Structure and mechanics of the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault step-over, San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Sliter, R.; Geist, E.L.; Jachens, R.C.; Jaffe, B.E.; Foxgrover, A.; Hart, P.E.; McCarthy, J.

2003-01-01

A dilatational step-over between the right-lateral Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults lies beneath San Pablo Bay in the San Francisco Bay area. A key seismic hazard issue is whether an earthquake on one of the faults could rupture through the step-over, enhancing its maximum possible magnitude. If ruptures are terminated at the step-over, then another important issue is how strain transfers through the step. We developed a combined seismic reflection and refraction cross section across south San Pablo Bay and found that the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults converge to within 4 km of one another near the surface, about 2 km closer than previously thought. Interpretation of potential field data from San Pablo Bay indicated a low likelihood of strike-slip transfer faults connecting the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults. Numerical simulations suggest that it is possible for a rupture to jump across a 4-km fault gap, although special stressing conditions are probably required (e.g., Harris and Day, 1993, 1999). Slip on the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults is building an extensional pull-apart basin that could contain hazardous normal faults. We investigated strain in the pull-apart using a finite-element model and calculated a ???0.02-MPa/yr differential stressing rate in the step-over on a least-principal-stress orientation nearly parallel to the strike-slip faults where they overlap. A 1- to 10-MPa stress-drop extensional earthquake is expected on normal faults oriented perpendicular to the strike-slip faults every 50-500 years. The last such earthquake might have been the 1898 M 6.0-6.5 shock in San Pablo Bay that apparently produced a small tsunami. Historical hydrographic surveys gathered before and after 1898 indicate abnormal subsidence of the bay floor within the step-over, possibly related to the earthquake. We used a hydrodynamic model to show that a dip-slip mechanism in north San Pablo Bay is the most likely 1898 rupture scenario to have caused the tsunami

Earthquake stress drops and inferred fault strength on the Hayward Fault, east San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, J.L.; Aron, A.

2009-01-01

We study variations in earthquake stress drop with respect to depth, faulting regime, creeping versus locked fault behavior, and wall-rock geology. We use the P-wave displacement spectra from borehole seismic recordings of M 1.0-4.2 earthquakes in the east San Francisco Bay to estimate stress drop using a stack-and-invert empirical Green's function method. The median stress drop is 8.7 MPa, and most stress drops are in the range between 0.4 and 130 MPa. An apparent correlation between stress drop and magnitude is entirely an artifact of the limited frequency band of 4-55 Hz. There is a trend of increasing stress drop with depth, with a median stress drop of ~5 MPa for 1-7 km depth, ~10 MPa for 7-13 km depth, and ~50 MPa deeper than 13 km. We use S=P amplitude ratios measured from the borehole records to better constrain the first-motion focal mechanisms. High stress drops are observed for a deep cluster of thrust-faulting earthquakes. The correlation of stress drops with depth and faulting regime implies that stress drop is related to the applied shear stress. We compare the spatial distribution of stress drops on the Hayward fault to a model of creeping versus locked behavior of the fault and find that high stress drops are concentrated around the major locked patch near Oakland. This also suggests a connection between stress drop and applied shear stress, as the locked patch may experience higher applied shear stress as a result of the difference in cumulative slip or the presence of higher-strength material. The stress drops do not directly correlate with the strength of the proposed wall-rock geology at depth, suggesting that the relationship between fault strength and the strength of the wall rock is complex.

Principal facts for gravity data along the Hayward fault and vicinity, San Francisco Bay area, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ponce, David A.

2001-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) established over 940 gravity stations along the Hayward fault and vicinity. The Hayward fault, regarded as one of the most hazardous faults in northern California (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999), extends for about 90 km from Fremont in the southeast to San Pablo Bay in the northwest. The Hayward fault is predominantly a right-lateral strike-slip fault that forms the western boundary of the East Bay Hills. These data and associated physical property measurement were collected as part of on-going studies to help determine the earthquake hazard potential of major faults within the San Francisco Bay region. Gravity data were collected between latitude 37°30' and 38°15' N and longitude 121°45' and 122°30' W. Gravity stations were located on the following 7.5 minute quadrangles: Newark, Niles, San Leandro, Hayward, Dublin, Oakland West, Oakland East, Las Trampas Ridge, Diablo, Richmond, Briones Valley, Walnut Creek, and Clayton. All data were ultimately tied to primary gravity base station Menlo Park A, located on the campus of the U.S. Geological Survey in Menlo Park, Calif. (latitude 37°27.34' N, longitude 122°10.18' W, observed gravity value 979944.27 mGal).

Slip-parallel seismic lineations on the Northern Hayward Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Cole, A.

1999-01-01

A high-resolution relative earthquake location procedure is used to image the fine-scale seismicity structure of the northern Hayward fault, California. The seismicity defines a narrow, near-vertical fault zone containing horizontal alignments of hypocenters extending along the fault zone. The lineations persist over the 15-year observation interval, implying the localization of conditions on the fault where brittle failure conditions are met. The horizontal orientation of the lineations parallels the slip direction of the fault, suggesting that they are the result of the smearing of frictionally weak material along the fault plane over thousands of years.

Subsurface structure and kinematics of the Calaveras-Hayward fault stepover from three-dimensional Vp and seismicity, San Francisco Bay region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manaker, David M.; Michael, Andrew J.; Burgmann, Roland

2005-01-01

We perform a joint inversion for hypocenters and the 3D P-wave velocity structure of the stepover region using 477 earthquakes. We find strong velocity contrasts across the Calaveras and Hayward faults, corroborated by geologic, gravity, and aeromagnetic data. Detailed examination of two seismic lineaments in conjunction with the velocity model and independent geologic and geophysical evidence suggests that they represent the southern extension of a northeasterly dipping Hayward fault that splays off the Calaveras fault, directly accounting for the deep slip transfer. The Mission fault appears to be accommodating deformation within the block between the Hayward and Calaveras faults. Thus, the Calaveras and Hayward faults need to be considered as a single system for developing rupture scenarios for seismic hazard assessments.

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.; Guilderson, T.P.

2010-01-01

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

Variations in creep rate along the Hayward Fault, California, interpreted as changes in depth of creep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, R.W.; Lienkaemper, J.J.; Galehouse, J.S.

2001-01-01

Variations ill surface creep rate along the Hayward fault are modeled as changes in locking depth using 3D boundary elements. Model creep is driven by screw dislocations at 12 km depth under the Hayward and other regional faults. Inferred depth to locking varies along strike from 4-12 km. (12 km implies no locking.) Our models require locked patches under the central Hayward fault, consistent with a M6.8 earthquake in 1868, but the geometry and extent of locking under the north and south ends depend critically on assumptions regarding continuity and creep behavior of the fault at its ends. For the northern onshore part of the fault, our models contain 1.4-1.7 times more stored moment than the model of Bu??rgmann et al. [2000]; 45-57% of this stored moment resides in creeping areas. It is important for seismic hazard estimation to know how much of this moment is released coseismically or as aseismic afterslip.

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 1800 years

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, J.J.; Williams, P.L.

2007-01-01

This is the second article presenting evidence of the occurrence and timing of paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault as interpreted from trenches excavated within a sag pond at the Tyson's Lagoon site in Fremont, California. We use the information to estimate the mean value and aperiodicity of the fault's recurrence interval (RI): two fundamental parameters for estimation of regional seismic hazard. An earlier article documented the four most recent earthquakes, including the historic 1868 earthquake. In this article we present evidence for at least seven earlier paleoruptures since about A.D. 170. We document these events with evidence for ground rupture, such as the presence of blocky colluvium at the base of the main trace fault scarp, and by corroborating evidence such as simultaneous liquefaction or an increase in deformation immediately below event horizons. The mean RI is 170 ?? 82 yr (1??, standard deviation of the sample), aperiodicity is 0.48, and individual intervals may be expected to range from 30 to 370 yr (95.4% confidence). The mean RI is consistent with the recurrence model of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003) (mean, 161 yr; range, 99 yr [2.5%]; 283 yr [97.5%]). We note that the mean RI for the five most recent events may have been only 138 ?? 58 yr (1??). Hypothesis tests for the shorter RI do not demonstrate that any recent acceleration has occurred compared to the earlier period or the entire 1800-yr record, principally because of inherent uncertainties of the event ages.

Status and needs for seismic instrumentation of structures along the Hayward fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, Erol; Çelebi, Mehmet

2008-01-01

The inventory of structures in heavily urbanized communities within the greater San Francisco (SF) Bay area that will experience strong ground motions from the rupture of the Hayward Fault includes a variety of types of recent and older structures built with a variety of materials and to different code standards. Those who remember the effects of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake on structures in the San Francisco Bay area also remember the collapse of one upper-deck segment of the Bay Bridge that halted transportation for approximately five weeks. In order to understand how these structures respond to earthquake motions and to improve building practices to resist these strong motions it is imperative that owners of these structures as well as governmental organizations acquire shaking response data from instrumented (or yet to be instrumented structures) during the forecast events. Within California, such data are acquired mainly by California Geological Survey and the United States Geological Survey. A small number of private owners contribute to this effort. The inventory of existing instrumented structures is much less than 0.1% of the total, and thus statistically it is not sufficient. For example, some of the existing important regular or lifeline structures are not instrumented(e.g. Bart Trans-Bay Tunnel, many segments of the Bart elevated structures in the proximity of the Hayward Fault, the yet to be completed eastern part of San Francisco Bay Bridge, Hetch-Hetchy pipeline system crossing the Hayward Fault)even though attempts and proposals have been developed to do so in the past. This paper presents a critical assessment of the status quo and the future needs for instrumentation of structures in the greater SF Bay area that includes the Hayward Fault. There are many new attempts and successes in instrumentation of structures in this region. Two successful examples are provided here, but more needs to be done. The paper does not present new research results

In search of earthquake-related hydrologic and chemical changes along Hayward Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

King, C.-Y.; Basler, D.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Minissale, A.

1994-01-01

Flow and chemical measurements have been made about once a month, and more frequently when required, since 1976 at two springs in Alum Rock Park in eastern San Jose, California, and since 1980 at two shallow wells in eastern Oakland in search of earthquake-related changes. All sites are on or near the Hayward Fault and are about 55 km apart. Temperature, electric conductivity, and water level or flow rate were measured in situ with portable instruments. Water samples were collected for later chemical and isotopic analyses in the laboratory. The measured flow rate at one of the springs showed a long-term decrease of about 40% since 1987, when a multi-year drought began in California. It also showed several increases that lasted a few days to a few months with amplitudes of 2.4 to 8.6 times the standard deviations above the background rate. Five of these increases were recorded shortly after nearby earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or larger, and may have resulted from unclogging of the flow path and increase of permeability caused by strong seismic shaking. Two other flow increases were possibly induced by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. The water in both wells showed seasonal temperature and chemical variations, largely in response to rainfall. In 1980 the water also showed some clear chemical changes unrelated to rainfall that lasted a few months; these changes were followed by a magnitude 4 earthquake 37 km away. The chemical composition at one of the wells and at the springs also showed some longer-term variations that were not correlated with rainfall but possibly correlated with the five earthquakes mentioned above. These correlations suggest a common tectonic origin for the earthquakes and the anomalies. The last variation at the affected well occurred abruptly in 1989, shortly before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake 54 km away. ?? 1993.

Hayward Fault, California Interferogram

NASA Image and Video Library

2000-08-17

This image of California Hayward fault is an interferogram created using a pair of images taken by ESA ERS-1 and ERS-2 in June 1992 and September 1997 over the central San Francisco Bay in California.

Hayward Fault rocks: porosity, density, and strength measurements

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrow, C.A.; Lockner, D.A.

2001-01-01

Porosity, density and strength measurements were conducted on rock samples collected from the Hayward Fault region in Northern California as part of the Hayward Fault Working Group’s efforts to create a working model of the Hayward Fault. The rocks included in this study were both fine and coarse grained gabbros, altered keratophyre, basalt, sandstone, and serpentinite from various rock formations adjacent to the Hayward Fault. Densities ranged from a low of 2.25 gm/cc (altered keratophyre) to 3.05 gm/cc (fine gabbro), with an average of 2.6 gm/cc, typical of many other rocks. Porosities were generally around 1% or less, with the exception of the sandstone (7.6%) and altered keratophyre (13.5%). Failure and frictional sliding tests were conducted on intact rock cylinders at room temperature under effective pressure conditions of up to 192 MPa, simulating depths of burial to 12 km. Axial shortening of the samples progressed at a rate of 0.1 µm/sec (fine samples) or 0.2 µm/sec (porous samples) for 6 mm of displacement. Velocity stepping tests were then conducted for an additional 2 mm of displacement, for a total of 8 mm. Both peak strength (usually failure strength) and frictional strength, determined at 8 mm of displacement, increased systematically with effective pressure. Coefficients of friction, based on the observed fracture angles, ranged from 0.6 to 0.85, consistent with Byerlee’s Law. Possible secondary influences on the strength of the Hayward rock samples may be surface weathering, or a larger number of pre-existing fractures due to the proximity to the Hayward Fault. All samples showed velocity strengthening, so that the average a-b values were all strongly positive. There was no systematic relation between a-b values and effective pressure. Velocity strengthening behavior is associated with stable sliding (creep), as observed in the shallow portions of the Hayward Fault.

Refining interseismic fault slip and shallow creep on the Hayward and Calaveras Faults, California, using UAVSAR, satellite InSAR and GPS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farge, G.; Delbridge, B. G.; Materna, K.; Johnson, C. W.; Chaussard, E.; Jones, C. E.; Burgmann, R.

2016-12-01

Understanding the role of the Hayward/Calaveras fault junction in major earthquake ruptures in the East San Francisco Bay Area is a major challenge in trying to assess the regional seismic hazard. We use updated GPS velocities, and surface geodetic measurements from both traditional space-based InSAR and the NASA JPL's Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) system to quantify the deep long-term interseismic deformation and shallow temporally variable fault creep. Here, we present a large data set of interseismic deformation over the Hayward/Calaveras fault system, combining far-field deformation from 1992-2011 ERS and Envisat InSAR data, near-field deformation from 2009-2016 UAVSAR data and 1997-2016 regional GPS measurements from the Bay Area Velocity Unification model (BAVU4) in both near-field and far field. We perform a joint inversion of the data to obtain the long-term slip on deep through-going dislocations and the distribution of shallow creep on a 3D model of the Hayward and Calaveras faults. Spatially adaptative weights are given to each data set in order to account for its importance in constraining slip at different depths. The coherence and resolution of the UAVSAR data allow us to accurately resolve the near-field fault deformation, thus providing stronger constraints on the location of active strands of the southern Hayward and Calaveras faults and their shallow interseismic creep distribution.

Long‐term creep rates on the Hayward Fault: evidence for controls on the size and frequency of large earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; McFarland, Forrest S.; Simpson, Robert W.; Bilham, Roger; Ponce, David A.; Boatwright, John; Caskey, S. John

2012-01-01

The Hayward fault (HF) in California exhibits large (Mw 6.5–7.1) earthquakes with short recurrence times (161±65 yr), probably kept short by a 26%–78% aseismic release rate (including postseismic). Its interseismic release rate varies locally over time, as we infer from many decades of surface creep data. Earliest estimates of creep rate, primarily from infrequent surveys of offset cultural features, revealed distinct spatial variation in rates along the fault, but no detectable temporal variation. Since the 1989 Mw 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake (LPE), monitoring on 32 alinement arrays and 5 creepmeters has greatly improved the spatial and temporal resolution of creep rate. We now identify significant temporal variations, mostly associated with local and regional earthquakes. The largest rate change was a 6‐yr cessation of creep along a 5‐km length near the south end of the HF, attributed to a regional stress drop from the LPE, ending in 1996 with a 2‐cm creep event. North of there near Union City starting in 1991, rates apparently increased by 25% above pre‐LPE levels on a 16‐km‐long reach of the fault. Near Oakland in 2007 an Mw 4.2 earthquake initiated a 1–2 cm creep event extending 10–15 km along the fault. Using new better‐constrained long‐term creep rates, we updated earlier estimates of depth to locking along the HF. The locking depths outline a single, ∼50‐km‐long locked or retarded patch with the potential for an Mw∼6.8 event equaling the 1868 HF earthquake. We propose that this inferred patch regulates the size and frequency of large earthquakes on HF.

A Double-difference Earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldhauser, F.; Ellsworth, W.L.

2000-01-01

We have developed an efficient method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations over large distances. The location method incorporates ordinary absolute travel-time measurements and/or cross-correlation P-and S-wave differential travel-time measurements. Residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences (or double-differences) are minimized for pairs of earthquakes at each station while linking together all observed event-station pairs. A least-squares solution is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs. The double-difference algorithm minimizes errors due to unmodeled velocity structure without the use of station corrections. Because catalog and cross-correlation data are combined into one system of equations, interevent distances within multiplets are determined to the accuracy of the cross-correlation data, while the relative locations between multiplets and uncorrelated events are simultaneously determined to the accuracy of the absolute travel-time data. Statistical resampling methods are used to estimate data accuracy and location errors. Uncertainties in double-difference locations are improved by more than an order of magnitude compared to catalog locations. The algorithm is tested, and its performance is demonstrated on two clusters of earthquakes located on the northern Hayward fault, California. There it colapses the diffuse catalog locations into sharp images of seismicity and reveals horizontal lineations of hypocenter that define the narrow regions on the fault where stress is released by brittle failure.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks. The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of

Shipborne Magnetic Survey of San Pablo Bay and Implications on the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault Junction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce, D. A.; Athens, N. D.; Denton, K.

2012-12-01

central part of San Pablo Bay. These magnetic anomalies appear to represent two separate features, one on either side of the Hayward Fault. Likely sources for these anomalies are probably mafic, ultramafic, or volcanic rocks along the fault. Indeed, the more prominent, higher amplitude anomaly, which occurs on the west side of the Hayward Fault, could reflect an offset counterpart to the San Leandro gabbro body in the central part of the onshore portion of the Hayward Fault (Jachens et al., 2002). If so, the apparent offset is about 43 km. Although a magnetic ridge of possible volcanic rock origin (Wright and Smith, 1992) occurs between the Hayward and Rodgers Creek Faults, the Rodgers Creek Fault itself may be expressed by a steep gradient in the shipborne magnetic data. Analysis of these high-resolution shipborne magnetic data afford us the opportunity to image the detailed structure beneath San Pablo Bay and its implications on earthquake hazards.

Gravity and magnetic expression of the San Leandro gabbro with implications for the geometry and evolution of the Hayward Fault zone, northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ponce, D.A.; Hildenbrand, T.G.; Jachens, R.C.

2003-01-01

The Hayward Fault, one of the most hazardous faults in northern California, trends north-northwest and extends for about 90 km along the eastern San Francisco Bay region. At numerous locations along its length, distinct and elongate gravity and magnetic anomalies correlate with mapped mafic and ultramafic rocks. The most prominent of these anomalies reflects the 16-km-long San Leandro gabbroic block. Inversion of magnetic and gravity data constrained with physical property measurements is used to define the subsurface extent of the San Leandro gabbro body and to speculate on its origin and relationship to the Hayward Fault Zone. Modeling indicates that the San Leandro gabbro body is about 3 km wide, dips about 75??-80?? northeast, and extends to a depth of at least 6 km. One of the most striking results of the modeling, which was performed independently of seismicity data, is that accurately relocated seismicity is concentrated along the western edge or stratigraphically lower bounding surface of the San Leandro gabbro. The western boundary of the San Leandro gabbro block is the base of an incomplete ophiolite sequence and represented at one time, a low-angle roof thrust related to the tectonic wedging of the Franciscan Complex. After repeated episodes of extension and attenuation, the roof thrust of this tectonic wedge was rotated to near vertical, and in places, the strike-slip Hayward Fault probably reactivated or preferentially followed this pre-existing feature. Because earthquakes concentrate near the edge of the San Leandro gabbro but tend to avoid its interior, we qualitatively explore mechanical models to explain how this massive igneous block may influence the distribution of stress. The microseismicity cluster along the western flank of the San Leandro gabbro leads us to suggest that this stressed volume may be the site of future moderate to large earthquakes. Improved understanding of the three-dimensional geometry and physical properties along the

Predicted liquefaction in the greater Oakland area and northern Santa Clara Valley during a repeat of the 1868 Hayward Fault (M6.7-7.0) earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

2010-01-01

Probabilities of surface manifestations of liquefaction due to a repeat of the 1868 (M6.7-7.0) earthquake on the southern segment of the Hayward Fault were calculated for two areas along the margin of San Francisco Bay, California: greater Oakland and the northern Santa Clara Valley. Liquefaction is predicted to be more common in the greater Oakland area than in the northern Santa Clara Valley owing to the presence of 57 km2 of susceptible sandy artificial fill. Most of the fills were placed into San Francisco Bay during the first half of the 20th century to build military bases, port facilities, and shoreline communities like Alameda and Bay Farm Island. Probabilities of liquefaction in the area underlain by this sandy artificial fill range from 0.2 to ~0.5 for a M7.0 earthquake, and decrease to 0.1 to ~0.4 for a M6.7 earthquake. In the greater Oakland area, liquefaction probabilities generally are less than 0.05 for Holocene alluvial fan deposits, which underlie most of the remaining flat-lying urban area. In the northern Santa Clara Valley for a M7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault and an assumed water-table depth of 1.5 m (the historically shallowest water level), liquefaction probabilities range from 0.1 to 0.2 along Coyote and Guadalupe Creeks, but are less than 0.05 elsewhere. For a M6.7 earthquake, probabilities are greater than 0.1 along Coyote Creek but decrease along Guadalupe Creek to less than 0.1. Areas with high probabilities in the Santa Clara Valley are underlain by young Holocene levee deposits along major drainages where liquefaction and lateral spreading occurred during large earthquakes in 1868 and 1906.

Distribution of aseismic slip rate on the Hayward fault inferred from seismic and geodetic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, D.A.; Burgmann, R.; Nadeau, R.M.; d'Alessio, M.

2005-01-01

We solve for the slip rate distribution on the Hayward fault by performing a least squares inversion,of geodetic and seismic data sets. Our analysis focuses on the northern 60 km of the fault. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from 13 independent ERS interferograms are stacked to obtain range change rates from 1992 to 2000. Horizontal surface displacement rates at 141 bench marks are measured using GPS from 1994 to 2003. Surface creep observations and estimates of deep slip rates determined from characteristic repeating earthquake sequences are also incorporated in the inversion. The fault is discretized into 283 triangular dislocation elements that approximate the nonplanar attributes of the fault surface. South of the city of Hayward, a steeply, east dipping fault geometry accommodates the divergence of the surface trace and the microseismicity at depth. The inferred slip rate distribution is consistent with a fault that creeps aseismically at a rate of ???5 mm/yr to a depth of 4-6 km. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data require an aseismic slip rate that approaches the geologic slip rate on the northernmost fault segment beneath Point Pinole, although the InSAR data might be complicated by a small dip-slip component at this location. A low slip rate patch of <1 mm/yr is inferred beneath San Leandro consistent with the source location of the 1868 earthquake. We calculate that the entire fault is accumulating a slip rate deficit equivalent to a Mw = 6.77 ?? 0.05 per century. However, this estimate of potential coseismic moment represents an upper bound because we do not know how much of the accumulated strain will be released through aseismic processes such as afterslip. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hayward Fault rate constraints at Berkeley: Evaluation of the 335-meter Strawberry Creek offset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P. L.

2007-12-01

At UC Berkeley the active channel of Strawberry Creek is offset 335 meters by the Hayward fault and two abandoned channels of Strawberry Creek are laterally offset 580 and 730 meters. These relationships record the displacement of the northern Hayward fault at Berkeley over a period of tens of millennia. The Strawberry Creek site has a similar geometry to the central San Andreas fault's Wallace Creek site, which arguably provides the best geological evidence of "millennial" fault kinematics in California (Sieh and Jahns, 1984). Slip rate determinations are an essential component of overall hazard evaluation for the Hayward fault, and this site is ripe to disclose a long-term form of this parameter, to contrast with geodetic and other geological rate evidence. Large offsets at the site may lower uncertainty in the rate equation relative to younger sites, as the affect of stream abandonment age, generally the greatest source of rate uncertainty, is greatly reduced. This is helpful here because it more-than-offsets uncertainties resulting from piercing projections to the fault. Strawberry Creek and its ancestral channels suggest west-side-up vertical deformation across the Hayward fault at this location. The development of the vertical deformation parameter will complement ongoing geodetic measurements, particularly InSAR, and motivate testing of other geological constraints. Up-to-the-west motion across the Hayward fault at Berkeley has important implications for the partitioning of strain and kinematics of the northern Hayward fault, and may explain anomalous up-on-the-west landforms elsewhere along the fault. For example, geological features of the western Berkeley Hills are consistent with rapid and recent uplift to the west of the fault. On the basis of a preliminary analysis of the offset channels of Strawberry Creek, up-to-the-west uplift is about 0.5mm/yr across the Hayward fault at Berkeley. If this is in fact the long-term rate, the 150 m height of the Hills

Logs and data from trenches across the Hayward Fault at Tyson's Lagoon (Tule Pond), Fremont, Alameda County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linenkaemper, James J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Personius, Stephen F.; Seitz, Gordon G.; Reidy, Liam M.; Schwartz, David P.

2002-01-01

INTRODUCTION The purpose of this publication is to make available detailed trench logs (sheets 1, 2), radiocarbon dates (table 1) and pollen data (fig. 1) obtained as a result of an intensive subsurface investigation of the Hayward Fault at Tyson's Lagoon (Tule Pond) from August to November 2000 (figs. 1, 2 on sheet 1). The Hayward Fault is recognized to be among the most hazardous in the United States (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 1999). This document makes available geologic evidence for historical and prehistoric surfacerupturing earthquakes that were recorded at the site. Prehistoric earthquakes deduced from geologic evidence are called paleoearthquakes. Establishing a chronology of paleoearthquakes is of immediate use in resolving the level of hazard posed by the Hayward Fault for producing large earthquakes in the future. Preliminary findings of this investigation have been presented in Lienkaemper and others (2001). A formal report on our conclusions based on these data is in preparation. The investigation at Tyson's Lagoon is ongoing, so these products should not be considered final. Lienkaemper, Dawson, and Personius interpreted the geology and logged the trenches. Seitz and Reidy performed analyses on radiocarbon and pollen samples, respectively. Schwartz led the critical-review field team. Previous trenching work was done at Tyson's Lagoon (figs. 2, 3 on sheet 1). Lienkaemper (1992) references the location of most of those trenches. The earlier trenching was generally for the evaluation of local faultrupture hazard, except for the study of Williams (1993), which was a paleoearthquake investigation. An unpublished study by J.N. Alt in 1998 (shown on our site map as trenches 98A and 98B, fig. 3, on sheet 1), also sought evidence of paleoearthquakes. Alt's study and one by Woodward-Clyde and Associates (1970; trenches 70A to 70G, fig. 3) were located south of Walnut Avenue in one of the few areas that still remain undisturbed and

Comparisons of Low-Strain Amplification at Soft-Sediment, Hard-Rock, Topographic, and Fault-Zone Sites in the Hayward Fault Zone, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catchings, R.; Strayer, L. M.; Goldman, M.

2014-12-01

We used a temporary network of approximately 600 seismographs to record a seismic source generated by the collapse of a 13-story building near the active trace of the Hayward Fault. These data allow us to evaluate variations in ground shaking across a series of 30 2-km-long radial arrays centered on the seismic source. Individual seismographs were spaced at 200-m intervals, forming a series of 360°concentric arrays around the seismic source. The data show variations in amplification caused by (1) soft sediments within the East Bay alluvial plain (EBAP), (2) hard rocks within the East Bay hills (EBH), (3) low-velocity rocks within the Hayward Fault zone (HFZ), and (4) topography. Given that ground shaking varies strongly with distance from the source, the concentric arrays allowed us to measure variations in ground shaking as a function of azimuth at fixed distances from the source. On individual linear profiles within the concentric arrays, we observed decreases in peak ground velocity (PGV) across the HFZ and other faults within the EBH. However, for a given distance from the source, we observe four to five fold amplification from the EBAP sites compared to most sites in the EBH. Topographic and fault-zone amplification effects within the EBH, however, are greater than the EBAP sediment amplification. Thus, for future earthquakes, shaking at many sites within the EBH may be significantly stronger than many sites within the EBAP. These observations suggest amplification can be expected in unconsolidated sediments, but topographic and fault-zone amplification can be larger. This confirms the importance of site effects for hazard mitigation and in interpreting MMI for future and historical earthquakes.

Subsurface structure of the East Bay Plain ground-water basin: San Francisco Bay to the Hayward fault, Alameda County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catchings, R.D.; Borchers, J.W.; Goldman, M.R.; Gandhok, G.; Ponce, D.A.; Steedman, C.E.

2006-01-01

The area of California between the San Francisco Bay, San Pablo Bay, Santa Clara Valley, and the Diablo Ranges (East Bay Hills), commonly referred to as the 'East Bay', contains the East Bay Plain and Niles Cone ground-water basins. The area has a population of 1.46 million (2003 US Census), largely distributed among several cities, including Alameda, Berkeley, Fremont, Hayward, Newark, Oakland, San Leandro, San Lorenzo, and Union City. Major known tectonic structures in the East Bay area include the Hayward Fault and the Diablo Range to the east and a relatively deep sedimentary basin known as the San Leandro Basin beneath the eastern part of the bay. Known active faults, such as the Hayward, Calaveras, and San Andreas pose significant earthquake hazards to the region, and these and related faults also affect ground-water flow in the San Francisco Bay area. Because most of the valley comprising the San Francisco Bay area is covered by Holocene alluvium or water at the surface, our knowledge of the existence and locations of such faults, their potential hazards, and their effects on ground-water flow within the alluvial basins is incomplete. To better understand the subsurface stratigraphy and structures and their effects on ground-water and earthquake hazards, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD), acquired a series of high-resolution seismic reflection and refraction profiles across the East Bay Plain near San Leandro in June 2002. In this report, we present results of the seismic imaging investigations, with emphasis on ground water.

Shallow-depth location and geometry of the Piedmont Reverse splay of the Hayward Fault, Oakland, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Catchings, Rufus D.; Goldman, Mark R.; Trench, David; Buga, Michael; Chan, Joanne H.; Criley, Coyn J.; Strayer, Luther M.

2017-04-18

The Piedmont Thrust Fault, herein referred to as the Piedmont Reverse Fault (PRF), is a splay of the Hayward Fault that trends through a highly populated area of the City of Oakland, California (fig. 1A). Although the PRF is unlikely to generate a large-magnitude earthquake, slip on the PRF or high-amplitude seismic energy traveling along the PRF may cause considerable damage during a large earthquake on the Hayward Fault. Thus, it is important to determine the exact location, geometry (particularly dip), and lateral extent of the PRF within the densely populated Oakland area. In the near surface, the PRF juxtaposes Late Cretaceous sandstone (of the Franciscan Complex Novato Quarry terrane of Blake and others, 1984) and an older Pleistocene alluvial fan unit along much of its mapped length (fig. 1B; Graymer and others, 1995). The strata of the Novato Quarry unit vary greatly in strike (NW, NE, and E), dip direction (NE, SW, E, and NW), dip angle (15° to 85°), and lithology (shale and sandstone), and the unit has been intruded by quartz diorite in places. Thus, it is difficult to infer the structure of the fault, particularly at depth, with conventional seismic reflection imaging methods. To better determine the location and shallow-depth geometry of the PRF, we used high-resolution seismic imaging methods described by Catchings and others (2014). These methods involve the use of coincident P-wave (compressional wave) and S-wave (shear wave) refraction tomography and reflection data, from which tomographic models of P- and S-wave velocity and P-wave reflection images are developed. In addition, the coincident P-wave velocity (VP) and S-wave velocity (VS) data are used to develop tomographic models of VP/VS ratios and Poisson’s ratio, which are sensitive to shallow-depth faulting and groundwater. In this study, we also compare measurements of Swave velocities determined from surface waves with those determined from refraction tomography. We use the combination of

Shallow Vs Structure Accross Hayward Fault Zone Inferred from Multichannel Analysis of Surface Waves (MASW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, J. H.; Richardson, I. S.; Strayer, L. M.; Catchings, R.; McEvilly, A.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Sickler, R. R.

2017-12-01

The Hayward Fault Zone (HFZ) includes the Hayward fault (HF), as well as several named and unnamed subparallel, subsidiary faults to the east, among them the Quaternary-active Chabot Fault (CF), the Miller Creek Fault (MCF), and a heretofore unnamed fault, the Redwood Thrust Fault (RTF). With an ≥M6.0 recurrence interval of 130 y for the HF and the last major earthquake in 1868, the HFZ is a major seismic hazard in the San Francisco Bay Area, exacerbated by the many unknown and potentially active secondary faults of the HFZ. In 2016, researchers from California State University, East Bay, working in concert with the United States Geological Survey conducted the East Bay Seismic Investigation (EBSI). We deployed 296 RefTek RT125 (Texan) seismographs along a 15-km-long linear seismic profile across the HF, extending from the bay in San Leandro to the hills in Castro Valley. Two-channel seismographs were deployed at 100 m intervals to record P- and S-waves, and additional single-channel seismographs were deployed at 20 m intervals where the seismic line crossed mapped faults. The active-source survey consisted of 16 buried explosive shots located at approximately 1-km intervals along the seismic line. We used the Multichannel Analysis of Surfaces Waves (MASW) method to develop 2-D shear-wave velocity models across the CF, MCF, and RTF. Preliminary MASW analysis show areas of anomalously low S-wave velocities , indicating zones of reduced shear modulus, coincident with these three mapped faults; additional velocity anomalies coincide with unmapped faults within the HFZ. Such compliant zones likely correspond to heavily fractured rock surrounding the faults, where the shear modulus is expected to be low compared to the undeformed host rock.

Examining Communities at Risk: Physical and Socioeconomic Impacts of an Earthquake Scenario on the Hayward Fault (The HayWired Scenario)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinitz, L.; Wein, A. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Jones, J. L.

2015-12-01

This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, "ghost towns" emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario. The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region

The Oakland Conglomerate: a Hayward Fault Teconite?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strayer, L. M.; Allen, J. R.

2008-12-01

The Late Cretaceous Oakland Conglomerate (OC), a coarse-grained cobble and sandstone unit of the Great Valley Sequence is a tectonite. Faulted and shattered cobbles and well developed grain-on-grain contact features between clasts are ubiquitous and penetrative throughout conglomeratic lenses. The OC outcrops east of the Hayward fault (HF) and adjacent to the Chabot fault in the East Bay Hills. It overlies the Knoxville Formation and may have been buried beneath 4-6 km of younger units. The OC is a proximal submarine fan deposit with sediment sourced to the ancestral Klamath and Sierra Nevada. Clast types are dominated by volcanics, granitoids, as well as numerous quartzites, perhaps reflecting complex provenance:Klamath and pre-Sierran arc and pre-Cretaceous Basin and Range. And although there was a significant interval between the Late-K deposition of the OC and the inception of San Andreas faulting in the Bay Area, its 1-2 km proximity to the HF in the Oakland Metropolitan area strongly suggests that much of the brittle-plastic deformation within the OC may be due to earthquakes upon the nearby Hayward fault. Clasts with the OC are frequently shattered, fractured or faulted. Most have grain-on-grain contact features on their surfaces regardless of whether they are matrix or grain supported. Faulting in the cobbles ranges from outcrop scale, penetrative and often conjugate shear fracture sets that run through both cobbles and matrix (if present), to closely spaced en-echelon faults that clearly deform cobbles, and radially shattered specimens with nearly conical conjugate shear fractures that are clearly the result of point loading due to grain-on-grain contact. There are at least 3 types of contact structures, ranging from: 1) Type-H, bright circular halos with little or no surface dimpling, likely the result of intense microfracture at the contact; 2) Type-S, shattered, rounded 'firing-pin' structures that have pulverized, depressed contact that is the locus of

Three-dimensional geologic map of the Hayward fault, northern California: Correlation of rock unites with variations in seismicity, creep rate, and fault dip

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graymer, R.W.; Ponce, D.A.; Jachens, R.C.; Simpson, R.W.; Phelps, G.A.; Wentworth, C.M.

2005-01-01

In order to better understand mechanisms of active faults, we studied relationships between fault behavior and rock units along the Hayward fault using a three-dimensional geologic map. The three-dimensional map-constructed from hypocenters, potential field data, and surface map data-provided a geologic map of each fault surface, showing rock units on either side of the fault truncated by the fault. The two fault-surface maps were superimposed to create a rock-rock juxtaposition map. The three maps were compared with seismicity, including aseismic patches, surface creep, and fault dip along the fault, by using visuallization software to explore three-dimensional relationships. Fault behavior appears to be correlated to the fault-surface maps, but not to the rock-rock juxtaposition map, suggesting that properties of individual wall-rock units, including rock strength, play an important role in fault behavior. Although preliminary, these results suggest that any attempt to understand the detailed distribution of earthquakes or creep along a fault should include consideration of the rock types that abut the fault surface, including the incorporation of observations of physical properties of the rock bodies that intersect the fault at depth. ?? 2005 Geological Society of America.

Tectonic creep in the Hayward fault zone, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Radbruch-Hall, Dorothy H.; Bonilla, M.G.

1966-01-01

Tectonic creep is slight apparently continuous movement along a fault. Evidence of creep has been noted at several places within the Hayward fault zone--a zone trending northwestward near the western front of the hills bordering the east side of San Francisco Bay. D. H. Radbruch of the Geological Survey and B. J. Lennert, consulting engineer, confirmed a reported cracking of a culvert under the University of California stadium. F. B. Blanchard and C. L. Laverty of the East Bay Municipal Utility District of Oakland studied cracks in the Claremont water tunnel in Berkeley. M. G. Bonilla of the Geological Survey noted deformation of railroad tracks in the Niles district of Fremont. Six sets of tracks have been bent and shifted. L. S. Cluff of Woodward-Clyde-Sherard and Associates and K. V. Steinbrugge of the Pacific Fire Rating Bureau noted that the concrete walls of a warehouse in the Irvington district of Fremont have been bent and broken, and the columns forced out of line. All the deformations noted have been right lateral and range from about 2 inches in the Claremont tunnel to about 8 inches on the railroad tracks. Tectonic creep almost certainly will continue to damage buildings, tunnels, and other structures that cross the narrow bands of active movement within the Hayward fault zone.

Earthquake geology and paleoseismology of major strands of the San Andreas fault system: Chapter 38

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rockwell, Thomas; Scharer, Katherine M.; Dawson, Timothy E.

2016-01-01

The San Andreas fault system in California is one of the best-studied faults in the world, both in terms of the long-term geologic history and paleoseismic study of past surface ruptures. In this paper, we focus on the Quaternary to historic data that have been collected from the major strands of the San Andreas fault system, both on the San Andreas Fault itself, and the major subparallel strands that comprise the plate boundary, including the Calaveras-Hayward- Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone and the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone in northern California, and the San Jacinto and Elsinore faults in southern California. The majority of the relative motion between the Pacific and North American lithospheric plates is accommodated by these faults, with the San Andreas slipping at about 34 mm/yr in central California, decreasing to about 20 mm/yr in northern California north of its juncture with the Calaveras and Concord faults. The Calaveras-Hayward-Rogers Creek-Maacama fault zone exhibits a slip rate of 10-15 mm/yr, whereas the rate along the Concord-Green Valley-Bartlett Springs fault zone is lower at about 5 mm/yr. In southern California, the San Andreas exhibits a slip rate of about 35 mm/yr along the Mojave section, decreasing to as low as 10-15 mm/yr along its juncture with the San Jacinto fault, and about 20 mm/yr in the Coachella Valley. The San Jacinto and Elsinore fault zones exhibit rates of about 15 and 5 mm/yr, respectively. The average recurrence interval for surface-rupturing earthquakes along individual elements of the San Andreas fault system range from 100-500 years and is consistent with slip rate at those sites: higher slip rates produce more frequent or larger earthquakes. There is also evidence of short-term variations in strain release (slip rate) along various fault sections, as expressed as “flurries” or clusters of earthquakes as well as periods of relatively fewer surface ruptures in these relatively short records. This

Dipping San Andreas and Hayward faults revealed beneath San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Hart, P.E.

1999-01-01

The San Francisco Bay area is crossed by several right-lateral strike-slip faults of the San Andreas fault zone. Fault-plane reflections reveal that two of these faults, the San Andreas and Hayward, dip toward each other below seismogenic depths at 60?? and 70??, respectively, and persist to the base of the crust. Previously, a horizontal detachment linking the two faults in the lower crust beneath San Francisco Bay was proposed. The only near-vertical-incidence reflection data available prior to the most recent experiment in 1997 were recorded parallel to the major fault structures. When the new reflection data recorded orthogonal to the faults are compared with the older data, the highest, amplitude reflections show clear variations in moveout with recording azimuth. In addition, reflection times consistently increase with distance from the faults. If the reflectors were horizontal, reflection moveout would be independent of azimuth, and reflection times would be independent of distance from the faults. The best-fit solution from three-dimensional traveltime modeling is a pair of high-angle dipping surfaces. The close correspondence of these dipping structures with the San Andreas and Hayward faults leads us to conclude that they are the faults beneath seismogenic depths. If the faults retain their observed dips, they would converge into a single zone in the upper mantle -45 km beneath the surface, although we can only observe them in the crust.

Seismic reflection evidence for a northeast-dipping Hayward fault near Fremont, California: Implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, R.A.; Simpson, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.; Stephenson, W.J.; Odum, J.K.; Ponce, D.A.

2005-01-01

A 1.6-km-long seismic reflection profile across the creeping trace of the southern Hayward fault near Fremont, California, images the fault to a depth of 650 m. Reflector truncations define a fault dip of about 70 degrees east in the 100 to 650 m depth range that projects upward to the creeping surface trace, and is inconsistent with a nearly vertical fault in this vicinity as previously believed. This fault projects to the Mission seismicity trend located at 4-10 km depth about 2 km east of the surface trace and suggests that the southern end of the fault is as seismically active as the part north of San Leandro. The seismic hazard implication is that the Hayward fault may have a more direct connection at depth with the Calaveras fault, affecting estimates of potential event magnitudes that could occur on the combined fault surfaces, thus affecting hazard assessments for the south San Francisco Bay region.

The most recent large earthquake on the Rodgers Creek fault, San Francisco bay area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hecker, S.; Pantosti, D.; Schwartz, D.P.; Hamilton, J.C.; Reidy, L.M.; Powers, T.J.

2005-01-01

The Rodgers Creek fault (RCF) is a principal component of the San Andreas fault system north of San Francisco. No evidence appears in the historical record of a large earthquake on the RCF, implying that the most recent earthquake (MRE) occurred before 1824, when a Franciscan mission was built near the fault at Sonoma, and probably before 1776, when a mission and presidio were built in San Francisco. The first appearance of nonnative pollen in the stratigraphic record at the Triangle G Ranch study site on the south-central reach of the RCF confirms that the MRE occurred before local settlement and the beginning of livestock grazing. Chronological modeling of earthquake age using radiocarbon-dated charcoal from near the top of a faulted alluvial sequence at the site indicates that the MRE occurred no earlier than A.D. 1690 and most likely occurred after A.D. 1715. With these age constraints, we know that the elapsed time since the MRE on the RCF is more than 181 years and less than 315 years and is probably between 229 and 290 years. This elapsed time is similar to published recurrence-interval estimates of 131 to 370 years (preferred value of 230 years) and 136 to 345 years (mean of 205 years), calculated from geologic data and a regional earthquake model, respectively. Importantly, then, the elapsed time may have reached or exceeded the average recurrence time for the fault. The age of the MRE on the RCF is similar to the age of prehistoric surface rupture on the northern and southern sections of the Hayward fault to the south. This suggests possible rupture scenarios that involve simultaneous rupture of the Rodgers Creek and Hayward faults. A buried channel is offset 2.2 (+ 1.2, - 0.8) m along one side of a pressure ridge at the Triangle G Ranch site. This provides a minimum estimate of right-lateral slip during the MRE at this location. Total slip at the site may be similar to, but is probably greater than, the 2 (+ 0.3, - 0.2) m measured previously at the

Development of Final A-Fault Rupture Models for WGCEP/ NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; Weldon, Ray J.; Parsons, Thomas; Wills, Chris J.; Dawson, Timothy E.; Stein, Ross S.; Petersen, Mark D.

2008-01-01

This appendix discusses how we compute the magnitude and rate of earthquake ruptures for the seven Type-A faults (Elsinore, Garlock, San Jacinto, S. San Andreas, N. San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, and Calaveras) in the WGCEP/NSHMP Earthquake Rate Model 2 (referred to as ERM 2. hereafter). By definition, Type-A faults are those that have relatively abundant paleoseismic information (e.g., mean recurrence-interval estimates). The first section below discusses segmentation-based models, where ruptures are assumed be confined to one or more identifiable segments. The second section discusses an un-segmented-model option, the third section discusses results and implications, and we end with a discussion of possible future improvements. General background information can be found in the main report.

2014 M=6.0 South Napa earthquake triggered widespread aftershocks and stressed several major faults and exotic fault clusters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross

2015-01-01

The strongest San Francisco Bay area earthquake since the 1989 Mw 7.0 Loma Prieta shock struck near Napa on 24 August 2014. Field mapping (Dawson et al., 2014; Earthquake Engineering Research Institute [EERI], 2014; Brocher et al., 2015) and seismic and geodetic source inversions (Barnhart et al., 2015; Dreger et al., 2015; Wei et al., 2015) indicate that a 15-km-long northwest-trending section of the West Napa Valley fault ruptured in the earthquake. Remarkably, it was the first indisputable surface rupture in the Bay area since 1906. The Napa event, along with other smaller earthquakes such as the 1980 Mw 5.8 Livermore and 1984 Mw 6.2 Morgan Hill events on the Calaveras and Hayward faults over the past 3–4 decades, may indicate that the Bay area region is emerging from the stress shadow of the 1906 Mw 7.8 San Francisco earthquake (Harris and Simpson, 1998; Pollitz et al., 2004). Since 1979, there has been a 140% increase in the rate of Mw≥4.1 shocks (Fig. 1) in the broader Bay area, with most concentrated in a corridor extending north from the 1989 Loma Prieta aftershock zone through the Calaveras, Greenville, Green Valley, Napa, and Rodgers Creek faults east of the San Francisco Bay (Fig. 1a). This corridor roughly coincides with the 1906 stress shadow that is being eroded away by more than a century of stress reaccumulation. The Napa event, as well as the surrounding faults on which we calculate the resulting hazard increases, all lie within this zone.

