A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting

Chapter 5. Using Habitat Models for Habitat Mapping and Monitoring

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Timothy J. Mersmann; Gretchen G. Moisen; Kevin S. McKelvey; Christina D. Vojta

2013-01-01

This chapter provides guidance for applying existing habitat models to map and monitor wildlife habitat. Chapter 2 addresses the use of conceptual models to create a solid foundation for selecting habitat attributes to monitor and to translate these attributes into quantifiable and reportable monitoring measures. Most wildlife species, however, require a complex suite...

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Hairy woodpecker

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sousa, Patrick J.

1987-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the hairy woodpecker (Picoides villosus). The model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimum habitat). HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Snapping turtle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graves, Brent M.; Anderson, Stanley H.

1987-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina). The model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) and 1.0 (optimum habitat). HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Spotted owl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laymon, Stephen A.; Salwasser, Hal; Barrett, Reginald H.

1985-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis). The model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimum habitat). HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Eastern meadowlark

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Richard L.; Sousa, Patrick J.

1982-01-01

Habitat preferences of the eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna) are described in this publication, which is one of a series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models. Habitat use information is presented in a synthesis of the literature on the species-habitat requirements of the eastern meadowlark, followed by the development of the HSI model. The model is presented in three formats: graphic, word, and mathematical, and is designed to provide information for use in impact assessment and habitat management activities.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Pine warbler

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Habitat preferences of the pine warbler (Dendroica pinus) are described in this publication, which is one of a series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models. Habitat use information is presented in a synthesis of the literature on the species-habitat requirements of the pine warbler, followed by the development of the HSI model. The model is presented in three formats: graphic, word, and mathematical, and is designed to provide information for use in impact assessment and habitat management activities.

Photosynthesis in chlorolichens: the influence of the habitat light regime.

PubMed

Piccotto, Massimo; Tretiach, Mauro

2010-11-01

The hypothesis that CO(2) gas exchange and chlorophyll a fluorescence (ChlaF) of lichens vary according to the light regimes of their original habitat, as observed in vascular plants, was tested by analysing the photosynthetic performance of 12 populations of seven dorsoventral, foliose lichens collected from open, south-exposed rocks to densely shaded forests. Light response curves were induced at optimum thallus water content and ChlaF emission curves at the species-specific photon flux at which the quantum yield of CO(2) assimilation is the highest and is saturating the photosynthetic process. Photosynthetic pigments were quantified in crude extracts. The results confirm that the maximum rate of gross photosynthesis is correlated with the chlorophyll content of lichens, which is influenced by light as well as by nitrogen availability. Like leaves, shade tolerant lichens emit more ChlaF than sun-loving ones, whereas the photosynthetic quantum conversion is higher in the latter.

Physical habitat classification and instream flow modeling to determine habitat availability during low-flow periods, North Fork Shenandoah River, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Hayes, Donald C.; Ruhl, Peter M.

2006-01-01

Increasing development and increasing water withdrawals for public, industrial, and agricultural water supply threaten to reduce streamflows in the Shenandoah River basin in Virginia. Water managers need more information to balance human water-supply needs with the daily streamflows necessary for maintaining the aquatic ecosystems. To meet the need for comprehensive information on hydrology, water supply, and instream-flow requirements of the Shenandoah River basin, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Northern Shenandoah Valley Regional Commission conducted a cooperative investigation of habitat availability during low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Historic streamflow data and empirical data on physical habitat, river hydraulics, fish community structure, and recreation were used to develop a physical habitat simulation model. Hydraulic measurements were made during low, medium, and high flows in six reaches at a total of 36 transects that included riffles, runs, and pools, and that had a variety of substrates and cover types. Habitat suitability criteria for fish were developed from detailed fish-community sampling and microhabitat observations. Fish were grouped into four guilds of species and life stages with similar habitat requirements. Simulated habitat was considered in the context of seasonal flow regimes to show the availability of flows that sustain suitable habitat during months when precipitation and streamflow are scarce. The North Fork Shenandoah River basin was divided into three management sections for analysis purposes: the upper section, middle section, and lower section. The months of July, August, and September were chosen to represent a low-flow period in the basin with low mean monthly flows, low precipitation, high temperatures, and high water withdrawals. Exceedance flows calculated from the combined data from these three months describe low-flow periods on the North Fork Shenandoah River. Long-term records from three

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Yellow perch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krieger, Douglas A.; Terrell, James W.; Nelson, Patrick C.

1983-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop riverine and lacustrine habitat models for yellow perch (Perca flavescens). The models are scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1 (optimally suitable habitat) for riverine, lacustrine, and palustrine habitat in the 48 contiguous United States. Habitat Suitability Indexes (HSI's) are designed for use with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Also included are discussions of Suitability Index (SI) curves as used in the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) and SI curves available for an IFIM analysis of yellow perch habitat.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Black-shouldered kite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faanes, Craig A.; Howard, Rebecca J.

1987-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a model for evaluating black-shouldered kite habitat quality. The model is scaled to produce an index between 0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimal habitat). Habitat suitability index models are designed for use with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Guidelines for model application are provided.

Potential impacts of climate change on flow regime and fish habitat in mountain rivers of the south-western Balkans.

PubMed

Papadaki, Christina; Soulis, Konstantinos; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; Martinez-Capel, Francisco; Zogaris, Stamatis; Ntoanidis, Lazaros; Dimitriou, Elias

2016-01-01

The climate change in the Mediterranean area is expected to have significant impacts on the aquatic ecosystems and particular in the mountain rivers and streams that often host important species such as the Salmo farioides, Karaman 1938. These impacts will most possibly affect the habitat availability for various aquatic species resulting to an essential alteration of the water requirements, either for dams or other water abstractions, in order to maintain the essential levels of ecological flow for the rivers. The main scope of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts on the hydrological patterns and typical biota for a south-western Balkan mountain river, the Acheloos. The altered flow regimes under different emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were estimated using a hydrological model and based on regional climate simulations over the study area. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) methodology was then used to assess the potential streamflow alterations in the studied river due to predicted climate change conditions. A fish habitat simulation method integrating univariate habitat suitability curves and hydraulic modeling techniques were used to assess the impacts on the relationships between the aquatic biota and hydrological status utilizing a sentinel species, the West Balkan trout. The most prominent effects of the climate change scenarios depict severe flow reductions that are likely to occur especially during the summer flows, changing the duration and depressing the magnitude of the natural low flow conditions. Weighted Usable Area-flow curves indicated the limitation of suitable habitat for the native trout. Finally, this preliminary application highlighted the potential of science-based hydrological and habitat simulation approaches that are relevant to both biological quality elements (fish) and current EU Water policy to serve as efficient tools for the estimation of possible climate

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Red-winged blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Short, Henry L.

1985-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus L.). The model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimum habitat). HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Mangrove Habitat Use by Juvenile Reef Fish: Meta-Analysis Reveals that Tidal Regime Matters More than Biogeographic Region

PubMed Central

Igulu, Mathias M.; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Dorenbosch, Martijn; Grol, Monique G. G.; Harborne, Alastair R.; Kimirei, Ismael A.; Mumby, Peter J.; Olds, Andrew D.; Mgaya, Yunus D.

2014-01-01

Identification of critical life-stage habitats is key to successful conservation efforts. Juveniles of some species show great flexibility in habitat use while other species rely heavily on a restricted number of juvenile habitats for protection and food. Considering the rapid degradation of coastal marine habitats worldwide, it is important to evaluate which species are more susceptible to loss of juvenile nursery habitats and how this differs across large biogeographic regions. Here we used a meta-analysis approach to investigate habitat use by juvenile reef fish species in tropical coastal ecosystems across the globe. Densities of juvenile fish species were compared among mangrove, seagrass and coral reef habitats. In the Caribbean, the majority of species showed significantly higher juvenile densities in mangroves as compared to seagrass beds and coral reefs, while for the Indo-Pacific region seagrass beds harbored the highest overall densities. Further analysis indicated that differences in tidal amplitude, irrespective of biogeographic region, appeared to be the major driver for this phenomenon. In addition, juvenile reef fish use of mangroves increased with increasing water salinity. In the Caribbean, species of specific families (e.g. Lutjanidae, Haemulidae) showed a higher reliance on mangroves or seagrass beds as juvenile habitats than other species, whereas in the Indo-Pacific family-specific trends of juvenile habitat utilization were less apparent. The findings of this study highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific tidal inundation regimes into marine spatial conservation planning and ecosystem based management. Furthermore, the significant role of water salinity and tidal access as drivers of mangrove fish habitat use implies that changes in seawater level and rainfall due to climate change may have important effects on how juvenile reef fish use nearshore seascapes in the future. PMID:25551761

Mangrove habitat use by juvenile reef fish: meta-analysis reveals that tidal regime matters more than biogeographic region.

PubMed

Igulu, Mathias M; Nagelkerken, Ivan; Dorenbosch, Martijn; Grol, Monique G G; Harborne, Alastair R; Kimirei, Ismael A; Mumby, Peter J; Olds, Andrew D; Mgaya, Yunus D

2014-01-01

Identification of critical life-stage habitats is key to successful conservation efforts. Juveniles of some species show great flexibility in habitat use while other species rely heavily on a restricted number of juvenile habitats for protection and food. Considering the rapid degradation of coastal marine habitats worldwide, it is important to evaluate which species are more susceptible to loss of juvenile nursery habitats and how this differs across large biogeographic regions. Here we used a meta-analysis approach to investigate habitat use by juvenile reef fish species in tropical coastal ecosystems across the globe. Densities of juvenile fish species were compared among mangrove, seagrass and coral reef habitats. In the Caribbean, the majority of species showed significantly higher juvenile densities in mangroves as compared to seagrass beds and coral reefs, while for the Indo-Pacific region seagrass beds harbored the highest overall densities. Further analysis indicated that differences in tidal amplitude, irrespective of biogeographic region, appeared to be the major driver for this phenomenon. In addition, juvenile reef fish use of mangroves increased with increasing water salinity. In the Caribbean, species of specific families (e.g. Lutjanidae, Haemulidae) showed a higher reliance on mangroves or seagrass beds as juvenile habitats than other species, whereas in the Indo-Pacific family-specific trends of juvenile habitat utilization were less apparent. The findings of this study highlight the importance of incorporating region-specific tidal inundation regimes into marine spatial conservation planning and ecosystem based management. Furthermore, the significant role of water salinity and tidal access as drivers of mangrove fish habitat use implies that changes in seawater level and rainfall due to climate change may have important effects on how juvenile reef fish use nearshore seascapes in the future.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Red king crab

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jewett, Stephen C.; Onuf, Christopher P.

1988-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for evaluating habitat of different life stages of red king crab (Paralithodes camtschatica). A model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) and 1.0 (optimum habitat) in Alaskan coastal waters, especially in the Gulf of Alaska and the southeastern Bering Sea. HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Population structure of the hydrocoral Millepora platyphylla in habitats experiencing different flow regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia

PubMed Central

Mercière, Alexandre; Vermeij, Mark J. A.; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

While the fire coral Millepora platyphylla is an important component of Indo-Pacific reefs, where it thrives in a wide range of environments, the ecological and biological processes driving its distribution and population structure are not well understood. Here, we quantified this species’ population structure in five habitats with contrasting hydrodynamic regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia; two in the fore reef: mid and upper slopes, and three in the lagoon: back, fringing and patch reefs. A total of 3651 colonies of fire corals were mapped and measured over 45,000 m2 of surveyed reef. Due to the species’ sensitivity to fragmentation in response to strong water movement, hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. waves, pass and lagoonal circulation) corresponded to marked differences in colony size distributions, morphology and recruitment dynamics among habitats. The size structure varied among reef habitats with higher proportions of larger colonies in calm nearshore reefs (fringing and patch reefs), while populations were dominated by smaller colonies in the exposed fore reefs. The highest densities of fire corals were recorded in fore reef habitats (0.12–0.20 n.m-2) where the proportion of recruits and juveniles was higher at mid slope populations (49.3%) than on the upper slope near where waves break (29.0%). In the latter habitat, most colonies grew as vertical sheets on encrusting bases making them more vulnerable to colony fragmentation, whereas fire corals were encrusting or massive in all other habitats. The lowest densities of M. platyphylla occurred in lagoonal habitats (0.02–0.04 n.m-2) characterized by a combination of low water movement and other physical and biological stressors. This study reports the first evidence of population structure of fire corals in two common reef environments and illustrates the importance of water flow in driving population dynamic processes of these reef-building species. PMID:28273119

Population structure of the hydrocoral Millepora platyphylla in habitats experiencing different flow regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia.

PubMed

Dubé, Caroline E; Mercière, Alexandre; Vermeij, Mark J A; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

While the fire coral Millepora platyphylla is an important component of Indo-Pacific reefs, where it thrives in a wide range of environments, the ecological and biological processes driving its distribution and population structure are not well understood. Here, we quantified this species' population structure in five habitats with contrasting hydrodynamic regimes in Moorea, French Polynesia; two in the fore reef: mid and upper slopes, and three in the lagoon: back, fringing and patch reefs. A total of 3651 colonies of fire corals were mapped and measured over 45,000 m2 of surveyed reef. Due to the species' sensitivity to fragmentation in response to strong water movement, hydrodynamic conditions (e.g. waves, pass and lagoonal circulation) corresponded to marked differences in colony size distributions, morphology and recruitment dynamics among habitats. The size structure varied among reef habitats with higher proportions of larger colonies in calm nearshore reefs (fringing and patch reefs), while populations were dominated by smaller colonies in the exposed fore reefs. The highest densities of fire corals were recorded in fore reef habitats (0.12-0.20 n.m-2) where the proportion of recruits and juveniles was higher at mid slope populations (49.3%) than on the upper slope near where waves break (29.0%). In the latter habitat, most colonies grew as vertical sheets on encrusting bases making them more vulnerable to colony fragmentation, whereas fire corals were encrusting or massive in all other habitats. The lowest densities of M. platyphylla occurred in lagoonal habitats (0.02-0.04 n.m-2) characterized by a combination of low water movement and other physical and biological stressors. This study reports the first evidence of population structure of fire corals in two common reef environments and illustrates the importance of water flow in driving population dynamic processes of these reef-building species.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Yellow-headed blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Richard L.

1982-01-01

Habitat preferences of the yellow-headed blackbird (Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus) are described in this publication. It is one of a series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models and was developed through an analysis of available infomration on the species-habitat requirements of the species. Habitat use information is presented in a review of the literature, followed by the development of an HSI model, designed for use in impact assessment and habitat management activities.

Modeling Food Delivery Dynamics For Juvenile Salmonids Under Variable Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Utz, R.; Anderson, K.; Nisbet, R.

2010-12-01

Traditional approaches for assessing instream flow needs for salmonids have typically focused on the importance of physical habitat in determining fish habitat selection. This somewhat simplistic approach does not account for differences in food delivery rates to salmonids that arise due to spatial variability in river morphology, hydraulics and temporal variations in the flow regime. Explicitly linking how changes in the flow regime influences food delivery dynamics is an important step in advancing process-based bioenergetic models that seek to predict growth rates of salmonids across various life-stages. Here we investigate how food delivery rates for juvenile salmonids vary both spatially and with flow magnitude in a meandering reach of the Merced River, CA. We utilize a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model and discrete particle tracking algorithm to simulate invertebrate drift transport rates at baseflow and a near-bankfull discharge. Modeling results indicate that at baseflow, the maximum drift density occurs in the channel thalweg, while drift densities decrease towards the channel margins due to the process of organisms settling out of the drift. During high-flow events, typical of spring dam-releases, the invertebrate drift transport pathway follows a similar trajectory along the high velocity core and the drift concentrations are greatest in the channel centerline, though the zone of invertebrate transport occupies a greater fraction of the channel width. Based on invertebrate supply rates alone, feeding juvenile salmonids would be expected to be distributed down the channel centerline where the maximum predicted food delivery rates are located in this reach. However, flow velocities in these channel sections are beyond maximum sustainable swimming speeds for most juvenile salmonids. Our preliminary findings suggest that a lack of low velocity refuge may prevent juvenile salmonids from deriving energy from the areas with maximum drift density in this

A spatial model to assess the effects of hydropower operations on Columbia River fall Chinook Salmon spawning habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Anglin, Donald R.; Haeseker, Steven L.; Skalicky, Joseph J.; Schaller, Howard

2009-01-01

Priest Rapids Dam on the Columbia River produces large daily and hourly streamflow fluctuations throughout the Hanford Reach during the period when fall Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha are selecting spawning habitat, constructing redds, and actively engaged in spawning. Concern over the detrimental effects of these fluctuations prompted us to quantify the effects of variable flows on the amount and persistence of fall Chinook salmon spawning habitat in the Hanford Reach. Specifically, our goal was to develop a management tool capable of quantifying the effects of current and alternative hydrographs on predicted spawning habitat in a spatially explicit manner. Toward this goal, we modeled the water velocities and depths that fall Chinook salmon experienced during the 2004 spawning season, plus what they would probably have experienced under several alternative (i.e., synthetic) hydrographs, using both one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models. To estimate spawning habitat under existing or alternative hydrographs, we used cell-based modeling and logistic regression to construct and compare numerous spatial habitat models. We found that fall Chinook salmon were more likely to spawn at locations where velocities were persistently greater than 1 m/s and in areas where fluctuating water velocities were reduced. Simulations of alternative dam operations indicate that the quantity of spawning habitat is expected to increase as streamflow fluctuations are reduced during the spawning season. The spatial habitat models that we developed provide management agencies with a quantitative tool for predicting, in a spatially explicit manner, the effects of different flow regimes on fall Chinook salmon spawning habitat in the Hanford Reach. In addition to characterizing temporally varying habitat conditions, our research describes an analytical approach that could be applied in other highly variable aquatic systems.

The role of the geophysical template and environmental regimes in controlling stream-living trout populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penaluna, Brooke E.; Railsback, Steve F.; Dunham, Jason B.; Johnson, S.; Bilby, Richard E.; Skaugset, Arne E.

2015-01-01

The importance of multiple processes and instream factors to aquatic biota has been explored extensively, but questions remain about how local spatiotemporal variability of aquatic biota is tied to environmental regimes and the geophysical template of streams. We used an individual-based trout model to explore the relative role of the geophysical template versus environmental regimes on biomass of trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii). We parameterized the model with observed data from each of the four headwater streams (their local geophysical template and environmental regime) and then ran 12 simulations where we replaced environmental regimes (stream temperature, flow, turbidity) of a given stream with values from each neighboring stream while keeping the geophysical template fixed. We also performed single-parameter sensitivity analyses on the model results from each of the four streams. Although our modeled findings show that trout biomass is most responsive to changes in the geophysical template of streams, they also reveal that biomass is restricted by available habitat during seasonal low flow, which is a product of both the stream’s geophysical template and flow regime. Our modeled results suggest that differences in the geophysical template among streams render trout more or less sensitive to environmental change, emphasizing the importance of local fish–habitat relationships in streams.

Network-based Prediction of Lotic Thermal Regimes Across New England

EPA Science Inventory

Thermal regimes are a critical factor in models predicting effects of watershed management activities on fish habitat suitability. We have assembled a database of lotic temperature time series across New England (> 7000 station-year combinations) from state and Federal data sour...

Matrix population models as a tool in development of habitat models

Treesearch

Gregory D. Hayward; David B. McDonald

1997-01-01

Building sophisticated habitat models for conservation of owls must stem from an understanding of the relative quality of habitats at a variety of geographic and temporal scales. Developing these models requires knowing the relationship between habitat conditions and owl performance. What measure should be used to compare the quality of habitats? Matrix population...

Persistence in a Two-Dimensional Moving-Habitat Model.

PubMed

Phillips, Austin; Kot, Mark

2015-11-01

Environmental changes are forcing many species to track suitable conditions or face extinction. In this study, we use a two-dimensional integrodifference equation to analyze whether a population can track a habitat that is moving due to climate change. We model habitat as a simple rectangle. Our model quickly leads to an eigenvalue problem that determines whether the population persists or declines. After surveying techniques to solve the eigenvalue problem, we highlight three findings that impact conservation efforts such as reserve design and species risk assessment. First, while other models focus on habitat length (parallel to the direction of habitat movement), we show that ignoring habitat width (perpendicular to habitat movement) can lead to overestimates of persistence. Dispersal barriers and hostile landscapes that constrain habitat width greatly decrease the population's ability to track its habitat. Second, for some long-distance dispersal kernels, increasing habitat length improves persistence without limit; for other kernels, increasing length is of limited help and has diminishing returns. Third, it is not always best to orient the long side of the habitat in the direction of climate change. Evidence suggests that the kurtosis of the dispersal kernel determines whether it is best to have a long, wide, or square habitat. In particular, populations with platykurtic dispersal benefit more from a wide habitat, while those with leptokurtic dispersal benefit more from a long habitat. We apply our model to the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly (Parnassius smintheus).

HABITAT MODELING APPROACHES FOR RESTORATION SITE SELECTION

EPA Science Inventory

Numerous modeling approaches have been used to develop predictive models of species-environment and species-habitat relationships. These models have been used in conservation biology and habitat or species management, but their application to restoration efforts has been minimal...

Climate change, estuaries and anadromous fish habitat in the northeastern United States: models, downscaling and uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhling, B.; Gaitan, C. F.; Tommasi, D.; Saba, V. S.; Stock, C. A.; Dixon, K. W.

2016-02-01

Estuaries of the northeastern United States provide essential habitat for many anadromous fishes, across a range of life stages. Climate change is likely to impact estuarine environments and habitats through multiple pathways. Increasing air temperatures will result in a warming water column, and potentially increased stratification. In addition, changes to precipitation patterns may alter freshwater inflow dynamics, leading to altered seasonal salinity regimes. However, the spatial resolution of global climate models is generally insufficient to resolve these processes at the scale of individual estuaries. Global models can be downscaled to a regional resolution using a variety of dynamical and statistical methods. In this study, we examined projections of estuarine conditions, and future habitat extent, for several anadromous fishes in the Chesapeake Bay using different statistical downscaling methods. Sources of error from physical and biological models were quantified, and key areas of uncertainty were highlighted. Results suggested that future projections of the distribution and recruitment of species most strongly linked to freshwater flow dynamics had the highest levels of uncertainty. The sensitivity of different life stages to environmental conditions, and the population-level responses of anadromous species to climate change, were identified as important areas for further research.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-01-01

Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

Applying a two-dimensional morphodynamic model to assess impacts to Chinook salmon spawning habitat from dam removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, A. A.; Crosato, A.; Omer, A. Y. A.; Bregoli, F.

2017-12-01

The need for accurate and robust predictive methods of assessing fluvial ecosystems is highlighted by the accelerating practice of dam removal. Dam removal can be a restorative measure, but the sudden release of impounded sediment and change in flow regime may negatively impact aquatic biota and their habitat. This study assesses the performance of a quasi-three-dimensional morphodynamic numerical model, coupled with habitat suitability indices, to predict short-term impacts to Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) spawning habitat from dam removal. The 2007 removal of Marmot Dam on the Sandy River (Oregon, U.S.A.) is used as a case study. Delft3D-FLOW is employed to simulate changes in river channel topography, sediment composition and hydrodynamic conditions for a 20-kilometer reach of the Sandy River. The transport of non-uniform sediment and three-dimensional flow effects are included in the model. Output parameters such as flow depth, velocity and substrate are processed to evaluate habitat quality in the year following the Marmot Dam removal. Impacts are evaluated across four life-stages of Chinook salmon. As a hindcast analysis, the morphodynamic model sufficiently reproduces the evolution of river morphology at the reach-scale while requiring only a low level of calibration. The model performs well in predicting impacts to fish passage, but carries more uncertainty for developing life stages. By coupling flow-sediment-biota interactions, this method shows strong potential for habitat assessment in unsteady and non-uniform environments. Computation time is a primary constraint, as it limits grid-cell resolution, modelling of suspended sediment and capacity to characterize the sediment grain size distribution. Research on the effects of suspended sediment on habitat quality is ongoing, and further research is recommended for modelling reservoir erosion processes numerically.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Diamondback terrapin (nesting) - Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Palmer, William M.; Cordes, Carroll L.

1988-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model for the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin). The model consolidates habitat use information into a framework appropriate for field application, and is scaled to produce an index between 0.0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1.0 (optimum habitat). HSI models are designed to be used with Habitat Evaluation Procedures previously developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Evaluating the habitat capability model for Merriam's turkeys

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Stanley H. Anderson

1995-01-01

Habitat capability (HABCAP) models for wildlife assist land managers in predicting the consequences of their management decisions. Models must be tested and refined prior to using them in management planning. We tested the predicted patterns of habitat selection of the R2 HABCAP model using observed patterns of habitats selected by radio-marked Merriam’s turkey (

Evaluation of a habitat suitability index model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, A.H.; Cade, B.S.; Stauffer, D.F.

2002-01-01

We assisted with development of a model for maternity habitat of the Indiana bat (Myotis soda/is), for use in conducting assessments of projects potentially impacting this endangered species. We started with an existing model, modified that model in a workshop, and evaluated the revised model, using data previously collected by others. Our analyses showed that higher indices of habitat suitability were associated with sites where Indiana bats were present and, thus, the model may be useful for identifying suitable habitat. Utility of the model, however, was based on a single component-density of suitable roost trees. Percentage of landscape in forest did not allow differentiation between sites occupied and not occupied by Indiana bats. Moreover, in spite of a general opinion by participants in the workshop that bodies of water were highly productive feeding areas and that a diversity of feeding habitats was optimal, we found no evidence to support either hypothesis.

Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Heino, Jani; Ryder, Darren S; Chessman, Bruce C; Growns, Ivor O; Thompson, Ross M; Gido, Keith B

2018-05-01

Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water-resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape-scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi-scaled understanding of

Defining environmental flows requirements at regional scale by using meso-scale habitat models and catchments classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezza, Paolo; Comoglio, Claudio; Rosso, Maurizio

2010-05-01

The alterations of the natural flow regime and in-stream channel modification due to abstraction from watercourses act on biota through an hydraulic template, which is mediated by channel morphology. Modeling channel hydro-morphology is needed in order to evaluate how much habitat is available for selected fauna under specific environmental conditions, and consequently to assist decision makers in planning options for regulated river management. Meso-scale habitat modeling methods (e.g., MesoHABSIM) offer advantages over the traditional physical habitat evaluation, involving a larger range of habitat variables, allowing longer length of surveyed rivers and enabling understanding of fish behavior at larger spatial scale. In this study we defined a bottom-up method for the ecological discharge evaluation at regional scale, focusing on catchments smaller than 50 km2, most of them located within mountainous areas of Apennines and Alps mountain range in Piedmont (NW Italy). Within the regional study domain we identified 30 representative catchments not affected by water abstractions in order to build up the habitat-flow relationship, to be used as reference when evaluating regulated watercourses or new projects. For each stream we chose a representative reach and obtained fish data by sampling every single functional habitat (i.e. meso-habitat) within the site, keeping separated each area by using nets. The target species were brown trout (Salmo trutta), marble trout (Salmo trutta marmoratus), bullhead (Cottus gobius), chub (Leuciscus cephalus), barbel (Barbus barbus), vairone (Leuciscus souffia) and other rheophilic Cyprinids. The fish habitat suitability criteria was obtained from the observation of habitat use by a selected organism described with a multivariate relationship between habitat characteristics and fish presence. Habitat type, mean slope, cover, biotic choriotop and substrate, stream depth and velocity, water pH, temperature and percentage of dissolved

Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hecht, Matthew W.; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

This monograph is the first to survey progress in realistic simulation in a strongly eddying regime made possible by recent increases in computational capability. Its contributors comprise the leading researchers in this important and constantly evolving field. Divided into three parts, • Oceanographic Processes and Regimes: Fundamental Questions • Ocean Dynamics and State: From Regional to Global Scale, and • Modeling at the Mesoscale: State of the Art and Future Directions the volume details important advances in physical oceanography based on eddy resolving ocean modeling. It captures the state of the art and discusses issues that ocean modelers must consider in order to effectively contribute to advancing current knowledge, from subtleties of the underlying fluid dynamical equations to meaningful comparison with oceanographic observations and leading-edge model development. It summarizes many of the important results which have emerged from ocean modeling in an eddying regime, for those interested broadly in the physical science. More technical topics are intended to address the concerns of those actively working in the field.

Physical habitat simulation system reference manual: version II

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milhous, Robert T.; Updike, Marlys A.; Schneider, Diane M.

1989-01-01

There are four major components of a stream system that determine the productivity of the fishery (Karr and Dudley 1978). These are: (1) flow regime, (2) physical habitat structure (channel form, substrate distribution, and riparian vegetation), (3) water quality (including temperature), and (4) energy inputs from the watershed (sediments, nutrients, and organic matter). The complex interaction of these components determines the primary production, secondary production, and fish population of the stream reach. The basic components and interactions needed to simulate fish populations as a function of management alternatives are illustrated in Figure I.1. The assessment process utilizes a hierarchical and modular approach combined with computer simulation techniques. The modular components represent the "building blocks" for the simulation. The quality of the physical habitat is a function of flow and, therefore, varies in quality and quantity over the range of the flow regime. The conceptual framework of the Incremental Methodology and guidelines for its application are described in "A Guide to Stream Habitat Analysis Using the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology" (Bovee 1982). Simulation of physical habitat is accomplished using the physical structure of the stream and streamflow. The modification of physical habitat by temperature and water quality is analyzed separately from physical habitat simulation. Temperature in a stream varies with the seasons, local meteorological conditions, stream network configuration, and the flow regime; thus, the temperature influences on habitat must be analysed on a stream system basis. Water quality under natural conditions is strongly influenced by climate and the geological materials, with the result that there is considerable natural variation in water quality. When we add the activities of man, the possible range of water quality possibilities becomes rather large. Consequently, water quality must also be analysed on a

Habitat features and predictive habitat modeling for the Colorado chipmunk in southern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rivieccio, M.; Thompson, B.C.; Gould, W.R.; Boykin, K.G.

2003-01-01

Two subspecies of Colorado chipmunk (state threatened and federal species of concern) occur in southern New Mexico: Tamias quadrivittatus australis in the Organ Mountains and T. q. oscuraensis in the Oscura Mountains. We developed a GIS model of potentially suitable habitat based on vegetation and elevation features, evaluated site classifications of the GIS model, and determined vegetation and terrain features associated with chipmunk occurrence. We compared GIS model classifications with actual vegetation and elevation features measured at 37 sites. At 60 sites we measured 18 habitat variables regarding slope, aspect, tree species, shrub species, and ground cover. We used logistic regression to analyze habitat variables associated with chipmunk presence/absence. All (100%) 37 sample sites (28 predicted suitable, 9 predicted unsuitable) were classified correctly by the GIS model regarding elevation and vegetation. For 28 sites predicted suitable by the GIS model, 18 sites (64%) appeared visually suitable based on habitat variables selected from logistic regression analyses, of which 10 sites (36%) were specifically predicted as suitable habitat via logistic regression. We detected chipmunks at 70% of sites deemed suitable via the logistic regression models. Shrub cover, tree density, plant proximity, presence of logs, and presence of rock outcrop were retained in the logistic model for the Oscura Mountains; litter, shrub cover, and grass cover were retained in the logistic model for the Organ Mountains. Evaluation of predictive models illustrates the need for multi-stage analyses to best judge performance. Microhabitat analyses indicate prospective needs for different management strategies between the subspecies. Sensitivities of each population of the Colorado chipmunk to natural and prescribed fire suggest that partial burnings of areas inhabited by Colorado chipmunks in southern New Mexico may be beneficial. These partial burnings may later help avoid a fire

Managing fish habitat for flow and temperature extremes ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Summer low flows and stream temperature maxima are key drivers affecting the sustainability of fish populations. Thus, it is critical to understand both the natural templates of spatiotemporal variability, how these are shifting due to anthropogenic influences of development and climate change, and how these impacts can be moderated by natural and constructed green infrastructure. Low flow statistics of New England streams have been characterized using a combination of regression equations to describe long-term averages as a function of indicators of hydrologic regime (rain- versus snow-dominated), precipitation, evapotranspiration or temperature, surface water storage, baseflow recession rates, and impervious cover. Difference equations have been constructed to describe interannual variation in low flow as a function of changing air temperature, precipitation, and ocean-atmospheric teleconnection indices. Spatial statistical network models have been applied to explore fine-scale variability of thermal regimes along stream networks in New England as a function of variables describing natural and altered energy inputs, groundwater contributions, and retention time. Low flows exacerbate temperature impacts by reducing thermal inertia of streams to energy inputs. Based on these models, we can construct scenarios of fish habitat suitability using current and projected future climate and the potential for preservation and restoration of historic habitat regimes th

Modeling the relations between flow regime components, species traits, and spawning success of fishes in warmwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craven, S.W.; Peterson, J.T.; Freeman, Mary C.; Kwak, T.J.; Irwin, E.

2010-01-01

Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management. ?? 2010 US Government.

Modelling the far field hydro-environmental impacts of tidal farms - A focus on tidal regime, inter-tidal zones and flushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nash, S.; O'Brien, N.; Olbert, A.; Hartnett, M.

2014-10-01

The introduction of tidal stream turbines into water bodies can have an impact on the environment due to changes in the hydrodynamic flow fields resulting from the extraction of energy by the tidal turbines. Water levels, tidal currents and flushing characteristics could potentially be significantly altered with the introduction of tidal turbine farms, which could lead to possible loss of habitat and a change in the tidal regime. Therefore, planning of tidal turbines field deployments must take into account possible hydro-environmental impacts. This paper describes research undertaken by the authors in the Shannon Estuary to predict changes in the tidal regime and flushing characteristics, with the introduction of tidal turbine farms of different array configurations. The model was simulated using a 2D hydrodynamic model that was modified to incorporate the effects of tidal turbine fields. Water levels are shown to have been affected with the inclusion of turbines, especially in areas upstream of the turbine farm where inter-tidal zones could become predominately inundated resulting in loss of habitat in the estuary. Flushing parameters were also shown to be altered with the inclusion of turbines, with residence time shown to be increased, which could change pollutant transport in the region.

Habitat associated with Barred Owl (Strix varia) locations in southeastern Manitoba: a review of a habitat model

Treesearch

James R. Duncan; Amy E. Kearns

1997-01-01

A Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model was developed for the Barred Owl (Strix varia) in southeastern Manitoba. An initial validation of the model was performed within three sizes of circular plots (314, 1,256, and 2,827 ha) centered on 28 Barred Owl locations. The model was able to predict suitable habitat at the 314 ha scale. Forest habitat...

Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho

2017-07-01

Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

A test of the habitat suitability model for Merriam's wild turkeys

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Stanley H. Anderson

1996-01-01

An important research area regarding the wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) is development of sound habitat models. Habitat models provide standardized methods to quantify wild turkey habitat and stimulate new research hypotheses. Habitat suitability index (HSI) models show species-habitat relationships on a scale of O-l, with 1 being optimum. A...

Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

2016-11-01

This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

Landscape development and mule deer habitat in Central Oregon

Treesearch

James A. Duncan; Theresa Burcsu

2012-01-01

This research explored the ecological consequences of rural residential development and different management regimes on a tract of former industrial timberland in central Oregon known as the Bull Springs. Forage quality and habitat suitability models for mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) winter range were joined to the outputs of a spatially explicit...

Two-dimensional habitat modeling in the Yellowstone/Upper Missouri River system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, T. J.; Bovee, K.D.; Bowen, Z.H.

1997-01-01

This study is being conducted to provide the aquatic biology component of a decision support system being developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. In an attempt to capture the habitat needs of Great Plains fish communities we are looking beyond previous habitat modeling methods. Traditional habitat modeling approaches have relied on one-dimensional hydraulic models and lumped compositional habitat metrics to describe aquatic habitat. A broader range of habitat descriptors is available when both composition and configuration of habitats is considered. Habitat metrics that consider both composition and configuration can be adapted from terrestrial biology. These metrics are most conveniently accessed with spatially explicit descriptors of the physical variables driving habitat composition. Two-dimensional hydrodynamic models have advanced to the point that they may provide the spatially explicit description of physical parameters needed to address this problem. This paper reports progress to date on applying two-dimensional hydraulic and habitat models on the Yellowstone and Missouri Rivers and uses examples from the Yellowstone River to illustrate the configurational metrics as a new tool for assessing riverine habitats.

Predicting Thermal Regimes of Stream Networks Across New England: Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

EPA Science Inventory

Thermal regime is a critical factor in models predicting joint effects of watershed management activities and climate change on habitat suitability for fish. We used a database of lotic temperature time series across New England (> 7000 station-year combinations) from state a...

Modeling sensitive elasmobranch habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennino, M. Grazia; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José Marí; a

2013-10-01

Basic information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically important species is essential for their management and protection. In the Mediterranean Sea there is increasing concern over elasmobranch species because their biological (ecological) characteristics make them highly vulnerable to fishing pressure. Their removal could affect the structure and function of marine ecosystems, inducing changes in trophic interactions at the community level due to the selective elimination of predators or prey species, competitors and species replacement. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models are used to map the sensitive habitats of the three most caught elasmobranch species (Galeus melastomus, Scyliorhinus canicula, Etmopterus spinax) in the western Mediterranean Sea, based on fishery-dependent bottom trawl data. Results show that habitats associated with hard substrata and sandy beds, mainly in deep waters and with a high seabed gradient, have a greater probability registering the presence of the studied species than those associated with muddy shallow waters. Temperature and chlorophyll-α concentration show a negative relationship with S. canicula occurrence. Our results identify some of the sensitive habitats for elasmobranchs in the western Mediterranean Sea (GSA06 South), providing essential and easy-to-use interpretation tools, such as predictive distribution maps, with the final aim of improving management and conservation of these vulnerable species.

Bridging the gap between habitat-modeling research and bird conservation with dynamic landscape and population models

Treesearch

Frank R., III Thompson

2009-01-01

Habitat models are widely used in bird conservation planning to assess current habitat or populations and to evaluate management alternatives. These models include species-habitat matrix or database models, habitat suitability models, and statistical models that predict abundance. While extremely useful, these approaches have some limitations.

Obtaining environmental measures to facilitate vertebrate habitat modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karl, J.W.; Wright, N.M.; Heglund, P.J.; Scott, J.M.

1999-01-01

Published literature generally lacks habitat information needed to adequately model the habitats of most wildlife species at large scales (>1:100,000). We searched in primary and secondary literature for occurrence of several potentially useful habitat measures for 20 species of interest to the Idaho Department of Fish and Game. We found adequate information for modeling only the habitats of certain game species and species of special interest. We suggest that many more researchers could collect simple habitat information regarding vegetation composition and structure, topographic features, soils, temperature, and distance to special landscape features such that current research expenses would not be increased significantly. We recommend that habitat data be consistently reported in peer-reviewed literature or deposited into a central data repository. This will not only help fill the gaps in our current knowledge of wildlife but also place it in a format that is readily accessible by the scientific community.

Methodology Development of a Gas-Liquid Dynamic Flow Regime Transition Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doup, Benjamin Casey

Current reactor safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5, TRACE, and CATHARE, use flow regime maps or flow regime transition criteria that were developed for static fully-developed two-phase flows to choose interfacial transfer models that are necessary to solve the two-fluid model. The flow regime is therefore difficult to identify near the flow regime transitions, in developing two-phase flows, and in transient two-phase flows. Interfacial area transport equations were developed to more accurately predict the dynamic nature of two-phase flows. However, other model coefficients are still flow regime dependent. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the flow regime is still important. In the current work, the methodology for the development of a dynamic flow regime transition model that uses the void fraction and interfacial area concentration obtained by solving three-field the two-fluid model and two-group interfacial area transport equation is investigated. To develop this model, detailed local experimental data are obtained, the two-group interfacial area transport equations are revised, and a dynamic flow regime transition model is evaluated using a computational fluid dynamics model. Local experimental data is acquired for 63 different flow conditions in bubbly, cap-bubbly, slug, and churn-turbulent flow regimes. The measured parameters are the group-1 and group-2 bubble number frequency, void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and interfacial bubble velocities. The measurements are benchmarked by comparing the prediction of the superficial gas velocities, determined using the local measurements with those determined from volumetric flow rate measurements and the agreement is generally within +/-20%. The repeatability four-sensor probe construction process is within +/-10%. The repeatability of the measurement process is within +/-7%. The symmetry of the test section is examined and the average agreement is within +/-5.3% at z/D = 10 and +/-3.4% at z/D = 32

An iterative and targeted sampling design informed by habitat suitability models for detecting focal plant species over extensive areas.

