EOF analysis of COSMIC observations on the global zonal mean temperature structure of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere from 2007 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, Cornelius Csar Jude H.; Chang, Loren C.

2018-06-01

This work presents the results of a Conventional Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis on daily global zonal mean temperature profiles in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (15-35 km), as measured by the FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC mission from January 2007 to June 2013. For validation, results were compared with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Results show that, the leading global EOF mode (27%) from COSMIC is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the tropical cooling associated with boreal winter Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW). The second global EOF mode from COSMIC (15.3%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO). The third global mode from COSMIC (10.9%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This work also shows that the second northern hemisphere EOF mode from COSMIC (16.8%) is consistent with temperature anomalies due Rossby-wave breaking (RWB) which is expected to only be resolved by a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC. Our work concludes that the use of a high vertical and temporal resolution dataset like COSMIC yields non-seasonal EOF modes that are consistent with relatively more intricate temperature anomalies due to the SSW, QBO, ENSO and RWB.

A space-based climatology of diurnal MLT tidal winds, temperatures and densities from UARS wind measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svoboda, Aaron A.; Forbes, Jeffrey M.; Miyahara, Saburo

2005-11-01

A self-consistent global tidal climatology, useful for comparing and interpreting radar observations from different locations around the globe, is created from space-based Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) horizontal wind measurements. The climatology created includes tidal structures for horizontal winds, temperature and relative density, and is constructed by fitting local (in latitude and height) UARS wind data at 95 km to a set of basis functions called Hough mode extensions (HMEs). These basis functions are numerically computed modifications to Hough modes and are globally self-consistent in wind, temperature, and density. We first demonstrate this self-consistency with a proxy data set from the Kyushu University General Circulation Model, and then use a linear weighted superposition of the HMEs obtained from monthly fits to the UARS data to extrapolate the global, multi-variable tidal structure. A brief explanation of the HMEs’ origin is provided as well as information about a public website that has been set up to make the full extrapolated data sets available.

Have the temperature time series a structural change after 1998?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Rolf; Valev, Dimitare; Danov, Dimitar

2012-07-01

The global and hemisphere temperature GISS and Hadcrut3 time series were analysed for structural changes. We postulate the continuity of the preceding temperature function depending from the time. The slopes are calculated for a sequence of segments limited by time thresholds. We used a standard method, the restricted linear regression with dummy variables. We performed the calculations and tests for different number of thresholds. The thresholds are searched continuously in determined time intervals. The F-statistic is used to obtain the time points of the structural changes.

A mechanism for the formation and sustainment of the self-organized global profile and E   ×   B staircase in tokamak plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, W.; Kishimoto, Y.; Imadera, K.; Li, J. Q.; Wang, Z. X.

2018-05-01

The mechanism for the formation and sustainment of a self-organized global profile and the ‘ E   ×   B staircase’ are investigated through simulations of a flux-driven ion temperature gradient (ITG) turbulence based on GKNET, a 5D global gyrokinetic code. The staircase is found to be initiated from the radially extended ITG mode structures with nearly up-down symmetry during the saturation phase, and is established as it evolves into a quasi-steady turbulence, leading to a self-organized global temperature profile and to meso-scale isomorphic profiles of the radial electric field and the temperature gradient. It is found that the quasi-regular E   ×   B shear flow pattern is primarily originated from an even-symmetrical zonal flow produced by the extended ITG mode, which flow pattern exhibits an in-phase relation with the mean flow variation induced by the temperature relaxation. Consequently, the staircase is initiated through the profiles of total electric field and temperature gradient with a self-organized manner. Since the sign of E   ×   B shear flow at the central part are opposite to that at both edges, it disintegrates the ITG mode into smaller scale eddies. Meanwhile, smaller scale eddies tend to be aligned radially by spontaneous phase matching, which can provide the growth of mode amplitude and the formation of radially extended mode structures, leading to the bursty heat transport. This process is repeated quasi-periodically, sustaining self-organized structures and the E   ×   B staircase. Moreover, the equilibrium mean field is found to be of specific importance in causing the structures and dynamics from meso- to macro scales in toroidal plasmas.

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Global features of the semiannual oscillation in stratospheric temperatures and comparison between seasons and hemispheres

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gao, Xin-Hai; Yu, Wen-Bi; Stanford, John L.

1987-01-01

Four years of satellite-derived microwave and infrared radiances are analyzed for the three-dimensional and seasonal variation of semiannual oscillations (SAO) in stratospheric temperatures, with particular focus on high latitudes, to investigate the effect of stratospheric warmings on SAO. Separate analyses of individual seasons in each hemisphere reveal that the strongest SAO in temperature occur in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter polar upper stratosphere. These results, together with the latitudinal structure of the temperature SAO and the fact that the NH polar SAO is nearly out of phase with the lower latitude SAO, are consistent with the existence of a global-scale, meridional circulation on the SAO time scale. The results suggest that polar stratospheric warmings are an important source of SAO in both high and low latitude stratospheric temperature fields. Interannual variations, three-dimensional phase structure, and zonal asymmetry of SAO are also detailed. The SH stratospheric SAO is dominated by a localized feature in the high-latitude, eastern hemisphere which tilts westward with height.

Spatiotemporal correlation structure of the Earth's surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fredriksen, Hege-Beate; Rypdal, Kristoffer; Rypdal, Martin

2015-04-01

We investigate the spatiotemporal temperature variability for several gridded instrumental and climate model data sets. The temporal variability is analysed by estimating the power spectral density and studying the differences between local and global temperatures, land and sea, and among local temperature records at different locations. The spatiotemporal correlation structure is analysed through cross-spectra that allow us to compute frequency-dependent spatial autocorrelation functions (ACFs). Our results are then compared to theoretical spectra and frequency-dependent spatial ACFs derived from a fractional stochastic-diffusive energy balance model (FEBM). From the FEBM we expect both local and global temperatures to have a long-range persistent temporal behaviour, and the spectral exponent (β) is expected to increase by a factor of two when going from local to global scales. Our comparison of the average local spectrum and the global spectrum shows good agreement with this model, although the FEBM has so far only been studied for a pure land planet and a pure ocean planet, respectively, with no seasonal forcing. Hence it cannot capture the substantial variability among the local spectra, in particular between the spectra for land and sea, and for equatorial and non-equatorial temperatures. Both models and observation data show that land temperatures in general have a low persistence, while sea surface temperatures show a higher, and also more variable degree of persistence. Near the equator the spectra deviate from the power-law shape expected from the FEBM. Instead we observe large variability at time scales of a few years due to ENSO, and a flat spectrum at longer time scales, making the spectrum more reminiscent of that of a red noise process. From the frequency-dependent spatial ACFs we observe that the spatial correlation length increases with increasing time scale, which is also consistent with the FEBM. One consequence of this is that longer-lasting structures must also be wider in space. The spatial correlation length is also observed to be longer for land than for sea. The climate model simulations studied are mainly CMIP5 control runs of length 500-1000 yr. On time scales up to several centuries we do not observe that the difference between the local and global spectral exponents vanish. This also follows from the FEBM and shows that the dynamics is spatiotemporal (not just temporal) even on these time scales.

Gravity wave momentum flux estimation from CRISTA satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ern, M.; Preusse, P.; Alexander, M. J.; Offermann, D.

2003-04-01

Temperature altitude profiles measured by the CRISTA satellite were analyzed for gravity waves (GWs). Amplitudes, vertical and horizontal wavelengths of GWs are retrieved by applying a combination of maximum entropy method (MEM) and harmonic analysis (HA) to the temperature height profiles and subsequently comparing the so retrieved GW phases of adjacent altitude profiles. From these results global maps of the absolute value of the vertical flux of horizontal momentum have been estimated. Significant differences between distributions of the temperature variance and distributions of the momentum flux exist. For example, global maps of the momentum flux show a pronounced northward shift of the equatorial maximum whereas temperature variance maps of the tropics/subtropics are nearly symmetric with respect to the equator. This indicates the importance of the influence of horizontal and vertical wavelength distribution on global structures of the momentum flux.

Atmospheric moisture and cloud structure determined from SSM/I and global gridpoint analyses. [Special Sensor Microwave Imager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Huang, Huo-Jin

1989-01-01

Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/I on the DMSP satellite are used to study atmospheric moisture and cloud structure. Column-integrated water vapor and total liquid water retrievals are obtained using an algorithm based on a radiative model for brightness temperature (Wentz, 1983). The results from analyzing microwave and IR measurements are combined with independent global gridpoint analyses to study the distribution and structure of atmospheric moisture over oceanic regions.

[The conformational dynamics of the tetramer hemoglobin molecule as revealed by hydrogen exchange. III. Influence of the heme removal].

PubMed

Abaturov, L V; Nosova, N G; Shliapnikova, S V

2006-01-01

Two main types of conformational fluctuations--local and global are characteristic of the native protein structure and revealed by hydrogen exchange. The probability of those fluctuations changes to a different extent upon hemoglobin oxygenation, changing of pH, splitting of the intersubunit contacts. To compare with the influence of the heme removal the rate of the H-D exchange of the peptide NH atoms of the human apoHb was studied at the pH range 5.5-9.0 and temperature 10-38 degrees C by the IR spectroscopy. The removal of the heme increases the rate of the H-D exchange of the 80% peptide NH atoms with the factor retardation of the exchange rate (P) in the range approximately 10(2)-10(8). For the most of the peptide NH atoms the probability of the local fluctuations weakly depends on the temperature, the enthalpy changes upon all such local conformational transitions deltaH(op) degrees are 0-15 kcal/M. Characterized by the stronger temperature dependence the global fluctuations are not arised upon the temperature increases up to 38 degrees C at pH 7.0 inspite of in these conditions the slow denaturation and aggregation of apoHb begin to occur. Upon the destabilization of the apoHb structure by the simultaneous decreasing of pH to 5.5 and temperature to 10 degrees C the global fluctuations of the apoHb native structure described by deltaH(op)o < 0 begin to intensify. The mechanism of the overall intensification of the local fluctuations upon the heme removal, the peculiarity of the heat denaturation of apoHb in conditions, close to that existing upon the selfassembly of Hb in vivo, and analogy between low temperature global fluctuations and cold denaturation of globular proteins are discussed.

On the Interannual Variability and on Trends of the Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.; Naujokat, B.

1985-01-01

The new Reference Atmosphere presented here is based on global satellite data and forms a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the well known interannual variability which n themiddle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. Variability ofthe upper and lower stratospheres is discussed in detail. Areas covered included the polar region and the middile and lower latitudes. Temperature trends, notably the alteration of the global temperature structure by a number of anthropogenically influenced tract gases or the greenhouse effect is discussed.

[Hydrogen exchange and proteolytic degradation of ribonuclease A. Similarities and distinctions of the kinetic mechanisms].

PubMed

Abaturov, L V; Nosova, N G

2007-01-01

The studies by IR spectroscopy of the temperature dependence of the H-D exchange rate of the RNase A peptide NH atoms permit one to characterize two types of conformation fluctuations, local and global. A comparison with the temperature dependence of the proteolytic degradation rate of RNase A shows that similar in nature fluctuations allow for the H-D exchange of NH atoms and the splitting of peptide bonds of the native protein. In the low temperature region, both processes occur through local fluctuations, by way of the EX2 mechanism, and in the high temperature region, they occur through global fluctuations with the overall denaturation desorganization of the native structure, by way of the EX1 mechanism. The biphasic dependence of the rate of H-D exchange and proteolytic degradation of RNase A on urea concentration is also explained by the combination of local and global fluctuations.

Structural Variation of Alpha-synuclein with Temperature by a Coarse-grained Approach with Knowledge-based Interactions (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-01

the radius of gyration in detail as a function FIG. 5. Variation of the root mean square (RMS) displacement of the center of mass of the protein with...depends on the temperature. The global motion can be examined by analyzing the variation of the root mean square displacement (RMS) of the center of...and global physical quantities during the course of simula- tion, including the energy of each residue, its mobility, mean square displacement of the

Processes of Equatorial Thermal Structure: An Analysis of Galileo Temperature Profile with 3-D Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majeed, T.; Waite, J. H., Jr.; Bougher, S. W.; Gladstone, G. R.

2005-01-01

The Jupiter Thermosphere General Circulation Model (JTGCM) calculates the global dynamical structure of Jupiter's thermosphere self-consistently with its global thermal structure and composition. The main heat source that drives the thermospheric flow is high-latitude Joule heating. A secondary source of heating is the auroral process of particle precipitation. Global simulations of Jovian thermospheric dynamics indicate strong neutral outflows from the auroral ovals with velocities up to approximately 2 kilometers per second and subsequent convergence and downwelling at the Jovian equator. Such circulation is shown to be an important process for transporting significant amounts of auroral energy to equatorial latitudes and for regulating the global heat budget in a manner consistent with the high thermospheric temperatures observed by the Galileo probe. Adiabatic compression of the neutral atmosphere resulting from downward motion is an important source of equatorial heating (less than 0.06 microbar). The adiabatic heating continues to dominate between 0.06 and 0.2 microbar, but with an addition of comparable heating due to horizontal advection induced by the meridional flow. Thermal conduction plays an important role in transporting heat down to lower altitudes (greater than 0.2microbar) where it is balanced by the cooling associated with the wind transport processes. Interestingly, we find that radiative cooling caused by H3(+), CH4, and C2H2 emissions does not play a significant role in interpreting the Galileo temperature profile.

Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models.

PubMed

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong

2017-02-01

The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO 2 , and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO 2 influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO 2 concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (Δ F tree ; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether Δ F tree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage ( F tree ; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of Δ F tree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, F tree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% <  F tree  < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, Δ F tree had a stronger dependence on F tree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO 2 concentration.

Static Stability in the Global Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Observations of Long-term Mean Structure and Variability using GPS Radio Occultation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grise, K. M.; Thompson, D. W.; Birner, T.

2009-12-01

Static stability is a fundamental dynamical quantity that measures the vertical temperature stratification of the atmosphere. The long-term mean static stability field is characterized by the well-known transition from low values in the troposphere to high values in the stratosphere. However, the magnitude and structure of fine-scale static stability features near the tropopause are difficult to discern in temperature data with low vertical resolution. In this study, the authors apply over six years of high vertical resolution Global Positioning System radio occultation temperature profiles to document the long-term mean structure and variability of static stability in the global upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The results of this study demonstrate that a shallow but pronounced maximum in static stability exists just above the tropopause at all latitudes (i.e., the “tropopause inversion layer,” or TIL). This study also uncovers two novel aspects of static stability in the global UTLS. In the tropical lower stratosphere, the results reveal a unique vertically and horizontally varying static stability structure, with maxima located at ~17 km and ~19 km. The upper feature peaks during the NH cold season and has its largest magnitude between 10 and 15 degrees latitude in both hemispheres; the lower feature exhibits a weaker seasonal cycle and is centered at the Equator. The results also demonstrate that the strength of the TIL is closely tied to stratospheric dynamic variability. The magnitude of the TIL is enhanced following sudden stratospheric warmings in the polar regions and the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropics.

Static Stability in the Global Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere: Observations of Long-term Mean Structure and Variability using GPS Radio Occultation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grise, Kevin M.; Thompson, David W. J.; Birner, Thomas

2010-05-01

Static stability is a fundamental dynamical quantity that measures the vertical temperature stratification of the atmosphere. The long-term mean static stability field is characterized by the well-known transition from low values in the troposphere to high values in the stratosphere. However, the magnitude and structure of fine-scale static stability features near the tropopause are difficult to discern in temperature data with low vertical resolution. In this study, the authors apply over six years of high vertical resolution Global Positioning System radio occultation temperature profiles to document the long-term mean structure and variability of static stability in the global upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The results of this study demonstrate that a shallow but pronounced maximum in static stability exists just above the tropopause at all latitudes (i.e., the "tropopause inversion layer," or TIL). This study also uncovers two novel aspects of static stability in the global UTLS. In the tropical lower stratosphere, the results reveal a unique vertically and horizontally varying static stability structure, with maxima located at ~17 km and ~19 km. The upper feature peaks during the NH cold season and has its largest magnitude between 10 and 15 degrees latitude in both hemispheres; the lower feature exhibits a weaker seasonal cycle and is centered at the Equator. The results also demonstrate that the strength of the TIL is closely tied to stratospheric dynamic variability. The magnitude of the TIL is enhanced following sudden stratospheric warmings in the polar regions and the easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropics.

Pivot method for global optimization: A study of structures and phase changes in water clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nigra, Pablo Fernando

In this thesis, we have carried out a study of water clusters. The research work has been developed in two stages. In the first stage, we have investigated the properties of water clusters at zero temperature by means of global optimization. The clusters were modeled by using two well known pairwise potentials having distinct characteristics. One is the Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine potential (MCY) that is an ab initio fitted function based on a rigid-molecule model, the other is the Sillinger-Rahman potential (SR) which is an empirical function based on a flexible-molecule model. The algorithm used for the global optimization of the clusters was the pivot method, which was developed in our group. The results have shown that, under certain conditions, the pivot method may yield optimized structures which are related to one another in such a way that they seem to form structural families. The structures in a family can be thought of as formed from the aggregation of single units. The particular types of structures we have found are quasi-one dimensional tubes built from stacking cyclic units such as tetramers, pentamers, and hexamers. The binding energies of these tubes form sequences that span smooth curves with clear asymptotic behavior; therefore, we have also studied the sequences applying the Bulirsch-Stoer (BST) algorithm to accelerate convergence. In the second stage of the research work, we have studied the thermodynamic properties of a typical water cluster at finite temperatures. The selected cluster was the water octamer which exhibits a definite solid-liquid phase change. The water octamer also has several low lying energy cubic structures with large energetic barriers that cause ergodicity breaking in regular Monte Carlo simulations. For that reason we have simulated the octamer using paralell tempering Monte Carlo combined with the multihistogram method. This has permited us to calculate the heat capacity from very low temperatures up to T = 230 K. We have found the melting temperature to be 178.5 K. In addition, we have been able to estimate at 12 K the onset temperature of a solid-solid phase change between the two lowest energy lying isomers.

The Global Optimization of Pt13 Cluster Using the First-Principle Molecular Dynamics with the Quenching Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangping; Duan, Haiming; Cao, Biaobing; Long, Mengqiu

2018-03-01

The high-temperature first-principle molecular dynamics method used to obtain the low energy configurations of clusters [L. L. Wang and D. D. Johnson, PRB 75, 235405 (2007)] is extended to a considerably large temperature range by combination with the quenching technique. Our results show that there are strong correlations between the possibilities for obtaining the ground-state structure and the temperatures. Larger possibilities can be obtained at relatively low temperatures (as corresponds to the pre-melting temperature range). Details of the structural correlation with the temperature are investigated by taking the Pt13 cluster as an example, which suggests a quite efficient method to obtain the lowest-energy geometries of metal clusters.

Horizontal Temperature Variability in the Stratosphere: Global Variations Inferred from CRISTA Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eidmann, G.; Offermann, D.; Jarisch, M.; Preusse, P.; Eckermann, S. D.; Schmidlin, F. J.

2001-01-01

In two separate orbital campaigns (November, 1994 and August, 1997), the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) instrument acquired global stratospheric data of high accuracy and high spatial resolution. The standard limb-scanned CRISTA measurements resolved atmospheric spatial structures with vertical dimensions greater than or equal to 1.5 - 2 km and horizontal dimensions is greater than or equal to 100 - 200 km. A fluctuation analysis of horizontal temperature distributions derived from these data is presented. This method is somewhat complementary to conventional power-spectral analysis techniques.

Global properties of the plasma in the outer heliosphere. I - Large-scale structure and evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Gazis, P. R.; Lazarus, A. J.; Belcher, J. W.; Gordon, G. S., Jr.; Mcnutt, R. L., Jr.

1992-01-01

Pioneers 10 and 11, and Voyager 2, have active plasma analyzers as they proceed through heliocentric distances of the order of 30-50 AU, facilitating comparative studies of the global character of the outer solar wind and its variation over the solar cycle. Careful study of these data show that wind ion temperature remains constant beyond 15 AU, and that there may be large-scale variations of temperature with celestial longitude and heliographic latitude. There has thus far been no indication of a heliospheric terminal shock.

Retrieving Temperature Anomaly in the Global Subsurface and Deeper Ocean From Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Hua; Li, Wene; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

Retrieving the subsurface and deeper ocean (SDO) dynamic parameters from satellite observations is crucial for effectively understanding ocean interior anomalies and dynamic processes, but it is challenging to accurately estimate the subsurface thermal structure over the global scale from sea surface parameters. This study proposes a new approach based on Random Forest (RF) machine learning to retrieve subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the global ocean from multisource satellite observations including sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), sea surface salinity anomaly (SSSA), and sea surface wind anomaly (SSWA) via in situ Argo data for RF training and testing. RF machine-learning approach can accurately retrieve the STA in the global ocean from satellite observations of sea surface parameters (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA). The Argo STA data were used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the results from the RF model. The results indicated that SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, and SSWA together are useful parameters for detecting SDO thermal information and obtaining accurate STA estimations. The proposed method also outperformed support vector regression (SVR) in global STA estimation. It will be a useful technique for studying SDO thermal variability and its role in global climate system from global-scale satellite observations.

Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils.

PubMed

Weedon, James T; Aerts, Rien; Kowalchuk, George A; van Bodegom, Peter M

2011-01-01

Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding the response of the soil nitrogen cycle to shifts in temperature and other global change factors is crucial for predicting the fate of cold biome carbon stores. Measurements of soil enzyme activities at different positions of the nitrogen cycling network are an important tool for this purpose. We review a selection of studies that provide data on potential enzyme activities across natural, seasonal and experimental gradients in cold biomes. Responses of enzyme activities to increased nitrogen availability and temperature are diverse and seasonal dynamics are often larger than differences due to experimental treatments, suggesting that enzyme expression is regulated by a combination of interacting factors reflecting both nutrient supply and demand. The extrapolation from potential enzyme activities to prediction of elemental nitrogen fluxes under field conditions remains challenging. Progress in molecular '-omics' approaches may eventually facilitate deeper understanding of the links between soil microbial community structure and biogeochemical fluxes. In the meantime, accounting for effects of the soil spatial structure and in situ variations in pH and temperature, better mapping of the network of enzymatic processes and the identification of rate-limiting steps under different conditions should advance our ability to predict nitrogen fluxes.

Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Communication: On the origin of the non-Arrhenius behavior in water reorientation dynamics.

PubMed

Stirnemann, Guillaume; Laage, Damien

2012-07-21

We combine molecular dynamics simulations and analytic modeling to determine the origin of the non-Arrhenius temperature dependence of liquid water's reorientation and hydrogen-bond dynamics between 235 K and 350 K. We present a quantitative model connecting hydrogen-bond exchange dynamics to local structural fluctuations, measured by the asphericity of Voronoi cells associated with each water molecule. For a fixed local structure the regular Arrhenius behavior is recovered, and the global anomalous temperature dependence is demonstrated to essentially result from a continuous shift in the unimodal structure distribution upon cooling. The non-Arrhenius behavior can thus be explained without invoking an equilibrium between distinct structures. In addition, the large width of the homogeneous structural distribution is shown to cause a growing dynamical heterogeneity and a non-exponential relaxation at low temperature.

Magnetosheath Filamentary Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rojas-Castillo, D. I.; Blanco-Cano, X.; Omidi, N.; Kajdic, P.

2014-12-01

The terrestrial magnetosheath is full of highly perturbed plasma. The inhomogeneity of this region leads to temperature anisotropies that can originate waves; e.g, mirror mode and ion cyclotron waves. Other structures like the magnetosheath filamentary structures (MFS) can also be present. These are structures reported from results of global hybrid simulations by Omidi et al. (2014) that are formed in the quasi-parallel region of the bow shock and they are convected into the magnetosheath. The MFS are characterized by field aligned enhancements of density and temperature that are anti-correlated. In this work we analyze magnetic field and plasma data from the THEMIS mission to explore the possible existence of MFS.

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Kuo, E.

1976-01-01

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Study of the lower stratospheric thermal structure and total ozone from Nimbus-4 IRIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.

1976-01-01

The global distribution of temperature in the stratosphere from 100 to 10 mbar and the total ozone in the atmosphere are remotely sensed from the Nimbus-4 IRIS measurements for a period of about one year. The temperature and ozone data are presented in the form of monthly mean global maps. The standard deviations of temperature and ozone with respect to zonal averages are calculated. The mean and the variable state of the stratosphere are discussed with the help of these observations. The lower stratosphere in the tropical regions reveals a significant wave number one pattern in the circulation. The Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric winter circulation regimes display a different behavior apparently due to the ocean and orographic differences.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming.

PubMed

Mackintosh, Andrew N; Anderson, Brian M; Lorrey, Andrew M; Renwick, James A; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M

2017-02-14

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-02-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans.

Regional cooling caused recent New Zealand glacier advances in a period of global warming

PubMed Central

Mackintosh, Andrew N.; Anderson, Brian M.; Lorrey, Andrew M.; Renwick, James A.; Frei, Prisco; Dean, Sam M.

2017-01-01

Glaciers experienced worldwide retreat during the twentieth and early twenty first centuries, and the negative trend in global glacier mass balance since the early 1990s is predominantly a response to anthropogenic climate warming. The exceptional terminus advance of some glaciers during recent global warming is thought to relate to locally specific climate conditions, such as increased precipitation. In New Zealand, at least 58 glaciers advanced between 1983 and 2008, and Franz Josef and Fox glaciers advanced nearly continuously during this time. Here we show that the glacier advance phase resulted predominantly from discrete periods of reduced air temperature, rather than increased precipitation. The lower temperatures were associated with anomalous southerly winds and low sea surface temperature in the Tasman Sea region. These conditions result from variability in the structure of the extratropical atmospheric circulation over the South Pacific. While this sequence of climate variability and its effect on New Zealand glaciers is unusual on a global scale, it remains consistent with a climate system that is being modified by humans. PMID:28195582

Climate change, parasitism and the structure of intertidal ecosystems.

PubMed

Poulin, R; Mouritsen, K N

2006-06-01

Evidence is accumulating rapidly showing that temperature and other climatic variables are driving many ecological processes. At the same time, recent research has highlighted the role of parasitism in the dynamics of animal populations and the structure of animal communities. Here, the likely interactions between climate change and parasitism are discussed in the context of intertidal ecosystems. Firstly, using the soft-sediment intertidal communities of Otago Harbour, New Zealand, as a case study, parasites are shown to be ubiquitous components of intertidal communities, found in practically all major animal species in the system. With the help of specific examples from Otago Harbour, it is demonstrated that parasites can regulate host population density, influence the diversity of the entire benthic community, and affect the structure of the intertidal food web. Secondly, we document the extreme sensitivity of cercarial production in parasitic trematodes to increases in temperature, and discuss how global warming could lead to enhanced trematode infections. Thirdly, the results of a simulation model are used to argue that parasite-mediated local extinctions of intertidal animals are a likely outcome of global warming. Specifically, the model predicts that following a temperature increase of less than 4 degrees C, populations of the amphipod Corophium volutator, a hugely abundant tube-building amphipod on the mudflats of the Danish Wadden Sea, are likely to crash repeatedly due to mortality induced by microphallid trematodes. The available evidence indicates that climate-mediated changes in local parasite abundance will have significant repercussions for intertidal ecosystems. On the bright side, the marked effects of even slight increases in temperature on cercarial production in trematodes could form the basis for monitoring programmes, with these sensitive parasites providing early warning signals of the environmental impacts of global warming.

Nonlinear analysis for high-temperature multilayered fiber composite structures. M.S. Thesis; [turbine blades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hopkins, D. A.

1984-01-01

A unique upward-integrated top-down-structured approach is presented for nonlinear analysis of high-temperature multilayered fiber composite structures. Based on this approach, a special purpose computer code was developed (nonlinear COBSTRAN) which is specifically tailored for the nonlinear analysis of tungsten-fiber-reinforced superalloy (TFRS) composite turbine blade/vane components of gas turbine engines. Special features of this computational capability include accounting of; micro- and macro-heterogeneity, nonlinear (stess-temperature-time dependent) and anisotropic material behavior, and fiber degradation. A demonstration problem is presented to mainfest the utility of the upward-integrated top-down-structured approach, in general, and to illustrate the present capability represented by the nonlinear COBSTRAN code. Preliminary results indicate that nonlinear COBSTRAN provides the means for relating the local nonlinear and anisotropic material behavior of the composite constituents to the global response of the turbine blade/vane structure.

Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

Effect of Simulated Climate Warming on the Ectomycorrhizal Fungal Community of Boreal and Temperate Host Species Growing Near Their Shared Ecotonal Range Limits.

PubMed

Mucha, Joanna; Peay, Kabir G; Smith, Dylan P; Reich, Peter B; Stefański, Artur; Hobbie, Sarah E

2018-02-01

Ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi can influence the establishment and performance of host species by increasing nutrient and water absorption. Therefore, understanding the response of ECM fungi to expected changes in the global climate is crucial for predicting potential changes in the composition and productivity of forests. While anthropogenic activity has, and will continue to, cause global temperature increases, few studies have investigated how increases in temperature will affect the community composition of ectomycorrhizal fungi. The effects of global warming are expected to be particularly strong at biome boundaries and in the northern latitudes. In the present study, we analyzed the effects of experimental manipulations of temperature and canopy structure (open vs. closed) on ectomycorrhizal fungi identified from roots of host seedlings through 454 pyrosequencing. The ecotonal boundary site selected for the study was between the southern boreal and temperate forests in northern Minnesota, USA, which is the southern limit range for Picea glauca and Betula papyrifera and the northern one for Pinus strobus and Quercus rubra. Manipulations that increased air and soil temperature by 1.7 and 3.4 °C above ambient temperatures, respectively, did not change ECM richness but did alter the composition of the ECM community in a manner dependent on host and canopy structure. The prediction that colonization of boreal tree species with ECM symbionts characteristic of temperate species would occur was not substantiated. Overall, only a small proportion of the ECM community appears to be strongly sensitive to warming.

A global view of F-region electron density and temperature at solar maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brace, L. H.; Theis, R. F.; Hoegy, W. R.

1982-01-01

It is pointed out that the thermal structure of the ionosphere represents a quasi-static balance between a variety of heat sources and sinks which vary spatially and temporally on a wide range of time scales. The present investigation has the objective to present selected early results from the Dynamics Explorer-2 (DE-2) Langmuir probe instrument and to make an initial evaluation of how the thermal structure of the ionosphere at solar maximum differs from that observed at solar minimum. Bowen et al. (1964) and Brace and Reddy (1965) devised early empirical models of the F region electron temperature (Te), based on satellite Langmuir probe measurements at low levels of solar activity. The global structure of Te and the electron density (Ne) obtained in the current investigation is not very different from that reported by Brace and Reddy. The primary difference at solar maximum is that Ne is everywhere much higher, but Te differs only in detail.

Estimation of Global Subsurface Thermal Structure from Satellite Remote Sensing Observations Based on Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, H.; Yan, X. H.

2017-12-01

Subsurface thermal structure of the global ocean is a key factor that reflects the impact of the global climate variability and change. Accurately determining and describing the global subsurface and deeper ocean thermal structure from satellite measurements is becoming even more important for understanding the ocean interior anomaly and dynamic processes during recent global warming and hiatus. It is essential but challenging to determine the extent to which such surface remote sensing observations can be used to develop information about the global ocean interior. This study proposed a Support Vector Regression (SVR) method to estimate Subsurface Temperature Anomaly (STA) in the global ocean. The SVR model can well estimate the global STA upper 1000 m through a suite of satellite remote sensing observations of sea surface parameters (including Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA), Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (SSTA), Sea Surface Salinity Anomaly (SSSA) and Sea Surface Wind Anomaly (SSWA)) with in situ Argo data for training and testing at different depth levels. Here, we employed the MSE and R2 to assess SVR performance on the STA estimation. The results from the SVR model were validated for the accuracy and reliability using the worldwide Argo STA data. The average MSE and R2 of the 15 levels are 0.0090 / 0.0086 / 0.0087 and 0.443 / 0.457 / 0.485 for 2-attributes (SSHA, SSTA) / 3-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA) / 4-attributes (SSHA, SSTA, SSSA, SSWA) SVR, respectively. The estimation accuracy was improved by including SSSA and SSWA for SVR input (MSE decreased by 0.4% / 0.3% and R2 increased by 1.4% / 4.2% on average). While, the estimation accuracy gradually decreased with the increase of the depth from 500 m. The results showed that SSSA and SSWA, in addition to SSTA and SSHA, are useful parameters that can help estimate the subsurface thermal structure, as well as improve the STA estimation accuracy. In future, we can figure out more potential and useful sea surface parameters from satellite remote sensing as input attributes so as to further improve the STA sensing accuracy from machine learning. This study can provide a helpful technique for studying thermal variability in the ocean interior which has played an important role in recent global warming and hiatus from satellite observations over global scale.

Spatio-temporal reproducibility of the microbial food web structure associated with the change in temperature: Long-term observations in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šolić, Mladen; Grbec, Branka; Matić, Frano; Šantić, Danijela; Šestanović, Stefanija; Ninčević Gladan, Živana; Bojanić, Natalia; Ordulj, Marin; Jozić, Slaven; Vrdoljak, Ana

2018-02-01

Global and atmospheric climate change is altering the thermal conditions in the Adriatic Sea and, consequently, the marine ecosystem. Along the eastern Adriatic coast sea surface temperature (SST) increased by an average of 1.03 °C during the period from 1979 to 2015, while in the recent period, starting from 2008, a strong upward almost linear trend of 0.013 °C/month was noted. Being mainly oligotrophic, the middle Adriatic Sea is characterized by the important role played by the microbial food web in the production and transfer of biomass and energy towards higher trophic levels. It is very important to understand the effect of warming on microbial communities, since small temperature increases in surface seawater can greatly modify the microbial role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) procedure was used to analyse the time series of a number of microbial parameters at two stations with different trophic status in the central Adriatic Sea. The results show that responses of the microbial food web (MFW) structure to temperature changes are reproducible in time. Furthermore, qualitatively similar changes in the structure of the MFW occurred regardless of the trophic status. The rise in temperature was associated with: (1) the increasing importance of microbial heterotrophic activities (increase bacterial growth and bacterial predator abundance, particularly heterotrophic nanoflagellates) and (2) the increasing importance of autotrophic picoplankton (APP) in the MFW.

Evidence for environmental and ecological selection in a microbe with no geographic limits to gene flow.

PubMed

Whittaker, Kerry A; Rynearson, Tatiana A

2017-03-07

The ability for organisms to disperse throughout their environment is thought to strongly influence population structure and thus evolution of diversity within species. A decades-long debate surrounds processes that generate and support high microbial diversity, particularly in the ocean. The debate concerns whether diversification occurs primarily through geographic partitioning (where distance limits gene flow) or through environmental selection, and remains unresolved due to lack of empirical data. Here we show that gene flow in a diatom, an ecologically important eukaryotic microbe, is not limited by global-scale geographic distance. Instead, environmental and ecological selection likely play a more significant role than dispersal in generating and maintaining diversity. We detected significantly diverged populations ( F ST > 0.130) and discovered temporal genetic variability at a single site that was on par with spatial genetic variability observed over distances of 15,000 km. Relatedness among populations was decoupled from geographic distance across the global ocean and instead, correlated significantly with water temperature and whole-community chlorophyll a Correlations with temperature point to the importance of environmental selection in structuring populations. Correlations with whole-community chlorophyll a , a proxy for autotrophic biomass, suggest that ecological selection via interactions with other plankton may generate and maintain population genetic structure in marine microbes despite global-scale dispersal. Here, we provide empirical evidence for global gene flow in a marine eukaryotic microbe, suggesting that everything holds the potential to be everywhere, with environmental and ecological selection rather than geography or dispersal dictating the structure and evolution of diversity over space and time.

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

Latitudinal variability of large-scale coronal temperature and its association with the density and the global magnetic field

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guhathakurta, M.; Fisher, R. R.

1994-01-01

In this paper we utilize the latitiude distribution of the coronal temperature during the period 1984-1992 that was derived in a paper by Guhathakurta et al, 1993, utilizing ground-based intensity observations of the green (5303 A Fe XIV) and red (6374 A Fe X) coronal forbidden lines from the National Solar Observatory at Sacramento Peak, and establish it association with the global magnetic field and the density distributions in the corona. A determination of plasma temperature, T, was estimated from the intensity ratio Fe X/Fe XIV (where T is inversely proportional to the ratio), since both emission lines come from ionized states of Fe, and the ratio is only weakly dependent on density. We observe that there is a large-scale organization of the inferred coronal temperature distribution that is associated with the large-scale, weak magnetic field structures and bright coronal features; this organization tends to persist through most of the magnetic activity cycle. These high-temperature structures exhibit time-space characteristics which are similar to those of the polar crown filaments. This distribution differs in spatial and temporal characterization from the traditional picture of sunspot and active region evolution over the range of the sunspot cycle, which are manifestations of the small-scale, strong magnetic field regions.

Soil temperature and water content drive microbial carbon fixation in grassland of permafrost area on the Tibetan plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, W.; Guo, G.; Liu, J.

2014-12-01

Soil microbial communities underpin terrestrial biogeochemical cycles and are greatly influenced by global warming and global-warming-induced dryness. However, the response of soil microbial community function to global change remains largely uncertain, particularly in the ecologically vulnerable Tibetan plateau permafrost area with large carbon storage. With the concept of space for time substitution, we investigated the responses of soil CO2-fixing microbial community and its enzyme activity to climate change along an elevation gradient (4400-5100 m) of alpine grassland on the central Tibetan plateau. The elevation gradient in a south-facing hill slope leads to variation in climate and soil physicochemical parameters. The autotrophic microbial communities were characterized by quantitative PCR (qPCR), terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis (T-RFLP) and cloning/sequencing targeting the CO2-fixing gene (RubisCO). The results demonstrated that the autotrophic microbial community abundance, structure and its enzyme activity were mainly driven by soil temperature and water content. Soil temperature increase and water decrease dramatically reduced the abundance of the outnumbered form IC RubisCO-containing microbes, and significantly changed the structure of form IC, IAB and ID RubisCO-containing microbial community. Structural equation model revealed that the RubisCO enzyme was directly derived from RubisCO-containing microbes and its activity was significantly reduced by soil temperature increase and water content decrease. Thus our results provide a novel positive feedback loop of climate warming and warming-induced dryness by that soil microbial carbon fixing potential will reduce by 3.77%-8.86% with the soil temperature increase of 1.94oC and water content decrease of 60%-70%. This positive feedback could be capable of amplifying the climate change given the significant contribution of soil microbial CO2-fixing up to 4.9% of total soil organic carbon.

High Predictive Skill of Global Surface Temperature a Year Ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folland, C. K.; Colman, A.; Kennedy, J. J.; Knight, J.; Parker, D. E.; Stott, P.; Smith, D. M.; Boucher, O.

2011-12-01

We discuss the high skill of real-time forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead issued by the UK Met Office, and their scientific background. Although this is a forecasting and not a formal attribution study, we show that the main instrumental global annual surface temperature data sets since 1891 are structured consistently with a set of five physical forcing factors except during and just after the second World War. Reconstructions use a multiple application of cross validated linear regression to minimise artificial skill allowing time-varying uncertainties in the contribution of each forcing factor to global temperature to be assessed. Mean cross validated reconstructions for the data sets have total correlations in the range 0.93-0.95,interannual correlations in the range 0.72-0.75 and root mean squared errors near 0.06oC, consistent with observational uncertainties.Three transient runs of the HadCM3 coupled model for 1888-2002 demonstrate quite similar reconstruction skill from similar forcing factors defined appropriately for the model, showing that skilful use of our technique is not confined to observations. The observed reconstructions show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) likely contributed to the re-commencement of global warming between 1976 and 2010 and to global cooling observed immediately beforehand in 1965-1976. The slowing of global warming in the last decade is likely to be largely due to a phase-delayed response to the downturn in the solar cycle since 2001-2, with no net ENSO contribution. The much reduced trend in 2001-10 is similar in size to other weak decadal temperature trends observed since global warming resumed in the 1970s. The causes of variations in decadal trends can be mostly explained by variations in the strength of the forcing factors. Eleven real-time forecasts of global mean surface temperature for the year ahead for 2000-2010, based on broadly similar methods, provide an independent test of the ideas of this study. They had the high correlation and root mean square error skill levels compared to observations of 0.74 and 0.07oC respectively. Pseudo-forecasts for the same period reconstructed from somewhat improved forcing data used for this study had the slightly better correlation of 0.80 and root mean squared error of 0.05oC. Finally we compare the statistical forecasts with dynamical hindcasts and forecasts of global surface temperature a year ahead made by the Met Office DePreSys coupled model. The statistical and dynamical forecasts of global surface temperature for 2011 will be compared with preliminary verification data.

[Progresses of alpine treeline formation mechanism.

PubMed

Cong, Yu; He, Hong Shi; Gu, Xiao Nan; Xu, Wen Ru; Liu, Kai; Zong, Sheng Wei; Du, Hai Bo

2016-09-01

Alpine treelines represent one of the most distinct vegetation boundaries between canopy closed montane forest and treeless alpine vegetation. This transitional ecotone is highly sensitive to global and regional climate change and is considered as an ideal indicator of such changes. Treeline studies have evolved from morphological description to various hypotheses of treeline formation. Although individual hypothesis may provide reasonable explanation locally, a generalized hypothesis that is applicable on the global scale is still lacking. Temperature is considered the limited factor controlling the distribution of alpine treeline as low temperature restricts biochemical processes of tree growth. However, which particular biochemical processes are affected by low temperature remains unknown. This paper summarized the mechanisms of treeline formation with a focus on how low temperature affects photosynthesis characteristics, nutrient characteristics, non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) and antioxidant system. We also reviewed the key issues and future perspectives in treeline research.

Orbital ordering-driven ferromagnetism in LaCoO3 nanowires

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yang; Fan, Hong Jin

2010-09-01

The structure and magnetic properties of LaCoO3 nanowires are investigated as a function of the diameter in the temperature range of 5-300 K. Ferromagnetism below 85 K is observed in these nanowires, in agreement with the recent observations in LaCoO3 epitaxial thin films and nanoparticles. With the diameter of nanowires decreasing, the unit-cell volume increases, while both the global and local structural distortions lessen, accompanied by the gradual enhancement of ferromagnetism. The structure analysis reveals that LaCoO3 nanowires exhibit a monoclinic distorted structure with I2/a space group in the entire investigated temperature range. Different from bulks, there is no clear spin-state transition occurring with temperature in LaCoO3 nanowires. There exists a noticeable Jahn-Teller (JT) distortion in the nanowires even at the lowest temperature, namely, orbital-ordered JT active Co3+ ions with intermediate-spin (IS) state persist at low temperatures, which is not observed in bulk LaCoO3. These results indicate that the ferromagnetism in the nanowires is driven by the orbital ordering of IS Co3+.

Climatic controls on the global distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Feher, Laura C.; Griffith, Kereen; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Howard, Rebecca J.; Grace, James B.; Rogers, Kerrylee

2017-01-01

Mangrove forests are highly productive tidal saline wetland ecosystems found along sheltered tropical and subtropical coasts. Ecologists have long assumed that climatic drivers (i.e., temperature and rainfall regimes) govern the global distribution, structure, and function of mangrove forests. However, data constraints have hindered the quantification of direct climate-mangrove linkages in many parts of the world. Recently, the quality and availability of global-scale climate and mangrove data have been improving. Here, we used these data to better understand the influence of air temperature and rainfall regimes upon the distribution, abundance, and species richness of mangrove forests. Although our analyses identify global-scale relationships and thresholds, we show that the influence of climatic drivers is best characterized via regional range limit-specific analyses. We quantified climatic controls across targeted gradients in temperature and/or rainfall within 14 mangrove distributional range limits. Climatic thresholds for mangrove presence, abundance, and species richness differed among the 14 studied range limits. We identified minimum temperature-based thresholds for range limits in eastern North America, eastern Australia, New Zealand, eastern Asia, eastern South America, and southeast Africa. We identified rainfall-based thresholds for range limits in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, western South America, western Australia, Middle East, northwest Africa, east central Africa, and west central Africa. Our results show that in certain range limits (e.g., eastern North America, western Gulf of Mexico, eastern Asia), winter air temperature extremes play an especially important role. We conclude that rainfall and temperature regimes are both important in western North America, western Gulf of Mexico, and western Australia. With climate change, alterations in temperature and rainfall regimes will affect the global distribution, abundance, and diversity of mangrove forests. In general, warmer winter temperatures are expected to allow mangroves to expand poleward at the expense of salt marshes. However, dispersal and habitat availability constraints may hinder expansion near certain range limits. Along arid and semi-arid coasts, decreases or increases in rainfall are expected to lead to mangrove contraction or expansion, respectively. Collectively, our analyses quantify climate-mangrove linkages and improve our understanding of the expected global- and regional-scale effects of climate change upon mangrove forests.

Microhabitats in the tropics buffer temperature in a globally coherent manner

PubMed Central

Scheffers, Brett R.; Evans, Theodore A.; Williams, Stephen E.; Edwards, David P.

2014-01-01

Vegetated habitats contain a variety of fine-scale features that can ameliorate temperate extremes. These buffered microhabitats may be used by species to evade extreme weather and novel climates in the future. Yet, the magnitude and extent of this buffering on a global scale remains unknown. Across all tropical continents and using 36 published studies, we assessed temperature buffering from within microhabitats across various habitat strata and structures (e.g. soil, logs, epiphytes and tree holes) and compared them to non-buffered macro-scale ambient temperatures (the thermal control). Microhabitats buffered temperature by 3.9°C and reduced maximum temperatures by 3.5°C. Buffering was most pronounced in tropical lowlands where temperatures were most variable. With the expected increase in extreme weather events, microhabitats should provide species with a local layer of protection that is not captured by traditional climate assessments, which are typically derived from macro-scale temperatures (e.g. satellites). Our data illustrate the need for a next generation of predictive models that account for species' ability to move within microhabitats to exploit favourable buffered microclimates. PMID:25540160

New climatic targets against global warming: will the maximum 2 °C temperature rise affect estuarine benthic communities?

PubMed

Crespo, Daniel; Grilo, Tiago Fernandes; Baptista, Joana; Coelho, João Pedro; Lillebø, Ana Isabel; Cássio, Fernanda; Fernandes, Isabel; Pascoal, Cláudia; Pardal, Miguel Ângelo; Dolbeth, Marina

2017-06-20

The Paris Agreement signed by 195 countries in 2015 sets out a global action plan to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to remain below 2 °C. Under that premise, in situ experiments were run to test the effects of 2 °C temperature increase on the benthic communities in a seagrass bed and adjacent bare sediment, from a temperate European estuary. Temperature was artificially increased in situ and diversity and ecosystem functioning components measured after 10 and 30 days. Despite some warmness effects on the analysed components, significant impacts were not verified on macro and microfauna structure, bioturbation or in the fluxes of nutrients. The effect of site/habitat seemed more important than the effects of the warmness, with the seagrass habitat providing more homogenous results and being less impacted by warmness than the adjacent bare sediment. The results reinforce that most ecological responses to global changes are context dependent and that ecosystem stability depends not only on biological diversity but also on the availability of different habitats and niches, highlighting the role of coastal wetlands. In the context of the Paris Agreement it seems that estuarine benthic ecosystems will be able to cope if global warming remains below 2 °C.

Future hotspots of increasing temperature variability in tropical countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bathiany, S.; Dakos, V.; Scheffer, M.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

Resolving how climate variability will change in future is crucial to determining how challenging it will be for societies and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. We show that the largest increases in temperature variability - that are robust between state-of-the art climate models - are concentrated in tropical countries. On average, temperature variability increases by 15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa during austral summer, and by up to 10% °C-1 in the Sahel, India and South East Asia. Southern hemisphere changes can be explained by drying soils, whereas shifts in atmospheric structure play a more important role in the Northern hemisphere. These robust regional changes in variability are associated with monthly timescale events, whereas uncertain changes in inter-annual modes of variability make the response of global temperature variability uncertain. Our results suggest that regional changes in temperature variability will create new inequalities in climate change impacts between rich and poor nations.

Studies of planetary upper atmospheres through occultations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.

1982-01-01

The structure, composition, dynamics and energy balance of planetary upper atmospheres through interpretation of steller occultation data from Uranus is discussed. The wave-optical problem of modelling strong scintillation for arbitrary turbulent atmospheres is studied, as well as influence of turbulence. It was concluded that quasi-global features of atmospheric structure are accurately determined by numerical inversion. Horizontally inhomogeneous structures are filtered out and have little effect on temperature profiles.

Tropical forests are thermally buffered despite intensive selective logging.

PubMed

Senior, Rebecca A; Hill, Jane K; Benedick, Suzan; Edwards, David P

2018-03-01

Tropical rainforests are subject to extensive degradation by commercial selective logging. Despite pervasive changes to forest structure, selectively logged forests represent vital refugia for global biodiversity. The ability of these forests to buffer temperature-sensitive species from climate warming will be an important determinant of their future conservation value, although this topic remains largely unexplored. Thermal buffering potential is broadly determined by: (i) the difference between the "macroclimate" (climate at a local scale, m to ha) and the "microclimate" (climate at a fine-scale, mm to m, that is distinct from the macroclimate); (ii) thermal stability of microclimates (e.g. variation in daily temperatures); and (iii) the availability of microclimates to organisms. We compared these metrics in undisturbed primary forest and intensively logged forest on Borneo, using thermal images to capture cool microclimates on the surface of the forest floor, and information from dataloggers placed inside deadwood, tree holes and leaf litter. Although major differences in forest structure remained 9-12 years after repeated selective logging, we found that logging activity had very little effect on thermal buffering, in terms of macroclimate and microclimate temperatures, and the overall availability of microclimates. For 1°C warming in the macroclimate, temperature inside deadwood, tree holes and leaf litter warmed slightly more in primary forest than in logged forest, but the effect amounted to <0.1°C difference between forest types. We therefore conclude that selectively logged forests are similar to primary forests in their potential for thermal buffering, and subsequent ability to retain temperature-sensitive species under climate change. Selectively logged forests can play a crucial role in the long-term maintenance of global biodiversity. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Thermal Emission Spectrometer Results: Mars Atmospheric Thermal Structure and Aerosol Distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Michael D.; Pearl, John C.; Conrath, Barney J.; Christensen, Philip R.; Vondrak, Richard R. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Infrared spectra returned by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are well suited for retrieval of the thermal structure and the distribution of aerosols in the Martian atmosphere. Combined nadir- and limb-viewing spectra allow global monitoring of the atmosphere up to 0.01 mbar (65 km). We report here on the atmospheric thermal structure and the distribution of aerosols as observed thus far during the mapping phase of the Mars Global Surveyor mission. Zonal and temporal mean cross sections are used to examine the seasonal evolution of atmospheric temperatures and zonal winds during a period extending from northern hemisphere mid-summer through vernal equinox (L(sub s) = 104-360 deg). Temperature maps at selected pressure levels provide a characterization of planetary-scale waves. Retrieved atmospheric infrared dust opacity maps show the formation and evolution of regional dust storms during southern hemisphere summer. Response of the atmospheric thermal structure to the changing dust loading is observed. Maps of water-ice clouds as viewed in the thermal infrared are presented along with seasonal trends of infrared water-ice opacity. Uses of these observations for diagnostic studies of the dynamics of the atmosphere are discussed.

Thermoviscoplastic nonlinear constitutive relationships for structural analysis of high temperature metal matrix composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chamis, C. C.; Hopkins, D. A.

1985-01-01

A set of thermoviscoplastic nonlinear constitutive relationships (1VP-NCR) is presented. The set was developed for application to high temperature metal matrix composites (HT-MMC) and is applicable to thermal and mechanical properties. Formulation of the TVP-NCR is based at the micromechanics level. The TVP-NCR are of simple form and readily integrated into nonlinear composite structural analysis. It is shown that the set of TVP-NCR is computationally effective. The set directly predicts complex materials behavior at all levels of the composite simulation, from the constituent materials, through the several levels of composite mechanics, and up to the global response of complex HT-MMC structural components.

Shifting trends of temperature and biodiversity in the Eastern Bering Sea

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change is becoming an increasingly important ecological driver for oceanic and near-coastal ecosystems, potentially impacting both economically important fisheries stocks and ecosystem structure and function. In particular, Arctic systems are predicted to be espec...

Global population structure and adaptive evolution of aflatoxin-producing fungi

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We employed interspecific principal component analyses for six different categories (geography, species, precipitation, temperature, aflatoxin chemotype profile, and mating type) and inferred maximum likelihood phylogenies for six combined loci, including two aflatoxin cluster regions (aflM/alfN and...

The leading mode of observed and CMIP5 ENSO-residual sea surface temperatures and associated changes in Indo-Pacific climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Hoell. Andrew,

2015-01-01

WPWM circulation changes appear consistent with a Matsuno–Gill-like atmospheric response associated with an ocean–atmosphere dipole structure contrasting increased (decreased) western (eastern) Pacific precipitation, SSHs, and ocean temperatures. These changes have enhanced the Walker circulation and modulated weather on a global scale. An AGCM experiment and the WPWM of global boreal spring precipitation indicate significant drying across parts of East Africa, the Middle East, the southwestern United States, southern South America, and Asia. Changes in the WPWM have tracked closely with precipitation and the increase in drought frequency over the semiarid and water-insecure areas of East Africa, the Middle East, and southwest Asia.

Synthesis and structural characterization of the hexagonal anti-perovskite Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Green, Robert L., E-mail: rgreen@flpoly.org; Avdeev, Maxim; School of Chemistry, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006

The structural details of the ordered hexagonal oxyfluoride Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F prepared by solid-state synthesis using stoichiometric amounts of V{sub 2}O{sub 5}, CaCO{sub 3}, Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} and NaF were characterized using high-resolution neutron powder diffraction. The structural changes between 25 °C and 750 °C revealed that the two structural subunits in this material behave different when heated: there is an expansion of the face-shared FNa{sub 4}Ca{sub 2} octahedra while the VO{sub 4} tetrahedra due to increased thermal disorder reveal marginal bond contractions. Bond valences and the global instability index point to significant structural disorder at 750 °C. - Graphicalmore » abstract: The structure of the novel oxyfluoride Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F is studied at room temperature and high-temperatures. The structure can be viewed as layers of compression and elongation of polyhedral subunits, which change as a function of temperature. - Highlights: • The novel oxyfluoride, Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F, is synthesized via solid-state method. • High-resolution neutron diffraction data is used to analyze the structure of Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F. • Structural subunits exhibit expansion and contraction with increasing temperature. • Higher temperatures increase instability within the structure of Na{sub 2}CaVO{sub 4}F.« less

Assessing the drivers shaping global patterns of urban vegetation landscape structure.

PubMed

Dobbs, C; Nitschke, C; Kendal, D

2017-08-15

Vegetation is one of the main resources involve in ecosystem functioning and providing ecosystem services in urban areas. Little is known on the landscape structure patterns of vegetation existing in urban areas at the global scale and the drivers of these patterns. We studied the landscape structure of one hundred cities around the globe, and their relation to demography (population), socioeconomic factors (GDP, Gini Index), climate factors (temperature and rain) and topographic characteristics (altitude, variation in altitude). The data revealed that the best descriptors of landscape structure were amount, fragmentation and spatial distribution of vegetation. Populated cities tend to have less, more fragmented, less connected vegetation with a centre of the city with low vegetation cover. Results also provided insights on the influence of socioeconomics at a global scale, as landscape structure was more fragmented in areas that are economically unequal and coming from emergent economies. This study shows the effects of the social system and climate on urban landscape patterns that gives useful insights for the distribution in the provision of ecosystem services in urban areas and therefore the maintenance of human well-being. This information can support local and global policy and planning which is committing our cities to provide accessible and inclusive green space for all urban inhabitants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hartree-Fock values of energies, interaction constants, and atomic properties for excited states with 3 d N4 s0 and 3 d n4 s2 configurations of the negative ions, neutral atoms, and first four positive ions of the transition elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snyder, C. D.; Jastram, J. D.; Hitt, N. P.; Woffod, J.; Rice, K. C.

2012-12-01

Global climate-change models predict warmer stream temperatures, but there have been few studies that document such effects on stream communities. In Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, long-term temperature records indicate that stream temperatures show an increasing trend over the last 20 years and especially over the last 10 years. Stream temperatures have increased apparently due to atmospheric warming (i.e., stream temperatures are strongly correlated with regional air temperature patterns). Across 14 monitored stream sites, the median increase in maximum annual water temperature was 0.32oC per year for the 10-yr period between 2000 and 2009, and all 14 sites had positive trend slopes. Moreover, in contrast to water-chemistry trends, temperature trends showed no spatial structure and were consistent throughout the park. The observed warming is consistent with global warming projections, but other factors, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and forest defoliation due to gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), also may have contributed to warming trends. We summarized benthic macroinvertebrate community composition and structure from samples collected at 24 stream sites over the last 20 years and evaluated temporal patterns in the context of observed temperature trends. We found that a substantial amount of temporal variation in both taxonomic composition and community structure could be explained by temperature trends, even after accounting for water-chemistry changes. We observed significant declines in community diversity as well as a decline in the abundance of several stonefly (Plecoptera) taxa, a cold-water-dependent taxonomic group. We hypothesize that temperature-induced changes in the diversity and composition of macroinvertebrate communities could cascade to other faunal groups and other parts of the watershed. For instance, reduced abundances of stoneflies, an important component of the shredder functional group, may lead to reduced export of fine particulate organic matter from headwaters, disrupting food webs and reducing productivity to stream reaches farther downstream.

Effects of physical properties on thermo-fluids cavitating flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, T. R.; Wang, G. Y.; Huang, B.; Li, D. Q.; Ma, X. J.; Li, X. L.

2015-12-01

The aims of this paper are to study the thermo-fluid cavitating flows and to evaluate the effects of physical properties on cavitation behaviours. The Favre-averaged Navier-Stokes equations with the energy equation are applied to numerically investigate the liquid nitrogen cavitating flows around a NASA hydrofoil. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic parameter Σ is used to assess the thermodynamic effects on cavitating flows. The results indicate that the thermodynamic effects on the thermo-fluid cavitating flows significantly affect the cavitation behaviours, including pressure and temperature distribution, the variation of physical properties, and cavity structures. The thermodynamic effects can be evaluated by physical properties under the same free-stream conditions. The global sensitivity analysis of liquid nitrogen suggests that ρv, Cl and L significantly influence temperature drop and cavity structure in the existing numerical framework, while pv plays the dominant role when these properties vary with temperature. The liquid viscosity μl slightly affects the flow structure via changing the Reynolds number Re equivalently, however, it hardly affects the temperature distribution.

Microhabitats in the tropics buffer temperature in a globally coherent manner.

PubMed

Scheffers, Brett R; Evans, Theodore A; Williams, Stephen E; Edwards, David P

2014-12-01

Vegetated habitats contain a variety of fine-scale features that can ameliorate temperate extremes. These buffered microhabitats may be used by species to evade extreme weather and novel climates in the future. Yet, the magnitude and extent of this buffering on a global scale remains unknown. Across all tropical continents and using 36 published studies, we assessed temperature buffering from within microhabitats across various habitat strata and structures (e.g. soil, logs, epiphytes and tree holes) and compared them to non-buffered macro-scale ambient temperatures (the thermal control). Microhabitats buffered temperature by 3.9 °C and reduced maximum temperatures by 3.5 °C. Buffering was most pronounced in tropical lowlands where temperatures were most variable. With the expected increase in extreme weather events, microhabitats should provide species with a local layer of protection that is not captured by traditional climate assessments, which are typically derived from macro-scale temperatures (e.g. satellites). Our data illustrate the need for a next generation of predictive models that account for species' ability to move within microhabitats to exploit favourable buffered microclimates. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Global versus local mechanisms of temperature sensing in ion channels.

PubMed

Arrigoni, Cristina; Minor, Daniel L

2018-05-01

Ion channels turn diverse types of inputs, ranging from neurotransmitters to physical forces, into electrical signals. Channel responses to ligands generally rely on binding to discrete sensor domains that are coupled to the portion of the channel responsible for ion permeation. By contrast, sensing physical cues such as voltage, pressure, and temperature arises from more varied mechanisms. Voltage is commonly sensed by a local, domain-based strategy, whereas the predominant paradigm for pressure sensing employs a global response in channel structure to membrane tension changes. Temperature sensing has been the most challenging response to understand and whether discrete sensor domains exist for pressure and temperature has been the subject of much investigation and debate. Recent exciting advances have uncovered discrete sensor modules for pressure and temperature in force-sensitive and thermal-sensitive ion channels, respectively. In particular, characterization of bacterial voltage-gated sodium channel (BacNa V ) thermal responses has identified a coiled-coil thermosensor that controls channel function through a temperature-dependent unfolding event. This coiled-coil thermosensor blueprint recurs in other temperature sensitive ion channels and thermosensitive proteins. Together with the identification of ion channel pressure sensing domains, these examples demonstrate that "local" domain-based solutions for sensing force and temperature exist and highlight the diversity of both global and local strategies that channels use to sense physical inputs. The modular nature of these newly discovered physical signal sensors provides opportunities to engineer novel pressure-sensitive and thermosensitive proteins and raises new questions about how such modular sensors may have evolved and empowered ion channel pores with new sensibilities.