Dependence of frictional strength on compositional variations of Hayward fault rock gouges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrow, Carolyn A.; Moore, Diane E.; Lockner, David A.

2010-01-01

The northern termination of the locked portion of the Hayward Fault near Berkeley, California, is found to coincide with the transition from strong Franciscan metagraywacke to melange on the western side of the fault. Both of these units are juxtaposed with various serpentinite, gabbro and graywacke units to the east, suggesting that the gouges formed within the Hayward Fault zone may vary widely due to the mixing of adjacent rock units and that the mechanical behavior of the fault would be best modeled by determining the frictional properties of mixtures of the principal rock types. To this end, room temperature, water-saturated, triaxial shearing tests were conducted on binary and ternary mixtures of fine-grained gouges prepared from serpentinite and gabbro from the Coast Range Ophiolite, a Great Valley Sequence graywacke, and three different Franciscan Complex metasedimentary rocks. Friction coefficients ranged from 0.36 for the serpentinite to 0.84 for the gabbro, with four of the rock types having coefficients of friction ranging from 0.67-0.84. The friction coefficients of the mixtures can be predicted reliably by a simple weighted average of the end-member dry-weight percentages and strengths for all samples except those containing serpentinite. For the serpentinite mixtures, a linear trend between end-member values slightly overestimates the coefficients of friction in the midcomposition ranges. The range in strength for these rock admixtures suggests that both theoretical and numerical modeling of the fault should attempt to account for variations in rock and gouge properties.

Using InSAR time series to identify geologic hazards associated with the Hayward and Calaveras faults along the South Bay Aqueduct

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, C. E.; Burgmann, R.; Hoirup, D. F., Jr.; Hawkins, B.

2016-12-01

We evaluated Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) data using InSAR time series analysis and documented ground movement along the Calaveras and Hayward faults near the South Bay Aqueduct (SBA). Images from seven different UAVSAR flight lines at 7m x 7m resolution were used for the study. A total of 132 acquisitions (between 12 and 51 per line) were acquired between 2009 and 2015. Each of the seven lines observed only part of the aqueduct, but all segments of the aqueduct were imaged in more than one line with some segments in up to four lines. This provided between one and three imaging geometries for every fault location along the aqueduct. The SBA transports water from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) to communities east and south of San Francisco Bay through a combination of open canals, tunnels, and pipelines. From its starting point immediately west of the Delta at Bethany Reservoir, the SBA extends westward, crossing multiple faults, including Calaveras and Hayward faults. The aqueduct continues south, largely following the Hayward fault to its terminus east of San Jose. The SBA and associated infrastructure are at risk from landslides and from movement along any of these faults, with the landslides often spatially associated with the faults. We report linear rates of surface movement averaged across the six-year time period, and identify locations experiencing significant movement along the Calaveras and Hayward faults. Aseismic displacement is quantified and mapped for the two faults, including multiple traces of the Calaveras fault extending north and south of where it crosses the SBA. This work was carried out in part at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contracts with the California Dept. of Water Resources and with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Digital Database of Recently Active Traces of the Hayward Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this map is to show the location of and evidence for recent movement on active fault traces within the Hayward Fault Zone, California. The mapped traces represent the integration of the following three different types of data: (1) geomorphic expression, (2) creep (aseismic fault slip),and (3) trench exposures. This publication is a major revision of an earlier map (Lienkaemper, 1992), which both brings up to date the evidence for faulting and makes it available formatted both as a digital database for use within a geographic information system (GIS) and for broader public access interactively using widely available viewing software. The pamphlet describes in detail the types of scientific observations used to make the map, gives references pertaining to the fault and the evidence of faulting, and provides guidance for use of and limitations of the map. [Last revised Nov. 2008, a minor update for 2007 LiDAR and recent trench investigations; see version history below.

Three-Dimensional Geologic Map of the Hayward Fault Zone, San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phelps, G.A.; Graymer, R.W.; Jachens, R.C.; Ponce, D.A.; Simpson, R.W.; Wentworth, C.M.

2008-01-01

A three-dimensional (3D) geologic map of the Hayward Fault zone was created by integrating the results from geologic mapping, potential field geophysics, and seismology investigations. The map volume is 100 km long, 20 km wide, and extends to a depth of 12 km below sea level. The map volume is oriented northwest and is approximately bisected by the Hayward Fault. The complex geologic structure of the region makes it difficult to trace many geologic units into the subsurface. Therefore, the map units are generalized from 1:24,000-scale geologic maps. Descriptions of geologic units and structures are offered, along with a discussion of the methods used to map them and incorporate them into the 3D geologic map. The map spatial database and associated viewing software are provided. Elements of the map, such as individual fault surfaces, are also provided in a non-proprietary format so that the user can access the map via open-source software. The sheet accompanying this manuscript shows views taken from the 3D geologic map for the user to access. The 3D geologic map is designed as a multi-purpose resource for further geologic investigations and process modeling.

The Loma Prieta, California, Earthquake of October 17, 1989: Earthquake Occurrence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coordinated by Bakun, William H.; Prescott, William H.

1993-01-01

Professional Paper 1550 seeks to understand the M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake itself. It examines how the fault that generated the earthquake ruptured, searches for and evaluates precursors that may have indicated an earthquake was coming, reviews forecasts of the earthquake, and describes the geology of the earthquake area and the crustal forces that affect this geology. Some significant findings were: * Slip during the earthquake occurred on 35 km of fault at depths ranging from 7 to 20 km. Maximum slip was approximately 2.3 m. The earthquake may not have released all of the strain stored in rocks next to the fault and indicates a potential for another damaging earthquake in the Santa Cruz Mountains in the near future may still exist. * The earthquake involved a large amount of uplift on a dipping fault plane. Pre-earthquake conventional wisdom was that large earthquakes in the Bay area occurred as horizontal displacements on predominantly vertical faults. * The fault segment that ruptured approximately coincided with a fault segment identified in 1988 as having a 30% probability of generating a M7 earthquake in the next 30 years. This was one of more than 20 relevant earthquake forecasts made in the 83 years before the earthquake. * Calculations show that the Loma Prieta earthquake changed stresses on nearby faults in the Bay area. In particular, the earthquake reduced stresses on the Hayward Fault which decreased the frequency of small earthquakes on it. * Geological and geophysical mapping indicate that, although the San Andreas Fault can be mapped as a through going fault in the epicentral region, the southwest dipping Loma Prieta rupture surface is a separate fault strand and one of several along this part of the San Andreas that may be capable of generating earthquakes.

Large earthquakes and creeping faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Ruth A.

2017-01-01

Faults are ubiquitous throughout the Earth's crust. The majority are silent for decades to centuries, until they suddenly rupture and produce earthquakes. With a focus on shallow continental active-tectonic regions, this paper reviews a subset of faults that have a different behavior. These unusual faults slowly creep for long periods of time and produce many small earthquakes. The presence of fault creep and the related microseismicity helps illuminate faults that might not otherwise be located in fine detail, but there is also the question of how creeping faults contribute to seismic hazard. It appears that well-recorded creeping fault earthquakes of up to magnitude 6.6 that have occurred in shallow continental regions produce similar fault-surface rupture areas and similar peak ground shaking as their locked fault counterparts of the same earthquake magnitude. The behavior of much larger earthquakes on shallow creeping continental faults is less well known, because there is a dearth of comprehensive observations. Computational simulations provide an opportunity to fill the gaps in our understanding, particularly of the dynamic processes that occur during large earthquake rupture and arrest.

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

PubMed

Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

2015-04-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

PubMed Central

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

2015-01-01

Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

The Evergreen basin and the role of the Silver Creek fault in the San Andreas fault system, San Francisco Bay region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jachens, Robert C.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Graymer, Russell W.; Williams, Robert; Ponce, David A.; Mankinen, Edward A.; Stephenson, William J.; Langenheim, Victoria

2017-01-01

fault to the Hayward fault across the Mission seismic trend northeast of the Evergreen basin, whereas slip above a depth of 5 km is transferred through a complex zone of oblique-reverse faults along and over the northeast basin margin. However, a prominent groundwater flow barrier and related land-subsidence discontinuity coincident with the concealed Silver Creek fault, a discontinuity in the pattern of seismicity on the Calaveras fault at the Silver Creek fault intersection, and a structural sag indicative of a negative flower structure in Quaternary sediments along the southwest basin margin indicate that the Silver Creek fault has had minor ongoing slip over the past few hundred thousand years. Two earthquakes with ∼M6 occurred in A.D. 1903 in the vicinity of the Silver Creek fault, but the available information is not sufficient to reliably identify them as Silver Creek fault events.

Seismic Velocity Structure across the Hayward Fault Zone Near San Leandro, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strayer, L. M.; Catchings, R.; Chan, J. H.; Richardson, I. S.; McEvilly, A.; Goldman, M.; Criley, C.; Sickler, R. R.

2017-12-01

In Fall 2016 we conducted the East Bay Seismic Investigation, a NEHRP-funded collaboration between California State University, East Bay and the United State Geological Survey. The study produced a large volume of seismic data, allowing us to examine the subsurface across the East Bay plain and hills using a variety of geophysical methods. We know of no other survey performed in the past that has imaged this area, at this scale, and with this degree of resolution. Initial models show that seismic velocities of the Hayward Fault Zone (HFZ), the East Bay plain, and the East Bay hills are illuminated to depths of 5-6 km. We used explosive sources at 1-km intervals along a 15-km-long, NE-striking ( 055°), seismic line centered on the HFZ. Vertical- and horizontal-component sensors were spaced at 100 m intervals along the entire profile, with vertical-component sensors at 20 m intervals across mapped or suspected faults. Preliminary seismic refraction tomography across the HFZ, sensu lato, (includes sub-parallel, connected, and related faults), shows that the San Leandro Block (SLB) is a low-velocity feature in the upper 1-3 km, with nearly the same Vp as the adjacent Great Valley sediments to the east, and low Vs values. In our initial analysis we can trace the SLB and its bounding faults (Hayward, Chabot) nearly vertically, to at least 2-4 km depth. Similarly, preliminary migrated reflection images suggest that many if not all of the peripheral reverse, strike-slip and oblique-slip faults of the wider HFZ dip toward the SLB, into a curtain of relocated epicenters that define the HFZ at depth, indicative of a `flower-structure'. Preliminary Vs tomography identifies another apparently weak zone at depth, located about 1.5 km east of the San Leandro shoreline, that may represent the northward continuation of the Silver Creek Fault. Centered 4 km from the Bay, there is a distinctive, 2 km-wide, uplifted, horst-like, high-velocity structure (both Vp & Vs) that bounds the

The Quaternary Silver Creek Fault Beneath the Santa Clara Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wentworth, Carl M.; Williams, Robert A.; Jachens, Robert C.; Graymer, Russell W.; Stephenson, William J.

2010-01-01

The northwest-trending Silver Creek Fault is a 40-km-long strike-slip fault in the eastern Santa Clara Valley, California, that has exhibited different behaviors within a changing San Andreas Fault system over the past 10-15 Ma. Quaternary alluvium several hundred meters thick that buries the northern half of the Silver Creek Fault, and that has been sampled by drilling and imaged in a detailed seismic reflection profile, provides a record of the Quaternary history of the fault. We assemble evidence from areal geology, stratigraphy, paleomagnetics, ground-water hydrology, potential-field geophysics, and reflection and earthquake seismology to determine the long history of the fault in order to evaluate its current behavior. The fault formed in the Miocene more than 100 km to the southeast, as the southwestern fault in a 5-km-wide right step to the Hayward Fault, within which the 40-km-long Evergreen pull-apart basin formed. Later, this basin was obliquely cut by the newly recognized Mt. Misery Fault to form a more direct connection to the Hayward Fault, although continued growth of the basin was sufficient to accommodate at least some late Pliocene alluvium. Large offset along the San Andreas-Calaveras-Mt Misery-Hayward Faults carried the basin northwestward almost to its present position when, about 2 Ma, the fault system was reorganized. This led to near abandonment of the faults bounding the pull-apart basin in favor of right slip extending the Calaveras Fault farther north before stepping west to the Hayward Fault, as it does today. Despite these changes, the Silver Creek Fault experienced a further 200 m of dip slip in the early Quaternary, from which we infer an associated 1.6 km or so of right slip, based on the ratio of the 40-km length of the strike-slip fault to a 5-km depth of the Evergreen Basin. This dip slip ends at a mid-Quaternary unconformity, above which the upper 300 m of alluvial cover exhibits a structural sag at the fault that we interpret as

The Bay Area Earthquake Cycle:A Paleoseismic Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, D. P.; Seitz, G.; Lienkaemper, J. J.; Dawson, T. E.; Hecker, S.; William, L.; Kelson, K.

2001-12-01

Stress changes produced by the 1906 San Francisco earthquake had a profound effect on Bay Area seismicity, dramatically reducing it in the 20th century. Whether the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR) is still within, is just emerging from it, or is out of the 1906 stress shadow is an issue of strong debate with important implications for earthquake mechanics and seismic hazards. Historically the SFBR has not experienced one complete earthquake cycle--the interval immediately following, then leading up to and repeating, a 1906-type (multi-segment rupture, M7.9) San Andreas event. The historical record of earthquake occurrence in the SFBR appears to be complete at about M5.5 back to 1850 (Bakun, 1999), which is less than half a cycle. For large events (qualitatively placed at M*7) Toppozada and Borchardt (1998) suggest the record is complete back to 1776, which may represent about half a cycle. During this period only the southern Hayward fault (1868) and the San Andreas fault (1838?, 1906) have produced their expected large events. New paleoseismic data now provide, for the first time, a more complete view of the most recent pre-1906 SFBR earthquake cycle. Focused paleoseismic efforts under the Bay Area Paleoearthquake Experiment (BAPEX) have developed a chronology of the most recent large earthquakes (MRE) on major SFBR faults. The San Andreas (SA), northern Hayward (NH), southern Hayward (SH), Rodgers Creek (RC), and northern Calaveras (NC) faults provide clear paleoseismic evidence for large events post-1600 AD. The San Gregorio (SG) may have also produced a large earthquake after this date. The timing of the MREs, in years AD, follows. The age ranges are 2-sigma radiocarbon intervals; the dates in parentheses are 1-sigma. MRE ages are: a) SA 1600-1670 (1630-1660), NH 1640-1776 (1635-1776); SH 1635-1776 (1685-1676); RC 1670-1776 (1730-1776); NC 1670-1830?; and San Gregorio 1270-1776 but possibly 1640-1776 (1685-1776). Based on present radiocarbon dating, the NH

Relationships between sliding behavior and internal geometry of laboratory fault zones and some creeping and locked strike-slip faults of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Diane E.; Byerlee, J.

1992-01-01

Moore, D.E. and Byerlee, J., 1992. Relationships between sliding behavior and internal geometry of laboratory fault zones and some creeping and locked strike-slip faults of California. In: T. Mikumo, K. Aki, M. Ohnaka, L.J. Ruff and P.K.P. Spudich (Editors), Earthquake Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211: 305-316. In order to relate fault geometries to sliding behavior, maps of recently active breaks within the Hayward fault of central California, which is characterized by fault creep, have been examined and compared to maps of the San Andreas fault. The patterns of recent breaks of the Hayward fault are consistent with those found within the creeping section of the San Andreas, and they appear to have plausible physical explanations in the findings of laboratory experiments. The distinguishing geometric features of the examined locked and creeping faults are: (1) P-type second-order traces predominate over R(Riedel)-type traces in creeping sections; and (2) R-type second-order traces make smaller angles to the local fault strike in creeping sections than they do in locked sections. Two different maps of the Hayward fault gave similar results, supporting the inference that the patterns identified are basic characteristics of the fault rather than artifacts of a particular mapping procedure. P shears predominate over R shears under laboratory conditions that allow dilation within the fault zone. In our own experiments, P-shear development was favored by the generation of excess pore-fluid pressures. We propose that creep in California faults also is the result of fluid overpressures that are maintained in a low-permeability gouge zone and that significantly lower effective stresses, thus helping to stabilize slip and producing high values of the ratio P/R. Small R-trace angles may also be an indicator of low effective stresses, but the evidence for this is not conclusive because other factors can also affect the size of the angles. ?? 1992.

Petrography and physical properties of selected rock types associated with the Hayward Fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Diane E.; Ponce, David A.

2001-01-01

A larger group of samples, most of them 1"-diameter cores, on which density and magnetic susceptibility measurements were made as part of gravity and magnetic surveys of the Hayward Fault. Because this second group of samples received less extensive laboratory study, examination of them was limited to standard petrographic microscope examination of covered thin sections. The density and susceptibility measurements of this second group of samples are included in this report.

Afterslip behavior following the M6.0, 2014 South Napa earthquake with implications for afterslip forecasting on other seismogenic faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lienkaemper, James J.; DeLong, Stephen B.; Domrose, Carolyn J; Rosa, Carla M.

2016-01-01

The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the scientific and engineering challenges of afterslip from a much larger M~7 earthquake anticipated on the nearby, urban Hayward Fault. However, we expect its afterslip to last much longer than one year.The M6.0, 24 Aug. 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake exhibited unusually large slip for a California strike-slip event of its size with a maximum coseismic surface slip of 40-50 cm in the north section of the 15 km-long rupture. Although only minor (<10 cm) surface slip occurred coseismically in the southern 9-km section of the rupture, there was considerable postseismic slip, so that the maximum total slip one year after the event approached 40-50 cm, about equal to the coseismic maximum in the north. We measured the accumulation of postseismic surface slip on four, ~100-m-long alignment arrays for one year following the event. Because prolonged afterslip can delay reconstruction of fault-damaged buildings and infrastructure, we analyzed its gradual decay to estimate when significant afterslip would likely end. This forecasting of Napa afterslip suggests how we might approach the

The HayWired earthquake scenario—We can outsmart disaster

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hudnut, Kenneth W.; Wein, Anne M.; Cox, Dale A.; Porter, Keith A.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Bruce, Jennifer L.; LaPointe, Drew

2018-04-18

The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The fault is along the east side of California’s San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. One way to learn about a large earthquake without experiencing it is to conduct a scientifically realistic scenario. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition and the HayWired Campaign are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in ongoing and new efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.

Ground Motions Due to Earthquakes on Creeping Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, R.; Abrahamson, N. A.

2014-12-01

We investigate the peak ground motions from the largest well-recorded earthquakes on creeping strike-slip faults in active-tectonic continental regions. Our goal is to evaluate if the strong ground motions from earthquakes on creeping faults are smaller than the strong ground motions from earthquakes on locked faults. Smaller ground motions might be expected from earthquakes on creeping faults if the fault sections that strongly radiate energy are surrounded by patches of fault that predominantly absorb energy. For our study we used the ground motion data available in the PEER NGA-West2 database, and the ground motion prediction equations that were developed from the PEER NGA-West2 dataset. We analyzed data for the eleven largest well-recorded creeping-fault earthquakes, that ranged in magnitude from M5.0-6.5. Our findings are that these earthquakes produced peak ground motions that are statistically indistinguishable from the peak ground motions produced by similar-magnitude earthquakes on locked faults. These findings may be implemented in earthquake hazard estimates for moderate-size earthquakes in creeping-fault regions. Further investigation is necessary to determine if this result will also apply to larger earthquakes on creeping faults. Please also see: Harris, R.A., and N.A. Abrahamson (2014), Strong ground motions generated by earthquakes on creeping faults, Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL060228.

The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

2017-04-24

ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

Geodetically inferred coseismic and postseismic slip due to the M 5.4 31 October 2007 Alum Rock earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murray-Moraleda, J. R.; Simpson, R.W.

2009-01-01

On 31 October 2007 the M 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake occurred near the junction between the Hayward and Calaveras faults in the San Francisco Bay Area, producing coseismic and postseismic displacements recorded by 10 continuously operating Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments. The cumulative postseismic displacements over the four months following the earthquake are linearly related to the cumulative number of aftershocks and are comparable in magnitude to the coseis mic displacements. The postseismic signal suggests that, in addition to afterslip at seismogenic depths, localized right-lateral/reverse slip occurred on dipping shallow fault surfaces southwest of the Calaveras. The spatial distribution of slip inferred by inverting the GPS data is compatible with a model in which moderate Calaveras fault earthquakes rupture locked patches surrounded by areas of creep, afterslip, and microseismicity (Oppenheimer et al., 1990). If this model and existing Calaveras fault slip rate estimates are correct, a slip deficit remains on the 2007 Alum Rock rupture patch that may be made up by aseismic slip or slip in larger earthquakes. Recent studies (e.g., Manaker et al., 2005) suggest that at depth the Hayward and central Calaveras faults connect via a simple continuous surface illuminated by the Mission Seismic Trend (MST), implying that a damaging earthquake rupture could involve both faults (Graymer et al., 2008). If this geometry is correct, the combined coseismic and postseismic slip we infer for the 2007 Alum Rock event predicts static Coulomb stress increases of ???0:6 bar on the MST surface and on the northern Calaveras fault ???5 km northwest of the Alum Rock hypocenter.

Anomalously low strength of serpentinite sheared against granite and implications for creep on the Hayward and Calaveras Faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Diane E.; Lockner, David A.; Ponce, David A.

2010-01-01

Serpentinized ophiolitic rocks are juxtaposed against quartzofeldspathic rocks at depth across considerable portions of the Hayward and Calaveras Faults. The marked compositional contrast between these rock types may contribute to fault creep that has been observed along these faults. To investigate this possibility, we are conducting hydrothermal shearing experiments to look for changes in frictional properties resulting from the shear of ultramafic rock juxtaposed against quartzose rock units. In this paper we report the first results in this effort: shear of bare-rock surfaces of serpentinite and granite, and shear of antigorite-serpentinite gouge between forcing blocks of granitic rock. All experiments were conducted at 250°C. Serpentinite sheared against granite at 50 MPa pore-fluid pressure is weaker than either rock type separately, and the weakening is significantly more pronounced at lower shearing rates. In contrast, serpentinite gouge sheared dry between granite blocks is as strong as the bare granite surface. We propose that the weakening is the result of a solution-transfer process involving the dissolution of serpentine minerals at grain-to-grain contacts. Dissolution of serpentine is enhanced by modifications to pore-fluid chemistry caused by interaction of the fluid with the quartz-bearing rocks. The compositional differences between serpentinized ultramafic rocks of the Coast Range Ophiolite and quartzofeldspathic rock units such as those of the Franciscan Complex may provide the mechanism for aseismic slip (creep) in the shallow crust along the Hayward, Calaveras, and other creeping faults in central and northern California.

Hotspots, Lifelines, and the Safrr Haywired Earthquake Sequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratliff, J. L.; Porter, K.

2014-12-01

Though California has experienced many large earthquakes (San Francisco, 1906; Loma Prieta, 1989; Northridge, 1994), the San Francisco Bay Area has not had a damaging earthquake for 25 years. Earthquake risk and surging reliance on smartphones and the Internet to handle everyday tasks raise the question: is an increasingly technology-reliant Bay Area prepared for potential infrastructure impacts caused by a major earthquake? How will a major earthquake on the Hayward Fault affect lifelines (roads, power, water, communication, etc.)? The U.S. Geological Survey Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) program's Haywired disaster scenario, a hypothetical two-year earthquake sequence triggered by a M7.05 mainshock on the Hayward Fault, addresses these and other questions. We explore four geographic aspects of lifeline damage from earthquakes: (1) geographic lifeline concentrations, (2) areas where lifelines pass through high shaking or potential ground-failure zones, (3) areas with diminished lifeline service demand due to severe building damage, and (4) areas with increased lifeline service demand due to displaced residents and businesses. Potential mainshock lifeline vulnerability and spatial demand changes will be discerned by superimposing earthquake shaking, liquefaction probability, and landslide probability damage thresholds with lifeline concentrations and with large-capacity shelters. Intersecting high hazard levels and lifeline clusters represent potential lifeline susceptibility hotspots. We will also analyze possible temporal vulnerability and demand changes using an aftershock shaking threshold. The results of this analysis will inform regional lifeline resilience initiatives and response and recovery planning, as well as reveal potential redundancies and weaknesses for Bay Area lifelines. Identified spatial and temporal hotspots can provide stakeholders with a reference for possible systemic vulnerability resulting from an earthquake sequence.

Homogeneity of small-scale earthquake faulting, stress, and fault strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, J.L.

2006-01-01

Small-scale faulting at seismogenic depths in the crust appears to be more homogeneous than previously thought. I study three new high-quality focal-mechanism datasets of small (M < ??? 3) earthquakes in southern California, the east San Francisco Bay, and the aftershock sequence of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. I quantify the degree of mechanism variability on a range of length scales by comparing the hypocentral disctance between every pair of events and the angular difference between their focal mechanisms. Closely spaced earthquakes (interhypocentral distance faults of many orientations may or may not be present, only similarly oriented fault planes produce earthquakes contemporaneously. On these short length scales, the crustal stress orientation and fault strength (coefficient of friction) are inferred to be homogeneous as well, to produce such similar earthquakes. Over larger length scales (???2-50 km), focal mechanisms become more diverse with increasing interhypocentral distance (differing on average by 40-70??). Mechanism variability on ???2- to 50 km length scales can be explained by ralatively small variations (???30%) in stress or fault strength. It is possible that most of this small apparent heterogeneity in stress of strength comes from measurement error in the focal mechanisms, as negligibble variation in stress or fault strength (<10%) is needed if each earthquake is assigned the optimally oriented focal mechanism within the 1-sigma confidence region. This local homogeneity in stress orientation and fault strength is encouraging, implying it may be possible to measure these parameters with enough precision to be useful in studying and modeling large earthquakes.

Strong ground motions generated by earthquakes on creeping faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, Ruth A.; Abrahamson, Norman A.

2014-01-01

A tenet of earthquake science is that faults are locked in position until they abruptly slip during the sudden strain-relieving events that are earthquakes. Whereas it is expected that locked faults when they finally do slip will produce noticeable ground shaking, what is uncertain is how the ground shakes during earthquakes on creeping faults. Creeping faults are rare throughout much of the Earth's continental crust, but there is a group of them in the San Andreas fault system. Here we evaluate the strongest ground motions from the largest well-recorded earthquakes on creeping faults. We find that the peak ground motions generated by the creeping fault earthquakes are similar to the peak ground motions generated by earthquakes on locked faults. Our findings imply that buildings near creeping faults need to be designed to withstand the same level of shaking as those constructed near locked faults.

Fault lubrication during earthquakes.

PubMed

Di Toro, G; Han, R; Hirose, T; De Paola, N; Nielsen, S; Mizoguchi, K; Ferri, F; Cocco, M; Shimamoto, T

2011-03-24

The determination of rock friction at seismic slip rates (about 1 m s(-1)) is of paramount importance in earthquake mechanics, as fault friction controls the stress drop, the mechanical work and the frictional heat generated during slip. Given the difficulty in determining friction by seismological methods, elucidating constraints are derived from experimental studies. Here we review a large set of published and unpublished experiments (∼300) performed in rotary shear apparatus at slip rates of 0.1-2.6 m s(-1). The experiments indicate a significant decrease in friction (of up to one order of magnitude), which we term fault lubrication, both for cohesive (silicate-built, quartz-built and carbonate-built) rocks and non-cohesive rocks (clay-rich, anhydrite, gypsum and dolomite gouges) typical of crustal seismogenic sources. The available mechanical work and the associated temperature rise in the slipping zone trigger a number of physicochemical processes (gelification, decarbonation and dehydration reactions, melting and so on) whose products are responsible for fault lubrication. The similarity between (1) experimental and natural fault products and (2) mechanical work measures resulting from these laboratory experiments and seismological estimates suggests that it is reasonable to extrapolate experimental data to conditions typical of earthquake nucleation depths (7-15 km). It seems that faults are lubricated during earthquakes, irrespective of the fault rock composition and of the specific weakening mechanism involved.

Stress sensitivity of fault seismicity: A comparison between limited-offset oblique and major strike-slip faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Stein, R.S.; Simpson, R.W.; Reasenberg, P.A.

1999-01-01

We present a new three-dimensional inventory of the southern San Francisco Bay area faults and use it to calculate stress applied principally by the 1989 M = 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake and to compare fault seismicity rates before and after 1989. The major high-angle right-lateral faults exhibit a different response to the stress change than do minor oblique (right-lateral/thrust) faults. Seismicity on oblique-slip faults in the southern Santa Clara Valley thrust belt increased where the faults were unclamped. The strong dependence of seismicity change on normal stress change implies a high coefficient of static friction. In contrast, we observe that faults with significant offset (>50-100 km) behave differently; microseismicity on the Hayward fault diminished where right-lateral shear stress was reduced and where it was unclamped by the Loma Prieta earthquake. We observe a similar response on the San Andreas fault zone in southern California after the Landers earthquake sequence. Additionally, the offshore San Gregorio fault shows a seismicity rate increase where right-lateral/oblique shear stress was increased by the Loma Prieta earthquake despite also being clamped by it. These responses are consistent with either a low coefficient of static friction or high pore fluid pressures within the fault zones. We can explain the different behavior of the two styles of faults if those with large cumulative offset become impermeable through gouge buildup; coseismically pressurized pore fluids could be trapped and negate imposed normal stress changes, whereas in more limited offset faults, fluids could rapidly escape. The difference in behavior between minor and major faults may explain why frictional failure criteria that apply intermediate coefficients of static friction can be effective in describing the broad distributions of aftershocks that follow large earthquakes, since many of these events occur both inside and outside major fault zones.

Transform fault earthquakes in the North Atlantic: Source mechanisms and depth of faulting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bergman, Eric A.; Solomon, Sean C.

1987-01-01

The centroid depths and source mechanisms of 12 large earthquakes on transform faults of the northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge were determined from an inversion of long-period body waveforms. The earthquakes occurred on the Gibbs, Oceanographer, Hayes, Kane, 15 deg 20 min, and Vema transforms. The depth extent of faulting during each earthquake was estimated from the centroid depth and the fault width. The source mechanisms for all events in this study display the strike slip motion expected for transform fault earthquakes; slip vector azimuths agree to 2 to 3 deg of the local strike of the zone of active faulting. The only anomalies in mechanism were for two earthquakes near the western end of the Vema transform which occurred on significantly nonvertical fault planes. Secondary faulting, occurring either precursory to or near the end of the main episode of strike-slip rupture, was observed for 5 of the 12 earthquakes. For three events the secondary faulting was characterized by reverse motion on fault planes striking oblique to the trend of the transform. In all three cases, the site of secondary reverse faulting is near a compression jog in the current trace of the active transform fault zone. No evidence was found to support the conclusions of Engeln, Wiens, and Stein that oceanic transform faults in general are either hotter than expected from current thermal models or weaker than normal oceanic lithosphere.

Fault healing promotes high-frequency earthquakes in laboratory experiments and on natural faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaskey, Gregory C.; Thomas, Amanda M.; Glaser, Steven D.; Nadeau, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Faults strengthen or heal with time in stationary contact and this healing may be an essential ingredient for the generation of earthquakes. In the laboratory, healing is thought to be the result of thermally activated mechanisms that weld together micrometre-sized asperity contacts on the fault surface, but the relationship between laboratory measures of fault healing and the seismically observable properties of earthquakes is at present not well defined. Here we report on laboratory experiments and seismological observations that show how the spectral properties of earthquakes vary as a function of fault healing time. In the laboratory, we find that increased healing causes a disproportionately large amount of high-frequency seismic radiation to be produced during fault rupture. We observe a similar connection between earthquake spectra and recurrence time for repeating earthquake sequences on natural faults. Healing rates depend on pressure, temperature and mineralogy, so the connection between seismicity and healing may help to explain recent observations of large megathrust earthquakes which indicate that energetic, high-frequency seismic radiation originates from locations that are distinct from the geodetically inferred locations of large-amplitude fault slip

Late Holocene earthquakes on the Toe Jam Hill fault, Seattle fault zone, Bainbridge Island, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, A.R.; Johnson, S.Y.; Kelsey, H.M.; Wells, R.E.; Sherrod, B.L.; Pezzopane, S.K.; Bradley, L.A.; Koehler, R. D.; Bucknam, R.C.

2003-01-01

Five trenches across a Holocene fault scarp yield the first radiocarbon-measured earthquake recurrence intervals for a crustal fault in western Washington. The scarp, the first to be revealed by laser imagery, marks the Toe Jam Hill fault, a north-dipping backthrust to the Seattle fault. Folded and faulted strata, liquefaction features, and forest soil A horizons buried by hanging-wall-collapse colluvium record three, or possibly four, earthquakes between 2500 and 1000 yr ago. The most recent earthquake is probably the 1050-1020 cal. (calibrated) yr B.P. (A.D. 900-930) earthquake that raised marine terraces and triggered a tsunami in Puget Sound. Vertical deformation estimated from stratigraphic and surface offsets at trench sites suggests late Holocene earthquake magnitudes near M7, corresponding to surface ruptures >36 km long. Deformation features recording poorly understood latest Pleistocene earthquakes suggest that they were smaller than late Holocene earthquakes. Postglacial earthquake recurrence intervals based on 97 radiocarbon ages, most on detrital charcoal, range from ???12,000 yr to as little as a century or less; corresponding fault-slip rates are 0.2 mm/yr for the past 16,000 yr and 2 mm/yr for the past 2500 yr. Because the Toe Jam Hill fault is a backthrust to the Seattle fault, it may not have ruptured during every earthquake on the Seattle fault. But the earthquake history of the Toe Jam Hill fault is at least a partial proxy for the history of the rest of the Seattle fault zone.

Apparent stress, fault maturity and seismic hazard for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Choy, G.L.; Kirby, S.H.

2004-01-01

The behavior of apparent stress for normal-fault earthquakes at subduction zones is derived by examining the apparent stress (?? a = ??Es/Mo, where E s is radiated energy and Mo is seismic moment) of all globally distributed shallow (depth, ?? 1 MPa) are also generally intraslab, but occur where the lithosphere has just begun subduction beneath the overriding plate. They usually occur in cold slabs near trenches where the direction of plate motion across the trench is oblique to the trench axis, or where there are local contortions or geometrical complexities of the plate boundary. Lower ??a (< 1 MPa) is associated with events occurring at the outer rise (OR) complex (between the OR and the trench axis), as well as with intracrustal events occurring just landward of the trench. The average apparent stress of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes is considerably higher than the average apparent stress of interplate-thrust-fault earthquakes. In turn, the average ?? a of strike-slip earthquakes in intraoceanic environments is considerably higher than that of intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes. The variation of average ??a with focal mechanism and tectonic regime suggests that the level of ?? a is related to fault maturity. Lower stress drops are needed to rupture mature faults such as those found at plate interfaces that have been smoothed by large cumulative displacements (from hundreds to thousands of kilometres). In contrast, immature faults, such as those on which intraslab-normal-fault earthquakes generally occur, are found in cold and intact lithosphere in which total fault displacement has been much less (from hundreds of metres to a few kilometres). Also, faults on which high ??a oceanic strike-slip earthquakes occur are predominantly intraplate or at evolving ends of transforms. At subduction zones, earthquakes occurring on immature faults are likely to be more hazardous as they tend to generate higher amounts of radiated energy per unit of moment than

Earthquake behavior along the Levant fault from paleoseismology (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinger, Y.; Le Beon, M.; Wechsler, N.; Rockwell, T. K.

2013-12-01

The Levant fault is a major continental structure 1200 km-long that bounds the Arabian plate to the west. The finite offset of this left-lateral strike-slip fault is estimated to be 105 km for the section located south of the restraining bend corresponding roughly to Lebanon. Along this southern section the slip-rate has been estimated over a large range of time scales, from few years to few hundreds thousands of years. Over these different time scales, studies agree for the slip-rate to be 5mm/yr × 2 mm/yr. The southern section of the Levant fault is particularly attractive to study earthquake behavior through time for several reasons: 1/ The fault geometry is simple and well constrained. 2/ The fault system is isolated and does not interact with obvious neighbor fault systems. 3/ The Middle-East, where the Levant fault is located, is the region in the world where one finds the longest and most complete historical record of past earthquakes. About 30 km north of the city of Aqaba, we opened a trench in the southern part of the Yotvata playa, along the Wadi Araba fault segment. The stratigraphy presents silty sand playa units alternating with coarser sand sediments from alluvial fans flowing westwards from the Jordan plateau. Two fault zones can be recognized in the trench and a minimum of 8 earthquakes can be identified, based on upward terminations of ground ruptures. Dense 14C dating through the entire exposure allows matching the 4 most recent events with historical events in AD1458, AD1212, AD1068 and AD748. Size of the ground rupture suggests a bi-modal distribution of earthquakes with earthquakes rupturing the entire Wadi Araba segment and earthquakes ending in the extensional jog forming the playa. Timing of earthquakes shows that no earthquakes occurred at this site since about 600 years, suggesting earthquake clustering along this section of the fault and potential for a large earthquake in the near future. 3D paleoseismological trenches at the Beteiha

Quasi-dynamic earthquake fault systems with rheological heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zoeller, G.; Holschneider, M.

2009-12-01

Seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates, such models cannot allow for physical statements of the described seismicity. In contrary such empirical stochastic models, physics based earthquake fault systems models allow for a physical reasoning and interpretation of the produced seismicity and system dynamics. Recently different fault system earthquake simulators based on frictional stick-slip behavior have been used to study effects of stress heterogeneity, rheological heterogeneity, or geometrical complexity on earthquake occurrence, spatial and temporal clustering of earthquakes, and system dynamics. Here we present a comparison of characteristics of synthetic earthquake catalogs produced by two different formulations of quasi-dynamic fault system earthquake simulators. Both models are based on discretized frictional faults embedded in an elastic half-space. While one (1) is governed by rate- and state-dependent friction with allowing three evolutionary stages of independent fault patches, the other (2) is governed by instantaneous frictional weakening with scheduled (and therefore causal) stress transfer. We analyze spatial and temporal clustering of events and characteristics of system dynamics by means of physical parameters of the two approaches.

Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Tom

2018-02-01

Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >106 variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions.

Determining on-fault earthquake magnitude distributions from integer programming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Geist, Eric L.; Parsons, Thomas E.

2018-01-01

Earthquake magnitude distributions among faults within a fault system are determined from regional seismicity and fault slip rates using binary integer programming. A synthetic earthquake catalog (i.e., list of randomly sampled magnitudes) that spans millennia is first formed, assuming that regional seismicity follows a Gutenberg-Richter relation. Each earthquake in the synthetic catalog can occur on any fault and at any location. The objective is to minimize misfits in the target slip rate for each fault, where slip for each earthquake is scaled from its magnitude. The decision vector consists of binary variables indicating which locations are optimal among all possibilities. Uncertainty estimates in fault slip rates provide explicit upper and lower bounding constraints to the problem. An implicit constraint is that an earthquake can only be located on a fault if it is long enough to contain that earthquake. A general mixed-integer programming solver, consisting of a number of different algorithms, is used to determine the optimal decision vector. A case study is presented for the State of California, where a 4 kyr synthetic earthquake catalog is created and faults with slip ≥3 mm/yr are considered, resulting in >106  variables. The optimal magnitude distributions for each of the faults in the system span a rich diversity of shapes, ranging from characteristic to power-law distributions. 

A grid-doubling finite-element technique for calculating dynamic three-dimensional spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barall, Michael

2009-01-01

We present a new finite-element technique for calculating dynamic 3-D spontaneous rupture on an earthquake fault, which can reduce the required computational resources by a factor of six or more, without loss of accuracy. The grid-doubling technique employs small cells in a thin layer surrounding the fault. The remainder of the modelling volume is filled with larger cells, typically two or four times as large as the small cells. In the resulting non-conforming mesh, an interpolation method is used to join the thin layer of smaller cells to the volume of larger cells. Grid-doubling is effective because spontaneous rupture calculations typically require higher spatial resolution on and near the fault than elsewhere in the model volume. The technique can be applied to non-planar faults by morphing, or smoothly distorting, the entire mesh to produce the desired 3-D fault geometry. Using our FaultMod finite-element software, we have tested grid-doubling with both slip-weakening and rate-and-state friction laws, by running the SCEC/USGS 3-D dynamic rupture benchmark problems. We have also applied it to a model of the Hayward fault, Northern California, which uses realistic fault geometry and rock properties. FaultMod implements fault slip using common nodes, which represent motion common to both sides of the fault, and differential nodes, which represent motion of one side of the fault relative to the other side. We describe how to modify the traction-at-split-nodes method to work with common and differential nodes, using an implicit time stepping algorithm.

Features and dimensions of the Hayward Fault Zone in the Strawberry and Blackberry Creek Area, Berkeley, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williams, P.L.

1995-03-01

This report presents an examination of the geometry of the Hayward fault adjacent to the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and University of California campuses in central Berkeley. The fault crosses inside the eastern border of the UC campus. Most subtle geomorphic (landform) expressions of the fault have been removed by development and by the natural processes of landsliding and erosion. Some clear expressions of the fault remain however, and these are key to mapping the main trace through the campus area. In addition, original geomorphic evidence of the fault`s location was recovered from large scale mapping of the site dating frommore » 1873 to 1897. Before construction obscured and removed natural landforms, the fault was expressed by a linear, northwest-tending zone of fault-related geomorphic features. There existed well-defined and subtle stream offsets and beheaded channels, fault scarps, and a prominent ``shutter ridge``. To improve our confidence in fault locations interpreted from landforms, we referred to clear fault exposures revealed in trenching, revealed during the construction of the Foothill Housing Complex, and revealed along the length of the Lawson Adit mining tunnel. Also utilized were the locations of offset cultural features. At several locations across the study area, distress features in buildings and streets have been used to precisely locate the fault. Recent published mapping of the fault (Lienkaemper, 1992) was principally used for reference to evidence of the fault`s location to the northwest and southeast of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory.« less

Fault weakening and earthquake instability by powder lubrication

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reches, Z.; Lockner, D.A.

2010-01-01

Earthquake instability has long been attributed to fault weakening during accelerated slip1, and a central question of earthquake physics is identifying the mechanisms that control this weakening2. Even with much experimental effort2-12, the weakening mechanisms have remained enigmatic. Here we present evidence for dynamic weakening of experimental faults that are sheared at velocities approaching earthquake slip rates. The experimental faults, which were made of room-dry, solid granite blocks, quickly wore to form a fine-grain rock powder known as gouge. At modest slip velocities of 10-60mms-1, this newly formed gouge organized itself into a thin deforming layer that reduced the fault's strength by a factor of 2-3. After slip, the gouge rapidly 'aged' and the fault regained its strength in a matter of hours to days. Therefore, only newly formed gouge can weaken the experimental faults. Dynamic gouge formation is expected to be a common and effective mechanism of earthquake instability in the brittle crust as (1) gouge always forms during fault slip5,10,12-20; (2) fault-gouge behaves similarly to industrial powder lubricants21; (3) dynamic gouge formation explains various significant earthquake properties; and (4) gouge lubricant can form for a wide range of fault configurations, compositions and temperatures15. ?? 2010 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Stress before and after the 2002 Denali fault earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.

2007-01-01

Spatially averaged, absolute deviatoric stress tensors along the faults ruptured during the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, both before and after the event, are derived, using a new method, from estimates of the orientations of the principal stresses and the stress change associated with the earthquake. Stresses are estimated in three regions along the Denali fault, one of which also includes the Susitna Glacier fault, and one region along the Totschunda fault. Estimates of the spatially averaged shear stress before the earthquake resolved onto the faults that ruptured during the event range from near 1 MPa to near 4 MPa. Shear stresses estimated along the faults in all these regions after the event are near zero (0 ?? 1 MPa). These results suggest that deviatoric stresses averaged over a few tens of km along strike are low, and that the stress drop during the earthquake was complete or nearly so.

Lacustrine Paleoseismology Reveals Earthquake Segmentation of the Alpine Fault, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howarth, J. D.; Fitzsimons, S.; Norris, R.; Langridge, R. M.

2013-12-01

Transform plate boundary faults accommodate high rates of strain and are capable of producing large (Mw>7.0) to great (Mw>8.0) earthquakes that pose significant seismic hazard. The Alpine Fault in New Zealand is one of the longest, straightest and fastest slipping plate boundary transform faults on Earth and produces earthquakes at quasi-periodic intervals. Theoretically, the fault's linearity, isolation from other faults and quasi-periodicity should promote the generation of earthquakes that have similar magnitudes over multiple seismic cycles. We test the hypothesis that the Alpine Fault produces quasi-regular earthquakes that contiguously rupture the southern and central fault segments, using a novel lacustrine paleoseismic proxy to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture over the last 2000 years. In three lakes located close to the Alpine Fault the last nine earthquakes are recorded as megaturbidites formed by co-seismic subaqueous slope failures, which occur when shaking exceeds Modified Mercalli (MM) VII. When the fault ruptures adjacent to a lake the co-seismic megaturbidites are overlain by stacks of turbidites produced by enhanced fluvial sediment fluxes from earthquake-induced landslides. The turbidite stacks record shaking intensities of MM>IX in the lake catchments and can be used to map the spatial location of fault rupture. The lake records can be dated precisely, facilitating meaningful along strike correlations, and the continuous records allow earthquakes closely spaced in time on adjacent fault segments to be distinguished. The results show that while multi-segment ruptures of the Alpine Fault occurred during most seismic cycles, sequential earthquakes on adjacent segments and single segment ruptures have also occurred. The complexity of the fault rupture pattern suggests that the subtle variations in fault geometry, sense of motion and slip rate that have been used to distinguish the central and southern segments of the Alpine

Long-term fault creep observations in central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Sandra S.; Mavko, Gerald M.; Burford, Robert O.; Stuart, William D.

