From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaneko, Kunihiko, E-mail: kaneko@complex.c.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

Clustering of short and long-term co-movements in international financial and commodity markets in wavelet domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahmiri, Salim; Uddin, Gazi Salah; Bekiros, Stelios

2017-11-01

We propose a general framework for measuring short and long term dynamics in asset classes based on the wavelet presentation of clustering analysis. The empirical results show strong evidence of instability of the financial system aftermath of the global financial crisis. Indeed, both short and long-term dynamics have significantly changed after the global financial crisis. This study provides an interesting insights complex structure of global financial and economic system.

A review on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using global positioning system and accelerometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yunus, Mohd Zulkifli Mohd; Ibrahim, Nuremira; Ahmad, Fatimah Shafinaz

2018-02-01

This paper reviews previous research on bridge dynamic displacement monitoring using Global Positioning System (GPS) and an accelerometer for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) of bridge. These include the review of the advantages and disadvantages of the measurement as well as the methodology of the measurements used in the recent research study. This review could provide a preliminary decision overview for students or researchers before initiating a research related to the bridge dynamic displacement monitoring.

Fractional dynamics of globally slow transcription and its impact on deterministic genetic oscillation.

PubMed

Wei, Kun; Gao, Shilong; Zhong, Suchuan; Ma, Hong

2012-01-01

In dynamical systems theory, a system which can be described by differential equations is called a continuous dynamical system. In studies on genetic oscillation, most deterministic models at early stage are usually built on ordinary differential equations (ODE). Therefore, gene transcription which is a vital part in genetic oscillation is presupposed to be a continuous dynamical system by default. However, recent studies argued that discontinuous transcription might be more common than continuous transcription. In this paper, by appending the inserted silent interval lying between two neighboring transcriptional events to the end of the preceding event, we established that the running time for an intact transcriptional event increases and gene transcription thus shows slow dynamics. By globally replacing the original time increment for each state increment by a larger one, we introduced fractional differential equations (FDE) to describe such globally slow transcription. The impact of fractionization on genetic oscillation was then studied in two early stage models--the Goodwin oscillator and the Rössler oscillator. By constructing a "dual memory" oscillator--the fractional delay Goodwin oscillator, we suggested that four general requirements for generating genetic oscillation should be revised to be negative feedback, sufficient nonlinearity, sufficient memory and proper balancing of timescale. The numerical study of the fractional Rössler oscillator implied that the globally slow transcription tends to lower the chance of a coupled or more complex nonlinear genetic oscillatory system behaving chaotically.

The Rise of China in the International Trade Network: A Community Core Detection Approach

PubMed Central

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995–2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism. PMID:25136895

The rise of China in the International Trade Network: a community core detection approach.

PubMed

Zhu, Zhen; Cerina, Federica; Chessa, Alessandro; Caldarelli, Guido; Riccaboni, Massimo

2014-01-01

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of complex systems ranging from biology to computer science and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. We provide a multilevel description of the evolution of the network where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) and the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members) are related. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a simple dynamic-edge-weight mechanism.

Scrambling and thermalization in a diffusive quantum many-body system

DOE PAGES

Bohrdt, A.; Mendl, C. B.; Endres, M.; ...

2017-06-02

Out-of-time ordered (OTO) correlation functions describe scrambling of information in correlated quantum matter. They are of particular interest in incoherent quantum systems lacking well defined quasi-particles. Thus far, it is largely elusive how OTO correlators spread in incoherent systems with diffusive transport governed by a few globally conserved quantities. Here, we study the dynamical response of such a system using high-performance matrix-product-operator techniques. Specifically, we consider the non-integrable, one-dimensional Bose–Hubbard model in the incoherent high-temperature regime. Our system exhibits diffusive dynamics in time-ordered correlators of globally conserved quantities, whereas OTO correlators display a ballistic, light-cone spreading of quantum information. Themore » slowest process in the global thermalization of the system is thus diffusive, yet information spreading is not inhibited by such slow dynamics. We furthermore develop an experimentally feasible protocol to overcome some challenges faced by existing proposals and to probe time-ordered and OTO correlation functions. As a result, our study opens new avenues for both the theoretical and experimental exploration of thermalization and information scrambling dynamics.« less

Scrambling and thermalization in a diffusive quantum many-body system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bohrdt, A.; Mendl, C. B.; Endres, M.

Out-of-time ordered (OTO) correlation functions describe scrambling of information in correlated quantum matter. They are of particular interest in incoherent quantum systems lacking well defined quasi-particles. Thus far, it is largely elusive how OTO correlators spread in incoherent systems with diffusive transport governed by a few globally conserved quantities. Here, we study the dynamical response of such a system using high-performance matrix-product-operator techniques. Specifically, we consider the non-integrable, one-dimensional Bose–Hubbard model in the incoherent high-temperature regime. Our system exhibits diffusive dynamics in time-ordered correlators of globally conserved quantities, whereas OTO correlators display a ballistic, light-cone spreading of quantum information. Themore » slowest process in the global thermalization of the system is thus diffusive, yet information spreading is not inhibited by such slow dynamics. We furthermore develop an experimentally feasible protocol to overcome some challenges faced by existing proposals and to probe time-ordered and OTO correlation functions. As a result, our study opens new avenues for both the theoretical and experimental exploration of thermalization and information scrambling dynamics.« less

Observations of geographically correlated orbit errors for TOPEX/Poseidon using the global positioning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, E. J.; Haines, B. J.; Mccoll, K. C.; Nerem, R. S.

1994-01-01

We have compared Global Positioning System (GPS)-based dynamic and reduced-dynamic TOPEX/Poseidon orbits over three 10-day repeat cycles of the ground-track. The results suggest that the prelaunch joint gravity model (JGM-1) introduces geographically correlated errors (GCEs) which have a strong meridional dependence. The global distribution and magnitude of these GCEs are consistent with a prelaunch covariance analysis, with estimated and predicted global rms error statistics of 2.3 and 2.4 cm rms, respectively. Repeating the analysis with the post-launch joint gravity model (JGM-2) suggests that a portion of the meridional dependence observed in JGM-1 still remains, with global rms error of 1.2 cm.

Collective intelligence for control of distributed dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolpert, D. H.; Wheeler, K. R.; Tumer, K.

2000-03-01

We consider the El Farol bar problem, also known as the minority game (W. B. Arthur, The American Economic Review, 84 (1994) 406; D. Challet and Y. C. Zhang, Physica A, 256 (1998) 514). We view it as an instance of the general problem of how to configure the nodal elements of a distributed dynamical system so that they do not "work at cross purposes", in that their collective dynamics avoids frustration and thereby achieves a provided global goal. We summarize a mathematical theory for such configuration applicable when (as in the bar problem) the global goal can be expressed as minimizing a global energy function and the nodes can be expressed as minimizers of local free energy functions. We show that a system designed with that theory performs nearly optimally for the bar problem.

The READY program: Building a global potential energy surface and reactive dynamic simulations for the hydrogen combustion.

PubMed

Mogo, César; Brandão, João

2014-06-30

READY (REActive DYnamics) is a program for studying reactive dynamic systems using a global potential energy surface (PES) built from previously existing PESs corresponding to each of the most important elementary reactions present in the system. We present an application to the combustion dynamics of a mixture of hydrogen and oxygen using accurate PESs for all the systems involving up to four oxygen and hydrogen atoms. Results at the temperature of 4000 K and pressure of 2 atm are presented and compared with model based on rate constants. Drawbacks and advantages of this approach are discussed and future directions of research are pointed out. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Pheromone Static Routing Strategy for Complex Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Mao-Bin; Henry, Y. K. Lau; Ling, Xiang; Jiang, Rui

2012-12-01

We adopt the concept of using pheromones to generate a set of static paths that can reach the performance of global dynamic routing strategy [Phys. Rev. E 81 (2010) 016113]. The path generation method consists of two stages. In the first stage, a pheromone is dropped to the nodes by packets forwarded according to the global dynamic routing strategy. In the second stage, pheromone static paths are generated according to the pheromone density. The output paths can greatly improve traffic systems' overall capacity on different network structures, including scale-free networks, small-world networks and random graphs. Because the paths are static, the system needs much less computational resources than the global dynamic routing strategy.

Next Generation Community Based Unified Global Modeling System Development and Operational Implementation Strategies at NCEP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tallapragada, V.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) has provided the unique opportunity to develop and implement a non-hydrostatic global model based on Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Finite Volume Cubed Sphere (FV3) Dynamic Core at National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), making a leap-step advancement in seamless prediction capabilities across all spatial and temporal scales. Model development efforts are centralized with unified model development in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) infrastructure based on Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). A more sophisticated coupling among various earth system components is being enabled within NEMS following National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) standards. The eventual goal of unifying global and regional models will enable operational global models operating at convective resolving scales. Apart from the advanced non-hydrostatic dynamic core and coupling to various earth system components, advanced physics and data assimilation techniques are essential for improved forecast skill. NGGPS is spearheading ambitious physics and data assimilation strategies, concentrating on creation of a Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) and Joint Effort for Data Assimilation Integration (JEDI). Both initiatives are expected to be community developed, with emphasis on research transitioning to operations (R2O). The unified modeling system is being built to support the needs of both operations and research. Different layers of community partners are also established with specific roles/responsibilities for researchers, core development partners, trusted super-users, and operations. Stakeholders are engaged at all stages to help drive the direction of development, resources allocations and prioritization. This talk presents the current and future plans of unified model development at NCEP for weather, sub-seasonal, and seasonal climate prediction applications with special emphasis on implementation of NCEP FV3 Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) into operations by 2019.

Multiscale System for Environmentally-Driven Infectious Disease with Threshold Control Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaodan; Xiao, Yanni

A multiscale system for environmentally-driven infectious disease is proposed, in which control measures at three different scales are implemented when the number of infected hosts exceeds a certain threshold. Our coupled model successfully describes the feedback mechanisms of between-host dynamics on within-host dynamics by employing one-scale variable guided enhancement of interventions on other scales. The modeling approach provides a novel idea of how to link the large-scale dynamics to small-scale dynamics. The dynamic behaviors of the multiscale system on two time-scales, i.e. fast system and slow system, are investigated. The slow system is further simplified to a two-dimensional Filippov system. For the Filippov system, we study the dynamics of its two subsystems (i.e. free-system and control-system), the sliding mode dynamics, the boundary equilibrium bifurcations, as well as the global behaviors. We prove that both subsystems may undergo backward bifurcations and the sliding domain exists. Meanwhile, it is possible that the pseudo-equilibrium exists and is globally stable, or the pseudo-equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium and the real equilibrium are tri-stable, or the pseudo-equilibrium and the real equilibrium are bi-stable, or the pseudo-equilibrium and disease-free equilibrium are bi-stable, which depends on the threshold value and other parameter values. The global stability of the pseudo-equilibrium reveals that we may maintain the number of infected hosts at a previously given value. Moreover, the bi-stability and tri-stability indicate that whether the number of infected individuals tends to zero or a previously given value or other positive values depends on the parameter values and the initial states of the system. These results highlight the challenges in the control of environmentally-driven infectious disease.

Global Stability and Dynamics of Strongly Nonlinear Systems Using Koopman Operator Theory

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

calculus, applied mathematics, Director’s Research Initiative 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT UU 18... research of Svenkeson et al.4 Section 2 is Accomplishments and Section 3 is the Conclusion. 2. Accomplishments 2.1 Prescribed External Forcing To study ...ARL-TR-7959 MAR 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Global Stability and Dynamics of Strongly Nonlinear Systems Using Koopman

The changing global carbon cycle: Linking plant-soil carbon dynamics to global consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chapin, F. S.; McFarland, J.; McGuire, David A.; Euskirchen, E.S.; Ruess, Roger W.; Kielland, K.

2009-01-01

Synthesis. Current climate systems models that include only NPP and HR are inadequate under conditions of rapid change. Many of the recent advances in biogeochemical understanding are sufficiently mature to substantially improve representation of ecosystem C dynamics in these models.

Rethinking pattern formation in reaction-diffusion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halatek, J.; Frey, E.

2018-05-01

The present theoretical framework for the analysis of pattern formation in complex systems is mostly limited to the vicinity of fixed (global) equilibria. Here we present a new theoretical approach to characterize dynamical states arbitrarily far from (global) equilibrium. We show that reaction-diffusion systems that are driven by locally mass-conserving interactions can be understood in terms of local equilibria of diffusively coupled compartments. Diffusive coupling generically induces lateral redistribution of the globally conserved quantities, and the variable local amounts of these quantities determine the local equilibria in each compartment. We find that, even far from global equilibrium, the system is well characterized by its moving local equilibria. We apply this framework to in vitro Min protein pattern formation, a paradigmatic model for biological pattern formation. Within our framework we can predict and explain transitions between chemical turbulence and order arbitrarily far from global equilibrium. Our results reveal conceptually new principles of self-organized pattern formation that may well govern diverse dynamical systems.

The topology of non-linear global carbon dynamics: from tipping points to planetary boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderies, J. M.; Carpenter, S. R.; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan

2013-12-01

We present a minimal model of land use and carbon cycle dynamics and use it to explore the relationship between non-linear dynamics and planetary boundaries. Only the most basic interactions between land cover and terrestrial, atmospheric, and marine carbon stocks are considered in the model. Our goal is not to predict global carbon dynamics as it occurs in the actual Earth System. Rather, we construct a conceptually reasonable heuristic model of a feedback system between different carbon stocks that captures the qualitative features of the actual Earth System and use it to explore the topology of the boundaries of what can be called a ‘safe operating space’ for humans. The model analysis illustrates the existence of dynamic, non-linear tipping points in carbon cycle dynamics and the potential complexity of planetary boundaries. Finally, we use the model to illustrate some challenges associated with navigating planetary boundaries.

Global robust output regulation control for cascaded nonlinear systems using the internal model principle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jiang-Bo; Zhao, Yan; Wu, Yu-Qiang

2014-04-01

This article considers the global robust output regulation problem via output feedback for a class of cascaded nonlinear systems with input-to-state stable inverse dynamics. The system uncertainties depend not only on the measured output but also all the unmeasurable states. By introducing an internal model, the output regulation problem is converted into a stabilisation problem for an appropriately augmented system. The designed dynamic controller could achieve the global asymptotic tracking control for a class of time-varying reference signals for the system output while keeping all other closed-loop signals bounded. It is of interest to note that the developed control approach can be applied to the speed tracking control of the fan speed control system. The simulation results demonstrate its effectiveness.

Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Worley, B. A. (Editor); Peslen, C. A. (Editor)

1984-01-01

Global modeling; satellite data assimilation and initialization; simulation of future observing systems; model and observed energetics; dynamics of planetary waves; First Global Atmospheric Research Program Global Experiment (FGGE) diagnosis studies; and National Research Council Research Associateship Program are discussed.

Nondynamic Tracking Using The Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunck, T. P.; Wu, Sien-Chong

1988-01-01

Report describes technique for using Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine position of low Earth orbiter without need for dynamic models. Differential observing strategy requires GPS receiver on user vehicle and network of six ground receivers. Computationally efficient technique delivers decimeter accuracy on orbits down to lowest altitudes. New technique nondynamic long-arc strategy having potential for accuracy of best dynamic techniques while retaining much of computational simplicity of geometric techniques.

Understanding system dynamics of an adaptive enzyme network from globally profiled kinetic parameters.

PubMed

Chiang, Austin W T; Liu, Wei-Chung; Charusanti, Pep; Hwang, Ming-Jing

2014-01-15

A major challenge in mathematical modeling of biological systems is to determine how model parameters contribute to systems dynamics. As biological processes are often complex in nature, it is desirable to address this issue using a systematic approach. Here, we propose a simple methodology that first performs an enrichment test to find patterns in the values of globally profiled kinetic parameters with which a model can produce the required system dynamics; this is then followed by a statistical test to elucidate the association between individual parameters and different parts of the system's dynamics. We demonstrate our methodology on a prototype biological system of perfect adaptation dynamics, namely the chemotaxis model for Escherichia coli. Our results agreed well with those derived from experimental data and theoretical studies in the literature. Using this model system, we showed that there are motifs in kinetic parameters and that these motifs are governed by constraints of the specified system dynamics. A systematic approach based on enrichment statistical tests has been developed to elucidate the relationships between model parameters and the roles they play in affecting system dynamics of a prototype biological network. The proposed approach is generally applicable and therefore can find wide use in systems biology modeling research.

Dynamics of the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yongchang; Yang, Qigui

2018-06-01

This paper is devoted to discern long time dynamics through the stochastic low concentration trimolecular oscillatory chemical system with jumps. By Lyapunov technique, this system is proved to have a unique global positive solution, and the asymptotic stability in mean square of such model is further established. Moreover, the existence of random attractor and Lyapunov exponents are obtained for the stochastic homeomorphism flow generated by the corresponding global positive solution. And some numerical simulations are given to illustrate the presented results.

Understanding global health governance as a complex adaptive system.

PubMed

Hill, Peter S

2011-01-01

The transition from international to global health reflects the rapid growth in the numbers and nature of stakeholders in health, as well as the constant change embodied in the process of globalisation itself. This paper argues that global health governance shares the characteristics of complex adaptive systems, with its multiple and diverse players, and their polyvalent and constantly evolving relationships, and rich and dynamic interactions. The sheer quantum of initiatives, the multiple networks through which stakeholders (re)configure their influence, the range of contexts in which development for health is played out - all compound the complexity of this system. This paper maps out the characteristics of complex adaptive systems as they apply to global health governance, linking them to developments in the past two decades, and the multiple responses to these changes. Examining global health governance through the frame of complexity theory offers insight into the current dynamics of governance, and while providing a framework for making meaning of the whole, opens up ways of accessing this complexity through local points of engagement.

Precise tracking of remote sensing satellites with the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunck, Thomas P.; Wu, Sien-Chong; Wu, Jiun-Tsong; Thornton, Catherine L.

1990-01-01

The Global Positioning System (GPS) can be applied in a number of ways to track remote sensing satellites at altitudes below 3000 km with accuracies of better than 10 cm. All techniques use a precise global network of GPS ground receivers operating in concert with a receiver aboard the user satellite, and all estimate the user orbit, GPS orbits, and selected ground locations simultaneously. The GPS orbit solutions are always dynamic, relying on the laws of motion, while the user orbit solution can range from purely dynamic to purely kinematic (geometric). Two variations show considerable promise. The first one features an optimal synthesis of dynamics and kinematics in the user solution, while the second introduces a novel gravity model adjustment technique to exploit data from repeat ground tracks. These techniques, to be demonstrated on the Topex/Poseidon mission in 1992, will offer subdecimeter tracking accuracy for dynamically unpredictable satellites down to the lowest orbital altitudes.

Global dynamics of a delay differential equation with spatial non-locality in an unbounded domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Taishan; Zou, Xingfu

In this paper, we study the global dynamics of a class of differential equations with temporal delay and spatial non-locality in an unbounded domain. Adopting the compact open topology, we describe the delicate asymptotic properties of the nonlocal delayed effect and establish some a priori estimate for nontrivial solutions which enables us to show the permanence of the equation. Combining these results with a dynamical systems approach, we determine the global dynamics of the equation under appropriate conditions. Applying the main results to the model with Ricker's birth function and Mackey-Glass's hematopoiesis function, we obtain threshold results for the global dynamics of these two models. We explain why our results on the global attractivity of the positive equilibrium in C∖{0} under the compact open topology becomes invalid in C∖{0} with respect to the usual supremum norm, and we identify a subset of C∖{0} in which the positive equilibrium remains attractive with respect to the supremum norm.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics.

PubMed

Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

2012-12-01

We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

Combinatorial-topological framework for the analysis of global dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Justin; Gameiro, Marcio; Harker, Shaun; Kokubu, Hiroshi; Mischaikow, Konstantin; Obayashi, Ippei; Pilarczyk, Paweł

2012-12-01

We discuss an algorithmic framework based on efficient graph algorithms and algebraic-topological computational tools. The framework is aimed at automatic computation of a database of global dynamics of a given m-parameter semidynamical system with discrete time on a bounded subset of the n-dimensional phase space. We introduce the mathematical background, which is based upon Conley's topological approach to dynamics, describe the algorithms for the analysis of the dynamics using rectangular grids both in phase space and parameter space, and show two sample applications.

Neocortical dynamics due to axon propagation delays in cortico-cortical fibers: EEG traveling and standing waves with implications for top-down influences on local networks and white matter disease

PubMed Central

Nunez, Paul L.; Srinivasan, Ramesh

2013-01-01

The brain is treated as a nested hierarchical complex system with substantial interactions across spatial scales. Local networks are pictured as embedded within global fields of synaptic action and action potentials. Global fields may act top-down on multiple networks, acting to bind remote networks. Because of scale-dependent properties, experimental electrophysiology requires both local and global models that match observational scales. Multiple local alpha rhythms are embedded in a global alpha rhythm. Global models are outlined in which cm-scale dynamic behaviors result largely from propagation delays in cortico-cortical axons and cortical background excitation level, controlled by neuromodulators on long time scales. The idealized global models ignore the bottom-up influences of local networks on global fields so as to employ relatively simple mathematics. The resulting models are transparently related to several EEG and steady state visually evoked potentials correlated with cognitive states, including estimates of neocortical coherence structure, traveling waves, and standing waves. The global models suggest that global oscillatory behavior of self-sustained (limit-cycle) modes lower than about 20 Hz may easily occur in neocortical/white matter systems provided: Background cortical excitability is sufficiently high; the strength of long cortico-cortical axon systems is sufficiently high; and the bottom-up influence of local networks on the global dynamic field is sufficiently weak. The global models provide "entry points" to more detailed studies of global top-down influences, including binding of weakly connected networks, modulation of gamma oscillations by theta or alpha rhythms, and the effects of white matter deficits. PMID:24505628

Is Earth F**ked? Dynamical Futility of Global Environmental Management and Possibilities for Sustainability via Direct Action Activism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

wErnEr, B.

2012-12-01

Environmental challenges are dynamically generated within the dominant global culture principally by the mismatch between short-time-scale market and political forces driving resource extraction/use and longer-time-scale accommodations of the Earth system to these changes. Increasing resource demand is leading to the development of two-way, nonlinear interactions between human societies and environmental systems that are becoming global in extent, either through globalized markets and other institutions or through coupling to global environmental systems such as climate. These trends are further intensified by dissipation-reducing technological advances in transactions, communication and transport, which suppress emergence of longer-time-scale economic and political levels of description and facilitate long-distance connections, and by predictive environmental modeling, which strengthens human connections to a short-time-scale virtual Earth, and weakens connections to the longer time scales of the actual Earth. Environmental management seeks to steer fast scale economic and political interests of a coupled human-environmental system towards longer-time-scale consideration of benefits and costs by operating within the confines of the dominant culture using a linear, engineering-type connection to the system. Perhaps as evidenced by widespread inability to meaningfully address such global environmental challenges as climate change and soil degradation, nonlinear connections reduce the ability of managers to operate outside coupled human-environmental systems, decreasing their effectiveness in steering towards sustainable interactions and resulting in managers slaved to short-to-intermediate-term interests. In sum, the dynamics of the global coupled human-environmental system within the dominant culture precludes management for stable, sustainable pathways and promotes instability. Environmental direct action, resistance taken from outside the dominant culture, as in protests, blockades and sabotage by indigenous peoples, workers, anarchists and other activist groups, increases dissipation within the coupled system over fast to intermediate scales and pushes for changes in the dominant culture that favor transition to a stable, sustainable attractor. These dynamical relationships are illustrated and explored using a numerical model that simulates the short-, intermediate- and long-time-scale dynamics of the coupled human-environmental system. At fast scales, economic and political interests exploit environmental resources through a maze of environmental management and resistance, guided by virtual Earth predictions. At intermediate scales, managers become slaved to economic and political interests, which adapt to and repress resistance, and resistance is guided by patterns of environmental destruction. At slow scales, resistance interacts with the cultural context, which co-evolves with the environment. The transition from unstable dynamics to sustainability is sensitively dependent on the level of participation in and repression of resistance. Because of their differing impact inside and outside the dominant culture, virtual Earth predictions can either promote or oppose sustainability. Supported by the National Science Foundation, Geomorphology and Land Use Dynamics Program.

Heterogeneous delivering capability promotes traffic efficiency in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yan-Bo; Guan, Xiang-Min; Zhang, Xue-Jun

2015-12-01

Traffic is one of the most fundamental dynamical processes in networked systems. With the homogeneous delivery capability of nodes, the global dynamic routing strategy proposed by Ling et al. [Phys. Rev. E81, 016113 (2010)] adequately uses the dynamic information during the process and thus it can reach a quite high network capacity. In this paper, based on the global dynamic routing strategy, we proposed a heterogeneous delivery allocation strategy of nodes on scale-free networks with consideration of nodes degree. It is found that the network capacity as well as some other indexes reflecting transportation efficiency are further improved. Our work may be useful for the design of more efficient routing strategies in communication or transportation systems.

Thermalization dynamics in a quenched many-body state

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Adam; Preiss, Philipp; Tai, Eric; Lukin, Alex; Rispoli, Matthew; Schittko, Robert; Greiner, Markus

2016-05-01

Quantum and classical many-body systems appear to have disparate behavior due to the different mechanisms that govern their evolution. The dynamics of a classical many-body system equilibrate to maximally entropic states and quickly re-thermalize when perturbed. The assumptions of ergodicity and unbiased configurations lead to a successful framework of describing classical systems by a sampling of thermal ensembles that are blind to the system's microscopic details. By contrast, an isolated quantum many-body system is governed by unitary evolution: the system retains memory of past dynamics and constant global entropy. However, even with differing characteristics, the long-term behavior for local observables in quenched, non-integrable quantum systems are often well described by the same thermal framework. We explore the onset of this convergence in a many-body system of bosonic atoms in an optical lattice. Our system's finite size allows us to verify full state purity and measure local observables. We observe rapid growth and saturation of the entanglement entropy with constant global purity. The combination of global purity and thermalized local observables agree with the Eigenstate Thermalization Hypothesis in the presence of a near-volume law in the entanglement entropy.

Power-law Growth and Punctuated Equilibrium Dynamics in Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parolari, A.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

The global rise in population-driven water scarcity and recent appreciation of strong dynamic coupling between human and natural systems has called for new approaches to predict the future sustainability of regional and global water resources systems. The dynamics of coupled human-water systems are driven by a complex set of social, environmental, and technological factors. Present projections of water resources systems range from a finite carrying capacity regulated by accessible freshwater, or `peak renewable water,' to punctuated evolution with new supplied and improved efficiency gained from technological and social innovation. However, these projections have yet to be quantified from observations or in a comprehensive theoretical framework. Using data on global water withdrawals and storage capacity of regional water supply systems, non-trivial dynamics are identified in water resources systems development over time, including power-law growth and punctuated equilibria. Two models are introduced to explain this behavior: (1) a delay differential equation and (2) a power-law with log-periodic oscillations, both of which rely on past conditions (or system memory) to describe the present rate of growth in the system. In addition, extension of the first model demonstrates how system delays and punctuated equilibria can emerge from coupling between human population growth and associated resource demands. Lastly, anecdotal evidence is used to demonstrate the likelihood of power-law growth in global water use from the agricultural revolution 3000 BC to the present. In a practical sense, the presence of these patterns in models with delayed oscillations suggests that current decision-making related to water resources development results from the historical accumulation of resource use decisions, technological and social changes, and their consequences.

The Representation of Tropical Cyclones Within the Global William Putman Non-Hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at Cloud-Permitting Resolutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-S), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-S from irs standard 72-level 27-km resolution (approx.5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (approx. 3.6 billion cells).

Global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control for a quadrotor UAV.

PubMed

Xiong, Jing-Jing; Zhang, Guo-Bao

2017-01-01

A control method based on global fast dynamic terminal sliding mode control (TSMC) technique is proposed to design the flight controller for performing the finite-time position and attitude tracking control of a small quadrotor UAV. Firstly, the dynamic model of the quadrotor is divided into two subsystems, i.e., a fully actuated subsystem and an underactuated subsystem. Secondly, the dynamic flight controllers of the quadrotor are formulated based on global fast dynamic TSMC, which is able to guarantee that the position and velocity tracking errors of all system state variables converge to zero in finite-time. Moreover, the global fast dynamic TSMC is also able to eliminate the chattering phenomenon caused by the switching control action and realize the high precision performance. In addition, the stabilities of two subsystems are demonstrated by Lyapunov theory, respectively. Lastly, the simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed control method in the presence of external disturbances. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global attractors and extinction dynamics of cyclically competing species.

PubMed

Rulands, Steffen; Zielinski, Alejandro; Frey, Erwin

2013-05-01

Transitions to absorbing states are of fundamental importance in nonequilibrium physics as well as ecology. In ecology, absorbing states correspond to the extinction of species. We here study the spatial population dynamics of three cyclically interacting species. The interaction scheme comprises both direct competition between species as in the cyclic Lotka-Volterra model, and separated selection and reproduction processes as in the May-Leonard model. We show that the dynamic processes leading to the transient maintenance of biodiversity are closely linked to attractors of the nonlinear dynamics for the overall species' concentrations. The characteristics of these global attractors change qualitatively at certain threshold values of the mobility and depend on the relative strength of the different types of competition between species. They give information about the scaling of extinction times with the system size and thereby the stability of biodiversity. We define an effective free energy as the negative logarithm of the probability to find the system in a specific global state before reaching one of the absorbing states. The global attractors then correspond to minima of this effective energy landscape and determine the most probable values for the species' global concentrations. As in equilibrium thermodynamics, qualitative changes in the effective free energy landscape indicate and characterize the underlying nonequilibrium phase transitions. We provide the complete phase diagrams for the population dynamics and give a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics and routes to extinction in the respective phases.

Making Sense of Dynamic Systems: How Our Understanding of Stocks and Flows Depends on a Global Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischer, Helen; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2016-01-01

Stocks and flows (SF) are building blocks of dynamic systems: Stocks change through inflows and outflows, such as our bank balance changing with withdrawals and deposits, or atmospheric CO[subscript 2] with absorptions and emissions. However, people make systematic errors when trying to infer the behavior of dynamic systems, termed SF failure,…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Pavel V., E-mail: pvm@ispms.tsc.ru

An evolutionary approach to earthquake development is proposed. A medium under loading is treated as a multiscale nonlinear dynamic system. Its failure involves a number of stages typical of any dynamic system: dynamic chaos, self-organized criticality, and global stability loss in the final stage of its evolution. In the latter stage, the system evolves in a blow-up mode accompanied by catastrophic superfast movements of the elements of this geomedium.

Global Status, Intra-Institutional Stratification and Organizational Segmentation: A Time-Dynamic Tobit Analysis of ARWU Position among U.S. Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cantwell, Brendan; Taylor, Barrett J.

2013-01-01

Ranking systems such as "The Times Higher Education's World University Rankings" and Shanghai Jiao Tong University's "Academic Rankings of World Universities" simultaneously mark global status and stimulate global academic competition. As international ranking systems have become more prominent, researchers have begun to examine whether global…

Nonlinear dynamics and damage induced properties of soft matter with application in oncology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naimark, O.

2017-09-01

Molecular-morphological signs of oncogenesis could be linked to multiscale collective effects in molecular, cell and tissue related to defects (damage) dynamics. It was shown that nonlinear behavior of biological systems can be linked to the existence of characteristic collective open state modes providing the coherent expression dynamics. New type of criticality in nonequilibrium systems with defects—structural-scaling transition allows the definition of the `driving force' for a biological soft matter related to consolidated open states. The set of collective open states (breathers, autosolitons and blow-up modes) in the molecular ensembles provides the collective expression dynamics to attract the entire system (cell, tissue) toward a few preferred global states. The co-existence of three types of collective modes determines the multifractal scenario of biological soft matter dynamics. The appearance of `globally convergent' dynamics corresponding to the coherent behavior of multiscale blow-up open states (blow-up gene expression) leads to anomalous localized softening (blow-up localized damage) and the subjection of the cells (or tissue) to monofractal dynamics. This dynamics can be associated with cancer progression.

Rich Global Dynamics in a Prey-Predator Model with Allee Effect and Density Dependent Death Rate of Predator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Moitri; Banerjee, Malay

In this work we have considered a prey-predator model with strong Allee effect in the prey growth function, Holling type-II functional response and density dependent death rate for predators. It presents a comprehensive study of the complete global dynamics for the considered system. Especially to see the effect of the density dependent death rate of predator on the system behavior, we have presented the two parametric bifurcation diagrams taking it as one of the bifurcation parameters. In course of that we have explored all possible local and global bifurcations that the system could undergo, namely the existence of transcritical bifurcation, saddle node bifurcation, cusp bifurcation, Hopf-bifurcation, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation and Bautin bifurcation respectively.

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Predictive models of forest dynamics.

PubMed

Purves, Drew; Pacala, Stephen

2008-06-13

Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) have shown that forest dynamics could dramatically alter the response of the global climate system to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide over the next century. But there is little agreement between different DGVMs, making forest dynamics one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in predicting future climate. DGVM predictions could be strengthened by integrating the ecological realities of biodiversity and height-structured competition for light, facilitated by recent advances in the mathematics of forest modeling, ecological understanding of diverse forest communities, and the availability of forest inventory data.

Enhancing Autonomy of Aerial Systems Via Integration of Visual Sensors into Their Avionics Suite

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

aerial platform for subsequent visual sensor integration. 14. SUBJECT TERMS autonomous system, quadrotors, direct method, inverse ...CONTROLLER ARCHITECTURE .....................................................43 B. INVERSE DYNAMICS IN THE VIRTUAL DOMAIN ......................45 1...control station GPS Global-Positioning System IDVD inverse dynamics in the virtual domain ILP integer linear program INS inertial-navigation system

Dynamical analysis of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hebai; Chen, Xingwu

2015-10-01

In this paper we investigate the dynamical behaviour of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters. After analysing the qualitative properties of all the equilibria and judging the existences of limit cycles and homoclinic loops for the whole parameter plane, we give the bifurcation diagram and phase portraits. Phase portraits are global if there exist limit cycles and local otherwise. We prove that parameters lie in a connected region, not just on a curve, usually in the parameter plane when the system has one homoclinic loop. Moreover, for global parameters we give a positive answer to conjecture 3.2 of (1998 Nonlinearity 11 1505-19) in the case of exactly two equilibria about the existence of some function whose graph is exactly the surface of double limit cycles. Supported by NSFC 11471228, 11172246 and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Innovative Technics of Managing Engineers’ Global Competencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoreshok, A. A.; Zhironkin, S. A.; Tyulenev, M. A.; Barysheva, G. A.; Blumenstein, V. Yu; Hellmer, M. C.; Potyagailov, S. V.

2016-08-01

Higher education modernization in the CIS countries takes place under the conditions of dynamic changes in economy and society. These changes are determined by the social and economic development of the country and the world globalization processes - cross-border intercultural communication, knowledge transparency, and the establishment of information society. Educational globalization is a continuous process of creating a unified global educational system, in which the distinctions between its member educational systems are being blended.

Global dynamics of a nonlocal delayed reaction-diffusion equation on a half plane

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Wenjie; Duan, Yueliang

2018-04-01

We consider a delayed reaction-diffusion equation with spatial nonlocality on a half plane that describes population dynamics of a two-stage species living in a semi-infinite environment. A Neumann boundary condition is imposed accounting for an isolated domain. To describe the global dynamics, we first establish some a priori estimate for nontrivial solutions after investigating asymptotic properties of the nonlocal delayed effect and the diffusion operator, which enables us to show the permanence of the equation with respect to the compact open topology. We then employ standard dynamical system arguments to establish the global attractivity of the nontrivial equilibrium. The main results are illustrated by the diffusive Nicholson's blowfly equation and the diffusive Mackey-Glass equation.

Response of the coupled M-I-T system to the March 17, 2015 solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Slavin, J. A.; Ridley, A. J.

2017-12-01

When the solar wind dynamic pressure is enhanced, it could perturb the global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (M-I-T) system. The most notable indicators of such disruptions are changes in Field-Aligned Currents (FACs), ionospheric convection patterns and magnetic perturbations observed by ground magnetometers. The link between dynamic pressure enhancements and FACs has been well established, but studies on how these FACs affect the ionosphere-thermosphere system are very limited. In order to understand the large-scale dynamic processes in the M-I-T system due to the solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement, we study the 17 March 2015 event in detail. This is one of the most geoeffective events of the solar cycle 24 with Dst minimum of -222 nT. The Wind spacecraft recorded a two-step increment in the solar wind dynamic pressure, from 2 nPa to 12 nPa within 3 minutes, while the IMF Bz stayed northward. We used the University of Michigan Block Adaptive Tree Solarwind Roe Upwind Scheme (BATS'R'US), global MHD code to study the generation and propagation of perturbations associated with the compression of the magnetosphere. To effectively represent the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system, we included the Global Magnetosphere (GM), Inner Magnetosphere (IM) and Ionospheric electrodynamic (IE) modules. 600 uniformly distributed virtual magnetometers are included in the simulation to identify the magnetic perturbations associated with the FAC pairs as well as their temporal and spatial variations. In addition, we used the IE module output to drive the University of Michigan Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) to study how the I-T system responds to dynamic pressure enhancement. We show that as a result of the solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement, two pair of perturbation FACs develop in addition to the NBZ current system. These FACs significantly alter the ionospheric convection profile and create elongated vortices that propagate from dayside to nightside. The ion temperature at the location of these vortices is significantly and immediately enhanced. We analyzed the altitude profiles of plasma temperature, electron density and joule heating to quantitatively understand energy deposition during this process, and compare them with observations from ground-based incoherent scatter radar.

A recurrence network approach for the analysis of skin blood flow dynamics in response to loading pressure.

PubMed

Liao, Fuyuan; Jan, Yih-Kuen

2012-06-01

This paper presents a recurrence network approach for the analysis of skin blood flow dynamics in response to loading pressure. Recurrence is a fundamental property of many dynamical systems, which can be explored in phase spaces constructed from observational time series. A visualization tool of recurrence analysis called recurrence plot (RP) has been proved to be highly effective to detect transitions in the dynamics of the system. However, it was found that delay embedding can produce spurious structures in RPs. Network-based concepts have been applied for the analysis of nonlinear time series recently. We demonstrate that time series with different types of dynamics exhibit distinct global clustering coefficients and distributions of local clustering coefficients and that the global clustering coefficient is robust to the embedding parameters. We applied the approach to study skin blood flow oscillations (BFO) response to loading pressure. The results showed that global clustering coefficients of BFO significantly decreased in response to loading pressure (p<0.01). Moreover, surrogate tests indicated that such a decrease was associated with a loss of nonlinearity of BFO. Our results suggest that the recurrence network approach can practically quantify the nonlinear dynamics of BFO.

Dynamic Positioning at Sea Using the Global Positioning System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

the Global Positioning System (GPS) acquired in Phase II of the Seafloor Benchmark Experiment on R/V Point Sur in August 1986. CPS position...data from the Global Positioning System (GPS) acquired in Phase 11 of the Seafloor Benchmark Experiment on R,:V Point Sur in August 1986. GPS position...The Seafloor Benchmark Experiment, a project of the Hydrographic Sciences Group of the Oceanography Department at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and earth system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Taiping; Verbitsky, Mikhail; Saltzman, Barry; Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey; Lall, Upmanu

1995-01-01

During the grant period, the authors continued ongoing studies aimed at enhancing their understanding of the operation of the atmosphere as a complex nonlinear system interacting with the hydrosphere, biosphere, and cryosphere in response to external radiative forcing. Five papers were completed with support from the grant, representing contributions in three main areas of study: (1) theoretical studies of the interactive atmospheric response to changed biospheric boundary conditions measurable from satellites; (2) statistical-observational studies of global-scale temperature variability on interannual to century time scales; and (3) dynamics of long-term earth system changes associated with ice sheet surges.

Dynamic load balancing of applications

DOEpatents

Wheat, Stephen R.

1997-01-01

An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated.

Switch of Sensitivity Dynamics Revealed with DyGloSA Toolbox for Dynamical Global Sensitivity Analysis as an Early Warning for System's Critical Transition

PubMed Central

Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

2013-01-01

Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA – a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits. PMID:24367574

Switch of sensitivity dynamics revealed with DyGloSA toolbox for dynamical global sensitivity analysis as an early warning for system's critical transition.

PubMed

Baumuratova, Tatiana; Dobre, Simona; Bastogne, Thierry; Sauter, Thomas

2013-01-01

Systems with bifurcations may experience abrupt irreversible and often unwanted shifts in their performance, called critical transitions. For many systems like climate, economy, ecosystems it is highly desirable to identify indicators serving as early warnings of such regime shifts. Several statistical measures were recently proposed as early warnings of critical transitions including increased variance, autocorrelation and skewness of experimental or model-generated data. The lack of automatized tool for model-based prediction of critical transitions led to designing DyGloSA - a MATLAB toolbox for dynamical global parameter sensitivity analysis (GPSA) of ordinary differential equations models. We suggest that the switch in dynamics of parameter sensitivities revealed by our toolbox is an early warning that a system is approaching a critical transition. We illustrate the efficiency of our toolbox by analyzing several models with bifurcations and predicting the time periods when systems can still avoid going to a critical transition by manipulating certain parameter values, which is not detectable with the existing SA techniques. DyGloSA is based on the SBToolbox2 and contains functions, which compute dynamically the global sensitivity indices of the system by applying four main GPSA methods: eFAST, Sobol's ANOVA, PRCC and WALS. It includes parallelized versions of the functions enabling significant reduction of the computational time (up to 12 times). DyGloSA is freely available as a set of MATLAB scripts at http://bio.uni.lu/systems_biology/software/dyglosa. It requires installation of MATLAB (versions R2008b or later) and the Systems Biology Toolbox2 available at www.sbtoolbox2.org. DyGloSA can be run on Windows and Linux systems, -32 and -64 bits.

Predictive Multiple Model Switching Control with the Self-Organizing Map

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motter, Mark A.

2000-01-01

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed by extension of self-organizing map (SOM) local dynamic modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems to a control framework. Multiple SOMs collectively model the global response of a nonautonomous system to a finite set of representative prototype controls. Each SOM provides a codebook representation of the dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the global minimization of a similarity metric. The SOM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme that selects the best available model for the applied control. SOM based linear models are used to predict the response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal.

Characterizing Middle Atmospheric Dynamical Variability and its Impact on the Thermosphere/Ionosphere System During Recent Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCormack, J. P.; Sassi, F.; Hoppel, K.; Ma, J.; Eckermann, S. D.

2015-12-01

We investigate the evolution of neutral atmospheric dynamics in the 10-100 km altitude range before, during, and after recent stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) using a prototype high-altitude version of the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM), which combines a 4-dimensional variational (4DVAR) data assimilation system with a 3-time-level semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit global forecast model. In addition to assimilating conventional meteorological observations, NAVGEM also assimilates middle atmospheric temperature and constituent observations from both operational and research satellite platforms to provide global synoptic meteorological analyses of winds, temperatures, ozone, and water vapor from the surface to ~90 km. In this study, NAVGEM analyses are used to diagnose the spatial and temporal evolution of the main dynamical drivers in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) before, during, and after specific SSW events during the 2009-2013 period when large disturbances were observed in the thermosphere/ionosphere (TI) region. Preliminary findings show strong modulation of the semidiurnal tide in the MLT during the onset of an SSW. To assess the impact of the neutral atmosphere dynamical variability on the TI system, NAVGEM analyses are used to constrain simulations of select SSW events using the specified dynamics (SD) configuration of the extended Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM-X).

Optimal interdependence enhances the dynamical robustness of complex systems.

PubMed

Singh, Rishu Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

2017-08-01

Although interdependent systems have usually been associated with increased fragility, we show that strengthening the interdependence between dynamical processes on different networks can make them more likely to survive over long times. By coupling the dynamics of networks that in isolation exhibit catastrophic collapse with extinction of nodal activity, we demonstrate system-wide persistence of activity for an optimal range of interdependence between the networks. This is related to the appearance of attractors of the global dynamics comprising disjoint sets ("islands") of stable activity.

Optimal interdependence enhances the dynamical robustness of complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rishu Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra

2017-08-01

Although interdependent systems have usually been associated with increased fragility, we show that strengthening the interdependence between dynamical processes on different networks can make them more likely to survive over long times. By coupling the dynamics of networks that in isolation exhibit catastrophic collapse with extinction of nodal activity, we demonstrate system-wide persistence of activity for an optimal range of interdependence between the networks. This is related to the appearance of attractors of the global dynamics comprising disjoint sets ("islands") of stable activity.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Combining pressure and temperature control in dynamics on energy landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Karl Heinz; Christian Schön, J.

2017-05-01

Complex systems from science, technology or mathematics usually appear to be very different in their specific dynamical evolution. However, the concept of an energy landscape with its basins corresponding to locally ergodic regions separated by energy barriers provides a unifying approach to the description of complex systems dynamics. In such systems one is often confronted with the task to control the dynamics such that a certain basin is reached with the highest possible probability. Typically one aims for the global minimum, e.g. when dealing with global optimization problems, but frequently other local minima such as the metastable compounds in materials science are of primary interest. Here we show how this task can be solved by applying control theory using magnesium fluoride as an example system, where different modifications of MgF2 are considered as targets. In particular, we generalize previous work restricted to temperature controls only and present controls which simultaneously adjust temperature and pressure in an optimal fashion.

Precise orbit determination for NASA's earth observing system using GPS (Global Positioning System)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, B. G.

1988-01-01

An application of a precision orbit determination technique for NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) using the Global Positioning System (GPS) is described. This technique allows the geometric information from measurements of GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudo-range to be exploited while minimizing requirements for precision dynamical modeling. The method combines geometric and dynamic information to determine the spacecraft trajectory; the weight on the dynamic information is controlled by adjusting fictitious spacecraft accelerations in three dimensions which are treated as first order exponentially time correlated stochastic processes. By varying the time correlation and uncertainty of the stochastic accelerations, the technique can range from purely geometric to purely dynamic. Performance estimates for this technique as applied to the orbit geometry planned for the EOS platforms indicate that decimeter accuracies for EOS orbit position may be obtainable. The sensitivity of the predicted orbit uncertainties to model errors for station locations, nongravitational platform accelerations, and Earth gravity is also presented.

High dynamic range CMOS (HDRC) imagers for safety systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strobel, Markus; Döttling, Dietmar

2013-04-01

The first part of this paper describes the high dynamic range CMOS (HDRC®) imager - a special type of CMOS image sensor with logarithmic response. The powerful property of a high dynamic range (HDR) image acquisition is detailed by mathematical definition and measurement of the optoelectronic conversion function (OECF) of two different HDRC imagers. Specific sensor parameters will be discussed including the pixel design for the global shutter readout. The second part will give an outline on the applications and requirements of cameras for industrial safety. Equipped with HDRC global shutter sensors SafetyEYE® is a high-performance stereo camera system for safe three-dimensional zone monitoring enabling new and more flexible solutions compared to existing safety guards.

Non-dynamic decimeter tracking of earth satellites using the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunck, T. P.; Wu, S. C.

1986-01-01

A technique is described for employing the Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine the position of a low earth orbiter with decimeter accuracy without the need for user dynamic models. A differential observing strategy is used requiring a GPS receiver on the user vehicle and a network of six ground receivers. The technique uses the continuous record of position change obtained from GPS carrier phase to smooth position measurements made with pseudo-range. The result is a computationally efficient technique that can deliver decimeter accuracy down to the lowest altitude orbits.

Dynamic load balancing of applications

DOEpatents

Wheat, S.R.

1997-05-13

An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers is disclosed. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated. 13 figs.

GFDL's unified regional-global weather-climate modeling system with variable resolution capability for severe weather predictions and regional climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2015-12-01

The NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions (e.g., tornado outbreak events and cat-5 hurricanes) and ultra-high-resolution (1-km) regional climate simulations within a consistent global modeling framework. The fundation of this flexible regional-global modeling system is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Weather Review) known in the community as FV3 (finite-volume on the cubed-sphere). Because of its flexability and computational efficiency, the FV3 is one of the final candidates of NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched (single) grid capability, a two-way (regional-global) multiple nested grid capability, and the combination of the stretched and two-way nests, so as to make convection-resolving regional climate simulation within a consistent global modeling system feasible using today's High Performance Computing System. One of our main scientific goals is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornadoes using a global model that was originally designed for century long climate simulations. As a unified weather-climate modeling system, we evaluated the performance of the model with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km to as low as 200 km. In particular, for downscaling studies, we have developed various tests to ensure that the large-scale circulation within the global varaible resolution system is well simulated while at the same time the small-scale can be accurately captured within the targeted high resolution region.

Symmetry analysis for hyperbolic equilibria using a TB/dengue fever model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massoukou, R. Y. M.'Pika; Govinder, K. S.

2016-08-01

We investigate the interplay between Lie symmetry analysis and dynamical systems analysis. As an example, we take a toy model describing the spread of TB and dengue fever. We first undertake a comprehensive dynamical systems analysis including a discussion about local stability. For those regions in which such analyzes cannot be translated to global behavior, we undertake a Lie symmetry analysis. It is shown that the Lie analysis can be useful in providing information for systems where the (local) dynamical systems analysis breaks down.

Laser Pulse Production for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stysley, Paul R.; Coyle, D. Barry; Clarke, Greg B.; Frese, Erich; Blalock, Gordon; Morey, Peter; Kay, Richard B.; Poulios, Demetrios; Hersh, Michael

2016-01-01

The Lasers and Electro-Optics Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center has been tasked with building the Lasers for the Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission, to be installed on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the International Space Station (ISS). GEDI will use three NASA-developed lasers, each coupled with a Beam Dithering Unit (BDU) to produce three sets of staggered footprints on the Earth's surface to accurately measure global biomass. We will report on the design, assembly progress, test results, and delivery process of this laser system.

Laser Pulse Production for NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stysley, Paul R.; Coyle, D. Barry; Clarke, Greg B.; Frese, Erich; Blalock, Gordon; Morey, Peter; Kay, Richard B.; Poulios, Demetrios; Hersh, Michael

2016-01-01

The Lasers and Electro-Optics Branch at Goddard Space Flight Center has been tasked with building the Lasers for the Global Ecosystems Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) Lidar Mission, to be installed on the Japanese Experiment Module (JEM) on the International Space Station (ISS)1. GEDI will use three NASA-developed lasers, each coupled with a Beam Dithering Unit (BDU) to produce three sets of staggered footprints on the Earth's surface to accurately measure global biomass. We will report on the design, assembly progress, test results, and delivery process of this laser system.

Mathematical Modelling of Plankton-Oxygen Dynamics Under the Climate Change.

PubMed

Sekerci, Yadigar; Petrovskii, Sergei

2015-12-01

Ocean dynamics is known to have a strong effect on the global climate change and on the composition of the atmosphere. In particular, it is estimated that about 70% of the atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. However, the rate of oxygen production depends on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. In this paper, we address this issue theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that a sustainable oxygen production is only possible in an intermediate range of the production rate. If, in the course of time, the oxygen production rate becomes too low or too high, the system's dynamics changes abruptly, resulting in the oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. Our results indicate that the depletion of atmospheric oxygen on global scale (which, if happens, obviously can kill most of life on Earth) is another possible catastrophic consequence of the global warming, a global ecological disaster that has been overlooked.

Multiscale Cloud System Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Moncrieff, Mitchell W.

2009-01-01

The central theme of this paper is to describe how cloud system resolving models (CRMs) of grid spacing approximately 1 km have been applied to various important problems in atmospheric science across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and how these applications relate to other modeling approaches. A long-standing problem concerns the representation of organized precipitating convective cloud systems in weather and climate models. Since CRMs resolve the mesoscale to large scales of motion (i.e., 10 km to global) they explicitly address the cloud system problem. By explicitly representing organized convection, CRMs bypass restrictive assumptions associated with convective parameterization such as the scale gap between cumulus and large-scale motion. Dynamical models provide insight into the physical mechanisms involved with scale interaction and convective organization. Multiscale CRMs simulate convective cloud systems in computational domains up to global and have been applied in place of contemporary convective parameterizations in global models. Multiscale CRMs pose a new challenge for model validation, which is met in an integrated approach involving CRMs, operational prediction systems, observational measurements, and dynamical models in a new international project: the Year of Tropical Convection, which has an emphasis on organized tropical convection and its global effects.

Water resources management in a homogenizing world: Averting the Growth and Underinvestment trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirchi, Ali; Watkins, David W.; Huckins, Casey J.; Madani, Kaveh; Hjorth, Peder

2014-09-01

Biotic homogenization, a de facto symptom of a global biodiversity crisis, underscores the urgency of reforming water resources management to focus on the health and viability of ecosystems. Global population and economic growth, coupled with inadequate investment in maintenance of ecological systems, threaten to degrade environmental integrity and ecosystem services that support the global socioeconomic system, indicative of a system governed by the Growth and Underinvestment (G&U) archetype. Water resources management is linked to biotic homogenization and degradation of system integrity through alteration of water systems, ecosystem dynamics, and composition of the biota. Consistent with the G&U archetype, water resources planning primarily treats ecological considerations as exogenous constraints rather than integral, dynamic, and responsive parts of the system. It is essential that the ecological considerations be made objectives of water resources development plans to facilitate the analysis of feedbacks and potential trade-offs between socioeconomic gains and ecological losses. We call for expediting a shift to ecosystem-based management of water resources, which requires a better understanding of the dynamics and links between water resources management actions, ecological side-effects, and associated long-term ramifications for sustainability. To address existing knowledge gaps, models that include dynamics and estimated thresholds for regime shifts or ecosystem degradation need to be developed. Policy levers for implementation of ecosystem-based water resources management include shifting away from growth-oriented supply management, better demand management, increased public awareness, and institutional reform that promotes adaptive and transdisciplinary management approaches.

State estimation improves prospects for ocean research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stammer, Detlef; Wunsch, C.; Fukumori, I.; Marshall, J.

Rigorous global ocean state estimation methods can now be used to produce dynamically consistent time-varying model/data syntheses, the results of which are being used to study a variety of important scientific problems. Figure 1 shows a schematic of a complete ocean observing and synthesis system that includes global observations and state-of-the-art ocean general circulation models (OGCM) run on modern computer platforms. A global observing system is described in detail in Smith and Koblinsky [2001],and the present status of ocean modeling and anticipated improvements are addressed by Griffies et al. [2001]. Here, the focus is on the third component of state estimation: the synthesis of the observations and a model into a unified, dynamically consistent estimate.

