Threatened and endangered subspecies with vulnerable ecological traits Also have high susceptibility to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benscoter, Allison M.; Reece, Joshua S.; Noss, Reed F.; Brandt, Laura B.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Watling, James I.

2013-01-01

The presence of multiple interacting threats to biodiversity and the increasing rate of species extinction make it critical to prioritize management efforts on species and communities that maximize conservation success. We implemented a multi-step approach that coupled vulnerability assessments evaluating threats to Florida taxa such as climate change, sea-level rise, and habitat fragmentation with in-depth literature surveys of taxon-specific ecological traits. The vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and ecological traits of 12 threatened and endangered subspecies were compared to non-listed subspecies of the same parent species. Overall, the threatened and endangered subspecies showed high vulnerability and low adaptive capacity, in particular to sea level rise and habitat fragmentation. They also exhibited larger home ranges and greater dispersal limitation compared to non-endangered subspecies, which may inhibit their ability to track changing climate in fragmented landscapes. There was evidence for lower reproductive capacity in some of the threatened or endangered taxa, but not for most. Taxa located in the Florida Keys or in other low coastal areas were most vulnerable to sea level rise, and also showed low levels of adaptive capacity, indicating they may have a lower probability of conservation success. Our analysis of at-risk subspecies and closely related non-endangered subspecies demonstrates that ecological traits help to explain observed differences in vulnerability and adaptive capacity. This study points to the importance of assessing the relative contributions of multiple threats and evaluating conservation value at the species (or subspecies) level when resources are limited and several factors affect conservation success.

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study.

PubMed

Boucek, Ross E; Heithaus, Michael R; Santos, Rolando; Stevens, Philip; Rehage, Jennifer S

2017-10-01

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine-dependent large-bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3-5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012-2013 and 2015-2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify

The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Amanda; Reece, Joshua S.; Tirpak, Blair; Edwards, Cynthia Kallio; Geselbracht, Laura; Woodrey, Mark; LaPeyre, Megan K.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2015-01-01

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both

The Habitat Susceptibility of Bali Starling (Leucopsar rothschildi Stresemann> 1912) Based on Forest Fire Vulnerability Mappin in West Bali National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pramatana, F.; Prasetyo, L. B.; Rushayati, S. B.

2017-10-01

Bali starling is an endemic and endangered species which tend to decrease of its population in the wild. West Bali National Park (WBNP) is the only habitat of bali starling, however it is threatened nowadays by forest fire. Understanding the sensitivity of habitat to forest & land fire is urgently needed. Geographic Information System (GIS) can be used for mapping the vulnerability of forest fire. This study aims to analyze the contributed factor of forest fire, to develop vulnerability level map of forest fire in WBNP, to estimate habitat vulnerability of bali starling. The variable for mapping forest fire in WBNP were road distance, village distance, land cover, NDVI, NDMI, surface temperature, and slope. Forest fire map in WBNP was created by scoring from each variable, and classified into four classes of forest fire vulnerability which are very low (9 821 ha), low (5 015.718 ha), middle (6 778.656 ha), and high (2 126.006 ha). Bali starling existence in the middle and high vulnerability forest fire class in WBNP, consequently the population and habitat of bali starling is a very vulnerable. Management of population and habitat of bali starling in WBNP must be implemented focus on forest fire impact.

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

Summarizing components of U.S. Department of the Interior vulnerability assessments to focus climate adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Laura M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.; Carter, Shawn L.

2015-09-29

A secretarial order identified climate adaptation as a critical performance objective for future management of U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) lands and resources in response to global change. Vulnerability assessments can inform climate adaptation planning by providing insight into what natural resources are most at risk and why. Three components of vulnerability—exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity—were defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as necessary for identifying climate adaptation strategies and actions. In 2011, the DOI requested all internal bureaus report ongoing or completed vulnerability assessments about a defined range of assessment targets or climate-related threats. Assessment targets were defined as freshwater resources, landscapes and wildlife habitat, native and cultural resources, and ocean health. Climate-related threats were defined as invasive species, wildfire risk, sea-level rise, and melting ice and permafrost. Four hundred and three projects were reported, but the original DOI survey did not specify that information be provided on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity collectively as part of the request, and it was unclear which projects adhered to the framework recommended by the IPCC. Therefore, the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center conducted a supplemental survey to determine how frequently each of the three vulnerability components was assessed. Information was categorized for 124 of the 403 reported projects (30.8 percent) based on the three vulnerability components, and it was discovered that exposure was the most common component assessed (87.9 percent), followed by sensitivity (68.5 percent) and adaptive capacity (33.1 percent). The majority of projects did not fully assess vulnerability; projects focused on landscapes/wildlife habitats and sea-level rise were among the minority that simultaneously addressed all three vulnerability

Predicting sea-level rise vulnerability of terrestrial habitat and wildlife of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Berkowitz, Paul; Courtot, Karen N.; Krause, Crystal M.

2012-01-01

wildlife breeding habitats for each island. The subsequent chapter (chapter 2) details a study of the Laysan Island ecosystem, describing a quantitative model that incorporates SLR, storm wave, and rising groundwater inundation. Wildlife, storm, and oceanographic data allowed for an assessment of the phenological and spatial vulnerability of Laysan Island's breeding bird species to SLR and storms. Using remote sensing and geospatial techniques, we estimated topography, classified vegetation, modeled SLR, and evaluated a range of climate change scenarios. On the basis of high-resolution airborne data collected during 2010-11 (root-mean-squared error = 0.05-0.18 m), we estimated the maximum elevation of 20 individual islands extending from Kure Atoll to French Frigate Shoals (range: 1.8-39.7 m) and computed the mean elevation (1.7 m, standard deviation 1.1 m) across all low-lying islands. We also analyzed general climate models to describe rainfall and temperature scenarios expected to influence adaptation of some plants and animals for this region. Outcomes for the NWHI predicted an increase in temperature of 1.8-2.6 degrees Celsius (°C) and an annual decrease in precipitation of 24.7-76.3 millimeters (mm) across the NWHI by 2100. Our models of passive SLR (excluding wave-driven effects, erosion, and accretion) showed that approximately 4 percent of the total land area in the NWHI will be lost with scenarios of +1.0 m of SLR and 26 percent will be lost with +2.0 m of SLR. Some atolls are especially vulnerable to SLR. For example, at Pearl and Hermes Atoll our analysis indicated substantial habitat losses with 43 percent of the land area inundated at +1.0 m SLR and 92 percent inundated at +2.0 m SLR. Across the NWHI, seven islands will be completely submerged with +2.0 m SLR. The limited global ranges of some tropical nesting birds make them particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts in the NWHI. Climate change scenarios and potential SLR impacts presented here

Assessment on vulnerability of coastal wetlands to sea level rise in the Yangtze Estuary, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, L.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

2013-12-01

The Yangtze Delta in China is vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism as well as of great environmental significance. In recent decades, the prospect of climate change, in particular sea level rise and its effects on low lying coastal areas have generated worldwide attention to coastal ecosystems. Coastal wetlands, as important parts of coastal ecosystem, are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of coastal wetlands to climate change, assess the impacts of climate change on coastal wetlands and formulate feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal zone ecosystems. In this study, taking the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary as a case study, the potential impacts of sea-level rise to coastal wetlands habitat were analyzed by the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence (SPRC) model. The key indicators, such as the sea-level rise rate, subsidence rate, elevation, daily inundation duration of habitat and sedimentation rate, were selected to build a vulnerability assessment system according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment on the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary under the sea level rise rate of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed that at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.26 cm/a, 92.3 % of the coastal wetlands in the Yangtze Estuary was in the EVI score of 0 in 2030s, i.e. the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of coastal wetlands was negligible. While 7.4 % and 0.3 % of the coastal wetlands were in the EVI score of

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

Vulnerable Habitats Alter African Meliponine Bee’s (Hymenoptera: Apidae) Assemblages in an Eastern Afromontane Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Bobadoye, Bridget O; Ndegwa, Paul N; Irungu, Lucy; Fombong, Ayuka T

2017-01-01

Habitat degradation has over time formed synergy with other factors to contribute to dwindling populations of both fauna and flora by altering their habitats. The disturbance of natural habitats affects the diversity of both vertebrates and invertebrates by altering both feeding and nesting sites for which organisms are known to depend on for survival. Little is known of the extent to which vulnerable habitats could shape the diversity of most indigent pollinators such as African meliponine bee species in tropical ecosystems. This study was conducted to determine how disturbance could shape the natural occurrence of African meliponine bee species in different ecological habitats of Taita Hills, leading to changes in their diversity. A total of four species depicted by the Renyi diversity profile was recorded in five of the six main habitat types surveyed, and a further extrapolation with Shannon index (EH) also predicted the highest species richness of 4.24 in a deciduous habitat type. These meliponine bee species (Hypotrigona gribodoi, Hypotrigona ruspolii, Meliponula ferruginea (black), and Plebeina hildebrandti) were observed to be unevenly distributed across all habitats, further indicating that mixed deciduous habitat was more diverse than acacia-dominated bush lands, grasslands, and exotic forest patches. Geometric morphometrics categorized all four meliponine bee species into two major clusters—cluster 1 (H gribodoi, H ruspolii, M ferruginea (black)) and cluster 2 (P hildebrandti)—and further discriminated populations against the 4 potential habitats they are likely to persist or survive in. Each habitat appeared to consist of a cluster of subpopulations and may possibly reveal ecotypes within the four meliponine populations. This has revealed that unprecedented conversions of natural habitats to agroecosystems are a key driving factor causing increased habitat isolation and vulnerability in this Afromontane region which may potentially distort local

HABITAT ASSESSMENT METHODS

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter summarizes and evaluated the habitat assessment protocols of five agencies, USEPA/EMAP/SW, USGS/NAWQA, USEPA/RBP, Ohio EPA, and MDNR/MBSS. It begins with a description of the origin of the habitat indices most widely used by these agencies. Then the habitat assessmen...

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Norman, Laura M.; Labiosa, William B.

2012-01-01

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (REVA) Program is developing and demonstrating approaches to assess current and future environmental vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted. The sister program to EMA.P (Environmental Monitoring Assessment Progr...

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments.

PubMed

Rempel, Robert S; Hornseth, Megan L

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species.

Binational climate change vulnerability assessment of migratory birds in the Great Lakes Basins: Tools and impediments

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change is a global concern, requiring international strategies to reduce emissions, however, climate change vulnerability assessments are often local in scope with assessment areas restricted to jurisdictional boundaries. In our study we explored tools and impediments to understanding and responding to the effects of climate change on vulnerability of migratory birds from a binational perspective. We apply and assess the utility of a Climate Change Vulnerability Index on 3 focal species using distribution or niche modeling frameworks. We use the distributional forecasts to explore possible changes to jurisdictional conservation responsibilities resulting from shifting distributions for: eastern meadowlark (Sturnella magna), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and hooded warbler (Setophaga citrina). We found the Climate Change Vulnerability Index to be a well-organized approach to integrating numerous lines of evidence concerning effects of climate change, and provided transparency to the final assessment of vulnerability. Under this framework, we identified that eastern meadowlark and wood thrush are highly vulnerable to climate change, but hooded warbler is less vulnerable. Our study revealed impediments to assessing and modeling vulnerability to climate change from a binational perspective, including gaps in data or modeling for climate exposure parameters. We recommend increased cross-border collaboration to enhance the availability and resources needed to improve vulnerability assessments and development of conservation strategies. We did not find evidence to suggest major shifts in jurisdictional responsibility for the 3 focal species, but results do indicate increasing responsibility for these birds in the Canadian Provinces. These Provinces should consider conservation planning to help ensure a future supply of necessary habitat for these species. PMID:28225817

Assessing vulnerability to invasion by nonnative plant species at multiple spatial scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, T.J.; Chong, G.W.; Schell, L.D.; Rimar, K.A.; Otsuki, Yuka; Lee, M.; Kalkhan, M.A.; Villa, C.A.

2002-01-01

Basic information on where nonnative plant species have successfully invaded is lacking. We assessed the vulnerability of 22 vegetation types (25 sets of four plots in nine study areas) to nonnative plant invasions in the north–central United States. In general, habitats with high native species richness were more heavily invaded than species-poor habitats, low-elevation areas were more invaded than high-elevation areas, and riparian zones were more invaded than nearby upland sites. For the 100 1000-m2 plots (across all vegetation types), 50% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by longitude, latitude, native plant species richness, soil total percentage nitrogen, and mean maximum July temperature (n = 100 plots; P < 0.001). At the vegetation-type scale (n = 25 sets of four 1000-m2 plots/type), 64% of the variation in nonnative species richness was explained by native plant species richness, elevation, and October to June precipitation (P < 0.001). The foliar cover of nonnative species (log) was strongly positively correlated with the nonnative species richness at the plot scale (r = 0.77, P < 0.001) and vegetation-type scale (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). We concluded that, at the vegetation-type and regional scales in the north–central United States, (1) vegetation types rich in native species are often highly vulnerable to invasion by nonnative plant species; (2) where several nonnative species become established, nonnative species cover can substantially increase; (3) the attributes that maintain high native plant species richness (high light, water, nitrogen, and temperatures) also help maintain nonnative plant species richness; and (4) more care must be taken to preserve native species diversity in highly vulnerable habitats.

Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM).

PubMed

Ezell, Barry Charles

2007-06-01

Quantifying vulnerability to critical infrastructure has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Thus, the purpose of this article is to present a model that quantifies vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a measure of system susceptibility to threat scenarios. This article asserts that vulnerability is a condition of the system and it can be quantified using the Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment Model (I-VAM). The model is presented and then applied to a medium-sized clean water system. The model requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to establish value functions and weights, and to assess protection measures of the system. Simulation is used to account for uncertainty in measurement, aggregate expert assessment, and to yield a vulnerability (Omega) density function. Results demonstrate that I-VAM is useful to decisionmakers who prefer quantification to qualitative treatment of vulnerability. I-VAM can be used to quantify vulnerability to other infrastructures, supervisory control and data acquisition systems (SCADA), and distributed control systems (DCS).

Assessing the security vulnerabilities of correctional facilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spencer, Debra D.; Morrison, G. Steve

1998-12-01

The National Institute of Justice has tasked their satellite facility at Sandia National Laboratories and their Southeast Regional Technology Center in Charleston, South Carolina to devise new procedures and tools for helping correctional facilities to assess their security vulnerabilities. Thus, a team is visiting selected correctional facilities and performing vulnerability assessments. A vulnerability assessment helps identify the easiest paths for inmate escape, for introduction of contraband such as drugs or weapons, for unexpected intrusion from outside of the facility, and for the perpetration of violent acts on other inmates and correctional employees. In addition, the vulnerability assessment helps to quantify the security risks for the facility. From these assessments will come better procedures for performing vulnerability assessments in general at other correctional facilities, as well as the development of tools to assist with the performance of such vulnerability assessments.

An approach of habitat degradation assessment for characterization on coastal habitat conservation tendency.

PubMed

Zhou, Xi-Yin; Lei, Kun; Meng, Wei

2017-09-01

Coastal zones are population and economy highly intensity regions all over the world, and coastal habitat supports the sustainable development of human society. The accurate assessment of coastal habitat degradation is the essential prerequisite for coastal zone protection. In this study, an integrated framework of coastal habitat degradation assessment including landuse classification, habitat classifying and zoning, evaluation criterion of coastal habitat degradation and coastal habitat degradation index has been established for better regional coastal habitat assessment. Through establishment of detailed three-class landuse classification, the fine landscape change is revealed, the evaluation criterion of coastal habitat degradation through internal comparison based on the results of habitat classifying and zoning could indicate the levels of habitat degradation and distinguish the intensity of human disturbances in different habitat subareas under the same habitat classification. Finally, the results of coastal habitat degradation assessment could be achieved through coastal habitat degradation index (CHI). A case study of the framework is carried out in the Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast, China, and the main results show the following: (1) The accuracy of all land use classes are above 90%, which indicates a satisfactory accuracy for the classification map. (2) The Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast is divided into 3 kinds of habitats and 5 subareas. (3) In the five subareas of the Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast, the levels of coastal habitat degradation own significant difference. The whole Circum-Bohai-Sea-Coast generally is in a worse state according to area weighting of each habitat subarea. This assessment framework of coastal habitat degradation would characterize the landuse change trend, realize better coastal habitat degradation assessment, reveal the habitat conservation tendency and distinguish intensity of human disturbances. Furthermore, it would support for accurate coastal

6 CFR 27.215 - Security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Security vulnerability assessments. 27.215... FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.215 Security vulnerability...-risk, the facility must complete a Security Vulnerability Assessment. A Security Vulnerability...

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

PubMed

Wheatley, Christopher J; Beale, Colin M; Bradbury, Richard B; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Critchlow, Rob; Thomas, Chris D

2017-09-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using forest inventory data to assess fisher resting habitat suitability in California.

Treesearch

William J. Zielinski; Richard L. Truex; Jeffrey R. Dunk; Tom Gaman

2006-01-01

The fisher (Martes pennanti) is a forest-dwelling carnivore whose current distribution and association with late-seral forest conditions make it vulnerable to stand-altering human activities or natural disturbances. Fishers select a variety of structures for daily resting bouts. These habitat elements, together with foraging and reproductive (denning) habitat,...

A vulnerability assessment of 300 species in Florida: threats from sea level rise, land use, and climate change.

PubMed

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida's biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments.

A Vulnerability Assessment of 300 Species in Florida: Threats from Sea Level Rise, Land Use, and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Reece, Joshua Steven; Noss, Reed F.; Oetting, Jon; Hoctor, Tom; Volk, Michael

2013-01-01

Species face many threats, including accelerated climate change, sea level rise, and conversion and degradation of habitat from human land uses. Vulnerability assessments and prioritization protocols have been proposed to assess these threats, often in combination with information such as species rarity; ecological, evolutionary or economic value; and likelihood of success. Nevertheless, few vulnerability assessments or prioritization protocols simultaneously account for multiple threats or conservation values. We applied a novel vulnerability assessment tool, the Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value, to assess the conservation priority of 300 species of plants and animals in Florida given projections of climate change, human land-use patterns, and sea level rise by the year 2100. We account for multiple sources of uncertainty and prioritize species under five different systems of value, ranging from a primary emphasis on vulnerability to threats to an emphasis on metrics of conservation value such as phylogenetic distinctiveness. Our results reveal remarkable consistency in the prioritization of species across different conservation value systems. Species of high priority include the Miami blue butterfly (Cyclargus thomasi bethunebakeri), Key tree cactus (Pilosocereus robinii), Florida duskywing butterfly (Ephyriades brunnea floridensis), and Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium). We also identify sources of uncertainty and the types of life history information consistently missing across taxonomic groups. This study characterizes the vulnerabilities to major threats of a broad swath of Florida’s biodiversity and provides a system for prioritizing conservation efforts that is quantitative, flexible, and free from hidden value judgments. PMID:24260447

Assessing European wild fire vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oehler, F.; Oliveira, S.; Barredo, J. I.; Camia, A.; Ayanz, J. San Miguel; Pettenella, D.; Mavsar, R.

2012-04-01

Wild fire vulnerability is a measure of potential socio-economic damage caused by a fire in a specific area. As such it is an important component of long-term fire risk management, helping policy-makers take informed decisions about adequate expenditures for fire prevention and suppression, and to target those regions at highest risk. This paper presents a first approach to assess wild fire vulnerability at the European level. A conservative approach was chosen that assesses the cost of restoring the previous land cover after a potential fire. Based on the CORINE Land Cover, a restoration cost was established for each land cover class at country level, and an average restoration time was assigned according to the recovery capacity of the land cover. The damage caused by fire was then assessed by discounting the cost of restoring the previous land cover over the restoration period. Three different vulnerability scenarios were considered assuming low, medium and high fire severity causing different levels of damage. Over Europe, the potential damage of wild land fires ranges from 10 - 13, 732 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for low fire severity, 32 - 45,772 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for medium fire severity and 54 - 77,812 Euro*ha-1*yr-1 for high fire severity. The least vulnerable are natural grasslands, moors and heathland and sclerophyllous vegetation, while the highest cost occurs for restoring broad-leaved forest. Preliminary validation comparing these estimates with official damage assessments for past fires shows reasonable results. The restoration cost approach allows for a straightforward, data extensive assessment of fire vulnerability at European level. A disadvantage is the inherent simplification of the evaluation procedure with the underestimation of non-markets goods and services. Thus, a second approach has been developed, valuing individual wild land goods and services and assessing their annual flow which is lost for a certain period of time in case of a fire event. However

Combining demographic and genetic factors to assess population vulnerability in stream species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erin L, Landguth; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Jones, Leslie W.; Waples, Robin S.; Whited, Diane; Lowe, Winsor H.; Lucotch, John; Neville, Helen; Luikart, Gordon

2014-01-01

Accelerating climate change and other cumulative stressors create an urgent need to understand the influence of environmental variation and landscape features on the connectivity and vulnerability of freshwater species. Here, we introduce a novel modeling framework for aquatic systems that integrates spatially explicit, individual-based, demographic and genetic (demogenetic) assessments with environmental variables. To show its potential utility, we simulated a hypothetical network of 19 migratory riverine populations (e.g., salmonids) using a riverscape connectivity and demogenetic model (CDFISH). We assessed how stream resistance to movement (a function of water temperature, fluvial distance, and physical barriers) might influence demogenetic connectivity, and hence, population vulnerability. We present demographic metrics (abundance, immigration, and change in abundance) and genetic metrics (diversity, differentiation, and change in differentiation), and combine them into a single vulnerability index for identifying populations at risk of extirpation. We considered four realistic scenarios that illustrate the relative sensitivity of these metrics for early detection of reduced connectivity: (1) maximum resistance due to high water temperatures throughout the network, (2) minimum resistance due to low water temperatures throughout the network, (3) increased resistance at a tributary junction caused by a partial barrier, and (4) complete isolation of a tributary, leaving resident individuals only. We then applied this demogenetic framework using empirical data for a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) metapopulation in the upper Flathead River system, Canada and USA, to assess how current and predicted future stream warming may influence population vulnerability. Results suggest that warmer water temperatures and associated barriers to movement (e.g., low flows, dewatering) are predicted to fragment suitable habitat for migratory salmonids, resulting in the loss

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: a systematic assessment approach.

PubMed

Moyle, Peter B; Kiernan, Joseph D; Crain, Patrick K; Quiñones, Rebecca M

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California's native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It

Climate Change Vulnerability of Native and Alien Freshwater Fishes of California: A Systematic Assessment Approach

PubMed Central

Moyle, Peter B.; Kiernan, Joseph D.; Crain, Patrick K.; Quiñones, Rebecca M.

2013-01-01

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It

Mountain torrents: Quantifying vulnerability and assessing uncertainties

PubMed Central

Totschnig, Reinhold; Fuchs, Sven

2013-01-01

Vulnerability assessment for elements at risk is an important component in the framework of risk assessment. The vulnerability of buildings affected by torrent processes can be quantified by vulnerability functions that express a mathematical relationship between the degree of loss of individual elements at risk and the intensity of the impacting process. Based on data from the Austrian Alps, we extended a vulnerability curve for residential buildings affected by fluvial sediment transport processes to other torrent processes and other building types. With respect to this goal to merge different data based on different processes and building types, several statistical tests were conducted. The calculation of vulnerability functions was based on a nonlinear regression approach applying cumulative distribution functions. The results suggest that there is no need to distinguish between different sediment-laden torrent processes when assessing vulnerability of residential buildings towards torrent processes. The final vulnerability functions were further validated with data from the Italian Alps and different vulnerability functions presented in the literature. This comparison showed the wider applicability of the derived vulnerability functions. The uncertainty inherent to regression functions was quantified by the calculation of confidence bands. The derived vulnerability functions may be applied within the framework of risk management for mountain hazards within the European Alps. The method is transferable to other mountain regions if the input data needed are available. PMID:27087696

Social vulnerability assessment: a growing practice in Europe?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapsell, S.; McC arthy, S.

2012-04-01

This paper builds upon work on social vulnerability from the CapHaz-Net consortium, an ongoing research project funded by the European Commission in its 7th Framework Programme. The project focuses on the social dimensions of natural hazards, as well as on regional practices of risk prevention and management, and aims at improving the resilience of European societies to natural hazards, paying particular attention to social capacity building. The topic of social vulnerability is one of seven themes being addressed in the project. There are various rationales for examining the relevance of social vulnerability to natural hazards. Vulnerability assessment has now been accepted as a requirement for the effective development of emergency management capability, and assessment of social vulnerability has been recognised as being integral to understanding the risk to natural hazards. The aim of our research was to examine social vulnerability, how it might be understood in the context of natural hazards in Europe, and how social vulnerability can be addressed to increase social capacity. The work comprised a review of research on social vulnerability to different natural hazards within Europe and included concepts and definitions of social vulnerability (and related concepts), the purpose of vulnerability assessment and who decides who is vulnerable, different approaches to assessing or measuring social vulnerability (such as the use of 'classical' quantitative vulnerability indicators and qualitative community-based approaches, along with the advantages and disadvantages of both), conceptual frameworks for assessing social vulnerability and three case studies of social vulnerability studies within Europe: flash floods in the Italian Alps, fluvial flooding in Germany and heat waves in Spain. The review reveals variable application of social vulnerability analysis across Europe and there are indications why this might be the case. Reasons could range from the scale of

Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework, Third Edition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Framework (the Framework), third edition, is a manual to help transportation agencies and their partners assess the vulnerability of transportation infrastructu...

77 FR 28894 - Maritime Vulnerability Self-Assessment Tool

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-16

... DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Transportation Security Administration Maritime Vulnerability Self... maritime vulnerability self- assessment tool. SUMMARY: The Transportation Security Administration (TSA... conducting vulnerability assessments became available and usage of the TMSARM has dropped off considerably...

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

2012-12-01

As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential

Sage-grouse habitat assessment framework: multi-scale habitat assessment tool

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This document provides policymakers, resource managers, and specialists with a comprehensive framework for assessing sage-grouse habitat in the sagebrush ecosystem. Four pillars form the foundation for the success of this approach: science, effective conservation policy, implementation, and adapti...

VuWiki: An Ontology-Based Semantic Wiki for Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazai, Bijan; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Büscher, Christian; Wegner, Antje

2014-05-01

The concept of vulnerability, as well as its implementation in vulnerability assessments, is used in various disciplines and contexts ranging from disaster management and reduction to ecology, public health or climate change and adaptation, and a corresponding multitude of ideas about how to conceptualize and measure vulnerability exists. Three decades of research in vulnerability have generated a complex and growing body of knowledge that challenges newcomers, practitioners and even experienced researchers. To provide a structured representation of the knowledge field "vulnerability assessment", we have set up an ontology-based semantic wiki for reviewing and representing vulnerability assessments: VuWiki, www.vuwiki.org. Based on a survey of 55 vulnerability assessment studies, we first developed an ontology as an explicit reference system for describing vulnerability assessments. We developed the ontology in a theoretically controlled manner based on general systems theory and guided by principles for ontology development in the field of earth and environment (Raskin and Pan 2005). Four key questions form the first level "branches" or categories of the developed ontology: (1) Vulnerability of what? (2) Vulnerability to what? (3) What reference framework was used in the vulnerability assessment?, and (4) What methodological approach was used in the vulnerability assessment? These questions correspond to the basic, abstract structure of the knowledge domain of vulnerability assessments and have been deduced from theories and concepts of various disciplines. The ontology was then implemented in a semantic wiki which allows for the classification and annotation of vulnerability assessments. As a semantic wiki, VuWiki does not aim at "synthesizing" a holistic and overarching model of vulnerability. Instead, it provides both scientists and practitioners with a uniform ontology as a reference system and offers easy and structured access to the knowledge field of

Assessing greater sage-grouse breeding habitat with aerial and ground imagery

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Anthropogenic disturbances, wildfires, and weedy-plant invasions have destroyed and fragmented sagebrush (Artemisia L. spp.) habitats. Sagebrush-dependent species like greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereafter, sage-grouse) are vulnerable to these changes, emphasizing the importance ...

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment.

PubMed

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N H

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Vulnerability of Forests in India: A National Scale Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Jagmohan; Upgupta, Sujata; Jayaraman, Mathangi; Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar; Bala, Govindswamy; Ravindranath, N. H.

2017-09-01

Forests are subjected to stress from climatic and non-climatic sources. In this study, we have reported the results of inherent, as well as climate change driven vulnerability assessments for Indian forests. To assess inherent vulnerability of forests under current climate, we have used four indicators, namely biological richness, disturbance index, canopy cover, and slope. The assessment is presented as spatial profile of inherent vulnerability in low, medium, high and very high vulnerability classes. Fourty percent forest grid points in India show high or very high inherent vulnerability. Plantation forests show higher inherent vulnerability than natural forests. We assess the climate change driven vulnerability by combining the results of inherent vulnerability assessment with the climate change impact projections simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator dynamic global vegetation model. While 46% forest grid points show high, very high, or extremely high vulnerability under future climate in the short term (2030s) under both representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, such grid points are 49 and 54%, respectively, in the long term (2080s). Generally, forests in the higher rainfall zones show lower vulnerability as compared to drier forests under future climate. Minimizing anthropogenic disturbance and conserving biodiversity can potentially reduce forest vulnerability under climate change. For disturbed forests and plantations, adaptive management aimed at forest restoration is necessary to build long-term resilience.

Multi-dimensional flood vulnerability assessment using data envelopment analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahid, Zalina; Saharizan, Nurul Syuhada; Hamzah, Paezah; Hussin, Siti Aida Sheikh; Khairi, Siti Shaliza Mohd

2017-11-01

Malaysia has been greatly impacted by flood during monsoon seasons. Even though flood prone areas are well identified, assessment on the vulnerability of the disaster is lacking. Assessment of flood vulnerability, defined as the potential for loss when a disaster occurs, is addressed in this paper. The focus is on the development of flood vulnerability measurement in 11 states in Peninsular Malaysia using a non-parametric approach of Data Envelopment Analysis. Scores for three dimensions of flood vulnerability (Population Vulnerability, Social Vulnerability and Biophysical) were calculated using secondary data of selected input and output variables across an 11-year period from 2004 to 2014. The results showed that Johor and Pahang were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Population Vulnerability, followed by Kelantan, the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Social Vulnerability and Kedah, Pahang and Terengganu were the most vulnerable to flood in terms of Biophysical Vulnerability among the eleven states. The results also showed that the state of Johor, Pahang and Kelantan to be most vulnerable across the three dimensions. Flood vulnerability assessment is important as it provides invaluable information that will allow the authority to identify and develop plans for flood mitigation and to reduce the vulnerability of flood at the affected regions.

CALTRANS CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2018-01-01

The following report was developed for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) to summarize a vulnerability assessment conducted for assets in Caltrans District 4. The assessment was developed to specifically identify the potential eff...

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations

PubMed Central

Hodgson, Emma E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kaplan, Isaac C.

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill–Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod–Limacina helicina, pink shrimp–Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab–Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake–Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species’ vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate. PMID:27416031

Extending Vulnerability Assessment to Include Life Stages Considerations.

PubMed

Hodgson, Emma E; Essington, Timothy E; Kaplan, Isaac C

2016-01-01

Species are experiencing a suite of novel stressors from anthropogenic activities that have impacts at multiple scales. Vulnerability assessment is one tool to evaluate the likely impacts that these stressors pose to species so that high-vulnerability cases can be identified and prioritized for monitoring, protection, or mitigation. Commonly used semi-quantitative methods lack a framework to explicitly account for differences in exposure to stressors and organism responses across life stages. Here we propose a modification to commonly used spatial vulnerability assessment methods that includes such an approach, using ocean acidification in the California Current as an illustrative case study. Life stage considerations were included by assessing vulnerability of each life stage to ocean acidification and were used to estimate population vulnerability in two ways. We set population vulnerability equal to: (1) the maximum stage vulnerability and (2) a weighted mean across all stages, with weights calculated using Lefkovitch matrix models. Vulnerability was found to vary across life stages for the six species explored in this case study: two krill-Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, pteropod-Limacina helicina, pink shrimp-Pandalus jordani, Dungeness crab-Metacarcinus magister and Pacific hake-Merluccius productus. The maximum vulnerability estimates ranged from larval to subadult and adult stages with no consistent stage having maximum vulnerability across species. Similarly, integrated vulnerability metrics varied greatly across species. A comparison showed that some species had vulnerabilities that were similar between the two metrics, while other species' vulnerabilities varied substantially between the two metrics. These differences primarily resulted from cases where the most vulnerable stage had a low relative weight. We compare these methods and explore circumstances where each method may be appropriate.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pacifici, Michela; Foden, Wendy B.; Visconti, Piero; Watson, James E. M.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Kovacs, Kit M.; Scheffers, Brett R.; Hole, David G.; Martin, Tara G.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Corlett, Richard T.; Huntley, Brian; Bickford, David; Carr, Jamie A.; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pearce-Kelly, Paul; Pearson, Richard G.; Williams, Stephen E.; Willis, Stephen G.; Young, Bruce; Rondinini, Carlo

2015-03-01

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversity losses, conservationists need to identify those species that are likely to be most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this Review, we summarize different currencies used for assessing species' climate change vulnerability. We describe three main approaches used to derive these currencies (correlative, mechanistic and trait-based), and their associated data requirements, spatial and temporal scales of application and modelling methods. We identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches and highlight the sources of uncertainty inherent in each method that limit projection reliability. Finally, we provide guidance for conservation practitioners in selecting the most appropriate approach(es) for their planning needs and highlight priority areas for further assessments.

Assessment of prey vulnerability through analysis of wolf movements and kill sites.

PubMed

Bergman, Eric J; Garrott, Robert A; Creel, Scott; Borkowski, John J; Jaffe, Rosemary; Watson, E G R

2006-02-01

Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.

Lunar Surface Habitat Configuration Assessment: Methodology and Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carpenter, Amanda

2008-01-01

The Lunar Habitat Configuration Assessment evaluated the major habitat approaches that were conceptually developed during the Lunar Architecture Team II Study. The objective of the configuration assessment was to identify desired features, operational considerations, and risks to derive habitat requirements. This assessment only considered operations pertaining to the lunar surface and did not consider all habitat conceptual designs developed. To examine multiple architectures, the Habitation Focus Element Team defined several adequate concepts which warranted the need for a method to assess the various configurations. The fundamental requirement designed into each concept included the functional and operational capability to support a crew of four on a six-month lunar surface mission; however, other conceptual aspects were diverse in comparison. The methodology utilized for this assessment consisted of defining figure of merits, providing relevant information, and establishing a scoring system. In summary, the assessment considered the geometric configuration of each concept to determine the complexity of unloading, handling, mobility, leveling, aligning, mating to other elements, and the accessibility to the lunar surface. In theory, the assessment was designed to derive habitat requirements, potential technology development needs and identify risks associated with living and working on the lunar surface. Although the results were more subjective opposed to objective, the assessment provided insightful observations for further assessments and trade studies of lunar surface habitats. This overall methodology and resulting observations will be describe in detail and illustrative examples will be discussed.

Comparative studies of groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maria, Rizka

2018-02-01

Pollution of groundwater is a primary issue because aquifers are susceptible to contamination from land use and anthropogenic impacts. Groundwater susceptibility is intrinsic and specific. Intrinsic vulnerability refers to an aquifer that is susceptible to pollution and to the geological and hydrogeological features. Vulnerability assessment is an essential step in assessing groundwater contamination. This approach provides a visual analysis for helping planners and decision makers to achieve the sustainable management of water resources. Comparative studies are applying different methodologies to result in the basic evaluation of the groundwater vulnerability. Based on the comparison of methods, there are several advantages and disadvantages. SI can be overlaid on DRASTIC and Pesticide DRASTIC to extract the divergence in sensitivity. DRASTIC identifies low susceptibility and underestimates the pollution risk while Pesticide DRASTIC and SI represents better risk and is recommended for the future. SINTACS method generates very high vulnerability zones with surface waters and aquifer interactions. GOD method could be adequate for vulnerability mapping in karstified carbonate aquifers at small-moderate scales, and EPIK method can be used for large scale. GOD method is suitable for designing large area such as land management while DRASTIC has good accuracy and more real use in geoenvironmental detailed studies.

Habitat assessment, Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Laustrup, Mark S.; Reuter, Joanna M.

2002-01-01

This report documents methods and results of aquatic habitat assessment in the Missouri River near Hermann, Missouri. The assessment is intended to improve understanding of spatial and temporal variability of aquatic habitat, including habitats thought to be critical for the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). Physical aquatic habitat - depth, velocity, and substrate - was assessed around 9 wing dikes and adjacent to the U.S. Route 19 bridge, at discharges varying from 44,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) to 146, 000 cfs during August 2000-May, 2001. For the river as a whole, velocities are bi-modally distributed with distinct peaks relating to navigation channel and wing-dike environments. Velocities predictably showed an increasing trend with increasing discharge. Substrate within wing dikes was dominated by mud at low discharges, whereas the navigation channel had patches of transporting sand, rippled sand, and coarse sand. Discharges that overtopped the wing dikes (about 93,000 cfs, March 2001) were associated with increases of patchy sand, rippled sand, and coarse sand within the wing dikes. When flows were substantially over the wing dikes (146,000 cfs, May 2001) substrates within most wing dikes showed substantial reorganization and coarsening. The habitat assessment provides a geospatial database that can be used to query wing dikes for distributions of depth, velocity, and substrate for comparison with fish samples collected by US Fish and Wildlife Service biologists (Grady and others, 2001). In addition, the assessment documented spatial and temporal variation in habitat within the Hermann reach and over a range of discharges. Measurable geomorphic change--alteration of substrate conditions plus substantial erosion and deposition--was associated with flows equaled or exceeded 12-40% of the time (40-140 days per year). Documented geomorphic change associated with high-frequency flows underscores the natural temporal variability of physical

Climate change vulnerability assessment in Georgia

Treesearch

Binita KC; J. Marshall Shepherd; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2015-01-01

Climate change is occurring in the Southeastern United States, and one manifestation is changes in frequency and intensity of extreme events. A vulnerability assessment is performed in the state of Georgia (United States) at the county level from 1975 to 2012 in decadal increments. Climate change vulnerability is typically measured as a function of exposure to physical...