1982-08-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been monitoring aseismic fault slip in central California for more than 10 years as part of an earthquake prediction experiment. Since 1968, the USGS creep network has grown from one creep meter at the Cienega Winery south of Hollister to a 44-station network that stretches from Hayward, east of San Francisco Bay, to Palmdale in southern California. In general, the long-term slip pattern is most variable on sections of the faults where several magnitude 4 and larger earthquakes occurred during the recording period (e.g., Calaveras fault near Hollister and San Andreas fault between San Juan Bautista and Bear Valley). These fault sections are the most difficult to characterize with a single long-term slip rate. In contrast, sections of the faults that are seismically relatively quiet (e.g., San Andreas fault between Bear Valley and Parkfield) produce the steadiest creep records and are easiest to fit with a single long-term slip rate. Appendix is available with entire article on microfiche. Order from the American Geophysical Union, 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20009. Document J82-004; $1.00. Payment must accompany order.

Normal fault earthquakes or graviquakes

PubMed Central

Doglioni, C.; Carminati, E.; Petricca, P.; Riguzzi, F.

2015-01-01

Earthquakes are dissipation of energy throughout elastic waves. Canonically is the elastic energy accumulated during the interseismic period. However, in crustal extensional settings, gravity is the main energy source for hangingwall fault collapsing. Gravitational potential is about 100 times larger than the observed magnitude, far more than enough to explain the earthquake. Therefore, normal faults have a different mechanism of energy accumulation and dissipation (graviquakes) with respect to other tectonic settings (strike-slip and contractional), where elastic energy allows motion even against gravity. The bigger the involved volume, the larger is their magnitude. The steeper the normal fault, the larger is the vertical displacement and the larger is the seismic energy released. Normal faults activate preferentially at about 60° but they can be shallower in low friction rocks. In low static friction rocks, the fault may partly creep dissipating gravitational energy without releasing great amount of seismic energy. The maximum volume involved by graviquakes is smaller than the other tectonic settings, being the activated fault at most about three times the hypocentre depth, explaining their higher b-value and the lower magnitude of the largest recorded events. Having different phenomenology, graviquakes show peculiar precursors. PMID:26169163

Dynamics of folding: Impact of fault bend folds on earthquake cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathiakumar, S.; Barbot, S.; Hubbard, J.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes in subduction zones and subaerial convergent margins are some of the largest in the world. So far, forecasts of future earthquakes have primarily relied on assessing past earthquakes to look for seismic gaps and slip deficits. However, the roles of fault geometry and off-fault plasticity are typically overlooked. We use structural geology (fault-bend folding theory) to inform fault modeling in order to better understand how deformation is accommodated on the geological time scale and through the earthquake cycle. Fault bends in megathrusts, like those proposed for the Nepal Himalaya, will induce folding of the upper plate. This introduces changes in the slip rate on different fault segments, and therefore on the loading rate at the plate interface, profoundly affecting the pattern of earthquake cycles. We develop numerical simulations of slip evolution under rate-and-state friction and show that this effect introduces segmentation of the earthquake cycle. In crustal dynamics, it is challenging to describe the dynamics of fault-bend folds, because the deformation is accommodated by small amounts of slip parallel to bedding planes ("flexural slip"), localized on axial surface, i.e. folding axes pinned to fault bends. We use dislocation theory to describe the dynamics of folding along these axial surfaces, using analytic solutions that provide displacement and stress kernels to simulate the temporal evolution of folding and assess the effects of folding on earthquake cycles. Studies of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal, have shown that fault geometry can affect earthquake segmentation. Here, we show that in addition to the fault geometry, the actual geology of the rocks in the hanging wall of the fault also affect critical parameters, including the loading rate on parts of the fault, based on fault-bend folding theory. Because loading velocity controls the recurrence time of earthquakes, these two effects together are likely to have a strong impact on the

Comparative study of two active faults in different stages of the earthquake cycle in central Japan -The Atera fault (with 1586 Tensho earthquake) and the Nojima fault (with 1995 Kobe earthquake)-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsuda, T.; Omura, K.; Ikeda, R.

2003-12-01

National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) has been conducting _gFault zone drilling_h. Fault zone drilling is especially important in understanding the structure, composition, and physical properties of an active fault. In the Chubu district of central Japan, large active faults such as the Atotsugawa (with 1858 Hietsu earthquake) and the Atera (with 1586 Tensho earthquake) faults exist. After the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, it has been widely recognized that direct measurements in fault zones by drilling. This time, we describe about the Atera fault and the Nojima fault. Because, these two faults are similar in geological situation (mostly composed of granitic rocks), so it is easy to do comparative study of drilling investigation. The features of the Atera fault, which have been dislocated by the 1586 Tensho earthquake, are as follows. Total length is about 70 km. That general trend is NW45 degree with a left-lateral strike slip. Slip rate is estimated as 3-5 m / 1000 years. Seismicity is very low at present and lithologies around the fault are basically granitic rocks and rhyolite. Six boreholes have been drilled from the depth of 400 m to 630 m. Four of these boreholes (Hatajiri, Fukuoka, Ueno and Kawaue) are located on a line crossing in a direction perpendicular to the Atera fault. In the Kawaue well, mostly fractured and alternating granitic rock continued from the surface to the bottom at 630 m. X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) is conducted to estimate the amount of major chemical elements using the glass bead method for core samples. The amounts of H20+ are about from 0.5 to 2.5 weight percent. This fractured zone is also characterized by the logging data such as low resistivity, low P-wave velocity, low density and high neutron porosity. The 1995 Kobe (Hyogo-ken Nanbu) earthquake occurred along the NE-SW-trending Rokko-Awaji fault system, and the Nojima fault appeared on the surface on Awaji Island when this

The Active Fault Parameters for Time-Dependent Earthquake Hazard Assessment in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Y.; Cheng, C.; Lin, P.; Shao, K.; Wu, Y.; Shih, C.

2011-12-01

Taiwan is located at the boundary between the Philippine Sea Plate and the Eurasian Plate, with a convergence rate of ~ 80 mm/yr in a ~N118E direction. The plate motion is so active that earthquake is very frequent. In the Taiwan area, disaster-inducing earthquakes often result from active faults. For this reason, it's an important subject to understand the activity and hazard of active faults. The active faults in Taiwan are mainly located in the Western Foothills and the Eastern longitudinal valley. Active fault distribution map published by the Central Geological Survey (CGS) in 2010 shows that there are 31 active faults in the island of Taiwan and some of which are related to earthquake. Many researchers have investigated these active faults and continuously update new data and results, but few people have integrated them for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. In this study, we want to gather previous researches and field work results and then integrate these data as an active fault parameters table for time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment. We are going to gather the seismic profiles or earthquake relocation of a fault and then combine the fault trace on land to establish the 3D fault geometry model in GIS system. We collect the researches of fault source scaling in Taiwan and estimate the maximum magnitude from fault length or fault area. We use the characteristic earthquake model to evaluate the active fault earthquake recurrence interval. In the other parameters, we will collect previous studies or historical references and complete our parameter table of active faults in Taiwan. The WG08 have done the time-dependent earthquake hazard assessment of active faults in California. They established the fault models, deformation models, earthquake rate models, and probability models and then compute the probability of faults in California. Following these steps, we have the preliminary evaluated probability of earthquake-related hazards in certain

How fault geometry controls earthquake magnitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bletery, Q.; Thomas, A.; Karlstrom, L.; Rempel, A. W.; Sladen, A.; De Barros, L.

2016-12-01

Recent large megathrust earthquakes, such as the Mw9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in 2004 and the Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in 2011, astonished the scientific community. The first event occurred in a relatively low-convergence-rate subduction zone where events of its size were unexpected. The second event involved 60 m of shallow slip in a region thought to be aseismicaly creeping and hence incapable of hosting very large magnitude earthquakes. These earthquakes highlight gaps in our understanding of mega-earthquake rupture processes and the factors controlling their global distribution. Here we show that gradients in dip angle exert a primary control on mega-earthquake occurrence. We calculate the curvature along the major subduction zones of the world and show that past mega-earthquakes occurred on flat (low-curvature) interfaces. A simplified analytic model demonstrates that shear strength heterogeneity increases with curvature. Stress loading on flat megathrusts is more homogeneous and hence more likely to be released simultaneously over large areas than on highly-curved faults. Therefore, the absence of asperities on large faults might counter-intuitively be a source of higher hazard.

Dynamic 3D simulations of earthquakes on en echelon faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

1999-01-01

One of the mysteries of earthquake mechanics is why earthquakes stop. This process determines the difference between small and devastating ruptures. One possibility is that fault geometry controls earthquake size. We test this hypothesis using a numerical algorithm that simulates spontaneous rupture propagation in a three-dimensional medium and apply our knowledge to two California fault zones. We find that the size difference between the 1934 and 1966 Parkfield, California, earthquakes may be the product of a stepover at the southern end of the 1934 earthquake and show how the 1992 Landers, California, earthquake followed physically reasonable expectations when it jumped across en echelon faults to become a large event. If there are no linking structures, such as transfer faults, then strike-slip earthquakes are unlikely to propagate through stepovers >5 km wide. Copyright 1999 by the American Geophysical Union.

Modelling earthquake ruptures with dynamic off-fault damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okubo, Kurama; Bhat, Harsha S.; Klinger, Yann; Rougier, Esteban

2017-04-01

Earthquake rupture modelling has been developed for producing scenario earthquakes. This includes understanding the source mechanisms and estimating far-field ground motion with given a priori constraints like fault geometry, constitutive law of the medium and friction law operating on the fault. It is necessary to consider all of the above complexities of a fault systems to conduct realistic earthquake rupture modelling. In addition to the complexity of the fault geometry in nature, coseismic off-fault damage, which is observed by a variety of geological and seismological methods, plays a considerable role on the resultant ground motion and its spectrum compared to a model with simple planer fault surrounded by purely elastic media. Ideally all of these complexities should be considered in earthquake modelling. State of the art techniques developed so far, however, cannot treat all of them simultaneously due to a variety of computational restrictions. Therefore, we adopt the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM), which can effectively deal with pre-existing complex fault geometry such as fault branches and kinks and can describe coseismic off-fault damage generated during the dynamic rupture. The advantage of FDEM is that it can handle a wide range of length scales, from metric to kilometric scale, corresponding to the off-fault damage and complex fault geometry respectively. We used the FDEM-based software tool called HOSSedu (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite - Educational Version) for the earthquake rupture modelling, which was developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. We firstly conducted the cross-validation of this new methodology against other conventional numerical schemes such as the finite difference method (FDM), the spectral element method (SEM) and the boundary integral equation method (BIEM), to evaluate the accuracy with various element sizes and artificial viscous damping values. We demonstrate the capability of the FDEM tool for

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieterich, J.H.; Kilgore, B.

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance D(c), apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time- dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of D, apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of D(c) is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed Central

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-01-01

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks. Images Fig. 3 PMID:11607666

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Dieterich, J H; Kilgore, B

1996-04-30

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

Geometry and earthquake potential of the shoreline fault, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.

2013-01-01

The Shoreline fault is a vertical strike‐slip fault running along the coastline near San Luis Obispo, California. Much is unknown about the Shoreline fault, including its slip rate and the details of its geometry. Here, I study the geometry of the Shoreline fault at seismogenic depth, as well as the adjacent section of the offshore Hosgri fault, using seismicity relocations and earthquake focal mechanisms. The Optimal Anisotropic Dynamic Clustering (OADC) algorithm (Ouillon et al., 2008) is used to objectively identify the simplest planar fault geometry that fits all of the earthquakes to within their location uncertainty. The OADC results show that the Shoreline fault is a single continuous structure that connects to the Hosgri fault. Discontinuities smaller than about 1 km may be undetected, but would be too small to be barriers to earthquake rupture. The Hosgri fault dips steeply to the east, while the Shoreline fault is essentially vertical, so the Hosgri fault dips towards and under the Shoreline fault as the two faults approach their intersection. The focal mechanisms generally agree with pure right‐lateral strike‐slip on the OADC planes, but suggest a non‐planar Hosgri fault or another structure underlying the northern Shoreline fault. The Shoreline fault most likely transfers strike‐slip motion between the Hosgri fault and other faults of the Pacific–North America plate boundary system to the east. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the entire known length of the Shoreline fault would have a moment magnitude of 6.4–6.8. A hypothetical earthquake rupturing the Shoreline fault and the section of the Hosgri fault north of the Hosgri–Shoreline junction would have a moment magnitude of 7.2–7.5.

Supercomputing meets seismology in earthquake exhibit

ScienceCinema

Blackwell, Matt; Rodger, Arthur; Kennedy, Tom

2018-02-14

When the California Academy of Sciences created the "Earthquake: Evidence of a Restless Planet" exhibit, they called on Lawrence Livermore to help combine seismic research with the latest data-driven visualization techniques. The outcome is a series of striking visualizations of earthquakes, tsunamis and tectonic plate evolution. Seismic-wave research is a core competency at Livermore. While most often associated with earthquakes, the research has many other applications of national interest, such as nuclear explosion monitoring, explosion forensics, energy exploration, and seismic acoustics. For the Academy effort, Livermore researchers simulated the San Andreas and Hayward fault events at high resolutions. Such calculations require significant computational resources. To simulate the 1906 earthquake, for instance, visualizing 125 seconds of ground motion required over 1 billion grid points, 10,000 time steps, and 7.5 hours of processor time on 2,048 cores of Livermore's Sierra machine.

Earthquake Nucleation and Fault Slip: Possible Experiments on a Natural Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germanovich, L. N.; Murdoch, L. C.; Garagash, D.; Reches, Z.; Martel, S. J.; Johnston, M. J.; Ebenhack, J.; Gwaba, D.

2011-12-01

High-resolution deformation and seismic observations are usually made only near the Earths' surface, kilometers away from where earthquake nucleate on active faults and are limited by inverse-cube-distance attenuation and ground noise. We have developed an experimental approach that aims at reactivating faults in-situ using thermal techniques and fluid injection, which modify in-situ stresses and the fault strength until the fault slips. Mines where in-situ stresses are sufficient to drive faulting present an opportunity to conduct such experiments. The former Homestake gold mine in South Dakota is a good example. During our recent field work in the Homestake mine, we found a large fault that intersects multiple mine levels. The size and distinct structure of this fault make it a promising target for in-situ reactivation, which would likely to be localized on a crack-like patch. Slow patch propagation, moderated by the injection rate and the rate of change of the background stresses, may become unstable, leading to the nucleation of a dynamic earthquake rupture. Our analyses for the Homestake fault conditions indicate that this transition occurs for a patch size ~1 m. This represents a fundamental limitation for laboratory experiments and necessitates larger-scale field tests ~10-100 m. The opportunity to observe earthquake nucleation on the Homestake Fault is feasible because slip could be initiated at a pre-defined location and time with instrumentation placed as close as a few meters from the nucleation site. Designing the experiment requires a detailed assessment of the state-of-stress in the vicinity of the fault. This is being conducted by simulating changes in pore pressure and effective stresses accompanying dewatering of the mine, and by evaluating in-situ stress measurements in light of a regional stress field modified by local perturbations caused by the mine workings.

Scaling Relations of Earthquakes on Inland Active Mega-Fault Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Matsushima, S.; Azuma, T.; Irikura, K.; Kitagawa, S.

2010-12-01

Since 2005, The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP) has been publishing 'National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan' to provide useful information for disaster prevention countermeasures for the country and local public agencies, as well as promote public awareness of disaster prevention of earthquakes. In the course of making the year 2009 version of the map, which is the commemorate of the tenth anniversary of the settlement of the Comprehensive Basic Policy, the methods to evaluate magnitude of earthquakes, to predict strong ground motion, and to construct underground structure were investigated in the Earthquake Research Committee and its subcommittees. In order to predict the magnitude of earthquakes occurring on mega-fault systems, we examined the scaling relations for mega-fault systems using 11 earthquakes of which source processes were analyzed by waveform inversion and of which surface information was investigated. As a result, we found that the data fit in between the scaling relations of seismic moment and rupture area by Somerville et al. (1999) and Irikura and Miyake (2001). We also found that maximum displacement of surface rupture is two to three times larger than the average slip on the seismic fault and surface fault length is equal to length of the source fault. Furthermore, compiled data of the source fault shows that displacement saturates at 10m when fault length(L) is beyond 100km, L>100km. By assuming the fault width (W) to be 18km in average of inland earthquakes in Japan, and the displacement saturate at 10m for length of more than 100 km, we derived a new scaling relation between source area and seismic moment, S[km^2] = 1.0 x 10^-17 M0 [Nm] for mega-fault systems that seismic moment (M0) exceeds 1.8×10^20 Nm.

Along-strike variations in fault frictional properties along the San Andreas Fault near Cholame, California from joint earthquake and low-frequency earthquake relocations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harrington, Rebecca M.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.; Griffiths, Emily M.; Zeng, Xiangfang; Thurber, Clifford H.

2016-01-01

Recent observations of low‐frequency earthquakes (LFEs) and tectonic tremor along the Parkfield–Cholame segment of the San Andreas fault suggest slow‐slip earthquakes occur in a transition zone between the shallow fault, which accommodates slip by a combination of aseismic creep and earthquakes (<15  km depth), and the deep fault, which accommodates slip by stable sliding (>35  km depth). However, the spatial relationship between shallow earthquakes and LFEs remains unclear. Here, we present precise relocations of 34 earthquakes and 34 LFEs recorded during a temporary deployment of 13 broadband seismic stations from May 2010 to July 2011. We use the temporary array waveform data, along with data from permanent seismic stations and a new high‐resolution 3D velocity model, to illuminate the fine‐scale details of the seismicity distribution near Cholame and the relation to the distribution of LFEs. The depth of the boundary between earthquakes and LFE hypocenters changes along strike and roughly follows the 350°C isotherm, suggesting frictional behavior may be, in part, thermally controlled. We observe no overlap in the depth of earthquakes and LFEs, with an ∼5  km separation between the deepest earthquakes and shallowest LFEs. In addition, clustering in the relocated seismicity near the 2004 Mw 6.0 Parkfield earthquake hypocenter and near the northern boundary of the 1857 Mw 7.8 Fort Tejon rupture may highlight areas of frictional heterogeneities on the fault where earthquakes tend to nucleate.

A fault is born: The Landers-Mojave earthquake line

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nur, A.; Ron, H.

1993-04-01

The epicenter and the southern portion of the 1992 Landers earthquake fell on an approximately N-S earthquake line, defined by both epicentral locations and by the rupture directions of four previous M>5 earthquakes in the Mojave: The 1947 Manix; 1975 Galway Lake; 1979 Homestead Valley: and 1992 Joshua Tree events. Another M 5.2 earthquake epicenter in 1965 fell on this line where it intersects the Calico fault. In contrast, the northern part of the Landers rupture followed the NW-SE trending Camp Rock and parallel faults, exhibiting an apparently unusual rupture kink. The block tectonic model (Ron et al., 1984) combiningmore » fault kinematic and mechanics, explains both the alignment of the events, and their ruptures (Nur et al., 1986, 1989), as well as the Landers kink (Nur et al., 1992). Accordingly, the now NW oriented faults have rotated into their present direction away from the direction of maximum shortening, close to becoming locked, whereas a new fault set, optimally oriented relative to the direction of shortening, is developing to accommodate current crustal deformation. The Mojave-Landers line may thus be a new fault in formation. During the transition of faulting from the old, well developed and wak but poorly oriented faults to the strong, but favorably oriented new ones, both can slip simultaneously, giving rise to kinks such as Landers.« less

Geodetic Finite-Fault-based Earthquake Early Warning Performance for Great Earthquakes Worldwide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

2017-12-01

GNSS-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault-finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available datasets. The Geodetic Alarm System (G-larmS) is a GNSS-based finite-fault algorithm developed as part of the ShakeAlert EEW system in the western US. Performance evaluations using synthetic earthquakes offshore Cascadia showed that G-larmS satisfactorily recovers magnitude and fault length, providing useful alerts 30-40 s after origin time and timely warnings of ground motion for onshore urban areas. An end-to-end test of the ShakeAlert system demonstrated the need for GNSS data to accurately estimate ground motions in real-time. We replay real data from several subduction-zone earthquakes worldwide to demonstrate the value of GNSS-based EEW for the largest, most damaging events. We compare predicted ground acceleration (PGA) from first-alert-solutions with those recorded in major urban areas. In addition, where applicable, we compare observed tsunami heights to those predicted from the G-larmS solutions. We show that finite-fault inversion based on GNSS-data is essential to achieving the goals of EEW.

Rare normal faulting earthquake induced by subduction megaquake: example from 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishiyama, T.; Sugito, N.; Echigo, T.; Sato, H.; Suzuki, T.

2012-04-01

A month after March 11 gigantic M9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake, M7.0 intraplate earthquake occurred at a depth of 5 km on April 11 beneath coastal area of near Iwaki city, Fukushima prefecture. Focal mechanism of the mainshock indicates that this earthquake is a normal faulting event. Based on field reconnaissance and LIDAR mapping by Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, we recognized coseismic surface ruptures, presumably associated with the main shock. Coseismic surface ruptures extend NNW for about 11 km in a right-stepping en echelon manner. Geomorphic expressions of these ruptures commonly include WWS-facing normal fault scarps and/or drape fold scarp with open cracks on their crests, on the hanging wall sides of steeply west-dipping normal fault planes subparallel to Cretaceous metamorphic rocks. Highest topographic scarp height is about 2.3 m. In this study we introduce preliminary results of a trenching survey across the coseismic surface ruptures at Shionohira site, to resolve timing of paleoseismic events along the Shionohira fault. Trench excavations were carried out at two sites (Ichinokura and Shionohira sites) in Iwaki, Fukushima. At Shionohira site a 2-m-deep trench was excavated across the coseismic fault scarp emerged on the alluvial plain on the eastern flank of the Abukuma Mountains. On the trench walls we observed pairs of steeply dipping normal faults that deform Neogene to Paleogene conglomerates and unconformably overlying, late Quaternary to Holocene fluvial units. Sense of fault slip observed on the trench walls (large dip-slip with small sinistral component) is consistent with that estimated from coseismic surface ruptures. Fault throw estimated from separation of piercing points on lower Unit I and vertical structural relief on folded upper Unit I is consistent with topographic height of the coseismic fault scarp at the trench site. In contrast, vertical separation of Unit II, unconformably overlain by Unit I, is measured as about 1.5 m

The effect of segmented fault zones on earthquake rupture propagation and termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y.

2017-12-01

A fundamental question in earthquake source physics is what can control the nucleation and termination of an earthquake rupture. Besides stress heterogeneities and variations in frictional properties, damaged fault zones (DFZs) that surround major strike-slip faults can contribute significantly to earthquake rupture propagation. Previous earthquake rupture simulations usually characterize DFZs as several-hundred-meter-wide layers with lower seismic velocities than host rocks, and find earthquake ruptures in DFZs can exhibit slip pulses and oscillating rupture speeds that ultimately enhance high-frequency ground motions. However, real DFZs are more complex than the uniform low-velocity structures, and show along-strike variations of damages that may be correlated with historical earthquake ruptures. These segmented structures can either prohibit or assist rupture propagation and significantly affect the final sizes of earthquakes. For example, recent dense array data recorded at the San Jacinto fault zone suggests the existence of three prominent DFZs across the Anza seismic gap and the south section of the Clark branch, while no prominent DFZs were identified near the ends of the Anza seismic gap. To better understand earthquake rupture in segmented fault zones, we will present dynamic rupture simulations that calculate the time-varying rupture process physically by considering the interactions between fault stresses, fault frictional properties, and material heterogeneities. We will show that whether an earthquake rupture can break through the intact rock outside the DFZ depend on the nucleation size of the earthquake and the rupture propagation distance in the DFZ. Moreover, material properties of the DFZ, stress conditions along the fault, and friction properties of the fault also have a critical impact on rupture propagation and termination. We will also present scenarios of San Jacinto earthquake ruptures and show the parameter space that is favorable for

Using Earthquake Analysis to Expand the Oklahoma Fault Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, J. C.; Evans, S. C.; Walter, J. I.

2017-12-01

The Oklahoma Geological Survey (OGS) is compiling a comprehensive Oklahoma Fault Database (OFD), which includes faults mapped in OGS publications, university thesis maps, and industry-contributed shapefiles. The OFD includes nearly 20,000 fault segments, but the work is far from complete. The OGS plans on incorporating other sources of data into the OFD, such as new faults from earthquake sequence analyses, geologic field mapping, active-source seismic surveys, and potential fields modeling. A comparison of Oklahoma seismicity and the OFD reveals that earthquakes in the state appear to nucleate on mostly unmapped or unknown faults. Here, we present faults derived from earthquake sequence analyses. From 2015 to present, there has been a five-fold increase in realtime seismic stations in Oklahoma, which has greatly expanded and densified the state's seismic network. The current seismic network not only improves our threshold for locating weaker earthquakes, but also allows us to better constrain focal plane solutions (FPS) from first motion analyses. Using nodal planes from the FPS, HypoDD relocation, and historic seismic data, we can elucidate these previously unmapped seismogenic faults. As the OFD is a primary resource for various scientific investigations, the inclusion of seismogenic faults improves further derivative studies, particularly with respect to seismic hazards. Our primal focus is on four areas of interest, which have had M5+ earthquakes in recent Oklahoma history: Pawnee (M5.8), Prague (M5.7), Fairview (M5.1), and Cushing (M5.0). Subsequent areas of interest will include seismically active data-rich areas, such as the central and northcentral parts of the state.

Aftershocks of the 2014 South Napa, California, Earthquake: Complex faulting on secondary faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hardebeck, Jeanne L.; Shelly, David R.

2016-01-01

We investigate the aftershock sequence of the 2014 MW6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake. Low-magnitude aftershocks missing from the network catalog are detected by applying a matched-filter approach to continuous seismic data, with the catalog earthquakes serving as the waveform templates. We measure precise differential arrival times between events, which we use for double-difference event relocation in a 3D seismic velocity model. Most aftershocks are deeper than the mainshock slip, and most occur west of the mapped surface rupture. While the mainshock coseismic and postseismic slip appears to have occurred on the near-vertical, strike-slip West Napa fault, many of the aftershocks occur in a complex zone of secondary faulting. Earthquake locations in the main aftershock zone, near the mainshock hypocenter, delineate multiple dipping secondary faults. Composite focal mechanisms indicate strike-slip and oblique-reverse faulting on the secondary features. The secondary faults were moved towards failure by Coulomb stress changes from the mainshock slip. Clusters of aftershocks north and south of the main aftershock zone exhibit vertical strike-slip faulting more consistent with the West Napa Fault. The northern aftershocks correspond to the area of largest mainshock coseismic slip, while the main aftershock zone is adjacent to the fault area that has primarily slipped postseismically. Unlike most creeping faults, the zone of postseismic slip does not appear to contain embedded stick-slip patches that would have produced on-fault aftershocks. The lack of stick-slip patches along this portion of the fault may contribute to the low productivity of the South Napa aftershock sequence.

Earthquake geology of the Bulnay Fault (Mongolia)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizza, Magali; Ritz, Jean-Franciois; Prentice, Carol S.; Vassallo, Ricardo; Braucher, Regis; Larroque, Christophe; Arzhannikova, A.; Arzhanikov, S.; Mahan, Shannon; Massault, M.; Michelot, J-L.; Todbileg, M.

2015-01-01

The Bulnay earthquake of July 23, 1905 (Mw 8.3-8.5), in north-central Mongolia, is one of the world's largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes and one of four great earthquakes that occurred in the region during the 20th century. The 375-km-long surface rupture of the left-lateral, strike-slip, N095°E trending Bulnay Fault associated with this earthquake is remarkable for its pronounced expression across the landscape and for the size of features produced by previous earthquakes. Our field observations suggest that in many areas the width and geometry of the rupture zone is the result of repeated earthquakes; however, in those areas where it is possible to determine that the geomorphic features are the result of the 1905 surface rupture alone, the size of the features produced by this single earthquake are singular in comparison to most other historical strike-slip surface ruptures worldwide. Along the 80 km stretch, between 97.18°E and 98.33°E, the fault zone is characterized by several meters width and the mean left-lateral 1905 offset is 8.9 ± 0.6 m with two measured cumulative offsets that are twice the 1905 slip. These observations suggest that the displacement produced during the penultimate event was similar to the 1905 slip. Morphotectonic analyses carried out at three sites along the eastern part of the Bulnay fault, allow us to estimate a mean horizontal slip rate of 3.1 ± 1.7 mm/yr over the Late Pleistocene-Holocene period. In parallel, paleoseismological investigations show evidence for two earthquakes prior to the 1905 event with recurrence intervals of ~2700-4000 years.

The Mechanics of Transient Fault Slip and Slow Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marone, C.; Leeman, J.; Scuderi, M.; Saffer, D. M.; Collettini, C.

2015-12-01

Earthquakes are understood as frictional stick-slip instabilities in which stored elastic energy is released suddenly, driving catastrophic failure. In normal (fast) earthquakes the rupture zone expands at a rate dictated by elastic wave speeds, a few km/s, and fault slip rates reach 1-10 m/s. However, tectonic faults also fail in slow earthquakes with rupture durations of months and fault slip speeds of ~100 micron/s or less. We know very little about the mechanics of slow earthquakes. What determines the rupture propagation velocity in slow earthquakes and in other forms of quasi-dynamic rupture? What processes limit stress drop and fault slip speed in slow earthquakes? Existing lab studies provide some help via observations of complex forms of stick-slip, creep-slip, or, in a few cases, slow slip. However, these are mainly anecdotal and rarely include examples of repetitive slow slip or systematic measurements that could be used to isolate the underlying mechanisms. Numerical studies based on rate and state friction also shed light on transiently accelerating slip, showing that slow slip can occur if: 1) fault rheology involves a change in friction rate dependence (a-b) with velocity or unusually large values of the frictional weakening distance Dc, or 2) fault zone elastic stiffness equals the critical frictional weakening rate kc = (b-a)/Dc. Recent laboratory work shows that the latter can occur much more commonly that previously thought. We document the complete spectrum of stick-slip behaviors from transient slow slip to fast stick-slip for a narrow range of conditions around k/kc = 1.0. Slow slip occurs near the threshold between stable and unstable failure, controlled by the interplay of fault zone frictional properties, normal stress, and elastic stiffness of the surrounding rock. Our results provide a generic mechanism for slow earthquakes, consistent with the wide range of conditions for which slow slip has been observed.

Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate-and state-dependent strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dieterich, J.H.

1992-01-01

Dieterich, J.H., 1992. Earthquake nucleation on faults with rate- and state-dependent strength. In: T. Mikumo, K. Aki, M. Ohnaka, L.J. Ruff and P.K.P. Spudich (Editors), Earthquake Source Physics and Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics, 211: 115-134. Faults with rate- and state-dependent constitutive properties reproduce a range of observed fault slip phenomena including spontaneous nucleation of slip instabilities at stresses above some critical stress level and recovery of strength following slip instability. Calculations with a plane-strain fault model with spatially varying properties demonstrate that accelerating slip precedes instability and becomes localized to a fault patch. The dimensions of the fault patch follow scaling relations for the minimum critical length for unstable fault slip. The critical length is a function of normal stress, loading conditions and constitutive parameters which include Dc, the characteristic slip distance. If slip starts on a patch that exceeds the critical size, the length of the rapidly accelerating zone tends to shrink to the characteristic size as the time of instability approaches. Solutions have been obtained for a uniform, fixed-patch model that are in good agreement with results from the plane-strain model. Over a wide range of conditions, above the steady-state stress, the logarithm of the time to instability linearly decreases as the initial stress increases. Because nucleation patch length and premonitory displacement are proportional to Dc, the moment of premonitory slip scales by D3c. The scaling of Dc is currently an open question. Unless Dc for earthquake faults is significantly greater than that observed on laboratory faults, premonitory strain arising from the nucleation process for earthquakes may by too small to detect using current observation methods. Excluding the possibility that Dc in the nucleation zone controls the magnitude of the subsequent earthquake, then the source dimensions of the smallest

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Massonnet, D.; Thatcher, W.; Vadon, H.

1996-01-01

Stress changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone.

The 2002 Denali fault earthquake, Alaska: A large magnitude, slip-partitioned event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eberhart-Phillips, D.; Haeussler, Peter J.; Freymueller, J.T.; Frankel, A.D.; Rubin, C.M.; Craw, P.; Ratchkovski, N.A.; Anderson, G.; Carver, G.A.; Crone, A.J.; Dawson, T.E.; Fletcher, H.; Hansen, R.; Harp, E.L.; Harris, R.A.; Hill, D.P.; Hreinsdottir, S.; Jibson, R.W.; Jones, L.M.; Kayen, R.; Keefer, D.K.; Larsen, C.F.; Moran, S.C.; Personius, S.F.; Plafker, G.; Sherrod, B.; Sieh, K.; Sitar, N.; Wallace, W.K.

2003-01-01

The MW (moment magnitude) 7.9 Denali fault earthquake on 3 November 2002 was associated with 340 kilometers of surface rupture and was the largest strike-slip earthquake in North America in almost 150 years. It illuminates earthquake mechanics and hazards of large strike-slip faults. It began with thrusting on the previously unrecognized Susitna Glacier fault, continued with right-slip on the Denali fault, then took a right step and continued with right-slip on the Totschunda fault. There is good correlation between geologically observed and geophysically inferred moment release. The earthquake produced unusually strong distal effects in the rupture propagation direction, including triggered seismicity.

Continuous permeability measurements record healing inside the Wenchuan earthquake fault zone.

PubMed

Xue, Lian; Li, Hai-Bing; Brodsky, Emily E; Xu, Zhi-Qing; Kano, Yasuyuki; Wang, Huan; Mori, James J; Si, Jia-Liang; Pei, Jun-Ling; Zhang, Wei; Yang, Guang; Sun, Zhi-Ming; Huang, Yao

2013-06-28

Permeability controls fluid flow in fault zones and is a proxy for rock damage after an earthquake. We used the tidal response of water level in a deep borehole to track permeability for 18 months in the damage zone of the causative fault of the 2008 moment magnitude 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. The unusually high measured hydraulic diffusivity of 2.4 × 10(-2) square meters per second implies a major role for water circulation in the fault zone. For most of the observation period, the permeability decreased rapidly as the fault healed. The trend was interrupted by abrupt permeability increases attributable to shaking from remote earthquakes. These direct measurements of the fault zone reveal a process of punctuated recovery as healing and damage interact in the aftermath of a major earthquake.

Width of surface rupture zone for thrust earthquakes: implications for earthquake fault zoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncio, Paolo; Liberi, Francesca; Caldarella, Martina; Nurminen, Fiia-Charlotta

2018-01-01

The criteria for zoning the surface fault rupture hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults are defined by analysing the characteristics of the areas of coseismic surface faulting in thrust earthquakes. Normal and strike-slip faults have been deeply studied by other authors concerning the SFRH, while thrust faults have not been studied with comparable attention. Surface faulting data were compiled for 11 well-studied historic thrust earthquakes occurred globally (5.4 ≤ M ≤ 7.9). Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the analysed earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials (simple and hanging wall collapse scarps, pressure ridges, fold scarps and thrust or pressure ridges with bending-moment or flexural-slip fault ruptures due to large-scale folding). For all the earthquakes, the distance of distributed ruptures from the principal fault rupture (r) and the width of the rupture zone (WRZ) were compiled directly from the literature or measured systematically in GIS-georeferenced published maps. Overall, surface ruptures can occur up to large distances from the main fault ( ˜ 2150 m on the footwall and ˜ 3100 m on the hanging wall). Most of the ruptures occur on the hanging wall, preferentially in the vicinity of the principal fault trace ( > ˜ 50 % at distances < ˜ 250 m). The widest WRZ are recorded where sympathetic slip (Sy) on distant faults occurs, and/or where bending-moment (B-M) or flexural-slip (F-S) fault ruptures, associated with large-scale folds (hundreds of metres to kilometres in wavelength), are present. A positive relation between the earthquake magnitude and the total WRZ is evident, while a clear correlation between the vertical displacement on the principal fault and the total WRZ is not found. The distribution of surface ruptures is fitted with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g. 90 % probability of the cumulative distribution

Fault healing and earthquake spectra from stick slip sequences in the laboratory and on active faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaskey, G. C.; Glaser, S. D.; Thomas, A.; Burgmann, R.

2011-12-01

Repeating earthquake sequences (RES) are thought to occur on isolated patches of a fault that fail in repeated stick-slip fashion. RES enable researchers to study the effect of variations in earthquake recurrence time and the relationship between fault healing and earthquake generation. Fault healing is thought to be the physical process responsible for the 'state' variable in widely used rate- and state-dependent friction equations. We analyze RES created in laboratory stick slip experiments on a direct shear apparatus instrumented with an array of very high frequency (1KHz - 1MHz) displacement sensors. Tests are conducted on the model material polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA). While frictional properties of this glassy polymer can be characterized with the rate- and state- dependent friction laws, the rate of healing in PMMA is higher than room temperature rock. Our experiments show that in addition to a modest increase in fault strength and stress drop with increasing healing time, there are distinct spectral changes in the recorded laboratory earthquakes. Using the impact of a tiny sphere on the surface of the test specimen as a known source calibration function, we are able to remove the instrument and apparatus response from recorded signals so that the source spectrum of the laboratory earthquakes can be accurately estimated. The rupture of a fault that was allowed to heal produces a laboratory earthquake with increased high frequency content compared to one produced by a fault which has had less time to heal. These laboratory results are supported by observations of RES on the Calaveras and San Andreas faults, which show similar spectral changes when recurrence time is perturbed by a nearby large earthquake. Healing is typically attributed to a creep-like relaxation of the material which causes the true area of contact of interacting asperity populations to increase with time in a quasi-logarithmic way. The increase in high frequency seismicity shown here

Near-fault peak ground velocity from earthquake and laboratory data

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2007-01-01

We test the hypothesis that peak ground velocity (PGV) has an upper bound independent of earthquake magnitude and that this bound is controlled primarily by the strength of the seismogenic crust. The highest PGVs, ranging up to several meters per second, have been measured at sites within a few kilometers of the causative faults. Because the database for near-fault PGV is small, we use earthquake slip models, laboratory experiments, and evidence from a mining-induced earthquake to investigate the factors influencing near-fault PGV and the nature of its scaling. For each earthquake slip model we have calculated the peak slip rates for all subfaults and then chosen the maximum of these rates as an estimate of twice the largest near-fault PGV. Nine slip models for eight earthquakes, with magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 7.6, yielded maximum peak slip rates ranging from 2.3 to 12 m/sec with a median of 5.9 m/sec. By making several adjustments, PGVs for small earthquakes can be simulated from peak slip rates measured during laboratory stick-slip experiments. First, we adjust the PGV for differences in the state of stress (i.e., the difference between the laboratory loading stresses and those appropriate for faults at seismogenic depths). To do this, we multiply both the slip and the peak slip rate by the ratio of the effective normal stresses acting on fault planes measured at 6.8 km depth at the KTB site, Germany (deepest available in situ stress measurements), to those acting on the laboratory faults. We also adjust the seismic moment by replacing the laboratory fault with a buried circular shear crack whose radius is chosen to match the experimental unloading stiffness. An additional, less important adjustment is needed for experiments run in triaxial loading conditions. With these adjustments, peak slip rates for 10 stick-slip events, with scaled moment magnitudes from -2.9 to 1.0, range from 3.3 to 10.3 m/sec, with a median of 5.4 m/sec. Both the earthquake and

Earthquakes and faults in southern California (1970-2010)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.3 in southern California (1970–2010). The bathymetry was generated from digital files from the California Department of Fish And Game, Marine Region, Coastal Bathymetry Project. Elevation data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from fourteen Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper scenes collected between 2009 and 2010. Fault data are reproduced with permission from 2006 California Geological Survey and U.S. Geological Survey data. The earthquake data are from the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center.

Fault Structural Control on Earthquake Strong Ground Motions: The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake as an Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yan; Zhang, Dongli; Li, Xiaojun; Huang, Bei; Zheng, Wenjun; Wang, Yuejun

2018-02-01

Continental thrust faulting earthquakes pose severe threats to megacities across the world. Recent events show the possible control of fault structures on strong ground motions. The seismogenic structure of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with high-angle listric reverse fault zones. Its peak ground accelerations (PGAs) show a prominent feature of fault zone amplification: the values within the 30- to 40-km-wide fault zone block are significantly larger than those on both the hanging wall and the footwall. The PGA values attenuate asymmetrically: they decay much more rapidly in the footwall than in the hanging wall. The hanging wall effects can be seen on both the vertical and horizontal components of the PGAs, with the former significantly more prominent than the latter. All these characteristics can be adequately interpreted by upward extrusion of the high-angle listric reverse fault zone block. Through comparison with a low-angle planar thrust fault associated with the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, we conclude that different fault structures might have controlled different patterns of strong ground motion, which should be taken into account in seismic design and construction.

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24h post mainshock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014M=6.0 West Napa earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

2014-01-01

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M= 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

Stress-based aftershock forecasts made within 24 h postmain shock: Expected north San Francisco Bay area seismicity changes after the 2014 M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Tom; Segou, Margaret; Sevilgen, Volkan; Milner, Kevin; Field, Edward; Toda, Shinji; Stein, Ross S.

2014-12-01

We calculate stress changes resulting from the M = 6.0 West Napa earthquake on north San Francisco Bay area faults. The earthquake ruptured within a series of long faults that pose significant hazard to the Bay area, and we are thus concerned with potential increases in the probability of a large earthquake through stress transfer. We conduct this exercise as a prospective test because the skill of stress-based aftershock forecasting methodology is inconclusive. We apply three methods: (1) generalized mapping of regional Coulomb stress change, (2) stress changes resolved on Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast faults, and (3) a mapped rate/state aftershock forecast. All calculations were completed within 24 h after the main shock and were made without benefit of known aftershocks, which will be used to evaluative the prospective forecast. All methods suggest that we should expect heightened seismicity on parts of the southern Rodgers Creek, northern Hayward, and Green Valley faults.

New insights into seismic faulting during the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H.; Wang, H.; Si, J.; Sun, Z.; Pei, J.; Lei, Z.; He, X.

2017-12-01

The WFSD project was implemented promptly after the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. A series of research results on the seismogenic structure, fault deformation, sliding mechanism and fault healing have been obtained, which provide new insights into seismic faulting and mechanisms of the Wenchuan earthquake. The WFSD-1 and -2 drilling core profiles reveal that the Longmen Shan thrust belt is composed of multiple thrust sheets. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake took place in such tectonic setting with strong horizontal shortening. The two ruptured faults have different deformation mechanisms. The Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF) is a stick-slip fault characterized by fault gouge with high magnetic susceptibility, Guanxian-Anxian fault (GAF) with creeping features and characterized by fault gouge with low magnetic susceptibility. Two PSZs were found in WFSD-1 and -2 cores in the southern segment of YBF. The upper PSZ1 is a low-angle thrust fault characterized by coseisimc graphitization with an extremely low frictional coefficient. The lower PSZ2 is an oblique dextral-slip thrust fault characterized by frictional melt lubrication. In the northern segment of YBF, the PSZ in WFSD-4S cores shows a high-angle thrust feature with fresh melt as well. Therefore, the oblique dextral-slip thrust faulting with frictional melt lubrication is the main faulting of Wenchuan earthquake. Fresh melt with quenching texture was formed in Wenchuan earthquake implying vigorous fluid circulation occurred during the earthquake, which quenched high-temperature melt, hamper the aftermost fault slip and welding seismic fault. Therefore, fluids in the fault zone not only promotes fault weakening, but also suppress slipping in theWenchuan earthquake. The YBF has an extremely high hydraulic diffusivity (2.4×10-2 m2s-1), implying a vigorous fluid circulation in the Wenchuan fault zone. the permeability of YBF has reduced 70% after the shock, reflecting a rapid healing for the YBF. However, the water

Repeating Marmara Sea earthquakes: indication for fault creep

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohnhoff, Marco; Wollin, Christopher; Domigall, Dorina; Küperkoch, Ludger; Martínez-Garzón, Patricia; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Dresen, Georg; Malin, Peter E.

2017-07-01

Discriminating between a creeping and a locked status of active faults is of central relevance to characterize potential rupture scenarios of future earthquakes and the associated seismic hazard for nearby population centres. In this respect, highly similar earthquakes that repeatedly activate the same patch of an active fault portion are an important diagnostic tool to identify and possibly even quantify the amount of fault creep. Here, we present a refined hypocentre catalogue for the Marmara region in northwestern Turkey, where a magnitude M up to 7.4 earthquake is expected in the near future. Based on waveform cross-correlation for selected spatial seismicity clusters, we identify two magnitude M ∼ 2.8 repeater pairs. These repeaters were identified as being indicative of fault creep based on the selection criteria applied to the waveforms. They are located below the western part of the Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault Zone and are the largest reported repeaters for the larger Marmara region. While the eastern portion of the Marmara seismic gap has been identified to be locked, only sparse information on the deformation status has been reported for its western part. Our findings indicate that the western Marmara section deforms aseismically to a substantial extent, which reduces the probability for this region to host a nucleation point for the pending Marmara earthquake. This is of relevance, since a nucleation of the Marmara event in the west and subsequent eastward rupture propagation towards the Istanbul metropolitan region would result in a substantially higher seismic hazard and resulting risk than if the earthquake would nucleate in the east and thus propagate westward away from the population centre Istanbul.

Influence of fault steps on rupture termination of strike-slip earthquake faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Zhengfang; Zhou, Bengang

2018-03-01

A statistical analysis was completed on the rupture data of 29 historical strike-slip earthquakes across the world. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of fault steps on the rupture termination of these events. The results show good correlations between the type and length of steps with the seismic rupture and a poor correlation between the step number and seismic rupture. For different magnitude intervals, the smallest widths of the fault steps (Lt) that can terminate the rupture propagation are variable: Lt = 3 km for Ms 6.5 6.9, Lt = 4 km for Ms 7.0 7.5, Lt = 6 km for Ms 7.5 8.0, and Lt = 8 km for Ms 8.0 8.5. The dilational fault step is easier to rupture through than the compression fault step. The smallest widths of the fault step for the rupture arrest can be used as an indicator to judge the scale of the rupture termination of seismic faults. This is helpful for research on fault segmentation, as well as estimating the magnitude of potential earthquakes, and is thus of significance for the assessment of seismic risks.

