Integrating Entropy-Based Naïve Bayes and GIS for Spatial Evaluation of Flood Hazard.

PubMed

Liu, Rui; Chen, Yun; Wu, Jianping; Gao, Lei; Barrett, Damian; Xu, Tingbao; Li, Xiaojuan; Li, Linyi; Huang, Chang; Yu, Jia

2017-04-01

Regional flood risk caused by intensive rainfall under extreme climate conditions has increasingly attracted global attention. Mapping and evaluation of flood hazard are vital parts in flood risk assessment. This study develops an integrated framework for estimating spatial likelihood of flood hazard by coupling weighted naïve Bayes (WNB), geographic information system, and remote sensing. The north part of Fitzroy River Basin in Queensland, Australia, was selected as a case study site. The environmental indices, including extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, net-water index, soil water retention, elevation, slope, drainage proximity, and density, were generated from spatial data representing climate, soil, vegetation, hydrology, and topography. These indices were weighted using the statistics-based entropy method. The weighted indices were input into the WNB-based model to delineate a regional flood risk map that indicates the likelihood of flood occurrence. The resultant map was validated by the maximum inundation extent extracted from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery. The evaluation results, including mapping and evaluation of the distribution of flood hazard, are helpful in guiding flood inundation disaster responses for the region. The novel approach presented consists of weighted grid data, image-based sampling and validation, cell-by-cell probability inferring and spatial mapping. It is superior to an existing spatial naive Bayes (NB) method for regional flood hazard assessment. It can also be extended to other likelihood-related environmental hazard studies. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Landslide hazard assessment: recent trends and techniques.

PubMed

Pardeshi, Sudhakar D; Autade, Sumant E; Pardeshi, Suchitra S

2013-01-01

Landslide hazard assessment is an important step towards landslide hazard and risk management. There are several methods of Landslide Hazard Zonation (LHZ) viz. heuristic, semi quantitative, quantitative, probabilistic and multi-criteria decision making process. However, no one method is accepted universally for effective assessment of landslide hazards. In recent years, several attempts have been made to apply different methods of LHZ and to compare results in order to find the best suited model. This paper presents the review of researches on landslide hazard mapping published in recent years. The advanced multivariate techniques are proved to be effective in spatial prediction of landslides with high degree of accuracy. Physical process based models also perform well in LHZ mapping even in the areas with poor database. Multi-criteria decision making approach also play significant role in determining relative importance of landslide causative factors in slope instability process. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) are powerful tools to assess landslide hazards and are being used extensively in landslide researches since last decade. Aerial photographs and high resolution satellite data are useful in detection, mapping and monitoring landslide processes. GIS based LHZ models helps not only to map and monitor landslides but also to predict future slope failures. The advancements in Geo-spatial technologies have opened the doors for detailed and accurate assessment of landslide hazards.

Evaluation of seismic design spectrum based on UHS implementing fourth-generation seismic hazard maps of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Ali; Hasan, Rafiq; Pekau, Oscar A.

2016-12-01

Two recent developments have come into the forefront with reference to updating the seismic design provisions for codes: (1) publication of new seismic hazard maps for Canada by the Geological Survey of Canada, and (2) emergence of the concept of new spectral format outdating the conventional standardized spectral format. The fourth -generation seismic hazard maps are based on enriched seismic data, enhanced knowledge of regional seismicity and improved seismic hazard modeling techniques. Therefore, the new maps are more accurate and need to incorporate into the Canadian Highway Bridge Design Code (CHBDC) for its next edition similar to its building counterpart National Building Code of Canada (NBCC). In fact, the code writers expressed similar intentions with comments in the commentary of CHBCD 2006. During the process of updating codes, NBCC, and AASHTO Guide Specifications for LRFD Seismic Bridge Design, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, Washington (2009) lowered the probability level from 10 to 2% and 10 to 5%, respectively. This study has brought five sets of hazard maps corresponding to 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years developed by the GSC under investigation. To have a sound statistical inference, 389 Canadian cities are selected. This study shows the implications of the changes of new hazard maps on the design process (i.e., extent of magnification or reduction of the design forces).

Mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor using an evidential reasoning approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ran, Youhua; Liu, Jinpeng; Tian, Feng; Wang, Dekai

2017-02-01

The Hexi Corridor is an important part of the Silk Road Economic Belt and a crucial channel for westward development in China. Many important national engineering projects pass through the corridor, such as highways, railways, and the West-to-East Gas Pipeline. The frequent torrent disasters greatly impact the security of infrastructure and human safety. In this study, an evidential reasoning approach based on Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed for mapping mountain torrent hazards in the Hexi Corridor. A torrent hazard map for the Hexi Corridor was generated by integrating the driving factors of mountain torrent disasters including precipitation, terrain, flow concentration processes, and the vegetation fraction. The results show that the capability of the proposed method is satisfactory. The torrent hazard map shows that there is high potential torrent hazard in the central and southeastern Hexi Corridor. The results are useful for engineering planning support and resource protection in the Hexi Corridor. Further efforts are discussed for improving torrent hazard mapping and prediction.

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

AWPA biodeterioration hazard map revisited

Treesearch

Grant T. Kirker; Amy B. Bishell; William J. Hickey

2017-01-01

The fungal decay hazard map used by the American Wood Protection Association (AWPA) currently describes regional decay hazards in ground contact for North America and is based on condition assessments of utility poles from the 1970’s. Current work at the USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory is underway to analyze soil and wood samples from several National...

Comparing the Performance of Commonly Available Digital Elevation Models in GIS-based Flood Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ybanez, R. L.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; David, C. P.

2016-12-01

With climatological hazards increasing globally, the Philippines is listed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to its location in the Western Pacific. Flood hazards mapping and modelling is one of the responses by local government and research institutions to help prepare for and mitigate the effects of flood hazards that constantly threaten towns and cities in floodplains during the 6-month rainy season. Available digital elevation maps, which serve as the most important dataset used in 2D flood modelling, are limited in the Philippines and testing is needed to determine which of the few would work best for flood hazards mapping and modelling. Two-dimensional GIS-based flood modelling with the flood-routing software FLO-2D was conducted using three different available DEMs from the ASTER GDEM, the SRTM GDEM, and the locally available IfSAR DTM. All other parameters kept uniform, such as resolution, soil parameters, rainfall amount, and surface roughness, the three models were run over a 129-sq. kilometer watershed with only the basemap varying. The output flood hazard maps were compared on the basis of their flood distribution, extent, and depth. The ASTER and SRTM GDEMs contained too much error and noise which manifested as dissipated and dissolved hazard areas in the lower watershed where clearly delineated flood hazards should be present. Noise on the two datasets are clearly visible as erratic mounds in the floodplain. The dataset which produced the only feasible flood hazard map is the IfSAR DTM which delineates flood hazard areas clearly and properly. Despite the use of ASTER and SRTM with their published resolution and accuracy, their use in GIS-based flood modelling would be unreliable. Although not as accessible, only IfSAR or better datasets should be used for creating secondary products from these base DEM datasets. For developing countries which are most prone to hazards, but with limited choices for basemaps used in hazards studies, the caution must be taken in the use of globally available GDEMs and higher-resolution DEMs must always be sought.

Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2010-01-01

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

Maps Showing Seismic Landslide Hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Michael, John A.

2009-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =~300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazard zones were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.

2014-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazards were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Using hazard maps to identify and eliminate workplace hazards: a union-led health and safety training program.

PubMed

Anderson, Joe; Collins, Michele; Devlin, John; Renner, Paul

2012-01-01

The Institute for Sustainable Work and Environment and the Utility Workers Union of America worked with a professional evaluator to design, implement, and evaluate the results of a union-led system of safety-based hazard identification program that trained workers to use hazard maps to identify workplace hazards and target them for elimination. The evaluation documented program implementation and impact using data collected from both qualitative interviews and an on-line survey from worker trainers, plant managers, and health and safety staff. Managers and workers reported that not only were many dangerous hazards eliminated as a result of hazard mapping, some of which were long-standing, difficult-to-resolve issues, but the evaluation also documented improved communication between union members and management that both workers and managers agreed resulted in better, more sustainable hazard elimination.

Concept of a spatial data infrastructure for web-mapping, processing and service provision for geo-hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weinke, Elisabeth; Hölbling, Daniel; Albrecht, Florian; Friedl, Barbara

2017-04-01

Geo-hazards and their effects are distributed geographically over wide regions. The effective mapping and monitoring is essential for hazard assessment and mitigation. It is often best achieved using satellite imagery and new object-based image analysis approaches to identify and delineate geo-hazard objects (landslides, floods, forest fires, storm damages, etc.). At the moment, several local/national databases and platforms provide and publish data of different types of geo-hazards as well as web-based risk maps and decision support systems. Also, the European commission implemented the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) in 2015 that publishes information about natural and man-made disasters and risks. Currently, no platform for landslides or geo-hazards as such exists that enables the integration of the user in the mapping and monitoring process. In this study we introduce the concept of a spatial data infrastructure for object delineation, web-processing and service provision of landslide information with the focus on user interaction in all processes. A first prototype for the processing and mapping of landslides in Austria and Italy has been developed within the project Land@Slide, funded by the Austrian Research Promotion Agency FFG in the Austrian Space Applications Program ASAP. The spatial data infrastructure and its services for the mapping, processing and analysis of landslides can be extended to other regions and to all types of geo-hazards for analysis and delineation based on Earth Observation (EO) data. The architecture of the first prototypical spatial data infrastructure includes four main areas of technical components. The data tier consists of a file storage system and the spatial data catalogue for the management of EO-data, other geospatial data on geo-hazards, as well as descriptions and protocols for the data processing and analysis. An interface to extend the data integration from external sources (e.g. Sentinel-2 data) is planned for the possibility of rapid mapping. The server tier consists of java based web and GIS server. Sub and main services are part of the service tier. Sub services are for example map services, feature editing services, geometry services, geoprocessing services and metadata services. For (meta)data provision and to support data interoperability, web standards of the OGC and the rest-interface is used. Four central main services are designed and developed: (1) a mapping service (including image segmentation and classification approaches), (2) a monitoring service to monitor changes over time, (3) a validation service to analyze landslide delineations from different sources and (4) an infrastructure service to identify affected landslides. The main services use and combine parts of the sub services. Furthermore, a series of client applications based on new technology standards making use of the data and services offered by the spatial data infrastructure. Next steps include the design to extend the current spatial data infrastructure to other areas and geo-hazard types to develop a spatial data infrastructure that can assist targeted mapping and monitoring of geo-hazards on a global context.

A new multi-disciplinary model for the assessment and reduction of volcanic risk: the example of the island of Vulcano, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simicevic, Aleksandra; Bonadonna, Costanza; di Traglia, Federico; Rosi, Mauro

2010-05-01

Volcanic eruptions are accompanied by numerous hazards which pose short- and long-term threats to people and property. Recent experiences have shown that successful responses to hazard events correlate strongly with the degree to which proactive policies of risk reduction are already in place before an eruption occurs. Effective proactive risk-reduction strategies require contributions from numerous disciplines. A volcanic eruption is not a hazard, per se, but rather an event capable of producing a variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, lahars, landslides, gas release, and tsunamis) that can affect the built environment in a variety of ways, over different time scales and with different degrees of intensity. Our proposed model for the assessment and mitigation of exposure-based volcanic risk is mainly based on the compilation of three types of maps: hazard maps, hazard-specific vulnerability maps and exposure-based risk maps. Hazard maps identify the spatial distribution of individual volcanic hazard and it includes both event analysis and impact analysis. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps represent the systematic evaluation of physical vulnerability of the built environment to a range of volcanic phenomena, i.e. spatial distribution of buildings vulnerable to a given hazard based on the analysis of selected building elements. Buildings are classified on the basis of their major components that are relevant for different volcanic hazards, their strength, their construction materials and are defined taking into account the potential damage that each group of building elements (e.g. walls, roof, load-bearing structure) will suffer under a volcanic hazard. All those factors are enumerated in a checklist and are used for the building survey. Hazard-specific vulnerability maps are then overlapped with hazard maps in order to compile exposure-based risk maps and so quantify the potential damage. Such quantification is the starting point of the identification of suitable mitigation measures which will be analyzed through a cost-benefit analysis to assess their financial feasibility. Information about public networks is also recorded in order to give an overall idea of the built environment condition of the island. The vulnerability assessment of the technical systems describes the potential damages that could stress systems like electricity supply, water distribution, communication networks or transport systems. These damages can also be described as function disruption of the system. The important aspect is not only the physical capacity of a system to resist, but also its capacity to continue functioning. The model will be tested on the island of Vulcano in southern Italy. Vulcano is characterized by clear signs of volcanic unrest and is the type locality for a deadly style of eruption. The main active system of Vulcano Island (La Fossa cone) is known to produce a variety of eruption styles and intensities, each posing their own hazards and threats. Six different hazard scenarios have been identified based on a detailed stratigraphic work. The urbanization on Vulcano took place in the 1980s with no real planning and its population mostly subsists on tourism. Our preliminary results show that Vulcano is not characterized by a great variability of architectural typologies and construction materials. Three main types of buildings are present (masonry with concrete frame, masonry with manufactured stone units, masonry with hollow clay bricks) and no statistically significant trends were found between physical and morphological characteristics. The recent signs of volcanic unrest combined with a complex vulnerability of the island due to an uncontrolled urban development and a significant seasonal variation of the exposed population in summer months result in a high volcanic risk. As a result, Vulcano represents the ideal environment to test a multi-hazard based risk model and to study the transition between micro (building) and macro (urban environment) scale of analysis, which is still an unexplored field in the study of volcanic risk. Different levels of vulnerability need to be analyzed in order to increase the level of preparedness, plan a potential evacuation, manage a potential volcanic crisis and assess the best mitigation measures to put in place and reduce the volcanic risk.

Toward Building a New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z.

2015-12-01

At present, the only publicly available seismic hazard model for mainland China was generated by Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program in 1999. We are building a new seismic hazard model by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data using the methodology recommended by Global Earthquake Model (GEM), and derive a strain rate map based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones based on seismotectonics. For each zone, we use the tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) relationship to model the seismicity rates. We estimate the TGR a- and b-values from the historical earthquake data, and constrain corner magnitude using the seismic moment rate derived from the strain rate. From the TGR distributions, 10,000 to 100,000 years of synthetic earthquakes are simulated. Then, we distribute small and medium earthquakes according to locations and magnitudes of historical earthquakes. Some large earthquakes are distributed on active faults based on characteristics of the faults, including slip rate, fault length and width, and paleoseismic data, and the rest to the background based on the distributions of historical earthquakes and strain rate. We evaluate available ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) by comparison to observed ground motions. To apply appropriate GMPEs, we divide the region into active and stable tectonics. The seismic hazard will be calculated using the OpenQuake software developed by GEM. To account for site amplifications, we construct a site condition map based on geology maps. The resulting new seismic hazard map can be used for seismic risk analysis and management, and business and land-use planning.

Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: Examples from Honduras and Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

2009-01-01

Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002).

Mapping debris-flow hazard in Honolulu using a DEM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellen, Stephen D.; Mark, Robert K.; ,

1993-01-01

A method for mapping hazard posed by debris flows has been developed and applied to an area near Honolulu, Hawaii. The method uses studies of past debris flows to characterize sites of initiation, volume at initiation, and volume-change behavior during flow. Digital simulations of debris flows based on these characteristics are then routed through a digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate degree of hazard over the area.

Qualitative landslide susceptibility assessment by multicriteria analysis: A case study from San Antonio del Sur, Guantánamo, Cuba

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos Abella, Enrique A.; Van Westen, Cees J.

Geomorphological information can be combined with decision-support tools to assess landslide hazard and risk. A heuristic model was applied to a rural municipality in eastern Cuba. The study is based on a terrain mapping units (TMU) map, generated at 1:50,000 scale by interpretation of aerial photos, satellite images and field data. Information describing 603 terrain units was collected in a database. Landslide areas were mapped in detail to classify the different failure types and parts. Three major landslide regions are recognized in the study area: coastal hills with rockfalls, shallow debris flows and old rotational rockslides denudational slopes in limestone, with very large deep-seated rockslides related to tectonic activity and the Sierra de Caujerí scarp, with large rockslides. The Caujerí scarp presents the highest hazard, with recent landslides and various signs of active processes. The different landforms and the causative factors for landslides were analyzed and used to develop the heuristic model. The model is based on weights assigned by expert judgment and organized in a number of components such as slope angle, internal relief, slope shape, geological formation, active faults, distance to drainage, distance to springs, geomorphological subunits and existing landslide zones. From these variables a hierarchical heuristic model was applied in which three levels of weights were designed for classes, variables, and criteria. The model combines all weights into a single hazard value for each pixel of the landslide hazard map. The hazard map was then divided by two scales, one with three classes for disaster managers and one with 10 detailed hazard classes for technical staff. The range of weight values and the number of existing landslides is registered for each class. The resulting increasing landslide density with higher hazard classes indicates that the output map is reliable. The landslide hazard map was used in combination with existing information on buildings and infrastructure to prepare a qualitative risk map. The complete lack of historical landslide information and geotechnical data precludes the development of quantitative deterministic or probabilistic models.

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guzzetti, F.; Reichenbach, P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2003-01-01

Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857-2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 ?? 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60??, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard. ?? European Geosciences Union 2003.

Insights into earthquake hazard map performance from shaking history simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Vanneste, K.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2017-12-01

Why recent large earthquakes caused shaking stronger than predicted by earthquake hazard maps is under debate. This issue has two parts. Verification involves how well maps implement probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) ("have we built the map right?"). Validation asks how well maps forecast shaking ("have we built the right map?"). We explore how well a map can ideally perform by simulating an area's shaking history and comparing "observed" shaking to that predicted by a map generated for the same parameters. The simulations yield shaking distributions whose mean is consistent with the map, but individual shaking histories show large scatter. Infrequent large earthquakes cause shaking much stronger than mapped, as observed. Hence, PSHA seems internally consistent and can be regarded as verified. Validation is harder because an earthquake history can yield shaking higher or lower than that predicted while being consistent with the hazard map. The scatter decreases for longer observation times because the largest earthquakes and resulting shaking are increasingly likely to have occurred. For the same reason, scatter is much less for the more active plate boundary than for a continental interior. For a continental interior, where the mapped hazard is low, even an M4 event produces exceedances at some sites. Larger earthquakes produce exceedances at more sites. Thus many exceedances result from small earthquakes, but infrequent large ones may cause very large exceedances. However, for a plate boundary, an M6 event produces exceedance at only a few sites, and an M7 produces them in a larger, but still relatively small, portion of the study area. As reality gives only one history, and a real map involves assumptions about more complicated source geometries and occurrence rates, which are unlikely to be exactly correct and thus will contribute additional scatter, it is hard to assess whether misfit between actual shaking and a map — notably higher-than-mapped shaking — arises by chance or reflects biases in the map. Due to this problem, there are limits to how well we can expect hazard maps to predict future shaking, as well as to our ability to test the performance of a hazard map based on available observations.

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahi Ghasre Aboonasr, Sedigheh; Zamani, Ahmad; Razavipour, Fatemeh; Boostani, Reza

2017-08-01

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, slope, active tectonic and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Raed; Adris, Ahmad; Singh, Ramesh

2016-07-01

In the present work, we discuss the use of an integrated remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques for evaluation of seismic hazard areas in Syria. The present study is the first time effort to create seismic hazard map with the help of GIS. In the proposed approach, we have used Aster satellite data, digital elevation data (30 m resolution), earthquake data, and active tectonic maps. Many important factors for evaluation of seismic hazard were identified and corresponding thematic data layers (past earthquake epicenters, active faults, digital elevation model, and slope) were generated. A numerical rating scheme has been developed for spatial data analysis using GIS to identify ranking of parameters to be included in the evaluation of seismic hazard. The resulting earthquake potential map delineates the area into different relative susceptibility classes: high, moderate, low and very low. The potential earthquake map was validated by correlating the obtained different classes with the local probability that produced using conventional analysis of observed earthquakes. Using earthquake data of Syria and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) data is introduced to the model to develop final seismic hazard map based on Gutenberg-Richter (a and b values) parameters and using the concepts of local probability and recurrence time. The application of the proposed technique in Syrian region indicates that this method provides good estimate of seismic hazard map compared to those developed from traditional techniques (Deterministic (DSHA) and probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA). For the first time we have used numerous parameters using remote sensing and GIS in preparation of seismic hazard map which is found to be very realistic.

Microzonation Mapping Of The Yanbu Industrial City, Western Saudi Arabia: A Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moustafa, Sayed, Sr.; Alarifi, Nassir S.; Lashin, Aref A.

2016-04-01

Urban areas along the western coast of Saudi Arabia are susceptible to natural disasters and environmental damages due to lack of planning. To produce a site-specific microzonation map of the rapidly growing Yanbu industrial city, spatial distribution of different hazard entities are assessed using the Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP) together with Geographical Information System (GIS). For this purpose six hazard parameter layers are considered, namely; fundamental frequency, site amplification, soil strength in terms of effective shear-wave velocity, overburden sediment thickness, seismic vulnerability index and peak ground acceleration. The weight and rank values are determined during AHP and are assigned to each layer and its corresponding classes, respectively. An integrated seismic microzonation map was derived using GIS platform. Based on the derived map, the study area is classified into five hazard categories: very low, low, moderate high, and very high. The western and central parts of the study area, as indicated from the derived microzonation map, are categorized as a high hazard zone as compared to other surrounding places. The produced microzonation map of the current study is envisaged as a first-level assessment of the site specific hazards in the Yanbu city area, which can be used as a platform by different stakeholders in any future land-use planning and environmental hazard management.

Methodologies For A Physically Based Rockfall Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliardi, F.; Crosta, G. B.; Guzzetti, F.; Marian, M.

Rockfall hazard assessment is an important land planning tool in alpine areas, where settlements progressively expand across rockfall prone areas, rising the vulnerability of the elements at risk, the worth of potential losses and the restoration costs. Nev- ertheless, hazard definition is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. In addition, the high mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope insta- bilities for which runout is minimal. When coping with rockfalls, hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". The local occurrence probability must derive from the combination of the triggering probability (related to the geomechanical susceptibility of rock masses to fail) and the transit or impact probability at a given location (related to the motion of falling blocks). The intensity (or magnitude) of a rockfall is a complex function of mass, velocity and fly height of involved blocks that can be defined in many different ways depending on the adopted physical description and "destructiveness" criterion. This work is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of numerical modelling performed by an original 3D rockfall simulation program. This is based on a kinematic algorithm and allows the spatially distributed simulation of rockfall motions on a three-dimensional topography described by a DTM. The code provides raster maps portraying the max- imum frequency of transit, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. The results of some three dimensional rockfall models, performed at both regional and lo- cal scale in areas where rockfall related problems are well known, have been used to assess rockfall hazard, by adopting an objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing a positional "hazard index". Different hazard maps have been ob- tained combining and classifying variables in different ways. The performance of the different hazard maps has been evaluated on the basis of past rockfall events and com- pared to the results of existing methodologies. The sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.

Challenges in making a seismic hazard map for Alaska and the Aleutians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.; Mueller, C.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Freymueller, J.T.

2008-01-01

We present a summary of the data and analyses leading to the revision of the time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians. These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data, and reflect best current judgments about methodology and approach. They have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States, and will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. We present example maps for peak ground acceleration, 0.2 s spectral amplitude (SA), and 1.0 s SA at a probability level of 2% in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404). In this summary, we emphasize issues encountered in preparation of the maps that motivate or require future investigation and research.

Issues in testing the new national seismic hazard model for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stein, S.; Peresan, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.; Brooks, E. M.; Spencer, B. D.

2016-12-01

It is important to bear in mind that we know little about how earthquake hazard maps actually describe the shaking that will actually occur in the future, and have no agreed way of assessing how well a map performed in the past, and, thus, whether one map performs better than another. Moreover, we should not forget that different maps can be useful for different end users, who may have different cost-and-benefit strategies. Thus, regardless of the specific tests we chose to use, the adopted testing approach should have several key features: We should assess map performance using all the available instrumental, paleo seismology, and historical intensity data. Instrumental data alone span a period much too short to capture the largest earthquakes - and thus strongest shaking - expected from most faults. We should investigate what causes systematic misfit, if any, between the longest record we have - historical intensity data available for the Italian territory from 217 B.C. to 2002 A.D. - and a given hazard map. We should compare how seismic hazard maps developed over time. How do the most recent maps for Italy compare to earlier ones? It is important to understand local divergences that show how the models are developing to the most recent one. The temporal succession of maps is important: we have to learn from previous errors. We should use the many different tests that have been proposed. All are worth trying, because different metrics of performance show different aspects of how a hazard map performs and can be used. We should compare other maps to the ones we are testing. Maps can be made using a wide variety of assumptions, which will lead to different predicted shaking. It is possible that maps derived by other approaches may perform better. Although Italian current codes are based on probabilistic maps, it is important from both a scientific and societal perspective to look at all options including deterministic scenario based ones. Comparing what works better, according to different performance measures, will give valuable insight into key map parameters and assumptions. We may well find that different maps perform better in different applications.

Hazards mapping using local and scientific knowledge. A case in rural Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solis, B.; Bocco, G.

2016-12-01

Natural hazards in rural areas in developing countries usually affect poor peasants and their infrastructure. This poses a problem of social vulnerability that coupled to the risk may cause severe hazards. Research oriented to prevention and adaptation is crucial. Other studies have proved that local knowledge and peasant's perception on hazards is a valuable tool to tackle prevention and mitigation. In the valley of Huahua river, at the Pacific coast of Mexico, landslides have directly affected rural roads hampering communication between villages. In addition some of their deposits have changed the morphology of river channels, resulting in flooding and avalanches threatening rural life and assets. At least 21 landslides are still active in the area. In this research the leading questions are: how do people perceive landslides hazard? What is the knowledge possessed by villagers facing such hazards? Could scientific and local knowledge be coupled in a hybrid format to formulate an adequate hazards map? The investigation used ethnographic techniques (participant observation, semi-structured and structured interviews, and participatory mapping) and multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data. We will present the preliminary results, based principally on interview data and a first hazard zoning of the lower valley of the Huahua River. Our results suggest that the approach can be used in this and similar areas in developing countries.

Landslide hazard mapping with selected dominant factors: A study case of Penang Island, Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tay, Lea Tien; Alkhasawneh, Mutasem Sh.; Ngah, Umi Kalthum

Landslide is one of the destructive natural geohazards in Malaysia. In addition to rainfall as triggering factos for landslide in Malaysia, topographical and geological factors play important role in the landslide susceptibility analysis. Conventional topographic factors such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature and profile curvature have been considered as landslide causative factors in many research works. However, other topographic factors such as diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity have not been considered, especially for the research work in landslide hazard analysis in Malaysia. This paper presents landslide hazard mapping using Frequency Ratio (FR) and themore » study area is Penang Island of Malaysia. Frequency ratio approach is a variant of probabilistic method that is based on the observed relationships between the distribution of landslides and each landslide-causative factor. Landslide hazard map of Penang Island is produced by considering twenty-two (22) landslide causative factors. Among these twenty-two (22) factors, fourteen (14) factors are topographic factors. They are elevation, slope gradient, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, general curvature, tangential curvature, longitudinal curvature, cross section curvature, total curvature, diagonal length, surface area, surface roughness and rugosity. These topographic factors are extracted from the digital elevation model of Penang Island. The other eight (8) non-topographic factors considered are land cover, vegetation cover, distance from road, distance from stream, distance from fault line, geology, soil texture and rainfall precipitation. After considering all twenty-two factors for landslide hazard mapping, the analysis is repeated with fourteen dominant factors which are selected from the twenty-two factors. Landslide hazard map was segregated into four categories of risks, i.e. Highly hazardous area, Hazardous area, Moderately hazardous area and Not hazardous area. The maps was assessed using ROC (Rate of Curve) based on the area under the curve method (AUC). The result indicates an increase of accuracy from 77.76% (with all 22 factors) to 79.00% (with 14 dominant factors) in the prediction of landslide occurrence.« less

ShakeMap Atlas 2.0: an improved suite of recent historical earthquake ShakeMaps for global hazard analyses and loss model calibration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, D.; Mah, R.T.; Johnson, K.L.; Hearne, M.G.; Marano, K.D.; Lin, K.-W.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We introduce the second version of the U.S. Geological Survey ShakeMap Atlas, which is an openly-available compilation of nearly 8,000 ShakeMaps of the most significant global earthquakes between 1973 and 2011. This revision of the Atlas includes: (1) a new version of the ShakeMap software that improves data usage and uncertainty estimations; (2) an updated earthquake source catalogue that includes regional locations and finite fault models; (3) a refined strategy to select prediction and conversion equations based on a new seismotectonic regionalization scheme; and (4) vastly more macroseismic intensity and ground-motion data from regional agencies All these changes make the new Atlas a self-consistent, calibrated ShakeMap catalogue that constitutes an invaluable resource for investigating near-source strong ground-motion, as well as for seismic hazard, scenario, risk, and loss-model development. To this end, the Atlas will provide a hazard base layer for PAGER loss calibration and for the Earthquake Consequences Database within the Global Earthquake Model initiative.

Arrhythmic hazard map for a 3D whole-ventricles model under multiple ion channel block.

PubMed

Okada, Jun-Ichi; Yoshinaga, Takashi; Kurokawa, Junko; Washio, Takumi; Furukawa, Tetsushi; Sawada, Kohei; Sugiura, Seiryo; Hisada, Toshiaki

2018-05-10

To date, proposed in silico models for preclinical cardiac safety testing are limited in their predictability and usability. We previously reported a multi-scale heart simulation that accurately predicts arrhythmogenic risk for benchmark drugs. We extend this approach and report the first comprehensive hazard map of drug-induced arrhythmia based on the exhaustive in silico electrocardiogram (ECG) database of drug effects, developed using a petaflop computer. A total of 9075 electrocardiograms constitute the five-dimensional hazard map, with coordinates representing the extent of the block of each of the five ionic currents (rapid delayed rectifier potassium current (IKr), fast (INa) and late (INa,L) components of the sodium current, L-type calcium current (ICa,L) and slow delayed rectifier current (IKs)), involved in arrhythmogenesis. Results of the evaluation of arrhythmogenic risk based on this hazard map agreed well with the risk assessments reported in three references. ECG database also suggested that the interval between the J-point and the T-wave peak is a superior index of arrhythmogenicity compared to other ECG biomarkers including the QT interval. Because concentration-dependent effects on electrocardiograms of any drug can be traced on this map based on in vitro current assay data, its arrhythmogenic risk can be evaluated without performing costly and potentially risky human electrophysiological assays. Hence, the map serves as a novel tool for use in pharmaceutical research and development. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Geospatial Approach on Landslide Hazard Zonation Mapping Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Study on Coonoor and Ooty, Part of Kallar Watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahamana, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.

2014-12-01

Landslides are one of the critical natural phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly area, resulting to loss of human life and property, as well as causing severe damage to natural resources. The local geology with high degree of slope coupled with high intensity of rainfall along with unplanned human activities of the study area causes many landslides in this region. The present study area is more attracted by tourist throughout the year, so this area must be considered for preventive measures. Geospatial based Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide vulnerability and hazard zonation mapping. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this present study, it is used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to prepare landslide hazard zones of the Coonoor and Ooty, part of Kallar watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu. The study was carried out using remote sensing data, field surveys and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The ten factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, drainage density, lineament density, soil, precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from road and NDVI were considered. These factors layers were extracted from the various related spatial data's. These factors were evaluated, and then, the individual factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the related factors. The Landslide Hazard Zone Index (LHZI) was calculated using Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) the technique based on the assigned weight and the rating is given by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The final cumulative map of the study area was categorized into four hazard zones and classified as zone I to IV. There are 3.56% of the area comes under the hazard zone IV fallowed by 48.19% of the area comes under zone III, 43.63 % of the area in zone II and 4.61% of the area comes hazard zone I. Further resulted hazard zone map and landuse/landcover map are overlaid to check the hazard status, and existing inventory of known landslides within the present study area was compared with the resulting vulnerable and hazard zone maps. The landslide hazard zonation map is useful for landslide hazard prevention, mitigation, and improvement to society, and proper planning for land use and construction in the future.

Building Better Volcanic Hazard Maps Through Scientific and Stakeholder Collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Calder, E.

2015-12-01

All across the world information about natural hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunami is shared and communicated using maps that show which locations are potentially exposed to hazards of varying intensities. Unlike earthquakes and tsunami, which typically produce one dominant hazardous phenomenon (ground shaking and inundation, respectively) volcanic eruptions can produce a wide variety of phenomena that range from near-vent (e.g. pyroclastic flows, ground shaking) to distal (e.g. volcanic ash, inundation via tsunami), and that vary in intensity depending on the type and location of the volcano. This complexity poses challenges in depicting volcanic hazard on a map, and to date there has been no consistent approach, with a wide range of hazard maps produced and little evaluation of their relative efficacy. Moreover, in traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map that is then presented to stakeholders. This one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication does not necessarily translate into effective hazard education, or, as tragically demonstrated by Nevado del Ruiz, Columbia in 1985, its use in risk mitigation by civil authorities. Furthermore, messages taken away from a hazard map can be strongly influenced by its visual design. Thus, hazard maps are more likely to be useful, usable and used if relevant stakeholders are engaged during the hazard map process to ensure a) the map is designed in a relevant way and b) the map takes into account how users interpret and read different map features and designs. The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk has recently launched a Hazard Mapping Working Group to collate some of these experiences in graphically depicting volcanic hazard from around the world, including Latin America and the Caribbean, with the aim of preparing some Considerations for Producing Volcanic Hazard Maps that may help map makers in the future.

The Cellular Automata for modelling of spreading of lava flow on the earth surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarna, A.

2012-12-01

Volcanic risk assessment is a very important scientific, political and economic issue in densely populated areas close to active volcanoes. Development of effective tools for early prediction of a potential volcanic hazard and management of crises are paramount. However, to this date volcanic hazard maps represent the most appropriate way to illustrate the geographical area that can potentially be affected by a volcanic event. Volcanic hazard maps are usually produced by mapping out old volcanic deposits, however dynamic lava flow simulation gaining popularity and can give crucial information to corroborate other methodologies. The methodology which is used here for the generation of volcanic hazard maps is based on numerical simulation of eruptive processes by the principle of Cellular Automata (CA). The python script is integrated into ArcToolbox in ArcMap (ESRI) and the user can select several input and output parameters which influence surface morphology, size and shape of the flow, flow thickness, flow velocity and length of lava flows. Once the input parameters are selected, the software computes and generates hazard maps on the fly. The results can be exported to Google Maps (.klm format) to visualize the results of the computation. For validation of the simulation code are used data from a real lava flow. Comparison of the simulation results with real lava flows mapped out from satellite images will be presented.

Water Induced Hazard Mapping in Nepal: A Case Study of East Rapti River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neupane, N.

2010-12-01

This paper presents illustration on typical water induced hazard mapping of East Rapti River Basin under the DWIDP, GON. The basin covers an area of 2398 sq km. The methodology includes making of base map of water induced disaster in the basin. Landslide hazard maps were prepared by SINMAP approach. Debris flow hazard maps were prepared by considering geology, slope, and saturation. Flood hazard maps were prepared by using two approaches: HEC-RAS and Satellite Imagery Interpretation. The composite water-induced hazard maps were produced by compiling the hazards rendered by landslide, debris flow, and flood. The monsoon average rainfall in the basin is 1907 mm whereas maximum 24 hours precipitation is 456.8 mm. The peak discharge of the Rapati River in the year of 1993 at station was 1220 cu m/sec. This discharge nearly corresponds to the discharge of 100-year return period. The landslides, floods, and debris flows triggered by the heavy rain of July 1993 claimed 265 lives, affected 148516 people, and damaged 1500 houses in the basin. The field investigation and integrated GIS interpretation showed that the very high and high landslide hazard zones collectively cover 38.38% and debris flow hazard zone constitutes 6.58%. High flood hazard zone occupies 4.28% area of the watershed. Mitigation measures are recommendated according to Integrated Watershed Management Approach under which the non-structural and structural measures are proposed. The non-structural measures includes: disaster management training, formulation of evacuation system (arrangement of information plan about disaster), agriculture management practices, protection of water sources, slope protections and removal of excessive bed load from the river channel. Similarly, structural measures such as dike, spur, rehabilitation of existing preventive measures and river training at some locations are recommendated. The major factors that have contributed to induce high incidences of various types of mass movements and inundation in the basin are rock and soil properties, prolonged and high-intensity rainfall, steep topography and various anthropogenic factors.

