Science.gov

Sample records for global model ginfors

  1. Global Atmospheric Aerosol Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Johannes; Aquila, Valentina; Righi, Mattia

    2012-01-01

    Global aerosol models are used to study the distribution and properties of atmospheric aerosol particles as well as their effects on clouds, atmospheric chemistry, radiation, and climate. The present article provides an overview of the basic concepts of global atmospheric aerosol modeling and shows some examples from a global aerosol simulation. Particular emphasis is placed on the simulation of aerosol particles and their effects within global climate models.

  2. Global ice sheet modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Hughes, T.J.; Fastook, J.L.

    1994-05-01

    The University of Maine conducted this study for Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate modeling task for site characterization of the potential nuclear waste respository site at Yucca Mountain, NV. The purpose of the study was to develop a global ice sheet dynamics model that will forecast the three-dimensional configuration of global ice sheets for specific climate change scenarios. The objective of the third (final) year of the work was to produce ice sheet data for glaciation scenarios covering the next 100,000 years. This was accomplished using both the map-plane and flowband solutions of our time-dependent, finite-element gridpoint model. The theory and equations used to develop the ice sheet models are presented. Three future scenarios were simulated by the model and results are discussed.

  3. Global Hail Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, A.; Sanderson, M.; Hand, W.; Blyth, A.; Groenemeijer, P.; Kunz, M.; Puskeiler, M.; Saville, G.; Michel, G.

    2012-04-01

    Hail risk models are rare for the insurance industry. This is opposed to the fact that average annual hail losses can be large and hail dominates losses for many motor portfolios worldwide. Insufficient observational data, high spatio-temporal variability and data inhomogenity have hindered creation of credible models so far. In January 2012, a selected group of hail experts met at Willis in London in order to discuss ways to model hail risk at various scales. Discussions aimed at improving our understanding of hail occurrence and severity, and covered recent progress in the understanding of microphysical processes and climatological behaviour and hail vulnerability. The final outcome of the meeting was the formation of a global hail risk model initiative and the launch of a realistic global hail model in order to assess hail loss occurrence and severities for the globe. The following projects will be tackled: Microphysics of Hail and hail severity measures: Understand the physical drivers of hail and hailstone size development in different regions on the globe. Proposed factors include updraft and supercooled liquid water content in the troposphere. What are the thresholds drivers of hail formation around the globe? Hail Climatology: Consider ways to build a realistic global climatological set of hail events based on physical parameters including spatial variations in total availability of moisture, aerosols, among others, and using neural networks. Vulnerability, Exposure, and financial model: Use historical losses and event footprints available in the insurance market to approximate fragility distributions and damage potential for various hail sizes for property, motor, and agricultural business. Propagate uncertainty distributions and consider effects of policy conditions along with aggregating and disaggregating exposure and losses. This presentation provides an overview of ideas and tasks that lead towards a comprehensive global understanding of hail risk for

  4. Global Core Plasma Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, Dennis L.; Craven, P. D.; Comfort, R. H.

    1999-01-01

    Abstract. The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) provides, empirically derived, core plasma density as a function of geomagnetic and solar conditions throughout the inner magnetosphere. It is continuous in value and gradient and is composed of separate models for the ionosphere, the plasmasphere, the plasmapause, the trough, and the polar cap. The relative composition of plasmaspheric H+, He+, and O+ is included in the GCPM. A blunt plasmaspheric bulge and rotation of the bulge with changing geomagnetic conditions is included. The GCPM is an amalgam of density models, intended to serve as a framework for continued improvement as new measurements become available and are used to characterize core plasma density, composition, and temperature.

  5. Global Energy Futures Model

    SciTech Connect

    Malczynski, Leonard; Baker, Arnold; Beyeler, Walt; Conrad, Stephen; Harris, David; Harris, Paul; Rexroth, Paul; Bixler, and Nathan

    2004-01-01

    The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 13 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOE/EIA/IEO 2002 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of what ir scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

  6. The Global Flood Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  7. Global Volcano Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sparks, R. S. J.; Loughlin, S. C.; Cottrell, E.; Valentine, G.; Newhall, C.; Jolly, G.; Papale, P.; Takarada, S.; Crosweller, S.; Nayembil, M.; Arora, B.; Lowndes, J.; Connor, C.; Eichelberger, J.; Nadim, F.; Smolka, A.; Michel, G.; Muir-Wood, R.; Horwell, C.

    2012-04-01

    Over 600 million people live close enough to active volcanoes to be affected when they erupt. Volcanic eruptions cause loss of life, significant economic losses and severe disruption to people's lives, as highlighted by the recent eruption of Mount Merapi in Indonesia. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in 2010 illustrated the potential of even small eruptions to have major impact on the modern world through disruption of complex critical infrastructure and business. The effects in the developing world on economic growth and development can be severe. There is evidence that large eruptions can cause a change in the earth's climate for several years afterwards. Aside from meteor impact and possibly an extreme solar event, very large magnitude explosive volcanic eruptions may be the only natural hazard that could cause a global catastrophe. GVM is a growing international collaboration that aims to create a sustainable, accessible information platform on volcanic hazard and risk. We are designing and developing an integrated database system of volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure with internationally agreed metadata standards. GVM will establish methodologies for analysis of the data (eg vulnerability indices) to inform risk assessment, develop complementary hazards models and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. GVM will develop the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. NERC is funding the start-up of this initiative for three years from November 2011. GVM builds directly on the VOGRIPA project started as part of the GRIP (Global Risk Identification Programme) in 2004 under the auspices of the World Bank and UN. Major international initiatives and partners such as the Smithsonian Institution - Global Volcanism Program, State University of New York at Buffalo - VHub, Earth Observatory of Singapore - WOVOdat and many others underpin GVM.

  8. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model that links the world's energy, agriculture and land use systems with a climate model. The model is designed to assess various climate change policies and technology strategies for the globe over long tim...

  9. Global/Local Dynamic Models

    SciTech Connect

    Pfeffer, A; Das, S; Lawless, D; Ng, B

    2006-10-10

    Many dynamic systems involve a number of entities that are largely independent of each other but interact with each other via a subset of state variables. We present global/local dynamic models (GLDMs) to capture these kinds of systems. In a GLDM, the state of an entity is decomposed into a globally influenced state that depends on other entities, and a locally influenced state that depends only on the entity itself. We present an inference algorithm for GLDMs called global/local particle filtering, that introduces the principle of reasoning globally about global dynamics and locally about local dynamics. We have applied GLDMs to an asymmetric urban warfare environment, in which enemy units form teams to attack important targets, and the task is to detect such teams as they form. Experimental results for this application show that global/local particle filtering outperforms ordinary particle filtering and factored particle filtering.

  10. Updating Martin's global extinction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillespie, Richard

    2008-12-01

    Australia has been cited as a weak link in anthropogenic models of megafauna extinction, but recent work suggests instead that the evidence for rapid extinction shortly after human arrival is robust. The global model is revisited, based on the contention that late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions took place rapidly on islands, and some islands (such as Australia and the Americas) are much larger than others. Modern dating methods are increasingly able to refine chronologies, and careful scrutiny suggests that hundreds of dates should be deleted from archives. An updated summary of results from New Zealand, North America and Australia is presented, with a brief discussion on why temperate refugia offering protection from climate change ultimately did not work, strongly supporting the global extinction hypothesis pioneered by Paul Martin.

  11. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

  12. A Martian global groundwater model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howard, Alan D.

    1991-01-01

    A global groundwater flow model was constructed for Mars to study hydrologic response under a variety of scenarios, improving and extending earlier simple cross sectional models. The model is capable of treating both steady state and transient flow as well as permeability that is anisotropic in the horizontal dimensions. A single near surface confining layer may be included (representing in these simulations a coherent permafrost layer). Furthermore, in unconfined flow, locations of complete saturation and seepage are determined. The flow model assumes that groundwater gradients are sufficiently low that DuPuit conditions are satisfied and the flow component perpendicular to the ground surface is negligible. The flow equations were solved using a finite difference method employing 10 deg spacing of latitude and longitude.

  13. A global HMX decomposition model

    SciTech Connect

    Hobbs, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    HMX (octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine) decomposes by competing reaction pathways to form various condensed and gas-phase intermediate and final products. Gas formation is related to the development of nonuniform porosity and high specific surface areas prior to ignition in cookoff events. Such thermal damage enhances shock sensitivity and favors self-supported accelerated burning. The extent of HMX decomposition in highly confined cookoff experiments remains a major unsolved experimental and modeling problem. The present work is directed at determination of global HMX kinetics useful for predicting the elapsed time to thermal runaway (ignition) and the extent of decomposition at ignition. Kinetic rate constants for a six step engineering based global mechanism were obtained using gas formation rates measured by Behrens at Sandia National Laboratories with his Simultaneous Modulated Beam Mass Spectrometer (STMBMS) experimental apparatus. The six step global mechanism includes competition between light gas (H[sub 2]Awe, HCN, CO, H[sub 2]CO, NO, N[sub 2]Awe) and heavy gas (C[sub 2]H[sub 6]N[sub 2]Awe and C[sub 4]H[sub 10]N0[sub 2]) formation with zero order sublimation of HMX and the mononitroso analog of HMX (mn-HMX), C[sub 4]H[sub 8]N[sub 8]Awe[sub 7]. The global mechanism was applied to the highly confined, One Dimensional Time to eXplosion (ODTX) experiment and hot cell experiments by suppressing the sublimation of HMX and mn-HMX. An additional gas-phase reaction was also included to account for the gas-phase reaction of N[sub 2]Awe with H[sub 2]CO. Predictions compare adequately to the STMBMS data, ODTX data, and hot cell data. Deficiencies in the model and future directions are discussed.

  14. Global communications network modeling tools

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Marc A.; Baraniuk, Steven P.

    The authors are developing a list of requirements for a general computer-aided engineering tool which will support the design and evaluation of global communications networks into the next decade. The target applications of this tool include simulating the operation of large C3I networks, including both terrestrial and space segments. Hierarchical modeling and specification strategies, based on those in OPNET, will be the core of the tool architecture. A key modeling requirement is the determination of link closure, based on node dynamics and orientation. Specification of satellite orbits will be based on the six classical orbital elements, and will feature graphical feedback in the form of azimuth/elevation plots. Detailed terrestrial scenario specification will be supported, including the deployment of fixed ground, mobile ground, and airborne nodes. Decision support features will generate graphical views of node and network variables, including availability plots and connectivity maps.

  15. Modeling the global mercury cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Hudson, R.J.M. |

    1995-12-01

    A model of the global Hg cycle is presented and applied to analyze modern Hg budgets and the link between the anthropogenic Hg emissions and historical changes in deposition as recorded in lake sediments and bogs. Terrestrial systems appear to have been the principal sink of anthropogenic Hg. However, transport into the ocean interior via mixing and scavenging is also a significant sink of Hg and likely has limited any anthropogenically-derived increase in Hg volatilization from the surface ocean to no more than 50% above natural levels. We also consider how both the increase in air pollutants during the industrial era and their recent decrease in North America may have affected atmospheric Hg scavenging and the resulting records of Hg deposition rates in lake and bog sediments.

  16. Aerosol Modeling for the Global Model Initiative

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weisenstein, Debra K.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project is to develop an aerosol module to be used within the framework of the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI). The model development work will be preformed jointly by the University of Michigan and AER, using existing aerosol models at the two institutions as starting points. The GMI aerosol model will be tested, evaluated against observations, and then applied to assessment of the effects of aircraft sulfur emissions as needed by the NASA Subsonic Assessment in 2001. The work includes the following tasks: 1. Implementation of the sulfur cycle within GMI, including sources, sinks, and aqueous conversion of sulfur. Aerosol modules will be added as they are developed and the GMI schedule permits. 2. Addition of aerosol types other than sulfate particles, including dust, soot, organic carbon, and black carbon. 3. Development of new and more efficient parameterizations for treating sulfate aerosol nucleation, condensation, and coagulation among different particle sizes and types.

  17. A Global Climate Model for Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burt, James E.

    This paper describes a simple global climate model useful in a freshman or sophomore level course in climatology. There are three parts to the paper. The first part describes the model, which is a global model of surface air temperature averaged over latitude and longitude. Samples of the types of calculations performed in the model are provided.…

  18. Exogenous model of global tectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalenda, Pavel; Wandrol, Ivo; Kopf, Tomáš; Frydrýšek, Karel; Neumann, Libor; Procházka, Václav; Ostřihanský, Lubor

    2014-05-01

    We present a new model of lithosphere-plates movement based on three pillars: 1) The thermoelastic wave, which was described first of all by Berger (1975), 2) The ratcheting mechanism, which was described for asphalt buckling and/or lithosphere evolution by J. Croll (2006, 2007), and 3) the solar irradiance energy, as quantified by IPCC (2007). The thermal wave, which is generated by solar irradiance on the surface, penetrates into depth, and subsurface rocks are expanded. The deformation spreads to the surrounding of expanded rocks and to the depths. Such elastic wave is called thermoelastic wave and has dominant periods of one day, one year, (short) climate periods (AMO, PDO and other oscillations), Milankovich periods (14000 - 120000 years) and longer climate periods. This deformation concerns prevalently the continental lithosphere and not lithosphere covered by ocean or thick layers of unconsolidated sediments. This non-uniform deformation of continental and/or oceanic plates leads to opening of the cracks, faults and/or rifts during the period of continental contraction. The ratchets can fulfil such free spaces and openings. During the next period of continental expansion, such faults, cracks or rifts cannot reach the same positions as before, which leads to increasing stress, which accumulates on the discontinuities especially between continental and oceanic crust (Kalenda et al. 2012). Such process can accumulate a portion of the solar energy reaching the solid surface rocks. Then we can explain the whole energy budget of seismic and volcanic activity (1022 J/year) only by solar irradiance. Only 4 % of total solar irradiance of the Earth's surface (1024 J/year) is enough to cover all budget of lithosphere plate movement. No other resources are necessary. Because this new model of the lithosphere plate movement is not accepted at that moment by the mainstream, it is necessary to publish it in the section Geoethics, as a one of the examples of the behaviour

  19. A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Alaminos, David; del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

    2016-01-01

    The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy. PMID:27880810

  20. A model of global net ecosystem production

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, C.S.; Matson, P.A. ); Field, C.B.; Randerson, J. ); Vitousek, P.M.; Mooney, H.A. )

    1993-06-01

    We present an ecosystem modeling approach to resolve global climate and edaphic controls on seasonal NEP patterns. Global remote sensing, climate and land surface data sets are used as inputs to drive a terrestrial carbon cycle model at 1[degrees]lat/lon resolution. monthly net primary productivity (NPP) is calculated using surface radiation and NDVI to determine photosynthesis, which is subsequently adjusted by temperature, water and nitrogen stress factors. Total nitrogen availability is coupled to net mineralization rates from litter soil carbon pools. Soil respiration and NPP balance one another globally at around 60 Gt C yr[sup [minus]1]. The seasonal amplitude of global NEP is 1.2 Gt C. Although substantial month-to-month variation is observed for tropical forest areas, seasonal amplitude is driven globally by boreal and temperate forest ecosystems between 650 and 30[degrees] N latitude.

  1. Global MHD Models of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suess, S. T.; Rose, Franklin (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona are computationally intensive, numerically complex simulations that have produced important new results over the past few years. After a brief overview of how these models usually work, I will address three topics: (1) How these models are now routinely used to predict the morphology of the corona and analyze Earth and space-based remote observations of the Sun; (2) The direct application of these models to the analysis of physical processes in the corona and chromosphere and to the interpretation of in situ solar wind observations; and (3) The use of results from global models to validate the approximations used to make detailed studies of physical processes in the corona that are not otherwise possible using the global models themselves.

  2. Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2012-01-01

    A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

  3. Modeling of global surface air temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusakova, M. A.; Karlin, L. N.

    2012-04-01

    A model to assess a number of factors, such as total solar irradiance, albedo, greenhouse gases and water vapor, affecting climate change has been developed on the basis of Earth's radiation balance principle. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere was investigated. It's a common knowledge, that part of the incoming radiation is reflected into space from the atmosphere, land and water surfaces, and another part is absorbed by the Earth's surface. Some part of outdoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) and water vapor. Making use of the regression analysis a correlation between concentration of greenhouse gases, water vapor and global surface air temperature was obtained which, it is turn, made it possible to develop the proposed model. The model showed that even smallest fluctuations of total solar irradiance intensify both positive and negative feedback which give rise to considerable changes in global surface air temperature. The model was used both to reconstruct the global surface air temperature for the 1981-2005 period and to predict global surface air temperature until 2030. The reconstructions of global surface air temperature for 1981-2005 showed the models validity. The model makes it possible to assess contribution of the factors listed above in climate change.

  4. Global Magnetospheric Modeling of 3D Reconnection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spicer, Daniel S.

    1999-01-01

    A review of approaches to the global modeling of the terrestrial magnetosphere, how these approaches are utilized to interpret satellite data, and how these approaches have been successful at predicting magnetospheric phenomena will be presented. In addition, the importance of the ionospheric boundary and its effect on the globally topology of the magnetospheric magnetic field will be reviewed. In particular, numerical results that are rapidly changing our view of magnetospheric reconnection within the magnetospheric magnetic field will be discussed.

  5. The Global Earthquake Model - Past, Present, Future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, Anselm; Schneider, John; Stein, Ross

    2014-05-01

    The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a unique collaborative effort that aims to provide organizations and individuals with tools and resources for transparent assessment of earthquake risk anywhere in the world. By pooling data, knowledge and people, GEM acts as an international forum for collaboration and exchange. Sharing of data and risk information, best practices, and approaches across the globe are key to assessing risk more effectively. Through consortium driven global projects, open-source IT development and collaborations with more than 10 regions, leading experts are developing unique global datasets, best practice, open tools and models for seismic hazard and risk assessment. The year 2013 has seen the completion of ten global data sets or components addressing various aspects of earthquake hazard and risk, as well as two GEM-related, but independently managed regional projects SHARE and EMME. Notably, the International Seismological Centre (ISC) led the development of a new ISC-GEM global instrumental earthquake catalogue, which was made publicly available in early 2013. It has set a new standard for global earthquake catalogues and has found widespread acceptance and application in the global earthquake community. By the end of 2014, GEM's OpenQuake computational platform will provide the OpenQuake hazard/risk assessment software and integrate all GEM data and information products. The public release of OpenQuake is planned for the end of this 2014, and will comprise the following datasets and models: • ISC-GEM Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (released January 2013) • Global Earthquake History Catalogue [1000-1903] • Global Geodetic Strain Rate Database and ModelGlobal Active Fault Database • Tectonic Regionalisation ModelGlobal Exposure Database • Buildings and Population Database • Earthquake Consequences Database • Physical Vulnerabilities Database • Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Resilience Indicators • Seismic

  6. Modeling Global Biogenic Emission of Isoprene: Exploration of Model Drivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, Susan E.; Potter, Christopher S.; Coughlan, Joseph C.; Klooster, Steven A.; Lerdau, Manuel T.; Chatfield, Robert B.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Vegetation provides the major source of isoprene emission to the atmosphere. We present a modeling approach to estimate global biogenic isoprene emission. The isoprene flux model is linked to a process-based computer simulation model of biogenic trace-gas fluxes that operates on scales that link regional and global data sets and ecosystem nutrient transformations Isoprene emission estimates are determined from estimates of ecosystem specific biomass, emission factors, and algorithms based on light and temperature. Our approach differs from an existing modeling framework by including the process-based global model for terrestrial ecosystem production, satellite derived ecosystem classification, and isoprene emission measurements from a tropical deciduous forest. We explore the sensitivity of model estimates to input parameters. The resulting emission products from the global 1 degree x 1 degree coverage provided by the satellite datasets and the process model allow flux estimations across large spatial scales and enable direct linkage to atmospheric models of trace-gas transport and transformation.

  7. Frequently asked questions about global modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Letellier, Christophe; Aguirre, Luis A.; Freitas, U. S.

    2009-06-01

    When a global model is attempted from experimental data, some preprocessing might be required. Therefore it is only natural to wonder what kind of effects the preprocessing might have on the modeling procedure. This concern is manifested in the form of recurrent frequently asked questions, such as "how does the preprocessing affect the underlying dynamics?" This paper aims at providing answers to important questions related to (i) data interpolation, (ii) data smoothing, (iii) data-estimated derivatives, (iv) model structure selection, and (v) model validation. The answers provided will hopefully remove some of those doubts and one shall be more confident not only on global modeling but also on various data analyses which may be also dependent on data preprocessing.

  8. Global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, C. C.

    1983-01-01

    A global MHD model of the earth's magnetosphere is defined. An introduction to numerical methods for solving the MHD equations is given with emphasis on the shock-capturing technique. Finally, results concerning the shape of the magnetosphere and the plasma flows inside the magnetosphere are presented.

  9. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Volume Three. Documentation on the Government's Global Sectoral Models: The Government's "Global Model."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barney, Gerald O., Ed.

    The third volume of the Global 2000 study presents basic information ("documentation") on the long-term sectoral models used by the U.S. government to project global trends in population, resources, and the environment. Its threefold purposes are: (1) to present all this basic information in a single volume, (2) to provide an…

  10. Global model of the Gran Telescopio Canarias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro Lopez-Tarruella, F. Javier; Fernandez Ibarz, Jose M.

    2002-07-01

    During the conceptual design of the GTC (Gran Telescopio Canarias) it was suggested to develop a Global Model of the behaviour of the GTC system to be used as a tool for the system engineering. This Global Model should be a dynamical simulation capable to predict the pointing, tracking, guiding and image quality of the GTC system in several simulation scenarios depending on the behavior of each subsystem. It was decided to develop the simulation in the Matlab/Simulink« environment. The kernel of the Global Model was a Simulink® model of the telescope mechanics. The model included the structural dynamics, control loops of the main axis (azimuth, elevation and rotators), and load models (wind, gravity, seism). Each component included error sources inherent to it (cogging and ripple on motors, encoding errors, bearing run-out, etc). The model permitted large rotations in elevation axis, which was necessary to test pointing performances. A specific simulation was developed within the project office for the analysis of the image quality of the optical system. It includes polishing defects of the optical surfaces (M1 segments, M2 and M3), low spatial frequency distortions of the optical surfaces (due to fabrication, gravity of instability) and misalignment between the primary mirror segments.

  11. Global health promotion models: enlightenment or entrapment?

    PubMed

    Whitelaw, S; McKeown, K; Williams, J

    1997-12-01

    This paper suggests that there is a tendency for health promotion to be located within models that consider health to be a product of a range of forces, with practice itself assumed to comprise a similarly wide range of activities. This paper develops a critique of this tendency that is essentially accommodating, all embracing and 'neutral'. It is argued that this leads to the masking of tensions between the conflicting values contained within the different elements of the models. We suggest that for health promoters, this is neither conceptually appropriate nor practically sensible. These notions are developed in five main stages. We start by defining some of the key concepts in the piece, e.g. the nature of a 'model' and examples of 'global' models. We then examine some of the general reasons why global models are favoured, with respect to the emergence of the UK's strategy for health, The Health of the Nation. The third stage of the discussion identifies and considers, within the British context, professional and governmental factors perceived to have driven this choice. The fourth aspect of the paper will introduce a critique of the use of global modelling. The paper concludes by critically questioning this evolving relationship, and suggests that it will be essentially conservative and unproductive. We end by reviewing the implications for practice and suggesting a useful way forward.

  12. Global nuclear material flow/control model

    SciTech Connect

    Dreicer, J.S.; Rutherford, D.S.; Fasel, P.K.; Riese, J.M.

    1997-10-01

    This is the final report of a two-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The nuclear danger can be reduced by a system for global management, protection, control, and accounting as part of an international regime for nuclear materials. The development of an international fissile material management and control regime requires conceptual research supported by an analytical and modeling tool which treats the nuclear fuel cycle as a complete system. The prototype model developed visually represents the fundamental data, information, and capabilities related to the nuclear fuel cycle in a framework supportive of national or an international perspective. This includes an assessment of the global distribution of military and civilian fissile material inventories, a representation of the proliferation pertinent physical processes, facility specific geographic identification, and the capability to estimate resource requirements for the management and control of nuclear material. The model establishes the foundation for evaluating the global production, disposition, and safeguards and security requirements for fissile nuclear material and supports the development of other pertinent algorithmic capabilities necessary to undertake further global nuclear material related studies.

  13. Modeling Coccolithophores in the Global Oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, W.

    2006-12-01

    Coccolithophores are important ecological and geochemical components of the global oceans. A global three- dimensional model was used to simulate their distributions in a multi-phytoplankton context. The realism of the simulation was supported by comparisons of model surface nutrients and total chlorophyll with in situ and satellite observations. Nitrate, silica, and dissolved iron surface distributions were positively correlated with in situ data across major oceanographic basins. Global annual departures were +18.9% for nitrate (model high), +5.4% for silica, and +45.0% for iron. Total surface chlorophyll was also positively correlated with satellite and in situ data sets across major basins. Global annual departures were -8.0% with SeaWiFS (model low), +1.1% with Aqua, and -17.1% with in situ data. Global annual primary production estimates were within 1% and 9% of estimates derived from SeaWiFS and Aqua, respectively, using a common primary production algorithm. Coccolithophore annual mean relative abundances were 2.6% lower than observations, but were positively correlated across basins. Two of the other three phytoplankton groups, diatoms and cyanobacteria, were also positively correlated with observations. Distributions of coccolithophores were dependent upon interactions and competition with the other phytoplankton groups. In this model coccolithophores had a competitive advantage over diatoms and chlorophytes by virtue of a greater ability to utilize nutrients and light at low values. However, their higher sinking rates placed them at a disadvantage when nutrients and light were plentiful. In very low nutrient conditions, such as the mid-ocean gyres, coccolithophores were unable to compete with the efficient nutrient utilization capability and low sinking rate of cyanobacteria. Comparisons of simulated coccolithophore distributions with satellite-derived estimates of calcite concentration and coccolithophore blooms showed some agreement, but also areas of

  14. Modeling coccolithophores in the global oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

    2007-03-01

    Coccolithophores are important ecological and geochemical components of the global oceans. A global three-dimensional model was used to simulate their distributions in a multi-phytoplankton context. The realism of the simulation was supported by comparisons of model surface nutrients and total chlorophyll with in situ and satellite observations. Nitrate, silica, and dissolved iron surface distributions were positively correlated with in situ data across major oceanographic basins. Global annual departures were +18.9% for nitrate (model high), +5.4% for silica, and +45.0% for iron. Total surface chlorophyll was also positively correlated with satellite and in situ data sets across major basins. Global annual departures were -8.0% with Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) (model low), +1.1% with Aqua, and -17.1% with in situ data. Global annual primary production estimates were within 1% and 9% of estimates derived from SeaWiFS and Aqua, respectively, using a common primary production algorithm. Coccolithophore annual mean relative abundances were 2.6% lower than observations, but were positively correlated across basins. Two of the other three phytoplankton groups, diatoms and cyanobacteria, were also positively correlated with observations. Distributions of coccolithophores were dependent upon interactions and competition with the other phytoplankton groups. In this model, coccolithophores had a competitive advantage over diatoms and chlorophytes by virtue of a greater ability to utilize nutrients and light at low values. However, their higher sinking rates placed them at a disadvantage when nutrients and light were plentiful. In very low nutrient conditions, such as the mid-ocean gyres, coccolithophores were unable to compete with the efficient nutrient utilization capability and low sinking rate of cyanobacteria. Comparisons of simulated coccolithophore distributions with satellite-derived estimates of calcite concentration and coccolithophore blooms

  15. Global Optimization Ensemble Model for Classification Methods

    PubMed Central

    Anwar, Hina; Qamar, Usman; Muzaffar Qureshi, Abdul Wahab

    2014-01-01

    Supervised learning is the process of data mining for deducing rules from training datasets. A broad array of supervised learning algorithms exists, every one of them with its own advantages and drawbacks. There are some basic issues that affect the accuracy of classifier while solving a supervised learning problem, like bias-variance tradeoff, dimensionality of input space, and noise in the input data space. All these problems affect the accuracy of classifier and are the reason that there is no global optimal method for classification. There is not any generalized improvement method that can increase the accuracy of any classifier while addressing all the problems stated above. This paper proposes a global optimization ensemble model for classification methods (GMC) that can improve the overall accuracy for supervised learning problems. The experimental results on various public datasets showed that the proposed model improved the accuracy of the classification models from 1% to 30% depending upon the algorithm complexity. PMID:24883382

  16. Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

    1997-01-01

    The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

  17. Global modelling of Cryptosporidium in surface water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeulen, Lucie; Hofstra, Nynke

    2016-04-01

    Introduction Waterborne pathogens that cause diarrhoea, such as Cryptosporidium, pose a health risk all over the world. In many regions quantitative information on pathogens in surface water is unavailable. Our main objective is to model Cryptosporidium concentrations in surface waters worldwide. We present the GloWPa-Crypto model and use the model in a scenario analysis. A first exploration of global Cryptosporidium emissions to surface waters has been published by Hofstra et al. (2013). Further work has focused on modelling emissions of Cryptosporidium and Rotavirus to surface waters from human sources (Vermeulen et al 2015, Kiulia et al 2015). A global waterborne pathogen model can provide valuable insights by (1) providing quantitative information on pathogen levels in data-sparse regions, (2) identifying pathogen hotspots, (3) enabling future projections under global change scenarios and (4) supporting decision making. Material and Methods GloWPa-Crypto runs on a monthly time step and represents conditions for approximately the year 2010. The spatial resolution is a 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude x longitude grid for the world. We use livestock maps (http://livestock.geo-wiki.org/) combined with literature estimates to calculate spatially explicit livestock Cryptosporidium emissions. For human Cryptosporidium emissions, we use UN population estimates, the WHO/UNICEF JMP sanitation country data and literature estimates of wastewater treatment. We combine our emissions model with a river routing model and data from the VIC hydrological model (http://vic.readthedocs.org/en/master/) to calculate concentrations in surface water. Cryptosporidium survival during transport depends on UV radiation and water temperature. We explore pathogen emissions and concentrations in 2050 with the new Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) 1 and 3. These scenarios describe plausible future trends in demographics, economic development and the degree of global integration. Results and

  18. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2014-05-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolution. In this study we present a global scale groundwater model (run at 6' as dynamic steady state) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The aquifer schematization and properties were based on available global datasets of lithology and transmissivities combined with estimated aquifer thickness of an upper unconfined aquifer. The model is forced with outputs from the land-surface model PCR-GLOBWB, specifically with net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed variation in saturated conductivity causes most of the groundwater level variations. Simulated groundwater heads were validated against reported piezometer observations. The validation showed that groundwater depths are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional scale groundwater patterns and flowpaths confirm the relevance of taking lateral groundwater flow into account in GHMs. Flowpaths show inter-basin groundwater flow that can be a significant part of a basins water budget and helps to sustain river baseflow, explicitly during times of droughts. Also important aquifer systems are recharged by inter-basin groundwater flows that positively affect water

  19. Global geospace modeling: Tutorial and review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raeder, J.

    The global modeling of geospace, that is, the magnetosphereionosphere-thermosphere system began about 20 years ago with the first simple MHD models of the solar wind magnetosphere interaction (Leboeuf et al., 1978; Lyon et al., 1981). It is thus a relatively young discipline compared to, for example, the modeling of the atmosphere. However, over this comparatively short period enourmous progress has been made. While the first models were two-dimensional, it was soon realized that the magnetosphere is intrinsically threedimensional, and three-dimensional models appeared soon thereafter (Brecht et al., 1982; Ogino, 1986). The next big step was the inclusion of electrodynamic ionosphere models that provided the closure of field aligned currents (FACs) and the connection between magnetospheric and ionospheric convection (Fedder and Lyon, 1987; Janhunen et al., 1995; Raeder, 1995; Raeder et al., 1995; Tanaka, 1995). These model extensions followed the realization that the ionosphere might, at least in part, control magnetospheric convection, and thus the magnetospheric dynamics in general. At this stage, the models were largely used to reproduce the large scale magnetospheric morphology and to investigate basic physical processes. However, it was not clear whether or not the model results and the underlying assumptions of magnetohydrodynamics were even correct, although they seemed to give correct answers for some parameters, for example the bow shock and magnetopause standoff distance. The ISTP program brought the first direct comparisons of model results with in situ measurements (Fedder et al., 1995; Frank et al., 1995; Raeder et al., 1997). Since then there has been a flurry of model-data comparisons; too many to mention them all here. However, there have been several activities in which systematic comparisons were made, in particular the NSF/GEM convection challenge (see e.g. Lyons, 1998, and other articles in that issue) and the NSF/GEM substorm challenge (see e

  20. Global dynamic modeling of a transmission system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choy, F. K.; Qian, W.

    1993-01-01

    The work performed on global dynamic simulation and noise correlation of gear transmission systems at the University of Akron is outlined. The objective is to develop a comprehensive procedure to simulate the dynamics of the gear transmission system coupled with the effects of gear box vibrations. The developed numerical model is benchmarked with results from experimental tests at NASA Lewis Research Center. The modal synthesis approach is used to develop the global transient vibration analysis procedure used in the model. Modal dynamic characteristics of the rotor-gear-bearing system are calculated by the matrix transfer method while those of the gear box are evaluated by the finite element method (NASTRAN). A three-dimensional, axial-lateral coupled bearing model is used to couple the rotor vibrations with the gear box motion. The vibrations between the individual rotor systems are coupled through the nonlinear gear mesh interactions. The global equations of motion are solved in modal coordinates and the transient vibration of the system is evaluated by a variable time-stepping integration scheme. The relationship between housing vibration and resulting noise of the gear transmission system is generated by linear transfer functions using experimental data. A nonlinear relationship of the noise components to the fundamental mesh frequency is developed using the hypercoherence function. The numerically simulated vibrations and predicted noise of the gear transmission system are compared with the experimental results from the gear noise test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center. Results of the comparison indicate that the global dynamic model developed can accurately simulate the dynamics of a gear transmission system.

  1. Global Urbanization Modeling Supported by Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Smith, S.; Zhao, K.; Imhoff, M. L.; Thomson, A. M.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Elvidge, C.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization, one of the major human induced land cover and land use change, has profound impacts on the Earth system, and plays important roles in a variety of processes such as biodiversity loss, water and carbon cycle, and climate change. Accurate information on urban areas and their spatial distribution at the regional and global scales is important in both scientific and policy-making communities. The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime stable light data (NTL) provide a potential way to map urban area and its dynamics economically and timely. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the DMSP/OLS NTL data. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates the robustness of the derived optimal thresholds and the reliability of the cluster-based method. Compared to existing threshold techniques, our method reduces the over- and under-estimation issue, when mapping urban extent over a large area. Using this cluster-based method, we built new global maps of 1-km urban extent from the NTL data (Figure 1) and evaluated its temporal dynamics from 1992 to 2013. Supported by the derived global urban maps and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model and projected future urban expansion.

  2. Improving global health education: development of a Global Health Competency Model.

    PubMed

    Ablah, Elizabeth; Biberman, Dorothy A; Weist, Elizabeth M; Buekens, Pierre; Bentley, Margaret E; Burke, Donald; Finnegan, John R; Flahault, Antoine; Frenk, Julio; Gotsch, Audrey R; Klag, Michael J; Rodriguez Lopez, Mario Henry; Nasca, Philip; Shortell, Stephen; Spencer, Harrison C

    2014-03-01

    Although global health is a recommended content area for the future of education in public health, no standardized global health competency model existed for master-level public health students. Without such a competency model, academic institutions are challenged to ensure that students are able to demonstrate the knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSAs) needed for successful performance in today's global health workforce. The Association of Schools of Public Health (ASPH) sought to address this need by facilitating the development of a global health competency model through a multistage modified-Delphi process. Practitioners and academic global health experts provided leadership and guidance throughout the competency development process. The resulting product, the Global Health Competency Model 1.1, includes seven domains and 36 competencies. The Global Health Competency Model 1.1 provides a platform for engaging educators, students, and global health employers in discussion of the KSAs needed to improve human health on a global scale.

  3. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2008-05-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the-art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  4. Global modeling of fresh surface water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Eikelboom, T.; van Vliet, M. T.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Temperature determines a range of water physical properties, the solubility of oxygen and other gases and acts as a strong control on fresh water biogeochemistry, influencing chemical reaction rates, phytoplankton and zooplankton composition and the presence or absence of pathogens. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism, tolerance to parasites, diseases and pollution and life history. Compared to statistical approaches, physically-based models of surface water temperature have the advantage that they are robust in light of changes in flow regime, river morphology, radiation balance and upstream hydrology. Such models are therefore better suited for projecting the effects of global change on water temperature. Till now, physically-based models have only been applied to well-defined fresh water bodies of limited size (e.g., lakes or stream segments), where the numerous parameters can be measured or otherwise established, whereas attempts to model water temperature over larger scales has thus far been limited to regression type of models. Here, we present a first attempt to apply a physically-based model of global fresh surface water temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modelled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by short and long-wave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice-formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We used the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global fresh surface water temperature at daily time steps on a 0.5x0.5 degree grid for the period 1970-2000. Meteorological forcing was obtained from the CRU data set, downscaled to daily values with ECMWF

  5. GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS FOR AEROASSIST APPLICATIONS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duvall, Aleta; Justus, C. G.; Keller, Vernon W.

    2005-01-01

    Aeroassist is a broad category of advanced transportation technology encompassing aerocapture, aerobraking, aeroentry, precision landing, hazard detection and avoidance, and aerogravity assist. The eight destinations in the Solar System with sufficient atmosphere to enable aeroassist technology are Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for five of these targets - Earth, Mars, Titan, Neptune, and Venus - have been developed at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. These models are useful as tools in mission planning and systems analysis studies associated with aeroassist applications. The series of models is collectively named the Global Reference Atmospheric Model or GRAM series. An important capability of all the models in the GRAM series is their ability to simulate quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analysis in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, for aerothermal design, and for other applications sensitive to atmospheric variability. Recent example applications are discussed.

  6. A Substance Flow Model for Global Phosphorus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaccari, D. A.

    2015-12-01

    A system-based substance flow model (SFM) for phosphorus is developed based on the global phosphorus substance flow analysis (SFA) of Cordell et al (2009). The model is based strictly on mass balance considerations. It predicts the sensitivity of phosphorus consumption to various interventions intended to conserve reserves, as well as interactions among these efforts, allowing a comparison of their impacts on phosphorus demand. The interventions include control of phosphorus losses from soil erosion, food production and food waste, or phosphorus recycling such as from animal manure or human waste.

  7. Cooperative global security programs modeling & simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Briand, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    The national laboratories global security programs implement sustainable technical solutions for cooperative nonproliferation, arms control, and physical security systems worldwide. To help in the development and execution of these programs, a wide range of analytical tools are used to model, for example, synthetic tactical environments for assessing infrastructure protection initiatives and tactics, systematic approaches for prioritizing nuclear and biological threat reduction opportunities worldwide, and nuclear fuel cycle enrichment and spent fuel management for nuclear power countries. This presentation will describe how these models are used in analyses to support the Obama Administration's agenda and bilateral/multinational treaties, and ultimately, to reduce weapons of mass destruction and terrorism threats through international technical cooperation.

  8. Development of an Integrated Global Energy Model

    SciTech Connect

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1999-07-08

    The primary objective of this research was to develop a forefront analysis tool for application to enhance understanding of long-term, global, nuclear-energy and nuclear-material futures. To this end, an existing economics-energy-environmental (E{sup 3}) model was adopted, modified, and elaborated to examine this problem in a multi-regional (13), long-term ({approximately}2,100) context. The E{sup 3} model so developed was applied to create a Los Alamos presence in this E{sup 3} area through ''niche analyses'' that provide input to the formulation of policies dealing with and shaping of nuclear-energy and nuclear-materials futures. Results from analyses using the E{sup 3} model have been presented at a variety of national and international conferences and workshops. Through use of the E{sup 3} model Los Alamos was afforded the opportunity to participate in a multi-national E{sup 3} study team that is examining a range of global, long-term nuclear issues under the auspices of the IAEA during the 1998-99 period . Finally, the E{sup 3} model developed under this LDRD project is being used as an important component in more recent Nuclear Material Management Systems (NMMS) project.

  9. Global-scale modeling of groundwater recharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, P.; Fiedler, K.

    2007-11-01

    Long-term average groundwater recharge, which is equivalent to renewable groundwater resources, is the major limiting factor for the sustainable use of groundwater. Compared to surface water resources, groundwater resources are more protected from pollution, and their use is less restricted by seasonal and inter-annual flow variations. To support water management in a globalized world, it is necessary to estimate groundwater recharge at the global scale. Here, we present a best estimate of global-scale long-term average diffuse groundwater recharge (i.e. renewable groundwater resources) that has been calculated by the most recent version of the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model WGHM (spatial resolution of 0.5° by 0.5°, daily time steps). The estimate was obtained using two state-of-the art global data sets of gridded observed precipitation that we corrected for measurement errors, which also allowed to quantify the uncertainty due to these equally uncertain data sets. The standard WGHM groundwater recharge algorithm was modified for semi-arid and arid regions, based on independent estimates of diffuse groundwater recharge, which lead to an unbiased estimation of groundwater recharge in these regions. WGHM was tuned against observed long-term average river discharge at 1235 gauging stations by adjusting, individually for each basin, the partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration and total runoff. We estimate that global groundwater recharge was 12 666 km3/yr for the climate normal 1961-1990, i.e. 32% of total renewable water resources. In semi-arid and arid regions, mountainous regions, permafrost regions and in the Asian Monsoon region, groundwater recharge accounts for a lower fraction of total runoff, which makes these regions particularly vulnerable to seasonal and inter-annual precipitation variability and water pollution. Average per-capita renewable groundwater resources of countries vary between 8 m3/(capita yr) for Egypt to more than 1 million m3

  10. A hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boer, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    Satellite-based earth observation is providing an increasingly accurate picture of global fire patterns. The highest fire activity is observed in seasonally dry (sub-)tropical environments of South America, Africa and Australia, but fires occur with varying frequency, intensity and seasonality in almost all biomes on Earth. The particular combination of these fire characteristics, or fire regime, is known to emerge from the combined influences of climate, vegetation, terrain and land use, but has so far proven difficult to reproduce by global models. Uncertainty about the biophysical drivers and constraints that underlie current global fire patterns is propagated in model predictions of how ecosystems, fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles may respond to projected future climates. Here, I present a hydroclimatic model of global fire patterns that predicts the mean annual burned area fraction (F) of 0.25° x 0.25° grid cells as a function of the climatic water balance. Following Bradstock's four-switch model, long-term fire activity levels were assumed to be controlled by fuel productivity rates and the likelihood that the extant fuel is dry enough to burn. The frequency of ignitions and favourable fire weather were assumed to be non-limiting at long time scales. Fundamentally, fuel productivity and fuel dryness are a function of the local water and energy budgets available for the production and desiccation of plant biomass. The climatic water balance summarizes the simultaneous availability of biologically usable energy and water at a site, and may therefore be expected to explain a significant proportion of global variation in F. To capture the effect of the climatic water balance on fire activity I focused on the upper quantiles of F, i.e. the maximum level of fire activity for a given climatic water balance. Analysing GFED4 data for annual burned area together with gridded climate data, I found that nearly 80% of the global variation in the 0.99 quantile of F

  11. Progress in Global Multicompartmental Modelling of DDT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stemmler, I.; Lammel, G.

    2009-04-01

    Dichlorophenyltrichloroethane, DDT, and its major metabolite dichlorophenyldichloroethylene, DDE, are long-lived in the environment (persistent) and circulate since the 1950s. They accumulate along food chains, cause detrimental effects in marine and terrestrial wild life, and pose a hazard for human health. DDT was widely used as an insecticide in the past and is still in use in a number of tropical countries to combat vector borne diseases like malaria and typhus. It is a multicompartmental substance with only a small mass fraction residing in air. A global multicompartment chemistry transport model (MPI-MCTM; Semeena et al., 2006) is used to study the environmental distribution and fate of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT). For the first time a horizontally and vertically resolved global model was used to perform a long-term simulation of DDT and DDE. The model is based on general circulation models for the ocean (MPIOM; Marsland et al., 2003) and atmosphere (ECHAM5). In addition, an oceanic biogeochemistry model (HAMOCC5.1; Maier-Reimer et al., 2005 ) and a microphysical aerosol model (HAM; Stier et al., 2005 ) are included. Multicompartmental substances are cycling in atmosphere (3 phases), ocean (3 phases), top soil (3 phases), and vegetation surfaces. The model was run for 40 years forced with historical agricultural application data of 1950-1990. The model results show that the global environmental contamination started to decrease in air, soil and vegetation after the applications peaked in 1965-70. In some regions, however, the DDT mass had not yet reached a maximum in 1990 and was still accumulating mass until the end of the simulation. Modelled DDT and DDE concentrations in atmosphere, ocean and soil are evaluated by comparison with observational data. The evaluation of the model results indicate that degradation of DDE in air was underestimated. Also for DDT, the discrepancies between model results and observations are related to uncertainties of

  12. Inverse modeling of global atmospheric carbon dioxide by Global Eulerian-Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric Model (GELCA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shirai, T.; Ishizawa, M.; Zhuravlev, R.; Ganshin, A.; Belikov, D.; Saito, M.; Oda, T.; Valsala, V.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Tans, P. P.; Maksyutov, S. S.

    2013-12-01

    Global monthly CO2 flux distributions for 2001-2011 were estimated using an atmospheric inverse modeling system, which is based on combination of two transport models, called GELCA (Global Eulerian-Lagrangian Coupled Atmospheric model). This coupled model approach has several advantages over inversions to a single model alone: the use of Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) to simulate the transport in the vicinity of the observation points enables us to avoid numerical diffusion of Eulerian models, and is suitable to represent observations at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The global background concentration field generated by an Eulerian model is used as time-variant boundary conditions for an LPDM that performs backward simulations from each receptor point (observation event). In the GELCA inversion system, National Institute for Environmental Studies-Transport Model (NIES-TM) version 8.1i was used as an Eulerian global transport model coupled with FLEXPART version 8.0 as an LPDM. The meteorological fields for driving both models were taken from JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) with a spatial resolution of 1.25° x 1.25°, 40 vertical levels and a temporal resolution of 6 hours. Our prior CO2 fluxes consist of daily terrestrial biospheric fluxes, monthly oceanic fluxes, monthly biomass burning emissions, and monthly fossil fuel CO2 emissions. We employed a Kalman Smoother optimization technique with fixed lag of 3 months, estimating monthly CO2 fluxes for 42 land and 22 ocean regions. We have been using two different global networks of CO2 observations. The Observation Package (ObsPack) data products contain more measurement information in space and time than the NOAA global cooperative air sampling network which basically consists of approximately weekly sampling at background sites. The global total flux and its large-scale distribution optimized with two different global observation networks agreed overall with other previous

  13. Global Microscopic Models for Nuclear Reaction Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Goriely, S.

    2005-05-24

    Important effort has been devoted in the last decades to measuring reaction cross sections. Despite such effort, many nuclear applications still require the use of theoretical predictions to estimate experimentally unknown cross sections. Most of the nuclear ingredients in the calculations of reaction cross sections need to be extrapolated in an energy and/or mass domain out of reach of laboratory simulations. In addition, some applications often involve a large number of unstable nuclei, so that only global approaches can be used. For these reasons, when the nuclear ingredients to the reaction models cannot be determined from experimental data, it is highly recommended to consider preferentially microscopic or semi-microscopic global predictions based on sound and reliable nuclear models which, in turn, can compete with more phenomenological highly-parameterized models in the reproduction of experimental data. The latest developments made in deriving such microscopic models for practical applications are reviewed. It mainly concerns nuclear structure properties (masses, deformations, radii, etc.), level densities at the equilibrium deformation, {gamma}-ray strength, as well as fission barriers and level densities at the fission saddle points.

  14. A Global Model of Meteoric Sodium

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  15. A global model of meteoric sodium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Janches, Diego; Feng, Wuhu; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-10-01

    A global model of sodium in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere has been developed within the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The standard fully interactive WACCM chemistry module has been augmented with a chemistry scheme that includes nine neutral and ionized sodium species. Meteoric ablation provides the source of sodium in the model and is represented as a combination of a meteoroid input function (MIF) and a parameterized ablation model. The MIF provides the seasonally and latitudinally varying meteoric flux which is modeled taking into consideration the astronomical origins of sporadic meteors and considers variations in particle entry angle, velocity, mass, and the differential ablation of the chemical constituents. WACCM simulations show large variations in the sodium constituents over time scales from days to months. Seasonality of sodium constituents is strongly affected by variations in the MIF and transport via the mean meridional wind. In particular, the summer to winter hemisphere flow leads to the highest sodium species concentrations and loss rates occurring over the winter pole. In the Northern Hemisphere, this winter maximum can be dramatically affected by stratospheric sudden warmings. Simulations of the January 2009 major warming event show that it caused a short-term decrease in the sodium column over the polar cap that was followed by a factor of 3 increase in the following weeks. Overall, the modeled distribution of atomic sodium in WACCM agrees well with both ground-based and satellite observations. Given the strong sensitivity of the sodium layer to dynamical motions, reproducing its variability provides a stringent test of global models and should help to constrain key atmospheric variables in this poorly sampled region of the atmosphere.

  16. Mycorrhizal fungi and global land surface models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brzostek, E. R.; Fisher, J. B.; Shi, M.; Phillips, R.

    2013-12-01

    In the current generation of Land Surface Models (LSMs), the representation of coupled carbon (C) and nutrient cycles does not account for allocation of C by plants to mycorrhizal fungi in exchange for limiting nutrients. Given that the amount of C transferred to mycorrhizae can exceed 20% of net primary production (NPP), mycorrhizae can supply over half of the nitrogen (N) needed to support NPP, and that large majority of plants form associations with mycorrhizae; integrating these mechanisms into LSMs may significantly alter our understanding of the role of the terrestrial biosphere in mitigating climate change. Here, we present results from the integration of a mycorrhizal framework into a cutting-edge global plant nitrogen model -- Fixation & Uptake of Nitrogen (FUN; Fisher et al., 2010) -- that can be coupled into existing LSMs. In this mycorrhizal framework, the C cost of N acquisition varies as a function of mycorrhizal type with: (1) plants that support arbuscular mycorrhizae (AM) benefiting when N is plentiful and (2) plants that support ectomycorrhizae (ECM) benefiting when N is limiting. At the plot scale (15 x 15m), the My-FUN model improved predictions of retranslocation, N uptake, and the amount of C transferred into the soil relative to the base model across 45 plots that vary in mycorrhizal type in Indiana, USA. At the ecosystem scale, when we coupled this new framework into the Community Land Model (CLM-CN), the model estimated lower C uptake than the base model and more accurately predicted C uptake at the Morgan Monroe State Forest AmeriFlux site. These results suggest that the inclusion of a mycorrhizal framework into LSMs will enhance our ability to predict feedbacks between global change and the terrestrial biosphere.

  17. Global adjoint tomography: First-generation model

    SciTech Connect

    Bozdag, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen; Hill, Judith C.; Podhorszki, Norbert; Pugmire, David

    2016-09-22

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named ‘Titan’, a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used ‘crustal corrections’. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching

  18. Global adjoint tomography: First-generation model

    DOE PAGES

    Bozdag, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; ...

    2016-09-22

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named ‘Titan’, a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematicallymore » reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used ‘crustal corrections’. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ~30 s body-wave data with ~60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ~17 s body waves with ~45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching

  19. Global adjoint tomography: first-generation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozdağ, Ebru; Peter, Daniel; Lefebvre, Matthieu; Komatitsch, Dimitri; Tromp, Jeroen; Hill, Judith; Podhorszki, Norbert; Pugmire, David

    2016-12-01

    We present the first-generation global tomographic model constructed based on adjoint tomography, an iterative full-waveform inversion technique. Synthetic seismograms were calculated using GPU-accelerated spectral-element simulations of global seismic wave propagation, accommodating effects due to 3-D anelastic crust & mantle structure, topography & bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation, and self-gravitation. Fréchet derivatives were calculated in 3-D anelastic models based on an adjoint-state method. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 named `Titan', a computer with 18 688 GPU accelerators housed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The transversely isotropic global model is the result of 15 tomographic iterations, which systematically reduced differences between observed and simulated three-component seismograms. Our starting model combined 3-D mantle model S362ANI with 3-D crustal model Crust2.0. We simultaneously inverted for structure in the crust and mantle, thereby eliminating the need for widely used `crustal corrections'. We used data from 253 earthquakes in the magnitude range 5.8 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0. We started inversions by combining ˜30 s body-wave data with ˜60 s surface-wave data. The shortest period of the surface waves was gradually decreased, and in the last three iterations we combined ˜17 s body waves with ˜45 s surface waves. We started using 180 min long seismograms after the 12th iteration and assimilated minor- and major-arc body and surface waves. The 15th iteration model features enhancements of well-known slabs, an enhanced image of the Samoa/Tahiti plume, as well as various other plumes and hotspots, such as Caroline, Galapagos, Yellowstone and Erebus. Furthermore, we see clear improvements in slab resolution along the Hellenic and Japan Arcs, as well as subduction along the East of Scotia Plate, which does not exist in the starting model. Point-spread function tests demonstrate that we are approaching the resolution

  20. Global data sets - obtain the modeled global values

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2016-02-19

    On the ASDC web site home page , select " SSE ".  Select "Global Data".  Select ... the desired parameter.  Selecting the parameter name will bring up the data as text in a window, which you can copy and paste ... Selecting (compressed) to the right of the parameter name will allow you to save a compressed data file on your local machine. ...