PubMed

Wang, Ophelia; Zachmann, Luke J; Sesnie, Steven E; Olsson, Aaryn D; Dickson, Brett G

2014-01-01

Prioritizing areas for management of non-native invasive plants is critical, as invasive plants can negatively impact plant community structure. Extensive and multi-jurisdictional inventories are essential to prioritize actions aimed at mitigating the impact of invasions and changes in disturbance regimes. However, previous work devoted little effort to devising sampling methods sufficient to assess the scope of multi-jurisdictional invasion over extensive areas. Here we describe a large-scale sampling design that used species occurrence data, habitat suitability models, and iterative and targeted sampling efforts to sample five species and satisfy two key management objectives: 1) detecting non-native invasive plants across previously unsampled gradients, and 2) characterizing the distribution of non-native invasive plants at landscape to regional scales. Habitat suitability models of five species were based on occurrence records and predictor variables derived from topography, precipitation, and remotely sensed data. We stratified and established field sampling locations according to predicted habitat suitability and phenological, substrate, and logistical constraints. Across previously unvisited areas, we detected at least one of our focal species on 77% of plots. In turn, we used detections from 2011 to improve habitat suitability models and sampling efforts in 2012, as well as additional spatial constraints to increase detections. These modifications resulted in a 96% detection rate at plots. The range of habitat suitability values that identified highly and less suitable habitats and their environmental conditions corresponded to field detections with mixed levels of agreement. Our study demonstrated that an iterative and targeted sampling framework can address sampling bias, reduce time costs, and increase detections. Other studies can extend the sampling framework to develop methods in other ecosystems to provide detection data. The sampling methods

An Iterative and Targeted Sampling Design Informed by Habitat Suitability Models for Detecting Focal Plant Species over Extensive Areas

PubMed Central

Wang, Ophelia; Zachmann, Luke J.; Sesnie, Steven E.; Olsson, Aaryn D.; Dickson, Brett G.

2014-01-01

Prioritizing areas for management of non-native invasive plants is critical, as invasive plants can negatively impact plant community structure. Extensive and multi-jurisdictional inventories are essential to prioritize actions aimed at mitigating the impact of invasions and changes in disturbance regimes. However, previous work devoted little effort to devising sampling methods sufficient to assess the scope of multi-jurisdictional invasion over extensive areas. Here we describe a large-scale sampling design that used species occurrence data, habitat suitability models, and iterative and targeted sampling efforts to sample five species and satisfy two key management objectives: 1) detecting non-native invasive plants across previously unsampled gradients, and 2) characterizing the distribution of non-native invasive plants at landscape to regional scales. Habitat suitability models of five species were based on occurrence records and predictor variables derived from topography, precipitation, and remotely sensed data. We stratified and established field sampling locations according to predicted habitat suitability and phenological, substrate, and logistical constraints. Across previously unvisited areas, we detected at least one of our focal species on 77% of plots. In turn, we used detections from 2011 to improve habitat suitability models and sampling efforts in 2012, as well as additional spatial constraints to increase detections. These modifications resulted in a 96% detection rate at plots. The range of habitat suitability values that identified highly and less suitable habitats and their environmental conditions corresponded to field detections with mixed levels of agreement. Our study demonstrated that an iterative and targeted sampling framework can address sampling bias, reduce time costs, and increase detections. Other studies can extend the sampling framework to develop methods in other ecosystems to provide detection data. The sampling methods

How Many Wolves (Canis lupus) Fit into Germany? The Role of Assumptions in Predictive Rule-Based Habitat Models for Habitat Generalists

PubMed Central

Fechter, Dominik; Storch, Ilse

2014-01-01

Due to legislative protection, many species, including large carnivores, are currently recolonizing Europe. To address the impending human-wildlife conflicts in advance, predictive habitat models can be used to determine potentially suitable habitat and areas likely to be recolonized. As field data are often limited, quantitative rule based models or the extrapolation of results from other studies are often the techniques of choice. Using the wolf (Canis lupus) in Germany as a model for habitat generalists, we developed a habitat model based on the location and extent of twelve existing wolf home ranges in Eastern Germany, current knowledge on wolf biology, different habitat modeling techniques and various input data to analyze ten different input parameter sets and address the following questions: (1) How do a priori assumptions and different input data or habitat modeling techniques affect the abundance and distribution of potentially suitable wolf habitat and the number of wolf packs in Germany? (2) In a synthesis across input parameter sets, what areas are predicted to be most suitable? (3) Are existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany consistent with current knowledge on wolf biology and habitat relationships? Our results indicate that depending on which assumptions on habitat relationships are applied in the model and which modeling techniques are chosen, the amount of potentially suitable habitat estimated varies greatly. Depending on a priori assumptions, Germany could accommodate between 154 and 1769 wolf packs. The locations of the existing wolf pack home ranges in Eastern Germany indicate that wolves are able to adapt to areas densely populated by humans, but are limited to areas with low road densities. Our analysis suggests that predictive habitat maps in general, should be interpreted with caution and illustrates the risk for habitat modelers to concentrate on only one selection of habitat factors or modeling technique. PMID:25029506

Modeling effects of climate change on Yakima River salmonid habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.; Connolly, Patrick J.; Maule, Alec G.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the potential effects of two climate change scenarios on salmonid habitats in the Yakima River by linking the outputs from a watershed model, a river operations model, a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model, and a geographic information system (GIS). The watershed model produced a discharge time series (hydrograph) in two study reaches under three climate scenarios: a baseline (1981–2005), a 1-°C increase in mean air temperature (plus one scenario), and a 2-°C increase (plus two scenario). A river operations model modified the discharge time series with Yakima River operational rules, a 2D model provided spatially explicit depth and velocity grids for two floodplain reaches, while an expert panel provided habitat criteria for four life stages of coho and fall Chinook salmon. We generated discharge-habitat functions for each salmonid life stage (e.g., spawning, rearing) in main stem and side channels, and habitat time series for baseline, plus one (P1) and plus two (P2) scenarios. The spatial and temporal patterns in salmonid habitats differed by reach, life stage, and climate scenario. Seventy-five percent of the 28 discharge-habitat responses exhibited a decrease in habitat quantity, with the P2 scenario producing the largest changes, followed by P1. Fry and spring/summer rearing habitats were the most sensitive to warming and flow modification for both species. Side channels generally produced more habitat than main stem and were more responsive to flow changes, demonstrating the importance of lateral connectivity in the floodplain. A discharge-habitat sensitivity analysis revealed that proactive management of regulated surface waters (i.e., increasing or decreasing flows) might lessen the impacts of climate change on salmonid habitats.

A test of 3 models of Kirtland's warbler habitat suitability

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Richard R. Buech

1996-01-01

We tested 3 models of Kirtland's warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) habitat suitability during a period when we believe there was a surplus of good quality breeding habitat. A jack pine canopy-cover model was superior to 2 jack pine stem-density models in predicting Kirtland's warbler habitat use and non-use. Estimated density of birds in high...

Predicting thermal regimes of stream networks across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Natural and anthropogenic influences

EPA Science Inventory

Thermal regimes are a critical factor in models predicting joint effects of watershed management activities and climate change on fish habitat suitability. We have compiled a database of lotic temperature time series across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (725 station-year combinat...

Modeling effects of conservation grassland losses on amphibian habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Neau, Jordan L.; Euliss, Ned H.

2014-01-01

Amphibians provide many ecosystem services valued by society. However, populations have declined globally with most declines linked to habitat change. Wetlands and surrounding terrestrial grasslands form habitat for amphibians in the North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Wetland drainage and grassland conversion have destroyed or degraded much amphibian habitat in the PPR. However, conservation grasslands can provide alternate habitat. In the United States, the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is the largest program maintaining grasslands on agricultural lands. We used an ecosystem services model (InVEST) parameterized for the PPR to quantify amphibian habitat over a six-year period (2007–2012). We then quantified changes in availability of amphibian habitat under various land-cover scenarios representing incremental losses (10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%) of CRP grasslands from 2012 levels. The area of optimal amphibian habitat in the four PPR ecoregions modeled (i.e., Northern Glaciated Plains, Northwestern Glaciated Plains, Lake Agassiz Plain, Des Moines Lobe) declined by approximately 22%, from 3.8 million ha in 2007 to 2.9 million ha in 2012. These losses were driven by the conversion of CRP grasslands to croplands, primarily for corn and soybean production. Our modeling identified an additional 0.8 million ha (26%) of optimal amphibian habitat that would be lost if remaining CRP lands are returned to crop production. An economic climate favoring commodity production over conservation has resulted in substantial losses of amphibian habitat across the PPR that will likely continue into the future. Other regions of the world face similar challenges to maintaining amphibian habitats.

Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

2013-04-01

The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

PubMed Central

Wenger, Seth J.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Luce, Charles H.; Neville, Helen M.; Fausch, Kurt D.; Dunham, Jason B.; Dauwalter, Daniel C.; Young, Michael K.; Elsner, Marketa M.; Rieman, Bruce E.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Williams, Jack E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species’ physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations. PMID:21844354

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenger, S.J.; Isaak, D.J.; Luce, C.H.; Neville, H.M.; Fausch, K.D.; Dunham, J.B.; Dauwalter, D.C.; Young, M.K.; Elsner, M.M.; Rieman, B.E.; Hamlet, A.F.; Williams, J.E.

2011-01-01

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km2), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Modeling critical habitat for Flammulated Owls (Otus flammeolus)

Treesearch

David A. Christie; Astrid M. van Woudenberg

1997-01-01

Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to produce a prediction model for Flammulated Owl (Otus flammeolus) breeding habitat within the Kamloops Forest Region in south-central British Columbia. Using the model equation, a pilot habitat prediction map was created within a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment that had a 75.7 percent...

Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.

2012-01-01

Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.

Evaluation of habitat suitability models for forest passerines using demographic data

Treesearch

Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Frank R., III Thompson; William D. Dijak; Joshua J. Millspaugh; Richard L. Clawson

2010-01-01

Habitat suitability is often used as a surrogate for demographic responses (i.e., abundance, survival, fecundity, or population viability) in the application of habitat suitability index (HSI) models. Whether habitat suitability actually relates to demographics, however, has rarely been evaluated. We validated HSI models of breeding habitat suitability for wood thrush...

Food-web models predict species abundances in response to habitat change.

PubMed

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-10-01

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss.

Food-Web Models Predict Species Abundances in Response to Habitat Change

PubMed Central

Gotelli, Nicholas J; Ellison, Aaron M

2006-01-01

Plant and animal population sizes inevitably change following habitat loss, but the mechanisms underlying these changes are poorly understood. We experimentally altered habitat volume and eliminated top trophic levels of the food web of invertebrates that inhabit rain-filled leaves of the carnivorous pitcher plant Sarracenia purpurea. Path models that incorporated food-web structure better predicted population sizes of food-web constituents than did simple keystone species models, models that included only autecological responses to habitat volume, or models including both food-web structure and habitat volume. These results provide the first experimental confirmation that trophic structure can determine species abundances in the face of habitat loss. PMID:17002518

Approaches to defining reference regimes for river restoration planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beechie, T. J.

2014-12-01

Reference conditions or reference regimes can be defined using three general approaches, historical analysis, contemporary reference sites, and theoretical or empirical models. For large features (e.g., floodplain channels and ponds) historical data and maps are generally reliable. For smaller features (e.g., pools and riffles in small tributaries), field data from contemporary reference sites are a reasonable surrogate for historical data. Models are generally used for features that have no historical information or present day reference sites (e.g., beaver pond habitat). Each of these approaches contributes to a watershed-wide understanding of current biophysical conditions relative to potential conditions, which helps create not only a guiding vision for restoration, but also helps quantify and locate the largest or most important restoration opportunities. Common uses of geomorphic and biological reference conditions include identifying key areas for habitat protection or restoration, and informing the choice of restoration targets. Examples of use of each of these three approaches to define reference regimes in western USA illustrate how historical information and current research highlight key restoration opportunities, focus restoration effort in areas that can produce the largest ecological benefit, and contribute to estimating restoration potential and assessing likelihood of achieving restoration goals.

A Rapid Approach to Modeling Species-Habitat Relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carter, Geoffrey M.; Breinger, David R.; Stolen, Eric D.

2005-01-01

A growing number of species require conservation or management efforts. Success of these activities requires knowledge of the species' occurrence pattern. Species-habitat models developed from GIS data sources are commonly used to predict species occurrence but commonly used data sources are often developed for purposes other than predicting species occurrence and are of inappropriate scale and the techniques used to extract predictor variables are often time consuming and cannot be repeated easily and thus cannot efficiently reflect changing conditions. We used digital orthophotographs and a grid cell classification scheme to develop an efficient technique to extract predictor variables. We combined our classification scheme with a priori hypothesis development using expert knowledge and a previously published habitat suitability index and used an objective model selection procedure to choose candidate models. We were able to classify a large area (57,000 ha) in a fraction of the time that would be required to map vegetation and were able to test models at varying scales using a windowing process. Interpretation of the selected models confirmed existing knowledge of factors important to Florida scrub-jay habitat occupancy. The potential uses and advantages of using a grid cell classification scheme in conjunction with expert knowledge or an habitat suitability index (HSI) and an objective model selection procedure are discussed.

Seasonal variation in coastal marine habitat use by the European shag: Insights from fine scale habitat selection modeling and diet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelot, Candice; Pinaud, David; Fortin, Matthieu; Maes, Philippe; Callard, Benjamin; Leicher, Marine; Barbraud, Christophe

2017-07-01

Studies of habitat selection by higher trophic level species are necessary for using top predator species as indicators of ecosystem functioning. However, contrary to terrestrial ecosystems, few habitat selection studies have been conducted at a fine scale for coastal marine top predator species, and fewer have coupled diet data with habitat selection modeling to highlight a link between prey selection and habitat use. The aim of this study was to characterize spatially and oceanographically, at a fine scale, the habitats used by the European Shag Phalacrocorax aristotelis in the Special Protection Area (SPA) of Houat-Hœdic in the Mor Braz Bay during its foraging activity. Habitat selection models were built using in situ observation data of foraging shags (transect sampling) and spatially explicit environmental data to characterize marine benthic habitats. Observations were first adjusted for detectability biases and shag abundance was subsequently spatialized. The influence of habitat variables on shag abundance was tested using Generalized Linear Models (GLMs). Diet data were finally confronted to habitat selection models. Results showed that European shags breeding in the Mor Braz Bay changed foraging habitats according to the season and to the different environmental and energetic constraints. The proportion of the main preys also varied seasonally. Rocky and coarse sand habitats were clearly preferred compared to fine or muddy sand habitats. Shags appeared to be more selective in their foraging habitats during the breeding period and the rearing of chicks, using essentially rocky areas close to the colony and consuming preferentially fish from the Labridae family and three other fish families in lower proportions. During the post-breeding period shags used a broader range of habitats and mainly consumed Gadidae. Thus, European shags seem to adjust their feeding strategy to minimize energetic costs, to avoid intra-specific competition and to maximize access

Assessing ecoregional-scale habitat suitability index models for priority landbirds

Treesearch

John M. Tirpak; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Frank R. Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; Charles K. Baxter; Jane A. Fitzgerald; William B. Uihlein

2009-01-01

Emerging methods in habitat and wildlife population modeling promise new horizons in conservation but only if these methods provide robust population-habitat linkages. We used Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data to verify and validate newly developed habitat suitability index (HSI) models for 40 priority landbird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain...

Wildlife species richness in shelterbelts: test of a habitat model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Richard L.; Cable, Ted T.; Haire, Sandra L.

1992-01-01

Shelterbelts are human-made habitats consisting of rows of shrubs and trees planted either in fields or on the windward side of farmstead dwellings. Shelterbelts provide wooded habitat for a large variety of birds and other wildlife. A model to predict wildlife species richness in shelterbelts (Schroeder 1986) was published as part of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model series (Schamberger et al. 1982). HSI models have been used extensively by wildlife managers and land use planners to assess habitat quality. Several HSI models have become the focus of a test program that includes analysis of field data for corroboration, refutation, or modification of model hypotheses. Previous tests of HSI models focused either on single species (e.g., Cook and Irwin 1985, Morton et al. 1989, Schroeder 1990) or examined portions of HSI models, such as the relationship between cavity abundance and tree diameter (Allen and Corn 1990). The shelterbelt model, however, assesses habitat value at the community level. The effects of habitat characteristics, area, and perimeter on diversity and abundance of bird and mammal species in shelterbelts were first studied by Yahner (1983a, b). Johnson and Beck (1988) confirmed the importance of shelterbelts to wildlife and identified area, perimeter, and diversity and complexity of vegetation as key measurements of habitat quality. The shelterbelt model incorporates both specific habitat variables and larger scale parameters, such as area and configuration, to predict wildlife species richness. This shift in perspective comes at a time of increasing interest in conservation and planning beyond the species levels (e.g., Graul and Miller 1984, Hutto et al. 1987, Schroeder 1987: 26).We report results of a 3-year study of spatial and vegetative parameters and their relationship to breeding bird species richness (BSR) in 34 Kansas shelterbelts. Our objectives were to test the hypothesis presented in the original

A GIS modeling method applied to predicting forest songbird habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettmers, Randy; Bart, Jonathan

1999-01-01

We have developed an approach for using a??presencea?? data to construct habitat models. Presence data are those that indicate locations where the target organism is observed to occur, but that cannot be used to define locations where the organism does not occur. Surveys of highly mobile vertebrates often yield these kinds of data. Models developed through our approach yield predictions of the amount and the spatial distribution of good-quality habitat for the target species. This approach was developed primarily for use in a GIS context; thus, the models are spatially explicit and have the potential to be applied over large areas. Our method consists of two primary steps. In the first step, we identify an optimal range of values for each habitat variable to be used as a predictor in the model. To find these ranges, we employ the concept of maximizing the difference between cumulative distribution functions of (1) the values of a habitat variable at the observed presence locations of the target organism, and (2) the values of that habitat variable for all locations across a study area. In the second step, multivariate models of good habitat are constructed by combining these ranges of values, using the Boolean operators a??anda?? and a??or.a?? We use an approach similar to forward stepwise regression to select the best overall model. We demonstrate the use of this method by developing species-specific habitat models for nine forest-breeding songbirds (e.g., Cerulean Warbler, Scarlet Tanager, Wood Thrush) studied in southern Ohio. These models are based on speciesa?? microhabitat preferences for moisture and vegetation characteristics that can be predicted primarily through the use of abiotic variables. We use slope, land surface morphology, land surface curvature, water flow accumulation downhill, and an integrated moisture index, in conjunction with a land-cover classification that identifies forest/nonforest, to develop these models. The performance of these

Interfacing models of wildlife habitat and human development to predict the future distribution of puma habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burdett, Christopher L.; Crooks, Kevin R.; Theobald, David M.; Wilson, Kenneth R.; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa A.; Fisher, Robert N.; Vickers, T. Winston; Morrison, Scott A.; Boyce, Walter M.

2010-01-01

The impact of human land uses on ecological systems typically differ relative to how extensively natural conditions are modified. Exurban development is intermediate-intensity residential development that often occurs in natural landscapes. Most species-habitat models do not evaluate the effects of such intermediate levels of human development and even fewer predict how future development patterns might affect the amount and configuration of habitat. We addressed these deficiencies by interfacing a habitat model with a spatially-explicit housing-density model to study the effect of human land uses on the habitat of pumas (Puma concolor) in southern California. We studied the response of pumas to natural and anthropogenic features within their home ranges and how mortality risk varied across a gradient of human development. We also used our housing-density model to estimate past and future housing densities and model the distribution of puma habitat in 1970, 2000, and 2030. The natural landscape for pumas in our study area consisted of riparian areas, oak woodlands, and open, conifer forests embedded in a chaparral matrix. Pumas rarely incorporated suburban or urban development into their home ranges, which is consistent with the hypothesis that the behavioral decisions of individuals can be collectively manifested as population-limiting factors at broader spatial scales. Pumas incorporated rural and exurban development into their home ranges, apparently perceiving these areas as modified, rather than non-habitat. Overall, pumas used exurban areas less than expected and showed a neutral response to rural areas. However, individual pumas that selected for or showed a neutral response to exurban areas had a higher risk of mortality than pumas that selected against exurban habitat. Exurban areas are likely hotspots for puma-human conflict in southern California. Approximately 10% of our study area will transform from exurban, rural, or undeveloped areas to suburban or

Modeling the Effect of Geomorphic Change Triggered by Large Wood Addition on Salmon Habitat in a Forested Coastal Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bair, R.; Segura, C.; Lorion, C.

2015-12-01

Large wood (LW) additions are often part of fish habitat restorations in the PNW where historic forest clear-cutting limited natural wood recruitment. These efforts' relative successes are rarely reported in terms of ecological significance to different life stages of fish. Understanding the effectiveness of LW additions will contribute to successfully managing forest land. In this study we quantify the geomorphic change of a restoration project involving LW additions to three alluvial reaches in Mill Creek, OR. The reaches are 110-130m in plane-bed morphology and drain 2-16km2. We quantify the change in available habitat to different life stages of coho salmon in terms of velocity (v), shear stress (t), flow depth, and grain size distributions (GSD) considering existing thresholds in the literature for acceptable habitat. Flow conditions before and after LW additions are assessed using a 2D hydrodynamic model (FaSTMECH). Model inputs include detailed channel topography, discharge, and surface GSD. The spatial-temporal variability of sediment transport was also quantified based the modeled t distributions and the GSD to document changes in the overall geomorphic regime. Initial modeling results for pre wood conditions show mean t and v values ranging between 0 and 26N/m2 and between 0 and 2.4m/s, respectively for up to bankfull flow (Qbf). The distributions of both t and v become progressively wider and peak at higher values as flow increases with the notable exception at Qbf for which the area of low velocity increases noticeably. The spatial distributions of velocity results indicates that the extent of suitable habitat for adult coho decreased by 18% between flows 30 and 55% of BF. However the area of suitable habitat increased by 15% between 0.55Qbf and Qbf as the flow spreads from the channel into the floodplain. We expect the LW will enhance floodplain connectivity and thus available habitat by creating additional areas of low v during winter flows.

Lidar: shedding new light on habitat characterization and modeling.

Treesearch

Kerri T. Vierling; Lee A. Vierling; William A. Gould; Sebastian Martinuzzi; Rick M. Clawges

2008-01-01

Ecologists need data on animal–habitat associations in terrestrial and aquatic environments to design and implement effective conservation strategies. Habitat characteristics used in models typically incorporate (1) field data of limited spatial extent and/or (2) remote sensing data that do not characterize the vertical habitat structure. Remote sensing tools that...

Climate change and tree-line ecosystems in the Sierra Nevada: Habitat suitability modelling to inform high-elevation forest dynamics monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Peggy E.; Alvarez, Otto; McKinney, Shawn T.; Li, Wenkai; Brooks, Matthew L.; Guo, Qinghua

2017-01-01

Whitebark pine and foxtail pine serve foundational roles in the subalpine zone of the Sierra Nevada. They provide the dominant structure in tree-line forests and regulate key ecosystem processes and community dynamics. Climate change models suggest that there will be changes in temperature regimes and in the timing and magnitude of precipitation within the current distribution of these species, and these changes may alter the species’ distributional limits. Other stressors include the non-native pathogen white pine blister rust and mountain pine beetle, which have played a role in the decline of whitebark pine throughout much of its range. The National Park Service is monitoring status and trends of these species. This report provides complementary information in the form of habitat suitability models to predict climate change impacts on the future distribution of these species within Sierra Nevada national parks.We used maximum entropy modeling to build habitat suitability models by relating species occurrence to environmental variables. Species occurrence was available from 328 locations for whitebark pine and 244 for foxtail pine across the species’ distributions within the parks. We constructed current climate surfaces for modeling by interpolating data from weather stations. Climate surfaces included mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and total precipitation for January, April, July, and October. We downscaled five general circulation models for the 2050s and the 2090s from ~125 km2 to 1 km2 under both an optimistic and an extreme climate scenario to bracket potential climatic change and its influence on projected suitable habitat. To describe anticipated changes in the distribution of suitable habitat, we compared, for each species, climate scenario, and time period, the current models with future models in terms of proportional change in habitat size, elevation distribution, model center points, and where habitat is predicted to expand or contract

Evaluating the Effect of Green Infrastructure Stormwater Best Management Practices on New England Stream Habitat

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA is evaluating the effectiveness of green infrastructure (GI) stormwater best management practices (BMPs) on stream habitat at the small watershed (< HUC12) scale in New England. Predictive models for thermal regime and substrate characteristics (substrate size, % em...

HABITAT DISTRIBUTION MODELS FOR 37 VERTEBRATE SPECIES ADDRESSED BY THE MULTI-SPECIES HABITAT CONSERVATION PLAN OF CLARK COUNTY, NEVADA

EPA Science Inventory

Thirty-seven species identified in the Clark County Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan were

previously modeled through the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project. Existing SWReGAP habitat

models and modeling databases were used to facilitate the revision of mo...

Impacts of changing rainfall regime on the demography of tropical birds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brawn, Jeffrey D.; Benson, Thomas J.; Stager, Maria; Sly, Nicholas D.; Tarwater, Corey E.

2017-02-01

Biodiversity in tropical regions is particularly high and may be highly sensitive to climate change. Unfortunately, a lack of long-term data hampers understanding of how tropical species, especially animals, may react to projected environmental changes. The amount and timing of rainfall is key to the function of tropical ecosystems and, although specific model predictions differ, there is general agreement that rainfall regimes will change over large areas of the tropics. Here, we estimate associations between dry season length (DSL) and the population biology of 20 bird species sampled in central Panama over a 33-year period. Longer dry seasons decreased the population growth rates and viability of nearly one-third of the species sampled. Simulations with modest increases in DSL suggest that consistently longer dry seasons will change the structure of tropical bird communities. Such change may occur even without direct loss of habitat--a finding with fundamental implications for conservation planning. Systematic changes in rainfall regime may threaten some populations and communities of tropical animals even in large tracts of protected habitat. These findings suggest the need for collaboration between climate scientists and conservation biologists to identify areas where rainfall regimes will be able to plausibly maintain wildlife populations.

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: Factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, D.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Duncan, B.W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Carter, G.M.; Hunt, D.K.; Drese, J.H.

2010-01-01

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess

A neutral model of low-severity fire regimes

Treesearch

Don McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl

2008-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire occurrence is a stochastic process, an understanding of baseline variability is necessary in order to identify constraints on surface fire regimes. With a suitable null, or neutral, model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated...

Proceedings of a workshop on fish habitat suitability index models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Terrell, James W.

1984-01-01

One of the habitat-based methodologies for impact assessment currently in use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1980). HEP is based on the assumption that the quality of an area as wildlife habitat at a specified target year can be described by a single number, called a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI). An HSI of 1.0 represents optimum habitat: an HSI of 0.0 represents unsuitable habitat. The verbal or mathematical rules by which an HSI is assigned to an area are called an HSI model. A series of Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models, described by Schamberger et al. (1982), have been published to assist users in applying HEP. HSI model building approaches are described in U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (1981). One type of HSI model described in detail requires the development of Suitability Index (SI) graphs for habitat variables believed to be important for the growth, survival, standing crop, or other measure of well-being for a species. Suitability indices range from 0 to 1.0, with 1.0 representing optimum conditions for the variable. When HSI models based on suitability indices are used, habitat variable values are measured, or estimated, and converted to SI's through the use of a Suitability Index graph for each variable. Individual SI's are aggregated into an HSI. Standard methods for testing this type of HSI model did not exist at the time the studies reported in this document were performed. A workshop was held in Fort Collins, Colorado, February 14-15, 1983, that brought together biologists experienced in the use, development, and testing of aquatic HSI models, in an effort to address the following objectives: (1) review the needs of HSI model users; (2) discuss and document the results of aquatic HSI model tests; and (3) provide recommendations for the future development, testing, modification, and use of HSI models. Individual presentations, group discussions, and group

The kinetic regime of the Vicsek model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chepizhko, A. A.; Kulinskii, V. L.

2009-12-01

We consider the dynamics of the system of self-propelling particles modeled via the Vicsek algorithm in continuum time limit. It is shown that the alignment process for the velocities can be subdivided into two regimes: "fast" kinetic and "slow" hydrodynamic ones. In fast kinetic regime the alignment of the particle velocity to the local neighborhood takes place with characteristic relaxation time. So, that the bigger regions arise with the velocity alignment. These regions align their velocities thus giving rise to hydrodynamic regime of the dynamics. We propose the mean-field-like approach in which we take into account the correlations between density and velocity. The comparison of the theoretical predictions with the numerical simulations is given. The relation between Vicsek model in the zero velocity limit and the Kuramoto model is stated. The mean-field approach accounting for the dynamic change of the neighborhood is proposed. The nature of the discontinuity of the dependence of the order parameter in case of vectorial noise revealed in Gregorie and Chaite, Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 025702 (2004) is discussed and the explanation of it is proposed.

Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134...

Dynamic habitat models: using telemetry data to project fisheries bycatch

PubMed Central

Žydelis, Ramūnas; Lewison, Rebecca L.; Shaffer, Scott A.; Moore, Jeffrey E.; Boustany, Andre M.; Roberts, Jason J.; Sims, Michelle; Dunn, Daniel C.; Best, Benjamin D.; Tremblay, Yann; Kappes, Michelle A.; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.; Crowder, Larry B.

2011-01-01

Fisheries bycatch is a recognized threat to marine megafauna. Addressing bycatch of pelagic species however is challenging owing to the dynamic nature of marine environments and vagility of these organisms. In order to assess the potential for species to overlap with fisheries, we propose applying dynamic habitat models to determine relative probabilities of species occurrence for specific oceanographic conditions. We demonstrate this approach by modelling habitats for Laysan (Phoebastria immutabilis) and black-footed albatrosses (Phoebastria nigripes) using telemetry data and relating their occurrence probabilities to observations of Hawaii-based longline fisheries in 1997–2000. We found that modelled habitat preference probabilities of black-footed albatrosses were high within some areas of the fishing range of the Hawaiian fleet and such preferences were important in explaining bycatch occurrence. Conversely, modelled habitats of Laysan albatrosses overlapped little with Hawaii-based longline fisheries and did little to explain the bycatch of this species. Estimated patterns of albatross habitat overlap with the Hawaiian fleet corresponded to bycatch observations: black-footed albatrosses were more frequently caught in this fishery despite being 10 times less abundant than Laysan albatrosses. This case study demonstrates that dynamic habitat models based on telemetry data may help to project interactions with pelagic animals relative to environmental features and that such an approach can serve as a tool to guide conservation and management decisions. PMID:21429921

Habitat classification modelling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

Treesearch

Phoebe L. Zarnetske; Thomas C. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical...

Models of Marine Fish Biodiversity: Assessing Predictors from Three Habitat Classification Schemes.

PubMed

Yates, Katherine L; Mellin, Camille; Caley, M Julian; Radford, Ben T; Meeuwig, Jessica J

2016-01-01

Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are

Models of Marine Fish Biodiversity: Assessing Predictors from Three Habitat Classification Schemes

PubMed Central

Yates, Katherine L.; Mellin, Camille; Caley, M. Julian; Radford, Ben T.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.

2016-01-01

Prioritising biodiversity conservation requires knowledge of where biodiversity occurs. Such knowledge, however, is often lacking. New technologies for collecting biological and physical data coupled with advances in modelling techniques could help address these gaps and facilitate improved management outcomes. Here we examined the utility of environmental data, obtained using different methods, for developing models of both uni- and multivariate biodiversity metrics. We tested which biodiversity metrics could be predicted best and evaluated the performance of predictor variables generated from three types of habitat data: acoustic multibeam sonar imagery, predicted habitat classification, and direct observer habitat classification. We used boosted regression trees (BRT) to model metrics of fish species richness, abundance and biomass, and multivariate regression trees (MRT) to model biomass and abundance of fish functional groups. We compared model performance using different sets of predictors and estimated the relative influence of individual predictors. Models of total species richness and total abundance performed best; those developed for endemic species performed worst. Abundance models performed substantially better than corresponding biomass models. In general, BRT and MRTs developed using predicted habitat classifications performed less well than those using multibeam data. The most influential individual predictor was the abiotic categorical variable from direct observer habitat classification and models that incorporated predictors from direct observer habitat classification consistently outperformed those that did not. Our results show that while remotely sensed data can offer considerable utility for predictive modelling, the addition of direct observer habitat classification data can substantially improve model performance. Thus it appears that there are aspects of marine habitats that are important for modelling metrics of fish biodiversity that are

Sex-specific habitat suitability models for Panthera tigris in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battle, Curtis Scott

Although research on wildlife species across taxa has shown that males and females differentially select habitat, sex-specific models of habitat suitability for endangered species are uncommon. Here, we developed such models for Bengal Tigers (Panthera tigris) based on camera trap data collected from 20 January to 22 March, 2010, within Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and its buffer zone. We compared these to a sex-indiscriminate habitat suitability model in order to identify information that is lost when occurrence data for both sexes are included in the same model, as well as to assess the benefits of a sex-specific approach to habitat suitability modelling. Our sex-specific models allowed us to produce more informative and detailed habitat suitability maps, highlighting key differences in the distribution of suitable habitats for males and females, preferences in vegetation structure, and habitat use near human settlements. In the context of global tiger conservation, such information is essential to fulfilling established conservation goals and population recovery targets.

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat preference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehle, C.; Mitchell, M.S.; White, M.

2000-01-01

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat preference were presented. Multiscale logistic regression models were used and based on these models a spatial optimization technique was utilized to generate optimal maps. The tradeoffs were analyzed by gradually increasing the weighting on a single species in the objective function over a series of simulations. Results indicated that efficiency of habitat management for species diversity could be maximized for small landscapes by incorporating spatial context.

Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

2013-01-01

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

Object-based class modelling for multi-scale riparian forest habitat mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strasser, Thomas; Lang, Stefan

2015-05-01

Object-based class modelling allows for mapping complex, hierarchical habitat systems. The riparian zone, including forests, represents such a complex ecosystem. Forests within riparian zones are biologically high productive and characterized by a rich biodiversity; thus considered of high community interest with an imperative to be protected and regularly monitored. Satellite earth observation (EO) provides tools for capturing the current state of forest habitats such as forest composition including intermixture of non-native tree species. Here we present a semi-automated object based image analysis (OBIA) approach for the mapping of riparian forests by applying class modelling of habitats based on the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitat classifications and the European Habitats Directive (HabDir) Annex 1. A very high resolution (VHR) WorldView-2 satellite image provided the required spatial and spectral details for a multi-scale image segmentation and rule-base composition to generate a six-level hierarchical representation of riparian forest habitats. Thereby habitats were hierarchically represented within an image object hierarchy as forest stands, stands of homogenous tree species and single trees represented by sunlit tree crowns. 522 EUNIS level 3 (EUNIS-3) habitat patches with a mean patch size (MPS) of 12,349.64 m2 were modelled from 938 forest stand patches (MPS = 6868.20 m2) and 43,742 tree stand patches (MPS = 140.79 m2). The delineation quality of the modelled EUNIS-3 habitats (focal level) was quantitatively assessed to an expert-based visual interpretation showing a mean deviation of 11.71%.

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Northern Gulf of Mexico brown shrimp and white shrimp

USGS Publications Warehouse

Turner, Robert Eugene; Brody, Michael S.

1983-01-01

A review and synthesis of existing information were used to develop estuarine habitat models for brown shrimp (Penaeus aztecus) and white shrimp (Penaeus setiferus). The models are scaled to produce an index of habitat suitability between 0 (unsuitable habitat) to 1 (optimally suitable habitat) for estuarine areas of the northern Gulf of Mexico. Habitat suitability indexes are designed for use with the habitat evaluation procedures developed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

Effects of regulated river flows on habitat suitability for the robust redhorse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisk, J. M.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Heise, R. J.

2015-01-01

The Robust Redhorse Moxostoma robustum is a rare and imperiled fish, with wild populations occurring in three drainages from North Carolina to Georgia. Hydroelectric dams have altered the species’ habitat and restricted its range. An augmented minimum-flow regime that will affect Robust Redhorse habitat was recently prescribed for Blewett Falls Dam, a hydroelectric facility on the Pee Dee River, North Carolina. Our objective was to quantify suitable spawning and nonspawning habitat under current and proposed minimum-flow regimes. We implanted radio transmitters into 27 adult Robust Redhorses and relocated the fish from spring 2008 to summer 2009, and we described habitat at 15 spawning capture locations. Nonspawning habitat consisted of deep, slow-moving pools (mean depth D 2.3 m; mean velocity D 0.23 m/s), bedrock and sand substrates, and boulders or coarse woody debris as cover. Spawning habitat was characterized as shallower, faster-moving water (mean depth D 0.84 m; mean velocity D 0.61 m/s) with gravel and cobble as substrates and boulders as cover associated with shoals. Telemetry relocations revealed two behavioral subgroups: a resident subgroup (linear range [mean § SE] D 7.9 § 3.7 river kilometers [rkm]) that remained near spawning areas in the Piedmont region throughout the year; and a migratory subgroup (linear range D 64.3 § 8.4 rkm) that migrated extensively downstream into the Coastal Plain region. Spawning and nonspawning habitat suitability indices were developed based on field microhabitat measurements and were applied to model suitable available habitat (weighted usable area) for current and proposed augmented minimum flows. Suitable habitat (both spawning and nonspawning) increased for each proposed seasonal minimum flow relative to former minimum flows, with substantial increases for spawning sites. Our results contribute to an understanding of how regulated flows affect available habitats for imperiled species. Flow managers can use these

Wildlife habitat connectivity in the changing climate of New York's Hudson Valley.

PubMed

Howard, Timothy G; Schlesinger, Matthew D

2013-09-01

Maintaining and restoring connectivity are key adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation under climate change. We present a novel combination of species distribution and connectivity modeling using current and future climate regimes to prioritize connections among populations of 26 rare species in New York's Hudson Valley. We modeled patches for each species for each time period and modeled potential connections among habitat patches by finding the least-cost path for every patch-to-patch connection. Finally, we aggregated these patches and paths to the tax parcel, commonly the primary unit of conservation action. Under future climate regimes, suitable habitat was predicted to contract or appear upslope and farther north. On average, predicted patches were nine times smaller and paths were twice as long under future climate. Parcels within the Hudson Highlands, Shawangunk Ridge, Catskill Mountains, and Harlem Valley had high species overlap, with areas upslope and northward increasing in importance over time. We envision that land managers and conservation planners can use these results to help prioritize parcel-level conservation and management and thus support biodiversity adaptation to climate change. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

Modeling Whistler Wave Generation Regimes In Magnetospheric Cyclotron Maser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasmanik, D. L.; Demekhov, A. G.; Trakhtengerts, V. Y.; Parrot, M.

Numerical analysis of the model for cyclotron instability development in the Earth magnetosphere is made.This model, based on the self-consistent set of equations of quasi-linear plasma theory, describes different regimes of wave generation and related energetic particle precipitation. As the source of free energy the injection of energetic electrons with transverse anisotropic distribution function to the interaction region is considered. Two different mechanisms of energetic electron loss from the interaction region are discussed. The first one is precipitation of energetic particles via the loss cone. The other mechanism is drift of particles away from the interaction region across the mag- netic field line. In the case of interaction in plasmasphere or rather large areas of cold plasma density enhancement the loss cone precipitation are dominant. For interaction in a subauroral duct losses due to drift are most effective. A parametric study of the model for both mechanisms of particle losses is made. The main attention is paid to the analysis of generation regimes for different characteristics of energetic electron source, such as the shape of pitch-angle distributions and elec- tron density. We show that in addition to the well-known stationary generation and periodic regime with successive spikes of similar shape, more complex forms of wave spectrum exist. In particular, we found a periodic regime, in which a single period in- cludes two separate spikes with different spectral shapes. In another regime, periodic generation of spikes at higher frequencies together with quasi-stationary generation at lower frequencies occurs. Quasi-periodic regime with spike overlapping, i.e. when generation of a new spike begins before the previous one is over is also found. Results obtained are compared with experimental data on quasi-periodic regimes of whistler wave generation.

A Spatially Based Area–Time Inundation Index Model Developed to Assess Habitat Opportunity in Tidal–Fluvial Wetlands and Restoration Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Andre M.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Ward, Duane L.

The hydrodynamics of tidal wetland areas in the lower Columbia River floodplain and estuary directly affect habitat opportunity for endangered salmonid fishes. Physical and biological structures and functions in the system are directly affected by inundation patterns influenced by tidal cycles, hydropower operations, river discharge, upriver water withdrawals, climate, and physical barriers such as dikes, culverts, and tide gates. Ongoing ecosystem restoration efforts are intended to increase the opportunity for salmon to access beneficial habitats by hydrologically reconnecting main-stem river channels and diked areas within the historical floodplain. To address the need to evaluate habitat opportunity, a geographic information system-basedmore » Area-Time Inundation Index Model (ATIIM) was developed. The ATIIM integrates in situ or modeled hourly water-surface elevation (WSE) data and advanced terrain processing of high-resolution elevation data. The ATIIM uses a spatially based wetted-area algorithm to determine site average bankfull elevation, two- and three-dimensional inundation extent, and other site metrics. Hydrological process metrics such as inundation frequency, duration, maximum area, and maximum frequency area can inform evaluation of proposed restoration sites; e.g., determine trade-offs between WSE and habitat opportunity, contrast alternative restoration designs, predict impacts of altered flow regimes, and estimate nutrient and biomass fluxes. In an adaptive management framework, this model can be used to provide standardized site comparisons and effectiveness monitoring of changes in the developmental trajectories of restoration sites. Results are presented for 11 wetlands representative of tidal marshes, tidal forested wetlands, and restoration sites.« less

A multiscaled model of southwestern willow flycatcher breeding habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, J.R.; Paradzick, C.E.