Reading a 400,000-year record of earthquake frequency for an intraplate fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Randolph T.; Goodwin, Laurel B.; Sharp, Warren D.; Mozley, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Our understanding of the frequency of large earthquakes at timescales longer than instrumental and historical records is based mostly on paleoseismic studies of fast-moving plate-boundary faults. Similar study of intraplate faults has been limited until now, because intraplate earthquake recurrence intervals are generally long (10s to 100s of thousands of years) relative to conventional paleoseismic records determined by trenching. Long-term variations in the earthquake recurrence intervals of intraplate faults therefore are poorly understood. Longer paleoseismic records for intraplate faults are required both to better quantify their earthquake recurrence intervals and to test competing models of earthquake frequency (e.g., time-dependent, time-independent, and clustered). We present the results of U-Th dating of calcite veins in the Loma Blanca normal fault zone, Rio Grande rift, New Mexico, United States, that constrain earthquake recurrence intervals over much of the past ˜550 ka—the longest direct record of seismic frequency documented for any fault to date. The 13 distinct seismic events delineated by this effort demonstrate that for >400 ka, the Loma Blanca fault produced periodic large earthquakes, consistent with a time-dependent model of earthquake recurrence. However, this time-dependent series was interrupted by a cluster of earthquakes at ˜430 ka. The carbon isotope composition of calcite formed during this seismic cluster records rapid degassing of CO2, suggesting an interval of anomalous fluid source. In concert with U-Th dates recording decreased recurrence intervals, we infer seismicity during this interval records fault-valve behavior. These data provide insight into the long-term seismic behavior of the Loma Blanca fault and, by inference, other intraplate faults.

Earthquake Prediction in Large-scale Faulting Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junger, J.; Kilgore, B.; Beeler, N.; Dieterich, J.

2004-12-01

We study repeated earthquake slip of a 2 m long laboratory granite fault surface with approximately homogenous frictional properties. In this apparatus earthquakes follow a period of controlled, constant rate shear stress increase, analogous to tectonic loading. Slip initiates and accumulates within a limited area of the fault surface while the surrounding fault remains locked. Dynamic rupture propagation and slip of the entire fault surface is induced when slip in the nucleating zone becomes sufficiently large. We report on the event to event reproducibility of loading time (recurrence interval), failure stress, stress drop, and precursory activity. We tentatively interpret these variations as indications of the intrinsic variability of small earthquake occurrence and source physics in this controlled setting. We use the results to produce measures of earthquake predictability based on the probability density of repeating occurrence and the reproducibility of near-field precursory strain. At 4 MPa normal stress and a loading rate of 0.0001 MPa/s, the loading time is ˜25 min, with a coefficient of variation of around 10%. Static stress drop has a similar variability which results almost entirely from variability of the final (rather than initial) stress. Thus, the initial stress has low variability and event times are slip-predictable. The variability of loading time to failure is comparable to the lowest variability of recurrence time of small repeating earthquakes at Parkfield (Nadeau et al., 1998) and our result may be a good estimate of the intrinsic variability of recurrence. Distributions of loading time can be adequately represented by a log-normal or Weibel distribution but long term prediction of the next event time based on probabilistic representation of previous occurrence is not dramatically better than for field-observed small- or large-magnitude earthquake datasets. The gradually accelerating precursory aseismic slip observed in the region of

Use of microearthquakes in the study of the mechanics of earthquake generation along the San Andreas fault in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, J.P.; Lee, W.H.K.; Pakiser, L.C.

1970-01-01

A small, dense network of independently recording portable seismograph stations was used to delineate the slip surface associated with the 1966 Parkfield-Cholame earthquake by precise three dimensional mapping of the hypocenters of its aftershocks. The aftershocks were concentrated in a very narrow vertical zone beneath or immediately adjacent to the zone of surf ace fracturing that accompanied the main shock. Focal depths ranged from less than 1 km to a maximum of 15 km. The same type of portable network was used to study microearthquakes associated with an actively creeping section of the San Andreas fault south of Hollister during the summer of 1967. Microearthquake activity during the 6-week operation of this network was dominated by aftershocks of a magnitude-4 earthquake that occurred within the network near Bear Valley on July 23. Most of the aftershocks were concentrated in an equidimensional region about 2 1 2km across that contained the hypocenter of the main shock. The zone of the concentrated aftershocks was centered near the middle of the rift zone at a depth of about 3 1 2km. Hypocenters of other aftershocks outlined a 25 km long zone of activity beneath the actively creeping strand of the fault and extending from the surface to a depth of about 13 km. A continuing study of microearthquakes along the San Andreas, Hayward, and Calaveras faults between Hollister and San Francisco has been under way for about 2 years. The permanent telemetered network constructed for this purpose has grown from about 30 stations in early 1968 to about 45 stations in late 1969. Microearthquakes between Hollister and San Francisco are heavily concentrated in narrow, nearly vertical zones along sections of the Sargent, San Andreas, and Calaveras faults. Focal depths range from less than 1 km to about 14 km. ?? 1970.

Detection of postseismic fault-zone collapse following the Landers earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, Didier; Thatcher, Wayne; Vadon, Hélèna

1996-08-01

STRESS changes caused by fault movement in an earthquake induce transient aseismic crustal movements in the earthquake source region that continue for months to decades following large events1-4. These motions reflect aseismic adjustments of the fault zone and/or bulk deformation of the surroundings in response to applied stresses2,5-7, and supply information regarding the inelastic behaviour of the Earth's crust. These processes are imperfectly understood because it is difficult to infer what occurs at depth using only surface measurements2, which are in general poorly sampled. Here we push satellite radar interferometry to near its typical artefact level, to obtain a map of the postseismic deformation field in the three years following the 28 June 1992 Landers, California earthquake. From the map, we deduce two distinct types of deformation: afterslip at depth on the fault that ruptured in the earthquake, and shortening normal to the fault zone. The latter movement may reflect the closure of dilatant cracks and fluid expulsion from a transiently over-pressured fault zone6-8.

Fault Rupture Model of the 2016 Gyeongju, South Korea, Earthquake and Its Implication for the Underground Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchide, Takahiko; Song, Seok Goo

2018-03-01

The 2016 Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) was the largest instrumentally recorded inland event in South Korea. It occurred in the southeast of the Korean Peninsula and was preceded by a large ML 5.1 foreshock. The aftershock seismicity data indicate that these earthquakes occurred on two closely collocated parallel faults that are oblique to the surface trace of the Yangsan fault. We investigate the rupture properties of these earthquakes using finite-fault slip inversion analyses. The obtained models indicate that the ruptures propagated NNE-ward and SSW-ward for the main shock and the large foreshock, respectively. This indicates that these earthquakes occurred on right-step faults and were initiated around a fault jog. The stress drops were up to 62 and 43 MPa for the main shock and the largest foreshock, respectively. These high stress drops imply high strength excess, which may be overcome by the stress concentration around the fault jog.

Surface faulting along the Superstition Hills fault zone and nearby faults associated with the earthquakes of 24 November 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sharp, R.V.

1989-01-01

The M6.2 Elmore Desert Ranch earthquake of 24 November 1987 was associated spatially and probably temporally with left-lateral surface rupture on many northeast-trending faults in and near the Superstition Hills in western Imperial Valley. Three curving discontinuous principal zones of rupture among these breaks extended northeastward from near the Superstition Hills fault zone as far as 9km; the maximum observed surface slip, 12.5cm, was on the northern of the three, the Elmore Ranch fault, at a point near the epicenter. Twelve hours after the Elmore Ranch earthquake, the M6.6 Superstition Hills earthquake occurred near the northwest end of the right-lateral Superstition Hills fault zone. We measured displacements over 339 days at as many as 296 sites along the Superstition Hills fault zone, and repeated measurements at 49 sites provided sufficient data to fit with a simple power law. The overall distributions of right-lateral displacement at 1 day and the estimated final slip are nearly symmetrical about the midpoint of the surface rupture. The average estimated final right-lateral slip for the Superstition Hills fault zone is ~54cm. The average left-lateral slip for the conjugate faults trending northeastward is ~23cm. The southernmost ruptured member of the Superstition Hills fault zone, newly named the Wienert fault, extends the known length of the zone by about 4km. -from Authors

Normal Fault Type Earthquakes Off Fukushima Region - Comparison of the 1938 Events and Recent Earthquakes -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murotani, S.; Satake, K.

2017-12-01

Off Fukushima region, Mjma 7.4 (event A) and 6.9 (event B) events occurred on November 6, 1938, following the thrust fault type earthquakes of Mjma 7.5 and 7.3 on the previous day. These earthquakes were estimated as normal fault earthquakes by Abe (1977, Tectonophysics). An Mjma 7.0 earthquake occurred on July 12, 2014 near event B and an Mjma 7.4 earthquake occurred on November 22, 2016 near event A. These recent events are the only M 7 class earthquakes occurred off Fukushima since 1938. Except for the two 1938 events, normal fault earthquakes have not occurred until many aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. We compared the observed tsunami and seismic waveforms of the 1938, 2014, and 2016 earthquakes to examine the normal fault earthquakes occurred off Fukushima region. It is difficult to compare the tsunami waveforms of the 1938, 2014 and 2016 events because there were only a few observations at the same station. The teleseismic body wave inversion of the 2016 earthquake yielded with the focal mechanism of strike 42°, dip 35°, and rake -94°. Other source parameters were as follows: source area 70 km x 40 km, average slip 0.2 m, maximum slip 1.2 m, seismic moment 2.2 x 1019 Nm, and Mw 6.8. A large slip area is located near the hypocenter, and it is compatible with the tsunami source area estimated from tsunami travel times. The 2016 tsunami source area is smaller than that of the 1938 event, consistent with the difference in Mw: 7.7 for event A estimated by Abe (1977) and 6.8 for the 2016 event. Although the 2014 epicenter is very close to that of event B, the teleseismic waveforms of the 2014 event are similar to those of event A and the 2016 event. While Abe (1977) assumed that the mechanism of event B was the same as event A, the initial motions at some stations are opposite, indicating that the focal mechanisms of events A and B are different and more detailed examination is needed. The normal fault type earthquake seems to occur following the

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christophersen, Annemarie; Litchfield, Nicola; Berryman, Kelvin; Thomas, Richard; Basili, Roberto; Wallace, Laura; Ries, William; Hayes, Gavin P.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Yoshioka, Toshikazu; Koehler, Richard D.; Clark, Dan; Wolfson-Schwehr, Monica; Boettcher, Margaret S.; Villamor, Pilar; Horspool, Nick; Ornthammarath, Teraphan; Zuñiga, Ramon; Langridge, Robert M.; Stirling, Mark W.; Goded, Tatiana; Costa, Carlos; Yeats, Robert

2015-01-01

The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault observations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.

Deformation of the 2002 Denali Fault earthquakes, mapped by Radarsat-1 interferometry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lu, Zhong; Wright, Tim; Wicks, Chuck

2003-01-01

The magnitude 7.9 earthquake that struck central Alaska on 3 November 2002 was the largest strike-slip earthquake in North America for more than 150 years. The earthquake ruptured about 340 km of the Denali Fault system with observed right-lateral offsets of up to 9 m [Eberhart-Phillips et al., 2003] (Figure l). The rupture initiated with slip on a previously unknown thrust fault, the 40-km-long Susitna Glacier Fault. The rupture propagated eastward for about 220 km along the right-lateral Denali Fault where right-lateral slip averaged ˜5 m, before stepping southeastward onto the Totschunda Fault for about 70 km, with offsets as large as 2 m. The 3 November earthquake was preceded by a magnitude 6.7 shock on 23 October—the Nenana Mountain Earthquake—which was located about 25 km to the west of the 3 November earthquake.

Fluid-rock interaction during a large earthquake recorded in fault gouge: A case study of the Nojima fault, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, D.; Lin, A.

2016-12-01

Distinguishing the seismic ruptures during the earthquake from a lot of fractures in borehole core is very important to understand rupture processes and seismic efficiency. In particular, a great earthquake like the 1995 Mw 7.2 Kobe earthquake, but again, evidence has been limited to the grain size analysis and the color of fault gouge. In the past two decades, increasing geological evidence has emerged that seismic faults and shear zones within the middle to upper crust play a crucial role in controlling the architectures of crustal fluid migration. Rock-fluid interactions along seismogenic faults give us a chance to find the seismic ruptures from the same event. Recently, a new project of "Drilling into Fault Damage Zone" has being conducted by Kyoto University on the Nojima Fault again after 20 years of the 1995 Kobe earthquake for an integrated multidisciplinary study on the assessment of activity of active faults involving active tectonics, geochemistry and geochronology of active fault zones. In this work, we report on the signature of slip plane inside the Nojima Fault associated with individual earthquakes on the basis of trace element and isotope analyses. Trace element concentrations and 87Sr/86Sr ratios of fault gouge and host rocks were determined by an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) and thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS). Samples were collected from two trenches and an outcrop of Nojima Fault which. Based on the geochemical result, we interpret these geochemical results in terms of fluid-rock interactions recorded in fault friction during earthquake. The trace-element enrichment pattern of the slip plane can be explained by fluid-rock interactions at high temperature. It also can help us find the main coseismic fault slipping plane inside the thick fault gouge zone.

Evaluation of Earthquake-Induced Effects on Neighbouring Faults and Volcanoes: Application to the 2016 Pedernales Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bejar, M.; Alvarez Gomez, J. A.; Staller, A.; Luna, M. P.; Perez Lopez, R.; Monserrat, O.; Chunga, K.; Herrera, G.; Jordá, L.; Lima, A.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.

2017-12-01

It has long been recognized that earthquakes change the stress in the upper crust around the fault rupture and can influence the short-term behaviour of neighbouring faults and volcanoes. Rapid estimates of these stress changes can provide the authorities managing the post-disaster situation with a useful tool to identify and monitor potential threads and to update the estimates of seismic and volcanic hazard in a region. Space geodesy is now routinely used following an earthquake to image the displacement of the ground and estimate the rupture geometry and the distribution of slip. Using the obtained source model, it is possible to evaluate the remaining moment deficit and to infer the stress changes on nearby faults and volcanoes produced by the earthquake, which can be used to identify which faults and volcanoes are brought closer to failure or activation. Although these procedures are commonly used today, the transference of these results to the authorities managing the post-disaster situation is not straightforward and thus its usefulness is reduced in practice. Here we propose a methodology to evaluate the potential influence of an earthquake on nearby faults and volcanoes and create easy-to-understand maps for decision-making support after an earthquake. We apply this methodology to the Mw 7.8, 2016 Ecuador earthquake. Using Sentinel-1 SAR and continuous GPS data, we measure the coseismic ground deformation and estimate the distribution of slip. Then we use this model to evaluate the moment deficit on the subduction interface and changes of stress on the surrounding faults and volcanoes. The results are compared with the seismic and volcanic events that have occurred after the earthquake. We discuss potential and limits of the methodology and the lessons learnt from discussion with local authorities.

Association of earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area using Bayesian inference

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Bakun, W.H.; Perkins, D.M.

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference provides a method to use seismic intensity data or instrumental locations, together with geologic and seismologic data, to make quantitative estimates of the probabilities that specific past earthquakes are associated with specific faults. Probability density functions are constructed for the location of each earthquake, and these are combined with prior probabilities through Bayes' theorem to estimate the probability that an earthquake is associated with a specific fault. Results using this method are presented here for large, preinstrumental, historical earthquakes and for recent earthquakes with instrumental locations in the San Francisco Bay region. The probabilities for individual earthquakes can be summed to construct a probabilistic frequency-magnitude relationship for a fault segment. Other applications of the technique include the estimation of the probability of background earthquakes, that is, earthquakes not associated with known or considered faults, and the estimation of the fraction of the total seismic moment associated with earthquakes less than the characteristic magnitude. Results for the San Francisco Bay region suggest that potentially damaging earthquakes with magnitudes less than the characteristic magnitudes should be expected. Comparisons of earthquake locations and the surface traces of active faults as determined from geologic data show significant disparities, indicating that a complete understanding of the relationship between earthquakes and faults remains elusive.

Effects of Strike-Slip Fault Segmentation on Earthquake Energy and Seismic Hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madden, E. H.; Cooke, M. L.; Savage, H. M.; McBeck, J.

2014-12-01

Many major strike-slip faults are segmented along strike, including those along plate boundaries in California and Turkey. Failure of distinct fault segments at depth may be the source of multiple pulses of seismic radiation observed for single earthquakes. However, how and when segmentation affects fault behavior and energy release is the basis of many outstanding questions related to the physics of faulting and seismic hazard. These include the probability for a single earthquake to rupture multiple fault segments and the effects of segmentation on earthquake magnitude, radiated seismic energy, and ground motions. Using numerical models, we quantify components of the earthquake energy budget, including the tectonic work acting externally on the system, the energy of internal rock strain, the energy required to overcome fault strength and initiate slip, the energy required to overcome frictional resistance during slip, and the radiated seismic energy. We compare the energy budgets of systems of two en echelon fault segments with various spacing that include both releasing and restraining steps. First, we allow the fault segments to fail simultaneously and capture the effects of segmentation geometry on the earthquake energy budget and on the efficiency with which applied displacement is accommodated. Assuming that higher efficiency correlates with higher probability for a single, larger earthquake, this approach has utility for assessing the seismic hazard of segmented faults. Second, we nucleate slip along a weak portion of one fault segment and let the quasi-static rupture propagate across the system. Allowing fractures to form near faults in these models shows that damage develops within releasing steps and promotes slip along the second fault, while damage develops outside of restraining steps and can prohibit slip along the second fault. Work is consumed in both the propagation of and frictional slip along these new fractures, impacting the energy available

Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Borcherdt, R.D.

1987-01-01

High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake (ML = 6.7, ?? = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake (ML = 5.5, ?? = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (ML = 6.1, ?? = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake (ML = 5.8, ?? = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake (ML = 7.0, ?? = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10-8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10-10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10-9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure. ?? 1987.

Upper crustal fault reactivation and the potential of triggered earthquakes on the Atacama Fault System, N-Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Victor, Pia; Ewiak, Oktawian; Thomas, Ziegenhagen; Monika, Sobiesiak; Bernd, Schurr; Gabriel, Gonzalez; Onno, Oncken

2016-04-01

The Atacama Fault System (AFS) is an active trench-parallel fault system, located in the forearc of N-Chile directly above the subduction zone interface. Due to its well-exposed position in the hyper arid forearc of N-Chile it is the perfect target to investigate the interaction between the deformation cycle in the overriding forearc and the subduction zone seismic cycle of the underlying megathrust. Although the AFS and large parts of the upper crust are devoid of any noteworthy seismicity, at least three M=7 earthquakes in the past 10 ky have been documented in the paleoseismological record, demonstrating the potential of large events in the future. We apply a two-fold approach to explore fault activation and reactivation patterns through time and to investigate the triggering potential of upper crustal faults. 1) A new methodology using high-resolution topographic data allows us to investigate the number of past earthquakes for any given segment of the fault system as well as the amount of vertical displacement of the last increment. This provides us with a detailed dataset of past earthquake rupture of upper plate faults which is potentially linked to large subduction zone earthquakes. 2) The IPOC Creepmeter array (http://www.ipoc-network.org/index.php/observatory/creepmeter.html) provides us with high-resolution time series of fault displacement accumulation for 11 stations along the 4 most active branches of the AFS. This array monitors the displacement across the fault with 2 samples/min with a resolution of 1μm. Collocated seismometers record the seismicity at two of the creepmeters, whereas the regional seismicity is provided by the IPOC Seismological Networks. Continuous time series of the creepmeter stations since 2009 show that the shallow segments of the fault do not creep permanently. Instead the accumulation of permanent deformation occurs by triggered slip caused by local or remote earthquakes. The 2014 Mw=8.2 Pisagua Earthquake, located close to

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Earthquake Stress Drop on Gofar Transform Fault, East Pacific Rise: Implications for Fault Strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyer, P. A.; Boettcher, M. S.; McGuire, J. J.; Collins, J. A.

2017-12-01

During the last five seismic cycles on Gofar transform fault on the East Pacific Rise, the largest earthquakes (6.0 ≤ Mw ≤ 6.2) have repeatedly ruptured the same fault segment (rupture asperity), while intervening fault segments host swarms of microearthquakes. Previous studies on Gofar have shown that these segments of low (≤10%) seismic coupling contain diffuse zones of seismicity and P-wave velocity reduction compared with the rupture asperity; suggesting heterogeneous fault properties control earthquake behavior. We investigate the role systematic differences in material properties have on earthquake rupture along Gofar using waveforms from ocean bottom seismometers that recorded the end of the 2008 Mw 6.0 seismic cycle.We determine stress drop for 117 earthquakes (2.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 4.2) that occurred in and between rupture asperities from corner frequency derived using an empirical Green's function spectral ratio method and seismic moment obtained by fitting the omega-square source model to the low frequency amplitude of earthquake spectra. We find stress drops from 0.03 to 2.7 MPa with significant spatial variation, including 2 times higher average stress drop in the rupture asperity compared to fault segments with low seismic coupling. We interpret an inverse correlation between stress drop and P-wave velocity reduction as the effect of damage on earthquake rupture. Earthquakes with higher stress drops occur in more intact crust of the rupture asperity, while earthquakes with lower stress drops occur in regions of low seismic coupling and reflect lower strength, highly fractured fault zone material. We also observe a temporal control on stress drop consistent with log-time healing following the Mw 6.0 mainshock, suggesting a decrease in stress drop as a result of fault zone damage caused by the large earthquake.

Distributing Earthquakes Among California's Faults: A Binary Integer Programming Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geist, E. L.; Parsons, T.

2016-12-01

Statement of the problem is simple: given regional seismicity specified by a Gutenber-Richter (G-R) relation, how are earthquakes distributed to match observed fault-slip rates? The objective is to determine the magnitude-frequency relation on individual faults. The California statewide G-R b-value and a-value are estimated from historical seismicity, with the a-value accounting for off-fault seismicity. UCERF3 consensus slip rates are used, based on geologic and geodetic data and include estimates of coupling coefficients. The binary integer programming (BIP) problem is set up such that each earthquake from a synthetic catalog spanning millennia can occur at any location along any fault. The decision vector, therefore, consists of binary variables, with values equal to one indicating the location of each earthquake that results in an optimal match of slip rates, in an L1-norm sense. Rupture area and slip associated with each earthquake are determined from a magnitude-area scaling relation. Uncertainty bounds on the UCERF3 slip rates provide explicit minimum and maximum constraints to the BIP model, with the former more important to feasibility of the problem. There is a maximum magnitude limit associated with each fault, based on fault length, providing an implicit constraint. Solution of integer programming problems with a large number of variables (>105 in this study) has been possible only since the late 1990s. In addition to the classic branch-and-bound technique used for these problems, several other algorithms have been recently developed, including pre-solving, sifting, cutting planes, heuristics, and parallelization. An optimal solution is obtained using a state-of-the-art BIP solver for M≥6 earthquakes and California's faults with slip-rates > 1 mm/yr. Preliminary results indicate a surprising diversity of on-fault magnitude-frequency relations throughout the state.

Continuous Record of Permeability inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Lian; Li, Haibing; Brodsky, Emily

2013-04-01

Faults are complex hydrogeological structures which include a highly permeable damage zone with fracture-dominated permeability. Since fractures are generated by earthquakes, we would expect that in the aftermath of a large earthquake, the permeability would be transiently high in a fault zone. Over time, the permeability may recover due to a combination of chemical and mechanical processes. However, the in situ fault zone hydrological properties are difficult to measure and have never been directly constrained on a fault zone immediately after a large earthquake. In this work, we use water level response to solid Earth tides to constrain the hydraulic properties inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone. The transmissivity and storage determine the phase and amplitude response of the water level to the tidal loading. By measuring phase and amplitude response, we can constrain the average hydraulic properties of the damage zone at 800-1200 m below the surface (~200-600 m from the principal slip zone). We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the phase and amplitude responses and the corresponding errors for the largest semidiurnal Earth tide M2 in the time domain. The average phase lag is ~ 30o, and the average amplitude response is 6×10-7 strain/m. Assuming an isotropic, homogenous and laterally extensive aquifer, the average storage coefficient S is 2×10-4 and the average transmissivity T is 6×10-7 m2 using the measured phase and the amplitude response. Calculation for the hydraulic diffusivity D with D=T/S, yields the reported value of D is 3×10-3 m2/s, which is two orders of magnitude larger than pump test values on the Chelungpu Fault which is the site of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. If the value is representative of the fault zone, then this means the hydrology processes should have an effect on the earthquake rupture process. This measurement is done through continuous monitoring and we could track the evolution for hydraulic properties

Earthquake epicenters and fault intersections in central and southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abdel-Gawad, M. (Principal Investigator); Silverstein, J.

1972-01-01

The author has identifed the following significant results. ERTS-1 imagery provided evidence for the existence of short transverse fault segments lodged between faults of the San Andreas system in the Coast Ranges, California. They indicate that an early episode of transverse shear has affected the Coast Ranges prior to the establishment of the present San Andreas fault. The fault has been offset by transverse faults of the Transverse Ranges. It appears feasible to identify from ERTS-1 imagery geomorphic criteria of recent fault movements. Plots of historic earthquakes in the Coast Ranges and western Transverse Ranges show clusters in areas where structures are complicated by interaction of tow active fault systems. A fault lineament apparently not previously mapped was identified in the Uinta Mountains, Utah. Part of the lineament show evidence of recent faulting which corresponds to a moderate earthquake cluster.

The history of late holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central segments of the Wasatch fault zone, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Personius, Stephen; Olig, Susan S; Crone, Anthony J.; Hylland, Michael D.; Lund, William R; Schwartz, David P.

2017-01-01

The Wasatch fault (WFZ)—Utah’s longest and most active normal fault—forms a prominent eastern boundary to the Basin and Range Province in northern Utah. To provide paleoseismic data for a Wasatch Front regional earthquake forecast, we synthesized paleoseismic data to define the timing and displacements of late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes on the central five segments of the WFZ. Our analysis yields revised histories of large (M ~7) surface-faulting earthquakes on the segments, as well as estimates of earthquake recurrence and vertical slip rate. We constrain the timing of four to six earthquakes on each of the central segments, which together yields a history of at least 24 surface-faulting earthquakes since ~6 ka. Using earthquake data for each segment, inter-event recurrence intervals range from about 0.6 to 2.5 kyr, and have a mean of 1.2 kyr. Mean recurrence, based on closed seismic intervals, is ~1.1–1.3 kyr per segment, and when combined with mean vertical displacements per segment of 1.7–2.6 m, yield mean vertical slip rates of 1.3–2.0 mm/yr per segment. These data refine the late Holocene behavior of the central WFZ; however, a significant source of uncertainty is whether structural complexities that define the segments of the WFZ act as hard barriers to ruptures propagating along the fault. Thus, we evaluate fault rupture models including both single-segment and multi-segment ruptures, and define 3–17-km-wide spatial uncertainties in the segment boundaries. These alternative rupture models and segment-boundary zones honor the WFZ paleoseismic data, take into account the spatial and temporal limitations of paleoseismic data, and allow for complex ruptures such as partial-segment and spillover ruptures. Our data and analyses improve our understanding of the complexities in normal-faulting earthquake behavior and provide geological inputs for regional earthquake-probability and seismic hazard assessments.

Ground-Truth On The CSUEB Campus: Results From Integrating Geophysical, Geological And Geospatial Methods And Fault Trench Studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abimbola, A.; Strayer, L. M.; McEvilly, A.

2015-12-01

A major (>M6) earthquake on the Hayward fault would be catastrophic, resulting in wide-ranging structural damage and potential loss of life. California State University, East Bay (CSUEB), in Hayward lies within the Hayward fault zone and is home to student residents. The campus is bound to the west by the Hayward and on the east by Chabot (CF) fault and is pervasively cut by anastomosing secondary splay faults. In June 2015 three exploratory trenches were opened on CSUEB campus to evaluate faulting within the proposed construction area of new student housing. Previous work by Dibblee found minor faulting in this area that we consider to be splays of the CF. We took the opportunity to conduct an active seismic survey, coincident with two of these three trenches. The purpose of our survey was to compare the results of these two methods, to further assess seismic hazard on campus, and to contribute to the ongoing effort to create a 3D model of the campus area. P-waves were generated by plate and 3.5kg sledgehammer, recorded on a 48-channel single component array for P-wave tomography and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW). Line 1 was 141m long with 3m receiver spacing and 9m shot spacing, and Line 2 was 188m long with 4m receivers spacing and 12m spacing. Initial P-wave tomography models show two velocity structures. To a depth of 25m, velocities ranged from 750-3000 m/s. At depths below 25m, we recorded P-wave velocities up to 6500 m/s, flanked by lower velocities, suggesting a bedrock unit bound by tectonically sheared material. Trench results indicate that faults and shears are indeed present in the top 2m. Additional near-surface seismic surveys are planned for the fall of 2015 to extend the trace of these faults, as they appear to cut across the entire campus. Furthermore, additional analysis of current and future seismic surveys will provide data on strong ground motion and offer insight into seismic hazards on the CSUEB campus. These new data will be

Effects of Fault Segmentation, Mechanical Interaction, and Structural Complexity on Earthquake-Generated Deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haddad, David Elias

Earth's topographic surface forms an interface across which the geodynamic and geomorphic engines interact. This interaction is best observed along crustal margins where topography is created by active faulting and sculpted by geomorphic processes. Crustal deformation manifests as earthquakes at centennial to millennial timescales. Given that nearly half of Earth's human population lives along active fault zones, a quantitative understanding of the mechanics of earthquakes and faulting is necessary to build accurate earthquake forecasts. My research relies on the quantitative documentation of the geomorphic expression of large earthquakes and the physical processes that control their spatiotemporal distributions. The first part of my research uses high-resolution topographic lidar data to quantitatively document the geomorphic expression of historic and prehistoric large earthquakes. Lidar data allow for enhanced visualization and reconstruction of structures and stratigraphy exposed by paleoseismic trenches. Lidar surveys of fault scarps formed by the 1992 Landers earthquake document the centimeter-scale erosional landforms developed by repeated winter storm-driven erosion. The second part of my research employs a quasi-static numerical earthquake simulator to explore the effects of fault roughness, friction, and structural complexities on earthquake-generated deformation. My experiments show that fault roughness plays a critical role in determining fault-to-fault rupture jumping probabilities. These results corroborate the accepted 3-5 km rupture jumping distance for smooth faults. However, my simulations show that the rupture jumping threshold distance is highly variable for rough faults due to heterogeneous elastic strain energies. Furthermore, fault roughness controls spatiotemporal variations in slip rates such that rough faults exhibit lower slip rates relative to their smooth counterparts. The central implication of these results lies in guiding the

Satellite Geodetic Constraints On Earthquake Processes: Implications of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes for Fault Mechanics and Seismic Hazards on the San Andreas Fault

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reilinger, Robert

2005-01-01

Our principal activities during the initial phase of this project include: 1) Continued monitoring of postseismic deformation for the 1999 Izmit and Duzce, Turkey earthquakes from repeated GPS survey measurements and expansion of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), 2) Establishing three North Anatolian fault crossing profiles (10 sitedprofile) at locations that experienced major surface-fault earthquakes at different times in the past to examine strain accumulation as a function of time in the earthquake cycle (2004), 3) Repeat observations of selected sites in the fault-crossing profiles (2005), 4) Repeat surveys of the Marmara GPS network to continue to monitor postseismic deformation, 5) Refining block models for the Marmara Sea seismic gap area to better understand earthquake hazards in the Greater Istanbul area, 6) Continuing development of models for afterslip and distributed viscoelastic deformation for the earthquake cycle. We are keeping close contact with MIT colleagues (Brad Hager, and Eric Hetland) who are developing models for S. California and for the earthquake cycle in general (Hetland, 2006). In addition, our Turkish partners at the Marmara Research Center have undertaken repeat, micro-gravity measurements at the MAGNET sites and have provided us estimates of gravity change during the period 2003 - 2005.

Potential earthquake faults offshore Southern California, from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fisher, M.A.; Sorlien, C.C.; Sliter, R.W.

2009-01-01

Urban areas in Southern California are at risk from major earthquakes, not only quakes generated by long-recognized onshore faults but also ones that occur along poorly understood offshore faults. We summarize recent research findings concerning these lesser known faults. Research by the U.S. Geological Survey during the past five years indicates that these faults from the eastern Santa Barbara Channel south to Dana Point pose a potential earthquake threat. Historical seismicity in this area indicates that, in general, offshore faults can unleash earthquakes having at least moderate (M 5-6) magnitude. Estimating the earthquake hazard in Southern California is complicated by strain partitioning and by inheritance of structures from early tectonic episodes. The three main episodes are Mesozoic through early Miocene subduction, early Miocene crustal extension coeval with rotation of the Western Transverse Ranges, and Pliocene and younger transpression related to plate-boundary motion along the San Andreas Fault. Additional complication in the analysis of earthquake hazards derives from the partitioning of tectonic strain into strike-slip and thrust components along separate but kinematically related faults. The eastern Santa Barbara Basin is deformed by large active reverse and thrust faults, and this area appears to be underlain regionally by the north-dipping Channel Islands thrust fault. These faults could produce moderate to strong earthquakes and destructive tsunamis. On the Malibu coast, earthquakes along offshore faults could have left-lateral-oblique focal mechanisms, and the Santa Monica Mountains thrust fault, which underlies the oblique faults, could give rise to large (M ??7) earthquakes. Offshore faults near Santa Monica Bay and the San Pedro shelf are likely to produce both strike-slip and thrust earthquakes along northwest-striking faults. In all areas, transverse structures, such as lateral ramps and tear faults, which crosscut the main faults, could

Earthquake rupture process recreated from a natural fault surface

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.; Minasian, Diane L.

2015-01-01

What exactly happens on the rupture surface as an earthquake nucleates, spreads, and stops? We cannot observe this directly, and models depend on assumptions about physical conditions and geometry at depth. We thus measure a natural fault surface and use its 3D coordinates to construct a replica at 0.1 m resolution to obviate geometry uncertainty. We can recreate stick-slip behavior on the resulting finite element model that depends solely on observed fault geometry. We clamp the fault together and apply steady state tectonic stress until seismic slip initiates and terminates. Our recreated M~1 earthquake initiates at contact points where there are steep surface gradients because infinitesimal lateral displacements reduce clamping stress most efficiently there. Unclamping enables accelerating slip to spread across the surface, but the fault soon jams up because its uneven, anisotropic shape begins to juxtapose new high-relief sticking points. These contacts would ultimately need to be sheared off or strongly deformed before another similar earthquake could occur. Our model shows that an important role is played by fault-wall geometry, though we do not include effects of varying fluid pressure or exotic rheologies on the fault surfaces. We extrapolate our results to large fault systems using observed self-similarity properties, and suggest that larger ruptures might begin and end in a similar way, though the scale of geometrical variation in fault shape that can arrest a rupture necessarily scales with magnitude. In other words, fault segmentation may be a magnitude dependent phenomenon and could vary with each subsequent rupture.

Real-time inversions for finite fault slip models and rupture geometry based on high-rate GPS data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minson, Sarah E.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Gomberg, Joan S.

2015-01-01

We present an inversion strategy capable of using real-time high-rate GPS data to simultaneously solve for a distributed slip model and fault geometry in real time as a rupture unfolds. We employ Bayesian inference to find the optimal fault geometry and the distribution of possible slip models for that geometry using a simple analytical solution. By adopting an analytical Bayesian approach, we can solve this complex inversion problem (including calculating the uncertainties on our results) in real time. Furthermore, since the joint inversion for distributed slip and fault geometry can be computed in real time, the time required to obtain a source model of the earthquake does not depend on the computational cost. Instead, the time required is controlled by the duration of the rupture and the time required for information to propagate from the source to the receivers. We apply our modeling approach, called Bayesian Evidence-based Fault Orientation and Real-time Earthquake Slip, to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, and a simulated Hayward fault earthquake. In all three cases, the inversion recovers the magnitude, spatial distribution of slip, and fault geometry in real time. Since our inversion relies on static offsets estimated from real-time high-rate GPS data, we also present performance tests of various approaches to estimating quasi-static offsets in real time. We find that the raw high-rate time series are the best data to use for determining the moment magnitude of the event, but slightly smoothing the raw time series helps stabilize the inversion for fault geometry.

Coulomb stress transfer and tectonic loading preceding the 2002 Denali fault earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bufe, Charles G.

2006-01-01

Pre-2002 tectonic loading and Coulomb stress transfer are modeled along the rupture zone of the M 7.9 Denali fault earthquake (DFE) and on adjacent segments of the right-lateral Denali–Totschunda fault system in central Alaska, using a three-dimensional boundary-element program. The segments modeled closely follow, for about 95°, the arc of a circle of radius 375 km centered on an inferred asperity near the northeastern end of the intersection of the Patton Bay fault with the Alaskan megathrust under Prince William Sound. The loading model includes slip of 6 mm/yr below 12 km along the fault system, consistent with rotation of the Wrangell block about the asperity at a rate of about 1°/m.y. as well as slip of the Pacific plate at 5 cm/yr at depth along the Fairweather–Queen Charlotte transform fault system and on the Alaska megathrust. The model is consistent with most available pre-2002 Global Positioning System (GPS) displacement rate data. Coulomb stresses induced on the Denali–Totschunda fault system (locked above 12 km) by slip at depth and by transfer from the M 9.2 Prince William Sound earthquake of 1964 dominated the changing Coulomb stress distribution along the fault. The combination of loading (∼70–85%) and coseismic stress transfer from the great 1964 earthquake (∼15–30%) were the principal post-1900 stress factors building toward strike-slip failure of the northern Denali and Totschunda segments in the M 7.9 earthquake of November 2002. Postseismic stresses transferred from the 1964 earthquake may also have been a significant factor. The M 7.2–7.4 Delta River earthquake of 1912 (Carver et al., 2004) may have delayed or advanced the timing of the DFE, depending on the details and location of its rupture. The initial subevent of the 2002 DFE earthquake was on the 40-km Susitna Glacier thrust fault at the western end of the Denali fault rupture. The Coulomb stress transferred from the 1964 earthquake moved the Susitna Glacier thrust

Real-time Estimation of Fault Rupture Extent for Recent Large Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, M.; Mori, J. J.

2009-12-01

Current earthquake early warning systems assume point source models for the rupture. However, for large earthquakes, the fault rupture length can be of the order of tens to hundreds of kilometers, and the prediction of ground motion at a site requires the approximated knowledge of the rupture geometry. Early warning information based on a point source model may underestimate the ground motion at a site, if a station is close to the fault but distant from the epicenter. We developed an empirical function to classify seismic records into near-source (NS) or far-source (FS) records based on the past strong motion records (Yamada et al., 2007). Here, we defined the near-source region as an area with a fault rupture distance less than 10km. If we have ground motion records at a station, the probability that the station is located in the near-source region is; P = 1/(1+exp(-f)) f = 6.046log10(Za) + 7.885log10(Hv) - 27.091 where Za and Hv denote the peak values of the vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity, respectively. Each observation provides the probability that the station is located in near-source region, so the resolution of the proposed method depends on the station density. The information of the fault rupture location is a group of points where the stations are located. However, for practical purposes, the 2-dimensional configuration of the fault is required to compute the ground motion at a site. In this study, we extend the methodology of NS/FS classification to characterize 2-dimensional fault geometries and apply them to strong motion data observed in recent large earthquakes. We apply a cosine-shaped smoothing function to the probability distribution of near-source stations, and convert the point fault location to 2-dimensional fault information. The estimated rupture geometry for the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake 10 seconds after the origin time is shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we illustrate our method with strong motion data of the

Coseismic deformation of the 2001 El Salvador and 2002 Denali fault earthquakes from GPS geodetic measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hreinsdottir, Sigrun

2005-07-01

GPS geodetic measurements are used to study two major earthquakes, the 2001 MW 7.7 El Salvador and 2002 MW 7.9 Denali Fault earthquakes. The 2001 MW 7.7 earthquake was a normal fault event in the subducting Cocos plate offshore El Salvador. Coseismic displacements of up to 15 mm were measured at permanent GPS stations in Central America. The GPS data were used to constrain the location of and slip on the normal fault. One month later a MW 6.6 strike-slip earthquake occurred in the overriding Caribbean plate. Coulomb stress changes estimated from the M W 7.7 earthquake suggest that it triggered the MW 6.6 earthquake. Coseismic displacement from the MW 6.6 earthquake, about 40 mm at a GPS station in El Salvador, indicates that the earthquake triggered additional slip on a fault close to the GPS station. The MW 6.6 earthquake further changed the stress field in the overriding Caribbean plate, with triggered seismic activity occurring west and possibly also to the east of the rupture in the days to months following the earthquake. The MW 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake ruptured three faults in the interior of Alaska. It initiated with a thrust motion on the Susitna Glacier fault but then ruptured the Denali and Totschunda faults with predominantly right-lateral strike-slip motion unilaterally from west to east. GPS data measured in the two weeks following the earthquake suggest a complex coseismic rupture along the faults with two main regions of moment release along the Denali fault. A large amount of additional data were collected in the year following the earthquake which greatly improved the resolution on the fault, revealing more details of the slip distribution. We estimate a total moment release of 6.81 x 1020 Nm in the earthquake with a M W 7.2 thrust subevent on Susitna Glacier fault. The slip on the Denali fault is highly variable, with 4 main pulses of moment release. The largest moment pulse corresponds to a MW 7.5 subevent, about 40 km west of the Denali

Surface fault rupture during the Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake, New Zealand, with specific comment on the Kekerengu Fault - one of the country's fastest slipping onland active faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dissen, Russ; Little, Tim

2017-04-01

The Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake of 14 November, 2016 (NZDT) was a complex event. It involved ground-surface (or seafloor) fault rupture on at least a dozen onland or offshore faults, and subsurface rupture on a handful of additional faults. Most of the surface ruptures involved previously known (or suspected) active faults, as well as surface rupture on at least two hitherto unrecognised active faults. The southwest to northeast extent of surface fault rupture, as generalised by two straight-line segments, is approximately 180 km, though this is a minimum for the collective length of surface rupture due to multiple overlapping faults with various orientations. Surface rupture displacements on specific faults involved in the Kaikoura Earthquake span approximately two orders of magnitude. For example, maximum surface displacement on the Heaver's Creek Fault is cm- to dm-scale in size; whereas, maximum surface displacement on the nearby Kekerengu Fault is approximately 10-12 m (predominantly in a dextral sense). The Kekerengu Fault has a Late Pleistocene slip-rate rate of 20-26 mm/yr, and is possibly the second fastest slipping onland fault in New Zealand, behind the Alpine Fault. Located in the northeastern South Island of New Zealand, the Kekerengu Fault - along with the Hope Fault to the southwest and the Needles Fault offshore to the northeast - comprise the fastest slipping elements of the Pacific-Australian plate boundary in this part of the country. In January 2016 (about ten months prior to the Kaikoura earthquake) three paleo-earthquake investigation trenches were excavated across pronounced traces of the Kekerengu Fault at two locations. These were the first such trenches dug and evaluated across the fault. All three trenches displayed abundant evidence of past surface fault ruptures (three surface ruptures in the last approximately 1,200 years, four now including the 2016 rupture). An interesting aspect of the 2016 rupture is that two of the trenches

Frictional stability and earthquake triggering during fluid pressure stimulation of an experimental fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scuderi, M. M.; Collettini, C.; Marone, C.

2017-11-01

It is widely recognized that the significant increase of M > 3.0 earthquakes in Western Canada and the Central United States is related to underground fluid injection. Following injection, fluid overpressure lubricates the fault and reduces the effective normal stress that holds the fault in place, promoting slip. Although, this basic physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and fault slip is well understood, there are many open questions related to induced seismicity. Models of earthquake nucleation based on rate- and state-friction predict that fluid overpressure should stabilize fault slip rather than trigger earthquakes. To address this controversy, we conducted laboratory creep experiments to monitor fault slip evolution at constant shear stress while the effective normal stress was systematically reduced via increasing fluid pressure. We sheared layers of carbonate-bearing fault gouge in a double direct shear configuration within a true-triaxial pressure vessel. We show that fault slip evolution is controlled by the stress state acting on the fault and that fluid pressurization can trigger dynamic instability even in cases of rate strengthening friction, which should favor aseismic creep. During fluid pressurization, when shear and effective normal stresses reach the failure condition, accelerated creep occurs in association with fault dilation; further pressurization leads to an exponential acceleration with fault compaction and slip localization. Our work indicates that fault weakening induced by fluid pressurization can overcome rate strengthening friction resulting in fast acceleration and earthquake slip. Our work points to modifications of the standard model for earthquake nucleation to account for the effect of fluid overpressure and to accurately predict the seismic risk associated with fluid injection.

Hazard-to-Risk: High-Performance Computing Simulations of Large Earthquake Ground Motions and Building Damage in the Near-Fault Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miah, M.; Rodgers, A. J.; McCallen, D.; Petersson, N. A.; Pitarka, A.

2017-12-01

We are running high-performance computing (HPC) simulations of ground motions for large (magnitude, M=6.5-7.0) earthquakes in the near-fault region (< 50 km) to 5 Hz and higher. Ground motions are then used as forcing functions for canonical steel moment frame buildings throughout the near-fault domain. For ground motions, we are using SW4, a fourth order summation-by-parts finite difference time-domain code running on 10,000-100,000's of cores. Earthquake ruptures are generated using the Graves and Pitarka (2017) method. We validated ground motion intensity measurements against Ground Motion Prediction Equations. We considered two events (M=6.5 and 7.0) for vertical strike-slip ruptures with three-dimensional (3D) basin structures, including stochastic heterogeneity. We have also considered M7.0 scenarios for a Hayward Fault rupture scenario which effects the San Francisco Bay Area and northern California using both 1D and 3D earth structure. Dynamic, inelastic response of canonical buildings is computed with the NEVADA, a nonlinear, finite-deformation finite element code. Canonical buildings include 3-, 9-, 20- and 40-story steel moment frame buildings. Damage potential is tracked by the peak inter-story drift (PID) ratio, which measures the maximum displacement between adjacent floors of the building and is strongly correlated with damage. PID ratios greater 1.0 generally indicate non-linear response and permanent deformation of the structure. We also track roof displacement to identify permanent deformation. PID (damage) for a given earthquake scenario (M, slip distribution, hypocenter) is spatially mapped throughout the SW4 domain with 1-2 km resolution. Results show that in the near fault region building damage is correlated with peak ground velocity (PGV), while farther away (> 20 km) it is better correlated with peak ground acceleration (PGA). We also show how simulated ground motions have peaks in the response spectra that shift to longer periods for

Continuous Record of Permeability inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, L.; Li, H.; Brodsky, E. E.; Wang, H.; Pei, J.