Integrated Modeling Study of the Effects of the Magnetospheric Forcing on the Jovian Ionosphere-Thermosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bogan, Denis (Technical Monitor); Waite, J. Hunter

2005-01-01

The Jupiter Thermosphere General Circulation Model (JTGCM) calculates the global dynamical structure of Jupiter s thermosphere self-consistently with its global thermal structure and composition. The main heat source that drives the thermospheric flow is high-latitude Joule heating. A secondary source of heating is the auroral process of particle precipitation. Global simulations of Jovian thermospheric dynamics indicate strong neutral outflows from the auroral ovals with velocities up to approx.2 km/s and subsequent convergence and downwelling at the Jovian equator. Such circulation is shown to be an important process for transporting significant amounts of auroral energy t o equatorial latitudes and for regulating the global heat budget in a manner consistent with the high thermospheric temperatures observed by the Galileo probe. Adiabatic compression of the neutral atmosphere resulting from downward motion is an important source of equatorial heating (< 0.06 microbar). The adiabatic heating continues to dominate between 0.06 and 0.2 microbar, but with an addition of comparable heating due to horizontal advection induced by the meridional flow. Thermal conduction plays an important role in transporting heat down to lower altitudes (>0.2microbar) where it is balanced by the cooling associated with the wind transport processes. Interestingly, we find that radiative cooling caused by H3(+), CH4, and C2H2 emissions does not play a significant role in interpreting the Galileo temperature profile.

Temperature-Dependent Conformational Properties of Human Neuronal Calcium Sensor-1 Protein Revealed by All-Atom Simulations.

PubMed

Zhu, Yuzhen; Ma, Buyong; Qi, Ruxi; Nussinov, Ruth; Zhang, Qingwen

2016-04-14

Neuronal calcium sensor-1 (NCS-1) protein has orthologues from Saccharomyces cerevisiae to human with highly conserved amino acid sequences. NCS-1 is an important factor controlling the animal's response to temperature change. This leads us to investigate the temperature effects on the conformational dynamics of human NCS-1 at 310 and 316 K by all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and dynamic community network analysis. Four independent 500 ns MD simulations show that secondary structure content at 316 K is similar to that at 310 K, whereas the global protein structure is expanded. Loop 3 (L3) adopts an extended state occuping the hydrophobic crevice, and the number of suboptimal communication paths between residue D176 and V190 is reduced at 316 K. The dynamic community network analysis suggests that the interdomain correlation is weakened, and the intradomain coupling is strengthened at 316 K. The elevated temperature reduces the number of the salt bridges, especially in C-domain. This study suggests that the elevated temperature affects the conformational dynamics of human NCS-1 protein. Comparison of the structural dynamics of R102Q mutant and Δ176-190 truncated NCS-1 suggests that the structural and dynamical response of NCS-1 protein to elevated temperature may be one of its intrinsic functional properties.

Global diversity patterns in sandy beach macrofauna: a biogeographic analysis.

PubMed

Barboza, Francisco Rafael; Defeo, Omar

2015-09-28

Unlike the advances generated on land, the knowledge of global diversity patterns in marine ecosystems is limited to a small number of studies. For sandy beaches, which dominate the world's ocean shores, previous meta-analyses highlighted the role of beach morphodynamics in explaining species richness patterns. Oceanographic variables and historical processes have not been considered, even though they could be main predictors of community structure. Our work, based on 256 sandy beaches around the world, analysed species richness considering for the first time temperature, salinity and primary productivity. Biogeographic units (realms, provinces and ecoregions) were used to incorporate historical factors in modelling processes. Ecoregions, which implicitly include isolation and coastal complexity among other historical geographic factors, best represented trends in species richness worldwide. Temperature was a main predictor of species richness, which increased from temperate to tropical sandy beaches. Species richness increased with tide range and towards wide beaches with gentle slopes and fine grains, which is consistent with the hypothesis that habitat availability has an important role in structuring sandy beach communities. The role of temperature and habitat availability suggests that ocean warming and sea level rise could affect the distribution of obligate species living in these narrow ecosystems.

Global diversity patterns in sandy beach macrofauna: a biogeographic analysis

PubMed Central

Rafael Barboza, Francisco; Defeo, Omar

2015-01-01

Unlike the advances generated on land, the knowledge of global diversity patterns in marine ecosystems is limited to a small number of studies. For sandy beaches, which dominate the world’s ocean shores, previous meta-analyses highlighted the role of beach morphodynamics in explaining species richness patterns. Oceanographic variables and historical processes have not been considered, even though they could be main predictors of community structure. Our work, based on 256 sandy beaches around the world, analysed species richness considering for the first time temperature, salinity and primary productivity. Biogeographic units (realms, provinces and ecoregions) were used to incorporate historical factors in modelling processes. Ecoregions, which implicitly include isolation and coastal complexity among other historical geographic factors, best represented trends in species richness worldwide. Temperature was a main predictor of species richness, which increased from temperate to tropical sandy beaches. Species richness increased with tide range and towards wide beaches with gentle slopes and fine grains, which is consistent with the hypothesis that habitat availability has an important role in structuring sandy beach communities. The role of temperature and habitat availability suggests that ocean warming and sea level rise could affect the distribution of obligate species living in these narrow ecosystems. PMID:26411697

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolf, Amelia A.; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C.

2017-01-01

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology—the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Flowering phenology shifts in response to biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Wolf, Amelia A; Zavaleta, Erika S; Selmants, Paul C

2017-03-28

Observational studies and experimental evidence agree that rising global temperatures have altered plant phenology-the timing of life events, such as flowering, germination, and leaf-out. Other large-scale global environmental changes, such as nitrogen deposition and altered precipitation regimes, have also been linked to changes in flowering times. Despite our increased understanding of how abiotic factors influence plant phenology, we know very little about how biotic interactions can affect flowering times, a significant knowledge gap given ongoing human-caused alteration of biodiversity and plant community structure at the global scale. We experimentally manipulated plant diversity in a California serpentine grassland and found that many plant species flowered earlier in response to reductions in diversity, with peak flowering date advancing an average of 0.6 days per species lost. These changes in phenology were mediated by the effects of plant diversity on soil surface temperature, available soil N, and soil moisture. Peak flowering dates were also more dispersed among species in high-diversity plots than expected based on monocultures. Our findings illustrate that shifts in plant species composition and diversity can alter the timing and distribution of flowering events, and that these changes to phenology are similar in magnitude to effects induced by climate change. Declining diversity could thus contribute to or exacerbate phenological changes attributed to rising global temperatures.

Atmospheric and surface temperatures and airborne dust amounts during late southern summer from Mariner 9 IRIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santee, M.; Crisp, D.

1992-01-01

The temperature structure and dust loading of the Martian atmosphere are investigated using thermal emission spectra recorded in 1972 by the Mariner 9 infrared interferometer spectrometer (IRIS). The analysis focuses on a subset of data consisting of approximately 2400 spectra obtained near the end of the southern summer season (L(sub s) equal to 343 deg to 348 deg), after the global dust storm had largely abated and airborne dust amounts were subsiding to background values. Simultaneous retrieval of the vertical distribution of both atmospheric temperature and dust optical depth is accomplished through an iterative procedure which is performed on each individual spectrum. The atmospheric transmittances are calculated using a Voigt quasi-random band model, which includes absorption by CO2 and dust, but neglects the effects of multiple scattering. Vertical profiles of temperature and dust optical depth are obtained using modified algorithms. These profiles are used to construct global maps of temperature and dust optical depth as functions of latitude (+/- 90 deg), altitude (approximately 0-50 km), and local time of day.

Decadal power in land air temperatures: Is it statistically significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thejll, Peter A.

2001-12-01

The geographical distribution and properties of the well-known 10-11 year signal in terrestrial temperature records is investigated. By analyzing the Global Historical Climate Network data for surface air temperatures we verify that the signal is strongest in North America and is similar in nature to that reported earlier by R. G. Currie. The decadal signal is statistically significant for individual stations, but it is not possible to show that the signal is statistically significant globally, using strict tests. In North America, during the twentieth century, the decadal variability in the solar activity cycle is associated with the decadal part of the North Atlantic Oscillation index series in such a way that both of these signals correspond to the same spatial pattern of cooling and warming. A method for testing statistical results with Monte Carlo trials on data fields with specified temporal structure and specific spatial correlation retained is presented.

A concept for global crop forecasting. [using microwave radiometer satellites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lovelace, U. M.; Wright, R. L.

1983-01-01

The mission, instrumentation, and design concepts for microwave radiometer satellites for continuous crop condition forecasting and monitoring on a global basis are described. Soil moisture affects both crop growth and the dielectric properties of the soil, and can be quantified by analysis of reflected radiance passively received by orbiting spacecraft. A dedicated satellite reading a swath 200 km across, with 1 km and 1 K temperature resolution, could track the time-varying changes of solid moisture, sea ice, and water surface temperature. Launched by the Shuttle into an interim orbit, a boost would place the satellite in a 400 or 700 km orbit. Resolution requirements indicate a 45-725 m diam antenna, with 70 dB gain, operating at frequencies of 1.08, 2.03, and 4.95 GHz to ensure atmospheric transparency. Alternative structural concepts include either double-layer tetrahedral or single-layer geodesic trusses as the basic structural members. An analysis of the electrostatic positioning of the parabolic antenna membrane is outlined.

High Temperature Composite Analyzer (HITCAN) demonstration manual, version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singhal, S. N; Lackney, J. J.; Murthy, P. L. N.

1993-01-01

This manual comprises a variety of demonstration cases for the HITCAN (HIgh Temperature Composite ANalyzer) code. HITCAN is a general purpose computer program for predicting nonlinear global structural and local stress-strain response of arbitrarily oriented, multilayered high temperature metal matrix composite structures. HITCAN is written in FORTRAN 77 computer language and has been configured and executed on the NASA Lewis Research Center CRAY XMP and YMP computers. Detailed description of all program variables and terms used in this manual may be found in the User's Manual. The demonstration includes various cases to illustrate the features and analysis capabilities of the HITCAN computer code. These cases include: (1) static analysis, (2) nonlinear quasi-static (incremental) analysis, (3) modal analysis, (4) buckling analysis, (5) fiber degradation effects, (6) fabrication-induced stresses for a variety of structures; namely, beam, plate, ring, shell, and built-up structures. A brief discussion of each demonstration case with the associated input data file is provided. Sample results taken from the actual computer output are also included.

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001–2015

PubMed Central

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-01-01

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as ‘the Roof of the World’ and ‘Asia’s water towers’, exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001–2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc. PMID:28742066

A comprehensive data set of lake surface water temperature over the Tibetan Plateau derived from MODIS LST products 2001-2015.

PubMed

Wan, Wei; Li, Huan; Xie, Hongjie; Hong, Yang; Long, Di; Zhao, Limin; Han, Zhongying; Cui, Yaokui; Liu, Baojian; Wang, Cunguang; Yang, Wenting

2017-07-25

Lake surface water temperature (LSWT) is sensitive to long-term changes in thermal structure of lakes and regional air temperature. In the context of global climate change, recent studies showed a significant warming trend of LSWT based on investigating 291 lakes (71% are large lakes, ≥50 km 2 each) globally. However, further efforts are needed to examine variation in LSWT at finer regional spatial and temporal scales. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as 'the Roof of the World' and 'Asia's water towers', exerts large influences on and is sensitive to regional and even global climates. Aiming to examine detailed changing patterns and potential driven mechanisms for temperature variations of lakes across the TP region, this paper presents the first comprehensive data set of 15-year (2001-2015) nighttime and daytime LSWT for 374 lakes (≥10 km 2 each), using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Land Surface Temperature (LST) products as well as four lake boundary shapefiles (i.e., 2002, 2005, 2009, and 2014) derived from Landsat/CBERS/GaoFen-1 satellite images. The data set itself reveals significant information on LSWT and its changes over the TP and is an indispensable variable for numerous applications related to climate change, water budget analysis (particularly lake evaporation), water storage changes, glacier melting and permafrost degradation, etc.

Range-Wide Latitudinal and Elevational Temperature Gradients for the World's Terrestrial Birds: Implications under Global Climate Change

PubMed Central

La Sorte, Frank A.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

2014-01-01

Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity of species to utilize these gradients under climate change. PMID:24852009

Aircraft remote sensing of phytoplankton spatial patterns during the 1989 Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS) North Atlantic bloom experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoder, James A.; Hoge, Frank E.

1991-01-01

Mesoscale phytoplankton chlorophyll variability near the Joint Global Ocean Flux study sites along the 20 W meridian at 34 N, 47 N, and 59 N is discussed. The NASA P-3 aircraft and the Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) system provides remote sensing support for the North Atlantic Bloom Experiment. The principal instrument of the AOL system is the blue-green laser that stimulates fluorescence from photoplankton chlorophyll, the principal photosynthetic pigment. Other instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft include up- and down-looking spectrometers, PRT-5 for infrared measurements to determine sea surface temperature, and a system to deploy and record AXBTs to measure subsurface temperature structure.

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE PAGES

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

2015-12-17

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

The effect of large-scale model time step and multiscale coupling frequency on cloud climatology, vertical structure, and rainfall extremes in a superparameterized GCM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sungduk; Pritchard, Michael S.

The effect of global climate model (GCM) time step—which also controls how frequently global and embedded cloud resolving scales are coupled—is examined in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model ver 3.0. Systematic bias reductions of time-mean shortwave cloud forcing (~10 W/m 2) and longwave cloud forcing (~5 W/m 2) occur as scale coupling frequency increases, but with systematically increasing rainfall variance and extremes throughout the tropics. An overarching change in the vertical structure of deep tropical convection, favoring more bottom-heavy deep convection as a global model time step is reduced may help orchestrate these responses. The weak temperature gradient approximation ismore » more faithfully satisfied when a high scale coupling frequency (a short global model time step) is used. These findings are distinct from the global model time step sensitivities of conventionally parameterized GCMs and have implications for understanding emergent behaviors of multiscale deep convective organization in superparameterized GCMs. Lastly, the results may also be useful for helping to tune them.« less

Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christensen, Andrew B.

1995-01-01

This report covers the activities performed under NAS5-32572. The results of those activities are included in this Final Report. TIMED Science Objectives: (1) To determine the temperature, density, and wind structure of the MLTI (mixed layer thermal inertia), including the seasonal and latitudinal variations; and (2) To determine the relative importance of the various radiative, chemical, electrodynamical, and dynamical sources and sinks of energy for the thermal structure of the MLTI. GUVI Science Goals: (1) Determine the spatial and temporal variations of temperature and constituent densities in the lower thermosphere; and (2) Determine the importance of auroral energy sources and solar EUV (extreme ultraviolet) to the energy balance of the region.

Polar ocean stratification in a cold climate.

PubMed

Sigman, Daniel M; Jaccard, Samuel L; Haug, Gerald H

2004-03-04

The low-latitude ocean is strongly stratified by the warmth of its surface water. As a result, the great volume of the deep ocean has easiest access to the atmosphere through the polar surface ocean. In the modern polar ocean during the winter, the vertical distribution of temperature promotes overturning, with colder water over warmer, while the salinity distribution typically promotes stratification, with fresher water over saltier. However, the sensitivity of seawater density to temperature is reduced as temperature approaches the freezing point, with potential consequences for global ocean circulation under cold climates. Here we present deep-sea records of biogenic opal accumulation and sedimentary nitrogen isotopic composition from the Subarctic North Pacific Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These records indicate that vertical stratification increased in both northern and southern high latitudes 2.7 million years ago, when Northern Hemisphere glaciation intensified in association with global cooling during the late Pliocene epoch. We propose that the cooling caused this increased stratification by weakening the role of temperature in polar ocean density structure so as to reduce its opposition to the stratifying effect of the vertical salinity distribution. The shift towards stratification in the polar ocean 2.7 million years ago may have increased the quantity of carbon dioxide trapped in the abyss, amplifying the global cooling.

Global surface temperatures and the atmospheric electrical circuit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin

1993-01-01

To monitor future global temperature trends, it would be extremely useful if parameters nonlinearly related to surface temperature could be found, thereby amplifying any warming signal that may exist. Evidence that global thunderstorm activity is nonlinearly related to diurnal, seasonal and interannual temperature variations is presented. Since global thunderstorm activity is also well correlated with the earth's ionospheric potential, it appears that variations of ionospheric potential, that can be measured at a single location, may be able to supply valuable information regarding global surface temperature fluctuations. The observations presented enable a prediction that a 1 percent increase in global surface temperatures may result in a 20 percent increase in ionospheric potential.

Conformational Entropy from Slowly Relaxing Local Structure Analysis of 15N-H Relaxation in Proteins: Application to Pheromone Binding to MUP-I in the 283-308 K Temperature Range.

PubMed

Žídek, Lukáš; Meirovitch, Eva

2017-09-21

The slowly relaxing local structure (SRLS) approach is applied to 15 N-H relaxation from the major urinary protein I (MUP-I), and its complex with pheromone 2-sec-butyl-4,5-dihydrothiazol. The objective is to elucidate dynamics, and binding-induced changes in conformational entropy. Experimental data acquired previously in the 283-308 K temperature range are used. The N-H bond is found to reorient globally with correlation time, τ 1,0 , and locally with correlation time, τ 2,0 , where τ 1,0 ≫ τ 2,0 . The local motion is restricted by the potential u = -c 0 2 D 00 2 , where D 00 2 is the Wigner rotation matrix element for L = 2, K = 0, and c 0 2 evaluates the strength of the potential. u yields straightforwardly the order parameter, ⟨D 00 2 ⟩, and the conformational entropy, S k , both given by P eq = exp(-u). The deviation of the local ordering/local diffusion axis from the N-H bond, given by the angle β, is also determined. We find that c 0 2 ≅ 18 ± 4 and τ 2,0 = 0-170 ps for ligand-free MUP-I, whereas c 0 2 ≅ 15 ± 4 and τ 2,0 = 20-270 ps for ligand-bound MUP-I. β is in the 0-10° range. c 0 2 and τ 2,0 decrease, whereas β increases, when the temperature is increased from 283 to 308 K. Thus, SRLS provides physically well-defined structure-related (c 0 2 and ⟨D 00 2 ⟩), motion-related (τ 2,0 ), geometry-related (β), and binding-related (S k ) local parameters, and their temperature-dependences. Intriguingly, upon pheromone binding the conformational entropy of MUP-I decreases at high temperature and increases at low temperature. The very same experimental data were analyzed previously with the model-free (MF) method which yielded "global" (in this context, "relating to the entire 283-308 K range") amplitude (S 2 ) and rate (τ e ) of the local motion, and a phenomenological exchange term (R ex ). S 2 is found to decrease (implying implicitly "global" increase in S k ) upon pheromone binding.

Recent variability of the tropical tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wuke; Matthes, Katja; Schmidt, Torsten; Neef, Lisa

2013-12-01

The recent variability of the tropopause temperature and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) are investigated with Global Positioning System Radio Occultation data and simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Over the past decade (2001-2011) the data show an increase of 0.8 K in the tropopause temperature and a decrease of 0.4 K in the strength of the tropopause inversion layer in the tropics, meaning that the vertical temperature gradient has declined, and therefore that the stability above the tropopause has weakened. WACCM simulations with finer vertical resolution show a more realistic TIL structure and variability. Model simulations show that the increased tropopause temperature and the weaker tropopause inversion layer are related to weakened upwelling in the tropics. Such changes in the thermal structure of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere may have important implications for climate, such as a possible rise in water vapor in the lower stratosphere.

The structure of Venus' middle atmosphere and ionosphere.

PubMed

Pätzold, M; Häusler, B; Bird, M K; Tellmann, S; Mattei, R; Asmar, S W; Dehant, V; Eidel, W; Imamura, T; Simpson, R A; Tyler, G L

2007-11-29

The atmosphere and ionosphere of Venus have been studied in the past by spacecraft with remote sensing or in situ techniques. These early missions, however, have left us with questions about, for example, the atmospheric structure in the transition region from the upper troposphere to the lower mesosphere (50-90 km) and the remarkably variable structure of the ionosphere. Observations become increasingly difficult within and below the global cloud deck (<50 km altitude), where strong absorption greatly limits the available investigative spectrum to a few infrared windows and the radio range. Here we report radio-sounding results from the first Venus Express Radio Science (VeRa) occultation season. We determine the fine structure in temperatures at upper cloud-deck altitudes, detect a distinct day-night temperature difference in the southern middle atmosphere, and track day-to-day changes in Venus' ionosphere.

Real-Time Vertical Temperature, and Velocity Profiles from a Wave Glider

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

Ocean in September 2010 during the ITOP experiment. ADOS platforms are also deployed by the NOAA funded Global Drifter Program in the north Atlantic...class of instrument is termed ADOS (Autonomous Drifting Ocean Station) and several variants exist. The ADOS-A, which measures temperature and...during the hurricane season to measure the thermal structure of the ocean ahead of storms and in their wakes. Both the ADOS-A and the M- ADOS-A are

Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere

PubMed Central

Santer, Benjamin D.; Painter, Jeffrey F.; Bonfils, Céline; Mears, Carl A.; Solomon, Susan; Wigley, Tom M. L.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Doutriaux, Charles; Gillett, Nathan P.; Taylor, Karl E.; Thorne, Peter W.; Wentz, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger “total” natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. PMID:24043789

Correlation between the shear-speed structure and thickness of the mantle transition zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lebedev, Sergei; Chevrot, Sébastien; van der Hilst, R. D.

2003-04-01

The 410 and 660 km seismic discontinuities that bound the mantle transition zone (TZ) are attributed to phase transformations in olivine structure. This implies that variations in TZ thickness ( HTZ) should correlate with those in TZ temperature. Pertinent seismic evidence has so far been ambiguous, however. We measure converted-wave ( Pd s) differential times tdiff= tP660 s- tP410 s in SE Asia and Australia and compare them with S-velocity ( βTZ) estimates from regional tomographic models. Both tdiff and βTZ vary on a scale of a few hundred kilometers. Inferred variations in HTZ are up to ±30 km over length scales larger than 500 km, implying ±200 K thermal heterogeneity if the effect of composition can be neglected. tdiff and βTZ correlate strongly; the linear dependence of HTZ on the average temperature within the TZ is consistent with olivine Clapeyron slopes. We also show that this relationship holds on a global-scale as well, provided that the scalelengths and uncertainties of the variations in tdiff and βTZ are taken into account. These results confirm that the transformations in olivine structure give rise to the 410 and 660 km discontinuities globally.

Short- and long-term conditioning of a temperate marine diatom community to acidification and warming.

PubMed

Tatters, Avery O; Roleda, Michael Y; Schnetzer, Astrid; Fu, Feixue; Hurd, Catriona L; Boyd, Philip W; Caron, David A; Lie, Alle A Y; Hoffmann, Linn J; Hutchins, David A

2013-01-01

Ocean acidification and greenhouse warming will interactively influence competitive success of key phytoplankton groups such as diatoms, but how long-term responses to global change will affect community structure is unknown. We incubated a mixed natural diatom community from coastal New Zealand waters in a short-term (two-week) incubation experiment using a factorial matrix of warming and/or elevated pCO2 and measured effects on community structure. We then isolated the dominant diatoms in clonal cultures and conditioned them for 1 year under the same temperature and pCO2 conditions from which they were isolated, in order to allow for extended selection or acclimation by these abiotic environmental change factors in the absence of interspecific interactions. These conditioned isolates were then recombined into 'artificial' communities modelled after the original natural assemblage and allowed to compete under conditions identical to those in the short-term natural community experiment. In general, the resulting structure of both the unconditioned natural community and conditioned 'artificial' community experiments was similar, despite differences such as the loss of two species in the latter. pCO2 and temperature had both individual and interactive effects on community structure, but temperature was more influential, as warming significantly reduced species richness. In this case, our short-term manipulative experiment with a mixed natural assemblage spanning weeks served as a reasonable proxy to predict the effects of global change forcing on diatom community structure after the component species were conditioned in isolation over an extended timescale. Future studies will be required to assess whether or not this is also the case for other types of algal communities from other marine regimes.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Stepwise positional-orientational order and the multicritical-multistructural global phase diagram of the s=3/2 Ising model from renormalization-group theory.

PubMed

Yunus, Çağın; Renklioğlu, Başak; Keskin, Mustafa; Berker, A Nihat

2016-06-01

The spin-3/2 Ising model, with nearest-neighbor interactions only, is the prototypical system with two different ordering species, with concentrations regulated by a chemical potential. Its global phase diagram, obtained in d=3 by renormalization-group theory in the Migdal-Kadanoff approximation or equivalently as an exact solution of a d=3 hierarchical lattice, with flows subtended by 40 different fixed points, presents a very rich structure containing eight different ordered and disordered phases, with more than 14 different types of phase diagrams in temperature and chemical potential. It exhibits phases with orientational and/or positional order. It also exhibits quintuple phase transition reentrances. Universality of critical exponents is conserved across different renormalization-group flow basins via redundant fixed points. One of the phase diagrams contains a plastic crystal sequence, with positional and orientational ordering encountered consecutively as temperature is lowered. The global phase diagram also contains double critical points, first-order and critical lines between two ordered phases, critical end points, usual and unusual (inverted) bicritical points, tricritical points, multiple tetracritical points, and zero-temperature criticality and bicriticality. The four-state Potts permutation-symmetric subspace is contained in this model.

Predicting lower mantle heterogeneity from 4-D Earth models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flament, Nicolas; Williams, Simon; Müller, Dietmar; Gurnis, Michael; Bower, Dan J.

2016-04-01

The Earth's lower mantle is characterized by two large-low-shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs), approximately ˜15000 km in diameter and 500-1000 km high, located under Africa and the Pacific Ocean. The spatial stability and chemical nature of these LLSVPs are debated. Here, we compare the lower mantle structure predicted by forward global mantle flow models constrained by tectonic reconstructions (Bower et al., 2015) to an analysis of five global tomography models. In the dynamic models, spanning 230 million years, slabs subducting deep into the mantle deform an initially uniform basal layer containing 2% of the volume of the mantle. Basal density, convective vigour (Rayleigh number Ra), mantle viscosity, absolute plate motions, and relative plate motions are varied in a series of model cases. We use cluster analysis to classify a set of equally-spaced points (average separation ˜0.45°) on the Earth's surface into two groups of points with similar variations in present-day temperature between 1000-2800 km depth, for each model case. Below ˜2400 km depth, this procedure reveals a high-temperature cluster in which mantle temperature is significantly larger than ambient and a low-temperature cluster in which mantle temperature is lower than ambient. The spatial extent of the high-temperature cluster is in first-order agreement with the outlines of the African and Pacific LLSVPs revealed by a similar cluster analysis of five tomography models (Lekic et al., 2012). Model success is quantified by computing the accuracy and sensitivity of the predicted temperature clusters in predicting the low-velocity cluster obtained from tomography (Lekic et al., 2012). In these cases, the accuracy varies between 0.61-0.80, where a value of 0.5 represents the random case, and the sensitivity ranges between 0.18-0.83. The largest accuracies and sensitivities are obtained for models with Ra ≈ 5 x 107, no asthenosphere (or an asthenosphere restricted to the oceanic domain), and a basal layer ˜ 4% denser than ambient mantle. Increasing convective vigour (Ra ≈ 5 x 108) or decreasing the density of the basal layer decreases both the accuracy and sensitivity of the predicted lower mantle structure. References: D. J. Bower, M. Gurnis, N. Flament, Assimilating lithosphere and slab history in 4-D Earth models. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 238, 8-22 (2015). V. Lekic, S. Cottaar, A. Dziewonski, B. Romanowicz, Cluster analysis of global lower mantle tomography: A new class of structure and implications for chemical heterogeneity. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 357, 68-77 (2012).

High temperature composite analyzer (HITCAN) user's manual, version 1.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lackney, J. J.; Singhal, S. N.; Murthy, P. L. N.; Gotsis, P.

1993-01-01

This manual describes 'how-to-use' the computer code, HITCAN (HIgh Temperature Composite ANalyzer). HITCAN is a general purpose computer program for predicting nonlinear global structural and local stress-strain response of arbitrarily oriented, multilayered high temperature metal matrix composite structures. This code combines composite mechanics and laminate theory with an internal data base for material properties of the constituents (matrix, fiber and interphase). The thermo-mechanical properties of the constituents are considered to be nonlinearly dependent on several parameters including temperature, stress and stress rate. The computation procedure for the analysis of the composite structures uses the finite element method. HITCAN is written in FORTRAN 77 computer language and at present has been configured and executed on the NASA Lewis Research Center CRAY XMP and YMP computers. This manual describes HlTCAN's capabilities and limitations followed by input/execution/output descriptions and example problems. The input is described in detail including (1) geometry modeling, (2) types of finite elements, (3) types of analysis, (4) material data, (5) types of loading, (6) boundary conditions, (7) output control, (8) program options, and (9) data bank.

A study of self organized criticality in ion temperature gradient mode driven gyrokinetic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavridis, M.; Isliker, H.; Vlahos, L.; Görler, T.; Jenko, F.; Told, D.

2014-10-01

An investigation on the characteristics of self organized criticality (Soc) in ITG mode driven turbulence is made, with the use of various statistical tools (histograms, power spectra, Hurst exponents estimated with the rescaled range analysis, and the structure function method). For this purpose, local non-linear gyrokinetic simulations of the cyclone base case scenario are performed with the GENE software package. Although most authors concentrate on global simulations, which seem to be a better choice for such an investigation, we use local simulations in an attempt to study the locally underlying mechanisms of Soc. We also study the structural properties of radially extended structures, with several tools (fractal dimension estimate, cluster analysis, and two dimensional autocorrelation function), in order to explore whether they can be characterized as avalanches. We find that, for large enough driving temperature gradients, the local simulations exhibit most of the features of Soc, with the exception of the probability distribution of observables, which show a tail, yet they are not of power-law form. The radial structures have the same radial extent at all temperature gradients examined; radial motion (transport) though appears only at large temperature gradients, in which case the radial structures can be interpreted as avalanches.

A study of self organized criticality in ion temperature gradient mode driven gyrokinetic turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mavridis, M.; Isliker, H.; Vlahos, L.

2014-10-15

An investigation on the characteristics of self organized criticality (Soc) in ITG mode driven turbulence is made, with the use of various statistical tools (histograms, power spectra, Hurst exponents estimated with the rescaled range analysis, and the structure function method). For this purpose, local non-linear gyrokinetic simulations of the cyclone base case scenario are performed with the GENE software package. Although most authors concentrate on global simulations, which seem to be a better choice for such an investigation, we use local simulations in an attempt to study the locally underlying mechanisms of Soc. We also study the structural properties ofmore » radially extended structures, with several tools (fractal dimension estimate, cluster analysis, and two dimensional autocorrelation function), in order to explore whether they can be characterized as avalanches. We find that, for large enough driving temperature gradients, the local simulations exhibit most of the features of Soc, with the exception of the probability distribution of observables, which show a tail, yet they are not of power-law form. The radial structures have the same radial extent at all temperature gradients examined; radial motion (transport) though appears only at large temperature gradients, in which case the radial structures can be interpreted as avalanches.« less

Synthesis of zinc oxide nanostructures on graphene/glass substrate by electrochemical deposition: effects of current density and temperature.

PubMed

Hambali, Nur Ashikyn; Yahaya, Hafizal; Mahmood, Mohamad Rusop; Terasako, Tomoaki; Hashim, Abdul Manaf

2014-01-01

The electrochemical growth of zinc oxide (ZnO) nanostructures on graphene on glass using zinc nitrate hexahydrate was studied. The effects of current densities and temperatures on the morphological, structural, and optical properties of the ZnO structures were studied. Vertically aligned nanorods were obtained at a low temperature of 75°C, and the diameters increased with current density. Growth temperature seems to have a strong effect in generating well-defined hexagonal-shape nanorods with a smooth top edge surface. A film-like structure was observed for high current densities above -1.0 mA/cm(2) and temperatures above 80°C due to the coalescence between the neighboring nanorods with large diameter. The nanorods grown at a temperature of 75°C with a low current density of -0.1 mA/cm(2) exhibited the highest density of 1.45 × 10(9) cm(-2). X-ray diffraction measurements revealed that the grown ZnO crystallites were highly oriented along the c-axis. The intensity ratio of the ultraviolet (UV) region emission to the visible region emission, I UV/I VIS, showed a decrement with the current densities for all grown samples. The samples grown at the current density below -0.5 mA/cm(2) showed high I UV/I VIS values closer to or higher than 1.0, suggesting their fewer structural defects. For all the ZnO/graphene structures, the high transmittance up to 65% was obtained at the light wavelength of 550 nm. Structural and optical properties of the grown ZnO structures seem to be effectively controlled by the current density rather than the growth temperature. ZnO nanorod/graphene hybrid structure on glass is expected to be a promising structure for solar cell which is a conceivable candidate to address the global need for an inexpensive alternative energy source.

The Implications of 3D Thermal Structure on 1D Atmospheric Retrieval

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blecic, Jasmina; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Greene, Thomas

2017-10-01

Using the atmospheric structure from a 3D global radiation-hydrodynamic simulation of HD 189733b and the open-source Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code, we investigate the difference between the secondary-eclipse temperature structure produced with a 3D simulation and the best-fit 1D retrieved model. Synthetic data are generated by integrating the 3D models over the Spitzer, the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and the James Web Space Telescope (JWST) bandpasses, covering the wavelength range between 1 and 11 μm where most spectroscopically active species have pronounced features. Using the data from different observing instruments, we present detailed comparisons between the temperature-pressure profiles recovered by BART and those from the 3D simulations. We calculate several averages of the 3D thermal structure and explore which particular thermal profile matches the retrieved temperature structure. We implement two temperature parameterizations that are commonly used in retrieval to investigate different thermal profile shapes. To assess which part of the thermal structure is best constrained by the data, we generate contribution functions for our theoretical model and each of our retrieved models. Our conclusions are strongly affected by the spectral resolution of the instruments included, their wavelength coverage, and the number of data points combined. We also see some limitations in each of the temperature parametrizations, as they are not able to fully match the complex curvatures that are usually produced in hydrodynamic simulations. The results show that our 1D retrieval is recovering a temperature and pressure profile that most closely matches the arithmetic average of the 3D thermal structure. When we use a higher resolution, more data points, and a parametrized temperature profile that allows more flexibility in the middle part of the atmosphere, we find a better match between the retrieved temperature and pressure profile and the arithmetic average. The Spitzer and HST simulated observations sample deep parts of the planetary atmosphere and provide fewer constraints on the temperature and pressure profile, while the JWST observations sample the middle part of the atmosphere, providing a good match with the middle and most complex part of the arithmetic average of the 3D temperature structure.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate.

PubMed

Noever, D A; Brittain, A; Matsos, H C; Baskaran, S; Obenhuber, D

1996-01-01

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. Previous biome maps either remain unchanging or shift without taking into account climatic feedbacks such as radiation and temperature. We develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed temperature trend and order of magnitude change. The model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution that minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search, an artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The method is to adjust biome areas subject to a constant global temperature and total surface area constraint. For regulating global temperature, oceans are found to dominate continental biomes. Algal beds are significant radiative levers as are other carbon intensive biomes including estuaries and tropical deciduous forests. To hold global temperature constant over the next 70 years this simulation requires that deserts decrease and forested areas increase. The effect of biome change on global temperature is revealed as a significant forecasting factor.

Temperature sensitivity of gaseous elemental mercury in the active layer of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost.

PubMed

Ci, Zhijia; Peng, Fei; Xue, Xian; Zhang, Xiaoshan

2018-07-01

Soils represent the single largest mercury (Hg) reservoir in the global environment, indicating that a tiny change of Hg behavior in soil ecosystem could greatly affect the global Hg cycle. Climate warming is strongly altering the structure and functions of permafrost and then would influence the Hg cycle in permafrost soils. However, Hg biogeochemistry in climate-sensitive permafrost is poorly investigated. Here we report a data set of soil Hg (0) concentrations in four different depths of the active layer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau permafrost. We find that soil Hg (0) concentrations exhibited a strongly positive and exponential relationship with temperature and showed different temperature sensitivity under the frozen and unfrozen condition. We conservatively estimate that temperature increases following latest temperature scenarios of the IPCC could result in up to a 54.9% increase in Hg (0) concentrations in surface permafrost soils by 2100. Combining the simultaneous measurement of air-soil Hg (0) exchange, we find that enhanced Hg (0) concentrations in upper soils could favor Hg (0) emissions from surface soil. Our findings indicate that Hg (0) emission could be stimulated by permafrost thawing in a warmer world. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NDE standards for high temperature materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vary, Alex

1991-01-01

High temperature materials include monolithic ceramics for automotive gas turbine engines and also metallic/intermetallic and ceramic matrix composites for a range of aerospace applications. These are materials that can withstand extreme operating temperatures that will prevail in advanced high-efficiency gas turbine engines. High temperature engine components are very likely to consist of complex composite structures with three-dimensionality interwoven and various intermixed ceramic fibers. The thermomechanical properties of components made of these materials are actually created in-place during processing and fabrication stages. The complex nature of these new materials creates strong incentives for exact standards for unambiguous evaluations of defects and microstructural characteristics. NDE techniques and standards that will ultimately be applicable to production and quality control of high temperature materials and structures are still emerging. The needs range from flaw detection to below 100 micron levels in monolithic ceramics to global imaging of fiber architecture and matrix densification anomalies in composites. The needs are different depending on the processing stage, fabrication method, and nature of the finished product. The standards are discussed that must be developed in concert with advances in NDE technology, materials processing research, and fabrication development. High temperature materials and structures that fail to meet stringent specifications and standards are unlikely to compete successfully either technologically or in international markets.

Thermostability in rubredoxin and its relationship to mechanical rigidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rader, A. J.

2010-03-01

The source of increased stability in proteins from organisms that thrive in extreme thermal environments is not well understood. Previous experimental and theoretical studies have suggested many different features possibly responsible for such thermostability. Many of these thermostabilizing mechanisms can be accounted for in terms of structural rigidity. Thus a plausible hypothesis accounting for this remarkable stability in thermophilic enzymes states that these enzymes have enhanced conformational rigidity at temperatures below their native, functioning temperature. Experimental evidence exists to both support and contradict this supposition. We computationally investigate the relationship between thermostability and rigidity using rubredoxin as a case study. The mechanical rigidity is calculated using atomic models of homologous rubredoxin structures from the hyperthermophile Pyrococcus furiosus and mesophile Clostridium pasteurianum using the FIRST software. A global increase in structural rigidity (equivalently a decrease in flexibility) corresponds to an increase in thermostability. Locally, rigidity differences (between mesophilic and thermophilic structures) agree with differences in protection factors.

An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2013-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

Mantle heat flow and thermal structure of the northern block of Southern Granulite Terrain, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manglik, Ajay

2006-07-01

Continental shield regions are normally characterized by low-to-moderate mantle heat flow. Archaean Dharwar craton of the Indian continental shield also follows the similar global pattern. However, some recent studies have inferred significantly higher mantle heat flow for the Proterozoic northern block of Southern Granulite Terrain (SGT) in the immediate vicinity of the Dharwar craton by assuming that the radiogenic elements depleted exposed granulites constitute the 45-km-thick crust. In this study, we use four-layered model of the crustal structure revealed by integrated geophysical studies along a geo-transect in this region to estimate the mantle heat flow. The results indicate that: (i) the mantle heat flow of the northern block of SGT is 17 ± 2 mW/m 2, supporting the global pattern, and (ii) the lateral variability of 10-12 mW/m 2 in the surface heat flow within the block is of crustal origin. In terms of temperature, the Moho beneath the eastern Salem-Namakkal region appears to be at 80-100 °C higher temperature than that beneath the western Avinashi region.

Waves in the Martian Atmosphere: Results from MGS Radio Occultations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flasar, F. M.; Hinson, D. P.; Tyler, G. L.

1999-01-01

Temperatures retrieved from Mars Global Surveyor radio occultations have been searched for evidence of waves. Emphasis has been on the initial series of occultations between 29 deg N and 64 deg S, obtained during the early martian southern summer, L(sub s) = 264 deg - 308 deg. The profiles exhibit an undulatory behavior that is suggestive of vertically propagating waves. wavelengths approximately 10 km are often dominant, but structure on smaller scales is evident. The undulatory structure is most pronounced between latitudes 29 deg N and 10 deg S, usually in regions of "interesting" topography, e.g., in the Tharsis region and near the edge of Syrtis Major. Several temperature profiles, particularly within 30 deg of the equator, exhibit lapse rates that locally become superadiabatic near the 0.4-mbar level or at higher altitudes. This implies that the waves are "breaking" and depositing horizontal momentum into the atmosphere. Such a deposition may play an important role in modulating the atmospheric winds, and characterizing the spatial and temporal distribution of these momentum transfers can provide important clues to understanding how the global circulation is maintained.

Gyrokinetic global three-dimensional simulations of linear ion-temperature-gradient modes in Wendelstein 7-X

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kornilov, V.; Kleiber, R.; Hatzky, R.; Villard, L.; Jost, G.

2004-06-01

Using a global approach for solving an ion gyrokinetic model in three-dimensional geometry the linear stability and structure of ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) modes in the configuration of the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) [G. Grieger et al., in Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research 1990 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1991), Vol. 3, p. 525.] is studied. The time evolution of electrostatic perturbations is solved as an initial value problem with a particle-in-cell δf method. The vacuum magnetohydrodynamic equilibrium is calculated by the code VMEC [S. P. Hirshman and D. K. Lee, Comput. Phys. Commun. 39, 161 (1986)]. In this work the most unstable ITG mode in W7-X is presented. This mode has a pronounced ballooning-type structure; however, it is not tokamak-like. A driving mechanism analysis using the energy transfer shows that the contribution of curvature effects is non-negligible. The growth rate and the mixing-length estimate for transport are compared with those for ITG modes found in axisymmetric geometries.

Global warming and the regional persistence of a temperate-zone insect (Tenodera sinensis)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rooney, T.P.; Smith, A.T.; Hurd, L.E.

Models based on the paleoecological record predict that animals in temperate regions will respond to global warming by migrating poleward to remain within their temperature tolerance ranges. The effect of global warming on invertebrates is of great concern because of their critical role in ecosystem structure and function. Migration poses a problem for many species because of their limited dispersal abilities. The life cycle of a typical temperature zone univoltine insect. Tenodera sinensis (Mantodea: Mantidae) is constrained by degree-days per season: too few prevent maturation before the killing frost in the autumn; too many allow egg hatch before a killingmore » frost. We used field and laboratory observation on the life history and ecology of this species to predict the effect of global warming on the regional distribution of this insect by the end of the next century. Based on the simplified, best-case, biological assumptions of our model, the geographical range of T. sinensis in eastern North America would be compressed toward the northern part of its present contiguous regional distribution. This and other univoltine temperate species with long maturation periods and low vagility could face regional extinction if global warming predictions are accurate. 61 refs., 3 figs.« less

Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

2016-12-01

Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This work was partially supported by National Science Foundation grants EAR-1416964, EAR-1204685, and IIS-1526860. The model code is available at https://github.com/JohnNay/predMarket [1] A Leiserowitz, E Maibach, & C Roser-Renouf, Global Warming's Six Americas (Yale U., 2009). [2] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications.

PubMed

Nguyen, Khanh Dung T; Morley, Simon A; Lai, Chien-Houng; Clark, Melody S; Tan, Koh Siang; Bates, Amanda E; Peck, Lloyd S

2011-01-01

Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.

Global heating distributions for January 1979 calculated from GLA assimilated and simulated model-based datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Lenzen, Allen J.; Johnson, Donald R.

1991-01-01

This study surveys the large-scale distribution of heating for January 1979 obtained from five sources of information. Through intercomparison of these distributions, with emphasis on satellite-derived information, an investigation is conducted into the global distribution of atmospheric heating and the impact of observations on the diagnostic estimates of heating derived from assimilated datasets. The results indicate a substantial impact of satellite information on diagnostic estimates of heating in regions where there is a scarcity of conventional observations. The addition of satellite data provides information on the atmosphere's temperature and wind structure that is important for estimation of the global distribution of heating and energy exchange.

Reconstruction of Arctic surface temperature in past 100 years using DINEOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qiyi; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong

2015-04-01

Global annual mean surface temperature has not risen apparently since 1998, which is described as global warming hiatus in recent years. However, measuring of temperature variability in Arctic is difficult because of large gaps in coverage of Arctic region in most observed gridded datasets. Since Arctic has experienced a rapid temperature change in recent years that called polar amplification, and temperature risen in Arctic is faster than global mean, the unobserved temperature in central Arctic will result in cold bias in both global and Arctic temperature measurement compared with model simulations and reanalysis datasets. Moreover, some datasets that have complete coverage in Arctic but short temporal scale cannot show Arctic temperature variability for long time. Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Function (DINEOF) were applied to fill the coverage gap of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP 250km smooth) product in Arctic with IABP dataset which covers entire Arctic region between 1979 and 1998, and to reconstruct Arctic temperature in 1900-2012. This method provided temperature reconstruction in central Arctic and precise estimation of both global and Arctic temperature variability with a long temporal scale. Results have been verified by extra independent station records in Arctic by statistical analysis, such as variance and standard deviation. The result of reconstruction shows significant warming trend in Arctic in recent 30 years, as the temperature trend in Arctic since 1997 is 0.76°C per decade, compared with 0.48°C and 0.67°C per decade from 250km smooth and 1200km smooth of GISTEMP. And global temperature trend is two times greater after using DINEOF. The discrepancies above stress the importance of fully consideration of temperature variance in Arctic because gaps of coverage in Arctic cause apparent cold bias in temperature estimation. The result of global surface temperature also proves that global warming in recent years is not as slow as thought.

Real-time Assimilation of Altimeter Derived Synthetic Profiles Into a Global version of the Naval Research Laboratory's Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, R. C.; Barron, C. N.; Fox, D. N.; Smedstad, L. F.

2001-12-01

A global implementation of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM), developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at Stennis Space Center is currently running in real-time and is planned for transition to the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) in 2002. The model encompasses the open ocean to 5 m depth on a curvilinear global model grid with 1/8 degree grid spacing at 45N, extending from 80 S to a complete arctic cap with grid singularities mapped into Canada and Russia. Vertically, the model employs 41 sigma-z levels with sigma in the upper-ocean and coastal regions and z in the deeper ocean. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) provides 6-hourly wind stresses and heat fluxes for forcing, while the operational Modular Ocean Data Assimilation System (MODAS) provides the background climatology and tools for data pre-processing. Operationally available sea surface temperature (SST) and altimetry (SSH) data are assimilated into the NAVOCEANO global 1/8 degree MODAS 2-D analysis and the 1/16 degree Navy Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) to provide analyses and forecasts of SSH and SST. The 2-D SSH and SST nowcast fields are used as input to the MODAS synthetic climatology database to yield three-dimensional fields of synthetic temperature and salinity for assimilation into global NCOM. The synthetic profiles are weighted higher at depth in the assimilation process to allow the numerical model to properly develop the mixed-layer structure driven by the real-time atmospheric forcing. Global NCOM nowcasts and forecasts provide a valuable resource for rapid response to the varied and often unpredictable operational requests for 3-dimensional fields of ocean temperature, salinity, and currents. In some cases, the resolution of the global product is sufficient for guidance. In cases requiring higher resolution, the global product offers a quick overview of local circulation and provides initial and boundary conditions for higher resolution coastal models that may be more specialized for a particular task or domain. Nowcast and forecast results are presented globally and in selected areas of interest and model results are compared with historical and concurrent observations and analyses.

Structural Integration of Sensors/Actuators by Laser Beam Melting for Tailored Smart Components

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Töppel, Thomas; Lausch, Holger; Brand, Michael; Hensel, Eric; Arnold, Michael; Rotsch, Christian

2018-03-01

Laser beam melting (LBM), an additive laser powder bed fusion technology, enables the structural integration of temperature-sensitive sensors and actuators in complex monolithic metallic structures. The objective is to embed a functional component inside a metal part without losing its functionality by overheating. The first part of this paper addresses the development of a new process chain for bonded embedding of temperature-sensitive sensor/actuator systems by LBM. These systems are modularly built and coated by a multi-material/multi-layer thermal protection system of ceramic and metallic compounds. The characteristic of low global heat input in LBM is utilized for the functional embedding. In the second part, the specific functional design and optimization for tailored smart components with embedded functionalities are addressed. Numerical and experimental validated results are demonstrated on a smart femoral hip stem.

FeRh ground state and martensitic transformation

DOE PAGES

Zarkevich, Nikolai A.; Johnson, Duane D.

2018-01-09

Cubic B2 FeRh exhibits a metamagnetic transition [(111) antiferromagnet (AFM) to ferromagnet (FM)] around 353 K and remains structurally stable at higher temperatures. However, the calculated zero-Kelvin phonons of AFM FeRh exhibit imaginary modes at M points in the Brillouin zone, indicating a premartensitic instability, which is a precursor to a martensitic transformation at low temperatures. Combining electronic-structure calculations with ab initio molecular dynamics, conjugate gradient relaxation, and the solid-state nudged-elastic band methods, we predict that AFM B2 FeRh becomes unstable at ambient pressure and transforms without a barrier to an AFM(111) orthorhombic (martensitic) ground state below 90±10K. In conclusion,more » we also consider competing structures, in particular, a tetragonal AFM(100) phase that is not the global ground state, as proposed, but a constrained solution.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zarkevich, Nikolai A.; Johnson, Duane D.

Cubic B2 FeRh exhibits a metamagnetic transition [(111) antiferromagnet (AFM) to ferromagnet (FM)] around 353 K and remains structurally stable at higher temperatures. However, the calculated zero-Kelvin phonons of AFM FeRh exhibit imaginary modes at M points in the Brillouin zone, indicating a premartensitic instability, which is a precursor to a martensitic transformation at low temperatures. Combining electronic-structure calculations with ab initio molecular dynamics, conjugate gradient relaxation, and the solid-state nudged-elastic band methods, we predict that AFM B2 FeRh becomes unstable at ambient pressure and transforms without a barrier to an AFM(111) orthorhombic (martensitic) ground state below 90±10K. In conclusion,more » we also consider competing structures, in particular, a tetragonal AFM(100) phase that is not the global ground state, as proposed, but a constrained solution.« less

Biological soil crusts: Diminutive communities of potential global importance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrenberg, Scott; Tucker, Colin; Reed, Sasha C.

2017-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread, diverse communities of cyanobacteria, fungi, lichens, and mosses living on soil surfaces, primarily in drylands. Biocrusts can locally govern primary production, soil fertility, hydrology, and surface energy balance, with considerable variation in these functions across alternate community states. Further, these communities have been implicated in Earth system functioning via potential influences on global biogeochemistry and climate. Biocrusts are easily destroyed by disturbances and appear to be exceptionally vulnerable to warming temperatures and altered precipitation inputs, signaling possible losses of dryland functions with global change. Despite these concerns, we lack sufficient spatiotemporal data on biocrust function, cover, and community structure to confidently assess their ecological roles across the extensive dryland biome. Here, we present the case for cross-scale research and restoration efforts coupled with remote-sensing and modeling approaches that improve our collective understanding of biocrust responses to global change and the ecological roles of these diminutive communities at global scales.

Processes governing the temperature structure of the tropical tropopause layer (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.

2013-12-01

The tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is among the most important but least understood regions of the global climate system. The TTL sets the boundary condition for atmospheric tracers entering the stratosphere. Specifically, TTL temperatures control stratospheric water vapor concentrations, which play a key role in the radiative budget of the entire stratosphere with implications for tropospheric and surface climate. The TTL shows a curious stratification structure: temperature continues to decrease beyond the level of main convective outflow (~200 hPa) up to the cold point tropopause (~100 hPa), but TTL lapse rates are smaller than in the upper troposphere. A cold point tropopause well separated from the level of main convective outflow requires TTL cooling which may be the result of: 1) the detailed radiative balance in the TTL, 2) large-scale upwelling (forced by extratropical or tropical waves), 3) the large-scale hydrostatic response aloft deep convective heating, 4) overshooting convection, 5) breaking gravity waves. All of these processes may act in isolation or combine to produce the observed TTL temperature structure. Here, a critical discussion of these processes / mechanisms and their role in lifting the cold point tropopause above the level of main convective outflow is presented. Results are based on idealized radiative-convective equilibrium model simulations, contrasting single-column with cloud-resolving simulations, as well on simulations with chemistry-climate models and reanalysis data. While all of the above processes are capable of producing a TTL-like region in isolation, their combination is found to produce important feedbacks. In particular, both water vapor and ozone are found to have strong radiative effects on TTL temperatures, highlighting important feedbacks between transport circulations setting temperatures and tracer structures and the resulting tracer structures in turn affecting temperatures.

A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. Anthony; Bowman, Kevin W.; Lee, Meemong; Turner, Alexander J.; Schroeder, Ronny; Worden, John R.; Weidner, Richard; McDonald, Kyle C.; Jacob, Daniel J.

2017-06-01

Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources of uncertainty in the global atmospheric methane (CH4) budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production in waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates of global wetland CH4 emissions and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down CH4 emission estimates. Here we construct a global wetland CH4 emission model ensemble for use in atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0). Our 0.5° × 0.5° resolution model ensemble is based on satellite-derived surface water extent and precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle models and a data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis) and three temperature dependence parameterizations for the period 2009-2010; an extended ensemble subset based solely on precipitation and the data-constrained terrestrial carbon cycle analysis is derived for the period 2001-2015. We incorporate the mean of the full and extended model ensembles into GEOS-Chem and compare the model against surface measurements of atmospheric CH4; the model performance (site-level and zonal mean anomaly residuals) compares favourably against published wetland CH4 emissions scenarios. We find that uncertainties in carbon decomposition rates and the wetland extent together account for more than 80 % of the dominant uncertainty in the timing, magnitude and seasonal variability in wetland CH4 emissions, although uncertainty in the temperature CH4 : C dependence is a significant contributor to seasonal variations in mid-latitude wetland CH4 emissions. The combination of satellite, carbon cycle models and temperature dependence parameterizations provides a physically informed structural a priori uncertainty that is critical for top-down estimates of wetland CH4 fluxes. Specifically, our ensemble can provide enhanced information on the prior CH4 emission uncertainty and the error covariance structure, as well as a means for using posterior flux estimates and their uncertainties to quantitatively constrain the biogeochemical process controls of global wetland CH4 emissions.

Similar Estimates of Temperature Impacts on Global Wheat Yield by Three Independent Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Muller, Christoph; Ewart, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.;

Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bing; Asseng, Senthold; Müller, Christoph; Ewert, Frank; Elliott, Joshua; Lobell, David B.; Martre, Pierre; Ruane, Alex C.; Wallach, Daniel; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Alderman, Phillip D.; Anothai, Jakarat; Basso, Bruno; Biernath, Christian; Cammarano, Davide; Challinor, Andy; Deryng, Delphine; Sanctis, Giacomo De; Doltra, Jordi; Fereres, Elias; Folberth, Christian; Garcia-Vila, Margarita; Gayler, Sebastian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Hunt, Leslie A.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Jabloun, Mohamed; Jones, Curtis D.; Kersebaum, Kurt C.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Koehler, Ann-Kristin; Kumar, Soora Naresh; Nendel, Claas; O'Leary, Garry J.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ottman, Michael J.; Palosuo, Taru; Prasad, P. V. Vara; Priesack, Eckart; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Reynolds, Matthew; Rezaei, Ehsan E.; Rötter, Reimund P.; Schmid, Erwin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Shcherbak, Iurii; Stehfest, Elke; Stöckle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Streck, Thilo; Supit, Iwan; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter; Waha, Katharina; Wall, Gerard W.; Wang, Enli; White, Jeffrey W.; Wolf, Joost; Zhao, Zhigan; Zhu, Yan

2016-12-01

The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify `method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.

Atmospheric thermal structure and cloud features in the southern hemisphere of Venus as retrieved from VIRTIS/VEX radiation measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haus, R.; Kappel, D.; Arnold, G.

2014-04-01

Thermal structure and cloud features in the atmosphere of Venus are investigated using spectroscopic nightside measurements recorded by the Visible and InfraRed Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) aboard ESA’s Venus Express mission in the moderate resolution infrared mapping channel (M-IR, 1-5 μm). New methodical approaches and retrieval results for the northern hemisphere have been recently described by Haus et al. (Haus, R., Kappel, D., Arnold, G. [2013]. Planet. Space Sci. 89, 77-101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2013.09.020). Now, southern hemisphere maps of mesospheric temperature and cloud parameter fields are presented that cover variations with altitude, latitude, local time, and mission time. Measurements from the entire usable data archive are utilized comprising radiation spectra recorded during eight Venus solar days between April 2006 and October 2008. Zonal averages of retrieved temperature altitude profiles in both hemispheres are very similar and give evidence of global N-S axial symmetry of atmospheric temperature structure. Cold collar and warmer polar vortex regions exhibit the strongest temperature variability with standard deviations up to 8.5 K at 75°S and 63 km altitude compared with about 1.0 K at low and mid latitudes above 75 km. The mesospheric temperature field strongly depends on local time. At altitudes above about 75 km, the atmosphere is warmer in the second half of night, while the dawn side at lower altitudes is usually colder than the dusk side by about 8 K. Local minimum temperature of 220 K occurs at 03:00 h local time at 65 km and 60°S. Temperature standard deviation at polar latitudes is particularly large near midnight. Temperature variability with solar longitude is forced by solar thermal tides with a dominating diurnal component. The influence of observed cloud parameter changes on retrieved mesospheric zonal average temperature structure is moderate and does not exceed 2-3 K at altitudes between 60 and 75 km. The mesospheric thermal structure was essentially stable with Julian date between 2006 and 2008. Global N-S axial symmetry is also observed in cloud structures. Cloud top altitude at 1 μm slowly decreases from 71 km at the equator to 70 km at 45-50° and rapidly drops poleward of 50°. It reaches 61 km over both poles. Average particle size in the vertical cloud column increases from mid latitudes toward the poles and also toward the equator resulting in minimum and maximum zonal average cloud opacities of about 32 and 42 and a planetary average of 36.5 at 1 μm. Zonal averages of cloud features are similar at different solar days, but variations with local time are very complex and inseparably associated with the superrotation of the clouds.

Global sea level linked to global temperature

PubMed Central

Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

2009-01-01

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100. PMID:19995972

Corrosion Behavior Of Potential Structural Materials For Use In Nitrate Salts Based Solar Thermal Power Plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Summers, Kodi

The increasing global demand for electricity is straining current resources of fossil fuels and placing increased pressure on the environment. The implementation of alternative sources of energy is paramount to satisfying global electricity demand while reducing reliance on fossil fuels and lessen the impact on the environment. Concentrated solar power (CSP) plants have the ability to harness solar energy at an efficiency not yet achieved by other technologies designed to convert solar energy to electricity. The problem of intermittency in power production seen with other renewable technologies can be virtually eliminated with the use of molten salt as a heat transfer fluid in CSP plants. Commercial and economic success of CSP plants requires operating at maximum efficiency and capacity which requires high temperature and material reliability. This study investigates the corrosion behavior of structural alloys and electrochemical testing in molten nitrate salts at three temperatures common to CSP plants. Corrosion behavior was evaluated using gravimetric and inductively-coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) analysis. Surface morphology was studied using scanning electron microscopy. Surface oxide structure and chemistry was characterized using X-ray diffraction, Raman spectroscopy, energy dispersive spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Electrochemical behavior of candidate structural alloys Alloy 4130, austenitic stainless steel 316, and super-austenitic Incoloy 800H was evaluated using potentiodynamic polarization characteristics. It was observed that electrochemical evaluation of these candidate materials correlates well with the corrosion behavior observed from gravimetric and ICP-OES analysis. This study identifies that all three alloys exhibited acceptable corrosion in 300°C molten salt while elevated salt temperatures require the more corrosion resistant alloys, stainless steel 316 and 800H. Characterization of the sample surfaces revealed the presence of spinels at lower temperatures, while Fe2O3 was the dominant iron oxide at higher temperatures for each alloy. It is recommended that accelerated corrosion testing be investigated further to evaluate alloys in other molten salt systems considered for utilization in concentrated solar power plants.

Spatial scaling of bacterial community diversity at shallow hydrothermal vents: a global comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pop Ristova, P.; Hassenrueck, C.; Molari, M.; Fink, A.; Bühring, S. I.

2016-02-01

Marine shallow hydrothermal vents are extreme environments, often characterized by discharge of fluids with e.g. high temperatures, low pH, and laden with elements toxic to higher organisms. They occur at continental margins around the world's oceans, but represent fragmented, isolated habitats of locally small areal coverage. Microorganisms contribute the main biomass at shallow hydrothermal vent ecosystems and build the basis of the food chain by autotrophic fixation of carbon both via chemosynthesis and photosynthesis, occurring simultaneously. Despite their importance and unique capacity to adapt to these extreme environments, little is known about the spatial scales on which the alpha- and beta-diversity of microbial communities vary at shallow vents, and how the geochemical habitat heterogeneity influences shallow vent biodiversity. Here for the first time we investigated the spatial scaling of microbial biodiversity patterns and their interconnectivity at geochemically diverse shallow vents on a global scale. This study presents data on the comparison of bacterial community structures on large (> 1000 km) and small (0.1 - 100 m) spatial scales as derived from ARISA and Illumina sequencing. Despite the fragmented global distribution of shallow hydrothermal vents, similarity of vent bacterial communities decreased with geographic distance, confirming the ubiquity of distance-decay relationship. Moreover, at all investigated vents, pH was the main factor locally structuring these communities, while temperature influenced both the alpha- and beta-diversity.