2003-01-01

The southwestern willow flycatcher (SWFL; Empidonax traillii extimus) is an endangered songbird whose habitat has declined dramatically over the last century. Understanding habitat selection patterns and the ability to identify potential breeding areas for the SWFL is crucial to the management and conservation of this species. We developed a multiscaled model of SWTL breeding habitat with a Geographic Information System (GIS), survey data, GIS variables, and multiple logistic regressions. We obtained presence and absence survey data from a riverine ecosystem and a reservoir delta in south-central Arizona, USA, in 1999. We extracted the GIS variables from satellite imagery and digital elevation models to characterize vegetation and floodplain within the project area. We used multiple logistic regressions within a cell-based (30 X 30 m) modeling environment to (1) determine associations between GIS variables and breeding-site occurrence at different spatial scales (0.09-72 ha), and (2) construct a predictive model. Our best model explained 54% of the variability in breeding-site occurrence with the following variables: vegetation density at the site (0.09 ha), proportion of dense vegetation and variability in vegetation density within a 4.5-ha neighborhood, and amount of floodplain or flat terrain within a 41-ha neighborhood. The density of breeding sites was highest in areas that the model predicted to be most suitable within the project area and at an external test site 200 km away. Conservation efforts must focus on protecting not only occupied patches, but also surrounding riparian forests and floodplain to ensure long-term viability of SWTL. We will use the multiscaled model to map SWTL breeding habitat in Arizona, prioritize future survey effort, and examine changes in habitat abundance and quality over time.

INTERACTIVE HABITAT MODELS FOR MID-ATLANTIC HIGHLAND STREAM FISHES

EPA Science Inventory

In most wadeable streams of the Mid-Atlantic Highland region of the eastern United States, habitat alteration resulting from development in the watershed is the primary stressor for fish. Models that predict the presence of stream fish species based on habitat characteristics ca...

Comparing Habitat Suitability and Connectivity Modeling Methods for Conserving Pronghorn Migrations

PubMed Central

Poor, Erin E.; Loucks, Colby; Jakes, Andrew; Urban, Dean L.

2012-01-01

Terrestrial long-distance migrations are declining globally: in North America, nearly 75% have been lost. Yet there has been limited research comparing habitat suitability and connectivity models to identify migration corridors across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Here we use pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) migrations in prairie habitat to compare two types of models that identify habitat suitability: maximum entropy (Maxent) and expert-based (Analytic Hierarchy Process). We used distance to wells, distance to water, NDVI, land cover, distance to roads, terrain shape and fence presence to parameterize the models. We then used the output of these models as cost surfaces to compare two common connectivity models, least-cost modeling (LCM) and circuit theory. Using pronghorn movement data from spring and fall migrations, we identified potential migration corridors by combining each habitat suitability model with each connectivity model. The best performing model combination was Maxent with LCM corridors across both seasons. Maxent out-performed expert-based habitat suitability models for both spring and fall migrations. However, expert-based corridors can perform relatively well and are a cost-effective alternative if species location data are unavailable. Corridors created using LCM out-performed circuit theory, as measured by the number of pronghorn GPS locations present within the corridors. We suggest the use of a tiered approach using different corridor widths for prioritizing conservation and mitigation actions, such as fence removal or conservation easements. PMID:23166656

Comparing habitat suitability and connectivity modeling methods for conserving pronghorn migrations.

PubMed

Poor, Erin E; Loucks, Colby; Jakes, Andrew; Urban, Dean L

2012-01-01

Terrestrial long-distance migrations are declining globally: in North America, nearly 75% have been lost. Yet there has been limited research comparing habitat suitability and connectivity models to identify migration corridors across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Here we use pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) migrations in prairie habitat to compare two types of models that identify habitat suitability: maximum entropy (Maxent) and expert-based (Analytic Hierarchy Process). We used distance to wells, distance to water, NDVI, land cover, distance to roads, terrain shape and fence presence to parameterize the models. We then used the output of these models as cost surfaces to compare two common connectivity models, least-cost modeling (LCM) and circuit theory. Using pronghorn movement data from spring and fall migrations, we identified potential migration corridors by combining each habitat suitability model with each connectivity model. The best performing model combination was Maxent with LCM corridors across both seasons. Maxent out-performed expert-based habitat suitability models for both spring and fall migrations. However, expert-based corridors can perform relatively well and are a cost-effective alternative if species location data are unavailable. Corridors created using LCM out-performed circuit theory, as measured by the number of pronghorn GPS locations present within the corridors. We suggest the use of a tiered approach using different corridor widths for prioritizing conservation and mitigation actions, such as fence removal or conservation easements.

Tests of a habitat suitability model for black-capped chickadees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, Richard L.

1990-01-01

The black-capped chickadee (Parus atricapillus) Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model provides a quantitative rating of the capability of a habitat to support breeding, based on measures related to food and nest site availability. The model assumption that tree canopy volume can be predicted from measures of tree height and canopy closure was tested using data from foliage volume studies conducted in the riparian cottonwood habitat along the South Platte River in Colorado. Least absolute deviations (LAD) regression showed that canopy cover and over story tree height yielded volume predictions significantly lower than volume estimated by more direct methods. Revisions to these model relations resulted in improved predictions of foliage volume. The relation between the HSI and estimates of black-capped chickadee population densities was examined using LAD regression for both the original model and the model with the foliage volume revisions. Residuals from these models were compared to residuals from both a zero slope model and an ideal model. The fit model for the original HSI differed significantly from the ideal model, whereas the fit model for the original HSI did not differ significantly from the ideal model. However, both the fit model for the original HSI and the fit model for the revised HSI did not differ significantly from a model with a zero slope. Although further testing of the revised model is needed, its use is recommended for more realistic estimates of tree canopy volume and habitat suitability.

Influence of long-term trends of flooding on habitat conditions in lowland riparian wetlands under low antropopression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirosław-Świątek, Dorota; Grygoruk, Mateusz

2016-04-01

Temporal, volumetric and areal trends of flooding remain dominant factors shaping habitat conditions of riparian wetlands. In contemporary Europe, where the pristine extent of riparian wetlands strongly decreased due to antropopression and the flow regime of majority of rivers was decently modified in agricultural and hydropower purposes, valuable riparian habitats that remained in good ecological state require appropriate maintenance of floods. Even though multiple environmental regulations were implemented worldwide in order to mitigate negative effects of antropopression to flow regime and habitats, it is the climatic change that challenges riparian ecosystem management to the extent comparable (if not higher) than the direct human interventions. Wishing to detect probable influence of the ongoing climatic change on the flood regime one should search for catchment systems of a low antropopression, where the long term variability of flood extents, flood depths and recurrence intervals are likely to reflect climatic changes rather than human activity. In our study we analysed 60-years long time series of the discharge data of Biebrza river (NE Poland) that was found in numerous studies a reference in a temperate-continental European riparian and mire ecosystem research. Daily data of river discharge was used as boundary conditions in the WETFLOD - a developed integrated river-floodplain-groundwater flow model applied to the environment of Lower Biebrza Basin. The model was used to simulate and analyze trends of changes in flood extent and water depths in selected, well preserved vegetation patches namely the Caricetum appropinquatae, Caricetum gracilis, Phragmitetum communis and Glycerietum maximae. Temporal trends were analysed on the basis of distribution deciles of flood extents, depths and recurrence intervals. Study revealed that flood extents and flood depths in the first decade of the 21st century were decently different from the ones modeled for the second

Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

PubMed Central

Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

2014-01-01

The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale. PMID:24954397

Development and validation of a habitat suitability model for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We developed a spatially-explicit, flexible 3-parameter habitat suitability model that can be used to identify and predict areas at higher risk for non-native dwarf eelgrass (Zostera japonica) invasion. The model uses simple environmental parameters (depth, nearshore slope, and salinity) to quantitatively describe habitat suitable for Z. japonica invasion based on ecology and physiology from the primary literature. Habitat suitability is defined with values ranging from zero to one, where one denotes areas most conducive to Z. japonica and zero denotes areas not likely to support Z. japonica growth. The model was applied to Yaquina Bay, Oregon, USA, an area that has well documented Z. japonica expansion over the last two decades. The highest suitability values for Z. japonica occurred in the mid to upper portions of the intertidal zone, with larger expanses occurring in the lower estuary. While the upper estuary did contain suitable habitat, most areas were not as large as in the lower estuary, due to inappropriate depth, a steeply sloping intertidal zone, and lower salinity. The lowest suitability values occurred below the lower intertidal zone, within the Yaquina River channel. The model was validated by comparison to a multi-year time series of Z. japonica maps, revealing a strong predictive capacity. Sensitivity analysis performed to evaluate the contribution of each parameter to the model prediction revealed that depth was the most important factor. Sh

Refinement of the Arc-Habcap model to predict habitat effectiveness for elk

Treesearch

Lakhdar Benkobi; Mark A. Rumble; Gary C. Brundige; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2004-01-01

Wildlife habitat modeling is increasingly important for managers who need to assess the effects of land management activities. We evaluated the performance of a spatially explicit deterministic habitat model (Arc-Habcap) that predicts habitat effectiveness for elk. We used five years of radio-telemetry locations of elk from Custer State Park (CSP), South Dakota, to...

Test and Modification of a Northern Bobwhite Habitat Suitability Index Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-04-01

density. Patton (1984) presented a habitat capability model for the Abert squirrel (Sciurus aberti) that produced scores in 5 quality classes from...34. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 3:171-173. Patton, D. R. 1984. A model to evaluate Abert squirrel habitat in uneven-aged ponderosa pine. Wildl. Soc. Bull. 12:408...poor to optimum. Squirrel densities over 4 years on 9 plots were correlated with subsequently classed habitats (r - 0.96). Soniat and Brody (1988

Adélie penguin foraging location predicted by tidal regime switching.

PubMed

Oliver, Matthew J; Irwin, Andrew; Moline, Mark A; Fraser, William; Patterson, Donna; Schofield, Oscar; Kohut, Josh

2013-01-01

Penguin foraging and breeding success depend on broad-scale environmental and local-scale hydrographic features of their habitat. We investigated the effect of local tidal currents on a population of Adélie penguins on Humble Is., Antarctica. We used satellite-tagged penguins, an autonomous underwater vehicle, and historical tidal records to model of penguin foraging locations over ten seasons. The bearing of tidal currents did not oscillate daily, but rather between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal regimes. Adélie penguins foraging locations changed in response to tidal regime switching, and not to daily tidal patterns. The hydrography and foraging patterns of Adélie penguins during these switching tidal regimes suggest that they are responding to changing prey availability, as they are concentrated and dispersed in nearby Palmer Deep by variable tidal forcing on weekly timescales, providing a link between local currents and the ecology of this predator.

Adélie Penguin Foraging Location Predicted by Tidal Regime Switching

PubMed Central

Oliver, Matthew J.; Irwin, Andrew; Moline, Mark A.; Fraser, William; Patterson, Donna; Schofield, Oscar; Kohut, Josh

2013-01-01

Penguin foraging and breeding success depend on broad-scale environmental and local-scale hydrographic features of their habitat. We investigated the effect of local tidal currents on a population of Adélie penguins on Humble Is., Antarctica. We used satellite-tagged penguins, an autonomous underwater vehicle, and historical tidal records to model of penguin foraging locations over ten seasons. The bearing of tidal currents did not oscillate daily, but rather between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal regimes. Adélie penguins foraging locations changed in response to tidal regime switching, and not to daily tidal patterns. The hydrography and foraging patterns of Adélie penguins during these switching tidal regimes suggest that they are responding to changing prey availability, as they are concentrated and dispersed in nearby Palmer Deep by variable tidal forcing on weekly timescales, providing a link between local currents and the ecology of this predator. PMID:23383091

[Habitat suitability index model and minimum habitat area estimation of young Procypris rabaudi (Tchang): a simulation experiment in laboratory].

PubMed

Feng, Xian-Bin; Zhu, Yong-Jiu; Li, Xi; He, Yong-Feng; Zhao, Jian-Hua; Yang, De-Guo

2013-01-01

Under the conditions of simulated micro-habitat in laboratory, and by using experimental ecological methods, this paper evaluated the suitability index (HSI) of young Procypris rabaudi for habitat factors (substrate, light intensity and water depth). The habitat suitability models of the young P. rabaudi were established, and the minimum habitat area of the young P. rabaudi was estimated. The young P. rabaudi preferred the habitats with the gravel diameter from 10 to 15 cm, light intensity from 0.2 to 1.8 lx, and water depth from 0 to 15 cm (distance from the bottom of the tank). The three suitability index models of the substrate, light intensity and water depth for the young P. rabaudi were SI(s) = 1.7338e(-0.997x)(SI(S) is the suitability index of substrate, and x is the gravel diameter; R2 = 0.89, P < 0.01), SI(L) = 3.0121e(-1.339x)(SI(L) is the suitability index of light intensity, and x is the light intensity; R2 = 0.93, P < 0.01), and SI(W) = 2.4055e(-1.245x)(SI(W) is the suitability index of water depth, and x is the water depth; R2 = 0.97, P < 0.01), respectively. Arithmetic mean model HSI = (SI(S)+SI(L)+SI(W))/3 was most available for the estimation of the habitat suitability of young P. rabaudi. A total of seven groups of young P. rabaudi which established and maintained a relatively stable habitat area range were found. This habitat area ranged from 628 to 2015 cm2, with an average of 1114 cm2.

Dynamic Modeling Strategy for Flow Regime Transition in Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xia Wang; Xiaodong Sun; Benjamin Doup

In modeling gas-liquid two-phase flows, the concept of flow regimes has been widely used to characterize the global interfacial structure of the flows. Nearly all constitutive relations that provide closures to the interfacial transfers in two-phase flow models, such as the two-fluid model, are flow regime dependent. Current nuclear reactor safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5, classify flow regimes using flow regime maps or transition criteria that were developed for steady-state, fully-developed flows. As twophase flows are dynamic in nature, it is important to model the flow regime transitions dynamically to more accurately predict the two-phase flows. The present workmore » aims to develop a dynamic modeling strategy to determine flow regimes in gas-liquid two-phase flows through introduction of interfacial area transport equations (IATEs) within the framework of a two-fluid model. The IATE is a transport equation that models the interfacial area concentration by considering the creation of the interfacial area, fluid particle (bubble or liquid droplet) disintegration, boiling and evaporation, and the destruction of the interfacial area, fluid particle coalescence and condensation. For flow regimes beyond bubbly flows, a two-group IATE has been proposed, in which bubbles are divided into two groups based on their size and shapes, namely group-1 and group-2 bubbles. A preliminary approach to dynamically identify the flow regimes is discussed, in which discriminator s are based on the predicted information, such as the void fraction and interfacial area concentration. The flow regime predicted with this method shows good agreement with the experimental observations.« less

Accuracy of gap analysis habitat models in predicting physical features for wildlife-habitat associations in the southwest U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boykin, K.G.; Thompson, B.C.; Propeck-Gray, S.

2010-01-01

Despite widespread and long-standing efforts to model wildlife-habitat associations using remotely sensed and other spatially explicit data, there are relatively few evaluations of the performance of variables included in predictive models relative to actual features on the landscape. As part of the National Gap Analysis Program, we specifically examined physical site features at randomly selected sample locations in the Southwestern U.S. to assess degree of concordance with predicted features used in modeling vertebrate habitat distribution. Our analysis considered hypotheses about relative accuracy with respect to 30 vertebrate species selected to represent the spectrum of habitat generalist to specialist and categorization of site by relative degree of conservation emphasis accorded to the site. Overall comparison of 19 variables observed at 382 sample sites indicated ???60% concordance for 12 variables. Directly measured or observed variables (slope, soil composition, rock outcrop) generally displayed high concordance, while variables that required judgments regarding descriptive categories (aspect, ecological system, landform) were less concordant. There were no differences detected in concordance among taxa groups, degree of specialization or generalization of selected taxa, or land conservation categorization of sample sites with respect to all sites. We found no support for the hypothesis that accuracy of habitat models is inversely related to degree of taxa specialization when model features for a habitat specialist could be more difficult to represent spatially. Likewise, we did not find support for the hypothesis that physical features will be predicted with higher accuracy on lands with greater dedication to biodiversity conservation than on other lands because of relative differences regarding available information. Accuracy generally was similar (>60%) to that observed for land cover mapping at the ecological system level. These patterns demonstrate

Predictive modeling of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Thorne, Lesley H; Johnston, David W; Urban, Dean L; Tyne, Julian; Bejder, Lars; Baird, Robin W; Yin, Suzanne; Rickards, Susan H; Deakos, Mark H; Mobley, Joseph R; Pack, Adam A; Chapla Hill, Marie

2012-01-01

Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood.

Predictive Modeling of Spinner Dolphin (Stenella longirostris) Resting Habitat in the Main Hawaiian Islands

PubMed Central

Thorne, Lesley H.; Johnston, David W.; Urban, Dean L.; Tyne, Julian; Bejder, Lars; Baird, Robin W.; Yin, Suzanne; Rickards, Susan H.; Deakos, Mark H.; Mobley, Joseph R.; Pack, Adam A.; Chapla Hill, Marie

2012-01-01

Predictive habitat models can provide critical information that is necessary in many conservation applications. Using Maximum Entropy modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of spinner dolphin (Stenella longirostris) resting habitat in the main Hawaiian Islands. Spinner dolphins in Hawai'i exhibit predictable daily movements, using inshore bays as resting habitat during daylight hours and foraging in offshore waters at night. There are growing concerns regarding the effects of human activities on spinner dolphins resting in coastal areas. However, the environmental factors that define suitable resting habitat remain unclear and must be assessed and quantified in order to properly address interactions between humans and spinner dolphins. We used a series of dolphin sightings from recent surveys in the main Hawaiian Islands and a suite of environmental variables hypothesized as being important to resting habitat to model spinner dolphin resting habitat. The model performed well in predicting resting habitat and indicated that proximity to deep water foraging areas, depth, the proportion of bays with shallow depths, and rugosity were important predictors of spinner dolphin habitat. Predicted locations of suitable spinner dolphin resting habitat provided in this study indicate areas where future survey efforts should be focused and highlight potential areas of conflict with human activities. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model used to inform the management of a species for which patterns of habitat availability are poorly understood. PMID:22937022

General slip regime permeability model for gas flow through porous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Bo; Jiang, Peixue; Xu, Ruina; Ouyang, Xiaolong

2016-07-01

A theoretical effective gas permeability model was developed for rarefied gas flow in porous media, which holds over the entire slip regime with the permeability derived as a function of the Knudsen number. This general slip regime model (GSR model) is derived from the pore-scale Navier-Stokes equations subject to the first-order wall slip boundary condition using the volume-averaging method. The local closure problem for the volume-averaged equations is studied analytically and numerically using a periodic sphere array geometry. The GSR model includes a rational fraction function of the Knudsen number which leads to a limit effective permeability as the Knudsen number increases. The mechanism for this behavior is the viscous fluid inner friction caused by converging-diverging flow channels in porous media. A linearization of the GSR model leads to the Klinkenberg equation for slightly rarefied gas flows. Finite element simulations show that the Klinkenberg model overestimates the effective permeability by as much as 33% when a flow approaches the transition regime. The GSR model reduces to the unified permeability model [F. Civan, "Effective correlation of apparent gas permeability in tight porous media," Transp. Porous Media 82, 375 (2010)] for the flow in the slip regime and clarifies the physical significance of the empirical parameter b in the unified model.

Introduction to stream network habitat analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartholow, John M.; Waddle, Terry J.

1986-01-01

Increasing demands on stream resources by a variety of users have resulted in an increased emphasis on studies that evaluate the cumulative effects of basinwide water management programs. Network habitat analysis refers to the evaluation of an entire river basin (or network) by predicting its habitat response to alternative management regimes. The analysis principally focuses on the biological and hydrological components of the riv er basin, which include both micro- and macrohabitat. (The terms micro- and macrohabitat are further defined and discussed later in this document.) Both conceptual and analytic models are frequently used for simplifying and integrating the various components of the basin. The model predictions can be used in developing management recommendations to preserve, restore, or enhance instream fish habitat. A network habitat analysis should begin with a clear and concise statement of the study objectives and a thorough understanding of the institutional setting in which the study results will be applied. This includes the legal, social, and political considerations inherent in any water management setting. The institutional environment may dictate the focus and level of detail required of the study to a far greater extent than the technical considerations. After the study objectives, including species on interest, and institutional setting are collectively defined, the technical aspects should be scoped to determine the spatial and temporal requirements of the analysis. A macro level approach should be taken first to identify critical biological elements and requirements. Next, habitat availability is quantified much as in a "standard" river segment analysis, with the likely incorporation of some macrohabitat components, such as stream temperature. Individual river segments may be aggregated to represent the networkwide habitat response of alternative water management schemes. Things learned about problems caused or opportunities generated may

A mathematical model of salmonid spawning habitat

Treesearch

Robert N. Havis; Carlos V. Alonzo; Keith E Woeste; Russell F. Thurow

1993-01-01

A simulation model [Salmonid Spawning Analysis Model (SSAM)I was developed as a management tool to evaluate the relative impacts of stream sediment load and water temperature on salmonid egg survival. The model is usefi.il for estimating acceptable sediment loads to spawning habitat that may result from upland development, such as logging and agriculture. Software in...

Assesment of future river habitat suitability under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy (Serio River, Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groppelli, B.; Confortola, G.; Soncini, A.; Bocchiola, D.; Rosso, R.

2011-12-01

We merge hydraulic river modelling, use of suitability functions for fish guild colonization and hydrological modelling of catchment response to investigate future (until 2100) hydrological cycle and fish habitat suitability for an Alpine catchment in Italy, Serio river (drainage area 450 Km2, average altitude 1300 m a.s.l., main channel length ca. 36 km). Based upon detailed river channel morphology data for 73 river sections and direct local investigation we then set up and tune a quasi 2-D (i.e. with floodplains) hydraulic model for in channel flows hydraulics, depending upon daily in stream discharge. We then evaluate distributed values of hydraulic variables and therein composite habitat suitability indexes CS for a representative target species (brown trout, Salmo Trutta Fario L.), resulting into usable wetted area WUA for fish colonization. We consider both juvenile JUV and adults AD, and we evaluate the frequency (days in a year/season) of yearly/seasonal, spatially distributed and bulk (whole stream) habitat quality. We then provide synthetic indicators of (yearly/seasonal) suitability level and duration within the river. We then set up a minimal (T, P), properly tuned hydrological model able to mimick Serio river's hydrological cycle. We then use downscaled future precipitation and temperature from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base chosen for the purpose based upon previous studies, to feed our hydrological model and provide projected hydrological regime of the catchment, together with modified habitat suitability. We then comment upon modified flow regime, habitat suitability as obtained and related uncertainty. The proposed results may be of use for river managers and may provide a template for investigation about future river habitat quality pending climate change.

Habitat connectivity and ecosystem productivity: implications from a simple model.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, J.E.

2007-01-01

The import of resources (food, nutrients) sustains biological production and food webs in resource-limited habitats. Resource export from donor habitats subsidizes production in recipient habitats, but the ecosystem-scale consequences of resource translocation are generally unknown. Here, I use a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model to show how dispersive connectivity between a shallow autotrophic habitat and a deep heterotrophic pelagic habitat can amplify overall system production in metazoan food webs. This result derives from the finite capacity of suspension feeders to capture and assimilate food particles: excess primary production in closed autotrophic habitats cannot be assimilated by consumers; however, if excess phytoplankton production is exported to food-limited heterotrophic habitats, it can be assimilated by zooplankton to support additional secondary production. Transport of regenerated nutrients from heterotrophic to autotrophic habitats sustains higher system primary production. These simulation results imply that the ecosystem-scale efficiency of nutrient transformation into metazoan biomass can be constrained by the rate of resource exchange across habitats and that it is optimized when the transport rate matches the growth rate of primary producers. Slower transport (i.e., reduced connectivity) leads to nutrient limitation of primary production in autotrophic habitats and food limitation of secondary production in heterotrophic habitats. Habitat fragmentation can therefore impose energetic constraints on the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems. The outcomes of ecosystem restoration through habitat creation will be determined by both functions provided by newly created aquatic habitats and the rates of hydraulic connectivity between them.

Climate-Driven Effects of Fire on Winter Habitat for Caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

PubMed Central

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas. PMID

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

PubMed

Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Two-dimensional hydrologic modeling to evaluate aquatic habitat conditions

Treesearch

Pamela Edwards; Frederica Wood; Michael Little; Peter Vila; Peter Vila

2006-01-01

We describe the modeling and mapping procedures used to examine aquatic habitat conditions and habitat suitability of a small river in north- central West Virginia where fish survival and reproduction in specific reaches are poor. The study includes: (1) surveying cross sections of streambed reaches and measuring discharges and corresponding water-surface elevations,...

Predictive Seagrass Habitat Model

EPA Science Inventory

Restoration of ecosystem services provided by seagrass habitats in estuaries requires a firm understanding of the modes of action of multiple interacting stressors including nutrients, climate change, coastal land-use change, and habitat modification. We explored the application...

O-regime dynamics and modeling in Tore Supra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, F.; Giruzzi, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Udintsev, V. S.; Artaud, J. F.; Barana, O.; Dumont, R.; Mazon, D.; Ségui, J.-L.

2009-06-01

The regime of nonlinear temperature oscillations (O-regime), characteristic of noninductive discharges on Tore Supra [Équipe Tore Supra, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research, Nice, France, 1988 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1989), Vol. 1, p. 9], is investigated in its triggering and suppressing mechanism. This regime can be described by two nonlinearly coupled equations for the current density j(r ) and the electron temperature Te(r) where the equation coefficients are functions of j and Te themselves. Both the integrated modeling code CRONOS [V. Basiuk et al., Nucl. Fusion 43, 822 (2003)] and a two-patch predator-prey system with diffusion and noise have been used and results have been compared to the experimental observations of the O-regime. A database of discharges is analyzed which features monotonic, flat, and reversed safety factor (q) profiles in order to characterize the action of external actuators on the regime dynamics with the widest generality. Electron cyclotron current drive and neutral beam injections have been used in order to induce localized perturbations in the total current profile j(r ) as well as to change the plasma confinement conditions in the central region. Magnetic shear perturbations and modifications of the heat transport turn out to be the central parameters governing the dynamics of the O-regime.

Wildlife tradeoffs based on landscape models of habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehle, C.; Mitchell, M.S.

2000-01-01

It is becoming increasingly clear that the spatial structure of landscapes affects the habitat choices and abundance of wildlife. In contrast to wildlife management based on preservation of critical habitat features such as nest sites on a beach or mast trees, it has not been obvious how to incorporate spatial structure into management plans. We present techniques to accomplish this goal. We used multiscale logistic regression models developed previously for neotropical migrant bird species habitat use in South Carolina (USA) as a basis for these techniques. Based on these models we used a spatial optimization technique to generate optimal maps (probability of occurrence, P = 1.0) for each of seven species. To emulate management of a forest for maximum species diversity, we defined the objective function of the algorithm as the sum of probabilities over the seven species, resulting in a complex map that allowed all seven species to coexist. The map that allowed for coexistence is not obvious, must be computed algorithmically, and would be difficult to realize using rules of thumb for habitat management. To assess how management of a forest for a single species of interest might affect other species, we analyzed tradeoffs by gradually increasing the weighting on a single species in the objective function over a series of simulations. We found that as habitat was increasingly modified to favor that species, the probability of presence for two of the other species was driven to zero. This shows that whereas it is not possible to simultaneously maximize the likelihood of presence for multiple species with divergent habitat preferences, compromise solutions are possible at less than maximal likelihood in many cases. Our approach suggests that efficiency of habitat management for species diversity can by maximized for even small landscapes by incorporating spatial context. The methods we present are suitable for wildlife management, endangered species conservation, and

Habitat models to assist plant protection efforts in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Manen, F.T.; Young, J.A.; Thatcher, C.A.; Cass, W.B.; Ulrey, C.

2005-01-01

During 2002, the National Park Service initiated a demonstration project to develop science-based law enforcement strategies for the protection of at-risk natural resources, including American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), bloodroot (Sanguinaria canadensis L.), and black cohosh (Cimicifuga racemosa (L.) Nutt. [syn. Actaea racemosa L.]). Harvest pressure on these species is increasing because of the growing herbal remedy market. We developed habitat models for Shenandoah National Park and the northern portion of the Blue Ridge Parkway to determine the distribution of favorable habitats of these three plant species and to demonstrate the use of that information to support plant protection activities. We compiled locations for the three plant species to delineate favorable habitats with a geographic information system (GIS). We mapped potential habitat quality for each species by calculating a multivariate statistic, Mahalanobis distance, based on GIS layers that characterized the topography, land cover, and geology of the plant locations (10-m resolution). We tested model performance with an independent dataset of plant locations, which indicated a significant relationship between Mahalanobis distance values and species occurrence. We also generated null models by examining the distribution of the Mahalanobis distance values had plants been distributed randomly. For all species, the habitat models performed markedly better than their respective null models. We used our models to direct field searches to the most favorable habitats, resulting in a sizeable number of new plant locations (82 ginseng, 73 bloodroot, and 139 black cohosh locations). The odds of finding new plant locations based on the habitat models were 4.5 (black cohosh) to 12.3 (American ginseng) times greater than random searches; thus, the habitat models can be used to improve the efficiency of plant protection efforts, (e.g., marking of plants, law enforcement activities). The field searches also

Transferability of habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers associated with wildfire

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Vicki Saab; Jeff P. Hollenbeck; Jonathan G. Dudley

2016-01-01

Following wildfire, forest managers are challenged with meeting both socioeconomic demands (e.g., salvage logging) and mandates requiring habitat conservation for disturbance-associated wildlife (e.g., woodpeckers). Habitat suitability models for nesting woodpeckers can be informative, but tests of model transferability are needed to understand how broadly...

Habitat modeling and genetic signatures of postglacial recolonization for tidal estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolby, G. A.; Jacobs, D. K.

2014-12-01

Pleistocene glacial cycles are a foremost influence on the genetic diversity and species distribution patterns observed today. Though much work has centered on biotic response to such climatic forcing, little of it has regarded estuarine or other aquatic coastal taxa whose habitat formation is a function of sea level, hydrography, and coastal geomorphology. These physical parameters required for habitat formation suggest that glacial cycles impart a significant effect on such taxa through glacially driven eustatic changes. Additionally, the steepened coastline and rainfall-limited Mediterranean climate suggest limited glacial habitat for estuarine species in southern and Baja California. Here we present GIS modeled habitat for tidal estuaries for three co-distributed estuarine fishes (Gillichthys mirabilis, Quietula y-cauda, Fundulus parvipinnis) since the last glacial maximum. Parameterization of sea level and slope enables biologically relevant temporal resolution of near-millennial scale. At lowstand our approach reveals two refuges along the coast at 1000km distance from each other, with habitat rapidly increasing 15 - 12 ka during meltwater pulse 1A. Habitat area peaked in the early Holocene and began decreasing with the current stillstand roughly 7 ka, probably as a result of coastal maturation towards less tidal systems. To target the postglacial recolonization process we applied discriminant function analysis to highly polymorphic microsatellite data to partition out the alleles associated with refuges identified a priori by habitat modeling. The frequencies of these alleles were calculated for all individuals at intervening populations and regressed against geographic distance. This analysis revealed nonlinear mixing curves, suggesting uneven allelic mixing efficiency along the coastline, perhaps as a result of differential habitat origination times as indicated by the habitat models. These results highlight the dynamism of estuarine habitat in recent

Habitat model for the Florida Scrub Jay on John F. Kennedy Space Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.

1992-01-01

The Florida Scrub Jay is endemic to Florida. The John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) provides habitat for one of the three largest populations of the Florida Scrub Jay. This threatened bird occupies scrub, slash pine flatwoods, disturbed scrub, and coastal strand on KSC. Densities of Florida Scrub Jays were shown to vary with habitat characteristics but not necessarily with vegetation type. Relationships between Florida Scrub Jay densities and habitat characteristics were used to develop a habitat model to provide a tool to compare alternative sites for new facilities and to quantify environmental impacts. This model is being tested using long term demographic studies of colorbanded Florida Scrub Jays. Optimal habitat predicted by the model has greater than or equal to 50 percent of the shrub canopy comprised of scrub oaks, 20-50 percent open space or scrub oak vegetation within 100 m of a ruderal edge, less than or equal to 15 percent pine canopy cover, a shrub height of 120-170 cm, and is greater than or equal to 100 m from a forest. This document reviews life history, social behavior, food, foraging habitat, cover requirements, characteristics of habitat on KSC, and habitat preferences of the Florida Scrub Jay. Construction of the model and its limitations are discussed.

Engineered channel controls limiting spawning habitat rehabilitation success on regulated gravel-bed rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Rocko A.; Pasternack, Gregory B.

2008-05-01

In efforts to rehabilitate regulated rivers for ecological benefits, the flow regime has been one of the primary focal points of management strategies. However, channel engineering can impact channel geometry such that hydraulic and geomorphic responses to flow reregulation do not yield the sought for benefits. To illustrate and assess the impacts of structural channel controls and flow reregulation on channel processes and fish habitat quality in multiple life stages, a highly detailed digital elevation model was collected and analyzed for a river reach right below a dam using a suite of hydrologic, hydraulic, geomorphic, and ecological methods. Results showed that, despite flow reregulation to produce a scaled-down natural hydrograph, anthropogenic boundary controls have severely altered geomorphic processes associated with geomorphic self-sustainability and instream habitat availability in the case study. Given the similarity of this stream to many others, we concluded that the potential utility of natural flow regime reinstatement in regulated gravel-bed rivers is conditional on concomitant channel rehabilitation.

Linking dynamic habitat selection with wading bird foraging distributions across resource gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beerens, James M.; Noonberg, Erik G.; Gawlik, Dale E.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret (Ardea alba), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Stork (Mycteria Americana) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches.

Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

Seasonal soil moisture patterns in contrasting habitats in the Willamette Valley, Oregon

EPA Science Inventory

Changing seasonal soil moisture regimes caused by global warming may alter plant community composition in sensitive habitats such as wetlands and oak savannas. To evaluate such changes, an understanding of typical seasonal soil moisture regimes is necessary. The primary objective...

Management regime influences shrubland birds and habitat conditions in the Northern Appalachians, USA

Treesearch

Jennifer R. Smetzer; David I. King; Scott Schlossberg

2014-01-01

Population declines of birds that breed in early-successional shrubland habitat are of great concern to conservationists throughout the northeastern United States. To help increase the efficiency and effectiveness of efforts to conserve these species and their habitats, we studied birds in temporary forest openings created through even-aged timber harvest, and...

An Ecohydraulic Model to Identify and Monitor Moapa Dace Habitat

PubMed Central

Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.; Scoppettone, Gary G.; Dixon, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) is a critically endangered thermophilic minnow native to the Muddy River ecosystem in southeastern Nevada, USA. Restricted to temperatures between 26.0 and 32.0°C, these fish are constrained to the upper two km of the Muddy River and several small tributaries fed by warm springs. Habitat alterations, nonnative species invasion, and water withdrawals during the 20th century resulted in a drastic decline in the dace population and in 1979 the Moapa Valley National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was created to protect them. The goal of our study was to determine the potential effects of reduced surface flows that might result from groundwater pumping or water diversions on Moapa dace habitat inside the Refuge. We accomplished our goal in several steps. First, we conducted snorkel surveys to determine the locations of Moapa dace on three warm-spring tributaries of the Muddy River. Second, we conducted hydraulic simulations over a range of flows with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Third, we developed a set of Moapa dace habitat models with logistic regression and a geographic information system. Fourth, we estimated Moapa dace habitat over a range of flows (plus or minus 30% of base flow). Our spatially explicit habitat models achieved classification accuracies between 85% and 91%, depending on the snorkel survey and creek. Water depth was the most significant covariate in our models, followed by substrate, Froude number, velocity, and water temperature. Hydraulic simulations showed 2–11% gains in dace habitat when flows were increased by 30%, and 8–32% losses when flows were reduced by 30%. To ensure the health and survival of Moapa dace and the Muddy River ecosystem, groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and diversions need to be carefully monitored, while fully implementing a proactive conservation strategy. PMID:23408999

An ecohydraulic model to identify and monitor moapa dace habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.; Scoppettone, Gayton G.; Dixon, Christopher J.

2013-01-01

Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) is a critically endangered thermophilic minnow native to the Muddy River ecosystem in southeastern Nevada, USA. Restricted to temperatures between 26.0 and 32.0°C, these fish are constrained to the upper two km of the Muddy River and several small tributaries fed by warm springs. Habitat alterations, nonnative species invasion, and water withdrawals during the 20th century resulted in a drastic decline in the dace population and in 1979 the Moapa Valley National Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was created to protect them. The goal of our study was to determine the potential effects of reduced surface flows that might result from groundwater pumping or water diversions on Moapa dace habitat inside the Refuge. We accomplished our goal in several steps. First, we conducted snorkel surveys to determine the locations of Moapa dace on three warm-spring tributaries of the Muddy River. Second, we conducted hydraulic simulations over a range of flows with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Third, we developed a set of Moapa dace habitat models with logistic regression and a geographic information system. Fourth, we estimated Moapa dace habitat over a range of flows (plus or minus 30% of base flow). Our spatially explicit habitat models achieved classification accuracies between 85% and 91%, depending on the snorkel survey and creek. Water depth was the most significant covariate in our models, followed by substrate, Froude number, velocity, and water temperature. Hydraulic simulations showed 2-11% gains in dace habitat when flows were increased by 30%, and 8-32% losses when flows were reduced by 30%. To ensure the health and survival of Moapa dace and the Muddy River ecosystem, groundwater and surface-water withdrawals and diversions need to be carefully monitored, while fully implementing a proactive conservation strategy.

Multi-scale habitat selection modeling: A review and outlook

Treesearch

Kevin McGarigal; Ho Yi Wan; Kathy A. Zeller; Brad C. Timm; Samuel A. Cushman

2016-01-01

Scale is the lens that focuses ecological relationships. Organisms select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial and/or temporal scales within each level. Failure to properly address scale dependence can result in incorrect inferences in multi-scale habitat selection modeling studies.

Linking population viability, habitat suitability, and landscape simulation models for conservation planning

Treesearch

Michael A. Larson; Frank R., III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; William D. Dijak; Stephen R. Shifley

2004-01-01

Methods for habitat modeling based on landscape simulations and population viability modeling based on habitat quality are well developed, but no published study of which we are aware has effectively joined them in a single, comprehensive analysis. We demonstrate the application of a population viability model for ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus)...

DYNAMIC MODELING STRATEGY FOR FLOW REGIME TRANSITION IN GAS-LIQUID TWO-PHASE FLOWS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

X. Wang; X. Sun; H. Zhao

In modeling gas-liquid two-phase flows, the concept of flow regime has been used to characterize the global interfacial structure of the flows. Nearly all constitutive relations that provide closures to the interfacial transfers in two-phase flow models, such as the two-fluid model, are often flow regime dependent. Currently, the determination of the flow regimes is primarily based on flow regime maps or transition criteria, which are developed for steady-state, fully-developed flows and widely applied in nuclear reactor system safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5. As two-phase flows are observed to be dynamic in nature (fully-developed two-phase flows generally do notmore » exist in real applications), it is of importance to model the flow regime transition dynamically for more accurate predictions of two-phase flows. The present work aims to develop a dynamic modeling strategy for determining flow regimes in gas-liquid two-phase flows through the introduction of interfacial area transport equations (IATEs) within the framework of a two-fluid model. The IATE is a transport equation that models the interfacial area concentration by considering the creation and destruction of the interfacial area, such as the fluid particle (bubble or liquid droplet) disintegration, boiling and evaporation; and fluid particle coalescence and condensation, respectively. For the flow regimes beyond bubbly flows, a two-group IATE has been proposed, in which bubbles are divided into two groups based on their size and shape (which are correlated), namely small bubbles and large bubbles. A preliminary approach to dynamically identifying the flow regimes is provided, in which discriminators are based on the predicted information, such as the void fraction and interfacial area concentration of small bubble and large bubble groups. This method is expected to be applied to computer codes to improve their predictive capabilities of gas-liquid two-phase flows, in particular for the

Development and evaluation of habitat models for herpetofauna and small mammals

Treesearch

William M. Block; Michael L. Morrison; Peter E. Scott

1998-01-01

We evaluated the ability of discriminant analysis (DA), logistic regression (LR), and multiple regression (MR) to describe habitat use by amphibians, reptiles, and small mammals found in California oak woodlands. We also compared models derived from pitfall and live trapping data for several species. Habitat relations modeled by DA and LR produced similar results,...

