Wetter subtropics in a warmer world: Contrasting past and future hydrological cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burls, Natalie J.; Fedorov, Alexey V.

2017-12-01

During the warm Miocene and Pliocene Epochs, vast subtropical regions had enough precipitation to support rich vegetation and fauna. Only with global cooling and the onset of glacial cycles some 3 Mya, toward the end of the Pliocene, did the broad patterns of arid and semiarid subtropical regions become fully developed. However, current projections of future global warming caused by CO2 rise generally suggest the intensification of dry conditions over these subtropical regions, rather than the return to a wetter state. What makes future projections different from these past warm climates? Here, we investigate this question by comparing a typical quadrupling-of-CO2 experiment with a simulation driven by sea-surface temperatures closely resembling available reconstructions for the early Pliocene. Based on these two experiments and a suite of other perturbed climate simulations, we argue that this puzzle is explained by weaker atmospheric circulation in response to the different ocean surface temperature patterns of the Pliocene, specifically reduced meridional and zonal temperature gradients. Thus, our results highlight that accurately predicting the response of the hydrological cycle to global warming requires predicting not only how global mean temperature responds to elevated CO2 forcing (climate sensitivity) but also accurately quantifying how meridional sea-surface temperature patterns will change (structural climate sensitivity).

An extreme climatic event alters marine ecosystem structure in a global biodiversity hotspot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wernberg, Thomas; Smale, Dan A.; Tuya, Fernando; Thomsen, Mads S.; Langlois, Timothy J.; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Bennett, Scott; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

2013-01-01

Extreme climatic events, such as heat waves, are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude as a consequence of global warming but their ecological effects are poorly understood, particularly in marine ecosystems. In early 2011, the marine ecosystems along the west coast of Australia--a global hotspot of biodiversity and endemism--experienced the highest-magnitude warming event on record. Sea temperatures soared to unprecedented levels and warming anomalies of 2-4°C persisted for more than ten weeks along >2,000km of coastline. We show that biodiversity patterns of temperate seaweeds, sessile invertebrates and demersal fish were significantly different after the warming event, which led to a reduction in the abundance of habitat-forming seaweeds and a subsequent shift in community structure towards a depauperate state and a tropicalization of fish communities. We conclude that extreme climatic events are key drivers of biodiversity patterns and that the frequency and intensity of such episodes have major implications for predictive models of species distribution and ecosystem structure, which are largely based on gradual warming trends.

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-10-31

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth’s energy budget

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. We present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. Here, we find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth’s energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback betweenmore » the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. Our results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and o er a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.« less

Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Klein, Stephen A.

2016-12-01

Feedbacks of clouds on climate change strongly influence the magnitude of global warming. Cloud feedbacks, in turn, depend on the spatial patterns of surface warming, which vary on decadal timescales. Therefore, the magnitude of the decadal cloud feedback could deviate from the long-term cloud feedback. Here we present climate model simulations to show that the global mean cloud feedback in response to decadal temperature fluctuations varies dramatically due to time variations in the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature. We find that cloud anomalies associated with these patterns significantly modify the Earth's energy budget. Specifically, the decadal cloud feedback between the 1980s and 2000s is substantially more negative than the long-term cloud feedback. This is a result of cooling in tropical regions where air descends, relative to warming in tropical ascent regions, which strengthens low-level atmospheric stability. Under these conditions, low-level cloud cover and its reflection of solar radiation increase, despite an increase in global mean surface temperature. These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern-induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low.

Past and future warming of a deep European lake (Lake Lugano): What are the climatic drivers?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lepori, Fabio; Roberts, James J.

2015-01-01

We used four decades (1972–2013) of temperature data from Lake Lugano, Switzerland and Italy, to address the hypotheses that: [i] the lake has been warming; [ii] part of the warming reflects global trends and is independent from climatic oscillations and [iii] the lake will continue to warm until the end of the 21st century. During the time spanned by our data, the surface waters of the lake (0–5 m) warmed at rates of 0.2–0.9 °C per decade, depending on season. The temperature of the deep waters (50-m bottom) displayed a rising trend in a meromictic basin of the lake and a sawtooth pattern in the other basin, which is holomictic. Long-term variation in surfacewater temperature correlated to global warming and multidecadal variation in two climatic oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the East Atlantic Pattern (EA).However, we did not detect an influence of the EA on the lake's temperature (as separate from the effect of global warming). Moreover, the effect of the AMO, estimated to a maximum of +1 °C, was not sufficient to explain the observed temperature increase (+2–3 °C in summer). Based on regional climate projections, we predicted that the lake will continue to warm at least until the end of the 21st century. Our results strongly suggest that the warming of Lake Lugano is tied to globalclimate change. To sustain current ecosystem conditions in Lake Lugano, we suggest that manage- ment plans that curtail eutrophication and (or) mitigation of global warming be pursued.

Why Popper can't resolve the debate over global warming: Problems with the uses of philosophy of science in the media and public framing of the science of global warming.

PubMed

Mercer, David

2018-02-01

A notable feature in the public framing of debates involving the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming are appeals to uncritical 'positivist' images of the ideal scientific method. Versions of Sir Karl Popper's philosophy of falsification appear most frequently, featuring in many Web sites and broader media. This use of pop philosophy of science forms part of strategies used by critics, mainly from conservative political backgrounds, to manufacture doubt, by setting unrealistic standards for sound science, in the veracity of science of Anthropogenic Global Warming. It will be shown, nevertheless, that prominent supporters of Anthropogenic Global Warming science also often use similar references to Popper to support their claims. It will also be suggested that this pattern reflects longer traditions of the use of Popperian philosophy of science in controversial settings, particularly in the United States, where appeals to the authority of science to legitimize policy have been most common. It will be concluded that studies of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming debate would benefit from taking greater interest in questions raised by un-reflexive and politically expedient public understanding(s) of the philosophy of science of both critics and supporters of the science of Anthropogenic Global Warming.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus

PubMed Central

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-01-01

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes. PMID:26568024

The coastal ocean response to the global warming acceleration and hiatus.

PubMed

Liao, Enhui; Lu, Wenfang; Yan, Xiao-Hai; Jiang, Yuwu; Kidwell, Autumn

2015-11-16

Coastlines are fundamental to humans for habitation, commerce, and natural resources. Many coastal ecosystem disasters, caused by extreme sea surface temperature (SST), were reported when the global climate shifted from global warming to global surface warming hiatus after 1998. The task of understanding the coastal SST variations within the global context is an urgent matter. Our study on the global coastal SST from 1982 to 2013 revealed a significant cooling trend in the low and mid latitudes (31.4% of the global coastlines) after 1998, while 17.9% of the global coastlines changed from a cooling trend to a warming trend concurrently. The trend reversals in the Northern Pacific and Atlantic coincided with the phase shift of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation, respectively. These coastal SST changes are larger than the changes of the global mean and open ocean, resulting in a fast increase of extremely hot/cold days, and thus extremely hot/cold events. Meanwhile, a continuous increase of SST was detected for a considerable portion of coastlines (46.7%) with a strengthened warming along the coastlines in the high northern latitudes. This suggests the warming still continued and strengthened in some regions after 1998, but with a weaker pattern in the low and mid latitudes.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests.

PubMed

Kwon, Tae-Sung; Li, Fengqing; Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species' distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr-1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities.

On the influence of simulated SST warming on rainfall projections in the Indo-Pacific domain: an AGCM study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Huqiang; Zhao, Y.; Moise, A.; Ye, H.; Colman, R.; Roff, G.; Zhao, M.

2018-02-01

Significant uncertainty exists in regional climate change projections, particularly for rainfall and other hydro-climate variables. In this study, we conduct a series of Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with different future sea surface temperature (SST) warming simulated by a range of coupled climate models. They allow us to assess the extent to which uncertainty from current coupled climate model rainfall projections can be attributed to their simulated SST warming. Nine CMIP5 model-simulated global SST warming anomalies have been super-imposed onto the current SSTs simulated by the Australian climate model ACCESS1.3. The ACCESS1.3 SST-forced experiments closely reproduce rainfall means and interannual variations as in its own fully coupled experiments. Although different global SST warming intensities explain well the inter-model difference in global mean precipitation changes, at regional scales the SST influence vary significantly. SST warming explains about 20-25% of the patterns of precipitation changes in each of the four/five models in its rainfall projections over the oceans in the Indo-Pacific domain, but there are also a couple of models in which different SST warming explains little of their precipitation pattern changes. The influence is weaker again for rainfall changes over land. Roughly similar levels of contribution can be attributed to different atmospheric responses to SST warming in these models. The weak SST influence in our study could be due to the experimental setup applied: superimposing different SST warming anomalies onto the same SSTs simulated for current climate by ACCESS1.3 rather than directly using model-simulated past and future SSTs. Similar modelling and analysis from other modelling groups with more carefully designed experiments are needed to tease out uncertainties caused by different SST warming patterns, different SST mean biases and different model physical/dynamical responses to the same underlying SST forcing.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth’s recent energy budget

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Patrick T.; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-01

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth’s top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

Greater future global warming inferred from Earth's recent energy budget.

PubMed

Brown, Patrick T; Caldeira, Ken

2017-12-06

Climate models provide the principal means of projecting global warming over the remainder of the twenty-first century but modelled estimates of warming vary by a factor of approximately two even under the same radiative forcing scenarios. Across-model relationships between currently observable attributes of the climate system and the simulated magnitude of future warming have the potential to inform projections. Here we show that robust across-model relationships exist between the global spatial patterns of several fundamental attributes of Earth's top-of-atmosphere energy budget and the magnitude of projected global warming. When we constrain the model projections with observations, we obtain greater means and narrower ranges of future global warming across the major radiative forcing scenarios, in general. In particular, we find that the observationally informed warming projection for the end of the twenty-first century for the steepest radiative forcing scenario is about 15 per cent warmer (+0.5 degrees Celsius) with a reduction of about a third in the two-standard-deviation spread (-1.2 degrees Celsius) relative to the raw model projections reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our results suggest that achieving any given global temperature stabilization target will require steeper greenhouse gas emissions reductions than previously calculated.

The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Greatbatch, Richard J.

2018-03-01

Beside its global effects, climate change is manifested in many regionally pronounced features mainly resulting from changes in the oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic SST on shaping the winter-time response to global warming. Our results are based on a long-term climate projection with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to investigate the influence of North Atlantic sea surface temperature pattern changes on shaping the atmospheric climate change signal. In sensitivity experiments with the model's atmospheric component we decompose the response into components controlled by the local SST structure and components controlled by global/remote changes. MPI-ESM simulates a global warming response in SST similar to other climate models: there is a warming minimum—or "warming hole"—in the subpolar North Atlantic, and the sharp SST gradients associated with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current shift northward by a few a degrees. Over the warming hole, global warming causes a relatively weak increase in rainfall. Beyond this, our experiments show more localized effects, likely resulting from future SST gradient changes in the North Atlantic. This includes a significant precipitation decrease to the south of the Gulf Stream despite increased underlying SSTs. Since this region is characterised by a strong band of precipitation in the current climate, this is contrary to the usual case that wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier in a warmer climate. A moisture budget analysis identifies a complex interplay of various processes in the region of modified SST gradients: reduced surface winds cause a decrease in evaporation; and thermodynamic, modified atmospheric eddy transports, and coastal processes cause a change in the moisture convergence. The changes in the the North Atlantic storm track are mainly controlled by the non-regional changes in the forcing. The impact of the local SST pattern changes on regions outside the North Atlantic is small in our setup.

Understanding the effect of an excessive cold tongue bias on projecting the tropical Pacific SST warming pattern in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping; Lian, Tao; Tan, Hongjian

2018-05-01

An excessive cold tongue is a common bias among current climate models, and considered an important source of bias in projections of tropical Pacific climate change under global warming. Specifically, the excessive cold tongue bias is closely related to the tropical Pacific SST warming (TPSW) pattern. In this study, we reveal that two processes are the critical mechanisms by which the excessive cold tongue bias influences the projection of the TPSW pattern, based on 32 models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP5). On the one hand, by assuming that the shortwave (SW) radiation to SST feedback is linearly correlated to the cold tongue SST, the excessive cold tongue bias can induce an overly weak negative SW-SST feedback in the central Pacific, which can lead to a positive SST warming bias in the central to western Pacific (around 150°E-140°W). Moreover, the overly weak local atmospheric dynamics response to SST is a key process of the overly weak SW-SST feedback, compared with the cloud response to atmospheric dynamics and the SW radiation response to cloud. On the other hand, the overly strong ocean zonal overturning circulation associated with the excessive cold tongue bias results in an overestimation of the ocean dynamical thermostat effect, with enhanced ocean stratification under global warming, leading to a negative SST warming bias in the central and eastern Pacific (around 170°W-120°W). These two processes jointly form a positive SST warming bias in the western Pacific, contributing to a La Niña-like warming bias. Therefore, we suggest a more realistic climatological cold tongue SST is needed for a more reliable projection of the TPSW pattern.

Modelling Vulnerability and Range Shifts in Ant Communities Responding to Future Global Warming in Temperate Forests

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Soo; Chun, Jung Hwa; Park, Young-Seuk

2016-01-01

Global warming is likely leading to species’ distributional shifts, resulting in changes in local community compositions and diversity patterns. In this study, we applied species distribution models to evaluate the potential impacts of temperature increase on ant communities in Korean temperate forests, by testing hypotheses that 1) the risk of extinction of forest ant species would increase over time, and 2) the changes in species distribution ranges could drive upward movements of ant communities and further alter patterns of species richness. We sampled ant communities at 335 evenly distributed sites across South Korea and modelled the future distribution range for each species using generalized additive models. To account for spatial autocorrelation, autocovariate regressions were conducted prior to generalized additive models. Among 29 common ant species, 12 species were estimated to shrink their suitable geographic areas, whereas five species would benefit from future global warming. Species richness was highest at low altitudes in the current period, and it was projected to be highest at the mid-altitudes in the 2080s, resulting in an upward movement of 4.9 m yr−1. This altered the altitudinal pattern of species richness from a monotonic-decrease curve (common in temperate regions) to a bell-shaped curve (common in tropical regions). Overall, ant communities in temperate forests are vulnerable to the on-going global warming and their altitudinal movements are similar to other faunal communities. PMID:27504632

Variability in modeled cloud feedback tied to differences in the climatological spatial pattern of clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siler, Nicholas; Po-Chedley, Stephen; Bretherton, Christopher S.

2018-02-01

Despite the increasing sophistication of climate models, the amount of surface warming expected from a doubling of atmospheric CO_2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity) remains stubbornly uncertain, in part because of differences in how models simulate the change in global albedo due to clouds (the shortwave cloud feedback). Here, model differences in the shortwave cloud feedback are found to be closely related to the spatial pattern of the cloud contribution to albedo (α) in simulations of the current climate: high-feedback models exhibit lower (higher) α in regions of warm (cool) sea-surface temperatures, and therefore predict a larger reduction in global-mean α as temperatures rise and warm regions expand. The spatial pattern of α is found to be strongly predictive (r=0.84) of a model's global cloud feedback, with satellite observations indicating a most-likely value of 0.58± 0.31 Wm^{-2} K^{-1} (90% confidence). This estimate is higher than the model-average cloud feedback of 0.43 Wm^{-2} K^{-1}, with half the range of uncertainty. The observational constraint on climate sensitivity is weaker but still significant, suggesting a likely value of 3.68 ± 1.30 K (90% confidence), which also favors the upper range of model estimates. These results suggest that uncertainty in model estimates of the global cloud feedback may be substantially reduced by ensuring a realistic distribution of clouds between regions of warm and cool SSTs in simulations of the current climate.

Evaluating the accuracy of climate change pattern emulation for low warming targets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tebaldi, Claudia; Knutti, Reto

2018-05-01

Global climate policy is increasingly debating the value of very low warming targets, yet not many experiments conducted with global climate models in their fully coupled versions are currently available to help inform studies of the corresponding impacts. This raises the question whether a map of warming or precipitation change in a world 1.5 °C warmer than preindustrial can be emulated from existing simulations that reach higher warming targets, or whether entirely new simulations are required. Here we show that also for this type of low warming in strong mitigation scenarios, climate change signals are quite linear as a function of global temperature. Therefore, emulation techniques amounting to linear rescaling on the basis of global temperature change ratios (like simple pattern scaling) provide a viable way forward. The errors introduced are small relative to the spread in the forced response to a given scenario that we can assess from a multi-model ensemble. They are also small relative to the noise introduced into the estimates of the forced response by internal variability within a single model, which we can assess from either control simulations or initial condition ensembles. Challenges arise when scaling inadvertently reduces the inter-model spread or suppresses the internal variability, both important sources of uncertainty for impact assessment, or when the scenarios have very different characteristics in the composition of the forcings. Taking advantage of an available suite of coupled model simulations under low-warming and intermediate scenarios, we evaluate the accuracy of these emulation techniques and show that they are unlikely to represent a substantial contribution to the total uncertainty.

Global-scale modes of surface temperature variability on interannual to century timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1994-01-01

Using 100 years of global temperature anomaly data, we have performed a singluar value decomposition of temperature variations in narrow frequency bands to isolate coherent spatio-temporal modes of global climate variability. Statistical significance is determined from confidence limits obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. Secular variance is dominated by a globally coherent trend; with nearly all grid points warming in phase at varying amplitude. A smaller, but significant, share of the secular variance corresponds to a pattern dominated by warming and subsequent cooling in the high latitude North Atlantic with a roughly centennial timescale. Spatial patterns associated with significant peaks in variance within a broad period range from 2.8 to 5.7 years exhibit characteristic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. A recent transition to a regime of higher ENSO frequency is suggested by our analysis. An interdecadal mode in the 15-to-18 years period and a mode centered at 7-to-8 years period both exhibit predominantly a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) temperature pattern. A potentially significant decadal mode centered on 11-to-12 years period also exhibits an NAO temperature pattern and may be modulated by the century-scale North Atlantic variability.

Global warming induced hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, Seyni; Klein, Cornelia; Giannini, Alessandra; Sarr, Benoit; Worou, Omonlola N.; Belko, Nouhoun; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstman, Harald

2016-10-01

The small rainfall recovery observed over the Sahel, concomitant with a regional climate warming, conceals some drought features that exacerbate food security. The new rainfall features include false start and early cessation of rainy seasons, increased frequency of intense daily rainfall, increasing number of hot nights and warm days and a decreasing trend in diurnal temperature range. Here, we explain these mixed dry/wet seasonal rainfall features which are called hybrid rainy seasons by delving into observed data consensus on the reduction in rainfall amount, its spatial coverage, timing and erratic distribution of events, and other atmospheric variables crucial in agro-climatic monitoring and seasonal forecasting. Further composite investigations of seasonal droughts, oceans warming and the regional atmospheric circulation nexus reveal that the low-to-mid-level atmospheric winds pattern, often stationary relative to either strong or neutral El-Niño-Southern-Oscillations drought patterns, associates to basin warmings in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to trigger hybrid rainy seasons in the Sahel. More challenging to rain-fed farming systems, our results suggest that these new rainfall conditions will most likely be sustained by global warming, reshaping thereby our understanding of food insecurity in this region.

Patterns of Indian Ocean Sea-Level Change in a Warming Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-08-01

distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 20110415461 14 ABSTRACT Global sea level has risen during the past decades as a result of thermal...expansion of the warming ocean and freshwater addition from melting continental icel However, sea-level rise is not globally uniforml, 2, 3, 4, 5...7320 Division Head Ruth H. Preller, 7300 Security. Code 1226 Office of Counsel,Code 1008.3 ADOR/Director NCST E. R. Franchi , 7000 Public

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species' physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread.

Impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C on precipitation patterns in China by regional climate model (COSMO-CLM)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Hemin; Wang, Anqian; Zhai, Jianqing; Huang, Jinlong; Wang, Yanjun; Wen, Shanshan; Zeng, Xiaofan; Su, Buda

2018-05-01

Regional precipitation patterns may change in a warmer climate, thereby increasing flood and drought risks. In this paper, annual, annual maximum, intense, heavy, moderate, light, and trace precipitation are employed as indicators to assess changes in precipitation patterns under two scenarios in which the global mean temperature increases by 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C relative to pre-industrial levels using the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The results show that annual precipitation in China will be approximately 2.5% higher under 1.5 °C warming relative to the present-day baseline (1980-2009), although it will decrease by approximately 4.0% under an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. This trend is spatially consistent for regions with annual precipitation of 400-800 mm, which has experienced a drying trend during the past half century; thus, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C may mitigate these drying conditions. The annual maximum precipitation continues to increase from present day levels to the 2.0 °C warming scenario. Relative to the baseline period, the frequency of trace and light precipitation days exhibits a negative trend, while that of moderate, heavy, and intense precipitation days has a positive trend under the 1.5 °C warming scenario. For the 2.0 °C warming world, the frequency of days is projected to decrease for all precipitation categories, although the intensity of intense precipitation increases. Spatially, a decrease in the number of precipitation days is expected to continue in central and northern China, where a drying trend has persisted over the past half century. Southeastern China, which already suffers greatly from flooding, is expected to face more heavy and intense precipitation with an additional 0.5 °C increase in global mean temperature. Meanwhile, the intensity of intense precipitation is expected to increase in northern China, and the contribution of light and moderate precipitation to the annual precipitation is expected to decrease in southeastern China. Therefore, flood risk in northern China and drought risk in southern China should draw more attention for a global air temperature increase from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C.

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

2016-04-28

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Identifying sensitive ranges in global warming precipitation change dependence on convective parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernstein, Diana N.; Neelin, J. David

A branch-run perturbed-physics ensemble in the Community Earth System Model estimates impacts of parameters in the deep convection scheme on current hydroclimate and on end-of-century precipitation change projections under global warming. Regional precipitation change patterns prove highly sensitive to these parameters, especially in the tropics with local changes exceeding 3mm/d, comparable to the magnitude of the predicted change and to differences in global warming predictions among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models. This sensitivity is distributed nonlinearly across the feasible parameter range, notably in the low-entrainment range of the parameter for turbulent entrainment in the deep convection scheme.more » This suggests that a useful target for parameter sensitivity studies is to identify such disproportionately sensitive dangerous ranges. Here, the low-entrainment range is used to illustrate the reduction in global warming regional precipitation sensitivity that could occur if this dangerous range can be excluded based on evidence from current climate.« less

Delayed warming hiatus over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Wenling; Hou, Shugui; Hu, Yongyun; Wu, Shuangye

2017-03-01

A reduction in the warming rate for the global surface temperature since the late 1990s has attracted much attention and caused a great deal of controversy. During the same time period, however, most previous studies have reported enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). In this study we further examined the temperature trend of the TP and surrounding areas based on the homogenized temperature records for the period 1980-2014, we found that for the TP regions lower than 4000 m the warming rate has started to slow down since the late 1990s, a similar pattern consistent with the whole China and the global temperature trend. However, for the TP regions higher than 4000 m, this reduction in warming rate did not occur until the mid-2000s. This delayed warming hiatus could be related to changes in regional radiative, energy, and land surface processes in recent years.

Present-day constraint for tropical Pacific precipitation changes due to global warming in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Kug, Jong-Seong

2016-11-01

The sensitivity of the precipitation responses to greenhouse warming can depend on the present-day climate. In this study, a robust linkage between the present-day precipitation climatology and precipitation change owing to global warming is examined in inter-model space. A model with drier climatology in the present-day simulation tends to simulate an increase in climatological precipitation owing to global warming. Moreover, the horizontal gradient of the present-day precipitation climatology plays an important role in determining the precipitation changes. On the basis of these robust relationships, future precipitation changes are calibrated by removing the impact of the present-day precipitation bias in the climate models. To validate this result, the perfect model approach is adapted, which treats a particular model's precipitation change as an observed change. The results suggest that the precipitation change pattern can be generally improved by applying the present statistical approach.

Climate. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration.

PubMed

Chen, Xianyao; Tung, Ka-Kit

2014-08-22

A vacillating global heat sink at intermediate ocean depths is associated with different climate regimes of surface warming under anthropogenic forcing: The latter part of the 20th century saw rapid global warming as more heat stayed near the surface. In the 21st century, surface warming slowed as more heat moved into deeper oceans. In situ and reanalyzed data are used to trace the pathways of ocean heat uptake. In addition to the shallow La Niña-like patterns in the Pacific that were the previous focus, we found that the slowdown is mainly caused by heat transported to deeper layers in the Atlantic and the Southern oceans, initiated by a recurrent salinity anomaly in the subpolar North Atlantic. Cooling periods associated with the latter deeper heat-sequestration mechanism historically lasted 20 to 35 years. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Interannual Variations in Arctic Winter Temperature: The Role of Global Scale Teleconnections

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-01

also advect warm air northward and eastward between Iceland and Scandinavia . Figure 7 shows the LTM patterns of global Z200 and shows the normal...with an extension of this warm anomaly into the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic (i.e., Baffin Bay- Scandinavia ). Weak positive anomalies in...positive anomalies over northern Siberia and Scandinavia . We speculate that these areas of positive and negative anomalies in Z850, and implied WAA, may

Recent Global Warming As Depicted by AIRS, GISSTEMP, and MERRA-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Susskind, J.; Iredell, L. F.; Lee, J. N.

2017-12-01

We observed anomalously warm global mean surface temperatures since 2015. The year 2016 represents the warmest annual mean surface skin and surface air temperatures in the AIRS observational period, September 2002 through August 2017. Additionally, AIRS monthly mean surface skin temperature, from January 2016 through September 2016, and November 2016, were the warmest observed for each month of the year. Continuing this trend, the AIRS global surface temperatures of 2017 February and April show the second greatest positive anomalies from average. This recent warming is particularly significant over the Arctic where the snow and sea ice melt is closely tied to the spring and summer surface temperatures. In this paper, we show the global distribution of surface temperature anomalies as observed by AIRS over the period September 2002 through August 2017 and compare them with those from the GISSTEMP and MERRA-2 surface temperatures. The spatial patterns of warm and cold anomalies for a given month show reasonably good agreement in all three data set. AIRS anomalies, which do not have the benefit of in-situ measurements, are in almost perfect agreement with those of MERRA-2, which does use in-situ surface measurements. GISSTEMP anomaly patterns for the most part look similar to those of AIRS and MERRA-2, but are more spread out spatially, and consequently are also weaker.

Proper accounting for time increases crop-based biofuels' greenhouse gas deficit versus petroleum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Hare, M.; Plevin, R. J.; Martin, J. I.; Jones, A. D.; Kendall, A.; Hopson, E.

2009-04-01

The global warming intensities of crop-based biofuels and fossil fuels differ not only in amount but also in their discharge patterns over time. Early discharges, for example, from market-mediated land use change, will have created more global warming by any time in the future than later discharges, owing to the slow decay of atmospheric CO2. A spreadsheet model of this process, BTIME, captures this important time pattern effect using the Bern CO2 decay model to allow fuels to be compared for policy decisions on the basis of their real warming effects with a variety of user-supplied parameter values. The model also allows economic discounting of climate effects extended far into the future. Compared to approaches that simply sum greenhouse gas emissions over time, recognizing the physics of atmospheric CO2 decay significantly increases the deficit relative to fossil fuel of any biofuel causing land use change.

[Responses of plant community structure and species composition to warming and N addition in an alpine meadow, northern Tibetan Plateau, China].

PubMed

Zong, Ning; Chai, Xi; Shi, Pei Li; Jiang, Jing; Niu, Ben; Zhang, Xian Zhou; He, Yong Tao

2016-12-01

Global climate warming and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition, as controversial global environmental issues, may distinctly affect the functions and processes of terrestrial ecosystems. It has been reported that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has been experiencing significant warming in recent decades, especially in winter. Previous studies have mainly focused on the effects of warming all the year round; however, few studies have tested the effects of winter warming. To investigate the effects of winter warming and N addition on plant community structure and species composition of alpine meadow, long-term N addition and simulated warming experiment was conducted in alpine meadow from 2010 in Damxung, northern Tibet. The experiment consisted of three warming patterns: Year-round warming (YW), winter warming (WW) and control (NW), crossed respectively with five N gradients: 0, 10, 20, 40, 80 kg N·hm -2 ·a -1 . From 2012 to 2014, both warming and N addition significantly affected the total coverage of plant community. Specifically, YW significantly decreased the total coverage of plant community. Without N addition, WW remarkably reduced the vegetation coverage. However, with N addition, the total vegetation coverage gradually increased with the increase of N level. Warming and N addition had different effects on plants from different functional groups. Warming significantly reduced the plant coverage of grasses and sedges, while N addition significantly enhanced the plant coverage of grasses. Regression analyses showed that the total coverage of plant community was positively related to soil water content in vigorous growth stages, indicating that the decrease in soil water content resulted from warming during dry seasons might be the main reason for the decline of total community coverage. As soil moisture in semi-arid alpine meadow is mainly regulated by rainfalls, our results indicated that changes in spatial and temporal patterns of rainfalls under the future climate change scenarios would dramatically influence the vegetation coverage and species composition. Additionally, the effects of increasing atmospheric N deposition on vegetation community might also depend on the change of rainfall patterns.

A Simple Climate Model Program for High School Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dommenget, D.

2012-04-01

The future climate change projections of the IPCC AR4 are based on GCM simulations, which give a distinct global warming pattern, with an arctic winter amplification, an equilibrium land sea contrast and an inter-hemispheric warming gradient. While these simulations are the most important tool of the IPCC predictions, the conceptual understanding of these predicted structures of climate change are very difficult to reach if only based on these highly complex GCM simulations and they are not accessible for ordinary people. In this study presented here we will introduce a very simple gridded globally resolved energy balance model based on strongly simplified physical processes, which is capable of simulating the main characteristics of global warming. The model shall give a bridge between the 1-dimensional energy balance models and the fully coupled 4-dimensional complex GCMs. It runs on standard PC computers computing globally resolved climate simulation with 2yrs per second or 100,000yrs per day. The program can compute typical global warming scenarios in a few minutes on a standard PC. The computer code is only 730 line long with very simple formulations that high school students should be able to understand. The simple model's climate sensitivity and the spatial structure of the warming pattern is within the uncertainties of the IPCC AR4 models simulations. It is capable of simulating the arctic winter amplification, the equilibrium land sea contrast and the inter-hemispheric warming gradient with good agreement to the IPCC AR4 models in amplitude and structure. The program can be used to do sensitivity studies in which students can change something (e.g. reduce the solar radiation, take away the clouds or make snow black) and see how it effects the climate or the climate response to changes in greenhouse gases. This program is available for every one and could be the basis for high school education. Partners for a high school project are wanted!

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

Sources of Intermodel Spread in the Lapse Rate and Water Vapor Feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Po-Chedley, Stephen; Armour, Kyle C.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; ...

2018-03-23

Sources of intermodel differences in the global lapse rate (LR) and water vapor (WV) feedbacks are assessed using CO 2 forcing simulations from 28 general circulation models. Tropical surface warming leads to significant warming and moistening in the tropical and extratropical upper troposphere, signifying a nonlocal, tropical influence on extratropical radiation and feedbacks. Model spread in the locally defined LR and WV feedbacks is pronounced in the Southern Ocean because of large-scale ocean upwelling, which reduces surface warming and decouples the surface from the tropospheric response. The magnitude of local extratropical feedbacks across models and over time is well characterizedmore » using the ratio of tropical to extratropical surface warming. It is shown that model differences in locally defined LR and WV feedbacks, particularly over the southern extratropics, drive model variability in the global feedbacks. The cross-model correlation between the global LR and WV feedbacks therefore does not arise from their covariation in the tropics, but rather from the pattern of warming exerting a common control on extratropical feedback responses. Because local feedbacks over the Southern Hemisphere are an important contributor to the global feedback, the partitioning of surface warming between the tropics and the southern extratropics is a key determinant of the spread in the global LR and WV feedbacks. It is also shown that model Antarctic sea ice climatology influences sea ice area changes and southern extratropical surface warming. In conclusion, as a result, model discrepancies in climatological Antarctic sea ice area have a significant impact on the intermodel spread of the global LR and WV feedbacks.« less

The Role of Atmospheric Heating over the South China Sea and Western Pacific Regions in Modulating Asian Summer Climate under the Global Warming Background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, B.

2015-12-01

Global warming is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface. However, the responses of monsoon precipitation to global warming show very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and surrounding regions during boreal summer. To understand the possible dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, the changes in atmospheric latent heating and their possible influences on global climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical sensitivity simulations. Results indicate that summertime latent heating has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, lower-tropospheric convergence, and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS-western Pacific and South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia and leading to a warm and dry climate. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The results highlight the important role of latent heating in adjusting the changes in sea surface temperature through atmospheric dynamics.

Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Wang, Bin; Cane, Mark A; Yim, So-Young; Lee, June-Yi

2013-01-31

As a result of global warming, precipitation is likely to increase in high latitudes and the tropics and to decrease in already dry subtropical regions. The absolute magnitude and regional details of such changes, however, remain intensely debated. As is well known from El Niño studies, sea-surface-temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean can strongly influence global rainfall. Palaeoproxy evidence indicates that the difference between the warm west Pacific and the colder east Pacific increased in past periods when the Earth warmed as a result of increased solar radiation. In contrast, in most model projections of future greenhouse warming this gradient weakens. It has not been clear how to reconcile these two findings. Here we show in climate model simulations that the tropical Pacific sea-surface-temperature gradient increases when the warming is due to increased solar radiation and decreases when it is due to increased greenhouse-gas forcing. For the same global surface temperature increase the latter pattern produces less rainfall, notably over tropical land, which explains why in the model the late twentieth century is warmer than in the Medieval Warm Period (around AD 1000-1250) but precipitation is less. This difference is consistent with the global tropospheric energy budget, which requires a balance between the latent heat released in precipitation and radiative cooling. The tropospheric cooling is less for increased greenhouse gases, which add radiative absorbers to the troposphere, than for increased solar heating, which is concentrated at the Earth's surface. Thus warming due to increased greenhouse gases produces a climate signature different from that of warming due to solar radiation changes.

Relation of Phanerozoic stable isotope excursions to climate, bacterial metabolism, and major extinctions

PubMed Central

Stanley, Steven M.

2010-01-01

Conspicuous global stable carbon isotope excursions that are recorded in marine sedimentary rocks of Phanerozoic age and were associated with major extinctions have generally paralleled global stable oxygen isotope excursions. All of these phenomena are therefore likely to share a common origin through global climate change. Exceptional patterns for carbon isotope excursions resulted from massive carbon burial during warm intervals of widespread marine anoxic conditions. The many carbon isotope excursions that parallel those for oxygen isotopes can to a large degree be accounted for by the Q10 pattern of respiration for bacteria: As temperature changed along continental margins, where ∼90% of marine carbon burial occurs today, rates of remineralization of isotopically light carbon must have changed exponentially. This would have reduced organic carbon burial during global warming and increased it during global cooling. Also contributing to the δ13C excursions have been release and uptake of methane by clathrates, the positive correlation between temperature and degree of fractionation of carbon isotopes by phytoplankton at temperatures below ∼15°, and increased phytoplankton productivity during “icehouse” conditions. The Q10 pattern for bacteria and climate-related changes in clathrate volume represent positive feedbacks for climate change. PMID:21041682

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming.

