Unifying viral genetics and human transportation data to predict the global transmission dynamics of human influenza H3N2.

PubMed

Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Bedford, Trevor; Faria, Nuno; Bielejec, Filip; Baele, Guy; Russell, Colin A; Smith, Derek J; Pybus, Oliver G; Brockmann, Dirk; Suchard, Marc A

2014-02-01

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

PubMed

Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

2014-06-14

Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease. Copyright © 2014 Meason, Paterson. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Tracing information flow on a global scale using Internet chain-letter data

PubMed Central

Liben-Nowell, David; Kleinberg, Jon

2008-01-01

Although information, news, and opinions continuously circulate in the worldwide social network, the actual mechanics of how any single piece of information spreads on a global scale have been a mystery. Here, we trace such information-spreading processes at a person-by-person level using methods to reconstruct the propagation of massively circulated Internet chain letters. We find that rather than fanning out widely, reaching many people in very few steps according to “small-world” principles, the progress of these chain letters proceeds in a narrow but very deep tree-like pattern, continuing for several hundred steps. This suggests a new and more complex picture for the spread of information through a social network. We describe a probabilistic model based on network clustering and asynchronous response times that produces trees with this characteristic structure on social-network data. PMID:18353985

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

PubMed Central

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-01-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies. PMID:22822425

Collective behavior in the spatial spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros K.; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernán A.

2012-06-01

Obesity prevalence is increasing in many countries at alarming levels. A difficulty in the conception of policies to reverse these trends is the identification of the drivers behind the obesity epidemics. Here, we implement a spatial spreading analysis to investigate whether obesity shows spatial correlations, revealing the effect of collective and global factors acting above individual choices. We find a regularity in the spatial fluctuations of their prevalence revealed by a pattern of scale-free long-range correlations. The fluctuations are anomalous, deviating in a fundamental way from the weaker correlations found in the underlying population distribution indicating the presence of collective behavior, i.e., individual habits may have negligible influence in shaping the patterns of spreading. Interestingly, we find the same scale-free correlations in economic activities associated with food production. These results motivate future interventions to investigate the causality of this relation providing guidance for the implementation of preventive health policies.

Symbiosis limits establishment of legumes outside their native range at a global scale

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Anna K.; Dinnage, Russell; Barrett, Luke G.; Prober, Suzanne M.; Thrall, Peter H.

2017-01-01

Microbial symbiosis is integral to plant growth and reproduction, but its contribution to global patterns of plant distribution is unknown. Legumes (Fabaceae) are a diverse and widely distributed plant family largely dependent on symbiosis with nitrogen-fixing rhizobia, which are acquired from soil after germination. This dependency is predicted to limit establishment in new geographic areas, owing to a disruption of compatible host-symbiont associations. Here we compare non-native establishment patterns of symbiotic and non-symbiotic legumes across over 3,500 species, covering multiple independent gains and losses of rhizobial symbiosis. We find that symbiotic legume species have spread to fewer non-native regions compared to non-symbiotic legumes, providing strong support for the hypothesis that lack of suitable symbionts or environmental conditions required for effective nitrogen-fixation are driving these global introduction patterns. These results highlight the importance of mutualisms in predicting non-native species establishment and the potential impacts of microbial biogeography on global plant distributions. PMID:28387250

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Lattice model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes.

PubMed

Fierro, Annalisa; Liccardo, Antonella

2013-01-01

Individual behavioral response to the spreading of an epidemic plays a crucial role in the progression of the epidemic itself. The risk perception induces individuals to adopt a protective behavior, as for instance reducing their social contacts, adopting more restrictive hygienic measures or undergoing prophylaxis procedures. In this paper, starting with a previously developed lattice-gas SIR model, we construct a coupled behavior-disease model for influenza spreading with spontaneous behavioral changes. The focus is on self-initiated behavioral changes that alter the susceptibility to the disease, without altering the contact patterns among individuals. Three different mechanisms of awareness spreading are analyzed: the local spreading due to the presence in the neighborhood of infective individuals; the global spreading due to the news published by the mass media and to educational campaigns implemented at institutional level; the local spreading occurring through the "thought contagion" among aware and unaware individuals. The peculiarity of the present approach is that the awareness spreading model is calibrated on available data on awareness and concern of the population about the risk of contagion. In particular, the model is validated against the A(H1N1) epidemic outbreak in Italy during the 2009/2010 season, by making use of the awareness data gathered by the behavioral risk factor surveillance system (PASSI). We find that, increasing the accordance between the simulated awareness spreading and the PASSI data on risk perception, the agreement between simulated and experimental epidemiological data improves as well. Furthermore, we show that, within our model, the primary mechanism to reproduce a realistic evolution of the awareness during an epidemic, is the one due to globally available information. This result highlights how crucial is the role of mass media and educational campaigns in influencing the epidemic spreading of infectious diseases.

Liquidity crisis detection: An application of log-periodic power law structures to default prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Denz, Cornelia

2013-09-01

We employ the log-periodic power law (LPPL) to analyze the late-2000 financial crisis from the perspective of critical phenomena. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether LPPL structures in the development of credit default swap (CDS) spreads can be used for default classification. Based on the different triggers of Bear Stearns’ near bankruptcy during the late-2000 financial crisis and Ford’s insolvency in 2009, this study provides a quantitative description of the mechanism behind bank runs. We apply the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) positive feedback model to explain the rise of financial institutions’ CDS spreads during the global financial crisis 2007-2009. This investigation is based on CDS spreads of 40 major banks over the period from June 2007 to April 2009 which includes a significant CDS spread increase. The qualitative data analysis indicates that the CDS spread variations have followed LPPL patterns during the global financial crisis. Furthermore, the univariate classification performances of seven LPPL parameters as default indicators are measured by Mann-Whitney U tests. The present study supports the hypothesis that discrete scale-invariance governs the dynamics of financial markets and suggests the application of new and fast updateable default indicators to capture the buildup of long-range correlations between creditors.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-06-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading.

Local cascades induced global contagion: How heterogeneous thresholds, exogenous effects, and unconcerned behaviour govern online adoption spreading

PubMed Central

Karsai, Márton; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Kikas, Riivo; Kaski, Kimmo; Kertész, János

2016-01-01

Adoption of innovations, products or online services is commonly interpreted as a spreading process driven to large extent by social influence and conditioned by the needs and capacities of individuals. To model this process one usually introduces behavioural threshold mechanisms, which can give rise to the evolution of global cascades if the system satisfies a set of conditions. However, these models do not address temporal aspects of the emerging cascades, which in real systems may evolve through various pathways ranging from slow to rapid patterns. Here we fill this gap through the analysis and modelling of product adoption in the world’s largest voice over internet service, the social network of Skype. We provide empirical evidence about the heterogeneous distribution of fractional behavioural thresholds, which appears to be independent of the degree of adopting egos. We show that the structure of real-world adoption clusters is radically different from previous theoretical expectations, since vulnerable adoptions—induced by a single adopting neighbour—appear to be important only locally, while spontaneous adopters arriving at a constant rate and the involvement of unconcerned individuals govern the global emergence of social spreading. PMID:27272744

Neuronal and Astrocytic Monoacylglycerol Lipase Limit the Spread of Endocannabinoid Signaling in the Cerebellum.

PubMed

Chen, Yao; Liu, Xiaojie; Vickstrom, Casey R; Liu, Michelle J; Zhao, Li; Viader, Andreu; Cravatt, Benjamin F; Liu, Qing-Song

2016-01-01

Endocannabinoids are diffusible lipophilic molecules that may spread to neighboring synapses. Monoacylglycerol lipase (MAGL) is the principal enzyme that degrades the endocannabinoid 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG). Using knock-out mice in which MAGL is deleted globally or selectively in neurons and astrocytes, we investigated the extent to which neuronal and astrocytic MAGL limit the spread of 2-AG-mediated retrograde synaptic depression in cerebellar slices. A brief tetanic stimulation of parallel fibers in the molecular layer induced synaptically evoked suppression of excitation (SSE) in Purkinje cells, and both neuronal and astrocytic MAGL contribute to the termination of this form of endocannabinoid-mediated synaptic depression. The spread of SSE among Purkinje cells occurred only after global knock-out of MAGL or pharmacological blockade of either MAGL or glutamate uptake, but no spread was detected following neuron- or astrocyte-specific deletion of MAGL. The spread of endocannabinoid signaling was also influenced by the spatial pattern of synaptic stimulation, because it did not occur at spatially dispersed parallel fiber synapses induced by stimulating the granular layer. The tetanic stimulation of parallel fibers did not induce endocannabinoid-mediated synaptic suppression in Golgi cells even after disruption of MAGL and glutamate uptake, suggesting that heightened release of 2-AG by Purkinje cells does not spread the retrograde signal to parallel fibers that innervate Golgi cells. These results suggest that both neuronal and astrocytic MAGL limit the spatial diffusion of 2-AG and confer synapse-specificity of endocannabinoid signaling.

Exercise contagion in a global social network.

PubMed

Aral, Sinan; Nicolaides, Christos

2017-04-18

We leveraged exogenous variation in weather patterns across geographies to identify social contagion in exercise behaviours across a global social network. We estimated these contagion effects by combining daily global weather data, which creates exogenous variation in running among friends, with data on the network ties and daily exercise patterns of ∼1.1M individuals who ran over 350M km in a global social network over 5 years. Here we show that exercise is socially contagious and that its contagiousness varies with the relative activity of and gender relationships between friends. Less active runners influence more active runners, but not the reverse. Both men and women influence men, while only women influence other women. While the Embeddedness and Structural Diversity theories of social contagion explain the influence effects we observe, the Complex Contagion theory does not. These results suggest interventions that account for social contagion will spread behaviour change more effectively.

Wet climate and transportation routes accelerate spread of human plague

PubMed Central

Xu, Lei; Stige, Leif Chr.; Kausrud, Kyrre Linné; Ben Ari, Tamara; Wang, Shuchun; Fang, Xiye; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Qiyong; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

2014-01-01

Currently, large-scale transmissions of infectious diseases are becoming more closely associated with accelerated globalization and climate change, but quantitative analyses are still rare. By using an extensive dataset consisting of date and location of cases for the third plague pandemic from 1772 to 1964 in China and a novel method (nearest neighbour approach) which deals with both short- and long-distance transmissions, we found the presence of major roads, rivers and coastline accelerated the spread of plague and shaped the transmission patterns. We found that plague spread velocity was positively associated with wet conditions (measured by an index of drought and flood events) in China, probably due to flood-driven transmission by people or rodents. Our study provides new insights on transmission patterns and possible mechanisms behind variability in transmission speed, with implications for prevention and control measures. The methodology may also be applicable to studies of disease dynamics or species movement in other systems. PMID:24523275

The Adolescents Overview with Healthy Sexual Behavior in the Risky Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Djannah, Sitti Nur

2017-01-01

Teens today have experienced a shift in morality, thought and behavior patterns because they are influenced by foreign cultures. This is due to lack of progress, especially in the field of transport and telecommunications that are spreading globally at youth culture. Negative attitudes towards adolescent health, such as sexual activity also tend…

Information spread of emergency events: path searching on social networks.

PubMed

Dai, Weihui; Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan; Dai, Yonghui

2014-01-01

Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning.

Global equivalent magnetization of the oceanic lithosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dyment, J.; Choi, Y.; Hamoudi, M.; Lesur, V.; Thebault, E.

2015-11-01

As a by-product of the construction of a new World Digital Magnetic Anomaly Map over oceanic areas, we use an original approach based on the global forward modeling of seafloor spreading magnetic anomalies and their comparison to the available marine magnetic data to derive the first map of the equivalent magnetization over the World's ocean. This map reveals consistent patterns related to the age of the oceanic lithosphere, the spreading rate at which it was formed, and the presence of mantle thermal anomalies which affects seafloor spreading and the resulting lithosphere. As for the age, the equivalent magnetization decreases significantly during the first 10-15 Myr after its formation, probably due to the alteration of crustal magnetic minerals under pervasive hydrothermal alteration, then increases regularly between 20 and 70 Ma, reflecting variations in the field strength or source effects such as the acquisition of a secondary magnetization. As for the spreading rate, the equivalent magnetization is twice as strong in areas formed at fast rate than in those formed at slow rate, with a threshold at ∼40 km/Myr, in agreement with an independent global analysis of the amplitude of Anomaly 25. This result, combined with those from the study of the anomalous skewness of marine magnetic anomalies, allows building a unified model for the magnetic structure of normal oceanic lithosphere as a function of spreading rate. Finally, specific areas affected by thermal mantle anomalies at the time of their formation exhibit peculiar equivalent magnetization signatures, such as the cold Australian-Antarctic Discordance, marked by a lower magnetization, and several hotspots, marked by a high magnetization.

Information spreading dynamics in hypernetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suo, Qi; Guo, Jin-Li; Shen, Ai-Zhong

2018-04-01

Contact pattern and spreading strategy fundamentally influence the spread of information. Current mathematical methods largely assume that contacts between individuals are fixed by networks. In fact, individuals are affected by all his/her neighbors in different social relationships. Here, we develop a mathematical approach to depict the information spreading process in hypernetworks. Each individual is viewed as a node, and each social relationship containing the individual is viewed as a hyperedge. Based on SIS epidemic model, we construct two spreading models. One model is based on global transmission, corresponding to RP strategy. The other is based on local transmission, corresponding to CP strategy. These models can degenerate into complex network models with a special parameter. Thus hypernetwork models extend the traditional models and are more realistic. Further, we discuss the impact of parameters including structure parameters of hypernetwork, spreading rate, recovering rate as well as information seed on the models. Propagation time and density of informed nodes can reveal the overall trend of information dissemination. Comparing these two models, we find out that there is no spreading threshold in RP, while there exists a spreading threshold in CP. The RP strategy induces a broader and faster information spreading process under the same parameters.

Global biogeography of human infectious diseases.

PubMed

Murray, Kris A; Preston, Nicholas; Allen, Toph; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Hosseini, Parviez R; Daszak, Peter

2015-10-13

The distributions of most infectious agents causing disease in humans are poorly resolved or unknown. However, poorly known and unknown agents contribute to the global burden of disease and will underlie many future disease risks. Existing patterns of infectious disease co-occurrence could thus play a critical role in resolving or anticipating current and future disease threats. We analyzed the global occurrence patterns of 187 human infectious diseases across 225 countries and seven epidemiological classes (human-specific, zoonotic, vector-borne, non-vector-borne, bacterial, viral, and parasitic) to show that human infectious diseases exhibit distinct spatial grouping patterns at a global scale. We demonstrate, using outbreaks of Ebola virus as a test case, that this spatial structuring provides an untapped source of prior information that could be used to tighten the focus of a range of health-related research and management activities at early stages or in data-poor settings, including disease surveillance, outbreak responses, or optimizing pathogen discovery. In examining the correlates of these spatial patterns, among a range of geographic, epidemiological, environmental, and social factors, mammalian biodiversity was the strongest predictor of infectious disease co-occurrence overall and for six of the seven disease classes examined, giving rise to a striking congruence between global pathogeographic and "Wallacean" zoogeographic patterns. This clear biogeographic signal suggests that infectious disease assemblages remain fundamentally constrained in their distributions by ecological barriers to dispersal or establishment, despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Pathogeography thus provides an overarching context in which other factors promoting infectious disease emergence and spread are set.

Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herger, Nadja; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Knutti, Reto

2015-05-01

Pattern scaling is a simple way to produce climate projections beyond the scenarios run with expensive global climate models (GCMs). The simplest technique has known limitations and assumes that a spatial climate anomaly pattern obtained from a GCM can be scaled by the global mean temperature (GMT) anomaly. We propose alternatives and assess their skills and limitations. One approach which avoids scaling is to consider a period in a different scenario with the same GMT change. It is attractive as it provides patterns of any temporal resolution that are consistent across variables, and it does not distort variability. Second, we extend the traditional approach with a land-sea contrast term, which provides the largest improvements over the traditional technique. When interpolating between known bounding scenarios, the proposed methods significantly improve the accuracy of the pattern scaled scenario with little computational cost. The remaining errors are much smaller than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model spread.

Information Spread of Emergency Events: Path Searching on Social Networks

PubMed Central

Hu, Hongzhi; Wu, Tunan

2014-01-01

Emergency has attracted global attentions of government and the public, and it will easily trigger a series of serious social problems if it is not supervised effectively in the dissemination process. In the Internet world, people communicate with each other and form various virtual communities based on social networks, which lead to a complex and fast information spread pattern of emergency events. This paper collects Internet data based on data acquisition and topic detection technology, analyzes the process of information spread on social networks, describes the diffusions and impacts of that information from the perspective of random graph, and finally seeks the key paths through an improved IBF algorithm. Application cases have shown that this algorithm can search the shortest spread paths efficiently, which may help us to guide and control the information dissemination of emergency events on early warning. PMID:24600323

The Role of Oceanic Transform Faults in Seafloor Spreading: A Global Perspective From Seismic Anisotropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eakin, Caroline M.; Rychert, Catherine A.; Harmon, Nicholas

2018-02-01

Mantle anisotropy beneath mid-ocean ridges and oceanic transforms is key to our understanding of seafloor spreading and underlying dynamics of divergent plate boundaries. Observations are sparse, however, given the remoteness of the oceans and the difficulties of seismic instrumentation. To overcome this, we utilize the global distribution of seismicity along transform faults to measure shear wave splitting of over 550 direct S phases recorded at 56 carefully selected seismic stations worldwide. Applying this source-side splitting technique allows for characterization of the upper mantle seismic anisotropy, and therefore the pattern of mantle flow, directly beneath seismically active transform faults. The majority of the results (60%) return nulls (no splitting), while the non-null measurements display clear azimuthal dependency. This is best simply explained by anisotropy with a near vertical symmetry axis, consistent with mantle upwelling beneath oceanic transforms as suggested by numerical models. It appears therefore that the long-term stability of seafloor spreading may be associated with widespread mantle upwelling beneath the transforms creating warm and weak faults that localize strain to the plate boundary.

1831: the map that launched the idea of global health.

PubMed

Koch, Tom

2014-08-01

Today we take for granted the idea of global health, of disease as an international event. Increasingly, we assume as well that the international spread of disease can be traced to human travel patterns as well as to recurring environmental conditions. Perversely, the idea of ‘global health’ and its inverse, global disease, owes little to the three-dimensional imaging of the planet and almost everything to the two-dimensional plane of the map. Here the idea of global disease is traced from its beginnings in the 18th century to its 19th-century introduction in maps of the first cholera pandemic. This global perspective, and the responsibilities it promoted among civil officials, can be seen in modern studies of cancer, influenza and other conditions with both environmental foundations and international presence.

Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans

PubMed Central

Curtis, Andrew J

2008-01-01

Background An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Results Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level) of investigation. Conclusion Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in turn might mean traditional quarantine measures should be re-evaluated. PMID:18721469

Three-dimensional visualization of cultural clusters in the 1878 yellow fever epidemic of New Orleans.

PubMed

Curtis, Andrew J

2008-08-22

An epidemic may exhibit different spatial patterns with a change in geographic scale, with each scale having different conduits and impediments to disease spread. Mapping disease at each of these scales often reveals different cluster patterns. This paper will consider this change of geographic scale in an analysis of yellow fever deaths for New Orleans in 1878. Global clustering for the whole city, will be followed by a focus on the French Quarter, then clusters of that area, and finally street-level patterns of a single cluster. The three-dimensional visualization capabilities of a GIS will be used as part of a cluster creation process that incorporates physical buildings in calculating mortality-to-mortality distance. Including nativity of the deceased will also capture cultural connection. Twenty-two yellow fever clusters were identified for the French Quarter. These generally mirror the results of other global cluster and density surfaces created for the entire epidemic in New Orleans. However, the addition of building-distance, and disease specific time frame between deaths reveal that disease spread contains a cultural component. Same nativity mortality clusters emerge in a similar time frame irrespective of proximity. Italian nativity mortalities were far more densely grouped than any of the other cohorts. A final examination of mortalities for one of the nativity clusters reveals that further sub-division is present, and that this pattern would only be revealed at this scale (street level) of investigation. Disease spread in an epidemic is complex resulting from a combination of geographic distance, geographic distance with specific connection to the built environment, disease-specific time frame between deaths, impediments such as herd immunity, and social or cultural connection. This research has shown that the importance of cultural connection may be more important than simple proximity, which in turn might mean traditional quarantine measures should be re-evaluated.

Multiple dispersal vectors drive range expansion in an invasive marine species.

PubMed

Richardson, Mark F; Sherman, Craig D H; Lee, Randall S; Bott, Nathan J; Hirst, Alastair J

2016-10-01

The establishment and subsequent spread of invasive species is widely recognized as one of the most threatening processes contributing to global biodiversity loss. This is especially true for marine and estuarine ecosystems, which have experienced significant increases in the number of invasive species with the increase in global maritime trade. Understanding the rate and mechanisms of range expansion is therefore of significant interest to ecologists and conservation managers alike. Using a combination of population genetic surveys, environmental DNA (eDNA) plankton sampling and hydrodynamic modelling, we examined the patterns of introduction of the predatory Northern Pacific seastar (Asterias amurensis) and pathways of secondary spread within southeast Australia. Genetic surveys across the invasive range reveal some genetic divergence between the two main invasive regions and no evidence of ongoing gene flow, a pattern that is consistent with the establishment of the second invasive region via a human-mediated translocation event. In contrast, hydrodynamic modelling combined with eDNA plankton sampling demonstrated that the establishment of range expansion populations within a region is consistent with natural larval dispersal and recruitment. Our results suggest that both anthropogenic and natural dispersal vectors have played an important role in the range expansion of this species in Australia. The multiple modes of spread combined with high levels of fecundity and a long larval duration in A. amurensis suggests it is likely to continue its range expansion and significantly impact Australian marine ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis.

PubMed

Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S; Mniszewski, Susan M; Del Valle, Sara Y; Hyman, James M

2014-12-01

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule's regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity's regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis

PubMed Central

Hickmann, Kyle S.; Mniszewski, Susan M.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Hyman, James M.

2014-01-01

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule’s regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity’s regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimization problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. We use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations. PMID:25580080

Optimizing human activity patterns using global sensitivity analysis

DOE PAGES

Fairchild, Geoffrey; Hickmann, Kyle S.; Mniszewski, Susan M.; ...

2013-12-10

Implementing realistic activity patterns for a population is crucial for modeling, for example, disease spread, supply and demand, and disaster response. Using the dynamic activity simulation engine, DASim, we generate schedules for a population that capture regular (e.g., working, eating, and sleeping) and irregular activities (e.g., shopping or going to the doctor). We use the sample entropy (SampEn) statistic to quantify a schedule’s regularity for a population. We show how to tune an activity’s regularity by adjusting SampEn, thereby making it possible to realistically design activities when creating a schedule. The tuning process sets up a computationally intractable high-dimensional optimizationmore » problem. To reduce the computational demand, we use Bayesian Gaussian process regression to compute global sensitivity indices and identify the parameters that have the greatest effect on the variance of SampEn. Here we use the harmony search (HS) global optimization algorithm to locate global optima. Our results show that HS combined with global sensitivity analysis can efficiently tune the SampEn statistic with few search iterations. We demonstrate how global sensitivity analysis can guide statistical emulation and global optimization algorithms to efficiently tune activities and generate realistic activity patterns. Finally, though our tuning methods are applied to dynamic activity schedule generation, they are general and represent a significant step in the direction of automated tuning and optimization of high-dimensional computer simulations.« less

Combining a Complex Network Approach and a SEIR Compartmental Model to link Fast Spreading of Infectious Diseases with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, F.; Hoffmann, P.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Infectious diseases are a major threat to human health. The spreading of airborne diseases has become fast and hard to predict. Global air travelling created a network which allows a pathogen to migrate worldwide in only a few days. Pandemics of SARS (2002/03) and H1N1 (2009) have impressively shown the epidemiological danger in a strongly connected world. In this study we simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. We use a regular Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model and a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental approach with the basis of a complex network built by global air traffic data (from openflights.org). Local Disease propagation is modeled with a global population dataset (from SEDAC and MaxMind) and parameterizations of human behavior regarding mobility, contacts and awareness. As a final component we combine the worldwide outbreak simulation with daily averaged climate data from WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Here we focus on Influenza-like illnesses (ILI), whose transmission rate has a dependency on relative humidity and temperature. Even small changes in relative humidity are sufficient to trigger significant differences in the global outbreak behavior. Apart from the direct effect of climate change on the transmission of airborne diseases, there are indirect ramifications that alter spreading patterns. For example seasonal changing human mobility is influenced by climate settings.

Global invasion history of the tropical fire ant: a stowaway on the first global trade routes.

PubMed

Gotzek, Dietrich; Axen, Heather J; Suarez, Andrew V; Helms Cahan, Sara; Shoemaker, DeWayne

2015-01-01

Biological invasions are largely thought to be contemporary, having recently increased sharply in the wake of globalization. However, human commerce had already become global by the mid-16th century when the Spanish connected the New World with Europe and Asia via their Manila galleon and West Indies trade routes. We use genetic data to trace the global invasion of one of the world's most widespread and invasive pest ants, the tropical fire ant, Solenopsis geminata. Our results reveal a pattern of introduction of Old World populations that is highly consistent with historical trading routes suggesting that Spanish trade introduced the tropical fire ant to Asia in the 16th century. We identify southwestern Mexico as the most likely source for the invasive populations, which is consistent with the use of Acapulco as the major Spanish port on the Pacific Ocean. From there, the Spanish galleons brought silver to Manila, which served as a hub for trade with China. The genetic data document a corresponding spread of S. geminata from Mexico via Manila to Taiwan and from there, throughout the Old World. Our descriptions of the worldwide spread of S. geminata represent a rare documented case of a biological invasion of a highly invasive and globally distributed pest species due to the earliest stages of global commerce. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Zika virus: review and obstetric anesthetic clinical considerations.

PubMed

Padilla, Cesar; Pan, Aileen; Geller, Andrew; Zakowski, Mark I

2016-12-01

To review the clinical and basic science literature regarding Zika viral illness and highlight relevant findings for obstetric anesthesiologists. This review provides a global review of Zika viral illness, transmission patterns, pathophysiology of disease, and anesthetic management of the parturient with Zika viral illness and associated comorbidities. Systematic review. Large academic hospital. None. None. None. None. With the rapid spread of Zika virus and expected increase of spread in the summer of 2016, this review provides anesthesiologists with current recommendations, physiologic alterations, and anesthetic considerations in regard to the parturient with Zika viral illness and associated diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Capital market based warning indicators of bank runs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vakhtina, Elena; Wosnitza, Jan Henrik

2015-01-01

In this investigation, we examine the univariate as well as the multivariate capabilities of the log-periodic [super-exponential] power law (LPPL) for the prediction of bank runs. The research is built upon daily CDS spreads of 40 international banks for the period from June 2007 to March 2010, i.e. at the heart of the global financial crisis. For this time period, 20 of the financial institutions received federal bailouts and are labeled as defaults while the remaining institutions are categorized as non-defaults. The employed multivariate pattern recognition approach represents a modification of the CORA3 algorithm. The approach is found to be robust regardless of reasonable changes of its inputs. Despite the fact that distinct alarm indices for banks do not clearly demonstrate predictive capabilities of the LPPL, the synchronized alarm indices confirm the multivariate discriminative power of LPPL patterns in CDS spread developments acknowledged by bootstrap intervals with 70% confidence level.

The global distribution of ecosystems in a world without fire.

PubMed

Bond, W J; Woodward, F I; Midgley, G F

2005-02-01

This paper is the first global study of the extent to which fire determines global vegetation patterns by preventing ecosystems from achieving the potential height, biomass and dominant functional types expected under the ambient climate (climate potential). To determine climate potential, we simulated vegetation without fire using a dynamic global-vegetation model. Model results were tested against fire exclusion studies from different parts of the world. Simulated dominant growth forms and tree cover were compared with satellite-derived land- and tree-cover maps. Simulations were generally consistent with results of fire exclusion studies in southern Africa and elsewhere. Comparison of global 'fire off' simulations with landcover and treecover maps show that vast areas of humid C(4) grasslands and savannas, especially in South America and Africa, have the climate potential to form forests. These are the most frequently burnt ecosystems in the world. Without fire, closed forests would double from 27% to 56% of vegetated grid cells, mostly at the expense of C(4) plants but also of C(3) shrubs and grasses in cooler climates. C(4) grasses began spreading 6-8 Ma, long before human influence on fire regimes. Our results suggest that fire was a major factor in their spread into forested regions, splitting biotas into fire tolerant and intolerant taxa.

Linking global climate and temperature variability to widespread amphibian declines putatively caused by disease.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R

2010-05-04

The role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial, and the effect of climatic variability, in particular, has largely been ignored. For instance, it was recently revealed that the proposed link between climate change and widespread amphibian declines, putatively caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), was tenuous because it was based on a temporally confounded correlation. Here we provide temporally unconfounded evidence that global El Niño climatic events drive widespread amphibian losses in genus Atelopus via increased regional temperature variability, which can reduce amphibian defenses against pathogens. Of 26 climate variables tested, only factors associated with temperature variability could account for the spatiotemporal patterns of declines thought to be associated with Bd. Climatic predictors of declines became significant only after controlling for a pattern consistent with epidemic spread (by temporally detrending the data). This presumed spread accounted for 59% of the temporal variation in amphibian losses, whereas El Niño accounted for 59% of the remaining variation. Hence, we could account for 83% of the variation in declines with these two variables alone. Given that global climate change seems to increase temperature variability, extreme climatic events, and the strength of Central Pacific El Niño episodes, climate change might exacerbate worldwide enigmatic declines of amphibians, presumably by increasing susceptibility to disease. These results suggest that changes to temperature variability associated with climate change might be as significant to biodiversity losses and disease emergence as changes to mean temperature.

Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto

2018-05-01

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.

Forecasting techno-social systems: how physics and computing help to fight off global pandemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-03-01

The crucial issue when planning for adequate public health interventions to mitigate the spread and impact of epidemics is risk evaluation and forecast. This amount to the anticipation of where, when and how strong the epidemic will strike. In the last decade advances in performance in computer technology, data acquisition, statistical physics and complex networks theory allow the generation of sophisticated simulations on supercomputer infrastructures to anticipate the spreading pattern of a pandemic. For the first time we are in the position of generating real time forecast of epidemic spreading. I will review the history of the current H1N1 pandemic, the major road-blocks the community has faced in its containment and mitigation and how physics and computing provide predictive tools that help us to battle epidemics.

Implications for U.S. trade and nonindigenous species risk resulting from increased economic integration of the Asia-Pacific Region

Treesearch

Amanda M. Countryman; Travis Warziniack; Erin Grey

2018-01-01

This work investigates how potential changes in trade patterns resulting from increased economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region may affect the risk for nonindigenous species spread to the United States. We construct an invasion risk index utilizing the results from a global economic modeling framework in tandem with data for climate similarities between trade...

Genetic analysis across different spatial scales reveals multiple dispersal mechanisms for the invasive hydrozoan Cordylophora in the Great Lakes.

PubMed

Darling, John A; Folino-Rorem, Nadine C

2009-12-01

Discerning patterns of post-establishment spread by invasive species is critically important for the design of effective management strategies and the development of appropriate theoretical models predicting spatial expansion of introduced populations. The globally invasive colonial hydrozoan Cordylophora produces propagules both sexually and vegetatively and is associated with multiple potential dispersal mechanisms, making it a promising system to investigate complex patterns of population structure generated throughout the course of rapid range expansion. Here, we explore genetic patterns associated with the spread of this taxon within the North American Great Lakes basin. We collected intensively from eight harbours in the Chicago area in order to conduct detailed investigation of local population expansion. In addition, we collected from Lakes Michigan, Erie, and Ontario, as well as Lake Cayuga in the Finger Lakes of upstate New York in order to assess genetic structure on a regional scale. Based on data from eight highly polymorphic microsatellite loci we examined the spatial extent of clonal genotypes, assessed levels of neutral genetic diversity, and explored patterns of migration and dispersal at multiple spatial scales through assessment of population level genetic differentiation (pairwise F(ST) and factorial correspondence analysis), Bayesian inference of population structure, and assignment tests on individual genotypes. Results of these analyses indicate that Cordylophora populations in this region spread predominantly through sexually produced propagules, and that while limited natural larval dispersal can drive expansion locally, regional expansion likely relies on anthropogenic dispersal vectors.

Perception of global image contrast involves transparent spatial filtering and the integration and suppression of local contrasts (not RMS contrast)

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

When adjusting the contrast setting on a television set, we experience a perceptual change in the global image contrast. But how is that statistic computed? We addressed this using a contrast-matching task for checkerboard configurations of micro-patterns in which the contrasts and spatial spreads of two interdigitated components were controlled independently. When the patterns differed greatly in contrast, the higher contrast determined the perceived global contrast. Crucially, however, low contrast additions of one pattern to intermediate contrasts of the other caused a paradoxical reduction in the perceived global contrast. None of the following metrics/models predicted this: max, linear sum, average, energy, root mean squared (RMS), Legge and Foley. However, a nonlinear gain control model, derived from contrast detection and discrimination experiments, incorporating wide-field summation and suppression, did predict the results with no free parameters, but only when spatial filtering was removed. We conclude that our model describes fundamental processes in human contrast vision (the pattern of results was the same for expert and naive observers), but that above threshold—when contrast pedestals are clearly visible—vision's spatial filtering characteristics become transparent, tending towards those of a delta function prior to spatial summation. The global contrast statistic from our model is as easily derived as the RMS contrast of an image, and since it more closely relates to human perception, we suggest it be used as an image contrast metric in practical applications. PMID:28989735

[Intestinal parasitic diseases as a global health problem].

PubMed

Chacín-Bonilla, Leonor

2013-03-01

In today's world, parasitic disease agents are not restricted by geography or economy, and have become a significant global threat. The increasing globalization of the fresh produce market and greater international trade and travels, have contributed to the spread of these organisms in the industrialized world. Parasitic protozoa cause waterborne and foodborne outbreaks of diarrhea. The unprecedented flow of people introduces cultural and behavior patterns around the world; the increasing tendency to eat raw or undercooked meat and seafood, favors the dissemination of several parasitic pathogens. Climate changes are predicted to cause a global increase in soil-transmitted helminthiases. The multidisciplinary study of these agents, and the interaction among scientists, global health organizations and governments are imperative to reduce the burden of these diseases and improve the life of a large segment of the world population.

Detecting a signal in the noise: monitoring the global spread of novel psychoactive substances using media and other open-source information†

PubMed Central

Young, Matthew M; Dubeau, Chad; Corazza, Ornella

2015-01-01

Objective To determine the feasibility and utility of using media reports and other open-source information collected by the Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN), an event-based surveillance system operated by the Public Health Agency of Canada, to rapidly detect clusters of adverse drug events associated with ‘novel psychoactive substances’ (NPS) at the international level. Methods and Results Researchers searched English media reports collected by the GPHIN between 1997 and 2013 for references to synthetic cannabinoids. They screened the resulting reports for relevance and content (i.e., reports of morbidity and arrest), plotted and compared with other available indicators (e.g., US poison control center exposures). The pattern of results from the analysis of GPHIN reports resembled the pattern seen from the other indicators. Conclusions The results of this study indicate that using media and other open-source information can help monitor the presence, usage, local policy, law enforcement responses, and spread of NPS in a rapid effective way. Further, modifying GPHIN to actively track NPS would be relatively inexpensive to implement and would be highly complementary to current national and international monitoring efforts. © 2015 The Authors. Human Psychopharmacology: Clinical and Experimental published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26216568

Analysis of Pacific oyster larval proteome and its response to high-CO2.

PubMed

Dineshram, R; Wong, Kelvin K W; Xiao, Shu; Yu, Ziniu; Qian, Pei Yuan; Thiyagarajan, Vengatesen

2012-10-01

Most calcifying organisms show depressed metabolic, growth and calcification rates as symptoms to high-CO(2) due to ocean acidification (OA) process. Analysis of the global expression pattern of proteins (proteome analysis) represents a powerful tool to examine these physiological symptoms at molecular level, but its applications are inadequate. To address this knowledge gap, 2-DE coupled with mass spectrophotometer was used to compare the global protein expression pattern of oyster larvae exposed to ambient and to high-CO(2). Exposure to OA resulted in marked reduction of global protein expression with a decrease or loss of 71 proteins (18% of the expressed proteins in control), indicating a wide-spread depression of metabolic genes expression in larvae reared under OA. This is, to our knowledge, the first proteome analysis that provides insights into the link between physiological suppression and protein down-regulation under OA in oyster larvae. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global Spread of Human Chromoblastomycosis Is Driven by Recombinant Cladophialophora carrionii and Predominantly Clonal Fonsecaea Species.

PubMed

Deng, Shuwen; Tsui, Clement K M; Gerrits van den Ende, A H G; Yang, Liyue; Najafzadeh, Mohammad Javad; Badali, Hamid; Li, Ruoyu; Hagen, Ferry; Meis, Jacques F; Sun, Jiufeng; Dolatabadi, Somayeh; Papierok, Bernard; Pan, Weihua; de Hoog, G S; Liao, Wanqing

2015-01-01

Global distribution patterns of Cladophialophora carrionii, agent of human chromoblastomycosis in arid climates of Africa, Asia, Australia, Central-and South-America, were compared with similar data of the vicarious Fonsecaea spp., agents of the disease in tropical rain forests. Population diversities among 73 C. carrionii strains and 60 strains of three Fonsecaea species were analyzed for rDNA ITS, partial β-tubulin, and amplified fragment-length polymorphism (AFLP) fingerprints. Populations differed significantly between continents. Lowest haplotype diversity was found in South American populations, while African strains were the most diverse. Gene flow was noted between the African population and all other continents. The general pattern of Fonsecaea agents of chromoblastomycosis differed significantly from that of C. carrionii and revealed deeper divergence among three differentiated species with smaller numbers of haplotypes, indicating a longer evolutionary history.

What is the impact of natural variability and aerosol-cloud interaction on the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiedler, S.; Stevens, B.; Mauritsen, T.

2017-12-01

State-of-the-art climate models have persistently shown a spread in estimates of the effective radiative forcing (ERF) associated with anthropogenic aerosol. Different reasons for the spread are known, but their relative importance is poorly understood. In this presentation we investigate the role of natural atmospheric variability, global patterns of aerosol radiative effects, and magnitudes of aerosol-cloud interaction in controlling the ERF of anthropogenic aerosol (Fiedler et al., 2017). We use the Earth system model MPI-ESM1.2 for conducting ensembles of atmosphere-only simulations and calculate the shortwave ERF of anthropogenic aerosol at the top of the atmosphere. The radiative effects are induced with the new parameterisation MACv2-SP (Stevens et al., 2017) that prescribes observationally constrained anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect. Firstly, we compare the ERF of global patterns of anthropogenic aerosol from the mid-1970s and today. Our results suggest that such a substantial pattern difference has a negligible impact on the global mean ERF, when the natural variability of the atmosphere is considered. The clouds herein efficiently mask the clear-sky contributions to the forcing and reduce the detectability of significant anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects in all-sky conditions. Secondly, we strengthen the forcing magnitude through increasing the effect of aerosol-cloud interaction by prescribing an enhanced Twomey effect. In that case, the different spatial pattern of aerosol radiative effects from the mid-1970s and today causes a moderate change (15%) in the ERF of anthropogenic aerosol in our model. This finding lets us speculate that models with strong aerosol-cloud interactions would show a stronger ERF change with anthropogenic aerosol patterns. Testing whether the anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing is model-dependent under prescribed aerosol conditions is currently ongoing work using MACv2-SP in comprehensive aerosol-climate models in the framework of the EU-funded project BACCHUS. In the future, MACv2-SP will be used in models participating in the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (Pincus et al., 2016).

Global Dispersal Pattern of HIV Type 1 Subtype CRF01_AE: A Genetic Trace of Human Mobility Related to Heterosexual Sexual Activities Centralized in Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Angelis, Konstantinos; Albert, Jan; Mamais, Ioannis; Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Hatzakis, Angelos; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie M J; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Andrzej; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elisabeth; Schmit, Jean-Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Boucher, Charles A B; Kaplan, Lauren; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

2015-06-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype CRF01_AE originated in Africa and then passed to Thailand, where it established a major epidemic. Despite the global presence of CRF01_AE, little is known about its subsequent dispersal pattern. We assembled a global data set of 2736 CRF01_AE sequences by pooling sequences from public databases and patient-cohort studies. We estimated viral dispersal patterns, using statistical phylogeographic analysis run over bootstrap trees estimated by the maximum likelihood method. We show that Thailand has been the source of viral dispersal to most areas worldwide, including 17 of 20 sampled countries in Europe. Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and other Asian countries have played a secondary role in the viral dissemination. In contrast, China and Taiwan have mainly imported strains from neighboring Asian countries, North America, and Africa without any significant viral exportation. The central role of Thailand in the global spread of CRF01_AE can be probably explained by the popularity of Thailand as a vacation destination characterized by sex tourism and by Thai emigration to the Western world. Our study highlights the unique case of CRF01_AE, the only globally distributed non-B clade whose global dispersal did not originate in Africa. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Predicting the global spread range via small subnetworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jiachen; Dong, Junyou; Ma, Xiao; Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing

2017-04-01

Modern online social network platforms are replacing traditional media due to their effectiveness in both spreading information and communicating opinions. One of the key problems in these online platforms is to predict the global spread range of any given information. Due to its gigantic size as well as time-varying dynamics, an online social network's global structure, however, is usually inaccessible to most researchers. Thus, it raises the very important issue of how to use solely small subnetworks to predict the global influence. In this paper, based on percolation theory, we show that the global spread range can be predicted well from only two small subnetworks. We test our methods in an artificial network and three empirical online social networks, such as the full Sina Weibo network with 99546027 nodes.

Phylogeographical footprint of colonial history in the global dispersal of human immunodeficiency virus type 2 group A

PubMed Central

Hodges-Mameletzis, Ioannis; Silva, Joana C.; Rodés, Berta; Erasmus, Smit; Paolucci, Stefania; Ruelle, Jean; Pieniazek, Danuta; Taveira, Nuno; Treviño, Ana; Gonçalves, Maria F.; Jallow, Sabelle; Xu, Li; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Soriano, Vincent; Goubau, Patrick; de Sousa, João D.; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe

2012-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) emerged in West Africa and has spread further to countries that share socio-historical ties with this region. However, viral origins and dispersal patterns at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we adopt a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the spatial dynamics of HIV-2 group A (HIV-2A) using a collection of 320 partial pol and 248 partial env sequences sampled throughout 19 countries worldwide. We extend phylogenetic diffusion models that simultaneously draw information from multiple loci to estimate location states throughout distinct phylogenies and explicitly attempt to incorporate human migratory fluxes. Our study highlights that Guinea-Bissau, together with Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, have acted as the main viral sources in the early stages of the epidemic. We show that convenience sampling can obfuscate the estimation of the spatial root of HIV-2A. We explicitly attempt to circumvent this by incorporating rate priors that reflect the ratio of human flow from and to West Africa. We recover four main routes of HIV-2A dispersal that are laid out along colonial ties: Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde to Portugal, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal to France. Within Europe, we find strong support for epidemiological linkage from Portugal to Luxembourg and to the UK. We demonstrate that probabilistic models can uncover global patterns of HIV-2A dispersal providing sampling bias is taken into account and we provide a scenario for the international spread of this virus. PMID:22190015

Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana

PubMed Central

Flamand, Claude; Fabregue, Mickael; Bringay, Sandra; Ardillon, Vanessa; Quénel, Philippe; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Teisseire, Maguelonne

2014-01-01

Objective To identify local meteorological drivers of dengue fever in French Guiana, we applied an original data mining method to the available epidemiological and climatic data. Through this work, we also assessed the contribution of the data mining method to the understanding of factors associated with the dissemination of infectious diseases and their spatiotemporal spread. Methods We applied contextual sequential pattern extraction techniques to epidemiological and meteorological data to identify the most significant climatic factors for dengue fever, and we investigated the relevance of the extracted patterns for the early warning of dengue outbreaks in French Guiana. Results The maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, global brilliance, and cumulative rainfall were identified as determinants of dengue outbreaks, and the precise intervals of their values and variations were quantified according to the epidemiologic context. The strongest significant correlations were observed between dengue incidence and meteorological drivers after a 4–6-week lag. Discussion We demonstrated the use of contextual sequential patterns to better understand the determinants of the spatiotemporal spread of dengue fever in French Guiana. Future work should integrate additional variables and explore the notion of neighborhood for extracting sequential patterns. Conclusions Dengue fever remains a major public health issue in French Guiana. The development of new methods to identify such specific characteristics becomes crucial in order to better understand and control spatiotemporal transmission. PMID:24549761

Delaying the international spread of pandemic influenza.

PubMed

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-06-01

The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks.

Accounting for sampling patterns reverses the relative importance of trade and climate for the global sharing of exotic plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

2017-01-01

AimThe distributions of exotic species reflect patterns of human-mediated dispersal, species climatic tolerances and a suite of other biotic and abiotic factors. The relative importance of each of these factors will shape how the spread of exotic species is affected by ongoing economic globalization and climate change. However, patterns of trade may be correlated with variation in scientific sampling effort globally, potentially confounding studies that do not account for sampling patterns.LocationGlobal.Time periodMuseum records, generally from the 1800s up to 2015.Major taxa studiedPlant species exotic to the United States.MethodsWe used data from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) to summarize the number of plant species with exotic occurrences in the United States that also occur in each other country world-wide. We assessed the relative importance of trade and climatic similarity for explaining variation in the number of shared species while evaluating several methods to account for variation in sampling effort among countries.ResultsAccounting for variation in sampling effort reversed the relative importance of trade and climate for explaining numbers of shared species. Trade was strongly correlated with numbers of shared U.S. exotic plants between the United States and other countries before, but not after, accounting for sampling variation among countries. Conversely, accounting for sampling effort strengthened the relationship between climatic similarity and species sharing. Using the number of records as a measure of sampling effort provided a straightforward approach for the analysis of occurrence data, whereas species richness estimators and rarefaction were less effective at removing sampling bias.Main conclusionsOur work provides support for broad-scale climatic limitation on the distributions of exotic species, illustrates the need to account for variation in sampling effort in large biodiversity databases, and highlights the difficulty in inferring causal links between the economic drivers of invasion and global patterns of exotic species occurrence.

Needle Tip Position and Bevel Direction Have No Effect in the Fluoroscopic Epidural Spreading Pattern in Caudal Epidural Injections: A Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Kwon, Won Kyoung; Kim, Ah Na; Lee, Pil Moo; Park, Cheol Hwan; Kim, Jae Hun

2016-01-01

Background. Caudal epidural steroid injections (CESIs) are an effective treatment for pain. If the injection spreads in a specific pattern depending on the needle position or bevel direction, it would be possible to inject the agent into a specific and desired area. Objectives. We conducted a prospective randomized trial to determine if the needle position and bevel direction have any effect on the epidural spreading pattern in CESI. Methods. Demographic data of the patient were collected. During CESI, the needle position (middle or lateral) and direction (ventral or dorsal) were randomly allocated. Following fluoroscope-guided injection of 4 mL contrast media and 10 mL of injectates, the epidural spreading patterns (ventral or dorsal, bilateral or lateral) were imaged. Results. In the 210 CESIs performed, the needle tip position and bevel direction did not influence the epidural spreading patterns at L4-5 and L5-S1 disc levels. A history of Lumbar spine surgery was associated with a significantly limited spread to each disc level. A midline needle tip position was more effective than the lateral position in spreading to the distant disc levels. Conclusions. Neither the needle tip position nor the bevel direction affected the epidural drug spreading pattern during CESI. PMID:27445609

Cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks.

PubMed

Wei, Xiang; Chen, Shihua; Wu, Xiaoqun; Ning, Di; Lu, Jun-An

2016-06-01

This study is concerned with the dynamic behaviors of epidemic spreading in multiplex networks. A model composed of two interacting complex networks is proposed to describe cooperative spreading processes, wherein the virus spreading in one layer can penetrate into the other to promote the spreading process. The global epidemic threshold of the model is smaller than the epidemic thresholds of the corresponding isolated networks. Thus, global epidemic onset arises in the interacting networks even though an epidemic onset does not arise in each isolated network. Simulations verify the analysis results and indicate that cooperative spreading processes in multiplex networks enhance the final infection fraction.

Amagmatic Accretionary Segments, Ultraslow Spreading and Non-Volcanic Rifted Margins (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dick, H. J.; Snow, J. E.

2009-12-01

The evolution of non-volcanic rifted margins is key to understanding continental breakup and the early evolution of some of the world’s most productive hydrocarbon basins. However, the early stages of such rifting are constrained by limited observations on ancient heavily sedimented margins such as Newfoundland and Iberia. Ultraslow spreading ridges, however, provide a modern analogue for early continental rifting. Ultraslow spreading ridges (<20 mm/yr) comprise ~30% of the global ridge system (e.g. Gakkel, Southwest Indian, Terceira, and Knipovitch Ridges). They have unique tectonics with widely spaced volcanic segments and amagmatic accretionary ridge segments. The volcanic segments, though far from hot spots, include some of the largest axial volcanoes on the global ridge system, and have, unusual magma chemistry, often showing local isotopic and incompatible element enrichment unrelated to mantle hot spots. The transition from slow to ultraslow tectonics and spreading is not uniquely defined by spreading rate, and may also be moderated by magma supply and mantle temperature. Amagmatic accretionary segments are the 4th class of plate boundary structure, and, we believe, the defining tectonic feature of early continental breakup. They form at effective spreading rates <12 mm/yr, assume any orientation to spreading, and replace transform faults and magmatic segments. At amagmatic segments the earth splits apart with the mantle emplaced directly to the seafloor, and great slabs of peridotite are uplifted to form the rift mountains. A thick conductive lid suppresses mantle melting, and magmatic segments form only at widely spaced intervals, with only scattered volcanics in between. Amagmatic segments link with the magmatic segments forming curvilinear plate boundaries, rather than the step-like morphology found at faster spreading ridges. These are all key features of non-volcanic rifted margins; explaining, for example, the presence of mantle peridotites emplaced simultaneously on both the Newfoundland and Iberian Margins in the Jurassic and Cretaceous. Miocene Lena Trough is a new mid-ocean rift plate boundary and the final event in the separation of the North American and Eurasian continents. Mapping and sampling of Lena Trough confirms that it is both oblique and amagmatic, showing that initiation of seafloor spreading at a non-volcanic rifted continental margin follows the same pattern as ultraslow spreading ridges.

Abortion Liberalization in World Society, 1960-2009

PubMed Central

Boyle, Elizabeth H.; Kim, Minzee; Longhofer, Wesley

2015-01-01

Controversy sets abortion apart from other issues studied by world society theorists, who consider the tendency for policies institutionalized at the global level to diffuse across very different countries. We conduct an event history analysis of the spread (however limited) of abortion liberalization policies from 1960 to 2009. After identifying three dominant frames (a women's rights frame, a medical frame, and a religious, natural family frame), we find that indicators of a scientific, medical frame show consistent association with liberalization of policies specifying acceptable grounds for abortion. Women's leadership roleshave a stronger and more consistent liberalizing effect than do countries' links to a global women's rights discourse. Somewhat different patterns emerge around the likelihood of adopting an additional policy, controlling for first policy adoption. Even as support for women's autonomy has grown globally, with respect to abortion liberalization, persistent, powerful frames compete at the global level, preventing robust policy diffusion. PMID:26900619

Abortion Liberalization in World Society, 1960-2009.

PubMed

Boyle, Elizabeth H; Kim, Minzee; Longhofer, Wesley

2015-11-01

Controversy sets abortion apart from other issues studied by world society theorists, who consider the tendency for policies institutionalized at the global level to diffuse across very different countries. The authors conduct an event history analysis of the spread (however limited) of abortion liberalization policies from 1960 to 2009. After identifying three dominant frames (a women's rights frame, a medical frame, and a religious, natural family frame), the authors find that indicators of a scientific, medical frame show consistent association with liberalization of policies specifying acceptable grounds for abortion. Women's leadership roles have a stronger and more consistent liberalizing effect than do countries' links to a global women's rights discourse. Somewhat different patterns emerge around the likelihood of adopting an additional policy, controlling for first policy adoption. Even as support for women's autonomy has grown globally, with respect to abortion liberalization, persistent, powerful frames compete at the global level, preventing robust policy diffusion.

Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pu; Gonzalez, Marta; Hidalgo, Cesar; Barabasi, Albert-Laszlo

2009-03-01

Mobile viruses are little more than a nuisance today, but given our increased reliance on wireless communication, in the near future they could pose more risk than their PC based counterparts. Despite of the more than three hundred mobile viruses known so far, little is known about their spreading pattern, partly due to a lack of data on the communication and travel patterns of mobile phone users. Starting from the traffic and the communication pattern of six million mobile phone users, we model the vulnerability of mobile communications against potential virus outbreaks. We show that viruses exploiting Bluetooth and multimedia messaging services (MMS) follow markedly different spreading patterns. The Bluetooth virus can reach all susceptible handsets, but spreads relatively slowly, as its spread is driven by human mobility. In contrast, an MMS virus can spread rapidly, but because the underlying social network is fragmented, it can reach only a small fraction of all susceptible users. This difference affects both their spreading rate, the number of infected users, as well as the defense measures one needs to take to protect the system against potential viral outbreak.

The Story of a Hitchhiker: Population Genetic Patterns in the Invasive Barnacle Balanus(Amphibalanus) improvisus Darwin 1854

PubMed Central

Wrange, Anna-Lisa; Charrier, Gregory; Thonig, Anne; Alm Rosenblad, Magnus; Blomberg, Anders; Havenhand, Jonathan N.; Jonsson, Per R.; André, Carl

2016-01-01

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary forces that determine the genetic structure and spread of invasive species is a key component of invasion biology. The bay barnacle, Balanus improvisus (= Amphibalanus improvisus), is one of the most successful aquatic invaders worldwide, and is characterised by broad environmental tolerance. Although the species can spread through natural larval dispersal, human-mediated transport through (primarily) shipping has almost certainly contributed to the current global distribution of this species. Despite its worldwide distribution, little is known about the phylogeography of this species. Here, we characterize the population genetic structure and model dispersal dynamics of the barnacle B. improvisus, and describe how human-mediated spreading via shipping as well as natural larval dispersal may have contributed to observed genetic variation. We used both mitochondrial DNA (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I: COI) and nuclear microsatellites to characterize the genetic structure in 14 populations of B. improvisus on a global and regional scale (Baltic Sea). Genetic diversity was high in most populations, and many haplotypes were shared among populations on a global scale, indicating that long-distance dispersal (presumably through shipping and other anthropogenic activities) has played an important role in shaping the population genetic structure of this cosmopolitan species. We could not clearly confirm prior claims that B. improvisus originates from the western margins of the Atlantic coasts; although there were indications that Argentina could be part of a native region. In addition to dispersal via shipping, we show that natural larval dispersal may play an important role for further colonisation following initial introduction. PMID:26821161

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Armed conflict and population displacement as drivers of the evolution and dispersal of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

PubMed

Eldholm, Vegard; Pettersson, John H-O; Brynildsrud, Ola B; Kitchen, Andrew; Rasmussen, Erik Michael; Lillebaek, Troels; Rønning, Janne O; Crudu, Valeriu; Mengshoel, Anne Torunn; Debech, Nadia; Alfsnes, Kristian; Bohlin, Jon; Pepperell, Caitlin S; Balloux, Francois

2016-11-29

The "Beijing" Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineage 2 (L2) is spreading globally and has been associated with accelerated disease progression and increased antibiotic resistance. Here we performed a phylodynamic reconstruction of one of the L2 sublineages, the central Asian clade (CAC), which has recently spread to western Europe. We find that recent historical events have contributed to the evolution and dispersal of the CAC. Our timing estimates indicate that the clade was likely introduced to Afghanistan during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan war and spread further after population displacement in the wake of the American invasion in 2001. We also find that drug resistance mutations accumulated on a massive scale in Mtb isolates from former Soviet republics after the fall of the Soviet Union, a pattern that was not observed in CAC isolates from Afghanistan. Our results underscore the detrimental effects of political instability and population displacement on tuberculosis control and demonstrate the power of phylodynamic methods in exploring bacterial evolution in space and time.

Scale-free correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallos, Lazaros; Barttfeld, Pablo; Havlin, Shlomo; Sigman, Mariano; Makse, Hernan

2012-02-01

Obesity levels have been universally increasing. A crucial problem is to determine the influence of global and local drivers behind the obesity epidemic, to properly guide effective policies. Despite the numerous factors that affect the obesity evolution, we show a remarkable regularity expressed in a predictable pattern of spatial long-range correlations in the geographical spreading of obesity. We study the spatial clustering of obesity and a number of related health and economic indicators, and we use statistical physics methods to characterize the growth of the resulting clusters. The resulting scaling exponents allow us to broadly classify these indicators into two separate universality classes, weakly or strongly correlated. Weak correlations are found in generic human activity such as population distribution and the growth of the whole economy. Strong correlations are recovered, among others, for obesity, diabetes, and the food industry sectors associated with food consumption. Obesity turns out to be a global problem where local details are of little importance. The long-range correlations suggest influence that extends to large scales, hinting that the physical model of obesity clustering can be mapped to a long-range correlated percolation process.

Whole-mantle convection with tectonic plates preserves long-term global patterns of upper mantle geochemistry.

PubMed

Barry, T L; Davies, J H; Wolstencroft, M; Millar, I L; Zhao, Z; Jian, P; Safonova, I; Price, M

2017-05-12

The evolution of the planetary interior during plate tectonics is controlled by slow convection within the mantle. Global-scale geochemical differences across the upper mantle are known, but how they are preserved during convection has not been adequately explained. We demonstrate that the geographic patterns of chemical variations around the Earth's mantle endure as a direct result of whole-mantle convection within largely isolated cells defined by subducting plates. New 3D spherical numerical models embedded with the latest geological paleo-tectonic reconstructions and ground-truthed with new Hf-Nd isotope data, suggest that uppermost mantle at one location (e.g. under Indian Ocean) circulates down to the core-mantle boundary (CMB), but returns within ≥100 Myrs via large-scale convection to its approximate starting location. Modelled tracers pool at the CMB but do not disperse ubiquitously around it. Similarly, mantle beneath the Pacific does not spread to surrounding regions of the planet. The models fit global patterns of isotope data and may explain features such as the DUPAL anomaly and long-standing differences between Indian and Pacific Ocean crust. Indeed, the geochemical data suggests this mode of convection could have influenced the evolution of mantle composition since 550 Ma and potentially since the onset of plate tectonics.

Effects of multiple spreaders in community networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhao-Long; Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Yang, Guang-Yong; Liu, Jian-Guo

2014-12-01

Human contact networks exhibit the community structure. Understanding how such community structure affects the epidemic spreading could provide insights for preventing the spreading of epidemics between communities. In this paper, we explore the spreading of multiple spreaders in community networks. A network based on the clustering preferential mechanism is evolved, whose communities are detected by the Girvan-Newman (GN) algorithm. We investigate the spreading effectiveness by selecting the nodes as spreaders in the following ways: nodes with the largest degree in each community (community hubs), the same number of nodes with the largest degree from the global network (global large-degree) and randomly selected one node within each community (community random). The experimental results on the SIR model show that the spreading effectiveness based on the global large-degree and community hubs methods is the same in the early stage of the infection and the method of community random is the worst. However, when the infection rate exceeds the critical value, the global large-degree method embodies the worst spreading effectiveness. Furthermore, the discrepancy of effectiveness for the three methods will decrease as the infection rate increases. Therefore, we should immunize the hubs in each community rather than those hubs in the global network to prevent the outbreak of epidemics.