The Frenkel Line: a direct experimental evidence for the new thermodynamic boundary

DOE PAGES

Bolmatov, Dima; Zhernenkov, Mikhail; Zav’yalov, Dmitry; ...

2015-11-05

We report that supercritical fluids play a significant role in elucidating fundamental aspects of liquid matter under extreme conditions. They have been extensively studied at pressures and temperatures relevant to various industrial applications. However, much less is known about the structural behaviour of supercritical fluids and no structural crossovers have been observed in static compression experiments in any temperature and pressure ranges beyond the critical point. The structure of supercritical state is currently perceived to be uniform everywhere on the pressure-temperature phase diagram, and to change only in a monotonic way even moving around the critical point, not only alongmore » isotherms or isobars. Conversely, we observe structural crossovers for the first time in a deeply supercritical sample through diffraction measurements in a diamond anvil cell and discover a new thermodynamic boundary on the pressure-temperature diagram. We explain the existence of these crossovers in the framework of the phonon theory of liquids using molecular dynamics simulations. The obtained results are of prime importance since they imply a global reconsideration of the mere essence of the supercritical phase. Furthermore, this discovery may pave the way to new unexpected applications and to the exploration of exotic behaviour of confined fluids relevant to geo- and planetary sciences.« less

Overview of the Temperature Response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere to Solar Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beig, Gufran; Scheer, Juergen; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Keckhut, Philippe

2008-01-01

The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.

LaAlO3: A substrate material with unusual ferroelastic properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kustov, S.; Liubimova, Iu.; Salje, E. K. H.

2018-01-01

Twin boundary dynamics in LaAlO3 is associated with non-linear anelasticity. Ultrasonic studies of non-linear twin boundary dynamics between 80 and 520 K show that cooling substrates from temperatures near the ferroelastic transition at 813 K generate three characteristic thermal regimes with different non-linear dynamics. Twin boundaries are initially highly mobile. Anelastic strain amplitudes versus stress are power law distributed with an exponent of 2.5. No de-pinning was found down to elastic strain amplitudes of ɛ0 ˜ 10-7. The power law is gradually replaced between 370 K and 280 K by few large singularities (jerks) due to massive rearrangements of the domain structure for ɛ0 larger than ca. 5 × 10-5. At lower temperatures, the domain structure is pinned with well-defined thresholds for de-pinning. The de-pinning is not accompanied by global rearrangements of twin patterns below room temperature. Unexpectedly, the low-temperature critical de-pinning strain amplitude decreases with decreasing temperature, which may indicate an additional, so far unknown phase transition near 40 K.

Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, K. B.; Ma, Y.; Tan, X. L.; Shen, X. Y.; Liu, G.; Li, Z. L.; Chen, J. M.; Xia, L.

2017-01-01

Global surface temperature change is one of the most important aspects in global climate change research. In this study, in order to overcome shortcomings of traditional observation methods in meteorology, a new method is proposed to calculate global mean surface temperature based on remote sensing data. We found that (1) the global mean surface temperature was close to 14.35 °C from 2001 to 2012, and the warmest and coldest surface temperatures of the global in the recent twelve years occurred in 2005 and 2008, respectively; (2) the warmest and coldest surface temperatures on the global land surface occurred in 2005 and 2001, respectively, and on the global ocean surface in 2010 and 2008, respectively; and (3) in recent twelve years, although most regions (especially the Southern Hemisphere) are warming, global warming is yet controversial because it is cooling in the central and eastern regions of Pacific Ocean, northern regions of the Atlantic Ocean, northern regions of China, Mongolia, southern regions of Russia, western regions of Canada and America, the eastern and northern regions of Australia, and the southern tip of Africa. The analysis of daily and seasonal temperature change indicates that the temperature change is mainly caused by the variation of orbit of celestial body. A big data model based on orbit position and gravitational-magmatic change of celestial body with the solar or the galactic system should be built and taken into account for climate and ecosystems change at a large spatial-temporal scale.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback.

PubMed

Jump, Alistair S; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-09-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jump, Alistair S.; Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Greenwood, Sarah; Allen, Craig D.; Kitzberger, Thomas; Fensham, Rod; Martínez-Vilalta, Jordi; Lloret, Francisco

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

SPICAM: studying the global structure and composition of the Martian atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertaux, J.-L.; Fonteyn, D.; Korablev, O.; Chassefre, E.; Dimarellis, E.; Dubois, J. P.; Hauchecorne, A.; Lefèvre, F.; Cabane, M.; Rannou, P.; Levasseur-Regourd, A. C.; Cernogora, G.; Quemerais, E.; Hermans, C.; Kockarts, G.; Lippens, C.; de Maziere, M.; Moreau, D.; Muller, C.; Neefs, E.; Simon, P. C.; Forget, F.; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.; Moroz, V. I.; Rodin, A.; Sandel, B.; Stern, A.

2004-08-01

The SPICAM (SPectroscopy for the Investigation of the Characteristics of the Atmosphere of Mars) instrument consists of two spectrometers. The UV spectrometer addresses key issues about ozone and its H2O coupling, aerosols, the atmospheric vertical temperature structure and the ionosphere. The IR spectrometer is aimed primarily at H2O and abundances and vertical profiling of H2O and aerosols. SPICAM's density/temperature profiles will aid the development of meteorological and dynamical atmospheric models from the surface up to 160 km altitude. UV observations of the upper atmosphere will study the ionosphere and its direct interaction with the solar wind. They will also allow a better understanding of escape mechanisms, crucial for insight into the long-term evolution of the atmosphere.

Warming alters community size structure and ecosystem functioning

PubMed Central

Dossena, Matteo; Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Grey, Jonathan; Montoya, José M.; Perkins, Daniel M.; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy

2012-01-01

Global warming can affect all levels of biological complexity, though we currently understand least about its potential impact on communities and ecosystems. At the ecosystem level, warming has the capacity to alter the structure of communities and the rates of key ecosystem processes they mediate. Here we assessed the effects of a 4°C rise in temperature on the size structure and taxonomic composition of benthic communities in aquatic mesocosms, and the rates of detrital decomposition they mediated. Warming had no effect on biodiversity, but altered community size structure in two ways. In spring, warmer systems exhibited steeper size spectra driven by declines in total community biomass and the proportion of large organisms. By contrast, in autumn, warmer systems had shallower size spectra driven by elevated total community biomass and a greater proportion of large organisms. Community-level shifts were mirrored by changes in decomposition rates. Temperature-corrected microbial and macrofaunal decomposition rates reflected the shifts in community structure and were strongly correlated with biomass across mesocosms. Our study demonstrates that the 4°C rise in temperature expected by the end of the century has the potential to alter the structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems profoundly, as well as the intimate linkages between these levels of ecological organization. PMID:22496185

[Health consequences of environmental temperature and climate variations].

PubMed

Swynghedauw, Bernard

2012-01-01

Recent climate change is a consequence of the greenhouse effect and human activity, and is directly responsible for extreme events such as heatwaves (see report of the French Académie des Sciences). Human thermoregulation depends more on behavior than on biology Air conditioning and building structure play an essential role. The 2003 heatwave was not a unique event. Preventive measures reduced mortality during subsequent heatwaves. Most deaths were due to heat stroke associated with dehydration. During strenuous exercise, especially during military training, heat stroke requires specific treatment. Temperature/ global mortality and temperature/cardiovascular mortality curves are both U-shaped. Usually, global mortality increases winter and is linked to temperature. During summer, global mortality increases only when heatwaves occur. Climate change participates in the spread of infectious diseases. Nevertheless, in continental France, for the moment, climate change is not a major factor in the incidence of infectious diseases, despite the fact that several bacteria, viruses and vectors are temperature-sensitive. The situation in Reunion, French Polynesia and French Departments of America is more complicated, due to their geographic heterogeneity. Some areas are more exposed to the climatic risk and could act as a gateway for new infections and mutations. The dramatic loss of biodiversity is partly a consequence of climate change. It increases the transmissibility of some pathogens and can also potentially lead to an increase in autoimmune diseases and obesity. Climate change plays a important role in allergic diseases, through changes in the diffusion and composition of pollens. These modifications are being monitored by several observatories. Six different veterinary diseases, including several zoonoses, are of particular concern.

Big biology meets microclimatology: Defining thermal niches of ectotherms at landscape scales for conservation planning

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Seth J. Wenger; Michael K. Young

2017-01-01

Temperature profoundly affects ecology, a fact ever more evident as the ability to measure thermal environments increases and global changes alter these environments. The spatial structure of thermalscapes is especially relevant to the distribution and abundance of ectothermic organisms but the ability to describe biothermal relationships at extents and grains relevant...

Fatigue Technology Assessment and Strategies for Fatigue Avoidance in Marine Structures

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-06-01

time history. xii MODELING ERROR (Xme) : Typically defined as the ratio of actual behavior of the structure to the one predicted by the model. It is...and temperature changes may be important to fatigue in a local component, these loadings are not a major concern in the global behavior of typical...Reference 3.1) to assess fracture behavior in a low toughness HAZ indicated that a small low- toughness area in the HAZ can be masked by the higher

Development of a Climate Prediction Market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.

2017-12-01

Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

The formation of topological defects in phase transitions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hodges, Hardy M.

1989-01-01

It was argued, and fought through numerical work that the results of non-dynamical Monte Carlo computer simulations cannot be applied to describe the formation of topological defects when the correlation length at the Ginzburg temperature is significantly smaller than the horizon size. To test the current hypothesis that infinite strings at formation are essentially described by Brownian walks of size the correlation length at the Ginzburg temperature, fields at the Ginzburg temperature were equilibrated. Infinite structure do not exist in equilibrium for reasonable definitions of the Ginzburg temperature, and horizons must be included in a proper treatment. A phase transition, from small-scale to large-scale string or domain wall structure, is found to occur very close to the Ginzburg temperature, in agreement with recent work. The formation process of domain walls and global strings were investigated through the breaking of initially ordered states. To mimic conditions in the early Universe, cooling times are chosen so that horizons exist in the sample volume when topological structure formation occurs. The classical fields are evolved in real-time by the numerical solution of Langevin equations of motion on a three dimensional spatial lattice. The results indicate that it is possible for most of the string energy to be in small loops, rather than in long strings, at formation.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point.

PubMed

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth's natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth's radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth's climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes.

Optimal Sunshade Configurations for Space-Based Geoengineering near the Sun-Earth L1 Point

PubMed Central

Sánchez, Joan-Pau; McInnes, Colin R.

2015-01-01

Within the context of anthropogenic climate change, but also considering the Earth’s natural climate variability, this paper explores the speculative possibility of large-scale active control of the Earth’s radiative forcing. In particular, the paper revisits the concept of deploying a large sunshade or occulting disk at a static position near the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange equilibrium point. Among the solar radiation management methods that have been proposed thus far, space-based concepts are generally seen as the least timely, albeit also as one of the most efficient. Large occulting structures could potentially offset all of the global mean temperature increase due to greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates optimal configurations of orbiting occulting disks that not only offset a global temperature increase, but also mitigate regional differences such as latitudinal and seasonal difference of monthly mean temperature. A globally resolved energy balance model is used to provide insights into the coupling between the motion of the occulting disks and the Earth’s climate. This allows us to revise previous studies, but also, for the first time, to search for families of orbits that improve the efficiency of occulting disks at offsetting climate change on both global and regional scales. Although natural orbits exist near the L1 equilibrium point, their period does not match that required for geoengineering purposes, thus forced orbits were designed that require small changes to the disk attitude in order to control its motion. Finally, configurations of two occulting disks are presented which provide the same shading area as previously published studies, but achieve reductions of residual latitudinal and seasonal temperature changes. PMID:26309047

Neutral and charged gallium clusters: structures, physical properties and implications for the melting features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Núñez, Sara; López, José M.; Aguado, Andrés

2012-09-01

We report the putative Global Minimum (GM) structures and electronic properties of GaN+, GaN and GaN- clusters with N = 13-37 atoms, obtained from first-principles density functional theory structural optimizations. The calculations include spin polarization and employ an exchange-correlation functional which accounts for van der Waals dispersion interactions (vdW-DFT). We find a wide diversity of structural motifs within the located GM, including decahedral, polyicosahedral, polytetrahedral and layered structures. The GM structures are also extremely sensitive to the number of electrons in the cluster, so that the structures of neutral and charged clusters differ for most sizes. The main magic numbers (clusters with an enhanced stability) are identified and interpreted in terms of electronic and geometric shell closings. The theoretical results are consistent with experimental abundance mass spectra of GaN+ and with photoelectron spectra of GaN-. The size dependence of the latent heats of melting, the shape of the heat capacity peaks, and the temperature dependence of the collision cross-sections, all measured for GaN+ clusters, are properly interpreted in terms of the calculated cohesive energies, spectra of configurational excitations, and cluster shapes, respectively. The transition from ``non-melter'' to ``magic-melter'' behaviour, experimentally observed between Ga30+ and Ga31+, is traced back to a strong geometry change. Finally, the higher-than-bulk melting temperatures of gallium clusters are correlated with a more typically metallic behaviour of the clusters as compared to the bulk, contrary to previous theoretical claims.We report the putative Global Minimum (GM) structures and electronic properties of GaN+, GaN and GaN- clusters with N = 13-37 atoms, obtained from first-principles density functional theory structural optimizations. The calculations include spin polarization and employ an exchange-correlation functional which accounts for van der Waals dispersion interactions (vdW-DFT). We find a wide diversity of structural motifs within the located GM, including decahedral, polyicosahedral, polytetrahedral and layered structures. The GM structures are also extremely sensitive to the number of electrons in the cluster, so that the structures of neutral and charged clusters differ for most sizes. The main magic numbers (clusters with an enhanced stability) are identified and interpreted in terms of electronic and geometric shell closings. The theoretical results are consistent with experimental abundance mass spectra of GaN+ and with photoelectron spectra of GaN-. The size dependence of the latent heats of melting, the shape of the heat capacity peaks, and the temperature dependence of the collision cross-sections, all measured for GaN+ clusters, are properly interpreted in terms of the calculated cohesive energies, spectra of configurational excitations, and cluster shapes, respectively. The transition from ``non-melter'' to ``magic-melter'' behaviour, experimentally observed between Ga30+ and Ga31+, is traced back to a strong geometry change. Finally, the higher-than-bulk melting temperatures of gallium clusters are correlated with a more typically metallic behaviour of the clusters as compared to the bulk, contrary to previous theoretical claims. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Atomic coordinates (in xyz format and Å units) and point group symmetries for the global minimum structures reported in this paper. See DOI: 10.1039/c2nr31222k

Structure of dung beetle communities in an altitudinal gradient of neotropical dry forest.

PubMed

Domínguez, D; Marín-Armijos, D; Ruiz, C

2015-02-01

To understand the effects of global warming in tropical insect communities, it is necessary to comprehend how such communities respond to different abiotic factors that covariate with altitude. In this study, we partially answer this question applied to dung beetle communities distributed along an altitudinal gradient. The sampling was conducted in seven stations 100 m apart each in altitude in a dry mountain scrub in southern Ecuador. A total of 7422 individuals belonging to six species were captured. Canthon balteatus Boheman was the most abundant with 6502 individuals, and Onoreidium ohausi (Arrow) was the least abundant with 20 individuals. We found significant changes in the structure of the dung beetle communities with altitude. Two abiotic factors showed a relationship with the abundance pattern for all species (altitude, Z = 0.011, p < 0.01, and temperature, Z = 0.859, p < 0.01). Canthon balteatus Boheman showed a positive relationship with altitude (Z = 1.422, p < 0.001) and temperature (Z = 1.121, p < 0.001), Dichotomius problematicus (Lüederwaldt) a positive relationship with precipitation (Z = 0.113, p < 0.001), and Malagoniella cupreicollis (Waterhouse) a positive relationship with temperature (Z = 0.668, p < 0.001) and negative with precipitation (Z = -0.189, p < 0.001). Phanaeus achilles Boheman, Onthophagus sp., and O. ohausi (Arrow) did not show any relationship with the studied variables, nor was the richness correlated with the studied variables. These results suggest that the effects of global warming over dung beetle communities will be difficult to predict because of species-specific responses to global warming.

Thermophysical ESEM and TEM Characterization of Carbon Fibers CTE, Spectroscopy and Roughness Studies at High Temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ochoa, Ozden O.

2004-01-01

Accurate determination of the transverse properties of carbon fibers is important for assessment and prediction of local material as well as global structural response of composite components. However the measurements are extremely difficult due to the very small diameters of the fibers (few microns only) and must be conducted within a microscope. In this work, environmental scanning electron microscope (ESEM) and transmission electron microscope (TEM) are used to determine the transverse coefficient of thermal expansion of different carbon fibers as a function of temperature.

Increasing occurrence of cold and warm extremes during the recent global warming slowdown.

PubMed

Johnson, Nathaniel C; Xie, Shang-Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Li, Xichen

2018-04-30

The recent levelling of global mean temperatures after the late 1990s, the so-called global warming hiatus or slowdown, ignited a surge of scientific interest into natural global mean surface temperature variability, observed temperature biases, and climate communication, but many questions remain about how these findings relate to variations in more societally relevant temperature extremes. Here we show that both summertime warm and wintertime cold extreme occurrences increased over land during the so-called hiatus period, and that these increases occurred for distinct reasons. The increase in cold extremes is associated with an atmospheric circulation pattern resembling the warm Arctic-cold continents pattern, whereas the increase in warm extremes is tied to a pattern of sea surface temperatures resembling the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. These findings indicate that large-scale factors responsible for the most societally relevant temperature variations over continents are distinct from those of global mean surface temperature.

Electronic effects on melting: Comparison of aluminum cluster anions and cations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Starace, Anne K.; Neal, Colleen M.; Cao, Baopeng; Jarrold, Martin F.; Aguado, Andrés; López, José M.

2009-07-01

Heat capacities have been measured as a function of temperature for aluminum cluster anions with 35-70 atoms. Melting temperatures and latent heats are determined from peaks in the heat capacities; cohesive energies are obtained for solid clusters from the latent heats and dissociation energies determined for liquid clusters. The melting temperatures, latent heats, and cohesive energies for the aluminum cluster anions are compared to previous measurements for the corresponding cations. Density functional theory calculations have been performed to identify the global minimum energy geometries for the cluster anions. The lowest energy geometries fall into four main families: distorted decahedral fragments, fcc fragments, fcc fragments with stacking faults, and "disordered" roughly spherical structures. The comparison of the cohesive energies for the lowest energy geometries with the measured values allows us to interpret the size variation in the latent heats. Both geometric and electronic shell closings contribute to the variations in the cohesive energies (and latent heats), but structural changes appear to be mainly responsible for the large variations in the melting temperatures with cluster size. The significant charge dependence of the latent heats found for some cluster sizes indicates that the electronic structure can change substantially when the cluster melts.

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

The Sensitivity of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment in West Antarctica to Lateral Variations in Earth Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nield, G.; Whitehouse, P. L.; Blank, B.; van der Wal, W.; O'Donnell, J. P.; Stuart, G. W.; Lloyd, A. J.; Wiens, D.

2017-12-01

Accurate models of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) are required for correcting satellite measurements of ice-mass change and for interpretation of geodetic data at the location of present and former ice sheets. Global models of GIA tend to adopt a 1-D representation of Earth structure, varying in the radial direction only. In some regions rheological parameters may differ significantly from this global average leading to bias in model predictions of present-day deformation, geoid change rates and sea-level change. The advancement of 3-D GIA modelling techniques in recent years has led to improvements in the representation of the Earth via the incorporation of laterally varying structure. This study investigates the influence of 3-D Earth structure on deformation rates in West Antarctica using a finite element GIA model with power-law rheology. We utilise datasets of seismic velocity and temperature for the crust and upper mantle with the aim of determining a data-driven Earth model, and consider the differences when compared to deformation predicted from an equivalent 1-D Earth structure.

Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM): Global Structure and Dynamics Driven by Auroral and Joule Heating

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougher, S. W.; J. Il. Waite, Jr.; Majeed, T.

2005-01-01

A growing multispectral database plus recent Galileo descent measurements are being used to construct a self-consistent picture of the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system. The proper characterization of Jupiter s upper atmosphere, embedded ionosphere, and auroral features requires the examination of underlying processes, including the feedbacks of energetics, neutral-ion dynamics, composition, and magnetospheric coupling. A fully 3-D Jupiter Thermospheric General Circulation Model (JTGCM) has been developed and exercised to address global temperatures, three-component neutral winds, and neutral-ion species distributions. The domain of this JTGCM extends from 20-microbar (capturing hydrocarbon cooling) to 1.0 x 10(exp -4) nbar (including aurora/Joule heating processes). The resulting JTGCM has been fully spun-up and integrated for greater than or equal to40 Jupiter rotations. Results from three JTGCM cases incorporating moderate auroral heating, ion drag, and moderate to strong Joule heating processes are presented. The neutral horizontal winds at ionospheric heights vary from 0.5 km/s to 1.2 km/s, atomic hydrogen is transported equatorward, and auroral exospheric temperatures range from approx.1200-1300 K to above 3000 K, depending on the magnitude of Joule heating. The equatorial temperature profiles from the JTGCM are compared with the measured temperature structure from the Galileo AS1 data set. The best fit to the Galileo data implies that the major energy source for maintaining the equatorial temperatures is due to dynamical heating induced by the low-latitude convergence of the high-latitude-driven thermospheric circulation. Overall, the Jupiter thermosphere/ionosphere system is highly variable and is shown to be strongly dependent on magnetospheric coupling which regulates Joule heating.

Atmospheric circulation of brown dwarfs and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets with active clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Xianyu; Showman, Adam

2016-10-01

Observational evidence have suggested active meteorology in the atmospheres of brown dwarfs (BDs) and directly imaged extrasolar giant planets (EGPs). In particular, a number of surveys for brown dwarfs showed that near-IR brightness variability is common for L and T dwarfs. Directly imaged EGPs share similar observations, and can be viewed as low-gravity versions of BDs. Clouds are believed to play the major role in shaping the thermal structure, dynamics and near-IR flux of these atmospheres. So far, only a few studies have been devoted to atmospheric circulation and the implications for observations of BDs and directly EGPs, and yet no global model includes a self-consistent active cloud formation. Here we present preliminary results from the first global circulation model applied to BDs and directly imaged EGPs that can properly treat absorption and scattering of radiation by cloud particles. Our results suggest that horizontal temperature differences on isobars can reach up to a few hundred Kelvins, with typical horizontal length scale of the temperature and cloud patterns much smaller than the radius of the object. The combination of temperature anomaly and cloud pattern can result in moderate disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Wind speeds can reach several hundred meters per second in cloud forming layers. Unlike Jupiter and Saturn, we do not observe stable zonal jet/banded patterns in our simulations. Instead, our simulated atmospheres are typically turbulent and dominated by transient vortices. The circulation is sensitive to the parameterized cloud microphysics. Under some parameter combinations, global-scale atmospheric waves can be triggered and maintained. These waves induce global-scale temperature anomalies and cloud patterns, causing large (up to several percent) disk-integrated near-IR flux variability. Our results demonstrate that the commonly observed near-IR brightness variability for BDs and directly imaged EGPs can be explained by the typical cloud-induced turbulent circulation, and in particular, the large flux variability for some objects can be attributed to the global-scale patterns of temperature anomaly and cloud formation caused by atmospheric waves.

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

van Vliet, M. T. H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Eisener, S.; Wada, Y.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

2016-01-01

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

Global atmospheric circulation statistics: Four year averages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. F.; Geller, M. A.; Nash, E. R.; Gelman, M. E.

1987-01-01

Four year averages of the monthly mean global structure of the general circulation of the atmosphere are presented in the form of latitude-altitude, time-altitude, and time-latitude cross sections. The numerical values are given in tables. Basic parameters utilized include daily global maps of temperature and geopotential height for 18 pressure levels between 1000 and 0.4 mb for the period December 1, 1978 through November 30, 1982 supplied by NOAA/NMC. Geopotential heights and geostrophic winds are constructed using hydrostatic and geostrophic formulae. Meridional and vertical velocities are calculated using thermodynamic and continuity equations. Fields presented in this report are zonally averaged temperature, zonal, meridional, and vertical winds, and amplitude of the planetary waves in geopotential height with zonal wave numbers 1-3. The northward fluxes of sensible heat and eastward momentum by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition and Eliassen-Palm flux propagation vectors and divergences by the standing and transient eddies along with their wavenumber decomposition are also given. Large interhemispheric differences and year-to-year variations are found to originate in the changes in the planetary wave activity.

Bulk Comptonization by Turbulence in Black Hole Accretion Discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, Jason

Radiation pressure dominated accretion discs may have turbulent velocities that exceed the electron thermal velocities. Bulk Comptonization by the turbulence may therefore dominate over thermal Comptonization in determining the emergent spectrum. We discuss how to self-consistently resolve and interpret this effect in calculations of spectra of radiation MHD simulations. In particular, we show that this effect is dominated by radiation viscous dissipation and can be treated as thermal Comptonization with an equivalent temperature. We investigate whether bulk Comptonization may provide a physical basis for warm Comptonization models of the soft X-ray excess in AGN. We characterize our results with temperatures and optical depths to make contact with other models of this component. We show that bulk Comptonization shifts the Wien tail to higher energy and lowers the gas temperature, broadening the spectrum. More generally, we model the dependence of this effect on a wide range of fundamental accretion disc parameters, such as mass, luminosity, radius, spin, inner boundary condition, and the alpha parameter. Because our model connects bulk Comptonization to one dimensional vertical structure temperature profiles in a physically intuitive way, it will be useful for understanding this effect in future simulations run in new regimes. We also develop a global Monte Carlo code to study this effect in global radiation MHD simulations. This code can be used more broadly to compare global simulations with observed systems, and in particular to investigate whether magnetically dominated discs can explain why observed high Eddington accretion discs appear to be thermally stable.

Global Biogeographic Analysis of Methanogenic Archaea Identifies Community-Shaping Environmental Factors of Natural Environments

PubMed Central

Wen, Xi; Yang, Sizhong; Horn, Fabian; Winkel, Matthias; Wagner, Dirk; Liebner, Susanne

2017-01-01

Methanogenic archaea are important for the global greenhouse gas budget since they produce methane under anoxic conditions in numerous natural environments such as oceans, estuaries, soils, and lakes. Whether and how environmental change will propagate into methanogenic assemblages of natural environments remains largely unknown owing to a poor understanding of global distribution patterns and environmental drivers of this specific group of microorganisms. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis targeting the biogeographic patterns and environmental controls of methanogenic communities using 94 public mcrA gene datasets. We show a global pattern of methanogenic archaea that is more associated with habitat filtering than with geographical dispersal. We identify salinity as the control on methanogenic community composition at global scale whereas pH and temperature are the major controls in non-saline soils and lakes. The importance of salinity for structuring methanogenic community composition is also reflected in the biogeography of methanogenic lineages and the physiological properties of methanogenic isolates. Linking methanogenic alpha-diversity with reported values of methane emission identifies estuaries as the most diverse methanogenic habitats with, however, minor contribution to the global methane budget. With salinity, temperature and pH our study identifies environmental drivers of methanogenic community composition facing drastic changes in many natural environments at the moment. However, consequences of this for the production of methane remain elusive owing to a lack of studies that combine methane production rate with community analysis. PMID:28769904

FeRh ground state and martensitic transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarkevich, Nikolai A.; Johnson, Duane D.

2018-01-01

Cubic B 2 FeRh exhibits a metamagnetic transition [(111) antiferromagnet (AFM) to ferromagnet (FM)] around 353 K and remains structurally stable at higher temperatures. However, the calculated zero-Kelvin phonons of AFM FeRh exhibit imaginary modes at M points in the Brillouin zone, indicating a premartensitic instability, which is a precursor to a martensitic transformation at low temperatures. Combining electronic-structure calculations with ab initio molecular dynamics, conjugate gradient relaxation, and the solid-state nudged-elastic band methods, we predict that AFM B 2 FeRh becomes unstable at ambient pressure and transforms without a barrier to an AFM(111) orthorhombic (martensitic) ground state below 90 ±10 K . We also consider competing structures, in particular, a tetragonal AFM(100) phase that is not the global ground state, as proposed [Phys. Rev. B 94, 180407(R) (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevB.94.180407], but a constrained solution.

EIT: Solar corona synoptic observations from SOHO with an Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delaboudiniere, J. P.; Gabriel, A. H.; Artzner, G. E.; Michels, D. J.; Dere, K. P.; Howard, R. A.; Catura, R.; Stern, R.; Lemen, J.; Neupert, W.

1988-01-01

The Extreme-ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) of SOHO (solar and heliospheric observatory) will provide full disk images in emission lines formed at temperatures that map solar structures ranging from the chromospheric network to the hot magnetically confined plasma in the corona. Images in four narrow bandpasses will be obtained using normal incidence multilayered optics deposited on quadrants of a Ritchey-Chretien telescope. The EIT is capable of providing a uniform one arc second resolution over its entire 50 by 50 arc min field of view. Data from the EIT will be extremely valuable for identifying and interpreting the spatial and temperature fine structures of the solar atmosphere. Temporal analysis will provide information on the stability of these structures and identify dynamical processes. EIT images, issued daily, will provide the global corona context for aid in unifying the investigations and in forming the observing plans for SOHO coronal instruments.

The GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vömel, H.; Berger, F. H.; Immler, F. J.; Seidel, D.; Thorne, P.

2009-04-01

While the global upper-air observing network has provided useful observations for operational weather forecasting for decades, its measurements lack the accuracy and long-term continuity needed for understanding climate change. Consequently, the scientific community faces uncertainty on such key issues as the trends of temperature in the upper troposphere and stratosphere or the variability and trends of stratospheric water vapour. To address these shortcomings, and to ensure that future climate records will be more useful than the records to date, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) program initiated the GCOS Reference Upper Air Network (GRUAN). GRUAN will be a network of about 30-40 observatories with a representative sampling of geographic regions and surface types. These stations will provide upper-air reference observations of the essential climate variables, i.e. temperature, geopotential, humidity, wind, radiation and cloud properties using specialized radiosondes and complementary remote sensing profiling instrumentation. Long-term stability, quality assurance / quality control, and a detailed assessment of measurement uncertainties will be the key aspects of GRUAN observations. The network will not be globally complete but will serve to constrain and adjust data from more spatially comprehensive global observing systems including satellites and the current radiosonde networks. This paper outlines the scientific rationale for GRUAN, its role in the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, network requirements and likely instrumentation, management structure, current status and future plans.

Reproductive Efficiency of a Mediterranean Endemic Zooxanthellate Coral Decreases with Increasing Temperature along a Wide Latitudinal Gradient

PubMed Central

Airi, Valentina; Gizzi, Francesca; Falini, Giuseppe; Levy, Oren; Dubinsky, Zvy; Goffredo, Stefano

2014-01-01

Investments at the organismal level towards reproduction and growth are often used as indicators of health. Understanding how such energy allocation varies with environmental conditions may, therefore, aid in predicting possible responses to global climatic change in the near future. For example, variations in seawater temperature may alter the physiological functioning, behavior, reproductive output and demographic traits (e.g., productivity) of marine organisms, leading to shifts in the structure, spatial range, and abundance of populations. This study investigated variations in reproductive output associated with local seawater temperature along a wide latitudinal gradient on the western Italian coast, in the zooxanthellate Mediterranean coral, Balanophyllia europaea. Reproductive potential varied significantly among sites, where B. europaea individuals from the warmest site experienced loss of oocytes during gametogenesis. Most of the early oocytes from warmest sites did not reach maturity, possibly due to inhibition of metabolic processes at high temperatures, causing B. europaea to reabsorb the oocytes and utilize them as energy for other vital functions. In a progressively warming Mediterranean, the efficiency of the energy invested in reproduction could be considerably reduced in this species, thereby affecting vital processes. Given the projected increase in seawater temperature as a consequence of global climate change, the present study adds evidence to the threats posed by high temperatures to the survival of B. europaea in the next decades. PMID:24618568

Multi-species hybrid modeling of plasma interactions at Io and Europa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebek, O.; Travnicek, P. M.; Walker, R. J.; Hellinger, P.

2017-12-01

We study the plasma interactions of Galilean satellites, Io and Europa, by means of multi-species global hybrid simulations. For both satellites we consider multi-species background plasma composed of oxygen and sulphur ions and multi-component neutral atmospheres. We consider ionization processes of the neutral atmosphere which is then a source of dense population of pick-up ions. We apply variable background plasma conditions (density, temperature, magnetic field magnitude and orientation) in order to cover the variability in conditions experienced by the satellites when located in different regions of the Jovian plasma torus. We examine global structure of the interactions, formation of Alfvén wings, development of temperature anisotropies and corresponding instabilities, and the fine phenomena caused by the multi-specie nature of the plasma. The results are in good agreement with in situ measurements of magnetic field and plasma density made by the Galileo spacecraft.

Similar negative impacts of temperature on global wheat yield estimated by three independent methods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The potential impact of global temperature change on global wheat production has recently been assessed with different methods, scaling and aggregation approaches. Here we show that grid-based simulations, point-based simulations, and statistical regressions produce similar estimates of temperature ...

Cyclo-biphenalenyl biradicaloid molecular materials: conformation, tautomerization, magnetism, and thermochromism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Jingsong; Sumpter, Bobby G; Meunier, Vincent

2011-01-01

Phenalenyl and its derivatives have recently attracted a great deal of interest as a result of a 2-electron multicenter (2e/mc) covalent pi-pi bonding between two pi-stacked phenalenyl units. The 2e/mc bonded pi-dimers are close in energy to the sigma-dimers of phenalenyl and therefore fickle properties may emerge from bond fluctuation, yielding smart pi-functional materials. Here we examine the valence tautomerization of two cyclo-biphenalenyl biradicaloid molecular materials with chair- and boat-conformations by spin-restricted (R) and unrestricted (U) DFT using the M06 and B3LYP functionals. We found that the chair-conformation involves a 2e/4c pi-pi bonded structure while the boat-conformation involves a 2e/12cmore » pi-pi bonded structure on their potential energy surfaces. The global minimum for the chair-conformation is the sigma-bonded structure while it is the pi-pi bonded structure for the boat-conformation. The chair-conformation exhibits a stepwise [3,3]-sigmatropic rearrangement, and calculations predict a negligible paramagnetic susceptibility near room temperature. In comparison, the paramagnetism of the boat-conformation should be observable by SQUID and/or ESR. According to the difference of the global minima of the two conformations and the parameterized UV-Vis calculations, the color of the chair-conformation is expected to become darker while that of the boat-conformation become lighter with increasing temperature.« less

Global Warming Estimation From Microwave Sounding Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Dalu, G.

1998-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 data sets, collected from sequential, polar-orbiting, Sun-synchronous National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration operational satellites, contain systematic calibration errors that are coupled to the diurnal temperature cycle over the globe. Since these coupled errors in MSU data differ between successive satellites, it is necessary to make compensatory adjustments to these multisatellite data sets in order to determine long-term global temperature change. With the aid of the observations during overlapping periods of successive satellites, we can determine such adjustments and use them to account for the coupled errors in the long-term time series of MSU Ch 2 global temperature. In turn, these adjusted MSU Ch 2 data sets can be used to yield global temperature trend. In a pioneering study, Spencer and Christy (SC) (1990) developed a procedure to derive the global temperature trend from MSU Ch 2 data. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedure, the magnitude of the coupled errors is not determined explicitly. Furthermore, based on some assumptions, these coupled errors are eliminated in three separate steps. Such a procedure can leave unaccounted residual errors in the time series of the temperature anomalies deduced by SC, which could lead to a spurious long-term temperature trend derived from their analysis. In the present study, we have developed a method that avoids the shortcomings of the SC procedures. Based on our analysis, we find there is a global warming of 0.23+/-0.12 K between 1980 and 1991. Also, in this study, the time series of global temperature anomalies constructed by removing the global mean annual temperature cycle compares favorably with a similar time series obtained from conventional observations of temperature.

Mars global reference atmosphere model (Mars-GRAM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, Bonnie F.

1992-01-01

Mars-GRAM is an empirical model that parameterizes the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere from the surface through thermospheric altitudes. In the lower atmosphere of Mars, the model is built around parameterizations of height, latitudinal, longitudinal, and seasonal variations of temperature determined from a survey of published measurements from the Mariner and Viking programs. Pressure and density are inferred from the temperature by making use of the hydrostatic and perfect gas laws relationships. For the upper atmosphere, the thermospheric model of Stewart is used. A hydrostatic interpolation routine is used to insure a smooth transition from the lower portion of the model to the Stewart thermospheric model. Other aspects of the model are discussed.

Inference of Global Mean Temperature Trend and Climate Change from MSU and AMSU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, Cuddapah; Iacovazzi, R. A., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and Advanced MSU (AMSU) radiometers flown on the NOAA operational satellite series are potentially valuable as global temperature monitoring devices. Spencer and Christy pioneered the analysis of mid-tropospheric temperature, given by MSU Channel 2 (Ch 2) at 53.74 GHz, to derive the global temperature trend. Also, in addition to monitoring global temperature, these microwave radiometers have the potential to reveal interannual climate signals in tropics. We have analyzed the data of MSU Ch 2 and AMSU Ch 5 (53.6 GHz) from the NOAA operational satellites for the period 1980 to 2000, utilizing the NOAA calibration procedure. The data are corrected for the satellite orbital drift based on the temporal changes of the on-board warm blackbody temperature. From our analysis, we find that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 Kdecade(sup -1) during 1980 to 2000. From an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of the MSU global data, we find that the mid-tropospheric temperature in middle and high latitudes responds to the ENSO forcing during the Northern Hemisphere Winter in a distinct manner. This mid-latitude response is opposite in phase to that in the tropics. This result is in accord with simulations performed with an ECMWF global spectral model. This study shows a potential use of the satellite observations for climatic change.

Recent history of large-scale ecosystem disturbances in North America derived from the AVHRR satellite record.

Treesearch

Christopher Potter; Tan Pang-Ning; Vipin Kumar; Chris Kucharik; Steven Klooster; Vanessa Genovese; Warren Cohen; Sean Healey

2005-01-01

Ecosystem structure and function are strongly affected by disturbance events, many of which in North America are associated with seasonal temperature extremes, wildfires, and tropical storms. This study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-year record of global satellite observations of vegetation phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR...

Lagrangian transport in a class of three-dimensional buoyancy-driven flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, Sebastian; Speetjens, Michel; Clercx, Herman

2017-11-01

The study concerns the Lagrangian dynamics of three-dimensional (3D) buoyancy-driven cavity flows under steady and laminar conditions due to a global temperature gradient imposed via an opposite hot and cold sidewall. This serves as archetypal configuration for natural-convection flows in which gravity is perpendicular to the global temperature gradient. Limited insight into the Lagrangian properties of this class of flows motivates this study. The 3D Lagrangian dynamics are investigated in terms of the generic structure of the Lagrangian flow topology that is described in terms of the Grashof number (Gr) and the Prandtl number (Pr). Gr is the principal control parameter for the flow topology: vanishing Gr yields a state of closed streamlines (integrable state); increasing Gr causes the formation of toroidal coherent structures embedded in chaotic streamlines governed by Hamiltonian mechanisms. Fluid inertia prevails for ``smaller'' Gr. A buoyancy-induced bifurcation of the flow topology occurs for ``larger'' Gr and underlies the emergence of ``secondary rolls'' and secondary tori for ``larger'' Pr. Stagnation points and corresponding manifold interactions are key to the dynamics. S.C. acknowledges financial support from Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT).

Evidence that global evapotranspiration makes a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature slowdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leggett, L. Mark W.; Ball, David A.

2018-02-01

The difference between the time series trend for temperature expected from the increasing level of atmospheric CO2 and that for the (more slowly rising) observed temperature has been termed the global surface temperature slowdown. In this paper, we characterise the single time series made from the subtraction of these two time series as the `global surface temperature gap'. We also develop an analogous atmospheric CO2 gap series from the difference between the level of CO2 and first-difference CO2 (that is, the change in CO2 from one period to the next). This paper provides three further pieces of evidence concerning the global surface temperature slowdown. First, we find that the present size of both the global surface temperature gap and the CO2 gap is unprecedented over a period starting at least as far back as the 1860s. Second, ARDL and Granger causality analyses involving the global surface temperature gap against the major candidate physical drivers of the ocean heat sink and biosphere evapotranspiration are conducted. In each case where ocean heat data was available, it was significant in the models: however, evapotranspiration, or its argued surrogate precipitation, also remained significant in the models alongside ocean heat. In terms of relative scale, the standardised regression coefficient for evapotranspiration was repeatedly of the same order of magnitude as—typically as much as half that for—ocean heat. The foregoing is evidence that, alongside the ocean heat sink, evapotranspiration is also likely to be making a substantial contribution to the global atmospheric temperature outcome. Third, there is evidence that both the ocean heat sink and the evapotranspiration process might be able to continue into the future to keep the temperature lower than the level-of-CO2 models would suggest. It is shown that this means there can be benefit in using the first-difference CO2 to temperature relationship shown in Leggett and Ball (Atmos Chem Phys 15(20):11571-11592, 2015) to forecast future global surface temperature.

The effects of incubation temperature on the development of the cortical forebrain in a lizard.

PubMed

Amiel, Joshua J; Bao, Shisan; Shine, Richard

2017-01-01

The embryos of egg-laying species are exposed to variable thermal regimes, which can influence not only the resultant hatchling's morphology (e.g., size, sex) and performance (e.g., locomotor speed), but also its cognitive performance (learning ability). To clarify the proximate basis for this latter effect, we incubated eggs of the scincid lizard Bassiana duperreyi under simulated 'hot' and 'cold' natural nest temperatures to examine the effect of incubation temperature on the structure of the telencephalon region of the forebrain. Hatchlings from low-temperature incubation had larger telencephalons (both in absolute terms and relative to body size) and larger neurons in their medial cortices, whereas the medial cortices of hatchlings from high-temperature incubation had fewer neurons overall, but greater neuronal density, and more neurons in certain areas. These temperature-induced differences in B. duperreyi forebrain development are consistent with (and may explain) the disparities in learning ability between hatchlings from our two incubation treatments. The phenotypic plasticity of lizard telencephalon anatomy in response to incubation temperature presents exciting opportunities for studies on the evolutionary and developmental determinants of intelligence in vertebrates, but also offers a cautionary tale. Global climate changes, wrought by anthropogenic activities, may directly modify brain structure in reptiles.

Robust, high-throughput solution structural analyses by small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hura, Greg L.; Menon, Angeli L.; Hammel, Michal

2009-07-20

We present an efficient pipeline enabling high-throughput analysis of protein structure in solution with small angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). Our SAXS pipeline combines automated sample handling of microliter volumes, temperature and anaerobic control, rapid data collection and data analysis, and couples structural analysis with automated archiving. We subjected 50 representative proteins, mostly from Pyrococcus furiosus, to this pipeline and found that 30 were multimeric structures in solution. SAXS analysis allowed us to distinguish aggregated and unfolded proteins, define global structural parameters and oligomeric states for most samples, identify shapes and similar structures for 25 unknown structures, and determine envelopes formore » 41 proteins. We believe that high-throughput SAXS is an enabling technology that may change the way that structural genomics research is done.« less

The Implications of 3D Thermal Structure on 1D Atmospheric Retrieval

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Blecic, Jasmina; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Greene, Thomas, E-mail: jasmina@nyu.edu

Using the atmospheric structure from a 3D global radiation-hydrodynamic simulation of HD 189733b and the open-source Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code, we investigate the difference between the secondary-eclipse temperature structure produced with a 3D simulation and the best-fit 1D retrieved model. Synthetic data are generated by integrating the 3D models over the Spitzer , the Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ), and the James Web Space Telescope ( JWST ) bandpasses, covering the wavelength range between 1 and 11 μ m where most spectroscopically active species have pronounced features. Using the data from different observing instruments, we present detailedmore » comparisons between the temperature–pressure profiles recovered by BART and those from the 3D simulations. We calculate several averages of the 3D thermal structure and explore which particular thermal profile matches the retrieved temperature structure. We implement two temperature parameterizations that are commonly used in retrieval to investigate different thermal profile shapes. To assess which part of the thermal structure is best constrained by the data, we generate contribution functions for our theoretical model and each of our retrieved models. Our conclusions are strongly affected by the spectral resolution of the instruments included, their wavelength coverage, and the number of data points combined. We also see some limitations in each of the temperature parametrizations, as they are not able to fully match the complex curvatures that are usually produced in hydrodynamic simulations. The results show that our 1D retrieval is recovering a temperature and pressure profile that most closely matches the arithmetic average of the 3D thermal structure. When we use a higher resolution, more data points, and a parametrized temperature profile that allows more flexibility in the middle part of the atmosphere, we find a better match between the retrieved temperature and pressure profile and the arithmetic average. The Spitzer and HST simulated observations sample deep parts of the planetary atmosphere and provide fewer constraints on the temperature and pressure profile, while the JWST observations sample the middle part of the atmosphere, providing a good match with the middle and most complex part of the arithmetic average of the 3D temperature structure.« less

Interactive effects of temperature and habitat complexity on freshwater communities.

PubMed

Scrine, Jennifer; Jochum, Malte; Ólafsson, Jón S; O'Gorman, Eoin J

2017-11-01

Warming can lead to increased growth of plants or algae at the base of the food web, which may increase the overall complexity of habitat available for other organisms. Temperature and habitat complexity have both been shown to alter the structure and functioning of communities, but they may also have interactive effects, for example, if the shade provided by additional habitat negates the positive effect of temperature on understory plant or algal growth. This study explored the interactive effects of these two major environmental factors in a manipulative field experiment, by assessing changes in ecosystem functioning (primary production and decomposition) and community structure in the presence and absence of artificial plants along a natural stream temperature gradient of 5-18°C. There was no effect of temperature or habitat complexity on benthic primary production, but epiphytic production increased with temperature in the more complex habitat. Cellulose decomposition rate increased with temperature, but was unaffected by habitat complexity. Macroinvertebrate communities were less similar to each other as temperature increased, while habitat complexity only altered community composition in the coldest streams. There was also an overall increase in macroinvertebrate abundance, body mass, and biomass in the warmest streams, driven by increasing dominance of snails and blackfly larvae. Presence of habitat complexity, however, dampened the strength of this temperature effect on the abundance of macroinvertebrates in the benthos. The interactive effects that were observed suggest that habitat complexity can modify the effects of temperature on important ecosystem functions and community structure, which may alter energy flow through the food web. Given that warming is likely to increase habitat complexity, particularly at higher latitudes, more studies should investigate these two major environmental factors in combination to improve our ability to predict the impacts of future global change.

Temperature differences within the detector of the Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, compared to global radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjeldstad, Berit; Grandum, Oddbjorn

1993-11-01

The Robertson-Berger sunburn meter, model 500, has no temperature compensation, and the effect of temperature on the instrument response has been investigated and discussed in several reports. It is recommended to control the temperature of the detector or at least measure it. The temperature sensor is recommended to be positioned within the detector unit. We have measured the temperature at three different positions in the detector: At the edge of the green filter where the phosphor layer is placed; at the glass tube covering the cathode; and, finally, the air temperature inside the instrument. These measurements have been performed outdoors since July 1991, with corresponding measurements of the global and direct solar radiation. There was no difference between the temperature of the glasstube covering the cathode and the air inside the instrument, at any radiation level. However, there was a difference between the green filter and the two others. The difference is linearly dependent on the amount of global radiation. The temperature difference, (Delta) T (temperature between the green filter and the air inside the sensor), increased 0.8 degree(s)C when the global irradiation increased by 100 W/m2. At maximum global radiation in Trondheim (latitude 63.4 degree(s)N) (Delta) T was approximately 5 - 6 K when the global radiation was about 700 W/m2. This was valid for temperatures between 7 degree(s)C and 30 degree(s)C. Only clear days were evaluated.

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Ocean plankton. Structure and function of the global ocean microbiome.

PubMed

Sunagawa, Shinichi; Coelho, Luis Pedro; Chaffron, Samuel; Kultima, Jens Roat; Labadie, Karine; Salazar, Guillem; Djahanschiri, Bardya; Zeller, Georg; Mende, Daniel R; Alberti, Adriana; Cornejo-Castillo, Francisco M; Costea, Paul I; Cruaud, Corinne; d'Ovidio, Francesco; Engelen, Stefan; Ferrera, Isabel; Gasol, Josep M; Guidi, Lionel; Hildebrand, Falk; Kokoszka, Florian; Lepoivre, Cyrille; Lima-Mendez, Gipsi; Poulain, Julie; Poulos, Bonnie T; Royo-Llonch, Marta; Sarmento, Hugo; Vieira-Silva, Sara; Dimier, Céline; Picheral, Marc; Searson, Sarah; Kandels-Lewis, Stefanie; Bowler, Chris; de Vargas, Colomban; Gorsky, Gabriel; Grimsley, Nigel; Hingamp, Pascal; Iudicone, Daniele; Jaillon, Olivier; Not, Fabrice; Ogata, Hiroyuki; Pesant, Stephane; Speich, Sabrina; Stemmann, Lars; Sullivan, Matthew B; Weissenbach, Jean; Wincker, Patrick; Karsenti, Eric; Raes, Jeroen; Acinas, Silvia G; Bork, Peer

2015-05-22

Microbes are dominant drivers of biogeochemical processes, yet drawing a global picture of functional diversity, microbial community structure, and their ecological determinants remains a grand challenge. We analyzed 7.2 terabases of metagenomic data from 243 Tara Oceans samples from 68 locations in epipelagic and mesopelagic waters across the globe to generate an ocean microbial reference gene catalog with >40 million nonredundant, mostly novel sequences from viruses, prokaryotes, and picoeukaryotes. Using 139 prokaryote-enriched samples, containing >35,000 species, we show vertical stratification with epipelagic community composition mostly driven by temperature rather than other environmental factors or geography. We identify ocean microbial core functionality and reveal that >73% of its abundance is shared with the human gut microbiome despite the physicochemical differences between these two ecosystems. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Overheated and Out of Breath: Temperature Regulation of Respiration and Oxygen Supply in Coastal Zooplankton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, M.; Elliott, D. T.; Pierson, J. J.

2016-02-01

Increasing global coastal hypoxia occurs under a large range of temperature and salinity conditions. Temperature directly influences oxygen solubility in seawater as well as the oxygen demand of zooplankton, thus oxygen concentration alone is not sufficient to categorize the biological impact of hypoxia for pelagic organisms. To effectively assess the impacts of hypoxic stress on zooplankton habitat space and production, it is necessary to consider the effects of temperature on both oxygen availability and zooplankton metabolism. Our analysis and modeling evaluate available oxygen (partial pressure and concentration) in the context of ambient temperature conditions and zooplankton oxygen demand. We will present allometric models, accounting for both body size and temperature that predict temperature-dependent oxygen supply and demand in coastal zooplankton. Our goal is to develop generalized, functional relationships that describe and quantify the interactive effects of temperature and low oxygen on coastal zooplankton that can lead to improved size-structured models that serve to predict impacts of increasing coastal hypoxia on pelagic food webs.

Treeline biogeochemistry and dynamics, Noatak National Preserve, northwestern Alaska: A section in Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey in Alaska, 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stottlemyer, Robert; Binkley, Dan; Steltzer, Heidi; Wilson, Frederic H.; Galloway, John P.

2002-01-01

The extensive boreal biome is little studies relative to its global importance. Its high soil moisture and low temperatures result in large below-ground reservoirs of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Presently, such high-latitude ecosystems are undergoing the largest temperature increases in global warming. Change in soil temperature or moisture in the large pools of soil organic matter could fundamentally change ecosystem C and N budgets. Since 1990, we have conducted treeline studies in a small (800 ha) watershed in Noatak National Preserve, northwestern Alaska. Our objectives were to (1) gain an understanding of treeline dynamics, structure, and function; and (2) examine the effects of global climate change, particularly soil temperature, moisture, and N availability, on ecosystem processes. Our intensive site studies show that the treeline has advanced into turdra during the past 150 years. Inplace and laboratory incubations indicate that soil organic-layer mineralization rates increase with a temperature change >5 degrees C. N availability was greatest in soils beneath alder and lowest beneath willow or cottongrass tussocks. Watershed output of inorganic N as NO3 was 70 percent greater than input. The high inorganic-N output likely reflects soil freeze-thaw cycles, shallow flowpaths to the stream, and low seasonal biological retention. Concentrations and flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streamwater increased during spring melt and in autumn, indicating a seasonal accumulation of soil and forest-floor DOC and a shallower flowpath for meltwater to the stream. In sum, our research suggests that treeling transitionzone processes are quite sensitive to climate change, especially those functions regulating the C and N cycles.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-12

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, Marshall; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Miguel, Edward

2015-11-01

Growing evidence demonstrates that climatic conditions can have a profound impact on the functioning of modern human societies, but effects on economic activity appear inconsistent. Fundamental productive elements of modern economies, such as workers and crops, exhibit highly non-linear responses to local temperature even in wealthy countries. In contrast, aggregate macroeconomic productivity of entire wealthy countries is reported not to respond to temperature, while poor countries respond only linearly. Resolving this conflict between micro and macro observations is critical to understanding the role of wealth in coupled human-natural systems and to anticipating the global impact of climate change. Here we unify these seemingly contradictory results by accounting for non-linearity at the macro scale. We show that overall economic productivity is non-linear in temperature for all countries, with productivity peaking at an annual average temperature of 13 °C and declining strongly at higher temperatures. The relationship is globally generalizable, unchanged since 1960, and apparent for agricultural and non-agricultural activity in both rich and poor countries. These results provide the first evidence that economic activity in all regions is coupled to the global climate and establish a new empirical foundation for modelling economic loss in response to climate change, with important implications. If future adaptation mimics past adaptation, unmitigated warming is expected to reshape the global economy by reducing average global incomes roughly 23% by 2100 and widening global income inequality, relative to scenarios without climate change. In contrast to prior estimates, expected global losses are approximately linear in global mean temperature, with median losses many times larger than leading models indicate.

Inferring Land Surface Model Parameters for the Assimilation of Satellite-Based L-Band Brightness Temperature Observations into a Soil Moisture Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.

2012-01-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission provides global measurements of L-band brightness temperatures at horizontal and vertical polarization and a variety of incidence angles that are sensitive to moisture and temperature conditions in the top few centimeters of the soil. These L-band observations can therefore be assimilated into a land surface model to obtain surface and root zone soil moisture estimates. As part of the observation operator, such an assimilation system requires a radiative transfer model (RTM) that converts geophysical fields (including soil moisture and soil temperature) into modeled L-band brightness temperatures. At the global scale, the RTM parameters and the climatological soil moisture conditions are still poorly known. Using look-up tables from the literature to estimate the RTM parameters usually results in modeled L-band brightness temperatures that are strongly biased against the SMOS observations, with biases varying regionally and seasonally. Such biases must be addressed within the land data assimilation system. In this presentation, the estimation of the RTM parameters is discussed for the NASA GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, which is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the Catchment land surface model. In the GEOS-5 land data assimilation system, soil moisture and brightness temperature biases are addressed in three stages. First, the global soil properties and soil hydraulic parameters that are used in the Catchment model were revised to minimize the bias in the modeled soil moisture, as verified against available in situ soil moisture measurements. Second, key parameters of the "tau-omega" RTM were calibrated prior to data assimilation using an objective function that minimizes the climatological differences between the modeled L-band brightness temperatures and the corresponding SMOS observations. Calibrated parameters include soil roughness parameters, vegetation structure parameters, and the single scattering albedo. After this climatological calibration, the modeling system can provide L-band brightness temperatures with a global mean absolute bias of less than 10K against SMOS observations, across multiple incidence angles and for horizontal and vertical polarization. Third, seasonal and regional variations in the residual biases are addressed by estimating the vegetation optical depth through state augmentation during the assimilation of the L-band brightness temperatures. This strategy, tested here with SMOS data, is part of the baseline approach for the Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture data product from the planned Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission.

Dataset of MIGRAME Project (Global Change, Altitudinal Range Shift and Colonization of Degraded Habitats in Mediterranean Mountains)

PubMed Central

Pérez-Luque, Antonio Jesús; Zamora, Regino; Bonet, Francisco Javier; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

2015-01-01

Abstract In this data paper, we describe the dataset of the Global Change, Altitudinal Range Shift and Colonization of Degraded Habitats in Mediterranean Mountains (MIGRAME) project, which aims to assess the capacity of altitudinal migration and colonization of marginal habitats by Quercus pyrenaica Willd. forests in Sierra Nevada (southern Spain) considering two global-change drivers: temperature increase and land-use changes. The dataset includes information of the forest structure (diameter size, tree height, and abundance) of the Quercus pyrenaica ecosystem in Sierra Nevada obtained from 199 transects sampled at the treeline ecotone, mature forest, and marginal habitats (abandoned cropland and pine plantations). A total of 3839 occurrence records were collected and 5751 measurements recorded. The dataset is included in the Sierra Nevada Global-Change Observatory (OBSNEV), a long-term research project designed to compile socio-ecological information on the major ecosystem types in order to identify the impacts of global change in this mountain range. PMID:26491387

Temperature Regimes Impact Coral Assemblages along Environmental Gradients on Lagoonal Reefs in Belize

PubMed Central

Townsend, Joseph E.; Courtney, Travis A.; Aichelman, Hannah E.; Davies, Sarah W.; Lima, Fernando P.; Castillo, Karl D.

2016-01-01

Coral reefs are increasingly threatened by global and local anthropogenic stressors such as rising seawater temperature, nutrient enrichment, sedimentation, and overfishing. Although many studies have investigated the impacts of local and global stressors on coral reefs, we still do not fully understand how these stressors influence coral community structure, particularly across environmental gradients on a reef system. Here, we investigate coral community composition across three different temperature and productivity regimes along a nearshore-offshore gradient on lagoonal reefs of the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS). A novel metric was developed using ultra-high-resolution satellite-derived estimates of sea surface temperatures (SST) to classify reefs as exposed to low (lowTP), moderate (modTP), or high (highTP) temperature parameters over 10 years (2003 to 2012). Coral species richness, abundance, diversity, density, and percent cover were lower at highTP sites relative to lowTP and modTP sites, but these coral community traits did not differ significantly between lowTP and modTP sites. Analysis of coral life history strategies revealed that highTP sites were dominated by hardy stress-tolerant and fast-growing weedy coral species, while lowTP and modTP sites consisted of competitive, generalist, weedy, and stress-tolerant coral species. Satellite-derived estimates of Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) were obtained for 13-years (2003–2015) as a proxy for primary production. Chl-a concentrations were highest at highTP sites, medial at modTP sites, and lowest at lowTP sites. Notably, thermal parameters correlated better with coral community traits between site types than productivity, suggesting that temperature (specifically number of days above the thermal bleaching threshold) played a greater role in defining coral community structure than productivity on the MBRS. Dominance of weedy and stress-tolerant genera at highTP sites suggests that corals utilizing these two life history strategies may be better suited to cope with warmer oceans and thus may warrant protective status under climate change. PMID:27606598

Temperature Regimes Impact Coral Assemblages along Environmental Gradients on Lagoonal Reefs in Belize.

PubMed

Baumann, Justin H; Townsend, Joseph E; Courtney, Travis A; Aichelman, Hannah E; Davies, Sarah W; Lima, Fernando P; Castillo, Karl D

2016-01-01

Coral reefs are increasingly threatened by global and local anthropogenic stressors such as rising seawater temperature, nutrient enrichment, sedimentation, and overfishing. Although many studies have investigated the impacts of local and global stressors on coral reefs, we still do not fully understand how these stressors influence coral community structure, particularly across environmental gradients on a reef system. Here, we investigate coral community composition across three different temperature and productivity regimes along a nearshore-offshore gradient on lagoonal reefs of the Belize Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS). A novel metric was developed using ultra-high-resolution satellite-derived estimates of sea surface temperatures (SST) to classify reefs as exposed to low (lowTP), moderate (modTP), or high (highTP) temperature parameters over 10 years (2003 to 2012). Coral species richness, abundance, diversity, density, and percent cover were lower at highTP sites relative to lowTP and modTP sites, but these coral community traits did not differ significantly between lowTP and modTP sites. Analysis of coral life history strategies revealed that highTP sites were dominated by hardy stress-tolerant and fast-growing weedy coral species, while lowTP and modTP sites consisted of competitive, generalist, weedy, and stress-tolerant coral species. Satellite-derived estimates of Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) were obtained for 13-years (2003-2015) as a proxy for primary production. Chl-a concentrations were highest at highTP sites, medial at modTP sites, and lowest at lowTP sites. Notably, thermal parameters correlated better with coral community traits between site types than productivity, suggesting that temperature (specifically number of days above the thermal bleaching threshold) played a greater role in defining coral community structure than productivity on the MBRS. Dominance of weedy and stress-tolerant genera at highTP sites suggests that corals utilizing these two life history strategies may be better suited to cope with warmer oceans and thus may warrant protective status under climate change.