Review Article: A comparison of flood and earthquake vulnerability assessment indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen C.; Ward, Philip J.; Daniell, James E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

2017-07-01

In a cross-disciplinary study, we carried out an extensive literature review to increase understanding of vulnerability indicators used in the disciplines of earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments. We provide insights into potential improvements in both fields by identifying and comparing quantitative vulnerability indicators grouped into physical and social categories. Next, a selection of index- and curve-based vulnerability models that use these indicators are described, comparing several characteristics such as temporal and spatial aspects. Earthquake vulnerability methods traditionally have a strong focus on object-based physical attributes used in vulnerability curve-based models, while flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use classes in curve-based models. In assessing the differences and similarities between indicators used in earthquake and flood vulnerability models, we only include models that separately assess either of the two hazard types. Flood vulnerability studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as developing object-based physical vulnerability curve assessments and incorporating time-of-the-day-based building occupation patterns. Likewise, earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies by refining their selection of social vulnerability indicators. Based on the lessons obtained in this study, we recommend future studies for exploring risk assessment methodologies across different hazard types.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

PubMed

Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

Integrated assessment of urban vulnerability and resilience. Case study: Targu Ocna town, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grozavu, Adrian; Bănică, Alexandru

2015-04-01

Vulnerability assessment frequently emphasizes the internal fragility of a system in relation to a given hazard, when compared to similar systems or to a reference standard. This internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the ability to predict, to prepare for and cope with or to recover from the manifestation of a risk phenomenon. Thus, the vulnerability is highly related to resilience and adaptability. There is no single methodology for vulnerability and resilience analysis, their assessment can only be made by identifying and integrating indicators which are compatible with the analysis level and the geographic, economic and social features of a certain area. An integrated model of evaluating vulnerability and resilience capacity is being proposed in this paper for Targu Ocna, a small mining settlement in the Eastern Carpathians of Romania, that became in the last years a tourist town and acts within the surrounding territory as a dynamic local pole. Methodologically, the following steps and operations were considered: identifying potential hazards, identifying elements at risk, identifying proper indicators and integrating them in order to evaluate the general vulnerability and resilience. The inventory of elements at risk (the number of people potentially affected, residential or other functionalities buildings, roads and other infrastructure elements etc.) was made based on General Urban Plan, topographic maps (scale 1:5000), ortophotos from 2003 and 2008 and field mapping and researches. Further on, several vulnerability indicators were identified and included within the analytical approach: dependency ratio, income, quality of the habitat and technical urban facilities, environment quality showing differentiated sensitivity. Issues such as preparedness and preventive measures (priority areas within the risk prevention plans), coping ability (networks' geometry and connectivity, emergency utilities and services accessibility) and the

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rykken, Jessica; Rodman, Ann; Droege, Sam; Grundel, Ralph

2014-01-01

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Vulnerability assessments as a political creation: tsunami management in Portugal.

PubMed

Pronk, Maartje; Maat, Harro; Crane, Todd A

2017-10-01

Vulnerability assessments are a cornerstone of contemporary disaster research. This paper shows how research procedures and the presentation of results of vulnerability assessments are politically filtered. Using data from a study of tsunami risk assessment in Portugal, the paper demonstrates that approaches, measurement instruments, and research procedures for evaluating vulnerability are influenced by institutional preferences, lines of communication, or lack thereof, between stakeholder groups, and available technical expertise. The institutional setting and the pattern of stakeholder interactions form a filter, resulting in a particular conceptualisation of vulnerability, affecting its operationalisation via existing methods and technologies and its institutional embedding. The Portuguese case reveals a conceptualisation that is aligned with perceptions prevalent in national government bureaucracies and the exclusion of local stakeholders owing to selected methodologies and assessment procedures. The decisions taken by actors involved in these areas affect how vulnerability is assessed, and ultimately which vulnerability reduction policies will be recommended in the appraisal. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

A simplified approach for simulating changes in beach habitat due to the combined effectgs of long-term sea level rise, storm erosion, and nourishment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Better understanding of vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise and major storm events require the use of simulation models. Coastal habitats also undergo frequent nourishment restoration works in order to maintain their viability. Vulnerability models must be able to assess the combined...

Effects of human population density and proximity to markets on coral reef fishes vulnerable to extinction by fishing.

PubMed

Brewer, T D; Cinner, J E; Green, A; Pressey, R L

2013-06-01

Coral reef fisheries are crucial to the livelihoods of tens of millions of people; yet, widespread habitat degradation and unsustainable fishing are causing severe depletion of stocks of reef fish. Understanding how social and economic factors, such as human population density, access to external markets, and modernization interact with fishing and habitat degradation to affect fish stocks is vital to sustainable management of coral reef fisheries. We used fish survey data, national social and economic data, and path analyses to assess whether these factors explain variation in biomass of coral reef fishes among 25 sites in Solomon Islands. We categorized fishes into 3 groups on the basis of life-history characteristics associated with vulnerability to extinction by fishing (high, medium, and low vulnerability). The biomass of fish with low vulnerability was positively related to habitat condition. The biomass of fishes with high vulnerability was negatively related to fishing conducted with efficient gear. Use of efficient gear, in turn, was strongly and positively related to both population density and market proximity. This result suggests local population pressure and external markets have additive negative effects on vulnerable reef fish. Biomass of the fish of medium vulnerability was not explained by fishing intensity or habitat condition, which suggests these species may be relatively resilient to both habitat degradation and fishing. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessing the social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda.

PubMed

Bizimana, Jean-Pierre; Twarabamenye, Emmanuel; Kienberger, Stefan

2015-01-07

Since 2004, malaria interventions in Rwanda have resulted in substantial decline of malaria incidence. However, this achievement is fragile as potentials for local malaria transmissions remain. The risk of getting malaria infection is partially explained by social conditions of vulnerable populations. Since vulnerability to malaria is both influenced by social and environmental factors, its complexity cannot be measured by a single value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to apply a composite indicator approach for assessing social vulnerability to malaria in Rwanda. This assessment informs the decision-makers in targeting malaria interventions and allocating limited resources to reduce malaria burden in Rwanda. A literature review was used to conceptualize the social vulnerability to malaria and to select the appropriate vulnerability indicators. Indicators used in the index creation were classified into susceptibility and lack of resilience vulnerability domains. The main steps followed include selection of indicators and datasets, imputation of missing values, descriptive statistics, normalization and weighting of indicators, local sensitivity analysis and indicators aggregation. Correlation analysis helped to empirically evidence the association between the indicators and malaria incidence. The high values of social vulnerability to malaria are found in Gicumbi, Rusizi, Nyaruguru and Gisagara, and low values in Muhanga, Nyarugenge, Kicukiro and Nyanza. The most influential susceptibility indicators to increase malaria are population change (r = 0.729), average number of persons per bedroom (r = 0.531), number of households affected by droughts and famines (r = 0.591), and area used for irrigation (r = 0.611). The bed net ownership (r = -0.398) and poor housing wall materials (0.378) are the lack of resilience indicators that significantly correlate with malaria incidence. The developed composite index social vulnerability to malaria

Improving satellite vulnerability assessment to untrackable orbital debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, Nathan; Schaefer, Frank; Rudolph, Martin; Destefanis, Roberto; Grassi, Lilith

2012-07-01

The projected growth in the untrackable orbital debris population will place an increased emphasis on satellite vulnerability assessments during both design and mission operations. This study presents an enhanced method for assessing satellite vulnerability to untrackable orbital debris that expands on traditional practices. By looking beyond structural penetration of the spacecraft, the method predicts the survivability of individual components and the associated degradation of system functionality resulting from untrackable debris impacts. A new risk assessment tool, the Particle Impact Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Tool (PIRAT), has been developed based on this method and is also presented here. It interfaces with both the NASA ORDEM2000 and ESA MASTER-2009 debris models and has been validated against the benchmark test cases from the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This study concludes with an example vulnerability assessment using PIRAT for a generic Earth observation satellite in a Sun-synchronous low-Earth orbit. The results illustrate the additional insight provided by this method that can be used to improve the robustness of future satellite designs and mitigate the overall mission risk posed by untrackable orbital debris.

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

7 CFR 1730.27 - Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 11 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). 1730.27... Requirements § 1730.27 Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (VRA). (a) Each borrower with an approved RUS electric...'s system, and records of such additional assessments shall be maintained by the borrower. (b) Each...

Geomorphology and Sustainable Subsistence Habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, A. C.; Kruger, L. E.

2016-02-01

Climatic, tectonic, and human-related impacts are changing the distribution of shoreline habitats and associated species used as food resources. There is a need to summarize current and future shoreline geomorphic - biotic relationships and better understand potential impacts to native customary and traditional gathering patterns. By strategically integrating Native knowledge and observations, we create an inclusive vulnerability assessment strategy resulting in a win-win opportunity for resource users and research scientists alike. We merged the NOAA ShoreZone database with results from over sixty student intern discussions in six southeast Alaska Native communities. Changes in shore width and unit length were derived using near shore bathymetry depths and available isostatic rebound, tectonic movement, and rates of sea level rise. Physical attributes including slope, substrate, and exposure were associated with presence and abundance of specific species. Student interns, selected by Tribes and Tribal associations, conducted resource-based discussions with community members to summarize species use, characteristics of species habitat, transportation used to access collection areas, and potential threats to habitats. Geomorphic trends and community observations were summarized to assess potential threats within a spatial context. Given current measured rates of uplift and sea level rise, 2.4 to 0 m of uplift along with 0.20 m of sea level rise is expected in the next 100 years. Coastlines of southeast Alaska will be subject to both drowning (primarily to the south) and emergence (primarily to the north). We predict decreases in estuary and sediment-dominated shoreline length and an increase in rocky habitats. These geomorphic changes, combined with resident's concerns, highlight six major interrelated coastal vulnerabilities including: (1) reduction of clam and clam habitat quantity and quality, (2) reduction in chiton quality and quantity, (3) harmful expansion of

Volcanic risk assessment: Quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, S. F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Fonseca, J. F. B. D.; Solidum, R. U.; Wilson, T. M.

2014-04-01

This paper presents structured and cost-effective methods for assessing the physical vulnerability of at-risk communities to the range of volcanic hazards, developed as part of the MIA-VITA project (2009-2012). An initial assessment of building and infrastructure vulnerability has been carried out for a set of broadly defined building types and infrastructure categories, with the likelihood of damage considered separately for projectile impact, ash fall loading, pyroclastic density current dynamic pressure and earthquake ground shaking intensities. In refining these estimates for two case study areas: Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines and Fogo volcano in Cape Verde, we have developed guidelines and methodologies for carrying out physical vulnerability assessments in the field. These include identifying primary building characteristics, such as construction material and method, as well as subsidiary characteristics, for example the size and prevalence of openings, that may be important in assessing eruption impacts. At-risk buildings around Kanlaon were found to be dominated by timber frame buildings that exhibit a high vulnerability to pyroclastic density currents, but a low vulnerability to failure from seismic shaking. Around Fogo, the predominance of unreinforced masonry buildings with reinforced concrete slab roofs suggests a high vulnerability to volcanic earthquake but a low vulnerability to ash fall loading. Given the importance of agriculture for local livelihoods around Kanlaon and Fogo, we discuss the potential impact of infrastructure vulnerability for local agricultural economies, with implications for volcanic areas worldwide. These methodologies and tools go some way towards offering a standardised approach to carrying out future vulnerability assessments for populated volcanic areas.

Incorporating Tsunami Projections to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessments -A Case Study for Midway Atoll-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gica, E.; Reynolds, M.

2012-12-01

Recent global models predict a rise of approximately one meter in global sea level by 2100, with potentially larger increases in areas of the Pacific Ocean. If current climate change trends continue, low-lying islands across the globe may become inundated over the next century, placing island biodiversity at risk. Adding to the risk of inundation due to sea level rise is the occurrence of cyclones and tsunamis. This combined trend will affect the low-lying islands of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and it is therefore important to assess its impact since these islands are critical habitats to many endangered endemic species and support the largest tropical seabird rookery in the world. The 11 March 2011 Tohoku (Mw=8.8) earthquake-tsunami affected the habitat of many endangered endemic species in Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge because all three islands (Sand, Eastern and Spit) were inundated by tsunami waves. At present sea level, some tsunamis from certain source regions would not affect Midway Atoll. For example, the previous earthquake-tsunamis such as the 15 November 2006 Kuril (Mw=8.1) and 13 February 2007 Kuril (Mw=7.9) were not significant enough to affect Midway Atoll. But at higher sea levels, tsunamis with similar characteristics could pose a threat to such terrestrial habitats and wildlife. To visualize projected impacts to vegetation composition, wildlife habitat, and wildlife populations, we explored and analyzed inundation vulnerability for a range of possible sea level rise and tsunami scenarios at Midway Atoll National Wildlife Refuge. Studying the combined threat of tsunamis and sea level rise can provide more accurate and comprehensive assessments of the vulnerability of the unique natural resources on low-lying islands. A passive sea level rise model was used to determine how much inundation will occur at different sea level rise values for the three islands of Midway Atoll and each scenario was coupled with NOAA Center for Tsunami

I-C-SEA Change: A participatory tool for rapid assessment of vulnerability of tropical coastal communities to climate change impacts.

PubMed

Licuanan, Wilfredo Y; Samson, Maricar S; Mamauag, Samuel S; David, Laura T; Borja-Del Rosario, Roselle; Quibilan, Miledel Christine C; Siringan, Fernando P; Sta Maria, Ma Yvainne Y; España, Norievill B; Villanoy, Cesar L; Geronimo, Rollan C; Cabrera, Olivia C; Martinez, Renmar Jun S; Aliño, Porfirio M

2015-12-01

We present a synoptic, participatory vulnerability assessment tool to help identify the likely impacts of climate change and human activity in coastal areas and begin discussions among stakeholders on the coping and adaptation measures necessary to minimize these impacts. Vulnerability assessment tools are most needed in the tropical Indo-Pacific, where burgeoning populations and inequitable economic growth place even greater burdens on natural resources and support ecosystems. The Integrated Coastal Sensitivity, Exposure, and Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change (I-C-SEA Change) tool is built around a series of scoring rubrics to guide non-specialists in assigning scores to the sensitivity and adaptive capacity components of vulnerability, particularly for coral reef, seagrass, and mangrove habitats, along with fisheries and coastal integrity. These scores are then weighed against threat or exposure to climate-related impacts such as marine flooding and erosion. The tool provides opportunities for learning by engaging more stakeholders in participatory planning and group decision-making. It also allows for information to be collated and processed during a "town-hall" meeting, facilitating further discussion, data validation, and even interactive scenario building.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time

An interpolation method for stream habitat assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheehan, Kenneth R.; Welsh, Stuart A.

2015-01-01

Interpolation of stream habitat can be very useful for habitat assessment. Using a small number of habitat samples to predict the habitat of larger areas can reduce time and labor costs as long as it provides accurate estimates of habitat. The spatial correlation of stream habitat variables such as substrate and depth improves the accuracy of interpolated data. Several geographical information system interpolation methods (natural neighbor, inverse distance weighted, ordinary kriging, spline, and universal kriging) were used to predict substrate and depth within a 210.7-m2 section of a second-order stream based on 2.5% and 5.0% sampling of the total area. Depth and substrate were recorded for the entire study site and compared with the interpolated values to determine the accuracy of the predictions. In all instances, the 5% interpolations were more accurate for both depth and substrate than the 2.5% interpolations, which achieved accuracies up to 95% and 92%, respectively. Interpolations of depth based on 2.5% sampling attained accuracies of 49–92%, whereas those based on 5% percent sampling attained accuracies of 57–95%. Natural neighbor interpolation was more accurate than that using the inverse distance weighted, ordinary kriging, spline, and universal kriging approaches. Our findings demonstrate the effective use of minimal amounts of small-scale data for the interpolation of habitat over large areas of a stream channel. Use of this method will provide time and cost savings in the assessment of large sections of rivers as well as functional maps to aid the habitat-based management of aquatic species.

Risk assessment by dynamic representation of vulnerability, exploitation, and impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cam, Hasan

2015-05-01

Assessing and quantifying cyber risk accurately in real-time is essential to providing security and mission assurance in any system and network. This paper presents a modeling and dynamic analysis approach to assessing cyber risk of a network in real-time by representing dynamically its vulnerabilities, exploitations, and impact using integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. Given the set of vulnerabilities detected by a vulnerability scanner in a network, this paper addresses how its risk can be assessed by estimating in real-time the exploit likelihood and impact of vulnerability exploitation on the network, based on real-time observations and measurements over the network. The dynamic representation of the network in terms of its vulnerabilities, sensor measurements, and observations is constructed dynamically using the integrated Bayesian network and Markov models. The transition rates of outgoing and incoming links of states in hidden Markov models are used in determining exploit likelihood and impact of attacks, whereas emission rates help quantify the attack states of vulnerabilities. Simulation results show the quantification and evolving risk scores over time for individual and aggregated vulnerabilities of a network.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

Home range and habitat use of the Vulnerable Virginia northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus fuscus in the Central Appalachian Mountains, USA

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Menzel; W. Mark Ford; John W. Edwards; Tamara M. Terry

2006-01-01

The Virginia northern flying squirrel Glaucomys sabrinus fuscus is a Vulnerable sciurid that has experienced a 90% reduction of suitable high elevation boreal montane forest habitat over the last century in the central Appalachians of West Virginia and Virginia, USA. Using radiotelemetry and GIs analyses we examined the species' home range size...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 6 Domestic Security 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability... of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and approve in writing all Security Vulnerability Assessments that satisfy the requirements of § 27.215...

A systematic review of dynamics in climate risk and vulnerability assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurgilevich, Alexandra; Räsänen, Aleksi; Groundstroem, Fanny; Juhola, Sirkku

2017-01-01

Understanding climate risk is crucial for effective adaptation action, and a number of assessment methodologies have emerged. We argue that the dynamics of the individual components in climate risk and vulnerability assessments has received little attention. In order to highlight this, we systematically reviewed 42 sub-national climate risk and vulnerability assessments. We analysed the assessments using an analytical framework with which we evaluated (1) the conceptual approaches to vulnerability and exposure used, (2) if current or future risks were assessed, and (3) if and how changes over time (i.e. dynamics) were considered. Of the reviewed assessments, over half addressed future risks or vulnerability; and of these future-oriented studies, less than 1/3 considered both vulnerability and exposure dynamics. While the number of studies that include dynamics is growing, and while all studies included socio-economic aspects, often only biophysical dynamics was taken into account. We discuss the challenges of assessing socio-economic and spatial dynamics, particularly the poor availability of data and methods. We suggest that future-oriented studies assessing risk dynamics would benefit from larger stakeholder involvement, discussion of the assessment purpose, the use of multiple methods, inclusion of uncertainty/sensitivity analyses and pathway approaches.

Physical habitat in the national wadeable streams assessment

EPA Science Inventory

Effective environmental policy decisions require stream habitat information that is accurate, precise, and relevant. The recent National Wadeable Streams Assessment (NWSA) carried out by the U.S. EPA required physical habitat information sufficiently comprehensive to facilitate i...

Habitat Utilization Assessment - Building in Behaviors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Mihriban; Blume, Jennifer

2004-01-01

Habitability, and the associated architectural and design attributes of an environment, is a powerful performance shaping factor. By identifying how inhabitants use an area, we can draw conclusions about what design or architectural attributes cause what behaviors and systematically design in desired human performance. We are analyzing how a crew uses a long duration habitat and work environment during a four-day underwater mission and identifying certain architectural and design attributes that are related to, and potential enablers of, certain crew behaviors. By identifying how inhabitants use the habitat, we can draw conclusions about what habitability attributes cause what behaviors and systematically design in desired human performance (applicable to NASA's Bioastronautics Human Behavior and Performance Critical Path Roadmap question 6.12). This assessment replicates a methodology reported in a chapter titled "Sociokinetic Analysis as a Tool for Optimization of Environmental Design" by C. Adams.' That study collected video imagery of certain areas of a closed habitat during a 91 day test and from that data calculated time spent in different volumes during the mission, and characterized the behaviors occurring in certain habitat volumes thus concluding various rules for design of such habitats. This study assesses the utilization of the Aquarius Habitat, an underwater station, which will support six Aquanauts for a fourteen-day mission during which the crew will perform specific scientific and engineering studies. Video is recorded for long uninterrupted periods of time during the mission and from that data the time spent in each area is calculated. In addition, qualitative and descriptive analysis of the types of behaviors in each area is performed with the purpose of identifying any behaviors that are not typical of a certain area. If a participant uses an area in a way different from expected, a subsequent analysis of the features of that area may result in

Vulnerability assessment of atmospheric environment driven by human impacts.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Ding, Feng; Li, Yu; He, Li

2016-11-15

Atmospheric environment quality worsening is a substantial threat to public health worldwide, and in many places, air pollution due to the intensification of the human activity is increasing dramatically. However, no studies have been investigated the integration of vulnerability assessment and atmospheric environment driven by human impacts. The objective of this study was to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes as an early warning system for environment managers and decision makers in term of human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements. We conduct a vulnerability assessment method of atmospheric environment associated with human impact, this method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators under the Exposure-Sensitivity- Adaptive Capacity (ESA) framework. Decision makers can find out relevant vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitudes. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, China, we further applied this developed method and proved it to be reliable and consistent with the China Environmental Status Bulletin. Results indicate that the vulnerability of atmospheric environment in the BTH region is not optimistic, and environment managers should do more about air pollution. Thus, the most appropriate strategic decision and development program of city or state can be picked out assisting by the vulnerable results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought vulnerability assessment for prioritising drought warning implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naumann, Gustavo; Faneca Sànchez, Marta; Mwangi, Emmah; Barbosa, Paulo; Iglesias, Ana; Garrote, Luis; Werner, Micha

2014-05-01

Drought warning provides a potentially efficient approach to mitigation of drought impacts, and should be targeted at areas most vulnerable to being adversely impacted. Assessing drought vulnerability is, however, complex and needs to consider susceptibility to drought impact as well as the capacity to cope with drought. In this paper a Drought Vulnerability Index (DVI) is proposed that considers four primary components that reflect the capacity of society to adapt to drought; the renewable natural capital, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and the available infrastructure and technology. The DVI is established as a weighted combination of these four components, each a composite of selected indicators. Constituent indicators are calculated based on national and/or regional census data and statistics, and while the resulting DVI should not be considered an absolute measure of drought vulnerability it does provide for a prioritisation of areas that can be used to target drought warning efforts. Sensitivity analysis of weights applied show the established DVI to be robust. Through the DVI the development of drought forecasting and warning can be targeted at the most vulnerable areas. The proposed DVI is applied at both the continental scale in Africa to assess drought vulnerability of the different nations across Africa, and at the national level in Kenya, allowing for prioritisation of the counties within Kenya to drought vulnerability. Results show the relative vulnerability of countries and counties vulnerable to drought. At the continental scale, Somalia, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Mali and Chad are found to be the countries most vulnerable to drought. At the national level, the relative vulnerability of the counties across Kenya is found, with counties in the North-East of Kenya having the highest values of DVI. At the country level results were compared with drought disaster information from the EM-DAT disaster database, showing a good

Assessing habitat selection when availability changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, S.; Garner, G.; ,

1996-01-01

We present a method of comparing data on habitat use and availability that allows availability to differ among observations. This method is applicable when habitats change over time and when animals are unable to move throughout a predetermined study area between observations. We used maximum-likelihood techniques to derive an index that estimates the probability that each habitat type would be used if all were equally available. We also demonstrate how these indices can be used to compare relative use of available habitats, assign them ranks, and assess statistical differences between pairs of indices. The set of these indices for all habitats can be compared between groups of animals that represent different seasons, sex or age classes, or experimental treatments. This method allows quantitative comparisons among types and is not affected by arbitrary decisions about which habitats to include in the study. We provide an example by comparing the availability of four categories of sea ice concentration to their use by adult female polar bears, whose movements were monitored by satellite radio tracking in the Bering and Chukchi Seas during 1990. Use of ice categories by bears was nonrandom, and the pattern of use differed between spring and late summer seasons.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Christopher P. Ischay; Ernest L. Fossum; Polly C. Buotte

2014-10-01

The University of Idaho (UI) was asked to participate in the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for Idaho National Laboratory (INL). This report describes the outcome of that assessment. The climate change happening now, due in large part to human activities, is expected to continue in the future. UI and INL used a common framework for assessing vulnerability that considers exposure (future climate change), sensitivity (system or component responses to climate), impact (exposure combined with sensitivity), and adaptive capacity (capability of INL to modify operations to minimize climate change impacts) to assess vulnerability. Analyses of climate change (exposure)more » revealed that warming that is ongoing at INL will continue in the coming decades, with increased warming in later decades and under scenarios of greater greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of precipitation are more uncertain, with multi model means exhibiting somewhat wetter conditions and more wet days per year. Additional impacts relevant to INL include estimates of more burned area and increased evaporation and transpiration, leading to reduced soil moisture and plant growth.« less

Cyber / Physical Security Vulnerability Assessment Integration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacDonald, Douglas G.; Simpkins, Bret E.

Abstract Both physical protection and cyber security domains offer solutions for the discovery of vulnerabilities through the use of various assessment processes and software tools. Each vulnerability assessment (VA) methodology provides the ability to identify and categorize vulnerabilities, and quantifies the risks within their own areas of expertise. Neither approach fully represents the true potential security risk to a site and/or a facility, nor comprehensively assesses the overall security posture. The technical approach to solving this problem was to identify methodologies and processes that blend the physical and cyber security assessments, and develop tools to accurately quantify the unaccounted formore » risk. SMEs from both the physical and the cyber security domains developed the blending methodologies, and cross trained each other on the various aspects of the physical and cyber security assessment processes. A local critical infrastructure entity volunteered to host a proof of concept physical/cyber security assessment, and the lessons learned have been leveraged by this effort. The four potential modes of attack an adversary can use in approaching a target are; Physical Only Attack, Cyber Only Attack, Physical Enabled Cyber Attack, and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack. The Physical Only and the Cyber Only pathway analysis are two of the most widely analyzed attack modes. The pathway from an off-site location to the desired target location is dissected to ensure adversarial activity can be detected and neutralized by the protection strategy, prior to completion of a predefined task. This methodology typically explores a one way attack from the public space (or common area) inward towards the target. The Physical Enabled Cyber Attack and the Cyber Enabled Physical Attack are much more intricate. Both scenarios involve beginning in one domain to affect change in the other, then backing outward to take advantage of the reduced system effectiveness

Addressing uncertainty in vulnerability assessments [Chapter 5

Treesearch

Linda Joyce; Molly Cross; Evan Girvatz

2011-01-01

This chapter addresses issues and approaches for dealing with uncertainty specifically within the context of conducting climate change vulnerability assessments (i.e., uncertainties related to identifying and modeling the sensitivities, levels of exposure, and adaptive capacity of the assessment targets).

Estimating thermal regimes of bull trout and assessing the potential effects of climate warming on critical habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow-routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22-m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13 C° and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14 C°. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment in the western coastal belt in Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranagalage, M. M.

2017-12-01

26th December 2004 tsunami disaster has caused massive loss of life, damage to coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activities in the coastal belt of Sri Lanka. Tsunami vulnerability assessment is a requirement for disaster risk and vulnerability reduction. It plays a major role in identifying the extent and level of vulnerabilities to disasters within the communities. There is a need for a clearer understanding of the disaster risk patterns and factors contributing to it in different parts of the coastal belt. The main objective of this study is to investigate tsunami vulnerability assessment of Moratuwa Municipal council area in Sri Lanka. We have selected Moratuwa area due to considering urbanization pattern and Tsunami hazards of the country. Different data sets such as one-meter resolution LiDAR data, orthophoto, population, housing data and road layer were employed in this study. We employed tsunami vulnerability model for 1796 housing units located there, for a tsunami scenario with a maximum run-up 8 meters. 86% of the total land area affected by the tsunami in 8 meters scenarios. Additionally, building population has been used to estimate population in different vulnerability levels. The result shows that 32% of the buildings have extremely critical vulnerability level, 46% have critical vulnerability level, 22% have high vulnerability level, and 1% have a moderate vulnerability. According to the population estimation model results, 18% reside building with extremely critical vulnerability, 43% with critical vulnerability, 36% with high vulnerability and 3% belong to moderate vulnerability level. The results of the study provide a clear picture of tsunami vulnerability. Outcomes of this analysis can use as a valuable tool for urban planners to assess the risk and extent of disaster risk reduction which could be achieved via suitable mitigation measures to manage the coastal belt in Sri Lanka.

A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coletti, Alex; Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks—defined and prioritized qualitatively by users—can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment in Industrial Complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H. J.; Lee, D. K.

2016-12-01

Climate change has recently caused frequent natural disasters, such as floods, droughts, and heat waves. Such disasters have also increased industrial damages. We must establish climate change adaptation policies to reduce the industrial damages. It is important to make accurate vulnerability assessment to establish climate change adaptation policies. Thus, this study aims at establishing a new index to assess vulnerability level in industrial complexes. Most vulnerability indices have been developed with subjective approaches, such as the Delphi survey and the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). The subjective approaches rely on the knowledge of a few experts, which provokes the lack of the reliability of the indices. To alleviate the problem, we have designed a vulnerability index incorporating objective approaches. We have investigated 42 industrial complex sites in Republic of Korea (ROK). To calculate weights of variables, we used entropy method as an objective method integrating the Delphi survey as a subjective method. Finally, we found our method integrating both subjective method and objective method could generate result. The integration of the entropy method enables us to assess the vulnerability objectively. Our method will be useful to establish climate change adaptation policies by reducing the uncertainties of the methods based on the subjective approaches.

Participatory flood vulnerability assessment: a multi-criteria approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele; Delos Santos Almoradie, Adrian

2018-01-01

This paper presents a participatory multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach for flood vulnerability assessment while considering the relationships between vulnerability criteria. The applicability of the proposed framework is demonstrated in the municipalities of Lajeado and Estrela, Brazil. The model was co-constructed by 101 experts from governmental organizations, universities, research institutes, NGOs, and private companies. Participatory methods such as the Delphi survey, focus groups, and workshops were applied. A participatory problem structuration, in which the modellers work closely with end users, was used to establish the structure of the vulnerability index. The preferences of each participant regarding the criteria importance were spatially modelled through the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) multi-criteria methods. Experts were also involved at the end of the modelling exercise for validation. The final product is a set of individual and group flood vulnerability maps. Both AHP and ANP proved to be effective for flood vulnerability assessment; however, ANP is preferred as it considers the dependences among criteria. The participatory approach enabled experts to learn from each other and acknowledge different perspectives towards social learning. The findings highlight that to enhance the credibility and deployment of model results, multiple viewpoints should be integrated without forcing consensus.

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources.

PubMed

Buotte, Polly C; Peterson, David L; McKelvey, Kevin S; Hicke, Jeffrey A

2016-03-15

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability assessment conducted by the US Forest Service. During this assessment, five subregional workshops were held to capture variability in vulnerability and to develop adaptation tactics. At each workshop, participants answered a questionnaire to: 1) identify species, resources, or other information missing from the regional assessment, and 2) describe subregional vulnerability to climate change. Workshop participants divided into six resource groups; here we focus on wildlife resources. Participants identified information missing from the regional assessment and multiple instances of subregional variability in climate change vulnerability. We provide recommendations for improving the process of capturing subregional variability in a regional vulnerability assessment. We propose a revised conceptual framework structured around pathways of climate influence, each with separate rankings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. These revisions allow for a quantitative ranking of species, pathways, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across subregions. Rankings can be used to direct the development and implementation of future regional research and monitoring programs. The revised conceptual framework is equally applicable as a stand-alone model for assessing climate change vulnerability and as a nested model within a regional assessment for capturing subregional variability in vulnerability. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment Pilot Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, P. K.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Varner, J.

2006-12-01

The results of a pilot study to assess the risk from tsunamis for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon region will be presented. To determine the risk from tsunamis, it is first necessary to establish the hazard or probability that a tsunami of a particular magnitude will occur within a certain period of time. Tsunami inundation maps that provide 100-year and 500-year probabilistic tsunami wave height contours for the Seaside-Gearhart, Oregon, region were developed as part of an interagency Tsunami Pilot Study(1). These maps provided the probability of the tsunami hazard. The next step in determining risk is to determine the vulnerability or degree of loss resulting from the occurrence of tsunamis due to exposure and fragility. The tsunami vulnerability assessment methodology used in this study was developed by M. Papathoma and others(2). This model incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters related to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. Data provided with FEMA's HAZUS loss estimation software and Clatsop County, Oregon, tax assessment data were used as input to the model. The results, presented within a geographic information system, reveal the percentage of buildings in need of reinforcement and the population density in different inundation depth zones. These results can be used for tsunami mitigation, local planning, and for determining post-tsunami disaster response by emergency services. (1)Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, Seaside, Oregon Tsunami Pilot Study--Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps, Joint NOAA/USGS/FEMA Special Report, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2006, Final Draft. (2)Papathoma, M., D. Dominey-Howes, D.,Y. Zong, D. Smith, Assessing Tsunami Vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 2003, p. 377-389.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing habitat connectivity for ground-dwelling animals in an urban environment.

PubMed

Braaker, S; Moretti, M; Boesch, R; Ghazoul, J; Obrist, M K; Bontadina, F

To ensure viable species populations in fragmented landscapes, individuals must be able to move between suitable habitat patches. Despite the increased interest in biodiversity assessment in urban environments, the ecological relevance of habitat connectivity in highly fragmented landscapes remains largely unknown. The first step to understanding the role of habitat connectivity in urban ecology is the challenging task of assessing connectivity in the complex patchwork of contrasting habitats that is found in cities. We developed a data-based framework, minimizing the use of subjective assumptions, to assess habitat connectivity that consists of the following sequential steps: (1) identification of habitat preference based on empirical habitat-use data; (2) derivation of habitat resistance surfaces evaluating various transformation functions; (3) modeling of different connectivity maps with electrical circuit theory (Circuitscape), a method considering all possible pathways across the landscape simultaneously; and (4) identification of the best connectivity map with information-theoretic model selection. We applied this analytical framework to assess habitat connectivity for the European hedgehog Erinaceus europaeus, a model species for ground-dwelling animals, in the city of Zurich, Switzerland, using GPS track points from 40 individuals. The best model revealed spatially explicit connectivity “pinch points,” as well as multiple habitat connections. Cross-validation indicated the general validity of the selected connectivity model. The results show that both habitat connectivity and habitat quality affect the movement of urban hedgehogs (relative importance of the two variables was 19.2% and 80.8%, respectively), and are thus both relevant for predicting urban animal movements. Our study demonstrates that even in the complex habitat patchwork of cities, habitat connectivity plays a major role for ground-dwelling animal movement. Data-based habitat connectivity

A synthesized biophysical and social vulnerability assessment for Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Yung-Jaan

2017-11-01

Taiwan, located in the Western Pacific, is a country that is one of the most vulnerable to disasters that are associated with the changing climate; it is located within the Ring of Fire, which is the most geologically active region in the world. The environmental and geological conditions in Taiwan are sensitive and vulnerable to such disasters. Owing to increasing urbanization in Taiwan, floods and climate-related disasters have taken an increasing toll on human lives. As global warming accelerates the rising of sea levels and increasing of the frequency of extreme weather events, disasters will continue to affect socioeconomic development and human conditions. Under such circumstances, researchers and policymakers alike must recognize the importance of providing useful knowledge concerning vulnerability, disaster recovery and resilience. Strategies for reducing vulnerability and climate-related disaster risks and for increasing resilience involve preparedness, mitigation and adaptation. In the last two decades, extreme climate events have caused severe flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and other disasters and have had negative effects of many sectors, including agriculture, infrastructure and health. Since climate change is expected to have a continued impact on socio-economic development, this work develops a vulnerability assessment framework that integrates both biophysical and social vulnerability and supports synthesized vulnerability analyses to identify vulnerable areas in Taiwan. Owing to its geographical, geological and climatic features, Taiwan is susceptible to earthquakes, typhoons, droughts and various induced disasters. Therefore, Taiwan has the urgent task of establishing a framework for assessing vulnerability as a planning and policy tool that can be used to identify not only the regions that require special attention but also hotspots in which efforts should be made to reduce vulnerability and the risk of climate-related disaster. To

Integrated flash flood vulnerability assessment: Insights from East Attica, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Thaler, Thomas; Heiser, Micha; Hübl, Johannes; Fuchs, Sven

2016-10-01

In the framework of flood risk assessment, vulnerability is a key concept to assess the susceptibility of elements at risk. Besides the increasing amount of studies on flash floods available, in-depth information on vulnerability in Mediterranean countries was missing so far. Moreover, current approaches in vulnerability research are driven by a divide between social scientists who tend to view vulnerability as representing a set of socio-economic factors, and natural scientists who view vulnerability in terms of the degree of loss to an element at risk. Further, vulnerability studies in response to flash flood processes are rarely answered in the literature. In order to close this gap, this paper implemented an integrated vulnerability approach focusing on residential buildings exposed to flash floods in Greece. In general, both physical and social vulnerability was comparable low, which is interpreted as a result from (a) specific building regulations in Greece as well as general design principles leading to less structural susceptibility of elements at risk exposed, and (b) relatively low economic losses leading to less social vulnerability of citizens exposed. The population show high risk awareness and coping capacity to response to natural hazards event and in the same time the impact of the events are quite low, because of the already high use of local protection measures. The low vulnerability score for East Attica can be attributed especially to the low physical vulnerability and the moderate socio-economic well-being of the area. The consequence is to focus risk management strategies mainly in the reduction of the social vulnerability. By analysing both physical and social vulnerability an attempt was made to bridge the gap between scholars from sciences and humanities, and to integrate the results of the analysis into the broader vulnerability context.