Delaying the International Spread of Pandemic Influenza

PubMed Central

Cooper, Ben S; Pitman, Richard J; Edmunds, W. John; Gay, Nigel J

2006-01-01

Background The recent emergence of hypervirulent subtypes of avian influenza has underlined the potentially devastating effects of pandemic influenza. Were such a virus to acquire the ability to spread efficiently between humans, control would almost certainly be hampered by limited vaccine supplies unless global spread could be substantially delayed. Moreover, the large increases that have occurred in international air travel might be expected to lead to more rapid global dissemination than in previous pandemics. Methods and Findings To evaluate the potential of local control measures and travel restrictions to impede global dissemination, we developed stochastic models of the international spread of influenza based on extensions of coupled epidemic transmission models. These models have been shown to be capable of accurately forecasting local and global spread of epidemic and pandemic influenza. We show that under most scenarios restrictions on air travel are likely to be of surprisingly little value in delaying epidemics, unless almost all travel ceases very soon after epidemics are detected. Conclusions Interventions to reduce local transmission of influenza are likely to be more effective at reducing the rate of global spread and less vulnerable to implementation delays than air travel restrictions. Nevertheless, under the most plausible scenarios, achievable delays are small compared with the time needed to accumulate substantial vaccine stocks. PMID:16640458

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.

Risk of global spread of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) via the air transport network.

PubMed

Gardner, Lauren M; Chughtai, Abrar A; MacIntyre, C Raina

2016-06-01

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) emerged from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in 2012 and has since spread to 26 countries. All cases reported so far have either been in the Middle East or linked to the region through passenger air travel, with the largest outbreak outside KSA occurring in South Korea. Further international spread is likely due to the high travel volumes of global travel, as well as the occurrence of large annual mass gathering such as the Haj and Umrah pilgrimages that take place in the region. In this study, a transport network modelling framework was used to quantify the risk of MERS-CoV spreading internationally via air travellers. All regions connected to MERS-CoV affected countries via air travel are considered, and the countries at highest risk of travel-related importations of MERS-CoV were identified, ranked and compared with actual spread of MERS cases. The model identifies all countries that have previously reported a travel acquired case to be in the top 50 at-risk countries. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the highest risk countries which have yet to report a case, and should be prepared for the possibility of (pilgrims and general) travellers returning infected with MERS-CoV. In addition, the UK, Egypt, Turkey and the USA are at risk of more cases. We have demonstrated a risk-analysis approach, using travel patterns, to prioritize countries at highest risk for MERS-CoV importations. In order to prevent global outbreaks such as the one seen in South Korea, it is critical for high-risk countries to be prepared and have appropriate screening and triage protocols in place to identify travel-related cases of MERS-CoV. The results from the model can be used by countries to prioritize their airport and hospital screening and triage protocols. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2016. All rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Development of a Stereovision-Based Technique to Measure the Spread Patterns of Granular Fertilizer Spreaders

PubMed Central

Cool, Simon R.; Pieters, Jan G.; Seatovic, Dejan; Mertens, Koen C.; Nuyttens, David; Van De Gucht, Tim C.; Vangeyte, Jürgen

2017-01-01

Centrifugal fertilizer spreaders are by far the most commonly used granular fertilizer spreader type in Europe. Their spread pattern however is error-prone, potentially leading to an undesired distribution of particles in the field and losses out of the field, which is often caused by poor calibration of the spreader for the specific fertilizer used. Due to the large environmental impact of fertilizer use, it is important to optimize the spreading process and minimize these errors. Spreader calibrations can be performed by using collection trays to determine the (field) spread pattern, but this is very time-consuming and expensive for the farmer and hence not common practice. Therefore, we developed an innovative multi-camera system to predict the spread pattern in a fast and accurate way, independent of the spreader configuration. Using high-speed stereovision, ejection parameters of particles leaving the spreader vanes were determined relative to a coordinate system associated with the spreader. The landing positions and subsequent spread patterns were determined using a ballistic model incorporating the effect of tractor motion and wind. Experiments were conducted with a commercial spreader and showed a high repeatability. The results were transformed to one spatial dimension to enable comparison with transverse spread patterns determined in the field and showed similar results. PMID:28617339

Epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lingna; Sun, Mengfeng; Chen, Shanshan; Fu, Xinchu

2016-09-01

Numerous real-world networks (e.g., social, communicational, and biological networks) have been observed to depend on each other, and this results in interconnected networks with different topology structures and dynamics functions. In this paper, we focus on the scenario of epidemic spreading on one-way-coupled networks comprised of two subnetworks, which can manifest the transmission of some zoonotic diseases. By proposing a mathematical model through mean-field approximation approach, we prove the global stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria of this model. Through the theoretical and numerical analysis, we obtain interesting results: the basic reproduction number R0 of the whole network is the maximum of the basic reproduction numbers of the two subnetworks; R0 is independent of the cross-infection rate and cross contact pattern; R0 increases rapidly with the growth of inner infection rate if the inner contact pattern is scale-free; in order to eradicate zoonotic diseases from human beings, we must simultaneously eradicate them from animals; bird-to-bird infection rate has bigger impact on the human's average infected density than bird-to-human infection rate.

Global malaria connectivity through air travel.

PubMed

Huang, Zhuojie; Tatem, Andrew J

2013-08-02

Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow of air passengers connects each Plasmodium falciparum- and Plasmodium vivax-endemic region to the rest of the world. Recently constructed global P. falciparum and P.vivax malaria risk maps, along with data on flight schedules and modelled passenger flows across the air network, were combined to describe and quantify global malaria connectivity through air travel. Network analysis approaches were then utilized to describe and quantify the patterns that exist in passenger flows weighted by malaria prevalence. Finally, the connectivity within and to the Southeast Asia region where the threat of imported artemisinin resistance arising is highest, was examined to highlight risk routes for its spread. The analyses demonstrate the substantial connectivity that now exists between and from malaria-endemic regions through air travel. While the air network provides connections to previously isolated malarious regions, it is clear that great variations exist, with significant regional communities of airports connected by higher rates of flow standing out. The structures of these communities are often not geographically coherent, with historical, economic and cultural ties evident, and variations between P. falciparum and P. vivax clear. Moreover, results highlight how well connected the malaria-endemic areas of Africa are now to Southeast Asia, illustrating the many possible routes that artemisinin-resistant strains could take. The continuing growth in air travel is playing an important role in the global epidemiology of malaria, with the endemic world becoming increasingly connected to both malaria-free areas and other endemic regions. The research presented here provides an initial effort to quantify and analyse the connectivity that exists across the malaria-endemic world through air travel, and provide a basic assessment of the risks it results in for movement of infections.

Global malaria connectivity through air travel

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Air travel has expanded at an unprecedented rate and continues to do so. Its effects have been seen on malaria in rates of imported cases, local outbreaks in non-endemic areas and the global spread of drug resistance. With elimination and global eradication back on the agenda, changing levels and compositions of imported malaria in malaria-free countries, and the threat of artemisinin resistance spreading from Southeast Asia, there is a need to better understand how the modern flow of air passengers connects each Plasmodium falciparum- and Plasmodium vivax-endemic region to the rest of the world. Methods Recently constructed global P. falciparum and P.vivax malaria risk maps, along with data on flight schedules and modelled passenger flows across the air network, were combined to describe and quantify global malaria connectivity through air travel. Network analysis approaches were then utilized to describe and quantify the patterns that exist in passenger flows weighted by malaria prevalence. Finally, the connectivity within and to the Southeast Asia region where the threat of imported artemisinin resistance arising is highest, was examined to highlight risk routes for its spread. Results The analyses demonstrate the substantial connectivity that now exists between and from malaria-endemic regions through air travel. While the air network provides connections to previously isolated malarious regions, it is clear that great variations exist, with significant regional communities of airports connected by higher rates of flow standing out. The structures of these communities are often not geographically coherent, with historical, economic and cultural ties evident, and variations between P. falciparum and P. vivax clear. Moreover, results highlight how well connected the malaria-endemic areas of Africa are now to Southeast Asia, illustrating the many possible routes that artemisinin-resistant strains could take. Discussion The continuing growth in air travel is playing an important role in the global epidemiology of malaria, with the endemic world becoming increasingly connected to both malaria-free areas and other endemic regions. The research presented here provides an initial effort to quantify and analyse the connectivity that exists across the malaria-endemic world through air travel, and provide a basic assessment of the risks it results in for movement of infections. PMID:23914776

Mining local climate data to assess spatiotemporal dengue fever epidemic patterns in French Guiana.

PubMed

Flamand, Claude; Fabregue, Mickael; Bringay, Sandra; Ardillon, Vanessa; Quénel, Philippe; Desenclos, Jean-Claude; Teisseire, Maguelonne

2014-10-01

To identify local meteorological drivers of dengue fever in French Guiana, we applied an original data mining method to the available epidemiological and climatic data. Through this work, we also assessed the contribution of the data mining method to the understanding of factors associated with the dissemination of infectious diseases and their spatiotemporal spread. We applied contextual sequential pattern extraction techniques to epidemiological and meteorological data to identify the most significant climatic factors for dengue fever, and we investigated the relevance of the extracted patterns for the early warning of dengue outbreaks in French Guiana. The maximum temperature, minimum relative humidity, global brilliance, and cumulative rainfall were identified as determinants of dengue outbreaks, and the precise intervals of their values and variations were quantified according to the epidemiologic context. The strongest significant correlations were observed between dengue incidence and meteorological drivers after a 4-6-week lag. We demonstrated the use of contextual sequential patterns to better understand the determinants of the spatiotemporal spread of dengue fever in French Guiana. Future work should integrate additional variables and explore the notion of neighborhood for extracting sequential patterns. Dengue fever remains a major public health issue in French Guiana. The development of new methods to identify such specific characteristics becomes crucial in order to better understand and control spatiotemporal transmission. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climatic variation.

PubMed

Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus.

Over the hills and further away from coast: global geospatial patterns of human and environment over the 20th-21st centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummu, Matti; de Moel, Hans; Salvucci, Gianluigi; Viviroli, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.; Varis, Olli

2016-03-01

Proximity to the coast and elevation are important geographical considerations for human settlement. Little is known, however, about how spatial variation in these factors exactly relates to human settlements and activities, and how this has developed over time. Such knowledge is important for identifying vulnerable regions that are at risk from phenomena such as food shortages and water stress. Human activities are a key driving force in global change, and thus detailed information on population distribution is an important input to any research framework on global change. In this paper we assess the global geospatial patterns of the distribution of human population and related factors, with regard to the altitude above sea level and proximity to the coast. The investigated factors are physical conditions, urbanisation, agricultural practices, economy, and environmental stress. An important novel element in this study, is that we included the temporal evolution in various factors related to human settlements and agricultural practices over the 20th century, and used projections for some of these factors up to the year 2050. We found population pressure in the proximity of the coast to be somewhat greater than was found in other studies. Yet, the distribution of population, urbanisation and wealth are evolving to become more evenly spread across the globe than they were in the past. Therefore, the commonly believed tendency of accumulation of people and wealth along coasts is not supported by our results. At the same time, food production is becoming increasingly decoupled from the trends in population density. Croplands are spreading from highly populated coastal zones towards inland zones. Our results thus indicate that even though people and wealth continue to accumulate in proximity to the coast, population densities and economic productivity are becoming less diverse in relation to elevation and distance from the coast.

Modular and hierarchical structure of social contact networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Yuanzheng; Song, Zhichao; Qiu, Xiaogang; Song, Hongbin; Wang, Yong

2013-10-01

Social contact networks exhibit overlapping qualities of communities, hierarchical structure and spatial-correlated nature. We propose a mixing pattern of modular and growing hierarchical structures to reconstruct social contact networks by using an individual’s geospatial distribution information in the real world. The hierarchical structure of social contact networks is defined based on the spatial distance between individuals, and edges among individuals are added in turn from the modular layer to the highest layer. It is a gradual process to construct the hierarchical structure: from the basic modular model up to the global network. The proposed model not only shows hierarchically increasing degree distribution and large clustering coefficients in communities, but also exhibits spatial clustering features of individual distributions. As an evaluation of the method, we reconstruct a hierarchical contact network based on the investigation data of a university. Transmission experiments of influenza H1N1 are carried out on the generated social contact networks, and results show that the constructed network is efficient to reproduce the dynamic process of an outbreak and evaluate interventions. The reproduced spread process exhibits that the spatial clustering of infection is accordant with the clustering of network topology. Moreover, the effect of individual topological character on the spread of influenza is analyzed, and the experiment results indicate that the spread is limited by individual daily contact patterns and local clustering topology rather than individual degree.

Framing international trade and chronic disease

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

There is an emerging evidence base that global trade is linked with the rise of chronic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This linkage is associated, in part, with the global diffusion of unhealthy lifestyles and health damaging products posing a particular challenge to countries still facing high burdens of communicable disease. We developed a generic framework which depicts the determinants and pathways connecting global trade with chronic disease. We then applied this framework to three key risk factors for chronic disease: unhealthy diets, alcohol, and tobacco. This led to specific 'product pathways', which can be further refined and used by health policy-makers to engage with their country's trade policy-makers around health impacts of ongoing trade treaty negotiations, and by researchers to continue refining an evidence base on how global trade is affecting patterns of chronic disease. The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases is now rising on global policy agendas, highlighted by the UN Summit on Noncommunicable Diseases (September 2011). Briefs and declarations leading up to this Summit reference the role of globalization and trade in the spread of risk factors for these diseases, but emphasis is placed on interventions to change health behaviours and on voluntary corporate responsibility. The findings summarized in this article imply the need for a more concerted approach to regulate trade-related risk factors and thus more engagement between health and trade policy sectors within and between nations. An explicit recognition of the role of trade policies in the spread of noncommunicable disease risk factors should be a minimum outcome of the September 2011 Summit, with a commitment to ensure that future trade treaties do not increase such risks. PMID:21726434

Framing international trade and chronic disease.

PubMed

Labonté, Ronald; Mohindra, Katia S; Lencucha, Raphael

2011-07-04

There is an emerging evidence base that global trade is linked with the rise of chronic disease in many low and middle-income countries (LMICs). This linkage is associated, in part, with the global diffusion of unhealthy lifestyles and health damaging products posing a particular challenge to countries still facing high burdens of communicable disease. We developed a generic framework which depicts the determinants and pathways connecting global trade with chronic disease. We then applied this framework to three key risk factors for chronic disease: unhealthy diets, alcohol, and tobacco. This led to specific 'product pathways', which can be further refined and used by health policy-makers to engage with their country's trade policy-makers around health impacts of ongoing trade treaty negotiations, and by researchers to continue refining an evidence base on how global trade is affecting patterns of chronic disease. The prevention and treatment of chronic diseases is now rising on global policy agendas, highlighted by the UN Summit on Noncommunicable Diseases (September 2011). Briefs and declarations leading up to this Summit reference the role of globalization and trade in the spread of risk factors for these diseases, but emphasis is placed on interventions to change health behaviours and on voluntary corporate responsibility. The findings summarized in this article imply the need for a more concerted approach to regulate trade-related risk factors and thus more engagement between health and trade policy sectors within and between nations. An explicit recognition of the role of trade policies in the spread of noncommunicable disease risk factors should be a minimum outcome of the September 2011 Summit, with a commitment to ensure that future trade treaties do not increase such risks.

Determinants of the spatiotemporal dynamics of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe: implications for real-time modelling.

PubMed

Merler, Stefano; Ajelli, Marco; Pugliese, Andrea; Ferguson, Neil M

2011-09-01

Influenza pandemics in the last century were characterized by successive waves and differences in impact and timing between different regions, for reasons not clearly understood. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic showed rapid global spread, but with substantial heterogeneity in timing within each hemisphere. Even within Europe substantial variation was observed, with the UK being unique in experiencing a major first wave of transmission in early summer and all other countries having a single major epidemic in the autumn/winter, with a West to East pattern of spread. Here we show that a microsimulation model, parameterised using data about H1N1pdm collected by the beginning of June 2009, explains the occurrence of two waves in UK and a single wave in the rest of Europe as a consequence of timing of H1N1pdm spread, fluxes of travels from US and Mexico, and timing of school vacations. The model provides a description of pandemic spread through Europe, depending on intra-European mobility patterns and socio-demographic structure of the European populations, which is in broad agreement with observed timing of the pandemic in different countries. Attack rates are predicted to depend on the socio-demographic structure, with age dependent attack rates broadly agreeing with available serological data. Results suggest that the observed heterogeneity can be partly explained by the between country differences in Europe: marked differences in school calendars, mobility patterns and sociodemographic structures. Moreover, higher susceptibility of children to infection played a key role in determining the epidemiology of the 2009 pandemic. Our work shows that it would have been possible to obtain a broad-brush prediction of timing of the European pandemic well before the autumn of 2009, much more difficult to achieve with simpler models or pre-pandemic parameterisation. This supports the use of models accounting for the structure of complex modern societies for giving insight to policy makers.

On wildfire complexity, simple models and environmental templates for fire size distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boer, M. M.; Bradstock, R.; Gill, M.; Sadler, R.

2012-12-01

Vegetation fires affect some 370 Mha annually. At global and continental scales, fire activity follows predictable spatiotemporal patterns driven by gradients and seasonal fluctuations of primary productivity and evaporative demand that set constraints for fuel accumulation rates and fuel dryness, two key ingredients of fire. At regional scales, fires are also known to affect some landscapes more than others and within landscapes to occur preferentially in some sectors (e.g. wind-swept ridges) and rarely in others (e.g. wet gullies). Another common observation is that small fires occur relatively frequent yet collectively burn far less country than relatively infrequent large fires. These patterns of fire activity are well known to management agencies and consistent with their (informal) models of how the basic drivers and constraints of fire (i.e. fuels, ignitions, weather) vary in time and space across the landscape. The statistical behaviour of these landscape fire patterns has excited the (academic) research community by showing some consistency with that of complex dynamical systems poised at a phase transition. The common finding that the frequency-size distributions of actual fires follow power laws that resemble those produced by simple cellular models from statistical mechanics has been interpreted as evidence that flammable landscapes operate as self-organising systems with scale invariant fire size distributions emerging 'spontaneously' from simple rules of contagious fire spread and a strong feedback between fires and fuel patterns. In this paper we argue that the resemblance of simulated and actual fire size distributions is an example of equifinality, that is fires in model landscapes and actual landscapes may show similar statistical behaviour but this is reached by qualitatively different pathways or controlling mechanisms. We support this claim with two key findings regarding simulated fire spread mechanisms and fire-fuel feedbacks. Firstly, we demonstrate that the power law behaviour of fire size distributions in the widely used Drossel and Schwabl (1992) Forest Fire Model (FFM) is strictly conditional on simulating fire spread as a cell-to-cell contagion over a fixed distance; the invariant scaling of fire sizes breaks down under the slightest variation in that distance, suggesting that pattern formation in the FFM is irreconcilable with the reality of disparate rates and modes of fire spread observed in the field. Secondly, we review field evidence showing that fuel age effects on the probability of fire spread, a key assumption in simulation models like the FFM, do not generally apply across flammable environments. Finally, we explore alternative explanations for the formation of scale invariant fire sizes in real landscapes. Using observations from southern Australian forest regions we demonstrate that the spatiotemporal patterns of fuel dryness and magnitudes of fire driving weather events set strong environmental templates for regional fire size distributions.

Genetic networking of the Bemisia tabaci cryptic species complex reveals pattern of biological invasions.

PubMed

De Barro, Paul; Ahmed, Muhammad Z

2011-01-01

A challenge within the context of cryptic species is the delimitation of individual species within the complex. Statistical parsimony network analytics offers the opportunity to explore limits in situations where there are insufficient species-specific morphological characters to separate taxa. The results also enable us to explore the spread in taxa that have invaded globally. Using a 657 bp portion of mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 from 352 unique haplotypes belonging to the Bemisia tabaci cryptic species complex, the analysis revealed 28 networks plus 7 unconnected individual haplotypes. Of the networks, 24 corresponded to the putative species identified using the rule set devised by Dinsdale et al. (2010). Only two species proposed in Dinsdale et al. (2010) departed substantially from the structure suggested by the analysis. The analysis of the two invasive members of the complex, Mediterranean (MED) and Middle East - Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1), showed that in both cases only a small number of haplotypes represent the majority that have spread beyond the home range; one MEAM1 and three MED haplotypes account for >80% of the GenBank records. Israel is a possible source of the globally invasive MEAM1 whereas MED has two possible sources. The first is the eastern Mediterranean which has invaded only the USA, primarily Florida and to a lesser extent California. The second are western Mediterranean haplotypes that have spread to the USA, Asia and South America. The structure for MED supports two home range distributions, a Sub-Saharan range and a Mediterranean range. The MEAM1 network supports the Middle East - Asia Minor region. The network analyses show a high level of congruence with the species identified in a previous phylogenetic analysis. The analysis of the two globally invasive members of the complex support the view that global invasion often involve very small portions of the available genetic diversity.

Measuring landscape-scale spread and persistence of an invaded submerged plant community from airborne remote sensing.

PubMed

Santos, Maria J; Khanna, Shruti; Hestir, Erin L; Greenberg, Jonathan A; Ustin, Susan L

2016-09-01

Processes of spread and patterns of persistence of invasive species affect species and communities in the new environment. Predicting future rates of spread is of great interest for timely management decisions, but this depends on models that rely on understanding the processes of invasion and historic observations of spread and persistence. Unfortunately, the rates of spread and patterns of persistence are difficult to model or directly observe, especially when multiple rates of spread and diverse persistence patterns may be co-occurring over the geographic distribution of the invaded ecosystem. Remote sensing systematically acquires data over large areas at fine spatial and spectral resolutions over multiple time periods that can be used to quantify spread processes and persistence patterns. We used airborne imaging spectroscopy data acquired once a year for 5 years from 2004 to 2008 to map an invaded submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) community across 2220 km 2 of waterways in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA, and measured its spread rate and its persistence. Submerged aquatic vegetation covered 13-23 km 2 of the waterways (6-11%) every year. Yearly new growth accounted for 40-60% of the SAV area, ~50% of which survived to following year. Spread rates were overall negative and persistence decreased with time. From this dataset, we were able to identify both radial and saltatorial spread of the invaded SAV in the entire extent of the Delta over time. With both decreasing spread rate and persistence, it is possible that over time the invasion of this SAV community could decrease its ecological impact. A landscape-scale approach allows measurements of all invasion fronts and the spatial anisotropies associated with spread processes and persistence patterns, without spatial interpolation, at locations both proximate and distant to the focus of invasion at multiple points in time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The complex network of global cargo ship movements.

PubMed

Kaluza, Pablo; Kölzsch, Andrea; Gastner, Michael T; Blasius, Bernd

2010-07-06

Transportation networks play a crucial role in human mobility, the exchange of goods and the spread of invasive species. With 90 per cent of world trade carried by sea, the global network of merchant ships provides one of the most important modes of transportation. Here, we use information about the itineraries of 16 363 cargo ships during the year 2007 to construct a network of links between ports. We show that the network has several features that set it apart from other transportation networks. In particular, most ships can be classified into three categories: bulk dry carriers, container ships and oil tankers. These three categories do not only differ in the ships' physical characteristics, but also in their mobility patterns and networks. Container ships follow regularly repeating paths whereas bulk dry carriers and oil tankers move less predictably between ports. The network of all ship movements possesses a heavy-tailed distribution for the connectivity of ports and for the loads transported on the links with systematic differences between ship types. The data analysed in this paper improve current assumptions based on gravity models of ship movements, an important step towards understanding patterns of global trade and bioinvasion.

The complex network of global cargo ship movements

PubMed Central

Kaluza, Pablo; Kölzsch, Andrea; Gastner, Michael T.; Blasius, Bernd

2010-01-01

Transportation networks play a crucial role in human mobility, the exchange of goods and the spread of invasive species. With 90 per cent of world trade carried by sea, the global network of merchant ships provides one of the most important modes of transportation. Here, we use information about the itineraries of 16 363 cargo ships during the year 2007 to construct a network of links between ports. We show that the network has several features that set it apart from other transportation networks. In particular, most ships can be classified into three categories: bulk dry carriers, container ships and oil tankers. These three categories do not only differ in the ships' physical characteristics, but also in their mobility patterns and networks. Container ships follow regularly repeating paths whereas bulk dry carriers and oil tankers move less predictably between ports. The network of all ship movements possesses a heavy-tailed distribution for the connectivity of ports and for the loads transported on the links with systematic differences between ship types. The data analysed in this paper improve current assumptions based on gravity models of ship movements, an important step towards understanding patterns of global trade and bioinvasion. PMID:20086053

Local and global epidemic outbreaks in populations moving in inhomogeneous environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buscarino, Arturo; Fortuna, Luigi; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro

2014-10-01

We study disease spreading in a system of agents moving in a space where the force of infection is not homogeneous. Agents are random walkers that additionally execute long-distance jumps, and the plane in which they move is divided into two regions where the force of infection takes different values. We show the onset of a local epidemic threshold and a global one and explain them in terms of mean-field approximations. We also elucidate the critical role of the agent velocity, jump probability, and density parameters in achieving the conditions for local and global outbreaks. Finally, we show that the results are independent of the specific microscopic rules adopted for agent motion, since a similar behavior is also observed for the distribution of agent velocity based on a truncated power law, which is a model often used to fit real data on motion patterns of animals and humans.

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health.

PubMed

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy M; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken T D; Edmunds, W John; Frost, Simon D W; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, T Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Roberts, Mick G; Viboud, Cecile

2015-03-13

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Red brome (Bromus rubens subsp. madritensis) in North America: Possible modes for early introductions, subsequent spread

USGS Publications Warehouse

Salo, L.F.

2005-01-01

Although invasions by exotic plants have increased dramatically as human travel and commerce have increased, few have been comprehensively described. Understanding the patterns of invasive species spread over space and time will help guide management activities and policy. Tracing the earliest appearances of an exotic plant reveals likely sites of introduction, paving the way for genetic studies to quantify founder events and identify potential source populations. Red brome (Bromus madritensis subsp. rubens) is a Mediterranean winter annual grass that has invaded even relatively undisturbed areas of western North America, where it threatens native plant communities. This study used herbarium records and contemporary published accounts to trace the early introductions and subsequent spread of red brome in western North America. The results challenge the most frequently cited sources describing the early history of this grass and suggest three possible modes for early introductions: the California Gold Rush and Central Valley wheat, southern California shipping, and northern California sheep. Subsequent periods of most rapid spread into new areas, from 1930 to 1942, and of greatest spread into new regions, during the past 50 years, coincide with warm Pacific Decadal Oscillation regimes, which are linked to increased winter precipitation in the southwestern USA and northern Mexico. Global environmental change, including increased atmospheric CO2 levels and N deposition, may be contributing to the success of red brome, relative to native species.

Dielectric fluid directional spreading under the action of corona discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Shangru; Liu, Jie; Hu, Qun; Jiang, Teng; Yang, Jinchu; Liu, Sheng; Zheng, Huai

2018-01-01

Liquid spreading is a very common nature phenomenon and of significant importance for a broad range of applications. In this study, a dielectric fluid directional spreading phenomenon is presented. Under the action of corona discharge, a dielectric fluid, here a typical silicone directionally spreads along conductive patterns on conductive/nonconductive substrates. Directional spreading behaviors of silicone were experimentally observed on different conductive patterns in detail. Spreading speeds were analyzed at different driving voltages, which induced the corona discharge. The presented phenomenon may be useful to inspire several techniques of manipulating liquid transportation and fabricating micropatterns.

Bursty communication patterns facilitate spreading in a threshold-based epidemic dynamics.

PubMed

Takaguchi, Taro; Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

2013-01-01

Records of social interactions provide us with new sources of data for understanding how interaction patterns affect collective dynamics. Such human activity patterns are often bursty, i.e., they consist of short periods of intense activity followed by long periods of silence. This burstiness has been shown to affect spreading phenomena; it accelerates epidemic spreading in some cases and slows it down in other cases. We investigate a model of history-dependent contagion. In our model, repeated interactions between susceptible and infected individuals in a short period of time is needed for a susceptible individual to contract infection. We carry out numerical simulations on real temporal network data to find that bursty activity patterns facilitate epidemic spreading in our model.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

[Globalization and infectious diseases].

PubMed

Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

2011-01-01

Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

fMRI orientation decoding in V1 does not require global maps or globally coherent orientation stimuli.

PubMed

Alink, Arjen; Krugliak, Alexandra; Walther, Alexander; Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus

2013-01-01

The orientation of a large grating can be decoded from V1 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, even at low resolution (3-mm isotropic voxels). This finding has suggested that columnar-level neuronal information might be accessible to fMRI at 3T. However, orientation decodability might alternatively arise from global orientation-preference maps. Such global maps across V1 could result from bottom-up processing, if the preferences of V1 neurons were biased toward particular orientations (e.g., radial from fixation, or cardinal, i.e., vertical or horizontal). Global maps could also arise from local recurrent or top-down processing, reflecting pre-attentive perceptual grouping, attention spreading, or predictive coding of global form. Here we investigate whether fMRI orientation decoding with 2-mm voxels requires (a) globally coherent orientation stimuli and/or (b) global-scale patterns of V1 activity. We used opposite-orientation gratings (balanced about the cardinal orientations) and spirals (balanced about the radial orientation), along with novel patch-swapped variants of these stimuli. The two stimuli of a patch-swapped pair have opposite orientations everywhere (like their globally coherent parent stimuli). However, the two stimuli appear globally similar, a patchwork of opposite orientations. We find that all stimulus pairs are robustly decodable, demonstrating that fMRI orientation decoding does not require globally coherent orientation stimuli. Furthermore, decoding remained robust after spatial high-pass filtering for all stimuli, showing that fine-grained components of the fMRI patterns reflect visual orientations. Consistent with previous studies, we found evidence for global radial and vertical preference maps in V1. However, these were weak or absent for patch-swapped stimuli, suggesting that global preference maps depend on globally coherent orientations and might arise through recurrent or top-down processes related to the perception of global form.

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region

PubMed Central

Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L.; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T.; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J.

2013-01-01

Background Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Methodology/Principal Findings Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. Conclusions/Significance To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide. PMID:23805195

Spatiotemporal Phylogenetic Analysis and Molecular Characterisation of Infectious Bursal Disease Viruses Based on the VP2 Hyper-Variable Region.

PubMed

Alfonso-Morales, Abdulahi; Martínez-Pérez, Orlando; Dolz, Roser; Valle, Rosa; Perera, Carmen L; Bertran, Kateri; Frías, Maria T; Majó, Natàlia; Ganges, Llilianne; Pérez, Lester J

2013-01-01

Infectious bursal disease is a highly contagious and acute viral disease caused by the infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV); it affects all major poultry producing areas of the world. The current study was designed to rigorously measure the global phylogeographic dynamics of IBDV strains to gain insight into viral population expansion as well as the emergence, spread and pattern of the geographical structure of very virulent IBDV (vvIBDV) strains. Sequences of the hyper-variable region of the VP2 (HVR-VP2) gene from IBDV strains isolated from diverse geographic locations were obtained from the GenBank database; Cuban sequences were obtained in the current work. All sequences were analysed by Bayesian phylogeographic analysis, implemented in the Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis Sampling Trees (BEAST), Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) and Spatial Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Evolutionary Dynamics (SPREAD) software packages. Selection pressure on the HVR-VP2 was also assessed. The phylogeographic association-trait analysis showed that viruses sampled from individual countries tend to cluster together, suggesting a geographic pattern for IBDV strains. Spatial analysis from this study revealed that strains carrying sequences that were linked to increased virulence of IBDV appeared in Iran in 1981 and spread to Western Europe (Belgium) in 1987, Africa (Egypt) around 1990, East Asia (China and Japan) in 1993, the Caribbean Region (Cuba) by 1995 and South America (Brazil) around 2000. Selection pressure analysis showed that several codons in the HVR-VP2 region were under purifying selection. To our knowledge, this work is the first study applying the Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction approach to analyse the emergence and spread of vvIBDV strains worldwide.

Modeling the Impact of Spatial Structure on Growth Dynamics of Invasive Plant Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, James T.; Johnson, Mark P.; Walshe, Ray

2013-07-01

Invasive nonindigenous plant species can have potentially serious detrimental effects on local ecosystems and, as a result, costly control efforts often have to be put in place to protect habitats. An example of an invasive problem on a global scale involves the salt marsh grass species from the genus Spartina. The spread of Spartina anglica in Europe and Asia has drawn much concern due to its ability to convert coastal habitats into cord-grass monocultures and to alter the native food webs. However, the patterns of invasion of Spartina species are amenable to spatially-explicit modeling strategies that take into account both temporal and spatio-temporal processes. In this study, an agent-based model of Spartina growth on a simulated mud flat environment was developed in order to study the effects of spatial pattern and initial seedling placement on the invasion dynamics of the population. The spatial pattern of an invasion plays a key role in the rate of spread of the species and understanding this can lead to significant cost savings when designing efficient control strategies. We present here a model framework that can be used to explicitly represent complex spatial and temporal patterns of invasion in order to be able to predict quantitatively the impact of these factors on invasion dynamics. This would be a useful tool for assessing eradication strategies and choosing optimal control solutions in order to be able to minimize future control costs.

Exploring the Complex Pattern of Information Spreading in Online Blog Communities

PubMed Central

Pei, Sen; Muchnik, Lev; Tang, Shaoting; Zheng, Zhiming; Makse, Hernán A.

2015-01-01

Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors. PMID:25985081

Exploring the complex pattern of information spreading in online blog communities.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Muchnik, Lev; Tang, Shaoting; Zheng, Zhiming; Makse, Hernán A

2015-01-01

Information spreading in online social communities has attracted tremendous attention due to its utmost practical values in applications. Despite that several individual-level diffusion data have been investigated, we still lack the detailed understanding of the spreading pattern of information. Here, by comparing information flows and social links in a blog community, we find that the diffusion processes are induced by three different spreading mechanisms: social spreading, self-promotion and broadcast. Although numerous previous studies have employed epidemic spreading models to simulate information diffusion, we observe that such models fail to reproduce the realistic diffusion pattern. In respect to users behaviors, strikingly, we find that most users would stick to one specific diffusion mechanism. Moreover, our observations indicate that the social spreading is not only crucial for the structure of diffusion trees, but also capable of inducing more subsequent individuals to acquire the information. Our findings suggest new directions for modeling of information diffusion in social systems, and could inform design of efficient propagation strategies based on users behaviors.

Kinetics of Social Contagion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Zhongyuan; Iñiguez, Gerardo; Karsai, Márton; Kertész, János

2015-11-01

Diffusion of information, behavioral patterns or innovations follows diverse pathways depending on a number of conditions, including the structure of the underlying social network, the sensitivity to peer pressure and the influence of media. Here we study analytically and by simulations a general model that incorporates threshold mechanism capturing sensitivity to peer pressure, the effect of "immune" nodes who never adopt, and a perpetual flow of external information. While any constant, nonzero rate of dynamically introduced spontaneous adopters leads to global spreading, the kinetics by which the asymptotic state is approached shows rich behavior. In particular, we find that, as a function of the immune node density, there is a transition from fast to slow spreading governed by entirely different mechanisms. This transition happens below the percolation threshold of network fragmentation, and has its origin in the competition between cascading behavior induced by adopters and blocking due to immune nodes. This change is accompanied by a percolation transition of the induced clusters.

Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.

PubMed

Madsen, Marianne Sloth; Langen, Peter L; Boberg, Fredrik; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

2017-11-28

Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible patterns of change on global but also on regional scales. We point out that similar inconsistencies occur in impact analyses relying on multimodel information extracted using statistics at the regional scale, for example, when a subset of CMIP models is selected to represent regional model spread. Consequently, the risk of unwanted impacts may be overestimated at larger scales as climate change impacts will never be realized as the worst (or best) case everywhere.

Hydrothermal plumes over spreading-center axes: Global distributions and geological inferences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Edward T.; German, Christopher R.; Elderfield, Henry

Seafloor hydrothermal circulation is the principal agent of energy and mass exchange between the ocean and the earth's crust. Discharging fluids cool hot rock, construct mineral deposits, nurture biological communities, alter deep-sea mixing and circulation patterns, and profoundly influence ocean chemistry and biology. Although the active discharge orifices themselves cover only a minuscule percentage of the ridge-axis seafloor, the investigation and quantification of their effects is enhanced as a consequence of the mixing process that forms hydrothermal plumes. Hydrothermal fluids discharged from vents are rapidly diluted with ambient seawater by factors of 104-105 [Lupton et al., 1985]. During dilution, the mixture rises tens to hundreds of meters to a level of neutral buoyancy, eventually spreading laterally as a distinct hydrographic and chemical layer with a spatial scale of tens to thousands of kilometers [e.g., Lupton and Craig, 1981; Baker and Massoth, 1987; Speer and Rona, 1989].

A Systematic Review of the Comparative Epidemiology of Avian and Human Influenza A H5N1 and H7N9 - Lessons and Unanswered Questions.

PubMed

Bui, C; Bethmont, A; Chughtai, A A; Gardner, L; Sarkar, S; Hassan, S; Seale, H; MacIntyre, C R

2016-12-01

The aim of this work was to explore the comparative epidemiology of influenza viruses, H5N1 and H7N9, in both bird and human populations. Specifically, the article examines similarities and differences between the two viruses in their genetic characteristics, distribution patterns in human and bird populations and postulated mechanisms of global spread. In summary, H5N1 is pathogenic in birds, while H7N9 is not. Yet both have caused sporadic human cases, without evidence of sustained, human-to-human spread. The number of H7N9 human cases in the first year following its emergence far exceeded that of H5N1 over the same time frame. Despite the higher incidence of H7N9, the spatial distribution of H5N1 within a comparable time frame is considerably greater than that of H7N9, both within China and globally. The pattern of spread of H5N1 in humans and birds around the world is consistent with spread through wild bird migration and poultry trade activities. In contrast, human cases of H7N9 and isolations of H7N9 in birds and the environment have largely occurred in a number of contiguous provinces in south-eastern China. Although rates of contact with birds appear to be similar in H5N1 and H7N9 cases, there is a predominance of incidental contact reported for H7N9 as opposed to close, high-risk contact for H5N1. Despite the high number of human cases of H7N9 and the assumed transmission being from birds, the corresponding level of H7N9 virus in birds in surveillance studies has been low, particularly in poultry farms. H7N9 viruses are also diversifying at a much greater rate than H5N1 viruses. Analyses of certain H7N9 strains demonstrate similarities with engineered transmissible H5N1 viruses which make it more adaptable to the human respiratory tract. These differences in the human and bird epidemiology of H5N1 and H7N9 raise unanswered questions as to how H7N9 has spread, which should be investigated further. © 2015 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

A study of design approach of spreading schemes for viral marketing based on human dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jianmei; Zhuang, Dong; Xie, Weicong; Chen, Guangrong

2013-12-01

Before launching a real viral marketing campaign, it is needed to design a spreading scheme by simulations. Based on a categorization of spreading patterns in real world and models, we point out that the existing research (especially Yang et al. (2010) Ref. [16]) implicitly assume that if a user decides to post a received message (is activated), he/she will take the reposting action promptly (Prompt Action After Activation, or PAAA). After a careful analysis on a real dataset however, it is found that the observed time differences between action and activation exhibit a heavy-tailed distribution. A simulation model for heavy-tailed pattern is then proposed and performed. Similarities and differences of spreading processes between the heavy-tailed and PAAA patterns are analyzed. Consequently, a more practical design approach of spreading scheme for viral marketing on QQ platform is proposed. The design approach can be extended and applied to the contexts of non-heavy-tailed pattern, and viral marketing on other instant messaging platforms.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread. PMID:28948096

Global stability of a two-mediums rumor spreading model with media coverage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang'an; Wang, Li; Song, Guoxiang

2017-09-01

Rumor spreading is a typical form of social communication and plays a significant role in social life, and media coverage has a great influence on the spread of rumor. In this paper, we present a new model with two media coverage to investigate the impact of the different mediums on rumor spreading. Then, we calculate the equilibria of the model and construct the reproduction number ℜ0. And we prove the global asymptotic stability of equilibria by using Lyapunov functions. Finally, we can conclude that the transition rate of the ignorants between two mediums has a direct effect on the scale of spreaders, and different media coverage has significant effects on the dynamics behaviors of rumor spreading.

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Epidemic spreading and global stability of an SIS model with an infective vector on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Huiyan; Fu, Xinchu

2015-10-01

In this paper, we present a new SIS model with delay on scale-free networks. The model is suitable to describe some epidemics which are not only transmitted by a vector but also spread between individuals by direct contacts. In view of the biological relevance and real spreading process, we introduce a delay to denote average incubation period of disease in a vector. By mathematical analysis, we obtain the epidemic threshold and prove the global stability of equilibria. The simulation shows the delay will effect the epidemic spreading. Finally, we investigate and compare two major immunization strategies, uniform immunization and targeted immunization.

Morphological Diversity of the Colony Produced by Bacteria Proteus mirabilis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakahara, Akio; Shimada, Yuji; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Matsushita, Mitsugu; Matsuyama, Tohey

1996-08-01

Morphological changes of colonies have been investigatedfor a bacterial strain of Proteus mirabilis, which is a famous speciesfor producing concentric-ring-like colonies. It was found that colony patterns can be classified into three types,i.e., cyclic spreading, diffusion-limited growth (DLA-like)and three-dimensional growth (inside the agar medium) patterns. Cyclic spreading patterns can further be classifiedinto three subgroups, i.e., concentric-ring, homogeneous and spatiotemporal patterns. These subgroups were classified by examining the development of colony structure after colonies spread all over petri-dishes. Comparison of the results with thoseof another bacterial species Bacillus subtilis is also discussed.

Epidemic spreading on hierarchical geographical networks with mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik; Wang, Bing-Hong

2014-05-01

Hierarchical geographical traffic networks are critical for our understanding of scaling laws in human trajectories. Here, we investigate the susceptible-infected epidemic process evolving on hierarchical networks in which agents randomly walk along the edges and establish contacts in network nodes. We employ a metapopulation modeling framework that allows us to explore the contagion spread patterns in relation to multi-scale mobility behaviors. A series of computer simulations revealed that a shifted power-law-like negative relationship between the peak timing of epidemics τ0 and population density, and a logarithmic positive relationship between τ0 and the network size, can both be explained by the gradual enlargement of fluctuations in the spreading process. We employ a semi-analytical method to better understand the nature of these relationships and the role of pertinent demographic factors. Additionally, we provide a quantitative discussion of the efficiency of a border screening procedure in delaying epidemic outbreaks on hierarchical networks, yielding a rather limited feasibility of this mitigation strategy but also its non-trivial dependence on population density, infector detectability, and the diversity of the susceptible region. Our results suggest that the interplay between the human spatial dynamics, network topology, and demographic factors can have important consequences for the global spreading and control of infectious diseases. These findings provide novel insights into the combined effects of human mobility and the organization of geographical networks on spreading processes, with important implications for both epidemiological research and health policy.

Strain release along ocean transform faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, L. M.

A global study of the nature of seismic rupture along oceanic transform faults (TFs) is presented, and many aspects of fault behavior and Mid-Ocean Ridge processes are discussed. A classification of TF earthquakes is developed based on their relative excitation of short period body waves to long period surface waves. Since the ways in which transform faults release their accumulated strain varies, for more than 50 earthquakes occurring on 30 TFs since 1963 form the database for a comparison of rupture processes. The variation of TF rupture processes is not related to spreading rate or TF offset. A study of seismicity of the Eltanin Fracture Zone system shows that unlike many TFs, the Eltanin FZ realizes more than 90% of its slip aseismically. This identifies a major portion of plate boundary whose motion persists undetected by seismic instruments. The global variations in rupture patterns are discussed in terms of current models of fault behavior. The versatility of the asperity model accommodates the entire range of observed patterns. Variations in physical properties within TF contact zones (asperities) are documented in the petrology and geochemistry of rocks from ophiolite sections and TFs.

A camera-phone based study reveals erratic eating pattern and disrupted daily eating-fasting cycle among adults in India.

PubMed

Gupta, Neelu Jain; Kumar, Vinod; Panda, Satchidananda

2017-01-01

The daily rhythm of feeding-fasting and meal-timing are emerging as important determinants of health. Circadian rhythm research in animal models and retrospective analyses of human nutrition data have shown that reduced length of overnight fasting or increased late night eating increases risk for metabolic diseases including obesity and diabetes. However, the daily rhythm in eating pattern in humans is rarely measured. Traditional methods to collect nutrition information through food diary and food log pay little attention to the timing of eating which may also change from day to day. We adopted a novel cell-phone based approach to longitudinally record all events of food and beverage intake in adults. In a feasibility study daily food-eating patterns of 93 healthy individuals were recorded for 21 days using camera phones. Analysis of the daily eating patterns of these individuals indicates deviation from conventional assumption that people eat three meals-a-day within a 12 h interval. We found that eating events are widespread throughout the day, with <30% of calories consumed before noon and >30% consumed in evening and late night hours. There was little difference in eating pattern between weekdays and weekends. In this cohort more than 50% of people spread their caloric intake events over 15 h or longer. One decile of the cohort who were spouses of shift-workers or had flexible work schedule spread their caloric intake over 20 h. Although the nutrition quality and diversity of food consumed is different between South-East Asian and Western countries, such overall disruption of daily eating-fasting rhythm is similar. Therefore, in view of hypothesis that disrupted daily eating pattern may contribute to the global increase in metabolic diseases and modification of daily eating pattern is a potential modifiable behavior to contain these diseases, monitoring eating pattern is an important aspect of lifestyle.

A decade of plague in Mahajanga, Madagascar: insights into the global maritime spread of pandemic plague.

PubMed

Vogler, Amy J; Chan, Fabien; Nottingham, Roxanne; Andersen, Genevieve; Drees, Kevin; Beckstrom-Sternberg, Stephen M; Wagner, David M; Chanteau, Suzanne; Keim, Paul

2013-02-12

A cluster of human plague cases occurred in the seaport city of Mahajanga, Madagascar, from 1991 to 1999 following 62 years with no evidence of plague, which offered insights into plague pathogen dynamics in an urban environment. We analyzed a set of 44 Mahajanga isolates from this 9-year outbreak, as well as an additional 218 Malagasy isolates from the highland foci. We sequenced the genomes of four Mahajanga strains, performed whole-genome sequence single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) discovery on those strains, screened the discovered SNPs, and performed a high-resolution 43-locus multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis of the isolate panel. Twenty-two new SNPs were identified and defined a new phylogenetic lineage among the Malagasy isolates. Phylogeographic analysis suggests that the Mahajanga lineage likely originated in the Ambositra district in the highlands, spread throughout the northern central highlands, and was then introduced into and became transiently established in Mahajanga. Although multiple transfers between the central highlands and Mahajanga occurred, there was a locally differentiating and dominant subpopulation that was primarily responsible for the 1991-to-1999 Mahajanga outbreaks. Phylotemporal analysis of this Mahajanga subpopulation revealed a cycling pattern of diversity generation and loss that occurred during and after each outbreak. This pattern is consistent with severe interseasonal genetic bottlenecks along with large seasonal population expansions. The ultimate extinction of plague pathogens in Mahajanga suggests that, in this environment, the plague pathogen niche is tenuous at best. However, the temporary large pathogen population expansion provides the means for plague pathogens to disperse and become ecologically established in more suitable nonurban environments. Maritime spread of plague led to the global dissemination of this disease and affected the course of human history. Multiple historical plague waves resulted in massive human mortalities in three classical plague pandemics: Justinian (6th and 7th centuries), Middle Ages (14th to 17th centuries), and third (mid-1800s to the present). Key to these events was the pathogen's entry into new lands by "plague ships" via seaport cities. Although initial disease outbreaks in ports were common, they were almost never sustained for long and plague pathogens survived only if they could become established in ecologically suitable habitats. Although plague pathogens' ability to invade port cities has been essential for intercontinental spread, these regions have not proven to be a suitable long-term niche. The disease dynamics in port cities such as Mahajanga are thus critical to plague pathogen amplification and dispersal into new suitable ecological niches for the observed global long-term maintenance of plague pathogens.

Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

PubMed

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

Hybrid Epidemics—A Case Study on Computer Worm Conficker

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm’s spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm’s effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols. PMID:25978309

Sampling for Global Epidemic Models and the Topology of an International Airport Network

PubMed Central

Bobashev, Georgiy; Morris, Robert J.; Goedecke, D. Michael

2008-01-01

Mathematical models that describe the global spread of infectious diseases such as influenza, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and tuberculosis (TB) often consider a sample of international airports as a network supporting disease spread. However, there is no consensus on how many cities should be selected or on how to select those cities. Using airport flight data that commercial airlines reported to the Official Airline Guide (OAG) in 2000, we have examined the network characteristics of network samples obtained under different selection rules. In addition, we have examined different size samples based on largest flight volume and largest metropolitan populations. We have shown that although the bias in network characteristics increases with the reduction of the sample size, a relatively small number of areas that includes the largest airports, the largest cities, the most-connected cities, and the most central cities is enough to describe the dynamics of the global spread of influenza. The analysis suggests that a relatively small number of cities (around 200 or 300 out of almost 3000) can capture enough network information to adequately describe the global spread of a disease such as influenza. Weak traffic flows between small airports can contribute to noise and mask other means of spread such as the ground transportation. PMID:18776932

Global stability and optimal control of epidemic spreading on multiplex networks with nonlinear mutual interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Nan; Ding, Li; Liu, Yu-Jing; Hu, Ping

2018-07-01

In this paper, we consider two interacting pathogens spreading on multiplex networks. Each pathogen spreads only on its single layer, and different layers have the same individuals but different network topology. A state-dependent infectious rate is proposed to describe the nonlinear mutual interaction during the propagation of two pathogens. Then a novel epidemic spreading model incorporating treatment control strategy is established. We investigate the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points by using Dulac's criterion, Poincaré-Bendixson theorem and Lyapunov method. Furthermore, we discuss an optimal strategy to minimize the total number of the infected individuals and the cost associated with treatment control for both spreading of two pathogens. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to show the validity and efficiency of our results.

Dynamics Explorer measurements of particles, fields, and plasma drifts over a horse-collar auroral pattern

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharber, J. R.; Hones, E. W., Jr.; Heelis, R. A.; Craven, J. D.; Frank, L. A.; Maynard, N. C.; Slavin, J. A.; Birn, J.

1992-01-01

As shown from ground-based measurements and satellite-borne imagers, one type of global auroral pattern characteristic of quiet (usually northward IMF) intervals is that of a contracted but thickened emission region in which the dawn and dusk portions can spread poleward to very high latitudes, (the type of a pattern referred to as a 'horse-collar' aurora by Hones et al., 1989). In this report we use a DE data set to examine a case in which this horse-collar pattern was observed by the DE-1 auroral imager while at the same time the DE-2, at lower altitude, measured precipitating particles, electric and magnetic fields, and plasma drifts. There is close agreement between the optical signatures and the particle precipitation patterns. The particle, plasma, and field measurements made along the satellite track and the 2-D perspective of the imager provide a means of determining the configuration of convective flows in the high-latitude ionosphere during this interval of northward IMF. Recent mapping studies are used to relate the low-altitude observations to possible magnetospheric source regions.

Lithosperic rheology controls on oceanic spreading patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerya, T.

2012-04-01

Mid-ocean ridges sectioned by transform faults represent one of the most prominent surface expressions of terrestrial plate tectonics. A fundamental long standing problem of plate tectonics is how and why ridge-transform spreading patterns are formed and maintained. On the one hand, geometrical correspondence between mid-ocean ridges and respective rifted margins apparently suggests that many oceanic transform faults are inherited structures that persisted throughout the entire history of oceanic spreading. On the other hand, data from incipient oceanic spreading regions show that transform faults are not directly inherited from transverse rift structures and start to develop as or after oceanic spreading nucleate. Based on self-consistent 3D thermomechanical numerical model of oceanic spreading we demonstrate that only limited range of oceanic lithosphere rheologies can reproduce natural spreading patterns. In particular, spontaneous formation and long-term stability of orthogonal ridge-transform spreading pattern requires visco-brittle/plastic rheology of plates with strong dynamic weakening of spontaneously forming faults. Our, numerical models of incipient oceanic spreading demonstrate that one or several oceanic transform faults can form gradually within broad non-transform accommodation zones connecting initially offset spreading centers. Orientation of transform faults and spreading centers changes exponentially with time as the result of new oceanic crust growth. The resulting orthogonal ridge-transform system is established within few millions of years after the beginning of oceanic spreading. By its fundamental physical origin, this system is a crustal growth pattern governed by space accommodation and not a plate breakup pattern governed by stress distribution. It is demonstrated that the characteristic extension-parallel orientation of oceanic transform faults can be obtained from space accommodation criteria as a steady state orientation of a strike-slip fault sustaining in between simultaneously growing offset crustal segments. Numerical models also suggest that transform faults can develop at single straight ridge as the result of dynamical instability of constructive plate boundaries caused by weakening of forming brittle/plastic fractures. Boundary instability from asymmetric plate growth can spontaneously start in alternate directions along successive ridge sections; the resultant curved ridges become transform faults within a few million years. Offsets along the transform faults change continuously with time by asymmetric plate growth and discontinuously by ridge jumps. Degree of asymmetric plate accretion increases with increasing degree of brittle/plastic weakening. It is also strongly dependent on the brittle/plastic yielding criterion and is notably reduced in models with pressure-dependent brittle/plastic plate strength compared to models with pressure-independent strength.

Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation

PubMed Central

Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian

2018-01-01

The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007–2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the event of the emergence of a novel, human-to-human transmissible, virus. PMID:29324895

Adaptive developmental delay in Chagas disease vectors: an evolutionary ecology approach.

PubMed

Menu, Frédéric; Ginoux, Marine; Rajon, Etienne; Lazzari, Claudio R; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2010-05-25

The developmental time of vector insects is important in population dynamics, evolutionary biology, epidemiology and in their responses to global climatic change. In the triatomines (Triatominae, Reduviidae), vectors of Chagas disease, evolutionary ecology concepts, which may allow for a better understanding of their biology, have not been applied. Despite delay in the molting in some individuals observed in triatomines, no effort was made to explain this variability. We applied four methods: (1) an e-mail survey sent to 30 researchers with experience in triatomines, (2) a statistical description of the developmental time of eleven triatomine species, (3) a relationship between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability, (4) a mathematical optimization model of evolution of developmental delay (diapause). 85.6% of responses informed on prolonged developmental times in 5(th) instar nymphs, with 20 species identified with remarkable developmental delays. The developmental time analysis showed some degree of bi-modal pattern of the development time of the 5(th) instars in nine out of eleven species but no trend between development time pattern and climatic inter-annual variability was observed. Our optimization model predicts that the developmental delays could be due to an adaptive risk-spreading diapause strategy, only if survival throughout the diapause period and the probability of random occurrence of "bad" environmental conditions are sufficiently high. Developmental delay may not be a simple non-adaptive phenotypic plasticity in development time, and could be a form of adaptive diapause associated to a physiological mechanism related to the postponement of the initiation of reproduction, as an adaptation to environmental stochasticity through a spreading of risk (bet-hedging) strategy. We identify a series of parameters that can be measured in the field and laboratory to test this hypothesis. The importance of these findings is discussed in terms of global climatic change and epidemiological consequences.

Discovering significant evolution patterns from satellite image time series.

PubMed

Petitjean, François; Masseglia, Florent; Gançarski, Pierre; Forestier, Germain

2011-12-01

Satellite Image Time Series (SITS) provide us with precious information on land cover evolution. By studying these series of images we can both understand the changes of specific areas and discover global phenomena that spread over larger areas. Changes that can occur throughout the sensing time can spread over very long periods and may have different start time and end time depending on the location, which complicates the mining and the analysis of series of images. This work focuses on frequent sequential pattern mining (FSPM) methods, since this family of methods fits the above-mentioned issues. This family of methods consists of finding the most frequent evolution behaviors, and is actually able to extract long-term changes as well as short term ones, whenever the change may start and end. However, applying FSPM methods to SITS implies confronting two main challenges, related to the characteristics of SITS and the domain's constraints. First, satellite images associate multiple measures with a single pixel (the radiometric levels of different wavelengths corresponding to infra-red, red, etc.), which makes the search space multi-dimensional and thus requires specific mining algorithms. Furthermore, the non evolving regions, which are the vast majority and overwhelm the evolving ones, challenge the discovery of these patterns. We propose a SITS mining framework that enables discovery of these patterns despite these constraints and characteristics. Our proposal is inspired from FSPM and provides a relevant visualization principle. Experiments carried out on 35 images sensed over 20 years show the proposed approach makes it possible to extract relevant evolution behaviors.

Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Gonçalves, Bruno; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Vespignani, Alessandro

2009-12-22

Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework.

Horizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species.

PubMed

Baker, Kate S; Dallman, Timothy J; Field, Nigel; Childs, Tristan; Mitchell, Holly; Day, Martin; Weill, François-Xavier; Lefèvre, Sophie; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Hughes, Gwenda; Jenkins, Claire; Thomson, Nicholas

2018-04-13

Horizontal gene transfer has played a role in developing the global public health crisis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, the dynamics of AMR transfer through bacterial populations and its direct impact on human disease is poorly elucidated. Here, we study parallel epidemic emergences of multiple Shigella species, a priority AMR organism, in men who have sex with men to gain insight into AMR emergence and spread. Using genomic epidemiology, we show that repeated horizontal transfer of a single AMR plasmid among Shigella enhanced existing and facilitated new epidemics. These epidemic patterns contrasted with slighter, slower increases in disease caused by organisms with vertically inherited (chromosomally encoded) AMR. This demonstrates that horizontal transfer of AMR directly affects epidemiological outcomes of globally important AMR pathogens and highlights the need for integration of genomic analyses into all areas of AMR research, surveillance and management.

Leachate pollution management to overcome global climate change impact in Piyungan Landfill, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harjito; Suntoro; Gunawan, T.; Maskuri, M.

2018-03-01

Environmental problems associated with the landfill system are generated by domestic waste landfills, especially those with open dumping systems. In these systems, waste degrades and produces some gases, namely methane gas (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), which can cause global climate change. This research aimed at identifying the areas that experience groundwater pollution and the spread pattern of leachate movement to the vicinity as well as to develop a leachate management model. The Electricity Resistivity Tomography (ERT) survey is deployed to assess the distribution of electrical resistivity in the polluted areas. In this study, the groundwater contamination is at a very low in the aquifer zone, i.e., 3-9 Ωm. It is caused by the downward migration of leachate to water table that raises the ion concentration of groundwater. These ions will increase the electrical conductivity (EC), i.e., up to 1,284 μmhos/cm, and decrease the electrical resistivity. The leachate spreads westward and northward at a depth of 6-17 m (aquifer) with a thickness of pollution between 4 and11 m.The recommended landfill management model involves the installation of rainwater drainage, use of cover and baseliner made of waterproof materials, and massive waste treatment.

Parasite epidemiology in a changing world: can molecular phylogeography help us tell the wood from the trees?