  1. The EGM2008 Global Gravitational Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlis, N. K.; Holmes, S. A.; Kenyon, S. C.; Factor, J. K.

    2008-12-01

    The development of a new Earth Gravitational Model (EGM) to degree 2160 has been completed. This model, designated EGM2008, is the product of the final re-iteration of our modelling and estimation approach. Our multi-year effort has produced several Preliminary Gravitational Models (PGM) of increasingly improved performance. One of these models (PGM2007A) was provided for evaluation to an independent Evaluation Working Group, sponsored by the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). In an effort to address certain shortcomings of PGM2007A, we have considered the feedback that we received from this Working Group. As part of this effort, EGM2008 incorporates an improved version of our 5'x5' global gravity anomaly database and has benefited from the latest GRACE based satellite-only solutions (e.g., ITG- GRACE03S). EGM2008 incorporates an improved ocean-wide set of altimetry-derived gravity anomalies that were estimated using PGM2007B (a variant of PGM2007A) and its associated Dynamic Ocean Topography (DOT) model as reference models in a "Remove-Compute-Restore" fashion. For the Least Squares Collocation estimation of our final global 5'x5' area-mean gravity anomaly database, we have used consistently PGM2007B as our reference model to degree 2160. We have developed and used a formulation that predicts area-mean gravity anomalies that are effectively band-limited to degree 2160, thereby minimizing aliasing effects during the harmonic analysis process. We have also placed special emphasis on the refinement and "calibration" of the error estimates that accompany our final combination solution EGM2008. We present the main aspects of the model's development and evaluation. This evaluation was accomplished primarily through the comparison of various model derived quantities with independent data and models (e.g., geoid undulations derived from GPS positioning and spirit levelling, astronomical deflections of the vertical, etc.). We will also present comparisons of our

  2. Challenges in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko; Black, Tom

    2015-04-01

    ") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that are comparable to the scales of the dominant Rossby waves, such fictitious solutions are hard to identify and remove. Another new challenge on the global scale is that the limit of validity of the hydrostatic approximation is rapidly being approached. Having in mind the sensitivity of extended deterministic forecasts to small disturbances, we may need global non-hydrostatic models sooner than we think. The unified Non-hydrostatic Multi-scale Model (NMMB) that is being developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as a part of the new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) will be discussed as an example. The non-hydrostatic dynamics were designed in such a way as to avoid over-specification. The global version is run on the latitude-longitude grid, and the polar filter selectively slows down the waves that would otherwise be unstable. The model formulation has been successfully tested on various scales. A global forecasting system based on the NMMB has been run in order to test and tune the model. The skill of the medium range forecasts produced by the NMMB is comparable to that of other major medium range models. The computational efficiency of the global NMMB on parallel computers is good.

  3. Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

    2016-11-01

    Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) . To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) , which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

  4. Robust calibration of a global aerosol model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, L.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C.

    2013-12-01

    Comparison of models and observations is vital for evaluating how well computer models can simulate real world processes. However, many current methods are lacking in their assessment of the model uncertainty, which introduces questions regarding the robustness of the observationally constrained model. In most cases, models are evaluated against observations using a single baseline simulation considered to represent the models' best estimate. The model is then improved in some way so that its comparison to observations is improved. Continuous adjustments in such a way may result in a model that compares better to observations but there may be many compensating features which make prediction with the newly calibrated model difficult to justify. There may also be some model outputs whose comparison to observations becomes worse in some regions/seasons as others improve. In such cases calibration cannot be considered robust. We present details of the calibration of a global aerosol model, GLOMAP, in which we consider not just a single model setup but a perturbed physics ensemble with 28 uncertain parameters. We first quantify the uncertainty in various model outputs (CCN, CN) for the year 2008 and use statistical emulation to identify which of the 28 parameters contribute most to this uncertainty. We then compare the emulated model simulations in the entire parametric uncertainty space to observations. Regions where the entire ensemble lies outside the error of the observations indicate structural model error or gaps in current knowledge which allows us to target future research areas. Where there is some agreement with the observations we use the information on the sources of the model uncertainty to identify geographical regions in which the important parameters are similar. Identification of regional calibration clusters helps us to use information from observation rich regions to calibrate regions with sparse observations and allow us to make recommendations for

  5. A New Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kreemer, C. W.; Klein, E. C.; Blewitt, G.; Shen, Z.; Wang, M.; Chamot-Rooke, N. R.; Rabaute, A.

    2012-12-01

    As part of the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) effort to improve global seismic hazard models, we present a new global geodetic strain rate model. This model (GSRM v. 2) is a vast improvement on the previous model from 2004 (v. 1.2). The model is still based on a finite-element type approach and has deforming cells in between the assumed rigid plates. While v.1.2 contained ~25,000 deforming cells of 0.6° by 0.5° dimension, the new models contains >136,000 cells of 0.25° by 0.2° dimension. We redefined the geometries of the deforming zones based on the definitions of Bird (2003) and Chamot-Rooke and Rabaute (2006). We made some adjustments to the grid geometry at places where seismicity and/or GPS velocities suggested the presence of deforming areas where those previous studies did not. As a result, some plates/blocks identified by Bird (2003) we assumed to deform, and the total number of plates and blocks in GSRM v.2 is 38 (including the Bering block, which Bird (2003) did not consider). GSRM v.1.2 was based on ~5,200 GPS velocities, taken from 86 studies. The new model is based on ~17,000 GPS velocities, taken from 170 studies. The GPS velocity field consists of a 1) ~4900 velocities derived by us for CPS stations publicly available RINEX data and >3.5 years of data, 2) ~1200 velocities for China from a new analysis of all CMONOC data, and 3) velocities published in the literature or made otherwise available to us. All studies were combined into the same reference frame by a 6-parameter transformation using velocities at collocated stations. Because the goal of the project is to model the interseismic strain rate field, we model co-seismic jumps while estimating velocities, ignore periods of post-seismic deformation, and exclude time-series that reflect magmatic and anthropogenic activity. GPS velocities were used to estimate angular velocities for most of the 38 rigid plates and blocks (the rest being taken from the literature), and these were used as boundary

  6. Modelling the global tropospheric molecular hydrogen cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pieterse, G.

    2013-01-01

    show that the global tropospheric budget of H2 can be constrained quite well with available measurements. The study starts with the derivation of a full hydrogen isotope chemistry scheme to use the measured deuterium content in atmospheric H2 as an additional constraint for the global budget. This new chemistry scheme is subsequently evaluated and the most important parameters in the photochemistry are identified. A condensed version of the new chemistry scheme is implemented in the global TM5 model. The new model results are verified using available measurements of H2 mixing ratios and isotopic compositions from two global flask sampling networks and the EuroHydros network. Finally, a new tropospheric budget is derived for H2. The tropospheric burden is estimated at 165±8 Tg and the removal of H2 by deposition and photochemical oxidation are estimated at 53±4 and 23±2 Tg/yr, respectively. The main (photochemical) source is estimated at 37±4 Tg/yr. From these numbers, a tropospheric lifetime of 2.2±0.2 yr for H2 is derived. These new ranges of uncertainty allow for a much more accurate evaluation of the impact of future increases in H2 emissions on air quality and climate.

  7. A Global Magnetohydrodynamic Model of Jovian Magnetosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, Raymond J.; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The goal of this project was to develop a new global magnetohydrodynamic model of the interaction of the Jovian magnetosphere with the solar wind. Observations from 28 orbits of Jupiter by Galileo along with those from previous spacecraft at Jupiter, Pioneer 10 and 11, Voyager I and 2 and Ulysses, have revealed that the Jovian magnetosphere is a vast, complicated system. The Jovian aurora also has been monitored for several years. Like auroral observations at Earth, these measurements provide us with a global picture of magnetospheric dynamics. Despite this wide range of observations, we have limited quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and how it interacts with the solar wind. For the past several years we have been working toward a quantitative understanding of the Jovian magnetosphere and its interaction with the solar wind by employing global magnetohydrodynamic simulations to model the magnetosphere. Our model has been an explicit MHD code (previously used to model the Earth's magnetosphere) to study Jupiter's magnetosphere. We continue to obtain important insights with this code, but it suffers from some severe limitations. In particular with this code we are limited to considering the region outside of 15RJ, with cell sizes of about 1.5R(sub J). The problem arises because of the presence of widely separated time scales throughout the magnetosphere. The numerical stability criterion for explicit MHD codes is the CFL limit and is given by C(sub max)(Delta)t/(Delta)x less than 1 where C(sub max) is the maximum group velocity in a given cell, (Delta)x is the grid spacing and (Delta)t is the time step. If the maximum wave velocity is C(sub w) and the flow speed is C(sub f), C(sub max) = C(sub w) + C(sub f). Near Jupiter the Alfven wave speed becomes very large (it approaches the speed of light at one Jovian radius). Operating with this time step makes the calculation essentially intractable. Therefore under this funding we have been designing a

  8. Global embedding of fibre inflation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cicoli, Michele; Muia, Francesco; Shukla, Pramod

    2016-11-01

    We present concrete embeddings of fibre inflation models in globally consistent type IIB Calabi-Yau orientifolds with closed string moduli stabilisation. After performing a systematic search through the existing list of toric Calabi-Yau manifolds, we find several examples that reproduce the minimal setup to embed fibre inflation models. This involves Calabi-Yau manifolds with h 1,1 = 3 which are K3 fibrations over a ℙ1 base with an additional shrinkable rigid divisor. We then provide different consistent choices of the underlying brane set-up which generate a non-perturbative superpotential suitable for moduli stabilisation and string loop corrections with the correct form to drive inflation. For each Calabi-Yau orientifold setting, we also compute the effect of higher derivative contributions and study their influence on the inflationary dynamics.

  9. A global atmospheric model of meteoric iron

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Höffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-08-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  10. A Global Atmospheric Model of Meteoric Iron

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.; Janches, Diego; Hoffner, Josef; Yi, Fan; Plane, John M. C.

    2013-01-01

    The first global model of meteoric iron in the atmosphere (WACCM-Fe) has been developed by combining three components: the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), a description of the neutral and ion-molecule chemistry of iron in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT), and a treatment of the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere. The iron chemistry treats seven neutral and four ionized iron containing species with 30 neutral and ion-molecule reactions. The meteoric input function (MIF), which describes the injection of Fe as a function of height, latitude, and day, is precalculated from an astronomical model coupled to a chemical meteoric ablation model (CABMOD). This newly developed WACCM-Fe model has been evaluated against a number of available ground-based lidar observations and performs well in simulating the mesospheric atomic Fe layer. The model reproduces the strong positive correlation of temperature and Fe density around the Fe layer peak and the large anticorrelation around 100 km. The diurnal tide has a significant effect in the middle of the layer, and the model also captures well the observed seasonal variations. However, the model overestimates the peak Fe+ concentration compared with the limited rocket-borne mass spectrometer data available, although good agreement on the ion layer underside can be obtained by adjusting the rate coefficients for dissociative recombination of Fe-molecular ions with electrons. Sensitivity experiments with the same chemistry in a 1-D model are used to highlight significant remaining uncertainties in reaction rate coefficients, and to explore the dependence of the total Fe abundance on the MIF and rate of vertical transport.

  11. Global mantle convection models with mobile continents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, Benjamin R.

    Continental motions are fundamental in shaping the Earth's surface. Features attributable to continental drift, such as orogenies and rifts, dominate subaerial geography. On an even grander scale, paleomagnetism suggests global continental reorganizations over time scales of hundreds of millions of years (Myr). In fact, supercontinental aggregations such as Pangea, Rodinia, and Columbia appear in the geologic record with a period of a few hundred Myr, suggestive of a cycle. These surface motions are likely coupled to mantle convection. Continents cluster over cold downwellings, as in the closing of the Tethys Ocean. Supercontinents apparently warm the mantle, as suggested by the African superplume, which lingers beneath the former site of Pangea. A number of geodynamic modelers have investigated the nature of this coupling, often generating results reminiscent of observations. Still, many such studies were limited by the use of Cartesian geometries that do not accurately represent the Earth. In this thesis I address the feedback between continents and the mantle using a high resolution, spherical, finite element (FEM) mantle convection code. I integrate a lithospheric model into the code, prescribing rigid, buoyant, mobile continents that serve as boundary conditions for the mantle. In a series of simulations with individual continents, I investigate the system's sensitivity to variations in fundamental mantle parameters and continent size. Continents covering 30%, 10%, and 3% of Earth's surface (representative of Pangea, Asia, and Antarctica, respectively) are introduced into mantle models characterized by pure core or radiogenic heating, and uniform or layered viscosity. Supercontinents are found effective in promoting the development of global thermal heterogeneities in an internally heated, layered viscosity mantle. Smaller continents behave passively and exhibit more time dependent behavior. Next, I introduce models incorporating three to six continents in

  12. A global digital elevation model - GTOP030

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    1999-01-01

    GTOP030, the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) of the Earth, provides the flrst global coverage of moderate resolution elevation data.  The original GTOP30 data set, which was developed over a 3-year period through a collaborative effort led by the USGS, was completed in 1996 at the USGS EROS Data Center in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  The collaboration involved contributions of staffing, funding, or source data from cooperators including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the United Nations Environment Programme Global Resource Information Database (UNEP/GRID), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI) of Mexico, the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan, Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research of New Zealand, and the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). In 1999, work was begun on an update to the GTOP030 data set. Additional data sources are being incorporated into GTOP030 with an enhanced and improved data set planned for release in 2000.

  13. Modeling Global Change in Local Places: Capturing Global Change and Local Impacts in a Global Land System Change Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verburg, P.; Eitelberg, D.; Ornetsmueller, C.; van Vliet, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global land use models are driven by demands for food and urban space. However, at the same time many transitions in land use and land cover are driven by societal changes and the demand for a wide range of landscape functions or ecosystem services, including the conservation of biodiversity, regulation of climate and floods, and recreation. Some of these demands lead to tele-connected land use change through the transport of good and services, others are place-based and shape the local realities of land system change. Most current land use change models focus on land cover changes alone and ignore the importance of changes in land management and landscape configuration that affect climate, biodiversity and the provisioning of ecosystem services. This talk will present an alternative approach to global land use modelling based on the simulation of changes in land systems in response to a wide set of ecosystem service demands. Simulations at global scale illustrate that accounting for demands for livestock products, carbon sequestration and biological conservation (following the Aichi targets) leads to different outcomes of land change models and allows the identification of synergies between carbon and biodiversity targets. An application in Laos indicates the complex transitions in land systems and landscapes that occur upon the transition from shifting cultivation to permanent agriculture and tree-crop plantations. We discuss the implications of such land system representations for Earth system modelling.

  14. Polynomial search and global modeling: Two algorithms for modeling chaos.

    PubMed

    Mangiarotti, S; Coudret, R; Drapeau, L; Jarlan, L

    2012-10-01

    Global modeling aims to build mathematical models of concise description. Polynomial Model Search (PoMoS) and Global Modeling (GloMo) are two complementary algorithms (freely downloadable at the following address: http://www.cesbio.ups-tlse.fr/us/pomos_et_glomo.html) designed for the modeling of observed dynamical systems based on a small set of time series. Models considered in these algorithms are based on ordinary differential equations built on a polynomial formulation. More specifically, PoMoS aims at finding polynomial formulations from a given set of 1 to N time series, whereas GloMo is designed for single time series and aims to identify the parameters for a selected structure. GloMo also provides basic features to visualize integrated trajectories and to characterize their structure when it is simple enough: One allows for drawing the first return map for a chosen Poincaré section in the reconstructed space; another one computes the Lyapunov exponent along the trajectory. In the present paper, global modeling from single time series is considered. A description of the algorithms is given and three examples are provided. The first example is based on the three variables of the Rössler attractor. The second one comes from an experimental analysis of the copper electrodissolution in phosphoric acid for which a less parsimonious global model was obtained in a previous study. The third example is an exploratory case and concerns the cycle of rainfed wheat under semiarid climatic conditions as observed through a vegetation index derived from a spatial sensor.

  15. Violence Against Women: Globalizing the Integrated Ecological Model.

    PubMed

    Fulu, Emma; Miedema, Stephanie

    2015-12-01

    Globalization theories have proliferated over the past two decades. However, global developments have yet to be systematically incorporated into theories around violence against women. This article proposes to add a global level to the existing ecological model framework, popularized by Lori Heise in 1998, to explore the relationships between global processes and experiences of violence against women. Data from the Maldives and Cambodia are used to assess how globalized ideologies, economic development and integration, religious fundamentalisms, and global cultural exchange, as components of a larger globalization process, have affected men and women's experiences and perceptions of violence against women.

  16. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    SciTech Connect

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; Fike, Jeffrey A.

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not components of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.

  17. Kinetic Global Modeling of Rare Gas Lasers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsey, Guy; Verboncoeur, John; Christlieb, Andrew

    2016-10-01

    Akin to diode-pumped alkali metal lasers, electronically excited states of rare gases (e.g. Ar and Kr) have been shown to operate as chemically inert three-level gain media for an optically pumped laser system. As opposed to vaporization heating, these systems rely on electric discharge to efficiently maintain a population of metastable states acting as the bottom laser level. We propose that a modified electron energy distribution (EEDF) in the electric heating can tune optically pumped rare gas laser (OPRGL) efficiencies. The EEDF factors into all plasma phase chemistry within the underlying reaction network, and is assumed to be maintained by discharge and electron sources. Using parameter scanning methods within the kinetic global modeling framework (KGMf), optimized EEDFs are found for metastable production and increasing OPRGL operational efficiencies. Finally, we investigate the feasibility of using a modified EEDF to drive a rare gas laser system without optical pumping. Supported by AFOSR and an MSU SPG.

  18. Aeras: A next generation global atmosphere model

    DOE PAGES

    Spotz, William F.; Smith, Thomas M.; Demeshko, Irina P.; ...

    2015-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories is developing a new global atmosphere model named Aeras that is performance portable and supports the quantification of uncertainties. These next-generation capabilities are enabled by building Aeras on top of Albany, a code base that supports the rapid development of scientific application codes while leveraging Sandia's foundational mathematics and computer science packages in Trilinos and Dakota. Embedded uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an original design capability of Albany, and performance portability is a recent upgrade. Other required features, such as shell-type elements, spectral elements, efficient explicit and semi-implicit time-stepping, transient sensitivity analysis, and concurrent ensembles, were not componentsmore » of Albany as the project began, and have been (or are being) added by the Aeras team. We present early UQ and performance portability results for the shallow water equations.« less

  19. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  20. A global electric circuit model within a community climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucas, G. M.; Baumgaertner, A. J. G.; Thayer, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    To determine the complex dependencies of currents and electric fields within the Global Electric Circuit (GEC) on the underlying physics of the atmosphere, a new modeling framework of the GEC has been developed for use within global circulation models. Specifically, the Community Earth System Modeling framework has been utilized. A formulation of atmospheric conductivity based on ion production and loss mechanisms (including galactic cosmic rays, radon, clouds, and aerosols), conduction current sources, and ionospheric potential changes due to the influence of external current systems are included. This paper presents a full description of the calculation of the electric fields and currents within the model, which now includes several advancements to GEC modeling as it incorporates many processes calculated individually in previous articles into a consistent modeling framework. This framework uniquely incorporates effects from the troposphere up to the ionosphere within a single GEC model. The incorporation of a magnetospheric potential, which is generated by a separate magnetospheric current system, acts to modulate or enhance the surface level electric fields at high-latitude locations. This produces a distinct phasing signature with the GEC potential that is shown to depend on the observation location around the globe. Lastly, the model output for Vostok and Concordia, two high-latitude locations, is shown to agree with the observational data obtained at these sites over the same time period.

  1. BETR Global - A geographically explicit global-scale multimedia contaminant fate model

    SciTech Connect

    Macleod, M.; Waldow, H. von; Tay, P.; Armitage, J. M.; Wohrnschimmel, H.; Riley, W.; McKone, T. E.; Hungerbuhler, K.

    2011-04-01

    We present two new software implementations of the BETR Global multimedia contaminant fate model. The model uses steady-state or non-steady-state mass-balance calculations to describe the fate and transport of persistent organic pollutants using a desktop computer. The global environment is described using a database of long-term average monthly conditions on a 15{sup o} x 15{sup o} grid. We demonstrate BETR Global by modeling the global sources, transport, and removal of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

  2. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1998-01-01

    The coronal magnetic field defines the structure of the solar corona, the position of the heliospheric current sheet, the regions of fast and slow solar wind, and the most likely sites of coronal mass ejections. There are few measurements of the magnetic fields in the corona, but the line-of-sight component of the global magnetic fields in the photosphere have been routinely measured for many years (for example, at Stanford's Wilcox Solar Observatory, and at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak). The SOI/MDI instrument is now providing high-resolution full-disk magnetograms several times a day. Understanding the large-scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere requires accurately mapping the measured photospheric magnetic field into the corona and outward. Ideally, a model should not only extrapolate the magnetic field, but should self-consistently reconstruct both the plasma and magnetic fields in the corona and solar wind. Support from our NASA SR&T contract has allowed us to develop three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona that incorporate observed photospheric magnetic fields into the boundary conditions. These calculations not only describe the magnetic field in the corona and interplanetary spice, but also predict the plasma properties as well. Our computations thus far have been successful in reproducing many aspects of both coronal and interplanetary data, including the structure of the streamer belt, the location of coronal hole boundaries, and the position and shape of the heliospheric current sheet. The most widely used technique for extrapolating the photospheric magnetic field into the corona and heliosphere are potential field models, such as the potential field source-surface model (PFSS),and the potential field current-sheet (PFCS) model

  3. Global Climate Models of the Terrestrial Planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forget, F.; Lebonnois, S.

    On the basis of the global climate models (GCMs) originally developed for Earth, several teams around the world have been able to develop GCMs for the atmospheres of the other terrestrial bodies in our solar system: Venus, Mars, Titan, Triton, and Pluto. In spite of the apparent complexity of climate systems and meteorology, GCMs are based on a limited number of equations. In practice, relatively complete climate simulators can be developed by combining a few components such as a dynamical core, a radiative transfer solver, a parameterization of turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model, and a volatile phase change code, possibly completed by a few specific schemes. It can be shown that many of these GCM components are "universal" so that we can envisage building realistic climate models for any kind of terrestrial planets and atmospheres that we can imagine. Such a tool is useful for conducting scientific investigations on the possible climates of terrestrial extrasolar planets, or to study past environments in the solar system. The ambition behind the development of GCMs is high: The ultimate goal is to build numerical simulators based only on universal physical or chemical equations, yet able to reproduce or predict all the available observations on a given planet, without any ad hoc forcing. In other words, we aim to virtually create in our computers planets that "behave" exactly like the actual planets themselves. In reality, of course, nature is always more complex than expected, but we learn a lot in the process. In this chapter we detail some lessons learned in the solar system: In many cases, GCMs work. They have been able to simulate many aspects of planetary climates without difficulty. In some cases, however, problems have been encountered, sometimes simply because a key process has been forgotten in the model or is not yet correctly parameterized, but also because sometimes the climate regime seems to be result of a subtle balance between

  4. Global Magnetohydrodynamic Modeling of the Solar Corona

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linker, Jon A.

    1997-01-01

    Under this contract, we have continued our investigations of the large scale structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. These computations have also formed the basis for studies of coronal mass ejections (CMES) using realistic coronal configurations. We have developed a technique for computing realistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) computations of the solar corona and inner heliosphere. To perform computations that can be compared with specific observations, it is necessary to incorporate solar observations into the boundary conditions. We have used the Wilcox Solar Observatory synoptic maps (collected during a solar rotation by daily measurements of the line-of-sight magnetic field at central meridian) to specify the radial magnetic field (B,) at the photosphere. For the initial condition, we use a potential magnetic field consistent with the specified distribution of B, at the lower boundary, and a wind solution consistent with the specified plasma density and temperature at the solar surface. Together this initial condition forms a (non-equilibrium) approximation of the state of the solar corona for the time-dependent MHD computation. The MHD equations are then integrated in time to steady state. Here we describe solutions relevant to a recent solar eclipse, as well as Ulysses observations. We have also developed a model configuration of solar minimum, useful for studying CME initiation and propagation.

  5. New Global Bathymetry and Topography Model Grids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, W. H.; Sandwell, D. T.; Marks, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    A new version of the "Smith and Sandwell" global marine topography model is available in two formats. A one-arc-minute Mercator projected grid covering latitudes to +/- 80.738 degrees is available in the "img" file format. Also available is a 30-arc-second version in latitude and longitude coordinates from pole to pole, supplied as tiles covering the same areas as the SRTM30 land topography data set. The new effort follows the Smith and Sandwell recipe, using publicly available and quality controlled single- and multi-beam echo soundings where possible and filling the gaps in the oceans with estimates derived from marine gravity anomalies observed by satellite altimetry. The altimeter data have been reprocessed to reduce the noise level and improve the spatial resolution [see Sandwell and Smith, this meeting]. The echo soundings database has grown enormously with new infusions of data from the U.S. Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO), the National Geospatial-intelligence Agency (NGA), hydrographic offices around the world volunteering through the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO), and many other agencies and academic sources worldwide. These new data contributions have filled many holes: 50% of ocean grid points are within 8 km of a sounding point, 75% are within 24 km, and 90% are within 57 km. However, in the remote ocean basins some gaps still remain: 5% of the ocean grid points are more than 85 km from the nearest sounding control, and 1% are more than 173 km away. Both versions of the grid include a companion grid of source file numbers, so that control points may be mapped and traced to sources. We have compared the new model to multi-beam data not used in the compilation and find that 50% of differences are less than 25 m, 95% of differences are less than 130 m, but a few large differences remain in areas of poor sounding control and large-amplitude gravity anomalies. Land values in the solution are taken from SRTM30v2, GTOPO30 and ICESAT data

  6. Global Tectonics of Enceladus: Numerical Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Czechowski, Leszek

    2016-10-01

    Introduction: Enceladus, a satellite of Saturn, is the smallest celestial body in the Solar System where volcanic and tectonic activities are observed. Every second, the mass of 200 kg is ejected into space from the South Polar Terrain (SPT) - [1]. The loss of matter from the body's interior should lead to global compression of the crust. Typical effects of compression are: thrust faults, folding and subduction. However, such forms are not dominant on Enceladus. We propose here special tectonic process that could explain this paradox. Our hypotheses states that the mass loss from SPT is the main driving mechanism of the following tectonic processes: subsidence of SPT, flow in the mantle and motion of adjacent tectonic plates. The hypotheses is presented in [2], [3] and[4].We suggest that the loss of the volatiles results in a void, an instability, and motion of solid matter to fill the void. The motion is presented at the Fig.1 and includes:Subsidence of the 'lithosphere' of SPT.Flow of the matter in the mantle.Motion of plates adjacent to SPT towards the active regionMethods and results: The numerical model of processes presented is developed. It is based on the equations of continuous media..If emerging void is being filled by the subsidence of SPT only, then the velocity of subsidence is 0.05 mmyr-1. However, numerical calculations indicate that all three types of motion are usually important. The role of a given motion depends on the viscosity distribution. Generally, for most of the models the subsidence is 0.02 mmyr-1, but mantle flow and plates' motion also play a role in filling the void. The preliminary results of the numerical model indicate also that the velocity of adjacent plates could be 0.02 mmyr-1 for the Newtonian rheology.Note that in our model the reduction of the crust area is not a result of compression but it is a result of the plate sinking. Therefore the compressional surface features do not have to be dominant. The SPT does not have to be

  7. Global emissions inventories to aid atmospheric modelers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graedel, T. E.

    Computer projections of changes in global atmospheric chemistry could become more accurate and more easily compared with the availability of standard global emissions inventories. Starting in 1994, the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) began to finalize gridded global emissions inventories and distribute them to atmospheric scientists. GEIA operates under the auspices of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project, a cooperative effort of several hundred atmospheric scientists from more than 30 countries. The purpose of the IGAC Project is to measure, understand, and predict changes in global atmospheric chemistry, particularly those contributing to global problems such as acid rain, depletion of stratospheric ozone, greenhouse warming, and increased oxidant levels that damage biota.A 1992 survey by participants in the GEIA project [Graedel et al., 1993] showed that suitable emissions inventories are rarely available. The chlorofluorocarbon inventory, regarded as well quantified, was unavailable in gridded form. Inventories for CO2, CH4, NOx, SO2, reduced sulfur, and radon were regarded as having excess uncertainty, inadequate spatial resolution, or both; inventories for other chemical species were sketchy or nonexistent. Temporal resolution was almost uniformly poor. The survey made it clear that internally consistent, rigorously developed, gridded inventories with adequate spatial and temporal resolution would be valuable.

  8. Global Nonlinear Parametric Modeling with Application to F-16 Aerodynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1998-01-01

    A global nonlinear parametric modeling technique is described and demonstrated. The technique uses multivariate orthogonal modeling functions generated from the data to determine nonlinear model structure, then expands each retained modeling function into an ordinary multivariate polynomial. The final model form is a finite multivariate power series expansion for the dependent variable in terms of the independent variables. Partial derivatives of the identified models can be used to assemble globally valid linear parameter varying models. The technique is demonstrated by identifying global nonlinear parametric models for nondimensional aerodynamic force and moment coefficients from a subsonic wind tunnel database for the F-16 fighter aircraft. Results show less than 10% difference between wind tunnel aerodynamic data and the nonlinear parameterized model for a simulated doublet maneuver at moderate angle of attack. Analysis indicated that the global nonlinear parametric models adequately captured the multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic functional dependence.

  9. Offline tracer transport modeling with global WRF model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belikov, Dmitry; Maksytov, Shamil; Zaripov, Radomir; Bart, Andrey; Starchenko, Alexander

    2013-04-01

    This work describes the one-way coupling between a global configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) weather prediction model (http://wrf-model.org/) and the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) three-dimensional offline chemical transport model (version NIES-08.1i). The primary motivation for developing this coupled model has been to reduce transport errors in global-scale simulation of greenhouse gases through a more detailed description of the meteorological conditions. We have implemented a global configuration of WRF model (version 3.4.1, ARW core) with 2.5 degree horizontal resolution and 32 vertical levels. The WRF model was driving with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) reanalysis using combined techniques: FDDA + Cyclic Incremental Correction (like in intermittent data assimilation). Time-averaged mass-coupled horizontal velocities on sigma levels with approach supposed by Nehrkorn et al. (2010) are calculated to drive NIES TM. The NIES TM is designed to simulate natural and anthropogenic synoptic-scale variations in atmospheric constituents at diurnal, seasonal and interannual timescales. The model uses a mass-conservative flux-form formulation that consists of a third-order van Leer advection scheme and a horizontal dry-air mass flux correction. The horizontal latitude-longitude grid is a reduced rectangular grid (i.e., the grid size is doubled several times approaching the poles), with an initial spatial resolution of 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg and 32 vertical levels from the surface up to the level of 3 hPa. A simulations of the atmospheric tracer are used to evaluate the performance of the coupled WRF-NIES model. Simulated distributions are validated against in situ observations and compared with output from "standard" version of NIES TM driven by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis/the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JRA-25/JCDAS) dataset. Fields calculated by WRF and used to drive NIES TM were also evaluated

  10. Global Hydrological Hazard Evaluation System (Global BTOP) Using Distributed Hydrological Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gusyev, M.; Magome, J.; Hasegawa, A.; Takeuchi, K.

    2015-12-01

    A global hydrological hazard evaluation system based on the BTOP models (Global BTOP) is introduced and quantifies flood and drought hazards with simulated river discharges globally for historical, near real-time monitoring and climate change impact studies. The BTOP model utilizes a modified topographic index concept and simulates rainfall-runoff processes including snowmelt, overland flow, soil moisture in the root and unsaturated zones, sub-surface flow, and river flow routing. The current global BTOP is constructed from global data on 10-min grid and is available to conduct river basin analysis on local, regional, and global scale. To reduce the impact of a coarse resolution, topographical features of global BTOP were obtained using river network upscaling algorithm that preserves fine resolution characteristics of 3-arcsec HydroSHEDS and 30-arcsec Hydro1K datasets. In addition, GLCC-IGBP land cover (USGS) and the DSMW(FAO) were used for the root zone depth and soil properties, respectively. The long-term seasonal potential evapotranspiration within BTOP model was estimated by the Shuttleworth-Wallace model using climate forcing data CRU TS3.1 and a GIMMS-NDVI(UMD/GLCF). The global BTOP was run with globally available precipitation such APHRODITE dataset and showed a good statistical performance compared to the global and local river discharge data in the major river basins. From these simulated daily river discharges at each grid, the flood peak discharges of selected return periods were obtained using the Gumbel distribution with L-moments and the hydrological drought hazard was quantified using standardized runoff index (SRI). For the dynamic (near real-time) applications, the global BTOP model is run with GSMaP-NRT global precipitation and simulated daily river discharges are utilized in a prototype near-real time discharge simulation system (GFAS-Streamflow), which is used to issue flood peak discharge alerts globally. The global BTOP system and GFAS

  11. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; Schuchart, Joseph; Kline, Keith L.; Wei, Yaxing; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Post, Wilfred M.; Izaurralde, R. Cesar

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmental effects.

  12. Development of mpi_EPIC model for global agroecosystem modeling

    DOE PAGES

    Kang, Shujiang; Wang, Dali; Jeff A. Nichols; ...

    2014-12-31

    Models that address policy-maker concerns about multi-scale effects of food and bioenergy production systems are computationally demanding. We integrated the message passing interface algorithm into the process-based EPIC model to accelerate computation of ecosystem effects. Simulation performance was further enhanced by applying the Vampir framework. When this enhanced mpi_EPIC model was tested, total execution time for a global 30-year simulation of a switchgrass cropping system was shortened to less than 0.5 hours on a supercomputer. The results illustrate that mpi_EPIC using parallel design can balance simulation workloads and facilitate large-scale, high-resolution analysis of agricultural production systems, management alternatives and environmentalmore » effects.« less

  13. Global daily reference evapotranspiration modeling and evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Senay, G.B.; Verdin, J.P.; Lietzow, R.; Melesse, Assefa M.

    2008-01-01

    Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ∼100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world

  14. Modeling of reservoir operation in UNH global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, Alexander; Prusevich, Alexander; Frolking, Steve; Glidden, Stanley; Lammers, Richard; Wisser, Dominik

    2015-04-01

    Climate is changing and river flow is an integrated characteristic reflecting numerous environmental processes and their changes aggregated over large areas. Anthropogenic impacts on the river flow, however, can significantly exceed the changes associated with climate variability. Besides of irrigation, reservoirs and dams are one of major anthropogenic factor affecting streamflow. They distort hydrological regime of many rivers by trapping of freshwater runoff, modifying timing of river discharge and increasing the evaporation rate. Thus, reservoirs is an integral part of the global hydrological system and their impacts on rivers have to be taken into account for better quantification and understanding of hydrological changes. We developed a new technique, which was incorporated into WBM-TrANS model (Water Balance Model-Transport from Anthropogenic and Natural Systems) to simulate river routing through large reservoirs and natural lakes based on information available from freely accessible databases such as GRanD (the Global Reservoir and Dam database) or NID (National Inventory of Dams for US). Different formulations were applied for unregulated spillway dams and lakes, and for 4 types of regulated reservoirs, which were subdivided based on main purpose including generic (multipurpose), hydropower generation, irrigation and water supply, and flood control. We also incorporated rules for reservoir fill up and draining at the times of construction and decommission based on available data. The model were tested for many reservoirs of different size and types located in various climatic conditions using several gridded meteorological data sets as model input and observed daily and monthly discharge data from GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), USGS Water Data (US Geological Survey), and UNH archives. The best results with Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient in the range of 0.5-0.9 were obtained for temperate zone of Northern Hemisphere where most of large

  15. SEP modeling based on the ENLIL global heliospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Odstrcil, D.; Lee, C.; Bain, H. M.; Li, Y.; Schwadron, N.; Gorby, M.; Baker, D. N.; Dewey, R. M.; Larson, D. E.; Halekas, J. S.; Connerney, J. E. P.; von Rosenvinge, T. T.; Galvin, A. B.; McComas, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL model provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a spherical shaped CME can be inserted. Understanding gradual SEP events (often driven by CMEs) well enough to forecast their properties at a given location requires a realistic picture of the global background solar wind through which the shocks and SEPs propagate. Accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is clear from our preliminary runs that the CMEs sometimes generate multiple shocks, some of which fade while others merge and/or strengthen as they propagate. In order to completely characterize the SEP profiles observed at locations spread in longitude with the aid of these simulations it is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and allow enough time for the events to propagate and interact. ENLIL provides solar wind parameters and additionally one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) and Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM). In this presentation we demonstrate case studies of SEP event modeling at locations spread in longitude based on WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations.

  16. Global warming description using Daisyworld model with greenhouse gases.

    PubMed

    Paiva, Susana L D; Savi, Marcelo A; Viola, Flavio M; Leiroz, Albino J K

    2014-11-01

    Daisyworld is an archetypal model of the earth that is able to describe the global regulation that can emerge from the interaction between life and environment. This article proposes a model based on the original Daisyworld considering greenhouse gases emission and absorption, allowing the description of the global warming phenomenon. Global and local analyses are discussed evaluating the influence of greenhouse gases in the planet dynamics. Numerical simulations are carried out showing the general qualitative behavior of the Daisyworld for different scenarios that includes solar luminosity variations and greenhouse gases effect. Nonlinear dynamics perspective is of concern discussing a way that helps the comprehension of the global warming phenomenon.

  17. Modeling the Global Workplace Using Emerging Technologies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorazio, Patricia; Hickok, Corey

    2008-01-01

    The Fall 2006 term of COM495, Senior Practicum in Communication, offered communication and information design students the privilege of taking part in a transatlantic intercultural virtual project. To emulate real world experience in today's global workplace, these students researched and completed a business communication project with German…

  18. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, K. J.; Carslaw, K. S.; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne E.; Adams, P. J.

    2013-06-28

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth’s energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically-based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect using analytic representations of droplet nucleation, cloud and aerosol vertical structure, and horizontal variability in cloud water and aerosol concentration. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of aerosol indirect effects that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates are found to be sensitive to several uncertain parameters, including the preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the size of the primary particles, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Aerosol indirect effects are surprisingly linear in emissions. This simple model provides a much stronger physical basis for representing aerosol indirect effects than previous representations in integrated assessment models designed to quickly explore the parameter space of emissions-climate interactions. The model also produces estimates that depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models.

  19. Atmospheric Sulfur Cycle Simulated in The Global Model GOCART: Model Description and Global Properties

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian; Rood, Richard B.; Lin, Shian-Jiann; Mueller, Jean-Francois; Thompson, Anne M.

    2000-01-01

    The Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model is used to simulate the atmospheric sulfur cycle. The model uses the simulated meteorological data from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). Global sulfur budgets from a 6-year simulation for SO2, sulfate, dimethylsulfide (DMS), and methanesulfonic acid (MSA) are presented in this paper. In a normal year without major volcanic perturbations, about 20% of the sulfate precursor emission is from natural sources (biogenic and volcanic) and 80% is anthropogenic: the same sources contribute 339% and 67% respectively to the total sulfate burden. A sulfate production efficiency of 0.41 - 0.42 is estimated in the model, an efficiency which is defined as a ratio of the amount oi sulfate produced to the total amount of SO2 emitted and produced in the atmosphere. This value indicates that less than half of the SO2 entering the atmosphere contributes to the sulfate production, the rest being removed by dry and wet depositions. In a simulation for 1990, we estimate a total sulfate production of 39 Tg S /yr with 36% and 64% respectively from in-air and in-cloud oxidation of SO2. We also demonstrate that major volcanic eruptions, such as the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1991, can significantly change the sulfate formation pathways, distributions, abundance, and lifetime. Comparison with other models shows that the parameterizations for wet removal or wet production of sulfate are the most critical factors in determining the burdens of SO2 and sulfate. Therefore, a priority for future research should be to reduce the large uncertainties associated with the wet physical and chemical processes.

  20. Conceptual model for partnership and sustainability in global health.

    PubMed

    Leffers, Jeanne; Mitchell, Emma

    2011-01-01

    Although nursing has a long history of service to the global community, the profession lacks a theoretical and empirical base for nurses to frame their global practice. A study using grounded theory methodology to investigate partnership and sustainability for global health led to the development of a conceptual model. Interviews were conducted with 13 global health nurse experts. Themes from the interviews were: components for engagement, mutual goal setting, cultural bridging, collaboration, capacity building, leadership, partnership, ownership, and sustainability. Next, the identified themes were reviewed in the literature in order to evaluate their conceptual relationships. Finally, careful comparison of the interview transcripts and the supporting literature led to the Conceptual Framework for Partnership and Sustainability in Global Health Nursing. The model posits that engagement and partnership must precede any planning and intervention in order to create sustainable interventions. This conceptual framework will offer nurses important guidance for global health nursing practice.

  1. A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ghan, Steven J.; Smith, Steven J.; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Kai; Pringle, Kirsty; Carslaw, Kenneth; Pierce, Jeffrey; Bauer, Susanne; Adams, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

  2. Visualization and dissemination of global crustal models on virtual globes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liang-feng; Pan, Xin; Sun, Jian-zhong

    2016-05-01

    Global crustal models, such as CRUST 5.1 and its descendants, are very useful in a broad range of geoscience applications. The current method for representing the existing global crustal models relies heavily on dedicated computer programs to read and work with those models. Therefore, it is not suited to visualize and disseminate global crustal information to non-geological users. This shortcoming is becoming obvious as more and more people from both academic and non-academic institutions are interested in understanding the structure and composition of the crust. There is a pressing need to provide a modern, universal and user-friendly method to represent and visualize the existing global crustal models. In this paper, we present a systematic framework to easily visualize and disseminate the global crustal structure on virtual globes. Based on crustal information exported from the existing global crustal models, we first create a variety of KML-formatted crustal models with different levels of detail (LODs). And then the KML-formatted models can be loaded into a virtual globe for 3D visualization and model dissemination. A Keyhole Markup Language (KML) generator (Crust2KML) is developed to automatically convert crustal information obtained from the CRUST 1.0 model into KML-formatted global crustal models, and a web application (VisualCrust) is designed to disseminate and visualize those models over the Internet. The presented framework and associated implementations can be conveniently exported to other applications to support visualizing and analyzing the Earth's internal structure on both regional and global scales in a 3D virtual-globe environment.

  3. Toward an Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum in Global Ocean Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-05-14

    14 MAY 2015 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Toward an Internal Gravity Wave Spectrum in Global...resolution global ocean models forced by atmospheric fields and tides are beginning to display realistic internal gravity wave spectra, especially as

  4. Global Modeling of ULF waves at Mercury

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, E. H.; Valeo, E. J.; Johnson, J.; Phillips, C.

    2015-12-01

    ULF waves in the ion cyclotron frequency range waves are regularly observed at Mercury's magnetosphere. Although previous statistical studies have shown that ULF waves are primarily compressional near the equator and transverse with linear polarization at higher latitude, the underlying reason for this distribution of wave polarization has not been understood. In order to address this key question, we have developed a two-dimensional, finite element code that solves the full wave equations in global magnetospheric geometry. Using this code, we show that (1) efficient mode conversion from the fast compressional waves to the ion-ion hybrid resonance occurs at Mercury consistent with previous calculations; (2) such mode-converted waves globally oscillate similar to field-line resonance at Earth; and (3) compressional wave energy is primarily localized near the equator, while field-aligned transverse, linearly polarized waves generated by mode conversion at the ion-ion hybrid resonance radiate to higher latitude. Based on these wave solutions, we suggest that the strong transverse component of observed ULF waves at Mercury in high magnetic latitude can be explained as excitation of the field-line resonant waves at the ion-ion hybrid resonance.

  5. Multi-Scale Modeling of Global of Magnetospheric Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastatter, L.; Toth, G.; DeZeeuw, D.; Gombosi, T.

    2010-01-01

    To understand the role of magnetic reconnection in global evolution of magnetosphere and to place spacecraft observations into global context it is essential to perform global simulations with physically motivated model of dissipation that is capable to reproduce reconnection rates predicted by kinetic models. In our efforts to bridge the gap between small scale kinetic modeling and global simulations we introduced an approach that allows to quantify the interaction between large-scale global magnetospheric dynamics and microphysical processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. We utilized the high resolution global MHD code BATSRUS and incorporate primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of reconnection sites in terms of kinetic corrections to induction and energy equations. One of the key elements of the multiscale modeling of magnetic reconnection is identification of reconnection sites and boundaries of surrounding diffusion regions where non-MHD corrections are required. Reconnection site search in the equatorial plane implemented in our previous studies is extended to cusp and magnetopause reconnection, as well as for magnetotail reconnection in realistic asymmetric configurations. The role of feedback between the non-ideal effects in diffusion regions and global magnetosphere structure and dynamics will be discussed.

  6. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  7. Including eddies in global ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semtner, Albert J.; Chervin, Robert M.

    The ocean is a turbulent fluid that is driven by winds and by surface exchanges of heat and moisture. It is as important as the atmosphere in governing climate through heat distribution, but so little is known about the ocean that it remains a “final frontier” on the face of the Earth. Many ocean currents are truly global in extent, such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the “conveyor belt” that connects the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans by flows around the southern tips of Africa and South America. It has long been a dream of some oceanographers to supplement the very limited observational knowledge by reconstructing the currents of the world ocean from the first principles of physics on a computer. However, until very recently, the prospect of doing this was thwarted by the fact that fluctuating currents known as “mesoscale eddies” could not be explicitly included in the calculation.

  8. Global patterns of nitrogen limitation: confronting two global biogeochemical models with observations.

    PubMed

    Thomas, R Quinn; Zaehle, Sönke; Templer, Pamela H; Goodale, Christine L

    2013-10-01

    Projections of future changes in land carbon (C) storage using biogeochemical models depend on accurately modeling the interactions between the C and nitrogen (N) cycles. Here, we present a framework for analyzing N limitation in global biogeochemical models to explore how C-N interactions of current models compare to field observations, identify the processes causing model divergence, and identify future observation and experiment needs. We used a set of N-fertilization simulations from two global biogeochemical models (CLM-CN and O-CN) that use different approaches to modeling C-N interactions. On the global scale, net primary productivity (NPP) in the CLM-CN model was substantially more responsive to N fertilization than in the O-CN model. The most striking difference between the two models occurred for humid tropical forests, where the CLM-CN simulated a 62% increase in NPP at high N addition levels (30 g N m(-2) yr(-1)), while the O-CN predicted a 2% decrease in NPP due to N fertilization increasing plant respiration more than photosynthesis. Across 35 temperate and boreal forest sites with field N-fertilization experiments, we show that the CLM-CN simulated a 46% increase in aboveground NPP in response to N, which exceeded the observed increase of 25%. In contrast, the O-CN only simulated a 6% increase in aboveground NPP at the N-fertilization sites. Despite the small response of NPP to N fertilization, the O-CN model accurately simulated ecosystem retention of N and the fate of added N to vegetation when compared to empirical (15) N tracer application studies. In contrast, the CLM-CN predicted lower total ecosystem N retention and partitioned more losses to volatilization than estimated from observed N budgets of small catchments. These results point to the need for model improvements in both models in order to enhance the accuracy with which global C-N cycle feedbacks are simulated.

  9. US Navy Global and Regional Wave Modeling

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    WW3 delivers boundary conditions in packages marked for each nested wave modeling domain, for which a coastal model is run. Figure 5 depicts an...Wittmann, M. Sestak, J.  Schauer , S. Stripling, N.B. Bernier, J. McLean, Y. Chao, A. Chawla, H. Tolman, and others. 2013. The NCEP/FNMOC Combined Wave

  10. Observatory enabled modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schimel, D.; Fox, A. M.; Moore, D. J.; Sacks, W. J.; Berukoff, S. J.

    2011-12-01

    A central challenge to global modeling of the terrestrial carbon cycle is the scaling of organism-scale characteristics to large regions. Emerging ground- and space-based global observatories will allow coupling observations directly to state and parameter values in a state-of-the-art coupled carbon climate model. Model-data fusion will qualitatively improve understanding and forecasting of interannual to centennial scale responses of terrestrial ecosystems and carbon cycle to global environmental change. This modeling study will use the baseline measures of global terrestrial ecosystem biochemical composition to reduce uncertainty in forecasting E&CC responses to climate and land-use change. The NCAR Community Land Model (Community Land Model - Carbon/Nitrogen or CLM-CN) simulates carbon, water and energy exchange at the land surface and includes detailed parameters governing plant-mediated fluxes and storage NEON and NCAR are developing a data assimilation version of the CLM, designed to work with new observatory data. Data requirements of CLM are quite different from earlier generation land surface models because the nitrogen cycle is explicitly simulated. Nitrogen concentrations regulate plant photosynthesis and decomposition of dead organic matter but their within biome and global distributions are poorly constrained by observations. Developing a Observatory-enabled version of the CLM, and the cyberinfrastructure to support it creates a very different set of requirements for modeling and observatory information systems than traditional approaches. In the talk, we will discuss briefly the science of carbon data assimilation and the observing requirements it generates.

  11. Modelling pathogen transmission: the interrelationship between local and global approaches.

    PubMed Central

    Turner, Joanne; Begon, Michael; Bowers, Roger G

    2003-01-01

    We describe two spatial (cellular automaton) host-pathogen models with contrasting types of transmission, where the biologically realistic transmission mechanisms are based entirely on 'local' interactions. The two models, fixed contact area (FCA) and fixed contact number (FCN), may be viewed as local 'equivalents' of commonly used global density- (and frequency-) dependent models. Their outputs are compared with each other and with the patterns generated by these global terms. In the FCN model, unoccupied cells are bypassed, but in the FCA model these impede pathogen spread, extending the period of the epidemic and reducing the prevalence of infection when the pathogen persists. Crucially, generalized linear modelling reveals that the global transmission terms betaSI and beta'SI/N are equally good at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models when infected individuals are homogeneously distributed and N is approximately constant, as at the quasi-equilibrium. However, when N varies, the global frequency-dependent term beta'SI/N is better than the density-dependent one, betaSI, at describing transmission in both the FCA and FCN models. Our approach may be used more generally to compare different local contact structures and select the most appropriate global transmission term. PMID:12590777

  12. Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

  13. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kelley, Douglas I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Rabin, Sam S.; Archibald, Sally; Mouillot, Florent; Arnold, Steve R.; Artaxo, Paulo; Bachelet, Dominique; Ciais, Philippe; Forrest, Matthew; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hickler, Thomas; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kloster, Silvia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Lasslop, Gitta; Li, Fang; Mangeon, Stephane; Melton, Joe R.; Meyn, Andrea; Sitch, Stephen; Spessa, Allan; van der Werf, Guido R.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Yue, Chao

    2016-06-01

    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, using either well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. While a large variety of models exist today, it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), an international initiative to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we review how fires have been represented in fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and give an overview of the current state of the art in fire-regime modelling. We indicate which challenges still remain in global fire modelling and stress the need for a comprehensive model evaluation and outline what lessons may be learned from FireMIP.

  14. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  15. A Global Hydrological Model with Reservoir Operation Scheme: Global and Regional Applications (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Mateo, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2013-12-01

    More than 45000 large dams have been constructed all over the world, and their total storage capacity exceeds 7000 km3 which corresponds to approximately 20% of the total annual global river discharge. Explicit incorporation of reservoir operation is indispensable for global-/macro-scale hydrological models, since their storage capacity and potential of altering flow regime are too large to neglect. Our presentation consists of three parts. In the first part, the H08 model, a global hydrological model with reservoir operation scheme is introduced. The H08 model includes an algorithm to estimate reservoir operating rules of individual reservoirs. This enables us to apply the model to the regions and periods with no recorded reservoir operation. The key concepts and challenges of the model are discussed. In the second part, the role of reservoirs in water scarcity is globally assessed. In many parts of the world, local people are suffered from temporal variability in precipitation and river flow. The contribution of reservoirs to water scarcity alleviation is quantitatively and globally assessed. The assessment is extended to the future periods utilizing the latest climate and socio-economic scenarios. In the last part, a regional model application is introduced. The Chao Phraya River in Thailand was suffered from a severe flood in 2011. Vast area was inundated for months and the economic damages reached 40 billion USD. The Chao Phraya River has two major reservoirs and their role is crucial for both water use and flood control. The H08 model is substantially enhanced and applied to the basin to reproduce the 2011 floods. The tradeoff between water use and flood control was investigated by changing reservoir operation options.

  16. Data-Driven Global Coronal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linker, Jon; Mikic, Zoran; Riley, Pete; Henney, Carl; Arge, Charles; Lionello, Roberto; Downs, Cooper

    MHD simulations of the solar corona based on maps of the solar magnetic field have been demonstrated to describe many aspects of coronal structure. However, these models are typically integrated to steady state, using synoptic or daily-updated magnetic maps to derive the boundary conditions. The Sun's magnetic flux is always evolving, and these changes in the flux affect the structure and dynamics of the corona and heliosphere. In this presentation, we describe an approach to evolutionary models of the corona and solar wind, using time-dependent boundary conditions. A key aspect of our approach is the use of the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model to develop time-evolving boundary conditions for the magnetic field. ADAPT incorporates data assimilation techniques into the Worden and Harvey (2000) flux evolution model, making it an especially suitable candidate for providing boundary conditions to MHD models. We describe initial results and their implications for coronal hole evolution and the origin of the slow solar wind.