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serre, D.; Barroca, B.

2009-04-01

Urban flood risk mitigation: from vulnerability assessment to resilient city Bruno Barroca1, Damien Serre2 1Laboratory of Urban Engineering, Environment and Building (L G U E H) - Université de Marne-la-Vallée - Pôle Ville, 5, Bd Descartes - Bâtiment Lavoisier - 77454 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 - France 2City of Paris Engineering School, Construction - Environment Department, 15 rue Fénelon, 75010 Paris, France In France, as in Europe and more generally throughout the world, river floods have been increasing in frequency and severity over the last ten years, and there are more instances of rivers bursting their banks, aggravating the impact of the flooding of areas supposedly protected by flood defenses. Despite efforts made to well maintain the flood defense assets, we often observe flood defense failures leading to finally increase flood risk in protected area during major flood events. Furthermore, flood forecasting models, although they benefit continuous improvements, remain partly inaccurate due to uncertainties populated all along data calculation processes. These circumstances obliged stakeholders and the scientific communities to manage flood risk by integrating new concepts like stakes management, vulnerability assessments and more recently urban resilience development. Definitively, the goal is to reduce flood risk by managing of course flood defenses and improving flood forecasting models, but also stakes and vulnerability of flooded areas to achieve urban resilience face to flood events. Vulnerability to flood is essentially concentrated in urban areas. Assessing vulnerability of a city is very difficult. Indeed, urban area is a complex system composed by a sum of technical sub-systems as complex as the urban area itself. Assessing city vulnerability consists in talking into account each sub system vulnerability and integrating all direct and indirect impacts generally depending from city shape and city spatial organization. At this time, although

Concurrent assessment of fish and habitat in warmwater streams in Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Hubert, W.A.; Rahel, F.J.

2006-01-01

Fisheries research and management in North America have focused largely on sport fishes, but native non-game fishes have attracted increased attention due to their declines. The Warmwater Stream Assessment (WSA) was developed to evaluate simultaneously both fish and habitat in Wyoming streams by a process that includes three major components: (1) stream-reach selection and accumulation of existing information, (2) fish and habitat sampling and (3) summarisation and evaluation of fish and habitat information. Fish are sampled by electric fishing or seining and habitat is measured at reach and channel-unit (i.e. pool, run, riffle, side channel, or backwater) scales. Fish and habitat data are subsequently summarised using a data-matrix approach. Hierarchical decision trees are used to assess critical habitat requirements for each fish species expected or found in the reach. Combined measurements of available habitat and the ecology of individual species contribute to the evaluation of the observed fish assemblage. The WSA incorporates knowledge of the fish assemblage and habitat features to enable inferences of factors likely influencing both the fish assemblage and their habitat. The WSA was developed for warmwater streams in Wyoming, but its philosophy, process and conceptual basis may be applied to environmental assessments in other geographical areas. ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Vulnerabilities to climate change of Massachusetts animal species of greatest conservation need

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galbraith, Hector; Morelli, Toni L.

2017-01-01

Over the last decade, the Commonwealth of Massachusetts has addressed the potential and actual impacts of climate change on state flora and fauna. The state’s involvement began in 2007 when, led by the Division of Fisheries and Wildlife (DFW) and assisted by Manomet Center for Con-servation Research, it carried out one of the first habitat vulnerability assessments in North America (Manomet, 2010). The new methods and processes that resulted were later applied to vulnerability assessments in North America and elsewhere. In 2011, the state assisted the North-eastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (NEAFWA) in organizing and leading a pio-neering three-year, thirteen-state research effort to evaluate the vulnerabilities of fish and wild-life habitats to climate change in the northeast, from Maine south to West Virginia (NEAFWA, 2012). This focus on climate change vulnerabilities led to three important early realizations: (1) simply categorizing and scoring vulnerabilities might not lead to better conservation outcomes. It was vital to also understand why some resources were more or less vulnerable to climate change in order to identify potential intervention points on which conservation actions and strategies could be based. (2) simply producing research results was not enough; these results had to be cast as specific conservation actions. Moreover (3), these actions needed to be communicated in a useful form to conservation “actors”, such as state agencies, land trusts, land managers, etc. These real-izations led to the next step on the Commonwealth’s journey to effective conservation in an age of climate change - the Massachusetts Wildlife Climate Action Tool (CAT).

Improving vulnerability models: lessons learned from a comparison between flood and earthquake assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Ruiter, Marleen; Ward, Philip; Daniell, James; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

In a cross-discipline study, an extensive literature review has been conducted to increase the understanding of vulnerability indicators used in both earthquake- and flood vulnerability assessments, and to provide insights into potential improvements of earthquake and flood vulnerability assessments. It identifies and compares indicators used to quantitatively assess earthquake and flood vulnerability, and discusses their respective differences and similarities. Indicators have been categorized into Physical- and Social categories, and further subdivided into (when possible) measurable and comparable indicators. Physical vulnerability indicators have been differentiated to exposed assets such as buildings and infrastructure. Social indicators are grouped in subcategories such as demographics, economics and awareness. Next, two different vulnerability model types have been described that use these indicators: index- and curve-based vulnerability models. A selection of these models (e.g. HAZUS) have been described, and compared on several characteristics such as temporal- and spatial aspects. It appears that earthquake vulnerability methods are traditionally strongly developed towards physical attributes at an object scale and used in vulnerability curve models, whereas flood vulnerability studies focus more on indicators applied to aggregated land-use scales. Flood risk studies could be improved using approaches from earthquake studies, such as incorporating more detailed lifeline and building indicators, and developing object-based vulnerability curve assessments of physical vulnerability, for example by defining building material based flood vulnerability curves. Related to this, is the incorporation of time of the day based building occupation patterns (at 2am most people will be at home while at 2pm most people will be in the office). Earthquake assessments could learn from flood studies when it comes to the refined selection of social vulnerability indicators

DEMONSTRATING APPLICATIONS OF REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This task is designed to respond to 2 Congressional earmarks of $1,000,000 to the Canaan Valley Institute (CVI) to work in close coordination with the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) initiative to develop research and educational tools using integrative technologies to p...

Projected tree species redistribution under climate change: Implications for ecosystem vulnerability across protected areas in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Scott G. Zolkos; Patrick Jantz; Tina Cormier; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel W. McKenney; Scott J. Goetz

2015-01-01

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and...

Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

2011-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

[Research advances in vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change].

PubMed

Zhao, Hui-xia; Wu, Shao-hong; Jiang, Lu-guang

2007-02-01

Climate change with global warming as the sign has been caught great attention by the governments, international organizations, and scientists in the world. Human society and natural ecosystem are both exposed to climate change, and more and more people are waked up by its increasing harm. Vulnerability analysis and assessment are the key and basis for adapting and mitigating climate change, being the highlight in the research fields of climate change and ecology in recent years. The vulnerability assessment of climate change is being carried out in various research fields and on different scales, and much progress has been made. This paper introduced the concept of vulnerability, and summarized the research progress in vulnerability assessment of climate change, with the focus on the frame and methodology of vulnerability assessment of natural ecosystem response to climate change. The existed problems and future prospects in this research area were also discussed.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Ecosystem Vulnerability Review: Proposal of an Interdisciplinary Ecosystem Assessment Approach.

PubMed

Weißhuhn, Peter; Müller, Felix; Wiggering, Hubert

2018-06-01

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem's vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of Science TM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.

Assessing groundwater vulnerability to agrichemical contamination in the Midwest US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Kolpin, D.W.; James, D.E.

1999-01-01

Agrichemicals (herbicides and nitrate) are significant sources of diffuse pollution to groundwater. Indirect methods are needed to assess the potential for groundwater contamination by diffuse sources because groundwater monitoring is too costly to adequately define the geographic extent of contamination at a regional or national scale. This paper presents examples of the application of statistical, overlay and index, and process-based modeling methods for groundwater vulnerability assessments to a variety of data from the Midwest U.S. The principles for vulnerability assessment include both intrinsic (pedologic, climatologic, and hydrogeologic factors) and specific (contaminant and other anthropogenic factors) vulnerability of a location. Statistical methods use the frequency of contaminant occurrence, contaminant concentration, or contamination probability as a response variable. Statistical assessments are useful for defining the relations among explanatory and response variables whether they define intrinsic or specific vulnerability. Multivariate statistical analyses are useful for ranking variables critical to estimating water quality responses of interest. Overlay and index methods involve intersecting maps of intrinsic and specific vulnerability properties and indexing the variables by applying appropriate weights. Deterministic models use process-based equations to simulate contaminant transport and are distinguished from the other methods in their potential to predict contaminant transport in both space and time. An example of a one-dimensional leaching model linked to a geographic information system (GIS) to define a regional metamodel for contamination in the Midwest is included.

Identification and ranking of environmental threats with ecosystem vulnerability distributions.

PubMed

Zijp, Michiel C; Huijbregts, Mark A J; Schipper, Aafke M; Mulder, Christian; Posthuma, Leo

2017-08-24

Responses of ecosystems to human-induced stress vary in space and time, because both stressors and ecosystem vulnerabilities vary in space and time. Presently, ecosystem impact assessments mainly take into account variation in stressors, without considering variation in ecosystem vulnerability. We developed a method to address ecosystem vulnerability variation by quantifying ecosystem vulnerability distributions (EVDs) based on monitoring data of local species compositions and environmental conditions. The method incorporates spatial variation of both abiotic and biotic variables to quantify variation in responses among species and ecosystems. We show that EVDs can be derived based on a selection of locations, existing monitoring data and a selected impact boundary, and can be used in stressor identification and ranking for a region. A case study on Ohio's freshwater ecosystems, with freshwater fish as target species group, showed that physical habitat impairment and nutrient loads ranked highest as current stressors, with species losses higher than 5% for at least 6% of the locations. EVDs complement existing approaches of stressor assessment and management, which typically account only for variability in stressors, by accounting for variation in the vulnerability of the responding ecosystems.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and

Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

River habitat assessment for ecological restoration of Wei River Basin, China.

PubMed

Yang, Tao; Wang, Shuo; Li, Xiaoping; Wu, Ting; Li, Li; Chen, Jia

2018-04-11

As an important composition component of river ecosystems, river habitats must undergo quality assessment to potentially provide scientific basis for river ecological restoration. Substrate composition, habitat complexity, bank erosion degree, river meandering degree, human activity intensity, vegetation buffer width, water quality, and water condition were determined as indicators for river habitat assessment. The comprehensive habitat quality index (CHQI) was established for the Wei River Basin. In addition, the indicator values were determined on the basis of a field investigation at 12 national hydrological stations distributed across the Wei, Jing, and Beiluo Rivers. The analytic hierarchy process was used to determine the indicator weights and thus distinguish the relative importance of the assessment indicator system. Results indicated that the average CHQIs for the Wei, Jing, and Beiluo Rivers were 0.417, 0.508, and 0.304, respectively. The river habitat quality for the three rivers was well. As for the whole river basin, the river habitat quality for 25% of the cross section was very well, the other 25% was well, and the 50% remaining was in critical state. The river habitat quality of the Jing River was better than that of the Wei and Beiluo Rivers.

Revised Methods for Characterizing Stream Habitat in the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fitzpatrick, Faith A.; Waite, Ian R.; D'Arconte, Patricia J.; Meador, Michael R.; Maupin, Molly A.; Gurtz, Martin E.

1998-01-01

Stream habitat is characterized in the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program as part of an integrated physical, chemical, and biological assessment of the Nation's water quality. The goal of stream habitat characterization is to relate habitat to other physical, chemical, and biological factors that describe water-quality conditions. To accomplish this goal, environmental settings are described at sites selected for water-quality assessment. In addition, spatial and temporal patterns in habitat are examined at local, regional, and national scales. This habitat protocol contains updated methods for evaluating habitat in NAWQA Study Units. Revisions are based on lessons learned after 6 years of applying the original NAWQA habitat protocol to NAWQA Study Unit ecological surveys. Similar to the original protocol, these revised methods for evaluating stream habitat are based on a spatially hierarchical framework that incorporates habitat data at basin, segment, reach, and microhabitat scales. This framework provides a basis for national consistency in collection techniques while allowing flexibility in habitat assessment within individual Study Units. Procedures are described for collecting habitat data at basin and segment scales; these procedures include use of geographic information system data bases, topographic maps, and aerial photographs. Data collected at the reach scale include channel, bank, and riparian characteristics.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Drought vulnerability assessment: The case of wheat farmers in Western Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zarafshani, Kiumars; Sharafi, Lida; Azadi, Hossein; Hosseininia, Gholamhossein; De Maeyer, Philippe; Witlox, Frank

2012-12-01

Drought, as a natural and slow-onset phenomenon, creates numerous damages to agricultural communities. As a drought prone area in the Middle East, Iran has currently launched a crisis management approach to mitigate the harmful impacts of drought. However, thus far studies indicate that effective drought management strategies should be designed based upon vulnerability management which can increase farmers' ability to challenge the impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess drought vulnerability across three drought intensities (very high, extremely high, and critical) areas in Western Iran. Accordingly, a survey study was applied and 370 wheat farmers who all experienced drought during 2007-2009 were selected through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. Face to face interviews were used to collect data on vulnerability indices from the farmers. Me-Bar and Valdez's vulnerability formula was applied to assess the vulnerability of wheat farmers during drought. Results revealed that the farmers' vulnerability is influenced mainly by economic, socio-cultural, psychological, technical, and infrastructural factors. The results also indicated that the farmers in Sarpole-Zahab township were most vulnerable compared to those in the Kermanshah township as the least vulnerable. Accordingly, some conclusions and recommendations are drawn for both policy-makers and practitioners who often must prioritize limited resources in the design vulnerability-reducing interventions.

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer (Veneto Region, Italy).

PubMed

Cucchi, Franco; Franceschini, Giuliana; Zini, Luca; Aurighi, Marina

2008-09-01

Maps illustrating the different degrees of vulnerability within a given area are integral to environmental protection and management policies. The assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas is difficult since the type and stage of karst development and the related underground discharge behavior are difficult to determine and quantify. Geographic Information Systems techniques are applied to the evaluation of the vulnerability of an aquifer in the alpine karst area of the Sette Comuni Plateau, in the Veneto Region of northern Italy. The water resources of the studied aquifer are of particular importance to the local communities. This aquifer must therefore be protected from both inappropriate use as well as possible pollution. The SINTACS and SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) vulnerability assessment methods have been utilized here to create the vulnerability map. SINTACS P(RO) K(ARST) is an adaptation of the parametric managerial model (SINTACS) to karst hydrostructures. The vulnerability map reveals vast zones (81% of the analyzed areas) with a high degree of vulnerability. The presence of well-developed karst structures in these highly vulnerable areas facilitate water percolation, thereby enhancing the groundwater vulnerability risk. Only 1.5 of the studied aquifer have extremely high-vulnerability levels, however these areas include all of the major springs utilized for human consumption. This vulnerability map of the Sette Comuni Plateau aquifer is an indispensable tool for both the effective management of water resources and as support to environmental planning in the Sette Comuni Plateau area.

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Arabidze, V.; Varazanashvili, O.; Gugeshashvili, T.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment at a national level in Georgia Nino Tsereteli, Vakhtang Arabidze, Otar Varazanashvili, Tengiz Gugeshashvili The risk always exists when cities are built on. Population growth in cities and urbanization in natural hazard-prone zones leads to infrastructure expansion. The goal of the society is to construct natural hazards resistant infrastructure and minimize the expected losses. This is a complicated task as there is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard and vulnerability. Assessment of vulnerability is vital in risk analysis, as vulnerability is defined in many different ways. Work presented here mostly deals with assessment of infrastructure's and population vulnerability at national level in Georgia. This work was initiated by NATO SFP project "seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus - Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors" and the two work packages WP4 (seismic risk) and WP5 (city scenarios) of risk module of EMME (Earthquake Model of the Middle East Region) project. First step was creation databases (inventory) of elements at risk in GIS. Element at risk were the buildings, population, pipelines. The inventories was studied and Created in GIS for the following categories: Building material, number of stories, number of entrances, condition of building, building period. For pipelines pipe tipe (continous or segmented), material, pipe diameter. Very important is to estimate the initial cost of building for assessment of economic losses. From this purpose the attempt was done and the algorithm of this estimation were prepared taking into account obtained the inventory. Build quality, reliability and durability are of special importance to corresponding state agencies and include different aesthetic, engineering, practical, social, technological and economical aspects. The necessity that all of these aspects satisfy existing normative requirements becomes evident as the building and structures come into exploitation

Assessing vulnerability to drought: identifying underlying factors across Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urquijo, Julia; Gonzalez Tánago, Itziar; Ballesteros, Mario; De Stefano, Lucia

2015-04-01

Drought is considered one of the most severe and damaging natural hazards in terms of people and sectors affected and associated losses. Drought is a normal and recurrent climatic phenomenon that occurs worldwide, although its spatial and temporal characteristics vary significantly among climates. In the case of Europe, in the last thirty years, the region has suffered several drought events that have caused estimated economic damages over a €100 billion and have affected almost 20% of its territory and population. In recent years, there has been a growing awareness among experts and authorities of the need to shift from a reactive crisis approach to a drought risk management approach, as well as of the importance of designing and implementing policies, strategies and plans at country and river basin levels to deal with drought. The identification of whom and what is vulnerable to drought is a central aspect of drought risk mitigation and planning and several authors agree that societal vulnerability often determines drought risk more than the actual precipitation shortfalls. The final aim of a drought vulnerability assessment is to identify the underlying sources of drought impact, in order to develop policy options that help to enhance coping capacity and therefore to prevent drought impact. This study identifies and maps factors underlying vulnerability to drought across Europe. The identification of factors influencing vulnerability starts from the analysis of past drought impacts in four European socioeconomic sectors. This analysis, along with an extensive literature review, led to the selection of vulnerability factors that are both relevant and adequate for the European context. Adopting the IPCC model, vulnerability factors were grouped to describe exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The aggregation of these components has resulted in the mapping of vulnerability to drought across Europe at NUTS02 level. Final results have been compared with

Idiosyncratic responses of grizzly bear habitat to climate change based on projected food resource changes.

PubMed

Roberts, David R; Nielsen, Scott E; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-07-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments for species of conservation concern often use species distribution and ecological niche modeling to project changes in habitat. One of many assumptions of these approaches is that food web dependencies are consistent in time and environmental space. Species at higher trophic levels that rely on the availability of species at lower trophic levels as food may be sensitive to extinction cascades initiated by changes in the habitat of key food resources. Here we assess climate change vulnerability for Ursus arctos (grizzly bears) in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains using projected changes to 17 of the most commonly consumed plant food items. We used presence-absence information from 7088 field plots to estimate ecological niches and to project changes in future distributions of each species. Model projections indicated idiosyncratic responses among food items. Many food items persisted or even increased, although several species were found to be vulnerable based on declines or geographic shifts in suitable habitat. These included Hedysarum alpinum (alpine sweet vetch), a critical spring and autumn root-digging resource when little else is available. Potential habitat loss was also identified for three fruiting species of lower importance to bears: Empetrum nigrum (crowberry), Vaccinium scoparium (grouseberry), and Fragaria virginiana (strawberry). A general trend towards uphill migration of bear foods may result in higher vulnerability to bear populations at low elevations, which are also those that are most likely to have human-bear conflict problems. Regardless, a wide diet breadth of grizzly bears, as well as wide environmental niches of most food items, make climate change a much lower threat to grizzly bears than other bear species such as polar bears and panda bears. We cannot exclude, however, future alterations in human behavior and land use resulting from climate change that may reduce survival rates.

GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

PubMed

Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

2016-03-01

A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of stone masonry structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abo El Ezz, Ahmad

Earthquakes represent major natural hazards that regularly impact the built environment in seismic prone areas worldwide and cause considerable social and economic losses. The high losses incurred following the past destructive earthquakes promoted the need for assessment of the seismic vulnerability and risk of the existing buildings. Many historic buildings in the old urban centers in Eastern Canada such as Old Quebec City are built of stone masonry and represent un-measurable architectural and cultural heritage. These buildings were built to resist gravity loads only and generally offer poor resistance to lateral seismic loads. Seismic vulnerability assessment of stone masonry buildings is therefore the first necessary step in developing seismic retrofitting and pre-disaster mitigation plans. The objective of this study is to develop a set of probability-based analytical tools for efficient seismic vulnerability and uncertainty analysis of stone masonry buildings. A simplified probabilistic analytical methodology for vulnerability modelling of stone masonry building with systematic treatment of uncertainties throughout the modelling process is developed in the first part of this study. Building capacity curves are developed using a simplified mechanical model. A displacement based procedure is used to develop damage state fragility functions in terms of spectral displacement response based on drift thresholds of stone masonry walls. A simplified probabilistic seismic demand analysis is proposed to capture the combined uncertainty in capacity and demand on fragility functions. In the second part, a robust analytical procedure for the development of seismic hazard compatible fragility and vulnerability functions is proposed. The results are given by sets of seismic hazard compatible vulnerability functions in terms of structure-independent intensity measure (e.g. spectral acceleration) that can be used for seismic risk analysis. The procedure is very efficient for

Differences in meiofauna communities with sediment depth are greater than habitat effects on the New Zealand continental margin: implications for vulnerability to anthropogenic disturbance

PubMed Central

Leduc, Daniel; Rowden, Ashley A.; Clark, Malcolm R.; Probert, P. Keith; Berkenbusch, Katrin; Neira, Carlos

2016-01-01

Studies of deep-sea benthic communities have largely focused on particular (macro) habitats in isolation, with few studies considering multiple habitats simultaneously in a comparable manner. Compared to mega-epifauna and macrofauna, much less is known about habitat-related variation in meiofaunal community attributes (abundance, diversity and community structure). Here, we investigated meiofaunal community attributes in slope, canyon, seamount, and seep habitats in two regions on the continental slope of New Zealand (Hikurangi Margin and Bay of Plenty) at four water depths (700, 1,000, 1,200 and 1,500 m). We found that patterns were not the same for each community attribute. Significant differences in abundance were consistent across regions, habitats, water and sediment depths, while diversity and community structure only differed between sediment depths. Abundance was higher in canyon and seep habitats compared with other habitats, while between sediment layer, abundance and diversity were higher at the sediment surface. Our findings suggest that meiofaunal community attributes are affected by environmental factors that operate on micro- (cm) to meso- (0.1–10 km), and regional scales (> 100 km). We also found a weak, but significant, correlation between trawling intensity and surface sediment diversity. Overall, our results indicate that variability in meiofaunal communities was greater at small scale than at habitat or regional scale. These findings provide new insights into the factors controlling meiofauna in these deep-sea habitats and their potential vulnerability to anthropogenic activities. PMID:27441114

Assessing and managing freshwater ecosystems vulnerable to global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.; Drakare, Stina; McKie, Brendan G.; Johnson, Richard K.

2014-01-01

Freshwater ecosystems are important for global biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services. There is consensus in the scientific literature that freshwater ecosystems are vulnerable to the impacts of environmental change, which may trigger irreversible regime shifts upon which biodiversity and ecosystem services may be lost. There are profound uncertainties regarding the management and assessment of the vulnerability of freshwater ecosystems to environmental change. Quantitative approaches are needed to reduce this uncertainty. We describe available statistical and modeling approaches along with case studies that demonstrate how resilience theory can be applied to aid decision-making in natural resources management. We highlight especially how long-term monitoring efforts combined with ecological theory can provide a novel nexus between ecological impact assessment and management, and the quantification of systemic vulnerability and thus the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change.

Livelihood Vulnerability Assessment Of Farmers and Nomads in Eastern Ecotone of Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, J.; Zhang, Y.

2011-12-01

Livelihood vulnerability assessment provides a scientific basis for anti-poverty of people and regional sustainable development in vulnerable area. Although there are massive discussions on concept of vulnerability, it is still difficult to make it quantitative and to carry out comprehensive appraise. Vulnerability assessments based on sustainable livelihood frame are widely accepted in case studies for attentions to vulnerable groups. However, these case studies are always on regional scale and never reflect how climate change affects people's livelihood and adaptive capability of people. It is necessary to seek vulnerable assessment index system and means based on livelihood process of local people. This paper develops a livelihood vulnerability assessment index system on the basis of sustainable livelihood framework and appraises livelihood vulnerability values of 11 townships, using data of 879 sample households. Livelihood vulnerability assessment index system reflects main risks, livelihood assets and adaptation strategies of local people and government. The results show that livelihood vulnerability level of plateau region is higher than that of mountain to plateau region and mountain gorge region. Manzhang Township in plateau region is the most vulnerable township and nomads there cannot cope with risks of climate change, meadow degeneration and herbs degradation. Upper part of mountain to plateau region and the whole plateau region have high livelihood vulnerability values and local nomads would not cope with risks if no measures are taken by government. The driving forces of livelihood vulnerability include strikes of risks and deficiency of livelihood assets and adaptive capability. Farmers and nomads in high mountain gorge region and lower part of mountain to plateau region can cope with these risks, meanwhile, there are more employment opportunities in second and tertiary industries are needed to help them realize livelihood diversification. Therefore

Benthic Assemblages of the Anton Dohrn Seamount (NE Atlantic): Defining Deep-Sea Biotopes to Support Habitat Mapping and Management Efforts with a Focus on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems.

PubMed

Davies, Jaime S; Stewart, Heather A; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E; Jacobs, Colin; Spicer, John; Golding, Neil; Howell, Kerry L

2015-01-01

In 2009 the NW and SE flanks of Anton Dohrn Seamount were surveyed using multibeam echosounder and video ground-truthing to characterise megabenthic biological assemblages (biotopes) and assess those which clearly adhere to the definition of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems, for use in habitat mapping. A combination of multivariate analysis of still imagery and video ground-truthing defined 13 comprehensive descriptions of biotopes that function as mapping units in an applied context. The data reveals that the NW and SE sides of Anton Dohrn Seamount (ADS) are topographically complex and harbour diverse biological assemblages, some of which agree with current definitions of 'listed' habitats of conservation concern. Ten of these biotopes could easily be considered Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems; three coral gardens, four cold-water coral reefs, two xenophyophore communities and one sponge dominated community, with remaining biotopes requiring more detailed assessment. Coral gardens were only found on positive geomorphic features, namely parasitic cones and radial ridges, found both sides of the seamount over a depth of 1311-1740 m. Two cold-water coral reefs (equivalent to summit reef) were mapped on the NW side of the seamount; Lophelia pertusa reef associated with the cliff top mounds at a depth of 747-791 m and Solenosmilia variabilis reef on a radial ridge at a depth of 1318-1351 m. Xenophyophore communities were mapped from both sides of the seamount at a depth of 1099-1770 m and were either associated with geomorphic features or were in close proximity (< 100 m) to them. The sponge dominated community was found on the steep escarpment either side of the seamount over at a depth of 854-1345 m. Multivariate diversity revealed the xenophyophore biotopes to be the least diverse, and a hard substratum biotope characterised by serpulids and the sessile holothurian, Psolus squamatus, as the most diverse.

Benthic Assemblages of the Anton Dohrn Seamount (NE Atlantic): Defining Deep-Sea Biotopes to Support Habitat Mapping and Management Efforts with a Focus on Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems

PubMed Central

Davies, Jaime S.; Stewart, Heather A.; Narayanaswamy, Bhavani E.; Jacobs, Colin; Spicer, John; Golding, Neil; Howell, Kerry L.

2015-01-01

In 2009 the NW and SE flanks of Anton Dohrn Seamount were surveyed using multibeam echosounder and video ground-truthing to characterise megabenthic biological assemblages (biotopes) and assess those which clearly adhere to the definition of Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems, for use in habitat mapping. A combination of multivariate analysis of still imagery and video ground-truthing defined 13 comprehensive descriptions of biotopes that function as mapping units in an applied context. The data reveals that the NW and SE sides of Anton Dohrn Seamount (ADS) are topographically complex and harbour diverse biological assemblages, some of which agree with current definitions of ‘listed’ habitats of conservation concern. Ten of these biotopes could easily be considered Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems; three coral gardens, four cold-water coral reefs, two xenophyophore communities and one sponge dominated community, with remaining biotopes requiring more detailed assessment. Coral gardens were only found on positive geomorphic features, namely parasitic cones and radial ridges, found both sides of the seamount over a depth of 1311–1740 m. Two cold-water coral reefs (equivalent to summit reef) were mapped on the NW side of the seamount; Lophelia pertusa reef associated with the cliff top mounds at a depth of 747–791 m and Solenosmilia variabilis reef on a radial ridge at a depth of 1318-1351 m. Xenophyophore communities were mapped from both sides of the seamount at a depth of 1099–1770 m and were either associated with geomorphic features or were in close proximity (< 100 m) to them. The sponge dominated community was found on the steep escarpment either side of the seamount over at a depth of 854-1345 m. Multivariate diversity revealed the xenophyophore biotopes to be the least diverse, and a hard substratum biotope characterised by serpulids and the sessile holothurian, Psolus squamatus, as the most diverse. PMID:25992572

Study on the Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment in Sanjiang Plain in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Y.; Tang, W. K.; Liu, C.

2012-12-01

The Sanjiang Plain is located in eastern part of China's Heilongjiang Province.It's total area is 109 000 km2, with cultivated land area being 3.6677 million hm2. It is a major national commodity grain base. Rice planting area in Sanjiang Plain has been increasing year by year. Groundwater exploitation is increasing rapidly as a result of rapid increase of paddy field area. It is necessary to research and analyze spatial diversity of groundwater pollution vulnerability for Sanjiang Plain, so as to fulfill the goal of integrated planning, rational utilization of land and water resource, avoiding or minimizing groundwater contamination, and protecting grain security of China. Based on the commonly used DRASTIC method internationally, and according to hydrogeology, land use and other characteristics of Sanjiang Plain, this paper establishes groundwater vulnerability assessment index system. Since the Sanjiang Plain is an area that gives priority to agriculture, and impact of agricultural land and agricultural activity on groundwater vulnerability can not be ignored. Two indicators of agricultural land use rate (L) and population density (P) are increased in the DRASTC index system, the remaining 5 indicators are groundwater depth (D), aquifer net recharge(R), aquifer media type (A), soil type(S), aquifer hydraulic conductivity (C). Taking ArcGis as a calculation analysis platform to assess groundwater vulnerability of the Sanjiang Plain, by using hierarchical analysis method of the fuzzy mathematics method to calculate each index weigh of evaluation vulnerability. This paper applies 6 levels of assessment standard as follows: vulnerability index DI <2 stands for not vulnerable; 2 vulnerable; 4< DI ≤ 5 stands for more vulnerable; 5vulnerable; 7vulnerable; DI> 8 stands for extremely vulnerable. Groundwater vulnerably contaminated area is delineated based on the groundwater vulnerability spatial

An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship-based Control Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

VULNERABILITIES FOR SHIP- BASED CONTROL SYSTEMS by Richard Bensing September 2009 Thesis Advisor: Karen Burke Co-Advisor: George Dinolt...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: An Assessment of Vulnerabilities for Ship- based Control Systems 6. AUTHOR(S) Richard Bensing 5...soft underbelly. Computer- based control systems form the heart of the critical infrastructure, and these control systems are riddled with rampant

Global habitat suitability for framework-forming cold-water corals.

PubMed

Davies, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2011-04-15

Predictive habitat models are increasingly being used by conservationists, researchers and governmental bodies to identify vulnerable ecosystems and species' distributions in areas that have not been sampled. However, in the deep sea, several limitations have restricted the widespread utilisation of this approach. These range from issues with the accuracy of species presences, the lack of reliable absence data and the limited spatial resolution of environmental factors known or thought to control deep-sea species' distributions. To address these problems, global habitat suitability models have been generated for five species of framework-forming scleractinian corals by taking the best available data and using a novel approach to generate high resolution maps of seafloor conditions. High-resolution global bathymetry was used to resample gridded data from sources such as World Ocean Atlas to produce continuous 30-arc second (∼1 km(2)) global grids for environmental, chemical and physical data of the world's oceans. The increased area and resolution of the environmental variables resulted in a greater number of coral presence records being incorporated into habitat models and higher accuracy of model predictions. The most important factors in determining cold-water coral habitat suitability were depth, temperature, aragonite saturation state and salinity. Model outputs indicated the majority of suitable coral habitat is likely to occur on the continental shelves and slopes of the Atlantic, South Pacific and Indian Oceans. The North Pacific has very little suitable scleractinian coral habitat. Numerous small scale features (i.e., seamounts), which have not been sampled or identified as having a high probability of supporting cold-water coral habitat were identified in all ocean basins. Field validation of newly identified areas is needed to determine the accuracy of model results, assess the utility of modelling efforts to identify vulnerable marine ecosystems for

Habitat selection for parasite-free space by hosts of parasitic cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Forsman, J.T.; Martin, T.E.

2009-01-01

Choice of breeding habitat can have a major impact on fitness. Sensitivity of habitat choice to environmental cues predicting reproductive success, such as density of harmful enemy species, should be favored by natural selection. Yet, experimental tests of this idea are in short supply. Brown-headed cowbirds Molothrus ater commonly reduce reproductive success of a wide diversity of birds by parasitizing their nests. We used song playbacks to simulate high cowbird density and tested whether cowbird hosts avoid such areas in habitat selection. Host species that made settlement decisions during manipulations were significantly less abundant in the cowbird treatment as a group. In contrast, hosts that settled before manipulations started and non-host species did not respond to treatments. These results suggest that hosts of cowbirds can use vocal cues to assess parasitism risk among potential habitat patches and avoid high risk habitats. This can affect community structure by affecting habitat choices of species with differential vulnerability.

Assessment of human-natural system characteristics influencing global freshwater supply vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Padowski, Julie C.; Gorelick, Steven M.; Thompson, Barton H.; Rozelle, Scott; Fendorf, Scott

2015-10-01

Global freshwater vulnerability is a product of environmental and human dimensions, however, it is rarely assessed as such. Our approach identifies freshwater vulnerability using four broad categories: endowment, demand, infrastructure, and institutions, to capture impacts on natural and managed water systems within the coupled human-hydrologic environment. These categories are represented by 19 different endogenous and exogenous characteristics affecting water supply vulnerability. By evaluating 119 lower per capita income countries (<10 725), we find that every nation experiences some form of vulnerability. Institutional vulnerability is experienced most commonly, occurring in 44 nations, and 23 countries suffer deficiencies in all four categories. Of these highly vulnerable countries, Jordan is the most vulnerable, reporting the greatest number of characteristics (5 of 19) at critical vulnerability levels, with Yemen and Djibouti nearly as vulnerable. Surprising similarities in vulnerability were also found among geographically disparate nations such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Guatemala. Determining shared patterns of freshwater vulnerability provides insights into why water supply vulnerabilities are manifested in human-water systems at the national scale.

Regulatory Guide on Conducting a Security Vulnerability Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ek, David R.

This document will provide guidelines on conducting a security vulnerability assessment at a facility regulated by the Radiation Protection Centre. The guidelines provide a performance approach assess security effectiveness. The guidelines provide guidance for a review following the objectives outlined in IAEA NSS#11 for Category 1, 2, & 3 sources.

Multiple flood vulnerability assessment approach based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and coordinated development degree model.

PubMed

Yang, Weichao; Xu, Kui; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling; Ma, Chao

2018-05-01

Flood is a serious challenge that increasingly affects the residents as well as policymakers. Flood vulnerability assessment is becoming gradually relevant in the world. The purpose of this study is to develop an approach to reveal the relationship between exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity for better flood vulnerability assessment, based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCEM) and coordinated development degree model (CDDM). The approach is organized into three parts: establishment of index system, assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and multiple flood vulnerability assessment. Hydrodynamic model and statistical data are employed for the establishment of index system; FCEM is used to evaluate exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity; and CDDM is applied to express the relationship of the three components of vulnerability. Six multiple flood vulnerability types and four levels are proposed to assess flood vulnerability from multiple perspectives. Then the approach is applied to assess the spatiality of flood vulnerability in Hainan's eastern area, China. Based on the results of multiple flood vulnerability, a decision-making process for rational allocation of limited resources is proposed and applied to the study area. The study shows that multiple flood vulnerability assessment can evaluate vulnerability more completely, and help decision makers learn more information about making decisions in a more comprehensive way. In summary, this study provides a new way for flood vulnerability assessment and disaster prevention decision. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling sensitive elasmobranch habitats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennino, M. Grazia; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José Marí; a

2013-10-01

Basic information on the distribution and habitat preferences of ecologically important species is essential for their management and protection. In the Mediterranean Sea there is increasing concern over elasmobranch species because their biological (ecological) characteristics make them highly vulnerable to fishing pressure. Their removal could affect the structure and function of marine ecosystems, inducing changes in trophic interactions at the community level due to the selective elimination of predators or prey species, competitors and species replacement. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models are used to map the sensitive habitats of the three most caught elasmobranch species (Galeus melastomus, Scyliorhinus canicula, Etmopterus spinax) in the western Mediterranean Sea, based on fishery-dependent bottom trawl data. Results show that habitats associated with hard substrata and sandy beds, mainly in deep waters and with a high seabed gradient, have a greater probability registering the presence of the studied species than those associated with muddy shallow waters. Temperature and chlorophyll-α concentration show a negative relationship with S. canicula occurrence. Our results identify some of the sensitive habitats for elasmobranchs in the western Mediterranean Sea (GSA06 South), providing essential and easy-to-use interpretation tools, such as predictive distribution maps, with the final aim of improving management and conservation of these vulnerable species.