PubMed

Dillon, Michael E; Wang, George; Huey, Raymond B

2010-10-07

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.

Partisan differences in the relationship between newspaper coverage and concern over global warming.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaoquan; Rolfe-Redding, Justin; Kotcher, John E

2016-07-01

The effects of news media on public opinion about global warming have been a topic of much interest in both academic and popular discourse. Empirical evidence in this regard, however, is still limited and somewhat mixed. This study used data from the 2006 General Social Survey in combination with a content analysis of newspaper coverage of the same time period to examine the relationship between general news climate and public concern about global warming. Results showed a pattern of political polarization, with increased coverage associated with growing divergence between Democrats and Republicans. Further analysis also showed evidence of reactivity in partisan response to coverage from different news outlets. These findings point to a particular form of politically motivated, biased processing of news information. © The Author(s) 2014.

ENSO Weather and Coral Bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Hamish; Theobald, Alison

2017-10-01

The most devastating mass coral bleaching has occurred during El Niño events, with bleaching reported to be a direct result of increased sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, El Niño itself does not cause SSTs to rise in all regions that experience bleaching. Nor is the upper ocean warming trend of 0.11°C per decade since 1971, attributed to global warming, sufficient alone to exceed the thermal tolerance of corals. Here we show that weather patterns during El Niño that result in reduced cloud cover, higher than average air temperatures and higher than average atmospheric pressures, play a crucial role in determining the extent and location of coral bleaching on the world's largest coral reef system, the World Heritage Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Accordingly, synoptic-scale weather patterns and local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and not large-scale SST warming due to El Niño alone and/or global warming are often the cause of coral bleaching on the GBR.

Projections of Seasonal Patterns in Temperature- Related Deaths for Manhattan, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Tiantian; Horton, Radley M.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2013-01-01

Global average temperatures have been rising for the past half-century, and the warming trend has accelerated in recent decades. Further warming is expected over the next few decades, with significant regional variations. These warming trends will probably result in more frequent, intense and persistent periods of hot temperatures in summer, and generally higher temperatures in winter. Daily death counts in cities increase markedly when temperatures reach levels that are very high relative to what is normal in a given location. Relatively cold temperatures also seem to carry risk. Rising temperatures may result in more heat-related mortality but may also reduce cold-related mortality, and the net impact on annual mortality remains uncertain. Here we use 16 downscaled global climate models and two emissions scenarios to estimate present and future seasonal patterns in temperature-related mortality in Manhattan, New York. All 32 projections yielded warm-season increases and cold-season decreases in temperature-related mortality, with positive net annual temperature-related deaths in all cases. Monthly analyses showed that the largest percentage increases may occur in May and September. These results suggest that, over a range of models and scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, increases in heat-related mortality could outweigh reductions in cold-related mortality, with shifting seasonal patterns.

Fifty Years of Water Cycle Change expressed in Ocean Salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Durack, P. J.; Wijffels, S.

2010-12-01

Using over 1.6 million profiles of salinity, potential temperature and density from historical archives and Argo, we derive the global field of linear change for ocean state properties over the period 1950-2008, taking care to minimise aliasing associated with seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation modes. We find large, robust and spatially coherent multi-decadal linear trends in ocean surface salinities. Increases are found in evaporation-dominated regions and freshening in precipitation-dominated regions. The spatial patterns of surface change strongly resemble the climatological mean surface salinity field, consistent with an amplification of the global water cycle. A robust amplification of the mean salinity pattern of 8% (to 200m depth) is found globally and 5-9% is found in each of the 3 key ocean basins. 20th century runs from the CMIP3 model suite support the relationship between amplified patterns of freshwater flux driving an amplified pattern of ocean surface salinity only in models that warm substantially. Models with volcanic aerosols show a diminished warming response and a corresponding weak response in ocean surface salinity change, which implies dampened changes to the global water cycle. The warming response represented in realistic (when compared to observations) 20th century simulations appear quite similar in their broad zonal patterns to those of the projected 21st century simulations, these projected runs being strongly forced by greenhouse gases. This pattern amplification is mostly absent from 20th century simulations which include volcanic forcing. While we confirm that global mean precipitation only weakly change with surface warming (2-3% K-1), the pattern amplification rate in both the freshwater flux and ocean salinity fields indicate larger responses. Our new observed salinity estimates suggest a change of between 8-16% K-1, close to, or greater than, the theoretical response described by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The underestimation of change patterns by the CMIP3 model suite is well documented in recent literature describing changes to the atmospheric and terrestrial arms of the global water cycle. These new observational ocean results add emphasis to the conclusion that the rate of observed changes in the 20th century are larger than CMIP3 models, and simplified physical theories predict. A) The 50-year linear surface salinity trend (pss/50-years). Contours every 0.25 pss are plotted in white. B) Ocean-atmosphere freshwater flux (m3 yr-1) averaged over 1980-1993 (Josey et al., 1998). Contours every 1 m3 yr-1 are in white. On both panels, the 1975 surface mean salinity is contoured black (contour interval 0.5 pss for thin lines, 1 for thick lines).

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

The relationship between interannual and long-term cloud feedbacks

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.; ...

2015-12-11

The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Chen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Dessler, Andrew E.

The analyses of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations suggest that climate models with more positive cloud feedback in response to interannual climate fluctuations also have more positive cloud feedback in response to long-term global warming. Ensemble mean vertical profiles of cloud change in response to interannual and long-term surface warming are similar, and the ensemble mean cloud feedback is positive on both timescales. However, the average long-term cloud feedback is smaller than the interannual cloud feedback, likely due to differences in surface warming pattern on the two timescales. Low cloud cover (LCC) change in response to interannual andmore » long-term global surface warming is found to be well correlated across models and explains over half of the covariance between interannual and long-term cloud feedback. In conclusion, the intermodel correlation of LCC across timescales likely results from model-specific sensitivities of LCC to sea surface warming.« less

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection

PubMed Central

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-01-01

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection. PMID:26838053

Global Warming Attenuates the Tropical Atlantic-Pacific Teleconnection.

PubMed

Jia, Fan; Wu, Lixin; Gan, Bolan; Cai, Wenju

2016-02-03

Changes in global sea surface temperature (SST) since the end of last century display a pattern of widespread warming intercepted by cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific and western coasts of the American continent. Studies have suggested that the cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific may be partly induced by warming in the North Atlantic. However, it remains unknown how stable this inter-tropical teleconnection will be under global warming. Here we show that the inter-tropical teleconnection from the tropical Atlantic to Pacific weakens substantially as the CO2 concentration increases. This reduced impact is related to the El Niño-like warming of the tropical Pacific mean state, which leads to limited seasonal migration of the Pacific inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and weakened ocean heat transport. A fast decay of the tropical Atlantic SST anomalies in a warmer climate also contributes to the weakened teleconnection. Our study suggests that as greenhouse warming continues, the trend in the tropical Pacific as well as the development of ENSO will be less frequently interrupted by the Atlantic because of this attenuation. The weakened teleconnection is also supported by CMIP5 models, although only a few of these models can capture this inter-tropical teleconnection.

Asymmetric responses to simulated global warming by populations of Colobanthus quitensis along a latitudinal gradient

PubMed Central

Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Hereme, Rasme

2017-01-01

The increase in temperature as consequence of the recent global warming has been reported to generate new ice-free areas in the Antarctic continent, facilitating the colonization and spread of plant populations. Consequently, Antarctic vascular plants have been observed extending their southern distribution. But as the environmental conditions toward southern localities become progressively more departed from the species’ physiological optimum, the ecophysiological responses and survival to the expected global warming could be reduced. However, if processes of local adaptation are the main cause of the observed southern expansion, those populations could appear constrained to respond positively to the expected global warming. Using individuals from the southern tip of South America, the South Shetland Islands and the Antarctic Peninsula, we assess with a long term experiment (three years) under controlled conditions if the responsiveness of Colobanthus quitensis populations to the expected global warming, is related with their different foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms along the latitudinal gradient. In addition, we tested if the release of the stress condition by the global warming in these cold environments increases the ecophysiological performance. For this, we describe the latitudinal pattern of net photosynthetic capacity, biomass accumulation, and number of flowers under current and future temperatures respective to each site of origin after three growing seasons. Overall, was found a clinal trend was found in the foliar traits and photoprotective mechanisms in the evaluated C. quitensis populations. On the other hand, an asymmetric response to warming was observed for southern populations in all ecophysiological traits evaluated, suggesting that low temperature is limiting the performance of C. quitensis populations. Our results suggest that under a global warming scenario, plant populations that inhabiting cold zones at high latitudes could increase in their ecophysiological performance, enhancing the size of populations or their spread. PMID:28948096

Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.

2017-12-01

Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are consistently in good agreement with values of ICS inferred from global energy budget constraints. This suggests that the current generation of coupled climate models are not overly sensitive. However, since global energy budget observations do not constrain ECS, it is less certain whether model ECS values are realistic.

Global warming and South Indian monsoon rainfall-lessons from the Mid-Miocene.

PubMed

Reuter, Markus; Kern, Andrea K; Harzhauser, Mathias; Kroh, Andreas; Piller, Werner E

2013-04-01

Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3-4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall.

Impacts of 1, 1.5, and 2 Degree Warming on Arctic Terrestrial Snow and Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Derksen, C.; Mudryk, L.; Howell, S.; Flato, G. M.; Fyfe, J. C.; Gillett, N. P.; Sigmond, M.; Kushner, P. J.; Dawson, J.; Zwiers, F. W.; Lemmen, D.; Duguay, C. R.; Zhang, X.; Fletcher, C. G.; Dery, S. J.

2017-12-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the global temperature goal of "holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels." In this study, we utilize multiple gridded snow and sea ice products (satellite retrievals; assimilation systems; physical models driven by reanalyses) and ensembles of climate model simulations to determine the impacts of observed warming, and project the relative impacts of the UNFCC future warming targets on Arctic seasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice cover. Observed changes during the satellite era represent the response to approximately 1°C of global warming. Consistent with other studies, analysis of the observational record (1970's to present) identifies changes including a shorter snow cover duration (due to later snow onset and earlier snow melt), significant reductions in spring snow cover and summer sea ice extent, and the loss of a large proportion of multi-year sea ice. The spatial patterns of observed snow and sea ice loss are coherent across adjacent terrestrial/marine regions. There are strong pattern correlations between snow and temperature trends, with weaker association between sea ice and temperature due to the additional influence of dynamical effects such wind-driven redistribution of sea ice. Climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP-5) multi-model ensemble, large initial condition ensembles of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) , and warming stabilization simulations from CESM were used to identify changes in snow and ice under further increases to 1.5°C and 2°C warming. The model projections indicate these levels of warming will be reached over the coming 2-4 decades. Warming to 1.5°C results in an increase in the number of melting days over snow and sea ice (and resultant increases in snow-free and ice-free duration), which are similar in magnitude to the change from pre-industrial conditions to present day. Continued warming to 2°C further intensifies the cryospheric response consistent with amplified Arctic warming relative to the global average trend.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S.-Y. Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-10-01

Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming.

PubMed

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J

2015-10-21

Since the winter of 2013-2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)--in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns.

Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming

PubMed Central

Yoon, Jin-Ho; Wang, S-Y Simon; Gillies, Robert R.; Kravitz, Ben; Hipps, Lawrence; Rasch, Philip J.

2015-01-01

Since the winter of 2013–2014, California has experienced its most severe drought in recorded history, causing statewide water stress, severe economic loss and an extraordinary increase in wildfires. Identifying the effects of global warming on regional water cycle extremes, such as the ongoing drought in California, remains a challenge. Here we analyse large-ensemble and multi-model simulations that project the future of water cycle extremes in California as well as to understand those associations that pertain to changing climate oscillations under global warming. Both intense drought and excessive flooding are projected to increase by at least 50% towards the end of the twenty-first century; this projected increase in water cycle extremes is associated with a strengthened relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—in particular, extreme El Niño and La Niña events that modulate California's climate not only through its warm and cold phases but also its precursor patterns. PMID:26487088

The role stratification on Indian ocean mixing under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praveen, V.; Valsala, V.; Ravindran, A. M.

2017-12-01

The impact of changes in Indian ocean stratification on mixing under global warming is examined. Previous studies on global warming and associated weakening of winds reported to increase the stratification of the world ocean leading to a reduction in mixing, increased acidity, reduced oxygen and there by a reduction in productivity. However this processes is not uniform and are also modulated by changes in wind pattern of the future. Our study evaluate the role of stratification and surface fluxes on mixing focusing northern Indian ocean. A dynamical downscaling study using Regional ocean Modelling system (ROMS) forced with stratification and surface fluxes from selected CMIP5 models are presented. Results from an extensive set of historical and Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (rcp8.5) scenario simulations are used to quantify the distinctive role of stratification on mixing.

Atlantic Induced Pan-tropical Climate Variability in the Upper-ocean and Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Xie, S. P.; Gille, S. T.; Yoo, C.

2016-02-01

During the last three decades, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) exhibited dipole-like trends, with warming over the tropical Atlantic and Indo-Western Pacific but cooling over the Eastern Pacific. The Eastern Pacific cooling has recently been identified as a driver of the global warming hiatus. Previous studies revealed atmospheric bridges between the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean, which could potentially contribute to this zonally asymmetric SST pattern. However, the mechanisms and the interactions between these teleconnections remain unclear. To investigate these questions, we performed a `pacemaker' simulation by restoring the tropical Atlantic SST changes in a state-of-the-art climate model - the CESM1. Results show that the Atlantic plays a key role in initiating the tropical-wide teleconnections, and the Atlantic-induced anomalies contribute 55%-75% of the total tropical SST and circulation changes during the satellite era. A hierarchy of oceanic and atmospheric models are then used to investigate the physical mechanisms of these teleconnections: the Atlantic warming enhances atmospheric deep convection, drives easterly wind anomalies over the Indo-Western Pacific through the Kelvin wave, and westerly anomalies over the eastern Pacific as Rossby waves, in line with Gill's solution (Fig1a). These wind changes induce an Indo-Western Pacific warming via the wind-evaporation-SST effect, and this warming intensifies the La Niña-type response in the upper Pacific Ocean by enhancing the easterly trade winds and through the Bjerknes ocean-dynamical processes (Fig1b). The teleconnection finally develops into a tropical-wide SST dipole pattern with an enhanced trade wind and Walker circulation, similar as the observed changes during the satellite era. This mechanism reveals that the tropical ocean basins are more tightly connected than previously thought, and the Atlantic plays a key role in the tropical climate pattern formation and further the global warming hiatus. The tropical Atlantic warming is likely due to radiative forcing and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Our study suggests that the AMOC may force the decadal variability of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, and thus contributes to the decadal predictability of the global climate.

Evidence linking rapid Arctic warming to mid-latitude weather patterns.

PubMed

Francis, Jennifer; Skific, Natasa

2015-07-13

The effects of rapid Arctic warming and ice loss on weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere is a topic of active research, lively scientific debate and high societal impact. The emergence of Arctic amplification--the enhanced sensitivity of high-latitude temperature to global warming--in only the last 10-20 years presents a challenge to identifying statistically robust atmospheric responses using observations. Several recent studies have proposed and demonstrated new mechanisms by which the changing Arctic may be affecting weather patterns in mid-latitudes, and these linkages differ fundamentally from tropics/jet-stream interactions through the transfer of wave energy. In this study, new metrics and evidence are presented that suggest disproportionate Arctic warming-and resulting weakening of the poleward temperature gradient-is causing the Northern Hemisphere circulation to assume a more meridional character (i.e. wavier), although not uniformly in space or by season, and that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently. Further analysis based on self-organizing maps supports this finding. These changes in circulation are expected to lead to persistent weather patterns that are known to cause extreme weather events. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated, therefore, the continued amplification of Arctic warming should favour an increased occurrence of extreme events caused by prolonged weather conditions.

Impact of a permanent El Niño (El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole in warm Pliocene climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shukla, Sonali P.; Chandler, Mark A.; Jonas, Jeff; Sohl, Linda E.; Mankoff, Ken; Dowsett, Harry J.

2009-01-01

 Pliocene sea surface temperature data, as well as terrestrial precipitation and temperature proxies, indicate warmer than modern conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and imply permanent El Niño–like conditions with impacts similar to those of the 1997/1998 El Niño event. Here we use a general circulation model to examine the global-scale effects that result from imposing warm tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in both modern and Pliocene simulations. Observed SSTs from the 1997/1998 El Niño event were used for the anomalies and incorporate Pacific warming as well as a prominent Indian Ocean Dipole event. Both the permanent El Niño (also called El Padre) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are necessary to reproduce temperature and precipitation patterns consistent with the global distribution of Pliocene proxy data. These patterns may result from the poleward propagation of planetary waves from the strong convection centers associated with the El Niño and IOD.

The Role of Forcing and Internal Dynamics in explaining the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goossee, Hugues; Crespin, Elisabeth; Dubinkina, Svetlana; Loutre, Marie-France; Mann, Michael E.; Renssen, Hans; Shindell, Drew

2012-01-01

Proxy reconstructions suggest that peak global temperature during the past warm interval known as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, roughly 950-1250 AD) has been exceeded only during the most recent decades. To better understand the origin of this warm period, we use model simulations constrained by data assimilation establishing the spatial pattern of temperature changes that is most consistent with forcing estimates, model physics and the empirical information contained in paleoclimate proxy records. These numerical experiments demonstrate that the reconstructed spatial temperature pattern of the MCA can be explained by a simple thermodynamical response of the climate system to relatively weak changes in radiative forcing combined with a modification of the atmospheric circulation, displaying some similarities with the positive phase of the so-called Arctic Oscillation, and with northward shifts in the position of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio currents. The mechanisms underlying the MCA are thus quite different from anthropogenic mechanisms responsible for modern global warming.

Comparison of AIRS Version-6 OLR Climatologies and Anomaly Time Series with Those of CERES and MERRA-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Susskind, Joel; Lee, Jae; Iredell, Lena

2016-01-01

RCs of AIRS and MERRA-2 500 mb specific humidity agree very well in terms of spatial patterns, but MERRA-2 ARCs are larger in magnitude and show a spurious moistening globally and over Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 fractional cloud cover ARCs agree less well with each other. MERRA-2 shows a spurious global mean increase in cloud cover that is not found in AIRS, including a large spurious cloud increase in Central Africa. AIRS and MERRA-2 ARCs of surface skin and surface air temperatures are all similar to each other in patterns. AIRS shows a small global warming over the 13 year period, while MERRA-2 shows a small global cooling. This difference results primarily from spurious MERRA-2 temperature trends at high latitudes and over Central Africa. These differences all contribute to the spurious negative global MERRA-2 OLR trend. AIRS Version-6 confirms that 2015 is the warmest year on record and that the Earth's surface is continuing to warm.

Terrestrial carbon cycle affected by non-uniform climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Jianyang; Chen, Jiquan; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Luo, Yiqi; Wan, Shiqiang

2014-03-01

Feedbacks between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate change could affect many ecosystem functions and services, such as food production, carbon sequestration and climate regulation. The rate of climate warming varies on diurnal and seasonal timescales. A synthesis of global air temperature data reveals a greater rate of warming in winter than in summer in northern mid and high latitudes, and the inverse pattern in some tropical regions. The data also reveal a decline in the diurnal temperature range over 51% of the global land area and an increase over only 13%, because night-time temperatures in most locations have risen faster than daytime temperatures. Analyses of satellite data, model simulations and in situ observations suggest that the impact of seasonal warming varies between regions. For example, spring warming has largely stimulated ecosystem productivity at latitudes between 30° and 90° N, but suppressed productivity in other regions. Contrasting impacts of day- and night-time warming on plant carbon gain and loss are apparent in many regions. We argue that ascertaining the effects of non-uniform climate warming on terrestrial ecosystems is a key challenge in carbon cycle research.

Accelerated warming and emergent trends in fisheries biomass yields of the world's large marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Sherman, Kenneth; Belkin, Igor M; Friedland, Kevin D; O'Reilly, John; Hyde, Kimberly

2009-06-01

Information on the effects of global climate change on trends in global fisheries biomass yields has been limited in spatial and temporal scale. Results are presented of a global study of the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) changes over the last 25 years on the fisheries yields of 63 large marine ecosystems (LMEs) that annually produce 80% of the world's marine fisheries catches. Warming trends were observed in 61 LMEs around the globe. In 18 of the LMEs, rates of SST warming were two to four times faster during the past 25 years than the globally averaged rates of SST warming reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007. Effects of warming on fisheries biomass yields were greatest in the fast-warming northern Northeast Atlantic LMEs, where increasing trends in fisheries biomass yields were related to zooplankton biomass increases. In contrast, fisheries biomass yields of LMEs in the fast-warming, more southerly reaches of the Northeast Atlantic were declining in response to decreases in zooplankton abundance. The LMEs around the margins of the Indian Ocean, where SSTs were among the world's slowest warming, revealed a consistent pattern of fisheries biomass increases during the past 25 years, driven principally by human need for food security from fisheries resources. As a precautionary approach toward more sustainable fisheries utilization, management measures to limit the total allowable catch through a cap-and-sustain approach are suggested for the developing nations recently fishing heavily on resources of the Agulhas Current, Somali Current, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal LMEs.

Ocean salinities reveal strong global water cycle intensification during 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Durack, Paul J; Wijffels, Susan E; Matear, Richard J

2012-04-27

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.

Transient regional climate change: analysis of the summer climate response in a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble experiment over the continental United States

PubMed Central

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Scherer, Martin

2013-01-01

Integrating the potential for climate change impacts into policy and planning decisions requires quantification of the emergence of sub-regional climate changes that could occur in response to transient changes in global radiative forcing. Here we report results from a high-resolution, century-scale, ensemble simulation of climate in the United States, forced by atmospheric constituent concentrations from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. We find that 21st century summer warming permanently emerges beyond the baseline decadal-scale variability prior to 2020 over most areas of the continental U.S. Permanent emergence beyond the baseline annual-scale variability shows much greater spatial heterogeneity, with emergence occurring prior to 2030 over areas of the southwestern U.S., but not prior to the end of the 21st century over much of the southcentral and southeastern U.S. The pattern of emergence of robust summer warming contrasts with the pattern of summer warming magnitude, which is greatest over the central U.S. and smallest over the western U.S. In addition to stronger warming, the central U.S. also exhibits stronger coupling of changes in surface air temperature, precipitation, and moisture and energy fluxes, along with changes in atmospheric circulation towards increased anticylonic anomalies in the mid-troposphere and a poleward shift in the mid-latitude jet aloft. However, as a fraction of the baseline variability, the transient warming over the central U.S. is smaller than the warming over the southwestern or northeastern U.S., delaying the emergence of the warming signal over the central U.S. Our comparisons with observations and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) ensemble of global climate model experiments suggest that near-term global warming is likely to cause robust sub-regional-scale warming over areas that exhibit relatively little baseline variability. In contrast, where there is greater variability in the baseline climate dynamics, there can be greater variability in the response to elevated greenhouse forcing, decreasing the robustness of the transient warming signal. PMID:24307747

Deflecting Disinformation about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreskes, N.

2006-12-01

A study by the Pew Center in the summer of 2006 showed that only 41 per cent of Americans have views consistent with the scientific facts about global warming. Nearly half of all Americans believe that there is "no solid" evidence of global warming, or that if warming is happening it can be attributed to natural variability. And an ABC/Time poll showed that two-thirds of Americans think that "there is a lot of disagreement among scientists" as to whether or not global warming is occurring. Scientists are apt to attribute such public misunderstandings to scientific illiteracy, and to think that the remedy is better communication. But public confusion over climate science is the result—at least in part--of organized campaigns designed to create confusion. The goal has been to create an impression of scientific disagreement, and thereby delay political action. This is a tactic that was previously employed in efforts to deny the reality of acid rain, the human role in ozone depletion, and the link between tobacco and cancer, in some cases by the same individuals who now deny the reality of global warming. In short, there is a pattern of which scientists need to be aware. Good faith efforts to explain the science are likely to fail in the face of bad-faith efforts to misrepresent it.

The interplay between knowledge, perceived efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change: a one-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Milfont, Taciano L

2012-06-01

If the long-term goal of limiting warming to less than 2°C is to be achieved, rapid and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are required. These reductions will demand political leadership and widespread public support for action on global warming and climate change. Public knowledge, level of concern, and perceived personal efficacy, in positively affecting these issues are key variables in understanding public support for mitigation action. Previous research has documented some contradictory associations between knowledge, personal efficacy, and concern about global warming and climate change, but these cross-sectional findings limit inferences about temporal stability and direction of influence. This study examines the relationships between these three variables over a one-year period and three waves with national data from New Zealand. Results showed a positive association between the variables, and the pattern of findings was stable and consistent across the three data points. More importantly, results indicate that concern mediates the influence of knowledge on personal efficacy. Knowing more about global warming and climate change increases overall concern about the risks of these issues, and this increased concern leads to greater perceived efficacy and responsibility to help solving them. Implications for risk communication are discussed. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Regional temperature and precipitation changes under high-end (≥4°C) global warming.

PubMed

Sanderson, M G; Hemming, D L; Betts, R A

2011-01-13

Climate models vary widely in their projections of both global mean temperature rise and regional climate changes, but are there any systematic differences in regional changes associated with different levels of global climate sensitivity? This paper examines model projections of climate change over the twenty-first century from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report which used the A2 scenario from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, assessing whether different regional responses can be seen in models categorized as 'high-end' (those projecting 4°C or more by the end of the twenty-first century relative to the preindustrial). It also identifies regions where the largest climate changes are projected under high-end warming. The mean spatial patterns of change, normalized against the global rate of warming, are generally similar in high-end and 'non-high-end' simulations. The exception is the higher latitudes, where land areas warm relatively faster in boreal summer in high-end models, but sea ice areas show varying differences in boreal winter. Many continental interiors warm approximately twice as fast as the global average, with this being particularly accentuated in boreal summer, and the winter-time Arctic Ocean temperatures rise more than three times faster than the global average. Large temperature increases and precipitation decreases are projected in some of the regions that currently experience water resource pressures, including Mediterranean fringe regions, indicating enhanced pressure on water resources in these areas.

Large potential reduction in economic damages under UN mitigation targets.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall; Davis, W Matthew; Diffenbaugh, Noah S

2018-05-01

International climate change agreements typically specify global warming thresholds as policy targets 1 , but the relative economic benefits of achieving these temperature targets remain poorly understood 2,3 . Uncertainties include the spatial pattern of temperature change, how global and regional economic output will respond to these changes in temperature, and the willingness of societies to trade present for future consumption. Here we combine historical evidence 4 with national-level climate 5 and socioeconomic 6 projections to quantify the economic damages associated with the United Nations (UN) targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming, and those associated with current UN national-level mitigation commitments (which together approach 3 °C warming 7 ). We find that by the end of this century, there is a more than 75% chance that limiting warming to 1.5 °C would reduce economic damages relative to 2 °C, and a more than 60% chance that the accumulated global benefits will exceed US$20 trillion under a 3% discount rate (2010 US dollars). We also estimate that 71% of countries-representing 90% of the global population-have a more than 75% chance of experiencing reduced economic damages at 1.5 °C, with poorer countries benefiting most. Our results could understate the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C if unprecedented extreme outcomes, such as large-scale sea level rise 8 , occur for warming of 2 °C but not for warming of 1.5 °C. Inclusion of other unquantified sources of uncertainty, such as uncertainty in secular growth rates beyond that contained in existing socioeconomic scenarios, could also result in less precise impact estimates. We find considerably greater reductions in global economic output beyond 2 °C. Relative to a world that did not warm beyond 2000-2010 levels, we project 15%-25% reductions in per capita output by 2100 for the 2.5-3 °C of global warming implied by current national commitments 7 , and reductions of more than 30% for 4 °C warming. Our results therefore suggest that achieving the 1.5 °C target is likely to reduce aggregate damages and lessen global inequality, and that failing to meet the 2 °C target is likely to increase economic damages substantially.

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Sung, Mi-Kyung; An, Soon-II; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Kug, Jong-Seong

2014-01-01

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Few multiyear precipitation-reduction experiments find a shift in the productivity-precipitation relationship

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precipitation is a key driver of ecosystem net primary productivity and carbon cycling. Global warming is altering precipitation patterns globally, and longer and more intense drought episodes are projected for many temperate and Mediterranean regions. The challenge of predicting the effects of alt...

Susceptibility to a metal under global warming is shaped by thermal adaptation along a latitudinal gradient.

PubMed

Dinh Van, Khuong; Janssens, Lizanne; Debecker, Sara; De Jonge, Maarten; Lambret, Philippe; Nilsson-Örtman, Viktor; Bervoets, Lieven; Stoks, Robby

2013-09-01

Global warming and contamination represent two major threats to biodiversity that have the potential to interact synergistically. There is the potential for gradual local thermal adaptation and dispersal to higher latitudes to mitigate the susceptibility of organisms to contaminants and global warming at high latitudes. Here, we applied a space-for-time substitution approach to study the thermal dependence of the susceptibility of Ischnura elegans damselfly larvae to zinc in a common garden warming experiment (20 and 24 °C) with replicated populations from three latitudes spanning >1500 km in Europe. We observed a striking latitude-specific effect of temperature on the zinc-induced mortality pattern; local thermal adaptation along the latitudinal gradient made Swedish, but not French, damselfly larvae more susceptible to zinc at 24 °C. Latitude- and temperature-specific differences in zinc susceptibility may be related to the amount of energy available to defend against and repair damage since Swedish larvae showed a much stronger zinc-induced reduction of food intake at 24 °C. The pattern of local thermal adaptation indicates that the predicted temperature increase of 4 °C by 2100 will strongly magnify the impact of a contaminant such as zinc at higher latitudes unless there is thermal evolution and/or migration of lower latitude genotypes. Our results underscore the critical importance of studying the susceptibility to contaminants under realistic warming scenarios taking into account local thermal adaptation across natural temperature gradients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global changes alter soil fungal communities and alter rates of organic matter decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, J.; Frey, S. D.

2016-12-01

Global changes - such as warming, more frequent and severe droughts, increasing atmospheric CO2, and increasing nitrogen (N) deposition rates - are altering ecosystem processes. The balance between soil carbon (C) accumulation and decomposition is determined in large part by the activity and biomass of detrital organisms, namely soil fungi, and yet their sensitivity to global changes remains unresolved. We present results from a meta-analysis of 200+ studies spanning manipulative and observational field experiments to quantify fungal responses to global change and expected consequences for ecosystem C dynamics. Warming altered the functional soil microbial community by reducing the ratio of fungi to bacteria (f:b) total fungal biomass. Additionally, warming reduced lignolytic enzyme activity generally by one-third. Simulated N deposition affected f:b differently than warming, but the effect on fungal biomass and activity was similar. The effect of N-enrichment on f:b was contingent upon ecosystem type; f:b increased in alpine meadows and heathlands but decreased in temperate forests following N-enrichment. Across ecosystems, fungal biomass marginally declined by 8% in N-enriched soils. In general, N-enrichment reduced fungal lignolytic enzyme activity, which could explain why soil C accumulates in some ecosystems following warming and N-enrichment. Several global change experiments have reported the surprising result that soil C builds up following increases in temperature and N deposition rates. While site-specific studies have examined the role of soil fungi in ecosystem responses to global change, we present the first meta-analysis documenting general patterns of global change impacts on soil fungal communities, biomass, and activity. In sum, we provide evidence that soil microbial community shifts and activity plays a large part in ecosystem responses to global changes, and have the potential to alter the magnitude of the C-climate feedback.

Spatial correlations of interdecadal variation in global surface temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Park, Jeffrey

1993-01-01

We have analyzed spatial correlation patterns of interdecadal global surface temperature variability from an empirical perspective. Using multitaper coherence estimates from 140-yr records, we find that correlations between hemispheres are significant at about 95 percent confidence for nonrandomness for most of the frequency band in the 0.06-0.24 cyc/yr range. Coherence estimates of pairs of 100-yr grid-point temperature data series near 5-yr period reveal teleconnection patterns consistent with known patterns of ENSO variability. Significant correlated variability is observed near 15 year period, with the dominant teleconnection pattern largely confined to the Northern Hemisphere. Peak-to-peak Delta-T is at about 0.5 deg, with simultaneous warming and cooling of discrete patches on the earth's surface. A global average of this pattern would largely cancel.

Effects of different warming patterns on the translocations of cadmium and copper in a soil-rice seedling system.

PubMed

Ge, Liqiang; Cang, Long; Liu, Hui; Zhou, Dongmei

2015-10-01

Heavy-metal-polluted rice poses potential threats to food security and has received great attention in recent years, while how elevated temperature affects the translocation of heavy metals in soil-rice system is unclear. In this study, potting experiments were conducted in plant growth chambers for 24 days to evaluate the effects of different warming patterns on cadmium (Cd) and copper (Cu) migrations in soil-rice seedling system. Rice seedlings were cultivated under four different day/night temperature patterns: 25/18 °C (CK), 25/23 °C (N5), 30/18 °C (D5), and 30/23 °C (DN5), respectively. Non-contaminated soil (CS), Cd/Cu lightly polluted soil (LS), and highly polluted soil (HS) were chosen for experiments. The results showed that different warming patterns decreased soil pH and elevated available soil Cd/Cu concentrations. The shoot and root biomass were increased by 39.0-320 and 28.6-348 %, respectively. Warming induced significant (p < 0.05) increase of Cd/Cu uptake and translocation in rice seedlings, especially for the Cd concentration in shoot. The Cd concentrations of shoot increased by 5-12 times and up to 8 times for LS and HS, respectively. Meanwhile, the Cd concentration of shoot increased with warming while that of root kept unchanged, indicating that warming promoted cadmium translocation from root to shoot (about -four to nine times of CK), while warming changed the Cu concentration of shoot similarly to that of root and had no significant effects on Cu translocations in rice seedlings. Our study may provide improved understanding for Cd/Cu fates in soil-rice system by warming and imply that heavy metals had the higher environmental risk under the future global warming.

Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Känel, Lukas; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Gruber, Nicolas

2017-08-01

A surface cooling pattern in the equatorial Pacific associated with a negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is the leading hypothesis to explain the smaller rate of global warming during 1998-2012, with these cooler than normal conditions thought to have accelerated the oceanic heat uptake. Here using a 30-member ensemble simulation of a global Earth system model, we show that in 10% of all simulated decades with a global cooling trend, the eastern equatorial Pacific actually warms. This implies that there is a 1 in 10 chance that decadal hiatus periods may occur without the equatorial Pacific being the dominant pacemaker. In addition, the global ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during hiatus decades implying a fundamentally different global climate feedback factor on decadal time scales than on centennial time scales and calling for caution inferring climate sensitivity from decadal-scale variability.