2012-12-01

Faults are complex hydrogeological structures which include a highly permeable damage zone with fracture-dominated permeability. Since fractures are generated by earthquakes, we would expect that in the aftermath of a large earthquake, the permeability would be transiently high in a fault zone. Over time, the permeability may recover due to a combination of chemical and mechanical processes. However, the in situ fault zone hydrological properties are difficult to measure and have never been directly constrained on a fault zone immediately after a large earthquake. In this work, we use water level response to solid Earth tides to constrain the hydraulic properties inside the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone. The transmissivity and storage determine the phase and amplitude response of the water level to the tidal loading. By measuring phase and amplitude response, we can constrain the average hydraulic properties of the damage zone at 800-1200 m below the surface (˜200-600 m from the principal slip zone). We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the phase and amplitude responses and the corresponding errors for the largest semidiurnal Earth tide M2 in the time domain. The average phase lag is ˜30°, and the average amplitude response is 6×10-7 strain/m. Assuming an isotropic, homogenous and laterally extensive aquifer, the average storage coefficient S is 2×10-4 and the average transmissivity T is 6×10-7 m2 using the measured phase and the amplitude response. Calculation for the hydraulic diffusivity D with D=T/S, yields the reported value of D is 3×10-3 m2/s, which is two orders of magnitude larger than pump test values on the Chelungpu Fault which is the site of the Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake. If the value is representative of the fault zone, then this means the hydrology processes should have an effect on the earthquake rupture process. This measurement is done through continuous monitoring and we could track the evolution for hydraulic properties

Quasi-periodic recurrence of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scharer, Katherine M.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Weldon, Ray J.; Fumal, Tom E.

2010-01-01

It has been 153 yr since the last large earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault (California, United States), but the average interseismic interval is only ~100 yr. If the recurrence of large earthquakes is periodic, rather than random or clustered, the length of this period is notable and would generally increase the risk estimated in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. Unfortunately, robust characterization of a distribution describing earthquake recurrence on a single fault is limited by the brevity of most earthquake records. Here we use statistical tests on a 3000 yr combined record of 29 ground-rupturing earthquakes from Wrightwood, California. We show that earthquake recurrence there is more regular than expected from a Poisson distribution and is not clustered, leading us to conclude that recurrence is quasi-periodic. The observation of unimodal time dependence is persistent across an observationally based sensitivity analysis that critically examines alternative interpretations of the geologic record. The results support formal forecast efforts that use renewal models to estimate probabilities of future earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault. Only four intervals (15%) from the record are longer than the present open interval, highlighting the current hazard posed by this fault.

Synthetic earthquake catalogs simulating seismic activity in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Console, Rodolfo; Carluccio, Roberto; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vassilis

2015-01-01

The characteristic earthquake hypothesis is the basis of time-dependent modeling of earthquake recurrence on major faults. However, the characteristic earthquake hypothesis is not strongly supported by observational data. Few fault segments have long historical or paleoseismic records of individually dated ruptures, and when data and parameter uncertainties are allowed for, the form of the recurrence distribution is difficult to establish. This is the case, for instance, of the Corinth Gulf Fault System (CGFS), for which documents about strong earthquakes exist for at least 2000 years, although they can be considered complete for M ≥ 6.0 only for the latest 300 years, during which only few characteristic earthquakes are reported for individual fault segments. The use of a physics-based earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100,000 years and containing more than 500,000 events of magnitudes ≥ 4.0. The main features of our simulation algorithm are (1) an average slip rate released by earthquakes for every single segment in the investigated fault system, (2) heuristic procedures for rupture growth and stop, leading to a self-organized earthquake magnitude distribution, (3) the interaction between earthquake sources, and (4) the effect of minor earthquakes in redistributing stress. The application of our simulation algorithm to the CGFS has shown realistic features in time, space, and magnitude behavior of the seismicity. These features include long-term periodicity of strong earthquakes, short-term clustering of both strong and smaller events, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the higher-magnitude range.

Width of the Surface Rupture Zone for Thrust Earthquakes and Implications for Earthquake Fault Zoning: Chi-Chi 1999 and Wenchuan 2008 Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncio, P.; Caldarella, M.

2016-12-01

We analyze the zones of coseismic surface faulting along thrust faults, whit the aim of defining the most appropriate criteria for zoning the Surface Fault Rupture Hazard (SFRH) along thrust faults. Normal and strike-slip faults were deeply studied in the past, while thrust faults were not studied with comparable attention. We analyze the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan (Mw 7.6) and 2008 Wenchuan, China (Mw 7.9) earthquakes. Several different types of coseismic fault scarps characterize the two earthquakes, depending on the topography, fault geometry and near-surface materials. For both the earthquakes, we collected from the literature, or measured in GIS-georeferenced published maps, data about the Width of the coseismic Rupture Zone (WRZ). The frequency distribution of WRZ compared to the trace of the main fault shows that the surface ruptures occur mainly on and near the main fault. Ruptures located away from the main fault occur mainly in the hanging wall. Where structural complexities are present (e.g., sharp bends, step-overs), WRZ is wider then for simple fault traces. We also fitted the distribution of the WRZ dataset with probability density functions, in order to define a criterion to remove outliers (e.g., by selecting 90% or 95% probability) and define the zone where the probability of SFRH is the highest. This might help in sizing the zones of SFRH during seismic microzonation (SM) mapping. In order to shape zones of SFRH, a very detailed earthquake geologic study of the fault is necessary. In the absence of such a very detailed study, during basic (First level) SM mapping, a width of 350-400 m seems to be recommended (95% of probability). If the fault is carefully mapped (higher level SM), one must consider that the highest SFRH is concentrated in a narrow zone, 50 m-wide, that should be considered as a "fault-avoidance (or setback) zone". These fault zones should be asymmetric. The ratio of footwall to hanging wall (FW:HW) calculated here ranges from 1:5 to 1:3.

Has El Salvador Fault Zone produced M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes? The 1719 El Salvador earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canora, C.; Martínez-Díaz, J.; Álvarez-Gómez, J.; Villamor, P.; Ínsua-Arévalo, J.; Alonso-Henar, J.; Capote, R.

2013-05-01

Historically, large earthquakes, Mw ≥ 7.0, in the Εl Salvador area have been attributed to activity in the Cocos-Caribbean subduction zone. Τhis is correct for most of the earthquakes of magnitude greater than 6.5. However, recent paleoseismic evidence points to the existence of large earthquakes associated with rupture of the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, an Ε-W oriented strike slip fault system that extends for 150 km through central Εl Salvador. Τo calibrate our results from paleoseismic studies, we have analyzed the historical seismicity of the area. In particular, we suggest that the 1719 earthquake can be associated with paleoseismic activity evidenced in the Εl Salvador Fault Ζone. Α reinterpreted isoseismal map for this event suggests that the damage reported could have been a consequence of the rupture of Εl Salvador Fault Ζone, rather than rupture of the subduction zone. Τhe isoseismal is not different to other upper crustal earthquakes in similar tectonovolcanic environments. We thus challenge the traditional assumption that only the subduction zone is capable of generating earthquakes of magnitude greater than 7.0 in this region. Τhis result has broad implications for future risk management in the region. Τhe potential occurrence of strong ground motion, significantly higher and closer to the Salvadorian populations that those assumed to date, must be considered in seismic hazard assessment studies in this area.

Unexpected earthquake hazard revealed by Holocene rupture on the Kenchreai Fault (central Greece): Implications for weak sub-fault shear zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copley, Alex; Grützner, Christoph; Howell, Andy; Jackson, James; Penney, Camilla; Wimpenny, Sam

2018-03-01

High-resolution elevation models, palaeoseismic trenching, and Quaternary dating demonstrate that the Kenchreai Fault in the eastern Gulf of Corinth (Greece) has ruptured in the Holocene. Along with the adjacent Pisia and Heraion Faults (which ruptured in 1981), our results indicate the presence of closely-spaced and parallel normal faults that are simultaneously active, but at different rates. Such a configuration allows us to address one of the major questions in understanding the earthquake cycle, specifically what controls the distribution of interseismic strain accumulation? Our results imply that the interseismic loading and subsequent earthquakes on these faults are governed by weak shear zones in the underlying ductile crust. In addition, the identification of significant earthquake slip on a fault that does not dominate the late Quaternary geomorphology or vertical coastal motions in the region provides an important lesson in earthquake hazard assessment.

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burford, R.O.

1988-01-01

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of ML=5.3 and ML=5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 ML=5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system, central California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burford, Robert O.

1988-06-01

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes of M L =5.3 and M L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average. The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquake retardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979 M L =5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter

The 2011 Hawthorne, Nevada, Earthquake Sequence; Shallow Normal Faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, K. D.; Johnson, C.; Davies, J. A.; Agbaje, T.; Knezevic Antonijevic, S.; Kent, G.

2011-12-01

An energetic sequence of shallow earthquakes that began in early March 2011 in western Nevada, near the community of Hawthorne, has slowly decreased in intensity through mid-2011. To date about 1300 reviewed earthquake locations have been compiled; we have computed moment tensors for the larger earthquakes and have developed a set of high-precision locations for all reviewed events. The sequence to date has included over 50 earthquakes ML 3 and larger with the largest at Mw 4.6. Three 6-channel portable stations configured with broadband sensors and accelerometers were installed by April 20. Data from the portable instruments is telemetered through NSL's microwave backbone to Reno where it is integrated with regional network data for real-time notifications, ShakeMaps, and routine event analysis. The data is provided in real-time to NEIC, CISN and the IRIS DMC. The sequence is located in a remote area about 15-20 km southwest of Hawthorne in the footwall block of the Wassuk Range fault system. An initial concern was that the sequence might be associated with volcanic processes due to the proximity of late Quaternary volcanic flows; there have been no volcanic signatures observed in near source seismograms. An additional concern, as the sequence has proceeded, was a clear progression eastward toward the Wassuk Range front fault. The east dipping range bounding fault is capable of M 7+ events, and poses a significant hazard to the community of Hawthorne and local military facilities. The Hawthorne Army Depot is an ordinance storage facility and the nation's storage site for surplus mercury. The sequence is within what has been termed the 'Mina Deflection' of the Central Walker Lane Belt. Faulting along the Whiskey Flat section of the Wassuk front fault would be primarily down-to-the-east, with an E-W extension direction; moment tensors for the 2011 earthquake show a range of extension directions from E-W to NW-SE, suggesting a possible dextral component to the Wassuk

Probing failure susceptibilities of earthquake faults using small-quake tidal correlations.

PubMed

Brinkman, Braden A W; LeBlanc, Michael; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Uhl, Jonathan T; Dahmen, Karin A

2015-01-27

Mitigating the devastating economic and humanitarian impact of large earthquakes requires signals for forecasting seismic events. Daily tide stresses were previously thought to be insufficient for use as such a signal. Recently, however, they have been found to correlate significantly with small earthquakes, just before large earthquakes occur. Here we present a simple earthquake model to investigate whether correlations between daily tidal stresses and small earthquakes provide information about the likelihood of impending large earthquakes. The model predicts that intervals of significant correlations between small earthquakes and ongoing low-amplitude periodic stresses indicate increased fault susceptibility to large earthquake generation. The results agree with the recent observations of large earthquakes preceded by time periods of significant correlations between smaller events and daily tide stresses. We anticipate that incorporating experimentally determined parameters and fault-specific details into the model may provide new tools for extracting improved probabilities of impending large earthquakes.

Fault interaction and stress triggering of twentieth century earthquakes in Mongolia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pollitz, F.; Vergnolle, M.; Calais, E.

2003-01-01

A cluster of exceptionally large earthquakes in the interior of Asia occurred from 1905 to 1967: the 1905 M7.9 Tsetserleg and M8.4 Bolnai earthquakes, the 1931 M8.0 Fu Yun earthquake, the 1957 M8.1 Gobi-Altai earthquake, and the 1967 M7.1 Mogod earthquake (sequence). Each of the larger (M ??? 8) earthquakes involved strike-slip faulting averaging more than 5 m and rupture lengths of several hundred kilometers. Available geologic data indicate that recurrence intervals on the major source faults are several thousands of years and distances of about 400 km separate the respective rupture areas. We propose that the occurrences of these and many smaller earthquakes are related and controlled to a large extent by stress changes generated by the compounded static deformation of the preceding earthquakes and subsequent viscoelastic relaxation of the lower crust and upper mantle beneath Mongolia. We employ a spherically layered viscoelastic model constrained by the 1994-2002 GPS velocity field in western Mongolia [Vergnolle et al., 2003]. Using the succession of twentieth century earthquakes as sources of deformation, we then analyze the time-dependent change in Coulomb failure stress (????f). At remote interaction distances, static ????f values are small. However, modeled postseismic stress changes typically accumulate to several tenths of a bar over time intervals of decades. Almost all significant twentieth century regional earthquakes (M ??? 6) with well-constrained fault geometry lie in positive ????f lobes of magnitude about +0.5 bar. Our results suggest that significant stress transfer is possible among continental faults separated by hundreds of kilometers and on timescales of decades. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Characterizing the structural maturity of fault zones using high-resolution earthquake locations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrin, C.; Waldhauser, F.; Scholz, C. H.

2017-12-01

We use high-resolution earthquake locations to characterize the three-dimensional structure of active faults in California and how it evolves with fault structural maturity. We investigate the distribution of aftershocks of several recent large earthquakes that occurred on immature faults (i.e., slow moving and small cumulative displacement), such as the 1992 (Mw7.3) Landers and 1999 (Mw7.1) Hector Mine events, and earthquakes that occurred on mature faults, such as the 1984 (Mw6.2) Morgan Hill and 2004 (Mw6.0) Parkfield events. Unlike previous studies which typically estimated the width of fault zones from the distribution of earthquakes perpendicular to the surface fault trace, we resolve fault zone widths with respect to the 3D fault surface estimated from principal component analysis of local seismicity. We find that the zone of brittle deformation around the fault core is narrower along mature faults compared to immature faults. We observe a rapid fall off of the number of events at a distance range of 70 - 100 m from the main fault surface of mature faults (140-200 m fault zone width), and 200-300 m from the fault surface of immature faults (400-600 m fault zone width). These observations are in good agreement with fault zone widths estimated from guided waves trapped in low velocity damage zones. The total width of the active zone of deformation surrounding the main fault plane reach 1.2 km and 2-4 km for mature and immature faults, respectively. The wider zone of deformation presumably reflects the increased heterogeneity in the stress field along complex and discontinuous faults strands that make up immature faults. In contrast, narrower deformation zones tend to align with well-defined fault planes of mature faults where most of the deformation is concentrated. Our results are in line with previous studies suggesting that surface fault traces become smoother, and thus fault zones simpler, as cumulative fault slip increases.

Phase response curves for models of earthquake fault dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Franović, Igor, E-mail: franovic@ipb.ac.rs; Kostić, Srdjan; Perc, Matjaž

We systematically study effects of external perturbations on models describing earthquake fault dynamics. The latter are based on the framework of the Burridge-Knopoff spring-block system, including the cases of a simple mono-block fault, as well as the paradigmatic complex faults made up of two identical or distinct blocks. The blocks exhibit relaxation oscillations, which are representative for the stick-slip behavior typical for earthquake dynamics. Our analysis is carried out by determining the phase response curves of first and second order. For a mono-block fault, we consider the impact of a single and two successive pulse perturbations, further demonstrating how themore » profile of phase response curves depends on the fault parameters. For a homogeneous two-block fault, our focus is on the scenario where each of the blocks is influenced by a single pulse, whereas for heterogeneous faults, we analyze how the response of the system depends on whether the stimulus is applied to the block having a shorter or a longer oscillation period.« less

Earthquake cycle modeling of multi-segmented faults: dynamic rupture and ground motion simulation of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petukhin, A.; Galvez, P.; Somerville, P.; Ampuero, J. P.

2017-12-01

We perform earthquake cycle simulations to study the characteristics of source scaling relations and strong ground motions and in multi-segmented fault ruptures. For earthquake cycle modeling, a quasi-dynamic solver (QDYN, Luo et al, 2016) is used to nucleate events and the fully dynamic solver (SPECFEM3D, Galvez et al., 2014, 2016) is used to simulate earthquake ruptures. The Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake has been chosen as a target earthquake to validate our methodology. The SCEC fault geometry for the three-segmented Landers rupture is included and extended at both ends to a total length of 200 km. We followed the 2-D spatial correlated Dc distributions based on Hillers et. al. (2007) that associates Dc distribution with different degrees of fault maturity. The fault maturity is related to the variability of Dc on a microscopic scale. Large variations of Dc represents immature faults and lower variations of Dc represents mature faults. Moreover we impose a taper (a-b) at the fault edges and limit the fault depth to 15 km. Using these settings, earthquake cycle simulations are performed to nucleate seismic events on different sections of the fault, and dynamic rupture modeling is used to propagate the ruptures. The fault segmentation brings complexity into the rupture process. For instance, the change of strike between fault segments enhances strong variations of stress. In fact, Oglesby and Mai (2012) show the normal stress varies from positive (clamping) to negative (unclamping) between fault segments, which leads to favorable or unfavorable conditions for rupture growth. To replicate these complexities and the effect of fault segmentation in the rupture process, we perform earthquake cycles with dynamic rupture modeling and generate events similar to the Mw 7.3 Landers earthquake. We extract the asperities of these events and analyze the scaling relations between rupture area, average slip and combined area of asperities versus moment magnitude. Finally, the

Can diligent and extensive mapping of faults provide reliable estimates of the expected maximum earthquakes at these faults? No. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bird, P.

2010-12-01

The hope expressed in the title question above can be contradicted in 5 ways, listed below. To summarize, an earthquake rupture can be larger than anticipated either because the fault system has not been fully mapped, or because the rupture is not limited to the pre-existing fault network. 1. Geologic mapping of faults is always incomplete due to four limitations: (a) Map-scale limitation: Faults below a certain (scale-dependent) apparent offset are omitted; (b) Field-time limitation: The most obvious fault(s) get(s) the most attention; (c) Outcrop limitation: You can't map what you can't see; and (d) Lithologic-contrast limitation: Intra-formation faults can be tough to map, so they are often assumed to be minor and omitted. If mapping is incomplete, fault traces may be longer and/or better-connected than we realize. 2. Fault trace “lengths” are unreliable guides to maximum magnitude. Fault networks have multiply-branching, quasi-fractal shapes, so fault “length” may be meaningless. Naming conventions for main strands are unclear, and rarely reviewed. Gaps due to Quaternary alluvial cover may not reflect deeper seismogenic structure. Mapped kinks and other “segment boundary asperities” may be only shallow structures. Also, some recent earthquakes have jumped and linked “separate” faults (Landers, California 1992; Denali, Alaska, 2002) [Wesnousky, 2006; Black, 2008]. 3. Distributed faulting (“eventually occurring everywhere”) is predicted by several simple theories: (a) Viscoelastic stress redistribution in plate/microplate interiors concentrates deviatoric stress upward until they fail by faulting; (b) Unstable triple-junctions (e.g., between 3 strike-slip faults) in 2-D plate theory require new faults to form; and (c) Faults which appear to end (on a geologic map) imply distributed permanent deformation. This means that all fault networks evolve and that even a perfect fault map would be incomplete for future ruptures. 4. A recent attempt

Mapping the 3D Geometry of the San Leandro Block of the Hayward Fault Zone Using Geologic, Geophysical and Remote Sensing Data, California State University, East Bay Campus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McEvilly, A.; Abimbola, A.; Chan, J. H.; Strayer, L. M.

2015-12-01

California State University, East Bay (CSUEB), located in Hayward, California, lies atop the San Leandro block (SLB) in the Hayward fault zone. The SLB is a J-K aged lithotectonic assemblage dominated by gabbro and intercalated with minor volcanics and sediments. It is bound by the subparallel northwest-trending western Hayward and eastern Chabot (CF) faults and pervasively cut by anastomosing secondary faults. The block itself is ~30 km along strike and 2-3 km wide. Previous studies suggest the block dips steeply to the northeast and extends to a depth of at least 7 km. In May of 2015, as part of an ongoing collaborative effort led by the USGS to create a 3D velocity model of the San Francisco Bay Area, researchers from CSUEB and the USGS conducted a seismic survey on the CSUEB campus. The primary goal of this pilot study was to locate the trace of the CF on the CSUEB campus and to determine bedrock depth. We deployed a 60-channel, 300m profile using 4.5Hz sensors spaced at 5m intervals. Active seismic sources were used at each geophone location. A 226kg accelerated weight-drop was used to generate P and Rayleigh waves for P-wave tomography and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), and a 3.5kg sledgehammer and block were used to generate S and Love waves for S-wave tomography and multichannel analysis of Love waves (MALW). Preliminary P-wave tomography, MASW, and MALW results from this pilot study suggest the location of an eastward-dipping CF as well as the presence of a high-velocity unit at about 20m depth, presumably an unmapped sliver of bedrock from the San Leandro block. Further studies planned for the fall of 2015 include additional seismic lines and surface mapping along the Chabot fault on and near the CSUEB campus. These new geophysical, GPS, and field geological data will be integrated with LiDAR imagery and existing geological, gravity and magnetic maps to create a 3-dimensional model of the portion of the SLB that contains the CSUEB campus.

Earthquake Clustering on Normal Faults: Insight from Rate-and-State Friction Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biemiller, J.; Lavier, L. L.; Wallace, L.

2016-12-01

Temporal variations in slip rate on normal faults have been recognized in Hawaii and the Basin and Range. The recurrence intervals of these slip transients range from 2 years on the flanks of Kilauea, Hawaii to 10 kyr timescale earthquake clustering on the Wasatch Fault in the eastern Basin and Range. In addition to these longer recurrence transients in the Basin and Range, recent GPS results there also suggest elevated deformation rate events with recurrence intervals of 2-4 years. These observations suggest that some active normal fault systems are dominated by slip behaviors that fall between the end-members of steady aseismic creep and periodic, purely elastic, seismic-cycle deformation. Recent studies propose that 200 year to 50 kyr timescale supercycles may control the magnitude, timing, and frequency of seismic-cycle earthquakes in subduction zones, where aseismic slip transients are known to play an important role in total deformation. Seismic cycle deformation of normal faults may be similarly influenced by its timing within long-period supercycles. We present numerical models (based on rate-and-state friction) of normal faults such as the Wasatch Fault showing that realistic rate-and-state parameter distributions along an extensional fault zone can give rise to earthquake clusters separated by 500 yr - 5 kyr periods of aseismic slip transients on some portions of the fault. The recurrence intervals of events within each earthquake cluster range from 200 to 400 years. Our results support the importance of stress and strain history as controls on a normal fault's present and future slip behavior and on the characteristics of its current seismic cycle. These models suggest that long- to medium-term fault slip history may influence the temporal distribution, recurrence interval, and earthquake magnitudes for a given normal fault segment.

Fault Branching and Long-Term Earthquake Rupture Scenario for Strike-Slip Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klinger, Y.; CHOI, J. H.; Vallage, A.

2017-12-01

Careful examination of surface rupture for large continental strike-slip earthquakes reveals that for the majority of earthquakes, at least one major branch is involved in the rupture pattern. Often, branching might be either related to the location of the epicenter or located toward the end of the rupture, and possibly related to the stopping of the rupture. In this work, we examine large continental earthquakes that show significant branches at different scales and for which ground surface rupture has been mapped in great details. In each case, rupture conditions are described, including dynamic parameters, past earthquakes history, and regional stress orientation, to see if the dynamic stress field would a priori favor branching. In one case we show that rupture propagation and branching are directly impacted by preexisting geological structures. These structures serve as pathways for the rupture attempting to propagate out of its shear plane. At larger scale, we show that in some cases, rupturing a branch might be systematic, hampering possibilities for the development of a larger seismic rupture. Long-term geomorphology hints at the existence of a strong asperity in the zone where the rupture branched off the main fault. There, no evidence of throughgoing rupture could be seen along the main fault, while the branch is well connected to the main fault. This set of observations suggests that for specific configurations, some rupture scenarios involving systematic branching are more likely than others.

Fluid-faulting interactions: Fracture-mesh and fault-valve behavior in the February 2014 Mammoth Mountain, California, earthquake swarm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelly, David R.; Taira, Taka’aki; Prejean, Stephanie; Hill, David P.; Dreger, Douglas S.

2015-01-01

Faulting and fluid transport in the subsurface are highly coupled processes, which may manifest seismically as earthquake swarms. A swarm in February 2014 beneath densely monitored Mammoth Mountain, California, provides an opportunity to witness these interactions in high resolution. Toward this goal, we employ massive waveform-correlation-based event detection and relative relocation, which quadruples the swarm catalog to more than 6000 earthquakes and produces high-precision locations even for very small events. The swarm's main seismic zone forms a distributed fracture mesh, with individual faults activated in short earthquake bursts. The largest event of the sequence, M 3.1, apparently acted as a fault valve and was followed by a distinct wave of earthquakes propagating ~1 km westward from the updip edge of rupture, 1–2 h later. Late in the swarm, multiple small, shallower subsidiary faults activated with pronounced hypocenter migration, suggesting that a broader fluid pressure pulse propagated through the subsurface.

The response of creeping parts of the San Andreas fault to earthquakes on nearby faults: Two examples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, R.W.; Schulz, S.S.; Dietz, L.D.; Burford, R.O.

1988-01-01

Rates of shallow slip on creeping sections of the San Andreas fault have been perturbed on a number of occasions by earthquakes occurring on nearby faults. One example of such perturbations occurred during the 26 January 1986 magnitude 5.3 Tres Pinos earthquake located about 10 km southeast of Hollister, California. Seven creepmeters on the San Andreas fault showed creep steps either during or soon after the shock. Both left-lateral (LL) and right-lateral (RL) steps were observed. A rectangular dislocation in an elastic half-space was used to model the coseismic fault offset at the hypocenter. For a model based on the preliminary focal mechanism, the predicted changes in static shear stress on the plane of the San Andreas fault agreed in sense (LL or RL) with the observed slip directions at all seven meters; for a model based on a refined focal mechanism, six of the seven meters showed the correct sense of motion. Two possible explanations for such coseismic and postseismic steps are (1) that slip was triggered by the earthquake shaking or (2) that slip occurred in response to the changes in static stress fields accompanying the earthquake. In the Tres Pinos example, the observed steps may have been of both the triggered and responsive kinds. A second example is provided by the 2 May 1983 magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake, which profoundly altered slip rates at five creepmeters on the San Andreas fault for a period of months to years. The XMM1 meter 9 km northwest of Parkfield, California recorded LL creep for more than a year after the event. To simulate the temporal behavior of the XMM1 meter and to view the stress perturbation provided by the Coalinga earthquake in the context of steady-state deformation on the San Andreas fault, a simple time-evolving dislocation model was constructed. The model was driven by a single long vertical dislocation below 15 km in depth, that was forced to slip at 35 mm/yr in a RL sense. A dislocation element placed in the

Active Fault Topography and Fault Outcrops in the Central Part of the Nukumi fault, the 1891 Nobi Earthquake Fault System, Central Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, T.; Ueta, K.; Inoue, D.; Aoyagi, Y.; Yanagida, M.; Ichikawa, K.; Goto, N.

2010-12-01

It is important to evaluate the magnitude of earthquake caused by multiple active faults, taking into account the simultaneous effects. The simultaneity of adjacent active faults are often decided on the basis of geometric distances except for known these paleoseismic records. We have been studied the step area between the Nukumi fault and the Neodani fault, which appeared as consecutive ruptures in the 1891 Nobi earthquake, since 2009. The purpose of this study is to establish innovation in valuation technique of the simultaneity of adjacent active faults in addition to the paleoseismic record and the geometric distance. Geomorphological, geological and reconnaissance microearthquake surveys are concluded. The present work is intended to clarify the distribution of tectonic geomorphology along the Nukumi fault and the Neodani fault by high-resolution interpretations of airborne LiDAR DEM and aerial photograph, and the field survey of outcrops and location survey. The study area of this work is the southeastern Nukumi fault and the northwestern Neodani fault. We interpret DEM using shaded relief map and stereoscopic bird's-eye view made from 2m mesh DEM data which is obtained by airborne laser scanner of Kokusai Kogyo Co., Ltd. Aerial photographic survey is for confirmation of DEM interpretation using 1/16,000 scale photo. As a result of topographic survey, we found consecutive tectonic topography which is left lateral displacement of ridge and valley lines and reverse scarplets along the Nukumi fault and the Neodani fault . From Ogotani 2km southeastern of Nukumi pass which is located at the southeastern end of surface rupture along the Nukumi fault by previous study to Neooppa 9km southeastern of Nukumi pass, we can interpret left lateral topographies and small uphill-facing fault scarps on the terrace surface by detail DEM investigation. These topographies are unrecognized by aerial photographic survey because of heavy vegetation. We have found several new

Earthquake precursory events around epicenters and local active faults; the cases of two inland earthquakes in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valizadeh Alvan, H.; Mansor, S.; Haydari Azad, F.

2012-12-01

The possibility of earthquake prediction in the frame of several days to few minutes before its occurrence has stirred interest among researchers, recently. Scientists believe that the new theories and explanations of the mechanism of this natural phenomenon are trustable and can be the basis of future prediction efforts. During the last thirty years experimental researches resulted in some pre-earthquake events which are now recognized as confirmed warning signs (precursors) of past known earthquakes. With the advances in in-situ measurement devices and data analysis capabilities and the emergence of satellite-based data collectors, monitoring the earth's surface is now a regular work. Data providers are supplying researchers from all over the world with high quality and validated imagery and non-imagery data. Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) or the amount of energy exchange in the form of water vapor between the earth's surface and atmosphere has been frequently reported as an earthquake precursor during the past years. The accumulated stress in the earth's crust during the preparation phase of earthquakes is said to be the main cause of temperature anomalies weeks to days before the main event and subsequent shakes. Chemical and physical interactions in the presence of underground water lead to higher water evaporation prior to inland earthquakes. On the other hand, the leak of Radon gas occurred as rocks break during earthquake preparation causes the formation of airborne ions and higher Air Temperature (AT) prior to main event. Although co-analysis of direct and indirect observation for precursory events is considered as a promising method for future successful earthquake prediction, without proper and thorough knowledge about the geological setting, atmospheric factors and geodynamics of the earthquake-prone regions we will not be able to identify anomalies due to seismic activity in the earth's crust. Active faulting is a key factor in identification of the

The Pawnee earthquake as a result of the interplay among injection, faults and foreshocks.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaowei; Nakata, Nori; Pennington, Colin; Haffener, Jackson; Chang, Jefferson C; He, Xiaohui; Zhan, Zhongwen; Ni, Sidao; Walter, Jacob I

2017-07-10

The Pawnee M5.8 earthquake is the largest event in Oklahoma instrument recorded history. It occurred near the edge of active seismic zones, similar to other M5+ earthquakes since 2011. It ruptured a previously unmapped fault and triggered aftershocks along a complex conjugate fault system. With a high-resolution earthquake catalog, we observe propagating foreshocks leading to the mainshock within 0.5 km distance, suggesting existence of precursory aseismic slip. At approximately 100 days before the mainshock, two M ≥ 3.5 earthquakes occurred along a mapped fault that is conjugate to the mainshock fault. At about 40 days before, two earthquakes clusters started, with one M3 earthquake occurred two days before the mainshock. The three M ≥ 3 foreshocks all produced positive Coulomb stress at the mainshock hypocenter. These foreshock activities within the conjugate fault system are near-instantaneously responding to variations in injection rates at 95% confidence. The short time delay between injection and seismicity differs from both the hypothetical expected time scale of diffusion process and the long time delay observed in this region prior to 2016, suggesting a possible role of elastic stress transfer and critical stress state of the fault. Our results suggest that the Pawnee earthquake is a result of interplay among injection, tectonic faults, and foreshocks.

Static stress changes associated with normal faulting earthquakes in South Balkan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadimitriou, E.; Karakostas, V.; Tranos, M.; Ranguelov, B.; Gospodinov, D.

2007-10-01

Activation of major faults in Bulgaria and northern Greece presents significant seismic hazard because of their proximity to populated centers. The long recurrence intervals, of the order of several hundred years as suggested by previous investigations, imply that the twentieth century activation along the southern boundary of the sub-Balkan graben system, is probably associated with stress transfer among neighbouring faults or fault segments. Fault interaction is investigated through elastic stress transfer among strong main shocks ( M ≥ 6.0), and in three cases their foreshocks, which ruptured distinct or adjacent normal fault segments. We compute stress perturbations caused by earthquake dislocations in a homogeneous half-space. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We explore the interaction between normal faults in the study area by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function ( ΔCFF) since 1904 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 100 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. We evaluate if these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. Our modeling results show that the generation of each strong event enhanced the Coulomb stress on along-strike neighbors and reduced the stress on parallel normal faults. We extend the stress calculations up to present and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying possible sites of impending strong earthquakes.

The HayWired Scenario - How Can the San Francisco Bay Region Bounce Back Better?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudnut, K. W.; Wein, A. M.; Cox, D. A.; Perry, S. C.; Porter, K.; Johnson, L. A.; Strauss, J. A.

2017-12-01

The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic and quantitative depiction of a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 earthquake occurring on April 18, 2018, at 4:18 p.m. on the Hayward Fault in the east bay part of the San Francisco Bay area, California. The hypothetical earthquake has its epicenter in Oakland, and strong ground shaking from the scenario causes a wide range of severe impacts throughout the greater bay region. In the scenario, the Hayward Fault is ruptured along its length for 83 kilometers (about 52 miles). Building on a decades-long series of efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the SF Bay area, the hypothetical HayWired earthquake is used to examine the well-known earthquake hazard of the Hayward Fault, with a focus on newly emerging vulnerabilities. After a major earthquake disaster, reestablishing water services and food-supply chains are, of course, top priorities. However, problems associated with telecommunication outages or "network congestion" will increase and become more urgent as the bay region deepens its reliance on the "Internet of Things." Communications at all levels are crucial during incident response following an earthquake. Damage to critical facilities (such as power plants) from earthquake shaking and to electrical and telecommunications wires and fiber-optic cables that are severed where they cross a fault rupture can trigger cascading Internet and telecommunications outages, and restoring these services is crucially important for emergency-response coordination. Without good communications, emergency-response efficiency is reduced, and as a result, life-saving response functions can be compromised. For these reasons, the name HayWired was chosen for this scenario to emphasize the need to examine our interconnectedness and reliance on telecommunications and other lifelines (such as water and electricity). Earthquake risk in the SF Bay area has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for

Simulated ground motion in Santa Clara Valley, California, and vicinity from M≥6.7 scenario earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, Stephen C.; Hartzell, Stephen

2008-01-01

Models of the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) 3D velocity structure and 3D finite-difference software are used to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas (SAF), Monte Vista/Shannon, South Hayward, and Calaveras faults. Twenty different scenario ruptures are considered that explore different source models with alternative hypocenters, fault dimensions, and rupture velocities and three different velocity models. Ground motion from the full wave field up to 1 Hz is exhibited as maps of peak horizontal velocity and pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 1, 3, and 5 sec. Basin edge effects and amplification in sedimentary basins of the SCV are observed that exhibit effects from shallow sediments with relatively low shear-wave velocity (330 m/sec). Scenario earthquakes have been simulated for events with the following magnitudes: (1) M 6.8–7.4 Calaveras sources, (2) M 6.7–6.9 South Hayward sources, (3) M 6.7 Monte Vista/Shannon sources, and (4) M 7.1–7.2 Peninsula segment of the SAF sources. Ground motions are strongly influenced by source parameters such as rupture velocity, rise time, maximum depth of rupture, hypocenter, and source directivity. Cenozoic basins also exert a strong influence on ground motion. For example, the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the SCV is especially responsive to 3–5-sec energy from most scenario earthquakes. The Cupertino Basin on the southwestern edge of the SCV tends to be highly excited by many Peninsula and Monte Vista fault scenarios. Sites over the interior of the Evergreen Basin can have long-duration coda that reflect the trapping of seismic energy within this basin. Plausible scenarios produce predominantly 5-sec wave trains with greater than 30 cm/sec sustained ground-motion amplitude with greater than 30 sec duration within the Evergreen Basin.

Earthquakes and aseismic creep associated with growing fault-related folds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, C. C.; Johnson, K. M.

2017-12-01

Blind thrust faults overlain by growing anticlinal folds pose a seismic risk to many urban centers in the world. A large body of research has focused on using fold and growth strata geometry to infer the rate of slip on the causative fault and the distribution of off-fault deformation. However, because we have had few recorded large earthquakes on blind faults underlying folds, it remains unclear how much of the folding occurs during large earthquakes or during the interseismic period accommodated by aseismic creep. Numerous kinematic and mechanical models as well as field observations demonstrate that flexural slip between sedimentary layering is an important mechanism of fault-related folding. In this study, we run boundary element models of flexural-slip fault-related folding to examine the extent to which energy is released seismically or aseismically throughout the evolution of the fold and fault. We assume a fault imbedded in viscoelastic mechanical layering under frictional contact. We assign depth-dependent frictional properties and adopt a rate-state friction formulation to simulate slip over time. We find that in many cases, a large percentage (greater than 50%) of fold growth is accomplished by aseismic creep at bedding and fault contacts. The largest earthquakes tend to occur on the fault, but a significant portion of the seismicity is distributed across bedding contacts through the fold. We are currently working to quantify these results using a large number of simulations with various fold and fault geometries. Result outputs include location, duration, and magnitude of events. As more simulations are completed, these results from different fold and fault geometries will provide insight into how much folding occurs from these slip events. Generalizations from these simulations can be compared with observations of active fault-related folds and used in the future to inform seismic hazard studies.

UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California's complex fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward H.; ,

2015-01-01

With innovations, fresh data, and lessons learned from recent earthquakes, scientists have developed a new earthquake forecast model for California, a region under constant threat from potentially damaging events. The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF" (http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Overall the results confirm previous findings, but with some significant changes because of model improvements. For example, compared to the previous forecast (Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 2), the likelihood of moderate-sized earthquakes (magnitude 6.5 to 7.5) is lower, whereas that of larger events is higher. This is because of the inclusion of multifault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The public-safety implications of this and other model improvements depend on several factors, including site location and type of structure (for example, family dwelling compared to a long-span bridge). Building codes, earthquake insurance products, emergency plans, and other risk-mitigation efforts will be updated accordingly. This model also serves as a reminder that damaging earthquakes are inevitable for California. Fortunately, there are many simple steps residents can take to protect lives and property.

Finite element models of earthquake cycles in mature strike-slip fault zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, John Charles

The research presented in this dissertation is on the subject of strike-slip earthquakes and the stresses that build and release in the Earth's crust during earthquake cycles. Numerical models of these cycles in a layered elastic/viscoelastic crust are produced using the finite element method. A fault that alternately sticks and slips poses a particularly challenging problem for numerical implementation, and a new contact element dubbed the "Velcro" element was developed to address this problem (Appendix A). Additionally, the finite element code used in this study was bench-marked against analytical solutions for some simplified problems (Chapter 2), and the resolving power was tested for the fault region of the models (Appendix B). With the modeling method thus developed, there are two main questions posed. First, in Chapter 3, the effect of a finite-width shear zone is considered. By defining a viscoelastic shear zone beneath a periodically slipping fault, it is found that shear stress concentrates at the edges of the shear zone and thus causes the stress tensor to rotate into non-Andersonian orientations. Several methods are used to examine the stress patterns, including the plunge angles of the principal stresses and a new method that plots the stress tensor in a manner analogous to seismic focal mechanism diagrams. In Chapter 4, a simple San Andreas-like model is constructed, consisting of two great earthquake producing faults separated by a freely-slipping shorter fault. The model inputs of lower crustal viscosity, fault separation distance, and relative breaking strengths are examined for their effect on fault communication. It is found that with a lower crustal viscosity of 1018 Pa s (in the lower range of estimates for California), the two faults tend to synchronize their earthquake cycles, even in the cases where the faults have asymmetric breaking strengths. These models imply that postseismic stress transfer over hundreds of kilometers may play a

Seismicity in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes and implications for large near-trench earthquake faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obana, Koichiro; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fujie, Gou; Kodaira, Shuichi; Kaiho, Yuka; Yamamoto, Yojiro; Miura, Seiichi

2018-03-01

In the northern part of the Japan Trench, the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake (Mw 8.4), an outer-trench, normal-faulting earthquake, occurred 37 yr after the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake (Mw 8.0), a shallow, near-trench, plate-interface rupture. Tsunamis generated by both earthquakes caused severe damage along the Sanriku coast. Precise locations of earthquakes in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes have not previously been obtained because they occurred at considerable distances from the coast in deep water beyond the maximum operational depth of conventional ocean bottom seismographs (OBSs). In 2015, we incorporated OBSs designed for operation in deep water (ultradeep OBSs) in an OBS array during two months of seismic observations in the source areas of the 1896 and 1933 Sanriku earthquakes to investigate the relationship of seismicity there to outer-rise normal-faulting earthquakes and near-trench tsunami earthquakes. Our analysis showed that seismicity during our observation period occurred along three roughly linear trench-parallel trends in the outer-trench region. Seismic activity along these trends likely corresponds to aftershocks of the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake and the Mw 7.4 normal-faulting earthquake that occurred 40 min after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Furthermore, changes of the clarity of reflections from the oceanic Moho on seismic reflection profiles and low-velocity anomalies within the oceanic mantle were observed near the linear trends of the seismicity. The focal mechanisms we determined indicate that an extensional stress regime extends to about 40 km depth, below which the stress regime is compressional. These observations suggest that rupture during the 1933 Showa-Sanriku earthquake did not extend to the base of the oceanic lithosphere and that compound rupture of multiple or segmented faults is a more plausible explanation for that earthquake. The source area of the 1896 Meiji-Sanriku tsunami earthquake is

Methodology for earthquake rupture rate estimates of fault networks: example for the western Corinth rift, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Lyon-Caen, Hélène; Boiselet, Aurélien

2017-10-01

Modeling the seismic potential of active faults is a fundamental step of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). An accurate estimation of the rate of earthquakes on the faults is necessary in order to obtain the probability of exceedance of a given ground motion. Most PSHA studies consider faults as independent structures and neglect the possibility of multiple faults or fault segments rupturing simultaneously (fault-to-fault, FtF, ruptures). The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast version 3 (UCERF-3) model takes into account this possibility by considering a system-level approach rather than an individual-fault-level approach using the geological, seismological and geodetical information to invert the earthquake rates. In many places of the world seismological and geodetical information along fault networks is often not well constrained. There is therefore a need to propose a methodology relying on geological information alone to compute earthquake rates of the faults in the network. In the proposed methodology, a simple distance criteria is used to define FtF ruptures and consider single faults or FtF ruptures as an aleatory uncertainty, similarly to UCERF-3. Rates of earthquakes on faults are then computed following two constraints: the magnitude frequency distribution (MFD) of earthquakes in the fault system as a whole must follow an a priori chosen shape and the rate of earthquakes on each fault is determined by the specific slip rate of each segment depending on the possible FtF ruptures. The modeled earthquake rates are then compared to the available independent data (geodetical, seismological and paleoseismological data) in order to weight different hypothesis explored in a logic tree.The methodology is tested on the western Corinth rift (WCR), Greece, where recent advancements have been made in the understanding of the geological slip rates of the complex network of normal faults which are accommodating the ˜ 15 mm yr-1 north

HOT Faults", Fault Organization, and the Occurrence of the Largest Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, J. M.; Hillers, G.; Archuleta, R. J.

2006-12-01

We apply the concept of "Highly Optimized Tolerance" (HOT) for the investigation of spatio-temporal seismicity evolution, in particular mechanisms associated with largest earthquakes. HOT provides a framework for investigating both qualitative and quantitative features of complex feedback systems that are far from equilibrium and punctuated by rare, catastrophic events. In HOT, robustness trade-offs lead to complexity and power laws in systems that are coupled to evolving environments. HOT was originally inspired by biology and engineering, where systems are internally very highly structured, through biological evolution or deliberate design, and perform in an optimum manner despite fluctuations in their surroundings. Though faults and fault systems are not designed in ways comparable to biological and engineered structures, feedback processes are responsible in a conceptually comparable way for the development, evolution and maintenance of younger fault structures and primary slip surfaces of mature faults, respectively. Hence, in geophysical applications the "optimization" approach is perhaps more aptly replaced by "organization", reflecting the distinction between HOT and random, disorganized configurations, and highlighting the importance of structured interdependencies that evolve via feedback among and between different spatial and temporal scales. Expressed in the terminology of the HOT concept, mature faults represent a configuration optimally organized for the release of strain energy; whereas immature, more heterogeneous fault networks represent intermittent, suboptimal systems that are regularized towards structural simplicity and the ability to generate large earthquakes more easily. We discuss fault structure and associated seismic response pattern within the HOT concept, and outline fundamental differences between this novel interpretation to more orthodox viewpoints like the criticality concept. The discussion is flanked by numerical simulations of a

Significant earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system, Hispaniola, 1500-2010: Implications for seismic hazard

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bakun, William H.; Flores, Claudia H.; ten Brink, Uri S.

2012-01-01

Historical records indicate frequent seismic activity along the north-east Caribbean plate boundary over the past 500 years, particularly on the island of Hispaniola. We use accounts of historical earthquakes to assign intensities and the intensity assignments for the 2010 Haiti earthquakes to derive an intensity attenuation relation for Hispaniola. The intensity assignments and the attenuation relation are used in a grid search to find source locations and magnitudes that best fit the intensity assignments. Here we describe a sequence of devastating earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system in the eighteenth century. An intensity magnitude MI 6.6 earthquake in 1701 occurred near the location of the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the accounts of the shaking in the 1701 earthquake are similar to those of the 2010 earthquake. A series of large earthquakes migrating from east to west started with the 18 October 1751 MI 7.4–7.5 earthquake, probably located near the eastern end of the fault in the Dominican Republic, followed by the 21 November 1751 MI 6.6 earthquake near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and the 3 June 1770 MI 7.5 earthquake west of the 2010 earthquake rupture. The 2010 Haiti earthquake may mark the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes on the Enriquillo fault system after 240 years of seismic quiescence. The entire Enriquillo fault system appears to be seismically active; Haiti and the Dominican Republic should prepare for future devastating earthquakes.