Assessing intrinsic and specific vulnerability models ability to indicate groundwater vulnerability to groups of similar pesticides: A comparative study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douglas, Steven; Dixon, Barnali; Griffin, Dale W.

2018-01-01

With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class.

Putting community data to work: some understory plants indicate red spruce regeneration habitat

Treesearch

Alison C. Dibble; John C. Brissette; Malcolm L. Hunter

1999-01-01

When harvested, red spruce (Picea rubens) at low elevations is vulnerable to temporary displacement by balsam fir (Abies balsamea) and hardwoods. If indicator plants can be found by which to assess spruce regeneration habitat, then biota dependent on red spruce dominance could benefit. Associations between spruce seedlings (0.1-0.5...

Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change.

PubMed

Markovic, Danijela; Carrizo, Savrina F; Kärcher, Oskar; Walz, Ariane; David, Jonathan N W

2017-09-01

Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning

Integrating Science and Management to Assess Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change

Treesearch

Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Christopher W. Swanston

2017-01-01

We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to...

Vulnerability assessment and risk perception: the case of the Arieş River Middle Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozunu, Al.; Botezan, C.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment is influenced by a number of factors, including risk perception. This paper investigates the vulnerability of people living in the middle basin of the Aries river region, a former mining area, to natural and technologic hazards. The mining industry lead to significant environmental changes, which combined with the social problems caused by its decline (high unemployment rate, low income and old age) raised the level of the vulnerability in the area. This case study is unique, as it includes an evaluation of risk perception and its influence on the social vulnerability and resilience of local communities to disasters. Key words: vulnerability assessment, natural hazards, social vulnerability, risk perception

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India using analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-03-01

Increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surge, tsunami and cyclone, as a consequence of change in global climate, is predicted to have dramatic effects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after-effects of the future events. This paper advocates an Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, Land-use/Land-cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist places) are considered to measure the Physical Vulnerability Index (PVI) as well as the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the final coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone which constitutes 50% of the

Research on vulnerability assessments of the Huanghe (Yellow River) delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

qiao, shuqing; shi, xuefa

2014-05-01

Coastal zone located at the juncture of the sea, river and land, and under the influence of both land and ocean (including atmosphere), especially the sea-level rise and human activities, are vulnerable to environment and ecology. At highest risk are coastal zone of South, Southeast and East Asia with dense populations, low elevations and inadequate adaptive capacity. In China, more than 40% of the population live on the 15% of the land in coastal area and more than 70% cities located around the coastal area. The Chinese coastal region, especially river delta area has been experienced erosion, seawater intrusion and decrease in biodiversity under the combined influence of sea-level rise, tectonic subsidence and flooding. Furthermore, some kinds of human activity, such as land use, building, dam construction, reclamation from the sea and waste dumping strengthen the vulnerability of environment and ecosystem in coastal region. The coastal hazards (e.g. coastal erosion, seawater intrusion, land subsidence) and vulnerability of the Huanghe (Yelllow River) delta area are studied during the past several years. A systematic coastal assessment index is built and an evaluation model is developed using the development platform of Visual studio.Net 2005. The assessment index system includes two parts, inherent (sea level rise rate, elevation, morphology, water and sediment discharge, mean tidal range, mean wave height etc) and specific vulnerability index (population density, GDP, land utilization, protection structures etc). The assessment index are determined the weight using Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Based on the research results, we better understand the current status and future change of coastal vulnerability and hazards, discuss the impact of the natural possess and human activities. Furthermore, we provide defending strategies for coastal zone vulnerability and typical coastal hazards.

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Supply Systems: Status, Gaps and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wheater, H. S.

2015-12-01

Conventional frameworks for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resource systems use cascades of climate and hydrological models to provide 'top-down' projections of future water availability, but these are subject to high uncertainty and are model and scenario-specific. Hence there has been recent interest in 'bottom-up' frameworks, which aim to evaluate system vulnerability to change in the context of possible future climate and/or hydrological conditions. Such vulnerability assessments are generic, and can be combined with updated information from top-down assessments as they become available. While some vulnerability methods use hydrological models to estimate water availability, fully bottom-up schemes have recently been proposed that directly map system vulnerability as a function of feasible changes in water supply characteristics. These use stochastic algorithms, based on reconstruction or reshuffling methods, by which multiple water supply realizations can be generated under feasible ranges of change in water supply conditions. The paper reports recent successes, and points to areas of future improvement. Advances in stochastic modeling and optimization can address some technical limitations in flow reconstruction, while various data mining and system identification techniques can provide possibilities to better condition realizations for consistency with top-down scenarios. Finally, we show that probabilistic and Bayesian frameworks together can provide a potential basis to combine information obtained from fully bottom-up analyses with projections available from climate and/or hydrological models in a fully integrated risk assessment framework for deep uncertainty.

(Non-) robustness of vulnerability assessments to climate change: An application to New Zealand.

PubMed

Fernandez, Mario Andres; Bucaram, Santiago; Renteria, Willington

2017-12-01

Assessments of vulnerability to climate change are a key element to inform climate policy and research. Assessments based on the aggregation of indicators have a strong appeal for their simplicity but are at risk of over-simplification and uncertainty. This paper explores the non-robustness of indicators-based assessments to changes in assumptions on the degree of substitution or compensation between indicators. Our case study is a nationwide assessment for New Zealand. We found that the ranking of geographic areas is sensitive to different parameterisations of the aggregation function, that is, areas that are categorised as highly vulnerable may switch to the least vulnerable category even with respect to the same climate hazards and population groups. Policy implications from the assessments are then compromised. Though indicators-based approaches may help on identifying drivers of vulnerability, there are weak grounds to use them to recommend mitigation or adaptation decisions given the high level of uncertainty because of non-robustness. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network Vulnerability Assessment of the U.S. Crude Pipeline Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

56 Clanton, “Oklahoma Oil Hub Helps Keep Oil Prices from Going Higher.” 57 Donald Furgeson, John Mahoney , and Brett Warfield...Vulnerability Assessment Matrix of the COTH.58 58 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security...Steinhäusler et al., “Security Risks to the Oil and Gas Industry: Terrorist Capabilities.” 71 Furgeson, Mahoney , and Warfield, Security Vulnerability

Flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessment for human life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, T.; Chang, T.; Lai, J.; Hsieh, M.; Tan, Y.; Lin, Y.

2011-12-01

Flood risk assessment is an important issue for the countries suffering tropical cyclones and monsoon. Taiwan is located in the hot zone of typhoon tracks in the Western Pacific. There are three to five typhoons landing Taiwan every year. Typhoons and heavy rainfalls often cause inundation disaster rising with the increase of population and the development of social economy. The purpose of this study is to carry out the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life. Based on the concept that flood risk is composed by flood hazard and vulnerability, a inundation simulation is performed to evaluate the factors of flood hazard for human life according to base flood (100-year return period). The flood depth, velocity and rising ratio are the three factors of flood hazards. Furthermore, the factors of flood vulnerability are identified in terms of human life that are classified into two main factors, residents and environment. The sub factors related to residents are the density of population and the density of vulnerable people including elders, youngers and disabled persons. The sub factors related to environment include the the number of building floors, the locations of buildings, the and distance to rescue center. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is adopted to determine the weights of these factors. The risk matrix is applied to show the risk from low to high based on the evaluation of flood hazards and vulnerabilities. The Tseng-Wen River watershed is selected as the case study because a serious flood was induced by Typhoon Morakot in 2009, which produced a record-breaking rainfall of 2.361mm in 48 hours in the last 50 years. The results of assessing the flood hazard, vulnerability and risk in term of human life could improve the emergency operation for flood disaster to prepare enough relief goods and materials during typhoon landing.

V-DRASTIC: Using visualization to engage policymakers in groundwater vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A.; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo M.; Luna-González, Laura; Juárez, Lourdes; Ortiz-Pérez, Mario A.

2009-06-01

SummaryGroundwater vulnerability mapping is increasingly being used to design aquifer protection and management strategies. This paper presents a dynamic visualization method to groundwater vulnerability mapping. This method—called V-DRASTIC—extends the capacities of DRASTIC, an overlay/index technique that has been applied worldwide to evaluate the condition of hydrogeological factors and determine groundwater vulnerability at regional scales. V-DRASTIC is based upon psychophysics' principles (a theory that describes the people's response to a stimulus) to generate alternative groundwater vulnerability categorization schemes. These are used as inputs in a fuzzy pattern recognition procedure to enable planners, decision makers and stakeholders identify which scheme conveys meaningful information regarding groundwater vulnerability across a territory. V-DRASTIC was applied in the groundwater vulnerability assessment of two urban watersheds in Mexico.

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Quantifying human vulnerability in rural areas: case study of Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stângă, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-06-01

This paper aims to assess the vulnerability at regional level, the model and the proposed indicators being explicitly intended for an essentially rural region, in this case-Tutova Hills (Eastern Romania). Five categories of variables were taken into account to define the vulnerability components: rural habitat, demographic features, agriculture, environmental quality and emergency situations. For each one, five variables were analyzed and ranked based on the level of determination or subordination. In order to ensure the flexibility of the model and to avoid the criteria duplication in assessing vulnerability, only a single indicator of each category was retained and included in analysis: total number of inhabitants, dependency ratio, weight of arable land on slope categories, weight of land under forestry and road accessibility of villages. The selected indicators were mathematically processed in order to maximize their relevance and to unitary express the results in the spread 0-1. Also, values of each indicator were grouped into four classes, corresponding to the level of vulnerability: low, medium, high and very high. A general index was obtained through the integration of vulnerability factors in an equation based on the geometric mean. Spatial analysis was based on features of the MicroImages TNTmips 7.3. software, which allow the vulnerability mapping. This approach argues and states that vulnerability assessment through indicator-based methods can be made only according to the level and scale of analysis and related to natural or human conditions of a region.

Bird and bat species' global vulnerability to collision mortality at wind farms revealed through a trait-based assessment.

PubMed

Thaxter, Chris B; Buchanan, Graeme M; Carr, Jamie; Butchart, Stuart H M; Newbold, Tim; Green, Rhys E; Tobias, Joseph A; Foden, Wendy B; O'Brien, Sue; Pearce-Higgins, James W

2017-09-13

Mitigation of anthropogenic climate change involves deployments of renewable energy worldwide, including wind farms, which can pose a significant collision risk to volant animals. Most studies into the collision risk between species and wind turbines, however, have taken place in industrialized countries. Potential effects for many locations and species therefore remain unclear. To redress this gap, we conducted a systematic literature review of recorded collisions between birds and bats and wind turbines within developed countries. We related collision rate to species-level traits and turbine characteristics to quantify the potential vulnerability of 9538 bird and 888 bat species globally. Avian collision rate was affected by migratory strategy, dispersal distance and habitat associations, and bat collision rates were influenced by dispersal distance. For birds and bats, larger turbine capacity (megawatts) increased collision rates; however, deploying a smaller number of large turbines with greater energy output reduced total collision risk per unit energy output, although bat mortality increased again with the largest turbines. Areas with high concentrations of vulnerable species were also identified, including migration corridors. Our results can therefore guide wind farm design and location to reduce the risk of large-scale animal mortality. This is the first quantitative global assessment of the relative collision vulnerability of species groups with wind turbines, providing valuable guidance for minimizing potentially serious negative impacts on biodiversity. © 2017 The Author(s).

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

6 CFR 27.240 - Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CHEMICAL FACILITY ANTI-TERRORISM STANDARDS Chemical Facility Security Program § 27.240 Review and approval of security vulnerability assessments. (a) Review and Approval. The Department will review and... 6 Domestic Security 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Review and approval of security vulnerability...

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared this draft report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using San Francisco Bay’s salt marsh and mudflat ecosystems as a demonstration. N/A

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia’s Threatened Species

PubMed Central

Lee, Jasmine R.; Maggini, Ramona; Taylor, Martin F. J.; Fuller, Richard A.

2015-01-01

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species’ vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia’s threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species. PMID:26017785

[Applications of habitat equivalency analysis in ecological damage assessment of oil spill incident].

PubMed

Yang, Yin; Han, Da-xiong; Wang, Hai-yan

2011-08-01

Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) is one of the methods commonly used by U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in natural resources damage assessment, but rarely applied in China. Based on the theory of HEA and the assessment practices of domestic oil spill incidents, a modification on the HEA was made in this paper, and applied to calculate the habitat value in oil spill incidents. According to the data collected from an oil spill incident in China, the modified HEA was applied in a case study to scale the compensatory-restoration. By introducing the ecological service equivalent factor to transfer various habitats, it was achieved to value of the injured habitats in ecological damage assessment of oil spill incident.

The use of climate information in vulnerability assessments.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This memorandum focuses on the use of climate information when performing a vulnerability : assessment, a topic that was discussed at the Newark Pilot Peer Exchange Workshop on May 4-5, : 2011. The memorandum describes several sources of climate info...

Rapid Assessment of Seismic Vulnerability in Palestinian Refugee Camps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Dabbeek, Jalal N.; El-Kelani, Radwan J.

Studies of historical and recorded earthquakes in Palestine demonstrate that damaging earthquakes are occurring frequently along the Dead Sea Transform: Earthquake of 11 July 1927 (ML 6.2), Earthquake of 11 February 2004 (ML 5.2). In order to reduce seismic vulnerability of buildings, losses in lives, properties and infrastructures, an attempt was made to estimate the percentage of damage degrees and losses at selected refugee camps: Al Ama`ri, Balata and Dhaishe. Assessing the vulnerability classes of building structures was carried out according to the European Macro-Seismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) and the Fedral Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The rapid assessment results showed that very heavy structural and non structural damages will occur in the common buildings of the investigated Refugee Camps (many buildings will suffer from damages grades 4 and 5). Bad quality of buildings in terms of design and construction, lack of uniformity, absence of spaces between the building and the limited width of roads will definitely increase the seismic vulnerability under the influence of moderate-strong (M 6-7) earthquakes in the future.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability by applying the modified DRASTIC model in Beihai City, China.

PubMed

Wu, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; Ma, Chuanming

2018-05-01

This study assesses vulnerability of groundwater to pollution in Beihai City, China, as a support of groundwater resource protection. The assessment result not only objectively reflects potential possibility of groundwater to contamination but also provides scientific basis for the planning and utilization of groundwater resources. This study optimizes the parameters consisting of natural factors and human factors upon the DRASTIC model and modifies the ratings of these parameters, based on the local environmental conditions for the study area. And a weight of each parameter is assigned by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to reduce the subjectivity of humans to vulnerability assessment. The resulting scientific ratings and weights of modified DRASTIC model (AHP-DRASTLE model) contribute to obtain the more realistic assessment of vulnerability of groundwater to contaminant. The comparison analysis validates the accuracy and rationality of the AHP-DRASTLE model and shows it suits the particularity of the study area. The new assessment method (AHP-DRASTLE model) can provide a guide for other scholars to assess the vulnerability of groundwater to contamination. The final vulnerability map for the AHP-DRASTLE model shows four classes: highest (2%), high (29%), low (55%), and lowest (14%). The vulnerability map serves as a guide for decision makers on groundwater resource protection and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

Vulnerability to climate change of Anolis allisoni in the mangrove habitats of Banco Chinchorro Islands, Mexico.

PubMed

Medina, Marlin; Fernández, Jimena B; Charruau, Pierre; de la Cruz, Fausto Méndez; Ibargüengoytía, Nora

2016-05-01

As niche specialist species, lizards from tropical environments are characterized by a low tolerance and high physiological sensitivity to temperature changes. The extent of vulnerability to thermal changes depends on the lizard's physiological plasticity to adjust the environmental changes. Herein we studied the thermal biology of Anolis allisoni, an endemic arboreal lizard from the tropical islands of the Banco Chinchorro Biosphere Reserve, Mexico, carried out during April and May 2012 and April 2014. We report field body (Tb) and preferred body temperatures in the laboratory (Tpref), operative temperatures (Te) and restriction of hours of activity. Anolis allisoni showed high and identical Tb and Tpref (33°C), not significantly different than the mean Te (32.15°C). The effectiveness of thermoregulation (E=-0.30) and the analysis of hours of restriction suggested that the high temperatures of Te (40-62.5°C) registered at midday (from 12:00 to 15:00) of A. allisoni habitat are hostile and force lizards to take refuge during a period of 3h of their daily time of activity. The scarcity of opportunities to find alternative refuges for thermoregulation in Banco Chinchorro point out the vulnerability of A. allisoni and the risk of local extinction when considering future predictions of increase in global environmental temperatures. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

An holistic approach to beach erosion vulnerability assessment.

PubMed

Alexandrakis, George; Poulos, Serafim Ε

2014-08-15

Erosion is a major threat for coasts worldwide, beaches in particular, which constitute one of the most valuable coastal landforms. Vulnerability assessments related to beach erosion may contribute to planning measures to counteract erosion by identifying, quantifying and ranking vulnerability. Herein, we present a new index, the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI), which combines simplicity in calculations, easily obtainable data and low processing capacity. This approach provides results not only for different beaches, but also for different sectors of the same beach and enables the identification of the relative significance of the processes involved. It functions through the numerical approximation of indicators that correspond to the mechanisms related to the processes that control beach evolution, such as sediment availability, wave climate, beach morhodynamics and sea level change. The BVI is also intended to be used as a managerial tool for beach sustainability, including resilience to climate change impact on beach erosion.

An atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework for environment management and protection based on CAMx.

PubMed

Zhang, Yang; Shen, Jing; Li, Yu

2018-02-01

This paper presents an atmospheric vulnerability assessment framework based on CAMx that should be helpful to assess potential impacts of changes in human, atmospheric environment, and social economic elements of atmospheric vulnerability. It is also a useful and effective tool that can provide policy-guidance for environmental protection and management to reduce the atmospheric vulnerability. The developed framework was applied to evaluate the atmospheric environment vulnerability of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region for verification. The results indicated that regional disparity of the atmospheric vulnerability existed in the study site. More specifically, the central and southern regions show more atmospheric environment vulnerability than the northern regions. The impact factors of atmospheric environment vulnerability in the BTH region mainly derived from increasing population press, frequently unfavorable meteorological conditions, extensive economic growth of secondary industry, increased environmental pollution, and accelerating population aging. The framework shown in this paper is an interpretative and heuristic tool for a better understanding of atmospheric vulnerability. This framework can also be replicated at different spatial and temporal scales using context-specific datasets to straightly support environmental managers with decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of shallow aquifers of the sedimentary basin of southwestern Nigeria

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The shallow groundwater of the multi-layered sedimentary basin aquifer of southwestern Nigeria was assessed based on its intrinsic vulnerability property. The vulnerability evaluation involves determining the protective cover and infiltration condition of the unsaturated zone in the basin. This was achieved using the PI (P stands for protective cover effectiveness of the overlying lithology and I indicates the degree of infiltration bypass) vulnerability method of the European vulnerability approach. The PI method specifically measures the protection cover and the degree to which the protective cover is bypassed. Intrinsic parameters assessed were the subsoil, lithology, topsoil, recharge and fracturing for the protective cover. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of topsoil, infiltration processes and the lateral surface and subsurface flow were evaluated for the infiltration bypassed. The results show moderate to very low vulnerability areas. Low vulnerability areas were characterised by lithology with massive sandstone and limestone, subsoils of sandy loam texture, high slopes and high depth to water table. The moderate vulnerability areas were characterised by high rainfall and high recharge, low water table, unconsolidated sandstones and alluvium lithology. The intrinsic vulnerability properties shown in vulnerability maps will be a useful tool in planning and monitoring land use activities that can be of impact in groundwater pollution.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khresat, Sa'eb; Shraidaeh, Fadi; Maddat, Amer

2015-04-01

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Jordan. In particular, the combined effects of climate change and water scarcity threaten to affect food and water resources that are critical for livelihoods in Jordan. This is especially true for those communities who live in the dryland area in the country and who rely wholly on rain-fed agriculture. The exact nature and extent of the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation distribution pattern remain uncertain and it is the poor and vulnerable who will be the most susceptible to climate change adverse effects. A vulnerability assessment of rain fed agriculture to climate change and variability in semi-arid parts of Jordan was conducted in 2014. The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability and resilience of the most vulnerable groups where rainfed and irrigated agriculture is practiced. Also, the study focused on quantifying the impacts on agricultural productivity in response to climate change. This will help policymakers and researchers better understand and anticipate the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture and on vulnerable communities in Jordan. Also, it will provide them with tools to identify and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The data used includes; Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Those pathways were used for climate modeling. A decision support system (DSSAT) for agricultural production was used to assess the impact of climate changes on agricultural production. This approach was used for the Identification of climate change risk and their impacts on Agriculture. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of farmers and crops to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their

Coastal vulnerability assessment using Fuzzy Logic and Bayesian Belief Network approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valentini, Emiliana; Nguyen Xuan, Alessandra; Filipponi, Federico; Taramelli, Andrea

2017-04-01

Natural hazards such as sea surge are threatening low-lying coastal plains. In order to deal with disturbances a deeper understanding of benefits deriving from ecosystem services assessment, management and planning can contribute to enhance the resilience of coastal systems. In this frame assessing current and future vulnerability is a key concern of many Systems Of Systems SOS (social, ecological, institutional) that deals with several challenges like the definition of Essential Variables (EVs) able to synthesize the required information, the assignment of different weight to be attributed to each considered variable, the selection of method for combining the relevant variables. It is widely recognized that ecosystems contribute to human wellbeing and then their conservation increases the resilience capacities and could play a key role in reducing climate related risk and thus physical and economic losses. A way to fully exploit ecosystems potential, i.e. their so called ecopotential (see H2020 EU funded project "ECOPOTENTIAL"), is the Ecosystem based Adaptation (EbA): the use of ecosystem services as part of an adaptation strategy. In order to provide insight in understanding regulating ecosystem services to surge and which variables influence them and to make the best use of available data and information (EO products, in situ data and modelling), we propose a multi-component surge vulnerability assessment, focusing on coastal sandy dunes as natural barriers. The aim is to combine together eco-geomorphological and socio-economic variables with the hazard component on the base of different approaches: 1) Fuzzy Logic; 2) Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN). The Fuzzy Logic approach is very useful to get a spatialized information and it can easily combine variables coming from different sources. It provides information on vulnerability moving along-shore and across-shore (beach-dune transect), highlighting the variability of vulnerability conditions in the spatial

The influence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors on the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti larval habitats.

PubMed

De Azevedo, Thiago S; Bourke, Brian Patrick; Piovezan, Rafael; Sallum, Maria Anice M

2018-05-08

We addressed the potential associations among the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, the presence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors. Data on larval habitats were collected in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2006, and spatial and temporal variations were analysed using a wavelet-based approach. We quantified urban heat islands by calculating surface temperatures using the results of wavelet analyses and grey level transformation from Thematic Mapper images (Landsat 5). Ae. aegypti larval habitats were geo-referenced corresponding to the wavelet analyses to test the potential association between geographical distribution of habitats and surface temperature. In an inhomogeneous spatial point process, we estimated the frequency of occurrence of larval habitats in relation to temperature. The São Paulo State Social Vulnerability Index in the municipality of Santa Barbára d'Oeste was used to test the potential association between presence of larval habitats and social vulnerability. We found abundant Ae. aegypti larval habitats in areas of higher surface temperature and social vulnerability and fewer larval habitats in areas with lower surface temperature and social vulnerability.

How to Assess Vulnerabilities of Water Policies to Global Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, A.; Haasnoot, M.; Weijs, S.

2017-12-01

Water managers are confronted with uncertainties arising from hydrological, societal, economical and political drivers. To manage these uncertainties two paradigms have been identified: top-down and bottom-up approaches. Top-down or prediction-based approaches use socio-economic scenarios together with a discrete set of GCM projections (often downscaled) to assess the expected impact of drivers and policies on water resource system through various hydrological and social systems models. Adaptation strategies to alleviate these impacts are then identified and tested against the scenarios. To address GCM and downscaling uncertainties, these approaches put more focus on climate predictions, rather than the decision problem itself. Triggered by the wish to have a more scenario-neutral approach and address downscaling uncertainties, recent analyses have been shifted towards vulnerability-based (bottom-up or decision-centric) approaches. They begin at the local scale by addressing socio-economic responses to climate, often involving stakeholder's input; identify vulnerabilities under a larger sample of plausible futures and evaluate sensitivity and robustness of possible adaptation options. Several bottom-up approaches have emerged so far and are increasingly recommended. Fundamentally they share several core ideas, however, subtle differences exist in vulnerability assessment, visualization tools for exploring vulnerabilities and computational methods used for identifying robust water policies. Through this study, we try to identify how these approaches are progressing, how the climate and non-climate uncertainties are being confronted and how to integrate existing and new tools. We find that choice of a method may depend on the number of vulnerability drivers identified and type of threshold levels (environmental conditions or policy objectives) defined. Certain approaches are suited well for assessing adaptive capacities, tipping points and sequencing of decisions

Linking local vulnerability to climatic hazard damage assessment for integrated river basin management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hung, Hung-Chih; Liu, Yi-Chung; Chien, Sung-Ying

2015-04-01

1. Background Major portions of areas in Asia are expected to increase exposure and vulnerability to climate change and weather extremes due to rapid urbanization and overdevelopment in hazard-prone areas. To prepare and confront the potential impacts of climate change and related hazard risk, many countries have implemented programs of integrated river basin management. This has led to an impending challenge for the police-makers in many developing countries to build effective mechanism to assess how the vulnerability distributes over river basins, and to understand how the local vulnerability links to climatic (climate-related) hazard damages and risks. However, the related studies have received relatively little attention. This study aims to examine whether geographic localities characterized by high vulnerability experience significantly more damages owing to onset weather extreme events at the river basin level, and to explain what vulnerability factors influence these damages or losses. 2. Methods and data An indicator-based assessment framework is constructed with the goal of identifying composite indicators (including exposure, biophysical, socioeconomic, land-use and adaptive capacity factors) that could serve as proxies for attributes of local vulnerability. This framework is applied by combining geographical information system (GIS) techniques with multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate and map integrated vulnerability to climatic hazards across river basins. Furthermore, to explain the relationship between vulnerability factors and disaster damages, we develop a disaster damage model (DDM) based on existing disaster impact theory. We then synthesize a Zero-Inflated Poisson regression model with a Tobit regression analysis to identify and examine how the disaster impacts and vulnerability factors connect to typhoon disaster damages and losses. To illustrate the proposed methodology, the study collects data on the vulnerability attributes of

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

Coastal vulnerability assessment of Puducherry coast, India, using the analytical hierarchical process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani Murali, R.; Ankita, M.; Amrita, S.; Vethamony, P.

2013-12-01

As a consequence of change in global climate, an increased frequency of natural hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis and cyclones, is predicted to have dramatic affects on the coastal communities and ecosystems by virtue of the devastation they cause during and after their occurrence. The tsunami of December 2004 and the Thane cyclone of 2011 caused extensive human and economic losses along the coastline of Puducherry and Tamil Nadu. The devastation caused by these events highlighted the need for vulnerability assessment to ensure better understanding of the elements causing different hazards and to consequently minimize the after- effects of the future events. This paper demonstrates an analytical hierarchical process (AHP)-based approach to coastal vulnerability studies as an improvement to the existing methodologies for vulnerability assessment. The paper also encourages the inclusion of socio-economic parameters along with the physical parameters to calculate the coastal vulnerability index using AHP-derived weights. Seven physical-geological parameters (slope, geomorphology, elevation, shoreline change, sea level rise, significant wave height and tidal range) and four socio-economic factors (population, land use/land cover (LU/LC), roads and location of tourist areas) are considered to measure the physical vulnerability index (PVI) as well as the socio-economic vulnerability index (SVI) of the Puducherry coast. Based on the weights and scores derived using AHP, vulnerability maps are prepared to demarcate areas with very low, medium and high vulnerability. A combination of PVI and SVI values are further utilized to compute the coastal vulnerability index (CVI). Finally, the various coastal segments are grouped into the 3 vulnerability classes to obtain the coastal vulnerability map. The entire coastal extent between Muthiapet and Kirumampakkam as well as the northern part of Kalapet is designated as the high vulnerability zone, which constitutes 50% of the

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION: EVALUATION OF INTEGRATION METHODS AND ASSESSMENTS RESULTS

EPA Science Inventory

This report describes methods for quantitative regional assessment developed by the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program. The goal of ReVA is to develop regional-scale assessments of the magnitude, extent, distribution, and uncertainty of current and anticipated envir...

Ranking terrestrial vertebrate species for utility in biomonitoring and vulnerability to environmental contaminants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, N.H.; Rattner, B.A.

2003-01-01

The measurement of contaminant tissue concentrations or exposure-related effects in biota has been used extensively to monitor pollution and environmental health. Terrestrial vertebrates have historically been an important group of species in such evaluations, not only because many are excellent sentinels of environmental contamination, but also because they are valued natural resources in their own right that may be adversely affected by toxicant exposure. Selection of appropriate vertebrates for biomonitoring studies frequently relies on expert opinion, although a few rigorous schemes are in use for predicting vulnerability of birds to the adverse effects of petroleum crude oil. A Utility Index that ranks terrestrial vertebrate species as potential sentinels of contaminants in a region, and a Vulnerability Index that assesses the threat of specific groups of contaminants to these species, have been developed to assist decision makers in risk assessments of persistent organic pollutants, cholinesterase-inhibiting pesticides, petroleum crude oil, mercury, and lead shot. Twenty-five terrestrial vertebrate species commonly found in Atlantic Coast estuarine habitat were ranked for their utility as biomonitors of contamination and their vulnerability to pollutants in this region. No single species, taxa or class of vertebrates was found to be an ideal sentinel for all groups of contaminants. Although birds have overwhelmingly been used to monitor contaminants compared to other terrestrial vertebrate classes, the non-migratory nature and dietary habits of the snapping turtle and mink consistently resulted in ranking these species excellent sentinels as well. Vulnerability of Atlantic Coast populations of these species varied considerably among groups of contaminants. Usually a particular species was found to be at high risk to only one or two groups of contaminants, although a noteworthy exception is the bald eagle that is highly vulnerable to all five of the

Model development for the assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in conservation planning.

PubMed

Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Chaplin-Kramer, Becky; Mandle, Lisa; Ziv, Guy; Acuña, Vicenç

2016-01-01

There is a growing pressure of human activities on natural habitats, which leads to biodiversity losses. To mitigate the impact of human activities, environmental policies are developed and implemented, but their effects are commonly not well understood because of the lack of tools to predict the effects of conservation policies on habitat quality and/or diversity. We present a straightforward model for the simultaneous assessment of terrestrial and aquatic habitat quality in river basins as a function of land use and anthropogenic threats to habitat that could be applied under different management scenarios to help understand the trade-offs of conservation actions. We modify the InVEST model for the assessment of terrestrial habitat quality and extend it to freshwater habitats. We assess the reliability of the model in a severely impaired basin by comparing modeled results to observed terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity data. Estimated habitat quality is significantly correlated with observed terrestrial vascular plant richness (R(2)=0.76) and diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates (R(2)=0.34), as well as with ecosystem functions such as in-stream phosphorus retention (R(2)=0.45). After that, we analyze different scenarios to assess the suitability of the model to inform changes in habitat quality under different conservation strategies. We believe that the developed model can be useful to assess potential levels of biodiversity, and to support conservation planning given its capacity to forecast the effects of management actions in river basins. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment of the Pingtung Plain in Southern Taiwan.

PubMed

Liang, Ching-Ping; Jang, Cheng-Shin; Liang, Cheng-Wei; Chen, Jui-Sheng

2016-11-23

In the Pingtung Plain of southern Taiwan, elevated levels of NO₃ - -N in groundwater have been reported. Therefore, efforts for assessing groundwater vulnerability are required as part of the critical steps to prevent and control groundwater pollution. This study makes a groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Pingtung Plain using an improved overlay and index-based DRASTIC model. The improvement of the DRASTIC model is achieved by reassigning the weighting coefficients of the factors in this model with the help of a discriminant analysis statistical method. The analytical results obtained from the improved DRASTIC model provide a reliable prediction for use in groundwater vulnerability assessment to nitrate pollution and can correctly identify the groundwater protection zones in the Pingtung Plain. Moreover, the results of the sensitivity analysis conducted for the seven parameters in the improved DRASTIC model demonstrate that the aquifer media (A) is the most sensitive factor when the nitrate-N concentration is below 2.5 mg/L. For the cases where the nitrate-N concentration is above 2.5 mg/L, the aquifer media (A) and net recharge (R) are the two most important factors.

Lyme borreliosis habitat assessment.

PubMed

Gray, J S; Kahl, O; Robertson, J N; Daniel, M; Estrada-Peña, A; Gettinby, G; Jaenson, T G; Jensen, P; Jongejan, F; Korenberg, E; Kurtenbach, K; Zeman, P

1998-03-01

Tick ecologists throughout Europe provided descriptions of Lyme borreliosis habitats according to a standardised format and data for 105 habitats in 16 countries were received. The data showed that high risk situations, as defined by the presence of large numbers of B. burgdorferi sensu lato-infected nymphal I. ricinus, occur in heterogeneous deciduous woodland, usually with a recreational function and with a diverse fauna, usually including deer. Large numbers of ticks occurred in some other habitats, but infection prevalence was usually low. The situation for adult I. ricinus was similar but less clearly defined. Tick infection rates were found to be lower in western Europe than in the east, and the infection rate in I. persulcatus, the most easterly vector species, was markedly higher than in I. ricinus. In the vast majority of habitats the infection rate in adult I. ricinus was greater than in nymphs. Larvae were rarely found to be infected.

Using urban forest assessment tools to model bird habitat potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lerman, Susannah B.; Nislow, Keith H.; Nowak, David J.; DeStefano, Stephen; King, David I.; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd

2014-01-01

The alteration of forest cover and the replacement of native vegetation with buildings, roads, exotic vegetation, and other urban features pose one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. As more land becomes slated for urban development, identifying effective urban forest wildlife management tools becomes paramount to ensure the urban forest provides habitat to sustain bird and other wildlife populations. The primary goal of this study was to integrate wildlife suitability indices to an existing national urban forest assessment tool, i-Tree. We quantified available habitat characteristics of urban forests for ten northeastern U.S. cities, and summarized bird habitat relationships from the literature in terms of variables that were represented in the i-Tree datasets. With these data, we generated habitat suitability equations for nine bird species representing a range of life history traits and conservation status that predicts the habitat suitability based on i-Tree data. We applied these equations to the urban forest datasets to calculate the overall habitat suitability for each city and the habitat suitability for different types of land-use (e.g., residential, commercial, parkland) for each bird species. The proposed habitat models will help guide wildlife managers, urban planners, and landscape designers who require specific information such as desirable habitat conditions within an urban management project to help improve the suitability of urban forests for birds.

A System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) to Climate Change

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2011-01-01

Sustained conservation of species requires integration of future climate change effects, but few tools exist to assist managers. The System for Assessing Vulnerability of Species (SAVS) identifies the relative vulnerability or resilience of vertebrate species to climate change. Designed for managers, the SAVS is an easily applied tool that uses a questionnaire of 22...

Assessing the Vulnerability of Eco-Environmental Health to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Tong, Shilu; Mather, Peter; Fitzgerald, Gerry; McRae, David; Verrall, Ken; Walker, Dylan

2010-01-01

There is an urgent need to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. This paper aims to provide an overview of current research, to identify knowledge gaps, and to propose future research needs in this challenging area. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting and will, in the future, have more (mostly adverse) impacts on ecosystems. Ecosystem degradation, particularly the decline of the life support systems, will undoubtedly affect human health and wellbeing. Therefore, it is important to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change, and to identify appropriate adaptation strategies to minimize the impact of climate change. PMID:20616990

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams.

PubMed

McDonnell, T C; Sloat, M R; Sullivan, T J; Dolloff, C A; Hessburg, P F; Povak, N A; Jackson, W A; Sams, C

2015-01-01

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on national forest lands in the southern Appalachian Mountain region. The goal of this study was to help watershed managers identify and assess stream reaches that are potentially vulnerable to warming, acidification, or both. To our knowledge, these results represent the first regional assessment of aquatic habitat suitability with respect to the combined effects of stream water temperature and acid-base status in the United States. Statistical models were developed to predict July mean daily maximum water temperatures and air-water temperature relations to determine potential changes in future stream water temperatures. The length of stream considered suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive species, based on temperature and acid neutralizing capacity thresholds of 20°C and 50 μeq/L, was variable throughout the national forests considered. Stream length displaying temperature above 20°C was generally more than five times greater than the length predicted to have acid neutralizing capacity below 50 μeq/L. It was uncommon for these two stressors to occur within the same stream segment. Results suggested that species' distributional shifts to colder, higher elevation habitats under a warming climate can be constrained by acidification of headwater streams. The approach used in this study can be applied to evaluate climate change impacts to stream water resources in other regions.