Dynamics of embedded curves by doubly-nonlocal reaction-diffusion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Brecht, James H.; Blair, Ryan

2017-11-01

We study a class of nonlocal, energy-driven dynamical models that govern the motion of closed, embedded curves from both an energetic and dynamical perspective. Our energetic results provide a variety of ways to understand physically motivated energetic models in terms of more classical, combinatorial measures of complexity for embedded curves. This line of investigation culminates in a family of complexity bounds that relate a rather broad class of models to a generalized, or weighted, variant of the crossing number. Our dynamic results include global well-posedness of the associated partial differential equations, regularity of equilibria for these flows as well as a more detailed investigation of dynamics near such equilibria. Finally, we explore a few global dynamical properties of these models numerically.

Global asymptotic stabilisation of rational dynamical systems based on solving BMI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaili, Farhad; Kamyad, A. V.; Jahed-Motlagh, Mohammad Reza; Pariz, Naser

2017-08-01

In this paper, the global asymptotic stabiliser design of rational systems is studied in detail. To develop the idea, the state equations of the system are transformed to a new coordinate via polynomial transformation and the state feedback control law. This in turn is followed by the satisfaction of the linear growth condition (i.e. Lipschitz at zero). Based on a linear matrix inequality solution, the system in the new coordinate is globally asymptotically stabilised and then, leading to the global asymptotic stabilisation of the primary system. The polynomial transformation coefficients are derived by solving the bilinear matrix inequality problem. To confirm the capability of this method, three examples are highlighted.

Global tracking and inventory of military hardware via LEO satellite: A system approach and likely scenario

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, David; Estabrook, Polly; Romer, Richard

1995-01-01

A system for global inventory control of electronically tagged military hardware is achievable using a LEO satellite constellation. An equipment Tag can communicate directly to the satellite with a power of 5 watts or less at a data rate of 2400 to 50,000 bps. As examples, two proposed commercial LEO systems, IRIDIUM and ORBCOMM, are both capable of providing global coverage but with dramatically different telecom capacities. Investigation of these two LEO systems as applied to the Tag scenario provides insight into satellite design trade-offs, constellation trade-offs and signal dynamics that effect the performance of a satellite-based global inventory control system.

Using Systems Thinking to train future leaders in global health.

PubMed

Paxton, Anne; Frost, Laura J

2017-07-09

Systems Thinking provides a useful set of concepts and tools that can be used to train students to be effective and innovative global health leaders in an ever-changing and often chaotic world. This paper describes an experiential, multi-disciplinary curriculum that uses Systems Thinking to frame and analyse global health policies and practices. The curriculum uses case studies and hands-on activities to deepen students' understanding of the following concepts: complex adaptive systems, dynamic complexity, inter-relationships, feedback loops, policy resistance, mental models, boundary critique, leverage points, and multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral, and multi-stakeholder thinking and action. A sample of Systems Thinking tools for analysing global health policies and practices are also introduced.

Analysis of the Effects of Surface Pitting and Wear on the Vibrations of a Gear Transmission System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Polyshchuk, V.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Handschuh, R. F.; Townsend, D. P.

1994-01-01

A comprehensive procedure to simulate and analyze the vibrations in a gear transmission system with surface pitting, 'wear' and partial tooth fracture of the gear teeth is presented. An analytical model was developed where the effects of surface pitting and wear of the gear tooth were simulated by phase and magnitude changes in the gear mesh stiffness. Changes in the gear mesh stiffness were incorporated into each gear-shaft model during the global dynamic simulation of the system. The overall dynamics of the system were evaluated by solving for the transient dynamics of each shaft system simultaneously with the vibration of the gearbox structure. In order to reduce the number of degrees-of-freedom in the system, a modal synthesis procedure was used in the global transient dynamic analysis of the overall transmission system. An FFT procedure was used to transform the averaged time signal into the frequency domain for signature analysis. In addition, the Wigner-Ville distribution was also introduced to examine the gear vibration in the joint time frequency domain for vibration pattern recognition. Experimental results obtained from a gear fatigue test rig at NASA Lewis Research Center were used to evaluate the analytical model.

Modeling Study of the Geospace System Response to the Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Enhancement on 17 March 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozturk, D. S.; Zou, S.; Ridley, A. J.; Slavin, J. A.

2018-04-01

The global magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system is intrinsically coupled and susceptible to external drivers such as solar wind dynamic pressure enhancements. In order to understand the large-scale dynamic processes in the magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system due to the compression from the solar wind, the 17 March 2015 sudden commencement was studied in detail using global numerical models. This storm was one of the most geoeffective events of the solar cycle 24 with a minimum Dst of -222 nT. The Wind spacecraft recorded a 10-nPa increment in the solar wind dynamic pressure, while the interplanetary magnetic field BZ became further northward. The University of Michigan Block-Adaptive-Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme global magnetohydrodynamic code was utilized to study the generation and propagation of perturbations associated with the compression of the magnetosphere system. In addition, the high-resolution electric potential and auroral power output from the magnetohydrodynamic model was used to drive the global ionosphere-thermosphere model to investigate the ionosphere-thermosphere system response to pressure enhancement. During the compression, the electric potentials and convection patterns in the polar ionosphere were significantly altered when the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents moved from dayside to nightside. As a result of enhanced frictional heating, plasma and neutral temperatures increased at the locations where the flow speeds were enhanced, whereas the electron density dropped at these locations. In particular, the region between the preliminary impulse and main impulse field-aligned currents experienced the most significant heating with 1000-K ion temperature increase and 20-K neutral temperature increase within 2 min. Comparison of the simulation results with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar observations showed reasonable agreements despite underestimated magnitudes.

RPV application of a globally adaptive rate controlled compressor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, R. F.

1978-01-01

A globally adaptive image compression structure is introduced for use in a tactical RPV environment. The structure described would provide an operator with the flexibility to dynamically maximize the usefulness of a limited and changing data rate. The concepts would potentially simplify system design while at the same time improving overall system performance.

Space-Group Symmetries Generate Chaotic Fluid Advection in Crystalline Granular Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turuban, R.; Lester, D. R.; Le Borgne, T.; Méheust, Y.

2018-01-01

The classical connection between symmetry breaking and the onset of chaos in dynamical systems harks back to the seminal theory of Noether [Transp. Theory Statist. Phys. 1, 186 (1918), 10.1080/00411457108231446]. We study the Lagrangian kinematics of steady 3D Stokes flow through simple cubic and body-centered cubic (bcc) crystalline lattices of close-packed spheres, and uncover an important exception. While breaking of point-group symmetries is a necessary condition for chaotic mixing in both lattices, a further space-group (glide) symmetry of the bcc lattice generates a transition from globally regular to globally chaotic dynamics. This finding provides new insights into chaotic mixing in porous media and has significant implications for understanding the impact of symmetries upon generic dynamical systems.

Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics.

PubMed

Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

2016-11-14

Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F(). To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F(), which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

Global Langevin model of multidimensional biomolecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaudinnus, Norbert; Lickert, Benjamin; Biswas, Mithun; Stock, Gerhard

2016-11-01

Molecular dynamics simulations of biomolecular processes are often discussed in terms of diffusive motion on a low-dimensional free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) . To provide a theoretical basis for this interpretation, one may invoke the system-bath ansatz á la Zwanzig. That is, by assuming a time scale separation between the slow motion along the system coordinate x and the fast fluctuations of the bath, a memory-free Langevin equation can be derived that describes the system's motion on the free energy landscape F ( 𝒙 ) , which is damped by a friction field and driven by a stochastic force that is related to the friction via the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. While the theoretical formulation of Zwanzig typically assumes a highly idealized form of the bath Hamiltonian and the system-bath coupling, one would like to extend the approach to realistic data-based biomolecular systems. Here a practical method is proposed to construct an analytically defined global model of structural dynamics. Given a molecular dynamics simulation and adequate collective coordinates, the approach employs an "empirical valence bond"-type model which is suitable to represent multidimensional free energy landscapes as well as an approximate description of the friction field. Adopting alanine dipeptide and a three-dimensional model of heptaalanine as simple examples, the resulting Langevin model is shown to reproduce the results of the underlying all-atom simulations. Because the Langevin equation can also be shown to satisfy the underlying assumptions of the theory (such as a delta-correlated Gaussian-distributed noise), the global model provides a correct, albeit empirical, realization of Zwanzig's formulation. As an application, the model can be used to investigate the dependence of the system on parameter changes and to predict the effect of site-selective mutations on the dynamics.

Stochastic process of pragmatic information for 2D spiral wave turbulence in globally and locally coupled Alief-Panfilov oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuwahara, Jun; Miyata, Hajime; Konno, Hidetoshi

2017-09-01

Recently, complex dynamics of globally coupled oscillators have been attracting many researcher's attentions. In spite of their numerous studies, their features of nonlinear oscillator systems with global and local couplings in two-dimension (2D) are not understood fully. The paper focuses on 2D states of coherent, clustered and chaotic oscillation especially under the effect of negative global coupling (NGC) in 2D Alief-Panfilov model. It is found that the tuning NGC can cause various new coupling-parameter dependency on the features of oscillations. Then quantitative characterization of various states of oscillations (so called spiral wave turbulence) is examined by using the pragmatic information (PI) which have been utilized in analyzing multimode laser, solar activity and neuronal systems. It is demonstrated that the dynamics of the PI for various oscillations can be characterized successfully by the Hyper-Gamma stochastic process.

Defining the global health system and systematically mapping its network of actors.

PubMed

Hoffman, Steven J; Cole, Clarke B

2018-04-17

The global health system has faced significant expansion over the past few decades, including continued increase in both the number and diversity of actors operating within it. However, without a stronger understanding of what the global health system encompasses, coordination of actors and resources to address today's global health challenges will not be possible. This study presents a conceptually sound and operational definition of the global health system. Importantly, this definition can be applied in practice to facilitate analysis of the system. The study tested the analytical helpfulness of this definition through a network mapping exercise, whereby the interconnected nature of websites representing actors in the global health system was studied. Using a systematic methodology and related search functions, 203 global health actors were identified, representing the largest and most transparent list of its kind to date. Identified global health actors were characterized and the structure of their social network revealed intriguing patterns in relationships among actors. These findings provide a foundation for future inquiries into the global health system's structure and dynamics that are critical if we are to better coordinate system activities and ensure successful response to our most pressing global health challenges.

Constructing Global Competence through Relationship Building in Mexican High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petro, Lisa; Garin, Maria Jose Pineda

2017-01-01

As globalization speeds forward, there is immense pressure on school systems to keep up with the changing world. School leaders and teachers must continuously reevaluate their students' needs and consider the forces that will shape their futures. Learn how a dynamic, multi-campus high school in Mexico reimagined its approach to global competence…

Entanglement as a signature of quantum chaos.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoguang; Ghose, Shohini; Sanders, Barry C; Hu, Bambi

2004-01-01

We explore the dynamics of entanglement in classically chaotic systems by considering a multiqubit system that behaves collectively as a spin system obeying the dynamics of the quantum kicked top. In the classical limit, the kicked top exhibits both regular and chaotic dynamics depending on the strength of the chaoticity parameter kappa in the Hamiltonian. We show that the entanglement of the multiqubit system, considered for both the bipartite and the pairwise entanglement, yields a signature of quantum chaos. Whereas bipartite entanglement is enhanced in the chaotic region, pairwise entanglement is suppressed. Furthermore, we define a time-averaged entangling power and show that this entangling power changes markedly as kappa moves the system from being predominantly regular to being predominantly chaotic, thus sharply identifying the edge of chaos. When this entangling power is averaged over all states, it yields a signature of global chaos. The qualitative behavior of this global entangling power is similar to that of the classical Lyapunov exponent.

Spaceflight dynamics 1993; AAS/NASA International Symposium, 8th, Greenbelt, MD, Apr. 26-30, 1993, Parts 1 & 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teles, Jerome (Editor); Samii, Mina V. (Editor)

1993-01-01

A conference on spaceflight dynamics produced papers in the areas of orbit determination, spacecraft tracking, autonomous navigation, the Deep Space Program Science Experiment Mission (DSPSE), the Global Positioning System, attitude control, geostationary satellites, interplanetary missions and trajectories, applications of estimation theory, flight dynamics systems, low-Earth orbit missions, orbital mechanics, mission experience in attitude dynamics, mission experience in sensor studies, attitude dynamics theory and simulations, and orbit-related experience. These papaers covered NASA, European, Russian, Japanese, Chinese, and Brazilian space programs and hardware.

Integration of Extended MHD and Kinetic Effects in Global Magnetosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germaschewski, K.; Wang, L.; Maynard, K. R. M.; Raeder, J.; Bhattacharjee, A.

2015-12-01

Computational models of Earth's geospace environment are an important tool to investigate the science of the coupled solar-wind -- magnetosphere -- ionosphere system, complementing satellite and ground observations with a global perspective. They are also crucial in understanding and predicting space weather, in particular under extreme conditions. Traditionally, global models have employed the one-fluid MHD approximation, which captures large-scale dynamics quite well. However, in Earth's nearly collisionless plasma environment it breaks down on small scales, where ion and electron dynamics and kinetic effects become important, and greatly change the reconnection dynamics. A number of approaches have recently been taken to advance global modeling, e.g., including multiple ion species, adding Hall physics in a Generalized Ohm's Law, embedding local PIC simulations into a larger fluid domain and also some work on simulating the entire system with hybrid or fully kinetic models, the latter however being to computationally expensive to be run at realistic parameters. We will present an alternate approach, ie., a multi-fluid moment model that is derived rigorously from the Vlasov-Maxwell system. The advantage is that the computational cost remains managable, as we are still solving fluid equations. While the evolution equation for each moment is exact, it depends on the next higher-order moment, so that truncating the hiearchy and closing the system to capture the essential kinetic physics is crucial. We implement 5-moment (density, momentum, scalar pressure) and 10-moment (includes pressure tensor) versions of the model, and use local approximations for the heat flux to close the system. We test these closures by local simulations where we can compare directly to PIC / hybrid codes, and employ them in global simulations using the next-generation OpenGGCM to contrast them to MHD / Hall-MHD results and compare with observations.

Synchronous Motions Across the Instrumental Climate Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carl, Peter

The Earth's climate system bears a rich variety of feedback mechanisms that may give rise to complex, evolving modal structures under internal and external control. Various types of synchronization may be identified in the system's motion when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period through the glasses of an advanced technique of sparse data approximation, the Matching Pursuit (MP) approach. To disentangle the emerging network of oscillatory modes to the degree that climate dynamics turns out to be separable, a large dictionary of "Gaussian logons," i.e. frequency modulated (FM) Gabor atoms, is applied. Though the extracted modes make up linear decompositions, this flexible analyzing signal matches highly nonlinear waveforms. Univariate analyses over the period 1870-1997 are presented of a set of customary time series in annual resolution, comprising global and regional climate, central European synoptic systems, German precipitation, and runoff of the Elbe river near Dresden. All the evidence from this first-generation MP-FM study, obtained in subsequent multivariate syntheses, points to dynamically excited regimes of an organized yet complex climate system under permanent change—perhaps a (pre)chaotic one at centennial timescales, suggesting a "chaos control" perspective on global climate dynamics and change. Findings and conclusions include, among others, internal structure of reconstructed insolation, the episodic nature of global warming as reflected in multidecadal temperature modes, their swarm of "interdomain" companions across the whole system that unveils an unknown regime character of interannual climate dynamics, and the apparent onset early in the 1990s of the present thermal stagnation.

Using Models to Inform Policy: Insights from Modeling the Complexities of Global Polio Eradication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Kimberly M.

Drawing on over 20 years of experience modeling risks in complex systems, this talk will challenge SBP participants to develop models that provide timely and useful answers to critical policy questions when decision makers need them. The talk will include reflections on the opportunities and challenges associated with developing integrated models for complex problems and communicating their results effectively. Dr. Thompson will focus the talk largely on collaborative modeling related to global polio eradication and the application of system dynamics tools. After successful global eradication of wild polioviruses, live polioviruses will still present risks that could potentially lead to paralytic polio cases. This talk will present the insights of efforts to use integrated dynamic, probabilistic risk, decision, and economic models to address critical policy questions related to managing global polio risks. Using a dynamic disease transmission model combined with probabilistic model inputs that characterize uncertainty for a stratified world to account for variability, we find that global health leaders will face some difficult choices, but that they can take actions that will manage the risks effectively. The talk will emphasize the need for true collaboration between modelers and subject matter experts, and the importance of working with decision makers as partners to ensure the development of useful models that actually get used.

In Search of Air Pollution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beckendorf, Kirk

2006-01-01

Air pollution is no longer just a local issue; it is a global problem. The atmosphere is a very dynamic system. Pollution not only changes in chemical composition after it is emitted, but also is transported on local and global air systems hundreds and even thousands of miles away. Some of the pollutants that are major health concerns are not even…

Dynamic water allocation policies improve the global efficiency of storage systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niayifar, Amin; Perona, Paolo

2017-06-01

Water impoundment by dams strongly affects the river natural flow regime, its attributes and the related ecosystem biodiversity. Fostering the sustainability of water uses e.g., hydropower systems thus implies searching for innovative operational policies able to generate Dynamic Environmental Flows (DEF) that mimic natural flow variability. The objective of this study is to propose a Direct Policy Search (DPS) framework based on defining dynamic flow release rules to improve the global efficiency of storage systems. The water allocation policies proposed for dammed systems are an extension of previously developed flow redistribution rules for small hydropower plants by Razurel et al. (2016).The mathematical form of the Fermi-Dirac statistical distribution applied to lake equations for the stored water in the dam is used to formulate non-proportional redistribution rules that partition the flow for energy production and environmental use. While energy production is computed from technical data, riverine ecological benefits associated with DEF are computed by integrating the Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for fishes with Richter's hydrological indicators. Then, multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) are applied to build ecological versus economic efficiency plot and locate its (Pareto) frontier. This study benchmarks two MOEAs (NSGA II and Borg MOEA) and compares their efficiency in terms of the quality of Pareto's frontier and computational cost. A detailed analysis of dam characteristics is performed to examine their impact on the global system efficiency and choice of the best redistribution rule. Finally, it is found that non-proportional flow releases can statistically improve the global efficiency, specifically the ecological one, of the hydropower system when compared to constant minimal flows.

Workshop on Closed System Ecology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

Self maintaining laboratory scale ecological systems completely isolated from exchanges of matter with external systems were demonstrated. These research tools are discussed in terms of their anticipated value in understanding (1) global ecological material and energy balances, (2) the dynamics of stability and instability in ecosystems, (3) the effects of man-made substances and structures on ecosystems, and (4) the precise requirements for dynamic control of controlled ecology life support systems (CELSS).

Global Dynamics of Proteins: Bridging Between Structure and Function

PubMed Central

Bahar, Ivet; Lezon, Timothy R.; Yang, Lee-Wei; Eyal, Eran

2010-01-01

Biomolecular systems possess unique, structure-encoded dynamic properties that underlie their biological functions. Recent studies indicate that these dynamic properties are determined to a large extent by the topology of native contacts. In recent years, elastic network models used in conjunction with normal mode analyses have proven to be useful for elucidating the collective dynamics intrinsically accessible under native state conditions, including in particular the global modes of motions that are robustly defined by the overall architecture. With increasing availability of structural data for well-studied proteins in different forms (liganded, complexed, or free), there is increasing evidence in support of the correspondence between functional changes in structures observed in experiments and the global motions predicted by these coarse-grained analyses. These observed correlations suggest that computational methods may be advantageously employed for assessing functional changes in structure and allosteric mechanisms intrinsically favored by the native fold. PMID:20192781

Global dynamics of proteins: bridging between structure and function.

PubMed

Bahar, Ivet; Lezon, Timothy R; Yang, Lee-Wei; Eyal, Eran

2010-01-01

Biomolecular systems possess unique, structure-encoded dynamic properties that underlie their biological functions. Recent studies indicate that these dynamic properties are determined to a large extent by the topology of native contacts. In recent years, elastic network models used in conjunction with normal mode analyses have proven to be useful for elucidating the collective dynamics intrinsically accessible under native state conditions, including in particular the global modes of motions that are robustly defined by the overall architecture. With increasing availability of structural data for well-studied proteins in different forms (liganded, complexed, or free), there is increasing evidence in support of the correspondence between functional changes in structures observed in experiments and the global motions predicted by these coarse-grained analyses. These observed correlations suggest that computational methods may be advantageously employed for assessing functional changes in structure and allosteric mechanisms intrinsically favored by the native fold.

Three-dimensional discrete-time Lotka-Volterra models with an application to industrial clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bischi, G. I.; Tramontana, F.

2010-10-01

We consider a three-dimensional discrete dynamical system that describes an application to economics of a generalization of the Lotka-Volterra prey-predator model. The dynamic model proposed is used to describe the interactions among industrial clusters (or districts), following a suggestion given by [23]. After studying some local and global properties and bifurcations in bidimensional Lotka-Volterra maps, by numerical explorations we show how some of them can be extended to their three-dimensional counterparts, even if their analytic and geometric characterization becomes much more difficult and challenging. We also show a global bifurcation of the three-dimensional system that has no two-dimensional analogue. Besides the particular economic application considered, the study of the discrete version of Lotka-Volterra dynamical systems turns out to be a quite rich and interesting topic by itself, i.e. from a purely mathematical point of view.

Simulating the Agulhas system in global ocean models - nesting vs. multi-resolution unstructured meshes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biastoch, Arne; Sein, Dmitry; Durgadoo, Jonathan V.; Wang, Qiang; Danilov, Sergey

2018-01-01

Many questions in ocean and climate modelling require the combined use of high resolution, global coverage and multi-decadal integration length. For this combination, even modern resources limit the use of traditional structured-mesh grids. Here we compare two approaches: A high-resolution grid nested into a global model at coarser resolution (NEMO with AGRIF) and an unstructured-mesh grid (FESOM) which allows to variably enhance resolution where desired. The Agulhas system around South Africa is used as a testcase, providing an energetic interplay of a strong western boundary current and mesoscale dynamics. Its open setting into the horizontal and global overturning circulations also requires global coverage. Both model configurations simulate a reasonable large-scale circulation. Distribution and temporal variability of the wind-driven circulation are quite comparable due to the same atmospheric forcing. However, the overturning circulation differs, owing each model's ability to represent formation and spreading of deep water masses. In terms of regional, high-resolution dynamics, all elements of the Agulhas system are well represented. Owing to the strong nonlinearity in the system, Agulhas Current transports of both configurations and in comparison with observations differ in strength and temporal variability. Similar decadal trends in Agulhas Current transport and Agulhas leakage are linked to the trends in wind forcing.

Complexity in Nature and Society: Complexity Management in the Age of Globalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mainzer, Klaus

The theory of nonlinear complex systems has become a proven problem-solving approach in the natural sciences from cosmic and quantum systems to cellular organisms and the brain. Even in modern engineering science self-organizing systems are developed to manage complex networks and processes. It is now recognized that many of our ecological, social, economic, and political problems are also of a global, complex, and nonlinear nature. What are the laws of sociodynamics? Is there a socio-engineering of nonlinear problem solving? What can we learn from nonlinear dynamics for complexity management in social, economic, financial and political systems? Is self-organization an acceptable strategy to handle the challenges of complexity in firms, institutions and other organizations? It is a main thesis of the talk that nature and society are basically governed by nonlinear and complex information dynamics. How computational is sociodynamics? What can we hope for social, economic and political problem solving in the age of globalization?.

Striving for safety: communicating and deciding in sociotechnical systems

PubMed Central

Flach, John M.; Carroll, John S.; Dainoff, Marvin J.; Hamilton, W. Ian

2015-01-01

How do communications and decisions impact the safety of sociotechnical systems? This paper frames this question in the context of a dynamic system of nested sub-systems. Communications are related to the construct of observability (i.e. how components integrate information to assess the state with respect to local and global constraints). Decisions are related to the construct of controllability (i.e. how component sub-systems act to meet local and global safety goals). The safety dynamics of sociotechnical systems are evaluated as a function of the coupling between observability and controllability across multiple closed-loop components. Two very different domains (nuclear power and the limited service food industry) provide examples to illustrate how this framework might be applied. While the dynamical systems framework does not offer simple prescriptions for achieving safety, it does provide guides for exploring specific systems to consider the potential fit between organisational structures and work demands, and for generalising across different systems regarding how safety can be managed. Practitioner Summary: While offering no simple prescriptions about how to achieve safety in sociotechnical systems, this paper develops a theoretical framework based on dynamical systems theory as a practical guide for generalising from basic research to work domains and for generalising across alternative work domains to better understand how patterns of communication and decision-making impact system safety. PMID:25761155

Markov State Models of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Chu, Brian K; Tse, Margaret J; Sato, Royce R; Read, Elizabeth L

2017-02-06

Gene regulatory networks with dynamics characterized by multiple stable states underlie cell fate-decisions. Quantitative models that can link molecular-level knowledge of gene regulation to a global understanding of network dynamics have the potential to guide cell-reprogramming strategies. Networks are often modeled by the stochastic Chemical Master Equation, but methods for systematic identification of key properties of the global dynamics are currently lacking. The method identifies the number, phenotypes, and lifetimes of long-lived states for a set of common gene regulatory network models. Application of transition path theory to the constructed Markov State Model decomposes global dynamics into a set of dominant transition paths and associated relative probabilities for stochastic state-switching. In this proof-of-concept study, we found that the Markov State Model provides a general framework for analyzing and visualizing stochastic multistability and state-transitions in gene networks. Our results suggest that this framework-adopted from the field of atomistic Molecular Dynamics-can be a useful tool for quantitative Systems Biology at the network scale.

Global modeling of storm-time thermospheric dynamics and electrodynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Richmond, A. D.; Maruyama, N.

Understanding the neutral dynamic and electrodynamic response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms, and quantifying the balance between prompt penetration and disturbance dynamo effects, are two of the significant challenges facing us today. This paper reviews our understanding of the dynamical and electrodynamic response of the upper atmosphere to storms from a modeling perspective. After injection of momentum and energy at high latitude during a geomagnetic storm, the neutral winds begin to respond almost immediately. The high-latitude wind system evolves quickly by the action of ion drag and the injection of kinetic energy; however, Joule dissipation provides the bulk of the energy source to change the dynamics and electrodynamics globally. Impulsive energy injection at high latitudes drives large-scale gravity waves that propagate globally. The waves transmit pressure gradients initiating a change in the global circulation. Numerical simulations of the coupled thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere, and electrodynamic response to storms indicate that although the wind and waves are dynamic, with significant apparent "sloshing" between the hemispheres, the net effect is for an increased equatorward wind. The dynamic changes during a storm provide the conduit for many of the physical processes that ensue in the upper atmosphere. For instance, the increased meridional winds at mid latitudes push plasma parallel to the magnetic field to regions of different composition. The global circulation carries molecular rich air from the lower thermosphere upward and equatorward, changing the ratio of atomic and molecular neutral species, and changing loss rates for the ionosphere. The storm wind system also drives the disturbance dynamo, which through plasma transport modifies the strength and location of the equatorial ionization anomaly peaks. On a global scale, the increased equatorward meridional winds, and the generation of zonal winds at mid latitudes via the Coriolis effects, produce a current system opposing the normal quiet-time Sq current system. At the equator, the storm-time zonal electric fields reduce or reverse the normal upward and downward plasma drift on the dayside and nightside, respectively. In the numerical simulations, on the dayside, the disturbance dynamo appears fairly uniform, whereas at night a stronger local time dependence is apparent with increased upward drift between midnight and dawn. The simulations also indicate the possibility for a rapid dynamo response at the equator, within 2 h of storm onset, before the arrival of the large-scale gravity waves. All these wind-driven processes can result in dramatic ionospheric changes during storms. The disturbance dynamo can combine and interact with the prompt penetration of magnetospheric electric fields to the equator.

Global culture: A noise-induced transition in finite systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemm, Konstantin; Eguíluz, Víctor M.; Toral, Raúl; Miguel, Maxi San

2003-04-01

We analyze the effect of cultural drift, modeled as noise, in Axelrod’s model for the dissemination of culture. The disordered multicultural frozen configurations are found not to be stable. This general result is proven rigorously in d=1, where the dynamics is described in terms of a Lyapunov potential. In d=2, the dynamics is governed by the average relaxation time T of perturbations. Noise at a rate r≲T-1 induces monocultural configurations, whereas r≳T-1 sustains disorder. In the thermodynamic limit, the relaxation time diverges and global polarization persists in spite of a dynamics of local convergence.

Teaching Sustainability through System Dynamics: Exploring Stocks and Flows Embedded in Dynamic Computer Models of an Agricultural Land Management System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pallant, Amy; Lee, Hee-Sun

2017-01-01

During the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness of the ways humans affect Earth systems. As global problems emerge, educating the next generation of citizens to be able to make informed choices related to future outcomes is increasingly important. The challenge for educators is figuring out how to prepare students to think…

Global changes in biogeochemical cycles in response to human activities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Melillo, Jerry

1994-01-01

The main objective of our research was to characterize biogeochemical cycles at continental and global scales in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. This characterization applied to both natural ecosystems and those disturbed by human activity. The primary elements of interest were carbon and nitrogen and the analysis sought to quantify standing stocks and dynamic cycling processes. The translocation of major nutrients from the terrestrial landscape to the atmosphere (via trace gases) and to fluvial systems (via leaching, erosional losses, and point source pollution) were of particular importance to this study. Our aim was to develop the first generation of Earth System Models. Our research was organized around the construction and testing of component biogeochemical models which treated terrestrial ecosystem processes, aquatic nutrient transport through drainage basins, and trace gas exchanges at the continental and global scale. A suite of three complementary models were defined within this construct. The models were organized to operate at a 1/2 degree latitude by longitude level of spatial resolution and to execute at a monthly time step. This discretization afforded us the opportunity to understand the dynamics of the biosphere down to subregional scales, while simultaneously placing these dynamics into a global context.

Quantum measurement-induced dynamics of many-body ultracold bosonic and fermionic systems in optical lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzucchi, Gabriel; Kozlowski, Wojciech; Caballero-Benitez, Santiago F.; Elliott, Thomas J.; Mekhov, Igor B.

2016-02-01

Trapping ultracold atoms in optical lattices enabled numerous breakthroughs uniting several disciplines. Coupling these systems to quantized light leads to a plethora of new phenomena and has opened up a new field of study. Here we introduce an unusual additional source of competition in a many-body strongly correlated system: We prove that quantum backaction of global measurement is able to efficiently compete with intrinsic short-range dynamics of an atomic system. The competition becomes possible due to the ability to change the spatial profile of a global measurement at a microscopic scale comparable to the lattice period without the need of single site addressing. In coherence with a general physical concept, where new competitions typically lead to new phenomena, we demonstrate nontrivial dynamical effects such as large-scale multimode oscillations, long-range entanglement, and correlated tunneling, as well as selective suppression and enhancement of dynamical processes beyond the projective limit of the quantum Zeno effect. We demonstrate both the breakup and protection of strongly interacting fermion pairs by measurement. Such a quantum optical approach introduces into many-body physics novel processes, objects, and methods of quantum engineering, including the design of many-body entangled environments for open systems.

Importance of vegetation distribution for future carbon balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, A.; Xia, J.; Arneth, A.; Luo, Y.; Smith, B.

2015-12-01

Projections of future terrestrial carbon uptake vary greatly between simulations. Net primary production (NPP), wild fires, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts) and soil decomposition constitute the main processes governing the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle in a changing climate. While primary production and soil respiration are relatively well studied and implemented in all global ecosystem models used to project the future land sink of CO2, vegetation dynamics are less studied and not always represented in global models. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality and the associated turnover and proven skill in predicting vegetation distribution and succession. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the CMIP5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing at year 2085. We exchanged carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations and investigate the changes predicted by the emulator. This method allowed us to partition the entire ensemble carbon uptake uncertainty into individual processes. We found that NPP, vegetation dynamics (including biome shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33% respectively of uncertainties in modeled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation dynamics was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by shifts in vegetation distribution, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

Global energy shifts: Future possibilities in historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podobnik, Bruce Michael

2000-11-01

This study adopts a macro-comparative, world-systems perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of three global dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competition, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal system and paved the way for the consolidation of an international petroleum system in the twentieth century. Specifically, the historical analysis presented in this dissertation shows that: (1) intervention by state agents was absolutely crucial in the early development and later expansion of the international petroleum system; (2) private coal companies attempted to prevent the consolidation of an oil-based energy system, but these older companies were out-competed by newer, multinational petroleum corporations; and (3) waves of labor unrest in established coal industries played a key role in prompting a relatively rapid shift away from coal and towards petroleum. Indeed, a key conclusion of this study is that pressures exerted by such social movements as labor unions, nationalist movements, and environmental coalitions have played as important a role in influencing energy trajectories as the more commonly-recognized actions of governmental and corporate actors. By examining contemporary patterns of state and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies, as well as the growing influence of environmental regulations it is argued that global dynamics are beginning to favor a shift towards new, more environmentally sustainable energy technologies. The fuel cell is highlighted as one new energy technology that is poised to enter into widespread diffusion in the coming decades, though potentials for expansions in wind, solar, small-scale hydro-electric, and modern biomass systems are also examined. Although significant hurdles must be overcome, this study concludes by suggesting reasons why a shift towards a more sustainable global energy system can be carried out in the twenty-first century.

Learning Human Actions by Combining Global Dynamics and Local Appearance.

PubMed

Luo, Guan; Yang, Shuang; Tian, Guodong; Yuan, Chunfeng; Hu, Weiming; Maybank, Stephen J

2014-12-01

In this paper, we address the problem of human action recognition through combining global temporal dynamics and local visual spatio-temporal appearance features. For this purpose, in the global temporal dimension, we propose to model the motion dynamics with robust linear dynamical systems (LDSs) and use the model parameters as motion descriptors. Since LDSs live in a non-Euclidean space and the descriptors are in non-vector form, we propose a shift invariant subspace angles based distance to measure the similarity between LDSs. In the local visual dimension, we construct curved spatio-temporal cuboids along the trajectories of densely sampled feature points and describe them using histograms of oriented gradients (HOG). The distance between motion sequences is computed with the Chi-Squared histogram distance in the bag-of-words framework. Finally we perform classification using the maximum margin distance learning method by combining the global dynamic distances and the local visual distances. We evaluate our approach for action recognition on five short clips data sets, namely Weizmann, KTH, UCF sports, Hollywood2 and UCF50, as well as three long continuous data sets, namely VIRAT, ADL and CRIM13. We show competitive results as compared with current state-of-the-art methods.

Final report for DOE Award # DE- SC0010039*: Carbon dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate: Forcings, feedbacks, and implications for earth system modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.; DeLucia, Evan H.; Duval, Benjamin D.

2015-10-29

To advance understanding of C dynamics of forests globally, we compiled a new database, the Forest C database (ForC-db), which contains data on ground-based measurements of ecosystem-level C stocks and annual fluxes along with disturbance history. This database currently contains 18,791 records from 2009 sites, making it the largest and most comprehensive database of C stocks and flows in forest ecosystems globally. The tropical component of the database will be published in conjunction with a manuscript that is currently under review (Anderson-Teixeira et al., in review). Database development continues, and we hope to maintain a dynamic instance of the entiremore » (global) database.« less

Global cosmological dynamics for the scalar field representation of the modified Chaplygin gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uggla, Claes

2013-09-01

In this paper we investigate the global dynamics for the minimally coupled scalar field representation of the modified Chaplygin gas in the context of flat Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson Walker cosmology. The tool for doing this is a new set of bounded variables that lead to a regular dynamical system. It is shown that the exact modified Chaplygin gas perfect fluid solution appears as a straight line in the associated phase plane. It is also shown that no other solutions stay close to this solution during their entire temporal evolution, but that there exists an open subset of solutions that stay arbitrarily close during an intermediate time interval, and into the future in the case when the scalar field potential exhibits a global minimum.

Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tieszen, Larry L.

2007-01-01

The Land Cover Applications, Landscape Dynamics, and Global Change project at U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) seeks to integrate remote sensing and simulation models to better understand and seek solutions to national and global issues. Modeling processes related to population impacts, natural resource management, climate change, invasive species, land use changes, energy development, and climate mitigation all pose significant scientific opportunities. The project activities use remotely sensed data to support spatial monitoring, provide sensitivity analyses across landscapes and large regions, and make the data and results available on the Internet with data access and distribution, decision support systems, and on-line modeling. Applications support sustainable natural resource use, carbon cycle science, biodiversity conservation, climate change mitigation, and robust simulation modeling approaches that evaluate ecosystem and landscape dynamics.

Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

Treesearch

John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

Boundedness and global stability of the two-predator and one-prey models with nonlinear prey-taxis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianping; Wang, Mingxin

2018-06-01

This paper concerns the reaction-diffusion systems modeling the population dynamics of two predators and one prey with nonlinear prey-taxis. We first investigate the global existence and boundedness of the unique classical solution for the general model. Then, we study the global stabilities of nonnegative spatially homogeneous equilibria for an explicit system with type I functional responses and density-dependent death rates for the predators and logistic growth for the prey. Moreover, the convergence rates are also established.

Modeling vegetation and carbon dynamics of managed grasslands at the global scale with LPJmL 3.6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rolinski, Susanne; Müller, Christoph; Heinke, Jens; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bondeau, Alberte; Boons-Prins, Eltje R.; Bouwman, Alexander F.; Leffelaar, Peter A.; te Roller, Johnny A.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thonicke, Kirsten

2018-02-01

Grassland management affects the carbon fluxes of one-third of the global land area and is thus an important factor for the global carbon budget. Nonetheless, this aspect has been largely neglected or underrepresented in global carbon cycle models. We investigate four harvesting schemes for the managed grassland implementation of the dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) that facilitate a better representation of actual management systems globally. We describe the model implementation and analyze simulation results with respect to harvest, net primary productivity and soil carbon content and by evaluating them against reported grass yields in Europe. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for differences in grassland management by assessing potential livestock grazing densities as well as the impacts of grazing, grazing intensities and mowing systems on soil carbon stocks. Grazing leads to soil carbon losses in polar or arid regions even at moderate livestock densities (< 0.4 livestock units per hectare - LSU ha-1) but not in temperate regions even at much higher densities (0.4 to 1.2 LSU ha-1). Applying LPJmL with the new grassland management options enables assessments of the global grassland production and its impact on the terrestrial biogeochemical cycles but requires a global data set on current grassland management.

The spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases with birth and death on heterogeneous networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yi; Cao, Jinde; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Hayat, Tasawar

2017-02-01

In this paper, we formulate a deterministic model by including the vacant sites, which represent inactive individuals or potential contacts, to investigate the spreading dynamics of sexually transmitted diseases in heterogeneous networks. We first analytically derive the basic reproduction number R 0, which completely determines global dynamics of the system in the long run. Specifically, if R 0  <  1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, i.e. disease disappears from the network irrespective of initial infected numbers and distributions, whereas if R 0  >  1, the system is uniformly persistent around a unique endemic equilibrium, i.e. disease persists in the network. Furthermore, by using a suitable Lyapunov function the global stability of endemic equilibrium for low/high-risk infected individuals only is proved. Finally, the effects of three immunization schemes are studied and compared, and extensive numerical simulations are performed to investigate the effect of network topology and population turnover on disease spread. Our results suggest that population turnover could have great impact on the sexually transmitted disease system in heterogeneous networks, including the basic reproduction number and infection prevalence.

Principal process analysis of biological models.

PubMed

Casagranda, Stefano; Touzeau, Suzanne; Ropers, Delphine; Gouzé, Jean-Luc

2018-06-14

Understanding the dynamical behaviour of biological systems is challenged by their large number of components and interactions. While efforts have been made in this direction to reduce model complexity, they often prove insufficient to grasp which and when model processes play a crucial role. Answering these questions is fundamental to unravel the functioning of living organisms. We design a method for dealing with model complexity, based on the analysis of dynamical models by means of Principal Process Analysis. We apply the method to a well-known model of circadian rhythms in mammals. The knowledge of the system trajectories allows us to decompose the system dynamics into processes that are active or inactive with respect to a certain threshold value. Process activities are graphically represented by Boolean and Dynamical Process Maps. We detect model processes that are always inactive, or inactive on some time interval. Eliminating these processes reduces the complex dynamics of the original model to the much simpler dynamics of the core processes, in a succession of sub-models that are easier to analyse. We quantify by means of global relative errors the extent to which the simplified models reproduce the main features of the original system dynamics and apply global sensitivity analysis to test the influence of model parameters on the errors. The results obtained prove the robustness of the method. The analysis of the sub-model dynamics allows us to identify the source of circadian oscillations. We find that the negative feedback loop involving proteins PER, CRY, CLOCK-BMAL1 is the main oscillator, in agreement with previous modelling and experimental studies. In conclusion, Principal Process Analysis is a simple-to-use method, which constitutes an additional and useful tool for analysing the complex dynamical behaviour of biological systems.

Mesoscale weather and climate modeling with the global non-hydrostatic Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) at cloud-permitting resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Putman, W. M.; Suarez, M.

2009-12-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5), an earth system model developed in the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), has integrated the non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core on the cubed-sphere grid. The extension to a non-hydrostatic dynamical framework and the quasi-uniform cubed-sphere geometry permits the efficient exploration of global weather and climate modeling at cloud permitting resolutions of 10- to 4-km on today's high performance computing platforms. We have explored a series of incremental increases in global resolution with GEOS-5 from it's standard 72-level 27-km resolution (~5.5 million cells covering the globe from the surface to 0.1 hPa) down to 3.5-km (~3.6 billion cells). We will present results from a series of forecast experiments exploring the impact of the non-hydrostatic dynamics at transition resolutions of 14- to 7-km, and the influence of increased horizontal/vertical resolution on convection and physical parameterizations within GEOS-5. Regional and mesoscale features of 5- to 10-day weather forecasts will be presented and compared with satellite observations. Our results will highlight the impact of resolution on the structure of cloud features including tropical convection and tropical cyclone predicability, cloud streets, von Karman vortices, and the marine stratocumulus cloud layer. We will also present experiment design and early results from climate impact experiments for global non-hydrostatic models using GEOS-5. Our climate experiments will focus on support for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). We will also discuss a seasonal climate time-slice experiment design for downscaling coarse resolution century scale climate simulations to global non-hydrostatic resolutions of 14- to 7-km with GEOS-5.

Study on UKF based federal integrated navigation for high dynamic aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Gang; Shao, Wei; Chen, Kai; Yan, Jie

2011-08-01

High dynamic aircraft is a very attractive new generation vehicles, in which provides near space aviation with large flight envelope both speed and altitude, for example the hypersonic vehicles. The complex flight environments for high dynamic vehicles require high accuracy and stability navigation scheme. Since the conventional Strapdown Inertial Navigation System (SINS) and Global Position System (GPS) federal integrated scheme based on EKF (Extended Kalman Filter) is invalidation in GPS single blackout situation because of high speed flight, a new high precision and stability integrated navigation approach is presented in this paper, in which the SINS, GPS and Celestial Navigation System (CNS) is combined as a federal information fusion configuration based on nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) algorithm. Firstly, the new integrated system state error is modeled. According to this error model, the SINS system is used as the navigation solution mathematic platform. The SINS combine with GPS constitute one error estimation filter subsystem based on UKF to obtain local optimal estimation, and the SINS combine with CNS constitute another error estimation subsystem. A non-reset federated configuration filter based on partial information is proposed to fuse two local optimal estimations to get global optimal error estimation, and the global optimal estimation is used to correct the SINS navigation solution. The χ 2 fault detection method is used to detect the subsystem fault, and the fault subsystem is isolation through fault interval to protect system away from the divergence. The integrated system takes advantages of SINS, GPS and CNS to an immense improvement for high accuracy and reliably high dynamic navigation application. Simulation result shows that federated fusion of using GPS and CNS to revise SINS solution is reasonable and availably with good estimation performance, which are satisfied with the demands of high dynamic flight navigation. The UKF is superior than EKF based integrated scheme, in which has smaller estimation error and quickly convergence rate.

Evolutionary optimization with data collocation for reverse engineering of biological networks.

PubMed

Tsai, Kuan-Yao; Wang, Feng-Sheng

2005-04-01

Modern experimental biology is moving away from analyses of single elements to whole-organism measurements. Such measured time-course data contain a wealth of information about the structure and dynamic of the pathway or network. The dynamic modeling of the whole systems is formulated as a reverse problem that requires a well-suited mathematical model and a very efficient computational method to identify the model structure and parameters. Numerical integration for differential equations and finding global parameter values are still two major challenges in this field of the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems. We compare three techniques of parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamic biological systems. In the proposed scheme, the modified collocation method is applied to convert the differential equations to the system of algebraic equations. The observed time-course data are then substituted into the algebraic system equations to decouple system interactions in order to obtain the approximate model profiles. Hybrid differential evolution (HDE) with population size of five is able to find a global solution. The method is not only suited for parameter estimation but also can be applied for structure identification. The solution obtained by HDE is then used as the starting point for a local search method to yield the refined estimates.

Decadal Trends and Common Dynamics of the Bio-Optical and Thermal Characteristics of the African Great Lakes

PubMed Central

Loiselle, Steven; Cózar, Andrés; Adgo, Enyew; Ballatore, Thomas; Chavula, Geoffrey; Descy, Jean Pierre; Harper, David M.; Kansiime, Frank; Kimirei, Ismael; Langenberg, Victor; Ma, Ronghua; Sarmento, Hugo; Odada, Eric

2014-01-01

The Great Lakes of East Africa are among the world’s most important freshwater ecosystems. Despite their importance in providing vital resources and ecosystem services, the impact of regional and global environmental drivers on this lacustrine system remains only partially understood. We make a systematic comparison of the dynamics of the bio-optical and thermal properties of thirteen of the largest African lakes between 2002 and 2011. Lake surface temperatures had a positive trend in all Great Lakes outside the latitude of 0° to 8° south, while the dynamics of those lakes within this latitude range were highly sensitive to global inter-annual climate drivers (i.e. El Niño Southern Oscillation). Lake surface temperature dynamics in nearly all lakes were found to be sensitive to the latitudinal position of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. Phytoplankton dynamics varied considerably between lakes, with increasing and decreasing trends. Intra-lake differences in both surface temperature and phytoplankton dynamics occurred for many of the larger lakes. This inter-comparison of bio-optical and thermal dynamics provides new insights into the response of these ecosystems to global and regional drivers. PMID:24699528

Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

1974-01-01

The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

Wetland monitoring with Global Navigation Satellite System reflectometry

PubMed Central

Zuffada, Cinzia; Shah, Rashmi; Chew, Clara; Lowe, Stephen T.; Mannucci, Anthony J.; Cardellach, Estel; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Geller, Gary; Rosenqvist, Ake

2017-01-01

Abstract Information about wetland dynamics remains a major missing gap in characterizing, understanding, and projecting changes in atmospheric methane and terrestrial water storage. A review of current satellite methods to delineate and monitor wetland change shows some recent advances, but much improved sensing technologies are still needed for wetland mapping, not only to provide more accurate global inventories but also to examine changes spanning multiple decades. Global Navigation Satellite Systems Reflectometry (GNSS‐R) signatures from aircraft over the Ebro River Delta in Spain and satellite measurements over the Mississippi River and adjacent watersheds demonstrate that inundated wetlands can be identified under different vegetation conditions including a dense rice canopy and a thick forest with tall trees, where optical sensors and monostatic radars provide limited capabilities. Advantages as well as constraints of GNSS‐R are presented, and the synergy with various satellite observations are considered to achieve a breakthrough capability for multidecadal wetland dynamics monitoring with frequent global coverage at multiple spatial and temporal scales. PMID:28331894

Trust Model for Protection of Personal Health Data in a Global Environment.

PubMed

Ruotsalainen, Pekka; Blobel, Bernd

2017-01-01

Successful health care, eHealth, digital health, and personal health systems increasingly take place in cross-jurisdictional, dynamic and risk-encumbered information space. They require rich amount of personal health information (PHI). Trust is and will be the cornerstone and prerequisite for successful health services. In global environments, trust cannot be expected as granted. In this paper, health service in the global environment is perceived as a meta-system, and a trust management model is developed to support it. The predefined trusting belief currently used in health care is not transferable to global environments. In the authors' model, the level of trust is dynamically calculated from measurable attributes. These attributes describe trust features of the service provider and its environment. The calculated trust value or profile can be used in defining the risk service user has to accept when disclosing PHI, and in definition of additional privacy and security safeguards before disclosing PHI and/or using services.

The Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mora, P.; Muhlhaus, H.; Lister, G.; Dyskin, A.; Place, D.; Appelbe, B.; Nimmervoll, N.; Abramson, D.

2001-12-01

Numerical simulation of the physics and dynamics of the entire earth system offers an outstanding opportunity for advancing earth system science and technology but represents a major challenge due to the range of scales and physical processes involved, as well as the magnitude of the software engineering effort required. However, new simulation and computer technologies are bringing this objective within reach. Under a special competitive national funding scheme to establish new Major National Research Facilities (MNRF), the Australian government together with a consortium of Universities and research institutions have funded construction of the Australian Computational Earth Systems Simulator (ACcESS). The Simulator or computational virtual earth will provide the research infrastructure to the Australian earth systems science community required for simulations of dynamical earth processes at scales ranging from microscopic to global. It will consist of thematic supercomputer infrastructure and an earth systems simulation software system. The Simulator models and software will be constructed over a five year period by a multi-disciplinary team of computational scientists, mathematicians, earth scientists, civil engineers and software engineers. The construction team will integrate numerical simulation models (3D discrete elements/lattice solid model, particle-in-cell large deformation finite-element method, stress reconstruction models, multi-scale continuum models etc) with geophysical, geological and tectonic models, through advanced software engineering and visualization technologies. When fully constructed, the Simulator aims to provide the software and hardware infrastructure needed to model solid earth phenomena including global scale dynamics and mineralisation processes, crustal scale processes including plate tectonics, mountain building, interacting fault system dynamics, and micro-scale processes that control the geological, physical and dynamic behaviour of earth systems. ACcESS represents a part of Australia's contribution to the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation (ACES) international initiative. Together with other national earth systems science initiatives including the Japanese Earth Simulator and US General Earthquake Model projects, ACcESS aims to provide a driver for scientific advancement and technological breakthroughs including: quantum leaps in understanding of earth evolution at global, crustal, regional and microscopic scales; new knowledge of the physics of crustal fault systems required to underpin the grand challenge of earthquake prediction; new understanding and predictive capabilities of geological processes such as tectonics and mineralisation.

Advances in structural monitoring with Global Positioning System technology: 1997-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogaja, Clement; Li, Xiaojing; Rizos, Chris

2007-11-01

Over the last decade, users of the Global Positioning System (GPS) have developed the technology capable of meeting stringent requirements to study the dynamics of tall buildings, towers, and bridges during earthquakes, wind-induced deformation and traffic loading. Dynamic measurements of relative displacements of structures is currently possible using real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning techniques, now advanced to record typically at 10-20 Hz (or higher - e.g., 100 Hz) with an accuracy of ±1 cm horizontally and ±2 cm vertically. With further advances in the technology and improvements in sampling capability, it is possible to meet the needs of real-time displacement information for the structural engineering community. After a decade of great strides in proving the feasibility of the technology, focus is moving to sensor integration and operational systems. Several investigators are now routinely researching the integration of GPS with other sensors (accelerometers, fibre optics, pseudolites, etc.) to utilise the complementary benefits and overcome limitations of the individual systems. Examples of real-time operational systems exist to demonstrate the significance of GPS technology in measuring the dynamic behaviour of large engineering structures.

The World Atlas of Desertification assessment concept for conscious land use solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherlet, Michael; Ivits, Eva; Kutnjak, Hrvoje; Smid, Marek; Sommer, Stefan; Zucca, Claudio

2015-04-01

Land degradation and desertification are complex phenomena that result in environmental damage, economic inefficiency and social inequity and are reflected by a reducing productive capacity of the land and soil. Research indicated that they are driven by a multiple but a limited number of causal aspects that unbalance the capacity of the environment system to sustainably produce ecosystem services and economic value. Competition for land, driven by societal needs or economic opportunities, adds further stress on the land resources. To address these complex global challenges, a monitoring and assessment system offering up-to-date information on the status and trends of land degradation and their causes and effects is needed to provide science-based routes for possible land use solutions. The assessment concept that has been outlined for the compilation of the new World Atlas of Desertification (WAD) confronts this complexity by converging evidence of stress on the land system caused by various issues. These issues relate to sets of dynamics of the human-environment system and include changing agricultural or pastoral land use and management practices, changing population and societal aspects, changing aridity and drought. The WAD describes the issues, spatially documents their change, whenever data is available, highlights the importance of the issues in relation to land degradation processes and illustrates the integrated assessment concepts. The first step is the preparation of solid global data layers that are related to, or express aspects that can be related to, land-system productivity dynamics and status. These can be used for identifying and evaluating the interaction of spatial variables with the land-system productivity dynamics. Initial analysis of the land productivity dynamics within stratified land cover/use areas, such as the global croplands, show substantial differences in the extension, geographic location and possible related causes of potentially critical areas. The stratified integration of global data layers does not produce the 'mythical map of global land degradation' but allows locating areas where stress on the land system is observed that can be related to manifest causal issues. Preventing judgement on the complex status of 'land degradation' the WAD opens the way to a positive approach to deal with the problem, providing also helpful evidence for stakeholders to design more conscious solutions for land use.

Repercussion of geometric and dynamic constraints on the 3D rendering quality in structurally adaptive multi-view shooting systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali-Bey, Mohamed; Moughamir, Saïd; Manamanni, Noureddine

2011-12-01

in this paper a simulator of a multi-view shooting system with parallel optical axes and structurally variable configuration is proposed. The considered system is dedicated to the production of 3D contents for auto-stereoscopic visualization. The global shooting/viewing geometrical process, which is the kernel of this shooting system, is detailed and the different viewing, transformation and capture parameters are then defined. An appropriate perspective projection model is afterward derived to work out a simulator. At first, this latter is used to validate the global geometrical process in the case of a static configuration. Next, the simulator is used to show the limitations of a static configuration of this shooting system type by considering the case of dynamic scenes and then a dynamic scheme is achieved to allow a correct capture of this kind of scenes. After that, the effect of the different geometrical capture parameters on the 3D rendering quality and the necessity or not of their adaptation is studied. Finally, some dynamic effects and their repercussions on the 3D rendering quality of dynamic scenes are analyzed using error images and some image quantization tools. Simulation and experimental results are presented throughout this paper to illustrate the different studied points. Some conclusions and perspectives end the paper. [Figure not available: see fulltext.