Mapping Natech risk due to earthquakes using RAPID-N

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2013-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations are an emerging risk with possibly serious consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires or explosions. For the reduction of Natech risk, one of the highest priority needs is the identification of Natech-prone areas and the systematic assessment of Natech risks. With hardly any Natech risk maps existing within the EU the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed a Natech risk analysis and mapping tool called RAPID-N, that estimates the overall risk of natural-hazard impact to industrial installations and its possible consequences. The results are presented as risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, RAPID-N focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. The RAPID-N methodology is based on the estimation of on-site natural hazard parameters, use of fragility curves to determine damage probabilities of plant units for various damage states, and the calculation of spatial extent, severity, and probability of Natech events potentially triggered by the natural hazard. The methodology was implemented as a web-based risk assessment and mapping software tool which allows easy data entry, rapid local or regional risk assessment and mapping. RAPID-N features an innovative property estimation framework to calculate on-site natural hazard parameters, industrial plant and plant unit characteristics, and hazardous substance properties. Custom damage states and fragility curves can be defined for different types of plant units. Conditional relationships can be specified between damage states and Natech risk states, which describe probable Natech event scenarios. Natech consequences are assessed using a custom implementation of U.S. EPA's Risk Management Program (RMP) Guidance for Offsite Consequence Analysis methodology. This custom implementation is based on the property estimation framework and allows the easy modification of model parameters and the substitution of equations with alternatives. RAPID-N can be applied at different stages of the Natech risk management process: It allows on the one hand the analysis of hypothetical Natech scenarios to prevent or prepare for a Natech accident by supporting land-use and emergency planning. On the other hand, once a natural disaster occurs RAPID-N can be used for rapidly locating facilities with potential Natech accident damage based on actual natural-hazard information. This provides a means to warn the population in the vicinity of the facilities in a timely manner. This presentation will introduce the specific features of RAPID-N and show the use of the tool by application to a case-study area.

A stereo-vision hazard-detection algorithm to increase planetary lander autonomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woicke, Svenja; Mooij, Erwin

2016-05-01

For future landings on any celestial body, increasing the lander autonomy as well as decreasing risk are primary objectives. Both risk reduction and an increase in autonomy can be achieved by including hazard detection and avoidance in the guidance, navigation, and control loop. One of the main challenges in hazard detection and avoidance is the reconstruction of accurate elevation models, as well as slope and roughness maps. Multiple methods for acquiring the inputs for hazard maps are available. The main distinction can be made between active and passive methods. Passive methods (cameras) have budgetary advantages compared to active sensors (radar, light detection and ranging). However, it is necessary to proof that these methods deliver sufficiently good maps. Therefore, this paper discusses hazard detection using stereo vision. To facilitate a successful landing not more than 1% wrong detections (hazards that are not identified) are allowed. Based on a sensitivity analysis it was found that using a stereo set-up at a baseline of ≤ 2 m is feasible at altitudes of ≤ 200 m defining false positives of less than 1%. It was thus shown that stereo-based hazard detection is an effective means to decrease the landing risk and increase the lander autonomy. In conclusion, the proposed algorithm is a promising candidate for future landers.

New mapping technologies - mapping and imaging from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blom, R. G.

2000-01-01

New and significantly enhanced space based observational capabiities are available which are of potential use to the hazards community. In combination with existing methodologies, these instruments and data can significantly enhance and extend current procedures for seismic zonation and hazards evaluation. This paper provides a brief overview of several of the more useful data sets available.

Volcanic Hazards Survey in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abrams, Michael; Siebe, Claus; Macias, Jose Luis

1996-01-01

We have assembled a digital mosaic of 11 Landsat Thematic images to serve as a mapping base for reconnaissance activities within the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt. This will aid us in interpretation and in the evaluation of potential activity of all the volcanic centers there. One result is a volcanic hazards map of the area.

Regional landslide-hazard assessment for Seattle, Washington, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, R.L.; Coe, J.A.; Godt, J.W.; Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; Savage, W.Z.; Schulz, W.H.; Brien, D.L.; Chleborad, A.F.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

2005-01-01

Landslides are a widespread, frequent, and costly hazard in Seattle and the Puget Sound area of Washington State, USA. Shallow earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common type of landslide in the area; many transform into debris flows and cause significant property damage or disrupt transportation. Large rotational and translational slides, though less common, also cause serious property damage. The hundreds of landslides that occurred during the winters of 1995-96 and 1996-97 stimulated renewed interest by Puget Sound communities in identifying landslide-prone areas and taking actions to reduce future landslide losses. Informal partnerships between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the City of Seattle, and private consultants are focusing on the problem of identifying and mapping areas of landslide hazard as well as characterizing temporal aspects of the hazard. We have developed GIS-based methods to map the probability of landslide occurrence as well as empirical rainfall thresholds and physically based methods to forecast times of landslide occurrence. Our methods for mapping landslide hazard zones began with field studies and physically based models to assess relative slope stability, including the effects of material properties, seasonal groundwater levels, and rainfall infiltration. We have analyzed the correlation between historic landslide occurrence and relative slope stability to map the degree of landslide hazard. The City of Seattle is using results of the USGS studies in storm preparedness planning for emergency access and response, planning for development or redevelopment of hillsides, and municipal facility planning and prioritization. Methods we have developed could be applied elsewhere to suit local needs and available data.

Map Your Hazards! - an Interdisciplinary, Place-Based Educational Approach to Assessing Natural Hazards, Social Vulnerability, Risk and Risk Perception.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, B. D.; McMullin-Messier, P. A.; Schlegel, M. E.

2014-12-01

'Map your Hazards' is an educational module developed within the NSF Interdisciplinary Teaching about Earth for a Sustainable Future program (InTeGrate). The module engages students in place-based explorations of natural hazards, social vulnerability, and the perception of natural hazards and risk. Students integrate geoscience and social science methodologies to (1) identify and assess hazards, vulnerability and risk within their communities; (2) distribute, collect and evaluate survey data (designed by authors) on the knowledge, risk perception and preparedness within their social networks; and (3) deliver a PPT presentation to local stakeholders detailing their findings and recommendations for development of a prepared, resilient community. 'Map your Hazards' underwent four rigorous assessments by a team of geoscience educators and external review before being piloted in our classrooms. The module was piloted in a 300-level 'Volcanoes and Society' course at Boise State University, a 300-level 'Environmental Sociology' course at Central Washington University, and a 100-level 'Natural Disasters and Environmental Geology' course at the College of Western Idaho. In all courses students reported a fascination with learning about the hazards around them and identifying the high risk areas in their communities. They were also surprised at the low level of knowledge, inaccurate risk perception and lack of preparedness of their social networks. This successful approach to engaging students in an interdisciplinary, place-based learning environment also has the broad implications of raising awareness of natural hazards (survey participants are provided links to local hazard and preparedness information). The data and preparedness suggestions can be shared with local emergency managers, who are encouraged to attend the student's final presentations. All module materials are published at serc.carleton.edu/integrate/ and are appropriate to a wide range of classrooms.

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ney, B.; Askari, M.

2009-04-01

Evaluation Seismicity west of block-lut for Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Shahdad ,Iran Behnoosh Neyestani , Mina Askari Students of Science and Research University,Iran. Seismic Hazard Assessment has been done for Shahdad city in this study , and four maps (Kerman-Bam-Nakhil Ab-Allah Abad) has been prepared to indicate the Deterministic estimate of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in this area. Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment has been preformed for a region in eastern Iran (Shahdad) based on the available geological, seismological and geophysical information and seismic zoning map of region has been constructed. For this assessment first Seimotectonic map of study region in a radius of 100km is prepared using geological maps, distribution of historical and instrumental earthquake data and focal mechanism solutions it is used as the base map for delineation of potential seismic sources. After that minimum distance, for every seismic sources until site (Shahdad) and maximum magnitude for each source have been determined. In Shahdad ,according to results, peak ground acceleration using the Yoshimitsu Fukushima &Teiji Tanaka'1990 attenuation relationship is estimated to be 0.58 g, that is related to the movement of nayband fault with distance 2.4km of the site and maximum magnitude Ms=7.5.

Landslide and flood hazard assessment in urban areas of Levoča region (Eastern Slovakia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magulova, Barbora; Caporali, Enrica; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

The case study presents the use of statistical methods and analysis tools, for hazard assessment of "urbanization units", implemented in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. As a case study, the Levoča region (Slovakia) is selected. The region, with a total area of about 351 km2, is widely affected by landslides and floods. The problem, for small urbanization areas, is nowadays particularly significant from the socio-economic point of view. It is considered, presently, also an increasing problem, mainly because of climate change and more frequent extreme rainfall events. The geo-hazards are evaluated using a multivariate analysis. The landslide hazard assessment is based on the comparison and subsequent statistical elaboration of territorial dependence among different input factors influencing the instability of the slopes. Particularly, five factors influencing slope stability are evaluated, i.e. lithology, slope aspect, slope angle, hypsographic level and present land use. As a result a new landslide susceptibility map is compiled and different zones of stable, dormant and non-stable areas are defined. For flood hazard map a detailed digital elevation model is created. A compose index of flood hazard is derived from topography, land cover and pedology related data. To estimate flood discharge, time series of stream flow and precipitation measurements are used. The assessment results are prognostic maps of landslide hazard and flood hazard, which presents the optimal base for urbanization planning.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Belknap County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle DTM...Agriculture Imag- ery Program (NAIP) color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data...found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map accuracy. NH GRANIT is

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Coos County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Technical Partner DEM Digital Elevation Model DFIRM Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle...color Digital Orthophoto Quadrangles (DOQs)). Remote sensing, base map information, GIS data (for example, contour data, E911 data, Digital Elevation...the feature types found on USGS topographic maps. More recently developed data were derived from digital orthophotos providing improved base map

Assessment of Three Flood Hazard Mapping Methods: A Case Study of Perlis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan Mohd Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Flood is a common natural disaster and also affect the all state in Malaysia. Regarding to Drainage and Irrigation Department (DID) in 2007, about 29, 270 km2 or 9 percent of region of the country is prone to flooding. Flood can be such devastating catastrophic which can effected to people, economy and environment. Flood hazard mapping can be used is an important part in flood assessment to define those high risk area prone to flooding. The purposes of this study are to prepare a flood hazard mapping in Perlis and to evaluate flood hazard using frequency ratio, statistical index and Poisson method. The six factors affecting the occurrence of flood including elevation, distance from the drainage network, rainfall, soil texture, geology and erosion were created using ArcGIS 10.1 software. Flood location map in this study has been generated based on flooded area in year 2010 from DID. These parameters and flood location map were analysed to prepare flood hazard mapping in representing the probability of flood area. The results of the analysis were verified using flood location data in year 2013, 2014, 2015. The comparison result showed statistical index method is better in prediction of flood area rather than frequency ratio and Poisson method.

Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

An Offline-Online Android Application for Hazard Event Mapping Using WebGIS Open Source Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

Nowadays, Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) plays an important role in better understanding and managing disaster risk reduction around the world. National and local government, NGOs and other stakeholders are increasingly seeking and producing data on hazards. Most of the hazard event inventories and land use mapping are based on remote sensing data, with little ground truthing, creating difficulties depending on the terrain and accessibility. Open Source WebGIS tools offer an opportunity for quicker and easier ground truthing of critical areas in order to analyse hazard patterns and triggering factors. This study presents a secure mobile-map application for hazard event mapping using Open Source WebGIS technologies such as Postgres database, Postgis, Leaflet, Cordova and Phonegap. The objectives of this prototype are: 1. An Offline-Online android mobile application with advanced Geospatial visualisation; 2. Easy Collection and storage of events information applied services; 3. Centralized data storage with accessibility by all the service (smartphone, standard web browser); 4. Improving data management by using active participation in hazard event mapping and storage. This application has been implemented as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events and includes geolocation (GPS data and Internet), visualizing maps with overlay of satellite images, viewing uploaded images and events as cluster points, drawing and adding event information. The data can be recorded in offline (Android device) or online version (all browsers) and consequently uploaded through the server whenever internet is available. All the events and records can be visualized by an administrator and made public after approval. Different user levels can be defined to access the data for communicating the information. This application was tested for landslides in post-earthquake Nepal but can be used for any other type of hazards such as flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, WebGIS Open source, Android, Hazard Event Mapping

Case study: Mapping tsunami hazards associated with debris flow into a reservoir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; Watts, P.; Waythomas, C.F.

2006-01-01

Debris-flow generated impulse waves (tsunamis) pose hazards in lakes, especially those used for hydropower or recreation. We describe a method for assessing tsunami-related hazards for the case in which inundation by coherent water waves, rather than chaotic splashing, is of primary concern. The method involves an experimentally based initial condition (tsunami source) and a Boussinesq model for tsunami propagation and inundation. Model results are used to create hazard maps that offer guidance for emergency planners and responders. An example application explores tsunami hazards associated with potential debris flows entering Baker Lake, a reservoir on the flanks of the Mount Baker volcano in the northwestern United States. ?? 2006 ASCE.

Terrain classification and land hazard mapping in Kalsi-Chakrata area (Garhwal Himalaya), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choubey, Vishnu D.; Litoria, Pradeep K.

Terrain classification and land system mapping of a part of the Garhwal Himalaya (India) have been used to provide a base map for land hazard evaluation, with special reference to landslides and other mass movements. The study was based on MSS images, aerial photographs and 1:50,000 scale maps, followed by detailed field-work. The area is composed of two groups of rocks: well exposed sedimentary Precambrian formations in the Himalayan Main Boundary Thrust Belt and the Tertiary molasse deposits of the Siwaliks. Major tectonic boundaries were taken as the natural boundaries of land systems. A physiographic terrain classification included slope category, forest cover, occurrence of landslides, seismicity and tectonic activity in the area.

Seismic hazard in the South Carolina coastal plain: 2002 update of the USGS national seismic hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Mays, T.W.; ,

2005-01-01

The damaging 1886 moment magnitude ???7 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake is indicative of the moderately likely earthquake activity along this portion of the Atlantic Coast. A recurrence of such an earthquake today would have serious consequences for the nation. The national seismic hazard maps produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provide a picture of the levels of seismic hazard across the nation based on the best and most current scientific information. The USGS national maps were updated in 2002 and will become part of the International Codes in 2006. In the past decade, improvements have occurred in the scientific understanding of the nature and character of earthquake activity and expected ground motions in the central and eastern U.S. The paper summarizes the new knowledge of expected earthquake locations, magnitudes, recurrence, and ground-motion decay with distance. New estimates of peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration are compared with those displayed in the 1996 national maps. The 2002 maps show increased seismic hazard in much of the coastal plain of South Carolina, but a decrease in long period (1 s and greater) hazard by up to 20% at distances of over 50 km from the Charleston earthquake zone. Although the national maps do not account for the effects of local or regional sediments, deep coastal-plain sediments can significally alter expected ground shaking, particularly at long period motions where it can be 100% higher than the national maps.

Landing Hazard Avoidance Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abernathy, Michael Franklin (Inventor); Hirsh, Robert L. (Inventor)

2016-01-01

Landing hazard avoidance displays can provide rapidly understood visual indications of where it is safe to land a vehicle and where it is unsafe to land a vehicle. Color coded maps can indicate zones in two dimensions relative to the vehicles position where it is safe to land. The map can be simply green (safe) and red (unsafe) areas with an indication of scale or can be a color coding of another map such as a surface map. The color coding can be determined in real time based on topological measurements and safety criteria to thereby adapt to dynamic, unknown, or partially known environments.

Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

2007-05-01

During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the authorities after proper review by peers. This project has been running for two years and hazards maps for the region of Parícutin and Jorullo volcanoes have been carried out. The students have been applying their knowledge and got results in a very short time and at the same time socially very important.

A probabilistic estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Algermissen, Sylvester Theodore; Perkins, David M.

1976-01-01

This paper presents a probabilistic estimate of the maximum ground acceleration to be expected from earthquakes occurring in the contiguous United States. It is based primarily upon the historic seismic record which ranges from very incomplete before 1930 to moderately complete after 1960. Geologic data, primarily distribution of faults, have been employed only to a minor extent, because most such data have not been interpreted yet with earthquake hazard evaluation in mind.The map provides a preliminary estimate of the relative hazard in various parts of the country. The report provides a method for evaluating the relative importance of the many parameters and assumptions in hazard analysis. The map and methods of evaluation described reflect the current state of understanding and are intended to be useful for engineering purposes in reducing the effects of earthquakes on buildings and other structures.Studies are underway on improved methods for evaluating the relativ( earthquake hazard of different regions. Comments on this paper are invited to help guide future research and revisions of the accompanying map.The earthquake hazard in the United States has been estimated in a variety of ways since the initial effort by Ulrich (see Roberts and Ulrich, 1950). In general, the earlier maps provided an estimate of the severity of ground shaking or damage but the frequency of occurrence of the shaking or damage was not given. Ulrich's map showed the distribution of expected damage in terms of no damage (zone 0), minor damage (zone 1), moderate damage (zone 2), and major damage (zone 3). The zones were not defined further and the frequency of occurrence of damage was not suggested. Richter (1959) and Algermissen (1969) estimated the ground motion in terms of maximum Modified Mercalli intensity. Richter used the terms "occasional" and "frequent" to characterize intensity IX shaking and Algermissen included recurrence curves for various parts of the country in the paper accompanying his map.The first probabilistic hazard maps covering portions of the United States were by Milne and Davenport (1969a). Recently, Wiggins, Hirshberg and Bronowicki (1974) prepared a probabilistic map of maximum particle velocity and Modified Mercalli intensity for the entire United States. The maps are based on an analysis of the historical seismicity. In general, geological data were not incorporated into the development of the maps.

Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Salamon, Peter; Kalas, Milan; Bianchi, Alessandra; Feyen, Luc

2016-04-01

The development of real-time methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is crucial to improve emergency response and mitigate flood impacts. This work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on the flood predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). The daily forecasts produced for the major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations, based on the hydro-meteorological dataset of EFAS. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in near real-time in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out using the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-derived flood footprints, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population is compared against modelled estimates. We evaluated the skill of flood hazard and risk estimations derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations. The assessment includes a comparison of several alternative approaches to produce and present the information content, in order to meet the requests of EFAS users. The tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Spatio Temporal Detection and Virtual Mapping of Landslide Using High-Resolution Airborne Laser Altimetry (lidar) in Densely Vegetated Areas of Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bibi, T.; Azahari Razak, K.; Rahman, A. Abdul; Latif, A.

2017-10-01

Landslides are an inescapable natural disaster, resulting in massive social, environmental and economic impacts all over the world. The tropical, mountainous landscape in generally all over Malaysia especially in eastern peninsula (Borneo) is highly susceptible to landslides because of heavy rainfall and tectonic disturbances. The purpose of the Landslide hazard mapping is to identify the hazardous regions for the execution of mitigation plans which can reduce the loss of life and property from future landslide incidences. Currently, the Malaysian research bodies e.g. academic institutions and government agencies are trying to develop a landslide hazard and risk database for susceptible areas to backing the prevention, mitigation, and evacuation plan. However, there is a lack of devotion towards landslide inventory mapping as an elementary input of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk mapping. The developing techniques based on remote sensing technologies (satellite, terrestrial and airborne) are promising techniques to accelerate the production of landslide maps, shrinking the time and resources essential for their compilation and orderly updates. The aim of the study is to provide a better perception regarding the use of virtual mapping of landslides with the help of LiDAR technology. The focus of the study is spatio temporal detection and virtual mapping of landslide inventory via visualization and interpretation of very high-resolution data (VHR) in forested terrain of Mesilau river, Kundasang. However, to cope with the challenges of virtual inventory mapping on in forested terrain high resolution LiDAR derivatives are used. This study specifies that the airborne LiDAR technology can be an effective tool for mapping landslide inventories in a complex climatic and geological conditions, and a quick way of mapping regional hazards in the tropics.

Sinkhole risk analysis from the point of view of a public building insurance, the case of Vaud County (Switzerland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicolet, P.; Choffet, M.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Lauraux, B.; Lance, J.-. L.; Champod, E.

2012-04-01

Natural hazards are being mapped in the Vaud County and sinkhole hazard is part of this process. An preliminary hazard map has already been made based on the sinkholes occurrences and on several other parameters such as rocks types, proximity of major faults and closed basins. The detailed hazard map essentially based on the occurrence of sinkholes is in process. This map will influence the landuse planning. Presently, the public building insurance is covering the damage costs due to all natural hazards that are being mapped except sinkholes. For the sake of consistency and due to political pressure, the insurance company wants to integrate this phenomenon in its insurance coverage. This study aims to assess the potential damage costs to buildings induced by this decision. Karstic process is active in two regions in the County. The first one, namely the Folded Jura, is composed of Jurassic and Cretaceous Carbonate rocks. The second one, the Prealpine region, is composed of both Carbonate and evaporitic rocks. Even if the cavities in carbonate rocks can cause difficulties during the buildings construction, the karst development in these rocks is relatively slow and, as a result, the expected damage costs to buildings is relatively low. In contrast, the evaporitic rocks are likely to cause significant subsidence or sudden collapses at human scale and thus damage the buildings. Therefore, our study is focused on the region where this rock type occurs. It results that many buildings, i.e. more than 10'000, are concerned according to the preliminary hazard map. However some of these buildings are in zones with very low potential. Based on estimated frequencies of collapsing events and subsidence rates, the potential damage cost is estimated. Furthermore, the number of potential claims is also considered in order to know the expected additional work for the insurance company. Careful attention is also given to the potential development of building zones. In addition, the project gives guidelines for the insurance company, focusing on structural measures reducing buildings vulnerability.

Seismic hazard assessment based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: the Greater Caucasus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekrasova, A.; Kossobokov, V. G.

2015-12-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters including macro-seismic intensity. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks (e.g., those based on the density of exposed population). The methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment based on USLE is illustrated by application to the seismic region of Greater Caucasus.

Towards a GLOF hazard map for the city of Huaraz, Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, Holger; Huggel, Christian; E Chisolm, Rachel; Gonzales, César; Cochachin, Alejo; Portocarrero, César

2017-04-01

Huaraz, with 120,000 inhabitants, is the largest city at the foot of the Cordillera Blanca Mountain Range, Peru, and is located at the confluence of the Quillcay River with the main Santa River. Three moraine dammed glacier lakes are located in the headwaters of the Quillcay catchment, which pose a potential threat of glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) to Huaraz: Laguna Cuchillacocha (2.5 x 106 m3), Laguna Tullparaju (12 x 106 m3), and Laguna Palcacocha (17 x 106 m3). The latter burst out in 1941, causing one of the deadliest GLOFs known in history, with about 2000 casualties and destroying a third of the city of Huaraz. Currently, the presence of these lakes within potential runout distances of possibly very large ice or rock/ice-avalanches, combined with the large damage potential in the city of Huaraz, some 20 km downstream of the lakes and further potentially endangered infrastructures such as the city of Trujillo, large-scale irrigation projects and hydropower plants along the Santa River poses a high-risk situation, despite lake safety systems at all three lakes were constructed in the last century. At Laguna Palcacocha, temporary measures, such as syphoning and a permanent supervision by a team of observers are undertaken at Laguna Palcacocha. For the future, more permanent measures are planned, including non-structural measures, such as a sensor-based early warning system for the entire catchment. In this framework, a preliminary GLOF hazard map for the entire Quillcay catchment has been developed, based on physically-based numerical modeling. For each of the three lakes, three scenarios of different magnitudes and related probabilities were modeled. For each case, a series of models was used to simulate each part of the chain of interacting processes. The eventual GLOFs were simulated with FLO2D for Palcacocha and RAMMS for Tullparaju and Cuchillacocha. Small, medium and large scenarios were merged for all three lakes, in order to come up with a single hazard map for the entire catchment. Inundation heights were first translated into intensities, and then intensities were converted into hazard levels, according to the probability of the scenario, which resulted in the preliminary hazard map. This map is currently used for informing the population and for the planning of further mitigation actions. For the development of the final hazard map, more detailed simulations in the urban area of Huaraz are needed, combined with field mapping to adjust the map to local conditions and peculiarities. Related efforts are ongoing, in close collaboration with local institutions and authorities. Besides the scientific challenges for the development of such a hazard map, the institutional aspect for the official approval and legal validation is a major challenge that needs to be tackled.

Uncertainty on shallow landslide hazard assessment: from field data to hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trefolini, Emanuele; Tolo, Silvia; Patelli, Eduardo; Broggi, Matteo; Disperati, Leonardo; Le Tuan, Hai

2015-04-01

Shallow landsliding that involve Hillslope Deposits (HD), the surficial soil that cover the bedrock, is an important process of erosion, transport and deposition of sediment along hillslopes. Despite Shallow landslides generally mobilize relatively small volume of material, they represent the most hazardous factor in mountain regions due to their high velocity and the common absence of warning signs. Moreover, increasing urbanization and likely climate change make shallow landslides a source of widespread risk, therefore the interest of scientific community about this process grown in the last three decades. One of the main aims of research projects involved on this topic, is to perform robust shallow landslides hazard assessment for wide areas (regional assessment), in order to support sustainable spatial planning. Currently, three main methodologies may be implemented to assess regional shallow landslides hazard: expert evaluation, probabilistic (or data mining) methods and physical models based methods. The aim of this work is evaluate the uncertainty of shallow landslides hazard assessment based on physical models taking into account spatial variables such as: geotechnical and hydrogeologic parameters as well as hillslope morphometry. To achieve this goal a wide dataset of geotechnical properties (shear strength, permeability, depth and unit weight) of HD was gathered by integrating field survey, in situ and laboratory tests. This spatial database was collected from a study area of about 350 km2 including different bedrock lithotypes and geomorphological features. The uncertainty associated to each step of the hazard assessment process (e.g. field data collection, regionalization of site specific information and numerical modelling of hillslope stability) was carefully characterized. The most appropriate probability density function (PDF) was chosen for each numerical variable and we assessed the uncertainty propagation on HD strength parameters obtained by empirical relations with geotechnical index properties. Site specific information was regionalized at map scale by (hard and fuzzy) clustering analysis taking into account spatial variables such as: geology, geomorphology and hillslope morphometric variables (longitudinal and transverse curvature, flow accumulation and slope), the latter derived by a DEM with 10 m cell size. In order to map shallow landslide hazard, Monte Carlo simulation was performed for some common physically based models available in literature (eg. SINMAP, SHALSTAB, TRIGRS). Furthermore, a new approach based on the use of Bayesian Network was proposed and validated. Different models, such as Intervals, Convex Models and Fuzzy Sets, were adopted for the modelling of input parameters. Finally, an accuracy assessment was carried out on the resulting maps and the propagation of uncertainty of input parameters into the final shallow landslide hazard estimation was estimated. The outcomes of the analysis are compared and discussed in term of discrepancy among map pixel values and related estimated error. The novelty of the proposed method is on estimation of the confidence of the shallow landslides hazard mapping at regional level. This allows i) to discriminate regions where hazard assessment is robust from areas where more data are necessary to increase the confidence level and ii) to assess the reliability of the procedure used for hazard assessment.

A Framework for the Validation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Maps Using Strong Ground Motion Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bydlon, S. A.; Beroza, G. C.

2015-12-01

Recent debate on the efficacy of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), and the utility of hazard maps (i.e. Stein et al., 2011; Hanks et al., 2012), has prompted a need for validation of such maps using recorded strong ground motion data. Unfortunately, strong motion records are limited spatially and temporally relative to the area and time windows hazard maps encompass. We develop a framework to test the predictive powers of PSHA maps that is flexible with respect to a map's specified probability of exceedance and time window, and the strong motion receiver coverage. Using a combination of recorded and interpolated strong motion records produced through the ShakeMap environment, we compile a record of ground motion intensity measures for California from 2002-present. We use this information to perform an area-based test of California PSHA maps inspired by the work of Ward (1995). Though this framework is flexible in that it can be applied to seismically active areas where ShakeMap-like ground shaking interpolations have or can be produced, this testing procedure is limited by the relatively short lifetime of strong motion recordings and by the desire to only test with data collected after the development of the PSHA map under scrutiny. To account for this, we use the assumption that PSHA maps are time independent to adapt the testing procedure for periods of recorded data shorter than the lifetime of a map. We note that accuracy of this testing procedure will only improve as more data is collected, or as the time-horizon of interest is reduced, as has been proposed for maps of areas experiencing induced seismicity. We believe that this procedure can be used to determine whether PSHA maps are accurately portraying seismic hazard and whether discrepancies are localized or systemic.

Earthquake hazard and risk assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Greater Caucasus and Crimea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Nekrasova, Anastasia K.

2018-05-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10 N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10 L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.

Earthquake Hazard and Risk Assessment based on Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes: Altai-Sayan Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2017-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L) = A + B·(5 - M) + C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum credible magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity etc.). After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory, etc.). This, USLE based, methodology of seismic hazard and risks assessment is applied to the territory of Altai-Sayan Region, of Russia. The study supported by the Russian Science Foundation Grant No. 15-17-30020.

Applications of research from the U.S. Geological Survey program, assessment of regional earthquake hazards and risk along the Wasatch Front, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gori, Paula L.

1993-01-01

INTERACTIVE WORKSHOPS: ESSENTIAL ELEMENTS OF THE EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS RESEARCH AND REDUCTION PROGRAM IN THE WASATCH FRONT, UTAH: Interactive workshops provided the forum and stimulus necessary to foster collaboration among the participants in the multidisciplinary, 5-yr program of earthquake hazards reduction in the Wasatch Front, Utah. The workshop process validated well-documented social science theories on the importance of interpersonal interaction, including interaction between researchers and users of research to increase the probability that research will be relevant to the user's needs and, therefore, more readily used. REDUCING EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS IN UTAH: THE CRUCIAL CONNECTION BETWEEN RESEARCHERS AND PRACTITIONERS: Complex scientific and engineering studies must be translated for and transferred to nontechnical personnel for use in reducing earthquake hazards in Utah. The three elements needed for effective translation, likelihood of occurrence, location, and severity of potential hazards, and the three elements needed for effective transfer, delivery, assistance, and encouragement, are described and illustrated for Utah. The importance of evaluating and revising earthquake hazard reduction programs and their components is emphasized. More than 30 evaluations of various natural hazard reduction programs and techniques are introduced. This report was prepared for research managers, funding sources, and evaluators of the Utah earthquake hazard reduction program who are concerned about effectiveness. An overview of the Utah program is provided for those researchers, engineers, planners, and decisionmakers, both public and private, who are committed to reducing human casualties, property damage, and interruptions of socioeconomic systems. PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF EARTHQUAKE MITIGATION POLICIES ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT IN UTAH: The earthquake hazard potential along the Wasatch Front in Utah has been well defined by a number of scientific and engineering studies. Translated earthquake hazard maps have also been developed to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to various causes of damage such as ground shaking, surface rupturing, and liquefaction. The implementation of earthquake hazard reduction plans are now under way in various communities in Utah. The results of a survey presented in this paper indicate that technical public officials (planners and building officials) have an understanding of the earthquake hazards and how to mitigate the risks. Although the survey shows that the general public has a slightly lower concern about the potential for economic losses, they recognize the potential problems and can support a number of earthquake mitigation measures. The study suggests that many community groups along the Wasatch Front, including volunteer groups, business groups, and elected and appointed officials, are ready for action-oriented educational programs. These programs could lead to a significant reduction in the risks associated with earthquake hazards. A DATA BASE DESIGNED FOR URBAN SEISMIC HAZARDS STUDIES: A computerized data base has been designed for use in urban seismic hazards studies conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey. The design includes file structures for 16 linked data sets, which contain geological, geophysical, and seismological data used in preparing relative ground response maps of large urban areas. The data base is organized along relational data base principles. A prototype urban hazards data base has been created for evaluation in two urban areas currently under investigation: the Wasatch Front region of Utah and the Puget Sound area of Washington. The initial implementation of the urban hazards data base was accomplished on a microcomputer using dBASE III Plus software and transferred to minicomputers and a work station. A MAPPING OF GROUND-SHAKING INTENSITIES FOR SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH: This paper documents the development of maps showing a

Flood-hazard mapping in Honduras in response to Hurricane Mitch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, M.C.

2002-01-01

The devastation in Honduras due to flooding from Hurricane Mitch in 1998 prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development, through the U.S. Geological Survey, to develop a country-wide systematic approach of flood-hazard mapping and a demonstration of the method at selected sites as part of a reconstruction effort. The design discharge chosen for flood-hazard mapping was the flood with an average return interval of 50 years, and this selection was based on discussions with the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Honduran Public Works and Transportation Ministry. A regression equation for estimating the 50-year flood discharge using drainage area and annual precipitation as the explanatory variables was developed, based on data from 34 long-term gaging sites. This equation, which has a standard error of prediction of 71.3 percent, was used in a geographic information system to estimate the 50-year flood discharge at any location for any river in the country. The flood-hazard mapping method was demonstrated at 15 selected municipalities. High-resolution digital-elevation models of the floodplain were obtained using an airborne laser-terrain mapping system. Field verification of the digital elevation models showed that the digital-elevation models had mean absolute errors ranging from -0.57 to 0.14 meter in the vertical dimension. From these models, water-surface elevation cross sections were obtained and used in a numerical, one-dimensional, steady-flow stepbackwater model to estimate water-surface profiles corresponding to the 50-year flood discharge. From these water-surface profiles, maps of area and depth of inundation were created at the 13 of the 15 selected municipalities. At La Lima only, the area and depth of inundation of the channel capacity in the city was mapped. At Santa Rose de Aguan, no numerical model was created. The 50-year flood and the maps of area and depth of inundation are based on the estimated 50-year storm tide.

Hazard Maps in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1988-01-01

Emphasizes the use of geophysical hazard maps and illustrates how they can be used in the classroom from kindergarten to college level. Depicts ways that hazard maps of floods, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, and multi-hazards can be integrated into classroom instruction. Tells how maps may be obtained. (SLM)

The Use of Geospatial Technologies in Flood Hazard Mapping and Assessment: Case Study from River Evros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentzafou, Angeliki; Markogianni, Vasiliki; Dimitriou, Elias

2017-02-01

Many scientists link climate change to the increase of the extreme weather phenomena frequency, which combined with land use changes often lead to disasters with severe social and economic effects. Especially floods as a consequence of heavy rainfall can put vulnerable human and natural systems such as transboundary wetlands at risk. In order to meet the European Directive 2007/60/EC requirements for the development of flood risk management plans, the flood hazard map of Evros transboundary watershed was produced after a grid-based GIS modelling method that aggregates the main factors related to the development of floods: topography, land use, geology, slope, flow accumulation and rainfall intensity. The verification of this tool was achieved through the comparison between the produced hazard map and the inundation maps derived from the supervised classification of Landsat 5 and 7 satellite imageries of four flood events that took place at Evros delta proximity, a wetland of international importance. The comparison of the modelled output (high and very high flood hazard areas) with the extent of the inundated areas as mapped from the satellite data indicated the satisfactory performance of the model. Furthermore, the vulnerability of each land use against the flood events was examined. Geographically Weighted Regression has also been applied between the final flood hazard map and the major factors in order to ascertain their contribution to flood events. The results accredited the existence of a strong relationship between land uses and flood hazard indicating the flood susceptibility of the lowlands and agricultural land. A dynamic transboundary flood hazard management plan should be developed in order to meet the Flood Directive requirements for adequate and coordinated mitigation practices to reduce flood risk.

44 CFR 65.12 - Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Revision of flood insurance rate maps to reflect base flood elevations caused by proposed encroachments. 65.12 Section 65.12... INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... flood hazard that results from the decertification of a previously accredited flood protection system that is determined to be in the process of being restored to provide base flood protection V Area of... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface...

Validating national landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for Caribbean island countries: the case of Dominica and tropical storm Erika.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.

The New USGS Volcano Hazards Program Web Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venezky, D. Y.; Graham, S. E.; Parker, T. J.; Snedigar, S. F.

2008-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Volcano Hazard Program (VHP) has launched a revised web site that uses a map-based interface to display hazards information for U.S. volcanoes. The web site is focused on better communication of hazards and background volcano information to our varied user groups by reorganizing content based on user needs and improving data display. The Home Page provides a synoptic view of the activity level of all volcanoes for which updates are written using a custom Google® Map. Updates are accessible by clicking on one of the map icons or clicking on the volcano of interest in the adjacent color-coded list of updates. The new navigation provides rapid access to volcanic activity information, background volcano information, images and publications, volcanic hazards, information about VHP, and the USGS volcano observatories. The Volcanic Activity section was tailored for emergency managers but provides information for all our user groups. It includes a Google® Map of the volcanoes we monitor, an Elevated Activity Page, a general status page, information about our Volcano Alert Levels and Aviation Color Codes, monitoring information, and links to monitoring data from VHP's volcano observatories: Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO), and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO). The YVO web site was the first to move to the new navigation system and we are working on integrating the Long Valley Observatory web site next. We are excited to continue to implement new geospatial technologies to better display our hazards and supporting volcano information.