PubMed

Morgan, E R; Clare, E L; Jefferies, R; Stevens, J R

2012-12-01

SUMMARY Molecular phylogeography has revolutionised our ability to infer past biogeographic events from cross-sectional data on current parasite populations. In ecological parasitology, this approach has been used to address fundamental questions concerning host-parasite co-evolution and geographic patterns of spread, and has raised many technical issues and problems of interpretation. For applied parasitologists, the added complexity inherent in adding population genetic structure to perceived parasite distributions can sometimes seem to cloud rather than clarify approaches to control. In this paper, we use case studies firstly to illustrate the potential extent of cryptic diversity in parasite and parasitoid populations, secondly to consider how anthropogenic influences including movement of domestic animals affect the geographic distribution and host associations of parasite genotypes, and thirdly to explore the applied relevance of these processes to parasites of socio-economic importance. The contribution of phylogeographic approaches to deeper understanding of parasite biology in these cases is assessed. Thus, molecular data on the emerging parasites Angiostrongylus vasorum in dogs and wild canids, and the myiasis-causing flies Lucilia spp. in sheep and Cochliomyia hominovorax in humans, lead to clear implications for control efforts to limit global spread. Broader applications of molecular phylogeography to understanding parasite distributions in an era of rapid global change are also discussed.

Revealing the dependence of cell spreading kinetics on its spreading morphology using microcontact printed fibronectin patterns

PubMed Central

Huang, Cheng-Kuang; Donald, Athene

2015-01-01

Since the dawn of in vitro cell cultures, how cells interact and proliferate within a given external environment has always been an important issue in the study of cell biology. It is now well known that mammalian cells typically exhibit a three-phase sigmoid spreading on encountering a substrate. To further this understanding, we examined the influence of cell shape towards the second rapid expansion phase of spreading. Specifically, 3T3 fibroblasts were seeded onto silicon elastomer films made from polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), and micro-contact printed with fibronectin stripes of various dimensions. PDMS is adopted in our study for its biocompatibility, its ease in producing very smooth surfaces, and in the fabrication of micro-contact printing stamps. The substrate patterns are compared with respect to their influence on cell spreading over time. Our studies reveal, during the early rapid expansion phase, 3T3 fibroblasts are found to spread radially following a law; meanwhile, they proliferated in a lengthwise fashion on the striped patterns, following a law. We account for the observed differences in kinetics through a simple geometric analysis which predicted similar trends. In particular, a t2 law for radial spreading cells, and a t1 law for lengthwise spreading cells. PMID:25551146

RESEARCH NOTE: Slow-ridge/hotspot interactions from global gravity, seismic tomography and 87Sr/86Sr isotope data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jean; Thirot, Jean-Louis; Noël, Olivier; Francheteau, Jean

1998-11-01

Among the mantle hotspots present under oceanic areas, a large number are located on-or close to-active oceanic ridges. This is especially true in the slow-spreading Atlantic and Indian oceans. The recent availability of worldwide gravity grids and the increasing coverage of geochemical data sets along active spreading centres allow a fruitful comparison of these data with global geoid and seismic tomography models, and allow one to study interactions between mantle plumes and active slow-spreading ridges. The observed correlations allow us to draw preliminary conclusions on the general links between surficial processes, which shape the detailed morphology of the ridge axes, and deeper processes, active in the upper mantle below the ridge axial domains as a whole. The interactions are first studied at the scale of the Atlantic (the Mid-Atlantic Ridge from Iceland to Bouvet Island) from the correlation between the zero-age free-air gravity anomaly, which reflects the zero-age depth of the ridge axis, and Sr isotopic ratios of ridge axis basalts. The study is then extended to a more global scale (the slow ridges from Iceland to the Gulf of Aden) by including geoid and upper-mantle tomography models. The interactions appear complex, ranging from the effect of large and very productive plumes, almost totally overprinting the long-wavelength segmentation pattern of the ridge, to that of weaker hotspots, barely marking some of the observables in the ridge axial domain. Intermediate cases are observed, in which hotspots of medium activity (or whose activity has gradually decreased) located at some distance from the ridge axis produce geophysical or geochemical signals whose variation along the axis can be correlated with the geometry of the plume head in the upper mantle. Such observations tend to preclude the use of a single hotspot/ridge interaction model and stress the need for additional observations in various plume/ridge configurations.

Epidemiology of arboviral infections.

PubMed

Ansari, M Z; Shope, R E

1994-01-01

To review the current state of knowledge regarding the epidemiology of arboviruses. Computerized literature searches, identification of papers through review of article bibliographies, and Yale Arbovirus Research Unit, USA. Articles documenting research pertaining to the epidemiology of arboviruses with emphasis on factors that increase or decrease the spread of these infections. The review articles were extracted independently by the authors. Arboviral infections are a global health problem accounting for significant morbidity and mortality in human and animal populations. They belong to the families Togaviridae, Flaviviridae, Bunyaviridae, Reoviridae, and Rhabdoviridae, and are transmitted to humans and domestic animals by the bite of infected arthropods. Rodents and birds are significant vertebrate hosts, while humans are usually not involved in the maintenance and spread of most arboviruses. Ecologic changes and human behavior are important in the spread of these infections. Clinical features range from mild fevers to fatal encephalitis. Surveillance, immunization, and vector control are important methods of prevention. It appears that the distribution and spread of arboviruses is greatly influenced by human behavior and ecologic changes in the environment. Awareness regarding these and other factors, such as travel history, history of bites of arthropods, concurrent epidemic pattern in the community, and knowledge of surveillance data are useful ways of identifying these infections. Future research may be directed toward methodical search for new arboviruses and their relation to human and animal disease.

Gradient induced liquid motion on laser structured black Si surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradisanos, I.; Fotakis, C.; Anastasiadis, S. H.; Stratakis, E.

2015-09-01

This letter reports on the femtosecond laser fabrication of gradient-wettability micro/nano-patterns on Si surfaces. The dynamics of directional droplet spreading on the surface tension gradients developed is systematically investigated and discussed. It is shown that microdroplets on the patterned surfaces spread at a maximum speed of 505 mm/s, which is the highest velocity demonstrated so far for liquid spreading on a surface tension gradient in ambient conditions. The application of the proposed laser patterning technique for the precise fabrication of surface tension gradients for open microfluidic systems, liquid management in fuel cells, and drug delivery is envisaged.

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

2016-12-01

The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

[Achromatic watercolor effect: about requirement of formation of sumi painting effect].

PubMed

Takashima, Midori

2008-10-01

The watercolor effect (Pinna, Brelstaff, & Spillmann, 2001) is a new color spreading phenomenon. Pinna et al. (2001) proposed that the watercolor effect is a new Gestalt factor because it determines figure-ground organization more strongly than classical Gestalt factors. We used achroriatic watercolor patterns and varied the lightness of the background and two border lines to study the relationship between the color spreading effect and figure-ground organization. The results demonstrated (a)a bidirectional color spreading phenomenon when the background lightness was between the two border-lines' lightness, and that (b) some patterns elicit only a color spreading effect without organization of figure-ground, while others elicit only figure-ground organization without a color spreading effect.

Genetic evidence for a worldwide chaotic dispersion pattern of the arbovirus vector, Aedes albopictus

PubMed Central

Manni, Mosè; Guglielmino, Carmela R.; Scolari, Francesca; Vega-Rúa, Anubis; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Somboon, Pradya; Lisa, Antonella; Savini, Grazia; Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gomulski, Ludvik M.; Malacrida, Anna R.

2017-01-01

Background Invasive species represent a global concern for their rapid spread and the possibility of infectious disease transmission. This is the case of the global invader Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito. This species is a vector of medically important arboviruses, notably chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV). The reconstruction of the complex colonization pattern of this mosquito has great potential for mitigating its spread and, consequently, disease risks. Methodology/Principal findings Classical population genetics analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approaches were combined to disentangle the demographic history of Aedes albopictus populations from representative countries in the Southeast Asian native range and in the recent and more recently colonized areas. In Southeast Asia, the low differentiation and the high co-ancestry values identified among China, Thailand and Japan indicate that, in the native range, these populations maintain high genetic connectivity, revealing their ancestral common origin. China appears to be the oldest population. Outside Southeast Asia, the invasion process in La Réunion, America and the Mediterranean Basin is primarily supported by a chaotic propagule distribution, which cooperates in maintaining a relatively high genetic diversity within the adventive populations. Conclusions/Significance From our data, it appears that independent and also trans-continental introductions of Ae. albopictus may have facilitated the rapid establishment of adventive populations through admixture of unrelated genomes. As a consequence, a great amount of intra-population variability has been detected, and it is likely that this variability may extend to the genetic mechanisms controlling vector competence. Thus, in the context of the invasion process of this mosquito, it is possible that both population ancestry and admixture contribute to create the conditions for the efficient transmission of arboviruses and for outbreak establishment. PMID:28135274

Genetic evidence for a worldwide chaotic dispersion pattern of the arbovirus vector, Aedes albopictus.

PubMed

Manni, Mosè; Guglielmino, Carmela R; Scolari, Francesca; Vega-Rúa, Anubis; Failloux, Anna-Bella; Somboon, Pradya; Lisa, Antonella; Savini, Grazia; Bonizzoni, Mariangela; Gomulski, Ludvik M; Malacrida, Anna R; Gasperi, Giuliano

2017-01-01

Invasive species represent a global concern for their rapid spread and the possibility of infectious disease transmission. This is the case of the global invader Aedes albopictus, the Asian tiger mosquito. This species is a vector of medically important arboviruses, notably chikungunya (CHIKV), dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV). The reconstruction of the complex colonization pattern of this mosquito has great potential for mitigating its spread and, consequently, disease risks. Classical population genetics analyses and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approaches were combined to disentangle the demographic history of Aedes albopictus populations from representative countries in the Southeast Asian native range and in the recent and more recently colonized areas. In Southeast Asia, the low differentiation and the high co-ancestry values identified among China, Thailand and Japan indicate that, in the native range, these populations maintain high genetic connectivity, revealing their ancestral common origin. China appears to be the oldest population. Outside Southeast Asia, the invasion process in La Réunion, America and the Mediterranean Basin is primarily supported by a chaotic propagule distribution, which cooperates in maintaining a relatively high genetic diversity within the adventive populations. From our data, it appears that independent and also trans-continental introductions of Ae. albopictus may have facilitated the rapid establishment of adventive populations through admixture of unrelated genomes. As a consequence, a great amount of intra-population variability has been detected, and it is likely that this variability may extend to the genetic mechanisms controlling vector competence. Thus, in the context of the invasion process of this mosquito, it is possible that both population ancestry and admixture contribute to create the conditions for the efficient transmission of arboviruses and for outbreak establishment.

Modelling the introduction and spread of non-native species: international trade and climate change drive ragweed invasion.

PubMed

Chapman, Daniel S; Makra, László; Albertini, Roberto; Bonini, Maira; Páldy, Anna; Rodinkova, Victoria; Šikoparija, Branko; Weryszko-Chmielewska, Elżbieta; Bullock, James M

2016-09-01

Biological invasions are a major driver of global change, for which models can attribute causes, assess impacts and guide management. However, invasion models typically focus on spread from known introduction points or non-native distributions and ignore the transport processes by which species arrive. Here, we developed a simulation model to understand and describe plant invasion at a continental scale, integrating repeated transport through trade pathways, unintentional release events and the population dynamics and local anthropogenic dispersal that drive subsequent spread. We used the model to simulate the invasion of Europe by common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia), a globally invasive plant that causes serious harm as an aeroallergen and crop weed. Simulations starting in 1950 accurately reproduced ragweed's current distribution, including the presence of records in climatically unsuitable areas as a result of repeated introduction. Furthermore, the model outputs were strongly correlated with spatial and temporal patterns of ragweed pollen concentrations, which are fully independent of the calibration data. The model suggests that recent trends for warmer summers and increased volumes of international trade have accelerated the ragweed invasion. For the latter, long distance dispersal because of trade within the invaded continent is highlighted as a key invasion process, in addition to import from the native range. Biosecurity simulations, whereby transport through trade pathways is halted, showed that effective control is only achieved by early action targeting all relevant pathways. We conclude that invasion models would benefit from integrating introduction processes (transport and release) with spread dynamics, to better represent propagule pressure from native sources as well as mechanisms for long-distance dispersal within invaded continents. Ultimately, such integration may facilitate better prediction of spatial and temporal variation in invasion risk and provide useful guidance for management strategies to reduce the impacts of invasion. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimal Design for Hetero-Associative Memory: Hippocampal CA1 Phase Response Curve and Spike-Timing-Dependent Plasticity

PubMed Central

Miyata, Ryota; Ota, Keisuke; Aonishi, Toru

2013-01-01

Recently reported experimental findings suggest that the hippocampal CA1 network stores spatio-temporal spike patterns and retrieves temporally reversed and spread-out patterns. In this paper, we explore the idea that the properties of the neural interactions and the synaptic plasticity rule in the CA1 network enable it to function as a hetero-associative memory recalling such reversed and spread-out spike patterns. In line with Lengyel’s speculation (Lengyel et al., 2005), we firstly derive optimally designed spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP) rules that are matched to neural interactions formalized in terms of phase response curves (PRCs) for performing the hetero-associative memory function. By maximizing object functions formulated in terms of mutual information for evaluating memory retrieval performance, we search for STDP window functions that are optimal for retrieval of normal and doubly spread-out patterns under the constraint that the PRCs are those of CA1 pyramidal neurons. The system, which can retrieve normal and doubly spread-out patterns, can also retrieve reversed patterns with the same quality. Finally, we demonstrate that purposely designed STDP window functions qualitatively conform to typical ones found in CA1 pyramidal neurons. PMID:24204822

The role of abiotic conditions in shaping the long-term patterns of a high-elevation Argentine ant invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, P.D.; Joe, S.M.; Medeiros, A.C.; Daehler, C.C.; Loope, L.L.

2005-01-01

Analysis of long-term patterns of invasion can reveal the importance of abiotic factors in influencing invasion dynamics, and can help predict future patterns of spread. In the case of the invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile), most prior studies have investigated this species' limitations in hot and dry climates. However, spatial and temporal patterns of spread involving two ant populations over the course of 30 years at a high elevation site in Hawaii suggest that cold and wet conditions have influenced both the ant's distribution and its rate of invasion. In Haleakala National Park on Maui, we found that a population invading at lower elevation is limited by increasing rainfall and presumably by associated decreasing temperatures. A second, higher elevation population has spread outward in all directions, but rates of spread in different directions appear to have been strongly influenced by differences in elevation and temperature. Patterns of foraging activity were strongly tied to soil temperatures, supporting the hypothesis that variation in temperature can influence rates of spread. Based on past patterns of spread, we predicted a total potential range that covers nearly 50% of the park and 75% of the park's subalpine habitats. We compared this rough estimate with point predictions derived from a degree-day model for Argentine ant colony reproduction, and found that the two independent predictions match closely when soil temperatures are used in the model. The cold, wet conditions that have influenced Argentine ant invasion at this site are likely to be influential at other locations in this species' current and future worldwide distribution. ?? 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of Venus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, R. J.; Grimm, R. E.; Malin, M. C.

1991-05-01

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (1) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (2) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (3) collapse of dynamic topography, and (4) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of Venus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Roger J.; Grimm, Robert E.; Malin, Michael C.

1991-01-01

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (1) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (2) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (3) collapse of dynamic topography, and (4) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

Hot-spot evolution and the global tectonics of venus.

PubMed

Phillips, R J; Grimm, R E; Malin, M C

1991-05-03

The global tectonics of Venus may be dominated by plumes rising from the mantle and impinging on the lithosphere, giving rise to hot spots. Global sea-floor spreading does not take place, but direct convective coupling of mantle flow fields to the lithosphere leads to regional-scale deformation and may allow lithospheric transport on a limited scale. A hot-spot evolutionary sequence comprises (i) a broad domal uplift resulting from a rising mantle plume, (ii) massive partial melting in the plume head and generation of a thickened crust or crustal plateau, (iii) collapse of dynamic topography, and (iv) creep spreading of the crustal plateau. Crust on Venus is produced by gradual vertical differentiation with little recycling rather than by the rapid horizontal creation and consumption characteristic of terrestrial sea-floor spreading.

Antibiotic resistance: What is so special about multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria?

PubMed Central

Exner, Martin; Bhattacharya, Sanjay; Christiansen, Bärbel; Gebel, Jürgen; Goroncy-Bermes, Peter; Hartemann, Philippe; Heeg, Peter; Ilschner, Carola; Kramer, Axel; Larson, Elaine; Merkens, Wolfgang; Mielke, Martin; Oltmanns, Peter; Ross, Birgit; Rotter, Manfred; Schmithausen, Ricarda Maria; Sonntag, Hans-Günther; Trautmann, Matthias

2017-01-01

In the past years infections caused by multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria have dramatically increased in all parts of the world. This consensus paper is based on presentations, subsequent discussions and an appraisal of current literature by a panel of international experts invited by the Rudolf Schülke Stiftung, Hamburg. It deals with the epidemiology and the inherent properties of Gram-negative bacteria, elucidating the patterns of the spread of antibiotic resistance, highlighting reservoirs as well as transmission pathways and risk factors for infection, mortality, treatment and prevention options as well as the consequences of their prevalence in livestock. Following a global, One Health approach and based on the evaluation of the existing knowledge about these pathogens, this paper gives recommendations for prevention and infection control measures as well as proposals for various target groups to tackle the threats posed by Gram-negative bacteria and prevent the spread and emergence of new antibiotic resistances. PMID:28451516

The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

PubMed

Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

2012-03-01

We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

Predictive study on the risk of malaria spreading due to global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ono, Masaji

Global warming will bring about a temperature elevation, and the habitat of vectors of infectious diseases, such as malaria and dengue fever, will spread into subtropical or temperate zone. The purpose of this study is to simulate the spreading of these diseases through reexamination of existing data and collection of some additional information by field survey. From these data, the author will establish the relationship between meteorological conditions, vector density and malaria occurrence. And then he will simulate and predict the malaria epidemics in case of temperature elevation in southeast Asia and Japan.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Oceanic ridges and transform faults: Their intersection angles and resistance to plate motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lachenbruch, A.H.; Thompson, G.A.

1972-01-01

The persistent near-orthogonal pattern formed by oceanic ridges and transform faults defies explanation in terms of rigid plates because it probably depends on the energy associated with deformation. For passive spreading, it is likely that the ridges and transforms adjust to a configuration offering minimum resistance to plate separation. This leads to a simple geometric model which yields conditions for the occurrence of transform faults and an aid to interpretation of structural patterns in the sea floor. Under reasonable assumptions, it is much more difficult for diverging plates to spread a kilometer of ridge than to slip a kilometer of transform fault, and the patterns observed at spreading centers might extend to lithospheric depths. Under these conditions, the resisting force at spreading centers could play a significant role in the dynamics of plate-tectonic systems. ?? 1972.

Insecticide-driven patterns of genetic variation in the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Martinique Island.

PubMed

Marcombe, Sébastien; Paris, Margot; Paupy, Christophe; Bringuier, Charline; Yebakima, André; Chandre, Fabrice; David, Jean-Philippe; Corbel, Vincent; Despres, Laurence

2013-01-01

Effective vector control is currently challenged worldwide by the evolution of resistance to all classes of chemical insecticides in mosquitoes. In Martinique, populations of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti have been intensively treated with temephos and deltamethrin insecticides over the last fifty years, resulting in heterogeneous levels of resistance across the island. Resistance spreading depends on standing genetic variation, selection intensity and gene flow among populations. To determine gene flow intensity, we first investigated neutral patterns of genetic variability in sixteen populations representative of the many environments found in Martinique and experiencing various levels of insecticide pressure, using 6 microsatellites. Allelic richness was lower in populations resistant to deltamethrin, and consanguinity was higher in populations resistant to temephos, consistent with a negative effect of insecticide pressure on neutral genetic diversity. The global genetic differentiation was low, suggesting high gene flow among populations, but significant structure was found, with a pattern of isolation-by-distance at the global scale. Then, we investigated adaptive patterns of divergence in six out of the 16 populations using 319 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Five SNP outliers displaying levels of genetic differentiation out of neutral expectations were detected, including the kdr-V1016I mutation in the voltage-gated sodium channel gene. Association tests revealed a total of seven SNPs associated with deltamethrin resistance. Six other SNPs were associated with temephos resistance, including two non-synonymous substitutions in an alkaline phosphatase and in a sulfotransferase respectively. Altogether, both neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic variation in mosquito populations appear to be largely driven by insecticide pressure in Martinique.

Pattern of spread and prognosis in lower limb-onset ALS

PubMed Central

TURNER, MARTIN R.; BROCKINGTON, ALICE; SCABER, JAKUB; HOLLINGER, HANNAH; MARSDEN, RACHAEL; SHAW, PAMELA J.; TALBOT, KEVIN

2011-01-01

Our objective was to establish the pattern of spread in lower limb-onset ALS (contra- versus ipsi-lateral) and its contribution to prognosis within a multivariate model. Pattern of spread was established in 109 sporadic ALS patients with lower limb-onset, prospectively recorded in Oxford and Sheffield tertiary clinics from 2001 to 2008. Survival analysis was by univariate Kaplan-Meier log-rank and multivariate Cox proportional hazards. Variables studied were time to next limb progression, site of next progression, age at symptom onset, gender, diagnostic latency and use of riluzole. Initial progression was either to the contralateral leg (76%) or ipsilateral arm (24%). Factors independently affecting survival were time to next limb progression, age at symptom onset, and diagnostic latency. Time to progression as a prognostic factor was independent of initial direction of spread. In a regression analysis of the deceased, overall survival from symptom onset approximated to two years plus the time interval for initial spread. In conclusion, rate of progression in lower limb-onset ALS is not influenced by whether initial spread is to the contralateral limb or ipsilateral arm. The time interval to this initial spread is a powerful factor in predicting overall survival, and could be used to facilitate decision-making and effective care planning. PMID:20001488

Recording, analysis, and interpretation of spreading depolarizations in neurointensive care: Review and recommendations of the COSBID research group.

PubMed

Dreier, Jens P; Fabricius, Martin; Ayata, Cenk; Sakowitz, Oliver W; William Shuttleworth, C; Dohmen, Christian; Graf, Rudolf; Vajkoczy, Peter; Helbok, Raimund; Suzuki, Michiyasu; Schiefecker, Alois J; Major, Sebastian; Winkler, Maren Kl; Kang, Eun-Jeung; Milakara, Denny; Oliveira-Ferreira, Ana I; Reiffurth, Clemens; Revankar, Gajanan S; Sugimoto, Kazutaka; Dengler, Nora F; Hecht, Nils; Foreman, Brandon; Feyen, Bart; Kondziella, Daniel; Friberg, Christian K; Piilgaard, Henning; Rosenthal, Eric S; Westover, M Brandon; Maslarova, Anna; Santos, Edgar; Hertle, Daniel; Sánchez-Porras, Renán; Jewell, Sharon L; Balança, Baptiste; Platz, Johannes; Hinzman, Jason M; Lückl, Janos; Schoknecht, Karl; Schöll, Michael; Drenckhahn, Christoph; Feuerstein, Delphine; Eriksen, Nina; Horst, Viktor; Bretz, Julia S; Jahnke, Paul; Scheel, Michael; Bohner, Georg; Rostrup, Egill; Pakkenberg, Bente; Heinemann, Uwe; Claassen, Jan; Carlson, Andrew P; Kowoll, Christina M; Lublinsky, Svetlana; Chassidim, Yoash; Shelef, Ilan; Friedman, Alon; Brinker, Gerrit; Reiner, Michael; Kirov, Sergei A; Andrew, R David; Farkas, Eszter; Güresir, Erdem; Vatter, Hartmut; Chung, Lee S; Brennan, K C; Lieutaud, Thomas; Marinesco, Stephane; Maas, Andrew Ir; Sahuquillo, Juan; Dahlem, Markus A; Richter, Frank; Herreras, Oscar; Boutelle, Martyn G; Okonkwo, David O; Bullock, M Ross; Witte, Otto W; Martus, Peter; van den Maagdenberg, Arn Mjm; Ferrari, Michel D; Dijkhuizen, Rick M; Shutter, Lori A; Andaluz, Norberto; Schulte, André P; MacVicar, Brian; Watanabe, Tomas; Woitzik, Johannes; Lauritzen, Martin; Strong, Anthony J; Hartings, Jed A

2017-05-01

Spreading depolarizations (SD) are waves of abrupt, near-complete breakdown of neuronal transmembrane ion gradients, are the largest possible pathophysiologic disruption of viable cerebral gray matter, and are a crucial mechanism of lesion development. Spreading depolarizations are increasingly recorded during multimodal neuromonitoring in neurocritical care as a causal biomarker providing a diagnostic summary measure of metabolic failure and excitotoxic injury. Focal ischemia causes spreading depolarization within minutes. Further spreading depolarizations arise for hours to days due to energy supply-demand mismatch in viable tissue. Spreading depolarizations exacerbate neuronal injury through prolonged ionic breakdown and spreading depolarization-related hypoperfusion (spreading ischemia). Local duration of the depolarization indicates local tissue energy status and risk of injury. Regional electrocorticographic monitoring affords even remote detection of injury because spreading depolarizations propagate widely from ischemic or metabolically stressed zones; characteristic patterns, including temporal clusters of spreading depolarizations and persistent depression of spontaneous cortical activity, can be recognized and quantified. Here, we describe the experimental basis for interpreting these patterns and illustrate their translation to human disease. We further provide consensus recommendations for electrocorticographic methods to record, classify, and score spreading depolarizations and associated spreading depressions. These methods offer distinct advantages over other neuromonitoring modalities and allow for future refinement through less invasive and more automated approaches.

Recording, analysis, and interpretation of spreading depolarizations in neurointensive care: Review and recommendations of the COSBID research group

PubMed Central

Fabricius, Martin; Ayata, Cenk; Sakowitz, Oliver W; William Shuttleworth, C; Dohmen, Christian; Graf, Rudolf; Vajkoczy, Peter; Helbok, Raimund; Suzuki, Michiyasu; Schiefecker, Alois J; Major, Sebastian; Winkler, Maren KL; Kang, Eun-Jeung; Milakara, Denny; Oliveira-Ferreira, Ana I; Reiffurth, Clemens; Revankar, Gajanan S; Sugimoto, Kazutaka; Dengler, Nora F; Hecht, Nils; Foreman, Brandon; Feyen, Bart; Kondziella, Daniel; Friberg, Christian K; Piilgaard, Henning; Rosenthal, Eric S; Westover, M Brandon; Maslarova, Anna; Santos, Edgar; Hertle, Daniel; Sánchez-Porras, Renán; Jewell, Sharon L; Balança, Baptiste; Platz, Johannes; Hinzman, Jason M; Lückl, Janos; Schoknecht, Karl; Schöll, Michael; Drenckhahn, Christoph; Feuerstein, Delphine; Eriksen, Nina; Horst, Viktor; Bretz, Julia S; Jahnke, Paul; Scheel, Michael; Bohner, Georg; Rostrup, Egill; Pakkenberg, Bente; Heinemann, Uwe; Claassen, Jan; Carlson, Andrew P; Kowoll, Christina M; Lublinsky, Svetlana; Chassidim, Yoash; Shelef, Ilan; Friedman, Alon; Brinker, Gerrit; Reiner, Michael; Kirov, Sergei A; Andrew, R David; Farkas, Eszter; Güresir, Erdem; Vatter, Hartmut; Chung, Lee S; Brennan, KC; Lieutaud, Thomas; Marinesco, Stephane; Maas, Andrew IR; Sahuquillo, Juan; Dahlem, Markus A; Richter, Frank; Herreras, Oscar; Boutelle, Martyn G; Okonkwo, David O; Bullock, M Ross; Witte, Otto W; Martus, Peter; van den Maagdenberg, Arn MJM; Ferrari, Michel D; Dijkhuizen, Rick M; Shutter, Lori A; Andaluz, Norberto; Schulte, André P; MacVicar, Brian; Watanabe, Tomas; Woitzik, Johannes; Lauritzen, Martin; Strong, Anthony J; Hartings, Jed A

2016-01-01

Spreading depolarizations (SD) are waves of abrupt, near-complete breakdown of neuronal transmembrane ion gradients, are the largest possible pathophysiologic disruption of viable cerebral gray matter, and are a crucial mechanism of lesion development. Spreading depolarizations are increasingly recorded during multimodal neuromonitoring in neurocritical care as a causal biomarker providing a diagnostic summary measure of metabolic failure and excitotoxic injury. Focal ischemia causes spreading depolarization within minutes. Further spreading depolarizations arise for hours to days due to energy supply-demand mismatch in viable tissue. Spreading depolarizations exacerbate neuronal injury through prolonged ionic breakdown and spreading depolarization-related hypoperfusion (spreading ischemia). Local duration of the depolarization indicates local tissue energy status and risk of injury. Regional electrocorticographic monitoring affords even remote detection of injury because spreading depolarizations propagate widely from ischemic or metabolically stressed zones; characteristic patterns, including temporal clusters of spreading depolarizations and persistent depression of spontaneous cortical activity, can be recognized and quantified. Here, we describe the experimental basis for interpreting these patterns and illustrate their translation to human disease. We further provide consensus recommendations for electrocorticographic methods to record, classify, and score spreading depolarizations and associated spreading depressions. These methods offer distinct advantages over other neuromonitoring modalities and allow for future refinement through less invasive and more automated approaches. PMID:27317657

Phylogeography of Coxsackievirus A16 Reveals Global Transmission Pathways and Recent Emergence and Spread of a Recombinant Genogroup.

PubMed

Hassel, Chervin; Mirand, Audrey; Farkas, Agnes; Diedrich, Sabine; Huemer, Hartwig P; Peigue-Lafeuille, Hélène; Archimbaud, Christine; Henquell, Cécile; Bailly, Jean-Luc

2017-09-15

Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16; Picornaviridae ) is an enterovirus (EV) type associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. To investigate the spatial spread of CV-A16, we used viral sequence data sampled during a prospective sentinel surveillance of HFMD in France (2010 to 2014) and phylogenetic reconstruction. A data set of 168 VP1 sequences was assembled with 416 publicly available sequences of various geographic origins. The CV-A16 sequences reported were assigned to two clades, genogroup B and a previously uncharacterized clade D. The time origins of clades B and D were assessed in 1978 (1973 to 1981) and 2004 (2001 to 2007), respectively. The shape of the global CV-A16 phylogeny indicated worldwide cocirculation of genetically distinct virus lineages over time and across geographic regions. Phylogenetic tree topologies and Bayes factor analysis indicated virus migration. Virus transportation events in clade B within Europe and Asia and between countries of the two geographic regions were assessed. The sustained transmission of clade D viruses over 4 years was analyzed at the township level in France and traced back to Peru in South America. Comparative genomics provided evidence of recombination between CV-A16 clades B and D and suggested an intertype recombinant origin for clade D. Time-resolved phylogenies and HFMD surveillance data indicated that CV-A16 persistence is sustained by continuing virus migration at different geographic scales, from community transmission to virus transportation between distant countries. The results showed a significant impact of virus movements on the epidemiological dynamics of HFMD that could have implications for disease prevention. IMPORTANCE Coxsackievirus A16 is one of the most prevalent enterovirus types in hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreaks reported in Southeast Asia. This study is based on epidemiological and viral data on HFMD caused by CV-A16 in a European country. The phylogeographic data complemented the syndromic surveillance with virus migration patterns between geographic regions in France. The results show how viral evolutionary dynamics and global virus spread interact to shape the worldwide pattern of an EV disease. CV-A16 transmission is driven by movements of infected individuals at different geographic levels: within a country (local dynamics), between neighboring countries (regional dynamics), and between distant countries (transcontinental dynamics). The results are consistent with our earlier data on EV-A71 and confirm the epidemiological interconnection of Asia and Europe with regard to EV infections. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

Globalization, land use and the invasion of West Nile virus

PubMed Central

Kilpatrick, A. Marm

2012-01-01

Many invasive species that have been spread through the globalization of trade and travel are infectious pathogens. A paradigmatic case is the introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) into North America in 1999. A decade of research on the ecology and evolution of WNV includes three findings that provide insight into the outcome of future viral introductions. First, WNV transmission in North America is highest in urbanized and agricultural habitats, in part because the hosts and vectors of WNV are abundant in human-modified areas. Second, after its introduction, the virus quickly adapted to infect local mosquito vectors more efficiently than the originally introduced strain. Third, highly focused feeding patterns of the mosquito vectors of WNV result in unexpected host species being important for transmission. These findings provide a framework for predicting and preventing the emergence of foreign vector-borne pathogens. PMID:22021850

Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into emergence and spread of multidrug resistance

PubMed Central

Manson, Abigail L.; Cohen, Keira A.; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A.; Armstrong, Derek T.; Barry, Clifton E.; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B.; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M.; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A. A.; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E.; Cassell, Gail H.; Dorman, Susan E.; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E.; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S.; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R.; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W.; Earl, Ashlee M.

2017-01-01

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. In this study, we examined a dataset of 5,310 M. tuberculosis whole genome sequences from five continents. Despite great diversity with respect to geographic point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, patterns of drug resistance emergence were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede MDR. In particular, the katG S315T mutation, conferring resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before rifampicin resistance across all lineages, geographic regions, and time periods. Molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of pre-MDR polymorphisms, particularly katG S315, into molecular diagnostics will enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB. PMID:28092681

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

PubMed Central

Heesterbeek, Hans; Anderson, Roy; Andreasen, Viggo; Bansal, Shweta; De Angelis, Daniela; Dye, Chris; Eames, Ken; Edmunds, John; Frost, Simon; Funk, Sebastian; Hollingsworth, Deirdre; House, Thomas; Isham, Valerie; Klepac, Petra; Lessler, Justin; Lloyd-Smith, James; Metcalf, Jessica; Mollison, Denis; Pellis, Lorenzo; Pulliam, Juliet; Roberts, Mick; Viboud, Cecile

2015-01-01

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational and spatial scales, which even within a single pathogen often span hours to months, cellular to ecosystem levels, and local to pandemic spread. Some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, while others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity, and dynamic human behavior, raise prevention and control from formerly national to international issues. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer essential tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing the quantitative evidence base for decision-making in global health. PMID:25766240

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel Patrick

2015-01-01

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Comparison of Radiative Energy Flows in Observational Datasets and Climate Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raschke, Ehrhard; Kinne, Stefan; Rossow, William B.; Stackhouse, Paul W. Jr.; Wild, Martin

2016-01-01

This study examines radiative flux distributions and local spread of values from three major observational datasets (CERES, ISCCP, and SRB) and compares them with results from climate modeling (CMIP3). Examinations of the spread and differences also differentiate among contributions from cloudy and clear-sky conditions. The spread among observational datasets is in large part caused by noncloud ancillary data. Average differences of at least 10Wm(exp -2) each for clear-sky downward solar, upward solar, and upward infrared fluxes at the surface demonstrate via spatial difference patterns major differences in assumptions for atmospheric aerosol, solar surface albedo and surface temperature, and/or emittance in observational datasets. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), observational datasets are less influenced by the ancillary data errors than at the surface. Comparisons of spatial radiative flux distributions at the TOA between observations and climate modeling indicate large deficiencies in the strength and distribution of model-simulated cloud radiative effects. Differences are largest for lower-altitude clouds over low-latitude oceans. Global modeling simulates stronger cloud radiative effects (CRE) by +30Wmexp -2) over trade wind cumulus regions, yet smaller CRE by about -30Wm(exp -2) over (smaller in area) stratocumulus regions. At the surface, climate modeling simulates on average about 15Wm(exp -2) smaller radiative net flux imbalances, as if climate modeling underestimates latent heat release (and precipitation). Relative to observational datasets, simulated surface net fluxes are particularly lower over oceanic trade wind regions (where global modeling tends to overestimate the radiative impact of clouds). Still, with the uncertainty in noncloud ancillary data, observational data do not establish a reliable reference.

Elaborating the History of Our Cementing Societies: An in-Use Stock Perspective.

PubMed

Cao, Zhi; Shen, Lei; Løvik, Amund N; Müller, Daniel B; Liu, Gang

2017-10-03

Modern cities and societies are built fundamentally based on cement and concrete. The global cement production has risen sharply in the past decades due largely to urbanization and construction. Here we deployed a top-down dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) model to quantify the historical development of cement in-use stocks in residential, nonresidential, and civil engineering sectors of all world countries. We found that global cement production spreads unevenly among 184 countries, with China dominating the global production and consumption after the 1990s. Nearly all countries have shown an increasing trend of per capita cement in-use stock in the past century. The present per capita cement in-use stocks vary from 10 to 40 tonnes in major industrialized and transiting countries and are below 10 tonnes in developing countries. Evolutionary modes identified from historical patterns suggest that per capita in-use cement stock growth generally complies with an S-shape curve and relates closely to affluence and urbanization of a country, but more in-depth and bottom-up investigations are needed to better understand socioeconomic drivers behind stock growth. These identified in-use stock patterns can help us better estimate future demand of cement, explore strategies for emissions reduction in the cement industry, and inform CO 2 uptake potentials of cement based products and infrastructure in service.

Economic growth, urbanization, globalization, and the risks of emerging infectious diseases in China: A review.

PubMed

Wu, Tong; Perrings, Charles; Kinzig, Ann; Collins, James P; Minteer, Ben A; Daszak, Peter

2017-02-01

Three interrelated world trends may be exacerbating emerging zoonotic risks: income growth, urbanization, and globalization. Income growth is associated with rising animal protein consumption in developing countries, which increases the conversion of wild lands to livestock production, and hence the probability of zoonotic emergence. Urbanization implies the greater concentration and connectedness of people, which increases the speed at which new infections are spread. Globalization-the closer integration of the world economy-has facilitated pathogen spread among countries through the growth of trade and travel. High-risk areas for the emergence and spread of infectious disease are where these three trends intersect with predisposing socioecological conditions including the presence of wild disease reservoirs, agricultural practices that increase contact between wildlife and livestock, and cultural practices that increase contact between humans, wildlife, and livestock. Such an intersection occurs in China, which has been a "cradle" of zoonoses from the Black Death to avian influenza and SARS. Disease management in China is thus critical to the mitigation of global zoonotic risks.

Climate change alters diffusion of forest pest: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jo, Woo Seong; Kim, Hwang-Yong; Kim, Beom Jun

2017-01-01

Population dynamics with spatial information is applied to understand the spread of pests. We introduce a model describing how pests spread in discrete space. The number of pest descendants at each site is controlled by local information such as temperature, precipitation, and the density of pine trees. Our simulation leads to a pest spreading pattern comparable to the real data for pine needle gall midge in the past. We also simulate the model in two different climate conditions based on two different representative concentration pathways scenarios for the future. We observe that after an initial stage of a slow spread of pests, a sudden change in the spreading speed occurs, which is soon followed by a large-scale outbreak. We found that a future climate change causes the outbreak point to occur earlier and that the detailed spatio-temporal pattern of the spread depends on the source position from which the initial pest infection starts.

Experiences Spreading Organic Solid Wastes on Forest Land

Treesearch

J.H. Wilhoit; L.J. Samuelson

1998-01-01

This paper reviews experiences spreading organic solid wastes on forest land over the past six years. Presented are some of the first-ever reported results on tree growth responses from fertilizing pine trees with poultry litter, spreader distribution pattern results for spreading in a pine plantation stand, and a discussion of equipment-related experiences spreading...

Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark Highlands.

PubMed

Yang, Jian; He, Hong S; Shifley, Stephen R

2008-07-01

Understanding spatial controls on wildfires is important when designing adaptive fire management plans and optimizing fuel treatment locations on a forest landscape. Previous research about this topic focused primarily on spatial controls for fire origin locations alone. Fire spread and behavior were largely overlooked. This paper contrasts the relative importance of biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic constraints on the spatial pattern of fire occurrence with that on burn probability (i.e., the probability that fire will spread to a particular location). Spatial point pattern analysis and landscape succession fire model (LANDIS) were used to create maps to show the contrast. We quantified spatial controls on both fire occurrence and fire spread in the Midwest Ozark Highlands region, USA. This area exhibits a typical anthropogenic surface fire regime. We found that (1) human accessibility and land ownership were primary limiting factors in shaping clustered fire origin locations; (2) vegetation and topography had a negligible influence on fire occurrence in this anthropogenic regime; (3) burn probability was higher in grassland and open woodland than in closed-canopy forest, even though fire occurrence density was less in these vegetation types; and (4) biotic and abiotic factors were secondary descriptive ingredients for determining the spatial patterns of burn probability. This study demonstrates how fire occurrence and spread interact with landscape patterns to affect the spatial distribution of wildfire risk. The application of spatial point pattern data analysis would also be valuable to researchers working on landscape forest fire models to integrate historical ignition location patterns in fire simulation.

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics.

PubMed

Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J; Taraskin, Sergei N

2015-12-01

Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

Molecular markers reveal infestation dynamics of the bed bug (Hemiptera: Cimicidae) within apartment buildings.

PubMed

Booth, Warren; Saenz, Virna L; Santangelo, Richard G; Wang, Changlu; Schal, Coby; Vargo, Edward L

2012-05-01

The bed bug, Cimex lectularius L. (Hemiptera: Cimicidae), has experienced an extraordinary global resurgence in recent years, the reasons for which remain poorly understood. Once considered a pest of lower socioeconomic classes, bed bugs are now found extensively across all residential settings, with widespread infestations established in multiapartment buildings. Within such buildings, understanding the population genetic structure and patterns of dispersal may prove critical to the development of effective control strategies. Here, we describe the development of 24 high-resolution microsatellite markers through next generation 454 pyrosequencing and their application to elucidate infestation dynamics within three multistory apartment buildings in the United States. Results reveal contrasting characteristics potentially representative of geographic or locale differences. In Raleigh, NC, an infestation within an apartment building seemed to have started from a single introduction followed by extensive spread. In Jersey City, NJ, two or more introductions followed by spread are evident in two buildings. Populations within single apartments in all buildings were characterized by high levels of relatedness and low levels of diversity, indicative of foundation from small, genetically depauperate propagules. Regardless of the number of unique introductions, genetic data indicate that spread within buildings is extensive, supporting both active and human-mediated dispersal within and between adjacent rooms or apartments spanning multiple floors.

Intermodel spread of the double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs tied to land surface temperature in AMIP GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Wenyu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2017-08-01

Global climate models (GCMs) have long suffered from biases of excessive tropical precipitation in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The severity of the double-Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) bias, defined here as the interhemispheric difference in zonal mean tropical precipitation, varies strongly among models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Models with a more severe double-ITCZ bias feature warmer tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in the SH, coupled with weaker southeast trades. While previous studies focus on coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, here we show that the intermodel spread in the severity of the double-ITCZ bias is closely related to land surface temperature biases, which can be further traced back to those in the Atmosphere Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. By perturbing land temperature in models, we demonstrate that cooler land can indeed lead to a more severe double-ITCZ bias by inducing the above coupled SST-trade wind pattern in the tropics. The response to land temperature can be consistently explained from both the dynamic and energetic perspectives. Although this intermodel spread from the land temperature variation does not account for the ensemble model mean double-ITCZ bias, identifying the land temperature effect provides insights into simulating a realistic ITCZ for the right reasons.

3-D numerical investigation of the mantle dynamics associated with the breakup of Pangea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumgardner, J.R.

1992-01-01

Three-dimensional finite element calculations in spherical geometry are performed to study the response of the mantle with platelike blocks at its surface to an initial condition corresponding to subduction along the margins of Pangea. The mantle is treated as an infinite Prandtl number Boussinesq fluid inside a spherical shell with isothermal, undeformable, free-slip boundaries. Nonsubducting rigid blocks to model continental lithosphere are included in the topmost layer of the computational mesh. At the beginning of the numerical experiments these blocks represent the present continents mapped to their approximate Pangean positions. Asymmetrical downwelling at the margins of these nonsubducting blocks resultsmore » in a pattern of stresses that acts to pull the supercontinent apart. The calculations suggest that the breakup of Pangea and the subsequent global pattern of seafloor spreading was driven largely by the subduction at the Pangean margins.« less

3-D numerical investigation of the mantle dynamics associated with the breakup of Pangea

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baumgardner, J.R.

1992-10-01

Three-dimensional finite element calculations in spherical geometry are performed to study the response of the mantle with platelike blocks at its surface to an initial condition corresponding to subduction along the margins of Pangea. The mantle is treated as an infinite Prandtl number Boussinesq fluid inside a spherical shell with isothermal, undeformable, free-slip boundaries. Nonsubducting rigid blocks to model continental lithosphere are included in the topmost layer of the computational mesh. At the beginning of the numerical experiments these blocks represent the present continents mapped to their approximate Pangean positions. Asymmetrical downwelling at the margins of these nonsubducting blocks resultsmore » in a pattern of stresses that acts to pull the supercontinent apart. The calculations suggest that the breakup of Pangea and the subsequent global pattern of seafloor spreading was driven largely by the subduction at the Pangean margins.« less

Human mobility and epidemic invasion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colizza, Vittoria

2010-03-01

The current H1N1 influenza pandemic is just the latest example of how human mobility helps drive infectious diseases. Travel has grown explosively in the last decades, contributing to an emerging complex pattern of traffic flows that unfolds at different scales, shaping the spread of epidemics. Restrictions on people's mobility are thus investigated to design possible containment measures. By considering a theoretical framework in terms of reaction-diffusion processes, it is possible to study the invasion dynamics of epidemics in a metapopulation system with heterogeneous mobility patterns. The system is found to exhibit a global invasion threshold that sets the critical mobility rate below which the epidemic is contained. The results provide a general framework for the understanding of the numerical evidence from detailed data-driven simulations that show the limited benefit provided by travel flows reduction in slowing down or containing an emerging epidemic.

Global phylogeography of the widely introduced North West Pacific ascidian Styela clava.

PubMed

Goldstien, Sharyn J; Dupont, Lise; Viard, Frédérique; Hallas, Paul J; Nishikawa, Teruaki; Schiel, David R; Gemmell, Neil J; Bishop, John D D

2011-02-22

The solitary ascidian Styela clava Herdman, 1882 is considered to be native to Japan, Korea, northern China and the Russian Federation in the NW Pacific, but it has spread globally over the last 80 years and is now established as an introduced species on the east and west coasts of North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. In eastern Canada it reaches sufficient density to be a serious pest to aquaculture concerns. We sequenced a fragment of the cytochrome oxidase subunit I mitochondrial gene (COI) from a total of 554 individuals to examine the genetic relationships of 20 S. clava populations sampled throughout the introduced and native ranges, in order to investigate invasive population characteristics. The data presented here show a moderate level of genetic diversity throughout the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere (particularly New Zealand) displays a greater amount of haplotype and nucleotide diversity in comparison. This species, like many other invasive species, shows a range of genetic diversities among introduced populations independent of the age of incursion. The successful establishment of this species appears to be associated with multiple incursions in many locations, while other locations appear to have experienced rapid expansion from a potentially small population with reduced genetic diversity. These contrasting patterns create difficulties when attempting to manage and mitigate a species that continues to spread among ports and marinas around the world.

Combining livestock trade patterns with phylogenetics to help understand the spread of foot and mouth disease in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Di Nardo, A; Knowles, N J; Paton, D J

2011-04-01

International trade in animals and their products is recognised as a primary determinant of the global epidemiology of transboundary diseases such as foot and mouth disease (FMD). As well as causing serious production losses, FMD is highly contagious, being transmitted through multiple routes and hosts, which makes it one of the most important diseases affecting trade in livestock. Its occurrence has dramatic consequences for the agricultural economy of a normally disease-free country, as well as for the livelihoods and income generation of developing countries where the disease continues to be endemic. In the dynamic of FMD virus (FMDV) dispersal across the globe, phylogenetic inference from molecular sequences of isolated viruses makes a significant contribution to investigating the evolutionary and spatial pathways underlying the source of FMD epidemics. Matching data on livestock movement with molecular epidemiology can enhance our fundamental understanding when reconstructing the spread of the virus between geographical regions, which is essential for the development of FMD control strategies worldwide. This paper reviews the global situation of FMD in the last ten years, combining phylogenetic insights with information on livestock production systems and international trade to analyse the epidemiological dynamics of FMD and the sources of FMDV introductions at a regional level in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Turing-like structures in a functional model of cortical spreading depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verisokin, A. Yu.; Verveyko, D. V.; Postnov, D. E.

2017-12-01

Cortical spreading depression (CSD) along with migraine waves and spreading depolarization events with stroke or injures are the front-line examples of extreme physiological behaviors of the brain cortex which manifest themselves via the onset and spreading of localized areas of neuronal hyperactivity followed by their depression. While much is known about the physiological pathways involved, the dynamical mechanisms of the formation and evolution of complex spatiotemporal patterns during CSD are still poorly understood, in spite of the number of modeling studies that have been already performed. Recently we have proposed a relatively simple mathematical model of cortical spreading depression which counts the effects of neurovascular coupling and cerebral blood flow redistribution during CSD. In the present study, we address the main dynamical consequences of newly included pathways, namely, the changes in the formation and propagation speed of the CSD front and the pattern formation features in two dimensions. Our most notable finding is that the combination of vascular-mediated spatial coupling with local regulatory mechanisms results in the formation of stationary Turing-like patterns during a CSD event.

Optimizing Hybrid Spreading in Metapopulations

PubMed Central

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C.; Cox, Ingemar J.; Chain, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics. PMID:25923411

Optimizing hybrid spreading in metapopulations.

PubMed

Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Miller, Joel C; Cox, Ingemar J; Chain, Benjamin M

2015-04-29

Epidemic spreading phenomena are ubiquitous in nature and society. Examples include the spreading of diseases, information, and computer viruses. Epidemics can spread by local spreading, where infected nodes can only infect a limited set of direct target nodes and global spreading, where an infected node can infect every other node. In reality, many epidemics spread using a hybrid mixture of both types of spreading. In this study we develop a theoretical framework for studying hybrid epidemics, and examine the optimum balance between spreading mechanisms in terms of achieving the maximum outbreak size. We show the existence of critically hybrid epidemics where neither spreading mechanism alone can cause a noticeable spread but a combination of the two spreading mechanisms would produce an enormous outbreak. Our results provide new strategies for maximising beneficial epidemics and estimating the worst outcome of damaging hybrid epidemics.

The climatic effects of nuclear war

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turco, R. P.; Toon, O. B.; Ackerman, T. P.; Pollack, J. B.; Sagan, C.

1984-01-01

The effects of various US-USSR nuclear-exchange scenarios on global climate are investigated by means of computer simulations, summarizing the results of Turco et al. (1983) and follow-up studies using 3D global-circulation models. A nuclear-scenario model is used to determine the amounts of dust, smoke, radioactivity, and pyrotoxins generated by a particular type of nuclear exchange (such as a general 5,000-Mt exchange, a 1,000-Mt limited exchange, a 5,000-Mt hard-target counterforce attack, and a 100-Mt attack on cities only): a particle-microphysics model predicts the evolution of the dust and smoke particles; and a radiative-convective climate model estimates the effects of the dust and smoke clouds on the global radiation budget. The findings are presented in graphs, diagrams, and a table. Thick clouds blocking most sunlight over the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes for weeks or months and producing ground-temperature reductions of 20-40 C, disruption of global circulation patterns, and rapid spread of clouds to the Southern Hemisphere are among the 'nuclear-winter' effects predicted for the 5,000-Mt baseline case. The catastrophic consequences for plant, animal, and human populations are considered, and the revision of superpower nuclear strategies is urged.

Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world

PubMed Central

Hufnagel, L.; Brockmann, D.; Geisel, T.

2004-01-01

The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics. PMID:15477600

Understanding the Behaviour of Contamination Spread in Nagarjuna Sagar Reservoir Using Temporal Landsat Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarun Teja, K.; Rajan, K. S.

2016-06-01

LANDSAT images are used to identify organic contaminants in water bodies, but, there is no enough evidence in present literature that LANDSAT is also good in identifying a mixture of organic and mineral contaminants such as agricultural waste. The focus of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of LANDSAT imagery to identify organic and mineral contamination (OMC) and to identify spread extent variations of pollution over the season/year in the Nagarjuna Sagar (NS) reservoir using only satellite images. A new band combination is proposed in order to detect OMC, because existing formulae based on band ratio proved to be inadequate in detecting the contamination in NS. Difference in reflectance values of Red and Green channel of an image helps clearly distinguish clear water from OMC water. This procedure was applied over LANDSAT data of the calendar years 2008, 2014 and 2015 to understand the contamination spread pattern through the reservoir. Results show that contamination is following a similar pattern over these calendar years. In January contamination starts at inlets and by May contamination spreads to almost 90% of the reservoir when the total area of water spread is also reduced by half. Contamination spread is low during the monsoonal period of June to September due to heavy inflow and heavy outflow of waters from NS reservoir. Post monsoon NS is contaminated again because of heavy inflow of runoffs from neighboring land use and limited water outflow. This contamination spread pattern matches the agricultural seasons and fertilizer application pattern in this region, indicating that agricultural use of fertilizers could be one of the primary causes of contamination for this waterbody.

Local blur analysis and phase error correction method for fringe projection profilometry systems.

PubMed

Rao, Li; Da, Feipeng

2018-05-20

We introduce a flexible error correction method for fringe projection profilometry (FPP) systems in the presence of local blur phenomenon. Local blur caused by global light transport such as camera defocus, projector defocus, and subsurface scattering will cause significant systematic errors in FPP systems. Previous methods, which adopt high-frequency patterns to separate the direct and global components, fail when the global light phenomenon occurs locally. In this paper, the influence of local blur on phase quality is thoroughly analyzed, and a concise error correction method is proposed to compensate the phase errors. For defocus phenomenon, this method can be directly applied. With the aid of spatially varying point spread functions and local frontal plane assumption, experiments show that the proposed method can effectively alleviate the system errors and improve the final reconstruction accuracy in various scenes. For a subsurface scattering scenario, if the translucent object is dominated by multiple scattering, the proposed method can also be applied to correct systematic errors once the bidirectional scattering-surface reflectance distribution function of the object material is measured.

Does seasonality drive spatial patterns in demography? Variation in survival in African reed warblers Acrocephalus baeticatus across southern Africa does not reflect global patterns

PubMed Central

Jansen, Dorine YM; Abadi, Fitsum; Harebottle, Doug; Altwegg, Res

2014-01-01

Among birds, northern temperate species generally have larger clutches, shorter development periods and lower adult survival than similarly-sized southern and tropical species. Even though this global pattern is well accepted, the driving mechanism is still not fully understood. The main theories are founded on the differing environmental seasonality of these zones (higher seasonality in the North). These patterns arise in cross-species comparisons, but we hypothesized that the same patterns should arise among populations within a species if different types of seasonality select for different life histories. Few studies have examined this. We estimated survival of an azonal habitat specialist, the African reed warbler, across the environmentally diverse African subcontinent, and related survival to latitude and to the seasonality of the different environments of their breeding habitats. Data (1998–2010) collected through a public ringing scheme were analyzed with hierarchical capture-mark-recapture models to determine resident adult survival and its spatial variance across sixteen vegetation units spread across four biomes. The models were defined as state-space multi-state models to account for transience and implemented in a Bayesian framework. We did not find a latitudinal trend in survival or a clear link between seasonality and survival. Spatial variation in survival was substantial across the sixteen sites (spatial standard deviation of the logit mean survival: 0.70, 95% credible interval (CRI): 0.33–1.27). Mean site survival ranged from 0.49 (95% CRI: 0.18–0.80) to 0.83 (95% CRI: 0.62–0.97) with an overall mean of 0.67 (95% CRI: 0.47–0.85). A hierarchical modeling approach enabled us to estimate spatial variation in survival of the African reed warbler across the African subcontinent from sparse data. Although we could not confirm the global pattern of higher survival in less seasonal environments, our findings from a poorly studied region contribute to the study of life-history strategies. PMID:24772268

Global vegetation-fire pattern under different land use and climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, K.; Poulter, B.; Heyder, U.; Gumpenberger, M.; Cramer, W.

2008-12-01

Fire is a process of global significance in the Earth System influencing vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling and biophysical feedbacks. Naturally ignited wildfires have long history in the Earth System. Humans have been using fire to shape the landscape for their purposes for many millenia, sometimes influencing the status of the vegetation remarkably as for example in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. Processes and drivers describing fire danger, ignitions, fire spread and effects are relatively well-known for many fire-prone ecosystems. Modeling these has a long tradition in fire-affected regions to predict fire risk and behavior for fire-fighting purposes. On the other hand, the global vegetation community realized the importance of disturbances to be recognized in their global vegetation models with fire being globally most important and so-far best studied. First attempts to simulate fire globally considered a minimal set of drivers, whereas recent developments attempt to consider each fire process separately. The process-based fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) simulates these processes embedded in the LPJ DGVM. Uncertainties still arise from missing measurements for some parameters in less-studied fire regimes, or from broad PFT classifications which subsume different fire-ecological adaptations and tolerances. Some earth observation data sets as well as fire emission models help to evaluate seasonality and spatial distribution of simulated fire ignitions, area burnt and fire emissions within SPITFIRE. Deforestation fires are a major source of carbon released to the atmosphere in the tropics; in the Amazon basin it is the second-largest contributor to Brazils GHG emissions. How ongoing deforestation affects fire regimes, forest stability and biogeochemical cycling in the Amazon basin under present climate conditions will be presented. Relative importance of fire vs. climate and land use change is analyzed. Emissions resulting from wildfires, agricultural and woodfuel burning will be quantified and drivers identified. Future projections of climate and land use change are applied to the model to investigate joint effects on future changes in fire, deforestation and vegetation dynamics in the Amazon basin.

The phylogeographic pattern of Francisella tularensis in Sweden indicates a Scandinavian origin of Eurosiberian tularaemia.

PubMed

Karlsson, Edvin; Svensson, Kerstin; Lindgren, Petter; Byström, Mona; Sjödin, Andreas; Forsman, Mats; Johansson, Anders

2013-02-01

Previous studies of the causative agent of tularaemia, Francisella tularensis have identified phylogeographic patterns suggestive of environmental maintenance reservoirs. To investigate the phylogeography of tularaemia in Sweden, we selected 163 clinical isolates obtained during 1995-2009 in 10 counties and sequenced one isolate's genome to identify new genetic markers. An improved typing scheme based on two indels and nine SNPs was developed using hydrolysis or TaqMan MGB probe assays. The results showed that much of the known global genetic diversity of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica is present in Sweden. Thirteen of the 163 isolates belonged to a new genetic group that is basal to all other known members of the major genetic clade B.I, which is spread across the Eurosiberian region. One hundred and twenty-five of the 163 Swedish isolates belonged to B.I, but individual clades' frequencies differed from county to county (P < 0.001). Subsequent analyses revealed a correlation between genotype variation over time and recurrent outbreaks at specific places, supporting the 'maintenance reservoir' environmental maintenance hypothesis. Most importantly, the findings reveal the presence of diverse source populations of F. tularensis subsp. holarctica in Sweden and suggest a historical spread of the disease from Scandinavia to other parts of Eurosiberia. © 2012 Society for Applied Microbiology and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Landscape Connectivity Shapes the Spread Pattern of the Rice Water Weevil: A Case Study from Zhejiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhengjun; Wu, Jianguo; Shang, Hanwu; Cheng, Jiaan

2011-02-01

The spread of invasive species is a complex ecological process that is affected by both the biology of the species and the spatial structure of a landscape. The rice water weevil ( Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel), a notorious crop pest found in many parts of the world, is one of the most devastating invasive species in China, and has caused enormous economic losses and ecological damage. Little is known, however, as to how habitat and landscape features affect the spatial spread of this pest. Thus, the main goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between the observed spread pattern of L. oryzophilus and landscape structural factors in Zhejiang Province, China between 1993 and 2001. We quantified the invasive spread of the weevil in terms of both the proportion of infected area and spread distance each year as well as landscape structure and connectivity of rice paddies with landscape metrics. Our results showed that the spread of L. oryzophilus took place primarily in the southwest-northeast direction along coastal areas at a speed of about 36 km per year. The composition and spatial arrangement of landscape elements were key determinants of this unique spread pattern. In particular, the connectivity of early rice paddies was crucial for the invasive spread while other factors such as meteorological and geographical conditions may also have been relevant. To control the spread of the pest, we propose four management measures: (1) to implement a landscape-level planning scheme of cropping systems to minimize habitat area and connectivity for the pest, (2) to reduce the source populations at a local scale using integrated control methods, (3) to monitor and report invasive spread in a timely manner, and (4) to strengthen the quarantine system. To be most effective, all four management measures need to be implemented together through an integrated, multi-scaled approach.