Modeling Climate Dynamically

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Jim; McGehee, Richard

2013-01-01

A dynamical systems approach to energy balance models of climate is presented, focusing on low order, or conceptual, models. Included are global average and latitude-dependent, surface temperature models. The development and analysis of the differential equations and corresponding bifurcation diagrams provides a host of appropriate material for…

Vision-based navigation in a dynamic environment for virtual human

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yan; Sun, Ji-Zhou; Zhang, Jia-Wan; Li, Ming-Chu

2004-06-01

Intelligent virtual human is widely required in computer games, ergonomics software, virtual environment and so on. We present a vision-based behavior modeling method to realize smart navigation in a dynamic environment. This behavior model can be divided into three modules: vision, global planning and local planning. Vision is the only channel for smart virtual actor to get information from the outside world. Then, the global and local planning module use A* and D* algorithm to find a way for virtual human in a dynamic environment. Finally, the experiments on our test platform (Smart Human System) verify the feasibility of this behavior model.

CADLIVE toolbox for MATLAB: automatic dynamic modeling of biochemical networks with comprehensive system analysis.

PubMed

Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki

2014-09-01

Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

El Niño/Southern Oscillation response to global warming

PubMed Central

Latif, M.; Keenlyside, N. S.

2009-01-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO2, accelerating global warming. PMID:19060210

El Nino/Southern Oscillation response to global warming.

PubMed

Latif, M; Keenlyside, N S

2009-12-08

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, originating in the Tropical Pacific, is the strongest natural interannual climate signal and has widespread effects on the global climate system and the ecology of the Tropical Pacific. Any strong change in ENSO statistics will therefore have serious climatic and ecological consequences. Most global climate models do simulate ENSO, although large biases exist with respect to its characteristics. The ENSO response to global warming differs strongly from model to model and is thus highly uncertain. Some models simulate an increase in ENSO amplitude, others a decrease, and others virtually no change. Extremely strong changes constituting tipping point behavior are not simulated by any of the models. Nevertheless, some interesting changes in ENSO dynamics can be inferred from observations and model integrations. Although no tipping point behavior is envisaged in the physical climate system, smooth transitions in it may give rise to tipping point behavior in the biological, chemical, and even socioeconomic systems. For example, the simulated weakening of the Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient in the Hadley Centre model (with dynamic vegetation included) caused rapid Amazon forest die-back in the mid-twenty-first century, which in turn drove a nonlinear increase in atmospheric CO(2), accelerating global warming.

The added value of dynamical downscaling in a climate change scenario simulation:A case study for European Alps and East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

2010-05-01

Since anthropogenic climate change is a rather important factor for the future human life all over the planet and its effects are not globally uniform, climate information at regional or local scales become more and more important for an accurate assessment of the potential impact of climate change on societies and ecosystems. High resolution information with suitably fine-scale for resolving complex geographical features could be a critical factor for successful linkage between climate models and impact assessment studies. However, scale mismatch between them still remains major problem. One method for overcoming the resolution limitations of global climate models and for adding regional details to coarse-grid global projections is to use dynamical downscaling by means of a regional climate model. In this study, the ECHAM5/MPI-OM (1.875 degree) A1B scenario simulation has been dynamically downscaled by using two different approaches within the framework of RegCM3 modeling system. First, a mosaic-type parameterization of subgrid-scale topography and land use (Sub-BATS) is applied over the European Alpine region. The Sub-BATS system is composed of 15 km coarse-grid cell and 3 km sub-grid cell. Second, we developed the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system, with the mother domain encompassing the eastern regions of Asia at 60 km grid spacing and the nested domain covering the Korean Peninsula at 20 km grid spacing. By comparing the regional climate model output and the driving global model ECHAM5/MPI-OM output, it is possible to estimate the added value of physically-based dynamical downscaling when for example impact studies at hydrological scale are performed.

ON THE UNIVERSALITY OF THE GLOBAL DENSITY SLOPE-ANISOTROPY INEQUALITY

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Hese, Emmanuel; Baes, Maarten; Dejonghe, Herwig, E-mail: emmanuel.vanhese@gmail.com, E-mail: maarten.baes@ugent.be, E-mail: herwig.dejonghe@ugent.be

2011-01-10

Recently, some intriguing results have led to speculations whether the central density slope-velocity dispersion anisotropy inequality (An and Evans) actually holds at all radii for spherical dynamical systems. We extend these studies by providing a complete analysis of the global slope-anisotropy inequality for all spherical systems in which the augmented density is a separable function of radius and potential. We prove that these systems indeed satisfy the global inequality if their central anisotropy is {beta}{sub 0} {<=} 1/2. Furthermore, we present several systems with {beta}{sub 0}>1/2 for which the inequality does not hold, thus demonstrating that the global density slope-anisotropymore » inequality is not a universal property. This analysis is a significant step toward an understanding of the relation for general spherical systems.« less

Inherent robustness of discrete-time adaptive control systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ma, C. C. H.

1986-01-01

Global stability robustness with respect to unmodeled dynamics, arbitrary bounded internal noise, as well as external disturbance is shown to exist for a class of discrete-time adaptive control systems when the regressor vectors of these systems are persistently exciting. Although fast adaptation is definitely undesirable, so far as attaining the greatest amount of global stability robustness is concerned, slow adaptation is shown to be not necessarily beneficial. The entire analysis in this paper holds for systems with slowly varying return difference matrices; the plants in these systems need not be slowly varying.

Land-related global habitability science issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1983-01-01

The scientific investigation of the viewpoint of the biosphere that living organisms and their physical and chemical environment are bound, inseparable parts of one set of closely coupled global processes of the global biogeochemical system, life and life support cycles, is discussed as one of the major scientific challenges of the next decade by building from understanding land processes to interdisciplinary, holistic studies of biospheric dynamics including human impacts.

Emergence of universal scaling in financial markets from mean-field dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vikram, S. V.; Sinha, Sitabhra

2011-01-01

Collective phenomena with universal properties have been observed in many complex systems with a large number of components. Here we present a microscopic model of the emergence of scaling behavior in such systems, where the interaction dynamics between individual components is mediated by a global variable making the mean-field description exact. Using the example of financial markets, we show that asset price can be such a global variable with the critical role of coordinating the actions of agents who are otherwise independent. The resulting model accurately reproduces empirical properties such as the universal scaling of the price fluctuation and volume distributions, long-range correlations in volatility, and multiscaling.

A novel role for visual perspective cues in the neural computation of depth.

PubMed

Kim, HyungGoo R; Angelaki, Dora E; DeAngelis, Gregory C

2015-01-01

As we explore a scene, our eye movements add global patterns of motion to the retinal image, complicating visual motion produced by self-motion or moving objects. Conventionally, it has been assumed that extraretinal signals, such as efference copy of smooth pursuit commands, are required to compensate for the visual consequences of eye rotations. We consider an alternative possibility: namely, that the visual system can infer eye rotations from global patterns of image motion. We visually simulated combinations of eye translation and rotation, including perspective distortions that change dynamically over time. We found that incorporating these 'dynamic perspective' cues allowed the visual system to generate selectivity for depth sign from motion parallax in macaque cortical area MT, a computation that was previously thought to require extraretinal signals regarding eye velocity. Our findings suggest neural mechanisms that analyze global patterns of visual motion to perform computations that require knowledge of eye rotations.

Hybrid Motion Planning with Multiple Destinations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clouse, Jeffery

1998-01-01

In our initial proposal, we laid plans for developing a hybrid motion planning system that combines the concepts of visibility-based motion planning, artificial potential field based motion planning, evolutionary constrained optimization, and reinforcement learning. Our goal was, and still is, to produce a hybrid motion planning system that outperforms the best traditional motion planning systems on problems with dynamic environments. The proposed hybrid system will be in two parts the first is a global motion planning system and the second is a local motion planning system. The global system will take global information about the environment, such as the placement of the obstacles and goals, and produce feasible paths through those obstacles. We envision a system that combines the evolutionary-based optimization and visibility-based motion planning to achieve this end.

The Interaction of Global Biochemical Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, B., III; Dastoor, M. N.

1984-01-01

The global biosphere in an exceedingly complex system. To gain an understanding of its structure and dynamic features, it is necessary not only to increase the knowledge about the detailed processes but also to develop models of how global interactions take place. Attempts to analyze the detailed physical, chemical and biological processes in this context need to be guided by an advancement of understanding of the latter. It is necessary to develop a strategy of data gathering that severs both these purposes simultaneously. The following papers deal with critical aspects in the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus and sulfur in details as well as the cycle of water and the flow of energy in the Earth's environment. The objective is to set partly the foundation for the development of mathematical models that allow exploration of the coupled dynamics of the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, as well as energy and water flux.

Maximum Lyapunov exponents as predictors of global gait stability: a modelling approach.

PubMed

Bruijn, Sjoerd M; Bregman, Daan J J; Meijer, Onno G; Beek, Peter J; van Dieën, Jaap H

2012-05-01

To examine the stability of human walking, methods such as local dynamic stability have been adopted from dynamical systems theory. Local dynamic stability is calculated by estimating maximal finite time Lyapunov exponents (λ(S) and λ(L)), which quantify how a system responds continuously to very small (i.e. "local") perturbations. However, it is unknown if, and to what extent, these measures are correlated to global stability, defined operationally as the probability of falling. We studied whether changes in probability of falling of a simple model of human walking (a so-called dynamic walker) could be predicted from maximum finite time Lyapunov exponents. We used an extended version of the simplest walking model with arced feet and a hip spring. This allowed us to change the probability of falling of the model by changing either the foot radius, the slope at which the model walks, the stiffness of the hip spring, or a combination of these factors. Results showed that λ(S) correlated fairly well with global stability, although this relationship was dependent upon differences in the distance between initial nearest neighbours on the divergence curve. A measure independent of such changes (the log(distance between initially nearest neighbours after 50 samples)) correlated better with global stability, and, more importantly, showed a more consistent relationship across conditions. In contrast, λ(L) showed either weak correlations, or correlations opposite to expected, thus casting doubt on the use of this measure as a predictor of global gait stability. Our findings support the use of λ(S), but not of λ(L), as measure of human gait stability. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Plant Uptake During Periods with no Photosynthesis Accounts for About Half of Global Annual Uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.; Tang, J.

2017-12-01

Uncertainties in current Earth System Model (ESM) predictions of terrestrial carbon-climate feedbacks over the 21st century are as large as, or larger than, any other reported natural system uncertainties. Soil Organic Matter (SOM) decomposition and photosynthesis, the dominant fluxes in this regard, are tightly linked through nutrient availability, and the recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) used for climate change assessment had no credible representations of these constraints. In response, many ESM land models (ESMLMs) have developed dynamic and coupled soil and plant nutrient cycles. Here we quantify terrestrial carbon cycle impacts from well-known observed plant nutrient uptake mechanisms ignored in most current ESMLMs. In particular, we estimate the global role of plant root nutrient competition with microbes and abiotic process at night and during the non-growing season using the ACME land model (ALMv1-ECA-CNP) that explicitly represents these dynamics. We first demonstrate that short-term nutrient uptake dynamics and competition between plants and microbes are accurately predicted by the model compared to 15N and 33P isotopic tracer measurements from more than 20 sites. We then show that global nighttime and non-growing season nitrogen and phosphorus uptake accounts for 46 and 45%, respectively, of annual uptake, with large latitudinal variation. Model experiments show that ignoring these plant uptake periods leads to large positive biases in annual N leaching (globally 58%) and N2O emissions (globally 68%). Biases these large will affect modeled carbon cycle dynamics over time, and lead to predictions of ecosystems that have overly open nutrient cycles and therefore lower capacity to sequester carbon.

Priority in Process Algebras

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cleaveland, Rance; Luettgen, Gerald; Natarajan, V.

1999-01-01

This paper surveys the semantic ramifications of extending traditional process algebras with notions of priority that allow for some transitions to be given precedence over others. These enriched formalisms allow one to model system features such as interrupts, prioritized choice, or real-time behavior. Approaches to priority in process algebras can be classified according to whether the induced notion of preemption on transitions is global or local and whether priorities are static or dynamic. Early work in the area concentrated on global pre-emption and static priorities and led to formalisms for modeling interrupts and aspects of real-time, such as maximal progress, in centralized computing environments. More recent research has investigated localized notions of pre-emption in which the distribution of systems is taken into account, as well as dynamic priority approaches, i.e., those where priority values may change as systems evolve. The latter allows one to model behavioral phenomena such as scheduling algorithms and also enables the efficient encoding of real-time semantics. Technically, this paper studies the different models of priorities by presenting extensions of Milner's Calculus of Communicating Systems (CCS) with static and dynamic priority as well as with notions of global and local pre- emption. In each case the operational semantics of CCS is modified appropriately, behavioral theories based on strong and weak bisimulation are given, and related approaches for different process-algebraic settings are discussed.

The Global Distribution of Precipitation and Clouds. Chapter 2.4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shepherd, J. Marshall; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Rossow, William; Ritter, Michael; Curtis, Scott

2004-01-01

The water cycle is the key circuit moving water through the Earth's system. This large system, powered by energy from the sun, is a continuous exchange of moisture between the oceans, the atmosphere, and the land. Precipitation (including rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, and hail), is the primary mechanism for transporting water from the atmosphere back to the Earth's surface and is the key physical process that links aspects of climate, weather, and the global water cycle. Global precipitation and associate cloud processes are critical for understanding the water cycle balance on a global scale and interactions with the Earth's climate system. However, unlike measurement of less dynamic and more homogenous meteorological fields such as pressure or even temperature, accurate assessment of global precipitation is particularly challenging due to its highly stochastic and rapidly changing nature. It is not uncommon to observe a broad spectrum of precipitation rates and distributions over very localized time scales. Furthermore, precipitating systems generally exhibit nonhomogeneous spatial distributions of rain rates over local to global domains.

Hierarchic spatio-temporal dynamics in glycolysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinjyo, Takahiro; Nakagawa, Yoshiyuki; Ueda, Tetsuo

Yeast extracts exhibit oscillations when the glycolytic system is far away from equilibrium. Spatio-temporal dynamics in this system was studied in the newly developed gel as well as in the solution. Small regions (about 10 um) with very complex shape with high or low concentrations of NADH appeared, and upon these small structures large-scale dynamics were superimposed. Concentration waves propagated, and the source of wave was induced by contact with high ADP. Sink of waves was generated by contacting the reaction gel to two small gels rich in ADP. Upon these spatio-temporal dynamics were superimposed much slower global oscillations throughout the system with a period of about 40 min. Similar dynamics was seen in a solution of yeast extract, but the size of domains was about ten times larger than that in the gel. In this way, the multi-enzyme system of glycolysis exhibits self-organization of hierarchy in spatio-temporal dynamics.

A global "imaging'' view on systems approaches in immunology.

PubMed

Ludewig, Burkhard; Stein, Jens V; Sharpe, James; Cervantes-Barragan, Luisa; Thiel, Volker; Bocharov, Gennady

2012-12-01

The immune system exhibits an enormous complexity. High throughput methods such as the "-omic'' technologies generate vast amounts of data that facilitate dissection of immunological processes at ever finer resolution. Using high-resolution data-driven systems analysis, causal relationships between complex molecular processes and particular immunological phenotypes can be constructed. However, processes in tissues, organs, and the organism itself (so-called higher level processes) also control and regulate the molecular (lower level) processes. Reverse systems engineering approaches, which focus on the examination of the structure, dynamics and control of the immune system, can help to understand the construction principles of the immune system. Such integrative mechanistic models can properly describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the immune system in health and disease by combining both higher and lower level processes. Moving from molecular and cellular levels to a multiscale systems understanding requires the development of methodologies that integrate data from different biological levels into multiscale mechanistic models. In particular, 3D imaging techniques and 4D modeling of the spatiotemporal dynamics of immune processes within lymphoid tissues are central for such integrative approaches. Both dynamic and global organ imaging technologies will be instrumental in facilitating comprehensive multiscale systems immunology analyses as discussed in this review. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Substrate clamping effects on irreversible domain wall dynamics in lead zirconate titanate thin films.

PubMed

Griggio, F; Jesse, S; Kumar, A; Ovchinnikov, O; Kim, H; Jackson, T N; Damjanovic, D; Kalinin, S V; Trolier-McKinstry, S

2012-04-13

The role of long-range strain interactions on domain wall dynamics is explored through macroscopic and local measurements of nonlinear behavior in mechanically clamped and released polycrystalline lead zirconate-titanate (PZT) films. Released films show a dramatic change in the global dielectric nonlinearity and its frequency dependence as a function of mechanical clamping. Furthermore, we observe a transition from strong clustering of the nonlinear response for the clamped case to almost uniform nonlinearity for the released film. This behavior is ascribed to increased mobility of domain walls. These results suggest the dominant role of collective strain interactions mediated by the local and global mechanical boundary conditions on the domain wall dynamics. The work presented in this Letter demonstrates that measurements on clamped films may considerably underestimate the piezoelectric coefficients and coupling constants of released structures used in microelectromechanical systems, energy harvesting systems, and microrobots.

Persistence of Soil Organic Carbon can be Explained as an Emergent Property of Microbial Ecology and Population Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolf, D.; Lehmann, J.

2016-12-01

The exchange of carbon between soils and the atmosphere represents an important uncertainty in climate predictions. Current Earth system models apply soil organic matter (SOM) models based on independent carbon pools with 1st order decomposition dynamics. It has been widely argued over the last decade that such models do not accurately describe soil processes and mechanisms. For example, the long term persistence of soil organic carbon (SOC) is only adequately described by such models by the post hoc assumption of passive or inert carbon pools. Further, such 1st order models also fail to account for microbially-mediated dynamics such as priming interactions. These shortcomings may limit their applicability to long term predictions under conditions of global environmental change. In addition to incorporating recent conceptual advances in the mechanisms of SOM decomposition and protection, next-generation SOM models intended for use in Earth system models need to meet further quality criteria. Namely, that they should (a) accurately describe historical data from long term trials and the current global distribution of soil organic carbon, (b) be computationally efficient for large number of iterations involved in climate modeling, and (c) have sufficiently simple parameterization that they can be run on spatially-explicit data available at global scale under varying conditions of global change over long time scales. Here we show that linking fundamental ecological principles and microbial population dynamics to SOC turnover rates results in a dynamic model that meets all of these quality criteria. This approach simultaneously eliminates the need to postulate biogeochemically-implausible passive or inert pools, instead showing how SOM persistence emerges from ecological principles, while also reproducing observed priming interactions.

A Thermodynamic Approach to Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Modeling: From Metabolic Biochemical Processes to Water-Carbon-Nitrogen Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clavijo, H. W.

2016-12-01

Modeling the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum has been central part of understanding interrelationships among biogeochemical and hydrological processes. Theory behind of couplings Land Surface Models (LSM) and Dynamical Global Vegetation Models (DGVM) are based on physical and physiological processes connected by input-output interactions mainly. This modeling framework could be improved by the application of non-equilibrium thermodynamic basis that could encompass the majority of biophysical processes in a standard fashion. This study presents an alternative model for plant-water-atmosphere based on energy-mass thermodynamics. The system of dynamic equations derived is based on the total entropy, the total energy balance for the plant, the biomass dynamics at metabolic level and the water-carbon-nitrogen fluxes and balances. One advantage of this formulation is the capability to describe adaptation and evolution of dynamics of plant as a bio-system coupled to the environment. Second, it opens a window for applications on specific conditions from individual plant scale, to watershed scale, to global scale. Third, it enhances the possibility of analyzing anthropogenic impacts on the system, benefiting from the mathematical formulation and its non-linearity. This non-linear model formulation is analyzed under the concepts of qualitative system dynamics theory, for different state-space phase portraits. The attractors and sources are pointed out with its stability analysis. Possibility of bifurcations are explored and reported. Simulations for the system dynamics under different conditions are presented. These results show strong consistency and applicability that validates the use of the non-equilibrium thermodynamic theory.

Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

PubMed

Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

2014-01-01

We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamics of Numerics & Spurious Behaviors in CFD Computations. Revised

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, Helen C.; Sweby, Peter K.

1997-01-01

The global nonlinear behavior of finite discretizations for constant time steps and fixed or adaptive grid spacings is studied using tools from dynamical systems theory. Detailed analysis of commonly used temporal and spatial discretizations for simple model problems is presented. The role of dynamics in the understanding of long time behavior of numerical integration and the nonlinear stability, convergence, and reliability of using time-marching approaches for obtaining steady-state numerical solutions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is explored. The study is complemented with examples of spurious behavior observed in steady and unsteady CFD computations. The CFD examples were chosen to illustrate non-apparent spurious behavior that was difficult to detect without extensive grid and temporal refinement studies and some knowledge from dynamical systems theory. Studies revealed the various possible dangers of misinterpreting numerical simulation of realistic complex flows that are constrained by available computing power. In large scale computations where the physics of the problem under study is not well understood and numerical simulations are the only viable means of solution, extreme care must be taken in both computation and interpretation of the numerical data. The goal of this paper is to explore the important role that dynamical systems theory can play in the understanding of the global nonlinear behavior of numerical algorithms and to aid the identification of the sources of numerical uncertainties in CFD.

A model for cross-cultural reciprocal interactions through mass media.

PubMed

González-Avella, Juan Carlos; Cosenza, Mario G; San Miguel, Maxi

2012-01-01

We investigate the problem of cross-cultural interactions through mass media in a model where two populations of social agents, each with its own internal dynamics, get information about each other through reciprocal global interactions. As the agent dynamics, we employ Axelrod's model for social influence. The global interaction fields correspond to the statistical mode of the states of the agents and represent mass media messages on the cultural trend originating in each population. Several phases are found in the collective behavior of either population depending on parameter values: two homogeneous phases, one having the state of the global field acting on that population, and the other consisting of a state different from that reached by the applied global field; and a disordered phase. In addition, the system displays nontrivial effects: (i) the emergence of a largest minority group of appreciable size sharing a state different from that of the applied global field; (ii) the appearance of localized ordered states for some values of parameters when the entire system is observed, consisting of one population in a homogeneous state and the other in a disordered state. This last situation can be considered as a social analogue to a chimera state arising in globally coupled populations of oscillators.

PID position regulation in one-degree-of-freedom Euler-Lagrange systems actuated by a PMSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verastegui-Galván, J.; Hernández-Guzmán, V. M.; Orrante-Sakanassi, J.

2018-02-01

This paper is concerned with position regulation in one-degree-of-freedom Euler-Lagrange Systems. We consider that the mechanical subsystem is actuated by a permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM). Our proposal consists of a Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) controller for the mechanical subsystem and a slight variation of field oriented control for the PMSM. We take into account the motor electric dynamics during the stability analysis. We present, for the first time, a global asymptotic stability proof for such a control scheme without requiring the mechanical subsystem to naturally possess viscous friction. Finally, as a corollary of our main result we prove global asymptotic stability for output feedback PID regulation of one-degree-of-freedom Euler-Lagrange systems when generated torque is considered as the system input, i.e. when the electric dynamics of PMSM's is not taken into account.

Chimeras and clusters in networks of hyperbolic chaotic oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cano, A. V.; Cosenza, M. G.

2017-03-01

We show that chimera states, where differentiated subsets of synchronized and desynchronized dynamical elements coexist, can emerge in networks of hyperbolic chaotic oscillators subject to global interactions. As local dynamics we employ Lozi maps, which possess hyperbolic chaotic attractors. We consider a globally coupled system of these maps and use two statistical quantities to describe its collective behavior: the average fraction of elements belonging to clusters and the average standard deviation of state variables. Chimera states, clusters, complete synchronization, and incoherence are thus characterized on the space of parameters of the system. We find that chimera states are related to the formation of clusters in the system. In addition, we show that chimera states arise for a sufficiently long range of interactions in nonlocally coupled networks of these maps. Our results reveal that, under some circumstances, hyperbolicity does not impede the formation of chimera states in networks of coupled chaotic systems, as it had been previously hypothesized.

Chaos in plasma simulation and experiment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watts, C.; Newman, D.E.; Sprott, J.C.

1993-09-01

We investigate the possibility that chaos and simple determinism are governing the dynamics of reversed field pinch (RFP) plasmas using data from both numerical simulations and experiment. A large repertoire of nonlinear analysis techniques is used to identify low dimensional chaos. These tools include phase portraits and Poincard sections, correlation dimension, the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents and short term predictability. In addition, nonlinear noise reduction techniques are applied to the experimental data in an attempt to extract any underlying deterministic dynamics. Two model systems are used to simulate the plasma dynamics. These are -the DEBS code, which models global RFPmore » dynamics, and the dissipative trapped electron mode (DTEM) model, which models drift wave turbulence. Data from both simulations show strong indications of low,dimensional chaos and simple determinism. Experimental data were obtained from the Madison Symmetric Torus RFP and consist of a wide array of both global and local diagnostic signals. None of the signals shows any indication of low dimensional chaos or other simple determinism. Moreover, most of the analysis tools indicate the experimental system is very high dimensional with properties similar to noise. Nonlinear noise reduction is unsuccessful at extracting an underlying deterministic system.« less

DCMIP2016: a review of non-hydrostatic dynamical core design and intercomparison of participating models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullrich, Paul A.; Jablonowski, Christiane; Kent, James; Lauritzen, Peter H.; Nair, Ramachandran; Reed, Kevin A.; Zarzycki, Colin M.; Hall, David M.; Dazlich, Don; Heikes, Ross; Konor, Celal; Randall, David; Dubos, Thomas; Meurdesoif, Yann; Chen, Xi; Harris, Lucas; Kühnlein, Christian; Lee, Vivian; Qaddouri, Abdessamad; Girard, Claude; Giorgetta, Marco; Reinert, Daniel; Klemp, Joseph; Park, Sang-Hun; Skamarock, William; Miura, Hiroaki; Ohno, Tomoki; Yoshida, Ryuji; Walko, Robert; Reinecke, Alex; Viner, Kevin

2017-12-01

Atmospheric dynamical cores are a fundamental component of global atmospheric modeling systems and are responsible for capturing the dynamical behavior of the Earth's atmosphere via numerical integration of the Navier-Stokes equations. These systems have existed in one form or another for over half of a century, with the earliest discretizations having now evolved into a complex ecosystem of algorithms and computational strategies. In essence, no two dynamical cores are alike, and their individual successes suggest that no perfect model exists. To better understand modern dynamical cores, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of 11 non-hydrostatic dynamical cores, drawn from modeling centers and groups that participated in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP) workshop and summer school. This review includes a choice of model grid, variable placement, vertical coordinate, prognostic equations, temporal discretization, and the diffusion, stabilization, filters, and fixers employed by each system.

The profound reach of the 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake: Short‐term global triggering followed by a longer‐term global shadow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, Fred; Burgmann, Roland; Stein, Ross S.; Sevilgen, Volkan

2014-01-01

The 11 April 2012 M 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake was an unusually large intraoceanic strike‐slip event. For several days, the global M≥4.5 and M≥6.5 seismicity rate at remote distances (i.e., thousands of kilometers from the mainshock) was elevated. The strike‐slip mainshock appears through its Love waves to have triggered a global burst of strike‐slip aftershocks over several days. But the M≥6.5 rate subsequently dropped to zero for the succeeding 95 days, although the M≤6.0 global rate was close to background during this period. Such an extended period without an M≥6.5 event has happened rarely over the past century, and never after a large mainshock. Quiescent periods following previous large (M≥8) mainshocks over the past century are either much shorter or begin so long after a given mainshock that no physical interpretation is warranted. The 2012 mainshock is unique in terms of both the short‐lived global increase and subsequent long quiescent period. We believe that the two components are linked and interpret this pattern as the product of dynamic stressing of a global system of faults. Transient dynamic stresses can encourage short‐term triggering, but, paradoxically, it can also inhibit rupture temporarily until background tectonic loading restores the system to its premainshock stress levels.

Global Culture: A Noise Induced Transition in Finite Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klemm, Konstantin; Eguíluz, Victor M.; Toral, Raúl; San Miguel, Maxi

2003-04-01

We analyze Axelrod's model for the unbiased transmission of culture in the presence of noise. In a one-dimensional lattice, the dynamics is described in terms of a Lyapunov potential, where the disordered configurations are metastable states of the dynamics. In a two-dimensional lattice the dynamics is governed by the average relaxation time T for perturbations to the homogeneous configuration. If the noise rate is smaller than 1/T, the perturbations drive the system to a completely ordered configuration, whereas the system remains disordered for larger noise rates. Based on a mean-field approximation we obtain the average relaxation time T(N) = Nln(N) for system size N. Thus in the limit of infinite system size the system is disordered for any finite noise rate.

Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

2018-03-01

Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

Global dynamics for switching systems and their extensions by linear differential equations.

PubMed

Huttinga, Zane; Cummins, Bree; Gedeon, Tomáš; Mischaikow, Konstantin

2018-03-15

Switching systems use piecewise constant nonlinearities to model gene regulatory networks. This choice provides advantages in the analysis of behavior and allows the global description of dynamics in terms of Morse graphs associated to nodes of a parameter graph. The parameter graph captures spatial characteristics of a decomposition of parameter space into domains with identical Morse graphs. However, there are many cellular processes that do not exhibit threshold-like behavior and thus are not well described by a switching system. We consider a class of extensions of switching systems formed by a mixture of switching interactions and chains of variables governed by linear differential equations. We show that the parameter graphs associated to the switching system and any of its extensions are identical. For each parameter graph node, there is an order-preserving map from the Morse graph of the switching system to the Morse graph of any of its extensions. We provide counterexamples that show why possible stronger relationships between the Morse graphs are not valid.

High dynamic GPS receiver validation demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hurd, W. J.; Statman, J. I.; Vilnrotter, V. A.

1985-01-01

The Validation Demonstration establishes that the high dynamic Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver concept developed at JPL meets the dynamic tracking requirements for range instrumentation of missiles and drones. It was demonstrated that the receiver can track the pseudorange and pseudorange rate of vehicles with acceleration in excess of 100 g and jerk in excess of 100 g/s, dynamics ten times more severe than specified for conventional High Dynamic GPS receivers. These results and analytic extensions to a complete system configuration establish that all range instrumentation requirements can be met. The receiver can be implemented in the 100 cu in volume required by all missiles and drones, and is ideally suited for transdigitizer or translator applications.

Global optimization for quantum dynamics of few-fermion systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xikun; Pecak, Daniel; Sowiński, Tomasz; Sherson, Jacob; Nielsen, Anne E. B.

2018-03-01

Quantum state preparation is vital to quantum computation and quantum information processing tasks. In adiabatic state preparation, the target state is theoretically obtained with nearly perfect fidelity if the control parameter is tuned slowly enough. As this, however, leads to slow dynamics, it is often desirable to be able to carry out processes more rapidly. In this work, we employ two global optimization methods to estimate the quantum speed limit for few-fermion systems confined in a one-dimensional harmonic trap. Such systems can be produced experimentally in a well-controlled manner. We determine the optimized control fields and achieve a reduction in the ramping time of more than a factor of four compared to linear ramping. We also investigate how robust the fidelity is to small variations of the control fields away from the optimized shapes.

Global solutions to a class of multi-species reaction-diffusion systems with cross-diffusions arising in population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Zijuan; Fu, Shengmao

2009-08-01

In this paper, an n-species strongly coupled cooperating diffusive system is considered in a bounded smooth domain, subject to homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Employing the method of energy estimates, we obtain some conditions on the diffusion matrix and inter-specific cooperatives to ensure the global existence and uniform boundedness of a nonnegative solution. The globally asymptotical stability of the constant positive steady state is also discussed. As a consequence, all the results hold true for multi-species Lotka-Volterra type competition model and prey-predator model.

Earth observing satellite: Understanding the Earth as a system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald

1990-01-01

There is now a plan for global studies which include two very large efforts. One is the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program (IGBP) sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions. The other initiative is Mission to Planet Earth, an unbrella program for doing three kinds of space missions. The major one is the Earth Observation Satellite (EOS). EOS is large polar orbiting satellites with heavy payloads. Two will be placed in orbit by NASA, one by the Japanese and one or two by ESA. The overall mission measurement objectives of EOS are summarized: (1) the global distribution of energy input to and energy output from the Earth; (2) the structure, state variables, composition, and dynamics of the atmosphere from the ground to the mesopause; (3) the physical and biological structure, state, composition, and dynamics of the land surface, including terrestrial and inland water ecosystems; (4) the rates, important sources and sinks, and key components and processes of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles; (5) the circulation, surface temperature, wind stress, sea state, and the biological activity of the oceans; (6) the extent, type, state, elevation, roughness, and dynamics of glaciers, ice sheets, snow and sea ice, and the liquid equivalent of snow in the global cryosphere; (7) the global rates, amounts, and distribution of precipitation; and (8) the dynamic motions of the Earth (geophysics) as a whole, including both rotational dynamics and the kinematic motions of the tectonic plates.

Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

2014-12-01

The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations. Biogeosciences Discuss 2014, 11:7151-7188. Bond-Lamberty, B et al: Coupling earth system and integrated assessment models: The problem of steady state. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss 2014, 7: 1499-1524, doi:10.5194/gmdd-7-1499-2014.

Vibration signature analysis of multistage gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Tu, Y. K.; Savage, M.; Townsend, D. P.

1989-01-01

An analysis is presented for multistage multimesh gear transmission systems. The analysis predicts the overall system dynamics and the transmissibility to the gear box or the enclosed structure. The modal synthesis approach of the analysis treats the uncoupled lateral/torsional model characteristics of each stage or component independently. The vibration signature analysis evaluates the global dynamics coupling in the system. The method synthesizes the interaction of each modal component or stage with the nonlinear gear mesh dynamics and the modal support geometry characteristics. The analysis simulates transient and steady state vibration events to determine the resulting torque variations, speeds, changes, rotor imbalances, and support gear box motion excitations. A vibration signature analysis examines the overall dynamic characteristics of the system, and the individual model component responses. The gear box vibration analysis also examines the spectral characteristics of the support system.

Dynamic Analysis and Adaptive Sliding Mode Controller for a Chaotic Fractional Incommensurate Order Financial System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajipour, Ahmad; Tavakoli, Hamidreza

2017-12-01

In this study, the dynamic behavior and chaos control of a chaotic fractional incommensurate-order financial system are investigated. Using well-known tools of nonlinear theory, i.e. Lyapunov exponents, phase diagrams and bifurcation diagrams, we observe some interesting phenomena, e.g. antimonotonicity, crisis phenomena and route to chaos through a period doubling sequence. Adopting largest Lyapunov exponent criteria, we find that the system yields chaos at the lowest order of 2.15. Next, in order to globally stabilize the chaotic fractional incommensurate order financial system with uncertain dynamics, an adaptive fractional sliding mode controller is designed. Numerical simulations are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

Water circulation and global mantle dynamics: Insight from numerical modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Takashi; Nakakuki, Tomoeki; Iwamori, Hikaru

2015-05-01

We investigate water circulation and its dynamical effects on global-scale mantle dynamics in numerical thermochemical mantle convection simulations. Both dehydration-hydration processes and dehydration melting are included. We also assume the rheological properties of hydrous minerals and density reduction caused by hydrous minerals. Heat transfer due to mantle convection seems to be enhanced more effectively than water cycling in the mantle convection system when reasonable water dependence of viscosity is assumed, due to effective slab dehydration at shallow depths. Water still affects significantly the global dynamics by weakening the near-surface oceanic crust and lithosphere, enhancing the activity of surface plate motion compared to dry mantle case. As a result, including hydrous minerals, the more viscous mantle is expected with several orders of magnitude compared to the dry mantle. The average water content in the whole mantle is regulated by the dehydration-hydration process. The large-scale thermochemical anomalies, as is observed in the deep mantle, is found when a large density contrast between basaltic material and ambient mantle is assumed (4-5%), comparable to mineral physics measurements. Through this study, the effects of hydrous minerals in mantle dynamics are very important for interpreting the observational constraints on mantle convection.

Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics

PubMed Central

Perry, Brian D.; Grace, Delia; Sones, Keith

2013-01-01

We review the global dynamics of livestock disease over the last two decades. Our imperfect ability to detect and report disease hinders assessment of trends, but we suggest that, although endemic diseases continue their historic decline in wealthy countries, poor countries experience static or deteriorating animal health and epidemic diseases show both regression and expansion. At a mesolevel, disease is changing in terms of space and host, which is illustrated by bluetongue, Lyme disease, and West Nile virus, and it is also emerging, as illustrated by highly pathogenic avian influenza and others. Major proximate drivers of change in disease dynamics include ecosystem change, ecosystem incursion, and movements of people and animals; underlying these are demographic change and an increasing demand for livestock products. We identify three trajectories of global disease dynamics: (i) the worried well in developed countries (demanding less risk while broadening the circle of moral concern), (ii) the intensifying and market-orientated systems of many developing countries, where highly complex disease patterns create hot spots for disease shifts, and (iii) the neglected cold spots in poor countries, where rapid change in disease dynamics is less likely but smallholders and pastoralists continue to struggle with largely preventable and curable livestock diseases. PMID:21576468

Global dynamics and diffusion in triaxial galactic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papaphilippou, Y.

We apply the Frequency Map Analysis method to the 3--dimensional logarithmic galactic potential in order to clarify the dynamical behaviour of triaxial power--law galactic models. All the fine dynamical details are displayed in the complete frequency map, a direct representation of the system's Arnol'd web. The influence of resonant lines and the extent of the chaotic zones are directly associated with the physical space of the system. Some new results related with the diffusion of galactic orbits are also discussed. This approach reveals many unknown dynamical features of triaxial galactic potentials and provides strong indications that chaos should be an innate characteristic of triaxial configurations.

Towards a unified Global Weather-Climate Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, S. J.

2016-12-01

The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory has been developing a unified regional-global modeling system with variable resolution capabilities that can be used for severe weather predictions and kilometer scale regional climate simulations within a unified global modeling system. The foundation of this flexible modeling system is the nonhydrostatic Finite-Volume Dynamical Core on the Cubed-Sphere (FV3). A unique aspect of FV3 is that it is "vertically Lagrangian" (Lin 2004), essentially reducing the equation sets to two dimensions, and is the single most important reason why FV3 outperforms other non-hydrostatic cores. Owning to its accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency, the FV3 has been selected as the "engine" for NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS). We have built into the modeling system a stretched grid, a two-way regional-global nested grid, and an optimal combination of the stretched and two-way nests capability, making kilometer-scale regional simulations within a global modeling system feasible. Our main scientific goal is to enable simulations of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously regarded as impossible. In this presentation I will demonstrate that, with the FV3, it is computationally feasible to simulate not only super-cell thunderstorms, but also the subsequent genesis of tornado-like vortices using a global model that was originally designed for climate simulations. The development and tuning strategy between traditional weather and climate models are fundamentally different due to different metrics. We were able to adapt and use traditional "climate" metrics or standards, such as angular momentum conservation, energy conservation, and flux balance at top of the atmosphere, and gain insight into problems of traditional weather prediction model for medium-range weather prediction, and vice versa. Therefore, the unification in weather and climate models can happen not just at the algorithm or parameterization level, but also in the metric and tuning strategy used for both applications, and ultimately, with benefits to both weather and climate applications.

The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability.

PubMed

Krapivin, Vladimir F; Varotsos, Costas A; Soldatov, Vladimir Yu

2017-08-07

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled "nature-society system (NSS) model", through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

Stability of a general delayed virus dynamics model with humoral immunity and cellular infection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elaiw, A. M.; Raezah, A. A.; Alofi, A. S.

2017-06-01

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical behavior of a general nonlinear model for virus dynamics with virus-target and infected-target incidences. The model incorporates humoral immune response and distributed time delays. The model is a four dimensional system of delay differential equations where the production and removal rates of the virus and cells are given by general nonlinear functions. We derive the basic reproduction parameter R˜0 G and the humoral immune response activation number R˜1 G and establish a set of conditions on the general functions which are sufficient to determine the global dynamics of the models. We use suitable Lyapunov functionals and apply LaSalle's invariance principle to prove the global asymptotic stability of the all equilibria of the model. We confirm the theoretical results by numerical simulations.

Evolving Multi Rover Systems in Dynamic and Noisy Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Agogino, Adrian

2005-01-01

In this chapter, we address how to evolve control strategies for a collective: a set of entities that collectively strives to maximize a global evaluation function that rates the performance of the full system. Addressing such problems by directly applying a global evolutionary algorithm to a population of collectives is unworkable because the search space is prohibitively large. Instead, we focus on evolving control policies for each member of the collective, where each member is trying to maximize the fitness of its own population. The main difficulty with this approach is creating fitness evaluation functions for the members of the collective that induce the collective to achieve high performance with respect to the system level goal. To overcome this difficulty, we derive member evaluation functions that are both aligned with the global evaluation function (ensuring that members trying to achieve high fitness results in a collective with high fitness) and sensitive to the fitness of each member (a member's fitness depends more on its own actions than on actions of other members). In a difficult rover coordination problem in dynamic and noisy environments, we show how to construct evaluation functions that lead to good collective behavior. The control policy evolved using aligned and member-sensitive evaluations outperforms global evaluation methods by up to a factor of four. in addition we show that the collective continues to perform well in the presence of high noise levels and when the environment is highly dynamic. More notably, in the presence of a larger number of rovers or rovers with noisy sensors, the improvements due to the proposed method become significantly more pronounced.

Global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the nitrate leaching and crop yield simulation under different water and nitrogen management practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural system models have become important tools in studying water and nitrogen (N) dynamics, as well as crop growth, under different management practices. Complexity in input parameters often leads to significant uncertainty when simulating dynamic processes such as nitrate leaching or crop y...

Global Well-Posedness of the NLS System for Infinitely Many Fermions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Thomas; Hong, Younghun; Pavlović, Nataša

2017-04-01

In this paper, we study the mean field quantum fluctuation dynamics for a system of infinitely many fermions with delta pair interactions in the vicinity of an equilibrium solution (the Fermi sea) at zero temperature, in dimensions d = 2, 3, and prove global well-posedness of the corresponding Cauchy problem. Our work extends some of the recent important results obtained by Lewin and Sabin in [33,34], who addressed this problem for more regular pair interactions.

Cosmological dynamics with non-minimally coupled scalar field and a constant potential function

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hrycyna, Orest; Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: orest.hrycyna@ncbj.gov.pl, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl

2015-11-01

Dynamical systems methods are used to investigate global behaviour of the spatially flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmological model in gravitational theory with a non-minimally coupled scalar field and a constant potential function. We show that the system can be reduced to an autonomous three-dimensional dynamical system and additionally is equipped with an invariant manifold corresponding to an accelerated expansion of the universe. Using this invariant manifold we find an exact solution of the reduced dynamics. We investigate all solutions for all admissible initial conditions using theory of dynamical systems to obtain a classification of all evolutional paths. The right-hand sides of themore » dynamical system depend crucially on the value of the non-minimal coupling constant therefore we study bifurcation values of this parameter under which the structure of the phase space changes qualitatively. We found a special bifurcation value of the non-minimal coupling constant which is distinguished by dynamics of the model and may suggest some additional symmetry in matter sector of the theory.« less

Critical carbon input to maintain current soil organic carbon stocks in global wheat systems

PubMed Central

Wang, Guocheng; Luo, Zhongkui; Han, Pengfei; Chen, Huansheng; Xu, Jingjing

2016-01-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in croplands is a crucial component of global carbon (C) cycle. Depending on local environmental conditions and management practices, typical C input is generally required to reduce or reverse C loss in agricultural soils. No studies have quantified the critical C input for maintaining SOC at global scale with high resolution. Such information will provide a baseline map for assessing soil C dynamics under potential changes in management practices and climate, and thus enable development of management strategies to reduce C footprint from farm to regional scales. We used the soil C model RothC to simulate the critical C input rates needed to maintain existing soil C level at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution in global wheat systems. On average, the critical C input was estimated to be 2.0 Mg C ha−1 yr−1, with large spatial variability depending on local soil and climatic conditions. Higher C inputs are required in wheat system of central United States and western Europe, mainly due to the higher current soil C stocks present in these regions. The critical C input could be effectively estimated using a summary model driven by current SOC level, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and soil clay content. PMID:26759192

Quantified carbon input for maintaining existing soil organic carbon stocks in global wheat systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in croplands is a crucial component of global carbon (C) cycle. Depending on local environmental conditions and management practices, typical C input is generally required to reduce or reverse C loss in agricultural soils. No studies have quantified the critical C input for maintaining SOC at global scale with high resolution. Such information will provide a baseline map for assessing soil C dynamics under potential changes in management practices and climate, and thus enable development of management strategies to reduce C footprint from farm to regional scales. We used the soil C model RothC to simulate the critical C input rates needed to maintain existing soil C level at 0.1°× 0.1° resolution in global wheat systems. On average, the critical C input was estimated to be 2.0 Mg C ha-1 yr-1, with large spatial variability depending on local soil and climatic conditions. Higher C inputs are required in wheat system of central United States and western Europe, mainly due to the higher current soil C stocks present in these regions. The critical C input could be effectively estimated using a summary model driven by current SOC level, mean annual temperature, precipitation, and soil clay content.

Steadily oscillating axial bands of binary granules in a nearly filled coaxial cylinder.

PubMed

Inagaki, Shio; Ebata, Hiroyuki; Yoshikawa, Kenichi

2015-01-01

Granular materials often segregate under mechanical agitation such as flowing, shaking, or rotating, in contrast to an expectation of mixing. It is well known that bidisperse mixtures of granular materials in a partially filled rotating cylinder exhibit monotonic coarsening dynamics of segregation. Here we report the steady oscillation of segregated axial bands under the stationary rotation of a nearly filled coaxial cylinder for O(10(3)) revolutions. The axial bands demonstrate steady back-and-forth motion along the axis of rotation. Experimental findings indicated that these axial band dynamics are driven by global convection throughout the system. The essential features of the spatiotemporal dynamics are reproduced with a simple phenomenological equation that incorporates the effect of global convection.

Near-optimal strategies for sub-decimeter satellite tracking with GPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yunck, Thomas P.; Wu, Sien-Chong; Wu, Jiun-Tsong

1986-01-01

Decimeter tracking of low Earth orbiters using differential Global Positioning System (GPS) techniques is discussed. A precisely known global network of GPS ground receivers and a receiver aboard the user satellite are needed, and all techniques simultaneously estimate the user and GPS satellite orbits. Strategies include a purely geometric, a fully dynamic, and a hybrid strategy. The last combines dynamic GPS solutions with a geometric user solution. Two powerful extensions of the hybrid strategy show the most promise. The first uses an optimized synthesis of dynamics and geometry in the user solution, while the second uses a gravity adjustment method to exploit data from repeat ground tracks. These techniques promise to deliver subdecimeter accuracy down to the lowest satellite altitudes.

Comparative Education: The Dialectic of the Global and the Local. Third Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnove, Robert F., Ed.; Torres, Carlos Alberto, Ed.

2007-01-01

This book brings together many of the outstanding scholars in the field of comparative and international education to provide new perspectives on the dynamic interplay of global, national, and local forces as they shape the functioning and outcomes of education systems in specific contexts. Various chapters in the book call for a rethinking of the…

Global Dimensions in U.S. Education: The Elementary School.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torney, Judith V.; Morris, Donald N.

This is one of four studies which review the state of the art of globalized curriculum development. This new view requires teachers and children to have an ability to deal with tremendous complexity, see situations in new ways - outside past experience - and to perceive system dynamics instead of structural statics. It is a much broader…

Abbreviation as a Reflection of Terms Variability in Language for Specific Purposes: Translational Features (Terminology Case Study in German, English, Kazakh, and Russia)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beisembayeva, Gulshat Z.; Yeskindirova, Manshuk Z.; Tulebayeva, Samal A.

2016-01-01

The range of modern dynamic social changes, globalization of world powers' economic cooperation, acceleration of technocratic processes have widespread impact on term systems' variability in language, in particular, on terminological variability for specific purposes. This globalized extra-linguistic factor provokes avalanche growth of…

Determination of crustal motions using satellite laser ranging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Satellite laser ranging has matured over the last decade into one of the essential space geodesy techniques. It has demonstrated centimeter site positioning and millimeter per year velocity determinations in a frame tied dynamically to the mass center of the solid Earth hydrosphere atmosphere system. Such a coordinate system is a requirement for studying long term eustatic sea level rise and other global change phenomena. Earth orientation parameters determined with the coordinate system have been produced in near real time operationally since 1983, at a relatively modest cost. The SLR ranging to Lageos has also provided a rich spectrum of results based upon the analysis of Lageos orbital dynamics. These include significant improvements in the knowledge of the mean and variable components of the Earth's gravity field and the Earth's gravitational parameter. The ability to measure the time variations of the Earth's gravity field has opened as exciting area of study in relating global processes, including meteorologically derived mass transport through changes in the satellite dynamics. New confirmation of general relativity was obtained using the Lageos SLR data.

Climate change: Conflict of observational science, theory, and politics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gerhard, L.C.

2004-01-01

Debate over whether human activity causes Earth climate change obscures the immensity of the dynamic systems that create and maintain climate on the planet. Anthropocentric debate leads people to believe that they can alter these planetary dynamic systems to prevent that they perceive as negative climate impacts on human civilization. Although politicians offer simplistic remedies, such as the Kyoto Protocol, global climate continues to change naturally. Better planning for the inevitable dislocations that have followed natural global climate changes throughout human history requires us to accept the fact that climate will change, and that human society must adapt to the changes. Over the last decade, the scientific literature reported a shift in emphasis from attempting to build theoretical models of putative human impacts on climate to understanding the planetwide dynamic processes that are the natural climate drivers. The current scientific literature is beginning to report the history of past climate change, the extent of natural climate variability, natural system drivers, and the episodicity of many climate changes. The scientific arguments have broadened from focus upon human effects on climate to include the array of natural phenomena that have driven global climate change for eons. However, significant political issues with long-term social consequences continue their advance. This paper summarizes recent scientific progress in climate science and arguments about human influence on climate. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Parameter identifiability of linear dynamical systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glover, K.; Willems, J. C.

1974-01-01

It is assumed that the system matrices of a stationary linear dynamical system were parametrized by a set of unknown parameters. The question considered here is, when can such a set of unknown parameters be identified from the observed data? Conditions for the local identifiability of a parametrization are derived in three situations: (1) when input/output observations are made, (2) when there exists an unknown feedback matrix in the system and (3) when the system is assumed to be driven by white noise and only output observations are made. Also a sufficient condition for global identifiability is derived.

Metastability and avalanche dynamics in strongly correlated gases with long-range interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hruby, Lorenz; Dogra, Nishant; Landini, Manuele; Donner, Tobias; Esslinger, Tilman

2018-03-01

We experimentally study the stability of a bosonic Mott insulator against the formation of a density wave induced by long-range interactions and characterize the intrinsic dynamics between these two states. The Mott insulator is created in a quantum degenerate gas of 87-Rubidium atoms, trapped in a 3D optical lattice. The gas is located inside and globally coupled to an optical cavity. This causes interactions of global range, mediated by photons dispersively scattered between a transverse lattice and the cavity. The scattering comes with an atomic density modulation, which is measured by the photon flux leaking from the cavity. We initialize the system in a Mott-insulating state and then rapidly increase the global coupling strength. We observe that the system falls into either of two distinct final states. One is characterized by a low photon flux, signaling a Mott insulator, and the other is characterized by a high photon flux, which we associate with a density wave. Ramping the global coupling slowly, we observe a hysteresis loop between the two states—a further signature of metastability. A comparison with a theoretical model confirms that the metastability originates in the competition between short- and global-range interactions. From the increasing photon flux monitored during the switching process, we find that several thousand atoms tunnel to a neighboring site on the timescale of the single-particle dynamics. We argue that a density modulation, initially forming in the compressible surface of the trapped gas, triggers an avalanche tunneling process in the Mott-insulating region.

Dynamics of one- and two-dimensional fronts in a bistable equation with time-delayed global feedback: Propagation failure and control mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boubendir, Yassine; Mendez, Vicenc; Rotstein, Horacio G.

2010-09-15

We study the evolution of fronts in a bistable equation with time-delayed global feedback in the fast reaction and slow diffusion regime. This equation generalizes the Hodgkin-Grafstein and Allen-Cahn equations. We derive a nonlinear equation governing the motion of fronts, which includes a term with delay. In the one-dimensional case this equation is linear. We study the motion of one- and two-dimensional fronts, finding a much richer dynamics than for the previously studied cases (without time-delayed global feedback). We explain the mechanism by which localized fronts created by inhibitory global coupling loose stability in a Hopf bifurcation as the delaymore » time increases. We show that for certain delay times, the prevailing phase is different from that corresponding to the system in the absence of global coupling. Numerical simulations of the partial differential equation are in agreement with the analytical predictions.« less

A novel role for visual perspective cues in the neural computation of depth

PubMed Central

Kim, HyungGoo R.; Angelaki, Dora E.; DeAngelis, Gregory C.

2014-01-01

As we explore a scene, our eye movements add global patterns of motion to the retinal image, complicating visual motion produced by self-motion or moving objects. Conventionally, it has been assumed that extra-retinal signals, such as efference copy of smooth pursuit commands, are required to compensate for the visual consequences of eye rotations. We consider an alternative possibility: namely, that the visual system can infer eye rotations from global patterns of image motion. We visually simulated combinations of eye translation and rotation, including perspective distortions that change dynamically over time. We demonstrate that incorporating these “dynamic perspective” cues allows the visual system to generate selectivity for depth sign from motion parallax in macaque area MT, a computation that was previously thought to require extra-retinal signals regarding eye velocity. Our findings suggest novel neural mechanisms that analyze global patterns of visual motion to perform computations that require knowledge of eye rotations. PMID:25436667

Dynamical analysis of a cubic Liénard system with global parameters (II)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hebai; Chen, Xingwu

2016-06-01

In this paper, we continue to study the global dynamics of a cubic Liénard system for global parameters in the case of three equilibria to follow (2015 Nonlinearity 28 3535-62), which deals with the case of two equilibria. We first analyse qualitative properties of all equilibria and judge the existences of limit cycles and homoclinic loops and their numbers. Then we obtain the bifurcation diagram and all phase portraits as our main results. Based on these results, in the case of three equilibria a positive answer to conjecture 3.2 of (1998 Nonlinearity 11 1505-19), which is about the existence of some function whose graph is exactly the surface of double limit cycles, is obtained. Moreover, a parameter region for the nonexistence of figure-eight loops is given theoretically to compensate for previous numerical results and is illustrated numerically. Supported by NSFC 11471228, 11572263, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities and Cultivation Foundation of Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of Southwest Jiaotong University (2015).