  17. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  18. Looking for sedimentary basins using global gravity and crustal models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colpani, Stefano; Strykowski, Gabriel

    2014-05-01

    Publically available and newly released global crustal model, CRUST 1.0 (Laske et al., 2013) in combination with satellite based global gravity models GOCO3s (Mayer-Gürr T. et al., 2012) yield a possibility of combining global source models with global gravity models. The depths to the top and to the base of the geological units obtained from the global crust model are used to fix the source geometry. This information is subsequently used to forward compute the global gravity signature of these units in different heights above the sources and for unit mass density. The average global mass density for the geological unit acts like a scaling factor and the relation to the gravity signal becomes linear. The computations are done both for Tz (gravity disturbances) and for some chosen gravity gradient components Tzz, Tzx and Tzy, where x,y and z refer to a local east-north-up Cartesian reference frame. The above setup allows constructing a model of the regional (gravity) field both for Tz and for the above gradient components Tzz, Tzx and Tzy and to improve it on regional scale. In principle, the method allows to keep track of the relation between the regional (gravity) signal and the source model. Subsequently, a generalized Nettleton's method can be used to fine-tune density values for the sediments from any above type of gravity data and a combination of it. Finally, for the well-surveyed areas, the results can be compared with the independent information about the basin geometry. This experience can be used for quantifying the information about the sedimentary basin in areas where the information is limited.

  19. A PLASIMO global model for plasma assisted CO2 conversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graef, Wouter; Rehman, Tafizur; Mihailova, Diana; van Dijk, Jan

    2014-10-01

    Conversion of CO2 has become a major challenge of our time as it is of interest for the reduction of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, but also to store energy thereby relieving the supply and demand discrepancy of many alternative forms of energy. Plasma assisted CO2 conversion is heavily investigated as an efficient method to achieve this goal. Numerical modeling is an important aspect of this investigation, but is difficult due to the complex chemistry. A global model has been constructed to focus on the CO2 chemistry including its vibrational kinetics. The model has been realized using the global model module of PLASIMO, a highly modular plasma modeling framework. It is based on another model that was constructed using the well-established code Global_kin. The aim of the model is therefore twofold. First, to study the chemistry and identify the most important species and reactions and perform parametric studies. The knowledge gained can be applied to other, spatially resolved models. Second, by implementing the same chemistry in the two different global model codes, a cross validation can be performed, a vital scientific process often overlooked in practice.

  20. Testing empirical relationships between global sea-level and global temperature in long climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Gonzalez-Rouco, F.

    2009-04-01

    Estimations of future global sea-level rise brought about by increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin are based on simulations with coarse-resolution global climate models, which imposes some limitations on the skill of future projections because some of the processes that modulate the heat and fresh water flux into may not be adequately represented. To fill this gap, and until more complex climate models are available, some ad-hoc methods have been proposed that link the rise in global average temperature with the global mean sea-level rise. The statistical methods can be calibrated with observations and applied to the future global temperature rise simulated by climate models. This methods can be tested in the virtual reality simulated by global atmosphere.ocean models. Thereby, deficiencies can be identified and improvement suggested. The output of 1000-year long climate model simulation with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G over the past millennium has been used to determine the skill of different predictors to describe the variations of the rate of sea-level change in the simulation. These predictor variables comprise the global mean near-surface temperature, its rate of change with time and the heat-flux into the ocean. It is found that, in the framework of this climate simulation, global mean temperature is not a good predictor for the rate-of-change of sea-level. The correlation between both variables is not stable along the simulations and even its sign changes. A better predictor is the rate-of-change of temperature. Its correlation with the rate-of-change of sea-level is much more stable, it is always positive along the simulation, and there exists a lead-lag relationship between both that can be understood in simple physical terms. The best predictor among those tested is the heat-flux into the ocean. Its correlation is higher and there exists no time lag to the rate-of-change of sea-level, as expected

  1. Global ocean modeling on the Connection Machine

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.D.; Dukowicz, J.K.; Malone, R.C.

    1993-10-01

    The authors have developed a version of the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model (Bryan, 1969; Semtner, 1976; Cox, 1984) for massively parallel computers. Such models are three-dimensional, Eulerian models that use latitude and longitude as the horizontal spherical coordinates and fixed depth levels as the vertical coordinate. The incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, with a turbulent eddy viscosity, and mass continuity equation are solved, subject to the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The traditional model formulation uses a rigid-lid approximation (vertical velocity = 0 at the ocean surface) to eliminate fast surface waves. These waves would otherwise require that a very short time step be used in numerical simulations, which would greatly increase the computational cost. To solve the equations with the rigid-lid assumption, the equations of motion are split into two parts: a set of twodimensional ``barotropic`` equations describing the vertically-averaged flow, and a set of three-dimensional ``baroclinic`` equations describing temperature, salinity and deviations of the horizontal velocities from the vertically-averaged flow.

  2. Radiative heating in global climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Baer, F.; Arsky, N.; Rocque, K.

    1996-04-01

    LWR algorithms from various GCMs vary significantly from one another for the same clear sky input data. This variability becomes pronounced when clouds are included. We demonstrate this effect by intercomparing the various models` output using observed data including clouds from ARM/CART data taken in Oklahoma.

  3. Efficient stencil assembly in global geodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Simon; Mohr, Marcus; Rüde, Ulrich; Wittmann, Markus

    2016-04-01

    In mantle circulation models the simulation domain is a thick spherical shell representing the earth's mantle. Typically, finite elements are the method of choice to account for the spherical geometry. The wide range of length scales involved in earth dynamics is a major challenge. Capturing localized features such as faulted plate boundaries requires local resolutions in the order of

  4. Global Attenuation Model of the Upper Mantle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adenis, A.; Debayle, E.; Ricard, Y. R.

    2015-12-01

    We present a three-dimensional shear attenuation model based on a massive surface wave data-set (372,629 Rayleigh waveforms analysed in the period range 50-300s by Debayle and Ricard, 2012). For each seismogram, this approach yields depth-dependent path average models of shear velocity and quality factor, and a set of fundamental and higher-mode dispersion and attenuation curves. We combine these attenuation measurements in a tomographic inversion after a careful rejection of the noisy data. We first remove data likely to be biased by a poor knowledge of the source. Then we assume that waves corresponding to events having close epicenters and recorded at the same station sample the same elastic and anelastic structure, we cluster the corresponding rays and average the attenuation measurements. Logarithms of the attenuations are regionalized using the non-linear east square formalism of Tarantola and Valette (1982), resulting in attenuation tomographic maps between 50s and 300s. After a first inversion, outlyers are rejected and a second inversion yields a moderate variance reduction of about 20%. We correct the attenuation curves for focusing effect using the linearized ray theory of Woodhouse and Wong (1986). Accounting for focussing effects allows building tomographic maps with variance reductions reaching 40%. In the period range 120-200s, the root mean square of the model perturbations increases from about 5% to 20%. Our 3-D attenuation models present strong agreement with surface tectonics at period lower than 200s. Areas of low attenuation are located under continents and areas of high attenuation are associated with oceans. Surprisingly, although mid oceanic ridges are located in attenuating regions, their signature, even if enhanced by focusing corrections, remains weaker than in the shear velocity models. Synthetic tests suggests that regularisation contributes to damp the attenuation signature of ridges, which could therefore be underestimated.

  5. Aerosol measurement program strategy for global aerosol backscatter model development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowdle, David A.

    1985-01-01

    The purpose was to propose a balanced program of aerosol backscatter research leading to the development of a global model of aerosol backscatter. Such a model is needed for feasibility studies and systems simulation studies for NASA's prospective satellite-based Doppler lidar wind measurement system. Systems of this kind measure the Doppler shift in the backscatter return from small atmospheric aerosol wind tracers (of order 1 micrometer diameter). The accuracy of the derived local wind estimates and the degree of global wind coverage for such a system are limited by the local availability and by the global scale distribution of natural aerosol particles. The discussions here refer primarily to backscatter model requirements at CO2 wavelengths, which have been selected for most of the Doppler lidar systems studies to date. Model requirements for other potential wavelengths would be similar.

  6. Global quantum discord and quantum phase transition in XY model

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Si-Yuan; Zhang, Yu-Ran; Yang, Wen-Li; Fan, Heng

    2015-11-15

    We study the relationship between the behavior of global quantum correlations and quantum phase transitions in XY model. We find that the two kinds of phase transitions in the studied model can be characterized by the features of global quantum discord (GQD) and the corresponding quantum correlations. We demonstrate that the maximum of the sum of all the nearest neighbor bipartite GQDs is effective and accurate for signaling the Ising quantum phase transition, in contrast, the sudden change of GQD is very suitable for characterizing another phase transition in the XY model. This may shed lights on the study of properties of quantum correlations in different quantum phases.

  7. Global detailed geoid computation and model analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsh, J. G.; Vincent, S.

    1974-01-01

    Comparisons and analyses were carried out through the use of detailed gravimetric geoids which we have computed by combining models with a set of 26,000 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies. The accuracy of the detailed gravimetric geoid computed using the most recent Goddard earth model (GEM-6) in conjunction with the set of 1 deg x 1 deg mean free air gravity anomalies is assessed at + or - 2 meters on the continents of North America, Europe, and Australia, 2 to 5 meters in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic areas, and 5 to 10 meters in other areas where surface gravity data are sparse. The R.M.S. differences between this detailed geoid and the detailed geoids computed using the other satellite gravity fields in conjuction with same set of surface data range from 3 to 7 meters.

  8. Modelling of global change at the mesopause

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gruzdev, A.; Brasseur, G.

    2003-04-01

    Significant negative temperature trend at the northern hemisphere mesospause for winter season has been documented by different methods of observations. For studying mechanisms of the mesopause cooling, simulations with the use of the chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model named SOCRATES are used. Probable mechanisms of the observed cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere can be of radiation as well as dynamical nature. Among these are changes in contents of greenhouse gases and changes in gravity wave momentum deposition affecting the meridional circulation in the upper mesosphere. Combined increase for the last 50 year, in accordance with the observed trends, in contents of CO2, methane, N2O, and water vapor as well as the lower troposphere warming results in a simulated cooling of a few K at the mesopause for winter and summer seasons. This shows that the trends in the contents of greenhouse gases and the lower troposphere temperature are not the only (and, probably, not the main) reason of the large cooling in the upper mesosphere, at least in the framework of a two-dimensional model. Long-term changes in the circulation resulting in changes of gravity wave momentum and energy deposition, which affects the circulation in the middle atmosphere, could also be responsible for this effect. As an example, the doubling of the model gravity wave forcing results in an essential cooling by several K at the northern hemisphere mesopause in winter. The simulated effect of combined changes in contents of greenhouse gases, low troposphere temperature, and doubling of the gravity wave forcing is the cooling of the model mesopause by 8-10 K in the middle-to-high latitudes of the northern hemisphere in winter, along with insignificant thermal effect in summer.

  9. Representing Hurricanes with a Nested Global Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otte, M. J.; Walko, R. L.; Avissar, R.

    2007-12-01

    A global forecast model is essential for predicting hurricane tracks beyond a period of ~2 days since global processes that may influence the longer-term storm tracks can be represented explicitly and there are no errors from the lateral boundary conditions that can propagate into the model domain and diminish the accuracy of the track forecasts. However, global models usually do not have enough horizontal and vertical resolution to produce meaningful hurricane intensity forecasts. Most current operational global forecast models represent the atmosphere horizontally using spherical harmonic basis functions with an equivalent resolution of ~40-50 km. The NOAA Science Advisory Board Hurricane Intensity Research Working Group recommends approximately 1-km-resolution hurricane forecasts in order to represent the important physical processes in the core region of hurricanes that are important to accurately predict hurricane intensity. Even with state-of-the-art computers, it will be many years before global forecasts with 1-km horizontal resolution are practical. To predict both hurricane tracks and intensity well, a nested global model is necessary. Large-scale processes are represented on a coarser, computationally-efficient grid while features such as hurricanes are represented on a high-resolution nest. The global model used in this study is the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM) being developed at Duke University. OLAM is the global successor to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which originated at Colorado State University in 1986. OLAM uses the same physics parameterizations as RAMS, but it solves the governing equations by discretizing the atmosphere on an unstructured triangular finite-volume grid. The triangular grid uses the Arakawa-C staggering and is fully mass conservative. Since the triangular mesh is unstructured, the mesh can be refined to produce much higher horizontal resolution in areas of interest such as near hurricanes. Here, we

  10. Modeling global organic aerosol formation and growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsimpidi, Alexandra; Karydis, Vlasios; Pandis, Spyros; Lelieveld, Jos

    2014-05-01

    A computationally efficient framework for the description of organic aerosol (OA)-gas partitioning and chemical aging has been developed and implemented into the EMAC atmospheric chemistry-climate model. This model simulates the formation of primary (POA) and secondary organic aerosols (SOA) from semi-volatile (SVOC), intermediate-volatile (IVOC) and volatile organic compounds (VOC). POA are divided in two groups with saturation concentrations at 298 K 0.1, 10, 1000, 100000 µg m-3: OA from fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning. The first 2 surrogate species from each group represent the SVOC while the other surrogate species represent the IVOC. Photochemical reactions that change the volatility of the organics in the gas phase are taken into account. The oxidation products from each group of precursors (SVOC, IVOC, and VOC) are lumped into an additional set of oxidized surrogate species (S-SOA, I-SOA, and V-SOA, respectively) in order to track their source of origin. This model is used to i) estimate the relative contributions of SOA and POA to total OA, ii) determine how SOA concentrations are affected by biogenic and anthropogenic emissions, and iii) evaluate the effect of photochemical aging and long-range transport on OA budget over specific regions.

  11. Global existence for a degenerate haptotaxis model of cancer invasion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhigun, Anna; Surulescu, Christina; Uatay, Aydar

    2016-12-01

    We propose and study a strongly coupled PDE-ODE system with tissue-dependent degenerate diffusion and haptotaxis that can serve as a model prototype for cancer cell invasion through the extracellular matrix. We prove the global existence of weak solutions and illustrate the model behavior by numerical simulations for a two-dimensional setting.

  12. Global Education: Towards a Quantum Model of Environmental Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selby, David

    1999-01-01

    Presents a four-dimensional model of transformative global education inspired by the quantum worldview. Elaborates on the principle benefits of applying such a quantum model of education to environmental education, a field where the mechanistic paradigm still has some hold. (Author/CCM)

  13. Global health educational engagement - a tale of two models.

    PubMed

    Rassiwala, Jasmine; Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Kupershtok, Mania; Castillo, Frank M; Evert, Jessica

    2013-11-01

    Global health learning experiences for medical students sit at the intersection of capacity building, ethics, and education. As interest in global health programs during medical school continues to rise, Northwestern University Alliance for International Development, a student-led and -run organization at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, has provided students with the opportunity to engage in two contrasting models of global health educational engagement.Eleven students, accompanied by two Northwestern physicians, participated in a one-week trip to Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in December 2010. This model allowed learning within a familiar Western framework, facilitated high-volume care, and focused on hands-on experiences. This approach aimed to provide basic medical services to the local population.In July 2011, 10 other Feinberg students participated in a four-week program in Puerto Escondido, Mexico, which was coordinated by Child Family Health International, a nonprofit organization that partners with native health care providers. A longer duration, homestays, and daily language classes hallmarked this experience. An intermediary, third-party organization served to bridge the cultural and ethical gap between visiting medical students and the local population. This program focused on providing a holistic cultural experience for rotating students.Establishing comprehensive global health curricula requires finding a balance between providing medical students with a fulfilling educational experience and honoring the integrity of populations that are medically underserved. This article provides a rich comparison between two global health educational models and aims to inform future efforts to standardize global health education curricula.

  14. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies.

    PubMed

    Pierce, David W; Barnett, Tim P; Santer, Benjamin D; Gleckler, Peter J

    2009-05-26

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures.

  15. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    PubMed Central

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  16. Modeling nitrous oxide emission from rivers: a global assessment.

    PubMed

    Hu, Minpeng; Chen, Dingjiang; Dahlgren, Randy A

    2016-11-01

    Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta-analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N2 O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N2 O flux was significantly correlated with NH4 , NO3 and DIN (NH4  + NO3 ) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N2 O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N2 O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N2 O emission rates (EF(a): R(2)  = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R(2)  = 0.91 for global model and R(2)  = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N2 O emission rates of 29.6-35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N2 O-N yr(-1) and emission factors of 0.16-0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N2 O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N2 O emission rates (300-2100 Gg N2 O-N yr(-1) ) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N2 O emission estimates will be further enhanced through

  17. Reconstruction of Groundwater Depletion Using a Global Scale Groundwater Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Van Beek, L. P.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a crucial part of the global water cycle. It is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. During times of droughts it sustains river flows and evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. However, most global scale hydrological models do not include a lateral groundwater flow component due to a lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information. Such data is needed to arrive at a more realistic physical representation of the groundwater system allowing for the simulation of groundwater head dynamics and lateral flows including abstractions in confined and unconfined aquifers. This improved process description is indispensable to understand the effects of past and future climate variations and human dependence on global water resources. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model presenting confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR-GLOBWB (van Beek et al. 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. The aquifer parameterization is based on available global data-sets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al. 2011) and newly derived estimates of aquifer depth and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. In a sensitivity analysis the model is run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and recharge (Wada et al 2012) are evaluated. Trends and fluctuations of groundwater head and streamflow are studied in response to human groundwater use and climate variability, as well as revealing hotspots and magnitude of global groundwater depletion.

  18. Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): Global pattern and differentiation by major biomes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kicklighter, D.W.; Bondeau, A.; Schloss, A.L.; Kaduk, J.; McGuire, A.D.

    1999-01-01

    Annual and seasonal net primary productivity estimates (NPP) of 15 global models across latitudinal zones and biomes are compared. The models simulated NPP for contemporary climate using common, spatially explicit data sets for climate, soil texture, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Differences among NPP estimates varied over space and time. The largest differences occur during the summer months in boreal forests (50??to 60??N) and during the dry seasons of tropical evergreen forests. Differences in NPP estimates are related to model assumptions about vegetation structure, model parameterizations, and input data sets.

  19. Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

  20. Modeling and Global Optimization of DNA separation

    PubMed Central

    Fahrenkopf, Max A.; Ydstie, B. Erik; Mukherjee, Tamal; Schneider, James W.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a non-convex non-linear programming problem that determines the minimum run time to resolve different lengths of DNA using a gel-free micelle end-labeled free solution electrophoresis separation method. Our optimization framework allows for efficient determination of the utility of different DNA separation platforms and enables the identification of the optimal operating conditions for these DNA separation devices. The non-linear programming problem requires a model for signal spacing and signal width, which is known for many DNA separation methods. As a case study, we show how our approach is used to determine the optimal run conditions for micelle end-labeled free-solution electrophoresis and examine the trade-offs between a single capillary system and a parallel capillary system. Parallel capillaries are shown to only be beneficial for DNA lengths above 230 bases using a polydisperse micelle end-label otherwise single capillaries produce faster separations. PMID:24764606

  1. Global modeling of tropospheric iodine aerosol

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherwen, Tomás. M.; Evans, Mat J.; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Carpenter, Lucy J.; Chance, Rosie; Baker, Alex R.; Schmidt, Johan A.; Breider, Thomas J.

    2016-09-01

    Natural aerosols play a central role in the Earth system. The conversion of dimethyl sulfide to sulfuric acid is the dominant source of oceanic secondary aerosol. Ocean emitted iodine can also produce aerosol. Using a GEOS-Chem model, we present a simulation of iodine aerosol. The simulation compares well with the limited observational data set. Iodine aerosol concentrations are highest in the tropical marine boundary layer (MBL) averaging 5.2 ng (I) m-3 with monthly maximum concentrations of 90 ng (I) m-3. These masses are small compared to sulfate (0.75% of MBL burden, up to 11% regionally) but are more significant compared to dimethyl sulfide sourced sulfate (3% of the MBL burden, up to 101% regionally). In the preindustrial, iodine aerosol makes up 0.88% of the MBL burden sulfate mass and regionally up to 21%. Iodine aerosol may be an important regional mechanism for ocean-atmosphere interaction.

  2. Hippocampal neurogenesis in the new model of global cerebral ischemia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kisel, A. A.; Chernysheva, G. A.; Smol'yakova, V. I.; Savchenko, R. R.; Plotnikov, M. B.; Khodanovich, M. Yu.

    2015-11-01

    The study aimed to evaluate the changes of hippocampal neurogenesis in a new model of global transient cerebral ischemia which was performed by the occlusion of the three main vessels (tr. brachiocephalicus, a. subclavia sinistra, and a. carotis communis sinistra) branching from the aortic arch and supplying the brain. Global transitory cerebral ischemia was modeled on male rats (weight = 250-300 g) under chloral hydrate with artificial lung ventilation. Animals after the same surgical operation without vessel occlusion served as sham-operated controls. The number of DCX-positive (doublecortin, the marker of immature neurons) cells in dentate gyrus (DG) and CA1-CA3 fields of hippocampus was counted at the 31st day after ischemia modeling. It was revealed that global cerebral ischemia decreased neurogenesis in dentate gyrus in comparison with the sham-operated group (P<0.05) while neurogenesis in CA1-CA3 fields was increased as compared to the control (P<0.05).

  3. A high-resolution global flood hazard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher C.; Smith, Andrew M.; Bates, Paul B.; Neal, Jeffrey C.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Freer, Jim E.

    2015-09-01

    Floods are a natural hazard that affect communities worldwide, but to date the vast majority of flood hazard research and mapping has been undertaken by wealthy developed nations. As populations and economies have grown across the developing world, so too has demand from governments, businesses, and NGOs for modeled flood hazard data in these data-scarce regions. We identify six key challenges faced when developing a flood hazard model that can be applied globally and present a framework methodology that leverages recent cross-disciplinary advances to tackle each challenge. The model produces return period flood hazard maps at ˜90 m resolution for the whole terrestrial land surface between 56°S and 60°N, and results are validated against high-resolution government flood hazard data sets from the UK and Canada. The global model is shown to capture between two thirds and three quarters of the area determined to be at risk in the benchmark data without generating excessive false positive predictions. When aggregated to ˜1 km, mean absolute error in flooded fraction falls to ˜5%. The full complexity global model contains an automatically parameterized subgrid channel network, and comparison to both a simplified 2-D only variant and an independently developed pan-European model shows the explicit inclusion of channels to be a critical contributor to improved model performance. While careful processing of existing global terrain data sets enables reasonable model performance in urban areas, adoption of forthcoming next-generation global terrain data sets will offer the best prospect for a step-change improvement in model performance.

  4. Global scale hydrology - Advances in land surface modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, E.F. )

    1991-01-01

    Research into global scale hydrology is an expanding area that includes researchers from the meteorology, climatology, ecology and hydrology communities. This paper reviews research in this area carried out in the United States during the last IUGG quadrennial period of 1987-1990. The review covers the representation of land-surface hydrologic processes for general circulation models (GCMs), sensitivity analysis of these representations on global hydrologic fields like precipitation, regional studies of climate that have global hydrologic implications, recent field studies and experiments whose aims are the improved understanding of land surface-atmospheric interactions, and the use of remotely sensed data for the further understanding of the spatial variability of surface hydrologic processes that are important at regional and global climate scales. 76 refs.

  5. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-1 10 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  6. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Harberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. ne primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase 1 aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase 1 aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  7. Mars Global Surveyor: Aerobraking and Observations Support Using a Mars Global Circulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, Robert M.

    1997-01-01

    This is a Final Report for a Joint Research Interchange (JRI) between NASA Ames Research Center and San Jose State University, Department of Meteorology. Using a global atmospheric circulation model for Mars, the focus of this JRI has been to provide support for the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft aerobraking activities and interpretation guidance of preliminary observations. The primary atmospheric model applied in this investigation has been a high-top version of the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (MGCM). Comparisons with an atmospheric model designed primarily for engineering purposes (Mars-GRAM) has also been carried out. From a suite of MGCM simulations, we have assessed plausible spatial and temporal variability in atmospheric density at high altitudes (e.g., 70-110 km) for seasonal dates and locations during Phase I aerobraking. Diagnostic tools have been developed to analyze circulation fields from the MGCM simulations, and these tools have been applied in the creation of a Mars climate catalogue database. Throughout Phase I aerobraking activities, analysis products have been provided to the MGS aerobraking atmospheric advisory group (AAG). Analyses of circulation variability at the coupling level between the MGCM and a Mars thermospheric global circulation model (MTGCM) has also been assessed. Finally, using a quasi-geostrophic dynamical formulation with the MGCM simulations, diagnosis of breaking planetary (Rossby) waves in Mars' middle atmosphere has been carried out. Titles of papers presented at scientific workshops and seminars, and a publication in the scientific literature are provided.

  8. Daily total global solar radiation modeling from several meteorological data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilgili, Mehmet; Ozgoren, Muammer

    2011-05-01

    This paper investigates the modeling of the daily total global solar radiation in Adana city of Turkey using multi-linear regression (MLR), multi-nonlinear regression (MNLR) and feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) methods. Several daily meteorological data, i.e., measured sunshine duration, air temperature and wind speed and date of the year, i.e., monthly and daily, were used as independent variables to the MLR, MNLR and ANN models. In order to determine the relationship between the total global solar radiation and other meteorological data, and also to obtain the best independent variables, the MLR and MNLR analyses were performed with the "Stepwise" method in the Statistical Packages for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program. Thus, various models consisting of the combination of the independent variables were constructed and the best input structure was investigated. The performances of all models in the training and testing data sets were compared with the measured daily global solar radiation values. The obtained results indicated that the ANN method was better than the other methods in modeling daily total global solar radiation. For the ANN model, mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), correlation coefficient ( R) and coefficient of determination ( R 2) for the training/testing data set were found to be 0.89/1.00 MJ/m2 day, 7.88/9.23%, 0.9824/0.9751, and 0.9651/0.9508, respectively.

  9. Development of the IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Xiaodong; Li, Fang; Song, Xiang

    2014-05-01

    The IAP Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (IAP-DGVM) has been developed to simulate the distribution and structure of global vegetation within the framework of Earth System Models. It incorporates our group's recent developments of major model components such as the shrub sub-model, establishment and competition parameterization schemes, and a process-based fire parameterization of intermediate complexity. The model has 12 plant functional types, including seven tree, two shrub, and three grass types, plus bare soil. Different PFTs are allowed to coexist within a grid cell, and their state variables are updated by various governing equations describing vegetation processes from fine-scale biogeophysics and biogeochemistry, to individual and population dynamics, to large-scale biogeography. Environmental disturbance due to fire not only affects regional vegetation competition, but also influences atmospheric chemistry and aerosol emissions. Simulations under observed atmospheric conditions showed that the model can correctly reproduce the global distribution of trees, shrubs, grasses, and bare soil. The simulated global dominant vegetation types reproduce the transition from forest to grassland (savanna) in the tropical region, and from forest to shrubland in the boreal region, but overestimate the region of temperate forest.

  10. A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2012-09-01

    Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for

  11. A global coupled model of the lithosphere and mantle dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iaffaldano, G.; Bunge, H.

    2004-12-01

    Understanding the dynamics of global lithospheric motion is one of the most important problems in geodynamics today. Mantle convection is commonly accepted as the driving force for plate motion but, while the kinematics of plate movement is well known from space geodetic and paleomagnetic observations, we lack a rigorous description of the coupled mantle convection-plate motion system. Here we present first results from a coupled mantle convection-global lithosphere motion model following a similar effort by Lithgow-Bertelloni and Guynn. Our plate motion code is SHELLS, a thinsheet FEM code developed by Bird which computes global plate motion and explicitly accounts for faults. The global mantle convection code is TERRA, a high-resolution 3-D FEM code developed and parallelized by Bunge and Baumgardner. We perform simple modeling experiments in which the shear tractions applied to the bottom of the lithosphere arise directly from the mantle circulation model. Our mantle circulation model includes a history of subduction and accounts, among others, for variations in mantle viscosity and strong bottom heating from the core. We find that our results are sensitive to the amount of core heating, an inference that has received renewed attention lately, and that models with stronger core heating overall are in better agreement with observations of intraplate stresses derived from the World Stress Map.

  12. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model.

    PubMed

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-07-21

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole.

  13. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    SciTech Connect

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R.

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  14. ITG: A New Global GNSS Tropospheric Correction Model

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Yibin; Xu, Chaoqian; Shi, Junbo; Cao, Na; Zhang, Bao; Yang, Junjian

    2015-01-01

    Tropospheric correction models are receiving increasing attentions, as they play a crucial role in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). Most commonly used models to date include the GPT2 series and the TropGrid2. In this study, we analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of existing models and developed a new model called the Improved Tropospheric Grid (ITG). ITG considers annual, semi-annual and diurnal variations, and includes multiple tropospheric parameters. The amplitude and initial phase of diurnal variation are estimated as a periodic function. ITG provides temperature, pressure, the weighted mean temperature (Tm) and Zenith Wet Delay (ZWD). We conducted a performance comparison among the proposed ITG model and previous ones, in terms of meteorological measurements from 698 observation stations, Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) products from 280 International GNSS Service (IGS) station and Tm from Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) products. Results indicate that ITG offers the best performance on the whole. PMID:26196963

  15. Nonstationarity signatures in the dynamics of global nonlinear models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguirre, L. A.; Letellier, C.

    2012-09-01

    The aim of this paper is to learn how to recognize a posteriori signatures that nonstationarity leaves on global models obtained from data. To this end the effects of nonstationarity on the dynamics of such models are reported for two benchmarks. Parameters of the Rössler and Lorenz models are varied to produce nonstationary data. It is shown that not only the rate of change of the varying parameter but also which recorded variable is used to estimate global models may have visible effects on the results, which are system-dependent and therefore difficult to generalize. Although the effects of nonstationarity are not necessarily obvious from the phase portraits, the first-return map to a Poincaré section is a much more adequate tool to recognize such effects. Three examples of models previously obtained from experimental data are analyzed in the light of the concepts discussed in this paper.

  16. A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Running, Steven W.

    1992-01-01

    A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

  17. Modeling global distribution of agricultural insecticides in surface waters.

    PubMed

    Ippolito, Alessio; Kattwinkel, Mira; Rasmussen, Jes J; Schäfer, Ralf B; Fornaroli, Riccardo; Liess, Matthias

    2015-03-01

    Agricultural insecticides constitute a major driver of animal biodiversity loss in freshwater ecosystems. However, the global extent of their effects and the spatial extent of exposure remain largely unknown. We applied a spatially explicit model to estimate the potential for agricultural insecticide runoff into streams. Water bodies within 40% of the global land surface were at risk of insecticide runoff. We separated the influence of natural factors and variables under human control determining insecticide runoff. In the northern hemisphere, insecticide runoff presented a latitudinal gradient mainly driven by insecticide application rate; in the southern hemisphere, a combination of daily rainfall intensity, terrain slope, agricultural intensity and insecticide application rate determined the process. The model predicted the upper limit of observed insecticide exposure measured in water bodies (n = 82) in five different countries reasonably well. The study provides a global map of hotspots for insecticide contamination guiding future freshwater management and conservation efforts.

  18. Integrating Kinetic Effects into Global Models for Reconnection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antiochos, S. K.

    2012-01-01

    Magnetic reconnection is the most striking example of how the coupling between global and kinetic scales can lead to fast energy release. Explosive solar activity, such as coronal mass ejections and flares for example, is widely believed to be due to the release of magnetic energy stored on global scales by magnetic reconnection operating on kinetic scales. Understanding how processes couple across spatial scales is one of the most difficult challenges in all of physics, and is undoubtedly the main obstacle to developing predictive models for the Sun's activity. Consequently, the NASA Living With a Star Program selected a Focused Science Team to attack the problem of cross-scale coupling in reconnection. In this talk I will present some of the results of the Team and review our latest theories and methods for modeling the global-local coupling in solar reconnection.

  19. Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

    1983-01-01

    A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

  20. Is a substantial global bioenergy system feasible? A spatial analysis using a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erbrecht, T.; Lucht, W.; Lotze-Campem, H.

    2007-12-01

    Avoiding dangerous climate change requires drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, the global demand for energy is projected to grow by more than 50 % until 2030 (IEA, 2006) and therefore actions are urgently required to decarbonize the global economy. Second generation bioenergy systems are promoted as a way forward to displace large amounts of fossil fuels with renewable materials, thereby increasing energy security and stabilizing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. At the same time, concerns are being raised regarding the sustainability of large-scale dedicated biomass plantations with regard to extensive mono- cultures, irrigation and fertilization requirements. We use a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) including current agriculture to simulate the effects of rising competition for land when an additional spatially extensive production system for a new commodity, bioenergy, is added to the global land use mix under continued increase in global population size as well as per capita energy consumption. How much land is needed for a significant bioenergy generation if sufficient food production is warranted and what are the consequences for the terrestrial biosphere? To assess the potential impacts of a significant global bioenergy sector, we produced a selection of scenarios based on prior assumptions of total bioenergy demand, progress in conversion technologies and the availability of cultivable land limited by food requirements and biodiversity protection. We present the corresponding land use patterns as well as their impacts on the terrestrial carbon balance, evapotranspiration fluxes and irrigation demand. We find that an area of up to 50 % the size of current agricultural land is needed for the cultivation of ligno-cellulosic crops to satisfy high bioenergy demands. Carbon fluxes into the atmosphere caused by the removal of natural vegetation can equal those of 8 years of fossil fuel combustion.

  1. Should precipitation influence dust emission in global dust models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okin, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Soil moisture modulates the threshold shear stress required to initiate aeolian transport and dust emission. Most of the theoretical and laboratory work that has confirmed the impact of soil moisture has appropriately acknowledged that it is the soil moisture of a surface layer a few grain diameters thick that truly controls threshold shear velocity. Global and regional models of dust emission include the effect of soil moisture on transport threshold, but most ignore the fact that only the moisture of the very topmost "active layer" matters. The soil moisture in the active layer can differ greatly from that integrated through the top 2, 5, 10, or 100 cm (surface layers used by various global models) because the top 2 mm of heavy texture soils dries within ~1/2 day while sandy soils dry within less than 2 hours. Thus, in drylands where dust emission occurs, it is likely that this top layer is drier than the underlying soil in the days and weeks after rain. This paper explores, globally, the time between rain events in relation to the time for the active layer to dry and the timing of high wind events. This analysis is carried out using the same coarse reanalyses used in global dust models and is intended to inform the soil moisture controls in these models. The results of this analysis indicate that the timing between events is, in almost all dust-producing areas, significantly longer than the drying time of the active layer, even when considering soil texture differences. Further, the analysis shows that the probability of a high wind event during the period after a rain where the surface is wet is small. Therefore, in coarse global models, there is little reason to include rain-derived soil moisture in the modeling scheme.

  2. Modeling Global Urbanization Supported by Nighttime Light Remote Sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization, a major driver of global change, profoundly impacts our physical and social world, for example, altering carbon cycling and climate. Understanding these consequences for better scientific insights and effective decision-making unarguably requires accurate information on urban extent and its spatial distributions. In this study, we developed a cluster-based method to estimate the optimal thresholds and map urban extents from the nighttime light remote sensing data, extended this method to the global domain by developing a computational method (parameterization) to estimate the key parameters in the cluster-based method, and built a consistent 20-year global urban map series to evaluate the time-reactive nature of global urbanization (e.g. 2000 in Fig. 1). Supported by urban maps derived from nightlights remote sensing data and socio-economic drivers, we developed an integrated modeling framework to project future urban expansion by integrating a top-down macro-scale statistical model with a bottom-up urban growth model. With the models calibrated and validated using historical data, we explored urban growth at the grid level (1-km) over the next two decades under a number of socio-economic scenarios. The derived spatiotemporal information of historical and potential future urbanization will be of great value with practical implications for developing adaptation and risk management measures for urban infrastructure, transportation, energy, and water systems when considered together with other factors such as climate variability and change, and high impact weather events.

  3. New Models of Hybrid Leadership in Global Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tonini, Donna C.; Burbules, Nicholas C.; Gunsalus, C. K.

    2016-01-01

    This manuscript highlights the development of a leadership preparation program known as the Nanyang Technological University Leadership Academy (NTULA), exploring the leadership challenges unique to a university undergoing rapid growth in a highly multicultural context, and the hybrid model of leadership it developed in response to globalization.…

  4. Applying modeling Results in designing a global tropospheric experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1982-01-01

    A set of field experiments and advanced modeling studies which provide a strategy for a program of global tropospheric experiments was identified. An expanded effort to develop space applications for trospheric air quality monitoring and studies was recommended. The tropospheric ozone, carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles are addressed. Stratospheric-tropospheric exchange is discussed. Fast photochemical processes in the free troposphere are considered.

  5. Hydrological model calibration for enhancing global flood forecast skill

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, Feyera A.; Beck, Hylke E.; Salamon, Peter; Thielen-del Pozo, Jutta

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems play a key role in flood risk reduction, and their effectiveness is directly linked to streamflow forecast skill. The skill of a streamflow forecast is affected by several factors; among them are (i) model errors due to incomplete representation of physical processes and inaccurate parameterization, (ii) uncertainty in the model initial conditions, and (iii) errors in the meteorological forcing. In macro scale (continental or global) modeling, it is a common practice to use a priori parameter estimates over large river basins or wider regions, resulting in suboptimal streamflow estimations. The aim of this work is to improve flood forecast skill of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS; www.globalfloods.eu), a grid-based forecasting system that produces flood forecast unto 30 days lead, through calibration of the distributed hydrological model parameters. We use a combination of in-situ and satellite-based streamflow data for automatic calibration using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. We will present the calibrated global parameter maps and report the forecast skill improvements achieved. Furthermore, we discuss current challenges and future opportunities with regard to global-scale early flood warning systems.

  6. ON VERTICALLY GLOBAL, HORIZONTALLY LOCAL MODELS FOR ASTROPHYSICAL DISKS

    SciTech Connect

    McNally, Colin P.; Pessah, Martin E. E-mail: mpessah@nbi.dk

    2015-10-01

    Disks with a barotropic equilibrium structure, for which the pressure is only a function of the density, rotate on cylinders in the presence of a gravitational potential, so that the angular frequency of such a disk is independent of height. Such disks with barotropic equilibria can be approximately modeled using the shearing box framework, representing a small disk volume with height-independent angular frequency. If the disk is in baroclinic equilibrium, the angular frequency does generally depend on height, and it is thus necessary to go beyond the standard shearing box approach. In this paper, we show that given a global disk model, it is possible to develop approximate models that are local in horizontal planes without an expansion in height with shearing-periodic boundary conditions. We refer to the resulting framework as the vertically global shearing box (VGSB). These models can be non-axisymmetric for globally barotropic equilibria but should be axisymmetric for globally baroclinic equilibria. We provide explicit equations for this VGSB which can be implemented in standard magnetohydrodynamic codes by generalizing the shearing-periodic boundary conditions to allow for a height-dependent angular frequency and shear rate. We also discuss the limitations that result from the radial approximations that are needed in order to impose height-dependent shearing periodic boundary conditions. We illustrate the potential of this framework by studying a vertical shear instability and examining the modes associated with the magnetorotational instability.

  7. The Research University in Transition: The Emerging Global Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mohrman, Kathryn; Ma, Wanhua; Baker, David

    2008-01-01

    In a knowledge intensive society, the research university is a key institution for social and economic development. Focused on the discovery of new knowledge and the development of the next generation of scholars, research universities are also becoming more international in focus. This article presents the Emerging Global Model (EGM) of the…

  8. Models - Another tool for use in global change research

    SciTech Connect

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Baldocchi, D.D.; King, A.W.; Post, W.M. )

    1994-06-01

    Models are increasingly being used in the plant sciences to integrate and extrapolate information derived from laboratory and field investigations. To illustrate the utility of models in global change research, a series of leaf, canopy, ecosystem, and global-scale models are used to explore the response of trees to atmospheric CO[sub 2] enrichment. A biochemical model highlights the effects of elevated CO[sub 2] and temperature on photosynthesis, the consequences of Rubisco down-regulation to leaf and canopy carbon gain, and the relationships among stomatal conductance, transpiration, leaf area, and canopy energy balance. A forest succession model examines the effects of CO[sub 2] on species composition and forest productivity, while a model of the global carbon cycle illustrates the effects of rising CO[sub 2] on terrestrial carbon storage and the interaction of this affect with temperature. We conclude that models are appropriate tools for use both in guiding existing studies and in identifying new hypotheses for future research.

  9. Ocean modeling in a global ocean observing system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Neville R.

    1993-08-01

    The oceanographic community is currently contemplating the design of a global ocean climate observing system to help monitor, describe, and understand the seasonal to decadal climate changes of the ocean and to provide the observations needed for climate prediction. This review attempts to define a role for modeling within that system, the central theme being that the observational and modeling elements must be developed in concert, with the presence of one enhancing the value of the other. Three distinct categories of model-to-data interface are identified. In the first class, models and data collection develop separately, being joined only by intermittent validation steps. In the second, and by far most important, class the model and data collection evolve together, either in a time-space data assimilation and prediction system, or through the application of inverse methods. In the final category, model information feeds back to the observing system design, and vice versa, and the model assimilation system provides quality control on the data. The key role of (atmospheric) models in the determination of surface fluxes to drive ocean models is discussed. A nontrivial role is proposed for ocean models whereby they provide additional, and largely independent, constraints on atmospheric forecast system estimates. The role of ocean models in the analysis of surface and upper ocean fields needs to be developed, particularly with respect to salinity and nonphysical fields. The use of models in rationalizing the choice of observation platforms is discussed, together with some of the difficulties in interpreting such studies. The state of tropical ocean prediction is reviewed with particular emphasis on systems that assimilate subsurface temperature data. A range of thermocline models are also reviewed with the emphasis on subduction and the problem of initializing and constraining models that resolve mesoscale eddies. Some of the issues involved in matching the models to

  10. Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanse, J.; Fung, I.; Rind, D.

    1984-01-01

    The initial attempts to model the atmospheric CO2 distribution, including couplings to the ocean and biosphere as sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2, encourage the notion that this approach will lead to useful quantitative constraints on CO2 fluxes. Realization of this objective will require: (1) continued improvement in the realism of the global transport modeling; (2) extended timeline of atmospheric CO2 monitoring, which improved precision and improved definition of the uncertainties in the measured CO2 amounts; and (3) given an accurate knowledge of model capabilities and limitations and given a good understanding of CO2 observations and their limitations, there is a need for good ideas concerning what quantitative information on the carbon cycle can be inferred from global modeling.

  11. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a global, continuous in value and gradient, representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities and temperatures in the plasmasphere for five ion species. These and other works enable a new more robust empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  12. Small data global existence for a fluid-structure model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ignatova, Mihaela; Kukavica, Igor; Lasiecka, Irena; Tuffaha, Amjad

    2017-02-01

    We address the system of partial differential equations modeling motion of an elastic body inside an incompressible fluid. The fluid is modeled by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations while the structure is represented by the damped wave equation with interior damping. The additional boundary stabilization γ, considered in our previous paper, is no longer necessary. We prove the global existence and exponential decay of solutions for small initial data in a suitable Sobolev space.

  13. A computer model of global thermospheric winds and temperatures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Killeen, T. L.; Roble, R. G.; Spencer, N. W.

    1987-01-01

    Output data from the NCAR Thermospheric GCM and a vector-spherical-harmonic (VSH) representation of the wind field are used in constructing a computer model of time-dependent global horizontal vector neutral wind and temperature fields at altitude 130-300 km. The formulation of the VSH model is explained in detail, and some typical results obtained with a preliminary version (applicable to December solstice at solar maximum) are presented graphically. Good agreement with DE-2 satellite measurements is demonstrated.

  14. A high-resolution global-scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, I. E. M.; Sutanudjaja, E. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2015-02-01

    Groundwater is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water. It plays a vital role in satisfying basic needs for drinking water, agriculture and industrial activities. During times of drought groundwater sustains baseflow to rivers and wetlands, thereby supporting ecosystems. Most global-scale hydrological models (GHMs) do not include a groundwater flow component, mainly due to lack of geohydrological data at the global scale. For the simulation of lateral flow and groundwater head dynamics, a realistic physical representation of the groundwater system is needed, especially for GHMs that run at finer resolutions. In this study we present a global-scale groundwater model (run at 6' resolution) using MODFLOW to construct an equilibrium water table at its natural state as the result of long-term climatic forcing. The used aquifer schematization and properties are based on available global data sets of lithology and transmissivities combined with the estimated thickness of an upper, unconfined aquifer. This model is forced with outputs from the land-surface PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) model, specifically net recharge and surface water levels. A sensitivity analysis, in which the model was run with various parameter settings, showed that variation in saturated conductivity has the largest impact on the groundwater levels simulated. Validation with observed groundwater heads showed that groundwater heads are reasonably well simulated for many regions of the world, especially for sediment basins (R2 = 0.95). The simulated regional-scale groundwater patterns and flow paths demonstrate the relevance of lateral groundwater flow in GHMs. Inter-basin groundwater flows can be a significant part of a basin's water budget and help to sustain river baseflows, especially during droughts. Also, water availability of larger aquifer systems can be positively affected by additional recharge from inter-basin groundwater flows.

  15. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  16. Incorporating nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in the global biogeochemical model HAMOCC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paulsen, Hanna; Ilyina, Tatiana; Six, Katharina

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen fixation by marine diazotrophs plays a fundamental role in the oceanic nitrogen and carbon cycle as it provides a major source of 'new' nitrogen to the euphotic zone that supports biological carbon export and sequestration. Since most global biogeochemical models include nitrogen fixation only diagnostically, they are not able to capture its spatial pattern sufficiently. Here we present the incorporation of an explicit, dynamic representation of diazotrophic cyanobacteria and the corresponding nitrogen fixation in the global ocean biogeochemical model HAMOCC (Hamburg Ocean Carbon Cycle model), which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth system model (MPI-ESM). The parameterization of the diazotrophic growth is thereby based on available knowledge about the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp., which is considered as the most significant pelagic nitrogen fixer. Evaluation against observations shows that the model successfully reproduces the main spatial distribution of cyanobacteria and nitrogen fixation, covering large parts of the tropical and subtropical oceans. Besides the role of cyanobacteria in marine biogeochemical cycles, their capacity to form extensive surface blooms induces a number of bio-physical feedback mechanisms in the Earth system. The processes driving these interactions, which are related to the alteration of heat absorption, surface albedo and momentum input by wind, are incorporated in the biogeochemical and physical model of the MPI-ESM in order to investigate their impacts on a global scale. First preliminary results will be shown.

  17. One technique for refining the global Earth gravity models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koneshov, V. N.; Nepoklonov, V. B.; Polovnev, O. V.

    2017-01-01

    The results of the theoretical and experimental research on the technique for refining the global Earth geopotential models such as EGM2008 in the continental regions are presented. The discussed technique is based on the high-resolution satellite data for the Earth's surface topography which enables the allowance for the fine structure of the Earth's gravitational field without the additional gravimetry data. The experimental studies are conducted by the example of the new GGMplus global gravity model of the Earth with a resolution about 0.5 km, which is obtained by expanding the EGM2008 model to degree 2190 with the corrections for the topograohy calculated from the SRTM data. The GGMplus and EGM2008 models are compared with the regional geoid models in 21 regions of North America, Australia, Africa, and Europe. The obtained estimates largely support the possibility of refining the global geopotential models such as EGM2008 by the procedure implemented in GGMplus, particularly in the regions with relatively high elevation difference.

  18. Global Earth Response to Loading by Ocean Tide Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Estes, R. H.; Strayer, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    Mathematical and programming techniques to numerically calculate Earth response to global semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tide models were developed. Global vertical crustal deformations were evaluated for M sub 2, S sub 2, N sub 2, K sub 2, K sub 1, O sub 1, and P sub 1 ocean tide loading, while horizontal deformations were evaluated for the M sub 2 tidal load. Tidal gravity calculations were performed for M sub 2 tidal loads, and strain tensor elements were evaluated for M sub 2 loads. The M sub 2 solution used for the ocean tide included the effects of self-gravitation and crustal loading.

  19. Comparing global soil models to soil carbon profile databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koven, C. D.; Harden, J. W.; He, Y.; Lawrence, D. M.; Nave, L. E.; O'Donnell, J. A.; Treat, C.; Sulman, B. N.; Kane, E. S.

    2015-12-01

    As global soil models begin to consider the dynamics of carbon below the surface layers, it is crucial to assess the realism of these models. We focus on the vertical profiles of soil C predicted across multiple biomes form the Community Land Model (CLM4.5), using different values for a parameter that controls the rate of decomposition at depth versus at the surface, and compare these to observationally-derived diagnostics derived from the International Soil Carbon Database (ISCN) to assess the realism of model predictions of carbon depthattenuation, and the ability of observations to provide a constraint on rates of decomposition at depth.

  20. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

  1. Global Biogeochemistry Models and Global Carbon Cycle Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Covey, C; Caldeira, K; Guilderson, T; Cameron-Smith, P; Govindasamy, B; Swanston, C; Wickett, M; Mirin, A; Bader, D

    2005-05-27

    The climate modeling community has long envisioned an evolution from physical climate models to ''earth system'' models that include the effects of biology and chemistry, particularly those processes related to the global carbon cycle. The widely reproduced Box 3, Figure 1 from the 2001 IPCC Scientific Assessment schematically describes that evolution. The community generally accepts the premise that understanding and predicting global and regional climate change requires the inclusion of carbon cycle processes in models to fully simulate the feedbacks between the climate system and the carbon cycle. Moreover, models will ultimately be employed to predict atmospheric concentrations of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases as a function of anthropogenic and natural processes, such as industrial emissions, terrestrial carbon fixation, sequestration, land use patterns, etc. Nevertheless, the development of coupled climate-carbon models with demonstrable quantitative skill will require a significant amount of effort and time to understand and validate their behavior at both the process level and as integrated systems. It is important to consider objectively whether the currently proposed strategies to develop and validate earth system models are optimal, or even sufficient, and whether alternative strategies should be pursued. Carbon-climate models are going to be complex, with the carbon cycle strongly interacting with many other components. Off-line process validation will be insufficient. As was found in coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs, feedbacks between model components can amplify small errors and uncertainties in one process to produce large biases in the simulated climate. The persistent tropical western Pacific Ocean ''double ITCZ'' and upper troposphere ''cold pole'' problems are examples. Finding and fixing similar types of problems in coupled carbon-climate models especially will be difficult, given the lack of observations required for diagnosis and validation

  2. [Global Atmospheric Chemistry/Transport Modeling and Data-Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prinn, Ronald G.

    1999-01-01

    This grant supported a global atmospheric chemistry/transport modeling and data- analysis project devoted to: (a) development, testing, and refining of inverse methods for determining regional and global transient source and sink strengths for trace gases; (b) utilization of these inverse methods which use either the Model for Atmospheric Chemistry and Transport (MATCH) which is based on analyzed observed winds or back- trajectories calculated from these same winds for determining regional and global source and sink strengths for long-lived trace gases important in ozone depletion and the greenhouse effect; (c) determination of global (and perhaps regional) average hydroxyl radical concentrations using inverse methods with multiple "titrating" gases; and (d) computation of the lifetimes and spatially resolved destruction rates of trace gases using 3D models. Important ultimate goals included determination of regional source strengths of important biogenic/anthropogenic trace gases and also of halocarbons restricted by the Montreal Protocol and its follow-on agreements, and hydrohalocarbons now used as alternatives to the above restricted halocarbons.

  3. Global optical model potential for A=3 projectiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pang, D. Y.; Roussel-Chomaz, P.; Savajols, H.; Varner, R. L.; Wolski, R.

    2009-02-01

    A global optical model potential (GDP08) for He3 projectiles has been obtained by simultaneously fitting the elastic scattering data of He3 from targets of 40⩽AT⩽209 at incident energies of 30⩽Einc⩽217 MeV. Uncertainties and correlation coefficients between the global potential parameters were obtained by using the bootstrap statistical method. GDP08 was found to satisfactorily account for the elastic scattering of H3 as well, which makes it a global optical potential for the A=3 nuclei. Optical model calculations using the GDP08 global potential are compared with the experimental angular distributions of differential cross sections for He3-nucleus and H3-nucleus scattering from different targets of 6⩽AT⩽232 at incident energies of 4⩽Einc⩽450 MeV. The optical potential for the doubly-magic nucleus Ca40, the low-energy correction to the real potential for nuclei with 58≲AT≲120 at Einc<30 MeV, the comparison with double-folding model calculations and the CH89 potential, and the spin-orbit potential parameters are discussed.

  4. Accounting for agriculture in modelling the global terrestrial carbon cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bondeau, A.; Smith, P.; Schaphoff, S.; Zaehle, S.; Smith, B.; Sitch, S.; Gerten, D.; Schröder, B.; Lucht, W.; Cramer, W.