A LiDAR based analysis of hydraulic hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cazorzi, F.; De Luca, A.; Checchinato, A.; Segna, F.; Dalla Fontana, G.

2012-04-01

Mapping hydraulic hazard is a ticklish procedure as it involves technical and socio-economic aspects. On the one hand no dangerous areas should be excluded, on the other hand it is important not to exceed, beyond the necessary, with the surface assigned to some use limitations. The availability of a high resolution topographic survey allows nowadays to face this task with innovative procedures, both in the planning (mapping) and in the map validation phases. The latter is the object of the present work. It should be stressed that the described procedure is proposed purely as a preliminary analysis based on topography only, and therefore does not intend in any way to replace more sophisticated analysis methods requiring based on hydraulic modelling. The reference elevation model is a combination of the digital terrain model and the digital building model (DTM+DBM). The option of using the standard surface model (DSM) is not viable, as the DSM represents the vegetation canopy as a solid volume. This has the consequence of unrealistically considering the vegetation as a geometric obstacle to water flow. In some cases the topographic model construction requires the identification and digitization of the principal breaklines, such as river banks, ditches and similar natural or artificial structures. The geometrical and topological procedure for the validation of the hydraulic hazard maps is made of two steps. In the first step the whole area is subdivided into fluvial segments, with length chosen as a reasonable trade-off between the need to keep the hydrographical unit as complete as possible, and the need to separate sections of the river bed with significantly different morphology. Each of these segments is made of a single elongated polygon, whose shape can be quite complex, especially for meandering river sections, where the flow direction (i.e. the potential energy gradient associated to the talweg) is often inverted. In the second step the segments are analysed one by one. Therefore, each segment was split into many reaches, so that within any of them the slope of the piezometric line can be approximated to zero. As a consequence, the hydraulic profile (open channel flow) in every reach is assumed horizontal both downslope and on the cross-section. Each reach can be seen as a polygon, delimited laterally by the hazard mapping boundaries and longitudinally by two successive cross sections, usually orthogonal to the talweg line. Simulating the progressive increase of the river stage, with a horizontal piezometric line, allow the definition of the stage-area and stage-volume relationships. Such relationships are obtained exclusively by the geometric information as provided by the high resolution elevation model. The maximum flooded area resulting from the simulation is finally compared to the potentially floodable area described by the hazard maps, to give a flooding index for every reach. Index values lower than 100% show that the mapped hazard area exceeds the maximum floodable area. Very low index values identify spots where there is a significant incongruity between the hazard map and the topography, and where a specific verification is probably needed. The procedure was successfully used for the validation of many hazard maps across Italy.

Semi-automated landform classification for hazard mapping of soil liquefaction by earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakano, Takayuki

2018-05-01

Soil liquefaction damages were caused by huge earthquake in Japan, and the similar damages are concerned in near future huge earthquake. On the other hand, a preparation of soil liquefaction risk map (soil liquefaction hazard map) is impeded by the difficulty of evaluation of soil liquefaction risk. Generally, relative soil liquefaction risk should be able to be evaluated from landform classification data by using experimental rule based on the relationship between extent of soil liquefaction damage and landform classification items associated with past earthquake. Therefore, I rearranged the relationship between landform classification items and soil liquefaction risk intelligibly in order to enable the evaluation of soil liquefaction risk based on landform classification data appropriately and efficiently. And I developed a new method of generating landform classification data of 50-m grid size from existing landform classification data of 250-m grid size by using digital elevation model (DEM) data and multi-band satellite image data in order to evaluate soil liquefaction risk in detail spatially. It is expected that the products of this study contribute to efficient producing of soil liquefaction hazard map by local government.

Climate services for adapting landslide hazard prevention measures in the Vrancea Seismic Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micu, Dana; Balteanu, Dan; Jurchescu, Marta; Sima, Mihaela; Micu, Mihai

2014-05-01

The Vrancea Seismic Region is covering an area of about 8 000 km2 in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians and it is considered one of Europe's most intensely multi-hazard-affected areas. Due to its geomorphic traits (heterogeneous morphostructural units of flysch mountains and molasse hills and depressions), the area is strongly impacted by extreme hydro-meteorological events which are potentially enhancing the numerous damages inflicted to a dense network of human settlements. An a priori knowledge of future climate change is a useful climate service for local authorities to develop regional adapting strategies and adequate prevention/preparedness frameworks. This paper aims at integrating the results of the high-resolution climate projections over the 21st century (within the FP7 ECLISE project) into the regional landslide hazard assessment. The requirements of users (Civil Protection, Land management, local authorities) for this area refer to reliable and high-resolution spatial data on landslide and flood hazard for short and medium-term risk management strategies. An insight into the future behavior of climate variability in the Vrancea Seismic Region, based on future climate projections of three regional models, under three RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 8.6), suggests a clear warming, both annually and seasonally and a rather limited annual precipitation decrease, but with a strong change of seasonality. A landslide inventory of 2485 cases (shallow and medium seated earth, debris and rock slides and earth and debris flows) was obtained based on large scale geomorphological mapping and aerial photos support (GeoEye, DigitalGlobe; provided by GoogleEarth and BingMaps). The landslides are uniformly distributed across the area, being considered representative for the entire morphostructural environment. Landslide susceptibility map was obtained using multivariate statistical analysis (logistic regression), while a relative landslide hazard index was computed based on semi-quantitative spatial multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The generation of the landslide hazard maps relies on the heuristic approach, since a historical record of landslide occurrences, necessary to produce magnitude-frequency relations, is lacking. Based on the assumption of Sanderson et al. (1996) that slopes' morphology has adjusted, since the last glaciation, to the region's "normal" climatic conditions in all aspects including failures, it becomes clear that an extreme character of precipitation would be highly likely to generate landslides. Therefore, in order to represent the landslides triggering factor, raster maps for both time horizons (present and future) as simulated within each climate scenario have been used to illustrate the probabilistic seasonal precipitation amounts expected within a 30-year and a 100-year return period respectively. These maps, considered reliable indicators for depicting the changes in landslide occurrence probability, were standardized according to their contribution to hazard before being included in the SMCE together with the susceptibility map. The resulted hazard index maps for the two time horizons were compared aiming at detecting the future potential climate-induced changes in the spatial patterns of landslide occurrence. The outcomes mostly meet the requirements for updating the regional landslide risk management strategies.

Pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): the effects of event scale, vent location and time forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Flandoli, Franco; Bisson, Marina

2016-04-01

Today hundreds of thousands people live inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) and in the adjacent part of the city of Naples making a future eruption of such volcano an event with huge consequences. Very high risks are associated with the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Mapping of background or long-term PDC hazard in the area is a great challenge due to the unknown eruption time, scale and vent location of the next event as well as the complex dynamics of the flow over the caldera topography. This is additionally complicated by the remarkable epistemic uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of past events, the location of vents as well as the PDCs areal extent estimates. First probability maps of PDC invasion were produced combining a vent-opening probability map, statistical estimates concerning the eruptive scales and a Cox-type temporal model including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Maps were produced by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified inundation model based on the "box model" integral approximation tested with 2D transient numerical simulations of flow dynamics. In this presentation we illustrate the independent effects of eruption scale, vent location and time of forecast of the next event. Specific focus was given to the remarkable differences between the eastern and western sectors of the caldera and their effects on the hazard maps. The analysis allowed to identify areas with elevated probabilities of flow invasion as a function of the diverse assumptions made. With the quantification of some sources of uncertainty in relation to the system, we were also able to provide mean and percentile maps of PDC hazard levels.

An experimental system for flood risk forecasting at global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, L.; Dottori, F.; Kalas, M.; Lorini, V.; Bianchi, A.; Hirpa, F. A.; Feyen, L.; Salamon, P.

2016-12-01

Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by an increasing range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasts, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. To this end, we have developed an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment based on the daily forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The methodology translates GloFAS streamflow forecasts into event-based flood hazard maps based on the predicted flow magnitude and the forecast lead time and a database of flood hazard maps with global coverage. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information to derive flood risk. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To further increase the reliability of the proposed methodology we integrated model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification of impact forecasts. The preliminary tests provided good results and showed the potential of the developed real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management. In particular, the link with social media is crucial for improving the accuracy of impact predictions.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luke, Adam; Sanders, Brett F.; Goodrich, Kristen A.; Feldman, David L.; Boudreau, Danielle; Eguiarte, Ana; Serrano, Kimberly; Reyes, Abigail; Schubert, Jochen E.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Basolo, Victoria; Matthew, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Flood hazard mapping in the United States (US) is deeply tied to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). Consequently, publicly available flood maps provide essential information for insurance purposes, but they do not necessarily provide relevant information for non-insurance aspects of flood risk management (FRM) such as public education and emergency planning. Recent calls for flood hazard maps that support a wider variety of FRM tasks highlight the need to deepen our understanding about the factors that make flood maps useful and understandable for local end users. In this study, social scientists and engineers explore opportunities for improving the utility and relevance of flood hazard maps through the co-production of maps responsive to end users' FRM needs. Specifically, two-dimensional flood modeling produced a set of baseline hazard maps for stakeholders of the Tijuana River valley, US, and Los Laureles Canyon in Tijuana, Mexico. Focus groups with natural resource managers, city planners, emergency managers, academia, non-profit, and community leaders refined the baseline hazard maps by triggering additional modeling scenarios and map revisions. Several important end user preferences emerged, such as (1) legends that frame flood intensity both qualitatively and quantitatively, and (2) flood scenario descriptions that report flood magnitude in terms of rainfall, streamflow, and its relation to an historic event. Regarding desired hazard map content, end users' requests revealed general consistency with mapping needs reported in European studies and guidelines published in Australia. However, requested map content that is not commonly produced included (1) standing water depths following the flood, (2) the erosive potential of flowing water, and (3) pluvial flood hazards, or flooding caused directly by rainfall. We conclude that the relevance and utility of commonly produced flood hazard maps can be most improved by illustrating pluvial flood hazards and by using concrete reference points to describe flooding scenarios rather than exceedance probabilities or frequencies.

Hazards and accessibility: combining and visualizing threat and open infrastructure data for disaster management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Ehmel, Fabian; Heidmann, Frank; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards and risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of threat maps, which are used to depict potential danger posed by a particular hazard throughout a given area. But when a hazard event strikes, infrastructure is a significant factor that can determine if the situation becomes a disaster. The vulnerability of the population in a region does not only depend on the area's local threat, but also on the geographical accessibility of the area. This makes threat maps by themselves insufficient for supporting real-time decision-making, especially for those tasks that involve the use of the road network, such as management of relief operations, aid distribution, or planning of evacuation routes, among others. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a multidisciplinary approach divided in two parts. First, data fusion of satellite-based threat data and open infrastructure data from OpenStreetMap, introducing a threat-based routing service. Second, the visualization of this data through cartographic generalization and schematization. This emphasizes critical areas along roads in a simple way and allows users to visually evaluate the impact natural hazards may have on infrastructure. We develop and illustrate this methodology with a case study of landslide threat for an area in Colombia.

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey national seismic hazard models and maps for the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Luco, Nicolas; Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.; Haller, Kathleen M.

2012-01-01

In this paper, we describe the scientific basis for the source and ground-motion models applied in the 2008 National Seismic Hazard Maps, the development of new products that are used for building design and risk analyses, relationships between the hazard maps and design maps used in building codes, and potential future improvements to the hazard maps.

Slope stability susceptibility evaluation parameter (SSEP) rating scheme - An approach for landslide hazard zonation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raghuvanshi, Tarun Kumar; Ibrahim, Jemal; Ayalew, Dereje

2014-11-01

In this paper a new slope susceptibility evaluation parameter (SSEP) rating scheme is presented which is developed as an expert evaluation approach for landslide hazard zonation. The SSEP rating scheme is developed by considering intrinsic and external triggering parameters that are responsible for slope instability. The intrinsic parameters which are considered are; slope geometry, slope material (rock or soil type), structural discontinuities, landuse and landcover and groundwater. Besides, external triggering parameters such as, seismicity, rainfall and manmade activities are also considered. For SSEP empirical technique numerical ratings are assigned to each of the intrinsic and triggering parameters on the basis of logical judgments acquired from experience of studies of intrinsic and external triggering factors and their relative impact in inducing instability to the slope. Further, the distribution of maximum SSEP ratings is based on their relative order of importance in contributing instability to the slope. Finally, summation of all ratings for intrinsic and triggering parameter based on actual observation will provide the expected degree of landslide in a given land unit. This information may be utilized to develop a landslide hazard zonation map. The SSEP technique was applied in the area around Wurgessa Kebelle of North Wollo Zonal Administration, Amhara National Regional State in northern Ethiopia, some 490 km from Addis Ababa. The results obtained indicates that 8.33% of the area fall under Moderately hazard and 83.33% fall within High hazard whereas 8.34% of the area fall under Very high hazard. Further, in order to validate the LHZ map prepared during the study, active landslide activities and potential instability areas, delineated through inventory mapping was overlain on it. All active landslide activities and potential instability areas fall within very high and high hazard zone. Thus, the satisfactory agreement confirms the rationality of considered governing parameters, the adopted SSEP technique, tools and procedures in developing the landslide hazard map of the study area.

Remote sensing and GIS-based landslide hazard analysis and cross-validation using multivariate logistic regression model on three test areas in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, Biswajeet

2010-05-01

This paper presents the results of the cross-validation of a multivariate logistic regression model using remote sensing data and GIS for landslide hazard analysis on the Penang, Cameron, and Selangor areas in Malaysia. Landslide locations in the study areas were identified by interpreting aerial photographs and satellite images, supported by field surveys. SPOT 5 and Landsat TM satellite imagery were used to map landcover and vegetation index, respectively. Maps of topography, soil type, lineaments and land cover were constructed from the spatial datasets. Ten factors which influence landslide occurrence, i.e., slope, aspect, curvature, distance from drainage, lithology, distance from lineaments, soil type, landcover, rainfall precipitation, and normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi), were extracted from the spatial database and the logistic regression coefficient of each factor was computed. Then the landslide hazard was analysed using the multivariate logistic regression coefficients derived not only from the data for the respective area but also using the logistic regression coefficients calculated from each of the other two areas (nine hazard maps in all) as a cross-validation of the model. For verification of the model, the results of the analyses were then compared with the field-verified landslide locations. Among the three cases of the application of logistic regression coefficient in the same study area, the case of Selangor based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the highest accuracy (94%), where as Penang based on the Penang coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (86%). Similarly, among the six cases from the cross application of logistic regression coefficient in other two areas, the case of Selangor based on logistic coefficient of Cameron showed highest (90%) prediction accuracy where as the case of Penang based on the Selangor logistic regression coefficients showed the lowest accuracy (79%). Qualitatively, the cross application model yields reasonable results which can be used for preliminary landslide hazard mapping.

Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates incorporating site effects - An example from Indiana, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hasse, J.S.; Park, C.H.; Nowack, R.L.; Hill, J.R.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has published probabilistic earthquake hazard maps for the United States based on current knowledge of past earthquake activity and geological constraints on earthquake potential. These maps for the central and eastern United States assume standard site conditions with Swave velocities of 760 m/s in the top 30 m. For urban and infrastructure planning and long-term budgeting, the public is interested in similar probabilistic seismic hazard maps that take into account near-surface geological materials. We have implemented a probabilistic method for incorporating site effects into the USGS seismic hazard analysis that takes into account the first-order effects of the surface geologic conditions. The thicknesses of sediments, which play a large role in amplification, were derived from a P-wave refraction database with over 13, 000 profiles, and a preliminary geology-based velocity model was constructed from available information on S-wave velocities. An interesting feature of the preliminary hazard maps incorporating site effects is the approximate factor of two increases in the 1-Hz spectral acceleration with 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for parts of the greater Indianapolis metropolitan region and surrounding parts of central Indiana. This effect is primarily due to the relatively thick sequence of sediments infilling ancient bedrock topography that has been deposited since the Pleistocene Epoch. As expected, the Late Pleistocene and Holocene depositional systems of the Wabash and Ohio Rivers produce additional amplification in the southwestern part of Indiana. Ground motions decrease, as would be expected, toward the bedrock units in south-central Indiana, where motions are significantly lower than the values on the USGS maps.

Improvements on mapping soil liquefaction at a regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Jing

Earthquake induced soil liquefaction is an important secondary hazard during earthquakes and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure. Mapping liquefaction hazard is important in both planning for earthquake events and guiding relief efforts by positioning resources once the events have occurred. This dissertation addresses two aspects of liquefaction hazard mapping at a regional scale including 1) predictive liquefaction hazard mapping and 2) post-liquefaction cataloging. First, current predictive hazard liquefaction mapping relies on detailed geologic maps and geotechnical data, which are not always available in at-risk regions. This dissertation improves the predictive liquefaction hazard mapping by the development and validation of geospatial liquefaction models (Chapter 2 and 3) that predict liquefaction extent and are appropriate for global application. The geospatial liquefaction models are developed using logistic regression from a liquefaction database consisting of the data from 27 earthquake events from six countries. The model that performs best over the entire dataset includes peak ground velocity (PGV), VS30, distance to river, distance to coast, and precipitation. The model that performs best over the noncoastal dataset includes PGV, VS30, water table depth, distance to water body, and precipitation. Second, post-earthquake liquefaction cataloging historically relies on field investigation that is often limited by time and expense, and therefore results in limited and incomplete liquefaction inventories. This dissertation improves the post-earthquake cataloging by the development and validation of a remote sensing-based method that can be quickly applied over a broad region after an earthquake and provide a detailed map of liquefaction surface effects (Chapter 4). Our method uses the optical satellite images before and after an earthquake event from the WorldView-2 satellite with 2 m spatial resolution and eight spectral bands. Our method uses the changes of spectral variables that are sensitive to surface moisture and soil characteristics paired with a supervised classification.

A New Seismic Hazard Model for Mainland China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rong, Y.; Xu, X.; Chen, G.; Cheng, J.; Magistrale, H.; Shen, Z. K.

2017-12-01

We are developing a new seismic hazard model for Mainland China by integrating historical earthquake catalogs, geological faults, geodetic GPS data, and geology maps. To build the model, we construct an Mw-based homogeneous historical earthquake catalog spanning from 780 B.C. to present, create fault models from active fault data, and derive a strain rate model based on the most complete GPS measurements and a new strain derivation algorithm. We divide China and the surrounding regions into about 20 large seismic source zones. For each zone, a tapered Gutenberg-Richter (TGR) magnitude-frequency distribution is used to model the seismic activity rates. The a- and b-values of the TGR distribution are calculated using observed earthquake data, while the corner magnitude is constrained independently using the seismic moment rate inferred from the geodetically-based strain rate model. Small and medium sized earthquakes are distributed within the source zones following the location and magnitude patterns of historical earthquakes. Some of the larger earthquakes are distributed onto active faults, based on their geological characteristics such as slip rate, fault length, down-dip width, and various paleoseismic data. The remaining larger earthquakes are then placed into the background. A new set of magnitude-rupture scaling relationships is developed based on earthquake data from China and vicinity. We evaluate and select appropriate ground motion prediction equations by comparing them with observed ground motion data and performing residual analysis. To implement the modeling workflow, we develop a tool that builds upon the functionalities of GEM's Hazard Modeler's Toolkit. The GEM OpenQuake software is used to calculate seismic hazard at various ground motion periods and various return periods. To account for site amplification, we construct a site condition map based on geology. The resulting new seismic hazard maps can be used for seismic risk analysis and management.

Seismic hazard maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2011-01-01

We have produced probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Haiti for peak ground acceleration and response spectral accelerations that include the hazard from the major crustal faults, subduction zones, and background earthquakes. The hazard from the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden, Septentrional, and Matheux-Neiba fault zones was estimated using fault slip rates determined from GPS measurements. The hazard from the subduction zones along the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola was calculated from slip rates derived from GPS data and the overall plate motion. Hazard maps were made for a firm-rock site condition and for a grid of shallow shear-wave velocities estimated from topographic slope. The maps show substantial hazard throughout Haiti, with the highest hazard in Haiti along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden and Septentrional fault zones. The Matheux-Neiba Fault exhibits high hazard in the maps for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, although its slip rate is poorly constrained.

Volcanic Hazard Maps; the results and progress made by the IAVCEI Hazard Map working group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calder, Eliza; Lindsay, Jan; Wright, Heather

2017-04-01

The IAVCEI Commission on Volcanic Hazards and Risk set up a working group on Hazard Maps in 2014. Since then, the group has led or co-organised three major workshops, and organized two thematic conference sessions. In particular we have initiated a series of workshops, named the "State of the Hazard Map" which we plan to continue (the first was held at COV8 (State of the Hazard Map 1) and second at COV9 (State of the Hazard Map 2) and the third will be held at IAVCEI General Assembly in Portland. The broad aim of these activities is to work towards an IAVCEI-endorsed considerations or guidelines document for volcanic hazard map generation. The workshops have brought together people from around the world working on volcanic hazard maps, and have had four primary objectives: 1) to review (and collect further data on) the diverse variety of methods and rationales currently used to develop maps; 2) to openly discuss approaches and experiences regarding how hazard maps are interpreted and used by different groups; 3) to discuss and prepare the IAVCEI Guidelines document; and lastly, 4) Discuss options for finalizing, publishing and disseminating the Guidelines document (e.g. wiki, report, open-source publication). This presentation will provide an update of the results and outcomes of those initiatives. This includes brief outcomes of the reviews undertaken, a survey that has been constructed in order to gather additional data, the planned structure for the guidelines documents and a summary of the key findings to date. The majority of the participants of these activities so far have come from volcano observatories or geological surveys, as these institutions commonly have primary responsibility for making operational hazard map. It is important however that others in the scientific community that work on quantification of volcanic hazard contribute to these guidelines. We therefore invite interested parties to become involved.

A Multihazard Regional Level Impact Assessment for South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarnath, Giriraj; Alahacoon, Niranga; Aggarwal, Pramod; Smakhtin, Vladimir

2016-04-01

To prioritize climate adaptation strategies, there is a need for quantitative and systematic regional-level assessments which are comparable across multiple climatic hazard regimes. Assessing which countries in a region are most vulnerable to climate change requires analysis of multiple climatic hazards including: droughts, floods, extreme temperature as well as rainfall and sea-level rise. These five climatic hazards, along with population densities were modelled using GIS which enabled a summary of associated human exposure and agriculture losses. A combined index based on hazard, exposure and adaptive capacity is introduced to identify areas of extreme risks. The analysis results in population climate hazard exposure defined as the relative likelihood that a person in a given location was exposed to a given climate-hazard event in a given period of time. The study presents a detailed and coherent approach to fine-scale climate hazard mapping and identification of risks areas for the regions of South Asia that, for the first time, combines the following unique features: (a) methodological consistency across different climate-related hazards, (b) assessment of total exposure on population and agricultural losses, (c) regional-level spatial coverage, and (d) development of customized tools using ArcGIS toolbox that allow assessment of changes in exposure over time and easy replacement of existing datasets with a newly released or superior datasets. The resulting maps enable comparison of the most vulnerable regions in South Asia to climate-related hazards and is among the most urgent of policy needs. Subnational areas (regions/districts/provinces) most vulnerable to climate change impacts in South Asia are documented. The approach involves overlaying climate hazard maps, sensitivity maps, and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study used data on the spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 1,398 subnational areas of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. An analysis of country-level population exposure showed that approximately 750 million people are affected from combined climate-hazards. Of the affected population 72% are in India, followed by 12% each from Bangladesh and Pakistan. Due in part to the economic importance of agriculture, it was found to be most vulnerable and exposed to climate extremes. An analysis of individual hazards indicates that floods and droughts) are the dominant hazards impacting agricultural areas followed by extreme rainfall, extreme temperature and sea-level rise. Based on this vulnerability assessment, all the regions of Bangladesh and the Indian States in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Orissa; Ampara, Puttalam, Trincomalee, Mannar and Batticaloa in Sri Lanka; Sind and Baluchistan in Pakistan; Central and East Nepal; and the transboundary river basins of Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra are among the most vulnerable regions in South Asia.

Afghanistan Multi-Risk Assessment to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diermanse, Ferdinand; Daniell, James; Pollino, Maurizio; Glover, James; Bouwer, Laurens; de Bel, Mark; Schaefer, Andreas; Puglisi, Claudio; Winsemius, Hessel; Burzel, Andreas; Ammann, Walter; Aliparast, Mojtaba; Jongman, Brenden; Ranghieri, Federica; Fallesen, Ditte

2017-04-01

The geographical location of Afghanistan and years of environmental degradation in the country make Afghanistan highly prone to intense and recurring natural hazards such as flooding, earthquakes, snow avalanches, landslides, and droughts. These occur in addition to man-made disasters resulting in the frequent loss of live, livelihoods, and property. Since 1980, disasters caused by natural hazards have affected 9 million people and caused over 20,000 fatalities in Afghanistan. The creation, understanding and accessibility of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk information is key for effective management of disaster risk. This is especially true in Afghanistan, where reconstruction after recent natural disasters and military conflicts is on-going and will continue over the coming years. So far, there has been limited disaster risk information produced in Afghanistan, and information that does exist typically lacks standard methodology and does not have uniform geo-spatial coverage. There are currently no available risk assessment studies that cover all major natural hazards in Afghanistan, which can be used to assess the costs and benefits of different resilient reconstruction and disaster risk reduction strategies. As a result, the Government of Afghanistan has limited information regarding current and future disaster risk and the effectiveness of policy options on which to base their reconstruction and risk reduction decisions. To better understand natural hazard and disaster risk, the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting the development of new fluvial flood, flash flood, drought, landslide, avalanche and seismic risk information in Afghanistan, as well as a first-order analysis of the costs and benefits of resilient reconstruction and risk reduction strategies undertaken by the authors. The hazard component is the combination of probability and magnitude of natural hazards. Hazard analyses were carried out separately for each peril. Several models were implemented used to simulate the relevant processes involved. These models were fed by global and local climate data and geological data like elevation, slope, land use, soil characteristics etc. Exposure is a measure of the assets and population at risk. An extensive data collection and processing effort was carried out to derive nation-wide exposure data. Vulnerability is a measure of potential exposure losses if a hazardous event occurs. Vulnerability analyses were carried out separately for each peril, because of differences in impact characteristics. Damage functions were derived from asset characteristics and/or experiences from (international) literature. The main project output consists of tables and (GIS-) maps of hazard, exposure and risk. Tables present results at the nation-wide level (admin0), province level (admin1) and district level (admin2). Hazard maps are provided for various return periods, including 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, 500 and 1000 years. All maps are stored in a Web-based GIS-platform. This platform contains four separate directories with [1] generic data (catchment boundaries, rivers etc), [2] hazard maps, [3] exposure maps and [4] risk maps for each of the considered perils.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Lidar-Based Navigation Algorithm for Safe Lunar Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, David M.; Johnson, Andrew E.; Werner, Robert A.

2011-01-01

The purpose of Hazard Relative Navigation (HRN) is to provide measurements to the Navigation Filter so that it can limit errors on the position estimate after hazards have been detected. The hazards are detected by processing a hazard digital elevation map (HDEM). The HRN process takes lidar images as the spacecraft descends to the surface and matches these to the HDEM to compute relative position measurements. Since the HDEM has the hazards embedded in it, the position measurements are relative to the hazards, hence the name Hazard Relative Navigation.

St. Louis area earthquake hazards mapping project; seismic and liquefaction hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, Chris H.; Bauer, Robert A.; Chung, Jae-won; Rogers, David; Pierce, Larry; Voigt, Vicki; Mitchell, Brad; Gaunt, David; Williams, Robert; Hoffman, David; Hempen, Gregory L.; Steckel, Phyllis; Boyd, Oliver; Watkins, Connor M.; Tucker, Kathleen; McCallister, Natasha

2016-01-01

We present probabilistic and deterministic seismic and liquefaction hazard maps for the densely populated St. Louis metropolitan area that account for the expected effects of surficial geology on earthquake ground shaking. Hazard calculations were based on a map grid of 0.005°, or about every 500 m, and are thus higher in resolution than any earlier studies. To estimate ground motions at the surface of the model (e.g., site amplification), we used a new detailed near‐surface shear‐wave velocity model in a 1D equivalent‐linear response analysis. When compared with the 2014 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model, which uses a uniform firm‐rock‐site condition, the new probabilistic seismic‐hazard estimates document much more variability. Hazard levels for upland sites (consisting of bedrock and weathered bedrock overlain by loess‐covered till and drift deposits), show up to twice the ground‐motion values for peak ground acceleration (PGA), and similar ground‐motion values for 1.0 s spectral acceleration (SA). Probabilistic ground‐motion levels for lowland alluvial floodplain sites (generally the 20–40‐m‐thick modern Mississippi and Missouri River floodplain deposits overlying bedrock) exhibit up to twice the ground‐motion levels for PGA, and up to three times the ground‐motion levels for 1.0 s SA. Liquefaction probability curves were developed from available standard penetration test data assuming typical lowland and upland water table levels. A simplified liquefaction hazard map was created from the 5%‐in‐50‐year probabilistic ground‐shaking model. The liquefaction hazard ranges from low (60% of area expected to liquefy) in the lowlands. Because many transportation routes, power and gas transmission lines, and population centers exist in or on the highly susceptible lowland alluvium, these areas in the St. Louis region are at significant potential risk from seismically induced liquefaction and associated ground deformation

Documentation for the 2008 Update of the United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Mueller, Charles S.; Haller, Kathleen M.; Wheeler, Russell L.; Wesson, Robert L.; Zeng, Yuehua; Boyd, Oliver S.; Perkins, David M.; Luco, Nicolas; Field, Edward H.; Wills, Chris J.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2008-01-01

The 2008 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Maps display earthquake ground motions for various probability levels across the United States and are applied in seismic provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, risk assessments, and other public policy. This update of the maps incorporates new findings on earthquake ground shaking, faults, seismicity, and geodesy. The resulting maps are derived from seismic hazard curves calculated on a grid of sites across the United States that describe the frequency of exceeding a set of ground motions. The USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project developed these maps by incorporating information on potential earthquakes and associated ground shaking obtained from interaction in science and engineering workshops involving hundreds of participants, review by several science organizations and State surveys, and advice from two expert panels. The National Seismic Hazard Maps represent our assessment of the 'best available science' in earthquake hazards estimation for the United States (maps of Alaska and Hawaii as well as further information on hazard across the United States are available on our Web site at http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/hazmaps/).

The Handling of Hazard Data on a National Scale: A Case Study from the British Geological Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Royse, Katherine R.

2011-11-01

This paper reviews how hazard data and geological map data have been combined by the British Geological Survey (BGS) to produce a set of GIS-based national-scale hazard susceptibility maps for the UK. This work has been carried out over the last 9 years and as such reflects the combined outputs of a large number of researchers at BGS. The paper details the inception of these datasets from the development of the seamless digital geological map in 2001 through to the deterministic 2D hazard models produced today. These datasets currently include landslides, shrink-swell, soluble rocks, compressible and collapsible deposits, groundwater flooding, geological indicators of flooding, radon potential and potentially harmful elements in soil. These models have been created using a combination of expert knowledge (from both within BGS and from outside bodies such as the Health Protection Agency), national databases (which contain data collected over the past 175 years), multi-criteria analysis within geographical information systems and a flexible rule-based approach for each individual geohazard. By using GIS in this way, it has been possible to model the distribution and degree of geohazards across the whole of Britain.

Atlas of natural hazards in the Hawaiian coastal zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, Charles H.; Grossman, Eric E.; Richmond, Bruce M.; Gibbs, Ann E.

2002-01-01

The purpose of this report is to communicate to citizens and regulatory authorities the history and relative intensity of coastal hazards in Hawaii. This information is the key to the wise use and management of coastal resources. The information contained in this document,we hope,will improve the ability of Hawaiian citizens and visitors to safely enjoy the coast and provide a strong data set for planners and managers to guide the future of coastal resources. This work is largely based on previous investigations by scientific and engineering researchers and county, state, and federal offices and agencies. The unique aspect of this report is that, to the extent possible, it assimilates prior efforts in documenting Hawaiian coastal hazards and combines existing knowledge into a single comprehensive coastal hazard data set. This is by no means the final word on coastal hazards in Hawaii. Every hazardous phenomenon described here, and others such as slope failure and rocky shoreline collapse, need to be more carefully quantified, forecast, and mitigated. Our ultimate goal, of course, is to make the Hawaiian coast a safer place by educating the people of the state, and their leaders, about the hazardous nature of the environment. In so doing, we will also be taking steps toward improved preservation of coastal environments, because the best way to avoid coastal hazards is to avoid inappropriate development in the coastal zone. We have chosen maps as the medium for both recording and communicating the hazard history and its intensity along the Hawaiian coast.Two types of maps are used: 1) smallscale maps showing a general history of hazards on each island and summarizing coastal hazards in a readily understandable format for general use, and 2) a large-scale series of technical maps (1:50,000) depicting coastal sections approximately 5 to 7 miles in length with color bands along the coast ranking the relative intensity of each hazard at the adjacent shoreline.

How well can we test probabilistic seismic hazard maps?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, Kris; Stein, Seth; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Vleminckx, Bart

2017-04-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSH model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating shaking histories for an area with assumed uniform distribution of earthquakes, Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency relation, Poisson temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE). We compare the maximum simulated shaking at many sites over time with that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. The Poisson model predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that of the hazard map is p = 1 - exp(-t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. Exceedance is typically associated with infrequent large earthquakes, as observed in real cases. The ensemble of simulated earthquake histories yields distributions of fractional exceedance with mean equal to the predicted value. Hence, the PSH algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. However, simulated fractional exceedances show a large scatter about the mean value that decreases with increasing t/T, increasing observation time and increasing Gutenberg-Richter a-value (combining intrinsic activity rate and surface area), but is independent of GMPE uncertainty. This scatter is due to the variability of earthquake recurrence, and so decreases as the largest earthquakes occur in more simulations. Our results are important for evaluating the performance of a hazard map based on misfits in fractional exceedance, and for assessing whether such misfit arises by chance or reflects a bias in the map. More specifically, we determined for a broad range of Gutenberg-Richter a-values theoretical confidence intervals on allowed misfits in fractional exceedance and on the percentage of hazard-map bias that can thus be detected by comparison with observed shaking histories. Given that in the real world we only have one shaking history for an area, these results indicate that even if a hazard map does not fit the observations, it is very difficult to assess its veracity, especially for low-to-moderate-seismicity regions. Because our model is a simplified version of reality, any additional uncertainty or complexity will tend to widen these confidence intervals.

Protection of agriculture against drought in Slovenia based on vulnerability and risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dovžak, M.; Stanič, S.; Bergant, K.; Gregorič, G.

2012-04-01

Past and recent extreme events, like earthquakes, extreme droughts, heat waves, flash floods and volcanic eruptions continuously remind us that natural hazards are an integral component of the global environment. Despite rapid improvement of detection techniques many of these events evade long-term or even mid-term prediction and can thus have disastrous impacts on affected communities and environment. Effective mitigation and preparedness strategies will be possible to develop only after gaining the understanding on how and where such hazards may occur, what causes them, what circumstances increase their severity, and what their impacts may be and their study has the recent years emerged as under the common title of natural hazard management. The first step in natural risk management is risk identification, which includes hazard analysis and monitoring, vulnerability analysis and determination of the risk level. The presented research focuses on drought, which is at the present already the most widespread as well as still unpredictable natural hazard. Its primary aim was to assess the frequency and the consequences of droughts in Slovenia based on drought events in the past, to develop methodology for drought vulnerability and risk assessment that can be applied in Slovenia and wider in South-Eastern Europe, to prepare maps of drought risk and crop vulnerability and to guidelines to reduce the vulnerability of the crops. Using the amounts of plant available water in the soil, slope inclination, solar radiation, land use and irrigation infrastructure data sets as inputs, we obtained vulnerability maps for Slovenia using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis with a weighted linear combination of the input parameters. The weight configuration was optimized by comparing the modelled crop damage to the assessed actual damage, which was available for the extensive drought case in 2006. Drought risk was obtained quantitatively as a function of hazard and vulnerability and presented in the same way as the vulnerability, as a GIS-based map. Risk maps show geographic regions in Slovenia where droughts pose a major threat to the agriculture and together with the vulnerability maps provide the basis for drought management, in particular for the appropriate mitigation and response actions in specific regions. The developed methodology is expected to be applied to the entire region of South-Eastern Europe within the initiative of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe.