Terminator field-aligned current system: A new finding from model-assimilated data set (MADS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Sojka, J. J.; Gardner, L. C.; Eccles, J. V.; Rice, D.

2013-12-01

Physics-based data assimilation models have been recognized by the space science community as the most accurate approach to specify and forecast the space weather of the solar-terrestrial environment. The model-assimilated data sets (MADS) produced by these models constitute an internally consistent time series of global three-dimensional fields whose accuracy can be estimated. Because of its internal consistency of physics and completeness of descriptions on the status of global systems, the MADS has also been a powerful tool to identify the systematic errors in measurements, reveal the missing physics in physical models, and discover the important dynamical physical processes that are inadequately observed or missed by measurements due to observational limitations. In the past years, we developed a data assimilation model for the high-latitude ionospheric plasma dynamics and electrodynamics. With a set of physical models, an ensemble Kalman filter, and the ingestion of data from multiple observations, the data assimilation model can produce a self-consistent time-series of the complete descriptions of the global high-latitude ionosphere, which includes the convection electric field, horizontal and field-aligned currents, conductivity, as well as 3-D plasma densities and temperatures, In this presentation, we will show a new field-aligned current system discovered from the analysis of the MADS produced by our data assimilation model. This new current system appears and develops near the ionospheric terminator. The dynamical features of this current system will be described and its connection to the active role of the ionosphere in the M-I coupling will be discussed.

A tutorial on dynamical systems concepts applied to Lagrangian transport in oceanic flows defined as finite time data sets: Theoretical and computational issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancho, Ana M.; Small, Des; Wiggins, Stephen

2006-12-01

In the past 15 years the framework and ideas from dynamical systems theory have been applied to a variety of transport and mixing problems in oceanic flows. The motivation for this approach comes directly from advances in observational capabilities in oceanography (e.g., drifter deployments, remote sensing capabilities, satellite imagery, etc.) which reveal space-time structures that are highly suggestive of the structures one visualizes in the global, geometrical study of dynamical systems theory. In this tutorial, we motivate this approach by showing the relationship between fluid transport in two-dimensional time-periodic incompressible flows and the geometrical structures that exist for two-dimensional area-preserving maps, such as hyperbolic periodic orbits, their stable and unstable manifolds and KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser) tori. This serves to set the stage for the attempt to “transfer” this approach to more realistic flows modelling the ocean. However, in order to accomplish this several difficulties must be overcome. The first difficulty that confronts us that any attempt to carry out a dynamical systems approach to transport requires us to obtain the appropriate “dynamical system”, which is the velocity field describing the fluid flow. In general, adequate model velocity fields are obtained by numerical solution of appropriate partial differential equations describing the dynamical evolution of the velocity field. Numerical solution of the partial differential equations can only be done for a finite time interval, and since the ocean is generally not time-periodic, this leads to a new type of dynamical system: a finite-time, aperiodically time-dependent velocity field defined as a data set on a space-time grid. The global, geometrical analysis of transport in such dynamical systems requires both new concepts and new analytical and computational tools, as well as the necessity to discard some of the standard ideas and results from dynamical systems theory. The purpose of this tutorial is to describe these new concepts and analytical tools first using simple dynamical systems where quantities can be computed exactly. We then discuss their computational implications and implementation in the context of a model geophysical flow: a turbulent wind-driven double-gyre in the quasigeostrophic approximation.

The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System: A Resource to Support Scientific Analysis Using Space Geodesy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll. Carey E.

2010-01-01

Since 1982. the Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) has supported the archive and distribution of geodetic data products acquired by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) as well as national and international programs. The CDDIS provides easy, timely, and reliable access to a variety of data sets, products, and information about these data. These measurements. obtained from a global network of nearly 650 instruments at more than 400 distinct sites, include DORIS (Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite), GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System), SLR and LLR (Satellite and Lunar Laser Ranging), and VLBI (Very Long Baseline Interferometry). The CDDIS data system and its archive have become increasingly important to many national and international science communities, particularly several of the operational services within the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) and its observing system the Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), including the International DORIS Service (IDS), the International GNSS Service (IGS). the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS), the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS). and the International Earth rotation and Reference frame Service (IERS), Investigations resulting from the data and products available through the CDDIS support research in many aspects of Earth system science and global change. Each month, the CDDIS archives more than one million data and derived product files totaling over 90 Gbytes in volume. In turn. the global user community downloads nearly 1.2 TBytes (over 10.5 million files) of data and products from the CDDIS each month. The requirements of analysts have evolved since the start of the CDDIS; the specialized nature of the system accommodates the enhancements required to support diverse data sets and user needs. This paper discusses the CDDIS. including background information about the system and its. user communities. archive contents. available metadata, and future plans.

(abstract) Application of the GPS Worldwide Network in the Study of Global Ionospheric Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Mannucci, A. J.; Lindqwister, U. J.; Pi, X.; Sparks, L. C.; Rao, A. M.; Wilsion, B. D.; Yuan, D. N.; Reyes, M.

1997-01-01

Ionospheric storm dynamics as a response to the geomagnetic storms is a very complicated global process involving many different mechanisms. Studying ionospheric storms will help us to understand the energy coupling process between the Sun and Earth and possibly also to effectively forecast space weather changes. Such a study requires a worldwide monitoring system. The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility.

Stimulation-Based Control of Dynamic Brain Networks

PubMed Central

Pasqualetti, Fabio; Gu, Shi; Cieslak, Matthew

2016-01-01

The ability to modulate brain states using targeted stimulation is increasingly being employed to treat neurological disorders and to enhance human performance. Despite the growing interest in brain stimulation as a form of neuromodulation, much remains unknown about the network-level impact of these focal perturbations. To study the system wide impact of regional stimulation, we employ a data-driven computational model of nonlinear brain dynamics to systematically explore the effects of targeted stimulation. Validating predictions from network control theory, we uncover the relationship between regional controllability and the focal versus global impact of stimulation, and we relate these findings to differences in the underlying network architecture. Finally, by mapping brain regions to cognitive systems, we observe that the default mode system imparts large global change despite being highly constrained by structural connectivity. This work forms an important step towards the development of personalized stimulation protocols for medical treatment or performance enhancement. PMID:27611328

Dynamics of a New 5D Hyperchaotic System of Lorenz Type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fuchen; Chen, Rui; Wang, Xingyuan; Chen, Xiusu; Mu, Chunlai; Liao, Xiaofeng

Ultimate boundedness of chaotic dynamical systems is one of the fundamental concepts in dynamical systems, which plays an important role in investigating the stability of the equilibrium, estimating the Lyapunov dimension of attractors and the Hausdorff dimension of attractors, the existence of periodic solutions, chaos control, chaos synchronization. However, it is often difficult to obtain the bounds of the hyperchaotic systems due to the complex algebraic structure of the hyperchaotic systems. This paper has investigated the boundedness of solutions of a nonlinear hyperchaotic system. We have obtained the global exponential attractive set and the ultimate bound set for this system. To obtain the ellipsoidal ultimate bound, the ultimate bound of the proposed system is theoretically estimated using Lagrange multiplier method, Lyapunov stability theory and optimization theory. To show the ultimate bound region, numerical simulations are provided.

Chaos in high-dimensional dissipative dynamical systems

PubMed Central

Ispolatov, Iaroslav; Madhok, Vaibhav; Allende, Sebastian; Doebeli, Michael

2015-01-01

For dissipative dynamical systems described by a system of ordinary differential equations, we address the question of how the probability of chaotic dynamics increases with the dimensionality of the phase space. We find that for a system of d globally coupled ODE’s with quadratic and cubic non-linearities with randomly chosen coefficients and initial conditions, the probability of a trajectory to be chaotic increases universally from ~10−5 − 10−4 for d = 3 to essentially one for d ~ 50. In the limit of large d, the invariant measure of the dynamical systems exhibits universal scaling that depends on the degree of non-linearity, but not on the choice of coefficients, and the largest Lyapunov exponent converges to a universal scaling limit. Using statistical arguments, we provide analytical explanations for the observed scaling, universality, and for the probability of chaos. PMID:26224119

Anthropogenic biomes: a key contribution to earth-system science

Treesearch

Lilian Alessa; F. Stuart Chapin

2008-01-01

Human activities now dominate most of the ice-free terrestrial surface. A recent article presents a classification and global map of human-influenced biomes of the world that provides a novel and potentially appropriate framework for projecting changes in earth-system dynamics.

A global assessment of gross and net land change dynamics for current conditions and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Richard; Prestele, Reinhard; Verburg, Peter H.

2018-05-01

The consideration of gross land changes, meaning all area gains and losses within a pixel or administrative unit (e.g. country), plays an essential role in the estimation of total land changes. Gross land changes affect the magnitude of total land changes, which feeds back to the attribution of biogeochemical and biophysical processes related to climate change in Earth system models. Global empirical studies on gross land changes are currently lacking. Whilst the relevance of gross changes for global change has been indicated in the literature, it is not accounted for in future land change scenarios. In this study, we extract gross and net land change dynamics from large-scale and high-resolution (30-100 m) remote sensing products to create a new global gross and net change dataset. Subsequently, we developed an approach to integrate our empirically derived gross and net changes with the results of future simulation models by accounting for the gross and net change addressed by the land use model and the gross and net change that is below the resolution of modelling. Based on our empirical data, we found that gross land change within 0.5° grid cells was substantially larger than net changes in all parts of the world. As 0.5° grid cells are a standard resolution of Earth system models, this leads to an underestimation of the amount of change. This finding contradicts earlier studies, which assumed gross land changes to appear in shifting cultivation areas only. Applied in a future scenario, the consideration of gross land changes led to approximately 50 % more land changes globally compared to a net land change representation. Gross land changes were most important in heterogeneous land systems with multiple land uses (e.g. shifting cultivation, smallholder farming, and agro-forestry systems). Moreover, the importance of gross changes decreased over time due to further polarization and intensification of land use. Our results serve as an empirical database for land change dynamics that can be applied in Earth system models and integrated assessment models.

Cartan symmetries and global dynamical systems analysis in a higher-order modified teleparallel theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpathopoulos, L.; Basilakos, S.; Leon, G.; Paliathanasis, A.; Tsamparlis, M.

2018-07-01

In a higher-order modified teleparallel theory cosmological we present analytical cosmological solutions. In particular we determine forms of the unknown potential which drives the scalar field such that the field equations form a Liouville integrable system. For the determination of the conservation laws we apply the Cartan symmetries. Furthermore, inspired from our solutions, a toy model is studied and it is shown that it can describe the Supernova data, while at the same time introduces dark matter components in the Hubble function. When the extra matter source is a stiff fluid then we show how analytical solutions for Bianchi I universes can be constructed from our analysis. Finally, we perform a global dynamical analysis of the field equations by using variables different from that of the Hubble-normalization.

Aviation Security Cooperation: Advancing Global Vigilance, Global Reach, and Global Power in a Dynamic World

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-01

Views September–October 2014 Air & Space Power Journal | 92 Aviation Security Cooperation Advancing Global Vigilance, Global Reach, and Global Power...2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Aviation Security Cooperation: Advancing Global Vigilance, Global Reach, and Global Power in a Dynamic

Networked dynamical systems with linear coupling: synchronisation patterns, coherence and other behaviours.

PubMed

Judd, Kevin

2013-12-01

Many physical and biochemical systems are well modelled as a network of identical non-linear dynamical elements with linear coupling between them. An important question is how network structure affects chaotic dynamics, for example, by patterns of synchronisation and coherence. It is shown that small networks can be characterised precisely into patterns of exact synchronisation and large networks characterised by partial synchronisation at the local and global scale. Exact synchronisation modes are explained using tools of symmetry groups and invariance, and partial synchronisation is explained by finite-time shadowing of exact synchronisation modes.

Regulation of Dynamical Systems to Optimal Solutions of Semidefinite Programs: Algorithms and Applications to AC Optimal Power Flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dall'Anese, Emiliano; Dhople, Sairaj V.; Giannakis, Georgios B.

2015-07-01

This paper considers a collection of networked nonlinear dynamical systems, and addresses the synthesis of feedback controllers that seek optimal operating points corresponding to the solution of pertinent network-wide optimization problems. Particular emphasis is placed on the solution of semidefinite programs (SDPs). The design of the feedback controller is grounded on a dual e-subgradient approach, with the dual iterates utilized to dynamically update the dynamical-system reference signals. Global convergence is guaranteed for diminishing stepsize rules, even when the reference inputs are updated at a faster rate than the dynamical-system settling time. The application of the proposed framework to the controlmore » of power-electronic inverters in AC distribution systems is discussed. The objective is to bridge the time-scale separation between real-time inverter control and network-wide optimization. Optimization objectives assume the form of SDP relaxations of prototypical AC optimal power flow problems.« less

Groundwater development stress: Global-scale indices compared to regional modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, William; Clark, Brian R.; Ely, Matt; Faunt, Claudia

2018-01-01

The increased availability of global datasets and technologies such as global hydrologic models and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites have resulted in a growing number of global-scale assessments of water availability using simple indices of water stress. Developed initially for surface water, such indices are increasingly used to evaluate global groundwater resources. We compare indices of groundwater development stress for three major agricultural areas of the United States to information available from regional water budgets developed from detailed groundwater modeling. These comparisons illustrate the potential value of regional-scale analyses to supplement global hydrological models and GRACE analyses of groundwater depletion. Regional-scale analyses allow assessments of water stress that better account for scale effects, the dynamics of groundwater flow systems, the complexities of irrigated agricultural systems, and the laws, regulations, engineering, and socioeconomic factors that govern groundwater use. Strategic use of regional-scale models with global-scale analyses would greatly enhance knowledge of the global groundwater depletion problem.

A robot control architecture supported on contraction theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Jorge; Sequeira, João; Santos, Cristina

2017-01-01

This paper proposes fundamentals for stability and success of a global system composed by a mobile robot, a real environment and a navigation architecture with time constraints. Contraction theory is a typical framework that provides tools and properties to prove the stability and convergence of the global system to a unique fixed point that identifies the mission success. A stability indicator based on the combination contraction property is developed to identify the mission success as a stability measure. The architecture is fully designed through C1 nonlinear dynamical systems and feedthrough maps, which makes it amenable for contraction analysis. Experiments in a realistic and uncontrolled environment are realised to verify if inherent perturbations of the sensory information and of the environment affect the stability and success of the global system.

CDDIS 2001 Global Data Center Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, Carey E.

2004-01-01

The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) has supported the International GPS Service (IGS) as a global data center since 1992. The CDDIS activities within the IGS during 2001 are summarized below; this report also includes any changes or enhancements made to the CDDIS during the past year. General CDDIS background and system information can be found in the CDDIS data center summary included in the IGS 1994 Annual Report (Noll, 1995) as well as the subsequent updates (Noll, 1996, Noll, 1997, Noll, 1998, Noll, 1999, and Noll, 2001).

CDDIS 2002 Global Data Center Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, Carey E.

2004-01-01

The Crustal Dynamics Data Information System (CDDIS) has supported the International GPS Service (IGS) as a global data center since 1992. The CDDIS activities within the IGS during 2002 are summarized below; this report also includes any changes or enhancements made to the CDDIS during the past year. General CDDIS background and system information can be found in the CDDIS data center summary included in the IGS 1994 Annual Report (Noll, 1995) as well as the subsequent updates (Noll, 1996, Noll, 1997, Noll, 1998, Noll, 1999, and Noll, 2001).

Model systems for single molecule polymer dynamics

PubMed Central

Latinwo, Folarin

2012-01-01

Double stranded DNA (dsDNA) has long served as a model system for single molecule polymer dynamics. However, dsDNA is a semiflexible polymer, and the structural rigidity of the DNA double helix gives rise to local molecular properties and chain dynamics that differ from flexible chains, including synthetic organic polymers. Recently, we developed single stranded DNA (ssDNA) as a new model system for single molecule studies of flexible polymer chains. In this work, we discuss model polymer systems in the context of “ideal” and “real” chain behavior considering thermal blobs, tension blobs, hydrodynamic drag and force–extension relations. In addition, we present monomer aspect ratio as a key parameter describing chain conformation and dynamics, and we derive dynamical scaling relations in terms of this molecular-level parameter. We show that asymmetric Kuhn segments can suppress monomer–monomer interactions, thereby altering global chain dynamics. Finally, we discuss ssDNA in the context of a new model system for single molecule polymer dynamics. Overall, we anticipate that future single polymer studies of flexible chains will reveal new insight into the dynamic behavior of “real” polymers, which will highlight the importance of molecular individualism and the prevalence of non-linear phenomena. PMID:22956980

On the global dynamics of a chronic myelogenous leukemia model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krishchenko, Alexander P.; Starkov, Konstantin E.

2016-04-01

In this paper we analyze some features of global dynamics of a three-dimensional chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) model with the help of the stability analysis and the localization method of compact invariant sets. The behavior of CML model is defined by concentrations of three cellpopulations circulating in the blood: naive T cells, effector T cells specific to CML and CML cancer cells. We prove that the dynamics of the CML system around the tumor-free equilibrium point is unstable. Further, we compute ultimate upper bounds for all three cell populations and provide the existence conditions of the positively invariant polytope. One ultimate lower bound is obtained as well. Moreover, we describe the iterative localization procedure for refining localization bounds; this procedure is based on cyclic using of localizing functions. Applying this procedure we obtain conditions under which the internal tumor equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Our theoretical analyses are supplied by results of the numerical simulation.

Multi-scale dynamical behavior of spatially distributed systems: a deterministic point of view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mangiarotti, S.; Le Jean, F.; Drapeau, L.; Huc, M.

2015-12-01

Physical and biophysical systems are spatially distributed systems. Their behavior can be observed or modelled spatially at various resolutions. In this work, a deterministic point of view is adopted to analyze multi-scale behavior taking a set of ordinary differential equation (ODE) as elementary part of the system.To perform analyses, scenes of study are thus generated based on ensembles of identical elementary ODE systems. Without any loss of generality, their dynamics is chosen chaotic in order to ensure sensitivity to initial conditions, that is, one fundamental property of atmosphere under instable conditions [1]. The Rössler system [2] is used for this purpose for both its topological and algebraic simplicity [3,4].Two cases are thus considered: the chaotic oscillators composing the scene of study are taken either independent, or in phase synchronization. Scale behaviors are analyzed considering the scene of study as aggregations (basically obtained by spatially averaging the signal) or as associations (obtained by concatenating the time series). The global modeling technique is used to perform the numerical analyses [5].One important result of this work is that, under phase synchronization, a scene of aggregated dynamics can be approximated by the elementary system composing the scene, but modifying its parameterization [6]. This is shown based on numerical analyses. It is then demonstrated analytically and generalized to a larger class of ODE systems. Preliminary applications to cereal crops observed from satellite are also presented.[1] Lorenz, Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141 (1963).[2] Rössler, An equation for continuous chaos, Phys. Lett. A, 57, 397-398 (1976).[3] Gouesbet & Letellier, Global vector-field reconstruction by using a multivariate polynomial L2 approximation on nets, Phys. Rev. E 49, 4955-4972 (1994).[4] Letellier, Roulin & Rössler, Inequivalent topologies of chaos in simple equations, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 28, 337-360 (2006).[5] Mangiarotti, Coudret, Drapeau, & Jarlan, Polynomial search and global modeling, Phys. Rev. E 86(4), 046205 (2012).[6] Mangiarotti, Modélisation globale et Caractérisation Topologique de dynamiques environnementales. Habilitation à Diriger des Recherches, Univ. Toulouse 3 (2014).

SEASAT economic assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hicks, K.; Steele, W.

1974-01-01

The SEASAT program will provide scientific and economic benefits from global remote sensing of the ocean's dynamic and physical characteristics. The program as presently envisioned consists of: (1) SEASAT A; (2) SEASAT B; and (3) Operational SEASAT. This economic assessment was to identify, rationalize, quantify and validate the economic benefits evolving from SEASAT. These benefits will arise from improvements in the operating efficiency of systems that interface with the ocean. SEASAT data will be combined with data from other ocean and atmospheric sampling systems and then processed through analytical models of the interaction between oceans and atmosphere to yield accurate global measurements and global long range forecasts of ocean conditions and weather.

Morphology-Induced Collective Behaviors: Dynamic Pattern Formation in Water-Floating Elements

PubMed Central

Nakajima, Kohei; Ngouabeu, Aubery Marchel Tientcheu; Miyashita, Shuhei; Göldi, Maurice; Füchslin, Rudolf Marcel; Pfeifer, Rolf

2012-01-01

Complex systems involving many interacting elements often organize into patterns. Two types of pattern formation can be distinguished, static and dynamic. Static pattern formation means that the resulting structure constitutes a thermodynamic equilibrium whose pattern formation can be understood in terms of the minimization of free energy, while dynamic pattern formation indicates that the system is permanently dissipating energy and not in equilibrium. In this paper, we report experimental results showing that the morphology of elements plays a significant role in dynamic pattern formation. We prepared three different shapes of elements (circles, squares, and triangles) floating in a water-filled container, in which each of the shapes has two types: active elements that were capable of self-agitation with vibration motors, and passive elements that were mere floating tiles. The system was purely decentralized: that is, elements interacted locally, and subsequently elicited global patterns in a process called self-organized segregation. We showed that, according to the morphology of the selected elements, a different type of segregation occurs. Also, we quantitatively characterized both the local interaction regime and the resulting global behavior for each type of segregation by means of information theoretic quantities, and showed the difference for each case in detail, while offering speculation on the mechanism causing this phenomenon. PMID:22715370

Chaos and simple determinism in reversed field pinch plasmas: Nonlinear analysis of numerical simulation and experimental data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watts, Christopher A.

In this dissertation the possibility that chaos and simple determinism are governing the dynamics of reversed field pinch (RFP) plasmas is investigated. To properly assess this possibility, data from both numerical simulations and experiment are analyzed. A large repertoire of nonlinear analysis techniques is used to identify low dimensional chaos in the data. These tools include phase portraits and Poincare sections, correlation dimension, the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents and short term predictability. In addition, nonlinear noise reduction techniques are applied to the experimental data in an attempt to extract any underlying deterministic dynamics. Two model systems are used to simulatemore » the plasma dynamics. These are the DEBS code, which models global RFP dynamics, and the dissipative trapped electron mode (DTEM) model, which models drift wave turbulence. Data from both simulations show strong indications of low dimensional chaos and simple determinism. Experimental date were obtained from the Madison Symmetric Torus RFP and consist of a wide array of both global and local diagnostic signals. None of the signals shows any indication of low dimensional chaos or low simple determinism. Moreover, most of the analysis tools indicate the experimental system is very high dimensional with properties similar to noise. Nonlinear noise reduction is unsuccessful at extracting an underlying deterministic system.« less

Dynamics of Shape Memory Alloy Systems, Phase 2

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-22

M.A. Savi, S.L.D. Paiva & A.C.P. Brasil Jr., Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, v.11, n.3, pp.463-490, 2013. ISSN 1589-1623. 26...Dynamics and Chaos of the Daisyworld Employed for Global Warming Description", F.M. Viola, M.A. Savi, S.L.D. Paiva & A.C.P. Brasil Jr., Applied Ecology

Global dynamics of a mathematical model for the possible re-emergence of polio.

PubMed

Dénes, Attila; Székely, László

2017-11-01

Motivated by studies warning about a possible re-emergence of poliomyelitis in Europe, we analyse a compartmental model for the transmission of polio describing the possible effect of unvaccinated people arriving to a region with low vaccination coverage. We calculate the basic reproduction number, and determine the global dynamics of the system: we show that, depending on the parameters, one of the two equilibria is globally asymptotically stable. The main tools applied are Lyapunov functions and persistence theory. We illustrate the analytic results by numerical examples, which also suggest that in order to avoid the risk of polio re-emergence, vaccinating the immigrant population might result insufficient, and also the vaccination coverage of countries with low rates should be increased. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved global simulation of groundwater-ecosystem interactions via tight coupling of a dynamic global ecosystem model and a global hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braakhekke, Maarten; Rebel, Karin; Dekker, Stefan; Smith, Benjamin; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; van Kampenhout, Leo; Wassen, Martin

2017-04-01

In up to 30% of the global land surface ecosystems are potentially influenced by the presence of a shallow groundwater table. In these regions upward water flux by capillary rise increases soil moisture availability in the root zone, which has a strong effect on evapotranspiration, vegetation dynamics, and fluxes of carbon and nitrogen. Most global hydrological models and several land surface models simulate groundwater table dynamics and their effects on land surface processes. However, these models typically have relatively simplistic representation of vegetation and do not consider changes in vegetation type and structure. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), describe land surface from an ecological perspective, combining detailed description of vegetation dynamics and structure, and biogeochemical processes and are thus more appropriate to simulate the ecological and biogeochemical effects of groundwater interactions. However, currently virtually all DGVMs ignore these effects, assuming that water tables are too deep to affect soil moisture in the root zone. We have implemented a tight coupling between the dynamic global ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB, which explicitly simulates groundwater dynamics. This coupled model allows us to explicitly account for groundwater effects on terrestrial ecosystem processes at global scale. Results of global simulations indicate that groundwater strongly influences fluxes of water, carbon and nitrogen, in many regions, adding up to a considerable effect at the global scale.

Dynamic Transition and Resonance in Coupled Oscillators Under Symmetry-Breaking Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J.; Choi, M. Y.; Chung, M. S.; Yoon, B.-G.

2013-06-01

We investigate numerically the dynamic properties of a system of globally coupled oscillators driven by periodic symmetry-breaking fields in the presence of noise. The phase distribution of the oscillators is computed and a dynamic transition is disclosed. It is further found that the stochastic resonance is closely related to the behavior of the dynamic order parameter, which is in turn explained by the formation of a bi-cluster in the system. Here noise tends to symmetrize the motion of the oscillators, facilitating the bi-cluster formation. The observed resonance appears to be of the same class as the resonance present in the two-dimensional Ising model under oscillating fields.

GPS synchronized power system phase angle measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Robert E.; Sterlina, Patrick S.

1994-09-01

This paper discusses the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) synchronized equipment for the measurement and analysis of key power system quantities. Two GPS synchronized phasor measurement units (PMU) were installed before testing. It was indicated that PMUs recorded the dynamic response of the power system phase angles when the northern California power grid was excited by the artificial short circuits. Power system planning engineers perform detailed computer generated simulations of the dynamic response of the power system to naturally occurring short circuits. The computer simulations use models of transmission lines, transformers, circuit breakers, and other high voltage components. This work will compare computer simulations of the same event with field measurement.

A methodology for global-sensitivity analysis of time-dependent outputs in systems biology modelling.

PubMed

Sumner, T; Shephard, E; Bogle, I D L

2012-09-07

One of the main challenges in the development of mathematical and computational models of biological systems is the precise estimation of parameter values. Understanding the effects of uncertainties in parameter values on model behaviour is crucial to the successful use of these models. Global sensitivity analysis (SA) can be used to quantify the variability in model predictions resulting from the uncertainty in multiple parameters and to shed light on the biological mechanisms driving system behaviour. We present a new methodology for global SA in systems biology which is computationally efficient and can be used to identify the key parameters and their interactions which drive the dynamic behaviour of a complex biological model. The approach combines functional principal component analysis with established global SA techniques. The methodology is applied to a model of the insulin signalling pathway, defects of which are a major cause of type 2 diabetes and a number of key features of the system are identified.

The Interconnected Challenges for Food Security from a Food Regimes Perspective: Energy, Climate and Malconsumption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sage, Colin

2013-01-01

Recent experience of food price volatility in global markets encourages closer examination of the dynamics underlying the global food system and reveals a range of contingent factors. Meanwhile a common thread of many recent expert reports has emphasised the need to intensify agricultural production to double food output by 2050. Drawing upon a…

GPS Data Analysis for Earth Orientation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zumberge, J.; Webb, F.; Lindqwister, U.; Lichten, S.; Jefferson, D.; Ibanez-Meier, R.; Heflin, M.; Freedman, A.; Blewitt, G.

1994-01-01

Beginning June 1992 and continuing indefinitely as part of our contribution to FLINN (Fiducial Laboratories for an International Natural Science Network), DOSE (NASA's Dynamics of the Solid Earth Program), and the IGS (International GPS Geodynamics Service), analysts at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have routinely been reducing data from a globally-distributed network of Rogue Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers.

Coordinating Multi-Rover Systems: Evaluation Functions for Dynamic and Noisy Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, Kagan; Agogino, Adrian

2005-01-01

This paper addresses the evolution of control strategies for a collective: a set of entities that collectively strives to maximize a global evaluation function that rates the performance of the full system. Directly addressing such problems by having a population of collectives and applying the evolutionary algorithm to that population is appealing, but the search space is prohibitively large in most cases. Instead, we focus on evolving control policies for each member of the collective. The fundamental issue in this approach is how to create an evaluation function for each member of the collective that is both aligned with the global evaluation function and is sensitive to the fitness changes of the member, while relatively insensitive to the fitness changes of other members. We show how to construct evaluation functions in dynamic, noisy and communication-limited collective environments. On a rover coordination problem, a control policy evolved using aligned and member-sensitive evaluations outperfoms global evaluation methods by up to 400%. More notably, in the presence of a larger number of rovers or rovers with noisy and communication limited sensors, the proposed method outperforms global evaluation by a higher percentage than in noise-free conditions with a small number of rovers.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Systems biology, adverse outcome pathways, and ecotoxicology in the 21st century

EPA Science Inventory

While many definitions of systems biology exist, the majority of these contain most (if not all) of the following elements: global measurements of biological molecules to the extent technically feasible, dynamic measurements of key biological molecules to establish quantitative r...

Dynamics of global supply chain and electric power networks: Models, pricing analysis, and computations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsypura, Dmytro

In this dissertation, I develop a new theoretical framework for the modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of solutions to electric power supply chains with power generators, suppliers, transmission service providers, and the inclusion of consumer demands. In particular, I advocate the application of finite-dimensional variational inequality theory, projected dynamical systems theory, game theory, network theory, and other tools that have been recently proposed for the modeling and analysis of supply chain networks (cf. Nagurney (2006)) to electric power markets. This dissertation contributes to the extant literature on the modeling, analysis, and solution of supply chain networks, including global supply chains, in general, and electric power supply chains, in particular, in the following ways. It develops a theoretical framework for modeling, pricing analysis, and computation of electric power flows/transactions in electric power systems using the rationale for supply chain analysis. The models developed include both static and dynamic ones. The dissertation also adds a new dimension to the methodology of the theory of projected dynamical systems by proving that, irrespective of the speeds of adjustment, the equilibrium of the system remains the same. Finally, I include alternative fuel suppliers, along with their behavior into the supply chain modeling and analysis framework. This dissertation has strong practical implications. In an era in which technology and globalization, coupled with increasing risk and uncertainty, complicate electricity demand and supply within and between nations, the successful management of electric power systems and pricing become increasingly pressing topics with relevance not only for economic prosperity but also national security. This dissertation addresses such related topics by providing models, pricing tools, and algorithms for decentralized electric power supply chains. This dissertation is based heavily on the following coauthored papers: Nagurney, Cruz, and Matsypura (2003), Nagurney and Matsypura (2004, 2005, 2006), Matsypura and Nagurney (2005), Matsypura, Nagurney, and Liu (2006).

Major component analysis of dynamic networks of physiologic organ interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kang K. L.; Bartsch, Ronny P.; Ma, Qianli D. Y.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch

2015-09-01

The human organism is a complex network of interconnected organ systems, where the behavior of one system affects the dynamics of other systems. Identifying and quantifying dynamical networks of diverse physiologic systems under varied conditions is a challenge due to the complexity in the output dynamics of the individual systems and the transient and nonlinear characteristics of their coupling. We introduce a novel computational method based on the concept of time delay stability and major component analysis to investigate how organ systems interact as a network to coordinate their functions. We analyze a large database of continuously recorded multi-channel physiologic signals from healthy young subjects during night-time sleep. We identify a network of dynamic interactions between key physiologic systems in the human organism. Further, we find that each physiologic state is characterized by a distinct network structure with different relative contribution from individual organ systems to the global network dynamics. Specifically, we observe a gradual decrease in the strength of coupling of heart and respiration to the rest of the network with transition from wake to deep sleep, and in contrast, an increased relative contribution to network dynamics from chin and leg muscle tone and eye movement, demonstrating a robust association between network topology and physiologic function.

Edge states in the climate system: exploring global instabilities and critical transitions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio; Bódai, Tamás

2017-07-01

Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system’s response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and—for all practical purposes—irreversible changes in the properties of the system. As is well known, the Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical and astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches to the problem. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and collaborators for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluid dynamical systems, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the climatic edge state, a saddle embedded in the boundary between the two basins of attraction of the stable climates. The edge state attracts initial conditions belonging to such a boundary and, while being defined by the deterministic dynamics, is the gate facilitating noise-induced transitions between competing attractors. We use a simplified yet Earth-like intermediate complexity climate model constructed by coupling a primitive equations model of the atmosphere with a simple diffusive ocean. We refer to the climatic edge states as Melancholia states and provide an extensive analysis of their features. We study their dynamics, their symmetry properties, and we follow a complex set of bifurcations. We find situations where the Melancholia state has chaotic dynamics. In these cases, we have that the basin boundary between the two basins of attraction is a strange geometric set with a nearly zero codimension, and relate this feature to the time scale separation between instabilities occurring on weather and climatic time scales. We also discover a new stable climatic state that is similar to a Melancholia state and is characterized by non-trivial symmetry properties.

Global Plasmaspheric Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, Dennis L.; Carpenter, Donald L.

1998-01-01

The plasmasphere and the dense plasmas drawn from it into the middle and outer magnetosphere dynamically participates in the transport of energy produced during magnetic storms into the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere. These plasmas are also a tracer of electric fields induced globally by the solar wind and locally through transient phenomena. The outstanding issues related to plasmaspheric plasma in the magnetosphere will be discussed in the context of the anticipated IMAGE mission which, for the first time, will provide global images of this plasma system.

Global dynamics of zooplankton and harmful algae in flowing habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Wang, Feng-Bin; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

This paper is devoted to the study of two advection-dispersion-reaction models arising from the dynamics of harmful algae and zooplankton in flowing-water habitats where a main channel is coupled to a hydraulic storage zone, representing an ensemble of fringing coves on the shoreline. For the system modeling the dynamics of algae and their toxin that contains little limiting nutrient, we establish a threshold type result on the global attractivity in terms of the basic reproduction ratio for algae. For the model with zooplankton that eat the algae and are inhibited by the toxin produced by algae, we show that there exists a coexistence steady state and the zooplankton is uniformly persistent provided that two basic reproduction ratios for algae and zooplankton are greater than unity.

Work stealing for GPU-accelerated parallel programs in a global address space framework: WORK STEALING ON GPU-ACCELERATED SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arafat, Humayun; Dinan, James; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

Task parallelism is an attractive approach to automatically load balance the computation in a parallel system and adapt to dynamism exhibited by parallel systems. Exploiting task parallelism through work stealing has been extensively studied in shared and distributed-memory contexts. In this paper, we study the design of a system that uses work stealing for dynamic load balancing of task-parallel programs executed on hybrid distributed-memory CPU-graphics processing unit (GPU) systems in a global-address space framework. We take into account the unique nature of the accelerator model employed by GPUs, the significant performance difference between GPU and CPU execution as a functionmore » of problem size, and the distinct CPU and GPU memory domains. We consider various alternatives in designing a distributed work stealing algorithm for CPU-GPU systems, while taking into account the impact of task distribution and data movement overheads. These strategies are evaluated using microbenchmarks that capture various execution configurations as well as the state-of-the-art CCSD(T) application module from the computational chemistry domain.« less

Estimating European soil organic carbon mitigation potential in a global integrated land use model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Stefan; Böttcher, Hannes; Schneider, Uwe; Schmid, Erwin; Havlík, Petr

2013-04-01

Several studies have shown the dynamic interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration rates, soil management decisions and SOC levels. Management practices such as reduced and no-tillage, improved residue management and crop rotations as well as the conversion of marginal cropland to native vegetation or conversion of cultivated land to permanent grassland offer the potential to increase SOC content. Even though dynamic interactions are widely acknowledged in literature, they have not been implemented in most existing land use decision models. A major obstacle is the high data and computing requirements for an explicit representation of alternative land use sequences since a model has to be able to track all different management decision paths. To our knowledge no study accounted so far for SOC dynamics explicitly in a global integrated land use model. To overcome these conceptual difficulties described above we apply an approach capable of accounting for SOC dynamics in GLOBIOM (Global Biosphere Management Model), a global recursive dynamic partial equilibrium bottom-up model integrating the agricultural, bioenergy and forestry sectors. GLOBIOM represents all major land based sectors and therefore is able to account for direct and indirect effects of land use change as well as leakage effects (e.g. through trade) implicitly. Together with the detailed representation of technologies (e.g. tillage and fertilizer management systems), these characteristics make the model a highly valuable tool for assessing European SOC emissions and mitigation potential. Demand and international trade are represented in this version of the model at the level of 27 EU member states and 23 aggregated world regions outside Europe. Changes in the demand on the one side, and profitability of the different land based activities on the other side, are the major determinants of land use change in GLOBIOM. In this paper we estimate SOC emissions from cropland for the EU until 2050 explicitly considering SOC dynamics due to land use and land management in a global integrated land use model. Moreover, we calculate the EU SOC mitigation potential taking into account leakage effects outside Europe as well as related feed backs from other sectors. In sensitivity analysis, we disaggregate the SOC mitigation potential i.e. we quantify the impact of different management systems and crop rotations to identify most promising mitigation strategies.

Probe conformational dynamics of proteins in aqueous solutions by terahertz spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinh, Nguyen Q.

2016-10-01

Proteins solvated in their biologically milieu are expected to exhibit strong absorption in the terahertz frequencies, that contain information on their global and sub-global collective vibrational modes (conformational dynamics) and global dynamic correlations among solvent water and proteins. The dynamics play an important role in enzymatic activities of proteins, but obtaining an accurate and quantitative pictures of these activities, however, is challenging due to the strong absorption of water. In response, we have developed the world's highest precision, highest sensitivity terahertz-frequency domain spectrometer and a standard terahertz-time domain system to probe the collective dynamics of proteins in aqueous solutions. Operating over the frequency range from 5 GHz up to 3 THz, our spectrometers provide an unparalleled ability to probe directly such questions as the hydration level, the dynamics of water and hydrated proteins over the 100 fs to 1 ns timescale. Employing an effective medium approximation to describe the complex dielectric response of the solvated proteins in solution we find that proteins are surrounded by a loosely and tightly held layers of water molecules that behave as if they are an integral part of the protein. The number of water molecules in the protein hydration shells varies with proteins, which can tell us the average surface structure of proteins. These measurements shed light on the macromolecular motions of proteins in their biologically relevant environment.

Indices and Dynamics of Global Hydroclimate Over the Past Millennium from Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiger, N. J.; Smerdon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Reconstructions based on data assimilation (DA) are at the forefront of model-data syntheses in that such reconstructions optimally fuse proxy data with climate models. DA-based paleoclimate reconstructions have the benefit of being physically-consistent across the reconstructed climate variables and are capable of providing dynamical information about past climate phenomena. Here we use a new implementation of DA, that includes updated proxy system models and climate model bias correction procedures, to reconstruct global hydroclimate on seasonal and annual timescales over the last millennium. This new global hydroclimate product includes reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and global surface temperature along with dynamical variables including the Nino 3.4 index, the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone, and an index of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Here we present a validation of the reconstruction product and also elucidate the causes of severe drought in North America and in equatorial Africa. Specifically, we explore the connection between droughts in North America and modes of ocean variability in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We also link drought over equatorial Africa to shifts of the intertropical convergence zone and modes of ocean variability.

Neocortical dynamics at multiple scales: EEG standing waves, statistical mechanics, and physical analogs.

PubMed

Ingber, Lester; Nunez, Paul L

2011-02-01

The dynamic behavior of scalp potentials (EEG) is apparently due to some combination of global and local processes with important top-down and bottom-up interactions across spatial scales. In treating global mechanisms, we stress the importance of myelinated axon propagation delays and periodic boundary conditions in the cortical-white matter system, which is topologically close to a spherical shell. By contrast, the proposed local mechanisms are multiscale interactions between cortical columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers. A mechanical model consisting of a stretched string with attached nonlinear springs demonstrates the general idea. The string produces standing waves analogous to large-scale coherent EEG observed in some brain states. The attached springs are analogous to the smaller (mesoscopic) scale columnar dynamics. Generally, we expect string displacement and EEG at all scales to result from both global and local phenomena. A statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions (SMNI) calculates oscillatory behavior consistent with typical EEG, within columns, between neighboring columns via short-ranged non-myelinated fibers, across cortical regions via myelinated fibers, and also derives a string equation consistent with the global EEG model. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatial socio-ecosystem approach to analyse human-environment interactions on climate change adaptation for water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giupponi, Carlo; Mojtahed, Vahid

2017-04-01

Global climate and socio-economic drivers determine the future patterns of the allocation and the trade of resources and commodities in all markets. The agricultural sector is an emblematic case in which natural (e.g. climate), social (e.g. demography) and economic (e.g. the market) drivers of change interact, determining the evolution of social and ecological systems (or simply socio-ecosystems; SES) over time. In order to analyse the dynamics and possible future evolutions of SES, the combination of local complex systems and global drivers and trends require the development of multiscale approaches. At global level, climatic general circulation models (CGM) and computable general equilibrium or partial equilibrium models have been used for many years to explore the effects of global trends and generate future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Al local level, the inherent complexity of SESs and their spatial and temporal variabilities require different modelling approaches of physical/environmental sub-systems (e.g. field scale crop modelling, GIS-based models, etc.) and of human agency decision makers (e.g. agent based models). Global and local models have different assumption, limitations, constrains, etc., but in some cases integration is possible and several attempts are in progress to couple different models within the so-called Integrated Assessment Models. This work explores an innovative proposal to integrate the global and local approaches, where agent-based models (ABM) are used to simulate spatial (i.e. grid-based) and temporal dynamics of land and water resource use spatial and temporal dynamics, under the effect of global drivers. We focus in particular on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the local to regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in socio-ecosystems behaviour. Our general ambition is to explore the feasibility of an approach that could be implemented worldwide through the identification of representative cases described by means of spatially explicit integrated simulations in communication with global modelling. Our specific objective is to test how ABMs can support scenario analysis at regional scale, and in particular how this can facilitate understanding of the role of human agency and its behavioural characteristics in local to global dynamics. The SES of interest is the agro-ecosystem with its relationships with other land uses. In order to test the feasibility of application at global level, all the information about land uses, natural resources, local climate, crop potential productions, etc. were derived from freely available spatial data sets covering the whole planet, which provided the ABM model with spatial information as matrices of pixels. Input maps were extracted from the Global Agro-Ecological Zone (GAEZ) web site of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and compiled in the local GIS from where they were then converted in a format compatible with Matlab. In this initial application, an ABM prototype was developed in three test areas around the Mediterranean Basin, in agricultural regions of Tunisia, Italy and Spain.

Dynamic strains for earthquake source characterization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbour, Andrew J.; Crowell, Brendan W

2017-01-01

Strainmeters measure elastodynamic deformation associated with earthquakes over a broad frequency band, with detection characteristics that complement traditional instrumentation, but they are commonly used to study slow transient deformation along active faults and at subduction zones, for example. Here, we analyze dynamic strains at Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO) borehole strainmeters (BSM) associated with 146 local and regional earthquakes from 2004–2014, with magnitudes from M 4.5 to 7.2. We find that peak values in seismic strain can be predicted from a general regression against distance and magnitude, with improvements in accuracy gained by accounting for biases associated with site–station effects and source–path effects, the latter exhibiting the strongest influence on the regression coefficients. To account for the influence of these biases in a general way, we include crustal‐type classifications from the CRUST1.0 global velocity model, which demonstrates that high‐frequency strain data from the PBO BSM network carry information on crustal structure and fault mechanics: earthquakes nucleating offshore on the Blanco fracture zone, for example, generate consistently lower dynamic strains than earthquakes around the Sierra Nevada microplate and in the Salton trough. Finally, we test our dynamic strain prediction equations on the 2011 M 9 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake, specifically continuous strain records derived from triangulation of 137 high‐rate Global Navigation Satellite System Earth Observation Network stations in Japan. Moment magnitudes inferred from these data and the strain model are in agreement when Global Positioning System subnetworks are unaffected by spatial aliasing.

Exploring tropical forest vegetation dynamics using the FATES model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koven, C. D.; Fisher, R.; Knox, R. G.; Chambers, J.; Kueppers, L. M.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Davies, S. J.; Dietze, M.; Holm, J.; Massoud, E. C.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Powell, T.; Serbin, S.; Shuman, J. K.; Walker, A. P.; Wright, S. J.; Xu, C.

2017-12-01

Tropical forest vegetation dynamics represent a critical climate feedback in the Earth system, which is poorly represented in current global modeling approaches. We discuss recent progress on exploring these dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a demographic vegetation model for the CESM and ACME ESMs. We will discuss benchmarks of FATES predictions for forest structure against inventory sites, sensitivity of FATES predictions of size and age structure to model parameter uncertainty, and experiments using the FATES model to explore PFT competitive dynamics and the dynamics of size and age distributions in responses to changing climate and CO2.

On the phenomenon of mixed dynamics in Pikovsky-Topaj system of coupled rotators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonchenko, A. S.; Gonchenko, S. V.; Kazakov, A. O.; Turaev, D. V.

2017-07-01

A one-parameter family of time-reversible systems on three-dimensional torus is considered. It is shown that the dynamics is not conservative, namely the attractor and repeller intersect but not coincide. We explain this as the manifestation of the so-called mixed dynamics phenomenon which corresponds to a persistent intersection of the closure of the stable periodic orbits and the closure of the completely unstable periodic orbits. We search for the stable and unstable periodic orbits indirectly, by finding non-conservative saddle periodic orbits and heteroclinic connections between them. In this way, we are able to claim the existence of mixed dynamics for a large range of parameter values. We investigate local and global bifurcations that can be used for the detection of mixed dynamics.

Dynamical Approach Study of Spurious Steady-State Numerical Solutions of Nonlinear Differential Equations. 2; Global Asymptotic Behavior of Time Discretizations; 2. Global Asymptotic Behavior of time Discretizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, H. C.; Sweby, P. K.

1995-01-01

The global asymptotic nonlinear behavior of 1 1 explicit and implicit time discretizations for four 2 x 2 systems of first-order autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODES) is analyzed. The objectives are to gain a basic understanding of the difference in the dynamics of numerics between the scalars and systems of nonlinear autonomous ODEs and to set a baseline global asymptotic solution behavior of these schemes for practical computations in computational fluid dynamics. We show how 'numerical' basins of attraction can complement the bifurcation diagrams in gaining more detailed global asymptotic behavior of time discretizations for nonlinear differential equations (DEs). We show how in the presence of spurious asymptotes the basins of the true stable steady states can be segmented by the basins of the spurious stable and unstable asymptotes. One major consequence of this phenomenon which is not commonly known is that this spurious behavior can result in a dramatic distortion and, in most cases, a dramatic shrinkage and segmentation of the basin of attraction of the true solution for finite time steps. Such distortion, shrinkage and segmentation of the numerical basins of attraction will occur regardless of the stability of the spurious asymptotes, and will occur for unconditionally stable implicit linear multistep methods. In other words, for the same (common) steady-state solution the associated basin of attraction of the DE might be very different from the discretized counterparts and the numerical basin of attraction can be very different from numerical method to numerical method. The results can be used as an explanation for possible causes of error, and slow convergence and nonconvergence of steady-state numerical solutions when using the time-dependent approach for nonlinear hyperbolic or parabolic PDES.

Large-Scale Dynamics of the Magnetospheric Boundary: Comparisons between Global MHD Simulation Results and ISTP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berchem, J.; Raeder, J.; Ashour-Abdalla, M.; Frank, L. A.; Paterson, W. R.; Ackerson, K. L.; Kokubun, S.; Yamamoto, T.; Lepping, R. P.

1998-01-01

Understanding the large-scale dynamics of the magnetospheric boundary is an important step towards achieving the ISTP mission's broad objective of assessing the global transport of plasma and energy through the geospace environment. Our approach is based on three-dimensional global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar wind-magnetosphere- ionosphere system, and consists of using interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and plasma parameters measured by solar wind monitors upstream of the bow shock as input to the simulations for predicting the large-scale dynamics of the magnetospheric boundary. The validity of these predictions is tested by comparing local data streams with time series measured by downstream spacecraft crossing the magnetospheric boundary. In this paper, we review results from several case studies which confirm that our MHD model reproduces very well the large-scale motion of the magnetospheric boundary. The first case illustrates the complexity of the magnetic field topology that can occur at the dayside magnetospheric boundary for periods of northward IMF with strong Bx and By components. The second comparison reviewed combines dynamic and topological aspects in an investigation of the evolution of the distant tail at 200 R(sub E) from the Earth.

Understanding why the volume of suboxic waters does not increase over centuries of global warming in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, A.; Dunne, J. P.; John, J.

2012-03-01

Global warming is expected to reduce oxygen solubility and vertical exchange in the ocean, changes which would be expected to result in an increase in the volume of hypoxic waters. A simulation made with a full Earth System model with dynamical atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and biogeochemical cycling (the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Earth System Model 2.1) shows that this holds true if the condition for hypoxia is set relatively high. However, the volume of the most hypoxic (i.e., suboxic) waters does not increase under global warming, as these waters actually become more oxygenated. We show that the rise in dissolved oxygen in the tropical Pacific is associated with a drop in ventilation time. A term-by-term analysis within the least oxygenated waters shows an increased supply of dissolved oxygen due to lateral diffusion compensating an increase in remineralization within these highly hypoxic waters. This lateral diffusive flux is the result of an increase of ventilation along the Chilean coast, as a drying of the region under global warming opens up a region of wintertime convection in our model. The results highlight the potential sensitivity of suboxic waters to changes in subtropical ventilation as well as the importance of constraining lateral eddy transport of dissolved oxygen in such waters.

Leo Szilard Lectureship Award Talk - Universal Scaling Laws from Cells to Cities; A Physicist's Search for Quantitative, Unified Theories of Biological and Social Structure and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, Geoffrey

2013-04-01

Many of the most challenging, exciting and profound questions facing science and society, from the origins of life to global sustainability, fall under the banner of ``complex adaptive systems.'' This talk explores how scaling can be used to begin to develop physics-inspired quantitative, predictive, coarse-grained theories for understanding their structure, dynamics and organization based on underlying mathematisable principles. Remarkably, most physiological, organisational and life history phenomena in biology and socio-economic systems scale in a simple and ``universal'' fashion: metabolic rate scales approximately as the 3/4-power of mass over 27 orders of magnitude from complex molecules to the largest organisms. Time-scales (such as lifespans and growth-rates) and sizes (such as genome lengths and RNA densities) scale with exponents which are typically simple multiples of 1/4, suggesting that fundamental constraints underlie much of the generic structure and dynamics of living systems. These scaling laws follow from dynamical and geometrical properties of space-filling, fractal-like, hierarchical branching networks, presumed optimised by natural selection. This leads to a general framework that potentially captures essential features of diverse systems including vasculature, ontogenetic growth, cancer, aging and mortality, sleep, cell size, and DNA nucleotide substitution rates. Cities and companies also scale: wages, profits, patents, crime, disease, pollution, road lengths scale similarly across the globe, reflecting underlying universal social network dynamics which point to general principles of organization transcending their individuality. These have dramatic implications for global sustainability: innovation and wealth creation that fuel social systems, left unchecked, potentially sow the seeds for their inevitable collapse.

Global identification of stochastic dynamical systems under different pseudo-static operating conditions: The functionally pooled ARMAX case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakellariou, J. S.; Fassois, S. D.

2017-01-01

The identification of a single global model for a stochastic dynamical system operating under various conditions is considered. Each operating condition is assumed to have a pseudo-static effect on the dynamics and be characterized by a single measurable scheduling variable. Identification is accomplished within a recently introduced Functionally Pooled (FP) framework, which offers a number of advantages over Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) identification techniques. The focus of the work is on the extension of the framework to include the important FP-ARMAX model case. Compared to their simpler FP-ARX counterparts, FP-ARMAX models are much more general and offer improved flexibility in describing various types of stochastic noise, but at the same time lead to a more complicated, non-quadratic, estimation problem. Prediction Error (PE), Maximum Likelihood (ML), and multi-stage estimation methods are postulated, and the PE estimator optimality, in terms of consistency and asymptotic efficiency, is analytically established. The postulated estimators are numerically assessed via Monte Carlo experiments, while the effectiveness of the approach and its superiority over its FP-ARX counterpart are demonstrated via an application case study pertaining to simulated railway vehicle suspension dynamics under various mass loading conditions.

The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0/6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0/6.1 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walters, David; Boutle, Ian; Brooks, Malcolm; Melvin, Thomas; Stratton, Rachel; Vosper, Simon; Wells, Helen; Williams, Keith; Wood, Nigel; Allen, Thomas; Bushell, Andrew; Copsey, Dan; Earnshaw, Paul; Edwards, John; Gross, Markus; Hardiman, Steven; Harris, Chris; Heming, Julian; Klingaman, Nicholas; Levine, Richard; Manners, James; Martin, Gill; Milton, Sean; Mittermaier, Marion; Morcrette, Cyril; Riddick, Thomas; Roberts, Malcolm; Sanchez, Claudio; Selwood, Paul; Stirling, Alison; Smith, Chris; Suri, Dan; Tennant, Warren; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wilkinson, Jonathan; Willett, Martin; Woolnough, Steve; Xavier, Prince

2017-04-01

We describe Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Land 6.0 (GA6.0/GL6.0): the latest science configurations of the Met Office Unified Model and JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) land surface model developed for use across all timescales. Global Atmosphere 6.0 includes the ENDGame (Even Newer Dynamics for General atmospheric modelling of the environment) dynamical core, which significantly increases mid-latitude variability improving a known model bias. Alongside developments of the model's physical parametrisations, ENDGame also increases variability in the tropics, which leads to an improved representation of tropical cyclones and other tropical phenomena. Further developments of the atmospheric and land surface parametrisations improve other aspects of model performance, including the forecasting of surface weather phenomena. We also describe GA6.1/GL6.1, which includes a small number of long-standing differences from our main trunk configurations that we continue to require for operational global weather prediction. Since July 2014, GA6.1/GL6.1 has been used by the Met Office for operational global numerical weather prediction, whilst GA6.0/GL6.0 was implemented in its remaining global prediction systems over the following year.