    2003-04-01

    Among the different approaches that investigate the role of the terrestrial biosphere within the global carbon cycle, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool. They represent the major biogeochemical mechanisms (carbon and water fluxes), depending on climate and soil, in order to simulate vegetation type (tree/grass, evergreen/deciduous, etc) as well as ecosystem function. The models should be validated for different features at various scales, in order to be used to assess the future terrestrial productivity in relation to climate change scenarios. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model (Sitch et al. 2002) is one of the few existing DGVMs, from which some interesting features have been validated like the seasonal atmospheric CO2 concentrations as measured at the global network of monitoring stations, the increase of the growing season length in the northern areas (Lucht et al. 2002), the runoff of large catchment (Gerten et al. Nice 2003, session HS25). In agreement with other models, LPJ estimates that the terrestrial biosphere is currently a carbon sink that will reduce in the middle of the century because of climate change (Cramer et al. 2000). However, regarding the terrestrial productivity, land use and cover change might be even more important than climate change. Until now, none of the global vegetation models were considering agriculture, or in the best case, agricultural areas were represented as a grassland. We describe the first implementation of crop parameterization within LPJ. As compared to natural vegetation, the main features of crops that must be accounted for in a global vegetation model are: i) the specific phenology, related to the sowing date, ii) the farming practices (nutrient inputs, irrigation), iii) the man-made dynamics (harvest, choice of variety, crop rotation). In a first step we consider the 8 crops types for which a global land cover data set is available for the 20th Century (RIVM). A simple phenological model

  5. Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Graaf, Inge; van Beek, Rens; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Wada, Yoshi; Bierkens, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater forms an integral part of the global hydrological cycle and is the world's largest accessible source of fresh water to satisfy human water needs. It buffers variable recharge rates over time, thereby effectively sustaining river flows in times of drought as well as evaporation in areas with shallow water tables. Moreover, although lateral groundwater flows are often slow, they cross topographic and administrative boundaries at appreciable rates. Despite the importance of groundwater, most global scale hydrological models do not consider surface water-groundwater interactions or include a lateral groundwater flow component. The main reason of this omission is the lack of consistent global-scale hydrogeological information needed to arrive at a more realistic representation of the groundwater system, i.e. including information on aquifer depths and the presence of confining layers. The latter holds vital information on the accessibility and quality of the global groundwater resource. In this study we developed a high resolution (5 arc-minutes) global scale transient groundwater model comprising confined and unconfined aquifers. This model is based on MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaugh, 1988) and coupled with the land-surface model PCR GLOBWB (van Beek et al., 2011) via recharge and surface water levels. Aquifers properties were based on newly derived estimates of aquifer depths (de Graaf et al., 2014b) and thickness of confining layers from an integration of lithological and topographical information. They were further parameterized using available global datasets on lithology (Hartmann and Moosdorf, 2011) and permeability (Gleeson et al., 2014). In a sensitivity analysis the model was run with various hydrogeological parameter settings, under natural recharge only. Scenarios of past groundwater abstractions and corresponding recharge (Wada et al., 2012, de Graaf et al. 2014a) were evaluated. The resulting estimates of groundwater depletion are lower than

  6. From local to global in F-theory model building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreas, Björn; Curio, Gottfried

    2010-09-01

    When locally engineering F-theory models some D7-branes for the gauge group factors are specified and matter is localized on the intersection curves of the compact parts of the world-volumes. In this note, we discuss to what extent one can draw conclusions about F-theory models by just restricting the attention locally to a particular seven-brane. Globally, the possible D7-branes are not independent from each other and the (compact part of the) D7-brane can have unavoidable intrinsic singularities. Many special intersecting loci which were not chosen by hand occur inevitably, notably codimension-three loci which are not intersections of matter curves. We describe these complications specifically in a global SU(5) model and also their impact on the tadpole cancellation condition.

  7. Lightning and convection parameterisations - uncertainties in global modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, H.; Jöckel, P.; Lelieveld, J.

    2007-05-01

    The simulation of convection, lightning and subsequent NOx emissions with global atmospheric chemistry models is associated with large uncertainties since these processes are heavily parameterised. Each parameterisation by itself has deficiencies while the combination substantially increases the uncertainties from the individual parameterisations. In this study several combinations of state-of-the-art convection and lightning parameterisations are used in model simulations with the global atmospheric chemistry model ECHAM5/MESSy and are evaluated against lightning observations. A wide range in the spatial and temporal variability of the simulated flash densities is found, attributed to both types of parameterisations. Some combinations perform well, whereas others are hardly applicable. In addition to resolution dependent rescaling parameters, each combination of lightning and convection schemes requires individual scaling to reproduce the observed flash frequencies. The resulting NOx profiles are inter-compared, but definite conclusions about the most realistic profiles can currently not be provided.

  8. A Global PLASIMO Model for H2O Chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tadayon Mousavi, Samaneh; Koelman, Peter; Graef, Wouter; Mihailova, Diana; van Dijk, Jan; EPG/ Applied Physics/ Eindhoven University of Technology Team; Plasma Matters B. V. Team

    2016-09-01

    Global warming is one of the critical contemporary problems for mankind. Transformation of CO2 into fuels, like CH4, that are transportable with the current infrastructure seems a promising idea to solve this threatening issue. The final aim of this research is to produce CH4 by using microwave plasma in CO2 -H2 O mixture and follow-up catalytic processes. In this contribution we present a global model for H2 O chemistry that is based on the PLASIMO plasma modeling toolkit. The time variation of the electron energy and the species' densities are calculated based on the source and loss terms in plasma due to chemical reactions. The short simulation times of such models allow an efficient assessment and chemical reduction of the H2O chemistry, which is required for full spatially resolved simulations.

  9. Towards a global model of the meteoric metal layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plane, John; Feng, Wuhu; Marsh, Daniel; Janches, Diego; Chipperfield, Martyn; Burrows, John P.; Sinnhuber, Miriam

    This paper will describe a major new initiative to develop a global model of the Na, Fe, Ca and Mg layers which are produced in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere by mete-oric ablation. The 4M (Multi-scale Modelling of Mesospheric Metals) project brings together three components: the injection of meteoric constituents into the atmosphere; the neutral and ion-molecule chemistries of these four metals; and a general circulation model of the whole atmosphere. The injection rates are calculated by combining the meteoric input function (MIF), an astro-nomical model which determines the meteoric size distribution and infall velocity distribution as a function of location and time, and a chemical ablation model (CABMOD), which calcu-lates the ablation rates of the different meteoric elements for a meteoroid of specified mass and velocity. The atmospheric chemistries of Na, Fe, Ca and Mg are now quite well understood: the kinetics of most of their important atmospheric reactions have been studied in the laboratory under appropriate conditions. This has enabled 1-dimensional models of these metallic layers to be produced, which compare satisfactorily with observations by ground-based lidar and space-borne spectrometers. The global model which has been chosen for the 4M project is the Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM), developed at NCAR (Boulder). The model extends from 0 -140 km and includes a full treatment of neutral chemistry and lower E region ion chemistry. We will present the initial results on modelling the global Na and Fe layers.

  10. A Comparative Analysis of Global Cropping Systems Models and Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, W. B.; You, L.; Wood, S.; Wood-Sichra, U.; Wu, W.

    2013-12-01

    Agricultural practices have dramatically altered the land cover of the Earth, but the spatial extent and intensity of these practices is often difficult to catalogue. Cropland accounts for nearly 15 million km2 of the Earth's land cover - amounting to 12% of the Earth's ice-free land surface - yet information on the distribution and performance of specific crops is often available only through national or sub-national statistics. While remote sensing products offer spatially disaggregated information, those currently available on a global scale are ill-suited for many applications due to the limited separation of crop types within the area classified as cropland. Recently, however, there have been multiple independent efforts to incorporate the detailed information available from statistical surveys with supplemental spatial information to produce a spatially explicit global dataset specific to individual cropss for the year 2000. While these datasets provide analysts and decision makers with improved information on global cropping systems, the final global cropping maps differ from one another substantially. This study aims to explore and quantify systematic similarities and differences between four major global cropping systems products: the monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRAC2000) dataset, the spatial production allocation model (SPAM), the global agro-ecological zone (GAEZ) dataset, and the dataset developed by Monfreda et al., 2008. The analysis explores not only the final cropping systems maps but also the interdependencies of each product, methodological differences and modeling assumptions, which will provide users with information vital for discerning between datasets in selecting a product appropriate for each intended application.

  11. The Synergistic Relationship Between Networks of Instruments and Global Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, A. J.; Makela, J. J.; Meriwether, J. W.; Conde, M.; Noto, J.; Thayer, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    The use of Global Ionosphere-Thermospheres Models to investigate the physics of the upper atmosphere is increasing. These models can provide a large-scale view of the system, and can provide time-varying 3D fields describing all state variables of the system, such as composition, winds and temperatures of both the neutrals and ions, as well as diagnostics such as forces and energies. Simultaneous access to all these fields allows far more complete characterization of postulated physical processes than is possible when limited solely to the quantities that can be observed. The problem with global models, though, is that the behavior of the model may not actually represent reality in all circumstances. In order to understand when and where this may occur, it is crucial that models be validated against a wide variety of spatially separated data. Ten years ago, the only spatially resolved observational data available for model validation came from satellites. However, for local measurements made from low orbit, it is often difficult to separate spatial variations from temporal changes. Now, with more networked ground-stations available, it is becoming more easy to validate models across regions or even across the globe. In this presentation, examples are shown of model comparisons with networked instruments, highlighting the power of these configurations. In addition, it is shown that the models can be used to help determine possible biases in data, given large numbers of stations.

  12. Statistical estimates to emulate yields from global gridded crop models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blanc, Elodie

    2016-04-01

    This study provides a statistical emulator of crop yields based on global gridded crop model simulations from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project Fast Track project. The ensemble of simulations is used to build a panel of annual crop yields from five crop models and corresponding monthly weather variables for over a century at the grid cell level. This dataset is then used to estimate, for each crop and gridded crop model, the statistical relationship between yields and temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide. This study considers a new functional form to better capture the non-linear response of yields to weather, especially for extreme temperature and precipitation events. In- and out-of-sample validations show that the statistical models are able to closely replicate crop yields projected by the crop models and perform well out-of-sample. This study therefore provides a reliable and accessible alternative to global gridded crop yield models. By emulating crop yields for several models using parsimonious equations, the tools will be useful for climate change impact assessments and to account for uncertainty in crop modeling.

  13. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence

    PubMed Central

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students’ needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students’ reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students’ awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students’ needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed. PMID:27679793

  14. An Effective Model for Improving Global Health Nursing Competence.

    PubMed

    Kang, Sun-Joo

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposed an effective model for improving global health nursing competence among undergraduate students. A descriptive case study was conducted by evaluation of four implemented programs by the author. All programs were conducted with students majoring in nursing and healthcare, where the researcher was a program director, professor, or facilitator. These programs were analyzed in terms of students' needs assessment, program design, and implementation and evaluation factors. The concept and composition of global nursing competence, identified within previous studies, were deemed appropriate in all of our programs. Program composition varied from curricular to extracurricular domains. During the implementation phase, some of the programs included non-Korean students to improve cultural diversity and overcome language barriers. Qualitative and quantitative surveys were conducted to assess program efficacy. Data triangulation from students' reflective journals was examined. Additionally, students' awareness regarding changes within global health nursing, improved critical thinking, cultural understanding, and global leadership skills were investigated pre- and post-program implementation. The importance of identifying students' needs regarding global nursing competence when developing appropriate curricula is discussed.

  15. A seawater desalination scheme for global hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanasaki, Naota; Yoshikawa, Sayaka; Kakinuma, Kaoru; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2016-10-01

    Seawater desalination is a practical technology for providing fresh water to coastal arid regions. Indeed, the use of desalination is rapidly increasing due to growing water demand in these areas and decreases in production costs due to technological advances. In this study, we developed a model to estimate the areas where seawater desalination is likely to be used as a major water source and the likely volume of production. The model was designed to be incorporated into global hydrological models (GHMs) that explicitly include human water usage. The model requires spatially detailed information on climate, income levels, and industrial and municipal water use, which represent standard input/output data in GHMs. The model was applied to a specific historical year (2005) and showed fairly good reproduction of the present geographical distribution and national production of desalinated water in the world. The model was applied globally to two periods in the future (2011-2040 and 2041-2070) under three distinct socioeconomic conditions, i.e., SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 1, SSP2, and SSP3. The results indicate that the usage of seawater desalination will have expanded considerably in geographical extent, and that production will have increased by 1.4-2.1-fold in 2011-2040 compared to the present (from 2.8 × 109 m3 yr-1 in 2005 to 4.0-6.0 × 109 m3 yr-1), and 6.7-17.3-fold in 2041-2070 (from 18.7 to 48.6 × 109 m3 yr-1). The estimated global costs for production for each period are USD 1.1-10.6 × 109 (0.002-0.019 % of the total global GDP), USD 1.6-22.8 × 109 (0.001-0.020 %), and USD 7.5-183.9 × 109 (0.002-0.100 %), respectively. The large spreads in these projections are primarily attributable to variations within the socioeconomic scenarios.

  16. Assessing global vegetation activity using spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulder, Vera L.; van Eck, Christel M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Regnier, Pierre A. G.

    2016-04-01

    This work demonstrates the potential of modelling vegetation activity using a hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model. This approach allows modelling changes in vegetation and climate simultaneous in space and time. Changes of vegetation activity such as phenology are modelled as a dynamic process depending on climate variability in both space and time. Additionally, differences in observed vegetation status can be contributed to other abiotic ecosystem properties, e.g. soil and terrain properties. Although these properties do not change in time, they do change in space and may provide valuable information in addition to the climate dynamics. The spatio-temporal Bayesian models were calibrated at a regional scale because the local trends in space and time can be better captured by the model. The regional subsets were defined according to the SREX segmentation, as defined by the IPCC. Each region is considered being relatively homogeneous in terms of large-scale climate and biomes, still capturing small-scale (grid-cell level) variability. Modelling within these regions is hence expected to be less uncertain due to the absence of these large-scale patterns, compared to a global approach. This overall modelling approach allows the comparison of model behavior for the different regions and may provide insights on the main dynamic processes driving the interaction between vegetation and climate within different regions. The data employed in this study encompasses the global datasets for soil properties (SoilGrids), terrain properties (Global Relief Model based on SRTM DEM and ETOPO), monthly time series of satellite-derived vegetation indices (GIMMS NDVI3g) and climate variables (Princeton Meteorological Forcing Dataset). The findings proved the potential of a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling approach for assessing vegetation dynamics, at a regional scale. The observed interrelationships of the employed data and the different spatial and temporal trends support

  17. A Local and Global Function Model of the Liver

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Hesheng; Feng, Mary; Jackson, Andrew; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Cao, Yue

    2015-01-01

    Purposes To develop a local and global function model in the liver based upon regional and organ function measurements to support individualized adaptive radiation therapy (RT). Methods and Materials A local and global model for liver function was developed to include both functional volume and the effect of functional variation of subunits. Adopting the assumption of parallel architecture in the liver, the global function was composed of a sum of local function probabilities of subunits, varying between 0 and 1. The model was fit to 59 datasets of liver regional and organ function measures from 23 patients obtained prior to, during and 1 month after RT. The local function probabilities of subunits were modeled by a sigmoid function in relating to MRI-derived portal venous perfusion values. The global function was fitted to a logarithm of an indocyanine green retention rate at 15 min (an overall liver function measure). Cross-validation was performed by leave-m-out tests. The model was further evaluated by fitting to the data divided based upon whether the patients had hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or not. Results The liver function model showed that 1) a perfusion value of 68.6 ml/(100g·min) yielded a local function probability of 0.5; 2) the probability reached 0.9 at a perfusion value of 98 ml/(100g·min), and 3) at a probability of 0.03 (corresponding perfusion of 38 ml/(100g·min)) or lower, the contribution to global function was lost. Cross-validations showed that the model parameters were stable. The model fitted to the data from the patients with HCC indicated that the same amount of portal venous perfusion was translated into less local function probability than the patients with non-HCC tumors. Conclusions The developed liver function model could provide a means to better assess individual and regional dose responses of hepatic functions, and provide guidance for individualized treatment planning of RT. PMID:26700712

  18. Global Carbon Cycle Modeling in GISS ModelE2 GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.

    2014-12-01

    Consistent and accurate modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle remains one of the main challenges for the Earth System Models. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 General Circulation Model (GCM) was recently equipped with a complete Global Carbon Cycle algorithm, consisting of three integrated components: Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), Ocean Biogeochemistry Module and atmospheric CO2 tracer. Ent TBM provides CO2 fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere. Its biophysics utilizes the well-known photosynthesis functions of Farqhuar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and Farqhuar and von Caemmerer, and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Its phenology is based on temperature, drought, and radiation fluxes, and growth is controlled via allocation of carbon from labile carbohydrate reserve storage to different plant components. Soil biogeochemistry is based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford (CASA) model of Potter et al. Ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. Atmospheric CO2 is advected with a quadratic upstream algorithm implemented in atmospheric part of ModelE2. Here we present the results for pre-industrial equilibrium and modern transient simulations and provide comparison to available observations. We also discuss the process of validation and tuning of particular algorithms used in the model.

  19. A Process-based Model of Global Lichen Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, P.; Kleidon, A.

    2012-04-01

    Lichens and biotic crusts are abundant in most ecosystems of the world. They are the main autotrophic organisms in many deserts and at high altitudes and they can also be found in large amounts as epiphytes in some forests, especially in the boreal zone. They are characterised by a great variety of physiological properties, such as growth form, productivity or color. Due to the vast land surface areas covered by lichens, they may contribute significantly to the global terrestrial net carbon uptake. Furthermore, they potentially play an important role with respect to nutrient cycles in some ecosystems and they have the ability to enhance weathering at the surface on which they grow. A possible way to quantify these processes at the global scale is presented here in form of a process-based lichen model. This approach is based on the concepts used in many dynamical vegetation models and extends these methods to account for the specific properties of lichens. Hence, processes such as photosynthesis, respiration and water exchange are implemented as well as important trade-offs like photosynthetic capacity versus respiratory load and water content versus CO2 conductivity. The great physiological variability of lichens is incorporated directly into the model through ranges of possible parameter values, which are randomly sampled. In this way, many artificial lichen "species" are created and climate then acts as a filter to determine the species which are able to survive permanently. By averaging over the surviving "species", the model predicts lichen productivity as a function of climate input data such as temperature, radiation and precipitation at the global scale. Consequently, the contribution of lichens to the global carbon balance can be quantified. Moreover, global patterns of lichen biodiversity and other properties can be illustrated. The model can be extended to account for the nutrient dynamics of lichens, such as nitrogen fixation and the acquisition and

  20. Understanding the processes of tropical cyclogenesis in global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Figueroa, Marangelly

    This thesis is the result of research activity performed from 2005 to 2009 at the Laboratory for Atmospheres of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), under the guidance of Dr. Oreste Reale. The present study describes some fundamental properties occurring in global models in order to spontaneously produce tropical cyclones in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA). The NASA finite-volume General Circulation Model (GEOS-4 and GEOS-5), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) global model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Nature Run outputs were analyzed in a set of diagnostic studies to understand how different global models with different configurations can produce tropical cyclogenesis. Diagnostics performed were classified in two groups according to the experimental configurations: simulations dependent on initializations (GEOS-4, GEOS-5 - version 2.0, and GFS) and free running simulations (ECMWF Nature Run). Objectives methods were developed to identify some controlling factors in the development of tropical cyclones and were applied to all the data generated for this study, focusing mainly on the ETNA. Global model outputs of nine tropical systems during three Atlantic hurricane seasons (2004-2006) were used and compared. The verification of the Kuo necessary condition for barotropic instability and the kinetic energy transfer across spatial scales are found to be important mechanisms by which tropical cyclogenesis can develop in global models. The main result of this work is that a vertically-aligned barotropically unstable column appears during cyclogenesis, predominantly controlled by the large scale forcing. With the exception of the Nature Run, which is not dependent on initialization, the actual roles of the Data Assimilation System (DAS) and the forecasting system cannot be rigorously separated in these experiments. Therefore, in the third part of this thesis the impact

  1. A Quasi-Global Landslide Model Using Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farahmand, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2012-12-01

    Each year, landslides cause thousands of casualties and billions of dollars in damages across the world. Landslides are triggered by heavy precipitation and/or earthquakes. Typically, Hurricanes and Typhoons lead to extensive rainfall over several days and thus, may trigger landslides. Thus far, various statistical, analytical and numerical approaches have been introduced to model landslides. The aim of this study is to develop a global landslide prediction model. In the first step, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) landslide inventory along with satellite-based precipitation data, 250 m slope, land cover information are used to develop the model. This landslide model utilizes the power of Support Vector Machines (SVM), which is a learning algorithm that can classify landslide events. 70% of the NASA/GSFC landslide inventory data were used for model training and 30% for validation and verification. The results of 200 random sub-samples of available landslide observations (70% training and 30% validation) revealed that the suggested model predicted historical landslides reliably. The average error of 200 iterations of landslide prediction was estimated approximately 2%, with approximately 1% false landslide events. Efforts are underway to further develop this model into a global landslide prediction model.

  2. Bioavailable atmospheric phosphorous supply to the global ocean: a 3-D global modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Nenes, Athanasios; Baker, Alex R.; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-12-01

    The atmospheric cycle of phosphorus (P) is parameterized here in a state-of-the-art global 3-D chemistry transport model, taking into account primary emissions of total P (TP) and soluble P (DP) associated with mineral dust, combustion particles from natural and anthropogenic sources, bioaerosols, sea spray and volcanic aerosols. For the present day, global TP emissions are calculated to be roughly 1.33 Tg-P yr-1, with the mineral sources contributing more than 80 % to these emissions. The P solubilization from mineral dust under acidic atmospheric conditions is also parameterized in the model and is calculated to contribute about one-third (0.14 Tg-P yr-1) of the global DP atmospheric source. To our knowledge, a unique aspect of our global study is the explicit modeling of the evolution of phosphorus speciation in the atmosphere. The simulated present-day global annual DP deposition flux is 0.45 Tg-P yr-1 (about 40 % over oceans), showing a strong spatial and temporal variability. Present-day simulations of atmospheric P aerosol concentrations and deposition fluxes are satisfactory compared with available observations, indicating however an underestimate of about 70 % on current knowledge of the sources that drive the P atmospheric cycle. Sensitivity simulations using preindustrial (year 1850) anthropogenic and biomass burning emission scenarios showed a present-day increase of 75 % in the P solubilization flux from mineral dust, i.e., the rate at which P is converted into soluble forms, compared to preindustrial times, due to increasing atmospheric acidity over the last 150 years. Future reductions in air pollutants due to the implementation of air-quality regulations are expected to decrease the P solubilization flux from mineral dust by about 30 % in the year 2100 compared to the present day. Considering, however, that all the P contained in bioaerosols is readily available for uptake by marine organisms, and also accounting for all other DP sources, a total

  3. Simulation of Aerosols and Chemistry with a Unified Global Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, Mian

    2004-01-01

    This project is to continue the development of the global simulation capabilities of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry and aerosols in a unified global model. This is a part of our overall investigation of aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction. In the past year, we have enabled the tropospheric chemistry simulations based on the GEOS-CHEM model, and added stratospheric chemical reactions into the GEOS-CHEM such that a globally unified troposphere-stratosphere chemistry and transport can be simulated consistently without any simplifications. The tropospheric chemical mechanism in the GEOS-CHEM includes 80 species and 150 reactions. 24 tracers are transported, including O3, NOx, total nitrogen (NOy), H2O2, CO, and several types of hydrocarbon. The chemical solver used in the GEOS-CHEM model is a highly accurate sparse-matrix vectorized Gear solver (SMVGEAR). The stratospheric chemical mechanism includes an additional approximately 100 reactions and photolysis processes. Because of the large number of total chemical reactions and photolysis processes and very different photochemical regimes involved in the unified simulation, the model demands significant computer resources that are currently not practical. Therefore, several improvements will be taken, such as massive parallelization, code optimization, or selecting a faster solver. We have also continued aerosol simulation (including sulfate, dust, black carbon, organic carbon, and sea-salt) in the global model to cover most of year 2002. These results have been made available to many groups worldwide and accessible from the website http://code916.gsfc.nasa.gov/People/Chin/aot.html.

  4. Global modeling of nitrate and ammonium aerosols using EQSAM3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, L.; Penner, J. E.

    2009-12-01

    Atmospheric aerosols, particles suspending in air, are important as they affect human health, air quality, and visibility as well as climate. Sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, chloride and sodium are among the most important inorganic aerosol species in the atmosphere. These compounds are hygroscopic and absorb water under almost all ambient environmental conditions. The uptake of water alters the aerosol size, and causes water to become the constituent with the largest atmospheric aerosol mass, especially when the aerosols grow into fog, haze or clouds. Furthermore, several global model studies have demonstrated that rapid increases in nitrogen emissions could produce enough nitrate in aerosols to offset the expected decline in sulfate forcing by 2100 for the extreme IPCC A2 scenario (Bauer et al., 2007). Although nitrate and ammonium were identified as significant anthropogenic sources of aerosols by a number of modeling studies, most global aerosol models still exclude ammonium-nitrate when the direct aerosol forcing is studied. In this study, the computationally efficient equilibrium model, EQSAM3, is incorporated into the UMICH-IMPACT-nitrate model using the hybrid dynamical solution method (Feng and Penner, 2007). The partitioning of nitrate and ammonium along with the corresponding water uptake is evaluated by comparing the model to the EQUISOLVE II method used in Feng and Penner (2007). The model is also evaluated by comparison with the AERONET data base and satellite-based aerosol optical depths.

  5. Lightning and convection parameterisations - uncertainties in global modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, H.; Jöckel, P.; Lelieveld, J.

    2007-09-01

    The simulation of convection, lightning and consequent NOx emissions with global atmospheric chemistry models is associated with large uncertainties since these processes are heavily parameterised. Each parameterisation by itself has deficiencies and the combination of these substantially increases the uncertainties compared to the individual parameterisations. In this study several combinations of state-of-the-art convection and lightning parameterisations are used in simulations with the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy, and are evaluated against lightning observations. A wide range in the spatial and temporal variability of the simulated flash densities is found, attributed to both types of parameterisations. Some combinations perform well, whereas others are hardly applicable. In addition to resolution dependent rescaling parameters, each combination of lightning and convection schemes requires individual scaling to reproduce the observed flash frequencies. The resulting NOx profiles are inter-compared, however definite conclusions about the most realistic profiles can currently not be drawn.

  6. On the global dynamics of a chronic myelogenous leukemia model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krishchenko, Alexander P.; Starkov, Konstantin E.

    2016-04-01

    In this paper we analyze some features of global dynamics of a three-dimensional chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) model with the help of the stability analysis and the localization method of compact invariant sets. The behavior of CML model is defined by concentrations of three cellpopulations circulating in the blood: naive T cells, effector T cells specific to CML and CML cancer cells. We prove that the dynamics of the CML system around the tumor-free equilibrium point is unstable. Further, we compute ultimate upper bounds for all three cell populations and provide the existence conditions of the positively invariant polytope. One ultimate lower bound is obtained as well. Moreover, we describe the iterative localization procedure for refining localization bounds; this procedure is based on cyclic using of localizing functions. Applying this procedure we obtain conditions under which the internal tumor equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical analyses are supplied by results of the numerical simulation.

  7. Global land use data for integrated assessment modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Ramankutty, Navin

    2005-12-12

    Changes in land use and land cover have been one of the major drivers of global change over the last three centuries. Detailed spatially-explicit data sets characterizing these historical land cover changes are now emerging. By synthesizing remotely-sensed land cover classification data sets with historical land use census data, our research group has developed comprehensive databases of historical land use and land cover change. Moreover, we are building estimates of the land suitability for agriculture to predict the constraints on future land use. In this project, we have interacted with the Global Trade and Analysis Project (GTAP) at Purdue University, to adapt our land use data for use with the GTAP database, a baseline database widely used by the integrated assessment modeling community. Moreover, we have developed an interactive website for providing these newly emerging land use data products for the integrated assessment (IA) community and to the climate modeling community.

  8. Flood hazard maps from SAR data and global hydrodynamic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giustarini, Laura; Chini, Marci; Hostache, Renaud; Matgen, Patrick; Pappenberger, Florian; Bally, Phillippe

    2015-04-01

    With flood consequences likely to amplify because of growing population and ongoing accumulation of assets in flood-prone areas, global flood hazard and risk maps are greatly needed for improving flood preparedness at large scale. At the same time, with the rapidly growing archives of SAR images of floods, there is a high potential of making use of these images for global and regional flood management. In this framework, an original method is presented to integrate global flood inundation modeling and microwave remote sensing. It takes advantage of the combination of the time and space continuity of a global inundation model with the high spatial resolution of satellite observations. The availability of model simulations over a long time period offers the opportunity to estimate flood non-exceedance probabilities in a robust way. The probabilities can later be attributed to historical satellite observations. SAR-derived flood extent maps with their associated non-exceedance probabilities are then combined to generate flood hazard maps with a spatial resolution equal to that of the satellite images, which is most of the time higher than that of a global inundation model. The method can be applied to any area of interest in the world, provided that a sufficient number of relevant remote sensing images are available. We applied the method on the Severn River (UK) and on the Zambezi River (Mozambique), where large archives of Envisat flood images can be exploited. The global ECMWF flood inundation model is considered for computing the statistics of extreme events. A comparison with flood hazard maps estimated with in situ measured discharge is carried out. An additional analysis has been performed on the Severn River, using high resolution SAR data from the COSMO-SkyMed SAR constellation, acquired for a single flood event (one flood map per day between 27/11/2012 and 4/12/2012). The results showed that it is vital to observe the peak of the flood. However, a single

  9. A Model Study of Global Variability in Mesospheric Cloudiness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 501–513 A model study of global variability in mesospheric cloudiness David E. Siskind...produced clouds ARTICLE IN PRESS D.E. Siskind et al. / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar - Terrestrial Physics 67 (2005) 501–513502 between 82 and 84km at...2003). ARTICLE IN PRESS D.E. Siskind et al. / Journal of Atmospheric and Solar

  10. Modeling the Terrestrial Contribution to the Global Methane Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Amy Tetlow

    Most of the methane emitted into the atmosphere is produced microbiologically. Methanogenic bacteria in soils and sediments of natural wetlands are one of the largest sources of methane. The activity of these organisms is closely linked to environmental conditions. A climate -driven model of methane flux across the terrestrial surface is developed for analysis of atmosphere-biosphere interactions. The methane-flux model is based on temperature response of bacterial populations, and the requirement of anaerobic conditions for growth of methanogenic bacteria or the requirement of aerobic conditions for growth of methane-oxidizing bacteria. A biological inertia factor is also used to reflect dependence on previous bacterial conditions. Model parameters are fit for characteristic ecosystems based on the availability of appropriate time -series data. Using air temperature and precipitation climatologies as both direct and indirect model input, monthly methane fluxes are calculated for muskeg tundra, wet-meadow tundra, temperate and tropical wetlands, cool woods, and tropical savanna. Ecosystem models performed well in diverse environments. Annual -flux totals based on these models are consistent with published methane-budget estimates. To evaluate the global distribution of methane flux, emission estimates from rice cultivation, grazing animals, termites, biomass burning, and fossil fuel extraction and transportation are combined with the ecosystem-model estimates. The resulting global distribution of methane flux shows that the mid-latitudes of the northern hemisphere are the strongest methane source zone. Summer and fall are the most important emission seasons for in any latitudinal zone. My estimated atmospheric residence time of methane, calculated using this global-flux distribution, also agrees well with other published values.

  11. Global model for the lithospheric strength and effective elastic thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesauro, Magdala; Kaban, Mikhail K.; Cloetingh, Sierd A. P. L.

    2013-08-01

    Global distribution of the strength and effective elastic thickness (Te) of the lithosphere are estimated using physical parameters from recent crustal and lithospheric models. For the Te estimation we apply a new approach, which provides a possibility to take into account variations of Young modulus (E) within the lithosphere. In view of the large uncertainties affecting strength estimates, we evaluate global strength and Te distributions for possible end-member 'hard' (HRM) and a 'soft' (SRM) rheology models of the continental crust. Temperature within the lithosphere has been estimated using a recent tomography model of Ritsema et al. (2011), which has much higher horizontal resolution than previous global models. Most of the strength is localized in the crust for the HRM and in the mantle for the SRM. These results contribute to the long debates on applicability of the "crème brulée" or "jelly-sandwich" model for the lithosphere structure. Changing from the SRM to HRM turns most of the continental areas from the totally decoupled mode to the fully coupled mode of the lithospheric layers. However, in the areas characterized by a high thermal regime and thick crust, the layers remain decoupled even for the HRM. At the same time, for the inner part of the cratons the lithospheric layers are coupled in both models. Therefore, rheological variations lead to large changes in the integrated strength and Te distribution in the regions characterized by intermediate thermal conditions. In these areas temperature uncertainties have a greater effect, since this parameter principally determines rheological behavior. Comparison of the Te estimates for both models with those determined from the flexural loading and spectral analysis shows that the 'hard' rheology is likely applicable for cratonic areas, whereas the 'soft' rheology is more representative for young orogens.

  12. Climate Models from the Joint Global Change Research Institute

    DOE Data Explorer

    Staff at the Joint Institute develop and use models to simulate the economic and physical impacts of global change policy options. The GCAM, for example, gives analysts insight into how regional and national economies might respond to climate change mitigation policies including carbon taxes, carbon trading, and accelerated deployment of energy technology. Three available models are Phoenix, GCAM, and EPIC. Phoenix is a global, dynamic recursive, computable general equilibrium model that is solved in five-year time steps from 2005 through 2100 and divides the world into twenty-four regions. Each region includes twenty-six industrial sectors. Particular attention is paid to energy production in Phoenix. There are nine electricity-generating technologies (coal, natural gas, oil, biomass, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, and geothermal) and four additional energy commodities: crude oil, refined oil products, coal, and natural gas. Phoenix is designed to answer economic questions related to international climate and energy policy and international trade. Phoenix replaces the Second Generation Model (SGM) that was formerly used for general equilibrium analysis at JGCRI. GCAM is the Global Change Assessment Model, a partial equilibrium model of the world with 14 regions. GCAM operates in 5 year time steps from 1990 to 2095 and is designed to examine long-term changes in the coupled energy, agriculture/land-use, and climate system. GCAM includes a 151-region agriculture land-use module and a reduced form carbon cycle and climate module in addition to its incorporation of demographics, resources, energy production and consumption. The model has been used extensively in a number of assessment and modeling activities such as the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF), the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program, and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and IPCC assessment reports. GCAM is now freely available as a community model. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) Model

  13. A global model of carbon-nutrient interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moore, Berrien, III; Gildea, Patricia; Vorosmarty, Charles; Mellilo, Jerry M.; Peterson, Bruce J.

    1985-01-01

    The global biogeochemical model presented has two primary objectives. First, it characterizes natural elemental cycles and their linkages for the four elements significant to Earth's biota: C, N, S, and P. Second, it describes changes in these cycles due to human activity. Global nutrient cycles were studied within the drainage basins of several major world rivers on each continent. The initial study region was the Mississippi drainage basin, concentrating on carbon and nitrogen. The model first establishes the nutrient budgets of the undisturbed ecosystems in a study region. It then uses a data set of land use histories for that region to document the changes in these budgets due to land uses. Nutrient movement was followed over time (1800 to 1980) for 30 ecosystems and 10 land use categories. A geographically referenced ecological information system (GREIS) was developed to manage the digital global data bases of 0.5 x 0.5 grid cells needed to run the model: potential vegetation, drainage basins, precipitation, runoff, contemporary land cover, and FAO soil maps of the world. The results show the contributions of land use categories to river nutrient loads on a continental scale; shifts in nutrient cycling patterns from closed, steady state systems to mobile transient or open, steady state systems; soil organic matter depletion patterns in U.S. agricultural lands; changing nutrient ratios due to land use changes; and the effect of using heavy fertilizer on aquatic systems.

  14. A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, D. I.; Prentice, I. C.; Harrison, S. P.; Wang, H.; Simard, M.; Fisher, J. B.; Willis, K. O.

    2013-05-01

    We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

  15. A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, D. I.; Prentice, I. Colin; Harrison, S. P.; Wang, H.; Simard, M.; Fisher, J. B.; Willis, K. O.

    2012-11-01

    We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover, composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), and the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). SDBM reproduces observed CO2 seasonal cycles, but its simulation of independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) is too high. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

  16. The 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, WenBin; Han, Jiancheng

    2016-04-01

    We provide an updated 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which is determined based on the shallow layer method (Shen 2006). We choose an inner surface S below the EGM2008 geoid, and the layer bounded by the inner surface S and the Earth's geographical surface E is referred to as the shallow layer. The Earth's geographical surface E is determined by the digital topographic model DTM2006.0 combining with the DNSC2008 mean sea surface. We determine the 3D shallow layer model (SLM) using the refined crust density model CRUST1.0-5min, which is an improved 5'×5' density model of the CRUST1.0 with taking into account the corrections of the areas covered by ice sheets and the land-ocean crossing regions. Based on the SLM and the gravity field EGM2008 defined outside the Earth's geographical surface E, we determine the gravity field EGM2008S defined in the region outside the inner surface S, extending the gravity field's definition domain from the domain outside E to the domain outside S. Based on the geodetic equation W(P)=W0, where W0 is the geopotential constant on the geoid, we determine a 5'×5' global geoid model GGM2016, which provides both the 5'×5' grid values and spherical harmonic coefficient expressions. Comparisons show that the GGM2016 fits the globally available GPS/leveling points better than the EGM2008 geoid. This study is supported by National 973 Project China (grant Nos. 2013CB733301 and 2013CB733305), NSFC (grant Nos. 41174011, 41210006, 41429401, 41128003, 41021061).

  17. Improved data for integrated modeling of global environmental change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2011-12-01

    The assessment of global environmental changes, their impact on human societies, and possible management options requires large-scale, integrated modeling efforts. These models have to link biophysical with socio-economic processes, and they have to take spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions into account. Land use change and freshwater use are two key research areas where spatial aggregation and the use of regional average numbers may lead to biased results. Useful insights can only be obtained if processes like economic globalization can be consistently linked to local environmental conditions and resource constraints (Lambin and Meyfroidt 2011). Spatially explicit modeling of environmental changes at the global scale has a long tradition in the natural sciences (Woodward et al 1995, Alcamo et al 1996, Leemans et al 1996). Socio-economic models with comparable spatial detail, e.g. on grid-based land use change, are much less common (Heistermann et al 2006), but are increasingly being developed (Popp et al 2011, Schneider et al 2011). Spatially explicit models require spatially explicit input data, which often constrains their development and application at the global scale. The amount and quality of available data on environmental conditions is growing fast—primarily due to improved earth observation methods. Moreover, systematic efforts for collecting and linking these data across sectors are on the way (www.earthobservations.org). This has, among others, also helped to provide consistent databases on different land cover and land use types (Erb et al 2007). However, spatially explicit data on specific anthropogenic driving forces of global environmental change are still scarce—also because these cannot be collected with satellites or other devices. The basic data on socio-economic driving forces, i.e. population density and wealth (measured as gross domestic product per capita), have been prepared for spatially explicit analyses (CIESIN, IFPRI

  18. Global Earthquake Activity Rate models based on version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bird, P.; Kreemer, C.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    Global Earthquake Activity Rate (GEAR) models have usually been based on either relative tectonic motion (fault slip rates and/or distributed strain rates), or on smoothing of seismic catalogs. However, a hybrid approach appears to perform better than either parent, at least in some retrospective tests. First, we construct a Tectonic ('T') forecast of shallow (≤ 70 km) seismicity based on global plate-boundary strain rates from version 2 of the Global Strain Rate Map. Our approach is the SHIFT (Seismic Hazard Inferred From Tectonics) method described by Bird et al. [2010, SRL], in which the character of the strain rate tensor (thrusting and/or strike-slip and/or normal) is used to select the most comparable type of plate boundary for calibration of the coupled seismogenic lithosphere thickness and corner magnitude. One difference is that activity of offshore plate boundaries is spatially smoothed using empirical half-widths [Bird & Kagan, 2004, BSSA] before conversion to seismicity. Another is that the velocity-dependence of coupling in subduction and continental-convergent boundaries [Bird et al., 2009, BSSA] is incorporated. Another forecast component is the smoothed-seismicity ('S') forecast model of [Kagan & Jackson, 1994, JGR; Kagan & Jackson, 2010, GJI], which was based on optimized smoothing of the shallow part of the GCMT catalog, years 1977-2004. Both forecasts were prepared for threshold magnitude 5.767. Then, we create hybrid forecasts by one of 3 methods: (a) taking the greater of S or T; (b) simple weighted-average of S and T; or (c) log of the forecast rate is a weighted average of the logs of S and T. In methods (b) and (c) there is one free parameter, which is the fractional contribution from S. All hybrid forecasts are normalized to the same global rate. Pseudo-prospective tests for 2005-2012 (using versions of S and T calibrated on years 1977-2004) show that many hybrid models outperform both parents (S and T), and that the optimal weight on S

  19. Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 Version: Users Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justh, H. L.

    2014-01-01

    This Technical Memorandum (TM) presents the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2010 (Mars-GRAM 2010) and its new features. Mars-GRAM is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Applications include systems design, performance analysis, and operations planning for aerobraking, entry, descent and landing, and aerocapture. Additionally, this TM includes instructions on obtaining the Mars-GRAM source code and data files as well as running Mars-GRAM. It also contains sample Mars-GRAM input and output files and an example of how to incorporate Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

  20. Current plate motions. [continental groupings and global modelling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Demets, C.; Gordon, R. G.; Argus, D. F.; Stein, S.

    1990-01-01

    A global plate motion model, named NUVEL-1, which describes current plate motions between 12 rigid plates is described, with special attention given to the method, data, and assumptions used. Tectonic implications of the patterns that emerged from the results are discussed. It is shown that wide plate boundary zones can form not only within the continental lithosphere but also within the oceanic lithosphere; e.g., between the Indian and Australian plates and between the North American and South American plates. Results of the model also suggest small but significant diffuse deformation of the oceanic lithosphere, which may be confined to small awkwardly shaped salients of major plates.

  1. Modeling the spatial spread of infectious diseases: the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility computational model

    PubMed Central

    Balcan, Duygu; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2010-01-01

    Here we present the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. We discuss the flexible structure of the model that is open to the inclusion of different disease structures and local intervention policies. This makes GLEaM suitable for the computational modeling and anticipation of the spatio-temporal patterns of global epidemic spreading, the understanding of historical epidemics, the assessment of the role of human mobility in shaping global epidemics, and the analysis of mitigation and containment scenarios. PMID:21415939

  2. Multi-objective global optimization for hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yapo, Patrice Ogou; Gupta, Hoshin Vijai; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    1998-01-01

    The development of automated (computer-based) calibration methods has focused mainly on the selection of a single-objective measure of the distance between the model-simulated output and the data and the selection of an automatic optimization algorithm to search for the parameter values which minimize that distance. However, practical experience with model calibration suggests that no single-objective function is adequate to measure the ways in which the model fails to match the important characteristics of the observed data. Given that some of the latest hydrologic models simulate several of the watershed output fluxes (e.g. water, energy, chemical constituents, etc.), there is a need for effective and efficient multi-objective calibration procedures capable of exploiting all of the useful information about the physical system contained in the measurement data time series. The MOCOM-UA algorithm, an effective and efficient methodology for solving the multiple-objective global optimization problem, is presented in this paper. The method is an extension of the successful SCE-UA single-objective global optimization algorithm. The features and capabilities of MOCOM-UA are illustrated by means of a simple hydrologic model calibration study.

  3. Aerosol impacts in the Met Office global NWP model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulcahy, Jane P.; Brooks, Malcolm E.; Milton, Sean F.

    2010-05-01

    An accurate representation of the direct and indirect effect of aerosols is of growing concern for global numerical weather prediction (NWP). Increased scattering and absorption of incoming shortwave (SW) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) fields due to the presence of aerosol layers in the atmosphere modifies the atmospheric heating profile and can affect large-scale circulation patterns. The current representation of aerosols in the global NWP configuration of the Met Office Unified ModelTM (MetUM) is based on a simple aerosol climatology (Cusack et al., 1998). Profiles of water soluble dust, soot, oceanic and stratospheric sulphate aerosols are described separately for land and ocean surfaces and are distributed over the boundary layer, free troposphere and stratosphere (sulphates only). While this improved the reflected SW radiative bias at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), there is evidence that the climatology is too absorbing leading to a temperature bias in the lower troposphere of approximately 0.5 K/day. Furthermore, the omission of the scattering and absorption properties of mineral dust and biomass burning aerosol particles in particular, is believed to be the principal cause of significant model biases (in the region of 50-56 W m-2) in both the model OLR at the TOA (Haywood et al., 2005) and the surface SW radiation fields (Milton et al., 2008). One of the objectives of the Global Aerosols (G-AER) component of the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) project is to evaluate the impact of an improved aerosol representation on the performance of global NWP models. In a stepwise approach of increasing the aerosol complexity in the MetUM, the Cusack climatology is being replaced by the CLASSIC (Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate) aerosol scheme, developed for the HadGEM (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model) climate model. CLASSIC includes representations of external mixtures of sulphate, black carbon, organic

  4. Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2007 (Earth-GRAM07)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leslie, Fred

    Engineering models of the atmosphere are used extensively by the aerospace community for design issues related to vehicle ascent and descent. The Earth Global Reference Atmosphere Model version 2007 (Earth-GRAM07) is the latest in this series and includes a number of new features. Like previous versions, Earth-GRAM07 provides both mean values and perturbations for density, temperature, pressure, and winds, as well as monthlyand geographically-varying trace constituent concentrations. From 0 km to 27 km, thermodynamics and winds are based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) climatology. For altitudes between 20 km and 120 km, the model uses data from the Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP). Above 120 km, Earth-GRAM07 now provides users with a choice of three thermosphere models: the Marshall Engineering Thermosphere (MET-2007) model; the Jacchia-Bowman 2006 thermosphere model (JB2006); and the Naval Research Labs Mass Spectrometer, Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRL MSIS E-00) with the associated Harmonic Wind Model (HWM-93). In place of the GUACA and MAP datasets, Earth-GRAM07 has the option of using the new 2006 revised Range Reference Atmosphere (RRA) data, the earlier (1983) RRA data, or the user may provide their own data as an auxiliary profile. Refinements of the perturbation model are also discussed which produce wind shears more similar to those observed at the Kennedy Space Center than the previous version Earth-GRAM99. In addition, the dispersions are more normally distributed, especially at the extremes.

  5. A New Global River Network Database for Macroscale Hydrologic modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Huan; Kimball, John S.; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Adler, Robert F.

    2012-09-28

    Coarse resolution (upscaled) river networks are critical inputs for runoff routing in macroscale hydrologic models. Recently, Wu et al. (2011) developed a hierarchical Dominant River Tracing (DRT) algorithm for automated extraction and spatial upscaling of basin flow directions and river networks using fine-scale hydrography inputs (e.g., flow direction, river networks, and flow accumulation). The DRT was initially applied using HYDRO1K baseline fine-scale hydrography inputs and the resulting upscaled global hydrography maps were produced at several spatial scales, and verified against other available regional and global datasets. New baseline fine-scale hydrography data from HydroSHEDS are now available for many regions and provide superior scale and quality relative to HYDRO1K. However, HydroSHEDS does not cover regions above 60°N. In this study, we applied the DRT algorithms using combined HydroSHEDS and HYDRO1K global fine-scale hydrography inputs, and produced a new series of upscaled global river network data at multiple (1/16° to 2°) spatial resolutions in a consistent (WGS84) projection. The new upscaled river networks are internally consistent and congruent with the baseline fine-scale inputs. The DRT results preserve baseline fine-scale river networks independent of spatial scales, with consistency in river network, basin shape, basin area, river length, and basin internal drainage structure between upscaled and baseline fine-scale hydrography. These digital data are available online for public access (ftp://ftp.ntsg.umt.edu/pub/data/DRT/) and should facilitate improved regional to global scale hydrological simulations, including runoff routing and river discharge calculations.

  6. Effects of aerosols on tropospheric oxidants: A global model study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tie, Xuexi; Brasseur, Guy; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Kinnison, Douglas

    2001-10-01

    The global distributions of sulfate and soot particles in the atmosphere are calculated, and the effect of aerosol particles on tropospheric oxidants is studied using a global chemical/transport/aerosol model. The model is developed in the framework of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) global three-dimensional chemical/transport model (Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART)). In addition to the gas-phase photochemistry implemented in the MOZART model, the present study also accounts for the formation of sulfate and black carbon aerosols as well as for heterogeneous reactions on particles. The simulated global sulfate aerosol distributions and seasonal variation are compared with observations. The seasonal variation of sulfate aerosols is in agreement with measurements, except in the Arctic region. The calculated vertical profiles of sulfate aerosol agree well with the observations over North America. In the case of black carbon the calculated surface distribution is in fair agreement with observations. The effects of aerosol formation and heterogeneous reactions on the surface of sulfate aerosols are studied. The model calculations show the following: (1) The concentration of H2O2 is reduced when sulfate aerosols are formed due to the reaction of SO2 + H2O2 in cloud droplets. The gas-phase reaction SO2 + OH converts OH to HO2, but the reduction of OH and enhancement of HO2 are insignificant (<3%). (2) The heterogeneous reaction of HO2 on the surface of sulfate aerosols produces up to 10% reduction of hydroperoxyl radical (HO2) with an uptake coefficient of 0.2. However, this uptake coefficient could be overestimated, and the results should be regard as an upper limit estimation. (3) The N2O5 reaction on the surface of sulfate aerosols leads to an 80% reduction of NOx at middle to high latitudes during winter. Because ozone production efficiency is low in winter, ozone decreases by only 10% as a result of this reaction. However

  7. Global scale modeling of riverine sediment loads: tropical rivers in a global context

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, Sagy; Syvitski, James; Kettner, Albert

    2015-04-01

    A global scale riverine sediment flux model (termed WBMsed) is introduced. The model predicts spatially and temporally explicit water, suspended sediment and nutrients flux in relatively high resolutions (6 arc-min and daily). Modeled riverine suspended sediment flux through global catchments is used in conjunction with observational data for 35 tropical basins to highlight key basin scaling relationships. A 50 year, daily model simulation illuminates how precipitation, relief, lithology and drainage basin area affect sediment load, yield and concentration. Tropical river systems, wherein much of a drainage basin experiences tropical climate are strongly influenced by the annual and inter-annual variations of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its derivative monsoonal winds, have comparatively low inter-annual variation in sediment yield. Rivers draining rainforests and those subjected to tropical monsoons typically demonstrate high runoff, but with notable exceptions. High rainfall intensities from burst weather events are common in the tropics. The release of rain-forming aerosols also appears to uniquely increase regional rainfall, but its geomorphic manifestation is hard to detect. Compared to other more temperate river systems, climate-driven tropical rivers do not appear to transport a disproportionate amount of particulate load to the world's oceans, and their warmer, less viscous waters are less competent. Multiple-year hydrographs reveal that seasonality is a dominant feature of most tropical rivers, but the rivers of Papua New Guinea are somewhat unique being less seasonally modulated. Local sediment yield within the Amazon is highest near the Andes, but decreases towards the ocean as the river's discharge is diluted by water influxes from sediment-deprived rainforest tributaries

  8. Investigating global brown carbon from both measurements and models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, X.; Heald, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Brown carbon (BrC) is the component of organic aerosols (OA) which strongly absorbs solar radiation in the near-UV range of the spectrum. BrC properties and the resulting radiative effects are highly uncertain, limiting our ability to estimate near-term and regional climate forcing. Since both the source and optical properties of BrC are not well understood, it is challenging to develop a reliable model frameworks for BrC. On the other hand, field and laboratory measurements of BrC are rare and provide limited constraints. BrC absorption exhibits strong spectral dependence, which differs from black carbon (BC), the other important fine aerosol absorber. Based on this property, we develop an innovative approach to derive BrC absorption from multi-wavelength absorption measurements. By analyzing the Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth (AAOD) data from global AERONET network, we find that the optical properties of BrC are connected to the BC/OA ratio, as suggested by recent work. In view of this finding, we develop and discuss a series of different methods to simulate BrC absorption in the GEOS-Chem global model and estimate an associated range for global BrC burden and direct radiative forcing (DRF).

  9. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-08-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services.

  10. Spatially-explicit models of global tree density

    PubMed Central

    Glick, Henry B.; Bettigole, Charlie; Maynard, Daniel S.; Covey, Kristofer R.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Crowther, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Remote sensing and geographic analysis of woody vegetation provide means of evaluating the distribution of natural resources, patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem structure, and socio-economic drivers of resource utilization. While these methods bring geographic datasets with global coverage into our day-to-day analytic spheres, many of the studies that rely on these strategies do not capitalize on the extensive collection of existing field data. We present the methods and maps associated with the first spatially-explicit models of global tree density, which relied on over 420,000 forest inventory field plots from around the world. This research is the result of a collaborative effort engaging over 20 scientists and institutions, and capitalizes on an array of analytical strategies. Our spatial data products offer precise estimates of the number of trees at global and biome scales, but should not be used for local-level estimation. At larger scales, these datasets can contribute valuable insight into resource management, ecological modelling efforts, and the quantification of ecosystem services. PMID:27529613

  11. Global horizontal irradiance clear sky models : implementation and analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, Joshua S.; Hansen, Clifford W.; Reno, Matthew J.