Landscape management of fire and grazing regimes alters the fine-scale habitat utilisation by feral cats.

PubMed

McGregor, Hugh W; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E; Johnson, Christopher N

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores.

Landscape Management of Fire and Grazing Regimes Alters the Fine-Scale Habitat Utilisation by Feral Cats

PubMed Central

McGregor, Hugh W.; Legge, Sarah; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Christopher N.

2014-01-01

Intensification of fires and grazing by large herbivores has caused population declines in small vertebrates in many ecosystems worldwide. Impacts are rarely direct, and usually appear driven via indirect pathways, such as changes to predator-prey dynamics. Fire events and grazing may improve habitat and/or hunting success for the predators of small mammals, however, such impacts have not been documented. To test for such an interaction, we investigated fine-scale habitat selection by feral cats in relation to fire, grazing and small-mammal abundance. Our study was conducted in north-western Australia, where small mammal populations are sensitive to changes in fire and grazing management. We deployed GPS collars on 32 cats in landscapes with contrasting fire and grazing treatments. Fine-scale habitat selection was determined using discrete choice modelling of cat movements. We found that cats selected areas with open grass cover, including heavily-grazed areas. They strongly selected for areas recently burnt by intense fires, but only in habitats that typically support high abundance of small mammals. Intense fires and grazing by introduced herbivores created conditions that are favoured by cats, probably because their hunting success is improved. This mechanism could explain why, in northern Australia, impacts of feral cats on small mammals might have increased. Our results suggest the impact of feral cats could be reduced in most ecosystems by maximising grass cover, minimising the incidence of intense fires, and reducing grazing by large herbivores. PMID:25329902

Models that predict standing crop of stream fish from habitat variables: 1950-85.

Treesearch

K.D. Fausch; C.L. Hawkes; M.G. Parsons

1988-01-01

We reviewed mathematical models that predict standing crop of stream fish (number or biomass per unit area or length of stream) from measurable habitat variables and classified them by the types of independent habitat variables found significant, by mathematical structure, and by model quality. Habitat variables were of three types and were measured on different scales...

MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF WILDLIFE HABITAT AND POPULATIONS AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE

EPA Science Inventory

A forest dynamics model (FORCLIM) was linked to a spatial wildlife population model (PATCH) to assess the effects of habitat change in a landscape on selected wildlife species. The habitat changes included forest responses to harvesting, development, and climate change on a west...

Assessing the Wildlife Habitat Value of New England Salt Marshes: I. Model and Application

EPA Science Inventory

We developed an assessment model to quantify the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes based on marsh characteristics and the presence of habitat types that influence habitat use by terrestrial wildlife. Applying the model to12 salt marshes located in Narragansett B...

Assessment of Habitat and Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection, Usquepaug-Queen River, Rhode Island, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.

2003-01-01

species that would have been expected to occur in this area. Streamflow records from the gaging station Usquepaug River near Usquepaug were used to (1) determine streamflow requirements for habitat protection by use of the Tennant method, and (2) define a flow regime that mimics the river's natural flow regime by use of the Range of Variability Approach. The Tennant streamflow requirement, defined as 30 percent of the mean annual flow, was 0.64 cubic feet per second per square mile (ft3/s/mi2). This requirement should be considered an initial estimate because flows measured at the Usquepaug River gaging station are reduced by water withdrawals upstream from the gage. The streamflow requirements may need to be revised once a watershed-scale precipitationrunoff model of the Usquepaug River is complete and a simulation of streamflows without water withdrawals has been determined. Streamflow requirements for habitat protection were also determined at seven riffle sites by use of the Wetted-Perimeter and R2Cross methods. Two of these sites were on the mainstem Usquepaug River, one was on the mainstem Queen River, and four were on tributaries and the headwaters of the Queen River. Median streamflow requirements for habitat protection for these sites were 0.41 (ft3/s)/mi2, determined by the Wetted-Perimeter method and 0.72 ft3/s/mi2, determined by the R2Cross method.

Simulation of flow and sediment mobility using a multidimensional flow model for the White Sturgeon critical-habitat reach, Kootenai River near Bonners Ferry, Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barton, Gary J.; McDonald, Richard R.; Nelson, Jonathan M.; Dinehart, Randal L.

2005-01-01

In 1994, the Kootenai River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) was listed as an Endangered Species as a direct result of two related observations. First, biologists observed that the white sturgeon population in the Kootenai River was declining. Second, they observed a decline in recruitment of juvenile sturgeon beginning in the 1950s with an almost total absence of recruitment since 1974, following the closure of Libby Dam in 1972. This second observation was attributed to changes in spawning and (or) rearing habitat resulting from alterations in the physical habitat, including flow regime, sediment-transport regime, and bed morphology of the river. The Kootenai River White Sturgeon Recovery Team was established to find and implement ways to improve spawning and rearing habitat used by white sturgeon. They identified the need to develop and apply a multidimensional flow model to certain reaches of the river to quantify physical habitat in a spatially distributed manner. The U.S. Geological Survey has addressed these needs by developing, calibrating, and validating a multidimensional flow model used to simulate streamflow and sediment mobility in the white sturgeon critical-habitat reach of the Kootenai River. This report describes the model and limitations, presents the results of a few simple simulations, and demonstrates how the model can be used to link physical characteristics of streamflow to biological or other habitat data. This study was conducted in cooperation with the Kootenai Tribe of Idaho along a 23-kilometer reach of the Kootenai River, including the white sturgeon spawning reach near Bonners Ferry, Idaho that is about 108 to 131 kilometers below Libby Dam. U.S. Geological Survey's MultiDimensional Surface-Water Modeling System was used to construct a flow model for the critical-habitat reach of the Kootenai River white sturgeon, between river kilometers 228.4 and 245.9. Given streamflow, bed roughness, and downstream water-surface elevation

Multi-metric calibration of hydrological model to capture overall flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhang, Shifeng; Zhai, Xiaoyan; She, Dunxian

2016-08-01

Flow regimes (e.g., magnitude, frequency, variation, duration, timing and rating of change) play a critical role in water supply and flood control, environmental processes, as well as biodiversity and life history patterns in the aquatic ecosystem. The traditional flow magnitude-oriented calibration of hydrological model was usually inadequate to well capture all the characteristics of observed flow regimes. In this study, we simulated multiple flow regime metrics simultaneously by coupling a distributed hydrological model with an equally weighted multi-objective optimization algorithm. Two headwater watersheds in the arid Hexi Corridor were selected for the case study. Sixteen metrics were selected as optimization objectives, which could represent the major characteristics of flow regimes. Model performance was compared with that of the single objective calibration. Results showed that most metrics were better simulated by the multi-objective approach than those of the single objective calibration, especially the low and high flow magnitudes, frequency and variation, duration, maximum flow timing and rating. However, the model performance of middle flow magnitude was not significantly improved because this metric was usually well captured by single objective calibration. The timing of minimum flow was poorly predicted by both the multi-metric and single calibrations due to the uncertainties in model structure and input data. The sensitive parameter values of the hydrological model changed remarkably and the simulated hydrological processes by the multi-metric calibration became more reliable, because more flow characteristics were considered. The study is expected to provide more detailed flow information by hydrological simulation for the integrated water resources management, and to improve the simulation performances of overall flow regimes.

Can global hydrological models reproduce large scale river flood regimes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

2013-04-01

River flooding remains one of the most severe natural hazards. On the one hand, major flood events pose a serious threat to human well-being, causing deaths and considerable economic damage. On the other hand, the periodic occurrence of flood pulses is crucial to maintain the functioning of riverine floodplains and wetlands, and to preserve the ecosystem services the latter provide. In many regions, river floods reveal a distinct seasonality, i.e. they occur at a particular time during the year. This seasonality is related to regionally dominant flood generating processes which can be expressed in river flood types. While in data-rich regions (esp. Europe and North America) the analysis of flood regimes can be based on observed river discharge time series, this data is sparse or lacking in many other regions of the world. This gap of knowledge can be filled by global modeling approaches. However, to date most global modeling studies have focused on mean annual or monthly water availability and their change over time while simulating discharge extremes, both floods and droughts, still remains a challenge for large scale hydrological models. This study will explore the ability of the global hydrological model WaterGAP3 to simulate the large scale patterns of river flood regimes, represented by seasonal pattern and the dominant flood type. WaterGAP3 simulates the global terrestrial water balance on a 5 arc minute spatial grid (excluding Greenland and Antarctica) at a daily time step. The model accounts for human interference on river flow, i.e. water abstraction for various purposes, e.g. irrigation, and flow regulation by large dams and reservoirs. Our analysis will provide insight in the general ability of global hydrological models to reproduce river flood regimes and thus will promote the creation of a global map of river flood regimes to provide a spatially inclusive and comprehensive picture. Understanding present-day flood regimes can support both flood risk

Modeling the impact of hydromorphological alterations by dams and channelization on fish habitat.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parasiewicz, Piotr; Suska, Katarzyna

2017-04-01

As a consequence of introduction of Water Framework Directive it has been discovered that hydromorphological pressures are one of the main causes of impact on aquatic fauna. However, the impact may vary depending on river type and fish community. To test this hypothesis, we modelled alterations of fish habitat on 6 river sections across Poland using MesoHABSIM approach. The original models of habitat for Target Fish Community were based on repeated field surveys in reference river sections, classified into four fish-ecological classes. Introducing to the models three hydromorphological modification types (damming, channelization and dredging) changed persistent habitat availability for the fish community. The change was measured with Habitat Stress Days Alteration index. Overall the modifications caused increase of habitat stress days, but impact varied depending on season, hydromorphologic river type and expected fish community.

Multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a Geographic Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Joseph D.; Dunn, James E.; Smith, Kimberly G.

1993-01-01

Simple univariate statistical techniques may not adequately assess the multidimensional nature of habitats used by wildlife. Thus, we developed a multivariate method to model habitat-use potential using a set of female black bear (Ursus americanus) radio locations and habitat data consisting of forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to streams, and forest cover type diversity score in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. The model is based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. That statistic is a measure of dissimilarity and represents a standardized squared distance between a set of sample variates and an ideal based on the mean of variates associated with animal observations. Calculations were made with the GIS to produce a map containing Mahalanobis distance values within each cell on a 60- × 60-m grid. The model identified areas of high habitat use potential that could not otherwise be identified by independent perusal of any single map layer. This technique avoids many pitfalls that commonly affect typical multivariate analyses of habitat use and is a useful tool for habitat manipulation or mitigation to favor terrestrial vertebrates that use habitats on a landscape scale.

Modeling of drop breakup in the bag breakup regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Chang, S.; Wu, H.; Xu, J.

2014-04-01

Several analytic models for predicting the drop deformation and breakup have been developed over the last three decades, but modeling drop breakup in the bag-type regime is less reported. In this Letter, a breakup model has been proposed to predict the drop deformation length and breakup time in the bag-type breakup regime in a more accurate manner. In the present model, the drop deformation which is approximately as the displacement of the centre of mass (c. m.) along the axis located at the centre of the drop, and the movement of c. m. is obtained by solving the pressure balance equation. The effects of the drop deformation on the drop external aerodynamic force are considered in this model. Drop breakup occurs when the deformation length reaches the maximum value and the maximum deformation length is a function of Weber number. The performance and applicability of the proposed breakup model are tested against the published experimental data.

A Bayesian spawning habitat suitability model for American shad in southeastern United States rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hightower, Joseph E.; Harris, Julianne E.; Raabe, Joshua K.; Brownell, Prescott; Drew, C. Ashton

2012-01-01

Habitat suitability index models for American shad Alosa sapidissima were developed by Stier and Crance in 1985. These models, which were based on a combination of published information and expert opinion, are often used to make decisions about hydropower dam operations and fish passage. The purpose of this study was to develop updated habitat suitability index models for spawning American shad in the southeastern United States, building on the many field and laboratory studies completed since 1985. We surveyed biologists who had knowledge about American shad spawning grounds, assembled a panel of experts to discuss important habitat variables, and used raw data from published and unpublished studies to develop new habitat suitability curves. The updated curves are based on resource selection functions, which can model habitat selectivity based on use and availability of particular habitats. Using field data collected in eight rivers from Virginia to Florida (Mattaponi, Pamunkey, Roanoke, Tar, Neuse, Cape Fear, Pee Dee, St. Johns), we obtained new curves for temperature, current velocity, and depth that were generally similar to the original models. Our new suitability function for substrate was also similar to the original pattern, except that sand (optimal in the original model) has a very low estimated suitability. The Bayesian approach that we used to develop habitat suitability curves provides an objective framework for updating the model as new studies are completed and for testing the model's applicability in other parts of the species' range.

Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

2014-01-01

The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

VisTrails SAHM: visualization and workflow management for species habitat modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morisette, Jeffrey T.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Talbert, Colin B.; Ignizio, Drew A.; Talbert, Marian; Silva, Claudio; Koop, David; Swanson, Alan; Young, Nicholas E.

2013-01-01

The Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) has been created to both expedite habitat modeling and help maintain a record of the various input data, pre- and post-processing steps and modeling options incorporated in the construction of a species distribution model through the established workflow management and visualization VisTrails software. This paper provides an overview of the VisTrails:SAHM software including a link to the open source code, a table detailing the current SAHM modules, and a simple example modeling an invasive weed species in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.

Wildlife adaptations and management in eastside interior forests with mixed severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

John F. Lehmkuhl

2004-01-01

Little is known about the effects of mixed severity fire on wildlife, but a population viability analysis framework that considers habitat quantity and quality, species life history, and species population structure can be used to analyze management options. Landscape-scale habitat patterns under a mixed severity fire regime are a mosaic of compositional and structural...

Modelling riverine habitat for robust redhorse: assessment for reintroduction of an imperilled species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisk, J. M.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Heise, R. J.

2014-01-01

A critical component of a species reintroduction is assessment of contemporary habitat suitability. The robust redhorse, Moxostoma robustum (Cope), is an imperilled catostomid that occupies a restricted range in the south-eastern USA. A remnant population persists downstream of Blewett Falls Dam, the terminal dam in the Pee Dee River, North Carolina. Reintroduction upstream of Blewett Falls Dam may promote long-term survival of this population. Tillery Dam is the next hydroelectric facility upstream, which includes a 30 rkm lotic reach. Habitat suitability indices developed in the Pee Dee River were applied to model suitable habitat for proposed minimum flows downstream of Tillery Dam. Modelling results indicate that the Tillery reach provides suitable robust redhorse habitat, with spawning habitat more abundant than non-spawning habitat. Sensitivity analyses suggested that suitable water depth and substrate were limiting physical habitat variables. These results can inform decisions on flow regulation and guide planning for reintroduction of the robust redhorse and other species.

Linking Dynamic Habitat Selection with Wading Bird Foraging Distributions across Resource Gradients

PubMed Central

Beerens, James M.; Noonburg, Erik G.; Gawlik, Dale E.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species’ ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret (Ardea alba), White Ibis (Eudocimus albus), and Wood Stork (Mycteria Americana) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches. PMID:26107386

Predicting habitat suitability for rare plants at local spatial scales using a species distribution model.

PubMed

Gogol-Prokurat, Melanie

2011-01-01

If species distribution models (SDMs) can rank habitat suitability at a local scale, they may be a valuable conservation planning tool for rare, patchily distributed species. This study assessed the ability of Maxent, an SDM reported to be appropriate for modeling rare species, to rank habitat suitability at a local scale for four edaphic endemic rare plants of gabbroic soils in El Dorado County, California, and examined the effects of grain size, spatial extent, and fine-grain environmental predictors on local-scale model accuracy. Models were developed using species occurrence data mapped on public lands and were evaluated using an independent data set of presence and absence locations on surrounding lands, mimicking a typical conservation-planning scenario that prioritizes potential habitat on unsurveyed lands surrounding known occurrences. Maxent produced models that were successful at discriminating between suitable and unsuitable habitat at the local scale for all four species, and predicted habitat suitability values were proportional to likelihood of occurrence or population abundance for three of four species. Unfortunately, models with the best discrimination (i.e., AUC) were not always the most useful for ranking habitat suitability. The use of independent test data showed metrics that were valuable for evaluating which variables and model choices (e.g., grain, extent) to use in guiding habitat prioritization for conservation of these species. A goodness-of-fit test was used to determine whether habitat suitability values ranked habitat suitability on a continuous scale. If they did not, a minimum acceptable error predicted area criterion was used to determine the threshold for classifying habitat as suitable or unsuitable. I found a trade-off between model extent and the use of fine-grain environmental variables: goodness of fit was improved at larger extents, and fine-grain environmental variables improved local-scale accuracy, but fine-grain variables

Evaluating habitat suitability models for nesting white-headed woodpeckers in unburned forest

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Victoria A. Saab; Kim Mellen-Mclean; Jonathan G. Dudley

2015-01-01

Habitat suitability models can provide guidelines for species conservation by predicting where species of interest are likely to occur. Presence-only models are widely used but typically provide only relative indices of habitat suitability (HSIs), necessitating rigorous evaluation often using independently collected presence-absence data. We refined and evaluated...

Derivation of a GIS-based watershed-scale conceptual model for the St. Jones River Delaware from habitat-scale conceptual models.

PubMed

Reiter, Michael A; Saintil, Max; Yang, Ziming; Pokrajac, Dragoljub

2009-08-01

Conceptual modeling is a useful tool for identifying pathways between drivers, stressors, Valued Ecosystem Components (VECs), and services that are central to understanding how an ecosystem operates. The St. Jones River watershed, DE is a complex ecosystem, and because management decisions must include ecological, social, political, and economic considerations, a conceptual model is a good tool for accommodating the full range of inputs. In 2002, a Four-Component, Level 1 conceptual model was formed for the key habitats of the St. Jones River watershed, but since the habitat level of resolution is too fine for some important watershed-scale issues we developed a functional watershed-scale model using the existing narrowed habitat-scale models. The narrowed habitat-scale conceptual models and associated matrices developed by Reiter et al. (2006) were combined with data from the 2002 land use/land cover (LULC) GIS-based maps of Kent County in Delaware to assemble a diagrammatic and numerical watershed-scale conceptual model incorporating the calculated weight of each habitat within the watershed. The numerical component of the assembled watershed model was subsequently subjected to the same Monte Carlo narrowing methodology used for the habitat versions to refine the diagrammatic component of the watershed-scale model. The narrowed numerical representation of the model was used to generate forecasts for changes in the parameters "Agriculture" and "Forest", showing that land use changes in these habitats propagated through the results of the model by the weighting factor. Also, the narrowed watershed-scale conceptual model identified some key parameters upon which to focus research attention and management decisions at the watershed scale. The forecast and simulation results seemed to indicate that the watershed-scale conceptual model does lead to different conclusions than the habitat-scale conceptual models for some issues at the larger watershed scale.

Model development for the assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in conservation planning.

PubMed

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Chaplin-Kramer, Becky; Mandle, Lisa; Ziv, Guy; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-01-01

There is a growing pressure of human activities on natural habitats, which leads to biodiversity losses. To mitigate the impact of human activities, environmental policies are developed and implemented, but their effects are commonly not well understood because of the lack of tools to predict the effects of conservation policies on habitat quality and/or diversity. We present a straightforward model for the simultaneous assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in river basins as a function of land use and anthropogenic threats to habitat that could be applied under different management scenarios to help understand the trade-offs of conservation actions. We modify the InVEST model for the assessment of terrestrial habitat quality and extend it to freshwater habitats. We assess the reliability of the model in a severely impaired basin by comparing modeled results to observed terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity data. Estimated habitat quality is significantly correlated with observed terrestrial vascular plant richness (R(2)=0.76) and diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates (R(2)=0.34), as well as with ecosystem functions such as in-stream phosphorus retention (R(2)=0.45). After that, we analyze different scenarios to assess the suitability of the model to inform changes in habitat quality under different conservation strategies. We believe that the developed model can be useful to assess potential levels of biodiversity, and to support conservation planning given its capacity to forecast the effects of management actions in river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine-scale habitat modeling of a top marine predator: do prey data improve predictive capacity?

PubMed

Torres, Leigh G; Read, Andrew J; Halpin, Patrick

2008-10-01

Predators and prey assort themselves relative to each other, the availability of resources and refuges, and the temporal and spatial scale of their interaction. Predictive models of predator distributions often rely on these relationships by incorporating data on environmental variability and prey availability to determine predator habitat selection patterns. This approach to predictive modeling holds true in marine systems where observations of predators are logistically difficult, emphasizing the need for accurate models. In this paper, we ask whether including prey distribution data in fine-scale predictive models of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) habitat selection in Florida Bay, Florida, U.S.A., improves predictive capacity. Environmental characteristics are often used as predictor variables in habitat models of top marine predators with the assumption that they act as proxies of prey distribution. We examine the validity of this assumption by comparing the response of dolphin distribution and fish catch rates to the same environmental variables. Next, the predictive capacities of four models, with and without prey distribution data, are tested to determine whether dolphin habitat selection can be predicted without recourse to describing the distribution of their prey. The final analysis determines the accuracy of predictive maps of dolphin distribution produced by modeling areas of high fish catch based on significant environmental characteristics. We use spatial analysis and independent data sets to train and test the models. Our results indicate that, due to high habitat heterogeneity and the spatial variability of prey patches, fine-scale models of dolphin habitat selection in coastal habitats will be more successful if environmental variables are used as predictor variables of predator distributions rather than relying on prey data as explanatory variables. However, predictive modeling of prey distribution as the response variable based on

Predicting 21st-century polar bear habitat distribution from global climate models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Durner, George M.; Douglas, David C.; Nielson, R.M.; Amstrup, Steven C.; McDonald, T.L.; Stirling, I.; Mauritzen, Mette; Born, E.W.; Wiig, O.; Deweaver, E.; Serreze, Mark C.; Belikov, Stanislav; Holland, M.M.; Maslanik, J.; Aars, Jon; Bailey, D.A.; Derocher, A.E.

2009-01-01

Projections of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sea ice habitat distribution in the polar basin during the 21st century were developed to understand the consequences of anticipated sea ice reductions on polar bear populations. We used location data from satellitecollared polar bears and environmental data (e.g., bathymetry, distance to coastlines, and sea ice) collected from 1985 to 1995 to build resource selection functions (RSFs). RSFs described habitats that polar bears preferred in summer, autumn, winter, and spring. When applied to independent data from 1996 to 2006, the RSFs consistently identified habitats most frequently used by polar bears. We applied the RSFs to monthly maps of 21st-century sea ice concentration projected by 10 general circulation models (GCMs) used in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, under the A1B greenhouse gas forcing scenario. Despite variation in their projections, all GCMs indicated habitat losses in the polar basin during the 21st century. Losses in the highest-valued RSF habitat (optimal habitat) were greatest in the southern seas of the polar basin, especially the Chukchi and Barents seas, and least along the Arctic Ocean shores of Banks Island to northern Greenland. Mean loss of optimal polar bear habitat was greatest during summer; from an observed 1.0 million km2 in 1985-1995 (baseline) to a projected multi-model mean of 0.32 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-68% change). Projected winter losses of polar bear habitat were less: from 1.7 million km2 in 1985-1995 to 1.4 million km2 in 2090-2099 (-17% change). Habitat losses based on GCM multi-model means may be conservative; simulated rates of habitat loss during 1985-2006 from many GCMs were less than the actual observed rates of loss. Although a reduction in the total amount of optimal habitat will likely reduce polar bear populations, exact relationships between habitat losses and population demographics remain unknown. Density and energetic

Sediment regime constraints on river restoration - An example from the lower Missouri river

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, R.B.; Blevins, D.W.; Bitner, C.J.

2009-01-01

Dammed rivers are subject to changes in their flow, water-quality, and sediment regimes. Each of these changes may contribute to diminished aquatic habitat quality and quantity. Of the three factors, an altered sediment regime is a particularly unyielding challenge on many dammed rivers. The magnitude of the challenge is illustrated on the Lower Missouri River, where the largest water storage system in North America has decreased the downriver suspended-sediment load to 0.2%–17% of pre-dam loads. In response to the altered sediment regime, the Lower Missouri River channel has incised as much as 3.5 m just downstream of Gavins Point Dam, although the bed has been stable to slightly aggrading at other locations farther downstream. Effects of channel engineering and commercial dredging are superimposed on the broad-scale adjustments to the altered sediment regime.The altered sediment regime and geomorphic adjustments constrain restoration and management opportunities. Incision and aggradation limit some objectives of flow-regime management: In incising river segments, ecologically desirable reconnection of the floodplain requires discharges that are beyond operational limits, whereas in aggrading river segments, small spring pulses may inundate or saturate low-lying farmlands. Lack of sediment in the incising river segment downstream of Gavins Point Dam also limits sustainable restoration of sand-bar habitat for bird species listed under the Endangered Species Act. Creation of new shallow-water habitat for native fishes involves taking sediment out of floodplain storage and reintroducing most or all of it to the river, raising concerns about increased sediment, nutrient, and contaminant loads. Calculations indicate that effects of individual restoration projects are small relative to background loads, but cumulative effects may depend on sequence and locations of projects. An understanding of current and historical sediment fluxes, and how they vary along the river

Translating statistical species-habitat models to interactive decision support tools

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wszola, Lyndsie S.; Simonsen, Victoria L.; Stuber, Erica F.; Gillespie, Caitlyn R.; Messinger, Lindsey N.; Decker, Karie L.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Understanding species-habitat relationships is vital to successful conservation, but the tools used to communicate species-habitat relationships are often poorly suited to the information needs of conservation practitioners. Here we present a novel method for translating a statistical species-habitat model, a regression analysis relating ring-necked pheasant abundance to landcover, into an interactive online tool. The Pheasant Habitat Simulator combines the analytical power of the R programming environment with the user-friendly Shiny web interface to create an online platform in which wildlife professionals can explore the effects of variation in local landcover on relative pheasant habitat suitability within spatial scales relevant to individual wildlife managers. Our tool allows users to virtually manipulate the landcover composition of a simulated space to explore how changes in landcover may affect pheasant relative habitat suitability, and guides users through the economic tradeoffs of landscape changes. We offer suggestions for development of similar interactive applications and demonstrate their potential as innovative science delivery tools for diverse professional and public audiences.

Translating statistical species-habitat models to interactive decision support tools.

PubMed

Wszola, Lyndsie S; Simonsen, Victoria L; Stuber, Erica F; Gillespie, Caitlyn R; Messinger, Lindsey N; Decker, Karie L; Lusk, Jeffrey J; Jorgensen, Christopher F; Bishop, Andrew A; Fontaine, Joseph J

2017-01-01

Understanding species-habitat relationships is vital to successful conservation, but the tools used to communicate species-habitat relationships are often poorly suited to the information needs of conservation practitioners. Here we present a novel method for translating a statistical species-habitat model, a regression analysis relating ring-necked pheasant abundance to landcover, into an interactive online tool. The Pheasant Habitat Simulator combines the analytical power of the R programming environment with the user-friendly Shiny web interface to create an online platform in which wildlife professionals can explore the effects of variation in local landcover on relative pheasant habitat suitability within spatial scales relevant to individual wildlife managers. Our tool allows users to virtually manipulate the landcover composition of a simulated space to explore how changes in landcover may affect pheasant relative habitat suitability, and guides users through the economic tradeoffs of landscape changes. We offer suggestions for development of similar interactive applications and demonstrate their potential as innovative science delivery tools for diverse professional and public audiences.

Translating statistical species-habitat models to interactive decision support tools

PubMed Central

Simonsen, Victoria L.; Stuber, Erica F.; Gillespie, Caitlyn R.; Messinger, Lindsey N.; Decker, Karie L.; Lusk, Jeffrey J.; Jorgensen, Christopher F.; Bishop, Andrew A.; Fontaine, Joseph J.

2017-01-01

Understanding species-habitat relationships is vital to successful conservation, but the tools used to communicate species-habitat relationships are often poorly suited to the information needs of conservation practitioners. Here we present a novel method for translating a statistical species-habitat model, a regression analysis relating ring-necked pheasant abundance to landcover, into an interactive online tool. The Pheasant Habitat Simulator combines the analytical power of the R programming environment with the user-friendly Shiny web interface to create an online platform in which wildlife professionals can explore the effects of variation in local landcover on relative pheasant habitat suitability within spatial scales relevant to individual wildlife managers. Our tool allows users to virtually manipulate the landcover composition of a simulated space to explore how changes in landcover may affect pheasant relative habitat suitability, and guides users through the economic tradeoffs of landscape changes. We offer suggestions for development of similar interactive applications and demonstrate their potential as innovative science delivery tools for diverse professional and public audiences. PMID:29236707

Mapping the surface characteristics of the Mojave with remote sensing for terrestrial habitat modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowicki, S. A.; Skuse, R. J.

2012-12-01

High-resolution ecological and climate modeling requires quantification of surface characteristics such as rock abundance, soil induration and surface roughness at fine-scale, since these features can affect the micro and macro habitat of a given area and ultimately determine the assemblage of plant and animal species that may occur there. Our objective is to develop quantitative data layers of thermophysical properties of the entire Mojave Desert Ecoregion for applications to habitat modeling being conducted by the USGS Western Ecological Research Center. These research efforts are focused on developing habitat models and a better physical understanding of the Mojave Desert, which have implications the development of solar and wind energy resources, military installation expansion and residential development planned for the Mojave. Thus there is a need to improve our understanding of the mechanical composition and thermal characteristics of natural and modified surfaces in the southwestern US at as high-resolution as possible. Since the Mojave is a sparsely-vegetated, arid landscape with little precipitation, remote sensing-based thermophysical analyses using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflectance Radiometer (ASTER) day and nighttime imagery are ideal for determining the physical properties of the surface. New mosaicking techniques for thermal imagery acquired at different dates, seasons and temperatures have allowed for the highest-resolution mosaics yet generated at 100m/pixel for thermal infrared wavelengths. Among our contributions is the development of seamless day and night ASTER mosaics of land surface temperatures that are calibrated to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) coincident observations to produce both a seamless mosaic and quantitative temperatures across the region that varies spectrally and thermophysically over a large number of orbit tracks. Products derived from this dataset include surface rock abundance

Modeling mountain pine beetle habitat suitability within Sequoia National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Andrew

Understanding significant changes in climate and their effects on timber resources can help forest managers make better decisions regarding the preservation of natural resources and land management. These changes may to alter natural ecosystems dependent on historical and current climate conditions. Increasing mountain pine beetle (MBP) outbreaks within the southern Sierra Nevada are the result of these alterations. This study better understands MPB behavior within Sequoia National Park (SNP) and model its current and future habitat distribution. Variables contributing to MPB spread are vegetation stress, soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, disturbance, and presence of Ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa) and Lodgepole (Pinus contorta) pine trees. These variables were obtained using various modeled, insitu, and remotely sensed sources. The generalized additive model (GAM) was used to calculate the statistical significance of each variable contributing to MPB spread and also created maps identifying habitat suitability. Results indicate vegetation stress and forest disturbance to be variables most indicative of MPB spread. Additionally, the model was able to detect habitat suitability of MPB with a 45% accuracy concluding that a geospatial driven modeling approach can be used to delineate potential MPB spread within SNP.

Shifting balance of thermokarst lake ice regimes across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Lu, Zong; Whitman, Matthew S.

2012-01-01

The balance of thermokarst lakes with bedfast- and floating-ice regimes across Arctic lowlands regulates heat storage, permafrost thaw, winter-water supply, and over-wintering aquatic habitat. Using a time-series of late-winter synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to distinguish lake ice regimes in two regions of the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska from 2003–2011, we found that 18% of the lakes had intermittent ice regimes, varying between bedfast-ice and floating-ice conditions. Comparing this dataset with a radar-based lake classification from 1980 showed that 16% of the bedfast-ice lakes had shifted to floating-ice regimes. A simulated lake ice thinning trend of 1.5 cm/yr since 1978 is believed to be the primary factor driving this form of lake change. The most profound impacts of this regime shift in Arctic lakes may be an increase in the landscape-scale thermal offset created by additional lake heat storage and its role in talik development in otherwise continuous permafrost as well as increases in over-winter aquatic habitat and winter-water supply.

Sage-grouse habitat restoration symposium proceedings

Treesearch

Nancy L. Shaw; Mike Pellant; Stephen B. Monsen

2005-01-01

Declines in habitat of greater sage-grouse and Gunnison sage-grouse across the western United States are related to degradation, loss, and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems resulting from development of agricultural lands, grazing practices, changes in wildfire regimes, increased spread of invasive species, gas and oil development, and other human impacts. These...

Thermal regimes of Mexican spotted owl nest stands

Treesearch

Joseph L. Ganey

2004-01-01

To evaluate the hypothesis that spotted owls (Strix occidentalis) select habitats with cool microclimates to avoid high daytime temperatures, I sampled thermal regimes in nest areas used by Mexican spotted owls (S. o. lucida) in northern Arizona. I sampled air temperature at 30-min intervals in 30 pairs of nest and random sites...

Sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in GIS data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoms, David M.; Davis, Frank W.; Cogan, Christopher B.

1992-01-01

Decision makers need to know the reliability of output products from GIS analysis. For many GIS applications, it is not possible to compare these products to an independent measure of 'truth'. Sensitivity analysis offers an alternative means of estimating reliability. In this paper, we present a CIS-based statistical procedure for estimating the sensitivity of wildlife habitat models to uncertainties in input data and model assumptions. The approach is demonstrated in an analysis of habitat associations derived from a GIS database for the endangered California condor. Alternative data sets were generated to compare results over a reasonable range of assumptions about several sources of uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis indicated that condor habitat associations are relatively robust, and the results have increased our confidence in our initial findings. Uncertainties and methods described in the paper have general relevance for many GIS applications.

Chapter 5: Application of state-and-transition models to evaluate wildlife habitat

Treesearch

Anita T. Morzillo; Pamela Comeleo; Blair Csuti; Stephanie Lee

2014-01-01

Wildlife habitat analysis often is a central focus of natural resources management and policy. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow for simulation of landscape level ecological processes, and for managers to test “what if” scenarios of how those processes may affect wildlife habitat. This chapter describes the methods used to link STM output to wildlife habitat to...

Estimating habitat volume of living resources using three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Katharine A.; Schlag, Zachary; North, Elizabeth W.

2018-07-01

Coupled three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models predict changes in water properties that can be used to define fish habitat, including physiologically important parameters such as temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. However, methods for calculating the volume of habitat defined by the intersection of multiple water properties are not well established for coupled three-dimensional models. The objectives of this research were to examine multiple methods for calculating habitat volume from three-dimensional model predictions, select the most robust approach, and provide an example application of the technique. Three methods were assessed: the "Step," "Ruled Surface", and "Pentahedron" methods, the latter of which was developed as part of this research. Results indicate that the analytical Pentahedron method is exact, computationally efficient, and preserves continuity in water properties between adjacent grid cells. As an example application, the Pentahedron method was implemented within the Habitat Volume Model (HabVol) using output from a circulation model with an Arakawa C-grid and physiological tolerances of juvenile striped bass (Morone saxatilis). This application demonstrates that the analytical Pentahedron method can be successfully applied to calculate habitat volume using output from coupled three-dimensional circulation and biogeochemical models, and it indicates that the Pentahedron method has wide application to aquatic and marine systems for which these models exist and physiological tolerances of organisms are known.

Comparing GIS-based habitat models for applications in EIA and SEA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gontier, Mikael, E-mail: gontier@kth.s; Moertberg, Ulla, E-mail: mortberg@kth.s; Balfors, Berit, E-mail: balfors@kth.s

Land use changes, urbanisation and infrastructure developments in particular, cause fragmentation of natural habitats and threaten biodiversity. Tools and measures must be adapted to assess and remedy the potential effects on biodiversity caused by human activities and developments. Within physical planning, environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA) play important roles in the prediction and assessment of biodiversity-related impacts from planned developments. However, adapted prediction tools to forecast and quantify potential impacts on biodiversity components are lacking. This study tested and compared four different GIS-based habitat models and assessed their relevance for applications in environmental assessment. The modelsmore » were implemented in the Stockholm region in central Sweden and applied to data on the crested tit (Parus cristatus), a sedentary bird species of coniferous forest. All four models performed well and allowed the distribution of suitable habitats for the crested tit in the Stockholm region to be predicted. The models were also used to predict and quantify habitat loss for two regional development scenarios. The study highlighted the importance of model selection in impact prediction. Criteria that are relevant for the choice of model for predicting impacts on biodiversity were identified and discussed. Finally, the importance of environmental assessment for the preservation of biodiversity within the general frame of biodiversity conservation is emphasised.« less

A habitat suitability model for Chinese sturgeon determined using the generalized additive method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Yujun; Sun, Jie; Zhang, Shanghong

2016-03-01

The Chinese sturgeon is a type of large anadromous fish that migrates between the ocean and rivers. Because of the construction of dams, this sturgeon's migration path has been cut off, and this species currently is on the verge of extinction. Simulating suitable environmental conditions for spawning followed by repairing or rebuilding its spawning grounds are effective ways to protect this species. Various habitat suitability models based on expert knowledge have been used to evaluate the suitability of spawning habitat. In this study, a two-dimensional hydraulic simulation is used to inform a habitat suitability model based on the generalized additive method (GAM). The GAM is based on real data. The values of water depth and velocity are calculated first via the hydrodynamic model and later applied in the GAM. The final habitat suitability model is validated using the catch per unit effort (CPUEd) data of 1999 and 2003. The model results show that a velocity of 1.06-1.56 m/s and a depth of 13.33-20.33 m are highly suitable ranges for the Chinese sturgeon to spawn. The hydraulic habitat suitability indexes (HHSI) for seven discharges (4000; 9000; 12,000; 16,000; 20,000; 30,000; and 40,000 m3/s) are calculated to evaluate integrated habitat suitability. The results show that the integrated habitat suitability reaches its highest value at a discharge of 16,000 m3/s. This study is the first to apply a GAM to evaluate the suitability of spawning grounds for the Chinese sturgeon. The study provides a reference for the identification of potential spawning grounds in the entire basin.

Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

PubMed

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

2010-03-03

In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

Local population differentiation in Bromus tectorum L. in relation to habitat-specific selection regimes

Treesearch

Jason W. Scott; Susan E. Meyer; Keith R. Merrill; Val J. Anderson

2010-01-01

A central question of invasion biology is how an exotic species invades new habitats following its initial establishment. Three hypotheses to explain this expansion are: (1) the existence of 'general purpose' genotypes, (2) the in situ evolution of novel genotypes, and (3) the dispersal of existing specialized genotypes into habitats for which they are pre-...

Modelling invasion for a habitat generalist and a specialist plant species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Jarnevich, C.S.; Crall, A.W.; Norman, J. B.; Barnett, D.T.

2008-01-01

Predicting suitable habitat and the potential distribution of invasive species is a high priority for resource managers and systems ecologists. Most models are designed to identify habitat characteristics that define the ecological niche of a species with little consideration to individual species' traits. We tested five commonly used modelling methods on two invasive plant species, the habitat generalist Bromus tectorum and habitat specialist Tamarix chinensis, to compare model performances, evaluate predictability, and relate results to distribution traits associated with each species. Most of the tested models performed similarly for each species; however, the generalist species proved to be more difficult to predict than the specialist species. The highest area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values with independent validation data sets of B. tectorum and T. chinensis was 0.503 and 0.885, respectively. Similarly, a confusion matrix for B. tectorum had the highest overall accuracy of 55%, while the overall accuracy for T. chinensis was 85%. Models for the generalist species had varying performances, poor evaluations, and inconsistent results. This may be a result of a generalist's capability to persist in a wide range of environmental conditions that are not easily defined by the data, independent variables or model design. Models for the specialist species had consistently strong performances, high evaluations, and similar results among different model applications. This is likely a consequence of the specialist's requirement for explicit environmental resources and ecological barriers that are easily defined by predictive models. Although defining new invaders as generalist or specialist species can be challenging, model performances and evaluations may provide valuable information on a species' potential invasiveness.

Use of cccupancy models to evaluate expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iglecia, Monica N.; Collazo, Jaime A.; McKerrow, Alexa

2012-01-01

Expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships are used extensively to guide conservation planning, particularly when data are scarce. Purported relationships describe the initial state of knowledge, but are rarely tested. We assessed support in the data for suitability rankings of vegetation types based on expert knowledge for three terrestrial avian species in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States. Experts used published studies, natural history, survey data, and field experience to rank vegetation types as optimal, suitable, and marginal. We used single-season occupancy models, coupled with land cover and Breeding Bird Survey data, to examine the hypothesis that patterns of occupancy conformed to species-habitat suitability rankings purported by experts. Purported habitat suitability was validated for two of three species. As predicted for the Eastern Wood-Pewee (Contopus virens) and Brown-headed Nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), occupancy was strongly influenced by vegetation types classified as “optimal habitat” by the species suitability rankings for nuthatches and wood-pewees. Contrary to predictions, Red-headed Woodpecker (Melanerpes erythrocephalus) models that included vegetation types as covariates received similar support by the data as models without vegetation types. For all three species, occupancy was also related to sampling latitude. Our results suggest that covariates representing other habitat requirements might be necessary to model occurrence of generalist species like the woodpecker. The modeling approach described herein provides a means to test expert knowledge-based species-habitat relationships, and hence, help guide conservation planning.