A spatial analysis of Phytophthora ramorum symptom spread using second-order point pattern and GIS-based analyses

Treesearch

Mark Spencer; Kevin O' Hara

2006-01-01

Phytophthora ramorum is a major source of tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus) mortality in the tanoak/redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests of central California. This study presents a spatial analysis of the spread of the disease using second-order point pattern and GIS analyses. Our data set includes four plots...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weiss, K G

The spread of submarines and related technology is an end product of globalization. Globalization is not a new story. By one estimate, our ancestors first crossed out of Africa roughly 80,000 years ago, and began the process that they now call globalization. With the dispersion of people around the world came the development of culture and civilization as well as the spread of ideas, goods, and technology. The process of globalization then is a long-standing one, not an innovation of the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Over the millennia, this process has been an uneven one. Globalization has oftenmore » cuased great disruptions even to the societies that initiated various innovations in culture and civilization, including science and technology. Indeed, many cultures and civilizations have disappeared while some regions failed to advance as rapidly as others, so the process of globalization is not just one of continuing progress. Globalization in the current era seems to be penetrating the most remote corners of the world at a remarkable rate as a result of advances in science and technology, particularly information technology. The diffusion of science and technology is not necessarily a benign development. It could increase the potential for a global military industrial base that may have an adverse affect on world stability in the future. For example, the spread of key military capabilities, like submarines, could still have an impact, especially over the longer term, on the US capability to project power overseas.« less

Assortative mating and mutation diffusion in spatial evolutionary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paley, C. J.; Taraskin, S. N.; Elliott, S. R.

2010-04-01

The influence of spatial structure on the equilibrium properties of a sexual population model defined on networks is studied numerically. Using a small-world-like topology of the networks as an investigative tool, the contributions to the fitness of assortative mating and of global mutant spread properties are considered. Simple measures of nearest-neighbor correlations and speed of spread of mutants through the system have been used to confirm that both of these dynamics are important contributory factors to the fitness. It is found that assortative mating increases the fitness of populations. Quick global spread of favorable mutations is shown to be a key factor increasing the equilibrium fitness of populations.

Global Spread of Hemorrhagic Fever Viruses: Predicting Pandemics.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Jean-Paul; Souris, Marc; Valdivia-Granda, Willy

2018-01-01

As successive epidemics have swept the world, the scientific community has quickly learned from them about the emergence and transmission of communicable diseases. Epidemics usually occur when health systems are unprepared. During an unexpected epidemic, health authorities engage in damage control, fear drives action, and the desire to understand the threat is greatest. As humanity recovers, policy-makers seek scientific expertise to improve their "preparedness" to face future events.Global spread of disease is exemplified by the spread of yellow fever from Africa to the Americas, by the spread of dengue fever through transcontinental migration of mosquitos, by the relentless influenza virus pandemics, and, most recently, by the unexpected emergence of Ebola virus, spread by motorbike and long haul carriers. Other pathogens that are remarkable for their epidemic expansions include the arenavirus hemorrhagic fevers and hantavirus diseases carried by rodents over great geographic distances and the arthropod-borne viruses (West Nile, chikungunya and Zika) enabled by ecology and vector adaptations. Did we learn from the past epidemics? Are we prepared for the worst?The ultimate goal is to develop a resilient global health infrastructure. Besides acquiring treatments, vaccines, and other preventive medicine, bio-surveillance is critical to preventing disease emergence and to counteracting its spread. So far, only the western hemisphere has a large and established monitoring system; however, diseases continue to emerge sporadically, in particular in Southeast Asia and South America, illuminating the imperfections of our surveillance. Epidemics destabilize fragile governments, ravage the most vulnerable populations, and threaten the global community.Pandemic risk calculations employ new technologies like computerized maintenance of geographical and historical datasets, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Next Generation sequencing, and Metagenomics to trace the molecular changes in pathogens during their emergence, and mathematical models to assess risk. Predictions help to pinpoint the hot spots of emergence, the populations at risk, and the pathogens under genetic evolution. Preparedness anticipates the risks, the needs of the population, the capacities of infrastructure, the sources of emergency funding, and finally, the international partnerships needed to manage a disaster before it occurs. At present, the world is in an intermediate phase of trying to reduce health disparities despite exponential population growth, political conflicts, migration, global trade, urbanization, and major environmental changes due to global warming. For the sake of humanity, we must focus on developing the necessary capacities for health surveillance, epidemic preparedness, and pandemic response.

Analysis of Architectural Building Design Influences on Fire Spread in Densely Urban Settlement using Cellular Automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambunan, L.; Salamah, H.; Asriana, N.

2017-03-01

This study aims to determine the influence of architectural design on the risk of fire spread in densely urban settlement area. Cellular Automata (CA) is used to analyse the fire spread pattern, speed, and the extent of damage. Four cells represent buildings, streets, and fields characteristic in the simulated area, as well as their flammability level and fire spread capabilities. Two fire scenarios are used to model the spread of fire: (1) fire origin in a building with concrete and wood material majority, and (2) fire origin in building with wood material majority. Building shape, building distance, road width, and total area of wall openings are considered constant, while wind is ignored. The result shows that fire spread faster in the building area with wood majority than with concrete majority. Significant amount of combustible building material, absence of distance between buildings, narrow streets and limited fields are factors which influence fire spread speed and pattern as well as extent of damage when fire occurs in the densely urban settlement area.

The potential and realized spread of wildfires across Canada.

PubMed

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Flannigan, Mike D; Parks, Sean A; Anderson, Kerry R; Little, John M; Taylor, Steve W

2014-08-01

Given that they can burn for weeks or months, wildfires in temperate and boreal forests may become immense (eg., 10(0) - 10(4) km(2) ). However, during the period within which a large fire is 'active', not all days experience weather that is conducive to fire spread; indeed most of the spread occurs on a small proportion (e.g., 1 - 15 days) of not necessarily consecutive days during the active period. This study examines and compares the Canada-wide patterns in fire-conducive weather ('potential' spread) and the spread that occurs on the ground ('realized' spread). Results show substantial variability in distributions of potential and realized spread days across Canada. Both potential and realized spread are higher in western than in eastern Canada; however, whereas potential spread generally decreases from south to north, there is no such pattern with realized spread. The realized-to-potential fire-spread ratio is considerably higher in northern Canada than in the south, indicating that proportionally more fire-conducive days translate into fire progression. An exploration of environmental correlates to spread show that there may be a few factors compensating for the lower potential spread in northern Canada: a greater proportion of coniferous (i.e., more flammable) vegetation, lesser human impacts (i.e., less fragmented landscapes), sufficient fire ignitions, and intense droughts. Because a linear relationship exists between the frequency distributions of potential spread days and realized spread days in a fire zone, it is possible to obtain one from the other using a simple conversion factor. Our methodology thus provides a means to estimate realized fire spread from weather-based data in regions where fire databases are poor, which may improve our ability to predict future fire activity. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Synergetic effect of laser patterning and micro coining for controlled lubricant propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenkranz, Andreas; Gruetzmacher, Philipp G.; Szurdak, Adam; Gachot, Carsten; Hirt, Gerhard; Muecklich, Frank

2016-09-01

In this study, the anisotropic spreading behavior of Poly-(alpha)-olefin oil (kinematic viscosity of 7.8 cSt at 100 °C) on stainless steel samples (AISI 403) having periodic, channel-like structures produced by hot micro-coining (periodicity of 400 μm and depth of 40 μm) as well as multi-scale structures (coining and laser patterning) was investigated. These results were compared to the behavior of periodic channels fabricated by direct laser interference patterning (periodicity of 5 μm and depth of 1 μm). The spreading behavior of a droplet (3 μl) was studied for a polished reference as well as for all modified surfaces and recorded by a digital light microscope. From this study, it can be concluded that the polished reference leads to an isotropic spreading behavior resulting from the stochastic surface roughness without any preferential orientation whereas all structured samples induce an anisotropic spreading behavior but with different degrees of anisotropy. The observed behavior can be well correlated with pinning induced by the grooves thus hindering the droplet propagation perpendicular to the grooves and the generation of capillary forces which favor the droplet movement along the grooves. It could be proved that the structural depth is a very desicive parameter with regard to the resulting spreading behavior. The multi-scale surface combining large structural depths and the steeper pattern geometry of the micro-coined surface with much smaller grooves of the laser-structure shows the largest anisotropic spreading behavior due to a stronger pinning and increased capillary forces.

Major role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) viruses in 2014 and 2015

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Avian influenza viruses are of major concern to both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in 2013/2014, showed unprecedented rapid and global spread to Japan, North America and Europe in 2014/2015. Our interdiscip...

Process contributions to the intermodel spread in amplified Arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boeke, R.; Taylor, P. C.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice the global average. This robust climate system response to an external forcing is referred to as Arctic Amplification (AA). While Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate models simulate AA, the largest intermodel spread in projected warming is also found in the Arctic. Quantifying the amount of polar warming relative to global warming influences how society adapts to climate change; a 2°C increase in global mean temperature would result in a polar warming between 4-8°C according to the intermodel spread in CMIP5 simulations. A trove of previous work has considered AA diagnostically using variations in the surface energy budget to attribute the intermodel spread in AA to an assortment of feedbacks—surface albedo, cloud, surface turbulent flux, and atmospheric and oceanic energy transport. We consider a systems-thinking approach treating AA as a process that evolves over time. We hypothesize that two specific components of the AA process are most important and influence the intermodel spread. (1) The inability of the Arctic system to effectively remove excess heat sourced from natural variability. The change in the efficiency of the `Arctic air conditioner' is thought to be due to thinner and less extensive sea ice and the resulting ice albedo feedback. (2) The process through which energy is stored in the ocean and exchanged with the atmosphere within the context of the sea ice annual cycle is also important. This study uses CMIP5 simulations from the historical and RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway; an emission scenario with forcing increasing to 8.5 W m-2 by 2100) to analyze how the AA process operates in present and future climate. The intermodel spread in these processes and the influence on the spread in AA are discussed. This approach identifies models that more realistically simulate the AA process and will aid in narrowing intermodel spread in Arctic surface temperature projections.

Definition of spatial patterns of bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) outbreak spreading in Tatra Mountains (Central Europe), using GIS

Treesearch

Rastislav Jakus; Wojciech Grodzki; Marek Jezik; Marcin Jachym

2003-01-01

The spread of bark beetle outbreaks in the Tatra Mountains was explored by using both terrestrial and remote sensing techniques. Both approaches have proven to be useful for studying spatial patterns of bark beetle population dynamics. The terrestrial methods were applied on existing forestry databases. Vegetation change analysis (image differentiation), digital...

Potential for broad-scale transmission of Ebola virus disease during the West Africa crisis: lessons for the Global Health security agenda.

PubMed

Undurraga, Eduardo A; Carias, Cristina; Meltzer, Martin I; Kahn, Emily B

2017-12-01

The 2014-2016 Ebola crisis in West Africa had approximately eight times as many reported deaths as the sum of all previous Ebola outbreaks. The outbreak magnitude and occurrence of multiple Ebola cases in at least seven countries beyond Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, hinted at the possibility of broad-scale transmission of Ebola. Using a modeling tool developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Ebola outbreak, we estimated the number of Ebola cases that might have occurred had the disease spread beyond the three countries in West Africa to cities in other countries at high risk for disease transmission (based on late 2014 air travel patterns). We estimated Ebola cases in three scenarios: a delayed response, a Liberia-like response, and a fast response scenario. Based on our estimates of the number of Ebola cases that could have occurred had Ebola spread to other countries beyond the West African foci, we emphasize the need for improved levels of preparedness and response to public health threats, which is the goal of the Global Health Security Agenda. Our estimates suggest that Ebola could have potentially spread widely beyond the West Africa foci, had local and international health workers and organizations not committed to a major response effort. Our results underscore the importance of rapid detection and initiation of an effective, organized response, and the challenges faced by countries with limited public health systems. Actionable lessons for strengthening local public health systems in countries at high risk of disease transmission include increasing health personnel, bolstering primary and critical healthcare facilities, developing public health infrastructure (e.g. laboratory capacity), and improving disease surveillance. With stronger local public health systems infectious disease outbreaks would still occur, but their rapid escalation would be considerably less likely, minimizing the impact of public health threats such as Ebola. The Ebola outbreak could have potentially spread to other countries, where limited public health surveillance and response capabilities may have resulted in additional foci. Health security requires robust local health systems that can rapidly detect and effectively respond to an infectious disease outbreak.

Physical inter-relationships between hydrothermal activity, faulting and magmatic processes at the center of a slow-spreading, magma-rich mid-ocean ridge segment: A case study of the Lucky Strike segment (MAR, 37°03'-37‧N)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fontaine, F. J.; Cannat, M.; Escartin, J.; Crawford, W. C.; Singh, S. C.

2012-12-01

The modalities and efficiency of hydrothermal heat evacuation at mid-ocean ridges (25% of the global heat loss) are controlled by the lithosphere thermal and permeability structures for which we had robust constraints only for fast/intermediate spreading axis until the last past few years during which integrated geophysical, geological and geochemical studies focused on some hydrothermal sites at slow-spreading ridges. At the Lucky Strike vent field of the mid-atlantic ridge - a hydrothermal complex composed of high-temperature (maximum T=340°C), smoker-like vents and associated diffuse flow and extracting a few hundreds MW from the oceanic lithosphere - a seafloor observatory which installation started in 2005 highlights local interactions between hydrothermal, tectonic and magmatic processes. Detailed geophysical and geological investigations stress the role of the local axial fault system on localizing high- and low-temperature ventings around the faulted rim of a paleo lava lake. Microseismic studies bring constraints on the subseafloor hydrology and suggest an along-axis flow pattern, with a privileged recharge area located about a kilometer north off the active discharges. Seismic reflection studies image a central magma chamber fueling the hydrothermal sites and also reveal its along-axis depth variations likely influencing hydrothermal cell organization and flow focusing. Such linkages among hydrothermal dynamics, heat source and crustal permeability geometries usually lack quantitative constraints at mid-ocean ridges in general, and the Lucky Strike segment settings offers a unique opportunity to couple high-resolution geophysical data to hydrodynamic model. Here we develop a series of original two- and three-dimensional numerical and physical models of hydrothermal activity, tailored to this slow-spreading environment. Our results highlight physical linkages among magmatism, tectonics and crustal hydrology stressing the key role of faulting and magma chamber roof-topology in focusing fluid flow at the center of the Lucky Strike segment. They also help identifying some causes of variations in the modalities of hydrothermal heat extraction along the global ridge network.

Human mobility and time spent at destination: impact on spatial epidemic spreading.

PubMed

Poletto, Chiara; Tizzoni, Michele; Colizza, Vittoria

2013-12-07

Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian (in which the memory of the origin of each traveler is lost) or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale (in which individuals travel to a destination and come back at a constant rate). Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging from a single day up to several months. Such varying length of stay crucially affects the chance and duration of mixing events among hosts and may therefore have a strong impact on the spread of an emerging disease. Here, we present an analytical and a computational study of epidemic processes on a complex subpopulation network where travelers have memory of their origin and spend a heterogeneously distributed time interval at their destination. Through analytical calculations and numerical simulations we show that the heterogeneity of the length of stay alters the expression of the threshold between local outbreak and global invasion, and, moreover, it changes the epidemic behavior of the system in case of a global outbreak. Additionally, our theoretical framework allows us to study the effect of changes in the traveling behavior in response to the infection, by considering a scenario in which sick individuals do not leave their home location. Finally, we compare the results of our non-Markovian framework with those obtained with a classic Markovian approach and find relevant differences between the two, in the estimate of the epidemic invasion potential, as well as of the timing and the pattern of its spatial spread. These results highlight the importance of properly accounting for host trip duration in epidemic models and open the path to the inclusion of such an additional layer of complexity to the existing modeling approaches. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of carbapenemase-producing bacteria in coastal recreational waters.

PubMed

Montezzi, Lara Feital; Campana, Eloiza Helena; Corrêa, Laís Lisboa; Justo, Livia Helena; Paschoal, Raphael Paiva; da Silva, Isabel Lemos Vieira Dias; Souza, Maria do Carmo Maciel; Drolshagen, Marcia; Picão, Renata Cristina

2015-02-01

The spread of carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative rods is an emerging global problem. Although most infections due to carbapenemase producers are limited to healthcare institutions, reports of the occurrence of clinically relevant carbapenemase producers in sewage and polluted rivers are increasingly frequent. Polluted rivers flowing to oceans may contaminate coastal waters with multidrug-resistant bacteria, potentially threatening the safety of recreational activities in these locations. Here we assessed the occurrence of carbapenemase producers in water from touristic beaches located in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, showing distinct pollution patterns. The presence of enterobacteria was noted, including the predominantly environmental genus Kluyvera spp., producing either Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC) or Guyana extended-spectrum (GES)-type carbapenemases and often associated with quinolone resistance determinants. An Aeromonas sp. harbouring blaKPC and qnrS was also observed. These findings strengthen the role of aquatic matrices as reservoirs and vectors of clinically relevant antimicrobial-resistant bacteria, with potential to favour the spread of these resistance threats throughout the community. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Crustal accretion along the global mid-ocean ridge system based on basaltic glass and olivine-hosted melt inclusion compositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanless, V. D.; Behn, M. D.

2015-12-01

The depth and distribution of crystallization at mid-ocean ridges controls the overall architecture of the oceanic crust, influences hydrothermal circulation, and determines geothermal gradients in the crust and uppermost mantle. Despite this, there is no overall consensus on how crystallization is distributed within the crust/upper mantle or how this varies with spreading rate. Here, we examine crustal accretion at mid-ocean ridges by combining crystallization pressures calculated from major element barometers on mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) glasses with vapor-saturation pressures from melt inclusions to produce a detailed map of crystallization depths and distributions along the global ridge system. We calculate pressures of crystallization from >11,500 MORB glasses from the global ridge system using two established major element barometers (1,2). Additionally, we use vapor-saturation pressures from >400 olivine-hosted melt inclusions from five ridges with variable spreading rates to constrain pressures and distributions of crystallization along the global ridge system. We show that (i) crystallization depths from MORB glasses increase and become less focused with decreasing spreading rate, (ii) maximum glass pressures are greater than the maximum melt inclusion pressure, which indicates that the melt inclusions do not record the deepest crystallization at mid-ocean ridges, and (iii) crystallization occurs in the lower crust/upper mantle at all ridges, indicating accretion is distributed throughout the crust at all spreading rates, including those with a steady-state magma lens. Finally, we suggest that the remarkably similar maximum vapor-saturation pressures (~ 3000 bars) in melt inclusion from all spreading rates reflects the CO2 content of the depleted upper mantle feeding the global mid-ocean ridge system. (1) Michael, P. & W. Cornell (1998), Journal of Geophysical Research, 103(B8), 18325-18356; (2) Herzberg, C. (2004), Journal of Petrology, 45(12), 2389.

Assessing the Primary Data Hosted by the Spanish Node of the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF)

PubMed Central

Otegui, Javier; Ariño, Arturo H.; Encinas, María A.; Pando, Francisco

2013-01-01

In order to effectively understand and cope with the current ‘biodiversity crisis’, having large-enough sets of qualified data is necessary. Information facilitators such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) are ensuring increasing availability of primary biodiversity records by linking data collections spread over several institutions that have agreed to publish their data in a common access schema. We have assessed the primary records that one such publisher, the Spanish node of GBIF (GBIF.ES), hosts on behalf of a number of institutions, considered to be a highly representative sample of the total mass of available data for a country in order to know the quantity and quality of the information made available. Our results may provide an indication of the overall fitness-for-use in these data. We have found a number of patterns in the availability and accrual of data that seem to arise naturally from the digitization processes. Knowing these patterns and features may help deciding when and how these data can be used. Broadly, the error level seems low. The available data may be of capital importance for the development of biodiversity research, both locally and globally. However, wide swaths of records lack data elements such as georeferencing or taxonomical levels. Although the remaining information is ample and fit for many uses, improving the completeness of the records would likely increase the usability span for these data. PMID:23372828

Controls on melting at spreading ridges from correlated abyssal peridotite - mid-ocean ridge basalt compositions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regelous, Marcel; Weinzierl, Christoph G.; Haase, Karsten M.

2016-09-01

Variations in the volume and major element composition of basalt erupted along the global mid-ocean ridge system have been attributed to differences in mantle potential temperature, mantle composition, or plate spreading rate and lithosphere thickness. Abyssal peridotites, the residues of mantle melting beneath mid-ocean ridges, provide additional information on the melting process, which could be used to test these hypotheses. We compiled a global database of abyssal peridotite compositions averaged over the same ridge segments defined by Gale et al. (2013). In addition, we calculated the distance of each ridge segment to the nearest hotspots. We show that Cr# in spinel in abyssal peridotites is negatively correlated with Na90 in basalts from the same ridge segments on a global scale. Ridge segments that erupt basalts apparently produced by larger degrees of mantle melting are thus underlain by peridotites from which large amounts of melt have been extracted. We find that near-ridge hotspots have a more widespread influence on mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) composition and ridge depth than previously thought. However, when these hotspot-influenced ridge segments are excluded, the remaining segments show clear relationships between MORB composition, peridotite composition, and ridge depth with spreading rate. Very slow-spreading ridges (<20 mm/yr) are deeper, erupt basalts with higher Na90, Al90, K90/Ti90, and lower Fe90, Ca90/Al90, and expose peridotites with lower Cr# than intermediate and fast-spreading ridges. We show that away from hotspots, the spreading-rate dependence of the maximum degree of mantle melting inferred from Cr# in peridotites (FM) and the bulk degree of melting inferred from Na90 in basalts (FB) from the same ridge segments is unlikely to be due to variations in mantle composition. Nor can the effects of dynamic mantle upwelling or incomplete melt extraction at low spreading rates satisfactorily explain the observed compositions of abyssal peridotites and MORB from very slow-spreading ridges. Instead, the distinctive compositions of abyssal peridotites and MORB from very slow-spreading ridges could result from the presence of a thick lithospheric lid, leading to a lower average degree of melting, and a higher contribution to melting from more fertile mantle lithologies. Alternatively, spreading rate influences the thermal structure of the upper mantle such that the mantle beneath very slow-spreading ridges is cooler.

How We Got to the Northern Hemisphere Ice Ages: Late Miocene Global Cooling and Plate Tectonic CO2 Forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbert, T.; Dalton, C. A.; Carchedi, C.

2017-12-01

The evolution of Earth's climate between "refrigeration" of East Antarctica and the onset of cyclic Northern Hemisphere glaciation spanned more than 11 Myr. In the latest Miocene (Messinian) time, approximately half way on this journey, changes on land, ranging from the expansion of arid zones to major floral and faunal ecosystem shifts, accelerated. Recent compilations of marine surface temperatures reveal that global cooling from the Miocene Optimum (14-16Ma) also accelerated in late Miocene (7-5.35 Ma) time to reach temperatures not much above Holocene conditions. Both hemispheres cooled in parallel, with the changes amplified at higher latitudes in comparison to the tropics. Despite the strong circumstantial case for CO2 decline as the dominant cause of late Miocene climatic and evolutionary change, proxy indicators of CO2concentrations paint an equivocal picture of greenhouse forcing. Here we provide evidence that global sea floor spreading (SFS) rates decelerated at exactly the times of major climatic cooling, linking a decline in tectonic degassing (at both subduction zones and mid-ocean ridges) to fundamental shifts in the global carbon cycle. Our work utilizes newly available global compilations of seafloor fabric and marine magnetic anomalies provided by the NSF-funded Global Seafloor Fabric and Magnetic Lineation Data Base Project. Previous global compilations of SFS typically binned estimates over 10 Myr increments, losing critical resolution on the timescale of late Neogene climate changes. We further improve the signal:noise of SFS estimates by incorporating recent advances in the astronomical calibration of the Miocene geomagnetic polarity timescale. We use two approaches to compile spreading rate estimates over the past 20 Myr at each spreading system: optimized finite rotation calculations, and averages of sea floor-spreading derived from the distances of magnetic lineations along flow lines on the sea floor. Weighted by ridge length, we find an 25% reduction in global SFS since 15 Ma, with the decline most pronounced in the interval 8-5.5 Ma and approximate stasis in the Plio-Pleistocene. Comparison of SFS to global temperature estimates suggest a short time delay (unresolvable at the sample resolution) between tectonic forcing and climate response.

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

PubMed

Santini, Luca; Cornulier, Thomas; Bullock, James M; Palmer, Stephen C F; White, Steven M; Hodgson, Jenny A; Bocedi, Greta; Travis, Justin M J

2016-07-01

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait-based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life-history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life-history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait-space-demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spreading dynamics of an e-commerce preferential information model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Guan, Zhi-Hong; Wang, Yuanmei; Liu, Xiongding

2017-02-01

In order to study the influence of the preferential degree and the heterogeneity of underlying networks on the spread of preferential e-commerce information, we propose a novel susceptible-infected-beneficial model based on scale-free networks. The spreading dynamics of the preferential information are analyzed in detail using the mean-field theory. We determine the basic reproductive number and equilibria. The theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproductive number depends mainly on the preferential degree and the topology of the underlying networks. We prove the global stability of the information-elimination equilibrium. The permanence of preferential information and the global attractivity of the information-prevailing equilibrium are also studied in detail. Some numerical simulations are presented to verify the theoretical results.

Climate change and allergic disease.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Truckner, Robert T; Weber, Richard W; Peden, David B

2008-09-01

Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.

Invasive Plants on Rangelands: a Global Threat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Invasive plant species are spreading and invading rangelands at an unprecedented rate costing ranchers billions of dollars to control invasive plants each year. In its simplest form, the invasion process has four primary stages, including introduction, establishment, spread and colonization. Th...

Population-level genomics identifies the emergence and global spread of a human transmissible multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Rincon, Daniela; Everall, Isobel; Brown, Karen P; Moreno, Pablo; Verma, Deepshikha; Hill, Emily; Drijkoningen, Judith; Gilligan, Peter; Esther, Charles R; Noone, Peadar G; Giddings, Olivia; Bell, Scott C.; Thomson, Rachel; Wainwright, Claire E.; Coulter, Chris; Pandey, Sushil; Wood, Michelle E; Stockwell, Rebecca E; Ramsay, Kay A; Sherrard, Laura J; Kidd, Timothy J; Jabbour, Nassib; Johnson, Graham R; Knibbs, Luke D; Morawska, Lidia; Sly, Peter D; Jones, Andrew; Bilton, Diana; Laurenson, Ian; Ruddy, Michael; Bourke, Stephen; Bowler, Ian CJW; Chapman, Stephen J; Clayton, Andrew; Cullen, Mairi; Daniels, Thomas; Dempsey, Owen; Denton, Miles; Desai, Maya; Drew, Richard J; Edenborough, Frank; Evans, Jason; Folb, Jonathan; Humphrey, Helen; Isalska, Barbara; Jensen-Fangel, Søren; Jönsson, Bodil; Jones, Andrew M.; Katzenstein, Terese L; Lillebaek, Troels; MacGregor, Gordon; Mayell, Sarah; Millar, Michael; Modha, Deborah; Nash, Edward F; O’Brien, Christopher; O’Brien, Deirdre; Ohri, Chandra; Pao, Caroline S; Peckham, Daniel; Perrin, Felicity; Perry, Audrey; Pressler, Tania; Prtak, Laura; Qvist, Tavs; Robb, Ali; Rodgers, Helen; Schaffer, Kirsten; Shafi, Nadia; van Ingen, Jakko; Walshaw, Martin; Watson, Danie; West, Noreen; Whitehouse, Joanna; Haworth, Charles S; Harris, Simon R; Ordway, Diane; Parkhill, Julian; Floto, R. Andres

2016-01-01

Lung infections with Mycobacterium abscessus, a species of multidrug resistant nontuberculous mycobacteria, are emerging as an important global threat to individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) where they accelerate inflammatory lung damage leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Previously, M. abscessus was thought to be independently acquired by susceptible individuals from the environment. However, using whole genome analysis of a global collection of clinical isolates, we show that the majority of M. abscessus infections are acquired through transmission, potentially via fomites and aerosols, of recently emerged dominant circulating clones that have spread globally. We demonstrate that these clones are associated with worse clinical outcomes, show increased virulence in cell-based and mouse infection models, and thus represent an urgent international infection challenge. PMID:27846606

Spread of dwarf mistletoe from discrete seed sources into young stands of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines

Treesearch

J. R. Parmeter Jr.

1972-01-01

The maximum distance of spread of dwarf mistletoes from isolated overstory pines into surrounding reproduction averages 120 feet. The rate of infection in young trees declined as distance from the seed source increased and was generally greatest in the direction of prevailing winds. This pattern of infection was similar to the previously reported pattern of seed...

Plant Invasions in China – Challenges and Chances

PubMed Central

Axmacher, Jan C.; Sang, Weiguo

2013-01-01

Invasive species cause serious environmental and economic harm and threaten global biodiversity. We set out to investigate how quickly invasive plant species are currently spreading in China and how their resulting distribution patterns are linked to socio-economic and environmental conditions. A comparison of the invasive plant species density (log species/log area) reported in 2008 with current data shows that invasive species were originally highly concentrated in the wealthy, southeastern coastal provinces of China, but they are currently rapidly spreading inland. Linear regression models based on the species density and turnover of invasive plants as dependent parameters and principal components representing key socio-economic and environmental parameters as predictors indicate strong positive links between invasive plant density and the overall phytodiversity and associated climatic parameters. Principal components representing socio-economic factors and endemic plant density also show significant positive links with invasive plant density. Urgent control and eradication measures are needed in China's coastal provinces to counteract the rapid inland spread of invasive plants. Strict controls of imports through seaports need to be accompanied by similarly strict controls of the developing horticultural trade and underpinned by awareness campaigns for China's increasingly affluent population to limit the arrival of new invaders. Furthermore, China needs to fully utilize its substantial native phytodiversity, rather than relying on exotics, in current large-scale afforestation projects and in the creation of urban green spaces. PMID:23691164

Patterns of Primary Tumor Invasion and Regional Lymph Node Spread Based on Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Early-Stage Nasal NK/T-cell Lymphoma: Implications for Clinical Target Volume Definition and Prognostic Significance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Run-Ye; Liu, Kang; Wang, Wei-Hu

Purpose: This study aimed to determine the pathways of primary tumor invasion (PTI) and regional lymph node (LN) spread based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in early-stage nasal NK/T-cell lymphoma (NKTCL), to improve clinical target volume (CTV) delineation and evaluate the prognostic value of locoregional extension patterns. Methods and Materials: A total of 105 patients with newly diagnosed early-stage nasal NKTCL who underwent pretreatment MRI were retrospectively reviewed. All patients received radiation therapy with or without chemotherapy. Results: The incidences of PTI and regional LN involvement were 64.7% and 25.7%, respectively. Based on the incidence of PTI, involved sites surroundingmore » the nasal cavity were classified into 3 risk subgroups: high-risk (>20%), intermediate-risk (5%-20%), and low-risk (<5%). The most frequently involved site was the nasopharynx (35.2%), followed by the maxillary (21.9%) and ethmoid (21.9%) sinuses. Local disease and regional LN spread followed an orderly pattern without LN skipping. The retropharyngeal nodes (RPNs) were most frequently involved (19.0%), followed by level II (11.4%). The 5-year overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and locoregional control (LRC) rates for all patients were 72.8%, 65.2%, and 90.0%, respectively. The presence of PTI and regional LN involvement based on MRI significantly and negatively affected PFS and OS. Conclusions: Early-stage nasal NKTCL presents with a high incidence of PTI but a relatively low incidence of regional LN spread. Locoregional spread followed an orderly pattern, and PTI and regional LN spread are powerful prognostic factors for poorer survival outcomes. CTV reduction may be feasible for selected patients.« less

Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology.

PubMed

Jepsen, Jane U; Hagen, Snorre B; Karlsen, Stein-Rune; Ims, Rolf A

2009-12-07

Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent. We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000-2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect. The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks.

Phase-dependent outbreak dynamics of geometrid moth linked to host plant phenology

PubMed Central

Jepsen, Jane U.; Hagen, Snorre B.; Karlsen, Stein-Rune; Ims, Rolf A.

2009-01-01

Climatically driven Moran effects have often been invoked as the most likely cause of regionally synchronized outbreaks of insect herbivores without identifying the exact mechanism. However, the degree of match between host plant and larval phenology is crucial for the growth and survival of many spring-feeding pest insects, suggesting that a phenological match/mismatch-driven Moran effect may act as a synchronizing agent. We analyse the phase-dependent spatial dynamics of defoliation caused by cyclically outbreaking geometrid moths in northern boreal birch forest in Fennoscandia through the most recent massive outbreak (2000–2008). We use satellite-derived time series of the prevalence of moth defoliation and the onset of the growing season for the entire region to investigate the link between the patterns of defoliation and outbreak spread. In addition, we examine whether a phase-dependent coherence in the pattern of spatial synchrony exists between defoliation and onset of the growing season, in order to evaluate if the degree of matching phenology between the moth and their host plant could be the mechanism behind a Moran effect. The strength of regional spatial synchrony in defoliation and the pattern of defoliation spread were both highly phase-dependent. The incipient phase of the outbreak was characterized by high regional synchrony in defoliation and long spread distances, compared with the epidemic and crash phase. Defoliation spread was best described using a two-scale stratified spread model, suggesting that defoliation spread is governed by two processes operating at different spatial scale. The pattern of phase-dependent spatial synchrony was coherent in both defoliation and onset of the growing season. This suggests that the timing of spring phenology plays a role in the large-scale synchronization of birch forest moth outbreaks. PMID:19740876

Investigating the widespread introduction of a tropical marine fouling species.

PubMed

Sheets, Elizabeth A; Cohen, C Sarah; Ruiz, Gregory M; da Rocha, Rosana M

2016-04-01

Little is known about the number and rate of introductions into terrestrial and marine tropical regions, and if introduction patterns and processes differ from temperate latitudes. Botryllid ascidians (marine invertebrate chordates) are an interesting group to study such introduction differences because several congeners have established populations across latitudes. While temperate botryllid invasions have been repeatedly highlighted, the global spread of tropical Botrylloides nigrum (Herdman, 1886) has been largely ignored. We sampled B. nigrum from 16 worldwide warm water locations, including around the Panama Canal, one of the largest shipping hubs in the world and a possible introduction corridor. Using mitochondrial (COI) and nuclear (ANT) markers, we discovered a single species with low genetic divergence and diversity that has established in the Atlantic, Pacific, Indo-Pacific, and Mediterranean Oceans. The Atlantic Ocean contained the highest diversity and multilocus theta estimates and may be a source for introductions to other regions. A high frequency of one mitochondrial haplotype was detected in Pacific populations that may represent a recent introduction in this region. In comparison to temperate relatives, B. nigrum displayed lower (but similar to temperate Botrylloides violaceus) genetic divergence and diversity at both loci that may represent a more recent global spread or differences in introduction pressures in tropical regions. Additionally, chimeras (genetically distinct individuals sharing a single body) were detected in three populations by the mitochondrial locus and validated using cloning, and these individuals contained new haplotype diversity not detected in any other colonies.

Low Earth orbit communications satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moroney, D.; Lashbrook, D.; Mckibben, B.; Gardener, N.; Rivers, T.; Nottingham, G.; Golden, B.; Barfield, B.; Bruening, J.; Wood, D.

1992-01-01

A current thrust in satellite communication systems considers a low-Earth orbiting constellations of satellites for continuous global coverage. Conceptual design studies have been done at the time of this design project by LORAL Aerospace Corporation under the program name GLOBALSTAR and by Motorola under their IRIDIUM program. This design project concentrates on the spacecraft design of the GLOBALSTAR low-Earth orbiting communication system. Overview information on the program was gained through the Federal Communications Commission licensing request. The GLOBALSTAR system consists of 48 operational satellites positioned in a Walker Delta pattern providing global coverage and redundancy. The operational orbit is 1389 km (750 nmi) altitude with eight planes of six satellites each. The orbital planes are spaced 45 deg., and the spacecraft are separated by 60 deg. within the plane. A Delta 2 launch vehicle is used to carry six spacecraft for orbit establishment. Once in orbit, the spacecraft will utilize code-division multiple access (spread spectrum modulation) for digital relay, voice, and radio determination satellite services (RDSS) yielding position determination with accuracy up to 200 meters.

Cholera in the United States, 2001–2011: a reflection of patterns of global epidemiology and travel

PubMed Central

LOHARIKAR, A.; NEWTON, A. E.; STROIKA, S.; FREEMAN, M.; GREENE, K. D.; PARSONS, M. B.; BOPP, C.; TALKINGTON, D.; MINTZ, E. D.; MAHON, B. E.

2015-01-01

SUMMARY US cholera surveillance offers insight into global and domestic trends. Between 2001 and 2011, 111 cases were reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Cholera was associated with international travel in 90 (81%) patients and was domestically acquired in 20 (18%) patients; for one patient, information was not available. From January 2001 to October 2010, the 42 (47%) travel-associated cases were associated with travel to Asia. In October 2010, a cholera epidemic started in Haiti, soon spreading to the Dominican Republic (Hispaniola). From then to December 2011, 40 (83%) of the 48 travel-associated cases were associated with travel to Hispaniola. Of 20 patients who acquired cholera domestically, 17 (85%) reported seafood consumption; 10 (59%) ate seafood from the US Gulf Coast. In summary, an increase in travel-associated US cholera cases was associated with epidemic cholera in Hispaniola in 2010–2011. Travel to Asia and consumption of Gulf Coast seafood remained important sources of US cholera cases. PMID:24865664

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

Consequences of land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slonecker, E. Terrence; Barnes, Christopher; Karstensen, Krista; Milheim, Lesley E.; Roig-Silva, Coral M.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Climate and Land Use Change Mission Area is one of seven USGS mission areas that focuses on making substantial scientific "...contributions to understanding how Earth systems interact, respond to, and cause global change". Using satellite and other remotely sensed data, USGS scientists monitor patterns of land cover change over space and time at regional, national, and global scales. These data are analyzed to understand the causes and consequences of changing land cover, such as economic impacts, effects on water quality and availability, the spread of invasive species, habitats and biodiversity, carbon fluctuations, and climate variability. USGS scientists are among the leaders in the study of land cover, which is a term that generally refers to the vegetation and artificial structures that cover the land surface. Examples of land cover include forests, grasslands, wetlands, water, crops, and buildings. Land use involves human activities that take place on the land. For example, "grass" is a land cover, whereas pasture and recreational parks are land uses that produce a cover of grass.

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) clades in Bangladesh, 2010 and 2011.

PubMed

Osmani, Muzaffar G; Ward, Michael P; Giasuddin, Md; Islam, Md Rafiqul; Kalam, Abul

2014-04-01

Since the global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 during 2005-2006, control programs have been successfully implemented in most affected countries. HPAI H5N1 was first reported in Bangladesh in 2007, and since then 546 outbreaks have been reported to the OIE. The disease has apparently become endemic in Bangladesh. Spatio-temporal information on 177 outbreaks of HPAI H5N1 occurring between February 2010 and April 2011 in Bangladesh, and 37 of these outbreaks in which isolated H5N1 viruses were phylogenetically characterized to clade, were analyzed. Three clades were identified, 2.2 (21 cases), 2.3.4 (2 cases) and 2.3.2.1 (14 cases). Clade 2.2 was identified throughout the time period and was widely distributed in a southeast-northwest orientation. Clade 2.3.2.1 appeared later and was generally confined to central Bangladesh in a north-south orientation. Based on a direction test, clade 2.2 viruses spread in a southeast-to-northwest direction, whereas clade 2.3.2.1 spread west-to-east. The magnitude of spread of clade 2.3.2.1 was greater relative to clade 2.2 (angular concentration 0.2765 versus 0.1860). In both cases, the first outbreak(s) were identified as early outliers, but in addition, early outbreaks (one each) of clade 2.2 were also identified in central Bangladesh and in northwest Bangladesh, a considerable distance apart. The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Bangladesh is characterized by reported long-distance translocation events. This poses a challenge to disease control efforts. Increased enforcement of biosecurity and stronger control of movements between affected farms and susceptible farms, and better surveillance and reporting, is needed. Although the movement of poultry and equipment appears to be a more likely explanation for the patterns identified, the relative contribution of trade and the market chain versus wild birds in spreading the disease needs further investigation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improvements To Micro Contact Performance And Reliability

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-22

BAKE : □ 1 min 110°C hot plate bake OPTIONAL - For Grayscale Lithography: 1818 COAT: □ Flood wafer with 1818 □ 4 sec spread at 500 rpm...30 sec spin at 4,000 rpm, ramp=200 □ 75 sec 110°C hot plate bake GRAYSCALE PATTERNING: □ Follow grayscale patterning process for patterns...8217 □ 2 min 200°C hot plate bake 1818 COAT: □ Flood wafer with 1818 □ 4 sec spread at 500 rpm □ 30 sec spin at 4,000 rpm, ramp=200 □ 75 sec 110

Global and local threshold in a metapopulational SEIR model with quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Marcelo F. C.; Rossi, Luca; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Vespignani, Alessandro

2013-03-01

Diseases which have the possibility of transmission before the onset of symptoms pose a challenging threat to healthcare since it is hard to track spreaders and implement quarantine measures. More precisely, one main concerns regarding pandemic spreading of diseases is the prediction-and eventually control-of local outbreaks that will trigger a global invasion of a particular disease. We present a metapopulation disease spreading model with transmission from both symptomatic and asymptomatic agents and analyze the role of quarantine measures and mobility processes between subpopulations. We show that, depending on the disease parameters, it is possible to separate in the parameter space the local and global thresholds and study the system behavior as a function of the fraction of asymptomatic transmissions. This means that it is possible to have a range of parameters values where although we do not achieve local control of the outbreak it is possible to control the global spread of the disease. We validate the analytic picture in data-driven model that integrates commuting, air traffic flow and detailed information about population size and structure worldwide. Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-Technical Systems (MoBS)

Role of the Insect Supervectors Bemisia tabaci and Frankliniella occidentalis in the Emergence and Global Spread of Plant Viruses.

PubMed

Gilbertson, Robert L; Batuman, Ozgur; Webster, Craig G; Adkins, Scott

2015-11-01

Emergence of insect-transmitted plant viruses over the past 10-20 years has been disproportionately driven by two so-called supervectors: the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, and the Western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis. High rates of reproduction and dispersal, extreme polyphagy, and development of insecticide resistance, together with human activities, have made these insects global pests. These supervectors transmit a diversity of plant viruses by different mechanisms and mediate virus emergence through local evolution, host shifts, mixed infections, and global spread. Associated virus evolution involves reassortment, recombination, and component capture. Emergence of B. tabaci-transmitted geminiviruses (begomoviruses), ipomoviruses, and torradoviruses has led to global disease outbreaks as well as multiple paradigm shifts. Similarly, F. occidentalis has mediated tospovirus host shifts and global dissemination and the emergence of pollen-transmitted ilarviruses. The plant virus-supervector interaction offers exciting opportunities for basic research and global implementation of generalized disease management strategies to reduce economic and environmental impacts.

Liquid spreading on ceramic-coated carbon nanotube films and patterned microstructures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Hangbo; Hart, A. John

2015-11-01

We study the capillary-driven liquid spreading behavior on films and microstructures of ceramic-coated vertically aligned carbon nanotubes (CNTs) fabricated on quartz substrates. The nanoscale porosity and micro-scale dimensions of the CNT structures, which can be precisely varied by the fabrication process, enable quantitative measurements that can be related to analytical models of the spreading behavior. Moreover, the conformal alumina coating by atomic layer deposition (ALD) prevents capillary-induced deformation of the CNTs upon meniscus recession, which has complicated previous studies of this topic. Washburn-like liquid spreading behavior is observed on non-patterned CNT surfaces, and is explained using a scaling model based on the balance of capillary driving force and the viscous drag force. Using these insights, we design patterned surfaces with controllable spreading rates and study the contact line pinning-depinning behavior. The nanoscale porosity, controllable surface chemistry, and mechanical stability of coated CNTs provide significantly enhanced liquid-solid interfacial area compared to solid microstructures. As a result, these surface designs may be useful for applications such as phase-change heat transfer and electrochemical energy storage. Funding for this project is provided by the National Institutes of Health and the MIT Center for Clean Water and Clean Energy supported by the King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals.

Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong.

PubMed

Leung, Kathy; Jit, Mark; Lau, Eric H Y; Wu, Joseph T

2017-08-11

The spread of many respiratory infections is determined by contact patterns between infectious and susceptible individuals in the population. There are no published data for quantifying social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong which is a hotspot for emerging infectious diseases due to its high population density and connectivity in the air transportation network. We adopted a commonly used diary-based design to conduct a social contact survey in Hong Kong in 2015/16 using both paper and online questionnaires. Participants using paper questionnaires reported more contacts and longer contact duration than those using online questionnaires. Participants reported 13 person-hours of contact and 8 contacts per day on average, which decreased over age but increased with household size, years of education and income level. Prolonged and frequent contacts, and contacts at home, school and work were more likely to involve physical contacts. Strong age-assortativity was observed in all age groups. We evaluated the characteristics of social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong. Our findings could help to improve the design of future social contact surveys, parameterize transmission models of respiratory infectious diseases, and inform intervention strategies based on model outputs.

Uni-directional liquid spreading on asymmetric nanostructured surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Kuang-Han; Xiao, Rong; Wang, Evelyn N.

2010-05-01

Controlling surface wettability and liquid spreading on patterned surfaces is of significant interest for a broad range of applications, including DNA microarrays, digital lab-on-a-chip, anti-fogging and fog-harvesting, inkjet printing and thin-film lubrication. Advancements in surface engineering, with the fabrication of various micro/nanoscale topographic features, and selective chemical patterning on surfaces, have enhanced surface wettability and enabled control of the liquid film thickness and final wetted shape. In addition, groove geometries and patterned surface chemistries have produced anisotropic wetting, where contact-angle variations in different directions resulted in elongated droplet shapes. In all of these studies, however, the wetting behaviour preserves left-right symmetry. Here, we demonstrate that we can harness the design of asymmetric nanostructured surfaces to achieve uni-directional liquid spreading, where the liquid propagates in a single preferred direction and pins in all others. Through experiments and modelling, we determined that the spreading characteristic is dependent on the degree of nanostructure asymmetry, the height-to-spacing ratio of the nanostructures and the intrinsic contact angle. The theory, based on an energy argument, provides excellent agreement with experimental data. The insights gained from this work offer new opportunities to tailor advanced nanostructures to achieve active control of complex flow patterns and wetting on demand.

Information spreading by a combination of MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern classification.

PubMed

Sato, Masashi; Yamashita, Okito; Sato, Masa-Aki; Miyawaki, Yoichi

2018-01-01

To understand information representation in human brain activity, it is important to investigate its fine spatial patterns at high temporal resolution. One possible approach is to use source estimation of magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals. Previous studies have mainly quantified accuracy of this technique according to positional deviations and dispersion of estimated sources, but it remains unclear how accurately MEG source estimation restores information content represented by spatial patterns of brain activity. In this study, using simulated MEG signals representing artificial experimental conditions, we performed MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern analysis to examine whether MEG source estimation can restore information content represented by patterns of cortical current in source brain areas. Classification analysis revealed that the corresponding artificial experimental conditions were predicted accurately from patterns of cortical current estimated in the source brain areas. However, accurate predictions were also possible from brain areas whose original sources were not defined. Searchlight decoding further revealed that this unexpected prediction was possible across wide brain areas beyond the original source locations, indicating that information contained in the original sources can spread through MEG source estimation. This phenomenon of "information spreading" may easily lead to false-positive interpretations when MEG source estimation and classification analysis are combined to identify brain areas that represent target information. Real MEG data analyses also showed that presented stimuli were able to be predicted in the higher visual cortex at the same latency as in the primary visual cortex, also suggesting that information spreading took place. These results indicate that careful inspection is necessary to avoid false-positive interpretations when MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern analysis are combined.

Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

Periglacial fires and trees in a continental setting of Central Canada, Upper Pleistocene.

PubMed

Bélanger, N; Carcaillet, C; Padbury, G A; Harvey-Schafer, A N; Van Rees, K J C

2014-03-01

Fire is a key factor controlling global vegetation patterns and carbon cycling. It mostly occurs under warm periods during which fuel builds up with sufficient moisture, whereas such conditions stimulate fire ignition and spread. Biomass burning increased globally with warming periods since the last glacial era. Data confirming periglacial fires during glacial periods are very sparse because such climates are likely too cold to favour fires. Here, tree occurrence and fires during the Upper Pleistocene glacial periods in Central Canada are inferred from botanical identification and calibrated radiocarbon dates of charcoal fragments. Charcoal fragments were archived in sandy dunes of central Saskatchewan and were dated >50000-26600 cal BP. Fragments were mostly gymnosperms. Parallels between radiocarbon dates and GISP2-δ¹⁸O records deciphered relationships between fire and climate. Fires occurred either hundreds to thousands of years after Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) interstadial warming events (i.e., the time needed to build enough fuel for fire ignition and spread) or at the onset of the DO event. The chronological uncertainties result from the dated material not precisely matching the fires and from the low residual ¹⁴C associated with old sample material. Dominance of high-pressure systems and low effective moisture during post-DO coolings likely triggered flammable periglacial ecosystems, while lower moisture and the relative abundance of fuel overshadowed lower temperatures for fire spread. Laurentide ice sheet (LIS) limits during DO events are difficult to assess in Central Canada due to sparse radiocarbon dates. Our radiocarbon data set constrains the extent of LIS. Central Saskatchewan was not covered by LIS throughout the Upper Pleistocene and was not a continental desert. Instead, our results suggest long-lasting periods where fluctuations of the northern tree limits and fires after interstadials occurred persistently. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Travel patterns in China.

PubMed

Garske, Tini; Yu, Hongjie; Peng, Zhibin; Ye, Min; Zhou, Hang; Cheng, Xiaowen; Wu, Jiabing; Ferguson, Neil

2011-02-02

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult.

Travel Patterns in China

PubMed Central

Garske, Tini; Yu, Hongjie; Peng, Zhibin; Ye, Min; Zhou, Hang; Cheng, Xiaowen; Wu, Jiabing; Ferguson, Neil

2011-01-01

The spread of infectious disease epidemics is mediated by human travel. Yet human mobility patterns vary substantially between countries and regions. Quantifying the frequency of travel and length of journeys in well-defined population is therefore critical for predicting the likely speed and pattern of spread of emerging infectious diseases, such as a new influenza pandemic. Here we present the results of a large population survey undertaken in 2007 in two areas of China: Shenzhen city in Guangdong province, and Huangshan city in Anhui province. In each area, 10,000 randomly selected individuals were interviewed, and data on regular and occasional journeys collected. Travel behaviour was examined as a function of age, sex, economic status and home location. Women and children were generally found to travel shorter distances than men. Travel patterns in the economically developed Shenzhen region are shown to resemble those in developed and economically advanced middle income countries with a significant fraction of the population commuting over distances in excess of 50 km. Conversely, in the less developed rural region of Anhui, travel was much more local, with very few journeys over 30 km. Travel patterns in both populations were well-fitted by a gravity model with a lognormal kernel function. The results provide the first quantitative information on human travel patterns in modern China, and suggest that a pandemic emerging in a less developed area of rural China might spread geographically sufficiently slowly for containment to be feasible, while spatial spread in the more economically developed areas might be expected to be much more rapid, making containment more difficult. PMID:21311745

Global Reproduction and Transformation of Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobin, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Neoliberalism has spread globally and operates hegemonically in many fields, including science education. I use historical auto/ethnography to examine global referents that have mediated the production of contemporary science education to explore how the roles of teachers and learners are related to macrostructures such as neoliberalism and…

Diurnal global variability of the Earth's magnetic field during geomagnetically quiet conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klausner, V.

2012-12-01

This work proposes a methodology (or treatment) to establish a representative signal of the global magnetic diurnal variation. It is based on a spatial distribution in both longitude and latitude of a set of magnetic stations as well as their magnetic behavior on a time basis. We apply the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique using gapped wavelet transform and wavelet correlation. This new approach was used to describe the characteristics of the magnetic variations at Vassouras (Brazil) and 12 other magnetic stations spread around the terrestrial globe. Using magnetograms from 2007, we have investigated the global dominant pattern of the Sq variation as a function of low solar activity. This year was divided into two seasons for seasonal variation analysis: solstices (June and December) and equinoxes (March and September). We aim to reconstruct the original geomagnetic data series of the H component taking into account only the diurnal variations with periods of 24 hours on geomagnetically quiet days. We advance a proposal to reconstruct the Sq baseline using only the PCA first mode. The first interpretation of the results suggests that PCA/wavelet method could be used to the reconstruction of the Sq baseline.

A global tectonic activity map with orbital photographic supplement

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lowman, P. D., Jr.

1981-01-01

A three part map showing equatorial and polar regions was compiled showing tectonic and volcanic activity of the past one million years, including the present. Features shown include actively spreading ridges, spreading rates, major active faults, subduction zones, well defined plates, and volcanic areas active within the past one million years. Activity within this period was inferred from seismicity (instrumental and historic), physiography, and published literature. The tectonic activity map was used for planning global geodetic programs of satellite laser ranging and very long base line interferometry and for geologic education.

Education, Meritocracy and the Global War for Talent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Phillip; Tannock, Stuart

2009-01-01

Talk of the rise of a global war for talent and emergence of a new global meritocracy has spread from the literature on human resource management to shape nation-state discourse on managed migration and immigration reform. This article examines the implications that the global war for talent have for education policy. Given that this talent war is…

Dynamics for a diffusive prey-predator model with different free boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Mingxin; Zhang, Yang

2018-03-01

To understand the spreading and interaction of prey and predator, in this paper we study the dynamics of the diffusive Lotka-Volterra type prey-predator model with different free boundaries. These two free boundaries, which may intersect each other as time evolves, are used to describe the spreading of prey and predator. We investigate the existence and uniqueness, regularity and uniform estimates, and long time behaviors of global solution. Some sufficient conditions for spreading and vanishing are established. When spreading occurs, we provide the more accurate limits of (u , v) as t → ∞, and give some estimates of asymptotic spreading speeds of u , v and asymptotic speeds of g , h. Some realistic and significant spreading phenomena are found.

Evolution of spreading rate and H2 production by serpentinization at mid-ocean ridges from 200 Ma to Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreani, M.; García del Real, P.; Daniel, I.; Wright, N.; Coltice, N.

2017-12-01

Mid-oceanic ridge (MOR) spreading rate spatially varies today from 20 to 200 mm/yr and geological records attest of important temporal variations, at least during the past 200 My. The spreading rate has a direct impact on the mechanisms accomodating extension (magmatic vs tectonic), hence on the nature of the rocks forming the oceanic lithosphere. The latter is composed of variable amount of magmatic and mantle rocks, that dominate at fast and (ultra-) slow spreading ridges, respectively. Serpentinization of mantle rocks contributes to global fluxes and notably to those of hydrogen and carbon by providing a pathways for dihydrogen (H2) production, carbone storage by mineralization, and carbon reduction to CH4 and possibly complex organic compounds. Quantification of the global chemical impact of serpentinization through geological time requires a coupling of geochemical parameters with plate-tectonic reconstructions. Here we quantify serpentinization extent and concurrent H2 production at MOR from the Jurassic (200 Ma) to present day (0 Ma). We coupled mean values of relevant petro-chemical parameters such as the proportion of mantle rocks, initial iron in olivine, iron redox state in serpentinites, % of serpentinization to high-resolution models of plate motion within the GPlates infrastructure to estimate the lengths in 1 Myr intervals for the global MOR plate boundary (spreading and transform components), and spreading ridges as a function of their rate. The model sensitivity to selected parameters has been tested. The results show that fragmentation of Pangea resulted in elevated H2 rates (>1012 to 1013 mol/yr) starting at 160 Ma compared to Late Mesozoic (<160 Ma) rates (<1011-1012 mol/yr). From 160 Ma to present, the coupled opening of the Atlantic and Indian oceans as well as the variation in spreading rates maintained H2 generation in the 1012 mol/yr level, but with significant excursions mainly related to the length of ultra-slow spreading segments. For the first time, this model offers a framework toward flux modeling at MOR through time. The model can be further implemented by adding supplementary geochemical parameters or serve other geochemical issues.

Extinct mid-ocean ridges and insights on the influence of hotspots at divergent plate boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacLeod, Sarah; Dietmar Müller, R.; Williams, Simon; Matthews, Kara

2016-04-01

We review all global examples of confirmed or suspected extinct mid-ocean ridges that are preserved in present-day ocean basins. Data on their spreading rate prior to extinction, time of cessation, length of activity, bathymetric and gravity signature are analysed. This analysis identifies some differences between subgroups of extinct ridges, including microplate spreading ridges, back-arc basin ridges and large-scale mid-ocean ridges. Crustal structure of extinct ridges is evaluated using gravity inversion to seek to resolve a long-standing debate on whether the final stages of spreading leads to development of thinned or thickened crust. Most of the ridges we assess have thinner crust at their axes than their flanks, yet a small number are found to have a single segment that is overprinted by an anomalous feature such as a seamount or volcanic ridge. A more complex cessation mechanism is necessary in these cases. The location of spreading centres at their time of cessation relative to hotspots was also evaluated using a global plate reconstruction. This review provides strong evidence for the long-term interaction of spreading centres with hotspots and plate boundaries have been frequently modified within the radius of a hotspot zone of influence.

Discovery of abundant hydrothermal venting on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge in the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Edmonds, H N; Michael, P J; Baker, E T; Connelly, D P; Snow, J E; Langmuir, C H; Dick, H J B; Mühe, R; German, C R; Graham, D W

2003-01-16

Submarine hydrothermal venting along mid-ocean ridges is an important contributor to ridge thermal structure, and the global distribution of such vents has implications for heat and mass fluxes from the Earth's crust and mantle and for the biogeography of vent-endemic organisms. Previous studies have predicted that the incidence of hydrothermal venting would be extremely low on ultraslow-spreading ridges (ridges with full spreading rates <2 cm x yr(-1)-which make up 25 per cent of the global ridge length), and that such vent systems would be hosted in ultramafic in addition to volcanic rocks. Here we present evidence for active hydrothermal venting on the Gakkel ridge, which is the slowest spreading (0.6-1.3 cm x yr(-1)) and least explored mid-ocean ridge. On the basis of water column profiles of light scattering, temperature and manganese concentration along 1,100 km of the rift valley, we identify hydrothermal plumes dispersing from at least nine to twelve discrete vent sites. Our discovery of such abundant venting, and its apparent localization near volcanic centres, requires a reassessment of the geologic conditions that control hydrothermal circulation on ultraslow-spreading ridges.