Predicting Earth orientation changes from global forecasts of atmosphere-hydrosphere dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobslaw, Henryk; Dill, Robert

2018-02-01

Effective Angular Momentum (EAM) functions obtained from global numerical simulations of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface dynamics are routinely processed by the Earth System Modelling group at Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum. EAM functions are available since January 1976 with up to 3 h temporal resolution. Additionally, 6 days-long EAM forecasts are routinely published every day. Based on hindcast experiments with 305 individual predictions distributed over 15 months, we demonstrate that EAM forecasts improve the prediction accuracy of the Earth Orientation Parameters at all forecast horizons between 1 and 6 days. At day 6, prediction accuracy improves down to 1.76 mas for the terrestrial pole offset, and 2.6 mas for Δ UT1, which correspond to an accuracy increase of about 41% over predictions published in Bulletin A by the International Earth Rotation and Reference System Service.

Constraints on Pacific plate kinematics and dynamics with global positioning system measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dixon, T. H.; Golombek, M. P.; Thornton, C. L.

1985-01-01

A measurement program designed to investigate kinematic and dynamic aspects of plate tectonics in the Pacific region by means of satellite observations is proposed. Accuracy studies are summarized showing that for short baselines (less than 100 km), the measuring accuracy of global positioning system (GPS) receivers can be in the centimeter range. For longer baselines, uncertainty in the orbital ephemerides of the GPS satellites could be a major source of error. Simultaneous observations at widely (about 300 km) separated fiducial stations over the Pacific region, should permit an accuracy in the centimeter range for baselines of up to several thousand kilometers. The optimum performance level is based on the assumption of that fiducial baselines are known a priori to the centimeter range. An example fiducial network for a GPS study of the South Pacific region is described.

Geodetic positioning using a global positioning system of satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fell, P. J.

1980-01-01

Geodetic positioning using range, integrated Doppler, and interferometric observations from a constellation of twenty-four Global Positioning System satellites is analyzed. A summary of the proposals for geodetic positioning and baseline determination is given which includes a description of measurement techniques and comments on rank deficiency and error sources. An analysis of variance comparison of range, Doppler, and interferometric time delay to determine their relative geometric strength for baseline determination is included. An analytic examination to the effect of a priori constraints on positioning using simultaneous observations from two stations is presented. Dynamic point positioning and baseline determination using range and Doppler is examined in detail. Models for the error sources influencing dynamic positioning are developed. Included is a discussion of atomic clock stability, and range and Doppler observation error statistics based on random correlated atomic clock error are derived.

The geometry of chaotic dynamics — a complex network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, R. V.; Heitzig, J.; Donges, J. F.; Zou, Y.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2011-12-01

Recently, several complex network approaches to time series analysis have been developed and applied to study a wide range of model systems as well as real-world data, e.g., geophysical or financial time series. Among these techniques, recurrence-based concepts and prominently ɛ-recurrence networks, most faithfully represent the geometrical fine structure of the attractors underlying chaotic (and less interestingly non-chaotic) time series. In this paper we demonstrate that the well known graph theoretical properties local clustering coefficient and global (network) transitivity can meaningfully be exploited to define two new local and two new global measures of dimension in phase space: local upper and lower clustering dimension as well as global upper and lower transitivity dimension. Rigorous analytical as well as numerical results for self-similar sets and simple chaotic model systems suggest that these measures are well-behaved in most non-pathological situations and that they can be estimated reasonably well using ɛ-recurrence networks constructed from relatively short time series. Moreover, we study the relationship between clustering and transitivity dimensions on the one hand, and traditional measures like pointwise dimension or local Lyapunov dimension on the other hand. We also provide further evidence that the local clustering coefficients, or equivalently the local clustering dimensions, are useful for identifying unstable periodic orbits and other dynamically invariant objects from time series. Our results demonstrate that ɛ-recurrence networks exhibit an important link between dynamical systems and graph theory.

On the dynamics of the world demographic transition and financial-economic crises forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akaev, A.; Sadovnichy, V.; Korotayev, A.

2012-05-01

The article considers dynamic processes involving non-linear power-law behavior in such apparently diverse spheres, as demographic dynamics and dynamics of prices of highly liquid commodities such as oil and gold. All the respective variables exhibit features of explosive growth containing precursors indicating approaching phase transitions/catastrophes/crises. The first part of the article analyzes mathematical models of demographic dynamics that describe various scenarios of demographic development in the post-phase-transition period, including a model that takes the limitedness of the Earth carrying capacity into account. This model points to a critical point in the early 2050s, when the world population, after reaching its maximum value may decrease afterward stabilizing then at a certain stationary level. The article presents an analysis of the influence of the demographic transition (directly connected with the hyperexponential growth of the world population) on the global socioeconomic and geopolitical development. The second part deals with the phenomenon of explosive growth of prices of such highly liquid commodities as oil and gold. It is demonstrated that at present the respective processes could be regarded as precursors of waves of the global financial-economic crisis that will demand the change of the current global economic and political system. It is also shown that the moments of the start of the first and second waves of the current global crisis could have been forecasted with a model of accelerating log-periodic fluctuations superimposed over a power-law trend with a finite singularity developed by Didier Sornette and collaborators. With respect to the oil prices, it is shown that it was possible to forecast the 2008 crisis with a precision up to a month already in 2007. The gold price dynamics was used to calculate the possible time of the start of the second wave of the global crisis (July-August 2011); note that this forecast has turned out to be quite correct.

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Treesearch

Mercedes M. C. Bustamante; Iris Roitman; T. Mitchell Aide; Ane Alencar; Liana O. Anderson; Luiz Aragao; Gregory P. Asner; Jos Barlow; Erika Berenguer; Jeffrey Chambers; Marcos H. Costa; Thierry Fanin; Laerte G. Ferreira; Joice Ferreira; Michael Keller; William E. Magnusson; Lucia Morales-Barquero; Douglas Morton; Jean P. H. B. Ometto; Michael Palace; Carlos A. Peres; Divino Silverio; Susan Trumbore; Ima C. G. Vieira

2015-01-01

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks...

Focus Upon Implementing the GGOS Decadal Vision for Geohazards Monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LaBrecque, John; Stangl, Gunter

2017-04-01

The Global Geodetic Observing System of the IAG identified present and future roles for Geodesy in the development and well being of the global society. The GGOS is focused upon the development of infrastructure, information, analysis, and educational systems to advance the International Global Reference Frame, the International Celestial Reference System, the International Height Reference System, atmospheric dynamics, sea level change and geohazards monitoring. The geohazards initiative is guided by an eleven nation working group initially focused upon the development and integration of regional multi-GNSS networks and analysis systems for earthquake and tsunami early warning. The opportunities and challenges being addressed by the Geohazards working group include regional network design, algorithm development and implementation, communications, funding, and international agreements on data access. This presentation will discuss in further detail these opportunities and challenges for the GGOS focus upon earthquake and tsunami early warning.

Uncovering low dimensional macroscopic chaotic dynamics of large finite size complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skardal, Per Sebastian; Restrepo, Juan G.; Ott, Edward

2017-08-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that a large class of phase oscillator models admit low dimensional descriptions for the macroscopic system dynamics in the limit of an infinite number N of oscillators. The question of whether the macroscopic dynamics of other similar systems also have a low dimensional description in the infinite N limit has, however, remained elusive. In this paper, we show how techniques originally designed to analyze noisy experimental chaotic time series can be used to identify effective low dimensional macroscopic descriptions from simulations with a finite number of elements. We illustrate and verify the effectiveness of our approach by applying it to the dynamics of an ensemble of globally coupled Landau-Stuart oscillators for which we demonstrate low dimensional macroscopic chaotic behavior with an effective 4-dimensional description. By using this description, we show that one can calculate dynamical invariants such as Lyapunov exponents and attractor dimensions. One could also use the reconstruction to generate short-term predictions of the macroscopic dynamics.

Global modeling of soil evaporation efficiency for a chosen soil type

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgiana Stefan, Vivien; Mangiarotti, Sylvain; Merlin, Olivier; Chanzy, André

2016-04-01

One way of reproducing the dynamics of a system is by deriving a set of differential, difference or discrete equations directly from observational time series. A method for obtaining such a system is the global modeling technique [1]. The approach is here applied to the dynamics of soil evaporative efficiency (SEE), defined as the ratio of actual to potential evaporation. SEE is an interesting variable to study since it is directly linked to soil evaporation (LE) which plays an important role in the water cycle and since it can be easily derived from satellite measurements. One goal of the present work is to get a semi-empirical parameter that could account for the variety of the SEE dynamical behaviors resulting from different soil properties. Before trying to obtain such a semi-empirical parameter with the global modeling technique, it is first necessary to prove that this technique can be applied to the dynamics of SEE without any a priori information. The global modeling technique is thus applied here to a synthetic series of SEE, reconstructed from the TEC (Transfert Eau Chaleur) model [2]. It is found that an autonomous chaotic model can be retrieved for the dynamics of SEE. The obtained model is four-dimensional and exhibits a complex behavior. The comparison of the original and the model phase portraits shows a very good consistency that proves that the original dynamical behavior is well described by the model. To evaluate the model accuracy, the forecasting error growth is estimated. To get a robust estimate of this error growth, the forecasting error is computed for prediction horizons of 0 to 9 hours, starting from different initial conditions and statistics of the error growth are thus performed. Results show that, for a maximum error level of 40% of the signal variance, the horizon of predictability is close to 3 hours, approximately one third of the diurnal part of day. These results are interesting for various reasons. To the best of our knowledge, it is the very first time that a chaotic model is obtained for the SEE. It also shows that the SEE dynamics can be approximated by a low-dimensional autonomous model. From a theoretical point of view, it is also interesting to note that only very few low-dimensional models could be directly obtained for environmental dynamics, and that four-dimensional models are even rarer. Since a model could be obtained for the SEE, it can be expected, now, to adapt the global modeling technique and to apply it to a range of different soil conditions in order to get a global model that would account for the variability of soil properties. [1] MANGIAROTTI S., COUDRET R., DRAPEAU L., JARLAN L. Polynomial search and global modeling: two algorithms for modeling chaos. Physical Review E, 86(4), 046205, 2012. [2] CHANZY A., MUMEN M., RICHARD G. Accuracy of the top soil moisture simulation using a mechanistic model with limited soil characterization. Water Resources Research, 44, W03432, 2008.

Integrating Unified Gravity Wave Physics into the NOAA Next Generation Global Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alpert, J. C.; Yudin, V.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Akmaev, R. A.

2017-12-01

The Unified Gravity Wave Physics (UGWP) project for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is a NOAA collaborative effort between the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Environemntal Modeling Center (EMC) and the University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CU-CIRES) to support upgrades and improvements of GW dynamics (resolved scales) and physics (sub-grid scales) in the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)†. As envisioned the global climate, weather and space weather models of NEMS will substantially improve their predictions and forecasts with the resolution-sensitive (scale-aware) formulations planned under the UGWP framework for both orographic and non-stationary waves. In particular, the planned improvements for the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of NEMS are: calibration of model physics for higher vertical and horizontal resolution and an extended vertical range of simulations, upgrades to GW schemes, including the turbulent heating and eddy mixing due to wave dissipation and breaking, and representation of the internally-generated QBO. The main priority of the UGWP project is unified parameterization of orographic and non-orographic GW effects including momentum deposition in the middle atmosphere and turbulent heating and eddies due to wave dissipation and breaking. The latter effects are not currently represented in NOAA atmosphere models. The team has tested and evaluated four candidate GW solvers integrating the selected GW schemes into the NGGPS model. Our current work and planned activity is to implement the UGWP schemes in the first available GFS/FV3 (open FV3) configuration including adapted GFDL modification for sub-grid orography in GFS. Initial global model results will be shown for the operational and research GFS configuration for spectral and FV3 dynamical cores. †http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=NEMS

Uniform Persistence and Global Stability for a Brain Tumor and Immune System Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khajanchi, Subhas

This paper describes the synergistic interaction between the growth of malignant gliomas and the immune system interactions using a system of coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The proposed mathematical model comprises the interaction of glioma cells, macrophages, activated Cytotoxic T-Lymphocytes (CTLs), the immunosuppressive factor TGF-β and the immuno-stimulatory factor IFN-γ. The dynamical behavior of the proposed system both analytically and numerically is investigated from the point of view of stability. By constructing Lyapunov functions, the global behavior of the glioma-free and the interior equilibrium point have been analyzed under some assumptions. Finally, we perform numerical simulations in order to illustrate our analytical findings by varying the system parameters.

Simulations of Tornadoes, Tropical Cyclones, MJOs, and QBOs, using GFDL's multi-scale global climate modeling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey; Zhao, Ming

2014-05-01

A multi-scale High-Resolution Atmosphere Model (HiRAM) is being developed at NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. The model's dynamical framework is the non-hydrostatic extension of the vertically Lagrangian finite-volume dynamical core (Lin 2004, Monthly Wea. Rev.) constructed on a stretchable (via Schmidt transformation) cubed-sphere grid. Physical parametrizations originally designed for IPCC-type climate predictions are in the process of being modified and made more "scale-aware", in an effort to make the model suitable for multi-scale weather-climate applications, with horizontal resolution ranging from 1 km (near the target high-resolution region) to as low as 400 km (near the antipodal point). One of the main goals of this development is to enable simulation of high impact weather phenomena (such as tornadoes, thunderstorms, category-5 hurricanes) within an IPCC-class climate modeling system previously thought impossible. We will present preliminary results, covering a very wide spectrum of temporal-spatial scales, ranging from simulation of tornado genesis (hours), Madden-Julian Oscillations (intra-seasonal), topical cyclones (seasonal), to Quasi Biennial Oscillations (intra-decadal), using the same global multi-scale modeling system.

Stochastic global identification of a bio-inspired self-sensing composite UAV wing via wind tunnel experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotios; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Wang, Pengchuan; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2016-04-01

In this work, the system design, integration, and wind tunnel experimental evaluation are presented for a bioinspired self-sensing intelligent composite unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) wing. A total of 148 micro-sensors, including piezoelectric, strain, and temperature sensors, in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the layup of a composite wing in order to enable its self-sensing capabilities. Novel stochastic system identification techniques based on time series models and statistical parameter estimation are employed in order to accurately interpret the sensing data and extract real-time information on the coupled air flow-structural dynamics. Special emphasis is given to the wind tunnel experimental assessment under various flight conditions defined by multiple airspeeds and angles of attack. A novel modeling approach based on the recently introduced Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) model structure is employed for the stochastic identification of the "global" coupled airflow-structural dynamics of the wing and their correlation with dynamic utter and stall. The obtained results demonstrate the successful system-level integration and effectiveness of the stochastic identification approach, thus opening new perspectives for the state sensing and awareness capabilities of the next generation of "fly-by-fee" UAVs.

Identification of Characterization Factor for Power System Oscillation Based on Multiple Synchronized Phasor Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashiguchi, Takuhei; Watanabe, Masayuki; Matsushita, Akihiro; Mitani, Yasunori; Saeki, Osamu; Tsuji, Kiichiro; Hojo, Masahide; Ukai, Hiroyuki

Electric power systems in Japan are composed of remote and distributed location of generators and loads mainly concentrated in large demand areas. The structures having long distance transmission tend to produce heavy power flow with increasing electric power demand. In addition, some independent power producers (IPP) and power producer and suppliers (PPS) are participating in the power generation business, which makes power system dynamics more complex. However, there was little observation as a whole power system. In this paper the authors present a global monitoring system of power system dynamics by using the synchronized phasor measurement of demand side outlets. Phasor Measurement Units (PMU) are synchronized based on the global positioning system (GPS). The purpose of this paper is to show oscillation characteristics and methods for processing original data obtained from PMU after certain power system disturbances triggered by some accidents. This analysis resulted in the observation of the lowest and the second lowest frequency mode. The derivation of eigenvalue with two degree of freedom model brings a monitoring of two oscillation modes. Signal processing based on Wavelet analysis and simulation studies to illustrate the obtained phenomena are demonstrated in detail.

Work stealing for GPU-accelerated parallel programs in a global address space framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arafat, Humayun; Dinan, James; Krishnamoorthy, Sriram

Task parallelism is an attractive approach to automatically load balance the computation in a parallel system and adapt to dynamism exhibited by parallel systems. Exploiting task parallelism through work stealing has been extensively studied in shared and distributed-memory contexts. In this paper, we study the design of a system that uses work stealing for dynamic load balancing of task-parallel programs executed on hybrid distributed-memory CPU-graphics processing unit (GPU) systems in a global-address space framework. We take into account the unique nature of the accelerator model employed by GPUs, the significant performance difference between GPU and CPU execution as a functionmore » of problem size, and the distinct CPU and GPU memory domains. We consider various alternatives in designing a distributed work stealing algorithm for CPU-GPU systems, while taking into account the impact of task distribution and data movement overheads. These strategies are evaluated using microbenchmarks that capture various execution configurations as well as the state-of-the-art CCSD(T) application module from the computational chemistry domain« less

DYNAMIC: A Decadal Survey and NASA Roadmap Mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paxton, L. J.; Oberheide, J.

2016-12-01

In this talk we will review the DYNAMIC mission science and implementation plans. DYNAMIC is baselined as a two satellite mission to delineate the dynamical behavior and structure of the ionosphere, thermosphere and mesosphere system. DYNAMIC was considered the top priority in the Decadal Survey upper atmosphere missions by the AIMI panel. The NASA Heliophysics Roadmap recommended that consideration be given to flying DYNAMIC as the STP 5 (next STP mission) rather than IMAP given the time-lag between the Decadal Survey recommendations and the flight of the STP 5 mission. It certainly seems as though STP 5 will be the IMAP mission. In that case what is the status of DYNAMIC? DYNAMIC could be STP 6 or some portion of the DYNAMIC mission could be executed as the next MidEx mission. In this talk we discuss the DYNAMIC science questions and goals and how they might be addressed. We note that DYNAMIC is not a mission just for the space community. DYNAMIC will enable new groundbased investigations and provide a global context for the long and rich history of groundbased observations of the dynamical state of the ITM system. Issues include: How and to what extent do waves and tides in the lower atmosphere contribute to the variability and mean state of the IT system? [Mission driver: Must have two spacecraft separated in local solar time in near polar orbits] How does the AIM system respond to outside forcing? [Mission Driver: Must measure high latitude inputs] How do neutral-plasma interactions produce neutral and ionospheric density changes over regional and global scales? [Mission Driver: Must measure all major species (O, N2, O2, H, He) and their ions] What part of the IT response occurs in the form of aurorally generated waves? [Mission Driver: Must measure small and mesoscale phenomena at high latitudes] What is the relative importance of thermal expansion, upwelling and advection in defining total mass density changes? [Mission Driver: Must determine the mid-latitude dynamics and response to external forcing for all species.] Clearly the best possible return from this NASA mission is with the broad support, collaboration and participation from the entire ITM whether their focus is on spacebased measurements, groundbased measurements, or modeling and theory.

Modeling of Global BEAM Structure for Evaluation of MMOD Impacts to Support Development of a Health Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Vassilakos, Gregory J.

2015-01-01

This report summarizes the initial modeling of the global response of the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) to micrometeorite and orbital debris(MMOD) impacts using a structural, nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element code. These models complement the on-orbit deployment of the Distributed Impact Detection System (DIDS) to support structural health monitoring studies. Two global models were developed. The first focused exclusively on impacts on the soft-goods (fabric-envelop) portion of BEAM. The second incorporates the bulkhead to support understanding of bulkhead impacts. These models were exercised for random impact locations and responses monitored at the on-orbit sensor locations. The report concludes with areas for future study.

Act global, but think local: accountability at the frontlines.

PubMed

Freedman, Lynn P; Schaaf, Marta

2013-11-01

There is a worrying divergence between the way that sexual and reproductive health and rights problems and solutions are framed in advocacy at the global level and the complex reality that people experience in health services on the ground. An analysis of approaches to accountability used in advocacy at these different levels highlights the different assumptions at play as to how change happens. This paper makes the case for a reinvigorated approach to accountability that begins with the dynamics of power at the frontlines, where people encounter health providers and institutions. Conventional approaches to accountability avoid grappling with these dynamics, and as a result, many accountability efforts do not lead to transformative change. Implementation science and systems science are promising sources for fresh approaches, beginning with the understanding of health systems as complex adaptive systems embedded in the broader political dynamics of their societies. By drawing insights from disciplines such as political economy, ethnography, and organizational change management - and applying them creatively to the experience of people in health systems - the workings of power can begin to be uncovered and tackled, sharpening accountability towards those whose health and rights are at stake and generating meaningful change. Copyright © 2013 Reproductive Health Matters. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harnessing Big Data to Represent 30-meter Spatial Heterogeneity in Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaney, N.; Shevliakova, E.; Malyshev, S.; Van Huijgevoort, M.; Milly, C.; Sulman, B. N.

2016-12-01

Terrestrial land surface processes play a critical role in the Earth system; they have a profound impact on the global climate, food and energy production, freshwater resources, and biodiversity. One of the most fascinating yet challenging aspects of characterizing terrestrial ecosystems is their field-scale (˜30 m) spatial heterogeneity. It has been observed repeatedly that the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles at multiple temporal and spatial scales have deep ties to an ecosystem's spatial structure. Current Earth system models largely disregard this important relationship leading to an inadequate representation of ecosystem dynamics. In this presentation, we will show how existing global environmental datasets can be harnessed to explicitly represent field-scale spatial heterogeneity in Earth system models. For each macroscale grid cell, these environmental data are clustered according to their field-scale soil and topographic attributes to define unique sub-grid tiles. The state-of-the-art Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model is then used to simulate these tiles and their spatial interactions via the exchange of water, energy, and nutrients along explicit topographic gradients. Using historical simulations over the contiguous United States, we will show how a robust representation of field-scale spatial heterogeneity impacts modeled ecosystem dynamics including the water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles as well as vegetation composition and distribution.

Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises.

PubMed

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-03-31

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.

Regional reanalysis without local data: Exploiting the downscaling paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Hans; Feser, Frauke; Geyer, Beate; Klehmet, Katharina; Li, Delei; Rockel, Burkhardt; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-08-01

This paper demonstrates two important aspects of regional dynamical downscaling of multidecadal atmospheric reanalysis. First, that in this way skillful regional descriptions of multidecadal climate variability may be constructed in regions with little or no local data. Second, that the concept of large-scale constraining allows global downscaling, so that global reanalyses may be completed by additions of consistent detail in all regions of the world. Global reanalyses suffer from inhomogeneities. However, their large-scale componenst are mostly homogeneous; Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complement the large-scale state of the reanalyses with regional detail—wherever the condition of homogeneity of the description of large scales is fulfilled. Technically, this can be done by dynamical downscaling using a regional or global climate model, which's large scales are constrained by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional weather risks—in particular marine risks—was identified. We have run this system in regions with reduced or absent local data coverage, such as Central Siberia, the Bohai and Yellow Sea, Southwestern Africa, and the South Atlantic. Also, a global simulation was computed, which adds regional features to prescribed global dynamics. Our cases demonstrate that spatially detailed reconstructions of the climate state and its change in the recent three to six decades add useful supplementary information to existing observational data for midlatitude and subtropical regions of the world.

Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.; Braconnot, Pascale; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Kang, Sarah M.; Mapes, Brian E.; Scheff, Jacob; Schumacher, Courtney; Sobel, Adam H.; Xie, Shang-Ping

2018-06-01

Global constraints on momentum and energy govern the variability of the rainfall belt in the intertropical convergence zone and the structure of the zonal mean tropical circulation. The continental-scale monsoon systems are also facets of a momentum- and energy-constrained global circulation, but their modern and palaeo variability deviates substantially from that of the intertropical convergence zone. The mechanisms underlying deviations from expectations based on the longitudinal mean budgets are neither fully understood nor simulated accurately. We argue that a framework grounded in global constraints on energy and momentum yet encompassing the complexities of monsoon dynamics is needed to identify the causes of the mismatch between theory, models and observations, and ultimately to improve regional climate projections. In a first step towards this goal, disparate regional processes must be distilled into gross measures of energy flow in and out of continents and between the surface and the tropopause, so that monsoon dynamics may be coherently diagnosed across modern and palaeo observations and across idealized and comprehensive simulations. Accounting for zonal asymmetries in the circulation, land/ocean differences in surface fluxes, and the character of convective systems, such a monsoon framework would integrate our understanding at all relevant scales: from the fine details of how moisture and energy are lifted in the updrafts of thunderclouds, up to the global circulations.

Dynamics, integrability and topology for some classes of Kolmogorov Hamiltonian systems in R+4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llibre, Jaume; Xiao, Dongmei

2017-02-01

In this paper we first give the sufficient and necessary conditions in order that two classes of polynomial Kolmogorov systems in R+4 are Hamiltonian systems. Then we study the integrability of these Hamiltonian systems in the Liouville sense. Finally, we investigate the global dynamics of the completely integrable Lotka-Volterra Hamiltonian systems in R+4. As an application of the invariant subsets of these systems, we obtain topological classifications of the 3-submanifolds in R+4 defined by the hypersurfaces axy + bzw + cx2 y + dxy2 + ez2 w + fzw2 = h, where a , b , c , d , e , f , w and h are real constants.

The Tropospheric Wind Lidar Technology Experiment (TWiLiTE): An Airborne Direct Detection Doppler Lidar Instrument Development Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gentry, Bruce; McGill, Matthew; Schwemmer, Geary; Hardesty, Michael; Brewer, Alan; Wilkerson, Thomas; Atlas, Robert; Sirota, Marcos; Lindemann, Scott

2006-01-01

Global measurement of tropospheric winds is a key measurement for understanding atmospheric dynamics and improving numerical weather prediction. Global wind profiles remain a high priority for the operational weather community and also for a variety of research applications including studies of the global hydrologic cycle and transport studies of aerosols and trace species. In addition to space based winds, a high altitude airborne system flown on UAV or other advanced platforms would be of great interest for studying mesoscale dynamics and hurricanes. The Tropospheric Wind Lidar Technology Experiment (TWiLiTE) project was selected in 2005 by the NASA Earth Sun Technology Office as part of the Instrument Incubator Program. TWiLiTE will leverage significant research and development investments in key technologies made in the past several years. The primary focus will be on integrating these sub-systems into a complete molecular direct detection Doppler wind lidar system designed for autonomous operation on a high altitude aircraft, such as the NASA WB57, so that the nadir viewing lidar will be able to profile winds through the full troposphere. TWiLiTE is a collaboration involving scientists and technologists from NASA Goddard, NOAA ESRL, Utah State University Space Dynamics Lab and industry partners Michigan Aerospace Corporation and Sigma Space Corporation. NASA Goddard and it's partners have been at the forefront in the development of key lidar technologies (lasers, telescopes, scanning systems, detectors and receivers) required to enable spaceborne global wind lidar measurement. The TWiLiTE integrated airborne Doppler lidar instrument will be the first demonstration of a airborne scanning direct detection Doppler lidar and will serve as a critical milestone on the path to a fixture spaceborne tropospheric wind system. The completed system will have the capability to profile winds in clear air from the aircraft altitude of 18 h to the surface with 250 m vertical resolution and less than 2 meters per second velocity accuracy. The instrument design, technologies and predicted performance will be presented.

Dynamical amplification of Arctic and global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alekseev, Genrikh; Ivanov, Nikolai; Kharlanenkova, Natalia; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Bobylev, Leonid; Gnatiuk, Natalia; Urazgildeeva, Aleksandra

2015-04-01

The Arctic is coupled with global climate system by the atmosphere and ocean circulation that provides a major contribution to the Arctic energy budget. Therefore increase of meridional heat transport under global warming can impact on its Arctic amplification. Contribution of heat transport to the recent warming in the Arctic, Northern Hemisphere and the globe are estimated on base of reanalysis data, global climate model data and proposed special index. It is shown that significant part of linear trend during last four decades in average surface air temperature in these areas can be attributed to dynamical amplification. This attribution keeps until 400 mb height with progressive decreasing. The Arctic warming is amplified also due to an increase of humidity and cloudiness in the Arctic atmosphere that follow meridional transport gain. From October to January the Arctic warming trends are amplified as a result of ice edge retreat from the Siberian and Alaska coast and the heating of expanded volume of sea water. This investigation is supported with RFBR project 15-05-03512.

Information model of trainee characteristics with definition of stochastic behavior of dynamic system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumin, V. I.; Smolentseva, T. E.; Belokurov, S. V.; Lankin, O. V.

2018-03-01

In the work the process of formation of trainee characteristics with their subsequent change is analyzed and analyzed. Characteristics of trainees were obtained as a result of testing for each section of information on the chosen discipline. The results obtained during testing were input to the dynamic system. The area of control actions consisting of elements of the dynamic system is formed. The limit of deterministic predictability of element trajectories in dynamical systems based on local or global attractors is revealed. The dimension of the phase space of the dynamic system is determined, which allows estimating the parameters of the initial system. On the basis of time series of observations, it is possible to determine the predictability interval of all parameters, which make it possible to determine the behavior of the system discretely in time. Then the measure of predictability will be the sum of Lyapunov’s positive indicators, which are a quantitative measure for all elements of the system. The components for the formation of an algorithm allowing to determine the correlation dimension of the attractor for known initial experimental values of the variables are revealed. The generated algorithm makes it possible to carry out an experimental study of the dynamics of changes in the trainee’s parameters with initial uncertainty.

Carbon fate in a large temperate human-impacted river system: Focus on benthic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilmin, Lauriane; Flipo, Nicolas; Escoffier, Nicolas; Rocher, Vincent; Groleau, Alexis

2016-07-01

Fluvial networks play an important role in regional and global carbon (C) budgets. The Seine River, from the Paris urban area to the entrance of its estuary (220 km), is studied here as an example of a large human-impacted river system subject to temperate climatic conditions. We assess organic C (OC) budgets upstream and downstream from one of the world's largest wastewater treatment plants and for different hydrological conditions using a hydrobiogeochemical model. The fine representation of sediment accumulation on the river bed allows for the quantification of pelagic and benthic effects on OC export toward the estuary and on river metabolism (i.e., net CO2 production). OC export is significantly affected by benthic dynamics during the driest periods, when 25% of the inputs to the system is transformed or stored in the sediment layer. Benthic processes also substantially affect river metabolism under any hydrological condition. On average, benthic respiration accounts for one third of the total river respiration along the studied stretch (0.27 out of 0.86 g C m-2 d-1). Even though the importance of benthic processes was already acknowledged by the scientific community for headwater streams, these results stress the major influence of benthic dynamics, and thus of physical processes such as sedimentation and resuspension, on C cycling in downstream river systems. It opens the door to new developments in the quantification of C emissions by global models, whereby biogeochemical processing and benthic dynamics should be taken into account.

Seasonal Water Balance Forecasts for Drought Early Warning in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas; Liniger, Mark

2016-04-01

Droughts severely impact Ethiopian agricultural production. Successful early warning for drought conditions in the upcoming harvest season therefore contributes to better managing food shortages arising from adverse climatic conditions. So far, however, meteorological seasonal forecasts have not been used in Ethiopia's national food security early warning system (i.e. the LEAP platform). Here we analyse the forecast quality of seasonal forecasts of total rainfall and of the meteorological water balance as a proxy for plant available water. We analyse forecast skill of June to September rainfall and water balance from dynamical seasonal forecast systems, the ECMWF System4 and EC-EARTH global forecasting systems. Rainfall forecasts outperform forecasts assuming a stationary climate mainly in north-eastern Ethiopia - an area that is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Forecasts of the water balance index seem to be even more skilful and thus more useful than pure rainfall forecasts. The results vary though for different lead times and skill measures employed. We further explore the potential added value of dynamically downscaling the forecasts through several dynamical regional climate models made available through the EU FP7 project EUPORIAS. Preliminary results suggest that dynamically downscaled seasonal forecasts are not significantly better compared with seasonal forecasts from the global models. We conclude that seasonal forecasts of a simple climate index such as the water balance have the potential to benefit drought early warning in Ethiopia, both due to its positive predictive skill and higher usefulness than seasonal mean quantities.

The Tangent Linear and Adjoint of the FV3 Dynamical Core: Development and Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel

2018-01-01

GMAO (NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) has developed a highly sophisticated adjoint modeling system based on the most recent version of the finite volume cubed sphere (FV3) dynamical core. This provides a mechanism for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions and examining observation impacts. It also allows for the computation of singular vectors and for the implementation of hybrid 4DVAR (4-Dimensional Variational Assimilation). In this work we will present the scientific assessment of the new adjoint system and show results from a number of research application of the adjoint system.

Geospace Science from Ground-based Magnetometer Arrays: Advances in Sensors, Data Collection, and Data Integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ian; Chi, Peter

2016-07-01

Networks of ground-based magnetometers now provide the basis for the diagnosis of magnetic disturbances associated with solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling on a truly global scale. Advances in sensor and digitisation technologies offer increases in sensitivity in fluxgate, induction coil, and new micro-sensor technologies - including the promise of hybrid sensors. Similarly, advances in remote connectivity provide the capacity for truly real-time monitoring of global dynamics at cadences sufficient for monitoring and in many cases resolving system level spatio-temporal ambiguities especially in combination with conjugate satellite measurements. A wide variety of the plasmaphysical processes active in driving geospace dynamics can be monitored based on the response of the electrical current system, including those associated with changes in global convection, magnetospheric substorms and nightside tail flows, as well as due to solar wind changes in both dynamic pressure and in response to rotations of the direction of the IMF. Significantly, any changes to the dynamical system must be communicated by the propagation of long-period Alfven and/or compressional waves. These wave populations hence provide diagnostics for not only the energy transport by the wave fields themselves, but also provide a mechanism for diagnosing the structure of the background plasma medium through which the waves propagate. Ultra-low frequency (ULF) waves are especially significant in offering a monitor for mass density profiles, often invisible to particle detectors because of their very low energy, through the application of a variety of magneto-seismology and cross-phase techniques. Renewed scientific interest in the plasma waves associated with near-Earth substorm dynamics, including magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at substorm onset and their relation to magnetotail flows, as well the importance of global scale ultra-low frequency waves for the energisation, transport, acceleration, and loss of electrons in the radiation belts promise high profile science returns. Integrated, global scale data products also have potential importance and application for real-time monitoring of the space weather threats to electrical power grids from geomagnetically induced currents. Such data exploitation increasingly relies on the collaborations between multiple national magnetometer arrays to generate single data products with common file format and data properties. We review advances in geospace science which can be delivered by networks of ground-based magnetometers - in terms of advances in sensors, data collection, and data integration - including through collaborations within the Ultra-Large Terrestrial International Magnetometer Array (ULTIMA) consortium.

Robust Adaptive Dynamic Programming of Two-Player Zero-Sum Games for Continuous-Time Linear Systems.

PubMed

Fu, Yue; Fu, Jun; Chai, Tianyou

2015-12-01

In this brief, an online robust adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for two-player zero-sum games of continuous-time unknown linear systems with matched uncertainties, which are functions of system outputs and states of a completely unknown exosystem. The online algorithm is developed using the policy iteration (PI) scheme with only one iteration loop. A new analytical method is proposed for convergence proof of the PI scheme. The sufficient conditions are given to guarantee globally asymptotic stability and suboptimal property of the closed-loop system. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The Earth’s Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability

PubMed Central

Krapivin, Vladimir F.; Varotsos, Costas A.; Soldatov, Vladimir Yu.

2017-01-01

This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts. PMID:28783136

Optimal design for robust control of uncertain flexible joint manipulators: a fuzzy dynamical system approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jiang; Chen, Ye-Hwa; Zhao, Xiaomin; Dong, Fangfang

2018-04-01

A novel fuzzy dynamical system approach to the control design of flexible joint manipulators with mismatched uncertainty is proposed. Uncertainties of the system are assumed to lie within prescribed fuzzy sets. The desired system performance includes a deterministic phase and a fuzzy phase. First, by creatively implanting a fictitious control, a robust control scheme is constructed to render the system uniformly bounded and uniformly ultimately bounded. Both the manipulator modelling and control scheme are deterministic and not IF-THEN heuristic rules-based. Next, a fuzzy-based performance index is proposed. An optimal design problem for a control design parameter is formulated as a constrained optimisation problem. The global solution to this problem can be obtained from solving two quartic equations. The fuzzy dynamical system approach is systematic and is able to assure the deterministic performance as well as to minimise the fuzzy performance index.

Time evolution of photon-pulse propagation in scattering and absorbing media: The dynamic radiative transfer system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakopoulos, A.; Politopoulos, K.; Georgiou, E.

2018-03-01

A new dynamic-system approach to the problem of radiative transfer inside scattering and absorbing media is presented, directly based on first-hand physical principles. This method, the Dynamic Radiative Transfer System (DRTS), employs a dynamical system formality using a global sparse matrix, which characterizes the physical, optical and geometrical properties of the material-volume of interest. The new system state is generated by the above time-independent matrix, using simple matrix-vector multiplication for each subsequent time step. DRTS is capable of calculating accurately the time evolution of photon propagation in media of complex structure and shape. The flexibility of DRTS allows the integration of time-dependent sources, boundary conditions, different media and several optical phenomena like reflection and refraction in a unified and consistent way. Various examples of DRTS simulation results are presented for ultra-fast light pulse 3-D propagation, demonstrating greatly reduced computational cost and resource requirements compared to other methods.

Design approach of an aquaculture cage system for deployment in the constructed channel flow environments of a power plant

PubMed Central

Lee, Jihoon; Fredriksson, David W.; DeCew, Judson; Drach, Andrew; Yim, Solomon C.

2018-01-01

This study provides an engineering approach for designing an aquaculture cage system for use in constructed channel flow environments. As sustainable aquaculture has grown globally, many novel techniques have been introduced such as those implemented in the global Atlantic salmon industry. The advent of several highly sophisticated analysis software systems enables the development of such novel engineering techniques. These software systems commonly include three-dimensional (3D) drafting, computational fluid dynamics, and finite element analysis. In this study, a combination of these analysis tools is applied to evaluate a conceptual aquaculture system for potential deployment in a power plant effluent channel. The channel is supposedly clean; however, it includes elevated water temperatures and strong currents. The first portion of the analysis includes the design of a fish cage system with specific net solidities using 3D drafting techniques. Computational fluid dynamics is then applied to evaluate the flow reduction through the system from the previously generated solid models. Implementing the same solid models, a finite element analysis is performed on the critical components to assess the material stresses produced by the drag force loads that are calculated from the fluid velocities. PMID:29897954

Persistent fluctuations in synchronization rate in globally coupled oscillators with periodic external forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atsumi, Yu; Nakao, Hiroya

2012-05-01

A system of phase oscillators with repulsive global coupling and periodic external forcing undergoing asynchronous rotation is considered. The synchronization rate of the system can exhibit persistent fluctuations depending on parameters and initial phase distributions, and the amplitude of the fluctuations scales with the system size for uniformly random initial phase distributions. Using the Watanabe-Strogatz transformation that reduces the original system to low-dimensional macroscopic equations, we show that the fluctuations are collective dynamics of the system corresponding to low-dimensional trajectories of the reduced equations. It is argued that the amplitude of the fluctuations is determined by the inhomogeneity of the initial phase distribution, resulting in system-size scaling for the random case.

Designing a dynamic data driven application system for estimating real-time load of dissolved organic carbon in a river

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang

2012-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of naturally occurring dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in a river is central to estimating surface water quality, aquatic carbon cycling, and global climate change. Currently, determination of the DOC in surface water is primarily accomplished by manually collecting samples for laboratory analysis, which requires at least 24 h. In other words...

Final Report from The University of Texas at Austin for DEGAS: Dynamic Global Address Space programming environments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erez, Mattan; Yelick, Katherine; Sarkar, Vivek

The Dynamic, Exascale Global Address Space programming environment (DEGAS) project will develop the next generation of programming models and runtime systems to meet the challenges of Exascale computing. Our approach is to provide an efficient and scalable programming model that can be adapted to application needs through the use of dynamic runtime features and domain-specific languages for computational kernels. We address the following technical challenges: Programmability: Rich set of programming constructs based on a Hierarchical Partitioned Global Address Space (HPGAS) model, demonstrated in UPC++. Scalability: Hierarchical locality control, lightweight communication (extended GASNet), and ef- ficient synchronization mechanisms (Phasers). Performance Portability:more » Just-in-time specialization (SEJITS) for generating hardware-specific code and scheduling libraries for domain-specific adaptive runtimes (Habanero). Energy Efficiency: Communication-optimal code generation to optimize energy efficiency by re- ducing data movement. Resilience: Containment Domains for flexible, domain-specific resilience, using state capture mechanisms and lightweight, asynchronous recovery mechanisms. Interoperability: Runtime and language interoperability with MPI and OpenMP to encourage broad adoption.« less

A method of recovering the initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Li-Sha; Kang, Xiao-Yun; Zhang, Qiong; Lin, Lan-Xin

2011-12-01

Based on symbolic dynamics, a novel computationally efficient algorithm is proposed to estimate the unknown initial vectors of globally coupled map lattices (CMLs). It is proved that not all inverse chaotic mapping functions are satisfied for contraction mapping. It is found that the values in phase space do not always converge on their initial values with respect to sufficient backward iteration of the symbolic vectors in terms of global convergence or divergence (CD). Both CD property and the coupling strength are directly related to the mapping function of the existing CML. Furthermore, the CD properties of Logistic, Bernoulli, and Tent chaotic mapping functions are investigated and compared. Various simulation results and the performances of the initial vector estimation with different signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) are also provided to confirm the proposed algorithm. Finally, based on the spatiotemporal chaotic characteristics of the CML, the conditions of estimating the initial vectors using symbolic dynamics are discussed. The presented method provides both theoretical and experimental results for better understanding and characterizing the behaviours of spatiotemporal chaotic systems.

A reconstruction of global hydroclimate and dynamical variables over the Common Era.

PubMed

Steiger, Nathan J; Smerdon, Jason E; Cook, Edward R; Cook, Benjamin I

2018-05-22

Hydroclimate extremes critically affect human and natural systems, but there remain many unanswered questions about their causes and how to interpret their dynamics in the past and in climate change projections. These uncertainties are due, in part, to the lack of long-term, spatially resolved hydroclimate reconstructions and information on the underlying physical drivers for many regions. Here we present the first global reconstructions of hydroclimate and associated climate dynamical variables over the past two thousand years. We use a data assimilation approach tailored to reconstruct hydroclimate that optimally combines 2,978 paleoclimate proxy-data time series with the physical constraints of an atmosphere-ocean climate model. The global reconstructions are annually or seasonally resolved and include two spatiotemporal drought indices, near-surface air temperature, an index of North Atlantic variability, the location of the intertropical convergence zone, and monthly Niño indices. This database, called the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA), will provide a critical new platform for investigating the causes of past climate variability and extremes, while informing interpretations of future hydroclimate projections.

Practical limits for reverse engineering of dynamical systems: a statistical analysis of sensitivity and parameter inferability in systems biology models.

PubMed

Erguler, Kamil; Stumpf, Michael P H

2011-05-01

The size and complexity of cellular systems make building predictive models an extremely difficult task. In principle dynamical time-course data can be used to elucidate the structure of the underlying molecular mechanisms, but a central and recurring problem is that many and very different models can be fitted to experimental data, especially when the latter are limited and subject to noise. Even given a model, estimating its parameters remains challenging in real-world systems. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of 180 systems biology models, which allows us to classify the parameters with respect to their contribution to the overall dynamical behaviour of the different systems. Our results reveal candidate elements of control in biochemical pathways that differentially contribute to dynamics. We introduce sensitivity profiles that concisely characterize parameter sensitivity and demonstrate how this can be connected to variability in data. Systematically linking data and model sloppiness allows us to extract features of dynamical systems that determine how well parameters can be estimated from time-course measurements, and associates the extent of data required for parameter inference with the model structure, and also with the global dynamical state of the system. The comprehensive analysis of so many systems biology models reaffirms the inability to estimate precisely most model or kinetic parameters as a generic feature of dynamical systems, and provides safe guidelines for performing better inferences and model predictions in the context of reverse engineering of mathematical models for biological systems.

Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

NASA Global Hawk Project Update and Future Plans: A New Tool for Earth Science Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naftel, Chris

2009-01-01

Science objectives include: First demonstration of the Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) for NASA and NOAA Earth science research and applications; Validation of instruments on-board the Aura satellite; Exploration of trace gases, aerosols, and dynamics of remote upper Troposphere/lower Stratosphere regions; Sample polar vortex fragments and atmospheric rivers; Risk reduction for future missions that will study hurricanes and atmospheric rivers.

Secure Scientific Applications Scheduling Technique for Cloud Computing Environment Using Global League Championship Algorithm

PubMed Central

Abdulhamid, Shafi’i Muhammad; Abd Latiff, Muhammad Shafie; Abdul-Salaam, Gaddafi; Hussain Madni, Syed Hamid

2016-01-01

Cloud computing system is a huge cluster of interconnected servers residing in a datacenter and dynamically provisioned to clients on-demand via a front-end interface. Scientific applications scheduling in the cloud computing environment is identified as NP-hard problem due to the dynamic nature of heterogeneous resources. Recently, a number of metaheuristics optimization schemes have been applied to address the challenges of applications scheduling in the cloud system, without much emphasis on the issue of secure global scheduling. In this paper, scientific applications scheduling techniques using the Global League Championship Algorithm (GBLCA) optimization technique is first presented for global task scheduling in the cloud environment. The experiment is carried out using CloudSim simulator. The experimental results show that, the proposed GBLCA technique produced remarkable performance improvement rate on the makespan that ranges between 14.44% to 46.41%. It also shows significant reduction in the time taken to securely schedule applications as parametrically measured in terms of the response time. In view of the experimental results, the proposed technique provides better-quality scheduling solution that is suitable for scientific applications task execution in the Cloud Computing environment than the MinMin, MaxMin, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) scheduling techniques. PMID:27384239

Secure Scientific Applications Scheduling Technique for Cloud Computing Environment Using Global League Championship Algorithm.

PubMed

Abdulhamid, Shafi'i Muhammad; Abd Latiff, Muhammad Shafie; Abdul-Salaam, Gaddafi; Hussain Madni, Syed Hamid

2016-01-01

Cloud computing system is a huge cluster of interconnected servers residing in a datacenter and dynamically provisioned to clients on-demand via a front-end interface. Scientific applications scheduling in the cloud computing environment is identified as NP-hard problem due to the dynamic nature of heterogeneous resources. Recently, a number of metaheuristics optimization schemes have been applied to address the challenges of applications scheduling in the cloud system, without much emphasis on the issue of secure global scheduling. In this paper, scientific applications scheduling techniques using the Global League Championship Algorithm (GBLCA) optimization technique is first presented for global task scheduling in the cloud environment. The experiment is carried out using CloudSim simulator. The experimental results show that, the proposed GBLCA technique produced remarkable performance improvement rate on the makespan that ranges between 14.44% to 46.41%. It also shows significant reduction in the time taken to securely schedule applications as parametrically measured in terms of the response time. In view of the experimental results, the proposed technique provides better-quality scheduling solution that is suitable for scientific applications task execution in the Cloud Computing environment than the MinMin, MaxMin, Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) scheduling techniques.

A model for oscillations and pattern formation in protoplasmic droplets of Physarum polycephalum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radszuweit, M.; Engel, H.; Bär, M.

2010-12-01

A mechano-chemical model for the spatiotemporal dynamics of free calcium and the thickness in protoplasmic droplets of the true slime mold Physarum polycephalum is derived starting from a physiologically detailed description of intracellular calcium oscillations proposed by Smith and Saldana (Biopys. J. 61, 368 (1992)). First, we have modified the Smith-Saldana model for the temporal calcium dynamics in order to reproduce the experimentally observed phase relation between calcium and mechanical tension oscillations. Then, we formulate a model for spatiotemporal dynamics by adding spatial coupling in the form of calcium diffusion and advection due to calcium-dependent mechanical contraction. In another step, the resulting reaction-diffusion model with mechanical coupling is simplified to a reaction-diffusion model with global coupling that approximates the mechanical part. We perform a bifurcation analysis of the local dynamics and observe a Hopf bifurcation upon increase of a biochemical activity parameter. The corresponding reaction-diffusion model with global coupling shows regular and chaotic spatiotemporal behaviour for parameters with oscillatory dynamics. In addition, we show that the global coupling leads to a long-wavelength instability even for parameters where the local dynamics possesses a stable spatially homogeneous steady state. This instability causes standing waves with a wavelength of twice the system size in one dimension. Simulations of the model in two dimensions are found to exhibit defect-mediated turbulence as well as various types of spiral wave patterns in qualitative agreement with earlier experimental observation by Takagi and Ueda (Physica D, 237, 420 (2008)).

LETTER TO THE EDITOR: Fractal diffusion coefficient from dynamical zeta functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristadoro, Giampaolo

2006-03-01

Dynamical zeta functions provide a powerful method to analyse low-dimensional dynamical systems when the underlying symbolic dynamics is under control. On the other hand, even simple one-dimensional maps can show an intricate structure of the grammar rules that may lead to a non-smooth dependence of global observables on parameters changes. A paradigmatic example is the fractal diffusion coefficient arising in a simple piecewise linear one-dimensional map of the real line. Using the Baladi-Ruelle generalization of the Milnor-Thurnston kneading determinant, we provide the exact dynamical zeta function for such a map and compute the diffusion coefficient from its smallest zero.

Global stability and tumor clearance conditions for a cancer chemotherapy system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valle, Paul A.; Starkov, Konstantin E.; Coria, Luis N.

2016-11-01

In this paper we study the global dynamics of a cancer chemotherapy system presented by de Pillis et al. (2007). This mathematical model describes the interaction between tumor cells, effector-immune cells, circulating lymphocytes and chemotherapy treatment. By applying the localization method of compact invariant sets, we find lower and upper bounds for these three cells populations. Further, we define a bounded domain in R+,04 where all compact invariant sets of the system are located and provide conditions under which this domain is positively invariant. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle and one result concerning two-dimensional competitive systems in order to derive sufficient conditions for tumor clearance and global asymptotic stability of the tumor-free equilibrium point. These conditions are computed by using bounds of the localization domain and they are given in terms of the chemotherapy treatment. Finally, we perform numerical simulations in order to illustrate our results.

Development of a global backscatter model for NASA's laser atmospheric wind sounder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bowdle, David; Collins, Laurie; Mach, Douglas; Mcnider, Richard; Song, Aaron

1992-01-01

During the Contract Period April 1, 1989, to September 30, 1992, the Earth Systems Science Laboratory (ESSL) in the Research Institute at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) conducted a program of basic research on atmospheric backscatter characteristics, leading to the development of a global backscatter model. The ESSL research effort was carried out in conjunction with the Earth System Observing Branch (ES43) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Marshall Space Flight Center, as part of NASA Contract NAS8-37585 under the Atmospheric Dynamics Program at NASA Headquarters. This research provided important inputs to NASA's GLObal Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) program, especially in the understanding of global aerosol life cycles, and to NASA's Doppler Lidar research program, especially the development program for their prospective space-based Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS).

Avian Influenza spread and transmission dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bourouiba, Lydia; Gourley, Stephen A.; Liu, Rongsong; Takekawa, John Y.; Wu, Jianhong; Chen, Dongmei; Moulin, Bernard; Wu, Jianhong

2015-01-01

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of type A of subtype H5N1 has been a serious threat to global public health. Understanding the roles of various (migratory, wild, poultry) bird species in the transmission of these viruses is critical for designing and implementing effective control and intervention measures. Developing appropriate models and mathematical techniques to understand these roles and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation strategies have been a challenge. Recent development of the global health surveillance (especially satellite tracking and GIS techniques) and the mathematical theory of dynamical systems combined have gradually shown the promise of some cutting-edge methodologies and techniques in mathematical biology to meet this challenge.

Biology of Consciousness

PubMed Central

Edelman, Gerald M.; Gally, Joseph A.; Baars, Bernard J.

2010-01-01

The Dynamic Core and Global Workspace hypotheses were independently put forward to provide mechanistic and biologically plausible accounts of how brains generate conscious mental content. The Dynamic Core proposes that reentrant neural activity in the thalamocortical system gives rise to conscious experience. Global Workspace reconciles the limited capacity of momentary conscious content with the vast repertoire of long-term memory. In this paper we show the close relationship between the two hypotheses. This relationship allows for a strictly biological account of phenomenal experience and subjectivity that is consistent with mounting experimental evidence. We examine the constraints on causal analyses of consciousness and suggest that there is now sufficient evidence to consider the design and construction of a conscious artifact. PMID:21713129

Ring Current Ion Coupling with Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov. G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A new ring current global model has been developed that couples the system of two kinetic equations: one equation describes the ring current (RC) ion dynamic, and another equation describes wave evolution of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves (EMIC). The coupled model is able to simulate, for the first time self-consistently calculated RC ion kinetic and evolution of EMIC waves that propagate along geomagnetic field lines and reflect from the ionosphere. Ionospheric properties affect the reflection index through the integral Pedersen and Hall conductivities. The structure and dynamics of the ring current proton precipitating flux regions, intensities of EMIC global RC energy balance, and some other parameters will be studied in detail for the selected geomagnetic storms.

Impact of the Topology of Global Macroeconomic Network on the Spreading of Economic Crises

PubMed Central

Lee, Kyu-Min; Yang, Jae-Suk; Kim, Gunn; Lee, Jaesung; Goh, Kwang-Il; Kim, In-mook

2011-01-01

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more “globalized” random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises. PMID:21483794

Autonomous satellite navigation with the Global Positioning System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuchs, A. J.; Wooden, W. H., II; Long, A. C.

1977-01-01

This paper discusses the potential of using the Global Positioning System (GPS) to provide autonomous navigation capability to NASA satellites in the 1980 era. Some of the driving forces motivating autonomous navigation are presented. These include such factors as advances in attitude control systems, onboard science annotation, and onboard gridding of imaging data. Simulation results which demonstrate baseline orbit determination accuracies using GPS data on Seasat, Landsat-D, and the Solar Maximum Mission are presented. Emphasis is placed on identifying error sources such as GPS time, GPS ephemeris, user timing biases, and user orbit dynamics, and in a parametric sense on evaluating their contribution to the orbit determination accuracies.