Tests of wildlife habitat models to evaluate oak-mast production

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schroeder, R.L.; Vangilder, L.D.

1997-01-01

We measured oak-mast production and forest structure and composition in the Ozark Mountains of Missouri and tested the accuracy of oak-mast prediction variables from 5 Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) species models. Acorn production was positively associated with several measures of abundance and canopy cover of oak trees, and with an index of mast production for all 5 HSI models. We developed 2 modified oak-mast models, based on inputs related to either oak tree density or oak canopy cover and diversity of oak tree species. The revised models accounted for 22-32% of the variance associated with acorn abundance. Future tests of HSI models should consider: (1) the concept of upper limits imposed by habitat and the effects of nonhabitat factors; (2) the benefits of a top-down approach to model development; and (3) testing models across broad geographic regions.

A female black bear denning habitat model using a geographic information system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, J.D.; Hayes, S.G.; Pledger, J.M.

1998-01-01

We used the Mahalanobis distance statistic and a raster geographic information system (GIS) to model potential black bear (Ursus americanus) denning habitat in the Ouachita Mountains of Arkansas. The Mahalanobis distance statistic was used to represent the standard squared distance between sample variates in the GIS database (forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to streams, distance to roads, and forest cover richness) and variates at known bear dens. Two models were developed: a generalized model for all den locations and another specific to dens in rock cavities. Differences between habitat at den sites and habitat across the study area were represented in 2 new GIS themes as Mahalanobis distance values. Cells similar to the mean vector derived from the known dens had low Mahalanobis distance values, and dissimilar cells had high values. The reliability of the predictive model was tested by overlaying den locations collected subsequent to original model development on the resultant den habitat themes. Although the generalized model demonstrated poor reliability, the model specific to rock dens had good reliability. Bears were more likely to choose rock den locations with low Mahalanobis distance values and less likely to choose those with high values. The model can be used to plan the timing and extent of management actions (e.g., road building, prescribed fire, timber harvest) most appropriate for those sites with high or low denning potential. 

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative

Factors influencing behavior and transferability of habitat models for a benthic stream fish

Treesearch

Kevin N. Leftwich; Paul L. Angermeier; C. Andrew Dolloff

1997-01-01

The authors examined the predictive power and transferability of habitat-based models by comparing associations of tangerine darter Percina aurantiaca and stream habitat at local and regional scales in North Fork Holston River (NFHR) and Little River, VA. The models correctly predicted the presence or absence of tangerine darters in NFHR for 64 percent (local model)...

The Application of FIA-based Data to Wildlife Habitat Modeling: A Comparative Study

Treesearch

Thomas C., Jr. Edwards; Gretchen G. Moisen; Tracey S. Frescino; Randall J. Schultz

2005-01-01

We evaluated the capability of two types of models, one based on spatially explicit variables derived from FIA data and one using so-called traditional habitat evaluation methods, for predicting the presence of cavity-nesting bird habitat in Fishlake National Forest, Utah. Both models performed equally well, in measures of predictive accuracy, with the FIA-based model...

Relevance of multiple spatial scales in habitat models: A case study with amphibians and grasshoppers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altmoos, Michael; Henle, Klaus

2010-11-01

Habitat models for animal species are important tools in conservation planning. We assessed the need to consider several scales in a case study for three amphibian and two grasshopper species in the post-mining landscapes near Leipzig (Germany). The two species groups were selected because habitat analyses for grasshoppers are usually conducted on one scale only whereas amphibians are thought to depend on more than one spatial scale. First, we analysed how the preference to single habitat variables changed across nested scales. Most environmental variables were only significant for a habitat model on one or two scales, with the smallest scale being particularly important. On larger scales, other variables became significant, which cannot be recognized on lower scales. Similar preferences across scales occurred in only 13 out of 79 cases and in 3 out of 79 cases the preference and avoidance for the same variable were even reversed among scales. Second, we developed habitat models by using a logistic regression on every scale and for all combinations of scales and analysed how the quality of habitat models changed with the scales considered. To achieve a sufficient accuracy of the habitat models with a minimum number of variables, at least two scales were required for all species except for Bufo viridis, for which a single scale, the microscale, was sufficient. Only for the European tree frog ( Hyla arborea), at least three scales were required. The results indicate that the quality of habitat models increases with the number of surveyed variables and with the number of scales, but costs increase too. Searching for simplifications in multi-scaled habitat models, we suggest that 2 or 3 scales should be a suitable trade-off, when attempting to define a suitable microscale.

Numerical modeling of flow focusing: Quantitative characterization of the flow regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamet, V.; Namy, P.; Dedulle, J.-M.

2017-09-01

Among droplet generation technologies, the flow focusing technique is a major process due to its control, stability, and reproducibility. In this process, one fluid (the continuous phase) interacts with another one (the dispersed phase) to create small droplets. Experimental assays in the literature on gas-liquid flow focusing have shown that different jet regimes can be obtained depending on the operating conditions. However, the underlying physical phenomena remain unclear, especially mechanical interactions between the fluids and the oscillation phenomenon of the liquid. In this paper, based on published studies, a numerical diphasic model has been developed to take into consideration the mechanical interaction between phases, using the Cahn-Hilliard method to monitor the interface. Depending on the liquid/gas inputs and the geometrical parameters, various regimes can be obtained, from a steady state regime to an unsteady one with liquid oscillation. In the dispersed phase, the model enables us to compute the evolution of fluid flow, both in space (size of the recirculation zone) and in time (period of oscillation). The transition between unsteady and stationary regimes is assessed in relation to liquid and gas dimensionless numbers, showing the existence of critical thresholds. This model successfully highlights, qualitatively and quantitatively, the influence of the geometry of the nozzle, in particular, its inner diameter.

Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

PubMed Central

Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

2010-01-01

In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

Modelling the habitat suitability of cetaceans: Example of the sperm whale in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Praca, Emilie; Gannier, Alexandre; Das, Krishna; Laran, Sophie

2009-04-01

Cetaceans are mobile and spend long periods underwater. Because of this, modelling their habitat could be subject to a serious problem of false absence. Furthermore, extensive surveys at sea are time and money consuming, and presence-absence data are difficult to apply. This study compares the ability of two presence-absence and two presence-only habitat modelling methods and uses the example of the sperm whale ( Physeter macrocephalus) in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. The data consist of summer visual and acoustical detections of sperm whales, compiled between 1998 and 2005. Habitat maps were computed using topographical and hydrological eco-geographical variables. Four methods were compared: principal component analysis (PCA), ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA), generalized linear model (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The evaluation of the models was achieved by calculating the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) of the models and their respective area under the curve (AUC). Presence-absence methods (GLM, AUC=0.70, and MARS, AUC=0.79) presented better AUC than presence-only methods (PCA, AUC=0.58, and ENFA, AUC=0.66), but this difference was not statistically significant, except between the MARS and the PCA models. The four models showed an influence of both topographical and hydrological factors, but the resulting habitat suitability maps differed. The core habitat on the continental slope was well highlighted by the four models, while GLM and MARS maps also showed a suitable habitat in the offshore waters. Presence-absence methods are therefore recommended for modelling the habitat suitability of cetaceans, as they seem more accurate to highlight complex habitat. However, the use of presence-only techniques, in particular ENFA, could be very useful for a first model of the habitat range or when important surveys at sea are not possible.

Habitat specialization through germination cueing: a comparative study of herbs from forests and open habitats.

PubMed

Ten Brink, Dirk-Jan; Hendriksma, Harmen Pieter; Bruun, Hans Henrik

2013-02-01

This study examined the adaptive association between seed germination ecology and specialization to either forest or open habitats across a range of evolutionary lineages of seed plants, in order to test the hypotheses that (1) species' specialization to open vs. shaded habitats is consistently accompanied by specialization in their regeneration niche; and (2) species are thereby adapted to utilize different windows of opportunity in time (season) and space (habitat). Seed germination response to temperature, light and stratification was tested for 17 congeneric pairs, each consisting of one forest species and one open-habitat species. A factorial design was used with temperature levels and diurnal temperature variation (10 °C constant, 15-5 °C fluctuating, 20 °C constant, 25-15 °C fluctuating), and two light levels (light and darkness) and a cold stratification treatment. The congeneric species pair design took phylogenetic dependence into account. Species from open habitats germinated better at high temperatures, whereas forest species performed equally well at low and high temperatures. Forest species tended to germinate only after a period of cold stratification that could break dormancy, while species from open habitats generally germinated without cold stratification. The empirically derived germination strategies correspond quite well with establishment opportunities for forest and open-habitat plant species in nature. Annual changes in temperature and light regime in temperate forest delimit windows of opportunity for germination and establishment. Germination strategies of forest plants are adaptations to utilize such narrow windows in time. Conversely, lack of fit between germination ecology and environment may explain why species of open habitats generally fail to establish in forests. Germination strategy should be considered an important mechanism for habitat specialization in temperate herbs to forest habitats. The findings strongly suggest that

A method for landscape analysis of forestry guidelines using bird habitat models and the Habplan harvest scheduler

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehle, C.; Van Deusen, P.; Wigley, T.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Rutzmoser, S.H.; Aggett, J.; Beebe, J.A.; Smith, M.L.

2006-01-01

Wildlife-habitat relationship models have sometimes been linked with forest simulators to aid in evaluating outcomes of forest management alternatives. However, linking wildlife-habitat models with harvest scheduling software would provide a more direct method for assessing economic and ecological implications of alternative harvest schedules in commercial forest operations. We demonstrate an approach for frontier analyses of wildlife benefits using the Habplan harvest scheduler and spatially explicit wildlife response models in the context of operational forest planning. We used the Habplan harvest scheduler to plan commercial forest management over a 40-year horizon at a landscape scale under five scenarios: unmanaged, an unlimited block-size option both with and without riparian buffers, three cases with different block-size restrictions, and a set-asides scenario in which older stands were withheld from cutting. The potential benefit to wildlife was projected based on spatial models of bird guild richness and species probability of detection. Harvested wood volume provided a measure of scenario costs, which provides an indication of management feasibility. Of nine species and guilds, none appeared to benefit from 50 m riparian buffers, response to an unmanaged scenario was mixed and expensive, and block-size restrictions (maximum harvest unit size) provided no apparent benefit and in some cases were possibly detrimental to bird richness. A set-aside regime, however, appeared to provide significant benefits to all species and groups, probably through increased landscape heterogeneity and increased availability of older forest. Our approach shows promise for evaluating costs and benefits of forest management guidelines in commercial forest enterprises and improves upon the state of the art by utilizing an optimizing harvest scheduler as in commercial forest management, multiple measures of biodiversity (models for multiple species and guilds), and spatially

Continuous Probabilistic Modeling of Tracer Stone Dispersal in Upper Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez Moreira, R. R.; Viparelli, E.

2017-12-01

Morphodynamic models that specifically account for the non-uniformity of the bed material are generally based on some form of the active layer approximation. These models have proven to be useful tools in the study of transport, erosion and deposition of non-uniform bed material in the case of channel bed aggradation and degradation. However, when local spatial effects over short time scales compared to those characterizing the changes in mean bed elevation dominate the vertical sediment fluxes, as is the presence of bedforms, active layer models cannot capture key details of the sediment transport process. To overcome the limitations of active layer based models, Parker, Paola and Leclair (PPL) proposed a continuous probabilistic modeling frameworks in which the sediment exchange between the bedload transport and the mobile bed is described in terms of probability density functions of bed elevation, entrainment and deposition. Here we present the implementation of a modified version of the PPL modeling framework for the study of tracer stones dispsersal in upper regime bedload transport conditions (i.e. upper regime plane bed at the transition between dunes and antidunes, downstream migrating antidunes and upper regime plane bed with bedload transport in sheet flow mode) in which the probability functions are based on measured time series of bed elevation fluctuations. The extension to the more general case of mixtures of sediments differing in size is the future development of the proposed work.

A spatial model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, J.R.; Parsley, M.J.

2009-01-01

Concerns over the potential effects of in-water placement of dredged materials prompted us to develop a GIS-based model that characterizes in a spatially explicit manner white sturgeon Acipenser transmontanus rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, USA. The spatial model was developed using water depth, riverbed slope and roughness, fish positions collected in 2002, and Mahalanobis distance (D2). We created a habitat suitability map by identifying a Mahalanobis distance under which >50% of white sturgeon locations occurred in 2002 (i.e., high-probability habitat). White sturgeon preferred relatively moderate to high water depths, and low to moderate riverbed slope and roughness values. The eigenvectors indicated that riverbed slope and roughness were slightly more important than water depth, but all three variables were important. We estimated the impacts that fill might have on sturgeon habitat by simulating the addition of fill to the thalweg, in 3-m increments, and recomputing Mahalanobis distances. Channel filling simulations revealed that up to 9 m of fill would have little impact on high-probability habitat, but 12 and 15 m of fill resulted in habitat declines of ???12% and ???45%, respectively. This is the first spatially explicit predictive model of white sturgeon rearing habitat in the lower Columbia River, and the first to quantitatively predict the impacts of dredging operations on sturgeon habitat. Future research should consider whether water velocity improves the accuracy and specificity of the model, and to assess its applicability to other areas in the Columbia River.

Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialist

PubMed Central

Latif, Quresh S; Saab, Victoria A; Dudley, Jonathan G; Hollenbeck, Jeff P

2013-01-01

To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can be unclear (Northwestern U.S.A.). We predicted habitat suitability for nesting Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus; a burned-forest specialist) at 20 recently (≤6 years postwildfire) burned locations in Montana using models calibrated with data from three locations in Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. We developed 8 models using three techniques (weighted logistic regression, Maxent, and Mahalanobis D2 models) and various combinations of four environmental variables describing burn severity, the north–south orientation of topographic slope, and prefire canopy cover. After translating model predictions into binary classifications (0 = low suitability to unsuitable, 1 = high to moderate suitability), we compiled “ensemble predictions,” consisting of the number of models (0–8) predicting any given site as highly suitable. The suitability status for 40% of the area burned by eastside Montana wildfires was consistent across models and therefore robust to uncertainty in the relative accuracy of particular models and in alternative ecological hypotheses they described. Ensemble predictions exhibited two desirable properties: (1) a positive relationship with apparent rates of nest occurrence at calibration locations and (2) declining model agreement outside surveyed environments consistent with our reduced confidence in novel (i.e., “no-analogue”) environments. Areas of disagreement among models suggested where future surveys could help validate and refine models for an improved understanding of Black-backed Woodpecker nesting habitat relationships. Ensemble predictions presented here can

Hydrologic characteristics of freshwater mussel habitat: novel insights from modeled flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drew, C. Ashton; Eddy, Michele; Kwak, Thomas J.; Cope, W. Gregory; Augspurger, Tom

2018-01-01

The ability to model freshwater stream habitat and species distributions is limited by the spatially sparse flow data available from long-term gauging stations. Flow data beyond the immediate vicinity of gauging stations would enhance our ability to explore and characterize hydrologic habitat suitability. The southeastern USA supports high aquatic biodiversity, but threats, such as landuse alteration, climate change, conflicting water-resource demands, and pollution, have led to the imperilment and legal protection of many species. The ability to distinguish suitable from unsuitable habitat conditions, including hydrologic suitability, is a key criterion for successful conservation and restoration of aquatic species. We used the example of the critically endangered Tar River Spinymussel (Parvaspina steinstansana) and associated species to demonstrate the value of modeled flow data (WaterFALL™) to generate novel insights into population structure and testable hypotheses regarding hydrologic suitability. With ordination models, we: 1) identified all catchments with potentially suitable hydrology, 2) identified 2 distinct hydrologic environments occupied by the Tar River Spinymussel, and 3) estimated greater hydrological habitat niche breadth of assumed surrogate species associates at the catchment scale. Our findings provide the first demonstrated application of complete, continuous, regional modeled hydrologic data to freshwater mussel distribution and management. This research highlights the utility of modeling and data-mining methods to facilitate further exploration and application of such modeled environmental conditions to inform aquatic species management. We conclude that such an approach can support landscape-scale management decisions that require spatial information at fine resolution (e.g., enhanced National Hydrology Dataset catchments) and broad extent (e.g., multiple river basins).

New England wildlife: a model for ecosystem management – ECOSEARCH (version 1)

Treesearch

Henry L. Short; Jay B. Hestbeck; Richard M. DeGraaf

2001-01-01

This volume describes how ECOSEARCH species-habitat models are developed using information about the natural history of species, habitat descriptions, and specific descriptors for soils, topography, water regimes, and vertical habitat structure. Also, examples are provided that demonstrate the impacts of: 1) converting a wooded swamp into a recreational lake with...

Discrete choice modeling of shovelnose sturgeon habitat selection in the Lower Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonnot, T.W.; Wildhaber, M.L.; Millspaugh, J.J.; DeLonay, A.J.; Jacobson, R.B.; Bryan, J.L.

2011-01-01

Substantive changes to physical habitat in the Lower Missouri River, resulting from intensive management, have been implicated in the decline of pallid (Scaphirhynchus albus) and shovelnose (S. platorynchus) sturgeon. To aid in habitat rehabilitation efforts, we evaluated habitat selection of gravid, female shovelnose sturgeon during the spawning season in two sections (lower and upper) of the Lower Missouri River in 2005 and in the upper section in 2007. We fit discrete choice models within an information theoretic framework to identify selection of means and variability in three components of physical habitat. Characterizing habitat within divisions around fish better explained selection than habitat values at the fish locations. In general, female shovelnose sturgeon were negatively associated with mean velocity between them and the bank and positively associated with variability in surrounding depths. For example, in the upper section in 2005, a 0.5 m s-1 decrease in velocity within 10 m in the bank direction increased the relative probability of selection 70%. In the upper section fish also selected sites with surrounding structure in depth (e.g., change in relief). Differences in models between sections and years, which are reinforced by validation rates, suggest that changes in habitat due to geomorphology, hydrology, and their interactions over time need to be addressed when evaluating habitat selection. Because of the importance of variability in surrounding depths, these results support an emphasis on restoring channel complexity as an objective of habitat restoration for shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

Relating FIA data to habitat classifications via tree-based models of canopy cover

Treesearch

Mark D. Nelson; Brian G. Tavernia; Chris Toney; Brian F. Walters

2012-01-01

Wildlife species-habitat matrices are used to relate lists of species with abundance of their habitats. The Forest Inventory and Analysis Program provides data on forest composition and structure, but these attributes may not correspond directly with definitions of wildlife habitats. We used FIA tree data and tree crown diameter models to estimate canopy cover, from...

Systems Modeling to Improve River, Riparian, and Wetland Habitat Quality and Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alafifi, A.

2016-12-01

The suitability of watershed habitat to support the livelihood of its biota primarily depends on managing flow. Ecological restoration requires finding opportunities to reallocate available water in a watershed to increase ecological benefits and maintain other beneficial uses. We present the Watershed Area of Suitable Habitat (WASH) systems model that recommends reservoir releases, streamflows, and water allocations throughout a watershed to maximize the ecosystem habitat quality. WASH embeds and aggregates area-weighted metrics for aquatic, floodplain, and wetland habitat components as an ecosystem objective to maximize, while maintaining water deliveries for domestic and agricultural uses, mass balance, and available budget for restoration actions. The metrics add spatial and temporal functionality and area coverage to traditional habitat quality indexes and can accommodate multiple species of concern. We apply the WASH model to the Utah portion of the Bear River watershed which includes 8 demand sites, 5 reservoirs and 37 nodes between the Utah-Idaho state line and the Great Salt Lake. We recommend water allocations to improve current conservation efforts and show tradeoffs between human and ecosystem uses of water. WASH results are displayed on an open-source web mapping application that allows stakeholders to access, visualize, and interact with the model data and results and compare current and model-recommended operations. Results show that the Bear River is largely developed and appropriated for human water uses. However, increasing reservoirs winter and early spring releases and minimizing late spring spill volumes can significantly improve habitat quality without harming agricultural or urban water users. The spatial and temporal reallocation of spring spills to environmental uses creates additional 70 thousand acres of suitable habitat in the watershed without harming human users. WASH also quantifies the potential environmental gains and losses from

The Importance of Distance to Resources in the Spatial Modelling of Bat Foraging Habitat

PubMed Central

Rainho, Ana; Palmeirim, Jorge M.

2011-01-01

Many bats are threatened by habitat loss, but opportunities to manage their habitats are now increasing. Success of management depends greatly on the capacity to determine where and how interventions should take place, so models predicting how animals use landscapes are important to plan them. Bats are quite distinctive in the way they use space for foraging because (i) most are colonial central-place foragers and (ii) exploit scattered and distant resources, although this increases flying costs. To evaluate how important distances to resources are in modelling foraging bat habitat suitability, we radio-tracked two cave-dwelling species of conservation concern (Rhinolophus mehelyi and Miniopterus schreibersii) in a Mediterranean landscape. Habitat and distance variables were evaluated using logistic regression modelling. Distance variables greatly increased the performance of models, and distance to roost and to drinking water could alone explain 86 and 73% of the use of space by M. schreibersii and R. mehelyi, respectively. Land-cover and soil productivity also provided a significant contribution to the final models. Habitat suitability maps generated by models with and without distance variables differed substantially, confirming the shortcomings of maps generated without distance variables. Indeed, areas shown as highly suitable in maps generated without distance variables proved poorly suitable when distance variables were also considered. We concluded that distances to resources are determinant in the way bats forage across the landscape, and that using distance variables substantially improves the accuracy of suitability maps generated with spatially explicit models. Consequently, modelling with these variables is important to guide habitat management in bats and similarly mobile animals, particularly if they are central-place foragers or depend on spatially scarce resources. PMID:21547076

Froude Number is the Single Most Important Hydraulic Parameter for Salmonid Spawning Habitat.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillies, E.; Moir, H. J.

2015-12-01

Many gravel-bed rivers exhibit historic straightening or embanking, reducing river complexity and the available habitat for key species such as salmon. A defensible method for predicting salmonid spawning habitat is an important tool for anyone engaged in assessing a river restoration. Most empirical methods to predict spawning habitat use lookup tables of depth, velocity and substrate. However, natural site selection is different: salmon must pick a location where they can successfully build a redd, and where eggs have a sufficient survival rate. Also, using dimensional variables, such as depth and velocity, is problematic: spawning occurs in rivers of differing size, depth and velocity range. Non-dimensional variables have proven useful in other branches of fluid dynamics, and instream habitat is no different. Empirical river data has a high correlation between observed salmon redds and Froude number, without insight into why. Here we present a physics based model of spawning and bedform evolution, which shows that Froude number is indeed a rational choice for characterizing the bedform, substrate, and flow necessary for spawning. It is familiar for Froude to characterize surface waves, but Froude also characterizes longitudinal bedform in a mobile bed river. We postulate that these bedforms and their hydraulics perform two roles in salmonid spawning: allowing transport of clasts during redd building, and oxygenating eggs. We present an example of this Froude number and substrate based habitat characterization on a Scottish river for which we have detailed topography at several stages during river restoration and subsequent evolution of natural processes. We show changes to the channel Froude regime as a result of natural process and validate habitat predictions against redds observed during 2014 and 2015 spawning seasons, also relating this data to the Froude regime in other, nearby, rivers. We discuss the use of the Froude spectrum in providing an indicator of

[Maximum entropy model versus remote sensing-based methods for extracting Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats].

PubMed

Cong-Cong, Xia; Cheng-Fang, Lu; Si, Li; Tie-Jun, Zhang; Sui-Heng, Lin; Yi, Hu; Ying, Liu; Zhi-Jie, Zhang

2016-12-02

To explore the technique of maximum entropy model for extracting Oncomelania hupensis snail habitats in Poyang Lake zone. The information of snail habitats and related environment factors collected in Poyang Lake zone were integrated to set up the maximum entropy based species model and generate snail habitats distribution map. Two Landsat 7 ETM+ remote sensing images of both wet and drought seasons in Poyang Lake zone were obtained, where the two indices of modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were applied to extract snail habitats. The ROC curve, sensitivities and specificities were applied to assess their results. Furthermore, the importance of the variables for snail habitats was analyzed by using Jackknife approach. The evaluation results showed that the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of testing data by the remote sensing-based method was only 0.56, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.23 and 0.89 respectively. Nevertheless, those indices above-mentioned of maximum entropy model were 0.876, 0.89 and 0.74 respectively. The main concentration of snail habitats in Poyang Lake zone covered the northeast part of Yongxiu County, northwest of Yugan County, southwest of Poyang County and middle of Xinjian County, and the elevation was the most important environment variable affecting the distribution of snails, and the next was land surface temperature (LST). The maximum entropy model is more reliable and accurate than the remote sensing-based method for the sake of extracting snail habitats, which has certain guiding significance for the relevant departments to carry out measures to prevent and control high-risk snail habitats.

Backwater control on riffle pool hydraulics, fish habitat quality, and sediment transport regime in gravel-bed rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasternack, Gregory B.; Bounrisavong, Michael K.; Parikh, Kaushal K.

2008-07-01

SummaryThe importance of channel non-uniformity to natural hydrogeomorphic and ecological processes in gravel-bed rivers is becoming increasingly known, but its use in channel rehabilitation lags behind. Many projects still use methods that assume steady, uniform flow and simple channel geometries. One aspect of channel non-uniformity that has not been considered much is its role in controlling backwater conditions and thus potentially influencing patterns of physical habitat and channel stability in sequences of riffles and pools. In this study, 2D hydrodynamic models of two non-uniform pool-riffle-pool configurations were used to systematically explore the effects of four different downstream water surface elevations at three different discharges (24 total simulations) on riffle-pool ecohydraulics. Downstream water surface elevations tested included backwater, uniform, accelerating, and critical conditions, which are naturally set by downstream riffle-crest morphology but may also be re-engineered artificially. Discharges included a fish-spawning low flow, summer fish-attraction flow, and a peak snowmelt pulse. It was found that the occurrence of a significant area of high-quality fish spawning habitat at low flow depends on riffles being imposed upon by backwater conditions, which also delay the onset of full bed mobility on riffles during floods. The assumption of steady, uniform flow was found to be inappropriate for gravel-bed rivers, since their non-uniformity controls spatial patterns of habitat and sediment transport. Also, model results indicated that a "reverse domino" mechanism can explain catastrophic failure and re-organization of a sequence of riffles based on the water surface elevation response to scour on downstream riffles, which then increases scour on upstream riffles.

ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

SMALL MAMMALS: CONSEQUENCES OF STOCHASTIC DATA VARIATION FOR MODELING INDICATORS OF HABITAT SUITABILITY FOR A WELL-STUDIED RESOURCE

EPA Science Inventory

Increasingly, models of physical habitat variables (i.e. vegetation, soil) are utilized as indicators of small mammal habitat suitability or quality. Presumably, use of physical habitat models indicating habitat suitability or quality would be improved and enhanced by the extens...

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David R.; Foster, Tammy E.; Carter, Geoffrey M.; Duncan, Brean W.; Stolen, Eric D.; Lyon, James E.

2018-01-01

The combined effects of fire history, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) on habitat specialists need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually only emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights, which are dynamic because of frequent fires. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells (that represented potential territories) because fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities vary between states as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges (e.g., roads, forests), precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presence/absence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the longest fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Edges reduced the effectiveness of fires in setting degraded scrub and flatwoods into earlier successional states making mechanical cutting an important tool to compliment frequent prescribed fires.

Development and field validation of a regional, management-scale habitat model: A koala Phascolarctos cinereus case study.

PubMed

Law, Bradley; Caccamo, Gabriele; Roe, Paul; Truskinger, Anthony; Brassil, Traecey; Gonsalves, Leroy; McConville, Anna; Stanton, Matthew

2017-09-01

Species distribution models have great potential to efficiently guide management for threatened species, especially for those that are rare or cryptic. We used MaxEnt to develop a regional-scale model for the koala Phascolarctos cinereus at a resolution (250 m) that could be used to guide management. To ensure the model was fit for purpose, we placed emphasis on validating the model using independently-collected field data. We reduced substantial spatial clustering of records in coastal urban areas using a 2-km spatial filter and by modeling separately two subregions separated by the 500-m elevational contour. A bias file was prepared that accounted for variable survey effort. Frequency of wildfire, soil type, floristics and elevation had the highest relative contribution to the model, while a number of other variables made minor contributions. The model was effective in discriminating different habitat suitability classes when compared with koala records not used in modeling. We validated the MaxEnt model at 65 ground-truth sites using independent data on koala occupancy (acoustic sampling) and habitat quality (browse tree availability). Koala bellows ( n  = 276) were analyzed in an occupancy modeling framework, while site habitat quality was indexed based on browse trees. Field validation demonstrated a linear increase in koala occupancy with higher modeled habitat suitability at ground-truth sites. Similarly, a site habitat quality index at ground-truth sites was correlated positively with modeled habitat suitability. The MaxEnt model provided a better fit to estimated koala occupancy than the site-based habitat quality index, probably because many variables were considered simultaneously by the model rather than just browse species. The positive relationship of the model with both site occupancy and habitat quality indicates that the model is fit for application at relevant management scales. Field-validated models of similar resolution would assist in

Assessing Wildlife Habitat Value of New England Salt Marshes: II. Model Testing and Validation

EPA Science Inventory

We test a previously described model to assess the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes by comparing modeled habitat values and scores with bird abundance and species richness at sixteen salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island USA. Assessment scores ranged f...

Alligator, Alligator mississippiensis, habitat suitability index model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waddle, J. Hardin

2017-01-01

The 2012 Coastal Master Plan utilized Habitat Suitability Indices (HSIs) to evaluate potential project effects on wildlife species. Even though HSIs quantify habitat condition, which may not directly correlate to species abundance, they remain a practical and tractable way to assess changes in habitat quality from various restoration actions. As part of the legislatively mandated five year update to the 2012 plan, the wildlife habitat suitability indices were updated and revised using literature and existing field data where available. The outcome of these efforts resulted in improved, or in some cases entirely new suitability indices. This report describes the development of the habitat suitability indices for the American alligator, Alligator mississippiensis.

Simplified ISCCP cloud regimes for evaluating cloudiness in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Daeho; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Lee, Dongmin

2017-01-01

We take advantage of ISCCP simulator data available for many models that participated in CMIP5, in order to introduce a framework for comparing model cloud output with corresponding ISCCP observations based on the cloud regime (CR) concept. Simplified global CRs are employed derived from the co-variations of three variables, namely cloud optical thickness, cloud top pressure and cloud fraction ( τ, p c , CF). Following evaluation criteria established in a companion paper of ours (Jin et al. 2016), we assess model cloud simulation performance based on how well the simplified CRs are simulated in terms of similarity of centroids, global values and map correlations of relative-frequency-of-occurrence, and long-term total cloud amounts. Mirroring prior results, modeled clouds tend to be too optically thick and not as extensive as in observations. CRs with high-altitude clouds from storm activity are not as well simulated here compared to the previous study, but other regimes containing near-overcast low clouds show improvement. Models that have performed well in the companion paper against CRs defined by joint τ- p c histograms distinguish themselves again here, but improvements for previously underperforming models are also seen. Averaging across models does not yield a drastically better picture, except for cloud geographical locations. Cloud evaluation with simplified regimes seems thus more forgiving than that using histogram-based CRs while still strict enough to reveal model weaknesses.

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels

PubMed Central

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J.; Guinn, Steven M.; Engelhardt, Katharina A. M.; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested. PMID:27788209

Modeled Tradeoffs between Developed Land Protection and Tidal Habitat Maintenance during Rising Sea Levels.

PubMed

Cadol, Daniel; Elmore, Andrew J; Guinn, Steven M; Engelhardt, Katharina A M; Sanders, Geoffrey

2016-01-01

Tidal habitats host a diversity of species and provide hydrological services such as shoreline protection and nutrient attenuation. Accretion of sediment and biomass enables tidal marshes and swamps to grow vertically, providing a degree of resilience to rising sea levels. Even if accelerating sea level rise overcomes this vertical resilience, tidal habitats have the potential to migrate inland as they continue to occupy land that falls within the new tide range elevations. The existence of developed land inland of tidal habitats, however, may prevent this migration as efforts are often made to dyke and protect developments. To test the importance of inland migration to maintaining tidal habitat abundance under a range of potential rates of sea level rise, we developed a spatially explicit elevation tracking and habitat switching model, dubbed the Marsh Accretion and Inundation Model (MAIM), which incorporates elevation-dependent net land surface elevation gain functions. We applied the model to the metropolitan Washington, DC region, finding that the abundance of small National Park Service units and other public open space along the tidal Potomac River system provides a refuge to which tidal habitats may retreat to maintain total habitat area even under moderate sea level rise scenarios (0.7 m and 1.1 m rise by 2100). Under a severe sea level rise scenario associated with ice sheet collapse (1.7 m by 2100) habitat area is maintained only if no development is protected from rising water. If all existing development is protected, then 5%, 10%, and 40% of the total tidal habitat area is lost by 2100 for the three sea level rise scenarios tested.

High Resolution Habitat Suitability Modelling For Restricted-Range Hawaiian Alpine Arthropod Species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, N. M.

2016-12-01

Mapping potentially suitable habitat is critical for effective species conservation and management but can be challenging in areas exhibiting complex heterogeneity. An approach that combines non-intrusive spatial data collection techniques and field data can lead to a better understanding of landscapes and species distributions. Nysius wekiuicola, commonly known as the wēkiu bug, is the most studied arthropod species endemic to the Maunakea summit in Hawai`i, yet details about its geographic distribution and habitat use remain poorly understood. To predict the geographic distribution of N. wekiuicola, MaxEnt habitat suitability models were generated from a diverse set of input variables, including fifteen years of species occurrence data, high resolution digital elevation models, surface mineralogy maps derived from hyperspectral remote sensing, and climate data. Model results indicate that elevation (78.2 percent), and the presence of nanocrystalline hematite surface minerals (13.7 percent) had the highest influence, with lesser contributions from aspect, slope, and other surface mineral classes. Climatic variables were not included in the final analysis due to auto-correlation and coarse spatial resolution. Biotic factors relating to predation and competition also likely dictate wēkiu bug capture patterns and influence our results. The wēkiu bug range and habitat suitability models generated as a result of this study will be directly incorporated into management and restoration goals for the summit region and can also be adapted for other arthropod species present, leading to a more holistic understanding of metacommunity dynamics. Key words: Microhabitat, Structure from Motion, Lidar, MaxEnt, Habitat Suitability

Habitat Suitability Index Models: Mink

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Arthur W.

1983-01-01

The mink (Mustela vison) is a predatory, semiaquatic mammal that is generally associated with stream and river banks, lake shores, fresh and saltwater marshes, and marine shore habitats (Gerell 1970).  Mink are chiefly nocturnal and remain active throughout the year (Marshall 1936); Gerell 1969; Burgess 1978).  The species is adaptable in its use of habitat, modifying daily habits according to environmental conditions, particularly prey availability (Wise et al. 1981; Linn and Birds 1981; Birks and Linn 1982).  The species is tolerant of human activity and will inhabit suboptimum habitats as long as an adequate food source is available; however, mink will be more mobile and change home ranges more frequently under such conditions (Linn pers. comm.).

On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; ...

2016-03-04

Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

Summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in southeastern Tajikistan: A modeling approach.

PubMed

Salas, Eric Ariel L; Valdez, Raul; Michel, Stefan

2017-11-01

We modeled summer and winter habitat suitability of Marco Polo argali in the Pamir Mountains in southeastern Tajikistan using these statistical algorithms: Generalized Linear Model, Random Forest, Boosted Regression Tree, Maxent, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines. Using sheep occurrence data collected from 2009 to 2015 and a set of selected habitat predictors, we produced summer and winter habitat suitability maps and determined the important habitat suitability predictors for both seasons. Our results demonstrated that argali selected proximity to riparian areas and greenness as the two most relevant variables for summer, and the degree of slope (gentler slopes between 0° to 20°) and Landsat temperature band for winter. The terrain roughness was also among the most important variables in summer and winter models. Aspect was only significant for winter habitat, with argali preferring south-facing mountain slopes. We evaluated various measures of model performance such as the Area Under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Comparing the five algorithms, the AUC scored highest for Boosted Regression Tree in summer (AUC = 0.94) and winter model runs (AUC = 0.94). In contrast, Random Forest underperformed in both model runs.

A modeling approach to establish environmental flow threshold in ungauged semidiurnal tidal river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akter, A.; Tanim, A. H.

2018-03-01

Due to shortage of flow monitoring data in ungauged semidiurnal river, 'environmental flow' (EF) determination based on its key component 'minimum low flow' is always difficult. For EF assessment this study selected a reach immediately after the Halda-Karnafuli confluence, a unique breeding ground for Indian Carp fishes of Bangladesh. As part of an ungauged tidal river, EF threshold establishment faces challenges in changing ecological paradigms with periodic change of tides and hydrologic alterations. This study describes a novel approach through modeling framework comprising hydrological, hydrodynamic and habitat simulation model. The EF establishment was conceptualized according to the hydrologic process of an ungauged semi-diurnal tidal regime in four steps. Initially, a hydrologic model coupled with a hydrodynamic model to simulate flow considering land use changes effect on streamflow, seepage loss of channel, friction dominated tidal decay as well as lack of long term flow characteristics. Secondly, to define hydraulic habitat feature, a statistical analysis on derived flow data was performed to identify 'habitat suitability'. Thirdly, to observe the ecological habitat behavior based on the identified hydrologic alteration, hydraulic habitat features were investigated. Finally, based on the combined habitat suitability index flow alteration and ecological response relationship was established. Then, the obtained EF provides a set of low flow indices of desired regime and thus the obtained discharge against maximum Weighted Usable Area (WUA) was defined as EF threshold for the selected reach. A suitable EF regime condition was obtained within flow range 25-30.1 m3/s i.e., around 10-12% of the mean annual runoff of 245 m3/s and these findings are within researchers' recommendation of minimum flow requirement. Additionally it was observed that tidal characteristics are dominant process in semi-diurnal regime. However, during the study period (2010-2015) the

Incubation success and habitat selection of shore-spawning kokanee Onchorhynchus nerka: effects of water level regulation and habitat characteristics.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whitlock, Steven L.; Quist, Michael C.; Dux, Andrew M.

2014-01-01

Changes to water-level regimes have been known to restructure fish assemblages and interfere with the population dynamics of both littoral and pelagic species. The effect of altered water-level regimes on shore-spawning kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka incubation success was evaluated using a comprehensive in situ study in Lake Pend Oreille, ID, USA. Survival was not related to substrate size composition or depth, indicating that shore-spawning kokanee do not currently receive a substrate-mediated survival benefit from higher winter water levels. Substrate composition also did not differ among isobaths in the nearshore area. On average, the odds of an egg surviving to the preemergent stage were more than three times greater for sites in downwelling areas than those lacking downwelling. This study revealed that shoreline spawning habitat is not as limited as previously thought. Downwelling areas appear to contribute substantially to shore-spawning kokanee recruitment. This research illustrates the value of rigorous in situ studies both for testing potential mechanisms underlying population trends and providing insight into spawning habitat selection.

A second-order impact model for forest fire regimes.

PubMed

Maggi, Stefano; Rinaldi, Sergio

2006-09-01

We present a very simple "impact" model for the description of forest fires and show that it can mimic the known characteristics of wild fire regimes in savannas, boreal forests, and Mediterranean forests. Moreover, the distribution of burned biomasses in model generated fires resemble those of burned areas in numerous large forests around the world. The model has also the merits of being the first second-order model for forest fires and the first example of the use of impact models in the study of ecosystems.