Climate Change: Life history adaptation by a global whitefly, Bemisia tabaci, with rising temperature and carbon dioxide

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Introduction: Climate change can have direct and indirect impacts on living organisms. A rise in ambient temperature and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations due to global warming may have assorted impacts on arthropods such as altered life cycles, altered reproductive patterns, and change...

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-05-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J.

2017-01-01

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25–48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Observed variations in U.S. frost timing linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.

PubMed

Strong, Courtenay; McCabe, Gregory J

2017-05-23

Several studies document lengthening of the frost-free season within the conterminous United States (U.S.) over the past century, and report trends in spring and fall frost timing that could stem from hemispheric warming. In the absence of warming, theory and case studies link anomalous frost timing to atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, recent efforts to relate a century of observed changes in U.S. frost timing to various atmospheric circulations yielded only modest correlations, leaving the relative importance of circulation and warming unclear. Here, we objectively partition the U.S. into four regions and uncover atmospheric circulations that account for 25-48% of spring and fall-frost timing. These circulations appear responsive to historical warming, and they consistently account for more frost timing variability than hemispheric or regional temperature indices. Reliable projections of future variations in growing season length depend on the fidelity of these circulation patterns in global climate models.

Changes in yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childers, Katelin

2015-04-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the political discussion about mitigation targets as well as for the inclusion of climate change impacts in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that generally only provide global mean temperature change as an indicator of climate change. While there is a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with global mean temperature change we provide an assessment of the extent to which impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of global mean temperature changes without accounting for the specific underlying emissions scenario. Based on multi-crop-model simulations of the four major cereal crops (maize, rice, soy, and wheat) on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree global grid generated within ISI-MIP, we show the average spatial patterns of projected crop yield changes at one half degree warming steps. We find that emissions scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of global warming. Furthermore, scenario dependence can be reduced by accounting for the direct effects of CO2 fertilization in each global climate model (GCM)/impact model combination through an inclusion of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration as a second predictor. The choice of GCM output used to force the crop model simulations accounts for a slightly larger portion of the total yield variance, but the greatest contributor to variance in both global and regional crop yields and at all levels of warming, is the inter-crop-model spread. The unique multi impact model ensemble available with ISI-MIP data also indicates that the overall variability of crop yields is projected to increase in conjunction with increasing global mean temperature. This result is consistent throughout the ensemble of impact models and across many world regions. Such a hike in yield volatility could have significant policy implications by affecting food prices and supplies.

The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deser, Clara; Guo, Ruixia; Lehner, Flavio

2017-08-01

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheff, J.; Frierson, D. M.

2013-12-01

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a supply-independent measure of the evaporative demand of a terrestrial climate, of basic importance in climatology, hydrology, and agriculture. Future increases in PET from greenhouse warming are often cited as key drivers of global trends toward drought and aridity. The present work computes recent and business-as-usual-future Penman-Monteith (i.e. physically-based) PET fields at 3-hourly resolution in 14 modern global climate models. The %-change in local annual-mean PET over the upcoming century is almost always positive, modally low double-digit in magnitude, usually increasing with latitude, yet quite divergent between models. These patterns are understood as follows. In every model, the global field of PET %-change is found to be dominated by the direct, positive effects of constant-relative-humidity warming (via increasing vapor pressure deficit and increasing Clausius-Clapeyron slope.) This direct-warming term very accurately scales as the PET-weighted (warm-season daytime) local warming, times 5-6% per degree (related to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation), times an analytic factor ranging from about 0.25 in warm climates to 0.75 in cold climates, plus a small correction. With warming of several degrees, this product is of low double-digit magnitude, and the strong temperature dependence gives the latitude dependence. Similarly, the inter-model spread in the amount of warming gives most of the spread in this term. Additional spread in the total change comes from strong disagreement on radiation, relative-humidity, and windspeed changes, which make smaller yet substantial contributions to the full PET %-change fields.

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curtis, Scott; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric

1999-01-01

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Precipitation response to the current ENSO variability in a warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonfils, C.; Santer, B. D.; Phillips, T. J.; Marvel, K.; Leung, L.

2013-12-01

The major triggers of past and recent droughts include large modes of variability, such as ENSO, as well as specific and persistent patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs; Hoerling and Kumar, 2003, Shin et al. 2010, Schubert et al. 2009). However, alternative drought initiators are also anticipated in response to increasing greenhouse gases, potentially changing the relative contribution of ocean variability as drought initiator. They include the intensification of the current zonal wet-dry patterns (the thermodynamic mechanism, Held and Soden, 2006), a latitudinal redistribution of global precipitation (the dynamical mechanism, Seager et al. 2007, Seidel et al. 2008, Scheff and Frierson 2008) and a reduction of local soil moisture and precipitation recycling (the land-atmosphere argument). Our ultimate goal is to investigate whether the relative contribution of those mechanisms change over time in response to global warming. In this study, we first perform an EOF analysis of the 1900-1999 time series of observed global SST field and identify a simple ENSO-like (ENSOL) mode of SST variability. We show that this mode is well spatially and temporally correlated with observed worldwide regional precipitation and drought variability. We then develop concise metrics to examine the fidelity with which the CMIP5 coupled global climate models (CGCMs) capture this particular ENSO-like mode in the current climate, and their ability to replicate the observed teleconnections with precipitation. Based on the CMIP5 model projections of future climate change, we finally analyze the potential temporal variations in ENSOL to be anticipated under further global warming, as well as their associated teleconnections with precipitation (pattern, amplitude, and total response). Overall, our approach allows us to determine what will be the effect of the current ENSO-like variability (i.e., as measured with instrumental observations) on precipitation in a warming world. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344, and is supported, among others, by C.B. Early Career Research Program award.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.; Vecchia, A.V.

2005-01-01

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10–40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10–30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate.

PubMed

Milly, P C D; Dunne, K A; Vecchia, A V

2005-11-17

Water availability on the continents is important for human health, economic activity, ecosystem function and geophysical processes. Because the saturation vapour pressure of water in air is highly sensitive to temperature, perturbations in the global water cycle are expected to accompany climate warming. Regional patterns of warming-induced changes in surface hydroclimate are complex and less certain than those in temperature, however, with both regional increases and decreases expected in precipitation and runoff. Here we show that an ensemble of 12 climate models exhibits qualitative and statistically significant skill in simulating observed regional patterns of twentieth-century multidecadal changes in streamflow. These models project 10-40% increases in runoff in eastern equatorial Africa, the La Plata basin and high-latitude North America and Eurasia, and 10-30% decreases in runoff in southern Africa, southern Europe, the Middle East and mid-latitude western North America by the year 2050. Such changes in sustainable water availability would have considerable regional-scale consequences for economies as well as ecosystems.

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Dynamically-downscaled projections of changes in temperature extremes over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Junhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Li, Yongping; Lin, Qianguo

2018-02-01

In this study, likely changes in extreme temperatures (including 16 indices) over China in response to global warming throughout the twenty-first century are investigated through the PRECIS regional climate modeling system. The PRECIS experiment is conducted at a spatial resolution of 25 km and is driven by a perturbed-physics ensemble to reflect spatial variations and model uncertainties. Simulations of present climate (1961-1990) are compared with observations to validate the model performance in reproducing historical climate over China. Results indicate that the PRECIS demonstrates reasonable skills in reproducing the spatial patterns of observed extreme temperatures over the most regions of China, especially in the east. Nevertheless, the PRECIS shows a relatively poor performance in simulating the spatial patterns of extreme temperatures in the western mountainous regions, where its driving GCM exhibits more uncertainties due to lack of insufficient observations and results in more errors in climate downscaling. Future spatio-temporal changes of extreme temperature indices are then analyzed for three successive periods (i.e., 2020s, 2050s and 2080s). The projected changes in extreme temperatures by PRECIS are well consistent with the results of the major global climate models in both spatial and temporal patterns. Furthermore, the PRECIS demonstrates a distinct superiority in providing more detailed spatial information of extreme indices. In general, all extreme indices show similar changes in spatial pattern: large changes are projected in the north while small changes are projected in the south. In contrast, the temporal patterns for all indices vary differently over future periods: the warm indices, such as SU, TR, WSDI, TX90p, TN90p and GSL are likely to increase, while the cold indices, such as ID, FD, CSDI, TX10p and TN10p, are likely to decrease with time in response to global warming. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of changes in all indices tend to decrease gradually with time, indicating the projected warming will begin to slow down in the late of this century. In addition, the projected range of changes for all indices would become larger with time, suggesting more uncertainties would be involved in long-term climate projections.

Measurement of physiological traits of paddy rice in temperature gradient chamber using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Photochemical Reflectance Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryu, J. H.; Oh, D.; Cho, J.

2017-12-01

Global warming has been affecting the phenological and physiological conditions of crop plants due to heat stress. Thus, the scientific understanding of not only crop-yield change, but also growth progress during high temperature condition is necessary. In this study, growth response and yield of paddy rice depending on air temperature (Ta) has been studied in a Temperature Gradient Chamber (TGC) that is composed of higher Ta than actual Ta (ambient temperature). The results on imitating experiment of global warming provided the reduced production of crop by heat stress. Therefore, it is important to quickly detect the condition of a plant in order to minimize damage to heat stress on global warming. Phenological and physiological changes depending on Ta was detected using optical spectroscopy sensors because remote sensing is useful and efficient technology to monitor quickly and continually. Two vegetation indices, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), were applied to monitor paddy rice growth using hyperspectral and multispectral radiometer. Ta in TGC was gradually set from actual Ta + 0 ° to actual Ta + 3 °. The variations of NDVI and PRI were different during rice growth period, and also these patterns were changed depending on Ta condition. NDVI and PRI under +3 ° condition increase faster than ambient temperature. After heading stage, the values of NDVI and PRI were dropped. However, the NDVI and PRI of rice under heat stress were relatively slowly decreased. In addition, we found that the yield of rice decreased in the case of delayed drop patterns of NDVI and PRI after heading stage. Our results will be useful to understand crop plant conditions using vegetation index under global warming situations.

Indian Ocean corals reveal crucial role of World War II bias for twentieth century warming estimates.

PubMed

Pfeiffer, M; Zinke, J; Dullo, W-C; Garbe-Schönberg, D; Latif, M; Weber, M E

2017-10-31

The western Indian Ocean has been warming faster than any other tropical ocean during the 20 th century, and is the largest contributor to the global mean sea surface temperature (SST) rise. However, the temporal pattern of Indian Ocean warming is poorly constrained and depends on the historical SST product. As all SST products are derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere dataset (ICOADS), it is challenging to evaluate which product is superior. Here, we present a new, independent SST reconstruction from a set of Porites coral geochemical records from the western Indian Ocean. Our coral reconstruction shows that the World War II bias in the historical sea surface temperature record is the main reason for the differences between the SST products, and affects western Indian Ocean and global mean temperature trends. The 20 th century Indian Ocean warming pattern portrayed by the corals is consistent with the SST product from the Hadley Centre (HadSST3), and suggests that the latter should be used in climate studies that include Indian Ocean SSTs. Our data shows that multi-core coral temperature reconstructions help to evaluate the SST products. Proxy records can provide estimates of 20 th century SST that are truly independent from the ICOADS data base.

Winners and losers: Ecological and biogeochemical changes in a warming ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutkiewicz, S.; Scott, J. R.; Follows, M. J.

2013-04-01

We employ a marine ecosystem model, with diverse and flexible phytoplankton communities, coupled to an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to explore mechanisms that will alter the biogeography and productivity of phytoplankton populations in a warming world. Simple theoretical frameworks and sensitivity experiments reveal that ecological and biogeochemical changes are driven by a balance between two impacts of a warming climate: higher metabolic rates (the "direct" effect), and changes in the supply of limiting nutrients and altered light environments (the "indirect" effect). On globally integrated productivity, the two effects compensate to a large degree. Regionally, the competition between effects is more complicated; patterns of productivity changes are different between high and low latitudes and are also regulated by how the supply of the limiting nutrient changes. These complex regional patterns are also found in the changes to broad phytoplankton functional groups. On the finer ecological scale of diversity within functional groups, we find that ranges of some phytoplankton types are reduced, while those of others (potentially minor players in the present ocean) expand. Combined change in areal extent of range and in regionally available nutrients leads to global "winners and losers." The model suggests that the strongest and most robust signal of the warming ocean is likely to be the large turnover in local phytoplankton community composition.

Interspecies physiological variation as a tool for cross-species assessments of global warming-induced endangerment: validation of an intrinsic determinant of macroecological and phylogeographic structure.

PubMed

Bernardo, Joseph; Ossola, Ryan J; Spotila, James; Crandall, Keith A

2007-12-22

Global warming is now recognized as the dominant threat to biodiversity because even protected populations and habitats are susceptible. Nonetheless, current criteria for evaluating species' relative endangerment remain purely ecological, and the accepted conservation strategies of habitat preservation and population management assume that species can mount ecological responses if afforded protection. The insidious threat from climate change is that it will attenuate or preclude ecological responses by species that are physiologically constrained; yet, quantitative, objective criteria for assessing relative susceptibility of diverse taxa to warming-induced stress are wanting. We explored the utility of using interspecies physiological variation for this purpose by relating species' physiological phenotypes to landscape patterns of ecological and genetic exchange. Using a salamander model system in which ecological, genetic and physiological diversity are well characterized, we found strong quantitative relationships of basal metabolic rates (BMRs) to both macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, with decreasing BMR leading to dispersal limitation (small contemporary ranges with marked phylogeographic structure). Measures of intrinsic physiological tolerance, which vary systematically with macroecological and phylogeographic patterns, afford objective criteria for assessing endangerment across a wide range of species and should be incorporated into conservation assessment criteria that currently rely exclusively upon ecological predictors.

An atmospheric origin of the multi-decadal bipolar seesaw.

PubMed

Wang, Zhaomin; Zhang, Xiangdong; Guan, Zhaoyong; Sun, Bo; Yang, Xin; Liu, Chengyan

2015-03-10

A prominent feature of recent climatic change is the strong Arctic surface warming that is contemporaneous with broad cooling over much of Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. Longer global surface temperature observations suggest that this contrasting pole-to-pole change could be a manifestation of a multi-decadal interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw pattern, which is well correlated with the North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, and thus generally hypothesized to originate from Atlantic meridional overturning circulation oscillations. Here, we show that there is an atmospheric origin for this seesaw pattern. The results indicate that the Southern Ocean surface cooling (warming) associated with the seesaw pattern is attributable to the strengthening (weakening) of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which can be traced to Northern Hemisphere and tropical tropospheric warming (cooling). Antarctic ozone depletion has been suggested to be an important driving force behind the recently observed increase in the Southern Hemisphere's summer westerly winds; our results imply that Northern Hemisphere and tropical warming may have played a triggering role at an stage earlier than the first detectable Antarctic ozone depletion, and enhanced Antarctic ozone depletion through decreasing the lower stratospheric temperature.

Will surface winds weaken in response to global warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jian; Foltz, Gregory R.; Soden, Brian J.; Huang, Gang; He, Jie; Dong, Changming

2016-12-01

The surface Walker and tropical tropospheric circulations have been inferred to slow down from historical observations and model projections, yet analysis of large-scale surface wind predictions is lacking. Satellite measurements of surface wind speed indicate strengthening trends averaged over the global and tropical oceans that are supported by precipitation and evaporation changes. Here we use corrected anemometer-based observations to show that the surface wind speed has not decreased in the averaged tropical oceans, despite its reduction in the region of the Walker circulation. Historical simulations and future projections for climate change also suggest a near-zero wind speed trend averaged in space, regardless of the Walker cell change. In the tropics, the sea surface temperature pattern effect acts against the large-scale circulation slow-down. For higher latitudes, the surface winds shift poleward along with the eddy-driven mid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a very small contribution to the global change in surface wind speed. Despite its importance for surface wind speed change, the influence of the SST pattern change on global-mean rainfall is insignificant since it cannot substantially alter the global energy balance. As a result, the precipitation response to global warming remains ‘muted’ relative to atmospheric moisture increase. Our results therefore show consistency between projections and observations of surface winds and precipitation.

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its impacts on the Indian Ocean during the global warming slowdown period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarim, S.; Liu, Z.; Yu, W.; Yan, X.; Sprintall, J.

2016-12-01

The global warming slowdown indicated by a slower warming rate at the surface layer accompanied by stronger heat transport into the deeper layers has been explored in the Indian Ocean. Although the mechanisms of the global warming slowdown are still under warm debate, some clues have been recognized that decadal La Nina like-pattern induced decadal cooling in the Pacific Ocean and generated an increase of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) transport in 2004-2010. However, how the ITF spreading to the interior of the Indian Ocean and the impact of ITF changes on the Indian Ocean, in particular its water mass transformation and current system are still unknown. To this end, we analyzed thermohaline structure and current system at different depths in the Indian Ocean both during and just before the global warming slowdown period using the ORAS4 and ARGO dataset. Here, we found the new edge of ITF at off Sumatra presumably as northward deflection of ITF Lombok Strait, and The Monsoon Onset Monitoring and Social Ecology Impact (MOMSEI) and Java Upwelling Variation Observation (JUVO) dataset confirmed this evident. An isopycnal mixing method initially proposed by Du et al. (2013) is adopted to quantify the spreading of ITF water in the Indian Ocean, and therefore the impacts of ITF changes on the variation of the Agulhas Current, Leuween Current, Bay of Bengal Water. This study also prevailed the fresher salinity in the Indian Ocean during the slowdown warming period were not only contributed by stronger transport of the ITF, but also by freshening Arabian Sea and infiltrating Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW).

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, Robert C.; Schneider, Tapio; Wallace, John M.; Battisti, David S.; Hartmann, Dennis L.

2018-03-01

A key challenge in climate science is to separate observed temperature changes into components due to internal variability and responses to external forcing. Extended integrations of forced and unforced climate models are often used for this purpose. Here we demonstrate a novel method to separate modes of internal variability from global warming based on differences in time scale and spatial pattern, without relying on climate models. We identify uncorrelated components of Pacific sea surface temperature variability due to global warming, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our results give statistical representations of PDO and ENSO that are consistent with their being separate processes, operating on different time scales, but are otherwise consistent with canonical definitions. We isolate the multidecadal variability of the PDO and find that it is confined to midlatitudes; tropical sea surface temperatures and their teleconnections mix in higher-frequency variability. This implies that midlatitude PDO anomalies are more persistent than previously thought.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Desert Amplification in a Warming Climate

PubMed Central

Zhou, Liming

2016-01-01

Here I analyze the observed and projected surface temperature anomalies over land between 50°S-50°N for the period 1950–2099 by large-scale ecoregion and find strongest warming consistently and persistently seen over driest ecoregions such as the Sahara desert and the Arabian Peninsula during various 30-year periods, pointing to desert amplification in a warming climate. This amplification enhances linearly with the global mean greenhouse gases(GHGs) radiative forcing and is attributable primarily to a stronger GHGs-enhanced downward longwave radiation forcing reaching the surface over drier ecoregions as a consequence of a warmer and thus moister atmosphere in response to increasing GHGs. These results indicate that desert amplification may represent a fundamental pattern of global warming associated with water vapor feedbacks over land in low- and mid- latitudes where surface warming rates depend inversely on ecosystem dryness. It is likely that desert amplification might involve two types of water vapor feedbacks that maximize respectively in the tropical upper troposphere and near the surface over deserts, with both being very dry and thus extremely sensitive to changes of water vapor. PMID:27538725

Anesthetic gases and global warming: Potentials, prevention and future of anesthesia.

PubMed

Gadani, Hina; Vyas, Arun

2011-01-01

Global warming refers to an average increase in the earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere and include: water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs), ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Hazardous chemicals enter the air we breathe as a result of dozens of activities carried out during a typical day at a healthcare facility like processing lab samples, burning fossil fuels etc. We sometimes forget that anesthetic agents are also greenhouse gases (GHGs). Anesthetic agents used today are volatile halogenated ethers and the common carrier gas nitrous oxide known to be aggressive GHGs. With less than 5% of the total delivered halogenated anesthetic being metabolized by the patient, the vast majority of the anesthetic is routinely vented to the atmosphere through the operating room scavenging system. The global warming potential (GWP) of a halogenated anesthetic is up to 2,000 times greater than CO2. Global warming potentials are used to compare the strength of different GHGs to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to that of CO2. Here we discuss about the GWP of anesthetic gases, preventive measures to decrease the global warming effects of anesthetic gases and Xenon, a newer anesthetic gas for the future of anesthesia.

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Koster, Randal; Weaver, Scott; Gutzler, David; Dai, Aiguo; Delworth, Tom; Deser, Clara; Findell, Kristen; Fu, Rong;

Water - The key to global change. [of weather and climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Soffen, Gerald A.

1988-01-01

The role of water in processes of global change is discussed. The importance of water in global warming, the loss of biological diversity, the activity of the El Nino southern oscillation, and the melting of polar ice are examined. Plans for a mission to measure tropical rainfall using a two frequency radar, a visible/IR radiometer and a passive microwave radiometer are noted. The way in which global change is affected by changes in patterns of available water is considered.

Common Warming Pattern Emerges Irrespective of Forcing Location

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Sarah M.; Park, Kiwoong; Jin, Fei-Fei; Stuecker, Malte F.

2017-10-01

The Earth's climate is changing due to the existence of multiple radiative forcing agents. It is under question whether different forcing agents perturb the global climate in a distinct way. Previous studies have demonstrated the existence of similar climate response patterns in response to aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcings. In this study, the sensitivity of tropospheric temperature response patterns to surface heating distributions is assessed by forcing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean with a wide range of possible forcing patterns. We show that a common climate pattern emerges in response to localized forcing at different locations. This pattern, characterized by enhanced warming in the tropical upper troposphere and the polar lower troposphere, resembles the historical trends from observations and models as well as the future projections. Atmospheric dynamics in combination with thermodynamic air-sea coupling are primarily responsible for shaping this pattern. Identifying this common pattern strengthens our confidence in the projected response to GHG and aerosols in complex climate models.

Changing patterns of wildlife diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLean, R.G.

2001-01-01

The purpose of this paper was not to analyze the effects of global warming on wildlife disease patterns, but to serve as a springboard for future efforts to identify those wildlife diseases, including zoonotic diseases, that could be influenced the most by warming climates and to encourage the development of models to examine the potential effects. Hales et al. (1999) examined the relationship of the incidence of a vector-borne human disease, Dengue fever, and El Nino southern oscillations for South Pacific Island nations. The development of similar models on specific wildlife diseases which have environmental factors strongly associated with transmission would provide information and options for the future management of our wildlife resources.

Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age Signatures in the Distribution of Modern Ocean Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebbie, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

It is well established both that global temperatures have varied overthe last millenium and that the interior ocean reflects surfaceproperties inherited over these timescales. Signatures of theMedieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are thus to be expected in themodern ocean state, though the magnitude of these effects and whetherthey are detectable is unclear. Analysis of changes in temperatureacross those obtained in the 1870s as part of the theH.M.S. Challenger expedition, the 1990s World Ocean CirculationExperiment, and recent Argo observations shows a consistent pattern:the upper ocean and Atlantic have warmed, but the oldest waters inthe deep Pacific appear to have cooled. The implications of pressureeffects on the H.M.S. Challenger thermometers and uncertainties indepth of observations are non-negligible but do not appear tofundamentally alter this pattern. Inversion of the modern hydrographyusing ocean transport estimates derived from passive tracer andradiocarbon observations indicates that deep Pacific cooling could bea vestige of the Medieval Warm Period, and that warming elsewhere reflects thecombined effects of emergence from the Little Ice Age and modernanthropogenic warming. Implications for longterm variations in oceanheat uptake and separating natural and anthropogenic contributions to themodern energy imbalance are discussed.

The Impact of Global Warming on Precipitation Patterns in Ilorin and the Hydrological Balance of the Awun Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayanshola, Ayanniyi; Olofintoye, Oluwatosin; Obadofin, Ebenezer

2018-03-01

This study presents the impact of global warming on precipitation patterns in Ilorin, Nigeria, and its implications on the hydrological balance of the Awun basin under the prevailing climate conditions. The study analyzes 39 years of rainfall and temperature data of relevant stations within the study areas. Simulated data from the Coupled Global Climate model for historical and future datasets were investigated under the A2 emission scenario. Statistical regression and a Mann-Kendall analysis were performed to determine the nature of the trends in the hydrological variables and their significance levels, while a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to estimate the water balance and derive the stream flow and yield of the Awun basin. The study revealed that while minimum and maximum temperatures in Ilorin are increasing, rainfall is generally decreasing. The assessment of the trends in the water balance parameters in the basin indicates that there is no improvement in the water yield as the population increases. This may result in major stresses to the water supply in the near future.

Global Ocean Circulation During Cretaceous Time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haupt, B. J.; Seidov, D.

2001-12-01

Present--day global thermohaline ocean circulation (TOC) is usually associated with high--latitude deep-water formation due to surface cooling. In this understanding of the TOC driven by the deep--water production, the warm deep ocean during Mesozoic--Cenozoic time is a challenge. It may be questioned whether warm deep--ocean water, which is direct geologic evidence, does reflect warm polar surface--ocean regions. For the warm Cretaceous, it is difficult to maintain strong poleward heat transport in the case of reduced oceanic thermal contrasts. Usually, atmospheric feedbacks, in conjunction with the increase of atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, are employed in order to explain the warm equable Cretaceous--Eocene climate. However, there is no feasible physical mechanism that could maintain warm subpolar surface oceans in both hemispheres, an assumption often used in atmospheric modeling. Our numerical experiments indicate that having a relatively cool but saltier high--latitude sea surface in at least one hemisphere is sufficient for driving a strong meridional overturning. Thus freshwater impacts in the high latitudes may be responsible for a vigorous conveyor capable of maintaining sufficient poleward oceanic heat transport needed to keep the polar oceans ice--free. These results imply that evaporation-precipitation patterns during warm climates are especially important climatic factors that can redistribute freshwater to create hemispheric asymmetry of sea surface conditions capable of generating a sufficiently strong TOC, otherwise impossible in warm climates.

Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

2010-05-01

The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of the dispersion, though for a given SST pattern, ARPEGE does not necessarily reproduce the anomaly produced originally by the IPCC model which produced the SST anomaly. Many factors can contribute to this discrepancy, but the most prominent seems to be the absence of coupling between the forced atmospheric ARPEGE simulation and the underlying ocean. When the atmospheric model is forced by prescribed SST anomalies some retroactions between cyclogenesis and ocean are missing. There are however areas over the globe were models agree about the CYGP or GPI anomalies induced by global warming, such as the Indian Ocean that shows a better coherency in the coupled and forced responses. This could be an indication that interaction between ocean and atmosphere is not as strong there as in the other basins. Details of the results for all the other ocean basins will be presented. References: Chauvin F. and J.-F. Royer and M. Déqué , 2006: Response of hurricane-type vortices to global warming as simulated by ARPEGE-Climat at high resolution. Climate Dynamics 27(4), 377-399. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change], Climate change 2007: The physical science basis, in: S. Solomon et al. (eds.), Cambridge University Press. Royer JF, F Chauvin, 2009: Response of tropical cyclogenesis to global warming in an IPCC AR-4 scenario assessed by a modified yearly genesis parameter. "Hurricanes and Climate Change", J. B. Elsner and T. H. Jagger (Eds.), Springer, ISBN: 978-0-387-09409-0, pp 213-234.

Global warming and obesity: a systematic review.

PubMed

An, R; Ji, M; Zhang, S

2018-02-01

Global warming and the obesity epidemic are two unprecedented challenges mankind faces today. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, EBSCO and Scopus for articles published until July 2017 that reported findings on the relationship between global warming and the obesity epidemic. Fifty studies were identified. Topic-wise, articles were classified into four relationships - global warming and the obesity epidemic are correlated because of common drivers (n = 21); global warming influences the obesity epidemic (n = 13); the obesity epidemic influences global warming (n = 13); and global warming and the obesity epidemic influence each other (n = 3). We constructed a conceptual model linking global warming and the obesity epidemic - the fossil fuel economy, population growth and industrialization impact land use and urbanization, motorized transportation and agricultural productivity and consequently influences global warming by excess greenhouse gas emission and the obesity epidemic by nutrition transition and physical inactivity; global warming also directly impacts obesity by food supply/price shock and adaptive thermogenesis, and the obesity epidemic impacts global warming by the elevated energy consumption. Policies that endorse deployment of clean and sustainable energy sources, and urban designs that promote active lifestyles, are likely to alleviate the societal burden of global warming and obesity. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

Is Global Warming Accelerating?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shukla, J.; Delsole, T. M.; Tippett, M. K.

2009-12-01

A global pattern that fluctuates naturally on decadal time scales is identified in climate simulations and observations. This newly discovered component, called the Global Multidecadal Oscillation (GMO), is related to the Atlantic Meridional Oscillation and shown to account for a substantial fraction of decadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature. IPCC-class climate models generally underestimate the variance of the GMO, and hence underestimate the decadal fluctuations due to this component of natural variability. Decomposing observed sea surface temperature into a component due to anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing plus the GMO, reveals that most multidecadal fluctuations in the observed global average sea surface temperature can be accounted for by these two components alone. The fact that the GMO varies naturally on multidecadal time scales implies that it can be predicted with some skill on decadal time scales, which provides a scientific rationale for decadal predictions. Furthermore, the GMO is shown to account for about half of the warming in the last 25 years and hence a substantial fraction of the recent acceleration in the rate of increase in global average sea surface temperature. Nevertheless, in terms of the global average “well-observed” sea surface temperature, the GMO can account for only about 0.1° C in transient, decadal-scale fluctuations, not the century-long 1° C warming that has been observed during the twentieth century.

Frequency of Deep Convective Clouds and Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aumann, Hartmut H.; Teixeira, Joao

2008-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the effect of global warming on the formation of Deep Convective Clouds (DCC). It concludes that nature responds to global warming with an increase in strong convective activity. The frequency of DCC increases with global warming at the rate of 6%/decade. The increased frequency of DCC with global warming alone increases precipitation by 1.7%/decade. It compares the state of the art climate models' response to global warming, and concludes that the parametrization of climate models need to be tuned to more closely emulate the way nature responds to global warming.

Range-expanding pests and pathogens in a warming world.

PubMed

Bebber, Daniel Patrick

2015-01-01

Crop pests and pathogens (CPPs) present a growing threat to food security and ecosystem management. The interactions between plants and their natural enemies are influenced by environmental conditions and thus global warming and climate change could affect CPP ranges and impact. Observations of changing CPP distributions over the twentieth century suggest that growing agricultural production and trade have been most important in disseminating CPPs, but there is some evidence for a latitudinal bias in range shifts that indicates a global warming signal. Species distribution models using climatic variables as drivers suggest that ranges will shift latitudinally in the future. The rapid spread of the Colorado potato beetle across Eurasia illustrates the importance of evolutionary adaptation, host distribution, and migration patterns in affecting the predictions of climate-based species distribution models. Understanding species range shifts in the framework of ecological niche theory may help to direct future research needs.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Towards a physical understanding of stratospheric cooling under global warming through a process-based decomposition method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yang; Ren, R.-C.; Cai, Ming

2016-12-01

The stratosphere has been cooling under global warming, the causes of which are not yet well understood. This study applied a process-based decomposition method (CFRAM; Coupled Surface-Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method) to the simulation results of a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5) model (CCSM4; Community Climate System Model, version 4), to demonstrate the responsible radiative and non-radiative processes involved in the stratospheric cooling. By focusing on the long-term stratospheric temperature changes between the "historical run" and the 8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) scenario, this study demonstrates that the changes of radiative radiation due to CO2, ozone and water vapor are the main divers of stratospheric cooling in both winter and summer. They contribute to the cooling changes by reducing the net radiative energy (mainly downward radiation) received by the stratospheric layer. In terms of the global average, their contributions are around -5, -1.5, and -1 K, respectively. However, the observed stratospheric cooling is much weaker than the cooling by radiative processes. It is because changes in atmospheric dynamic processes act to strongly mitigate the radiative cooling by yielding a roughly 4 K warming on the global average base. In particular, the much stronger/weaker dynamic warming in the northern/southern winter extratropics is associated with an increase of the planetary-wave activity in the northern winter, but a slight decrease in the southern winter hemisphere, under global warming. More importantly, although radiative processes dominate the stratospheric cooling, the spatial patterns are largely determined by the non-radiative effects of dynamic processes.

Persistence of carbon release events through the peak of early Eocene global warmth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtland Turner, Sandra; Sexton, Philip F.; Charles, Christopher D.; Norris, Richard D.

2014-10-01

The Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (53-50 million years ago) was preceded by approximately six million years of progressive global warming. This warming was punctuated by a series of rapid hyperthermal warming events triggered by the release of greenhouse gases. Over these six million years, the carbon isotope record suggests that the events became more frequent but smaller in magnitude. This pattern has been suggested to reflect a thermodynamic threshold for carbon release that was more easily crossed as global temperature rose, combined with a decrease in the size of carbon reservoirs during extremely warm conditions. Here we present a continuous, 4.25-million-year-long record of the stable isotope composition of carbonate sediments from the equatorial Atlantic, spanning the peak of early Eocene global warmth. A composite of this and pre-existing records shows that the carbon isotope excursions that identify the hyperthermals exhibit continuity in magnitude and frequency throughout the approximately 10-million-year period covering the onset, peak and termination of the Early Eocene Climate Optimum. We suggest that the carbon cycle processes behind these events, excluding the largest event, the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 56 million years ago), were not exceptional. Instead, we argue that the hyperthermals may reflect orbital forcing of the carbon cycle analogous to the mechanisms proposed to operate in the cooler Oligocene and Miocene.

Warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yaojie; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao; Huang, Ke; Zu, Jiaxing; Chen, Ning; Cong, Nan; Stegehuis, Annemiek Irene

2018-03-01

As the recent global warming hiatus and the warming on high elevations are attracting worldwide attention, this study examined the robustness of the warming slowdown over the Tibetan plateau (TP) and its related driving forces. By integrating multiple-source data from 1982 to 2015 and using trend analysis, we found that the mean temperature (T mean), maximum temperature (T max) and minimum temperature (T min) showed a slowdown of the warming trend around 1998, during the period of the global warming hiatus. This was found over both the growing season (GS) and non-growing season (NGS) and suggested a robust warming hiatus over the TP. Due to the differences in trends of T max and T min, the trend of diurnal temperature range (DTR) also shifted after 1998, especially during the GS temperature. The warming rate was spatially heterogeneous. The northern TP (NTP) experienced more warming than the southern TP (STP) in all seasons from 1982 to 1998, while the pattern was reversed in the period from 1998 to 2015. Water vapour was found to be the main driving force for the trend in T mean and T min by influencing downward long wave radiation. Sunshine duration was the main driving force behind the trend in T max and DTR through a change in downward shortwave radiation that altered the energy source of daytime temperature. Water vapour was the major driving force for temperature change over the NTP, while over the STP, sunshine duration dominated the temperature trend.