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

PubMed Central

Jackson, W. A; Sams, C.

2015-01-01

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on national forest lands in the southern Appalachian Mountain region. The goal of this study was to help watershed managers identify and assess stream reaches that are potentially vulnerable to warming, acidification, or both. To our knowledge, these results represent the first regional assessment of aquatic habitat suitability with respect to the combined effects of stream water temperature and acid-base status in the United States. Statistical models were developed to predict July mean daily maximum water temperatures and air-water temperature relations to determine potential changes in future stream water temperatures. The length of stream considered suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive species, based on temperature and acid neutralizing capacity thresholds of 20°C and 50 μeq/L, was variable throughout the national forests considered. Stream length displaying temperature above 20°C was generally more than five times greater than the length predicted to have acid neutralizing capacity below 50 μeq/L. It was uncommon for these two stressors to occur within the same stream segment. Results suggested that species’ distributional shifts to colder, higher elevation habitats under a warming climate can be constrained by acidification of headwater streams. The approach used in this study can be applied to evaluate climate change impacts to stream water resources in other regions. PMID:26247361

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanmo; Minor, Emily S.; Lee, Dowon; Park, Chan-Ryul

2016-02-01

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California.

PubMed

Shriber, Jennifer; Conlon, Kathryn C; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z; Bell, Jesse E

2017-06-23

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, "unsupervised" and "supervised", were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000-2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated ( p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations ( p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability.

Assessment of Vulnerability to Coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California

PubMed Central

Conlon, Kathryn C.; Benedict, Kaitlin; McCotter, Orion Z.; Bell, Jesse E.

2017-01-01

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and California. Its incidence has increased, potentially due in part to the effects of changing climatic variables on fungal growth and spore dissemination. This study aims to quantify the county-level vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis in Arizona and California and to assess the relationships between population vulnerability and climate variability. The variables representing exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity were combined to calculate county level vulnerability indices. Three methods were used: (1) principal components analysis; (2) quartile weighting; and (3) percentile weighting. Two sets of indices, “unsupervised” and “supervised”, were created. Each index was correlated with coccidioidomycosis incidence data from 2000–2014. The supervised percentile index had the highest correlation; it was then correlated with variability measures for temperature, precipitation, and drought. The supervised percentile index was significantly correlated (p < 0.05) with coccidioidomycosis incidence in both states. Moderate, positive significant associations (p < 0.05) were found between index scores and climate variability when both states were concurrently analyzed and when California was analyzed separately. This research adds to the body of knowledge that could be used to target interventions to vulnerable counties and provides support for the hypothesis that population vulnerability to coccidioidomycosis is associated with climate variability. PMID:28644403

Comparison of Two Vegetation Height Methods for Assessing Greater Sage-Grouse Seasonal Habitat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The 2015 Sage-Grouse Habitat Assessment Framework (HAF) was developed to evaluate habitat quality for sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.), with the greater sage-grouse (C. urophasianus) as the primary focus of HAF evaluations and basis of the indicators in the HAF. Site-scale assessments of sage-grouse ...

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brittingham, Margaret C.; Maloney, Kelly O.; Farag, Aïda M.; Harper, David D.; Bowen, Zachary H.

2014-01-01

. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

Ecological risks of shale oil and gas development to wildlife, aquatic resources and their habitats.

PubMed

Brittingham, Margaret C; Maloney, Kelly O; Farag, Aïda M; Harper, David D; Bowen, Zachary H

2014-10-07

. Examples include core forest habitat and forest specialists, sagebrush habitat and specialists, vernal pond inhabitants and stream biota. We suggest five general areas of research and monitoring that could aid in development of effective guidelines and policies to minimize negative impacts and protect vulnerable species and ecosystems: (1) spatial analyses, (2) species-based modeling, (3) vulnerability assessments, (4) ecoregional assessments, and (5) threshold and toxicity evaluations.

The Importance of Biologically Relevant Microclimates in Habitat Suitability Assessments

PubMed Central

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M. Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30°C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10°C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive. PMID:25115894

The importance of biologically relevant microclimates in habitat suitability assessments.

PubMed

Varner, Johanna; Dearing, M Denise

2014-01-01

Predicting habitat suitability under climate change is vital to conserving biodiversity. However, current species distribution models rely on coarse scale climate data, whereas fine scale microclimate data may be necessary to assess habitat suitability and generate predictive models. Here, we evaluate disparities between temperature data at the coarse scale from weather stations versus fine-scale data measured in microhabitats required for a climate-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). We collected two years of temperature data in occupied talus habitats predicted to be suitable (high elevation) and unsuitable (low elevation) by the bioclimatic envelope approach. At low elevations, talus surface and interstitial microclimates drastically differed from ambient temperatures measured on-site and at a nearby weather station. Interstitial talus temperatures were frequently decoupled from high ambient temperatures, resulting in instantaneous disparities of over 30 °C between these two measurements. Microhabitat temperatures were also highly heterogeneous, such that temperature measurements within the same patch of talus were not more correlated than measurements at distant patches. An experimental manipulation revealed that vegetation cover may cool the talus surface by up to 10 °C during the summer, which may contribute to this spatial heterogeneity. Finally, low elevation microclimates were milder and less variable than typical alpine habitat, suggesting that, counter to species distribution model predictions, these seemingly unsuitable habitats may actually be better refugia for this species under climate change. These results highlight the importance of fine-scale microhabitat data in habitat assessments and underscore the notion that some critical refugia may be counterintuitive.

Cumulative impacts on seabed habitats: an indicator for assessments of good environmental status.

PubMed

Korpinen, Samuli; Meidinger, Manuel; Laamanen, Maria

2013-09-15

The European seas are under anthropogenic pressures impacting the state of water quality, benthic habitats and species. The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires the Member States to assess the impacts of pressures and make a programme of measures leading to good environmental status (GES) by 2020. This study presents a method for assessing the quantity and distribution of anthropogenic impacts on benthic habitats in the Baltic Sea by using spatial data of human pressures and benthic habitats. The southern sub-basins were more extensively impacted than the northern sub-basins. Over the entire sea area, deep sea habitats were more impacted than shallower infralittoral and circalittoral habitats. Sand and coarse sediments were the seabed types relatively most impacted in the Baltic Sea scale. A comparison against tentative thresholds for GES showed that in the sub-basin scale only one third of the habitat types was in GES. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing Ecological Networks Based on Habitat Quality Assessment: A Case Study of Changzhou, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Yu; Ma, Lei; Liu, Jiaxun; Zhuang, Zhuzhou; Huang, Qiuhao; Li, Manchun

2017-04-01

Fragmentation and reduced continuity of habitat patches threaten the environment and biodiversity. Recently, ecological networks are increasingly attracting the attention of researchers as they provide fundamental frameworks for environmental protection. This study suggests a set of procedures to construct an ecological network. First, we proposed a method to construct a landscape resistance surface based on the assessment of habitat quality. Second, to analyze the effect of the resistance surface on corridor simulations, we used three methods to construct resistance surfaces: (1) the method proposed in this paper, (2) the entropy coefficient method, and (3) the expert scoring method. Then, we integrated habitat patches and resistance surfaces to identify potential corridors using graph theory. These procedures were tested in Changzhou, China. Comparing the outputs of using different resistance surfaces demonstrated that: (1) different landscape resistance surfaces contribute to how corridors are identified, but only slightly affect the assessment of the importance of habitat patches and potential corridors; (2) the resistance surface, which is constructed based on habitat quality, is more applicable to corridor simulations; and (3) the assessment of the importance of habitat patches is fundamental for ecological network optimization in the conservation of critical habitat patches and corridors.

Assessing mental health and violence on college campuses using the vulnerability model.

PubMed

Ponsford, Lisa R

2016-04-01

Violence on college campuses has become increasingly more common than in previous years. Nearly 73% of students with a mental health condition living on campus experience a mental health crisis. College students arriving on campuses today come with different needs, expectations for services, and with different risk factors than in previous years. Advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) in college health settings have the ability to recognize these changing trends and assist with improving the mental health of this population. A critical analysis of an exemplar college campus is explored using the vulnerability model to assess risks that can lead to unnecessary and preventable violence on college campuses. The vulnerability model is a comprehensive approach utilized to guide an assessment to identify both individual and community risk factors influencing health and healthcare environments. The use of the vulnerability model illustrated in this article reveals its usefulness in identifying the risk and needs for this population. APRNs and student health centers are positioned well to utilize the vulnerability model in assessing the needs of college campuses to improve outcomes of students. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment in karstic aquifers using COP method.

PubMed

Bagherzadeh, Somayeh; Kalantari, Nasrollah; Nobandegani, Amir Fadaei; Derakhshan, Zahra; Conti, Gea Oliveri; Ferrante, Margherita; Malekahmadi, Roya

2018-05-02

Access to safe and reliable drinking water is amongst the important indicators of development in each society, and water scarcity is one of the challenges and limitations affecting development at national and regional levels and social life and economic activity areas. Generally, there are two types of drinking water sources: the first type is surface waters, including lakes, rivers, and streams and the second type is groundwaters existing in aquifers. Amongst aquifers, karst aquifers play an important role in supplying water sources of the world. Therefore, protecting these aquifers from pollution sources is of paramount importance. COP method is amongst the methods to investigate the intrinsic vulnerability of this type of aquifers, so that areas susceptible to contamination can be determined before being contaminated and these sources can be protected. In the present study, COP method was employed in order to spot the regions that are prone to contamination in the region. This method uses the properties of overlying geological layers above the water table (O factor), the concentration of flow (C factor), and precipitation (P factor) over the aquifer, as the parameters to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater resources. In this regard, geographical information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS) were utilized to prepare the mentioned factors and the intrinsic vulnerability map was obtained. The results of COP method indicated that the northwest and the west of the region are highly and very vulnerable. This study indicated that regions with low vulnerability were observed in eastern areas, which accounted for 15.6% of the area. Moderate vulnerability was 40% and related to the northeast and southeast of the area. High vulnerability was 38.2% and related to western and southwestern regions. Very high vulnerability was 6.2% and related to the northwest of the area. By means of the analysis of sensitivity of the model, it was determined that the focus

Assessing Hydro-Ecological Vulnerability from Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stampoulis, D.; Andreadis, K.; Granger, S. L.; Fisher, J. B.; Turk, F. J.; Behrangi, A.; Das, N. N.; Ines, A.

2015-12-01

The main driver of economic growth in East Africa is agriculture. However, climate change and the resulting intensification of the hydrologic cycle will increase water limitation in this already drought-burdened region, and the challenge of ensuring food security is bound to become critical. Efforts must, therefore, be made to develop appropriate adaptation strategies for agriculture in such regions. Assessing and predicting ecosystem responses to global environmental change can advance management and decision support systems that would improve food security and economic development. The current study uses a plethora of multi-year remote sensing earth observations to study the hydro-ecological vulnerability of the various ecosystems in the water-stressed East African region to droughts. More specifically, we assess the hydrologic sensitivity and resilience of soil moisture and vegetation water content (derived from NRL's WindSat radiometer), during dry spells, for different dry-period durations, and for various vegetation categories. Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of the response of the two aforementioned variables to sustained precipitation deficits (derived from TRMM 3B42 V7), as well as their persistence in maintaining their stability are identified. We also assess changes, in space and time, in the normalized radar surface-backscattering cross-sections from NASA's QuikSCAT Scatterometer, to obtain information on the vegetation regimes, as well as changes in vegetation phenometrics using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) derived from MODIS. Quantifying the response and characterizing the resilience of the two aforementioned major hydrological attributes using various remote sensing techniques that complement each other, can provide critical insight into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity with respect to rainfall variability.

Vulnerability to Climate Change of Mangroves: Assessment from Cameroon, Central Africa

PubMed Central

Ellison, Joanna C.; Zouh, Isabella

2012-01-01

Intertidal mangrove ecosystems are sensitive to climate change impacts, particularly to associated relative sea level rise. Human stressors and low tidal range add to vulnerability, both characteristics of the Doula Estuary, Cameroon. To investigate vulnerability, spatial techniques were combined with ground surveys to map distributions of mangrove zones, and compare with historical spatial records to quantify change over the last few decades. Low technology techniques were used to establish the tidal range and relative elevation of the mapped mangrove area. Stratigraphic coring and palaeobiological reconstruction were used to show the longer term biological history of mangroves and net sedimentation rate, and oral history surveys of local communities were used to provide evidence of recent change and identify possible causes. Results showed that the seaward edge of mangroves had over two thirds of the shoreline experienced dieback at up to 3 m per year over the last three decades, and an offshore mangrove island had suffered 89% loss. Results also showed low net sedimentation rates under seaward edge mangroves, and restricted intertidal elevation habitats of all mangroves, and Avicennia and Laguncularia in particular. To reduce vulnerability, adaptation planning can be improved by reducing the non-climate stressors on the mangrove area, particularly those resulting from human impacts. Other priorities for adaptation planning in mangrove areas that are located in such low tidal range regions are to plan inland migration areas and strategic protected areas for mangroves, and to undertake management activities that enhance accretion within the mangroves. PMID:24832511

Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

PubMed

Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

2018-05-01

Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

Hydrocode simulations of air and water shocks for facility vulnerability assessments.

PubMed

Clutter, J Keith; Stahl, Michael

2004-01-02

Hydrocodes are widely used in the study of explosive systems but their use in routine facility vulnerability assessments has been limited due to the computational resources typically required. These requirements are due to the fact that the majority of hydrocodes have been developed primarily for the simulation of weapon-scale phenomena. It is not practical to use these same numerical frameworks on the large domains found in facility vulnerability studies. Here, a hydrocode formulated specifically for facility vulnerability assessments is reviewed. Techniques used to accurately represent the explosive source while maintaining computational efficiency are described. Submodels for addressing other issues found in typical terrorist attack scenarios are presented. In terrorist attack scenarios, loads produced by shocks play an important role in vulnerability. Due to the difference in the material properties of water and air and interface phenomena, there exists significant contrast in wave propagation phenomena in these two medium. These physical variations also require special attention be paid to the mathematical and numerical models used in the hydrocodes. Simulations for a variety of air and water shock scenarios are presented to validate the computational models used in the hydrocode and highlight the phenomenological issues.

A Preliminary Assessment of Social Vulnerability in Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hazra, Sugata; Islam, Nabiul

2017-04-01

The Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta has a high population density and is exposed to rapid environmental changes making it one of the most stressed deltas in the world. The low-lying coastal areas of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Delta comprise 19 coastal districts of Bangladesh and two districts in India with significant land areas within 5 meters of sea level has a population of more than 50 million people at an average population density of 1100 people/km2. This population is exposed to a range of hazards such as severe cyclones, coastal erosion, and salinization, exacerbated by climate change and subsidence which imply severe stress on the resource dependent community of this region. This situation is further complicated by poverty and limited social well-being such as poor access to education/ health/ drinking water/ sanitation facilities, and lack of food and energy security. Thus assessing social vulnerability can help to understand which communities are susceptible to environmental change and guide adaptation actions to address these threats. This preliminary study aims to construct a socio-economic index by assessing the social vulnerability of coastal communities of GBM Delta taking consistent and common secondary data from the Census of India and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statisticsand applyinga Principle Component Analysis(PCA) methodology. Several statistical tests like Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) have also been used to assess the appropriateness of using PCA. Among the selected common indicators, five major components are found to explain majority of the total variation of social vulnerability across the delta: (1) poverty, (2) dependency ratio, (3) agriculture dependency, (4) lack of sanitation and (5) existence of mud houses. The most important observation is the existence of a social vulnerability gradient across the coast. In other words, socially marginalised and vulnerable communities are found on the Delta margin in both India and

Physical aquatic habitat assessment data, Ozark plateaus, Missouri and Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Johnson, Harold E.; Reuter, Joanna M.; Wright, Maria Panfil

2004-01-01

This report presents data from two related studies on physical habitat in small streams in the Ozark Plateaus Physiographic Province of Missouri and Arkansas. Seventy stream reaches and their contributing drainage basins were assessed using a physical habitat protocol designed to optimize understanding of how stream reach characteristics relate to drainage-basin characteristics. Drainage-basin characteristics were evaluated using geographic information system (GIS) techniques and datasets designed to evaluate the geologic, physiographic, and land-use characteristics of encompassing drainage basins. Reach characteristics were evaluated using a field-based geomorphology and habitat protocol. The data are intended to complement ecological studies on Ozark Plateaus streams.

Downscaling Indicators of Forest Habitat Structure from National Assessments

Treesearch

Kurt H. Riitters

2005-01-01

Downscaling is an important problem because consistent large-area assessments of forest habitat structure, while feasible, are only feasible when using relatively coarse data and indicators. Techniques are needed to enable more detailed and local interpretations of the national statistics. Using the results of national assessments from land-cover maps, this paper...

Constructing Ecological Networks Based on Habitat Quality Assessment: A Case Study of Changzhou, China

PubMed Central

Gao, Yu; Ma, Lei; Liu, Jiaxun; Zhuang, Zhuzhou; Huang, Qiuhao; Li, Manchun

2017-01-01

Fragmentation and reduced continuity of habitat patches threaten the environment and biodiversity. Recently, ecological networks are increasingly attracting the attention of researchers as they provide fundamental frameworks for environmental protection. This study suggests a set of procedures to construct an ecological network. First, we proposed a method to construct a landscape resistance surface based on the assessment of habitat quality. Second, to analyze the effect of the resistance surface on corridor simulations, we used three methods to construct resistance surfaces: (1) the method proposed in this paper, (2) the entropy coefficient method, and (3) the expert scoring method. Then, we integrated habitat patches and resistance surfaces to identify potential corridors using graph theory. These procedures were tested in Changzhou, China. Comparing the outputs of using different resistance surfaces demonstrated that: (1) different landscape resistance surfaces contribute to how corridors are identified, but only slightly affect the assessment of the importance of habitat patches and potential corridors; (2) the resistance surface, which is constructed based on habitat quality, is more applicable to corridor simulations; and (3) the assessment of the importance of habitat patches is fundamental for ecological network optimization in the conservation of critical habitat patches and corridors. PMID:28393879

Development of AHPDST Vulnerability Indexing Model for Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Using Hydrogeophysical Derived Parameters and GIS Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogaji, K. A.

2017-04-01

Producing a bias-free vulnerability assessment map model is significantly needed for planning a scheme of groundwater quality protection. This study developed a GIS-based AHPDST vulnerability index model for producing groundwater vulnerability model map in the hard rock terrain, Nigeria by exploiting the potentials of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Dempster-Shafer theory (DST) data mining models. The acquired borehole and geophysical data in the study area were processed to derive five groundwater vulnerability conditioning factors (GVCFs), namely recharge rate, aquifer transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, transverse resistance and longitudinal conductance. The produced GVCFs' thematic maps were multi-criterially analyzed by employing the mechanisms of AHP and DST models to determine the normalized weight ( W) parameter for the GVCFs and mass function factors (MFFs) parameter for the GVCFs' thematic maps' class boundaries, respectively. Based on the application of the weighted linear average technique, the determined W and MFFs parameters were synthesized to develop groundwater vulnerability potential index (GVPI)-based AHPDST model algorithm. The developed model was applied to establish four GVPI mass/belief function indices. The estimates based on the applied GVPI belief function indices were processed in GIS environment to create prospective groundwater vulnerability potential index maps. The most representative of the resulting vulnerability maps (the GVPIBel map) was considered for producing the groundwater vulnerability potential zones (GVPZ) map for the area. The produced GVPZ map established 48 and 52% of the areal extent to be covered by the lows/moderate and highs vulnerable zones, respectively. The success and the prediction rates of the produced GVPZ map were determined using the relative operating characteristics technique to give 82.3 and 77.7%, respectively. The analyzed results reveal that the developed GVPI-based AHPDST model algorithm is

Vulnerability assessment of urban ecosystems driven by water resources, human health and atmospheric environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Zhang, Yang; Song, Xinshuang; He, Li

2016-05-01

As ecosystem management is a hotspot and urgent topic with increasing population growth and resource depletion. This paper develops an urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment method representing a new vulnerability paradigm for decision makers and environmental managers, as it's an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes in terms of natural, human, economic and social elements. The whole idea is to decompose a complex problem into sub-problem, and analyze each sub-problem, and then aggregate all sub-problems to solve this problem. This method integrates spatial context of Geographic Information System (GIS) tool, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operators, and socio-economic elements. Decision makers can find out relevant urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment results with different vulnerable attitude. To test the potential of the vulnerability methodology, it has been applied to a case study area in Beijing, China, where it proved to be reliable and consistent with the Beijing City Master Plan. The results of urban ecosystem vulnerability assessment can support decision makers in evaluating the necessary of taking specific measures to preserve the quality of human health and environmental stressors for a city or multiple cities, with identifying the implications and consequences of their decisions.

Shorebird habitat availability assessment of agricultural fields using a digital aerial video system

Treesearch

Clinton W. Jeske; Scott Wilson; Paul C. Chadwick; Wylie Barrow

2005-01-01

Field and wetland conditions in the rice prairies of Louisiana and Texas are highly dynamic habitats. Rice prairies are important habitat for many species of migratory birds, including shorebirds, wading birds, and waterfowl. Ground sampling a variety of fields to assess habitat availability is very labor intensive, and accessibility to private lands makes statistical...

Assessment of economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises.

PubMed

Sands, Peter; El Turabi, Anas; Saynisch, Philip A; Dzau, Victor J

2016-11-12

Infectious disease crises have substantial economic impact. Yet mainstream macroeconomic forecasting rarely takes account of the risk of potential pandemics. This oversight contributes to persistent underestimation of infectious disease risk and consequent underinvestment in preparedness and response to infectious disease crises. One reason why economists fail to include economic vulnerability to infectious disease threats in their assessments is the absence of readily available and digestible input data to inform such analysis. In this Viewpoint we suggest an approach by which the global health community can help to generate such inputs, and a framework to use these inputs to assess the economic vulnerability to infectious disease crises of individual countries and regions. We argue that incorporation of these risks in influential macroeconomic analyses such as the reports from the International Monetary Fund's Article IV consultations, rating agencies and risk consultancies would simultaneously improve the quality of economic risk forecasting and reinforce individual government and donor incentives to mitigate infectious disease risks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Wildlife Habitat Value of New England Salt Marshes: II. Model Testing and Validation

EPA Science Inventory

We test a previously described model to assess the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes by comparing modeled habitat values and scores with bird abundance and species richness at sixteen salt marshes in Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island USA. Assessment scores ranged f...

Assessing the Wildlife Habitat Value of New England Salt Marshes: I. Model and Application

EPA Science Inventory

We developed an assessment model to quantify the wildlife habitat value of New England salt marshes based on marsh characteristics and the presence of habitat types that influence habitat use by terrestrial wildlife. Applying the model to12 salt marshes located in Narragansett B...

Habitat assessment of non-wadeable rivers in Michigan.

PubMed

Wilhelm, Jennifer G O; Allan, J David; Wessell, Kelly J; Merritt, Richard W; Cummins, Kenneth W

2005-10-01

Habitat evaluation of wadeable streams based on accepted protocols provides a rapid and widely used adjunct to biological assessment. However, little effort has been devoted to habitat evaluation in non-wadeable rivers, where it is likely that protocols will differ and field logistics will be more challenging. We developed and tested a non-wadeable habitat index (NWHI) for rivers of Michigan, where non-wadeable rivers were defined as those of order >or=5, drainage area >or=1600 km2, mainstem lengths >or=100 km, and mean annual discharge >or=15 m3/s. This identified 22 candidate rivers that ranged in length from 103 to 825 km and in drainage area from 1620 to 16,860 km2. We measured 171 individual habitat variables over 2-km reaches at 35 locations on 14 rivers during 2000-2002, where mean wetted width was found to range from 32 to 185 m and mean thalweg depth from 0.8 to 8.3 m. We used correlation and principal components analysis to reduce the number of variables, and examined the spatial pattern of retained variables to exclude any that appeared to reflect spatial location rather than reach condition, resulting in 12 variables to be considered in the habitat index. The proposed NWHI included seven variables: riparian width, large woody debris, aquatic vegetation, bottom deposition, bank stability, thalweg substrate, and off-channel habitat. These variables were included because of their statistical association with independently derived measures of human disturbance in the riparian zone and the catchment, and because they are considered important in other habitat protocols or to the ecology of large rivers. Five variables were excluded because they were primarily related to river size rather than anthropogenic disturbance. This index correlated strongly with indices of disturbance based on the riparian (adjusted R2 = 0.62) and the catchment (adjusted R2 = 0.50), and distinguished the 35 river reaches into the categories of poor (2), fair (19), good (13), and

Resilience, Vulnerability and Residual Threat: An Assessment from Indian Sundarban

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, T.

2016-12-01

The estuarine islands within Indian Sundarban are extremely vulnerable due to climate change, erosion, flooding and increasing population pressure. Around 4.6 million people are living under constant threat of climatic shocks, affecting their farm based economy and dependency on forest resources for their livelihood. This paper attempts to focus on the dynamics of system's resilience in the backdrop of higher level of vulnerability. Globally the assessment of island vulnerability is generally more focused towards the climate change impacts, rather than taking into account other determining drivers with proper weightage. Three estuarine islands namely Sagar, Ghoramara and Mousani at the western part of Indian Sundarban Delta (ISD) have been chosen for this study to derive the indicator based scoring method using the household survey data from twenty seven (27) sampled `Mouza' (lowest administrative boundary; village) with cluster random sampling. Vulnerability and resilience of these islands have been calculated using the indicators like housing condition, electrification, population density, accretion, adult secondary education level, percentage of people `Below Poverty Line' (BPL) based on per capita income. Residual threats for these islands have been obtained by subtracting the score of resilience and vulnerability of the system. Result suggests that all these islands are in less resilient condition to combat the negative impact of the influencing factors. Sapkhali, Ghoramara, Bankimnagar, Shibpur and Baliara are becoming sensitive from excess residual threats. This study is an initiation for identifying the thrust areas need to address with effective policy adaptation, necessary to minimize the existing vulnerable conditions in these islands. Key words: Vulnerability, Resilience, Residual threat, Indian Sundarban

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: An integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alessa, L.; Kliskey, A.; Lammers, R.; Arp, C.; White, D.; Hinzman, L.; Busey, R.

2008-01-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The arctic water resource vulnerability index: an integrated assessment tool for community resilience and vulnerability with respect to freshwater.

PubMed

Alessa, Lilian; Kliskey, Andrew; Lammers, Richard; Arp, Chris; White, Dan; Hinzman, Larry; Busey, Robert

2008-09-01

People in the Arctic face uncertainty in their daily lives as they contend with environmental changes at a range of scales from local to global. Freshwater is a critical resource to people, and although water resource indicators have been developed that operate from regional to global scales and for midlatitude to equatorial environments, no appropriate index exists for assessing the vulnerability of Arctic communities to changing water resources at the local scale. The Arctic Water Resource Vulnerability Index (AWRVI) is proposed as a tool that Arctic communities can use to assess their relative vulnerability-resilience to changes in their water resources from a variety of biophysical and socioeconomic processes. The AWRVI is based on a social-ecological systems perspective that includes physical and social indicators of change and is demonstrated in three case study communities/watersheds in Alaska. These results highlight the value of communities engaging in the process of using the AWRVI and the diagnostic capability of examining the suite of constituent physical and social scores rather than the total AWRVI score alone.

Northern goshawk and its prey in the Black Hills: Habitat assessment

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Shelley Bayard de Volo; Richard T. Reynolds

2015-01-01

The northern goshawk is classified as a Sensitive Species in all USDA Forest Service regions, including on the Black Hills National Forest in western South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming. An assessment was conducted of the quality of northern goshawk nesting and foraging habitat, along with the habitat quality of 22 of the goshawk’s prey species. A Delphi (expert...

A model for assessing the systemic vulnerability in landslide prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascale, S.; Sdao, F.; Sole, A.

2010-07-01

The objectives of spatial planning should include the definition and assessment of possible mitigation strategies regarding the effects of natural hazards on the surrounding territory. Unfortunately, however, there is often a lack of adequate tools to provide necessary support to the local bodies responsible for land management. This paper deals with the conception, the development and the validation of an integrated numerical model for assessing systemic vulnerability in complex and urbanized landslide-prone areas. The proposed model considers this vulnerability not as a characteristic of a particular element at risk, but as a peculiarity of a complex territorial system, in which the elements are reciprocally linked in a functional way. It is an index of the tendency of a given territorial element to suffer damage (usually of a functional kind) due to its interconnections with other elements of the same territorial system. The innovative nature of this work also lies in the formalization of a procedure based on a network of influences for an adequate assessment of such "systemic" vulnerability. This approach can be used to obtain information which is useful, in any given situation of a territory hit by a landslide event, for the identification of the element which has suffered the most functional damage, ie the most "critical" element and the element which has the greatest repercussions on other elements of the system and thus a "decisive" role in the management of the emergency. This model was developed within a GIS system through the following phases: 1. the topological characterization of the territorial system studied and the assessment of the scenarios in terms of spatial landslide hazard. A statistical method, based on neural networks was proposed for the assessment of landslide hazard; 2. the analysis of the direct consequences of a scenario event on the system; 3. the definition of the assessment model of systemic vulnerability in landslide-prone areas. To

Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma, M.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Zong, Y.; Smith, D.

Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption

THE US EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: A RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR 2001-2006

EPA Science Inventory

The goal of ORD's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program is to develop all
approach to quantifying regional ecological vulnerabilities so that risk management activities can be targeted and prioritized. ReVA's focus is, to develop a set of methods that are applica...

Assessment of coastal vulnerability through the use of GIS tools in South Sicily (Italy).

PubMed

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Angel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from "high erosion" to "accretion." Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from "very high" to "no capital" land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed "very high" to "high" vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit "medium" and "low/very low" vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the "imminent collapse zone (ICZ)" which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

An assessment of bird habitat quality using population growth rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knutson, M.G.; Powell, L.A.; Hines, R.K.; Friberg, M.A.; Niemi, G.J.

2006-01-01

Survival and reproduction directly affect population growth rate (lambda) making lambda a fundamental parameter for assessing habitat quality. We used field data, literature review, and a computer simulation to predict annual productivity and lambda for several species of landbirds breeding in floodplain and upland forests in the Midwestern United States. We monitored 1735 nests of 27 species; 760 nests were in the uplands and 975 were in the floodplain. Each type of forest habitat (upland and floodplain) was a source habitat for some species. Despite a relatively low proportion of regional forest cover, the majority of species had stable or increasing populations in all or some habitats, including six species of conservation concern. In our search for a simple analog for lambda, we found that only adult apparent survival, juvenile survival, and annual productivity were correlated with lambda; daily nest survival and relative abundance estimated from point counts were not. Survival and annual productivity are among the most costly demographic parameters to measure and there does not seem to be a low-cost alternative. In addition, our literature search revealed that the demographic parameters needed to model annual productivity and lambda were unavailable for several species. More collective effort across North America is needed to fill the gaps in our knowledge of demographic parameters necessary to model both annual productivity and lambda. Managers can use habitat-specific predictions of annual productivity to compare habitat quality among species and habitats for purposes of evaluating management plans.

Assessing range-wide habitat suitability for the Lesser Prairie-Chicken

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Grisham, Blake A.; Timmer, Jennifer M.; Boal, Clint W.; Butler, Matthew; Pitman, James C.; Kyle, Sean; Klute, David; Beauprez, Grant M.; Janus, Allan; Van Pelt, William E.

2016-01-01

Population declines of many wildlife species have been linked to habitat loss incurred through land-use change. Incorporation of conservation planning into development planning may mitigate these impacts. The threatened Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is experiencing loss of native habitat and high levels of energy development across its multijurisdictional range. Our goal was to explore relationships of the species occurrence with landscape characteristics and anthropogenic effects influencing its distribution through evaluation of habitat suitability associated with one particular habitat usage, lekking. Lekking has been relatively well-surveyed, though not consistently, in all jurisdictions. All five states in which Lesser Prairie-Chickens occur cooperated in development of a Maxent habitat suitability model. We created two models, one with state as a factor and one without state. When state was included it was the most important predictor, followed by percent of land cover consisting of known or suspected used vegetation classes within a 5000 m area around a lek. Without state, land cover was the most important predictor of relative habitat suitability for leks. Among the anthropogenic predictors, landscape condition, a measure of human impact integrated across several factors, was most important, ranking third in importance without state. These results quantify the relative suitability of the landscape within the current occupied range of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. These models, combined with other landscape information, form the basis of a habitat assessment tool that can be used to guide siting of development projects and targeting of areas for conservation.

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA) IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION MAKING THROUGH CLIENT PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

The Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReV A) Program is an applied research program t,1at is focusing on using spatial information and model results to support environmental decision-making at regional- down to local-scales. Re VA has developed analysis and assessment methods to...

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest

Juvenile-adult habitat shift in permian fossil reptiles and amphibians.

PubMed

Bakker, R T

1982-07-02

Among extant large reptiles, juveniles often occupy different habitats from those of adults or subadults and thus avoid competition with and predation from the older animals; small juveniles often choose cryptic habitats because they are vulnerable to a wide variety of predators. Evidence from fossil humeri and femora of Early Permian reptiles collected from sediments of several distinct habitats indicate that similar shifts in habitat occurred. Juvenile Dimetrodon seem to have favored cryptic habitats around swamp and swampy lake margins; adults favored open habitats on the floodplains. Similar patterns of habitat shift seem to be present in the reptile Ophiacodon and the amphibian Eryops and may have been common in fossil tetrapods of the Permian-Triassic.

A comparison of data-driven groundwater vulnerability assessment methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorichetta, Alessandro; Ballabio, Cristiano; Masetti, Marco; Robinson, Gilpin R.; Sterlacchini, Simone

2013-01-01

Increasing availability of geo-environmental data has promoted the use of statistical methods to assess groundwater vulnerability. Nitrate is a widespread anthropogenic contaminant in groundwater and its occurrence can be used to identify aquifer settings vulnerable to contamination. In this study, multivariate Weights of Evidence (WofE) and Logistic Regression (LR) methods, where the response variable is binary, were used to evaluate the role and importance of a number of explanatory variables associated with nitrate sources and occurrence in groundwater in the Milan District (central part of the Po Plain, Italy). The results of these models have been used to map the spatial variation of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate in the region, and we compare the similarities and differences of their spatial patterns and associated explanatory variables. We modify the standard WofE method used in previous groundwater vulnerability studies to a form analogous to that used in LR; this provides a framework to compare the results of both models and reduces the effect of sampling bias on the results of the standard WofE model. In addition, a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model has been used to extend the LR analysis. Both approaches improved discrimination of the standard WofE and LR models, as measured by the c-statistic. Groundwater vulnerability probability outputs, based on rank-order classification of the respective model results, were similar in spatial patterns and identified similar strong explanatory variables associated with nitrate source (population density as a proxy for sewage systems and septic sources) and nitrate occurrence (groundwater depth).

Brief notes on habitat geology and clay pipe habitat on Stellwagen Bank

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valentine, Page C.; Dorsey, Eleanor M.; Pederson, Judith

1998-01-01

In our studies of sea floor habitats, my colleagues and I use both biological and geological approaches. We call our studies “habitat geology,” a term coined by a biologist friend of mine. We view it as the study of sea floor materials and biological and geological processes that influence where species live. Some of the factors that we consider are the following:composition of the sea bed, which ranges from mud to sand, gravel, bedrock, and shell beds;shape and steepness of the bottom;roughness of the bottom, which is enhanced by the presence of cobbles, boulders, sand waves and ripples, burrows into the bottom, and species that extend above the bottom;bottom currents generated by storm waves and tides, which can move sediment and expose or cover habitats; andthe way in which the sea bed is utilized by species.In addition, we take into account the impact of sea bed disturbance by bottom fishing trawls and dredges. Habitats characterized by attached and burrowing species that protrude above the sea bed appear to be most vulnerable to disturbance.

Rainfall-induced landslide vulnerability Assessment in urban area reflecting Urban structure and building characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, C.; Cho, M.; Lee, D.

2017-12-01

Landslide vulnerability assessment methodology of urban area is proposed with urban structure and building charateristics which can consider total damage cost of climate impacts. We used probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by slope stability analysis and Monte Carlo simulations. And We combined debris flows with considering spatial movements under topographical condition and built environmental condition. Urban vulnerability of landslide is assessed by two categories: physical demages and urban structure aspect. Physical vulnerability is related to buildings, road, other ubran infra. Urban structure vulnerability is considered a function of the socio-economic factors, trigger factor of secondary damage, and preparedness level of the local government. An index-based model is developed to evaluate the life and indirect damage under landslide as well as the resilience ability against disasters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. The general trend found in this study indicates that the higher population density areas under a weaker fiscal condition that are located at the downstream of mountainous areas are more vulnerable than the areas in opposite conditions.

The Influence of Victim Vulnerability and Gender on Police Officers' Assessment of Intimate Partner Violence Risk.

PubMed

Storey, Jennifer E; Strand, Susanne

2017-01-01

This study investigated the influence of victim vulnerability factors and gender on risk assessment for intimate partner violence (IPV). 867 cases of male and female perpetrated IPV investigated by Swedish police officers using the Brief Spousal Assault Form for the Evaluation of Risk (B-SAFER) were examined. For male-to-female IPV, victim vulnerability factors were associated with summary risk judgments and risk management recommendations. For female-to-male IPV, vulnerability factors were more often omitted, and consistent associations were not found between vulnerability factors, summary risk judgments, and risk management. Results indicate that B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors can assist in assessing male-to-female IPV risk. Further research is necessary to examine the use of B-SAFER victim vulnerability factors for female-to-male IPV, as results showed victim vulnerability factors to be less relevant to officers' decision making, particularly their management recommendations. However, several variables external to the B-SAFER, such as the availability of management strategies may account for these findings.