Chimera states in a network-organized public goods game with destructive agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouvaris, Nikos E.; Requejo, Rubén J.; Hizanidis, Johanne; Díaz-Guilera, Albert

2016-12-01

We found that a network-organized metapopulation of cooperators, defectors, and destructive agents playing the public goods game with mutations can collectively reach global synchronization or chimera states. Global synchronization is accompanied by a collective periodic burst of cooperation, whereas chimera states reflect the tendency of the networked metapopulation to be fragmented in clusters of synchronous and incoherent bursts of cooperation. Numerical simulations have shown that the system's dynamics switches between these two steady states through a first order transition. Depending on the parameters determining the dynamical and topological properties, chimera states with different numbers of coherent and incoherent clusters are observed. Our results present the first systematic study of chimera states and their characterization in the context of evolutionary game theory. This provides a valuable insight into the details of their occurrence, extending the relevance of such states to natural and social systems.

Lithospheric dynamics near plate boundaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Solomon, Sean C.

1992-01-01

The progress report on research conducted between 15 Mar. - 14 Sep. 1992 is presented. The focus of the research during the first grant year has been on several problems broadly related to the nature and dynamics of time-dependent deformation and stress along major seismic zones, with an emphasis on western North America but with additional work on seismic zones in oceanic lithosphere as well. The principal findings of our research to date are described in the accompanying papers and abstract. Topics covered include: (1) Global Positioning System measurements of deformations associated with the 1987 Superstition Hills earthquake: evidence for conjugate faulting; (2) Global Positioning System measurements of strain accumulation across the Imperial Valley, California: 1986-1989; (3) present-day crustal deformation in the Salton Trough, southern California; (4) oceanic transform earthquakes with unusual mechanisms or locations: relation to fault geometry and state of stress in the lithosphere; and (5) crustal strain and the 1992 Mojave Desert earthquakes.

The first geocenter estimation results using GPS measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malla, R. P.; Wu, S. C.

1990-01-01

The center of mass of the Earth is the natural and unambiguous origin of a geocentric satellite dynamical system. A geocentric reference frame assumes that the origin of its coordinate axes is at the geocenter, in which all relevant observations and results can be referred and in which geodynamic theories or models for the dynamic behavior of Earth can be formulated. In practice, however, a kinematically obtained terrestrial reference frame may assume an origin other than the geocenter. A fast and accurate method of determining origin offset from the geocenter is highly desirable. Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements, because of their abundance and broad distribution, provide a powerful tool to obtain this origin offset in a short period of time. Two effective strategies have been devised. Data from the first Central and South America (Casa Uno) global GPS experiment were studied to demonstrate the ability of recovering the geocenter location with present-day GPS satellites and receivers.

A new global analytical potential energy surface of NaH2+ system and dynamical calculation for H(2S) + NaH+(X2Σ+) → Na+(1S) + H2(X1Σg+) reaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Meiling; Li, Wentao; Yuan, Jiuchuang

2018-05-01

A new global potential energy surface (PES) of the NaH2+ system is constructed by fitting 27,621 ab initio energy points with the neural network method. The root mean square error of the new PES is only 4.1609 × 10-4 eV. Based on the new PES, dynamical calculations have been performed using the time-dependent quantum wave packet method. These results are then compared with the H(2S) + LiH+(X2Σ+) → Li+(1S) + H2(X1Σg+) reaction. The direct abstract mechanism is found to play an important role in the reaction because only forward scattering signals on the differential cross section results for all calculated collision energies.

Cascade defense via routing in complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiao-Lan; Du, Wen-Bo; Hong, Chen

2015-05-01

As the cascading failures in networked traffic systems are becoming more and more serious, research on cascade defense in complex networks has become a hotspot in recent years. In this paper, we propose a traffic-based cascading failure model, in which each packet in the network has its own source and destination. When cascade is triggered, packets will be redistributed according to a given routing strategy. Here, a global hybrid (GH) routing strategy, which uses the dynamic information of the queue length and the static information of nodes' degree, is proposed to defense the network cascade. Comparing GH strategy with the shortest path (SP) routing, efficient routing (ER) and global dynamic (GD) routing strategies, we found that GH strategy is more effective than other routing strategies in improving the network robustness against cascading failures. Our work provides insight into the robustness of networked traffic systems.

Limitations on Inferring 3D Architecture and Dynamics From Surface Velocities in the India-Eurasia Collision Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flesch, L.; Bendick, R.; Bischoff, S.

2018-02-01

Surface velocities derived from Global Positioning System observations and Quaternary fault slip rates measured throughout an extended region of high topography in South Asia vary smoothly over thousands of kilometers and are broadly symmetrical, with components of both north-south shortening and east-west extension relative to stable Eurasia. The observed velocity field does not contain discontinuities or steep gradients attributable to along-strike differences in collision architecture, despite the well-documented presence of a lithospheric slab beneath the Pamir but not the Tibetan Plateau. We use a modified Akaike information criterion (AICc) to show that surface velocities do not efficiently constrain 3D rheology, geometry, or force balance. Therefore, although other geophysical and geological observations may indicate the presence of mechanical or dynamic heterogeneities within the Indian-Asian collision, the surface Global Positioning System velocities contain little or no usable information about them.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franović, Igor, E-mail: franovic@ipb.ac.rs; Todorović, Kristina; Burić, Nikola

We use the mean-field approach to analyze the collective dynamics in macroscopic networks of stochastic Fitzhugh-Nagumo units with delayed couplings. The conditions for validity of the two main approximations behind the model, called the Gaussian approximation and the Quasi-independence approximation, are examined. It is shown that the dynamics of the mean-field model may indicate in a self-consistent fashion the parameter domains where the Quasi-independence approximation fails. Apart from a network of globally coupled units, we also consider the paradigmatic setup of two interacting assemblies to demonstrate how our framework may be extended to hierarchical and modular networks. In both cases,more » the mean-field model can be used to qualitatively analyze the stability of the system, as well as the scenarios for the onset and the suppression of the collective mode. In quantitative terms, the mean-field model is capable of predicting the average oscillation frequency corresponding to the global variables of the exact system.« less

Applications of the EOS SAR to monitoring global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schier, Marguerite; Way, Jobea; Holt, Benjamin

1991-01-01

The SAR employed by NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is a multifrequency multipolarization radar which can conduct global monitoring of geophysical and biophysical parameters. The present discussion of the EOS SAR's role in global monitoring emphasizes geophysical product variables applicable to global hydrologic, biogeochemical, and energy cycle models. EOS SAR products encompass biomass, wetland areas, and phenologic and environmental states, in the field of ecosystem dynamics; soil moisture, snow moisture and extent, and glacier and ice sheet extent and velocity, in hydrologic cycle studies; surface-wave fields and sea ice properties, in ocean/atmosphere circulation; and the topography, erosion, and land forms of the solid earth.

New results on global exponential dissipativity analysis of memristive inertial neural networks with distributed time-varying delays.

PubMed

Zhang, Guodong; Zeng, Zhigang; Hu, Junhao

2018-01-01

This paper is concerned with the global exponential dissipativity of memristive inertial neural networks with discrete and distributed time-varying delays. By constructing appropriate Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals, some new sufficient conditions ensuring global exponential dissipativity of memristive inertial neural networks are derived. Moreover, the globally exponential attractive sets and positive invariant sets are also presented here. In addition, the new proposed results here complement and extend the earlier publications on conventional or memristive neural network dynamical systems. Finally, numerical simulations are given to illustrate the effectiveness of obtained results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical and experimental study of vibrations in a gear transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choy, F. K.; Ruan, Y. F.; Zakrajsek, J. J.; Oswald, Fred B.; Coy, J. J.

1991-01-01

An analytical simulation of the dynamics of a gear transmission system is presented and compared to experimental results from a gear noise test rig at the NASA Lewis Research Center. The analytical procedure developed couples the dynamic behaviors of the rotor-bearing-gear system with the response of the gearbox structure. The modal synthesis method is used in solving the overall dynamics of the system. Locally each rotor-gear stage is modeled as an individual rotor-bearing system using the matrix transfer technique. The dynamics of each individual rotor are coupled with other rotor stages through the nonlinear gear mesh forces and with the gearbox structure through bearing support systems. The modal characteristics of the gearbox structure are evaluated using the finite element procedure. A variable time steping integration routine is used to calculate the overall time transient behavior of the system in modal coordinates. The global dynamic behavior of the system is expressed in a generalized coordinate system. Transient and steady state vibrations of the gearbox system are presented in the time and frequency domains. The vibration characteristics of a simple single mesh gear noise test rig is modeled. The numerical simulations are compared to experimental data measured under typical operating conditions. The comparison of system natural frequencies, peak vibration amplitudes, and gear mesh frequencies are generally in good agreement.

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

GFDL's ESM2 global coupled climate-carbon Earth System Models. Part I: physical formulation and baseline simulation characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunne, John P.; John, Jasmin G.; Adcroft, Alistair J.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hallberg, Robert W.; Shevalikova, Elena; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Cooke, William; Dunne, Krista A.; Harrison, Matthew J.; Krasting, John P.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Milly, P.C.D.; Phillipps, Peter J.; Sentman, Lori A.; Samuels, Bonita L.; Spelman, Michael J.; Winton, Michael; Wittenberg, Andrew T.; Zadeh, Niki

2012-01-01

We describe the physical climate formulation and simulation characteristics of two new global coupled carbon-climate Earth System Models, ESM2M and ESM2G. These models demonstrate similar climate fidelity as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's previous CM2.1 climate model while incorporating explicit and consistent carbon dynamics. The two models differ exclusively in the physical ocean component; ESM2M uses Modular Ocean Model version 4.1 with vertical pressure layers while ESM2G uses Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics with a bulk mixed layer and interior isopycnal layers. Differences in the ocean mean state include the thermocline depth being relatively deep in ESM2M and relatively shallow in ESM2G compared to observations. The crucial role of ocean dynamics on climate variability is highlighted in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation being overly strong in ESM2M and overly weak ESM2G relative to observations. Thus, while ESM2G might better represent climate changes relating to: total heat content variability given its lack of long term drift, gyre circulation and ventilation in the North Pacific, tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans, and depth structure in the overturning and abyssal flows, ESM2M might better represent climate changes relating to: surface circulation given its superior surface temperature, salinity and height patterns, tropical Pacific circulation and variability, and Southern Ocean dynamics. Our overall assessment is that neither model is fundamentally superior to the other, and that both models achieve sufficient fidelity to allow meaningful climate and earth system modeling applications. This affords us the ability to assess the role of ocean configuration on earth system interactions in the context of two state-of-the-art coupled carbon-climate models.

Evolution of worldwide stock markets, correlation structure, and correlation-based graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Dong-Ming; Tumminello, Michele; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Mantegna, Rosario N.

2011-08-01

We investigate the daily correlation present among market indices of stock exchanges located all over the world in the time period January 1996 to July 2009. We discover that the correlation among market indices presents both a fast and a slow dynamics. The slow dynamics reflects the development and consolidation of globalization. The fast dynamics is associated with critical events that originate in a specific country or region of the world and rapidly affect the global system. We provide evidence that the short term time scale of correlation among market indices is less than 3 trading months (about 60 trading days). The average values of the nondiagonal elements of the correlation matrix, correlation-based graphs, and the spectral properties of the largest eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the correlation matrix are carrying information about the fast and slow dynamics of the correlation of market indices. We introduce a measure of mutual information based on link co-occurrence in networks in order to detect the fast dynamics of successive changes of correlation-based graphs in a quantitative way.

The Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016): Results of the Supercell Test Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarzycki, C. M.; Reed, K. A.; Jablonowski, C.; Ullrich, P. A.; Kent, J.; Lauritzen, P. H.; Nair, R. D.

2016-12-01

The 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP-2016) assesses the modeling techniques for global climate and weather models and was recently held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in conjunction with a two-week summer school. Over 12 different international modeling groups participated in DCMIP-2016 and focused on the evaluation of the newest non-hydrostatic dynamical core designs for future high-resolution weather and climate models. The paper highlights the results of the third DCMIP-2016 test case, which is an idealized supercell storm on a reduced-radius Earth. The supercell storm test permits the study of a non-hydrostatic moist flow field with strong vertical velocities and associated precipitation. This test assesses the behavior of global modeling systems at extremely high spatial resolution and is used in the development of next-generation numerical weather prediction capabilities. In this regime the effective grid spacing is very similar to the horizontal scale of convective plumes, emphasizing resolved non-hydrostatic dynamics. The supercell test case sheds light on the physics-dynamics interplay and highlights the impact of diffusion on model solutions.

Toward GEOS-6, A Global Cloud System Resolving Atmospheric Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

NASA is committed to observing and understanding the weather and climate of our home planet through the use of multi-scale modeling systems and space-based observations. Global climate models have evolved to take advantage of the influx of multi- and many-core computing technologies and the availability of large clusters of multi-core microprocessors. GEOS-6 is a next-generation cloud system resolving atmospheric model that will place NASA at the forefront of scientific exploration of our atmosphere and climate. Model simulations with GEOS-6 will produce a realistic representation of our atmosphere on the scale of typical satellite observations, bringing a visual comprehension of model results to a new level among the climate enthusiasts. In preparation for GEOS-6, the agency's flagship Earth System Modeling Framework [JDl] has been enhanced to support cutting-edge high-resolution global climate and weather simulations. Improvements include a cubed-sphere grid that exposes parallelism; a non-hydrostatic finite volume dynamical core, and algorithm designed for co-processor technologies, among others. GEOS-6 represents a fundamental advancement in the capability of global Earth system models. The ability to directly compare global simulations at the resolution of spaceborne satellite images will lead to algorithm improvements and better utilization of space-based observations within the GOES data assimilation system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz, Pablo R.; Rempel, Erico L.; Barroso, Joaquim J.

We study the chaotic dynamics of the Pierce diode, a simple spatially extended system for collisionless bounded plasmas, focusing on the concept of edge of chaos, the boundary that separates transient from asymptotic dynamics. We fully characterize an interior crisis at the end of a periodic window, thereby showing direct evidence of the collision between a chaotic attractor, a chaotic saddle, and the edge of chaos, formed by a period-3 unstable periodic orbit and its stable manifold. The edge of chaos persists after the interior crisis, when the global attractor of the system increases its size in the phase space.

Dispersive models describing mosquitoes’ population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamashita, W. M. S.; Takahashi, L. T.; Chapiro, G.

2016-08-01

The global incidences of dengue and, more recently, zica virus have increased the interest in studying and understanding the mosquito population dynamics. Understanding this dynamics is important for public health in countries where climatic and environmental conditions are favorable for the propagation of these diseases. This work is based on the study of nonlinear mathematical models dealing with the life cycle of the dengue mosquito using partial differential equations. We investigate the existence of traveling wave solutions using semi-analytical method combining dynamical systems techniques and numerical integration. Obtained solutions are validated through numerical simulations using finite difference schemes.

Dynamic triggering

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, David P.; Prejean, Stephanie; Schubert, Gerald

2015-01-01

Dynamic stresses propagating as seismic waves from large earthquakes trigger a spectrum of responses at global distances. In addition to locally triggered earthquakes in a variety of tectonic environments, dynamic stresses trigger tectonic (nonvolcanic) tremor in the brittle–plastic transition zone along major plate-boundary faults, activity changes in hydrothermal and volcanic systems, and, in hydrologic domains, changes in spring discharge, water well levels, soil liquefaction, and the eruption of mud volcanoes. Surface waves with periods of 15–200 s are the most effective triggering agents; body-wave trigger is less frequent. Triggering dynamic stresses can be < 1 kPa.

Clustering Effect on the Dynamics in a Spatial Rock-Paper-Scissors System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashimoto, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kazunori; Ichinose, Genki; Miyazaki, Rinko; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2018-01-01

The lattice dynamics for rock-paper-scissors games is related to population theories in ecology. In most cases, simulations are performed by local and global interactions. It is known in the former case that the dynamics is usually stable. We find two types of non-random distributions in the stationary state. One is a cluster formation of endangered species: when the density of a species approaches zero, its clumping degree diverges to infinity. The other is the strong aggregations of high-density species. Such spatial pattern formations play important roles in population dynamics.

A global assessment of market accessibility and market influence for global environmental change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verburg, Peter H.; Ellis, Erle C.; Letourneau, Aurelien

2011-07-01

Markets influence the global patterns of urbanization, deforestation, agriculture and other land use systems. Yet market influence is rarely incorporated into spatially explicit global studies of environmental change, largely because consistent global data are lacking below the national level. Here we present the first high spatial resolution gridded data depicting market influence globally. The data jointly represent variations in both market strength and accessibility based on three market influence indices derived from an index of accessibility to market locations and national level gross domestic product (purchasing power parity). These indices show strong correspondence with human population density while also revealing several distinct and useful relationships with other global environmental patterns. As market influence grows, the need for high resolution global data on market influence and its dynamics will become increasingly important to understanding and forecasting global environmental change.

BIOME: A scientific data archive search-and-order system using browser-aware, dynamic pages.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jennings, S.V.; Yow, T.G.; Ng, V.W.

1997-08-01

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory`s (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) is a data archive and distribution center for the National Air and Space Administration`s (NASA) Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Both the Earth Observing System (EOS) and EOSDIS are components of NASA`s contribution to the US Global Change Research Program through its Mission to Planet Earth Program. The ORNL DAAC provides access to data used in ecological and environmental research such as global change, global warming, and terrestrial ecology. Because of its large and diverse data holdings, the challenge for the ORNL DAAC is to helpmore » users find data of interest from the hundreds of thousands of files available at the DAAC without overwhelming them. Therefore, the ORNL DAAC has developed the Biogeochemical Information Ordering Management Environment (BIOME), a customized search and order system for the World Wide Web (WWW). BIOME is a public system located at http://www-eosdis.ornl.gov/BIOME/biome.html.« less

BIOME: A scientific data archive search-and-order system using browser-aware, dynamic pages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jennings, S. V.; Yow, T. G.; Ng, V. W.

1997-01-01

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) is a data archive and distribution center for the National Air and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Both the Earth Observing System (EOS) and EOSDIS are components of NASA's contribution to the US Global Change Research Program through its Mission to Planet Earth Program. The ORNL DAAC provides access to data used in ecological and environmental research such as global change, global warming, and terrestrial ecology. Because of its large and diverse data holdings, the challenge for the ORNL DAAC is to help users find data of interest from the hundreds of thousands of files available at the DAAC without overwhelming them. Therefore, the ORNL DAAC has developed the Biogeochemical Information Ordering Management Environment (BIOME), a customized search and order system for the World Wide Web (WWW). BIOME is a public system located at http://www-eosdis. ornl.gov/BIOME/biome.html.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): A Systems Approach to a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruffa, John A.; Ward, David K.; Bartusek, LIsa M.; Bay, Michael; Gonzales, Peter J.; Pesnell, William D.

2012-01-01

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) includes three advanced instruments, massive science data volume, stringent science data completeness requirements, and a custom ground station to meet mission demands. The strict instrument science requirements imposed a number of challenging drivers on the overall mission system design, leading the SDO team to adopt an integrated systems engineering presence across all aspects of the mission to ensure that mission science requirements would be met. Key strategies were devised to address these system level drivers and mitigate identified threats to mission success. The global systems engineering team approach ensured that key drivers and risk areas were rigorously addressed through all phases of the mission, leading to the successful SDO launch and on-orbit operation. Since launch, SDO's on-orbit performance has met all mission science requirements and enabled groundbreaking science observations, expanding our understanding of the Sun and its dynamic processes.

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): A Systems Approach to a Complex Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruffa, John A.; Ward, David K.; Bartusek, Lisa M.; Bay, Michael; Gonzales, Peter J.; Pesnell, William D.

2012-01-01

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) includes three advanced instruments, massive science data volume, stringent science data completeness requirements, and a custom ground station to meet mission demands. The strict instrument science requirements imposed a number of challenging drivers on the overall mission system design, leading the SDO team to adopt an integrated systems engineering presence across all aspects of the mission to ensure that mission science requirements would be met. Key strategies were devised to address these system level drivers and mitigate identified threats to mission success. The global systems engineering team approach ensured that key drivers and risk areas were rigorously addressed through all phases of the mission, leading to the successful SDO launch and on-orbit operation. Since launch, SDO s on-orbit performance has met all mission science requirements and enabled groundbreaking science observations, expanding our understanding of the Sun and its dynamic processes.

A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randers, Jorgen; Golüke, Ulrich; Wenstøp, Fred; Wenstøp, Søren

2016-11-01

We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year - around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature - GMST - by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO.

1/32° real-time global ocean prediction and value-added over 1/16° resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shriver, J. F.; Hurlburt, H. E.; Smedstad, O. M.; Wallcraft, A. J.; Rhodes, R. C.

2007-03-01

A 1/32° global ocean nowcast/forecast system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory at the Stennis Space Center. It started running at the Naval Oceanographic Office in near real-time on 1 Nov. 2003 and has been running daily in real-time since 1 Mar. 2005. It became an operational system on 6 March 2006, replacing the existing 1/16° system which ceased operation on 12 March 2006. Both systems use the NRL Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with assimilation of sea surface height from satellite altimeters and sea surface temperature from multi-channel satellite infrared radiometers. Real-time and archived results are available online at http://www.ocean.nrlssc.navy.mil/global_nlom. The 1/32° system has improvements over the earlier system that can be grouped into two categories: (1) better resolution and representation of dynamical processes and (2) design modifications. The design modifications are the result of accrued knowledge since the development of the earlier 1/16° system. The improved horizontal resolution of the 1/32° system has significant dynamical benefits which increase the ability of the model to accurately nowcast and skillfully forecast. At the finer resolution, current pathways and their transports become more accurate, the sea surface height (SSH) variability increases and becomes more realistic and even the global ocean circulation experiences some changes (including inter-basin exchange). These improvements make the 1/32° system a better dynamical interpolator of assimilated satellite altimeter track data, using a one-day model forecast as the first guess. The result is quantitatively more accurate nowcasts, as is illustrated by several model-data comparisons. Based on comparisons with ocean color imagery in the northwestern Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, the 1/32° system has even demonstrated the ability to map small eddies, 25-75 km in diameter, with 70% reliability and a median eddy center location error of 22.5 km, a surprising and unanticipated result from assimilation of altimeter track data. For all of the eddies (50% small eddies), the reliability was 80% and the median eddy center location error was 29 km. The 1/32° system also exhibits improved forecast skill in relation to the 1/16° system. This is due to ( a) a more accurate initial condition for the forecast and ( b) better resolution and representation of critical dynamical processes (such as upper ocean - topographic coupling via mesoscale flow instabilities) which allow the model to more accurately evolve these features in time while running in forecast mode (forecast atmospheric forcing for the first 5 days, then gradually reverting toward climatology for the remainder of the 30-day forecast period). At 1/32° resolution, forecast SSH generally compares better with unassimilated observations and the anomaly correlation of the forecast SSH exceeds that from persistence by a larger amount than found in the 1/16° system.

Complexity of Tropical Pacific Ecosystem and Biogeochemistry: Diurnal to Decadal, Plankters to Penguins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murtugudde, R. G.; Wang, X.; Valsala, V.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2016-12-01

Tropical Pacific spans nearly 50% of the global tropics allowing to have its own mind in terms of climate variability and physical-biogeochemical interactions. While the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its flavors get much attention, it is fairly clear by now that any further improvements in ENSO prediction skills and reliability of global warming projections must begin to observe and represent bio-physical interactions in the climate and Earth System models. Coupled climate variability over the tropical Pacific has a global reach with its diurnal to decadal timescales being manifest in ecosystem and biogechemistry. Zonal and meridional contrasts in biogeochemistry across the tropical Pacific is closely related to seasonal variability, ENSO diversity and the PDO. Apparent dominance of ocean dynamic controls on biogeochemistry belies the potential biogeochemical feedbacks on ocean dynamics which may well explain some of the chronic biases in the state-of-the-art climate models. The east Pacific cold-tongue is the most productive open ocean region in the world and home to a unique physical-biogeochmical laboratory, viz., the Galapagos. The Galapagos islands not only control the coupled climate variability via their ability to terminate the equatorial undercurrent but also offer a clear example of a biological loophole in terms of their impact on local upwelling and an expanding penguin habitat in the face of global warming. The complex bio-physical interactions in the cold-tongue and their influence on climate predictions and projections require a holisti thinking on future observing systems. Tropical Pacific offers a natural laboratory for designing a robust and sustained physical-biogeochemical observation system that can effectively bridge climate predictions and projections into a unified framework for subseasonal to multidecadal timescales. Such a system will be a foundation for establishing similar systems over the rest of the World ocean to seemlessly merge climate predictions and projections with the need to constantly monitor climate impacts on marine resources. This talk will focus on the zonal contrasts of the ocean dynamics and biogechemistry across the tropical Pacific to make a case for integrated physical-biogeochemical observations for climate predictions and projections.

Multi-agent based control of large-scale complex systems employing distributed dynamic inference engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Daili

Increasing societal demand for automation has led to considerable efforts to control large-scale complex systems, especially in the area of autonomous intelligent control methods. The control system of a large-scale complex system needs to satisfy four system level requirements: robustness, flexibility, reusability, and scalability. Corresponding to the four system level requirements, there arise four major challenges. First, it is difficult to get accurate and complete information. Second, the system may be physically highly distributed. Third, the system evolves very quickly. Fourth, emergent global behaviors of the system can be caused by small disturbances at the component level. The Multi-Agent Based Control (MABC) method as an implementation of distributed intelligent control has been the focus of research since the 1970s, in an effort to solve the above-mentioned problems in controlling large-scale complex systems. However, to the author's best knowledge, all MABC systems for large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties are problem-specific and thus difficult to extend to other domains or larger systems. This situation is partly due to the control architecture of multiple agents being determined by agent to agent coupling and interaction mechanisms. Therefore, the research objective of this dissertation is to develop a comprehensive, generalized framework for the control system design of general large-scale complex systems with significant uncertainties, with the focus on distributed control architecture design and distributed inference engine design. A Hybrid Multi-Agent Based Control (HyMABC) architecture is proposed by combining hierarchical control architecture and module control architecture with logical replication rings. First, it decomposes a complex system hierarchically; second, it combines the components in the same level as a module, and then designs common interfaces for all of the components in the same module; third, replications are made for critical agents and are organized into logical rings. This architecture maintains clear guidelines for complexity decomposition and also increases the robustness of the whole system. Multiple Sectioned Dynamic Bayesian Networks (MSDBNs) as a distributed dynamic probabilistic inference engine, can be embedded into the control architecture to handle uncertainties of general large-scale complex systems. MSDBNs decomposes a large knowledge-based system into many agents. Each agent holds its partial perspective of a large problem domain by representing its knowledge as a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). Each agent accesses local evidence from its corresponding local sensors and communicates with other agents through finite message passing. If the distributed agents can be organized into a tree structure, satisfying the running intersection property and d-sep set requirements, globally consistent inferences are achievable in a distributed way. By using different frequencies for local DBN agent belief updating and global system belief updating, it balances the communication cost with the global consistency of inferences. In this dissertation, a fully factorized Boyen-Koller (BK) approximation algorithm is used for local DBN agent belief updating, and the static Junction Forest Linkage Tree (JFLT) algorithm is used for global system belief updating. MSDBNs assume a static structure and a stable communication network for the whole system. However, for a real system, sub-Bayesian networks as nodes could be lost, and the communication network could be shut down due to partial damage in the system. Therefore, on-line and automatic MSDBNs structure formation is necessary for making robust state estimations and increasing survivability of the whole system. A Distributed Spanning Tree Optimization (DSTO) algorithm, a Distributed D-Sep Set Satisfaction (DDSSS) algorithm, and a Distributed Running Intersection Satisfaction (DRIS) algorithm are proposed in this dissertation. Combining these three distributed algorithms and a Distributed Belief Propagation (DBP) algorithm in MSDBNs makes state estimations robust to partial damage in the whole system. Combining the distributed control architecture design and the distributed inference engine design leads to a process of control system design for a general large-scale complex system. As applications of the proposed methodology, the control system design of a simplified ship chilled water system and a notional ship chilled water system have been demonstrated step by step. Simulation results not only show that the proposed methodology gives a clear guideline for control system design for general large-scale complex systems with dynamic and uncertain environment, but also indicate that the combination of MSDBNs and HyMABC can provide excellent performance for controlling general large-scale complex systems.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks.

PubMed

Navarro Jimenez, M; Le Maître, O P; Knio, O M

2016-12-28

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Effects of deterministic and random refuge in a prey-predator model with parasite infection.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, B; Bhattacharyya, R

2012-09-01

Most natural ecosystem populations suffer from various infectious diseases and the resulting host-pathogen dynamics is dependent on host's characteristics. On the other hand, empirical evidences show that for most host pathogen systems, a part of the host population always forms a refuge. To study the role of refuge on the host-pathogen interaction, we study a predator-prey-pathogen model where the susceptible and the infected prey can undergo refugia of constant size to evade predator attack. The stability aspects of the model system is investigated from a local and global perspective. The study reveals that the refuge sizes for the susceptible and the infected prey are the key parameters that control possible predator extinction as well as species co-existence. Next we perform a global study of the model system using Lyapunov functions and show the existence of a global attractor. Finally we perform a stochastic extension of the basic model to study the phenomenon of random refuge arising from various intrinsic, habitat-related and environmental factors. The stochastic model is analyzed for exponential mean square stability. Numerical study of the stochastic model shows that increasing the refuge rates has a stabilizing effect on the stochastic dynamics. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

DOE PAGES

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-23

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol’s decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes thatmore » the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. Here, a sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.« less

Global sensitivity analysis in stochastic simulators of uncertain reaction networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Navarro Jimenez, M.; Le Maître, O. P.; Knio, O. M.

2016-12-01

Stochastic models of chemical systems are often subjected to uncertainties in kinetic parameters in addition to the inherent random nature of their dynamics. Uncertainty quantification in such systems is generally achieved by means of sensitivity analyses in which one characterizes the variability with the uncertain kinetic parameters of the first statistical moments of model predictions. In this work, we propose an original global sensitivity analysis method where the parametric and inherent variability sources are both treated through Sobol's decomposition of the variance into contributions from arbitrary subset of uncertain parameters and stochastic reaction channels. The conceptual development only assumes that the inherent and parametric sources are independent, and considers the Poisson processes in the random-time-change representation of the state dynamics as the fundamental objects governing the inherent stochasticity. A sampling algorithm is proposed to perform the global sensitivity analysis, and to estimate the partial variances and sensitivity indices characterizing the importance of the various sources of variability and their interactions. The birth-death and Schlögl models are used to illustrate both the implementation of the algorithm and the richness of the proposed analysis method. The output of the proposed sensitivity analysis is also contrasted with a local derivative-based sensitivity analysis method classically used for this type of systems.

Dynamic statistical optimization of GNSS radio occultation bending angles: advanced algorithm and performance analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Y.; Kirchengast, G.; Scherllin-Pirscher, B.; Norman, R.; Yuan, Y. B.; Fritzer, J.; Schwaerz, M.; Zhang, K.

2015-08-01

We introduce a new dynamic statistical optimization algorithm to initialize ionosphere-corrected bending angles of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-based radio occultation (RO) measurements. The new algorithm estimates background and observation error covariance matrices with geographically varying uncertainty profiles and realistic global-mean correlation matrices. The error covariance matrices estimated by the new approach are more accurate and realistic than in simplified existing approaches and can therefore be used in statistical optimization to provide optimal bending angle profiles for high-altitude initialization of the subsequent Abel transform retrieval of refractivity. The new algorithm is evaluated against the existing Wegener Center Occultation Processing System version 5.6 (OPSv5.6) algorithm, using simulated data on two test days from January and July 2008 and real observed CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) measurements from the complete months of January and July 2008. The following is achieved for the new method's performance compared to OPSv5.6: (1) significant reduction of random errors (standard deviations) of optimized bending angles down to about half of their size or more; (2) reduction of the systematic differences in optimized bending angles for simulated MetOp data; (3) improved retrieval of refractivity and temperature profiles; and (4) realistically estimated global-mean correlation matrices and realistic uncertainty fields for the background and observations. Overall the results indicate high suitability for employing the new dynamic approach in the processing of long-term RO data into a reference climate record, leading to well-characterized and high-quality atmospheric profiles over the entire stratosphere.

GPS Spoofing Attack Characterization and Detection in Smart Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blum, Rick S.; Pradhan, Parth; Nagananda, Kyatsandra

The problem of global positioning system (GPS) spoofing attacks on smart grids endowed with phasor measurement units (PMUs) is addressed, taking into account the dynamical behavior of the states of the system. First, it is shown how GPS spoofing introduces a timing synchronization error in the phasor readings recorded by the PMUs and alters the measurement matrix of the dynamical model. Then, a generalized likelihood ratio-based hypotheses testing procedure is devised to detect changes in the measurement matrix when the system is subjected to a spoofing attack. Monte Carlo simulations are performed on the 9-bus, 3-machine test grid to demonstratemore » the implication of the spoofing attack on dynamic state estimation and to analyze the performance of the proposed hypotheses test.« less

Single stock dynamics on high-frequency data: from a compressed coding perspective.

PubMed

Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2014-01-01

High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors.

Single Stock Dynamics on High-Frequency Data: From a Compressed Coding Perspective

PubMed Central

Fushing, Hsieh; Chen, Shu-Chun; Hwang, Chii-Ruey

2014-01-01

High-frequency return, trading volume and transaction number are digitally coded via a nonparametric computing algorithm, called hierarchical factor segmentation (HFS), and then are coupled together to reveal a single stock dynamics without global state-space structural assumptions. The base-8 digital coding sequence, which is capable of revealing contrasting aggregation against sparsity of extreme events, is further compressed into a shortened sequence of state transitions. This compressed digital code sequence vividly demonstrates that the aggregation of large absolute returns is the primary driving force for stimulating both the aggregations of large trading volumes and transaction numbers. The state of system-wise synchrony is manifested with very frequent recurrence in the stock dynamics. And this data-driven dynamic mechanism is seen to correspondingly vary as the global market transiting in and out of contraction-expansion cycles. These results not only elaborate the stock dynamics of interest to a fuller extent, but also contradict some classical theories in finance. Overall this version of stock dynamics is potentially more coherent and realistic, especially when the current financial market is increasingly powered by high-frequency trading via computer algorithms, rather than by individual investors. PMID:24586235

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall.

PubMed

Winkelmann, R; Levermann, A; Martin, M A; Frieler, K

2012-12-13

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica and thus in the ultimate fate of the precipitation-deposited ice mass. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500 (ref. 8), show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario. The reported effect thus strongly counters a potential negative contribution to global sea level by the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

ALM-FATES: Using dynamic vegetation and demography to capture changes in forest carbon cycling and competition at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holm, J. A.; Knox, R. G.; Koven, C.; Riley, W. J.; Bisht, G.; Fisher, R.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Dietze, M.; Chambers, J. Q.

2017-12-01

The inclusion of dynamic vegetation demography in Earth System Models (ESMs) has been identified as a critical step in moving ESMs towards more realistic representations of plant ecology and the processes that govern climatically important fluxes of carbon, energy, and water. Successful application of dynamic vegetation models, and process-based approaches to simulate plant demography, succession, and response to disturbances without climate envelopes at the global scale is a challenging endeavor. We integrated demographic processes using the Functionally-Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) in the newly developed ACME Land Model (ALM). We then use an ALM-FATES globally gridded simulation for the first time to investigate plant functional type (PFT) distributions and dynamic turnover rates. Initial global simulations successfully include six interacting and competing PFTs (ranging from tropical to boreal, evergreen, deciduous, needleleaf and broadleaf); including more PFTs is planned. Global maps of net primary productivity, leaf area index, and total vegetation biomass by ALM-FATES matched patterns and values when compared to CLM4.5-BGC and MODIS estimates. We also present techniques for PFT parameterization based on the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), field based turnover rates, improved PFT groupings based on trait-tradeoffs, and improved representation of multiple canopy positions. Finally, we applied the improved ALM-FATES model at a central Amazon tropical and western U.S. temperate sites and demonstrate improvements in predicted PFT size- and age-structure and regional distribution. Results from the Amazon tropical site investigate the ability and magnitude of a tropical forest to act as a carbon sink by 2100 with a doubling of CO2, while results from the temperate sites investigate the response of forest mortality with increasing droughts.

Nonlinear Dynamics of a Multistage Gear Transmission System with Multi-Clearance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Ling; Zhang, Yue; Gao, Nan; Hu, Aijun; Xing, Jingtang

The nonlinear torsional model of a multistage gear transmission system which consists of a planetary gear and two parallel gear stages is established with time-varying meshing stiffness, comprehensive gear error and multi-clearance. The nonlinear dynamic responses are analyzed by applying the reference of backlash bifurcation parameters. The motions of the system on the change of backlash are identified through global bifurcation diagram, largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE), FFT spectra, Poincaré maps, the phase diagrams and time series. The numerical results demonstrate that the system exhibits rich features of nonlinear dynamics such as the periodic motion, nonperiodic states and chaotic states. It is found that the sun-planet backlash has more complex effect on the system than the ring-planet backlash. The motions of the system with backlash of parallel gear are diverse including some different multi-periodic motions. Furthermore, the state of the system can change from chaos into quasi-periodic behavior, which means that the dynamic behavior of the system is composed of more stable components with the increase of the backlash. Correspondingly, the parameters of the system should be designed properly and controlled timely for better operation and enhancing the life of the system.

A global flash flood forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baugh, Calum; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Hewson, Tim; Zsoter, Ervin

2016-04-01

The sudden and devastating nature of flash flood events means it is imperative to provide early warnings such as those derived from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts. Currently such systems exist on basin, national and continental scales in Europe, North America and Australia but rely on high resolution NWP forecasts or rainfall-radar nowcasting, neither of which have global coverage. To produce global flash flood forecasts this work investigates the possibility of using forecasts from a global NWP system. In particular we: (i) discuss how global NWP can be used for flash flood forecasting and discuss strengths and weaknesses; (ii) demonstrate how a robust evaluation can be performed given the rarity of the event; (iii) highlight the challenges and opportunities in communicating flash flood uncertainty to decision makers; and (iv) explore future developments which would significantly improve global flash flood forecasting. The proposed forecast system uses ensemble surface runoff forecasts from the ECMWF H-TESSEL land surface scheme. A flash flood index is generated using the ERIC (Enhanced Runoff Index based on Climatology) methodology [Raynaud et al., 2014]. This global methodology is applied to a series of flash floods across southern Europe. Results from the system are compared against warnings produced using the higher resolution COSMO-LEPS limited area model. The global system is evaluated by comparing forecasted warning locations against a flash flood database of media reports created in partnership with floodlist.com. To deal with the lack of objectivity in media reports we carefully assess the suitability of different skill scores and apply spatial uncertainty thresholds to the observations. To communicate the uncertainties of the flash flood system output we experiment with a dynamic region-growing algorithm. This automatically clusters regions of similar return period exceedence probabilities, thus presenting the at-risk areas at a spatial resolution appropriate to the NWP system. We then demonstrate how these warning areas could eventually complement existing global systems such as the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), to give warnings of flash floods. This work demonstrates the possibility of creating a global flash flood forecasting system based on forecasts from existing global NWP systems. Future developments, in post-processing for example, will need to address an under-prediction bias, for extreme point rainfall, that is innate to current-generation global models.

Agreement dynamics on interaction networks with diverse topologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrat, Alain; Baronchelli, Andrea; Dall'Asta, Luca; Loreto, Vittorio

2007-06-01

We review the behavior of a recently introduced model of agreement dynamics, called the "Naming Game." This model describes the self-organized emergence of linguistic conventions and the establishment of simple communication systems in a population of agents with pairwise local interactions. The mechanisms of convergence towards agreement strongly depend on the network of possible interactions between the agents. In particular, the mean-field case in which all agents communicate with all the others is not efficient, since a large temporary memory is requested for the agents. On the other hand, regular lattice topologies lead to a fast local convergence but to a slow global dynamics similar to coarsening phenomena. The embedding of the agents in a small-world network represents an interesting tradeoff: a local consensus is easily reached, while the long-range links allow to bypass coarsening-like convergence. We also consider alternative adaptive strategies which can lead to faster global convergence.

A predictability study of Lorenz's 28-variable model as a dynamical system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krishnamurthy, V.

1993-01-01

The dynamics of error growth in a two-layer nonlinear quasi-geostrophic model has been studied to gain an understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric predictability. The growth of random errors of varying initial magnitudes has been studied, and the relation between this classical approach and the concepts of the nonlinear dynamical systems theory has been explored. The local and global growths of random errors have been expressed partly in terms of the properties of an error ellipsoid and the Liapunov exponents determined by linear error dynamics. The local growth of small errors is initially governed by several modes of the evolving error ellipsoid but soon becomes dominated by the longest axis. The average global growth of small errors is exponential with a growth rate consistent with the largest Liapunov exponent. The duration of the exponential growth phase depends on the initial magnitude of the errors. The subsequent large errors undergo a nonlinear growth with a steadily decreasing growth rate and attain saturation that defines the limit of predictability. The degree of chaos and the largest Liapunov exponent show considerable variation with change in the forcing, which implies that the time variation in the external forcing can introduce variable character to the predictability.

Global identifiability of linear compartmental models--a computer algebra algorithm.

PubMed

Audoly, S; D'Angiò, L; Saccomani, M P; Cobelli, C

1998-01-01

A priori global identifiability deals with the uniqueness of the solution for the unknown parameters of a model and is, thus, a prerequisite for parameter estimation of biological dynamic models. Global identifiability is however difficult to test, since it requires solving a system of algebraic nonlinear equations which increases both in nonlinearity degree and number of terms and unknowns with increasing model order. In this paper, a computer algebra tool, GLOBI (GLOBal Identifiability) is presented, which combines the topological transfer function method with the Buchberger algorithm, to test global identifiability of linear compartmental models. GLOBI allows for the automatic testing of a priori global identifiability of general structure compartmental models from general multi input-multi output experiments. Examples of usage of GLOBI to analyze a priori global identifiability of some complex biological compartmental models are provided.

Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlström, Anders; Xia, Jianyang; Arneth, Almut; Luo, Yiqi; Smith, Benjamin

2015-05-01

Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.

The Virtual Brain: Modeling Biological Correlates of Recovery after Chronic Stroke

PubMed Central

Falcon, Maria Inez; Riley, Jeffrey D.; Jirsa, Viktor; McIntosh, Anthony R.; Shereen, Ahmed D.; Chen, E. Elinor; Solodkin, Ana

2015-01-01

There currently remains considerable variability in stroke survivor recovery. To address this, developing individualized treatment has become an important goal in stroke treatment. As a first step, it is necessary to determine brain dynamics associated with stroke and recovery. While recent methods have made strides in this direction, we still lack physiological biomarkers. The Virtual Brain (TVB) is a novel application for modeling brain dynamics that simulates an individual’s brain activity by integrating their own neuroimaging data with local biophysical models. Here, we give a detailed description of the TVB modeling process and explore model parameters associated with stroke. In order to establish a parallel between this new type of modeling and those currently in use, in this work we establish an association between a specific TVB parameter (long-range coupling) that increases after stroke with metrics derived from graph analysis. We used TVB to simulate the individual BOLD signals for 20 patients with stroke and 10 healthy controls. We performed graph analysis on their structural connectivity matrices calculating degree centrality, betweenness centrality, and global efficiency. Linear regression analysis demonstrated that long-range coupling is negatively correlated with global efficiency (P = 0.038), but is not correlated with degree centrality or betweenness centrality. Our results suggest that the larger influence of local dynamics seen through the long-range coupling parameter is closely associated with a decreased efficiency of the system. We thus propose that the increase in the long-range parameter in TVB (indicating a bias toward local over global dynamics) is deleterious because it reduces communication as suggested by the decrease in efficiency. The new model platform TVB hence provides a novel perspective to understanding biophysical parameters responsible for global brain dynamics after stroke, allowing the design of focused therapeutic interventions. PMID:26579071

Receiver Design, Performance Analysis, and Evaluation for Space-Borne Laser Altimeters and Space-to-Space Laser Ranging Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davidson, Frederic M.; Sun, Xiaoli; Field, Christopher T.

1996-01-01

This progress report consists of two separate reports. The first one describes our work on the use of variable gain amplifiers to increase the receiver dynamic range of space borne laser altimeters such as NASA's Geoscience Laser Altimeter Systems (GLAS). The requirement of the receiver dynamic range was first calculated. A breadboard variable gain amplifier circuit was made and the performance was fully characterized. The circuit will also be tested in flight on board the Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA-02) next year. The second report describes our research on the master clock oscillator frequency calibration for space borne laser altimeter systems using global positioning system (GPS) receivers.

High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

Model-data integration to improve the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Thonicke, Kirsten; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Thurner, Martin; von Bloh, Werner; Dorigo, Wouter; Carvalhais, Nuno

2017-04-01

Dynamic global vegetation models show large uncertainties regarding the development of the land carbon balance under future climate change conditions. This uncertainty is partly caused by differences in how vegetation carbon turnover is represented in global vegetation models. Model-data integration approaches might help to systematically assess and improve model performances and thus to potentially reduce the uncertainty in terrestrial vegetation responses under future climate change. Here we present several applications of model-data integration with the LPJmL (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Lands) dynamic global vegetation model to systematically improve the representation of processes or to estimate model parameters. In a first application, we used global satellite-derived datasets of FAPAR (fraction of absorbed photosynthetic activity), albedo and gross primary production to estimate phenology- and productivity-related model parameters using a genetic optimization algorithm. Thereby we identified major limitations of the phenology module and implemented an alternative empirical phenology model. The new phenology module and optimized model parameters resulted in a better performance of LPJmL in representing global spatial patterns of biomass, tree cover, and the temporal dynamic of atmospheric CO2. Therefore, we used in a second application additionally global datasets of biomass and land cover to estimate model parameters that control vegetation establishment and mortality. The results demonstrate the ability to improve simulations of vegetation dynamics but also highlight the need to improve the representation of mortality processes in dynamic global vegetation models. In a third application, we used multiple site-level observations of ecosystem carbon and water exchange, biomass and soil organic carbon to jointly estimate various model parameters that control ecosystem dynamics. This exercise demonstrates the strong role of individual data streams on the simulated ecosystem dynamics which consequently changed the development of ecosystem carbon stocks and fluxes under future climate and CO2 change. In summary, our results demonstrate challenges and the potential of using model-data integration approaches to improve a dynamic global vegetation model.

Method and apparatus for routing data in an inter-nodal communications lattice of a massively parallel computer system by dynamic global mapping of contended links

DOEpatents

Archer, Charles Jens [Rochester, MN; Musselman, Roy Glenn [Rochester, MN; Peters, Amanda [Rochester, MN; Pinnow, Kurt Walter [Rochester, MN; Swartz, Brent Allen [Chippewa Falls, WI; Wallenfelt, Brian Paul [Eden Prairie, MN

2011-10-04

A massively parallel nodal computer system periodically collects and broadcasts usage data for an internal communications network. A node sending data over the network makes a global routing determination using the network usage data. Preferably, network usage data comprises an N-bit usage value for each output buffer associated with a network link. An optimum routing is determined by summing the N-bit values associated with each link through which a data packet must pass, and comparing the sums associated with different possible routes.

A New Global Geomorphology?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, V. R.

1985-01-01

Geomorphology is entering a new era of discovery and scientific excitement centered on expanding scales of concern in both time and space. The catalysts for this development include technological advances in global remote sensing systems, mathematical modeling, and the dating of geomorphic surfaces and processes. Even more important are new scientific questions centered on comparative planetary geomorphology, the interaction of tectonism with landscapes, the dynamics of late Cenozoic climatic changes, the influence of cataclysmic processes, the recognition of extremely ancient landforms, and the history of the world's hydrologic systems. These questions all involve feedback relationships with allied sciences that have recently yielded profound developments.

Generating macroscopic chaos in a network of globally coupled phase oscillators

PubMed Central

So, Paul; Barreto, Ernest

2011-01-01

We consider an infinite network of globally coupled phase oscillators in which the natural frequencies of the oscillators are drawn from a symmetric bimodal distribution. We demonstrate that macroscopic chaos can occur in this system when the coupling strength varies periodically in time. We identify period-doubling cascades to chaos, attractor crises, and horseshoe dynamics for the macroscopic mean field. Based on recent work that clarified the bifurcation structure of the static bimodal Kuramoto system, we qualitatively describe the mechanism for the generation of such complicated behavior in the time varying case. PMID:21974662

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Effect of dark matter halo on global spiral modes in a collisionless galactic disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Soumavo; Saini, Tarun Deep; Jog, Chanda J.

2017-07-01

Low surface brightness (LSB) galaxies are dominated by dark matter halo from the innermost radii; hence they are ideal candidates to investigate the influence of dark matter on different dynamical aspects of spiral galaxies. Here, we study the effect of dark matter halo on grand-design, m = 2 , spiral modes in a galactic disk, treated as a collisionless system, by carrying out a global modal analysis within the WKB approximation. First, we study a superthin, LSB galaxy UGC 7321 and show that it does not support discrete global spiral modes when modeled as a disk-alone system or as a disk plus dark matter system. Even a moderate increase in the stellar central surface density does not yield any global spiral modes. This naturally explains the observed lack of strong large-scale spiral structure in LSBs. An earlier work (Ghosh et al., 2016) where the galactic disk was treated as a fluid system for simplicity had shown that the dominant halo could not arrest global modes. We found that this difference arises due to the different dispersion relation used in the two cases and which plays a crucial role in the search for global spiral modes. Thus the correct treatment of stars as a collisionless system as done here results in the suppression of global spiral modes, in agreement with the observations. We performed a similar modal analysis for the Galaxy, and found that the dark matter halo has a negligible effect on large-scale spiral structure.

A Kalman Filtering Perspective for Multiatlas Segmentation*

PubMed Central

Gao, Yi; Zhu, Liangjia; Cates, Joshua; MacLeod, Rob S.; Bouix, Sylvain; Tannenbaum, Allen

2016-01-01

In multiatlas segmentation, one typically registers several atlases to the novel image, and their respective segmented label images are transformed and fused to form the final segmentation. In this work, we provide a new dynamical system perspective for multiatlas segmentation, inspired by the following fact: The transformation that aligns the current atlas to the novel image can be not only computed by direct registration but also inferred from the transformation that aligns the previous atlas to the image together with the transformation between the two atlases. This process is similar to the global positioning system on a vehicle, which gets position by inquiring from the satellite and by employing the previous location and velocity—neither answer in isolation being perfect. To solve this problem, a dynamical system scheme is crucial to combine the two pieces of information; for example, a Kalman filtering scheme is used. Accordingly, in this work, a Kalman multiatlas segmentation is proposed to stabilize the global/affine registration step. The contributions of this work are twofold. First, it provides a new dynamical systematic perspective for standard independent multiatlas registrations, and it is solved by Kalman filtering. Second, with very little extra computation, it can be combined with most existing multiatlas segmentation schemes for better registration/segmentation accuracy. PMID:26807162

Global Sliding Mode Control for the Bank-to-Turn of Hypersonic Glide Vehicle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Yu, Y. F.; Yan, P. P.; Fan, Y. H.; Guo, X. W.

2017-03-01

The technology of Bank-to-Turn has been recognized as an attractive direction due to their significance for the control of hypersonic glide vehicle. Strong coupling existing among pitch, yaw and roll channel was a great challenge for banking to turn, and thus a novel global sliding mode controller was designed for hypersonic glider in this paper. Considering the coupling among channels as interference, we can use invariance principle of sliding mode motion to realize the decoupling control. The global sliding mode control system could eliminate the stage of reaching, which can lead to the realization of whole systematic process decoupling control. When the global sliding mode factor was designed, a minimum norm pole assignment method of the sliding mode matrix was introduced to improve the robustness of the system. The method of continuity of symbolic function was adopted to overcome the chatter, which furtherly modify the transient performance of the system. The simulation results show that this method has good performance of three channel decoupling control and guidance command tracking. And it can meet the requirements of the dynamic performance of the system.

An enhanced model of land water and energy for global hydrologic and earth-system studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena; Dunne, Krista A.; Findell, Kirsten L.; Gleeson, Tom; Liang, Zhi; Phillips, Peter; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Swenson, Sean

2014-01-01

LM3 is a new model of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon, intended for use in global hydrologic analyses and as a component of earth-system and physical-climate models. It is designed to improve upon the performance and to extend the scope of the predecessor Land Dynamics (LaD) and LM3V models by better quantifying the physical controls of climate and biogeochemistry and by relating more directly to components of the global water system that touch human concerns. LM3 includes multilayer representations of temperature, liquid water content, and ice content of both snowpack and macroporous soil–bedrock; topography-based description of saturated area and groundwater discharge; and transport of runoff to the ocean via a global river and lake network. Sensible heat transport by water mass is accounted throughout for a complete energy balance. Carbon and vegetation dynamics and biophysics are represented as in LM3V. In numerical experiments, LM3 avoids some of the limitations of the LaD model and provides qualitatively (though not always quantitatively) reasonable estimates, from a global perspective, of observed spatial and/or temporal variations of vegetation density, albedo, streamflow, water-table depth, permafrost, and lake levels. Amplitude and phase of annual cycle of total water storage are simulated well. Realism of modeled lake levels varies widely. The water table tends to be consistently too shallow in humid regions. Biophysical properties have an artificial stepwise spatial structure, and equilibrium vegetation is sensitive to initial conditions. Explicit resolution of thick (>100 m) unsaturated zones and permafrost is possible, but only at the cost of long (≫300 yr) model spinup times.

Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

2017-04-01

The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

Dynamics of Robertson–Walker spacetimes with diffusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alho, A., E-mail: aalho@math.ist.utl.pt; Calogero, S., E-mail: calogero@chalmers.se; Machado Ramos, M.P., E-mail: mpr@mct.uminho.pt

2015-03-15

We study the dynamics of spatially homogeneous and isotropic spacetimes containing a fluid undergoing microscopic velocity diffusion in a cosmological scalar field. After deriving a few exact solutions of the equations, we continue by analyzing the qualitative behavior of general solutions. To this purpose we recast the equations in the form of a two dimensional dynamical system and perform a global analysis of the flow. Among the admissible behaviors, we find solutions that are asymptotically de-Sitter both in the past and future time directions and which undergo accelerated expansion at all times.

Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies. PMID:29408909

Dynamical analysis of the global business-cycle synchronization.

PubMed

Lopes, António M; Tenreiro Machado, J A; Huffstot, John S; Mata, Maria Eugénia

2018-01-01

This paper reports the dynamical analysis of the business cycles of 12 (developed and developing) countries over the last 56 years by applying computational techniques used for tackling complex systems. They reveal long-term convergence and country-level interconnections because of close contagion effects caused by bilateral networking exposure. Interconnectivity determines the magnitude of cross-border impacts. Local features and shock propagation complexity also may be true engines for local configuration of cycles. The algorithmic modeling proves to represent a solid approach to study the complex dynamics involved in the world economies.