    2012-03-01

    Clear sky models estimate the terrestrial solar radiation under a cloudless sky as a function of the solar elevation angle, site altitude, aerosol concentration, water vapor, and various atmospheric conditions. This report provides an overview of a number of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) clear sky models from very simple to complex. Validation of clear-sky models requires comparison of model results to measured irradiance during clear-sky periods. To facilitate validation, we present a new algorithm for automatically identifying clear-sky periods in a time series of GHI measurements. We evaluate the performance of selected clear-sky models using measured data from 30 different sites, totaling about 300 site-years of data. We analyze the variation of these errors across time and location. In terms of error averaged over all locations and times, we found that complex models that correctly account for all the atmospheric parameters are slightly more accurate than other models, but, primarily at low elevations, comparable accuracy can be obtained from some simpler models. However, simpler models often exhibit errors that vary with time of day and season, whereas the errors for complex models vary less over time.

  12. Global economic burden of Chagas disease: a computational simulation model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Bruce Y; Bacon, Kristina M; Bottazzi, Maria Elena; Hotez, Peter J

    2013-01-01

    Summary Background As Chagas disease continues to expand beyond tropical and subtropical zones, a growing need exists to better understand its resulting economic burden to help guide stakeholders such as policy makers, funders, and product developers. We developed a Markov simulation model to estimate the global and regional health and economic burden of Chagas disease from the societal perspective. Methods Our Markov model structure had a 1 year cycle length and consisted of five states: acute disease, indeterminate disease, cardiomyopathy with or without congestive heart failure, megaviscera, and death. Major model parameter inputs, including the annual probabilities of transitioning from one state to another, and present case estimates for Chagas disease came from various sources, including WHO and other epidemiological and disease-surveillance-based reports. We calculated annual and lifetime health-care costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for individuals, countries, and regions. We used a discount rate of 3% to adjust all costs and DALYs to present-day values. Findings On average, an infected individual incurs US$474 in health-care costs and 0·51 DALYs annually. Over his or her lifetime, an infected individual accrues an average net present value of $3456 and 3·57 DALYs. Globally, the annual burden is $627·46 million in health-care costs and 806 170 DALYs. The global net present value of currently infected individuals is $24·73 billion in health-care costs and 29 385 250 DALYs. Conversion of this burden into costs results in annual per-person costs of $4660 and lifetime per-person costs of $27 684. Global costs are $7·19 billion per year and $188·80 billion per lifetime. More than 10% of these costs emanate from the USA and Canada, where Chagas disease has not been traditionally endemic. A substantial proportion of the burden emerges from lost productivity from cardiovascular disease-induced early mortality. Interpretation The economic burden

  13. Global solutions to a chemotaxis model with consumption of chemoattractant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Liangchen; Mu, Chunlai; Hu, Xuegang

    2016-08-01

    This paper is devoted to the following chemotaxis system u_t=nabla\\cdot(D(u)nabla u)-nabla\\cdot(S(u)nabla v),quad &xin Ω,quad t>0, v_t=Δ v-uv,quad &xinΩ,quad t>0, under homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions in a smooth bounded domain {Ωsubset {R}^n} ({n≥2}), not necessarily being convex. There are some constants {c_D > 0}, {c_S > 0}, {min{R}} and {qin{R}} such that D(u) ≥ c_D(u+1)^{m-1} quad{and} quad S(u)≤ c_S(u+1)^{q-1}quad for all u≥0. If {q < m+n+2/2n}, it is shown that the model possesses a unique global classical solution which is uniformly bounded; if {q < m/2+n+2/2n}, the global existence of solution is established.

  14. The CHIC Model: A Global Model for Coupled Binary Data

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilderjans, Tom; Ceulemans, Eva; Van Mechelen, Iven

    2008-01-01

    Often problems result in the collection of coupled data, which consist of different N-way N-mode data blocks that have one or more modes in common. To reveal the structure underlying such data, an integrated modeling strategy, with a single set of parameters for the common mode(s), that is estimated based on the information in all data blocks, may…

  15. Importance of Sea Ice for Validating Global Climate Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geiger, Cathleen A.

    1997-01-01

    Reproduction of current day large-scale physical features and processes is a critical test of global climate model performance. Without this benchmark, prognoses of future climate conditions are at best speculation. A fundamental question relevant to this issue is, which processes and observations are both robust and sensitive enough to be used for model validation and furthermore are they also indicators of the problem at hand? In the case of global climate, one of the problems at hand is to distinguish between anthropogenic and naturally occuring climate responses. The polar regions provide an excellent testing ground to examine this problem because few humans make their livelihood there, such that anthropogenic influences in the polar regions usually spawn from global redistribution of a source originating elsewhere. Concomitantly, polar regions are one of the few places where responses to climate are non-anthropogenic. Thus, if an anthropogenic effect has reached the polar regions (e.g. the case of upper atmospheric ozone sensitivity to CFCs), it has most likely had an impact globally but is more difficult to sort out from local effects in areas where anthropogenic activity is high. Within this context, sea ice has served as both a monitoring platform and sensitivity parameter of polar climate response since the time of Fridtjof Nansen. Sea ice resides in the polar regions at the air-sea interface such that changes in either the global atmospheric or oceanic circulation set up complex non-linear responses in sea ice which are uniquely determined. Sea ice currently covers a maximum of about 7% of the earth's surface but was completely absent during the Jurassic Period and far more extensive during the various ice ages. It is also geophysically very thin (typically <10 m in Arctic, <3 m in Antarctic) compared to the troposphere (roughly 10 km) and deep ocean (roughly 3 to 4 km). Because of these unique conditions, polar researchers regard sea ice as one of the

  16. Globally nilpotent differential operators and the square Ising model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bostan, A.; Boukraa, S.; Hassani, S.; Maillard, J.-M.; Weil, J.-A.; Zenine, N.

    2009-03-01

    We recall various multiple integrals with one parameter, related to the isotropic square Ising model, and corresponding, respectively, to the n-particle contributions of the magnetic susceptibility, to the (lattice) form factors, to the two-point correlation functions and to their λ-extensions. The univariate analytic functions defined by these integrals are holonomic and even G-functions: they satisfy Fuchsian linear differential equations with polynomial coefficients and have some arithmetic properties. We recall the explicit forms, found in previous work, of these Fuchsian equations, as well as their Russian-doll and direct sum structures. These differential operators are selected Fuchsian linear differential operators, and their remarkable properties have a deep geometrical origin: they are all globally nilpotent, or, sometimes, even have zero p-curvature. We also display miscellaneous examples of globally nilpotent operators emerging from enumerative combinatorics problems for which no integral representation is yet known. Focusing on the factorized parts of all these operators, we find out that the global nilpotence of the factors (resp. p-curvature nullity) corresponds to a set of selected structures of algebraic geometry: elliptic curves, modular curves, curves of genus five, six,..., and even a remarkable weight-1 modular form emerging in the three-particle contribution χ(3) of the magnetic susceptibility of the square Ising model. Noticeably, this associated weight-1 modular form is also seen in the factors of the differential operator for another n-fold integral of the Ising class, Φ(3)H, for the staircase polygons counting, and in Apéry's study of ζ(3). G-functions naturally occur as solutions of globally nilpotent operators. In the case where we do not have G-functions, but Hamburger functions (one irregular singularity at 0 or ∞) that correspond to the confluence of singularities in the scaling limit, the p-curvature is also found to verify new

  17. CIDGA - Coupling of Interior Dynamic models with Global Atmosphere models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noack, Lena; Plesa, Ana-Catalina; Breuer, Doris

    2010-05-01

    Atmosphere temperatures and in particular the surface temperatures mostly depend on the solar heat flux and the atmospheric composition. The latter can be influenced by interior processes of the planet, i.e. volcanism that releases greenhouse gases such as H2O, CO2 and methane into the atmosphere and plate tectonics through which atmospheric CO2 is recycled via carbonates into the mantle. An increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere results in an increase of the surface temperature. Changes in the surface temperature on the other hand may influence the cooling behaviour of the planet and hence influence its volcanic activity [Phillips et al., 2001]. This feedback relation between mantle convection and atmosphere is not very well understood, since until now mostly either the interior dynamic of a planet or its atmosphere was investigated separately. 2D or 3D mantle convection models to the authors' knowledge haven't been coupled to the atmosphere so far. We have used the 3D spherical simulation code GAIA [Hüttig et al., 2008] including partial melt production and coupled it with the atmosphere module CIDGA using a gray greenhouse model for varying H2O concentrations. This way, not only the influence of mantle dynamics on the atmosphere can be investigated, but also the recoupling effect, that the surface temperature has on the mantle dynamics. So far, we consider one-plate planets without crustal and thus volatile recycling. Phillips et al. [2001] already investigated the coupling effect of the surface temperature on mantle dynamics by using simple parameterized convection models for Venus. In their model a positive feedback mechanism has been observed, i.e., an increase of the surface temperature leads to an increase of partial melt and hence an increase of atmosphere density and surface temperature. Applying our model to Venus, we show that an increase of surface temperature leads not only to an increase of partial melt in the mantle; it also

  18. The Global Modeling Initiative Assessment Model: Model Description, Integration and Testing of the Transport Shell

    SciTech Connect

    Rotman, D.A.; Tannahill, J.R.; Kinnison, D.E.; Connell, P.S.; Bergmann, D.; Proctor, D.; Rodriquez, J.M.; Lin, S.J.; Rood, R.B.; Prather, M.J.; Rasch, P.J.; Considine, D.B.; Ramaroson, R.; Kawa, S.R.

    2000-04-25

    We describe the three dimensional global stratospheric chemistry model developed under the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) to assess the possible environmental consequences from the emissions of a fleet of proposed high speed civil transport aircraft. This model was developed through a unique collaboration of the members of the GMI team. Team members provided computational modules representing various physical and chemical processes, and analysis of simulation results through extensive comparison to observation. The team members' modules were integrated within a computational framework that allowed transportability and simulations on massively parallel computers. A unique aspect of this model framework is the ability to interchange and intercompare different submodules to assess the sensitivity of numerical algorithms and model assumptions to simulation results. In this paper, we discuss the important attributes of the GMI effort, describe the GMI model computational framework and the numerical modules representing physical and chemical processes. As an application of the concept, we illustrate an analysis of the impact of advection algorithms on the dispersion of a NO{sub y}-like source in the stratosphere which mimics that of a fleet of commercial supersonic transports (High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT)) flying between 17 and 20 kilometers.

  19. A global scale mechanistic model of the photosynthetic capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, A. A.; Xu, C.; Rogers, A.; Fisher, R. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.; Massoud, E. C.; Vrugt, J. A.; Muss, J. D.; Fisher, J. B.; Reich, P. B.; Wilson, C. J.

    2015-08-01

    Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc, max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55 % of the variation in observed Vc, max25 and 65 % of the variation in observed Jmax25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that Vc, max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed Vc, max25 or Jmax25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

  20. A global scale mechanistic model of the photosynthetic capacity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, C.; Ali, A. A.; Fisher, R.; Wullschleger, S. D.; Rogers, A.; McDowell, N. G.; Wilson, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., Vc,max25) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., Jmax25) at a reference temperature (generally 25oC) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55% of the variation in observed Vc,max25 and 65% of the variation in observed Jmax25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that Vc,max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed Vc,max25 or Jmax25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

  1. Global model of whistler mode chorus from multiple satellite observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Nigel; Horne, Richard; Sicard-Piet, Angelica; Boscher, Daniel; Yearby, Keith; Li, Wen; Thorne, Richard

    2013-04-01

    Gyroresonant wave particle interactions with whistler mode chorus play a fundamental role in the dynamics of the Earth's radiation belts and inner magnetosphere, affecting both the acceleration and loss of radiation belt electrons. Knowledge of the variability of chorus wave power as a function of both spatial location and geomagnetic activity, required for the computation of pitch angle and energy diffusion rates, is thus a critical input for global radiation belt models. Here we present a global model of lower band (0.1fce < f < 0.5fce) and upper band (0.5fce < f < fce) chorus, where fce is the local electron gyrofrequency, using plasma wave data from DE1, CRRES, Cluster 1, Double Star TC1 and THEMIS, extending the coverage and improving the statistics of existing models. The chorus emissions extend from the plasmapause out to L* = 10 and are found to be largely substorm dependent with the largest intensities being seen during active conditions. Equatorial lower band chorus is strongest during active conditions with peak intensities of the order 2000 pT2 in the region 4 < L* < 9 between 2300 and 1200 MLT. Equatorial upper band chorus is both weaker and less extensive with peak intensities of the order a few hundred pT2 during active conditions between 2300 and 1100 MLT from L* = 3 to L* = 7. Moving away from the equator mid-latitude chorus is strongest in the lower band during active conditions with peak intensities of the order 2000 pT2 in the region 4 < L* < 9 but is restricted to the dayside between 0700 and 1400 MLT. The results suggest that including wave particle interactions beyond geostationary orbit could be very important for global radiation belt models.

  2. Crystalline structure of accretion disks: Features of a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montani, Giovanni; Benini, Riccardo

    2011-08-01

    In this paper, we develop the analysis of a two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical configuration for an axially symmetric and rotating plasma (embedded in a dipolelike magnetic field), modeling the structure of a thin accretion disk around a compact astrophysical object. Our study investigates the global profile of the disk plasma, in order to fix the conditions for the existence of a crystalline morphology and ring sequence, as outlined by the local analysis pursued in Coppi [Phys. PlasmasPHPAEN1070-664X10.1063/1.1883667 12, 7302 (2005)] and Coppi and Rousseau [Astrophys. J.AJLEEY0004-637X10.1086/500315 641, 458 (2006)]. In the linear regime, when the electromagnetic back-reaction of the plasma is small enough, we show the existence of an oscillating radial behavior for the flux surface function, which very closely resembles the one outlined in the local model, apart from a radial modulation of the amplitude. In the opposite limit, corresponding to a dominant back-reaction in the magnetic structure over the field of central object, we can recognize the existence of a ringlike decomposition of the disk, according to the same modulation of the magnetic flux surface, and a smoother radial decay of the disk density, with respect to the linear case. In this extreme nonlinear regime, the global model seems to predict a configuration very close to that of the local analysis, but here the thermostatic pressure, crucial for the equilibrium setting, is also radially modulated. Among the conditions requested for the validity of such a global model, the confinement of the radial coordinate within a given value sensitive to the disk temperature and to the mass of the central objet, stands; however, this condition corresponds to dealing with a thin disk configuration.

  3. Indirect Global Warming Potentials of Halons Using Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Youn, D.; Patten, K. O.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2007-05-01

    Emission of bromochlorofluorocarbons, or Halons, results in stratospheric ozone depletion. This leads to cooling of the climate system in the opposite direction to direct warming contribution of the Halons as greenhouse gases. This cooling is a key indirect effect of Halons on radiative forcing or climate. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is a relative index used to compare the climate impact of an emitted greenhouse gas, relative to an equal amount of carbon dioxide. Until now, indirect GWPs have been calculated based on the concept of Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC), which oversimplifies the complex processes in the atmosphere. As a step towards obtaining indirect GWPs through a more robust approach, 2-D and 3-D global chemical transport models (CTM) were used as the computational tool to derive more realistic ozone changes caused by pulse perturbation of Halons at the surface. Indirect GWPs of Halon-1211 and -1301 for a 100-year time horizon were explicitly calculated based on the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) 2-D global CTM and radiative transport model (RTM) and the 3-D CTM, MOZART-3.1. The 2-D and 3-D model simulations show acceptable temporal variations in the atmosphere as well as derived lifetimes and direct GWP values of the Halons. The 2-D model-based indirect GWPs for a 100-year horizon are -16,294 for Halon-1211 and -33,648 for Halon-1301. 3-D indirect GWP for Halon-1211 is -18,216. The indirect GWPs for Halon-1211 presented here are much smaller than previous published results using the previous simplified appraoch.

  4. Crystalline structure of accretion disks: features of a global model.

    PubMed

    Montani, Giovanni; Benini, Riccardo

    2011-08-01

    In this paper, we develop the analysis of a two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamical configuration for an axially symmetric and rotating plasma (embedded in a dipolelike magnetic field), modeling the structure of a thin accretion disk around a compact astrophysical object. Our study investigates the global profile of the disk plasma, in order to fix the conditions for the existence of a crystalline morphology and ring sequence, as outlined by the local analysis pursued in Coppi [Phys. Plasmas 12, 7302 (2005)] and Coppi and Rousseau [Astrophys. J. 641, 458 (2006)]. In the linear regime, when the electromagnetic back-reaction of the plasma is small enough, we show the existence of an oscillating radial behavior for the flux surface function, which very closely resembles the one outlined in the local model, apart from a radial modulation of the amplitude. In the opposite limit, corresponding to a dominant back-reaction in the magnetic structure over the field of central object, we can recognize the existence of a ringlike decomposition of the disk, according to the same modulation of the magnetic flux surface, and a smoother radial decay of the disk density, with respect to the linear case. In this extreme nonlinear regime, the global model seems to predict a configuration very close to that of the local analysis, but here the thermostatic pressure, crucial for the equilibrium setting, is also radially modulated. Among the conditions requested for the validity of such a global model, the confinement of the radial coordinate within a given value sensitive to the disk temperature and to the mass of the central objet, stands; however, this condition corresponds to dealing with a thin disk configuration.

  5. Turbulent Transport In Global Models of Magnetized Accretion Disks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sorathia, Kareem

    of local models is predicated on the assumption that these models accurately capture the dynamics of a small patch of a global astrophysical disk. This assumption is tested in detail through the study of local regions of global simulations. To reach resolutions comparable to those used in local simulations an orbital advection algorithm, a semi-Lagrangian reformulation of the fluid equations, is used which allows an order of magnitude increase in computational efficiency. It is found that the turbulence in global simulations agrees at intermediate- and small-scales with local models and that the presence of magnetic flux stimulates angular momentum transport in global simulations in a similar manner to that observed for local ones. However, the importance of this flux-stress connection is shown to cast doubt on the validity of local models due to their inability to accurately capture the temporal evolution of the magnetic flux seen in global simulations. The use of orbital advection allows the ability to probe previously-inaccessible resolutions in global simulations and is the basis for a rigorous resolution study presented here. Included are the results of a study utilizing a series of global simulations of varying resolutions and initial magnetic field topologies where a collection of proposed metrics of numerical convergence are explored. The resolution constraints necessary to establish numerical convergence of astrophysically-important measurements are presented along with evidence suggesting that the use of proper azimuthal resolution, while computationally-demanding, is vital to achieving convergence. The majority of the proposed metrics are found to be useful diagnostics of MRI-driven turbulence, however they suffer as metrics of convergence due to their dependence on the initial magnetic field topology. In contrast to this, the magnetic tilt angle, a measure of the planar anisotropy of the magnetic field, is found to be a powerful tool for diagnosing

  6. Global transport of Asian dust revealed by NASA/CALIPSO and a global aerosol transport model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eguchi, K.; Yumimoto, K.; Uno, I.; Takemura, T.

    2009-12-01

    Trans-Pacific transport of mineral dust and air pollutants originating from Asia to North America is well known. Eguchi et al. (2009, ACP) pointed out that the Taklimakan Desert supplies mineral dust for upper troposphere and can play an important role in intercontinental-scale dust transport. Asian dust is also detected from ice cores on Greenland and French Alps. The effects of Asian dust on cloud systems and the associated radiative forcing can extend over the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we report the detailed structure of Asian dust during the global transport using integrated analysis of observations by CALIOP on-boarded NASA/CALIPSO satellite and a glocal aerosol transport model. We used the CALIOP Level 1B data products (ver. 2.01), containing the total attenuated backscatter coefficients at 532/1064 nm and the volume depolarization ratio at 532 nm. Dust extinction coefficients are then derived from the Fernald’s inversion method by setting the lidar ratio to S1=50 sr. As for a global aerosol transport model, we used the Spectral Radiation Transport Model for the Aerosol Species (SPRINTARS; Takemura et al., 2005, JGR). We performed a sensitivity experiment that aims at an analysis specified for a single dust event originating from the Taklimakan. The simulation was performed over May 2007. A sever dust storm occurred on 8-9 May 2007 in Taklimakan Desert. Dust cloud emitted during this dust storm is uplifted to altitude of 8-10 km and starts the travel of full circuit around the globe. It has a meridional width of 100-200 km. About one tenth of the original uplifted dust mass (8.1 Gg) is encircling the globe taking about 2 weeks. Because of its high transport height, the dust cloud almost unaffected by wet removal so that the decay of its concentration level is small. Over the western North Pacific of 2nd circuit, the dust cloud pulls down to the lower troposphere by anticyclonic down draft, and finally it settles on North Pacific because of wet

  7. The NASA MSFC Earth Global Reference Atmospheric Model-2007 Version

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leslie, F.W.; Justus, C.G.

    2008-01-01

    Reference or standard atmospheric models have long been used for design and mission planning of various aerospace systems. The NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) was developed in response to the need for a design reference atmosphere that provides complete global geographical variability, and complete altitude coverage (surface to orbital altitudes) as well as complete seasonal and monthly variability of the thermodynamic variables and wind components. A unique feature of GRAM is that, addition to providing the geographical, height, and monthly variation of the mean atmospheric state, it includes the ability to simulate spatial and temporal perturbations in these atmospheric parameters (e.g. fluctuations due to turbulence and other atmospheric perturbation phenomena). A summary comparing GRAM features to characteristics and features of other reference or standard atmospheric models, can be found Guide to Reference and Standard Atmosphere Models. The original GRAM has undergone a series of improvements over the years with recent additions and changes. The software program is called Earth-GRAM2007 to distinguish it from similar programs for other bodies (e.g. Mars, Venus, Neptune, and Titan). However, in order to make this Technical Memorandum (TM) more readable, the software will be referred to simply as GRAM07 or GRAM unless additional clarity is needed. Section 1 provides an overview of the basic features of GRAM07 including the newly added features. Section 2 provides a more detailed description of GRAM07 and how the model output generated. Section 3 presents sample results. Appendices A and B describe the Global Upper Air Climatic Atlas (GUACA) data and the Global Gridded Air Statistics (GGUAS) database. Appendix C provides instructions for compiling and running GRAM07. Appendix D gives a description of the required NAMELIST format input. Appendix E gives sample output. Appendix F provides a list of available

  8. Stochastic Modeling and Global Warming Trend Extraction For Ocean Acoustic Travel Times.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1995-01-06

    consideration and that these models can not currently be relied upon by themselves to predict global warming . Experimental data is most certainly needed, not...only to measure global warming itself, but to help improve the ocean model themselves. (AN)

  9. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    Climate simulations with different degrees of idealization are essential for the development of our understanding of the climate system. Studies in this dissertation employ carefully designed global-model simulations for the goal of gaining theoretical and conceptual insights into some problems of climate dynamics. Firstly, global warming-induced changes in extreme precipitation are investigated using a global climate model with idealized geography. The precipitation changes over an idealized north-south mid-latitude mountain barrier at the western margin of an otherwise flat continent are studied. The intensity of the 40 most intense events on the western slopes increases by about ~4°C of surface warming. In contrast, the intensity of the top 40 events on the eastern mountain slopes increases at about ~6°C. This higher sensitivity is due to enhanced ascent during the eastern-slope events, which can be explained in terms of linear mountain-wave theory relating to global warming-induced changes in the upper-tropospheric static stability and the tropopause level. Dominated by different dynamical factors, changes in the intensity of extreme precipitation events over plains and oceans might differ from changes over mountains. So the response of extreme precipitation over mountains and flat areas are further compared using larger data sets of simulated extreme events over the two types of surfaces. It is found that the sensitivity of extreme precipitation to increases in global mean surface temperature is 3% per °C lower over mountains than over the oceans or the plains. The difference in sensitivity among these regions is not due to thermodynamic effects, but rather to differences between the gravity-wave dynamics governing vertical velocities over the mountains and the cyclone dynamics governing vertical motions over the oceans and plains. The strengthening of latent heating in the storms over oceans and plains leads to stronger ascent in the warming climate

  10. Evaluation of Black Carbon Estimations in Global Aerosol Models

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, D.; Schulz, M.; Kinne, Stefan; McNaughton, C. S.; Spackman, J. R.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Berntsen, T.; Bond, Tami C.; Boucher, Olivier; Chin, M.; Clarke, A. D.; De Luca, N.; Dentener, F.; Diehl, T.; Dubovik, O.; Easter, Richard C.; Fahey, D. W.; Feichter, J.; Fillmore, D.; Freitag, S.; Ghan, Steven J.; Ginoux, P.; Gong, S.; Horowitz, L.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Klimont, Z.; Kondo, Yutaka; Krol, M.; Liu, Xiaohong; Miller, R.; Montanaro, V.; Moteki, N.; Myhre, G.; Penner, J.; Perlwitz, Ja; Pitari, G.; Reddy, S.; Sahu, L.; Sakamoto, H.; Schuster, G.; Schwarz, J. P.; Seland, O.; Stier, P.; Takegawa, Nobuyuki; Takemura, T.; Textor, C.; van Aardenne, John; Zhao, Y.

    2009-11-27

    range represented by the full set of AeroCom models. Upper tropospheric concentrations of BC mass from the aircraft measurements are suggested to provide a unique new benchmark to test scavenging and vertical dispersion of BC in global models.

  11. Global middle Pliocene biome reconstruction: A data/model synthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Valdes, Paul J.; Francis, Jane E.; Sellwood, Bruce W.

    2002-12-01

    The middle Pliocene warm interval (ca. 3 Ma BP) has been extensively studied. However, our knowledge concerning the global distribution of middle Pliocene biomes remains far from complete. This paper presents the results from a "first attempt" at simulating the distribution of different mid-Pliocene biomes using an advanced numerical general circulation climate model (Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model Version 3) and the BIOME 4 vegetation model. The modeling indicates that during the middle Pliocene the geographical coverage of tundra type biomes may have been significantly reduced compared with the present day in the Northern Hemisphere. High-latitude forests expand in the place of tundra forms of vegetation. Total area covered by forest increases for the Pliocene case compared with the present day. Arid deserts become less prevalent in the Pliocene scenario and are replaced by tropical xerophytic shrublands and savanna-type vegetation. These results compare favorably with geological data in general and with the U.S. Geological Survey's PRISM2 middle Pliocene vegetation reconstruction, although data/model inconsistencies are apparent. Although some of these inconsistencies relate to the weaknesses of the climate and biome model employed, others identify deficiencies in the extant geological data set or the interpretation of this data. This modeled biome reconstruction will serve as a useful vehicle for aiding in future comparisons between geological data on middle Pliocene biomes and model predictions.

  12. Toward Submesocale Ocean Modelling and Observations for Global Ocean Forecast.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drillet, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Mercator Ocean is the French oceanographic operational center involved in the development an operation of global high resolution ocean forecasting systems; it is part of the European Copernicus Marine service initiated during MyOcean project. Mercator Ocean currently delivers daily 1/12° global ocean forecast based on the NEMO model which allows for a good representation of mesoscale structures in main areas of the global ocean. Data assimilation of altimetry provides a precise initialization of the mesoscale structures while in situ observations, mainly based on the ARGO network, and satellite Sea Surface Temperature constrain water mass properties from the surface to intermediate depths. One of the main improvements scheduled in the coming years is the transitioning towards submesoscale permitting horizontal resolution (1/36°). On the basis of numerical simulations in selected areas and standard diagnostics developed to validate operational systems, we will discuss : i) The impact of the resolution increase at the basin scale. ii) Adequacy of numerical schemes, vertical resolution and physical parameterization. iii) Adequacy of currently implemented data assimilation procedures in particular with respect to new high resolution data set such as SWOT.

  13. Adaptable Information Models in the Global Change Information System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duggan, B.; Buddenberg, A.; Aulenbach, S.; Wolfe, R.; Goldstein, J.

    2014-12-01

    The US Global Change Research Program has sponsored the creation of the Global Change Information System () to provide a web based source of accessible, usable, and timely information about climate and global change for use by scientists, decision makers, and the public. The GCIS played multiple roles during the assembly and release of the Third National Climate Assessment. It provided human and programmable interfaces, relational and semantic representations of information, and discrete identifiers for various types of resources, which could then be manipulated by a distributed team with a wide range of specialties. The GCIS also served as a scalable backend for the web based version of the report. In this talk, we discuss the infrastructure decisions made during the design and deployment of the GCIS, as well as ongoing work to adapt to new types of information. Both a constrained relational database and an open ended triple store are used to ensure data integrity while maintaining fluidity. Using natural primary keys allows identifiers to propagate through both models. Changing identifiers are accomodated through fine grained auditing and explicit mappings to external lexicons. A practical RESTful API is used whose endpoints are also URIs in an ontology. Both the relational schema and the ontology are maleable, and stability is ensured through test driven development and continuous integration testing using modern open source techniques. Content is also validated through continuous testing techniques. A high degres of scalability is achieved through caching.

  14. Global dynamics of delay recruitment models with maximized lifespan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    El-Morshedy, Hassan A.; Röst, Gergely; Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso

    2016-06-01

    We study the dynamics of the differential equation u'(t)=-γ u(t)+ b f(u(t-τ))- c f(u(t-σ)) with two delayed terms, representing a positive and a negative feedback. We prove delay-dependent and absolute global stability results for the trivial and for the positive equilibrium. Our theorems provide new mathematical results as well as novel insights for several biological systems, including three-stage populations, neural models with inhibitory and excitatory loops, and the blood platelet model of Bélair and Mackey. We show that, somewhat surprisingly, the introduction of a removal term with fixed delay in population models simplifies the dynamics of the equation.

  15. Area-based approach improves global sediment discharge modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-07-01

    By approaching the challenge of calculating global sediment discharge rates from a new angle, Pelletier developed a model that outperforms many existing simulations while minimizing the number of free parameters. Knowing how sediment is transported by the world's rivers is a key factor in understanding how landscapes change over time, with important consequences for agricultural viability, ecological health, and soil properties. Traditionally, the majority of discharge models calculate sediment redistribution at the watershed or drainage basin scale, using watershed average values of the physical properties known to affect sediment transport. The author's model, on the other hand, partitions the planet into sections that are 5 arc minutes wide—roughly 10 kilometers across at the equator and smaller at higher latitudes. This decision to use an area-based grid rather than drainage basin averages allows for an improved representation of small-scale processes that are often washed out at the watershed scale.

  16. eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Donchyts, Gennadii; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2015-04-01

    Development of an operational hyper-resolution hydrological global model is a central goal of the eWaterCycle project (www.ewatercycle.org). This operational model includes ensemble forecasts (14 days) to predict water related stress around the globe. Assimilation of near-real time satellite data is part of the intended product that will be launched at EGU 2015. The challenges come from several directions. First, there are challenges that are mainly computer science oriented but have direct practical hydrological implications. For example, we aim to make use as much as possible of existing standards and open-source software. For example, different parts of our system are coupled through the Basic Model Interface (BMI) developed in the framework of the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS). The PCR-GLOBWB model, built by Utrecht University, is the basic hydrological model that is the engine of the eWaterCycle project. Re-engineering of parts of the software was needed for it to run efficiently in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment, and to be able to interface using BMI, and run on multiple compute nodes in parallel. The final aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km, which is currently 10 x 10km. This high resolution is computationally not too demanding but very memory intensive. The memory bottleneck becomes especially apparent for data assimilation, for which we use OpenDA. OpenDa allows for different data assimilation techniques without the need to build these from scratch. We have developed a BMI adaptor for OpenDA, allowing OpenDA to use any BMI compatible model. To circumvent memory shortages which would result from standard applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, we have developed a variant that does not need to keep all ensemble members in working memory. At EGU, we will present this variant and how it fits well in HPC environments. An important step in the eWaterCycle project was the coupling between the hydrological and

  17. Advancement of Global-scale River Hydrodynamics Modelling and Its Potential Applications to Earth System Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamazaki, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global river routine models have been developed for representing freshwater discharge from land to ocean in Earth System Models. At the beginning, global river models had simulated river discharge along a prescribed river network map by using a linear-reservoir assumption. Recently, in parallel with advancement of remote sensing and computational powers, many advanced global river models have started to represent floodplain inundation assuming sub-grid floodplain topography. Some of them further pursue physically-appropriate representation of river and floodplain dynamics, and succeeded to utilize "hydrodynamic flow equations" to realistically simulate channel/floodplain and upstream/downstream interactions. State-of-the-art global river hydrodynamic models can well reproduce flood stage (e.g. inundated areas and water levels) in addition to river discharge. Flood stage simulation by global river models can be potentially coupled with land surface processes in Earth System Models. For example, evaporation from inundated water area is not negligible for land-atmosphere interactions in arid areas (such as the Niger River). Surface water level and ground water level are correlated each other in flat topography, and this interaction could dominate wetting and drying of many small lakes in flatland and could also affect biogeochemical processes in these lakes. These land/surface water interactions had not been implemented in Earth System Models but they have potential impact on the global climate and carbon cycle. In the AGU presentation, recent advancements of global river hydrodynamic modelling, including super-high resolution river topography datasets, will be introduces. The potential applications of river and surface water modules within Earth System Models will be also discussed.

  18. Modelling of the Global Geopotential Energy & Stress Field

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffer, C.; Nielsen, S. B.

    2012-04-01

    Lateral density and topography variations yield in and important contribution to the lithospheric stress field. The leading quantity is the Geopotential Energy, the integrated lithostatic pressure in a rock column. The horizontal gradient of this quantity is related to horizontal stresses through the Equations of equilibrium of stresses. The Geopotential Energy furthermore can be linearly related to the Geoid under assumption of local isostasy. Satellite Geoid measurements contain, however, also non-isostatic deeper mantle responses of long wavelength. Unfortunately, high-pass filtering of the Geoid does not suppress only the deeper sources. The age-dependent signal of the oceanic lithosphere, for instance, is of long wave length and a prominent representative of in-plane stress, derived from the horizontal gradient of isostatic Geoid anomalies and responsible for the ridge push effect. Therefore a global lithospheric density model is required in order to isolate the shallow Geoid signal and calculate the stress pattern from isostatically compensated lithospheric sources. We use a linearized inverse method to fit a lithospheric reference model to observations such as topography and surface heat flow in the presence of local isostasy and a steady state geotherm. Subsequently we use a FEM code to solve the Equations of equilibrium of stresses for a three dimensional elastic shell. The modelled results are shown and compared with the global stress field and other publications.

  19. Global ridge orientation modeling for partial fingerprint identification.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yi Alice; Hu, Jiankun

    2011-01-01

    Identifying incomplete or partial fingerprints from a large fingerprint database remains a difficult challenge today. Existing studies on partial fingerprints focus on one-to-one matching using local ridge details. In this paper, we investigate the problem of retrieving candidate lists for matching partial fingerprints by exploiting global topological features. Specifically, we propose an analytical approach for reconstructing the global topology representation from a partial fingerprint. First, we present an inverse orientation model for describing the reconstruction problem. Then, we provide a general expression for all valid solutions to the inverse model. This allows us to preserve data fidelity in the existing segments while exploring missing structures in the unknown parts. We have further developed algorithms for estimating the missing orientation structures based on some a priori knowledge of ridge topology features. Our statistical experiments show that our proposed model-based approach can effectively reduce the number of candidates for pair-wised fingerprint matching, and thus significantly improve the system retrieval performance for partial fingerprint identification.

  20. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  1. Science of Global Climate Modeling: Confirmation from Discoveries on Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartmann, William K.

    2012-10-01

    As early as 1993, analysis of obliquity changes on Mars revealed irregular cycles of high excursion, over 45°1. Further obliquity analyses indicated that insolation and climatic conditions vary with time, with the four most recent episodes of obliquity >45° occurring about 5.5, 8, 9, and 15 My.2 Various researchers applied global climate models, using Martian parameters and obliquity changes. The models (independent of Martian geomorphological observations) indicate exceptional climate conditions during the high-obliquity episodes at >45°3,4, with localized massive ice deposition effects east of Hellas and on the west slopes of Tharsis.5 At last year’s DPS my co-authors and I detailed evidence of unusual active glaciation in Greg crater, near the center of the predicted area of ice accumulation during high obliquity.6 We found that the timescale of glacial surface layer activity matches the general 5-15 My timescale of the last episodes of high obliquity and ice deposition. Radar results confirm ice deposits in debris aprons concentrated in the same area.7 Less direct evidence has also been found for glacial ice deposits in the west Tharsis region.8 Here I emphasize that if the models can be adjusted to Mars and then successfully indicate unusual, specific features that we see there, it is an argument for the robustness of climate modeling in general. In recent years we have see various public figures casting doubt on the validity of terrestrial global modeling. The successful match of Martian climate modeling with direct Martian geological and chronometric observations provides an interesting and teachable refutation of the attacks on climate science. References: 1. Science 259:1294-1297; 2. LPSC XXXV, Abs. 1600; 3. Nature 412:411-413; 4. Science 295:110-113; 5. Science 311:368-371; 6. EPSC-DPS Abs. 1394; 7. Science 322:1235-1238; 8. Nature 434:346-351.

  2. Updated Results from the Titan Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. M.; Waite, J. H.; Mandt, K.; Magee, B.

    2012-12-01

    We present updated results from the Titan Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (T-GITM) (Bell et al. [2010a]). We use both a 1-D and 3-D version of T-GITM to address simultaneously the escape of methane and molecular hydrogen from Titan's upper atmosphere. We will compare simulated fields with Cassini Ion Neutral Mass Spectrometer (INMS) neutral and ion density data for calibration and validation. We will put our current estimates for atmospheric escape within the context of previous work (e.g. Cui et al. [2008, 2011], Strobel et al. [2010], Tucker et al. [2009], and Yelle et al. [2008]).

  3. Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modelling: First Science Conference

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sahagian, Dork

    1995-01-01

    Topics considered include: Biomass of termites and their emissions of methane and carbon dioxide - A global database; Carbon isotope discrimination during photosynthesis and the isotope ratio of respired CO2 in boreal forest ecosystems; Estimation of methane emission from rice paddies in mainland China; Climate and nitrogen controls on the geography and timescales of terrestrial biogeochemical cycling; Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions - A case study at 6000 years B.P.; Interannual variation of carbon exchange fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems; and Variations in modeled atmospheric transport of carbon dioxide and the consequences for CO2 inversions.

  4. eWaterCycle: A high resolution global hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Giesen, Nick; Bierkens, Marc; Drost, Niels; Hut, Rolf; Sutanudjaja, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    In 2013, the eWaterCycle project was started, which has the ambitious goal to run a high resolution global hydrological model. Starting point was the PCR-GLOBWB built by Utrecht University. The software behind this model will partially be re-engineered in order to enable to run it in a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. The aim is to have a spatial resolution of 1km x 1km. The idea is also to run the model in real-time and forecasting mode, using data assimilation. An on-demand hydraulic model will be available for detailed flow and flood forecasting in support of navigation and disaster management. The project faces a set of scientific challenges. First, to enable the model to run in a HPC environment, model runs were analyzed to examine on which parts of the program most CPU time was spent. These parts were re-coded in Open MPI to allow for parallel processing. Different parallelization strategies are thinkable. In our case, it was decided to use watershed logic as a first step to distribute the analysis. There is rather limited recent experience with HPC in hydrology and there is much to be learned and adjusted, both on the hydrological modeling side and the computer science side. For example, an interesting early observation was that hydrological models are, due to their localized parameterization, much more memory intensive than models of sister-disciplines such as meteorology and oceanography. Because it would be deadly to have to swap information between CPU and hard drive, memory management becomes crucial. A standard Ensemble Kalman Filter (enKF) would, for example, have excessive memory demands. To circumvent these problems, an alternative to the enKF was developed that produces equivalent results. This presentation shows the most recent results from the model, including a 5km x 5km simulation and a proof of concept for the new data assimilation approach. Finally, some early ideas about financial sustainability of an operational global

  5. Global Models for the National Research University: Adoption and Adaptation in Indonesia and Malaysia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beerkens, Eric

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the way in which global university models are adopted in research universities in Indonesia and Malaysia. It first provides the global context in which these models have evolved and the processes through which they spread. How these global models interact with local policies and institutions is the topic of the empirical part…

  6. HPC Aspects of Variable-Resolution Global Climate Modeling using a Multi-scale Convection Parameterization

    EPA Science Inventory

    High performance computing (HPC) requirements for the new generation variable grid resolution (VGR) global climate models differ from that of traditional global models. A VGR global model with 15 km grids over the CONUS stretching to 60 km grids elsewhere will have about ~2.5 tim...

  7. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  8. Flexible Finite-Element Modeling of Global Geomagnetic Depth Sounding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribaudo, Joseph Thomas

    Time-varying primary magnetic fields generated outside Earth by the magnetospheric ring current induce electrical currents in Earth's interior, which give rise to secondary magnetic fields with a complementary geometry. Geomagnetic depth sounding involves the analysis of magnetic field data to compute frequency-dependent response functions which yield information about the electrical conductivity of Earth's interior. I explore methods and results of forward-modeling global electromagnetic induction under a variety of assumptions about Earth conductivity and the spatial structure of the primary field. I begin by developing computational tools to perform time- and frequency-domain simulations of global induction in models with arbitrary conductivity and primary field structure using FlexPDE, a general-purpose software package that employs the finite-element method to solve partial differential equations. The method is shown to produce solutions with better than 1% accuracy when the simulated fields and response functions are compared to analytic solutions for a variety of problems in electromagnetic induction, and to qualitatively reproduce fields and response functions measured by satellites and observatories. The technique is employed in combination with analytic methods to explore the effect on the response of Earth models to primary fields with asymmetric structure. Standard methods of producing response functions from scalar and vector magnetic data are compared, and scalar methods are found to generate responses with significantly greater spatial bias for models with non-zonal fields. I develop the mathematical formulation for including Earth-rotation in the forward models, and use it to calculate frequency-dependent estimates of the amount of non-zonal structure required to produce previously reported local-time bias in empirical satellite response functions. Because it is difficult to validate solutions to induction problems that lack analytic solutions, we

  9. Evaluation of quantitative structure-activity relationship modeling strategies: local and global models.

    PubMed

    Helgee, Ernst Ahlberg; Carlsson, Lars; Boyer, Scott; Norinder, Ulf

    2010-04-26

    A thorough comparison between different QSAR modeling strategies is presented. The comparison is conducted for local versus global modeling strategies, risk assessment, and computational cost. The strategies are implemented using random forests, support vector machines, and partial least squares. Results are presented for simulated data, as well as for real data, generally indicating that a global modeling strategy is preferred over a local strategy. Furthermore, the results also show that there is an pronounced risk and a comparatively high computational cost when using the local modeling strategies.

  10. Soil Reflectance Modeling With A Global Spectral Library: Refinement of The Price Soil Reflectance Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, C.; Fang, H.

    2012-12-01

    Modeling soil reflectance is important to describe the soil-vegetation radiation field and to retrieve canopy characteristics from remote sensing data. The Price soil reflectance model has been widely used in canopy reflectance modeling thanks to its simplicity and effectiveness. In order to improve the model generality and applicability, this study refines the Price soil reflectance model using a global spectral library and further proposes a novel soil reflectance model. The global soil spectral library was combined from six datasets, containing 6,971 soil samples around the world, with a 10nm interval from 450 to 2350 nm. A recalibrated Price model (CPM) was developed using the same algorithm used by standard Price model (SPM) to obtain globally representative fitting functions. Moreover, a new matrix decomposition method (MDM) was developed to decrease the reflectance simulation errors by considering the spectra curve shapes. Three tune parameters are sufficient to model global soil spectra using MDM, which achieves the highest accuracy with an absolute error less than 0.02 and relative error less than 5%. CPM and SPM have larger simulation errors, for which the RMSE/RRMSE are 0.029/7.5% and 0.068/16.8%, respectively. For both SPM and CPM, relatively large error variations are shown over wavelengths, because only three selected bands are used in the models. MDM exhibits a relatively stable performance in the whole spectral domain. Moreover, MDM reconstructs very well the general shapes of the five types of soil reflectance curves, and thus leads to a lower misclassification rate. Overall, both CPM and MDM outperform SPM and have a potential for global soil reflectance modeling. Density scatter plots between the measured reflectances in the global soil spectral library and the simulated reflectances using SPM (a), CPM (b) and MDM (c). Comparison of measured and simulated reflectances for five typical curves.

  11. Origin of Plumes in Paleogeographically Constrained Global Convection Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan, R.; Flament, N. E.; Gurnis, M.; Bower, D. J.; Müller, D.

    2015-12-01

    Large igneous provinces (LIPs) erupting since 200 Ma may have originated from plumes that emerged from the edges of the large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) in the deep lower mantle. Although qualitative assessments that are broadly in agreement with this hypothesis have been derived from numerical convection models, a quantitative assessment has been lacking. We present global convection models constrained by plume motions and subduction history over the last 230 Myr, where plumes emerge preferentially from the edges of thermochemical structures that resemble present-day LLSVPs beneath Africa and the Pacific Ocean. We also present a novel plume detection scheme and derive Monte Carlo-based statistical correlations of model plume eruption sites and reconstructed LIP eruption sites. We show that models with a chemically anomalous lower mantle are highly correlated to reconstructed LIP eruption sites, whereas the confidence level obtained for a model with purely thermal plumes falls just short of 95%. A network of embayments separated by steep ridges forms in the deep lower mantle in models with a chemically anomalous lower mantle. Plumes become anchored to the peaks of the chemical ridges and the network of ridges acts as a floating anchor, adjusting to subduction-induced flow through time. The network of ridges imposes a characteristic separation between conduits that can extend into the interior of the thermochemical structures. This may explain the observed clustering of reconstructed LIP eruption sites that mostly but not exclusively occur around the present-day LLSVPs.

  12. Aerosol activation: parameterised versus explicit calculation for global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, H.; Pringle, K.; Metzger, S.; Lelieveld, J.

    2009-04-01

    A key process in studies of the aerosol indirect effects on clouds is the activation of particles into droplets at 100% relative humidity. To model this process in cloud, meteorological and climate models is a difficult undertaking because of the wide range of scales involved. The chemical composition of the atmospheric aerosol, originating from both air pollution and natural sources, substantially impacts the aerosol water uptake and growth due to its hygroscopicity. In this study a comparison of aerosol activation, using state-of-the-art aerosol activation parameterisations, and explicit activation due to hygroscopic growth is performed.For that purpose we apply the GMXe aerosol model - treating both dynamic and thermodynamic aerosol properties - within the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric chemistry, an atmospheric chemistry general circulation) model. This new aerosol model can explicitely calculate the water uptake of aerosols due to hygroscopicity, allowing the growth of aerosol particles into the regimes of cloud droplets in case of sufficient water vapour availability. Global model simulations using both activation schemes will be presented and compared, elucidating the advantages of each approach.

  13. Global gravimetric geoid model based a new method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, W. B.; Han, J. C.

    2012-04-01

    The geoid, defined as the equipotential surface nearest to the mean sea level, plays a key role in physical geodesy and unification of height datum system. In this study, we introduce a new method, which is quite different from the conventional geoid modeling methods (e.g., Stokes method, Molodensky method), to determine the global gravimetric geoid (GGG). Based on the new method, using the dada base of the external Earth gravity field model EGM2008, digital topographic model DTM2006.0 and crust density distribution model CRUST2.0, we first determined the inner geopotential field until to the depth of D, and then established a GGG model , the accuracy of which is evaluated by comparing with the observations from USA, AUS, some parts of Canada, and some parts of China. The main idea of the new method is stated as follows. Given the geopotential field (e.g. EGM2008) outside the Earth, we may determine the inner geopotential field until to the depth of D by using Newtonian integral, once the density distribution model (e.g. CRUST2.0) of a shallow layer until to the depth D is given. Then, based on the definition of the geoid (i.e. an equipotential surface nearest to the mean sea level) one may determine the GGG. This study is supported by Natural Science Foundation China (grant No.40974015; No.41174011; No.41021061; No.41128003).

  14. The near-global mesospheric potassium layer: Observations and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dawkins, E. C. M.; Plane, J. M. C.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.

    2015-08-01

    The meteoric metal layers act as unique tracers of chemistry and dynamics in the upper atmosphere. Existing lidar studies from a few locations show that K exhibits a semiannual seasonality (winter and summer maxima), quite unlike the annual seasonality (winter maximum and summer minimum) seen with Na and Fe. This work uses spaceborne observations made with the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System instrument on the Odin satellite to retrieve the near-global K layer for the first time. The satellite data (2004 to mid-2013) are used to validate the implementation of a recently proposed potassium chemistry scheme in a whole atmosphere chemistry climate model, which provides a chemical basis for this semiannual seasonal behavior. The satellite and model data show that this semiannual seasonality is near global in extent, with the strongest variation at middle and high latitudes. The column abundance, centroid layer height, and root-mean-square width of the K layer are consistent with the limited available lidar record. The K data set is then used to investigate the impact of polar mesospheric clouds on the metal layers at high latitudes during summer. Finally, the occurrence frequency of sporadic K layers and their possible link to sporadic E layers are examined.

  15. The near‐global mesospheric potassium layer: Observations and modeling

    PubMed Central

    Dawkins, E. C. M.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Feng, W.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract The meteoric metal layers act as unique tracers of chemistry and dynamics in the upper atmosphere. Existing lidar studies from a few locations show that K exhibits a semiannual seasonality (winter and summer maxima), quite unlike the annual seasonality (winter maximum and summer minimum) seen with Na and Fe. This work uses spaceborne observations made with the Optical Spectrograph and InfraRed Imager System instrument on the Odin satellite to retrieve the near‐global K layer for the first time. The satellite data (2004 to mid‐2013) are used to validate the implementation of a recently proposed potassium chemistry scheme in a whole atmosphere chemistry climate model, which provides a chemical basis for this semiannual seasonal behavior. The satellite and model data show that this semiannual seasonality is near global in extent, with the strongest variation at middle and high latitudes. The column abundance, centroid layer height, and root‐mean‐square width of the K layer are consistent with the limited available lidar record. The K data set is then used to investigate the impact of polar mesospheric clouds on the metal layers at high latitudes during summer. Finally, the occurrence frequency of sporadic K layers and their possible link to sporadic E layers are examined. PMID:27478716

  16. Observational and modeling constraints on global anthropogenic enrichment of mercury.

    PubMed

    Amos, Helen M; Sonke, Jeroen E; Obrist, Daniel; Robins, Nicholas; Hagan, Nicole; Horowitz, Hannah M; Mason, Robert P; Witt, Melanie; Hedgecock, Ian M; Corbitt, Elizabeth S; Sunderland, Elsie M

    2015-04-07

    Centuries of anthropogenic releases have resulted in a global legacy of mercury (Hg) contamination. Here we use a global model to quantify the impact of uncertainty in Hg atmospheric emissions and cycling on anthropogenic enrichment and discuss implications for future Hg levels. The plausibility of sensitivity simulations is evaluated against multiple independent lines of observation, including natural archives and direct measurements of present-day environmental Hg concentrations. It has been previously reported that pre-industrial enrichment recorded in sediment and peat disagree by more than a factor of 10. We find this difference is largely erroneous and caused by comparing peat and sediment against different reference time periods. After correcting this inconsistency, median enrichment in Hg accumulation since pre-industrial 1760 to 1880 is a factor of 4.3 for peat and 3.0 for sediment. Pre-industrial accumulation in peat and sediment is a factor of ∼ 5 greater than the precolonial era (3000 BC to 1550 AD). Model scenarios that omit atmospheric emissions of Hg from early mining are inconsistent with observational constraints on the present-day atmospheric, oceanic, and soil Hg reservoirs, as well as the magnitude of enrichment in archives. Future reductions in anthropogenic emissions will initiate a decline in atmospheric concentrations within 1 year, but stabilization of subsurface and deep ocean Hg levels requires aggressive controls. These findings are robust to the ranges of uncertainty in past emissions and Hg cycling.

  17. Predictability of cloud fraction in global NWP models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Accurate prediction of cloudiness is crucial in weather forecasting. Clouds exert a strong feedback on atmospheric flow by modulating energy fluxes and heating rates. Errors in low cloudiness contribute significantly to 2-m temperature errors in the short and medium range. It is investigated how the predictability of cloud fraction depends on cloud type and cloud fraction in different global models using ECMWF's high-resolution and ensemble forecasts, as well as the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) dataset. Results indicate that the skill of a probabilistic forecast of cloudiness exceeds that of a deterministic forecast already at shorter lead times than typically found for other surface or upper-air parameters. Systematic errors in forecasted cloud fraction distributions in different cloud regimes are analyzed in the Atlantic-Euro-African domain using Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF) data. Model development at ECMWF has been able to reduce systematic and non-systematic errors in the forecast of cloudiness over the last decade. However, gains in skill have been smaller than for other parameters, possible causes of which are discussed. A significant potential for improvement of forecasts of low cloudiness (stratocumulus, stratus) is identified.