Development of a High Resolution Passive Microwave 3U Cubesat for High Resolution Temperature Sounding and Imaging at 118 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gasiewski, A. J.; Sanders, B. T.; Gallaher, D. W.; Periasamy, L.; Alvarenga, G.; Weaver, R.; Scambos, T. A.

2014-12-01

PolarCube is a 3U CubeSat based on the CU ALL-STAR bus hosting an eight-channel passive microwave scanning spectrometer operating at the 118.7503 GHz (1-) O2 resonance. The anticipated launch date is in late 2015. It is being designed to operate for 12 months on orbit to provide global 118-GHz spectral imagery of the Earth over a full seasonal cycle. The mission will focus on the study of Arctic vertical temperature structure and its relation to sea ice coverage, but include the secondary goals of assessing the potential for convective cloud mass detection and cloud top altitude measurement and hurricane warm core sounding. The principles used by PolarCube for sounding and cloud measurement have been well established in number of peer-reviewed papers, although measurements using the 118 GHz oxygen line over the dry polar regions (unaffected by water vapor) have never been demonstrated from space. The PolarCube channels are selected to probe clear-air emission over vertical levels from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Operational spaceborne microwave soundings have available for decades but using lower frequencies (50-57 GHz) and from higher altitudes. While the JPSS ATMS sensor provides global coverage at ~32 km resolution PolarCube will improve on this resolution by a factor of two (~16 km), thus facilitating a key science goal of mapping sea ice concentration and extent while obtaining temperature profile data. Additionally, we seek to correlate freeze-thaw line data from the NASA SMAP mission with atmospheric temperature structure to help understand the relationship between clouds, temperature, and surface energy fluxes during seasonal transitions. PolarCube will also provide the first demonstration of a very low cost passive microwave sounder that if operated in a fleet configuration would have the potential to fulfill the goals of the Precipitation Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity (PATH) mission, as defined in the NRC Decadal Survey.

Different Mechanisms of Soil Microbial Response to Global Change Result in Different Outcomes in the MIMICS-CN Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kyker-Snowman, E.; Wieder, W. R.; Grandy, S.

2017-12-01

Microbial-explicit models of soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling have improved upon simulations of C and N stocks and flows at site-to-global scales relative to traditional first-order linear models. However, the response of microbial-explicit soil models to global change factors depends upon which parameters and processes in a model are altered by those factors. We used the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization Model with coupled N cycling (MIMICS-CN) to compare modeled responses to changes in temperature and plant inputs at two previously-modeled sites (Harvard Forest and Kellogg Biological Station). We spun the model up to equilibrium, applied each perturbation, and evaluated 15 years of post-perturbation C and N pools and fluxes. To model the effect of increasing temperatures, we independently examined the impact of decreasing microbial C use efficiency (CUE), increasing the rate of microbial turnover, and increasing Michaelis-Menten kinetic rates of litter decomposition, plus several combinations of the three. For plant inputs, we ran simulations with stepwise increases in metabolic litter, structural litter, whole litter (structural and metabolic), or labile soil C. The cumulative change in soil C or N varied in both sign and magnitude across simulations. For example, increasing kinetic rates of litter decomposition resulted in net releases of both C and N from soil pools, while decreasing CUE produced short-term increases in respiration but long-term accumulation of C in litter pools and shifts in soil C:N as microbial demand for C increased and biomass declined. Given that soil N cycling constrains the response of plant productivity to global change and that soils generate a large amount of uncertainty in current earth system models, microbial-explicit models are a critical opportunity to advance the modeled representation of soils. However, microbial-explicit models must be improved by experiments to isolate the physiological and stoichiometric parameters of soil microbes that shift under global change.

Temperature Increase Reduces Global Yields of Major Crops in Four Independent Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe;

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

PubMed Central

Zhao, Chuang; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B.; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A.; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Peng, Shushi; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-01-01

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population. PMID:28811375

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates.

PubMed

Zhao, Chuang; Liu, Bing; Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Lobell, David B; Huang, Yao; Huang, Mengtian; Yao, Yitong; Bassu, Simona; Ciais, Philippe; Durand, Jean-Louis; Elliott, Joshua; Ewert, Frank; Janssens, Ivan A; Li, Tao; Lin, Erda; Liu, Qiang; Martre, Pierre; Müller, Christoph; Peng, Shushi; Peñuelas, Josep; Ruane, Alex C; Wallach, Daniel; Wang, Tao; Wu, Donghai; Liu, Zhuo; Zhu, Yan; Zhu, Zaichun; Asseng, Senthold

2017-08-29

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

The Construction and Validation of All-Atom Bulk-Phase Models of Amorphous Polymers Using the TIGER2/TIGER3 Empirical Sampling Method

PubMed Central

Li, Xianfeng; Murthy, Sanjeeva; Latour, Robert A.

2011-01-01

A new empirical sampling method termed “temperature intervals with global exchange of replicas and reduced radii” (TIGER3) is presented and demonstrated to efficiently equilibrate entangled long-chain molecular systems such as amorphous polymers. The TIGER3 algorithm is a replica exchange method in which simulations are run in parallel over a range of temperature levels at and above a designated baseline temperature. The replicas sampled at temperature levels above the baseline are run through a series of cycles with each cycle containing four stages – heating, sampling, quenching, and temperature level reassignment. The method allows chain segments to pass through one another at elevated temperature levels during the sampling stage by reducing the van der Waals radii of the atoms, thus eliminating chain entanglement problems. Atomic radii are then returned to their regular values and re-equilibrated at elevated temperature prior to quenching to the baseline temperature. Following quenching, replicas are compared using a Metropolis Monte Carlo exchange process for the construction of an approximate Boltzmann-weighted ensemble of states and then reassigned to the elevated temperature levels for additional sampling. Further system equilibration is performed by periodic implementation of the previously developed TIGER2 algorithm between cycles of TIGER3, which applies thermal cycling without radii reduction. When coupled with a coarse-grained modeling approach, the combined TIGER2/TIGER3 algorithm yields fast equilibration of bulk-phase models of amorphous polymer, even for polymers with complex, highly branched structures. The developed method was tested by modeling the polyethylene melt. The calculated properties of chain conformation and chain segment packing agreed well with published data. The method was also applied to generate equilibrated structural models of three increasingly complex amorphous polymer systems: poly(methyl methacrylate), poly(butyl methacrylate), and DTB-succinate copolymer. Calculated glass transition temperature (Tg) and structural parameter profile (S(q)) for each resulting polymer model were found to be in close agreement with experimental Tg values and structural measurements obtained by x-ray diffraction, thus validating that the developed methods provide realistic models of amorphous polymer structure. PMID:21769156

Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Romansic, John M; McCallum, Hamish; Hudson, Peter J

2008-11-11

Human alteration of the environment has arguably propelled the Earth into its sixth mass extinction event and amphibians, the most threatened of all vertebrate taxa, are at the forefront. Many of the worldwide amphibian declines have been caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), and two contrasting hypotheses have been proposed to explain these declines. Positive correlations between global warming and Bd-related declines sparked the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis, which proposes that global warming increased cloud cover in warm years that drove the convergence of daytime and nighttime temperatures toward the thermal optimum for Bd growth. In contrast, the spatiotemporal-spread hypothesis states that Bd-related declines are caused by the introduction and spread of Bd, independent of climate change. We provide a rigorous test of these hypotheses by evaluating (i) whether cloud cover, temperature convergence, and predicted temperature-dependent Bd growth are significant positive predictors of amphibian extinctions in the genus Atelopus and (ii) whether spatial structure in the timing of these extinctions can be detected without making assumptions about the location, timing, or number of Bd emergences. We show that there is spatial structure to the timing of Atelopus spp. extinctions but that the cause of this structure remains equivocal, emphasizing the need for further molecular characterization of Bd. We also show that the reported positive multi-decade correlation between Atelopus spp. extinctions and mean tropical air temperature in the previous year is indeed robust, but the evidence that it is causal is weak because numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions. Finally, almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. Although climate change is likely to play an important role in worldwide amphibian declines, more convincing evidence is needed of a causal link.

Shear wave velocity, seismic attenuation, and thermal structure of the continental upper mantle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artemieva, I.M.; Billien, M.; Leveque, J.-J.; Mooney, W.D.

2004-01-01

Seismic velocity and attenuation anomalies in the mantle are commonly interpreted in terms of temperature variations on the basis of laboratory studies of elastic and anelastic properties of rocks. In order to evaluate the relative contributions of thermal and non-thermal effects on anomalies of attenuation of seismic shear waves, QS-1, and seismic velocity, VS, we compare global maps of the thermal structure of the continental upper mantle with global QS-1 and Vs maps as determined from Rayleigh waves at periods between 40 and 150 S. We limit the comparison to three continental mantle depths (50, 100 and 150 km), where model resolution is relatively high. The available data set does not indicate that, at a global scale, seismic anomalies in the upper mantle are controlled solely by temperature variations. Continental maps have correlation coefficients of <0.56 between VS and T and of <0.47 between QS and T at any depth. Such low correlation coefficients can partially be attributed to modelling arrefacts; however, they also suggest that not all of the VS and QS anomalies in the continental upper mantle can be explained by T variations. Global maps show that, by the sign of the anomaly, VS and QS usually inversely correlate with lithospheric temperatures: most cratonic regions show high VS and QS and low T, while most active regions have seismic and thermal anomalies of the opposite sign. The strongest inverse correlation is found at a depth of 100 km, where the attenuation model is best resolved. Significantly, at this depth, the contours of near-zero QS anomalies approximately correspond to the 1000 ??C isotherm, in agreement with laboratory measurements that show a pronounced increase in seismic attenuation in upper mantle rocks at 1000-1100 ??C. East-west profiles of VS, QS and T where continental data coverage is best (50??N latitude for North America and 60??N latitude for Eurasia) further demonstrate that temperature plays a dominant, but non-unique, role in determining the value of lithospheric VS and QS. At 100 km depth, where the resolution of seismic models is the highest, we compare observed seismic VS and QS with theoretical VST and QST values, respectively, that are calculated solely from temperature anomalies and constrained by experimental data on temperature dependencies of velocity and attenuation. This comparison shows that temperature variations alone are sufficient to explain seismic VS and QS in ca 50 per cent of continental regions. We hypothesize that compositional anomalies resulting from Fe depletion can explain the misfit between seismic and theoretical VS in cratonic lithosphere. In regions of active tectonics, temperature effects alone cannot explain seismic VS and QS in the lithosphere. It is likely that partial melts and/or fluids may affect seismic parameters in these regions. This study demonstrates that lithospheric temperature plays the dominant role in controlling VS and QS anomalies, but other physical parameters, such as compositional variations, fluids, partial melting and scattering, may also play a significant role in determining VS and QS variations in the continental mantle. ?? 2004 RAS.

Drastic changes in aquatic bacterial populations from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico) in response to long-term environmental stress.

PubMed

Pajares, Silvia; Eguiarte, Luis E; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Souza, Valeria

2013-12-01

Understanding the changes of aquatic microbial community composition in response to changes in temperature and ultraviolet irradiation is relevant for predicting biogeochemical modifications in the functioning of natural microbial communities under global climate change scenarios. Herein we investigate shifts in the bacterioplankton composition in response to long-term changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with composite aquatic microbial communities from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexican Chihuahuan desert) and were subject to different temperatures and UV conditions. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were obtained from water samples at the mid-point (4 months) and the end of the experiment (8 months). An increase in bacterial diversity over time was found in the treatment of constant temperature and UV protection, which suggests that stable environments promote the establishment of complex and diverse bacterial community. Drastic changes in the phylogenetic bacterioplankton composition and structure were observed in response to fluctuating temperature and increasing UV radiation and temperature. Fluctuating temperature induced the largest decrease of bacterial richness during the experiment, indicating that frequent temperature changes drive the reduction in abundance of several species, most notably autotrophs. The long-term impact of these environmental stresses reduced diversity and selected for generalist aquatic bacterial populations, such as Porphyrobacter. These changes at the community level occur at an ecological time scale, suggesting that under global warming scenarios cascade effects on the food web are possible if the microbial diversity is modified.

Testing for the Possible Influence of Unknown Climate Forcings upon Global Temperature Increases from 1950-2000

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A.

2012-10-15

Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century, including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures, are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000, data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numericalmore » global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures—and global-mean near-surface temperatures—is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition, they indicate that less than 25%of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements, emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.« less

Global and local disturbances interact to modify seagrass palatability.

PubMed

Jiménez-Ramos, Rocío; Egea, Luis G; Ortega, María J; Hernández, Ignacio; Vergara, Juan J; Brun, Fernando G

2017-01-01

Global change, such as warming and ocean acidification, and local anthropogenic disturbances, such as eutrophication, can have profound impacts on marine organisms. However, we are far from being able to predict the outcome of multiple interacting disturbances on seagrass communities. Herbivores are key in determining plant community structure and the transfer of energy up the food web. Global and local disturbances may alter the ecological role of herbivory by modifying leaf palatability (i.e. leaf traits) and consequently, the feeding patterns of herbivores. This study evaluates the main and interactive effects of factors related to global change (i.e. elevated temperature, lower pH levels and associated ocean acidification) and local disturbance (i.e. eutrophication through ammonium enrichment) on a broad spectrum of leaf traits using the temperate seagrass Cymodocea nodosa, including structural, nutritional, biomechanical and chemical traits. The effect of these traits on the consumption rates of the generalist herbivore Paracentrotus lividus (purple sea urchin) is evaluated. The three disturbances of warming, low pH level and eutrophication, alone and in combination, increased the consumption rate of seagrass by modifying all leaf traits. Leaf nutritional quality, measured as nitrogen content, was positively correlated to consumption rate. In contrast, a negative correlation was found between feeding decisions by sea urchins and structural, biomechanical and chemical leaf traits. In addition, a notable accomplishment of this work is the identification of phenolic compounds not previously reported for C. nodosa. Our results suggest that global and local disturbances may trigger a major shift in the herbivory of seagrass communities, with important implications for the resilience of seagrass ecosystems.

Independent Metrics for Protein Backbone and Side-Chain Flexibility: Time Scales and Effects of Ligand Binding.

PubMed

Fuchs, Julian E; Waldner, Birgit J; Huber, Roland G; von Grafenstein, Susanne; Kramer, Christian; Liedl, Klaus R

2015-03-10

Conformational dynamics are central for understanding biomolecular structure and function, since biological macromolecules are inherently flexible at room temperature and in solution. Computational methods are nowadays capable of providing valuable information on the conformational ensembles of biomolecules. However, analysis tools and intuitive metrics that capture dynamic information from in silico generated structural ensembles are limited. In standard work-flows, flexibility in a conformational ensemble is represented through residue-wise root-mean-square fluctuations or B-factors following a global alignment. Consequently, these approaches relying on global alignments discard valuable information on local dynamics. Results inherently depend on global flexibility, residue size, and connectivity. In this study we present a novel approach for capturing positional fluctuations based on multiple local alignments instead of one single global alignment. The method captures local dynamics within a structural ensemble independent of residue type by splitting individual local and global degrees of freedom of protein backbone and side-chains. Dependence on residue type and size in the side-chains is removed via normalization with the B-factors of the isolated residue. As a test case, we demonstrate its application to a molecular dynamics simulation of bovine pancreatic trypsin inhibitor (BPTI) on the millisecond time scale. This allows for illustrating different time scales of backbone and side-chain flexibility. Additionally, we demonstrate the effects of ligand binding on side-chain flexibility of three serine proteases. We expect our new methodology for quantifying local flexibility to be helpful in unraveling local changes in biomolecular dynamics.

Climate model simulations of the mid-Pliocene: Earth's last great interval of global warmth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dolan, A.M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.

2012-01-01

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Workshop; Reston, Virginia, 2–4 August 2011 The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), supported by the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project and Powell Center, is an integral part of a third iteration of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). PlioMIP's aim is to systematically compare structurally different climate models. This is done in the context of the mid-Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 million years ago), a geological interval when the global annual mean temperature was similar to predictions for the next century.

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation.

PubMed

Shakun, Jeremy D; Clark, Peter U; He, Feng; Marcott, Shaun A; Mix, Alan C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Schmittner, Andreas; Bard, Edouard

2012-04-04

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Introduction to climate change adaptation and mitigation management options

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

Climate is a critical factor shaping the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the Southern United States. Human induced changes in climate systems have resulted in an increase in the global average air temperature of about 0.8°C since the 1900s (Pachuri and Reisinger 2007). Data from long-term weather stations show that overall, the continental United States...

Quantifying the topography of the intrinsic energy landscape of flexible biomolecular recognition

PubMed Central

Chu, Xiakun; Gan, Linfeng; Wang, Erkang; Wang, Jin

2013-01-01

Biomolecular functions are determined by their interactions with other molecules. Biomolecular recognition is often flexible and associated with large conformational changes involving both binding and folding. However, the global and physical understanding for the process is still challenging. Here, we quantified the intrinsic energy landscapes of flexible biomolecular recognition in terms of binding–folding dynamics for 15 homodimers by exploring the underlying density of states, using a structure-based model both with and without considering energetic roughness. By quantifying three individual effective intrinsic energy landscapes (one for interfacial binding, two for monomeric folding), the association mechanisms for flexible recognition of 15 homodimers can be classified into two-state cooperative “coupled binding–folding” and three-state noncooperative “folding prior to binding” scenarios. We found that the association mechanism of flexible biomolecular recognition relies on the interplay between the underlying effective intrinsic binding and folding energy landscapes. By quantifying the whole global intrinsic binding–folding energy landscapes, we found strong correlations between the landscape topography measure Λ (dimensionless ratio of energy gap versus roughness modulated by the configurational entropy) and the ratio of the thermodynamic stable temperature versus trapping temperature, as well as between Λ and binding kinetics. Therefore, the global energy landscape topography determines the binding–folding thermodynamics and kinetics, crucial for the feasibility and efficiency of realizing biomolecular function. We also found “U-shape” temperature-dependent kinetic behavior and a dynamical cross-over temperature for dividing exponential and nonexponential kinetics for two-state homodimers. Our study provides a unique way to bridge the gap between theory and experiments. PMID:23754431

ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS OF TERRESTRIAL EXOPLANETS OVER A WIDE RANGE OF ORBITAL AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kaspi, Yohai; Showman, Adam P., E-mail: yohai.kaspi@weizmann.ac.il

The recent discoveries of terrestrial exoplanets and super-Earths extending over a broad range of orbital and physical parameters suggest that these planets will span a wide range of climatic regimes. Characterization of the atmospheres of warm super-Earths has already begun and will be extended to smaller and more distant planets over the coming decade. The habitability of these worlds may be strongly affected by their three-dimensional atmospheric circulation regimes, since the global climate feedbacks that control the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone—including transitions to Snowball-like states and runaway-greenhouse feedbacks—depend on the equator-to-pole temperature differences, patterns of relativemore » humidity, and other aspects of the dynamics. Here, using an idealized moist atmospheric general circulation model including a hydrological cycle, we study the dynamical principles governing the atmospheric dynamics on such planets. We show how the planetary rotation rate, stellar flux, atmospheric mass, surface gravity, optical thickness, and planetary radius affect the atmospheric circulation and temperature distribution on such planets. Our simulations demonstrate that equator-to-pole temperature differences, meridional heat transport rates, structure and strength of the winds, and the hydrological cycle vary strongly with these parameters, implying that the sensitivity of the planet to global climate feedbacks will depend significantly on the atmospheric circulation. We elucidate the possible climatic regimes and diagnose the mechanisms controlling the formation of atmospheric jet streams, Hadley and Ferrel cells, and latitudinal temperature differences. Finally, we discuss the implications for understanding how the atmospheric circulation influences the global climate.« less

Assessment of body mapping sportswear using a manikin operated in constant temperature mode and thermoregulatory model control mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Faming; Del Ferraro, Simona; Molinaro, Vincenzo; Morrissey, Matthew; Rossi, René

2014-09-01

Regional sweating patterns and body surface temperature differences exist between genders. Traditional sportswear made from one material and/or one fabric structure has a limited ability to provide athletes sufficient local wear comfort. Body mapping sportswear consists of one piece of multiple knit structure fabric or of different fabric pieces that may provide athletes better wear comfort. In this study, the `modular' body mapping sportswear was designed and subsequently assessed on a `Newton' type sweating manikin that operated in both constant temperature mode and thermophysiological model control mode. The performance of the modular body mapping sportswear kit and commercial products were also compared. The results demonstrated that such a modular body mapping sportswear kit can meet multiple wear/thermal comfort requirements in various environmental conditions. All body mapping clothing (BMC) presented limited global thermophysiological benefits for the wearers. Nevertheless, BMC showed evident improvements in adjusting local body heat exchanges and local thermal sensations.

Assessment of body mapping sportswear using a manikin operated in constant temperature mode and thermoregulatory model control mode.

PubMed

Wang, Faming; Del Ferraro, Simona; Molinaro, Vincenzo; Morrissey, Matthew; Rossi, René

2014-09-01

Regional sweating patterns and body surface temperature differences exist between genders. Traditional sportswear made from one material and/or one fabric structure has a limited ability to provide athletes sufficient local wear comfort. Body mapping sportswear consists of one piece of multiple knit structure fabric or of different fabric pieces that may provide athletes better wear comfort. In this study, the 'modular' body mapping sportswear was designed and subsequently assessed on a 'Newton' type sweating manikin that operated in both constant temperature mode and thermophysiological model control mode. The performance of the modular body mapping sportswear kit and commercial products were also compared. The results demonstrated that such a modular body mapping sportswear kit can meet multiple wear/thermal comfort requirements in various environmental conditions. All body mapping clothing (BMC) presented limited global thermophysiological benefits for the wearers. Nevertheless, BMC showed evident improvements in adjusting local body heat exchanges and local thermal sensations.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries.

PubMed

Bathiany, Sebastian; Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten; Lenton, Timothy M

2018-05-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C -1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.

Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

PubMed Central

Dakos, Vasilis; Scheffer, Marten

2018-01-01

Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. PMID:29732409

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Near-isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust induced by melt migration.

PubMed

Depine, Gabriela V; Andronicos, Christopher L; Phipps-Morgan, Jason

2008-03-06

The thermal structure of the crust strongly influences deformation, metamorphism and plutonism. Models for the geothermal gradient in stable crust predict a steady increase of temperature with depth. This thermal structure, however, is incompatible with observations from high-temperature metamorphic terranes exhumed in orogens. Global compilations of peak conditions in high-temperature metamorphic terranes define relatively narrow ranges of peak temperatures over a wide range in pressure, for both isothermal decompression and isobaric cooling paths. Here we develop simple one-dimensional thermal models that include the effects of melt migration. These models show that long-lived plutonism results in a quasi-steady-state geotherm with a rapid temperature increase in the upper crust and nearly isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust. The models also predict that the upward advection of heat by melt generates granulite facies metamorphism, and widespread andalusite-sillimanite metamorphism in the upper crust. Once the quasi-steady-state thermal profile is reached, the middle and lower crust are greatly weakened due to high temperatures and anatectic conditions, thus setting the stage for gravitational collapse, exhumation and isothermal decompression after the onset of plutonism. Near-isothermal conditions in the middle and lower crust result from the thermal buffering effect of dehydration melting reactions that, in part, control the shape of the geotherm.

The Effects of Global Warming on Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Northeast America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francis, F.

2013-12-01

The objective of this paper is to discuss the analysis of results in temperature and precipitation (rainfall) data and how they are affected by the theory of global warming in Northeast America. The topic was chosen because it will show the trends in temperature and precipitation and their relations to global warming. Data was collected from The Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The data range from years of 1973 to 2012. We were able to calculate the yearly and monthly regress to estimate the relationship of variables found in the individual sources. With the use of specially designed software, analysis and manual calculations we are able to give a visualization of these trends in precipitation and temperature and to question if these trends are due to the theory of global warming. With the Calculation of the trends in slope we were able to interpret the changes in minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation. Precipitation had a 9.5 % increase over the past forty years, while maximum temperature increased 1.9 %, a greater increase is seen in minimum temperature of 3.3 % was calculated over the years. The trends in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature is statistically significant at a 95% level.

Atmospheric Structure and Diurnal Variations at Low Altitudes in the Martian Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, David P.; Spiga, A.; Lewis, S.; Tellmann, S.; Pätzold, M.; Asmar, S.; Häusler, B.

2013-10-01

We are using radio occultation measurements from Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Mars Global Surveyor to characterize the diurnal cycle in the lowest scale height above the surface. We focus on northern spring and summer, using observations from 4 Martian years at local times of 4-5 and 15-17 h. We supplement the observations with results obtained from large-eddy simulations and through data assimilation by the UK spectral version of the LMD Mars Global Circulation Model. We previously investigated the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and its variations with surface elevation and surface properties. We are now examining unusual aspects of the temperature structure observed at night. Most important, predawn profiles in the Tharsis region contain an unexpected layer of neutral static stability at pressures of 200-300 Pa with a depth of 4-5 km. The mixed layer is bounded above by a midlevel temperature inversion and below by another strong inversion adjacent to the surface. The narrow temperature minimum at the base of the midlevel inversion suggests the presence of a water ice cloud layer, with the further implication that radiative cooling at cloud level can induce convective activity at lower altitudes. Conversely, nighttime profiles in Amazonis show no sign of a midlevel inversion or a detached mixed layer. These regional variations in the nighttime temperature structure appear to arise in part from large-scale variations in topography, which have several notable effects. First, the CBL is much deeper in the Tharsis region than in Amazonis, owing to a roughly 6-km difference in surface elevation. Second, large-eddy simulations show that daytime convection is not only deeper above Tharsis but also considerably more intense than it is in Amazonis. Finally, the daytime surface temperatures are comparable in the two regions, so that Tharsis acts as an elevated heat source throughout the CBL. These topographic effects are expected to enhance the vertical mixing of water vapor above elevated terrain, which might lead to the formation and regional confinement of nighttime clouds.

Composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest respond to spatial climatic changes.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingli; Zhou, Yong; Zhou, Guangsheng; Xiao, Chunwang

2014-01-01

Although some studies have indicated that climate changes can affect Pinus koraiensis mixed forest, the responses of composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forests to climatic changes are unknown and the key climatic factors controlling the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest are uncertain. Field survey was conducted in the natural Pinus koraiensis mixed forests along a latitudinal gradient and an elevational gradient in Northeast China. In order to build the mathematical models for simulating the relationships of compositional and structural attributes of the Pinus koraiensis mixed forest with climatic and non-climatic factors, stepwise linear regression analyses were performed, incorporating 14 dependent variables and the linear and quadratic components of 9 factors. All the selected new models were computed under the +2°C and +10% precipitation and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenarios. The Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month were observed to be key climatic factors controlling the stand densities and total basal areas of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Increased summer temperatures and precipitations strongly enhanced the stand densities and total basal areas of broadleaf trees but had little effect on Pinus koraiensis under the +2°C and +10% precipitation scenario and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenario. These results show that the Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month are key climatic factors which shape the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Although the Pinus koraiensis would persist, the current forests dominated by Pinus koraiensis in the region would all shift and become broadleaf-dominated forests due to the dramatic increase of broadleaf trees under the future global warming and increased precipitation.

Responses of trophic structure and zooplankton community to salinity and temperature in Tibetan lakes: Implication for the effect of climate warming.

PubMed

Lin, Qiuqi; Xu, Lei; Hou, Juzhi; Liu, Zhengwen; Jeppesen, Erik; Han, Bo-Ping

2017-11-01

Warming has pronounced effects on lake ecosystems, either directly by increased temperatures or indirectly by a change in salinity. We investigated the current status of zooplankton communities and trophic structure in 45 Tibetan lakes along a 2300 m altitude and a 76 g/l salinity gradient. Freshwater to hyposaline lakes mainly had three trophic levels: phytoplankton, small zooplankton and fish/Gammarus, while mesosaline to hypersaline lakes only had two: phytoplankton and large zooplankton. Zooplankton species richness declined significantly with salinity, but did not relate with temperature. Furthermore, the decline in species richness with salinity in lakes with two trophic levels was much less abrupt than in lakes with three trophic levels. The structural variation of the zooplankton community depended on the length of the food chain, and was significantly explained by salinity as the critical environmental variable. The zooplankton community shifted from dominance of copepods and small cladoceran species in the lakes with low salinity and three trophic levels to large saline filter-feeding phyllopod species in those lakes with high salinity and two trophic levels. The zooplankton to phytoplankton biomass ratio was positively related with temperature in two-trophic-level systems and vice versa in three-trophic-level systems. As the Tibetan Plateau is warming about three times faster than the global average, our results imply that warming could have a considerable impact on the structure and function of Tibetan lake ecosystems, either via indirect effects of salinization/desalinization on species richness, composition and trophic structure or through direct effects of water temperature on trophic interactions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.

2015-01-01

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

The thermal structure of the Venus atmosphere: Intercomparison of Venus Express and ground based observations of vertical temperature and density profiles✰

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Limaye, Sanjay S.; Lebonnois, Sebastien; Mahieux, Arnaud; Pätzold, Martin; Bougher, Steven; Bruinsma, Sean; Chamberlain, Sarah; Clancy, R. Todd; Gérard, Jean-Claude; Gilli, Gabriella; Grassi, Davide; Haus, Rainer; Herrmann, Maren; Imamura, Takeshi; Kohler, Erika; Krause, Pia; Migliorini, Alessandra; Montmessin, Franck; Pere, Christophe; Persson, Moa; Piccialli, Arianna; Rengel, Miriam; Rodin, Alexander; Sandor, Brad; Sornig, Manuela; Svedhem, Håkan; Tellmann, Silvia; Tanga, Paolo; Vandaele, Ann C.; Widemann, Thomas; Wilson, Colin F.; Müller-Wodarg, Ingo; Zasova, Ludmila

2017-09-01

The Venus International Reference Atmosphere (VIRA) model contains tabulated values of temperature and number densities obtained by the experiments on the Venera entry probes, Pioneer Venus Orbiter and multi-probe missions in the 1980s. The instruments on the recent Venus Express orbiter mission generated a significant amount of new observational data on the vertical and horizontal structure of the Venus atmosphere from 40 km to about 180 km altitude from April 2006 to November 2014. Many ground based experiments have provided data on the upper atmosphere (90-130 km) temperature structure since the publication of VIRA in 1985. The "Thermal Structure of the Venus Atmosphere" Team was supported by the International Space Studies Institute (ISSI), Bern, Switzerland, from 2013 to 2015 in order to combine and compare the ground-based observations and the VEx observations of the thermal structure as a first step towards generating an updated VIRA model. Results of this comparison are presented in five latitude bins and three local time bins by assuming hemispheric symmetry. The intercomparison of the ground-based and VEx results provides for the first time a consistent picture of the temperature and density structure in the 40 km-180 km altitude range. The Venus Express observations have considerably increased our knowledge of the Venus atmospheric thermal structure above ∼40 km and provided new information above 100 km. There are, however, still observational gaps in latitude and local time above certain regions. Considerable variability in the temperatures and densities is seen above 100 km but certain features appear to be systematically present, such as a succession of warm and cool layers. Preliminary modeling studies support the existence of such layers in agreement with a global scale circulation. The intercomparison focuses on average profiles but some VEx experiments provide sufficient global coverage to identify solar thermal tidal components. The differences between the VEx temperature profiles and the VIRA below 0.1 mbar/95 km are small. There is, however, a clear discrepancy at high latitudes in the 10-30 mbar (70-80 km) range. The VEx observations will also allow the improvement of the empirical models (VTS3 by Hedin et al., 1983 and VIRA by Keating et al., 1985) above 0.03 mbar/100 km, in particular the 100-150 km region where a sufficient observational coverage was previously missing. The next steps in order to define the updated VIRA temperature structure up to 150 km altitude are (1) define the grid on which this database may be provided, (2) fill what is possible with the results of the data intercomparison, and (3) fill the observational gaps. An interpolation between the datasets may be performed by using available General Circulation Models as guidelines. An improved spatial coverage of observations is still necessary at all altitudes, in latitude-longitude and at all local solar times for a complete description of the atmospheric thermal structure, in particular on the dayside above 100 km. New in-situ observations in the atmosphere below 40 km are missing, an altitude region that cannot be accessed by occultation experiments. All these questions need to be addressed by future missions.

Light and temperature shape nuclear architecture and gene expression.

PubMed

Kaiserli, Eirini; Perrella, Giorgio; Davidson, Mhairi Lh

2018-06-14

Environmental stimuli play a major role in modulating growth and development throughout the life-cycle of a plant. Quantitative and qualitative variations in light and temperature trigger changes in gene expression that ultimately shape plant morphology for adaptation and survival. Although the phenotypic and transcriptomic basis of plant responses to the constantly changing environment have been examined for decades, the relationship between global changes in nuclear architecture and adaption to environmental stimuli is just being uncovered. This review presents recent discoveries investigating how changes in light and temperature trigger changes in chromatin structure and nuclear organization with a focus on the role of gene repositioning and chromatin accessibility in regulating gene expression. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric CO2: principal control knob governing Earth's temperature.

PubMed

Lacis, Andrew A; Schmidt, Gavin A; Rind, David; Ruedy, Reto A

2010-10-15

Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is the single most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. This is because CO(2), like ozone, N(2)O, CH(4), and chlorofluorocarbons, does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO(2) and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound Earth state.

Wang-Landau density of states based study of the folding-unfolding transition in the mini-protein Trp-cage (TC5b)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Priya; Sarkar, Subir K.; Bandyopadhyay, Pradipta

2014-07-01

We present the results of a high-statistics equilibrium study of the folding/unfolding transition for the 20-residue mini-protein Trp-cage (TC5b) in water. The ECEPP/3 force field is used and the interaction with water is treated by a solvent-accessible surface area method. A Wang-Landau type simulation is used to calculate the density of states and the conditional probabilities for the various values of the radius of gyration and the number of native contacts at fixed values of energy—along with a systematic check on their convergence. All thermodynamic quantities of interest are calculated from this information. The folding-unfolding transition corresponds to a peak in the temperature dependence of the computed specific heat. This is corroborated further by the structural signatures of folding in the distributions for radius of gyration and the number of native contacts as a function of temperature. The potentials of mean force are also calculated for these variables, both separately and jointly. A local free energy minimum, in addition to the global minimum, is found in a temperature range substantially below the folding temperature. The free energy at this second minimum is approximately 5 kBT higher than the value at the global minimum.

Soil Microbial Community Responses to Long-Term Global Change Factors in a California Grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, K.; Peay, K.

2015-12-01

Soil fungal and bacterial communities act as mediators of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycling, and interact with the aboveground plant community as both pathogens and mutualists. However, these soil microbial communities are sensitive to changes in their environment. A better understanding of the response of soil microbial communities to global change may help to predict future soil microbial diversity, and assist in creating more comprehensive models of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles. This study examines the effects of four global change factors (increased temperature, increased variability in precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and CO2 enrichment) on soil microbial communities at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), a full-factorial global change manipulative experiment on three hectares of California grassland. While similar studies have examined the effects of global change on soil microbial communities, few have manipulated more factors or been longer in duration than the JRGCE, which began field treatments in 1998. We find that nitrogen deposition, CO2 enrichment, and increased variability in precipitation significantly affect the structure of both fungal and bacterial communities, and explain more of the variation in the community structures than do local soil chemistry or aboveground plant community. Fungal richness is correlated positively with soil nitrogen content and negatively with soil water content. Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF), which associate closely with herbaceous plants' roots and assist in nutrient uptake, decrease in both richness and relative abundance in elevated CO2 treatments.

Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

PubMed

Crabbe, M James C

2008-10-01

Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

Plant molecular responses to the elevated ambient temperatures expected under global climate change.

PubMed

Fei, Qionghui; Li, Jingjing; Luo, Yunhe; Ma, Kun; Niu, Bingtao; Mu, Changjun; Gao, Huanhuan; Li, Xiaofeng

2018-01-02

Environmental temperatures affect plant distribution, growth, and development. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that global temperatures will rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. Global temperature changes have already had a discernable impact on agriculture, phenology, and ecosystems. At the molecular level, extensive literature exists on the mechanism controlling plant responses to high temperature stress. However, few studies have focused on the molecular mechanisms behind plant responses to mild increases in ambient temperature. Previous research has found that moderately higher ambient temperatures can induce hypocotyl elongation and early flowering. Recent evidence demonstrates roles for the phytohormones auxin and ethylene in adaptive growth of plant roots to slightly higher ambient temperatures.

Global patterns in the impact of marine herbivores on benthic primary producers.

PubMed

Poore, Alistair G B; Campbell, Alexandra H; Coleman, Ross A; Edgar, Graham J; Jormalainen, Veijo; Reynolds, Pamela L; Sotka, Erik E; Stachowicz, John J; Taylor, Richard B; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Duffy, J Emmett

2012-08-01

Despite the importance of consumers in structuring communities, and the widespread assumption that consumption is strongest at low latitudes, empirical tests for global scale patterns in the magnitude of consumer impacts are limited. In marine systems, the long tradition of experimentally excluding herbivores in their natural environments allows consumer impacts to be quantified on global scales using consistent methodology. We present a quantitative synthesis of 613 marine herbivore exclusion experiments to test the influence of consumer traits, producer traits and the environment on the strength of herbivore impacts on benthic producers. Across the globe, marine herbivores profoundly reduced producer abundance (by 68% on average), with strongest effects in rocky intertidal habitats and the weakest effects on habitats dominated by vascular plants. Unexpectedly, we found little or no influence of latitude or mean annual water temperature. Instead, herbivore impacts differed most consistently among producer taxonomic and morphological groups. Our results show that grazing impacts on plant abundance are better predicted by producer traits than by large-scale variation in habitat or mean temperature, and that there is a previously unrecognised degree of phylogenetic conservatism in producer susceptibility to consumption. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Clean Power Generation from the Intractable Natural Coalfield Fires: Turn Harm into Benefit.

PubMed

Shi, Bobo; Su, Hetao; Li, Jinshi; Qi, Haining; Zhou, Fubao; Torero, José L; Chen, Zhongwei

2017-07-13

The coal fires, a global catastrophe for hundreds of years, have been proved extremely difficult to control, and hit almost every coal-bearing area globally. Meanwhile, underground coal fires contain tremendous reservoir of geothermal energy. Approximately one billion tons of coal burns underground annually in the world, which could generate ~1000 GW per annum. A game-changing approach, environmentally sound thermal energy extraction from the intractable natural coalfield fires, is being developed by utilizing the waste energy and reducing the temperature of coalfield fires at the same time. Based on the Seebeck effect of thermoelectric materials, the temperature difference between the heat medium and cooling medium was employed to directly convert thermal energy into clean electrical energy. By the time of December 2016, the power generation from a single borehole at Daquan Lake fire district in Xinjiang has been exceeded 174.6 W. The field trial demonstrates that it is possible to exploit and utilize the waste heat resources in the treated coal fire areas. It promises a significant impact on the structure of global energy generation and can also promote progress in thermoelectric conversion materials, geothermal exploration, underground coal fires control and other energy related areas.

Communication: Rigorous quantum dynamics of O + O{sub 2} exchange reactions on an ab initio potential energy surface substantiate the negative temperature dependence of rate coefficients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Yaqin; Sun, Zhigang, E-mail: zsun@dicp.ac.cn, E-mail: dawesr@mst.edu, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu; Center for Advanced Chemical Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, 96 Jinzhai Road, Hefei 230026

2014-08-28

The kinetics and dynamics of several O + O{sub 2} isotope exchange reactions have been investigated on a recently determined accurate global O{sub 3} potential energy surface using a time-dependent wave packet method. The agreement between calculated and measured rate coefficients is significantly improved over previous work. More importantly, the experimentally observed negative temperature dependence of the rate coefficients is for the first time rigorously reproduced theoretically. This negative temperature dependence can be attributed to the absence in the new potential energy surface of a submerged “reef” structure, which was present in all previous potential energy surfaces. In addition, contributionsmore » of rotational excited states of the diatomic reactant further accentuate the negative temperature dependence.« less

Temperature minima in the average thermal structure of the middle mesosphere (70 - 80 km) from analysis of 40- to 92-km SME global temperature profiles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clancy, R. Todd; Rusch, David W.; Callan, Michael T.

1994-01-01

Global temperatures have been derived for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) limb radiance profiles. The SME temperature represent fixed local time observations at 1400 - 1500 LT, with partial zonal coverage of 3 - 5 longitudes per day over the 1982-1986 period. These new SME temperatures are compared to the COSPAR International Ionosphere Reference Atmosphere 86 (CIRA 86) climatology (Fleming et al., 1990) as well as stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS); Barnett and Corney, 1984), National Meteorological Center (NMC); (Gelman et al., 1986), and individual lidar and rocket observations. Significant areas of disagreement between the SME and CIRA 86 mesospheric temperatures are 10 K warmer SME temperatures at altitudes above 80 km. The 1981-1982 SAMS temperatures are in much closer agreement with the SME temperatures between 40 and 75 km. Although much of the SME-CIRA 86 disagreement probably stems from the poor vertical resolution of the observations comprising the CIRA 86 modelm, some portion of the differences may reflect 5- to 10-year temporal variations in mesospheric temperatures. The CIRA 86 climatology is based on 1973-1978 measurements. Relatively large (1 K/yr) 5- to 10-year trends in temperatures as functions of longitude, latitude, and altitude have been observed for both the upper stratosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989a) and mesosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989b; Hauchecorne et al., 1991). The SME temperatures also exhibit enhanced amplitudes for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of upper mesospheric temperatures at low latitudes, which are not evident in the CIRA 86 climatology. The so-called mesospheric `temperature inversions' at wintertime midlatitudes, which have been observed by ground-based lidar (Hauschecorne et al., 1987) and rocket in situ measurements (Schmidlin, 1976), are shown to be a climatological aspect of the mesosphere, based on the SME observations.

Numerical modeling of the thin shallow solar dynamo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Bryan, J. B.; Jarboe, T. R.

2017-10-01

Nonlinear, numerical computation with the NIMROD code is used to explore and validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model [T.R. Jarboe et al. 2017], which explains the observed global temporal evolution (e.g. magnetic field reversal) and local surface structures (e.g. sunspots) of the sun. The key feature of this model is the presence and magnetic self-organization of global magnetic structures (GMS) lying just below the surface of the sun, which resemble 1D radial Taylor states of size comparable to the supergranule convection cells. First, we seek to validate the thin shallow solar dynamo model by reproducing the 11 year timescale for reversal of the solar magnetic field. Then, we seek to model formation of GMS from convection zone turbulence. Our computations simulate a slab covering a radial depth 3Mm and include differential rotation and gravity. Density, temperature, and resistivity profiles are taken from the Christensen-Dalsgaard model.

Genetic divergence and isolation by thermal environment in geothermal populations of an aquatic invertebrate.

PubMed

Johansson, M P; Quintela, M; Laurila, A

2016-09-01

Temperature is one of the most influential forces of natural selection impacting all biological levels. In the face of increasing global temperatures, studies over small geographic scales allowing investigations on the effects of gene flow are of great value for understanding thermal adaptation. Here, we investigated genetic population structure in the freshwater gastropod Radix balthica originating from contrasting thermal habitats in three areas of geothermal activity in Iceland. Snails from 32 sites were genotyped at 208 AFLP loci. Five AFLPs were identified as putatively under divergent selection in Lake Mývatn, a geothermal lake with an almost 20 °C difference in mean temperature across a distance of a few kilometres. In four of these loci, variation across all study populations was correlated with temperature. We found significant population structure in neutral markers both within and between the areas. Cluster analysis using neutral markers classified the sites mainly by geography, whereas analyses using markers under selection differentiated the sites based on temperature. Isolation by distance was stronger in the neutral than in the outlier loci. Pairwise differences based on outlier FST were significantly correlated with temperature at different spatial scales, even after correcting for geographic distance or neutral pairwise FST differences. In general, genetic variation decreased with increasing environmental temperature, possibly suggesting that natural selection had reduced the genetic diversity in the warm origin sites. Our results emphasize the influence of environmental temperature on the genetic structure of populations and suggest local thermal adaptation in these geothermal habitats. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The Warming Hiatus, Natural Variability and Thermal Ocean Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, A.; Moron, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Ghil, M.

2015-12-01

Long before the recent concern with the warming hiatus, Ghil and Vautard (1991, Nature) stated at the end of their abstract that "The oscillatory components [in global temperature time series] have combined (peak-to-peak) amplitudes of 0.2°C, and therefore limit our ability to predict whether the inferred secular warming of 0.005°C/yr will continue." Present capabilities of the advanced spectral methods introduced into the global warming problem by that paper permit us now to consider oscillatory aspects of natural variability in much greater detail. In a multivariate analysis of the upper-ocean thermal structure, we examine properties of the recent long-term changes and of the naturally occurring global-climate fluctuations on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. M. Ghil and associates (Ghil and Vautard 1991; Plaut et al. 1995, Science; Ghil et al. 2002, Rev. Geophys.), among others, have argued that this natural variability has some regularity embedded into it. Although the existence of such regularity on the interannual time scale is fairly well established by now, evidence for similar regularity on decadal and interdecadal time scales is more difficult to establish, due to the shortness of instrumental temperature data. To identify spatio-temporal patterns, we rely on the method of multichannel singular spectrum analysis [M-SSA; see Ghil et al. (2002) for a review] and on its recent improvements that help separate distinct patterns (Groth and Ghil 2011, Phys. Rev. E; Groth and Ghil 2015, J. Climate). Results on the temperature field from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis (Carton and Giese 2008, Mon. Wea. Rev.; Giese and Ray 2011, J. Geophys. Res.) will be shown and contrasted with results on the HadCRUT surface temperature dataset (Morice et al. 2012, J. Geophys. Res.). We will focus, in particular, on the robustness of the geographical distribution of long-term changes in both data sets and discuss the significance of superimposed natural regularities in the traditional context of red noise (Hasselmann 1976, Tellus A). Finally, we will discuss the extent to which these regularities could have contributed to the recent hiatus in the long-term changes, as predicted by Ghil and Vautard (1991).

The sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature, moisture, and carbon supply at the global scale.

PubMed

Hursh, Andrew; Ballantyne, Ashley; Cooper, Leila; Maneta, Marco; Kimball, John; Watts, Jennifer

2017-05-01

Soil respiration (Rs) is a major pathway by which fixed carbon in the biosphere is returned to the atmosphere, yet there are limits to our ability to predict respiration rates using environmental drivers at the global scale. While temperature, moisture, carbon supply, and other site characteristics are known to regulate soil respiration rates at plot scales within certain biomes, quantitative frameworks for evaluating the relative importance of these factors across different biomes and at the global scale require tests of the relationships between field estimates and global climatic data. This study evaluates the factors driving Rs at the global scale by linking global datasets of soil moisture, soil temperature, primary productivity, and soil carbon estimates with observations of annual Rs from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB). We find that calibrating models with parabolic soil moisture functions can improve predictive power over similar models with asymptotic functions of mean annual precipitation. Soil temperature is comparable with previously reported air temperature observations used in predicting Rs and is the dominant driver of Rs in global models; however, within certain biomes soil moisture and soil carbon emerge as dominant predictors of Rs. We identify regions where typical temperature-driven responses are further mediated by soil moisture, precipitation, and carbon supply and regions in which environmental controls on high Rs values are difficult to ascertain due to limited field data. Because soil moisture integrates temperature and precipitation dynamics, it can more directly constrain the heterotrophic component of Rs, but global-scale models tend to smooth its spatial heterogeneity by aggregating factors that increase moisture variability within and across biomes. We compare statistical and mechanistic models that provide independent estimates of global Rs ranging from 83 to 108 Pg yr -1 , but also highlight regions of uncertainty where more observations are required or environmental controls are hard to constrain. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

From Paris to Iowa and Back: Global Temperature Targets, Agricultural Impacts, and Producer Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C.; Hayhoe, K.; Terando, A. J.

2016-12-01

Traditionally, assessments such as those produced by IPCC and USGCRP have been structured to provide a one-way flow of information from scientists to national and international policy makers. Because the Paris Agreement will ultimately require corresponding domestic policies, the traditional one-way information flow could be inadequate, since it lacks both direct participation and informed feedback from many of the important entities that influence domestic policy. We have engaged Iowa row crop producers in identifying impacts and feasibility of adaptation under global warming of 1.0 and 2.0OC. Our engagement seeks to create within climate impacts assessment a decision-maker feedback loop. We have engaged an expert panel by using yield data modeling as a first step to communicate vividly the potential yield impacts of global average temperature targets. This engagement included validation with historical global average temperature before presenting yield impact under global mean surface temperature increase of 1.0 and 2.0OC. The expert panel requested further analysis of targets at 0.25 and 0.50OC increase and of possible impacts should they pursue adaptation by increasing maize plant population density and soil moisture storage. Several clear messages have emerged that can be voiced by Iowa agribusiness leaders to national and international decision-makers. While Iowa soybean agriculture may remain robust for the foreseeable future, the Paris Agreement is insufficient to protect Iowa maize production from substantial changes in productivity and volatility. These effects could be largely (though not entirely) mitigated by moving from the current +2OC to the "high ambition" +1.5OC target. The projected spring rainfall increase of 10% under +1OC would increase the cost of spring planting. The data model predicts a 5-day reduction in average number of fieldwork days, which requires the addition of one half-time person or larger planting equipment. The current annual rate of increase in maize plant density will maintain historical yield increase through +1OC but by +2OC is substantially reduced and results in unprecedented yield volatility. By increasing soil moisture during July, Iowa maize production can reduce markedly the impacts of +2OC.

H/C atomic ratio as a smart linkage between pyrolytic temperatures, aromatic clusters and sorption properties of biochars derived from diverse precursory materials

PubMed Central

Xiao, Xin; Chen, Zaiming; Chen, Baoliang

2016-01-01

Biochar is increasingly gaining attention due to multifunctional roles in soil amelioration, pollution mitigation and carbon sequestration. It is a significant challenge to compare the reported results from world-wide labs regarding the structure and sorption of biochars derived from various precursors under different pyrolytic conditions due to a lack of a simple linkage. By combining the published works on various biochars, we established a quantitative relationship between H/C atomic ratio and pyrolytic temperature (T), aromatic structure, and sorption properties for naphthalene and phenanthrene. A reverse sigmoid shape between T and the H/C ratio was observed, which was independent of the precursors of biochars, including the ash contents. Linear correlations of Freundlich parameters (N, log Kf) and sorption amount (log Qe, log QA) with H/C ratios were found. A rectangle-like model was proposed to predict the aromatic cluster sizes of biochars from their H/C ratios, and then a good structure-sorption relationship was derived. These quantitative relationships indicate that the H/C atomic ratio is a universal linkage to predict pyrolytic temperatures, aromatic cluster sizes, and sorption characteristics. This study would guide the global study of biochars toward being comparable, and then the development of the structure-sorption relationships will benefit the structural design and environmental application of biochars. PMID:26940984

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

Observing changes in atmospheric heat content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-10-01

Globally, air temperatures near the surface over land have been rising in recent decades, and this has been presented as solid evidence of global warming. However, some scientists have argued that total heat content (energy), rather than temperature, should be used as a metric of warming trends. Surface air temperature is only one component of the energy content of the surface atmosphere—kinetic energy and latent heat also contribute. Peterson et al. present the first study to use observational data to estimate global changes in surface energy of the atmosphere over time. They include temperature, kinetic energy, and latent heat in their analysis. The authors found that total global surface atmospheric energy and heat content have increased since the 1970s, even though kinetic energy decreased slightly and in some regions latent heat declined while temperature increased.

Recent Development on the NOAA's Global Surface Temperature Dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, H. M.; Huang, B.; Boyer, T.; Lawrimore, J. H.; Menne, M. J.; Rennie, J.

2016-12-01

Global Surface Temperature (GST) is one of the most widely used indicators for climate trend and extreme analyses. A widely used GST dataset is the NOAA merged land-ocean surface temperature dataset known as NOAAGlobalTemp (formerly MLOST). The NOAAGlobalTemp had recently been updated from version 3.5.4 to version 4. The update includes a significant improvement in the ocean surface component (Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature or ERSST, from version 3b to version 4) which resulted in an increased temperature trends in recent decades. Since then, advancements in both the ocean component (ERSST) and land component (GHCN-Monthly) have been made, including the inclusion of Argo float SSTs and expanded EOT modes in ERSST, and the use of ISTI databank in GHCN-Monthly. In this presentation, we describe the impact of those improvements on the merged global temperature dataset, in terms of global trends and other aspects.

On nonstationarity and antipersistency in global temperature series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KäRner, O.

2002-10-01

Statistical analysis is carried out for satellite-based global daily tropospheric and stratospheric temperature anomaly and solar irradiance data sets. Behavior of the series appears to be nonstationary with stationary daily increments. Estimating long-range dependence between the increments reveals a remarkable difference between the two temperature series. Global average tropospheric temperature anomaly behaves similarly to the solar irradiance anomaly. Their daily increments show antipersistency for scales longer than 2 months. The property points at a cumulative negative feedback in the Earth climate system governing the tropospheric variability during the last 22 years. The result emphasizes a dominating role of the solar irradiance variability in variations of the tropospheric temperature and gives no support to the theory of anthropogenic climate change. The global average stratospheric temperature anomaly proceeds like a 1-dim random walk at least up to 11 years, allowing good presentation by means of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for monthly series.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodgers, Theron M.; Madison, Jonathan D.; Tikare, Veena

Additive manufacturing (AM) is of tremendous interest given its ability to realize complex, non-traditional geometries in engineered structural materials. But, microstructures generated from AM processes can be equally, if not more, complex than their conventionally processed counterparts. While some microstructural features observed in AM may also occur in more traditional solidification processes, the introduction of spatially and temporally mobile heat sources can result in significant microstructural heterogeneity. While grain size and shape in metal AM structures are understood to be highly dependent on both local and global temperature profiles, the exact form of this relation is not well understood. Wemore » implement an idealized molten zone and temperature-dependent grain boundary mobility in a kinetic Monte Carlo model to predict three-dimensional grain structure in additively manufactured metals. In order to demonstrate the flexibility of the model, synthetic microstructures are generated under conditions mimicking relatively diverse experimental results present in the literature. Simulated microstructures are then qualitatively and quantitatively compared to their experimental complements and are shown to be in good agreement.« less

The geothermal gradient map of Central Tunisia: Comparison with structural, gravimetric and petroleum data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhia, Hamed Ben

1987-10-01

Five hundred and fifty temperature values, initially measured as either bottom-hole temperatures (BHT) or drill-stem tests (DST), from 98 selected petroleum exploration wells form the basis of a geothermal gradient map of central Tunisia. A "global-statistical" method was employed to correct the BHT measurements, using the DST as references. The geothermal gradient ranges from 23° to 49°C/km. Comparison of the geothermal gradient with structural, gravimetric and petroleum data indicates that: (1) the general trend of the geothermal gradient curves reflects the main structural directions of the region, (2) zones of low and high geothermal gradient are correlated with zones of negative and positive Bouguer anomalies and (3) the five most important oil fields of central Tunisia are located near the geothermal gradient curve of 40° C/km. Such associations could have practical importance in petroleum exploration, but their significance must first be established through further investigation and additional data.

Tomographic Validation of the AWSoM Model of the Inner Corona During Solar Minima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manchester, W.; Vásquez, A. M.; Lloveras, D. G.; Mac Cormack, C.; Nuevo, F.; Lopez-Fuentes, M.; Frazin, R. A.; van der Holst, B.; Landi, E.; Gombosi, T. I.

2017-12-01

Continuous improvement of MHD three-dimensional (3D) models of the global solar corona, such as the Alfven Wave Solar Model (AWSoM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), requires testing their ability to reproduce observational constraints at a global scale. To that end, solar rotational tomography based on EUV image time-series can be used to reconstruct the 3D distribution of the electron density and temperature in the inner solar corona (r < 1.25 Rsun). The tomographic results, combined with a global coronal magnetic model, can further provide constraints on the energy input flux required at the coronal base to maintain stable structures. In this work, tomographic reconstructions are used to validate steady-state 3D MHD simulations of the inner corona using the latest version of the AWSoM model. We perform the study for selected rotations representative of solar minimum conditions, when the global structure of the corona is more axisymmetric. We analyse in particular the ability of the MHD simulation to match the tomographic results across the boundary region between the equatorial streamer belt and the surrounding coronal holes. The region is of particular interest as the plasma flow from that zone is thought to be related to the origin of the slow component of the solar wind.

Global Electromagnetic Imaging of Lithosphere and Upper Mantle from Space and Ground. Recent Results and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuvshinov, A. V.

2016-12-01

Electrical conductivity is one of the characteristic physical parameters of materials making up Earth's interior which is sensitive to variations of temperature, chemical composition, water content, and partial melt. As a consequence, estimating lithosphere and upper mantle (LUM) electrical conductivity structure is a potentially strong tool for mapping their chemistry, mineralogy and physical structure thus presenting a complementary method to seismic studies that focus on LUM elastic properties. Global electromagnetic (EM) studies, which provide information on LUM electrical conductivity, have attracted increasing interest during the last decade, mainly for three reasons. A primary reason is the recent growth in the amount of EM data available, especially from low-Earth orbiting magnetic satellite missions (Oersted, CHAMP, SAC-C, and Swarm). A second reason is the great interest in the characterization of the three-dimensional properties of Earth's interior on a global scale. Finally, the interest has also resulted from the significant methodological progress made during the last years in EM data analysis, forward modelling and inversion. In this talk I will summarize advances and challenges in EM data interpretation, and present recent global and regional models of LUM conductivity derived from satellite and ground-based data. I will also discuss possible topics for future research.

Electromagnetic studies of global geodynamic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarits, Pascal

1994-03-01

The deep electromagnetic sounding (DES) technique is one of the few geophysical methods, along with seismology, gravity, heat flow, which may be use to probe the structure of the Earth's mantle directly. The interpretation of the DESs may provide electrical conductivity profiles down to the upper part of the lower mantle. The electrical conductivity is extremely sensitive to most of the thermodynamic processes we believe are acting in the Earth's mantle (temperature increases, partial melting, phase transition and to a lesser extent pressure). Therefore, in principle, results from DES along with laboratory measurements could be used to constrain models of these processes. The DES technique is reviewed in the light of recent results obtained in a variety of domains: data acquisition and analysis, global induction modeling and data inversion and interpretation. The mechanisms and the importance of surface distortions of the DES data are reviewed and techniques to model them are discussed. The recent results in terms of the conductivity distribution in the mantle from local and global DES are presented and a tentative synthesis is proposed. The geodynamic interpretations of the deep conductivity structures are reviewed. The existence of mantle lateral heterogeneities in conductivity at all scales and depths for which electromagnetic data are available is now well documented. A comparison with global results from seismology is presented.

Structure in sheared supercooled liquids: Dynamical rearrangements of an effective system of icosahedra.

PubMed

Pinney, Rhiannon; Liverpool, Tanniemola B; Royall, C Patrick

2016-12-21

We consider a binary Lennard-Jones glassformer whose super-Arrhenius dynamics are correlated with the formation of particles organized into icosahedra under simple steady state shear. We recast this glassformer as an effective system of icosahedra [Pinney et al., J. Chem. Phys. 143, 244507 (2015)]. From the observed population of icosahedra in each steady state, we obtain an effective temperature which is linearly dependent on the shear rate in the range considered. Upon shear banding, the system separates into a region of high shear rate and a region of low shear rate. The effective temperatures obtained in each case show that the low shear regions correspond to a significantly lower temperature than the high shear regions. Taking a weighted average of the effective temperature of these regions (weight determined by region size) yields an estimate of the effective temperature which compares well with an effective temperature based on the global mesocluster population of the whole system.

Tree-Structured Methods for Prediction and Data Visualization

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-18

which variables are most important for predicting smoking abstinence . GUIDE, on the other hand, can model interactions of any order. Fur- ther, it...tree for predicting smoking abstinence after one week of treatment. An observation goes to the left node if and only if the stated condition is...H. E., and Loh, W.-Y. (2009). Which surface atmospheric variable drives the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature over the global ocean

Evaluation of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) air temperature data products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ji, Lei; Senay, Gabriel B.; Verdin, James P.