Evolutionary consequences of habitat loss for Pacific anadromous salmonids

PubMed Central

McClure, Michelle M; Carlson, Stephanie M; Beechie, Timothy J; Pess, George R; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Sogard, Susan M; Sultan, Sonia E; Holzer, Damon M; Travis, Joseph; Sanderson, Beth L; Power, Mary E; Carmichael, Richard W

2008-01-01

Large portions of anadromous salmonid habitat in the western United States has been lost because of dams and other blockages. This loss has the potential to affect salmonid evolution through natural selection if the loss is biased, affecting certain types of habitat differentially, and if phenotypic traits correlated with those habitat types are heritable. Habitat loss can also affect salmonid evolution indirectly, by reducing genetic variation and changing its distribution within and among populations. In this paper, we compare the characteristics of lost habitats with currently accessible habitats and review the heritability of traits which show correlations with habitat/environmental gradients. We find that although there is some regional variation, inaccessible habitats tend to be higher in elevation, wetter and both warmer in the summer and colder in the winter than habitats currently available to anadromous salmonids. We present several case studies that demonstrate either a change in phenotypic or life history expression or an apparent reduction in genetic variation associated with habitat blockages. These results suggest that loss of habitat will alter evolutionary trajectories in salmonid populations and Evolutionarily Significant Units. Changes in both selective regime and standing genetic diversity might affect the ability of these taxa to respond to subsequent environmental perturbations. Both natural and anthropogenic and should be considered seriously in developing management and conservation strategies. PMID:25567633

Multiple climate regimes in an idealized lake-ice-atmosphere model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, Noriyuki; Kravtsov, Sergey; Roebber, Paul

2018-01-01

In recent decades, the Laurentian Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming with the summertime trends substantially exceeding the warming rates of surrounding land. Warming of the deepest (Lake Superior) was the strongest, and that of the shallowest (Lake Erie)—the weakest of all lakes. To investigate the dynamics of accelerated lake warming, we considered single-column and multi-column thermodynamic lake-ice models coupled to an idealized two-layer atmosphere. The variable temperature of the upper atmospheric layer—a proxy for the large-scale atmospheric forcing—consisted, in the most general case, of a linear trend mimicking the global warming and atmospheric interannual variability, both on top of the prescribed seasonal cycle of the upper-air temperature. The atmospheric boundary layer of the coupled model exchanged heat with the lake and exhibited lateral diffusive heat transports between the adjacent atmospheric columns. In simpler single-column models, we find that, for a certain range of periodic atmospheric forcing, each lake possesses two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, which we call "regimes"—with and without lake-ice occurrence in winter and with corresponding cold and warm temperatures in the following summer, respectively, all under an identical seasonally varying external forcing. Deeper lakes exhibit larger differences in their summertime surface water temperature between the warm and cold regimes, due to their larger thermal and dynamical inertia. The regime behavior of multi-column coupled models is similar but more complex, and in some cases, they admit more than two stable equilibrium seasonal cycles, with varying degrees of wintertime ice-cover. The simulated lake response to climate change in the presence of the atmospheric noise rationalizes the observed accelerated warming of the lakes, the correlation between wintertime ice cover and next summer's lake-surface temperature, as well as higher warming trends of the

An index of reservoir habitat impairment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, L.E.; Hunt, K.M.

2011-01-01

Fish habitat impairment resulting from natural and anthropogenic watershed and in-lake processes has in many cases reduced the ability of reservoirs to sustain native fish assemblages and fisheries quality. Rehabilitation of impaired reservoirs is hindered by the lack of a method suitable for scoring impairment status. To address this limitation, an index of reservoir habitat impairment (IRHI) was developed by merging 14 metrics descriptive of common impairment sources, with each metric scored from 0 (no impairment) to 5 (high impairment) by fisheries scientists with local knowledge. With a plausible range of 5 to 25, distribution of the IRHI scores ranged from 5 to 23 over 482 randomly selected reservoirs dispersed throughout the USA. The IRHI reflected five impairment factors including siltation, structural habitat, eutrophication, water regime, and aquatic plants. The factors were weakly related to key reservoir characteristics including reservoir area, depth, age, and usetype, suggesting that common reservoir descriptors are poor predictors of fish habitat impairment. The IRHI is rapid and inexpensive to calculate, provides an easily understood measure of the overall habitat impairment, allows comparison of reservoirs and therefore prioritization of restoration activities, and may be used to track restoration progress. The major limitation of the IRHI is its reliance on unstandardized professional judgment rather than standardized empirical measurements. ?? 2010 US Government.

A Resource-Based Modelling Framework to Assess Habitat Suitability for Steppe Birds in Semiarid Mediterranean Agricultural Systems

PubMed Central

Cardador, Laura; De Cáceres, Miquel; Bota, Gerard; Giralt, David; Casas, Fabián; Arroyo, Beatriz; Mougeot, François; Cantero-Martínez, Carlos; Moncunill, Judit; Butler, Simon J.; Brotons, Lluís

2014-01-01

European agriculture is undergoing widespread changes that are likely to have profound impacts on farmland biodiversity. The development of tools that allow an assessment of the potential biodiversity effects of different land-use alternatives before changes occur is fundamental to guiding management decisions. In this study, we develop a resource-based model framework to estimate habitat suitability for target species, according to simple information on species’ key resource requirements (diet, foraging habitat and nesting site), and examine whether it can be used to link land-use and local species’ distribution. We take as a study case four steppe bird species in a lowland area of the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula. We also compare the performance of our resource-based approach to that obtained through habitat-based models relating species’ occurrence and land-cover variables. Further, we use our resource-based approach to predict the effects that change in farming systems can have on farmland bird habitat suitability and compare these predictions with those obtained using the habitat-based models. Habitat suitability estimates generated by our resource-based models performed similarly (and better for one study species) than habitat based-models when predicting current species distribution. Moderate prediction success was achieved for three out of four species considered by resource-based models and for two of four by habitat-based models. Although, there is potential for improving the performance of resource-based models, they provide a structure for using available knowledge of the functional links between agricultural practices, provision of key resources and the response of organisms to predict potential effects of changing land-uses in a variety of context or the impacts of changes such as altered management practices that are not easily incorporated into habitat-based models. PMID:24667825

An analytical method for assessing the spatial and temporal variation of juvenile Atlantic salmon habitat in an upland Scottish river.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buddendorf, B.; Fabris, L.; Malcolm, I.; Lazzaro, G.; Tetzlaff, D.; Botter, G.; Soulsby, C.

2016-12-01

Wild Atlantic salmon populations in Scottish rivers constitute an important economic and recreational resource, as well as being a key component of biodiversity. Salmon have specific habitat requirements at different life stages and their distribution is therefore strongly influenced by a complex suite of biological and physical controls. Stream hydrodynamics have a strong influence on habitat quality and affect the distribution and density of juvenile salmon. As stream hydrodynamics directly relate to stream flow variability and channel morphology, the effects of hydroclimatic drivers on the spatial and temporal variability of habitat suitability can be assessed. Critical Displacement Velocity (CDV), which describes the velocity at which fish can no longer hold station, is one potential approach for characterising habitat suitability. CDV is obtained using an empirical formula that depends on fish size and stream temperature. By characterising the proportion of a reach below CDV it is possible to assess the suitable area. We demonstrate that a generic analytical approach based on field survey and hydraulic modelling can provide insights on the interactions between flow regime and average suitable area (SA) for juvenile salmon that could be extended to other aquatic species. Analytical functions are used to model the pdf of stream flow p(q) and the relationship between flow and suitable area SA(q). Theoretically these functions can assume any form. Here we used a gamma distribution to model p(q) and a gamma function to model SA(q). Integrating the product of these functions we obtain an analytical expression of SA. Since parameters of p(q) can be estimated from meteorological and flow measurements, they can be used directly to predict the effect of flow regime on SA. We show the utility of the approach with reference to 6 electrofishing sites in a single river system where long term (50 years) data on spatially distributed juvenile salmon densities are available.

Ensemble modeling to predict habitat suitability for a large-scale disturbance specialist

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley; Jeff P. Hollenbeck

2013-01-01

To conserve habitat for disturbance specialist species, ecologists must identify where individuals will likely settle in newly disturbed areas. Habitat suitability models can predict which sites at new disturbances will most likely attract specialists. Without validation data from newly disturbed areas, however, the best approach for maximizing predictive accuracy can...

Landscape habitat suitability index software

Treesearch

William D. Dijak; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Michael A. Larson; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2007-01-01

Habitat suitability index (HSI) models are traditionally used to evaluate habitat quality for wildlife at a local scale. Rarely have such models incorporated spatial relationships of habitat components. We introduce Landscape HSImodels, a new Microsoft Windowst (Microsoft, Redmond, WA)-based program that incorporates local habitat as well as landscape-scale attributes...

Effects of spatial extent on modeled relations between habitat and anadromous salmonid spawning success

Treesearch

Steven F. Railsback; Bret C. Harvey; Jason L. White

2015-01-01

We address the question of spatial extent: how model results depend on the amount and type of space represented. For models of how stream habitat affects fish populations, how do the amount and characteristics of habitat represented in the model affect its results and how well do those results represent the whole stream? Our analysis used inSalmo, an individual-based...

Modeling demographic performance of northern spotted owls relative to forest habitat in Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Gail S.; Glenn, Elizabeth M.; Anthony, Robert G.; Forsman, Eric D.; Reid, Janice A.; Loschl, Peter J.; Ripple, William J.

2004-01-01

Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) are known to be associated with late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest of the United States, but the effects of habitat on their demographic performance are relatively unknown. We developed statistical models relating owl survival and productivity to forest cover types within the Roseburg Study Area in the Oregon Coast Range of Oregon, USA. We further combined these demographic parameters using a Leslie-type matrix to obtain an estimate of habitat fitness potential for each owl territory (n = 94). We used mark–recapture methods to develop models for survival and linear mixed models for productivity. We measured forest composition and landscape patterns at 3 landscape scales centered on nest and activity sites within owl territories using an aerial photo-based map and a Geographic Information System (GIS). We also considered additional covariates such as age, sex, and presence of barred owls (Strix varia), and seasonal climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in our models. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) to rank and compare models. Survival had a quadratic relationship with the amount of late- and mid-seral forests within 1,500 m of nesting centers. Survival also was influenced by the amount of precipitation during the nesting season. Only 16% of the variability in survival was accounted for by our best model, but 85% of this was due to the habitat variable. Reproductive rates fluctuated biennially and were positively related to the amount of edge between late- and mid-seral forests and other habitat classes. Reproductive rates also were influenced by parent age, amount of precipitation during nesting season, and presence of barred owls. Our best model accounted for 84% of the variability in productivity, but only 3% of that was due to the habitat variable. Estimates of habitat fitness potential (which may range from 0 to infinity) for the 94 territories ranged from 0.74 to 1

Predicting locations of rare aquatic species’ habitat with a combination of species-specific and assemblage-based models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Carlson, Douglas M.; Payne-Wynne, Molly L.

2013-01-01

Aim: Rare aquatic species are a substantial component of biodiversity, and their conservation is a major objective of many management plans. However, they are difficult to assess, and their optimal habitats are often poorly known. Methods to effectively predict the likely locations of suitable rare aquatic species habitats are needed. We combine two modelling approaches to predict occurrence and general abundance of several rare fish species. Location: Allegheny watershed of western New York State (USA) Methods: Our method used two empirical neural network modelling approaches (species specific and assemblage based) to predict stream-by-stream occurrence and general abundance of rare darters, based on broad-scale habitat conditions. Species-specific models were developed for longhead darter (Percina macrocephala), spotted darter (Etheostoma maculatum) and variegate darter (Etheostoma variatum) in the Allegheny drainage. An additional model predicted the type of rare darter-containing assemblage expected in each stream reach. Predictions from both models were then combined inclusively and exclusively and compared with additional independent data. Results Example rare darter predictions demonstrate the method's effectiveness. Models performed well (R2 ≥ 0.79), identified where suitable darter habitat was most likely to occur, and predictions matched well to those of collection sites. Additional independent data showed that the most conservative (exclusive) model slightly underestimated the distributions of these rare darters or predictions were displaced by one stream reach, suggesting that new darter habitat types were detected in the later collections. Main conclusions Broad-scale habitat variables can be used to effectively identify rare species' habitats. Combining species-specific and assemblage-based models enhances our ability to make use of the sparse data on rare species and to identify habitat units most likely and least likely to support those species

Fire ecology of the forest habitat types of northern Idaho

Treesearch

Jane Kapler Smith; William C. Fischer

1997-01-01

Provides information on fire ecology in forest habitat and community types occurring in northern Idaho. Identifies fire groups based on presettlement fire regimes and patterns of succession and stand development after fire. Describes forest fuels and suggests considerations for fire management.

A framework for modeling anthropogenic impacts on waterbird habitats: addressing future uncertainty in conservation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matchett, Elliott L.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Young, Charles A.; Purkey, David R.

2015-01-01

The amount and quality of natural resources available for terrestrial and aquatic wildlife habitats are expected to decrease throughout the world in areas that are intensively managed for urban and agricultural uses. Changes in climate and management of increasingly limited water supplies may further impact water resources essential for sustaining habitats. In this report, we document adapting a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) system model for the Central Valley of California. We demonstrate using this adapted model (WEAP-CVwh) to evaluate impacts produced from plausible future scenarios on agricultural and wetland habitats used by waterbirds and other wildlife. Processed output from WEAP-CVwh indicated varying levels of impact caused by projected climate, urbanization, and water supply management in scenarios used to exemplify this approach. Among scenarios, the NCAR-CCSM3 A2 climate projection had a greater impact than the CNRM-CM3 B1 climate projection, whereas expansive urbanization had a greater impact than strategic urbanization, on annual availability of waterbird habitat. Scenarios including extensive rice-idling or substantial instream flow requirements on important water supply sources produced large impacts on annual availability of waterbird habitat. In the year corresponding with the greatest habitat reduction for each scenario, the scenario including instream flow requirements resulted in the greatest decrease in habitats throughout all months of the wintering period relative to other scenarios. This approach provides a new and useful tool for habitat conservation planning in the Central Valley and a model to guide similar research investigations aiming to inform conservation, management, and restoration of important wildlife habitats.

Modeling and simulation of an aquatic habitat for bioregenerative life support research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drayer, Gregorio E.; Howard, Ayanna M.

2014-01-01

Long duration human spaceflight poses challenges for spacecraft autonomy and the regeneration of life support consumables, such as oxygen and water. Bioregenerative life support systems (BLSS), which make use of biological processes to transform biological byproducts back into consumables, have the ability to recycle organic byproducts and are the preferred option for food production. A limitation in BLSS research is in the non-availability of small-scale experimental capacities that may help to better understand the challenges in system closure, integration, and control. Ground-based aquatic habitats are an option for small-scale research relevant to bioregenerative life support systems (BLSS), given that they can operate as self-contained systems enclosing a habitat composed of various species in a single volume of water. The purpose of this paper is to present the modeling and simulation of a reconfigurable aquatic habitat for experiments in regenerative life support automation; it supports the use of aquatic habitats as a small-scale approach to experiments relevant to larger-scale regenerative life support systems. It presents ground-based aquatic habitats as an option for small-scale BLSS research focusing on the process of respiration, and elaborates on the description of biological processes by introducing models of ecophysiological phenomena for consumers and producers: higher plants of the species Bacopa monnieri produce O2 for snails of the genus Pomacea; the snails consume O2 and generate CO2, which is used by the plants in combination with radiant energy to generate O2 through the process of photosynthesis. Feedback controllers are designed to regulate the concentration of dissolved oxygen in the water. This paper expands the description of biological processes by introducing models of ecophysiological phenomena of the organisms involved. The model of the plants includes a description of the rate of CO2 assimilation as a function of irradiance

Evaluating carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat possibilities for a Western Cascades (USA) forest landscape.

PubMed

Kline, Jeffrey D; Harmon, Mark E; Spies, Thomas A; Morzillo, Anita T; Pabst, Robert J; McComb, Brenda C; Schnekenburger, Frank; Olsen, Keith A; Csuti, Blair; Vogeler, Jody C

2016-10-01

Forest policymakers and managers have long sought ways to evaluate the capability of forest landscapes to jointly produce timber, habitat, and other ecosystem services in response to forest management. Currently, carbon is of particular interest as policies for increasing carbon storage on federal lands are being proposed. However, a challenge in joint production analysis of forest management is adequately representing ecological conditions and processes that influence joint production relationships. We used simulation models of vegetation structure, forest sector carbon, and potential wildlife habitat to characterize landscape-level joint production possibilities for carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat for seven wildlife species across a range of forest management regimes. We sought to (1) characterize the general relationships of production possibilities for combinations of carbon storage, timber, and habitat, and (2) identify management variables that most influence joint production relationships. Our 160 000-ha study landscape featured environmental conditions typical of forests in the Western Cascade Mountains of Oregon (USA). Our results indicate that managing forests for carbon storage involves trade-offs among timber harvest and habitat for focal wildlife species, depending on the disturbance interval and utilization intensity followed. Joint production possibilities for wildlife species varied in shape, ranging from competitive to complementary to compound, reflecting niche breadth and habitat component needs of species examined. Managing Pacific Northwest forests to store forest sector carbon can be roughly complementary with habitat for Northern Spotted Owl, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and red tree vole. However, managing forests to increase carbon storage potentially can be competitive with timber production and habitat for Pacific marten, Pileated Woodpecker, and Western Bluebird, depending on the disturbance interval and harvest intensity chosen

Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crall, Alycia W.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Panke, Brendon; Young, Nick; Renz, Mark; Morisette, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale (Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale (Tamarix) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P 2) = 47.42, P < 0.01). From these findings, we conclude that habitat suitability models can be

Analysis of Future Streamflow Regimes under Global Change Scenarios in Central Chile for Ecosystem Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Gironas, J. A.; Vicuna, S.

2015-12-01

Given the critical role of the streamflow regime for ecosystem sustainability, modeling long term effects of climate change and land use change on streamflow is important to predict possible impacts in stream ecosystems. Because flow duration curves are largely used to characterize the streamflow regime and define indices of ecosystem health, they were used to represent and analyze in this study the stream regime in the Maipo River Basin in Central Chile. Water and Environmental Assessment and Planning (WEAP) model and the Plant Growth Model (PGM) were used to simulate water distribution, consumption in rural areas and stream flows on a weekly basis. Historical data (1990-2014), future land use scenarios (2030/2050) and climate change scenarios were included in the process. Historical data show a declining trend in flows mainly by unprecedented climatic conditions, increasing interest among users on future streamflow scenarios. In the future, under an expected decline in water availability coupled with changes in crop water demand, water users will be forced to adapt by changing water allocation rules. Such adaptation actions would in turns affect the streamflow regime. Future scenarios for streamflow regime show dramatic changes in water availability and temporal distribution. Annual weekly mean flows can reduce in 19% in the worst scenario and increase in 3.3% in the best of them, and variability in streamflow increases nearly 90% in all scenarios under evaluation. The occurrence of maximum and minimum monthly flows changes, as June instead of July becomes the driest month, and December instead of January becomes the month with maximum flows. Overall, results show that under future scenarios streamflow is affected and altered by water allocation rules to satisfy water demands, and thus decisions will need to consider the streamflow regime (and habitat) in order to be sustainable.

Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

PubMed

Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

2018-01-01

Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models for assessing biotic resources

Treesearch

John C. Rennie; Joseph D. Clark; James M. Sweeney

2000-01-01

Existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models are evaluated for assessing the biotic resources on Champion International Corporation (CIC) lands with data from a standard and an expanded timber inventory. Forty HSI models for 34 species that occur in the Southern Appalachians have been identified from the literature. All of the variables for 14 models are provided (...

Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia.

PubMed

Froese, Jens G; Smith, Carl S; Durr, Peter A; McAlpine, Clive A; van Klinken, Rieks D

2017-01-01

Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs' resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations.

Modelling seasonal habitat suitability for wide-ranging species: Invasive wild pigs in northern Australia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Invasive wildlife often causes serious damage to the economy and agriculture as well as environmental, human and animal health. Habitat models can fill knowledge gaps about species distributions and assist planning to mitigate impacts. Yet, model accuracy and utility may be compromised by small study areas and limited integration of species ecology or temporal variability. Here we modelled seasonal habitat suitability for wild pigs, a widespread and harmful invader, in northern Australia. We developed a resource-based, spatially-explicit and regional-scale approach using Bayesian networks and spatial pattern suitability analysis. We integrated important ecological factors such as variability in environmental conditions, breeding requirements and home range movements. The habitat model was parameterized during a structured, iterative expert elicitation process and applied to a wet season and a dry season scenario. Model performance and uncertainty was evaluated against independent distributional data sets. Validation results showed that an expert-averaged model accurately predicted empirical wild pig presences in northern Australia for both seasonal scenarios. Model uncertainty was largely associated with different expert assumptions about wild pigs’ resource-seeking home range movements. Habitat suitability varied considerably between seasons, retracting to resource-abundant rainforest, wetland and agricultural refuge areas during the dry season and expanding widely into surrounding grassland floodplains, savanna woodlands and coastal shrubs during the wet season. Overall, our model suggested that suitable wild pig habitat is less widely available in northern Australia than previously thought. Mapped results may be used to quantify impacts, assess risks, justify management investments and target control activities. Our methods are applicable to other wide-ranging species, especially in data-poor situations. PMID:28472113

Modeling potential habitats for alien species Dreissena polymorpha in continental USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mingyang, Li; Yunwei, Ju; Kumar, Sunil; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2008-01-01

The effective measure to minimize the damage of invasive species is to block the potential invasive species to enter into suitable areas. 1864 occurrence points with GPS coordinates and 34 environmental variables from Daymet datasets were gathered, and 4 modeling methods, i.e., Logistic Regression (LR), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP), and maximum entropy method (Maxent), were introduced to generate potential geographic distributions for invasive species Dreissena polymorpha in Continental USA. Then 3 statistical criteria of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC), Pearson correlation (COR) and Kappa value were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models, followed by analyses on major contribution variables. Results showed that in terms of the 3 statistical criteria, the prediction results of the 4 ecological niche models were either excellent or outstanding, in which Maxent outperformed the others in 3 aspects of predicting current distribution habitats, selecting major contribution factors, and quantifying the influence of environmental variables on habitats. Distance to water, elevation, frequency of precipitation and solar radiation were 4 environmental forcing factors. The method suggested in the paper can have some reference meaning for modeling habitats of alien species in China and provide a direction to prevent Mytilopsis sallei on the Chinese coast line.

Evaluation of models and data for assessing whooping crane habitat in the central Platte River, Nebraska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Farmer, Adrian H.; Cade, Brian S.; Terrell, James W.; Henriksen, Jim H.; Runge, Jeffery T.

2005-01-01

The primary objectives of this evaluation were to improve the performance of the Whooping Crane Habitat Suitability model (C4R) used by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) for defining the relationship between river discharge and habitat availability, and to assist the Service in implementing improved model(s) with existing hydraulic files. The C4R habitat model is applied at the scale of individual river cross-sections, but the model outputs are scaledup to larger reaches of the river using a decision support “model” comprised of other data and procedures. Hence, the validity of the habitat model depends at least partially on how its outputs are incorporated into this larger context. For that reason, we also evaluated other procedures including the PHABSIM data files, the FORTRAN computer programs used to implement the model, and other parameters used to simulate the relationship between river flows and the availability of Whooping Crane roosting habitat along more than 100 miles of heterogeneous river channels. An equally important objective of this report was to fully document these related procedures as well as the model and evaluation results so that interested parties could readily understand the technical basis for the Service’s recommendations.

Identifying western yellow-billed cuckoo breeding habitat with a dual modelling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Matthew J.; Hatten, James R.; Holmes, Jennifer A.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2017-01-01

The western population of the yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus) was recently listed as threatened under the federal Endangered Species Act. Yellow-billed cuckoo conservation efforts require the identification of features and area requirements associated with high quality, riparian forest habitat at spatial scales that range from nest microhabitat to landscape, as well as lower-suitability areas that can be enhanced or restored. Spatially explicit models inform conservation efforts by increasing ecological understanding of a target species, especially at landscape scales. Previous yellow-billed cuckoo modelling efforts derived plant-community maps from aerial photography, an expensive and oftentimes inconsistent approach. Satellite models can remotely map vegetation features (e.g., vegetation density, heterogeneity in vegetation density or structure) across large areas with near perfect repeatability, but they usually cannot identify plant communities. We used aerial photos and satellite imagery, and a hierarchical spatial scale approach, to identify yellow-billed cuckoo breeding habitat along the Lower Colorado River and its tributaries. Aerial-photo and satellite models identified several key features associated with yellow-billed cuckoo breeding locations: (1) a 4.5 ha core area of dense cottonwood-willow vegetation, (2) a large native, heterogeneously dense forest (72 ha) around the core area, and (3) moderately rough topography. The odds of yellow-billed cuckoo occurrence decreased rapidly as the amount of tamarisk cover increased or when cottonwood-willow vegetation was limited. We achieved model accuracies of 75–80% in the project area the following year after updating the imagery and location data. The two model types had very similar probability maps, largely predicting the same areas as high quality habitat. While each model provided unique information, a dual-modelling approach provided a more complete picture of yellow-billed cuckoo habitat

Transition between Functional Regimes in an Integrate-And-Fire Network Model of the Thalamus

PubMed Central

Barardi, Alessandro; Mazzoni, Alberto

2016-01-01

The thalamus is a key brain element in the processing of sensory information. During the sleep and awake states, this brain area is characterized by the presence of two distinct dynamical regimes: in the sleep state activity is dominated by spindle oscillations (7 − 15 Hz) weakly affected by external stimuli, while in the awake state the activity is primarily driven by external stimuli. Here we develop a simple and computationally efficient model of the thalamus that exhibits two dynamical regimes with different information-processing capabilities, and study the transition between them. The network model includes glutamatergic thalamocortical (TC) relay neurons and GABAergic reticular (RE) neurons described by adaptive integrate-and-fire models in which spikes are induced by either depolarization or hyperpolarization rebound. We found a range of connectivity conditions under which the thalamic network composed by these neurons displays the two aforementioned dynamical regimes. Our results show that TC-RE loops generate spindle-like oscillations and that a minimum level of clustering (i.e. local connectivity density) in the RE-RE connections is necessary for the coexistence of the two regimes. We also observe that the transition between the two regimes occurs when the external excitatory input on TC neurons (mimicking sensory stimulation) is large enough to cause a significant fraction of them to switch from hyperpolarization-rebound-driven firing to depolarization-driven firing. Overall, our model gives a novel and clear description of the role that the two types of neurons and their connectivity play in the dynamical regimes observed in the thalamus, and in the transition between them. These results pave the way for the development of efficient models of the transmission of sensory information from periphery to cortex. PMID:27598260

Differences in aquatic habitat quality as an impact of one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic model simulated flow variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjankar, R. M.; Sohrabi, M.; Tonina, D.; McKean, J. A.

2013-12-01

Aquatic habitat models utilize flow variables which may be predicted with one-dimensional (1D) or two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models to simulate aquatic habitat quality. Studies focusing on the effects of hydrodynamic model dimensionality on predicted aquatic habitat quality are limited. Here we present the analysis of the impact of flow variables predicted with 1D and 2D hydrodynamic models on simulated spatial distribution of habitat quality and Weighted Usable Area (WUA) for fall-spawning Chinook salmon. Our study focuses on three river systems located in central Idaho (USA), which are a straight and pool-riffle reach (South Fork Boise River), small pool-riffle sinuous streams in a large meadow (Bear Valley Creek) and a steep-confined plane-bed stream with occasional deep forced pools (Deadwood River). We consider low and high flows in simple and complex morphologic reaches. Results show that 1D and 2D modeling approaches have effects on both the spatial distribution of the habitat and WUA for both discharge scenarios, but we did not find noticeable differences between complex and simple reaches. In general, the differences in WUA were small, but depended on stream type. Nevertheless, spatially distributed habitat quality difference is considerable in all streams. The steep-confined plane bed stream had larger differences between aquatic habitat quality defined with 1D and 2D flow models compared to results for streams with well defined macro-topographies, such as pool-riffle bed forms. KEY WORDS: one- and two-dimensional hydrodynamic models, habitat modeling, weighted usable area (WUA), hydraulic habitat suitability, high and low discharges, simple and complex reaches

Evaluation of a habitat capability model for nongame birds in the Black Hills, South Dakota

Treesearch

Todd R. Mills; Mark A. Rumble; Lester D. Flake

1996-01-01

Habitat models, used to predict consequences of land management decisions on wildlife, can have considerable economic effect on management decisions. The Black Hills National Forest uses such a habitat capability model (HABCAP), but its accuracy is largely unknown. We tested this model’s predictive accuracy for nongame birds in 13 vegetative structural stages of...

Effects of Pine and Hardwood Basal Areas After Uneven-Aged Silvicultural Treatments on Wildlife Habitat

Treesearch

Darren A. Miller; Bruce D. Leopold; L. Mike Conner; Michael G. Shelton

1999-01-01

Uneven-aged management (UEAM) is becoming increasingly popular in the southeastern United States. However, effects of UEAM on wildlife habitat have not been adequately documented. We examined response of habitat within stands of varying levels of pine and hardwood basal area under an uneven-aged managegement regime in southern Mississippi. Summer and winter trends in...

Habitat models to predict wetland bird occupancy influenced by scale, anthropogenic disturbance, and imperfect detection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glisson, Wesley J.; Conway, Courtney J.; Nadeau, Christopher P.; Borgmann, Kathi L.

2017-01-01

Understanding species–habitat relationships for endangered species is critical for their conservation. However, many studies have limited value for conservation because they fail to account for habitat associations at multiple spatial scales, anthropogenic variables, and imperfect detection. We addressed these three limitations by developing models for an endangered wetland bird, Yuma Ridgway's rail (Rallus obsoletus yumanensis), that examined how the spatial scale of environmental variables, inclusion of anthropogenic disturbance variables, and accounting for imperfect detection in validation data influenced model performance. These models identified associations between environmental variables and occupancy. We used bird survey and spatial environmental data at 2473 locations throughout the species' U.S. range to create and validate occupancy models and produce predictive maps of occupancy. We compared habitat-based models at three spatial scales (100, 224, and 500 m radii buffers) with and without anthropogenic disturbance variables using validation data adjusted for imperfect detection and an unadjusted validation dataset that ignored imperfect detection. The inclusion of anthropogenic disturbance variables improved the performance of habitat models at all three spatial scales, and the 224-m-scale model performed best. All models exhibited greater predictive ability when imperfect detection was incorporated into validation data. Yuma Ridgway's rail occupancy was negatively associated with ephemeral and slow-moving riverine features and high-intensity anthropogenic development, and positively associated with emergent vegetation, agriculture, and low-intensity development. Our modeling approach accounts for common limitations in modeling species–habitat relationships and creating predictive maps of occupancy probability and, therefore, provides a useful framework for other species.

Multi-criteria Decision Analysis to Model Ixodes ricinus Habitat Suitability.

PubMed

Rousseau, Raphaël; McGrath, Guy; McMahon, Barry J; Vanwambeke, Sophie O

2017-09-01

Tick-borne diseases present a major threat to both human and livestock health throughout Europe. The risk of infection is directly related to the presence of its vector. Thereby it is important to know their distribution, which is strongly associated with environmental factors: the presence and availability of a suitable habitat, of a suitable climate and of hosts. The present study models the habitat suitability for Ixodes ricinus in Ireland, where data on tick distribution are scarce. Tick habitat suitability was estimated at a coarse scale (10 km) with a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method according to four different scenarios (depending on the variables used and on the weights granted to each of them). The western part of Ireland and the Wicklow mountains in the East were estimated to be the most suitable areas for I. ricinus in the island. There was a good level of agreement between results from the MCDA and recorded tick presence. The different scenarios did not affect the spatial outputs substantially. The current study suggests that tick habitat suitability can be mapped accurately at a coarse scale in a data-scarce context using knowledge-based methods. It can serve as a guideline for future countrywide sampling that would help to determine local risk of tick presence and refining knowledge on tick habitat suitability in Ireland.

HABSEED: a Simple Spatially Explicit Meta-Populations Model Using Remote Sensing Derived Habitat Quality Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heumann, B. W.; Guichard, F.; Seaquist, J. W.

2005-05-01

The HABSEED model uses remote sensing derived NPP as a surrogate for habitat quality as the driving mechanism for population growth and local seed dispersal. The model has been applied to the Sahel region of Africa. Results show that the functional response of plants to habitat quality alters population distribution. Plants more tolerant of medium quality habitat have greater distributions to the North while plants requiring only the best habitat are limited to the South. For all functional response types, increased seed production results in diminishing returns. Functional response types have been related to life history tradeoffs and r-K strategies based on the results. Results are compared to remote sensing derived vegetation land cover.

Deep Strong Coupling Regime of the Jaynes-Cummings Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casanova, J.; Romero, G.; Lizuain, I.; García-Ripoll, J. J.; Solano, E.

2010-12-01

We study the quantum dynamics of a two-level system interacting with a quantized harmonic oscillator in the deep strong coupling regime (DSC) of the Jaynes-Cummings model, that is, when the coupling strength g is comparable or larger than the oscillator frequency ω (g/ω≳1). In this case, the rotating-wave approximation cannot be applied or treated perturbatively in general. We propose an intuitive and predictive physical frame to describe the DSC regime where photon number wave packets bounce back and forth along parity chains of the Hilbert space, while producing collapse and revivals of the initial population. We exemplify our physical frame with numerical and analytical considerations in the qubit population, photon statistics, and Wigner phase space.

Multiscale sagebrush rangeland habitat modeling in southwest Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Meyer, Debra K.; Coan, Michael J.; Bowen, Zachary H.

2009-01-01

Sagebrush-steppe ecosystems in North America have experienced dramatic elimination and degradation since European settlement. As a result, sagebrush-steppe dependent species have experienced drastic range contractions and population declines. Coordinated ecosystem-wide research, integrated with monitoring and management activities, would improve the ability to maintain existing sagebrush habitats. However, current data only identify resource availability locally, with rigorous spatial tools and models that accurately model and map sagebrush habitats over large areas still unavailable. Here we report on an effort to produce a rigorous large-area sagebrush-habitat classification and inventory with statistically validated products and estimates of precision in the State of Wyoming. This research employs a combination of significant new tools, including (1) modeling sagebrush rangeland as a series of independent continuous field components that can be combined and customized by any user at multiple spatial scales; (2) collecting ground-measured plot data on 2.4-meter imagery in the same season the satellite imagery is acquired; (3) effective modeling of ground-measured data on 2.4-meter imagery to maximize subsequent extrapolation; (4) acquiring multiple seasons (spring, summer, and fall) of an additional two spatial scales of imagery (30 meter and 56 meter) for optimal large-area modeling; (5) using regression tree classification technology that optimizes data mining of multiple image dates, ratios, and bands with ancillary data to extrapolate ground training data to coarser resolution sensors; and (6) employing rigorous accuracy assessment of model predictions to enable users to understand the inherent uncertainties. First-phase results modeled eight rangeland components (four primary targets and four secondary targets) as continuous field predictions. The primary targets included percent bare ground, percent herbaceousness, percent shrub, and percent litter. The

Quantifying stream thermal regimes at management-pertinent scales: combining thermal infrared and stationary stream temperature data in a novel modeling framework.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vatland, Shane J.; Gresswell, Robert E.; Poole, Geoffrey C.

2015-01-01

Accurately quantifying stream thermal regimes can be challenging because stream temperatures are often spatially and temporally heterogeneous. In this study, we present a novel modeling framework that combines stream temperature data sets that are continuous in either space or time. Specifically, we merged the fine spatial resolution of thermal infrared (TIR) imagery with hourly data from 10 stationary temperature loggers in a 100 km portion of the Big Hole River, MT, USA. This combination allowed us to estimate summer thermal conditions at a relatively fine spatial resolution (every 100 m of stream length) over a large extent of stream (100 km of stream) during during the warmest part of the summer. Rigorous evaluation, including internal validation, external validation with spatially continuous instream temperature measurements collected from a Langrangian frame of reference, and sensitivity analyses, suggests the model was capable of accurately estimating longitudinal patterns in summer stream temperatures for this system Results revealed considerable spatial and temporal heterogeneity in summer stream temperatures and highlighted the value of assessing thermal regimes at relatively fine spatial and temporal scales. Preserving spatial and temporal variability and structure in abiotic stream data provides a critical foundation for understanding the dynamic, multiscale habitat needs of mobile stream organisms. Similarly, enhanced understanding of spatial and temporal variation in dynamic water quality attributes, including temporal sequence and spatial arrangement, can guide strategic placement of monitoring equipment that will subsequently capture variation in environmental conditions directly pertinent to research and management objectives.

Assessing three fish species ecological status in Colorado River, Grand Canyon based on physical habitat and population models.

PubMed

Yao, Weiwei; Chen, Yuansheng

2018-04-01

Colorado River is a unique ecosystem and provides important ecological services such as habitat for fish species as well as water power energy supplies. River management for this ecosystem requires assessment and decision support tools for fish which involves protecting, restoring as well as forecasting of future conditions. In this paper, a habitat and population model was developed and used to determine the levels of fish habitat suitability and population density in Colorado River between Lees Ferry and Lake Mead. The short term target fish populations are also predicted based on native fish recovery strategy. This model has been developed by combining hydrodynamics, heat transfer and sediment transport models with a habitat suitability index model and then coupling with habitat model into life stage population model. The fish were divided into four life stages according to the fish length. Three most abundant and typical native and non-native fish were selected as target species, which are rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and flannelmouth sucker (Catostomus latipinnis). Flow velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrates were used as the suitability indicators in habitat model and overall suitability index (OSI) as well as weight usable area (WUA) was used as an indicator in population model. A comparison was made between simulated fish population alteration and surveyed fish number fluctuation during 2000 to 2009. The application of this habitat and population model indicates that this model can be accurate present habitat situation and targets fish population dynamics of in the study areas. The analysis also indicates the flannelmouth sucker population will steadily increase while the rainbow trout will decrease based on the native fish recovery scheme. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Fuels planning: science synthesis and integration; environmental consequences fact sheet 15: The Wildlife Habitat Response Model

Treesearch

David Pilliod

2005-01-01

The Wildlife Habitat Response Model (WHRM) is a Web-based computer tool for evaluating the potential effects of fuel-reduction projects on terrestrial wildlife habitats. It uses species-habitat associations in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), dry-type Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), lodgepole pine (Pinus...

ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGIC DISTURBANCE REGIMES IN STREAMS OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

EPA Science Inventory

Streamflow variability is an important component of physical disturbance in streams, and is likely to be a major organizing feature of habitat for stream fishes. The disturbance regime in streams is frequently described by the variability in streamflow from both floods and prolo...

Using habitat suitability models to target invasive plant species surveys.

PubMed

Crall, Alycia W; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Panke, Brendon; Young, Nick; Renz, Mark; Morisette, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

Managers need new tools for detecting the movement and spread of nonnative, invasive species. Habitat suitability models are a popular tool for mapping the potential distribution of current invaders, but the ability of these models to prioritize monitoring efforts has not been tested in the field. We tested the utility of an iterative sampling design (i.e., models based on field observations used to guide subsequent field data collection to improve the model), hypothesizing that model performance would increase when new data were gathered from targeted sampling using criteria based on the initial model results. We also tested the ability of habitat suitability models to predict the spread of invasive species, hypothesizing that models would accurately predict occurrences in the field, and that the use of targeted sampling would detect more species with less sampling effort than a nontargeted approach. We tested these hypotheses on two species at the state scale (Centaurea stoebe and Pastinaca sativa) in Wisconsin (USA), and one genus at the regional scale (Tamarix) in the western United States. These initial data were merged with environmental data at 30-m2 resolution for Wisconsin and 1-km2 resolution for the western United States to produce our first iteration models. We stratified these initial models to target field sampling and compared our models and success at detecting our species of interest to other surveys being conducted during the same field season (i.e., nontargeted sampling). Although more data did not always improve our models based on correct classification rate (CCR), sensitivity, specificity, kappa, or area under the curve (AUC), our models generated from targeted sampling data always performed better than models generated from nontargeted data. For Wisconsin species, the model described actual locations in the field fairly well (kappa = 0.51, 0.19, P < 0.01), and targeted sampling did detect more species than nontargeted sampling with less

Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2002-01-01

The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes in order to provide cloud data sets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different case are presented: Jan 26,1999, an easterly regime case, and Feb 23,1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line and is initialized with a standard cold pool. The sensitivity to mid-level sounding moisture and wind shear will also be shown. The Feb 23 case is less-organized with only transient lines and is initialized with either warm bubbles or prescribed surface fluxes. Heating profiles, rainfall statistics and storm characteristics are compared and validated for the two cases against observations collected during the experiment.

Impacts of varying light regimes on phycobiliproteins of Nostoc sp. HKAR-2 and Nostoc sp. HKAR-11 isolated from diverse habitats.