Observations of Urban Heat Island Mitigation in California Coastal Cities due to a Sea Breeze Induced Coastal-Cooling ``REVERSE-REACTION'' to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bornstein, R. D.; Lebassi, B.; Gonzalez, J.

2010-12-01

The study evaluated long-term (1948-2005) air temperatures at over 300 urban and rural sites in California (CA) during summer (June-August, JJA). The aggregate CA results showed asymmetric warming, as daily min temperatures increased faster than daily max temperatures. The spatial distributions of daily max temperatures in the heavily urbanized South Coast and San Francisco Bay Area air basins, however, exhibited a complex pattern, with cooling at low-elevation (mainly urban) coastal-areas and warming at (mainly rural) inland areas. Previous studies have suggested that cooling summer max temperatures in CA were due to increased irrigation, coastal upwelling, or cloud cover. The current hypothesis, however, is that this temperature pattern arises from a “reverse-reaction” to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced global-warming. In this hypothesis, the global warming of inland areas resulted in an increased (cooling) sea breeze activity in coastal areas. That daytime summer coastal cooling was seen in coastal urban areas implies that urban heat island (UHI) warming was weaker than the reverse-reaction sea breeze cooling; if there was no UHI effect, then the cooling would have been even stronger. Analysis of daytime summer max temperatures at four adjacent pairs of urban and rural sites near the inland cooling-warming boundary, however, showed that the rural sites experienced cooling, while the urban sites showed warming due to UHI development. The rate of heat island growth was estimated as the sum of each urban warming rate and the absolute magnitude of the concurrent adjacent rural cooling rate. Values ranged from 0.12 to 0.55 K decade-1, and were proportional to changes in urban population and urban extent. As Sacramento, Modesto, Stockton, and San José have grown in aerial extent (21 to 59%) and population (40 to 118%), part of the observed increased JJA max values could be due to increased daytime UHI-intensity. Without UHI effects, the currently observed JJA SFBA coastal-cooling area might have expanded to include these sites, as the first three are adjacent to rural airport sites that showed cooling max-values due to increased marine influences. In addition, all urbanized sites with decreasing max-values would probably show even larger cooling rates if UHI effects could be removed. Significant societal impacts may result from this observed reverse-reaction to GHG-warming. Possible beneficial effects (especially during periods of UHI growth) include decreased maximum: O3 levels, per-capita energy requirements for cooling, and human thermal-stress levels.

Evolution of Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature over Different Climatic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajendran, V.; C T, D.; Chakravorty, A.; AghaKouchak, A.

2016-12-01

The increase in drought, flood, diseases, crop failure etc. in the recent past has created an alarm amongst the researchers. One of the main reasons behind the intensification of these environmental hazards is the recent revelation of climate change, which is generally attributed to the human induced global warming, represented by an increase in global mean temperature. However, in order to formulate policies to mitigate and prevent the threats due to global warming, its key driving factors should be analysed at high spatial and temporal resolution. Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) is one of the indicators of global warming. The study of the evolution of the DTR is crucial, since it affects agriculture, health, ecosystems, transport, etc. Recent studies reveal that diurnal asymmetry has decreased globally, whereas a few regional studies report a contradictory pattern and attributed them to localized feedback processes. However, an evident conclusion cannot be made using the linear trend approaches employed in the past studies and the evolution of diurnal asymmetry should be investigated using non-linear trend approach for better perception. Hence, the regional evolution of DTR trend has been analysed using the spatially-temporally Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method over India and observed a positive trend in over-all mean of DTR, while its rate of increase has declined in the recent decades. Further, the grids showing negative trend in DTR is observed in arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands and positive trend over the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the North-East. This transition predominantly began from the west coast and is stretched with an increase in magnitude. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon seasons, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than that of the maximum temperature. These analyses suggest that the DTR changes are influenced by both, local and global factors working in tandem, since a warmed up ocean produces contradictory DTR trends in different climatic zones. It can be inferred from this study that the impact of a global change in a region will depend on the regional climate.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Thai Youths and Global Warming: Media Information, Awareness, and Lifestyle Activities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chokriensukchai, Kanchana; Tamang, Ritendra

2010-01-01

This study examines the exposure of Thai youths to media information on global warming, the relationship between exposure to global warming information and awareness of global warming, and the relationship between that awareness and lifestyle activities that contribute to global warming. A focus group of eight Thai youths provided information that…

Global Warming in Schools: An Inquiry about the Competing Conceptions of High School Social Studies and Science Curricula and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehan, Casey R.

Despite the scientific consensus supporting the theory of anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming, whether global warming is a serious problem, whether human activity is the primary cause of it, and whether scientific consensus exists at all are controversial questions among the U.S. lay-public. The cultural theory of risk perception (Schwarz and Thompson, 1990) serves as the theoretical framework for this qualitative analysis in which I ask the question how do U.S. secondary school curricula and teachers deal with the disparity between the overwhelming scientific consensus and the lay-public's skepticism regarding global warming? I analyzed nine widely used social studies and science textbooks, eight sets of supplemental materials about global warming produced by a range of not-for-profit and governmental organizations, and interviewed fourteen high school teachers who had experience teaching formal lessons about global warming in their content area. Findings suggest: 1) the range of global warming content within social studies and science textbooks and supplemental curricula reflects the spectrum of conceptualizations found among members of the U.S. public; 2) global warming curricula communicate only a narrow range of strategies for dealing with global warming and its associated threats; and 3) social studies and science teachers report taking a range of stances about global warming in their classroom, but sometimes the stance they put forth to their students does not align with their personal beliefs about global warming. The findings pose a troubling conundrum. Some of the global warming curricula treat the cause of global warming--a question that is not scientifically controversial--as a question with multiple and competing "right" answers. At the same time, much of curricula position how we should address global warming--a question that is legitimately controversial--as a question with one correct answer despite there being many reasonable responses. Finally, I present the implications this conundrum has for teaching about global warming in a politically polarized atmosphere.

Press-pulse interactions: effects of warming, N deposition, altered winter precipitation, and fire on desert grassland community structure and dynamics.

PubMed

Collins, Scott L; Ladwig, Laura M; Petrie, Matthew D; Jones, Sydney K; Mulhouse, John M; Thibault, James R; Pockman, William T

2017-03-01

Global environmental change is altering temperature, precipitation patterns, resource availability, and disturbance regimes. Theory predicts that ecological presses will interact with pulse events to alter ecosystem structure and function. In 2006, we established a long-term, multifactor global change experiment to determine the interactive effects of nighttime warming, increased atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increased winter precipitation on plant community structure and aboveground net primary production (ANPP) in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland. In 2009, a lightning-caused wildfire burned through the experiment. Here, we report on the interactive effects of these global change drivers on pre- and postfire grassland community structure and ANPP. Our nighttime warming treatment increased winter nighttime air temperatures by an average of 1.1 °C and summer nighttime air temperature by 1.5 °C. Soil N availability was 2.5 times higher in fertilized compared with control plots. Average soil volumetric water content (VWC) in winter was slightly but significantly higher (13.0% vs. 11.0%) in plots receiving added winter rain relative to controls, and VWC was slightly higher in warmed (14.5%) compared with control (13.5%) plots during the growing season even though surface soil temperatures were significantly higher in warmed plots. Despite these significant treatment effects, ANPP and plant community structure were highly resistant to these global change drivers prior to the fire. Burning reduced the cover of the dominant grasses by more than 75%. Following the fire, forb species richness and biomass increased significantly, particularly in warmed, fertilized plots that received additional winter precipitation. Thus, although unburned grassland showed little initial response to multiple ecological presses, our results demonstrate how a single pulse disturbance can interact with chronic alterations in resource availability to increase ecosystem sensitivity to multiple drivers of global environmental change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate model calculations of the effects of volcanoes on global climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robock, Alan

1992-01-01

An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95 percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

C-N-P interactions control climate driven changes in regional patterns of C storage on the North Slope of Alaska

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Yueyang; Rocha, Adrian; Rastetter, Edward

2016-01-01

As climate warms, changes in the carbon (C) balance of arctic tundra will play an important role in the global C balance. The C balance of tundra is tightly coupled to the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles because soil organic matter is the principal source of plant-available nutrients and determines the spatial variation of vegetation biomass across the North Slope of Alaska. Warming will accelerate these nutrient cycles, which should stimulate plant growth.

Aerosol, Cloud, and Climate: From Observation to Model (457th Brookhaven Lecture)

ScienceCinema

Wang, Jian [Ph.D., Environmental Sciences Department

2017-12-09

In the last 100 years, the Earth has warmed by about 1ºF, glaciers and sea ice have been melting more quickly than previously, especially during the past decade, and the level of the sea has risen about 6-8 inches worldwide. Scientists have long been investigating this phenomenon of “global warming,” which is believed to be at least partly due to the increased carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the air from burning fossil fuels. Funded by DOE, teams of researchers from BNL and other national labs have been gathering data in the U.S. and internationally to build computer models of climate and weather to help in understanding general patterns, causes, and perhaps, solutions. Among many findings, researchers observed that atmospheric aerosols, minute particles in the atmosphere, can significantly affect global energy balance and climate. Directly, aerosols scatter and absorb sunlight. Indirectly, increased aerosol concentration can lead to smaller cloud droplets, changing clouds in ways that tend to cool global climate and potentially mask overall warming from man-made CO2.

Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zheng; Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin

2017-09-01

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario (the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

Abrupt shifts in ecosystem function and intensification of global biogeochemical cycle driven by hydroclimatic extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xuanlong; Huete, Alfredo; Ponce-Campos, Guillermo; Zhang, Yongguang; Xie, Zunyi; Giovannini, Leandro; Cleverly, James; Eamus, Derek

2016-04-01

Amplification of the hydrologic cycle as a consequence of global warming is increasing the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of extreme climate events globally. The potential influences resulting from amplification of the hydro-climatic cycle, coupled with an accelerating warming trend, pose great concerns on the sustainability of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon, maintain biodiversity, provide ecosystem services, food security, and support human livelihood. Despite the great implications, the magnitude, direction, and carry-over effect of these extreme climate events on ecosystem function, remain largely uncertain. To address these pressing issues, we conducted an observational, interdisciplinary study using satellite retrievals of atmospheric CO2 and photosynthesis (chlorophyll fluorescence), and in-situ flux tower measures of ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, to reveal the shifts in ecosystem function across extreme drought and wet periods. We further determine the factors that govern ecosystem sensitivity to hydroclimatic extremes. We focus on Australia but extended our analyses to other global dryland regions due to their significant role in global biogeochemical cycles. Our results revealed dramatic impacts of drought and wet hydroclimatic extremes on ecosystem function, with abrupt changes in vegetation productivity, carbon uptake, and water-use-efficiency between years. Drought resulted in widespread reductions or collapse in the normal patterns of vegetation growth seasonality such that in many cases there was no detectable phenological cycle during extreme drought years. We further identified a significant increasing trend (p < 0.001) in extreme wet year precipitation amounts over Australia and many other global regions, resulting in an increasing trend in magnitude of the episodic carbon sink pulses coupled to each La Niña-induced wet years. This finding is of global biogeochemical significance, with the consequence of amplifying the global carbon cycle. Lastly, we use landscape measurements of carbon and water fluxes from eddy-covariance towers and field sampling of aboveground net primary productivity from long-term ecological networks to verify the patterns observed by top-down approaches. Our results demonstrate the intensification of hydroclimatic extremes due to global warming is exerting important impacts on ecosystem function, which further have significant implications on global biogeochemical cycles as well as local ecosystem processes.

The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

2010-05-01

Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the interpretation of the warming effect, especially when viewed in the linkage climate change information and impact assessment studies.

Response of Global Lightning Activity Observed by the TRMM/LIS During Warm and Cold ENSO Phases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Cecil, Dan; Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis

2007-01-01

This paper investigates the response of global lightning activity to the transition from the warm (January February March-JFM 1998) to the cold (JFM 1999) ENSO phase. The nine-year global lightning climatology for these months from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) provides the observational baseline. Flash rate density is computed on a 5.0x5.0 degree lat/lon grid within the LIS coverage area (between approx.37.5 N and S) for each three month period. The flash rate density anomalies from this climatology are examined for these months in 1998 and 1999. The observed lightning anomalies spatially match the documented general circulation features that accompany the warm and cold ENSO events. During the warm ENSO phase the dominant positive lightning anomalies are located mostly over the Western Hemisphere and more specifically over Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and Northern Mid-Atlantic. We further investigate specifically the Northern Mid-Atlantic related anomaly features since these show strong relation to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore these observed anomaly patterns show strong spatial agreement with anomalous upper level (200 mb) cold core cyclonic circulations. Positive sea surface temperature anomalies during the warm ENSO phase also affect the lightning activity, but this is mostly observed near coastal environments. Over the open tropical oceans, there is climatologically less lightning and the anomalies are less pronounced. Warm ENSO related anomalies over the Eastern Hemisphere are most prominent over the South China coast. The transition to the cold ENSO phase illustrates the detected lightning anomalies to be more pronounced over East and West Pacific. A comparison of total global lightning between warm and cold ENSO phase reveals no significant difference, although prominent regional anomalies are located over mostly oceanic environments. All three tropical "chimneys" (Maritime Continent, Central Africa, and Amazon Basin) do not show any particular response to this transition.

Global Terrestrial Patterns of Precipitation Change under a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, R.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial global warming has occurred over the last century, especially since the 1950s. This study analyzes changes in global terrestrial precipitation patterns in period of 1950-2010 in an attempt to identify the influence of climate change on precipitation. The results indicate that there is no significant change globally or across latitude bands; nevertheless significant regional differences in precipitation changes are identified. The lack of a change in precipitation levels, or precipitation balance, at both the global and latitudinal band scales is a result of offsetting by opposing precipitation changes at the regional scales. Clear opposing precipitation change patterns appeared in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude band (NHM). Significant increases in precipitation were distributed throughout the western extent of NHM, including the North America, Europe and west of Central Asia, while decreases were observed over the eastern extent, namely, East Asia. A dynamical adjustment methodology was applied to precipitation data, which could identify the roles of atmospheric circulation (dynamic) and the residual (thermodynamic) forcing played in generating the opposing regional precipitation changes in the NHM. Distinct different changes of dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation were found in different regions. Increased precipitation in North America and southern Europe were caused by thermodynamic precipitation, while the dynamic precipitation presented decreased trend due to the positive sea level pressure trend. However, in northern Europe and west of Central Asia, dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation both contributed to the increased precipitation, but thermodynamic precipitation had larger amplitude. In East Asia, the decreased precipitation was a result of simultaneous decrease in dynamic and thermodynamic precipitation.

Observed decreases in the Canadian outdoor skating season due to recent winter warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damyanov, Nikolay N.; Damon Matthews, H.; Mysak, Lawrence A.

2012-03-01

Global warming has the potential to negatively affect one of Canada’s primary sources of winter recreation: hockey and ice skating on outdoor rinks. Observed changes in winter temperatures in Canada suggest changes in the meteorological conditions required to support the creation and maintenance of outdoor skating rinks; while there have been observed increases in the ice-free period of several natural water bodies, there has been no study of potential trends in the duration of the season supporting the construction of outdoor skating rinks. Here we show that the outdoor skating season (OSS) in Canada has significantly shortened in many regions of the country as a result of changing climate conditions. We first established a meteorological criterion for the beginning, and a proxy for the length of the OSS. We extracted this information from daily maximum temperature observations from 1951 to 2005, and tested it for significant changes over time due to global warming as well as due to changes in patterns of large-scale natural climate variability. We found that many locations have seen a statistically significant decrease in the OSS length, particularly in Southwest and Central Canada. This suggests that future global warming has the potential to significantly compromise the viability of outdoor skating in Canada.

Reductions in labour capacity from heat stress under climate warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunne, John P.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; John, Jasmin G.

2013-06-01

A fundamental aspect of greenhouse-gas-induced warming is a global-scale increase in absolute humidity. Under continued warming, this response has been shown to pose increasingly severe limitations on human activity in tropical and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress. One heat-stress metric with broad occupational health applications is wet-bulb globe temperature. We combine wet-bulb globe temperatures from global climate historical reanalysis and Earth System Model (ESM2M) projections with industrial and military guidelines for an acclimated individual's occupational capacity to safely perform sustained labour under environmental heat stress (labour capacity)--here defined as a global population-weighted metric temporally fixed at the 2010 distribution. We estimate that environmental heat stress has reduced labour capacity to 90% in peak months over the past few decades. ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to 80% in peak months by 2050. Under the highest scenario considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), ESM2M projects labour capacity reduction to less than 40% by 2200 in peak months, with most tropical and mid-latitudes experiencing extreme climatological heat stress. Uncertainties and caveats associated with these projections include climate sensitivity, climate warming patterns, CO2 emissions, future population distributions, and technological and societal change.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1...

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Pattern of NDVI-based vegetation greening along an altitudinal gradient in the eastern Himalayas and its response to global warming.

PubMed

Li, Haidong; Jiang, Jiang; Chen, Bin; Li, Yingkui; Xu, Yuyue; Shen, Weishou

2016-03-01

The eastern Himalayas, especially the Yarlung Zangbo Grand Canyon Nature Reserve (YNR), is a global hotspot of biodiversity because of a wide variety of climatic conditions and elevations ranging from 500 to > 7000 m above sea level (a.s.l.). The mountain ecosystems at different elevations are vulnerable to climate change; however, there has been little research into the patterns of vegetation greening and their response to global warming. The objective of this paper is to examine the pattern of vegetation greening in different altitudinal zones in the YNR and its relationship with vegetation types and climatic factors. Specifically, the inter-annual change of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and its variation along altitudinal gradient between 1999 and 2013 was investigated using SPOT-VGT NDVI data and ASTER global digital elevation model (GDEM) data. We found that annual NDVI increased by 17.58% in the YNR from 1999 to 2013, especially in regions dominated by broad-leaved and coniferous forests at lower elevations. The vegetation greening rate decreased significantly as elevation increased, with a threshold elevation of approximately 3000 m. Rising temperature played a dominant role in driving the increase in NDVI, while precipitation has no statistical relationship with changes in NDVI in this region. This study provides useful information to develop an integrated management and conservation plan for climate change adaptation and promote biodiversity conservation in the YNR.

Military Implications of Global Warming.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-05-20

U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

Biology: Survival of the finfish

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sunday, Jennifer

2017-10-01

A trait-based approach for assessing physiological sensitivity to climate change can connect a species' evolutionary past with its future vulnerability. Now a global assessment of freshwater and marine fishes reveals patterns of warming sensitivity, highlighting the importance of different biogeographies and identifying places where vulnerability runs high.

Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

Emerging Vibrio risk at high latitudes in response to ocean warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker-Austin, Craig; Trinanes, Joaquin A.; Taylor, Nick G. H.; Hartnell, Rachel; Siitonen, Anja; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime

2013-01-01

There is increasing concern regarding the role of climate change in driving bacterial waterborne infectious diseases. Here we illustrate associations between environmental changes observed in the Baltic area and the recent emergence of Vibrio infections and also forecast future scenarios of the risk of infections in correspondence with predicted warming trends. Using multidecadal long-term sea surface temperature data sets we found that the Baltic Sea is warming at an unprecedented rate. Sea surface temperature trends (1982-2010) indicate a warming pattern of 0.063-0.078°Cyr-1 (6.3-7.8°C per century; refs , ), with recent peak temperatures unequalled in the history of instrumented measurements for this region. These warming patterns have coincided with the unexpected emergence of Vibrio infections in northern Europe, many clustered around the Baltic Sea area. The number and distribution of cases correspond closely with the temporal and spatial peaks in sea surface temperatures. This is among the first empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change is driving the emergence of Vibrio disease in temperate regions through its impact on resident bacterial communities, implying that this process is reshaping the distribution of infectious diseases across global scales.

Evaluation of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential during mainstream large-scale aerobic composting.

PubMed

He, Xueqin; Chen, Longjian; Han, Lujia; Liu, Ning; Cui, Ruxiu; Yin, Hongjie; Huang, Guangqun

2017-12-01

This study investigated the effects of biochar powder on oxygen supply efficiency and global warming potential (GWP) in the large-scale aerobic composting pattern which includes cyclical forced-turning with aeration at the bottom of composting tanks in China. A 55-day large-scale aerobic composting experiment was conducted in two different groups without and with 10% biochar powder addition (by weight). The results show that biochar powder improves the holding ability of oxygen, and the duration time (O 2 >5%) is around 80%. The composting process with above pattern significantly reduce CH 4 and N 2 O emissions compared to the static or turning-only styles. Considering the average GWP of the BC group was 19.82% lower than that of the CK group, it suggests that rational addition of biochar powder has the potential to reduce the energy consumption of turning, improve effectiveness of the oxygen supply, and reduce comprehensive greenhouse effects. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Our Globally Changing Climate. Chapter 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Easterling, D. R.; Hayhoe, K.; Knutson, T.; Kopp, R. E.; Kossin, J. P.; Kunkel, K. E.; LeGrande, A. N.; Mears, C.; Sweet, W. V.;

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE PAGES

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.; ...

2016-07-18

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lago, Veronique; Wijffels, Susan E.; Durack, Paul J.

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observedmore » salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.« less

Global patterns in endemism explained by past climatic change.

PubMed

Jansson, Roland

2003-03-22

I propose that global patterns in numbers of range-restricted endemic species are caused by variation in the amplitude of climatic change occurring on time-scales of 10-100 thousand years (Milankovitch oscillations). The smaller the climatic shifts, the more probable it is that palaeoendemics survive and that diverging gene pools persist without going extinct or merging, favouring the evolution of neoendemics. Using the change in mean annual temperature since the last glacial maximum, estimated from global circulation models, I show that the higher the temperature change in an area, the fewer endemic species of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and vascular plants it harbours. This relationship was robust to variation in area (for areas greater than 10(4) km2), latitudinal position, extent of former glaciation and whether or not areas are oceanic islands. Past climatic change was a better predictor of endemism than annual temperature range in all phylads except amphibians, suggesting that Rapoport's rule (i.e. species range sizes increase with latitude) is best explained by the increase in the amplitude of climatic oscillations towards the poles. Globally, endemic-rich areas are predicted to warm less in response to greenhouse-gas emissions, but the predicted warming would cause many habitats to disappear regionally, leading to species extinctions.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognosis for a sick planet.

PubMed

Maslin, Mark

2008-12-01

Global warming is the most important science issue of the 21st century, challenging the very structure of our global society. The study of past climate has shown that the current global climate system is extremely sensitive to human-induced climate change. The burning of fossil fuels since the beginning of the industrial revolution has already caused changes with clear evidence for a 0.75 degrees C rise in global temperatures and 22 cm rise in sea level during the 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report (2007) predicts that global temperatures by 2100 could rise by between 1.1 degrees C and 6.4 degrees C. Sea level could rise by between 28 cm and 79 cm, more if the melting of the polar ice caps accelerates. In addition, weather patterns will become less predictable and the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms, floods, heat waves and droughts, will increase. The potential effects of global warming on human society are devastating. We do, however, already have many of the technological solutions to cure our sick planet.

The ENSO Effect on the Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Global Lightning Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis G.; Goodman, Steven J.; Cecil, Dan; Buechler, Dennis; Pittman, Jasna; Robertson, Franklin R.; Blakeslee, Richard J.

2007-01-01

The recently reprocessed (1997-2006) OTD/LIS database is used to investigate the global lightning climatology in response to the ENSO cycle. A linear correlation map between lightning anomalies and ENSO (NINO3.4) identifies areas that generally follow patterns similar to precipitation anomalies. We also observed areas where significant lightning/ENSO correlations are found and are not accompanied of significant precipitation/ENSO correlations. An extreme case of the strong decoupling between lightning and precipitation is observed over the Indonesian peninsula (Sumatra) where positive lightning/NINO3.4 correlations are collocated with negative precipitation/NINO3.4 correlations. Evidence of linear relationships between the spatial extent of thunderstorm distribution and the respective NINO3.4 magnitude are presented for different regions on the Earth. Strong coupling is found over areas remote to the main ENSO axis of influence and both during warm and cold ENSO phases. Most of the resulted relationships agree with the tendencies of precipitation related to ENSO empirical maps or documented teleconnection patterns. Over the Australian continent, opposite behavior in terms of thunderstorm activity is noted for warm ENSO phases with NINO3.4 magnitudes with NINO3.4>+l.08 and 0

How robust is the atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea-ice loss in isolation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushner, P. J.; Hay, S. E.; Blackport, R.; McCusker, K. E.; Oudar, T.

2017-12-01

It is now apparent that active dynamical coupling between the ocean and atmosphere determines a good deal of how Arctic sea-ice loss changes the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In coupled ocean-atmosphere models, Arctic sea-ice loss indirectly induces a 'mini' global warming and circulation changes that extend into the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. Ocean-atmosphere coupling also amplifies by about 50% Arctic free-tropospheric warming arising from sea-ice loss (Deser et al. 2015, 2016). The mechanisms at work and how to separate the response to sea-ice loss from the rest of the global warming process remain poorly understood. Different studies have used distinctive numerical approaches and coupled ocean-atmosphere models to address this problem. We put these studies on comparable footing using pattern scaling (Blackport and Kushner 2017) to separately estimate the part of the circulation response that scales with sea-ice loss in the absence of low-latitude warming from the part that scales with low-latitude warming in the absence of sea-ice loss. We consider well-sampled simulations from three different coupled ocean-atmosphere models (CESM1, CanESM2, CNRM-CM5), in which greenhouse warming and sea-ice loss are driven in different ways (sea ice albedo reduction/transient RCP8.5 forcing for CESM1, nudged sea ice/CO2 doubling for CanESM2, heat-flux forcing/constant RCP8.5-derived forcing for CNRM-CM5). Across these different simulations, surprisingly robust influences of Arctic sea-ice loss on atmospheric circulation can be diagnosed using pattern scaling. For boreal winter, the isolated sea-ice loss effect acts to increase warming in the North American Sub-Arctic, decrease warming of the Eurasian continent, enhance precipitation over the west coast of North America, and strengthen the Aleutian Low and the Siberian High. We will also discuss how Arctic free tropospheric warming might be enhanced via midlatitude ocean surface warming induced by sea-ice loss. Less robust is the part of the response that scales with low-latitude warming, which, depending on the model, can reinforce or cancel the response to sea-ice loss. The extent to which a "tug of war" exists between tropical and high-latitude influences on the general circulation might thus be model dependent.

Mid-Century Warming in the Los Angeles Region and its Uncertainty using Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, F.; Hall, A. D.; Walton, D.; Capps, S. B.; Qu, X.; Huang, H. J.; Berg, N.; Jousse, A.; Schwartz, M.; Nakamura, M.; Cerezo-Mota, R.

2012-12-01

Using a combination of dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques, we projected mid-21st century warming in the Los Angeles region at 2-km resolution. To account for uncertainty associated with the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions, we examined projections for both "business-as-usual" (RCP8.5) and "mitigation" (RCP2.6) emissions scenarios from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). To account for the considerable uncertainty associated with choice of global climate model, we downscaled results for all available global climate models in CMIP5. For the business-as-usual scenario, we find that by the mid-21st century, the most likely warming is roughly 2.6°C averaged over the region's land areas, with a 95% confidence that the warming lies between 0.9 and 4.2°C. The high resolution of the projections reveals a pronounced spatial pattern in the warming: High elevations and inland areas separated from the coast by at least one mountain complex warm 20 to 50% more than the areas near the coast or within the Los Angeles basin. This warming pattern is especially apparent in summertime. The summertime warming contrast between the inland and coastal zones has a large effect on the most likely expected number of extremely hot days per year. Coastal locations and areas within the Los Angeles basin see roughly two to three times the number of extremely hot days, while high elevations and inland areas typically experience approximately three to five times the number of extremely hot days. Under the mitigation emissions scenario, the most likely warming and increase in heat extremes are somewhat smaller. However, the majority of the warming seen in the business-as-usual scenario still occurs at all locations in the most likely case under the mitigation scenario, and heat extremes still increase significantly. This warming study is the first part of a series studies of our project. More climate change impacts on the Santa Ana wind, rainfall, snowfall and snowmelt, cloud and surface hydrology are forthcoming and could be found in www.atmos.ucla.edu/csrl.he ensemble-mean, annual-mean surface air temperature change and its uncertainty from the available CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 (left) and RCP2.6 (right) emissions scenarios, unit: °C.

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-01-01

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a “climate hiatus” of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1–100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101–300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301–700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701–1500 m has experienced significant warming. PMID:26394551

Distinctive ocean interior changes during the recent warming slowdown.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang

2015-09-23

The earth system experiences continuous heat input, but a "climate hiatus" of upper ocean waters has been observed in this century. This leads to a question: where is the extra heat going? Using four in situ observation datasets, we explore the ocean subsurface temperature changes from 2004 to 2013. The observations all show that the ocean has continued to gain heat in this century, which is indicative of anthropogenic global warming. However, a distinctive pattern of change in the interior ocean is observed. The sea surface (1-100 m) temperature has decreased in this century, accompanied by warming in the 101-300 m layer. This pattern is due to the changes in the frequency of El Niño and La Niña events (ENSO characteristics), according to both observations and CMIP5 model simulations. In addition, we show for the first time that the ocean subsurface within 301-700 m experienced a net cooling, indicative of another instance of variability in the natural ocean. Furthermore, the ocean layer of 701-1500 m has experienced significant warming.

Title: Freshwater phytoplankton responses to global warming.

PubMed

Wagner, Heiko; Fanesi, Andrea; Wilhelm, Christian

2016-09-20

Global warming alters species composition and function of freshwater ecosystems. However, the impact of temperature on primary productivity is not sufficiently understood and water quality models need to be improved in order to assess the quantitative and qualitative changes of aquatic communities. On the basis of experimental data, we demonstrate that the commonly used photosynthetic and water chemistry parameters alone are not sufficient for modeling phytoplankton growth under changing temperature regimes. We present some new aspects of the acclimation process with respect to temperature and how contrasting responses may be explained by a more complete physiological knowledge of the energy flow from photons to new biomass. We further suggest including additional bio-markers/traits for algal growth such as carbon allocation patterns to increase the explanatory power of such models. Although carbon allocation patterns are promising and functional cellular traits for growth prediction under different nutrient and light conditions, their predictive power still waits to be tested with respect to temperature. A great challenge for the near future will be the prediction of primary production efficiencies under the global change scenario using a uniform model for phytoplankton assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A meta-analysis of responses of soil biota to global change.

PubMed

Blankinship, Joseph C; Niklaus, Pascal A; Hungate, Bruce A

2011-03-01

Global environmental changes are expected to impact the abundance of plants and animals aboveground, but comparably little is known about the responses of belowground organisms. Using meta-analysis, we synthesized results from over 75 manipulative experiments in order to test for patterns in the effects of elevated CO(2), warming, and altered precipitation on the abundance of soil biota related to taxonomy, body size, feeding habits, ecosystem type, local climate, treatment magnitude and duration, and greenhouse CO(2) enrichment. We found that the positive effect size of elevated CO(2) on the abundance of soil biota diminished with time, whereas the negative effect size of warming and positive effect size of precipitation intensified with time. Trophic group, body size, and experimental approaches best explained the responses of soil biota to elevated CO(2), whereas local climate and ecosystem type best explained responses to warming and altered precipitation. The abundance of microflora and microfauna, and particularly detritivores, increased with elevated CO(2), indicative of microbial C limitation under ambient CO(2). However, the effects of CO(2) were smaller in field studies than in greenhouse studies and were not significant for higher trophic levels. Effects of warming did not depend on taxon or body size, but reduced abundances were more likely to occur at the colder and drier sites. Precipitation limited all taxa and trophic groups, particularly in forest ecosystems. Our meta-analysis suggests that the responses of soil biota to global change are predictable and unique for each global change factor.

Climate change and allergic disease.

PubMed

Shea, Katherine M; Truckner, Robert T; Weber, Richard W; Peden, David B

2008-09-01

Climate change is potentially the largest global threat to human health ever encountered. The earth is warming, the warming is accelerating, and human actions are largely responsible. If current emissions and land use trends continue unchecked, the next generations will face more injury, disease, and death related to natural disasters and heat waves, higher rates of climate-related infections, and wide-spread malnutrition, as well as more allergic and air pollution-related morbidity and mortality. This review highlights links between global climate change and anticipated increases in prevalence and severity of asthma and related allergic disease mediated through worsening ambient air pollution and altered local and regional pollen production. The pattern of change will vary regionally depending on latitude, altitude, rainfall and storms, land-use patterns, urbanization, transportation, and energy production. The magnitude of climate change and related increases in allergic disease will be affected by how aggressively greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are pursued, but at best an average warming of 1 to 2 degrees C is certain this century. Thus, anticipation of a higher allergic disease burden will affect clinical practice as well as public health planning. A number of practical primary and secondary prevention strategies are suggested at the end of the review to assist in meeting this unprecedented public health challenge.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Terry P.; Kerry, James T.; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G.; Anderson, Kristen D.; Baird, Andrew H.; Babcock, Russell C.; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R.; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C.; Butler, Ian R.; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E.; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R.; Cumming, Graeme S.; Dalton, Steven J.; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C. Mark; Figueira, Will F.; Gilmour, James P.; Harrison, Hugo B.; Heron, Scott F.; Hoey, Andrew S.; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Kennedy, Emma V.; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M.; Lowe, Ryan J.; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; McWilliam, Michael J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Pears, Rachel J.; Pratchett, Morgan S.; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J.; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R.; Willis, Bette L.; Wilson, Shaun K.

2017-03-01

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Global farm animal production and global warming: impacting and mitigating climate change.