  18. An updated subgrid orographic parameterization for global atmospheric forecast models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Hyun-Joo; Hong, Song-You

    2015-12-01

    A subgrid orographic parameterization (SOP) is updated by including the effects of orographic anisotropy and flow-blocking drag (FBD). The impact of the updated SOP on short-range forecasts is investigated using a global atmospheric forecast model applied to a heavy snowfall event over Korea on 4 January 2010. When the SOP is updated, the orographic drag in the lower troposphere noticeably increases owing to the additional FBD over mountainous regions. The enhanced drag directly weakens the excessive wind speed in the low troposphere and indirectly improves the temperature and mass fields over East Asia. In addition, the snowfall overestimation over Korea is improved by the reduced heat fluxes from the surface. The forecast improvements are robust regardless of the horizontal resolution of the model between T126 and T510. The parameterization is statistically evaluated based on the skill of the medium-range forecasts for February 2014. For the medium-range forecasts, the skill improvements of the wind speed and temperature in the low troposphere are observed globally and for East Asia while both positive and negative effects appear indirectly in the middle-upper troposphere. The statistical skill for the precipitation is mostly improved due to the improvements in the synoptic fields. The improvements are also found for seasonal simulation throughout the troposphere and stratosphere during boreal winter.

  19. Tropical drying trends in global warming models and observations.

    PubMed

    Neelin, J D; Münnich, M; Su, H; Meyerson, J E; Holloway, C E

    2006-04-18

    Anthropogenic changes in tropical rainfall are evaluated in a multimodel ensemble of global warming simulations. Major discrepancies on the spatial distribution of these precipitation changes remain in the latest-generation models analyzed here. Despite this uncertainty, we find a number of measures, both global and local, on which reasonable agreement is obtained, notably for the regions of drying trend (negative precipitation anomalies). Models agree on the overall amplitude of the precipitation decreases that occur at the margins of the convective zones, with percent error bars of magnitude similar to those for the tropical warming. Similar agreement is found on a precipitation climate sensitivity defined here and on differential moisture increase inside and outside convection zones, a step in a hypothesized causal path leading to precipitation changes. A measure of local intermodel agreement on significant trends indicates consistent predictions for particular regions. Observed rainfall trends in several data sets show a significant summer drying trend in a main region of intermodel agreement: the Caribbean/Central-American region.

  20. Toward an internal gravity wave spectrum in global ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, Malte; Arbic, Brian K.; Richman, James G.; Shriver, Jay F.; Kunze, Eric L.; Scott, Robert B.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Zamudio, Luis

    2015-05-01

    High-resolution global ocean models forced by atmospheric fields and tides are beginning to display realistic internal gravity wave spectra, especially as model resolution increases. This paper examines internal waves in global simulations with 0.08° and 0.04° (~8 and 4 km) horizontal resolutions, respectively. Frequency spectra of internal wave horizontal kinetic energy in the North Pacific lie closer to observations in the 0.04° simulation than in the 0.08° simulation. The horizontal wave number and frequency (K-ω) kinetic energy spectra contain peaks in the semidiurnal tidal band and near-inertial band, along with a broadband frequency continuum aligned along the linear dispersion relations of low-vertical-mode internal waves. Spectral kinetic energy transfers describe the rate at which nonlinear mechanisms remove or supply kinetic energy in specific K-ω ranges. Energy is transferred out of low-mode inertial and semidiurnal internal waves into a broad continuum of higher-frequency and higher-wave number internal waves.

  1. Development of a new Global RAdiation Belt model: GRAB

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sicard-Piet, Angelica; Lazaro, Didier; Maget, Vincent; Rolland, Guy; Ecoffet, Robert; Bourdarie, Sébastien; Boscher, Daniel; Standarovski, Denis

    2016-07-01

    The well known AP8 and AE8 NASA models are commonly used in the industry to specify the radiation belt environment. Unfortunately, there are some limitations in the use of these models, first due to the covered energy range, but also because in some regions of space, there are discrepancies between the predicted average values and the measurements. Therefore, our aim is to develop a radiation belt model, covering a large region of space and energy, from LEO altitudes to GEO and above, and from plasma to relativistic particles. The aim for the first version is to correct the AP8 and AE8 models where they are deficient or not defined. At geostationary, we developed ten years ago for electrons the IGE-2006 model which was proven to be more accurate than AE8, and used commonly in the industry, covering a broad energy range, from 1keV to 5MeV. From then, a proton model for geostationary orbit was also developed for material applications, followed by the OZONE model covering a narrower energy range but the whole outer electron belt, a SLOT model to asses average electron values for 2model, which provides high energy proton flux values at low altitudes. As most of these models were developed using more than a solar cycle of measurements, these measurements being checked, cross calibrated and filtered, we have no doubt that the obtained averages are more accurate than AP8 and AE8 for these particular locations. These local models were validated along different orbit with independent data sets or effect measurements. We will use a cache file system to switch between models, in order to obtain at each location in space and energy point the most reliable value. Of course, the way the model is developed is well suited to add new local developments or to include international partnership. This model will be called the GRAB model, as Global Radiation Belt model. We will present first beta version during this conference.

  2. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Döll, Petra; Douville, Hervé; Güntner, Andreas; Müller Schmied, Hannes; Wada, Yoshihide

    2016-03-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  3. Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doll, Petra; Douville, Herve; Guntner, Andreas; Schmied, Hannes Muller; Wada, Yoshihide

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

  4. Modeling global macroclimatic constraints on ectotherm energy budgets

    SciTech Connect

    Grant, B.W.; Porter, W.P.

    1992-12-31

    The authors describe a mechanistic individual-based model of how global macroclimatic constraints affect the energy budgets of ectothermic animals. The model uses macroclimatic and biophysical characters of the habitat and organism and tenets of heat transfer theory to calculate hourly temperature availabilities over a year. Data on the temperature dependence of activity rate, metabolism, food consumption and food processing capacity are used to estimate the net rate of resource assimilation which is then integrated over time. They present a new test of this model in which they show that the predicted energy budget sizes for 11 populations of the lizard Sceloporus undulates are in close agreement with observed results from previous field studies. This demonstrates that model tests rae feasible and the results are reasonable. Further, since the model represents an upper bound to the size of the energy budget, observed residual deviations form explicit predictions about the effects of environmental constraints on the bioenergetics of the study lizards within each site that may be tested by future field and laboratory studies. Three major new improvements to the modeling are discussed. They present a means to estimate microclimate thermal heterogeneity more realistically and include its effects on field rates of individual activity and food consumption. Second, they describe an improved model of digestive function involving batch processing of consumed food. Third, they show how optimality methods (specifically the methods of stochastic dynamic programming) may be included to model the fitness consequences of energy allocation decisions subject to food consumption and processing constraints which are predicted from the microclimate and physiological modeling.

  5. ENLIL Global Heliospheric Modeling as a Context For Multipoint Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Odstrcil, Dusan; Luhmann, Janet; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Schwadron, Nathan; Gorby, Matt; Thompson, Barbara; Jian, Lan; Möstl, Christian; Rouillard, Alexis; Davies, Jackie; Temmer, Manuela; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, Aleksandre; MacNeice, Peter; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2016-04-01

    We present heliospheric simulation case studies using recent enhancements to WSA--ENLIL+Cone (version 2.8) at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The global 3D MHD ENLIL model provides a time-dependent description of the background solar wind plasma and magnetic field using a sequence of WSA coronal model maps as input at the inner boundary of 21.5 Rs. A homogeneous, over-pressured hydrodynamic plasma cloud is launched through the inner boundary of the heliospheric computational domain and into the background solar wind. Multipoint observations help constrain simulations and this modeling system provides global context and arrival times of the solar wind streams and CMEs at Earth, planets, and spacecraft. Additionally, one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. ENLIL simulations are also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010) and Energetic Particle Radiation Environment Module (EPREM) (Schwadron et al., 2010). SEPMOD injects protons onto a sequence observer field lines at intensities dependent on the connected shock source strength which are then integrated at the observer to approximate the proton flux. EPREM couples with MHD models such as ENLIL and computes energetic particle distributions based on the focused transport equation along a Lagrangian grid of nodes that propagate out with the solar wind. Studies have shown that accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled CME arrival times and SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. It is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and

  6. Modeling of global variations and ring shadowing in Saturn's ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, L. E.; Mendillo, M.; Müller-Wodarg, I. C. F.; Murr, D. L.

    2004-12-01

    A time-dependent one-dimensional model of Saturn's ionosphere has been developed as an intermediate step towards a fully coupled Saturn Thermosphere-Ionosphere Model (STIM). A global circulation model (GCM) of the thermosphere provides the latitude and local time dependent neutral atmosphere, from which a globally varying ionosphere is calculated. Four ion species are used (H +, H +2, H +3, and He +) with current cross-sections and reaction rates, and the SOLAR2000 model for the Sun's irradiance. Occultation data from the Voyager photopolarimeter system (PPS) are adapted to model the radial profile of the ultraviolet (UV) optical depth of the rings. Diurnal electron density peak values and heights are generated for all latitudes and two seasons under solar minimum and solar maximum conditions, both with and without shadowing from the rings. Saturn's lower ionosphere is shown to be in photochemical equilibrium, whereas diffusive processes are important in the topside. In agreement with previous 1-D models, the ionosphere is dominated by H + and H +3, with a peak electron density of ˜10 electrons cm -3. At low- and mid-latitudes, H + is the dominant ion, and the electron density exhibits a diurnal maximum during the mid-afternoon. At higher latitudes and shadowed latitudes (smaller ionizing fluxes), the diurnal maximum retreats towards noon, and the ratio of [H +]/[H +3] decreases, with H +3 becoming the dominant ion at altitudes near the peak (˜1200-1600 km) for noon-time hours. Shadowing from the rings leads to attenuation of solar flux, the magnitude and latitudinal structure of which is seasonal. During solstice, the season for the Cassini spacecraft's encounter with Saturn, attenuation has a maximum of two orders of magnitude, causing a reduction in modeled peak electron densities and total electron column contents by as much as a factor of three. Calculations are performed that explore the parameter space for charge-exchange reactions of H + with

  7. Challenges and Opportunities in Modeling of the Global Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janjic, Zavisa; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Vasic, Ratko

    2016-04-01

    Modeling paradigms on global scales may need to be reconsidered in order to better utilize the power of massively parallel processing. For high computational efficiency with distributed memory, each core should work on a small subdomain of the full integration domain, and exchange only few rows of halo data with the neighbouring cores. Note that the described scenario strongly favors horizontally local discretizations. This is relatively easy to achieve in regional models. However, the spherical geometry complicates the problem. The latitude-longitude grid with local in space and explicit in time differencing has been an early choice and remained in use ever since. The problem with this method is that the grid size in the longitudinal direction tends to zero as the poles are approached. So, in addition to having unnecessarily high resolution near the poles, polar filtering has to be applied in order to use a time step of a reasonable size. However, the polar filtering requires transpositions involving extra communications as well as more computations. The spectral transform method and the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian schemes opened the way for application of spectral representation. With some variations, such techniques are currently dominating in global models. Unfortunately, the horizontal non-locality is inherent to the spectral representation and implicit time differencing, which inhibits scaling on a large number of cores. In this respect the lat-lon grid with polar filtering is a step in the right direction, particularly at high resolutions where the Legendre transforms become increasingly expensive. Other grids with reduced variability of grid distances, such as various versions of the cubed sphere and the hexagonal/pentagonal ("soccer ball") grids, were proposed almost fifty years ago. However, on these grids, large-scale (wavenumber 4 and 5) fictitious solutions ("grid imprinting") with significant amplitudes can develop. Due to their large scales, that

  8. Addressing sources of uncertainty in a global terrestrial carbon model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Exbrayat, J.; Pitman, A. J.; Zhang, Q.; Abramowitz, G.; Wang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Several sources of uncertainty exist in the parameterization of the land carbon cycle in current Earth System Models (ESMs). For example, recently implemented interactions between the carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles lead to diverse changes in land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by different models. Further, although soil organic matter decomposition is commonly parameterized as a first-order decay process, the formulation of the microbial response to changes in soil moisture and soil temperature varies tremendously between models. Here, we examine the sensitivity of historical land-atmosphere C fluxes simulated by an ESM to these two major sources of uncertainty. We implement three soil moisture (SMRF) and three soil temperature (STRF) respiration functions in the CABLE-CASA-CNP land biogeochemical component of the coarse resolution CSIRO Mk3L climate model. Simulations are undertaken using three degrees of biogeochemical nutrient limitation: C-only, C and N, and C and N and P. We first bring all 27 possible combinations of a SMRF with a STRF and a biogeochemical mode to a steady-state in their biogeochemical pools. Then, transient historical (1850-2005) simulations are driven by prescribed atmospheric CO2 concentrations used in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Similarly to some previously published results, representing N and P limitation on primary production reduces the global land carbon sink while some regions become net C sources over the historical period (1850-2005). However, the uncertainty due to the SMRFs and STRFs does not decrease relative to the inter-annual variability in net uptake when N and P limitations are added. Differences in the SMRFs and STRFs and their effect on the soil C balance can also change the sign of some regional sinks. We show that this response is mostly driven by the pool size achieved at the end of the spin-up procedure. Further, there exists a six-fold range in the level

  9. A GLOBAL MAGNETIC TOPOLOGY MODEL FOR MAGNETIC CLOUDS. I

    SciTech Connect

    Hidalgo, M. A.; Nieves-Chinchilla, T. E-mail: teresa.nieves-chinchil-1@nasa.gov

    2012-04-01

    We present an analytical approach to the global magnetic field topology of magnetic clouds (MCs) that considers them like close magnetic structures with torus geometry and with a non-uniform (variable maximum radius) cross section along them. Following our previous approach to the problem of MCs (Hidalgo 2003, 2011), we establish an intrinsic coordinate system for that topology, and then we analytically solve the Maxwell equations in terms of it. The purpose of the present work is to present this model, which will lead us to understand in a more realistic way the physical mechanisms inside MCs. The model has a non-force-free character and also takes into account the time evolution of the cross sections of the MCs in their movement through the interplanetary medium. In this first paper, we obtain the expressions for the components of the magnetic field and the plasma current density imposing a large mean radius of the torus, and imposing a circular cross section with a variable maximum radius. Eventually, we fit the model to data related to four well-known MCs measurements at 1 AU, (three of them with circular cross sections and without expansion, as it is deduced from the experimental data). We compare the results of this toroidal model with those obtained with our previous cylindrical circular cross section model, also with a non-force-free character.

  10. Global magnetic field modelling with archeomagnetic and historical data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Senftleben, Robin; Korte, Monika; Finlay, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Global geomagnetic field models on different time scales are useful tools to study the field evolution and gain insights into underlying processes in the Earth's outer core. However, historical full vector field data are only available from 1840 on, and millennial scale field models based on archeo- and paleomagnetic data have, in general, rather low temporal and spatial resolution. This study complements the high resolution data of historical sources with archeomagnetic data in order to expand the time range back to 1000 AD and add total magnetic field informations in the times from 1590 AD to 1840 AD. This makes it possible to constrain the axial dipole moment with actual observations unlike the gufm1 model, which does so through linear extrapolation (Jackson et al. 2000). The resulting model is compared against new paleomagnetic data from the island Fogo of Cap Verde. The age of the sampled volcanic flows spans between 1600 AD and 1900 AD. The final objective of this study is to use this model to uncover details of the decaying behaviour of the dipole moment and the development of the South Atlantic Anomaly.

  11. Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, Kimberly M.

    Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

  12. The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

    2016-12-01

    The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

  13. A global biogeochemical mass balance model for vanadium

    SciTech Connect

    Hope, B.K.

    1995-12-31

    Vanadium is a major trace metal in fossil fuels and combustion of these materials provides a significant source of vanadium in the environment. Close correlation exists between atmospheric vanadium concentration and fuel consumption, so that atmospheric vanadium pentoxide has been used as an indicator of human industrial activity. Little vanadium is retained in refined oil products, and vanadium contamination occurs as fallout from refining operations and burning of residual oils. This is the major cause for the approximate doubling of the environmental flux of vanadium as a result of human activity; other sources are products of coal combustion, leachates, and effluents from mining and milling of uranium and titanium. It was estimated in 1975 that the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources equaled the input from natural sources. Such evidence that environmental levels of vanadium are increasing has raised concern over the injection of vanadium into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources. A simple global mass balance model was developed to demonstrate the influence of anthropogenic vanadium on the global distribution of this trace metal. Vanadium in particulate emissions owing to man`s industrial activities were estimated to comprise {approx} 53% of total atmosphere vanadium loading and exceeded natural continental or volcanogenic dust by only a narrow margin. Oceanic deposition of vanadium adhering to anthropogenic particles was estimated to comprise {approx} 5% of total ocean vanadium loading. There is no suggestion that these inputs of anthropogenic vanadium pose a significant global environmental threat. It is entirely possible, however, that anthropogenic vanadium inputs could pose an environmental hazard given a more restricted area and a specific set of unfavorable circumstances.

  14. A global predictive model of carbon in mangrove soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jardine, Sunny L.; Siikamäki, Juha V.

    2014-10-01

    Mangroves are among the most threatened and rapidly vanishing natural environments worldwide. They provide a wide range of ecosystem services and have recently become known for their exceptional capacity to store carbon. Research shows that mangrove conservation may be a low-cost means of reducing CO2 emissions. Accordingly, there is growing interest in developing market mechanisms to credit mangrove conservation projects for associated CO2 emissions reductions. These efforts depend on robust and readily applicable, but currently unavailable, localized estimates of soil carbon. Here, we use over 900 soil carbon measurements, collected in 28 countries by 61 independent studies, to develop a global predictive model for mangrove soil carbon. Using climatological and locational data as predictors, we explore several predictive modeling alternatives, including machine-learning methods. With our predictive model, we construct a global dataset of estimated soil carbon concentrations and stocks on a high-resolution grid (5 arc min). We estimate that the global mangrove soil carbon stock is 5.00 ± 0.94 Pg C (assuming a 1 meter soil depth) and find this stock is highly variable over space. The amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-rich mangroves (approximately 703 ± 38 Mg C ha-1) is roughly a 2.6 ± 0.14 times the amount of carbon per hectare in the world’s most carbon-poor mangroves (approximately 272 ± 49 Mg C ha-1). Considerable within country variation in mangrove soil carbon also exists. In Indonesia, the country with the largest mangrove soil carbon stock, we estimate that the most carbon-rich mangroves contain 1.5 ± 0.12 times as much carbon per hectare as the most carbon-poor mangroves. Our results can aid in evaluating benefits from mangrove conservation and designing mangrove conservation policy. Additionally, the results can be used to project changes in mangrove soil carbon stocks based on changing climatological predictors, e.g. to

  15. Modelling global nutrient retention by river damming: Phosphorus and silicon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maavara, Taylor; Dürr, Hans; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2014-05-01

    The phosphorus to silicon (P:Si) nutrient ratio is a key variable affecting ecosystem health in many aquatic environments. River damming represents a major anthropogenic perturbation of natural material flows along the aquatic continuum, with the potential to profoundly modify absolute and relative nutrient availabilities in surface waters. In this study, a multi-tiered approach for estimating global nutrient retention in man-made reservoirs is presented. We illustrate its application to the global riverine flux of reactive Si, using a database of dissolved reactive Si (DSi) budgets for 24 natural lakes and 22 artificial reservoirs. The database includes information on bedrock geology, surface water pH, water residence time, reservoir age and function, climate, and trophic status. Statistical analyses (ANOVA, t-test, PCA, linear plus non-linear regressions) are used to identify the best predictors of DSi retention and delineate how reservoir properties modulate nutrient dynamics. Results indicate that (1) reservoirs retain significantly less DSi than natural lakes, and (2) the water residence time, reservoir age and function (e.g., hydroelectrical production, irrigation, flood control) are the main system variables controlling DSi retention by dams. Next, a biogeochemical Si model is used to reproduce the previously derived statistical trends for DSi retention. Calibration of the model yields a relationship that enables one to predict annual in-reservoir siliceous productivity as a function of the external reactive Si supply. The model further accounts for the transition from reservoirs where reactive Si retention is primarily due to burial of allochtonous Si to those where in-reservoir DSi uptake by diatoms dominates. Finally, the statistical and mechanistic relationships are extrapolated to estimate that 25-28 Tg SiO2 yr-1 are retained worldwide by dams, or 7% of the annual reactive Si load to watersheds. We are currently applying the same multi-tiered approach

  16. A dynamic model for the global cycling of anthropogenic vanadium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hope, Bruce K.

    2008-12-01

    Vanadium is a major trace metal in fossil fuels. Combustion of residual fuel oils and coal in industrialized economies is recognized as the major source of anthropogenic vanadium. A dynamic mass balance model assessed the influence of anthropogenic inputs on the global distribution and cycling of vanadium between 1700 and 2400 assuming different fossil fuel consumption and V production (mining) scenarios. Anthropogenic V sources were divided into fossil fuel combustion, industrial, and domestic (nonindustrial human activity). By 2050, inputs of anthropogenic V could comprise ≈75-85% of those to the atmosphere, ≈21-33% to ocean dissolved, ≈9-13% to ocean particulate, and ≈28-43% of inputs to land; with between ≈61-64% of all anthropogenic inputs attributable to fossil fuel combustion. Contributions from combustion and industrial sources, although dominant relative to contributions from domestic sources between 1900 and 2100, were estimated to peak between 2000 and 2050. Accumulation of anthropogenic V on land and in the ocean apparently occurs because natural removal processes are unable to cope with increasing amounts and rates of anthropogenic contributions. Impacts or hazards associated with anthropogenic inputs are unlikely to be discernible or significant on a global scale, but may be measurable and meaningful at smaller scales (coastal waters, continental shelves, and bays), in the locality of specific sources, or given an unfavorable exposure scenario.

  17. An empirical model for global earthquake fatality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David

    2010-01-01

    We analyzed mortality rates of earthquakes worldwide and developed a country/region-specific empirical model for earthquake fatality estimation within the U. S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is defined as total killed divided by total population exposed at specific shaking intensity level. The total fatalities for a given earthquake are estimated by multiplying the number of people exposed at each shaking intensity level by the fatality rates for that level and then summing them at all relevant shaking intensities. The fatality rate is expressed in terms of a two-parameter lognormal cumulative distribution function of shaking intensity. The parameters are obtained for each country or a region by minimizing the residual error in hindcasting the total shaking-related deaths from earthquakes recorded between 1973 and 2007. A new global regionalization scheme is used to combine the fatality data across different countries with similar vulnerability traits. [DOI: 10.1193/1.3480331

  18. Calibration and testing or models of the global carbon cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Emanuel, W.R.; Killough, G.G.; Shugart, H.H. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    A ten-compartment model of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon is presented. The two less-abundant isotopes of carbon, /sup 13/C and /sup 14/C, as well as total carbon, are considered. The cycling of carbon in the ocean is represented by two well-mixed compartments and in the world's terrestrial ecosystems by seven compartments, five which are dynamic and two with instantaneous transfer. An internally consistent procedure for calibrating this model against an assumed initial steady state is discussed. In particular, the constraint that the average /sup 13/C//sup 12/C ratio in the total flux from the terrestrial component of the model to the atmosphere be equal to that of the steady-state atmosphere is investigated. With this additional constraint, the model provides a more accurate representation of the influence of the terrestrial system on the /sup 13/C//sup 12/C ratio of the atmosphere and provides an improved basis for interpreting records, such as tree rings, reflecting historical changes in this ratio.

  19. California Wintertime Precipitation in Regional and Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Caldwell, P M

    2009-04-27

    In this paper, wintertime precipitation from a variety of observational datasets, regional climate models (RCMs), and general circulation models (GCMs) is averaged over the state of California (CA) and compared. Several averaging methodologies are considered and all are found to give similar values when model grid spacing is less than 3{sup o}. This suggests that CA is a reasonable size for regional intercomparisons using modern GCMs. Results show that reanalysis-forced RCMs tend to significantly overpredict CA precipitation. This appears to be due mainly to overprediction of extreme events; RCM precipitation frequency is generally underpredicted. Overprediction is also reflected in wintertime precipitation variability, which tends to be too high for RCMs on both daily and interannual scales. Wintertime precipitation in most (but not all) GCMs is underestimated. This is in contrast to previous studies based on global blended gauge/satellite observations which are shown here to underestimate precipitation relative to higher-resolution gauge-only datasets. Several GCMs provide reasonable daily precipitation distributions, a trait which doesn't seem tied to model resolution. GCM daily and interannual variability is generally underpredicted.

  20. Values and uncertainties in the predictions of global climate models.

    PubMed

    Winsberg, Eric

    2012-06-01

    Over the last several years, there has been an explosion of interest and attention devoted to the problem of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in climate science-that is, to giving quantitative estimates of the degree of uncertainty associated with the predictions of global and regional climate models. The technical challenges associated with this project are formidable, and so the statistical community has understandably devoted itself primarily to overcoming them. But even as these technical challenges are being met, a number of persistent conceptual difficulties remain. So why is UQ so important in climate science? UQ, I would like to argue, is first and foremost a tool for communicating knowledge from experts to policy makers in a way that is meant to be free from the influence of social and ethical values. But the standard ways of using probabilities to separate ethical and social values from scientific practice cannot be applied in a great deal of climate modeling, because the roles of values in creating the models cannot be discerned after the fact-the models are too complex and the result of too much distributed epistemic labor. I argue, therefore, that typical approaches for handling ethical/social values in science do not work well here.

  1. Investigating model deficiencies in the global budget of ethane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tzompa Sosa, Z. A.; Keller, C. A.; Turner, A. J.; Mahieu, E.; Franco, B.; Fischer, E. V.

    2015-12-01

    Many locations in the Northern Hemisphere show a statistically-significant sharp increase in measurements of ethane (C2H6) since 2009. It is hypothesized that the recent massive growth of shale gas exploitation in North America could be the source of this change. However, state-of-the-science chemical transport models are currently unable to reproduce the hemispheric burden of C2H6 or the recent sharp increase, pointing to a potential problem with current emission inventories. To resolve this, we used space-borne CH4 observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) to derive C2H6 emissions. By using known emission ratios to CH4, we estimated emissions of C2H6 from oil and gas activities, biofuels, and biomass burning over North America. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model was used to simulate atmospheric abundances of C2H6 with the new emissions estimates. The model is able to reproduce Northern Hemisphere surface concentrations. However, the model significantly under-predicts the amount of C2H6 throughout the column and the observed Northern Hemispheric gradient as diagnosed by comparisons to aircraft observations from the Hiaper Pole-to-Pole (HIPPO) Campaign.

  2. Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max; Schubert, Siegfried

    2010-01-01

    The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

  3. A New Global Core Plasma Model of the Plasmasphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gallagher, D. L.; Comfort, R. H.; Craven, P. D.

    2014-01-01

    The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, make possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented. Specifically shown here are the inner-plasmasphere RIMS measurements, radial fits to densities and temperatures for H(+), He(+), He(++), O(+), and O(+) and the error associated with these initial simple fits. Also shown are more subtle dependencies on the f10.7 P-value (see Richards et al. [1994]).

  4. The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this work is to estimate sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal samplings by satellites. In particular, the sampling errors of the proposed low inclination orbit satellite of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (35 deg inclination and 350 km altitude), one of the sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites of NOAA series (98.89 deg inclination and 833 km altitude), and two simultaneous sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites--assumed to carry a perfect passive microwave sensor for direct rainfall measurements--will be estimated. This estimate is done by performing a study of the satellite orbits and the autocovariance function of the area-averaged rain rate time series. A model based on an exponential fit of the autocovariance function is used for actual calculations. Varying visiting intervals and total coverage of averaging area on each visit by the satellites are taken into account in the model. The data are generated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). The model has a diurnal cycle and parameterized convective processes. A special run of the GCM was made at NASA/GSFC in which the rainfall and precipitable water fields were retained globally for every hour of the run for the whole year.

  5. The Glacial BuzzSaw, Isostasy, and Global Crustal Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levander, A.; Oncken, O.; Niu, F.

    2015-12-01

    The glacial buzzsaw hypothesis predicts that maximum elevations in orogens at high latitudes are depressed relative to temperate latitudes, as maximum elevation and hypsography of glaciated orogens are functions of the glacial equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and the modern and last glacial maximum (LGM) snowlines. As a consequence crustal thickness, density, or both must change with increasing latitude to maintain isostatic balance. For Airy compensation crustal thickness should decrease toward polar latitudes, whereas for Pratt compensation crustal densities should increase. For similar convergence rates, higher latitude orogens should have higher grade, and presumably higher density rocks in the crustal column due to more efficient glacial erosion. We have examined a number of global and regional crustal models to see if these predictions appear in the models. Crustal thickness is straightforward to examine, crustal density less so. The different crustal models generally agree with one another, but do show some major differences. We used a standard tectonic classification scheme of the crust for data selection. The globally averaged orogens show crustal thicknesses that decrease toward high latitudes, almost reflecting topography, in both the individual crustal models and the models averaged together. The most convincing is the western hemisphere cordillera, where elevations and crustal thicknesses decrease toward the poles, and also toward lower latitudes (the equatorial minimum is at ~12oN). The elevation differences and Airy prediction of crustal thickness changes are in reasonable agreement in the North American Cordillera, but in South America the observed crustal thickness change is larger than the Airy prediction. The Alpine-Himalayan chain shows similar trends, however the strike of the chain makes interpretation ambiguous. We also examined cratons with ice sheets during the last glacial period to see if continental glaciation also thins the crust toward

  6. Integration of nitrogen dynamics into a global terrestrial ecosystem model

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Xiaojuan; Wittig, Victoria; Jain, Atul; Post, Wilfred M

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive model of terrestrial N dynamics has been developed and coupled with the geographically explicit terrestrial C cycle component of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). The coupled C-N cycle model represents all the major processes in the N cycle and all major interactions between C and N that affect plant productivity and soil and litter decomposition. Observations from the LIDET data set were compiled for calibration and evaluation of the decomposition submodel within ISAM. For aboveground decomposition, the calibration is accomplished by optimizing parameters related to four processes: the partitioning of leaf litter between metabolic and structural material, the effect of lignin on decomposition, the climate control on decomposition and N mineralization and immobilization. For belowground decomposition, the calibrated processes include the partitioning of root litter between decomposable and resistant material as a function of litter quality, N mineralization and immobilization. The calibrated model successfully captured both the C and N dynamics during decomposition for all major biomes and a wide range of climate conditions. Model results show that net N immobilization and mineralization during litter decomposition are dominantly controlled by initial N concentration of litter and the mass remaining during decomposition. The highest and lowest soil organicNstorage are in tundra (1.24 KgNm2) and desert soil (0.06 Kg N m2). The vegetation N storage is highest in tropical forests (0.5 Kg N m2), and lowest in tundra and desert (<0.03 Kg N m2). N uptake by vegetation is highest in warm and moist regions, and lowest in cold and dry regions. Higher rates of N leaching are found in tropical regions and subtropical regions where soil moisture is higher. The global patterns of vegetation and soil N, N uptake and N leaching estimated with ISAM are consistent with measurements and previous modeling studies. This gives us confidence that ISAM

  7. Modelling global water stress at the monthly time-scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Weingartner, R.; Viviroli, D.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2009-04-01

    It is estimated that currently over one billion people have problems obtaining access to sufficient freshwater resources, while due to population growth and climate change the number of people affected by water scarcity and water stress will rise to four billion by 2050 (UNEP, 1999). To assess current water stress and it development under different socio-ecomomic and climate scenario's Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) are important tools. Until now, GHM-analyses calculating water demand and water availability have been performed on yearly totals only. However, it can be expected that availability of water is often out of phase with water demand and that actual water stress may be underestimated using yearly totals. Also, yearly budgets cannot shed light on the persistence and recurrence time of water stress. In this paper we present an analysis of global water stress based on monthly data of water availability and water demand. Here, severe water stress is defined to occur in case local water demand exceeds 40 percent of the local water availability A 40-year time series of water availibility is obtained by the GHM PCR-GLOBWB forced with CRU meteorological data downscaled to daily time steps using the ERA40 re-analysis dataset. Thus, apart from representing a within-year regime, the water availability analyses also consider between-year climate variability. Availability calculations contain both local precipitation surplus (precipitation minus evaporation), but also upstream river discharge, water in reservoirs, groundwater abstraction as well as green water (soil water used by irrigated crops). Water demand is calculated on a monthly basis for the year 2000, while these monthly values are taken constant over the years. It consists of water demand for agriculture (both rainfed as well as irrigated and lifestock), industry and domestic water use. Domestic water demand as well as the recycling fraction of industrial and domestic water demand for each country are

  8. Modelling global water stress at the monthly time-scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, Y.; van Beek, R. L.; Viviroli, D.; Weingartner, R.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2008-12-01

    It is estimated that currently over one billion people have problems obtaining access to sufficient freshwater resources, while due to population growth and climate change the number of people affected by water scarcity and water stress will rise to four billion by 2050 (UNEP, 1999). To assess current water stress and it development under different socio-ecomomic and climate scenario's Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) are important tools. Until now, GHM-analyses calculating water demand and water availability have been performed on yearly totals only. However, it can be expected that availability of water is often out of phase with water demand and that actual water stress may be underestimated using yearly totals. Also, yearly budgets cannot shed light on the persistence and recurrence time of water stress. In this paper we present an analysis of global water stress based on monthly data of water availability and water demand. Here, severe water stress is defined to occur in case local water demand exceeds 40% of the local water availability A 40-year time series of water availibility is obtained by the GHM PCR-GLOBWB forced with CRU meteorological data downscaled to daily time steps using the ERA40 re-analysis dataset. Thus, apart from representing a within-year regime, the water availability analyses also consider between-year climate variability. Availability calculations contain both local precipitation surplus (precipitation minus evaporation), but also upstream river discharge, water in reservoirs, groundwater abstraction as well as green water (soil water used by irrigated crops). Water demand is calculated on a monthly basis for the year 2000, while these monthly values are taken constant over the years. It consists of water demand for agriculture (both rainfed as well as irrigated and lifestock), industry and domestic water use. Domestic water demand as well as the recycling fraction of industrial and domestic water demand for each country are related to

  9. A model of global citizenship: antecedents and outcomes.

    PubMed

    Reysen, Stephen; Katzarska-Miller, Iva

    2013-01-01

    As the world becomes increasingly interconnected, exposure to global cultures affords individuals opportunities to develop global identities. In two studies, we examine the antecedents and outcomes of identifying with a superordinate identity--global citizen. Global citizenship is defined as awareness, caring, and embracing cultural diversity while promoting social justice and sustainability, coupled with a sense of responsibility to act. Prior theory and research suggest that being aware of one's connection with others in the world (global awareness) and embedded in settings that value global citizenship (normative environment) lead to greater identification with global citizens. Furthermore, theory and research suggest that when global citizen identity is salient, greater identification is related to adherence to the group's content (i.e., prosocial values and behaviors). Results of the present set of studies showed that global awareness (knowledge and interconnectedness with others) and one's normative environment (friends and family support global citizenship) predicted identification with global citizens, and global citizenship predicted prosocial values of intergroup empathy, valuing diversity, social justice, environmental sustainability, intergroup helping, and a felt responsibility to act for the betterment of the world. The relationship between antecedents (normative environment and global awareness) and outcomes (prosocial values) was mediated by identification with global citizens. We discuss the relationship between the present results and other research findings in psychology, the implications of global citizenship for other academic domains, and future avenues of research. Global citizenship highlights the unique effect of taking a global perspective on a multitude of topics relevant to the psychology of everyday actions, environments, and identity.

  10. Fluid versus global model approach for the modeling of active species production by streamer discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levko, Dmitry; Raja, Laxminarayan L.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we seek to validate the zero-dimensional (global) model approach for the modeling of the plasma composition in high pressure reactive streamer discharges. We focus on streamers typical of dielectric barrier discharge that are widely used, for instance, for plasma-assisted reforming of greenhouse gases. However, our conclusions can be extended to the streamers used in plasma-assisted ignition/combustion and other related systems. First, we perform two-dimensional fluid simulations for streamers with positive and negative trigger voltages and analyze the difference between the breakdown mechanisms of these two modes. Second, we use the time evolution of the electron heating term obtained from the fluid simulations as the input parameter of the global model and compare the plasma component content predicted by this model with the results of the fluid model. We obtain a very good agreement between fluid and global models for all species generated in plasma. However, we conclude that streamers initiated by the positive and negative trigger voltage cannot be considered as symmetrical which is usually done in global models of barrier discharge reactors.

  11. Atmospheric trace gases and global climate - A seasonal model study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Wei-Chyung; Molnar, Gyula; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Goldenberg, Steven; Sze, Nien Dak

    1990-01-01

    Atmospheric models with seasonal cycles are used to study the possible near-future changes in latitudinal and vertical distributions of atmospheric ozone and temperature caused by increases of trace gases. It is found that increases of CFCs, CH4, and N2O may add to the surface warming from increased CO2. Calculations based on projected trends of CO2, N2O, CH4, and CFCs show that the annual mean and global mean surface temperature could warm by as much as 2.5 C by the year 2050, with larger warming at high latitudes. The results suggest that the warming in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere is much larger than that at the surface, especially during the summer season.

  12. Validation and Verification with Applications to a Kinetic Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verboncoeur, J. P.

    2014-10-01

    As scientific software matures, verification, validation, benchmarking, and error estimation are becoming increasingly important to ensure predictable operation. Having well-described and consistent data is critical for consistent results. This presentation briefly addresses the motivation for V&V, the history and goals of the workshop series. A roadmap of the current workshop is presented. Finally, examples of V&V are applied to a novel kinetic global model for a series of low temperature plasma problems ranging from verification of specific rate equations to benchmarks and validation with other codes and experimental data for Penning breakdown and hydrocarbon plasmas. The results are included in the code release to ensure repeatability following code modifications. In collaboration with G. Parsey, J. Kempf, and A. Christlieb, Michigan State University. This work is supported in part by a U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research Basic Research Initiative and a Michigan State University Strategic Partnership grant.

  13. The dependence of global ocean modeling on background diapycnal mixing.

    PubMed

    Deng, Zengan

    2014-01-01

    The Argo-derived background diapycnal mixing (BDM) proposed by Deng et al. (in publish) is introduced to and applied in Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Sensitive experiments are carried out using HYCOM to detect the responses of ocean surface temperature and Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) to BDM in a global context. Preliminary results show that utilizing a constant BDM, with the same order of magnitude as the realistic one, may cause significant deviation in temperature and MOC. It is found that the dependence of surface temperature and MOC on BDM is prominent. Surface temperature is decreased with the increase of BDM, because diapycnal mixing can promote the deep cold water return to the upper ocean. Comparing to the control run, more striking MOC changes can be caused by the larger variation in BDM.

  14. Revised Perturbation Statistics for the Global Scale Atmospheric Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Woodrum, A.

    1975-01-01

    Magnitudes and scales of atmospheric perturbations about the monthly mean for the thermodynamic variables and wind components are presented by month at various latitudes. These perturbation statistics are a revision of the random perturbation data required for the global scale atmospheric model program and are from meteorological rocket network statistical summaries in the 22 to 65 km height range and NASA grenade and pitot tube data summaries in the region up to 90 km. The observed perturbations in the thermodynamic variables were adjusted to make them consistent with constraints required by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic equation. Vertical scales were evaluated by Buell's depth of pressure system equation and from vertical structure function analysis. Tables of magnitudes and vertical scales are presented for each month at latitude 10, 30, 50, 70, and 90 degrees.

  15. Next generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheiter, Simon; Higgins, Steven; Langan, Liam

    2013-04-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models are a powerful tool to project the past, current and future distribution of vegetation and associated water and carbon fluxes. However, most models are limited by how they define vegetation and by their simplistic representation of competition. We discuss how concepts from community assembly theory and coexistence theory can help to improve vegetation models. We further present a new trait- and individual-based dynamic vegetation model (the aDGVM2) that allows each individual plant to adopt a unique combination of trait values. These traits define how each individual plant grows and competes with other plants under given environmental conditions. The performance of individual plants in turn drives the assembly of a plant community. A genetic optimisation algorithm is used to simulate the inheritance of traits and different levels of reproductive isolation between individuals. Together these model properties allow the assembly of plant communities that are well adapted to a site's biotic and abiotic conditions. Simulated communities can be classified into different plant functional types or biome types by using trait data bases. We illustrate that the aDGVM2 can simulate (1) how environmental conditions and changes in these conditions influence the trait spectra of assembled plant communities, (2) that fire selects for traits that enhance fire protection and reduces trait diversity, and (3) the emergence of communities dominated by life history strategies that are suggestive of colonisation-competition trade-offs. The aDGVM2 deals with functional diversity and competition fundamentally differently from current dynamic vegetation models. We argue that this approach will yield novel insights as to how vegetation may respond to climate change and we believe that it could foster fruitful collaborations between research communities that focus on plant functional traits, plant competition, plant physiology, systems ecology and earth system

  16. Efficient data IO for a Parallel Global Cloud Resolving Model

    SciTech Connect

    Palmer, Bruce J.; Koontz, Annette S.; Schuchardt, Karen L.; Heikes, Ross P.; Randall, David A.

    2011-11-26

    Execution of a Global Cloud Resolving Model (GCRM) at target resolutions of 2-4 km will generate, at a minimum, 10s of Gigabytes of data per variable per snapshot. Writing this data to disk without creating a serious bottleneck in the execution of the GCRM code while also supporting efficient post-execution data analysis is a significant challenge. This paper discusses an Input/Output (IO) application programmer interface (API) for the GCRM that efficiently moves data from the model to disk while maintaining support for community standard formats, avoiding the creation of very large numbers of files, and supporting efficient analysis. Several aspects of the API will be discussed in detail. First, we discuss the output data layout which linearizes the data in a consistent way that is independent of the number of processors used to run the simulation and provides a convenient format for subsequent analyses of the data. Second, we discuss the flexible API interface that enables modelers to easily add variables to the output stream by specifying where in the GCRM code these variables are located and to flexibly configure the choice of outputs and distribution of data across files. The flexibility of the API is designed to allow model developers to add new data fields to the output as the model develops and new physics is added and also provides a mechanism for allowing users of the GCRM code itself to adjust the output frequency and the number of fields written depending on the needs of individual calculations. Third, we describe the mapping to the NetCDF data model with an emphasis on the grid description. Fourth, we describe our messaging algorithms and IO aggregation strategies that are used to achieve high bandwidth while simultaneously writing concurrently from many processors to shared files. We conclude with initial performance results.

  17. TOPEX/POSEIDON tides estimated using a global inverse model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Egbert, Gary D.; Bennett, Andrew F.; Foreman, Michael G. G.

    1994-01-01

    Altimetric data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON mission will be used for studies of global ocean circulation and marine geophysics. However, it is first necessary to remove the ocean tides, which are aliased in the raw data. The tides are constrained by the two distinct types of information: the hydrodynamic equations which the tidal fields of elevations and velocities must satisfy, and direct observational data from tide gauges and satellite altimetry. Here we develop and apply a generalized inverse method, which allows us to combine rationally all of this information into global tidal fields best fitting both the data and the dynamics, in a least squares sense. The resulting inverse solution is a sum of the direct solution to the astronomically forced Laplace tidal equations and a linear combination of the representers for the data functionals. The representer functions (one for each datum) are determined by the dynamical equations, and by our prior estimates of the statistics or errors in these equations. Our major task is a direct numerical calculation of these representers. This task is computationally intensive, but well suited to massively parallel processing. By calculating the representers we reduce the full (infinite dimensional) problem to a relatively low-dimensional problem at the outset, allowing full control over the conditioning and hence the stability of the inverse solution. With the representers calculated we can easily update our model as additional TOPEX/POSEIDON data become available. As an initial illustration we invert harmonic constants from a set of 80 open-ocean tide gauges. We then present a practical scheme for direct inversion of TOPEX/POSEIDON crossover data. We apply this method to 38 cycles of geophysical data records (GDR) data, computing preliminary global estimates of the four principal tidal constituents, M(sub 2), S(sub 2), K(sub 1) and O(sub 1). The inverse solution yields tidal fields which are simultaneously smoother, and in better

  18. A role for the anterior insular cortex in the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness.

    PubMed

    Michel, Matthias

    2017-03-01

    According to the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness, consciousness results from the global broadcast of information throughout the brain. The global neuronal workspace is mainly constituted by a fronto-parietal network. The anterior insular cortex is part of this global neuronal workspace, but the function of this region has not yet been defined within the global neuronal workspace model of consciousness. In this review, I hypothesize that the anterior insular cortex implements a cross-modal priority map, the function of which is to determine priorities for the processing of information and subsequent entrance in the global neuronal workspace.

  19. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon

    2016-04-01

    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  20. Global Modeling of Tropospheric Chemistry with Assimilated Meteorology: Model Description and Evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bey, Isabelle; Jacob, Daniel J.; Yantosca, Robert M.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Field, Brendan D.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Li, Qin-Bin; Liu, Hong-Yu; Mickley, Loretta J.; Schultz, Martin G.

    2001-01-01

    We present a first description and evaluation of GEOS-CHEM, a global three-dimensional (3-D) model of tropospheric chemistry driven by assimilated meteorological observations from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO). The model is applied to a 1-year simulation of tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry for 1994, and is evaluated with observations both for 1994 and for other years. It reproduces usually to within 10 ppb the concentrations of ozone observed from the worldwide ozonesonde data network. It simulates correctly the seasonal phases and amplitudes of ozone concentrations for different regions and altitudes, but tends to underestimate the seasonal amplitude at northern midlatitudes. Observed concentrations of NO and peroxyacetylnitrate (PAN) observed in aircraft campaigns are generally reproduced to within a factor of 2 and often much better. Concentrations of HNO3 in the remote troposphere are overestimated typically by a factor of 2-3, a common problem in global models that may reflect a combination of insufficient precipitation scavenging and gas-aerosol partitioning not resolved by the model. The model yields an atmospheric lifetime of methylchloroform (proxy for global OH) of 5.1 years, as compared to a best estimate from observations of 5.5 plus or minus 0.8 years, and simulates H2O2 concentrations observed from aircraft with significant regional disagreements but no global bias. The OH concentrations are approximately 20% higher than in our previous global 3-D model which included an UV-absorbing aerosol. Concentrations of CO tend to be underestimated by the model, often by 10-30 ppb, which could reflect a combination of excessive OH (a 20% decrease in model OH could be accommodated by the methylchloroform constraint) and an underestimate of CO sources (particularly biogenic). The model underestimates observed acetone concentrations over the South Pacific in fall by a factor of 3; a missing source

  1. Simulation of 3D Global Wave Propagation Through Geodynamic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuberth, B.; Piazzoni, A.; Bunge, H.; Igel, H.; Steinle-Neumann, G.

    2005-12-01

    This project aims at a better understanding of the forward problem of global 3D wave propagation. We use the spectral element program "SPECFEM3D" (Komatitsch and Tromp, 2002a,b) with varying input models of seismic velocities derived from mantle convection simulations (Bunge et al., 2002). The purpose of this approach is to obtain seismic velocity models independently from seismological studies. In this way one can test the effects of varying parameters of the mantle convection models on the seismic wave field. In order to obtain the seismic velocities from the temperature field of the geodynamical simulations we follow a mineral physics approach. Assuming a certain mantle composition (e.g. pyrolite with CMASF composition) we compute the stable phases for each depth (i.e. pressure) and temperature by system Gibbs free energy minimization. Elastic moduli and density are calculated from the equations of state of the stable mineral phases. For this we use a mineral physics database derived from calorimetric experiments (enthalphy and entropy of formation, heat capacity) and EOS parameters.

  2. Assimilating ocean tide determined data into global tidal models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahel, W.

    1995-01-01

    A data assimilation procedure, which has successfully been applied to fictive and realistic scenarios, is applied to a 1 °-model making use of an effective iterative method for the solution of the minimization problem. Two sets of ocean tide determined data are used for the purpose of assimilation, the more extensive one mainly comprising pelagic together with some coastal sea surface elevation data, and the other one consisting of loading gravity data. The computed O1 and M2 global tidal oscillation systems, namely the fields of tidal elevation and loading gravity, are compared with numerous additional pelagic and coastal elevation data and with a selected number of proper gravity data, respectively. The assimilation of the two sets of data leads to an enormous reduction of the errors of the model results in all oceans. Assimilating this altogether still restricted number of data, allows studying the generation of realistic tidal oscillation phenomena by individual data and comparing these data effects with those having been obtained by previous data assimilation experiments using a model with coarser grid spacing. The field of dynamical residuals resulting from data assimilation reflects the far reaching influence of the data, and it is shown that the spatially integrated work done by the residuals contributes to the in all reduced rate of dissipation in the tidal power balance.

  3. Global emissions and models of photochemically active compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Penner, J.E.; Atherton, C.S.; Graedel, T.E.

    1993-05-20

    Anthropogenic emissions from industrial activity, fossil fuel combustion, and biomass burning are now known to be large enough (relative to natural sources) to perturb the chemistry of vast regions of the troposphere. A goal of the IGAC Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) is to provide authoritative and reliable emissions inventories on a 1{degree} {times} 1{degree} grid. When combined with atmospheric photochemical models, these high quality emissions inventories may be used to predict the concentrations of major photochemical products. Comparison of model results with measurements of pertinent species allows us to understand whether there are major shortcomings in our understanding of tropospheric photochemistry, the budgets and transport of trace species, and their effects in the atmosphere. Through this activity, we are building the capability to make confident predictions of the future consequences of anthropogenic emissions. This paper compares IGAC recommended emissions inventories for reactive nitrogen and sulfur dioxide to those that have been in use previously. We also present results from the three-dimensional LLNL atmospheric chemistry model that show how emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides might potentially affect tropospheric ozone and OH concentrations and how emissions of anthropogenic sulfur increase sulfate aerosol loadings.

  4. Intercomparison of the Cloud Water Phase among Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Komurcu, Muge; Storelvmo, Trude; Tan, Ivy; Lohmann, U.; Yun, Yuxing; Penner, Joyce E.; Wang, Yong; Liu, Xiaohong; Takemura, T.

    2014-03-27

    Mixed-phase clouds (clouds that consist of both cloud droplets and ice crystals) are frequently present in the Earth’s atmosphere and influence the Earth’s energy budget through their radiative properties, which are highly dependent on the cloud water phase. In this study, the phase partitioning of cloud water is compared among six global climate models (GCMs) and with Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization retrievals. It is found that the GCMs predict vastly different distributions of cloud phase for a given temperature, and none of them are capable of reproducing the spatial distribution or magnitude of the observed phase partitioning. While some GCMs produced liquid water paths comparable to satellite observations, they all failed to preserve sufficient liquid water at mixed-phase cloud temperatures. Our results suggest that validating GCMs using only the vertically integrated water contents could lead to amplified differences in cloud radiative feedback. The sensitivity of the simulated cloud phase in GCMs to the choice of heterogeneous ice nucleation parameterization is also investigated. The response to a change in ice nucleation is quite different for each GCM, and the implementation of the same ice nucleation parameterization in all models does not reduce the spread in simulated phase among GCMs. The results suggest that processes subsequent to ice nucleation are at least as important in determining phase and should be the focus of future studies aimed at understanding and reducing differences among the models.

  5. GRAM 88 - 4D GLOBAL REFERENCE ATMOSPHERE MODEL-1988

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, D. L.

    1994-01-01

    The Four-D Global Reference Atmosphere program was developed from an empirical atmospheric model which generates values for pressure, density, temperature, and winds from surface level to orbital altitudes. This program can generate altitude profiles of atmospheric parameters along any simulated trajectory through the atmosphere. The program was developed for design applications in the Space Shuttle program, such as the simulation of external tank re-entry trajectories. Other potential applications are global circulation and diffusion studies; also the generation of profiles for comparison with other atmospheric measurement techniques such as satellite measured temperature profiles and infrasonic measurement of wind profiles. GRAM-88 is the latest version of the software GRAM. The software GRAM-88 contains a number of changes that have improved the model statistics, in particular, the small scale density perturbation statistics. It also corrected a low latitude grid problem as well as the SCIDAT data base. Furthermore, GRAM-88 now uses the U.S. Standard Atmosphere 1976 as a comparison standard rather than the US62 used in other versions. The program is an amalgamation of two empirical atmospheric models for the low (25km) and the high (90km) atmosphere, with a newly developed latitude-longitude dependent model for the middle atmosphere. The Jacchia (1970) model simulates the high atmospheric region above 115km. The Jacchia program sections are in separate subroutines so that other thermosphericexospheric models could easily be adapted if required for special applications. The improved code eliminated the calculation of geostrophic winds above 125 km altitude from the model. The atmospheric region between 30km and 90km is simulated by a latitude-longitude dependent empirical model modification of the latitude dependent empirical model of Groves (1971). A fairing technique between 90km and 115km accomplished a smooth transition between the modified Groves values and

  6. An exploration of Saturn's atmospheric dynamics with Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Meurdesoif, Yann; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

    2015-04-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons' distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth's middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn's atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge of

  7. An exploration of Saturn's stratospheric dynamics through Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Mélody; Thierry, Fouchet; Meurdesoif, Yann; Thomas, Dubos

    2014-11-01

    A decade of Cassini observations has yielded a new vision on the dynamical phenomena in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere. Several puzzling signatures (equatorial oscillations with a period of about half a Saturn year, interhemispheric circulations affecting the hydrocarbons’ distribution, including possible effects of rings shadowing, sudden warming associated with the powerful 2010 Great White Spot) cannot be explained by current photochemical and radiative models, which do not include dynamics. We therefore suspect that 1. the observed anomalies arise from large-scale dynamical circulations and 2. those large-scale dynamical motions are driven by atmospheric waves, eddies, and convection, in other words fundamental mechanisms giving birth to, e.g., the Quasi-Biennal Oscillation and Brewer-Dobson circulation in the Earth’s middle atmosphere. We explore the plausibility of this scenario using our new Global Climate Modeling (GCM) for Saturn. To build this model, we firstly formulated dedicated physical parameterizations for Saturn’s atmosphere, with a particular emphasis on radiative computations (using a correlated-k radiative transfer model, with radiative species and spectral discretization tailored for Saturn) aimed at both efficiency and accuracy, and validated them against existing Cassini observations. A second step consisted in coupling this radiative model to an hydrodynamical solver to predict the three-dimensional evolution of Saturn's tropospheric and stratospheric flow. We will provide an analysis of the first results of those dynamical simulations, with a focus on the development of baroclinic and barotropic instability, on eddy vs. mean flow interactions, and how this could relate to the enigmatic signatures observed by Cassini. Preliminary high-resolution simulations with a new icosahedral dynamical solver adapted to high-performance computing will also be analyzed. Perspectives are twofold: firstly, broadening our fundamental knowledge

  8. Global sensitivity analysis of the radiative transfer model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neelam, Maheshwari; Mohanty, Binayak P.