Traveling wave in a three-dimensional array of conformist and contrarian oscillators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoang, Danh-Tai; Jo, Junghyo; Hong, Hyunsuk

2015-03-01

We consider a system of conformist and contrarian oscillators coupled locally in a three-dimensional cubic lattice and explore collective behavior of the system. The conformist oscillators attractively interact with the neighbor oscillators and therefore tend to be aligned with the neighbors' phase. The contrarian oscillators interact repulsively with the neighbors and therefore tend to be out of phase with them. In this paper, we investigate whether many peculiar dynamics that have been observed in the mean-field system with global coupling can emerge even with local coupling. In particular, we pay attention to the possibility that a traveling wave may arise. We find that the traveling wave occurs due to coupling asymmetry and not by global coupling; this observation confirms that the global coupling is not essential to the occurrence of a traveling wave in the system. The traveling wave can be a mechanism for the coherent rhythm generation of the circadian clock or of hormone secretion in biological systems under local coupling.

Bistable traveling waves for a competitive-cooperative system with nonlocal delays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Yanling; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

2018-04-01

This paper is devoted to the study of bistable traveling waves for a competitive-cooperative reaction and diffusion system with nonlocal time delays. The existence of bistable waves is established by appealing to the theory of monotone semiflows and the finite-delay approximations. Then the global stability of such traveling waves is obtained via a squeezing technique and a dynamical systems approach.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Scale invariance in natural and artificial collective systems: a review

PubMed Central

Huepe, Cristián

2017-01-01

Self-organized collective coordinated behaviour is an impressive phenomenon, observed in a variety of natural and artificial systems, in which coherent global structures or dynamics emerge from local interactions between individual parts. If the degree of collective integration of a system does not depend on size, its level of robustness and adaptivity is typically increased and we refer to it as scale-invariant. In this review, we first identify three main types of self-organized scale-invariant systems: scale-invariant spatial structures, scale-invariant topologies and scale-invariant dynamics. We then provide examples of scale invariance from different domains in science, describe their origins and main features and discuss potential challenges and approaches for designing and engineering artificial systems with scale-invariant properties. PMID:29093130

Real-Time High-Dynamic Range Texture Mapping

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-01-01

the renderings produced by radiosity and global illumination algorithms. As a particular example, Greg Ward’s RADIANCE synthetic imaging system [32...in soft- ware only. [26] presented a technique for performing Ward’s tone reproduction algo- rithm interactively to visualize radiosity solutions

Research Review, 1984

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1986-01-01

A variety of topics relevant to global modeling and simulation are presented. Areas of interest include: (1) analysis and forecast studies; (2) satellite observing systems; (3) analysis and forecast model development; (4) atmospheric dynamics and diagnostic studies; (5) climate/ocean-air interactions; and notes from lectures.

Implicit–explicit (IMEX) Runge–Kutta methods for non-hydrostatic atmospheric models

DOE PAGES

Gardner, David J.; Guerra, Jorge E.; Hamon, François P.; ...

2018-04-17

The efficient simulation of non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics requires time integration methods capable of overcoming the explicit stability constraints on time step size arising from acoustic waves. In this work, we investigate various implicit–explicit (IMEX) additive Runge–Kutta (ARK) methods for evolving acoustic waves implicitly to enable larger time step sizes in a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. The IMEX formulations considered include horizontally explicit – vertically implicit (HEVI) approaches as well as splittings that treat some horizontal dynamics implicitly. In each case, the impact of solving nonlinear systems in each implicit ARK stage in a linearly implicit fashion is also explored.The accuracymore » and efficiency of the IMEX splittings, ARK methods, and solver options are evaluated on a gravity wave and baroclinic wave test case. HEVI splittings that treat some vertical dynamics explicitly do not show a benefit in solution quality or run time over the most implicit HEVI formulation. While splittings that implicitly evolve some horizontal dynamics increase the maximum stable step size of a method, the gains are insufficient to overcome the additional cost of solving a globally coupled system. Solving implicit stage systems in a linearly implicit manner limits the solver cost but this is offset by a reduction in step size to achieve the desired accuracy for some methods. Overall, the third-order ARS343 and ARK324 methods performed the best, followed by the second-order ARS232 and ARK232 methods.« less

Implicit-explicit (IMEX) Runge-Kutta methods for non-hydrostatic atmospheric models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, David J.; Guerra, Jorge E.; Hamon, François P.; Reynolds, Daniel R.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Woodward, Carol S.

2018-04-01

The efficient simulation of non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics requires time integration methods capable of overcoming the explicit stability constraints on time step size arising from acoustic waves. In this work, we investigate various implicit-explicit (IMEX) additive Runge-Kutta (ARK) methods for evolving acoustic waves implicitly to enable larger time step sizes in a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. The IMEX formulations considered include horizontally explicit - vertically implicit (HEVI) approaches as well as splittings that treat some horizontal dynamics implicitly. In each case, the impact of solving nonlinear systems in each implicit ARK stage in a linearly implicit fashion is also explored. The accuracy and efficiency of the IMEX splittings, ARK methods, and solver options are evaluated on a gravity wave and baroclinic wave test case. HEVI splittings that treat some vertical dynamics explicitly do not show a benefit in solution quality or run time over the most implicit HEVI formulation. While splittings that implicitly evolve some horizontal dynamics increase the maximum stable step size of a method, the gains are insufficient to overcome the additional cost of solving a globally coupled system. Solving implicit stage systems in a linearly implicit manner limits the solver cost but this is offset by a reduction in step size to achieve the desired accuracy for some methods. Overall, the third-order ARS343 and ARK324 methods performed the best, followed by the second-order ARS232 and ARK232 methods.

Implicit–explicit (IMEX) Runge–Kutta methods for non-hydrostatic atmospheric models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gardner, David J.; Guerra, Jorge E.; Hamon, François P.

The efficient simulation of non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics requires time integration methods capable of overcoming the explicit stability constraints on time step size arising from acoustic waves. In this work, we investigate various implicit–explicit (IMEX) additive Runge–Kutta (ARK) methods for evolving acoustic waves implicitly to enable larger time step sizes in a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. The IMEX formulations considered include horizontally explicit – vertically implicit (HEVI) approaches as well as splittings that treat some horizontal dynamics implicitly. In each case, the impact of solving nonlinear systems in each implicit ARK stage in a linearly implicit fashion is also explored.The accuracymore » and efficiency of the IMEX splittings, ARK methods, and solver options are evaluated on a gravity wave and baroclinic wave test case. HEVI splittings that treat some vertical dynamics explicitly do not show a benefit in solution quality or run time over the most implicit HEVI formulation. While splittings that implicitly evolve some horizontal dynamics increase the maximum stable step size of a method, the gains are insufficient to overcome the additional cost of solving a globally coupled system. Solving implicit stage systems in a linearly implicit manner limits the solver cost but this is offset by a reduction in step size to achieve the desired accuracy for some methods. Overall, the third-order ARS343 and ARK324 methods performed the best, followed by the second-order ARS232 and ARK232 methods.« less

Singularity-free dynamic equations of spacecraft-manipulator systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

From, Pål J.; Ytterstad Pettersen, Kristin; Gravdahl, Jan T.

2011-12-01

In this paper we derive the singularity-free dynamic equations of spacecraft-manipulator systems using a minimal representation. Spacecraft are normally modeled using Euler angles, which leads to singularities, or Euler parameters, which is not a minimal representation and thus not suited for Lagrange's equations. We circumvent these issues by introducing quasi-coordinates which allows us to derive the dynamics using minimal and globally valid non-Euclidean configuration coordinates. This is a great advantage as the configuration space of a spacecraft is non-Euclidean. We thus obtain a computationally efficient and singularity-free formulation of the dynamic equations with the same complexity as the conventional Lagrangian approach. The closed form formulation makes the proposed approach well suited for system analysis and model-based control. This paper focuses on the dynamic properties of free-floating and free-flying spacecraft-manipulator systems and we show how to calculate the inertia and Coriolis matrices in such a way that this can be implemented for simulation and control purposes without extensive knowledge of the mathematical background. This paper represents the first detailed study of modeling of spacecraft-manipulator systems with a focus on a singularity free formulation using the proposed framework.

Dynamical Approach Study of Spurious Steady-State Numerical Solutions of Nonlinear Differential Equations. Part 2; Global Asymptotic Behavior of Time Discretizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yee, H. C.; Sweby, P. K.

1995-01-01

The global asymptotic nonlinear behavior of 11 explicit and implicit time discretizations for four 2 x 2 systems of first-order autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is analyzed. The objectives are to gain a basic understanding of the difference in the dynamics of numerics between the scalars and systems of nonlinear autonomous ODEs and to set a baseline global asymptotic solution behavior of these schemes for practical computations in computational fluid dynamics. We show how 'numerical' basins of attraction can complement the bifurcation diagrams in gaining more detailed global asymptotic behavior of time discretizations for nonlinear differential equations (DEs). We show how in the presence of spurious asymptotes the basins of the true stable steady states can be segmented by the basins of the spurious stable and unstable asymptotes. One major consequence of this phenomenon which is not commonly known is that this spurious behavior can result in a dramatic distortion and, in most cases, a dramatic shrinkage and segmentation of the basin of attraction of the true solution for finite time steps. Such distortion, shrinkage and segmentation of the numerical basins of attraction will occur regardless of the stability of the spurious asymptotes, and will occur for unconditionally stable implicit linear multistep methods. In other words, for the same (common) steady-state solution the associated basin of attraction of the DE might be very different from the discretized counterparts and the numerical basin of attraction can be very different from numerical method to numerical method. The results can be used as an explanation for possible causes of error, and slow convergence and nonconvergence of steady-state numerical solutions when using the time-dependent approach for nonlinear hyperbolic or parabolic PDEs.

Use of IMS data and its potential for research through global noble gases concentration maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, Lucrezia; Kalinowski, Martin; Gueibe, Christophe; Camps, Johan; Gheddou, Abdelhakim; Kusmierczyk-Michulec, Jolanta; Schoeppner, Michael

2017-04-01

The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) established for verification purposes a global monitoring system for atmospheric radioisotopes and noble gas radioactivity. Daily activity concentrations have been collected worldwide for over 15 years providing unique data sets with long term time series that can be used for atmospheric circulation dynamics analysis. In this study, we want to emphasize the value of worldwide noble gas data by reconstructing global xenon concentration maps and comparing these observations with ATM simulations. By creating a residual plot, we can improve our understanding of our source estimation level for each region.

Dynamic Business Networks: A Headache for Sustainable Systems Interoperability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agostinho, Carlos; Jardim-Goncalves, Ricardo

Collaborative networked environments emerged with the spread of the internet, contributing to overcome past communication barriers, and identifying interoperability as an essential property. When achieved seamlessly, efficiency is increased in the entire product life cycle. Nowadays, most organizations try to attain interoperability by establishing peer-to-peer mappings with the different partners, or in optimized networks, by using international standard models as the core for information exchange. In current industrial practice, mappings are only defined once, and the morphisms that represent them, are hardcoded in the enterprise systems. This solution has been effective for static environments, where enterprise and product models are valid for decades. However, with an increasingly complex and dynamic global market, models change frequently to answer new customer requirements. This paper draws concepts from the complex systems science and proposes a framework for sustainable systems interoperability in dynamic networks, enabling different organizations to evolve at their own rate.

Dynamically generated patterns in dense suspensions of active filaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prathyusha, K. R.; Henkes, Silke; Sknepnek, Rastko

2018-02-01

We use Langevin dynamics simulations to study dynamical behavior of a dense planar layer of active semiflexible filaments. Using the strength of active force and the thermal persistence length as parameters, we map a detailed phase diagram and identify several nonequilibrium phases in this system. In addition to a slowly flowing melt phase, we observe that, for sufficiently high activity, collective flow accompanied by signatures of local polar and nematic order appears in the system. This state is also characterized by strong density fluctuations. Furthermore, we identify an activity-driven crossover from this state of coherently flowing bundles of filaments to a phase with no global flow, formed by individual filaments coiled into rotating spirals. This suggests a mechanism where the system responds to activity by changing the shape of active agents, an effect with no analog in systems of active particles without internal degrees of freedom.

Livestock production systems in developing countries: status, drivers, trends.

PubMed

Steinfeld, H; Wassenaar, T; Jutzi, S

2006-08-01

This paper describes and assesses the current status of livestock production systems, the drivers of global livestock production, and the major trends in such production. The analysis covers the six major livestock species: cattle and buffaloes, goats and sheep, pigs and chickens. Global drivers of the livestock sector include economic growth and income, demographic and land use changes, dietary adjustments and technological change. The rate of change and direction of livestock development vary greatly among world regions, with Asia showing the most rapid growth and structural change. The paper also examines system dynamics, by analysing the ways livestock production has adjusted to external forces. A brief discussion of how these trends link to food safety concludes the paper.

From local uncertainty to global predictions: Making predictions on fractal basins

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

In nonlinear systems long term dynamics is governed by the attractors present in phase space. The presence of a chaotic saddle gives rise to basins of attraction with fractal boundaries and sometimes even to Wada boundaries. These two phenomena involve extreme difficulties in the prediction of the future state of the system. However, we show here that it is possible to make statistical predictions even if we do not have any previous knowledge of the initial conditions or the time series of the system until it reaches its final state. In this work, we develop a general method to make statistical predictions in systems with fractal basins. In particular, we have applied this new method to the Duffing oscillator for a choice of parameters where the system possesses the Wada property. We have computed the statistical properties of the Duffing oscillator for different phase space resolutions, to obtain information about the global dynamics of the system. The key idea is that the fraction of initial conditions that evolve towards each attractor is scale free—which we illustrate numerically. We have also shown numerically how having partial information about the initial conditions of the system does not improve in general the predictions in the Wada regions. PMID:29668687

Precipitation variability on global pasturelands may affect food security in livestock-dependent regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloat, L.; Gerber, J. S.; Samberg, L. H.; Smith, W. K.; West, P. C.; Herrero, M.; Brendan, P.; Cecile, G.; Katharina, W.; Smith, W. K.

2016-12-01

The need to feed an increasing number of people while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services is one of the key challenges currently facing humanity. Livestock systems are likely to be a crucial piece of this puzzle, as urbanization and changing diets in much of the world lead to increases in global meat consumption. This predicted increase in global demand for livestock products will challenge the ability of pastures and rangelands to maintain or increase their productivity. The majority of people that depend on animal production for food security do so through grazing and herding on natural rangelands, and these systems make a significant contribution to global production of meat and milk. The vegetation dynamics of natural forage are highly dependent on climate, and subject to disruption with changes in climate and climate variability. Precipitation heterogeneity has been linked to the ecosystem dynamics of grazing lands through impacts on livestock carrying capacity and grassland degradation potential. Additionally, changes in precipitation variability are linked to the increased incidence of extreme events (e.g. droughts, floods) that negatively impact food production and food security. Here, we use the inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) of precipitation as a metric to assess climate risk on global pastures. Comparisons of global satellite measures of vegetation greenness to climate reveal that the CV of precipitation is negatively related to mean annual NDVI, such that areas with low year-to-year precipitation variability have the highest measures of vegetation greenness, and vice versa. Furthermore, areas with high CV of precipitation support lower livestock densities and produce less meat. A sliding window analysis of changes in CV of precipitation over the last century shows that, overall, precipitation variability is increasing in global pasture areas, although global maps reveal a patchwork of both positive and negative changes. We use this information to identify regions in which changes in the variability of precipitation may already be affecting the ability of grazing systems to support intensified livestock production, and assess the potential impacts of those changes on pasture productivity.

"Structure and dynamics in complex chemical systems: Gaining new insights through recent advances in time-resolved spectroscopies.” ACS Division of Physical Chemistry Symposium presented at the Fall National ACS Meeting in Boston, MA, August 2015

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crawford, Daniel

8-Session Symposium on STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS IN COMPLEX CHEMICAL SYSTEMS: GAINING NEW INSIGHTS THROUGH RECENT ADVANCES IN TIME-RESOLVED SPECTROSCOPIES. The intricacy of most chemical, biochemical, and material processes and their applications are underscored by the complex nature of the environments in which they occur. Substantial challenges for building a global understanding of a heterogeneous system include (1) identifying unique signatures associated with specific structural motifs within the heterogeneous distribution, and (2) resolving the significance of each of multiple time scales involved in both small- and large-scale nuclear reorganization. This symposium focuses on the progress in our understanding of dynamics inmore » complex systems driven by recent innovations in time-resolved spectroscopies and theoretical developments. Such advancement is critical for driving discovery at the molecular level facilitating new applications. Broad areas of interest include: Structural relaxation and the impact of structure on dynamics in liquids, interfaces, biochemical systems, materials, and other heterogeneous environments.« less

Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.

PubMed

Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B

2018-04-01

Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.

Development and application of earth system models.

PubMed

Prinn, Ronald G

2013-02-26

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important "systems" problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981-2000 to 2091-2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether "climate engineering" is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better.

Poisson structure of dynamical systems with three degrees of freedom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gümral, Hasan; Nutku, Yavuz

1993-12-01

It is shown that the Poisson structure of dynamical systems with three degrees of freedom can be defined in terms of an integrable one-form in three dimensions. Advantage is taken of this fact and the theory of foliations is used in discussing the geometrical structure underlying complete and partial integrability. Techniques for finding Poisson structures are presented and applied to various examples such as the Halphen system which has been studied as the two-monopole problem by Atiyah and Hitchin. It is shown that the Halphen system can be formulated in terms of a flat SL(2,R)-valued connection and belongs to a nontrivial Godbillon-Vey class. On the other hand, for the Euler top and a special case of three-species Lotka-Volterra equations which are contained in the Halphen system as limiting cases, this structure degenerates into the form of globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian structures. The globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian case is a linear and the SL(2,R) structure is a quadratic unfolding of an integrable one-form in 3+1 dimensions. It is shown that the existence of a vector field compatible with the flow is a powerful tool in the investigation of Poisson structure and some new techniques for incorporating arbitrary constants into the Poisson one-form are presented herein. This leads to some extensions, analogous to q extensions, of Poisson structure. The Kermack-McKendrick model and some of its generalizations describing the spread of epidemics, as well as the integrable cases of the Lorenz, Lotka-Volterra, May-Leonard, and Maxwell-Bloch systems admit globally integrable bi-Hamiltonian structure.

Dynamics of Solar System Dust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dermott, Stanley F.

2002-01-01

The ongoing aim of the research is to investigate the dynamical and physical evolution of interplanetary dust particles in order to produce a detailed global model of the zodiacal cloud and its constituent components that is capable of predicting thermal fluxes in mid-infrared wave bands to an accuracy of 1% or better; with the additional aim of exploiting this research as a basis for predicting structure in exozodiacal clouds that may be signatures of unseen planets.

Parameter Selection Methods in Inverse Problem Formulation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-03

clinical data and used for prediction and a model for the reaction of the cardiovascular system to an ergometric workload. Key Words: Parameter selection...model for HIV dynamics which has been successfully validated with clinical data and used for prediction and a model for the reaction of the...recently developed in-host model for HIV dynamics which has been successfully validated with clinical data and used for prediction [4, 8]; b) a global

Multiple model self-tuning control for a class of nonlinear systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Miao; Wang, Xin; Wang, Zhenlei

2015-10-01

This study develops a novel nonlinear multiple model self-tuning control method for a class of nonlinear discrete-time systems. An increment system model and a modified robust adaptive law are proposed to expand the application range, thus eliminating the assumption that either the nonlinear term of the nonlinear system or its differential term is global-bounded. The nonlinear self-tuning control method can address the situation wherein the nonlinear system is not subject to a globally uniformly asymptotically stable zero dynamics by incorporating the pole-placement scheme. A novel, nonlinear control structure based on this scheme is presented to improve control precision. Stability and convergence can be confirmed when the proposed multiple model self-tuning control method is applied. Furthermore, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Dynamical properties of water in living cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piazza, Irina; Cupane, Antonio; Barbier, Emmanuel L.; Rome, Claire; Collomb, Nora; Ollivier, Jacques; Gonzalez, Miguel A.; Natali, Francesca

2018-02-01

With the aim of studying the effect of water dynamics on the properties of biological systems, in this paper, we present a quasi-elastic neutron scattering study on three different types of living cells, differing both in their morphological and tumor properties. The measured scattering signal, which essentially originates from hydrogen atoms present in the investigated systems, has been analyzed using a global fitting strategy using an optimized theoretical model that considers various classes of hydrogen atoms and allows disentangling diffusive and rotational motions. The approach has been carefully validated by checking the reliability of the calculation of parameters and their 99% confidence intervals. We demonstrate that quasi-elastic neutron scattering is a suitable experimental technique to characterize the dynamics of intracellular water in the angstrom/picosecond space/time scale and to investigate the effect of water dynamics on cellular biodiversity.

Reconstructing the regulatory circuit of cell fate determination in yeast mating response.

PubMed

Shao, Bin; Yuan, Haiyu; Zhang, Rongfei; Wang, Xuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Ouyang, Qi; Hao, Nan; Luo, Chunxiong

2017-07-01

Massive technological advances enabled high-throughput measurements of proteomic changes in biological processes. However, retrieving biological insights from large-scale protein dynamics data remains a challenging task. Here we used the mating differentiation in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model and developed integrated experimental and computational approaches to analyze the proteomic dynamics during the process of cell fate determination. When exposed to a high dose of mating pheromone, the yeast cell undergoes growth arrest and forms a shmoo-like morphology; however, at intermediate doses, chemotropic elongated growth is initialized. To understand the gene regulatory networks that control this differentiation switch, we employed a high-throughput microfluidic imaging system that allows real-time and simultaneous measurements of cell growth and protein expression. Using kinetic modeling of protein dynamics, we classified the stimulus-dependent changes in protein abundance into two sources: global changes due to physiological alterations and gene-specific changes. A quantitative framework was proposed to decouple gene-specific regulatory modes from the growth-dependent global modulation of protein abundance. Based on the temporal patterns of gene-specific regulation, we established the network architectures underlying distinct cell fates using a reverse engineering method and uncovered the dose-dependent rewiring of gene regulatory network during mating differentiation. Furthermore, our results suggested a potential crosstalk between the pheromone response pathway and the target of rapamycin (TOR)-regulated ribosomal biogenesis pathway, which might underlie a cell differentiation switch in yeast mating response. In summary, our modeling approach addresses the distinct impacts of the global and gene-specific regulation on the control of protein dynamics and provides new insights into the mechanisms of cell fate determination. We anticipate that our integrated experimental and modeling strategies could be widely applicable to other biological systems.

Global Strike 2035: Considerations for Enabling Effective Command and Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-02-16

reach places .1 Broadly grouped under the moniker Global Strike,2 this family-of-systems capability should mature by 2035 leading to the realization of...and] ‘micro-actors with massive impact,’…[combine] with new technology and new or transfigured ways of war, but the old threats also remain and have...as the Joint Time-Sensitive Targets Manager (JTSTM),38 “operators and analysts [could] access the same dynamic common operating picture…to provide

DREAM: An Integrated Space Radiation Nowcast System for Natural and Nuclear Radiation Belts

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-01

requires a model of the global geomagnetic field which is represented by the red module in figure 1. The simplest assumption of a tilted dipole field...is grossly inadequate to describe the distorted, dynamic geomagnetic field. Stretching and compression of the field changes the both the local field... geomagnetic field ranging from static models like [Olsen and Pfitzer, 1974] to global MHD models. We believe the best results can be obtained with a

NASA/MSFC FY91 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leslie, Fred W. (Editor)

1991-01-01

The reports presented at the annual Marshall Research Review of Earth Science and Applications are compiled. The following subject areas are covered: understanding of atmospheric processes in a variety of spatial and temporal scales; measurements of geophysical parameters; measurements on a global scale from space; the Mission to Planet Earth Program (comprised of and Earth Observation System and the scientific strategy to analyze these data); and satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics.

Propagation, cascades, and agreement dynamics in complex communication and social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Qiming

Many modern and important technological, social, information and infrastructure systems can be viewed as complex systems with a large number of interacting components. Models of complex networks and dynamical interactions, as well as their applications are of fundamental interests in many aspects. Here, several stylized models of multiplex propagation and opinion dynamics are investigated on complex and empirical social networks. We first investigate cascade dynamics in threshold-controlled (multiplex) propagation on random geometric networks. We find that such local dynamics can serve as an efficient, robust, and reliable prototypical activation protocol in sensor networks in responding to various alarm scenarios. We also consider the same dynamics on a modified network by adding a few long-range communication links, resulting in a small-world network. We find that such construction can further enhance and optimize the speed of the network's response, while keeping energy consumption at a manageable level. We also investigate a prototypical agent-based model, the Naming Game, on two-dimensional random geometric networks. The Naming Game [A. Baronchelli et al., J. Stat. Mech.: Theory Exp. (2006) P06014.] is a minimal model, employing local communications that captures the emergence of shared communication schemes (languages) in a population of autonomous semiotic agents. Implementing the Naming Games with local broadcasts on random geometric graphs, serves as a model for agreement dynamics in large-scale, autonomously operating wireless sensor networks. Further, it captures essential features of the scaling properties of the agreement process for spatially-embedded autonomous agents. Among the relevant observables capturing the temporal properties of the agreement process, we investigate the cluster-size distribution and the distribution of the agreement times, both exhibiting dynamic scaling. We also present results for the case when a small density of long-range communication links are added on top of the random geometric graph, resulting in a "small-world"-like network and yielding a significantly reduced time to reach global agreement. We construct a finite-size scaling analysis for the agreement times in this case. When applying the model of Naming Game on empirical social networks, this stylized agent-based model captures essential features of agreement dynamics in a network of autonomous agents, corresponding to the development of shared classification schemes in a network of artificial agents or opinion spreading and social dynamics in social networks. Our study focuses on the impact that communities in the underlying social graphs have on the outcome of the agreement process. We find that networks with strong community structure hinder the system from reaching global agreement; the evolution of the Naming Game in these networks maintains clusters of coexisting opinions indefinitely. Further, we investigate agent-based network strategies to facilitate convergence to global consensus.

A Vertically Lagrangian Finite-Volume Dynamical Core for Global Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann

2003-01-01

A finite-volume dynamical core with a terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization is described. The vertically Lagrangian discretization reduces the dimensionality of the physical problem from three to two with the resulting dynamical system closely resembling that of the shallow water dynamical system. The 2D horizontal-to-Lagrangian-surface transport and dynamical processes are then discretized using the genuinely conservative flux-form semi-Lagrangian algorithm. Time marching is split- explicit, with large-time-step for scalar transport, and small fractional time step for the Lagrangian dynamics, which permits the accurate propagation of fast waves. A mass, momentum, and total energy conserving algorithm is developed for mapping the state variables periodically from the floating Lagrangian control-volume to an Eulerian terrain-following coordinate for dealing with physical parameterizations and to prevent severe distortion of the Lagrangian surfaces. Deterministic baroclinic wave growth tests and long-term integrations using the Held-Suarez forcing are presented. Impact of the monotonicity constraint is discussed.

The Global Positioning System: Theory and operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucker, Lester Plunkett

Scope and method of study. The purpose of this study is to document the theory, development, and training needs of the United States Global Positioning System for the United States Air Force. This subject area had very little information and to assess the United States Air Force training needs required an investigation into existing training accomplished on the Global Positioning System. The United States Air Force has only one place to obtain the data at Headquarters Air Education and Training Command. Findings and conclusion. The United States Air Force, at the time of this study, does not have a theory and operations course dealing with the newest technology advancement in world navigation. Although this new technology is being provided on aircraft in the form of new navigation hardware, no official course of study is provided by the United States Air Force to it's pilots and navigators dealing with theory and operation. Based on the latest reports dealing with the Global Positioning System, a course on the Global Positioning System was developed in the Instructional Systems Design format to provide background information and understanding of this new technology. Readers of this study must be aware that the information contained in this study is very dynamic. Technology is advancing so fast in this area that it might make this information obsolete in a short amount of time.

Modeling Feedbacks Between Individual Human Decisions and Hydrology Using Interconnected Physical and Social Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, J.; Lammers, R. B.; Proussevitch, A. A.; Ozik, J.; Altaweel, M.; Collier, N. T.; Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A. D.

2014-12-01

The global hydrological cycle intersects with human decision making at multiple scales, from dams and irrigation works to the taps in individuals' homes. Residential water consumers are commonly encouraged to conserve; these messages are heard against a background of individual values and conceptions about water quality, uses, and availability. The degree to which these values impact the larger-hydrological dynamics, the way that changes in those values have impacts on the hydrological cycle through time, and the feedbacks by which water availability and quality in turn shape those values, are not well explored. To investigate this domain we employ a global-scale water balance model (WBM) coupled with a social-science-grounded agent-based model (ABM). The integration of a hydrological model with an agent-based model allows us to explore driving factors in the dynamics in coupled human-natural systems. From the perspective of the physical hydrologist, the ABM offers a richer means of incorporating the human decisions that drive the hydrological system; from the view of the social scientist, a physically-based hydrological model allows the decisions of the agents to play out against constraints faithful to the real world. We apply the interconnected models to a study of Tucson, Arizona, USA, and its role in the larger Colorado River system. Our core concept is Technology-Induced Environmental Distancing (TIED), which posits that layers of technology can insulate consumers from direct knowledge of a resource. In Tucson, multiple infrastructure and institutional layers have arguably increased the conceptual distance between individuals and their water supply, offering a test case of the TIED framework. Our coupled simulation allows us to show how the larger system transforms a resource with high temporal and spatial variability into a consumer constant, and the effects of this transformation on the regional system. We use this to explore how pricing, messaging, and social dynamics impact demand, how changes in demand affect the regional water system, and under what system challenges the values of the individuals are likely to change. This study is a preamble to modeling multiple regionally connected cities and larger systems with impacts on hydrology at the continental and global scales.

Increased future ice discharge from Antarctica owing to higher snowfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkelmann, Ricarda; Levermann, Anders; Martin, Maria A.; Frieler, Katja

2013-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change is likely to cause continuing global sea-level rise, but some processes within the Earth system may mitigate the magnitude of the projected effect. Regional and global climate models simulate enhanced snowfall over Antarctica, which would provide a direct offset of the future contribution to global sea level rise from cryospheric mass loss and ocean expansion. Uncertainties exist in modelled snowfall, but even larger uncertainties exist in the potential changes of dynamic ice discharge from Antarctica. Here we show that snowfall and discharge are not independent, but that future ice discharge will increase by up to three times as a result of additional snowfall under global warming. Our results, based on an ice-sheet model forced by climate simulations through to the end of 2500, show that the enhanced discharge effect exceeds the effect of surface warming as well as that of basal ice-shelf melting, and is due to the difference in surface elevation change caused by snowfall on grounded versus floating ice. Although different underlying forcings drive ice loss from basal melting versus increased snowfall, similar ice dynamical processes are nonetheless at work in both; therefore results are relatively independent of the specific representation of the transition zone. In an ensemble of simulations designed to capture ice-physics uncertainty, the additional dynamic ice loss along the coastline compensates between 30 and 65 per cent of the ice gain due to enhanced snowfall over the entire continent. This results in a dynamic ice loss of up to 1.25 metres in the year 2500 for the strongest warming scenario.

Adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control of nonlinear systems with input saturation and time-varying output constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edalati, L.; Khaki Sedigh, A.; Aliyari Shooredeli, M.; Moarefianpour, A.

2018-02-01

This paper deals with the design of adaptive fuzzy dynamic surface control for uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems with asymmetric time-varying output constraints in the presence of input saturation. To approximate the unknown nonlinear functions and overcome the problem of explosion of complexity, a Fuzzy logic system is combined with the dynamic surface control in the backstepping design technique. To ensure the output constraints satisfaction, an asymmetric time-varying Barrier Lyapunov Function (BLF) is used. Moreover, by applying the minimal learning parameter technique, the number of the online parameters update for each subsystem is reduced to 2. Hence, the semi-globally uniformly ultimately boundedness (SGUUB) of all the closed-loop signals with appropriate tracking error convergence is guaranteed. The effectiveness of the proposed control is demonstrated by two simulation examples.

Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. II. Local evolution moves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höhn, Philipp A.

2014-10-01

Several quantum gravity approaches and field theory on an evolving lattice involve a discretization changing dynamics generated by evolution moves. Local evolution moves in variational discrete systems (1) are a generalization of the Pachner evolution moves of simplicial gravity models, (2) update only a small subset of the dynamical data, (3) change the number of kinematical and physical degrees of freedom, and (4) generate a dynamical (or canonical) coarse graining or refining of the underlying discretization. To systematically explore such local moves and their implications in the quantum theory, this article suitably expands the quantum formalism for global evolution moves, constructed in Paper I [P. A. Höhn, "Quantization of systems with temporally varying discretization. I. Evolving Hilbert spaces," J. Math. Phys. 55, 083508 (2014); e-print arXiv:1401.6062 [gr-qc

Infection Paradox: High Abundance but Low Impact of Freshwater Benthic Viruses

PubMed Central

Filippini, Manuela; Buesing, Nanna; Bettarel, Yvan; Sime-Ngando, Télesphore; Gessner, Mark O.

2006-01-01

The discovery of an abundant and diverse virus community in oceans and lakes has profoundly reshaped ideas about global carbon and nutrient fluxes, food web dynamics, and maintenance of microbial biodiversity. These roles are exerted through massive viral impact on the population dynamics of heterotrophic bacterioplankton and primary producers. We took advantage of a shallow wetland system with contrasting microhabitats in close proximity to demonstrate that in marked contrast to pelagic systems, viral infection, determined directly by transmission electron microscopy, and consequently mortality of prokaryotes were surprisingly low in benthic habitats in all seasons. This was true even though free viruses were abundant throughout the year and bacterial infection and mortality rates were high in surrounding water. The habitats in which we found this pattern include sediment, decomposing plant litter, and biofilms on aquatic vegetation. Overall, we detected viruses in only 4 of a total of ∼15,000 bacterial cells inspected in these three habitats; for comparison, nearly 300 of ∼5,000 cells suspended in the water column were infected. The strikingly low incidence of impact of phages in the benthos may have important implications, since a major portion of microbial biodiversity and global carbon and nutrient turnover are associated with surfaces. Therefore, if failure to infect benthic bacteria is a widespread phenomenon, then the global role of viruses in controlling microbial diversity, food web dynamics, and biogeochemical cycles would be greatly diminished compared to predictions based on data from planktonic environments. PMID:16820485

Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems, to global MHD to MHD-PIC and discuss the role of state-of-the-art models in forecasting space weather.

Soil Moisture Dynamics Under Corn, Soybean, and Perennial Kura Clover

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rising global food and energy consumption call for increased agricultural production, whereas rising concerns for environmental quality call for farming systems with more favorable environmental impacts. Improved understanding and management of plant-soil water interactions are central to meeting th...

An Automated Chamber Network for Evaluation the Long-term Response and Feedback of Soil Carbon Dynamics to Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, N.; Kim, S.; Shimoyama, K.; Kim, Y.; Hirano, T.; Takagi, K.; Fujinuma, Y.; Mukai, H.; Takahashi, Y.; Kakubari, Y.; Wang, Q.; Nakane, K.

2007-12-01

Regional networks for measuring carbon sequestration or loss by terrestrial ecosystems on a year round basis have been in operation since the mid-1990s. However, continuous measurements of soil CO2 efflux, the largest component of ecosystem respiration have only been reported over similar time scales at a few of the sites. We have developed a multichannel automated chamber system that can be used for continuous measuring soil CO2 efflux. The system equips 8 to 24 large automated chambers (90*90*50 cm, L*W*H). Since 1997, we have installed the chamber systems in the tundra in west Siberia, boreal forest in Alaska, cool- temperate and temperate forests in Japan, Korea and China, tropical seasonal forest in Thailand, and tropical rainforest in Malaysia. Annual soil CO2 effluxes were estimated to be about 5-6 tC ha-1 y-1 in the boreal and cool-temperate forests, 10 tC ha-1 y-1 in the temperate forests, and 30 tC ha-1 y-1 in the tropical rainforests. Efflux showed significant seasonality in the boreal and temperate forest that corresponding with the seasonal soil temperature. However, the wavelike efflux rates in the tropical forests were correlated with the seasonality of soil moisture. From 2007, a big project that funded by Ministry of the Environment of Japan (MOE) has launched to evaluate the response and feedback of soil carbon dynamics of Japanese forest ecosystems to global change. We are installing another 6 chamber systems at the six of Japanese typical forests to conduct the soil warming experiments. For scaling-up the chamber experiments and understanding the mechanisms of soil organic matter (SOM) dynamics to global change, soil samples from about 100 forest ecosystems will be incubated for modeling development. Furthermore, the environmental (temperature and CO2) controlled large open-top chambers have been employed to investigate the balance of SOM (the input from litter falls and loss due to the decomposition) of forest ecosystems with global change.

Geography of Global Forest Carbon Stocks & Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saatchi, S. S.; Yu, Y.; Xu, L.; Yang, Y.; Fore, A.; Ganguly, S.; Nemani, R. R.; Zhang, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Sun, G.; Woodall, C. W.; Naesset, E.; Seibt, U. H.

2014-12-01

Spatially explicit distribution of carbon stocks and dynamics in global forests can greatly reduce the uncertainty in the terrestrial portion of the global carbon cycle by improving estimates of emissions and uptakes from land use activities, and help with green house gas inventory at regional and national scales. Here, we produce the first global distribution of carbon stocks in living woody biomass at ~ 100 m (1-ha) resolution for circa 2005 from a combination of satellite observations and ground inventory data. The total carbon stored in live woody biomass is estimated to be 337 PgC with 258 PgC in aboveground and 79 PgC in roots, and partitioned globally in boreal (20%), tropical evergreen (50%), temperate (12%), and woodland savanna and shrublands (15%). We use a combination of satellite observations of tree height, remote sensing data on deforestation and degradation to quantify the dynamics of these forests at the biome level globally and provide geographical distribution of carbon storage dynamics in terms sinks and sources globally.

Effects of Telecoupling on Global Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viña, A.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the ever increasing trend in telecoupling processes, such as international trade, all countries around the world are becoming more interdependent. However, the effects of this growing interdependence on vegetation (e.g., shifts in the geographic extent and distribution) remain unknown even though vegetation dynamics are crucially important for food production, carbon sequestration, provision of other ecosystem services, and biodiversity conservation. In this study we evaluate the effects of international trade on the spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation at national and global scales, using vegetation index imagery collected over more than three decades by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor series together with concurrent national and international data on international trade (and its associated movement of people, goods, services and information). The spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation are obtained using the scale of fluctuation technique, which is based on the decomposition of the AVHRR image time series to obtain information on its spatial dependence structure over time. Similar to the correlation length, the scale of fluctuation corresponds to the range over which fluctuations in the vegetation index are spatially correlated. Results indicate that global vegetation has changed drastically over the last three decades. These changes are not uniform across space, with hotspots in active trading countries. This study not only has direct implications for understanding global vegetation dynamics, but also sheds important insights on the complexity of human-nature interactions across telecoupled systems.

Optimisation of assembly scheduling in VCIM systems using genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dao, Son Duy; Abhary, Kazem; Marian, Romeo

2017-09-01

Assembly plays an important role in any production system as it constitutes a significant portion of the lead time and cost of a product. Virtual computer-integrated manufacturing (VCIM) system is a modern production system being conceptually developed to extend the application of traditional computer-integrated manufacturing (CIM) system to global level. Assembly scheduling in VCIM systems is quite different from one in traditional production systems because of the difference in the working principles of the two systems. In this article, the assembly scheduling problem in VCIM systems is modeled and then an integrated approach based on genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to search for a global optimised solution to the problem. Because of dynamic nature of the scheduling problem, a novel GA with unique chromosome representation and modified genetic operations is developed herein. Robustness of the proposed approach is verified by a numerical example.

Thermomechanical Properties and Glass Dynamics of Polymer-Tethered Colloidal Particles and Films

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Polymer-tethered colloidal particles (aka “particle brush materials”) have attracted interest as a platform for innovative material technologies and as a model system to elucidate glass formation in complex structured media. In this contribution, Brillouin light scattering is used to sequentially evaluate the role of brush architecture on the dynamical properties of brush particles in both the individual and assembled (film) state. In the former state, the analysis reveals that brush–brush interactions as well as global chain relaxation sensitively depend on grafting density; i.e., more polymer-like behavior is observed in sparse brush systems. This is interpreted to be a consequence of more extensive chain entanglement. In contrast, the local relaxation of films does not depend on grafting density. The results highlight that relaxation processes in particle brush-based materials span a wider range of time and length scales as compared to linear chain polymers. Differentiation between relaxation on local and global scale is necessary to reveal the influence of molecular structure and connectivity on the aging behavior of these complex systems. PMID:29755139

Thermomechanical Properties and Glass Dynamics of Polymer-Tethered Colloidal Particles and Films.

PubMed

Cang, Yu; Reuss, Anna N; Lee, Jaejun; Yan, Jiajun; Zhang, Jianan; Alonso-Redondo, Elena; Sainidou, Rebecca; Rembert, Pascal; Matyjaszewski, Krzysztof; Bockstaller, Michael R; Fytas, George

2017-11-14

Polymer-tethered colloidal particles (aka "particle brush materials") have attracted interest as a platform for innovative material technologies and as a model system to elucidate glass formation in complex structured media. In this contribution, Brillouin light scattering is used to sequentially evaluate the role of brush architecture on the dynamical properties of brush particles in both the individual and assembled (film) state. In the former state, the analysis reveals that brush-brush interactions as well as global chain relaxation sensitively depend on grafting density; i.e., more polymer-like behavior is observed in sparse brush systems. This is interpreted to be a consequence of more extensive chain entanglement. In contrast, the local relaxation of films does not depend on grafting density. The results highlight that relaxation processes in particle brush-based materials span a wider range of time and length scales as compared to linear chain polymers. Differentiation between relaxation on local and global scale is necessary to reveal the influence of molecular structure and connectivity on the aging behavior of these complex systems.

Fully adaptive propagation of the quantum-classical Liouville equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horenko, Illia; Weiser, Martin; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schütte, Christof

2004-05-01

In mixed quantum-classical molecular dynamics few but important degrees of freedom of a dynamical system are modeled quantum-mechanically while the remaining ones are treated within the classical approximation. Rothe methods established in the theory of partial differential equations are used to control both temporal and spatial discretization errors on grounds of a global tolerance criterion. The TRAIL (trapezoidal rule for adaptive integration of Liouville dynamics) scheme [I. Horenko and M. Weiser, J. Comput. Chem. 24, 1921 (2003)] has been extended to account for nonadiabatic effects in molecular dynamics described by the quantum-classical Liouville equation. In the context of particle methods, the quality of the spatial approximation of the phase-space distributions is maximized while the numerical condition of the least-squares problem for the parameters of particles is minimized. The resulting dynamical scheme is based on a simultaneous propagation of moving particles (Gaussian and Dirac deltalike trajectories) in phase space employing a fully adaptive strategy to upgrade Dirac to Gaussian particles and, vice versa, downgrading Gaussians to Dirac-type trajectories. This allows for the combination of Monte-Carlo-based strategies for the sampling of densities and coherences in multidimensional problems with deterministic treatment of nonadiabatic effects. Numerical examples demonstrate the application of the method to spin-boson systems in different dimensionality. Nonadiabatic effects occurring at conical intersections are treated in the diabatic representation. By decreasing the global tolerance, the numerical solution obtained from the TRAIL scheme are shown to converge towards exact results.

Fully adaptive propagation of the quantum-classical Liouville equation.

PubMed

Horenko, Illia; Weiser, Martin; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schütte, Christof

2004-05-15

In mixed quantum-classical molecular dynamics few but important degrees of freedom of a dynamical system are modeled quantum-mechanically while the remaining ones are treated within the classical approximation. Rothe methods established in the theory of partial differential equations are used to control both temporal and spatial discretization errors on grounds of a global tolerance criterion. The TRAIL (trapezoidal rule for adaptive integration of Liouville dynamics) scheme [I. Horenko and M. Weiser, J. Comput. Chem. 24, 1921 (2003)] has been extended to account for nonadiabatic effects in molecular dynamics described by the quantum-classical Liouville equation. In the context of particle methods, the quality of the spatial approximation of the phase-space distributions is maximized while the numerical condition of the least-squares problem for the parameters of particles is minimized. The resulting dynamical scheme is based on a simultaneous propagation of moving particles (Gaussian and Dirac deltalike trajectories) in phase space employing a fully adaptive strategy to upgrade Dirac to Gaussian particles and, vice versa, downgrading Gaussians to Dirac-type trajectories. This allows for the combination of Monte-Carlo-based strategies for the sampling of densities and coherences in multidimensional problems with deterministic treatment of nonadiabatic effects. Numerical examples demonstrate the application of the method to spin-boson systems in different dimensionality. Nonadiabatic effects occurring at conical intersections are treated in the diabatic representation. By decreasing the global tolerance, the numerical solution obtained from the TRAIL scheme are shown to converge towards exact results.

Regime shifts and ecological catastrophes in a model of plankton-oxygen dynamics under the climate change.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Sekerci, Yadigar; Venturino, Ezio

2017-07-07

It is estimated that more than a half of the total atmospheric oxygen is produced in the oceans due to the photosynthetic activity of phytoplankton. Any significant decrease in the net oxygen production by phytoplankton is therefore likely to result in the depletion of atmospheric oxygen and in a global mass mortality of animals and humans. In its turn, the rate of oxygen production is known to depend on water temperature and hence can be affected by the global warming. We address this problem theoretically by considering a model of a coupled plankton-oxygen dynamics where the rate of oxygen production slowly changes with time to account for the ocean warming. We show that, when the temperature rises sufficiently high, a regime shift happens: the sustainable oxygen production becomes impossible and the system's dynamics leads to fast oxygen depletion and plankton extinction. We also consider a scenario when, after a certain period of increase, the temperature is set on a new higher yet apparently safe value, i.e. before the oxygen depletion disaster happens. We show that in this case the system dynamics may exhibit a long-term quasi-sustainable dynamics that can still result in an ecological disaster (oxygen depletion and mass extinctions) but only after a considerable period of time. Finally, we discuss the early warning signals of the approaching regime shift resulting in the disaster. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Engineering a Sustainable Blue Planet: Exploring the dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2004-12-01

Man's hand as a geomorphic agent is now endemic. The dynamics of water and other material cycles is now significantly impacted at all scales: from hillsides to watersheds to the earth, and from urban flash flood events to mean long term flow. Locally and regionally, climatic exigencies serve to spur either ruin (in the poorest societies) or a flurry of human infrastructure development. Thus, at the local scale, geomorphology depends on man's struggle for survival, and the associated interaction with nature's vagaries. Of course, we now recognize that man induced changes in land surface attributes (related to agriculture or deforestation) and in atmospheric composition translate into relatively unforeseeable climate changes, i.e., nature at a planetary scale has a different face. Despite the recognition of these interacting factors, a conceptual model that treats the dynamics of man and nature as separable and separate, dominates the earth sciences. We study global climate change and its impacts as sequential outcomes of a carbon emission scenario, and not as endogenous processes of the earth-man system with mutual feedbacks. The definition of a man-nature dynamical system is feasible as an abstraction. I explore such a definition through examples, one at the global scale, and one at a local scale. These examples are formulated in the context of meeting the challenge of poverty reduction through the provision of water for health and food, while considering vulnerability to a dynamic climate and to changes in the environment.

Spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of global scale climate-groundwater interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuthbert, M. O.; Gleeson, T. P.; Moosdorf, N.; Schneider, A. C.; Hartmann, J.; Befus, K. M.; Lehner, B.

2017-12-01

The interactions between groundwater and climate are important to resolve in both space and time as they influence mass and energy transfers at Earth's land surface. Despite the significance of these processes, little is known about the spatio-temporal distribution of such interactions globally, and many large-scale climate, hydrological and land surface models oversimplify groundwater or exclude it completely. In this study we bring together diverse global geomatic data sets to map spatial patterns in the sensitivity and degree of connectedness between the water table and the land surface, and use the output from a global groundwater model to assess the locations where the lateral import or export of groundwater is significant. We also quantify the groundwater response time, the characteristic time for groundwater systems to respond to a change in boundary conditions, and map its distribution globally to assess the likely dynamics of groundwater's interaction with climate. We find that more than half of the global land surface significantly exports or imports groundwater laterally. Nearly 40% of Earth's landmass has water tables that are strongly coupled to topography with water tables shallow enough to enable a bi-directional exchange of moisture with the climate system. However, only a small proportion (around 12%) of such regions have groundwater response times of 100 years or less and have groundwater fluxes that would significantly respond to rapid environmental changes over this timescale. We last explore fundamental relationships between aridity, groundwater response times and groundwater turnover times. Our results have wide ranging implications for understanding and modelling changes in Earth's water and energy balance and for informing robust future water management and security decisions.

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States Climate Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 x 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmentalmore » Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation’s performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.« less

Self-organization in a diversity induced thermodynamics.

PubMed

Scirè, Alessandro; Annovazzi-Lodi, Valerio

2017-01-01

In this work we show how global self-organized patterns can come out of a disordered ensemble of point oscillators, as a result of a deterministic, and not of a random, cooperative process. The resulting system dynamics has many characteristics of classical thermodynamics. To this end, a modified Kuramoto model is introduced, by including Euclidean degrees of freedom and particle polarity. The standard deviation of the frequency distribution is the disorder parameter, diversity, acting as temperature, which is both a source of motion and of disorder. For zero and low diversity, robust static phase-synchronized patterns (crystals) appear, and the problem reverts to a generic dissipative many-body problem. From small to moderate diversity crystals display vibrations followed by structure disintegration in a competition of smaller dynamic patterns, internally synchronized, each of which is capable to manage its internal diversity. In this process a huge variety of self-organized dynamic shapes is formed. Such patterns can be seen again as (more complex) oscillators, where the same description can be applied in turn, renormalizing the problem to a bigger scale, opening the possibility of pattern evolution. The interaction functions are kept local because our idea is to build a system able to produce global patterns when its constituents only interact at the bond scale. By further increasing the oscillator diversity, the dynamics becomes erratic, dynamic patterns show short lifetime, and finally disappear for high diversity. Results are neither qualitatively dependent on the specific choice of the interaction functions nor on the shape of the probability function assumed for the frequencies. The system shows a phase transition and a critical behaviour for a specific value of diversity.

Assessing global climate-terrestrial vegetation feedbacks on carbon and nitrogen cycling in the earth system model EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wårlind, David; Miller, Paul; Nieradzik, Lars; Söderberg, Fredrik; Anthoni, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Smith, Ben

2017-04-01

There has been great progress in developing an improved European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) in preparation for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and the next Assessment Report of the IPCC. The new model version has been complemented with ocean biogeochemistry, atmospheric composition (aerosols and chemistry) and dynamic land vegetation components, and has been configured to use the recommended CMIP6 forcing data sets. These new components will give us fresh insights into climate change. This study focuses on the terrestrial biosphere component Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS) that simulates vegetation dynamics and compound exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere in EC-Earth. LPJ-GUESS allows for vegetation to dynamically evolve, depending on climate input, and in return provides the climate system and land surface scheme with vegetation-dependent fields such as vegetation types and leaf area index. We present the results of a study to examine the feedbacks between the dynamic terrestrial vegetation and the climate and their impact on the terrestrial ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycles. Our results are based on a set of global, atmosphere-only historical simulations (1870 to 2014) with and without feedback between climate and vegetation and including or ignoring the effect of nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. These simulations show to what extent the addition degree of freedom in EC-Earth, introduced with the coupling of interactive dynamic vegetation to the atmosphere, has on terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling, and represent contributions to CMIP6 (C4MIP and LUMIP) and the EU Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO.

Understanding global health and development partnerships: Perspectives from African and global health system professionals.

PubMed

Barnes, Amy; Brown, Garrett W; Harman, Sophie

2016-06-01

Partnership is a key idea in current debates about global health and development assistance, yet little is known about what partnership means to those who are responsible for operationalising it or how it is experienced in practice. This is particularly the case in the context of African health systems. This paper explores how health professionals working in global health hubs and the health systems of South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia understand and experience partnership. Drawing on semi-structured interviews with 101 professionals based in each country, Washington DC and Geneva between October 2012 and June 2013, the paper makes four key arguments. First, partnership has a legitimating function in global health policy processes for international development institutions, government agencies and civil society organisations alike. Second, the practice of partnership generates idiosyncratic and complicated relationships that health professionals have to manage and navigate, often informally. Third, partnership is shaped by historical legacies, critical events, and independent consultants. Fourth, despite being an accepted part of global health policy, there is little shared understanding of what good partnership is meant to include or resemble in practice. Knowing more about the specific socio-cultural and political dynamics of partnership in different health system contexts is critical to equip health professionals with the skills to build the informal relations that are essential to effective partnership engagement. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emergent dynamics of the climate-economy system in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Kellie-Smith, Owen; Cox, Peter M

2011-03-13

Global CO(2) emissions are understood to be the largest contributor to anthropogenic climate change, and have, to date, been highly correlated with economic output. However, there is likely to be a negative feedback between climate change and human wealth: economic growth is typically associated with an increase in CO(2) emissions and global warming, but the resulting climate change may lead to damages that suppress economic growth. This climate-economy feedback is assumed to be weak in standard climate change assessments. When the feedback is incorporated in a transparently simple model it reveals possible emergent behaviour in the coupled climate-economy system. Formulae are derived for the critical rates of growth of global CO(2) emissions that cause damped or long-term boom-bust oscillations in human wealth, thereby preventing a soft landing of the climate-economy system. On the basis of this model, historical rates of economic growth and decarbonization appear to put the climate-economy system in a potentially damaging oscillatory regime.

Hidden attractors in dynamical models of phase-locked loop circuits: Limitations of simulation in MATLAB and SPICE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuznetsov, N. V.; Leonov, G. A.; Yuldashev, M. V.; Yuldashev, R. V.

2017-10-01

During recent years it has been shown that hidden oscillations, whose basin of attraction does not overlap with small neighborhoods of equilibria, may significantly complicate simulation of dynamical models, lead to unreliable results and wrong conclusions, and cause serious damage in drilling systems, aircrafts control systems, electromechanical systems, and other applications. This article provides a survey of various phase-locked loop based circuits (used in satellite navigation systems, optical, and digital communication), where such difficulties take place in MATLAB and SPICE. Considered examples can be used for testing other phase-locked loop based circuits and simulation tools, and motivate the development and application of rigorous analytical methods for the global analysis of phase-locked loop based circuits.