PubMed

Koneswaran, Gowri; Nierenberg, Danielle

2008-05-01

The farm animal sector is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, contributing to many environmental problems, including global warming and climate change. The aim of this study was to synthesize and expand upon existing data on the contribution of farm animal production to climate change. We analyzed the scientific literature on farm animal production and documented greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as various mitigation strategies. An analysis of meat, egg, and milk production encompasses not only the direct rearing and slaughtering of animals, but also grain and fertilizer production for animal feed, waste storage and disposal, water use, and energy expenditures on farms and in transporting feed and finished animal products, among other key impacts of the production process as a whole. Immediate and far-reaching changes in current animal agriculture practices and consumption patterns are both critical and timely if GHGs from the farm animal sector are to be mitigated.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

PubMed

Hughes, Terry P; Kerry, James T; Álvarez-Noriega, Mariana; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Anderson, Kristen D; Baird, Andrew H; Babcock, Russell C; Beger, Maria; Bellwood, David R; Berkelmans, Ray; Bridge, Tom C; Butler, Ian R; Byrne, Maria; Cantin, Neal E; Comeau, Steeve; Connolly, Sean R; Cumming, Graeme S; Dalton, Steven J; Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; Eakin, C Mark; Figueira, Will F; Gilmour, James P; Harrison, Hugo B; Heron, Scott F; Hoey, Andrew S; Hobbs, Jean-Paul A; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Kennedy, Emma V; Kuo, Chao-Yang; Lough, Janice M; Lowe, Ryan J; Liu, Gang; McCulloch, Malcolm T; Malcolm, Hamish A; McWilliam, Michael J; Pandolfi, John M; Pears, Rachel J; Pratchett, Morgan S; Schoepf, Verena; Simpson, Tristan; Skirving, William J; Sommer, Brigitte; Torda, Gergely; Wachenfeld, David R; Willis, Bette L; Wilson, Shaun K

2017-03-15

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Long-terms Change of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Y. G.; Choi, A.

2016-02-01

Using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) the long term trend in the South China Sea (SCS) sea surface temperature (SST) between 1950 and 2008 is investigated. Both in winter and summer SST was increased by comparable amounts, but the warming patterns and the governing processes was different. During winter warming rate was greater in the deep basin in the central part, while during summer near the southern part. In winter the net heat flux into the sea was increased and could contribute to the warming. The pattern of the heat flux, however, was different from that of the warming. The heat flux was increased over the coastal area where warming was weaker, but decreased in deeper part where warming was stronger. The northeasterly monsoon wind weakened to lower the shoreward Ekman transport and the sea surface height gradient. The cyclonic gyre that transports cold northern water to south was weakened to warm the ocean. The effect manifested more strongly southward western boundary currents, and subsequently cold advection. In summer the net surface heat flux, however, was reduced and could not contribute to the warming. Over the southern part of the ocean the weakening of the southwesterly summer monsoon reduced southeastward Ekman transport, which is antiparallel to the mean SST gradient. Firstly, southeastward cold advection is reduced to warm the surface near the southeastern boundary of the SCS. The upwelling southeast of Vietnam was also weakened to raise the SST east of Vietnam. Thus the weakening of the wind in each season was the ultimate cause of the warming, but the responses of the ocean that lead to the warming were different.

Detection and Attribution of Temperature Trends in the Presence of Natural Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, J. M.

2014-12-01

The fingerprint of human-induced global warming stands out clearly above the noise In the time series of global-mean temperature, but not local temperature. At extratropical latitudes over land the standard error of 50-year linear temperature trends at a fixed point is as large as the cumulative rise in global-mean temperature over the past century. Much of the samping variability in local temperature trends is "dynamically-induced", i.e., attributable to the fact that the seasonally-varying mean circulation varies substantially from one year to the next and anomalous circulation patterns are generally accompanied by anomalous temperature patterns. In the presence of such large sampling variability it is virtually impossible to identify the spatial signature of greenhouse warming based on observational data or to partition observed local temperature trends into natural and human-induced components. It follows that previous IPCC assessments, which have focused on the deterministic signature of human-induced climate change, are inherently limited as to what they can tell us about the attribution of the past record of local temperature change or about how much the temperature at a particular place is likely to rise in the next few decades in response to global warming. To obtain more informative assessments of regional and local climate variability and change it will be necessary to take a probabilistic approach. Just as the use of the ensembles has contributed to more informative extended range weather predictions, large ensembles of climate model simulations can provide a statistical context for interpreting observed climate change and for framing projections of future climate. For some purposes, statistics relating to the interannual variability in the historical record can serve as a surrogate for statistics relating to the diversity of climate change scenarios in large ensembles.

Evaluating Arctic warming mechanisms in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzke, Christian L. E.; Lee, Sukyoung; Feldstein, Steven B.

2017-05-01

Arctic warming is one of the most striking signals of global warming. The Arctic is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth and constitutes, thus, a good test bed to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the physics and dynamics involved in Arctic warming. Different physical and dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification. These mechanisms include the surface albedo feedback and poleward sensible and latent heat transport processes. During the winter season when Arctic amplification is most pronounced, the first mechanism relies on an enhancement in upward surface heat flux, while the second mechanism does not. In these mechanisms, it has been proposed that downward infrared radiation (IR) plays a role to a varying degree. Here, we show that the current generation of CMIP5 climate models all reproduce Arctic warming and there are high pattern correlations—typically greater than 0.9—between the surface air temperature (SAT) trend and the downward IR trend. However, we find that there are two groups of CMIP5 models: one with small pattern correlations between the Arctic SAT trend and the surface vertical heat flux trend (Group 1), and the other with large correlations (Group 2) between the same two variables. The Group 1 models exhibit higher pattern correlations between Arctic SAT and 500 hPa geopotential height trends, than do the Group 2 models. These findings suggest that Arctic warming in Group 1 models is more closely related to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, whereas in Group 2, the albedo feedback effect plays a more important role. Interestingly, while Group 1 models have a warm or weak bias in their Arctic SAT, Group 2 models show large cold biases. This stark difference in model bias leads us to hypothesize that for a given model, the dominant Arctic warming mechanism and trend may be dependent on the bias of the model mean state.

Global Warming: Its Implications for U.S. National Security Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-19

The approach to this topic will be to look at the science behind anthropogenic global warming . Is man largely responsible for causing global warming due...paper will then investigate the nexus between global warming and U.S. national security policy. It will address the challenges facing U.S. leaders and...policy makers as they tackle the issue of global warming and its implications for U.S. policy. Finally it will conclude with recommendations for those

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends.

PubMed

Desai, A R; Wohlfahrt, G; Zeeman, M J; Katata, G; Eugster, W; Montagnani, L; Gianelle, D; Mauder, M; Schmid, H-P

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Montane ecosystem productivity responds more to global circulation patterns than climatic trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, A. R.; Wohlfahrt, G.; Zeeman, M. J.; Katata, G.; Eugster, W.; Montagnani, L.; Gianelle, D.; Mauder, M.; Schmid, H.-P.

2016-02-01

Regional ecosystem productivity is highly sensitive to inter-annual climate variability, both within and outside the primary carbon uptake period. However, Earth system models lack sufficient spatial scales and ecosystem processes to resolve how these processes may change in a warming climate. Here, we show, how for the European Alps, mid-latitude Atlantic ocean winter circulation anomalies drive high-altitude summer forest and grassland productivity, through feedbacks among orographic wind circulation patterns, snowfall, winter and spring temperatures, and vegetation activity. Therefore, to understand future global climate change influence to regional ecosystem productivity, Earth systems models need to focus on improvements towards topographic downscaling of changes in regional atmospheric circulation patterns and to lagged responses in vegetation dynamics to non-growing season climate anomalies.

Rapid warming of the world's lakes: Interdecadal variability and long-term trends from 1910-2009 using in situ and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Read, J. S.; Sharma, S.; O'Reilly, C.; Hampton, S. E.; Gray, D.; McIntyre, P. B.; Hook, S. J.; Schneider, P.; Soylu, M. E.; Barabás, N.; Lofton, D. D.

2014-12-01

Global and regional changes in climate have important implications for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Recent studies, for example, have revealed significant warming of inland water bodies throughout the world. To better understand the global patterns, physical mechanisms, and ecological implications of lake warming, an initiative known as the "Global Lake Temperature Collaboration" (GLTC) was started in 2010, with the objective of compiling and analyzing lake temperature data from numerous satellite and in situ records dating back at least 20-30 years. The GLTC project has now assembled data from over 300 lakes, with some in situ records extending back more than 100 years. Here, we present an analysis of the long-term warming trends, interdecadal variability, and a direct comparison between in situ and remotely sensed lake surface temperature for the 3-month summer period July-September (January-March for some lakes). The overall results show consistent, long-term trends of increasing summer-mean lake surface temperature across most but not all sites. Lakes with especially long records show accelerated warming in the most recent two to three decades, with almost half of the lakes warming at rates in excess of 0.5 °C per decade during the period 1985-2009, and a few even exceeding 1.0 °C per decade. Both satellite and in situ data show a similar distribution of warming trends, and a direct comparison at lake sites that have both types of data reveals a close correspondence in mean summer water temperature, interannual variability, and long-term trends. Finally, we examine standardized lake surface temperature anomalies across the full 100-year period (1910-2009), and in conjunction with similar timeseries of air temperature. The results reveal a close correspondence between summer air temperature and lake surface temperature on interannual and interdecadal timescales, but with many lakes warming more rapidly than the ambient air temperature over 25- to 100-year periods.

Understanding the El Niño-like Oceanic Response in the Tropical Pacific to Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Luo, Yiyong; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai

The enhanced central and eastern Pacific SST warming and the associated ocean processes under global warming are investigated using the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Parallel Ocean Program version 2 (POP2). The tropical SST warming pattern in the coupled CESM can be faithfully reproduced by the POP2 forced with surface fluxes computed using the aerodynamic bulk formula. By prescribing the wind stress and/or wind speed through the bulk formula, the effects of wind stress change and/or the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback are isolated and their linearity is evaluated in this ocean-alone setting. Result shows that, although themore » weakening of the equatorial easterlies contributes positively to the El Niño-like SST warming, 80% of which can be simulated by the POP2 without considering the effects of wind change in both mechanical and thermodynamic fluxes. This result points to the importance of the air-sea thermal interaction and the relative feebleness of the ocean dynamical process in the El Niño-like equatorial Pacific SST response to global warming. On the other hand, the wind stress change is found to play a dominant role in the oceanic response in the tropical Pacific, accounting for most of the changes in the equatorial ocean current system and thermal structures, including the weakening of the surface westward currents, the enhancement of the near-surface stratification and the shoaling of the equatorial thermocline. Interestingly, greenhouse gas warming in the absence of wind stress change and WES feedback also contributes substantially to the changes at the subsurface equatorial Pacific. Further, this warming impact can be largely replicated by an idealized ocean experiment forced by a uniform surface heat flux, whereby, arguably, a purest form of oceanic dynamical thermostat is revealed.« less

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DU, Y.; Zhang, Y.

2016-02-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s

PubMed Central

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-01-01

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004–2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate. PMID:26522168

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

PubMed

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-02

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Large-Scale Ocean Circulation-Cloud Interactions Reduce the Pace of Transient Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trossman, D. S.; Palter, J. B.; Merlis, T. M.; Huang, Y.; Xia, Y.

2016-01-01

Changes to the large scale oceanic circulation are thought to slow the pace of transient climate change due, in part, to their influence on radiative feedbacks. Here we evaluate the interactions between CO2-forced perturbations to the large-scale ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback in a climate model. Both the change of the ocean circulation and the radiative cloud feedback strongly influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of surface and ocean warming. Changes in the ocean circulation reduce the amount of transient global warming caused by the radiative cloud feedback by helping to maintain low cloud coverage in the face of global warming. The radiative cloud feedback is key in affecting atmospheric meridional heat transport changes and is the dominant radiative feedback mechanism that responds to ocean circulation change. Uncertainty in the simulated ocean circulation changes due to CO2 forcing may contribute a large share of the spread in the radiative cloud feedback among climate models.

78 FR 20632 - Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-05

... Greenhouse Gases: Notice of Data Availability Regarding Global Warming Potential Values for Certain... the availability of estimated global warming potentials, as well as data and analysis submitted in... global warming potentials and the data and analysis supporting them. We are also requesting comment on...

Communicating the Science of Global Warming — the Role of Astronomers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Jeffrey

2018-06-01

Global Warming is one of the most important and issues of our times, yet it is widely misunderstood among the general public (and politicians!). The American Astronomical Society has already joined many other scientific organizations in advocating for action on global warming (by supporting the AGU statement on global warming), but we as astronomers can do much more. The high public profile of astronomy gives us a unique platform — and credibility as scientists — for doing our part to educate the public about the underlying science of global warming. And while astronomers are not climate scientists, we use the same basic physics, and many aspects of global warming science come directly from astronomy, including the ways in which we measure the heat-absorbing potential of carbon dioxide and the hard evidence of greenhouse warming provided by studies of Venus. In this session, I will briefly introduce a few methods for communicating about global warming that I believe you will find effective in your own education efforts.

Role of atmospheric heating over the South China Sea and western Pacific regions in modulating Asian summer climate under the global warming background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Bian; Yang, Song; Li, Zhenning

2016-05-01

The response of monsoon precipitation to global warming, which is one of the most significant climate change signals at the earth's surface, exhibits very distinct regional features, especially over the South China Sea (SCS) and adjacent regions in boreal summer. To understand the possible atmospheric dynamics in these specific regions under the global warming background, changes in atmospheric heating and their possible influences on Asian summer climate are investigated by both observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Results indicate that heating in the middle troposphere has intensified in the SCS and western Pacific regions in boreal summer, accompanied by increased precipitation, cloud cover, and lower-tropospheric convergence and decreased sea level pressure. Sensitivity experiments show that middle and upper tropospheric heating causes an east-west feedback pattern between SCS and western Pacific and continental South Asia, which strengthens the South Asian High in the upper troposphere and moist convergence in the lower troposphere, consequently forcing a descending motion and adiabatic warming over continental South Asia. When air-sea interaction is considered, the simulation results are overall more similar to observations, and in particular the bias of precipitation over the Indian Ocean simulated by AGCMs has been reduced. The result highlights the important role of air-sea interaction in understanding the changes in Asian climate.

Quantifying Regional Vegetation Changes in China During Three Contrasting Warming Intervals since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Q.; Wu, H.; Yu, Y.; Sun, A.; Luo, Y.

2017-12-01

Reconstructing patterns of past vegetation change on a large-scale facilitates a better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks between climate change and the terrestrial biosphere. In addition, reducing the uncertainty in predictions of vegetation change under global warming highlights the importance of reconstructing vegetation patterns during past warming intervals. Here, we present a quantitative regional vegetation reconstruction for China during three intervals: Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 18±2 14C kyr B.P.), early Holocene (8.5±0.5 14C kyr B.P.), and mid-Holocene (6±0.5 14C kyr B.P.). The biomization method, based on 249 pollen records, was used for the reconstructions. The results demonstrate that during the LGM, steppe and desert expanded eastwards and southwards, reaching the present-day temperate deciduous forest (TEDE) zone, and dominated northern China. In contrast, the forest in Eastern China underwent a substantial southwards retreat and the percentage of forest-type sites was at a minimum. In addition, the warm mixed forest (WAMF) and TEDE shifted southwards of 10° N relative to the present-day, and tropical seasonal rain forest (TSFO) was almost absent. At the same time, the forest-steppe boundary shifted southwards to near the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. For the early Holocene and mid-Holocene, the TSFO, WAMF, and TEDE shifted northwards by 2-5° relative to today, and the percentage of forest sites increased and reached a maximum in the mid-Holocene. The slight expansion of forest from the early Holocene to the mid-Holocene caused the forest-steppe boundary to shift northwestwards to near the present-day 300 mm isohyet by the mid-Holocene. Our results also indicate that climatic warming since the LGM, which strengthened the East Asian summer monsoon, favored the development of forest in China. This is potentially an important finding for evaluating the possible response of forest in China to future global warming.

The Impact of Abrupt Suspension of Solar Radiation Management (Termination Effect) in Experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Andrew; Haywood, J.; Alterskjaer, Kari

2013-09-11

We have examined changes in climate which result from the sudden termination of geoengineering after 50 years of offsetting a 1% per annum increase in CO2 concentra- tions as simulated by 11 different climate models in experiment G2 of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree on a rapid rate of global-mean warming following termination, accompanied by increases in global-mean precipitation rate and in plant net primary productivity, and decreases in sea-ice cover. While there is a considerable degree of consensus for the geographical distribution of warming, there is much less of an agreement regarding the patterns of changemore » in the other quantities.« less

Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming.

PubMed

Lima, Fernando P; Wethey, David S

2012-02-28

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

The neglected nonlocal effects of deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, Johannes; Reick, Christian; Pongratz, Julia

2017-04-01

Deforestation changes surface temperature locally via biogeophysical effects by changing the water, energy and momentum balance. Adding to these locally induced changes (local effects), deforestation at a given location can cause changes in temperature elsewhere (nonlocal effects). Most previous studies have not considered local and nonlocal effects separately, but investigated the total (local plus nonlocal) effects, for which global deforestation was found to cause a global mean cooling. Recent modeling and observational studies focused on the isolated local effects: The local effects are relevant for local living conditions, and they can be obtained from in-situ and satellite observations. Observational studies suggest that the local effects of potential deforestation cause a warming when averaged globally. This contrast between local warming and total cooling indicates that the nonlocal effects of deforestation are causing a cooling and thus counteract the local effects. It is still unclear how the nonlocal effects depend on the spatial scale of deforestation, and whether they still compensate the local warming in a more realistic spatial distribution of deforestation. To investigate this, we use a fully coupled climate model and separate local and nonlocal effects of deforestation in three steps: Starting from a forest world, we simulate deforestation in one out of four grid boxes using a regular spatial pattern and increase the number of deforestation grid boxes step-wise up to three out of four boxes in subsequent simulations. To compare these idealized spatial distributions of deforestation to a more realistic case, we separate local and nonlocal effects in a simulation where deforestation is applied in regions where it occurred historically. We find that the nonlocal effects scale nearly linearly with the number of deforested grid boxes, and the spatial distribution of the nonlocal effects is similar for the regular spatial distribution of deforestation and the more realistic pattern. Globally averaged, the deforestation-induced warming of the local effects is counteracted by the nonlocal effects, which are about three times as strong as the local effects (up to 0.1K local warming versus -0.3K nonlocal cooling). Thus, the nonlocal effects are more cooling than the local effects are warming, and this is valid not only for idealized simulations of large-scale deforestation, but also for a more realistic deforestation scenario. We conclude that the local effects of deforestation only yield an incomplete picture of the total climate effects by biogeophysical pathways. While the local effects capture the direct climatic response at the site of deforestation, the nonlocal effects have to be included if the biogeophysical effects of deforestation are considered for an implementation in climate policies.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-06-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region.

The early vs the late 20th century Arctic warming: The role of energy and aerosol fluxes in reanalysis driven datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegmann, Martin; Broennimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

During the last two decades, the Arctic was put into the scientific focus as one of the most impacted regions worldwide concerning anthropogenic global warming. However, the warming between 1920 and 1940 proofs the importance of internal variability on yearly and decadal scale. Therefore, it is important to further investigate the role of external and internal forcings on the Arctic climate attribute process and causes leading to changes in the Arctic climate regime (Serreze & Barry 2009). Although much research effort was spent to understand the links and influences of and on the Arctic climate, there is still a need for further insights concerning this topic. Especially the results and discussion about anthropogenic global warming and Arctic amplification put the Arctic into the public and academic focus (Serreze & Barry 2011). However, the early 20th century Arctic warming, although discovered immediately, was scientifically forgotten until recently (Delworth & Knutson 2000, Bengtsson et al 2004, Grant et al 2009, Bekryaev et al 2010). The comparison of this earlier Arctic warming and the recent warming period grants a chance to deepen knowledge about the drivers of Arctic climate and can be used to evaluate the anthropogenic impact. The authors use the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset and a nudged, reanalysis-driven Aerosol Global Circulation Model (A-GCM) to investigate the impact of atmospheric energy and aerosol fluxes into the Arctic during the 20th century. The 20CR dataset covers the period of 1871 - 2010 with a temporal resolution of 6hr and a spatial resolution of 2° x 2°. For the first time, this dataset (and ist 56 ensemble member) is used to compute the atmospheric energy flux, consisting of sensble heat, latent heat, potential energy and kinetic energy. The values are integrated around 70° N and between 1000 - 100 hPa. Aerosol fluxes for the same domain but for the years 1957 - 2000 are calculated based on the A-GCM nudged to the ECMWF 40 year Re-analysis (ERA) and correlated to circulation patterns. Based on these dataset we analyze timeseries and patterns of several variables, with a focus on the temperature changes in the Arctic domain. We show that the 20CR can recreate recent sensible heat fluxes, meaning from the 1950s onward. Before this timeperiod 20CR exhibits a strong positive energy influx between 1920 and 1930, which is difficult to validate, however probably arises due to missrepresentation of local wind maxima, mostly over the Canadian Arctic. The authors highlight the impact of this flaw by investigating snow cover and atmospheric stability over the Arctic. Finally, the two datasets are compared and exemplary extreme events in aerosol fluxes are analysed in terms of warming impact and the related circulation patterns. Possible implications for the future use of 20CR are discussed, together with the impact of our findings for the interpretation of the early 20th warming in todays context.

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.1634 - Significant deterioration of air quality.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... gases in the pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

40 CFR 52.223 - Approval status.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... pollutant GHGs, by the gas's associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming Potentials. (B) Sum the resultant value from paragraph (b)(4)(ii)(A) of... associated global warming potential published at Table A-1 to subpart A of 40 CFR part 98—Global Warming...

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall

PubMed Central

Putnam, Aaron E.; Broecker, Wallace S.

2017-01-01

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth’s rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth’s inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth’s thermal equator, around which the planet’s rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres. PMID:28580418

Partitioning the effects of Global Warming on the Hydrological Cycle with Stable Isotopes in Water Vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dee, S. G.; Russell, J. M.; Nusbaumer, J. M.; Konecky, B. L.; Buenning, N. H.; Lee, J. E.; Noone, D.

2016-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) suggest that much of the global hydrological cycle's response to anthropogenic warming will be caused by increased lower-tropospheric water vapor concentrations and associated feedbacks. However, fingerprinting changes in the global hydrological cycle due to anthropogenic warming remains challenging. Held and Soden (2006) predicted that as lower-tropospheric water vapor increases, atmospheric circulation will weaken as climate warms to maintain the surface energy budget. Unfortunately, the strength of this feedback and the fallout for other branches of the hydrological cycle is difficult to constrain in situ or with GCMs alone. We demonstrate the utility of stable hydrogen isotope ratios in atmospheric water vapor to quantitatively trace changes in atmospheric circulation and convective mass flux in a warming world. We compare water isotope-enabled GCM experiments for control (present-day) CO2 vs. high CO2(2x, 4x) atmospheres in two GCMs, IsoGSM and iCAM5. We evaluate changes in the distribution of water vapor, vertical velocity (omega), and the stream function between these experiments in order to identify spatial patterns of circulation change over the tropical Pacific (where vertical motion is strong) and map the δD of water vapor associated with atmospheric warming. We also probe the simulations to isolate isotopic signatures associated with water vapor residence time, precipitation efficiency, divergence, and cloud physics. We show that there are robust mechanisms that moisten the troposphere and weaken convective mass flux, and that these mechanisms can be tracked using the δD of water vapor. Further, we find that these responses are most pronounced in the upper troposphere. These findings provide a framework to develop new metrics for the detection of global warming impacts to the hydrological cycle. Further, currently available satellite missions measure δD in the atmospheric boundary layer, the free atmosphere, or the total column; our study suggests that more accurate upper troposphere measurements (above 500hPa) may be needed to detect changes in convective mass flux using water vapor isotope ratios.

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth's energy imbalance.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-10-06

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15-20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40-50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible.

SST Patterns, Atmospheric Variability, and Inferred Sensitivities in the CMIP5 Model Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marvel, K.; Pincus, R.; Schmidt, G. A.

2017-12-01

An emerging consensus suggests that global mean feedbacks to increasing temperature are not constant in time. If feedbacks become more positive in the future, the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) inferred from recent observed global energy budget constraints is likely to be biased low. Time-varying feedbacks are largely tied to evolving sea-surface temperature patterns. In particular, recent anomalously cool conditions in the tropical Pacific may have triggered feedbacks that are not reproduced in equilibrium simulations where the tropical Pacific and Southern Ocean have had time to warm. Here, we use AMIP and CMIP5 historical simulations to explore the ECS that may be inferred over the recent historical period. We find that in all but one CMIP5 model, the feedbacks triggered by observed SST patterns are significantly less positive than those arising from historical simulations in which SST patterns are allowed to evolve unconstrained. However, there are substantial variations in feedbacks even when the SST pattern is held fixed, suggesting that atmospheric and land variability contribute to uncertainty in the estimates of ECS obtained from recent observations of the global energy budget.

--No Title--

Science.gov Websites

status of ENSO go to the ENSO Advisory (issued when appropriate) or the latest monthly Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. More technical information on the global patterns of abnormal precipitation and , J. Climate, 5, 577-593). A general description of a warm (ENSO) episode and its composite evolution

Uncertainty of wheat water use: Simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Projected global warming and population growth will reduce water availability for agriculture, so it is essential to increase the effective use of water to ensure future crop productivity. Quantifying future crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Th...

Seasonally contrasting responses of evapotranspiration to warming and elevated CO2 in a semiarid grassland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change is expected to alter seasonal patterns and rates of evapotranspiration (ET) in dry regions. While climate change will involve elevated CO2 and increased temperatures, independently these factors may have different impacts on ET due to their opposing effects on transpiration. We...

Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Kajihara, Kosuke

2016-01-01

Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming), whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

Sedimentary evidence for enhanced hydrological cycling in response to rapid carbon release during the early Toarcian oceanic anoxic event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izumi, Kentaro; Kemp, David B.; Itamiya, Shoma; Inui, Mutsuko

2018-01-01

A pronounced excursion in the carbon-isotope composition of biospheric carbon and coeval seawater warming during the early Toarcian (∼183 Ma) has been linked to the large-scale transfer of 12C-enriched carbon to the oceans and atmosphere. A European bias in the distribution of available data means that the precise pattern, tempo and global expression of this carbon cycle perturbation, and the associated environmental responses, remain uncertain. Here, we present a new cm-scale terrestrial-dominated carbon-isotope record through an expanded lower Toarcian section from Japan that displays a negative excursion pattern similar to marine and terrestrial carbon-isotope records documented from Europe. These new data suggest that 12C-enriched carbon was added to the biosphere in at least one rapid, millennial-scale pulse. Sedimentological analysis indicates a close association between the carbon-isotope excursion and high-energy sediment transport and enhanced fluvial discharge. Together, these data support the hypothesis that a sudden strengthening of the global hydrological cycle occurred in direct and immediate response to rapid carbon release and atmospheric warming.

Local warming: daily temperature change influences belief in global warming.

PubMed

Li, Ye; Johnson, Eric J; Zaval, Lisa

2011-04-01

Although people are quite aware of global warming, their beliefs about it may be malleable; specifically, their beliefs may be constructed in response to questions about global warming. Beliefs may reflect irrelevant but salient information, such as the current day's temperature. This replacement of a more complex, less easily accessed judgment with a simple, more accessible one is known as attribute substitution. In three studies, we asked residents of the United States and Australia to report their opinions about global warming and whether the temperature on the day of the study was warmer or cooler than usual. Respondents who thought that day was warmer than usual believed more in and had greater concern about global warming than did respondents who thought that day was colder than usual. They also donated more money to a global-warming charity if they thought that day seemed warmer than usual. We used instrumental variable regression to rule out some alternative explanations.

America’s Security Role in a Changing World: A Global Strategic Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-04-01

actually three interrelated crises: a global warming crisis, fuel crisis, and diplomatic crisis. Global warming threatens to create an environmental...which is a diplomatic crisis, particularly for the United States. Global warming is already being used as a dip- lomatic wedge issue against America...mitigating or stopping transnational threats 4 INSS Proceedings April 7–8, 2009 actors, and effects of global warming . A result of these increasing

Can Regional Climate Models Improve Warm Season Forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominguez, F.; Castro, C. L.

2009-12-01

The goal of this work is to improve warm season forecasts in the North American Monsoon Region. To do this, we are dynamically downscaling warm season CFS (Climate Forecast System) reforecasts from 1982-2005 for the contiguous U.S. using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model. CFS is the global coupled ocean-atmosphere model used by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to provide official U.S. seasonal climate forecasts. Recently, NCEP has produced a comprehensive long-term retrospective ensemble CFS reforecasts for the years 1980-2005. These reforecasts show that CFS model 1) has an ability to forecast tropical Pacific SSTs and large-scale teleconnection patterns, at least as evaluated for the winter season; 2) has greater skill in forecasting winter than summer climate; and 3) demonstrates an increase in skill when a greater number of ensembles members are used. The decrease in CFS skill during the warm season is due to the fact that the physical mechanisms of rainfall at this time are more related to mesoscale processes, such as the diurnal cycle of convection, low-level moisture transport, propagation and organization of convection, and surface moisture recycling. In general, these are poorly represented in global atmospheric models. Preliminary simulations for years with extreme summer climate conditions in the western and central U.S. (specifically 1988 and 1993) show that CFS-WRF simulations can provide a more realistic representation of convective rainfall processes. Thus a RCM can potentially add significant value in climate forecasting of the warm season provided the downscaling methodology incorporates the following: 1) spectral nudging to preserve the variability in the large scale circulation while still permitting the development of smaller-scale variability in the RCM; and 2) use of realistic soil moisture initial condition, in this case provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis. With these conditions, downscaled CFS-WRF reforecast simulations can produce realistic continental-scale patterns of warm season precipitation. This includes a reasonable representation of the North American monsoon in the southwest U.S. and northwest Mexico, which is notoriously difficult to represent in a global atmospheric model. We anticipate that this research will help lead the way toward substantially improved real time operational forecasts of North American summer climate with a RCM.

What spatial scales are believable for climate model projections of sea surface temperature?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwiatkowski, Lester; Halloran, Paul R.; Mumby, Peter J.; Stephenson, David B.

2014-09-01

Earth system models (ESMs) provide high resolution simulations of variables such as sea surface temperature (SST) that are often used in off-line biological impact models. Coral reef modellers have used such model outputs extensively to project both regional and global changes to coral growth and bleaching frequency. We assess model skill at capturing sub-regional climatologies and patterns of historical warming. This study uses an established wavelet-based spatial comparison technique to assess the skill of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 models to capture spatial SST patterns in coral regions. We show that models typically have medium to high skill at capturing climatological spatial patterns of SSTs within key coral regions, with model skill typically improving at larger spatial scales (≥4°). However models have much lower skill at modelling historical warming patters and are shown to often perform no better than chance at regional scales (e.g. Southeast Asian) and worse than chance at finer scales (<8°). Our findings suggest that output from current generation ESMs is not yet suitable for making sub-regional projections of change in coral bleaching frequency and other marine processes linked to SST warming.

Growing importance of atmospheric water demands on the hydrologcial condition of East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C. E.; Ho, C. H.; Jeong, S. J.; Park, H.

2015-12-01

As global temperature increases, enhanced exchange of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere expected to make dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. This concept is well fitted for the ocean, but oversimplified for the land. How the climate change causes the complex patterns of the continental dryness change is one of challenging questions. Here we investigate the observed dryness changes of the land surface by examining the quantitative influence of several climate parameters on the background aridity changes over East Asia, containing various climate regimes from cold-arid to warm-humid regions, using observations of 189 stations covering the period from 1961 to 2010. Overall mean aridity trend is changed from negative to positive around early 1990s. The turning of dryness trend is largely influenced by sharp increase in atmospheric water demands, regardless of the background climate. The warming induced increase in water demands is larger in warm-humid regions than in cold-arid region due to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation between air temperature and saturation vapor pressure. The results show the drying of anthropogenic warming already begins and influences on the patterns of dryness change over the land surface.

Recent changes in aquatic biota in subarctic Fennoscandia - the role of global and local environmental variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weckström, Jan; Leppänen, Jaakko; Sorvari, Sanna; Kaukolehto, Marjut; Weckström, Kaarina; Korhola, Atte

2013-04-01

The Arctic, representing a fifth of the earth's surface, is highly sensitive to the predicted future warming and it has indeed been warming up faster than most other regions. This makes the region critically important and highlights the need to investigate the earliest signals of global warming and its impacts on the arctic and subarctic aquatic ecosystems and their biota. It has been demonstrated that many Arctic freshwater ecosystems have already experienced dramatic and unpreceded regime shifts during the last ca. 150 years, primarily driven by climate warming. However, despite the indisputable impact of climate-related variables on freshwater ecosystems other, especially local-scale catchment related variables (e.g. geology, vegetation, human activities) may override the climate signal and become the primary factor in shaping the structure of aquatic ecosystems. Although many studies have contributed to an improved understanding of limnological and hydrobiological features of Artic and subarctic lakes, much information is still needed especially on the interaction between the biotic and abiotic components, i.e. on factors controlling the food web dynamics in these sensitive aquatic ecosystems. This is of special importance as these lakes are of great value in water storage, flood prevention, and maintenance of biodiversity, in addition to which they are vital resources for settlement patterns, food production, recreation, and tourism. In this study we compare the pre-industrial sediment assemblages of primary producers (diatoms and Pediastrum) and primary consumers (cladoceran and chironomids) with their modern assemblages (a top-bottom approach) from 50 subarctic Fennoscandian lakes. We will evaluate the recent regional pattern of changes in aquatic assemblages, and assess how coherent the lakes' responses are across the subarctic area. Moreover, the impact of global (e.g. climate, precipitation) and local (e.g. lake and its catchment characteristics) scale environmental changes on the aquatic biota will be compared and discussed.

Potential effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on coastal wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKee, Karen

2006-01-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere has steadily increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in preindustrial times to 381 ppm today and is predicted by some models to double within the next century. Some of the important pathways whereby changes in atmospheric CO2 may impact coastal wetlands include changes in temperature, rainfall, and hurricane intensity (fig. 1). Increases in CO2 can contribute to global warming, which may (1) accelerate sea-level rise through melting of polar ice fields and steric expansion of oceans, (2) alter rainfall patterns and salinity regimes, and (3) change the intensity and frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes. Sea-level rise combined with changes in storm activity may affect erosion and sedimentation rates and patterns in coastal wetlands and maintenance of soil elevations.Feedback loops between plant growth and hydroedaphic conditions also contribute to maintenance of marsh elevations through accumulation of organic matter. Although increasing CO2 concentration may contribute to global warming and climate changes, it may also have a direct impact on plant growth and development by stimulating photosynthesis or improving water use efficiency. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey are examining responses of wetland plants to elevated CO2 concentration and other factors. This research will lead to a better understanding of future changes in marsh species composition, successional rates and patterns, ecological functioning, and vulnerability to sea-level rise and other global change factors.

Trends in global warming and evolution of nucleoproteins from influenza A viruses since 1918.

PubMed

Yan, S; Wu, G

2010-12-01

Global warming affects not only the environment where we live, but also all living species to different degree, including influenza A virus. We recently conducted several studies on the possible impact of global warming on the protein families of influenza A virus. More studies are needed in order to have a full picture of the impact of global warming on living organisms, especially its effect on viruses. In this study, we correlate trends in global warming with evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus and then analyse the trends with respect to northern/southern hemispheres, virus subtypes and sampling species. The results suggest that global warming may have an impact on the evolution of the nucleoprotein from influenza A virus. © 2010 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Macro-Climatic Distribution Limits Show Both Niche Expansion and Niche Specialization among C4 Panicoids.