Processing LiDAR Data to Predict Natural Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fairweather, Ian; Crabtree, Robert; Hager, Stacey

2008-01-01

ELF-Base and ELF-Hazards (wherein 'ELF' signifies 'Extract LiDAR Features' and 'LiDAR' signifies 'light detection and ranging') are developmental software modules for processing remote-sensing LiDAR data to identify past natural hazards (principally, landslides) and predict future ones. ELF-Base processes raw LiDAR data, including LiDAR intensity data that are often ignored in other software, to create digital terrain models (DTMs) and digital feature models (DFMs) with sub-meter accuracy. ELF-Hazards fuses raw LiDAR data, data from multispectral and hyperspectral optical images, and DTMs and DFMs generated by ELF-Base to generate hazard risk maps. Advanced algorithms in these software modules include line-enhancement and edge-detection algorithms, surface-characterization algorithms, and algorithms that implement innovative data-fusion techniques. The line-extraction and edge-detection algorithms enable users to locate such features as faults and landslide headwall scarps. Also implemented in this software are improved methodologies for identification and mapping of past landslide events by use of (1) accurate, ELF-derived surface characterizations and (2) three LiDAR/optical-data-fusion techniques: post-classification data fusion, maximum-likelihood estimation modeling, and hierarchical within-class discrimination. This software is expected to enable faster, more accurate forecasting of natural hazards than has previously been possible.

GIS-based pollution hazard mapping and assessment framework of shallow lakes: southeastern Pampean lakes (Argentina) as a case study.

PubMed

Romanelli, A; Esquius, K S; Massone, H E; Escalante, A H

2013-08-01

The assessment of water vulnerability and pollution hazard traditionally places particular emphasis on the study on groundwaters more than on surface waters. Consequently, a GIS-based Lake Pollution Hazard Index (LPHI) was proposed for assessing and mapping the potential pollution hazard for shallow lakes due to the interaction between the Potential Pollutant Load and the Lake Vulnerability. It includes easily measurable and commonly used parameters: land cover, terrain slope and direction, and soil media. Three shallow lake ecosystems of the southeastern Pampa Plain (Argentina) were chosen to test the usefulness and applicability of this suggested index. Moreover, anthropogenic and natural medium influence on biophysical parameters in these three ecosystems was examined. The evaluation of the LPHI map shows for La Brava and Los Padres lakes the highest pollution hazard (≈30 % with high to very high category) while Nahuel Rucá Lake seems to be the less hazardous water body (just 9.33 % with high LPHI). The increase in LPHI value is attributed to a different loading of pollutants governed by land cover category and/or the exposure to high slopes and influence of slope direction. Dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand values indicate a moderately polluted and eutrophized condition of shallow lake waters, mainly related to moderate agricultural activities and/or cattle production. Obtained information by means of LPHI calculation result useful to perform a local diagnosis of the potential pollution hazard to a freshwater ecosystem in order to implement basic guidelines to improve lake sustainability.

Volcanic Hazard Map as a Tool of City Planning: Experiences at Galeras Volcano and the county of Pasto, Colombia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvache, M. L.

2001-12-01

Large populated areas located near active volcanoes emphasize the importance to take effective actions towards risk reduction. A volcanic hazard map is believed to be the first step in order to inform government officials, private institutions and community about the danger that poses a particular volcano. The hazard map is a tool that must be used to evaluate risk and elaborate risk map. The risk map must be used by decision makers to take measurements about the land-use accordingly with the hazard present in the area and to prepare contingency plans. In 1998 and 1999 the Colombian government pass a law, where every county of the country has to have a plan of land-use and development (POT) for the following 10 years. The POT must consider natural hazard and risk such as seismicity, landslide and volcanic activity. Without the plan, the county will not receive any economical support from the central government. In the county of Pasto, the largest city in the influence zone of Galeras volcano, the hazard map has been used to promote educational plan in schools, increasing public awareness of Galeras and its hazard, advise and persuade decision makers to consider Galeras hazard in the city development plans. On the other hand, the hazard map has been mistaken as a risk map and it has originated opposition due to the measurements taken as a consequence of the map. This presentation deal with the gain experience of using the hazard map as a tool of information and planing and the confrontation that any decision implies with political, social and economic interest.

Multi scale modelling of landslide hazard and risk assessment in data scarce area - a case study on Dhalai District, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Kapil; De, Sunil Kumar

2017-04-01

Successful landslide management plans and policy depends on in-depth knowledge about the hazard and associated risk. Thus, the present research is intended to present an integrated approach involving uses of geospatial technologies for landslide hazard and risk assessment at different scales (site specific to regional level). The landslide hazard map at regional scale (district level) is prepared by using weight-rating based method. To analyze landslide manifestation in the Dhalai district of Tripura different causative factor maps (lithology, road buffer, slope, relative relief, rainfall, fault buffer, landuse/landcover and drainage density) are derived. The analysis revealed that the geological structure and human interference have more influence than other considered factors on the landslide occurrences. The landslide susceptibility zonation map shows that about 1.64 and 16.68% of the total study area is falling under very high and high susceptibility zones respectively. The landslide risk assessment at district level is generated by integrating hazard scouring and resource damage potential scouring (fuzzy membership values) maps. The values of landslide risk matrix are varying within the range of 0.001 to 0.18 and the risk assessment map shows that only 0.45% (10.80 km2) of the district is under very high risk zone, whereas, about 50% pixels of existing road section are under very high to high level of landslide risk. The major part (94.06%) of the district is under very low to low risk zone. Landslide hazard and risk assessment at site specific level have been carried out through intensive field investigation in which it is found that the Ambassa landslide is located within 150 m buffer zone of fault line. Variation of geo-electrical resistivity (2.2Ωm to 31.4Ωm) indicates the complex geological character in this area. Based on the obtained geo-technical result which helps to identify the degree of risk to the existing resource, it is appropriate to implement the management plans such as construction of sub-surface drainage, extension of retaining walls, cutting/filling of slope in scientific manner. Keywords: landslide, hazard, risk, fuzzy set theory

Statistical analysis of earthquakes after the 1999 MW 7.7 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake based on a modified Reasenberg-Jones model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yuh-Ing; Huang, Chi-Shen; Liu, Jann-Yenq

2015-12-01

We investigated the temporal-spatial hazard of the earthquakes after the 1999 September 21 MW = 7.7 Chi-Chi shock in a continental region of Taiwan. The Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989, 1994) that combines the frequency-magnitude distribution (Gutenberg and Richter, 1944) and time-decaying occurrence rate (Utsu et al., 1995) is conventionally employed for assessing the earthquake hazard after a large shock. However, it is found that the b values in the frequency-magnitude distribution of the earthquakes in the study region dramatically decreased from background values after the Chi-Chi shock, and then gradually increased up. The observation of a time-dependent frequency-magnitude distribution motivated us to propose a modified RJ model (MRJ) to assess the earthquake hazard. To see how the models perform on assessing short-term earthquake hazard, the RJ and MRJ models were separately used to sequentially forecast earthquakes in the study region. To depict the potential rupture area for future earthquakes, we further constructed relative hazard (RH) maps based on the two models. The Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves (Swets, 1988) finally demonstrated that the RH map based on the MRJ model was, in general, superior to the one based on the original RJ model for exploring the spatial hazard of earthquakes in a short time after the Chi-Chi shock.

Differences in experiences in rockfall hazard mapping in Switzerland and Principality of Andorra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbruzzese, J.; Labiouse, V.

2009-04-01

The need to cope with rockfall hazard and risk led many countries to adopt proper strategies for hazard mapping and risk management, based on their own social and political constraints. The experience of every single country in facing this challenge provides useful information and possible approaches to evaluate rockfall hazard and risk. More, with particular regard to the hazard mapping process, some important points are common to many methodologies in Europe, especially as for the use of rock fall intensity-frequency diagrams to define specific hazard levels. This aspect could suggest a starting point for comparing and possibly harmonising existing methodologies. On the other hand, the results obtained from methodologies used in different countries may be difficult to be compared, first because the existing national guidelines are established as a consequence of what has been learned in each country from dealing with past rockfall events. Particularly, diverse social and political considerations do influence the definition of the threshold values of the parameters which determine a given degree of hazard, and eventually the type of land-use accepted for each hazard level. Therefore, a change in the threshold values for rockfall intensity and frequency is already enough to produce completely different zoning results even if the same methodology is applied. In relation with this issue, the paper introduces some of the current challenges and difficulties in comparing hazard mapping results in Europe and, subsequently, in the chance to develop a common standard procedure to assess the rockfall hazard. The present work is part of an on-going research project whose aim is to improve methodologies for rockfall hazard and risk mapping at the local scale, in the framework of the European Project "Mountain Risks: from prediction to management and governance", funded by the European Commission. As a reference, two approaches will be considered, proposed in Switzerland and in the Principality of Andorra, respectively. At first, the guidelines applied in the two countries will be outlined, showing which way the correspondent procedures differ. For this purpose, in both cases, the main philosophy in facing rockfall hazard will be discussed, together with its consequences in terms of the resulting intensity-frequency threshold values proposed to determine different classes of hazard. Then, a simple case study carried out in Switzerland, in the Canton of Valais, will show an application of the discussed theoretical issues, by means of a comparison between the two approaches. A rockfall hazard mapping will be performed on a 2D slope profile, following both the Swiss energy-probability threshold values and the ones used in the Principality of Andorra. The analysis of the results will introduce some consequences the criteria for defining classes of hazard may have on land-use planning, depending on which guidelines are applied in a study site. This aspect involves not only differences in zoning concerning the extension of the areas in danger, but as well the influence on land-use that the meaning of the same hazard level may have, according to which threshold values for rockfall intensity and frequency are used. These considerations underline what role social and political decisions can play in the hazard assessment process, on the basis of the experiences and understandings of each country in this field. More precisely, it is rather evident that a possible comparison and/or harmonisation of hazard mapping results is closely linked to this aspect as well, and not only to more technical matters, such as computing and mapping techniques.

Harvesting rockfall hazard evaluation parameters from Google Earth Street View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Partsinevelos, Panagiotis; Agioutantis, Zacharias; Tripolitsiotis, Achilles; Steiakakis, Chrysanthos; Mertikas, Stelios

2015-04-01

Rockfall incidents along highways and railways prove extremely dangerous for properties, infrastructures and human lives. Several qualitative metrics such as the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and the Colorado Rockfall Hazard Rating System (CRHRS) have been established to estimate rockfall potential and provide risk maps in order to control and monitor rockfall incidents. The implementation of such metrics for efficient and reliable risk modeling require accurate knowledge of multi-parametric attributes such as the geological, geotechnical, topographic parameters of the study area. The Missouri Rockfall Hazard Rating System (MORH RS) identifies the most potentially problematic areas using digital video logging for the determination of parameters like slope height and angle, face irregularities, etc. This study aims to harvest in a semi-automated approach geometric and qualitative measures through open source platforms that may provide 3-dimensional views of the areas of interest. More specifically, the Street View platform from Google Maps, is hereby used to provide essential information that can be used towards 3-dimensional reconstruction of slopes along highways. The potential of image capturing along a programmable virtual route to provide the input data for photogrammetric processing is also evaluated. Moreover, qualitative characterization of the geological and geotechnical status, based on the Street View images, is performed. These attributes are then integrated to deliver a GIS-based rockfall hazard map. The 3-dimensional models are compared to actual photogrammetric measures in a rockfall prone area in Crete, Greece while in-situ geotechnical characterization is also used to compare and validate the hazard risk. This work is considered as the first step towards the exploitation of open source platforms to improve road safety and the development of an operational system where authorized agencies (i.e., civil protection) will be able to acquire near-real time hazard maps based on video images retrieved either by open source platforms, operational unmanned aerial vehicles, and/or simple video recordings from users. This work has been performed under the framework of the "Cooperation 2011" project ISTRIA (11_SYN_9_13989) funded from the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" (co-funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)) and managed by the Greek General Secretariat for Research and Technology.

Integrating population dynamics into mapping human exposure to seismic hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, S.; Aubrecht, C.

2012-11-01

Disaster risk is not fully characterized without taking into account vulnerability and population exposure. Assessment of earthquake risk in urban areas would benefit from considering the variation of population distribution at more detailed spatial and temporal scales, and from a more explicit integration of this improved demographic data with existing seismic hazard maps. In the present work, "intelligent" dasymetric mapping is used to model population dynamics at high spatial resolution in order to benefit the analysis of spatio-temporal exposure to earthquake hazard in a metropolitan area. These night- and daytime-specific population densities are then classified and combined with seismic intensity levels to derive new spatially-explicit four-class-composite maps of human exposure. The presented approach enables a more thorough assessment of population exposure to earthquake hazard. Results show that there are significantly more people potentially at risk in the daytime period, demonstrating the shifting nature of population exposure in the daily cycle and the need to move beyond conventional residence-based demographic data sources to improve risk analyses. The proposed fine-scale maps of human exposure to seismic intensity are mainly aimed at benefiting visualization and communication of earthquake risk, but can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process where knowledge of population densities is relevant for decision-making.

Probabilistic Flood Maps to support decision-making: Mapping the Value of Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, L.; Mukolwe, M. M.; Di Baldassarre, G.

2016-02-01

Floods are one of the most frequent and disruptive natural hazards that affect man. Annually, significant flood damage is documented worldwide. Flood mapping is a common preimpact flood hazard mitigation measure, for which advanced methods and tools (such as flood inundation models) are used to estimate potential flood extent maps that are used in spatial planning. However, these tools are affected, largely to an unknown degree, by both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. Over the past few years, advances in uncertainty analysis with respect to flood inundation modeling show that it is appropriate to adopt Probabilistic Flood Maps (PFM) to account for uncertainty. However, the following question arises; how can probabilistic flood hazard information be incorporated into spatial planning? Thus, a consistent framework to incorporate PFMs into the decision-making is required. In this paper, a novel methodology based on Decision-Making under Uncertainty theories, in particular Value of Information (VOI) is proposed. Specifically, the methodology entails the use of a PFM to generate a VOI map, which highlights floodplain locations where additional information is valuable with respect to available floodplain management actions and their potential consequences. The methodology is illustrated with a simplified example and also applied to a real case study in the South of France, where a VOI map is analyzed on the basis of historical land use change decisions over a period of 26 years. Results show that uncertain flood hazard information encapsulated in PFMs can aid decision-making in floodplain planning.

Understanding earthquake hazards in urban areas - Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.

2012-01-01

The region surrounding Evansville, Indiana, has experienced minor damage from earthquakes several times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and the proximity of Evansville to the Wabash Valley and New Madrid seismic zones, there is concern among nearby communities about hazards from earthquakes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake and are able to design structures to withstand this estimated ground shaking. Earthquake-hazard maps provide one way of conveying such information and can help the region of Evansville prepare for future earthquakes and reduce earthquake-caused loss of life and financial and structural loss. The Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) has produced three types of hazard maps for the Evansville area: (1) probabilistic seismic-hazard maps show the ground motion that is expected to be exceeded with a given probability within a given period of time; (2) scenario ground-shaking maps show the expected shaking from two specific scenario earthquakes; (3) liquefaction-potential maps show how likely the strong ground shaking from the scenario earthquakes is to produce liquefaction. These maps complement the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Maps but are more detailed regionally and take into account surficial geology, soil thickness, and soil stiffness; these elements greatly affect ground shaking.

Lateral spread hazard mapping of the northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, for a M7.0 scenario earthquake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olsen, M.J.; Bartlett, S.F.; Solomon, B.J.

2007-01-01

This paper describes the methodology used to develop a lateral spread-displacement hazard map for northern Salt Lake Valley, Utah, using a scenario M7.0 earthquake occurring on the Salt Lake City segment of the Wasatch fault. The mapping effort is supported by a substantial amount of geotechnical, geologic, and topographic data compiled for the Salt Lake Valley, Utah. ArcGIS?? routines created for the mapping project then input this information to perform site-specific lateral spread analyses using methods developed by Bartlett and Youd (1992) and Youd et al. (2002) at individual borehole locations. The distributions of predicted lateral spread displacements from the boreholes located spatially within a geologic unit were subsequently used to map the hazard for that particular unit. The mapped displacement zones consist of low hazard (0-0.1 m), moderate hazard (0.1-0.3 m), high hazard (0.3-1.0 m), and very high hazard (> 1.0 m). As expected, the produced map shows the highest hazard in the alluvial deposits at the center of the valley and in sandy deposits close to the fault. This mapping effort is currently being applied to the southern part of the Salt Lake Valley, Utah, and probabilistic maps are being developed for the entire valley. ?? 2007, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

Seismotectonic Map of Afghanistan and Adjacent Areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2007-01-01

Introduction This map is part of an assessment of Afghanistan's geology, natural resources, and natural hazards. One of the natural hazards is from earthquake shaking. One of the tools required to address the shaking hazard is a probabilistic seismic-hazard map, which was made separately. The information on this seismotectonic map has been used in the design and computation of the hazard map. A seismotectonic map like this one shows geological, seismological, and other information that previously had been scattered among many sources. The compilation can show spatial relations that might not have been seen by comparing the original sources, and it can suggest hypotheses that might not have occurred to persons who studied those scattered sources. The main map shows faults and earthquakes of Afghanistan. Plate convergence drives the deformations that cause the earthquakes. Accordingly, smaller maps and text explain the modern plate-tectonic setting of Afghanistan and its evolution, and relate both to patterns of faults and earthquakes.

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

44 CFR 65.17 - Review of determinations.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... determination; and (5) A copy of the effective NFIP map (Flood Hazard Boundary Map (FHBM) or Flood Insurance...) The name of the NFIP community in which the building or manufactured home is located; (ii) The... applies; (iii) The NFIP map panel number and effective date upon which the determination is based; (iv) A...

Program and plans of the U.S. Geological Survey for producing information needed in National Seismic hazards and risk assessment, fiscal years 1980-84

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hays, Walter W.

1979-01-01

In accordance with the provisions of the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-124), the U.S. Geological Survey has developed comprehensive plans for producing information needed to assess seismic hazards and risk on a national scale in fiscal years 1980-84. These plans are based on a review of the needs of Federal Government agencies, State and local government agencies, engineers and scientists engaged in consulting and research, professional organizations and societies, model code groups, and others. The Earthquake Hazards Reduction Act provided an unprecedented opportunity for participation in a national program by representatives of State and local governments, business and industry, the design professions, and the research community. The USGS and the NSF (National Science Foundation) have major roles in the national program. The ultimate goal of the program is to reduce losses from earthquakes. Implementation of USGS research in the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program requires the close coordination of responsibility between Federal, State and local governments. The projected research plan in national seismic hazards and risk for fiscal years 1980-84 will be accomplished by USGS and non-USGS scientists and engineers. The latter group will participate through grants and contracts. The research plan calls for (1) national maps based on existing methods, (2) improved definition of earthquake source zones nationwide, (3) development of improved methodology, (4) regional maps based on the improved methodology, and (5) post-earthquake investigations. Maps and reports designed to meet the needs, priorities, concerns, and recommendations of various user groups will be the products of this research and provide the technical basis for improved implementation.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: method development and application to Can Tho City, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, H.; Trepat, O. M.; Hung, N. N.; Chinh, D. T.; Merz, B.; Dung, N. V.

2015-08-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas, and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims at the analysis of fluvial and pluvial flood hazard individually, but also at developing a method for the analysis of combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. Fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. Pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data, and a stochastic rain storm generator. Inundation was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphical Processor Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation considering the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and ways for their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Assessing hazard risk, cost of adaptation and traditional land use activities in the context of permafrost thaw in communities in Yukon and the Northwest Territories, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkert, B.; Perrin, A.; Calmels, F.

2015-12-01

Together with its partners, the Northern Climate ExChange (NCE, part of the Yukon Research Centre at Yukon College) has been mapping permafrost-related hazard risk in northern communities since 2010. By integrating geoscience and climate project data, we have developed a series of community-scale hazard risk maps. The maps depict hazard risk in stoplight colours for easy interpretation, and support community-based, future-focused adaptation planning. Communities, First Nations, consultants and local regulatory agencies have used the hazard risk maps to site small-scale infrastructure projects, guide land planning processes, and assess suitability of land development applications. However, we know that assessing risk is only one step in integrating the implications of permafrost degradation in societal responses to environmental change. To build on our permafrost hazard risk maps, we are integrating economic principles and traditional land use elements. To assess economic implications of adaptation to permafrost change, we are working with geotechnical engineers to identify adaptation options (e.g., modified building techniques, permafrost thaw mitigation approaches) that suit the risks captured by our existing hazard risk maps. We layer this with an economic analysis of the costs associated with identified adaptation options, providing end-users with a more comprehensive basis upon which to make decisions related to infrastructure. NCE researchers have also integrated traditional land use activities in assessments of permafrost thaw risk, in a project led by Jean Marie River First Nation in the Northwest Territories. Here, the implications of permafrost degradation on food security and land use priorities were assessed by layering key game and gathering areas on permafrost thaw vulnerability maps. Results indicated that close to one quarter of big and small game habitats, and close to twenty percent of key furbearer and gathering areas within the First Nation's traditional territory, are situated on highly thaw sensitive permafrost. These projects demonstrate how physical and socio-economic factors can be integrated in assessments of permafrost vulnerability to thaw, thus providing tangible, useable results that reflect community priorities and support local decision making.

Vision guided landing of an an autonomous helicopter in hazardous terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Andrew E.; Montgomery, Jim

2005-01-01

Future robotic space missions will employ a precision soft-landing capability that will enable exploration of previously inaccessible sites that have strong scientific significance. To enable this capability, a fully autonomous onboard system that identifies and avoids hazardous features such as steep slopes and large rocks is required. Such a system will also provide greater functionality in unstructured terrain to unmanned aerial vehicles. This paper describes an algorithm for landing hazard avoidance based on images from a single moving camera. The core of the algorithm is an efficient application of structure from motion to generate a dense elevation map of the landing area. Hazards are then detected in this map and a safe landing site is selected. The algorithm has been implemented on an autonomous helicopter testbed and demonstrated four times resulting in the first autonomous landing of an unmanned helicopter in unknown and hazardous terrain.

Toward uniform probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, C. H.; Wang, Y.; Shi, X.; Ornthammarath, T.; Warnitchai, P.; Kosuwan, S.; Thant, M.; Nguyen, P. H.; Nguyen, L. M.; Solidum, R., Jr.; Irsyam, M.; Hidayati, S.; Sieh, K.

2017-12-01

Although most Southeast Asian countries have seismic hazard maps, various methodologies and quality result in appreciable mismatches at national boundaries. We aim to conduct a uniform assessment across the region by through standardized earthquake and fault databases, ground-shaking scenarios, and regional hazard maps. Our earthquake database contains earthquake parameters obtained from global and national seismic networks, harmonized by removal of duplicate events and the use of moment magnitude. Our active-fault database includes fault parameters from previous studies and from the databases implemented for national seismic hazard maps. Another crucial input for seismic hazard assessment is proper evaluation of ground-shaking attenuation. Since few ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) have used local observations from this region, we evaluated attenuation by comparison of instrumental observations and felt intensities for recent earthquakes with predicted ground shaking from published GMPEs. We then utilize the best-fitting GMPEs and site conditions into our seismic hazard assessments. Based on the database and proper GMPEs, we have constructed regional probabilistic seismic hazard maps. The assessment shows highest seismic hazard levels near those faults with high slip rates, including the Sagaing Fault in central Myanmar, the Sumatran Fault in Sumatra, the Palu-Koro, Matano and Lawanopo Faults in Sulawesi, and the Philippine Fault across several islands of the Philippines. In addition, our assessment demonstrates the important fact that regions with low earthquake probability may well have a higher aggregate probability of future earthquakes, since they encompass much larger areas than the areas of high probability. The significant irony then is that in areas of low to moderate probability, where building codes are usually to provide less seismic resilience, seismic risk is likely to be greater. Infrastructural damage in East Malaysia during the 2015 Sabah earthquake offers a case in point.

Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

2014-10-01

New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice. Hazard maps were integral to science communication during the crisis, but there is limited international best practice information available on hazard maps as communication devices, as most volcanic hazard mapping literature is concerned with defining hazard zones. We propose that hazard maps are only as good as the communications framework and inter-agency relationships in which they are embedded, and we document in detail the crisis hazard map development process. We distinguish crisis hazard maps from background hazard maps and ashfall prediction maps, illustrating the complementary nature of these three distinct communication mechanisms. We highlight issues that arose and implications for the development of future maps.

A fluvial and pluvial probabilistic flood hazard analysis for Can Tho city, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martinez, Oriol; Thi Chinh, Do; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2014-05-01

Can Tho city is the largest city and the economic heart of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Due to its economic importance and envisaged development goals the city grew rapidly in population size and extend over the last two decades. Large parts of the city are located in flood prone areas, and also the central parts of the city recently experienced an increasing number of flood events, both of fluvial and pluvial nature. As the economic power and asset values are constantly increasing, this poses a considerable risk for the city. The the aim of this study is to perform a flood hazard analysis considering both fluvial and pluvial floods and to derive probabilistic flood hazard maps. This requires in a first step an understanding of the typical flood mechanisms. Fluvial floods are triggered by a coincidence of high water levels during the annual flood period in the Mekong Delta with high tidal levels, which cause in combination short term inundations in Can Tho. Pluvial floods are triggered by typical tropical convective rain storms during the monsoon season. These two flood pathways are essentially independent in its sources and can thus be treated in the hazard analysis accordingly. For the fluvial hazard analysis we propose a bivariate frequency analysis of the Mekong flood characteristics, the annual maximum flood discharge Q and the annual flood volume V at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta, the gauging station Kratie. This defines probabilities of exceedance of different Q-V pairs, which are transferred into synthetic flood hydrographs. The synthetic hydrographs are routed through a quasi-2D hydrodynamic model of the entire Mekong Delta in order to provide boundary conditions for a detailed hazard mapping of Can Tho. This downscaling step is necessary, because the huge complexity of the river and channel network does not allow for a proper definition of boundary conditions for Can Tho city by gauge data alone. In addition the available gauge data around Can Tho are too short for a meaningful frequency analysis. The detailed hazard mapping is performed by a 2D hydrodynamic model for Can Tho city. As the scenarios are derived in a Monte-Carlo framework, the final flood hazard maps are probabilistic, i.e. show the median flood hazard along with uncertainty estimates for each defined level of probabilities of exceedance. For the pluvial flood hazard a frequency analysis of the hourly rain gauge data of Can Tho is performed implementing a peak-over-threshold procedure. Based on this frequency analysis synthetic rains storms are generated in a Monte-Carlo framework for the same probabilities of exceedance as in the fluvial flood hazard analysis. Probabilistic flood hazard maps were then generated with the same 2D hydrodynamic model for the city. In a last step the fluvial and pluvial scenarios are combined assuming independence of the events. These scenarios were also transferred into hazard maps by the 2D hydrodynamic model finally yielding combined fluvial-pluvial probabilistic flood hazard maps for Can Tho. The derived set of maps may be used for an improved city planning or a flood risk analysis.

Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

2014-05-01

Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Merrimack County, New Hampshire

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

DOQ Digital Orthophoto Quadrangle DOQQ Digital Ortho Quarter Quadrangle DTM Digital Terrain Model FBFM Flood Boundary and Floodway Map FEMA Federal...discussed available data and coverages within New Hampshire (for example, 2003 National Agriculture Imag- ery Program (NAIP) color Digital Orthophoto ... orthophotos providing improved base map accuracy. NH GRANIT is presently converting the standard, paper FIRMs and Flood Boundary and Floodway maps (FBFMs

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Implementation of numerical simulations for rockfall hazard mapping in the Norddal municipality, Norway.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yugsi Molina, Freddy Xavier; Oppikofer, Thierry; Otterå, Solveig; Hermanns, Reginald; Taurisano, Andrea; Wasrud, Jaran; Are Jensen, Odd; Rødseth Kvakland, Marte

2013-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Norway (NGU) are implementing a nationwide program to systematically produce hazard maps for rockfalls, debris flows and snow avalanches in steep terrains. Activities during this program mapping are being carried out by both institutions, and for some areas, outsourced to the private sector. The results presented in this contribution focus on the rockfall component only, and are part of the hazard mapping activities carried out by NGU. Results from all parties involved will further lead in future, in combination with the components on debris flows and snow avalanches, to the preparation of guidelines for landslide hazard mapping. Those will be presented and recommended for the use of private consultants that work on municipality level. The first goal of the project is the preparation of hazard maps for critical areas where a large number of people are exposed to the threat of such type of mass movements. Results from a pilot area in Sylte (Norddal municipality) were presented in the EGU general assembly in 2012. The main objective of this contribution is to present the first finished rockfall hazard maps generated by NGU during the execution of the program. The results presented in this contribution were obtained for the Norddal municipality (Møre og Romsdal county). The area was selected based on the hazard mapping plan of Norway published in 2011, where Norddal is considered a priority area. The area is located in a valley over-steepened by glacial erosion that is characterized by high cliffs of medium to coarse-grained quartz-dioritic to granitic gneisses of Proterozoic age. Multiple scree deposits product of older and recent rockfall activity can be seen along the bottom at both valley flanks. Sylte, the main locality in the Norddal municipality, is located at the valley outlet to the fjord. Several other smaller localities are found along the valley. A spatial geodatabase containing information regarding block sources, block shape and size, rock type, geometry and material properties along the potential rockfall tracks, and presence of natural energy attenuators (i.e. forest) was generated with data obtained during field work. Remote sensing imagery (high resolution aerial photographs), and a high resolution airborne LiDAR-based terrain model (1 m of spatial resolution) were used to extrapolate the information collected during field work to the full extent of the study area. Based on statistical analysis of the observed rock blocks a probability density function of the block size was obtained. This information was used to define the frequency of rockfall events of different sizes. Three scenarios were generated that follow the Norwegian regulations for construction (the Norwegian Building Act) for three different return periods: 100, 1000, and 5000 years. Numerical simulations using Rockyfor3D v. 5.0 (www.ecorisq.org) were performed for the three selected scenarios. Curves representing the maximum reach of blocks for every defined scenario with the sufficient energy to cause enough damage on buildings and houses that could threat the life of their inhabitants were used to define the hazard maps. Results show a good fit with the location of scree deposits found during field recognition. According to the results for events corresponding to the 100 year return period, populated areas are out of the hazardous zones except for the area of Sylte due to the proximity of the village to a large rock cliff. 1000 and 5000 year scenarios show some other localities along the valley prone to be affected by rockfalls. Maps will be communicated to local authorities to help defining short and long term policies regarding land use.

Determination of the rockfall source in an urban settlement area by using a rule-based fuzzy evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksoy, H.; Ercanoglu, M.

2006-10-01

The evaluation of the rockfall initiation mechanism and the simulation of the runout behavior is an important issue in the prevention and remedial measures for potential rockfall hazards in highway protection, in forest preservation, and especially in urban settlement areas. In most of the studies in the literature, the extent of the rockfall hazard was determined by various techniques basing on the selection of a rockfall source, generally defined as zones of rock bodies having slope angles higher than a certain value, proposed by general practice. In the present study, it was aimed to carry out a rule-based fuzzy analysis on the discontinuity data of andesites in the city of Ankara, Turkey, in order to bring a different and rather systematic approach to determine the source areas for rockfall hazard in an urban settlement, based on the discontinuity and natural slope features. First, to obtain rock source areas (RSAs), data obtained from the field studies were combined with a rule-based fuzzy evaluation, incorporating the altitude difference, the number of discontinuities, the number of wedges and the number of potential slides as the parameters of the fuzzy sets. After processing the outputs of the rule-based fuzzy system and producing the linguistic definitions, it could be possible to obtain potential RSAs. According to the RSA maps, 1.7% of the study area was found to have "high RSA", and 5.8% of the study area was assigned as "medium RSA". Then, potential rockfall hazard map was prepared. At the final stage, based upon the high and medium RSAs, 3.6% of the study area showed "high rockfall potential", while areal distribution of "medium rockfall potential" was found as 7.9%. Both RSA and potential rockfall hazard map were in accordance with the observations performed in the field.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Detecting Spatial Patterns of Natural Hazards from the Wikipedia Knowledge Base

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, J.; Stewart, K.

2015-07-01

The Wikipedia database is a data source of immense richness and variety. Included in this database are thousands of geotagged articles, including, for example, almost real-time updates on current and historic natural hazards. This includes usercontributed information about the location of natural hazards, the extent of the disasters, and many details relating to response, impact, and recovery. In this research, a computational framework is proposed to detect spatial patterns of natural hazards from the Wikipedia database by combining topic modeling methods with spatial analysis techniques. The computation is performed on the Neon Cluster, a high performance-computing cluster at the University of Iowa. This work uses wildfires as the exemplar hazard, but this framework is easily generalizable to other types of hazards, such as hurricanes or flooding. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) modeling is first employed to train the entire English Wikipedia dump, transforming the database dump into a 500-dimension topic model. Over 230,000 geo-tagged articles are then extracted from the Wikipedia database, spatially covering the contiguous United States. The geo-tagged articles are converted into an LDA topic space based on the topic model, with each article being represented as a weighted multidimension topic vector. By treating each article's topic vector as an observed point in geographic space, a probability surface is calculated for each of the topics. In this work, Wikipedia articles about wildfires are extracted from the Wikipedia database, forming a wildfire corpus and creating a basis for the topic vector analysis. The spatial distribution of wildfire outbreaks in the US is estimated by calculating the weighted sum of the topic probability surfaces using a map algebra approach, and mapped using GIS. To provide an evaluation of the approach, the estimation is compared to wildfire hazard potential maps created by the USDA Forest service.

Urban Seismic Hazard Mapping for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gomberg, Joan

2006-01-01

Earthquakes cannot be predicted, but scientists can forecast how strongly the ground is likely to shake as a result of an earthquake. Seismic hazard maps provide one way of conveying such forecasts. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces seismic hazard maps for the Nation, is now engaged in developing more detailed maps for vulnerable urban areas. The first set of these maps is now available for Memphis, Tennessee.

Re-evaluation and updating of the seismic hazard of Lebanon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijer, Carla; Harajli, Mohamed; Sadek, Salah

2016-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study undertaken to evaluate the implications of the newly mapped offshore Mount Lebanon Thrust (MLT) fault system on the seismic hazard of Lebanon and the current seismic zoning and design parameters used by the local engineering community. This re-evaluation is critical, given that the MLT is located at close proximity to the major cities and economic centers of the country. The updated seismic hazard was assessed using probabilistic methods of analysis. The potential sources of seismic activities that affect Lebanon were integrated along with any/all newly established characteristics within an updated database which includes the newly mapped fault system. The earthquake recurrence relationships of these sources were developed from instrumental seismology data, historical records, and earlier studies undertaken to evaluate the seismic hazard of neighboring countries. Maps of peak ground acceleration contours, based on 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per Uniform Building Code (UBC) 1997), as well as 0.2 and 1 s peak spectral acceleration contours, based on 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years (as per International Building Code (IBC) 2012), were also developed. Finally, spectral charts for the main coastal cities of Beirut, Tripoli, Jounieh, Byblos, Saida, and Tyre are provided for use by designers.

Spatial Databases for CalVO Volcanoes: Current Status and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, D. W.

2013-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) California Volcano Observatory (CalVO) aims to advance scientific understanding of volcanic processes and to lessen harmful impacts of volcanic activity in California and Nevada. Within CalVO's area of responsibility, ten volcanoes or volcanic centers have been identified by a national volcanic threat assessment in support of developing the U.S. National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) as posing moderate, high, or very high threats to surrounding communities based on their recent eruptive histories and their proximity to vulnerable people, property, and infrastructure. To better understand the extent of potential hazards at these and other volcanoes and volcanic centers, the USGS Volcano Science Center (VSC) is continually compiling spatial databases of volcano information, including: geologic mapping, hazards assessment maps, locations of geochemical and geochronological samples, and the distribution of volcanic vents. This digital mapping effort has been ongoing for over 15 years and early databases are being converted to match recent datasets compiled with new data models designed for use in: 1) generating hazard zones, 2) evaluating risk to population and infrastructure, 3) numerical hazard modeling, and 4) display and query on the CalVO as well as other VSC and USGS websites. In these capacities, spatial databases of CalVO volcanoes and their derivative map products provide an integrated and readily accessible framework of VSC hazards science to colleagues, emergency managers, and the general public.