2015-01-01

There is a high demand for agrohydrologic models to use gridded near-surface air temperature data as the model input for estimating regional and global water budgets and cycles. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) developed by combining simulation models with observations provides a long-term gridded meteorological dataset at the global scale. However, the GLDAS air temperature products have not been comprehensively evaluated, although the accuracy of the products was assessed in limited areas. In this study, the daily 0.25° resolution GLDAS air temperature data are compared with two reference datasets: 1) 1-km-resolution gridded Daymet data (2002 and 2010) for the conterminous United States and 2) global meteorological observations (2000–11) archived from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). The comparison of the GLDAS datasets with the GHCN datasets, including 13 511 weather stations, indicates a fairly high accuracy of the GLDAS data for daily temperature. The quality of the GLDAS air temperature data, however, is not always consistent in different regions of the world; for example, some areas in Africa and South America show relatively low accuracy. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal a high agreement between GLDAS and Daymet daily air temperature datasets, although spatial details in high mountainous areas are not sufficiently estimated by the GLDAS data. The evaluation of the GLDAS data demonstrates that the air temperature estimates are generally accurate, but caution should be taken when the data are used in mountainous areas or places with sparse weather stations.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

Three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation: part II—dynamical equations of horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Shujuan; Cheng, Jianbo; Xu, Ming; Chou, Jifan

2018-04-01

The three-pattern decomposition of global atmospheric circulation (TPDGAC) partitions three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric circulation into horizontal, meridional and zonal components to study the 3D structures of global atmospheric circulation. This paper incorporates the three-pattern decomposition model (TPDM) into primitive equations of atmospheric dynamics and establishes a new set of dynamical equations of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations in which the operator properties are studied and energy conservation laws are preserved, as in the primitive equations. The physical significance of the newly established equations is demonstrated. Our findings reveal that the new equations are essentially the 3D vorticity equations of atmosphere and that the time evolution rules of the horizontal, meridional and zonal circulations can be described from the perspective of 3D vorticity evolution. The new set of dynamical equations includes decomposed expressions that can be used to explore the source terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation variations. A simplified model is presented to demonstrate the potential applications of the new equations for studying the dynamics of the Rossby, Hadley and Walker circulations. The model shows that the horizontal air temperature anomaly gradient (ATAG) induces changes in meridional and zonal circulations and promotes the baroclinic evolution of the horizontal circulation. The simplified model also indicates that the absolute vorticity of the horizontal circulation is not conserved, and its changes can be described by changes in the vertical vorticities of the meridional and zonal circulations. Moreover, the thermodynamic equation shows that the induced meridional and zonal circulations and advection transport by the horizontal circulation in turn cause a redistribution of the air temperature. The simplified model reveals the fundamental rules between the evolution of the air temperature and the horizontal, meridional and zonal components of global atmospheric circulation.

Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

2015-12-01

Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

Visible Wavelength Exoplanet Phase Curves from Global Albedo Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webber, Matthew; Cahoy, Kerri Lynn

2015-01-01

To investigate the effect of three-dimensional global albedo maps we use an albedo model that: calculates albedo spectra for each points across grid in longitude and latitude on the planetary disk, uses the appropriate angles for the source-observer geometry for each location, and then weights and sums these spectra using the Tschebychev-Gauss integration method. This structure permits detailed 3D modeling of an illuminated planetary disk and computes disk-integrated phase curves. Different pressure-temperature profiles are used for each location based on geometry and dynamics. We directly couple high-density pressure maps from global dynamic radiative-transfer models to compute global cloud maps. Cloud formation is determined from the correlation of the species condensation curves with the temperature-pressure profiles. We use the detailed cloud patterns, of spatial-varying composition and temperature, to determine the observable albedo spectra and phase curves for exoplanets Kepler-7b and HD189733b. These albedo spectra are used to compute planet-star flux ratios using PHOENIX stellar models, exoplanet orbital parameters, and telescope transmission functions. Insight from the Earthshine spectrum and solid surface albedo functions (e.g. water, ice, snow, rocks) are used with our planetary grid to determine the phase curve and flux ratios of non-uniform Earth and Super Earth-like exoplanets with various rotation rates and stellar types. Predictions can be tailored to the visible and Near-InfraRed (NIR) spectral windows for the Kepler space telescope, Hubble space telescope, and future observatories (e.g. WFIRST, JWST, Exo-C, Exo-S). Additionally, we constrain the effect of exoplanet urban-light on the shape of the night-side phase curve for Earths and Super-Earths.

Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Long-Tailed Climate Sensitivity Probability Density Distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, E.; Mohammadi Khabbazan, M.; Held, H.

2016-12-01

Solar radiation management (SRM) might be able to reduce the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities due to changes in planetary energy budget. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate risks from exceeding an environmental target. Here, in both global- and `Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we study the optimal mix of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic knowledge about climate sensitivity, in our numerics ranging from 1.01°C to 7.17°C. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including temperature risk, global and regional precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized in three scenarios, considering a convex combination of climate risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. Our global results represent 100%, 65%, and 90% compliance with 2°C-temperature target and simultaneously 0%, 100%, and 100% compliance with 2°C-compatible-precipitation corridor respectively in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios. On the other hand, our regional results emphasize that SRM would alleviate the global mean temperature to be complied with 2°C-temperature target for about 100%, 95%, and 95% of climate sensitivities in temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and both-risks scenarios, respectively. However, half of the regions suffer a very high precipitation risks when the society only cares about global temperature reduction in temperature-risk-only scenario. Our results indicate that although SRM might almost substitute for mitigation in the global analysis, it only saves about a half of the welfare-loss in a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks.

Global Picosecond Structural Dynamics of Orange Carotenoid Protein in Photo/Chemical Activated Signaling States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Yanting; Xu, Mengyang; Liu, Hanjun; Blankenship, Robert; Markelz, Andrea

Light availability to photosynthetic organisms changes throughout the day. High light can over-saturate photosynthetic capacity and produce reactive oxygen which damages the photosynthetic apparatus and leads to cell death. Photosynthetic organisms have evolved multiple photo-protective strategies to prevent oxidative damage from light stress. For cyanobacteria, a blue-light photo-sensor orange carotenoid protein (OCP) responds to exposure to intense light. Upon high light stress, OCP converts from the orange inactive form (OCPO) to the red active form (OCPR) , with a large conformational change. And OCPR interacts with the light harvesting antenna phycobilisome (PB), and mediates the energy quenching of PB. We argue that both the susceptibility of OCP to large conformational change and its interaction with PB are associated with changes in the long range picosecond structural flexibility. To investigate the protein flexibility with signaling state dependence, temperature dependent terahertz time domain spectroscopy is performed in the range of 80 - 290 K on OCP solutions, as a function of illumination and chaotrope (NaSCN) concentration, which produces a long lived red state in the absence of photoexcitation. We characterize the global flexibility by both the net THz absorbance and the dynamical transition temperature, which scales with structural stability, and observed the dynamical transition occurred in the 180-220 K range. R.E.B. acknowledges DOE award DE-FG02- 07ER15902 and A.G.M. acknowledges NSF awards DBI 1556359 and MCB 1616529, and DOE award DE-SC0016317 for support of the work.

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change.

PubMed

Teitelbaum, Claire S; Converse, Sarah J; Fagan, William F; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-09-06

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

PubMed Central

Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E.; Mueller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution. PMID:27597446

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

PubMed Central

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A.

2016-01-01

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes. PMID:27886199

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Experience drives innovation of new migration patterns of whooping cranes in response to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Teitelbaum, Claire S.; Converse, Sarah J.; Fagan, William F.; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; O'Hara, Robert B.; Lacy, Anne E; Mueller, Thomas

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic changes in climate and land use are driving changes in migration patterns of birds worldwide. Spatial changes in migration have been related to long-term temperature trends, but the intrinsic mechanisms by which migratory species adapt to environmental change remain largely unexplored. We show that, for a long-lived social species, older birds with more experience are critical for innovating new migration behaviours. Groups containing older, more experienced individuals establish new overwintering sites closer to the breeding grounds, leading to a rapid population-level shift in migration patterns. Furthermore, these new overwintering sites are in areas where changes in climate have increased temperatures and where food availability from agriculture is high, creating favourable conditions for overwintering. Our results reveal that the age structure of populations is critical for the behavioural mechanisms that allow species to adapt to global change, particularly for long-lived animals, where changes in behaviour can occur faster than evolution.

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons.

PubMed

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R; Leung, L Ruby; Emanuel, Kerry A

2016-11-25

Super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall in places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961-2008 is ∼53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.

Global warming-induced upper-ocean freshening and the intensification of super typhoons

DOE PAGES

Balaguru, Karthik; Foltz, Gregory R.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-11-25

Here, super typhoons (STYs), intense tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific, rank among the most destructive natural hazards globally. The violent winds of these storms induce deep mixing of the upper ocean, resulting in strong sea surface cooling and making STYs highly sensitive to ocean density stratification. Although a few studies examined the potential impacts of changes in ocean thermal structure on future tropical cyclones, they did not take into account changes in near-surface salinity. Here, using a combination of observations and coupled climate model simulations, we show that freshening of the upper ocean, caused by greater rainfall inmore » places where typhoons form, tends to intensify STYs by reducing their ability to cool the upper ocean. We further demonstrate that the strengthening effect of this freshening over the period 1961–2008 is ~53% stronger than the suppressive effect of temperature, whereas under twenty-first century projections, the positive effect of salinity is about half of the negative effect of ocean temperature changes.« less

Global sensitivity analysis for identifying important parameters of nitrogen nitrification and denitrification under model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhuowei; Shi, Liangsheng; Ye, Ming; Zhu, Yan; Yang, Jinzhong

2018-06-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. By using a new variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters for nitrogen reactive transport with simultaneous consideration of these three uncertainties. A combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture creates a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models describing the effect of soil temperature and moisture content are used to evaluate the reduction functions used for calculating actual reaction rates. The results show that for nitrogen reactive transport problem, parameter importance varies substantially among different models and scenarios. Denitrification and nitrification process is sensitive to soil moisture content status rather than to the moisture function parameter. Nitrification process becomes more important at low moisture content and low temperature. However, the changing importance of nitrification activity with respect to temperature change highly relies on the selected model. Model-averaging is suggested to assess the nitrification (or denitrification) contribution by reducing the possible model error. Despite the introduction of biochemical heterogeneity or not, fairly consistent parameter importance rank is obtained in this study: optimal denitrification rate (Kden) is the most important parameter; reference temperature (Tr) is more important than temperature coefficient (Q10); empirical constant in moisture response function (m) is the least important one. Vertical distribution of soil moisture but not temperature plays predominant role controlling nitrogen reaction. This study provides insight into the nitrogen reactive transport modeling and demonstrates an effective strategy of selecting the important parameters when future temperature and soil moisture carry uncertainties or when modelers face with multiple ways of establishing nitrogen models.

The effects of variable biome distribution on global climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noever, D.A.; Brittain, A.; Matsos, H.C.

1996-12-31

In projecting climatic adjustments to anthropogenically elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, most global climate models fix biome distribution to current geographic conditions. The authors develop a model that examines the albedo-related effects of biome distribution on global temperature. The model was tested on historical biome changes since 1860 and the results fit both the observed trend and order of magnitude change in global temperature. Once backtested in this way on historical data, the model is then used to generate an optimized future biome distribution which minimizes projected greenhouse effects on global temperature. Because of the complexity of this combinatorial search anmore » artificial intelligence method, the genetic algorithm, was employed. The genetic algorithm assigns various biome distributions to the planet, then adjusts their percentage area and albedo effects to regulate or moderate temperature changes.« less

NASA's Earth Observations of the Global Environment: Our Changing Planet and the View from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, michael D.

2005-01-01

A birds eye view of the Earth from afar and up close reveals the power and magnificence of the Earth and juxtaposes the simultaneous impacts and powerlessness of humankind. The NASA Electronic Theater presents Earth science observations and visualizations in an historical perspective. See the latest spectacular images from NASA remote sensing missions like TRMM, SeaWiFS, Landsat 7, Terra, and Aqua, which will be visualized and explained in the context of global change and man s impact on our world s environment. See visualizations of global data sets currently available from Earth orbiting satellites, including the Earth at night with its city lights. Shown in high resolution are visualizations of tropical cyclone Eline and the resulting flooding of Mozambique. See flybys of Cape Town, South Africa with its dramatic mountains and landscape, as well as satellite imagery of fires that occurred globally, with a special emphasis on fires in the western US during summer 2001, and how new satellite tools can be used to help fight these disasters from spreading further. See where and when lightning occurs globally, and how dramatic urbanization has been in the desert southwest since 1910. Spectacular visualizations of the global atmosphere and oceans are shown. Learn when and where carbon is absorbed by vegetation on the land and ocean as the product of photosynthesis. See demonstrations of the 3-dimensional structure of hurricanes and cloud structures derived from recently launched Earth-orbiting satellites, and how hurricanes can modify the sea surface temperature in their wake. See massive dust storms in the Middle East as well as dust transport sweeping from north Africa across the Atlantic to the Caribbean and Amazon basin. Learn where and how much the temperature of the Earth s surface has changed during the 20th century, as well as how sea ice has decreased over the Arctic region, how sea level has and is likely to continue to change, and how glaciers have retreated worldwide in a response to global change. We will illustrate these and other topics with a dynamic theater-style presentation, along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

Europe's mild winters, due to offshore wind-farms, shipping and fishery?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernaerts, A.

2016-02-01

The winter 2014/15 was no winter in Northern Europa. In Europe the mean average temperature during the last century has risen by 0.9°C. In the last 30 years the tendency of warming per decade with about 0.41°C was significantly higher than the global mean of +0.17°C. Warming in central and northern Europe was very strong and winter temperatures rose faster than summer temperatures, and water temperatures in the North Sea and Baltic increased more than in other oceans. Can anthropogene activities between the English Channel and the Gulf of Finland be made partly responsible? Presumably yes! Stirring hot coffee will cool it down. At the end of August the sea areas have gained their maximum potential of warmth. Many ship propellers are plowing through the sea stirring the surface layer to a depth of 15 meters and more. In the North Sea and Baltic, ten thousand and more motor ships are simultaneously at sea. Several thousand offshore facilities on the bottom of the sea or anchored offshore rigs divert currents at sea and influence tides and currents as a permanent resistance against the normal flow of huge amounts of ocean water. The result is like stirring hot liquids. Warm water will come to the surface and the heat will supply the atmosphere with warmth. The air will become warmer and the winters will be milder. The correlation is not to be overseen. It is not relevant to climate research and agencies allowing offshore structures and they are neglecting such evaluations. Summary: The facts are conclusive. "Global Climate Change" cannot cause a special rise in temperatures in Northern Europe, neither in the North Sea nor the Baltic or beyond. Any use of the oceans by mankind has an influence on thermo-haline structures within the water column from a few cm to 10m and more. Noticeable warmer winters in Europe are the logical consequence.

Urea-temperature phase diagrams capture the thermodynamics of denatured state expansion that accompany protein unfolding

PubMed Central

Tischer, Alexander; Auton, Matthew

2013-01-01

We have analyzed the thermodynamic properties of the von Willebrand factor (VWF) A3 domain using urea-induced unfolding at variable temperature and thermal unfolding at variable urea concentrations to generate a phase diagram that quantitatively describes the equilibrium between native and denatured states. From this analysis, we were able to determine consistent thermodynamic parameters with various spectroscopic and calorimetric methods that define the urea–temperature parameter plane from cold denaturation to heat denaturation. Urea and thermal denaturation are experimentally reversible and independent of the thermal scan rate indicating that all transitions are at equilibrium and the van't Hoff and calorimetric enthalpies obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions are equivalent demonstrating two-state character. Global analysis of the urea–temperature phase diagram results in a significantly higher enthalpy of unfolding than obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions and significant cross correlations describing the urea dependence of and that define a complex temperature dependence of the m-value. Circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy illustrates a large increase in secondary structure content of the urea-denatured state as temperature increases and a loss of secondary structure in the thermally denatured state upon addition of urea. These structural changes in the denatured ensemble make up ∼40% of the total ellipticity change indicating a highly compact thermally denatured state. The difference between the thermodynamic parameters obtained from phase diagram analysis and those obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions illustrates that phase diagrams capture both contributions to unfolding and denatured state expansion and by comparison are able to decipher these contributions. PMID:23813497

Global mean sea level - Indicator of climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, A.; Hansen, J.; Gornitz, V.; Lebedeff, S.; Moore, E.; Etkins, R.; Epstein, E.

1983-01-01

A critical discussion is presented on the use by Etkins and Epstein (1982) of combined surface air temperature and sea level time series to draw conclusions concerning the discharge of the polar ice sheets. It is objected by Robock that they used Northern Hemisphere land surface air temperature records which are unrepresentative of global sea surface temperature, and he suggests that externally imposed volcanic dust and CO2 forcings can adequately account for observed temperature changes over the last century, with global sea level changing in passive response to sea change as a result of thermal expansion. Hansen et al. adduce evidence for global cooling due to ice discharge that has not exceeded a few hundredths of a degree centigrade in the last century, precluding any importance of this phenomenon in the interpretation of global mean temperature trends for this period. Etkins and Epstein reply that since their 1982 report additional evidence has emerged for the hypothesis that the polar ice caps are diminishing. It is reasserted that each of the indices discussed, including global mean sea surface temperature and sea level, polar ice sheet mass balance, water mass characteristics, and the spin rate and axis of rotation displacement of the earth, are physically linked and can be systematically monitored, as is currently being planned under the auspices of the National Climate Program.

A physically based model of global freshwater surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Eikelboom, Tessa; Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2012-09-01

Temperature determines a range of physical properties of water and exerts a strong control on surface water biogeochemistry. Thus, in freshwater ecosystems the thermal regime directly affects the geographical distribution of aquatic species through their growth and metabolism and indirectly through their tolerance to parasites and diseases. Models used to predict surface water temperature range between physically based deterministic models and statistical approaches. Here we present the initial results of a physically based deterministic model of global freshwater surface temperature. The model adds a surface water energy balance to river discharge modeled by the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. In addition to advection of energy from direct precipitation, runoff, and lateral exchange along the drainage network, energy is exchanged between the water body and the atmosphere by shortwave and longwave radiation and sensible and latent heat fluxes. Also included are ice formation and its effect on heat storage and river hydraulics. We use the coupled surface water and energy balance model to simulate global freshwater surface temperature at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of 0.5° on a regular grid for the period 1976-2000. We opt to parameterize the model with globally available data and apply it without calibration in order to preserve its physical basis with the outlook of evaluating the effects of atmospheric warming on freshwater surface temperature. We validate our simulation results with daily temperature data from rivers and lakes (U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), limited to the USA) and compare mean monthly temperatures with those recorded in the Global Environment Monitoring System (GEMS) data set. Results show that the model is able to capture the mean monthly surface temperature for the majority of the GEMS stations, while the interannual variability as derived from the USGS and NOAA data was captured reasonably well. Results are poorest for the Arctic rivers because the timing of ice breakup is predicted too late in the year due to the lack of including a mechanical breakup mechanism. Moreover, surface water temperatures for tropical rivers were overestimated, most likely due to an overestimation of rainfall temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. The spatiotemporal variation of water temperature reveals large temperature differences between water and atmosphere for the higher latitudes, while considerable lateral transport of heat can be observed for rivers crossing hydroclimatic zones, such as the Nile, the Mississippi, and the large rivers flowing to the Arctic. Overall, our model results show promise for future projection of global surface freshwater temperature under global change.

Dynamical Structure of Madden-Julian Oscillation over Malay Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djamil, Y. S.; Koh, T. Y.; Chandimala, J.; Teo, C. K.

2014-12-01

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant weather event in the intraseasonal time scale over Malay Peninsula region. The MJO signals are represented by the first two modes of radiosonde records extracted using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Function (EEOF) analyses which we label as Local Multivariate MJO (LMM). LMM is able to capture the spatio-temporal profile of MJO along the global tropics in all seasons. With the help of LMM, we clarify the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the MJO over Malay Peninsula, including the unique "boomerang-shaped" feature in the time-height temperature profile identified in previous literature.

Sea surface temperature measurements with AIRS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, H.

2003-01-01

The comparison of global sea surface skin temperature derived from cloud-free AIRS super window channel at 2616 cm-1 (sst2616) with the Real-Time Global Sea Surface Temperature for September 2002 shows surprisingly small standard deviation of 0.44K.

Self-consistent current sheet structures in the quiet-time magnetotail

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holland, Daniel L.; Chen, James

1993-01-01

The structure of the quiet-time magnetotail is studied using a test particle simulation. Vlasov equilibria are obtained in the regime where v(D) = E(y) c/B(z) is much less than the ion thermal velocity and are self-consistent in that the current and magnetic field satisfy Ampere's law. Force balance between the plasma and magnetic field is satisfied everywhere. The global structure of the current sheet is found to be critically dependent on the source distribution function. The pressure tensor is nondiagonal in the current sheet with anisotropic temperature. A kinetic mechanism is proposed whereby changes in the source distribution results in a thinning of the current sheet.

Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.

PubMed

Mauck, Robert A; Dearborn, Donald C; Huntington, Charles E

2018-04-01

The salient feature of anthropogenic climate change over the last century has been the rise in global mean temperature. However, global mean temperature is not used as an explanatory variable in studies of population-level response to climate change, perhaps because the signal-to-noise ratio of this gross measure makes its effect difficult to detect in any but the longest of datasets. Using a population of Leach's storm-petrels breeding in the Bay of Fundy, we tested whether local, regional, or global temperature measures are the best index of reproductive success in the face of climate change in species that travel widely between and within seasons. With a 56-year dataset, we found that annual global mean temperature (AGMT) was the single most important predictor of hatching success, more so than regional sea surface temperatures (breeding season or winter) and local air temperatures at the nesting colony. Storm-petrel reproductive success showed a quadratic response to rising temperatures, in that hatching success increased up to some critical temperature, and then declined when AGMT exceeded that temperature. The year at which AGMT began to consistently exceed that critical temperature was 1988. Importantly, in this population of known-age individuals, the impact of changing climate was greatest on inexperienced breeders: reproductive success of inexperienced birds increased more rapidly as temperatures rose and declined more rapidly after the tipping point than did reproductive success of experienced individuals. The generality of our finding that AGMT is the best predictor of reproductive success in this system may hinge on two things. First, an integrative global measure may be best for species in which individuals move across an enormous spatial range, especially within seasons. Second, the length of our dataset and our capacity to account for individual- and age-based variation in reproductive success increase our ability to detect a noisy signal. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The impact of half-a-degree Celsius upon the spatial pattern of future sea-level change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Luke

2017-04-01

It has been shown that the global thermal expansion of sea level and ocean dynamics are linearly related to global temperature change. On this basis one can estimate the difference in local sea-level change between a 1.5°C and 2.0°C world. The mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 shows an end-of-century global temperature range of 0.9 to 2.3°C (median 1.6°C). Additional sea-level components, such as mass changes in ice sheets, glaciers and land-water storage have unique spatial patterns that contribute to sea-level change and will be indirectly affected by global temperature change. We project local sea-level change for RCP 2.6 using sub-sets of models in the CMIP5 archive that follow different global temperature pathways. The method used to calculate local sea-level change is probabilistic and combines the normalised spatial patterns of sea-level components with global average projections of individual sea-level components.

Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Li, Chongyin

2018-04-01

Inconsistent global/basin ocean heat content (OHC) changes were found in different ocean subsurface temperature analyses, especially in recent studies related to the slowdown in global surface temperature rise. This finding challenges the reliability of the ocean subsurface temperature analyses and motivates a more comprehensive inter-comparison between the analyses. Here we compare the OHC changes in three ocean analyses (Ishii, EN4 and IAP) to investigate the uncertainty in OHC in four major ocean basins from decadal to multi-decadal scales. First, all products show an increase of OHC since 1970 in each ocean basin revealing a robust warming, although the warming rates are not identical. The geographical patterns, the key modes and the vertical structure of OHC changes are consistent among the three datasets, implying that the main OHC variabilities can be robustly represented. However, large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300-700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Furthermore, the near surface analysis of Ishii and IAP are consistent with sea surface temperature (SST) products, but EN4 is found to underestimate the long-term trend. Compared with ocean heat storage derived from the atmospheric budget equation, all products show consistent seasonal cycles of OHC in the upper 1500 m especially during 2008 to 2012. Overall, our analyses further the understanding of the observed OHC variations, and we recommend a careful quantification of errors in the ocean analyses.

CLIMATE CHANGE. Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus.

PubMed

Karl, Thomas R; Arguez, Anthony; Huang, Boyin; Lawrimore, Jay H; McMahon, James R; Menne, Matthew J; Peterson, Thomas C; Vose, Russell S; Zhang, Huai-Min

2015-06-26

Much study has been devoted to the possible causes of an apparent decrease in the upward trend of global surface temperatures since 1998, a phenomenon that has been dubbed the global warming "hiatus." Here, we present an updated global surface temperature analysis that reveals that global trends are higher than those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially in recent decades, and that the central estimate for the rate of warming during the first 15 years of the 21st century is at least as great as the last half of the 20th century. These results do not support the notion of a "slowdown" in the increase of global surface temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Gyrokinetic particle simulation of beta-induced Alfven-acoustic eigenmode

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, H. S., E-mail: zhang.huasen@gmail.com; Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100088; Liu, Y. Q.

2016-04-15

The beta-induced Alfven-acoustic eigenmode (BAAE) in toroidal plasmas is verified and studied by global gyrokinetic particle simulations. When ion temperature is much lower than electron temperature, the existence of the weakly damped BAAE is verified in the simulations using initial perturbation, antenna excitation, and energetic particle excitation, respectively. When the ion temperature is comparable to the electron temperature, the unstable BAAE can be excited by realistic energetic particle density gradient, even though the stable BAAE (in the absence of energetic particles) is heavily damped by the thermal ions. In the simulations with reversed magnetic shear, BAAE frequency sweeping is observedmore » and poloidal mode structure has a triangle shape with a poloidal direction similar to that observed in tokamak experiments. The triangle shape changes the poloidal direction, and no frequency sweeping is found in the simulations with normal magnetic shear.« less

Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.;

Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; von Schuckmann, Karina; Beerling, David J.; Cao, Junji; Marcott, Shaun; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Prather, Michael J.; Rohling, Eelco J.; Shakun, Jeremy; Smith, Pete; Lacis, Andrew; Russell, Gary; Ruedy, Reto

2017-07-01

Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880-1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6-9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require negative emissions, i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2 extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89-535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.; Mursula, K.; Tsai, V.C.; Perkins, D.M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically- significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction. ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Are secular correlations between sunspots, geomagnetic activity, and global temperature significant?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Mursula, Kalevi; Tsai, Victor C.; Perkins, David M.

2011-11-01

Recent studies have led to speculation that solar-terrestrial interaction, measured by sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, has played an important role in global temperature change over the past century or so. We treat this possibility as an hypothesis for testing. We examine the statistical significance of cross-correlations between sunspot number, geomagnetic activity, and global surface temperature for the years 1868-2008, solar cycles 11-23. The data contain substantial autocorrelation and nonstationarity, properties that are incompatible with standard measures of cross-correlational significance, but which can be largely removed by averaging over solar cycles and first-difference detrending. Treated data show an expected statistically-significant correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, Pearson p < 10-4, but correlations between global temperature and sunspot number (geomagnetic activity) are not significant, p = 0.9954, (p = 0.8171). In other words, straightforward analysis does not support widely-cited suggestions that these data record a prominent role for solar-terrestrial interaction in global climate change. With respect to the sunspot-number, geomagnetic-activity, and global-temperature data, three alternative hypotheses remain difficult to reject: (1) the role of solar-terrestrial interaction in recent climate change is contained wholly in long-term trends and not in any shorter-term secular variation, or, (2) an anthropogenic signal is hiding correlation between solar-terrestrial variables and global temperature, or, (3) the null hypothesis, recent climate change has not been influenced by solar-terrestrial interaction.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robock, Alan

2015-03-30

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, conducting climate model experiments with standard stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios, has found that insolation reduction could keep the global average temperature constant, but global average precipitation would reduce, particularly in summer monsoon regions around the world. Temperature changes would also not be uniform; the tropics would cool, but high latitudes would warm, with continuing, but reduced sea ice and ice sheet melting. Temperature extremes would still increase, but not as much as without geoengineering. If geoengineering were halted all at once, there would be rapid temperature and precipitation increases at 5–10 times the rates frommore » gradual global warming. The prospect of geoengineering working may reduce the current drive toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and there are concerns about commercial or military control. Because geoengineering cannot safely address climate change, global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt are crucial to address anthropogenic global warming.« less

Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

2016-01-01

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

The Role of Microbial Community Composition in Controlling Soil Respiration Responses to Temperature

PubMed Central

Khachane, Amit; Dungait, Jennifer A. J.; Fraser, Fiona; Hopkins, David W.; Wookey, Philip A.; Singh, Brajesh K.; Freitag, Thomas E.; Hartley, Iain P.; Prosser, James I.

2016-01-01

Rising global temperatures may increase the rates of soil organic matter decomposition by heterotrophic microorganisms, potentially accelerating climate change further by releasing additional carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. However, the possibility that microbial community responses to prolonged warming may modify the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration creates large uncertainty in the strength of this positive feedback. Both compensatory responses (decreasing temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in the long-term) and enhancing responses (increasing temperature sensitivity) have been reported, but the mechanisms underlying these responses are poorly understood. In this study, microbial biomass, community structure and the activities of dehydrogenase and β-glucosidase enzymes were determined for 18 soils that had previously demonstrated either no response or varying magnitude of enhancing or compensatory responses of temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic microbial respiration to prolonged cooling. The soil cooling approach, in contrast to warming experiments, discriminates between microbial community responses and the consequences of substrate depletion, by minimising changes in substrate availability. The initial microbial community composition, determined by molecular analysis of soils showing contrasting respiration responses to cooling, provided evidence that the magnitude of enhancing responses was partly related to microbial community composition. There was also evidence that higher relative abundance of saprophytic Basidiomycota may explain the compensatory response observed in one soil, but neither microbial biomass nor enzymatic capacity were significantly affected by cooling. Our findings emphasise the key importance of soil microbial community responses for feedbacks to global change, but also highlight important areas where our understanding remains limited. PMID:27798702

The Role of Microbial Community Composition in Controlling Soil Respiration Responses to Temperature.

PubMed

Auffret, Marc D; Karhu, Kristiina; Khachane, Amit; Dungait, Jennifer A J; Fraser, Fiona; Hopkins, David W; Wookey, Philip A; Singh, Brajesh K; Freitag, Thomas E; Hartley, Iain P; Prosser, James I

2016-01-01

Rising global temperatures may increase the rates of soil organic matter decomposition by heterotrophic microorganisms, potentially accelerating climate change further by releasing additional carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. However, the possibility that microbial community responses to prolonged warming may modify the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration creates large uncertainty in the strength of this positive feedback. Both compensatory responses (decreasing temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in the long-term) and enhancing responses (increasing temperature sensitivity) have been reported, but the mechanisms underlying these responses are poorly understood. In this study, microbial biomass, community structure and the activities of dehydrogenase and β-glucosidase enzymes were determined for 18 soils that had previously demonstrated either no response or varying magnitude of enhancing or compensatory responses of temperature sensitivity of heterotrophic microbial respiration to prolonged cooling. The soil cooling approach, in contrast to warming experiments, discriminates between microbial community responses and the consequences of substrate depletion, by minimising changes in substrate availability. The initial microbial community composition, determined by molecular analysis of soils showing contrasting respiration responses to cooling, provided evidence that the magnitude of enhancing responses was partly related to microbial community composition. There was also evidence that higher relative abundance of saprophytic Basidiomycota may explain the compensatory response observed in one soil, but neither microbial biomass nor enzymatic capacity were significantly affected by cooling. Our findings emphasise the key importance of soil microbial community responses for feedbacks to global change, but also highlight important areas where our understanding remains limited.

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merlo, G.; Brunner, S.; Huang, Z.; Coda, S.; Görler, T.; Villard, L.; Bañón Navarro, A.; Dominski, J.; Fontana, M.; Jenko, F.; Porte, L.; Told, D.

2018-03-01

Axisymmetric (n = 0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f 0 which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper (Z Huang et al, this issue). Given that f 0 scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f 0 is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency {f}{GAM}. In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE to simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature and properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. Simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.

Thermoelectric power factor of La0.9M0.1FeO3 (M = Ca and Ba) system: Structural, band gap and electrical transport evaluations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karthikeyan, N.; Kumar, R. Ramesh; Jaiganesh, G.; Sivakumar, K.

2018-01-01

The search for thermoelectric materials has been incredibly increased due to the increase in global energy demand. Hence the present work focus on preparation and characterization of thermal transport phenomena of pure and Ba/Ca substituted perovskite LaFeO3 orthoferrite system. The conventional solid state reaction technique is utilized for the preparation of LaFeO3 and La0.9M0.1FeO3 (M = Ca and Ba) compounds. Crystal structure analyses of the prepared samples are analyses using Rietveld refinement process which confirms the orthoferrite crystal structure of all the prepared compounds with induced distortion in position of atoms by the incorporation of substituent atoms. The electronic structure calculations are performed by VASP. As the LaFeO3 compound is a strongly energy correlated system, the Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations are performed by DFT + U (Hubbard function) method. The computed band gap values are compared with the energy gap values calculated from UV-Vis spectral analysis. Electrical conductivity measurement and Arrhenius behavior for the temperature range of room temperature to 650 K are analyzed and the drift increase in conductivity with respect to temperature is due to the thermally activated mobility of charge carriers. Temperature dependent thermopower analysis is also examined using homemade seebeck coefficient measurement system. The calculation of thermoelectric power factor reveals that the Ba substituted LaFeO3 compound show highest power factor value of 3.73 μW/K2 cm at higher temperature and the superior power factor values observed in the Ba substituted compound determine the material's capability in power generating devices based on thermoelectric effect.

A Revised Thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM Version 3.4)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; Johnson, D. L.; James, B. F.

1996-01-01

This report describes the newly-revised model thermosphere for the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM, Version 3.4). It also provides descriptions of other changes made to the program since publication of the programmer's guide for Mars-GRAM Version 3.34. The original Mars-GRAM model thermosphere was based on the global-mean model of Stewart. The revised thermosphere is based largely on parameterizations derived from output data from the three-dimensional Mars Thermospheric Global Circulation Model (MTGCM). The new thermospheric model includes revised dependence on the 10.7 cm solar flux for the global means of exospheric temperature, temperature of the base of the thermosphere, and scale height for the thermospheric temperature variations, as well as revised dependence on orbital position for global mean height of the base of the thermosphere. Other features of the new thermospheric model are: (1) realistic variations of temperature and density with latitude and time of day, (2) more realistic wind magnitudes, based on improved estimates of horizontal pressure gradients, and (3) allowance for user-input adjustments to the model values for mean exospheric temperature and for height and temperature at the base of the thermosphere. Other new features of Mars-GRAM 3.4 include: (1) allowance for user-input values of climatic adjustment factors for temperature profiles from the surface to 75 km, and (2) a revised method for computing the sub-solar longitude position in the 'ORBIT' subroutine.

Effects of environmental temperature on the gut microbial communities of tadpoles.

PubMed

Kohl, Kevin D; Yahn, Jeremiah

2016-05-01

Numerous studies have investigated the effects of diet, phylogeny and immune status on the gut microbial communities of animals. Most of these studies are conducted on endotherms, especially mammals, which maintain constant body temperature in the face of environmental temperature variability. However, the majority of animals and vertebrates are ectotherms, which often experience fluctuations in body temperature as a result of their environment. While there have been several studies investigating the gut microbial diversity of ectotherms, we lack an understanding of how environmental temperature affects these communities. Here, we used high-throughput sequencing to inventory the gut microbial communities of tadpoles exposed to cool (18°C) or warm (28°C) temperature treatments. We found that temperature significantly impacted the community structure and membership of the tadpole gut. Specifically, tadpoles in the warm treatment exhibited higher abundances of the phylum Planctomycetes and the genus Mycobacterium. These results may be due to the direct effects of temperature, or mediated through changes in host physiology. Given that environmental temperatures are expected to increase due to global climate change, understanding the effects of temperature on the diversity and function of gut microbial communities is critical. © 2016 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

2013-01-01

We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

Changes in Land Cover and Terrestrial Biogeochemistry in the US: Key Findings from the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hibbard, K. A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Huntzinger, D. N.; West, T. O.

2017-12-01

The continual increase in annual average temperatures (1.0°C for the period 1901-2016 for the contiguous US), growing number of high temperature records, increasing intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events in most parts of the US, and rising global mean sea level are among the key findings from the forthcoming Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) produced by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). A chapter new to the climate science assessments directly addresses the feedbacks between climate change, land use and land cover change, and the carbon cycle. While the terrestrial biosphere is presently a net carbon sink, which has steadily increased since 1980, the future sign and magnitude of biosphere uptake cannot be determined because of uncertainties in the future trajectory of land cover and land use. Citing recent research, the chapter highlights that the combined effects of land use and land cover changes due to human activities account for 40% ± 16% of the human-caused global radiative forcing from 1850 to present. Moverover, plant community structure has already been altered by climate change and changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Changes in temperature also have direct effects on the land surface as well as feedbacks to the atmosphere. For example, the number of consecutive frost-free days and the length of the growing season have increased across all regions in the contiguous US; however, overall plant productivity has been limited by biotic factors and seasonal limitations in water and nutrient availability. Within cities, the urban heat island (UHI) effect results in daytime temperatures 0.5°C-4.0°C higher and nighttime temperatures 1.0°C-2.5°C higher in urban areas than surrounding rural areas. We discuss terrestrial and biogeochemical forcings and feedbacks that can serve as critical evaluation and paramaterization datasets for Earth system modeling approaches with implications for management of agriculture, forestry, and urban environments.

Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

PubMed

Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

2018-04-01

Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to absorb the impacts of temperature increase on tropical ectotherms during climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

c-T phase diagram and Landau free energies of (AgAu)55 nanoalloy via neural-network molecular dynamic simulations.

PubMed

Chiriki, Siva; Jindal, Shweta; Bulusu, Satya S

2017-10-21

For understanding the structure, dynamics, and thermal stability of (AgAu) 55 nanoalloys, knowledge of the composition-temperature (c-T) phase diagram is essential due to the explicit dependence of properties on composition and temperature. Experimentally, generating the phase diagrams is very challenging, and therefore theoretical insight is necessary. We use an artificial neural network potential for (AgAu) 55 nanoalloys. Predicted global minimum structures for pure gold and gold rich compositions are lower in energy compared to previous reports by density functional theory. The present work based on c-T phase diagram, surface area, surface charge, probability of isomers, and Landau free energies supports the enhancement of catalytic property of Ag-Au nanoalloys by incorporation of Ag up to 24% by composition in Au nanoparticles as found experimentally. The phase diagram shows that there is a coexistence temperature range of 70 K for Ag 28 Au 27 compared to all other compositions. We propose the power spectrum coefficients derived from spherical harmonics as an order parameter to calculate Landau free energies.

Effects of elevated carbon dioxide, elevated temperature, and rice growth stage on the community structure of rice root-associated bacteria.

PubMed

Okubo, Takashi; Tokida, Takeshi; Ikeda, Seishi; Bao, Zhihua; Tago, Kanako; Hayatsu, Masahito; Nakamura, Hirofumi; Sakai, Hidemitsu; Usui, Yasuhiro; Hayashi, Kentaro; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Minamisawa, Kiwamu

2014-01-01

The effects of free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) and elevated soil and water temperature (warming) on the rice root-associated bacterial community were evaluated by clone library analysis of the 16S ribosomal RNA gene. Roots were sampled at the panicle initiation and ripening stages 41 and 92 days after transplanting (DAT), respectively. The relative abundances of the methanotrophs Methylosinus and Methylocystis were increased by warming and decreased by FACE at 92 DAT, which indicated that microbial methane (CH4) oxidation in rice roots may have been influenced by global warming. The relative abundance of Burkholderia kururiensis was increased by warming at 41 DAT and by FACE or warming at 92 DAT. The abundances of methanotrophs increased during rice growth, which was likely induced by an enhancement in the emission of CH4 from the paddy fields, suggesting that CH4 is one of the predominant factors affecting the structure of the microbial community in rice roots. Marked variations in the community structure were also observed during rice growth in other genera: Bradyrhizobium, Clostridium, and an unknown genus close to Epsilonproteobacteria were abundant at 92 DAT, whereas Achromobacter was abundant at 41 DAT. These results demonstrated that the community structures of rice root-associated bacteria were markedly affected by FACE, temperature, and the rice growth stage.

Electron temperature structures associated with magnetic tearing modes in the Madison Symmetric Torus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Hillary Dianne

Tearing mode induced magnetic islands have a significant impact on the thermal characteristics of magnetically confined plasmas such as those in the reversed-field-pinch. Using a state-of-the-art Thomson scattering (TS) diagnostic, electron temperature fluctuations correlated with magnetic tearing modes have been observed on the Madison Symmetric Torus reversed-field-pinch. The TS diagnostic consists of two independently triggerable Nd:YAG lasers that can each pulse up to 15 times each plasma discharge and 21 General Atomics polchromators equipped with avalanche photodiode modules. Detailed calibrations focusing on accuracy, ease of use and repeatability and in-situ measurements have been performed on the system. Electron temperature (Te) profiles are acquired at 25 kHz with 2 cm or less resolution along the minor radius, sufficient to measure the effect of an island on the profile as the island rotates by the measurement point. Bayesian data analysis techniques are developed and used to detect fluctuations over an ensemble of shots. Four cases are studied; standard plasmas in quiescent periods, through sawteeth, through core reconnection events and in plasmas where the tearing mode activity is decreased. With a spectrum of unstable tearing modes, remnant islands that tend to flatten the temperature profile are present in the core between sawtooth-like reconnection events. This flattening is characteristic of rapid parallel heat conduction along helical magnetic field lines. The spatial structure of the temperature fluctuations show that the location of the rational surface of the m/n = 1/6 tearing mode is significantly further in than equilibrium suggestions predict. The fluctuations also provide a measurement of the remnant island width which is significantly smaller than the predicted full island width. These correlated fluctuations disappear during both global and core reconnection events. In striking contrast to temperature flattening, a temperature gradient within an m/m = 1/5 island is observed just after a global reconnection event. This suggests local heating and relatively good confinement within the island. Local power balance calculations suggest reduced thermal transport within this island. During improved confinement plasmas with reduced stochasticity, brought about by a reduction in tearing instability temperature fluctuations correlated with magnetic modes are small with characteristic fluctuation amplitudes of T˜e/Te ˜ 2%.

Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition.

PubMed

Bereiter, Bernhard; Shackleton, Sarah; Baggenstos, Daniel; Kawamura, Kenji; Severinghaus, Jeff

2018-01-03

Little is known about the ocean temperature's long-term response to climate perturbations owing to limited observations and a lack of robust reconstructions. Although most of the anthropogenic heat added to the climate system has been taken up by the ocean up until now, its role in a century and beyond is uncertain. Here, using noble gases trapped in ice cores, we show that the mean global ocean temperature increased by 2.57 ± 0.24 degrees Celsius over the last glacial transition (20,000 to 10,000 years ago). Our reconstruction provides unprecedented precision and temporal resolution for the integrated global ocean, in contrast to the depth-, region-, organism- and season-specific estimates provided by other methods. We find that the mean global ocean temperature is closely correlated with Antarctic temperature and has no lead or lag with atmospheric CO 2 , thereby confirming the important role of Southern Hemisphere climate in global climate trends. We also reveal an enigmatic 700-year warming during the early Younger Dryas period (about 12,000 years ago) that surpasses estimates of modern ocean heat uptake.

Geobiological constraints on Earth system sensitivity to CO₂ during the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

PubMed

Royer, D L; Pagani, M; Beerling, D J

2012-07-01

Earth system climate sensitivity (ESS) is the long-term (>10³ year) response of global surface temperature to doubled CO₂ that integrates fast and slow climate feedbacks. ESS has energy policy implications because global temperatures are not expected to decline appreciably for at least 10³ year, even if anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions drop to zero. We report provisional ESS estimates of 3 °C or higher for some of the Cretaceous and Cenozoic based on paleo-reconstructions of CO₂ and temperature. These estimates are generally higher than climate sensitivities simulated from global climate models for the same ancient periods (approximately 3 °C). Climate models probably do not capture the full suite of positive climate feedbacks that amplify global temperatures during some globally warm periods, as well as other characteristic features of warm climates such as low meridional temperature gradients. These absent feedbacks may be related to clouds, trace greenhouse gases (GHGs), seasonal snow cover, and/or vegetation, especially in polar regions. Better characterization and quantification of these feedbacks is a priority given the current accumulation of atmospheric GHGs. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Temperature Inversions and Nighttime Convection in the Martian Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinson, D. P.; Spiga, A.; Lewis, S.; Tellmann, S.; Paetzold, M.; Asmar, S. W.; Häusler, B.

2013-12-01

We are using radio occultation measurements from Mars Express, Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and Mars Global Surveyor to characterize the diurnal cycle in the lowest scale height above the surface. We focus on northern spring and summer, using observations from 4 Martian years at local times of 4-5 and 15-17 h. We supplement the observations with results obtained from large-eddy simulations and through data assimilation by the UK spectral version of the LMD Mars Global Circulation Model. We previously investigated the depth of the daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) and its variations with surface elevation and surface properties. We are now examining unusual aspects of the temperature structure observed at night. Most important, predawn profiles in the Tharsis region contain an unexpected layer of neutral static stability at pressures of 200-300 Pa with a depth of 4-5 km. The mixed layer is bounded above by a midlevel temperature inversion and below by another strong inversion adjacent to the surface. The sharp temperature minimum at the base of the midlevel inversion suggests the presence of a thin water ice cloud layer, with the further implication that radiative cooling at cloud level can induce convective activity at lower altitudes. Conversely, nighttime profiles in Amazonis show no sign of a midlevel inversion or a detached mixed layer. These regional variations in the nighttime temperature structure appear to arise in part from large-scale variations in topography, which have several notable effects. First, the CBL is much deeper in the Tharsis region than in Amazonis, owing to a roughly 6-km difference in surface elevation. Second, large-eddy simulations show that daytime convection is not only deeper above Tharsis but also considerably more intense than it is in Amazonis. Finally, the daytime surface temperatures are comparable in the two regions, so that Tharsis acts as an elevated heat source throughout the CBL. These topographic effects are expected to enhance the vertical mixing of water vapor above elevated terrain, which might lead to the formation and regional confinement of nighttime clouds.

Detrimental effect of temperature increase on the fitness of an amphibian ( Lissotriton helveticus)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galloy, Valérie; Denoël, Mathieu

2010-03-01

Increases of global temperatures have resulted in measurable shifts in the distribution, phenology and survival of some plant and animal species. However, the mechanisms showing links between global warming and biodiversity declines remain unclear. The aim of this study was to examine whether a key parameter of fitness, i.e. offspring number, could be affected by a temperature increase. To this end, we compared egg-laying traits at naturally occurring temperatures (14 °C, 18 °C and 22 °C) in palmate newts, Lissotriton helveticus. Our study suggests that water temperature increase has a negative effect on the fecundity of female newts. Females lay half as many eggs at high temperatures as they do at low temperatures, which results in a lower number of hatchlings. This study shows that global warming would affect amphibian populations. It complements other studies in pointing out that changes in phenology may not be driven only by warmer earlier temperatures but also by counter-selection during late-breeding, particularly in long-term breeders such as newts. More experimental studies should be carried out to understand the complex consequences of global warming and the proximate mechanisms of amphibian decline.

Monte Carlo study of the honeycomb structure of anthraquinone molecules on Cu(111)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwangmoo; Einstein, T. L.

2011-06-01

Using Monte Carlo calculations of the two-dimensional (2D) triangular lattice gas model, we demonstrate a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of honeycomb structure of anthraquinone (AQ) molecules on a Cu(111) plane. In our model long-range attractions play an important role, in addition to the long-range repulsions and short-range attractions proposed by Pawin, Wong, Kwon, and Bartels [ScienceSCIEAS0036-807510.1126/science.1129309 313, 961 (2006)]. We provide a global account of the possible combinations of long-range attractive coupling constants which lead to a honeycomb superstructure. We also provide the critical temperature of disruption of the honeycomb structure and compare the critical local coverage rate of AQ’s where the honeycomb structure starts to form with the experimental observations.

Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

2016-04-01

The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature increase by 2100, or about 5.3%. Brazilian historical emissions would contribute to 0.04°C to global temperature increase by 2100 or 4.4% to total temperature increase. If the European Union countries were considered independently, Germany and Great Britain would be responsible respectively to 3.9% and 3.4% of global temperature increase in 2100. We present the results on countries' historical responsibilities and then outline in detail the methodology employed to obtain the historical emissions dataset and final temperature contributions including the different approaches to derive a revised version of the Policy-maker Model, its underlying assumptions, advantages, and limitations for estimating countries' historical contribution to temperature increase.

Analyzing nearly four decades of historical radiosonde observations of tropical tropopause layer and cold-point temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilford, D.; Randel, W. J.

2017-12-01

An understanding of historical trends and variability in the thermal structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is important for assessing climate and investigating TTL processes. In particular, the cold-point tropopause (CPT) plays an important role in stratospheric dehydration, the potential intensities of tropical cyclones, and other forms of stratospheric-tropospheric coupling. Uncertainties and biases of in-situ observations, however, make long-term estimation of TTL temperatures challenging, especially in the early decades of the satellite era. The goal of this study is to construct and analyze a long-term record of radiosondes temperatures with minimal biases. Temperature observations from 1979-present are drawn from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive version 2 (IGRA2). Vertically integrated radiosonde temperatures are compared with brightness temperatures from the Microwave Sounding Units (MSU) Lower Stratosphere channel to identify the radiosonde stations with the smallest temporal discontinuities. Insights from this comparison highlight the importance of independent measurements when evaluating TTL temperatures. The 38-year dataset constructed from IGRA2 stations with the smallest biases spans the tropics and has high vertical resolution, permitting reasonable estimates of the CPT temperature. Radiosonde temperatures show good agreement with GPS radio occultation measurements over the past decade. A multivariate regression model incorporating the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation is fit to the deseasonalized data to evaluate the spatial and temporal structures in its variability. Long-term trends in CPT temperatures are considered in the context of historical estimates from climate models. Correlations with TTL water vapor concentrations from the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) data set suggest a strong relationship between the historically observed CPT temperatures and dehydration.

The effects of orbital and climatic variations on Martian surface heat flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mellon, Michael T.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

1993-01-01

Large changes in the orbital elements of Mars on timescales of 10(exp 4) to 10(exp 6) years will cause widely varying climate, specifically surface temperatures, as a result of varying insolation. These surface temperature oscillations will produce subsurface thermal gradients which contribute to the total surface heat flux. We investigate the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith on orbital timescales and show that this climatological surface heat flux is spatially variable and contributes significantly to the total surface heat flux at many locations. We model the thermal behavior of the Martian regolith by calculating the mean annual surface temperatures for each epoch (spaced 1000 years apart to resolve orbital variations) for the past 200,000 years at a chosen location on the surface. These temperatures are used as a boundary condition for the deeper regolith and subsurface temperature oscillation are then computed. The surface climatological heat flux due to past climate changes can then be found from the temperature gradient between the surface and about 150 m depth (a fraction of the thermal skin depth on these timescales). This method provides a fairly accurate determination of the climatological heat flow component at a point; however, this method is computationally time consuming and cannot be applied to all points on the globe. To map the spatial variations in the surface heat flow we recognize that the subsurface temperature structure will be largely dominated by the most recent surface temperature oscillations. In fact, the climate component of the surface heat flow will be approximately proportional to the magnitude of the most recent surface temperature change. By calculating surface temperatures at all points globally for the present epoch and an appropriate past epoch, and combining these results with a series of more precise calculations described above, we estimate the global distribution of climatological surface heat flow.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

2012-01-01

Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

A stochastic global identification framework for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotis; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2018-01-01

In this work, a novel data-based stochastic "global" identification framework is introduced for aerospace structures operating under varying flight states and uncertainty. In this context, the term "global" refers to the identification of a model that is capable of representing the structure under any admissible flight state based on data recorded from a sample of these states. The proposed framework is based on stochastic time-series models for representing the structural dynamics and aeroelastic response under multiple flight states, with each state characterized by several variables, such as the airspeed, angle of attack, altitude and temperature, forming a flight state vector. The method's cornerstone lies in the new class of Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) models which allow the explicit analytical inclusion of the flight state vector into the model parameters and, hence, system dynamics. This is achieved via the use of functional data pooling techniques for optimally treating - as a single entity - the data records corresponding to the various flight states. In this proof-of-concept study the flight state vector is defined by two variables, namely the airspeed and angle of attack of the vehicle. The experimental evaluation and assessment is based on a prototype bio-inspired self-sensing composite wing that is subjected to a series of wind tunnel experiments under multiple flight states. Distributed micro-sensors in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the composite layup of the wing in order to provide the sensing capabilities. Experimental data collected from piezoelectric sensors are employed for the identification of a stochastic global VFP model via appropriate parameter estimation and model structure selection methods. The estimated VFP model parameters constitute two-dimensional functions of the flight state vector defined by the airspeed and angle of attack. The identified model is able to successfully represent the wing's aeroelastic response under the admissible flight states via a minimum number of estimated parameters compared to standard identification approaches. The obtained results demonstrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed global identification framework, thus constituting a first step towards the next generation of "fly-by-feel" aerospace vehicles with state awareness capabilities.

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, K.; Zhou, C.

2016-12-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may introduce substantial bias in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5°x 5° grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This because T2 over land only sample air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s, These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

Regional climate change study requires new temperature datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Kaicun; Zhou, Chunlüe

2017-04-01

Analyses of global mean air temperature (Ta), i. e., NCDC GHCN, GISS, and CRUTEM4, are the fundamental datasets for climate change study and provide key evidence for global warming. All of the global temperature analyses over land are primarily based on meteorological observations of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) and their averages (T2) because in most weather stations, the measurements of Tmax and Tmin may be the only choice for a homogenous century-long analysis of mean temperature. Our studies show that these datasets are suitable for long-term global warming studies. However, they may have substantial biases in quantifying local and regional warming rates, i.e., with a root mean square error of more than 25% at 5 degree grids. From 1973 to 1997, the current datasets tend to significantly underestimate the warming rate over the central U.S. and overestimate the warming rate over the northern high latitudes. Similar results revealed during the period 1998-2013, the warming hiatus period, indicate the use of T2 enlarges the spatial contrast of temperature trends. This is because T2 over land only samples air temperature twice daily and cannot accurately reflect land-atmosphere and incoming radiation variations in the temperature diurnal cycle. For better regional climate change detection and attribution, we suggest creating new global mean air temperature datasets based on the recently available high spatiotemporal resolution meteorological observations, i.e., daily four observations weather station since 1960s. These datasets will not only help investigate dynamical processes on temperature variances but also help better evaluate the reanalyzed and modeled simulations of temperature and make some substantial improvements for other related climate variables in models, especially over regional and seasonal aspects.

METCAN-PC - METAL MATRIX COMPOSITE ANALYZER

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murthy, P. L.

1994-01-01

High temperature metal matrix composites offer great potential for use in advanced aerospace structural applications. The realization of this potential however, requires concurrent developments in (1) a technology base for fabricating high temperature metal matrix composite structural components, (2) experimental techniques for measuring their thermal and mechanical characteristics, and (3) computational methods to predict their behavior. METCAN (METal matrix Composite ANalyzer) is a computer program developed to predict this behavior. METCAN can be used to computationally simulate the non-linear behavior of high temperature metal matrix composites (HT-MMC), thus allowing the potential payoff for the specific application to be assessed. It provides a comprehensive analysis of composite thermal and mechanical performance. METCAN treats material nonlinearity at the constituent (fiber, matrix, and interphase) level, where the behavior of each constituent is modeled accounting for time-temperature-stress dependence. The composite properties are synthesized from the constituent instantaneous properties by making use of composite micromechanics and macromechanics. Factors which affect the behavior of the composite properties include the fabrication process variables, the fiber and matrix properties, the bonding between the fiber and matrix and/or the properties of the interphase between the fiber and matrix. The METCAN simulation is performed as point-wise analysis and produces composite properties which are readily incorporated into a finite element code to perform a global structural analysis. After the global structural analysis is performed, METCAN decomposes the composite properties back into the localized response at the various levels of the simulation. At this point the constituent properties are updated and the next iteration in the analysis is initiated. This cyclic procedure is referred to as the integrated approach to metal matrix composite analysis. METCAN-PC is written in FORTRAN 77 for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS. An 80286 machine with an 80287 math co-processor is required for execution. The executable requires at least 640K of RAM and DOS 3.1 or higher. The package includes sample executables which were compiled under Microsoft FORTRAN v. 5.1. The standard distribution medium for this program is one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette. The contents of the diskette are compressed using the PKWARE archiving tools. The utility to unarchive the files, PKUNZIP.EXE, is included. METCAN-PC was developed in 1992.

Interactions Between Mineral Surfaces, Substrates, Enzymes, and Microbes Result in Hysteretic Temperature Sensitivities and Microbial Carbon Use Efficiencies and Weaker Predicted Carbon-Climate Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.

2014-12-01

We hypothesize that the large observed variability in decomposition temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency arises from interactions between temperature, microbial biogeochemistry, and mineral surface sorptive reactions. To test this hypothesis, we developed a numerical model that integrates the Dynamic Energy Budget concept for microbial physiology, microbial trait-based community structure and competition, process-specific thermodynamically ­­based temperature sensitivity, a non-linear mineral sorption isotherm, and enzyme dynamics. We show, because mineral surfaces interact with substrates, enzymes, and microbes, both temperature sensitivity and microbial carbon use efficiency are hysteretic and highly variable. Further, by mimicking the traditional approach to interpreting soil incubation observations, we demonstrate that the conventional labile and recalcitrant substrate characterization for temperature sensitivity is flawed. In a 4 K temperature perturbation experiment, our fully dynamic model predicted more variable but weaker carbon-climate feedbacks than did the static temperature sensitivity and carbon use efficiency model when forced with yearly, daily, and hourly variable temperatures. These results imply that current earth system models likely over-estimate the response of soil carbon stocks to global warming.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

The role of plastic β-hairpin and weak hydrophobic core in the stability and unfolding of a full sequence design protein

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Hongxing; Duan, Yong

2004-12-01

In this study, the thermal stability of a designed α/β protein FSD (full sequence design) was studied by explicit solvent simulations at three moderate temperatures, 273 K, 300 K, and 330 K. The average properties of the ten trajectories at each temperature were analyzed. The thermal unfolding, as judged by backbone root-mean-square deviation and percentage of native contacts, was displayed with increased sampling outside of the native basin as the temperature was raised. The positional fluctuation of the hairpin residues was significantly higher than that of the helix residues at all three temperatures. The hairpin segment displayed certain plasticity even at 273 K. Apart from the terminal residues, the highest fluctuation was shown in the turn residues 7-9. Secondary structure analysis manifested the structural heterogeneity of the hairpin segment. It was also revealed by the simulation that the hydrophobic core was vulnerable to thermal denaturation. Consistent with the experiment, the I7Y mutation in the double mutant FSD-EY (FSD with mutations Q1E and I7Y) dramatically increased the protein stability in the simulation, suggesting that the plasticity of the hairpin can be partially compensated by a stronger hydrophobic core. As for the unfolding pathway, the breathing of the hydrophobic core and the separation of the two secondary structure elements (α helix and β hairpin) was the initiation step of the unfolding. The loss of global contacts from the separation further destabilized the hairpin structure and also led to the unwinding of the helix.

The role of plastic beta-hairpin and weak hydrophobic core in the stability and unfolding of a full sequence design protein.

PubMed

Lei, Hongxing; Duan, Yong

2004-12-15

In this study, the thermal stability of a designed alpha/beta protein FSD (full sequence design) was studied by explicit solvent simulations at three moderate temperatures, 273 K, 300 K, and 330 K. The average properties of the ten trajectories at each temperature were analyzed. The thermal unfolding, as judged by backbone root-mean-square deviation and percentage of native contacts, was displayed with increased sampling outside of the native basin as the temperature was raised. The positional fluctuation of the hairpin residues was significantly higher than that of the helix residues at all three temperatures. The hairpin segment displayed certain plasticity even at 273 K. Apart from the terminal residues, the highest fluctuation was shown in the turn residues 7-9. Secondary structure analysis manifested the structural heterogeneity of the hairpin segment. It was also revealed by the simulation that the hydrophobic core was vulnerable to thermal denaturation. Consistent with the experiment, the I7Y mutation in the double mutant FSD-EY (FSD with mutations Q1E and I7Y) dramatically increased the protein stability in the simulation, suggesting that the plasticity of the hairpin can be partially compensated by a stronger hydrophobic core. As for the unfolding pathway, the breathing of the hydrophobic core and the separation of the two secondary structure elements (alpha helix and beta hairpin) was the initiation step of the unfolding. The loss of global contacts from the separation further destabilized the hairpin structure and also led to the unwinding of the helix. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-01

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene.

PubMed

Rehfeld, Kira; Münch, Thomas; Ho, Sze Ling; Laepple, Thomas

2018-02-15

Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate. Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability. However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland, a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.

Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Important Parameters of Nitrogen Nitrification and Denitrification under Model and Scenario Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Chen, Z.; Shi, L.; Zhu, Y.; Yang, J.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen reactive transport modeling is subject to uncertainty in model parameters, structures, and scenarios. While global sensitivity analysis is a vital tool for identifying the parameters important to nitrogen reactive transport, conventional global sensitivity analysis only considers parametric uncertainty. This may result in inaccurate selection of important parameters, because parameter importance may vary under different models and modeling scenarios. By using a recently developed variance-based global sensitivity analysis method, this paper identifies important parameters with simultaneous consideration of parametric uncertainty, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. In a numerical example of nitrogen reactive transport modeling, a combination of three scenarios of soil temperature and two scenarios of soil moisture leads to a total of six scenarios. Four alternative models are used to evaluate reduction functions used for calculating actual rates of nitrification and denitrification. The model uncertainty is tangled with scenario uncertainty, as the reduction functions depend on soil temperature and moisture content. The results of sensitivity analysis show that parameter importance varies substantially between different models and modeling scenarios, which may lead to inaccurate selection of important parameters if model and scenario uncertainties are not considered. This problem is avoided by using the new method of sensitivity analysis in the context of model averaging and scenario averaging. The new method of sensitivity analysis can be applied to other problems of contaminant transport modeling when model uncertainty and/or scenario uncertainty are present.