    2015-04-01

    With the recently launched Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, it is very important to have a complete understanding of the radiative transfer model for better soil moisture retrievals and to direct future research and field campaigns in areas of necessity. Because natural systems show great variability and complexity with respect to soil, land cover, topography, precipitation, there exist large uncertainties and heterogeneities in model input factors. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using global sensitivity analysis (GSA) technique to study the influence of heterogeneity and uncertainties in model inputs on zero order radiative transfer (ZRT) model and to quantify interactions between parameters. GSA technique is based on decomposition of variance and can handle nonlinear and nonmonotonic functions. We direct our analyses toward growing agricultural fields of corn and soybean in two different regions, Iowa, USA (SMEX02) and Winnipeg, Canada (SMAPVEX12). We noticed that, there exists a spatio-temporal variation in parameter interactions under different soil moisture and vegetation conditions. Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) behaves more non-linearly in SMEX02 and linearly in SMAPVEX12, with average parameter interactions of 14% in SMEX02 and 5% in SMAPVEX12. Also, parameter interactions increased with vegetation water content (VWC) and roughness conditions. Interestingly, soil moisture shows an exponentially decreasing sensitivity function whereas parameters such as root mean square height (RMS height) and vegetation water content show increasing sensitivity with 0.05 v/v increase in soil moisture range. Overall, considering the SMAPVEX12 fields to be water rich environment (due to higher observed SM) and SMEX02 fields to be energy rich environment (due to lower SM and wide ranges of TSURF), our results indicate that first order as well as interactions between the parameters change with water and energy rich environments.

  9. Global Modeling, Field Campaigns, Upscaling and Ray Desjardins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sellers, P. J.; Hall, F. G.

    2012-01-01

    In the early 1980's, it became apparent that land surface radiation and energy budgets were unrealistically represented in Global Circulation models (GCM's), Shortly thereafter, it became clear that the land carbon budget was also poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESM's), A number of scientific communities, including GCM/ESM modelers, micrometeorologists, satellite data specialists and plant physiologists, came together to design field experiments that could be used to develop and validate the contemporary prototype land surface models. These experiments were designed to measure land surface fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor and CO2 using a network of flux towers and other plot-scale techniques, coincident with satellite measurements of related state variables, The interdisciplinary teams involved in these experiments quickly became aware of the scale gap between plot-scale measurements (approx 10 - 100m), satellite measurements (100m - 10 km), and GCM grid areas (l0 - 200km). At the time, there was no established flux measurement capability to bridge these scale gaps. Then, a Canadian science learn led by Ray Desjardins started to actively participate in the design and execution of the experiments, with airborne eddy correlation providing the radically innovative bridge across the scale gaps, In a succession of brilliantly executed field campaigns followed up by convincing scientific analyses, they demonstrated that airborne eddy correlation allied with satellite data was the most powerful upscaling tool available to the community, The rest is history: the realism and credibility of weather and climate models has been enormously improved enormously over the last 25 years with immense benefits to the public and policymakers.

  10. Global instability in the Ghil-Sellers model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bódai, Tamás; Lucarini, Valerio; Lunkeit, Frank; Boschi, Robert

    2014-06-01

    The Ghil-Sellers model, a diffusive one-dimensional energy balance model of Earth's climate, features—for a considerable range of the parameter descriptive of the intensity of the incoming radiation—two stable climate states, where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The warm state is qualitatively similar to the present climate, while the cold state corresponds to snowball conditions. Additionally, in the region of bistability, one can find unstable climate states. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method, which has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. This method has a great potential for studying the global instabilities in multistable systems, and for providing crucial information on the possibility of transitions when forcing is present. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system, the transient dynamics, is approximately confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, connecting the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. Such a constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. Due to this maximum, a transient increase and nonmonotonic evolution of the temperature gradient is possible and not untypical. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by bifurcation diagrams describing the equilibria

  11. Evaluation of the global aerosol microphysical ModelE2-TOMAS model against satellite and ground-based observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Adams, P. J.; Shindell, D. T.

    2015-03-01

    The TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics model has been integrated into the state-of-the-art general circulation model, GISS ModelE2. This paper provides a detailed description of the ModelE2-TOMAS model and evaluates the model against various observations including aerosol precursor gas concentrations, aerosol mass and number concentrations, and aerosol optical depths. Additionally, global budgets in ModelE2-TOMAS are compared with those of other global aerosol models, and the ModelE2-TOMAS model is compared to the default aerosol model in ModelE2, which is a one-moment aerosol (OMA) model (i.e. no aerosol microphysics). Overall, the ModelE2-TOMAS predictions are within the range of other global aerosol model predictions, and the model has a reasonable agreement (mostly within a factor of 2) with observations of sulfur species and other aerosol components as well as aerosol optical depth. However, ModelE2-TOMAS (as well as ModelE2-OMA) cannot capture the observed vertical distribution of sulfur dioxide over the Pacific Ocean, possibly due to overly strong convective transport and overpredicted precipitation. The ModelE2-TOMAS model simulates observed aerosol number concentrations and cloud condensation nuclei concentrations roughly within a factor of 2. Anthropogenic aerosol burdens in ModelE2-OMA differ from ModelE2-TOMAS by a few percent to a factor of 2 regionally, mainly due to differences in aerosol processes including deposition, cloud processing, and emission parameterizations. We observed larger differences for naturally emitted aerosols such as sea salt and mineral dust, as those emission rates are quite different due to different upper size cutoff assumptions.

  12. A Global Flood Model in the Context of the Global Assessment Report 2015: methodology presentation and discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudari, Roberto; Campo, Lorenzo; Silvestro, Francesco; Herold, Christian

    2015-04-01

    The Global Assessment Report (GAR) is a major initiative of the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). It contributes to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA) through monitoring risk patterns and trends and progress in disaster risk reduction and by providing guidance, to governments and non-governmental actors alike, on why and how they can, together, reduce disaster risks. Among its goals is an enhanced Global Risk Model, addressing gaps in current knowledge on risk patterns and trends and providing accurate and credible information for the global disaster risk reduction community. Within this goal the present work aimed at improving the Global Flood Model. The contribution will focus on the Hazard maps definition starting form a combination of stream-flow gauges frequency analysis and Hydrologic-hydraulic modelling. The Hazard maps produced by the Global Flood Model are not considering flood defences and are therefore not suitable as such for risk parameters computations; a post-processing procedure to consider flood defences is proposed and applied. The Hazard maps are then used to produce a full set of Possible Flood scenarios in order to compute PML curves. Results are discussed with reference to some example countries highlighting advantages and limitations of the approach undertaken.

  13. Evaluating groundwater depletion as computed by a global water model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuh, Carina; Doell, Petra; Mueller Schmied, Hannes; Portmann, Felix

    2013-04-01

    When groundwater abstraction occurs faster than its replenishment over a long time and in a large area, the result is an overexploitation or depletion of groundwater. The problem is aggravated in areas where a growing population relies on freshwater resources for an intensive irrigation agriculture that is meant to guarantee food security. Especially in semi-arid and arid regions, the dominant use for groundwater is irrigation, reaching more than 95% of total water use. Therefore, the hot spots for groundwater depletion are the world's major irrigation areas like the central United States, north-western India and north China. Groundwater depletion presents a major threat to securing agricultural productivity and domestic water supply in these parts of the world. Besides, the environmental consequences that accompany the abstraction of groundwater are severe. Within the scientific community there is a common understanding that high-quality data on globally existing groundwater resources are deficient. In order to allow a sustainable management of the world's available groundwater resources, especially in areas under current water stress, the quantification of groundwater depletion is of high importance. WaterGAP (Water - Global Assessment and Prognosis) is a global model of water availability and water use which can serve to estimate the impact of groundwater and surface water withdrawals on groundwater storage. The new WaterGAP version 2.2a was modified to allow for an improved analysis of groundwater storage changes in semi-arid and arid regions. Now, groundwater recharge from surface water bodies is simulated in semi-arid and arid areas. Estimation of net groundwater abstractions was modified with respect of irrigation water use efficiency for groundwater and return flow fractions. In addition, irrigation consumptive use has been set to 70% of optimal irrigation consumptive use, assuming deficit irrigation to prevail in these parts of the world. Based on time

  14. The ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) -for societal benefit -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hato, M.; Tsu, H.; Tachikawa, T.; Abrams, M.; Bailey, B.

    2009-12-01

    The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) was developed jointly by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan and the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the agreement of contribution to GEOSS and a public release was started on June 29th. ASTER GDEM can be downloaded to users from the Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center (ERSDAC) of Japan and NASA’s Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center (LP DAAC) free of charge. The ASTER instrument was built by METI and launched onboard NASA’s Terra spacecraft in December 1999. It has an along-track stereoscopic capability using its near infrared spectral band (NIR) and its nadir-viewing and backward-viewing telescopes to acquire stereo image data with a base-to-height ratio of 0.6. The ASTER GDEM was produced by applying newly-developed automated algorithm to more than 1.2 million NIR data Produced DEMs of all scene data was stacked after cloud masking and finally partitioned into 1° x 1°unit (called ‘tile’) data for convenience of distribution and handling by users. Before start of public distribution, ERSDAC and USGS/NASA together with many volunteers did validation and characterization by using a preliminary product of the ASTER GDEM. As a result of validation, METI and NASA evaluated that Version 1 of the ASTER GDEM has enough quality to be used as “experimental” or “research grade” data and consequently decided to release it. The ASTER GDEM covering almost all land area of from 83N to 83S on the earth represents as an important contribution to the global earth observation community. We will show our effort of development of ASTER GDEM and its accuracy and character.

  15. Lagrangian modeling of global atmospheric methane (1990-2012)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arfeuille, Florian; Henne, Stephan; Brunner, Dominik

    2016-04-01

    In the MAIOLICA-II project, the lagrangian particle model FLEXPART is used to simulate the global atmospheric methane over the 1990-2012 period. In this lagrangian framework, 3 million particles are permanently transported based on winds from ERA-interim. The history of individual particles can be followed allowing for a comprehensive analysis of transport pathways and timescales. The link between sources (emissions) and receptors (measurement stations) is then established in a straightforward manner, a prerequisite for source inversion problems. FLEXPART was extended to incorporate the methane loss by reaction with OH, soil uptake and stratospheric loss reactions with prescribed Cl and O(1d) radicals. Sources are separated into 245 different tracers, depending on source origin (anthropogenic, wetlands, rice, biomass burning, termites, wild animals, oceans, volcanoes), region of emission, and time since emission (5 age classes). The inversion method applied is a fixed-lag Kalman smoother similar to that described in Bruhwiler et al. [2005]. Results from the FLEXPART global methane simulation and from the subsequent inversion will be presented. Results notably suggest: - A reduction in methane growth rates due to diminished wetland emissions and anthropogenic European emission in 1990-1993. - A second decrease in 1995-1996 is also mainly attributed to these two emission categories. - A reduced increase in Chinese anthropogenic emissions after 2003 compared to EDGAR inventories. - Large South American wetlands emissions during the entire period. Bruhwiler, L. M. P., Michalak, A. M., Peters, W., Baker, D. F. & Tans, P. 2005: An improved Kalman smoother fore atmospheric inversions, Atmos Chem Phys, 5, 2691-2702.

  16. TOWARD A GLOBAL EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF PROTOPLANETARY DISKS

    SciTech Connect

    Bai, Xue-Ning

    2016-04-20

    A global picture of the evolution  of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) is key to understanding almost every aspect of planet formation, where standard α-disk models have been continually employed for their simplicity. In the meantime, disk mass loss has been conventionally attributed to photoevaporation, which controls disk dispersal. However, a paradigm shift toward accretion driven by magnetized disk winds has taken place in recent years, thanks to studies of non-ideal magnetohydrodynamic effects in PPDs. I present a framework of global PPD evolution aiming to incorporate these advances, highlighting the role of wind-driven accretion and wind mass loss. Disk evolution is found to be largely dominated by wind-driven processes, and viscous spreading is suppressed. The timescale of disk evolution is controlled primarily by the amount of external magnetic flux threading the disks, and how rapidly the disk loses the flux. Rapid disk dispersal can be achieved if the disk is able to hold most of its magnetic flux during the evolution. In addition, because wind launching requires a sufficient level of ionization at the disk surface (mainly via external far-UV (FUV) radiation), wind kinematics is also affected by the FUV penetration depth and disk geometry. For a typical disk lifetime of a few million years, the disk loses approximately the same amount of mass through the wind as through accretion onto the protostar, and most of the wind mass loss proceeds from the outer disk via a slow wind. Fractional wind mass loss increases with increasing disk lifetime. Significant wind mass loss likely substantially enhances the dust-to-gas mass ratio and promotes planet formation.

  17. Gridded global surface ozone metrics for atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofen, E. D.; Bowdalo, D.; Evans, M. J.; Apadula, F.; Bonasoni, P.; Cupeiro, M.; Ellul, R.; Galbally, I. E.; Girgzdiene, R.; Luppo, S.; Mimouni, M.; Nahas, A. C.; Saliba, M.; Tørseth, K.

    2016-02-01

    The concentration of ozone at the Earth's surface is measured at many locations across the globe for the purposes of air quality monitoring and atmospheric chemistry research. We have brought together all publicly available surface ozone observations from online databases from the modern era to build a consistent data set for the evaluation of chemical transport and chemistry-climate (Earth System) models for projects such as the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative and Aer-Chem-MIP. From a total data set of approximately 6600 sites and 500 million hourly observations from 1971-2015, approximately 2200 sites and 200 million hourly observations pass screening as high-quality sites in regionally representative locations that are appropriate for use in global model evaluation. There is generally good data volume since the start of air quality monitoring networks in 1990 through 2013. Ozone observations are biased heavily toward North America and Europe with sparse coverage over the rest of the globe. This data set is made available for the purposes of model evaluation as a set of gridded metrics intended to describe the distribution of ozone concentrations on monthly and annual timescales. Metrics include the moments of the distribution, percentiles, maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8), sum of means over 35 ppb (daily maximum 8-h; SOMO35), accumulated ozone exposure above a threshold of 40 ppbv (AOT40), and metrics related to air quality regulatory thresholds. Gridded data sets are stored as netCDF-4 files and are available to download from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (doi: 10.5285/08fbe63d-fa6d-4a7a-b952-5932e3ab0452). We provide recommendations to the ozone measurement community regarding improving metadata reporting to simplify ongoing and future efforts in working with ozone data from disparate networks in a consistent manner.

  18. Gridded global surface ozone metrics for atmospheric chemistry model evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sofen, E. D.; Bowdalo, D.; Evans, M. J.; Apadula, F.; Bonasoni, P.; Cupeiro, M.; Ellul, R.; Galbally, I. E.; Girgzdiene, R.; Luppo, S.; Mimouni, M.; Nahas, A. C.; Saliba, M.; Tørseth, K.; Wmo Gaw, Epa Aqs, Epa Castnet, Capmon, Naps, Airbase, Emep, Eanet Ozone Datasets, All Other Contributors To

    2015-07-01

    The concentration of ozone at the Earth's surface is measured at many locations across the globe for the purposes of air quality monitoring and atmospheric chemistry research. We have brought together all publicly available surface ozone observations from online databases from the modern era to build a consistent dataset for the evaluation of chemical transport and chemistry-climate (Earth System) models for projects such as the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative and Aer-Chem-MIP. From a total dataset of approximately 6600 sites and 500 million hourly observations from 1971-2015, approximately 2200 sites and 200 million hourly observations pass screening as high-quality sites in regional background locations that are appropriate for use in global model evaluation. There is generally good data volume since the start of air quality monitoring networks in 1990 through 2013. Ozone observations are biased heavily toward North America and Europe with sparse coverage over the rest of the globe. This dataset is made available for the purposes of model evaluation as a set of gridded metrics intended to describe the distribution of ozone concentrations on monthly and annual timescales. Metrics include the moments of the distribution, percentiles, maximum daily eight-hour average (MDA8), SOMO35, AOT40, and metrics related to air quality regulatory thresholds. Gridded datasets are stored as netCDF-4 files and are available to download from the British Atmospheric Data Centre (doi:10.5285/08fbe63d-fa6d-4a7a-b952-5932e3ab0452). We provide recommendations to the ozone measurement community regarding improving metadata reporting to simplify ongoing and future efforts in working with ozone data from disparate networks in a consistent manner.

  19. Global land-use allocation model linked to an integrated assessment model.

    PubMed

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Ito, Akihiko; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2017-02-15

    We developed a global land-use allocation model that can be linked to integrated assessment models (IAMs) with a coarser spatial resolution. Using the model, we performed a downscaling of the IAMs' regional aggregated land-use projections to obtain a spatial land-use distribution, which could subsequently be used by Earth system models for global environmental assessments of ecosystem services, food security, and climate policies. Here we describe the land-use allocation model, discuss the verification of the downscaling technique, and explain the influences of the downscaling on estimates of land-use carbon emissions. A comparison of the emissions estimated with and without downscaling suggested that the land-use downscaling would help capture the spatial distribution of carbon stock density and regional heterogeneity of carbon emissions caused by cropland and pasture land expansion.

  20. A global water supply reservoir yield model with uncertainty analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuria, Faith W.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2014-09-01

    Understanding the reliability and uncertainty associated with water supply yields derived from surface water reservoirs is central for planning purposes. Using a global dataset of monthly river discharge, we introduce a generalized model for estimating the mean and variance of water supply yield, Y, expected from a reservoir for a prespecified reliability, R, and storage capacity, S assuming a flow record of length n. The generalized storage-reliability-yield (SRY) relationships reported here have numerous water resource applications ranging from preliminary water supply investigations, to economic and climate change impact assessments. An example indicates how our generalized SRY relationship can be combined with a hydroclimatic model to determine the impact of climate change on surface reservoir water supply yields. We also document that the variability of estimates of water supply yield are invariant to characteristics of the reservoir system, including its storage capacity and reliability. Standardized metrics of the variability of water supply yields are shown to depend only on the sample size of the inflows and the statistical characteristics of the inflow series.

  1. Modeling the global positioning system signal propagation through the ionosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bassiri, S.; Hajj, G. A.

    1992-01-01

    Based on realistic modeling of the electron density of the ionosphere and using a dipole moment approximation for the Earth's magnetic field, one is able to estimate the effect of the ionosphere on the Global Positioning System (GPS) signal for a ground user. The lowest order effect, which is on the order of 0.1-100 m of group delay, is subtracted out by forming a linear combination of the dual frequencies of the GPS signal. One is left with second- and third-order effects that are estimated typically to be approximately 0-2 cm and approximately 0-2 mm at zenith, respectively, depending on the geographical location, the time of day, the time of year, the solar cycle, and the relative geometry of the magnetic field and the line of sight. Given the total electron content along a line of sight, the authors derive an approximation to the second-order term which is accurate to approximately 90 percent within the magnetic dipole moment model; this approximation can be used to reduce the second-order term to the millimeter level, thus potentially improving precise positioning in space and on the ground. The induced group delay, or phase advance, due to second- and third-order effects is examined for two ground receivers located at equatorial and mid-latitude regions tracking several GPS satellites.

  2. Modeling of Urban Heat Island at Global Scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    KC, B.; Ruth, M.

    2015-12-01

    Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the temperature difference between urban and its rural background temperature. At the local level, the choice of building materials and urban geometry are vital in determining the UHI magnitude of a city. At the city scale, economic growth, population, climate, and land use dynamics are the main drivers behind changes in UHIs. The main objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive assessment of UHI based on these "macro variables" at regional and global scale. We based our analysis on published research for Europe, North America, and Asia, reporting data for 83 cities across the globe with unique climatic, economic, and environmental conditions. Exploratory data analysis including Pearson correlation was performed to explore the relationship between UHI and PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤5 microns), PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 microns), vegetation per capita, built area, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population density and population. Additionally, dummy variables were used to capture potential influences of climate types (based on Koppen classifications) and the ways by which UHI was measured. We developed three linear regression models, one for each of the three continents (Asia, Europe, and North America) and one model for all the cities across these continents. This study provides a unique perspective for predicting UHI magnitudes at large scales based on economic activity and pollution levels of a city, which has important implications in urban planning.

  3. Global model of an iodine gridded plasma thruster

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grondein, P.; Lafleur, T.; Chabert, P.; Aanesland, A.

    2016-03-01

    Most state-of-the-art electric space propulsion systems such as gridded and Hall effect thrusters use xenon as the propellant gas. However, xenon is very rare, expensive to produce, and used in a number of competing industrial applications. Alternatives to xenon are currently being investigated, and iodine has emerged as a potential candidate. Its lower cost and larger availability, its solid state at standard temperature and pressure, its low vapour pressure and its low ionization potential make it an attractive option. In this work, we compare the performances of a gridded ion thruster operating separately with iodine and xenon, under otherwise identical conditions using a global model. The thruster discharge properties such as neutral, ion, and electron densities and electron temperature are calculated, as well as the thruster performance parameters such as thrust, specific impulse, and system efficiencies. For similar operating conditions, representative of realistic thrusters, the model predicts similar thrust levels and performances for both iodine and xenon. The thruster efficiency is however slightly higher for iodine compared with xenon, due to its lower ionization potential. This demonstrates that iodine could be a viable alternative propellant for gridded plasma thrusters.

  4. A global model of electromagnetic coupling for nutations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dumberry, Mathieu; Koot, Laurence

    2012-09-01

    Nutations are small variations in the orientation of the Earth's rotation axis in space. They are caused by the gravitational torque that the Moon, the Sun, and other planets exert on the equatorial bulge. As nutations involve differential rotations between the mantle, fluid core and inner core, the motion of each of these internal regions depends on the coupling between them. In particular, a coupling of a dissipative nature is required to match observations. One possibility is electromagnetic (EM) coupling at the inner and outer core boundaries, the focus of our study. Existing EM coupling models are based on a formulation where the perturbation variables and the equations they must satisfy are defined at local geographic points on the boundary. Here, we show how EM coupling models can be cast under a global formalism, where all variables are expanded in spherical harmonics. This formulation allows a separation of the contribution from the poloidal and toroidal parts of the EM torque, and we show that, under certain conductivity scenarios, this separation is important.

  5. Global Numerical Modeling of the Muon Collider Target

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, Samulyak; Glimm, James

    2000-11-01

    The problem of free surface instabilities is the major concern in the study of the Muon Collider target. The target is in the form of a mercury jet interacting with high energy proton beams in the presence of a strong magnetic field. Strong pressure waves caused by the target - proton beam interaction lead to strong disturbances of the jet surface and to the jet breakup into droplets. The global numerical simulation of the Muon Collider target was done by using FronTier, a compressible fluid dynamics code. FronTier is capable to work with free surfaces and, in particular, to model the propagation of free jets. The code is based on the method of front tracking, a numerical technique for solving systems of conservation laws in which the evolution of discontinuities is determined through the solution of the associated Riemann problem. To model the behavior of the real material (mercury) under the influence of proton beams a SESAME type tabulated equation of state for mercury was created in a wide temperature - density domain which includes the fluid state of mercury, the vapor state and the state above the critical point. The numerical simulation of the target evolution driven by strong pressure waves is important for the optimal target design.

  6. Global stability of the ballooning mode in a cylindrical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazur, N. G.; Fedorov, E. N.; Pilipenko, V. A.

    2013-07-01

    Ballooning disturbances in a finite-pressure plasma in a curvilinear magnetic field are described by the system of coupled equations for the Alfvén and slow magnetosonic modes. In contrast to most previous works that locally analyzed the stability of small-scale disturbances using the dispersion relationship, a global analysis outside a WKB approximation but within a simple cylindrical geometry, when magnetic field lines are circles with constant curvature, is performed in the present work. This model is relatively simple; nevertheless, it has the singularities necessary for the formation of the ballooning mode: field curvature and non-uniform thermal plasma pressure. If the disturbance finite radial extent is taken into account, the instability threshold increases as compared to a WKB approximation. The simplified model used in this work made it possible to consider the pattern of unstable disturbances at arbitrary values of the azimuthal wavenumber ( k y ). Azimuthally large-scale disturbances can also be unstable, although the increment increases with decreasing azimuthal scale and reaches saturation when the scales are of the order of the pressure nonuniformity dimension.

  7. An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: A global analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed; Eden, Jonathan; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan

    2016-04-01

    Empirical models, designed to predict land-based surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. Its performance is evaluated for surface air temperature over a set of historical hindcast experiments under a series of different prediction `modes'. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to ten years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. Small improvements in skill are found at all lead times when including future volcanic forcings in the hindcasts. It is also suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to

  8. Treatment of Solar and Thermal Radiation in Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacis, A. A.; Oinas, V.

    2015-12-01

    response to structural changes that occur in the global environment. In addition, the radiation model fulfills a diagnostic and analysis role in providing spectral information for making model performance comparisons to observational data, and for enabling quantitative attribution of radiative forcing and feedback changes.

  9. Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

    PubMed

    Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

    1998-01-01

    A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

  10. Students' Levels of Understanding Models and Modelling in Biology: Global or Aspect-Dependent?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krell, Moritz; Upmeier zu Belzen, Annette; Krüger, Dirk

    2014-01-01

    It is argued that knowledge about models is an important part of a profound understanding of Nature of Science. Consequently, researchers have developed different "levels of understanding" to analyse students', teachers', or experts' comprehension of this topic. In some approaches, "global" levels of understanding have been…

  11. Tropospheric energy cascades in a global circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brune, Sebastian; Becker, Erich

    2010-05-01

    The global horizontal kinetic energy (KE) spectrum and its budget are analyzed using results from a mechanistic GCM. The model has a standard spectral dynamical core with very high vertikal resolution up to the middle stratosphere (T330/L100). As a turbulence model we combine the Smagorinsky scheme with an energy conserving hyperdiffusion that is applied for the very smallest resolved scales. The simulation confirms a slope of the KE spectrum close to -3 in the synoptic regime where the KE is dominated by vortical modes. Towards the mesoscales the spectrum flattens and assumes a slope close to -5/3. Here divergent modes become increasingly important and even dominate the KE. Our complete analysis of the sinks and sources in the spectral KE budget reveals the overall energy fluxes through the spectrum. For the upper troposphere, the change of KE due to horizontal advection is negative for large synoptic scales. It is positive for the planetary scale, as expected, and for the mesoscales as well. This implies that the mesoscales, which include the dynamical sources of tropospheric gravity waves, are in fact sustained by the energy injection at the baroclinic scale (forward energy cascade). We find an enstrophy cascade in accordance with 2D turbulence, but zero downscaling of energy due to the vortical modes alone. In other words, the forward energy cascade in the synoptic and mesoscale regime is solely due to the divergent modes and their nonlinear interaction with the vortical modes. This picture, derived form a mechanistic model, not only lends further evidence for a generally forward energy cascade in the upper tropospheric away from the baroclinic scale. It also extends the picture proposed earlier by Tung and Orlando: The transition from a -3 to a -5/3 slope in the tropospheric macroturbulence spectrum reflects the fact, that the energy cascade due to the horizontally divergent (3D) modes is hidden behind the (2D) enstrophy cascade in the synoptic regime but

  12. The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    HARSHVARDHAN

    1991-01-01

    Reliable estimates of the components of the surface radiation budget are important in studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction, land-atmosphere interaction, ocean circulation and in the validation of radiation schemes used in climate models. The methods currently under consideration must necessarily make certain assumptions regarding both the presence of clouds and their vertical extent. Because of the uncertainties in assumed cloudiness, all these methods involve perhaps unacceptable uncertainties. Here, a theoretical framework that avoids the explicit computation of cloud fraction and the location of cloud base in estimating the surface longwave radiation is presented. Estimates of the global surface downward fluxes and the oceanic surface net upward fluxes were made for four months (April, July, October and January) in 1985 to 1986. These estimates are based on a relationship between cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface obtained from a general circulation model. The radiation code is the version used in the UCLA/GLA general circulation model (GCM). The longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as obtained from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements is used to compute the forcing at the surface by means of the GCM-derived relationship. This, along with clear-sky fluxes from the computations, yield maps of the downward longwave fluxes and net upward longwave fluxes at the surface. The calculated results are discussed and analyzed. The results are consistent with current meteorological knowledge and explainable on the basis of previous theoretical and observational works; therefore, it can be concluded that this method is applicable as one of the ways to obtain the surface longwave radiation fields from currently available satellite data.

  13. Stochastic resonance on a global atmospheric circulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Munuzuri, V.; Deza, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Kirk, E.; Lunkeit, F.

    2003-04-01

    Seeking for alternative sources of the observed climatic variability, and in the spirit of both classic (Nicolis, 1982; Benzi et al., 1982) and recent work (Ganopolski and Rahmstorg, 2002; Vélez-Belch&{acute;i} et al., 2001), we have added a space-independent, Gaussian and uncorrelated stochastic perturbation with amplitude eta, to the temperature equation of a simplified atmospheric global circulation model, the so-called PUMA (Portable University Model of the Atmosphere) (Frisius et al., 1998; Pérez-Muñuzuri et al., 2003). In the latter model, diabatic processes are parameterized by a Newtonian cooling term with typical timescale τ_c, whose reference temperature profile T_R(λ,μ,σ;t) (representing the ``equilibrium'' profile induced by solar heating) is given by T_R=overline{T}_R(λ,μ,σ)+ hat{T}_R \\cos[(2pi/Tac)t+Pac]. We show that the time averages of several forecasting magnitudes (like temperature and horizontal vorticity) at a point on the 300 hPa surface, undergo a non-monotonic behavior with regard to eta. Moreover, the normalized variance R=sqrt{-^2}/ of the interval t_p between the passage at the point of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation regions exhibits an ``anticoherence resonance'' effect, thus maximizing climatic variability for some intermediate value of eta. A theoretical explanation is advanced in terms of activated processes with competing time scales. begin{itemize} C. Nicolis, Tellus 34, 1 (1982); Benzi et al., Tellus 34, 10 (1982). A. Ganopolski and S. Rahmstorg, Phys. Rev. Lett. 88, 038501 (2002); P. Vélez-Belch&{acute;i} et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 28, 2053 (2001). T. Frisius, F. Lunkeit, K. Fraedrich and I.N. James. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 124, 1019 (1998); V. Pérez-Muñuzuri et al. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys. (submitted) (2003).

  14. Global and Regional Ecosystem Modeling: Databases of Model Drivers and Validation Measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Olson, R.J.

    2002-03-19

    Understanding global-scale ecosystem responses to changing environmental conditions is important both as a scientific question and as the basis for making policy decisions. The confidence in regional models depends on how well the field data used to develop the model represent the region of interest, how well the environmental model driving variables (e.g., vegetation type, climate, and soils associated with a site used to parameterize ecosystem models) represent the region of interest, and how well regional model predictions agree with observed data for the region. To assess the accuracy of global model forecasts of terrestrial carbon cycling, two Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI) workshops were held (December 1999 and April 2001). The workshops included 17 biogeochemical, satellite-driven, detailed process, and dynamic vegetation global model types. The approach was to run regional or global versions of the models for sites with net primary productivity (NPP) measurements (i.e., not fine-tuned for specific site conditions) and analyze the model-data differences. Extensive worldwide NPP data were assembled with model driver data, including vegetation, climate, and soils data, to perform the intercomparison. This report describes the compilation of NPP estimates for 2,523 sites and 5,164 0.5{sup o}-grid cells under the Global Primary Production Data Initiative (GPPDI) and the results of the EMDI review and outlier analysis that produced a refined set of NPP estimates and model driver data. The EMDI process resulted in 81 Class A sites, 933 Class B sites, and 3,855 Class C cells derived from the original synthesis of NPP measurements and associated driver data. Class A sites represent well-documented study sites that have complete aboveground and below ground NPP measurements. Class B sites represent more numerous ''extensive'' sites with less documentation and site-specific information available. Class C cells represent estimates of NPP for 0.5{sup o

  15. Impact of ECMWF, NCEP, and NCMRWF global model analysis on the WRF model forecast over Indian Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Prashant; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2017-01-01

    The global model analysis has significant impact on the mesoscale model forecast as global model provides initial condition (IC) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) for the mesoscale model. With this objective, four operational global model analyses prepared from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS), and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) are used daily to generate IC and LBC of the mesoscale model during 13th December 2012 to 13th January 2013. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.4, broadly used for short-range weather forecast, is adopted in this study as mesoscale model. After initial comparison of global model analyses with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, daily WRF model forecasts initialized from global model analyses are compared with in situ observations and AIRS profiles. Results demonstrated that forecasts initialized from the ECMWF analysis are closer to AIRS-retrieved profiles and in situ observations compared to other global model analyses. No major differences are occurred in the WRF model forecasts when initialized from the NCEP GDAS and GFS analyses, whereas these two analyses have different spatial resolutions and observations used for assimilation. Maximum RMSD is seen in the NCMRWF analysis-based experiments when compared with AIRS-retrieved profiles. The rainfall prediction is also improved when WRF model is initialized from the ECMWF analysis compared to the NCEP and NCMRWF analyses.

  16. Initial Results From a Non-Hydrostatic Jupiter Ionosphere-Thermosphere Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, J. M.; Bougher, S. W.; Waite, J. H.; Ridley, A. J.

    2013-12-01

    We present the first results from a newly developed 3-D global model for the Jovian Ionosphere-thermosphere system, which is called the Jupiter Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (J-GITM). We compare simulated fields with the results from previous 3-D Jupiter upper atmospheric modeling. We also explore the adaptation of this model to Saturn, emphasizing the global thermal structure calculations. In particular, we examine the role of high-latitude magnetospheric inputs (e.g., joule heating and energetic particle precipitation) on the global energy budget of the giant planets.

  17. [Mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere].

    PubMed

    Tarko, A M

    2010-01-01

    Changes in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, temperatures of the atmosphere, and parameters of land biota as a result of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, forest clearance, and soil erosion are calculated in a spatial mathematical model of the global carbon cycle in the biosphere. Restrictions on the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are deduced from the requirements of Kyoto Protocol to The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and other scenarios. An ability is revealed for the atmospheric CO2 concentration to grow fast, which arises from a number of emerging and developing countries with large population and high CO2 emission rates and which surpasses greatly the effect of growth retardation due to Kyoto Protocol. Those countries' role will become mostly apparent to the year of 2060 and later. Russia has shown to be in an exclusive position relative to other countries: ecosystems of its territory absorb more of the atmospheric carbon dioxide than does any other country, and the inductrial emissions from its territory are practically equal to the absorption by ecosystems.

  18. Improving models to predict phenological responses to global change

    SciTech Connect

    Richardson, Andrew D.

    2015-11-25

    The term phenology describes both the seasonal rhythms of plants and animals, and the study of these rhythms. Plant phenological processes, including, for example, when leaves emerge in the spring and change color in the autumn, are highly responsive to variation in weather (e.g. a warm vs. cold spring) as well as longer-term changes in climate (e.g. warming trends and changes in the timing and amount of rainfall). We conducted a study to investigate the phenological response of northern peatland communities to global change. Field work was conducted at the SPRUCE experiment in northern Minnesota, where we installed 10 digital cameras. Imagery from the cameras is being used to track shifts in plant phenology driven by elevated carbon dioxide and elevated temperature in the different SPRUCE experimental treatments. Camera imagery and derived products (“greenness”) is being posted in near-real time on a publicly available web page (http://phenocam.sr.unh.edu/webcam/gallery/). The images will provide a permanent visual record of the progression of the experiment over the next 10 years. Integrated with other measurements collected as part of the SPRUCE program, this study is providing insight into the degree to which phenology may mediate future shifts in carbon uptake and storage by peatland ecosystems. In the future, these data will be used to develop improved models of vegetation phenology, which will be tested against ground observations collected by a local collaborator.

  19. Understanding Solar Torsional Oscillations from Global Dynamo Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerrero, G.; Smolarkiewicz, P. K.; de Gouveia Dal Pino, E. M.; Kosovichev, A. G.; Mansour, N. N.

    2016-09-01

    The phenomenon of solar “torsional oscillations” (TO) represents migratory zonal flows associated with the solar cycle. These flows are observed on the solar surface and, according to helioseismology, extend through the convection zone. We study the origin of the TO using results from a global MHD simulation of the solar interior that reproduces several of the observed characteristics of the mean-flows and magnetic fields. Our results indicate that the magnetic tension (MT) in the tachocline region is a key factor for the periodic changes in the angular momentum transport that causes the TO. The torque induced by the MT at the base of the convection zone is positive at the poles and negative at the equator. A rising MT torque at higher latitudes causes the poles to speed up, whereas a declining negative MT torque at the lower latitudes causes the equator to slow-down. These changes in the zonal flows propagate through the convection zone up to the surface. Additionally, our results suggest that it is the magnetic field at the tachocline that modulates the amplitude of the surface meridional flow rather than the opposite as assumed by flux-transport dynamo models of the solar cycle.

  20. Utilization of Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) for shuttle entry

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joosten, Kent

    1987-01-01

    At high latitudes, dispersions in values of density for the middle atmosphere from the Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) are observed to be large, particularly in the winter. Trajectories have been run from 28.5 deg to 98 deg. The critical part of the atmosphere for reentry is 250,000 to 270,000 ft. 250,000 ft is the altitude where the shuttle trajectory levels out. For ascending passes the critical region occurs near the equator. For descending entries the critical region is in northern latitudes. The computed trajectory is input to the GRAM, which computes means and deviations of atmospheric parameters at each point along the trajectory. There is little latitude dispersion for the ascending passes; the strongest source of deviations is seasonal; however, very wide seasonal and latitudinal deviations are exhibited for the descending passes at all orbital inclinations. For shuttle operations the problem is control to maintain the correct entry corridor and avoid either aerodynamic skipping or excessive heat loads.

  1. Early breakup of Gondwana: constraints from global plate motion models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seton, Maria; Zahirovic, Sabin; Williams, Simon; Whittaker, Joanne; Gibbons, Ana; Muller, Dietmar; Brune, Sascha; Heine, Christian

    2015-04-01

    Supercontinent break-up and amalgamation is a fundamental Earth cycle, contributing to long-term sea-level fluctuations, species diversity and extinction events, long-term greenhouse-icehouse cycles and changes in the long-wavelength density structure of the mantle. The most recent and best-constrained example involves the fragmentation of Gondwana, starting with rifting between Africa/Madagascar and Antarctica in the Early Jurassic and ending with the separation of the Lord Howe microcontinental blocks east of Australia in the Late Cretaceous. Although the first order configuration of Gondwana within modern reconstructions appears similar to that first proposed by Wegener a century ago, recent studies utilising a wealth of new geophysical and geological data provide a much more detailed picture of relative plate motions both during rifting and subsequent seafloor spreading. We present our latest global plate motion model that includes extensive, new regional analyses. These include: South Atlantic rifting, which started at 150 Ma and propagated into cratonic Africa by 145 Ma (Heine et al., 2013); rifting and early seafloor spreading between Australia, India and Antarctica, which reconciles the fit between Broken Ridge-Kergulean Plateau and the eastern Tasman region (Whittaker et al., 2013); rifting of continental material from northeastern Gondwana and its accretion onto Eurasia and SE Asia including a new model of microcontinent formation and early seafloor spreading in the eastern Indian Ocean (Gibbons et al., 2012; 2013; in review; Williams et al., 2013; Zahirovic et al., 2014); and a new model for the isolation of Zealandia east of Australia, with rifting initiating at 100 Ma until the start of seafloor spreading in the Tasman Sea at ~85 Ma (Williams et al., in prep). Using these reconstructions within the open-source GPlates software, accompanied by a set of evolving plates and plate boundaries, we can explore the factors that govern the behavior of plate

  2. Incorporating grassland management in a global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Wang, Tao; Cozic, Anne; Lardy, Romain; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphael; Soussana, Jean-François

    2013-04-01

    Grassland is a widespread vegetation type, covering nearly one-fifth of the world's land surface (24 million km2), and playing a significant role in the global carbon (C) cycle. Most of grasslands in Europe are cultivated to feed animals, either directly by grazing or indirectly by grass harvest (cutting). A better understanding of the C fluxes from grassland ecosystems in response to climate and management requires not only field experiments but also the aid of simulation models. ORCHIDEE process-based ecosystem model designed for large-scale applications treats grasslands as being unmanaged, where C / water fluxes are only subject to atmospheric CO2 and climate changes. Our study describes how management of grasslands is included in the ORCHIDEE, and how management affects modeled grassland-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The new model, ORCHIDEE-GM (Grassland Management) is capable with a management module inspired from a grassland model (PaSim, version 5.0), of accounting for two grassland management practices (cutting and grazing). The evaluation of the results of ORCHIDEE-GM compared with those of ORCHIDEE at 11 European sites equipped with eddy covariance and biometric measurements, show that ORCHIDEE-GM can capture realistically the cut-induced seasonal variation in biometric variables (LAI: Leaf Area Index; AGB: Aboveground Biomass) and in CO2 fluxes (GPP: Gross Primary Productivity; TER: Total Ecosystem Respiration; and NEE: Net Ecosystem Exchange). But improvements at grazing sites are only marginal in ORCHIDEE-GM, which relates to the difficulty in accounting for continuous grazing disturbance and its induced complex animal-vegetation interactions. Both NEE and GPP on monthly to annual timescales can be better simulated in ORCHIDEE-GM than in ORCHIDEE without management. At some sites, the model-observation misfit in ORCHIDEE-GM is found to be more related to ill-constrained parameter values than to model structure. Additionally, ORCHIDEE-GM is able to simulate

  3. Accuracy assessment of the global ionospheric model over the Southern Ocean based on dynamic observation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Xiaowen; Xu, Huajun; Li, Zishen; Zhang, Tao; Gao, Jinyao; Shen, Zhongyan; Yang, Chunguo; Wu, Ziyin

    2017-02-01

    The global ionospheric model based on the reference stations of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) of the International GNSS Services is presently the most commonly used products of the global ionosphere. It is very important to comprehensively analyze and evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the model for the reasonable use of this kind of ionospheric product. In terms of receiver station deployment, this work is different from the traditional performance evaluation of the global ionosphere model based on observation data of ground-based static reference stations. The preliminary evaluation and analysis of the the global ionospheric model was conducted with the dynamic observation data across different latitudes over the southern oceans. The validation results showed that the accuracy of the global ionospheric model over the southern oceans is about 5 TECu, which deviates from the measured ionospheric TEC by about -0.6 TECu.

  4. Trends in 20th Century Global Rainfall Interception as Simulated by a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model: Implications for Global Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, Steve; Prentice, Colin

    2010-05-01

    In order to monitor and forecast regions of potential freshwater stress and surplus, a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the global hydrological cycle and its components is needed. Such work should lead to better constrained estimates of freshwater fluxes and facilitate the identification of regions requiring enhanced water management. The research described here aims to quantify the contribution of climate- and CO2-induced changes in the physical properties of the land surface, mediated by biological processes. Global climate change is expected to bring about substantial latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in vegetation cover. Shifts in species distribution, the potential of increased leaf area index (LAI) but also reduced stomatal conductance in response to rising concentrations of CO2, and variability in precipitation, can all influence rates and spatial variability of the interception-throughfall balance. These effects will have implications for runoff generation and the partitioning between 'green' and 'white' water fluxes. The Land Processes eXchange Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX-DGVM, a development of the LPJ model) was evaluated in terms of its interception component and used to simulate trends in global relative throughfall from 1901-2006, as this is directly relevant for runoff. We estimate that mean global annual runoff was reduced by 164 ±18 km3/year during the twentieth century as a result of biophysical changes controlling relative throughfall generation. Widespread decreases in relative throughfall of typically between 0 and -1% are evident between 1901-1953 and 1954-2006. Changes of up to

  5. Drought Duration Biases in Current Global Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moon, Heewon; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Several droughts in the recent past are characterized by their increased duration and intensity. In particular, substantially prolonged droughts have brought major societal and economic losses in certain regions, yet climate change projections of such droughts in terms of duration is subject to large uncertainties. This study analyzes the biases of drought duration in state-of-the-art global climate model (GCM) simulations from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Drought durations are defined as negative precipitation anomalies and evaluated with three observation-based datasets in the period of 1901-2010. Large spread in biases of GCMs is commonly found in all regions, with particular strong biases in North East Brazil, Africa, Northern Australia, Central America, Central and Northern Europe, Sahel and Asia. Also in most regions, the interquartile range of bias lies below 0, meaning that the GCMs tend to underestimate drought durations. Meanwhile in some regions such as Western South America, the Amazon, Sahel, West and South Africa, and Asia, considerable inconsistency among the three observation-based datasets were found. These results indicate substantial uncertainties and errors in current GCMs for simulating drought durations as well as a large spread in observation-based datasets, both of which are found to be particularly strong in those regions that are often considered to be hot spots of projected future drying. The underlying sources of these uncertainties need to be identified in further study and will be applied to constrain GCM-based drought projections under climate change.

  6. Uncertainties of Nitrogen Fixation in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steinkamp, Joerg; Werner, Christian; Weber, Bettina; Hickler, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Nitrogen is an essential nutrient for life on earth. However, most of it is in the form of dinitrogen (N2) unutilizable to life and only few organisms are able to break the triple bond, fix the nitrogen and thus make it available for cycling in the biosphere through "fixation". In most state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) including a nitrogen cycle, N fixation is simulated by the Cleveland et al. (1999) algorithm (O-CN, LPJ-GUESS, CLM), that correlates annual N fixation to evapotranspiration rates or net primary production. Nevertheless, this algorithm has two major uncertainties, which are investigated by us: 1. The algorithm is based on annual fixation rates that are then applied uniformly throughout the year. However, in nature nitrogen fixation is an expensive process, which occurs only under favorable conditions. Here we compare the annual fixation values evenly distributed over the year with daily-derived fixation values based on a modified version of the Cleveland algorithm. We postulate that in higher latitudinal regions with seasonal climate as well as in regions with a distinct dry/wet season, modeled growth is enhanced by daily derived values compared to evenly distributed values, whereas in tropical regions hardly any difference will be visible. 2. One distinguishes between symbiotic and unsymbiotic nitrogen fixation, where the first one is associated with higher plants as symbionts supplying the fixers with carbohydrates, whereas the second, unsymbiotic is performed by so-called cryptogamic covers (CC). We found that the fixation by CC is underrepresented by the Cleveland algorithm, and a correction thus leads to enhanced growth in forested regions of higher latitudes that feature substantial CC fractions. Overall, the improvements of the algorithm proposed by us are expected to better reflect the reality of nitrogen fixation and cause an increased growth of vegetation, especially in higher northern latitudes.

  7. a Global Model for Long-Range Interaction `DAMPING Functions'

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myatt, Philip Thomas; McCourt, Frederick R. W.; Le Roy, Robert J.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, `damping functions', which characterize the weakening of inverse-power-sum long-range interatomic interaction energies with increasing electron overlap, have become an increasing important component of models for diatomic molecule interaction potentials. However, a key feature of models for damping functions, their portability, has received little scrutiny. The present work set out to examine all available ab initio induction and dispersion damping function data and to attempt to devise a `global' scheme for diatomic molecule damping functions. It appears that while neutral (H, He, Li, and Ne, homonuclear and mixed) and anion (H^- with H, He and Li) species obey (approximately) one common rule, proton plus neutral (H^+ with H, He and Li) and non-proton-cation plus neutral systems (He^+ and Li^+ with H, He and Li), must each be treated separately. However, for all three cases, a version of the Douketis-Scoles-Thakkar (ionization potential)power factor is a key scaling parameter. R.J. Le Roy, C. C. Haugen, J. Tao and Hui Li, Mol. Phys. 109,435 (2011). P.J. Knowles and W.J. Meath,J. Mol. Phys. 60, 1143 (1987); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath,J. Mol. Phys. 80, 25 (1993); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath J. Chem. Phys. 179, 341 (1994); R.J. Wheatley and W.J. Meath,J. Chem. Phys. 203, 209 (1996). C. Douketis,G. Scoles, S. Marchetti, M. Zen and A. J. Thakkar, J. Chem. Phys. 76, 3057 (1982).

  8. An Empirical Cumulus Parameterization Scheme for a Global Spectral Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rajendran, K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Misra, V.; Tao, W.-K.

    2004-01-01

    Realistic vertical heating and drying profiles in a cumulus scheme is important for obtaining accurate weather forecasts. A new empirical cumulus parameterization scheme based on a procedure to improve the vertical distribution of heating and moistening over the tropics is developed. The empirical cumulus parameterization scheme (ECPS) utilizes profiles of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) based heating and moistening derived from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis. A dimension reduction technique through rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) is performed on the vertical profiles of heating (Q1) and drying (Q2) over the convective regions of the tropics, to obtain the dominant modes of variability. Analysis suggests that most of the variance associated with the observed profiles can be explained by retaining the first three modes. The ECPS then applies a statistical approach in which Q1 and Q2 are expressed as a linear combination of the first three dominant principal components which distinctly explain variance in the troposphere as a function of the prevalent large-scale dynamics. The principal component (PC) score which quantifies the contribution of each PC to the corresponding loading profile is estimated through a multiple screening regression method which yields the PC score as a function of the large-scale variables. The profiles of Q1 and Q2 thus obtained are found to match well with the observed profiles. The impact of the ECPS is investigated in a series of short range (1-3 day) prediction experiments using the Florida State University global spectral model (FSUGSM, T126L14). Comparisons between short range ECPS forecasts and those with the modified Kuo scheme show a very marked improvement in the skill in ECPS forecasts. This improvement in the forecast skill with ECPS emphasizes the importance of incorporating realistic vertical distributions of heating and drying in the model cumulus scheme. This

  9. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  10. Emerging Internationalisation Models in an Uneven Global Terrain: Findings from a Global Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maringe, F.; Foskett, N.; Woodfield, S.

    2013-01-01

    We know little about how internationalisation processes are understood, rationalised and prioritised in different parts of the world. A global survey of internationalisation in universities was undertaken at the University of Southampton to fill this gap. Its purpose was to discover how strategic leaders in universities in different parts of the…

  11. Global Similarity Accounts of Embedded-Category Designs: Tests of the Global Matching Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maguire, Angela M.; Humphreys, Michael S.; Dennis, Simon; Lee, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    This paper addresses two Global Matching predictions in embedded-category designs: the within-category choice advantage in forced-choice recognition (superior discrimination for test choices comprising a same-category distractor); and the category length effect in forced-choice and old/new recognition (a loss in discriminability with increases in…

  12. Global water resources modeling with an integrated model of the social-economic-environmental system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davies, Evan G. R.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2011-06-01

    Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.

  13. Joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics: Evaluation of constraints from global tomography models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xinguo; Holt, William E.; Ghosh, Attreyee

    2015-12-01

    With the advances in technology, seismological theory, and data acquisition, a number of high-resolution seismic tomography models have been published. However, discrepancies between tomography models often arise from different theoretical treatments of seismic wave propagation, different inversion strategies, and different data sets. Using a fixed velocity-to-density scaling and a fixed radial viscosity profile, we compute global mantle flow models associated with the different tomography models and test the impact of these for explaining surface geophysical observations (geoid, dynamic topography, stress, and strain rates). We use the joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics approach of Ghosh and Holt (2012) to compute the full lithosphere stresses, except that we use HC for the mantle circulation model, which accounts for the primary flow-coupling features associated with density-driven mantle flow. Our results show that the seismic tomography models of S40RTS and SAW642AN provide a better match with surface observables on a global scale than other models tested. Both of these tomography models have important similarities, including upwellings located in Pacific, Eastern Africa, Iceland, and mid-ocean ridges in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean and downwelling flows mainly located beneath the Andes, the Middle East, and central and Southeast Asia.

  14. Forcing a Global, Offline Land Surface Modeling System with Observation-Based Fields

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodell, Matthew; Houser, Paul R.; Jambor, U.; Gottschalck, J.; Radakovich, J.; Arsenault, K.; Meng, C.-J.; Mitchell, K. E.