Mapping Fuels on the Okanogan and Wenatchee National Forests

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg; Donald McKenzie

2006-01-01

Resource managers need spatially explicit fuels data to manage fire hazard and evaluate the ecological effects of wildland fires and fuel treatments. For this study, fuels were mapped on the Okanogan and Wenatchee National Forests (OWNF) using a rule-based method and the Fuels Characteristic Classification System (FCCS). The FCCS classifies fuels based on their...

Communicating landslide risk by combining hazard and open infrastructure data in interactive visualizations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tost, Jordi; Olen, Stephanie M.; Bookhagen, Bodo; Heidmann, Frank

2017-04-01

The DIGENTI project ("DIGitaler ENtscheiderTIsch für das Naturgefahrenmanagement auf Basis von Satellitendaten und Volunteered Geographic Information") has the goal of quantifying and communicating the threat of natural hazards in the Cesar and La Guajira departments of northeast Colombia. The end-goal of the project is to provide an interactive guide for policy and decision makers, and for disaster relief coordination. Over the last years, abundant research has been done in order to analyze risk and to provide relevant information that improves effectiveness in disaster management. The communication of natural hazards risk has traditionally been built upon the estimation of hazard maps. In the context of landslides, hazard maps are used to depict potential danger from landslides and visualize the possibility of future landsliding throughout a given area. Such hazard maps provide a static snapshot of the local estimated threat in a region. However, in mountainous regions, a sufficiently large landslide in remote mountainous areas may represent a potential threat to settlements located downstream of a landslide event. The research presented here proposes an approach to visualize and interactively explore landslide risk by combining static hazard maps, hydrologic networks, and OpenStreetMap data. We estimated the potential for hillslope instabilities scenarios in the region of interest by using the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate a suite Factor of Safety (FOS) maps. The FOS estimates the ratio of total resisting and driving forces to hillslope mass movements. By combining the World DEM with other environmental data (e.g., the Harmonized World Soil Database), we were able to create a suite of high-resolution landslide potential maps for the region of interest. The suite of FOS maps are calculated based on user-selectable parameters (e.g, total mass sliding thickness) that are not well constrained by field observations. We additionally use the TanDEM-X World DEM to calculate the hydrologic network for our study area. This allows not only to delineate the stream network, but also to calculate the area upstream of settlements located near rivers or streams that may be impacted by distal landsliding. By integrating the potential landslide hazard in the upstream area, we create a more robust threat estimate for vulnerable settlements. Disaster relief is not only affected by the physical consequences of a hazardous event, but also by the area's accessibility and mobility capability for internal displacements. We therefore also estimate the threat along roads and to other infrastructure (e.g. bridges). Decisions based on the area's road network have to be constantly taken, for instance, to send rescue teams or to coordinate humanitarian logistics. With our approach, we are able to identify critical spots along roads with high likelihood of getting damaged. Furthermore, given a particular potential landslide location and the calculation of its downstream hydrologic network, it is possible to estimate which settlements, roads or bridges may be at risk. This approach could be integrated into flooding early warning systems and into the disaster management response phase to foresee dangers and losses and plan evacuations on time.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Dynamic evaluation of seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, V. G.; Nekrasova, A.

2016-12-01

We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing seismic hazard maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), i.e. log N(M,L) = A + B•(6 - M) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L, A characterizes the average annual rate of strong (M = 6) earthquakes, B determines the balance between magnitude ranges, and C estimates the fractal dimension of seismic locus in projection to the Earth surface. The parameters A, B, and C of USLE are used to assess, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at a seismically prone cell of a uniform grid that cover the region of interest, and then the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters. After a rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past (e.g., the historically reported macro-seismic intensity or paleo data), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures. The hazard maps for a given territory change dramatically, when the methodology is applied to a certain size moving time window, e.g. about a decade long for an intermediate-term regional assessment or exponentially increasing intervals for a daily local strong aftershock forecasting. The of dynamical seismic hazard and risks assessment is illustrated by applications to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea and the two-year series of aftershocks of the 11 October 2008 Kurchaloy, Chechnya earthquake which case-history appears to be encouraging for further systematic testing as potential short-term forecasting tool.

Fault specific GIS based seismic hazard maps for the Attica region, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deligiannakis, G.; Papanikolaou, I. D.; Roberts, G.

2018-04-01

Traditional seismic hazard assessment methods are based on the historical seismic records for the calculation of an annual probability of exceedance for a particular ground motion level. A new fault-specific seismic hazard assessment method is presented, in order to address problems related to the incompleteness and the inhomogeneity of the historical records and to obtain higher spatial resolution of hazard. This method is applied to the region of Attica, which is the most densely populated area in Greece, as nearly half of the country's population lives in Athens and its surrounding suburbs, in the Greater Athens area. The methodology is based on a database of 24 active faults that could cause damage to Attica in case of seismic rupture. This database provides information about the faults slip rates, lengths and expected magnitudes. The final output of the method is four fault-specific seismic hazard maps, showing the recurrence of expected intensities for each locality. These maps offer a high spatial resolution, as they consider the surface geology. Despite the fact that almost half of the Attica region lies on the lowest seismic risk zone according to the official seismic hazard zonation of Greece, different localities have repeatedly experienced strong ground motions during the last 15 kyrs. Moreover, the maximum recurrence for each intensity occurs in different localities across Attica. Highest recurrence for intensity VII (151-156 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 96 year return period) is observed in the central part of the Athens basin. The maximum intensity VIII recurrence (115 times over 15 kyrs, or up to a 130 year return period) is observed in the western part of Attica, while the maximum intensity IX (73-77/15 kyrs, or a 195 year return period) and X (25-29/15 kyrs, or a 517 year return period) recurrences are observed near the South Alkyonides fault system, which dominates the strong ground motions hazard in the western part of the Attica mainland.

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of population in the daily cycle to re-assess exposure to earthquake hazard in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area, home to almost three million people. New high-resolution (50 m grids) daytime and nighttime population distribution maps are developed using dasymetric mapping. The modeling approach uses areal interpolation to combine best-available census data and statistics with land use and land cover data. Mobility statistics are considered for mapping daytime distribution, and empirical parameters used for interpolation are obtained from a previous effort in high resolution population mapping of part of the study area. Finally, the population distribution maps are combined with the Seismic Hazard Intensity map to: (1) quantify and compare human exposure to seismic intensity levels in the daytime and nighttime periods, and (2) derive nighttime and daytime overall Earthquake Risk maps. This novel approach yields previously unavailable spatio-temporal population distribution information for the study area, enabling refined and more accurate earthquake risk mapping and assessment. Additionally, such population exposure datasets can be combined with different hazard maps to improve spatio-temporal assessment and risk mapping for any type of hazard, natural or man-made. We believe this improved characterization of vulnerability and risk can benefit all phases of the disaster management process where human exposure has to be considered, namely in emergency planning, risk mitigation, preparedness, and response to an event.

Use of raster-based data layers to model spatial variation of seismotectonic data in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolfaghari, Mohammad R.

2009-07-01

Recent achievements in computer and information technology have provided the necessary tools to extend the application of probabilistic seismic hazard mapping from its traditional engineering use to many other applications. Examples for such applications are risk mitigation, disaster management, post disaster recovery planning and catastrophe loss estimation and risk management. Due to the lack of proper knowledge with regard to factors controlling seismic hazards, there are always uncertainties associated with all steps involved in developing and using seismic hazard models. While some of these uncertainties can be controlled by more accurate and reliable input data, the majority of the data and assumptions used in seismic hazard studies remain with high uncertainties that contribute to the uncertainty of the final results. In this paper a new methodology for the assessment of seismic hazard is described. The proposed approach provides practical facility for better capture of spatial variations of seismological and tectonic characteristics, which allows better treatment of their uncertainties. In the proposed approach, GIS raster-based data models are used in order to model geographical features in a cell-based system. The cell-based source model proposed in this paper provides a framework for implementing many geographically referenced seismotectonic factors into seismic hazard modelling. Examples for such components are seismic source boundaries, rupture geometry, seismic activity rate, focal depth and the choice of attenuation functions. The proposed methodology provides improvements in several aspects of the standard analytical tools currently being used for assessment and mapping of regional seismic hazard. The proposed methodology makes the best use of the recent advancements in computer technology in both software and hardware. The proposed approach is well structured to be implemented using conventional GIS tools.

The Theory-based Influence of Map Features on Risk Beliefs: Self-reports of What is Seen and Understood for Maps Depicting an Environmental Health Hazard

PubMed Central

Vatovec, Christine

2013-01-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. We report results from thirteen cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed three formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (pre-attentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared to abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: pre-attentive “incremental risk” meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals. PMID:22715919

The theory-based influence of map features on risk beliefs: self-reports of what is seen and understood for maps depicting an environmental health hazard.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J; Vatovec, Christine

2012-08-01

Theory-based research is needed to understand how maps of environmental health risk information influence risk beliefs and protective behavior. Using theoretical concepts from multiple fields of study including visual cognition, semiotics, health behavior, and learning and memory supports a comprehensive assessment of this influence. The authors report results from 13 cognitive interviews that provide theory-based insights into how visual features influenced what participants saw and the meaning of what they saw as they viewed 3 formats of water test results for private wells (choropleth map, dot map, and a table). The unit of perception, color, proximity to hazards, geographic distribution, and visual salience had substantial influences on what participants saw and their resulting risk beliefs. These influences are explained by theoretical factors that shape what is seen, properties of features that shape cognition (preattentive, symbolic, visual salience), information processing (top-down and bottom-up), and the strength of concrete compared with abstract information. Personal relevance guided top-down attention to proximal and larger hazards that shaped stronger risk beliefs. Meaning was more local for small perceptual units and global for large units. Three aspects of color were important: preattentive "incremental risk" meaning of sequential shading, symbolic safety meaning of stoplight colors, and visual salience that drew attention. The lack of imagery, geographic information, and color diminished interest in table information. Numeracy and prior beliefs influenced comprehension for some participants. Results guided the creation of an integrated conceptual framework for application to future studies. Ethics should guide the selection of map features that support appropriate communication goals.

Seismic hazard and risks based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kossobokov, Vladimir; Nekrasova, Anastasia

2014-05-01

Losses from natural disasters continue to increase mainly due to poor understanding by majority of scientific community, decision makers and public, the three components of Risk, i.e., Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability. Contemporary Science is responsible for not coping with challenging changes of Exposures and their Vulnerability inflicted by growing population, its concentration, etc., which result in a steady increase of Losses from Natural Hazards. Scientists owe to Society for lack of knowledge, education, and communication. In fact, Contemporary Science can do a better job in disclosing Natural Hazards, assessing Risks, and delivering such knowledge in advance catastrophic events. Any kind of risk estimates R(g) at location g results from a convolution of the natural hazard H(g) with the exposed object under consideration O(g) along with its vulnerability V(O(g)). Note that g could be a point, or a line, or a cell on or under the Earth surface and that distribution of hazards, as well as objects of concern and their vulnerability, could be time-dependent. There exist many different risk estimates even if the same object of risk and the same hazard are involved. It may result from the different laws of convolution, as well as from different kinds of vulnerability of an object of risk under specific environments and conditions. Both conceptual issues must be resolved in a multidisciplinary problem oriented research performed by specialists in the fields of hazard, objects of risk, and object vulnerability, i.e. specialists in earthquake engineering, social sciences and economics. To illustrate this general concept, we first construct seismic hazard assessment maps based on the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE). The parameters A, B, and C of USLE, i.e. log N(M,L) = A - B•(M-6) + C•log L, where N(M,L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an area of linear size L, are used to estimate the expected maximum magnitude in 50 years and the corresponding expected ground shaking intensity in a cell g of a uniform grid of the region of interest. Then such a seismic hazard map is used to generate earthquake risk maps based on the exposed population density. Some oversimplified convolutions R(g) = H(g)•gP•F(gP) of seismic hazard assessment maps H(g) are applied in a few regions with population density distribution P of vulnerability V=F(gP), where g is a cell of a uniform grid and gP is the integral of the population density over the cell g.

An offline-online Web-GIS Android application for fast data acquisition of landslide hazard and risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2017-04-01

Regional landslide assessments and mapping have been effectively pursued by research institutions, national and local governments, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and different stakeholders for some time, and a wide range of methodologies and technologies have consequently been proposed. Land-use mapping and hazard event inventories are mostly created by remote-sensing data, subject to difficulties, such as accessibility and terrain, which need to be overcome. Likewise, landslide data acquisition for the field navigation can magnify the accuracy of databases and analysis. Open-source Web and mobile GIS tools can be used for improved ground-truthing of critical areas to improve the analysis of hazard patterns and triggering factors. This paper reviews the implementation and selected results of a secure mobile-map application called ROOMA (Rapid Offline-Online Mapping Application) for the rapid data collection of landslide hazard and risk. This prototype assists the quick creation of landslide inventory maps (LIMs) by collecting information on the type, feature, volume, date, and patterns of landslides using open-source Web-GIS technologies such as Leaflet maps, Cordova, GeoServer, PostgreSQL as the real DBMS (database management system), and PostGIS as its plug-in for spatial database management. This application comprises Leaflet maps coupled with satellite images as a base layer, drawing tools, geolocation (using GPS and the Internet), photo mapping, and event clustering. All the features and information are recorded into a GeoJSON text file in an offline version (Android) and subsequently uploaded to the online mode (using all browsers) with the availability of Internet. Finally, the events can be accessed and edited after approval by an administrator and then be visualized by the general public.

Ensemble of ground subsidence hazard maps using fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Lee, Jiyeong; Saro, Lee

2014-06-01

Hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok, Korea, were constructed using fuzzy ensemble techniques and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, groundwater, and ground subsidence maps. Spatial data, topography, geology, and various ground-engineering data for the subsidence area were collected and compiled in a database for mapping ground-subsidence hazard (GSH). The subsidence area was randomly split 70/30 for training and validation of the models. The relationships between the detected ground-subsidence area and the factors were identified and quantified by frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create ground-subsidence hazard indexes and maps. The three GSH maps were then used as new input factors and integrated using fuzzy-ensemble methods to make better hazard maps. All of the hazard maps were validated by comparison with known subsidence areas that were not used directly in the analysis. As the result, the ensemble model was found to be more effective in terms of prediction accuracy than the individual model.

Coastal Vulnerability to Erosion Processes: Study Cases from Different Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anfuso, Giorgio; Martinez Del Pozo, Jose Angel; Rangel-Buitrago, Nelson

2010-05-01

When natural processes affect or threaten human activities or infrastructures they become a natural hazard. In order to prevent the natural hazards impact and the associated economic and human losses, coastal managers need to know the intrinsic vulnerability of the littoral, using information on the physical and ecological coastal features, human occupation and present and future shoreline trends. The prediction of future coastline positions can be based on the study of coastal changes which have occurred over recent decades. Vertical aerial photographs, satellite imagery and maps are very useful data sources for the reconstruction of coast line changes at long (>60 years) and medium (between 60 and 10 years) temporal and spatial scales. Vulnerability maps have been obtained for several coastal sectors around the world through the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS), computer-assisted multivariate analysis and numerical models. In the USA, "Flood Insurance Rate Maps" have been created by the government and "Coastal Zone Hazard Maps" have been prepared for coastal stretches affected by hurricane Hugo. In Spain, the vulnerability of the Ebro and an Andalusia coastal sector were investigated over different time scales. McLaughlin et al., (2002) developed a GIS based coastal vulnerability index for the Northern Ireland littoral that took into account socio-economic activities and coastal resistance to erosion and energetic characteristics. Lizárraga et al., (2001) combined beach reduction at Rosario (Mexico) with the probability of damage to landward structures, obtaining a vulnerability matrix. In this work several coastal vulnerability maps have also been created by comparing data on coastal erosion/accretion and land use along different coastal sectors in Italy, Morocco and Colombia. Keywords: Hazard, Vulnerability, Coastal Erosion, Italy, Morocco, Colombia.

New version of 1 km global river flood hazard maps for the next generation of Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens; Winsemius, Hessel; Ward, Philip; Bierkens, Marc

2017-04-01

The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer, launched in 2015, is an open-access and free-of-charge web-based interactive platform which assesses and visualises current and future projections of river flood impacts across the globe. One of the key components in the Analyzer is a set of river flood inundation hazard maps derived from the global hydrological model simulation of PCR-GLOBWB. For the current version of the Analyzer, accessible on http://floods.wri.org/#/, the early generation of PCR-GLOBWB 1.0 was used and simulated at 30 arc-minute ( 50 km at the equator) resolution. In this presentation, we will show the new version of these hazard maps. This new version is based on the latest version of PCR-GLOBWB 2.0 (https://github.com/UU-Hydro/PCR-GLOBWB_model, Sutanudjaja et al., 2016, doi:10.5281/zenodo.60764) simulated at 5 arc-minute ( 10 km at the equator) resolution. The model simulates daily hydrological and water resource fluxes and storages, including the simulation of overbank volume that ends up on the floodplain (if flooding occurs). The simulation was performed for the present day situation (from 1960) and future climate projections (until 2099) using the climate forcing created in the ISI-MIP project. From the simulated flood inundation volume time series, we then extract annual maxima for each cell, and fit these maxima to a Gumbel extreme value distribution. This allows us to derive flood volume maps of any hazard magnitude (ranging from 2-year to 1000-year flood events) and for any time period (e.g. 1960-1999, 2010-2049, 2030-2069, and 2060-2099). The derived flood volumes (at 5 arc-minute resolution) are then spread over the high resolution terrain model using an updated GLOFRIS downscaling module (Winsemius et al., 2013, doi:10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013). The updated version performs a volume spreading sequentially from more upstream basins to downstream basins, hence enabling a better inclusion of smaller streams, and takes into account spreading of water over diverging deltaic regions. This results in a set of high resolution hazard maps of flood inundation depth at 30 arc-second ( 1 km at the equator) resolution. Together with many other updates and new features, the resulting flood hazard maps will be used in the next generation of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer.

Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis for a GIS-based hazardous waste landfill sitting in Kurdistan Province, western Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sharifi, Mozafar; Hadidi, Mosslem; Vessali, Elahe

2009-10-15

The evaluation of a hazardous waste disposal site is a complicated process because it requires data from diverse social and environmental fields. These data often involve processing of a significant amount of spatial information which can be used by GIS as an important tool for land use suitability analysis. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of hazardous waste landfill sites in Kurdistan Province, western Iran. The study employs a two-stage analysis to provide a spatial decision support system for hazardous waste management in a typically under developed region. The purpose ofmore » GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify the most suitable sites using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to new chosen criteria. Using 21 exclusionary criteria, as input layers, masked maps were prepared. Creating various intermediate or analysis map layers a final overlay map was obtained representing areas for hazardous waste landfill sites. In order to evaluate different landfill sites produced by the overlaying a landfill suitability index system was developed representing cumulative effects of relative importance (weights) and suitability values of 14 non-exclusionary criteria including several criteria resulting from field observation. Using this suitability index 15 different sites were visited and based on the numerical evaluation provided by MCDA most suitable sites were determined.« less

Integrating multi-criteria decision analysis for a GIS-based hazardous waste landfill sitting in Kurdistan Province, western Iran.

PubMed

Sharifi, Mozafar; Hadidi, Mosslem; Vessali, Elahe; Mosstafakhani, Parasto; Taheri, Kamal; Shahoie, Saber; Khodamoradpour, Mehran

2009-10-01

The evaluation of a hazardous waste disposal site is a complicated process because it requires data from diverse social and environmental fields. These data often involve processing of a significant amount of spatial information which can be used by GIS as an important tool for land use suitability analysis. This paper presents a multi-criteria decision analysis alongside with a geospatial analysis for the selection of hazardous waste landfill sites in Kurdistan Province, western Iran. The study employs a two-stage analysis to provide a spatial decision support system for hazardous waste management in a typically under developed region. The purpose of GIS was to perform an initial screening process to eliminate unsuitable land followed by utilization of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify the most suitable sites using the information provided by the regional experts with reference to new chosen criteria. Using 21 exclusionary criteria, as input layers, masked maps were prepared. Creating various intermediate or analysis map layers a final overlay map was obtained representing areas for hazardous waste landfill sites. In order to evaluate different landfill sites produced by the overlaying a landfill suitability index system was developed representing cumulative effects of relative importance (weights) and suitability values of 14 non-exclusionary criteria including several criteria resulting from field observation. Using this suitability index 15 different sites were visited and based on the numerical evaluation provided by MCDA most suitable sites were determined.

Two models for evaluating landslide hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davis, J.C.; Chung, C.-J.; Ohlmacher, G.C.

2006-01-01

Two alternative procedures for estimating landslide hazards were evaluated using data on topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) and bedrock lithologies in an area adjacent to the Missouri River in Atchison County, Kansas, USA. The two procedures are based on the likelihood ratio model but utilize different assumptions. The empirical likelihood ratio model is based on non-parametric empirical univariate frequency distribution functions under an assumption of conditional independence while the multivariate logistic discriminant model assumes that likelihood ratios can be expressed in terms of logistic functions. The relative hazards of occurrence of landslides were estimated by an empirical likelihood ratio model and by multivariate logistic discriminant analysis. Predictor variables consisted of grids containing topographic elevations, slope angles, and slope aspects calculated from a 30-m DEM. An integer grid of coded bedrock lithologies taken from digitized geologic maps was also used as a predictor variable. Both statistical models yield relative estimates in the form of the proportion of total map area predicted to already contain or to be the site of future landslides. The stabilities of estimates were checked by cross-validation of results from random subsamples, using each of the two procedures. Cell-by-cell comparisons of hazard maps made by the two models show that the two sets of estimates are virtually identical. This suggests that the empirical likelihood ratio and the logistic discriminant analysis models are robust with respect to the conditional independent assumption and the logistic function assumption, respectively, and that either model can be used successfully to evaluate landslide hazards. ?? 2006.

Alteration, slope-classified alteration, and potential lahar inundation maps of volcanoes for the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Volcano Archive

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mars, John C.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Pieri, David; Linick, Justin

2015-01-01

This study was undertaken during 2012–2013 in cooperation with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Since completion of this study, a new lahar modeling program (LAHAR_pz) has been released, which may produce slightly different modeling results from the LAHARZ model used in this study. The maps and data from this study should not be used in place of existing volcano hazard maps published by local authorities. For volcanoes without hazard maps and (or) published lahar-related hazard studies, this work will provide a starting point from which more accurate hazard maps can be produced. This is the first dataset to provide digital maps of altered volcanoes and adjacent watersheds that can be used for assessing volcanic hazards, hydrothermal alteration, and other volcanic processes in future studies.

MyEnvironment | US Environmental Protection Agency

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The MyEnvironment search application is designed to provide a cross-section of environmental information based on the users location. Environmental data is displayed at local community locations. EPA Environmental data displayed within maps and reports. Results include: Environmental Data, Enviromental Map, EPA Data, EPA Map, Air, Water, Land, Health, Pollution, Climate Change, Permits, Statistics, Superfund, Brownfields, Hazardous Waste, Toxic, Releases, Cleanups, Community, Ecological Conditions

MyEnvironment | Envirofacts | US EPA

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

2017-09-22

The MyEnvironment search application is designed to provide a cross-section of environmental information based on the users location. Environmental data is displayed at local community locations. EPA Environmental data displayed within maps and reports. Results include: Environmental Data, Enviromental Map, EPA Data, EPA Map, Air, Water, Land, Health, Pollution, Climate Change, Permits, Statistics, Superfund, Brownfields, Hazardous Waste, Toxic, Releases, Cleanups, Community, Ecological Conditions

Errors in Seismic Hazard Assessment are Creating Huge Human Losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bela, J.

2015-12-01

The current practice of representing earthquake hazards to the public based upon their perceived likelihood or probability of occurrence is proven now by the global record of actual earthquakes to be not only erroneous and unreliable, but also too deadly! Earthquake occurrence is sporadic and therefore assumptions of earthquake frequency and return-period are both not only misleading, but also categorically false. More than 700,000 people have now lost their lives (2000-2011), wherein 11 of the World's Deadliest Earthquakes have occurred in locations where probability-based seismic hazard assessments had predicted only low seismic low hazard. Unless seismic hazard assessment and the setting of minimum earthquake design safety standards for buildings and bridges are based on a more realistic deterministic recognition of "what can happen" rather than on what mathematical models suggest is "most likely to happen" such future huge human losses can only be expected to continue! The actual earthquake events that did occur were at or near the maximum potential-size event that either already had occurred in the past; or were geologically known to be possible. Haiti's M7 earthquake, 2010 (with > 222,000 fatalities) meant the dead could not even be buried with dignity. Japan's catastrophic Tohoku earthquake, 2011; a M9 Megathrust earthquake, unleashed a tsunami that not only obliterated coastal communities along the northern Japanese coast, but also claimed > 20,000 lives. This tsunami flooded nuclear reactors at Fukushima, causing 4 explosions and 3 reactors to melt down. But while this history of huge human losses due to erroneous and misleading seismic hazard estimates, despite its wrenching pain, cannot be unlived; if faced with courage and a more realistic deterministic estimate of "what is possible", it need not be lived again. An objective testing of the results of global probability based seismic hazard maps against real occurrences has never been done by the GSHAP team; even though the obvious inadequacy of the GSHAP map could have been established in the course of a simple check before the project completion. The doctrine of "psha exceptionalism" that created the maps can only be esponged by carefully examining the facts . . . which unfortunately include huge human losses!

Use of Bedrock and Geomorphic Mapping Compilations in Assessing Geologic Hazards at Recreation Sites on National Forests in NW California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de La Fuente, J. A.; Bell, A.; Elder, D.; Mowery, R.; Mikulovsky, R.; Klingel, H.; Stevens, M.

2010-12-01

Geologic hazards on US Forest Service lands have a long history of producing catastrophic events. In 1890 (prior to the establishment of the Forest Service), the China Mine landslide buried a miner’s camp along the Trinity River in NW California, killing a number of miners. An earthquake in southwestern Montana triggered a massive landslide which killed 28 people in a US Forest Service campground in 1959. In 1980, Mount St. Helens erupted in Oregon, killing 57 people. Debris flows from a winter storm in 2003 on the burned hillslopes of the San Bernardino National Forest in California killed 14 people at the St. Sophia youth Camp. A rockfall in the summer of 2009 in Lassen National Park killed a 9 year old boy. The most recent catastrophe occurred on June 11, 2010 when 20 people died in a flash flood at the Albert Pike Campground on the Ouachita National Forest. These and other disasters point out the need for geologic hazard mapping and assessments on the National Forests. The US Forest Service (USFS) is currently assessing geologic hazards in the Northern Province of USFS Region 5 (Pacific Southwest Region), which includes the Klamath, Mendocino, Shasta-Trinity, and Six Rivers National Forests. The most common geologic hazards (relatively short return intervals) in this area include landslides, rock falls, debris flows, flooding, temporary dam failures (landslide or woody debris), naturally occurring hazardous materials, (asbestos radon, etc), and rarely, karst subsidence. Seismic and volcanic hazards are also important at longer return intervals. This assessment will be conducted in three phases, and is patterned after a process developed by Region 8 of the US Forest Service. The first phase is a reconnaissance level assessment based on existing information such as spatial databases, aerial photos, Digital Elevation Models, State of California Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone maps, previous investigations and anecdotal accounts of past events. The bedrock coverage is a compilation of the best available mapping for all National Forests in California. The geomorphic coverage includes features such as active and dormant landslides, alluvial fans, headwall basins, glacial features, and valley inner gorge. Criteria will be developed which utilize elements of this data to evaluate geologic hazards in the vicinity of developed recreation sites. The second phase will be conducted later and involves site specific analyses focusing on areas identified as higher hazard in the first phase, along with verification and updating of phase 1 findings. The third phase will complete any site level geologic or hydrologic investigations, and wrap up the hazard assessment process. A summary report with hazard maps and recommendations will be prepared at the end of each phase. The overriding goal of this project is to provide sound geologic information to managers so they can use a science-based approach in recognizing and managing geologic hazards at recreation sites.

Development of regional liquefaction-induced deformation hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosinski, A.; Knudsen, K.-L.; Wu, J.; Seed, R.B.; Real, C.R.; ,

2004-01-01

This paper describes part of a project to assess the feasibility of producing regional (1:24,000-scale) liquefaction hazard maps that are based-on potential liquefaction-induced deformation. The study area is the central Santa Clara Valley, at the south end of San Francisco Bay in Central California. The information collected and used includes: a) detailed Quaternary geological mapping, b) over 650 geotechnical borings, c) probabilistic earthquake shaking information, and d) ground-water levels. Predictions of strain can be made using either empirical formulations or numerical simulations. In this project lateral spread displacements are estimated and new empirical relations to estimate future volumetric and shear strain are used. Geotechnical boring data to are used to: (a) develop isopach maps showing the thickness of sediment thatis likely to liquefy and deform under earthquake shaking; and (b) assess the variability in engineering properties within and between geologic map units. Preliminary results reveal that late Holocene deposits are likely to experience the greatest liquefaction-induced strains, while Holocene and late Pleistocene deposits are likely to experience significantly less horizontal and vertical strain in future earthquakes. Development of maps based on these analyses is feasible.

Groundwater pollution risk assessment. Application to different carbonate aquifers in south Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez Madrid, A.; Martinez Navarrete, C.; Carrasco Cantos, F.

2009-04-01

Water protection has been considered one of the most important environmental goals in the European politics since the 2000/60/CE Water Framework Directive came into force in 2000, and more specifically in 2006 with the 2006/118/CE Directive on groundwater protection. As one of the necessary requirements to tackle groundwater protection, a pollution risk assessment has been made through the analysis of both the existing hazard human activities map and the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability map, by applying the methodologies proposed by COST Action 620 in an experimental study site in south Spain containing different carbonated aquifers, which supply 8 towns ranging from 2000 to 2500 inhabitants. In order to generate both maps it was necessary to make a field inventory over a 1:10000 topographic base map, followed by Geographic Information System (GIS) processing. The outcome maps show a clear spatial distribution of both pollution risk and intrinsic vulnerability of the carbonated aquifers studied. As a final result, a map of the intensity of groundwater pollution risk is presented, representing and important base for the development of a proper methodology for the protection of groundwater resources for human consumption protection. Keywords. Hazard, Vulnerability, Risk, SIG, Protection

PHLUX: Photographic Flux Tools for Solar Glare and Flux

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

2010-12-02

A web-based tool to a) analytically and empirically quantify glare from reflected light and determine the potential impact (e.g., temporary flash blindness, retinal burn), and b) produce flux maps for central receivers. The tool accepts RAW digital photographs of the glare source (for hazard assessment) or the receiver (for flux mapping), as well as a photograph of the sun for intensity and size scaling. For glare hazard assessment, the tool determines the retinal irradiance (W/cm2) and subtended source angle for an observer and plots the glare source on a hazard spectrum (i.e., low-potential for flash blindness impact, potential for flashmore » blindness impact, retinal burn). For flux mapping, the tool provides a colored map of the receiver scaled by incident solar flux (W/m2) and unwraps the physical dimensions of the receiver while accounting for the perspective of the photographer (e.g., for a flux map of a cylindrical receiver, the horizontal axis denotes receiver angle in degrees and the vertical axis denotes vertical position in meters; for a flat panel receiver, the horizontal axis denotes horizontal position in meters and the vertical axis denotes vertical position in meters). The flux mapping capability also allows the user to specify transects along which the program plots incident solar flux on the receiver.« less

The Influence of Environmental Hazard Maps on Risk Beliefs, Emotion, and Health-related Behavioral Intentions

PubMed Central

Severtson, Dolores

2013-01-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N=446) answered questions for a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem’s seriousness mediated attributes’ influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. PMID:23533022

Definition and GIS-based characterization of an integral risk index applied to a chemical/petrochemical area.

PubMed

Nadal, Martí; Kumar, Vikas; Schuhmacher, Marta; Domingo, José L

2006-08-01

A risk map of the chemical/petrochemical industrial area of Tarragona (Catalonia, Spain) was designed following a two-stage procedure. The first step was the creation of a ranking system (Hazard Index) for a number of different inorganic and organic pollutants: heavy metals, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polychlorinated aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) by applying self-organizing maps (SOM) to persistence, bioaccumulation and toxicity properties of the chemicals. PCBs seemed to be the most hazardous compounds, while the light PAHs showed the minimum values. Subsequently, an Integral Risk Index was developed taking into account the Hazard Index and the concentrations of all pollutants in soil samples collected in the assessed area of Tarragona. Finally, a risk map was elaborated by representing the spatial distribution of the Integral Risk Index with a geographic information system (GIS). The results of the present study seem to indicate that the development of an integral risk map might be useful to help in making-decision processes concerning environmental pollutants.

Evaluation of MEDALUS model for desertification hazard zonation using GIS; study area: Iyzad Khast plain, Iran.

PubMed

Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Egbal, Mahbobeh Nik

2007-08-15

In this study, the MEDALUS model along with GIS mapping techniques are used to determine desertification hazards for a province of Iran to determine the desertification hazard. After creating a desertification database including 20 parameters, the first steps consisted of developing maps of four indices for the MEDALUS model including climate, soil, vegetation and land use were prepared. Since these parameters have mostly been presented for the Mediterranean region in the past, the next step included the addition of other indicators such as ground water and wind erosion. Then all of the layers weighted by environmental conditions present in the area were used (following the same MEDALUS framework) before a desertification map was prepared. The comparison of two maps based on the original and modified MEDALUS models indicates that the addition of more regionally-specific parameters into the model allows for a more accurate representation of desertification processes across the Iyzad Khast plain. The major factors affecting desertification in the area are climate, wind erosion and low land quality management, vegetation degradation and the salinization of soil and water resources.

Rapid field-based landslide hazard assessment in response to post-earthquake emergency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frattini, Paolo; Gambini, Stefano; Cancelliere, Giorgio

2016-04-01

On April 25, 2015 a Mw 7.8 earthquake occurred 80 km to the northwest of Kathmandu (Nepal). The largest aftershock, occurred on May 12, 2015, was the Mw 7.3 Nepal earthquake (SE of Zham, China), 80 km to the east of Kathmandu. . The earthquakes killed ~9000 people and severely damaged a 10,000 sqkm region in Nepal and neighboring countries. Several thousands of landslides have been triggered during the event, causing widespread damages to mountain villages and the evacuation of thousands of people. Rasuwa was one of the most damaged districts. This contribution describes landslide hazard analysis of the Saramthali, Yarsa and Bhorle VDCs (122 km2, Rasuwa district). Hazard is expressed in terms of qualitative classes (low, medium, high), through a simple matrix approach that combines frequency classes and magnitude classes. The hazard analysis is based primarily on the experience gained during a field survey conducted in September 2014. During the survey, local knowledge has been systematically exploited through interviews with local people that have experienced the earthquake and the coseismic landslides. People helped us to recognize fractures and active deformations, and allowed to reconstruct a correct chronicle of landslide events, in order to assign the landslide events to the first shock, the second shock, or the post-earthquake 2015 monsoon. The field experience was complemented with a standard analysis of the relationship between potential controlling factors and the distribution of landslides reported in Kargel et al (2016). This analysis allowed recognizing the most important controlling factor. This information was integrated with the field observations to verify the mapped units and to complete the mapping in area not accessible for field activity. Finally, the work was completed with the analysis and the use of a detailed landslide inventory produced by the University of Milano Bicocca that covers most of the area affected by coseismic landslides in Nepal (Valagussa et al, 2016). As a result, a 1:10.000 hazard map was produced. About 47% of the area is classified at high hazard, almost 19 % at medium level and 34% at low risk. In addition, the hazard map reports 262 polygons of active coseismic or postseismic landslides.

Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

2009-04-01

Historic volcanism in Spain is restricted to the Canary Islands, a volcanic archipelago formed by seven volcanic islands. Several historic eruptions have been registered in the last five hundred years. However, and despite the huge amount of citizens and tourist in the archipelago, only a few volcanic hazard studies have been carried out. These studies are mainly focused in the developing of hazard maps in Lanzarote and Tenerife islands, especially for land use planning. The main handicap for these studies in the Canary Islands is the lack of well reported historical eruptions, but also the lack of data such as geochronological, geochemical or structural. In recent years, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the improvement in the volcanic processes modelling has provided an important tool for volcanic hazard assessment. Although this sophisticated programs are really useful they need to be fed by a huge amount of data that sometimes, such in the case of the Canary Islands, are not available. For this reason, the Spanish Geological Survey (IGME) is developing a complete geo-referenced database for long term volcanic analysis in the Canary Islands. The Canarian Volcanic Hazard Database (HADA) is based on a GIS helping to organize and manage volcanic information efficiently. HADA includes the following groups of information: (1) 1:25.000 scale geologic maps, (2) 1:25.000 topographic maps, (3) geochronologic data, (4) geochemical data, (5) structural information, (6) climatic data. Data must pass a quality control before they are included in the database. New data are easily integrated in the database. With the HADA database the IGME has started a systematic organization of the existing data. In the near future, the IGME will generate new information to be included in HADA, such as volcanological maps of the islands, structural information, geochronological data and other information to assess long term volcanic hazard analysis. HADA will permit having enough quality information to map volcanic hazards and to run more reliable models of volcanic hazards, but in addition it aims to become a sharing system, improving communication between researchers, reducing redundant work and to be the reference for geological research in the Canary Islands.