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults.

PubMed

McGuire, Jeffrey J; Boettcher, Margaret S; Jordan, Thomas H

2005-03-24

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Marion Y.; Bhat, Harsha S.

2018-05-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Dynamic Evolution Of Off-Fault Medium During An Earthquake: A Micromechanics Based Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, M. Y.; Bhat, H. S.

2017-12-01

Geophysical observations show a dramatic drop of seismic wave speeds in the shallow off-fault medium following earthquake ruptures. Seismic ruptures generate, or reactivate, damage around faults that alter the constitutive response of the surrounding medium, which in turn modifies the earthquake itself, the seismic radiation, and the near-fault ground motion. We present a micromechanics based constitutive model that accounts for dynamic evolution of elastic moduli at high-strain rates. We consider 2D in-plane models, with a 1D right lateral fault featuring slip-weakening friction law. The two scenarios studied here assume uniform initial off-fault damage and an observationally motivated exponential decay of initial damage with fault normal distance. Both scenarios produce dynamic damage that is consistent with geological observations. A small difference in initial damage actively impacts the final damage pattern. The second numerical experiment, in particular, highlights the complex feedback that exists between the evolving medium and the seismic event. We show that there is a unique off-fault damage pattern associated with supershear transition of an earthquake rupture that could be potentially seen as a geological signature of this transition. These scenarios presented here underline the importance of incorporating the complex structure of fault zone systems in dynamic models of earthquakes.

Spatiotemporal earthquake clusters along the North Anatolian fault zone offshore Istanbul

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bulut, Fatih; Ellsworth, William L.; Bohnhoff, Marco; Aktar, Mustafa; Dresen, Georg

2011-01-01

We investigate earthquakes with similar waveforms in order to characterize spatiotemporal microseismicity clusters within the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) in northwest Turkey along the transition between the 1999 ??zmit rupture zone and the Marmara Sea seismic gap. Earthquakes within distinct activity clusters are relocated with cross-correlation derived relative travel times using the double difference method. The spatiotemporal distribution of micro earthquakes within individual clusters is resolved with relative location accuracy comparable to or better than the source size. High-precision relative hypocenters define the geometry of individual fault patches, permitting a better understanding of fault kinematics and their role in local-scale seismotectonics along the region of interest. Temporal seismic sequences observed in the eastern Sea of Marmara region suggest progressive failure of mostly nonoverlapping areas on adjacent fault patches and systematic migration of microearthquakes within clusters during the progressive failure of neighboring fault patches. The temporal distributions of magnitudes as well as the number of events follow swarmlike behavior rather than a mainshock/aftershock pattern.

Surface and Subsurface Fault Displacements from the September 2010 Darfield (Canterbury) Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyers, B.; Furlong, K. P.; Hayes, G. P.; Herman, M. W.; Quigley, M.

2012-12-01

On September 3, 2010 a Magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck near Darfield, New Zealand. This was to be the first earthquake in an ongoing, damaging sequence near the city of Christchurch. The earthquake produced a surface rupture with measurable offsets of up to 5.3m along a 30km surface fault system. The spatial pattern of slip during this rupture has been determined by various groups using a range of approaches and several independent data sets. Surface fault rupture was measured in the field and fault slip at depth has been inferred from a seismologic finite fault model (FFM) and various geodetic observations including GPS and InSAR. Here we compare the observed segmented surface displacements with fault slip inferred from the other data. Measurements of the surface rupture show segmented faulting consistent with subsurface slip in the FFM. In the FFM, the main slip patch near the hypocenter can be directly correlated to the region of maximum surface displacement. The FFM and some evidence in the InSAR data also indicate that the Greendale fault system, the structure responsible for the bulk of the rupture, continues at depth closer towards Christchurch than is seen in surface rupture patterns. There is an additional 20km long patch with up to 3m of modeled slip seen in the eastern end of the inverted fault, offset to the south from the Greendale fault trace. This additional fault segment is consistent with a zone of aftershock activity of the main Darfield event, and with local patterns of strong motion. It thus appears that slip recorded at the surface does not describe the entire fault system. This eastward extension of the September rupture means that there is only a short segment of unruptured crust remaining along the entire fault system involved in the Canterbury earthquake sequence.

Fluid-driven normal faulting earthquake sequences in the Taiwan orogen

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ling-hua; Rau, Ruey-Juin; Lee, En-Jui

2017-04-01

Seismicity in the Central Range of Taiwan shows normal faulting mechanisms with T-axes directing NE, subparallel to the strike of the mountain belt. We analyze earthquake sequences occurred within 2012-2015 in the Nanshan area of northern Taiwan which indicating swarm behavior and migration characteristics. We select events larger than 2.0 from Central Weather Bureau catalog and use the double-difference relocation program hypoDD with waveform cross-correlation in the Nanshan area. We obtained a final count of 1406 (95%) relocated earthquakes. Moreover, we compute focal mechanisms using USGS program HASH by P-wave first motion and S/P ratio picking and 114 fault plane solutions with M 3.0-5.87 were determined. To test for fluid diffusion, we model seismicity using the equation of Shapiro et al. (1997) by fitting earthquake diffusing rate D during the migration period. According to the relocation result, seismicity in the Taiwan orogenic belt present mostly N25E orientation parallel to the mountain belt with the same direction of the tension axis. In addition, another seismic fracture depicted by seismicity rotated 35 degree counterclockwise to the NW direction. Nearly all focal mechanisms are normal fault type. In the Nanshan area, events show N10W distribution with a focal depth range from 5-12 km and illustrate fault plane dipping about 45-60 degree to SW. Three months before the M 5.87 mainshock which occurred in March, 2013, there were some foreshock events occurred in the shallow part of the fault plane of the mainshock. Half a year following the mainshock, earthquakes migrated to the north and south, respectively with processes matched the diffusion model at a rate of 0.2-0.6 m2/s. This migration pattern and diffusion rate offer an evidence of 'fluid-driven' process in the fault zone. We also find the upward migration of earthquakes in the mainshock source region. These phenomena are likely caused by the opening of the permeable conduit due to the M 5

Influence of the Saros Fault on the Periodicity of Earthquake Activity (Gelibolu Peninsula, NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

İpek Gültekin, Derya; Karakoç, Okan; Şahin, Murat; Elitez, İrem; Yaltırak, Cenk

2017-04-01

Active faults are vital in terms of settlement and socio-economic aspects of a region. For this reason, it is important to determine the characteristics and impact areas of active faults correctly. The Marmara region is a tectonically active region located in the northwestern Anatolia. The northern part of the North Anatolian Fault, which was named the Saros Fault, passes through the westernmost part of this region. The Saros Fault is a 52 km-long and NE-SW-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault. In this study, the seismicity of the Gelibolu Peninsula has been examined in the light of historical records. When considering the historical records, 545, 986, 1354 and 1756 earthquakes led to damage on the settlements close to the Saros Fault. The dates of historical earthquakes were calculated by integration of previously published empirical formulas, year difference between events and velocity of GPS vectors. The acceleration map (PGA MAPS) of the region has been produced by taking into account these earthquake magnitudes, fault geometry and geology of the region, and consequently, it was seen that these maps overlap quite well with the damage records of historical earthquakes. Considering the periodicity of the Saros Fault, which majorly controls the seismicity in the region, it is aimed to find an answer to the question "how does a recent earthquake affect the region?" by the help of historical earthquake records and PGA modelling. In conclusion, our data showed that PGA values are dominant in the northern side of the Gelibolu Peninsula and this region may be affected by a magnitude 7.3 earthquake.

Modeling earthquake magnitudes from injection-induced seismicity on rough faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, J.; Dunham, E. M.; Segall, P.

2017-12-01

It is an open question whether perturbations to the in-situ stress field due to fluid injection affect the magnitudes of induced earthquakes. It has been suggested that characteristics such as the total injected fluid volume control the size of induced events (e.g., Baisch et al., 2010; Shapiro et al., 2011). On the other hand, Van der Elst et al. (2016) argue that the size distribution of induced earthquakes follows Gutenberg-Richter, the same as tectonic events. Numerical simulations support the idea that ruptures nucleating inside regions with high shear-to-effective normal stress ratio may not propagate into regions with lower stress (Dieterich et al., 2015; Schmitt et al., 2015), however, these calculations are done on geometrically smooth faults. Fang & Dunham (2013) show that rupture length on geometrically rough faults is variable, but strongly dependent on background shear/effective normal stress. In this study, we use a 2-D elasto-dynamic rupture simulator that includes rough fault geometry and off-fault plasticity (Dunham et al., 2011) to simulate earthquake ruptures under realistic conditions. We consider aggregate results for faults with and without stress perturbations due to fluid injection. We model a uniform far-field background stress (with local perturbations around the fault due to geometry), superimpose a poroelastic stress field in the medium due to injection, and compute the effective stress on the fault as inputs to the rupture simulator. Preliminary results indicate that even minor stress perturbations on the fault due to injection can have a significant impact on the resulting distribution of rupture lengths, but individual results are highly dependent on the details of the local stress perturbations on the fault due to geometric roughness.

Synthetic Earthquake Statistics From Physical Fault Models for the Lower Rhine Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brietzke, G. B.; Hainzl, S.; Zöller, G.

2012-04-01

As of today, seismic risk and hazard estimates mostly use pure empirical, stochastic models of earthquake fault systems tuned specifically to the vulnerable areas of interest. Although such models allow for reasonable risk estimates they fail to provide a link between the observed seismicity and the underlying physical processes. Solving a state-of-the-art fully dynamic description set of all relevant physical processes related to earthquake fault systems is likely not useful since it comes with a large number of degrees of freedom, poor constraints on its model parameters and a huge computational effort. Here, quasi-static and quasi-dynamic physical fault simulators provide a compromise between physical completeness and computational affordability and aim at providing a link between basic physical concepts and statistics of seismicity. Within the framework of quasi-static and quasi-dynamic earthquake simulators we investigate a model of the Lower Rhine Embayment (LRE) that is based upon seismological and geological data. We present and discuss statistics of the spatio-temporal behavior of generated synthetic earthquake catalogs with respect to simplification (e.g. simple two-fault cases) as well as to complication (e.g. hidden faults, geometric complexity, heterogeneities of constitutive parameters).

It's Our Fault: better defining earthquake risk in Wellington, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dissen, R.; Brackley, H. L.; Francois-Holden, C.

2012-12-01

The Wellington region, home of New Zealand's capital city, is cut by a number of major right-lateral strike slip faults, and is underlain by the currently locked west-dipping subduction interface between the down going Pacific Plate, and the over-riding Australian Plate. In its short historic period (ca. 160 years), the region has been impacted by large earthquakes on the strike-slip faults, but has yet to bear the brunt of a subduction interface rupture directly beneath the capital city. It's Our Fault is a comprehensive study of Wellington's earthquake risk. Its objective is to position the capital city of New Zealand to become more resilient through an encompassing study of the likelihood of large earthquakes, and the effects and impacts of these earthquakes on humans and the built environment. It's Our Fault is jointly funded by New Zealand's Earthquake Commission, Accident Compensation Corporation, Wellington City Council, Wellington Region Emergency Management Group, Greater Wellington Regional Council, and Natural Hazards Research Platform. The programme has been running for six years, and key results to date include better definition and constraints on: 1) location, size, timing, and likelihood of large earthquakes on the active faults closest to Wellington; 2) earthquake size and ground shaking characterization of a representative suite of subduction interface rupture scenarios under Wellington; 3) stress interactions between these faults; 4) geological, geotechnical, and geophysical parameterisation of the near-surface sediments and basin geometry in Wellington City and the Hutt Valley; and 5) characterisation of earthquake ground shaking behaviour in these two urban areas in terms of subsoil classes specified in the NZ Structural Design Standard. The above investigations are already supporting measures aimed at risk reduction, and collectively they will facilitate identification of additional actions that will have the greatest benefit towards further

The 2015 M w 6.0 Mt. Kinabalu earthquake: an infrequent fault rupture within the Crocker fault system of East Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yu; Wei, Shengji; Wang, Xin; Lindsey, Eric O.; Tongkul, Felix; Tapponnier, Paul; Bradley, Kyle; Chan, Chung-Han; Hill, Emma M.; Sieh, Kerry

2017-12-01

The M w 6.0 Mt. Kinabalu earthquake of 2015 was a complete (and deadly) surprise, because it occurred well away from the nearest plate boundary in a region of very low historical seismicity. Our seismological, space geodetic, geomorphological, and field investigations show that the earthquake resulted from rupture of a northwest-dipping normal fault that did not reach the surface. Its unilateral rupture was almost directly beneath 4000-m-high Mt. Kinabalu and triggered widespread slope failures on steep mountainous slopes, which included rockfalls that killed 18 hikers. Our seismological and morphotectonic analyses suggest that the rupture occurred on a normal fault that splays upwards off of the previously identified normal Marakau fault. Our mapping of tectonic landforms reveals that these faults are part of a 200-km-long system of normal faults that traverse the eastern side of the Crocker Range, parallel to Sabah's northwestern coastline. Although the tectonic reason for this active normal fault system remains unclear, the lengths of the longest fault segments suggest that they are capable of generating magnitude 7 earthquakes. Such large earthquakes must occur very rarely, though, given the hitherto undetectable geodetic rates of active tectonic deformation across the region.

Cumulative co-seismic fault damage and feedbacks on earthquake rupture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, T. M.; Aben, F. M.; Ostermeijer, G.; Rockwell, T. K.; Doan, M. L.

2017-12-01

The importance of the damage zone in the faulting and earthquake process is widely recognized, but our understanding of how damage zones are created, what their properties are, and how they feed back into the seismic cycle, is remarkably poorly known. Firstly, damaged rocks have reduced elastic moduli, cohesion and yield strength, which can cause attenuation and potentially non-linear wave propagation effects during ruptures. Secondly, damaged fault rocks are generally more permeable than intact rocks, and hence play a key role in the migration of fluids in and around fault zones over the seismic cycle. Finally, the dynamic generation of damage as the earthquake propagates can itself influence the dynamics of rupture propagation, by increasing the amount of energy dissipation, decreasing the rupture velocity, modifying the size of the earthquake, changing the efficiency of weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurisation of pore fluids, and even generating seismic waves itself . All of these effects imply that a feedback exists between the damage imparted immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stages of fault slip, and the effects of that damage on subsequent ruptures dynamics. In recent years, much debate has been sparked by the identification of so-called `pulverized rocks' described on various crustal-scale faults, a type of intensely damaged fault rock which has undergone minimal shear strain, and the occurrence of which has been linked to damage induced by transient high strain-rate stress perturbations during earthquake rupture. Damage induced by such transient stresses, whether compressional or tensional, likely constitute heterogeneous modulations of the remote stresses that will impart significant changes on the strength, elastic and fluid flow properties of a fault zone immediately after rupture propagation, at the early stage of fault slip. In this contribution, we will demonstrate laboratory and field examples of two dynamic mechanisms

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE PAGES

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

2016-12-28

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Delorey, Andrew A.; van der Elst, Nicholas J.; Johnson, Paul Allan

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering ofmore » earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Lastly, our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.« less

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Delorey, Andrew; Van Der Elst, Nicholas; Johnson, Paul

2017-01-01

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

The 7.9 Denali Fault Earthquake: Damage to Structures and Lifelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, T.; Hreinsdöttir, S.; Larsen, C.; Estes, S.

2002-12-01

In the early afternoon of Sunday, November 3rd, the residents of many interior Alaska towns were shaken up by a magnitude 7.9 earthquake. The shaking lasted an average of three minutes and when it stopped, nearly 300 km of the Denali Fault had ruptured. In the hours that followed, the Alaska Earthquake Information Center (AEIC) fielded reports of structural damage from Cantwell to Tok and other earthquake effects as far away as Louisiana. Upon investigation, the most severe effects were found in the village of Mentasta where basic utilities were interrupted and the school and several houses suffered major damage. Almost 3000 reports submitted to a community internet intensity map show a maximum Mercalli intensity VIII along the eastern end of the rupture area. The Richardson and Parks Highways, two main north-south thoroughfares in Alaska, both buckled and split as a result of the fault rupture. Traffic was stopped for a few hours while repairs were made. Between the Richardson Highway the Tok Cutoff, a section of the Glenn Highway that connects Tok and Glennallen, the maximum offsets on the Denali Fault were observed. Designed to withstand a magnitude 8.5 earthquake at the Denali Fault crossing, the 800-mile long Trans-Alaska Pipeline suffered relatively minor damage. According to Alyeska Pipeline Service Company press releases, the pipeline was shut down shortly after the earthquake occurred. Repairs to pipeline supports and engineering evaluations began immediately thereafter, and oil began flowing through the pipeline Thursday, November 7th . Through it all, the AEIC has collected and archived many photographs, emails, and eyewitness accounts of those who experienced the destruction firsthand. We will detail the effects that the M7.9 Denali Fault earthquake had from near and far.

Earthquakes and faults in the San Francisco Bay area (1970-2003)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Calzia, James P.; Walter, Stephen R.; Wong, Florence L.; Saucedo, George J.

2004-01-01

The map depicts both active and inactive faults and earthquakes magnitude 1.5 to 7.0 in the greater San Francisco Bay area. Twenty-two earthquakes magnitude 5.0 and greater are indicated on the map and listed chronologically in an accompanying table. The data are compiled from records from 1970-2003. The bathymetry was generated from a digital version of NOAA maps and hydrogeographic data for San Francisco Bay. Elevation data are from the USGS National Elevation Database. Landsat satellite image is from seven Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes. Fault data are reproduced with permission from the California Geological Survey. The earthquake data are from the Northern California Earthquake Catalog.

Static stress transfer during the 2002 Nenana Mountain-Denali Fault, Alaska, earthquake sequence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, G.; Ji, C.

2003-01-01

On 23 October 2002, the Mw 6.7 Nenana Mountain earthquake occurred in central Alaska. It was followed on 3 November 2002 by the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault mainshock, the largest strike-slip earthquake to occur in North America during the past 150 years. We have modeled static Coulomb stress transfer effects during this sequence. We find that the Nenana Mountain foreshock transferred 30-50 kPa of Coulomb stress to the hypocentral region of the Denali Fault mainshock, encouraging its occurrence. We also find that the two main earthquakes together transferred more than 400 kPa of Coulomb stress to the Cross Creek segment of the Totschunda fault system and to the Denali fault southeast of the mainshock rupture, and up to 80 kPa to the Denali fault west of the Nenana Mountain rupture. Other major faults in the region experienced much smaller static Coulomb stress changes.

Near-surface versus fault zone damage following the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake: Observation and simulation of repeating earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Furumura, Takashi; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

We observe crustal damage and its subsequent recovery caused by the 1999 M7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan. Analysis of repeating earthquakes in Hualien region, ~70 km east of the Chi-Chi earthquake, shows a remarkable change in wave propagation beginning in the year 2000, revealing damage within the fault zone and distributed across the near surface. We use moving window cross correlation to identify a dramatic decrease in the waveform similarity and delays in the S wave coda. The maximum delay is up to 59 ms, corresponding to a 7.6% velocity decrease averaged over the wave propagation path. The waveform changes on either side of the fault are distinct. They occur in different parts of the waveforms, affect different frequencies, and the size of the velocity reductions is different. Using a finite difference method, we simulate the effect of postseismic changes in the wavefield by introducing S wave velocity anomaly in the fault zone and near the surface. The models that best fit the observations point to pervasive damage in the near surface and deep, along-fault damage at the time of the Chi-Chi earthquake. The footwall stations show the combined effect of near-surface and the fault zone damage, where the velocity reduction (2–7%) is twofold to threefold greater than the fault zone damage observed in the hanging wall stations. The physical models obtained here allow us to monitor the temporal evolution and recovering process of the Chi-Chi fault zone damage.

Earthquake behavior of the Enriquillo fault zone, Haiti revealed by interactive terrain visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowgill, E.; Bernardin, T. S.; Oskin, M. E.; Bowles, C. J.; Yikilmaz, M. B.; Kreylos, O.; Elliott, A. J.; Bishop, M. S.; Gold, R. D.; Morelan, A.; Bawden, G. W.; Hamann, B.; Kellogg, L. H.

2010-12-01

The Mw 7.0 January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake ended 240 years of relative quiescence following earthquakes that destroyed Port-au-Prince in 1751 and 1770. We place the 2010 rupture in the context of past earthquakes and future hazards by using remote analysis of airborne LiDAR to observe the topographic expression of active faulting and develop a new conceptual model for the earthquake behavior of the eastern Enriquillo fault zone (EFZ). In this model, the 2010 event occupies a long-lived segment boundary at a stepover within the EFZ separating fault segments that likely ruptured in 1751 and 1770, explaining both past clustering and the lack of 2010 surface rupture. Immediately following the 2010 earthquake, an airborne LiDAR point cloud containing over 2.7 billion point measurements of surface features was collected by the Rochester Inst. of Technology. To analyze these data, we capitalize on the human capacity to visually identify meaningful patterns embedded in noisy data by conducting interactive visual analysis of the entire 66.8 GB Haiti terrain data in a 4-sided, 800 ft3 immersive virtual-reality environment at the UC Davis KeckCAVES using the software tools LiDAR Viewer (to analyze point cloud data) and Crusta (for 3D surficial geologic mapping on DEM data). We discovered and measured landforms displaced by past surface-rupturing earthquakes and remotely characterized the regional fault geometry. Our analysis of the ~50 km long reach of EFZ spanning the 2010 epicenter indicates that geomorphic evidence of active faulting is clearer east of the epicenter than to the west. West of the epicenter, and in the region of the 2010 rupture, the fault is poorly defined along an embayed, low-relief range front, with little evidence of recent surface rupture. In contrast, landform offsets of 6 to 50 m along the reach of the EFZ east of the epicenter and closest to Port-au-Prince attest to repeated recent surface-rupturing earthquakes here. Specifically, we found and

Controls of earthquake faulting style on near field landslide triggering: The role of coseismic slip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tatard, L.; Grasso, J. R.

2013-06-01

compare the spatial distributions of seven databases of landslides triggered by Mw=5.6-7.9 earthquakes, using distances normalized by the earthquake fault length. We show that the normalized landslide distance distributions collapse, i.e., the normalized distance distributions overlap whatever the size of the earthquake, separately for the events associated with dip-slip, buried-faulting earthquakes, and surface-faulting earthquakes. The dip-slip earthquakes triggered landslides at larger normalized distances than the oblique-slip event of Loma Prieta. We further identify that the surface-faulting earthquakes of Wenchuan, Chi-Chi, and Kashmir triggered landslides at normalized distances smaller than the ones expected from their Mw ≥ 7.6 magnitudes. These results support a control of the seismic slip (through amplitude, rake, and surface versus buried slip) on the distances at which landslides are triggered. In terms of coseismic landslide management in mountainous areas, our results allow us to propose distances at which 95 and 75% of landslides will be triggered as a function of the earthquake focal mechanism.

The regional structural setting of the 2008 Wells earthquake and Town Creek Flat Basin: implications for the Wells earthquake fault and adjacent structures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henry, Christopher S.; Colgan, Joseph P.

2011-01-01

The 2008 Wells earthquake occurred on a northeast-striking, southeast-dipping fault that is clearly delineated by the aftershock swarm to a depth of 10-12 km below sea level. However, Cenozoic rocks and structures around Wells primarily record east-west extension along north- to north-northeast-striking, west-dipping normal faults that formed during the middle Miocene. These faults are responsible for the strong eastward tilt of most basins and ranges in the area, including the Town Creek Flat basin (the location of the earthquake) and the adjacent Snake Mountains and western Windermere Hills. These older west-dipping faults are locally overprinted by a younger generation of east-dipping, high-angle normal faults that formed as early as the late Miocene and have remained active into the Quaternary. The most prominent of these east-dipping faults is the set of en-échelon, north-striking faults that bounds the east sides of the Ruby Mountains, East Humboldt Range, and Clover Hill (about 5 km southwest of Wells). The northeastern-most of these faults, the Clover Hill fault, projects northward along strike toward the Snake Mountains and the approximately located surface projection of the Wells earthquake fault as defined by aftershock locations. The Clover Hill fault also projects toward a previously unrecognized, east-facing Quaternary fault scarp and line of springs that appear to mark a significant east-dipping normal fault along the western edge of Town Creek Flat. Both western and eastern projections may be northern continuations of the Clover Hill fault. The Wells earthquake occurred along this east-dipping fault system. Two possible alternatives to rupture of a northern continuation of the Clover Hill fault are that the earthquake fault (1) is antithetic to an active west-dipping fault or (2) reactivated a Mesozoic thrust fault that dips east as a result of tilting by the west-dipping faults along the west side of the Snake Mountains. Both alternatives are

M ≥ 7.0 earthquake recurrence on the San Andreas fault from a stress renewal model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Thomas E.

2006-01-01

 Forecasting M ≥ 7.0 San Andreas fault earthquakes requires an assessment of their expected frequency. I used a three-dimensional finite element model of California to calculate volumetric static stress drops from scenario M ≥ 7.0 earthquakes on three San Andreas fault sections. The ratio of stress drop to tectonic stressing rate derived from geodetic displacements yielded recovery times at points throughout the model volume. Under a renewal model, stress recovery times on ruptured fault planes can be a proxy for earthquake recurrence. I show curves of magnitude versus stress recovery time for three San Andreas fault sections. When stress recovery times were converted to expected M ≥ 7.0 earthquake frequencies, they fit Gutenberg-Richter relationships well matched to observed regional rates of M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes. Thus a stress-balanced model permits large earthquake Gutenberg-Richter behavior on an individual fault segment, though it does not require it. Modeled slip magnitudes and their expected frequencies were consistent with those observed at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site if strict time predictability does not apply to the San Andreas fault.

Study on the Evaluation Method for Fault Displacement: Probabilistic Approach Based on Japanese Earthquake Rupture Data - Principal fault displacements -

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitada, N.; Inoue, N.; Tonagi, M.

2016-12-01

The purpose of Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis (PFDHA) is estimate fault displacement values and its extent of the impact. There are two types of fault displacement related to the earthquake fault: principal fault displacement and distributed fault displacement. Distributed fault displacement should be evaluated in important facilities, such as Nuclear Installations. PFDHA estimates principal fault and distributed fault displacement. For estimation, PFDHA uses distance-displacement functions, which are constructed from field measurement data. We constructed slip distance relation of principal fault displacement based on Japanese strike and reverse slip earthquakes in order to apply to Japan area that of subduction field. However, observed displacement data are sparse, especially reverse faults. Takao et al. (2013) tried to estimate the relation using all type fault systems (reverse fault and strike slip fault). After Takao et al. (2013), several inland earthquakes were occurred in Japan, so in this time, we try to estimate distance-displacement functions each strike slip fault type and reverse fault type especially add new fault displacement data set. To normalized slip function data, several criteria were provided by several researchers. We normalized principal fault displacement data based on several methods and compared slip-distance functions. The normalized by total length of Japanese reverse fault data did not show particular trend slip distance relation. In the case of segmented data, the slip-distance relationship indicated similar trend as strike slip faults. We will also discuss the relation between principal fault displacement distributions with source fault character. According to slip distribution function (Petersen et al., 2011), strike slip fault type shows the ratio of normalized displacement are decreased toward to the edge of fault. However, the data set of Japanese strike slip fault data not so decrease in the end of the fault

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodgers, A. J.

This is the final report for United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) Project 08HQGR0022, entitled “Quantifying Uncertainties in Ground Motion Simulations for Scenario Earthquakes on the HaywardRodgers Creek Fault System Using the USGS 3D Seismic Velocity Model and Realistic Pseudodynamics Ruptures”. Work for this project involved three-dimensional (3D) simulations of ground motions for Hayward Fault (HF) earthquakes. We modeled moderate events on the HF and used them to evaluate the USGS 3D model of the San Francisco Bay Area. We also contributed to ground motions modeling effort for a large suite of scenario earthquakes onmore » the HF. Results were presented at conferences (see appendix) and in one peer-reviewed publication (Aagaard et al., 2010).« less

Mapping apparent stress and energy radiation over fault zones of major earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGarr, A.; Fletcher, Joe B.

2002-01-01

Using published slip models for five major earthquakes, 1979 Imperial Valley, 1989 Loma Prieta, 1992 Landers, 1994 Northridge, and 1995 Kobe, we produce maps of apparent stress and radiated seismic energy over their fault surfaces. The slip models, obtained by inverting seismic and geodetic data, entail the division of the fault surfaces into many subfaults for which the time histories of seismic slip are determined. To estimate the seismic energy radiated by each subfault, we measure the near-fault seismic-energy flux from the time-dependent slip there and then multiply by a function of rupture velocity to obtain the corresponding energy that propagates into the far-field. This function, the ratio of far-field to near-fault energy, is typically less than 1/3, inasmuch as most of the near-fault energy remains near the fault and is associated with permanent earthquake deformation. Adding the energy contributions from all of the subfaults yields an estimate of the total seismic energy, which can be compared with independent energy estimates based on seismic-energy flux measured in the far-field, often at teleseismic distances. Estimates of seismic energy based on slip models are robust, in that different models, for a given earthquake, yield energy estimates that are in close agreement. Moreover, the slip-model estimates of energy are generally in good accord with independent estimates by others, based on regional or teleseismic data. Apparent stress is estimated for each subfault by dividing the corresponding seismic moment into the radiated energy. Distributions of apparent stress over an earthquake fault zone show considerable heterogeneity, with peak values that are typically about double the whole-earthquake values (based on the ratio of seismic energy to seismic moment). The range of apparent stresses estimated for subfaults of the events studied here is similar to the range of apparent stresses for earthquakes in continental settings, with peak values of about

Subduction of thick oceanic plateau and high-angle normal-fault earthquakes intersecting the slab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arai, Ryuta; Kodaira, Shuichi; Yamada, Tomoaki; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Miura, Seiichi; Kaneda, Yoshiyuki; Nishizawa, Azusa; Oikawa, Mitsuhiro

2017-06-01

The role of seamounts on interplate earthquakes has been debated. However, its impact on intraslab deformation is poorly understood. Here we present unexpected evidence for large normal-fault earthquakes intersecting the slab just ahead of a subducting seamount. In 1995, a series of earthquakes with maximum magnitude of 7.1 occurred in northern Ryukyu where oceanic plateaus are subducting. The aftershock distribution shows that conjugate faults with an unusually high dip angle of 70-80° ruptured the entire subducting crust. Seismic reflection images reveal that the plate interface is displaced over 1 km along one of the fault planes of the 1995 events. These results suggest that a lateral variation in slab buoyancy can produce sufficient differential stress leading to near-vertical normal-fault earthquakes within the slab. On the contrary, the upper surface of the seamount (plate interface) may correspond to a weakly coupled region, reflecting the dual effects of seamounts/plateaus on subduction earthquakes.

Pulverization provides a mechanism for the nucleation of earthquakes at low stress on strong faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Felzer, Karen R.

2014-01-01

An earthquake occurs when rock that has been deformed under stress rebounds elastically along a fault plane (Gilbert, 1884; Reid, 1911), radiating seismic waves through the surrounding earth. Rupture along the entire fault surface does not spontaneously occur at the same time, however. Rather the rupture starts in one tiny area, the rupture nucleation zone, and spreads sequentially along the fault. Like a row of dominoes, one bit of rebounding fault triggers the next. This triggering is understood to occur because of the large dynamic stresses at the tip of an active seismic rupture. The importance of these crack tip stresses is a central question in earthquake physics. The crack tip stresses are minimally important, for example, in the time predictable earthquake model (Shimazaki and Nakata, 1980), which holds that prior to rupture stresses are comparable to fault strength in many locations on the future rupture plane, with bits of variation. The stress/strength ratio is highest at some point, which is where the earthquake nucleates. This model does not require any special conditions or processes at the nucleation site; the whole fault is essentially ready for rupture at the same time. The fault tip stresses ensure that the rupture occurs as a single rapid earthquake, but the fact that fault tip stresses are high is not particularly relevant since the stress at most points does not need to be raised by much. Under this model it should technically be possible to forecast earthquakes based on the stress-renewaql concept, or estimates of when the fault as a whole will reach the critical stress level, a practice used in official hazard mapping (Field, 2008). This model also indicates that physical precursors may be present and detectable, since stresses are unusually high over a significant area before a large earthquake.

Paleo-earthquake Analysis from the Morphologic Features of Unconsolidated-sediment Fault Scarp: An Example from Dushanzi Thrust Fault in the Northern Tianshan, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Z.; He, H.

2016-12-01

Fault scarp is important specific tectonic landform caused by surface-rupture earthquake. The morphology of the fault scarp in unconsolidated sediment could evolve in a predictable, time-dependent diffusion model. As a result, the investigation of fault-generated fault scarps is a prevalent technique used to study fault activity, geomorphic evolution, and the recurrence of faulting events. Addition to obtainment of cumulative displacement, gradient changes, i.e. slope breaks, in the morphology of fault scarps could indicate multiple rupture events along an active fault. In this study, we exacted a large set of densely spaced topographic profiles across fault scarp from LiDAR-derive DEM to detect subtle changes in the fault scarp geometry at the Dushanzi trust fault in the Northern Tianshan, China. Several slope breaks in topographic profiles can be identified, which may represent repeated rupture at the investigated fault. The number of paleo-earthquakes derived from our analysis is 4-3, well in agreement with the investigation results from the paleoseismological trenches. Statistical analysis results show that the scarp height of fault scarp with one slope break is 0.75±0.12 (mean value ±1 standard deviation) m representing the last incremental displacement during earthquakes; the height of fault scarp with two slope breaks is 1.86±0.32 m, and the height of fault scarp with three-four slope break is 6.45±1.44 m. Our approach enables us to obtain paleo-earthquake information from geomorphological analysis of fault scarps, and to assess the multiple rupture history of a complex fault system.

Examining Structural Controls on Earthquake Rupture Dynamics Along the San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, J. J.; Ben-Zion, Y.

2002-12-01

Recent numerical simulations of dynamic rupture [Andrews and Ben-Zion, 1997; Harris and Day, 1997] have confirmed earlier analytical results [Weertman, 1980; Adams, 1995] that a contrast in elastic properties between the two sides of a fault will generate an interaction between the normal stress and fault slip that is not present in a homogeneous medium. It has been shown that for a range of frictional parameters and initial conditions, this interaction produces a statistical preference for unilateral rupture propagation in the direction of slip of the more compliant medium [Ben-Zion and Andrews, 1998; Cochard and Rice, 2000; Ben-Zion and Huang 2002]. Thus, the directivity of earthquake ruptures on large faults with well-developed material interfaces may be controlled by material contrasts of the rocks within and across the fault zone. One of the largest known velocity contrasts across a major crustal fault occurs along the Bear Valley section of the San Andreas where high velocity materials on the SW side (P-velocity >5 km/s) are juxtaposed with low-velocity material on the NE side (P-velocity <4 km/s) down to a depth of about 4 km with a less dramatic contrast continuing to about 8 km [Thurber et al., 1997]. This boundary is strong enough to generate significant head-waves refracted along it that are recorded as the first arrivals at stations close to the fault on the NE side [McNally and McEvilly, 1977]. Rubin and Gillard [2000] and Rubin [2002] relocated the events in this region using NCSN waveform data and found that more than twice as many immediate aftershocks to small earthquakes occurred to the NW of the mainshock as to the SE, which they interpreted as being consistent with a preferred rupture direction to the SE. Their interpretation that aftershocks to microearthquakes occur preferentially in the direction opposite of rupture propagation has not been directly tested and is inconsistent with observations from moderate [Fletcher and Spudich, 1998] and

Delineating Concealed Faults within Cogdell Oil Field via Earthquake Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiken, C.; Walter, J. I.; Brudzinski, M.; Skoumal, R.; Savvaidis, A.; Frohlich, C.; Borgfeldt, T.; Dotray, P.

2016-12-01

Cogdell oil field, located within the Permian Basin of western Texas, has experienced several earthquakes ranging from magnitude 1.7 to 4.6, most of which were recorded since 2006. Using the Earthscope USArray, Gan and Frohlich [2013] relocated some of these events and found a positive correlation in the timing of increased earthquake activity and increased CO2 injection volume. However, focal depths of these earthquakes are unknown due to 70 km station spacing of the USArray. Accurate focal depths as well as new detections can delineate subsurface faults and establish whether earthquakes are occurring in the shallow sediments or in the deeper basement. To delineate subsurface fault(s) in this region, we first detect earthquakes not currently listed in the USGS catalog by applying continuous waveform-template matching algorithms to multiple seismic data sets. We utilize seismic data spanning the time frame of 2006 to 2016 - which includes data from the U.S. Geological Survey Global Seismographic Network, the USArray, and the Sweetwater, TX broadband and nodal array located 20-40 km away. The catalog of earthquakes enhanced by template matching reveals events that were well recorded by the large-N Sweetwater array, so we are experimenting with strategies for optimizing template matching using different configurations of many stations. Since earthquake activity in the Cogdell oil field is on-going (a magnitude 2.6 occurred on May 29, 2016), a temporary deployment of TexNet seismometers has been planned for the immediate vicinity of Cogdell oil field in August 2016. Results on focal depths and detection of small magnitude events are pending this small local network deployment.

Surface faults on Montague Island associated with the 1964 Alaska earthquake: Chapter G in The Alaska earthquake, March 27, 1964: regional effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plafter, George

1967-01-01

Two reverse faults on southwestern Montague Island in Prince William Sound were reactivated during the earthquake of March 27, 1964. New fault scarps, fissures, cracks, and flexures appeared in bedrock and unconsolidated surficial deposits along or near the fault traces. Average strike of the faults is between N. 37° E. and N. 47° E.; they dip northwest at angles ranging from 50° to 85°. The dominant motion was dip slip; the blocks northwest of the reactivated faults were relatively upthrown, and both blocks were upthrown relative to sea level. No other earthquake faults have been found on land. The Patton Bay fault on land is a complex system of en echelon strands marked by a series of spectacular landslides along the scarp and (or) by a zone of fissures and flexures on the upthrown block that locally is as much as 3,000 feet wide. The fault can be traced on land for 22 miles, and it has been mapped on the sea floor to the southwest of Montague Island an additional 17 miles. The maximum measured vertical component of slip is 20 to 23 feet and the maximum indicated dip slip is about 26 feet. A left-lateral strike-slip component of less than 2 feet occurs near the southern end of the fault on land where its strike changes from northeast to north. Indirect evidence from the seismic sea waves and aftershocks associated with the earthquake, and from the distribution of submarine scarps, suggests that the faulting on and near Montague Island occurred at the northeastern end of a reactivated submarine fault system that may extend discontinuously for more than 300 miles from Montague Island to the area offshore of the southeast coast of Kodiak Island. The Hanning Bay fault is a minor rupture only 4 miles long that is marked by an exceptionally well defined almost continuous scarp. The maximum measured vertical component of slip is 16⅓ feet near the midpoint, and the indicated dip slip is about 20 feet. There is a maximum left-lateral strike-slip component of one

Recurrent Holocene movement on the Susitna Glacier Thrust Fault: The structure that initiated the Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, central Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Personius, Stephen; Crone, Anthony J.; Burns, Patricia A.; Reitman, Nadine G.

2017-01-01

We conducted a trench investigation and analyzed pre‐ and postearthquake topography to determine the timing and size of prehistoric surface ruptures on the Susitna Glacier fault (SGF), the thrust fault that initiated the 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali fault earthquake sequence in central Alaska. In two of our three hand‐excavated trenches, we found clear evidence for a single pre‐2002 earthquake (penultimate earthquake [PE]) and determined an age of 2210±420  cal. B.P. (2σ) for this event. We used structure‐from‐motion software to create a pre‐2002‐earthquake digital surface model (DSM) from 1:62,800‐scale aerial photography taken in 1980 and compared this DSM with postearthquake 5‐m/pixel Interferometric Synthetic Aperature Radar topography taken in 2010. Topographic profiles measured from the pre‐earthquake DSM show features that we interpret as fault and fold scarps. These landforms were about the same size as those formed in 2002, so we infer that the PE was similar in size to the initial (Mw 7.2) subevent of the 2002 sequence. A recurrence interval of 2270 yrs and dip slip of ∼4.8  m yield a single‐interval slip rate of ∼1.8  mm/yr. The lack of evidence for pre‐PE deformation indicates probable episodic (clustering) behavior on the SGF that may be related to strain migration among other similarly oriented thrust faults that together accommodate shortening south of the Denali fault. We suspect that slip‐partitioned thrust‐triggered earthquakes may be a common occurrence on the Denali fault system, but documenting the frequency of such events will be very difficult, given the lack of long‐term paleoseismic records, the number of potential thrust‐earthquake sources, and the pervasive glacial erosion in the region.

Slip maxima at fault junctions and rupturing of barriers during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shen, Z.-K.; Sun, Jielun; Zhang, P.; Wan, Y.; Wang, M.; Burgmann, R.; Zeng, Y.; Gan, Weijun; Liao, H.; Wang, Q.

2009-01-01

The disastrous 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China took the local population as well as scientists by surprise. Although the Longmen Shan fault zonewhich includes the fault segments along which this earthquake nucleatedwas well known, geologic and geodetic data indicate relatively low (<3 mm yr -1) deformation rates. Here we invert Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data to infer fault geometry and slip distribution associated with the earthquake. Our analysis shows that the geometry of the fault changes along its length: in the southwest, the fault plane dips moderately to the northwest but becomes nearly vertical in the northeast. Associated with this is a change in the motion along the fault from predominantly thrusting to strike-slip. Peak slip along the fault occurs at the intersections of fault segments located near the towns of Yingxiu, Beichuan and Nanba, where fatalities and damage were concentrated. We suggest that these locations represent barriers that failed in a single event, enabling the rupture to cascade through several fault segments and cause a major moment magnitude (Mw) 7.9 earthquake. Using coseismic slip distribution and geodetic and geological slip rates, we estimate that the failure of barriers and rupture along multiple segments takes place approximately once in 4,000 years. ?? 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

The origin of high frequency radiation in earthquakes and the geometry of faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madariaga, R.

2004-12-01

In a seminal paper of 1967 Kei Aki discovered the scaling law of earthquake spectra and showed that, among other things, the high frequency decay was of type omega-squared. This implies that high frequency displacement amplitudes are proportional to a characteristic length of the fault, and radiated energy scales with the cube of the fault dimension, just like seismic moment. Later in the seventies, it was found out that a simple explanation for this frequency dependence of spectra was that high frequencies were generated by stopping phases, waves emitted by changes in speed of the rupture front as it propagates along the fault, but this did not explain the scaling of high frequency waves with fault length. Earthquake energy balance is such that, ignoring attenuation, radiated energy is the change in strain energy minus energy released for overcoming friction. Until recently the latter was considered to be a material property that did not scale with fault size. Yet, in another classical paper Aki and Das estimated in the late 70s that energy release rate also scaled with earthquake size, because earthquakes were often stopped by barriers or changed rupture speed at them. This observation was independently confirmed in the late 90s by Ide and Takeo and Olsen et al who found that energy release rates for Kobe and Landers were in the order of a MJ/m2, implying that Gc necessarily scales with earthquake size, because if this was a material property, small earthquakes would never occur. Using both simple analytical and numerical models developed by Addia-Bedia and Aochi and Madariaga, we examine the consequence of these observations for the scaling of high frequency waves with fault size. We demonstrate using some classical results by Kostrov, Husseiny and Freund that high frequency energy flow measures energy release rate and is generated when ruptures change velocity (both direction and speed) at fault kinks or jogs. Our results explain why super shear ruptures are

Use of Fault Displacement Vector to Identify Future Zones of Seismicity: An Example from the Earthquakes of Nepal Himalayas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naim, F.; Mukherjee, M. K.

2017-12-01

Earthquakes occur due to fault slip in the subsurface. They can occur either as interplate or intraplate earthquakes. The region of study is the Nepal Himalayas that defines the boundary of Indian-Eurasian plate and houses the focus of the most devastating earthquakes. The aim of the study was to analyze all the earthquakes that occurred in the Nepal Himalayas upto May 12, 2015 earthquake in order to mark the regions still under stress and vulnerable for future earthquakes. Three different fault systems in the Nepal Himalayas define the tectonic set up of the area. They are: (1) Main Frontal Thrust(MFT), (2) Main Central Thrust(MCT) and (3) Main Boundary Thrust(MBT) that extend from NW to SE. Most of the earthquakes were observed to occur between the MBT and MCT. Since the thrust faults are dipping towards NE, the focus of most of the earthquakes lies on the MBT. The methodology includes estimating the dip of the fault by considering the depths of different earthquake events and their corresponding distance from the MBT. In order to carry out stress analysis on the fault, the beach ball diagrams associated with the different earthquakes were plotted on a map. Earthquakes in the NW and central region of the fault zone were associated with reverse fault slip while that on the South-Eastern part were associated with a strike slip component. The direction of net slip on the fault associated with the different earthquakes was known and from this a 3D slip diagram of the fault was constructed. The regions vulnerable for future earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya were demarcated on the 3D slip diagram of the fault. Such zones were marked owing to the fact that the slips due to earthquakes cause the adjoining areas to come under immense stress and this stress is directly proportional to the amount of slip occuring on the fault. These vulnerable zones were in turn projected on the map to show their position and are predicted to contain the epicenter of the future earthquakes.

Temporal variation in fault friction and its effects on the slip evolution of a thrust fault over several earthquake cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf

2013-04-01

The friction coefficient is a key parameter for the slip evolution of faults, but how temporal changes in friction affect fault slip is still poorly known. By using three-dimensional numerical models with a thrust fault that is alternately locked and released, we show that variations in the friction coefficient affect both coseismic and long-term fault slip (Hampel and Hetzel, 2012). Decreasing the friction coefficient by 5% while keeping the duration of the interseismic phase constant leads to a four-fold increase in coseismic slip, whereas a 5% increase nearly suppresses slip. A gradual decrease or increase of friction over several earthquake cycles (1-5% per earthquake) considerably alters the cumulative fault slip. In nature, the slip deficit (surplus) resulting from variations in the friction coefficient would presumably be compensated by a longer (shorter) interseismic phase, but the magnitude of the changes required for compensation render variations of the friction coefficient of >5% unlikely. Reference Hampel, A., R. Hetzel (2012) Temporal variation in fault friction and its effects on the slip evolution of a thrust fault over several earthquake cycles. Terra Nova, 24, 357-362, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2012.01073.x.