Mapping eco-environmental vulnerability patterns: An assessment framework based on remote sensing, GIS, and AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anh, N. K.; Liou, Y. A.; Li, M. H.

2016-12-01

The motivation for this study is assessment of the eco-environment vulnerability based on four independent determinants: hydro-meteorology, topography, land resources, and human activities. An assessment framework is proposed to assess the vulnerable eco-environment by using 16 variables with 6 of them constructed from Landsat 8 satellite images. The remaining variables were extracted from digital maps. Each variable was evaluated and spatially mapped with the aid of an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). The Thua Thien - Hue Province that has been experiencing natural disasters and urbanization in the recent decades is selected as our study area. An eco-environmental vulnerability map is assorted into six vulnerable levels consisting of potential, slight, light, medium, heavy, and very heavy vulnerabilities, representing 14%, 27%, 17%, 26%, 13%, 3% of the study area, respectively. It is found that heavy and very heavy vulnerable areas appear mainly in the low and medium lands with high intensification of social-economic activities and often suffer from flooding. Tiny percentages of medium and heavy vulnerable levels occur in high land areas probably caused by agricultural practices in highlands, slash and burn cultivation and removal of natural forests with new plantation forests and these regions are usually influenced by landslides, flash flooding. Based on our results, three ecological zones requiring different development and protection solutions are proposed to restore local eco-environment toward sustainable development. Our findings support the idea that eco-environmental vulnerability is driven by anthropogenic processes and enhanced by natural disaster in the Thua Thien-Hue Province.

Effects of habitat fragmentation on a stream-dwelling species, the flattened musk turtle Sternotherus depressus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodd, C.K.

1990-01-01

The flattened musk turtle Sternotherus depressus has disappeared from more than half of its former range because of habitat modifications to stream and river channels in the Warrior River Basin, Alabama. Only 6·9% of its probable historic range contains relatively healthy populations, and most populations are fragmented by extensive areas of unsuitable habitat. Turtles in the best remaining habitats continue to be vulnerable to disease and human-related disturbance, collecting and habitat modification. These factors lead to population declines and abnormal population structure. Habitat fragmentation, especially in small populations, increases vulnerability to human-caused catastrophes and demographic accidents, and could lead to eventual extinction. The threats facing fragmented populations of this turtle probably parallel those affecting many other stream-dwelling species throughout the southeastern United States.

Assess and Adapt: Coordinated Ecoregional Forest Vulnerability Assessments Covering the Upper Midwest and Northeast in Support of Climate-informed Decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Handler, S.; Butler, P.; Brandt, L.; Iverson, L.; Thompson, F.; Ontl, T.; Shannon, D.

2016-12-01

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessments are rapidly becoming an integral component of forest management planning, in which there is increasing public expectation that even near-term activities explicitly incorporate information about anticipated climate impacts and risks. There is a clear desire among forest managers for targeted assessments that address critical questions about species and ecosystem vulnerabilities while delivering this information in an accessible format. We developed the Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment Approach (EVAA), which combines multiple quantitative models, expert elicitation from scientists and land managers, and a templated report structure oriented to natural resource managers. The report structure includes relevant information on the contemporary landscape, past climate, future climate projections, impact model results, and a transparent vulnerability assessment of species and ecosystems. We have used EVAA in seven ecoregional assessments covering 246 million acres of forestland across the upper Midwest and Northeast (www.forestadaptation.org; five published, two in review). We convened a panel of local forest ecology and management experts in each assessment area to examine projected climate effects on system drivers, stressors, and dominant species, as well as the current adaptive capacity of the major ecoregional forest ecosystems. The panels provided a qualitative assessment of the vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century. Over 130 authors from dozens of organizations collaborated on these peer-reviewed assessment publications, which are delivered to thousands of stakeholders through live and recorded webinars, online briefs, and in-person trainings and seminars. The assessments are designed to be used with the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), a planning tool that works at multiple scales and has generated more than 200 real-world forest adaptation demonstration projects.

Modeling the Connectedness Between best Management Practices and Vulnerability Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anandhi, A.; Bailey, N.; Thomas, M.; Bartnick, B.

2015-12-01

The overall goal of this study is to better understand the connectedness between Best management practices (BMPs) and vulnerability assessments (VA) in a changing landuse. Developing this connectedness will help understand key vulnerabilities and improve adaptive capacity important for ecosystem sustainability. BMPs are practical management practices or systems designed and installed in watersheds to provide a wide range of effects to protect or restore the physical, chemical, and biological condition of waterbodies (e.g. changing hydrology; improving vegetative habitat; mitigate adverse environmental change). VAs can be defined as "the degree to which the system is susceptible to and is unable to cope with adverse effects of change" and are often characterized as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. There are many variables and factors used in calculating the impact of BMPs and VAs. The event mean concentration or load (e.g. nutrient, sediment,) associated with the specific landuse is an important variable. There is much data that predicts the loads associated with the major landuses (urban, agricultural). Loads greatly vary with region; rainfall characteristics (e.g. rainfall intensity, rainfall frequency); soil characteristics (e.g. soil type, hydrologic soil groups); hydrologic characteristics (e.g. runoff potential). A concern also exists that possibly all of the variables associated with changes in an individual land use have not been identified and distinguished for their impact on land use. For example, the loads associated with a high density residential with much green space may be more similar to medium density than loads associated with high rise apartment buildings. Other factors may include age of construction, % of families with children, % of families with pets, level of transiency, and construction activity The objective of our study is to develop an initial framework using multiple variables and factors to represent the

Riverine habitat dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, R.B.

2013-01-01

The physical habitat template is a fundamental influence on riverine ecosystem structure and function. Habitat dynamics refers to the variation in habitat through space and time as the result of varying discharge and varying geomorphology. Habitat dynamics can be assessed at spatial scales ranging from the grain (the smallest resolution at which an organism relates to its environment) to the extent (the broadest resolution inclusive of all space occupied during its life cycle). In addition to a potentially broad range of spatial scales, assessments of habitat dynamics may include dynamics of both occupied and nonoccupied habitat patches because of process interactions among patches. Temporal aspects of riverine habitat dynamics can be categorized into hydrodynamics and morphodynamics. Hydrodynamics refers to habitat variation that results from changes in discharge in the absence of significant change of channel morphology and at generally low sediment-transport rates. Hydrodynamic assessments are useful in cases of relatively high flow exceedance (percent of time a flow is equaled or exceeded) or high critical shear stress, conditions that are applicable in many studies of instream flows. Morphodynamics refers to habitat variation resulting from changes to substrate conditions or channel/floodplain morphology. Morphodynamic assessments are necessary when channel and floodplain boundary conditions have been significantly changed, generally by relatively rare flood events or in rivers with low critical shear stress. Morphodynamic habitat variation can be particularly important as disturbance mechanisms that mediate population growth or for providing conditions needed for reproduction, such as channel-migration events that erode cutbanks and provide new pointbar surfaces for germination of riparian trees. Understanding of habitat dynamics is increasing in importance as societal goals shift toward restoration of riverine ecosystems. Effective investment in restoration

Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Through the Use of GIS Tools in South Sicily (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martínez Del Pozo, José Ángel

2009-03-01

This study assessed coastal erosion vulnerability along a 90-km sector, which included both erosional and accretionary beaches, and different levels of human occupation. Two aerial photogrammetric flights were used to reconstruct coastal evolution between 1977 and 1999. During this period, extensive accretion was recorded updrift of human structures at harbors and ports, e.g., Scoglitti (105.6 m), Donnalucata (52.8 m), and Pozzallo (94.6 m). Conversely, erosion was recorded in downdrift areas, with maximum values at Modica Stream mouth (63.8 m) and Point Castellazzo (35.2 m). Assessments were subsequently divided into four categories ranging from “high erosion” to “accretion.” Several sources were examined to assess human activities and land use. The latter was mapped and divided into four categories, ranging from “very high” to “no capital” land use. Subsequently, coastal erosion vulnerability was assessed by combining land use categories with recorded coastline behavior. Results showed “very high” to “high” vulnerability along 5.8% and 16.6%, respectively, of the littoral, while 20.9% and 56.7%, respectively, was found to exhibit “medium” and “low/very low” vulnerability. A very good agreement between predicted coastal vulnerability and coastal trend had been observed over recent years. Furthermore, several human structures and activities are located within the “imminent collapse zone (ICZ)” which reached maximum values of 17.5 m at Modica Stream and 13.5 m at Point Braccetto.

Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

PubMed

Jaeger, Calvin D

2003-11-14

Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for

Vulnerability assessment of medieval civic towers as a tool for retrofitting design

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Casciati, Sara; Faravelli, Lucia

2008-07-08

The seismic vulnerability of an ancient civic bell-tower is studied. Rather than seeing it as an intermediate stage toward a risk analysis, the assessment of vulnerability is here pursued for the purpose of optimizing the retrofit design. The vulnerability curves are drawn by carrying out a single time history analysis of a model calibrated on the basis of experimental data. From the results of this analysis, the medians of three selected performance parameters are estimated, and they are used to compute, for each of them, the probability of exceeding or attaining the three corresponding levels of light, moderate and severemore » damage. The same numerical model is then used to incorporate the effects of several retrofitting solutions and to re-estimate the associated vulnerability curves. The ultimate goal is to provide a numerical tool able to drive the optimization process of a retrofit design by the comparison of the vulnerability estimates associated with the different retrofitting solutions.« less

Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model) - a case study for Bucharest, Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaş, I.; Gavriş, A.

2013-06-01

In recent decades, the development of vulnerability frameworks has enlarged the research in the natural hazards field. Despite progress in developing the vulnerability studies, there is more to investigate regarding the quantitative approach and clarification of the conceptual explanation of the social component. At the same time, some disaster-prone areas register limited attention. Among these, Romania's capital city, Bucharest, is the most earthquake-prone capital in Europe and the tenth in the world. The location is used to assess two multi-criteria methods for aggregating complex indicators: the social vulnerability index (SoVI model) and the spatial multi-criteria social vulnerability index (SEVI model). Using the data of the 2002 census we reduce the indicators through a factor analytical approach to create the indices and examine if they bear any resemblance to the known vulnerability of Bucharest city through an exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). This is a critical issue that may provide better understanding of the social vulnerability in the city and appropriate information for authorities and stakeholders to consider in their decision making. The study emphasizes that social vulnerability is an urban process that increased in a post-communist Bucharest, raising the concern that the population at risk lacks the capacity to cope with disasters. The assessment of the indices indicates a significant and similar clustering pattern of the census administrative units, with an overlap between the clustering areas affected by high social vulnerability. Our proposed SEVI model suggests adjustment sensitivity, useful in the expert-opinion accuracy.

Assessing the geomorphological vulnerability of arid beach-dune systems.

PubMed

Peña-Alonso, Carolina; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B; Hernández-Calvento, Luis; Hernández-Cordero, Antonio I; Ariza, Eduard

2018-09-01

In this study, an arid dune vulnerability index (ADVI) is developed using a system of indicators to evaluate the geomorphological vulnerability of beach-dune systems of arid regions. The indicators are comprised of three analytical dimensions (susceptibility, exposure and resilience) and their corresponding sub-indices and variables and were assessed for eleven sites located in four aeolian sedimentary systems of the Canary archipelago (Spain). The selected sites have varying geomorphological characteristics, vegetation types, marine and wind conditions and human pressure degrees, and have seen different trends in their geomorphological evolution since 1960. The eleven sites were separated into three groups according to their different conservation status and different management needs, and the results of the ADVI dimensions and variables were compared and analyzed for these three groups. In general, the results obtained in the analyzed sites reveal that susceptibility and exposure dimensions are related to low-moderate values, while resilience was high. Only one site presented a state of critical vulnerability, due to the loss of its capacity to maintain its geomorphological function in recent decades. Given the lack of knowledge about geomorphological vulnerability processes in foredunes of arid regions, ADVI is the first approximation to geomorphological diagnostic in these environments and can be useful for managers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing marine debris in deep seafloor habitats off California.

PubMed

Watters, Diana L; Yoklavich, Mary M; Love, Milton S; Schroeder, Donna M

2010-01-01

Marine debris is a global concern that pollutes the world's oceans, including deep benthic habitats where little is known about the extent of the problem. We provide the first quantitative assessment of debris on the seafloor (20-365 m depth) in submarine canyons and the continental shelf off California, using the Delta submersible. Fishing activities were the most common contributors of debris. Highest densities occurred close to ports off central California and increased significantly over the 15-year study period. Recreational monofilament fishing line dominated this debris. Debris was less dense and more diverse off southern than central California. Plastic was the most abundant material and will likely persist for centuries. Disturbance to habitat and organisms was low, and debris was used as habitat by some fishes and macroinvertebrates. Future trends in human activities on land and at sea will determine the type and magnitude of debris that accumulates in deep water. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

2016-08-01

The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

Vulnerability studies and integrated assessments for hazard risk reduction in Pittsburgh, PA (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.

2013-12-01

Today's environmental problems stretch beyond the bounds of most academic disciplines, and thus solutions require an interdisciplinary approach. For instance, the scientific consensus is changes in the frequency and severity of many types of extreme weather events are increasing (IPCC 2012). Yet despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gases, we continue to experience severe weather events such as Superstorm Sandy, record heat and blizzards, and droughts. These natural hazards, combined with increased vulnerability and exposure, result in longer-lasting disruptions to critical infrastructure and business continuity throughout the world. In order to protect both our lives and the economy, we must think beyond the bounds of any one discipline to include an integrated assessment of relevant work. In the wake of recent events, New York City, Washington, DC, Chicago, and a myriad of other cities have turned to their academic powerhouses for assistance in better understanding their vulnerabilities. This talk will share a case study of the state of integrated assessments and vulnerability studies of energy, transportation, water, real estate, and other main sectors in Pittsburgh, PA. Then the talk will use integrated assessment models and other vulnerability studies to create coordinated sets of climate projections for use by the many public agencies and private-sector organizations in the region.

Landscape-level connectivity in coastal southern California, USA, as assessed through carnivore habitat suitability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunter, Richard D.; Fisher, Robert N.; Crooks, Kevin R.

2003-01-01

Although the fragmentation of the natural landscape of coastal southern California, USA, is accelerating, large-scale assessments of regional connectivity are lacking. Because of their large area requirements and long dispersal movements, mammalian carnivores can be effective focal species to use when evaluating landscape-level connectivity. Our goal was to make an initial assessment of the extent of landscape-level connectivity in coastal southern California using mountain lions (Felis concolor [Linnaeus]) and bobcats (Felis rufus [Shreber]) as focal species. We first characterized habitat preferences for mountain lions and bobcats from previously derived habitat relationship models for these species; the resulting maps provided a coarse view of habitat preferences for use at regional scales. We then constructed GIS models to evaluate the disturbance impact of roadways and development, major determinants of carnivore distribution and abundance in the south coast region. Finally, we combined the habitat relationship models with the disturbance impact models to characterize habitat connectivity for mountain lions and bobcats in the ecoregion. Habitat connectivity in the ecoregion appeared higher for bobcats than for mountain lions due in part to higher habitat suitability for bobcats in coastal lowland areas. Our models suggest that much of the key carnivore habitat in the coastal southern California is at risk; over 80% of high suitability habitat and over 90% of medium suitability habitat for carnivores is found in the least protected land management classes. Overall, these models allow for (1) identification of core habitat blocks for carnivores and key landscape connections between core areas, (2) evaluation of the level of protection of these areas, and (3) a regional framework within which to develop and coordinate local management and conservation plans.

Energy Vulnerability Assessment for the US Pacific Islands. Technical Appendix 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fesharaki, F.; Rizer, J.P.; Greer, L.S.

1994-05-01

The study, Energy Vulnerability Assessment of the US Pacific Islands, was mandated by the Congress of the United States as stated in House Resolution 776-220 of 1992, Section 1406. The resolution states that the US Secretary of Energy shall conduct a study of the implications of the unique vulnerabilities of the insular areas to an oil supply disruption. Such study shall outline how the insular areas shall gain access to vital oil supplies during times of national emergency. The resolution defines insular areas as the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands,more » and Palau. The US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are not included in this report. The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has broadened the scope of the study contained in the House Resolution to include emergency preparedness and response strategies which would reduce vulnerability to an oil supply disruption as well as steps to ameliorate adverse economic consequences. This includes a review of alternative energy technologies with respect to their potential for reducing dependence on imported petroleum. USDOE has outlined the four tasks of the energy vulnerability assessment as the following: (1) for each island, determine crude oil and refined product demand/supply, and characterize energy and economic infrastructure; (2) forecast global and regional oil trade flow patterns, energy demand/supply, and economic activities; (3) formulate oil supply disruption scenarios and ascertain the general and unique vulnerabilities of these islands to oil supply disruptions; and (4) outline emergency preparedness and response options to secure oil supplies in the short run, and reduce dependence on imported oil in the longer term.« less

An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

PubMed

Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

2016-11-11

Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

A framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment for southwest U.S. military installations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, B.; Flick, Reinhard; Helly, J.; Nishikawa, Tracy; Pei, Fang Wang; O'Reilly, W.; Guza, R.; Bromirski, Peter; Young, A.; Crampton, W.; Wild, B.; Canner, I.

2011-01-01

We describe an analysis framework to determine military installation vulnerabilities under increases in local mean sea level as projected over the next century. The effort is in response to an increasing recognition of potential climate change ramifications for national security and recommendations that DoD conduct assessments of the impact on U.S. military installations of climate change. Results of the effort described here focus on development of a conceptual framework for sea level rise vulnerability assessment at coastal military installations in the southwest U.S. We introduce the vulnerability assessment in the context of a risk assessment paradigm that incorporates sources in the form of future sea level conditions, pathways of impact including inundation, flooding, erosion and intrusion, and a range of military installation specific receptors such as critical infrastructure and training areas. A unique aspect of the methodology is the capability to develop wave climate projections from GCM outputs and transform these to future wave conditions at specific coastal sites. Future sea level scenarios are considered in the context of installation sensitivity curves which reveal response thresholds specific to each installation, pathway and receptor. In the end, our goal is to provide a military-relevant framework for assessment of accelerated SLR vulnerability, and develop the best scientifically-based scenarios of waves, tides and storms and their implications for DoD installations in the southwestern U.S.

Index based regional vulnerability assessment to cyclones hazards of coastal area of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammad, Q. A.; Kervyn, M.; Khan, A. U.

2016-12-01

Cyclone, storm surge, coastal flooding, salinity intrusion, tornado, nor'wester, and thunderstorms are the listed natural hazards in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Bangladesh was hit by devastating cyclones in 1970, 1991, 2007, 2009, and 2016. Intensity and frequency of natural hazards in the coastal area are likely to increase in future due to climate change. Risk assessment is one of the most important steps of disaster risk reduction. As a climate change victim nation, Bangladesh claims compensation from green climate fund. It also created its own climate funds. It is therefore very important to assess vulnerability of the coast of Bangladesh to natural hazards for efficient allocation of financial investment to support the national risk reduction. This study aims at identifying the spatial variations in factors contributing to vulnerability of the coastal inhabitants of Bangladesh to natural hazards. An exploratory factor analysis method has been used to assess the vulnerability at each local administrative unit. The 141 initially selected 141 socio-economic indicators were reduced to 41 by converting some of them to meaningful widely accepted indicators and removing highly correlated indicators. Principle component analysis further reduced 41 indicators to 13 dimensions which explained 79% of total variation. PCA dimensions show three types of characteristics of the people that may lead people towards vulnerability. They are (a) demographic, education and job opportunities, (b) access to basic needs and facilities, and (c) special needs people. Vulnerability maps of the study area has been prepared by weighted overlay of the dimensions. Study revealed that 29 and 8 percent of total coastal area are very high and high vulnerable to natural hazards respectively. These are distributed along sea boundary and major rivers. Comparison of this spatial distribution with the capacities to face disaster show that highly vulnerable areas are well covered by cyclone

Quantitative assessment of Vulnerability of Forest ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byun, J.; Lee, W.; Choi, S.; Oh, S.; Climate Change Model Team

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the vulnerability of forest ecosystem to climate change in Korea using outputs of vegetation models(HyTAG and MC1) and socio-ecological indicators. Also it suggested adaptation strategies in forest management through analysis of three vulnerability components: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. For the model simulation of past years(1971-2000), the climatic data was prepared by the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). In addition, for the future simulation, the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model(MM5) coupling with atmosphere-ocean circulation model(ECHO-G) provide the future climatic data under the A1B scenarios. HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups), korean model of forest distribution on a regional-scale, could show extent of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in connection with changing frequency and changing direction of vegetation. MC1 model could provide variation and direction of NPP(Net Primary Production) and SCS(Soil Carbon Storage). In addition, the sensitivity and adaptation capacity were evaluated for each. Besides indicators from models, many other indicators such as financial affairs and number of officers were included in the vulnerability components. As a result of the vulnerability assessment, south western part and Je-ju island of Korea had relatively high vulnerability. This finding is considered to come from a distinctively adaptative capacity. Using these results, we could propose actions against climate change and develop decision making systems on forest management.

Assessing climate change and health vulnerability at the local level: Travis County, Texas.

PubMed

Prudent, Natasha; Houghton, Adele; Luber, George

2016-10-01

We created a measure to help comprehend population vulnerability to potential flooding and excessive heat events using health, built environment and social factors. Through principal component analysis (PCA), we created non-weighted sum index scores of literature-reviewed social and built environment characteristics. We created baseline poor health measures using 1999-2005 age-adjusted cardiovascular and combined diabetes and hypertension mortality rates to correspond with social-built environment indices. We mapped US Census block groups by linked age-adjusted mortality and a PCA-created social-built environment index. The goal was to measure flooding and excessive heat event vulnerability as proxies for population vulnerability to climate change for Travis County, Texas. This assessment identified communities where baseline poor health, social marginalisation and built environmental impediments intersected. Such assessments may assist targeted interventions and improve emergency preparedness in identified vulnerable communities, while fostering resilience through the focus of climate change adaptation policies at the local level. No claim to original US government works. Journal compilation © 2016 Overseas Development Institute.

Modelling riverine habitat for robust redhorse: assessment for reintroduction of an imperilled species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisk, J. M.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Heise, R. J.

2014-01-01

A critical component of a species reintroduction is assessment of contemporary habitat suitability. The robust redhorse, Moxostoma robustum (Cope), is an imperilled catostomid that occupies a restricted range in the south-eastern USA. A remnant population persists downstream of Blewett Falls Dam, the terminal dam in the Pee Dee River, North Carolina. Reintroduction upstream of Blewett Falls Dam may promote long-term survival of this population. Tillery Dam is the next hydroelectric facility upstream, which includes a 30 rkm lotic reach. Habitat suitability indices developed in the Pee Dee River were applied to model suitable habitat for proposed minimum flows downstream of Tillery Dam. Modelling results indicate that the Tillery reach provides suitable robust redhorse habitat, with spawning habitat more abundant than non-spawning habitat. Sensitivity analyses suggested that suitable water depth and substrate were limiting physical habitat variables. These results can inform decisions on flow regulation and guide planning for reintroduction of the robust redhorse and other species.

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (REVA) DEMONSTRATING RESULTS THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program, a regional-scale comparative risk research effort, has been under development since 1998 with a pilot study focused on the Mid- Atlantic region. ReVA is part of the interagency Integrated Science for Ecosystem Challenges ini...

Assessing critical habitat: Evaluating the relative contribution of habitats to population

EPA Science Inventory

A principal challenge of species conservation is to identify the specific habitats that are essential for long-term persistence or recovery of imperiled species. However, many approaches to identifying important habitats do not provide direct insight into the contribution of hab...

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: CREATING A CONTEXT FOR EVALUATING STREAM ACIDIFICATION

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is designed to identify ecosystems that are likely to vary beyond the range of natural variability and thereby experience reduced ecological integrity as a result of natural and human-induced stressors. ReVA makes use of r...

Assessing juvenile salmon rearing habitat and associated predation risk in a lower Snake River reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Hatten, James R.; Trachtenbarg, David A

2015-01-01

Subyearling fall Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Columbia River basin exhibit a transient rearing strategy and depend on connected shoreline habitats during freshwater rearing. Impoundment has greatly reduced the amount of shallow-water rearing habitat that is exacerbated by the steep topography of reservoirs. Periodic dredging creates opportunities to strategically place spoils to increase the amount of shallow-water habitat for subyearlings while at the same time reducing the amount of unsuitable area that is often preferred by predators. We assessed the amount and spatial arrangement of subyearling rearing habitat in Lower Granite Reservoir on the Snake River to guide future habitat improvement efforts. A spatially explicit habitat assessment was conducted using physical habitat data, two-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling and a statistical habitat model in a geographic information system framework. We used field collections of subyearlings and a common predator [smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu)] to draw inferences about predation risk within specific habitat types. Most of the high-probability rearing habitat was located in the upper half of the reservoir where gently sloping landforms created low lateral bed slopes and shallow-water habitats. Only 29% of shorelines were predicted to be suitable (probability >0.5) for subyearlings, and the occurrence of these shorelines decreased in a downstream direction. The remaining, less suitable areas were composed of low-probability habitats in unmodified (25%) and riprapped shorelines (46%). As expected, most subyearlings were found in high-probability habitat, while most smallmouth bass were found in low-probability locations. However, some subyearlings were found in low-probability habitats, such as riprap, where predation risk could be high. Given their transient rearing strategy and dependence on shoreline habitats, subyearlings could benefit from habitat creation efforts in the lower

Assessing species habitat using Google Street View: a case study of cliff-nesting vultures.

PubMed

Olea, Pedro P; Mateo-Tomás, Patricia

2013-01-01

The assessment of a species' habitat is a crucial issue in ecology and conservation. While the collection of habitat data has been boosted by the availability of remote sensing technologies, certain habitat types have yet to be collected through costly, on-ground surveys, limiting study over large areas. Cliffs are ecosystems that provide habitat for a rich biodiversity, especially raptors. Because of their principally vertical structure, however, cliffs are not easy to study by remote sensing technologies, posing a challenge for many researches and managers working with cliff-related biodiversity. We explore the feasibility of Google Street View, a freely available on-line tool, to remotely identify and assess the nesting habitat of two cliff-nesting vultures (the griffon vulture and the globally endangered Egyptian vulture) in northwestern Spain. Two main usefulness of Google Street View to ecologists and conservation biologists were evaluated: i) remotely identifying a species' potential habitat and ii) extracting fine-scale habitat information. Google Street View imagery covered 49% (1,907 km) of the roads of our study area (7,000 km²). The potential visibility covered by on-ground surveys was significantly greater (mean: 97.4%) than that of Google Street View (48.1%). However, incorporating Google Street View to the vulture's habitat survey would save, on average, 36% in time and 49.5% in funds with respect to the on-ground survey only. The ability of Google Street View to identify cliffs (overall accuracy = 100%) outperformed the classification maps derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) (62-95%). Nonetheless, high-performance DEM maps may be useful to compensate Google Street View coverage limitations. Through Google Street View we could examine 66% of the vultures' nesting-cliffs existing in the study area (n = 148): 64% from griffon vultures and 65% from Egyptian vultures. It also allowed us the extraction of fine-scale features of cliffs

Remote Sensing Based Vulnerability Assessment of Desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Lee, E. J.; Song, C.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.

2015-12-01

Desertification is one of the global threatening problems in respect of society, economy, and environment, and the assessment of desertification is essential for land planning and management. However desertification is a process that encompasses various factors in various aspects, having difficulties to assess qualitatively. The main purpose of the research is to qualitatively assess sensitivity of land to desertification, and detect the most vulnerable land to desertification in Mongolia and Myanmar using the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) approach. MEDALUS approach aims to provide a manual on key indicators of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in the Mediterranean countries. However in this research, MEDALUS approach is implemented and reviewed on the countries located in the Middle Asia; Mongolia and Myanmar. MEDALUS approach identifies regions with the highest risk of desertification with 4 quality index; climate, soil, vegetation, management. Within the four quality index are several regional scale indicators for Mongolia and Myanmar, which gives effect with increasing or decreasing risk of desertification. MODIS satellite images, Digital Elevation Model (DEM), and climatic and geographical data were used to calculate the indicators. The weighting of each indicator ranged from 1 to 2; the higher weight the more vulnerable to desertification. The weighted indicators were allocated to 4 quality index, and the four quality index was summed to calculate Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI) representing the vulnerability of land degradation to desertification. As a result, the Middle East region of Mongolia showed the highest sensitivity, thus the most vulnerable to desertification. Based on the result of this study, it is useful to identify the current state of affairs and the necessity of land planning in Mongolia and Myanmar, one tool that can be utilized for combating desertification. The

A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota

PubMed Central

Kail, Jochem; Guse, Björn; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Kleinhans, Maarten; Schuurman, Filip; Fohrer, Nicola; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian

2015-01-01

River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability / ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes) on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact research as well

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders’ Strengths and Vulnerabilities

PubMed Central

Singh, Jay P.; Desmarais, Sarah L.; Sellers, Brian G.; Hylton, Tatiana; Tirotti, Melissa; Van Dorn, Richard A.

2013-01-01

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention. PMID:25346561

Physically-Based Assessment of Intrinsic Groundwater Resource Vulnerability in AN Urban Catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graf, T.; Therrien, R.; Lemieux, J.; Molson, J. W.

2013-12-01

Several methods exist to assess intrinsic groundwater (re)source vulnerability for the purpose of sustainable groundwater management and protection. However, several methods are empirical and limited in their application to specific types of hydrogeological systems. Recent studies suggest that a physically-based approach could be better suited to provide a general, conceptual and operational basis for groundwater vulnerability assessment. A novel method for physically-based assessment of intrinsic aquifer vulnerability is currently under development and tested to explore the potential of an integrated modelling approach, combining groundwater travel time probability and future scenario modelling in conjunction with the fully integrated HydroGeoSphere model. To determine the intrinsic groundwater resource vulnerability, a fully coupled 2D surface water and 3D variably-saturated groundwater flow model in conjunction with a 3D geological model (GoCAD) has been developed for a case study of the Rivière Saint-Charles (Québec/Canada) regional scale, urban watershed. The model has been calibrated under transient flow conditions for the hydrogeological, variably-saturated subsurface system, coupled with the overland flow zone by taking into account monthly recharge variation and evapotranspiration. To better determine the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, two independent approaches are considered and subsequently combined in a simple, holistic multi-criteria-decision analyse. Most data for the model comes from an extensive hydrogeological database for the watershed, whereas data gaps have been complemented via field tests and literature review. The subsurface is composed of nine hydrofacies, ranging from unconsolidated fluvioglacial sediments to low permeability bedrock. The overland flow zone is divided into five major zones (Urban, Rural, Forest, River and Lake) to simulate the differences in landuse, whereas the unsaturated zone is represented via the model

Eight habitats, 38 threats and 55 experts: Assessing ecological risk in a multi-use marine region

PubMed Central

Jones, Alice R.; Deveney, Marty R.; Ward, Tim M.; Gillanders, Bronwyn M.

2017-01-01

Identifying the relative risk human activities pose to a habitat, and the ecosystem services they provide, can guide management prioritisation and resource allocation. Using a combination of expert elicitation to assess the probable effect of a threat and existing data to assess the level of threat exposure, we conducted a risk assessment for 38 human-mediated threats to eight marine habitats (totalling 304 threat-habitat combinations) in Spencer Gulf, Australia. We developed a score-based survey to collate expert opinion and assess the relative effect of each threat to each habitat, as well as a novel and independent measure of knowledge-based uncertainty. Fifty-five experts representing multiple sectors and institutions participated in the study, with 6 to 15 survey responses per habitat (n = 81 surveys). We identified key threats specific to each habitat; overall, climate change threats received the highest risk rankings, with nutrient discharge identified as a key local-scale stressor. Invasive species and most fishing-related threats, which are commonly identified as major threats to the marine environment, were ranked as low-tier threats to Spencer Gulf, emphasising the importance of regionally-relevant assessments. Further, we identified critical knowledge gaps and quantified uncertainty scores for each risk. Our approach will facilitate prioritisation of resource allocation in a region of increasing social, economic and environmental importance, and can be applied to marine regions where empirical data are lacking. PMID:28489912

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Use of standardized visual assessments of riparian and stream condition to manage riparian bird habitat in eastern Oregon.

PubMed

Cooke, Hilary A; Zack, Steve

2009-07-01

The importance of riparian vegetation to support stream function and provide riparian bird habitat in semiarid landscapes suggests that standardized assessment tools that include vegetation criteria to evaluate stream health could also be used to assess habitat conditions for riparian-dependent birds. We first evaluated the ability of two visual assessments of woody vegetation in the riparian zone (corridor width and height) to describe variation in the obligate riparian bird ensemble along 19 streams in eastern Oregon. Overall species richness and the abundances of three species all correlated significantly with both, but width was more important than height. We then examined the utility of the riparian zone criteria in three standardized and commonly used rapid visual riparian assessment protocols--the USDI BLM Proper Functioning Condition (PFC) assessment, the USDA NRCS Stream Visual Assessment Protocol (SVAP), and the U.S. EPA Habitat Assessment Field Data Sheet (HAFDS)--to assess potential riparian bird habitat. Based on the degree of correlation of bird species richness with assessment ratings, we found that PFC does not assess obligate riparian bird habitat condition, SVAP provides a coarse estimate, and HAFDS provides the best assessment. We recommend quantitative measures of woody vegetation for all assessments and that all protocols incorporate woody vegetation height. Given that rapid assessments may be the only source of information for thousands of kilometers of streams in the western United States, incorporating simple vegetation measurements is a critical step in evaluating the status of riparian bird habitat and provides a tool for tracking changes in vegetation condition resulting from management decisions.

Tsunami vulnerability assessment mapping for the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia using a geographical information system (GIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najihah, R.; Effendi, D. M.; Hairunnisa, M. A.; Masiri, K.

2014-02-01

The catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004 raised a number of questions for scientist and politicians on how to deal with the tsunami risk and assessment in coastal regions. This paper discusses the challenges in tsunami vulnerability assessment and presents the result of tsunami disaster mapping and vulnerability assessment study for West Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The spatial analysis was carried out using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to demarcate spatially the tsunami affected village's boundary and suitable disaster management program can be quickly and easily developed. In combination with other thematic maps such as road maps, rail maps, school maps, and topographic map sheets it was possible to plan the accessibility and shelter to the affected people. The tsunami vulnerability map was used to identify the vulnerability of villages/village population to tsunami. In the tsunami vulnerability map, the intensity of the tsunami was classified as hazard zones based on the inundation level in meter (contour). The approach produced a tsunami vulnerability assessment map consists of considering scenarios of plausible extreme, tsunami-generating events, computing the tsunami inundation levels caused by different events and scenarios and estimating the possible range of casualties for computing inundation levels. The study provides an interactive means to identify the tsunami affected areas after the disaster and mapping the tsunami vulnerable village before for planning purpose were the essential exercises for managing future disasters.

Free and Open Source Software for land degradation vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Imbrenda, Vito; Calamita, Giuseppe; Coluzzi, Rosa; D'Emilio, Mariagrazia; Lanfredi, Maria Teresa; Perrone, Angela; Ragosta, Maria; Simoniello, Tiziana

2013-04-01

Nowadays the role of FOSS software in scientific research is becoming increasingly important. Besides the important issues of reduced costs for licences, legality and security there are many other reasons that make FOSS software attractive. Firstly, making the code opened is a warranty of quality permitting to thousands of developers around the world to check the code and fix bugs rather than rely on vendors claims. FOSS communities are usually enthusiastic about helping other users for solving problems and expand or customize software (flexibility). Most important for this study, the interoperability allows to combine the user-friendly QGIS with the powerful GRASS-GIS and the richness of statistical methods of R in order to process remote sensing data and to perform geo-statistical analysis in one only environment. This study is focused on the land degradation (i.e. the reduction in the capacity of the land to provide ecosystem goods and services and assure its functions) and in particular on the estimation of the vulnerability levels in order to suggest appropriate policy actions to reduce/halt land degradation impacts, using the above mentioned software. The area investigated is the Basilicata Region (Southern Italy) where large natural areas are mixed with anthropized areas. To identify different levels of vulnerability we adopted the Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) model, based on the combination of indicators related to soil, climate, vegetation and anthropic stress. Such indicators were estimated by using the following data-sources: - Basilicata Region Geoportal to assess soil vulnerability; - DESERTNET2 project to evaluate potential vegetation vulnerability and climate vulnerability; - NDVI-MODIS satellite time series (2000-2010) with 250m resolution, available as 16-day composite from the NASA LP DAAC to characterize the dynamic component of vegetation; - Agricultural Census data 2010, Corine Land Cover 2006 and morphological information to assess

Evaluation of New Zealand's high-seas bottom trawl closures using predictive habitat models and quantitative risk assessment.

PubMed

Penney, Andrew J; Guinotte, John M

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas.

Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

2016-04-01

Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

A Synopsis of Global Mapping of Freshwater Habitats and Biodiversity: Implications for Conservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McManamay, Ryan A.; Griffiths, Natalie A.; DeRolph, Christopher R.