PubMed

Kannaujiya, Vinod K; Sinha, Rajeshwar P

2015-11-01

The adaptability of cyanobacteria in diverse habitats is an important factor to withstand harsh conditions. In the present investigation, the impacts of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; 400-700 nm), ultraviolet-B (UV-B; 280-315 nm), and PAR + UV-B radiations on two cyanobacteria viz., Nostoc sp. HKAR-2 and Nostoc sp. HKAR-11 inhabiting diverse habitats such as hot springs and rice fields, respectively, were studied. Cell viability was about 14 % in Nostoc sp. HKAR-2 and <10 % in Nostoc sp. HKAR-11 after 48 h of UV-B exposure. PAR had negligible negative impact on the survival of both cyanobacteria. The continuous exposure of UV-B and PAR + UV-B showed rapid uncoupling, bleaching, fragmentation, and degradation in both phycocyanin (C-PC) and phycoerythrin (C-PE) subunits of phycobiliproteins (PBPs). Remarkable bleaching effect of C-PE and C-PC was not only observed with UV-B or PAR + UV-B radiation, but longer period (24-48 h) of exposure with PAR alone also showed noticeable negative impact. The C-PE and C-PC subunits of the rice field isolate Nostoc sp. HKAR-11 were severely damaged in comparison to the hot spring isolate Nostoc sp. HKAR-2 with rapid wavelength shifting toward shorter wavelengths denoting the bleaching of both the accessory light harvesting pigments. The results indicate that PBPs of the hot spring isolate Nostoc sp. HKAR-2 were more stable under various light regimes in comparison to the rice field isolate Nostoc sp. HKAR-11 that could serve as a good source of valuable pigments to be used in various biomedical and biotechnological applications.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Carvalheiro, Luísa G; Aguirre-Gutiérrez, Jesús; Bos, Merijn; de Groot, G Arjen; Kleijn, David; Potts, Simon G; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart; Scheper, Jeroen; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

2015-10-01

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs' usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and

Forestry effects on vertebrate species habitats in the riparian zone

Treesearch

Mariko Yamasaki

2000-01-01

Three factors influence a coarse-filter approach to the providing wildlife habitat in riparian areas in the northeastern United States. These are: 1) degree of riparian-upland forest connectivity; 2) water regime; and 3) key vegetation structures present in riparian areas that are important to terrestrial vertebrate species.

N-mix for fish: estimating riverine salmonid habitat selection via N-mixture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward C.; De Juilio, Kyle; Petros, Paul; Pinnix, William D.; Rupert, Derek L.

2018-01-01

Models that formulate mathematical linkages between fish use and habitat characteristics are applied for many purposes. For riverine fish, these linkages are often cast as resource selection functions with variables including depth and velocity of water and distance to nearest cover. Ecologists are now recognizing the role that detection plays in observing organisms, and failure to account for imperfect detection can lead to spurious inference. Herein, we present a flexible N-mixture model to associate habitat characteristics with the abundance of riverine salmonids that simultaneously estimates detection probability. Our formulation has the added benefits of accounting for demographics variation and can generate probabilistic statements regarding intensity of habitat use. In addition to the conceptual benefits, model application to data from the Trinity River, California, yields interesting results. Detection was estimated to vary among surveyors, but there was little spatial or temporal variation. Additionally, a weaker effect of water depth on resource selection is estimated than that reported by previous studies not accounting for detection probability. N-mixture models show great promise for applications to riverine resource selection.

Refuge habitats for fishes during seasonal drying in an intermittent stream: movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, S.W.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2011-01-01

Drought and summer drying can be important disturbance events in many small streams leading to intermittent or isolated habitats. We examined what habitats act as refuges for fishes during summer drying, hypothesizing that pools would act as refuge habitats. We predicted that during drying fish would show directional movement into pools from riffle habitats, survival rates would be greater in pools than in riffles, and fish abundance would increase in pool habitats. We examined movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species, bigeye shiner (Notropis boops), highland stoneroller (Campostoma spadiceum) and creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), during seasonal stream drying in an Ozark stream using a closed robust multi-strata mark-recapture sampling. Population parameters were estimated using plausible models within program MARK, where a priori models are ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion. Creek chub showed directional movement into pools and increased survival and abundance in pools during drying. Highland stonerollers showed strong directional movement into pools and abundance increased in pools during drying, but survival rates were not significantly greater in pools than riffles. Bigeye shiners showed high movement rates during drying, but the movement was non-directional, and survival rates were greater in riffles than pools. Therefore, creek chub supported our hypothesis and pools appear to act as refuge habitats for this species, whereas highland stonerollers partly supported the hypothesis and bigeye shiners did not support the pool refuge hypothesis. Refuge habitats during drying are species dependent. An urgent need exists to further understand refuge habitats in streams given projected changes in climate and continued alteration of hydrological regimes.

Feeding habitat quality and behavioral trade-offs in chimpanzees: a case for species distribution models.

PubMed

Foerster, Steffen; Zhong, Ying; Pintea, Lilian; Murray, Carson M; Wilson, Michael L; Mjungu, Deus C; Pusey, Anne E

2016-01-01

The distribution and abundance of food resources are among the most important factors that influence animal behavioral strategies. Yet, spatial variation in feeding habitat quality is often difficult to assess with traditional methods that rely on extrapolation from plot survey data or remote sensing. Here, we show that maximum entropy species distribution modeling can be used to successfully predict small-scale variation in the distribution of 24 important plant food species for chimpanzees at Gombe National Park, Tanzania. We combined model predictions with behavioral observations to quantify feeding habitat quality as the cumulative dietary proportion of the species predicted to occur in a given location. This measure exhibited considerable spatial heterogeneity with elevation and latitude, both within and across main habitat types. We used model results to assess individual variation in habitat selection among adult chimpanzees during a 10-year period, testing predictions about trade-offs between foraging and reproductive effort. We found that nonswollen females selected the highest-quality habitats compared with swollen females or males, in line with predictions based on their energetic needs. Swollen females appeared to compromise feeding in favor of mating opportunities, suggesting that females rather than males change their ranging patterns in search of mates. Males generally occupied feeding habitats of lower quality, which may exacerbate energetic challenges of aggression and territory defense. Finally, we documented an increase in feeding habitat quality with community residence time in both sexes during the dry season, suggesting an influence of familiarity on foraging decisions in a highly heterogeneous landscape.

Environmental Flows: Evaluating Long-Term Baselines for Hydrological Regime Change in the Southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deines, A. M.; Morrison, A. M.; Menzie, C.

2016-12-01

The wide variety of ecosystem services associated with running fresh waters are dependent on an assortment of flow conditions including timing and duration of seasonal floods as well as intermittent flows, such as storm peaks. Modern methods of assessing environmental flows consider hydrological regime change by comparing actual or simulated baseline flow conditions against putatively altered regime flows. These calculated flow changes are used as inputs to models of ecosystem responses such as for fish populations, inundated habitat area, or nutrient supplies. However, common and recommended tools and software used to make flow comparisons between putative regimes lack robust mechanisms for evaluating the significance of hydrological regime change in the context of long-term (multiple decades, centuries, or greater) trends, such as climatic conditions, or the facility to determine the existence and causes of regime changes when no obvious discontinuity exists, such as the construction of a dam. As such, environmental flow decisions based on short (recent) baseline records or baseline records assumed to represent stable hydrological conditions may lead to inefficient water use and ecosystem services distribution. Here we examine long-term patterns in discharge, the frequency and severity of regional droughts, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to better understand the occurrence and causes of hydrological regime change in rivers in the Southern United States. For each river we ask: 1) Has hydrological regime change occurred? 2) To what degree is observed regime change associated with regional climatic drivers? 3) How might environmental flows suggested by current methods (e.g. the USGS Hydroecological Integrity Assessment or the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software) compare with flows derived by additional consideration of long-term drivers of hydrological change? We discuss the different temporal scales through which climate can influence a

INTERACTIVE HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS FOR STREAM FISHES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC HIGHLANDS

EPA Science Inventory

Models that predict the presence of stream fish species based on habitat characteristics can be useful in watershed management. We developed such models for each of fourteen Mid-Atlantic Highlands stream fish species/groups.

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Using expert opinion to evaluate a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Richard S. Holthausen; Michael J. Wisdom; John Pierce; Daniel K. Edwards; Mary M. Rowland

1994-01-01

We used expert opinion to evaluate the predictive reliability of a habitat effectiveness model for elk in western Oregon and Washington. Twenty-five experts in elk ecology were asked to rate habitat quality for 16 example landscapes. Rankings and ratings of 21 experts were significantly correlated with model output. Expert opinion and model predictions differed for 4...

Contrast of degraded and restored stream habitat using an individual-based salmon model

Treesearch

S. F. Railsback; M. Gard; Bret Harvey; Jason White; J.K.H. Zimmerman

2013-01-01

Stream habitat restoration projects are popular, but can be expensive and difficult to evaluate. We describe inSALMO, an individual-based model designed to predict habitat effects on freshwater life stages (spawning through juvenile out-migration) of salmon. We applied inSALMO to Clear Creek, California, simulating the production of total and large (>5 cm FL)...

Negativity as the entanglement measure to probe the Kondo regime in the spin-chain Kondo model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayat, Abolfazl; Sodano, Pasquale; Bose, Sougato

2010-02-01

We study the entanglement of an impurity at one end of a spin chain with a block of spins using negativity as a true measure of entanglement to characterize the unique features of the gapless Kondo regime in the spin-chain Kondo model. For this spin chain in the Kondo regime we determine—with a true entanglement measure—the spatial extent of the Kondo screening cloud, we propose an ansatz for its ground state and demonstrate that the impurity spin is indeed maximally entangled with the cloud. To better evidence the peculiarities of the Kondo regime, we carry a parallel analysis of the entanglement properties of the Kondo spin-chain model in the gapped dimerized regime. Our study shows how a genuine entanglement measure stemming from quantum information theory can fully characterize also nonperturbative regimes accessible to certain condensed matter systems.

Modeling Snow Regime in Cores of Small Planetary Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boukaré, C. E.; Ricard, Y. R.; Parmentier, E.; Parman, S. W.

2017-12-01

Observations of present day magnetic field on small planetary bodies such as Ganymede or Mercury challenge our understanding of planetary dynamo. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the origin of magnetic fields. Among the proposed scenarios, one family of models relies on snow regime. Snow regime is supported by experimental studies showing that melting curves can first intersect adiabats in regions where the solidifying phase is not gravitationaly stable. First solids should thus remelt during their ascent or descent. The effect of the snow zone on magnetic field generation remains an open question. Could magnetic field be generated in the snow zone? If not, what is the depth extent of the snow zone? How remelting in the snow zone drive compositional convection in the liquid layer? Several authors have tackled this question with 1D-spherical models. Zhang and Schubert, 2012 model sinking of the dense phase as internally heated convection. However, to our knowledge, there is no study on the convection structure associated with sedimentation and phase change at planetary scale. We extend the numerical model developped in [Boukare et al., 2017] to model snow dynamics in 2D Cartesian geometry. We build a general approach for modeling double diffusive convection coupled with solid-liquid phase change and phase separation. We identify several aspects that may govern the convection structure of the solidifying system: viscosity contrast between the snow zone and the liquid layer, crystal size, rate of melting/solidification and partitioning of light components during phase change.

An incremental economic analysis of establishing early successional habitat for biodiversity

Treesearch

Slayton W. Hazard-Daniel; Patrick Hiesl; Susan C. Loeb; Thomas J. Straka

2017-01-01

Early successional habitat (ESH) is an important component of natural landscapes and is crucial to maintaining biodiversity. ESH also impacts endangered species. The extent of forest disturbances resulting in ESH has been diminishing, and foresters have developed timber management regimes using standard silvicultural techniques that...

Simultaneous modeling of habitat suitability, occupancy, and relative abundance: African elephants in Zimbabwe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Julien; Chamaille-Jammes, Simon; Nichols, James D.; Fritz, Herve; Hines, James E.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.; Bailey, Larissa L.

2010-01-01

The recent development of statistical models such as dynamic site occupancy models provides the opportunity to address fairly complex management and conservation problems with relatively simple models. However, surprisingly few empirical studies have simultaneously modeled habitat suitability and occupancy status of organisms over large landscapes for management purposes. Joint modeling of these components is particularly important in the context of management of wild populations, as it provides a more coherent framework to investigate the population dynamics of organisms in space and time for the application of management decision tools. We applied such an approach to the study of water hole use by African elephants in Hwange National Park, Zimbabwe. Here we show how such methodology may be implemented and derive estimates of annual transition probabilities among three dry-season states for water holes: (1) unsuitable state (dry water holes with no elephants); (2) suitable state (water hole with water) with low abundance of elephants; and (3) suitable state with high abundance of elephants. We found that annual rainfall and the number of neighboring water holes influenced the transition probabilities among these three states. Because of an increase in elephant densities in the park during the study period, we also found that transition probabilities from low abundance to high abundance states increased over time. The application of the joint habitat–occupancy models provides a coherent framework to examine how habitat suitability and factors that affect habitat suitability influence the distribution and abundance of organisms. We discuss how these simple models can further be used to apply structured decision-making tools in order to derive decisions that are optimal relative to specified management objectives. The modeling framework presented in this paper should be applicable to a wide range of existing data sets and should help to address important ecological

Virtual Construction of Space Habitats: Connecting Building Information Models (BIM) and SysML

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Polit-Casillas, Raul; Howe, A. Scott

2013-01-01

Current trends in design, construction and management of complex projects make use of Building Information Models (BIM) connecting different types of data to geometrical models. This information model allow different types of analysis beyond pure graphical representations. Space habitats, regardless their size, are also complex systems that require the synchronization of many types of information and disciplines beyond mass, volume, power or other basic volumetric parameters. For this, the state-of-the-art model based systems engineering languages and processes - for instance SysML - represent a solid way to tackle this problem from a programmatic point of view. Nevertheless integrating this with a powerful geometrical architectural design tool with BIM capabilities could represent a change in the workflow and paradigm of space habitats design applicable to other aerospace complex systems. This paper shows some general findings and overall conclusions based on the ongoing research to create a design protocol and method that practically connects a systems engineering approach with a BIM architectural and engineering design as a complete Model Based Engineering approach. Therefore, one hypothetical example is created and followed during the design process. In order to make it possible this research also tackles the application of IFC categories and parameters in the aerospace field starting with the application upon the space habitats design as way to understand the information flow between disciplines and tools. By building virtual space habitats we can potentially improve in the near future the way more complex designs are developed from very little detail from concept to manufacturing.

Modeling to Support the Development of Habitat Targets for Piping Plovers on the Missouri River

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buenau, Kate E.

2015-05-05

Report on modeling and analyses done in support of developing quantative sandbar habitat targets for piping plovers, including assessment of reference, historical, dams present but not operated, and habitat construction calibrated to meet population viability targets.

Modeling viscosity and diffusion of plasma mixtures across coupling regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnault, Philippe

2014-10-01

Viscosity and diffusion of plasma for pure elements and multicomponent mixtures are modeled from the high-temperature low-density weakly coupled regime to the low-temperature high-density strongly coupled regime. Thanks to an atom in jellium modeling, the effect of electron screening on the ion-ion interaction is incorporated through a self-consistent definition of the ionization. This defines an effective One Component Plasma, or an effective Binary Ionic Mixture, that is representative of the strength of the interaction. For the viscosity and the interdiffusion of mixtures, approximate kinetic expressions are supplemented by mixing laws applied to the excess viscosity and self-diffusion of pure elements. The comparisons with classical and quantum molecular dynamics results reveal deviations in the range 20--40% on average with almost no predictions further than a factor of 2 over many decades of variation. Applications in the inertial confinement fusion context could help in predicting the growth of hydrodynamic instabilities.

Analog quantum simulation of the Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime.

PubMed

Braumüller, Jochen; Marthaler, Michael; Schneider, Andre; Stehli, Alexander; Rotzinger, Hannes; Weides, Martin; Ustinov, Alexey V

2017-10-03

The quantum Rabi model describes the fundamental mechanism of light-matter interaction. It consists of a two-level atom or qubit coupled to a quantized harmonic mode via a transversal interaction. In the weak coupling regime, it reduces to the well-known Jaynes-Cummings model by applying a rotating wave approximation. The rotating wave approximation breaks down in the ultra-strong coupling regime, where the effective coupling strength g is comparable to the energy ω of the bosonic mode, and remarkable features in the system dynamics are revealed. Here we demonstrate an analog quantum simulation of an effective quantum Rabi model in the ultra-strong coupling regime, achieving a relative coupling ratio of g/ω ~ 0.6. The quantum hardware of the simulator is a superconducting circuit embedded in a cQED setup. We observe fast and periodic quantum state collapses and revivals of the initial qubit state, being the most distinct signature of the synthesized model.An analog quantum simulation scheme has been explored with a quantum hardware based on a superconducting circuit. Here the authors investigate the time evolution of the quantum Rabi model at ultra-strong coupling conditions, which is synthesized by slowing down the system dynamics in an effective frame.

Evaluating habitat for black-footed ferrets: Revision of an existing model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biggins, Dean E.; Lockhart, J. Michael; Godbey, Jerry L.

2006-01-01

Black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes) are highly dependent on prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) as prey, and prairie dog colonies are the only known habitats that sustain black-footed ferret populations. An existing model used extensively for evaluating black-footed ferret reintroduction habitat defined complexes by interconnecting colonies with 7-km line segments. Although the 7-km complex remains a useful construct, we propose additional, smaller-scale evaluations that consider 1.5-km subcomplexes. The original model estimated the carrying capacity of complexes based on energy requirements of ferrets and density estimates of their prairie dog prey. Recent data have supported earlier contentions of intraspecific competition and intrasexual territorial behavior in ferrets. We suggest a revised model that retains the fixed linear relationship of the existing model when prairie dog densities are <18/ha and uses a curvilinear relationship that reflects increasing effects of ferret territoriality when there are 18–42 prairie dogs per hectare. We discuss possible effects of colony size and shape, interacting with territoriality, as justification for the exclusion of territorial influences if a prairie dog colony supports only a single female ferret. We also present data to support continued use of active prairie dog burrow densities as indices suitable for broad-scale estimates of prairie dog density. Calculation of percent of complexes that are occupied by prairie dog colonies was recommended as part of the original habitat evaluation process. That attribute has been largely ignored, resulting in rating anomalies.

Using dynamic Brownian bridge movement modelling to measure temporal patterns of habitat selection.

PubMed

Byrne, Michael E; Clint McCoy, J; Hinton, Joseph W; Chamberlain, Michael J; Collier, Bret A

2014-09-01

Accurately describing animal space use is vital to understanding how wildlife use habitat. Improvements in GPS technology continue to facilitate collection of telemetry data at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Application of the recently introduced dynamic Brownian bridge movement model (dBBMM) to such data is promising as the method explicitly incorporates the behavioural heterogeneity of a movement path into the estimated utilization distribution (UD). Utilization distributions defining space use are normally estimated for time-scales ranging from weeks to months, obscuring much of the fine-scale information available from high-volume GPS data sets. By accounting for movement heterogeneity, the dBBMM provides a rigorous, behaviourally based estimate of space use between each set of relocations. Focusing on UDs generated between individual sets of locations allows us to quantify fine-scale circadian variation in habitat use. We used the dBBMM to estimate UDs bounding individual time steps for three terrestrial species with different life histories to illustrate how the method can be used to identify fine-scale variations in habitat use. We also demonstrate how dBBMMs can be used to characterize circadian patterns of habitat selection and link fine-scale patterns of habitat use to behaviour. We observed circadian patterns of habitat use that varied seasonally for a white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and coyote (Canis latrans). We found seasonal patterns in selection by the white-tailed deer and were able to link use of conifer forests and agricultural fields to behavioural state of the coyote. Additionally, we were able to quantify the date in which a Rio Grande wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo intermedia) initiated laying as well as when during the day, she was most likely to visit the nest site to deposit eggs. The ability to quantify circadian patterns of habitat use may have important implications for research and management of wildlife

Seral stage classification and monitoring model for big sagebrush/western wheatgrass/blue grama habitat

Treesearch

Lakhdar Benkobi; Daniel W. Uresk

1996-01-01

An ecological classification model for seral stages was developed for big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) shrub steppe habitat in Thunder Basin National Grassland, Wyoming. Four seral stages (early to late succession) were defined in this habitat type. Ecological seral stages were quantitatively identified with an estimated 92% level of accuracy...

Selecting compact habitat reserves for species with differential habitat size needs

Treesearch

Vladimir Marianov; Charles ReVelle; Stephanie Snyder

2008-01-01

We propose a model for the design of protected habitat reserves, which maximizes the number of species represented at least once in a limited set of reserved sites or parcels. Most models for reserve design do not differentiate eligible habitat sites by their size. Also, they assume that protection is guaranteed through the selection of one site for any species, not...

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamacher, K.

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers—modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property—the time horizon of production planning—is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function—thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Dynamical regimes due to technological change in a microeconomical model of production.

PubMed

Hamacher, K

2012-09-01

We develop a microeconomical model to investigate the impact of technological change onto production decisions of suppliers-modeling an effective feedback mechanism of the market. An important property-the time horizon of production planning-is related to the Kolmogorov entropy of the one-dimensional maps describing price dynamics. We simulate this price dynamics in an ensemble representing the whole macroeconomy. We show how this model can be used to support ongoing research in economic growth and incorporate the obtained microeconomic findings into the discussion about appropriate macroeconomic quantities such as the production function-thus effectively underpinning macroeconomics with microeconomical dynamics. From there we can show that the model exhibits different dynamical regimes (suggesting "phase transitions") with respect to an order parameter. The non-linear feedback under technological change was found to be the crucial mechanism. The implications of the obtained regimes are finally discussed.

Application and partial validation of a habitat model for moose in the Lake Superior region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, A.W.; Terrell, J.W.; Mangus, W.L.; Lindquist, E.L.

1991-01-01

A modified version of the dormant-season portion of a Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model developed for assessing moose (Alces alces) habitat in the Lake Superior Region was incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) for 490 km2 of Minnesota's Superior National Forest. Moose locations (n=235) were plotted during aerial surveys conducted in December 1988 and January 1990-1991. Dormant-season forage and cover quality for 1,000-m, 500-m, and 200-m radii plots around random points and moose locations were compared using U.S. Forest Service stand examination data. Cover quality indices were lower than forage quality indices within all plots. The median value for the average cover quality index was greater (P=0.003) within 200-m plots around cow moose locations than for plots around random points for the most severe winter of the study. The proportion of highest-quality winter cover, such as mixed stands dominated by mid-age class white spruce (Picea glauca) and balsam fir (Abies balsanea), was greater within 500-m and 200-m plots around cow moose than within similar plots around random points during the two most severe winters. These results indicate that suboptimum ratings of winter habitat quality used in the GIS for dormant-season forage >100 m from cover, as suggested in the original HSI model, are reasonable. Integrating the habitat model with forest stand data using a GIS permitted analysis of moose habitat within a relatively large geographic area. Simulation of habitat quality indicated a potential shortage of late-winter cover in the study area. The effects of forest management actions on moose habitat quality can be simulated without collecting additional data.

Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.; Johnson, James H.

2011-01-01

Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and

Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year-Round Passive Acoustic Data from the Southern California Bight

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

be used for habitat modeling include sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH), chlorophyll a concentration, and primary production...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year...predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight, to facilitate Navy’s operational

Analysing how plants in coastal wetlands respond to varying tidal regimes throughout their life cycles.

PubMed

Xie, Tian; Cui, Baoshan; Li, Shanze

2017-10-15

Important to conserve plant species in coastal wetlands throughout their life cycle. All life stages in these habitats are exposed to varying tidal cycles. It is necessary to investigate all life stages as to how they respond to varying tidal regimes. We examine three wetlands containing populations of an endangered halophyte species, each subjected to different tidal regimes: (1). wetlands completely closed to tidal cycles; (2). wetlands directly exposed to tidal cycles (3). wetlands exposed to a partially closed tidal regime. Our results showed that the most threatened stage varied between wetlands subjected to these varying tidal regimes. We hypothesis that populations of this species have adapted to these different tidal regimes. Such information is useful in developing management options for coastal wetlands and modifying future barriers restricting tidal flushing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting spatial and temporal distribution of Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans) in Biscayne Bay through habitat suitability modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernal, Nicholas A.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Schofield, Pamela J.; Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen

2014-01-01

Invasive species may exhibit higher levels of growth and reproduction when environmental conditions are most suitable, and thus their effects on native fauna may be intensified. Understanding potential impacts of these species, especially in the nascent stages of a biological invasion, requires critical information concerning spatial and temporal distributions of habitat suitability. Using empirically supported environmental variables (e.g., temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, rugosity, and benthic substrate), our models predicted habitat suitability for the invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans) in Biscayne Bay, Florida. The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as a platform for the modeling process allowed us to quantify correlations between temporal (seasonal) fluctuations in the above variables and the spatial distribution of five discrete habitat quality classes, whose ranges are supported by statistical deviations from the apparent best conditions described in prior studies. Analysis of the resulting models revealed little fluctuation in spatial extent of the five habitat classes on a monthly basis. Class 5, which represented the area with environmental variables closest to the best conditions for lionfish, occupied approximately one-third of Biscayne Bay, with subsequent habitats declining in area. A key finding from this study was that habitat suitability increased eastward from the coastline, where higher quality habitats were adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean and displayed marine levels of ambient water quality. Corroboration of the models with sightings from the USGS-NAS database appeared to support our findings by nesting 79 % of values within habitat class 5; however, field testing (i.e., lionfish surveys) is necessary to confirm the relationship between habitat classes and lionfish distribution.

Using a coupled eco-hydrodynamic model to predict habitat for target species following dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tomsic, C.A.; Granata, T.C.; Murphy, R.P.; Livchak, C.J.

2007-01-01

A habitat suitability index (HSI) model was developed for a water quality sensitive fish (Greater Redhorse) and macroinvertebrate (Plecoptera) species to determine the restoration success of the St. John Dam removal for the Sandusky River (Ohio). An ArcGIS?? model was created for pre- and post-dam removal scenarios. Inputs to the HSI model consist of substrate distributions from river surveys, and water level and velocity time series, outputs from a hydrodynamic model. The ArcGIS?? model predicted habitat suitability indices at 45 river cross-sections in the hydrodynamic model. The model was programmed to produce polygon layers, using graphical user interfaces that were displayed in the ArcGIS?? environment. The results of the model clearly show an increase of habitat suitability from pre- to post-dam removal periods and in the former reservoir. The change in suitability of the model is attributed mostly to the change in depth in the river following the dam removal for both the fish and invertebrate species. The results of the invertebrate model followed the same positive trend as species enumerations from the river basin. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Refuge habitats for fishes during seasonal drying in an intermittent stream: Movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodges, S.W.; Magoulick, D.D.

2011-01-01

Drought and summer drying can be important disturbance events in many small streams leading to intermittent or isolated habitats. We examined what habitats act as refuges for fishes during summer drying, hypothesizing that pools would act as refuge habitats. We predicted that during drying fish would show directional movement into pools from riffle habitats, survival rates would be greater in pools than in riffles, and fish abundance would increase in pool habitats. We examined movement, survival and abundance of three minnow species, bigeye shiner (Notropis boops), highland stoneroller (Campostoma spadiceum) and creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus), during seasonal stream drying in an Ozark stream using a closed robust multi-strata mark-recapture sampling. Population parameters were estimated using plausible models within program MARK, where a priori models are ranked using Akaike's Information Criterion. Creek chub showed directional movement into pools and increased survival and abundance in pools during drying. Highland stonerollers showed strong directional movement into pools and abundance increased in pools during drying, but survival rates were not significantly greater in pools than riffles. Bigeye shiners showed high movement rates during drying, but the movement was non-directional, and survival rates were greater in riffles than pools. Therefore, creek chub supported our hypothesis and pools appear to act as refuge habitats for this species, whereas highland stonerollers partly supported the hypothesis and bigeye shiners did not support the pool refuge hypothesis. Refuge habitats during drying are species dependent. An urgent need exists to further understand refuge habitats in streams given projected changes in climate and continued alteration of hydrological regimes. ?? 2011 Springer Basel AG (outside the USA).

Gravel addition as a habitat restoration technique for tailwaters

Treesearch

Ryan McManamay; D. Orth; Charles Dolloff; Mark Cantrell

2010-01-01

We assessed the efficacy of passive gravel addition at forming catostomid spawning habitat under various flow regimes in the Cheoah River, a high-gradient tailwater river in North Carolina. The purpose was to provide a case study that included recommendations for future applications. A total of 76.3 m3 (162 tons) of washed gravel (10-50 mm) was passively dumped down...

Topographic models for predicting malaria vector breeding habitats: potential tools for vector control managers.

PubMed

Nmor, Jephtha C; Sunahara, Toshihiko; Goto, Kensuke; Futami, Kyoko; Sonye, George; Akweywa, Peter; Dida, Gabriel; Minakawa, Noboru

2013-01-16

Identification of malaria vector breeding sites can enhance control activities. Although associations between malaria vector breeding sites and topography are well recognized, practical models that predict breeding sites from topographic information are lacking. We used topographic variables derived from remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) to model the breeding sites of malaria vectors. We further compared the predictive strength of two different DEMs and evaluated the predictability of various habitat types inhabited by Anopheles larvae. Using GIS techniques, topographic variables were extracted from two DEMs: 1) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission 3 (SRTM3, 90-m resolution) and 2) the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer Global DEM (ASTER, 30-m resolution). We used data on breeding sites from an extensive field survey conducted on an island in western Kenya in 2006. Topographic variables were extracted for 826 breeding sites and for 4520 negative points that were randomly assigned. Logistic regression modelling was applied to characterize topographic features of the malaria vector breeding sites and predict their locations. Model accuracy was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). All topographic variables derived from both DEMs were significantly correlated with breeding habitats except for the aspect of SRTM. The magnitude and direction of correlation for each variable were similar in the two DEMs. Multivariate models for SRTM and ASTER showed similar levels of fit indicated by Akaike information criterion (3959.3 and 3972.7, respectively), though the former was slightly better than the latter. The accuracy of prediction indicated by AUC was also similar in SRTM (0.758) and ASTER (0.755) in the training site. In the testing site, both SRTM and ASTER models showed higher AUC in the testing sites than in the training site (0.829 and 0.799, respectively). The predictability of habitat types

Models for mapping potential habitat at landscape scales: an example using northern spotted owls.

Treesearch

William C. McComb; Michael T. McGrath; Thomas A. Spies; David Vesely

2002-01-01

We are assessing the potential for current and alternative policies in the Oregon Coast Range to affect habitat capability for a suite of forest resources. We provide an example of a spatially explicit habitat capability model for northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina)to illustrate the approach we are taking to assess potential changes...

Habitat suitability index model for brook trout in streams of the Southern Blue Ridge Province: surrogate variables, model evaluation, and suggested improvements

Treesearch

Christoper J. Schmitt; A. Dennis Lemly; Parley V. Winger

1993-01-01

Data from several sources were collated and analyzed by correlation, regression, and principal components analysis to define surrrogate variables for use in the brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) habitat suitability index (HSI) model, and to evaluate the applicability of the model for assessing habitat in high elevation streams of the southern Blue Ridge Province (...

Macroturbulence in Very High Resolution Atmospheric Models: Evidence for Two Scaling Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straus, D. M.

2010-12-01

The macro-turbulent properties of the atmosphere's circulation are examined in a number of very high resolution seasonal simulations using the global Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at 7-km horizontal resolution (40 levels), and the forecast model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at T1279 and T2047 spectral resolutions (90-levels). These simulations were carried out as part of an extraordinary collaborative project between the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the University of Tokyo, the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), ECMWF, and the National Institute of Computational Sciences (NICS) The goals of the analysis are to document the rotational and divergence kinetic energy spectral characteristics, to shed light on the different scaling regimes obtained and the role of non-hydrostatic dynamics, and to asses the effects of the smallest scales on the cascades of energy. Simulations with all the models show some evidence of two scaling regimes (power law with steep slope, and a distinctly more shallow slope at smaller scales) for both rotational and divergent kinetic energy. The strength of the evidence for the two-regimes, as well as the wavenumber ranges in which they occur, do differ between models. Analysis of different time scale contributions to the spectra lend insight into the energy transfer mechanism. The implications for dynamical theories of turbulent energy exchange are discussed, as well as difference in approach to compared with multiplicative cascade theories.

Predictive Models of the Hydrological Regime of Unregulated Streams in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.; Parker, John T.C.

2009-01-01

Three statistical models were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality to improve the predictability of flow occurrence in unregulated streams throughout Arizona. The models can be used to predict the probabilities of the hydrological regime being one of four categories developed by this investigation: perennial, which has streamflow year-round; nearly perennial, which has streamflow 90 to 99.9 percent of the year; weakly perennial, which has streamflow 80 to 90 percent of the year; or nonperennial, which has streamflow less than 80 percent of the year. The models were developed to assist the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality in selecting sites for participation in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. One model was developed for each of the three hydrologic provinces in Arizona - the Plateau Uplands, the Central Highlands, and the Basin and Range Lowlands. The models for predicting the hydrological regime were calibrated using statistical methods and explanatory variables of discharge, drainage-area, altitude, and location data for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and a climate index derived from annual precipitation data. Models were calibrated on the basis of streamflow data from 46 stations for the Plateau Uplands province, 82 stations for the Central Highlands province, and 90 stations for the Basin and Range Lowlands province. The models were developed using classification trees that facilitated the analysis of mixed numeric and factor variables. In all three models, a threshold stream discharge was the initial variable to be considered within the classification tree and was the single most important explanatory variable. If a stream discharge value at a station was below the threshold, then the station record was determined as being nonperennial. If, however, the stream discharge was above the threshold

Predicting the effects of proposed Mississippi River diversions on oyster habitat quality; application of an oyster habitat suitability index model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soniat, Thomas M.; Conzelmann, Craig P.; Byrd, Jason D.; Roszell, Dustin P.; Bridevaux, Joshua L.; Suir, Kevin J.; Colley, Susan B.

2013-01-01

In an attempt to decelerate the rate of coastal erosion and wetland loss, and protect human communities, the state of Louisiana developed its Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. The master plan proposes a combination of restoration efforts including shoreline protection, marsh creation, sediment diversions, and ridge, barrier island, and hydrological restoration. Coastal restoration projects, particularly the large-scale diversions of fresh water from the Mississippi River, needed to supply sediment to an eroding coast potentially impact oyster populations and oyster habitat. An oyster habitat suitability index model is presented that evaluates the effects of a proposed sediment and freshwater diversion into Lower Breton Sound. Voluminous freshwater, needed to suspend and broadly distribute river sediment, will push optimal salinities for oysters seaward and beyond many of the existing reefs. Implementation and operation of the Lower Breton Sound diversion structure as proposed would render about 6,173 ha of hard bottom immediately east of the Mississippi River unsuitable for the sustained cultivation of oysters. If historical harvests are to be maintained in this region, a massive and unprecedented effort to relocate private leases and restore oyster bottoms would be required. Habitat suitability index model results indicate that the appropriate location for such efforts are to the east and north of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet.

Wake meandering of a model wind turbine operating in two different regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foti, Daniel; Yang, Xiaolei; Campagnolo, Filippo; Maniaci, David; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

2018-05-01

The flow behind a model wind turbine under two different turbine operating regimes (region 2 for turbine operating at optimal condition with the maximum power coefficient and 1.4-deg pitch angle and region 3 for turbine operating at suboptimal condition with a lower power coefficient and 7-deg pitch angle) is investigated using wind tunnel experiments and numerical experiments using large-eddy simulation (LES) with actuator surface models for turbine blades and nacelle. Measurements from the model wind turbine experiment reveal that the power coefficient and turbine wake are affected by the operating regime. Simulations with and without a nacelle model are carried out for each operating condition to study the influence of the operating regime and nacelle on the formation of the hub vortex and wake meandering. Statistics and energy spectra of the simulated wakes are in good agreement with the measurements. For simulations with a nacelle model, the mean flow field is composed of an outer wake, caused by energy extraction by turbine blades, and an inner wake directly behind the nacelle, while for the simulations without a nacelle model, the central region of the wake is occupied by a jet. The simulations with the nacelle model reveal an unstable helical hub vortex expanding outward toward the outer wake, while the simulations without a nacelle model show a stable and columnar hub vortex. Because of the different interactions of the inner region of the wake with the outer region of the wake, a region with higher turbulence intensity is observed in the tip shear layer for the simulation with a nacelle model. The hub vortex for the turbine operating in region 3 remains in a tight helical spiral and intercepts the outer wake a few diameters further downstream than for the turbine operating in region 2. Wake meandering, a low-frequency large-scale motion of the wake, commences in the region of high turbulence intensity for all simulations with and without a nacelle model

A theoretical model of strong and moderate El Niño regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Ken; Karamperidou, Christina; Dewitte, Boris

2018-02-01

The existence of two regimes for El Niño (EN) events, moderate and strong, has been previously shown in the GFDL CM2.1 climate model and also suggested in observations. The two regimes have been proposed to originate from the nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, associated with a threshold in sea surface temperature (T_c ) that needs to be exceeded for deep atmospheric convection to occur in the eastern Pacific. However, although the recent 2015-16 EN event provides a new data point consistent with the sparse strong EN regime, it is not enough to statistically reject the null hypothesis of a unimodal distribution based on observations alone. Nevertheless, we consider the possibility suggestive enough to explore it with a simple theoretical model based on the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback. In this study, we implemented this nonlinear mechanism in the recharge-discharge (RD) ENSO model and show that it is sufficient to produce the two EN regimes, i.e. a bimodal distribution in peak surface temperature (T) during EN events. The only modification introduced to the original RD model is that the net damping is suppressed when T exceeds T_c , resulting in a weak nonlinearity in the system. Due to the damping, the model is globally stable and it requires stochastic forcing to maintain the variability. The sustained low-frequency component of the stochastic forcing plays a key role for the onset of strong EN events (i.e. for T>T_c ), at least as important as the precursor positive heat content anomaly (h). High-frequency forcing helps some EN events to exceed T_c , increasing the number of strong events, but the rectification effect is small and the overall number of EN events is little affected by this forcing. Using the Fokker-Planck equation, we show how the bimodal probability distribution of EN events arises from the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback and also propose that the increase in the net feedback with increasing T is a necessary condition for bimodality in the RD

Flow regimes and mechanistic modeling of critical heat flux under subcooled flow boiling conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Corre, Jean-Marie

Thermal performance of heat flux controlled boiling heat exchangers are usually limited by the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) above which the heat transfer degrades quickly, possibly leading to heater overheating and destruction. In an effort to better understand the phenomena, a literature review of CHF experimental visualizations under subcooled flow boiling conditions was performed and systematically analyzed. Three major types of CHF flow regimes were identified (bubbly, vapor clot and slug flow regime) and a CHF flow regime map was developed, based on a dimensional analysis of the phenomena and available data. It was found that for similar geometric characteristics and pressure, a Weber number (We)/thermodynamic quality (x) map can be used to predict the CHF flow regime. Based on the experimental observations and the review of the available CHF mechanistic models under subcooled flow boiling conditions, hypothetical CHF mechanisms were selected for each CHF flow regime, all based on a concept of wall dry spot overheating, rewetting prevention and subsequent dry spot spreading. It is postulated that a high local wall superheat occurs locally in a dry area of the heated wall, due to a cyclical event inherent to the considered CHF two-phase flow regime, preventing rewetting (Leidenfrost effect). The selected modeling concept has the potential to span the CHF conditions from highly subcooled bubbly flow to early stage of annular flow. A numerical model using a two-dimensional transient thermal analysis of the heater undergoing nucleation was developed to mechanistically predict CHF in the case of a bubbly flow regime. In this type of CHF two-phase flow regime, the high local wall superheat occurs underneath a nucleating bubble at the time of bubble departure. The model simulates the spatial and temporal heater temperature variations during nucleation at the wall, accounting for the stochastic nature of the boiling phenomena. The model has also the potential to evaluate

Direct numerical simulations and spectral modeling of premixed turbulent combustion in the flamelet regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulitsky, Mark

1997-11-01

A model for premixed turbulent combustion in the so called 'flamelet regime' has been developed. This regime, often referred to as the fast chemistry or high Damkohler number regime, is characterized by turbulent length and time scales that are much larger and slower than the flame thickness and reaction time scales respectively. There is currently great interest in trying to better understand flamelet combustion, as many practical devices (i.e., spark ignition engines, gas turbines, etc.) have been found to operate in this regime. Before a model could be developed however, it was first necessary to ascertain which part of the turbulence (either the nearly Gaussian background turbulence or the tube-like coherent vortical structures) was responsible for the multi-scale wrinkling of the flame surface. This question motivated a DNS study of flames passing through both structure containing the structure free isotropic turbulence. After it was determined that the presence of the coherent structures was merely ancillary in terms of increasing the surface area of the flame, a spectral model based on the EDQNM (Eddy Damped Quasi Normal Markovian) theory of turbulence was developed. This theory implicitly assumes that joint distributions of the fluctuating velocity components are nearly Gaussian, and as only spectra are transported in this model, there is no direct information about any of the coherent structures which might be embedded within the flow field. One of the advantages of this model is that both the Reynolds number and the ratio of the rms fluctuating velocity to the laminar flame speed can be varied independently. To test the model's ability to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the governing field equation a DNS study was performed and both steady-state and transient single- and two-point statistics were compared. Finally, the model was compared to two-point experimental measurements taken from a lean premixed methane-air flame.

Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Suitability for Rift Valley Fever Occurrence in Tanzania: An Ecological Niche Modelling Approach

PubMed Central

Sindato, Calvin; Stevens, Kim B.; Karimuribo, Esron D.; Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Paweska, Janusz T.; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.