Language Learning Motivation, Global English and Study Modes: A Comparative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lanvers, Ursula

2017-01-01

Exploring the popular explanation that the global spread of English may demotivate students with English as their first language to learn other languages, this study investigates relations between student motivation and perception of Global English and tests for differences between traditional "campus" and distance university students…

Global epidemic invasion thresholds in directed cattle subpopulation networks having source, sink, and transit nodes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Through the characterization of a metapopulation cattle disease model on a directed network having source, transit, and sink nodes, we derive two global epidemic invasion thresholds. The first threshold defines the conditions necessary for an epidemic to successfully spread at the global scale. The ...

High speed stereovision setup for position and motion estimation of fertilizer particles leaving a centrifugal spreader.

PubMed

Hijazi, Bilal; Cool, Simon; Vangeyte, Jürgen; Mertens, Koen C; Cointault, Frédéric; Paindavoine, Michel; Pieters, Jan G

2014-11-13

A 3D imaging technique using a high speed binocular stereovision system was developed in combination with corresponding image processing algorithms for accurate determination of the parameters of particles leaving the spinning disks of centrifugal fertilizer spreaders. Validation of the stereo-matching algorithm using a virtual 3D stereovision simulator indicated an error of less than 2 pixels for 90% of the particles. The setup was validated using the cylindrical spread pattern of an experimental spreader. A 2D correlation coefficient of 90% and a Relative Error of 27% was found between the experimental results and the (simulated) spread pattern obtained with the developed setup. In combination with a ballistic flight model, the developed image acquisition and processing algorithms can enable fast determination and evaluation of the spread pattern which can be used as a tool for spreader design and precise machine calibration.

Liquid ``Coffee Rings'' and the Spreading of Volatile Liquid Mixtures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Clay; Pye, Justin; Burton, Justin

When a volatile liquid drop is placed on a wetting surface, it rapidly spreads and evaporates. The spreading dynamics and drop geometry are determined by a balance between thermal and interfacial forces, including Marangoni effects. However, this spreading behavior is drastically altered when drops contain a miniscule amount of a less-volatile miscible liquid (solute) in the bulk (solvent); contact line instabilities in the form of ``fingers'' develop. Characteristic finger size increases with increasing solute concentration and is apparent for concentrations as small as 0.1% by volume. Also, the spreading rate depends sensitively on the solute concentration, especially if the solute preferentially wets the substrate. At higher solute concentrations, the spreading droplet will form ``beads'' at the contact line, rather than fingers, and are deposited as the solvent recedes and evaporates, leaving behind a complex pattern of solute micro-droplets. Liquid ``coffee rings'' are often left behind after evaporation because there is a high evaporation rate of the solvent at the contact line, which increases the concentration of the solute, and the longevity of the rings depends on the solute vapor pressure. These results highlight the unusual sensitivity to contamination of volatile spreading, and the complex patterns of liquid contamination deposited following evaporation from a wetted surface. NSF 1455086.

A comparison of chemical compositions of reported altered oceanic crusts and global MORB data set: implication for isotopic heterogeneity of recycled materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimoda, G.; Kogiso, T.

2017-12-01

Chemical composition of altered oceanic crust is one of important constraints to delineate chemical heterogeneity of the mantle. Accordingly, many researchers have been studied to determine bulk chemical composition of altered oceanic crust mainly based on chemical compositions of old oceanic crusts at Site 801 and Site 417/418, and young crust at Site 504 (e.g., Staudigel et al., 1996; Bach et al. 2003; Kuo et al., 2016). Their careful estimation provided reliable bulk chemical compositions of these Sites and revealed common geochemical feature of alteration. To assess effect of recycling of altered oceanic crust on chemical evolution of the mantle, it might be meaningful to discuss whether the reported chemical compositions of altered oceanic crusts can represent chemical composition of globally subducted oceanic crusts. Reported chemical compositions of fresh glass or less altered samples from Site 801, 417/418 and 504 were highly depleted compared to that of global MORB reported by Gale et al. (2013), suggesting that there might be sampling bias. Hence, it could be important to consider chemical difference between oceanic crusts of these three Sites and global MORB to discuss effect of recycling of oceanic crust on isotopic heterogeneity of the mantle. It has been suggested that one of controlling factors of chemical variation of oceanic crust is crustal spreading rate because different degree of partial melting affects chemical composition of magmas produced at a mid-ocean ridge. Crustal spreading rate could also affect intensity of alteration. Namely, oceanic crusts produced at slow-spreading ridges may prone to be altered due to existence of larger displacement faults compared to fast spreading ridges which have relatively smooth topography. Thus, it might be significant to evaluate isotopic evolution of oceanic crusts those were produced at different spreading rates. In this presentation, we will provide a possible chemical variation of altered oceanic crusts based on reported bulk chemical compositions of altered oceanic crusts and global data sets of MORB. On the basis of the chemical variation, we will discuss isotopic evolution of altered oceanic crusts to delineate isotopic variation of recycled oceanic crusts.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.

PubMed

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W; Clark, Douglas B; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M; Colón-González, Felipe J; Gosling, Simon N; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-03-04

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m(3) per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

PubMed Central

Schewe, Jacob; Heinke, Jens; Gerten, Dieter; Haddeland, Ingjerd; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Dankers, Rutger; Eisner, Stephanie; Fekete, Balázs M.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Gosling, Simon N.; Kim, Hyungjun; Liu, Xingcai; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Portmann, Felix T.; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Tang, Qiuhong; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik; Albrecht, Torsten; Frieler, Katja; Piontek, Franziska; Warszawski, Lila; Kabat, Pavel

2014-01-01

Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. PMID:24344289

Multiple geographic origins of commensalism and complex dispersal history of Black Rats.

PubMed

Aplin, Ken P; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Chinen, Alejandro A; Chesser, R Terry; Ten Have, José; Donnellan, Stephen C; Austin, Jeremy; Frost, Angela; Gonzalez, Jean Paul; Herbreteau, Vincent; Catzeflis, Francois; Soubrier, Julien; Fang, Yin-Ping; Robins, Judith; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth; Bastos, Amanda D S; Maryanto, Ibnu; Sinaga, Martua H; Denys, Christiane; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A; Conroy, Chris; Rowe, Kevin; Cooper, Alan

2011-01-01

The Black Rat (Rattus rattus) spread out of Asia to become one of the world's worst agricultural and urban pests, and a reservoir or vector of numerous zoonotic diseases, including the devastating plague. Despite the global scale and inestimable cost of their impacts on both human livelihoods and natural ecosystems, little is known of the global genetic diversity of Black Rats, the timing and directions of their historical dispersals, and the risks associated with contemporary movements. We surveyed mitochondrial DNA of Black Rats collected across their global range as a first step towards obtaining an historical genetic perspective on this socioeconomically important group of rodents. We found a strong phylogeographic pattern with well-differentiated lineages of Black Rats native to South Asia, the Himalayan region, southern Indochina, and northern Indochina to East Asia, and a diversification that probably commenced in the early Middle Pleistocene. We also identified two other currently recognised species of Rattus as potential derivatives of a paraphyletic R. rattus. Three of the four phylogenetic lineage units within R. rattus show clear genetic signatures of major population expansion in prehistoric times, and the distribution of particular haplogroups mirrors archaeologically and historically documented patterns of human dispersal and trade. Commensalism clearly arose multiple times in R. rattus and in widely separated geographic regions, and this may account for apparent regionalism in their associated pathogens. Our findings represent an important step towards deeper understanding the complex and influential relationship that has developed between Black Rats and humans, and invite a thorough re-examination of host-pathogen associations among Black Rats.

Multiple Geographic Origins of Commensalism and Complex Dispersal History of Black Rats

PubMed Central

Aplin, Ken P.; Suzuki, Hitoshi; Chinen, Alejandro A.; Chesser, R. Terry; ten Have, José; Donnellan, Stephen C.; Austin, Jeremy; Frost, Angela; Gonzalez, Jean Paul; Herbreteau, Vincent; Catzeflis, Francois; Soubrier, Julien; Fang, Yin-Ping; Robins, Judith; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth; Bastos, Amanda D. S.; Maryanto, Ibnu; Sinaga, Martua H.; Denys, Christiane; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.; Conroy, Chris; Rowe, Kevin; Cooper, Alan

2011-01-01

The Black Rat (Rattus rattus) spread out of Asia to become one of the world's worst agricultural and urban pests, and a reservoir or vector of numerous zoonotic diseases, including the devastating plague. Despite the global scale and inestimable cost of their impacts on both human livelihoods and natural ecosystems, little is known of the global genetic diversity of Black Rats, the timing and directions of their historical dispersals, and the risks associated with contemporary movements. We surveyed mitochondrial DNA of Black Rats collected across their global range as a first step towards obtaining an historical genetic perspective on this socioeconomically important group of rodents. We found a strong phylogeographic pattern with well-differentiated lineages of Black Rats native to South Asia, the Himalayan region, southern Indochina, and northern Indochina to East Asia, and a diversification that probably commenced in the early Middle Pleistocene. We also identified two other currently recognised species of Rattus as potential derivatives of a paraphyletic R. rattus. Three of the four phylogenetic lineage units within R. rattus show clear genetic signatures of major population expansion in prehistoric times, and the distribution of particular haplogroups mirrors archaeologically and historically documented patterns of human dispersal and trade. Commensalism clearly arose multiple times in R. rattus and in widely separated geographic regions, and this may account for apparent regionalism in their associated pathogens. Our findings represent an important step towards deeper understanding the complex and influential relationship that has developed between Black Rats and humans, and invite a thorough re-examination of host-pathogen associations among Black Rats. PMID:22073158

Module Based Complexity Formation: Periodic Patterning in Feathers and Hairs

PubMed Central

Chuong, Cheng-Ming; Yeh, Chao-Yuan; Jiang, Ting-Xin; Widelitz, Randall

2012-01-01

Patterns describe order which emerges from homogeneity. Complex patterns on the integument are striking because of their visibility throughout an organism's lifespan. Periodic patterning is an effective design because the ensemble of hair or feather follicles (modules) allows the generation of complexity, including regional variations and cyclic regeneration, giving the skin appendages a new lease on life. Spatial patterns include the arrangements of feathers and hairs in specified number, size, and spacing. We explore how a field of equivalent progenitor cells can generate periodically arranged modules based on genetic information, physical-chemical rules and developmental timing. Reconstitution experiments suggest a competitive equilibrium regulated by activators / inhibitors involving Turing reaction-diffusion. Temporal patterns result from oscillating stem cell activities within each module (micro-environment regulation), reflected as growth (anagen) and resting (telogen) phases during the cycling of feather and hair follicles. Stimulating modules with activators initiates the spread of regenerative hair waves, while global inhibitors outside each module (macro-environment) prevent this. Different wave patterns can be simulated by Cellular Automata principles. Hormonal status and seasonal changes can modulate appendage phenotypes, leading to “organ metamorphosis”, with multiple ectodermal organ phenotypes generated from the same precursors. We discuss potential evolutionary novel steps using this module based complexity in several amniote integument organs, exemplified by the spectacular peacock feather pattern. We thus explore the application of the acquired knowledge of patterning in tissue engineering. New hair follicles can be generated after wounding. Hairs and feathers can be reconstituted through self-organization of dissociated progenitor cells. PMID:23539312

Module-based complexity formation: periodic patterning in feathers and hairs.

PubMed

Chuong, Cheng-Ming; Yeh, Chao-Yuan; Jiang, Ting-Xin; Widelitz, Randall

2013-01-01

Patterns describe order which emerges from homogeneity. Complex patterns on the integument are striking because of their visibility throughout an organism’s lifespan. Periodic patterning is an effective design because the ensemble of hair or feather follicles (modules) allows the generation of complexity, including regional variations and cyclic regeneration, giving the skin appendages a new lease on life. Spatial patterns include the arrangements of feathers and hairs in specific number, size, and spacing.We explorehowa field of equivalent progenitor cells can generate periodically arranged modules based on genetic information, physical–chemical rules and developmental timing. Reconstitution experiments suggest a competitive equilibrium regulated by activators/inhibitors involving Turing reaction-diffusion. Temporal patterns result from oscillating stem cell activities within each module (microenvironment regulation), reflected as growth (anagen) and resting (telogen) phases during the cycling of feather and hair follicles. Stimulating modules with activators initiates the spread of regenerative hair waves, while global inhibitors outside each module (macroenvironment) prevent this. Different wave patterns can be simulated by cellular automata principles. Hormonal status and seasonal changes can modulate appendage phenotypes, leading to ‘organ metamorphosis’, with multiple ectodermal organ phenotypes generated from the same precursors. We discuss potential novel evolutionary steps using this module-based complexity in several amniote integument organs, exemplified by the spectacular peacock feather pattern. We thus explore the application of the acquired knowledge of patterning in tissue engineering. New hair follicles can be generated after wounding. Hairs and feathers can be reconstituted through self-organization of dissociated progenitor cells. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Transmission of Hepatitis E Virus in Developing Countries

PubMed Central

Khuroo, Mohammad S.; Khuroo, Mehnaaz S.; Khuroo, Naira S.

2016-01-01

Hepatitis E virus (HEV), an RNA virus of the Hepeviridae family, has marked heterogeneity. While all five HEV genotypes can cause human infections, genotypes HEV-1 and -2 infect humans alone, genotypes HEV-3 and -4 primarily infect pigs, boars and deer, and genotype HEV-7 primarily infects dromedaries. The global distribution of HEV has distinct epidemiological patterns based on ecology and socioeconomic factors. In resource-poor countries, disease presents as large-scale waterborne epidemics, and few epidemics have spread through person-to-person contact; however, endemic diseases within these countries can potentially spread through person-to-person contact or fecally contaminated water and foods. Vertical transmission of HEV from infected mother to fetus causes high fetal and perinatal mortality. Other means of transmission, such as zoonotic transmission, can fluctuate depending upon the region and strain of the virus. For instance, zoonotic transmission can sometimes play an insignificant role in human infections, such as in India, where human and pig HEV infections are unrelated. However, recently China and Southeast Asia have experienced a zoonotic spread of HEV-4 from pigs to humans and this has become the dominant mode of transmission of hepatitis E in eastern China. Zoonotic HEV infections in humans occur by eating undercooked pig flesh, raw liver, and sausages; through vocational contact; or via pig slurry, which leads to environmental contamination of agricultural products and seafood. Lastly, blood transfusion-associated HEV infections occur in many countries and screening of donors for HEV RNA is currently under serious consideration. To summarize, HEV genotypes 1 and 2 cause epidemic and endemic diseases in resource poor countries, primarily spreading through contaminated drinking water. HEV genotypes 3 and 4 on the other hand, cause autochthonous infections in developed, and many developing countries, by means of a unique zoonotic food-borne transmission. PMID:27657112

Population migration and the spread of types 1 and 2 human immunodeficiency viruses.

PubMed Central

Quinn, T C

1994-01-01

Over 14 million people are estimated to be infected with the human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV), with nearly three-fourths of the infected persons residing in developing countries. One factor responsible for dissemination of both HIV-1 and HIV-2 worldwide was the intense migration of individuals, from rural to urban centers with subsequent return migration and internationally due to civil wars, tourism, business purposes, and the drug trade. In sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 1980, urban centers with more than 500,000 inhabitants increased from 3 to 28, and more than 75 military coups occurred in 30 countries. The result was a massive migration of rural inhabitants to urban centers concomitant with the spread of HIV-1 to large population centers. With the associated demographic, economic, and social changes, an epidemic of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV-1 was ignited. Migratory patterns were also responsible for the spread of endemic HIV-2 to neighboring West African countries and eventually to Europe, the Americans, and India. Although Southeast Asia was the last region in which HIV-1 was introduced, it has the greatest potential for rapid spread due to population density and inherent risk behaviors. Thus, the migration of poor, rural, and young sexually active individuals to urban centers coupled with large international movements of HIV-infected individuals played a prominent role in the dissemination of HIV globally. The economic recession has aggravated the transmission of HIV by directly increasing the population at risk through increased urban migration, disruption of rural families and cultural values, poverty, and prostitution and indirectly through a decrease in health care provision. Consequently, social and economic reform as well as sexual behavior education need to be intensified if HIV transmission is to be controlled. Images PMID:8146131

Pseudospread of the atlas: false sign of Jefferson fracture in young children

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suss, R.A.; Zimmerman, R.D.; Leeds, N.E.

Jefferson fractures are rare prior to teen-age. Three young children examined after trauma exhibited the characteristic spread appearance of the atlas, but fractures were excluded radiographically and clinically. A retrospective study demonstrated a similar appearance, termed pseudospread, in most children aged 3 months to 4 years, including over 90% during the second year. Pseudospread results from a discrepancy between the neural growth pattern of the atlas and the somatic pattern of the axis. An atlas spread index is defined and a normal range presented. When an atlas fracture is suggested by apparent lateral spread of the lateral atlas masses, computedmore » tomography is useful to demonstrate an intact atlas ring.« less

Modeling the Underlying Dynamics of the Spread of Crime

PubMed Central

McMillon, David; Simon, Carl P.; Morenoff, Jeffrey

2014-01-01

The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters—patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars—we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy. PMID:24694545

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Scrambling and thermalization in a diffusive quantum many-body system

DOE PAGES

Bohrdt, A.; Mendl, C. B.; Endres, M.; ...

2017-06-02

Out-of-time ordered (OTO) correlation functions describe scrambling of information in correlated quantum matter. They are of particular interest in incoherent quantum systems lacking well defined quasi-particles. Thus far, it is largely elusive how OTO correlators spread in incoherent systems with diffusive transport governed by a few globally conserved quantities. Here, we study the dynamical response of such a system using high-performance matrix-product-operator techniques. Specifically, we consider the non-integrable, one-dimensional Bose–Hubbard model in the incoherent high-temperature regime. Our system exhibits diffusive dynamics in time-ordered correlators of globally conserved quantities, whereas OTO correlators display a ballistic, light-cone spreading of quantum information. Themore » slowest process in the global thermalization of the system is thus diffusive, yet information spreading is not inhibited by such slow dynamics. We furthermore develop an experimentally feasible protocol to overcome some challenges faced by existing proposals and to probe time-ordered and OTO correlation functions. As a result, our study opens new avenues for both the theoretical and experimental exploration of thermalization and information scrambling dynamics.« less

Scrambling and thermalization in a diffusive quantum many-body system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bohrdt, A.; Mendl, C. B.; Endres, M.

Out-of-time ordered (OTO) correlation functions describe scrambling of information in correlated quantum matter. They are of particular interest in incoherent quantum systems lacking well defined quasi-particles. Thus far, it is largely elusive how OTO correlators spread in incoherent systems with diffusive transport governed by a few globally conserved quantities. Here, we study the dynamical response of such a system using high-performance matrix-product-operator techniques. Specifically, we consider the non-integrable, one-dimensional Bose–Hubbard model in the incoherent high-temperature regime. Our system exhibits diffusive dynamics in time-ordered correlators of globally conserved quantities, whereas OTO correlators display a ballistic, light-cone spreading of quantum information. Themore » slowest process in the global thermalization of the system is thus diffusive, yet information spreading is not inhibited by such slow dynamics. We furthermore develop an experimentally feasible protocol to overcome some challenges faced by existing proposals and to probe time-ordered and OTO correlation functions. As a result, our study opens new avenues for both the theoretical and experimental exploration of thermalization and information scrambling dynamics.« less

Global spread of hypoxia in freshwater ecosystems during the last three centuries is caused by rising local human pressure.

PubMed

Jenny, Jean-Philippe; Francus, Pierre; Normandeau, Alexandre; Lapointe, François; Perga, Marie-Elodie; Ojala, Antti; Schimmelmann, Arndt; Zolitschka, Bernd

2016-04-01

The spread of hypoxia is a threat to aquatic ecosystem functions and services as well as to biodiversity. However, sparse long-term monitoring of lake ecosystems has prevented reconstruction of global hypoxia dynamics while inhibiting investigations into its causes and assessing the resilience capacity of these systems. This study compiles the onset and duration of hypoxia recorded in sediments of 365 lakes worldwide since AD 1700, showing that lacustrine hypoxia started spreading before AD 1900, 70 years prior to hypoxia in coastal zones. This study also shows that the increase of human activities and nutrient release is leading to hypoxia onset. No correlations were found with changes in precipitation or temperature. There is no evidence for a post-1980s return to well-oxygenated lacustrine conditions in industrialized countries despite the implementation of restoration programs. The apparent establishment of stable hypoxic conditions prior to AD 1900 highlights the challenges of a growing nutrient demand, accompanied by increasing global nutrient emissions of our industrialized societies, and climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measurements of monopolar and bipolar current spreads using forward-masking with a fixed probe.

PubMed

Bingabr, Mohamed G; Espinoza-Varas, Blas; Sigdel, Saroj

2014-05-01

This research employed a forward-masking paradigm to estimate the current spread of monopolar (MP) and bipolar (BP) maskers, with current amplitudes adjusted to elicit the same loudness. Since the spatial separation between active and return electrodes is smaller in BP than in MP configurations, the BP current spread is more localized and presumably superior in terms of speech intelligibility. Because matching the loudness requires higher current in BP than in MP stimulation, previous forward-masking studies show that BP current spread is not consistently narrower across subjects or electrodes within a subject. The present forward-masking measures of current spread differ from those of previous studies by using the same BP probe electrode configuration for both MP and BP masker configurations, and adjusting the current levels of the MP and BP maskers so as to match them in loudness. With this method, the estimate of masker current spread would not be contaminated by differences in probe current spread. Forward masking was studied in four cochlear implant patients, two females and two males, with speech recognition scores higher than 50%; that is, their auditory-nerve survival status was more than adequate to carry out the experiments. The data showed that MP and BP masker configurations produce equivalent masking patterns (and current spreads) in three participants. A fourth participant displayed asymmetrical patterns with enhancement rather than masking in some cases, especially when the probe and masker were at the same location. This study showed equivalent masking patterns for MP and BP maskers when the BP masker current amplitude was increased to match the loudness of the MP masker, and the same BP probe configuration is used with both maskers. This finding could help to explain why cochlear implant users often fail to accrue higher speech intelligibility benefit from BP stimulation.

Rumor spreading model with the different attitudes towards rumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yuhan; Pan, Qiuhui; Hou, Wenbing; He, Mingfeng

2018-07-01

Rumor spreading has a profound influence on people's well-being and social stability. There are many factors influencing rumor spreading. In this paper, we recommended an assumption that among the common mass there are three attitudes towards rumors: to like rumor spreading, to dislike rumor spreading, and to be hesitant (or neutral) to rumor spreading. Based on such an assumption, a Susceptible-Hesitating-Affected-Resistant(SHAR) model is established, which considered individuals' different attitudes towards rumor spreading. We also analyzed the local and global stability of rumor-free equilibrium and rumor-existence equilibrium, calculated the basic reproduction number of our model. With numerical simulations, we illustrated the effect of parameter changes on rumor spreading, analyzing the parameter sensitivity of the model. The results of the theoretical analysis and numerical simulations illustrated the conclusions of this study. People having different attitudes towards rumors may play different roles in the process of rumor spreading. It was surprising to find, in our research, that people who hesitate to spread rumors have a positive effect on the spread of rumors.

Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8

USGS Publications Warehouse

,; Ip, Hon S.

2016-01-01

Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014–2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health.

Dynamics of epidemic spreading model with drug-resistant variation on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan, Chen; Li, Tao; Zhang, Wu; Dong, Jing

2018-03-01

Considering the influence of the virus' drug-resistant variation, a novel SIVRS (susceptible-infected-variant-recovered-susceptible) epidemic spreading model with variation characteristic on scale-free networks is proposed in this paper. By using the mean-field theory, the spreading dynamics of the model is analyzed in detail. Then, the basic reproductive number R0 and equilibriums are derived. Studies show that the existence of disease-free equilibrium is determined by the basic reproductive number R0. The relationships between the basic reproductive number R0, the variation characteristic and the topology of the underlying networks are studied in detail. Furthermore, our studies prove the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the permanence of epidemic and the global attractivity of endemic equilibrium. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results.

Social networks and spreading of epidemics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

2004-05-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

Magnetic Strips Preserve Record of Ancient Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

This image is a map of Martian magnetic fields in the southern highlands near the Terra Cimmeria and Terra Sirenum regions, centered around 180 degrees longitude from the equator to the pole. It is where magnetic stripes possibly resulting from crustal movement are most prominent. The bands are oriented approximately east - west and are about 100 miles wide and 600 miles long, although the longest band stretches more than 1200 miles. The false blue and red colors represent invisible magnetic fields in the Martian crust that point in opposite directions. The magnetic fields appear to be organized in bands, with adjacent bands pointing in opposite directions, giving these stripes a striking similarity to patterns seen in the Earth's crust at the mid-oceanic ridges.

NASA's Mars Global Surveyor has discovered surprising new evidence of past movement of the Martian crust, suggesting that ancient Mars was a more dynamic, Earth-like planet than it is today.

Scientists using the spacecraft's magnetometer have found banded patterns of magnetic fields on the Martian surface. The adjacent magnetic bands point in opposite directions, giving these invisible stripes a striking similarity to patterns seen in the crust of Earth's sea floors.

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] (P50330,MRPS94769)

Above: An artist's concept comparing the present day magnetic fields on Earth and Mars. Earth's magnetic field is generated by an active dynamo - a hot core of molten metal. The magnetic field surrounds Earth and is considered global (left). The various Martian magnetic fields (right) do not encompass the entire planet and are local. The Martian dynamo is extinct, and its magnetic fields are 'fossil' remnants of its ancient, global magnetic field. I

On the Earth, the sea floor spreads apart slowly at mid-oceanic ridges as new crust flows up from Earth's hot interior. Meanwhile, the direction of Earth's magnetic field reverses occasionally, resulting in alternating stripes in the new crust that carry a fossil record of the past hundreds of million years of Earth's magnetic history, a finding that validated the once-controversial theory of plate tectonics.

'The discovery of this pattern on Mars could revolutionize current thinking of the red planet's evolution,' said Dr. Jack Connerney of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, an investigator on the Global Surveyor's magnetometer team. 'If the bands on Mars are an imprint of crustal spreading, they are a relic of an early era of plate tectonics on Mars. However, unlike on Earth, the implied plate tectonic activity on Mars is most likely extinct.'

Alternate explanations for the banded structure may involve the fracturing and breakup of an ancient, uniformly magnetized crust due to volcanic activity or tectonic stresses from the rise and fall of neighboring terrain.

'Imagine a thin coat of dried paint on a balloon, where the paint is the crust of Mars,' explained Dr. Mario Acuna of Goddard, principal investigator on the Global Surveyor magnetometer. 'If we inflate the balloon further, cracks can develop in the paint, and the edges of the cracks will automatically have opposite polarities, because nature does not allow there to be a positive pole without a negative counterpart.'

Peer-reviewed research based on the observations will be published in the April 30 issue of the journal Science.

The observations of the so-called magnetic stripes were made possible because of Mars Global Surveyor's special aerobraking orbit. This process of dipping into the upper atmosphere of Mars to gradually shape the probe's orbit into a circle was extended due to a problem with a solar panel on the spacecraft. The lowest point of each elliptically shaped orbit curved below the planet's ionosphere, allowing the magnetometer to obtain better-than-planned regional measurements of Mars.

'At its nominal orbit more than 200 miles high, the instruments face too much magnetic interference, and they do not have the resolution to detect these features,' Acuna noted. 'We began with misfortune, and ended up winning the lottery.'

The bands of magnetized crust apparently formed in the distant past when Mars had an active dynamo, or hot core of molten metal, which generated a global magnetic field. Mars was geologically active, with molten rock rising from below cooling at the surface and forming new crust. As the new crust solidified, the magnetic field that permeated the rock was 'frozen' in the crust. Periodically, conditions in the dynamo changed and the global magnetic field reversed direction. The oppositely directed magnetic field was then frozen into newer crust.

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] (P50331,MRPS94770)

Above: These images are an artist's concept of the process that may have generated magnetic stripes in the crust of ancient Mars. In the left image, the blue arrows and compass needle indicate the direction of the magnetic field. The yellow-orange shape represents a pool of molten rock (magma)upwelling beneath the Martian crust. The red and blue bands are magnetized crust on either side of a spreading center, or rift.

'Like a Martian tape recorder, the crust has preserved a fossil record of the magnetic field directions that prevailed at different times in the ancient past,' Connerney said. When the planet's hot core cooled, the dynamo ceased and the global magnetic field of Mars vanished. However, a record of the magnetic field was preserved in the crust and detected by the Global Surveyor instrument.

The mission's map of Martian magnetic regions may help solve another mystery -- the origin of a striking difference in appearance between the smooth, sparsely cratered northern lowlands of Mars and the heavily cratered southern highlands. The map reveals that the northern regions are largely free of magnetism, indicating the northern crust formed after the dynamo died. 'The dynamo likely died a few hundred million years after Mars' formation. One possibility is that later asteroid impacts followed by volcanic activity heated and shocked large areas of the northern crust, obliterating any local magnetic fields and smoothing the terrain,' Acuna said. 'When the crust cooled, there was no longer a global magnetic field to become frozen in again.'

The map also identifies an area in the southern highlands as the oldest surviving unmodified crust on Mars. This area on Marsis where the magnetic stripes are most prominent. The bands are oriented approximately east-to-west and are about 100 miles wide and 600 miles long, although the longest band stretches more than 1,200 miles.

'The bands are wider than those on Earth, perhaps for a couple of reasons,' Connerney said. 'The Martian crust could have been generated at a greater rate, causing a given magnetic field to be imprinted over a wider area before it reversed direction. Second, the Martian magnetic field may have reversed direction less frequently, which would have given more time for anyone field direction to imprint itself in the steadily moving crust, resulting in wider bands.

In order to call this pattern a crustal spreading center like that observed in the mid-oceanic ridges on Earth, we need to find a point of symmetry, where the pattern on one side matches the pattern on the other. We have not yet found evidence of this type of symmetry,' Connerney added.

Disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy: effect of host spatial structure and of inoculum quantity and distribution.

PubMed

Gosme, Marie; Lucas, Philippe

2009-07-01

Spatial patterns of both the host and the disease influence disease spread and crop losses. Therefore, the manipulation of these patterns might help improve control strategies. Considering disease spread across multiple scales in a spatial hierarchy allows one to capture important features of epidemics developing in space without using explicitly spatialized variables. Thus, if the system under study is composed of roots, plants, and planting hills, the effect of host spatial pattern can be studied by varying the number of plants per planting hill. A simulation model based on hierarchy theory was used to simulate the effects of large versus small planting hills, low versus high level of initial infections, and aggregated versus uniform distribution of initial infections. The results showed that aggregating the initially infected plants always resulted in slower epidemics than spreading out the initial infections uniformly. Simulation results also showed that, in most cases, disease epidemics were slower in the case of large host aggregates (100 plants/hill) than with smaller aggregates (25 plants/hill), except when the initially infected plants were both numerous and spread out uniformly. The optimal strategy for disease control depends on several factors, including initial conditions. More importantly, the model offers a framework to account for the interplay between the spatial characteristics of the system, rates of infection, and aggregation of the disease.

Space-time epidemiology and effect of meteorological parameters on influenza-like illness in Phitsanulok, a northern province in Thailand.

PubMed

Nimbalkar, Prakash Madhav; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar

2016-11-21

Influenza-like illness (ILI) is an acute respiratory disease that remains a public health concern for its ability to circulate globally affecting any age group and gender causing serious illness with mortality risk. Comprehensive assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ILI is a prerequisite for effective risk assessment and application of control measures. Though meteorological parameters, such as rainfall, average relative humidity and temperature, influence ILI and represent crucial information for control of this disease, the relation between the disease and these variables is not clearly understood in tropical climates. The aim of this study was to analyse the epidemiology of ILI cases using integrated methods (space-time analysis, spatial autocorrelation and other correlation statistics). After 2009s H1N1 influenza pandemic, Phitsanulok Province in northern Thailand was strongly affected by ILI for many years. This study is based on ILI cases in villages in this province from 2005 to 2012. We used highly precise weekly incidence records covering eight years, which allowed accurate estimation of the ILI outbreak. Comprehensive methodology was developed to analyse the global and local patterns of the spread of the disease. Significant space-time clusters were detected over the study region during eight different periods. ILI cases showed seasonal clustered patterns with a peak in 2010 (P>0.05-9.999 iterations). Local indicators of spatial association identified hotspots for each year. Statistically, the weather pattern showed a clear influence on ILI cases and it strongly correlated with humidity at a lag of 1 month, while temperature had a weaker correlation.

Detailed study of the Cobb offset of the Juan de Fuca ridge: evolution of a propagating rift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, H.P.; Karsten, J.L.; Delaney, J.R.

The Cobb Offset on the northern portion of the Juan de Fuca Ridge has been identified as the tip of a northward propagating rift (Hey and Wilson, 1982). Map compilations of magnetic and seismic data from four new cruises define the present locus of spreading and volcanism on the two ridge segments abutting the Offset and permit detailed modeling of the recent evolution within this transform zone. The axis of recent spreading on the southern ridge segment bends from the normal rdige trend (N20/sup 0/E) to a N-S trend, north of 47/sup 0/15'N. The spreading axis on the northern ridgemore » segment generally defines a N20/sup 0/E trend, except at the southern terminus, where the spreading center is offset slightly to the east. The two spreading centers overlap by about 33 km in the Offset vicinity, and there is evidence of recent volcanism on both segments. Present ridge axis morphology exhibits a transitional sequence from a symmetrical, axial high along the more 'normal' portions of each ridge segment to a grabenlike depression as the tip is approached. The magnetic anomaly patterns observed in the Cobb Offset vicinity are not consistent with the patterns predicted by models of continuous, northward propagation. The magnetic anomaly patterns of the Brunhes Epoch require an event of rapid northward propagation about 0.7 m.y. B.P., followed by a more gradual southward propagation in the middle Brunhes Epoch; most recently, the spreading center on the southern ridge has extended northward to its present configuration. Prior to the Brunhes Epoch, modeling of the magnetic anomaly patterns does not indicate a unique solution; however, net propagation has been northward. We present alternative models for the period beginning 1.7 m.y. B.P.« less

The Emerging Amphibian Fungal Disease, Chytridiomycosis: A Key Example of the Global Phenomenon of Wildlife Emerging Infectious Diseases.

PubMed

Kolby, Jonathan E; Daszak, Peter

2016-06-01

The spread of amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is associated with the emerging infectious wildlife disease chytridiomycosis. This fungus poses an overwhelming threat to global amphibian biodiversity and is contributing toward population declines and extinctions worldwide. Extremely low host-species specificity potentially threatens thousands of the 7,000+ amphibian species with infection, and hosts in additional classes of organisms have now also been identified, including crayfish and nematode worms.Soon after the discovery of B. dendrobatidis in 1999, it became apparent that this pathogen was already pandemic; dozens of countries and hundreds of amphibian species had already been exposed. The timeline of B. dendrobatidis's global emergence still remains a mystery, as does its point of origin. The reason why B. dendrobatidis seems to have only recently increased in virulence to catalyze this global disease event remains unknown, and despite 15 years of investigation, this wildlife pandemic continues primarily uncontrolled. Some disease treatments are effective on animals held in captivity, but there is currently no proven method to eradicate B. dendrobatidis from an affected habitat, nor have we been able to protect new regions from exposure despite knowledge of an approaching "wave" of B. dendrobatidis and ensuing disease.International spread of B. dendrobatidis is largely facilitated by the commercial trade in live amphibians. Chytridiomycosis was recently listed as a globally notifiable disease by the World Organization for Animal Health, but few countries, if any, have formally adopted recommended measures to control its spread. Wildlife diseases continue to emerge as a consequence of globalization, and greater effort is urgently needed to protect global health.

Globalization, English Language Policy, and Teacher Agency: Focus on Asia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamid, M. Obaidul; Nguyen, Hoa Thi Mai

2016-01-01

This paper focuses on English teachers in Asia in the context of globalization, the global spread of English and the emergence of English as an "Asian language." It highlights the dilemmas facing these teachers in meeting the growing social demands of English proficiency in a technology-influenced, managerial and neoliberal education…

Street Soccer USA Cup: Preliminary Findings of a Sport-for-Homeless Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peachey, Jon Welty; Lyras, Alexis; Borland, John; Cohen, Adam

2013-01-01

Over the last decade, the emerging field of sport-for-development (SFD) has advanced global efforts of related and applied scholarship and programming. While most of the existing SFD body of knowledge addresses social challenges of the "global south", today's economic global recession spreads challenges beyond these regions.…

Free energy analysis of cell spreading.

PubMed

McEvoy, Eóin; Deshpande, Vikram S; McGarry, Patrick

2017-10-01

In this study we present a steady-state adaptation of the thermodynamically motivated stress fiber (SF) model of Vigliotti et al. (2015). We implement this steady-state formulation in a non-local finite element setting where we also consider global conservation of the total number of cytoskeletal proteins within the cell, global conservation of the number of binding integrins on the cell membrane, and adhesion limiting ligand density on the substrate surface. We present a number of simulations of cell spreading in which we consider a limited subset of the possible deformed spread-states assumed by the cell in order to examine the hypothesis that free energy minimization drives the process of cell spreading. Simulations suggest that cell spreading can be viewed as a competition between (i) decreasing cytoskeletal free energy due to strain induced assembly of cytoskeletal proteins into contractile SFs, and (ii) increasing elastic free energy due to stretching of the mechanically passive components of the cell. The computed minimum free energy spread area is shown to be lower for a cell on a compliant substrate than on a rigid substrate. Furthermore, a low substrate ligand density is found to limit cell spreading. The predicted dependence of cell spread area on substrate stiffness and ligand density is in agreement with the experiments of Engler et al. (2003). We also simulate the experiments of Théry et al. (2006), whereby initially circular cells deform and adhere to "V-shaped" and "Y-shaped" ligand patches. Analysis of a number of different spread states reveals that deformed configurations with the lowest free energy exhibit a SF distribution that corresponds to experimental observations, i.e. a high concentration of highly aligned SFs occurs along free edges, with lower SF concentrations in the interior of the cell. In summary, the results of this study suggest that cell spreading is driven by free energy minimization based on a competition between decreasing cytoskeletal free energy and increasing passive elastic free energy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa.

PubMed

Redding, David W; Tiedt, Sonia; Lo Iacono, Gianni; Bett, Bernard; Jones, Kate E

2017-07-19

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

Spatial, seasonal and climatic predictive models of Rift Valley fever disease across Africa

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Understanding the emergence and subsequent spread of human infectious diseases is a critical global challenge, especially for high-impact zoonotic and vector-borne diseases. Global climate and land-use change are likely to alter host and vector distributions, but understanding the impact of these changes on the burden of infectious diseases is difficult. Here, we use a Bayesian spatial model to investigate environmental drivers of one of the most important diseases in Africa, Rift Valley fever (RVF). The model uses a hierarchical approach to determine how environmental drivers vary both spatially and seasonally, and incorporates the effects of key climatic oscillations, to produce a continental risk map of RVF in livestock (as a proxy for human RVF risk). We find RVF risk has a distinct seasonal spatial pattern influenced by climatic variation, with the majority of cases occurring in South Africa and Kenya in the first half of an El Niño year. Irrigation, rainfall and human population density were the main drivers of RVF cases, independent of seasonal, climatic or spatial variation. By accounting more subtly for the patterns in RVF data, we better determine the importance of underlying environmental drivers, and also make space- and time-sensitive predictions to better direct future surveillance resources. This article is part of the themed issue ‘One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being’. PMID:28584173

Epidemic of cell phone virus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Pu; González, Marta; Barabási, Albert-László.

2008-03-01

Standard operating systems and Bluetooth technology will be a trend for future cell phone features. These will enable cell phone viruses to spread either through SMS or by sending Bluetooth requests when cell phones are physically close enough. The difference in spreading methods gives these two types of viruses' different epidemiological characteristics. SMS viruses' spread is mainly based on people's social connections, whereas the spreading of Bluetooth viruses is affected by people's mobility patterns and population distribution. Using cell phone data recording calls, SMS and locations of more than 6 million users, we study the spread of SMS and Bluetooth viruses and characterize how the social network and the mobility of mobile phone users affect such spreading processes.

The influence of spectral nudging on typhoon formation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feser, Frauke; Barcikowska, Monika

2012-03-01

Regional climate models can successfully simulate tropical cyclones and typhoons. This has been shown and was evaluated for hindcast studies of the past few decades. But often global and regional weather phenomena are not simulated at the observed location, or occur too often or seldom even though the regional model is driven by global reanalysis data which constitute a near-realistic state of the global atmosphere. Therefore, several techniques have been developed in order to make the regional model follow the global state more closely. One is spectral nudging, which is applied for horizontal wind components with increasing strength for higher model levels in this study. The aim of this study is to show the influence that this method has on the formation of tropical cyclones (TC) in regional climate models. Two ensemble simulations (each with five simulations) were computed for Southeast Asia and the Northwestern Pacific for the typhoon season 2004, one with spectral nudging and one without. First of all, spectral nudging reduced the overall TC number by about a factor of 2. But the number of tracks which are similar to observed best track data (BTD) was greatly increased. Also, spatial track density patterns were found to be more similar when using spectral nudging. The tracks merge after a short time for the spectral nudging simulations and then follow the BTD closely; for the no nudge cases the similarity is greatly reduced. A comparison of seasonal precipitation, geopotential height, and temperature fields at several height levels with observations and reanalysis data showed overall a smaller ensemble spread, higher pattern correlations and reduced root mean square errors and biases for the spectral nudged simulations. Vertical temperature profiles for selected TCs indicate that spectral nudging is not inhibiting TC development at higher levels. Both the Madden-Julian Oscillation and monsoonal precipitation are reproduced realistically by the regional model, with results slightly closer to reanalysis data for the spectral nudged simulations. On the basis of this regional climate model hindcast study of a single typhoon season, spectral nudging seems to be favourable since it has mostly positive effects on typhoon formation, location and general circulation patterns in the generation areas of TCs.

Genomic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing strains isolated in Tuscany, Italy, based on large sequence deletions, SNPs in putative DNA repair genes and MIRU-VNTR polymorphisms.

PubMed

Garzelli, Carlo; Lari, Nicoletta; Rindi, Laura

2016-03-01

The Beijing genotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is cause of global concern as it is rapidly spreading worldwide, is considered hypervirulent, and is most often associated to massive spread of MDR/XDR TB, although these epidemiological or pathological properties have not been confirmed for all strains and in all geographic settings. In this paper, to gain new insights into the biogeographical heterogeneity of the Beijing family, we investigated a global sample of Beijing strains (22% from Italian-born, 78% from foreign-born patients) by determining large sequence polymorphism of regions RD105, RD181, RD150 and RD142, single nucleotide polymorphism of putative DNA repair genes mutT4 and mutT2 and MIRU-VNTR profiles based on 11 discriminative loci. We found that, although our sample of Beijing strains showed a considerable genomic heterogeneity, yielding both ancient and recent phylogenetic strains, the prevalent successful Beijing subsets were characterized by deletions of RD105 and RD181 and by one nucleotide substitution in one or both mutT genes. MIRU-VNTR analysis revealed 47 unique patterns and 9 clusters including a total of 33 isolates (41% of total isolates); the relatively high proportion of Italian-born Beijing TB patients, often occurring in mixed clusters, supports the possibility of an ongoing cross-transmission of the Beijing genotype to autochthonous population. High rates of extra-pulmonary localization and drug-resistance, particularly MDR, frequently reported for Beijing strains in other settings, were not observed in our survey. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Retrospective analysis of EAB spread: understanding the effect of landscape pattern on invasion and propagation

Treesearch

Susan J. Crocker; Greg C. Liknes; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

2011-01-01

Spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, EAB) in the United States has been rapid and extensive. Nearly 10 years after its initial detection near Detroit, Michigan, EAB is now found in 15 states spanning a radius greater than 500 miles. While human activity has been central to facilitating the spread of EAB over long distances, the...

For Export Only: Diffusion Professionals and Population Policy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrett, Deborah; Kurzman, Charles; Shanahan, Suzanne

2010-01-01

Export-only diffusion occurs when innovators do not adopt an innovation themselves, but rather promote it to others for adoption. Potential adopters do not take their cues from early adopters, but rather from diffusion professionals who make it their job to spread a practice or institution. The global spread of national-level, population control…

Dynamics analysis of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks.

PubMed

Liu, Guirong; Liu, Zhimei; Jin, Zhen

2018-05-07

We establish an SIS-UAU model to present the dynamics of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks. The overlay network is represented by two layers: one where the dynamics of the epidemic evolves and another where the information spreads. We theoretically derive the explicit formulas for the basic reproduction number of awareness R 0 a by analyzing the self-consistent equation and the basic reproduction number of disease R 0 d by using the next generation matrix. The formula of R 0 d shows that the effect of awareness can reduce the basic reproduction number of disease. In particular, when awareness does not affect epidemic spreading, R 0 d is shown to match the existing theoretical results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d <1; and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d >1. Finally, numerical simulations show that information plays a vital role in preventing and controlling disease and effectively reduces the final disease scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

International medical migration: a critical conceptual review of the global movements of doctors and nurses.

PubMed

Bradby, Hannah

2014-11-01

This paper critically appraises the discourse around international medical migration at the turn of the 21st century. A critical narrative review of a range of English-language sources, including grey literature, books and research reports, traces the development and spread of specific causative models. The attribution of causative relations between the movement of skilled medical workers, the provision of health care and population health outcomes illustrates how the global reach of biomedicine has to be understood in the context of local conditions. The need to understand migration as an aspect of uneven global development, rather than a delimited issue of manpower services management, is illustrated with reference to debates about 'brain drain' of Africa's health-care professionals, task-shifting and the crisis in health-care human resources. The widespread presumed cause of shortages of skilled health-care staff in sub-Saharan Africa was overdetermined by a compelling narrative of rich countries stealing poor countries' trained health-care professionals. This narrative promotes medical professional interests and ignores historical patterns of underinvestment in health-care systems and structures. Sociological theories of medicalization suggest that the international marketization of medical recruitment is a key site where the uneven global development of capital is at work. A radical reconfiguration of medical staffing along the lines of 'task-shifting' in rich and poor countries' health-care systems alike offers one means of thinking about global equity in access to quality care. © The Author(s) 2014.

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

PubMed

Garcia-Herranz, Manuel; Moro, Esteban; Cebrian, Manuel; Christakis, Nicholas A; Fowler, James H

2014-01-01

Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

Global warming and the potential spread of vector-borne diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patz, J.

1996-12-31

Climatic factors influence many vector-borne infectious diseases, in addition to demographic, biological, and ecological determinants. The United Nation`s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates an unprecedented global rise of 2.0 C by the year 2100. Of major concern is that these changes can affect the spread of many serious infectious diseases, including malaria and dengue fever. Global warming would directly affect disease transmission by shifting the mosquito`s geographic range, increasing reproductive and biting rates, and shortening pathogen incubation period. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from the projected increase in climate variability and sea level rise could indirectlymore » contribute to disease transmission. A review of this literature, as well as preliminary data from ongoing studies will be presented.« less

Nuclear Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Counterterrorism: Impacts on Public Health

PubMed Central

Pregenzer, Arian

2014-01-01

Reducing the risks of nuclear war, limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, and reducing global nuclear weapons stockpiles are key national and international security goals. They are pursued through a variety of international arms control, nonproliferation, and counterterrorism treaties and agreements. These legally binding and political commitments, together with the institutional infrastructure that supports them, work to establish global norms of behavior and have limited the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beyond the primary security objectives, reducing the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons, preventing environmental releases of radioactive material, increasing the availability of safe and secure nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, and providing scientific data relevant to predicting and managing the consequences of natural or human-caused disasters worldwide provide significant benefits to global public health. PMID:24524501

Understanding the spreading patterns of mobile phone viruses.

PubMed

Wang, Pu; González, Marta C; Hidalgo, César A; Barabási, Albert-László

2009-05-22

We modeled the mobility of mobile phone users in order to study the fundamental spreading patterns that characterize a mobile virus outbreak. We find that although Bluetooth viruses can reach all susceptible handsets with time, they spread slowly because of human mobility, offering ample opportunities to deploy antiviral software. In contrast, viruses using multimedia messaging services could infect all users in hours, but currently a phase transition on the underlying call graph limits them to only a small fraction of the susceptible users. These results explain the lack of a major mobile virus breakout so far and predict that once a mobile operating system's market share reaches the phase transition point, viruses will pose a serious threat to mobile communications.

Evolutionary history and global spread of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis Beijing lineage.

PubMed

Merker, Matthias; Blin, Camille; Mona, Stefano; Duforet-Frebourg, Nicolas; Lecher, Sophie; Willery, Eve; Blum, Michael G B; Rüsch-Gerdes, Sabine; Mokrousov, Igor; Aleksic, Eman; Allix-Béguec, Caroline; Antierens, Annick; Augustynowicz-Kopeć, Ewa; Ballif, Marie; Barletta, Francesca; Beck, Hans Peter; Barry, Clifton E; Bonnet, Maryline; Borroni, Emanuele; Campos-Herrero, Isolina; Cirillo, Daniela; Cox, Helen; Crowe, Suzanne; Crudu, Valeriu; Diel, Roland; Drobniewski, Francis; Fauville-Dufaux, Maryse; Gagneux, Sébastien; Ghebremichael, Solomon; Hanekom, Madeleine; Hoffner, Sven; Jiao, Wei-wei; Kalon, Stobdan; Kohl, Thomas A; Kontsevaya, Irina; Lillebæk, Troels; Maeda, Shinji; Nikolayevskyy, Vladyslav; Rasmussen, Michael; Rastogi, Nalin; Samper, Sofia; Sanchez-Padilla, Elisabeth; Savic, Branislava; Shamputa, Isdore Chola; Shen, Adong; Sng, Li-Hwei; Stakenas, Petras; Toit, Kadri; Varaine, Francis; Vukovic, Dragana; Wahl, Céline; Warren, Robin; Supply, Philip; Niemann, Stefan; Wirth, Thierry

2015-03-01

Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains of the Beijing lineage are globally distributed and are associated with the massive spread of multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis in Eurasia. Here we reconstructed the biogeographical structure and evolutionary history of this lineage by genetic analysis of 4,987 isolates from 99 countries and whole-genome sequencing of 110 representative isolates. We show that this lineage initially originated in the Far East, from where it radiated worldwide in several waves. We detected successive increases in population size for this pathogen over the last 200 years, practically coinciding with the Industrial Revolution, the First World War and HIV epidemics. Two MDR clones of this lineage started to spread throughout central Asia and Russia concomitantly with the collapse of the public health system in the former Soviet Union. Mutations identified in genes putatively under positive selection and associated with virulence might have favored the expansion of the most successful branches of the lineage.

Airline operating realities and the global spread of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Webster, Cliff H

2010-07-01

The advent of long-haul travel in the past 10 years has considerably reduced the time of potential disease spread from one side of the world to the other. The implication for travelers is that they may unwittingly be in the prodromal phase of influenza and become symptomatic a few days after travel. Alternatively they may knowingly travel with an infectious disease by masking symptoms. This article outlines the myths that have abounded about the cabin environment being "unclean" and discusses the low likelihood of in-flight transmission with effective air-conditioning and filtration systems. The 2009 H1N1 pandemic highlighted the operational challenges of dealing with infectious disease, including the need for accurate passenger information to allow contact tracing, in contrast to futile measures such as thermal scanners. Containment attempts did not stop the rapid global spread of H1N1 influenza.

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates can infect diverse mosquito vectors of Southeast Asia and Africa

PubMed Central

St. Laurent, Brandyce; Miller, Becky; Burton, Timothy A.; Amaratunga, Chanaki; Men, Sary; Sovannaroth, Siv; Fay, Michael P.; Miotto, Olivo; Gwadz, Robert W.; Anderson, Jennifer M.; Fairhurst, Rick M.

2015-01-01

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites are rapidly spreading in Southeast Asia, yet nothing is known about their transmission. This knowledge gap and the possibility that these parasites will spread to Africa endanger global efforts to eliminate malaria. Here we produce gametocytes from parasite clinical isolates that displayed artemisinin resistance in patients and in vitro, and use them to infect native and non-native mosquito vectors. We show that contemporary artemisinin-resistant isolates from Cambodia develop and produce sporozoites in two Southeast Asian vectors, Anopheles dirus and Anopheles minimus, and the major African vector, Anopheles coluzzii (formerly Anopheles gambiae M). The ability of artemisinin-resistant parasites to infect such highly diverse Anopheles species, combined with their higher gametocyte prevalence in patients, may explain the rapid expansion of these parasites in Cambodia and neighbouring countries, and further compromise efforts to prevent their global spread. PMID:26485448

Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8.

PubMed

2016-10-14

Avian influenza viruses affect both poultry production and public health. A subtype H5N8 (clade 2.3.4.4) virus, following an outbreak in poultry in South Korea in January 2014, rapidly spread worldwide in 2014-2015. Our analysis of H5N8 viral sequences, epidemiological investigations, waterfowl migration, and poultry trade showed that long-distance migratory birds can play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses. Further, we found that the hemagglutinin of clade 2.3.4.4 virus was remarkably promiscuous, creating reassortants with multiple neuraminidase subtypes. Improving our understanding of the circumpolar circulation of avian influenza viruses in migratory waterfowl will help to provide early warning of threats from avian influenza to poultry, and potentially human, health. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum clinical isolates can infect diverse mosquito vectors of Southeast Asia and Africa.

PubMed

St Laurent, Brandyce; Miller, Becky; Burton, Timothy A; Amaratunga, Chanaki; Men, Sary; Sovannaroth, Siv; Fay, Michael P; Miotto, Olivo; Gwadz, Robert W; Anderson, Jennifer M; Fairhurst, Rick M

2015-10-20

Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum parasites are rapidly spreading in Southeast Asia, yet nothing is known about their transmission. This knowledge gap and the possibility that these parasites will spread to Africa endanger global efforts to eliminate malaria. Here we produce gametocytes from parasite clinical isolates that displayed artemisinin resistance in patients and in vitro, and use them to infect native and non-native mosquito vectors. We show that contemporary artemisinin-resistant isolates from Cambodia develop and produce sporozoites in two Southeast Asian vectors, Anopheles dirus and Anopheles minimus, and the major African vector, Anopheles coluzzii (formerly Anopheles gambiae M). The ability of artemisinin-resistant parasites to infect such highly diverse Anopheles species, combined with their higher gametocyte prevalence in patients, may explain the rapid expansion of these parasites in Cambodia and neighbouring countries, and further compromise efforts to prevent their global spread.

Matching global and regional distribution models of the recluse spider Loxosceles rufescens: to what extent do these reflect niche conservatism?

PubMed

Taucare-Ríos, A; Nentwig, W; Bizama, G; Bustamante, R O

2018-06-08

The Mediterranean recluse spider, Loxosceles rufescens (Dufour, 1820) (Araneae: Sicariidae) is a cosmopolitan spider that has been introduced in many parts of the world. Its bite can be dangerous to humans. However, the potential distribution of this alien species, which is able to spread fairly quickly with human aid, is completely unknown. Using a combination of global and regional niche models, it is possible to analyse the spread of this species in relation to environmental conditions. This analysis found that the successful spreading of this species varies according to the region invaded. The majority of populations in Asia are stable and show niche conservatism, whereas in North America this spider is expected to be less successful in occupying niches that differ from those in its native region and that do not support its synanthropic way of living. © 2018 The Royal Entomological Society.

Combining Spatial-Temporal and Phylogenetic Analysis Approaches for Improved Understanding on Global H5N1 Transmission

PubMed Central

Liang, Lu; Xu, Bing; Chen, Yanlei; Liu, Yang; Cao, Wuchun; Fang, Liqun; Feng, Limin; Goodchild, Michael F.; Gong, Peng

2010-01-01

Background Since late 2003, the highly pathogenic influenza A H5N1 had initiated several outbreak waves that swept across the Eurasia and Africa continents. Getting prepared for reassortment or mutation of H5N1 viruses has become a global priority. Although the spreading mechanism of H5N1 has been studied from different perspectives, its main transmission agents and spread route problems remain unsolved. Methodology/Principal Findings Based on a compilation of the time and location of global H5N1 outbreaks from November 2003 to December 2006, we report an interdisciplinary effort that combines the geospatial informatics approach with a bioinformatics approach to form an improved understanding on the transmission mechanisms of H5N1 virus. Through a spherical coordinate based analysis, which is not conventionally done in geographical analyses, we reveal obvious spatial and temporal clusters of global H5N1 cases on different scales, which we consider to be associated with two different transmission modes of H5N1 viruses. Then through an interdisciplinary study of both geographic and phylogenetic analysis, we obtain a H5N1 spreading route map. Our results provide insight on competing hypotheses as to which avian hosts are responsible for the spread of H5N1. Conclusions/Significance We found that although South China and Southeast Asia may be the virus pool of avian flu, East Siberia may be the source of the H5N1 epidemic. The concentration of migratory birds from different places increases the possibility of gene mutation. Special attention should be paid to East Siberia, Middle Siberia and South China for improved surveillance of H5N1 viruses and monitoring of migratory birds. PMID:21042591

Highly siderophile element systematics of abyssal peridotites from intermediate and fast spreading ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D. B.; Day, J. M.; Waters, C. L.

2016-12-01

Abyssal peridotites are residues of both modern and ancient partial melt extraction at oceanic ridges and can be used to examine melting processes and mantle heterogeneity. The highly siderophile elements (HSE: Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, Pd, Re, and the 187Re-187Os system embedded within them), are useful for investigating these issues, as they are generally strongly compatible. To date, limited data on HSE and Os isotopes has been obtained on abyssal peridotites from fast spreading centers. Here, we report new HSE abundance and 187Os/188Os data for Pacific Antarctic Ridge (PAR) and East Pacific Rise (EPR) abyssal peridotites. Samples from the PAR were dredged from two separate localities along the Udintsev Fracture Zone, and EPR samples were taken from Hess Deep. The PAR full spreading rate ranges from 54-83mm/year [1,2] and is 75 mm/year [2] at the Udintsev Fracture Zone. These spreading rates characterize the PAR as an intermediate spreading ridge, whereas the fast spreading EPR has a full rate ranging from 128-157 mm/year [3]. The 187Os/188Os ratios for whole-rocks from the PAR range from 0.114 to 0.134, with Re depletion ages (TRD) varying from 1 Ga to present. Despite the large variation in 187Os/188Os, HSE patterns are primitive mantle-like [4], with Ru/Ir ratios ranging from 1.5-2.1. Depletions in Re and Pd are present, as is expected in partial melt residues, and the samples have undergone 4-15% partial melting based on the rare earth elements (REE). The EPR exhibits higher levels of melt depletion ranging from 18-24%. New results show Hess Deep samples have 187Os/188Os ratios of 0.123 and 0.125 for whole-rocks. These findings indicate that PAR and EPR Os isotopic data overlap with the global record of abyssal peridotites from slower ridges and that Os isotopic heterogeneities are preserved across a wide range of spreading rates and degrees of melt extraction. [1] Géli, L., et al. (1997), Science, 278, 1281-1284; [2] Castillo, P.R., et al. (1998) EPSL, 154,109-125; [3] Warren, J.M., (2016) Lithos, 248-251, 193-219; [4] Becker, H., et al. (2006) GCA, 70, 4528-4550

Empirical study of the role of the topology in spreading on communication networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medvedev, Alexey; Kertesz, Janos

2017-03-01

Topological aspects, like community structure, and temporal activity patterns, like burstiness, have been shown to severely influence the speed of spreading in temporal networks. We study the influence of the topology on the susceptible-infected (SI) spreading on time stamped communication networks, as obtained from a dataset of mobile phone records. We consider city level networks with intra- and inter-city connections. The networks using only intra-city links are usually sparse, where the spreading depends mainly on the average degree. The inter-city links serve as bridges in spreading, speeding up considerably the process. We demonstrate the effect also on model simulations.