Sensitivity analysis of tall buildings in Semarang, Indonesia due to fault earthquakes with maximum 7 Mw

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partono, Windu; Pardoyo, Bambang; Atmanto, Indrastono Dwi; Azizah, Lisa; Chintami, Rouli Dian

2017-11-01

Fault is one of the dangerous earthquake sources that can cause building failure. A lot of buildings were collapsed caused by Yogyakarta (2006) and Pidie (2016) fault source earthquakes with maximum magnitude 6.4 Mw. Following the research conducted by Team for Revision of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2010 and 2016, Lasem, Demak and Semarang faults are three closest earthquake sources surrounding Semarang. The ground motion from those three earthquake sources should be taken into account for structural design and evaluation. Most of tall buildings, with minimum 40 meter high, in Semarang were designed and constructed following the 2002 and 2012 Indonesian Seismic Code. This paper presents the result of sensitivity analysis research with emphasis on the prediction of deformation and inter-story drift of existing tall building within the city against fault earthquakes. The analysis was performed by conducting dynamic structural analysis of 8 (eight) tall buildings using modified acceleration time histories. The modified acceleration time histories were calculated for three fault earthquakes with magnitude from 6 Mw to 7 Mw. The modified acceleration time histories were implemented due to inadequate time histories data caused by those three fault earthquakes. Sensitivity analysis of building against earthquake can be predicted by evaluating surface response spectra calculated using seismic code and surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories from a specific earthquake event. If surface response spectra calculated using seismic code is greater than surface response spectra calculated from acceleration time histories the structure will stable enough to resist the earthquake force.

A Controllable Earthquake Rupture Experiment on the Homestake Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Germanovich, L. N.; Murdoch, L. C.; Garagash, D.; Reches, Z.; Martel, S. J.; Gwaba, D.; Elsworth, D.; Lowell, R. P.; Onstott, T. C.

2010-12-01

Fault-slip is typically simulated in the laboratory at the cm-to-dm scale. Laboratory results are then up-scaled by orders of magnitude to understand faulting and earthquakes processes. We suggest an experimental approach to reactivate faults in-situ at scales ~10-100 m using thermal techniques and fluid injection to modify in situ stresses and the fault strength to the point where the rock fails. Mines where the modified in-situ stresses are sufficient to drive faulting, present an opportunity to conduct such experiments. During our recent field work in the former Homestake gold mine in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, we found a large fault present on multiple mine levels. The fault is subparallel to the local foliation in the Poorman formation, a Proterozoic metamorphic rock deformed into regional-scale folds with axes plunging ~40° to the SSE. The fault extends at least 1.5 km along strike and dip, with a center ~1.5 km deep. It strikes ~320-340° N, dips ~45-70° NE, and is recognized by a ~0.3-0.5 m thick distinct gouge that contains crushed host rock and black material that appears to be graphite. Although we could not find clear evidence for fault displacement, secondary features suggest that it is a normal fault. The size and distinct structure of this fault make it a promising target for in-situ experimentation of fault strength, hydrological properties, and slip nucleation processes. Most earthquakes are thought to be the result of unstable slip on existing faults, Activation of the Homestake fault in response to the controlled fluid injection and thermally changing background stresses is likely to be localized on a crack-like patch. Slow patch propagation, moderated by the injection rate and the rate of change of the background stresses, may become unstable, leading to the nucleation of a small earthquake (dynamic) rupture. This controlled instability is intimately related to the dependence of the fault strength on the slip process and has been

Irregular earthquake recurrence patterns and slip variability on a plate-boundary Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wechsler, N.; Rockwell, T. K.; Klinger, Y.

2015-12-01

The Dead Sea fault in the Levant represents a simple, segmented plate boundary from the Gulf of Aqaba northward to the Sea of Galilee, where it changes its character into a complex plate boundary with multiple sub-parallel faults in northern Israel, Lebanon and Syria. The studied Jordan Gorge (JG) segment is the northernmost part of the simple section, before the fault becomes more complex. Seven fault-crossing buried paleo-channels, offset by the Dead Sea fault, were investigated using paleoseismic and geophysical methods. The mapped offsets capture the long-term rupture history and slip-rate behavior on the JG fault segment for the past 4000 years. The ~20 km long JG segment appears to be more active (in term of number of earthquakes) than its neighboring segments to the south and north. The rate of movement on this segment varies considerably over the studied period: the long-term slip-rate for the entire 4000 years is similar to previously observed rates (~4 mm/yr), yet over shorter time periods the rate varies from 3-8 mm/yr. Paleoseismic data on both timing and displacement indicate a high COV >1 (clustered) with displacement per event varying by nearly an order of magnitude. The rate of earthquake production does not produce a time predictable pattern over a period of 2 kyr. We postulate that the seismic behavior of the JG fault is influenced by stress interactions with its neighboring faults to the north and south. Coulomb stress modelling demonstrates that an earthquake on any neighboring fault will increase the Coulomb stress on the JG fault and thus promote rupture. We conclude that deriving on-fault slip-rates and earthquake recurrence patterns from a single site and/or over a short time period can produce misleading results. The definition of an adequately long time period to resolve slip-rate is a question that needs to be addressed and requires further work.

A stochastic automata network for earthquake simulation and hazard estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belubekian, Maya Ernest

1998-11-01

This research develops a model for simulation of earthquakes on seismic faults with available earthquake catalog data. The model allows estimation of the seismic hazard at a site of interest and assessment of the potential damage and loss in a region. There are two approaches for studying the earthquakes: mechanistic and stochastic. In the mechanistic approach, seismic processes, such as changes in stress or slip on faults, are studied in detail. In the stochastic approach, earthquake occurrences are simulated as realizations of a certain stochastic process. In this dissertation, a stochastic earthquake occurrence model is developed that uses the results from dislocation theory for the estimation of slip released in earthquakes. The slip accumulation and release laws and the event scheduling mechanism adopted in the model result in a memoryless Poisson process for the small and moderate events and in a time- and space-dependent process for large events. The minimum and maximum of the hazard are estimated by the model when the initial conditions along the faults correspond to a situation right after a largest event and after a long seismic gap, respectively. These estimates are compared with the ones obtained from a Poisson model. The Poisson model overestimates the hazard after the maximum event and underestimates it in the period of a long seismic quiescence. The earthquake occurrence model is formulated as a stochastic automata network. Each fault is divided into cells, or automata, that interact by means of information exchange. The model uses a statistical method called bootstrap for the evaluation of the confidence bounds on its results. The parameters of the model are adjusted to the target magnitude patterns obtained from the catalog. A case study is presented for the city of Palo Alto, where the hazard is controlled by the San Andreas, Hayward and Calaveras faults. The results of the model are used to evaluate the damage and loss distribution in Palo Alto

The 2003 Bam (Iran) earthquake: Rupture of a blind strike-slip fault

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Talebian, M.; Fielding, E. J.; Funning, G. J.; Ghorashi, M.; Jackson, J.; Nazari, H.; Parsons, B.; Priestley, K.; Rosen, P. A.; Walker, R.;

Frictional melt generated by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake and its faulting mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Li, H.; Si, J.; Sun, Z.; Zhang, L.; He, X.

2017-12-01

Fault-related pseudotachylytes are considered as fossil earthquakes, conveying significant information that provide improved insight into fault behaviors and their mechanical properties. The WFSD project was carried out right after the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, detailed research was conducted in the drilling cores. 2 mm rigid black layer with fresh slickenlines was observed at 732.6 m in WFSD-1 cores drilled at the southern Yingxiu-Beichuan fault (YBF). Evidence of optical microscopy, FESEM and FIB-TEM show it's frictional melt (pseudotachylyte). In the northern part of YBF, 4 mm fresh melt was found at 1084 m with similar structures in WFSD-4S cores. The melts contain numerous microcracks. Considering that (1) the highly unstable property of the frictional melt (easily be altered or devitrified) under geological conditions; (2) the unfilled microcracks; (3) fresh slickenlines and (4) recent large earthquake in this area, we believe that 2-4 mm melt was produced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. This is the first report of fresh pseudotachylyte with slickenlines in natural fault that generated by modern earthquake. Geochemical analyses show that fault rocks at 732.6 m are enriched in CaO, Fe2O3, FeO, H2O+ and LOI, whereas depleted in SiO2. XRF results show that Ca and Fe are enriched obviously in the 2.5 cm fine-grained fault rocks and Ba enriched in the slip surface. The melt has a higher magnetic susceptibility value, which may due to neoformed magnetite and metallic iron formed in fault frictional melt. Frictional melt visible in both southern and northern part of YBF reveals that frictional melt lubrication played a major role in the Wenchuan earthquake. Instead of vesicles and microlites, numerous randomly oriented microcracks in the melt, exhibiting a quenching texture. The quenching texture suggests the frictional melt was generated under rapid heat-dissipation condition, implying vigorous fluid circulation during the earthquake. We surmise that during

The 2013, Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake, energetic strike-slip reactivation of a thrust fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avouac, Jean-Philippe; Ayoub, Francois; Wei, Shengji; Ampuero, Jean-Paul; Meng, Lingsen; Leprince, Sebastien; Jolivet, Romain; Duputel, Zacharie; Helmberger, Don

2014-04-01

We analyse the Mw 7.7 Balochistan earthquake of 09/24/2013 based on ground surface deformation measured from sub-pixel correlation of Landsat-8 images, combined with back-projection and finite source modeling of teleseismic waveforms. The earthquake nucleated south of the Chaman strike-slip fault and propagated southwestward along the Hoshab fault at the front of the Kech Band. The rupture was mostly unilateral, propagated at 3 km/s on average and produced a 200 km surface fault trace with purely strike-slip displacement peaking to 10 m and averaging around 6 m. The finite source model shows that slip was maximum near the surface. Although the Hoshab fault is dipping by 45° to the North, in accordance with its origin as a thrust fault within the Makran accretionary prism, slip was nearly purely strike-slip during that earthquake. Large seismic slip on such a non-optimally oriented fault was enhanced possibly due to the influence of the free surface on dynamic stresses or to particular properties of the fault zone allowing for strong dynamic weakening. Strike-slip faulting on thrust fault within the eastern Makran is interpreted as due to eastward extrusion of the accretionary prism as it bulges out over the Indian plate. Portions of the Makran megathrust, some thrust faults in the Kirthar range and strike-slip faults within the Chaman fault system have been brought closer to failure by this earthquake. Aftershocks cluster within the Chaman fault system north of the epicenter, opposite to the direction of rupture propagation. By contrast, few aftershocks were detected in the area of maximum moment release. In this example, aftershocks cannot be used to infer earthquake characteristics.

Source model of an earthquake doublet that occurred in a pull-apart basin along the Sumatran fault, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, M.; Kumagai, H.; Toda, S.; Ando, R.; Yamashina, T.; Inoue, H.; Sunarjo

2010-04-01

On 2007 March 6, an earthquake doublet occurred along the Sumatran fault, Indonesia. The epicentres were located near Padang Panjang, central Sumatra, Indonesia. The first earthquake, with a moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.4, occurred at 03:49 UTC and was followed two hours later (05:49 UTC) by an earthquake of similar size (Mw = 6.3). We studied the earthquake doublet by a waveform inversion analysis using data from a broadband seismograph network in Indonesia (JISNET). The focal mechanisms of the two earthquakes indicate almost identical right-lateral strike-slip faults, consistent with the geometry of the Sumatran fault. Both earthquakes nucleated below the northern end of Lake Singkarak, which is in a pull-apart basin between the Sumani and Sianok segments of the Sumatran fault system, but the earthquakes ruptured different fault segments. The first earthquake occurred along the southern Sumani segment and its rupture propagated southeastward, whereas the second one ruptured the northern Sianok segment northwestward. Along these fault segments, earthquake doublets, in which the two adjacent fault segments rupture one after the other, have occurred repeatedly. We investigated the state of stress at a segment boundary of a fault system based on the Coulomb stress changes. The stress on faults increases during interseismic periods and is released by faulting. At a segment boundary, on the other hand, the stress increases both interseismically and coseismically, and may not be released unless new fractures are created. Accordingly, ruptures may tend to initiate at a pull-apart basin. When an earthquake occurs on one of the fault segments, the stress increases coseismically around the basin. The stress changes caused by that earthquake may trigger a rupture on the other segment after a short time interval. We also examined the mechanism of the delayed rupture based on a theory of a fluid-saturated poroelastic medium and dynamic rupture simulations incorporating a

Long-Term Fault Memory: A New Time-Dependent Recurrence Model for Large Earthquake Clusters on Plate Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salditch, L.; Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Campbell, M. R.

2017-12-01

A challenge for earthquake hazard assessment is that geologic records often show large earthquakes occurring in temporal clusters separated by periods of quiescence. For example, in Cascadia, a paleoseismic record going back 10,000 years shows four to five clusters separated by approximately 1,000 year gaps. If we are still in the cluster that began 1700 years ago, a large earthquake is likely to happen soon. If the cluster has ended, a great earthquake is less likely. For a Gaussian distribution of recurrence times, the probability of an earthquake in the next 50 years is six times larger if we are still in the most recent cluster. Earthquake hazard assessments typically employ one of two recurrence models, neither of which directly incorporate clustering. In one, earthquake probability is time-independent and modeled as Poissonian, so an earthquake is equally likely at any time. The fault has no "memory" because when a prior earthquake occurred has no bearing on when the next will occur. The other common model is a time-dependent earthquake cycle in which the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which the probability resets to zero. Because the probability is reset after each earthquake, the fault "remembers" only the last earthquake. This approach can be used with any assumed probability density function for recurrence times. We propose an alternative, Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM), a modified earthquake cycle model where the probability of an earthquake increases with time until one happens, after which it decreases, but not necessarily to zero. Hence the probability of the next earthquake depends on the fault's history over multiple cycles, giving "long-term memory". Physically, this reflects an earthquake releasing only part of the elastic strain stored on the fault. We use the LTFM to simulate earthquake clustering along the San Andreas Fault and Cascadia. In some portions of the simulated earthquake history, events would

Earthquake fracture energy inferred from kinematic rupture models on extended faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinti, E.; Spudich, P.; Cocco, M.

2005-01-01

We estimate fracture energy on extended faults for several recent earthquakes by retrieving dynamic traction evolution at each point on the fault plane from slip history imaged by inverting ground motion waveforms. We define the breakdown work (Wb) as the excess of work over some minimum traction level achieved during slip. Wb is equivalent to "seismological" fracture energy (G) in previous investigations. Our numerical approach uses slip velocity as a boundary condition on the fault. We employ a three-dimensional finite difference algorithm to compute the dynamic traction evolution in the time domain during the earthquake rupture. We estimate Wb by calculating the scalar product between dynamic traction and slip velocity vectors. This approach does not require specifying a constitutive law and assuming dynamic traction to be collinear with slip velocity. If these vectors are not collinear, the inferred breakdown work depends on the initial traction level. We show that breakdown work depends on the square of slip. The spatial distribution of breakdown work in a single earthquake is strongly correlated with the slip distribution. Breakdown work density and its integral over the fault, breakdown energy, scale with seismic moment according to a power law (with exponent 0.59 and 1.18, respectively). Our estimates of breakdown work range between 4 ?? 105 and 2 ?? 107 J/m2 for earthquakes having moment magnitudes between 5.6 and 7.2. We also compare our inferred values with geologic surface energies. This comparison might suggest that breakdown work for large earthquakes goes primarily into heat production. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Refinements on the inferred causative faults of the great 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revathy, P. M.; Rajendran, K.

2014-12-01

As the largest known intra-plate strike-slip events, the pair of 2012 earthquakes in the Wharton Basin is a rarity. Separated in time by 2 hours these events rouse interest also because of their short inter-event duration, complex rupture mechanism, and spatial-temporal proximity to the great 2004 Sumatra plate boundary earthquake. Reactivation of fossil ridge-transform pairs is a favoured mechanism for large oceanic plate earthquakes and their inherent geometry triggers earthquakes on conjugate fault systems, as observed previously in the Wharton Basin. The current debate is whether the ruptures occurred on the WNW-ESE paleo ridges or the NNE-SSW paleo transforms. Back-projection models give a complex rupture pattern that favours the WNW-ESE fault [1]. However, the static stress changes due to the 2004 Sumatra earthquake and 2005 Nias earthquake favour the N15°E fault [2]. We use the Teleseismic Body-Wave Inversion Program [3] and waveform data from Global Seismic Network, to obtain the best fit solutions using P and S-wave synthetic modelling. The preliminary P-wave analysis of both earthquakes gives source parameters that are consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The obtained slip distribution complies with the NNE-SSW transforms. Both these earthquakes triggered small tsunamis which appear as two distinctive pulses on 13 Indian Ocean tide gauges and buoys. Frequency spectra of the tsunami recordings from various azimuths provide additional constraint for the choice of the causative faults. References: [1] Yue, H., T. Lay, and K. D. Koper (2012), En echelon and orthogonal fault ruptures of the 11 April 2012 great intraplate earthquakes, Nature, 490, 245-249, doi:10.1038/nature11492 [2] Delescluse, M., N. Chamot-Rooke, R. Cattin, L. Fleitout, O. Trubienko and C. Vigny April 2012 intra-oceanic seismicity off Sumatra boosted by the Banda-Aceh megathrust, Nature, 490(2012), pp. 240-244, doi:10.1038/nature11520 [3] M. Kikuchi and H. Kanamori, Note on

Multiple geophysical observations indicate possible splay fault activation during the 2006 Java Tsunami earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, W.; Bassett, D.; Denolle, M.; Shearer, P. M.; Ji, C.; Jiang, J.

2017-12-01

The 2006 Mw 7.8 Java earthquake was a tsunami earthquake, exhibiting frequency-dependent seismic radiation along strike. High-frequency global back-projection results suggest two distinct rupture stages. The first stage lasted 65 s with a rupture speed of 1.2 km/s, while the second stage lasted from 65 to 150 s with a rupture speed of 2.7 km/s. In addition, P-wave high-frequency radiated energy and fall-off rates indicate a rupture transition at 60 s. High-frequency radiators resolved with back-projection during the second stage spatially correlate with splay fault traces mapped from residual free-air gravity anomalies. These splay faults also collocate with a major tsunami source associated with the earthquake inferred from tsunami first-crest back-propagation simulation. These correlations suggest that the splay faults may have been reactivated during the Java earthquake, as has been proposed for other tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as the 1944 Mw 8.1 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai Trough.

Economic consequences of earthquakes: bridging research and practice with HayWired

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Kroll, C.

2016-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey partners with organizations and experts to develop multiple hazard scenarios. The HayWired earthquake scenario refers to a rupture of the Hayward fault in the Bay Area of California and addresses the potential chaos related to interconnectedness at many levels: the fault afterslip and aftershocks, interdependencies of lifelines, wired/wireless technology, communities at risk, and ripple effects throughout today's digital economy. The scenario is intended for diverse audiences. HayWired analyses translate earthquake hazards (surface rupture, ground shaking, liquefaction, landslides) into physical engineering and environmental health impacts, and into societal consequences. Damages to life and property and lifeline service disruptions are direct causes of business interruption. Economic models are used to estimate the economic impacts and resilience in the regional economy. The objective of the economic analysis is to inform policy discourse about economic resilience at all three levels of the economy: macro, meso, and micro. Stakeholders include businesses, economic development, and community leaders. Previous scenario analyses indicate the size of an event: large earthquakes and large winter storms are both "big ones" for California. They motivate actions to reduce the losses from fire following earthquake and water supply outages. They show the effect that resilience can have on reducing economic losses. Evaluators find that stakeholders learned the most about the economic consequences.

Evidence for Late Holocene earthquakes on the Utsalady Point fault, Northern Puget Lowland, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, S.Y.; Nelson, A.R.; Personius, S.F.; Wells, R.E.; Kelsey, H.M.; Sherrod, B.L.; Okumura, K.; Koehler, R.; Witter, R.C.; Bradley, L.A.; Harding, D.J.

2004-01-01

Trenches across the Utsalady Point fault in the northern Puget Lowland of Washington reveal evidence of at least one and probably two late Holocene earthquakes. The "Teeka" and "Duffers" trenches were located along a 1.4-km-long, 1-to 4-m-high, northwest-trending, southwest-facing, topographic scarp recognized from Airborne Laser Swath Mapping. Glaciomarine drift exposed in the trenches reveals evidence of about 95 to 150 cm of vertical and 200 to 220 cm of left-lateral slip in the Teeka trench. Radiocarbon ages from a buried soil A horizon and overlying slope colluvium along with the historical record of earthquakes suggest that this faulting occurred 100 to 400 calendar years B.P. (A.D. 1550 to 1850). In the Duffers trench, 370 to 450 cm of vertical separation is accommodated by faulting (???210 cm) and folding (???160 to 240 cm), with probable but undetermined amounts of lateral slip. Stratigraphic relations and radiocarbon ages from buried soil, colluvium, and fissure fill in the hanging wall suggest the deformation at Duffers is most likely from two earthquakes that occurred between 100 to 500 and 1100 to 2200 calendar years B.P., but deformation during a single earthquake is also possible. For the two-earthquake hypothesis, deformation at Teeka trench in the first event involved folding but not faulting. Regional relations suggest that the earthquake(s) were M ??? ???6.7 and that offshore rupture may have produced tsunamis. Based on this investigation and related recent studies, the maximum recurrence interval for large ground-rupturing crustal-fault earthquakes in the Puget Lowland is about 400 to 600 years or less.

Repetition of large stress drop earthquakes on Wairarapa fault, New Zealand, revealed by LiDAR data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delor, E.; Manighetti, I.; Garambois, S.; Beaupretre, S.; Vitard, C.

2013-12-01

We have acquired high-resolution LiDAR topographic data over most of the onland trace of the 120 km-long Wairarapa strike-slip fault, New Zealand. The Wairarapa fault broke in a large earthquake in 1855, and this historical earthquake is suggested to have produced up to 18 m of lateral slip at the ground surface. This would make this earthquake a remarkable event having produced a stress drop much higher than commonly observed on other earthquakes worldwide. The LiDAR data allowed us examining the ground surface morphology along the fault at < 50 cm resolution, including in the many places covered with vegetation. In doing so, we identified more than 900 alluvial features of various natures and sizes that are clearly laterally offset by the fault. We measured the about 670 clearest lateral offsets, along with their uncertainties. Most offsets are lower than 100 m. Each measurement was weighted by a quality factor that quantifies the confidence level in the correlation of the paired markers. Since the slips are expected to vary along the fault, we analyzed the measurements in short, 3-5 km-long fault segments. The PDF statistical analysis of the cumulative offsets per segment reveals that the alluvial morphology has well recorded, at every step along the fault, no more than a few (3-6), well distinct cumulative slips, all lower than 80 m. Plotted along the entire fault, the statistically defined cumulative slip values document four, fairly continuous slip profiles that we attribute to the four most recent large earthquakes on the Wairarapa fault. The four slip profiles have a roughly triangular and asymmetric envelope shape that is similar to the coseismic slip distributions described for most large earthquakes worldwide. The four slip profiles have their maximum slip at the same place, in the northeastern third of the fault trace. The maximum slips vary from one event to another in the range 7-15 m; the most recent 1855 earthquake produced a maximum coseismic slip

Crustal structure and fault geometry of the 2010 Haiti earthquake from temporary seismometer deployments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Douilly, Roby; Haase, Jennifer S.; Ellsworth, William L.; Bouin, Marie‐Paule; Calais, Eric; Symithe, Steeve J.; Armbruster, John G.; Mercier de Lépinay, Bernard; Deschamps, Anne; Mildor, Saint‐Louis; Meremonte, Mark E.; Hough, Susan E.

2013-01-01

Haiti has been the locus of a number of large and damaging historical earthquakes. The recent 12 January 2010 Mw 7.0 earthquake affected cities that were largely unprepared, which resulted in tremendous losses. It was initially assumed that the earthquake ruptured the Enriquillo Plantain Garden fault (EPGF), a major active structure in southern Haiti, known from geodetic measurements and its geomorphic expression to be capable of producing M 7 or larger earthquakes. Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data, however, showed that the event ruptured a previously unmapped fault, the Léogâne fault, a north‐dipping oblique transpressional fault located immediately north of the EPGF. Following the earthquake, several groups installed temporary seismic stations to record aftershocks, including ocean‐bottom seismometers on either side of the EPGF. We use data from the complete set of stations deployed after the event, on land and offshore, to relocate all aftershocks from 10 February to 24 June 2010, determine a 1D regional crustal velocity model, and calculate focal mechanisms. The aftershock locations from the combined dataset clearly delineate the Léogâne fault, with a geometry close to that inferred from geodetic data. Its strike and dip closely agree with the global centroid moment tensor solution of the mainshock but with a steeper dip than inferred from previous finite fault inversions. The aftershocks also delineate a structure with shallower southward dip offshore and to the west of the rupture zone, which could indicate triggered seismicity on the offshore Trois Baies reverse fault. We use first‐motion focal mechanisms to clarify the relationship of the fault geometry to the triggered aftershocks.

DOJ News Release: Hayward Baker Settlement

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The United States reached a settlement with Hayward Baker, Inc., (“Hayward Baker”) in a civil case involving the Buy American provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (“ARRA”).

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, Alice-Agnes; Madden, Elizabeth H.; Ulrich, Thomas; Wollherr, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and fault strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, the 1994 Northridge earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

Coseismic and postseismic deformation due to the 2007 M5.5 Ghazaband fault earthquake, Balochistan, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fattahi, H.; Amelung, F.; Chaussard, E.; Wdowinski, S.

2015-05-01

Time series analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data reveals coseismic and postseismic surface displacements associated with the 2007 M5.5 earthquake along the southern Ghazaband fault, a major but little studied fault in Pakistan. Modeling indicates that the coseismic surface deformation was caused by ~9 cm of strike-slip displacement along a shallow subvertical fault. The earthquake was followed by at least 1 year of afterslip, releasing ~70% of the moment of the main event, equivalent to a M5.4 earthquake. This high aseismic relative to the seismic moment release is consistent with previous observations for moderate earthquakes (M < 6) and suggests that smaller earthquakes are associated with a higher aseismic relative to seismic moment release than larger earthquakes.

Characterization of Aftershock Sequences from Large Strike-Slip Earthquakes Along Geometrically Complex Faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sexton, E.; Thomas, A.; Delbridge, B. G.

2017-12-01

Large earthquakes often exhibit complex slip distributions and occur along non-planar fault geometries, resulting in variable stress changes throughout the region of the fault hosting aftershocks. To better discern the role of geometric discontinuities on aftershock sequences, we compare areas of enhanced and reduced Coulomb failure stress and mean stress for systematic differences in the time dependence and productivity of these aftershock sequences. In strike-slip faults, releasing structures, including stepovers and bends, experience an increase in both Coulomb failure stress and mean stress during an earthquake, promoting fluid diffusion into the region and further failure. Conversely, Coulomb failure stress and mean stress decrease in restraining bends and stepovers in strike-slip faults, and fluids diffuse away from these areas, discouraging failure. We examine spatial differences in seismicity patterns along structurally complex strike-slip faults which have hosted large earthquakes, such as the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, the 2010 Mw 7.2 El-Mayor Cucapah, the 2014 Mw 6.0 South Napa, and the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto events. We characterize the behavior of these aftershock sequences with the Epidemic Type Aftershock-Sequence Model (ETAS). In this statistical model, the total occurrence rate of aftershocks induced by an earthquake is λ(t) = λ_0 + \\sum_{i:t_i

Geotechnical reconnaissance of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kayen, R.; Thompson, E.; Minasian, D.; Moss, R.E.S.; Collins, B.D.; Sitar, N.; Dreger, D.; Carver, G.

2004-01-01

The 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake resulted in 340 km of ruptures along three separate faults, causing widespread liquefaction in the fluvial deposits of the alpine valleys of the Alaska Range and eastern lowlands of the Tanana River. Areas affected by liquefaction are largely confined to Holocene alluvial deposits, man-made embankments, and backfills. Liquefaction damage, sparse surrounding the fault rupture in the western region, was abundant and severe on the eastern rivers: the Robertson, Slana, Tok, Chisana, Nabesna and Tanana Rivers. Synthetic seismograms from a kinematic source model suggest that the eastern region of the rupture zone had elevated strong-motion levels due to rupture directivity, supporting observations of elevated geotechnical damage. We use augered soil samples and shear-wave velocity profiles made with a portable apparatus for the spectral analysis of surface waves (SASW) to characterize soil properties and stiffness at liquefaction sites and three trans-Alaska pipeline pump station accelerometer locations. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Surface rupture of the 2002 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake and comparison with other strike-slip ruptures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haeussler, Peter J.; Schwartz, D.P.; Dawson, T.E.; Stenner, Heidi D.; Lienkaemper, J.J.; Cinti, F.; Montone, Paola; Sherrod, B.; Craw, P.

2004-01-01

On 3 November 2002, an M7.9 earthquake produced 340 km of surface rupture on the Denali and two related faults in Alaska. The rupture proceeded from west to east and began with a 40-km-long break on a previously unknown thrust fault. Estimates of surface slip on this thrust are 3-6 m. Next came the principal surface break along ???218 km of the Denali fault. Right-lateral offsets averaged around 5 m and increased eastward to a maximum of nearly 9 m. The fault also ruptured beneath the trans-Alaska oil pipeline, which withstood almost 6 m of lateral offset. Finally, slip turned southeastward onto the Totschunda fault. Right-lateral offsets are up to 3 m, and the surface rupture is about 76 km long. This three-part rupture ranks among the longest strike-slip events of the past two centuries. The earthquake is typical when compared to other large earthquakes on major intracontinental strike-slip faults. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Multi-Scale Structure and Earthquake Properties in the San Jacinto Fault Zone Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Zion, Y.

2014-12-01

I review multi-scale multi-signal seismological results on structure and earthquake properties within and around the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. The results are based on data of the southern California and ANZA networks covering scales from a few km to over 100 km, additional near-fault seismometers and linear arrays with instrument spacing 25-50 m that cross the SJFZ at several locations, and a dense rectangular array with >1100 vertical-component nodes separated by 10-30 m centered on the fault. The structural studies utilize earthquake data to image the seismogenic sections and ambient noise to image the shallower structures. The earthquake studies use waveform inversions and additional time domain and spectral methods. We observe pronounced damage regions with low seismic velocities and anomalous Vp/Vs ratios around the fault, and clear velocity contrasts across various sections. The damage zones and velocity contrasts produce fault zone trapped and head waves at various locations, along with time delays, anisotropy and other signals. The damage zones follow a flower-shape with depth; in places with velocity contrast they are offset to the stiffer side at depth as expected for bimaterial ruptures with persistent propagation direction. Analysis of PGV and PGA indicates clear persistent directivity at given fault sections and overall motion amplification within several km around the fault. Clear temporal changes of velocities, probably involving primarily the shallow material, are observed in response to seasonal, earthquake and other loadings. Full source tensor properties of M>4 earthquakes in the complex trifurcation area include statistically-robust small isotropic component, likely reflecting dynamic generation of rock damage in the source volumes. The dense fault zone instruments record seismic "noise" at frequencies >200 Hz that can be used for imaging and monitoring the shallow material with high space and time details, and

Causative Fault of 2016 ML 5.8 Gyeongju Earthquake (SE Korea): Structural and Seismic characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, S.; Cheon, Y.; Lee, Y.; Kim, J.; Kim, K. H.; Son, M.

2017-12-01

A ML 5.8 earthquake, the largest instrumental earthquake in the Korean peninsula, occurred on 12 September 2016 in the Gyeongju-city, SE Korea, where is regarded as a stable intraplate region. The earthquake was widely felt in the southern peninsula and had a maximum MMI VIII in the epicentral region. Most of the intraplate earthquakes occur along preexisting weaknesses, but the potentially seismogenic structures are mostly not exposed at the surface. This study focuses on (1) the structural features in the neighboring area of the epicenter, (2) the distribution of earthquake hypocenter locations during the first 10 days of the aftershock sequence of the Gyeongju earthquake, and (3) the focal mechanism solution of select events to reveal the geometry and kinematics of its causative fault. The earthquake hypocenters in plan view clearly show a linear distribution of N 28°E, which extends about 7 km southwestward from the Yangsan Fault to the Deokcheon Fault. In cross-sectional views along N28°E and perpendicularly, the hypocenters at depths between 11 and 16 km clearly delineate a subsurface fault which has a rupturing size of about 3 ´ 3 km2 and a dip of 78°SE. Based on focal mechanism solutions, the fault acted as dextral strike-slip fault under ENE-WSW compressional stress that has been widely known as the major component of current stress field in and around Korean peninsula. The general trend, N 28°E, of the seismogenic fault slightly differs from the strike of the adjacent NNE-striking Yangsan Fault with an angular difference of 15°. The Yangsan fault is the most prominent dextral strike-slip fault in SE Korea, which can be traced for 170 km with a right-lateral offset of 30 km. The strike-slip movement is well-reported to have occurred during the Paleogene. At that time, probably numerous subsidiary fractures, such as Y-, R-, R'-, and T fractures, in various directions were produced along the Yangsan master fault. It is thus interpreted that a large R

Sedimentary evidence of historical and prehistorical earthquakes along the Venta de Bravo Fault System, Acambay Graben (Central Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacan, Pierre; Ortuño, María; Audin, Laurence; Perea, Hector; Baize, Stephane; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Zúñiga, F. Ramón

2018-03-01

The Venta de Bravo normal fault is one of the longest structures in the intra-arc fault system of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. It defines, together with the Pastores Fault, the 80 km long southern margin of the Acambay Graben. We focus on the westernmost segment of the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new paleoseismological information, evaluate its earthquake history, and assess the related seismic hazard. We analyzed five trenches, distributed at three different sites, in which Holocene surface faulting offsets interbedded volcanoclastic, fluvio-lacustrine and colluvial deposits. Despite the lack of known historical destructive earthquakes along this fault, we found evidence of at least eight earthquakes during the late Quaternary. Our results indicate that this is one of the major seismic sources of the Acambay Graben, capable of producing by itself earthquakes with magnitudes (MW) up to 6.9, with a slip rate of 0.22-0.24 mm yr- 1 and a recurrence interval between 1940 and 2390 years. In addition, a possible multi-fault rupture of the Venta de Bravo Fault together with other faults of the Acambay Graben could result in a MW > 7 earthquake. These new slip rates, earthquake recurrence rates, and estimation of slips per event help advance our understanding of the seismic hazard posed by the Venta de Bravo Fault and provide new parameters for further hazard assessment.

Imaging of earthquake faults using small UAVs as a pathfinder for air and space observations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donnellan, Andrea; Green, Joseph; Ansar, Adnan; Aletky, Joseph; Glasscoe, Margaret; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Arrowsmith, J. Ramón; DeLong, Stephen B.

2017-01-01

Large earthquakes cause billions of dollars in damage and extensive loss of life and property. Geodetic and topographic imaging provide measurements of transient and long-term crustal deformation needed to monitor fault zones and understand earthquakes. Earthquake-induced strain and rupture characteristics are expressed in topographic features imprinted on the landscapes of fault zones. Small UAVs provide an efficient and flexible means to collect multi-angle imagery to reconstruct fine scale fault zone topography and provide surrogate data to determine requirements for and to simulate future platforms for air- and space-based multi-angle imaging.

Rupture evolution of the 2006 Java tsunami earthquake and the possible role of splay faults

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Wenyuan; Bassett, Dan; Jiang, Junle; Shearer, Peter M.; Ji, Chen

2017-11-01

The 2006 Mw 7.8 Java earthquake was a tsunami earthquake, exhibiting frequency-dependent seismic radiation along strike. High-frequency global back-projection results suggest two distinct rupture stages. The first stage lasted ∼65 s with a rupture speed of ∼1.2 km/s, while the second stage lasted from ∼65 to 150 s with a rupture speed of ∼2.7 km/s. High-frequency radiators resolved with back-projection during the second stage spatially correlate with splay fault traces mapped from residual free-air gravity anomalies. These splay faults also colocate with a major tsunami source associated with the earthquake inferred from tsunami first-crest back-propagation simulation. These correlations suggest that the splay faults may have been reactivated during the Java earthquake, as has been proposed for other tsunamigenic earthquakes, such as the 1944 Mw 8.1 Tonankai earthquake in the Nankai Trough.

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, Manuel G.; Mark, Robert K.; Lienkaemper, James J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors.The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation in which the variance results primarily from measurement errors.Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are grouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others.Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating Ms with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement.Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of Ms on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement over regressions that did not involve rupture area. Because no subduction-zone earthquakes are included in this study, the reported results do not apply to such

Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

1974-01-01

An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

Systematic Underestimation of Earthquake Magnitudes from Large Intracontinental Reverse Faults: Historical Ruptures Break Across Segment Boundaries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubin, C. M.

1996-01-01

Because most large-magnitude earthquakes along reverse faults have such irregular and complicated rupture patterns, reverse-fault segments defined on the basis of geometry alone may not be very useful for estimating sizes of future seismic sources. Most modern large ruptures of historical earthquakes generated by intracontinental reverse faults have involved geometrically complex rupture patterns. Ruptures across surficial discontinuities and complexities such as stepovers and cross-faults are common. Specifically, segment boundaries defined on the basis of discontinuities in surficial fault traces, pronounced changes in the geomorphology along strike, or the intersection of active faults commonly have not proven to be major impediments to rupture. Assuming that the seismic rupture will initiate and terminate at adjacent major geometric irregularities will commonly lead to underestimation of magnitudes of future large earthquakes.

Transfer fault earthquake in compressionally reactivated back-arc failed rift: 1948 Fukui earthquake (M7.1), Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishiyama, Tatsuya; Kato, Naoko; Sato, Hiroshi; Koshiya, Shin

2017-04-01

Back-arc rift structures in many subduction zones are recognized as mechanically and thermally weak zones that possibly play important roles in strain accommodation at later post-rift stages within the overriding plates. In case of Miocene back-arc failed rift structures in the Sea of Japan in the Eurasian-Pacific subduction system, the mechanical contrasts between the crustal thrust wedges of the pre-rift continental crust and high velocity lower crust have fundamentally controlled the styles of post-rift, Quaternary active deformation (Ishiyama et al. 2016). In this study, we show a possibility that strike-slip M>7 devastating earthquakes in this region have been gregion enerated by reactivation of transfer faults highly oblique to the rift axes. The 1948 Fukui earthquake (M7.1), onshore shallow seismic event with a strike-slip faulting mechanism (Kanamori, 1973), resulted in more than 3,500 causalities and destructive damages on the infrastructures. While geophysical analyses on geodetic measurements based on leveling and triangulation networks clearly show coseismic left-lateral fault slip on a NNW striking vertical fault plane beneath the Fukui plain (Sagiya, 1999), no evidence for coseismic surface rupture has been identified based on both post-earthquake intensive fieldwork and recent reexamination of stereopair interpretations using 1/3,000 aerial photographs taken in 1948 (Togo et al., 2000). To find recognizable fault-related structures that deform Neogene basin fill sediments, we collected new 9.6-km-long high-resolution seismic reflection data across the geodetically estimated fault plane and adjacent subparallel active strike slip faults, using 925 offline recorders and Envirovib truck as a seismic source. A depth-converted section to 1.5 km depth contains discontinuous seismic reflectors correlated to Miocene volcaniclastic deposits and depression of the overlying Plio-Pleistocene sediments above the geodetically determined fault plane. We interpreted

Constraints on recent earthquake source parameters, fault geometry and aftershock characteristics in Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Benz, H.; Herrmann, R. B.; Bergman, E. A.; McMahon, N. D.; Aster, R. C.

2014-12-01

In late 2009, the seismicity of Oklahoma increased dramatically. The largest of these earthquakes was a series of three damaging events (Mw 4.8, 5.6, 4.8) that occurred over a span of four days in November 2011 near the town of Prague in central Oklahoma. Studies suggest that these earthquakes were induced by reactivation of the Wilzetta fault due to the disposal of waste water from hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") and other oil and gas activities. The Wilzetta fault is a northeast trending vertical strike-slip fault that is a well known structural trap for oil and gas. Since the November 2011 Prague sequence, thousands of small to moderate (M2-M4) earthquakes have occurred throughout central Oklahoma. The most active regions are located near the towns of Stillwater and Medford in north-central Oklahoma, and Guthrie, Langston and Jones near Oklahoma City. The USGS, in collaboration with the Oklahoma Geological Survey and the University of Oklahoma, has responded by deploying numerous temporary seismic stations in the region in order to record the vigorous aftershock sequences. In this study we use data from the temporary seismic stations to re-locate all Oklahoma earthquakes in the USGS National Earthquake Information Center catalog using a multiple-event approach known as hypo-centroidal decomposition that locates earthquakes with decreased uncertainty relative to one another. Modeling from this study allows us to constrain the detailed geometry of the reactivated faults, as well as source parameters (focal mechanisms, stress drop, rupture length) for the larger earthquakes. Preliminary results from the November 2011 Prague sequence suggest that subsurface rupture lengths of the largest earthquakes are anomalously long with very low stress drop. We also observe very high Q (~1000 at 1 Hz) that explains the large felt areas and we find relatively low b-value and a rapid decay of aftershocks.

Aseismic Transform Fault Slip at the Mendocino Triple Junction From Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materna, Kathryn; Taira, Taka'aki; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), at the northern terminus of the San Andreas Fault system, is an actively deforming plate boundary region with poorly constrained estimates of seismic coupling on most offshore fault surfaces. Characteristically repeating earthquakes provide spatial and temporal descriptions of aseismic creep at the MTJ, including on the oceanic transform Mendocino Fault Zone (MFZ) as it subducts beneath North America. Using a dataset of earthquakes from 2008 to 2017, we find that the easternmost segment of the MFZ displays creep during this period at about 65% of the long-term slip rate. We also find creep at slower rates on the shallower strike-slip interface between the Pacific plate and the North American accretionary wedge, as well as on a fault that accommodates Gorda subplate internal deformation. After a nearby M5.7 earthquake in 2015, we observe a possible decrease in aseismic slip on the near-shore MFZ that lasts from 2015 to at least early 2017.

Simulate earthquake cycles on the oceanic transform faults in the framework of rate-and-state friction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, M.

2016-12-01

Progress towards a quantitative and predictive understanding of the earthquake behavior can be achieved by improved understanding of earthquake cycles. However, it is hindered by the long repeat times (100s to 1000s of years) of the largest earthquakes on most faults. At fast-spreading oceanic transform faults, the typical repeating time ranges from 5-20 years, making them a unique tectonic environment for studying the earthquake cycle. One important observation on OTFs is the quasi-periodicity and the spatial-temporal clustering of large earthquakes: same fault segment ruptured repeatedly at a near constant interval and nearby segments ruptured during a short time period. This has been observed on the Gofar and Discovery faults in the East Pacific Rise. Between 1992 and 2014, five clusters of M6 earthquakes occurred on the Gofar and Discovery fault system with recurrence intervals of 4-6 years. Each cluster consisted of a westward migration of seismicity from the Discovery to Gofar segment within a 2-year period, providing strong evidence for spatial-temporal clustering of large OTFs earthquakes. I simulated earthquake cycles of oceanic transform fault in the framework of rate-and-state friction, motivated by the observations at the Gofar and Discovery faults. I focus on a model with two seismic segments, each 20 km long and 5 km wide, separated by an aseismic segment of 10 km wide. This geometry is set based on aftershock locations of the 2008 M6.0 earthquake on Gofar. The repeating large earthquake on both segments are reproduced with similar magnitude as observed. I set the state parameter differently for the two seismic segments so initially they are not synchornized. Results also show that synchronization of the two seismic patches can be achieved after several earthquake cycles when the effective normal stress or the a-b parameter is smaller than surrounding aseismic areas, both having reduced the resistance to seismic rupture in the VS segment. These

Creeping Guanxian-Anxian Fault ruptured in the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, X.; Li, H.; Wang, H.; Zhang, L.; Si, J.

2017-12-01

Crustal active faults can slide either steadily by aseismic creep, or abruptly by earthquake rupture. Creep can relax continuously the stress and reduce the occurrence of large earthquakes. Identifying the behaviors of active faults plays a crucial role in predicting and preventing earthquake disasters. Based on multi-scale structural analyses for fault rocks from the GAF surface rupture zone and the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone Science Drilling borehole 3P, we detect the analogous "mylonite structures" develop pervasively in GAF fault rocks. Such specious "ductile deformations", showing intensive foliation, spindly clasts, tailing structure, "boudin structure", "augen structure" and S-C fabrics, are actually formed in brittle faulting, which indicates the creeping behavior of the GAF. Furthermore, some special structures hint the creeping mechanism. The cracks and veins developed in fractured clasts imply pressure and fluid control in the faulting. Under the effect of fluid, clasts are dissolved in pressing direction, and solutions are transferred to stress vacancy area at both ends of clasts and deposit to regenerate clay minerals. The clasts thus present spindly shape and are surrounded by orientational clay minerals constituting continuous foliation structure. The clay minerals are dominated by phyllosilicates that can weaken faults and promote pressure solution. Therefore, pressure solution creep and phyllosilicates weakening reasonably interpret the creeping of GAF. Additionally, GPS velocity data show slip rates of the GAF are respectively 1.5 and 12 mm/yr during 1998-2008 and 2009-2011, which also indicate the GAF is in creeping during interseismic period. According to analysis on aftershocks distribution and P-wave velocity with depth and geological section in the Longmenshan thrust belt, we suggest the GAF is creeping in shallow (<10 km) and locked in deep (10-20 km). Comprehensive research shows stress propagated from the west was concentrated near the

Statistical relations among earthquake magnitude, surface rupture length, and surface fault displacement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonilla, M.G.; Mark, R.K.; Lienkaemper, J.J.