Structure and dynamics of Ebola virus matrix protein VP40 by a coarse-grained Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Ras; Farmer, Barry

Ebola virus matrix protein VP40 (consisting of 326 residues) plays a critical role in viral assembly and its functions such as regulation of viral transcription, packaging, and budding of mature virions into the plasma membrane of infected cells. How does the protein VP40 go through structural evolution during the viral life cycle remains an open question? Using a coarse-grained Monte Carlo simulation we investigate the structural evolution of VP40 as a function of temperature with the input of a knowledge-based residue-residue interaction. A number local and global physical quantities (e.g. mobility profile, contact map, radius of gyration, structure factor) are analyzed with our large-scale simulations. Our preliminary data show that the structure of the protein evolves through different state with well-defined morphologies which can be identified and quantified via a detailed analysis of structure factor.

The Role of Low-severity Fire and Thermal Alteration of Soil Organic Matter in Carbon Preservation and GHG Flux From Global Peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, N. E.; Wang, H.; Hodgkins, S. B.; Richardson, C. J.

2017-12-01

Many global peatlands are dominated by fire-adapted plant communities and are subject to frequent wildfires with return intervals ranging between 3 to 100 years. Wildfires in peatlands are typically low-severity events that occur in winter and spring when vegetation is desiccated and soil moisture content is high. As a result, most wildfires consume aboveground fuels in a matter of minutes without igniting the nearly saturated peat. In such fires, surface soil layers are subjected to flash heating with a rapid loss of soil moisture but little loss of soil organic matter (SOM). Such fires have the potential to alter the chemical structure of SOM, even in the absence of combustion, through Maillard's Reaction and similar chemical processes, and through structural changes that protect SOM from decomposition. This study examines the effects of low-intensity surface fires on the recalcitrance of SOM from fire-adapted communities located in subtropical, temperate and sub-boreal peatlands. In addition, soil from a non-fire-adapted Peruvian palm peatland was examined for response to thermal alteration. The timing and temperatures of low-intensity fires were measured in the field during prescribed burns and replicated in simulated fires. The effects of fire on the chemical structure of SOM were examined with FTIR, SEM and XPS. Burned and unburned peat replicates were incubated at three temperatures (5oC, 15oC, 25oC) in controlled chambers for more than six months. Burned replicates initially showed higher CO2, CH4 and NO2 emissions. Yet, within four weeks emissions from the burned replicates dropped below those of unburned replicates and remained significantly lower (10-50%) for the duration of the experiment. In addition, thermal alteration significantly reduced the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of thermally altered peat. After accounting for small initial losses of organic matter (<10 %) during the fire simulations, thermal alteration of SOM resulted in a net long-term reduction in carbon losses to microbial respiration. Such thermal alteration of SOM might be an underestimated factor influencing carbon accretion in frequently burned peatlands and could be globally relevant if climate change increases fire frequency in boreal peatlands.

Earth observing satellite: Understanding the Earth as a system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald

1990-01-01

There is now a plan for global studies which include two very large efforts. One is the International Geosphere/Biosphere Program (IGBP) sponsored by the International Council of Scientific Unions. The other initiative is Mission to Planet Earth, an unbrella program for doing three kinds of space missions. The major one is the Earth Observation Satellite (EOS). EOS is large polar orbiting satellites with heavy payloads. Two will be placed in orbit by NASA, one by the Japanese and one or two by ESA. The overall mission measurement objectives of EOS are summarized: (1) the global distribution of energy input to and energy output from the Earth; (2) the structure, state variables, composition, and dynamics of the atmosphere from the ground to the mesopause; (3) the physical and biological structure, state, composition, and dynamics of the land surface, including terrestrial and inland water ecosystems; (4) the rates, important sources and sinks, and key components and processes of the Earth's biogeochemical cycles; (5) the circulation, surface temperature, wind stress, sea state, and the biological activity of the oceans; (6) the extent, type, state, elevation, roughness, and dynamics of glaciers, ice sheets, snow and sea ice, and the liquid equivalent of snow in the global cryosphere; (7) the global rates, amounts, and distribution of precipitation; and (8) the dynamic motions of the Earth (geophysics) as a whole, including both rotational dynamics and the kinematic motions of the tectonic plates.

Global e-VLBI observations of the gamma-ray narrow line Seyfert 1 PMN J0948+0022

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giroletti, M.; Paragi, Z.; Bignall, H.; Doi, A.; Foschini, L.; Gabányi, K. É.; Reynolds, C.; Blanchard, J.; Campbell, R. M.; Colomer, F.; Hong, X.; Kadler, M.; Kino, M.; van Langevelde, H. J.; Nagai, H.; Phillips, C.; Sekido, M.; Szomoru, A.; Tzioumis, A. K.

2011-04-01

Context. There is growing evidence of relativistic jets in radio-loud narrow-line Seyfert 1 (RL-NLS1) galaxies. Aims: We constrain the observational properties of the radio emission in the first RL-NLS1 galaxy ever detected in gamma-rays, PMN J0948+0022, i.e., its flux density and structure in both total intensity and polarization, its compactness, and variability. Methods: We performed three real-time e-VLBI observations of PMN J0948+0022 at 22 GHz, using a global array including telescopes in Europe, East Asia, and Australia. These are the first e-VLBI science observations ever carried out with a global array, reaching a maximum baseline length of 12 458 km. The observations were part of a large multiwavelength campaign in 2009. Results: The source is detected at all three epochs. The structure is dominated by a bright component, more compact than 55 μas, with a fainter component at a position angle θ ~ 35°. Relativistic beaming is required by the observed brightness temperature of 3.4 × 1011 K. Polarization is detected at a level of about 1%. Conclusions: The parameters derived by the VLBI observations, in addition to the broad-band properties, confirm that PMN J0948+0022 is similar to flat spectrum radio quasars. Global e-VLBI is a reliable and promising technique for future studies.

Geometry in transition in four dimensions: A model of emergent geometry in the early universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ydri, Badis; Khaled, Ramda; Ahlam, Rouag

2016-10-01

We study a six matrix model with global S O (3 )×S O (3 ) symmetry containing at most quartic powers of the matrices. This theory exhibits a phase transition from a geometrical phase at low temperature to a Yang-Mills matrix phase with no background geometrical structure at high temperature. This is an exotic phase transition in the same universality class as the three matrix model but with important differences. The geometrical phase is determined dynamically, as the system cools, and is given by a fuzzy sphere background SN2×SN2, with an Abelian gauge field which is very weakly coupled to two normal scalar fields.

Reusable Cryogenic Tank VHM Using Fiber Optic Distributed Sensing Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bodan-Sanders, Patricia; Bouvier, Carl

1998-01-01

The reusable oxygen and hydrogen tanks are key systems for both the X-33 (sub-scale, sub-orbital technology demonstrator) and the commercial Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). The backbone of the X-33 Reusable Cryogenic Tank Vehicle Health Management (VHM) system lies in the optical network of distributed strain temperature and hydrogen sensors. This network of fiber sensors will create a global strain and temperature map for monitoring the health of the tank structure, cryogenic insulation, and Thermal Protection System. Lockheed Martin (Sanders and LMMSS) and NASA Langley have developed this sensor technology for the X-33 and have addressed several technical issues such as fiber bonding and laser performance in this harsh environment.

Spatially resolved measurements of two-dimensional turbulent structures in DIII-D plasmas

DOE PAGES

Zemedkun, Samuel E.; Che, S.; Chen, Y.; ...

2015-12-21

Here, two-dimensional observations of spatially-coherent electron temperature fluctuations at drift wave scales (k ~1 cm -1) have been made using the electron cyclotron emission imaging (ECEI) diagnostic on the DIII-D tokamak. These measurements enable the extraction of spectral properties, including poloidal dispersion relations. Temperature fluctuation levels are found to be ˜ T e/< T e > = 1.2%, and the phase velocity of the fluctuations is found to be constant across frequencies, consistent with modes having real frequencies low compared to the rotation-induced Doppler shifts. Comparisons with radially global linear gyrokinetic simulations suggest that the observed modes may be trappedmore » electron modes (TEM).« less

Development of the mechanical cryocooler system for the Sea Land Surface Temperature Radiometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camilletti, Adam; Burgess, Christopher; Donchev, Anton; Watson, Stuart; Weatherstone Akbar, Shane; Gamo-Albero, Victoria; Romero-Largacha, Victor; Caballero-Olmo, Gema

2014-11-01

The Sea Land Surface Temperature Radiometer is a dual view Earth observing instrument developed as part of the European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security programme. It is scheduled for launch on two satellites, Sentinel 3A and 3B in 2014. The instrument detectors are cooled to below 85 K by two split Stirling Cryocoolers running in hot redundancy. These coolers form part of a cryocooler system that includes a support structure and drive electronics. Aspects of the system design, including control and reduction of exported vibration are discussed; and results, including thermal performance and exported vibration from the Engineering Model Cryooler System test campaign are presented.

Urea-temperature phase diagrams capture the thermodynamics of denatured state expansion that accompany protein unfolding.

PubMed

Tischer, Alexander; Auton, Matthew

2013-09-01

We have analyzed the thermodynamic properties of the von Willebrand factor (VWF) A3 domain using urea-induced unfolding at variable temperature and thermal unfolding at variable urea concentrations to generate a phase diagram that quantitatively describes the equilibrium between native and denatured states. From this analysis, we were able to determine consistent thermodynamic parameters with various spectroscopic and calorimetric methods that define the urea-temperature parameter plane from cold denaturation to heat denaturation. Urea and thermal denaturation are experimentally reversible and independent of the thermal scan rate indicating that all transitions are at equilibrium and the van't Hoff and calorimetric enthalpies obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions are equivalent demonstrating two-state character. Global analysis of the urea-temperature phase diagram results in a significantly higher enthalpy of unfolding than obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions and significant cross correlations describing the urea dependence of ΔH0 and ΔCP0 that define a complex temperature dependence of the m-value. Circular dichroism (CD) spectroscopy illustrates a large increase in secondary structure content of the urea-denatured state as temperature increases and a loss of secondary structure in the thermally denatured state upon addition of urea. These structural changes in the denatured ensemble make up ∼40% of the total ellipticity change indicating a highly compact thermally denatured state. The difference between the thermodynamic parameters obtained from phase diagram analysis and those obtained from analysis of individual thermal transitions illustrates that phase diagrams capture both contributions to unfolding and denatured state expansion and by comparison are able to decipher these contributions. © 2013 The Protein Society.

Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.

2017-10-01

Record-breaking temperatures can detrimentally impact ecosystems, infrastructure, and human health. Previous studies show that climate change has influenced some observed extremes, which are expected to become more frequent under enhanced future warming. Understanding the magnitude, as a well as frequency, of such future extremes is critical for limiting detrimental impacts. We focus on temperature changes in Australian regions, including over a major coral reef-building area, and assess the potential magnitude of future extreme temperatures under Paris Agreement global warming targets (1.5°C and 2°C). Under these limits to global mean warming, we determine a set of projected high-magnitude unprecedented Australian temperature extremes. These include extremes unexpected based on observational temperatures, including current record-breaking events. For example, while the difference in global-average warming during the hottest Australian summer and the 2°C Paris target is 1.1°C, extremes of 2.4°C above the observed summer record are simulated. This example represents a more than doubling of the magnitude of extremes, compared with global mean change, and such temperatures are unexpected based on the observed record alone. Projected extremes do not necessarily scale linearly with mean global warming, and this effect demonstrates the significant potential benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C, compared to 2°C or warmer.

Quantum mechanical study and spectroscopic (FT-IR, FT-Raman, UV-Visible) study, potential energy surface scan, Fukui function analysis and HOMO-LUMO analysis of 3-tert-butyl-4-methoxyphenol by DFT methods.

PubMed

Saravanan, S; Balachandran, V

2014-09-15

This study represents an integral approach towards understanding the electronic and structural aspects of 3-tert-butyl-4-methoxyphenol (TBMP). Fourier-transform Infrared (FT-IR) and Fourier-transform Raman (FT-Raman) spectra of TBMP was recorded in the region 4000-400 cm(-1) and 3500-100 cm(-1), respectively. The molecular structures, vibrational wavenumbers, infrared intensities and Raman activities were calculated using DFT (B3LYP and LSDA) methods using 6-311++G (d,p) basis set. The most stable conformer of TBMP was identified from the computational results. The assignments of vibrational spectra have been carried out with the help of normal co-ordinate analysis (NCA) following the scaled quantum mechanical force field (SQMFF) methodology. The first order hyperpolarizability (β0) and related properties (β, α0 and Δα) of TBMP have been discussed. The stability and charge delocalization of the molecule was studied by Natural Bond Orbital (NBO) analysis. UV-Visible spectrum and effects of solvents have been discussed and the electronic properties such as HOMO and LUMO energies were determined by time-dependent TD-DFT approach with B3LYP/6-311++G (d,p) level of theory. The molecule orbital contributions are studied by density of energy states (DOSs). The reactivity sites are identified by mapping the electron density into electrostatic potential surface (MEP). Mulliken analysis of atomic charges is also calculated. The thermodynamic properties at different temperatures were calculated, revealing the correlations between standard heat capacities, standard entropy and standard enthalpy changes with temperatures. Global hardness, global softness, global electrophilicity and ionization potential of the title compound are determined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mapping the Earth's thermochemical and anisotropic structure using global surface wave data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, A.; Boschi, L.; Connolly, J. A. D.

2011-01-01

We have inverted global fundamental mode and higher-order Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data jointly, to find global maps of temperature, composition, and radial seismic anisotropy of the Earth's mantle as well as their uncertainties via a stochastic sampling-based approach. We apply a self-consistent thermodynamic method to systematically compute phase equilibria and physical properties (P and S wave velocity, density) that depend only on composition (in the Na2-CaO-FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 model system), pressure, and temperature. Our 3-D maps are defined horizontally by 27 different tectonic regions and vertically by a number of layers. We find thermochemical differences between oceans and continents to extend down to ˜250 km depth, with continents and cratons appearing chemically depleted (high magnesium number (Mg #) and Mg/Si ratio) and colder (>100°C) relative to oceans, while young oceanic lithosphere is hotter than its intermediate age and old counterparts. We find what appears to be strong radial S wave anisotropy in the upper mantle down to ˜200 km, while there seems to be little evidence for shear anisotropy at greater depths. At and beneath the transition zone, 3-D heterogeneity is likely uncorrelated with surface tectonics; as a result, our tectonics-based parameterization is tenuous. Despite this weakness, constraints on the gross average thermochemical and anisotropic structure to ˜1300 km depth can be inferred, which appear to indicate that the compositions of the upper (low Mg# and high Mg/Si ratio) and lower mantle (high Mg# and low Mg/Si ratio) might possibly be distinct.

Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.; Reynolds, M. P.; Alderman, P. D.; Prasad, P. V. V.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Anothai, J.; Basso, B.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; de Sanctis, G.; Doltra, J.; Fereres, E.; Garcia-Vila, M.; Gayler, S.; Hoogenboom, G.; Hunt, L. A.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Jabloun, M.; Jones, C. D.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Koehler, A.-K.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Eyshi Rezaei, E.; Ruane, A. C.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Thorburn, P. J.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wallach, D.; Wolf, J.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y.

2015-02-01

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Rötter, R. P.; Lobell, D. B.; Cammarano, D.; Kimball, B. A.; Ottman, M. J.; Wall, G. W.; White, J. W.;

A case study of GWE satellite data impact on GLA assimilation analyses of two ocean cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallimore, R. G.; Johnson, D. R.

1986-01-01

The effects of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) data obtained on January 18-20, 1979 on Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres assimilation analyses of simultaneous cyclones in the western Pacific and Atlantic oceans are examined. The ability of satellite data within assimilation models to determine the baroclinic structures of developing extratropical cyclones is evaluated. The impact of the satellite data on the amplitude and phase of the temperature structure within the storm domain, potential energy, and baroclinic growth rate is studied. The GWE data are compared with Data Systems Test results. It is noted that it is necessary to characterize satellite effects on the baroclinic structure of cyclone waves which degrade numerical weather predictions of cyclogenesis.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

Keeping Hawai’i’s forest birds one step ahead of avian diseases in a warming world: a focus on Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge. A case study from the National Conservation and Training Center Structured Decision Making Workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Burgett, Jeff; McDonald-Fadden, Eve; Bean, Ellen; Atkinson, Carter T.; Ball, Donna; Cole, Colleen; Crampton, Lisa H.; Kraus, Jim; LaPointe, Dennis A.; Mehrhoff, Loyal; Samuel, Michael D.; Brewer, Donna; Converse, Sarah J.; Morey, Steve

2011-01-01

This report is a product of a one-week workshop on using Structured Decision Making to identify and prioritize conservation actions to address the threat of climate change on Hawaii‟s native forest bird community. Specifically, t his report addresses the issue of global warming ‟s likely role in increasing disease prevalence in upper elevation forests of Hawaii, negatively impacting native bird populations susceptible to the disease but currently disease - free because of the cooler temperatures at high elevations. 

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM): Release No. 2 - Overview and applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, B.; Johnson, D.; Tyree, L.

1993-01-01

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM), a science and engineering model for empirically parameterizing the temperature, pressure, density, and wind structure of the Martian atmosphere, is described with particular attention to the model's newest version, Mars-GRAM, Release No. 2 and to the improvements incorporated into the Release No. 2 model as compared with the Release No. 1 version. These improvements include (1) an addition of a new capability to simulate local-scale Martian dust storms and the growth and decay of these storms; (2) an addition of the Zurek and Haberle (1988) wave perturbation model, for simulating tidal perturbation effects; and (3) a new modular version of Mars-GRAM, for incorporation as a subroutine into other codes.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2017-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we have developed an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. This includes developing new "Big Data" analysis methods as the data volumes involved are considerable. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

Global Warming Estimation from MSU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, Robert, Jr.

1999-01-01

In this study, we have developed time series of global temperature from 1980-97 based on the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) Ch 2 (53.74 GHz) observations taken from polar-orbiting NOAA operational satellites. In order to create these time series, systematic errors (approx. 0.1 K) in the Ch 2 data arising from inter-satellite differences are removed objectively. On the other hand, smaller systematic errors (approx. 0.03 K) in the data due to orbital drift of each satellite cannot be removed objectively. Such errors are expected to remain in the time series and leave an uncertainty in the inferred global temperature trend. With the help of a statistical method, the error in the MSU inferred global temperature trend resulting from orbital drifts and residual inter-satellite differences of all satellites is estimated to be 0.06 K decade. Incorporating this error, our analysis shows that the global temperature increased at a rate of 0.13 +/- 0.06 K decade during 1980-97.

Fighting Fire with Fire: Modeling the Datacenter-Scale Effects of Targeted Superlattice Thermal Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

we propose that hot-spot mitigation using thermoelectric coolers can be used as a power management mechanism to allow global coolers to be provi...sioned for a better worst case temperature leading to substan- tial savings in cooling power. In order to quantify the potential power savings from us- ing...energy density inside a processor to maximally tolerable levels, modern microprocessors make ex- tensive use of hardware structures such as the load

Possible impact of global warming on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza a viruses.

PubMed

Yan, Shaomin; Wu, Guang

2011-02-01

To determine if global warming has an impact on the evolution of hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses, because both global warming and influenza pandemics/epidemics threaten the world. 4 706 hemagglutinins from influenza A viruses sampled from 1956 to 2009 were converted to a time-series to show their evolutionary process and compared with the global, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere temperatures, to determine if their trends run in similar or opposite directions. Point-to-point comparisons between temperature and quantified hemagglutinins were performed for all species and for the major prevailing species. The comparisons show that the trends for both hemagglutinin evolution and temperature change run in a similar direction. Global warming has a consistent and progressive impact on the hemagglutinin evolution of influenza A viruses.

Global River Water Temperature Modelling at Hyper-Resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Wada, Y.; Van Beek, L. P.

2017-12-01

The temperature of river water plays a crucial role in many physical, chemical and biological aquatic processes. The influence of changing water temperatures is not only felt locally, but also has regional and downstream impacts. Sectors that might be affected by sudden or gradual changes in the water temperature are: energy production, industry and recreation. Although it is very important to have detailed information on this environmental variable, high-resolution simulations of water temperature on a large scale are currently lacking. Here we present a novel hyper-resolution water temperature dataset at the global scale. We developed the 1-D energy routing model WARM, to simulate river temperature for the period 1980-2014 at 10 km and 50 km resolution. The WARM model accounts for surface water abstraction, reservoirs, riverine flooding and formation of ice, therefore enabling a realistic representation of the water temperature. The water temperature simulations have been validated against 358 river monitoring stations globally for the period 1980 to 2014. The results indicate the increase in resolution significantly improves the simulation performance with a decrease in the water temperature RMSE from 3.5°C to 3.0°C and an increase in the mean correlation of the daily discharge simulations, from R=0.4 to 0.6. We find an average global increase in water temperature of 0.22°C per decade between 1960-2014, with increasing trends towards the end of the simulations period. Strong increasing trends in maxima in the Northern Hemisphere (0.62°C per decade) and minima in the Southern Hemisphere (0.45°C per decade). Finally, we show the impact of major heatwaves and drought events on the water temperature and water availability. The high resolution not only improves the model performance; it also positively impacts the relevancy of the simulation for local and regional scale studies and impact assessments. This new global water temperature dataset could help to develop decision-support system related to water quality with increasing precision and accuracy.

The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, K. D.; Copsey, D.; Blockley, E. W.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Calvert, D.; Comer, R.; Davis, P.; Graham, T.; Hewitt, H. T.; Hill, R.; Hyder, P.; Ineson, S.; Johns, T. C.; Keen, A. B.; Lee, R. W.; Megann, A.; Milton, S. F.; Rae, J. G. L.; Roberts, M. J.; Scaife, A. A.; Schiemann, R.; Storkey, D.; Thorpe, L.; Watterson, I. G.; Walters, D. N.; West, A.; Wood, R. A.; Woollings, T.; Xavier, P. K.

2018-02-01

The Global Coupled 3 (GC3) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Among other applications, GC3 is the basis of the United Kingdom's submission to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). This paper documents the model components that make up the configuration (although the scientific descriptions of these components are in companion papers) and details the coupling between them. The performance of GC3 is assessed in terms of mean biases and variability in long climate simulations using present-day forcing. The suitability of the configuration for predictability on shorter time scales (weather and seasonal forecasting) is also briefly discussed. The performance of GC3 is compared against GC2, the previous Met Office coupled model configuration, and against an older configuration (HadGEM2-AO) which was the submission to CMIP5. In many respects, the performance of GC3 is comparable with GC2, however, there is a notable improvement in the Southern Ocean warm sea surface temperature bias which has been reduced by 75%, and there are improvements in cloud amount and some aspects of tropical variability. Relative to HadGEM2-AO, many aspects of the present-day climate are improved in GC3 including tropospheric and stratospheric temperature structure, most aspects of tropical and extratropical variability and top-of-atmosphere and surface fluxes. A number of outstanding errors are identified including a residual asymmetric sea surface temperature bias (cool northern hemisphere, warm Southern Ocean), an overly strong global hydrological cycle and insufficient European blocking.

A new method for probabilistic assessment of regional climate impacts in dependence of cumulative GHG emission budgets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, Nadine; Hare, Bill

2010-05-01

Given the expected and already observed impacts of climate change there is growing agreement that global mean temperature rise should be limited to below 2 or 1.5 degrees. The translation of such a temperature target into guidelines for global emission reduction over the coming decades has become one of the most important and urgent tasks. In fact, there are four recent studies (Meinshausen et al. 2009, Allen et al. 2009, Matthews et al. 2009 and Zickfeld et al. 2009) which take a very comprehensive approach to quantifying the current uncertainties related to the question of what are the "allowed amounts" of global emissions given specific limits of global warming. Here, we present an extension of this budget approach allowing to focus on specific regional impacts. The method is based on probabilistic projections of regional temperature and precipitation changes providing the input for available impact functions. Using the example of Greenland's surface mass balance (Gregory et al., 2006) we will demonstrate how the probability of specific impacts can be described in dependence of global GHG emission budgets taking into account the uncertainty of global mean temperature projections as well as uncertainties of regional climate patterns varying from AOGCM to AOGCM. The method utilizes the AOGCM based linear relation between global mean temperature changes and regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. It allows to handle the variations of regional climate projections from AR4 AOGCM runs independent of the uncertainties of global mean temperature change that are estimated by a simple climate model (Meinshausen et al., 2009). While the linearity of this link function is already established for temperature and to a lesser degree (depending on the region) also for precipitation (Santer et al. 1990; Mitchell et al. 1999; Giorgi et al., 2008; Solomon et al., 2009), we especially focus on the quantification of the uncertainty (in particularly the inter-AOGCM variations) of the associated scaling coefficients. Our approach is based on a linear mixed effects model (e.g. Bates and Pinheiro, 2001). In comparison to other scaling approaches we do not fit separate models for the temperature and precipitation data but we apply a two-dimensional model, i.e., we explicitly account for the fact that models (scenarios or runs) showing an especially high temperature increase may also show high precipitation increases or vice versa. Coupling the two-dimensional distribution of the scaling coefficients with the uncertainty distributions of global mean temperature change given different GHG emission trajectories finally provides time series of two dimensional uncertainty distributions of regional changes in temperature and precipitation, where both components might be correlated. These samples provide the input for regional specific impact functions. In case of Greenland we use a function by Gregory et al., 2006 that allows us to calculate changes in sea level rise due to changes in Greenland's surface mass balance in dependence of regionally averaged changes in temperature and precipitation. The precipitation signal turns out to be relatively strong for Greenland with AOGCMs consistently showing increasing precipitation with increasing global mean temperature. In addition, temperature and precipitation increases turned out to be highly correlated for Greenland: Models showing an especially high temperature increase also show high precipitation increases reflected by a correlation coefficient of 0.88 for the inter-model variations of both components of the scaling coefficients. Taking these correlations into account is especially important because the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet critically depends on the interaction of the temperature and precipitation component of climate change: Increasing precipitation may at least partly balance the loss due to increasing temperatures.

[The global climate: a sick patient].

PubMed

Lidegaard, Øjvind; Lidegaard, Martin

2008-08-25

Over the last 100 years the human use of fossil fuel has increased the atmospheric CO2 content from 280 parts per million (ppm) to 380 ppm. This increase is expected to increase the global average temperature by a few degrees. The global climate is very sensitive to an increase in temperature, and major climatic disasters, including health threats to millions of people, are probable if the CO2 emission increases further. Therefore, serious global initiatives should be taken now in order to prevent global over heating. Denmark should be at the forefront of these initiatives.

Inter-Hemispheric Coupling During Northern Polar Summer Periods of 2002-2010 using TIMED/SABER Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Feofilov, A. G.; Pesnell, W. D.; Kutepov, A. A.

2012-01-01

It has been found that for more than one polar summer season between 2002-2010, the northern polar mesospheric region near and above about 80 km was warmer than normal. The strongest warming effect of this type was observed to occur during northern summer 2002. Theoretical studies have implied that these "anomalies" were preceded by unusual dynamical processes in the southern hemisphere. We have analyzed temperature distributions measured by the SABER limb scanning infrared radiometer aboard the NASA TIMED satellite between 2002-2010 at altitudes from 15 to 110 km and for latitudes between 83 S to 83 N. We describe the approach to trace the inter-hemispheric temperature correlations demonstrating the global features that were unique for the "anomalous" northern polar summers. From our analysis of SABER data from 2002-2010, the anomalous heating for the northern mesopause region during northern summer was accompanied by stratospheric heating in the equatorial region. In the winter hemisphere it is accompanied by heating in the lower stratosphere and mesopause region, and cooling in the stratopause region. Also, all the elements of the temperature anomaly structure appear to develop and fade away nearly simultaneously, thereby suggesting either a global influence or a rapid exchange.

Large scale atmospheric waves in the Venus mesosphere as seen by the VeRa Radio Science instrument on Venus Express

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellmann, Silvia; Häusler, Bernd; Hinson, David P.; Tyler, G. Leonard; Andert, Thomas P.; Bird, Michael K.; Imamura, Takeshi; Pätzold, Martin; Remus, Stefan

2015-04-01

Atmospheric waves on all spatial scales play a crucial role in the redistribution of energy, momentum, and atmospheric constituent in planetary atmosphere and are thought to be involved in the development and maintenance of the atmospheric superrotation on Venus. The Venus Express Radio-Science Experiment VeRa sounded the Venus neutral atmosphere and ionosphere in Earth occultation geometry using the spacecraft radio subsystem at two coherent frequencies. Radial profiles of neutral number density, covering the altitude range 40-90 km, are then converted to vertical profiles of temperature and pressure, assuming hydrostatic equilibrium. The extensive VeRa data set enables us to study global scale atmospheric wave phenomena like thermal tides in the mesosphere and troposphere. A pronounced local time dependency of the temperature is found in the mesosphere at different altitude levels. Wave-2 structures dominate the low latitude range in the upper mesosphere while the higher latitudes show a strong wave-1 structure at the top of the cloud layer. The investigation of these wave structures provides valuable information about the energy transport in the atmosphere.

Simulation of metal additive manufacturing microstructures using kinetic Monte Carlo

DOE PAGES

Rodgers, Theron M.; Madison, Jonathan D.; Tikare, Veena

2017-04-19

Additive manufacturing (AM) is of tremendous interest given its ability to realize complex, non-traditional geometries in engineered structural materials. But, microstructures generated from AM processes can be equally, if not more, complex than their conventionally processed counterparts. While some microstructural features observed in AM may also occur in more traditional solidification processes, the introduction of spatially and temporally mobile heat sources can result in significant microstructural heterogeneity. While grain size and shape in metal AM structures are understood to be highly dependent on both local and global temperature profiles, the exact form of this relation is not well understood. Wemore » implement an idealized molten zone and temperature-dependent grain boundary mobility in a kinetic Monte Carlo model to predict three-dimensional grain structure in additively manufactured metals. In order to demonstrate the flexibility of the model, synthetic microstructures are generated under conditions mimicking relatively diverse experimental results present in the literature. Simulated microstructures are then qualitatively and quantitatively compared to their experimental complements and are shown to be in good agreement.« less

Effect of Temperature and Nutrient Manipulations on eelgrass ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Global climate change will have a large impact on the three predominate drivers of estuarine seagrass productivity, temperature, light and nutrients. I experimentally evaluate the response of Pacific Northwest Z. marina to interactive effects of temperature and nutrient conditions. Experimental manipulations were conducted hydroponically in acrylic chambers and spanned a range of temperatures and nutrient concentrations. Preliminary single factor experiments were conducted to evaluate physiological tolerances to temperature and nitrogen concentrations. Eelgrass exhibited a linear increase in specific growth with increasing NH4 concentration (range from 10 to 1000 µM); in contrast, there was no significant relationship between specific growth rate and increasing NO3 concentration over the same concentration range. Leaf growth metrics all exhibited strong linear relationships with increasing water temperature (temperature range 4-25 ºC). In the factorial experiment, plants were exposed to 3 temperatures (10, 18 and 25 ºC) and 3 nitrate concentrations (10, 30 and 100 µM) with 3 replicate chambers per treatment combination. Most metrics (leaf elongation, growth, specific growth, wasting index) exhibited a significant temperature effect indicating the importance of temperature on metabolic rates. Tissue stable isotope ratios and C:N values exhibited a significant nutrient effect and in some cases a significant temperature effect. Whole plant non structur

Global temperature change

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto; Lo, Ken; Lea, David W.; Medina-Elizade, Martin

2006-01-01

Global surface temperature has increased ≈0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within ≈1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than ≈1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute “dangerous” climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. PMID:17001018

Development of a Sodium LIDAR for Spaceborne Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yu, Anthony W.; Krainak, Michael A.; Janches, Diego; Jones, Sarah L.; Blagojevic, Branimir; Chen, Jeffrey

2015-01-01

We are currently developing laser and electro-optic technologies to remotely measure Sodium (Na) by adapting existing lidar technology with space flight heritage. The developed instrumentation will serve as the core for the planning of a Heliophysics mission targeted to study the composition and dynamics of Earths mesosphere based on a spaceborne lidar that will measure the mesospheric Na layer. There is a pressing need in the Ionosphere Thermosphere - Mesosphere (ITM) community for high-resolution measurements that can characterize small-scale dynamics (i.e. Gravity Waves with wavelengths smaller than a few hundred km) and their effects in the Mesosphere-Lower-Termosphere (MLT) on a global basis. This is compelling because they are believed to be the dominant contributors to momentum transport and deposition in the MLT, which largely drive the global circulation and thermal structure and interactions with the tides and planetary waves in this region. We are developing a spaceborne remote sensing technique that will enable acquisition of global Na density, temperature and wind measurements in the MLT with the spatial and temporal resolution required to resolve issues associated with the structure, chemistry, dynamics, and energetics of this regionA nadir-pointing spaceborne Na Doppler resonance fluorescence LIDAR on board of the ISS will essentially make high-resolution, in time and space, Na density, temperature and vertical wind measurements, from 75-115 km (MLT region). Our instrument concept consisted of a high-energy laser transmitter at 589 nm and highly sensitive photon counting detector that allows for range-resolved atmospheric-sodium-temperature profiles. The atmospheric temperature is deduced from the linewidth of the resonant fluorescence from the atomic sodium vapor D2 line as measured by our tunable laser. We are currently developing a high power energy laser that allows for some day time sodium lidar observations with the help of a narrow bandpass filter based on etalon or atomic sodium Faraday filter with 5 to 10 pm optical bandwidth. The current baseline detector for the lidar instrument is a 16-channel Photomultiplier Tube with receiver electronics that has been space-qualified for the ICESat-2ATLAS mission. Our technique uses the 16-channels as a photon-number-resolving single detector to provide the required full-spectroscopic sodium lineshape waveform for recovering Mesospheric temperature profiles. In this paper, we will describe our instrument concept for a future Heliophysics space mission based on board of the International Space Station (ISS).

Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling.

PubMed

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2013-09-19

Despite the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, the annual-mean global temperature has not risen in the twenty-first century, challenging the prevailing view that anthropogenic forcing causes climate warming. Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity. Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations. We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model. Although the surface temperature prescription is limited to only 8.2% of the global surface, our model reproduces the annual-mean global temperature remarkably well with correlation coefficient r = 0.97 for 1970-2012 (which includes the current hiatus and a period of accelerated global warming). Moreover, our simulation captures major seasonal and regional characteristics of the hiatus, including the intensified Walker circulation, the winter cooling in northwestern North America and the prolonged drought in the southern USA. Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to a La-Niña-like decadal cooling. Although similar decadal hiatus events may occur in the future, the multi-decadal warming trend is very likely to continue with greenhouse gas increase.

Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

PubMed

Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

2018-01-01

Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Observations and Modeling of Thermal Structure in the Lower Atmosphere and the Upward Propagation of Tides into the Thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. J.; Kahre, M.

2017-01-01

Thermal tides are the atmospheric response to diurnally varying thermal forcing resulting from radiative and convective heat transfer from the surface and from aerosol and gaseous heating within the atmosphere. Tides include sun-synchronous (migrating) waves driven in response to solar heating and additional non-migrating waves resulting from longitudinal variations in the distributions of topography, dust aerosol and water ice clouds. The systematic spatial mapping of temperature over 5 Mars years by the Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) has yielded a well-defined climatology of seasonally-varying temperature structures in the lower atmosphere, from 5 to 80 km. Tide theory and Mars global circulation model (MGCM) simulations are a fruitful framework for relating temperature observations to thermal forcing by aerosol fields [1]. The analysis of density and temperature fields derived from MAVEN IUVS and NGIMS observations have revealed the presence of predominantly zonal wave 2 and 3 features at altitudes of 100-170 km that are almost certainly non-migrating tides propagating upward from the lower atmosphere [2,3]. In this presentation we will use the MCS climatology and MGCM simulations to relate the density variations seen by MAVEN with the seasonally varying tide activity in the lower atmosphere. Large amplitude perturbations in density are most sensitive to the tide components with the longest vertical wavelengths in temperature, which are well resolved in MCS observations.

Mass and Dynamical Structures of the Lensing Clusters CL0024+17 and CL2244+02

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forman, William; Mushotzky, Richard (Technical Monitor)

2004-01-01

We present a detailed gravitational mass measurement based on the XMM-Newton imaging spectroscopy analysis of the lensing cluster of galaxies CL0024+17 at $z = 0.395$. The emission appears approximately symmetric. However, on the scale of $r\\sim3.3'$, some indication of elongation is visible in the northwest-southeast direction from the hardness ratio map. Within $3'$, we measure a global gas temperature of $3.52\\pm0.17$ keV, metallicity of $0.22\\pm0.07$, and a bolometric luminosity of $2.9\\pm0. l\\times10(exp 44)$ erg/s. We derive a temperature distribution with an isothermal temperature of 3.9 keV up to a radius of $1.5'$ and a strong temperature gradient in the outskirts ($1.3' less than r less than 3.3'$). Under the assumption of hydrostatic equilibrium, we measure the gravitational mass and gas mass fraction to be $M-{200} = 2.0\\pm0.3\\times 10(exp 14)$ solar masses and $f-{gas} = 0.20\\pm0.03$ at $r-{200} = 1.05$ Mpc (all for a Hubble constant of 70 km/sec/Mpc) using the observed gas temperature profile. The complex core structure is the key to explaining the discrepancy between the gravitational mass determined from the XMM-Newton observations and HST optical lensing measurements.

Phenol-Formaldehyde Resin for Optical-Chemical Temperature Sensing.

PubMed

Claucherty, Steven; Sakaue, Hirotaka

2018-05-30

The application of phenol-formaldehyde (PF) resin as an optical temperature sensor is investigated. Recent developments in optical luminescent sensors allow for global measurements to be made over the surface of a test article, extending beyond conventional point measurements. Global temperature distributions are particularly helpful when validating computational models or when mapping temperature over complex geometries, and can be used to calculate surface heat flux values. Temperature-sensitive paint (TSP) is a novel chemical approach to obtaining these global temperature measurements, but there are still challenges to overcome to make it a reliable tool. A sensor with a wide range of temperature sensitivity is desired to provide the maximum amount of utility, especially for tests spanning large temperature gradients. Naturally luminescent materials such as PF resin provide an attractive alternative to chemical sensor coatings, and PF resin is studied for this reason. Static tests of different PF resin samples are conducted using two binder materials to strengthen the material: cloth and paper. The material shows temperature sensitivities up to -0.8%/K, demonstrating the usefulness of PF resin as a temperature sensor.

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merlo, Gabriele; Brunner, Stephan; Huang, Zhouji

Axisymmetric (n=0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f₀ which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper [Z. Huang et al., this issue]. Given that f₀ scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f₀ is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency f_GAM . In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE tomore » simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. In conclusion, simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.« less

Investigating the radial structure of axisymmetric fluctuations in the TCV tokamak with local and global gyrokinetic GENE simulations

DOE PAGES

Merlo, Gabriele; Brunner, Stephan; Huang, Zhouji; ...

2017-12-19

Axisymmetric (n=0) density fluctuations measured in the TCV tokamak are observed to possess a frequency f₀ which is either varying (radially dispersive oscillations) or a constant over a large fraction of the plasma minor radius (radially global oscillations) as reported in a companion paper [Z. Huang et al., this issue]. Given that f₀ scales with the sound speed and given the poloidal structure of density fluctuations, these oscillations were interpreted as Geodesic Acoustic Modes, even though f₀ is in fact smaller than the local linear GAM frequency f_GAM . In this work we employ the Eulerian gyrokinetic code GENE tomore » simulate TCV relevant conditions and investigate the nature properties of these oscillations, in particular their relation to the safety factor profile. Local and global simulations are carried out and a good qualitative agreement is observed between experiments and simulations. By varying also the plasma temperature and density profiles, we conclude that a variation of the edge safety factor alone is not sufficient to induce a transition from global to radially inhomogeneous oscillations, as was initially suggested by experimental results. This transition appears instead to be the combined result of variations in the different plasma profiles, collisionality and finite machine size effects. In conclusion, simulations also show that radially global GAM-like oscillations can be observed in all fluxes and fluctuation fields, suggesting that they are the result of a complex nonlinear process involving also finite toroidal mode numbers and not just linear global GAM eigenmodes.« less

Intensification of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2°C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, B. T.

2011-12-01

Given current international efforts to limit human-induced global-mean near-surface temperature increases to 2°C, relative to the pre-industrial era, there is an interest in determining what unavoidable impacts to physical, biological, and socio-economic systems might occur even if this target were met. In our research we show that substantial fractions of the globe could experience seasonal-mean temperature extremes with unprecedented regularity, even if the global-mean temperature remains below the 2°C target currently envisioned. These results have significant implications for agriculture and crop yield; disease and human health; and ecosystems and biodiversity. To obtain these results, we first develop a novel method for combining numerical-model estimates of near-term increases in grid-point temperatures with stochastically generated anomalies derived from high-resolution observations during the last half of the 20th century. This method has practical advantages because it generates results at fine spatial resolution without relying on computationally-intensive regional-model experiments; it explicitly incorporates information derived from the observations regarding interannual-to-decadal variations in seasonal-mean temperatures; and it includes the generation of thousands of realizations of the possible impacts of a global mean temperature increase on local occurrences of hot extremes. Using this method we find that even given the "committed" future global-mean temperature increase of 0.6°C (1.4°C relative to the pre-industrial era) historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes will be exceeded in at least half of all years-equivalently, the historical extreme values will become the norm-for much of Africa, the southeastern and central portions of Asia, Indonesia, and the Amazon. Should the global-mean temperature increase reach 2°C (relative to the pre-industrial era), it is more likely than not that these same regions, along with large portions of western North America, will experience historical seasonal-mean temperature extremes every single year. Further, the current historical extreme values will effectively become the norm for approximately 70-80% of the Earth's land surface.

Quantitative assessment of drivers of recent global temperature variability: an information theoretic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhaskar, Ankush; Ramesh, Durbha Sai; Vichare, Geeta; Koganti, Triven; Gurubaran, S.

2017-12-01

Identification and quantification of possible drivers of recent global temperature variability remains a challenging task. This important issue is addressed adopting a non-parametric information theory technique, the Transfer Entropy and its normalized variant. It distinctly quantifies actual information exchanged along with the directional flow of information between any two variables with no bearing on their common history or inputs, unlike correlation, mutual information etc. Measurements of greenhouse gases: CO2, CH4 and N2O; volcanic aerosols; solar activity: UV radiation, total solar irradiance ( TSI) and cosmic ray flux ( CR); El Niño Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) and Global Mean Temperature Anomaly ( GMTA) made during 1984-2005 are utilized to distinguish driving and responding signals of global temperature variability. Estimates of their relative contributions reveal that CO2 ({˜ } 24 %), CH4 ({˜ } 19 %) and volcanic aerosols ({˜ }23 %) are the primary contributors to the observed variations in GMTA. While, UV ({˜ } 9 %) and ENSO ({˜ } 12 %) act as secondary drivers of variations in the GMTA, the remaining play a marginal role in the observed recent global temperature variability. Interestingly, ENSO and GMTA mutually drive each other at varied time lags. This study assists future modelling efforts in climate science.

Long-memory and the sea level-temperature relationship: a fractional cointegration approach.

PubMed

Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Heres, David R; Martínez-Hernández, L Catalina

2014-01-01

Through thermal expansion of oceans and melting of land-based ice, global warming is very likely contributing to the sea level rise observed during the 20th century. The amount by which further increases in global average temperature could affect sea level is only known with large uncertainties due to the limited capacity of physics-based models to predict sea levels from global surface temperatures. Semi-empirical approaches have been implemented to estimate the statistical relationship between these two variables providing an alternative measure on which to base potentially disrupting impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. However, only a few of these semi-empirical applications had addressed the spurious inference that is likely to be drawn when one nonstationary process is regressed on another. Furthermore, it has been shown that spurious effects are not eliminated by stationary processes when these possess strong long memory. Our results indicate that both global temperature and sea level indeed present the characteristics of long memory processes. Nevertheless, we find that these variables are fractionally cointegrated when sea-ice extent is incorporated as an instrumental variable for temperature which in our estimations has a statistically significant positive impact on global sea level.

Global temperature monitoring from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spencer, R. W.

1994-01-01

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Microwave sounding units and global warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gary, Bruce L.; Keihm, Stephen J.

1991-01-01

A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

Temperature Responses of Soil Organic Matter Components With Varying Recalcitrance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, M. J.; Feng, X.

2007-12-01

The response of soil organic matter (SOM) to global warming remains unclear partly due to the chemical heterogeneity of SOM composition. In this study, the decomposition of SOM from two grassland soils was investigated in a one-year laboratory incubation at six different temperatures. SOM was separated into solvent- extractable compounds, suberin- and cutin-derived compounds, and lignin monomers by solvent extraction, base hydrolysis, and CuO oxidation, respectively. These SOM components had distinct chemical structures and recalcitrance, and their decomposition was fitted by a two-pool exponential decay model. The stability of SOM components was assessed using geochemical parameters and kinetic parameters derived from model fitting. Lignin monomers exhibited much lower decay rates than solvent-extractable compounds and a relatively low percentage of lignin monomers partitioned into the labile SOM pool, which confirmed the generally accepted recalcitrance of lignin compounds. Suberin- and cutin-derived compounds had a poor fitting for the exponential decay model, and their recalcitrance was shown by the geochemical degradation parameter which stabilized during the incubation. The aliphatic components of suberin degraded faster than cutin-derived compounds, suggesting that cutin-derived compounds in the soil may be at a higher stage of degradation than suberin- derived compounds. The temperature sensitivity of decomposition, expressed as Q10, was derived from the relationship between temperature and SOM decay rates. SOM components exhibited varying temperature responses and the decomposition of the recalcitrant lignin monomers had much higher Q10 values than soil respiration or the solvent-extractable compounds decomposition. Our study shows that the decomposition of recalcitrant SOM is highly sensitive to temperature, more so than bulk soil mineralization. This observation suggests a potential acceleration in the degradation of the recalcitrant SOM pool with global warming.

Temperature and aridity regulate spatial variability of soil multifunctionality in drylands across the globe.

PubMed

Durán, Jorge; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Dougill, Andrew J; Guuroh, Reginald T; Linstädter, Anja; Thomas, Andrew D; Maestre, Fernando T

2018-05-01

The relationship between the spatial variability of soil multifunctionality (i.e., the capacity of soils to conduct multiple functions; SVM) and major climatic drivers, such as temperature and aridity, has never been assessed globally in terrestrial ecosystems. We surveyed 236 dryland ecosystems from six continents to evaluate the relative importance of aridity and mean annual temperature, and of other abiotic (e.g., texture) and biotic (e.g., plant cover) variables as drivers of SVM, calculated as the averaged coefficient of variation for multiple soil variables linked to nutrient stocks and cycling. We found that increases in temperature and aridity were globally correlated to increases in SVM. Some of these climatic effects on SVM were direct, but others were indirectly driven through reductions in the number of vegetation patches and increases in soil sand content. The predictive capacity of our structural equation modelling was clearly higher for the spatial variability of N- than for C- and P-related soil variables. In the case of N cycling, the effects of temperature and aridity were both direct and indirect via changes in soil properties. For C and P, the effect of climate was mainly indirect via changes in plant attributes. These results suggest that future changes in climate may decouple the spatial availability of these elements for plants and microbes in dryland soils. Our findings significantly advance our understanding of the patterns and mechanisms driving SVM in drylands across the globe, which is critical for predicting changes in ecosystem functioning in response to climate change. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rayner, Nick

2017-04-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project: 1. providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; 2. identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; 3. estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; 4. using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

The EUSTACE project: delivering global, daily information on surface air temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghent, D.; Rayner, N. A.

2016-12-01

Day-to-day variations in surface air temperature affect society in many ways; however, daily surface air temperature measurements are not available everywhere. A global daily analysis cannot be achieved with measurements made in situ alone, so incorporation of satellite retrievals is needed. To achieve this, in the EUSTACE project (2015-June 2018, https://www.eustaceproject.eu) we are developing an understanding of the relationships between traditional (land and marine) surface air temperature measurements and retrievals of surface skin temperature from satellite measurements, i.e. Land Surface Temperature, Ice Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Temperature and Lake Surface Water Temperature. Here we discuss the science needed to produce a fully-global daily analysis (or ensemble of analyses) of surface air temperature on the centennial scale, integrating different ground-based and satellite-borne data types. Information contained in the satellite retrievals is used to create globally-complete fields in the past, using statistical models of how surface air temperature varies in a connected way from place to place. As the data volumes involved are considerable, such work needs to include development of new "Big Data" analysis methods. We will present recent progress along this road in the EUSTACE project, i.e.: • providing new, consistent, multi-component estimates of uncertainty in surface skin temperature retrievals from satellites; • identifying inhomogeneities in daily surface air temperature measurement series from weather stations and correcting for these over Europe; • estimating surface air temperature over all surfaces of Earth from surface skin temperature retrievals; • using new statistical techniques to provide information on higher spatial and temporal scales than currently available, making optimum use of information in data-rich eras. Information will also be given on how interested users can become involved.

Cerium-based, intermetallic-strengthened aluminum casting alloy: High-volume co-product development

DOE PAGES

Sims, Zachary C.; Weiss, David; McCall, S. K.; ...

2016-05-23

Here, several rare earth elements are considered by-products to rare earth mining efforts. By using one of these by-product elements in a high-volume application such as aluminum casting alloys, the supply of more valuable rare earths can be globally stabilized. Stabilizing the global rare earth market will decrease the long-term criticality of other rare earth elements. The low demand for Ce, the most abundant rare earth, contributes to the instability of rare earth extraction. In this article, we discuss a series of intermetallic-strengthened Al alloys that exhibit the potential for new high-volume use of Ce. The castability, structure, and mechanicalmore » properties of binary, ternary, and quaternary Al-Ce based alloys are discussed. We have determined Al-Ce based alloys to be highly castable across a broad range of compositions. Nanoscale intermetallics dominate the microstructure and are the theorized source of the high ductility. In addition, room-temperature physical properties appear to be competitive with existing aluminum alloys with extended high-temperature stability of the nanostructured intermetallic.« less

Critical phenomena in communication/computation networks with various topologies and suboptimal to optimal resource allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cogoni, Marco; Busonera, Giovanni; Anedda, Paolo; Zanetti, Gianluigi

2015-01-01

We generalize previous studies on critical phenomena in communication networks [1,2] by adding computational capabilities to the nodes. In our model, a set of tasks with random origin, destination and computational structure is distributed on a computational network, modeled as a graph. By varying the temperature of a Metropolis Montecarlo, we explore the global latency for an optimal to suboptimal resource assignment at a given time instant. By computing the two-point correlation function for the local overload, we study the behavior of the correlation distance (both for links and nodes) while approaching the congested phase: a transition from peaked to spread g(r) is seen above a critical (Montecarlo) temperature Tc. The average latency trend of the system is predicted by averaging over several network traffic realizations while maintaining a spatially detailed information for each node: a sharp decrease of performance is found over Tc independently of the workload. The globally optimized computational resource allocation and network routing defines a baseline for a future comparison of the transition behavior with respect to existing routing strategies [3,4] for different network topologies.

Inference of the boundary layer structure over the oceans from satellite infrared measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prabhakara, C.; Dalu, G.; Lo, R.; Nath, N. R.

1980-01-01

Remote infrared spectral measurements in the 8-13 micron m window region, at a resolution about 3 cm/1, contain useful information about the water vapor and temperature stratification of the atmosphere within the first few kilometers above the water surface. Two pieces of information are retrieved from the spectral measurements: precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere, from the depth of the line structure between 8 and 9 micron m due to water vapor lines; and sea surface temperature, from the variation of brightness temperature between 11 and 13 micron m. Together, these two pieces of information can signify either the presence of a deep moist convective layer or the prevalence of stable conditions, such as caused by temperature inversions, which inhibit moist convection. A simple infrared radiative transfer model of the 9 micron m water vapor lines was developed to validate the method. With the help of this model and the Nimbus 4 infrared interferometer spectrometer data, a gross picture of the planetary boundary layer for different seasons over the global oceans is deduced. The important regions of the trade wind inversion and the intertropical convergence zones over all the oceans are clearly identified with this method. The derived information is in reasonable agreement with some observed climatological patterns over the oceans.

Climate and population density drive changes in cod body size throughout a century on the Norwegian coast

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Stige, Leif C.; Olsen, Esben M.; Knutsen, Halvor; Chan, Kung-Sik; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2011-01-01

Understanding how populations respond to changes in climate requires long-term, high-quality datasets, which are rare for marine systems. We estimated the effects of climate warming on cod lengths and length variability using a unique 91-y time series of more than 100,000 individual juvenile cod lengths from surveys that began in 1919 along the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. Using linear mixed-effects models, we accounted for spatial population structure and the nested structure of the survey data to reveal opposite effects of spring and summer warming on juvenile cod lengths. Warm summer temperatures in the coastal Skagerrak have limited juvenile growth. In contrast, warmer springs have resulted in larger juvenile cod, with less variation in lengths within a cohort, possibly because of a temperature-driven contraction in the spring spawning period. A density-dependent reduction in length was evident only at the highest population densities in the time series, which have rarely been observed in the last decade. If temperatures rise because of global warming, nonlinearities in the opposing temperature effects suggest that negative effects of warmer summers will increasingly outweigh positive effects of warmer springs, and the coastal Skagerrak will become ill-suited for Atlantic cod. PMID:21245301

A real-time Global Warming Index.

PubMed

Haustein, K; Allen, M R; Forster, P M; Otto, F E L; Mitchell, D M; Matthews, H D; Frame, D J

2017-11-13

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of human-induced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

Characteristics of tropical cyclones and overshooting from GPS radio occultation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biondi, Riccardo; Rieckh, Therese; Steiner, Andrea; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2014-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are extreme weather events causing every year huge damages and several deaths. In some countries they are the natural catastrophes accounting for the major economic damages. The thermal structure of TCs gives important information on the cloud top height allowing for a better understanding of the troposphere-stratosphere transport, which is still poorly understood. The measurement of atmospheric parameters (such as temperature, pressure and humidity) with high vertical resolution and accuracy in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) is difficult especially during severe weather events (e.g TCs). Satellite remote sensing has improved the TC forecast and monitoring accuracy. In the last decade the Global Positioning Systems (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) technique contributed to improve our knowledge especially at high troposphere altitudes and in remote regions of the globe thanks to the high vertical resolution, avoiding temperature smoothing issues (given by microwave and infrared instruments) in the UTLS and improving the poor temporal resolution and global coverage given by lidars and radars. We selected more than twenty-thousand GPS RO profiles co-located with TC best tracks for the period 2001 to 2012 and computed temperature anomaly profiles relative to a RO background climatology in order to detect TC cloud tops. We characterized the thermal structure for different ocean basins and for different TC intensities, distinguishing between tropical and extra-tropical cases. The analysis shows that all investigated storms have a common feature: they warm the troposphere and cool the UTLS near the cloud top. This behavior is amplified in the extra-tropical areas. Results reveal that the storms' cloud tops in the southern hemisphere basins reach higher altitudes and lower temperatures than in the northern hemisphere basins. We furthermore compared the cloud top height of each profile with the mean tropopause altitude (from the RO archive) in order to detect overshooting. We present a map of TC overshooting events indicating tropical areas which contribute most to UTLS transport and the large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Bryozoans as indicators of global change: predictable shifts in morphology and carbonate mineralogy in response to warming and ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swezey, D. S.; Bean, J. R.; Ninokawa, A. T.; Sanford, E.

2014-12-01

Recent studies have documented variation in skeletal structure and carbonate mineralogy across a broad range of marine invertebrate taxa. Intraspecific changes in growth, morphology, and carbonate composition may occur in response to local and global changes in temperature, carbonate saturation state, and nutrient availability. Recurring upwelling along the west coast of the United States creates an alongshore mosaic of Ocean Acidification (OA), which may induce plastic responses and/or select for adaptive skeletal construction that can withstand pCO2 and temperature changes. Calcifying bryozoans provide a unique study system for investigating carbonate precipitation under variable conditions. Using a newly constructed flow-through CO2 control apparatus, we tested whether three laboratory-reared populations of the bryozoans Membranipora serrilamella, M. tuberculata and Celleporella cornuta showed differences in growth, calcification, and skeletal composition in response to simulated future OA conditions. Under elevated pCO2 (1200 μatm), bryozoans showed no significant differences in growth rate (new zooids added) compared to clones reared under current atmospheric values. However, C. cornuta colonies raised under high CO2 were significantly lighter, with less carbonate per zooid compared to colonies grown in present-day conditions (400 μatm). Scanning electron microscopy revealed that elevated pCO2 led to dissolution of bryozoan skeletons, which did not occur at 400 μatm. Structural changes in M. tuberculata and C. cornuta colonies may be related to the dissolution of high magnesium calcite skeletal components. Analyses of bryozoan morphological responses along with environmental proxies (δ13C, δ18O, and Mg/Ca ratios) could yield high resolution records of temperature and pH, which could be used to help reconstruct environmental variation along the California coast.

Determination of plant growth rate and growth temperature range from measurement of physiological parameters

Treesearch

R. S. Criddle; B. N. Smith; L. D. Hansen; J. N. Church

2001-01-01

Many factors influence species range and diversity, but temperature and temperature variability are always major global determinants, irrespective of local constraints. On a global scale, the ranges of many taxa have been observed to increase and their diversity decrease with increasing latitude. On a local scale, gradients in species distribution are observable with...

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets.

PubMed

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as "extremely hot". The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, "extremely hot" summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by "extremely hot" summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low.

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests

PubMed Central

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P.

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions. PMID:23878329

Implications of global warming for the climate of African rainforests.

PubMed

James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Rowell, David P

2013-01-01

African rainforests are likely to be vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, yet there has been relatively little research to suggest how the regional climate might respond to global warming. This study presents projections of temperature and precipitation indices of relevance to African rainforests, using global climate model experiments to identify local change as a function of global temperature increase. A multi-model ensemble and two perturbed physics ensembles are used, one with over 100 members. In the east of the Congo Basin, most models (92%) show a wet signal, whereas in west equatorial Africa, the majority (73%) project an increase in dry season water deficits. This drying is amplified as global temperature increases, and in over half of coupled models by greater than 3% per °C of global warming. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics in a subset of models suggests that this could be partly because of a rearrangement of zonal circulation, with enhanced convection in the Indian Ocean and anomalous subsidence over west equatorial Africa, the Atlantic Ocean and, in some seasons, the Amazon Basin. Further research to assess the plausibility of this and other mechanisms is important, given the potential implications of drying in these rainforest regions.

Aggregation of alpha-synuclein by a coarse-grained Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, Barry; Pandey, Ras

Alpha-synuclein, an intrinsic protein abundant in neurons, is believed to be a major cause of neurodegenerative diseases (e.g. Alzheimer, Parkinson's disease). Abnormal aggregation of ASN leads to Lewy bodies with specific morphologies. We investigate the self-organizing structures in a crowded environment of ASN proteins by a coarse-grained Monte Carlo simulation. ASN is a chain of 140 residues. Structure detail of residues is neglected but its specificity is captured via unique knowledge-based residue-residue interactions. Large-scale simulations are performed to analyze a number local and global physical quantities (e.g. mobility profile, contact map, radius of gyration, structure factor) as a function of temperature and protein concentration. Trend in multi-scale structural variations of the protein in a crowded environment is compared with that of a free protein chain.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming.

PubMed

Carey, Joanna C; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H; Kroeger, Kevin D; Crowther, Thomas W; Burton, Andrew J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D; Heskel, Mary A; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C; Enquist, Brian J; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R; Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B; Reynolds, Lorien L; Schmidt, Inger K; Shaver, Gaius R; Strong, Aaron L; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-11-29

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; Collins, Scott L.; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Steenberg Larsen, Klaus; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Penuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward B.; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming.