Air Pollution, Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.

2007-12-01

The global build up of greenhouse gases (GHGs), is the most significant environmental issue facing the planet. GHGs warm the surface and the atmosphere with significant implications for, rainfall, retreat of glaciers and sea ice, sea level, among other factors. What is less recognized, however, is a comparably major global problem dealing with air pollution. Until about ten years ago, air pollution was thought to be just an urban or a local problem. But new data have revealed that, due to fast long range transport, air pollution is transported across continents and ocean basins, resulting in trans-oceanic and trans-continental plumes of atmospheric brown clouds (ABCs) containing sub micron size particles, i.e, aerosols. ABCs intercept sunlight by absorbing as well as reflecting it, both of which lead to a large surface dimming. The dimming effect is enhanced further because aerosols nucleate more cloud drops which makes the clouds reflect more solar radiation. While the solar heating at the surface is reduced by aerosols in ABCs, the atmospheric solar heating increases due to soot solar absorption. The net difference between the dimming and the atmospheric solar heating is estimated be negative which contributes to a global cooling effect. The global cooling from this negative ABC forcing may have masked as much as 50% of the warming due to GHGs. We will identify regional and mega-city hot spots of ABCs. Long range transport from these hot spots gives rise to wide spread plumes over the adjacent oceans. Such a pattern of regionally concentrated surface dimming and atmospheric solar heating, accompanied by wide spread dimming over the oceans, gives rise to large regional effects. Only during the last decade, we have begun to comprehend the surprisingly large regional impacts. The large north-south gradient in the ABC dimming has altered the north-south gradients in sea surface temperatures, which in turn has been shown by models to decrease rainfall over the continents. The uncertainties in our understanding of the ABC effects are large, but we are discovering new ways in which human activities are changing the climate and the environment.

An Exploration of Iranian EFL Teachers' Perceptions on the Globalization and Hegemony of English

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Safari, Parvin; Razmjoo, Seyyed Ayatollah

2016-01-01

Globalization as an increasingly influencing force has led English language to become the lingua franca of the world. However, the global spread of English is considered as linguistic and cultural imperialism of English speaking countries to exert their dominance, power, culture, ideology and language over the periphery countries. The devastating…

How do neurons work together? Lessons from auditory cortex.

PubMed

Harris, Kenneth D; Bartho, Peter; Chadderton, Paul; Curto, Carina; de la Rocha, Jaime; Hollender, Liad; Itskov, Vladimir; Luczak, Artur; Marguet, Stephan L; Renart, Alfonso; Sakata, Shuzo

2011-01-01

Recordings of single neurons have yielded great insights into the way acoustic stimuli are represented in auditory cortex. However, any one neuron functions as part of a population whose combined activity underlies cortical information processing. Here we review some results obtained by recording simultaneously from auditory cortical populations and individual morphologically identified neurons, in urethane-anesthetized and unanesthetized passively listening rats. Auditory cortical populations produced structured activity patterns both in response to acoustic stimuli, and spontaneously without sensory input. Population spike time patterns were broadly conserved across multiple sensory stimuli and spontaneous events, exhibiting a generally conserved sequential organization lasting approximately 100 ms. Both spontaneous and evoked events exhibited sparse, spatially localized activity in layer 2/3 pyramidal cells, and densely distributed activity in larger layer 5 pyramidal cells and putative interneurons. Laminar propagation differed however, with spontaneous activity spreading upward from deep layers and slowly across columns, but sensory responses initiating in presumptive thalamorecipient layers, spreading rapidly across columns. In both unanesthetized and urethanized rats, global activity fluctuated between "desynchronized" state characterized by low amplitude, high-frequency local field potentials and a "synchronized" state of larger, lower-frequency waves. Computational studies suggested that responses could be predicted by a simple dynamical system model fitted to the spontaneous activity immediately preceding stimulus presentation. Fitting this model to the data yielded a nonlinear self-exciting system model in synchronized states and an approximately linear system in desynchronized states. We comment on the significance of these results for auditory cortical processing of acoustic and non-acoustic information. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genomic analysis of globally diverse Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains provides insights into the emergence and spread of multidrug resistance.

PubMed

Manson, Abigail L; Cohen, Keira A; Abeel, Thomas; Desjardins, Christopher A; Armstrong, Derek T; Barry, Clifton E; Brand, Jeannette; Chapman, Sinéad B; Cho, Sang-Nae; Gabrielian, Andrei; Gomez, James; Jodals, Andreea M; Joloba, Moses; Jureen, Pontus; Lee, Jong Seok; Malinga, Lesibana; Maiga, Mamoudou; Nordenberg, Dale; Noroc, Ecaterina; Romancenco, Elena; Salazar, Alex; Ssengooba, Willy; Velayati, A A; Winglee, Kathryn; Zalutskaya, Aksana; Via, Laura E; Cassell, Gail H; Dorman, Susan E; Ellner, Jerrold; Farnia, Parissa; Galagan, James E; Rosenthal, Alex; Crudu, Valeriu; Homorodean, Daniela; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Narayanan, Sujatha; Pym, Alexander S; Skrahina, Alena; Swaminathan, Soumya; Van der Walt, Martie; Alland, David; Bishai, William R; Cohen, Ted; Hoffner, Sven; Birren, Bruce W; Earl, Ashlee M

2017-03-01

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), caused by drug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, is an increasingly serious problem worldwide. Here we examined a data set of whole-genome sequences from 5,310 M. tuberculosis isolates from five continents. Despite the great diversity of these isolates with respect to geographical point of isolation, genetic background and drug resistance, the patterns for the emergence of drug resistance were conserved globally. We have identified harbinger mutations that often precede multidrug resistance. In particular, the katG mutation encoding p.Ser315Thr, which confers resistance to isoniazid, overwhelmingly arose before mutations that conferred rifampicin resistance across all of the lineages, geographical regions and time periods. Therefore, molecular diagnostics that include markers for rifampicin resistance alone will be insufficient to identify pre-MDR strains. Incorporating knowledge of polymorphisms that occur before the emergence of multidrug resistance, particularly katG p.Ser315Thr, into molecular diagnostics should enable targeted treatment of patients with pre-MDR-TB to prevent further development of MDR-TB.

The Gathering Storm: Is Untreatable Typhoid Fever on the Way?

PubMed Central

Simon, Raphael

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Klemm et al. (mBio 9:e00105-18, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.00105-18) present comprehensive antibiotic sensitivity patterns and genomic sequence data on Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi blood culture isolates from typhoid fever cases during an epidemic in Pakistan. Microbiologic and genomic data pinpoint the identities and locations of the antimicrobial resistance genes and the outbreak strain’s lineage. They propose that Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi be added to the list of bacterial pathogens of public health importance that have become extensively drug resistant (XDR). This paper portends possible dire scenarios for typhoid fever control if XDR strains disseminate globally. Since the outbreak strain is of the H58 haplotype, known for its ability to spread worldwide and displace endemic S. Typhi, this concern is well-founded. The report of Klemm et al. forewarns the global community to address control of typhoid fever more aggressively through prevention, should therapeutic options disappear. This Commentary frames the Klemm et al. findings within a historic perspective. PMID:29559573

The psycholinguistics of developing text construction.

PubMed

Berman, Ruth A

2008-11-01

This paper outlines functionally motivated quantifiable criteria for characterizing different facets of discourse--global-level principles, categories of referential content, clause-linking complex syntax, local linguistic expression and overall discourse stance--in relation to the variables of development, genre and modality. Concern is with later, school-age language development, in the conviction that the long developmental route of language acquisition can profitably be examined in the context of extended discourse. Findings are reviewed from a cross-linguistic project that elicited narrative and expository texts in both speech and writing at four age groups: (9-10 years, 12-13, 16-17 and adults). Clear developmental patterns emerge from middle childhood to adulthood, with significant shifts in adolescence; global-level text organization is mastered earlier in narratives than in expository essays, but the latter promote more advanced use of local-level lexicon and syntax; and spoken texts are more spread out than their denser written counterparts in clause-linkage, referential content and lexical usage. These and other findings are discussed in terms of the growth and reorganization of knowledge about types of discourse and text-embedded language use.

Magnetoencephalography with temporal spread imaging to visualize propagation of epileptic activity.

PubMed

Shibata, Sumiya; Matsuhashi, Masao; Kunieda, Takeharu; Yamao, Yukihiro; Inano, Rika; Kikuchi, Takayuki; Imamura, Hisaji; Takaya, Shigetoshi; Matsumoto, Riki; Ikeda, Akio; Takahashi, Ryosuke; Mima, Tatsuya; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Mikuni, Nobuhiro; Miyamoto, Susumu

2017-05-01

We describe temporal spread imaging (TSI) that can identify the spatiotemporal pattern of epileptic activity using Magnetoencephalography (MEG). A three-dimensional grid of voxels covering the brain is created. The array-gain minimum-variance spatial filter is applied to an interictal spike to estimate the magnitude of the source and the time (Ta) when the magnitude exceeds a predefined threshold at each voxel. This calculation is performed through all spikes. Each voxel has the mean Ta () and spike number (N sp ), which is the number of spikes whose source exceeds the threshold. Then, a random resampling method is used to determine the cutoff value of N sp for the statistically reproducible pattern of the activity. Finally, all the voxels where the source exceeds the threshold reproducibly shown on the MRI with a color scale representing . Four patients with intractable mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) were analyzed. In three patients, the common pattern of the overlap between the propagation and the hypometabolism shown by fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) was identified. TSI can visualize statistically reproducible patterns of the temporal and spatial spread of epileptic activity. TSI can assess the statistical significance of the spatiotemporal pattern based on its reproducibility. Copyright © 2017 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bone Density Development of the Temporal Bone Assessed by Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Takahashi, Kuniyuki; Morita, Yuka; Ohshima, Shinsuke; Izumi, Shuji; Kubota, Yamato; Horii, Arata

2017-12-01

The temporal bone shows regional differences in bone development. The spreading pattern of acute mastoiditis shows age-related differences. In infants, it spreads laterally and causes retroauricular swelling, whereas in older children, it tends to spread medially and causes intracranial complications. We hypothesized that bone maturation may influence the spreading pattern of acute mastoiditis. Eighty participants with normal hearing, aged 3 months to 42 years, participated in this study. Computed tomography (CT) values (Hounsfield unit [HU]) in various regions of the temporal bone, such as the otic capsule (OC), lateral surface of the mastoid cavity (LS), posterior cranial fossa (PCF), and middle cranial fossa (MCF), were measured as markers of bone density. Bone density development curves, wherein CT values were plotted against age, were created for each region. The age at which the CT value exceeded 1000 HU, which is used as an indicator of bone maturation, was calculated from the development curves and compared between the regions. The OC showed mature bone at birth, whereas the LS, PCF, and MCF showed rapid maturation in early childhood. However, there were significant regional differences in the ages of maturation: 1.7, 3.9, and 10.8 years for the LS, PCF, and MCF, respectively. To our knowledge, this is the first report to show regional differences in the maturation of temporal bone, which could partly account for the differences in the spreading pattern of acute mastoiditis in individuals of different ages.

Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

2018-02-01

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

Spontaneous Spreading of a Droplet: The Role of Solid Continuity and Advancing Contact Angle.

PubMed

Jiang, Youhua; Sun, Yujin; Drelich, Jaroslaw W; Choi, Chang-Hwan

2018-05-01

Spontaneous spreading of a droplet on a solid surface is poorly understood from a macroscopic level down to a molecular level. Here, we investigate the effect of surface topography and wettability on spontaneous spreading of a water droplet. Spreading force is measured for a suspended droplet that minimizes interference of kinetic energy in the spontaneous spreading during its contact with solid surfaces of discontinuous (pillar) and continuous (pore) patterns with various shapes and dimensions. Results show that a droplet cannot spread spontaneously on pillared surfaces regardless of their shapes or dimensions because of the solid discontinuity. On the contrary, a droplet on pored surfaces can undergo spontaneous spreading whose force increases with a decrease in the advancing contact angle. Theoretical models based on both the system free energy and capillary force along the contact line validate the direct and universal dependency of the spontaneous spreading force on the advancing contact angle.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

Sunflower disease compendium: Sunflower botany

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The number one challenge for global sunflower production is diseases. Sunflower is the fifth largest oilseed crop grown in temperate and subtropical areas in 72 countries and on every continent, except Antarctica. This has facilitated the spread of diseases globally. Disease control can be by chemic...

Do invasive alien plants benefit more from global environmental change than native plants?

PubMed

Liu, Yanjie; Oduor, Ayub M O; Zhang, Zhen; Manea, Anthony; Tooth, Ifeanna M; Leishman, Michelle R; Xu, Xingliang; van Kleunen, Mark

2017-08-01

Invasive alien plant species threaten native biodiversity, disrupt ecosystem functions and can cause large economic damage. Plant invasions have been predicted to further increase under ongoing global environmental change. Numerous case studies have compared the performance of invasive and native plant species in response to global environmental change components (i.e. changes in mean levels of precipitation, temperature, atmospheric CO 2 concentration or nitrogen deposition). Individually, these studies usually involve low numbers of species and therefore the results cannot be generalized. Therefore, we performed a phylogenetically controlled meta-analysis to assess whether there is a general pattern of differences in invasive and native plant performance under each component of global environmental change. We compiled a database of studies that reported performance measures for 74 invasive alien plant species and 117 native plant species in response to one of the above-mentioned global environmental change components. We found that elevated temperature and CO 2 enrichment increased the performance of invasive alien plants more strongly than was the case for native plants. Invasive alien plants tended to also have a slightly stronger positive response to increased N deposition and increased precipitation than native plants, but these differences were not significant (N deposition: P = 0.051; increased precipitation: P = 0.679). Invasive alien plants tended to have a slightly stronger negative response to decreased precipitation than native plants, although this difference was also not significant (P = 0.060). So while drought could potentially reduce plant invasion, increases in the four other components of global environmental change considered, particularly global warming and atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, may further increase the spread of invasive plants in the future. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The origin and phylogeography of dog rabies virus

PubMed Central

Bourhy, Hervé; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Dunham, Eleca J.; Dacheux, Laurent; Larrous, Florence; Huong, Vu Thi Que; Xu, Gelin; Yan, Jiaxin; Miranda, Mary Elizabeth G.; Holmes, Edward C.

2012-01-01

Rabies is a progressively fatal and incurable viral encephalitis caused by a lyssavirus infection. Almost all of the 55 000 annual rabies deaths in humans result from infection with dog rabies viruses (RABV). Despite the importance of rabies for human health, little is known about the spread of RABV in dog populations, and patterns of biodiversity have only been studied in limited geographical space. To address these questions on a global scale, we sequenced 62 new isolates and performed an extensive comparative analysis of RABV gene sequence data, representing 192 isolates sampled from 55 countries. From this, we identified six clades of RABV in non-flying mammals, each of which has a distinct geographical distribution, most likely reflecting major physical barriers to gene flow. Indeed, a detailed analysis of phylogeographic structure revealed only limited viral movement among geographical localities. Using Bayesian coalescent methods we also reveal that the sampled lineages of canid RABV derive from a common ancestor that originated within the past 1500 years. Additionally, we found no evidence for either positive selection or widespread population bottlenecks during the global expansion of canid RABV. Overall, our study reveals that the stochastic processes of genetic drift and population subdivision are the most important factors shaping the global phylogeography of canid RABV. PMID:18931062

Epidemic spreading in localized environments with recurrent mobility patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granell, Clara; Mucha, Peter J.

2018-05-01

The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of its time in localized environments and has easily identifiable mobility patterns—such as workplaces, university campuses, or schools—it is of critical importance to identify the factors controlling the rate of disease spread. Here, we present a discrete-time, metapopulation-based model to describe the transmission of susceptible-infected-susceptible-like diseases that take place in confined scenarios where the mobilities of the individuals are not random but, rather, follow clear recurrent travel patterns. This model allows analytical determination of the onset of epidemics, as well as the ability to discern which contact structures are most suited to prevent the infection to spread. It thereby determines whether common prevention mechanisms, as isolation, are worth implementing in such a scenario and their expected impact.

Respiratory-borne Disease Outbreaks in Populations: Contact Networks and the Spread of Disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourbohloul, Babak; Meyers, Lauren A.; Newman, Mark E. J.; Skowronski, Danuta M.

2005-03-01

A large class of infectious diseases spread through direct person-to-person contact. Traditional ``compartmental'' modeling in epidemiology assumes that in population groups every individual has an equal chance of spreading the disease to every other. The patterns of these contacts, however, tend to be highly heterogeneous. Explicit models of the patterns of contact among individuals in a community, contact network models, underlie a powerful approach to predicting and controlling the spread of such infectious disease and provide detailed and valuable insight into the fate and control of an outbreak. We use contact network epidemiology to predict the impact of various control policies for both a mildly contagious disease such as SARS and a more highly contagious disease such as smallpox. We demonstrate how integrating these tools into public health decision-making should facilitate more rational strategies for managing newly emerging diseases, bioterrorism and pandemic influenza in situations where empirical data are not yet available to guide decision making.

Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

2005-07-01

Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

Venus geology and tectonics - Hotspot and crustal spreading models and questions for the Magellan mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Head, James W.; Crumpler, L. S.

1990-01-01

Spacecraft and ground-based observations of Venus have revealed a geologically young and active surface - with volcanoes, rift zones, orogenic belts and evidence for hotspots and crustal spreading - yet the processes responsible for these features cannot be identified from the available data. The Magellan spacecraft will acquire an unprecedented global data set which will provide a comprehensive and well resolved view of the planet. This will permit global geological mapping, an assessment of the style and relative importance of geological processes, and will help in the understanding of links between the surface geology and mantle dynamics of this earth-like planet.

Global, Multi-Objective Trajectory Optimization With Parametric Spreading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vavrina, Matthew A.; Englander, Jacob A.; Phillips, Sean M.; Hughes, Kyle M.

2017-01-01

Mission design problems are often characterized by multiple, competing trajectory optimization objectives. Recent multi-objective trajectory optimization formulations enable generation of globally-optimal, Pareto solutions via a multi-objective genetic algorithm. A byproduct of these formulations is that clustering in design space can occur in evolving the population towards the Pareto front. This clustering can be a drawback, however, if parametric evaluations of design variables are desired. This effort addresses clustering by incorporating operators that encourage a uniform spread over specified design variables while maintaining Pareto front representation. The algorithm is demonstrated on a Neptune orbiter mission, and enhanced multidimensional visualization strategies are presented.

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Future ocean hypercapnia driven by anthropogenic amplification of the natural CO2 cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeil, B.

2016-02-01

Elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in seawater (hypercapnia) can induce neurological, physiological and behavioural deficiencies in marine animals. Prediction of the onset and evolution of hypercapnia in the ocean requires a good understanding of annual oceanic carbon dioxide variability, but relevant global observational data are sparse. Here we diagnose global ocean patterns of monthly carbon variability based on observations that allow us to examine the evolution of surface ocean CO2 levels over the entire annual cycle under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We find that some oceanic regions undergo an up to 10-fold amplification of the natural cycle of CO2 by 2100, if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations continue to rise throughout this century (RCP8.5). Projections from a suite of Earth System Climate Models are broadly consistent with the findings from our data based approach. Our predicted amplification in the annual CO2 cycle displays distinct global patterns that may expose major fisheries in the Southern, Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans to high CO2 events many decades earlier than expected from average atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We suggest that these ocean 'CO2 hotspots' evolve as a combination of the strong seasonal dynamics of CO2 and the long-term effective storage of anthropogenic CO2 that lowers the buffer capacity in those regions, causing a non-linear CO2 amplification over the annual cycle. The onset of ocean hypercapnia events (pCO2 >1000 µatm) is forecast for atmospheric CO2 concentrations that exceed 650 ppm, with hypercapnia spreading to up to one half of the surface ocean by the year 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) with potential implications for fisheries over the coming century.

Depth and Patterns of Adnexal Involvement in Primary Extramammary (Anogenital) Paget Disease: A Study of 178 Lesions From 146 Patients.

PubMed

Konstantinova, Anastasia M; Shelekhova, Ksenya V; Stewart, Colin J; Spagnolo, Dominic V; Kutzner, Heinz; Kacerovska, Denisa; Plaza, Jose A; Suster, Saul; Bouda, Jiri; Pavlovsky, Michal; Kyrpychova, Liubov; Michal, Michal; Guenova, Emmanuella; Kazakov, Dmitry V

2016-11-01

Extramammary Paget disease (EMPD) is a rare neoplasm usually presenting in the anogenital area, most commonly in the vulva. Adnexal involvement in primary EMPD is a very common feature and serves as a pathway for carcinoma to spread into deeper tissue. The depth of carcinomatous spread along the appendages and the patterns of adnexal involvement were studied in 178 lesions from 146 patients with primary EMPD. Hair follicles and eccrine ducts were the adnexa most commonly affected by carcinoma cells. The maximal depth of involvement was 3.6 mm in this series. When planning topical therapy or developing novel local treatment modalities for EMPD, this potential for significant deep spread along adnexa should be taken into account.

Nuclear Arms Control, Nonproliferation, and Counterterrorism: Impacts on Public Health

DOE PAGES

Dreicer, Mona; Pregenzer, Arian

2014-04-01

Reducing the risks of nuclear war, limiting the spread of nuclear weapons and reducing global nuclear weapons stockpiles are key national and international security goals. They are pursued through a variety of international arms control, nonproliferation and counter-terrorism treaties and agreements. These legally binding and political commitments, together with the institutional infrastructure that supports them, work to establish global norms of behavior and have limited the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Beyond the primary security objectives, reducing the likelihood of the use of nuclear weapons, preventing environmental releases of radioactive material, increasing the availability of safe and secure nuclearmore » technology for peaceful purposes, and providing scientific data relevant to predicting and managing the consequences of natural or human-caused disasters world-wide provide significant benefits to global public health.« less

Review Essay: Moving beyond Global Encounters toward Global Reciprocity: Christian Education in East Asian Perspectives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Hyun-Sook

2015-01-01

Christianity as a world religion was propagated from Europe and North America to Africa and Asia. Global Christianity spread to East Asia when Robert Morrison (1782-1843) arrived in Canton, China in 1807, and later in the late 19th-century Protestant missionaries from North America arrived in Japan and Korea. This Christianity experienced a modern…

How events determine spreading patterns: information transmission via internal and external influences on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuang; Zhan, Xiu-Xiu; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Sun, Gui-Quan; Hui, Pak Ming

2015-11-01

Recently, information transmission models motivated by the classical epidemic propagation, have been applied to a wide-range of social systems, generally assume that information mainly transmits among individuals via peer-to-peer interactions on social networks. In this paper, we consider one more approach for users to get information: the out-of-social-network influence. Empirical analyzes of eight typical events’ diffusion on a very large micro-blogging system, Sina Weibo, show that the external influence has significant impact on information spreading along with social activities. In addition, we propose a theoretical model to interpret the spreading process via both internal and external channels, considering three essential properties: (i) memory effect; (ii) role of spreaders; and (iii) non-redundancy of contacts. Experimental and mathematical results indicate that the information indeed spreads much quicker and broader with mutual effects of the internal and external influences. More importantly, the present model reveals that the event characteristic would highly determine the essential spreading patterns once the network structure is established. The results may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of the underlying dynamics of information transmission on real social networks.

Subsidence and current strain patterns on Tenerife Island (Canary Archipelago, Spain) derived from continuous GNSS time series (2008-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Alzola, A.; Martí, J.; García-Yeguas, A.; Gil, A. J.

2016-11-01

In this paper we present the current crustal deformation model of Tenerife Island derived from daily CGPS time series processing (2008-2015). Our results include the position time series, a global velocity estimation and the current crustal deformation on the island in terms of strain tensors. We detect a measurable subsidence of 1.5-2 mm/yr. in the proximities of the Cañadas-Teide-Pico Viejo (CTPV) complex. These values are higher in the central part of the complex and could be explained by a lateral spreading of the elastic lithosphere combined with the effect of the drastic descent of the water table in the island experienced during recent decades. The results show that the Anaga massif is stable in both its horizontal and vertical components. The strain tensor analysis shows a 70 nstrain/yr. E-W compression in the central complex, perpendicular to the 2004 sismo-volcanic area, and 50 nstrain/yr. SW-NE extension towards the Northeast ridge. The residual velocity and strain patterns coincide with a decline in volcanic activity since the 2004 unrest.

Massive yet grossly underestimated global costs of invasive insects

PubMed Central

Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Leroy, Boris; Bellard, Céline; Roiz, David; Albert, Céline; Fournier, Alice; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Salles, Jean-Michel; Simard, Frédéric; Courchamp, Franck

2016-01-01

Insects have presented human society with some of its greatest development challenges by spreading diseases, consuming crops and damaging infrastructure. Despite the massive human and financial toll of invasive insects, cost estimates of their impacts remain sporadic, spatially incomplete and of questionable quality. Here we compile a comprehensive database of economic costs of invasive insects. Taking all reported goods and service estimates, invasive insects cost a minimum of US$70.0 billion per year globally, while associated health costs exceed US$6.9 billion per year. Total costs rise as the number of estimate increases, although many of the worst costs have already been estimated (especially those related to human health). A lack of dedicated studies, especially for reproducible goods and service estimates, implies gross underestimation of global costs. Global warming as a consequence of climate change, rising human population densities and intensifying international trade will allow these costly insects to spread into new areas, but substantial savings could be achieved by increasing surveillance, containment and public awareness. PMID:27698460

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Spatial distribution of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: A retrospective study.

PubMed

Zhu, Bin; Fu, Yang; Liu, Jinlin; Mao, Ying

2018-01-01

China is the largest developing country with a relatively developed public health system. To further prevent and eliminate the spread of infectious diseases, China has listed 39 notifiable infectious diseases characterized by wide prevalence or great harm, and classified them into classes A, B, and C, with severity decreasing across classes. Class A diseases have been almost eradicated in China, thus making class B diseases a priority in infectious disease prevention and control. In this retrospective study, we analyze the spatial distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases that remain active all over China. Global and local Moran's I and corresponding graphic tools are adopted to explore and visualize the global and local spatial distribution of the incidence of the selected epidemics, respectively. Inter-correlations of clustering patterns of each pair of diseases and a cumulative summary of the high/low cluster frequency of the provincial units are also provided by means of figures and maps. Of the 12 most commonly notifiable class B infectious diseases, viral hepatitis and tuberculosis show high incidence rates and account for more than half of the reported cases. Almost all the diseases, except pertussis, exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation at the provincial level. All diseases feature varying spatial concentrations. Nevertheless, associations exist between spatial distribution patterns, with some provincial units displaying the same type of cluster features for two or more infectious diseases. Overall, high-low (unit with high incidence surrounded by units with high incidence, the same below) and high-high spatial cluster areas tend to be prevalent in the provincial units located in western and southwest China, whereas low-low and low-high spatial cluster areas abound in provincial units in north and east China. Despite the various distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases, certain similarities between their spatial distributions are present. Substantial evidence is available to support disease-specific, location-specific, and disease-combined interventions. Regarding provinces that show high-high/high-low patterns of multiple diseases, comprehensive interventions targeting different diseases should be established. As to the adjacent provincial units revealing similar patterns, coordinated actions need to be taken across borders.

Antimalarial drug resistance: a review of the biology and strategies to delay emergence and spread.

PubMed

Klein, E Y

2013-04-01

The emergence of resistance to former first-line antimalarial drugs has been an unmitigated disaster. In recent years, artemisinin class drugs have become standard and they are considered an essential tool for helping to eradicate the disease. However, their ability to reduce morbidity and mortality and to slow transmission requires the maintenance of effectiveness. Recently, an artemisinin delayed-clearance phenotype was described. This is believed to be the precursor to resistance and threatens local elimination and global eradication plans. Understanding how resistance emerges and spreads is important for developing strategies to contain its spread. Resistance is the result of two processes: (i) drug selection of resistant parasites; and (ii) the spread of resistance. In this review, we examine the factors that lead to both drug selection and the spread of resistance. We then examine strategies for controlling the spread of resistance, pointing out the complexities and deficiencies in predicting how resistance will spread. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. and the International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

Global rates of habitat loss and implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gallant, Alisa L.; Klaver, R.W.; Casper, G.S.; Lannoo, M.J.

2007-01-01

A large number of factors are known to affect amphibian population viability, but most authors agree that the principal causes of amphibian declines are habitat loss, alteration, and fragmentation. We provide a global assessment of land use dynamics in the context of amphibian distributions. We accomplished this by compiling global maps of amphibian species richness and recent rates of change in land cover, land use, and human population growth. The amphibian map was developed using a combination of published literature and digital databases. We used an ecoregion framework to help interpret species distributions across environmental, rather than political, boundaries. We mapped rates of land cover and use change with statistics from the World Resources Institute, refined with a global digital dataset on land cover derived from satellite data. Temporal maps of human population were developed from the World Resources Institute database and other published sources. Our resultant map of amphibian species richness illustrates that amphibians are distributed in an uneven pattern around the globe, preferring terrestrial and freshwater habitats in ecoregions that are warm and moist. Spatiotemporal patterns of human population show that, prior to the 20th century, population growth and spread was slower, most extensive in the temperate ecoregions, and largely exclusive of major regions of high amphibian richness. Since the beginning of the 20th century, human population growth has been exponential and has occurred largely in the subtropical and tropical ecoregions favored by amphibians. Population growth has been accompanied by broad-scale changes in land cover and land use, typically in support of agriculture. We merged information on land cover, land use, and human population growth to generate a composite map showing the rates at which humans have been changing the world. When compared with the map of amphibian species richness, we found that many of the regions of the earth supporting the richest assemblages of amphibians are currently undergoing the highest rates of landscape modification.

Does livestock grazing influence spatial patterns of woody plant proliferation?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Patterns of woody plant proliferation in grasslands and savannas influence rates of erosion, spread of disturbance, and nutrient pools.  Spatial pattern is the outcome of plant dispersal, recruitment, competition/facilitation, and disturbance. We quantified effects of livestock grazing, a widely cit...

Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties.

PubMed

Sun, Gui-Quan; Jusup, Marko; Jin, Zhen; Wang, Yi; Wang, Zhen

2016-12-01

Infectious diseases are a threat to human health and a hindrance to societal development. Consequently, the spread of diseases in both time and space has been widely studied, revealing the different types of spatial patterns. Transitions between patterns are an emergent property in spatial epidemics that can serve as a potential trend indicator of disease spread. Despite the usefulness of such an indicator, attempts to systematize the topic of pattern transitions have been few and far between. We present a mini-review on pattern transitions in spatial epidemics, describing the types of transitions and their underlying mechanisms. We show that pattern transitions relate to the complexity of spatial epidemics by, for example, being accompanied with phenomena such as coherence resonance and cyclic evolution. The results presented herein provide valuable insights into disease prevention and control, and may even be applicable outside epidemiology, including other branches of medical science, ecology, quantitative finance, and elsewhere. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Globalization and infectious diseases: the past and future].

PubMed

Scotto, Gaetano

2011-03-01

Globalization is a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour. Globalization is not a new phenomenon. Today the concept of globalization can be extended to include global exposure to infectious diseases, which is becoming more apparent. The aim of this article is to examine the influence of globalization on the outbreak and spread of infections in the world.

Flame spread across liquids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, Howard D.; Miller, Fletcher; Schiller, David; Sirignano, William

1995-01-01

Recent reviews of our understanding of flame spread across liquids show that there are many unresolved issues regarding the phenomenology and causal mechanisms affecting ignition susceptibility, flame spread characteristics, and flame spread rates. One area of discrepancy is the effect of buoyancy in both the uniform and pulsating spread regimes. The approach we have taken to resolving the importance of buoyancy for these flames is: (1) normal gravity (1g) and microgravity (micro g) experiments; and (2) numerical modeling at different gravitational levels. Of special interest to this work, as discussed at the previous workshop, is the determination of whether, and under what conditions, pulsating spread occurs in micro g. Microgravity offers a unique ability to modify and control the gas-phase flow pattern by utilizing a forced air flow over the pool surface.

Modelling the Growth of Swine Flu

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomson, Ian

2010-01-01

The spread of swine flu has been a cause of great concern globally. With no vaccine developed as yet, (at time of writing in July 2009) and given the fact that modern-day humans can travel speedily across the world, there are fears that this disease may spread out of control. The worst-case scenario would be one of unfettered exponential growth.…

Dynamical analysis of rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huo, Liang'an; Ma, Chenyang

2017-04-01

Rumor cause unnecessary conflicts and confusion by misleading the cognition of the public, its spreading has largely influence on human affairs. All kinds of rumors and people's suspicion are often caused by the lack of official information. Hence, the official should take a variety of channels to deny the rumors. The promotion of scientific knowledge is implemented to improve the quality of the whole nation, reduce the harm caused by rumor spreading. In this paper, regarding the process of the science education that official deny the rumor many times as periodic impulse, we propose a XWYZ rumor spreading model with impulse vaccination and time delay, and analyze the global dynamics behaviors of the model. By using the discrete dynamical system determined by the comparison theory and Floquet theorem, we show that there exists a rumor-free periodic solution. Further, we show that the rumor-free periodic solution is globally attractive under appropriate conditions. We also obtain a sufficient condition for the permanence of model. Finally, with the numerical simulation, our results indicate that large vaccination rate, short impulse period or long latent period is sufficient condition for the extinction of the rumors.

Pandemic Diseases and the Aviation Network SARS, a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufnagel, Lars; Brockmann, Dirk; Geisel, Theo

2005-03-01

We investigate the mechanisms of the worldwide spread of infectious diseases in a modern world in which humans travel on all scales. We introduce a probabilistic model which accounts for the worldwide spread of infectious diseases on the global aviation network. The analysis indicates that a forecast of the geographical spread of an epidemic is indeed possible, provided that local dynamical parameters of the disease such as the basic reproduction number are known. The model consists of local stochastic infection dynamics and stochastic transport of individuals on the worldwide aviation network which takes into account over 95% of the entire the national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the SARS outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. Despite the fact that the system is stochastic with a high number of degrees of freedom the outcome of a single simulation exhibits only a small magnitude of variability. We show that this is due to the strong heterogeneity of the network ranging from a few two over 25,000 passengers between nodes of the network. Thus, we propose that our model can be employed to predict the worldwide spread of future pandemic diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. Based on the connectivity of the aviation network we evaluate the performance of different control strategies and show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibit the global spread of infectious diseases.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Implications of the spatial dynamics of fire spread for the bistability of savanna and forest.

PubMed

Schertzer, E; Staver, A C; Levin, S A

2015-01-01

The role of fire in expanding the global distribution of savanna is well recognized. Empirical observations and modeling suggest that fire spread has a threshold response to fuel-layer continuity, which sets up a positive feedback that maintains savanna-forest bistability. However, modeling has so far failed to examine fire spread as a spatial process that interacts with vegetation. Here, we use simple, well-supported assumptions about fire spread as an infection process and its effects on trees to ask whether spatial dynamics qualitatively change the potential for savanna-forest bistability. We show that the spatial effects of fire spread are the fundamental reason that bistability is possible: because fire spread is an infection process, it exhibits a threshold response to fuel continuity followed by a rapid increase in fire size. Other ecological processes affecting fire spread may also contribute including temporal variability in demography or fire spread. Finally, including the potential for spatial aggregation increases the potential both for savanna-forest bistability and for savanna and forest to coexist in a landscape mosaic.

The Global Internet Pandemic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, Deborah Joy

2009-01-01

The global rise of Internet-based education is discussed in relation to models drawn from social studies and epidemiology. Experiential and data density models are highlighted, also the capacity for technological change, and phenomena observed in the spread of disease. The lesson of these illustrations is that even apparently permanent phenomena…

Nanolithographic control of the spatial organization of cellular adhesion receptors at the single-molecule level

PubMed Central

Schvartzman, Mark; Palma, Matteo; Sable, Julia; Abramson, Justin; Hu, Xian; Sheetz, Michael P.; Wind, Shalom J.

2011-01-01

The ability to control the placement of individual molecules promises to enable a wide range of applications and is a key challenge in nanoscience and nanotechnology. Many biological interactions, in particular, are sensitive to the precise geometric arrangement of proteins. We have developed a technique which combines molecular-scale nanolithography with site-selective biochemistry to create biomimetic arrays of individual protein binding sites. The binding sites can be arranged in heterogeneous patterns of virtually any possible geometry with a nearly unlimited number of degrees of freedom. We have used these arrays to explore how the geometric organization of the extracellular matrix (ECM) binding ligand RGD (Arg-Gly-Asp) affects cell adhesion and spreading. Systematic variation of spacing, density and cluster size of individual integrin binding sites was used to elicit different cell behavior. Cell spreading assays on arrays of different geometric arrangements revealed a dramatic increase in spreading efficiency when at least 4 liganded sites were spaced within 60 nm or less, with no dependence on global density. This points to the existence of a minimal matrix adhesion unit for fibronectin defined in space and stoichiometry. Developing an understanding of the ECM geometries that activate specific cellular functional complexes is a critical step toward controlling cell behavior. Potential practical applications range from new therapeutic treatments to the rational design of tissue scaffolds that can optimize healing without scarring. More broadly, spatial control at the single-molecule level can elucidate factors controlling individual molecular interactions and can enable synthesis of new systems based on molecular-scale architectures. PMID:21319842

Climate change and the spread of vector-borne diseases: using approximate Bayesian computation to compare invasion scenarios for the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides imicola in Italy.

PubMed

Mardulyn, Patrick; Goffredo, Maria; Conte, Annamaria; Hendrickx, Guy; Meiswinkel, Rudolf; Balenghien, Thomas; Sghaier, Soufien; Lohr, Youssef; Gilbert, Marius

2013-05-01

Bluetongue (BT) is a commonly cited example of a disease with a distribution believed to have recently expanded in response to global warming. The BT virus is transmitted to ruminants by biting midges of the genus Culicoides, and it has been hypothesized that the emergence of BT in Mediterranean Europe during the last two decades is a consequence of the recent colonization of the region by Culicoides imicola and linked to climate change. To better understand the mechanism responsible for the northward spread of BT, we tested the hypothesis of a recent colonization of Italy by C. imicola, by obtaining samples from more than 60 localities across Italy, Corsica, Southern France, and Northern Africa (the hypothesized source point for the recent invasion of C. imicola), and by genotyping them with 10 newly identified microsatellite loci. The patterns of genetic variation within and among the sampled populations were characterized and used in a rigorous approximate Bayesian computation framework to compare three competing historical hypotheses related to the arrival and establishment of C. imicola in Italy. The hypothesis of an ancient presence of the insect vector was strongly favoured by this analysis, with an associated P ≥ 99%, suggesting that causes other than the northward range expansion of C. imicola may have supported the emergence of BT in southern Europe. Overall, this study illustrates the potential of molecular genetic markers for exploring the assumed link between climate change and the spread of diseases. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Relationships between landscape pattern and land surface temperature and their applications to the study of West Nile Virus: As case studies in cities of Indianapolis and Chicago, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Hua

A new synthesis of remote sensing and landscape ecology approaches was developed to establish relationships between the landscape patterns and land surface temperatures (LST) in the city of Indianapolis, Indiana, United States. Land use and land cover (LULC) and LST images were derived from Terra Satellite's Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. An analytical procedure using landscape metrics was developed, applying configuration analysis of landscape patterns and land surface temperature zones. Detailed landscape pattern analyses at the landscape and class scales were conducted using landscape metrics in the City of Indianapolis. The effects of spatial resolution on the identification of the relationship were examined in the same city. The best level of equalization between the LULC and LST maps was determined based on minimum distance analysis in landscape metrics space. The analyses of relationships between the landscape patterns and land surface temperatures, and scaling effects were applied to the spread of West Nile Virus (WNV) in the City of Chicago, Illinois. Results show that urban, forest, and grassland were the main landscape components in Indianapolis. They possessed relatively higher fractal dimensions but lower spatial aggregation levels in April 5, 2004, June 16, 2001, and October 3, 2000, but not in February 6, 2006. Obvious seasonal differences existed with the most distinct landscape pattern detected on February 6, 2006. Urban was the dominant LULC type in high-temperature zones, while water and vegetation mainly fell in low-temperature zones. For each individual date, the metrics of LST zones apparently corresponded to the metrics of LULC types. In the study of scaling-up effect analysis, Patch Percentage, Patch Density, and Landscape Shape index were found to be able to effectively quantify the spatial changes of LULC types and temperature zones at different scales without contradiction. Urban, forest, and grassland in each season were more easily affected by the process in Patch Density and Landscape Shape index. Ninety meters was believed to be the optimal spatial resolution to examine relationships between landscape patterns and LSTs in the City of Indianapolis. In the study of the spread of West Nile Virus in the City of Chicago, WNV was found to have been spread throughout all of Cook County since 2001. Landscape factors, like landscape aggregation index and areas of urban, grass, and water showed a strong correlation with the number of WNV infections. Socioeconomic conditions, like population above 65 years old also showed a strong relationship with the spread of WNV in Cook County. Thermal conditions of water had a lower but still significant correlation to the spread of WNV. This research offers an opportunity to explore the mechanism of interaction between urban landscape patterns and land surface temperatures at different spatial scales, and show the effects of landscape pattern and land surface temperature on the spread of West Nile Virus. This study can be useful for urban planning and environmental management practices in the studied areas. It also contributes to public health management and protection.

Smouldering Subsurface Fires in the Earth System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rein, Guillermo

2010-05-01

Smouldering fires, the slow, low-temperature, flameless form of combustion, are an important phenomena in the Earth system. These fires propagate slowly through organic layers of the forest ground and are responsible for 50% or more of the total biomass consumed during wildfires. Only after the 2002 study of the 1997 extreme haze event in South-East Asia, the scientific community recognised the environmental and economic threats posed by subsurface fires. This was caused by the spread of vast biomass fires in Indonesia, burning below the surface for months during the El Niño climate event. It has been calculated that these fires released between 0.81 and 2.57 Gton of carbon gases (13-40% of global emissions). Large smouldering fires are rare events at the local scale but occur regularly at a global scale. Once ignited, they are particularly difficult to extinguish despite extensive rains or fire-fighting attempts and can persist for long periods of time (months, years) spreading over very extensive areas of forest and deep into the soil. Indeed, these are the oldest continuously burning fires on Earth. Earth scientists are interested in smouldering fires because they destroy large amounts of biomass and cause greater damage to the soil ecosystem than flaming fires do. Moreover, these fires cannot be detected with current satellite remote sensing technologies causing inconsistencies between emission inventories and model predictions. Organic soils sustain smouldering fire (hummus, duff, peat and coal) which total carbon pool exceeds that of the world's forests or the atmosphere. This have important implications for climate change. Warmer temperatures at high latitudes are resulting in unprecedented permafrost thaw that is leaving large soil carbon pools exposed to fires. Because the CO2 flux from peat fires has been measured to be about 3000 times larger that the natural degradation flux, permafrost thaw is a risk for greater carbon release by fire and subsequently influence carbon-climate feedbacks. This presentation will revise the current knowledge on smouldering fires in the Earth system regarding ignition, spread patterns and emissions. It will explain the key differences between shallow and deep fires, and flaming fires.

Essential Use Cases for Pedagogical Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Derntl, Michael; Botturi, Luca

2006-01-01

Coming from architecture, through computer science, pattern-based design spread into other disciplines and is nowadays recognized as a powerful way of capturing and reusing effective design practice. However, current pedagogical pattern approaches lack widespread adoption, both by users and authors, and are still limited to individual initiatives.…

Anthropogenic antibiotic resistance genes mobilization to the polar regions.

PubMed

Hernández, Jorge; González-Acuña, Daniel

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic influences in the southern polar region have been rare, but lately microorganisms associated with humans have reached Antarctica, possibly from military bases, fishing boats, scientific expeditions, and/or ship-borne tourism. Studies of seawater in areas of human intervention and proximal to fresh penguin feces revealed the presence of Escherichia coli strains least resistant to antibiotics in penguins, whereas E. coli from seawater elsewhere showed resistance to one or more of the following antibiotics: ampicillin, tetracycline, streptomycin, and trim-sulfa. In seawater samples, bacteria were found carrying extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-type CTX-M genes in which multilocus sequencing typing (MLST) showed different sequence types (STs), previously reported in humans. In the Arctic, on the contrary, people have been present for a long time, and the presence of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) appears to be much more wide-spread than was previously reported. Studies of E coli from Arctic birds (Bering Strait) revealed reduced susceptibility to antibiotics, but one globally spreading clone of E. coli genotype O25b-ST131, carrying genes of ESBL-type CTX-M, was identified. In the few years between sample collections in the same area, differences in resistance pattern were observed, with E. coli from birds showing resistance to a maximum of five different antibiotics. Presence of resistance-type ESBLs (TEM, SHV, and CTX-M) in E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae was also confirmed by specified PCR methods. MLST revealed that those bacteria carried STs that connect them to previously described strains in humans. In conclusion, bacteria previously related to humans could be found in relatively pristine environments, and presently human-associated, antibiotic-resistant bacteria have reached a high global level of distribution that they are now found even in the polar regions.

Determining geographical spread pattern of MERS-CoV by distance method using Kimura model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiroch, Siti; Rohmatullah, Arif

2017-03-01

MERS-CoV or generally called as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, a respiratory disease syndrome caused by a corona virus that attacks the respiratory tract ranging from mild to severe acute indication of fever, cough and shortness of breath. The cases happened relate to the countries in the Arabian Peninsula (Middle East) and there were 356 deaths have been reported due to the spread of the epidemic MERS. The data used in the case of MERS are the data DNA sequences taken from Genbank, the online database of the United States that stores the results of molecular biological experiments from all over the world (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov). In this case, bioinformatics plays an important role of reading sequences of DNA and genetic information by using the main device in the form of software that is supported by the availability of the Internet, while the analysis there in made and proven with mathematical methods. In similar research conducted by molecular biologists and physicians, the process of DNA sequencing is done with software that is already available like BLAST. In order to determine the MERS geographical distribution patterns in the Arabian Peninsula is done with program Clustal W, Bayesian, Phylip, etc. In this study, the writer use the Matlab simulation for all processes starting sequence alignment, counting the number of transitions and transversion substitutions for each sequence and its location up to the process of forming a phylogenetic tree that figures out the pattern of spread of the epidemic MERS. Mathematical analysis performed on a decline in the formula is to find Kimura evolutionary models and the process of forming a phylogenetic tree (the pattern of the epidemic MERS distribution) with neighbor joining algorithm. Finally it was obtained the pattern of geographical spread with 6 groups epidemic of MERS which ultimately turns out that all the MERS viruses that were spread in the Arabian Peninsula everything are almost the same as the virus sequence found in al-Hasa.

Travelling Policies and Global Buzzwords: How International Non-Governmental Organizations and Charities Spread the Word about Early Childhood in the Global South

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penn, Helen

2011-01-01

This article is based on a web-search commissioned by an international charity to review the work of international non-governmental organizations (INGOs) and charities which promote and support early childhood education and care (ECEC) in the global South. The article examines examples of such initiatives. It is suggested that there is…

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases.

Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greve, Peter; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2018-03-01

Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below (i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme changes in regional water availability.

Ocean Surface Winds Drive Dynamics of Transoceanic Aerial Movements

PubMed Central

Felicísimo, Ángel M.; Muñoz, Jesús; González-Solis, Jacob

2008-01-01

Global wind patterns influence dispersal and migration processes of aerial organisms, propagules and particles, which ultimately could determine the dynamics of colonizations, invasions or spread of pathogens. However, studying how wind-mediated movements actually happen has been hampered so far by the lack of high resolution global wind data as well as the impossibility to track aerial movements. Using concurrent data on winds and actual pathways of a tracked seabird, here we show that oceanic winds define spatiotemporal pathways and barriers for large-scale aerial movements. We obtained wind data from NASA SeaWinds scatterometer to calculate wind cost (impedance) models reflecting the resistance to the aerial movement near the ocean surface. We also tracked the movements of a model organism, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a pelagic bird known to perform long distance migrations. Cost models revealed that distant areas can be connected through “wind highways” that do not match the shortest great circle routes. Bird routes closely followed the low-cost “wind-highways” linking breeding and wintering areas. In addition, we found that a potential barrier, the near surface westerlies in the Atlantic sector of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), temporally hindered meridional trans-equatorial movements. Once the westerlies vanished, birds crossed the ITCZ to their winter quarters. This study provides a novel approach to investigate wind-mediated movements in oceanic environments and shows that large-scale migration and dispersal processes over the oceans can be largely driven by spatiotemporal wind patterns. PMID:18698354

Ocean surface winds drive dynamics of transoceanic aerial movements.

PubMed

Felicísimo, Angel M; Muñoz, Jesús; González-Solis, Jacob

2008-08-13

Global wind patterns influence dispersal and migration processes of aerial organisms, propagules and particles, which ultimately could determine the dynamics of colonizations, invasions or spread of pathogens. However, studying how wind-mediated movements actually happen has been hampered so far by the lack of high resolution global wind data as well as the impossibility to track aerial movements. Using concurrent data on winds and actual pathways of a tracked seabird, here we show that oceanic winds define spatiotemporal pathways and barriers for large-scale aerial movements. We obtained wind data from NASA SeaWinds scatterometer to calculate wind cost (impedance) models reflecting the resistance to the aerial movement near the ocean surface. We also tracked the movements of a model organism, the Cory's shearwater (Calonectris diomedea), a pelagic bird known to perform long distance migrations. Cost models revealed that distant areas can be connected through "wind highways" that do not match the shortest great circle routes. Bird routes closely followed the low-cost "wind-highways" linking breeding and wintering areas. In addition, we found that a potential barrier, the near surface westerlies in the Atlantic sector of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), temporally hindered meridional trans-equatorial movements. Once the westerlies vanished, birds crossed the ITCZ to their winter quarters. This study provides a novel approach to investigate wind-mediated movements in oceanic environments and shows that large-scale migration and dispersal processes over the oceans can be largely driven by spatiotemporal wind patterns.

The significance of Antarctica for studies of global geodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, R.

2007-01-01

Antarctica has geometric significance for global plate kinematic studies, because it links seafloor spreading systems of the African hemisphere (Indian and Atlantic Oceans) with those of the Pacific. Inferences of plate motions back to 44 Ma, around the onset of rapid spreading south of Australia and formation of a new boundary through New Zealand, are consistent with Antarctic rifting and formation of the Adare Basin during 44-26 Ma (i.e., no additional plate motions are required in the South Pacific). The time period 52-44 Ma represents a profound global and South Pacific tectonic change, and significant details remain unresolved. For 74 Ma a significant nonclosure of the South Pacific plate-motion circuit is identified if Antarctic motion is not included. Alternate inferences of motion through Antarctica during the interval 74-44 Ma imply significantly different subduction volumes and directions around the Pacific, and imply different relative motions between hotspots

Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

PubMed Central

Messina, Jane P; Kraemer, Moritz UG; Brady, Oliver J; Pigott, David M; Shearer, Freya M; Weiss, Daniel J; Golding, Nick; Ruktanonchai, Corrine W; Gething, Peter W; Cohn, Emily; Brownstein, John S; Khan, Kamran; Tatem, Andrew J; Jaenisch, Thomas; Murray, Christopher JL; Marinho, Fatima; Scott, Thomas W; Hay, Simon I

2016-01-01

Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.15272.001 PMID:27090089

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Global phylogeography and evolutionary history of Shigella dysenteriae type 1.

PubMed

Njamkepo, Elisabeth; Fawal, Nizar; Tran-Dien, Alicia; Hawkey, Jane; Strockbine, Nancy; Jenkins, Claire; Talukder, Kaisar A; Bercion, Raymond; Kuleshov, Konstantin; Kolínská, Renáta; Russell, Julie E; Kaftyreva, Lidia; Accou-Demartin, Marie; Karas, Andreas; Vandenberg, Olivier; Mather, Alison E; Mason, Carl J; Page, Andrew J; Ramamurthy, Thandavarayan; Bizet, Chantal; Gamian, Andrzej; Carle, Isabelle; Sow, Amy Gassama; Bouchier, Christiane; Wester, Astrid Louise; Lejay-Collin, Monique; Fonkoua, Marie-Christine; Le Hello, Simon; Blaser, Martin J; Jernberg, Cecilia; Ruckly, Corinne; Mérens, Audrey; Page, Anne-Laure; Aslett, Martin; Roggentin, Peter; Fruth, Angelika; Denamur, Erick; Venkatesan, Malabi; Bercovier, Hervé; Bodhidatta, Ladaporn; Chiou, Chien-Shun; Clermont, Dominique; Colonna, Bianca; Egorova, Svetlana; Pazhani, Gururaja P; Ezernitchi, Analia V; Guigon, Ghislaine; Harris, Simon R; Izumiya, Hidemasa; Korzeniowska-Kowal, Agnieszka; Lutyńska, Anna; Gouali, Malika; Grimont, Francine; Langendorf, Céline; Marejková, Monika; Peterson, Lorea A M; Perez-Perez, Guillermo; Ngandjio, Antoinette; Podkolzin, Alexander; Souche, Erika; Makarova, Mariia; Shipulin, German A; Ye, Changyun; Žemličková, Helena; Herpay, Mária; Grimont, Patrick A D; Parkhill, Julian; Sansonetti, Philippe; Holt, Kathryn E; Brisse, Sylvain; Thomson, Nicholas R; Weill, François-Xavier

2016-03-21

Together with plague, smallpox and typhus, epidemics of dysentery have been a major scourge of human populations for centuries(1). A previous genomic study concluded that Shigella dysenteriae type 1 (Sd1), the epidemic dysentery bacillus, emerged and spread worldwide after the First World War, with no clear pattern of transmission(2). This is not consistent with the massive cyclic dysentery epidemics reported in Europe during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries(1,3,4) and the first isolation of Sd1 in Japan in 1897(5). Here, we report a whole-genome analysis of 331 Sd1 isolates from around the world, collected between 1915 and 2011, providing us with unprecedented insight into the historical spread of this pathogen. We show here that Sd1 has existed since at least the eighteenth century and that it swept the globe at the end of the nineteenth century, diversifying into distinct lineages associated with the First World War, Second World War and various conflicts or natural disasters across Africa, Asia and Central America. We also provide a unique historical perspective on the evolution of antibiotic resistance over a 100-year period, beginning decades before the antibiotic era, and identify a prevalent multiple antibiotic-resistant lineage in South Asia that was transmitted in several waves to Africa, where it caused severe outbreaks of disease.

Identification of a New Genotype of African Swine Fever Virus in Domestic Pigs from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Achenbach, J E; Gallardo, C; Nieto-Pelegrín, E; Rivera-Arroyo, B; Degefa-Negi, T; Arias, M; Jenberie, S; Mulisa, D D; Gizaw, D; Gelaye, E; Chibssa, T R; Belaye, A; Loitsch, A; Forsa, M; Yami, M; Diallo, A; Soler, A; Lamien, C E; Sánchez-Vizcaíno, J M

2017-10-01

African swine fever (ASF) is an important emerging transboundary animal disease (TAD), which currently has an impact on many countries in Africa, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and the Russian Federation. The current situation in Europe shows the ability of the virus to rapidly spread, which stands to threaten the global swine industry. At present, there is no viable vaccine to minimize spread of the disease and stamping out is the main source of control. In February 2011, Ethiopia had reported its first suspected outbreaks of ASF. Genomic analyses of the collected ASF virus (ASFV) strains were undertaken using 23 tissue samples collected from domestic swine in Ethiopia from 2011 to 2014. The analysis of Ethiopian ASFVs partial p72 gene sequence showed the identification of a new genotype, genotype XXIII, that shares a common ancestor with genotypes IX and X, which comprise isolates circulating in Eastern African countries and the Republic of Congo. Analysis of the p54 gene also followed the p72 pattern and the deduced amino acid sequence of the central variable region (CVR) of the B602L gene showed novel tetramer repeats not previously characterized. © 2016 The Authors. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The Role of Tourism and Recreation in the Spread of Non-Native Species: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Anderson, Lucy G.; Rocliffe, Steve; Haddaway, Neal R.; Dunn, Alison M.

2015-01-01

Managing the pathways by which non-native species are introduced and spread is considered the most effective way of preventing species invasions. Tourism and outdoor recreation involve the frequent congregation of people, vehicles and vessels from geographically diverse areas. They are therefore perceived to be major pathways for the movement of non-native species, and ones that will become increasingly important with the continued growth of these sectors. However, a global assessment of the relationship between tourism activities and the introduction of non-native species–particularly in freshwater and marine environments–is lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of tourism and outdoor recreation on non-native species in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Our results provide quantitative evidence that the abundance and richness of non-native species are significantly higher in sites where tourist activities take place than in control sites. The pattern was consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments; across a variety of vectors (e.g. horses, hikers, yachts); and across a range of taxonomic groups. These results highlight the need for widespread biosecurity interventions to prevent the inadvertent introduction of invasive non-native species (INNS) as the tourism and outdoor recreation sectors grow. PMID:26485300

The Role of Tourism and Recreation in the Spread of Non-Native Species: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Anderson, Lucy G; Rocliffe, Steve; Haddaway, Neal R; Dunn, Alison M

2015-01-01

Managing the pathways by which non-native species are introduced and spread is considered the most effective way of preventing species invasions. Tourism and outdoor recreation involve the frequent congregation of people, vehicles and vessels from geographically diverse areas. They are therefore perceived to be major pathways for the movement of non-native species, and ones that will become increasingly important with the continued growth of these sectors. However, a global assessment of the relationship between tourism activities and the introduction of non-native species-particularly in freshwater and marine environments-is lacking. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the impact of tourism and outdoor recreation on non-native species in terrestrial, marine and freshwater environments. Our results provide quantitative evidence that the abundance and richness of non-native species are significantly higher in sites where tourist activities take place than in control sites. The pattern was consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine environments; across a variety of vectors (e.g. horses, hikers, yachts); and across a range of taxonomic groups. These results highlight the need for widespread biosecurity interventions to prevent the inadvertent introduction of invasive non-native species (INNS) as the tourism and outdoor recreation sectors grow.

Globalization, Corporatism, and Critical Language Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Luke, Allan; Luke, Carmen; Graham, Phil

2007-01-01

This article explores the impacts of economic and cultural globalization on language and language education. It acknowledges the spread of English and the negative impacts of this upon other languages and language communities. The case is made that new conditions of economic dominance by multinational corporations raise the stakes for schooling…

Haplotype analysis of global chili thrips (Schirtothrips dorsalis) populations using the metazoan barcode

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scirtothirps dorsalis is a globally invasive polyphagous crop pest infesting several major field and ornamental crops. Established in Florida since 2005, it had spread to Texas within one year. Establishing a putative source locality of the US population would help stakeholders target effective cont...

Haplotype analysis of global chilli thrips (Scirtothrips dorsalis) populations using the metazoan barcode

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Scirtothirps dorsalis is a globally invasive polyphagous crop pest infesting several major field and ornamental crops. Established in Florida since 2005, it had spread to Texas within one year. Establishing a putative source locality of the US population would help stakeholders target effective cont...

The epidemiology and spread of drug resistant human influenza viruses.