PubMed

Aagesen, Lone; Biganzoli, Fernando; Bena, Julia; Godoy-Bürki, Ana C; Reinheimer, Renata; Zuloaga, Fernando O

2016-01-01

Grasses are ancestrally tropical understory species whose current dominance in warm open habitats is linked to the evolution of C4 photosynthesis. C4 grasses maintain high rates of photosynthesis in warm and water stressed environments, and the syndrome is considered to induce niche shifts into these habitats while adaptation to cold ones may be compromised. Global biogeographic analyses of C4 grasses have, however, concentrated on diversity patterns, while paying little attention to distributional limits. Using phylogenetic contrast analyses, we compared macro-climatic distribution limits among ~1300 grasses from the subfamily Panicoideae, which includes 4/5 of the known photosynthetic transitions in grasses. We explored whether evolution of C4 photosynthesis correlates with niche expansions, niche changes, or stasis at subfamily level and within the two tribes Paniceae and Paspaleae. We compared the climatic extremes of growing season temperatures, aridity, and mean temperatures of the coldest months. We found support for all the known biogeographic distribution patterns of C4 species, these patterns were, however, formed both by niche expansion and niche changes. The only ubiquitous response to a change in the photosynthetic pathway within Panicoideae was a niche expansion of the C4 species into regions with higher growing season temperatures, but without a withdrawal from the inherited climate niche. Other patterns varied among the tribes, as macro-climatic niche evolution in the American tribe Paspaleae differed from the pattern supported in the globally distributed tribe Paniceae and at family level.

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming.

PubMed

Gunderson, Alex R; Stillman, Jonathon H

2015-06-07

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the 'Bogert effect'. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Plasticity in thermal tolerance has limited potential to buffer ectotherms from global warming

PubMed Central

Gunderson, Alex R.; Stillman, Jonathon H.

2015-01-01

Global warming is increasing the overheating risk for many organisms, though the potential for plasticity in thermal tolerance to mitigate this risk is largely unknown. In part, this shortcoming stems from a lack of knowledge about global and taxonomic patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity. To address this critical issue, we test leading hypotheses for broad-scale variation in ectotherm tolerance plasticity using a dataset that includes vertebrate and invertebrate taxa from terrestrial, freshwater and marine habitats. Contrary to expectation, plasticity in heat tolerance was unrelated to latitude or thermal seasonality. However, plasticity in cold tolerance is associated with thermal seasonality in some habitat types. In addition, aquatic taxa have approximately twice the plasticity of terrestrial taxa. Based on the observed patterns of variation in tolerance plasticity, we propose that limited potential for behavioural plasticity (i.e. behavioural thermoregulation) favours the evolution of greater plasticity in physiological traits, consistent with the ‘Bogert effect’. Finally, we find that all ectotherms have relatively low acclimation in thermal tolerance and demonstrate that overheating risk will be minimally reduced by acclimation in even the most plastic groups. Our analysis indicates that behavioural and evolutionary mechanisms will be critical in allowing ectotherms to buffer themselves from extreme temperatures. PMID:25994676

Altered nutrition during hot droughts will impair forest functions in the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossiord, C.; Gessler, A.; Reed, S.; Dickman, L. T.; Collins, A.; Schönbeck, L.; Sevanto, S.; Vilagrosa, A.; McDowell, N. G.

2017-12-01

Rising greenhouse gas emissions will increase atmospheric temperature globally and alter hydrological cycles resulting in more extreme and recurrent droughts in the coming century. Nutrition is a key component affecting the vulnerability of forests to extreme climate. Models typically assume that global warming will enhance nitrogen cycling in terrestrial ecosystems and lead to improved plant functions. Drought on the other hand is expected to weaken the same processes, leading to a clear conflict and inability to predict how nutrition and plant functions will be impacted by a simultaneously warming and drying climate. We used a unique setup consisting of long-term manipulation of climate on mature trees to examine how individual vs. combined warming and drought would alter soil N cycling and tree functions. The site consists of the longest record of tree responses to experimental warming and precipitation reduction in natural conditions.Changes in soil nitrogen cycling (e.g. microbial activity, nitrification and ammonification rates, N concentration) occurred in response to the treatments. In addition, temperature rise and precipitation reduction altered the ability of trees to take up nitrogen and modified nitrogen allocation patterns between aboveground and belowground compartments. Although no additive effect of warming and drying were found for the two studied species, contrasting responses to warming and droughts were observed between the two functional types. Overall, our results show that higher temperature and reduced precipitation will alter the nutrition of forest ecosystems in the future with potentially large consequences for forest functions, structure and biodiversity.

Simulated global change: contrasting short and medium term growth and reproductive responses of a common alpine/Arctic cushion plant to experimental warming and nutrient enhancement.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Little, Chelsea J

2014-01-01

Cushion plants are important components of alpine and Arctic plant communities around the world. They fulfill important roles as facilitators, nurse plants and foundation species across trophic levels for vascular plants, arthropods and soil microorganisms, the importance of these functions increasing with the relative severity of the environment. Here we report results from one of the few experimental studies simulating global change impacts on cushion plants; a factorial experiment with warming and nutrient enhancement that was applied to an alpine population of the common nurse plant, Silene acaulis, in sub-arctic Sweden. Experimental perturbations had significant short-term impacts on both stem elongation and leaf length. S. acaulis responded quickly by increasing stem elongation and (to a lesser extent) leaf length in the warming, nutrient, and the combined warming and nutrient enhancements. Cover and biomass also initially increased in response to the perturbations. However, after the initial positive short-term responses, S. acaulis cover declined in the manipulations, with the nutrient and combined warming and nutrient treatments having largest negative impact. No clear patterns were found for fruit production. Our results show that S. acaulis living in harsh environments has potential to react quickly when experiencing years with favorable conditions, and is more responsive to nutrient enhancement than to warming in terms of vegetative growth. While these conditions have an initial positive impact, populations experiencing longer-term increased nutrient levels will likely be negatively affected.

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

PubMed

Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of global warming. A high proportion of respondents reported that they perceived that global warming would worsen, were concerned that it would affect them and their families and had already made changes in their lives because of it. These findings support a readiness in the population to deal with global warming. Future research and programs are needed to investigate population-level strategies for future action. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recent climate extremes associated with the West Pacific Warming Mode

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Chris; Hoell, Andrew

2017-01-01

Here we analyze empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of observations and a 30 member ensemble of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, and suggest that precipitation declines in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) and the northern Middle East/Southwestern Asia (NME/SWE: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia north of 25°N, Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon) may be interpreted as an interaction between La Niña-like decadal variability and the West Pacific Warming Mode (WPWM). While they exhibit different SST patterns, warming of the Pacific cold tongue (ENSO) and warming of the western Pacific (WPWM) produce similar warm pool diabatic forcing, Walker circulation anomalies, and terrestrial teleconnections. CESM1 SST EOFs indicate that both La Niña-like WPWM warming and El Niño-like east Pacific warming will be produced by climate change. The temporal frequency of these changes, however, are distinct. WPWM varies decadally, while ENSO is dominated by interannual variability. Future WPWM and ENSO warming may manifest as a tendency toward warm West Pacific SST, punctuated by extreme warm East Pacific events. WPWM EOFs from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation also identify dramatic WPWM-related declines in the Greater Horn of Africa and NME/SWE.

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 20 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

40 CFR Table A-1 to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials A Table A-1... A-1 to Subpart A of Part 98—Global Warming Potentials [100-Year Time Horizon] Name CAS No. Chemical formula Global warming potential(100 yr.) Carbon dioxide 124-38-9 CO2 1 Methane 74-82-8 CH4 21 Nitrous...

The Interrelationship Between Temperature Changes in the Free Atmosphere and Sea Surface Temperature Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Reginald E.; Wu, Zhong-Xiang

1992-03-01

Fields of sea surface temperature anomalies from the Global Ocean Surface Temperature Atlas (GOSTA) and microwave sounding measurements (MSU) of temperature in the troposphere are examined separately and together for the 1979-1988 period. Global correlation patterns of both sets of fields are investigated at a range of leads and lags up to 6 months and exhibit a wide range of correlation structure. There are regions, such as the tropical eastern Pacific, where sea surface temperature anomalies persist for several months and are associated with local air temperature anomalies; in this particular example, about 0.7°C air temperature change is associated with a 1.0°C sea temperature change. By contrast, some ocean regions and many atmospheric regions, mostly in middle and high latitude, show only local spatial correlations that disappear completely in a month or two. The most persistent and extensive spatial correlation patterns are quite different for the sea and the air. In the sea the "butterfly" pattern of the Pacific is the most important and reverses sign between the eastern equatorial Pacific and the western Pacific and subtropics. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies associated with this pattern are similar to the correlation pattern. For the atmosphere the main correlation pattern is an equatorial belt with no sign changes in the tropics; this pattern is linked to the oceanic El Niño mode. In the warm phase the temperature anomalies show peak values on both sides of the equator in the eastern and central Pacific. Based mainly on the results from the spatial patterns, certain regions are selected for intercomparison of time series. In the tropical eastern Pacific the sea leads the air by about a month while in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio regions the sequence is reversed.

Mechanistic Lake Modeling to Understand and Predict Heterogeneous Responses to Climate Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, J. S.; Winslow, L. A.; Rose, K. C.; Hansen, G. J.

2016-12-01

Substantial warming has been documented for of hundreds globally distributed lakes, with likely impacts on ecosystem processes. Despite a clear pattern of widespread warming, thermal responses of individual lakes to climate change are often heterogeneous, with the warming rates of neighboring lakes varying across depths and among seasons. We aggregated temperature observations and parameterized mechanistic models for 9,000 lakes in the U.S. states of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan to examine broad-scale lake warming trends and among-lake diversity. Daily lake temperature profiles and ice-cover dynamics were simulated using the General Lake Model for the contemporary period (1979-2015) using drivers from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) and for contemporary and future periods (1980-2100) using downscaled data from six global circulation models driven by the Representative Climate Pathway 8.5 scenario. For the contemporary period, modeled vs observed summer mean surface temperatures had a root mean squared error of 0.98°C with modeled warming trends similar to observed trends. Future simulations under the extreme 8.5 scenario predicted a median lake summer surface warming rate of 0.57°C/decade until mid-century, with slower rates in the later half of the 21st century (0.35°C/decade). Modeling scenarios and analysis of field data suggest that the lake-specific properties of size, water clarity, and depth are strong controls on the sensitivity of lakes to climate change. For example, a simulated 1% annual decline in water clarity was sufficient to override the effects of climate warming on whole lake water temperatures in some - but not all - study lakes. Understanding heterogeneous lake responses to climate variability can help identify lake-specific features that influence resilience to climate change.

Application of wavelet analysis in determining the periodicity of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xiao

2018-04-01

In the last two decades of the last century, the global average temperature has risen by 0.48 ° C over 100 years ago. Since then, global warming has become a hot topic. Global warming will have complex and potential impacts on humans and the Earth. However, the negative impacts far outweigh the positive impacts. The most obvious external manifestation of global warming is temperature. Therefore, this study uses wavelet analysis study the characteristics of temperature time series, solve the periodicity of the sequence, find out the trend of temperature change and predict the extent of global warming in the future, so as to take the necessary precautionary measures.

Magnitude and pattern of Arctic warming governed by the seasonality of radiative forcing.

PubMed

Bintanja, R; Krikken, F

2016-12-02

Observed and projected climate warming is strongest in the Arctic regions, peaking in autumn/winter. Attempts to explain this feature have focused primarily on identifying the associated climate feedbacks, particularly the ice-albedo and lapse-rate feedbacks. Here we use a state-of-the-art global climate model in idealized seasonal forcing simulations to show that Arctic warming (especially in winter) and sea ice decline are particularly sensitive to radiative forcing in spring, during which the energy is effectively 'absorbed' by the ocean (through sea ice melt and ocean warming, amplified by the ice-albedo feedback) and consequently released to the lower atmosphere in autumn and winter, mainly along the sea ice periphery. In contrast, winter radiative forcing causes a more uniform response centered over the Arctic Ocean. This finding suggests that intermodel differences in simulated Arctic (winter) warming can to a considerable degree be attributed to model uncertainties in Arctic radiative fluxes, which peak in summer.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

PubMed

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-08-20

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming

PubMed Central

Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U.; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A.; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

2013-01-01

Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C−1 and 1.2 m °C−1 of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C−1 within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales. PMID:23858443

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, David J.; Fuchs, Željka

2018-04-01

A minimal model of the interaction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) with the Indo-Pacific warm pool is presented. This model is based on the linear superposition of the flow associated with a highly simplified treatment of the MJO plus the flow induced by the warm pool itself. Both of these components parameterize rainfall as proportional to the column water vapor, which in turn is governed by a linearized moisture equation in which WISHE (wind induced surface heat exchange) plays a governing role. The MJO component has maximum growth rate for planetary wavenumber 1 and is equatorially trapped with purely zonal winds. The warm pool component exhibits a complex flow pattern, differing significantly from the classical Gill model as a result of the mean easterly flow. The combination of the two produce a flow that reproduces many aspects of the observed global flow associated with the MJO.

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO 2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming: OCEAN HEAT AND POLAR WARMING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2-doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2-doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high-latitudes warm while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar mid-troposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at highmore » latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.« less

Indices of climate change based on patterns from CMIP5 models, and the range of projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watterson, I. G.

2018-05-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other variables simulated by 40 current climate models for the 21st century are approximated as the product of the global mean warming and a spatial pattern of scaled changes. These fields of standardized change contain consistent features of simulated change, such as larger warming over land and increased high-latitude precipitation. However, they also differ across the ensemble, with standard deviations exceeding 0.2 for temperature over most continents, and 6% per degree for tropical precipitation. These variations are found to correlate, often strongly, with indices based on those of modes of interannual variability. Annular mode indices correlate, across the 40 models, with regional pressure changes and seasonal rainfall changes, particularly in South America and Europe. Equatorial ocean warming rates link to widespread anomalies, similarly to ENSO. A Pacific-Indian Dipole (PID) index representing the gradient in warming across the maritime continent is correlated with Australian rainfall with coefficient r of - 0.8. The component of equatorial warming orthogonal to this index, denoted EQN, has strong links to temperature and rainfall in Africa and the Americas. It is proposed that these indices and their associated patterns might be termed "modes of climate change". This is supported by an analysis of empirical orthogonal functions for the ensemble of standardized fields. Can such indices be used to help constrain projections? The relative similarity of the PID and EQN values of change, from models that have more skilful simulation of the present climate tropical pressure fields, provides a basis for this.

Global Warming: Understanding and Teaching the Forecast. Part A The Greenhouse Effect.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrews, Bill

1993-01-01

Provides information necessary for an interdisciplinary analysis of the greenhouse effect, enhanced greenhouse effect, global warming, global climate change, greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, and scientific study of global warming for students grades 4-12. Several activity ideas accompany the information. (LZ)

Competition between global warming and an abrupt collapse of the AMOC in Earth’s energy imbalance

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren

2015-01-01

A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) leads to global cooling through fast feedbacks that selectively amplify the response in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). How such cooling competes with global warming has long been a topic for speculation, but was never addressed using a climate model. Here it is shown that global cooling due to a collapsing AMOC obliterates global warming for a period of 15–20 years. Thereafter, the global mean temperature trend is reversed and becomes similar to a simulation without an AMOC collapse. The resulting surface warming hiatus lasts for 40–50 years. Global warming and AMOC-induced NH cooling are governed by similar feedbacks, giving rise to a global net radiative imbalance of similar sign, although the former is associated with surface warming, the latter with cooling. Their footprints in outgoing longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation are very distinct, making attribution possible. PMID:26437599

Changes in crop yields and their variability at different levels of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostberg, Sebastian; Schewe, Jacob; Childers, Katelin; Frieler, Katja

2018-05-01

An assessment of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming is crucial to inform the policy discussion about mitigation targets, as well as for the economic evaluation of climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models often use global mean temperature change (ΔGMT) as a sole measure of climate change and, therefore, need to describe impacts as a function of ΔGMT. There is already a well-established framework for the scalability of regional temperature and precipitation changes with ΔGMT. It is less clear to what extent more complex biological or physiological impacts such as crop yield changes can also be described in terms of ΔGMT, even though such impacts may often be more directly relevant for human livelihoods than changes in the physical climate. Here we show that crop yield projections can indeed be described in terms of ΔGMT to a large extent, allowing for a fast estimation of crop yield changes for emissions scenarios not originally covered by climate and crop model projections. We use an ensemble of global gridded crop model simulations for the four major staple crops to show that the scenario dependence is a minor component of the overall variance of projected yield changes at different levels of ΔGMT. In contrast, the variance is dominated by the spread across crop models. Varying CO2 concentrations are shown to explain only a minor component of crop yield variability at different levels of global warming. In addition, we find that the variability in crop yields is expected to increase with increasing warming in many world regions. We provide, for each crop model, geographical patterns of mean yield changes that allow for a simplified description of yield changes under arbitrary pathways of global mean temperature and CO2 changes, without the need for additional climate and crop model simulations.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

PubMed Central

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-01-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. PMID:29610383

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Planning for Climate Change: What Should the Air Force Do

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-26

cap that contains a patch depicting the world with a melting ice cube and the words ― Global Warming - It‘s Not Cool‖ embroidered on it. As I have...important to distinguish between these terms and the often used term ‗ global warming .‘ In a strict sense, global warming is defined as ―an average...longer).‖ 10 In common usage and popular discussion the terms ‗ global warming ‘ and ‗ global climate change‘ are often used interchangeably. The

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 17 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

40 CFR Appendix I to Subpart A of... - Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the Absolute GWP for the Adopted Carbon...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis..., App. I Appendix I to Subpart A of Part 82—Global Warming Potentials (Mass Basis), Referenced to the... formula Global warming potential (time horizon) 20 years 100 years 500 years CFC-11 CFCl3 5000 4000 1400...

Grade 7 students' normative decision making in science learning about global warming through science technology and society (STS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luengam, Piyanuch; Tupsai, Jiraporn; Yuenyong, Chokchai

2018-01-01

This study reported Grade 7 students' normative decision making in teaching and learning about global warming through science technology and society (STS) approach. The participants were 43 Grade 7 students in Sungkom, Nongkhai, Thailand. The teaching and learning about global warming through STS approach had carried out for 5 weeks. The global warming unit through STS approach was developed based on framework of Yuenyong (2006) that consisted of five stages including (1) identification of social issues, (2) identification of potential solutions, (3) need for knowledge, (4) decision-making, and (5) socialization stage. Students' normative decision making was collected during their learning by questionnaire, participant observation, and students' tasks. Students' normative decision making were analyzed from both pre-and post-intervention and students' ideas during the intervention. The aspects of normative include influences of global warming on technology and society; influences of values, culture, and society on global warming; and influences of technology on global warming. The findings revealed that students have chance to learn science concerning with the relationship between science, technology, and society through their giving reasons about issues related to global warming. The paper will discuss implications of these for science teaching and learning through STS in Thailand.

Early 20th-century Arctic warming intensified by Pacific and Atlantic multidecadal variability

PubMed Central

Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Mukougawa, Hitoshi

2017-01-01

With amplified warming and record sea ice loss, the Arctic is the canary of global warming. The historical Arctic warming is poorly understood, limiting our confidence in model projections. Specifically, Arctic surface air temperature increased rapidly over the early 20th century, at rates comparable to those of recent decades despite much weaker greenhouse gas forcing. Here, we show that the concurrent phase shift of Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variability modes is the major driver for the rapid early 20th-century Arctic warming. Atmospheric model simulations successfully reproduce the early Arctic warming when the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is properly prescribed. The early 20th-century Arctic warming is associated with positive SST anomalies over the tropical and North Atlantic and a Pacific SST pattern reminiscent of the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Atmospheric circulation changes are important for the early 20th-century Arctic warming. The equatorial Pacific warming deepens the Aleutian low, advecting warm air into the North American Arctic. The extratropical North Atlantic and North Pacific SST warming strengthens surface westerly winds over northern Eurasia, intensifying the warming there. Coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations support the constructive intensification of Arctic warming by a concurrent, negative-to-positive phase shift of the Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal modes. Our results aid attributing the historical Arctic warming and thereby constrain the amplified warming projected for this important region. PMID:28559341

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-01-01

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent. PMID:28439005

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S; Horton, Daniel E; Swain, Daniel L; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael; Rajaratnam, Bala

2017-05-09

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Singh, Deepti; Mankin, Justin S.; Horton, Daniel E.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle; Charland, Allison; Liu, Yunjie; Haugen, Matz; Tsiang, Michael;

A USCLVAR Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies and Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks on Drought

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2009-01-01

The USCLIVAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include, What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This talk provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models. It is hoped that these early results will serve to stimulate further analysis of these simulations, as well as suggest new research on the physical mechanisms contributing to hydroclimatic variability and change throughout the world.

Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot

PubMed Central

Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi

2016-01-01

Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world’s largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10–20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased—particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for fishes than the consequences of global warming. Limits upon dam construction should therefore be a priority action for conserving fish biodiversity in the Indo-Burma hotspot. This would minimize synergistic impacts attributable to dams plus global warming, and help ensure the continued provision of ecosystem services represented by the Lower Mekong fishery. PMID:27532150

Impacts of Dams and Global Warming on Fish Biodiversity in the Indo-Burma Hotspot.

PubMed

Kano, Yuichi; Dudgeon, David; Nam, So; Samejima, Hiromitsu; Watanabe, Katsutoshi; Grudpan, Chaiwut; Grudpan, Jarungjit; Magtoon, Wichan; Musikasinthorn, Prachya; Nguyen, Phuong Thanh; Praxaysonbath, Bounthob; Sato, Tomoyuki; Shibukawa, Koichi; Shimatani, Yukihiro; Suvarnaraksha, Apinun; Tanaka, Wataru; Thach, Phanara; Tran, Dac Dinh; Yamashita, Tomomi; Utsugi, Kenzo

2016-01-01

Both hydropower dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity. While the extent of global warming may be reduced by a shift towards energy generation by large dams in order to reduce fossil-fuel use, such dams profoundly modify riverine habitats. Furthermore, the threats posed by dams and global warming will interact: for example, dams constrain range adjustments by fishes that might compensate for warming temperatures. Evaluation of their combined or synergistic effects is thus essential for adequate assessment of the consequences of planned water-resource developments. We made projections of the responses of 363 fish species within the Indo-Burma global biodiversity hotspot to the separate and joint impacts of dams and global warming. The hotspot encompasses the Lower Mekong Basin, which is the world's largest freshwater capture fishery. Projections for 81 dam-building scenarios revealed progressive impacts upon projected species richness, habitable area, and the proportion of threatened species as generating capacity increased. Projections from 126 global-warming scenarios included a rise in species richness, a reduction in habitable area, and an increase in the proportion of threatened species; however, there was substantial variation in the extent of these changes among warming projections. Projections from scenarios that combined the effects of dams and global warming were derived either by simply adding the two threats, or by combining them in a synergistic manner that took account of the likelihood that habitat shifts under global warming would be constrained by river fragmentation. Impacts on fish diversity under the synergistic projections were 10-20% higher than those attributable to additive scenarios, and were exacerbated as generating capacity increased-particularly if CO2 emissions remained high. The impacts of dams, especially those on river mainstreams, are likely to be greater, more predictable and more immediately pressing for fishes than the consequences of global warming. Limits upon dam construction should therefore be a priority action for conserving fish biodiversity in the Indo-Burma hotspot. This would minimize synergistic impacts attributable to dams plus global warming, and help ensure the continued provision of ecosystem services represented by the Lower Mekong fishery.

Breeding for sustainable production in a changing climate – understanding the physiological basis of genetic by environmental interactions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Abiotic stresses (drought, cold, heat, excess, water, salinity) result in loses in yield and quality of crops. In addition, these stresses limit the areas that can be cultivated because of yield instability and crop loss. Global warming models predict erratic weather patterns making the impact of th...

More rain, more drought: will the forests thrive or die?

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

1999-01-01

Global warming: Is it real or not? Ron Neilson, PNW Research Station bioclimatologist, has been studying the phenomena for about 25 years. He also is the lead author on one of three models in the world designed to track climate-driven vegetation change patterns on the planet.Neilson's findings, featured in this issue of "Science Findings," may...

Altitudinal genetic variation among Pinus oocarpa populations in Michoacan, Mexico: implications for seed zoning, conservation, tree breeding and global warming

Treesearch

Cuauhtemoc Saenz-Romero; R. Ricardo Guzman-Reyna; Gerald E. Rehfeldt

2006-01-01

Pinus oocarpa has a large natural distribution in the sub-tropical forests of Mexico. Populations, however, are rapidly disappearing particularly in the Michoacan State as native forests are converted to avocado (Persea sp.) orchards.We investigated the patterning of genetic variation among P. oocarpa populations...

Divergent patterns of experimental and model derived variables of tundra ecosystem carbon exchange in response to arctic warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaedel, C.; Koven, C.; Celis, G.; Hutchings, J.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mauritz, M.; Pegoraro, E.; Salmon, V. G.; Taylor, M.; Wieder, W. R.; Schuur, E.

2017-12-01

Warming over the Arctic in the last decades has been twice as high as for the rest of the globe and has exposed large amounts of organic carbon to microbial decomposition in permafrost ecosystems. Continued warming and associated changes in soil moisture conditions not only lead to enhanced microbial decomposition from permafrost soil but also enhanced plant carbon uptake. Both processes impact the overall contribution of permafrost carbon dynamics to the global carbon cycle, yet field and modeling studies show large uncertainties in regard to both uptake and release mechanisms. Here, we compare variables associated with ecosystem carbon exchange (GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; and NEE: net ecosystem exchange) from eight years of experimental soil warming in moist acidic tundra with the same variables derived from an experimental model (Community Land Model version 4.5: CLM4.5) that simulates the same degree of arctic warming. While soil temperatures and thaw depths exhibited comparable increases with warming between field and model variables, carbon exchange related parameters showed divergent patterns. In the field non-linear responses to experimentally induced permafrost thaw were observed in GPP, Reco, and NEE. Indirect effects of continued soil warming and thaw created changes in soil moisture conditions causing ground surface subsidence and suppressing ecosystem carbon exchange over time. In contrast, the model predicted linear increases in GPP, Reco, and NEE with every year of warming turning the ecosystem into a net annual carbon sink. The field experiment revealed the importance of hydrology in carbon flux responses to permafrost thaw, a complexity that the model may fail to predict. Further parameterization of variables that drive GPP, Reco, and NEE in the model will help to inform and refine future model development.

Assessing water quality of the Chesapeake Bay by the impact of sea level rise and warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P.; Linker, L.; Wang, H.; Bhatt, G.; Yactayo, G.; Hinson, K.; Tian, R.

2017-08-01

The influence of sea level rise and warming on circulation and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay under projected climate conditions in 2050 were estimated by computer simulation. Four estuarine circulation scenarios in the estuary were run using the same watershed load in 1991-2000 period. They are, 1) the Base Scenario, which represents the current climate condition, 2) a Sea Level Rise Scenario, 3) a Warming Scenario, and 4) a combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario. With a 1.6-1.9°C increase in monthly air temperatures in the Warming Scenario, water temperature in the Bay is estimated to increase by 0.8-1°C. Summer average anoxic volume is estimated to increase 1.4 percent compared to the Base Scenario, because of an increase in algal blooms in the spring and summer, promotion of oxygen consumptive processes, and an increase of stratification. However, a 0.5-meter Sea Level Rise Scenario results in a 12 percent reduction of anoxic volume. This is mainly due to increased estuarine circulation that promotes oxygen-rich sea water intrusion in lower layers. The combined Sea Level Rise and Warming Scenario results in a 10.8 percent reduction of anoxic volume. Global warming increases precipitation and consequently increases nutrient loads from the watershed by approximately 5-7 percent. A scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and current estuarine circulation patterns yielded a 19 percent increase in summer anoxic volume, while a scenario that used a 10 percent increase in watershed loads and modified estuarine circulation patterns by the aforementioned sea level rise and warming yielded a 6 percent increase in summer anoxic volume. Impacts on phytoplankton, sediments, and water clarity were also analysed.

Global Warming And Meltwater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bratu, S.

2012-04-01

In order to find new approaches and new ideas for my students to appreciate the importance of science in their daily life, I proposed a theme for them to debate. They had to search for global warming information and illustrations in the media, and discuss the articles they found in the classroom. This task inspired them to search for new information about this important and timely theme in science. I informed my students that all the best information about global warming and meltwater they found would be used in a poster that would help us to update the knowledge base of the Physics laboratory. I guided them to choose the most eloquent images and significant information. Searching and working to create this poster, the students arrived to better appreciate the importance of science in their daily life and to critically evaluate scientific information transmitted via the media. In the poster we created, one can find images, photos and diagrams and some interesting information: Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of the Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected evolution. In the last 100 years, the Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 °C with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuel. They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C for the lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C for the highest predictions. An increase in global temperature will cause sea levels to rise and will change the amount and pattern of precipitation, and potentially result in expansion of subtropical deserts. Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic and would be associated with continuing decrease of glaciers, permafrost and sea ice. Other likely effects of the warming include more frequent occurrences of extreme weather events including heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall events, species extinctions due to shifting temperature regimes, and changes in agricultural yields. Meltwater is the water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice and ice shelves in the oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reduced. In a report published in June 2007, the United Nations Environment Program estimated that global warming could lead to 40% of the world's population being affected by the loss of glaciers, snow and the associated meltwater in Asia. This is one of many activities of the physics laboratory that the students of our high school are involved in.

Weather it's Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bostrom, A.; Lashof, D.

2004-12-01

For almost two decades both national polls and in-depth studies of global warming perceptions have shown that people commonly conflate weather and global climate change. Not only are current weather events such as anecdotal heat waves, droughts or cold spells treated as evidence for or against global warming, but weather changes such as warmer weather and increased storm intensity and frequency are the consequences most likely to come to mind. Distinguishing weather from climate remains a challenge for many. This weather 'framing' of global warming may inhibit behavioral and policy change in several ways. Weather is understood as natural, on an immense scale that makes controlling it difficult to conceive. Further, these attributes contribute to perceptions that global warming, like weather, is uncontrollable. This talk presents an analysis of data from public opinion polls, focus groups, and cognitive studies regarding people's mental models of and 'frames' for global warming and climate change, and the role weather plays in these. This research suggests that priming people with a model of global warming as being caused by a "thickening blanket of carbon dioxide" that "traps heat" in the atmosphere solves some of these communications problems and makes it more likely that people will support policies to address global warming.

Decomposition of recalcitrant carbon under experimental warming in boreal forest

PubMed Central

Allison, Steven D.; Treseder, Kathleen K.

2017-01-01

Over the long term, soil carbon (C) storage is partly determined by decomposition rate of carbon that is slow to decompose (i.e., recalcitrant C). According to thermodynamic theory, decomposition rates of recalcitrant C might differ from those of non-recalcitrant C in their sensitivities to global warming. We decomposed leaf litter in a warming experiment in Alaskan boreal forest, and measured mass loss of recalcitrant C (lignin) vs. non-recalcitrant C (cellulose, hemicellulose, and sugars) throughout 16 months. We found that these C fractions responded differently to warming. Specifically, after one year of decomposition, the ratio of recalcitrant C to non-recalcitrant C remaining in litter declined in the warmed plots compared to control. Consistent with this pattern, potential activities of enzymes targeting recalcitrant C increased with warming, relative to those targeting non-recalcitrant C. Even so, mass loss of individual C fractions showed that non-recalcitrant C is preferentially decomposed under control conditions whereas recalcitrant C losses remain unchanged between control and warmed plots. Moreover, overall mass loss was greater under control conditions. Our results imply that direct warming effects, as well as indirect warming effects (e.g. drying), may serve to maintain decomposition rates of recalcitrant C compared to non-recalcitrant C despite negative effects on overall decomposition. PMID:28622366

[Predicting the impact of global warming on the geographical distribution pattern of Quercus variabilis in China].

PubMed

Li, Yao; Zhang, Xing-wang; Fang, Yan-ming

2014-12-01

The geographical distribution of Quercus variabilis in China with its climate characteristics was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS which was also used to estimate the response of future potential distribution to global warming by Bioclim and Domain models. Analysis results showed the geographical distribution of Q. variabilis could be divided into 7 subregions: Henduan Mountains, Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, North China, East China, Liaodong-Shandong Peninsula, Taiwan Island, and Qinling-Daba Mountains. These subregions are across 7 temperature zones, 2 moisture regions and 17 climatic subregions, including 8 climate types. The modern abundance center of Q. variabilis is Qinling, Daba and Funiu mountains. The condition of mean annual temperature 7.5-19.8 degrees C annual precipitation 471-1511 mm, is suitable for Q. variabilis. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC values), of Domain and Boiclim models were 0.910, 0.779; the former predicted that the potential regions of high suitability for Q. variabilis are Qinling, Daba, Funiu, Tongbai, and Dabie mountains, eastern and western Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, hills of southern Jiangsu and Anhui, part of the mountains in North China. Global warming might lead to the shrinking in suitable region and retreating from the south for Q. variabilis.

Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions

PubMed Central

Beaumont, Linda J.; Pitman, Andrew; Perkins, Sarah; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Yoccoz, Nigel G.; Thuiller, Wilfried

2011-01-01

The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The “Global 200” comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199–224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961–1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961–1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100. PMID:21262825

Global biogeography and ecology of body size in birds.

PubMed

Olson, Valérie A; Davies, Richard G; Orme, C David L; Thomas, Gavin H; Meiri, Shai; Blackburn, Tim M; Gaston, Kevin J; Owens, Ian P F; Bennett, Peter M

2009-03-01

In 1847, Karl Bergmann proposed that temperature gradients are the key to understanding geographic variation in the body sizes of warm-blooded animals. Yet both the geographic patterns of body-size variation and their underlying mechanisms remain controversial. Here, we conduct the first assemblage-level global examination of 'Bergmann's rule' within an entire animal class. We generate global maps of avian body size and demonstrate a general pattern of larger body sizes at high latitudes, conforming to Bergmann's rule. We also show, however, that median body size within assemblages is systematically large on islands and small in species-rich areas. Similarly, while spatial models show that temperature is the single strongest environmental correlate of body size, there are secondary correlations with resource availability and a strong pattern of decreasing body size with increasing species richness. Finally, our results suggest that geographic patterns of body size are caused both by adaptation within lineages, as invoked by Bergmann, and by taxonomic turnover among lineages. Taken together, these results indicate that while Bergmann's prediction based on physiological scaling is remarkably accurate, it is far from the full picture. Global patterns of body size in avian assemblages are driven by interactions between the physiological demands of the environment, resource availability, species richness and taxonomic turnover among lineages.