Navier-Stokes-Voigt Equations with Memory in 3D Lacking Instantaneous Kinematic Viscosity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Plinio, Francesco; Giorgini, Andrea; Pata, Vittorino; Temam, Roger

2018-04-01

We consider a Navier-Stokes-Voigt fluid model where the instantaneous kinematic viscosity has been completely replaced by a memory term incorporating hereditary effects, in presence of Ekman damping. Unlike the classical Navier-Stokes-Voigt system, the energy balance involves the spatial gradient of the past history of the velocity rather than providing an instantaneous control on the high modes. In spite of this difficulty, we show that our system is dissipative in the dynamical systems sense and even possesses regular global and exponential attractors of finite fractal dimension. Such features of asymptotic well-posedness in absence of instantaneous high modes dissipation appear to be unique within the realm of dynamical systems arising from fluid models.

Globalization and economic growth: empirical evidence on the role of complementarities.

PubMed

Samimi, Parisa; Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh

2014-01-01

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country's level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms.

Globalization and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Complementarities

PubMed Central

Samimi, Parisa; Jenatabadi, Hashem Salarzadeh

2014-01-01

This study was carried out to investigate the effect of economic globalization on economic growth in OIC countries. Furthermore, the study examined the effect of complementary policies on the growth effect of globalization. It also investigated whether the growth effect of globalization depends on the income level of countries. Utilizing the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator within the framework of a dynamic panel data approach, we provide evidence which suggests that economic globalization has statistically significant impact on economic growth in OIC countries. The results indicate that this positive effect is increased in the countries with better-educated workers and well-developed financial systems. Our finding shows that the effect of economic globalization also depends on the country’s level of income. High and middle-income countries benefit from globalization whereas low-income countries do not gain from it. In fact, the countries should receive the appropriate income level to be benefited from globalization. Economic globalization not only directly promotes growth but also indirectly does so via complementary reforms. PMID:24721896

Deconstructing the core dynamics from a complex time-lagged regulatory biological circuit.

PubMed

Eriksson, O; Brinne, B; Zhou, Y; Björkegren, J; Tegnér, J

2009-03-01

Complex regulatory dynamics is ubiquitous in molecular networks composed of genes and proteins. Recent progress in computational biology and its application to molecular data generate a growing number of complex networks. Yet, it has been difficult to understand the governing principles of these networks beyond graphical analysis or extensive numerical simulations. Here the authors exploit several simplifying biological circumstances which thereby enable to directly detect the underlying dynamical regularities driving periodic oscillations in a dynamical nonlinear computational model of a protein-protein network. System analysis is performed using the cell cycle, a mathematically well-described complex regulatory circuit driven by external signals. By introducing an explicit time delay and using a 'tearing-and-zooming' approach the authors reduce the system to a piecewise linear system with two variables that capture the dynamics of this complex network. A key step in the analysis is the identification of functional subsystems by identifying the relations between state-variables within the model. These functional subsystems are referred to as dynamical modules operating as sensitive switches in the original complex model. By using reduced mathematical representations of the subsystems the authors derive explicit conditions on how the cell cycle dynamics depends on system parameters, and can, for the first time, analyse and prove global conditions for system stability. The approach which includes utilising biological simplifying conditions, identification of dynamical modules and mathematical reduction of the model complexity may be applicable to other well-characterised biological regulatory circuits. [Includes supplementary material].

Quantification of resilience to water scarcity, a dynamic measure in time and space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonovic, S. P.; Arunkumar, R.

2016-05-01

There are practical links between water resources management, climate change adaptation and sustainable development leading to reduction of water scarcity risk and re-enforcing resilience as a new development paradigm. Water scarcity, due to the global change (population growth, land use change and climate change), is of serious concern since it can cause loss of human lives and serious damage to the economy of a region. Unfortunately, in many regions of the world, water scarcity is, and will be unavoidable in the near future. As the scarcity is increasing, at the same time it erodes resilience, therefore global change has a magnifying effect on water scarcity risk. In the past, standard water resources management planning considered arrangements for prevention, mitigation, preparedness and recovery, as well as response. However, over the last ten years substantial progress has been made in establishing the role of resilience in sustainable development. Dynamic resilience is considered as a novel measure that provides for better understanding of temporal and spatial dynamics of water scarcity. In this context, a water scarcity is seen as a disturbance in a complex physical-socio-economic system. Resilience is commonly used as a measure to assess the ability of a system to respond and recover from a failure. However, the time independent static resilience without consideration of variability in space does not provide sufficient insight into system's ability to respond and recover from the failure state and was mostly used as a damage avoidance measure. This paper provides an original systems framework for quantification of resilience. The framework is based on the definition of resilience as the ability of physical and socio-economic systems to absorb disturbance while still being able to continue functioning. The disturbance depends on spatial and temporal perspectives and direct interaction between impacts of disturbance (social, health, economic, and other) and adaptive capacity of the system to absorb disturbance. Utility of the dynamic resilience is demonstrated through a single-purpose reservoir operation subject to different failure (water scarcity) scenarios. The reservoir operation is simulated using the system dynamics (SD) feedback-based object-oriented simulation approach.

Assessing Resistance to Change during Shifting from Legacy to Open Web-Based Systems in the Air Transport Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brewer, Denise

2012-01-01

The air transport industry (ATI) is a dynamic, communal, international, and intercultural environment in which the daily operations of airlines, airports, and service providers are dependent on information technology (IT). Many of the IT legacy systems are more than 30 years old, and current regulations and the globally distributed workplace have…

A Disjointed Multi-Campus System: The Neo-Liberal Expansion and Fragmentation of Mozambican Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Langa, Patrício

2017-01-01

This paper tries to accomplish two tasks. First, it uses a critical review of the concept of differentiation to shed light on the expansion of the Mozambican higher education system, a consequence of the global neoliberal dynamics of higher education. Second, the neoliberal framework is applied to account for the development of multi-campus…

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

Adaptive Fuzzy Control for Nonstrict Feedback Systems With Unmodeled Dynamics and Fuzzy Dead Zone via Output Feedback.

PubMed

Wang, Lijie; Li, Hongyi; Zhou, Qi; Lu, Renquan

2017-09-01

This paper investigates the problem of observer-based adaptive fuzzy control for a category of nonstrict feedback systems subject to both unmodeled dynamics and fuzzy dead zone. Through constructing a fuzzy state observer and introducing a center of gravity method, unmeasurable states are estimated and the fuzzy dead zone is defuzzified, respectively. By employing fuzzy logic systems to identify the unknown functions. And combining small-gain approach with adaptive backstepping control technique, a novel adaptive fuzzy output feedback control strategy is developed, which ensures that all signals involved are semi-globally uniformly bounded. Simulation results are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented method.

Simulated Annealing-based Optimal Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) Controller Design: A Case Study on Nonlinear Quadcopter Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemirsky, Kristofer Kevin

In this thesis, the history and evolution of rotor aircraft with simulated annealing-based PID application were reviewed and quadcopter dynamics are presented. The dynamics of a quadcopter were then modeled, analyzed, and linearized. A cascaded loop architecture with PID controllers was used to stabilize the plant dynamics, which was improved upon through the application of simulated annealing (SA). A Simulink model was developed to test the controllers and verify the functionality of the proposed control system design. In addition, the data that the Simulink model provided were compared with flight data to present the validity of derived dynamics as a proper mathematical model representing the true dynamics of the quadcopter system. Then, the SA-based global optimization procedure was applied to obtain optimized PID parameters. It was observed that the tuned gains through the SA algorithm produced a better performing PID controller than the original manually tuned one. Next, we investigated the uncertain dynamics of the quadcopter setup. After adding uncertainty to the gyroscopic effects associated with pitch-and-roll rate dynamics, the controllers were shown to be robust against the added uncertainty. A discussion follows to summarize SA-based algorithm PID controller design and performance outcomes. Lastly, future work on SA application on multi-input-multi-output (MIMO) systems is briefly discussed.

Vector Observation-Aided/Attitude-Rate Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oshman, Yaakov; Markley, F. Landis

1997-01-01

A sequential filtering algorithm is presented for attitude and attitude-rate estimation from Global Positioning System (GPS) differential carrier phase measurements. A third-order, minimal-parameter method for solving the attitude matrix kinematic equation is used to parameterize the filter's state, which renders the resulting estimator computationally efficient. Borrowing from tracking theory concepts, the angular acceleration is modeled as an exponentially autocorrelated stochastic process, thus avoiding the use of the uncertain spacecraft dynamic model. The new formulation facilitates the use of aiding vector observations in a unified filtering algorithm, which can enhance the method's robustness and accuracy. Numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performance of the method.

Economic networks: the new challenges.

PubMed

Schweitzer, Frank; Fagiolo, Giorgio; Sornette, Didier; Vega-Redondo, Fernando; Vespignani, Alessandro; White, Douglas R

2009-07-24

The current economic crisis illustrates a critical need for new and fundamental understanding of the structure and dynamics of economic networks. Economic systems are increasingly built on interdependencies, implemented through trans-national credit and investment networks, trade relations, or supply chains that have proven difficult to predict and control. We need, therefore, an approach that stresses the systemic complexity of economic networks and that can be used to revise and extend established paradigms in economic theory. This will facilitate the design of policies that reduce conflicts between individual interests and global efficiency, as well as reduce the risk of global failure by making economic networks more robust.

Estimated benefits of connected vehicle applications : dynamic mobility applications, AERIS, V2I safety, and road weather management applications.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

Connected vehicles have the potential to transform travel as we know it by combining leading edge technologies advanced wireless communications, on-board computer processing, advanced vehicle-sensors, Global Positioning System (GPS) navigation, sm...

Crop Management to Cope with Global Change: A Systems Perspective Aided by Information Technologies

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Optimizing crop management must consider the dynamic interaction of abiotic and biotic factors within the context of economic, environmental, sociological, and policy constraints. A wide array of information technologies exists to assist producers, consultants, scientists, agribusiness, action agenc...

A globally calibrated scheme for generating daily meteorology from monthly statistics: Global-WGEN (GWGEN) v1.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sommer, Philipp S.; Kaplan, Jed O.

2017-10-01

While a wide range of Earth system processes occur at daily and even subdaily timescales, many global vegetation and other terrestrial dynamics models historically used monthly meteorological forcing both to reduce computational demand and because global datasets were lacking. Recently, dynamic land surface modeling has moved towards resolving daily and subdaily processes, and global datasets containing daily and subdaily meteorology have become available. These meteorological datasets, however, cover only the instrumental era of the last approximately 120 years at best, are subject to considerable uncertainty, and represent extremely large data files with associated computational costs of data input/output and file transfer. For periods before the recent past or in the future, global meteorological forcing can be provided by climate model output, but the quality of these data at high temporal resolution is low, particularly for daily precipitation frequency and amount. Here, we present GWGEN, a globally applicable statistical weather generator for the temporal downscaling of monthly climatology to daily meteorology. Our weather generator is parameterized using a global meteorological database and simulates daily values of five common variables: minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and wind speed. GWGEN is lightweight, modular, and requires a minimal set of monthly mean variables as input. The weather generator may be used in a range of applications, for example, in global vegetation, crop, soil erosion, or hydrological models. While GWGEN does not currently perform spatially autocorrelated multi-point downscaling of daily weather, this additional functionality could be implemented in future versions.

A Long-Term Mathematical Model for Mining Industries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Achdou, Yves, E-mail: achdou@ljll.univ-paris-diderot.fr; Giraud, Pierre-Noel; Lasry, Jean-Michel

A parcimonious long term model is proposed for a mining industry. Knowing the dynamics of the global reserve, the strategy of each production unit consists of an optimal control problem with two controls, first the flux invested into prospection and the building of new extraction facilities, second the production rate. In turn, the dynamics of the global reserve depends on the individual strategies of the producers, so the models leads to an equilibrium, which is described by low dimensional systems of partial differential equations. The dimensionality depends on the number of technologies that a mining producer can choose. In somemore » cases, the systems may be reduced to a Hamilton–Jacobi equation which is degenerate at the boundary and whose right hand side may blow up at the boundary. A mathematical analysis is supplied. Then numerical simulations for models with one or two technologies are described. In particular, a numerical calibration of the model in order to fit the historical data is carried out.« less

Robustness analysis of uncertain dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays.

PubMed

Senan, Sibel

2015-10-01

This paper studies the problem of global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of dynamical neural networks with multiple time delays with respect to the class of slope-bounded activation functions and in the presence of the uncertainties of system parameters of the considered neural network model. By using an appropriate Lyapunov functional and exploiting the properties of the homeomorphism mapping theorem, we derive a new sufficient condition for the existence, uniqueness and global robust asymptotic stability of the equilibrium point for the class of neural networks with multiple time delays. The obtained stability condition basically relies on testing some relationships imposed on the interconnection matrices of the neural system, which can be easily verified by using some certain properties of matrices. An instructive numerical example is also given to illustrate the applicability of our result and show the advantages of this new condition over the previously reported corresponding results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Visualizing global properties of a molecular dynamics trajectory.

PubMed

Zhou, Hao; Li, Shangyang; Makowski, Lee

2016-01-01

Molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories are very large data sets that contain substantial information about the dynamic behavior of a protein. Condensing these data into a form that can provide intuitively useful understanding of the molecular behavior during the trajectory is a substantial challenge that has received relatively little attention. Here, we introduce the sigma-r plot, a plot of the standard deviation of intermolecular distances as a function of that distance. This representation of global dynamics contains within a single, one-dimensional plot, the average range of motion between pairs of atoms within a macromolecule. Comparison of sigma-r plots calculated from 10 ns trajectories of proteins representing the four major SCOP fold classes indicates diversity of dynamic behaviors which are recognizably different among the four classes. Differences in domain structure and molecular weight also produce recognizable features in sigma-r plots, reflective of differences in global dynamics. Plots generated from trajectories with progressively increasing simulation time reflect the increased sampling of the structural ensemble as a function of time. Single amino acid replacements can give rise to changes in global dynamics detectable through comparison of sigma-r plots. Dynamic behavior of substructures can be monitored by careful choice of interatomic vectors included in the calculation. These examples provide demonstrations of the utility of the sigma-r plot to provide a simple measure of the global dynamics of a macromolecule. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-time predictions in nonlinear dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Szebehely, V.

1980-01-01

It is known that nonintegrable dynamical systems do not allow precise predictions concerning their behavior for arbitrary long times. The available series solutions are not uniformly convergent according to Poincare's theorem and numerical integrations lose their meaningfulness after the elapse of arbitrary long times. Two approaches are the use of existing global integrals and statistical methods. This paper presents a generalized method along the first approach. As examples long-time predictions in the classical gravitational satellite and planetary problems are treated.

Correcting for Blood Arrival Time in Global Mean Regression Enhances Functional Connectivity Analysis of Resting State fMRI-BOLD Signals.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Sinem B; Tong, Yunjie; Hocke, Lia M; Lindsey, Kimberly P; deB Frederick, Blaise

2016-01-01

Resting state functional connectivity analysis is a widely used method for mapping intrinsic functional organization of the brain. Global signal regression (GSR) is commonly employed for removing systemic global variance from resting state BOLD-fMRI data; however, recent studies have demonstrated that GSR may introduce spurious negative correlations within and between functional networks, calling into question the meaning of anticorrelations reported between some networks. In the present study, we propose that global signal from resting state fMRI is composed primarily of systemic low frequency oscillations (sLFOs) that propagate with cerebral blood circulation throughout the brain. We introduce a novel systemic noise removal strategy for resting state fMRI data, "dynamic global signal regression" (dGSR), which applies a voxel-specific optimal time delay to the global signal prior to regression from voxel-wise time series. We test our hypothesis on two functional systems that are suggested to be intrinsically organized into anticorrelated networks: the default mode network (DMN) and task positive network (TPN). We evaluate the efficacy of dGSR and compare its performance with the conventional "static" global regression (sGSR) method in terms of (i) explaining systemic variance in the data and (ii) enhancing specificity and sensitivity of functional connectivity measures. dGSR increases the amount of BOLD signal variance being modeled and removed relative to sGSR while reducing spurious negative correlations introduced in reference regions by sGSR, and attenuating inflated positive connectivity measures. We conclude that incorporating time delay information for sLFOs into global noise removal strategies is of crucial importance for optimal noise removal from resting state functional connectivity maps.

Marine microbes in 4D-using time series observation to assess the dynamics of the ocean microbiome and its links to ocean health.

PubMed

Buttigieg, Pier Luigi; Fadeev, Eduard; Bienhold, Christina; Hehemann, Laura; Offre, Pierre; Boetius, Antje

2018-02-21

Microbial observation is of high relevance in assessing marine phenomena of scientific and societal concern including ocean productivity, harmful algal blooms, and pathogen exposure. However, we have yet to realise its potential to coherently and comprehensively report on global ocean status. The ability of satellites to monitor the distribution of phytoplankton has transformed our appreciation of microbes as the foundation of key ecosystem services; however, more in-depth understanding of microbial dynamics is needed to fully assess natural and anthropogenically induced variation in ocean ecosystems. While this first synthesis shows that notable efforts exist, vast regions such as the ocean depths, the open ocean, the polar oceans, and most of the Southern Hemisphere lack consistent observation. To secure a coordinated future for a global microbial observing system, existing long-term efforts must be better networked to generate shared bioindicators of the Global Ocean's state and health. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Temporal dynamics influenced by global change: bee community phenology in urban, agricultural, and natural landscapes.

PubMed

Leong, Misha; Ponisio, Lauren C; Kremen, Claire; Thorp, Robbin W; Roderick, George K

2016-03-01

Urbanization and agricultural intensification of landscapes are important drivers of global change, which in turn have direct impacts on local ecological communities leading to shifts in species distributions and interactions. Here, we illustrate how human-altered landscapes, with novel ornamental and crop plant communities, result not only in changes to local community diversity of floral-dependent species, but also in shifts in seasonal abundance of bee pollinators. Three years of data on the spatio-temporal distributions of 91 bee species show that seasonal patterns of abundance and species richness in human-altered landscapes varied significantly less compared to natural habitats in which floral resources are relatively scarce in the dry summer months. These findings demonstrate that anthropogenic environmental changes in urban and agricultural systems, here mediated through changes in plant resources and water inputs, can alter the temporal dynamics of pollinators that depend on them. Changes in phenology of interactions can be an important, though frequently overlooked, mechanism of global change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

2015-12-01

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

Development and application of earth system models

PubMed Central

Prinn, Ronald G.

2013-01-01

The global environment is a complex and dynamic system. Earth system modeling is needed to help understand changes in interacting subsystems, elucidate the influence of human activities, and explore possible future changes. Integrated assessment of environment and human development is arguably the most difficult and most important “systems” problem faced. To illustrate this approach, we present results from the integrated global system model (IGSM), which consists of coupled submodels addressing economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics, and ecosystem processes. An uncertainty analysis implies that without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 3.5 °C and 7.4 °C from 1981–2000 to 2091–2100 (90% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 6.4 °C to 14 °C (90% confidence limits). Similar analysis of four increasingly stringent climate mitigation policy cases involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels indicates that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The IGSM is also used to elucidate potential unintended environmental consequences of renewable energy at large scales. There are significant reasons for attention to climate adaptation in addition to climate mitigation that earth system models can help inform. These models can also be applied to evaluate whether “climate engineering” is a viable option or a dangerous diversion. We must prepare young people to address this issue: The problem of preserving a habitable planet will engage present and future generations. Scientists must improve communication if research is to inform the public and policy makers better. PMID:22706645

Global Existence and Uniqueness of Weak and Regular Solutions of Shallow Shells with Thermal Effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Menzala, G. Perla, E-mail: perla@lncc.br; Cezaro, F. Travessini De, E-mail: fabianacezaro@furg.br

2016-10-15

We study a dynamical thin shallow shell whose elastic deformations are described by a nonlinear system of Marguerre–Vlasov’s type under the presence of thermal effects. Our main result is the proof of a global existence and uniqueness of a weak solution in the case of clamped boundary conditions. Standard techniques for uniqueness do not work directly in this case. We overcame this difficulty using recent work due to Lasiecka (Appl Anal 4:1376–1422, 1998).

Novel metaheuristic for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic biological systems

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Fernandez, Maria; Egea, Jose A; Banga, Julio R

2006-01-01

Background We consider the problem of parameter estimation (model calibration) in nonlinear dynamic models of biological systems. Due to the frequent ill-conditioning and multi-modality of many of these problems, traditional local methods usually fail (unless initialized with very good guesses of the parameter vector). In order to surmount these difficulties, global optimization (GO) methods have been suggested as robust alternatives. Currently, deterministic GO methods can not solve problems of realistic size within this class in reasonable computation times. In contrast, certain types of stochastic GO methods have shown promising results, although the computational cost remains large. Rodriguez-Fernandez and coworkers have presented hybrid stochastic-deterministic GO methods which could reduce computation time by one order of magnitude while guaranteeing robustness. Our goal here was to further reduce the computational effort without loosing robustness. Results We have developed a new procedure based on the scatter search methodology for nonlinear optimization of dynamic models of arbitrary (or even unknown) structure (i.e. black-box models). In this contribution, we describe and apply this novel metaheuristic, inspired by recent developments in the field of operations research, to a set of complex identification problems and we make a critical comparison with respect to the previous (above mentioned) successful methods. Conclusion Robust and efficient methods for parameter estimation are of key importance in systems biology and related areas. The new metaheuristic presented in this paper aims to ensure the proper solution of these problems by adopting a global optimization approach, while keeping the computational effort under reasonable values. This new metaheuristic was applied to a set of three challenging parameter estimation problems of nonlinear dynamic biological systems, outperforming very significantly all the methods previously used for these benchmark problems. PMID:17081289

Novel metaheuristic for parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic biological systems.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Fernandez, Maria; Egea, Jose A; Banga, Julio R

2006-11-02

We consider the problem of parameter estimation (model calibration) in nonlinear dynamic models of biological systems. Due to the frequent ill-conditioning and multi-modality of many of these problems, traditional local methods usually fail (unless initialized with very good guesses of the parameter vector). In order to surmount these difficulties, global optimization (GO) methods have been suggested as robust alternatives. Currently, deterministic GO methods can not solve problems of realistic size within this class in reasonable computation times. In contrast, certain types of stochastic GO methods have shown promising results, although the computational cost remains large. Rodriguez-Fernandez and coworkers have presented hybrid stochastic-deterministic GO methods which could reduce computation time by one order of magnitude while guaranteeing robustness. Our goal here was to further reduce the computational effort without loosing robustness. We have developed a new procedure based on the scatter search methodology for nonlinear optimization of dynamic models of arbitrary (or even unknown) structure (i.e. black-box models). In this contribution, we describe and apply this novel metaheuristic, inspired by recent developments in the field of operations research, to a set of complex identification problems and we make a critical comparison with respect to the previous (above mentioned) successful methods. Robust and efficient methods for parameter estimation are of key importance in systems biology and related areas. The new metaheuristic presented in this paper aims to ensure the proper solution of these problems by adopting a global optimization approach, while keeping the computational effort under reasonable values. This new metaheuristic was applied to a set of three challenging parameter estimation problems of nonlinear dynamic biological systems, outperforming very significantly all the methods previously used for these benchmark problems.

Dissipative open systems theory as a foundation for the thermodynamics of linear systems.

PubMed

Delvenne, Jean-Charles; Sandberg, Henrik

2017-03-06

In this paper, we advocate the use of open dynamical systems, i.e. systems sharing input and output variables with their environment, and the dissipativity theory initiated by Jan Willems as models of thermodynamical systems, at the microscopic and macroscopic level alike. We take linear systems as a study case, where we show how to derive a global Lyapunov function to analyse networks of interconnected systems. We define a suitable notion of dynamic non-equilibrium temperature that allows us to derive a discrete Fourier law ruling the exchange of heat between lumped, discrete-space systems, enriched with the Maxwell-Cattaneo correction. We complete these results by a brief recall of the steps that allow complete derivation of the dissipation and fluctuation in macroscopic systems (i.e. at the level of probability distributions) from lossless and deterministic systems.This article is part of the themed issue 'Horizons of cybernetical physics'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sharma, A. Surjalal

1996-01-01

The solar wind-magnetosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity on the dynamics. The observational time series data were used together with phase space reconstruction techniques to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics. Analysis of the solar wind, auroral electrojet and Dst indices showed low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input/output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises from its dynamical synchronism with the solar wind. The electrodynamic coupling between different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent, low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations can be used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide space weather forecasting capabilities.

Robust control of combustion instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Boe-Shong

Several interactive dynamical subsystems, each of which has its own time-scale and physical significance, are decomposed to build a feedback-controlled combustion- fluid robust dynamics. On the fast-time scale, the phenomenon of combustion instability is corresponding to the internal feedback of two subsystems: acoustic dynamics and flame dynamics, which are parametrically dependent on the slow-time-scale mean-flow dynamics controlled for global performance by a mean-flow controller. This dissertation constructs such a control system, through modeling, analysis and synthesis, to deal with model uncertainties, environmental noises and time- varying mean-flow operation. Conservation law is decomposed as fast-time acoustic dynamics and slow-time mean-flow dynamics, served for synthesizing LPV (linear parameter varying)- L2-gain robust control law, in which a robust observer is embedded for estimating and controlling the internal status, while achieving trade- offs among robustness, performances and operation. The robust controller is formulated as two LPV-type Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs), whose numerical solver is developed by finite-element method. Some important issues related to physical understanding and engineering application are discussed in simulated results of the control system.

Optimal wide-area monitoring and nonlinear adaptive coordinating neurocontrol of a power system with wind power integration and multiple FACTS devices.

PubMed

Qiao, Wei; Venayagamoorthy, Ganesh K; Harley, Ronald G

2008-01-01

Wide-area coordinating control is becoming an important issue and a challenging problem in the power industry. This paper proposes a novel optimal wide-area coordinating neurocontrol (WACNC), based on wide-area measurements, for a power system with power system stabilizers, a large wind farm and multiple flexible ac transmission system (FACTS) devices. An optimal wide-area monitor (OWAM), which is a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), is designed to identify the input-output dynamics of the nonlinear power system. Its parameters are optimized through particle swarm optimization (PSO). Based on the OWAM, the WACNC is then designed by using the dual heuristic programming (DHP) method and RBFNNs, while considering the effect of signal transmission delays. The WACNC operates at a global level to coordinate the actions of local power system controllers. Each local controller communicates with the WACNC, receives remote control signals from the WACNC to enhance its dynamic performance and therefore helps improve system-wide dynamic and transient performance. The proposed control is verified by simulation studies on a multimachine power system.

Model of ballistic targets' dynamics used for trajectory tracking algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okoń-FÄ fara, Marta; Kawalec, Adam; Witczak, Andrzej

2017-04-01

There are known only few ballistic object tracking algorithms. To develop such algorithms and to its further testing, it is necessary to implement possibly simple and reliable objects' dynamics model. The article presents the dynamics' model of a tactical ballistic missile (TBM) including the three stages of flight: the boost stage and two passive stages - the ascending one and the descending one. Additionally, the procedure of transformation from the local coordinate system to the polar-radar oriented and the global is presented. The prepared theoretical data may be used to determine the tracking algorithm parameters and to its further verification.

The Einstein-Vlasov System/Kinetic Theory.

PubMed

Andréasson, Håkan

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this article is to provide a guide to theorems on global properties of solutions to the Einstein-Vlasov system. This system couples Einstein's equations to a kinetic matter model. Kinetic theory has been an important field of research during several decades in which the main focus has been on non-relativistic and special relativistic physics, i.e., to model the dynamics of neutral gases, plasmas, and Newtonian self-gravitating systems. In 1990, Rendall and Rein initiated a mathematical study of the Einstein-Vlasov system. Since then many theorems on global properties of solutions to this system have been established. This paper gives introductions to kinetic theory in non-curved spacetimes and then the Einstein-Vlasov system is introduced. We believe that a good understanding of kinetic theory in non-curved spacetimes is fundamental to a good comprehension of kinetic theory in general relativity.

Communications Satellite Systems Conference, 9th, San Diego, CA, March 7-11, 1982, Collection of Technical Papers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

The Shuttle-to-Geostationary Orbital Transfer by mid-level thrust is considered along with multibeam antenna concepts for global communications, the antenna pointing systems for large communication satellites, the connection phase of multidestination protocols for broadcast satellites, and an experiment in high-speed international packet switching. Attention is given to a dynamic switch matrix for the TDMA satellite switching system, the characterization of 16 bit microprocessors for space use, in-orbit operation and test of Intelsat V satellites, the first operational communications system via satellite in Europe, the Arab satellite communications systems, second generation business satellite systems for Europe, and a high performance Ku-band satellite for the 1980's. Other topics investigated are related to Ku-band terminal design tradeoffs, progress in the definition of the Italian satellite for domestic telecommunications, future global satellite systems for Intelsat, and satellite refuelling in orbit.

NASA/MSFC FY88 Global Scale Atmospheric Processes Research Program Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Greg S. (Editor); Leslie, Fred W. (Editor); Arnold, J. E. (Editor)

1989-01-01

Interest in environmental issues and the magnitude of the environmental changes continues. One way to gain more understanding of the atmosphere is to make measurements on a global scale from space. The Earth Observation System is a series of new sensors to measure globally atmospheric parameters. Analysis of satellite data by developing algorithms to interpret the radiance information improves the understanding and also defines requirements for these sensors. One measure of knowledge of the atmosphere lies in the ability to predict its behavior. Use of numerical and experimental models provides a better understanding of these processes. These efforts are described in the context of satellite data analysis and fundamental studies of atmospheric dynamics which examine selected processes important to the global circulation.

Tracking the global footprint of fisheries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroodsma, David A.; Mayorga, Juan; Hochberg, Timothy; Miller, Nathan A.; Boerder, Kristina; Ferretti, Francesco; Wilson, Alex; Bergman, Bjorn; White, Timothy D.; Block, Barbara A.; Woods, Paul; Sullivan, Brian; Costello, Christopher; Worm, Boris

2018-02-01

Although fishing is one of the most widespread activities by which humans harvest natural resources, its global footprint is poorly understood and has never been directly quantified. We processed 22 billion automatic identification system messages and tracked >70,000 industrial fishing vessels from 2012 to 2016, creating a global dynamic footprint of fishing effort with spatial and temporal resolution two to three orders of magnitude higher than for previous data sets. Our data show that industrial fishing occurs in >55% of ocean area and has a spatial extent more than four times that of agriculture. We find that global patterns of fishing have surprisingly low sensitivity to short-term economic and environmental variation and a strong response to cultural and political events such as holidays and closures.

Global lightning studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Wright, Pat; Christian, Hugh; Blakeslee, Richard; Buechler, Dennis; Scharfen, Greg

1991-01-01

The global lightning signatures were analyzed from the DMSP Optical Linescan System (OLS) imagery archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Transition to analysis of the digital archive becomes available and compare annual, interannual, and seasonal variations with other global data sets. An initial survey of the quality of the existing film archive was completed and lightning signatures were digitized for the summer months of 1986 to 1987. The relationship is studied between: (1) global and regional lightning activity and rainfall, and (2) storm electrical development and environment. Remote sensing data sets obtained from field programs are used in conjunction with satellite/radar/lightning data to develop and improve precipitation estimation algorithms, and to provide a better understanding of the co-evolving electrical, microphysical, and dynamical structure of storms.

Earth survey applications division: Research leading to the effective use of space technology in applications relating to the Earth's surface and interior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, L. (Editor)

1980-01-01

Accomplishments and future plans are described for the following areas: (1) geology - geobotanical indicators and geopotential data; (2) modeling magnetic fields; (3) modeling the structure, composition, and evolution of the Earth's crust; (4) global and regional motions of the Earth's crust and earthquake occurrence; (5) modeling geopotential from satellite tracking data; (6) modeling the Earth's gravity field; (7) global Earth dynamics; (8) sea surface topography, ocean dynamics; and geophysical interpretation; (9) land cover and land use; (10) physical and remote sensing attributes important in detecting, measuring, and monitoring agricultural crops; (11) prelaunch studies using LANDSAT D; (12) the multispectral linear array; (13) the aircraft linear array pushbroom radiometer; and (14) the spaceborne laser ranging system.

Progress in the Phase 0 Model Development of a STAR Concept for Dynamics and Control Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods-Vedeler, Jessica A.; Armand, Sasan C.

2003-01-01

The paper describes progress in the development of a lightweight, deployable passive Synthetic Thinned Aperture Radiometer (STAR). The spacecraft concept presented will enable the realization of 10 km resolution global soil moisture and ocean salinity measurements at 1.41 GHz. The focus of this work was on definition of an approximately 1/3-scaled, 5-meter Phase 0 test article for concept demonstration and dynamics and control testing. Design requirements, parameters and a multi-parameter, hybrid scaling approach for the dynamically scaled test model were established. The El Scaling Approach that was established allows designers freedom to define the cross section of scaled, lightweight structural components that is most convenient for manufacturing when the mass of the component is small compared to the overall system mass. Static and dynamic response analysis was conducted on analytical models to evaluate system level performance and to optimize panel geometry for optimal tension load distribution.

Renormalization of Collective Modes in Large-Scale Neural Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moirogiannis, Dimitrios; Piro, Oreste; Magnasco, Marcelo O.

2017-05-01

The bulk of studies of coupled oscillators use, as is appropriate in Physics, a global coupling constant controlling all individual interactions. However, because as the coupling is increased, the number of relevant degrees of freedom also increases, this setting conflates the strength of the coupling with the effective dimensionality of the resulting dynamics. We propose a coupling more appropriate to neural circuitry, where synaptic strengths are under biological, activity-dependent control and where the coupling strength and the dimensionality can be controlled separately. Here we study a set of N→ ∞ strongly- and nonsymmetrically-coupled, dissipative, powered, rotational dynamical systems, and derive the equations of motion of the reduced system for dimensions 2 and 4. Our setting highlights the statistical structure of the eigenvectors of the connectivity matrix as the fundamental determinant of collective behavior, inheriting from this structure symmetries and singularities absent from the original microscopic dynamics.

Distribution and dynamics of electron transport complexes in cyanobacterial thylakoid membranes☆

PubMed Central

Liu, Lu-Ning

2016-01-01

The cyanobacterial thylakoid membrane represents a system that can carry out both oxygenic photosynthesis and respiration simultaneously. The organization, interactions and mobility of components of these two electron transport pathways are indispensable to the biosynthesis of thylakoid membrane modules and the optimization of bioenergetic electron flow in response to environmental changes. These are of fundamental importance to the metabolic robustness and plasticity of cyanobacteria. This review summarizes our current knowledge about the distribution and dynamics of electron transport components in cyanobacterial thylakoid membranes. Global understanding of the principles that govern the dynamic regulation of electron transport pathways in nature will provide a framework for the design and synthetic engineering of new bioenergetic machinery to improve photosynthesis and biofuel production. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Organization and dynamics of bioenergetic systems in bacteria, edited by Conrad Mullineaux. PMID:26619924

Distribution and dynamics of electron transport complexes in cyanobacterial thylakoid membranes.

PubMed

Liu, Lu-Ning

2016-03-01

The cyanobacterial thylakoid membrane represents a system that can carry out both oxygenic photosynthesis and respiration simultaneously. The organization, interactions and mobility of components of these two electron transport pathways are indispensable to the biosynthesis of thylakoid membrane modules and the optimization of bioenergetic electron flow in response to environmental changes. These are of fundamental importance to the metabolic robustness and plasticity of cyanobacteria. This review summarizes our current knowledge about the distribution and dynamics of electron transport components in cyanobacterial thylakoid membranes. Global understanding of the principles that govern the dynamic regulation of electron transport pathways in nature will provide a framework for the design and synthetic engineering of new bioenergetic machinery to improve photosynthesis and biofuel production. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Organization and dynamics of bioenergetic systems in bacteria, edited by Conrad Mullineaux. Copyright © 2015 The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Correlation and network topologies in global and local stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Sungmin; Kim, Doo Hwan; Lee, Jae Woo

2014-07-01

We examined how the correlation and network structure of the global indices and local Korean indices have changed during years 2000-2012. The average correlations of the global indices increased with time, while the local indices showed a decreasing trend except for drastic changes during the crises. A significant change in the network topologies was observed due to the financial crises in both markets. The Jaccard similarities identified the change in the market state due to a crisis in both markets. The dynamic change of the Jaccard index can be used as an indicator of systemic risk or precursors of the crisis.

An evaluation of the real-time tropical cyclone forecast skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the western North Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fiorino, Michael; Goerss, James S.; Jensen, Jack J.; Harrison, Edward J., Jr.

1993-01-01

The paper evaluates the meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones. It is shown that the model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The meterological characteristics of the NOGAPS tropical cyclone predictions are evaluated by examining the formation of low-level cyclone systems in the tropics and vortex structure in the NOGAPS analysis and verifying 72-h forecasts. The adjusted NOGAPS track forecasts showed equitable skill to the baseline aid and the dynamical model. NOGAPS successfully predicted unusual equatorward turns for several straight-running cyclones.

Modular Software for Spacecraft Navigation Using the Global Positioning System (GPS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Truong, S. H.; Hartman, K. R.; Weidow, D. A.; Berry, D. L.; Oza, D. H.; Long, A. C.; Joyce, E.; Steger, W. L.

1996-01-01

The Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics and Mission Operations Divisions have jointly investigated the feasibility of engineering modular Global Positioning SYSTEM (GPS) navigation software to support both real time flight and ground postprocessing configurations. The goals of this effort are to define standard GPS data interfaces and to engineer standard, reusable navigation software components that can be used to build a broad range of GPS navigation support applications. The paper discusses the GPS modular software (GMOD) system and operations concepts, major requirements, candidate software architecture, feasibility assessment and recommended software interface standards. In additon, ongoing efforts to broaden the scope of the initial study and to develop modular software to support autonomous navigation using GPS are addressed,

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

PubMed Central

Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

2015-01-01

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience.

PubMed

Kharrazi, Ali; Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks' redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks.

Network structure impacts global commodity trade growth and resilience

PubMed Central

Rovenskaya, Elena; Fath, Brian D.

2017-01-01

Global commodity trade networks are critical to our collective sustainable development. Their increasing interconnectedness pose two practical questions: (i) Do the current network configurations support their further growth? (ii) How resilient are these networks to economic shocks? We analyze the data of global commodity trade flows from 1996 to 2012 to evaluate the relationship between structural properties of the global commodity trade networks and (a) their dynamic growth, as well as (b) the resilience of their growth with respect to the 2009 global economic shock. Specifically, we explore the role of network efficiency and redundancy using the information theory-based network flow analysis. We find that, while network efficiency is positively correlated with growth, highly efficient systems appear to be less resilient, losing more and gaining less growth following an economic shock. While all examined networks are rather redundant, we find that network redundancy does not hinder their growth. Moreover, systems exhibiting higher levels of redundancy lose less and gain more growth following an economic shock. We suggest that a strategy to support making global trade networks more efficient via, e.g., preferential trade agreements and higher specialization, can promote their further growth; while a strategy to increase the global trade networks’ redundancy via e.g., more abundant free-trade agreements, can improve their resilience to global economic shocks. PMID:28207790

Evaluations of high-resolution dynamically downscaled ensembles over the contiguous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zobel, Zachary; Wang, Jiali; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kotamarthi, V. Rao

2018-02-01

This study uses Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to evaluate the performance of six dynamical downscaled decadal historical simulations with 12-km resolution for a large domain (7200 × 6180 km) that covers most of North America. The initial and boundary conditions are from three global climate models (GCMs) and one reanalysis data. The GCMs employed in this study are the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component, Community Climate System Model, version 4, and the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System. The reanalysis data is from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-US. Department of Energy Reanalysis II. We analyze the effects of bias correcting, the lateral boundary conditions and the effects of spectral nudging. We evaluate the model performance for seven surface variables and four upper atmospheric variables based on their climatology and extremes for seven subregions across the United States. The results indicate that the simulation's performance depends on both location and the features/variable being tested. We find that the use of bias correction and/or nudging is beneficial in many situations, but employing these when running the RCM is not always an improvement when compared to the reference data. The use of an ensemble mean and median leads to a better performance in measuring the climatology, while it is significantly biased for the extremes, showing much larger differences than individual GCM driven model simulations from the reference data. This study provides a comprehensive evaluation of these historical model runs in order to make informed decisions when making future projections.

Chaos control of the brushless direct current motor using adaptive dynamic surface control based on neural network with the minimum weights.

PubMed

Luo, Shaohua; Wu, Songli; Gao, Ruizhen

2015-07-01

This paper investigates chaos control for the brushless DC motor (BLDCM) system by adaptive dynamic surface approach based on neural network with the minimum weights. The BLDCM system contains parameter perturbation, chaotic behavior, and uncertainty. With the help of radial basis function (RBF) neural network to approximate the unknown nonlinear functions, the adaptive law is established to overcome uncertainty of the control gain. By introducing the RBF neural network and adaptive technology into the dynamic surface control design, a robust chaos control scheme is developed. It is proved that the proposed control approach can guarantee that all signals in the closed-loop system are globally uniformly bounded, and the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. Simulation results are provided to show that the proposed approach works well in suppressing chaos and parameter perturbation.

Chaos control of the brushless direct current motor using adaptive dynamic surface control based on neural network with the minimum weights

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Shaohua; Department of Mechanical Engineering, Chongqing Aerospace Polytechnic, Chongqing, 400021; Wu, Songli

2015-07-15

This paper investigates chaos control for the brushless DC motor (BLDCM) system by adaptive dynamic surface approach based on neural network with the minimum weights. The BLDCM system contains parameter perturbation, chaotic behavior, and uncertainty. With the help of radial basis function (RBF) neural network to approximate the unknown nonlinear functions, the adaptive law is established to overcome uncertainty of the control gain. By introducing the RBF neural network and adaptive technology into the dynamic surface control design, a robust chaos control scheme is developed. It is proved that the proposed control approach can guarantee that all signals in themore » closed-loop system are globally uniformly bounded, and the tracking error converges to a small neighborhood of the origin. Simulation results are provided to show that the proposed approach works well in suppressing chaos and parameter perturbation.« less

Multiple tipping points and optimal repairing in interacting networks

PubMed Central

Majdandzic, Antonio; Braunstein, Lidia A.; Curme, Chester; Vodenska, Irena; Levy-Carciente, Sary; Eugene Stanley, H.; Havlin, Shlomo

2016-01-01

Systems composed of many interacting dynamical networks—such as the human body with its biological networks or the global economic network consisting of regional clusters—often exhibit complicated collective dynamics. Three fundamental processes that are typically present are failure, damage spread and recovery. Here we develop a model for such systems and find a very rich phase diagram that becomes increasingly more complex as the number of interacting networks increases. In the simplest example of two interacting networks we find two critical points, four triple points, ten allowed transitions and two ‘forbidden' transitions, as well as complex hysteresis loops. Remarkably, we find that triple points play the dominant role in constructing the optimal repairing strategy in damaged interacting systems. To test our model, we analyse an example of real interacting financial networks and find evidence of rapid dynamical transitions between well-defined states, in agreement with the predictions of our model. PMID:26926803

Gr-GDHP: A New Architecture for Globalized Dual Heuristic Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Zhong, Xiangnan; Ni, Zhen; He, Haibo

2017-10-01

Goal representation globalized dual heuristic dynamic programming (Gr-GDHP) method is proposed in this paper. A goal neural network is integrated into the traditional GDHP method providing an internal reinforcement signal and its derivatives to help the control and learning process. From the proposed architecture, it is shown that the obtained internal reinforcement signal and its derivatives can be able to adjust themselves online over time rather than a fixed or predefined function in literature. Furthermore, the obtained derivatives can directly contribute to the objective function of the critic network, whose learning process is thus simplified. Numerical simulation studies are applied to show the performance of the proposed Gr-GDHP method and compare the results with other existing adaptive dynamic programming designs. We also investigate this method on a ball-and-beam balancing system. The statistical simulation results are presented for both the Gr-GDHP and the GDHP methods to demonstrate the improved learning and controlling performance.

Failure dynamics of the global risk network.

PubMed

Szymanski, Boleslaw K; Lin, Xin; Asztalos, Andrea; Sreenivasan, Sameet

2015-06-18

Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach in which expert assessments of likelihoods and influence of risks underlie a quantitative model of the global risk network dynamics. The modeled risks range from environmental to economic and technological, and include difficult to quantify risks, such as geo-political and social. Using the maximum likelihood estimation, we find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model including network effects significantly outperforms the others, uncovering full value of the expert collected data. We analyze the model dynamics and study its resilience and stability. Our findings include such risk properties as contagion potential, persistence, roles in cascades of failures and the identity of risks most detrimental to system stability. The model provides quantitative means for measuring the adverse effects of risk interdependencies and the materialization of risks in the network.

Non-recursive augmented Lagrangian algorithms for the forward and inverse dynamics of constrained flexible multibodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayo, Eduardo; Ledesma, Ragnar

1993-01-01

A technique is presented for solving the inverse dynamics of flexible planar multibody systems. This technique yields the non-causal joint efforts (inverse dynamics) as well as the internal states (inverse kinematics) that produce a prescribed nominal trajectory of the end effector. A non-recursive global Lagrangian approach is used in formulating the equations for motion as well as in solving the inverse dynamics equations. Contrary to the recursive method previously presented, the proposed method solves the inverse problem in a systematic and direct manner for both open-chain as well as closed-chain configurations. Numerical simulation shows that the proposed procedure provides an excellent tracking of the desired end effector trajectory.

Dynamics and optimal control of a non-linear epidemic model with relapse and cure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lahrouz, A.; El Mahjour, H.; Settati, A.; Bernoussi, A.

2018-04-01

In this work, we introduce the basic reproduction number R0 for a general epidemic model with graded cure, relapse and nonlinear incidence rate in a non-constant population size. We established that the disease free-equilibrium state Ef is globally asymptotically exponentially stable if R0 < 1 and globally asymptotically stable if R0 = 1. If R0 > 1, we proved that the system model has at least one endemic state Ee. Then, by means of an appropriate Lyapunov function, we showed that Ee is unique and globally asymptotically stable under some acceptable biological conditions. On the other hand, we use two types of control to reduce the number of infectious individuals. The optimality system is formulated and solved numerically using a Gauss-Seidel-like implicit finite-difference method.

Optimal perturbations for nonlinear systems using graph-based optimal transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grover, Piyush; Elamvazhuthi, Karthik

2018-06-01

We formulate and solve a class of finite-time transport and mixing problems in the set-oriented framework. The aim is to obtain optimal discrete-time perturbations in nonlinear dynamical systems to transport a specified initial measure on the phase space to a final measure in finite time. The measure is propagated under system dynamics in between the perturbations via the associated transfer operator. Each perturbation is described by a deterministic map in the measure space that implements a version of Monge-Kantorovich optimal transport with quadratic cost. Hence, the optimal solution minimizes a sum of quadratic costs on phase space transport due to the perturbations applied at specified times. The action of the transport map is approximated by a continuous pseudo-time flow on a graph, resulting in a tractable convex optimization problem. This problem is solved via state-of-the-art solvers to global optimality. We apply this algorithm to a problem of transport between measures supported on two disjoint almost-invariant sets in a chaotic fluid system, and to a finite-time optimal mixing problem by choosing the final measure to be uniform. In both cases, the optimal perturbations are found to exploit the phase space structures, such as lobe dynamics, leading to efficient global transport. As the time-horizon of the problem is increased, the optimal perturbations become increasingly localized. Hence, by combining the transfer operator approach with ideas from the theory of optimal mass transportation, we obtain a discrete-time graph-based algorithm for optimal transport and mixing in nonlinear systems.

Data Assimilation Into Physics-Based Models Via Kalman Filters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Sojka, J. J.

2002-12-01

The magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere (M-I-T) system is a highly dynamic, coupled, and nonlinear system that can vary significantly from hour to hour at any location. The coupling is particularly strong during geomagnetic storms and substorms, but there are appreciable time delays associated with the transfer of mass, momentum, and energy between the domains. Therefore, both global physics-based models and vast observational data sets are needed to elucidate the dynamics, energetics, and coupling in the M-I-T system. Fortunately, during the coming decade, tens of millions of measurements of the global M-I-T system could become available from a variety of in situ and remote sensing instruments. Some of the measurements will provide direct information about the state variables (densities, drift velocities, and temperatures), while others will provide indirect information, such as optical emissions and magnetic perturbations. The data sources available could include: thousands of ground-based GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) receivers; a world-wide network of ionosondes; hundreds of magnetometers both on the ground and in space; occultations from the COSMIC Satellites, numerous ground-based tomography chains; auroral images from the POLAR Satellite; images of the magnetosphere and plasmasphere from the IMAGE Satellite; SuperDARN radar measurements in the polar regions; the Living With a Star (LWS) Solar Dynamics Observatory and the LWS Radiation Belt and Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes; and the world-wide network of incoherent scatter radars. To optimize the scientific return and to provide specifications and forecasts for societal applications, the global models and data must be combined in an optimum way. A powerful way of assimilating multiple data types into a time-dependent, physics-based, numerical model is via a Kalman filter. The basic principle of this approach is to combine measurements from multiple instrument types with the information obtained from a physics-based model, taking into account the uncertainties in both the model and measurements. The advantages of this technique and the data sources that might be available will be discussed.

Markov Task Network: A Framework for Service Composition under Uncertainty in Cyber-Physical Systems.

PubMed

Mohammed, Abdul-Wahid; Xu, Yang; Hu, Haixiao; Agyemang, Brighter

2016-09-21

In novel collaborative systems, cooperative entities collaborate services to achieve local and global objectives. With the growing pervasiveness of cyber-physical systems, however, such collaboration is hampered by differences in the operations of the cyber and physical objects, and the need for the dynamic formation of collaborative functionality given high-level system goals has become practical. In this paper, we propose a cross-layer automation and management model for cyber-physical systems. This models the dynamic formation of collaborative services pursuing laid-down system goals as an ontology-oriented hierarchical task network. Ontological intelligence provides the semantic technology of this model, and through semantic reasoning, primitive tasks can be dynamically composed from high-level system goals. In dealing with uncertainty, we further propose a novel bridge between hierarchical task networks and Markov logic networks, called the Markov task network. This leverages the efficient inference algorithms of Markov logic networks to reduce both computational and inferential loads in task decomposition. From the results of our experiments, high-precision service composition under uncertainty can be achieved using this approach.

General Framework for Animal Food Safety Traceability Using GS1 and RFID

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Weizhu; Zheng, Limin; Zhu, Hong; Wu, Ping

GS1 is global traceability standard, which is composed by the encoding system (EAN/UCC, EPC), the data carriers identified automatically (bar codes, RFID), electronic data interchange standards (EDI, XML). RFID is a non-contact, multi-objective automatic identification technique. Tracing of source food, standardization of RFID tags, sharing of dynamic data are problems to solve urgently for recent traceability systems. The paper designed general framework for animal food safety traceability using GS1 and RFID. This framework uses RFID tags encoding with EPCglobal tag data standards. Each information server has access tier, business tier and resource tier. These servers are heterogeneous and distributed, providing user access interfaces by SOAP or HTTP protocols. For sharing dynamic data, discovery service and object name service are used to locate dynamic distributed information servers.

Voronoi Diagram Based Optimization of Dynamic Reactive Power Sources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Weihong; Sun, Kai; Qi, Junjian

2015-01-01

Dynamic var sources can effectively mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery (FIDVR) issues or even voltage collapse. This paper proposes a new approach to optimization of the sizes of dynamic var sources at candidate locations by a Voronoi diagram based algorithm. It first disperses sample points of potential solutions in a searching space, evaluates a cost function at each point by barycentric interpolation for the subspaces around the point, and then constructs a Voronoi diagram about cost function values over the entire space. Accordingly, the final optimal solution can be obtained. Case studies on the WSCC 9-bus system and NPCC 140-busmore » system have validated that the new approach can quickly identify the boundary of feasible solutions in searching space and converge to the global optimal solution.« less

Quenched dynamics of classical isolated systems: the spherical spin model with two-body random interactions or the Neumann integrable model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; Lozano, Gustavo S.; Nessi, Nicolás; Picco, Marco; Tartaglia, Alessandro

2018-06-01

We study the Hamiltonian dynamics of the spherical spin model with fully-connected two-body random interactions. In the statistical physics framework, the potential energy is of the so-called p  =  2 kind, closely linked to the scalar field theory. Most importantly for our setting, the energy conserving dynamics are equivalent to the ones of the Neumann integrable model. We take initial conditions from the Boltzmann equilibrium measure at a temperature that can be above or below the static phase transition, typical of a disordered (paramagnetic) or of an ordered (disguised ferromagnetic) equilibrium phase. We subsequently evolve the configurations with Newton dynamics dictated by a different Hamiltonian, obtained from an instantaneous global rescaling of the elements in the interaction random matrix. In the limit of infinitely many degrees of freedom, , we identify three dynamical phases depending on the parameters that characterise the initial state and the final Hamiltonian. We next set the analysis of the system with finite number of degrees of freedom in terms of N non-linearly coupled modes. We argue that in the limit the modes decouple at long times. We evaluate the mode temperatures and we relate them to the frequency-dependent effective temperature measured with the fluctuation-dissipation relation in the frequency domain, similarly to what was recently proposed for quantum integrable cases. Finally, we analyse the N  ‑  1 integrals of motion, notably, their scaling with N, and we use them to show that the system is out of equilibrium in all phases, even for parameters that show an apparent Gibbs–Boltzmann behaviour of the global observables. We elaborate on the role played by these constants of motion after the quench and we briefly discuss the possible description of the asymptotic dynamics in terms of a generalised Gibbs ensemble.

Performance and Quality Assessment of the Forthcoming Copernicus Marine Service Global Ocean Monitoring and Forecasting Real-Time System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lellouche, J. M.; Le Galloudec, O.; Greiner, E.; Garric, G.; Regnier, C.; Drillet, Y.

2016-02-01

Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity.Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS) and is in charge of the global ocean analyses and forecast, at eddy resolving resolution. In this context, R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years in order to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for the next CMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefit among others from the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting …This presentation doesn't focus on the impact of each update, but rather on the overall behavior of the system integrating all updates. This assessment reports on the products quality improvements, highlighting the level of performance and the reliability of the new system.