PubMed

Hurt, Aeron C

2014-10-01

Significant changes in the circulation of antiviral-resistant influenza viruses have occurred over the last decade. The emergence and continued circulation of adamantane-resistant A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses mean that the adamantanes are no longer recommended for use. Resistance to the newer class of drugs, the neuraminidase inhibitors, is typically associated with poorer viral replication and transmission. But 'permissive' mutations, that compensated for impairment of viral function in A(H1N1) viruses during 2007/2008, enabled them to acquire the H275Y NA resistance mutation without fitness loss, resulting in their rapid global spread. Permissive mutations now appear to be present in A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses thereby increasing the risk that oseltamivir-resistant A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses may also spread globally, a concerning scenario given that oseltamivir is the most widely used influenza antiviral. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Natasha; Gupta, Arvind Kumar

2017-04-01

The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR ​(susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered) epidemic spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.

Modeling the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, Shunjiang; Weng, Wenguo; Zhang, Hui

2011-11-01

We investigate by mean-field analysis and extensive simulations the effects of social impact on epidemic spreading in various typical networks with two types of nodes: active nodes and passive nodes, of which the behavior patterns are modeled according to the social impact theory. In this study, nodes are not only the media to spread the virus, but also disseminate their opinions on the virus-whether there is a need for certain self-protection measures to be taken to reduce the risk of being infected. Our results indicate that the interaction between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics can have significant influences on the spreading of infectious diseases and related applications, such as the implementation of prevention and control measures against the infectious diseases.

Interpretation of bathymetric and magnetic data from the easternmost segment of Australian-Antarctic Ridge, 156°-161°E

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H.; Kim, S.; Park, S.

2013-12-01

From 2011 to 2013, Korea Polar Research Institute (KOPRI) conducted a series of geophysical and geochemical expeditions on the longest and easternmost segment of Australian-Antarctic Ridge, located at 61°-63°S, and 156°-161°E. This ridge segment plays an important role in constraining the tectonics of the Antarctic plate. Using IBRV ARAON, the detailed bathymetric data and eleven total magnetic profiles were collected. The studied ridge has spread NNW-SSE direction and tends to be shallower to the west and deeper to the east. The western side of the ridge (156°-157.50°E) shows a broad axial high and a plenty of seamounts as an indicative of massive volcanism. Near the center of the ridge (158°-159°E), a seamount chain is formed stretching toward the south from the ridge. Also, the symmetric seafloor fabric is clearly observed at the eastern portion (158.50°-160°E) of the seamount chain. From the topographic change along the ridge axis, the western part of the ridge appears to have a sufficient magma supply. On the contrary, the eastern side of the ridge (160°-161°E) is characterized by axial valley and relatively deeper depth. Nevertheless, the observed total magnetic field anomalies exhibit symmetric patterns across the ridge axis. Although there have not been enough magnetic survey lines, the spreading rates of the ridge are estimated as the half-spreading rate of 37.7 mm/y and 35.3 mm/y for the western portion of the ridge and 42.3 mm/y for the eastern portion. The studied ridge can be categorized as an intermediate spreading ridge, confirming previous studies based on the spreading rate of global ridge system. Here we will present the preliminary results on bathymetric changes along the ridge axis and its relationship with melt supply distribution, and detailed magnetic properties of the ridge constrained by the observed total field anomalies.

WMD Forecasting in Historical and Contemporary Perspective

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

a nuclear weapon; Use of a nuclear weapon; Withdrawal from the NPT; Emergence of a nuclear-exports grey market; Widespread dissemination of...Many studies saw technology diffusion and the globalization of commerce as ineluctable forces that contribute to the spread of nuclear (and other...engineering diffuses , the spread of biological weapon capabilities among state actors can be expected to expand in advanced and developing states. This

Temporal and interspecific variation in rates of spread for insect species invading Europe during the last 200 years

Treesearch

Alain Roques; Marie-Anne Auger-Rozenberg; Tim M. Blackburn; Jeff Garnas; Petr Pysek; Wolfgang Rabitsch; David M. Richardson; Michael J. Wingfield; Andrew M. Liebhold; Richard P. Duncan

2016-01-01

Globalization is triggering an increase in the establishment of alien insects in Europe, with several species having substantial ecological and economic impacts. We investigated long-term changes in rates of species spread following establishment. We used the total area of countries invaded by 1171 insect species for which the date of first record in Europe is known,...

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study.

PubMed

Otsuki, Shiori; Nishiura, Hiroshi

An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.

Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014: A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

PubMed Central

Otsuki, Shiori

2016-01-01

Background An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013–16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission. PMID:27657544

The perception of subjective contours and neon color spreading figures in young infants.

PubMed

Kavsek, Michael

2009-02-01

The goal of the present habituation-dishabituation study was to explore sensitivity to subjective contours and neon color spreading patterns in infants. The first experiment was a replication of earlier investigations that showed evidence that even young infants are capable of perceiving subjective contours. Participants 4 months of age were habituated to a subjective Kanizsa square and were tested afterward for their ability to differentiate between the subjective square and a nonsubjective pattern that was constructed by rotating some of the inducing elements. Data analysis indicated a significant preference for the nonsubjective pattern. A control condition ensured that this result was not generated by the difference in figural symmetry or by the local differences between the test displays. In the second experiment, infant perception of a neon color spreading display was analyzed. Again, 4-month-old infants could discriminate between the illusory figure and a nonillusory pattern. Furthermore, infants in a control group did not respond to the difference in symmetry and the local differences between two nonillusory targets. Overall, the results show that young infants respond to illusory figures that are generated by either implicit T-junctions (Experiment 1) or implicit X-junctions (Experiment 2). The findings are interpreted against the background of the neurophysiological model proposed by Grossberg and Mingolla (1985).

Patterns of drought-induced embolism formation and spread in living walnut saplings visualized using x-ray microtomography

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

During drought, xylem conduits are susceptible to hydraulic dysfunction caused by cavitation and gas embolism. Embolism formation and spread within xylem is dependent on conduit structure and network connectivity, but detailed spatial analysis has been limited due to a lack of non-destructive method...

Palatine tonsillar metastasis of a small pulmonary adenocarcinoma showing an invasive micropapillary carcinoma pattern and Pagetoid spread at the tonsil: a case suggesting retrograde lymphatic metastasis from bulky lymph node metastases of the neck.

PubMed

Tajima, Shogo; Koda, Kenji

2015-01-01

Metastasis rarely occurs in the palatine tonsils. Among primary pulmonary carcinoma subtypes, small cell carcinoma more frequently metastasizes to this site. Herein, we present an exceedingly rare case of a small pulmonary adenocarcinoma that metastasized to the cervical lymph nodes and the right palatine tonsil in a 62-year-old man. In spite of the small size of the primary site, such extensive metastasis may have occurred because of the invasive micropapillary carcinoma pattern seen in the metastatic sites. The manner of metastasis to the palatine tonsil was considered retrograde lymphatic metastasis originating from carcinoma cells in the cervical lymph nodes. Furthermore, Pagetoid spread was observed at the palatine tonsil. Although there have been only a few cases showing retrograde lymphatic metastasis and Pagetoid spread at the metastatic site, we should be careful when speculating about the primary site based on such metastatic sites, especially when dealing with a biopsy sample exhibiting Pagetoid spread.

Spread of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, and nonnative rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Frissell, Christopher A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Fred W. Allendorf,

2003-01-01

We examined spatial and temporal patterns of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, and nonnative rainbow trout, O. mykiss, in streams of the Flathead River system in Montana, U.S.A. We detected hybridization in 24 of 42 sites sampled from 1998 to 2001. We found new Oncorhynchus mykiss introgression in seven of 11 sample populations that were determined to be nonhybridized in 1984. Patterns of spatial autocorrelation and linkage disequilibrium indicated that hybridization is spreading among sites and is advancing primarily via post-F1 hybrids. Although hybridized populations were distributed widely throughout the study area, the genetic contribution from O. mykiss decreased with increasing upstream distance from the Flathead River mainstem, suggesting that O. mykiss introgression is spreading in an upstream direction. The spread of hybridization may be constrained more by demographic than by environmental factors, given that (i) hybridized populations generally encompassed the range of environmental variability in nonhybridized populations, and (ii) hybridization status was more strongly associated with neighborhood statistics than measured environmental gradients.

Spread of Ebola disease with susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizah, Afina; Widyaningsih, Purnami; Retno Sari Saputro, Dewi

2017-06-01

Ebola is a deadly infectious disease and has caused an epidemic on several countries in West Africa. Mathematical modeling to study the spread of Ebola disease has been developed, including through models susceptible infected removed (SIR) and susceptible exposed infected removed (SEIR). Furthermore, susceptible exposed infected isolated recovered (SEIIhR) model has been derived. The aims of this research are to derive SEIIhR model for Ebola disease, to determine the patterns of its spread, to determine the equilibrium point and stability of the equilibrium point using phase plane analysis, and also to apply the SEIIhR model on Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone in 2014. The SEIIhR model is a differential equation system. Pattern of ebola disease spread with SEIIhR model is solution of the differential equation system. The equilibrium point of SEIIhR model is unique and it is a disease-free equilibrium point that stable. Application of the model is based on the data Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. The free-disease equilibrium point (Se; Ee; Ie; Ihe; Re )=(5743865, 0, 0, 0, 0) is stable.

The opportunistic transmission of wireless worms between mobile devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, C. J.; Nekovee, M.

2008-12-01

The ubiquity of portable wireless-enabled computing and communications devices has stimulated the emergence of malicious codes (wireless worms) that are capable of spreading between spatially proximal devices. The potential exists for worms to be opportunistically transmitted between devices as they move around, so human mobility patterns will have an impact on epidemic spread. The scenario we address in this paper is proximity attacks from fleetingly in-contact wireless devices with short-range communication range, such as Bluetooth-enabled smart phones. An individual-based model of mobile devices is introduced and the effect of population characteristics and device behaviour on the outbreak dynamics is investigated. The model uses straight-line motion to achieve population, though it is recognised that this is a highly simplified representation of human mobility patterns. We show that the contact rate can be derived from the underlying mobility model and, through extensive simulation, that mass-action epidemic models remain applicable to worm spreading in the low density regime studied here. The model gives useful analytical expressions against which more refined simulations of worm spread can be developed and tested.

Climate change: effects on animal disease systems and implications for surveillance and control.

PubMed

de La Rocque, S; Rioux, J A; Slingenbergh, J

2008-08-01

Climate driven and other changes in landscape structure and texture, plus more general factors, may create favourable ecological niches for emerging diseases. Abiotic factors impact on vectors, reservoirs and pathogen bionomics and their ability to establish in new ecosystems. Changes in climatic patterns and in seasonal conditions may affect disease behaviour in terms of spread pattern, diffusion range, amplification and persistence in novel habitats. Pathogen invasion may result in the emergence of novel disease complexes, presenting major challenges for the sustainability of future animal agriculture at the global level. In this paper, some of the ecological mechanisms underlying the impact of climatic change on disease transmission and disease spread are further described. Potential effects of different climatic variables on pathogens and host population dynamics and distribution are complex to assess, and different approaches are used to describe the underlying epidemiological processes and the availability of ecological niches for pathogens and vectors. The invasion process can disrupt the long-term co-evolution of species. Pathogens adhering to an r-type strategy (e.g. RNA viruses) may be more inclined to encroach on a novel niche resulting from climate change. However, even when linkage between disease dynamics and climate change are relatively strong, there are other factors changing disease behaviour, and these should be accounted for as well. Overall vulnerability of a given ecosystem is a key variable in this regard. The impact of climate-driven changes varies in different parts of the world and in the different agro-climatic zones. Perhaps priority should go to those geographical areas where the integrity of the ecosystem is most severely affected and the adaptability, in terms of robustness and sustainability of response, relatively low.

Wave Gradiometry for the Central U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

liu, Y.; Holt, W. E.

2013-12-01

Wave gradiometry is a new technique utilizing the shape of seismic wave fields captured by USArray transportable stations to determine fundamental wave propagation characteristics. The horizontal and vertical wave displacements, spatial gradients and time derivatives of displacement are linearly linked by two coefficients which can be used to infer wave slowness, back azimuth, radiation pattern and geometrical spreading. The reducing velocity method from Langston [2007] is applied to pre-process our data. Spatial gradients of the shifted displacement fields are estimated using bi-cubic splines [Beavan and Haines, 2001]. Using singular value decomposition, the spatial gradients are then inverted to iteratively solve for wave parameters mentioned above. Numerical experiments with synthetic data sets provided by Princeton University's Neal Real Time Global Seismicity Portal are conducted to test the algorithm stability and evaluate errors. Our results based on real records in the central U.S. show that, the average Rayleigh wave phase velocity ranges from 3.8 to 4.2 km/s for periods from 60-125s, and 3.6 to 4.0 km/s for periods from 25-60s, which is consistent with earth model. Geometrical spreading and radiation pattern show similar features between different frequency bands. Azimuth variations are partially correlated with phase velocity change. Finally, we calculated waveform amplitude and spatial gradient uncertainties to determine formal errors in the estimated wave parameters. Further effort will be put into calculating shear wave velocity structure with respect to depth in the studied area. The wave gradiometry method is now being employed across the USArray using real observations and results obtained to date are for stations in eastern portion of the U.S. Rayleigh wave phase velocity derived from Aug, 20th, 2011 Vanuatu earthquake for periods from 100 - 125 s.

Processes affecting altitudinal distribution of invasive Ageratina adenophora in western Himalaya: The role of local adaptation and the importance of different life-cycle stages

PubMed Central

Kühn, Ingolf; Ahmad, Mustaqeem; Michalski, Stefan; Auge, Harald

2017-01-01

The spread of invasive plants along elevational gradients is considered a threat to fragile mountain ecosystems, but it can also provide the opportunity to better understand some of the basic processes driving the success of invasive species. Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) is an invasive plant of global importance and has a broad distribution along elevational gradients in the Western Himalayas. Our study aimed at understanding the role of evolutionary processes (e.g. local adaptation and clinal differentiation) and different life history stages in shaping the distribution pattern of the invasive plant along an elevational gradient in the Western Himalaya. We carried out extensive distributional surveys, established a reciprocal transplant experiment with common gardens at three elevational levels, and measured a suite of traits related to germination, growth, reproduction and phenology. Our results showed a lack of local adaptation, and we did not find any evidence for clinal differentiation in any measured trait except a rather weak signal for plant height. We found that seed germination was the crucial life-cycle transition in determining the lower range limit while winter mortality of plants shaped the upper range limit in our study area, thus explaining the hump shaped distribution pattern. Differences in trait values between gardens for most traits indicated a high degree of phenotypic plasticity. Possible causes such as apomixis, seed dispersal among sites, and pre-adaptation might have confounded evolutionary processes to act upon. Our results suggest that the success and spread of Ageratina adenophora are dependent on different life history stages at different elevations that are controlled by abiotic conditions. PMID:29125852

Processes affecting altitudinal distribution of invasive Ageratina adenophora in western Himalaya: The role of local adaptation and the importance of different life-cycle stages.

PubMed

Datta, Arunava; Kühn, Ingolf; Ahmad, Mustaqeem; Michalski, Stefan; Auge, Harald

2017-01-01

The spread of invasive plants along elevational gradients is considered a threat to fragile mountain ecosystems, but it can also provide the opportunity to better understand some of the basic processes driving the success of invasive species. Ageratina adenophora (Asteraceae) is an invasive plant of global importance and has a broad distribution along elevational gradients in the Western Himalayas. Our study aimed at understanding the role of evolutionary processes (e.g. local adaptation and clinal differentiation) and different life history stages in shaping the distribution pattern of the invasive plant along an elevational gradient in the Western Himalaya. We carried out extensive distributional surveys, established a reciprocal transplant experiment with common gardens at three elevational levels, and measured a suite of traits related to germination, growth, reproduction and phenology. Our results showed a lack of local adaptation, and we did not find any evidence for clinal differentiation in any measured trait except a rather weak signal for plant height. We found that seed germination was the crucial life-cycle transition in determining the lower range limit while winter mortality of plants shaped the upper range limit in our study area, thus explaining the hump shaped distribution pattern. Differences in trait values between gardens for most traits indicated a high degree of phenotypic plasticity. Possible causes such as apomixis, seed dispersal among sites, and pre-adaptation might have confounded evolutionary processes to act upon. Our results suggest that the success and spread of Ageratina adenophora are dependent on different life history stages at different elevations that are controlled by abiotic conditions.

A Spatial Analysis of the Potato Cyst Nematode Globodera pallida in Idaho.

PubMed

Dandurand, Louise-Marie; Contina, Jean Bertrand; Knudsen, Guy R

2018-03-13

The potato cyst nematode (PCN), Globodera pallida, is a globally regulated and quarantine potato pest. It was detected for the first time in the U.S. in the state of Idaho in 2006. A spatial analysis was performed to: (i) understand the spatial arrangement of PCN infested fields in southern Idaho using spatial point pattern analysis; and (ii) evaluate the potential threat of PCN for entry to new areas using spatial interpolation techniques. Data point locations, cyst numbers and egg viability values for each infested field were collected by USDA-APHIS during 2006-2014. Results showed the presence of spatially clustered PCN infested fields (P = 0.003). We determined that the spread of PCN grew in diameter from the original center of infestation toward the southwest as an ellipsoidal-shaped cluster. Based on the aggregated spatial pattern of distribution and the low extent level of PCN infested fields in southern Idaho, we determined that PCN spread followed a contagion effect scenario, where nearby infested fields contributed to the infestation of new fields, probably through soil contaminated agricultural equipment or tubers. We determined that the recent PCN presence in southern Idaho is unlikely to be associated with new PCN entry from outside the state of Idaho. The relative aggregation of PCN infested fields, the low number of cysts recovered, and the low values in egg viability facilitate quarantine activities and confine this pest to a small area, which, in 2017, is estimated to be 1,233 hectares. The tools and methods provided in this study should facilitate comprehensive approaches to improve PCN control and eradication programs as well as to raise public awareness about this economically important potato pest.

Birds, migration and emerging zoonoses: west nile virus, lyme disease, influenza A and enteropathogens.

PubMed

Reed, Kurt D; Meece, Jennifer K; Henkel, James S; Shukla, Sanjay K

2003-01-01

Wild birds are important to public health because they carry emerging zoonotic pathogens, either as a reservoir host or by dispersing infected arthropod vectors. In addition, bird migration provides a mechanism for the establishment of new endemic foci of disease at great distances from where an infection was acquired. Birds are central to the epidemiology of West Nile virus (WNV) because they are the main amplifying host of the virus in nature. The initial spread of WNV in the U.S. along the eastern seaboard coincided with a major bird migration corridor. The subsequent rapid movement of the virus inland could have been facilitated by the elliptical migration routes used by many songbirds. A number of bird species can be infected with Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiologic agent of Lyme disease, but most are not competent to transmit the infection to Ixodes ticks. The major role birds play in the geographic expansion of Lyme disease is as dispersers of B. burgdorferi-infected ticks. Aquatic waterfowl are asymptomatic carriers of essentially all hemagglutinin and neuraminidase combinations of influenza A virus. Avian influenza strains do not usually replicate well in humans, but they can undergo genetic reassortment with human strains that co-infect pigs. This can result in new strains with a marked increase in virulence for humans. Wild birds can acquire enteropathogens, such as Salmonella and Campylobacter spp., by feeding on raw sewage and garbage, and can spread these agents to humans directly or by contaminating commercial poultry operations. Conversely, wild birds can acquire drug-resistant enteropathogens from farms and spread these strains along migration routes. Birds contribute to the global spread of emerging infectious diseases in a manner analogous to humans traveling on aircraft. A better understanding of avian migration patterns and infectious diseases of birds would be useful in helping to predict future outbreaks of infections due to emerging zoonotic pathogens.

Influence of the impact energy on the pattern of blood drip stains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, F. R.; Nicloux, C.; Brutin, D.

2018-01-01

The maximum spreading diameter of complex fluid droplets has been extensively studied and explained by numerous physical models. This research focuses therefore on a different aspect, the bulging outer rim observed after evaporation on the final dried pattern of blood droplets. A correlation is found between the inner diameter, the maximum outer diameter, and the impact speed. This shows how the drying mechanism of a blood drip stain is influenced by the impact energy, which induces a larger spreading diameter and thus a different redistribution of red blood cells inside the droplet. An empirical relation is established between the final dried pattern of a passive bloodstain and its impact speed, yielding a possible forensic application. Indeed, being able to relate accurately the energy of the drop with its final pattern would give a clue to investigators, as currently no such simple and accurate tool exists.

Inter- and intracontinental migrations and local differentiation have shaped the contemporary epidemiological landscape of canine parvovirus in South America

PubMed Central

Grecco, Sofía; Iraola, Gregorio; Decaro, Nicola; Alfieri, Alice; Alfieri, Amauri; Gallo Calderón, Marina; da Silva, Ana Paula; Name, Daniela; Aldaz, Jaime; Calleros, Lucía; Marandino, Ana; Tomás, Gonzalo; Maya, Leticia; Francia, Lourdes; Panzera, Yanina; Pérez, Ruben

2018-01-01

Abstract Canine parvovirus (CPV) is a fast-evolving single-stranded DNA virus that causes one of the most significant infectious diseases of dogs. Although the virus dispersed over long distances in the past, current populations are considered to be spatially confined and with only a few instances of migration between specific localities. It is unclear whether these dynamics occur in South America where global studies have not been performed. The aim of this study is to analyze the patterns of genetic variability in South American CPV populations and explore their evolutionary relationships with global strains. Genomic sequences of sixty-three strains from South America and Europe were generated and analyzed using a phylodynamic approach. All the obtained strains belong to the CPV-2a lineage and associate with global strains in four monophyletic groups or clades. European and South American strains from all the countries here analyzed are representative of a widely distributed clade (Eur-I) that emerged in Southern Europe during 1990–98 to later spread to South America in the early 2000s. The emergence and spread of the Eur-I clade were correlated with a significant rise in the CPV effective population size in Europe and South America. The Asia-I clade includes strains from Asia and Uruguay. This clade originated in Asia during the late 1980s and evolved locally before spreading to South America during 2009–10. The third clade (Eur-II) comprises strains from Italy, Brazil, and Ecuador. This clade appears in South America as a consequence of an early introduction from Italy to Ecuador in the middle 1980s and has experienced extensive local genetic differentiation. Some strains from Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil constitute an exclusive South American clade (SA-I) that emerged in Argentina in the 1990s. These results indicate that the current epidemiological scenario is a consequence of inter- and intracontinental migrations of strains with different geographic and temporal origins that set the conditions for competition and local differentiation of CPV populations. The coexistence and interaction of highly divergent strains are the main responsible for the drastic epidemiological changes observed in South America in the last two decades. This highlights the threat of invasion from external sources and the importance of whole-genome resolution to robustly infer the origin and spread of new CPV variants. From a taxonomic standpoint, the findings herein show that the classification system that uses a single amino acid to identify variants (2a, 2b, and 2c) within the CPV-2a lineage does not reflect phylogenetic relationships and is not suitable to analyze CPV evolution. In this regard, the identification of clades or sublineages within circulating CPV strains is the first step towards a genetic and evolutionary classification of the virus. PMID:29657837

Inter- and intracontinental migrations and local differentiation have shaped the contemporary epidemiological landscape of canine parvovirus in South America.

PubMed

Grecco, Sofía; Iraola, Gregorio; Decaro, Nicola; Alfieri, Alice; Alfieri, Amauri; Gallo Calderón, Marina; da Silva, Ana Paula; Name, Daniela; Aldaz, Jaime; Calleros, Lucía; Marandino, Ana; Tomás, Gonzalo; Maya, Leticia; Francia, Lourdes; Panzera, Yanina; Pérez, Ruben

2018-01-01

Canine parvovirus (CPV) is a fast-evolving single-stranded DNA virus that causes one of the most significant infectious diseases of dogs. Although the virus dispersed over long distances in the past, current populations are considered to be spatially confined and with only a few instances of migration between specific localities. It is unclear whether these dynamics occur in South America where global studies have not been performed. The aim of this study is to analyze the patterns of genetic variability in South American CPV populations and explore their evolutionary relationships with global strains. Genomic sequences of sixty-three strains from South America and Europe were generated and analyzed using a phylodynamic approach. All the obtained strains belong to the CPV-2a lineage and associate with global strains in four monophyletic groups or clades. European and South American strains from all the countries here analyzed are representative of a widely distributed clade (Eur-I) that emerged in Southern Europe during 1990-98 to later spread to South America in the early 2000s. The emergence and spread of the Eur-I clade were correlated with a significant rise in the CPV effective population size in Europe and South America. The Asia-I clade includes strains from Asia and Uruguay. This clade originated in Asia during the late 1980s and evolved locally before spreading to South America during 2009-10. The third clade (Eur-II) comprises strains from Italy, Brazil, and Ecuador. This clade appears in South America as a consequence of an early introduction from Italy to Ecuador in the middle 1980s and has experienced extensive local genetic differentiation. Some strains from Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil constitute an exclusive South American clade (SA-I) that emerged in Argentina in the 1990s. These results indicate that the current epidemiological scenario is a consequence of inter- and intracontinental migrations of strains with different geographic and temporal origins that set the conditions for competition and local differentiation of CPV populations. The coexistence and interaction of highly divergent strains are the main responsible for the drastic epidemiological changes observed in South America in the last two decades. This highlights the threat of invasion from external sources and the importance of whole-genome resolution to robustly infer the origin and spread of new CPV variants. From a taxonomic standpoint, the findings herein show that the classification system that uses a single amino acid to identify variants (2a, 2b, and 2c) within the CPV-2a lineage does not reflect phylogenetic relationships and is not suitable to analyze CPV evolution. In this regard, the identification of clades or sublineages within circulating CPV strains is the first step towards a genetic and evolutionary classification of the virus.

Delay-induced rebounds in CO2 emissions and critical time-scales to meet global warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manoli, Gabriele; Katul, Gabriel G.; Marani, Marco

2016-12-01

While climate science debates are focused on the attainment of peak anthropogenic CO2 emissions and policy tools to reduce peak temperatures, the human-energy-climate system can hold "rebound" surprises beyond this peak. Following the second industrial revolution, global per capita CO2 emissions (cc) experienced a punctuated growth of about 100% every 60 years, mainly attributable to technological development and its global spread. A model of the human-energy-climate system capable of reproducing past punctuated dynamics shows that rebounds in global CO2 emissions emerge due to delays intrinsic to the diffusion of innovations. Such intrinsic delays in the adoption and spread of low-carbon emitting technologies, together with projected population growth, upset the warming target set by the Paris Agreement. To avoid rebounds and their negative climate effects, model calculations show that the diffusion of climate-friendly technologies must occur with lags one-order of magnitude shorter (i.e., ˜6 years) than the characteristic timescale of past punctuated growth in cc. Radically new strategies to globally implement the technological advances at unprecedented rates are needed if the current emission goals are to be achieved.

The risk of disease to great apes: simulating disease spread in orang-utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) association networks.

PubMed

Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia

2014-01-01

All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure.

Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. Methods We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. Results The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. Conclusions We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial. PMID:21554680

The Risk of Disease to Great Apes: Simulating Disease Spread in Orang-Utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) Association Networks

PubMed Central

Carne, Charlotte; Semple, Stuart; Morrogh-Bernard, Helen; Zuberbühler, Klaus; Lehmann, Julia

2014-01-01

All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure. PMID:24740263

Coastal river plumes: Collisions and coalescence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, Jonathan; Farnsworth, Katherine L

2017-01-01

Plumes of buoyant river water spread in the ocean from river mouths, and these plumes influence water quality, sediment dispersal, primary productivity, and circulation along the world’s coasts. Most investigations of river plumes have focused on large rivers in a coastal region, for which the physical spreading of the plume is assumed to be independent from the influence of other buoyant plumes. Here we provide new understanding of the spreading patterns of multiple plumes interacting along simplified coastal settings by investigating: (i) the relative likelihood of plume-to-plume interactions at different settings using geophysical scaling, (ii) the diversity of plume frontal collision types and the effects of these collisions on spreading patterns of plume waters using a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and (iii) the fundamental differences in plume spreading patterns between coasts with single and multiple rivers using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Geophysical scaling suggests that coastal margins with numerous small rivers (watershed areas < 10,000 km2), such as found along most active geologic coastal margins, were much more likely to have river plumes that collide and interact than coastal settings with large rivers (watershed areas > 100,000 km2). When two plume fronts meet, several types of collision attributes were found, including refection, subduction and occlusion. We found that the relative differences in pre-collision plume densities and thicknesses strongly influenced the resulting collision types. The three-dimensional spreading of buoyant plumes was found to be influenced by the presence of additional rivers for all modeled scenarios, including those with and without Coriolis and wind. Combined, these results suggest that plume-to-plume interactions are common phenomena for coastal regions offshore of the world’s smaller rivers and for coastal settings with multiple river mouths in close proximity, and that the spreading and fate of river waters in these settings will be strongly influenced by these interactions. We conclude that new investigations are needed to characterize how plumes interact offshore of river mouths to better understand the transport and fate of terrestrial sources of pollution, nutrients and other materials in the ocean.

Modeling the role of back-arc spreading in controlling 3-D circulation and temperature patterns in subduction zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincaid, C.

2005-12-01

Subduction of oceanic lithosphere provides a dominant driving force for mantle dynamics and plate tectonics, and strongly modulates the thermal evolution of the mantle. Magma generation in arc environments is related to slab temperatures, slab dehydration/wedge hydration processes and circulation patterns in the mantle wedge. A series of laboratory experiments is used to model three-dimensional aspects of flow in subduction zones, and the consequent temperature variations in the slab and overlying mantle wedge. The experiments utilize a tank of glucose syrup to simulate the mantle and a Phenolic plate to represent subducting oceanic lithosphere. Different modes of plate sinking are produced using hydraulic pistons. The effects of longitudinal, rollback and slab-steepening components of slab motions are considered, along with different thicknesses of the over-riding lithosphere. Models look specifically at how distinct modes of back-arc spreading alter subduction zone temperatures and flow in the mantle wedge. Results show remarkably different temperature and circulation patterns when spreading is produced by rollback of the trench-slab-arc relative to a stationary overriding back-arc plate versus spreading due to motion of the overriding plate away from a fixed trench location. For rollback-induced spreading, flow trajectories in the wedge are shallow (e.g., limited upwelling), both the sub-arc and back-arc regions are supplied by material flowing around the receding slab. Flow lines in the sub-arc wedge are strongly trench-parallel. In these cases, strong lateral variations in slab surface temperature (SST) are recorded (hot at plate center, cool at plate edge). When the trench is fixed in space and spreading is produced by motion of the overriding plate, strong vertical flow velocities are recorded in the wedge, both the shallow sub-arc and back-arc regions are supplied by flow from under the overriding plate producing strong vertical shear. In these cases SSTs are nearly uniform across the plate. Results have implications for geochemical and seismic models of 3-D flow in subduction zones influenced by back-arc spreading, such as the Marianas.

Evidence of recent volcanic activity on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge.

PubMed

Edwards, M H; Kurras, G J; Tolstoy, M; Bohnenstiehl, D R; Coakley, B J; Cochran, J R

2001-02-15

Seafloor spreading is accommodated by volcanic and tectonic processes along the global mid-ocean ridge system. As spreading rate decreases the influence of volcanism also decreases, and it is unknown whether significant volcanism occurs at all at ultraslow spreading rates (<1.5 cm yr(-1)). Here we present three-dimensional sonar maps of the Gakkel ridge, Earth's slowest-spreading mid-ocean ridge, located in the Arctic basin under the Arctic Ocean ice canopy. We acquired this data using hull-mounted sonars attached to a nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Hawkbill. Sidescan data for the ultraslow-spreading (approximately 1.0 cm yr(-1)) eastern Gakkel ridge depict two young volcanoes covering approximately 720 km2 of an otherwise heavily sedimented axial valley. The western volcano coincides with the average location of epicentres for more than 250 teleseismic events detected in 1999, suggesting that an axial eruption was imaged shortly after its occurrence. These findings demonstrate that eruptions along the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge are focused at discrete locations and appear to be more voluminous and occur more frequently than was previously thought.

Information spreading by a combination of MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern classification

PubMed Central

Sato, Masashi; Yamashita, Okito; Sato, Masa-aki

2018-01-01

To understand information representation in human brain activity, it is important to investigate its fine spatial patterns at high temporal resolution. One possible approach is to use source estimation of magnetoencephalography (MEG) signals. Previous studies have mainly quantified accuracy of this technique according to positional deviations and dispersion of estimated sources, but it remains unclear how accurately MEG source estimation restores information content represented by spatial patterns of brain activity. In this study, using simulated MEG signals representing artificial experimental conditions, we performed MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern analysis to examine whether MEG source estimation can restore information content represented by patterns of cortical current in source brain areas. Classification analysis revealed that the corresponding artificial experimental conditions were predicted accurately from patterns of cortical current estimated in the source brain areas. However, accurate predictions were also possible from brain areas whose original sources were not defined. Searchlight decoding further revealed that this unexpected prediction was possible across wide brain areas beyond the original source locations, indicating that information contained in the original sources can spread through MEG source estimation. This phenomenon of “information spreading” may easily lead to false-positive interpretations when MEG source estimation and classification analysis are combined to identify brain areas that represent target information. Real MEG data analyses also showed that presented stimuli were able to be predicted in the higher visual cortex at the same latency as in the primary visual cortex, also suggesting that information spreading took place. These results indicate that careful inspection is necessary to avoid false-positive interpretations when MEG source estimation and multivariate pattern analysis are combined. PMID:29912968

Clustering determines the dynamics of complex contagions in multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Yong; Arenas, Alex; Yaǧan, Osman

2017-01-01

We present the mathematical analysis of generalized complex contagions in a class of clustered multiplex networks. The model is intended to understand spread of influence, or any other spreading process implying a threshold dynamics, in setups of interconnected networks with significant clustering. The contagion is assumed to be general enough to account for a content-dependent linear threshold model, where each link type has a different weight (for spreading influence) that may depend on the content (e.g., product, rumor, political view) that is being spread. Using the generating functions formalism, we determine the conditions, probability, and expected size of the emergent global cascades. This analysis provides a generalization of previous approaches and is especially useful in problems related to spreading and percolation. The results present nontrivial dependencies between the clustering coefficient of the networks and its average degree. In particular, several phase transitions are shown to occur depending on these descriptors. Generally speaking, our findings reveal that increasing clustering decreases the probability of having global cascades and their size, however, this tendency changes with the average degree. There exists a certain average degree from which on clustering favors the probability and size of the contagion. By comparing the dynamics of complex contagions over multiplex networks and their monoplex projections, we demonstrate that ignoring link types and aggregating network layers may lead to inaccurate conclusions about contagion dynamics, particularly when the correlation of degrees between layers is high.

Design-Based Online Teacher Professional Development to Introduce Integration of STEM in Pakistan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anwar, Tasneem

2017-01-01

In today's global society where innovations spread rapidly, the escalating focus on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) has quickly intensified in the United States, East Asia and much of Western Europe. Our ever-changing, increasingly global society faces many multidisciplinary problems, and many of the solutions require the…

Global gypsy--the moth that gets around

Treesearch

W.E. Wallner

1998-01-01

It is difficult to document the total economic impacts of exotic insect pests on eastern U.S. forests. Annual losses to a single introduced pest, the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L., have exceeded $30 million from 1980 to 1996. The complicated behavior and actions of humans in accelerating the spread of this "global gypsy" are discussed....

Theorizing and Documenting the Spread of Teach for All and Its Impact on Global Education Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Straubhaar, Rolf; Friedrich, Daniel

2015-01-01

Within global education policy, the role of multilateral agencies in pushing crossnational policy borrowing is increasingly being complemented by efforts from private international networks within civil society, such as Teach For All. This introductory article summarizes the scarce extant literature on Teach For All, highlighting the contributions…

The Influence of Globalization on Turkish Sports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sahin, Mehmet

2018-01-01

This paper addresses the phenomenon of globalization, which has also spread to sports, in terms of its economic, social and cultural aspects; while discussing the concept based on examples from the discipline of football in the premier league of Turkey. In this framework, sports labor emigration mobility is handled, and sponsorship and the effects…

Trading Quality across Borders: Colonial Discourse and International Quality Assurance Policies in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blanco Ramírez, Gerardo

2014-01-01

Accountability and quality assurance have become central discourses in higher education policy throughout the world. However, accountability and quality assurance involve power and control. Practices and ideas about quality developed in the Global North are spreading rapidly across the Global South, leading to increased uniformity in the…

77 FR 42052 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Instituting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-17

... proposed MQP would be a program designed to promote market quality in certain securities listed on NASDAQ... contain the specific quantitative listing requirements for listing on the Global Select, Global Market... pilot (for comparative purposes), volume metrics, NBBO bid/ask spread differentials, LMM participation...

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans and the risk of a second amphibian pandemic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yap, Tiffany A.; Nguyen, Natalie T.; Serr, Megan; Shepak, Alex; Vredenburg, Vance

2017-01-01

Amphibians are experiencing devastating population declines globally. A major driver is chytridiomycosis, an emerging infectious disease caused by the fungal pathogens Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Bdwas described in 1999 and has been linked with declines since the 1970s, while Bsal is a more recently discovered pathogen that was described in 2013. It is hypothesized that Bsaloriginated in Asia and spread via international trade to Europe, where it has been linked to salamander die-offs. Trade in live amphibians thus represents a significant threat to global biodiversity in amphibians. We review the current state of knowledge regarding Bsal and describe the risk of Bsal spread. We discuss regional responses to Bsal and barriers that impede a rapid, coordinated global effort. The discovery of a second deadly emerging chytrid fungal pathogen in amphibians poses an opportunity for scientists, conservationists, and governments to improve global biosecurity and further protect humans and wildlife from a growing number of emerging infectious diseases.

A global reference model of Curie-point depths based on EMAG2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chun-Feng; Lu, Yu; Wang, Jian

2017-03-01

In this paper, we use a robust inversion algorithm, which we have tested in many regional studies, to obtain the first global model of Curie-point depth (GCDM) from magnetic anomaly inversion based on fractal magnetization. Statistically, the oceanic Curie depth mean is smaller than the continental one, but continental Curie depths are almost bimodal, showing shallow Curie points in some old cratons. Oceanic Curie depths show modifications by hydrothermal circulations in young oceanic lithosphere and thermal perturbations in old oceanic lithosphere. Oceanic Curie depths also show strong dependence on the spreading rate along active spreading centers. Curie depths and heat flow are correlated, following optimal theoretical curves of average thermal conductivities K = ~2.0 W(m°C)-1 for the ocean and K = ~2.5 W(m°C)-1 for the continent. The calculated heat flow from Curie depths and large-interval gridding of measured heat flow all indicate that the global heat flow average is about 70.0 mW/m2, leading to a global heat loss ranging from ~34.6 to 36.6 TW.

A global reference model of Curie-point depths based on EMAG2.

PubMed

Li, Chun-Feng; Lu, Yu; Wang, Jian

2017-03-21

In this paper, we use a robust inversion algorithm, which we have tested in many regional studies, to obtain the first global model of Curie-point depth (GCDM) from magnetic anomaly inversion based on fractal magnetization. Statistically, the oceanic Curie depth mean is smaller than the continental one, but continental Curie depths are almost bimodal, showing shallow Curie points in some old cratons. Oceanic Curie depths show modifications by hydrothermal circulations in young oceanic lithosphere and thermal perturbations in old oceanic lithosphere. Oceanic Curie depths also show strong dependence on the spreading rate along active spreading centers. Curie depths and heat flow are correlated, following optimal theoretical curves of average thermal conductivities K = ~2.0 W(m°C) -1 for the ocean and K = ~2.5 W(m°C) -1 for the continent. The calculated heat flow from Curie depths and large-interval gridding of measured heat flow all indicate that the global heat flow average is about 70.0 mW/m 2 , leading to a global heat loss ranging from ~34.6 to 36.6 TW.

The memory of the accreting plate boundary and the continuity of fracture zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schouten, Hans; Klitgord, Kim D.

1982-01-01

A detailed aeromagnetic anomaly map of the Mesozoic seafloor-spreading lineations southwest of Bermuda reveals the dominant magnetic grain of the oceanic crust and the character of the accreting boundary at the time of crustal formation. The magnetic anomaly pattern is that of a series of elongate lobes perpendicular to the fracture zone (flowline) trends. The linear sets of magnetic anomaly peaks and troughs have narrow regions of reduced amplitude anomalies associated with the fracture zones. During the period of Mesozoic geomagnetic polarity reversals (when 1200 km of central North Atlantic seafloor formed), the Atlantic accreting boundary consisted of stationary, elongate, spreading center cells that maintained their independence even though sometimes only minor spatial offsets existed between cells. Normal oceanic crustal structure was formed in the spreading center cells, but structural anomalies and discontinuities characteristic of fracture zones were formed at their boundaries, which parallel flowlines of Mesozoic relative plate motion in the central North Atlantic. We suggest that the memory for a stationary pattern of independent spreading center cells resides in the young brittle lithosphere at the accreting boundary where the lithosphere is weakest; here, each spreading center cell independently goes through its cylce of stress buildup, stress release, and crustal accretion, after which its memory is refreshed. The temporal offset between the peaks of the accretionary activity that takes place within each cell may provide the mechanism for maintaining the independence of adjacent spreading center cells through times when no spatial offset between the cells exists.

Rapid Spread of Zika Virus in The Americas--Implications for Public Health Preparedness for Mass Gatherings at the 2016 Brazil Olympic Games.

PubMed

Petersen, Eskild; Wilson, Mary E; Touch, Sok; McCloskey, Brian; Mwaba, Peter; Bates, Matthew; Dar, Osman; Mattes, Frank; Kidd, Mike; Ippolito, Giuseppe; Azhar, Esam I; Zumla, Alimuddin

2016-03-01

Mass gatherings at major international sporting events put millions of international travelers and local host-country residents at risk of acquiring infectious diseases, including locally endemic infectious diseases. The mosquito-borne Zika virus (ZIKV) has recently aroused global attention due to its rapid spread since its first detection in May 2015 in Brazil to 22 other countries and other territories in the Americas. The ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, has also been associated with a significant rise in the number of babies born with microcephaly and neurological disorders, and has been declared a 'Global Emergency by the World Health Organization. This explosive spread of ZIKV in Brazil poses challenges for public health preparedness and surveillance for the Olympics and Paralympics which are due to be held in Rio De Janeiro in August, 2016. We review the epidemiology and clinical features of the current ZIKV outbreak in Brazil, highlight knowledge gaps, and review the public health implications of the current ZIKV outbreak in the Americas. We highlight the urgent need for a coordinated collaborative response for prevention and spread of infectious diseases with epidemic potential at mass gatherings events. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Models of Plumes: Their Flow, Their Geometric Spreading, and Their Mixing with Interplume Flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suess, Steven T.

1998-01-01

There are two types of plume flow models: (1) 1D models using ad hoc spreading functions, f(r); (2) MagnetoHydroDynamics (MHD) models. 1D models can be multifluid, time dependent, and incorporate very general descriptions of the energetics. They confirm empirical results that plume flow is slow relative to requirements for high speed wind. But, no published 1 D model incorporates the rapid local spreading at the base (fl(r)) which has an important effect on mass flux. The one published MHD model is isothermal, but confirms that if b=8*pi*p/absolute value(B)2<

SICR rumor spreading model in complex networks: Counterattack and self-resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zan, Yongli; Wu, Jianliang; Li, Ping; Yu, Qinglin

2014-07-01

Rumor is an important form of social interaction. However, spreading of harmful rumors could have a significant negative impact on the well-being of the society. In this paper, considering the counterattack mechanism of the rumor spreading, we introduce two new models: Susceptible-Infective-Counterattack-Refractory (SICR) model and adjusted-SICR model. We then derive mean-field equations to describe their dynamics in homogeneous networks and conduct the steady-state analysis. We also introduce the self-resistance parameter τ, and study the influence of this parameter on rumor spreading. Numerical simulations are performed to compare the SICR model with the SIR model and the adjusted-SICR model, respectively, and we investigate the spreading peak of the rumor and the final size of the rumor with various parameters. Simulation results are congruent exactly with the theoretical analysis. The experiment reveals some interesting patterns of rumor spreading involved with counterattack force.

Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

2015-12-01

The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

On the global distribution of hydrothermal vent fields: One decade later

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaulieu, S. E.; Baker, E. T.; German, C. R.

2012-12-01

Since the last global compilation one decade ago, the known number of active submarine hydrothermal vent fields has almost doubled. At the end of 2009, a total of 518 active vent fields was catalogued, with about half (245) visually confirmed and others (273) inferred active at the seafloor. About half (52%) of these vent fields are at mid-ocean ridges (MORs), 25% at volcanic arcs, 21% at back-arc spreading centers (BASCs), and 2% at intra-plate volcanoes and other settings. One third are in high seas, and the nations with the most known active vent fields within EEZs are Tonga, USA, Japan, and New Zealand. The increase in known vent fields reflects a number of factors, including increased national and commercial interests in seafloor hydrothermal deposits as mineral resources. Here, we have comprehensively documented the percentage of strike length at MORs and BASCs that has been systematically explored for hydrothermal activity. As of the end of 2009, almost 30% of the ~60,000 km of MORs had been surveyed at least with spaced vertical profiles to detect hydrothermal plumes. A majority of the vents discovered at MORs in the past decade occurred at segments with < 60 mm/yr full spreading rate. Discoveries at ultra-slow MORs in the past decade included the deepest known vent (Beebe at Mid-Cayman Rise) and high-temperature black smoker vents (e.g., Dragon at SWIR and Loki's Castle at Mohns Ridge), and the highest temperature vent was measured at the slow-spreading S MAR (Turtle Pits). Using a previously published equation for the linear relationship between the number of active vent fields per 100 km strike length (F_s) vs. weighted-average full spreading rate (u_s), we predicted 676 vent fields remaining to be discovered at MORs. Even accounting for the lower F_s at slower spreading rates, almost half of the vents that are predicted remaining to be discovered at MORs are at ultra-slow to slow spreading rates (< 40 mm/yr) and about 1/3 at intermediate rates (40-80 mm/yr). MOR regions that are little explored tend to be at high latitudes, such as the ultra-slow to slow spreading Arctic MORs (e.g., Kolbeinsey and Mohns Ridges), the ultra-slow American-Antarctic Ridge, and the intermediate spreading Pacific-Antarctic Ridge. Although a greater percentage of the ~11,000 km of BASCs has been surveyed for hydrothermal activity, the discoveries at BASCs in the past decade were mainly at segments with intermediate to fast spreading rates. Using the same equation for F_s vs. u_s, we predicted 71 vent fields remaining to be discovered at BASCs, and most are likely to be found at ultra-slow and slow spreading segments (e.g., Andaman Basin, and central to northern Mariana Trough). With 2/3 of our overall predicted total vent fields at spreading ridges remaining to be discovered, we expect that the next decade of exploration will continue to yield new discoveries, leading to new insights into biogeography of vent fauna and the global impacts of fluxes of heat and materials from vents into our oceans.

Variation in Host and Pathogen in the Neonectria/Malus Interaction; toward an Understanding of the Genetic Basis of Resistance to European Canker

PubMed Central

Gómez-Cortecero, Antonio; Saville, Robert J.; Scheper, Reiny W. A.; Bowen, Joanna K.; Agripino De Medeiros, Hugo; Kingsnorth, Jennifer; Xu, Xiangming; Harrison, Richard J.

2016-01-01

Apple canker caused by the phytopathogenic fungus Neonectria ditissima is an economically important disease, which has spread in recent years to almost all pome-producing regions of the world. N. ditissima is able to cross-infect a wide range of apple varieties and causes branch and trunk lesions, known as cankers. Most modern apple varieties are susceptible and in extreme cases suffer from high mortality (up to 50%) in the early phase of orchard establishment. There is no known race structure of the pathogen and the global level of genetic diversity of the pathogen population is unknown. Resistance breeding is underway in many global breeding programmes, but nevertheless, a total resistance to canker has not yet been demonstrated. Here we present preliminary data from a survey of the phylogenetic relationships between global isolates of N. ditissima which reveals only slight evidence for population structure. In addition we report the results of four rapid screening tests to assess the response to N. ditissima in different apple scion and rootstock varieties, which reveals abundant variation in resistance responses in both cultivar and rootstock material. Further seedling tests show that the segregation patterns of resistance and susceptibility vary widely between crosses. We discuss inconsistencies in test performance with field observations and discuss future research opportunities in this area. PMID:27695463

Structure and phylogeography of two tropical predators, spinner (Stenella longirostris) and pantropical spotted (S. attenuata) dolphins, from SNP data

PubMed Central

Morin, Phillip A.

2018-01-01

Little is known about global patterns of genetic connectivity in pelagic dolphins, including how circumtropical pelagic dolphins spread globally following the rapid and recent radiation of the subfamily delphininae. In this study, we tested phylogeographic hypotheses for two circumtropical species, the spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) and the pantropical spotted dolphin (Stenella attenuata), using more than 3000 nuclear DNA single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in each species. Analyses for population structure indicated significant genetic differentiation between almost all subspecies and populations in both species. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses of spinner dolphins showed deep divergence between Indo-Pacific, Atlantic and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) lineages. Despite high morphological variation, our results show very close relationships between endemic ETP spinner subspecies in relation to global diversity. The dwarf spinner dolphin is a monophyletic subspecies nested within a major clade of pantropical spinner dolphins from the Indian and western Pacific Ocean populations. Population-level division among the dwarf spinner dolphins was detected—with the northern Australia population being very different from that in Indonesia. In contrast to spinner dolphins, the major boundary for spotted dolphins is between offshore and coastal habitats in the ETP, supporting the current subspecies-level taxonomy. Comparing these species underscores the different scale at which population structure can arise, even in species that are similar in habitat (i.e. pelagic) and distribution. PMID:29765639

Scattering and the Point Spread Function of the New Generation Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schreur, Julian J.

1996-01-01

Preliminary design work on the New Generation Space Telescope (NGST) is currently under way. This telescope is envisioned as a lightweight, deployable Cassegrain reflector with an aperture of 8 meters, and an effective focal length of 80 meters. It is to be folded into a small-diameter package for launch by an Atlas booster, and unfolded in orbit. The primary is to consist of an octagon with a hole at the center, and with eight segments arranged in a flower petal configuration about the octagon. The comers of the petal-shaped segments are to be trimmed so that the package will fit atop the Atlas booster. This mirror, along with its secondary will focus the light from a point source into an image which is spread from a point by diffraction effects, figure errors, and scattering of light from the surface. The distribution of light in the image of a point source is called a point spread function (PSF). The obstruction of the incident light by the secondary mirror and its support structure, the trimmed corners of the petals, and the grooves between the segments all cause the diffraction pattern characterizing an ideal point spread function to be changed, with the trimmed comers causing the rings of the Airy pattern to become broken up, and the linear grooves causing diffraction spikes running radially away from the central spot, or Airy disk. Any figure errors the mirror segments may have, or any errors in aligning the petals with the central octagon will also spread the light out from the ideal point spread function. A point spread function for a mirror the size of the NGST and having an incident wavelength of 900 nm is considered. Most of the light is confined in a circle with a diameter of 0.05 arc seconds. The ring pattern ranges in intensity from 10(exp -2) near the center to 10(exp -6) near the edge of the plotted field, and can be clearly discerned in a log plot of the intensity. The total fraction of the light scattered from this point spread function is called the total integrated scattering (TIS), and the fraction remaining is called the Strehl ratio. The angular distribution of the scattered light is called the angle resolved scattering (ARS), and it shows a strong spike centered on a scattering angle of zero, and a broad , less intense distribution at larger angles. It is this scattered light, and its effect on the point spread function which is the focus of this study.

Tinea pedis: the etiology and global epidemiology of a common fungal infection.

PubMed

Ilkit, Macit; Durdu, Murat

2015-01-01

Tinea pedis, which is a dermatophytic infection of the feet, can involve the interdigital web spaces or the sides of the feet and may be a chronic or recurring condition. The most common etiological agents are anthropophiles, including Trichophyton rubrum sensu stricto, which is the most common, followed by Trichophyton interdigitale and Epidermophyton floccosum. There has been a change in this research arena, necessitating a re-evaluation of our knowledge on the topic from a multidisciplinary perspective. Thus, this review aimed to provide a solid overview of the current status and changing patterns of tinea pedis. The second half of the twentieth century witnessed a global increase in tinea pedis and a clonal spread of one major etiologic agent, T. rubrum. This phenomenon is likely due to increases in urbanization and the use of sports and fitness facilities, the growing prevalence of obesity and the aging population. For optimal patient care and management, the diagnosis of tinea pedis should be verified by microbiological analysis. In this review, we discuss the epidemiology, clinical forms, complications and mycological characteristics of tinea pedis and we highlight the pathogenesis, prevention and control parameters of this infection.

Comparative Genome Analysis and Global Phylogeny of the Toxin Variant Clostridium difficile PCR Ribotype 017 Reveals the Evolution of Two Independent Sublineages

PubMed Central

Cairns, M. D.; Preston, M. D.; Hall, C. L.; Gerding, D. N.; Hawkey, P. M.; Kato, H.; Kim, H.; Kuijper, E. J.; Lawley, T. D.; Pituch, H.; Reid, S.; Kullin, B.; Riley, T. V.; Solomon, K.; Tsai, P. J.; Weese, J. S.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT The diarrheal pathogen Clostridium difficile consists of at least six distinct evolutionary lineages. The RT017 lineage is anomalous, as strains only express toxin B, compared to strains from other lineages that produce toxins A and B and, occasionally, binary toxin. Historically, RT017 initially was reported in Asia but now has been reported worldwide. We used whole-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis to investigate the patterns of global spread and population structure of 277 RT017 isolates from animal and human origins from six continents, isolated between 1990 and 2013. We reveal two distinct evenly split sublineages (SL1 and SL2) of C. difficile RT017 that contain multiple independent clonal expansions. All 24 animal isolates were contained within SL1 along with human isolates, suggesting potential transmission between animals and humans. Genetic analyses revealed an overrepresentation of antibiotic resistance genes. Phylogeographic analyses show a North American origin for RT017, as has been found for the recently emerged epidemic RT027 lineage. Despite having only one toxin, RT017 strains have evolved in parallel from at least two independent sources and can readily transmit between continents. PMID:28031436

Global threat to agriculture from invasive species.

PubMed

Paini, Dean R; Sheppard, Andy W; Cook, David C; De Barro, Paul J; Worner, Susan P; Thomas, Matthew B

2016-07-05

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread.

Elaboration of a global strategy for containing microbial drug resistance.

PubMed

Zabicki, W

2001-01-01

The World Health Organization is engaged in developing the Global Strategy for Containment of Antimicrobial Resistance. The preliminary document WHO/CDC/CSR/DRS/2000.I Draft has already been distributed, and remarks have been solicited.
The World Health Assembly Resolution of 1998 urged Member States to encourage the appropriate and cost-effective use of antimicrobials. Member States were requested to implement effective systems of microbial resistance surveillance and to monitor volumes and patterns of antimicrobial drug use.
The phenomenon of antimicrobial resistance is rising rapidly and causing growing international concern. Many countries have undertaken their own national plans to address the problem.
The overall aim of the strategy being developed is to find the most effective forms and to prevent the spread of antimicrobial resistance and resistant microbes. The strategy covers the following topics: patients and general community, prescribers, hospitals, veterinarians, manufacturers and drug dispensers, and international aspects.
The strategy is being developed on the basis of expert opinions, published reports, reviews of specific topics specially commissioned by various international and national bodies, and a large body of literature with a list of publications containing over 100 items.

New advances in targeted gastric cancer treatment

PubMed Central

Lazăr, Daniela Cornelia; Tăban, Sorina; Cornianu, Marioara; Faur, Alexandra; Goldiş, Adrian

2016-01-01

Despite a decrease in incidence over past decades, gastric cancer remains a major global health problem. In the more recent period, survival has shown only minor improvement, despite significant advances in diagnostic techniques, surgical and chemotherapeutic approaches, the development of novel therapeutic agents and treatment by multidisciplinary teams. Because multiple genetic mutations, epigenetic alterations, and aberrant molecular signalling pathways are involved in the development of gastric cancers, recent research has attempted to determine the molecular heterogeneity responsible for the processes of carcinogenesis, spread and metastasis. Currently, some novel agents targeting a part of these dysfunctional molecular signalling pathways have already been integrated into the standard treatment of gastric cancer, whereas others remain in phases of investigation within clinical trials. It is essential to identify the unique molecular patterns of tumours and specific biomarkers to develop treatments targeted to the individual tumour behaviour. This review analyses the global impact of gastric cancer, as well as the role of Helicobacter pylori infection and the efficacy of bacterial eradication in preventing gastric cancer development. Furthermore, the paper discusses the currently available targeted treatments and future directions of research using promising novel classes of molecular agents for advanced tumours. PMID:27570417

Global threat to agriculture from invasive species

PubMed Central

Paini, Dean R.; Sheppard, Andy W.; Cook, David C.; De Barro, Paul J.; Worner, Susan P.; Thomas, Matthew B.

2016-01-01

Invasive species present significant threats to global agriculture, although how the magnitude and distribution of the threats vary between countries and regions remains unclear. Here, we present an analysis of almost 1,300 known invasive insect pests and pathogens, calculating the total potential cost of these species invading each of 124 countries of the world, as well as determining which countries present the greatest threat to the rest of the world given their trading partners and incumbent pool of invasive species. We find that countries vary in terms of potential threat from invasive species and also their role as potential sources, with apparently similar countries sometimes varying markedly depending on specifics of agricultural commodities and trade patterns. Overall, the biggest agricultural producers (China and the United States) could experience the greatest absolute cost from further species invasions. However, developing countries, in particular, Sub-Saharan African countries, appear most vulnerable in relative terms. Furthermore, China and the United States represent the greatest potential sources of invasive species for the rest of the world. The analysis reveals considerable scope for ongoing redistribution of known invasive pests and highlights the need for international cooperation to slow their spread. PMID:27325781

Regional climate models reduce biases of global models and project smaller European summer warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soerland, S.; Schar, C.; Lüthi, D.; Kjellstrom, E.

2017-12-01

The assessment of regional climate change and the associated planning of adaptation and response strategies are often based on complex model chains. Typically, these model chains employ global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), as well as one or several impact models. It is a common belief that the errors in such model chains behave approximately additive, thus the uncertainty should increase with each modeling step. If this hypothesis were true, the application of RCMs would not lead to any intrinsic improvement (beyond higher-resolution detail) of the GCM results. Here, we investigate the bias patterns (offset during the historical period against observations) and climate change signals of two RCMs that have downscaled a comprehensive set of GCMs following the EURO-CORDEX framework. The two RCMs reduce the biases of the driving GCMs, reduce the spread and modify the amplitude of the GCM projected climate change signal. The GCM projected summer warming at the end of the century is substantially reduced by both RCMs. These results are important, as the projected summer warming and its likely impact on the water cycle are among the most serious concerns regarding European climate change.

New advances in targeted gastric cancer treatment.