2016-01-01

Background Despite the long history of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Tanzania, extent of its suitable habitat in the country remains unclear. In this study we investigated potential effects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, soil type, livestock density, rainfall pattern, proximity to wild animals, protected areas and forest on the habitat suitability for RVF occurrence in Tanzania. Materials and Methods Presence-only records of 193 RVF outbreak locations from 1930 to 2007 together with potential predictor variables were used to model and map the suitable habitats for RVF occurrence using ecological niche modelling. Ground-truthing of the model outputs was conducted by comparing the levels of RVF virus specific antibodies in cattle, sheep and goats sampled from locations in Tanzania that presented different predicted habitat suitability values. Principal Findings Habitat suitability values for RVF occurrence were higher in the northern and central-eastern regions of Tanzania than the rest of the regions in the country. Soil type and precipitation of the wettest quarter contributed equally to habitat suitability (32.4% each), followed by livestock density (25.9%) and rainfall pattern (9.3%). Ground-truthing of model outputs revealed that the odds of an animal being seropositive for RVFV when sampled from areas predicted to be most suitable for RVF occurrence were twice the odds of an animal sampled from areas least suitable for RVF occurrence (95% CI: 1.43, 2.76, p < 0.001). Conclusion/Significance The regions in the northern and central-eastern Tanzania were more suitable for RVF occurrence than the rest of the regions in the country. The modelled suitable habitat is characterised by impermeable soils, moderate precipitation in the wettest quarter, high livestock density and a bimodal rainfall pattern. The findings of this study should provide guidance for the design of appropriate RVF surveillance, prevention and control strategies which target areas with

Where to Combat Shrub Encroachment in Alpine Timberline Ecosystems: Combining Remotely-Sensed Vegetation Information with Species Habitat Modelling

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Patthey, Patrick; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2016-01-01

In many cultural landscapes, the abandonment of traditional grazing leads to encroachment of pastures by woody plants, which reduces habitat heterogeneity and impacts biodiversity typical of semi-open habitats. We developed a framework of mutually interacting spatial models to locate areas where shrub encroachment in Alpine treeline ecosystems deteriorates vulnerable species’ habitat, using black grouse Tetrao tetrix (L.) in the Swiss Alps as a study model. Combining field observations and remote-sensing information we 1) identified and located the six predominant treeline vegetation types; 2) modelled current black grouse breeding habitat as a function thereof so as to derive optimal habitat profiles; 3) simulated from these profiles the theoretical spatial extension of breeding habitat when assuming optimal vegetation conditions throughout; and used the discrepancy between (2) and (3) to 4) locate major aggregations of homogeneous shrub vegetation in otherwise suitable breeding habitat as priority sites for habitat restoration. All six vegetation types (alpine pasture, coniferous forest, Alnus viridis (Chaix), Rhododendron-dominated, Juniperus-dominated and mixed heathland) were predicted with high accuracy (AUC >0.9). Breeding black grouse preferred a heterogeneous mosaic of vegetation types, with none exceeding 50% cover. While 15% of the timberline belt currently offered suitable breeding habitat, twice that fraction (29%) would potentially be suitable when assuming optimal shrub and ground vegetation conditions throughout the study area. Yet, only 10% of this difference was attributed to habitat deterioration by shrub-encroachment of dense heathland (all types 5.2%) and Alnus viridis (4.8%). The presented method provides both a general, large-scale assessment of areas covered by dense shrub vegetation as well as specific target values and priority areas for habitat restoration related to a selected target organism. This facilitates optimizing the spatial

Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Paul G. Rodewald

2011-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) to evaluate trees' potential responses to climate change are essential for developing appropriate forest management strategies. However, there is a great need to better understand these models' limitations and evaluate their uncertainties. We have previously developed statistical models of suitable habitat, based on both...

Presentation--HABITAT DISTRIBUTION MODELS FOR 37 VERTEBRATE SPECIES IN THE MOJAVE DESERT ECOREGION OF NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND UTAH

EPA Science Inventory

Thirty-seven terrestrial vertebrate species in the Clark County Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan (MSHCP) were previously modeled through the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP), using a deductive approach. To increase the applicability of such habitat models ...

Wintering habitat model for the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Gowan, Timothy A; Ortega-Ortiz, Joel G

2014-01-01

The coastal waters off the southeastern United States (SEUS) are a primary wintering ground for the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), used by calving females along with other adult and juvenile whales. Management actions implemented in this area for the recovery of the right whale population rely on accurate habitat characterization and the ability to predict whale distribution over time. We developed a temporally dynamic habitat model to predict wintering right whale distribution in the SEUS using a generalized additive model framework and aerial survey data from 2003/2004 through 2012/2013. We built upon previous habitat models for right whales in the SEUS and include data from new aerial surveys that extend the spatial coverage of the analysis, particularly in the northern portion of this wintering ground. We summarized whale sightings, survey effort corrected for probability of whale detection, and environmental data at a semimonthly resolution. Consistent with previous studies, sea surface temperature (SST), water depth, and survey year were significant predictors of right whale relative abundance. Additionally, distance to shore, distance to the 22°C SST isotherm, and an interaction between time of year and latitude (to account for the latitudinal migration of whales) were also selected in the analysis presented here. Predictions from the model revealed that the location of preferred habitat differs within and between years in correspondence with variation in environmental conditions. Although cow-calf pairs were rarely sighted in the company of other whales, there was minimal evidence that the preferred habitat of cow-calf pairs was different than that of whale groups without calves at the scale of this study. The results of this updated habitat model can be used to inform management decisions for a migratory species in a dynamic oceanic environment.

Modeling the Evolution of Riparian Woodlands Facing Climate Change in Three European Rivers with Contrasting Flow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rivaes, Rui P.; Rodríguez-González, Patricia M.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pinheiro, António N.; Politti, Emilio; Egger, Gregory; García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Felix

2014-01-01

Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change. PMID:25330151

A spatial model of potential jaguar habitat in Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatten, J.R.; Averill-Murray, A.; van Pelt, W.E.

2005-01-01

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is an endangered species that occasionally visits the southwestern United States from Mexico. The number of jaguar sightings per decade has declined over the last 100 years in Arizona, USA, raising conservation concerns for the species at a local and national level. In 1997, state, federal, and local governments with land-management responsibilities agreed to characterize and identify potential jaguar habitat in Arizona and New Mexico. Specifically, the objectives of our analysis were 2-fold: (1) characterize potential jaguar habitat in Arizona from historic sighting records and (2) create a statewide habitat suitability map. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to characterize potential jaguar habitat by overlaying historic jaguar sightings (25) on landscape and habitat features believed important (e.g., vegetation biomes and series, elevation, terrain ruggedness, proximity to perennial or intermittent water sources, human density). The amount of Arizona (%) identified as potential jaguar habitat ranged from 21% to 30% depending on the input variables. Most jaguar sightings were in scrub grasslands between 1,220 and 1,829-m elevation in southeastern Arizona, in intermediately to extremely rugged terrain, and within 10 km of a water source. Conservation efforts should focus on protecting the most suitable jaguar habitat in southeastern Arizona (i.e., Santa Cruz, Pima, Cochise, Pinal, Graham counties), travel corridors within and outside Arizona, and jaguar habitat in the Sierra Madres of Sonora, Mexico.

Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

PubMed

Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

2015-02-01

Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Identification of landscape features influencing gene flow: How useful are habitat selection models?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roffler, Gretchen H.; Schwartz, Michael K.; Pilgrim, Kristy L.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, Kevin; Adams, Layne G.; Luikart, Gordon

2016-01-01

Understanding how dispersal patterns are influenced by landscape heterogeneity is critical for modeling species connectivity. Resource selection function (RSF) models are increasingly used in landscape genetics approaches. However, because the ecological factors that drive habitat selection may be different from those influencing dispersal and gene flow, it is important to consider explicit assumptions and spatial scales of measurement. We calculated pairwise genetic distance among 301 Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in southcentral Alaska using an intensive noninvasive sampling effort and 15 microsatellite loci. We used multiple regression of distance matrices to assess the correlation of pairwise genetic distance and landscape resistance derived from an RSF, and combinations of landscape features hypothesized to influence dispersal. Dall's sheep gene flow was positively correlated with steep slopes, moderate peak normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), and open land cover. Whereas RSF covariates were significant in predicting genetic distance, the RSF model itself was not significantly correlated with Dall's sheep gene flow, suggesting that certain habitat features important during summer (rugged terrain, mid-range elevation) were not influential to effective dispersal. This work underscores that consideration of both habitat selection and landscape genetics models may be useful in developing management strategies to both meet the immediate survival of a species and allow for long-term genetic connectivity.

HABITAT DISTRIBUTION MODELS FOR 37 VERTEBRATE SPECIES IN T HE MOJAVE DESERT ECOREGION OF NEVADA, ARIZONA, AND UTAH

EPA Science Inventory

Thirty-seven covered species in the Clark County Multi-Species Habitat Conservation Plan (MSHCP) were previously modeled through the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP), using a deductive approach. To increase the applicability of such habitat models in the region ...

Changes in Salmon Spawning Habitat Distributions Following Rapid and Gradual Channel Adjustments in the Cedar River, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, R. K.; Wissmar, R. C.; Berge, H.; Foley, S.

2005-05-01

Anthropogenic controls on rivers such as dams, hardened banks, and land uses limit the interactions between main river channel and floodplain ecosystems and contribute to decreased habitat diversity. These system controls dampen the frequency and magnitude of natural disturbances that contibute to physical habitat structure and variability. Under natural and altered disturbance regimes river systems are expected to exhibit resiliency. However, in some cases, disturbances cause fluctuations in the trajectory of the mean system state that can have implications for river recovery in the short- and long-term by changing the spatial and temporal dimensions of available habitat relative to specific biological requirements. Historic and contemporary salmon spawning data are analyzed in the context of changing disturbance regimes in the Cedar River, Washington. Historic data are presented for active channel conditions and spawning fish distributions. Contemporary data are presented for an intensively studied reach that received a landslide that deposited approximately 50,000 m3 of sediment in the main channel, temporarily damming the river. Biologically, the spatio-temporal spawning distributions of Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytcha) and sockeye (O. nerka) salmon responded to modifications of physical habitat.

Dynamical patterns and regime shifts in the nonlinear model of soil microorganisms growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaitseva, Maria; Vladimirov, Artem; Winter, Anna-Marie; Vasilyeva, Nadezda

2017-04-01

Dynamical model of soil microorganisms growth and turnover is formulated as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations of reaction-diffusion type. We consider spatial distributions of concentrations of several substrates and microorganisms. Biochemical reactions are modelled by chemical kinetic equations. Transport is modelled by simple linear diffusion for all chemical substances, while for microorganisms we use different transport functions, e.g. some of them can actively move along gradient of substrate concentration, while others cannot move. We solve our model in two dimensions, starting from uniform state with small initial perturbations for various parameters and find parameter range, where small initial perturbations grow and evolve. We search for bifurcation points and critical regime shifts in our model and analyze time-space profile and phase portraits of these solutions approaching critical regime shifts in the system, exploring possibility to detect such shifts in advance. This work is supported by NordForsk, project #81513.

Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

2018-04-01

High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

Measuring and modeling the spatial pattern of understory bamboo across landscapes: Implications for giant panda habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderman, Marc Alan

We examined an approach to classifying understory bamboo, the staple food of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), from remote sensing imagery in the Wolong Nature Reserve, China. We also used these data to estimate the landscape-scale distribution of giant panda habitat, and model the human effects on forest cover and the spatio-temporal dynamics of bamboo and the resulting implications for giant panda habitat. The spatial distribution of understory bamboo was mapped using an artificial neural network and leaf-on remote sensing data. Training on a limited set of ground truth data and using widely available Landsat TM data as input, a non-linear artificial neural network achieved a classification accuracy of 80% despite the presence of co-occurring mid-story and understory vegetation. Using information on the spatial distribution of bamboo in Wolong, we compared the results of giant panda habitat analyses with and without bamboo information. Total amount of habitat decreased by 29--56% and overall habitat patch size decreased by 16--48% after bamboo information was incorporated into the analyses. The decreases in the quantity of panda habitat and increases in habitat fragmentation resulted in decreases of 41--60% in carrying capacity. Using a spatio-temporal model of bamboo dynamics and human activities, we found that local fuelwood collection and household creation will likely reduce secondary habitat relied upon by pandas. Human impacts would likely contribute up to an additional 16% loss of habitat. Furthermore, these impacts primarily occur in the habitat relied upon by giant pandas during past bamboo die-offs. Decreased total area of habitat and increased fragmentation from human activities will likely make giant pandas increasingly sensitive to natural disturbances such as cyclical bamboo die-offs. Our studies suggest that it is necessary to further examine approaches to monitor understory vegetation and incorporate understory information into wildlife

Use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) habitat models to predict breeding birds on the San Pedro River, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

McFarland, Tiffany Marie; van Riper, Charles

2013-01-01

Successful management practices of avian populations depend on understanding relationships between birds and their habitat, especially in rare habitats, such as riparian areas of the desert Southwest. Remote-sensing technology has become popular in habitat modeling, but most of these models focus on single species, leaving their applicability to understanding broader community structure and function largely untested. We investigated the usefulness of two Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) habitat models to model avian abundance and species richness on the upper San Pedro River in southeastern Arizona. Although NDVI was positively correlated with our bird metrics, the amount of explained variation was low. We then investigated the addition of vegetation metrics and other remote-sensing metrics to improve our models. Although both vegetation metrics and remotely sensed metrics increased the power of our models, the overall explained variation was still low, suggesting that general avian community structure may be too complex for NDVI models.

Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

Treesearch

Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

2011-01-01

An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of Spacecraft in the Continuum--Rarefied Transition Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turansky, Craig P.

The state of the art of spacecraft rarefied aerodynamics seldom accounts for detailed rigid-body dynamics. In part because of computational constraints, simpler models based upon the ballistic and drag coefficients are employed. Of particular interest is the continuum-rarefied transition regime of Earth's thermosphere where gas dynamic simulation is difficult yet wherein many spacecraft operate. The feasibility of increasing the fidelity of modeling spacecraft dynamics is explored by coupling rarefied aerodynamics with rigid-body dynamics modeling similar to that traditionally used for aircraft in atmospheric flight. Presented is a framework of analysis and guiding principles which capitalize on the availability of increasing computational methods and resources. Aerodynamic force inputs for modeling spacecraft in two dimensions in a rarefied flow are provided by analytical equations in the free-molecular regime, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo method in the transition regime. The application of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method to this class of problems is examined in detail with a new code specifically designed for engineering-level rarefied aerodynamic analysis. Time-accurate simulations of two distinct geometries in low thermospheric flight and atmospheric entry are performed, demonstrating non-linear dynamics that cannot be predicted using simpler approaches. The results of this straightforward approach to the aero-orbital coupled-field problem highlight the possibilities for future improvements in drag prediction, control system design, and atmospheric science. Furthermore, a number of challenges for future work are identified in the hope of stimulating the development of a new subfield of spacecraft dynamics.

Changing land use and its impact on the habitat suitability for wintering Anseriformes in China's Poyang Lake region.

PubMed

Tang, Xuguang; Li, Hengpeng; Xu, Xibao; Yang, Guishan; Liu, Guihua; Li, Xinyan; Chen, Dongqiang

2016-07-01

As an internationally important wetland for migratory waterbirds, China's Poyang Lake region has experienced substantial changes in land use during the past two decades owing to climate change and anthropogenic disturbances. Recent dam constructions on the Yangtze River and its tributaries for agriculture and hydroelectric power exert strong effects on the hydrological regimes of this lake. However, few studies have investigated how the land-use changes through time affect the habitat suitability for wintering Anseriformes-the largest community in this region. Thus, it is necessary to timely monitor changes in the habitat quality and understand the potential factors that alter it. In this study, three periods (1995, 2005 and 2014) of typical environmental indicators that have direct impacts on foraging and resting for the Anserformes, including proximity to water (density of lakes, rivers and ponds), human disturbances (density of residences and various road networks), preferred land cover types and food availability (NDVI), are integrated to develop a habitat suitability index model for habitat mapping. The results indicate that long-term lake shrinkage in low-water periods led to greatly expanded wetlands in these years, which provided more suitable habitat for migratory waterfowl. The amount of highly suitable habitat in 2014 was nearly twice as much as in 1995. Recent survey data from 1997 to 2013 also revealed an increase in the population size, and confirmed the improvement of habitat suitability in the Poyang Lake region. Spatial analysis revealed that land use changes contributed most to the improved habitat coverage between 1995 and 2014. However, the relative significances of these transformations for highly suitable and moderately suitable habitats are strikingly different. Increases in wetland and paddy field area are the main reasons for explaining these improvements, respectively. The framework model proposed in this study will help governments to

CONSTRUCTING, PERTURBATION ANALYSIIS AND TESTING OF A MULTI-HABITAT PERIODIC MATRIX POPULATION MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

We present a matrix model that explicitly incorporates spatial habitat structure and seasonality and discuss preliminary results from a landscape level experimental test. Ecological risk to populations is often modeled without explicit treatment of spatially or temporally distri...

Habitat Selection Response of Small Pelagic Fish in Different Environments. Two Examples from the Oligotrophic Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Bonanno, Angelo; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Barra, Marco; Basilone, Gualtiero; Machias, Athanassios; Genovese, Simona; Goncharov, Sergey; Popov, Sergey; Rumolo, Paola; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Aronica, Salvatore; Patti, Bernardo; Fontana, Ignazio; Giacalone, Giovanni; Ferreri, Rosalia; Buscaino, Giuseppa; Somarakis, Stylianos; Pyrounaki, Maria-Myrto; Tsoukali, Stavroula; Mazzola, Salvatore

2014-01-01

A number of scientific papers in the last few years singled out the influence of environmental conditions on the spatial distribution of fish species, highlighting the need for the fisheries scientific community to investigate, besides biomass estimates, also the habitat selection of commercially important fish species. The Mediterranean Sea, although generally oligotrophic, is characterized by high habitat variability and represents an ideal study area to investigate the adaptive behavior of small pelagics under different environmental conditions. In this study the habitat selection of European anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus and European sardine Sardina pilchardus is analyzed in two areas of the Mediterranean Sea that largely differentiate in terms of environmental regimes: the Strait of Sicily and the North Aegean Sea. A number of environmental parameters were used to investigate factors influencing anchovy and sardine habitat selection. Acoustic surveys data, collected during the summer period 2002–2010, were used for this purpose. The quotient analysis was used to identify the association between high density values and environmental variables; it was applied to the entire dataset in each area in order to identify similarities or differences in the “mean” spatial behavioral pattern for each species. Principal component analysis was applied to selected environmental variables in order to identify those environmental regimes which drive each of the two ecosystems. The analysis revealed the effect of food availability along with bottom depth selection on the spatial distribution of both species. Furthermore PCA results highlighted that observed selectivity for shallower waters is mainly associated to specific environmental processes that locally increase productivity. The common trends in habitat selection of the two species, as observed in the two regions although they present marked differences in hydrodynamics, seem to be driven by the oligotrophic

Predicting Species Distributions Using Record Centre Data: Multi-Scale Modelling of Habitat Suitability for Bat Roosts.

PubMed

Bellamy, Chloe; Altringham, John

2015-01-01

Conservation increasingly operates at the landscape scale. For this to be effective, we need landscape scale information on species distributions and the environmental factors that underpin them. Species records are becoming increasingly available via data centres and online portals, but they are often patchy and biased. We demonstrate how such data can yield useful habitat suitability models, using bat roost records as an example. We analysed the effects of environmental variables at eight spatial scales (500 m - 6 km) on roost selection by eight bat species (Pipistrellus pipistrellus, P. pygmaeus, Nyctalus noctula, Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii, M. nattereri, M. daubentonii, and Plecotus auritus) using the presence-only modelling software MaxEnt. Modelling was carried out on a selection of 418 data centre roost records from the Lake District National Park, UK. Target group pseudoabsences were selected to reduce the impact of sampling bias. Multi-scale models, combining variables measured at their best performing spatial scales, were used to predict roosting habitat suitability, yielding models with useful predictive abilities. Small areas of deciduous woodland consistently increased roosting habitat suitability, but other habitat associations varied between species and scales. Pipistrellus were positively related to built environments at small scales, and depended on large-scale woodland availability. The other, more specialist, species were highly sensitive to human-altered landscapes, avoiding even small rural towns. The strength of many relationships at large scales suggests that bats are sensitive to habitat modifications far from the roost itself. The fine resolution, large extent maps will aid targeted decision-making by conservationists and planners. We have made available an ArcGIS toolbox that automates the production of multi-scale variables, to facilitate the application of our methods to other taxa and locations. Habitat suitability modelling has the

Habitat preferences of baleen whales in a mid-latitude habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prieto, Rui; Tobeña, Marta; Silva, Mónica A.

2017-07-01

Understanding the dynamics of baleen whale distribution is essential to predict how environmental changes can affect their ecology and, in turn, ecosystem functioning. Recent work showed that mid-latitude habitats along migratory routes may play an important role on the feeding ecology of baleen whales. This study aimed to investigate the function of a mid-latitude habitat for blue (Balaenoptera musculus), fin (Balaenoptera physalus) and sei (Balaenoptera borealis) whales occurring in sympatry during spring and summer months and to what extent their environmental niches overlap. We addressed those questions by developing environmental niche models (ENM) for each species and then making pairwise comparisons of niche overlap and relative habitat patch importance among the three species. ENMs were created using sightings from the Azorean Fisheries Observer Program from May to November, between 2004 and 2009, and a set of 18 predictor environmental variables. We then assessed monthly (April-July) overlap among ENMs using a modified Hellinger's distance metric (I). Results show that the habitat niches of blue and fin whales are strongly influenced by primary productivity and sea surface temperature and are highly dynamic both spatially and temporally due to the oceanography of the region. Niche overlap analyses show that blue and fin whale environmental niches are similar and that the suitable habitats for the two species have high degree of spatial coincidence. These results in combination suggest that this habitat may function as a mid-latitude feeding ground to both species while conditions are adequate. The sei whale model, on the other hand, did not include variables considered to be proxies for prey distribution and little environmental niche overlap was found between this species and the other two. We argue that these results suggest that the region holds little importance as a foraging habitat for the sei whale.

Hydropower Production and Fish Habitat Suitability: Impact and Effectiveness of Environmental Flow Prescriptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceola, Serena; Pugliese, Alessio; Galeati, Giorgio; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

The anthropogenic alteration of the natural flow regime of a river for hydropower production can significantly modify the processes and functions associated with fluvial ecosystems. In order to preserve the fluvial habitat downstream of dams and diversion structures, environmental flows are commonly defined. Such environmental flows are generally computed from empirical methodologies, which are seldom based on site-specific studies, and may not be representative of local ecological and hydraulic conditions. Here we present the results of a quantitative analysis on the effectiveness of two alternative environmental flow scenarios prescribed in Central Italy (time-invariant experimental and empirically-based flow release versus time-variant hydrogeomorphologically-based flow release) and their impact on hydropower production and fish habitat suitability. The latter is examined by means of several models of habitat suitability curve, which is a well-known approach capable of analysing fluvial species preferences as a function of key eco-hydraulic features, such as water depth, flow velocity and river substrate. The results show an evident loss of hydropower production moving from the time-invariant experimental flow release to the hydrogeomorphological one (nearly 20% at the annual scale). Concerning the effects in terms of fish habitat suitability, our outcomes are less obvious, since they are species- and life stage-specific. The proposed analysis, which can be easily adapted to different riparian habitats and hydrological contexts, is a useful tool to guide the derivation of optimal water resource management strategies in order to ensure both hydropower production and fluvial ecosystem protection.

Hydropower Production and Fish Habitat Suitability: Impact and Effectiveness of Environmental Flow Prescriptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellarin, A.; Galeati, G.; Ceola, S.; Pugliese, A.; Ventura, M.; Montanari, A.

2017-12-01

The anthropogenic alteration of the natural flow regime of a river for hydropower production can significantly modify the processes and functions associated with fluvial ecosystems. In order to preserve the fluvial habitat downstream of dams and diversion structures, environmental flows are commonly defined. Such environmental flows are generally computed from empirical methodologies, which are seldom based on site-specific studies, and may not be representative of local ecological and hydraulic conditions. Here we present the results of a quantitative analysis on the effectiveness of two alternative environmental flow scenarios prescribed in Central Italy (time-invariant experimental and empirically-based flow release versus time-variant hydrogeomorphologically-based flow release) and their impact on hydropower production and fish habitat suitability. The latter is examined by means of several models of habitat suitability curve, which is a well-known approach capable of analysing fluvial species preferences as a function of key eco-hydraulic features, such as water depth, flow velocity and river substrate. The results show an evident loss of hydropower production moving from the time-invariant experimental flow release to the hydrogeomorphological one (nearly 20% at the annual scale). Concerning the effects in terms of fish habitat suitability, our outcomes are less obvious, since they are species- and life stage-specific. The proposed analysis, which can be easily adapted to different riparian habitats and hydrological contexts, is a useful tool to guide the derivation of optimal water resource management strategies in order to ensure both hydropower production and fluvial ecosystem protection.

Optimizing habitat protection using demographic models of population viability.

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Brian Cypher; Patrick A. Kelly; Scott Phillips; Hugh P. Possingham; Katherine Ralls; Anthony M. Starfield; P.J. White; Daniel Williams

2002-01-01

Expanding habitat protection is a common tactic for species conservation. When unprotected habitat is privately owned, decisions must be made about which areas to protect by land purchase or conservation easement. To address this problem, we developed an optimization framework for choosing the habitat protection strategy that minimizes the risk of population extinction...

Richards-like two species population dynamics model.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Fabiano; Cabella, Brenno Caetano Troca; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

2014-12-01

The two-species population dynamics model is the simplest paradigm of inter- and intra-species interaction. Here, we present a generalized Lotka-Volterra model with intraspecific competition, which retrieves as particular cases, some well-known models. The generalization parameter is related to the species habitat dimensionality and their interaction range. Contrary to standard models, the species coupling parameters are general, not restricted to non-negative values. Therefore, they may represent different ecological regimes, which are derived from the asymptotic solution stability analysis and are represented in a phase diagram. In this diagram, we have identified a forbidden region in the mutualism regime, and a survival/extinction transition with dependence on initial conditions for the competition regime. Also, we shed light on two types of predation and competition: weak, if there are species coexistence, or strong, if at least one species is extinguished.

Restoration Lessons Learned from Bay Scallop Habitat Models

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat quality and quantity are important factors to consider when restoring bay scallop (Argopecten irradians) populations; however, data linking habitat attributes to bay scallop populations are lacking. This information is essential to guide restoration efforts to reverse sc...

Habitat heterogeneity hypothesis and edge effects in model metacommunities.

PubMed

Hamm, Michaela; Drossel, Barbara

2017-08-07

Spatial heterogeneity is an inherent property of any living environment and is expected to favour biodiversity due to a broader niche space. Furthermore, edges between different habitats can provide additional possibilities for species coexistence. Using computer simulations, this study examines metacommunities consisting of several trophic levels in heterogeneous environments in order to explore the above hypotheses on a community level. We model heterogeneous landscapes by using two different sized resource pools and evaluate the combined effect of dispersal and heterogeneity on local and regional species diversity. This diversity is obtained by running population dynamics and evaluating the robustness (i.e., the fraction of surviving species). The main results for regional robustness are in agreement with the habitat heterogeneity hypothesis, as the largest robustness is found in heterogeneous systems with intermediate dispersal rates. This robustness is larger than in homogeneous systems with the same total amount of resources. We study the edge effect by arranging the two types of resources in two homogeneous blocks. Different edge responses in diversity are observed, depending on dispersal strength. Local robustness is highest for edge habitats that contain the smaller amount of resource in combination with intermediate dispersal. The results show that dispersal is relevant to correctly identify edge responses on community level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Habitat selection models for Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) in Prince William Sound, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostrand, William D.; Gotthardt, Tracey A.; Howlin, Shay; Robards, Martin D.

2005-01-01

We modeled habitat selection by Pacific sand lance (Ammodytes hexapterus) by examining their distribution in relation to water depth, distance to shore, bottom slope, bottom type, distance from sand bottom, and shoreline type. Through both logistic regression and classification tree models, we compared the characteristics of 29 known sand lance locations to 58 randomly selected sites. The best models indicated a strong selection of shallow water by sand lance, with weaker association between sand lance distribution and beach shorelines, sand bottoms, distance to shore, bottom slope, and distance to the nearest sand bottom. We applied an information-theoretic approach to the interpretation of the logistic regression analysis and determined importance values of 0.99, 0.54, 0.52, 0.44, 0.39, and 0.25 for depth, beach shorelines, sand bottom, distance to shore, gradual bottom slope, and distance to the nearest sand bottom, respectively. The classification tree model indicated that sand lance selected shallow-water habitats and remained near sand bottoms when located in habitats with depths between 40 and 60 m. All sand lance locations were at depths <60 m and 93% occurred at depths <40 m. Probable reasons for the modeled relationships between the distribution of sand lance and the independent variables are discussed.

Urbanization effects on stream habitat characteristics in Boston, Massachusetts; Birmingham, Alabama; and Salt Lake City, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Short, T.M.; Giddings, E.M.P.; Zappia, H.; Coles, J.F.

2005-01-01

Relations between stream habitat and urban land-use intensity were examined in 90 stream reaches located in or near the metropolitan areas of Salt Lake City, Utah (SLC); Birmingham, Alabama (BIR); and Boston, Massachusetts (BOS). Urban intensity was based on a multi-metric index (urban intensity index or UII) that included measures of land cover, socioeconomic organization, and urban infrastructure. Twenty-eight physical variables describing channel morphology, hydraulic properties, and streambed conditions were examined. None of the habitat variables was significantly correlated with urbanization intensity in all three study areas. Urbanization effects on stream habitat were less apparent for streams in SLC and BIR, owing to the strong influence of basin slope (SLC) and drought conditions (BIR) on local flow regimes. Streamflow in the BOS study area was not unduly influenced by similar conditions of climate and physiography, and habitat conditions in these streams were more responsive to urbanization. Urbanization in BOS contributed to higher discharge, channel deepening, and increased loading of fine-grained particles to stream channels. The modifying influence of basin slope and climate on hydrology of streams in SLC and BIR limited our ability to effectively compare habitat responses among different urban settings and identify common responses that might be of interest to restoration or water management programs. Successful application of land-use models such as the UII to compare urbanization effects on stream habitat in different environmental settings must account for inherent differences in natural and anthropogenic factors affecting stream hydrology and geomorphology. The challenge to future management of urban development is to further quantify these differences by building upon existing models, and ultimately develop a broader understanding of urbanization effects on aquatic ecosystems. ?? 2005 by the American Fisheries Society.

Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape

DOE PAGES

Kumar, Jitendra; Collier, Nathan; Bisht, Gautam; ...

2016-09-27

Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to the atmosphere under warming climate scenarios. Ice-wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of microtopographic features. This microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine-scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behavior under the current as well as changing climate. Here, we present an end-to-end effort for high-resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world fieldmore » sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We also develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites near Barrow, Alaska, spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygons, representing a broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multiphase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using a high-resolution lidar digital elevation model (DEM), microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high-resolution model mesh. The best available soil data from field observations and literature were utilized to represent the complex heterogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. Simulation results demonstrate the ability of the developed modeling approach to capture – without recourse to model calibration – several aspects of the complex thermal regimes across the sites, and provide insights into the critical role of polygonal tundra microtopography in regulating the thermal dynamics of the carbon-rich permafrost soils. Moreover, areas of significant disagreement between model results and observations highlight the importance of field

Predictive models attribute effects on fish assemblages to toxicity and habitat alteration.

PubMed

de Zwart, Dick; Dyer, Scott D; Posthuma, Leo; Hawkins, Charles P

2006-08-01

Biological assessments should both estimate the condition of a biological resource (magnitude of alteration) and provide environmental managers with a diagnosis of the potential causes of impairment. Although methods of quantifying condition are well developed, identifying and proportionately attributing impairment to probable causes remain problematic. Furthermore, analyses of both condition and cause have often been difficult to communicate. We developed an approach that (1) links fish, habitat, and chemistry data collected from hundreds of sites in Ohio (USA) streams, (2) assesses the biological condition at each site, (3) attributes impairment to multiple probable causes, and (4) provides the results of the analyses in simple-to-interpret pie charts. The data set was managed using a geographic information system. Biological condition was assessed using a RIVPACS (river invertebrate prediction and classification system)-like predictive model. The model provided probabilities of capture for 117 fish species based on the geographic location of sites and local habitat descriptors. Impaired biological condition was defined as the proportion of those native species predicted to occur at a site that were observed. The potential toxic effects of exposure to mixtures of contaminants were estimated using species sensitivity distributions and mixture toxicity principles. Generalized linear regression models described species abundance as a function of habitat characteristics. Statistically linking biological condition, habitat characteristics including mixture risks, and species abundance allowed us to evaluate the losses of species with environmental conditions. Results were mapped as simple effect and probable-cause pie charts (EPC pie diagrams), with pie sizes corresponding to magnitude of local impairment, and slice sizes to the relative probable contributions of different stressors. The types of models we used have been successfully applied in ecology and

Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

1998-01-01

This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

Treesearch

Michael C. Wimberly; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy

2008-01-01

Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about...

A thermal profile method to identify potential ground-water discharge areas and preferred salmonid habitats for long river reaches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, J.J.; Maloy, K.J.

2006-01-01

The thermal regime of riverine systems is a major control on aquatic ecosystems. Ground water discharge is an important abiotic driver of the aquatic ecosystem because it provides preferred thermal structure and habitat for different types of fish at different times in their life history. In large diverse river basins with an extensive riverine system, documenting the thermal regime and ground-water discharge is difficult and problematic. A method was developed to thermally profile long (5-25 kilometers) river reaches by towing in a Lagrangian framework one or two probes that measure temperature, depth, and conductivity. One probe is towed near the streambed and, if used, a second probe is towed near the surface. The probes continuously record data at 1-3-second intervals while a Global Positioning System logs spatial coordinates. The thermal profile provides valuable information about spatial and temporal variations in habitat, and, notably, indicates ground-water discharge areas. This method was developed and tested in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, in summer 2001 during low flows in an extreme drought year. The temperature profile comprehensively documents the longitudinal distribution of a river's temperature regime that cannot be captured by fixed station data. The example profile presented exhibits intra-reach diversity that reflects the many factors controlling the temperature of a parcel of water as it moves downstream. Thermal profiles provide a new perspective on riverine system temperature regimes that represent part of the aquatic habitat template for lotic community patterns.

Defining and Identifying Functional Habitat to Inform Species Recovery on a Large Regulated River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwin, S.; Jacobson, R. B.; Elliott, C. M.; Gemeinhardt, T.; Welker, T.; DeLonay, A. J.; Chojnacki, K.

2014-12-01

Goals and objectives for the restoration of aquatic ecosystems often focus on species recovery, but often the primary tools available to managers involve the manipulation of flow regime and physical habitat. Management decisions thus rely on hypotheses about the links between management actions, the response of physical habitat, and the assumed response of a target organism. Ongoing efforts to inform management of the Missouri River as part of Missouri River Restoration Project are focused on the recovery of three endangered species, including the pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus), which is endemic to the Mississippi River basin. Recovery of the pallid sturgeon is hampered by uncertainties surrounding the definition and dynamics of ecologically significant habitats for the fish across a range of life stages. Of special interest are constructed side-channel chutes. Construction of these features has emerged as one of the primary restoration techniques used on the Lower Missouri River, yet much remains to be learned about the effectiveness of these chutes in the effort to recover pallid sturgeon. It remains unclear whether these constructed features provide habitat that may be beneficial to the species and for which life stages. Biologists hypothesize that these areas may be critical for larval retention, refugia, food production, foraging, or spawning. We present the integration of a suite of data - high-resolution hydroacoustic data, hydrodynamic modeling, biotic inventories, and laboratory experiments - designed to refine our understanding of habitat dynamics critical during the early life stages of the pallid sturgeon. We present our findings in the context of ongoing restoration activities in the basin and describe how fundamental science exploring habitat dynamics may be incorporated within the existing adaptive management framework.

Using neutral models to identify constraints on low-severity fire regimes.

Treesearch

Donald McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

2006-01-01

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes...

Multiscale habitat suitability index models for priority landbirds in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions

Treesearch

John M. Tirpak; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Frank R., III Thompson; Daniel J. Twedt; William B., III Uihlein

2009-01-01

Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models were developed to assess habitat quality for 40 priority bird species in the Central Hardwoods and West Gulf Coastal Plain/Ouachitas Bird Conservation Regions. The models incorporated both site and landscape environmental variables from one of six nationally consistent datasets. Potential habitat was first defined from unique...

Detailed predictions of climate induced changes in the thermal and flow regimes in mountain streams of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, José M.; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; García de Jalón, Diego; Solana, Joaquín; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2016-04-01

Streamflow and temperature regimes are well-known to influence on the availability of suitable physical habitat for instream biological communities. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have predicted significant changes in timing and geographic distribution of precipitation and atmospheric temperature for the ongoing century. However, differences in these predictions may arise when focusing on different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, to perform substantiated mitigation and management actions detailed scales are necessary to adequately forecast the consequent thermal and flow regimes. Regional predictions are relatively abundant but detailed ones, both spatially and temporally, are still scarce. The present study aimed at predicting the effects of climate change on the thermal and flow regime in the Iberian Peninsula, refining the resolution of previous studies. For this purpose, the study encompassed 28 sites at eight different mountain rivers and streams in the central part of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). The daily flow was modelled using different daily, monthly and quarterly lags of the historical precipitation and temperature time series. These precipitation-runoff models were developed by means of M5 model trees. On the other hand water temperature was modelled at similar time scale by means of nonlinear regression from dedicated site-specific data. The developed models were used to simulate the temperature and flow regime under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) until the end of the present century by considering nine different GCMs, which were pertinently downscaled. The precipitation-runoff models achieved high accuracy (NSE>0.7), especially in regards of the low flows of the historical series. Results concomitantly forecasted flow reductions between 7 and 17 % (RCP4.5) and between 8 and 49% (RCP8.5) of the annual average in the most cases, being variable the magnitude and timing at each

A Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellular meridional circulation in advection- and diffusion-dominated regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belucz, B.; Dikpati, M.; Forgacs-Dajka, E.

2014-12-01

Babcock-Leighton type solar dynamo models with single cell meridional circulation are successful in reproducing many solarcycle features, and recently such a model was applied for solarcycle 24 amplitude prediction. It seems that cycle 24 amplitudeforecast may not be validated. One of the reasons is the assumption of a single cell meridional circulation. Recent observations andtheoretical models of meridional circulation do not indicate a single-celledflow pattern. So it is nessecary to examine the role of complexmulti-cellular circulation patterns in a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model in the advection and diffusion dominated regimes.By simulating a Babcock-Leighton solar dynamo model with multi-cellularflow, we show that the presence of a weak, second, high-latitudereverse cell speeds up the cycle and slighty enhances the poleward branch in the butterfly diagram, whereas the presence of a second cellin depth reverses the tilt of the butterfly wing and leads to ananti-solar type feature. If, instead, the butterfly diagram isconstructed from the middle of the convection zone in that case, a solar-like pattern can be retrieved. All the above cases behavequalitatively similar in advection and diffusion-dominated regimes.However, our dynamo with a meridional circulation containing fourcells in latitude behaves distinctly different in the two regimes, producing a solar-like butterfly diagram with fast cycles indiffusion-dominated regime, and a complex branches in the butterflydiagram in the advection-dominated regime. Another interestingfinding from our studies is that a four-celled flow pattern containing two in radius and two in latitude always producesquadrupolar parity as the relaxed solution.

Modeling the spatio-temporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape: Modeling Archive

DOE Data Explorer

Kumar, Jitendra; Collier, Nathan; Bisht, Gautam; Mills, Richard T.; Thornton, Peter E.; Iversen, Colleen M.; Romanovsky, Vladimir

2016-01-27

This Modeling Archive is in support of an NGEE Arctic discussion paper under review and available at http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2016-29/. Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to atmosphere under warming climate. Ice--wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of microtopographic features. The microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behaviour under current as well as changing climate. We present here an end-to-end effort for high resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites at Barrow, Alaska spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygon and representative of broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multi--phase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN) was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using high resolution LiDAR DEM, microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high resolution model mesh. Best available soil data from field observations and literature was utilized to represent the complex hetogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. This data collection provides the complete set of input files, forcing data sets and computational meshes for simulations using PFLOTRAN for four sites at Barrow Environmental Observatory. It also document the complete computational workflow for this modeling study to allow verification, reproducibility and follow up studies.

A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

2012-01-01

We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional

Relations between habitat variability and population dynamics of bass in the Huron River, Michigan

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