Aquarius Whole Range Calibration: Celestial Sky, Ocean, and Land Targets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dinnat, Emmanuel P.; Le Vine, David M.; Bindlish, Rajat; Piepmeier, Jeffrey R.; Brown, Shannon T.

2014-01-01

Aquarius is a spaceborne instrument that uses L-band radiometers to monitor sea surface salinity globally. Other applications of its data over land and the cryosphere are being developed. Combining its measurements with existing and upcoming L-band sensors will allow for long term studies. For that purpose, the radiometers calibration is critical. Aquarius measurements are currently calibrated over the oceans. They have been found too cold at the low end (celestial sky) of the brightness temperature scale, and too warm at the warm end (land and ice). We assess the impact of the antenna pattern model on the biases and propose a correction. We re-calibrate Aquarius measurements using the corrected antenna pattern and measurements over the Sky and oceans. The performances of the new calibration are evaluated using measurements over well instrument land sites.

Decadal evolution of the surface energy budget during the fast warming and global warming hiatus periods in the ERA-interim

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiaoming; Sejas, Sergio A.; Cai, Ming; Taylor, Patrick C.; Deng, Yi; Yang, Song

2018-05-01

The global-mean surface temperature has experienced a rapid warming from the 1980s to early-2000s but a muted warming since, referred to as the global warming hiatus in the literature. Decadal changes in deep ocean heat uptake are thought to primarily account for the rapid warming and subsequent slowdown. Here, we examine the role of ocean heat uptake in establishing the fast warming and warming hiatus periods in the ERA-Interim through a decomposition of the global-mean surface energy budget. We find the increase of carbon dioxide alone yields a nearly steady increase of the downward longwave radiation at the surface from the 1980s to the present, but neither accounts for the fast warming nor warming hiatus periods. During the global warming hiatus period, the transfer of latent heat energy from the ocean to atmosphere increases and the total downward radiative energy flux to the surface decreases due to a reduction of solar absorption caused primarily by an increase of clouds. The reduction of radiative energy into the ocean and the surface latent heat flux increase cause the ocean heat uptake to decrease and thus contribute to the slowdown of the global-mean surface warming. Our analysis also finds that in addition to a reduction of deep ocean heat uptake, the fast warming period is also driven by enhanced solar absorption due predominantly to a decrease of clouds and by enhanced longwave absorption mainly attributed to the air temperature feedback.

Effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China.

PubMed

Tao, Yuqiang; Xue, Bin; Lei, Guoliang; Liu, Fei; Wang, Zhen

2017-04-01

To date effects of climate change on bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in planktonic food webs have rarely been studied. Recruitments of plankton have shifted earlier due to global warming. Global warming and precipitation patterns are projected to shift seasonally. Whether and how the shifts in plankton phenology induced by climate change will impact bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants, and how they will respond to climate change are largely unknown. Here, we combine data analysis of the past seven decades, high temporal resolution monitoring and model development to test this hypothesis with nine polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the planktonic food web of a subtropical shallow eutrophic lake in China. We find biphasic correlations between both bioconcentration factors and bioaccumulation factors of the PAHs and the mean temperature, which depend on the recruitment temperatures of cyanobacteria, and copepods and cladocerans. The positive correlations between bioconcentration factors, bioaccumulation factors and the mean temperature will be observed less than approximately 13-18 days by 2050-2060 due to the shifts in plankton phenology. The PAHs and their bioaccumulation and biomagnification will respond seasonally and differently to climate change. Bioaccumulation of most of the PAHs will decrease with global warming, with higher decreasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Biomagnification of most of the PAHs from phytoplankton to zooplankton will increase with global warming, with higher increasing rates appearing in winter and spring. Our study provides novel insights into bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemical pollutants in eutrophic waters under climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed Central

Salzmann, Marc

2016-01-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K−1 decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge. PMID:27386558

Global warming without global mean precipitation increase?

PubMed

Salzmann, Marc

2016-06-01

Global climate models simulate a robust increase of global mean precipitation of about 1.5 to 2% per kelvin surface warming in response to greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Here, it is shown that the sensitivity to aerosol cooling is robust as well, albeit roughly twice as large. This larger sensitivity is consistent with energy budget arguments. At the same time, it is still considerably lower than the 6.5 to 7% K(-1) decrease of the water vapor concentration with cooling from anthropogenic aerosol because the water vapor radiative feedback lowers the hydrological sensitivity to anthropogenic forcings. When GHG and aerosol forcings are combined, the climate models with a realistic 20th century warming indicate that the global mean precipitation increase due to GHG warming has, until recently, been completely masked by aerosol drying. This explains the apparent lack of sensitivity of the global mean precipitation to the net global warming recently found in observations. As the importance of GHG warming increases in the future, a clear signal will emerge.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goreau, T.J.; Hayes, R.L.; Strong, A.

Global spatio-temporal patterns of mass coral reef bleaching during the first half of the 1990s continued to show the strong temperature correlations which first became established in the 1980s. Satellite sea surface temperature data and field observations were used to track thermal bleaching events in real time. Most bleaching events followed warm season sea surface temperature anomalies of around +1 degree celsius above historical means. Global bleaching patterns appear to have been strongly affected by worldwide cooling which followed eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June 1991. High water temperatures and mass coral reef bleaching took place in the Caribbean, Indianmore » Ocean, and South Pacific in 1991, but there were few thermal anomalies or bleaching events in 1992 and 1993, years which were markedly cooler worldwide. Following the settling of Mount Pinatubo aerosols and resumption of global warming trends, extensive ocean thermal hot spots and bleaching events resumed in the South Pacific, South Atlantic, and Indian Oceans in 1994. Bleaching again took place in hot spots in the Indian Ocean and Caribbean in 1995, and in the South Atlantic, Caribbean, South Pacific, North Pacific, and Persian Gulf in 1996. Coral reefs worldwide are now very close to their upper temperature tolerance limits. This sensitivity, and the fact that the warmest ecosystems have no source of immigrant species pre-adapted to warmer conditions, may make coral reef ecosystems the first to be severely impacted if global temperatures and sea levels remain at current values or increase further.« less

An aftereffect of global warming on tropical Pacific decadal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Jian; Liu, Qinyu; Wang, Chuanyang

2018-03-01

Studies have shown that global warming over the past six decades can weaken the tropical Pacific Walker circulation and maintain the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Based on observations and model simulations, another aftereffect of global warming on IPO is found. After removing linear trends (global warming signals) from observations, however, the tropical Pacific climate still exhibited some obvious differences between two IPO negative phases. The boreal winter (DJF) equatorial central-eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) was colder during the 1999-2014 period (P2) than that during 1961-1976 (P1). This difference may have been a result of global warming nonlinear modulation of precipitation; i.e., in the climatological rainy region, the core area of the tropical Indo-western Pacific warm pool receives more precipitation through the "wet-get-wetter" mechanism. Positive precipitation anomalies in the warm pool during P2 are much stronger than those during P1, even after subtracting the linear trend. Corresponding to the differences of precipitation, the Pacific Walker circulation is stronger in P2 than in P1. Consequent easterly winds over the equatorial Pacific led to a colder equatorial eastern-central Pacific during P2. Therefore, tropical Pacific climate differences between the two negative IPO phases are aftereffects of global warming. These aftereffects are supported by the results of coupled climate model experiments, with and without global warming.

How much might additional half a degree from a global warming of 1.5°C affects the extreme precipitation change in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Jiang, Z.

2017-12-01

In order to strengthen the global respond to the dangerous of global warming, Paris Agreement sets out two long-term warming goals: limiting global warming to well below 2˚C and purse effort to below 1.5˚C above pre-industrial levels. However, future climate change risks in those two warming targets show significant regional differences. This article aims to study the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation change over China under those two global warming targets by using CMIP5 models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario. Focus is put on the effects of the additional half degree in changing the extreme precipitation. Results show that the changes of extreme precipitation are independent of the RCP scenarios when global warming reaches the same threshold. Intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China increase by around 6% and 11% when global warming reaches 1.5˚C and 2˚C, respectively. The additional half a degree increase makes the intensity of extreme precipitation averaged over China to increase by 4.5%, which translates to an increase close to the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. Return period decreases by 5 years for the extra half degree warming when the 20-year return values are considered at the reference level.

Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part II: Evaluations and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murakami, K.; Sasai, T.; Kato, S.; Niwa, Y.; Saito, M.; Takagi, H.; Matsunaga, T.; Hiraki, K.; Maksyutov, S. S.; Yokota, T.

2015-12-01

Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern in land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.Global terrestrial carbon cycle largely depends on a spatial pattern of land cover type, which is heterogeneously-distributed over regional and global scales. Many studies have been trying to reveal distribution of carbon exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere for understanding global carbon cycle dynamics by using terrestrial biosphere models, satellite data, inventory data, and so on. However, most studies remained within several tens of kilometers grid spatial resolution, and the results have not been enough to understand the detailed pattern of carbon exchanges based on ecological community and to evaluate the carbon stocks by forest ecosystems in each countries. Improving the sophistication of spatial resolution is obviously necessary to enhance the accuracy of carbon exchanges. Moreover, the improvement may contribute to global warming awareness, policy makers and other social activities. We show global terrestrial carbon exchanges (net ecosystem production, net primary production, and gross primary production) with 1km-grid resolution. The methodology for these estimations are shown in the 2015 AGU FM poster "Estimation of Global 1km-grid Terrestrial Carbon Exchange Part I: Developing Inputs and Modelling". In this study, we evaluated the carbon exchanges in various regions with other approaches. We used the satellite-driven biosphere model (BEAMS) as our estimations, GOSAT L4A CO2 flux data, NEP retrieved by NICAM and CarbonTracer2013 flux data, for period from Jun 2001 to Dec 2012. The temporal patterns for this period were indicated similar trends between BEAMS, GOSAT, NICAM, and CT2013 in many sub-continental regions. Then, we estimated the terrestrial carbon exchanges in each countries, and could indicated the temporal patterns of the exchanges in large carbon stock regions.

Global Warming: How Much and Why?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lanouette, William

1990-01-01

Summarizes the history of the study of global warming and includes a discussion of the role of gases, like carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC). Discusses modern research on the global warming, including computer modelling and the super-greenhouse effect. (YP)

Changes in Concurrent Precipitation and Temperature Extremes

DOE PAGES

Hao, Zengchao; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

2013-08-01

While numerous studies have addressed changes in climate extremes, analyses of concurrence of climate extremes are scarce, and climate change effects on joint extremes are rarely considered. This study assesses the occurrence of joint (concurrent) monthly continental precipitation and temperature extremes in Climate Research Unit (CRU) and University of Delaware (UD) observations, and in 13 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate simulations. Moreover, the joint occurrences of precipitation and temperature extremes simulated by CMIP5 climate models are compared with those derived from the CRU and UD observations for warm/wet, warm/dry, cold/wet, and cold/dry combinations of joint extremes.more » The number of occurrences of these four combinations during the second half of the 20th century (1951–2004) is assessed on a common global grid. CRU and UD observations show substantial increases in the occurrence of joint warm/dry and warm/wet combinations for the period 1978–2004 relative to 1951–1977. The results show that with respect to the sign of change in the concurrent extremes, the CMIP5 climate model simulations are in reasonable overall agreement with observations. The results reveal notable discrepancies between regional patterns and the magnitude of change in individual climate model simulations relative to the observations of precipitation and temperature.« less

The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosaka, Yu; Xie, Shang-Ping

2016-09-01

Global mean surface temperature change over the past 120 years resembles a rising staircase: the overall warming trend was interrupted by the mid-twentieth-century big hiatus and the warming slowdown since about 1998. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation has been implicated in modulations of global mean surface temperatures, but which part of the mode drives the variability in warming rates is unclear. Here we present a successful simulation of the global warming staircase since 1900 with a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model where tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are forced to follow the observed evolution. Without prescribed tropical Pacific variability, the same model, on average, produces a continual warming trend that accelerates after the 1960s. We identify four events where the tropical Pacific decadal cooling markedly slowed down the warming trend. Matching the observed spatial and seasonal fingerprints we identify the tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the warming staircase, with radiative forcing driving the overall warming trend. Specifically, tropical Pacific variability amplifies the first warming epoch of the 1910s-1940s and determines the timing when the big hiatus starts and ends. Our method of removing internal variability from the observed record can be used for real-time monitoring of anthropogenic warming.

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju; Yang, Yang

2018-02-01

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmospheric patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.

Attribution of Anthropogenic Influence on Atmospheric Patterns Conducive to Recent Most Severe Haze Over Eastern China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Cai, Wenju

Severe haze pollution in eastern China has caused substantial health impacts and economic loss. Conducive atmospheric conditions are important to affect occurrence of severe haze events, and circulation changes induced by future global climate warming are projected to increase the frequency of such events. However, a potential contribution of an anthropogenic influence to recent most severe haze (December 2015 and January 2013) over eastern China remains unclear. Here we show that the anthropogenic influence, which is estimated by using large ensemble runs with a climate model forced with and without anthropogenic forcings, has already increased the probability of the atmosphericmore » patterns conducive to severe haze by at least 45% in January 2013 and 27% in December 2015, respectively. We further confirm that simulated atmospheric circulation pattern changes induced by anthropogenic influence are driven mainly by increased greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest that more strict reductions in pollutant emissions are needed under future anthropogenic warming.« less

Relationships Between Global Warming and Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-09-01

In this work, we investigate the relationships between global warming and tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Our...hypothesis is that global warming impacts on TC activity occur through changes in the large scale environmental factors (LSEFs) known to be important in...averages. Using a least squares fit, we identify global warming signals in both the SST and vertical wind shear data across the WNP. These signals vary

Policy on global warming: fiddling while the globe burns?

PubMed

Weston, Del

2009-08-01

To assess the extent that the health consequences of global warming and the responses to it take due account of its impact on poverty and inequality. Reviewing the relevant literature on global warming, proposed solutions and the impact. To date, too little attention has been paid to the health consequences arising from the increased poverty and inequality that global warming will bring. When these are combined with issues arising from the economic melt-down, food shortages, peak oil, etc. we are heading for a global public health crisis of immeasurable magnitude. Solutions lie in rethinking the global economic system that we have relied upon over the past several decades and the global institutions that have led and fed off that global system - the IMF, the World Bank and so on. Public health practitioners need to look and act globally more often. They need to better recognise the links between global warming and the global financial crisis. How the latter is dealt with will determine whether the former can be resolved. It is in this global political economy arena that future action in public health lies.

Catalytic power of enzymes decreases with temperature: New insights for understanding soil C cycling and microbial ecology under warming.

PubMed

Alvarez, Gaël; Shahzad, Tanvir; Andanson, Laurence; Bahn, Michael; Wallenstein, Matthew D; Fontaine, Sébastien

2018-04-23

Most current models of soil C dynamics predict that climate warming will accelerate soil C mineralization, resulting in a long-term CO 2 release and positive feedback to global warming. However, ecosystem warming experiments show that CO 2 loss from warmed soils declines to control levels within a few years. Here, we explore the temperature dependence of enzymatic conversion of polymerized soil organic C (SOC) into assimilable compounds, which is presumed the rate-limiting step of SOC mineralization. Combining literature review, modelling and enzyme assays, we studied the effect of temperature on activity of enzymes considering their thermal inactivation and catalytic activity. We defined the catalytic power of enzymes (E power ) as the cumulative amount of degraded substrate by one unit of enzyme until its complete inactivation. We show a universal pattern of enzyme's thermodynamic properties: activation energy of catalytic activity (EA cat ) < activation energy of thermal inactivation (EA inact ). By investing in stable enzymes (high EA inact ) having high catalytic activity (low EA cat ), microorganisms may maximize the E power of their enzymes. The counterpart of such EAs' hierarchical pattern is the higher relative temperature sensitivity of enzyme inactivation than catalysis, resulting in a reduction in E power under warming. Our findings could explain the decrease with temperature in soil enzyme pools, microbial biomass (MB) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) reported in some warming experiments and studies monitoring the seasonal variation in soil enzymes. They also suggest that a decrease in soil enzyme pools due to their faster inactivation under warming contributes to the observed attenuation of warming effect on soil C mineralization. This testable theory predicts that the ultimate response of SOC degradation to warming can be positive or negative depending on the relative temperature response of E power and microbial production of enzymes. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Dai, Aiguo; Wei, Yun; Kang, Litai

2017-06-01

The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greater warming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 °C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 °C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (~230 Gt) have been only ~30% of those generated from humid lands (~750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 °C (2.4-2.6 °C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 °C, indicating ~44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Our analyses indicate that ~38% of the world's population living in drylands would suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 °C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 °C therefore it is necessary to keep global warming within 1.5 °C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.

What is "good reasoning" about global warming? A comparison of high school students and specialists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Stephen Thomas

This study compares the knowledge and reasoning about global warming of 10 twelfth grade students and 6 specialists, including scientists and policy analysts. The study uses global warming as a context for addressing the broad objective of formulating goals for scientific literacy. Subjects evaluated a set of articles about global warming and evaluated policies proposed to ameliorate global warming, including a gasoline tax and a "feebate" system of fees and rebates on automobiles. All students and one scientist participated in a full treatment involving interviews and activities with a computer program (discussed below), averaging about 3.75 hours. In addition, five specialists participated in interviews only, averaging one hour. One line of analysis focuses on knowledge content, examining how subjects applied perspectives from both natural and social sciences. This analysis is positioned as an empirical component to the movement to develop content standards for science education, as exemplified by the recommendations of Science for All Americans (SFAA). Some aspects of competent performance in the present study hinged upon knowledge and skills advocated by SFAA (e.g., fluency with themes of science such as scale). Other aspects involved such skills as evaluating economic interests behind a scientific argument in the media or considering hidden costs in a policy area. By characterizing a range of approaches to how students and specialists performed the experimental tasks, the present study affords a view of scientific literacy not possible without this type of information. Another line of analysis investigates a measure of coherent argumentation from a computer program, Convince Me, in relation to policy reasoning. The program is based on a connectionist model, ECHO. Subjects used the program to create arguments about the aforementioned policies. The study compares Convince Me's Model's Fit argumentation measure to other measures, including ratings of 6 human judges about the quality of the arguments, a measure of the stability of subjects' views, and the number of statements in subjects' arguments. The pattern of significant correlations among several of these measures, plus interview findings, help to clarify cognitive and educational issues involved with using Convince Me (or related programs) in this area.

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming.

PubMed

Graversen, Rune G; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Tjernström, Michael; Källén, Erland; Svensson, Gunilla

2008-01-03

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.

Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

PubMed

Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

2015-01-01

Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing temperature helps providing more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niederdrenk, Anne Laura; Notz, Dirk

2018-02-01

We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high-sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability (P≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability (P> 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low-sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming (P≪ 1%) and has low likelihood (P≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.

Seasonality of coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios along the southern limit of the canary upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Magda Catarina; Alvarez, Ines; deCastro, Maite; Gomez-Gesteira, Moncho; Dias, João Miguel

2017-04-01

The Canary Upwelling Ecosystem (CUE) is one of the four most important upwelling sites around the world in terms of primary production, with coastal upwelling mostly a year-round phenomenon south of 30°N. Based on annual future projections, several previous studies indicated that global warming will intensify coastal upwelling in the northern region and will induce its weakening at the southernmost latitudes. However, analysis of historical data, showed that coastal upwelling depends on the length of the time series, the season, and even the database used. Thus, despite previous efforts, an overall detailed description of seasonal upwelling trends and their effects on sea surface temperature (SST) along the Canary coast over the 21st century remains unclear. To address this issue, several regional and global wind and SST climate models from CORDEX and CMIP5 projects for the period 1976-2099 were analyzed. This research provides new insights about coastal upwelling trends under future warming scenarios for the CUE, with results showing opposite patterns for upwelling index (UI) trends depending on the season. A weakening of the UI occurs from May to August all along the coast, whereas it increases from October to April. Analysis of SST trends reveals a general warming throughout the area, although the warming rate is considerably lower near the shore than at open ocean locations due to coastal upwelling effects. In addition, SST projections show higher warming rates from May to August than from October to April in response to the future decreasing trend in the UI during the summer months.

Impacts of radiation management techniques on the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Helge Otterå, Odd; Tjiputra, Jerry; Muri, Helene; Grini, Alf; Schulz, Michael

2017-04-01

The effectiveness of various climate engineering techniques in limiting the global warming signal to reasonable levels has been the topic of state-of-the-art research on climate change. Using an Earth system model, we show that these techniques have the potential to bring down the high CO2 concentration climate in RCP8.5 to a moderate climate similar to RCP4.5 in terms of global temperature. Nevertheless, their influence on the regional aspects of atmospheric circulation is not clear. The regional circulation patterns in the atmosphere are largely characterized by the natural variability modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we assess the impacts of three radiation managment techniques, namely, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), Marine Sky Brightening (MSB) and Cirrus Cloud Thinning (CCT), on the structure and features of the NAO. The results indicate an east-northeastward shift as well as intensification of the NAO spatial pattern in the global warming scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with the signal being most intense in the latter. The climate engineering forcings when applied to the RCP8.5 case tend to reduce the strength of the NAO with little impact on its position. The CCT case appears to have the maximum effect on the NAO signal. The patterns of cloud radiative forcing, expressed as the difference between net radiative forcing at TOA under average conditions and clear sky conditions, reveal a northeastward shift of the radiative heating in the north Atlantic region. This implies a possible link between the changes in the NAO signal and the cloud radiative forcing.

Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble.

PubMed

Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

2012-01-10

We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots throughout the 21 st century of the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 forcing pathways. In addition, areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, the Arctic, and Central America/western North America also emerge as prominent regional climate change hotspots in response to intermediate and high levels of forcing. Comparisons of different periods of the two forcing pathways suggest that the pattern of aggregate change is fairly robust to the level of global warming below approximately 2°C of global warming (relative to the late-20 th -century baseline), but not at the higher levels of global warming that occur in the late-21 st -century period of the RCP8.5 pathway, with areas of southern Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Arctic exhibiting particular intensification of relative aggregate climate change in response to high levels of forcing. Although specific impacts will clearly be shaped by the interaction of climate change with human and biological vulnerabilities, our identification of climate change hotspots can help to inform mitigation and adaptation decisions by quantifying the rate, magnitude and causes of the aggregate climate response in different parts of the world.

Stochastic Modeling and Global Warming Trend Extraction For Ocean Acoustic Travel Times.

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-06

consideration and that these models can not currently be relied upon by themselves to predict global warming . Experimental data is most certainly needed, not...only to measure global warming itself, but to help improve the ocean model themselves. (AN)

Global Warming on Triton

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Elliot, J. L.; Hammel, H. B.; Wasserman, L. H.; Franz, O. G.; McDonald, S. W.; Person, M. J.; Olkin, C. B.; Dunham, E. J.; Spencer, J. R.; Stansberry, J. A.;

Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, Paul C.D.

2017-01-01

Land aridity has been projected to increase with global warming. Such projections are mostly based on off-line aridity and drought metrics applied to climate model outputs but also are supported by climate-model projections of decreased surface soil moisture. Here we comprehensively analyze soil moisture projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, including surface, total, and layer-by-layer soil moisture. We identify a robust vertical gradient of projected mean soil moisture changes, with more negative changes near the surface. Some regions of the northern middle to high latitudes exhibit negative annual surface changes but positive total changes. We interpret this behavior in the context of seasonal changes in the surface water budget. This vertical pattern implies that the extensive drying predicted by off-line drought metrics, while consistent with the projected decline in surface soil moisture, will tend to overestimate (negatively) changes in total soil water availability.

Deep-sea Benthic Foraminifera in the SE Atlantic across Eocene Hyperthermal Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, E.

2016-12-01

Short-term episodes of global warming (hyperthermal events) were superimposed on the warming trend into the Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO). The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) was the most extreme, followed by Eocene Thermal Maximum-2 and -3 (ETM2: 1.8 myr, ETM3: 3.1 myr post-PETM). Hyperthermals are characterized by negative carbon isotope excursions (CIEs, emission of isotopically light carbon in the ocean-atmosphere), negative oxygen isotope excursions (global warming) and carbonate dissolution (ocean acidification). Sensitivity of biota to environmental changes due to carbon emissions can be evaluated by studying their response to hyperthermals of different magnitude. Deep-sea benthic foraminiferal records across PETM, ETM2 and -3 are available for Site 1262 (3600 m) and 1263 (1500m) on SE Atlantic Walvis Ridge. Benthic foraminifera (carbonate and agglutinated) are absent in the carbonate-free PETM clay-layer (Site 1262: 65 kyr; Site1263: 10 kyr). Deep-sea benthic foraminifera suffered extinction and diversity loss at the start of the PETM, as they did globally, with diversity recovering only partially. Stable isotope records show a larger PETM-CIE and amount of warming at Site 1263 than global average (McCarren et al., 2008), and warming was more pronounced at Site 1263 than at 1262 during ETM2 (Jennions et al., 2015) and ETM3 (Roehl et al., 2005). During ETM2 and -3, carbonate dissolution affected the sites, both remaining between CCD and lysocline. Assemblages were more severely affected (larger drop in benthic foraminiferal accumulation rates, BFAR) at the shallower site, opposite to expected if caused mainly by carbonate corrosivity. The large decrease in BFAR indicates a decline in food arrival at the sea floor, more pronounced at the shallower site, as supported by changes in relative and absolute abundance of species, and more pronounced at ETM2 than at ETM3. Greater warming at intermediate depths could have been caused by ocean circulation changes, with the greater warming more severely affecting metabolic rates of benthic foraminifera, thus patterns of effective food supply, species and diversity change. Roehl et al. 2005 GSA Abstr. 37: 264. McCarren et al. 2008 G3, 9 (10): Q10008. Jennions et al. 2015 Paleoceanogr. 30: 1059-1077

Global vegetation productivity response to climatic oscillations during the satellite era.

PubMed

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Lombardozzi, Danica

2016-10-01

Climate control on global vegetation productivity patterns has intensified in response to recent global warming. Yet, the contributions of the leading internal climatic variations to global vegetation productivity are poorly understood. Here, we use 30 years of global satellite observations to study climatic variations controls on continental and global vegetation productivity patterns. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases (La Niña, neutral, and El Niño years) appear to be a weaker control on global-scale vegetation productivity than previously thought, although continental-scale responses are substantial. There is also clear evidence that other non-ENSO climatic variations have a strong control on spatial patterns of vegetation productivity mainly through their influence on temperature. Among the eight leading internal climatic variations, the East Atlantic/West Russia Pattern extensively controls the ensuing year vegetation productivity of the most productive tropical and temperate forest ecosystems of the Earth's vegetated surface through directionally consistent influence on vegetation greenness. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) simulations do not capture the observed patterns of vegetation productivity responses to internal climatic variations. Our analyses show the ubiquitous control of climatic variations on vegetation productivity and can further guide CCSM and other Earth system models developments to represent vegetation response patterns to unforced variability. Several winter time internal climatic variation indices show strong potentials on predicting growing season vegetation productivity two to six seasons ahead which enables national governments and farmers forecast crop yield to ensure supplies of affordable food, famine early warning, and plan management options to minimize yield losses ahead of time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming.

PubMed

Shestakova, Tatiana A; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A; Linares, Juan Carlos; Resco de Dios, Víctor; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-19

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼ 1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales.

Forests synchronize their growth in contrasting Eurasian regions in response to climate warming

PubMed Central

Shestakova, Tatiana A.; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Kirdyanov, Alexander V.; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Génova, Mar; Knorre, Anastasia A.; Linares, Juan Carlos; Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Voltas, Jordi

2016-01-01

Forests play a key role in the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. One of the main uncertainties in global change predictions lies in how the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest productivity will be affected by climate warming. Here we show an increasing influence of climate on the spatial variability of tree growth during the last 120 y, ultimately leading to unprecedented temporal coherence in ring-width records over wide geographical scales (spatial synchrony). Synchrony in growth patterns across cold-constrained (central Siberia) and drought-constrained (Spain) Eurasian conifer forests have peaked in the early 21st century at subcontinental scales (∼1,000 km). Such enhanced synchrony is similar to that observed in trees co-occurring within a stand. In boreal forests, the combined effects of recent warming and increasing intensity of climate extremes are enhancing synchrony through an earlier start of wood formation and a stronger impact of year-to-year fluctuations of growing-season temperatures on growth. In Mediterranean forests, the impact of warming on synchrony is related mainly to an advanced onset of growth and the strengthening of drought-induced growth limitations. Spatial patterns of enhanced synchrony represent early warning signals of climate change impacts on forest ecosystems at subcontinental scales. PMID:26729860

Green-house gas mitigation capacity of a small scale rural biogas plant calculations for Bangladesh through a general life cycle assessment.

PubMed

Rahman, Khondokar M; Melville, Lynsey; Fulford, David; Huq, Sm Imamul

2017-10-01

Calculations towards determining the greenhouse gas mitigation capacity of a small-scale biogas plant (3.2 m 3 plant) using cow dung in Bangladesh are presented. A general life cycle assessment was used, evaluating key parameters (biogas, methane, construction materials and feedstock demands) to determine the net environmental impact. The global warming potential saving through the use of biogas as a cooking fuel is reduced from 0.40 kg CO 2 equivalent to 0.064 kg CO 2 equivalent per kilogram of dung. Biomethane used for cooking can contribute towards mitigation of global warming. Prior to utilisation of the global warming potential of methane (from 3.2 m 3 biogas plant), the global warming potential is 13 t of carbon dioxide equivalent. This reduced to 2 t as a result of complete combustion of methane. The global warming potential saving of a bioenergy plant across a 20-year life cycle is 217 t of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is 11 t per year. The global warming potential of the resultant digestate is zero and from construction materials is less than 1% of total global warming potential. When the biogas is used as a fuel for cooking, the global warming potential will reduce by 83% compare with the traditional wood biomass cooking system. The total 80 MJ of energy that can be produced from a 3.2 m 3 anaerobic digestion plant would replace 1.9 t of fuel wood or 632 kg of kerosene currently used annually in Bangladesh. The digestate can also be used as a nutrient rich fertiliser substituting more costly inorganic fertilisers, with no global warming potential impact.

Potential impacts of global warming on the diversity and distribution of stream insects in South Korea.

PubMed

Li, Fengqing; Kwon, Yong-Su; Bae, Mi-Jung; Chung, Namil; Kwon, Tae-Sung; Park, Young-Seuk

2014-04-01

Globally, the East Asian monsoon region is one of the richest environments in terms of biodiversity. The region is undergoing rapid human development, yet its river ecosystems have not been well studied. Global warming represents a major challenge to the survival of species in this region and makes it necessary to assess and reduce the potential consequences of warming on species of conservation concern. We projected the effects of global warming on stream insect (Ephemeroptera, Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera [EOPT]) diversity and predicted the changes of geographical ranges for 121 species throughout South Korea. Plecoptera was the most sensitive (decrease of 71.4% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) order, whereas Odonata benefited (increase of 66.7% in number of species from the 2000s through the 2080s) from the effects of global warming. The impact of global warming on stream insects was predicted to be minimal prior to the 2060s; however, by the 2080s, species extirpation of up to 20% in the highland areas and 2% in the lowland areas were predicted. The projected responses of stream insects under global warming indicated that species occupying specific habitats could undergo major reductions in habitat. Nevertheless, habitat of 33% of EOPT (including two-thirds of Odonata and one-third of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera) was predicted to increase due to global warming. The community compositions predicted by generalized additive models varied over this century, and a large difference in community structure in the highland areas was predicted between the 2000s and the 2080s. However, stream insect communities, especially Odonata, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera, were predicted to become more homogenous under global warming. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Growth and phenology of three dwarf shrub species in a six-year soil warming experiment at the alpine treeline.

PubMed

Anadon-Rosell, Alba; Rixen, Christian; Cherubini, Paolo; Wipf, Sonja; Hagedorn, Frank; Dawes, Melissa A

2014-01-01

Global warming can have substantial impacts on the phenological and growth patterns of alpine and Arctic species, resulting in shifts in plant community composition and ecosystem dynamics. We evaluated the effects of a six-year experimental soil warming treatment (+4°C, 2007-2012) on the phenology and growth of three co-dominant dwarf shrub species growing in the understory of Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata at treeline in the Swiss Alps. We monitored vegetative and reproductive phenology of Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium gaultherioides and Empetrum hermaphroditum throughout the early growing season of 2012 and, following a major harvest at peak season, we measured the biomass of above-ground ramet fractions. For all six years of soil warming we measured annual shoot growth of the three species and analyzed ramet age and xylem ring width of V. myrtillus. Our results show that phenology of the three species was more influenced by snowmelt timing, and also by plot tree species (Larix or Pinus) in the case of V. myrtillus, than by soil warming. However, the warming treatment led to increased V. myrtillus total above-ground ramet biomass (+36% in 2012), especially new shoot biomass (+63% in 2012), as well as increased new shoot increment length and xylem ring width (+22% and +41%, respectively; average for 2007-2012). These results indicate enhanced overall growth of V. myrtillus under soil warming that was sustained over six years and was not caused by an extended growing period in early summer. In contrast, E. hermaphroditum only showed a positive shoot growth response to warming in 2011 (+21%), and V. gaultherioides showed no significant growth response. Our results indicate that V. myrtillus might have a competitive advantage over the less responsive co-occurring dwarf shrub species under future global warming.

Growth and Phenology of Three Dwarf Shrub Species in a Six-Year Soil Warming Experiment at the Alpine Treeline

PubMed Central

Anadon-Rosell, Alba; Rixen, Christian; Cherubini, Paolo; Wipf, Sonja; Hagedorn, Frank; Dawes, Melissa A.

2014-01-01

Global warming can have substantial impacts on the phenological and growth patterns of alpine and Arctic species, resulting in shifts in plant community composition and ecosystem dynamics. We evaluated the effects of a six-year experimental soil warming treatment (+4°C, 2007–2012) on the phenology and growth of three co-dominant dwarf shrub species growing in the understory of Larix decidua and Pinus uncinata at treeline in the Swiss Alps. We monitored vegetative and reproductive phenology of Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium gaultherioides and Empetrum hermaphroditum throughout the early growing season of 2012 and, following a major harvest at peak season, we measured the biomass of above-ground ramet fractions. For all six years of soil warming we measured annual shoot growth of the three species and analyzed ramet age and xylem ring width of V. myrtillus. Our results show that phenology of the three species was more influenced by snowmelt timing, and also by plot tree species (Larix or Pinus) in the case of V. myrtillus, than by soil warming. However, the warming treatment led to increased V. myrtillus total above-ground ramet biomass (+36% in 2012), especially new shoot biomass (+63% in 2012), as well as increased new shoot increment length and xylem ring width (+22% and +41%, respectively; average for 2007–2012). These results indicate enhanced overall growth of V. myrtillus under soil warming that was sustained over six years and was not caused by an extended growing period in early summer. In contrast, E. hermaphroditum only showed a positive shoot growth response to warming in 2011 (+21%), and V. gaultherioides showed no significant growth response. Our results indicate that V. myrtillus might have a competitive advantage over the less responsive co-occurring dwarf shrub species under future global warming. PMID:24956273

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diasso, Ulrich; Abiodun, Babatunde J.