PubMed

Lazăr, Daniela Cornelia; Tăban, Sorina; Cornianu, Marioara; Faur, Alexandra; Goldiş, Adrian

2016-08-14

Despite a decrease in incidence over past decades, gastric cancer remains a major global health problem. In the more recent period, survival has shown only minor improvement, despite significant advances in diagnostic techniques, surgical and chemotherapeutic approaches, the development of novel therapeutic agents and treatment by multidisciplinary teams. Because multiple genetic mutations, epigenetic alterations, and aberrant molecular signalling pathways are involved in the development of gastric cancers, recent research has attempted to determine the molecular heterogeneity responsible for the processes of carcinogenesis, spread and metastasis. Currently, some novel agents targeting a part of these dysfunctional molecular signalling pathways have already been integrated into the standard treatment of gastric cancer, whereas others remain in phases of investigation within clinical trials. It is essential to identify the unique molecular patterns of tumours and specific biomarkers to develop treatments targeted to the individual tumour behaviour. This review analyses the global impact of gastric cancer, as well as the role of Helicobacter pylori infection and the efficacy of bacterial eradication in preventing gastric cancer development. Furthermore, the paper discusses the currently available targeted treatments and future directions of research using promising novel classes of molecular agents for advanced tumours.

Modeling epidemic spread with awareness and heterogeneous transmission rates in networks.

PubMed

Shang, Yilun

2013-06-01

During an epidemic outbreak in a human population, susceptibility to infection can be reduced by raising awareness of the disease. In this paper, we investigate the effects of three forms of awareness (i.e., contact, local, and global) on the spread of a disease in a random network. Connectivity-correlated transmission rates are assumed. By using the mean-field theory and numerical simulation, we show that both local and contact awareness can raise the epidemic thresholds while the global awareness cannot, which mirrors the recent results of Wu et al. The obtained results point out that individual behaviors in the presence of an infectious disease has a great influence on the epidemic dynamics. Our method enriches mean-field analysis in epidemic models.

Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

Treesearch

Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

2009-01-01

We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

Intercontinental spread of Asian-origin H5N8 to North America through Beringia by migratory birds

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Phylogenetic analysis and understanding of the waterfowl migration patterns suggests that Eurasian H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses moved to the Russian Far East/Beringia via migratory birds in spring 2014, evolved into 2 subgroups and subsequently spread along different flyways during fall 2014 into Euro...

An assessment of the relationship between emerald ash borer presence and landscape pattern

Treesearch

Susan J. Crocker; Dacia M. Meneguzzo

2009-01-01

Six years after its 2002 detection near Detroit, MI, the emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) has spread hundreds of miles across the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Human-assisted transportation of infested ash materials is the primary mechanism of EAB dispersal over long distances. Natural spread...

Anthropogenic disturbance and the risk of flea-borne disease transmission

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Paul Beier

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic disturbance may lead to the spread of vector-borne diseases through effects on pathogens, vectors, and hosts. Identifying the type and extent of vector response to habitat change will enable better and more accurate management strategies for anthropogenic disease spread. We compiled and analyzed data from published empirical studies to test for patterns...

Modeling the impact of global warming on vector-borne infections.

PubMed

Massad, Eduardo; Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra; Lopez, Luis Fernandez; da Silva, Daniel Rodrigues

2011-06-01

Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. The effect of global warming, however, depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. In this work we review some mathematical models that were proposed to study the impact of the increase in ambient temperature on the spread and gravity of some insect-transmitted diseases. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Noise focusing and the emergence of coherent activity in neuronal cultures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlandi, Javier G.; Soriano, Jordi; Alvarez-Lacalle, Enrique; Teller, Sara; Casademunt, Jaume

2013-09-01

At early stages of development, neuronal cultures in vitro spontaneously reach a coherent state of collective firing in a pattern of nearly periodic global bursts. Although understanding the spontaneous activity of neuronal networks is of chief importance in neuroscience, the origin and nature of that pulsation has remained elusive. By combining high-resolution calcium imaging with modelling in silico, we show that this behaviour is controlled by the propagation of waves that nucleate randomly in a set of points that is specific to each culture and is selected by a non-trivial interplay between dynamics and topology. The phenomenon is explained by the noise focusing effect--a strong spatio-temporal localization of the noise dynamics that originates in the complex structure of avalanches of spontaneous activity. Results are relevant to neuronal tissues and to complex networks with integrate-and-fire dynamics and metric correlations, for instance, in rumour spreading on social networks.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

Oceanic circulation models help to predict global biogeography of pelagic yellow-bellied sea snake

PubMed Central

Cotté, Cédric; Bailleul, Frédéric; Lalire, Maxime; Gaspar, Philippe

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that most marine vertebrates, and especially tetrapods, precisely orient and actively move in apparently homogeneous oceanic environments. Here, we investigate the presumptive role of oceanic currents in biogeographic patterns observed in a secondarily marine tetrapod, the yellow-bellied sea snake (Hydrophis [Pelamis] platurus). State-of-the-art world ocean circulation models show how H. platurus, the only pelagic species of sea snake, can potentially exploit oceanic currents to disperse and maintain population mixing between localities that spread over two-thirds of the Earth's circumference. The very close association of these snakes with surface currents seems to provide a highly efficient dispersal mechanism that allowed this species to range extensively and relatively quickly well beyond the central Indo-Pacific area, the centre of origin, abundance and diversity of sea snakes. Our results further suggest that the pan-oceanic population of this species must be extraordinarily large. PMID:27555651

Comparative Population Genomics Analysis of the Mammalian Fungal Pathogen Pneumocystis

PubMed Central

Ma, Liang; Wei Huang, Da; Khil, Pavel P.; Dekker, John P.; Kutty, Geetha; Bishop, Lisa; Liu, Yueqin; Deng, Xilong; Pagni, Marco; Hirsch, Vanessa; Lempicki, Richard A.

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Pneumocystis species are opportunistic mammalian pathogens that cause severe pneumonia in immunocompromised individuals. These fungi are highly host specific and uncultivable in vitro. Human Pneumocystis infections present major challenges because of a limited therapeutic arsenal and the rise of drug resistance. To investigate the diversity and demographic history of natural populations of Pneumocystis infecting humans, rats, and mice, we performed whole-genome and large-scale multilocus sequencing of infected tissues collected in various geographic locations. Here, we detected reduced levels of recombination and variations in historical demography, which shape the global population structures. We report estimates of evolutionary rates, levels of genetic diversity, and population sizes. Molecular clock estimates indicate that Pneumocystis species diverged before their hosts, while the asynchronous timing of population declines suggests host shifts. Our results have uncovered complex patterns of genetic variation influenced by multiple factors that shaped the adaptation of Pneumocystis populations during their spread across mammals. PMID:29739910

International foodborne outbreak of Shigella sonnei infection in airline passengers.

PubMed

Gaynor, K; Park, S Y; Kanenaka, R; Colindres, R; Mintz, E; Ram, P K; Kitsutani, P; Nakata, M; Wedel, S; Boxrud, D; Jennings, D; Yoshida, H; Tosaka, N; He, H; Ching-Lee, M; Effler, P V

2009-03-01

During 22-24 August 2004, an outbreak of Shigella sonnei infection affected air travellers who departed from Hawaii. Forty-seven passengers with culture-confirmed shigellosis and 116 probable cases who travelled on 12 flights dispersed to Japan, Australia, 22 US states, and American Samoa. All flights were served by one caterer. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis of all 29 S. sonnei isolates yielded patterns that matched within one band. Food histories and menu reviews identified raw carrot served onboard as the likely vehicle of infection. Attack rates for diarrhoea on three surveyed flights with confirmed cases were 54% (110/204), 32% (20/63), and 12% (8/67). A total of 2700 meals were served on flights with confirmed cases; using attack rates observed on surveyed flights, we estimated that 300-1500 passengers were infected. This outbreak illustrates the risk of rapid, global spread of illness from a point-source at a major airline hub.

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

PubMed Central

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-01

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990–2006) and former British India (1882–1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks. PMID:24424273

Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire.

PubMed

Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D; Bouma, Menno J; Pascual, Mercedes

2014-01-15

Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

A global reference model of Moho depths based on WGM2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, D.; Li, C.

2017-12-01

The crust-mantle boundary (Moho discontinuity) represents the largest density contrast in the lithosphere, which can be detected by Bouguer gravity anomaly. We present our recent inversion of global Moho depths from World Gravity Map 2012. Because oceanic lithospheres increase in density as they cool, we perform thermal correction based on the plate cooling model. We adopt a temperature Tm=1300°C at the bottom of lithosphere. The plate thickness is tested by varying by 5 km from 90 to 140 km, and taken as 130 km that gives a best-fit crustal thickness constrained by seismic crustal thickness profiles. We obtain the residual Bouguer gravity anomalies by subtracting the thermal correction from WGM2012, and then estimate Moho depths based on the Parker-Oldenburg algorithm. Taking the global model Crust1.0 as a priori constraint, we adopt Moho density contrasts of 0.43 and 0.4 g/cm3 , and initial mean Moho depths of 37 and 20 km in the continental and oceanic domains, respectively. The number of iterations in the inversion is set to be 150, which is large enough to obtain an error lower than a pre-assigned convergence criterion. The estimated Moho depths range between 0 76 km, and are averaged at 36 and 15 km in continental and oceanic domain, respectively. Our results correlate very well with Crust1.0 with differences mostly within ±5.0 km. Compared to the low resolution of Crust1.0 in oceanic domain, our results have a much larger depth range reflecting diverse structures such as ridges, seamounts, volcanic chains and subduction zones. Base on this model, we find that young(<5 Ma) oceanic crust thicknesses show dependence on spreading rates: (1) From ultraslow (<4mm/yr) to slow (4 45mm/yr) spreading ridges, the thicknesses increase dramatically; (2)From slow to fast (45 95mm/yr) spreading ridges , the thickness decreases slightly; (3) For the super-fast ridges (>95mm/yr) we observe relatively thicker crust. Conductive cooling of lithosphere may constrain the melting of the mantle at ultraslow spreading centers. Lower mantle temperatures indicated by deeper Curie depths at slow and fast spreading ridges may decrease the volume of magmatism and crustal thickness. This new global model of gravity-derived Moho depth, combined with geochemical and Curie point depth, can be used to investigate thermal evolution of lithosphere.

Unveiling hidden properties of young star clusters: differential reddening, star-formation spread, and binary fraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonatto, C.; Lima, E. F.; Bica, E.

2012-04-01

Context. Usually, important parameters of young, low-mass star clusters are very difficult to obtain by means of photometry, especially when differential reddening and/or binaries occur in large amounts. Aims: We present a semi-analytical approach (ASAmin) that, when applied to the Hess diagram of a young star cluster, is able to retrieve the values of mass, age, star-formation spread, distance modulus, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Methods: The global optimisation method known as adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) is used to minimise the residuals between the observed and simulated Hess diagrams of a star cluster. The simulations are realistic and take the most relevant parameters of young clusters into account. Important features of the simulations are a normal (Gaussian) differential reddening distribution, a time-decreasing star-formation rate, the unresolved binaries, and the smearing effect produced by photometric uncertainties on Hess diagrams. Free parameters are cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and binary fraction. Results: Tests with model clusters built with parameters spanning a broad range of values show that ASAmin retrieves the input values with a high precision for cluster mass, distance modulus, and foreground reddening, but they are somewhat lower for the remaining parameters. Given the statistical nature of the simulations, several runs should be performed to obtain significant convergence patterns. Specifically, we find that the retrieved (absolute minimum) parameters converge to mean values with a low dispersion as the Hess residuals decrease. When applied to actual young clusters, the retrieved parameters follow convergence patterns similar to the models. We show how the stochasticity associated with the early phases may affect the results, especially in low-mass clusters. This effect can be minimised by averaging out several twin clusters in the simulated Hess diagrams. Conclusions: Even for low-mass star clusters, ASAmin is sensitive to the values of cluster mass, age, distance modulus, star-formation spread, foreground and differential reddening, and to a lesser degree, binary fraction. Compared with simpler approaches, including binaries, a decaying star-formation rate, and a normally distributed differential reddening appears to yield more constrained parameters, especially the mass, age, and distance from the Sun. A robust determination of cluster parameters may have a positive impact on many fields. For instance, age, mass, and binary fraction are important for establishing the dynamical state of a cluster or for deriving a more precise star-formation rate in the Galaxy.

A model of spreading of sudden events on social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jiao; Zheng, Muhua; Zhang, Zi-Ke; Wang, Wei; Gu, Changgui; Liu, Zonghua

2018-03-01

Information spreading has been studied for decades, but its underlying mechanism is still under debate, especially for those ones spreading extremely fast through the Internet. By focusing on the information spreading data of six typical events on Sina Weibo, we surprisingly find that the spreading of modern information shows some new features, i.e., either extremely fast or slow, depending on the individual events. To understand its mechanism, we present a susceptible-accepted-recovered model with both information sensitivity and social reinforcement. Numerical simulations show that the model can reproduce the main spreading patterns of the six typical events. By this model, we further reveal that the spreading can be speeded up by increasing either the strength of information sensitivity or social reinforcement. Depending on the transmission probability and information sensitivity, the final accepted size can change from continuous to discontinuous transition when the strength of the social reinforcement is large. Moreover, an edge-based compartmental theory is presented to explain the numerical results. These findings may be of significance on the control of information spreading in modern society.

A global perspective of the limits of prediction skill based on the ECMWF ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zagar, Nedjeljka

2016-04-01

In this talk presents a new model of the global forecast error growth applied to the forecast errors simulated by the ensemble prediction system (ENS) of the ECMWF. The proxy for forecast errors is the total spread of the ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts obtained by the decomposition of the wind and geopotential fields in the normal-mode functions. In this way, the ensemble spread can be quantified separately for the balanced and inertio-gravity (IG) modes for every forecast range. Ensemble reliability is defined for the balanced and IG modes comparing the ensemble spread with the control analysis in each scale. The results show that initial uncertainties in the ECMWF ENS are largest in the tropical large-scale modes and their spatial distribution is similar to the distribution of the short-range forecast errors. Initially the ensemble spread grows most in the smallest scales and in the synoptic range of the IG modes but the overall growth is dominated by the increase of spread in balanced modes in synoptic and planetary scales in the midlatitudes. During the forecasts, the distribution of spread in the balanced and IG modes grows towards the climatological spread distribution characteristic of the analyses. The ENS system is found to be somewhat under-dispersive which is associated with the lack of tropical variability, primarily the Kelvin waves. The new model of the forecast error growth has three fitting parameters to parameterize the initial fast growth and a more slow exponential error growth later on. The asymptotic values of forecast errors are independent of the exponential growth rate. It is found that the asymptotic values of the errors due to unbalanced dynamics are around 10 days while the balanced and total errors saturate in 3 to 4 weeks. Reference: Žagar, N., R. Buizza, and J. Tribbia, 2015: A three-dimensional multivariate modal analysis of atmospheric predictability with application to the ECMWF ensemble. J. Atmos. Sci., 72, 4423-4444.

An agent-based computational model of the spread of tuberculosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Espíndola, Aquino L.; Bauch, Chris T.; Troca Cabella, Brenno C.; Souto Martinez, Alexandre

2011-05-01

In this work we propose an alternative model of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) and the emergence of drug resistance due to the treatment with antibiotics. We implement the simulations by an agent-based model computational approach where the spatial structure is taken into account. The spread of tuberculosis occurs according to probabilities defined by the interactions among individuals. The model was validated by reproducing results already known from the literature in which different treatment regimes yield the emergence of drug resistance. The different patterns of TB spread can be visualized at any time of the system evolution. The implementation details as well as some results of this alternative approach are discussed.

The dynamic behavior of an insoluble surfactant monolayer spreading on a thin liquid film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matar, Omar Kamal

The spreading of surface active material on thin liquid films is studied by investigating the dynamics of a finite reservoir of insoluble surfactant spreading on a thin layer of Newtonian liquid. The first part of this thesis examines the unperturbed spreading process. It is shown that Marangoni dominated spreading leads to large deformations in the underlying liquid layer which diminish when the relative contribution of surface diffusion, capillary and gravitational forces is increased. A comparison between experimental measurements of the film deformation obtained by Moiré topography with theoretical predictions, performed for the first time, reveals excellent agreement. This study also shows that the mass of surfactant that participates in the spreading is a miniscule fraction of the total mass deposited. Simulations of surfactant delivery in model pulmonary airways demonstrate the adverse effect of a non-uniform field of pre-existing contaminants on the spreading and the importance of its inclusion in determining an optimal set of conditions for rapid and efficacious spreading. The second part describes efforts aimed at identifying the physical mechanisms responsible for some unusual fingered spreading patterns observed experimentally. A linear stability analysis of self-similar solutions governing Marangoni dominated spreading in rectilinear geometry, conducted in the quasi-steady-state- approximation, predicts stable modes. A similar analysis including effects of surface diffusion and capillarity also yields asymptotically stable flow. A transient growth analysis of the non-normal operators governing the evolution of disturbances yields amplification of initially infinitesimal perturbations by orders of magnitude on time scales comparable to Marangoni shear times. Disturbances of all wavenumbers eventually decay in agreement with the long time analyses. Numerical simulations of the nonlinear governing equations, however, show that, for the parameter values considered, the large amplification is insufficient to drive sustained finger formation and unstable flow in the nonlinear regime. Simulations of mode coupling interactions reveal that coalescence of adjacent fingers leads to an overall shift of the fingering patterns to longer transverse length scales. Preliminary results also indicate that van der Waals forces can enhance the growth of transverse disturbances in the thinning region of the film leading to possible asymptotic growth.

African swine fever: how can global spread be prevented?

PubMed Central

Costard, Solenne; Wieland, Barbara; de Glanville, William; Jori, Ferran; Rowlands, Rebecca; Vosloo, Wilna; Roger, Francois; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Dixon, Linda K.

2009-01-01

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating haemorrhagic fever of pigs with mortality rates approaching 100 per cent. It causes major economic losses, threatens food security and limits pig production in affected countries. ASF is caused by a large DNA virus, African swine fever virus (ASFV). There is no vaccine against ASFV and this limits the options for disease control. ASF has been confined mainly to sub-Saharan Africa, where it is maintained in a sylvatic cycle and/or among domestic pigs. Wildlife hosts include wild suids and arthropod vectors. The relatively small numbers of incursions to other continents have proven to be very difficult to eradicate. Thus, ASF remained endemic in the Iberian peninsula until the mid-1990s following its introductions in 1957 and 1960 and the disease has remained endemic in Sardinia since its introduction in 1982. ASF has continued to spread within Africa to previously uninfected countries, including recently the Indian Ocean islands of Madagascar and Mauritius. Given the continued occurrence of ASF in sub-Saharan Africa and increasing global movements of people and products, it is not surprising that further transcontinental transmission has occurred. The introduction of ASF to Georgia in the Caucasus in 2007 and dissemination to neighbouring countries emphasizes the global threat posed by ASF and further increases the risks to other countries. We review the mechanisms by which ASFV is maintained within wildlife and domestic pig populations and how it can be transmitted. We then consider the risks for global spread of ASFV and discuss possibilities of how disease can be prevented. PMID:19687038

The burden of non-communicable diseases in Nigeria; in the context of globalization.

PubMed

Maiyaki, Musa Baba; Garbati, Musa Abubakar

2014-01-01

This paper highlights the tenets of globalization and how its elements have spread to sub-Saharan Africa, and Nigeria in particular. It assesses the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Nigeria and its relationship with globalization. It further describes the conceptual framework on which to view the impact of globalization on NCDs in Nigeria. It assesses the Nigerian dimension of the relationship between the risk factors of NCDs and globalization. Appropriate recommendations on tackling the burden of NCDs in Nigeria based on cost-effective, culturally sensitive, and evidence-based interventions are highlighted.

Medical Tourism, Medical Migration, and Global Justice: Implications for Biosecurity in a Globalized World.

PubMed

Cohen, I Glenn

2017-05-01

We live in the age of globalization. In medicine, that globalization has brought many benefits such as the diffusion of technology and the spread of health care training, but it has also brought threats to biosecurity. This article examines how medical tourism and medical migration pose risks to biosecurity. It also argues that designing legal responses to these risks requires not only technical competence but also a theory of global justice to guide that design. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press; all rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Clinical and molecular surveillance of drug resistant vivax malaria in Myanmar (2009-2016).

PubMed

Nyunt, Myat Htut; Han, Jin-Hee; Wang, Bo; Aye, Khin Myo; Aye, Kyin Hla; Lee, Seong-Kyun; Htut, Ye; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Han, Kay Thwe; Han, Eun-Taek

2017-03-16

One of the major challenges for control and elimination of malaria is ongoing spread and emergence of drug resistance. While epidemiology and surveillance of the drug resistance in falciparum malaria is being explored globally, there are few studies on drug resistance vivax malaria. To assess the spread of drug-resistant vivax malaria in Myanmar, a multisite, prospective, longitudinal study with retrospective analysis of previous therapeutic efficacy studies, was conducted. A total of 906 from nine study sites were included in retrospective analysis and 208 from three study sites in prospective study. Uncomplicated vivax mono-infected patients were recruited and monitored with longitudinal follow-up until day 28 after treatment with chloroquine. Amplification and sequence analysis of molecular markers, such as mutations in pvcrt-O, pvmdr1, pvdhps and pvdhfr, were done in day-0 samples in prospective study. Clinical failure cases were found only in Kawthaung, southern Myanmar and western Myanmar sites within 2009-2016. Chloroquine resistance markers, pvcrt-O 'AAG' insertion and pvmdr1 mutation (Y976F) showed higher mutant rate in southern and central Myanmar than western site: 66.7, 72.7 vs 48.3% and 26.7, 17.0 vs 1.7%, respectively. A similar pattern of significantly higher mutant rate of antifolate resistance markers, pvdhps (S382A, K512M, A553G) and pvdhfr (F57L/I, S58R, T61M, S117T/N) were noted. Although clinical failure rate was low, widespread distribution of chloroquine and antifolate resistance molecular makers alert to the emergence and spread of drug resistance vivax malaria in Myanmar. Proper strategy and action plan to eliminate and contain the resistant strain strengthened together with clinical and molecular surveillance on drug resistance vivax is recommended.

Hierarchical Genetic Analysis of German Cockroach (Blattella germanica) Populations from within Buildings to across Continents

PubMed Central

Vargo, Edward L.; Crissman, Jonathan R.; Booth, Warren; Santangelo, Richard G.; Mukha, Dmitry V.; Schal, Coby

2014-01-01

Understanding the population structure of species that disperse primarily by human transport is essential to predicting and controlling human-mediated spread of invasive species. The German cockroach (Blattella germanica) is a widespread urban invader that can actively disperse within buildings but is spread solely by human-mediated dispersal over longer distances; however, its population structure is poorly understood. Using microsatellite markers we investigated population structure at several spatial scales, from populations within single apartment buildings to populations from several cities across the U.S. and Eurasia. Both traditional measures of genetic differentiation and Bayesian clustering methods revealed increasing levels of genetic differentiation at greater geographic scales. Our results are consistent with active dispersal of cockroaches largely limited to movement within a building. Their low levels of genetic differentiation, yet limited active spread between buildings, suggests a greater likelihood of human-mediated dispersal at more local scales (within a city) than at larger spatial scales (within and between continents). About half the populations from across the U.S. clustered together with other U.S. populations, and isolation by distance was evident across the U.S. Levels of genetic differentiation among Eurasian cities were greater than those in the U.S. and greater than those between the U.S. and Eurasia, but no clear pattern of structure at the continent level was detected. MtDNA sequence variation was low and failed to reveal any geographical structure. The weak genetic structure detected here is likely due to a combination of historical admixture among populations and periodic population bottlenecks and founder events, but more extensive studies are needed to determine whether signatures of global movement may be present in this species. PMID:25020136

Errors and uncertainties in regional climate simulations of rainfall variability over Tunisia: a multi-model and multi-member approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fathalli, Bilel; Pohl, Benjamin; Castel, Thierry; Safi, Mohamed Jomâa

2018-02-01

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall over Tunisia (at 12 km spatial resolution) is analyzed in a multi-year (1992-2011) ten-member ensemble simulation performed using the WRF model, and a sample of regional climate hindcast simulations from Euro-CORDEX. RCM errors and skills are evaluated against a dense network of local rain gauges. Uncertainties arising, on the one hand, from the different model configurations and, on the other hand, from internal variability are furthermore quantified and ranked at different timescales using simple spread metrics. Overall, the WRF simulation shows good skill for simulating spatial patterns of rainfall amounts over Tunisia, marked by strong altitudinal and latitudinal gradients, as well as the rainfall interannual variability, in spite of systematic errors. Mean rainfall biases are wet in both DJF and JJA seasons for the WRF ensemble, while they are dry in winter and wet in summer for most of the used Euro-CORDEX models. The sign of mean annual rainfall biases over Tunisia can also change from one member of the WRF ensemble to another. Skills in regionalizing precipitation over Tunisia are season dependent, with better correlations and weaker biases in winter. Larger inter-member spreads are observed in summer, likely because of (1) an attenuated large-scale control on Mediterranean and Tunisian climate, and (2) a larger contribution of local convective rainfall to the seasonal amounts. Inter-model uncertainties are globally stronger than those attributed to model's internal variability. However, inter-member spreads can be of the same magnitude in summer, emphasizing the important stochastic nature of the summertime rainfall variability over Tunisia.

Turbulent forces within river plumes affect spread

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, Atreyee

2012-08-01

When rivers drain into oceans through narrow mouths, hydraulic forces squeeze the river water into buoyant plumes that are clearly visible in satellite images. Worldwide, river plumes not only disperse freshwater, sediments, and nutrients but also spread pollutants and organisms from estuaries into the open ocean. In the United States, the Columbia River—the largest river by volume draining into the Pacific Ocean from North America—generates a plume at its mouth that transports juvenile salmon and other fish into the ocean. Clearly, the behavior and spread of river plumes, such as the Columbia River plume, affect the nation's fishing industry as well as the global economy.

Hyaluronic acid gel distribution pattern in periocular area with high-resolution ultrasound imaging.

PubMed

Goh, Alice S; Kohn, Jocelyne C; Rootman, Daniel B; Lin, Joseph L; Goldberg, Robert A

2014-05-01

High-resolution ultrasound (HRUS) is a useful tool in defining anatomic and dynamic soft tissue relationships in the periocular area. It also allows visualization of hyaluronic acid (HA) gel within the soft tissue. The authors investigate the difference in the distribution pattern between 2 HA fillers in the periocular tissue using HRUS. The charts of 10 patients who underwent periocular injection using HA gel filler and were subsequently examined with HRUS were reviewed. Half of the patients (n = 5) were treated with Restylane-L (Medicis Aesthetics, Inc, Scottsdale, Arizona) and the remaining 5 with Belotero Balance (Merz Aesthetics, Inc, San Mateo, California). Ultrasonographic evaluation (Logiq p6; GE Healthcare, Waukesha, Washington) was performed before and immediately after HA filler injection. The HA appears as a hypoechoic image within the soft tissue plane on HRUS. Restylane-L filler formed a localized hypoechoic image within the tissue, with some spread into bubbles or pearl-like configuration. Belotero Balance spread more widely into the tissue plane and diffused into an elongated or spindle-shaped hypoechoic image. Our preliminary data suggest that HA gel fillers with differing production technologies show distinct spread and distribution patterns in the periocular tissues on HRUS examination.

Climate change and skin.

PubMed

Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

2013-02-01

Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many dermatoses.

Spatial spreading of infectious disease via local and national mobility networks in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Okyu; Son, Woo-Sik

2017-12-01

We study the spread of infectious disease based on local- and national-scale mobility networks. We construct a local mobility network using data on urban bus services to estimate local-scale movement of people. We also construct a national mobility network from orientation-destination data of vehicular traffic between highway tollgates to evaluate national-scale movement of people. A metapopulation model is used to simulate the spread of epidemics. Thus, the number of infected people is simulated using a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model within the administrative division, and inter-division spread of infected people is determined through local and national mobility networks. In this paper, we consider two scenarios for epidemic spread. In the first, the infectious disease only spreads through local-scale movement of people, that is, the local mobility network. In the second, it spreads via both local and national mobility networks. For the former, the simulation results show infected people sequentially spread to neighboring divisions. Yet for the latter, we observe a faster spreading pattern to distant divisions. Thus, we confirm the national mobility network enhances synchronization among the incidence profiles of all administrative divisions.

The Hegemony of English as a Global Language: Reclaiming Local Knowledge and Culture in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guo, Yan; Beckett, Gulbahar H.

2007-01-01

English has become the dominant global language of communication, business, aviation, entertainment, diplomacy and the internet. Governments as well as some scholars appear to be accepting such a spread of English uncritically. However, we argue that the increasing dominance of the English language is contributing to neocolonialism by empowering…

Banishing Tobacco. Worldwatch Paper 68.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, William U.

This report focuses on topics and issues related to the global use of tobacco. It consists of an introduction and six major sections. These sections deal with: (1) the epidemic rate at which smoking is spreading, indicating that the global rate has grown nearly 75 percent over the past two decades and is growing at 2.1 percent per year, faster…

Global Rankings in the Nordic Region: Challenging the Identity of Research-Intensive Universities?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elken, Mari; Hovdhaugen, Elisabeth; Stensaker, Bjørn

2016-01-01

Global university rankings currently attract considerable attention, and it is often assumed that such rankings may cause universities to prioritize activities and outcomes that will have a positive effect in their ranking position. A possible consequence of this could be the spread of a particular model of an "ideal" university. This…

Global Trends and Local Realities: Lessons about Economic Benefits, Selves and Identity from a Swiss Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Csillagh, Virág

2015-01-01

Inspired by the unexpected results of a standardized questionnaire survey of Swiss university students' motivation and attitudes toward English, the paper discusses the influence of global and local contexts on language learners' motivation and identity. As a result of the unprecedented spread of English as a foreign language (Crystal, 2003;…

Communicative English in the Primary Classroom: Implications for English-in-Education Policy and Practice in Bangladesh

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hamid, M. Obaidul; Honan, Eileen

2012-01-01

Globalisation and the global spread of English have led nation-states to introduce English into the early years of schooling to equip their citizens with communicative competence in order to compete within a global economy for individual and national development. In teaching English as a Second/Foreign Language, nations have adopted…

Global change and marine communities: alien species and climate change.

PubMed

Occhipinti-Ambrogi, Anna

2007-01-01

Anthropogenic influences on the biosphere since the advent of the industrial age are increasingly causing global changes. Climatic change and the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are ranking high in scientific and public agendas, and other components of global change are also frequently addressed, among which are the introductions of non indigenous species (NIS) in biogeographic regions well separated from the donor region, often followed by spectacular invasions. In the marine environment, both climatic change and spread of alien species have been studied extensively; this review is aimed at examining the main responses of ecosystems to climatic change, taking into account the increasing importance of biological invasions. Some general principles on NIS introductions in the marine environment are recalled, such as the importance of propagule pressure and of development stages during the time course of an invasion. Climatic change is known to affect many ecological properties; it interacts also with NIS in many possible ways. Direct (proximate) effects on individuals and populations of altered physical-chemical conditions are distinguished from indirect effects on emergent properties (species distribution, diversity, and production). Climatically driven changes may affect both local dispersal mechanisms, due to the alteration of current patterns, and competitive interactions between NIS and native species, due to the onset of new thermal optima and/or different carbonate chemistry. As well as latitudinal range expansions of species correlated with changing temperature conditions, and effects on species richness and the correlated extinction of native species, some invasions may provoke multiple effects which involve overall ecosystem functioning (material flow between trophic groups, primary production, relative extent of organic material decomposition, extent of benthic-pelagic coupling). Some examples are given, including a special mention of the situation of the Mediterranean Sea, where so many species have been introduced recently, and where some have spread in very large quantities. An increasing effort by marine scientists is required, not only to monitor the state of the environment, but also to help predicting future changes and finding ways to mitigate or manage them.

Magmatic controls on axial relief and faulting at mid-ocean ridges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhonglan; Buck, W. Roger

2018-06-01

Previous models do not simultaneously reproduce the observed range of axial relief and fault patterns at plate spreading centers. We suggest that this failure is due to the approximation that magmatic dikes open continuously rather than in discrete events. During short - lived events, dikes open not only in the strong axial lithosphere but also some distance into the underlying weaker asthenosphere. Axial valley relief affects the partitioning of magma between the lithosphere and asthenosphere during diking events. The deeper the valley, the more magma goes into lithospheric dikes in each event and so the greater the average opening rate of those dikes. The long-term rate of lithospheric dike opening controls faulting rate and axial depth. The feedback between axial valley depth D and lithospheric dike opening rate allows us to analytically relate steady-state values of D to lithospheric thickness HL and crustal thickness HC. A two-dimensional model numerical model with a fixed axial lithospheric structure illustrates the analytic model implications for axial faulting. The predictions of this new model are broadly consistent with global and segment-scale trends of axial depth and fault patterns with HL and HC.

Climate impact on spreading of airborne infectious diseases. Complex network based modeling of climate influences on influenza like illnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenner, Frank; Marwan, Norbert; Hoffmann, Peter

2017-06-01

In this study we combined a wide range of data sets to simulate the outbreak of an airborne infectious disease that is directly transmitted from human to human. The basis is a complex network whose structures are inspired by global air traffic data (from openflights.org) containing information about airports, airport locations, direct flight connections and airplane types. Disease spreading inside every node is realized with a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) compartmental model. Disease transmission rates in our model are depending on the climate environment and therefore vary in time and from node to node. To implement the correlation between water vapor pressure and influenza transmission rate [J. Shaman, M. Kohn, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 106, 3243 (2009)], we use global available climate reanalysis data (WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim, WFDEI). During our sensitivity analysis we found that disease spreading dynamics are strongly depending on network properties, the climatic environment of the epidemic outbreak location, and the season during the year in which the outbreak is happening.

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Applications and Outreach for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janney, D. W.; Kirschbaum, D.

2017-12-01

Too much or too little rain can serve as a tipping point for triggering catastrophic flooding and landslides or widespread drought. Knowing when, where and how much rain is falling globally is vital to understanding how people may be more or less impacted by disasters, the spread of water or vector-borne disease, or crop shortages. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission provides near real-time precipitation data worldwide that is used by a broad range of end users, from tropical cyclone forecasters to agricultural modelers to researchers evaluating the spread of diseases. The GPM mission has an active applications and outreach program designed to engage and work closely with user communities across a broad spectrum of societal benefit areas with the goal of extending the application of GPM and other NASA data to support decision making. This presentation will outline some examples of how GPM has been engaging with the user community, highlighting some past and planned initiatives with specific organizations and across several thematic areas.

Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States

Treesearch

Emma J. Hudgins; Andrew M. Liebhold; Brian Leung; Regan Early

2017-01-01

We tested whether a general spread model could capture macroecological patterns across all damaging invasive forest pests in the United States. We showed that a common constant dispersal kernel model, simulated from the discovery date, explained 67.94% of the variation in range size across all pests, and had 68.00% locational accuracy between predicted and observed...

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Treesearch

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Modelling the Wind-Borne Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms

PubMed Central

Ssematimba, Amos; Hagenaars, Thomas J.; de Jong, Mart C. M.

2012-01-01

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km. PMID:22348042

Modelling the wind-borne spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus between farms.

PubMed

Ssematimba, Amos; Hagenaars, Thomas J; de Jong, Mart C M

2012-01-01

A quantitative understanding of the spread of contaminated farm dust between locations is a prerequisite for obtaining much-needed insight into one of the possible mechanisms of disease spread between farms. Here, we develop a model to calculate the quantity of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at various locations downwind of a source farm and apply the model to assess the possible contribution of the wind-borne route to the transmission of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. The model is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Model by incorporating the dust deposition process, pathogen decay, and a model for the infection process on exposed farms. Using poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent probability of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparison between the transmission risk pattern predicted by the model and the pattern observed during the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is insufficient to explain the observations although it could contribute substantially to the spread over short distance ranges, for example, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances up to 25 km.

Role of Human-Mediated Dispersal in the Spread of the Pinewood Nematode in China

PubMed Central

Robinet, Christelle; Roques, Alain; Pan, Hongyang; Fang, Guofei; Ye, Jianren; Zhang, Yanzhuo; Sun, Jianghua

2009-01-01

Background Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays. Methodology/Principal Findings We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111–339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (P<0.05). Since 2001, the number of new records of the nematode was multiplied by a factor of 5 and the spread distance by a factor of 2. We combined a diffusion model to describe the short distance spread with a stochastic, individual based model to describe the long distance jumps. This combined model generated an error of only 13% when used to predict the presence of the nematode. Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40–55% by 2025. Conclusions/Significance This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans. PMID:19247498

Global climate change and infectious diseases.

PubMed Central

Shope, R

1991-01-01

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholerae is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help us to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. PMID:1820262

Global climate change and infectious diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shope, R.

1991-12-01

The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in Northmore » America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.« less

Development of thunderstorm monitoring technologies and algorithms by integration of radar, sensors, and satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adzhieva, Aida A.; Shapovalov, Vitaliy A.; Boldyreff, Anton S.

2017-10-01

In the context of rising the frequency of natural disasters and catastrophes humanity has to develop methods and tools to ensure safe living conditions. Effectiveness of preventive measures greatly depends on quality and lead time of the forecast of disastrous natural phenomena, which is based on the amount of knowledge about natural hazards, their causes, manifestations, and impact. To prevent them it is necessary to get complete and comprehensive information about the extent of spread and severity of natural processes that can act within a defined territory. For these purposes the High Mountain Geophysical Institute developed the automated workplace for mining, analysis and archiving of radar, satellite, lightning sensors information and terrestrial (automatic weather station) weather data. The combination and aggregation of data from different sources of meteorological data provides a more informativity of the system. Satellite data shows the global cloud region in visible and infrared ranges, but have an uncertainty in terms of weather events and large time interval between the two periods of measurements, which complicates the use of this information for very short range forecasts of weather phenomena. Radar and lightning sensors data provide the detection of weather phenomena and their localization on the background of the global pattern of cloudiness in the region and have a low period measurement of atmospheric phenomena (hail, thunderstorms, showers, squalls, tornadoes). The authors have developed the improved algorithms for recognition of dangerous weather phenomena, based on the complex analysis of incoming information using the mathematical apparatus of pattern recognition.

Spatiotemporal Patterns Produced by Bacteria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimada, Yuji; Nakahara, Akio; Matsushita, Mitsugu; Matsuyama, Tohey

1995-06-01

Spatiotemporal patterns formed by a bacterial colony of Proteus mirabilis on an agar plate were observed. About half or one hour after the colony spread over the entire surface of the agar medium in a petridish, various patterns including target and spiral patterns appeared. They are very similar to those seen in other dissipative systems, such as chemical oscillations and electrohydrodynamic convective systems. Microscopic observations revealed that the collective motion of bacterial cells is responsible for the formation of these spatiotemporal patterns.

Differential Dynamics of Platelet Contact and Spreading

PubMed Central

Lee, Dooyoung; Fong, Karen P.; King, Michael R.; Brass, Lawrence F.; Hammer, Daniel A.

2012-01-01

Platelet spreading is critical for hemostatic plug formation and thrombosis. However, the detailed dynamics of platelet spreading as a function of receptor-ligand adhesive interactions has not been thoroughly investigated. Using reflection interference contrast microscopy, we found that both adhesive interactions and PAR4 activation affect the dynamics of platelet membrane contact formation during spreading. The initial growth of close contact area during spreading was controlled by the combination of different immobilized ligands or PAR4 activation on fibrinogen, whereas the growth of the total area of spreading was independent of adhesion type and PAR4 signaling. We found that filopodia extend to their maximal length and then contract over time; and that filopodial protrusion and expansion were affected by PAR4 signaling. Upon PAR4 activation, the integrin αIIbβ3 mediated close contact to fibrinogen substrata and led to the formation of ringlike patterns in the platelet contact zone. A systematic study of platelet spreading of GPVI-, α2-, or β3-deficient platelets on collagen or fibrinogen suggests the integrin α2 is indispensable for spreading on collagen. The platelet collagen receptors GPVI and α2 regulate integrin αIIbβ3-mediated platelet spreading on fibrinogen. This work elucidates quantitatively how receptor-ligand adhesion and biochemical signals synergistically control platelet spreading. PMID:22325269

Effects of awareness diffusion and self-initiated awareness behavior on epidemic spreading - An approach based on multiplex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kan, Jia-Qian; Zhang, Hai-Feng

2017-03-01

In this paper, we study the interplay between the epidemic spreading and the diffusion of awareness in multiplex networks. In the model, an infectious disease can spread in one network representing the paths of epidemic spreading (contact network), leading to the diffusion of awareness in the other network (information network), and then the diffusion of awareness will cause individuals to take social distances, which in turn affects the epidemic spreading. As for the diffusion of awareness, we assume that, on the one hand, individuals can be informed by other aware neighbors in information network, on the other hand, the susceptible individuals can be self-awareness induced by the infected neighbors in the contact networks (local information) or mass media (global information). Through Markov chain approach and numerical computations, we find that the density of infected individuals and the epidemic threshold can be affected by the structures of the two networks and the effective transmission rate of the awareness. However, we prove that though the introduction of the self-awareness can lower the density of infection, which cannot increase the epidemic threshold no matter of the local information or global information. Our finding is remarkably different to many previous results on single-layer network: local information based behavioral response can alter the epidemic threshold. Furthermore, our results indicate that the nodes with more neighbors (hub nodes) in information networks are easier to be informed, as a result, their risk of infection in contact networks can be effectively reduced.

Human ecology and behavior and sexually transmitted bacterial infections.

PubMed Central

Holmes, K K

1994-01-01

The three direct determinants of the rate of spread of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) are sexual behaviors, the mean duration of infectiousness, and the mean efficiency of sexual transmission of each STD. Underlying ecological and behavioral factors that operate through one or more of these direct determinants lie on a continuum, ranging from those most proximate back to those more remote (in time or mechanism) from the direct determinants. Most remote and least modifiable are the historical stages of economic development that even today conspicuously influence patterns of sexual behavior. Next are the distribution and changing patterns of climate, hygiene, and population density; the global population explosion and stages of the demographic transition; and ongoing changes in human physiology (e.g., menarche at younger age) and culture (e.g., later marriage). More proximate on the continuum are war, migration, and travel; and current policies for economic development and social welfare. Most recent or modifiable are technologic and commercial product development (e.g., oral contraceptives); circumcision, condom, spermicide, and contraception practices; patterns of illicit drug use that influence sexual behaviors; and the accessibility, quality, and use of STD health care. These underlying factors help explain why the curable bacterial STDs are epidemic in developing countries and why the United States is the only industrialized country that has failed to control bacterial STDs during the AIDS era. Images PMID:8146138

Spatial distribution of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases in China: A retrospective study

PubMed Central

Zhu, Bin; Fu, Yang; Liu, Jinlin

2018-01-01

Background China is the largest developing country with a relatively developed public health system. To further prevent and eliminate the spread of infectious diseases, China has listed 39 notifiable infectious diseases characterized by wide prevalence or great harm, and classified them into classes A, B, and C, with severity decreasing across classes. Class A diseases have been almost eradicated in China, thus making class B diseases a priority in infectious disease prevention and control. In this retrospective study, we analyze the spatial distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases that remain active all over China. Methods Global and local Moran’s I and corresponding graphic tools are adopted to explore and visualize the global and local spatial distribution of the incidence of the selected epidemics, respectively. Inter-correlations of clustering patterns of each pair of diseases and a cumulative summary of the high/low cluster frequency of the provincial units are also provided by means of figures and maps. Results Of the 12 most commonly notifiable class B infectious diseases, viral hepatitis and tuberculosis show high incidence rates and account for more than half of the reported cases. Almost all the diseases, except pertussis, exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation at the provincial level. All diseases feature varying spatial concentrations. Nevertheless, associations exist between spatial distribution patterns, with some provincial units displaying the same type of cluster features for two or more infectious diseases. Overall, high–low (unit with high incidence surrounded by units with high incidence, the same below) and high–high spatial cluster areas tend to be prevalent in the provincial units located in western and southwest China, whereas low–low and low–high spatial cluster areas abound in provincial units in north and east China. Conclusion Despite the various distribution patterns of 12 class B notifiable infectious diseases, certain similarities between their spatial distributions are present. Substantial evidence is available to support disease-specific, location-specific, and disease-combined interventions. Regarding provinces that show high–high/high–low patterns of multiple diseases, comprehensive interventions targeting different diseases should be established. As to the adjacent provincial units revealing similar patterns, coordinated actions need to be taken across borders. PMID:29621351

Candida auris

MedlinePlus

... auris infection spread globally? CDC conducted whole genome sequencing of C. auris specimens from countries in the ... Asia, southern Africa, and South America. Whole genome sequencing produces detailed DNA fingerprints of organisms. CDC found ...

Optimal control strategy for a novel computer virus propagation model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chunming; Huang, Haitao

2016-06-01

This paper aims to study the combined impact of reinstalling system and network topology on the spread of computer viruses over the Internet. Based on scale-free network, this paper proposes a novel computer viruses propagation model-SLBOSmodel. A systematic analysis of this new model shows that the virus-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when its spreading threshold is less than one; nevertheless, it is proved that the viral equilibrium is permanent if the spreading threshold is greater than one. Then, the impacts of different model parameters on spreading threshold are analyzed. Next, an optimally controlled SLBOS epidemic model on complex networks is also studied. We prove that there is an optimal control existing for the control problem. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate the main results.

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control

PubMed Central

Motta, Paolo; Porphyre, Thibaud; Handel, Ian; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngu Ngwa, Victor; Tanya, Vincent; Morgan, Kenton; Christley, Rob; Bronsvoort, Barend M. deC.

2017-01-01

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links. PMID:28266589

House-to-house human movement drives dengue virus transmission

PubMed Central

Stoddard, Steven T.; Forshey, Brett M.; Morrison, Amy C.; Paz-Soldan, Valerie A.; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M.; Astete, Helvio; Reiner, Robert C.; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Elder, John P.; Halsey, Eric S.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Kitron, Uriel; Scott, Thomas W.

2013-01-01

Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease of growing global health importance. Prevention efforts focus on mosquito control, with limited success. New insights into the spatiotemporal drivers of dengue dynamics are needed to design improved disease-prevention strategies. Given the restricted range of movement of the primary mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti, local human movements may be an important driver of dengue virus (DENV) amplification and spread. Using contact-site cluster investigations in a case-control design, we demonstrate that, at an individual level, risk for human infection is defined by visits to places where contact with infected mosquitoes is likely, independent of distance from the home. Our data indicate that house-to-house human movements underlie spatial patterns of DENV incidence, causing marked heterogeneity in transmission rates. At a collective level, transmission appears to be shaped by social connections because routine movements among the same places, such as the homes of family and friends, are often similar for the infected individual and their contacts. Thus, routine, house-to-house human movements do play a key role in spread of this vector-borne pathogen at fine spatial scales. This finding has important implications for dengue prevention, challenging the appropriateness of current approaches to vector control. We argue that reexamination of existing paradigms regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of DENV and other vector-borne pathogens, especially the importance of human movement, will lead to improvements in disease prevention. PMID:23277539

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, Paolo; Porphyre, Thibaud; Handel, Ian; Hamman, Saidou M.; Ngu Ngwa, Victor; Tanya, Vincent; Morgan, Kenton; Christley, Rob; Bronsvoort, Barend M. Dec.

2017-03-01

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links.

Towards the planning and design of disturbance patterns across scales to counter biological invasions

Treesearch

Giovanni Zurlini; Irene Petrosillo; Kenneth Bruce Jones; Bai-Lian Li; Kurt Hans Riitters; Pietro Medagli; Silvano Marchiori; Nicola Zaccarelli

2013-01-01

The way in which disturbances from human land use are patterned in space across scales can have important consequences for efforts to govern human/environment with regard to, but not only, invasive spread-dispersal processes. In this context, we explore the potential of disturbance patterns along a continuum of scales as proxies for identifying the geographical regions...

Analytical solution of a stochastic model of risk spreading with global coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morita, Satoru; Yoshimura, Jin

2013-11-01

We study a stochastic matrix model to understand the mechanics of risk spreading (or bet hedging) by dispersion. Up to now, this model has been mostly dealt with numerically, except for the well-mixed case. Here, we present an analytical result that shows that optimal dispersion leads to Zipf's law. Moreover, we found that the arithmetic ensemble average of the total growth rate converges to the geometric one, because the sample size is finite.

Epidemic spread on interconnected metapopulation networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Bing; Tanaka, Gouhei; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

2014-09-01

Numerous real-world networks have been observed to interact with each other, resulting in interconnected networks that exhibit diverse, nontrivial behavior with dynamical processes. Here we investigate epidemic spreading on interconnected networks at the level of metapopulation. Through a mean-field approximation for a metapopulation model, we find that both the interaction network topology and the mobility probabilities between subnetworks jointly influence the epidemic spread. Depending on the interaction between subnetworks, proper controls of mobility can efficiently mitigate epidemics, whereas an extremely biased mobility to one subnetwork will typically cause a severe outbreak and promote the epidemic spreading. Our analysis provides a basic framework for better understanding of epidemic behavior in related transportation systems as well as for better control of epidemics by guiding human mobility patterns.

Assessing the Risk of International Spread of Yellow Fever Virus: A Mathematical Analysis of an Urban Outbreak in Asunción, 2008

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Arana-Vizcarrondo, Neysarí; Biggerstaff, Brad J.; Gallagher, Nancy; Marano, Nina; Staples, J. Erin

2012-01-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV), a mosquito-borne virus endemic to tropical Africa and South America, is capable of causing large urban outbreaks of human disease. With the ease of international travel, urban outbreaks could lead to the rapid spread and subsequent transmission of YFV in distant locations. We designed a stochastic metapopulation model with spatiotemporally explicit transmissibility scenarios to simulate the global spread of YFV from a single urban outbreak by infected airline travelers. In simulations of a 2008 outbreak in Asunción, Paraguay, local outbreaks occurred in 12.8% of simulations and international spread in 2.0%. Using simple probabilistic models, we found that local incidence, travel rates, and basic transmission parameters are sufficient to assess the probability of introduction and autochthonous transmission events. These models could be used to assess the risk of YFV spread during an urban outbreak and identify locations at risk for YFV introduction and subsequent autochthonous transmission. PMID:22302873

From public outrage to the burst of public violence: An epidemic-like model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nizamani, Sarwat; Memon, Nasrullah; Galam, Serge

2014-12-01

This study extends classical models of spreading epidemics to describe the phenomenon of contagious public outrage, which eventually leads to the spread of violence following a disclosure of some unpopular political decisions and/or activity. Accordingly, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate from the start, the internal dynamics by which an external event is turned into internal violence within a population. Five kinds of agents are considered: “Upset” (U), “Violent” (V), “Sensitive” (S), “Immune” (I), and “Relaxed” (R), leading to a set of ordinary differential equations, which in turn yield the dynamics of spreading of each type of agents among the population. The process is stopped with the deactivation of the associated issue. Conditions coinciding with a twofold spreading of public violence are singled out. The results shed new light to understand terror activity and provides some hint on how to curb the spreading of violence within population globally sensitive to specific world issues. Recent violent events in the world are discussed.

Assessing the risk of international spread of yellow fever virus: a mathematical analysis of an urban outbreak in Asuncion, 2008.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Arana-Vizcarrondo, Neysarí; Biggerstaff, Brad J; Gallagher, Nancy; Marano, Nina; Staples, J Erin

2012-02-01

Yellow fever virus (YFV), a mosquito-borne virus endemic to tropical Africa and South America, is capable of causing large urban outbreaks of human disease. With the ease of international travel, urban outbreaks could lead to the rapid spread and subsequent transmission of YFV in distant locations. We designed a stochastic metapopulation model with spatiotemporally explicit transmissibility scenarios to simulate the global spread of YFV from a single urban outbreak by infected airline travelers. In simulations of a 2008 outbreak in Asunción, Paraguay, local outbreaks occurred in 12.8% of simulations and international spread in 2.0%. Using simple probabilistic models, we found that local incidence, travel rates, and basic transmission parameters are sufficient to assess the probability of introduction and autochthonous transmission events. These models could be used to assess the risk of YFV spread during an urban outbreak and identify locations at risk for YFV introduction and subsequent autochthonous transmission.

Selective epidemic vaccination under the performant routing algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bamaarouf, O.; Alweimine, A. Ould Baba; Rachadi, A.; EZ-Zahraouy, H.

2018-04-01

Despite the extensive research on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the effect of the routing algorithms strategies on the traffic-driven epidemic spreading has not received an adequate attention. It is well known that more performant routing algorithm strategies are used to overcome the congestion problem. However, our main result shows unexpectedly that these algorithms favor the virus spreading more than the case where the shortest path based algorithm is used. In this work, we studied the virus spreading in a complex network using the efficient path and the global dynamic routing algorithms as compared to shortest path strategy. Some previous studies have tried to modify the routing rules to limit the virus spreading, but at the expense of reducing the traffic transport efficiency. This work proposed a solution to overcome this drawback by using a selective vaccination procedure instead of a random vaccination used often in the literature. We found that the selective vaccination succeeded in eradicating the virus better than a pure random intervention for the performant routing algorithm strategies.

Dodging a Bullet: WHO, SARS, and the Successful Management of Infectious Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelson, Evan S.

2005-01-01

The purpose of this article is to analyze the policy decisions made by the World Health Organization (WHO) in working to fight the spread of the first truly global infectious disease, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), of the 21st century. In particular, the author pays attention to the WHO's Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network…

Employee assistance programs: a worldwide perspective.

PubMed

Burgess, K M; O'Donnell, W J; Bennett, A A; von Vietinghoff-Scheel, K

1997-08-01

Once limited to U.S. corporations, employee assistance programs (EAPs) are now spreading around the world. The authors review global EAP trends and identify similarities and differences among EAPs in North America, Europe, Central and South America, the Asia-Pacific region, and the Caribbean. Through affiliations between international professional associations and services to multinational corporations, the EAP field is quietly creating globalized behavioral health services.

Modelling the effects of global climate change on Chikungunya transmission in the 21st century.

PubMed

Tjaden, Nils B; Suk, Jonathan E; Fischer, Dominik; Thomas, Stephanie M; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Semenza, Jan C

2017-06-19

The arrival and rapid spread of the mosquito-borne viral disease Chikungunya across the Americas is one of the most significant public health developments of recent years, preceding and mirroring the subsequent spread of Zika. Globalization in trade and travel can lead to the importation of these viruses, but climatic conditions strongly affect the efficiency of transmission in local settings. In order to direct preparedness for future outbreaks, it is necessary to anticipate global regions that could become suitable for Chikungunya transmission. Here, we present global correlative niche models for autochthonous Chikungunya transmission. These models were used as the basis for projections under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. In a further step, hazard maps, which account for population densities, were produced. The baseline models successfully delineate current areas of active Chikungunya transmission. Projections under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios suggest the likelihood of expansion of transmission-suitable areas in many parts of the world, including China, sub-Saharan Africa, South America, the United States and continental Europe. The models presented here can be used to inform public health preparedness planning in a highly interconnected world.

Impact of climate and host availability on future distribution of Colorado potato beetle.

PubMed

Wang, Cong; Hawthorne, David; Qin, Yujia; Pan, Xubin; Li, Zhihong; Zhu, Shuifang

2017-07-03

Colorado Potato Beetle (CPB) is a devastating invasive pest of potato both in its native North America and now across Eurasia. It also damages eggplant, tomato and feeds on several wild species in the Solanaceae, such as S. eleagnifolium and S. rostratum Dunal (SR). Since first categorized as a pest in 1864, CPB has spread rapidly across North America, Europe and Asia. In light of its invasiveness and economic importance, it is necessary to study how climate change and host availability may alter the distribution of the CPB. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models were used to anticipate global range expansion as influenced by environmental conditions, and by the possibility of cooperative invasion of CPB and its wild host SR. The results indicate that both CPB and SR can occupy warm areas of North America, South Africa, Europe, China, and Australia. Future climate conditions may promote CPB expansion into northern regions and SR into the circumpolar latitudes. The existing range and continued spread of SR may also assist the global expansion of CPB. Future management of this pest should consider the impacts of global climate change and host availability on its potential global distribution.

A global reference model of Curie-point depths based on EMAG2

PubMed Central

Li, Chun-Feng; Lu, Yu; Wang, Jian

2017-01-01

In this paper, we use a robust inversion algorithm, which we have tested in many regional studies, to obtain the first global model of Curie-point depth (GCDM) from magnetic anomaly inversion based on fractal magnetization. Statistically, the oceanic Curie depth mean is smaller than the continental one, but continental Curie depths are almost bimodal, showing shallow Curie points in some old cratons. Oceanic Curie depths show modifications by hydrothermal circulations in young oceanic lithosphere and thermal perturbations in old oceanic lithosphere. Oceanic Curie depths also show strong dependence on the spreading rate along active spreading centers. Curie depths and heat flow are correlated, following optimal theoretical curves of average thermal conductivities K = ~2.0 W(m°C)−1 for the ocean and K = ~2.5 W(m°C)−1 for the continent. The calculated heat flow from Curie depths and large-interval gridding of measured heat flow all indicate that the global heat flow average is about 70.0 mW/m2, leading to a global heat loss ranging from ~34.6 to 36.6 TW. PMID:28322332

Human mobility and the spatial transmission of influenza in the United States.

PubMed

Charu, Vivek; Zeger, Scott; Gog, Julia; Bjørnstad, Ottar N; Kissler, Stephen; Simonsen, Lone; Grenfell, Bryan T; Viboud, Cécile

2017-02-01

Seasonal influenza epidemics offer unique opportunities to study the invasion and re-invasion waves of a pathogen in a partially immune population. Detailed patterns of spread remain elusive, however, due to lack of granular disease data. Here we model high-volume city-level medical claims data and human mobility proxies to explore the drivers of influenza spread in the US during 2002-2010. Although the speed and pathways of spread varied across seasons, seven of eight epidemics likely originated in the Southern US. Each epidemic was associated with 1-5 early long-range transmission events, half of which sparked onward transmission. Gravity model estimates indicate a sharp decay in influenza transmission with the distance between infectious and susceptible cities, consistent with spread dominated by work commutes rather than air traffic. Two early-onset seasons associated with antigenic novelty had particularly localized modes of spread, suggesting that novel strains may spread in a more localized fashion than previously anticipated.

Intercontinental spread of asian-origin H5N8 to North America through Beringia by migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Dong-Hun; Kim Torchetti, Mia; Winker, Kevin; Ip, Hon S.; Swayne, David E.; Song, Chang-Seon

2015-01-01

Phylogenetic network analysis and understanding of waterfowl migration patterns suggest the Eurasian H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 avian influenza virus emerged in late 2013 in China, spread in early 2014 to South Korea and Japan, and reached Siberia and Beringia by summer 2014 via migratory birds. Three genetically distinct subgroups emerged and subsequently spread along different flyways during fall 2014 into Europe, North America, and East Asia, respectively. All three subgroups reappeared in Japan, a wintering site for waterfowl from Eurasia and parts of North America.

Homophily and polarization in the age of misinformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bessi, Alessandro; Petroni, Fabio; Vicario, Michela Del; Zollo, Fabiana; Anagnostopoulos, Aris; Scala, Antonio; Caldarelli, Guido; Quattrociocchi, Walter

2016-10-01

The World Economic Forum listed massive digital misinformation as one of the main threats for our society. The spreading of unsubstantiated rumors may have serious consequences on public opinion such as in the case of rumors about Ebola causing disruption to health-care workers. In this work we target Facebook to characterize information consumption patterns of 1.2 M Italian users with respect to verified (science news) and unverified (conspiracy news) contents. Through a thorough quantitative analysis we provide important insights about the anatomy of the system across which misinformation might spread. In particular, we show that users' engagement on verified (or unverified) content correlates with the number of friends having similar consumption patterns (homophily). Finally, we measure how this social system responded to the injection of 4,709 false information. We find that the frequent (and selective) exposure to specific kind of content ( polarization) is a good proxy for the detection of homophile clusters where certain kind of rumors are more likely to spread.