Incorporating induced seismicity in the 2014 United States National Seismic Hazard Model: results of the 2014 workshop and sensitivity studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles S.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; Llenos, Andrea L.; Michael, Andrew J.; Ellsworth, William L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Holland, Austin A.; Anderson, John G.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated in 2014 to account for new methods, input models, and data necessary for assessing the seismic ground shaking hazard from natural (tectonic) earthquakes. The U.S. Geological Survey National Seismic Hazard Model project uses probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to quantify the rate of exceedance for earthquake ground shaking (ground motion). For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model assessment, the seismic hazard from potentially induced earthquakes was intentionally not considered because we had not determined how to properly treat these earthquakes for the seismic hazard analysis. The phrases “potentially induced” and “induced” are used interchangeably in this report, however it is acknowledged that this classification is based on circumstantial evidence and scientific judgment. For the 2014 National Seismic Hazard Model update, the potentially induced earthquakes were removed from the NSHM’s earthquake catalog, and the documentation states that we would consider alternative models for including induced seismicity in a future version of the National Seismic Hazard Model. As part of the process of incorporating induced seismicity into the seismic hazard model, we evaluate the sensitivity of the seismic hazard from induced seismicity to five parts of the hazard model: (1) the earthquake catalog, (2) earthquake rates, (3) earthquake locations, (4) earthquake Mmax (maximum magnitude), and (5) earthquake ground motions. We describe alternative input models for each of the five parts that represent differences in scientific opinions on induced seismicity characteristics. In this report, however, we do not weight these input models to come up with a preferred final model. Instead, we present a sensitivity study showing uniform seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the alternative input models for induced seismicity. The final model will be released after further consideration of the reliability and scientific acceptability of each alternative input model. Forecasting the seismic hazard from induced earthquakes is fundamentally different from forecasting the seismic hazard for natural, tectonic earthquakes. This is because the spatio-temporal patterns of induced earthquakes are reliant on economic forces and public policy decisions regarding extraction and injection of fluids. As such, the rates of induced earthquakes are inherently variable and nonstationary. Therefore, we only make maps based on an annual rate of exceedance rather than the 50-year rates calculated for previous U.S. Geological Survey hazard maps.

Mapping malaria risk using geographic information systems and remote sensing: The case of Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Minale, Amare Sewnet; Alemu, Kalkidan

2018-05-07

The main objective of this study was to develop a malaria risk map for Bahir Dar City, Amhara, which is situated south of Lake Tana on the Ethiopian plateau. Rainfall, temperature, altitude, slope and land use/land cover (LULC), as well as proximity measures to lake, river and health facilities, were investigated using remote sensing and geographical information systems. The LULC variable was derived from a 2012 SPOT satellite image by supervised classification, while 30-m spatial resolution measurements of altitude and slope came from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Metrological data were collected from the National Meteorological Agency, Bahir Dar branch. These separate datasets, represented as layers in the computer, were combined using weighted, multi-criteria evaluations. The outcome shows that rainfall, temperature, slope, elevation, distance from the lake and distance from the river influenced the malaria hazard the study area by 35%, 15%, 10%, 7%, 5% and 3%, respectively, resulting in a map showing five areas with different levels of malaria hazard: very high (11.2%); high (14.5%); moderate (63.3%); low (6%); and none (5%). The malaria risk map, based on this hazard map plus additional information on proximity to health facilities and current LULC conditions, shows that Bahir Dar City has areas with very high (15%); high (65%); moderate (8%); and low (5%) levels of malaria risk, with only 2% of the land completely riskfree. Such risk maps are essential for planning, implementing, monitoring and evaluating disease control as well as for contemplating prevention and elimination of epidemiological hazards from endemic areas.

The influence of environmental hazard maps on risk beliefs, emotion, and health-related behavioral intentions.

PubMed

Severtson, Dolores J

2013-08-01

To test a theoretical explanation of how attributes of mapped environmental health hazards influence health-related behavioral intentions and how beliefs and emotion mediate the influences of attributes, 24 maps were developed that varied by four attributes of a residential drinking water hazard: level, proximity, prevalence, and density. In a factorial design, student participants (N = 446) answered questions about a subset of maps. Hazard level and proximity had the largest influences on intentions to test water and mitigate exposure. Belief in the problem's seriousness mediated attributes' influence on intention to test drinking water, and perceived susceptibility mediated the influence of attributes on intention to mitigate risk. Maps with carefully illustrated attributes of hazards may promote appropriate health-related risk beliefs, intentions, and behavior. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Risi, Raffaele; Goda, Katsuichiro

2017-08-01

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

Developing a scientific procedure for community based hazard mapping and risk mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verrier, M.

2011-12-01

As an international exchange student from the Geological Sciences Department at San Diego State University (SDSU), I joined the KKN-PPM program at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in July 2011 for 12 days (July 4th to July 16th) of its two month duration (July 4th to August 25th). The KKN-PPM group I was attached was designated 154 and was focused in Plosorejo Village, Karanganyar, Kerjo, Central Java, Indonesia. The mission of KKN-PPM 154 was to survey Plosorejo village for existing landslides, to generate a simple hazard susceptibility map that can be understood by local villagers, and then to begin dissemination of that map into the community. To generate our susceptibility map we first conducted a geological survey of the existing landslides in the field study area, with a focus on determining landslide triggers and gauging areas for susceptibility for future landslides. The methods for gauging susceptibility included lithological observation, the presence of linear cracking, visible loss of structural integrity in structures such as villager homes, as well as collaboration with local residents and with the local rescue and response team. There were three color distinctions used in representing susceptibility which were green, where there is no immediate danger of landslide damage; orange, where transportation routes are at risk of being disrupted by landslides; and red, where imminent landslide potential puts a home in direct danger. The landslide inventory and susceptibility data was compiled into digital mediums such as CorelDraw, ArcGIS and Google Earth. Once a technical map was generated, we presented it to the village leadership for confirmation and modification based on their experience. Finally, we began to use the technical susceptibility map to draft evacuation routes and meeting points in the event of landslides, as well as simple susceptibility maps that can be understood and utilized by local villagers. Landslide mitigation projects that are being conducted alongside the community hazard map include marking evacuation routes with painted bamboo signs, creating a meaningful landslide awareness mural, and installing simple early warning systems that detect land movement and alert residents that evacuation routes should be used. KKN-PPM is scheduled to continue until August 25th, 2011. In the future, research will be done into using the model for community based hazard mapping outlined here in the Geological Sciences Department at SDSU to increase georisk awareness and improve mitigation of landslides in local areas of need such as Tijuana, Mexico.

Comparing the Performance of Japan's Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S. A.; Spencer, B. D.

2015-12-01

The devastating 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake and the resulting shaking and tsunami were much larger than anticipated in earthquake hazard maps. Because this and all other earthquakes that caused ten or more fatalities in Japan since 1979 occurred in places assigned a relatively low hazard, Geller (2011) argued that "all of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographic areas," so a map showing uniform hazard would be preferable to the existing map. Defenders of the maps countered by arguing that these earthquakes are low-probability events allowed by the maps, which predict the levels of shaking that should expected with a certain probability over a given time. Although such maps are used worldwide in making costly policy decisions for earthquake-resistant construction, how well these maps actually perform is unknown. We explore this hotly-contested issue by comparing how well a 510-year-long record of earthquake shaking in Japan is described by the Japanese national hazard (JNH) maps, uniform maps, and randomized maps. Surprisingly, as measured by the metric implicit in the JNH maps, i.e. that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion should be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, both uniform and randomized maps do better than the actual maps. However, using as a metric the squared misfit between maximum observed shaking and that predicted, the JNH maps do better than uniform or randomized maps. These results indicate that the JNH maps are not performing as well as expected, that what factors control map performance is complicated, and that learning more about how maps perform and why would be valuable in making more effective policy.

Modelling Multi Hazard Mapping in Semarang City Using GIS-Fuzzy Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nugraha, A. L.; Awaluddin, M.; Sasmito, B.

2018-02-01

One important aspect of disaster mitigation planning is hazard mapping. Hazard mapping can provide spatial information on the distribution of locations that are threatened by disaster. Semarang City as the capital of Central Java Province is one of the cities with high natural disaster intensity. Frequent natural disasters Semarang city is tidal flood, floods, landslides, and droughts. Therefore, Semarang City needs spatial information by doing multi hazard mapping to support disaster mitigation planning in Semarang City. Multi Hazards map modelling can be derived from parameters such as slope maps, rainfall, land use, and soil types. This modelling is done by using GIS method with scoring and overlay technique. However, the accuracy of modelling would be better if the GIS method is combined with Fuzzy Logic techniques to provide a good classification in determining disaster threats. The Fuzzy-GIS method will build a multi hazards map of Semarang city can deliver results with good accuracy and with appropriate threat class spread so as to provide disaster information for disaster mitigation planning of Semarang city. from the multi-hazard modelling using GIS-Fuzzy can be known type of membership that has a good accuracy is the type of membership Gauss with RMSE of 0.404 the smallest of the other membership and VAF value of 72.909% of the largest of the other membership.

A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

2015-12-01

Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

2014-05-01

The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Publications - DDS 10 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska Products Interactive Interactive Map Alaska Tsunami Inundation Maps Keywords Coastal and River; Geologic

Project of Near-Real-Time Generation of ShakeMaps and a New Hazard Map in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Yan; Weginger, Stefan; Horn, Nikolaus; Hausmann, Helmut; Lenhardt, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

Target-orientated prevention and effective crisis management can reduce or avoid damage and save lives in case of a strong earthquake. To achieve this goal, a project for automatic generated ShakeMaps (maps of ground motion and shaking intensity) and updating the Austrian hazard map was started at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik) in 2015. The first goal of the project is set for a near-real-time generation of ShakeMaps following strong earthquakes in Austria to provide rapid, accurate and official information to support the governmental crisis management. Using newly developed methods and software by SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe) and GEM (Global Earthquake Model), which allows a transnational analysis at European level, a new generation of Austrian hazard maps will be ultimately calculated. More information and a status of our project will be given by this presentation.

Central US earthquake catalog for hazard maps of Memphis, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, R.L.; Mueller, C.S.

2001-01-01

An updated version of the catalog that was used for the current national probabilistic seismic-hazard maps would suffice for production of large-scale hazard maps of the Memphis urban area. Deaggregation maps provide guidance as to the area that a catalog for calculating Memphis hazard should cover. For the future, the Nuttli and local network catalogs could be examined for earthquakes not presently included in the catalog. Additional work on aftershock removal might reduce hazard uncertainty. Graphs of decadal and annual earthquake rates suggest completeness at and above magnitude 3 for the last three or four decades. Any additional work on completeness should consider the effects of rapid, local population changes during the Nation's westward expansion. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Rockfall hazard assessment integrating probabilistic physically based rockfall source detection (Norddal municipality, Norway).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yugsi Molina, F. X.; Oppikofer, T.; Fischer, L.; Hermanns, R. L.; Taurisano, A.

2012-04-01

Traditional techniques to assess rockfall hazard are partially based on probabilistic analysis. Stochastic methods has been used for run-out analysis of rock blocks to estimate the trajectories that a detached block will follow during its fall until it stops due to kinetic energy loss. However, the selection of rockfall source areas is usually defined either by multivariate analysis or by field observations. For either case, a physically based approach is not used for the source area detection. We present an example of rockfall hazard assessment that integrates a probabilistic rockfall run-out analysis with a stochastic assessment of the rockfall source areas using kinematic stability analysis in a GIS environment. The method has been tested for a steep more than 200 m high rock wall, located in the municipality of Norddal (Møre og Romsdal county, Norway), where a large number of people are either exposed to snow avalanches, rockfalls, or debris flows. The area was selected following the recently published hazard mapping plan of Norway. The cliff is formed by medium to coarse-grained quartz-dioritic to granitic gneisses of Proterozoic age. Scree deposits product of recent rockfall activity are found at the bottom of the rock wall. Large blocks can be found several tens of meters away from the cliff in Sylte, the main locality in the Norddal municipality. Structural characterization of the rock wall was done using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) point clouds in the software Coltop3D (www.terranum.ch), and results were validated with field data. Orientation data sets from the structural characterization were analyzed separately to assess best-fit probability density functions (PDF) for both dip angle and dip direction angle of each discontinuity set. A GIS-based stochastic kinematic analysis was then carried out using the discontinuity set orientations and the friction angle as random variables. An airborne laser scanning digital elevation model (ALS-DEM) with 1 m resolution was used for the analysis. Three failure mechanisms were analyzed: planar and wedge sliding, as well as toppling. Based on this kinematic analysis, areas where failure is feasible were used as source areas for run out analysis using Rockyfor3D v. 4.1 (www.ecorisq.org). The software calculates trajectories of single falling blocks in three dimensions using physically based algorithms developed under a stochastic approach. The ALS-DEM was down-scaled to 5 m resolution to optimize processing time. Results were compared with run-out simulations using Rockyfor3D with the whole rock wall as source area, and with maps of deposits generated from field observations and aerial photo interpretation. The results product of our implementation show a better correlation with field observations, and help to produce more accurate rock fall hazard assessment maps by a better definition of the source areas. It reduces the time processing for the analysis as well. The findings presented in this contribution are part of an effort to produce guidelines for natural hazard mapping in Norway. Guidelines will be used in upcoming years for hazard mapping in areas where larger groups of population are exposed to mass movements from steep slopes.

Seismic hazard maps of Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanner, J.G.; Shedlock, K.M.

2004-01-01

The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard and/or economic constraints. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. We have produced a suite of seismic hazard estimates for Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America. One of the preliminary maps in this suite served as the basis for the Caribbean and Central and South America portion of the Global Seismic Hazard Map (GSHM) published in 1999, which depicted peak ground acceleration (pga) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. Herein we present maps depicting pga and 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations (SA) with 50%, 10%, and 2% chances of exceedance in 50 years for rock sites. The seismicity catalog used in the generation of these maps adds 3 more years of data to those used to calculate the GSH Map. Different attenuation functions (consistent with those used to calculate the U.S. and Canadian maps) were used as well. These nine maps are designed to assist in global risk mitigation by providing a general seismic hazard framework and serving as a resource for any national or regional agency to help focus further detailed studies required for regional/local needs. The largest seismic hazard values in Mexico, the Caribbean, and Central and South America generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. High hazard values occur in areas where shallow-to-intermediate seismicity occurs frequently. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios for India—a preventive tool for disaster mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parvez, Imtiyaz A.; Magrin, Andrea; Vaccari, Franco; Ashish; Mir, Ramees R.; Peresan, Antonella; Panza, Giuliano Francesco

2017-11-01

Current computational resources and physical knowledge of the seismic wave generation and propagation processes allow for reliable numerical and analytical models of waveform generation and propagation. From the simulation of ground motion, it is easy to extract the desired earthquake hazard parameters. Accordingly, a scenario-based approach to seismic hazard assessment has been developed, namely the neo-deterministic seismic hazard assessment (NDSHA), which allows for a wide range of possible seismic sources to be used in the definition of reliable scenarios by means of realistic waveforms modelling. Such reliable and comprehensive characterization of expected earthquake ground motion is essential to improve building codes, particularly for the protection of critical infrastructures and for land use planning. Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003) published the first ever neo-deterministic seismic hazard map of India by computing synthetic seismograms with input data set consisting of structural models, seismogenic zones, focal mechanisms and earthquake catalogues. As described in Panza et al. (Adv Geophys 53:93-165, 2012), the NDSHA methodology evolved with respect to the original formulation used by Parvez et al. (Geophys J Int 155:489-508, 2003): the computer codes were improved to better fit the need of producing realistic ground shaking maps and ground shaking scenarios, at different scale levels, exploiting the most significant pertinent progresses in data acquisition and modelling. Accordingly, the present study supplies a revised NDSHA map for India. The seismic hazard, expressed in terms of maximum displacement (Dmax), maximum velocity (Vmax) and design ground acceleration (DGA), has been extracted from the synthetic signals and mapped on a regular grid over the studied territory.

Quantifying the uncertainty in site amplification modeling and its effects on site-specific seismic-hazard estimation in the upper Mississippi embayment and adjacent areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2006-01-01

The Mississippi embayment, located in the central United States, and its thick deposits of sediments (over 1 km in places) have a large effect on earthquake ground motions. Several previous studies have addressed how these thick sediments might modify probabilistic seismic-hazard maps. The high seismic hazard associated with the New Madrid seismic zone makes it particularly important to quantify the uncertainty in modeling site amplification to better represent earthquake hazard in seismic-hazard maps. The methodology of the Memphis urban seismic-hazard-mapping project (Cramer et al., 2004) is combined with the reference profile approach of Toro and Silva (2001) to better estimate seismic hazard in the Mississippi embayment. Improvements over previous approaches include using the 2002 national seismic-hazard model, fully probabilistic hazard calculations, calibration of site amplification with improved nonlinear soil-response estimates, and estimates of uncertainty. Comparisons are made with the results of several previous studies, and estimates of uncertainty inherent in site-amplification modeling for the upper Mississippi embayment are developed. I present new seismic-hazard maps for the upper Mississippi embayment with the effects of site geology incorporating these uncertainties.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Robert A.; Steckel, Phyllis; Schweig, Eugene

2007-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project will produce digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. They can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes.

Application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system to ground subsidence hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Inhye; Choi, Jaewon; Jin Lee, Moung; Lee, Saro

2012-11-01

We constructed hazard maps of ground subsidence around abandoned underground coal mines (AUCMs) in Samcheok City, Korea, using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and a geographical information system (GIS). To evaluate the factors related to ground subsidence, a spatial database was constructed from topographic, geologic, mine tunnel, land use, and ground subsidence maps. An attribute database was also constructed from field investigations and reports on existing ground subsidence areas at the study site. Five major factors causing ground subsidence were extracted: (1) depth of drift; (2) distance from drift; (3) slope gradient; (4) geology; and (5) land use. The adaptive ANFIS model with different types of membership functions (MFs) was then applied for ground subsidence hazard mapping in the study area. Two ground subsidence hazard maps were prepared using the different MFs. Finally, the resulting ground subsidence hazard maps were validated using the ground subsidence test data which were not used for training the ANFIS. The validation results showed 95.12% accuracy using the generalized bell-shaped MF model and 94.94% accuracy using the Sigmoidal2 MF model. These accuracy results show that an ANFIS can be an effective tool in ground subsidence hazard mapping. Analysis of ground subsidence with the ANFIS model suggests that quantitative analysis of ground subsidence near AUCMs is possible.

Seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.

1999-01-01

Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local government, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful regional seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of North and Central America and the Caribbean depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The highest seismic hazard values in the region generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Penobscot County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program (MFMP), began scoping work in 2006 for Penobscot County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Penobscot County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. As of 2007, the average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Penobscot County, Maine, is 22 years, based on the most recent revisions to the maps. Because the revisions did not affect all the map panels in each town, however, the true average date probably is more than 22 years. Many of the studies were published in the mid-1980s. Since the studies were completed, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sparks, R. S.

2009-12-01

A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are many sources of uncertainty in forecasting the areas that volcanic activity will effect and the severity of the effects. Uncertainties arise from: natural variability, inadequate data, biased data, incomplete data, lack of understanding of the processes, limitations to predictive models, ambiguity, and unknown unknowns. The description of volcanic hazards is thus necessarily probabilistic and requires assessment of the attendant uncertainties. Several issues arise from the probabilistic nature of volcanic hazards and the intrinsic uncertainties. Although zonation maps require well-defined boundaries for administrative pragmatism, such boundaries cannot divide areas that are completely safe from those that are unsafe. Levels of danger or safety need to be defined to decide on and justify boundaries through the concepts of vulnerability and risk. More data, better observations, improved models may reduce uncertainties, but can increase uncertainties and may lead to re-appraisal of zone boundaries. Probabilities inferred by statistical techniques are hard to communicate. Expert elicitation is an emerging methodology for risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation. The method has been applied at one major volcanic crisis (Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat), and is being applied in planning for volcanic crises at Vesuvius.

Method for the Preparation of Hazard Map in Urban Area Using Soil Depth and Groundwater Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sung-Wook; Choi, Eun-Kyeong; Cho, Jin Woo; Lee, Ju-Hyoung

2017-04-01

The hazard maps for predicting collapse on natural slopes consists of a combination of topographic, hydrological, and geological factors. Topographic factors are extracted from DEM, including aspect, slope, curvature, and topographic index. Hydrological factors, such as distance to drainage, drainage density, stream-power index, and wetness index are most important factors for slope instability. However, most of the urban areas are located on the plains and it is difficult to apply the hazard map using the topography and hydrological factors. In order to evaluate the risk of collapse of flat and low slope areas, soil depth and groundwater level data were collected and used as a factor for interpretation. In addition, the reliability of the hazard map was compared with the disaster history of the study area (Gangnam-gu and Yeouido district). In the disaster map of the disaster prevention agency, the urban area was mostly classified as the stable area and did not reflect the collapse history. Soil depth, drainage conditions and groundwater level obtained from boreholes were added as input data of hazard map, and disaster vulnerability increased at the location where the actual collapse points. In the study area where damage occurred, the moderate and low grades of the vulnerability of previous hazard map were 12% and 88%, respectively. While, the improved map showed 2% high grade, moderate grade 29%, low grade 66% and very low grade 2%. These results were similar to actual damage. Keywords: hazard map, urban area, soil depth, ground water level Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant from a Strategic Research Project (Horizontal Drilling and Stabilization Technologies for Urban Search and Rescue (US&R) Operation) funded by the Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology.

The use of Near-surface Geophysics in Evaluating and Assessing Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellerin, L.

2007-12-01

The list of natural hazards that transform the physical environmental is extensive: earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, volcanoes, lahars, landslides and debris flows, avalanches, karst/cavern collapse, heavy-metal contamination, permafrost, liquefaction, and magnetic storms. Because these events or conditions can have significant negative impact on health and infrastructure, the need for knowledge about and education of natural hazards is important. Near-surface geophysics can contribute in significant ways to both the knowledge base and wider understanding of these hazards. The discipline encompasses a wide range of methodologies, some of which are described below. A post-tsunami helicopter electromagnetic (EM) survey along the coasts of Aceh, northern Sumatra was used to discriminate between fresh-water and saltwater aquifers., saltwater intrusion occurred close to the coast as a result of the tsunami and deep saltwater occurrences particularly around 30 m depth were mapped up to several kilometers inland. Based on the survey results recommendations were made to locate shallow hand-dug wells and medium depth (60m) water wells. Utilizing airborne EM and magnetic measurements, a detailed assessment of the internal distribution of altered zones within an active volcano; Mount Rainier (NW USA) showed that alteration is much more restricted than had been inferred from surficial exposures alone. The study also suggested that the collapse of fresh, unaltered portions of the volcano is possible, and no flank of the volcano can be considered immune from lahars during eruption. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has been used worldwide in a variety of applications from geotechnical investigations related to geologic hazards. These include assessment of transportation infrastructure, which maybe be damaged due to a natural hazard, study of the movement of rock glaciers in the Swiss Alps, and search and recovery of avalanche victims. Permafrost is widespread in polar areas and cold mountain terrain. GPR, electrical resistivity and EM methods have been used successfully to map permafrost and massive ground ice. The stability of these materials has impact on building and development within these regions. Mass movements in lowland permafrost terrain, which have implications for climate change, are being monitoring with thermal borehole measurements. Whether in times of flood or draught, understanding our watersheds is an important use of near surface geophysics. Satellite-based remote sensing methods are used to efficiently obtain soil moisture measurements over large regions. Ground-based conductivity meters are used to map soil types that play a fundamental role affecting the pattern of stream flow response. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is used to directly measure surface deformation, which can be related to subsurface hydrological conditions, aseismic deformation or landslides. Resolution of fine as 2mm/year can be obtained from satellite-based measurements. This level of resolutions aids in seismic risk assessment and allows the extent of landslides to be mapped and monitored efficiently. A series of national probabilistic seismic shaking hazard maps are being produced by the US Geological Survey using gravity, magnetic and seismic data in addition to other information. They can be used as input for many policy decisions on building codes and land use, and to estimate the probabilities of strong earthquakes, detailed maps of shaking amplification and susceptibility to liquefaction and landslides, and planning scenarios of large urban earthquakes.

Pyroclastic flow hazard at Volcán Citlaltépetl

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sheridan, Michael F.; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Siebe, Claus

2004-01-01

Volcán Citlaltépetl (Pico de Orizaba) with an elevation of 5,675 m is the highest volcano in North America. Its most recent catastrophic events involved the production of pyroclastic flows that erupted approximately 4,000, 8,500, and 13,000 years ago. The distribution of mapped deposits from these eruptions gives an approximate guide to the extent of products from potential future eruptions. Because the topography of this volcano is constantly changing computer simulations were made on the present topography using three computer algorithms: energy cone, FLOW2D, and FLOW3D. The Heim Coefficient (μ), used as a code parameter for frictional sliding in all our algorithms, is the ratio of the assumed drop in elevation (H) divided by the lateral extent of the mapped deposits (L). The viscosity parameter for the FLOW2D and FLOW3D codes was adjusted so that the paths of the flows mimicked those inferred from the mapped deposits. We modeled two categories of pyroclastic flows modeled for the level I and level II events. Level I pyroclastic flows correspond to small but more frequent block-and-ash flows that remain on the main cone. Level II flows correspond to more widespread flows from catastrophic eruptions with an approximate 4,000-year repose period. We developed hazard maps from simulations based on a National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) DTED-1 DEM with a 90 m grid and a vertical accuracy of ±30 m. Because realistic visualization is an important aid to understanding the risks related to volcanic hazards we present the DEM as modeled by FLOW3D. The model shows that the pyroclastic flows extend for much greater distances to the east of the volcano summit where the topographic relief is nearly 4,300 m. This study was used to plot hazard zones for pyroclastic flows in the official hazard map that was published recently.

Implementation of NGA-West2 ground motion models in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Powers, Peter; Harmsen, Stephen C.; Frankel, Arthur D.

2014-01-01

The U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) have been an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States for the past several decades. These maps present earthquake ground shaking intensities at specified probabilities of being exceeded over a 50-year time period. The previous version of the NSHMs was developed in 2008; during 2012 and 2013, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey have been updating the maps based on their assessment of the “best available science,” resulting in the 2014 NSHMs. The update includes modifications to the seismic source models and the ground motion models (GMMs) for sites across the conterminous United States. This paper focuses on updates in the Western United States (WUS) due to the use of new GMMs for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions developed by the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA-West2) project. Individual GMMs, their weighted combination, and their impact on the hazard maps relative to 2008 are discussed. In general, the combined effects of lower medians and increased standard deviations in the new GMMs have caused only small changes, within 5–20%, in the probabilistic ground motions for most sites across the WUS compared to the 2008 NSHMs.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program Pr-Nthmp

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Hincapie-Cardenas, C. M.

2014-12-01

Tsunami hazard assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts are intended to reduce losses to life and property. The Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies, to developing tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the National Tsunami Hazards and Mitigation Program (NTHMP). This grant supports the TsunamiReady program which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. The seismic water waves originating in the prominent fault systems around PR are considered to be a near-field hazard for Puerto Rico and the Virgin islands (PR/VI) because they can reach coastal areas within a few minutes after the earthquake. Sources for local, regional and tele tsunamis have been identified and modeled and tsunami evacuation maps were prepared for PR. These maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios on the basis of the parameters of potential underwater earthquakes were developed. Secondly, each of these scenarios was simulated. The third step was to determine the worst case scenario (MOM). The run-ups were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Online maps and related evacuation products are available to the public via the PR-TDST (PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool). Currently all the 44 coastal municipalities were recognized as TsunamiReady by the US NWS. The main goal of the program is to declare Puerto Rico as TsunamiReady, including two cities that are not coastal but could be affected by tsunamis. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP project, including the real time earthquake and tsunami monitoring as well as the specific protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach in Puerto Rico.

New techniques on oil spill modelling applied in the Eastern Mediterranean sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Kokinou, Eleni; Alves, Tiago; Lardner, Robin

2016-04-01

Small or large oil spills resulting from accidents on oil and gas platforms or due to the maritime traffic comprise a major environmental threat for all marine and coastal systems, and they are responsible for huge economic losses concerning the human infrastructures and the tourism. This work aims at presenting the integration of oil-spill model, bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, geomorphological and geological data to assess the impact of oil spills in maritime regions such as bays, as well as in the open sea, carried out in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea within the frame of NEREIDs, MEDESS-4MS and RAOP-Med EU projects. The MEDSLIK oil spill predictions are successfully combined with bathymetric analyses, the shoreline susceptibility and hazard mapping to predict the oil slick trajectories and the extend of the coastal areas affected. Based on MEDSLIK results, oil spill spreading and dispersion scenarios are produced both for non-mitigated and mitigated oil spills. MEDSLIK model considers three response combating methods of floating oil spills: a) mechanical recovery using skimmers or similar mechanisms; b) destruction by fire, c) use of dispersants or other bio-chemical means and deployment of booms. Shoreline susceptibility map can be compiled for the study areas based on the Environmental Susceptibility Index. The ESI classification considers a range of values between 1 and 9, with level 1 (ESI 1) representing areas of low susceptibility, impermeable to oil spilt during accidents, such as linear shorelines with rocky cliffs. In contrast, ESI 9 shores are highly vulnerable, and often coincide with natural reserves and special protected areas. Additionally, hazard maps of the maritime and coastal areas, possibly exposed to the danger on an oil spill, evaluate and categorize the hazard in levels from low to very high. This is important because a) Prior to an oil spill accident, hazard and shoreline susceptibility maps are made available to design preparedness and prevention plans in an effective way, b) After an oil spill accident, oil spill predictions can be combined with hazard maps to provide information on the oil spill dispersion and their impacts. This way, prevention plans can be directly modified at any time after the accident.

Development of District-Based Mineral-Hazards Maps for Highways in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Fonseca, M. C.

2011-12-01

The California Geological Survey (CGS) currently is developing a series of unpublished maps for the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) that shows potential for mineral hazards within each of the twelve highway districts administered by that agency. Where present along or near highway corridors, such hazards may pose problems for human health and safety or the environment. Prepared at a scale of 1:250,000, the maps are designed as initial screening tools for Caltrans staff to use to improve planning of activities that involve new construction projects, routine maintenance of highways, and emergency removal of debris deposited on roads by natural processes. Although the basic presentation of each type of thematic map in the series is the same, some customization and focus are allowed for each district because each has unique issues concerning potential for mineral hazards. The maps display many natural and man-made features that may be potential sources of mineral hazards within each district. Features compiled and evaluated under our definition of "mineral hazards" are: 1) naturally-occurring asbestos (NOA); 2) natural occurrences of various regulated metals (Ag, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mo, Ni, Pb, Tl, V, Zn) and metalloids (As, Sb, Se) as well as other pertinent metals, such as Mn and U; 3) faults, which can be sites of increased potential for certain types of mineralization, such as NOA; 4) mines and prospects, which can be sources of anomalous concentrations of metals as well as ore-processing chemicals; 5) natural petroleum features, such as oil and natural-gas seeps; 6) natural geothermal features, such as thermal springs and fumaroles; and 7) oil, natural-gas, and geothermal wells. Because of their greater potential as sources of mineral hazards, localities designated on the maps as "areas of potential mineralogical concern" are of particular interest to Caltrans. Examples include significant mining districts, such as New Almaden (Hg) near San Jose, and bedrock units such as serpentinite (NOA, Cr, Ni) and the Monterey Formation (Cd) and similar organic-carbon-rich and phosphate-rich Cenozoic marine sedimentary rocks (Cd, Se), all of which are common in the southern Coast Ranges. Some areas, present mainly in the Mojave Desert and east of the Sierra Nevada, comprise dry lake beds that can be sources of wind-blown dust, which may contain mineral hazards (e.g., As). Watershed boundaries and streams, superimposed on shaded topographic relief, are also shown on the maps to help Caltrans staff determine if drainages that intersect highway corridors may contain deleterious materials eroded and transported from upstream geologic features or mining areas. Besides the 1:250,000-scale maps, which are prepared as both paper copies and .pdf files, individual digital thematic layers of the features described above are prepared for use in GIS software and in-house image-viewers (CT Earth) employed by Caltrans. These layers provide additional information not displayed on the maps (e.g., directions of stream flow; characteristics of individual mines), which allows more-sophisticated analysis for possible mineral hazards.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Global river flood hazard maps: hydraulic modelling methods and appropriate uses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townend, Samuel; Smith, Helen; Molloy, James

2014-05-01

Flood hazard is not well understood or documented in many parts of the world. Consequently, the (re-)insurance sector now needs to better understand where the potential for considerable river flooding aligns with significant exposure. For example, international manufacturing companies are often attracted to countries with emerging economies, meaning that events such as the 2011 Thailand floods have resulted in many multinational businesses with assets in these regions incurring large, unexpected losses. This contribution addresses and critically evaluates the hydraulic methods employed to develop a consistent global scale set of river flood hazard maps, used to fill the knowledge gap outlined above. The basis of the modelling approach is an innovative, bespoke 1D/2D hydraulic model (RFlow) which has been used to model a global river network of over 5.3 million kilometres. Estimated flood peaks at each of these model nodes are determined using an empirically based rainfall-runoff approach linking design rainfall to design river flood magnitudes. The hydraulic model is used to determine extents and depths of floodplain inundation following river bank overflow. From this, deterministic flood hazard maps are calculated for several design return periods between 20-years and 1,500-years. Firstly, we will discuss the rationale behind the appropriate hydraulic modelling methods and inputs chosen to produce a consistent global scaled river flood hazard map. This will highlight how a model designed to work with global datasets can be more favourable for hydraulic modelling at the global scale and why using innovative techniques customised for broad scale use are preferable to modifying existing hydraulic models. Similarly, the advantages and disadvantages of both 1D and 2D modelling will be explored and balanced against the time, computer and human resources available, particularly when using a Digital Surface Model at 30m resolution. Finally, we will suggest some appropriate uses of global scale hazard maps and explore how this new approach can be invaluable in areas of the world where flood hazard and risk have not previously been assessed.

The Puerto Rico Component of the National Tsunami Hazard and Mitigation Program (PR-NTHMP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanacore, E. A.; Huerfano Moreno, V. A.; Lopez, A. M.

2015-12-01

The Caribbean region has a documented history of damaging tsunamis that have affected coastal areas. Of particular interest is the Puerto Rico - Virgin Islands (PRVI) region, where the proximity of the coast to prominent tectonic faults would result in near-field tsunamis. Tsunami hazard assessment, detection capabilities, warning, education and outreach efforts are common tools intended to reduce loss of life and property. It is for these reasons that the PRSN is participating in an effort with local and federal agencies to develop tsunami hazard risk reduction strategies under the NTHMP. This grant supports the TsunamiReady program, which is the base of the tsunami preparedness and mitigation in PR. In order to recognize threatened communities in PR as TsunamiReady by the US NWS, the PR Component of the NTHMP have identified and modeled sources for local, regional and tele-tsunamis and the results of simulations have been used to develop tsunami response plans. The main goal of the PR-NTHMP is to strengthen resilient coastal communities that are prepared for tsunami hazards, and recognize PR as TsunamiReady. Evacuation maps were generated in three phases: First, hypothetical tsunami scenarios of potential underwater earthquakes were developed, and these scenarios were then modeled through during the second phase. The third phase consisted in determining the worst-case scenario based on the Maximum of Maximums (MOM). Inundation and evacuation zones were drawn on GIS referenced maps and aerial photographs. These products are being used by emergency managers to educate the public and develop mitigation strategies. Maps and related evacuation products, like evacuation times, can be accessed online via the PR Tsunami Decision Support Tool. Based on these evacuation maps, tsunami signs were installed, vulnerability profiles were created, communication systems to receive and disseminate tsunami messages were installed in each TWFP, and tsunami response plans were approved. Also, the existing tsunami protocol and criteria in the PR/VI was updated. This paper describes the PR-NTHMP recent outcomes, including the real time monitoring as well as the protocols used to broadcast tsunami messages. The paper highlights tsunami hazards assessment, detection, warning, education and outreach efforts in Puerto Rico.

Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, J.-C.; Enjolras, G.; Martelli, K.; Santoni, O.; Luque, J. A.; Nagata, M.; Arguedas, A.; Macedo, L.

2013-02-01

Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash flood and lahar hazards, which are localized along the usually dry (except for the rainy season) ravines and channels of the Río Chili and its tributaries that dissect the city. Our risk-evaluation study is based mostly on field surveys and mapping, but we also took into account quality and structural integrity of buildings, available socio-economic data, and information gained from interviews with risk-managers officials. In our evaluation of the vulnerability of various parts of the city, in addition to geological and physical parameters, we also took into account selected socio-economic parameters, such as the educational and poverty level of the population, unemployment figures, and population density. In addition, we utilized a criterion of the "isolation factor", based on distances to access emergency resources (hospitals, shelters or safety areas, and water) in each city block. By combining the hazard, vulnerability and exposure criteria, we produced detailed risk-zone maps at the city-block scale, covering the whole city of Arequipa and adjacent suburbs. Not surprisingly, these maps show that the areas at high risk coincide with blocks or districts with populations at low socio-economic levels. Inhabitants at greatest risk are the poor recent immigrants from rural areas who live in unauthorized settlements in the outskirts of the city in the upper parts of the valleys. Such settlements are highly exposed to natural hazards and have little access to vital resources. Our study provides good rationale for the risk zoning of the city, which in turn may be used as an educational tool for better understanding the potential effects of natural hazards and the exposure of the population residing in and around Arequipa. We hope that our work and the risk-zonation maps will provide the impetus and basis for risk-management authorities of the Municipality and the regional government of Arequipa to enforce existing regulations in building in hazardous zones and to adopt an effective long-term strategy to reduce risks from lahar, flash flood, and other natural hazards.

Geologic Maps as the Foundation of Mineral-Hazards Maps in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Higgins, C. T.; Churchill, R. K.; Downey, C. I.; Clinkenbeard, J. P.; Fonseca, M. C.

2010-12-01

The basic geologic map is essential to the development of products that help planners, engineers, government officials, and the general public make decisions concerning natural hazards. Such maps are the primary foundation that the California Geological Survey (CGS) uses to prepare maps that show potential for mineral-hazards. Examples of clients that request these maps are the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and California Department of Public Health (CDPH). Largely because of their non-catastrophic nature, mineral hazards have received much less public attention compared to earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and floods. Nonetheless, mineral hazards can be a major concern locally when considering human health and safety and potential contamination of the environment by human activities such as disposal of earth materials. To address some of these concerns, the CGS has focused its mineral-hazards maps on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA), radon, and various potentially toxic metals as well as certain artificial features such as mines and oil and gas wells. The maps range in scope from statewide to counties and Caltrans districts to segments of selected highways. To develop the hazard maps, the CGS begins with traditional paper and digital versions of basic geologic maps, which are obtained from many sources such as its own files, the USGS, USDA Forest Service, California Department of Water Resources, and counties. For each study area, these maps present many challenges of compilation related to vintage, scale, definition of units, and edge-matching across map boundaries. The result of each CGS compilation is a digital geologic layer that is subsequently reinterpreted and transformed into new digital layers (e.g., lithologic) that focus on the geochemical and mineralogical properties of the area’s earth materials and structures. These intermediate layers are then integrated with other technical data to derive final digital layers that show potential for mineral hazards. Depending on the type of mineral hazard investigated, qualitative and/or quantitative methods are used in this process. The final information is given to CGS clients in various formats that range from traditional paper maps to attributed digital layers, which can be viewed on background digital imagery in 2D or 3D with image viewers or GIS software. This variety of formats assures that users with different levels of computer experience or available computer resources can access the information. Besides the applications presented here, mineral-hazards mapping can also be used in many other settings and situations as a tool to evaluate potential effects on human health and the environment. Examples include fighting forest fires, harvesting of timber, post-fire debris flows during storms, disposal or import of earth materials for non-highway construction projects, and rural areas used for recreation (hiking, motorcycling, etc.). In the future, the CGS expects to investigate and possibly employ more-sophisticated digital algorithms to rate and display the potential for specific mineral hazards on its maps. The geologist’s knowledge and experience will still be needed, however, to review these digital results to decide if they are reasonable.

Neo-Deterministic and Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessments: a Comparative Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peresan, Antonella; Magrin, Andrea; Nekrasova, Anastasia; Kossobokov, Vladimir; Panza, Giuliano F.

2016-04-01

Objective testing is the key issue towards any reliable seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Different earthquake hazard maps must demonstrate their capability in anticipating ground shaking from future strong earthquakes before an appropriate use for different purposes - such as engineering design, insurance, and emergency management. Quantitative assessment of maps performances is an essential step also in scientific process of their revision and possible improvement. Cross-checking of probabilistic models with available observations and independent physics based models is recognized as major validation procedure. The existing maps from the classical probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), as well as those from the neo-deterministic analysis (NDSHA), which have been already developed for several regions worldwide (including Italy, India and North Africa), are considered to exemplify the possibilities of the cross-comparative analysis in spotting out limits and advantages of different methods. Where the data permit, a comparative analysis versus the documented seismic activity observed in reality is carried out, showing how available observations about past earthquakes can contribute to assess performances of the different methods. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for consideration of a wide range of possible earthquake sources as the starting point for scenarios constructed via full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of empirical attenuation models (i.e. Ground Motion Prediction Equations, GMPE) and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking (i.e. complete synthetic seismograms), readily applicable to complete engineering analysis and other mitigation actions. The standard NDSHA maps provide reliable envelope estimates of maximum seismic ground motion from a wide set of possible scenario earthquakes, including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake. In addition, the flexibility of NDSHA allows for generation of ground shaking maps at specified long-term return times, which may permit a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps in terms of average rates of exceedance for specified time windows. The comparison of NDSHA and PSHA maps, particularly for very long recurrence times, may indicate to what extent probabilistic ground shaking estimates are consistent with those from physical models of seismic waves propagation. A systematic comparison over the territory of Italy is carried out exploiting the uniqueness of the Italian earthquake catalogue, a data set covering more than a millennium (a time interval about ten times longer than that available in most of the regions worldwide) with a satisfactory completeness level for M>5, which warrants the results of analysis. By analysing in some detail seismicity in the Vrancea region, we show that well constrained macroseismic field information for individual earthquakes may provide useful information about the reliability of ground shaking estimates. Finally, in order to generalise observations, the comparative analysis is extended to further regions where both standard NDSHA and PSHA maps are available (e.g. State of Gujarat, India). The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with other national scale probabilistic maps, all obtained by PSHA, are considered for this comparative analysis.

78 FR 45941 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-30

... (hereinafter referred to as flood hazard determinations) as shown on the indicated Letter of Map Revision (LOMR... Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs), and in some cases the Flood Insurance Study (FIS) reports, currently in effect... respective Community Map Repository address listed in the table below and online through the FEMA Map Service...

Stereo-vision-based terrain mapping for off-road autonomous navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-05-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as nogo regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-01-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Toward Probabilistic Risk Analyses - Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment of Crescent City, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, F. I.; Leveque, R. J.; Hatheway, D.; Metzger, N.

2011-12-01

Risk is defined in many ways, but most are consistent with Crichton's [1999] definition based on the ''risk triangle'' concept and the explicit identification of three risk elements: ''Risk is the probability of a loss, and this depends on three elements: hazard, vulnerability, and exposure. If any of these three elements in risk increases or decreases, then the risk increases or decreases respectively." The World Meteorological Organization, for example, cites Crichton [1999] and then defines risk as [WMO, 2008] Risk = function (Hazard x Vulnerability x Exposure) while the Asian Disaster Reduction Center adopts the more general expression [ADRC, 2005] Risk = function (Hazard, Vulnerability, Exposure) In practice, probabilistic concepts are invariably invoked, and at least one of the three factors are specified as probabilistic in nature. The Vulnerability and Exposure factors are defined in multiple ways in the relevant literature; but the Hazard factor, which is the focus of our presentation, is generally understood to deal only with the physical aspects of the phenomena and, in particular, the ability of the phenomena to inflict harm [Thywissen, 2006]. A Hazard factor can be estimated by a methodology known as Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) [González, et al., 2009]. We will describe the PTHA methodology and provide an example -- the results of a previous application to Seaside, OR. We will also present preliminary results for a PTHA of Crescent City, CA -- a pilot project and coastal modeling/mapping effort funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Region IX office as part of the new California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). CCAMP and the PTHA in Crescent City are being conducted under the nationwide FEMA Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Program which focuses on providing communities with flood information and tools they can use to enhance their mitigation plans and better protect their citizens.

Arguing for a multi-hazard mapping program in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batterson, Martin; Neil, Stapleton

2010-05-01

This poster describes efforts to implement a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program, and will explore the challenges associated with this process. Newfoundland and Labrador is on the eastern edge of North America, has a large land area (405,212 km2) and a small population (510,000; 2009 estimate). The province currently has no legislative framework to control development in hazardous areas, but recent landslides in the communities of Daniel's Harbour and Trout River, both of which forced the relocation of residents, emphasize the need for action. There are two factors which confirm the need for a natural hazard mapping program: the documented history of natural disasters, and the future potential impacts of climate change. Despite being relatively far removed from the impacts of earthquake and volcanic activity, Newfoundland and Labrador has a long history of natural disasters. Rockfall, landslide, avalanche and flood events have killed at least 176 people over the past 225 years, many in their own homes. Some of the fatalities resulted from the adjacency of homes to places of employment, and of communities and roads to steep slopes. Others were likely the result of chance, and were thus unavoidable. Still others were the result of poor planning, albeit unwitting. Increasingly however, aesthetics have replaced pragmatism as a selection criterion for housing developments, with residential construction being contemplated for many coastal areas. The issue is exacerbated by the impacts of climate change, which while not a universal bane for the Province, will likely result in rising sea level and enhanced coastal erosion. Much of the Province's coastline is receding at up to 30 cm (and locally higher) per year. Sea level is anticipated to rise by 70cm to over 100 cm by 2099, based on IPCC predictions, plus the effects of enhanced ice sheet melting, plus (or minus) continued local isostatic adjustment. The history of geological disasters, coupled with pressures on development and the threat of rising sea levels, has prompted the initiation of a Provincial multi-hazard mapping program. Initial focus is on the north-east Avalon Peninsula, where the majority of the Province's residents are located and where most development is occurring. A regional land-use plan is being initiated for this area. While there are few, if any, standard protocols in literature for determining variables/data to be included in a hazard assessment, three important factors require consideration: the characteristics and detail of the study area, the availability of digital datasets, and the scale of data. For the north-east Avalon Peninsula hazard mapping will combine slope models generated from DEMs, bedrock/surficial geology mapping at 1:50,000 scale, Provincial flood risk mapping and municipal digital topographic data at 1:2500 scale, and historical research and field work, to produce a ‘traffic-light' designation of potentially hazardous areas. Data will be presented in an ArcGIS environment. Sea-level rise scenarios will also be incorporated into the mapping. Following the experience of flood risk mapping in the Province, which identified hazardous areas for development which nevertheless continued to experience urban expansion, subsequently ensuring the utilization of these maps in future land-use planning will likely require entrenchment in legislation.

Potential flood hazard assessment by integration of ALOS PALSAR and ASTER GDEM: a case study for the Hoa Chau commune, Hoa Vang district, in central Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huong, Do Thi Viet; Nagasawa, Ryota

2014-01-01

The potential flood hazard was assessed for the Hoa Chau commune in central Vietnam in order to identify the high flood hazard zones for the decision makers who will execute future rural planning. A new approach for deriving the potential flood hazard based on integration of inundation and flow direction maps is described. Areas inundated in the historical flood event of 2007 were extracted from Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) phased array L-band synthetic aperture data radar (PALSAR) images, while flow direction characteristics were derived from the ASTER GDEM to extract the depressed surfaces. Past flood experience and the flow direction were then integrated to analyze and rank the potential flood hazard zones. The land use/cover map extracted from LANDSAT TM and flood depth point records from field surveys were utilized to check the possibility of susceptible inundated areas, extracting data from ALOS PALSAR and ranking the potential flood hazard. The estimation of potential flood hazard areas revealed that 17.43% and 17.36% of Hoa Chau had high and medium potential flood hazards, respectively. The flow direction and ALOS PALSAR data were effectively integrated for determining the potential flood hazard when hydrological and meteorological data were inadequate and remote sensing images taken during flood times were not available or were insufficient.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

2018-05-01

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

Exposure and vulnerability assessment of buildings extracted from lidar derived datasets in Bucao River floodplains, Zambales, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paz-Alberto, Annie Melinda; Ramos, Gloria N.; Espiritu, Jo Adrianne; Mapanao, Kathrina M.; Lao, Ranilo B.

2017-09-01

The Philippines has a geographic and geological setting that make it prone to various hazards including weather and climate-related. It is usually strongly affected by monsoon and typhoon occurrences that cause floods due to torrential rains that causes great risks in man's life and properties, resulting in a significant national loss. Strategies for disaster prevention to protect human lives, properties and social infrastructure is therefore necessary. Different important parameters in disaster risk management such as earth observations, Light Detection and Ranging and Geographic Information System were integrated and utilized in this study. This study dealt with mapping and assessment of buildings that might possibly be exposed and vulnerable to flooding based on the simulated flood maps at different rainfall scenarios in Bucao River Basin. The assessment was done through GIS overlay analysis of the CLSU PHIL-LiDAR 1 Project outputs, the 3D building GIS database and flood hazard maps. Results of this study were series of maps with statistics at different rainfall scenarios. From 23,097 building features extracted, 10,118 buildings, 4,258 buildings and 7,433 buildings were the identified highest number of buildings exposed to flooding and a total of 2,427 buildings, 3,914 buildings and 7,204 buildings from the exposed were identified that had high vulnerabilities in terms of height at low, medium and high hazards of 100 year return period, respectively. Through these maps, it is easier to disseminate information that is more realistic to the residents about the hazardous areas and to help them act on warning and evacuating measures.

St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project - A Progress Report-November 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karadeniz, D.; Rogers, J.D.; Williams, R.A.; Cramer, C.H.; Bauer, R.A.; Hoffman, D.; Chung, J.; Hempen, G.L.; Steckel, P.H.; Boyd, O.L.; Watkins, C.M.; McCallister, N.S.; Schweig, E.

2009-01-01

St. Louis has experienced minor earthquake damage at least 12 times in the past 200 years. Because of this history and its proximity to known active earthquake zones, the St. Louis Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (SLAEHMP) is producing digital maps that show variability of earthquake hazards, including liquefaction and ground shaking, in the St. Louis area. The maps will be available free via the internet. Although not site specific enough to indicate the hazard at a house-by-house resolution, they can be customized by the user to show specific areas of interest, such as neighborhoods or transportation routes. Earthquakes currently cannot be predicted, but scientists can estimate how strongly the ground is likely to shake as the result of an earthquake. Earthquake hazard maps provide one way of conveying such estimates. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which produces earthquake hazard maps for the Nation, is working with local partners to develop detailed maps for urban areas vulnerable to strong ground shaking. These partners, which along with the USGS comprise the SLAEHMP, include the Missouri University of Science and Technology-Rolla (Missouri S&T), Missouri Department of Natural Resources (MDNR), Illinois State Geological Survey (ISGS), Saint Louis University, Missouri State Emergency Management Agency, and URS Corporation. Preliminary hazard maps covering a test portion of the 29-quadrangle St. Louis study area have been produced and are currently being evaluated by the SLAEHMP. A USGS Fact Sheet summarizing this project was produced and almost 1000 copies have been distributed at several public outreach meetings and field trips that have featured the SLAEHMP (Williams and others, 2007). In addition, a USGS website focusing on the SLAEHMP, which provides links to project results and relevant earthquake hazard information, can be found at: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/ceus/urban_map/st_louis/index.php. This progress report summarizes the methodology and data used to generate these preliminary maps. For more details about many of the topics in this summary the reader is referred to the Karadeniz (2007) and Chung (2007) Ph.D. theses.

Assessment of Coastal Communities' Vulnerability to Hurricane Surge under Climate Change via Probabilistic Map - A Case Study of the Southwest Coast of Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Shen, S.

2014-12-01

The US coastline, over the past few years, has been overwhelmed by major storms including Hurricane Katrina (2005), Ike (2008), Irene (2011), and Sandy (2012). Supported by a growing and extensive body of evidence, a majority of research agrees hurricane activities have been enhanced due to climate change. However, the precise prediction of hurricane induced inundation remains a challenge. This study proposed a probabilistic inundation map based on a Statistically Modeled Storm Database (SMSD) to assess the probabilistic coastal inundation risk of Southwest Florida for near-future (20 years) scenario considering climate change. This map was processed through a Joint Probability Method with Optimal-Sampling (JPM-OS), developed by Condon and Sheng in 2012, and accompanied by a high resolution storm surge modeling system CH3D-SSMS. The probabilistic inundation map shows a 25.5-31.2% increase in spatially averaged inundation height compared to an inundation map of present-day scenario. To estimate climate change impacts on coastal communities, socioeconomic analyses were conducted using both the SMSD based probabilistic inundation map and the present-day inundation map. Combined with 2010 census data and 2012 parcel data from Florida Geographic Data Library, the differences of economic loss between the near-future and present day scenarios were used to generate an economic exposure map at census block group level to reflect coastal communities' exposure to climate change. The results show that climate change induced inundation increase has significant economic impacts. Moreover, the impacts are not equally distributed among different social groups considering their social vulnerability to hazards. Social vulnerability index at census block group level were obtained from Hazards and Vulnerability Research Institute. The demographic and economic variables in the index represent a community's adaptability to hazards. Local Moran's I was calculated to identify the clusters of highly exposed and vulnerable communities. The economic-exposure cluster map was overlapped with social-vulnerability cluster map to identify communities with low adaptive capability but high exposure. The result provides decision makers an intuitive tool to identify most susceptible communities for adaptation.

Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Ullah, Shahid; Parolai, Stefano; Walker, Richard; Pittore, Massimiliano; Free, Matthew; Fourniadis, Yannis; Villiani, Manuela; Sousa, Luis; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

As part of a seismic risk study sponsored by the World Bank, a revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic has been produced, using the OpenQuake-engine developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). In this project, an earthquake catalogue spanning a period from 250 BCE to 2014 was compiled and processed through spatial and temporal declustering tools. The territory of the Kyrgyz Republic was divided into 31 area sources defined based on local seismicity, including a total area covering 200 km from the border. The results are presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). In addition, macroseismic intensity estimates, making use of recent intensity prediction equations, were also provided, given that this measure is still widely used in Central Asia. In order to accommodate the associated epistemic uncertainty, three ground motion prediction equations were used in a logic tree structure. A set of representative earthquake scenarios were further identified based on historical data and the nature of the considered faults. The resulting hazard map, as expected, follows the country's seismicity, with the highest levels of hazard in the northeast, south and southwest of the country, with an elevated part around the centre. When considering PGA, the hazard is slightly greater for major urban centres than in previous works (e.g., Abdrakhmatov et al., 2003), although the macroseismic intensity estimates are less than previous studies, e.g., Ulomov (1999). For the scenario assessments, the examples that most affect the urban centres assessed are the Issyk Ata fault (in particular for Bishkek), the Chilik and Kemin faults (in particular Balykchy and Karakol), the Ferghana Valley fault system (in particular Osh, Jalah-Abad and Uzgen), the Oinik Djar fault (Naryn) and the central and western Talas-Ferghanafaukt (Talas). Finally, while site effects (in particular, those dependent on the upper-most geological structure) have an obvious effect on the final hazard level, this is still not fully accounted for, even if a nation-wide first order Vs30 model (i.e., from the USGS) is available. Abdrakhmatov, K., Havenith, H.-B., Delvaux, D., Jongsmans, D. and Trefois, P. (2003) Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia), Journal of Seismology, 7, 203-220. Ulomov, V.I., The GSHAP Region 7 working group (1999) Seismic hazard of Northern Eurasia, Annali di Geofisica, 42, 1012-1038.

Seismic hazard in the Istanbul metropolitan area: A preliminary re-evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, E.; Gulkan, Polat; Ozturk, N.Y.; Celebi, M.

2008-01-01

In 1999, two destructive earthquakes (M7.4 Kocaeli and M7.2 Duzce) occurred in the north west of Turkey and resulted in major stress-drops on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where it continues under the Marmara Sea. These undersea fault segments were recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped to reshape the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on collected new information, seismic hazard of the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul Metropolitan Area and its vicinity, were re-examined using a probabilistic approach. Two seismic source and alternate recurrence models combined with various indigenous and foreign attenuation relationships were adapted within a logic tree formulation to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. The hazard maps show the peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s. These acceleration levels were computed for 2 and 10 % probabilities of transcendence in 50 years.

Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apel, Heiko; Martínez Trepat, Oriol; Nghia Hung, Nguyen; Thi Chinh, Do; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen

2016-04-01

Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, because locations next to rivers are preferred settlement areas and the predominantly sealed urban surface prevents infiltration and facilitates surface inundation. The latter problem is enhanced in cities with insufficient or non-existent sewer systems. While there are a number of approaches to analyse either a fluvial or pluvial flood hazard, studies of a combined fluvial and pluvial flood hazard are hardly available. Thus this study aims to analyse a fluvial and a pluvial flood hazard individually, but also to develop a method for the analysis of a combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazard. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed taking Can Tho city, the largest city in the Vietnamese part of the Mekong Delta, as an example. In this tropical environment the annual monsoon triggered floods of the Mekong River, which can coincide with heavy local convective precipitation events, causing both fluvial and pluvial flooding at the same time. The fluvial flood hazard was estimated with a copula-based bivariate extreme value statistic for the gauge Kratie at the upper boundary of the Mekong Delta and a large-scale hydrodynamic model of the Mekong Delta. This provided the boundaries for 2-dimensional hydrodynamic inundation simulation for Can Tho city. The pluvial hazard was estimated by a peak-over-threshold frequency estimation based on local rain gauge data and a stochastic rainstorm generator. Inundation for all flood scenarios was simulated by a 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model implemented on a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for time-efficient flood propagation modelling. The combined fluvial-pluvial flood scenarios were derived by adding rainstorms to the fluvial flood events during the highest fluvial water levels. The probabilities of occurrence of the combined events were determined assuming independence of the two flood types and taking the seasonality and probability of coincidence into account. All hazards - fluvial, pluvial and combined - were accompanied by an uncertainty estimation taking into account the natural variability of the flood events. This resulted in probabilistic flood hazard maps showing the maximum inundation depths for a selected set of probabilities of occurrence, with maps showing the expectation (median) and the uncertainty by percentile maps. The results are critically discussed and their usage in flood risk management are outlined.

Landslide hazard in Bukavu (DR Congo): a geomorphological assessment in a data-poor context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewitte, Olivier; Mugaruka Bibentyo, Toussaint; Kulimushi Matabaro, Sylvain; Balegamire, Clarisse; Basimike, Joseph; Delvaux, Damien; Dille, Antoine; Ganza Bamulezi, Gloire; Jacobs, Liesbet; Michellier, Caroline; Monsieurs, Elise; Mugisho Birhenjira, Espoir; Nshokano, Jean-Robert; Nzolang, Charles; Kervyn, François

2017-04-01

Many cities in the Global South are known for facing an important increase in their population size. Many of them are then struggling with the sprawl of new settlements and very often urban planning and sustainable management policies are limited, if not non-existent. When those cities are set in landslide-prone environments, this situation is even more problematic. Despite these environmental constrains, landslide hazard assessments relevant for landscape planning remain rare. The objective of this research is to assess the landslide hazard in Bukavu, a city in DR Congo that is facing such a situation. We used a geomorphological approach (adapted from Cardinali et al., 2002) taking into account the data-poor context and the impact of anthropogenic activities. First, we built a multi-temporal historical inventory for a period of 60 years. A total of 151 landslides were mapped (largest landslide 1.5 km2). Their cumulative areas cover 29% of the urban territory and several types of processes are identified. Changes in the distribution and pattern of landslides allowed then to infer the possible evolution of the slopes, the most probable type of failures, and their expected frequency of occurrence and intensity. Despite this comprehensive inventory, hazard linked to the occurrence of new large deep-seated slides cannot be assessed due a scarcity of reliable data on the environmental factors controlling their occurrence. In addition, age estimation of the occurrence of some of the largest landslides refers to periods at the beginning of the Holocene where climatic and seismic conditions were probably different. Therefore, based on the inventory, we propose four hazard scenarios that coincide with today's environment. Hazard assessment was done for (1) reactivation of deep-seated slides, (2) occurrence of new small shallow slides, (3) rock falls, and (4) movements within existing landslides. Based on these assessments, we produced four hazard maps that indicate the zones where landslides may occur as well as the runout zones. Rock fall hazard concerns a very small portion of the urban territory. The other three hazards are much more widely spread. For these three scenarios, the hazard is the highest in areas that cover about 5 to 10% of the urban territory. The maps are presented in four classes. They present an information that can be easily used for further risk analysis and/or urban planning purposes.

Challenges in assessing seismic hazard in intraplate Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, Edward; Stein, Seth; Liu, Mian; Camelbeeck, Thierry; Merino, Miguel; Landgraf, Angela; Hintersberger, Esther; Kübler, Simon

2016-04-01

Intraplate seismicity is often characterized by episodic, clustered and migrating earth- quakes and extended after-shock sequences. Can these observations - primarily from North America, China and Australia - usefully be applied to seismic hazard assessment for intraplate Europe? Existing assessments are based on instrumental and historical seismicity of the past c. 1000 years, as well as some data for active faults. This time span probably fails to capture typical large-event recurrence intervals of the order of tens of thousands of years. Palaeoseismology helps to lengthen the observation window, but preferentially produces data in regions suspected to be seismically active. Thus the expected maximum magnitudes of future earthquakes are fairly uncertain, possibly underestimated, and earthquakes are likely to occur in unexpected locations. These issues particularly arise in considering the hazards posed by low-probability events to both heavily populated areas and critical facilities. For example, are the variations in seismicity (and thus assumed seismic hazard) along the Rhine Graben a result of short sampling or are they real? In addition to a better assessment of hazards with new data and models, it is important to recognize and communicate uncertainties in hazard estimates. The more users know about how much confidence to place in hazard maps, the more effectively the maps can be used.

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2001-01-01

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Development of an expert analysis tool based on an interactive subsidence hazard map for urban land use in the city of Celaya, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alloy, A.; Gonzalez Dominguez, F.; Nila Fonseca, A. L.; Ruangsirikulchai, A.; Gentle, J. N., Jr.; Cabral, E.; Pierce, S. A.

2016-12-01

Land Subsidence as a result of groundwater extraction in central Mexico's larger urban centers initiated in the 80's as a result of population and economic growth. The city of Celaya has undergone subsidence for a few decades and a consequence is the development of an active normal fault system that affects its urban infrastructure and residential areas. To facilitate its analysis and a land use decision-making process we created an online interactive map enabling users to easily obtain information associated with land subsidence. Geological and socioeconomic data of the city was collected, including fault location, population data, and other important infrastructure and structural data has been obtained from fieldwork as part of a study abroad interchange undergraduate course. The subsidence and associated faulting hazard map was created using an InSAR derived subsidence velocity map and population data from INEGI to identify hazard zones using a subsidence gradient spatial analysis approach based on a subsidence gradient and population risk matrix. This interactive map provides a simple perspective of different vulnerable urban elements. As an accessible visualization tool, it will enhance communication between scientific and socio-economic disciplines. Our project also lays the groundwork for a future expert analysis system with an open source and easily accessible Python coded, SQLite database driven website which archives fault and subsidence data along with visual damage documentation to civil structures. This database takes field notes and provides an entry form for uniform datasets, which are used to generate a JSON. Such a database is useful because it allows geoscientists to have a centralized repository and access to their observations over time. Because of the widespread presence of the subsidence phenomena throughout cities in central Mexico, the spatial analysis has been automated using the open source software R. Raster, rgeos, shapefiles, and rgdal libraries have been used to develop the script which permits to obtain the raster maps of horizontal gradient and population density. An advantage is that this analysis can be automated for periodic updates or repurposed for similar analysis in other cities, providing an easily accessible tool for land subsidence hazard assessments.

Intensity Based Seismic Hazard Map of Republic of Macedonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dojcinovski, Dragi; Dimiskovska, Biserka; Stojmanovska, Marta

2016-04-01

The territory of the Republic of Macedonia and the border terrains are among the most seismically active parts of the Balkan Peninsula belonging to the Mediterranean-Trans-Asian seismic belt. The seismological data on the R. Macedonia from the past 16 centuries point to occurrence of very strong catastrophic earthquakes. The hypocenters of the occurred earthquakes are located above the Mohorovicic discontinuity, most frequently, at a depth of 10-20 km. Accurate short -term prognosis of earthquake occurrence, i.e., simultaneous prognosis of time, place and intensity of their occurrence is still not possible. The present methods of seismic zoning have advanced to such an extent that it is with a great probability that they enable efficient protection against earthquake effects. The seismic hazard maps of the Republic of Macedonia are the result of analysis and synthesis of data from seismological, seismotectonic and other corresponding investigations necessary for definition of the expected level of seismic hazard for certain time periods. These should be amended, from time to time, with new data and scientific knowledge. The elaboration of this map does not completely solve all issues related to earthquakes, but it provides basic empirical data necessary for updating the existing regulations for construction of engineering structures in seismically active areas regulated by legal regulations and technical norms whose constituent part is the seismic hazard map. The map has been elaborated based on complex seismological and geophysical investigations of the considered area and synthesis of the results from these investigations. There were two phases of elaboration of the map. In the first phase, the map of focal zones characterized by maximum magnitudes of possible earthquakes has been elaborated. In the second phase, the intensities of expected earthquakes have been computed according to the MCS scale. The map is prognostic, i.e., it provides assessment of the probability for occurrence of future earthquakes with a defined area distribution of their seismic intensity, depending on the natural characteristics of the terrain. The period of 10.000 years represents the greatest expected seismic threat for the considered area. From the aspect of low-cost construction, it is also necessary to know the seismicity in shorter time periods, as well. Therefore, maps for return time periods of 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000 years have also been elaborated. The maps show a probability of 63% for occurrence of expected earthquakes with maximum intensities expressed on the MCS scale. The map has been elaborated to the scale of 1: 1.000.000, while the obtained isolines of seismic intensity are drawn with an error of  5 km. The seismic hazard map of R. Macedonia is used for: • The needs of the Rulebook on Technical Norms on Construction of Structures in Seismic Areas and for the needs of physical and urban planning and design. • While defining the seismic design parameters for construction of structures in zones with intensity of I  VII degrees MSK, investigations should be done for detailed seismic zoning and microzoning of the terrain of these zones in compliance with the technical regulations for construction in seismically prone areas. • The areas on the map indicated by intensity X MCS are not regulated by the valid regulations. Therefore, in practice, these should be treated as such in which it is not possible to construct any structures without previous surveys. • Revision of this map is done at a five year period, i.e., after each occurred earthquake whose parameters are such that require modifications and amendments of the map.

A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

2014-05-01

This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

EnviroAtlas - Metrics for Austin, TX

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This EnviroAtlas web service supports research and online mapping activities related to EnviroAtlas (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/EnviroAtlas). The layers in this web service depict ecosystem services at the census block group level for the community of Austin, Texas. These layers illustrate the ecosystems and natural resources that are associated with clean air (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_CleanAir/MapServer); clean and plentiful water (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_CleanPlentifulWater/MapServer); natural hazard mitigation (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_NaturalHazardMitigation/MapServer); climate stabilization (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_ClimateStabilization/MapServer); food, fuel, and materials (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_FoodFuelMaterials/MapServer); recreation, culture, and aesthetics (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_RecreationCultureAesthetics/MapServer); and biodiversity conservation (https://enviroatlas.epa.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Communities/ESC_ATX_BiodiversityConservation/MapServer), and factors that place stress on those resources. EnviroAtlas allows the user to interact with a web-based, easy-to-use, mapping application to view and analyze multiple ecosystem services for the conterminous United States as well as de

Comparison of Fuzzy-Based Models in Landslide Hazard Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mijani, N.; Neysani Samani, N.

2017-09-01

Landslide is one of the main geomorphic processes which effects on the development of prospect in mountainous areas and causes disastrous accidents. Landslide is an event which has different uncertain criteria such as altitude, slope, aspect, land use, vegetation density, precipitation, distance from the river and distance from the road network. This research aims to compare and evaluate different fuzzy-based models including Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (Fuzzy-AHP), Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR. The main contribution of this paper reveals to the comprehensive criteria causing landslide hazard considering their uncertainties and comparison of different fuzzy-based models. The quantify of evaluation process are calculated by Density Ratio (DR) and Quality Sum (QS). The proposed methodology implemented in Sari, one of the city of Iran which has faced multiple landslide accidents in recent years due to the particular environmental conditions. The achieved results of accuracy assessment based on the quantifier strated that Fuzzy-AHP model has higher accuracy compared to other two models in landslide hazard zonation. Accuracy of zoning obtained from Fuzzy-AHP model is respectively 0.92 and 0.45 based on method Precision (P) and QS indicators. Based on obtained landslide hazard maps, Fuzzy-AHP, Fuzzy Gamma and Fuzzy-OR respectively cover 13, 26 and 35 percent of the study area with a very high risk level. Based on these findings, fuzzy-AHP model has been selected as the most appropriate method of zoning landslide in the city of Sari and the Fuzzy-gamma method with a minor difference is in the second order.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

2015-04-01

The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases towards the northeast across the Reverse Faults Province and up to Yucatan Platform, where the lowest values are reached. We also produced uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the three main cities of Chiapas. Tapachula city presents the highest spectral accelerations, while Tuxtla Gutierrez and San Cristobal de las Casas cities show similar values. We conclude that seismic hazard in Chiapas is chiefly controlled by the subduction of the Cocos beneath Northamerica and Caribe tectonic plates, that makes the coastal areas the most hazardous. Additionally, the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zones are also important, increasing the hazard particularly in southeastern Chiapas.

Seismic Hazard Assessment for a Characteristic Earthquake Scenario: Probabilistic-Deterministic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

mouloud, Hamidatou

2016-04-01

The objective of this paper is to analyze the seismic activity and the statistical treatment of seismicity catalog the Constantine region between 1357 and 2014 with 7007 seismic event. Our research is a contribution to improving the seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazard in the North-East Algeria. In the present study, Earthquake hazard maps for the Constantine region are calculated. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is classically performed through the Cornell approach by using a uniform earthquake distribution over the source area and a given magnitude range. This study aims at extending the PSHA approach to the case of a characteristic earthquake scenario associated with an active fault. The approach integrates PSHA with a high-frequency deterministic technique for the prediction of peak and spectral ground motion parameters in a characteristic earthquake. The method is based on the site-dependent evaluation of the probability of exceedance for the chosen strong-motion parameter. We proposed five sismotectonique zones. Four steps are necessary: (i) identification of potential sources of future earthquakes, (ii) assessment of their geological, geophysical and geometric, (iii) identification of the attenuation pattern of seismic motion, (iv) calculation of the hazard at a site and finally (v) hazard mapping for a region. In this study, the procedure of the earthquake hazard evaluation recently developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1992) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in the northern part of Algeria.

Hazards on Hazards, Ensuring Spacecraft Safety While Sampling Asteroid Surface Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, C. A.; DellaGiustina, D. N.

2016-12-01

The near-Earth object Bennu is a carbonaceous asteroid that is a remnant from the earliest stages of the solar-system formation. It is also a potentially hazardous asteroid with a relatively high probability of impacting Earth late in the 22nd century. While the primary focus of the NASA funded OSIRIS-REx mission is the return of pristine organic material from the asteroid's surface, information about Bennu's physical and chemical properties gleaned throughout operations will be critical for a possible future impact mitigation mission. In order to ensure a regolith sample can be successfully acquired, the sample site and surrounding area must be thoroughly assessed for any potential hazards to the spacecraft. The OSIRIS-REx Image Processing Working Group has been tasked with generating global and site-specific hazard maps using mosaics and a trio of fea­­­ture identification techniques. These techniques include expert-lead manual classification, internet-based amateur classification using the citizen science platform CosmoQuest, and automated classification using machine learning and computer vision tools. Because proximity operations around Bennu do not begin until the end of 2018, we have an opportunity to test t­­­he performance of our software on analogue surfaces of other asteroids from previous NASA and other space agencies missions. The entire pipeline from image processing and mosaicking to hazard identification, analysis and mapping will be performed on asteroids of varying size, shape and surface morphology. As a result, upon arrival at Bennu, we will have the software and processes in place to quickly and confidently produce the hazard maps needed to ensure the success of our mission.