    2002-01-01

    The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) drives multiple uncoupled land surface models in order to produce optimal output fields of surface states in near-real time, globally, at 1/4 degree spatial resolution. These fields are then made available for coupled atmospheric model initialization and further research. One of the unique aspects of GLDAS is its ability to ingest both modeled and observation-derived forcing for running global scale land surface models. This paper compares results of runs forced by modeled and observed precipitation and shortwave radiation fields. Differences are examined and the impact of the observations on model skill is assessed.

  15. Modeling Persistent Contrails in a Large Eddy Simulation and a Global Climate Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naiman, A. D.; Lele, S. K.; Wilkerson, J. T.; Jacobson, M. Z.

    2009-12-01

    Two models of aircraft condensation trail (contrail) evolution have been developed: a high resolution, three-dimensional Large Eddy Simulation (LES) and a simple, low-cost Subgrid Contrail Model (SCM). The LES model was used to simulate contrail development from one second to twenty minutes after emission by the passing aircraft. The LES solves the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with a Boussinesq approximation for buoyancy forces on an unstructured periodic grid. The numerical scheme uses a second-order finite volume spatial discretization and an implicit fractional-step method for time advancement. Lagrangian contrail particles grow according to a microphysical model of ice deposition and sublimation. The simulation is initialized with the wake of a commercial jet superimposed on a decaying turbulence field. The ambient atmosphere is stable and has a supersaturated relative humidity with respect to ice. Grid resolution is adjusted during the simulation, allowing higher resolution of flow structures than previous studies. We present results of a parametric study in which ambient turbulence levels, vertical wind shear, and aircraft type were varied. We find that higher levels of turbulence and shear promote mixing of aircraft exhaust with supersaturated ambient air, resulting in faster growth of ice and wider dispersion of the exhaust plume. The SCM was developed as a parameterization of contrail dynamics intended for use within a global model that examines the effect of commercial aviation on climate. The SCM provides an analytic solution to the changes in size and shape of a contrail cross-section over time due to global model grid-scale vertical wind shear and turbulence parameters. The model was derived from the physical equations of motion of a plume in a sheared, turbulent environment. Approximations based on physical reasoning and contrail observations allowed these equations to be reduced to simple ordinary differential equations in time with exact

  16. Towards a comprehensive Global Electric Circuit model: Conductivity and its variability in WACCM model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baumgaertner, Andreas J. G.; Neely, Ryan, III; Lucas, Greg; Thayer, Jeffrey

    2013-04-01

    As an important step for increasing our understanding of the global electric circuit, the AC-GCM (atmospheric chemistry general circulation model) WACCM has been extended to provide a calculation of atmospheric conductivity. This is the first time an AC-GCM is used for this purpose. Such model simulations are ideally suited for conductivity calculations and are a significant improvement to previous studies. The advancements are based on the given model data consistency as well as the possibility for controlled experiments to study factors of variability in conductvity. Most importantly, the model considers ionization from galactic cosmic rays, solar proton events and radon, and loss processes from aerosols and clouds. The aerosol representation through CARMA (a sectional aerosol microphysical model available within WACCM) provides a realistic computation of aerosol effects for the first time. A flexible module implementation allows for the use of different parameterizations and external datasets. The module can be used online or offline (1-D or 3-D) using existing model output. We present and evaluate the modelled global maps of conductivity and its variability due to the sources and sinks of ionization. This first of a kind modeling shows that aerosols can have a strong impact on conductivity especially at low latitudes.

  17. A model of CO-CH4 global transport/chemistry. I - Chemistry model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, L. K.; Kitada, T.

    1980-01-01

    A simplified chemistry model was developed to incorporate the CO-CH4 chemistry into the global transport model of these compounds. CO is important because of its effects on atmospheric chemistry and is partly responsible for controlling the hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration in the troposphere. The model includes the photodissociation rate coefficients expressed as functions of solar zenith angle and altitude, and it was applied to determine the sensitivity of the OH concentration to trace gaseous species, such as NOx, O3, and H2O. Also, the concentrations and diurnal variations of OH and HO2, and the contribution of individual reactions to OH generation and consumption were calculated.

  18. High-Latitude Filtering in a Global Grid-Point Model Using Model Normal Modes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takacs, L. L.; Navon, I. M.; Kalnay, E.

    1985-01-01

    The aim of high-latitude filtering in the vicinity of the poles is to avoid the excessively short time steps imposed on an explicit time-differencing scheme by linear stability due to fast moving inertia-gravity waves near the poles. The model normal mode expansion toward the problem of high-latitude filtering in a global shallow water model using the same philosophy as that used by Daley for the problem for large timesteps in P.E. models with explicit time integration schemes was applied.

  19. Global instability in a Sellers-type model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucarini, Valerio; Bodai, Tamas

    2015-04-01

    The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated ice-albedo feedback. The unstable solution is obtained and characterized in this paper. We find such unstable states by applying for the first time in a geophysical context the so-called edge tracking method that has been used for studying multiple coexisting states in shear flows. We examine robustness, efficiency, and accuracy properties of the edge tracking algorithm. We find that the procedure is the most efficient when taking a single bisection per cycle. Due to the strong diffusivity of the system trajectories of transient dynamics, initialized between the stable states with respect to the mean temperature, are confined to the heteroclininc trajectory, one which connects the fixed unstable and stable states, after relatively short transient times. This constraint dictates a functional relationship between observables. We characterize such a relationship between the global average temperature and a descriptor of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, the large scale temperature gradient between low and high latitudes. We find that a maximum of the temperature gradient is realized at the same value of the average temperature, about 270 K, largely independent of the strength of incoming solar radiation. We also examine the structural properties of the system defined by the equilibria depending on the solar strength. We construct new bifurcation diagrams in terms of quantities relevant for describing the thermodynamic disequilibrium, such as the temperature gradient and the material entropy production due to heat transport. We compare our results for the EBM to results for the intermediate complexity GCM PlaSim and find an interesting qualitative agreement.

  20. Singular boundary method for global gravity field modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunderlik, Robert

    2014-05-01

    The singular boundary method (SBM) and method of fundamental solutions (MFS) are meshless boundary collocation techniques that use the fundamental solution of a governing partial differential equation (e.g. the Laplace equation) as their basis functions. They have been developed to avoid singular numerical integration as well as mesh generation in the traditional boundary element method (BEM). SBM have been proposed to overcome a main drawback of MFS - its controversial fictitious boundary outside the domain. The key idea of SBM is to introduce a concept of the origin intensity factors that isolate singularities of the fundamental solution and its derivatives using some appropriate regularization techniques. Consequently, the source points can be placed directly on the real boundary and coincide with the collocation nodes. In this study we deal with SBM applied for high-resolution global gravity field modelling. The first numerical experiment presents a numerical solution to the fixed gravimetric boundary value problem. The achieved results are compared with the numerical solutions obtained by MFS or the direct BEM indicating efficiency of all methods. In the second numerical experiments, SBM is used to derive the geopotential and its first derivatives from the Tzz components of the gravity disturbing tensor observed by the GOCE satellite mission. A determination of the origin intensity factors allows to evaluate the disturbing potential and gravity disturbances directly on the Earth's surface where the source points are located. To achieve high-resolution numerical solutions, the large-scale parallel computations are performed on the cluster with 1TB of the distributed memory and an iterative elimination of far zones' contributions is applied.

  1. Research highlights of the global modeling and simulation branch for 1986-1987

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Wayman (Editor); Susskind, Joel (Editor); Pfaendtner, James (Editor); Randall, David (Editor); Atlas, Robert (Editor)

    1988-01-01

    This document provides a summary of the research conducted in the Global Modeling and Simulation Branch and highlights the most significant accomplishments in 1986 to 1987. The Branch has been the focal point for global weather and climate prediction research in the Laboratory for Atmospheres through the retrieval and use of satellite data, the development of global models and data assimilation techniques, the simulation of future observing systems, and the performance of atmospheric diagnostic studies.

  2. The GED4GEM project: development of a Global Exposure Database for the Global Earthquake Model initiative

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gamba, P.; Cavalca, D.; Jaiswal, K.S.; Huyck, C.; Crowley, H.

    2012-01-01

    In order to quantify earthquake risk of any selected region or a country of the world within the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) framework (www.globalquakemodel.org/), a systematic compilation of building inventory and population exposure is indispensable. Through the consortium of leading institutions and by engaging the domain-experts from multiple countries, the GED4GEM project has been working towards the development of a first comprehensive publicly available Global Exposure Database (GED). This geospatial exposure database will eventually facilitate global earthquake risk and loss estimation through GEM’s OpenQuake platform. This paper provides an overview of the GED concepts, aims, datasets, and inference methodology, as well as the current implementation scheme, status and way forward.

  3. A New Nwp Model For The Met Office - I Global Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, D. R.; Milton, S. F.; Greed, G. T.; Culverwell, I. D.

    In spring 2002 the Met Office are planning to update the formulation of the Uni- fied Model (Cullen, 1993) used for global and mesoscale NWP. The formulation changes include both a new dynamical core for the model and a new package of parametrizations. The current dynamics is a split-explicit scheme consisting of a forward-backward scheme for the adjustment steps and a Heun scheme for advec- tion. This is being replaced by a non-hydrostatic model with a semi-implicit, semi- Lagrangian formulation. There are also major changes to the radiation scheme (Ed- wards and Slingo, 1996) and the boundary layer scheme, which allows non-local mixing in unstable regimes (Lock et al 1999). The formulation also includes a new cloud microphysics scheme with prognostic ice (Wilson and Ballard, 1999) and a new GLOBE orography dataset. The convection and gravity wave drag schemes have also been completely reformulated with the former including a new parametrization for shallow convection and the latter including a flow blocking scheme. A comprehensive set of trials of these changes have been carried out and the per- formance of the new global model will be compared to that of the current opera- tional global NWP model. In particular the new model shows improved prediction of both extratropical and tropical cyclones, and a reduction in some long standing sys- tematic errors along with a significant reduction in numerical noise. As well as the main NWP model other configurations of the model exist; these include a climate ver- sion which is still under development (HADGEM), a portable version, an idealised physics/dynamical core version and a single column version.

  4. A Parallel Icosahedral, Higher Order Discontinuous Galerkin, Global Shallow Water Model: Global Ocean Tides and Aquaplanet Benchmarks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salehipour, H.; Stuhne, G.; Peltier, W. R.

    2012-12-01

    The development of models of the ocean tides with higher resolution near the coastlines and courser mesh offshore, has been required due to the significant impacts of coastline configuration and bathymetry (associated with sea level rise) on the amplitude and phase of tidal constituents, not only under present conditions but also in the deep past [Griffiths and Peltier GRL 2008, Griffiths and Peltier AMS 2009, Hill et al. JGR 2011]. A global tidal model with enhanced resolution at the poles has been developed by Griffiths and Peltier [2008, 2009], which, although capable of highly resolving polar ocean tides , is based upon a standard structured Arakawa C grid and hence is not capable of resolving coastlines locally. Furthermore the use of a nested modelling approach, although it may enable local spatial refinement [Hill et al. 2011], nevertheless suffers from its inherent dependence on the availability of a global tidal model with necessarily low spatial resolution to provide the open boundary conditions required for the local high resolution model. On the other hand, an unstructured triangulation of the global domain provides a standalone framework that may be employed to study highly resolved regions without relying on secondary models. The first step in the development of the structure we are employing was described in Stuhne and Peltier [Ocean Modeling, 2009]. In further extending this modelling structure we are employing a new discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization of the governing equations in order to provide very high order of accuracy while also ensuring that momentum transport is locally conserved [Giraldo et al. JCP 2002]. After validating the 2D shallow water model with several test suites appropriate to aquaplanets [Williamson et al. JCP 1992, Galewsky et al. Tellus 2004, Nair and Lauritzen JCP 2010], the governing equations are extended to include the influence of internal tide drag in the deep ocean as well as the drag in shallow marginal seas

  5. The GISS model of the global atmosphere. [Goddard Institute for Space Studies numerical model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Somerville, R. C. J.; Stone, P. H.; Halem, M.; Hansen, J. E.; Hogan, J. S.; Druyan, L. M.; Quirk, W. J.; Russell, G.; Lacis, A. A.; Tenenbaum, J.

    1974-01-01

    A description and numerical results are presented for a global atmospheric circulation model developed at the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The model version described is a 9-level primitive-equation model in sigma coordinates. It includes a realistic distribution of continents, oceans and topography. Detailed calculations of energy transfer by solar and terrestrial radiation make use of cloud and water vapor fields calculated by the model. The model hydrologic cycle includes two precipitation mechanisms: large-scale supersaturation and a parameterization of subgrid-scale cumulus convection. Results are presented both from a comparison of the 13th to the 43rd days (January) of one integration with climatological statistics, and from five short-range forecasting experiments. In the extended integration, the near-equilibrium January-mean model atmosphere exhibits an energy cycle in good agreement with observational estimates, together with generally realistic zonal mean fields of winds, temperature, humidity, transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation, and cloud cover.

  6. MOZART, a global chemical transport model for ozone and related chemical tracers: 1. Model description

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, G. P.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Walters, S.; Rasch, P. J.; Müller, J.-F.; Granier, C.; Tie, X. X.

    1998-11-01

    We present a new global three-dimensional chemical-transport model (called MOZART) developed in the framework of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) and aimed at studying the distribution and budget of tropospheric ozone and its precursors. The model, developed with a horizontal resolution of 2.8° in longitude and latitude, includes 25 levels in the vertical between the Earth's surface and an upper boundary located at approximately 35 km altitude. In its present configuration the model calculates the global distribution of 56 chemical constituents with a timestep of 20 min, and accounts for surface emission and deposition, large-scale advective transport, subscale convective and boundary layer exchanges, chemical and photochemical transformations, as well as wet scavenging. Transport is simulated "off line" from CCM with dynamical variables provided every 3 hours from preestablished history tapes. Advection is calculated using the semi-Lagrangian transport scheme [Rasch and Williamson, 1990] developed for the MATCH model of Rasch et al. [1997]. Convective and boundary layer transports are expressed according to Hack [1994] and Holtslag and Boville [1993], respectively. A detailed evaluation of the model results is provided in a companion paper [Hauglustaine et al., this issue]. An analysis of the spatial and temporal variability in the chemical fields predicted by the model suggests that regional events such as summertime ozone episodes in polluted areas can be simulated by MOZART.

  7. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible un...

  8. Nuclear Fuel Leasing, Recycling and proliferation: Modeling a Global View

    SciTech Connect

    Crozat, M P; Choi, J; Reis, V H; Hill, R

    2004-03-10

    would extend the spirit of President Eisenhower's ''Atoms for Peace'' vision toward solving some of the major international problems of the 21st Century--global climate change and the creation of a peaceful and stable world political regime. Needless to say, this is a very complex problem, encompassing all of the issues involved in nuclear power--economics, proliferation, waste management and safety--and a myriad of public and diplomatic policy issues as well. To gain a better understanding of the leasing concept we have built an interactive system dynamics model, Multinuke, using STELLA software. (STELLA is particularly useful for this type of analysis because of its capability to create user-friendly interfaces.) Multinuke simulates two separate nuclear entities and possible interactions between them, and therefore can be used to investigate the fuel-leasing concept. In this paper we will apply the results of Multinuke to a few simplified scenarios to help understand how fuel leasing might affect the future global growth of nuclear power, proliferation concern and spent fuel management.

  9. A THREE-DIMENSIONAL MODEL ASSESSMENT OF THE GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION OF HEXACHLOROBENZENE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The distributions of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the global environment have been studied typically with box/fugacity models with simplified treatments of atmospheric transport processes1. Such models are incapable of simulating the complex three-dimensional mechanis...

  10. The use of GRACE satellite data to validate the global hydrological cycle as simulated by a global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boening, Carmen; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wiese, David; Roberts, Malcolm; Schiemann, Reinhard; Mizielinski, Matthew; Watkins, Michael

    2015-04-01

    This study investigates the use of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data to validate the global hydrological cycle as simulated by an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM), particularly the transport of water from the ocean to the land and vice-versa. Until GRACE, no other observational data were available for such a robust assessment. Usually, moisture transport is calculated by using the water balance equations (e.g. Precipitation-Evaporation), or by using reanalysis data, which are known to have major issues related to the hydrological cycle. By comparing the decade-long record of Earth's gravity field variations measured by GRACE with the terrestrial water storage simulated by GCMs, we can compare the amplitude of the variability in water transport at inter-annual to decadal time scales at global and regional scales. This is an innovative approach to assess GCMs and understand the processes underlying changes in the water cycle. It is by improving our understanding of the mechanisms involved in the hydrological cycle that we will be able to build confidence in model simulations of the evolution of the hydrological cycle with climate change. We make use of the UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) campaign, a traceable hierarchy of global atmospheric simulations (based on the Met Office Unified Model, GA3 formulation), with mesh sizes ranging from 130 km to 25 km, for which five-member ensembles of 27-year, atmosphere-only integrations are available, using present-day forcing. We show here the ability of this climate model, at any resolution, to simulate the inter-annual variability of terrestrial water storage, compared to GRACE. We particularly find that the model is able to capture the regional distribution of changes in terrestrial water transport during El Nino Southern Oscillation events, implying its ability to import more or less water over land during a La Nina or an El

  11. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  12. Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

    2013-12-01

    In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced

  13. Global Ocean Circulation Modeling with an Isopycnic Coordinate Model. Final Report for May 1, 1998 - April 30, 2002

    SciTech Connect

    Bleck, R.

    2004-05-19

    The overall aim of this project was to continue development of a global version of the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) with the intent of turning it into a full-fledged oceanic component of an earth system model.

  14. Real-Time Global Nonlinear Aerodynamic Modeling for Learn-To-Fly

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2016-01-01

    Flight testing and modeling techniques were developed to accurately identify global nonlinear aerodynamic models for aircraft in real time. The techniques were developed and demonstrated during flight testing of a remotely-piloted subscale propeller-driven fixed-wing aircraft using flight test maneuvers designed to simulate a Learn-To-Fly scenario. Prediction testing was used to evaluate the quality of the global models identified in real time. The real-time global nonlinear aerodynamic modeling algorithm will be integrated and further tested with learning adaptive control and guidance for NASA Learn-To-Fly concept flight demonstrations.

  15. Situation model updating in young and older adults: Global versus incremental mechanisms.

    PubMed

    Bailey, Heather R; Zacks, Jeffrey M

    2015-06-01

    Readers construct mental models of situations described by text. Activity in narrative text is dynamic, so readers must frequently update their situation models when dimensions of the situation change. Updating can be incremental, such that a change leads to updating just the dimension that changed, or global, such that the entire model is updated. Here, we asked whether older and young adults make differential use of incremental and global updating. Participants read narratives containing changes in characters and spatial location and responded to recognition probes throughout the texts. Responses were slower when probes followed a change, suggesting that situation models were updated at changes. When either dimension changed, responses to probes for both dimensions were slowed; this provides evidence for global updating. Moreover, older adults showed stronger evidence of global updating than did young adults. One possibility is that older adults perform more global updating to offset reduced ability to manipulate information in working memory.

  16. Situation Model Updating in Young and Older Adults: Global versus Incremental Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Bailey, Heather R.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.

    2015-01-01

    Readers construct mental models of situations described by text. Activity in narrative text is dynamic, so readers must frequently update their situation models when dimensions of the situation change. Updating can be incremental, such that a change leads to updating just the dimension that changed, or global, such that the entire model is updated. Here, we asked whether older and young adults make differential use of incremental and global updating. Participants read narratives containing changes in characters and spatial location and responded to recognition probes throughout the texts. Responses were slower when probes followed a change, suggesting that situation models were updated at changes. When either dimension changed, responses to probes for both dimensions were slowed; this provides evidence for global updating. Moreover, older adults showed stronger evidence of global updating than did young adults. One possibility is that older adults perform more global updating to offset reduced ability to manipulate information in working memory. PMID:25938248

  17. MODELING THE IMPACT OF AIR POLLUTION ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) and aerosols have major effects on climate and are the two air pollutants of most concern in the developed world. O3 is a major greenhouse gas (GHG) and light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC) also contribute to global warm...

  18. Model for Infusing a Global Perspective into the Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thorne, Bonnie Baker, Comp.; And Others

    Global education is an approach to learning that transcends national boundaries and involves the interconnection of cultural, ecological, economic, political and technological systems. This perspective promotes multicultural sensitivity that enables young people to see more clearly their own responsibilities and opportunities in today's world.…

  19. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  20. Aerosol Properties and Processes: A Path from Field and Laboratory Measurements to Global Climate Models

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, Steven J.; Schwartz, Stephen E.

    2007-07-01

    Aerosols exert a substantial influence on climate and climate change through a variety of complex mechanisms. Consequently there is a need to represent aerosol effects in global climate models, and models have begun to include representations of these effects. However, the treatment of aerosols in current global climate models is presently highly simplified, omitting many important processes and feedbacks. Consequently there is need for substantial improvement. Here we describe the U. S. Department of Energy strategy for improving the treatment of aerosol properties and processes in global climate models. The strategy begins with a foundation of field and laboratory measurements that provide the basis for modules of selected aerosol properties and processes. These modules are then integrated in regional aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with field measurements. Issues of scale are then addressed so that the modules can be applied to global aerosol models, which are evaluated by comparing with global satellite measurements. Finally, the validated set of modules are applied to global climate models for multi-century simulations. This strategy can be applied to successive generations of global climate models.

  1. Simulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide variability with a global coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian transport model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koyama, Y.; Maksyutov, S.; Mukai, H.; Thoning, K.; Tans, P.

    2010-11-01

    This study assesses the advantages of using a coupled atmospheric-tracer transport model, comprising a global Eulerian model and a global Lagrangian particle dispersion model, for reproducibility of tracer gas variation affected by near field around observation sites. The ability to resolve variability in atmospheric composition on an hourly time scale and a spatial scale of several kilometers would be beneficial for analyzing data from continuous ground-based monitoring and upcoming space-based observations. The coupled model yields increased horizontal resolution of transport and fluxes, and has been tested in regional-scale studies of atmospheric chemistry. By applying the Lagrangian component to the global domain, we extend this approach to the global scale, thereby enabling global inverse modeling and data assimilation. To validate the coupled model, we compare model-simulated CO2 concentrations with continuous observations at two sites operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA and one site operated by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. As the purpose of this study is limited to demonstration of the new modeling approach, we select a small subset of 3 sites to highlight use of the model in various geographical areas. To explore the capability of the coupled model in simulating synoptic-scale meteorological phenomena, we calculate the correlation coefficients and variance ratios between deseasonalized model-simulated and observed CO2 concentrations. Compared with the Eulerian model alone, the coupled model yields improved agreement between modeled and observed CO2 concentrations.

  2. The global reference atmospheric model, mod 2 (with two scale perturbation model)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Hargraves, W. R.

    1976-01-01

    The Global Reference Atmospheric Model was improved to produce more realistic simulations of vertical profiles of atmospheric parameters. A revised two scale random perturbation model using perturbation magnitudes which are adjusted to conform to constraints imposed by the perfect gas law and the hydrostatic condition is described. The two scale perturbation model produces appropriately correlated (horizontally and vertically) small scale and large scale perturbations. These stochastically simulated perturbations are representative of the magnitudes and wavelengths of perturbations produced by tides and planetary scale waves (large scale) and turbulence and gravity waves (small scale). Other new features of the model are: (1) a second order geostrophic wind relation for use at low latitudes which does not "blow up" at low latitudes as the ordinary geostrophic relation does; and (2) revised quasi-biennial amplitudes and phases and revised stationary perturbations, based on data through 1972.

  3. The NASA/MSFC global reference atmospheric model: MOD 3 (with spherical harmonic wind model)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Justus, C. G.; Fletcher, G. R.; Gramling, F. E.; Pace, W. B.

    1980-01-01

    Improvements to the global reference atmospheric model are described. The basic model includes monthly mean values of pressure, density, temperature, and geostrophic winds, as well as quasi-biennial and small and large scale random perturbations. A spherical harmonic wind model for the 25 to 90 km height range is included. Below 25 km and above 90 km, the GRAM program uses the geostrophic wind equations and pressure data to compute the mean wind. In the altitudes where the geostrophic wind relations are used, an interpolation scheme is employed for estimating winds at low latitudes where the geostrophic wind relations being to mesh down. Several sample wind profiles are given, as computed by the spherical harmonic model. User and programmer manuals are presented.

  4. Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in northern Morocco.

    PubMed

    Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Drapeau, Laurent; Letellier, Christophe

    2014-06-01

    The dynamics underlying cereal crops in the northern region of Morocco is investigated using a global modelling technique applied to a vegetation index time series derived from satellite measurements, namely, the normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2008. Two three-dimensional chaotic global models of reduced size (14-term and 15-term models) are obtained. The model validation is performed by comparing their horizons of predictability with those provided in previous studies. The attractors produced by the two global models have a complex foliated structure-evidenced in a Poincaré section-rending a topological characterization difficult to perform. Thus, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension is estimated from the synthetic data produced by our global models. Our results suggest that cereal crops in the northern Morocco are governed by a weakly dissipative three-dimensional chaotic dynamics.

  5. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) version 3 products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, M.; Okuto, E.; Kang, Y.; Opiyo, E.; Ahmed, M.

    2015-06-01

    Earth observation based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Version 3 (NDVI3g) and (2) Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) Version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v) and Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI3v). We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1) prediction of the Leaf Area Index (LAI) used in light-use efficiency modeling, (2) estimation of vegetation climatology in Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer models, and (3) trend analysis of the magnitude and phenology of vegetation productivity. Experiment one, unlike previous inter-comparison studies, was performed with a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents. Overall, the two records showed a high level of agreement both in direction and magnitude on a monthly basis, though VIP values were higher and more variable and showed lower correlations and higher error with in situ LAI. The records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. The two records were also highly consistent in terms of trend direction/magnitude, showing a 30+ year increase (decrease) in NDVI over much of the globe (tropical rainforests). The two records were less consistent in terms of timing due to the poor correlation of the records during start and end of growing season.

  6. Future global water resources with respect to climate change and water withdrawals as estimated by a dynamic global vegetation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, S. J.; Foster, P. N.; Prentice, I. C.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryThe Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation model, which incorporates process-based representations of the terrestrial biosphere, is used to simulate the effects of climatic change (via pattern-scaled temperature change scenarios based on six general circulation models) on global and large catchment freshwater resources towards the end of the 21st century. Socio-economic change is addressed by using water withdrawal estimates from the WaterGAP hydrological model. Climate change and population growth together increase water stress in many regions, particularly between 10°N and 50°N, for 2070-2099 relative to 1961-1990. Changes in runoff are most highly correlated with precipitation in 75% of the large global catchments tested. However, in all catchments the runoff ratio increases between these periods. This increase depends on vegetation playing a role: through physiological responses to enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations and also regionally through decreased fractional plant coverage. With increasing temperature, global mean annual precipitation is shown to increase in many regions, including some which are densely populated (e.g. the Yangtze catchment). This increase leads to a slight alleviation in the numbers of people residing in highly water-stressed environments (relative to lower-end temperature projections), providing associated changes to the timings of runoff allow the water resource to be usable to the same extent. This research predominantly focuses on climate changes scaled to an increase of 2 °C by 2050. It suggests that variability in the magnitude of runoff outputs among GCM forcings for this degree of warming requires further constraint in order to better inform regional water resources policy.

  7. Perspectives on open access high resolution digital elevation models to produce global flood hazard layers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sampson, Christopher; Smith, Andrew; Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeffrey; Trigg, Mark

    2015-12-01

    Global flood hazard models have recently become a reality thanks to the release of open access global digital elevation models, the development of simplified and highly efficient flow algorithms, and the steady increase in computational power. In this commentary we argue that although the availability of open access global terrain data has been critical in enabling the development of such models, the relatively poor resolution and precision of these data now limit significantly our ability to estimate flood inundation and risk for the majority of the planet's surface. The difficulty of deriving an accurate 'bare-earth' terrain model due to the interaction of vegetation and urban structures with the satellite-based remote sensors means that global terrain data are often poorest in the areas where people, property (and thus vulnerability) are most concentrated. Furthermore, the current generation of open access global terrain models are over a decade old and many large floodplains, particularly those in developing countries, have undergone significant change in this time. There is therefore a pressing need for a new generation of high resolution and high vertical precision open access global digital elevation models to allow significantly improved global flood hazard models to be developed.

  8. Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

  9. Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2014-09-01

    Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle. It is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are essential for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including future atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but these models must first be evaluated in terms of their skill in recreating present day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales, by comparing carbonate budget outputs with independent estimates. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an observation-based dataset for the model evaluation. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically-developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). None of the four models correlated with independent rate estimates of whole reef calcification. The temperature-only based approach was the only model output to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modeling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence coral cover, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef carbonate budgets is severely

  10. Evaluation of coral reef carbonate production models at a global scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, N. S.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2015-03-01

    Calcification by coral reef communities is estimated to account for half of all carbonate produced in shallow water environments and more than 25% of the total carbonate buried in marine sediments globally. Production of calcium carbonate by coral reefs is therefore an important component of the global carbon cycle; it is also threatened by future global warming and other global change pressures. Numerical models of reefal carbonate production are needed for understanding how carbonate deposition responds to environmental conditions including atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the past and into the future. However, before any projections can be made, the basic test is to establish model skill in recreating present-day calcification rates. Here we evaluate four published model descriptions of reef carbonate production in terms of their predictive power, at both local and global scales. We also compile available global data on reef calcification to produce an independent observation-based data set for the model evaluation of carbonate budget outputs. The four calcification models are based on functions sensitive to combinations of light availability, aragonite saturation (Ωa) and temperature and were implemented within a specifically developed global framework, the Global Reef Accretion Model (GRAM). No model was able to reproduce independent rate estimates of whole-reef calcification, and the output from the temperature-only based approach was the only model to significantly correlate with coral-calcification rate observations. The absence of any predictive power for whole reef systems, even when consistent at the scale of individual corals, points to the overriding importance of coral cover estimates in the calculations. Our work highlights the need for an ecosystem modelling approach, accounting for population dynamics in terms of mortality and recruitment and hence calcifier abundance, in estimating global reef carbonate budgets. In addition, validation of reef

  11. Computational Modeling in Support of Global Eradication of Infectious Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eckhoff, Philip A.; Gates, William H., III; Myhrvold, Nathan P.; Wood, Lowell

    2014-07-01

    The past century has seen tremendous advances in global health, with broad reductions in the worldwide burden of infectious disease. Science has fundamentally advanced our understanding of disease etiology and medicine has provided remarkable capabilities to diagnose many syndromes and to target the causative pathogen. The advent and proliferation of antibiotics has dramatically lowered the impact of infections that were once near certain death sentences. Vaccination has provided a route to protect each new birth cohort from pathogens which once killed a substantial fraction of each generation, and in some countries, vaccination coverage has been raised to sufficiently high levels to fully interrupt transmission of major pathogens. There were 7 million deaths among children under 5 years of age in 2010, substantially down from decades past, and even more so in terms of deaths per capita per year of populations at risk. However, the annual rate globally is 1,070 per 100,000, while in developed countries the rate is only 137 per 100,000 (IHME GBD, 2010). Therefore, bringing global rates down to rates already achieved in developed countries represents the huge gains currently available via means such as vaccination and access to modern health care...

  12. Global stability and attractivity of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Xiaodan; Liu, Lijun; Zhou, Wenshu

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we study the global stability and attractivity of the endemic equilibrium for a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. The model was introduced in Li (2015). We prove that the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if α (a parameter of this model) is sufficiently large, and is globally attractive if the transmission rate λ satisfies λ/λc ∈(1 , 2 ] , where λc is the epidemic threshold. Some numerical experiments are also presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

  13. Lyapunov functions and global stability for SIR and SEIR models with age-dependent susceptibility.

    PubMed

    Melnik, Andrey V; Korobeinikov, Andrei

    2013-04-01

    We consider global asymptotic properties for the SIR and SEIR age structured models for infectious diseases where the susceptibility depends on the age. Using the direct Lyapunov method with Volterra type Lyapunov functions, we establish conditions for the global stability of a unique endemic steady state and the infection-free steady state.

  14. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  15. Modeling of the Earth's gravity field using the New Global Earth Model (NEWGEM)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kim, Yeong E.; Braswell, W. Danny

    1989-01-01

    Traditionally, the global gravity field was described by representations based on the spherical harmonics (SH) expansion of the geopotential. The SH expansion coefficients were determined by fitting the Earth's gravity data as measured by many different methods including the use of artificial satellites. As gravity data have accumulated with increasingly better accuracies, more of the higher order SH expansion coefficients were determined. The SH representation is useful for describing the gravity field exterior to the Earth but is theoretically invalid on the Earth's surface and in the Earth's interior. A new global Earth model (NEWGEM) (KIM, 1987 and 1988a) was recently proposed to provide a unified description of the Earth's gravity field inside, on, and outside the Earth's surface using the Earth's mass density profile as deduced from seismic studies, elevation and bathymetric information, and local and global gravity data. Using NEWGEM, it is possible to determine the constraints on the mass distribution of the Earth imposed by gravity, topography, and seismic data. NEWGEM is useful in investigating a variety of geophysical phenomena. It is currently being utilized to develop a geophysical interpretation of Kaula's rule. The zeroth order NEWGEM is being used to numerically integrate spherical harmonic expansion coefficients and simultaneously determine the contribution of each layer in the model to a given coefficient. The numerically determined SH expansion coefficients are also being used to test the validity of SH expansions at the surface of the Earth by comparing the resulting SH expansion gravity model with exact calculations of the gravity at the Earth's surface.

  16. A Global Operator Approach to Wess-Zumino-Novikov-Witten models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlichenmaier, Martin

    2007-11-01

    We present a global operator approach to Wess-Zumino-Novikov models for compact Riemann surfaces of arbitrary genus g with N marked points. The approach is based on the multipoint Krichever-Novikov algebras of global meromorphic functions and vector fields, and the global algebras of affine type and their representations. Using the global Sugawara construction and the identification of a certain subspace of the vector field algebra with the tangent space to the moduli space of the geometric data, the Knizhnik-Zamalodchikov connection is defined. For fermionic representations it defines a projectively flat connection on the vector bundle of conformal blocks. The presented work is joint work with Oleg Sheinman.

  17. A study of global atmospheric budget and distribution of acetone using global atmospheric model STOCHEM-CRI

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, M. A. H.; Cooke, M. C.; Utembe, S. R.; Archibald, A. T.; Maxwell, P.; Morris, W. C.; Xiao, P.; Derwent, R. G.; Jenkin, M. E.; Percival, C. J.; Walsh, R. C.; Young, T. D. S.; Simmonds, P. G.; Nickless, G.; O'Doherty, S.; Shallcross, D. E.

    2015-07-01

    The impact of including a more detailed VOC oxidation scheme (CRI v2-R5) with a multi-generational approach for simulating tropospheric acetone is investigated using a 3-D global model, STOCHEM-CRI. The CRI v2-R5 mechanism contains photochemical production of acetone from monoterpenes which account for 64% (46.8 Tg/yr) of the global acetone sources in STOCHEM-CRI. Both photolysis and oxidation by OH in the troposphere contributes equally (42%, each) and dry deposition contributes 16% of the atmospheric sinks of acetone. The tropospheric life-time and the global burden of acetone are found to be 18 days and 3.5 Tg, respectively, these values being close to those reported in the study of Jacob et al. (2002). A dataset of aircraft campaign measurements are used to evaluate the inclusion of acetone formation from monoterpenes in the CRI v2-R5 mechanism used in STOCHEM-CRI. The overall comparison between measurements and models show that the parameterised approach in STOCHEM-NAM (no acetone formation from monoterpenes) underpredicts the mixing ratios of acetone in the atmosphere. However, using a detailed monoterpene oxidation mechanism forming acetone has brought the STOCHEM-CRI into closer agreement with measurements with an improvement in the vertical simulation of acetone. The annual mean surface distribution of acetone simulated by the STOCHEM-CRI shows a peak over forested regions where there are large biogenic emissions and high levels of photochemical activity. Year-long observations of acetone and methanol at the Mace Head research station in Ireland are compared with the simulated acetone and methanol produced by the STOCHEM-CRI and found to produce good overall agreement between model and measurements. The seasonal variation of model and measured acetone levels at Mace Head, California, New Hampshire and Minnesota show peaks in summer and dips in winter, suggesting that photochemical production may have the strongest effect on its seasonal trend.

  18. Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

  19. Assimilation of TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimeter Data into a Global Ocean Circulation Model: Are the Results Any Good?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fukumori, I.; Fu, L. L.; Chao, Y.

    1998-01-01

    The feasibility of assimilating satellite altimetry data into a global ocean general ocean general circulation model is studied. Three years of TOPEX/POSEIDON data is analyzed using a global, three-dimensional, nonlinear primitive equation model.

  20. Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) Model: A New Method for Estimating the Global Dietary Supply of Nutrients.

    PubMed

    Smith, Matthew R; Micha, Renata; Golden, Christopher D; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Myers, Samuel S

    2016-01-01

    Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model--the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model--to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961-2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent

  1. Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

    2015-04-01

    Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture

  2. Prospects for improving the representation of coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holt, Jason; Hyder, Patrick; Ashworth, Mike; Harle, James; Hewitt, Helene T.; Liu, Hedong; New, Adrian L.; Pickles, Stephen; Porter, Andrew; Popova, Ekaterina; Icarus Allen, J.; Siddorn, John; Wood, Richard

    2017-02-01

    Accurately representing coastal and shelf seas in global ocean models represents one of the grand challenges of Earth system science. They are regions of immense societal importance through the goods and services they provide, hazards they pose and their role in global-scale processes and cycles, e.g. carbon fluxes and dense water formation. However, they are poorly represented in the current generation of global ocean models. In this contribution, we aim to briefly characterise the problem, and then to identify the important physical processes, and their scales, needed to address this issue in the context of the options available to resolve these scales globally and the evolving computational landscape.We find barotropic and topographic scales are well resolved by the current state-of-the-art model resolutions, e.g. nominal 1/12°, and still reasonably well resolved at 1/4°; here, the focus is on process representation. We identify tides, vertical coordinates, river inflows and mixing schemes as four areas where modelling approaches can readily be transferred from regional to global modelling with substantial benefit. In terms of finer-scale processes, we find that a 1/12° global model resolves the first baroclinic Rossby radius for only ˜ 8 % of regions < 500 m deep, but this increases to ˜ 70 % for a 1/72° model, so resolving scales globally requires substantially finer resolution than the current state of the art.We quantify the benefit of improved resolution and process representation using 1/12° global- and basin-scale northern North Atlantic nucleus for a European model of the ocean (NEMO) simulations; the latter includes tides and a k-ɛ vertical mixing scheme. These are compared with global stratification observations and 19 models from CMIP5. In terms of correlation and basin-wide rms error, the high-resolution models outperform all these CMIP5 models. The model with tides shows improved seasonal cycles compared to the high-resolution model without

  3. Global stability of Gompertz model of three competing populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Yumei; Wang, Wendi; Lu, Zhengyi

    2007-10-01

    The model of three competitive populations with Gompertz growth is studied. The periodic solutions are ruled out by generalized Dulac criteria. On the basis of the analysis, we obtain conditions that ensure the asymptotic behavior of the model is simple.

  4. Modeling of magnetic reconnection in the magnetotail using global MHD simulation with an effective resistivity model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Den, M.; Horiuchi, R.; Fujita, S.; Tanaka, T.

    2011-12-01

    Magnetic reconnection is considered to play an important role in space phenomena such as substorm in the Earth's magnetosphere. Tanaka and Fujita reproduced substorm evolution process by numerical simulation with the global MHD code [1]. In the MHD framework, the dissipation model is introduced for modeling of the kinetic effects. They found that the normalized reconnection viscosity, one of the dissipation model employed there, gave a large effect for the dipolarization, central phenomenon in the substorm development process, though that viscosity was assumed to be a constant parameter. It is well known that magnetic reconnection is controlled by microscopic kinetic mechanism. Frozen-in condition is broken due to particle kinetic effects and collisionless reconnection is triggered when current sheet is compressed as thin as ion kinetic scales under the influence of external driving flow [2, 3]. Horiuchi and his collaborators showed that reconnection electric field generated by microscopic physics evolves inside ion meandering scale so as to balance the flux inflow rate at the inflow boundary, which is controlled by macroscopic physics [2]. That is, effective resistivity generated through this process can be expressed by balance equation between micro and macro physics. In this paper, we perform substorm simulation by using the global MHD code developed by Tanaka [3] with this effective resistivity instead of the empirical resistivity model. We obtain the AE indices from simulation data, in which substorm onset can be seen clearly, and investigate the relationship between the substorm development and the effective resistivity model. [1] T. Tanaka, A, Nakamizo, A. Yoshikawa, S. Fujita, H. Shinagawa, H. Shimazu, T. Kikuchi, and K. K. Hashimoto, J. Geophys. Res. 115 (2010) A05220,doi:10.1029/2009JA014676. [2] W. Pei, R. Horiuchi, and T. Sato, Physics of Plasmas,Vol. 8 (2001), pp. 3251-3257. [3] A. Ishizawa, and R. Horiuchi, Phys. Rev. Lett., Vol. 95, 045003 (2005). [4

  5. SEP modeling and forecasts based on the ENLIL global heliospheric model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mays, M. Leila; Luhmann, Janet; Odstrcil, Dusan; Bain, Hazel; Li, Yan; Kuznetsova, Maria

    2015-04-01

    Understanding gradual SEP events (often driven by CMEs) well enough to forecast their properties at a given location requires a realistic picture of the global background solar wind through which the shocks and SEPs propagate. The global 3D MHD WSA-ENLIL model (Odstrcil et al., 2004) provides a time-dependent background heliospheric description, into which a cone-shaped CME can be inserted. It is clear from our preliminary runs that the CMEs sometimes generate multiple shocks, some of which fade while others merge and/or strengthen as they propagate. In order to completely characterize the SEP profiles observed at various locations with the aid of these simulations it is essential to include all of the relevant CMEs and allow enough time for the events to propagate and interact. From ENLIL v2.8 simulations one can extract the magnetic topologies of observer-connected magnetic field lines and all plasma and shock properties along those field lines. ENLIL "likelihood/all-clear" forecasting maps provide expected intensity, timing/duration of events at locations throughout the heliosphere with "possible SEP affected areas" color-coded based on shock strength. Accurate descriptions of the heliosphere, and hence modeled SEPs, are achieved by ENLIL only when the background solar wind is well-reproduced and CME parameters are accurate. ENLIL derived information is also useful to drive SEP models such as the Solar Energetic Particle Model (SEPMOD) which calculates the time series of ~10-100 MeV protons at a specific observer location using a passive test particle population (Luhmann et al. 2007, 2010). In this presentation we demonstrate SEP event modeling which utilizes routine ENLIL runs important for space weather forecasting and research. Making SEP models available for research and operational users is one of Community Coordinated Modeling Center's (CCMC) top priorities. Heliospheric model outputs are a necessary ingredient for SEP simulations. The CCMC is making steps

  6. Second International Symposium on the Biogeochemistry of Model Estuaries: Estuarine processes in global change. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Windom, H.L.

    1991-12-31

    This report summarizes estuary events discussed at the symposium on biogeochemistry. Topics include; sedimentation, salinity, inputs and outputs of the estuary, effects of global change, and the need for effective sampling and modeling of estuaries.

  7. A Noachian "Greenhouse": Earth Models for a Global Hydrologic Budget of the Mars Northern Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, M. A.; Parker, T. J.; Jewell, P. W.; Komatsu, G.; Ormö, J.

    2012-05-01

    Prominent eustatic highs in Earth history provide models for comparisons to a Mars ocean. A Noachian "greenhouse" assisted by a high global water budget could preserve an extensive stratigraphic record in combination with shoreline evidence.

  8. Global vegetation model diversity and the risks of climate-driven ecosystem shifts

    SciTech Connect

    Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin

    2013-11-08

    Climate change is modifying global biogeochemical cycles, and is expected to exert increasingly large effects in the future. How these changes will in turn affect and interact with the structure and function of particular ecosystems is unclear, however, both because of scientific uncertainties and the very diversity of global vegetation models in use. Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Warszawski et al. (1) aggregate results from a group of models, across a range of emissions scenarios and climate data, to investigate these risks. Although the models frequently disagree about which specific regions are at risk, they consistently predict a greater chance of ecosystem restructuring with more warming; this risk roughly doubles between 2 and 3 °C increases in global mean temperature. The innovative work of Warszawski et al. represents an important first step towards fully consistent multi-model, multi-scenario assessments of the future risks to global ecosystems.

  9. Global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models in LASG/IAP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yongqiang, Yu; Xuehong, Zhang; Yufu, Guo

    2004-06-01

    Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). From the original flux anomaly-coupling model developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling model, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.

  10. Global assessment of Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) and Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) version 3 products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, M.; Okuto, E.; Kang, Y.; Opiyo, E.; Ahmed, M.

    2016-02-01

    Earth observation-based long-term global vegetation index products are used by scientists from a wide range of disciplines concerned with global change. Inter-comparison studies are commonly performed to keep the user community informed on the consistency and accuracy of such records as they evolve. In this study, we compared two new records: (1) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) normalized difference vegetation index version 3 (NDVI3g) and (2) Vegetation Index and Phenology Lab (VIP) version 3 NDVI (NDVI3v) and enhanced vegetation index 2 (EVI3v). We evaluated the two records via three experiments that addressed the primary use of such records in global change research: (1) leaf area index (LAI), (2) vegetation climatology, and (3) trend analysis of the magnitude and timing of vegetation productivity. Unlike previous global studies, a unique Landsat 30 m spatial resolution and in situ LAI database for major crop types on five continents was used to evaluate the performance of not only NDVI3g and NDVI3v but also EVI3v. The performance of NDVI3v and EVI3v was worse than NDVI3g using the in situ data, which was attributed to the fusion of GIMMS and MODIS data in the VIP record. EVI3v has the potential to contribute biophysical information beyond NDVI3g and NDVI3v to global change studies, but we caution its use due to the poor performance of EVI3v in this study. Overall, the records were most consistent at northern latitudes during the primary growing season and southern latitudes and the tropics throughout much of the year, while the records were less consistent at northern latitudes during green-up and senescence, and in the great deserts of the world throughout much of the year. These patterns led to general agreement (disagreement) between trends in the magnitude (timing) of NDVI over the study period. Bias in inter-calibration of the VIP record at northernmost latitudes was suspected to contribute most to these discrepancies.

  11. Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyamoto, K.

    2005-12-01

    I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.

  12. Disturbance Wind Model (DWM07): Representing geospace storm effects with a global empirical thermospheric wind model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmert, John

    Neutral winds are a key component of the ionosphere-thermosphere system, and characterizing their systematic response to geospace storm events is essential for interpreting the response of other IT components and for space weather applications. We present a climatological global empirical model, DWM07, of storm-induced disturbance winds in the upper thermosphere. DWM07 is the storm-time component of the provisional Horizontal Wind Model (HWM07), and represents average changes in wind patterns relative to a quiet-time baseline of Kp ¡ 3. The model is based on extensive UARS/WINDII and ground-based FPI optical measurements, as well as in situ mass spectrometer measurements by DE2/WATS. The model disturbance winds depend on Quasi-Dipole magnetic latitude and local time, and Kp. We present results from DWM07 and comparisons with its constituent data sets, which are in good mutual agreement despite differences in seasonal, longitudinal and altitudinal sampling. We highlight important aspects of the model's development and its integration into HWM07, and outline improvements planned for the model.

  13. The Development and Validation of a New Land Surface Model for Regional and Global Climate Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lynch-Stieglitz, Marc

    1995-11-01

    A new land-surface scheme intended for use in mesoscale and global climate models has been developed and validated. The ground scheme consists of 6 soil layers. Diffusion and a modified tipping bucket model govern heat and water flow respectively. A 3 layer snow model has been incorporated into a modified BEST vegetation scheme. TOPMODEL equations and Digital Elevation Model data are used to generate baseflow which supports lowland saturated zones. Soil moisture heterogeneity represented by saturated lowlands subsequently impacts watershed evapotranspiration, the partitioning of surface fluxes, and the development of the storm hydrograph. Five years of meteorological and hydrological data from the Sleepers river watershed located in the eastern highlands of Vermont where winter snow cover is significant were then used to drive and validate the new scheme. Site validation data were sufficient to evaluate model performance with regard to various aspects of the watershed water balance, including snowpack growth/ablation, the spring snowmelt hydrograph, storm hydrographs, and the seasonal development of watershed evapotranspiration and soil moisture. By including topographic effects, not only are the main spring hydrographs and individual storm hydrographs adequately resolved, but the mechanisms generating runoff are consistent with current views of hydrologic processes. The seasonal movement of the mean water table depth and the saturated area of the watershed are consistent with site data and the overall model hydroclimatology, including the surface fluxes, seems reasonable.

  14. Toward Seamless Weather-Climate Prediction with a Global Cloud Resolving Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-01-14

    Organized moist convections in the tropical atmosphere have their origins at space scale of less than 10 km, and they play a key role in the initiation...such a global high resolution model that has a proper dynamic core and physics packages and is capable of representing realistically convection and...OBJECTIVE We aim to develop a new global model framework with the goal of reducing the uncertainty in moist convective processes. The Geophysical

  15. Interpretation of Lidar and Satellite Data Sets Using a Global Photochemical Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zenker, Thomas; Chyba, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.

  16. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodeker, G. E.; Hassler, B.; Young, P. J.; Portmann, R. W.

    2013-02-01

    High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These ''Tier 0'' ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km) and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~ 1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa). The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N + 1-th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa) was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different ''Tier 1'' databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not treat stratospheric

  17. A vertically resolved, global, gap-free ozone database for assessing or constraining global climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bodeker, G. E.; Hassler, B.; Young, P. J.; Portmann, R. W.

    2012-10-01

    High vertical resolution ozone measurements from eight different satellite-based instruments have been merged with data from the global ozonesonde network to calculate monthly mean ozone values in 5° latitude zones. These "Tier 0" ozone number densities and ozone mixing ratios are provided on 70 altitude levels (1 to 70 km) and on 70 pressure levels spaced ~1 km apart (878.4 hPa to 0.046 hPa). The Tier 0 data are sparse and do not cover the entire globe or altitude range. To provide a gap-free database, a least squares regression model is fitted to the Tier 0 data and then evaluated globally. The regression model fit coefficients are expanded in Legendre polynomials to account for latitudinal structure, and in Fourier series to account for seasonality. Regression model fit coefficient patterns, which are two dimensional fields indexed by latitude and month of the year, from the N-th vertical level serve as an initial guess for the fit at the N+1th vertical level. The initial guess field for the first fit level (20 km/58.2 hPa) was derived by applying the regression model to total column ozone fields. Perturbations away from the initial guess are captured through the Legendre and Fourier expansions. By applying a single fit at each level, and using the approach of allowing the regression fits to change only slightly from one level to the next, the regression is less sensitive to measurement anomalies at individual stations or to individual satellite-based instruments. Particular attention is paid to ensuring that the low ozone abundances in the polar regions are captured. By summing different combinations of contributions from different regression model basis functions, four different "Tier 1" databases have been compiled for different intended uses. This database is suitable for assessing ozone fields from chemistry-climate model simulations or for providing the ozone boundary conditions for global climate model simulations that do not treat stratospheric

  18. Global trend analysis of surface CO simulated using the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model, EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Lelieveld, Jos

    2013-04-01

    Carbon monoxide (CO) is an important trace gas in tropospheric chemistry. It directly influences the concentration of tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH), and therefore regulates the lifetimes of various tropospheric trace gases. Since anthropogenic activity produces about 60% of the annual global emission of the tropospheric CO, temporal trend analysis of surface CO is needed to understand the increasing (decreasing) influence of humans on the cleansing capacity of the atmosphere. In this study, the global trend of surface CO from 2001 to 2010 was estimated using the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy for Atmospheric Chemistry) model. The simulation is based on the emission scenario based on RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). The global EMAC simulations of monthly surface CO are evaluated with monthly MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) observations (i.e. MOP03TM), and the spatial correlations range from 0.87 to 0.97. The simulated trends are compared with the data from a global surface CO monitoring network, the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG), which includes also the NOAA/CMDL (Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Cooperative Air Sampling Network. Over the United States and Western Europe, the significant decreases of surface CO are estimated at -49.7±2.7 and -38.6±2.7 ppbv per decade. In contrast, the surface CO increased by +12.4±10.2 and +7.2±3.7 ppbv per decade over South America and South Africa, respectively.

  19. Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

    2017-01-01

    Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

  20. What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

    2015-12-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

  1. Rating global magnetosphere model simulations through statistical data-model comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, A. J.; De Zeeuw, D. L.; Rastätter, L.

    2016-10-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) was created in 2000 to allow researchers to remotely run simulations and explore the results through online tools. Since that time, over 10,000 simulations have been conducted at CCMC through their runs-on-request service. Many of those simulations have been event studies using global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the magnetosphere. All of these simulations are available to the general public to explore and utilize. Many of these simulations have had virtual satellites flown through the model to extract the simulation results at the satellite location as a function of time. This study used 662 of these magnetospheric simulations, with a total of 2503 satellite traces, to statistically compare the magnetic field simulated by models to the satellite data. Ratings for each satellite trace were created by comparing the root-mean-square error of the trace with all of the other traces for the given satellite and magnetic field component. The 1-5 ratings, with 5 being the bes