1984-01-01

In order to refine correlations of surface-wave magnitude, fault rupture length at the ground surface, and fault displacement at the surface by including the uncertainties in these variables, the existing data were critically reviewed and a new data base was compiled. Earthquake magnitudes were redetermined as necessary to make them as consistent as possible with the Gutenberg methods and results, which necessarily make up much of the data base. Measurement errors were estimated for the three variables for 58 moderate to large shallow-focus earthquakes. Regression analyses were then made utilizing the estimated measurement errors. The regression analysis demonstrates that the relations among the variables magnitude, length, and displacement are stochastic in nature. The stochastic variance, introduced in part by incomplete surface expression of seismogenic faulting, variation in shear modulus, and regional factors, dominates the estimated measurement errors. Thus, it is appropriate to use ordinary least squares for the regression models, rather than regression models based upon an underlying deterministic relation with the variance resulting from measurement errors. Significant differences exist in correlations of certain combinations of length, displacement, and magnitude when events are qrouped by fault type or by region, including attenuation regions delineated by Evernden and others. Subdivision of the data results in too few data for some fault types and regions, and for these only regressions using all of the data as a group are reported. Estimates of the magnitude and the standard deviation of the magnitude of a prehistoric or future earthquake associated with a fault can be made by correlating M with the logarithms of rupture length, fault displacement, or the product of length and displacement. Fault rupture area could be reliably estimated for about 20 of the events in the data set. Regression of MS on rupture area did not result in a marked improvement

Interseismic Deformation on the San Andreas Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segall, P.

2001-12-01

Interseismic deformation measurements are most often interpreted in terms of steady slip on buried elastic dislocations. While such models often yield slip-rates that are in reasonable accord with geologic observations, they are: 1) inconsistent with observations of transient deformation following large earthquakes, and 2) tend to predict locking depths significantly deeper than recent large earthquakes. An alternate two-dimensional model of repeating earthquakes that break an elastic plate of thickness H, overlying a viscoelastic half-space with relaxation time tR (Savage and Prescott, 1978) involves 5 parameters; H, tR, t, T, and ˙ {s}, where t is the time since the last quake, T is the earthquake cycle time, and ˙ {s} is the slip-rate. Many parts of the SAF system involve multiple parallel faults, which further increases the number of parameters to be estimated. All hope is not lost, however, if we make use of a priori constraints on slip-rate from geologic studies, and utilize measurements of time dependent strain following the 1906 earthquake, in addition to the present day spatial distribution of deformation-rate. GPS data from the Carrizo Plain segment of the SAF imply a considerably larger relaxation time than inferred from the post-1906 strain-rate transient. This indicates that either the crustal structure differs significantly between northern and central California, or that the simple model is deficient, either due to time-dependent down-dip slip following large earthquakes or non-linear rheology. To test the effect of regional variations in H and tR, I analyze data from the northern San Francisco Bay area (Prescott et al, 2001, JGR), and include the SAF, the Hayward-Rogers Creek (HRC), and Concord-Green Valley faults (CGV). Non-linear optimization using simulated annealing and constrained non-linear least squares yields an optimal model with: H ~ 10 km, tR ~ 34 years, TSAF = 205 years, ˙ {s}SAF ~ 18 mm/yr, tHRC = 225 years, T{ HRC} = 630 years, and

The 1954 and 1980 Algerian earthquakes: implications for the characteristic-displacement model of fault behavior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dewey, J.W.

1991-01-01

Joint epicenter determination of earthquakes that occurred in northern Algeria near Ech Cheliff (named Orleansville in 1954 and El Asnam in 1980) shows that the earthquake of 9 September 1954 (M=6.5) occurred at nearly the same location as the earthquake of 10 October 1980 (M=7.3). The 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks were concentrated close to the boundaries of segment B (nomenclature of Deschamps et al., 1982; King and Yielding, 1984) of the 1980 fault system, which was to experience approximately 8 m of slip in the 1980 earthquake. Later aftershocks of the 1954 earthquake were spread over a broad area, notably in a region north of the 1980 fault system that also experienced many aftershocks to the 1980 earthquake. The closeness of the 1954 main shock and earliest aftershocks to the 1980 segment B implies that the 1954 earthquake involved either 1) rupture of segment B proper, or 2) rupture of a distinct fault in the hanging wall of footwall block of segment B. -from Author

Evidence of Multiple Ground-rupturing Earthquakes in the Past 4000 Years along the Pasuruan Fault, East Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marliyani, G. I.; Arrowsmith, R.; Helmi, H.

2015-12-01

Instrumental and historical records of earthquakes, supplemented by paleoeseismic constraints can help reveal the earthquake potential of an area. The Pasuruan fault is a high angle normal fault with prominent youthful scarps cutting young deltaic sediments in the north coast of East Java, Indonesia and may pose significant hazard to the densely populated region. This fault has not been considered a significant structure, and mapped as a lineament with no sense of motion. Information regarding past earthquakes along this fault is not available. The fault is well defined both in the imagery and in the field as a ~13km long, 2-50m-high scarp. Open and filled fractures and natural exposures of the south-dipping fault plane indicate normal sense of motion. We excavated two fault-perpendicular trenches across a relay ramp identified during our surface mapping. Evidence for past earthquakes (documented in both trenches) includes upward fault termination with associated fissure fills, colluvial wedges and scarp-derived debris, folding, and angular unconformities. The ages of the events are constrained by 23 radiocarbon dates on detrital charcoal. We calibrated the dates using IntCal13 and used Oxcal to build the age model of the events. Our preliminary age model indicates that since 2006±134 B.C., there has been at least five ground rupturing earthquakes along the fault. The oldest event identified in the trench however, is not well-dated. Our modeled 95th percentile ranges of the next four earlier earthquakes (and their mean) are A.D. 1762-1850 (1806), A.D. 1646-1770 (1708), A.D. 1078-1648 (1363), and A.D. 726-1092 (909), yielding a rough recurrence rate of 302±63 yrs. These new data imply that Pasuruan fault is more active than previously thought. Additional well-dated earthquakes are necessary to build a solid earthquake recurrence model. Rupture along the whole section implies a minimum earthquake magnitude of 6.3, considering 13km as the minimum surface rupture

The 2017 Jiuzhaigou Earthquake: A Complicated Event Occurred in a Young Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jianbao; Yue, Han; Shen, Zhengkang; Fang, Lihua; Zhan, Yan; Sun, Xiangyu

2018-03-01

The Minshan Uplift Zone (MUZ) is located at the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, which is the junction of three tectonic terranes. The observed discrepancy between a high uplifting and low shortening rate over the MUZ is attributed to the intrusion of a viscous lower crust. In the last 50 years, several significant earthquakes occurred at the boundaries of the MUZ, that is, the Huya and Mingjiang faults. On 8 August 2017, the Jiuzhaigou earthquake (Mw 6.5) occurred on the northern extension of the Huya fault. We adopt a joint inversion of the interferometric synthetic aperture radar and teleseismic body wave data to investigate the rupture process of this event. The obtained slip model is dominated by left-lateral strike slips on a subvertical fault presenting significant shallow slip deficit. The rupture initiation is composed of both thrust and strike-slip mechanisms producing a non-double-couple solution. We also resolve a secondary fault branch forming an obtuse angle with the main fault plane at its northern end. These phenomena indicate that the northern Huya fault is a young (less mature) fault system. Focal mechanisms of the regional earthquakes demonstrate that the northern and southern Huya faults present different combinations of strike-slip and reversed motion. We attribute such discrepancy to the lateral extension of the viscous lower crust, which appears to extrude to the east beyond the northern Huya fault, in comparison with that confined under the MUZ near the southern Huya fault. This conceptual model is also supported by geomorphological and magnetotelluric observations.

Stress transfer to the Denali and other regional faults from the M 9.2 Alaska earthquake of 1964

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bufe, C.G.

2004-01-01

Stress transfer from the great 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake is modeled on the Denali fault, including the Denali-Totschunda fault segments that ruptured in 2002, and on other regional fault systems where M 7.5 and larger earthquakes have occurred since 1900. The results indicate that analysis of Coulomb stress transfer from the dominant earthquake in a region is a potentially powerful tool in assessing time-varying earthquake hazard. Modeled Coulomb stress increases on the northern Denali and Totschunda faults from the great 1964 earthquake coincide with zones that ruptured in the 2002 Denali fault earthquake, although stress on the Susitna Glacier thrust plane, where the 2002 event initiated, was decreased. A southeasterlytrending Coulomb stress transect along the right-lateral Totschunda-Fairweather-Queen Charlotte trend shows stress transfer from the 1964 event advancing slip on the Totschunda, Fairweather, and Queen Charlotte segments, including the southern Fairweather segment that ruptured in 1972. Stress transfer retarding right-lateral strike slip was observed from the southern part of the Totschunda fault to the northern end of the Fairweather fault (1958 rupture). This region encompasses a gap with shallow thrust faulting but with little evidence of strike-slip faulting connecting the segments to the northwest and southeast. Stress transfer toward failure was computed on the north-south trending right-lateral strike-slip faults in the Gulf of Alaska that ruptured in 1987 and 1988, with inhibitory stress changes at the northern end of the northernmost (1987) rupture. The northern Denali and Totschunda faults, including the zones that ruptured in the 2002 earthquakes, follow very closely (within 3%), for about 90??, an arc of a circle of radius 375 km. The center of this circle is within a few kilometers of the intersection at depth of the Patton Bay fault with the Alaskan megathrust. This inferred asperity edge may be the pole of counterclockwise

Earthquake geology along the North Anatoli Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McHugh, C. M.; Cormier, M.-H.; Seeber, L.; Cagatay, M. N.; Capotondi, L.; Polonia, A.; Lozefski, G.

2003-04-01

The feasibility of conducting submarine earthquake geology along the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) was evaluated from sediment cores and geophysical data (multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution CHIRP) recently collected from the Marmara Sea. We have successfully begun to characterize the Holocene earthquake record of the NAFZ in a small basin along the Ganos fault east of the Gelibolu peninsula, and in Izmit Gulf (west of the Hersek promontory and in the Karamürsel basin). Evidence for seismic activity was derived from mass-wasting and gravity flow deposits including homogenites (deposits >10cm thick containing turbidites with resuspended sediment above) identified from core x-rays, grain size, organic carbon, and mineralogical analyses. Deposits were correlated to the historical earthquake record of the Marmara Sea region by chronology derived from 14C, 210Pb and 137Cs. The basin near Ganos is ideal for the study of earthquake-related activity. It is deep (>50m), bisected by the fault, and isolated from other basins and distal from fluvial and alluvial fan input that may include weather-related events. Yet, its sedimentation rates are very high (>2m/1000 years). Homogenites, have been tentatively correlated to the 1912 Ganos earthquake and to the mid-1960's and mid-1800's Saros Gulf earthquakes. The Ganos earthquake ruptured the entire 50km long segment across the Gelibolu peninsula plus submarine portions on either side. If the timing of these events is correct, it suggests frequent seismic activity for this region. On the Gulf of Izmit, west of Hersek, sandy-mass flows containing soft sediment deformation such as recumbent folds and sand injections have been linked to the 1509 earthquake. Historical records indicate that the segment of the NAFZ in the Hersek Peninsula ruptured during this earthquake and our findings suggest that the rupture may have continued beneath the Izmit Gulf. In the eastern portion of the Karamürsel basin, sandy turbidites have

The growth of geological structures by repeated earthquakes: 2, Field examples of continental dip-slip faults

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stein, R.S.; King, G.C.P.; Rundle, J.B.

1988-01-01

A strong test of our understanding of the earthquake cycle is the ability to reproduce extant faultbounded geological structures, such as basins and ranges, which are built by repeated cycles of deformation. Three examples are considered for which the structure and fault geometry are well known: the White Wolf reverse fault in California, site of the 1952 Kern County M=7.3 earthquake, the Lost River normal fault in Idaho, site of the 1983 Borah Peak M=7.0 earthquake, and the Cricket Mountain normal fault in Utah, site of Quaternary slip events. Basin stratigraphy and seismic reflection records are used to profile the structure, and coseismic deformation measured by leveling surveys is used to estimate the fault geometry. To reproduce these structures, we add the deformation associated with the earthquake cycle (the coseismic slip and postseismic relaxation) to the flexure caused by the observed sediment load, treating the crust as a thin elastic plate overlying a fluid substrate. -from Authors

High-resolution seismic profiling reveals faulting associated with the 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley earthquake (Utah, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bruno, Pier Paolo G.; Duross, Christopher; Kokkalas, Sotirios

2017-01-01

The 1934 Ms 6.6 Hansel Valley, Utah, earthquake produced an 8-km-long by 3-km-wide zone of north-south−trending surface deformation in an extensional basin within the easternmost Basin and Range Province. Less than 0.5 m of purely vertical displacement was measured at the surface, although seismologic data suggest mostly strike-slip faulting at depth. Characterization of the origin and kinematics of faulting in the Hansel Valley earthquake is important to understand how complex fault ruptures accommodate regions of continental extension and transtension. Here, we address three questions: (1) How does the 1934 surface rupture compare with faults in the subsurface? (2) Are the 1934 fault scarps tectonic or secondary features? (3) Did the 1934 earthquake have components of both strike-slip and dip-slip motion? To address these questions, we acquired a 6.6-km-long, high-resolution seismic profile across Hansel Valley, including the 1934 ruptures. We observed numerous east- and west-dipping normal faults that dip 40°−70° and offset late Quaternary strata from within a few tens of meters of the surface down to a depth of ∼1 km. Spatial correspondence between the 1934 surface ruptures and subsurface faults suggests that ruptures associated with the earthquake are of tectonic origin. Our data clearly show complex basin faulting that is most consistent with transtensional tectonics. Although the kinematics of the 1934 earthquake remain underconstrained, we interpret the disagreement between surface (normal) and subsurface (strike-slip) kinematics as due to slip partitioning during fault propagation and to the effect of preexisting structural complexities. We infer that the 1934 earthquake occurred along an ∼3-km wide, off-fault damage zone characterized by distributed deformation along small-displacement faults that may be alternatively activated during different earthquake episodes.

Modeling of fluid injection and withdrawal induced fault activation using discrete element based hydro-mechanical and dynamic coupled simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoon, Jeoung Seok; Zang, Arno; Zimmermann, Günter; Stephansson, Ove

2016-04-01

Operation of fluid injection into and withdrawal from the subsurface for various purposes has been known to induce earthquakes. Such operations include hydraulic fracturing for shale gas extraction, hydraulic stimulation for Enhanced Geothermal System development and waste water disposal. Among these, several damaging earthquakes have been reported in the USA in particular in the areas of high-rate massive amount of wastewater injection [1] mostly with natural fault systems. Oil and gas production have been known to induce earthquake where pore fluid pressure decreases in some cases by several tens of Mega Pascal. One recent seismic event occurred in November 2013 near Azle, Texas where a series of earthquakes began along a mapped ancient fault system [2]. It was studied that a combination of brine production and waste water injection near the fault generated subsurface pressures sufficient to induced earthquakes on near-critically stressed faults. This numerical study aims at investigating the occurrence mechanisms of such earthquakes induced by fluid injection [3] and withdrawal by using hydro-geomechanical coupled dynamic simulator (Itasca's Particle Flow Code 2D). Generic models are setup to investigate the sensitivity of several parameters which include fault orientation, frictional properties, distance from the injection well to the fault, amount of fluid withdrawal around the injection well, to the response of the fault systems and the activation magnitude. Fault slip movement over time in relation to the diffusion of pore pressure is analyzed in detail. Moreover, correlations between the spatial distribution of pore pressure change and the locations of induced seismic events and fault slip rate are investigated. References [1] Keranen KM, Weingarten M, Albers GA, Bekins BA, Ge S, 2014. Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection, Science 345, 448, DOI: 10.1126/science.1255802. [2] Hornbach MJ, DeShon HR

Deformation of conjugate compliant fault zones induced by the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, Rishabh; Wang, Teng; Feng, Guangcai; Harrington, Jonathan; Vasyura-Bathke, Hannes; Jónsson, Sigurjón

2017-04-01

Strain localizations in compliant fault zones (with elastic moduli lower than the surrounding rocks) induced by nearby earthquakes have been detected using geodetic observations in a few cases in the past. Here we observe small-scale changes in interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements along multiple conjugate faults near the rupture of the 2013 Mw7.7 Baluchistan (Pakistan) earthquake. After removing the main coseismic deformation signal in the interferograms and correcting them for topography-related phase, we observe 2-3 cm signal along several conjugate faults that are 15-30 km from the mainshock fault rupture. These conjugate compliant faults have strikes of N30°E and N45°W. The sense of motion indicates left-lateral deformation across the N30°E faults and right-lateral deformation across the N45°W faults, which suggests the conjugate faults were subjected to extensional coseismic stresses along the WSW-ENE direction. The spacing between the different sets of faults is around 5 to 8 km. We explain the observed strain localizations as an elastic response of the compliant conjugate faults induced by the Baluchistan earthquake. Using 3D Finite Element models (FEM), we impose coseismic static displacements due to the earthquake along the boundaries of the FEM domain to reproduce the coseismic stress changes acting across the compliant faults. The InSAR measurements are used to constrain the geometry and rigidity variations of the compliant faults with respect to the surrounding rocks. The best fitting models show the compliant fault zones to have a width of 0.5 km to 2 km and a reduction of the shear modulus by a factor of 3 to 4. Our study yields similar values as were found for compliant fault zones near the 1992 Landers and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquakes in California, although here the strain localization is occurring on more complex conjugate sets of faults.

Viscoelasticity, postseismic slip, fault interactions, and the recurrence of large earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

2005-01-01

The Brownian Passage Time (BPT) model for earthquake recurrence is modified to include transient deformation due to either viscoelasticity or deep post seismic slip. Both of these processes act to increase the rate of loading on the seismogenic fault for some time after a large event. To approximate these effects, a decaying exponential term is added to the BPT model's uniform loading term. The resulting interevent time distributions remain approximately lognormal, but the balance between the level of noise (e.g., unknown fault interactions) and the coefficient of variability of the interevent time distribution changes depending on the shape of the loading function. For a given level of noise in the loading process, transient deformation has the effect of increasing the coefficient of variability of earthquake interevent times. Conversely, the level of noise needed to achieve a given level of variability is reduced when transient deformation is included. Using less noise would then increase the effect of known fault interactions modeled as stress or strain steps because they would be larger with respect to the noise. If we only seek to estimate the shape of the interevent time distribution from observed earthquake occurrences, then the use of a transient deformation model will not dramatically change the results of a probability study because a similar shaped distribution can be achieved with either uniform or transient loading functions. However, if the goal is to estimate earthquake probabilities based on our increasing understanding of the seismogenic process, including earthquake interactions, then including transient deformation is important to obtain accurate results. For example, a loading curve based on the 1906 earthquake, paleoseismic observations of prior events, and observations of recent deformation in the San Francisco Bay region produces a 40% greater variability in earthquake recurrence than a uniform loading model with the same noise level.

Effects induced by an earthquake on its fault plane:a boundary element study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonafede, Maurizio; Neri, Andrea

2000-04-01

Mechanical effects left by a model earthquake on its fault plane, in the post-seismic phase, are investigated employing the `displacement discontinuity method'. Simple crack models, characterized by the release of a constant, unidirectional shear traction are investigated first. Both slip components-parallel and normal to the traction direction-are found to be non-vanishing and to depend on fault depth, dip, aspect ratio and fault plane geometry. The rake of the slip vector is similarly found to depend on depth and dip. The fault plane is found to suffer some small rotation and bending, which may be responsible for the indentation of a transform tectonic margin, particularly if cumulative effects are considered. Very significant normal stress components are left over the shallow portion of the fault surface after an earthquake: these are tensile for thrust faults, compressive for normal faults and are typically comparable in size to the stress drop. These normal stresses can easily be computed for more realistic seismic source models, in which a variable slip is assigned; normal stresses are induced in these cases too, and positive shear stresses may even be induced on the fault plane in regions of high slip gradient. Several observations can be explained from the present model: low-dip thrust faults and high-dip normal faults are found to be facilitated, according to the Coulomb failure criterion, in repetitive earthquake cycles; the shape of dip-slip faults near the surface is predicted to be upward-concave; and the shallower aftershock activity generally found in the hanging block of a thrust event can be explained by `unclamping' mechanisms.

Kinematics, mechanics, and potential earthquake hazards for faults in Pottawatomie County, Kansas, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ohlmacher, G.C.; Berendsen, P.

2005-01-01

Many stable continental regions have subregions with poorly defined earthquake hazards. Analysis of minor structures (folds and faults) in these subregions can improve our understanding of the tectonics and earthquake hazards. Detailed structural mapping in Pottawatomie County has revealed a suite consisting of two uplifted blocks aligned along a northeast trend and surrounded by faults. The first uplift is located southwest of the second. The northwest and southeast sides of these uplifts are bounded by northeast-trending right-lateral faults. To the east, both uplifts are bounded by north-trending reverse faults, and the first uplift is bounded by a north-trending high-angle fault to the west. The structural suite occurs above a basement fault that is part of a series of north-northeast-trending faults that delineate the Humboldt Fault Zone of eastern Kansas, an integral part of the Midcontinent Rift System. The favored kinematic model is a contractional stepover (push-up) between echelon strike-slip faults. Mechanical modeling using the boundary element method supports the interpretation of the uplifts as contractional stepovers and indicates that an approximately east-northeast maximum compressive stress trajectory is responsible for the formation of the structural suite. This stress trajectory suggests potential activity during the Laramide Orogeny, which agrees with the age of kimberlite emplacement in adjacent Riley County. The current stress field in Kansas has a N85??W maximum compressive stress trajectory that could potentially produce earthquakes along the basement faults. Several epicenters of seismic events (faults, is similar to that mapped in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and both areas currently feature roughly east-west maximum

Understanding Earthquake Fault Systems Using QuakeSim Analysis and Data Assimilation Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Donnellan, Andrea; Parker, Jay; Glasscoe, Margaret; Granat, Robert; Rundle, John; McLeod, Dennis; Al-Ghanmi, Rami; Grant, Lisa

2008-01-01

We are using the QuakeSim environment to model interacting fault systems. One goal of QuakeSim is to prepare for the large volumes of data that spaceborne missions such as DESDynI will produce. QuakeSim has the ability to ingest distributed heterogenous data in the form of InSAR, GPS, seismicity, and fault data into various earthquake modeling applications, automating the analysis when possible. Virtual California simulates interacting faults in California. We can compare output from long time history Virtual California runs with the current state of strain and the strain history in California. In addition to spaceborne data we will begin assimilating data from UAVSAR airborne flights over the San Francisco Bay Area, the Transverse Ranges, and the Salton Trough. Results of the models are important for understanding future earthquake risk and for providing decision support following earthquakes. Improved models require this sensor web of different data sources, and a modeling environment for understanding the combined data.

Fracture Modes and Identification of Fault Zones in Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Scientific Drilling Boreholes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, C.; Pan, H.; Zhao, P.; Qin, R.; Peng, L.

2017-12-01

After suffering from the disaster of Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008, scientists are eager to figure out the structure of formation, the geodynamic processes of faults and the mechanism of earthquake in Wenchuan by drilling five holes into the Yingxiu-Beichuan fault zone and Anxian-Guanxian fault zone. Fractures identification and in-situ stress determination can provide abundant information for formation evaluation and earthquake study. This study describe all the fracture modes in the five boreholes on the basis of cores and image logs, and summarize the response characteristics of fractures in conventional logs. The results indicate that the WFSD boreholes encounter enormous fractures, including natural fractures and induced fractures, and high dip-angle conductive fractures are the most common fractures. The maximum horizontal stress trends along the borehole are deduced as NWW-SEE according to orientations of borehole breakouts and drilling-induced fractures, which is nearly parallel to the strikes of the younger natural fracture sets. Minor positive deviations of AC (acoustic log) and negative deviation of DEN (density log) demonstrate their responses to fracture, followed by CNL (neutron log), resistivity logs and GR (gamma ray log) at different extent of intensity. Besides, considering the fact that the reliable methods for identifying fracture zone, like seismic, core recovery and image logs, can often be hampered by their high cost and limited application, this study propose a method by using conventional logs, which are low-cost and available in even old wells. We employ wavelet decomposition to extract the high frequency information of conventional logs and reconstruction a new log in special format of enhance fracture responses and eliminate nonfracture influence. Results reveal that the new log shows obvious deviations in fault zones, which confirm the potential of conventional logs in fracture zone identification.

Earthquake Swarm Along the San Andreas Fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977.

PubMed

McNally, K C; Kanamori, H; Pechmann, J C; Fuis, G

1978-09-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude fault near Palmdale, California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 8(1/4)+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown.

Earthquake swarm along the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, Southern California, 1976 to 1977

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mcnally, K.C.; Kanamori, H.; Pechmann, J.C.; Fuis, G.

1978-01-01

Between November 1976 and November 1977 a swarm of small earthquakes (local magnitude ??? 3) occurred on or near the San Andreas fault near Palmdale, California. This swarm was the first observed along this section of the San Andreas since cataloging of instrumental data began in 1932. The activity followed partial subsidence of the 35-centimeter vertical crustal uplift known as the Palmdale bulge along this "locked" section of the San Andreas, which last broke in the great (surface-wave magnitude = 81/4+) 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. The swarm events exhibit characteristics previously observed for some foreshock sequences, such as tight clustering of hypocenters and time-dependent rotations of stress axes inferred from focal mechanisms. However, because of our present lack of understanding of the processes that precede earthquake faulting, the implications of the swarm for future large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault are unknown. Copyright ?? 1978 AAAS.

Computing and Visualizing the Complex Dynamics of Earthquake Fault Systems: Towards Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J.; Rundle, P.; Donnellan, A.; Li, P.

2003-12-01

We consider the problem of the complex dynamics of earthquake fault systems, and whether numerical simulations can be used to define an ensemble forecasting technology similar to that used in weather and climate research. To effectively carry out such a program, we need 1) a topological realistic model to simulate the fault system; 2) data sets to constrain the model parameters through a systematic program of data assimilation; 3) a computational technology making use of modern paradigms of high performance and parallel computing systems; and 4) software to visualize and analyze the results. In particular, we focus attention of a new version of our code Virtual California (version 2001) in which we model all of the major strike slip faults extending throughout California, from the Mexico-California border to the Mendocino Triple Junction. We use the historic data set of earthquakes larger than magnitude M > 6 to define the frictional properties of all 654 fault segments (degrees of freedom) in the model. Previous versions of Virtual California had used only 215 fault segments to model the strike slip faults in southern California. To compute the dynamics and the associated surface deformation, we use message passing as implemented in the MPICH standard distribution on a small Beowulf cluster consisting of 10 cpus. We are also planning to run the code on significantly larger machines so that we can begin to examine much finer spatial scales of resolution, and to assess scaling properties of the code. We present results of simulations both as static images and as mpeg movies, so that the dynamical aspects of the computation can be assessed by the viewer. We also compute a variety of statistics from the simulations, including magnitude-frequency relations, and compare these with data from real fault systems.

Active faulting in apparently stable peninsular India: Rift inversion and a Holocene-age great earthquake on the Tapti Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Copley, Alex; Mitra, Supriyo; Sloan, R. Alastair; Gaonkar, Sharad; Reynolds, Kirsty

2014-08-01

We present observations of active faulting within peninsular India, far from the surrounding plate boundaries. Offset alluvial fan surfaces indicate one or more magnitude 7.6-8.4 thrust-faulting earthquakes on the Tapti Fault (Maharashtra, western India) during the Holocene. The high ratio of fault displacement to length on the alluvial fan offsets implies high stress-drop faulting, as has been observed elsewhere in the peninsula. The along-strike extent of the fan offsets is similar to the thickness of the seismogenic layer, suggesting a roughly equidimensional fault rupture. The subsiding footwall of the fault is likely to have been responsible for altering the continental-scale drainage pattern in central India and creating the large west flowing catchment of the Tapti river. A preexisting sedimentary basin in the uplifting hanging wall implies that the Tapti Fault was active as a normal fault during the Mesozoic and has been reactivated as a thrust, highlighting the role of preexisting structures in determining the rheology and deformation of the lithosphere. The slip sense of faults and earthquakes in India suggests that deformation south of the Ganges foreland basin is driven by the compressive force transmitted between India and the Tibetan Plateau. The along-strike continuation of faulting to the east of the Holocene ruptures we have studied represents a significant seismic hazard in central India.

Absence of earthquake correlation with Earth tides: An indication of high preseismic fault stress rate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vidale, J.E.; Agnew, D.C.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Oppenheimer, D.H.

1998-01-01

Because the rate of stress change from the Earth tides exceeds that from tectonic stress accumulation, tidal triggering of earthquakes would be expected if the final hours of loading of the fault were at the tectonic rate and if rupture began soon after the achievement of a critical stress level. We analyze the tidal stresses and stress rates on the fault planes and at the times of 13,042 earthquakes which are so close to the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in California that we may take the fault plane to be known. We find that the stresses and stress rates from Earth tides at the times of earthquakes are distributed in the same way as tidal stresses and stress rates at random times. While the rate of earthquakes when the tidal stress promotes failure is 2% higher than when the stress does not, this difference in rate is not statistically significant. This lack of tidal triggering implies that preseismic stress rates in the nucleation zones of earthquakes are at least 0.15 bar/h just preceding seismic failure, much above the long-term tectonic stress rate of 10-4 bar/h.

Magnetotelluric Studies of Fault Zones Surrounding the 2016 Pawnee, Oklahoma Earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, R. L.; Key, K.; Atekwana, E. A.

2016-12-01

Since 2008, there has been a dramatic increase in earthquake activity in the central United States in association with major oil and gas operations. Oklahoma is now considered one the most seismically active states. Although seismic networks are able to detect activity and map its locus, they are unable to image the distribution of fluids in the fault responsible for triggering seismicity. Electrical geophysical methods are ideally suited to image fluid bearing faults since the injected waste-waters are highly saline and hence have a high electrical conductivity. To date, no study has imaged the fluids in the faults in Oklahoma and made a direct link to the seismicity. The 2016 M5.8 Pawnee, Oklahoma earthquake provides an unprecedented opportunity for scientists to provide that link. Several injection wells are located within a 20 km radius of the epicenter; and studies have suggested that injection of fluids in high-volume wells can trigger earthquakes as far away as 30 km. During late October to early November, 2016, we are collecting magnetotelluric (MT) data with the aim of constraining the distribution of fluids in the fault zone. The MT technique uses naturally occurring electric and magnetic fields measured at Earth's surface to measure conductivity structure. We plan to carry out a series of short two-dimensional (2D) profiles of wideband MT acquisition located through areas where the fault recently ruptured and seismic activity is concentrated and also across the faults in the vicinity that did not rupture. The integration of our results and ongoing seismic studies will lead to a better understanding of the links between fluid injection and seismicity.

Dynamic rupture scenarios from Sumatra to Iceland - High-resolution earthquake source physics on natural fault systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabriel, A. A.; Madden, E. H.; Ulrich, T.; Wollherr, S.

2016-12-01

Capturing the observed complexity of earthquake sources in dynamic rupture simulations may require: non-linear fault friction, thermal and fluid effects, heterogeneous fault stress and strength initial conditions, fault curvature and roughness, on- and off-fault non-elastic failure. All of these factors have been independently shown to alter dynamic rupture behavior and thus possibly influence the degree of realism attainable via simulated ground motions. In this presentation we will show examples of high-resolution earthquake scenarios, e.g. based on the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake and a potential rupture of the Husavik-Flatey fault system in Northern Iceland. The simulations combine a multitude of representations of source complexity at the necessary spatio-temporal resolution enabled by excellent scalability on modern HPC systems. Such simulations allow an analysis of the dominant factors impacting earthquake source physics and ground motions given distinct tectonic settings or distinct focuses of seismic hazard assessment. Across all simulations, we find that fault geometry concurrently with the regional background stress state provide a first order influence on source dynamics and the emanated seismic wave field. The dynamic rupture models are performed with SeisSol, a software package based on an ADER-Discontinuous Galerkin scheme for solving the spontaneous dynamic earthquake rupture problem with high-order accuracy in space and time. Use of unstructured tetrahedral meshes allows for a realistic representation of the non-planar fault geometry, subsurface structure and bathymetry. The results presented highlight the fact that modern numerical methods are essential to further our understanding of earthquake source physics and complement both physic-based ground motion research and empirical approaches in seismic hazard analysis.

How does the 2010 El Mayor - Cucapah Earthquake Rupture Connect to the Southern California Plate Boundary Fault System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnellan, A.; Ben-Zion, Y.; Arrowsmith, R.

2016-12-01

The Pacific - North American plate boundary in southern California is marked by several major strike slip faults. The 2010 M7.2 El Mayor - Cucapah earthquake ruptured 120 km of upper crust in Baja California to the US-Mexico border. The earthquake triggered slip along an extensive network of faults in the Salton Trough from the Mexican border to the southern end of the San Andreas fault. Earthquakes >M5 were triggered in the gap between the Laguna Salada and Elsinore faults at Ocotillo and on the Coyote Creek segment of the San Jacinto fault 20 km northwest of Borrego Springs. UAVSAR observations, collected since October of 2009, measure slip associated with the M5.7 Ocotillo aftershock with deformation continuing into 2014. The Elsinore fault has been remarkably quiet, however, with only M5.0 and M5.2 earthquakes occurring on the Coyote Mountains segment of the fault in 1940 and 1968 respectively. In contrast, the Imperial Valley has been quite active historically with numerous moderate events occurring since 1935. Moderate event activity is increasing along the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ), especially the trifurcation area, where 6 of 12 historic earthquakes in this 20 km long fault zone have occurred since 2000. However, no recent deformation has been detected using UAVSAR measurements in this area, including the recent M5.2 June 2016 Borrego earthquake. Does the El Mayor - Cucapah rupture connect to and transfer stress primarily to a single southern California fault or several? What is its role relative to the background plate motion? UAVSAR observations indicate that the southward extension of the Elsinore fault has recently experienced the most localized deformation. Seismicity suggests that the San Jacinto fault is more active than neighboring major faults, and geologic evidence suggests that the Southern San Andreas fault has been the major plate boundary fault in southern California. Topographic data with 3-4 cm resolution using structure from motion from

Modeling earthquake sequences along the Manila subduction zone: Effects of three-dimensional fault geometry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Hongyu; Liu, Yajing; Yang, Hongfeng; Ning, Jieyuan

2018-05-01

To assess the potential of catastrophic megathrust earthquakes (MW > 8) along the Manila Trench, the eastern boundary of the South China Sea, we incorporate a 3D non-planar fault geometry in the framework of rate-state friction to simulate earthquake rupture sequences along the fault segment between 15°N-19°N of northern Luzon. Our simulation results demonstrate that the first-order fault geometry heterogeneity, the transitional-segment (possibly related to the subducting Scarborough seamount chain) connecting the steeper south segment and the flatter north segment, controls earthquake rupture behaviors. The strong along-strike curvature at the transitional-segment typically leads to partial ruptures of MW 8.3 and MW 7.8 along the southern and northern segments respectively. The entire fault occasionally ruptures in MW 8.8 events when the cumulative stress in the transitional-segment is sufficiently high to overcome the geometrical inhibition. Fault shear stress evolution, represented by the S-ratio, is clearly modulated by the width of seismogenic zone (W). At a constant plate convergence rate, a larger W indicates on average lower interseismic stress loading rate and longer rupture recurrence period, and could slow down or sometimes stop ruptures that initiated from a narrower portion. Moreover, the modeled interseismic slip rate before whole-fault rupture events is comparable with the coupling state that was inferred from the interplate seismicity distribution, suggesting the Manila trench could potentially rupture in a M8+ earthquake.

Using focal mechanism solutions to correlate earthquakes with faults in the Lake Tahoe-Truckee area, California and Nevada, and to help design LiDAR surveys for active-fault reconnaissance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cronin, V. S.; Lindsay, R. D.

2011-12-01

Geomorphic analysis of hillshade images produced from aerial LiDAR data has been successful in identifying youthful fault traces. For example, the recently discovered Polaris fault just northwest of Lake Tahoe, California/Nevada, was recognized using LiDAR data that had been acquired by local government to assist land-use planning. Subsequent trenching by consultants under contract to the US Army Corps of Engineers has demonstrated Holocene displacement. The Polaris fault is inferred to be capable of generating a magnitude 6.4-6.9 earthquake, based on its apparent length and offset characteristics (Hunter and others, 2011, BSSA 101[3], 1162-1181). Dingler and others (2009, GSA Bull 121[7/8], 1089-1107) describe paleoseismic or geomorphic evidence for late Neogene displacement along other faults in the area, including the West Tahoe-Dollar Point, Stateline-North Tahoe, and Incline Village faults. We have used the seismo-lineament analysis method (SLAM; Cronin and others, 2008, Env Eng Geol 14[3], 199-219) to establish a tentative spatial correlation between each of the previously mentioned faults, as well as with segments of the Dog Valley fault system, and one or more earthquake(s). The ~18 earthquakes we have tentatively correlated with faults in the Tahoe-Truckee area occurred between 1966 and 2008, with magnitudes between 3 and ~6. Given the focal mechanism solution for a well-located shallow-focus earthquake, the nodal planes can be projected to Earth's surface as represented by a DEM, plus-or-minus the vertical and horizontal uncertainty in the focal location, to yield two seismo-lineament swaths. The trace of the fault that generated the earthquake is likely to be found within one of the two swaths [1] if the fault surface is emergent, and [2] if the fault surface is approximately planar in the vicinity of the focus. Seismo-lineaments from several of the earthquakes studied overlap in a manner that suggests they are associated with the same fault. The surface

Modeling Crustal Deformation Due to the Landers, Hector Mine Earthquakes Using the SCEC Community Fault Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gable, C. W.; Fialko, Y.; Hager, B. H.; Plesch, A.; Williams, C. A.

2006-12-01

More realistic models of crustal deformation are possible due to advances in measurements and modeling capabilities. This study integrates various data to constrain a finite element model of stress and strain in the vicinity of the 1992 Landers earthquake and the 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. The geometry of the model is designed to incorporate the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), Community Fault Model (CFM) to define fault geometry. The Hector Mine fault is represented by a single surface that follows the trace of the Hector Mine fault, is vertical and has variable depth. The fault associated with the Landers earthquake is a set of seven surfaces that capture the geometry of the splays and echelon offsets of the fault. A three dimensional finite element mesh of tetrahedral elements is built that closely maintains the geometry of these fault surfaces. The spatially variable coseismic slip on faults is prescribed based on an inversion of geodetic (Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System) data. Time integration of stress and strain is modeled with the finite element code Pylith. As a first step the methodology of incorporating all these data is described. Results of the time history of the stress and strain transfer between 1992 and 1999 are analyzed as well as the time history of deformation from 1999 to the present.

Identification of repeating earthquakes and spatio-temporal variations of fault zone properties around the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault and the central Calaveras fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, P.; Peng, Z.

2008-12-01

We systemically identify repeating earthquakes and investigate spatio-temporal variations of fault zone properties associated with the 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquake along the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault, and the 1984 Mw6.2 Morgan Hill earthquake along the central Calaveras fault. The procedure for identifying repeating earthquakes is based on overlapping of the source regions and the waveform similarity, and is briefly described as follows. First, we estimate the source radius of each event based on a circular crack model and a normal stress drop of 3 MPa. Next, we compute inter-hypocentral distance for events listed in the relocated catalog of Thurber et al. (2006) around Parkfield, and Schaff et al. (2002) along the Calaveras fault. Then, we group all events into 'initial' clusters by requiring the separation distance between each event pair to be less than the source radius of larger event, and their magnitude difference to be less than 1. Next, we calculate the correlation coefficients between every event pair within each 'initial' cluster using a 3-s time window around the direct P waves for all available stations. The median value of the correlation coefficients is used as a measure of similarity between each event pair. We drop an event if the median similarity to the rest events in that cluster is less than 0.9. After identifying repeating clusters in both regions, our next step is to apply a sliding window waveform cross-correlation technique (Niu et al., 2003; Peng and Ben-Zion, 2006) to calculate the delay time and decorrelation index for each repeating cluster. By measuring temporal changes in waveforms of repeating clusters at different locations and depth, we hope to obtain a better constraint on spatio-temporal variations of fault zone properties and near-surface layers associated with the occurrence of major earthquakes.

Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes at the Spring Lake and North Creek Sites on the Wasatch Fault Zone: Evidence for complex rupture of the Nephi Segment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duross, Christopher; Hylland, Michael D.; Hiscock, Adam; Personius, Stephen; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Beukelman, Gregg; McDonald, Geg N; Erickson, Ben; McKean, Adam; Angster, Steve; King, Roselyn; Crone, Anthony J.; Mahan, Shannon

2017-01-01

The Nephi segment of the Wasatch fault zone (WFZ) comprises two fault strands, the northern and southern strands, which have evidence of recurrent late Holocene surface-faulting earthquakes. We excavated paleoseismic trenches across these strands to refine and expand their Holocene earthquake chronologies; improve estimates of earthquake recurrence, displacement, and fault slip rate; and assess whether the strands rupture separately or synchronously in large earthquakes. Paleoseismic data from the Spring Lake site expand the Holocene record of earthquakes on the northern strand: at least five to seven earthquakes ruptured the Spring Lake site at 0.9 ± 0.2 ka (2σ), 2.9 ± 0.7 ka, 4.0 ± 0.5 ka, 4.8 ± 0.8 ka, 5.7 ± 0.8 ka, 6.6 ± 0.7 ka, and 13.1 ± 4.0 ka, yielding a Holocene mean recurrence of ~1.2–1.5 kyr and vertical slip rate of ~0.5–0.8 mm/yr. Paleoseismic data from the North Creek site help refine the Holocene earthquake chronology for the southern strand: at least five earthquakes ruptured the North Creek site at 0.2 ± 0.1 ka (2σ), 1.2 ± 0.1 ka, 2.6 ± 0.9 ka, 4.0 ± 0.1 ka, and 4.7 ± 0.7 ka, yielding a mean recurrence of 1.1–1.3 kyr and vertical slip rate of ~1.9–2.0 mm/yr. We compare these Spring Lake and North Creek data with previous paleoseismic data for the Nephi segment and report late Holocene mean recurrence intervals of ~1.0–1.2 kyr for the northern strand and ~1.1–1.3 kyr for the southern strand. The northern and southern strands have similar late Holocene earthquake histories, which allow for models of both independent and synchronous rupture. However, considering the earthquake timing probabilities and per-event vertical displacements, we have the greatest confidence in the simultaneous rupture of the strands, including rupture of one strand with spillover rupture to the other. Ultimately, our results improve the surface-faulting earthquake history of the Nephi segment and enhance our understanding of how structural barriers

Earthquake bursts and fault branching: lessons from the Carmel fault branch (CFB) of the Dead Sea Transform (DST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agnon, A.; Rockwell, T. K.; Stein, S.; Raphael, K.

2017-12-01

The DST, accommodating most of the displacement across the boundary zone between the Arabian and Sinai plates, is an ideal plate boundary on which to study earthquake sequences because of 1) a long (>2 kyr) record of historical earthquakes (corroborated and extended several millennia back with ancient ruins); 2) deformed sediments and rockfalls, offering datable archives of strong shaking at various distances from the fault, spanning 300 kyr; 3) a moderate fault slip rate, allowing separation and dating of individual earthquakes for comparison to the historical record, and 4) a growing body of paleoseismic trench data on both timing and displacement across some sectors of the fault. Here we explore the role of a secondary fault branch on clustering using a new approach for the analysis of earthquake bursts. The CFZ is a ≥100 km long shear zone, branching northwestward from the N-S trending Jordan Valley segment of the DST. GPS monitoring of the CFZ indicates a slip rate of <1 mm/yr, absorbing up to 20% of the slip between Arabia Plate and the Sinai-Levant Block across the DST. CFZ seismicity is recorded by three datasets with different time scales and maximum magnitudes: 1) Instrumental seismicity, M≤5.3 (1984); 2) Historic documents suggesting a M>6 event in 363 CE, with ruins distributed up to 100 km from the CFZ; 3) 5 ka cave deposits showing damage greater than from any subsequent earthquake, implying 6The CFZ branch events interact with ruptures on the main DST. At 5 ka destruction was widespread along the DST. The 363 CE earthquake was accompanied by another event in the Arava Valley. The pair skipped the 100 km long Dead Sea segment of the DST. An earlier pair in the northern Levant preceded that pair by several decades: 303 & 347 CE, following a two-century long quiescence, and a harbinger for a shaky millennium. We suggest that the 363 CE pair reflects a rare state that enables a CFZ rupture. This oblique branch is unfavorably oriented for slip under

Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rizza, M.; Ritz, J.-F.; Braucher, R.; Vassallo, R.; Prentice, C.; Mahan, S.; McGill, S.; Chauvet, A.; Marco, S.; Todbileg, M.; Demberel, S.; Bourles, D.

2011-01-01

We carried out morphotectonic studies along the left-lateral strike-slip Bogd Fault, the principal structure involved in the Gobi-Altay earthquake of 1957 December 4 (published magnitudes range from 7.8 to 8.3). The Bogd Fault is 260 km long and can be subdivided into five main geometric segments, based on variation in strike direction. West to East these segments are, respectively: the West Ih Bogd (WIB), The North Ih Bogd (NIB), the West Ih Bogd (WIB), the West Baga Bogd (WBB) and the East Baga Bogd (EBB) segments. Morphological analysis of offset streams, ridges and alluvial fans-particularly well preserved in the arid environment of the Gobi region-allows evaluation of late Quaternary slip rates along the different faults segments. In this paper, we measure slip rates over the past 200 ka at four sites distributed across the three western segments of the Bogd Fault. Our results show that the left-lateral slip rate is ~1 mm yr-1 along the WIB and EIB segments and ~0.5 mm yr-1 along the NIB segment. These variations are consistent with the restraining bend geometry of the Bogd Fault. Our study also provides additional estimates of the horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake along the western part of the Bogd rupture, complementing previously published studies. We show that the mean horizontal offset associated with the 1957 earthquake decreases progressively from 5.2 m in the west to 2.0 m in the east, reflecting the progressive change of kinematic style from pure left-lateral strike-slip faulting to left-lateral-reverse faulting. Along the three western segments, we measure cumulative displacements that are multiples of the 1957 coseismic offset, which may be consistent with a characteristic slip. Moreover, using these data, we re-estimate the moment magnitude of the Gobi-Altay earthquake at Mw 7.78-7.95. Combining our slip rate estimates and the slip distribution per event we also determined a mean recurrence interval of ~2500-5200 yr for past