Accurately mapping freshwater habitats and biodiversity at high-resolutions across the globe is essential for assessing the vulnerability and threats to freshwater organisms and prioritizing conservation efforts. Since the 2000s, extensive efforts have been devoted to mapping global freshwater habitats (rivers, lakes, and wetlands), the spatial representation of which has changed dramatically over time with new geospatial data products and improved remote sensing technologies. Some of these mapping efforts, however, are still coarse representations of actual conditions. Likewise, the resolution and scope of global freshwater biodiversity compilation efforts have also increased, but are yet to mirror the spatial resolution and fidelitymore » of mapped freshwater environments. In our synopsis, we find that efforts to map freshwater habitats have been conducted independently of those for freshwater biodiversity; subsequently, there is little congruence in the spatial representation and resolution of the two efforts. We suggest that global species distribution models are needed to fill this information gap; however, limiting data on habitat characteristics at scales that complement freshwater habitats has prohibited global high-resolution biogeography efforts. Emerging research trends, such as mapping habitat alteration in freshwater ecosystems and trait biogeography, show great promise in mechanistically linking global anthropogenic stressors to freshwater biodiversity decline and extinction risk.« less

Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

2010-05-01

The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and

Coastal erosion vulnerability and risk assessment focusing in tourism beach use.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandrakis, George

2016-04-01

It is well established that the global market for tourism services is a key source of economic growth. Especially among Mediterranean countries, the tourism sector is one of the principal sectors driving national economies. With the majority of the mass tourism activities concentrated around coastal areas, coastal erosion, inter alia, poses a significant threat to coastal economies that depend heavily on revenues from tourism. The economic implications of beach erosion were mainly focused in the cost of coastal protection measures, instead of the revenue losses from tourism. For this, the vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise and associated erosion, in terms of expected land loss and economic activity need to be identified. To achieve this, a joint environmental and economic evaluation approach of the problem can provide a managerial tool to mitigate the impact of beach erosion in tourism, through realistic cost-benefit scenarios for planning alternative protection measures. Such a multipurpose tool needs to consider social, economic and environmental factors, which relationships can be better understood when distributed and analyzed along the geographical space. The risk assessment is implemented through the estimation of the vulnerability and exposure variables of the coast in two scales. The larger scale estimates the vulnerability in a regional level, with the use environmental factors with the use of CVI. The exposure variable is estimated by the use of socioeconomic factors. Subsequently, a smaller scale focuses on highly vulnerable beaches with high social and economic value. The assessment of the natural processes to the environmental characteristics of the beach is estimated with the use of the Beach Vulnerability Index (BVI) method. As exposure variable, the value of beach width that is capitalized in revenues is implemented through a hedonic pricing model. In this econometric modelling, Beach Value is related with economic and environmental

Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

PubMed

Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

2017-12-01

Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

Groundwater Pollution and Vulnerability Assessment.

PubMed

Kurwadkar, Sudarshan

2017-10-01

Groundwater is a critical resource that serve as a source of drinking water to large human population and, provide long-term water for irrigation purposes. In recent years; however, this precious resource being increasingly threatened, due to natural and anthropogenic activities. A variety of contaminants of emerging concern such as pharmaceuticals and personal care products, perfluorinated compounds, endocrine disruptors, and biological agents detected in the groundwater sources of both developing and developed nations. In this review paper, various studies have been included that documented instances of groundwater pollution and vulnerability to emerging contaminants of concern, pesticides, heavy metals, and leaching potential of various organic and inorganic contaminants from poorly managed residual waste products (biosolids, landfills, latrines, and septic tanks etc.). Understanding vulnerability of groundwater to pollution is critical to maintain the integrity of groundwater. A section on managed artificial recharge studies is included to highlight the sustainable approaches to groundwater conservation, replenishment and sustainability. This review paper is the synthesis of studies published in last one year that either documented the pollution problems or evaluated the vulnerability of groundwater pollution.

Multidimensional Approach for Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment: Framing the Territorial Impacts in Two Municipalities in Portugal.

PubMed

Tavares, Alexandre Oliveira; Barros, José Leandro; Santos, Angela

2017-04-01

This study presents a new multidimensional methodology for tsunami vulnerability assessment that combines the morphological, structural, social, and tax component of vulnerability. This new approach can be distinguished from previous methodologies that focused primarily on the evaluation of potentially affected buildings and did not use tsunami numerical modeling. The methodology was applied to the Figueira da Foz and Vila do Bispo municipalities in Portugal. For each area, the potential tsunami-inundated areas were calculated considering the 1755 Lisbon tsunami, which is the greatest disaster caused by natural hazards that ever occurred in Portugal. Furthermore, the four components of the vulnerability were calculated to obtain a composite vulnerability index. This methodology enables us to differentiate the two areas in their vulnerability, highlighting the characteristics of the territory components. This methodology can be a starting point for the creation of a local assessment framework at the municipal scale related to tsunami risk. In addition, the methodology is an important support for the different local stakeholders. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed Central

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-01-01

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action. PMID:26512681

On the Science-Policy Bridge: Do Spatial Heat Vulnerability Assessment Studies Influence Policy?

PubMed

Wolf, Tanja; Chuang, Wen-Ching; McGregor, Glenn

2015-10-23

Human vulnerability to heat varies at a range of spatial scales, especially within cities where there can be noticeable intra-urban differences in heat risk factors. Mapping and visualizing intra-urban heat vulnerability offers opportunities for presenting information to support decision-making. For example the visualization of the spatial variation of heat vulnerability has the potential to enable local governments to identify hot spots of vulnerability and allocate resources and increase assistance to people in areas of greatest need. Recently there has been a proliferation of heat vulnerability mapping studies, all of which, to varying degrees, justify the process of vulnerability mapping in a policy context. However, to date, there has not been a systematic review of the extent to which the results of vulnerability mapping studies have been applied in decision-making. Accordingly we undertook a comprehensive review of 37 recently published papers that use geospatial techniques for assessing human vulnerability to heat. In addition, we conducted an anonymous survey of the lead authors of the 37 papers in order to establish the level of interaction between the researchers as science information producers and local authorities as information users. Both paper review and author survey results show that heat vulnerability mapping has been used in an attempt to communicate policy recommendations, raise awareness and induce institutional networking and learning, but has not as yet had a substantive influence on policymaking or preventive action.

Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shekar, Venkateswaran; Fiondella, Lance; Chatterjee, Samrat

Transportation networks are critical to the social and economic function of nations. Given the continuing increase in the populations of cities throughout the world, the criticality of transportation infrastructure is expected to increase. Thus, it is ever more important to mitigate congestion as well as to assess the impact disruptions would have on individuals who depend on transportation for their work and livelihood. Moreover, several government organizations are responsible for ensuring transportation networks are available despite the constant threat of natural disasters and terrorist activities. Most of the previous transportation network vulnerability research has been performed in the context ofmore » static traffic models, many of which are formulated as traditional optimization problems. However, transportation networks are dynamic because their usage varies over time. Thus, more appropriate methods to characterize the vulnerability of transportation networks should consider their dynamic properties. This paper presents a quantitative approach to assess the vulnerability of a transportation network to disruptions with methods from traffic simulation. Our approach can prioritize the critical links over time and is generalizable to the case where both link and node disruptions are of concern. We illustrate the approach through a series of examples. Our results demonstrate that the approach provides quantitative insight into the time varying criticality of links. Such an approach could be used as the objective function of less traditional optimization methods that use simulation and other techniques to evaluate the relative utility of a particular network defense to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience.« less

Groundwater vulnerability to climate change: A review of the assessment methodology.

PubMed

Aslam, Rana Ammar; Shrestha, Sangam; Pandey, Vishnu Prasad

2018-01-15

Impacts of climate change on water resources, especially groundwater, can no longer be hidden. These impacts are further exacerbated under the integrated influence of climate variability, climate change and anthropogenic activities. The degree of impact varies according to geographical location and other factors leading systems and regions towards different levels of vulnerability. In the recent past, several attempts have been made in various regions across the globe to quantify the impacts and consequences of climate and non-climate factors in terms of vulnerability to groundwater resources. Firstly, this paper provides a structured review of the available literature, aiming to critically analyse and highlight the limitations and knowledge gaps involved in vulnerability (of groundwater to climate change) assessment methodologies. The effects of indicator choice and the importance of including composite indicators are then emphasised. A new integrated approach for the assessment of groundwater vulnerability to climate change is proposed to successfully address those limitations. This review concludes that the choice of indicator has a significant role in defining the reliability of computed results. The effect of an individual indicator is also apparent but the consideration of a combination (variety) of indicators may give more realistic results. Therefore, in future, depending upon the local conditions and scale of the study, indicators from various groups should be chosen. Furthermore, there are various assumptions involved in previous methodologies, which limit their scope by introducing uncertainty in the calculated results. These limitations can be overcome by implementing the proposed approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A FRAMEWORK FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF WILDLIFE HABITAT VALUE OF NEW ENGLAND SALT MARSHES

EPA Science Inventory

Resource managers are frequently asked to make decisions that affect the protection and restoration of wetland habitats. The desire is often to base at least some part of this decision process on an assessment of wildlife habitat value, an acknowledged and important wetland func...

Vulnerability survival analysis: a novel approach to vulnerability management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farris, Katheryn A.; Sullivan, John; Cybenko, George

2017-05-01

Computer security vulnerabilities span across large, enterprise networks and have to be mitigated by security engineers on a routine basis. Presently, security engineers will assess their "risk posture" through quantifying the number of vulnerabilities with a high Common Vulnerability Severity Score (CVSS). Yet, little to no attention is given to the length of time by which vulnerabilities persist and survive on the network. In this paper, we review a novel approach to quantifying the length of time a vulnerability persists on the network, its time-to-death, and predictors of lower vulnerability survival rates. Our contribution is unique in that we apply the cox proportional hazards regression model to real data from an operational IT environment. This paper provides a mathematical overview of the theory behind survival analysis methods, a description of our vulnerability data, and an interpretation of the results.

Lessons from Red Data Books: Plant Vulnerability Increases with Floral Complexity

PubMed Central

Stefanaki, Anastasia; Kantsa, Aphrodite; Tscheulin, Thomas; Charitonidou, Martha; Petanidou, Theodora

2015-01-01

The architectural complexity of flower structures (hereafter referred to as floral complexity) may be linked to pollination by specialized pollinators that can increase the probability of successful seed set. As plant—pollinator systems become fragile, a loss of such specialized pollinators could presumably result in an increased likelihood of pollination failure. This is an issue likely to be particularly evident in plants that are currently rare. Using a novel index describing floral complexity we explored whether this aspect of the structure of flowers could be used to predict vulnerability of plant species to extinction. To do this we defined plant vulnerability using the Red Data Book of Rare and Threatened Plants of Greece, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. We also tested whether other intrinsic (e.g. life form, asexual reproduction) or extrinsic (e.g. habitat, altitude, range-restrictedness) factors could affect plant vulnerability. We found that plants with high floral complexity scores were significantly more likely to be vulnerable to extinction. Among all the floral complexity components only floral symmetry was found to have a significant effect, with radial-flower plants appearing to be less vulnerable. Life form was also a predictor of vulnerability, with woody perennial plants having significantly lower risk of extinction. Among the extrinsic factors, both habitat and maximum range were significantly associated with plant vulnerability (coastal plants and narrow-ranged plants are more likely to face higher risk). Although extrinsic and in particular anthropogenic factors determine plant extinction risk, intrinsic traits can indicate a plant’s proneness to vulnerability. This raises the potential threat of declining global pollinator diversity interacting with floral complexity to increase the vulnerability of individual plant species. There is potential scope for using plant—pollinator specializations to identify plant species particularly

Lessons from Red Data Books: Plant Vulnerability Increases with Floral Complexity.

PubMed

Stefanaki, Anastasia; Kantsa, Aphrodite; Tscheulin, Thomas; Charitonidou, Martha; Petanidou, Theodora

2015-01-01

The architectural complexity of flower structures (hereafter referred to as floral complexity) may be linked to pollination by specialized pollinators that can increase the probability of successful seed set. As plant-pollinator systems become fragile, a loss of such specialized pollinators could presumably result in an increased likelihood of pollination failure. This is an issue likely to be particularly evident in plants that are currently rare. Using a novel index describing floral complexity we explored whether this aspect of the structure of flowers could be used to predict vulnerability of plant species to extinction. To do this we defined plant vulnerability using the Red Data Book of Rare and Threatened Plants of Greece, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot. We also tested whether other intrinsic (e.g. life form, asexual reproduction) or extrinsic (e.g. habitat, altitude, range-restrictedness) factors could affect plant vulnerability. We found that plants with high floral complexity scores were significantly more likely to be vulnerable to extinction. Among all the floral complexity components only floral symmetry was found to have a significant effect, with radial-flower plants appearing to be less vulnerable. Life form was also a predictor of vulnerability, with woody perennial plants having significantly lower risk of extinction. Among the extrinsic factors, both habitat and maximum range were significantly associated with plant vulnerability (coastal plants and narrow-ranged plants are more likely to face higher risk). Although extrinsic and in particular anthropogenic factors determine plant extinction risk, intrinsic traits can indicate a plant's proneness to vulnerability. This raises the potential threat of declining global pollinator diversity interacting with floral complexity to increase the vulnerability of individual plant species. There is potential scope for using plant-pollinator specializations to identify plant species particularly at

Structural vulnerability assessment using reliability of slabs in avalanche area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Favier, Philomène; Bertrand, David; Eckert, Nicolas; Naaim, Mohamed

2013-04-01

Improvement of risk assessment or hazard zoning requires a better understanding of the physical vulnerability of structures. To consider natural hazard issue such as snow avalanches, once the flow is characterized, highlight on the mechanical behaviour of the structure is a decisive step. A challenging approach is to quantify the physical vulnerability of impacted structures according to various avalanche loadings. The main objective of this presentation is to introduce methodology and outcomes regarding the assessment of vulnerability of reinforced concrete buildings using reliability methods. Reinforced concrete has been chosen as it is one of the usual material used to build structures exposed to potential avalanche loadings. In avalanche blue zones, structures have to resist to a pressure up to 30kPa. Thus, by providing systematic fragility relations linked to the global failure of the structure, this method may serve the avalanche risk assessment. To do so, a slab was numerically designed. It represented the avalanche facing wall of a house. Different configuration cases of the element in stake have been treated to quantify numerical aspects of the problem, such as the boundary conditions or the mechanical behaviour of the structure. The structure is analysed according to four different limit states, semi-local and global failures are considered to describe the slab behaviour. The first state is attained when cracks appear in the tensile zone, then the two next states are described consistent with the Eurocode, the final state is the total collapse of the structure characterized by the yield line theory. Failure probability is estimated in accordance to the reliability framework. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to quantify the fragility to different loadings. Sensitivity of models in terms of input distributions were defined with statistical tools such as confidence intervals and Sobol's indexes. Conclusion and discussion of this work are established to

EPA'S REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM: TOOLS TO FACILITATE REGIONAL TO LOCAL DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is developing and testing approaches to conducting comparative environmental risk assessments at the regional scale, considering impacts to ecological human, and fiscal health endpoints. It seeks an objective and quantifiable...

How useful are Swiss flood insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2015-04-01

vulnerability and resilience assessments. For instance, the collation of insurance loss data with event documentations containing information on flood intensity allows to develop damage curves. Flood damage curves are fundamental for many risk analysis methodologies but to date only few are published and the spatial and temporal scope of their applicability is subject of discussion. Another possibility of using insurance data lies in the field of assessment exposure, where the analysis of comprehensive insurance portfolio data can improve the understanding of the physical but also the socio-economical vulnerability of a society. The poster spotlights key opportunities and challenges scientists are facing when using insurance data for flood vulnerability assessments.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Assessing Species Habitat Using Google Street View: A Case Study of Cliff-Nesting Vultures

PubMed Central

Olea, Pedro P.; Mateo-Tomás, Patricia

2013-01-01

The assessment of a species’ habitat is a crucial issue in ecology and conservation. While the collection of habitat data has been boosted by the availability of remote sensing technologies, certain habitat types have yet to be collected through costly, on-ground surveys, limiting study over large areas. Cliffs are ecosystems that provide habitat for a rich biodiversity, especially raptors. Because of their principally vertical structure, however, cliffs are not easy to study by remote sensing technologies, posing a challenge for many researches and managers working with cliff-related biodiversity. We explore the feasibility of Google Street View, a freely available on-line tool, to remotely identify and assess the nesting habitat of two cliff-nesting vultures (the griffon vulture and the globally endangered Egyptian vulture) in northwestern Spain. Two main usefulness of Google Street View to ecologists and conservation biologists were evaluated: i) remotely identifying a species’ potential habitat and ii) extracting fine-scale habitat information. Google Street View imagery covered 49% (1,907 km) of the roads of our study area (7,000 km2). The potential visibility covered by on-ground surveys was significantly greater (mean: 97.4%) than that of Google Street View (48.1%). However, incorporating Google Street View to the vulture’s habitat survey would save, on average, 36% in time and 49.5% in funds with respect to the on-ground survey only. The ability of Google Street View to identify cliffs (overall accuracy = 100%) outperformed the classification maps derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) (62–95%). Nonetheless, high-performance DEM maps may be useful to compensate Google Street View coverage limitations. Through Google Street View we could examine 66% of the vultures’ nesting-cliffs existing in the study area (n = 148): 64% from griffon vultures and 65% from Egyptian vultures. It also allowed us the extraction of fine-scale features of

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: fuzzy multi-criteria approach for Mexico city.

PubMed

Mazari-Hiriart, Marisa; Cruz-Bello, Gustavo; Bojórquez-Tapia, Luis A; Juárez-Marusich, Lourdes; Alcantar-López, Georgina; Marín, Luis E; Soto-Galera, Ernesto

2006-03-01

This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multi-criteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA.

ESTIMATING THE DISTRIBUTION OF HARVESTED ESTUARINE BIVALVES WITH NATURAL-HISTORY-BASED HABITAT SUITABILITY MODELS.

EPA Science Inventory

Habitat suitability models are used to forecast how environmental change may affect the abundance or distribution of species of interest. The development of habitat suitability models may be used to estimate the vulnerability of this valued ecosystem good to natural or anthropog...

SHALLOW HABITATS IN TWO RHODE ISLAND SYSTEMS: I. PATTERNS OF FAUNAL BIOMASS AND DENSITY

EPA Science Inventory

Shallow aquatic habitats are particularly vulnerable to human impacts. To understand the resource value of these habitats, we quantified density and biomass of fishes and invertebrates in an estuarine cove (Coggeshall Cove, RI) and in a coastal lagoon (Ninigret Pond, RI). We samp...

A hybrid framework for assessing maize drought vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamali, B.; Abbaspour, K. C.; Wehrli, B.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

Drought has devastating impacts on crop yields. Quantifying drought vulnerability is the first step to better design of mitigation policies. The vulnerability of crop yield to drought has been assessed with different methods, however they lack a standardized base to measure its components and a procedure that facilitates spatial and temporal comparisons. This study attempts to quantify maize drought vulnerability through linking the Drought Exposure Index (DEI) to the Crop Failure Index (CFI). DEI and CFI were defined by fitting probability distribution functions to precipitation and maize yield respectively. To acquire crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI), DEI and CFI were combined in a hybrid framework which classifies CDVI with the same base as DEI and CFI. The analysis were implemented on Sub-Saharan African countries using maize yield simulated with the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model at 0.5° resolution. The model was coupled with the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm for calibration at country level. Our results show that Central Africa and those Western African countries located below the Sahelian strip receive higher amount of precipitation, but experience high crop failure. Therefore, they are identified as more vulnerable regions compared to countries such as South Africa, Tanzania, and Kenya. We concluded that our hybrid approach complements information on crop drought vulnerability quantification and can be applied to different regions and scales.

Habitat classification modeling with incomplete data: Pushing the habitat envelope

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarnetske, P.L.; Edwards, T.C.; Moisen, Gretchen G.

2007-01-01

Habitat classification models (HCMs) are invaluable tools for species conservation, land-use planning, reserve design, and metapopulation assessments, particularly at broad spatial scales. However, species occurrence data are often lacking and typically limited to presence points at broad scales. This lack of absence data precludes the use of many statistical techniques for HCMs. One option is to generate pseudo-absence points so that the many available statistical modeling tools can be used. Traditional techniques generate pseudoabsence points at random across broadly defined species ranges, often failing to include biological knowledge concerning the species-habitat relationship. We incorporated biological knowledge of the species-habitat relationship into pseudo-absence points by creating habitat envelopes that constrain the region from which points were randomly selected. We define a habitat envelope as an ecological representation of a species, or species feature's (e.g., nest) observed distribution (i.e., realized niche) based on a single attribute, or the spatial intersection of multiple attributes. We created HCMs for Northern Goshawk (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) nest habitat during the breeding season across Utah forests with extant nest presence points and ecologically based pseudo-absence points using logistic regression. Predictor variables were derived from 30-m USDA Landfire and 250-m Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) map products. These habitat-envelope-based models were then compared to null envelope models which use traditional practices for generating pseudo-absences. Models were assessed for fit and predictive capability using metrics such as kappa, thresholdindependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots, adjusted deviance (Dadj2), and cross-validation, and were also assessed for ecological relevance. For all cases, habitat envelope-based models outperformed null envelope models and were more ecologically relevant, suggesting

Assessment of River Habitat Quality in the Hai River Basin, Northern China.

PubMed

Ding, Yuekui; Shan, Baoqing; Zhao, Yu

2015-09-17

We applied a river habitat quality (RHQ) assessment method to the Hai River Basin (HRB); an important economic centre in China; to obtain baseline information for water quality improvement; river rehabilitation; and watershed management. The results of the assessment showed that the river habitat in the HRB is seriously degraded. Specifically; 42.41% of the sites; accounting for a river length of 3.31 × 10⁴ km; were designated poor and bad. Habitat in the plain areas is seriously deteriorated; and nearly 50% of the sites; accounting for a river length of 1.65 × 10⁴ km; had either poor or bad habitats. River habitat degradation was attributable to the limited width of the riparian zone (≤5 m); lower coverage of riparian vegetation (≤40%); artificial land use patterns (public and industrial land); frequent occurrence of farming on the river banks and high volumes of solid waste (nearly 10 m³); single flow channels; and rare aquatic plants (≤1 category). At the regional scale; intensive artificial land use types caused by urbanization had a significant impact on the RHQ in the HRB. RHQ was significantly and negatively correlated with farmland (r = 1.000; p < 0.01) and urban land (r = 0.998; p < 0.05); and was significantly and positively correlated with grassland and woodland (r = 1.000; p < 0.01). Intensive artificial land use; created through urbanization processes; has led to a loss of the riparian zone and its native vegetation; and has disrupted the lateral connectivity of the rivers. The degradation of the already essentially black rivers is exacerbated by poor longitudinal connectivity (index of connectivity is 2.08-16.56); caused by reservoirs and sluices. For river habitat rehabilitation to be successful; land use patterns need to be changed and reservoirs and sluices will have to be regulated.

Assessment of River Habitat Quality in the Hai River Basin, Northern China

PubMed Central

Ding, Yuekui; Shan, Baoqing; Zhao, Yu

2015-01-01

We applied a river habitat quality (RHQ) assessment method to the Hai River Basin (HRB); an important economic centre in China; to obtain baseline information for water quality improvement; river rehabilitation; and watershed management. The results of the assessment showed that the river habitat in the HRB is seriously degraded. Specifically; 42.41% of the sites; accounting for a river length of 3.31 × 104 km; were designated poor and bad. Habitat in the plain areas is seriously deteriorated; and nearly 50% of the sites; accounting for a river length of 1.65 × 104 km; had either poor or bad habitats. River habitat degradation was attributable to the limited width of the riparian zone (≤5 m); lower coverage of riparian vegetation (≤40%); artificial land use patterns (public and industrial land); frequent occurrence of farming on the river banks and high volumes of solid waste (nearly 10 m3); single flow channels; and rare aquatic plants (≤1 category). At the regional scale; intensive artificial land use types caused by urbanization had a significant impact on the RHQ in the HRB. RHQ was significantly and negatively correlated with farmland (r = 1.000; p < 0.01) and urban land (r = 0.998; p < 0.05); and was significantly and positively correlated with grassland and woodland (r = 1.000; p < 0.01). Intensive artificial land use; created through urbanization processes; has led to a loss of the riparian zone and its native vegetation; and has disrupted the lateral connectivity of the rivers. The degradation of the already essentially black rivers is exacerbated by poor longitudinal connectivity (index of connectivity is 2.08–16.56); caused by reservoirs and sluices. For river habitat rehabilitation to be successful; land use patterns need to be changed and reservoirs and sluices will have to be regulated. PMID:26393628

Assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change: From pseudo to science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Waples, Robin S.; Luikart, Gordon

2017-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are important tools to plan for and mitigate potential impacts of climate change. However, CCVAs often lack scientific rigor, which can ultimately lead to poor conservation prioritization and associated ecological and economic costs. We discuss the need to improve comparability and consistency of CCVAs and either validate their findings or improve assessment of CCVA uncertainty and sensitivity to methodological assumptions.

The Future of Risk Analysis: Operationalizing Living Vulnerability Assessments from the Cloud to the Street (and Back)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.; Kuhn, C.; Pandey, B.; Schank, C.; Sullivan, J.; Mahtta, R.; Hammet, L.

2016-12-01

21 million people are exposed to flooding every year, and that number is expected to more than double by 2030 due to climate, land use, and demographic change. Cloud to Street, a mission driven science organization, is working to make big and real time data more meaningful to understand both biophysical and social vulnerability to flooding in this changing world. This talk will showcase the science and practice we have built of integrated social and biophysical flood vulnerability assessments based on our work in Uttarakhand, India and Senegal, in conjunction with nonprofits and development banks. We will show developments of our global historical flood database, detected from MODIS and Landsat satellites, used to power machine learning flood exposure models in Google Earth Engine's API. Demonstrating the approach, we will also showcase new approaches in social vulnerability science, from developing data-driven social vulnerability indices in India, to deriving predictive models that explain the social conditions that lead to disproportionate flood damage and fatality in the US. While this talk will draw on examples of completed vulnerability assessments, we will also discuss the possible future for place-based "living" flood vulnerability assessments that are updated each time satellites circle the earth or people add crowd-sourced observations about flood events and social conditions.

Assessing social vulnerability to climate change in human communities near public forests and grasslands: a framework for resource managers and planners

Treesearch

A. Paige Fischer; Travis Paveglio; Matthew Carroll; Daniel Murphy; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2013-01-01

Public land management agencies have incorporated the concept of vulnerability into protocols for assessing and planning for climate change impacts on public forests and grasslands. However, resource managers and planners have little guidance for how to address the social aspects of vulnerability in these assessments and plans. Failure to assess social vulnerability to...

Assessing critical habitat: Evaluating the relative contribution of habitats to population persistence

EPA Science Inventory

1. A principal challenge of species conservation is to identify the specific habitats that are essential for long-term persistence or recovery of species at risk. However, many commonly used approaches to identifying important habitats do not provide direct insight into the contr...

Assessment of vulnerability zones for ground water pollution using GIS-DRASTIC-EC model: A field-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantha Rao, D.; Naik, Pradeep K.; Jain, Sunil K.; Vinod Kumar, K.; Dhanamjaya Rao, E. N.

2018-06-01

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution is an essential pre-requisite for better planning of an area. We present the groundwater vulnerability assessment in parts of the Yamuna Nagar District, Haryana State, India in an area of about 800 km2, considered to be a freshwater zone in the foothills of the Siwalik Hill Ranges. Such areas in the Lower Himalayas form good groundwater recharge zones, and should always be free from contamination. But, the administration has been trying to promote industrialization along these foothill zones without actually assessing the environmental consequences such activities may invite in the future. GIS-DRASTIC model has been used with field based data inputs for studying the vulnerability assessment. But, we find that inclusion electrical conductivity (EC) as a model parameter makes it more robust. Therefore, we rename it as GIS-DRASTIC-EC model. The model identifies three vulnerability zones such as low, moderate and high with an areal extent of 5%, 80% and 15%, respectively. On the basis of major chemical parameters alone, the groundwater in the foothill zones apparently looks safe, but analysis with the help of GIS-DRASTIC-EC model gives a better perspective of the groundwater quality in terms of identifying the vulnerable areas.

Vulnerability to xylem embolism as a major correlate of the environmental distribution of rain forest species on a tropical island.

PubMed

Trueba, Santiago; Pouteau, Robin; Lens, Frederic; Feild, Taylor S; Isnard, Sandrine; Olson, Mark E; Delzon, Sylvain

2017-02-01

Increases in drought-induced tree mortality are being observed in tropical rain forests worldwide and are also likely to affect the geographical distribution of tropical vegetation. However, the mechanisms underlying the drought vulnerability and environmental distribution of tropical species have been little studied. We measured vulnerability to xylem embolism (P 50 ) of 13 woody species endemic to New Caledonia and with different xylem conduit morphologies. We examined the relation between P 50 , along with other leaf and xylem functional traits, and a range of habitat variables. Selected species had P 50 values ranging between -4.03 and -2.00 MPa with most species falling in a narrow range of resistance to embolism above -2.7 MPa. Embolism vulnerability was significantly correlated with elevation, mean annual temperature and percentage of species occurrences located in rain forest habitats. Xylem conduit type did not explain variation in P 50 . Commonly used functional traits such as wood density and leaf traits were not related to embolism vulnerability. Xylem embolism vulnerability stands out among other commonly used functional traits as a major driver of species environmental distribution. Drought-induced xylem embolism vulnerability behaves as a physiological trait closely associated with the habitat occupation of rain forest woody species. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

Evaluation of New Zealand’s High-Seas Bottom Trawl Closures Using Predictive Habitat Models and Quantitative Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Penney, Andrew J.; Guinotte, John M.

2013-01-01

United Nations General Assembly Resolution 61/105 on sustainable fisheries (UNGA 2007) establishes three difficult questions for participants in high-seas bottom fisheries to answer: 1) Where are vulnerable marine systems (VMEs) likely to occur?; 2) What is the likelihood of fisheries interaction with these VMEs?; and 3) What might qualify as adequate conservation and management measures to prevent significant adverse impacts? This paper develops an approach to answering these questions for bottom trawling activities in the Convention Area of the South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO) within a quantitative risk assessment and cost : benefit analysis framework. The predicted distribution of deep-sea corals from habitat suitability models is used to answer the first question. Distribution of historical bottom trawl effort is used to answer the second, with estimates of seabed areas swept by bottom trawlers being used to develop discounting factors for reduced biodiversity in previously fished areas. These are used in a quantitative ecological risk assessment approach to guide spatial protection planning to address the third question. The coral VME likelihood (average, discounted, predicted coral habitat suitability) of existing spatial closures implemented by New Zealand within the SPRFMO area is evaluated. Historical catch is used as a measure of cost to industry in a cost : benefit analysis of alternative spatial closure scenarios. Results indicate that current closures within the New Zealand SPRFMO area bottom trawl footprint are suboptimal for protection of VMEs. Examples of alternative trawl closure scenarios are provided to illustrate how the approach could be used to optimise protection of VMEs under chosen management objectives, balancing protection of VMEs against economic loss to commercial fishers from closure of historically fished areas. PMID:24358162

[The assessment of vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level].

PubMed

Zhu, Qi; Liu, Tao; Zhang, Yong-hui; Luo, Yuan; Wei, Yao; Xiao, Jian-peng; Zeng, Si-qing; Ma, Wen-jun

2012-11-01

To evaluate the vulnerability to floods in Guangdong province at district level. Data were collected from the sixth census, the 2010 Statistical Yearbook of Guangdong, the 2010 Health Statistics Yearbook of Guangdong and China Disease Prevention and Control information systems, etc. The weight of each indicator was determined based on subjective method and objective method respectively; and finally the results of the two methods were compared. 13 indicators were selected for the assessment of vulnerability to floods, including 6 sensitivity indicators, 5 adaptability indicators and 2 exposure indicators. Indicators with large weight (subjective weight/objective weight) were the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.31/0.30), the proportion of population older than 65 years old (0.16/0.23), infant mortality rate (0.18/0.20), the total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (0.33/0.21), the proportion of illiterate in the population older than 15 years old (0.19/0.28), history frequency of floods (0.75/0.75). The mean vulnerability index (VI) calculated by subjective method was 0.35 with the standard deviation of 0.10; the mean vulnerability index calculated by objective method was 0.31 with the standard deviation of 0.08. The two weighting methods showed consistent results of vulnerability index (ICC = 0.975, P < 0.01). VI of most districts dropped in the interval of 0.30 - 0.39. Districts with subjective VI > 0.50 or objective VI > 0.40 should pay more attention to floods, including parts of the coastal areas, Beijiang River Basin, the eastern tributary area of Dongjiang River and the northern part of Pearl River Delta. Dapu district of Meizhou (0.55/0.45), Dianbai district and Maogang district of Maoming (0.54/0.48) were most vulnerable. Districts of Heyuan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing and Huizhou were less vulnerable, Yuancheng district of Heyuan showed least vulnerable to floods (0.15/0.12) followed by Dongguan (0.18/0.16), Duanzhou district (0

Measuring dynamics of household vulnerability in selected coastal megacities to inform transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birkmann, J.; Solecki, W. D.

2016-12-01

Understanding conditions and dynamics of household vulnerability and risk is key for building community resilience. Two different methodological approaches of vulnerability, risk and resilience assessment for selected global megacities are presented to address this research issue. First, an indicator-based approach was executed to compare susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities for Lagos, Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York, and Tokyo on a neighborhood by neighborhood scale. Second, a household survey that has been conducted in Kolkata, Lagos, and New York to explore specific features of susceptibility, risk management capacities and transformations within at risk neighborhoods. The results of both methods underscore the dynamics of vulnerability. Lessons learned for disaster risk management and urban planning are derived, particularly in terms of defining priorities for a more inclusive and resilient urban development, and transformative adaptation. The findings also provide opportunity to critically review the potential outcomes of the New Urban Agenda (outcome of UN-Habitat III). The research has been undertaken within a larger international research team in the Belmont funded project Transformation of Urban Coasts.

Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Yanqiang; Wang, Shijin; Fang, Yiping; Nawaz, Zain

2017-10-01

Animal husbandry is a dominant and traditional source of livelihood and income in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the third largest snow covered area in China and is one of the main snow disaster regions in the world. It is thus imperative to urgently address the issue of vulnerability of the animal husbandry sector to snow disasters for disaster mitigation and adaptation under growing risk of these disasters as a result of future climate change. However, there is very few literature reported on the vulnerability of animal husbandry in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This assessment aims at identifying vulnerability of animal husbandry at spatial scale and to identify the reasons for vulnerability for adaptive planning and disaster mitigation. First, historical snow disaster characteristics have been analyzed and used for the spatial weight for vulnerability assessment. Second, indicator-based vulnerability assessment model and indicator system have been established. We combined risk of snow hazard, sensitivity of livestock to disaster, physical exposure to disaster, and community capacity to adapt to snow disaster in an integrated vulnerability index. Lastly, vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disaster on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been evaluated. Results indicate that high vulnerabilities are mainly concentrated in the eastern and central plateau and that vulnerability decreases gradually from the east to the west. Due to global warming, the vulnerability trend has eased to some extent during the last few decades. High livestock density exposure to blizzard-prone regions and shortages of livestock barn and forage are the main reasons of high vulnerability. The conclusion emphasizes the important role of the local government and community to help local pastoralists for reducing vulnerability to snow disaster and frozen hazard. The approaches presented in this paper can be used for snow disaster mitigation, resilience

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

PubMed

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Assessing the Effects of Water Right Purchases on Stream Temperatures and Fish Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, L.; Null, S. E.

2012-12-01

Warm stream temperature and low flow conditions are limiting factors for native trout species in Nevada's Walker River. Water rights purchases are being considered to increase instream flow and improve habitat conditions. However, the effect of water rights purchases on stream temperatures and fish habitat have yet to be assessed. Manipulating flow conditions affect stream temperatures by altering water depth, velocity, and thermal mass. This study uses the River Modeling System (RMSv4), an hourly, physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality model, to estimate flows and stream temperatures in the Walker River. The model is developed for two wet years (2010-2011). Study results highlight reaches with cold-water habitat that is suitable for native trout species. Previous research on the Walker River has evaluated instream flow changes with water rights purchases. This study incorporates stream temperatures as a proxy for trout habitat, and thus explicitly incorporates water quality and fish habitat into decision-making regarding water rights purchases. Walker River

Transportation security research : coordination needed in selecting and implementing infrastructure vulnerability assessments

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2003-05-01

The Department of Transportation's (DOT) Research and Special Programs Administration (RSPA) began research in to assess the vulnerabilities of the nation's transportation infrastructure and develop needed improvements in security in June 2001. The g...

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

PubMed

Wyatt, Katherine H; Griffin, Robert; Guerry, Anne D; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

PubMed Central

Guerry, Anne D.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K.

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones—with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the Northern Gulf of Mexico to sea-level rise and coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pendleton, E.A.; Barras, J.A.; Williams, S.J.; Twichell, D.C.

2010-01-01

A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise along the Northern Gulf of Mexico from Galveston, TX, to Panama City, FL. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, historical shoreline change rate, mean tidal range, and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable are combined and an index value is calculated for 1-kilometer grid cells along the coast. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. The CVI assessment presented here builds on an earlier assessment conducted for the Gulf of Mexico. Recent higher resolution shoreline change, land loss, elevation, and subsidence data provide the foundation for a better assessment for the Northern Gulf of Mexico. The areas along the Northern Gulf of Mexico that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are parts of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, Teche-Vermillion Basin, and the Mississippi barrier islands, as well as most of the Terrebonne and Barataria Bay region and the Chandeleur Islands. These very high vulnerability areas have the highest rates of relative sea-level rise and the highest rates of shoreline change or land area loss. The information provided by coastal vulnerability assessments can be used in long-term coastal management and policy decision making.