2017-07-01

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8-12°N, 20°W-20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031-2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1-2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1-2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.

Effects of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and global warming on drought in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2012-12-01

Droughts are among the most expensive weather related disasters in the US. In the semi-arid regions of the US Southwest, where average annual rainfall is already very low, multiyear droughts can have large economic, societal and ecological impacts. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which undergo considerable interannual variability associated with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. These impacts have not been combined and compared with projections of long-term variations due to natural climate patterns. This study addresses this need by deriving future projections of rainfall departures for Arizona and New Mexico with the PDO and AMO and combining these with projected global warming impacts. Depending on the precipitation dataset used, the impacts for the ongoing negative PDO phase are projected to be between 1-1.6 times as large as the multi-model means projection of precipitation minus evaporation during 2020-2040 in the IPCC A1B Scenario. The projected precipitation impacts of a combined negative PDO and positive AMO phase are between 1-2 times as large as the A1B Scenario projection. The study also advances earlier work by addressing problems in detecting the effect of the PDO on precipitation. Given the different mechanisms with which the PDO affects precipitation during winter and the NAM season, precipitation impacts are here investigated on a monthly scale. The impacts of the PDO also vary with other climate patterns. This can be partly addressed by investigating precipitation departures in dependence on other patterns. It is further found that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures.

Groundwater dynamics mediate low-flow response to global warming in snow-dominated alpine regions

Treesearch

Christina Tague; Gordon E. Grant

2009-01-01

In mountain environments, spatial and temporal patterns of snow accumulation and melt are dominant controls on hydrologic responses to climate change. In this paper, we develop a simple conceptual model that links the timing of peak snowmelt with geologically mediated differences in rate of streamflow recession. This model demonstrates that within the western United...

National Security Implications of Global Warming Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

Although numerous historical examples demonstrate how actual climate change has contributed to the rise and fall of powers, global warming , in and of...become convinced that global warming is universally bad and humans are the primary cause, political leaders may develop ill-advised policies restricting

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

An attack on science? Media use, trust in scientists, and perceptions of global warming.

PubMed

Hmielowski, Jay D; Feldman, Lauren; Myers, Teresa A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Maibach, Edward

2014-10-01

There is a growing divide in how conservatives and liberals in the USA understand the issue of global warming. Prior research suggests that the American public's reliance on partisan media contributes to this gap. However, researchers have yet to identify intervening variables to explain the relationship between media use and public opinion about global warming. Several studies have shown that trust in scientists is an important heuristic many people use when reporting their opinions on science-related topics. Using within-subject panel data from a nationally representative sample of Americans, this study finds that trust in scientists mediates the effect of news media use on perceptions of global warming. Results demonstrate that conservative media use decreases trust in scientists which, in turn, decreases certainty that global warming is happening. By contrast, use of non-conservative media increases trust in scientists, which, in turn, increases certainty that global warming is happening. © The Author(s) 2013.

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE PAGES

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.; ...

2017-01-31

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henley, Benjamin J.; Meehl, Gerald; Power, Scott B.

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, been associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Critically, decadal climate prediction relies on the skill of state-of-the-art climate models to reliably represent these low-frequency climate variations. We undertake a systematic evaluation of the simulation of the IPO in the suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models. We track the IPO in pre-industrial (control) and all-forcings (historical) experiments using the IPO tripole index (TPI). The TPI is explicitly aligned with the observed spatial pattern of the IPO, and circumventsmore » assumptions about the nature of global warming. We find that many models underestimate the ratio of decadal-to-total variance in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the basin-wide spatial pattern of positive and negative phases of the IPO are simulated reasonably well, with spatial pattern correlation coefficients between observations and models spanning the range 0.4–0.8. Deficiencies are mainly in the extratropical Pacific. Models that better capture the spatial pattern of the IPO also tend to more realistically simulate the ratio of decadal to total variance. Of the 13% of model centuries that have a fractional bias in the decadal-to-total TPI variance of 0.2 or less, 84% also have a spatial pattern correlation coefficient with the observed pattern exceeding 0.5. This result is highly consistent across both IPO positive and negative phases. This is evidence that the IPO is related to one or more inherent dynamical mechanisms of the climate system.« less

Understanding the robustness of Hadley cell response to wide variations in ocean heat transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rencurrel, M. C.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-12-01

One important aspect of our climate system is the relationship between surface climate and the poleward energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Previous studies have shown that increases in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) tend to warm the midlatitudes without strongly affecting tropical SSTs, resulting in a reduction in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient. This "tropical thermostat" effect depends crucially on a slowdown of the Hadley circulation (HC), with consequent changes in surface evaporation, atmospheric water vapor, and cloudiness. Here we extend previous studies by considering a wide range of spatial patterns of OHT, which we impose in a suite of slab-ocean aquaplanet GCM simulations. The forcing patterns are idealized but sample a variety of ocean circulation features. We find that the tropical thermostat and HC slowdown effects are relatively robust across all forcing patterns. A 1 PW increase in the amplitude of the prescribed OHT spatial pattern results in a global mean warming and a roughly 5 x 1010 kg/s decrease in HC mass flux, regardless of the detailed spatial structure of the imposed OHT. While the rate of HC slowdown is relatively robust, the mechanisms driving it are less so. Smaller, equator-to-subtropical scale OHT patterns are associated with greater reduced Gross Moist Stability (GMS) than the larger-scale OHT patterns. As the imposed OHT is limited equatorward, the HC becomes less efficient at transporting energy out of the tropics, implying that GMS has a modulating effect on the dynamical response of the cell. These experiments offer some new insights on the interplay between atmospheric dynamics and the radiative and hydrological aspects of global climate.

Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming.

PubMed

Cheng, Jun; Liu, Zhengyu; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Wei; Dong, Lina; Liu, Peng; Li, Hongli

2016-03-22

Interdecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC-IV) plays an important role in climate variation and has significant societal impacts. Past climate reconstruction indicates that AMOC-IV has likely undergone significant changes. Despite some previous studies, responses of AMOC-IV to global warming remain unclear, in particular regarding its amplitude and time scale. In this study, we analyze the responses of AMOC-IV under various scenarios of future global warming in multiple models and find that AMOC-IV becomes weaker and shorter with enhanced global warming. From the present climate condition to the strongest future warming scenario, on average, the major period of AMOC-IV is shortened from ∼50 y to ∼20 y, and the amplitude is reduced by ∼60%. These reductions in period and amplitude of AMOC-IV are suggested to be associated with increased oceanic stratification under global warming and, in turn, the speedup of oceanic baroclinic Rossby waves.

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance

PubMed Central

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Abstract Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3–0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach. PMID:27933165

Interactions between rates of temperature change and acclimation affect latitudinal patterns of warming tolerance.

PubMed

Allen, Jessica L; Chown, Steven L; Janion-Scheepers, Charlene; Clusella-Trullas, Susana

2016-01-01

Critical thermal limits form an increasing component of the estimation of impacts of global change on ectotherms. Whether any consistent patterns exist in the interactive effects of rates of temperature change (or experimental ramping rates) and acclimation on critical thermal limits and warming tolerance (one way of assessing sensitivity to climate change) is, however, far from clear. Here, we examine the interacting effects of ramping rate and acclimation on the critical thermal maxima (CTmax) and minima (CTmin) and warming tolerance of six species of springtails from sub-tropical, temperate and polar regions. We also provide microhabitat temperatures from 26 sites spanning 5 years in order to benchmark environmentally relevant rates of temperature change. Ramping rate has larger effects than acclimation on CTmax, but the converse is true for CTmin. Responses to rate and acclimation effects are more consistent among species for CTmax than for CTmin. In the latter case, interactions among ramping rate and acclimation are typical of polar species, less marked for temperate ones, and reduced in species from the sub-tropics. Ramping rate and acclimation have substantial effects on estimates of warming tolerance, with the former being more marked. At the fastest ramping rates (>1.0°C/min), tropical species have estimated warming tolerances similar to their temperate counterparts, whereas at slow ramping rates (<0.4°C/min) the warming tolerance is much reduced in tropical species. Rates of temperate change in microhabitats relevant to the springtails are typically <0.05°C/min, with rare maxima of 0.3-0.5°C/min depending on the site. These findings emphasize the need to consider the environmental setting and experimental conditions when assessing species' vulnerability to climate change using a warming tolerance approach.

Global Precipitation: Means, Variations and Trends During the Satellite Era (1979-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adler, Robert F.; Gu, Guojun; Sapiano, Matthew; Wang, Jian-Jian; Huffman, George J.

2017-07-01

Global precipitation variations over the satellite era are reviewed using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly, globally complete analyses, which integrate satellite and surface gauge information. Mean planetary values are examined and compared, over ocean, with information from recent satellite programs and related estimates, with generally positive agreements, but with some indication of small underestimates for GPCP over the global ocean. Variations during the satellite era in global precipitation are tied to ENSO events, with small increases during El Ninos, and very noticeable decreases after major volcanic eruptions. No overall significant trend is noted in the global precipitation mean value, unlike that for surface temperature and atmospheric water vapor. However, there is a pattern of positive and negative trends across the planet with increases over tropical oceans and decreases over some middle latitude regions. These observed patterns are a result of a combination of inter-decadal variations and the effect of the global warming during the period. The results reviewed here indicate the value of such analyses as GPCP and the possible improvement in the information as the record lengthens and as new, more sophisticated and more accurate observations are included.

The local, remote, and global consequences of climate feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldl, Nicole

Climate feedbacks offer a powerful framework for revealing the energetic pathways by which the system adjusts to an imposed forcing, such as an increase in atmospheric CO2. We investigate how local atmospheric feedbacks, such as those associated with Arctic sea ice and the Walker circulation, affect both global climate sensitivity and spatial patterns of warming. Emphasis is placed on a general circulation model with idealized boundary conditions, for the clarity it provides. For this aquaplanet simulation, we account for rapid tropospheric adjustments to CO2 and explicitly diagnose feedbacks (using radiative kernels) and forcing for this precise model set-up. In particular, a detailed closure of the energy budget within a clean experimental set-up allows us to consider nonlinear interactions between feedbacks. The inclusion of a tropical Walker circulation is found to prime the Hadley Circulation for a larger deceleration under CO2 doubling, by altering subtropical stratus decks and the meridional feedback gradient. We perform targeted experiments to isolate the atmospheric processes responsible for the variability in climate sensitivity, with implications for high-sensitivity paleoclimates. The local climate response is characterized in terms of the meridional structure of feedbacks, atmospheric heat transport, nonlinearities, and forcing. Our results display a combination of positive subtropical feedbacks and polar amplified warming. These two factors imply a critical role for transport and nonlinear effects, with the latter acting to substantially reduce global climate sensitivity. At the hemispheric scale, a rich picture emerges: anomalous divergence of heat flux away from positive feedbacks in the subtropics; clear-sky nonlinearities that reinforce the pattern of tropical cooling and high-latitude warming tendencies; and strong ice-line feedbacks that drive further amplification of polar warming. These results have implications for regional climate predictability, by providing an indication of how spatial patterns in feedbacks combine to affect both the local and nonlocal climate response, and how constraining uncertainty in those feedbacks may constrain the climate response. We also consider how competing definitions of feedbacks influence interpretation of climate sensitivity. While climate feedbacks represent a convenient breakdown of the energy balance, their widespread appeal has led to a profusion of definitions, and to variations upon the traditional decomposition. We demonstrate that a locally defined feedback framework does provide several advantages from the perspective of regional climate predictability. Namely, it enables a partial temperature change analysis which quantifies contributions to spatial patterns of warming; it also ensures feedbacks are not biased at high latitudes due to polar amplification. Alternative approaches to characterizing feedbacks can also isolate and illuminate different atmospheric processes. In particular, comparison of two versions of the water vapor feedback, one focused on specific humidity and the other on relative humidity, allows for an elegant dissection of the relative importance of thermodynamical and dynamical changes in a warmer world.

Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs - adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zelazowski, Przemyslaw; Huntingford, Chris; Mercado, Lina M.; Schaller, Nathalie

2018-02-01

Global circulation models (GCMs) are the best tool to understand climate change, as they attempt to represent all the important Earth system processes, including anthropogenic perturbation through fossil fuel burning. However, GCMs are computationally very expensive, which limits the number of simulations that can be made. Pattern scaling is an emulation technique that takes advantage of the fact that local and seasonal changes in surface climate are often approximately linear in the rate of warming over land and across the globe. This allows interpolation away from a limited number of available GCM simulations, to assess alternative future emissions scenarios. In this paper, we present a climate pattern-scaling set consisting of spatial climate change patterns along with parameters for an energy-balance model that calculates the amount of global warming. The set, available for download, is derived from 22 GCMs of the WCRP CMIP3 database, setting the basis for similar eventual pattern development for the CMIP5 and forthcoming CMIP6 ensemble. Critically, it extends the use of the IMOGEN (Integrated Model Of Global Effects of climatic aNomalies) framework to enable scanning across full uncertainty in GCMs for impact studies. Across models, the presented climate patterns represent consistent global mean trends, with a maximum of 4 (out of 22) GCMs exhibiting the opposite sign to the global trend per variable (relative humidity). The described new climate regimes are generally warmer, wetter (but with less snowfall), cloudier and windier, and have decreased relative humidity. Overall, when averaging individual performance across all variables, and without considering co-variance, the patterns explain one-third of regional change in decadal averages (mean percentage variance explained, PVE, 34.25 ± 5.21), but the signal in some models exhibits much more linearity (e.g. MIROC3.2(hires): 41.53) than in others (GISS_ER: 22.67). The two most often considered variables, near-surface temperature and precipitation, have a PVE of 85.44 ± 4.37 and 14.98 ± 4.61, respectively. We also provide an example assessment of a terrestrial impact (changes in mean runoff) and compare projections by the IMOGEN system, which has one land surface model, against direct GCM outputs, which all have alternative representations of land functioning. The latter is noted as an additional source of uncertainty. Finally, current and potential future applications of the IMOGEN version 2.0 modelling system in the areas of ecosystem modelling and climate change impact assessment are presented and discussed.

40 CFR 82.178 - Information required to be submitted.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... chemicals. The submitter must also provide supporting documentation or references. (6) Global warming impacts. Data on the total global warming potential of the substitute, including information on the GWP index and the indirect contributions to global warming caused by the production or use of the substitute...

40 CFR 82.178 - Information required to be submitted.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... chemicals. The submitter must also provide supporting documentation or references. (6) Global warming impacts. Data on the total global warming potential of the substitute, including information on the GWP index and the indirect contributions to global warming caused by the production or use of the substitute...

Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela; Kotova, Lola; Teichmann, Claas; Sobolowski, Stefan P.; Vautard, Robert; Donnelly, Chantal; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Damm, Andrea; Sakalli, Abdulla; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.

2018-02-01

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long-term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross-sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan-European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross-sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability.

Arctic Security in a Warming World

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

2009). 3 Map based on: “Northwest Passage - Map of Arctic Sea Ice: Global Warming is Opening Canada’s Arctic” http://geology.com/articles/northwest...War College, February 17, 2009) 3. 5 Scott G. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown: the Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming ”, Foreign Affairs...april/kirkpatrick.pdf (accessed February 10, 2010). 45 Thomas R. McCarthy, Jr., Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic, Strategy

Increased Ocean Heat Convergence Into the High Latitudes With CO2 Doubling Enhances Polar-Amplified Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, H. A.; Rasch, P. J.; Rose, B. E. J.

2017-10-01

We isolate the role of the ocean in polar climate change by directly evaluating how changes in ocean dynamics with quasi-equilibrium CO2 doubling impact high-latitude climate. With CO2 doubling, the ocean heat flux convergence (OHFC) shifts poleward in winter in both hemispheres. Imposing this pattern of perturbed OHFC in a global climate model results in a poleward shift in ocean-to-atmosphere turbulent heat fluxes (both sensible and latent) and sea ice retreat; the high latitudes warm, while the midlatitudes cool, thereby amplifying polar warming. Furthermore, midlatitude cooling is propagated to the polar midtroposphere on isentropic surfaces, augmenting the (positive) lapse rate feedback at high latitudes. These results highlight the key role played by the partitioning of meridional energy transport changes between the atmosphere and ocean in high-latitude climate change.

Global Warming.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hileman, Bette

1989-01-01

States the foundations of the theory of global warming. Describes methodologies used to measure the changes in the atmosphere. Discusses steps currently being taken in the United States and the world to slow the warming trend. Recognizes many sources for the warming and the possible effects on the earth. (MVL)

Turkish Students' Ideas about Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kilinc, Ahmet; Stanisstreet, Martin; Boyes, Edward

2008-01-01

A questionnaire was used to explore the prevalence of ideas about global warming in Year 10 (age 15-16 years) school students in Turkey. The frequencies of individual scientific ideas and misconceptions about the causes, consequences and "cures" of global warming were identified. In addition, several general findings emerged from this…

Exploring the Sociopolitical Dimensions of Global Warming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sadler, Troy D.; Klosterman, Michelle L.

2009-01-01

The authors present an activity to help high school students conceptualize the sociopolitical complexity of global warming through an exploration of varied perspectives on the issue. They argue that socioscientific issues such as global warming present important contexts for learning science and that the social and political dimensions of these…

78 FR 21871 - Protection of Stratospheric Ozone: Revision of the Venting Prohibition for Specific Refrigerant...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-12

... Register GWP--Global warming potential HCFC-22--the chemical chlorodifluoromethane, CAS Reg No. 75-45-6... global warming potential. Second, EPA determines whether and to what extent such venting, release, or... discussed four types of environmental risks: ozone depletion potential, global warming potential, volatile...

Global Warming Threatens National Interests in the Arctic

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-26

Global warming has impacted the Arctic Ocean by significantly reducing the extent of the summer ice cover allowing greater access to the region...increased operations in the Arctic region, and DoD must continue to research and develop new and alternate energy sources for its forces. Global warming is

The Army’s Carbon Bootprint

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-06

GWP relative to CO2 • GWP is determined by stability of the chemical in the atmosphere and its capacity to influence global warming Global Warming Potential...GWP) Mr. Larry Webber/(410)436-1231/ Lawrence.webber.us.army.mil 06MAY2009 The Army’s Carbon Bootprint Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Global Warming Potential

Situational Influences upon Children's Beliefs about Global Warming and Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Devine-Wright, Patrick; Devine-Wright, Hannah; Fleming, Paul

2004-01-01

This paper explores children's beliefs about global warming and energy sources from a psychological perspective, focusing upon situational influences upon subjective beliefs, including perceived self-efficacy. The context of the research is one of growing concern at the potential impacts of global warming, yet demonstrably low levels of…

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

40 CFR 1037.115 - Other requirements.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... rate by multiplying it by the global warming potential of your refrigerant and dividing the product by 1430 (which is the global warming potential of HFC-134a). Apply this adjustment before comparing your leakage rate to the standard. Determine global warming potentials consistent with 40 CFR 86.1866. Note...

The effect of global warming on infectious diseases.

PubMed

Kurane, Ichiro

2010-12-01

Global warming has various effects on human health. The main indirect effects are on infectious diseases. Although the effects on infectious diseases will be detected worldwide, the degree and types of the effect are different, depending on the location of the respective countries and socioeconomical situations. Among infectious diseases, water- and foodborne infectious diseases and vector-borne infectious diseases are two main categories that are forecasted to be most affected. The effect on vector-borne infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever is mainly because of the expansion of the infested areas of vector mosquitoes and increase in the number and feeding activity of infected mosquitoes. There will be increase in the number of cases with water- and foodborne diarrhoeal diseases. Even with the strongest mitigation procedures, global warming cannot be avoided for decades. Therefore, implementation of adaptation measures to the effect of global warming is the most practical action we can take. It is generally accepted that the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases have not been apparent at this point yet in East Asia. However, these impacts will appear in one form or another if global warming continues to progress in future. Further research on the impacts of global warming on infectious diseases and on future prospects should be conducted.

Global Three-Dimensional Atmospheric Structure of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as Revealed by Two Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuckman, Scott Seele

This study is a first documentation of the structure of the entire AMO life cycle, including extreme and transition phases, throughout the global troposphere. The extreme phase climate signature is constructed based on the strongest and most robust patterns identified by two methods (linear correlation and composite analyses), two reanalysis datasets (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research and Twentieth Century Reanalysis, supplemented with precipitation data from the University of Delaware dataset) and data from two consecutive AMO cycles. The first characterization of the AMO transition phases uses a transition index based on the time derivative of AMO index. When trying to compare the zonal mean structure of AMO with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a literature search showed the zonal mean structure of ENSO remained unpublished, despite the otherwise generally well-characterized horizontal structures. Therefore this study includes a seasonal analysis of the ENSO zonal mean structure during boreal winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). The AMO extreme phase is characterized by a blend of low and middle latitude centers of action, with the associated tilt of geopotential height anomaly patterns consistent with off-equatorial heating patterns generated by the Held idealized model. The surface climate signature is connected to the upper air with baroclinic vertical structure over the North Atlantic but barotropic structures elsewhere. The associated zonal mean circulation features three circulation cells globally with strong inter-hemispheric mixing that suggests the traditional view of the AMO involving a Northern-Southern Hemisphere asymmetry is accurate only near the surface. The AMO transition phase features a more equatorial-based climate signature and associated geopotential height anomaly patterns consistent with the Matsuno-Gill idealized model. The zonal mean circulation of the transition phases features six, rather than three, circulation cells globally. The only baroclinic structure, over North America, and several barotropic structures are positioned west of corresponding similar structures during the AMO extreme phase, suggesting an eastward evolution of climate anomalies as the AMO progresses from a cool-to-warm transition phase to warm phase. The Pacific-based climate signature resembles the IPO warm phase and it is proposed the AMO and IPO are different basin-wide expressions of a single multidecadal oscillation. The identification of an AMO transition phase climate signature distinct from the extreme phase suggests transition phases are not neutral and may provide an additional source of information for characterizing climate cycles.

Unabated global surface temperature warming: evaluating the evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, T. R.; Arguez, A.

2015-12-01

New insights related to time-dependent bias corrections in global surface temperatures have led to higher rates of warming over the past few decades than previously reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Record high global temperatures in the past few years have also contributed to larger trends. The combination of these factors and new analyses of the rate of temperature change show unabated global warming since at least the mid-Twentieth Century. New time-dependent bias corrections account for: (1) differences in temperatures measured from ships and drifting buoys; (2) improved corrections to ship measured temperatures; and (3) the larger rates of warming in polar regions (particularly the Arctic). Since 1951, the period over which IPCC (2014) attributes over half of the observed global warming to human causes, it is shown that there has been a remarkably robust and sustained warming, punctuated with inter-annual and decadal variability. This finding is confirmed through simple trend analysis and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD). Trend analysis however, especially for decadal trends, is sensitive to selection bias of beginning and ending dates. EMD has no selection bias. Additionally, it can highlight both short- and long-term processes affecting the global temperature times series since it addresses both non-linear and non-stationary processes. For the new NOAA global temperature data set, our analyses do not support the notion of a hiatus or slowing of long-term global warming. However, sub-decadal periods of little (or no warming) and rapid warming can also be found, clearly showing the impact of inter-annual and decadal variability that previously has been attributed to both natural and human-induced non-greenhouse forcings.

Global temperatures and the global warming ``debate''

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aubrecht, Gordon

2009-04-01

Many ordinary citizens listen to pronouncements on talk radio casting doubt on anthropogenic global warming. Some op-ed columnists likewise cast doubts, and are read by credulous citizens. For example, on 8 March 2009, the Boston Globe published a column by Jeff Jacoby, ``Where's global warming?'' According to Jacoby, ``But it isn't such hints of a planetary warming trend that have been piling up in profusion lately. Just the opposite.'' He goes on to write, ``the science of climate change is not nearly as important as the religion of climate change,'' and blamed Al Gore for getting his mistaken views accepted. George Will at the Washington Post also expressed denial. As a result, 44% of U.S. voters, according to the January 19 2009 Rasmussen Report, blame long-term planetary trends for global warming, not human beings. Is there global cooling, as skeptics claim? We examine the temperature record.

Impacts of climate warming on terrestrial ectotherms across latitude.

PubMed

Deutsch, Curtis A; Tewksbury, Joshua J; Huey, Raymond B; Sheldon, Kimberly S; Ghalambor, Cameron K; Haak, David C; Martin, Paul R

2008-05-06

The impact of anthropogenic climate change on terrestrial organisms is often predicted to increase with latitude, in parallel with the rate of warming. Yet the biological impact of rising temperatures also depends on the physiological sensitivity of organisms to temperature change. We integrate empirical fitness curves describing the thermal tolerance of terrestrial insects from around the world with the projected geographic distribution of climate change for the next century to estimate the direct impact of warming on insect fitness across latitude. The results show that warming in the tropics, although relatively small in magnitude, is likely to have the most deleterious consequences because tropical insects are relatively sensitive to temperature change and are currently living very close to their optimal temperature. In contrast, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance and are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima, so that warming may even enhance their fitness. Available thermal tolerance data for several vertebrate taxa exhibit similar patterns, suggesting that these results are general for terrestrial ectotherms. Our analyses imply that, in the absence of ameliorating factors such as migration and adaptation, the greatest extinction risks from global warming may be in the tropics, where biological diversity is also greatest.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

2015-12-01

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

Global Warming, Africa and National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-15

African populations. This includes awareness from a global perspective in line with The Army Strategy for the Environment, the UN’s Intergovernmental...2 attention. At the time, computer models did not indicate a significant issue with global warming suggesting only a modest increase of 2°C9...projected climate changes. Current Science The science surrounding climate change and global warming was, until recently, a point of

Santa Barbara Basin Study Extends Global Climate Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, Sarah; Kennett, James; Nicholson, Craig; Pak, Dorothy; Sorlien, Christopher; Behl, Richard; Normark, William; Sliter, Ray; Hill, Tessa; Schimmelmann, Arndt; Cannariato, Kevin

2006-05-01

A fundamental goal of Earth science is to understand the remarkable instability of late Quarternary global climate prior to the beginning of the Holocene, about 11,000 years ago. This unusual climate behavior was characterized by millennial-scale climate oscillations on suborbital timescales, and a distinctive `Sawtooth' pattern of very abrupt glacial and stadial terminations (within decades) followed by more gradual global cooling [e.g., Dansgaard et al., 1993; Hendy and Kennett, 1999]. The fact that both major (glacial) and minor (stadial) cooling periods in Earth's climate were terminated by similar abrupt warming episodes suggests a common mechanism driving such rapid changes in global climate. Understanding the causes of this instability is crucial given developing concerns about global warming, yet knowledge about this climate behavior has been essentially confined to the last 150,000 years or so, owing to the absence of available sequences of sufficient age and chronological resolution. The high-resolution paleoclimate record from the Greenland ice cores is limited to about 110 thousand years ago (ka), and although Antarctic ice cores now extend back to more than 740 ka [European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica, 2004], these latter cores primarily provide information about high-latitude conditions at much lower resolution than is required to address abrupt climate change.

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

2018-04-01

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

The Warming Hiatus, Natural Variability and Thermal Ocean Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, A.; Moron, V.; Robertson, A. W.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Ghil, M.

2015-12-01

Long before the recent concern with the warming hiatus, Ghil and Vautard (1991, Nature) stated at the end of their abstract that "The oscillatory components [in global temperature time series] have combined (peak-to-peak) amplitudes of 0.2°C, and therefore limit our ability to predict whether the inferred secular warming of 0.005°C/yr will continue." Present capabilities of the advanced spectral methods introduced into the global warming problem by that paper permit us now to consider oscillatory aspects of natural variability in much greater detail. In a multivariate analysis of the upper-ocean thermal structure, we examine properties of the recent long-term changes and of the naturally occurring global-climate fluctuations on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. M. Ghil and associates (Ghil and Vautard 1991; Plaut et al. 1995, Science; Ghil et al. 2002, Rev. Geophys.), among others, have argued that this natural variability has some regularity embedded into it. Although the existence of such regularity on the interannual time scale is fairly well established by now, evidence for similar regularity on decadal and interdecadal time scales is more difficult to establish, due to the shortness of instrumental temperature data. To identify spatio-temporal patterns, we rely on the method of multichannel singular spectrum analysis [M-SSA; see Ghil et al. (2002) for a review] and on its recent improvements that help separate distinct patterns (Groth and Ghil 2011, Phys. Rev. E; Groth and Ghil 2015, J. Climate). Results on the temperature field from the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis (Carton and Giese 2008, Mon. Wea. Rev.; Giese and Ray 2011, J. Geophys. Res.) will be shown and contrasted with results on the HadCRUT surface temperature dataset (Morice et al. 2012, J. Geophys. Res.). We will focus, in particular, on the robustness of the geographical distribution of long-term changes in both data sets and discuss the significance of superimposed natural regularities in the traditional context of red noise (Hasselmann 1976, Tellus A). Finally, we will discuss the extent to which these regularities could have contributed to the recent hiatus in the long-term changes, as predicted by Ghil and Vautard (1991).

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr(-1) (range 0.01-0.09°C yr(-1)); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial basking sea turtles are responding to spatio-temporal sea surface temperature patterns

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.; Marks, Wendy

2015-01-01

Naturalists as early as Darwin observed terrestrial basking in green turtles (Chelonia mydas), but the distribution and environmental influences of this behaviour are poorly understood. Here, we examined 6 years of daily basking surveys in Hawaii and compared them with the phenology of local sea surface temperatures (SST). Data and models indicated basking peaks when SST is coolest, and we found this timeline consistent with bone stress markings. Next, we assessed the decadal SST profiles for the 11 global green turtle populations. Basking generally occurs when winter SST falls below 23°C. From 1990 to 2014, the SST for these populations warmed an average 0.04°C yr−1 (range 0.01–0.09°C yr−1); roughly three times the observed global average over this period. Owing to projected future warming at basking sites, we estimated terrestrial basking in green turtles may cease globally by 2100. To predict and manage for future climate change, we encourage a more detailed understanding for how climate influences organismal biology. PMID:25589483

Early Mars Climate Revisited With a Global Probability Map of Martian Valley Network Origin and Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grau Galofre, A.; Jellinek, M.; Osinski, G. R.

2016-12-01

Valley networks are among the most arresting features on the surface of Mars. Their provocative morphologic resemblance to river valleys on Earth has lead many scientists to argue for Martian river valleys in a "warm and wet" climate scenario, with conditions similar to the terrestrial mid-to-low latitudes. However, this warm scenario is difficult to reconcile with climate models for an Early Mars receiving radiation from a fainter young Sun. Moreover, recent models suggest a colder scenario, with conditions more similar to present day Greenland or Antarctica. Here we use three independent characterization schemes to show quantitative evidence for fluvial, glacial, groundwater sapping and subglacial meltwater channels to build the first global probability map of Martian valley networks. We distinguish a SW-NE corridor of fluvial drainage networks spanning latitudes from 30ºS to 30ºN. We identify additional widespread patterns related to glaciation, subglacial drainage and channels incised by groundwater springs. This global characterization of Martian valleys has profound implications for the average climate of early Mars as well as its variability in space and time.

Rice management interventions to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions: a review.

PubMed

Hussain, Saddam; Peng, Shaobing; Fahad, Shah; Khaliq, Abdul; Huang, Jianliang; Cui, Kehui; Nie, Lixiao

2015-03-01

Global warming is one of the gravest threats to crop production and environmental sustainability. Rice, the staple food of more than half of the world's population, is the most prominent cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture and gives way to global warming. The increasing demand for rice in the future has deployed tremendous concerns to reduce GHG emissions for minimizing the negative environmental impacts of rice cultivation. In this review, we presented a contemporary synthesis of existing data on how crop management practices influence emissions of GHGs in rice fields. We realized that modifications in traditional crop management regimes possess a huge potential to overcome GHG emissions. We examined and evaluated the different possible options and found that modifying tillage permutations and irrigation patterns, managing organic and fertilizer inputs, selecting suitable cultivar, and cropping regime can mitigate GHG emissions. Previously, many authors have discussed the feasibility principle and the influence of these practices on a single gas or, in particular, in the whole agricultural sector. Nonetheless, changes in management practices may influence more than one gas at the same time by different mechanisms or sometimes their effects may be antagonistic. Therefore, in the present attempt, we estimated the overall global warming potential of each approach to consider the magnitude of its effects on all gases and provided a comprehensive assessment of suitable crop management practices for reducing GHG emissions in rice culture.

Increased evapotranspiration demand in a Mediterranean climate might cause a decline in fungal yields under global warming.

PubMed

Ágreda, Teresa; Águeda, Beatriz; Olano, José M; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M; Fernández-Toirán, Marina

2015-09-01

Wild fungi play a critical role in forest ecosystems, and its recollection is a relevant economic activity. Understanding fungal response to climate is necessary in order to predict future fungal production in Mediterranean forests under climate change scenarios. We used a 15-year data set to model the relationship between climate and epigeous fungal abundance and productivity, for mycorrhizal and saprotrophic guilds in a Mediterranean pine forest. The obtained models were used to predict fungal productivity for the 2021-2080 period by means of regional climate change models. Simple models based on early spring temperature and summer-autumn rainfall could provide accurate estimates for fungal abundance and productivity. Models including rainfall and climatic water balance showed similar results and explanatory power for the analyzed 15-year period. However, their predictions for the 2021-2080 period diverged. Rainfall-based models predicted a maintenance of fungal yield, whereas water balance-based models predicted a steady decrease of fungal productivity under a global warming scenario. Under Mediterranean conditions fungi responded to weather conditions in two distinct periods: early spring and late summer-autumn, suggesting a bimodal pattern of growth. Saprotrophic and mycorrhizal fungi showed differences in the climatic control. Increased atmospheric evaporative demand due to global warming might lead to a drop in fungal yields during the 21st century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Pronounced differences between observed and CMIP5-simulated multidecadal climate variability in the twentieth century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravtsov, Sergey

2017-06-01

Identification and dynamical attribution of multidecadal climate undulations to either variations in external forcings or to internal sources is one of the most important topics of modern climate science, especially in conjunction with the issue of human-induced global warming. Here we utilize ensembles of twentieth century climate simulations to isolate the forced signal and residual internal variability in a network of observed and modeled climate indices. The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations. This single mode explains a major fraction of model-data differences over the entire climate index network considered; it may reflect either biases in the models' forced response or models' lack of requisite internal dynamics, or a combination of both.