Temperature response of soil respiration largely unaltered with experimental warming

PubMed Central

Carey, Joanna C.; Tang, Jianwu; Templer, Pamela H.; Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crowther, Thomas W.; Burton, Andrew J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Emmett, Bridget; Frey, Serita D.; Heskel, Mary A.; Jiang, Lifen; Machmuller, Megan B.; Mohan, Jacqueline; Panetta, Anne Marie; Reich, Peter B.; Reinsch, Sabine; Wang, Xin; Allison, Steven D.; Bamminger, Chris; Bridgham, Scott; de Dato, Giovanbattista; Eddy, William C.; Enquist, Brian J.; Estiarte, Marc; Harte, John; Henderson, Amanda; Johnson, Bart R.; Luo, Yiqi; Marhan, Sven; Melillo, Jerry M.; Peñuelas, Josep; Pfeifer-Meister, Laurel; Poll, Christian; Rastetter, Edward; Reinmann, Andrew B.; Reynolds, Lorien L.; Schmidt, Inger K.; Shaver, Gaius R.; Strong, Aaron L.; Suseela, Vidya; Tietema, Albert

2016-01-01

The respiratory release of carbon dioxide (CO2) from soil is a major yet poorly understood flux in the global carbon cycle. Climatic warming is hypothesized to increase rates of soil respiration, potentially fueling further increases in global temperatures. However, despite considerable scientific attention in recent decades, the overall response of soil respiration to anticipated climatic warming remains unclear. We synthesize the largest global dataset to date of soil respiration, moisture, and temperature measurements, totaling >3,800 observations representing 27 temperature manipulation studies, spanning nine biomes and over 2 decades of warming. Our analysis reveals no significant differences in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration between control and warmed plots in all biomes, with the exception of deserts and boreal forests. Thus, our data provide limited evidence of acclimation of soil respiration to experimental warming in several major biome types, contrary to the results from multiple single-site studies. Moreover, across all nondesert biomes, respiration rates with and without experimental warming follow a Gaussian response, increasing with soil temperature up to a threshold of ∼25 °C, above which respiration rates decrease with further increases in temperature. This consistent decrease in temperature sensitivity at higher temperatures demonstrates that rising global temperatures may result in regionally variable responses in soil respiration, with colder climates being considerably more responsive to increased ambient temperatures compared with warmer regions. Our analysis adds a unique cross-biome perspective on the temperature response of soil respiration, information critical to improving our mechanistic understanding of how soil carbon dynamics change with climatic warming. PMID:27849609

Germination shifts of C3 and C4 species under simulated global warming scenario.

PubMed

Zhang, Hongxiang; Yu, Qiang; Huang, Yingxin; Zheng, Wei; Tian, Yu; Song, Yantao; Li, Guangdi; Zhou, Daowei

2014-01-01

Research efforts around the world have been increasingly devoted to investigating changes in C3 and C4 species' abundance or distribution with global warming, as they provide important insight into carbon fluxes and linked biogeochemical cycles. However, changes in the early life stage (e.g. germination) of C3 and C4 species in response to global warming, particularly with respect to asymmetric warming, have received less attention. We investigated germination percentage and rate of C3 and C4 species under asymmetric (+3/+6°C at day/night) and symmetric warming (+5/+5°C at day/night), simulated by alternating temperatures. A thermal time model was used to calculate germination base temperature and thermal time constant. Two additional alternating temperature regimes were used to test temperature metrics effect. The germination percentage and rate increased continuously for C4 species, but increased and then decreased with temperature for C3 species under both symmetric and asymmetric warming. Compared to asymmetric warming, symmetric warming significantly overestimated the speed of germination percentage change with temperature for C4 species. Among the temperature metrics (minimum, maximum, diurnal temperature range and average temperature), maximum temperature was most correlated with germination of C4 species. Our results indicate that global warming may favour germination of C4 species, at least for the C4 species studied in this work. The divergent effects of asymmetric and symmetric warming on plant germination also deserve more attention in future studies.

Molecular dynamics simulations of spinels: LiMn2O4 and Li4Mn5O12 at high temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledwaba, R. S.; Matshaba, M. G.; Ngoepe, P. E.

2015-04-01

Energy storage technologies are critical in addressing the global challenge of clean sustainable energy. Spinel lithium manganates have attracted attention due to their electrochemical properties and also as promising cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries. The current study focused on the effects of high temperatures on the materials, in order to understand the sustainability in cases where the battery heats up to high temperature and analysis of lithium diffusion aids in terms of intercalation host compatibility. It is also essential to understand the high temperature behaviour and lithium ion host capability of these materials in order to perform the armorphization and recrystalization of spinel nano-architectures. Molecular dynamics simulations carried out to predict high temperature behaviour of the spinel systems. The NVE ensemble was employed, in the range 300 - 3000K. The melting temperature, lithium-ion diffusion and structural behaviour were monitored in both supercell systems. LiMn2O4 indicated a diffusion rate that increased rapidly above 1500K, just before melting (˜1700K) and reached its maximum diffusion at 2.756 × 10-7 cm2s-1 before it decreased. Li4Mn5O12 indicated an exponential increase above 700K reaching 8.303 × 10-7 cm2s-1 at 2000K and allowing lithium intercalation even above its melting point of around 1300K. This indicated better structural stability of Li4Mn5O12 and capability to host lithium ions at very high temperatures (up to 3000 K) compared to LiMn2O4.

Warm tropical ocean surface and global anoxia during the mid-Cretaceous period.

PubMed

Wilson, P A; Norris, R D

2001-07-26

The middle of the Cretaceous period (about 120 to 80 Myr ago) was a time of unusually warm polar temperatures, repeated reef-drowning in the tropics and a series of oceanic anoxic events (OAEs) that promoted both the widespread deposition of organic-carbon-rich marine sediments and high biological turnover. The cause of the warm temperatures is unproven but widely attributed to high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. In contrast, there is no consensus on the climatic causes and effects of the OAEs, with both high biological productivity and ocean 'stagnation' being invoked as the cause of ocean anoxia. Here we show, using stable isotope records from multiple species of well-preserved foraminifera, that the thermal structure of surface waters in the western tropical Atlantic Ocean underwent pronounced variability about 100 Myr ago, with maximum sea surface temperatures 3-5 degrees C warmer than today. This variability culminated in a collapse of upper-ocean stratification during OAE-1d (the 'Breistroffer' event), a globally significant period of organic-carbon burial that we show to have fundamental, stratigraphically valuable, geochemical similarities to the main OAEs of the Mesozoic era. Our records are consistent with greenhouse forcing being responsible for the warm temperatures, but are inconsistent both with explanations for OAEs based on ocean stagnation, and with the traditional view (reviewed in ref. 12) that past warm periods were more stable than today's climate.

Role of rheology in reconstructing slab morphology in global mantle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bello, Léa; Coltice, Nicolas; Tackley, Paul; Müller, Dietmar

2015-04-01

Reconstructing the 3D structure of the Earth's mantle has been a challenge for geodynamicists for about 40 years. Although numerical models and computational capabilities have incredibly progressed, parameterizations used for modeling convection forced by plate motions are far from being Earth-like. Among the set of parameters, rheology is fundamental because it defines in a non-linear way the dynamics of slabs and plumes, and the organization of the lithosphere. Previous studies have employed diverse viscosity laws, most of them being temperature and depth dependent with relatively small viscosity contrasts. In this study, we evaluate the role of the temperature dependence of viscosity (variations up to 6 orders of magnitude) on reconstructing slab evolution in 3D spherical models of convection driven by plate history models. We also investigate the importance of pseudo-plasticity in such models. We show that strong temperature dependence of viscosity combined with pseudo-plasticity produce laterally and vertically continuous slabs, and flat subduction where trench retreat is fast (North, Central and South America). Moreover, pseudo-plasticity allows a consistent coupling between imposed plate motions and global convection, which is not possible with temperature-dependent viscosity only. However, even our most sophisticated model is not able to reproduce unambiguously stagnant slabs probably because of the simplicity of material properties we use here. The differences between models employing different viscosity laws are very large, larger than the differences between two models with the same rheology but using two different plate reconstructions or initial conditions.

Interactive effects of preindustrial, current and future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature on soil fungi associated with two Eucalyptus species.

PubMed

Anderson, Ian C; Drigo, Barbara; Keniry, Kerry; Ghannoum, Oula; Chambers, Susan M; Tissue, David T; Cairney, John W G

2013-02-01

Soil microbial processes have a central role in global fluxes of the key biogenic greenhouse gases and are likely to respond rapidly to climate change. Whether climate change effects on microbial processes lead to a positive or negative feedback for terrestrial ecosystem resilience is unclear. In this study, we investigated the interactive effects of [CO(2)] and temperature on soil fungi associated with faster-growing Eucalyptus saligna and slower-growing Eucalyptus sideroxylon, and fungi that colonised hyphal in-growth bags. Plants were grown in native soil under controlled soil moisture conditions, while subjecting the above-ground compartment to defined atmospheric conditions differing in CO(2) concentrations (290, 400, 650 μL L(-1)) and temperature (26 and 30 °C). Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism and sequencing methods were used to examine effects on the structure of the soil fungal communities. There was no significant effect of host plant or [CO(2)]/temperature treatment on fungal species richness (α diversity); however, there was a significant effect on soil fungal community composition (β diversity) which was strongly influenced by eucalypt species. Interestingly, β diversity of soil fungi associated with both eucalypt species was significantly influenced by the elevated [CO(2) ]/high temperature treatment, suggesting that the combination of future predicted levels of atmospheric [CO(2)] and projected increases in global temperature will significantly alter soil fungal community composition in eucalypt forest ecosystems, independent of eucalypt species composition. These changes may arise through direct effects of changes in [CO(2)] and temperature on soil fungi or through indirect effects, which is likely the case in this study given the plant-dependent nature of our observations. This study highlights the role of plant species in moderating below-ground responses to future predicted changes to [CO(2)] and temperature and the importance of considering integrated plant-soil system responses. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Mark; Cowtan, Kevin; Millar, Richard J.

2018-05-01

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).

Stochastic global identification of a bio-inspired self-sensing composite UAV wing via wind tunnel experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopsaftopoulos, Fotios; Nardari, Raphael; Li, Yu-Hung; Wang, Pengchuan; Chang, Fu-Kuo

2016-04-01

In this work, the system design, integration, and wind tunnel experimental evaluation are presented for a bioinspired self-sensing intelligent composite unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) wing. A total of 148 micro-sensors, including piezoelectric, strain, and temperature sensors, in the form of stretchable sensor networks are embedded in the layup of a composite wing in order to enable its self-sensing capabilities. Novel stochastic system identification techniques based on time series models and statistical parameter estimation are employed in order to accurately interpret the sensing data and extract real-time information on the coupled air flow-structural dynamics. Special emphasis is given to the wind tunnel experimental assessment under various flight conditions defined by multiple airspeeds and angles of attack. A novel modeling approach based on the recently introduced Vector-dependent Functionally Pooled (VFP) model structure is employed for the stochastic identification of the "global" coupled airflow-structural dynamics of the wing and their correlation with dynamic utter and stall. The obtained results demonstrate the successful system-level integration and effectiveness of the stochastic identification approach, thus opening new perspectives for the state sensing and awareness capabilities of the next generation of "fly-by-fee" UAVs.

Mathematical assessment of the role of temperature and rainfall on mosquito population dynamics.

PubMed

Abdelrazec, Ahmed; Gumel, Abba B

2017-05-01

A new stage-structured model for the population dynamics of the mosquito (a major vector for numerous vector-borne diseases), which takes the form of a deterministic system of non-autonomous nonlinear differential equations, is designed and used to study the effect of variability in temperature and rainfall on mosquito abundance in a community. Two functional forms of eggs oviposition rate, namely the Verhulst-Pearl logistic and Maynard-Smith-Slatkin functions, are used. Rigorous analysis of the autonomous version of the model shows that, for any of the oviposition functions considered, the trivial equilibrium of the model is locally- and globally-asymptotically stable if a certain vectorial threshold quantity is less than unity. Conditions for the existence and global asymptotic stability of the non-trivial equilibrium solutions of the model are also derived. The model is shown to undergo a Hopf bifurcation under certain conditions (and that increased density-dependent competition in larval mortality reduces the likelihood of such bifurcation). The analyses reveal that the Maynard-Smith-Slatkin oviposition function sustains more oscillations than the Verhulst-Pearl logistic function (hence, it is more suited, from ecological viewpoint, for modeling the egg oviposition process). The non-autonomous model is shown to have a globally-asymptotically stable trivial periodic solution, for each of the oviposition functions, when the associated reproduction threshold is less than unity. Furthermore, this model, in the absence of density-dependent mortality rate for larvae, has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable periodic solution under certain conditions. Numerical simulations of the non-autonomous model, using mosquito surveillance and weather data from the Peel region of Ontario, Canada, show a peak mosquito abundance for temperature and rainfall values in the range [Formula: see text]C and [15-35] mm, respectively. These ranges are recorded in the Peel region between July and August (hence, this study suggests that anti-mosquito control effects should be intensified during this period).

Can we set a global threshold age to define mature forests?

PubMed

Martin, Philip; Jung, Martin; Brearley, Francis Q; Ribbons, Relena R; Lines, Emily R; Jacob, Aerin L

2016-01-01

Globally, mature forests appear to be increasing in biomass density (BD). There is disagreement whether these increases are the result of increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations or a legacy effect of previous land-use. Recently, it was suggested that a threshold of 450 years should be used to define mature forests and that many forests increasing in BD may be younger than this. However, the study making these suggestions failed to account for the interactions between forest age and climate. Here we revisit the issue to identify: (1) how climate and forest age control global forest BD and (2) whether we can set a threshold age for mature forests. Using data from previously published studies we modelled the impacts of forest age and climate on BD using linear mixed effects models. We examined the potential biases in the dataset by comparing how representative it was of global mature forests in terms of its distribution, the climate space it occupied, and the ages of the forests used. BD increased with forest age, mean annual temperature and annual precipitation. Importantly, the effect of forest age increased with increasing temperature, but the effect of precipitation decreased with increasing temperatures. The dataset was biased towards northern hemisphere forests in relatively dry, cold climates. The dataset was also clearly biased towards forests <250 years of age. Our analysis suggests that there is not a single threshold age for forest maturity. Since climate interacts with forest age to determine BD, a threshold age at which they reach equilibrium can only be determined locally. We caution against using BD as the only determinant of forest maturity since this ignores forest biodiversity and tree size structure which may take longer to recover. Future research should address the utility and cost-effectiveness of different methods for determining whether forests should be classified as mature.

Rate of warming affects temperature sensitivity of anaerobic peat decomposition and greenhouse gas production.

PubMed

Sihi, Debjani; Inglett, Patrick W; Gerber, Stefan; Inglett, Kanika S

2018-01-01

Temperature sensitivity of anaerobic carbon mineralization in wetlands remains poorly represented in most climate models and is especially unconstrained for warmer subtropical and tropical systems which account for a large proportion of global methane emissions. Several studies of experimental warming have documented thermal acclimation of soil respiration involving adjustments in microbial physiology or carbon use efficiency (CUE), with an initial decline in CUE with warming followed by a partial recovery in CUE at a later stage. The variable CUE implies that the rate of warming may impact microbial acclimation and the rate of carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) production. Here, we assessed the effects of warming rate on the decomposition of subtropical peats, by applying either a large single-step (10°C within a day) or a slow ramping (0.1°C/day for 100 days) temperature increase. The extent of thermal acclimation was tested by monitoring CO 2 and CH 4 production, CUE, and microbial biomass. Total gaseous C loss, CUE, and MBC were greater in the slow (ramp) warming treatment. However, greater values of CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios lead to a greater global warming potential in the fast (step) warming treatment. The effect of gradual warming on decomposition was more pronounced in recalcitrant and nutrient-limited soils. Stable carbon isotopes of CH 4 and CO 2 further indicated the possibility of different carbon processing pathways under the contrasting warming rates. Different responses in fast vs. slow warming treatment combined with different endpoints may indicate alternate pathways with long-term consequences. Incorporations of experimental results into organic matter decomposition models suggest that parameter uncertainties in CUE and CH 4 -C:CO 2 -C ratios have a larger impact on long-term soil organic carbon and global warming potential than uncertainty in model structure, and shows that particular rates of warming are central to understand the response of wetland soils to global climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

CNA web server: rigidity theory-based thermal unfolding simulations of proteins for linking structure, (thermo-)stability, and function.

PubMed

Krüger, Dennis M; Rathi, Prakash Chandra; Pfleger, Christopher; Gohlke, Holger

2013-07-01

The Constraint Network Analysis (CNA) web server provides a user-friendly interface to the CNA approach developed in our laboratory for linking results from rigidity analyses to biologically relevant characteristics of a biomolecular structure. The CNA web server provides a refined modeling of thermal unfolding simulations that considers the temperature dependence of hydrophobic tethers and computes a set of global and local indices for quantifying biomacromolecular stability. From the global indices, phase transition points are identified where the structure switches from a rigid to a floppy state; these phase transition points can be related to a protein's (thermo-)stability. Structural weak spots (unfolding nuclei) are automatically identified, too; this knowledge can be exploited in data-driven protein engineering. The local indices are useful in linking flexibility and function and to understand the impact of ligand binding on protein flexibility. The CNA web server robustly handles small-molecule ligands in general. To overcome issues of sensitivity with respect to the input structure, the CNA web server allows performing two ensemble-based variants of thermal unfolding simulations. The web server output is provided as raw data, plots and/or Jmol representations. The CNA web server, accessible at http://cpclab.uni-duesseldorf.de/cna or http://www.cnanalysis.de, is free and open to all users with no login requirement.

CNA web server: rigidity theory-based thermal unfolding simulations of proteins for linking structure, (thermo-)stability, and function

PubMed Central

Krüger, Dennis M.; Rathi, Prakash Chandra; Pfleger, Christopher; Gohlke, Holger

2013-01-01

The Constraint Network Analysis (CNA) web server provides a user-friendly interface to the CNA approach developed in our laboratory for linking results from rigidity analyses to biologically relevant characteristics of a biomolecular structure. The CNA web server provides a refined modeling of thermal unfolding simulations that considers the temperature dependence of hydrophobic tethers and computes a set of global and local indices for quantifying biomacromolecular stability. From the global indices, phase transition points are identified where the structure switches from a rigid to a floppy state; these phase transition points can be related to a protein’s (thermo-)stability. Structural weak spots (unfolding nuclei) are automatically identified, too; this knowledge can be exploited in data-driven protein engineering. The local indices are useful in linking flexibility and function and to understand the impact of ligand binding on protein flexibility. The CNA web server robustly handles small-molecule ligands in general. To overcome issues of sensitivity with respect to the input structure, the CNA web server allows performing two ensemble-based variants of thermal unfolding simulations. The web server output is provided as raw data, plots and/or Jmol representations. The CNA web server, accessible at http://cpclab.uni-duesseldorf.de/cna or http://www.cnanalysis.de, is free and open to all users with no login requirement. PMID:23609541

Protein stability and dynamics influenced by ligands in extremophilic complexes - a molecular dynamics investigation.

PubMed

Khan, Sara; Farooq, Umar; Kurnikova, Maria

2017-08-22

In this study, we explore the structural and dynamic adaptations of the Tryptophan synthase α-subunit in a ligand bound state in psychrophilic, mesophilic and hyperthermophilic organisms at different temperatures by MD simulations. We quantify the global and local fluctuations in the 40 ns time scale by analyzing the root mean square deviation/fluctuations. The distinct behavior of the active site and loop 6 is observed with the elevation of temperature. Protein stability relies more on electrostatic interactions, and these interactions might be responsible for the stability of varying temperature evolved proteins. The paper also focuses on the effect of temperature on protein dynamics and stability governed by the distinct behavior of the ligand associated with its retention, binding and dissociation over the course of time. The integration of principle component analysis and a free energy landscape was useful in identifying the conformational space accessible to ligand bound homologues and how the presence of the ligand alters the conformational and dynamic properties of the protein.

Estimating the urban bias of surface shelter temperatures using upper-air and satellite data. Part 1: Development of models predicting surface shelter temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Epperson, David L.; Davis, Jerry M.; Bloomfield, Peter; Karl, Thomas R.; Mcnab, Alan L.; Gallo, Kevin P.

1995-01-01

Multiple regression techniques were used to predict surface shelter temperatures based on the time period 1986-89 using upper-air data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to represent the background climate and site-specific data to represent the local landscape. Global monthly mean temperature models were developed using data from over 5000 stations available in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN). Monthly maximum, mean, and minimum temperature models for the United States were also developed using data from over 1000 stations available in the U.S. Cooperative (COOP) Network and comparative monthly mean temperature models were developed using over 1150 U.S. stations in the GHCN. Three-, six-, and full-variable models were developed for comparative purposes. Inferences about the variables selected for the various models were easier for the GHCN models, which displayed month-to-month consistency in which variables were selected, than for the COOP models, which were assigned a different list of variables for nearly every month. These and other results suggest that global calibration is preferred because data from the global spectrum of physical processes that control surface temperatures are incorporated in a global model. All of the models that were developed in this study validated relatively well, especially the global models. Recalibration of the models with validation data resulted in only slightly poorer regression statistics, indicating that the calibration list of variables was valid. Predictions using data from the validation dataset in the calibrated equation were better for the GHCN models, and the globally calibrated GHCN models generally provided better U.S. predictions than the U.S.-calibrated COOP models. Overall, the GHCN and COOP models explained approximately 64%-95% of the total variance of surface shelter temperatures, depending on the month and the number of model variables. In addition, root-mean-square errors (rmse's) were over 3 C for GHCN models and over 2 C for COOP models for winter months, and near 2 C for GHCN models and near 1.5 C for COOP models for summer months.

Global Failure Modes in High Temperature Composite Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knauss, W. G.

1998-01-01

Composite materials have been considered for many years as the major advance in the construction of energy efficient aerospace structures. Notable advances have been made in understanding the special design considerations that set composites apart from the usual "isotropic" engineering materials such as the metals. As a result, a number of significant engineering designs have been accomplished. However, one shortcoming of the currently favored composites is their relatively unforgiving behavior with respect to failure (brittleness) under seemingly mild impact conditions and large efforts are underway to rectify that situation, much along the lines of introducing thermoplastic matrix materials. Because of their relatively more pronounced (thermo) viscoelastic behavior these materials respond with "toughness" in fracture situations. From the point of view of applications requiring material strength, this property is highly desirable. This feature impacts several important and distinct engineering problems which have been' considered under this grant and cover the 1) effect of impact damage on structural (buckling) stability of composite panels, the 2) effect of time dependence on the progression of buckling instabilities, and the 3) evolution of damage and fracture at generic thickness discontinuities in structures. The latter topic has serious implications for structural stability problems (buckling failure in reinforced shell structures) as well as failure progression in stringer-reinforced shell structures. This grant has dealt with these issues. Polymer "toughness" is usually associated with uncrosslinked or thermo-plastic polymers. But, by comparison with their thermoset counterparts they tend to exhibit more pronounced time dependent material behavior; also, that time dependence can occur at lower temperatures which places restriction in the high temperature use of these "newer and tougher" materials that are not quite so serious with the thermoset matrix materials. From a structural point of view the implications of this material behavior are potentially severe in that structural failure characteristics are no longer readily observed in short term qualification tests so characteristic for aerospace structures built from typical engineering metals.

Influence of global and local distortion on magnetic properties of cubic La0.6Ba0.4-xCaxCoO3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Hong; Gao, Yu; Wu, Qiang; Dong, Xiaohua; Li, Yunfei; Pang, Yanbo

2015-12-01

The magnetic and structural study of the La0.6Ba0.4-xCaxCoO3 (x=0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, and 0.4) compounds with the lowest global or local distortion are studied. The compounds with x=0, 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 is crystallized in the structure with the space group Pm-3m, and that with x=0.4 is Pnma. A ferromagnetic-like transition is observed and the Curie temperature, ranging from 235 K to 220 K, decreases slightly with the increasing Ca2+ content for x≤0.3, and the transition temperature is as low as 175 K with x=0.4. A hump, with the hump temperature slightly increase with the Ca2+ content, is observed in the thermal magnetization curves of all of the compounds at the ZFC state, and it is owing to the magnetic frustration because of the coexistence of the FM and the AFM interaction. Above the transition temperature, the magnetic susceptibility versus the temperature is fitted with the ferromagnetic Curie-Weiss law for the compounds with x≤0.3, and that with x=0.4 coincides with the ferrimagnetic Weiss-mean-field model. The absolute values of the exchange constants J1 in the compounds with x≤0.3 and those of J CO 3+CO 3+ ,J CO 3+CO4+ ,JCO4+CO4+ of La0.6Ca0.4CoO3 are deduced from the fitting. The results indicate that (i) the ferromagnetic exchange constants J1 increases with the Ca2+ content x≤0.3; (ii) the ferromagnetic interaction, JCo3+Co4+, plays a main role in the magnetic properties of La0.6Ca0.4CoO3; (iii) the antiferromagnetic interactions, JCo3+Co3+, JCo4+Co4+, are not negligible in the compound x=0.4. The unsaturated magnetization at 70 kOe and the high coercive field in the hysteretic magnetization curve supports the existence of the antiferromagnetic interaction, and the percentage of the antiferromagnetic domain is calculated.

The atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model: simulations versus observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.; Rotstayn, L. D.; Krummel, P. B.

2002-07-01

A 5-year simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer in the CSIRO global climate model (GCM) is compared with detailed boundary-layer observations at six locations, two over the ocean and four over land. Field observations, in the form of surface fluxes and vertical profiles of wind, temperature and humidity, are generally available for each hour over periods of one month or more in a single year. GCM simulations are for specific months corresponding to the field observations, for each of five years. At three of the four land sites (two in Australia, one in south-eastern France), modelled rainfall was close to the observed climatological values, but was significantly in deficit at the fourth (Kansas, USA). Observed rainfall during the field expeditions was close to climatology at all four sites. At the Kansas site, modelled screen temperatures (Tsc), diurnal temperature amplitude and sensible heat flux (H) were significantly higher than observed, with modelled evaporation (E) much lower. At the other three land sites, there is excellent correspondence between the diurnal amplitude and phase and absolute values of each variable (Tsc, H, E). Mean monthly vertical profiles for specific times of the day show strong similarities: over land and ocean in vertical shape and absolute values of variables, and in the mixed-layer and nocturnal-inversion depths (over land) and the height of the elevated inversion or height of the cloud layer (over the sea). Of special interest is the presence climatologically of early morning humidity inversions related to dewfall and of nocturnal low-level jets; such features are found in the GCM simulations. The observed day-to-day variability in vertical structure is captured well in the model for most sites, including, over a whole month, the temperature range at all levels in the boundary layer, and the mix of shallow and deep mixed layers. Weaknesses or unrealistic structure include the following, (a) unrealistic model mixed-layer temperature profiles over land in clear skies, related to use of a simple local first-order turbulence closure, (b) a tendency to overpredict cloud liquid water near the surface.

A global satellite environmental data record derived from AMSR-E and AMSR2 microwave Earth observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinyang; Kimball, John S.; Jones, Lucas A.; Kim, Youngwook; Glassy, Joseph; Watts, Jennifer D.

2017-11-01

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing is widely used to monitor global environmental changes for understanding hydrological, ecological, and climate processes. A new global land parameter data record (LPDR) was generated using similar calibrated, multifrequency brightness temperature (Tb) retrievals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2). The resulting LPDR provides a long-term (June 2002-December 2015) global record of key environmental observations at a 25 km grid cell resolution, including surface fractional open water (FW) cover, atmosphere precipitable water vapor (PWV), daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmx and Tmn), vegetation optical depth (VOD), and surface volumetric soil moisture (VSM). Global mapping of the land parameter climatology means and seasonal variability over the full-year records from AMSR-E (2003-2010) and AMSR2 (2013-2015) observation periods is consistent with characteristic global climate and vegetation patterns. Quantitative comparisons with independent observations indicated favorable LPDR performance for FW (R ≥ 0.75; RMSE ≤ 0.06), PWV (R ≥ 0.91; RMSE ≤ 4.94 mm), Tmx and Tmn (R ≥ 0.90; RMSE ≤ 3.48 °C), and VSM (0.63 ≤ R ≤ 0.84; bias-corrected RMSE ≤ 0.06 cm3 cm-3). The LPDR-derived global VOD record is also proportional to satellite-observed NDVI (GIMMS3g) seasonality (R ≥ 0.88) due to the synergy between canopy biomass structure and photosynthetic greenness. Statistical analysis shows overall LPDR consistency but with small biases between AMSR-E and AMSR2 retrievals that should be considered when evaluating long-term environmental trends. The resulting LPDR and potential updates from continuing AMSR2 operations provide for effective global monitoring of environmental parameters related to vegetation activity, terrestrial water storage, and mobility and are suitable for climate and ecosystem studies. The LPDR dataset is publicly available at http://files.ntsg.umt.edu/data/LPDR_v2/.<

Is sexual reproduction of high-mountain plants endangered by heat?

PubMed

Ladinig, Ursula; Pramsohler, Manuel; Bauer, Ines; Zimmermann, Sonja; Neuner, Gilbert; Wagner, Johanna

2015-04-01

Strong solar irradiation in combination with still air and dry soil can cause prostrate high-mountain plants to heat up considerably and ultimately suffer heat damage. Such heat damage has been repeatedly shown for vegetative structures, but not for reproductive structures, which we expected to be particularly vulnerable to heat. Heat effects on cold-adapted plants may increase with rising global temperatures and the predicted increase in heat waves. We have tested the heat tolerance of reproductive versus vegetative shoots at different reproductive stages, comparing ten common plant species from different elevation belts in the European Alps. Plant samples were exposed to temperatures in 2-K steps of 30 min each between 42 and 56 °C. Heat damage was assessed by visual rating and vital staining. Reproductive shoots were on average 2.5 K less heat tolerant (LT50, i.e. the mean temperature causing 50 % heat damage, 47.2 °C) than vegetative shoots (mean LT50 49.7 °C). Initial heat injuries (mean LT10) were observed at 43-45 °C in heat-susceptible species and at 45-47 °C in more heat-tolerant species, in at least one reproductive stage. Generally, heat tolerance was significantly higher during fruiting than during the bud stages and anthesis. Prostrate species with acaulescent buds and flowers tolerated heat better than those with caulescent buds and flowers. Petals were the most heat-susceptible plant structure and mature pollen the most heat tolerant. Based on these data, heat tolerance of reproductive structures appears to be adapted to the prevailing maximum temperatures which the plants experience during different reproductive stages in their environment. During hot spells, however, heat tolerance thresholds may be exceeded. More frequent heat waves would decrease the reproductive output and, consequently, the competitiveness of heat-susceptible species.

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE PAGES

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.; ...

2014-09-24

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J.

The impacts of historical droughts and heat-waves on ecosystems are often considered indicative of future global warming impacts, under the assumption that water stress sets in above a fixed high temperature threshold. Historical and future (RCP8.5) Earth system model (ESM) climate projections were analyzed in this study to illustrate changes in the temperatures for onset of water stress under global warming. The ESMs examined here predict sharp declines in gross primary production (GPP) at warm temperature extremes in historical climates, similar to the observed correlations between GPP and temperature during historical heat-waves and droughts. However, soil moisture increases at themore » warm end of the temperature range, and the temperature at which soil moisture declines with temperature shifts to a higher temperature. The temperature for onset of water stress thus increases under global warming and is associated with a shift in the temperature for maximum GPP to warmer temperatures. Despite the shift in this local temperature optimum, the impacts of warm extremes on GPP are approximately invariant when extremes are defined relative to the optimal temperature within each climate period. The GPP sensitivity to these relative temperature extremes therefore remains similar between future and present climates, suggesting that the heat- and drought-induced GPP reductions seen recently can be expected to be similar in the future, and may be underestimates of future impacts given model projections of increased frequency and persistence of heat-waves and droughts. The local temperature optimum can be understood as the temperature at which the combination of water stress and light limitations is minimized, and this concept gives insights into how GPP responds to climate extremes in both historical and future climate periods. Both cold (temperature and light-limited) and warm (water-limited) relative temperature extremes become more persistent in future climate projections, and the time taken to return to locally optimal climates for GPP following climate extremes increases by more than 25% over many land regions.« less

An improved empirical dynamic control system model of global mean sea level rise and surface temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qing; Luu, Quang-Hung; Tkalich, Pavel; Chen, Ge

2018-04-01

Having great impacts on human lives, global warming and associated sea level rise are believed to be strongly linked to anthropogenic causes. Statistical approach offers a simple and yet conceptually verifiable combination of remotely connected climate variables and indices, including sea level and surface temperature. We propose an improved statistical reconstruction model based on the empirical dynamic control system by taking into account the climate variability and deriving parameters from Monte Carlo cross-validation random experiments. For the historic data from 1880 to 2001, we yielded higher correlation results compared to those from other dynamic empirical models. The averaged root mean square errors are reduced in both reconstructed fields, namely, the global mean surface temperature (by 24-37%) and the global mean sea level (by 5-25%). Our model is also more robust as it notably diminished the unstable problem associated with varying initial values. Such results suggest that the model not only enhances significantly the global mean reconstructions of temperature and sea level but also may have a potential to improve future projections.

Mean global ocean temperatures during the last glacial transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bereiter, Bernhard; Shackleton, Sarah; Baggenstos, Daniel; Kawamura, Kenji; Severinghaus, Jeff

2018-01-01

Little is known about the ocean temperature’s long-term response to climate perturbations owing to limited observations and a lack of robust reconstructions. Although most of the anthropogenic heat added to the climate system has been taken up by the ocean up until now, its role in a century and beyond is uncertain. Here, using noble gases trapped in ice cores, we show that the mean global ocean temperature increased by 2.57 ± 0.24 degrees Celsius over the last glacial transition (20,000 to 10,000 years ago). Our reconstruction provides unprecedented precision and temporal resolution for the integrated global ocean, in contrast to the depth-, region-, organism- and season-specific estimates provided by other methods. We find that the mean global ocean temperature is closely correlated with Antarctic temperature and has no lead or lag with atmospheric CO2, thereby confirming the important role of Southern Hemisphere climate in global climate trends. We also reveal an enigmatic 700-year warming during the early Younger Dryas period (about 12,000 years ago) that surpasses estimates of modern ocean heat uptake.

Research Review, 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1984-01-01

The Global Modeling and Simulation Branch (GMSB) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is engaged in general circulation modeling studies related to global atmospheric and oceanographic research. The research activities discussed are organized into two disciplines: Global Weather/Observing Systems and Climate/Ocean-Air Interactions. The Global Weather activities are grouped in four areas: (1) Analysis and Forecast Studies, (2) Satellite Observing Systems, (3) Analysis and Model Development, (4) Atmospheric Dynamics and Diagnostic Studies. The GLAS Analysis/Forecast/Retrieval System was applied to both FGGE and post FGGE periods. The resulting analyses have already been used in a large number of theoretical studies of atmospheric dynamics, forecast impact studies and development of new or improved algorithms for the utilization of satellite data. Ocean studies have focused on the analysis of long-term global sea surface temperature data, for use in the study of the response of the atmosphere to sea surface temperature anomalies. Climate research has concentrated on the simulation of global cloudiness, and on the sensitivities of the climate to sea surface temperature and ground wetness anomalies.

Global lake response to the recent warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winslow, Luke A.; Leach, Taylor H.; Rose, Kevin C.

2018-05-01

Understanding temporal variability in lake warming rates over decadal scales is important for understanding observed change in aquatic systems. We analyzed a global dataset of lake surface water temperature observations (1985‑2009) to examine how lake temperatures responded to a recent global air temperature warming hiatus (1998‑2012). Prior to the hiatus (1985‑1998), surface water temperatures significantly increased at an average rate of 0.532 °C decade‑1 (±0.214). In contrast, water temperatures did not change significantly during the hiatus (average rate ‑0.087 °C decade‑1 ±0.223). Overall, 83% of lakes in our dataset (129 of 155) had faster warming rates during the pre-hiatus period than during the hiatus period. These results demonstrate that lakes have exhibited decadal-scale variability in warming rates coherent with global air temperatures and represent an independent line of evidence for the recent warming hiatus. Our analyses provide evidence that lakes are sentinels of broader climatological processes and indicate that warming rates based on datasets where a large proportion of observations were collected during the hiatus period may underestimate longer-term trends.

3-D inelastic analysis methods for hot section components (base program). [turbine blades, turbine vanes, and combustor liners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, R. B.; Bak, M. J.; Nakazawa, S.; Banerjee, P. K.

1984-01-01

A 3-D inelastic analysis methods program consists of a series of computer codes embodying a progression of mathematical models (mechanics of materials, special finite element, boundary element) for streamlined analysis of combustor liners, turbine blades, and turbine vanes. These models address the effects of high temperatures and thermal/mechanical loadings on the local (stress/strain) and global (dynamics, buckling) structural behavior of the three selected components. These models are used to solve 3-D inelastic problems using linear approximations in the sense that stresses/strains and temperatures in generic modeling regions are linear functions of the spatial coordinates, and solution increments for load, temperature and/or time are extrapolated linearly from previous information. Three linear formulation computer codes, referred to as MOMM (Mechanics of Materials Model), MHOST (MARC-Hot Section Technology), and BEST (Boundary Element Stress Technology), were developed and are described.

Remote Sensing of the Solar Wind Density, Speed, and Temperature in the Region between the Sun and Parker Solar Probe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davila, J. M.; Reginald, N. L.

2017-12-01

A coronagraph is the tool of choice to understand and observe the structure of the corona from space. The novel coronagraph concept presented her provides a new scientific capability that will allow the measurement of density, temperature, and flow velocity in the solar atmosphere. This instrument will provide the first remote sensing measurement of the global solar wind temperature, density, and flow speed in the regions between 3 and 8 Rsun. It is in this region that the manority of the solar wind acceleration takes place, and where the ion compsition of the solar wind is "frozen in". This is also the region of the corona that links the surface of the Sun to the Parker Solar Probe and to Solar Orbiter. The observations suggested here would dramatically improve our understanding of solar wind formation and evolution in this critical region.

Investigation of merging/reconnection heating during solenoid-free startup of plasmas in the MAST Spherical Tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanabe, H.; Yamada, T.; Watanabe, T.; Gi, K.; Inomoto, M.; Imazawa, R.; Gryaznevich, M.; Scannell, R.; Conway, N. J.; Michael, C.; Crowley, B.; Fitzgerald, I.; Meakins, A.; Hawkes, N.; McClements, K. G.; Harrison, J.; O'Gorman, T.; Cheng, C. Z.; Ono, Y.; The MAST Team

2017-05-01

We present results of recent studies of merging/reconnection heating during central solenoid (CS)-free plasma startup in the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST). During this process, ions are heated globally in the downstream region of an outflow jet, and electrons locally around the X-point produced by the magnetic field of two internal P3 coils and of two plasma rings formed around these coils, the final temperature being proportional to the reconnecting field energy. There is an effective confinement of the downstream thermal energy, due to a thick layer of reconnected flux. The characteristic structure is sustained for longer than an ion-electron energy relaxation time, and the energy exchange between ions and electrons contributes to the bulk electron heating in the downstream region. The peak electron temperature around the X-point increases with toroidal field, but the downstream electron and ion temperatures do not change.

Spherical harmonic analysis of a synoptic climatology generated with a global general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christidis, Z. D.; Spar, J.

1980-01-01

Spherical harmonic analysis was used to analyze the observed climatological (C) fields of temperature at 850 mb, geopotential height at 500 mb, and sea level pressure. The spherical harmonic method was also applied to the corresponding "model climatological" fields (M) generated by a general circulation model, the "GISS climate model." The climate model was initialized with observed data for the first of December 1976 at 00. GMT and allowed to generate five years of meteorological history. Monthly means of the above fields for the five years were computed and subjected to spherical harmonic analysis. It was found from the comparison of the spectral components of both sets, M and C, that the climate model generated reasonable 500 mb geopotential heights. The model temperature field at 850 mb exhibited a generally correct structure. However, the meridional temperature gradient was overestimated and overheating of the continents was observed in summer.

Thermodynamic constraint on the depth of the global tropospheric circulation.

PubMed

Thompson, David W J; Bony, Sandrine; Li, Ying

2017-08-01

The troposphere is the region of the atmosphere characterized by low static stability, vigorous diabatic mixing, and widespread condensational heating in clouds. Previous research has argued that in the tropics, the upper bound on tropospheric mixing and clouds is constrained by the rapid decrease with height of the saturation water vapor pressure and hence radiative cooling by water vapor in clear-sky regions. Here the authors contend that the same basic physics play a key role in constraining the vertical structure of tropospheric mixing, tropopause temperature, and cloud-top temperature throughout the globe. It is argued that radiative cooling by water vapor plays an important role in governing the depth and amplitude of large-scale dynamics at extratropical latitudes.

Presence of global and local α-relaxations in an alkyl phosphate glass former

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tao; Jin, Xiao; Saini, Manoj K.; Liu, Ying Dan; Ngai, K. L.; Wang, Li-Min

2017-10-01

The dynamics of a molecular glass former, tributyl phosphate (TBP), with an alkyl phosphate structure (three alkyl branches emanating from a polar core of PO4) is studied in the supercooled regime by dielectric and thermal (or enthalpic) relaxations. The dielectric fragility index md and the stretching exponent βd of the Kohlrausch-Williams-Watts correlation function are determined. Analyses of the enthalpic relaxation data by the Tool-Narayanaswamy-Moynihan-Hodge formalism yield the enthalpic fragility index mH and stretching exponent βH. The large difference between the dielectric md and the enthalpic mH, as well as between βd and βH, is a remarkable finding. The differences are interpreted by the formation of molecular self-assemblies. The interpretation is supported by the quite comparable fragility determined by viscosity and the enthalpic relaxation. The Kirkwood factor calculated at low temperatures is also consistent with the interpretation. The results suggest that the enthalpic relaxation involving the motions of all parts of TBP is global, while the dielectric relaxation detects the local rotation, which might originate from the rotation of the dipole moment of the core. The presence of two structural α-relaxations, one global and one local, with a large difference in dynamics is revealed for the first time in a molecular glass former.

Sensitivity of Global Terrestrial Gross Primary Production to Hydrologic States Simulated by the Community Land Model Using Two Runoff Parameterizations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

2014-09-01

The terrestrial water and carbon cycles interact strongly at various spatio-temporal scales. To elucidate how hydrologic processes may influence carbon cycle processes, differences in terrestrial carbon cycle simulations induced by structural differences in two runoff generation schemes were investigated using the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4). Simulations were performed with runoff generation using the default TOPMODEL-based and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model approaches under the same experimental protocol. The comparisons showed that differences in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) are mainly attributed to differences in the simulated leaf area index (LAI) rather than soil moisture availability. More specifically,more » differences in runoff simulations can influence LAI through changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and their seasonality that affect the onset of the growing season and the subsequent dynamic feedbacks between terrestrial water, energy, and carbon cycles. As a result of a relative difference of 36% in global mean total runoff between the two models and subsequent changes in soil moisture, soil temperature, and LAI, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4%. However, the relative difference in the global mean net ecosystem exchange between the two models is small (2.1%) due to competing effects on total mean ecosystem respiration and other fluxes, although large regional differences can still be found. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.« less

Surface Temperature Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

2012-01-01

Small global mean temperature changes may have significant to disastrous consequences for the Earth's climate if they persist for an extended period. Obtaining global means from local weather reports is hampered by the uneven spatial distribution of the reliably reporting weather stations. Methods had to be developed that minimize as far as possible the impact of that situation. This software is a method of combining temperature data of individual stations to obtain a global mean trend, overcoming/estimating the uncertainty introduced by the spatial and temporal gaps in the available data. Useful estimates were obtained by the introduction of a special grid, subdividing the Earth's surface into 8,000 equal-area boxes, using the existing data to create virtual stations at the center of each of these boxes, and combining temperature anomalies (after assessing the radius of high correlation) rather than temperatures.

Thermal structure and heat balance of the outer planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conrath, B. J.; Hanel, R. A.; Samuelson, R. E.

1989-01-01

Current knowledge of the thermal structure and energy balance of the outer planets is summarized. The Voyager spacecraft experiments have provided extensive new information on the atmospheric temperatures and energetics of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus. All three planets show remarkably small global-scale horizontal thermal contrast, indicating efficient redistribution of heat within the atmospheres or interiors. Horizontal temperature gradients on the scale of the zonal jets indicate that the winds decay with height in the upper troposphere. This suggests that the winds are driven at deeper levels and are subjected to frictional damping of unknown origin at higher levels. Both Jupiter and Saturn have internal power sources equal to about 70 percent of the absorbed solar power. This result is consistent with the view that significant helium differentiation has occurred on Saturn. Uranus has an internal power no greater than 13 percent of the absorbed solar power, while earth-based observations suggest Neptune has an internal power in excess of 100 percent of the absorbed solar power.

Mars observer radio science (MORS) observations in polar regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Richard A.

1992-01-01

MORS observations will focus on two major areas of study: (1) the gravity field of Mars and its interpretation in terms of internal structure and history and (2) the structure of the atmosphere, with emphasis on both temperature-pressure profiles of the background atmosphere and small scale inhomogeneities resulting from turbulence. Scattering of cm wavelength radio signals from Mars' surface at highly oblique angles will also be studied during the primary mission; nongrazing scattering experiments may be possible during an extended mission. During the MORS primary mission, measurements of the spacecraft distance and velocity with respect to Earth based tracking stations will be used to develop models of the global gravity field. The improvement in knowledge of the gravity field will be especially evident in polar regions. The spatial and temporal coverage of atmospheric radio occultation measurements are determined by the geometry of the spacecraft orbit and the direction to the Earth. Profiles of atmospheric temperature and pressure will extend from the surface to altitudes of 50 to 70 km.

Creating academic structures to promote nursing's role in global health policy.

PubMed

Gimbel, S; Kohler, P; Mitchell, P; Emami, A

2017-03-01

We highlight key components of emerging academic structures in global health nursing and explain how this investment can expand nursing's broader engagement in global health policy development. Engaging nursing in global health policy development is vital to ensure the scale-up of effective health programmes. Globally, nurses promote development of interprofessional healthcare teams who are responsible for translating sound global health policy and evidence-based programming into practice. However, the role of nurses within policy forums and on influential decision-making bodies within the global health space remains limited, which reinforces suboptimal global health policy implementation. Investment in globally engaged academic structures is an important way to expand participation of nursing in global health policy development. A review of the current knowledge and substantive findings related to academic structures promoting global health nursing was conducted, and included a directed search of institutional websites, related grey and peer-reviewed literature, and communication with top-tier schools of nursing in the United States, to identify specific developments in global health nursing academic structures. Effective academic structures promoting global health nursing include a framework of four critical components - Research, Education, Policy and Partnership. Academic structure type and core activities vary depending on institutional priorities. Increasingly, global health research, driven by individual nursing investigators, is expanding; however, in order to translate these advances into expanded involvement in global health policy development, academic structures within schools of nursing need to systematically expand educational opportunities, bolster research capacity and promote partnership with policymakers. © 2017 The Authors International Nursing Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Council of Nurses.

Remote sensing of atmosphere and oceans; Proceedings of Symposium 1 and of the Topical Meeting of the 27th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Espoo, Finland, July 18-29, 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raschke, E. (Editor); Ghazi, A. (Editor); Gower, J. F. R. (Editor); Mccormick, P. (Editor); Gruber, A. (Editor); Hasler, A. F. (Editor)

1989-01-01

Papers are presented on the contribution of space remote sensing observations to the World Climate Research Program and the Global Change Program, covering topics such as space observations for global environmental monitoring, experiments related to land surface fluxes, studies of atmospheric composition, structure, motions, and precipitation, and remote sensing for oceanography, observational studies of the atmosphere, clouds, and the earth radiation budget. Also, papers are given on results from space observations for meteorology, oceanography, and mesoscale atmospheric and ocean processes. The topics include vertical atmospheric soundings, surface water temperature determination, sea level variability, data on the prehurricane atmosphere, linear and circular mesoscale convective systems, Karman vortex clouds, and temporal patterns of phytoplankton abundance.

Thermal analysis of wildfires and effects on global ecosystem cycling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ambrosia, Vincent G.; Brass, James A.

1988-01-01

Biomass combustion plays an important role in the earth's biogeochemical cycling. The monitoring of wildfires and their associated variables at global scales is feasible and can lead to predictions of the influence of combustion on biogeochemical cycling and tropospheric chemistry. Remote sensing data collected during the 1985 California wildfire season indicate that the information content of key thermal and infrared/thermal wave band channels centered at 11.5 microns, 3.8 microns, and 2.25 microns are invaluable for discriminating and calculating fire related variables. These variables include fire intensity, rate-of-spread, soil cooling recovery behind the fire front, and plume structure. Coinciding Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data provided information regarding temperature estimations and the movement of the smoke plume from one wildfire into the Los Angeles basin.

Anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems in Antarctica.

PubMed

Aronson, Richard B; Thatje, Sven; McClintock, James B; Hughes, Kevin A

2011-03-01

Antarctica is the most isolated continent on Earth, but it has not escaped the negative impacts of human activity. The unique marine ecosystems of Antarctica and their endemic faunas are affected on local and regional scales by overharvesting, pollution, and the introduction of alien species. Global climate change is also having deleterious impacts: rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification already threaten benthic and pelagic food webs. The Antarctic Treaty System can address local- to regional-scale impacts, but it does not have purview over the global problems that impinge on Antarctica, such as emissions of greenhouse gases. Failure to address human impacts simultaneously at all scales will lead to the degradation of Antarctic marine ecosystems and the homogenization of their composition, structure, and processes with marine ecosystems elsewhere. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Non-Psychrophilic Methanogens Capable of Growth Following Long-Term Extreme Temperature Changes, with Application to Mars.

PubMed

Mickol, Rebecca L; Laird, Sarah K; Kral, Timothy A

2018-04-23

Although the martian environment is currently cold and dry, geomorphological features on the surface of the planet indicate relatively recent (<4 My) freeze/thaw episodes. Additionally, the recent detections of near-subsurface ice as well as hydrated salts within recurring slope lineae suggest potentially habitable micro-environments within the martian subsurface. On Earth, microbial communities are often active at sub-freezing temperatures within permafrost, especially within the active layer, which experiences large ranges in temperature. With warming global temperatures, the effect of thawing permafrost communities on the release of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane becomes increasingly important. Studies examining the community structure and activity of microbial permafrost communities on Earth can also be related to martian permafrost environments, should life have developed on the planet. Here, two non-psychrophilic methanogens, Methanobacterium formicicum and Methanothermobacter wolfeii , were tested for their ability to survive long-term (~4 year) exposure to freeze/thaw cycles varying in both temperature and duration, with implications both for climate change on Earth and possible life on Mars.

Nimbus-7 Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (SAMS) experiment data user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, F. W.; Rodgers, C. D.; Nutter, S. T.; Oslik, N.

1989-01-01

The Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder (SAMS) aboard Nimbus-7 observes infrared radiation from the atmospheric limb. Global upper atmosphere temperature profiles and vertical concentrations of H2O, NO, N2O, CH4 and CO2 are derived from these measurements. The status of all channels was carefully monitored. Temperature and composition were retrieved from the measurements by linearizing the direct equation about an a priori profile and using an optimum statistical estimator to find the most likely solution. The derived temperature and composition profiles are archived on two tape products whose file structure and record formats are described in detail. The gridded retrieved temperature tape (GRID-T) contains daily day and night average temperatures at 62 pressure levels in a 2.5 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude grid extending from 67.5 degrees N to 50 degrees S. The zonal mean methane and nitrous oxide composition tape (ZMT-G) contains zonal mean day and night average CH4 and N2O mixing ratios at 31 pressure levels for 2.5 degrees latitude zones extending from 67.5 degrees N to 50 degrees S.

Warmest Global Temperature on Record on This Week @NASA – January 20, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-20

NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Jan. 18, that global surface temperatures in 2016 were the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880. The finding was based on results of independent analyses by both agencies. According to analysis by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, 2016 is the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures, further demonstrating a long-term warming trend. Also, Cygnus Cargo Module Arrives at KSC, Up in 30 Seconds, and Remembering Gene Cernan.

Large sensitivity in land carbon storage due to geographical and temporal variation in the thermal response of photosynthetic capacity.

PubMed

Mercado, Lina M; Medlyn, Belinda E; Huntingford, Chris; Oliver, Rebecca J; Clark, Douglas B; Sitch, Stephen; Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Kattge, Jens; Harper, Anna B; Cox, Peter M

2018-06-01

Plant temperature responses vary geographically, reflecting thermally contrasting habitats and long-term species adaptations to their climate of origin. Plants also can acclimate to fast temporal changes in temperature regime to mitigate stress. Although plant photosynthetic responses are known to acclimate to temperature, many global models used to predict future vegetation and climate-carbon interactions do not include this process. We quantify the global and regional impacts of biogeographical variability and thermal acclimation of temperature response of photosynthetic capacity on the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle between 1860 and 2100 within a coupled climate-carbon cycle model, that emulates 22 global climate models. Results indicate that inclusion of biogeographical variation in photosynthetic temperature response is most important for present-day and future C uptake, with increasing importance of thermal acclimation under future warming. Accounting for both effects narrows the range of predictions of the simulated global land C storage in 2100 across climate projections (29% and 43% globally and in the tropics, respectively). Contrary to earlier studies, our results suggest that thermal acclimation of photosynthetic capacity makes tropical and temperate C less vulnerable to warming, but reduces the warming-induced C uptake in the boreal region under elevated CO 2 . © 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.

The impact of global warming on germination and seedling emergence in Alliaria petiolata, a woodland species with dormancy loss dependent on low temperature.

PubMed

Footitt, S; Huang, Z; Ölcer-Footitt, H; Clay, H; Finch-Savage, W E

2018-07-01

The impact of global warming on seed dormancy loss and germination was investigated in Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard), a common woodland/hedgerow plant in Eurasia, considered invasive in North America. Increased temperature may have serious implications, since seeds of this species germinate and emerge at low temperatures early in spring to establish and grow before canopy development of competing species. Dormancy was evaluated in seeds buried in field soils. Seedling emergence was also investigated in the field, and in a thermogradient tunnel under global warming scenarios representing predicted UK air temperatures through to 2080. Dormancy was simple, and its relief required the accumulation of low temperature chilling time. Under a global warming scenario, dormancy relief and seedling emergence declined and seed mortality increased as soil temperature increased along a thermal gradient. Seedling emergence advanced with soil temperature, peaking 8 days earlier under 2080 conditions. The results indicate that as mean temperature increases due to global warming, the chilling requirement for dormancy relief may not be fully satisfied, but seedling emergence will continue from low dormancy seeds in the population. Adaptation resulting from selection of this low dormancy proportion is likely to reduce the overall population chilling requirement. Seedling emergence is also likely to keep pace with the advancement of biological spring, enabling A. petiolata to maintain its strategy of establishment before the woodland canopy closes. However, this potential for adaptation may be countered by increased seed mortality in the seed bank as soils warm. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Warming intensify CO2 flux and nutrient release from algal wrack subsidies on sandy beaches.

PubMed

Lastra, Mariano; López, Jesús; Rodil, Iván F

2018-04-18

Algal wrack subsidies underpin most of the food web structure of exposed sandy beaches and are responsible of important biogeochemical processes that link marine and terrestrial ecosystems. The response in decomposition of algal wrack deposits to global warming has not been studied in ocean-exposed sandy beaches to date. With this aim, passive open top chambers (OTCs) were used to increase soil temperature within the range predicted by the IPCC for western Europe (between 0.5 and 1.5°C), following the hypothesis that the biogeochemical processing of macroalgal wrack subsidies would accelerate in response to temperature increase. The effect of temperature manipulation on three target substrates: fresh and aged macroalgae, and bare sand, was tested. Results indicated that a small warming (<0.5°C) affected the wrack decomposition process through traceable increases in soil respiration through CO 2 flux, inorganic nutrients within the interstitial environment (N and P), sediment organic contents measured through the amount of proteins and microbial pool through the total soil DNA. The different responses of soil variables in the studied substrates indicated that the decomposition stage of stranded macroalgae influences the biogeochemical processing of organic matter in sandy beaches. Thus, CO 2 fluxes, releases of organic and inorganic nutrients and microbial activity intensify in aged wrack deposits. Our results predict that expected global warming will increase the release of inorganic nutrients to the coastal ocean by 30% for the N (21 Gg/year) and 5.9% for P (14 Gg/year); that increase for the flow of C to the atmosphere as CO 2 was estimated in 8.2% (523 Gg/year). This study confirms the key role of sandy beaches in recycling ocean-derived organic matter, highlighting their sensitivity to a changing scenario of global warming that predicts significant increases in temperature over the next few decades. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Seasonal meridional energy balance and thermal structure of the atmosphere of Uranus - A radiative-convective-dynamical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Friedson, James; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

1987-01-01

A model is presented for the thermodynamics of the seasonal meridional energy balance and thermal structure of the Uranian atmosphere. The model considers radiation and small-scale convection, and dynamical heat fluxes due to large-scale baroclinic eddies. Phase oscillations with a period of 0.5 Uranian year are discerned in the total internal power and global enthalpy storage. The variations in the identity of the main transport agent with the magnitude of the internal heat source are discussed. It is shown that meridional heat transport in the atmosphere is sufficient to lower seasonal horizontal temperature contrasts below those predicted with radiative-convection models.

Biological characteristics of Anticarsia gemmatalis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) for three consecutive generations under different temperatures: understanding the possible impact of global warming on a soybean pest.

PubMed

da Silva, D M; Hoffmann-Campo, C B; de Freitas Bueno, A; de Freitas Bueno, R C O; de Oliveira, M C N; Moscardi, F

2012-06-01

Climate changes can affect the distribution and intensity of insect infestations through direct effects on their life cycles. Experiments were carried out during three consecutive generations to evaluate the effect of different temperatures (25°C, 28°C, 31°C, 34°C and 37±1°C) on biological traits of the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis Hübner, 1818 (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). The insects were fed on artificial diet and reared in environmental chambers set at 14 h photophase. The developmental cycle slowed with the increase in the temperature, within the 25°C to 34°C range. Male and female longevities were reduced with an increase in temperature from 25°C to 28°C. Egg viability was highest at 25°C, and the sex ratio was not influenced by temperature, in the three generations. There was no interactive effect between development time and temperature on pupal weight. The results suggested that the increase in the temperature negatively impacted A. gemmatalis development inside the studied temperature range, indicating a possible future reduction of its occurrence on soybean crops, as a consequence of global warming, mainly considering its impact on tropical countries where this plant is cropped. A. gemmatalis was not able to adapt to higher temperatures in a three-generation interval for the studied temperature range. However, a gradual increase and a longer adaptation period may favor insect selection and consequently adaptation, and must be considered in future studies in this area. Moreover, it is important to consider that global warming might turn cold areas more suitable to A. gemmatalis outbreaks. Therefore, more than a future reduction of A. gemmatalis occurrence due to global warming, we might expect changes regarding its area of occurrence on a global perspective.

BVOC emission in Norway spruce: the effect of stand structure, high temperature and ozone levels.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pallozzi, Emanuele; Guidolotti, Gabriele; Večeřová, Kristýna; Esposito, Raffaela; Lusini, Ilaria; Juráň, Stanislav; Urban, Otmar; Calfapietra, Carlo

2015-04-01

Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) is a widely distributed conifer species in the boreal zone and mountain areas of central Europe and is a moderate emitter of volatile organic compounds (BVOC). Although the vaporization and diffusion processes from resin ducts were generally considered to be the main processes for monoterpene emissions in conifers, recently it has been showed that a significant portion (up to one third) of monoterpene emissions of Norway spruce can originate from novel biosynthesis, thus depending on photosynthetic processes. For this reason, both biosynthesis and emission are strongly influenced by the environment and the stand structure. They increase with both increasing light and temperature during the warmer periods, although those are the periods with the higher ozone concentration that usually act as an inhibitor of both assimilation and isoprenoids synthesis and emission. On the other hand, stand structure can play an important role, because the photosynthetic capacity is influenced by temperature and light conditions through the canopy. In order to assess the effects of stand structure, temperature and ozone on isoprenoids emission of Norway spruce we carried out field and laboratory experiments. In the experimental field campaigns we measured: assimilation and BVOC emission from needles of sun and shade layers within the canopy of the spruce forest present at the Bily Kriz experimental research site (Moravian-Silesian Beskydy Mountains, 49° 33' N, 18° 32' E, NE of Czech Republic, 908 m a.s.l.). Moreover in the same layers we measured continuously concentration of BVOCs in the air using a PTR-TOF-MS. In laboratory we analyzed the effects of short-term exposure to high temperature and high ozone concentrations on branches of spruce trees collected at the Bily Kriz experimental research site. Preliminary results show that in Norway spruce both stand structure and environmental conditions influenced the gas exchange and BVOC emission rates. The exposure to high temperature and the position of the needles at the sun layer positively affect the BVOC emission, while the short-term exposure to high ozone concentration did not significantly affect BVOC emissions. The study contributes to increase our understanding about the environmental and structural controls of BVOC emission in response to both tropospheric ozone and global changes.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.

PubMed

Coomes, David A; Flores, Olivier; Holdaway, Robert; Jucker, Tommaso; Lines, Emily R; Vanderwel, Mark C

2014-12-01

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Biocrusts in the context of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reed, Sasha C.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Ochoa-Hueso, Raul; Kuske, Cheryl; Darrouzet-Nardi, Anthony N.; Darby, Brian; Sinsabaugh, Bob; Oliver, Mel; Sancho, Leo; Belnap, Jayne

2016-01-01

A wide range of studies show global environmental change will profoundly affect the structure, function, and dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The research synthesized here underscores that biocrust communities are also likely to respond significantly to global change drivers, with a large potential for modification to their abundance, composition, and function. We examine how elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate change (increased temperature and altered precipitation), and nitrogen deposition affect biocrusts and the ecosystems they inhabit. We integrate experimental and observational data, as well as physiological, community ecology, and biogeochemical perspectives. Taken together, these data highlight the potential for biocrust organisms to respond dramatically to environmental change and show how changes to biocrust community composition translate into effects on ecosystem function (e.g., carbon and nutrient cycling, soil stability, energy balance). Due to the importance of biocrusts in regulating dryland ecosystem processes and the potential for large modifications to biocrust communities, an improved understanding and predictive capacity regarding biocrust responses to environmental change are of scientific and societal relevance.

Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Mumby, P J; Hooten, A J; Steneck, R S; Greenfield, P; Gomez, E; Harvell, C D; Sale, P F; Edwards, A J; Caldeira, K; Knowlton, N; Eakin, C M; Iglesias-Prieto, R; Muthiga, N; Bradbury, R H; Dubi, A; Hatziolos, M E

2007-12-14

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

Comparison of Modeling Approaches for Carbon Partitioning: Impact on Estimates of Global Net Primary Production and Equilibrium Biomass of Woody Vegetation from MODIS GPP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ise, T.; Litton, C. M.; Giardina, C. P.; Ito, A.

2009-12-01

Plant partitioning of carbon (C) to above- vs. belowground, to growth vs. respiration, and to short vs. long lived tissues exerts a large influence on ecosystem structure and function with implications for the global C budget. Importantly, outcomes of process-based terrestrial vegetation models are likely to vary substantially with different C partitioning algorithms. However, controls on C partitioning patterns remain poorly quantified, and studies have yielded variable, and at times contradictory, results. A recent meta-analysis of forest studies suggests that the ratio of net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP) is fairly conservative across large scales. To illustrate the effect of this unique meta-analysis-based partitioning scheme (MPS), we compared an application of MPS to a terrestrial satellite-based (MODIS) GPP to estimate NPP vs. two global process-based vegetation models (Biome-BGC and VISIT) to examine the influence of C partitioning on C budgets of woody plants. Due to the temperature dependence of maintenance respiration, NPP/GPP predicted by the process-based models increased with latitude while the ratio remained constant with MPS. Overall, global NPP estimated with MPS was 17 and 27% lower than the process-based models for temperate and boreal biomes, respectively, with smaller differences in the tropics. Global equilibrium biomass of woody plants was then calculated from the NPP estimates and tissue turnover rates from VISIT. Since turnover rates differed greatly across tissue types (i.e., metabolically active vs. structural), global equilibrium biomass estimates were sensitive to the partitioning scheme employed. The MPS estimate of global woody biomass was 7-21% lower than that of the process-based models. In summary, we found that model output for NPP and equilibrium biomass was quite sensitive to the choice of C partitioning schemes. Carbon use efficiency (CUE; NPP/GPP) by forest biome and the globe. Values are means for 2001-2006.

Near-extinction and final burnout in coal combustion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hurt, R.H.; Davis, K.A.

The late stages of char combustion have a special technological significance, as carbon conversions of 99% or greater are typically required for the economic operation of pulverized coal fired boilers. In the present article, two independent optical techniques are used to investigate near-extinction and final burnout phenomenas. Captive particle image sequences, combined with in situ optical measurements on entrained particles, provide dramatic illustration of the asymptotic nature of the char burnout process. Single particle combustion to complete burnout is seen to comprise two distinct stages: (1) a rapid high-temperature combustion stage, consuming about 70% of the char carbon and endingmore » with near-extinction of the heterogeneous reactions due to a loss of global particle reactivity, and (2) a final burnout stage occurring slowly at lower temperatures. For particles containing mineral matter, the second stage can be further subdivided into: (2a) late char combustion, which begins after the near-extinction event, and converts carbon-rich particles to mixed particle types at a lower temperature and a slower rate; and (2b) decarburization of ash -- the removal of residual carbon inclusions from inorganic (ash) frameworks in the very late stages of combustion. This latter process can be extremely slow, requiring over an order of magnitude more time than the primary rapid combustion stage. For particles with very little ash, the loss of global reactivity leading to early near-extinction is clearly related to changes in the carbonaceous char matrix, which evolves over the course of combustion. Current global kinetic models used for the prediction of char combustion rates and carbon burnout in boilers do not predict the asymptotic nature of char combustion. More realistic models accounting for the evolution of char structure are needed to make accurate predictions in the range of industrial interest.« less

The Optical Profiling of the Atmospheric Limb (OPAL) CubeSat Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeppesen, M.; Miller, J.; Cox, W.; Taylor, M. J.; Swenson, C.; Neilsen, T. L.; Fish, C. S.; Scherliess, L.; Christensen, A. B.; Cleave, M.

2015-12-01

The Earth's lower thermosphere is an important interface region between the neutral atmosphere and the "space weather" environment. While the high-latitude region of the thermosphere responds promptly to energy inputs, relatively little is known about the global/regional response to these energy inputs. Global temperatures are predicted to respond within 3-6 hours, but the details of the thermal response of the atmosphere as energy transports away from high-latitude source regions is not well understood. The Optical Profiling of the Atmospheric Limb (OPAL) mission aims to characterize this thermal response through observation of the temperature structure of the lower thermosphere at mid- and low-latitudes. The OPAL instrument is designed to map global thermospheric temperature variability over the critical "thermospheric gap" region (~100-140 km altitude) by spectroscopic analysis of molecular oxygen A-band emission (758 - 768 nm). The OPAL instrument is a grating-based imaging spectrometer with refractive optics and a high-efficiency volume holographic grating (VHG). The scene is sampled by 7 parallel slits that form non-overlapping spectral profiles at the focal plane with resolution of 0.5 nm (spectral), 1.5 km (limb profiling), and 60 km (horizontal sampling). A CCD camera at the instrument focal plane delivers low noise and high sensitivity. The instrument is designed to strongly reject stray light from daylight regions of the earth. The OPAL mission is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) CubeSat-based Science Missions for Geospace and Atmospheric Research program. The OPAL instrument, CubeSat bus and mission are being designed, built and executed by a team comprised of students and professors from Utah State University, Dixie State University and the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, with support from professional scientists and engineers from the Space Dynamics Laboratory and Hawk Institute for Space Science.

Optical Profiling of the Atmospheric Limb CubeSat Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeppesen, M.; Taylor, M. J.; Swenson, C.; Marchant, A.

2014-12-01

The Earth's lower thermosphere is an important interface region between the neutral atmosphere and the "space weather" environment. While the high-latitude region of the thermosphere responds promptly to energy inputs, relatively little is known about the global/regional response to these energy inputs. Global temperatures are predicted to respond within 3-6 hours, but the details of the thermal response of the atmosphere as energy transports away from high-latitude source regions is not well understood. The Optical Profiling of the Atmospheric Limb (OPAL) mission aims to characterize this thermal response through observation of the temperature structure of the lower thermosphere at mid- and low-latitudes. The OPAL instrument is designed to map global thermospheric temperature variability over the critical "thermospheric gap" region (~100-140 km altitude) by spectroscopic analysis of molecular oxygen A-band emission (758 - 768 nm). The OPAL instrument is a grating-based imaging spectrometer with refractive optics and a high-efficiency volume holographic grating (VHG). The scene is sampled by 7 parallel slits that form non-overlapping spectral profiles at the focal plane with resolution of 0.5 nm (spectral), 1.5 km (limb profiling), and 60 km (horizontal sampling). A CCD camera at the instrument focal plane delivers low noise and high sensitivity. The instrument is designed to strongly reject stray light from daylight regions of the earth. The OPAL mission is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) CubeSat-based Science Missions for Geospace and Atmospheric Research program. The OPAL instrument and mission will be designed, built and executed by a team comprised of students and professors from Utah State University, Dixie State University and the University of Maryland Eastern Shore, with support from professional scientists and engineers from the Space Dynamics Laboratory and Hawk Institute for Space Science.

MISST: The Multi-Sensor Improved Sea Surface Temperature Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

climate change studies, fisheries management, and a wide range of other applications. Measurements are taken by several satellites carrying infrared and...TEMPERATURE PROJECT ABSTRACT. Sea surface temperature (SST) measurements are vital to global weather prediction, climate change studies, fisheries management...important variables related to the global ocean-atmosphere system. It is a key indicator of climate change , is widely applied to studies of upper

The linkage between stratospheric water vapor and surface temperature in an observation-constrained coupled general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan; Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Read, William G.; Anderson, John

2017-04-01

We assess the interactions between stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and surface temperature during the past two decades using satellite observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). From 1992 to 2013, to first order, the observed SWV exhibited three distinct piece-wise trends: a steady increase from 1992 to 2000, an abrupt drop from 2000 to 2004, and a gradual recovery after 2004, while the global-mean surface temperature experienced a strong increase until 2000 and a warming hiatus after 2000. The atmosphere-only CESM shows that the seasonal variation of tropical-mean (30°S-30°N) SWV is anticorrelated with that of the tropical-mean sea surface temperature (SST), while the correlation between the tropical SWV and SST anomalies on the interannual time scale is rather weak. By nudging the modeled SWV to prescribed profiles in coupled atmosphere-slab ocean experiments, we investigate the impact of SWV variations on surface temperature change. We find that a uniform 1 ppmv (0.5 ppmv) SWV increase (decrease) leads to an equilibrium global mean surface warming (cooling) of 0.12 ± 0.05 °C (-0.07 ± 0.05 °C). Sensitivity experiments show that the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to SWV perturbations over the extratropics is larger than that over the tropics. The observed sudden drop of SWV from 2000 to 2004 produces a global mean surface cooling of about -0.048 ± 0.041 °C, which suggests that a persistent change in SWV would make an imprint on long-term variations of global-mean surface temperature. A constant linear increase in SWV based on the satellite-observed rate of SWV change yields a global mean surface warming of 0.03 ± 0.01 °C/decade over a 50-year period, which accounts for about 19 % of the observed surface temperature increase prior to the warming hiatus. In the same experiment, trend analyses during different periods reveal a multi-year adjustment of surface temperature before the response to SWV forcing becomes strong relative to the internal variability in the model.

Global Warming - Are We on Thin Ice?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Compton J.

2007-01-01

The evidence for global warming is very conclusive for the past 400-500 years. Prior to the 16th century, proxy surface temperature data are regionally good but lack a global distribution. The speaker will review surface temperature reconstruction based upon ice cores, coral cores, tree rings, deep sea sediments, and bore holes and discuss the controversy surrounding global warming. This will be contrasted with the excellent data we have from the satellite era of earth observations the past 30+ years that enables the quantitative study of climate across earth science disciplines.

The nonstationary impact of local temperature changes and ENSO on extreme precipitation at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Qiao, Yuanyuan; Duan, Qingyun

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and local temperature are important drivers of extreme precipitation. Understanding the impact of ENSO and temperature on the risk of extreme precipitation over global land will provide a foundation for risk assessment and climate-adaptive design of infrastructure in a changing climate. In this study, nonstationary generalized extreme value distributions were used to model extreme precipitation over global land for the period 1979-2015, with ENSO indicator and temperature as covariates. Risk factors were estimated to quantify the contrast between the influence of different ENSO phases and temperature. The results show that extreme precipitation is dominated by ENSO over 22% of global land and by temperature over 26% of global land. With a warming climate, the risk of high-intensity daily extreme precipitation increases at high latitudes but decreases in tropical regions. For ENSO, large parts of North America, southern South America, and southeastern and northeastern China are shown to suffer greater risk in El Niño years, with more than double the chance of intense extreme precipitation in El Niño years compared with La Niña years. Moreover, regions with more intense precipitation are more sensitive to ENSO. Global climate models were used to investigate the changing relationship between extreme precipitation and the covariates. The risk of extreme, high-intensity precipitation increases across high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but decreases in middle and lower latitudes under a warming climate scenario, and will likely trigger increases in severe flooding and droughts across the globe. However, there is some uncertainties associated with the influence of ENSO on predictions of future extreme precipitation, with the spatial extent and risk varying among the different models.

Long-term global temperature variations under total solar irradiance, cosmic rays, and volcanic activity.

PubMed

Biktash, Lilia

2017-07-01

The effects of total solar irradiance (TSI) and volcanic activity on long-term global temperature variations during solar cycles 19-23 were studied. It was shown that a large proportion of climate variations can be explained by the mechanism of action of TSI and cosmic rays (CRs) on the state of the lower atmosphere and other meteorological parameters. The role of volcanic signals in the 11-year variations of the Earth's climate can be expressed as several years of global temperature drop. Conversely, it was shown that the effects of solar, geophysical, and human activity on climate change interact. It was concluded that more detailed investigations of these very complicated relationships are required, in order to be able to understand issues that affect ecosystems on a global scale.

Local chemical potential, local hardness, and dual descriptors in temperature dependent chemical reactivity theory.

PubMed

Franco-Pérez, Marco; Ayers, Paul W; Gázquez, José L; Vela, Alberto

2017-05-31

In this work we establish a new temperature dependent procedure within the grand canonical ensemble, to avoid the Dirac delta function exhibited by some of the second order chemical reactivity descriptors based on density functional theory, at a temperature of 0 K. Through the definition of a local chemical potential designed to integrate to the global temperature dependent electronic chemical potential, the local chemical hardness is expressed in terms of the derivative of this local chemical potential with respect to the average number of electrons. For the three-ground-states ensemble model, this local hardness contains a term that is equal to the one intuitively proposed by Meneses, Tiznado, Contreras and Fuentealba, which integrates to the global hardness given by the difference in the first ionization potential, I, and the electron affinity, A, at any temperature. However, in the present approach one finds an additional temperature-dependent term that introduces changes at the local level and integrates to zero. Additionally, a τ-hard dual descriptor and a τ-soft dual descriptor given in terms of the product of the global hardness and the global softness multiplied by the dual descriptor, respectively, are derived. Since all these reactivity indices are given by expressions composed of terms that correspond to products of the global properties multiplied by the electrophilic or nucleophilic Fukui functions, they may be useful for studying and comparing equivalent sites in different chemical environments.

Thermosensitivity of growth is determined by chaperone-mediated proteome reallocation

PubMed Central

Chen, Ke; Gao, Ye; Mih, Nathan; O’Brien, Edward J.; Yang, Laurence; Palsson, Bernhard O.

2017-01-01

Maintenance of a properly folded proteome is critical for bacterial survival at notably different growth temperatures. Understanding the molecular basis of thermoadaptation has progressed in two main directions, the sequence and structural basis of protein thermostability and the mechanistic principles of protein quality control assisted by chaperones. Yet we do not fully understand how structural integrity of the entire proteome is maintained under stress and how it affects cellular fitness. To address this challenge, we reconstruct a genome-scale protein-folding network for Escherichia coli and formulate a computational model, FoldME, that provides statistical descriptions of multiscale cellular response consistent with many datasets. FoldME simulations show (i) that the chaperones act as a system when they respond to unfolding stress rather than achieving efficient folding of any single component of the proteome, (ii) how the proteome is globally balanced between chaperones for folding and the complex machinery synthesizing the proteins in response to perturbation, (iii) how this balancing determines growth rate dependence on temperature and is achieved through nonspecific regulation, and (iv) how thermal instability of the individual protein affects the overall functional state of the proteome. Overall, these results expand our view of cellular regulation, from targeted specific control mechanisms to global regulation through a web of nonspecific competing interactions that modulate the optimal reallocation of cellular resources. The methodology developed in this study enables genome-scale integration of environment-dependent protein properties and a proteome-wide study of cellular stress responses. PMID:29073085

28-ka History of Sea Surface Temperature, Primary Productivity and Planktonic Community Variability in the Western Arabian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pourmand, A.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T.

2006-12-01

Uranium-series radionuclides and organic compounds, which represent major groups of planktonic organisms, have been measured in western Arabian Sea sediments that span the past 28 ka. Variability of the Indian Ocean monsoons and their influence on primary productivity, sea surface temperature (SST), and planktonic community structure has been investigated. The average alkenone-derived SST for the glacial was ~3°C lower than that measured for the Holocene. We also identify, for the first time, an interval of exceptionally low SSTs between 19-18.1 ka BP (15.3°C at 18.5 ka). During this time, the low SSTs coincide with high cumulative biomarker fluxes (CBF). We propose that intensification of winter northeast monsoon winds during the glacial period resulted in cold SSTs, deep convective mixing, and enhanced primary productivity. Following the last termination, and within the Holocene, SSTs vary by ~2°C with high CBFs occurring at times of relatively warmer SSTs. The fluxes of dinoflagellates and zooplankton relative to the total flux of organisms remain constant throughout the record. However, transitioning from the glacial to the Holocene, diatom fluxes comparatively increase relative to the total flux of organisms, while those of coccolithophorids decrease. Considering that the Indian Ocean monsoons are an important component of the global climate system, a shift in the planktonic ecosystem structure in the Arabian Sea may have important implications for the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon.

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert B., III

1992-01-01

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Superposed epoch analysis of ion temperatures during CME- and CIR/HSS-driven storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keesee, A. M.; Scime, E. E.

2012-12-01

The NASA Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral atom Spectrometers (TWINS) Mission provides a global view of the magnetosphere with near-continuous coverage. Utilizing a novel technique to calculate ion temperatures from the TWINS energetic neutral atom (ENA) measurements, we generate ion temperature maps of the magnetosphere. These maps can be used to study ion temperature evolution during geomagnetic storms. A superposed epoch analysis of the ion temperature evolution during 48 storms will be presented. Zaniewski et al. [2006] performed a superposed epoch analysis of ion temperatures by storm interval using data from the MENA instrument on the IMAGE mission, demonstrating significant dayside ion heating during the main phase. The TWINS measurements provide more continuous coverage and improved spatial and temporal resolution. Denton and Borovsky [2008] noted differences in ion temperature evolution at geosynchronous orbit between coronal mass ejection (CME)- and corotating interaction region (CIR)/high speed stream (HSS)- driven storms. Using our global ion temperature maps, we have found consistent results for select individual storms [Keesee et al., 2012]. We will present superposed epoch analyses for the subgroups of CME- and CIR/HSS-driven storms to compare global ion temperature evolution during the two types of storms.

Revealing the hidden structural phases of FeRh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jinwoong; Ramesh, R.; Kioussis, Nicholas

2016-11-01

Ab initio electronic structure calculations reveal that tetragonal distortion has a dramatic effect on the relative stability of the various magnetic structures (C-, A-, G-, A'-AFM, and FM) of FeRh giving rise to a wide range of novel stable/metastable structures and magnetic phase transitions between these states. We predict that the cubic G-AFM structure, which was believed thus far to be the ground state, is metastable and that the tetragonally expanded G-AFM is the stable structure. The low energy barrier separating these states suggests phase coexistence at room temperature. We propose an A'-AFM phase to be the global ground state among all magnetic phases which arises from the strain-induced tuning of the exchange interactions. The results elucidate the underlying mechanism for the recent experimental findings of electric-field control of magnetic phase transition driven via tetragonal strain. The magnetic phase transitions open interesting prospects for exploiting strain engineering for the next-generation memory devices.

Monitoring an Induced Permafrost Warming Experiment Using ERT, Temperature, and NMR in Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulrich, C.; Ajo Franklin, J. B.; Ekblaw, I.; Lindsey, N.; Wagner, A. M.; Saari, S.; Daley, T. M.; Freifeld, B. M.

2016-12-01

As global temperatures continue to rise, permafrost landscapes will experience more rapid changes than other global climate zones. Permafrost thaw is a result of increased temperatures in arctic settings resulting in surface deformation and subsurface hydrology changes. From an engineering perspective, surface deformation poses a threat to the stability of existing infrastructure such as roads, utility piping, and building structures. Preemptively detecting or monitoring subsurface thaw dynamics presents a difficult challenge due to the long time scales as deformation occurs. Increased subsurface moisture content results from permafrost thaw of which electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), soil temperature, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) are directly sensitive. In this experiment we evaluate spatial and temporal changes in subsurface permafrost conditions (moisture content and temperature) at a experimental heating plot in Fairbanks, AK. This study focuses on monitoring thaw signatures using multiple collocated electrical resistivity (ERT), borehole temperature, and borehole nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measurements. Timelapse ERT (sensitive to changes in moisture content) was inverted using collocated temperature and NMR to constrain ERT inversions. Subsurface thermal state was monitored with timelapse thermistors, sensitive to soil ice content. NMR was collected in multiple boreholes and is sensitive to changes in moisture content and pore scale distribution. As permafrost thaws more hydrogen, in the form of water, is available resulting in a changing NMR response. NMR requires the availability of liquid water in order to induce spin of the hydrogen molecule, hence, if frozen water molecules will be undetectable. In this study, the permafrost is poised close to 0oC and is mainly silt with small pore dimensions; this combination makes NMR particularly useful due to the possibility of sub-zero thaw conditions within the soil column. Overall this experiment presents a complementary suite of methods that provides feedback on subsurface permafrost state even in cases where soil texture might control unfrozen water content.

Global Mean Temperature Timeseries Projections from GCMs: The Implications of Rebasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S. C.; Stainforth, D. A.; Watkins, N. W.

2017-12-01

Global climate models are assessed by comparison with observations through several benchmarks. One highlighted by the InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is their ability to reproduce "general features of the global and annual mean surface temperature changes over the historical period" [1,2] and to simulate "a trend in global-mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend" [3]. These aspects of annual mean global mean temperature (GMT) change are presented as one feature demonstrating the relevance of these models for climate projections. Here we consider a formal interpretation of "general features" and discuss the implications of this approach to model assessment and intercomparison, for the interpretation of GCM projections. Following the IPCC, we interpret a major element of "general features" as being the slow timescale response to external forcings. (Shorter timescale behaviour such as the response to volcanic eruptions are also elements of "general features" but are not considered here.) Also following the IPCC, we consider only GMT anomalies. The models have absolute temperatures which range over about 3K so this means their timeseries (and the observations) are rebased. We show that rebasing in combination with general agreement, implies a separation of scales which limits the degree to which sub-global behaviour can feedback on the global response. It also implies a degree of linearity in the GMT slow timescale response. For each individual model these implications only apply over the range of absolute temperatures simulated by the model in historic simulations. Taken together, however, they imply consequences over a wider range of GMTs. [1] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Technical Summary: Stocker et al. 2013. [2] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Chapter 9 - "Evaluation of Climate Models": Flato et al. 2013. [3] IPCC, Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group 1, Summary for Policy Makers: IPCC, 2013.

Cosmic-Ray Reaction and Greenhouse Effect of Halogenated Molecules: Culprits for Atmospheric Ozone Depletion and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Q.-B.

2013-07-01

This study is focused on the effects of cosmic rays (solar activity) and halogen-containing molecules (mainly chlorofluorocarbons — CFCs) on atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change. Brief reviews are first given on the cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced-reaction (CRE) theory for O3 depletion and the warming theory of halogenated molecules for climate change. Then natural and anthropogenic contributions to these phenomena are examined in detail and separated well through in-depth statistical analyses of comprehensive measured datasets of quantities, including cosmic rays (CRs), total solar irradiance, sunspot number, halogenated gases (CFCs, CCl4 and HCFCs), CO2, total O3, lower stratospheric temperatures and global surface temperatures. For O3 depletion, it is shown that an analytical equation derived from the CRE theory reproduces well 11-year cyclic variations of both polar O3 loss and stratospheric cooling, and new statistical analyses of the CRE equation with observed data of total O3 and stratospheric temperature give high linear correlation coefficients ≥ 0.92. After the removal of the CR effect, a pronounced recovery by 20 25 % of the Antarctic O3 hole is found, while no recovery of O3 loss in mid-latitudes has been observed. These results show both the correctness and dominance of the CRE mechanism and the success of the Montreal Protocol. For global climate change, in-depth analyses of the observed data clearly show that the solar effect and human-made halogenated gases played the dominant role in Earth's climate change prior to and after 1970, respectively. Remarkably, a statistical analysis gives a nearly zero correlation coefficient (R = -0.05) between corrected global surface temperature data by removing the solar effect and CO2 concentration during 1850-1970. In striking contrast, a nearly perfect linear correlation with coefficients as high as 0.96-0.97 is found between corrected or uncorrected global surface temperature and total amount of stratospheric halogenated gases during 1970-2012. Furthermore, a new theoretical calculation on the greenhouse effect of halogenated gases shows that they (mainly CFCs) could alone result in the global surface temperature rise of 0.6°C in 1970-2002. These results provide solid evidence that recent global warming was indeed caused by the greenhouse effect of anthropogenic halogenated gases. Thus, a slow reversal of global temperature to the 1950 value is predicted for coming 5 7 decades. It is also expected that the global sea level will continue to rise in coming 1 2 decades until the effect of the global temperature recovery dominates over that of the polar O3 hole recovery; after that, both will drop concurrently. All the observed, analytical and theoretical results presented lead to a convincing conclusion that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Climate change and temperature-linked hatchling mortality at a globally important sea turtle nesting site.

PubMed

Laloë, Jacques-Olivier; Cozens, Jacquie; Renom, Berta; Taxonera, Albert; Hays, Graeme C

2017-11-01

The study of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in vertebrates has attracted major scientific interest. Recently, concerns for species with TSD in a warming world have increased because imbalanced sex ratios could potentially threaten population viability. In contrast, relatively little attention has been given to the direct effects of increased temperatures on successful embryonic development. Using 6603 days of sand temperature data recorded across 6 years at a globally important loggerhead sea turtle rookery-the Cape Verde Islands-we show the effects of warming incubation temperatures on the survival of hatchlings in nests. Incorporating published data (n = 110 data points for three species across 12 sites globally), we show the generality of relationships between hatchling mortality and incubation temperature and hence the broad applicability of our findings to sea turtles in general. We use a mechanistic approach supplemented by empirical data to consider the linked effects of warming temperatures on hatchling output and on sex ratios for these species that exhibit TSD. Our results show that higher temperatures increase the natural growth rate of the population as more females are produced. As a result, we project that numbers of nests at this globally important site will increase by approximately 30% by the year 2100. However, as incubation temperatures near lethal levels, the natural growth rate of the population decreases and the long-term survival of this turtle population is threatened. Our results highlight concerns for species with TSD in a warming world and underline the need for research to extend from a focus on temperature-dependent sex determination to a focus on temperature-linked hatchling mortalities. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Maps of Structured Aerosol Activity During the MY 25 Planet-encircling Dust Storm on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, J.; Wilson, R. J.; Cantor, B. A.; Kahre, M. A.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Bridger, A. F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Barnes, J.

2016-12-01

We have produced a sequence of 42 global maps from Ls=165.1-187.7° that delimit the areal extent of structured aerosol activity based on a synthesis of Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data, including Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) daily global maps (DGMs) and wide angle imagery, Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) dust and H2O ice opacity, and Mars general circulation model (MGCM) derived dust opacity. The primary motivation of this work is to examine the temporal and spatial relationship between dust storms observed by MOC and baroclinic eddies inferred from Fast Fourier Synoptic Mapping (FFSM) of TES temperatures in order to study the initiation and evolution of Mars year (MY) 25 planet-encircling dust storm (PDS) precursor phase dust storms. A secondary motivation is to provide improved input to MGCM simulations. Assuming that structured dust storms indicate active dust lifting, these maps allow us to define potential dust lifting regions. This work has two implications for martian atmospheric science. First, integration of MGS data has enabled us to develop improved quantitative and qualitative descriptions of storm evolution that may be used to constrain estimates of dust lifting regions, horizontal dust distribution, and to infer associated circulations. Second, we believe that these maps provide better bases and constraints for modeling storm initiation. Based on our analysis of these MGS data, we propose the following working hypothesis to explain the dynamical processes responsible for PDS initiation and expansion. Six eastward-traveling transient baroclinic eddies triggered the MY 25 precursor storms in Hellas during Ls=176.2-184.6° due to the enhanced dust lifting associated with their low-level wind and stress fields. This was followed by a seventh eddy that contributed to expansion on Ls=186.3°. Increased opacity and temperatures from dust lifting associated with the first three eddies enhanced thermal tides which supported further storm initiation and expansion out of Hellas. Constructive interference of eddies and other circulation components including sublimation flow, anabatic winds (daytime upslope), and diurnal tides may have contributed to storm onset in, and expansion out of Hellas.

An Evaluation of Subsurface Microbial Activity Conditional to Subsurface Temperature, Porosity, and Permeability at North American Carbon Sequestration Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, B.; Mordensky, S.; Verba, Circe

Several nations, including the United States, recognize global climate change as a force transforming the global ecosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO 2) is a greenhouse gas that contributes to the evolving climate. Reduction of atmospheric CO 2 levels is a goal for many nations and carbon sequestration which traps CO 2 in the Earth’s subsurface is one method to reduce atmospheric CO 2 levels. Among the variables that must be considered in developing this technology to a national scale is microbial activity. Microbial activity or biomass can change rock permeability, alter artificial seals around boreholes, and play a key role inmore » biogeochemistry and accordingly may determine how CO 2 is sequestered underground. Certain physical parameters of a reservoir found in literature (e.g., temperature, porosity, and permeability) may indicate whether a reservoir can host microbial communities. In order to estimate which subsurface formations may host microbes, this report examines the subsurface temperature, porosity, and permeability of underground rock formations that have high potential to be targeted for CO 2 sequestration. Of the 268 North American wellbore locations from the National Carbon Sequestration Database (NATCARB; National Energy and Technology Laboratory, 2015) and 35 sites from Nelson and Kibler (2003), 96 sequestration sites contain temperature data. Of these 96 sites, 36 sites have temperatures that would be favorable for microbial survival, 48 sites have mixed conditions for supporting microbial populations, and 11 sites would appear to be unfavorable to support microbial populations. Future studies of microbe viability would benefit from a larger database with more formation parameters (e.g. mineralogy, structure, and groundwater chemistry), which would help to increase understanding of where CO 2 sequestration could be most efficiently implemented.« less

Temperature effects on seaweed-sustaining top-down control vary with season.

PubMed

Werner, Franziska J; Graiff, Angelika; Matthiessen, Birte

2016-03-01

Rising seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations (ocean acidification) represent two of the most influential factors impacting marine ecosystems in the face of global climate change. In ecological climate change research, full-factorial experiments performed across seasons in multispecies, cross-trophic-level settings are essential as they permit a more realistic estimation of direct and indirect effects as well as the relative importance of the effects of both major environmental stressors on ecosystems. In benthic mesocosm experiments, we tested the responses of coastal Baltic Sea Fucus vesiculosus communities to elevated seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations across four seasons of one year. While increasing [CO2] levels had only minor effects, warming had strong and persistent effects on grazers, and the resulting effects on the Fucus community were found to be season dependent. In late summer, a temperature-driven collapse of grazers caused a cascading effect from the consumers to the foundation species, resulting in overgrowth of Fucus thalli by epiphytes. In fall/winter (outside the growing season of epiphytes), intensified grazing under warming resulted in a significant reduction in Fucus biomass. Thus, we were able to confirm the prediction that future increases in water temperatures will influence marine food-web processes by altering top-down control, but we were also able to show that specific consequences for food-web structure depend on the season. Since F. vesiculosus is the dominant habitat-forming brown algal system in the Baltic Sea, its potential decline under global warming implies a loss of key functions and services such as provision of nutrient storage, substrate, food, shelter, and nursery grounds for a diverse community of marine invertebrates and fish in Baltic Sea coastal waters.

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE ISSUES IN THE WESTERN INDIAN OCEAN REGION

EPA Science Inventory

Mounting evidence from both instrumental and proxy records shows global climate continues to change. nalysis of near-surface temperatures over land and oceans during the past 130 years shows marked warming during the first half of this century with relatively steady temperatures ...

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

Joint Assimilation of SMOS Brightness Temperature and GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations for Improved Soil Moisture Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Girotto, Manuela; Reichle, Rolf H.; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Rodell, Matthew

2017-01-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0 - 5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Joint assimilation of SMOS brightness temperature and GRACE terrestrial water storage observations for improved soil moisture estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girotto, M.; Reichle, R. H.; De Lannoy, G.; Rodell, M.

2017-12-01

Observations from recent soil moisture missions (e.g. SMOS) have been used in innovative data assimilation studies to provide global high spatial (i.e. 40 km) and temporal resolution (i.e. 3-days) soil moisture profile estimates from microwave brightness temperature observations. In contrast with microwave-based satellite missions that are only sensitive to near-surface soil moisture (0-5 cm), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission provides accurate measurements of the entire vertically integrated terrestrial water storage column but, it is characterized by low spatial (i.e. 150,000 km2) and temporal (i.e. monthly) resolutions. Data assimilation studies have shown that GRACE-TWS primarily affects (in absolute terms) deeper moisture storages (i.e., groundwater). This work hypothesizes that unprecedented soil water profile accuracy can be obtained through the joint assimilation of GRACE terrestrial water storage and SMOS brightness temperature observations. A particular challenge of the joint assimilation is the use of the two different types of measurements that are relevant for hydrologic processes representing different temporal and spatial scales. The performance of the joint assimilation strongly depends on the chosen assimilation methods, measurement and model error spatial structures. The optimization of the assimilation technique constitutes a fundamental step toward a multi-variate multi-resolution integrative assimilation system aiming to improve our understanding of the global terrestrial water cycle.

Effects of ultraviolet radiation and temperature on the ultrastructure of zoospores of the brown macroalga Laminaria hyperborea.

PubMed

Steinhoff, F S; Wiencke, C; Müller, R; Bischof, K

2008-05-01

The interactive effects of an 8 h exposure to UV radiation and altered temperatures on the ultrastructure and germination of zoospores of the sublittoral brown alga Laminaria hyperborea (Gunn.) Foslie were investigated for the first time. Spores were exposed to four temperatures (2, 7, 12 and 17 degrees C) and three light regimes (PAR, PAR + UV-A, PAR + UV-A+UV-B). Freshly-released spores of L. hyperborea lack a cell wall and contain a nucleus with fine granular nucleoplasm and a nucleolus, one chloroplast, several mitochondria, dictyosomes and an endoplasmatic reticulum. Further, several kinds of so-called adhesive vesicles, lipid globuli and physodes containing UV-absorbing phlorotannins are embedded in the cytoplasm. No eye-spot is present. Physodes were found but they were rare and small. After an 8 h exposure to UV-B, the nucleoplasm had a mottled structure, chloroplasts contained plastoglobuli, the structure of the mitochondria changed from crista- to sacculus-type and germination was strongly inhibited at all temperatures. UV-A only had an impact on the ultrastructure at the highest temperature tested. The strongest effects were found at 17 degrees C, where germination was reduced to 35%, 32% and 9% after exposure to PAR, PAR+UV-A and PAR + UV-A + UV-B, respectively. This study indicates that UV-B radiation has strong damaging effects on the physiology and ultrastructure of zoospores of L. hyperborea. The results are important for developing scenarios for the effect of enhanced UV radiation and increasing temperatures caused by global climate changes.

An Evaluation of C1-C3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) Metrics: Lifetimes, Ozone Depletion Potentials, Radiative Efficiencies, Global Warming and Global Temperature Potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, J. B.; Papanastasiou, D. K.; Marshall, P.

2017-12-01

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) have been used as chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) substitutes in a number of applications, e.g. refrigerator and air-conditioning systems. Although HCFCs have lower ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs) compared to CFCs, they are potent greenhouse gases. The twenty-eighth meeting of the parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Kigali, 2016) included a list of 274 HCFCs to be controlled under the Montreal Protocol. However, from this list, only 15 of the HCFCs have values for their atmospheric lifetime, ODP, global warming potential (GWP), and global temperature potential (GTP) that are based on fundamental experimental studies, while 48 are registered compounds. In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the atmospheric lifetimes, ODPs, radiative efficiencies (REs), GWPs, and GTPs for all 274 HCFCs to be included in the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric lifetimes were estimated based on HCFC reactivity with OH radicals and O(1D), as well as their removal by UV photolysis using structure activity relationships and reactivity trends. ODP values are based on the semi-empirical approach described in the WMO/UNEP ozone assessment. Radiative efficiencies were estimated, based on infrared spectra calculated using theoretical electronic structure methods (Gaussian 09). GWPs and GTPs were calculated relative to CO2 using our estimated atmospheric lifetimes and REs. The details of the methodology will be discussed as well as the associated uncertainties. This study has provided a consistent set of atmospheric metrics for a wide range of HCFCs that support future policy decisions. More accurate metrics for a specific HCFC, if desired, would require fundamental laboratory studies to better define the OH reactivity and infrared absorption spectrum of the compound of interest. Overall, HCFCs within the same family (isomers) show a large ODP, GWP, GTP dependence on the molecular geometry of the isomers. The atmospheric lifetime of HCFCs is predominantly determined by reaction with the OH radical, with photolysis making only a minor contribution for long-lived highly chlorinated compounds. RE values are within the 0.05 and 0.3 W m-2 ppb-1 range with highly fluorinated HCFCs having the largest RE values.

Changes in Extremely Hot Summers over the Global Land Area under Various Warming Targets

PubMed Central

Wang, Lei; Huang, Jianbin; Luo, Yong; Yao, Yao; Zhao, Zongci

2015-01-01

Summer temperature extremes over the global land area were investigated by comparing 26 models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) with observations from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Monthly data of the observations and models were averaged for each season, and statistics were calculated for individual models before averaging them to obtain ensemble means. The summers with temperature anomalies (relative to 1951–1980) exceeding 3σ (σ is based on the local internal variability) are defined as “extremely hot”. The models well reproduced the statistical characteristics evolution, and partly captured the spatial distributions of historical summer temperature extremes. If the global mean temperature increases 2°C relative to the pre-industrial level, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur over nearly 40% of the land area (multi-model ensemble mean projection). Summers that exceed 5σ warming are projected to occur over approximately 10% of the global land area, which were rarely observed during the reference period. Scenarios reaching warming levels of 3°C to 5°C were also analyzed. After exceeding the 5°C warming target, “extremely hot” summers are projected to occur throughout the entire global land area, and summers that exceed 5σ warming would become common over 70% of the land area. In addition, the areas affected by “extremely hot” summers are expected to rapidly expand by more than 25%/°C as the global mean temperature increases by up to 3°C before slowing to less than 16%/°C as the temperature continues to increase by more than 3°C. The area that experiences summers with warming of 5σ or more above the warming target of 2°C is likely to maintain rapid expansion of greater than 17%/°C. To reduce the impacts and damage from severely hot summers, the global mean temperature increase should remain low. PMID:26090931

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming.

PubMed

Paital, Biswaranjan; Panda, Sumana Kumari; Hati, Akshaya Kumar; Mohanty, Bobllina; Mohapatra, Manoj Kumar; Kanungo, Shyama; Chainy, Gagan Bihari Nityananda

2016-02-26

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 °C-5.8 °C by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress (OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium.

Temporal variability in Cu speciation, phytotoxicity, and soil microbial activity of Cu-polluted soils as affected by elevated temperature.

PubMed

Fu, Qing-Long; Weng, Nanyan; Fujii, Manabu; Zhou, Dong-Mei

2018-03-01

Global warming has obtained increasing attentions due to its multiple impacts on agro-ecosystem. However, limited efforts had been devoted to reveal the temporal variability of metal speciation and phytotoxicity of heavy metal-polluted soils affected by elevated temperature under the global warming scenario. In this study, effects of elevated temperature (15 °C, 25 °C, and 35 °C) on the physicochemical properties, microbial metabolic activities, and phytotoxicity of three Cu-polluted soils were investigated by a laboratory incubation study. Soil physicochemical properties were observed to be significantly altered by elevated temperature with the degree of temperature effect varying in soil types and incubation time. The Biolog and enzymatic tests demonstrated that soil microbial activities were mainly controlled and decreased with increasing incubation temperature. Moreover, plant assays confirmed that the phytotoxicity and Cu uptake by wheat roots were highly dependent on soil types but less affected by incubation temperature. Overall, the findings in this study have highlighted the importance of soil types to better understand the temperature-dependent alternation of soil properties, Cu speciation and bioavailability, as well as phytotoxicity of Cu-polluted soils under global warming scenario. The present study also suggests the necessary of investigating effects of soil types on the transport and accumulation of toxic elements in soil-crop systems under global warming scenario. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

DOE PAGES

Wieder, William R.; Hartman, Melannie D.; Sulman, Benjamin N.; ...

2017-11-09

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models thatmore » can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0–100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, tem- perature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temper- ature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. Here, by providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about fac- tors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.« less

Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wieder, William R.; Hartman, Melannie D.; Sulman, Benjamin N.

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models thatmore » can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0–100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forcing experiments with changed inputs, tem- perature, and moisture suggest that uncertainty associated with freeze-thaw processes as well as soil textural effects on soil carbon stabilization were larger than direct temper- ature uncertainties among models. Finally, the models generated distinct projections about the timing and magnitude of seasonal heterotrophic respiration rates, again reflecting structural uncertainties that were related to environmental sensitivities and assumptions about physicochemical stabilization of soil organic matter. Here, by providing a computationally tractable and numerically consistent framework to evaluate models we aim to better understand uncertainties among models and generate insights about fac- tors regulating the turnover of soil organic matter.« less

Pressure and Temperature Sensitive Paint Field System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sprinkle, Danny R.; Obara, Clifford J.; Amer, Tahani R.; Faulcon, Nettie D.; Carmine, Michael T.; Burkett, Cecil G.; Pritchard, Daniel W.; Oglesby, Donald M.

2004-01-01

This report documents the Pressure and Temperature Sensitive Paint Field System that is used to provide global surface pressure and temperature measurements on models tested in Langley wind tunnels. The system was developed and is maintained by Global Surface Measurements Team personnel of the Data Acquisition and Information Management Branch in the Research Facilities Services Competency. Descriptions of the system hardware and software are presented and operational procedures are detailed.

Impact of the extratropical dynamical modes upon troposphere temperature using an approach based on advection of temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Luis; Vidal, Oscar; Nieto, Raquel; de La Torre, Laura; García, Ricardo; Hernández, Emiliano; Bojariu, Roxana; Ribera, Pedro; Gallego, David

2003-03-01

Advection of temperature (AT) is used to diagnose the influence of changes in extratropical atmospheric circulation on air temperature. AT is calculated at three different pressure levels (850, 500 and 200 hPa) for the period 1958-98 using NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. Global and hemispheric annual series of AT have a common feature consisting of positive values and trends at 850 and 500 hPa and negative values and trends at 200 hPa, together with quasi-biennial and quasi-quadrennial oscillations for most of the series. Significant correlations were found between most of the Northern Hemisphere and global AT series with the Arctic oscillation and between most of the Southern Hemisphere and global AT series with the Antarctic oscillation.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

2011-07-19

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration.

PubMed

Dai, Yanjiao; Yang, Jiashuo; Hu, Wei; Zahoor, Rizwan; Chen, Binglin; Zhao, Wenqing; Meng, Yali; Zhou, Zhiguo

2017-08-23

Global warming could possibly increase the air temperature by 1.8-4.0 °C in the coming decade. Cotton fiber is an essential raw material for the textile industry. Fiber length, which was found negatively related to the excessively high temperature, determines yarn quality to a great extent. To investigate the effects of global warming on cotton fiber length and its mechaism, cottons grown in artificially elevated temperature (34.6/30.5 °C, T day /T night ) and ambient temperature (31.6/27.3 °C) regions have been investigated. Becaused of the high sensitivities of enzymes V-ATPase, PEPC, and genes GhXTH1 and GhXTH2 during fiber elongation when responding to high temperature stress, the fiber rapid elongation duration (FRED) has been shortened, which led to a significant suppression on final fiber length. Through comprehensive analysis, T night had a great influence on fiber elongation, which means T n could be deemed as an ideal index for forecasting the degree of high temperature stress would happen to cotton fiber property in future. Therefore, we speculate the global warming would bring unfavorable effects on cotton fiber length, which needs to take actions in advance for minimizing the loss in cotton production.

Melting in Martian Snowbanks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zent, A. P.; Sutter, B.

2005-01-01

Precipitation as snow is an emerging paradigm for understanding water flow on Mars, which gracefully resolves many outstanding uncertainties in climatic and geomorphic interpretation. Snowfall does not require a powerful global greenhouse to effect global precipitation. It has long been assumed that global average temperatures greater than 273K are required to sustain liquid water at the surface via rainfall and runoff. Unfortunately, the best greenhouse models to date predict global mean surface temperatures early in Mars' history that differ little from today's, unless exceptional conditions are invoked. Snowfall however, can occur at temperatures less than 273K; all that is required is saturation of the atmosphere. At global temperatures lower than 273K, H2O would have been injected into the atmosphere by impacts and volcanic eruptions during the Noachian, and by obliquity-driven climate oscillations more recently. Snow cover can accumulate for a considerable period, and be available for melting during local spring and summer, unless sublimation rates are sufficient to remove the entire snowpack. We decided to explore the physics that controls the melting of snow in the high-latitude regions of Mars to understand the frequency and drainage of snowmelt in the high martian latitudes.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Tropical fishes dominate temperate reef fish communities within western Japan.

PubMed

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008-2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources.

Tropical Fishes Dominate Temperate Reef Fish Communities within Western Japan

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Yohei; Feary, David A.; Kanda, Masaru; Yamaoka, Kosaku

2013-01-01

Climate change is resulting in rapid poleward shifts in the geographical distribution of tropical and subtropical fish species. We can expect that such range shifts are likely to be limited by species-specific resource requirements, with temperate rocky reefs potentially lacking a range of settlement substrates or specific dietary components important in structuring the settlement and success of tropical and subtropical fish species. We examined the importance of resource use in structuring the distribution patterns of range shifting tropical and subtropical fishes, comparing this with resident temperate fish species within western Japan (Tosa Bay); the abundance, diversity, size class, functional structure and latitudinal range of reef fishes utilizing both coral reef and adjacent rocky reef habitat were quantified over a 2 year period (2008–2010). This region has undergone rapid poleward expansion of reef-building corals in response to increasing coastal water temperatures, and forms one of the global hotspots for rapid coastal changes. Despite the temperate latitude surveyed (33°N, 133°E) the fish assemblage was both numerically, and in terms of richness, dominated by tropical fishes. Such tropical faunal dominance was apparent within both coral, and rocky reef habitats. The size structure of the assemblage suggested that a relatively large number of tropical species are overwintering within both coral and rocky habitats, with a subset of these species being potentially reproductively active. The relatively high abundance and richness of tropical species with obligate associations with live coral resources (i.e., obligate corallivores) shows that this region holds the most well developed temperate-located tropical fish fauna globally. We argue that future tropicalisation of the fish fauna in western Japan, associated with increasing coral habitat development and reported increasing shifts in coastal water temperatures, may have considerable positive economic impacts to the local tourism industry and bring qualitative changes to both local and regional fisheries resources. PMID:24312528

Trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus.

PubMed

Yan, Shao-Min; Wu, Guang

2009-12-01

The global warming is an important factor affecting the biological evolution, and the influenza is an important disease that threatens humans with possible epidemics or pandemics. In this study, we attempted to analyze the trends in global warming and evolution of matrix protein 2 family from influenza A virus, because this protein is a target of anti-flu drug, and its mutation would have significant effect on the resistance to anti-flu drugs. The evolution of matrix protein 2 of influenza A virus from 1959 to 2008 was defined using the unpredictable portion of amino-acid pair predictability. Then the trend in this evolution was compared with the trend in the global temperature, the temperature in north and south hemispheres, and the temperature in influenza A virus sampling site, and species carrying influenza A virus. The results showed the similar trends in global warming and in evolution of M2 proteins although we could not correlate them at this stage of study. The study suggested the potential impact of global warming on the evolution of proteins from influenza A virus.

Active-site protein dynamics and solvent accessibility in native Achromobacter cycloclastes copper nitrite reductase.

PubMed

Sen, Kakali; Horrell, Sam; Kekilli, Demet; Yong, Chin W; Keal, Thomas W; Atakisi, Hakan; Moreau, David W; Thorne, Robert E; Hough, Michael A; Strange, Richard W

2017-07-01

Microbial nitrite reductases are denitrifying enzymes that are a major component of the global nitrogen cycle. Multiple structures measured from one crystal (MSOX data) of copper nitrite reductase at 240 K, together with molecular-dynamics simulations, have revealed protein dynamics at the type 2 copper site that are significant for its catalytic properties and for the entry and exit of solvent or ligands to and from the active site. Molecular-dynamics simulations were performed using different protonation states of the key catalytic residues (Asp CAT and His CAT ) involved in the nitrite-reduction mechanism of this enzyme. Taken together, the crystal structures and simulations show that the Asp CAT protonation state strongly influences the active-site solvent accessibility, while the dynamics of the active-site 'capping residue' (Ile CAT ), a determinant of ligand binding, are influenced both by temperature and by the protonation state of Asp CAT . A previously unobserved conformation of Ile CAT is seen in the elevated temperature series compared with 100 K structures. DFT calculations also show that the loss of a bound water ligand at the active site during the MSOX series is consistent with reduction of the type 2 Cu atom.

Effects of long-term nutrient additions on Arctic tundra, stream, and lake ecosystems: beyond NPP.

PubMed

Gough, Laura; Bettez, Neil D; Slavik, Karie A; Bowden, William B; Giblin, Anne E; Kling, George W; Laundre, James A; Shaver, Gaius R

2016-11-01

Primary producers form the base of food webs but also affect other ecosystem characteristics, such as habitat structure, light availability, and microclimate. Here, we examine changes caused by 5-30+ years of nutrient addition and resulting increases in net primary productivity (NPP) in tundra, streams, and lakes in northern Alaska. The Arctic provides an important opportunity to examine how ecosystems characterized by low diversity and low productivity respond to release from nutrient limitation. We review how responses of algae and plants affect light availability, perennial biotic structures available for consumers, oxygen levels, and temperature. Sometimes, responses were similar across all three ecosystems; e.g., increased NPP significantly reduced light to the substrate following fertilization. Perennial biotic structures increased in tundra and streams but not in lakes, and provided important new habitat niches for consumers as well as other producers. Oxygen and temperature responses also differed. Life history traits (e.g., longevity) of the primary producers along with the fate of detritus drove the responses and recovery. As global change persists and nutrients become more available in the Arctic and elsewhere, incorporating these factors as response variables will enable better prediction of ecosystem changes and feedbacks in this biome and others.

Mesocosms of aquatic bacterial communities from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico): a tool to test bacterial community response to environmental stress.

PubMed

Pajares, Silvia; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Travisano, Michael; Eguiarte, Luis E; Souza, Valeria

2012-08-01

Microbial communities are responsible for important ecosystem processes, and their activities are regulated by environmental factors such as temperature and solar ultraviolet radiation. Here we investigate changes in aquatic microbial community structure, diversity, and evenness in response to changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with both microbial mat communities and plankton from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico). Clone libraries (16S rRNA) were obtained from water samples at the beginning and at the end of the experiment (40 days). Phylogenetic analysis indicated substantial changes in aquatic community composition and structure in response to temperature and UV radiation. Extreme treatments with elevation in temperature or UV radiation reduced diversity in relation to the Control treatments, causing a reduction in richness and increase in dominance, with a proliferation of a few resistant operational taxonomic units. Each phylum was affected differentially by the new conditions, which translates in a differential modification of ecosystem functioning. This suggests that the impact of environmental stress, at least at short term, will reshape the aquatic bacterial communities of this unique ecosystem. This work also demonstrates the possibility of designing manageable synthetic microbial community ecosystems where controlled environmental variables can be manipulated. Therefore, microbial model systems offer a complementary approach to field and laboratory studies of global research problems associated with the environment.

Global constitutionalism, applied to global health governance: uncovering legitimacy deficits and suggesting remedies.

PubMed

Ooms, Gorik; Hammonds, Rachel

2016-12-03

Global constitutionalism is a way of looking at the world, at global rules and how they are made, as if there was a global constitution, empowering global institutions to act as a global government, setting rules which bind all states and people. This essay employs global constitutionalism to examine how and why global health governance, as currently structured, has struggled to advance the right to health, a fundamental human rights obligation enshrined in the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. It first examines the core structure of the global health governance architecture, and its evolution since the Second World War. Second, it identifies the main constitutionalist principles that are relevant for a global constitutionalism assessment of the core structure of the global health governance architecture. Finally, it applies these constitutionalist principles to assess the core structure of the global health governance architecture. Leading global health institutions are structurally skewed to preserve high incomes countries' disproportionate influence on transnational rule-making authority, and tend to prioritise infectious disease control over the comprehensive realisation of the right to health. A Framework Convention on Global Health could create a classic division of powers in global health governance, with WHO as the law-making power in global health governance, a global fund for health as the executive power, and the International Court of Justice as the judiciary power.

Quantitative assessment of the relationship between biomarker content and biomass in marine phytoplankton in responses to temperature and nutrient supply ratio changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Y.; Chen, X.; Bi, R.; Zhang, L. H.; Li, L.; Zhao, M.

2016-12-01

Alkenones and sterols are useful biomarkers to construct past productivity and community structure changes in aquatic environments. Until now, the quantitative relationship between biomarker content and biomass in marine phytoplankton remains understudied, which hinders the quantitative reconstruction of ocean changes. In this study, we carried out laboratory culture experiments to determine the quantitative relationship between biomarker content and biomass under three temperatures (15°, 20° and 25°) and three N:P supply ratios (N:P=10:1, 24:1 and 63:1 mol mol-1) for three common phytoplankton groups, diatoms (Phaeodactylum tricornutum Bohlin, Skeletonema costatum, Chaetoceros muelleri), dinoflagellates (Karenia mikimotoi, Prorocentrum donghaiense, Prorocentrum minimum), and coccolithophores (Emiliania huxleyi). Alkenones were only detected in E. huxleyiand dinosterol was only detected in dinoflagellates, confirming that they are the biomarkers for these two groups of phytoplankton, respectively. Brassicasterol was detected in all three groups of phytoplankton, but its content was higher in diatoms, suggesting that it is still a useful biomarker for diatoms. Cell-normalized alkenone content (pg/cell) increases with increasing growth temperature by up to 30%; while the effect of nutrients on alkenone content is minimum. On the other hand, cell-normalized dinosterol content is not temperature dependent, but it is strongly affected by nutrient ratio changes. The effects of temperature and nutrients on cell-normalized brassicasterol content are phytoplankton dependent. For diatoms, the temperature effect is minimum while the nutrient effect is significant but also varies with temperatures. Our results have strong implications for understanding how different phytoplankton respond to global changes, and for more quantitative reconstruction of past productivity and community structure changes using these biomarkers.

Understanding the mechanical properties of DNA origami tiles and controlling the kinetics of their folding and unfolding reconfiguration.

PubMed

Chen, Haorong; Weng, Te-Wei; Riccitelli, Molly M; Cui, Yi; Irudayaraj, Joseph; Choi, Jong Hyun

2014-05-14

DNA origami represents a class of highly programmable macromolecules that can go through conformational changes in response to external signals. Here we show that a two-dimensional origami rectangle can be effectively folded into a short, cylindrical tube by connecting the two opposite edges through the hybridization of linker strands and that this process can be efficiently reversed via toehold-mediated strand displacement. The reconfiguration kinetics was experimentally studied as a function of incubation temperature, initial origami concentration, missing staples, and origami geometry. A kinetic model was developed by introducing the j factor to describe the reaction rates in the cyclization process. We found that the cyclization efficiency (j factor) increases sharply with temperature and depends strongly on the structural flexibility and geometry. A simple mechanical model was used to correlate the observed cyclization efficiency with origami structure details. The mechanical analysis suggests two sources of the energy barrier for DNA origami folding: overcoming global twisting and bending the structure into a circular conformation. It also provides the first semiquantitative estimation of the rigidity of DNA interhelix crossovers, an essential element in structural DNA nanotechnology. This work demonstrates efficient DNA origami reconfiguration, advances our understanding of the dynamics and mechanical properties of self-assembled DNA structures, and should be valuable to the field of DNA nanotechnology.

Temperature Dependence of IP3-Mediated Local and Global Ca2+ Signals

PubMed Central

Dickinson, George D.; Parker, Ian

2013-01-01

We examined the effect of temperature (12–40°C) on local and global Ca2+ signals mediated by inositol trisphosphate receptor/channels (IP3R) in human neuroblastoma (SH-SY5Y) cells. The amplitudes and spatial spread of local signals arising from single IP3R (blips) and clusters of IP3R (puffs) showed little temperature dependence, whereas their kinetics (durations and latencies) were markedly accelerated by increasing temperature. In contrast, the amplitude of global Ca2+ waves increased appreciably at lower temperatures, probably as a result of the longer duration of IP3R channel opening. Several parameters, including puff and blip durations, puff latency and frequency, and frequency of repetitive Ca2+ waves, showed a biphasic temperature dependence on Arrhenius plots. In all cases the transition temperature occurred at ∼25°C, possibly reflecting a phase transition in the lipids of the endoplasmic reticulum membrane. Although the IP3-evoked Ca2+ signals were qualitatively similar at 25°C and 36°C, one should consider the temperature sensitivity of IP3-mediated signal amplitudes when extrapolating from room temperature to physiological temperature. Conversely, further cooling may be advantageous to improve the optical resolution of channel gating kinetics. PMID:23442860

Spread in the magnitude of climate model interdecadal global temperature variability traced to disagreements over high-latitude oceans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Su, Hui

2016-12-01

Unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature can obscure or exaggerate global warming on interdecadal time scales; thus, understanding both the magnitude and generating mechanisms of such variability is of critical importance for both attribution studies as well as decadal climate prediction. Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (climate models) simulate a wide range of magnitudes of unforced interdecadal variability in global mean surface air temperature (UITglobal), hampering efforts to quantify the influence of UITglobal on contemporary global temperature trends. Recently, a preliminary consensus has emerged that unforced interdecadal variability in local surface temperatures (UITlocal) over the tropical Pacific Ocean is particularly influential on UITglobal. Therefore, a reasonable hypothesis might be that the large spread in the magnitude of UITglobal across climate models can be explained by the spread in the magnitude of simulated tropical Pacific UITlocal. Here we show that this hypothesis is mostly false. Instead, the spread in the magnitude of UITglobal is linked much more strongly to the spread in the magnitude of UITlocal over high-latitude regions characterized by significant variability in oceanic convection, sea ice concentration, and energy flux at both the surface and the top of the atmosphere. Thus, efforts to constrain the climate model produced range of UITglobal magnitude would be best served by focusing on the simulation of air-sea interaction at high latitudes.

Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

PubMed

Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

2017-07-12

Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

A review of the global relationship among freshwater fish, autotrophic activity, and regional climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Deines, Andrew M.; Bunnell, David B.; Rogers, Mark W.; Beard, T. Douglas; Taylor, William W.

2015-01-01

The relationship between autotrophic activity and freshwater fish populations is an important consideration for ecologists describing trophic structure in aquatic communities, fisheries managers tasked with increasing sustainable fisheries development, and fish farmers seeking to maximize production. Previous studies of the empirical relationships of autotrophic activity and freshwater fish yield have found positive relationships but were limited by small sample sizes, small geographic scopes, and the inability to compare patterns among many types of measurement techniques. Individual studies and reviews have also lacked consistent consideration of regional climate factors which may inform relationships between fisheries and autotrophic activity. We compiled data from over 700 freshwater systems worldwide and used meta-analysis and linear models to develop a comprehensive global synthesis between multiple metrics of autotrophic activity, fisheries, and climate indicators. Our results demonstrate that multiple metrics of fish (i.e., catch per unit effort, yield, and production) increase with autotrophic activity across a variety of fisheries. At the global scale additional variation in this positive relationship can be ascribed to regional climate differences (i.e., temperature and precipitation) across systems. Our results provide a method and proof-of-concept for assessing inland fisheries production at the global scale, where current estimates are highly uncertain, and may therefore inform the continued sustainable use of global inland fishery resources.

Modification and optimization of the united-residue (UNRES) potential-energy function for canonical simulations. I. Temperature dependence of the effective energy function and tests of the optimization method with single training proteins

PubMed Central

Liwo, Adam; Khalili, Mey; Czaplewski, Cezary; Kalinowski, Sebastian; Ołdziej, Stanisław; Wachucik, Katarzyna; Scheraga, Harold A.

2011-01-01

We report the modification and parameterization of the united-residue (UNRES) force field for energy-based protein-structure prediction and protein-folding simulations. We tested the approach on three training proteins separately: 1E0L (β), 1GAB (α), and 1E0G (α + β). Heretofore, the UNRES force field had been designed and parameterized to locate native-like structures of proteins as global minima of their effective potential-energy surfaces, which largely neglected the conformational entropy because decoys composed of only lowest-energy conformations were used to optimize the force field. Recently, we developed a mesoscopic dynamics procedure for UNRES, and applied it with success to simulate protein folding pathways. How ever, the force field turned out to be largely biased towards α-helical structures in canonical simulations because the conformational entropy had been neglected in the parameterization. We applied the hierarchical optimization method developed in our earlier work to optimize the force field, in which the conformational space of a training protein is divided into levels each corresponding to a certain degree of native-likeness. The levels are ordered according to increasing native-likeness; level 0 corresponds to structures with no native-like elements and the highest level corresponds to the fully native-like structures. The aim of optimization is to achieve the order of the free energies of levels, decreasing as their native-likeness increases. The procedure is iterative, and decoys of the training protein(s) generated with the energy-function parameters of the preceding iteration are used to optimize the force field in a current iteration. We applied the multiplexing replica exchange molecular dynamics (MREMD) method, recently implemented in UNRES, to generate decoys; with this modification, conformational entropy is taken into account. Moreover, we optimized the free-energy gaps between levels at temperatures corresponding to a predominance of folded or unfolded structures, as well as to structures at the putative folding-transition temperature, changing the sign of the gaps at the transition temperature. This enabled us to obtain force fields characterized by a single peak in the heat capacity at the transition temperature. Furthermore, we introduced temperature dependence to the UNRES force field; this is consistent with the fact that it is a free-energy and not a potential-energy function. PMID:17201450

Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

PubMed Central

Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

2009-01-01

Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652