Assessment of Habitat and Streamflow Requirements for Habitat Protection, Usquepaug-Queen River, Rhode Island, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armstrong, David S.; Parker, Gene W.

2003-01-01

The relations among stream habitat and hydrologic conditions were investigated in the Usquepaug?Queen River Basin in southern Rhode Island. Habitats were assessed at 13 sites on the mainstem and tributaries from July 1999 to September 2000. Channel types are predominantly low-gradient glides, pools, and runs that have a sand and gravel streambed and a forest or shrub riparian zone. Along the stream margins,overhanging brush, undercut banks supported by roots, and downed trees create cover; within the channel, submerged aquatic vegetation and woody debris create cover. These habitat features decrease in quality and availability with declining streamflows, and features along stream margins generally become unavailable once streamflows drop to the point at which water recedes from the stream banks. Riffles are less common, but were identified as critical habitat areas because they are among the first to exhibit habitat losses or become unavailable during low-flow periods. Stream-temperature data were collected at eight sites during summer 2000 to indicate the suitability of those reaches for cold-water fish communities. Data indicate stream temperatures provide suitable habitat for cold-water species in the Fisherville and Locke Brook tributaries and in the mainstem Queen River downstream of the confluence with Fisherville Brook. Stream temperatures in the Usquepaug River downstream from Glen Rock Reservoir are about 6?F warmer than in the Queen River upstream from the impoundment. These warmer temperatures may make habitat in the Usquepaug River marginal for cold-water species. Fish-community composition was determined from samples collected at seven sites on tributaries and at three sites on the mainstem Usquepaug?Queen River. Classification of the fish into habitat-use groups and comparison to target fish communities developed for the Quinebaug and Ipswich Rivers indicated that the sampled reaches of the Usquepaug?Queen River contained most of the riverine fish

Comprehensive vulnerability assessment method for nodes considering anti-interference ability and influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; FENG, Hao; LIU, Meijun

2018-03-01

The vulnerability assessment of power grid is of great significance in the current research. Power system faces many kinds of uncertainty factors, and the disturbance caused by them has become one of the main factors which restrict the safe operation of power grid. To solve this problem, considering the anti-interference ability of the system when the system is disturbed and the effect of the system when the node is out of operation, a set of index to reflect the anti-interference ability and the influence of nodes are set up. On this basis, a new comprehensive vulnerability assessment method of nodes is put forward by using super efficiency data envelopment analysis to scientific integration. Finally, the simulative results of IEEE30-bus system indicated that the proposed model is rational and valid.

Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability at the Local Level: A Case Study on the Dniester River Basin (Moldova)

PubMed Central

Sîrodoev, Igor; Koeppel, Sonja; Denisov, Nickolai; Sîrodoev, Ghennadi

2013-01-01

Vulnerability to climate change of the Moldavian part of the Dniester river was assessed as the function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of its basin's natural and socioeconomic systems. As a spatial “scale” of the assessment, Moldova's administrative-territorial units (ATUs) were selected. The exposure assessment was based on the climatic analysis of baseline (1971–2000) temperature and precipitation and projections of their changes in 2021–2050, separately for cold and warm periods. The sensitivity assessment included physiographical and socioeconomic characteristics, described by a set of specific indicators. The adaptive capacity was expressed by general economic and agricultural indicators, taking into consideration the medical provision and housing conditions. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks, arranged in an increasing and decreasing order, respectively. Due to lack of sound knowledge on these components' importance in overall assessment of vulnerability, their weights were taken as conventionally equal. Mapping of vulnerability revealed that ATUs neighboring to municipalities are the most vulnerable and need special attention in climate change adaptation. The basin's “hotspots” were discussed with public participation. PMID:23766677

Case Studies of Water Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment [External Review Draft Report

EPA Science Inventory

This report presents a series of case studies describing the approaches taken by four water utilities in the United States to assess their vulnerability to climate change. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive listing of assessment approaches or utilities conducting v...

An holistic view on aquifer vulnerability based on a distinction of different types of vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Luca, Domenico Antonio; Lasagna, Manuela; Franchino, Elisa

2016-04-01

AN HOLISTIC VIEW ON AQUIFER VULNERABILITY BASED ON A DISTINCTION OF DIFFERENT TYPES OF VULNERABILITY D.A. De Luca1 , M. Lasagna1, E. Franchino1 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin The concept of vulnerability is certainly useful in the field of groundwater protection. Nevertheless, within the scientific community, the definition of groundwater vulnerability is still debatable and not clear and conclusive. This is probably due to the fact that researchers often have very different experiences and education. A positive effect of it is a constant exchange of ideas, but there are also negative consequences and difficulties in deepening the issue. The different approaches are very important but they are usable only if the concept of vulnerability is standardized: thus, for the sake of clarity, a number of definitions should be laid down, based on the different types of vulnerability. These definitions can then provide the necessary holistic view for the aquifer vulnerability assessment. Nowadays vulnerability methods focus on the degree of vulnerability and the parameters needed for its evaluation, often neglecting to clarify what is the type of vulnerability the proposed methods are referred. The type of vulnerability, indeed, is both logically and hierarchically superior to the degree of vulnerability. More specifically the type of vulnerability represents the evaluation of the hydrogeological conditions considered in the vulnerability assessment and able to influence the way in which the contamination can take place. Currently the only distinction, based on of the type of vulnerability, is referred to intrinsic and specific vulnerability. Intrinsic vulnerability assesses the susceptibility of the receptor based on the natural properties of the land and subsurface; specific vulnerability also includes properties of the analyzed contaminant. This distinction is useful but not exhaustive. In addition to this, e.g., a distinction of vertical vulnerability

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Development of a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-08-01

This research develops a decision support tool for assessing vulnerability of transportation networks. This report consists of 1) describing the trends of freight movements in Utah, 2) identifying the current and potential freight chokepoints/bottlen...

Factor weighting in DRASTIC modelling for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in Salatiga groundwater basin, Central Java Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kesuma, D. A.; Purwanto, P.; Putranto, T. T.; Rahmani, T. P. D.

2017-06-01

The increase in human population as well as area development in Salatiga Groundwater Basin, Central Java Province, will increase the potency of groundwater contamination in that area. Groundwater quality, especially the shallow groundwater, is very vulnerable to the contamination from industrial waste, fertilizer/agricultural waste, and domestic waste. The first step in the conservation of groundwater quality is by conducting the mapping of the groundwater vulnerability zonation against the contamination. The result of this research was groundwater vulnerability map which showed the areas vulnerable to the groundwater contamination. In this study, groundwater vulnerability map was assessed based on the DRASTIC Method and was processed spatially using Geographic Information System. The DRASTIC method is used to assess the level of groundwater vulnerability based on weighting on seven parameters, which are: depth to the water table (D), recharge (R), aquifer material (A), soil media (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I), and hydraulic conductivity (C). The higher the DRASTIC Index will result in the higher vulnerability level of groundwater contamination in that area. The DRASTIC Indexes in the researched area were 85 - 100 (low vulnerability level), 101 -120 (low to moderate vulnerability level), 121 - 140 (moderate vulnerability level), 141 - 150, (moderate to high vulnerability level), and 151 - 159 (high vulnerability level). The output of this study can be used by local authority as a tool for consideration to arrange the policy for sustainable area development, especially the development in an area affecting the quality of Salatiga Groundwater Basin.

Novel method of vulnerability assessment of simple landfills area using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Ying; He, Xiao-Song; Xi, Bei-Dou; Wei, Zi-Min; Tan, Wen-Bing; Gao, Ru-Tai

2016-11-01

Vulnerability assessment of simple landfills was conducted using the multimedia, multipathway and multireceptor risk assessment (3MRA) model for the first time in China. The minimum safe threshold of six contaminants (benzene, arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)], divalent mercury [Hg(II)] and divalent nickel [Ni(II)]) in landfill and waste pile models were calculated by the 3MRA model. Furthermore, the vulnerability indexes of the six contaminants were predicted based on the model calculation. The results showed that the order of health risk vulnerability index was As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > benzene > Cd > Ni(II) in the landfill model, whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of As > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > Cd > benzene > Ni(II). In the waste pile model, the order of health risk vulnerability index was benzene > Hg(II) > Cr(VI) > As > Cd and Ni(II), whereas the ecology risk vulnerability index was in the order of Hg(II) > Cd > Cr(VI) > As > benzene > Ni(II). These results indicated that As, Hg(II) and Cr(VI) were the high risk contaminants for the case of a simple landfill in China; the concentration of these in soil and groundwater around the simple landfill should be strictly monitored, and proper mediation is also recommended for simple landfills with a high concentration of contaminants. © The Author(s) 2016.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment using hydrogeologic and geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing at Igbara Oke, Southwestern Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, T. E.; Omosuyi, G. O.; Akinlalu, A. A.

2017-12-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment was carried out at Igbara Oke Southwestern Nigeria, with a view to classify the area into vulnerability zones, by applying the electrical resistivity method, using Schlumberger electrode arrays with maximum electrode separation (AB/2) of 65 m in (41) different locations for data acquisition. Geoelectric parameters (layer resistivity and thickness) were determined from the interpreted data. The study area comprises four geoelectric layers (topsoil, lateritic layer, weathered/fractured layer and fresh basement). The geoelectric parameters of the overlying layers across the area were used to assess the vulnerability of the underlying aquifers to near-surface contaminants with the aid of vulnerability maps generated. Three models were compared by maps using geo-electrically derived models; longitudinal conductance, GOD (groundwater occurrence, overlying lithology and depth to the aquifer) and GLSI (geoelectric layer susceptibility indexing). The total longitudinal conductance map shows the north central part of the study area as a weakly protected (0.1-0.19) area, while the northern and southern parts have poor protective capacity (<0.1); this is in agreement with the GOD method which shows the northern part of the study area as less vulnerable (0-0.1) while the southern part has low/moderate (0.1-0.3) vulnerability to contamination. The longitudinal conductance exaggerates the degree of susceptibility to contamination than the GOD and GLSI models. From the models, vulnerability to contamination can be considered higher at the southern part than the northern part and therefore, sources of contamination like septic tank, refuse dump should be cited far from groundwater development area.

The drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhiqiang; Jiang, Jingyi; Ma, Qing

2016-12-01

Climate change is affecting every aspect of human activities, especially the agriculture. In China, extreme drought events caused by climate change have posed a great threat to food safety. In this work we aimed to study the drought risk of maize in the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China based on physical vulnerability assessment. The physical vulnerability curve was constructed from the relationship between drought hazard intensity index and yield loss rate. The risk assessment of agricultural drought was conducted from the drought hazard intensity index and physical vulnerability curve. The probability distribution of drought hazard intensity index decreased from south-west to north-east and increased from south-east to north-west along the rainfall isoline. The physical vulnerability curve had a reduction effect in three parts of the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, which helped to reduce drought hazard vulnerability on spring maize. The risk of yield loss ratio calculated based on physical vulnerability curve was lower compared with the drought hazard intensity index, which suggested that the capacity of spring maize to resist and adapt to drought is increasing. In conclusion, the farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China is greatly sensitive to climate change and has a high probability of severe drought hazard. Risk assessment of physical vulnerability can help better understand the physical vulnerability to agricultural drought and can also promote measurements to adapt to climate change.

Alpine bird distributions along elevation gradients: the consistency of climate and habitat effects across geographic regions.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Dan; Brambilla, Mattia; Caprio, Enrico; Pedrini, Paolo; Rolando, Antonio

2016-08-01

Many species have shown recent shifts in their distributions in response to climate change. Patterns in species occurrence or abundance along altitudinal gradients often serve as the basis for detecting such changes and assessing future sensitivity. Quantifying the distribution of species along altitudinal gradients acts as a fundamental basis for future studies on environmental change impacts, but in order for models of altitudinal distribution to have wide applicability, it is necessary to know the extent to which altitudinal trends in occurrence are consistent across geographically separated areas. This was assessed by fitting models of bird species occurrence across altitudinal gradients in relation to habitat and climate variables in two geographically separated alpine regions, Piedmont and Trentino. The ten species studied showed non-random altitudinal distributions which in most cases were consistent across regions in terms of pattern. Trends in relation to altitude and differences between regions could be explained mostly by habitat or a combination of habitat and climate variables. Variation partitioning showed that most variation explained by the models was attributable to habitat, or habitat and climate together, rather than climate alone or geographic region. The shape and position of the altitudinal distribution curve is important as it can be related to vulnerability where the available space is limited, i.e. where mountains are not of sufficient altitude for expansion. This study therefore suggests that incorporating habitat and climate variables should be sufficient to construct models with high transferability for many alpine species.

Climate change and vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a fire-prone landscape.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Falke, Jeffrey A.; Flitcroft, Rebecca L; Dunham, Jason B.; McNyset, Kristina M.; Hessburg, Paul F.; Reeves, Gordon H.

2015-01-01

Linked atmospheric and wildfire changes will complicate future management of native coldwater fishes in fire-prone landscapes, and new approaches to management that incorporate uncertainty are needed to address this challenge. We used a Bayesian network (BN) approach to evaluate population vulnerability of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Wenatchee River basin, Washington, USA, under current and future climate and fire scenarios. The BN was based on modeled estimates of wildfire, water temperature, and physical habitat prior to, and following, simulated fires throughout the basin. We found that bull trout population vulnerability depended on the extent to which climate effects can be at least partially offset by managing factors such as habitat connectivity and fire size. Moreover, our analysis showed that local management can significantly reduce the vulnerability of bull trout to climate change given appropriate management actions. Tools such as our BN that explicitly integrate the linked nature of climate and wildfire, and incorporate uncertainty in both input data and vulnerability estimates, will be vital in effective future management to conserve native coldwater fishes.

Temperature influences habitat preference of coral reef fishes: Will generalists become more specialised in a warming ocean?

PubMed

Matis, Paloma A; Donelson, Jennifer M; Bush, Stephen; Fox, Rebecca J; Booth, David J

2018-07-01

Climate change is expected to pose a significant risk to species that exhibit strong behavioural preferences for specific habitat types, with generalist species assumed to be less vulnerable. In this study, we conducted habitat choice experiments to determine how water temperature influences habitat preference for three common species of coral reef damselfish (Pomacentridae) that differ in their levels of habitat specialisation. The lemon damselfish Pomacentrus moluccensis, a habitat specialist, consistently selected complex coral habitat across all temperature treatments (selected based on local average seasonal temperatures naturally experienced in situ: ambient winter 22°C; ambient summer 28°C; and elevated 31°C). Unexpectedly, the neon damselfish Pomacentrus coelestis and scissortail sergeant Abudefduf sexfasciatus, both of which have more generalist habitat associations, developed strong habitat preferences (for complex coral and boulder habitat, respectively) at the elevated temperature treatment (31°C) compared to no single preferred habitat at 22°C or 28°C. The observed shifts in habitat preference with temperature suggest that we may be currently underestimating the vulnerability of some habitat generalists to climate change and highlight that the ongoing loss of complex live coral through coral bleaching could further exacerbate resource overlap and species competition in ways not currently considered in climate change models. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY TO NONPOINT SOURCE POLLUTION IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents a probabilistic framework for the assessment of groundwater pollution potential by pesticides in two adjacent agricultural watersheds in the Mid-Altantic Coastal Plain. Indices for estimating streams vulnerability to pollutants' load from the surficial aquifer...

CLASSIFYING OREGON ESTUARIES BY HABITAT: ANALYSIS OF EXISTING DATA AND A PROPOSAL FOR A PILOT STUDY

EPA Science Inventory

Because many estuarine resources are linked to benthic habitats, classification of estuaries by habitat types may prove a relevant approach for grouping estuaries with similar ecological values and vulnerability to landscape alterations. As a first step, we evaluated whether pub...

The northern goshawk in Utah: Habitat assessment and management recommendations

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Ronald L. Rodriguez; Kathleen M. Paulin; Rodney L. Player; Arlene P. Heap; Richard Williams

1999-01-01

This assessment describes northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) habitat in the State of Utah. Because of fire exclusion, insect and disease epidemics, timber harvest, livestock grazing, or a combination of these factors the forests and woodlands of Utah have changed drastically since the early 1900's. Forests are now dominated by mid- and late...

An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations toImpacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-07-01

ER D C/ CE RL T R- 17 -2 5 Army Environmental Quality Technology An Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army...Evaluation of Methods for Assessing Vulnerability of Army Installations to Impacts of Climate Change on Listed and At-Risk Species Matthew G. Hohmann...their suitability for informing BRAC-related evaluations. Three recently developed methods for assessing the vulnerability of Army installations to

Effectiveness evaluation of objective and subjective weighting methods for aquifer vulnerability assessment in urban context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Madhumita; Sahoo, Satiprasad; Dhar, Anirban; Pradhan, Biswajeet

2016-10-01

Groundwater vulnerability assessment has been an accepted practice to identify the zones with relatively increased potential for groundwater contamination. DRASTIC is the most popular secondary information-based vulnerability assessment approach. Original DRASTIC approach considers relative importance of features/sub-features based on subjective weighting/rating values. However variability of features at a smaller scale is not reflected in this subjective vulnerability assessment process. In contrast to the subjective approach, the objective weighting-based methods provide flexibility in weight assignment depending on the variation of the local system. However experts' opinion is not directly considered in the objective weighting-based methods. Thus effectiveness of both subjective and objective weighting-based approaches needs to be evaluated. In the present study, three methods - Entropy information method (E-DRASTIC), Fuzzy pattern recognition method (F-DRASTIC) and Single parameter sensitivity analysis (SA-DRASTIC), were used to modify the weights of the original DRASTIC features to include local variability. Moreover, a grey incidence analysis was used to evaluate the relative performance of subjective (DRASTIC and SA-DRASTIC) and objective (E-DRASTIC and F-DRASTIC) weighting-based methods. The performance of the developed methodology was tested in an urban area of Kanpur City, India. Relative performance of the subjective and objective methods varies with the choice of water quality parameters. This methodology can be applied without/with suitable modification. These evaluations establish the potential applicability of the methodology for general vulnerability assessment in urban context.

Building vulnerability to hydro-geomorphic hazards: Estimating damage probability from qualitative vulnerability assessment using logistic regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettinger, Susanne; Mounaud, Loïc; Magill, Christina; Yao-Lafourcade, Anne-Françoise; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Manville, Vern; Negulescu, Caterina; Zuccaro, Giulio; De Gregorio, Daniela; Nardone, Stefano; Uchuchoque, Juan Alexis Luque; Arguedas, Anita; Macedo, Luisa; Manrique Llerena, Nélida

2016-10-01

The focus of this study is an analysis of building vulnerability through investigating impacts from the 8 February 2013 flash flood event along the Avenida Venezuela channel in the city of Arequipa, Peru. On this day, 124.5 mm of rain fell within 3 h (monthly mean: 29.3 mm) triggering a flash flood that inundated at least 0.4 km2 of urban settlements along the channel, affecting more than 280 buildings, 23 of a total of 53 bridges (pedestrian, vehicle and railway), and leading to the partial collapse of sections of the main road, paralyzing central parts of the city for more than one week. This study assesses the aspects of building design and site specific environmental characteristics that render a building vulnerable by considering the example of a flash flood event in February 2013. A statistical methodology is developed that enables estimation of damage probability for buildings. The applied method uses observed inundation height as a hazard proxy in areas where more detailed hydrodynamic modeling data is not available. Building design and site-specific environmental conditions determine the physical vulnerability. The mathematical approach considers both physical vulnerability and hazard related parameters and helps to reduce uncertainty in the determination of descriptive parameters, parameter interdependency and respective contributions to damage. This study aims to (1) enable the estimation of damage probability for a certain hazard intensity, and (2) obtain data to visualize variations in damage susceptibility for buildings in flood prone areas. Data collection is based on a post-flood event field survey and the analysis of high (sub-metric) spatial resolution images (Pléiades 2012, 2013). An inventory of 30 city blocks was collated in a GIS database in order to estimate the physical vulnerability of buildings. As many as 1103 buildings were surveyed along the affected drainage and 898 buildings were included in the statistical analysis. Univariate and

Landscape genetics in the subterranean rodent Ctenomys "chasiquensis" associated with highly disturbed habitats from the southeastern Pampas region, Argentina.

PubMed

Mora, Matías Sebastián; Mapelli, Fernando J; López, Aldana; Gómez Fernández, María Jimena; Mirol, Patricia M; Kittlein, Marcelo J

2017-12-01

Studies of genetic differentiation in fragmented environments help us to identify those landscape features that most affect gene flow and dispersal patterns. Particularly, the assessment of the relative significance of intrinsic biological and environmental factors affecting the genetic structure of populations becomes crucial. In this work, we assess the current dispersal patterns and population structure of Ctenomys "chasiquensis", a vulnerable and endemic subterranean rodent distributed on a small area in Central Argentina, using 9 polymorphic microsatellite loci. We use landscape genetics approaches to assess the relationship between genetic connectivity among populations and environmental attributes. Our analyses show that populations of C. "chasiquensis" are moderately to highly structured at a regional level. This pattern is most likely the outcome of substantial gene flow on the more homogeneous sand dune habitat of the Northwest of its distributional range, in conjunction with an important degree of isolation of eastern and southwestern populations, where the optimal habitat is surrounded by a highly fragmented landscape. Landscape genetics analysis suggests that habitat quality and longitude were the environmental factors most strongly associated with genetic differentiation/uniqueness of populations. In conclusion, our results indicate an important genetic structure in this species, even at a small spatial scale, suggesting that contemporary habitat fragmentation increases population differentiation.

Assessing Impacts of Hydropower Regulation on Salmonid Habitat Connectivity to Guide River Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buddendorf, Bas; Geris, Josie; Malcolm, Iain; Wilkinson, Mark; Soulsby, Chris

2016-04-01

Anthropogenic activity in riverine ecosystems has led to a substantial divergence from the natural state of many rivers globally. Many of Scotland's rivers have been regulated for hydropower with increasing intensity since the 1890s. At the same time they sustain substantial populations of Atlantic Salmon (Salmo salar L.), which have a range of requirements in terms of flow and access to habitat, depending on the different life-stages. River barriers for hydropower regulation can change the spatial and temporal connectivity within river networks, the impacts of which on salmon habitat are not fully understood. Insight into such changes in connectivity, and the link with the distribution and accessibility of suitable habitat and areas of high productivity, are essential to aid restoration and/or conservation efforts. This is because they indicate where such efforts might have a higher chance of being successful in terms of providing suitable habitat and increasing river productivity. In this study we applied a graph theory approach to assess historic (natural) and contemporary (regulated) in-stream habitat connectivity of the River Lyon, an important UK salmon river that is moderately regulated for hydropower. Historic maps and GIS techniques were used to construct the two contrasting river networks (i.e., natural vs. regulated). Subsequently, connectivity metrics were used to assess the impacts of hydropower infrastructure on upstream and downstream migration possibilities for adults and juveniles, respectively. A national juvenile salmon production model was used to weight the importance of reaches for juvenile salmon production. Results indicate that the impact of barriers in the Lyon on the connectivity indices depends on the type of barrier and its location within the network, but is generally low for both adults and juveniles, and that compared to the historic river network the reduction in the amount of suitable habitat and juvenile production is most marked

A Guide to School Vulnerability Assessments: Key Principles for Safe Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Office of Safe and Drug-Free Schools, US Department of Education, 2008

2008-01-01

Crises affect schools across the country every day. While natural hazards such as tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes may be thought of more commonly as emergencies, schools are also at risk from other hazards such as school violence, infectious disease, and terrorist threats. Through the vulnerability assessment process, schools can…

Assessing vulnerability of marine bird populations to offshore wind farms.

PubMed

Furness, Robert W; Wade, Helen M; Masden, Elizabeth A

2013-04-15

Offshore wind farms may affect bird populations through collision mortality and displacement. Given the pressures to develop offshore wind farms, there is an urgent need to assess population-level impacts on protected marine birds. Here we refine an approach to assess aspects of their ecology that influence population vulnerability to wind farm impacts, also taking into account the conservation importance of each species. Flight height appears to be a key factor influencing collision mortality risk but improved data on flight heights of marine birds are needed. Collision index calculations identify populations of gulls, white-tailed eagles, northern gannets and skuas as of particularly high concern in Scottish waters. Displacement index calculations identify populations of divers and common scoters as most vulnerable to population-level impacts of displacement, but these are likely to be less evident than impacts of collision mortality. The collision and displacement indices developed here for Scottish marine bird populations could be applied to populations elsewhere, and this approach will help in identifying likely impacts of future offshore wind farms on marine birds and prioritising monitoring programmes, at least until data on macro-avoidance rates become available. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Methodology for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cirianni, Francis; Leonardi, Giovanni; Scopelliti, Francesco

2008-07-08

Modern society is totally dependent on a complex and articulated infrastructure network of vital importance for the existence of the urban settlements scattered on the territory. On these infrastructure systems, usually indicated with the term lifelines, are entrusted numerous services and indispensable functions of the normal urban and human activity.The systems of the lifelines represent an essential element in all the urbanised areas which are subject to seismic risk. It is important that, in these zones, they are planned according to opportune criteria based on two fundamental assumptions: a) determination of the best territorial localization, avoiding, within limits, the placesmore » of higher dangerousness; b) application of constructive technologies finalized to the reduction of the vulnerability.Therefore it is indispensable that in any modern process of seismic risk assessment the study of the networks is taken in the rightful consideration, to be integrated with the traditional analyses of the buildings.The present paper moves in this direction, dedicating particular attention to one kind of lifeline: the highway system, proposing a methodology of analysis finalized to the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of the system.« less

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta’s biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as ‘extremely invasive’, with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is ‘extremely invasive’ with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is ‘highly invasive’ with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change. PMID:27768758

REGIONAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT (REVA): TARGETING RISK MANAGEMENT ACTIONS AND PROVIDING OPTIONS FOR INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is an approach to regional scale, priority-setting assessment being developed by EPA's Office of Research and Development (ORD). ReVA will effectively informs decision-makers as to the magnitude, extent, distribution, and unc...

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability

A new approach to flood vulnerability assessment for historic buildings in England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephenson, V.; D'Ayala, D.

2014-05-01

The recent increase in frequency and severity of flooding in the UK has led to a shift in the perception of risk associated with flood hazards. This has extended to the conservation community, and the risks posed to historic structures that suffer from flooding are particularly concerning for those charged with preserving and maintaining such buildings. In order to fully appraise the risks in a manner appropriate to the complex issue of preservation, a new methodology is presented here that studies the nature of the vulnerability of such structures, and places it in the context of risk assessment, accounting for the vulnerable object and the subsequent exposure of that object to flood hazards. The testing of the methodology is carried out using three urban case studies and the results of the survey analysis provide guidance on the development of fragility curves for historic structures exposed to flooding. This occurs through appraisal of vulnerability indicators related to building form, structural and fabric integrity, and preservation of architectural and archaeological values. Key findings of the work include determining the applicability of these indicators to fragility analysis, and the determination of the relative vulnerability of the three case study sites.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

PubMed

Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using occupancy and population models to assess habitat conservation opportunities for an isolated carnivore population

Treesearch

Wayne Spencer; Heather Rustigian-Romsos; James Strittholt; Robert Scheller; William Zielinski; Richard Truex

2011-01-01

An isolated population of the fisher (Martes pennanti) in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, is threatened by small size and habitat alteration from wildfires, fuels management, and other factors. We assessed the population’s status and conservation options for its habitat using a spatially explicit population model coupled with a...

The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

2014-01-01

Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

Tsunami Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk assessment for the coast of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez, Mauricio; Aniel-Quiroga, Íñigo; Aguirre-Ayerbe, Ignacio; Álvarez-Gómez, José Antonio; MArtínez, Jara; Gonzalez-Riancho, Pino; Fernandez, Felipe; Medina, Raúl; Al-Yahyai, Sultan

2016-04-01

Tsunamis are relatively infrequent phenomena representing a greater threat than earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes, and causing the loss of thousands of human lives and extensive damage to coastal infrastructures around the world. Advances in the understanding and prediction of tsunami impacts allow the development of new methodologies in this field. This work presents the methodology that has been followed for developing the tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment for the coast of Oman, including maps containing the results of the process. Oman is located in the south eastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula and of the Arabian plate, in front of the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), which is the major source of earthquakes in the eastern border of the Arabian plate and Oman (Al-Shaqsi, 2012). There are at least three historical tsunamis assigned to seismic origin in the MSZ (Heidarzadeh et al., 2008; Jordan, 2008). These events show the high potential for tsunami generation of the MSZ, being one of the most tsunamigenic zones in the Indian Ocean. For the tsunami hazard assessment, worst potential cases have been selected, as well as the historical case of 1945, when an 8.1 earthquake generated a tsunami affecting the coast of Oman, and prompting 4000 casualties in the countries of the area. These scenarios have been computationally simulated in order to get tsunami hazard maps, including flooding maps. These calculations have been carried out at national and local scale, in 9 municipalities all along the coast of Oman, including the cities of Sohar, Wudam, Sawadi, Muscat, Quriyat, Sur, Masirah, Al Duqm, and Salalah. Using the hazard assessment as input, this work presents as well an integrated framework for the tsunami vulnerability and risk assessment carried out in the Sultanate of Oman. This framework considers different dimensions (human, structural) and it is developed at two different spatial resolutions, national and local scale. The national

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

Treesearch

T. C. McDonnell; M. R. Sloat; T. J. Sullivan; C. A. Dolloff; P. F. Hessburg; N. A. Povak; W. A Jackson; C. Sams

2015-01-01

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on...

Physical assessment of coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence in Semarang, Indonesia, using multi-sensor satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Husnayaen; Rimba, A. Besse; Osawa, Takahiro; Parwata, I. Nyoman Sudi; As-syakur, Abd. Rahman; Kasim, Faizal; Astarini, Ida Ayu

2018-04-01

Research has been conducted in Semarang, Indonesia, to assess coastal vulnerability under enhanced land subsidence using multi-sensor satellite data, including the Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band SAR (PALSAR), Landsat TM, IKONOS, and TOPEX/Poseidon. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was constructed to estimate the level of vulnerability of a coastline approximately 48.68 km in length using seven physical variables, namely, land subsidence, relative sea level change, coastal geomorphology, coastal slope, shoreline change, mean tidal range, and significant wave height. A comparison was also performed between a CVI calculated using seven parameters and a CVI using six parameters, the latter of which excludes the land subsidence parameter, to determine the effects of land subsidence during the coastal vulnerability assessment. This study showed that the accuracy of coastal vulnerability was increased 40% by adding the land subsidence factor (i.e., CVI 6 parameters = 53%, CVI 7 parameters = 93%). Moreover, Kappa coefficient indicated very good agreement (0.90) for CVI 7 parameters and fair agreement (0.3) for CVI 6 parameters. The results indicate that the area of very high vulnerability increased by 7% when land subsidence was added. Hence, using the CVI calculation including land subsidence parameters, the very high vulnerability area is determined to be 20% of the total coastline or 9.7 km of the total 48.7 km of coastline. This study proved that land subsidence has significant influence on coastal vulnerability in Semarang.

Physical aquatic habitat assessment, Fort Randall segment of the Missouri River, Nebraska and South Dakota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Elliott, Caroline M.; Jacobson, Robert B.; DeLonay, Aaron J.

2004-01-01

This study addressed habitat availability and use by endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the Fort Randall segment of the Missouri River. Physical aquatic habitat - depth, velocity, and substrate - was mapped in 15 sites in Augsust and October of 2002. Habitat assessments were compared with fish locations using radio telemetry. Results indicate that pallid sturgeon preferentially use locations in the Fort Randall segment deeper than the average available habitat, with prominent usage peaks aat 3.5-4.0 m and 6-6.5 m, compared to the modal availability at 3-3.5 m. The fish use habitats with a modal velocity of 80 cm/s; the used velocities appear to be in proportion to their availability. Fish located preferentially over sand substrate and seemed to avoid mud and submerged vegetation.

Evaluation of habitat suitability index models for assessing biotic resources

Treesearch

John C. Rennie; Joseph D. Clark; James M. Sweeney

2000-01-01

Existing habitat suitability index (HSI) models are evaluated for assessing the biotic resources on Champion International Corporation (CIC) lands with data from a standard and an expanded timber inventory. Forty HSI models for 34 species that occur in the Southern Appalachians have been identified from the literature. All of the variables for 14 models are provided (...

Multi-level significance of vulnerability indicators. Case study: Eastern Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanga, I. C.; Grozavu, A.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment aims, most frequently, to emphasize internal fragility of a system comparing to a reference standard, to similar systems or in relation to a given hazard. Internal fragility, either biophysical or structural, may affect the capacity to predict, to prepare for, to cope with or to recover from a disaster. Thus, vulnerability is linked to resilience and adaptive capacity. From local level to global one, vulnerability factors and corresponding indicators are different and their significance must be tested and validated in a well-structured conceptual and methodological framework. In this paper, the authors aim to show the real vulnerability of rural settlements in Eastern Romania in a multi-level approach. The research area, Tutova Hills, counts about 3421 sq.km and more than 200.000 inhabitants in 421 villages characterized by deficient accessibility, lack of endowments, subsistential agriculture, high pressure on natural environment (especially on forest and soil resources), poverty and aging process of population. Factors that could influence the vulnerability of these rural settlements have been inventoried and assigned into groups through a cluster analysis: habitat and technical urban facilities, infrastructure, economical, social and demographical indicators, environment quality, management of emergency situations etc. Firstly, the main difficulty was to convert qualitative variable in quantitative indicators and to standardize all values to make possible mathematical and statistical processing of data. Secondly, the great variability of vulnerability factors, their different measuring units and their high amplitude of variation require different method of standardization in order to obtain values between zero (minimum vulnerability) and one (maximum vulnerability). Final vulnerability indicators were selected and integrated in a general scheme, according to their significance resulted from an appropriate factor analysis: linear and

Evaluating the importance of human-modified lands for neotropical bird conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petit, L.J.; Petit, D.R.

2003-01-01

Development of effective conservation plans for terrestrial animals will require some assessment of which human-modified and natural habitats can support populations of priority species. We examined bird communities associated with 11 natural and human-modified habitats in Panama and assessed the importance of those habitats for species of different vulnerability to disturbance. We calculated habitat importance scores using both relative habitat preferences and vulnerability scores for all species present. Species of moderate and high vulnerability were primarily those categorized as forest specialists or forest generalists. As expected, even species-rich nonforest habitats provided little conservation value for the most vulnerable species. However, shaded coffee plantations and gallery forest corridors were modified habitats with relatively high conservation value. Sugar cane fields and Caribbean pine plantations offered virtually no conservation value for birds. Our method of assessing the conservation importance of different habitats is useful because it considers the types of species present and the potential role of the habitat in the conservation of those species (i.e., habitat preference). This method of habitat evaluation could be tailored to other conservation contexts with any measure of species vulnerability desired.

California golden trout and climate change: Is their stream habitat vulnerable to climate warming?

Treesearch

Kathleen R. Matthews

2010-01-01

The California golden trout (CGT) Oncorhynchus mykiss aguabonita is one of the few native high-elevation fish in the Sierra Nevada. They are already in trouble because of exotic trout, genetic introgression, and degraded habitat, and now face further stress from climate warming. Their native habitat on the Kern Plateau meadows mostly in the Golden...

Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Kaiser, Lauren R.; Vorsino, Adam E.; Paxton, Eben H.; Jacobi, James D.

2017-01-01

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and pro- ject complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua’i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensi- fied conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these spe- cies were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai’i for these Kaua’i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with

Security and Vulnerability Assessment of Social Media Sites: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhao, Jensen; Zhao, Sherry Y.

2015-01-01

While the growing popularity of social media has brought many benefits to society, it has also resulted in privacy and security threats. The authors assessed the security and vulnerability of 50 social media sites. The findings indicate that most sites (a) posted privacy and security policies but only a minority stated clearly their execution of…

Assessing the suitable habitat for reintroduction of brown trout (Salmo trutta forma fario) in a lowland river: A modeling approach.

PubMed

Boets, Pieter; Gobeyn, Sacha; Dillen, Alain; Poelman, Eddy; Goethals, Peter L M

2018-05-01

Huge efforts have been made during the past decades to improve the water quality and to restore the physical habitat of rivers and streams in western Europe. This has led to an improvement in biological water quality and an increase in fish stocks in many countries. However, several rheophilic fish species such as brown trout are still categorized as vulnerable in lowland streams in Flanders (Belgium). In order to support cost-efficient restoration programs, habitat suitability modeling can be used. In this study, we developed an ensemble of habitat suitability models using metaheuristic algorithms to explore the importance of a large number of environmental variables, including chemical, physical, and hydromorphological characteristics to determine the suitable habitat for reintroduction of brown trout in the Zwalm River basin (Flanders, Belgium), which is included in the Habitats Directive. Mean stream velocity, water temperature, hiding opportunities, and presence of pools or riffles were identified as the most important variables determining the habitat suitability. Brown trout mainly preferred streams with a relatively high mean reach stream velocity (0.2-1 m/s), a low water temperature (7-15°C), and the presence of pools. The ensemble of models indicated that most of the tributaries and headwaters were suitable for the species. Synthesis and applications . Our results indicate that this modeling approach can be used to support river management, not only for brown trout but also for other species in similar geographical regions. Specifically for the Zwalm River basin, future restoration of the physical habitat, removal of the remaining migration barriers and the development of suitable spawning grounds could promote the successful restoration of brown trout.