California Fault Parameters for the National Seismic Hazard Maps and Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wills, Chris J.; Weldon, Ray J.; Bryant, W.A.

2008-01-01

This report describes development of fault parameters for the 2007 update of the National Seismic Hazard Maps and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP, 2007). These reference parameters are contained within a database intended to be a source of values for use by scientists interested in producing either seismic hazard or deformation models to better understand the current seismic hazards in California. These parameters include descriptions of the geometry and rates of movements of faults throughout the state. These values are intended to provide a starting point for development of more sophisticated deformation models which include known rates of movement on faults as well as geodetic measurements of crustal movement and the rates of movements of the tectonic plates. The values will be used in developing the next generation of the time-independent National Seismic Hazard Maps, and the time-dependant seismic hazard calculations being developed for the WGCEP. Due to the multiple uses of this information, development of these parameters has been coordinated between USGS, CGS and SCEC. SCEC provided the database development and editing tools, in consultation with USGS, Golden. This database has been implemented in Oracle and supports electronic access (e.g., for on-the-fly access). A GUI-based application has also been developed to aid in populating the database. Both the continually updated 'living' version of this database, as well as any locked-down official releases (e.g., used in a published model for calculating earthquake probabilities or seismic shaking hazards) are part of the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/qfaults/ . CGS has been primarily responsible for updating and editing of the fault parameters, with extensive input from USGS and SCEC scientists.

Harnessing Satellite Imageries in Feature Extraction Using Google Earth Pro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Sim Joseph; Milano, Alan

2016-07-01

Climate change has been a long-time concern worldwide. Impending flooding, for one, is among its unwanted consequences. The Phil-LiDAR 1 project of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST), Republic of the Philippines, has developed an early warning system in regards to flood hazards. The project utilizes the use of remote sensing technologies in determining the lives in probable dire danger by mapping and attributing building features using LiDAR dataset and satellite imageries. A free mapping software named Google Earth Pro (GEP) is used to load these satellite imageries as base maps. Geotagging of building features has been done so far with the use of handheld Global Positioning System (GPS). Alternatively, mapping and attribution of building features using GEP saves a substantial amount of resources such as manpower, time and budget. Accuracy-wise, geotagging by GEP is dependent on either the satellite imageries or orthophotograph images of half-meter resolution obtained during LiDAR acquisition and not on the GPS of three-meter accuracy. The attributed building features are overlain to the flood hazard map of Phil-LiDAR 1 in order to determine the exposed population. The building features as obtained from satellite imageries may not only be used in flood exposure assessment but may also be used in assessing other hazards and a number of other uses. Several other features may also be extracted from the satellite imageries.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2013-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

2014-01-01

Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP). FALL3D model input eruptive parameters are constrained through an inversion method carried out with the semi-analytical HAZMAP model and are varied by sampling them using probability density functions. We analyze the influence of seasonal variations on ash dispersal and estimate the average persistence of critical ash concentrations at relevant locations and airports. This study assesses the impact that a Plinian eruption similar to the Ochre Pumice eruption would have on the main airports of Mexico and adjacent areas. The hazard maps presented here can support long-term planning that would help minimize the impacts of such an eruption on civil aviation.

Evaluation of potential surface rupture and review of current seismic hazards program at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-09

This report summarizes the authors review and evaluation of the existing seismic hazards program at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The report recommends that the original program be augmented with a probabilistic analysis of seismic hazards involving assignment of weighted probabilities of occurrence to all potential sources. This approach yields a more realistic evaluation of the likelihood of large earthquake occurrence particularly in regions where seismic sources may have recurrent intervals of several thousand years or more. The report reviews the locations and geomorphic expressions of identified fault lines along with the known displacements of these faults and last knowmore » occurrence of seismic activity. Faults are mapped and categorized into by their potential for actual movement. Based on geologic site characterization, recommendations are made for increased seismic monitoring; age-dating studies of faults and geomorphic features; increased use of remote sensing and aerial photography for surface mapping of faults; the development of a landslide susceptibility map; and to develop seismic design standards for all existing and proposed facilities at LANL.« less

Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance Doman

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Edward A.; Carson, John M., III

2016-01-01

The Precision Landing and Hazard Avoidance (PL&HA) domain addresses the development, integration, testing, and spaceflight infusion of sensing, processing, and GN&C functions critical to the success and safety of future human and robotic exploration missions. PL&HA sensors also have applications to other mission events, such as rendezvous and docking. Autonomous PL&HA builds upon the core GN&C capabilities developed to enable soft, controlled landings on the Moon, Mars, and other solar system bodies. Through the addition of a Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) function, precision landing within tens of meters of a map-based target is possible. The addition of a 3-D terrain mapping lidar sensor improves the probability of a safe landing via autonomous, real-time Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA). PL&HA significantly improves the probability of mission success and enhances access to sites of scientific interest located in challenging terrain. PL&HA can also utilize external navigation aids, such as navigation satellites and surface beacons. Advanced Lidar Sensors High precision ranging, velocimetry, and 3-D terrain mapping Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) TRN compares onboard reconnaissance data with real-time terrain imaging data to update the S/C position estimate Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) Generates a high-resolution, 3-D terrain map in real-time during the approach trajectory to identify safe landing targets Inertial Navigation During Terminal Descent High precision surface relative sensors enable accurate inertial navigation during terminal descent and a tightly controlled touchdown within meters of the selected safe landing target.

New Science Applications Within the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.; Forson, C. K.; Horrillo, J. J.; Nicolsky, D.

2017-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is a collaborative State and Federal program which supports consistent and cost effective tsunami preparedness and mitigation activities at a community level. The NTHMP is developing a new five-year Strategic Plan based on the 2017 Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act as well as recommendations the 2017 NTHMP External Review Panel. Many NTHMP activities are based on the best available scientific methods through the NTHMP Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS). The primary activities for the MMS member States are to characterize significant tsunami sources, numerically model those sources, and create tsunami inundation maps for evacuation planning. This work remains a focus for many unmapped coastlines. With the lessons learned from the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Japan tsunamis, where both immediate risks and long-term recovery issues where recognized, the NTHMP MMS is expanding efforts into other areas that address community resilience. Tsunami evacuation modeling based on both pedestrian and vehicular modes of transportation are being developed by NTHMP States. Products include tools for the public to create personal evacuation maps. New tsunami response planning tools are being developed for both maritime and coastal communities. Maritime planning includes tsunami current-hazard maps for in-harbor and offshore response activities. Multi-tiered tsunami evacuation plans are being developed in some states to address local- versus distant-source tsunamis, as well as real-time evacuation plans, or "playbooks," for distant-source tsunamis forecasted to be less than the worst-case flood event. Products to assist community mitigation and recovery are being developed at a State level. Harbor Improvement Reports, which evaluate the impacts of currents, sediment, and debris on harbor infrastructure, include direct mitigation activities for Local Hazard Mitigation Plans. Building code updates in the five Pacific states will include new sections on tsunami load analysis of structures, and require Tsunami Design Zones based on probabilistic analyses. Guidance for community recovery planning has also been initiated. These new projects are being piloted by some States and will help create guidance for other States in the future.

Key science issues in the central and eastern United States for the next version of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, M.D.; Mueller, C.S.

2011-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps are updated about every six years by incorporating newly vetted science on earthquakes and ground motions. The 2008 hazard maps for the central and eastern United States region (CEUS) were updated by using revised New Madrid and Charleston source models, an updated seismicity catalog and an estimate of magnitude uncertainties, a distribution of maximum magnitudes, and several new ground-motion prediction equations. The new models resulted in significant ground-motion changes at 5 Hz and 1 Hz spectral acceleration with 5% damping compared to the 2002 version of the hazard maps. The 2008 maps have now been incorporated into the 2009 NEHRP Recommended Provisions, the 2010 ASCE-7 Standard, and the 2012 International Building Code. The USGS is now planning the next update of the seismic hazard maps, which will be provided to the code committees in December 2013. Science issues that will be considered for introduction into the CEUS maps include: 1) updated recurrence models for New Madrid sources, including new geodetic models and magnitude estimates; 2) new earthquake sources and techniques considered in the 2010 model developed by the nuclear industry; 3) new NGA-East ground-motion models (currently under development); and 4) updated earthquake catalogs. We will hold a regional workshop in late 2011 or early 2012 to discuss these and other issues that will affect the seismic hazard evaluation in the CEUS.

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

A Gis Model Application Supporting The Analysis of The Seismic Hazard For The Urban Area of Catania (italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grasso, S.; Maugeri, M.

After the Summit held in Washington on August 20-22 2001 to plan the first World Conference on the mitigation of Natural Hazards, a Group for the analysis of Natural Hazards within the Mediterranean area has been formed. The Group has so far determined the following hazards: (1) Seismic hazard (hazard for historical buildings included); (2) Hazard linked to the quantity and quality of water; (3) Landslide hazard; (4) Volcanic hazard. The analysis of such hazards implies the creation and the management of data banks, which can only be used if the data are properly geo-settled to allow a crossed use of them. The obtained results must be therefore represented on geo-settled maps. The present study is part of a research programme, namely "Detailed Scenarios and Actions for Seismic Prevention of Damage in the Urban Area of Catania", financed by the National Department for the Civil Protection and the National Research Council-National Group for the Defence Against Earthquakes (CNR-GNDT). Nowadays the south-eastern area of Sicily, called the "Iblea" seismic area of Sicily, is considered as one of the most intense seismic zones in Italy, based on the past and current seismic history and on the typology of civil buildings. Safety against earthquake hazards has two as pects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena such as amplification, land sliding and soil liquefaction. So the correct evaluation of seismic hazard is highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. The effect of local geotechnical conditions on damages suffered by buildings under seismic conditions has been widely recognized, as it is demonstrated by the Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards edited by the International Society for Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering (TC4, 1999). The evaluation of local amplification effects may be carried out by means of either rigorous complex methods of analysis or qualitative procedures. A semi quantitative procedure based on the definition of the geotechnical hazard index has been applied for the zonation of the seismic geotechnical hazard of the city of Catania. In particular this procedure has been applied to define the influence of geotechnical properties of soil in a central area of the city of Catania, where some historical buildings of great importance are sited. It was also performed an investigation based on the inspection of more than one hundred historical ecclesiastical buildings of great importance, located in the city. Then, in order to identify the amplification effects due to the site conditions, a geotechnical survey form was prepared, to allow a semi quantitative evaluation of the seismic geotechnical hazard for all these historical buildings. In addition, to evaluate the foundation soil time -history response, a 1-D dynamic soil model was employed for all these buildings, considering the non linearity of soil behaviour. Using a GIS, a map of the seismic geotechnical hazard, of the liquefaction hazard and a preliminary map of the seismic hazard for the city of Catania have been obtained. From the analysis of obtained results it may be noticed that high hazard zones are mainly clayey sites

A Software Tool for Quantitative Seismicity Analysis - ZMAP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiemer, S.; Gerstenberger, M.

2001-12-01

Earthquake catalogs are probably the most basic product of seismology, and remain arguably the most useful for tectonic studies. Modern seismograph networks can locate up to 100,000 earthquakes annually, providing a continuous and sometime overwhelming stream of data. ZMAP is a set of tools driven by a graphical user interface (GUI), designed to help seismologists analyze catalog data. ZMAP is primarily a research tool suited to the evaluation of catalog quality and to addressing specific hypotheses; however, it can also be useful in routine network operations. Examples of ZMAP features include catalog quality assessment (artifacts, completeness, explosion contamination), interactive data exploration, mapping transients in seismicity (rate changes, b-values, p-values), fractal dimension analysis and stress tensor inversions. Roughly 100 scientists worldwide have used the software at least occasionally. About 30 peer-reviewed publications have made use of ZMAP. ZMAP code is open source, written in the commercial software language Matlab by the Mathworks, a widely used software in the natural sciences. ZMAP was first published in 1994, and has continued to grow over the past 7 years. Recently, we released ZMAP v.6. The poster will introduce the features of ZMAP. We will specifically focus on ZMAP features related to time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment. We are currently implementing a ZMAP based system that computes probabilistic hazard maps, which combine the stationary background hazard as well as aftershock and foreshock hazard into a comprehensive time dependent probabilistic hazard map. These maps will be displayed in near real time on the Internet. This poster is also intended as a forum for ZMAP users to provide feedback and discuss the future of ZMAP.

Combination of UAV and terrestrial photogrammetry to assess rapid glacier evolution and map glacier hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fugazza, Davide; Scaioni, Marco; Corti, Manuel; D'Agata, Carlo; Azzoni, Roberto Sergio; Cernuschi, Massimo; Smiraglia, Claudio; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina Adele

2018-04-01

Tourists and hikers visiting glaciers all year round face hazards such as sudden terminus collapses, typical of such a dynamically evolving environment. In this study, we analyzed the potential of different survey techniques to analyze hazards of the Forni Glacier, an important geosite located in Stelvio Park (Italian Alps). We carried out surveys in the 2016 ablation season and compared point clouds generated from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) survey, close-range photogrammetry and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). To investigate the evolution of glacier hazards and evaluate the glacier thinning rate, we also used UAV data collected in 2014 and a digital elevation model (DEM) created from an aerial photogrammetric survey of 2007. We found that the integration between terrestrial and UAV photogrammetry is ideal for mapping hazards related to the glacier collapse, while TLS is affected by occlusions and is logistically complex in glacial terrain. Photogrammetric techniques can therefore replace TLS for glacier studies and UAV-based DEMs hold potential for becoming a standard tool in the investigation of glacier thickness changes. Based on our data sets, an increase in the size of collapses was found over the study period, and the glacier thinning rates went from 4.55 ± 0.24 m a-1 between 2007 and 2014 to 5.20 ± 1.11 m a-1 between 2014 and 2016.

Landslide Hazard Assessment and Mapping in the Guil Catchment (Queyras, Southern French Alps): From Landslide Inventory to Susceptibility Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulleau, Louise; Bétard, François; Carlier, Benoît; Lissak, Candide; Fort, Monique

2016-04-01

Landslides are common natural hazards in the Southern French Alps, where they may affect human lives and cause severe damages to infrastructures. As a part of the SAMCO research project dedicated to risk evaluation in mountain areas, this study focuses on the Guil river catchment (317 km2), Queyras, to assess landslide hazard poorly studied until now. In that area, landslides are mainly occasional, low amplitude phenomena, with limited direct impacts when compared to other hazards such as floods or snow avalanches. However, when interacting with floods during extreme rainfall events, landslides may have indirect consequences of greater importance because of strong hillslope-channel connectivity along the Guil River and its tributaries (i.e. positive feedbacks). This specific morphodynamic functioning reinforces the need to have a better understanding of landslide hazards and their spatial distribution at the catchment scale to prevent local population from disasters with multi-hazard origin. The aim of this study is to produce a landslide susceptibility mapping at 1:50 000 scale as a first step towards global estimation of landslide hazard and risk. The three main methodologies used for assessing landslide susceptibility are qualitative (i.e. expert opinion), deterministic (i.e. physics-based models) and statistical methods (i.e. probabilistic models). Due to the rapid development of geographical information systems (GIS) during the last two decades, statistical methods are today widely used because they offer a greater objectivity and reproducibility at large scales. Among them, multivariate analyses are considered as the most robust techniques, especially the logistic regression method commonly used in landslide susceptibility mapping. However, this method like others is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the input data to avoid significant errors in the final results. In particular, a complete and accurate landslide inventory is required before the modelling. The methodology used in our study includes five main steps: (i) a landslide inventory was compiled through extraction of landslide occurrences in existing national databases (BDMvt, RTM), photointerpretation of aerial photographs and extensive field surveys; (ii) the main predisposing factors were identified and implemented as digital layers into a GIS together with the landslide inventory map, thus constituting the predictive variables to introduce into the model; (iii) a logistic regression model was applied to analyze the spatial and mathematical relationships between the response variable (i.e. absence/presence of landslides) and the set of predictive variables (i.e. predisposing factors), after a selection procedure based on statistical tests (χ2-test and Cramer's V coefficient); (iv) an evaluation of the model performance and quality results was conducted using a validation strategy based on ROC curve and AUC analyses; (v) a final susceptibility map in four classes was proposed using a discretization method based on success/prediction rate curves. The results of the susceptibility modelling were finally interpreted and discussed in the light of what was previously known about landslide occurrence and triggering in the study area. The major influence of the distance-to-streams variable on the model confirms the strong hillslope-channel coupling observed empirically during rainfall-induced landslide events.

RAPID-N: Assessing and mapping the risk of natural-hazard impact at industrial installations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2015-04-01

Natural hazard-triggered technological accidents (so-called Natech accidents) at hazardous installations can have major consequences due to the potential for release of hazardous materials, fires and explosions. Effective Natech risk reduction requires the identification of areas where this risk is high. However, recent studies have shown that there are hardly any methodologies and tools that would allow authorities to identify these areas. To work towards closing this gap, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre has developed the rapid Natech risk assessment and mapping framework RAPID-N. The tool, which is implemented in an online web-based environment, is unique in that it contains all functionalities required for running a full Natech risk analysis simulation (natural hazards severity estimation, equipment damage probability and severity calculation, modeling of the consequences of loss of containment scenarios) and for visualizing its results. The output of RAPID-N are risk summary reports and interactive risk maps which can be used for decision making. Currently, the tool focuses on Natech risk due to earthquakes at industrial installations. However, it will be extended to also analyse and map Natech risk due to floods in the near future. RAPID-N is available at http://rapidn.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation will discuss the results of case-study calculations performed for selected flammable and toxic substances to test the capabilities of RAPID-N both for single- and multi-site earthquake Natech risk assessment. For this purpose, an Istanbul earthquake scenario provided by the Turkish government was used. The results of the exercise show that RAPID-N is a valuable decision-support tool that assesses the Natech risk and maps the consequence end-point distances. These end-point distances are currently defined by 7 kPa overpressure for Vapour Cloud Explosions, 2nd degree burns for pool fire (which is equivalent to a heat radiation of 5 kW/m2 for 40s), or the ERPG-2 concentration for atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances).

Fifty-Year Flood-Inundation Maps for Santa Rosa de Aguan, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the coastal municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan that are prone to oceanic storm-surge flooding and wave action. The 50-year flood on the Rio Aguan (4,270 cubic meters per second), would inundate most of the area surveyed for this municipality and beyond. Therefore a detailed numerical hydraulic model was not developed for this municipality as it was for the others. The 50-year storm surge would likely produce higher water levels than the 50-year flood on the river during normal astronomical tides. The elevation of the 50-year storm surge was estimated to be 4.35 meters above normal sea level, based on hurricane probabilities and published storm-surge elevations associated with various hurricane categories. Flood-inundation maps, including areas of wave-action hazard and a color-shaded elevation map, were created from the available data and the estimated 50-year storm tide. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the hazard areas are available on a computer in the municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Data Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the maps in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report.

Shear-wave velocity characterization of the USGS Hawaiian strong-motion network on the Island of Hawaii and development of an NEHRP site-class map

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Ivan G.; Stokoe, Kenneth; Cox, Brady R.; Yuan, Jiabei; Knudsen, Keith L.; Terra, Fabia; Okubo, Paul G.; Lin, Yin-Cheng

2011-01-01

To assess the level and nature of ground shaking in Hawaii for the purposes of earthquake hazard mitigation and seismic design, empirical ground-motion prediction models are desired. To develop such empirical relationships, knowledge of the subsurface site conditions beneath strong-motion stations is critical. Thus, as a first step to develop ground-motion prediction models for Hawaii, spectral-analysis-of-surface-waves (SASW) profiling was performed at the 22 free-field U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) strong-motion sites on the Big Island to obtain shear-wave velocity (VS) data. Nineteen of these stations recorded the 2006 Kiholo Bay moment magnitude (M) 6.7 earthquake, and 17 stations recorded the triggered M 6.0 Mahukona earthquake. VS profiling was performed to reach depths of more than 100 ft. Most of the USGS stations are situated on sites underlain by basalt, based on surficial geologic maps. However, the sites have varying degrees of weathering and soil development. The remaining strong-motion stations are located on alluvium or volcanic ash. VS30 (average VS in the top 30 m) values for the stations on basalt ranged from 906 to 1908 ft/s [National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site classes C and D], because most sites were covered with soil of variable thickness. Based on these data, an NEHRP site-class map was developed for the Big Island. These new VS data will be a significant input into an update of the USGS statewide hazard maps and to the operation of ShakeMap on the island of Hawaii.

Exploring local risk managers' use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes in Baden-Württemberg

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellgren, S.

2013-07-01

In response to the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood hazard maps are currently produced all over Europe, reflecting a wider shift in focus from "flood protection" to "risk management", for which not only public authorities but also populations at risk are seen as responsible. By providing a visual image of the foreseen consequences of flooding, flood hazard maps can enhance people's knowledge about flood risk, making them more capable of an adequate response. Current literature, however, questions the maps' awareness raising capacity, arguing that their content and design are rarely adjusted to laypeople's needs. This paper wants to complement this perspective with a focus on risk communication by studying how these tools are disseminated and marketed to the public in the first place. Judging from communication theory, simply making hazard maps publicly available is unlikely to lead to attitudinal or behavioral effects, since this typically requires two-way communication and material or symbolic incentives. Consequently, it is relevant to investigate whether and how local risk managers, who are well positioned to interact with the local population, make use of flood hazard maps for risk communication purposes. A qualitative case study of this issue in the German state of Baden-Württemberg suggests that many municipalities lack a clear strategy for using this new information tool for hazard and risk communication. Four barriers in this regard are identified: perceived disinterest/sufficient awareness on behalf of the population at risk; unwillingness to cause worry or distress; lack of skills and resources; and insufficient support. These barriers are important to address - in research as well as in practice - since it is only if flood hazard maps are used to enhance local knowledge resources that they can be expected to contribute to social capacity building.

The effects of vent location, event scale and time forecasts on pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Bisson, Marina; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Flandoli, Franco; Isaia, Roberto; Rosi, Mauro; Vitale, Stefano

2017-09-01

This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modelled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of 25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e. including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey?s maps of earthquake shaking hazards provide information essential to creating and updating the seismic design provisions of building codes and insurance rates used in the United States. Periodic revisions of these maps incorporate the results of new research. Buildings, bridges, highways, and utilities built to meet modern seismic design provisions are better able to withstand earthquakes, not only saving lives but also enabling critical activities to continue with less disruption. These maps can also help people assess the hazard to their homes or places of work and can also inform insurance rates.

Building a flood hazard map due to magma effusion into the caldera lake of the Baekdusan Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K.; Kim, S.; Yun, S.; Yu, S.; Kim, I.

2013-12-01

Many volcanic craters and calderas are filled with large amounts of water that can pose significant flood hazards to downstream communities due to their high elevation and the potential for catastrophic releases of water. Recent reports pointed out the Baekdusan volcano that is located between the border of China and North Korea as a potential active volcano. Since Millennium Eruption around 1000 AD, smaller eruptions have occurred at roughly 100-year intervals, with the last one in 1903. The volcano is showing signs of waking from a century-long slumber recently and the volcanic ash may spread up to the northeastern of Japan. The development of various forecasting techniques to prevent and minimize economic and social damage is in urgent need. Floods from lake-filled calderas may be particularly large and high. Volcanic flood may cause significant hydrologic hazards for this reason. This study focuses on constructing a flood hazard map triggered by the uplift of lake bottom due to magma effusion in the Baekdusan volcano. A physically-based uplift model was developed to compute the amount of water and time to peak flow. The ordinary differential equation was numerically solved using the finite difference method and Newton-Raphson iteration method was used to solve nonlinear equation. The magma effusion rate into the caldera lake is followed by the past record from other volcanic activities. As a result, the hydrograph serves as an upper boundary condition when hydrodynamic model (Flo-2D) runs to simulate channel routing downstream. The final goal of the study stresses the potential flood hazard represented by the huge volume of water in the caldera lake, the unique geography, and the limited control capability. he study will contribute to build a geohazard map for the decision-makers and practitioners. Keywords: Effusion rate, Volcanic flood, Caldera lake, Uplift, Flood hazard map Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant [NEMA-BAEKDUSAN-2012-1-2] from the Volcanic Disaster Preparedness Research Center sponsored by National Emergency Management Agency of Korea. Inundation map triggered by magma effusion simulated by Flo-2D

Landslide inventory maps: New tools for an old problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzetti, Fausto; Mondini, Alessandro Cesare; Cardinali, Mauro; Fiorucci, Federica; Santangelo, Michele; Chang, Kang-Tsung

2012-04-01

Landslides are present in all continents, and play an important role in the evolution of landscapes. They also represent a serious hazard in many areas of the world. Despite their importance, we estimate that landslide maps cover less than 1% of the slopes in the landmasses, and systematic information on the type, abundance, and distribution of landslides is lacking. Preparing landslide maps is important to document the extent of landslide phenomena in a region, to investigate the distribution, types, pattern, recurrence and statistics of slope failures, to determine landslide susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability and risk, and to study the evolution of landscapes dominated by mass-wasting processes. Conventional methods for the production of landslide maps rely chiefly on the visual interpretation of stereoscopic aerial photography, aided by field surveys. These methods are time consuming and resource intensive. New and emerging techniques based on satellite, airborne, and terrestrial remote sensing technologies, promise to facilitate the production of landslide maps, reducing the time and resources required for their compilation and systematic update. In this work, we first outline the principles for landslide mapping, and we review the conventional methods for the preparation of landslide maps, including geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventories. Next, we examine recent and new technologies for landslide mapping, considering (i) the exploitation of very-high resolution digital elevation models to analyze surface morphology, (ii) the visual interpretation and semi-automatic analysis of different types of satellite images, including panchromatic, multispectral, and synthetic aperture radar images, and (iii) tools that facilitate landslide field mapping. Next, we discuss the advantages and the limitations of the new remote sensing data and technology for the production of geomorphological, event, seasonal, and multi-temporal inventory maps. We conclude by arguing that the new tools will help to improve the quality of landslide maps, with positive effects on all derivative products and analyses, including erosion studies and landscape modeling, susceptibility and hazard assessments, and risk evaluations.

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

Ground motion models used in the 2014 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.

2015-01-01

The National Seismic Hazard Maps (NSHMs) are an important component of seismic design regulations in the United States. This paper compares hazard using the new suite of ground motion models (GMMs) relative to hazard using the suite of GMMs applied in the previous version of the maps. The new source characterization models are used for both cases. A previous paper (Rezaeian et al. 2014) discussed the five NGA-West2 GMMs used for shallow crustal earthquakes in the Western United States (WUS), which are also summarized here. Our focus in this paper is on GMMs for earthquakes in stable continental regions in the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS), as well as subduction interface and deep intraslab earthquakes. We consider building code hazard levels for peak ground acceleration (PGA), 0.2-s, and 1.0-s spectral accelerations (SAs) on uniform firm-rock site conditions. The GMM modifications in the updated version of the maps created changes in hazard within 5% to 20% in WUS; decreases within 5% to 20% in CEUS; changes within 5% to 15% for subduction interface earthquakes; and changes involving decreases of up to 50% and increases of up to 30% for deep intraslab earthquakes for most U.S. sites. These modifications were combined with changes resulting from modifications in the source characterization models to obtain the new hazard maps.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Mapping polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon and total toxicity equivalent soil concentrations by visible and near-infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Okparanma, Reuben N; Coulon, Frederic; Mayr, Thomas; Mouazen, Abdul M

2014-09-01

In this study, we used data from spectroscopic models based on visible and near-infrared (vis-NIR; 350-2500 nm) diffuse reflectance spectroscopy to develop soil maps of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and total toxicity equivalent concentrations (TTEC) of the PAH mixture. The TTEC maps were then used for hazard assessment of three petroleum release sites in the Niger Delta province of Nigeria (5.317°N, 6.467°E). As the paired t-test revealed, there were non-significant (p > 0.05) differences between soil maps of PAH and TTEC developed with chemically measured and vis-NIR-predicted data. Comparison maps of PAH showed a slight to moderate agreement between measured and predicted data (Kappa coefficient = 0.19-0.56). Using proposed generic assessment criteria, hazard assessment showed that the degree of action for site-specific risk assessment and/or remediation is similar for both measurement methods. This demonstrates that the vis-NIR method may be useful for monitoring hydrocarbon contamination in a petroleum release site. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

First USGS urban seismic hazard maps predict the effects of soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Gomberg, J.S.; Schweig, E.S.; Waldron, B.A.; Tucker, K.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase 1.0 s probabilistic ground motions by ???100%. Probabilistic peak ground accelerations remain at levels similar to the national maps, although the ground motion gradient across Shelby County is reduced and ground motions are more uniform within the county. The M7.7 scenario maps show ground motions similar to the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic maps. As an effect of local geology, both M7.7 and M6.2 scenario maps show a more uniform seismic ground-motion hazard across Shelby County than scenario maps with constant site conditions (i.e., NEHRP B/C boundary).

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2016-04-08

Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2015-01-01

Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Hazard-Specific Vulnerability Mapping for Water Security in a Shale Gas Context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, D. M.; Holding, S.; McKoen, Z.

2015-12-01

Northeast British Columbia (NEBC) is estimated to hold large reserves of unconventional natural gas and has experienced rapid growth in shale gas development activities over recent decades. Shale gas development has the potential to impact the quality and quantity of surface and ground water. Robust policies and sound water management are required to protect water security in relation to the water-energy nexus surrounding shale gas development. In this study, hazard-specific vulnerability mapping was conducted across NEBC to identify areas most vulnerable to water quality and quantity deterioration due to shale gas development. Vulnerability represents the combination of a specific hazard threat and the susceptibility of the water system to that threat. Hazard threats (i.e. potential contamination sources and water abstraction) were mapped spatially across the region. The shallow aquifer susceptibility to contamination was characterised using the DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability approach, while the aquifer susceptibility to abstraction was mapped according to aquifer productivity. Surface water susceptibility to contamination was characterised on a watershed basis to describe the propensity for overland flow (i.e. contaminant transport), while watershed discharge estimates were used to assess surface water susceptibility to water abstractions. The spatial distribution of hazard threats and susceptibility were combined to form hazard-specific vulnerability maps for groundwater quality, groundwater quantity, surface water quality and surface water quantity. The vulnerability maps identify priority areas for further research, monitoring and policy development. Priority areas regarding water quality occur where hazard threat (contamination potential) coincide with high aquifer susceptibility or high overland flow potential. Priority areas regarding water quantity occur where demand is estimated to represent a significant proportion of estimated supply. The identification of priority areas allows for characterization of the vulnerability of water security in the region. This vulnerability mapping approach, using the hazard threat and susceptibility indicators, can be applied to other shale gas areas to assess vulnerability to shale gas activities and support water security.

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

AEGIS: a wildfire prevention and management information system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalabokidis, Kostas; Ager, Alan; Finney, Mark; Athanasis, Nikos; Palaiologou, Palaiologos; Vasilakos, Christos

2016-03-01

We describe a Web-GIS wildfire prevention and management platform (AEGIS) developed as an integrated and easy-to-use decision support tool to manage wildland fire hazards in Greece (http://aegis.aegean.gr). The AEGIS platform assists with early fire warning, fire planning, fire control and coordination of firefighting forces by providing online access to information that is essential for wildfire management. The system uses a number of spatial and non-spatial data sources to support key system functionalities. Land use/land cover maps were produced by combining field inventory data with high-resolution multispectral satellite images (RapidEye). These data support wildfire simulation tools that allow the users to examine potential fire behavior and hazard with the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. End-users provide a minimum number of inputs such as fire duration, ignition point and weather information to conduct a fire simulation. AEGIS offers three types of simulations, i.e., single-fire propagation, point-scale calculation of potential fire behavior, and burn probability analysis, similar to the FlamMap fire behavior modeling software. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were utilized for wildfire ignition risk assessment based on various parameters, training methods, activation functions, pre-processing methods and network structures. The combination of ANNs and expected burned area maps are used to generate integrated output map of fire hazard prediction. The system also incorporates weather information obtained from remote automatic weather stations and weather forecast maps. The system and associated computation algorithms leverage parallel processing techniques (i.e., High Performance Computing and Cloud Computing) that ensure computational power required for real-time application. All AEGIS functionalities are accessible to authorized end-users through a web-based graphical user interface. An innovative smartphone application, AEGIS App, also provides mobile access to the web-based version of the system.

A high-resolution physically-based global flood hazard map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaheil, Y.; Begnudelli, L.; McCollum, J.

2016-12-01

We present the results from a physically-based global flood hazard model. The model uses a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model is set up such that it allows the application of large-scale flood hazard through efficient use of parallel computing. For hydrology, we use the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) model. HRR accounts for surface hydrology using Green-Ampt parameterization. The model is calibrated against observed discharge data from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) network, among other publicly-available datasets. The parallel-computing framework takes advantage of the river network structure to minimize cross-processor messages, and thus significantly increases computational efficiency. For inundation, we implemented a computationally-efficient 2D finite-volume model with wetting/drying. The approach consists of simulating flood along the river network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs simulated by HRR, and scaled up to certain return levels, e.g. 100 years. The model is distributed such that each available processor takes the next simulation. Given an approximate criterion, the simulations are ordered from most-demanding to least-demanding to ensure that all processors finalize almost simultaneously. Upon completing all simulations, the maximum envelope of flood depth is taken to generate the final map. The model is applied globally, with selected results shown from different continents and regions. The maps shown depict flood depth and extent at different return periods. These maps, which are currently available at 3 arc-sec resolution ( 90m) can be made available at higher resolutions where high resolution DEMs are available. The maps can be utilized by flood risk managers at the national, regional, and even local levels to further understand their flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs.

A comparison of the Landsat image and LAHARZ-simulated lahar inundation hazard zone by the 2010 Merapi eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seul-Ki; Lee, Chang-Wook; Lee, Saro

2015-06-01

Located above the Java subduction zone, Merapi Volcano is an active stratovolcano with a volcanic activity cycle of 1-5 years. Most Merapi eruptions are relatively small with volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 1-3. However, the most recent eruption, which occurred in 2010, was quite violent with a VEI of 4 and 386 people were killed. In this study, lahars and pyroclastic flow zones were detected using optical Landsat images and the lahar and pyroclastic flow zone simulated using the LAHARZ program. To detect areal extents of lahar and pyroclastic flows using Landsat images, supervised classification was performed after atmospheric correction by using a cosine of the solar zenith correction (COST) model. As a result, the extracted dimensions of pyroclastic flows are nearly identical to the Calatrava Volcanic Province (CVP) monthly reports. Then, areas of potential lahar and pyroclastic flow inundation based on flow volume using the LAHARZ program were simulated and mapped. Finally, the detected lahars and pyroclastic flow zones were compared with the simulated potential zones using LAHARZ program and verified. Results showed satisfactory similarity (55.63 %) between the detected and simulated zone. The simulated zones using the LAHARZ program can be used as an essential volcanic hazard map for preventing life and property damages for Merapi Volcano and other hazardous volcanic areas. Also, the LAHARZ program can be used to map volcano hazards in other hazardous volcanic areas.

Flood Impacts on People: from Hazard to Risk Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arrighi, C.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

The mitigation of adverse consequences of floods on people is crucial for civil protection and public authorities. According to several studies, in the developed countries the majority of flood-related fatalities occurs due to inappropriate high risk behaviours such as driving and walking in floodwaters. In this work both the loss of stability of vehicles and pedestrians in floodwaters are analysed. Flood hazard is evaluated, based on (i) a 2D inundation model of an urban area, (ii) 3D hydrodynamic simulations of water flows around vehicles and human body and (iii) a dimensional analysis of experimental activity. Exposure and vulnerability of vehicles and population are assessed exploiting several sources of open GIS data in order to produce risk maps for a testing case study. The results show that a significant hazard to vehicles and pedestrians exists in the study area. Particularly high is the hazard to vehicles, which are likely to be swept away by flood flow, possibly aggravate damages to structures and infrastructures and locally alter the flood propagation. Exposure and vulnerability analysis identifies some structures such as schools and public facilities, which may attract several people. Moreover, some shopping facilities in the area, which attract both vehicular and pedestrians' circulation are located in the highest flood hazard zone.The application of the method demonstrates that, at municipal level, such risk maps can support civil defence strategies and education to active citizenship, thus contributing to flood impact reduction to population.

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Kennebec County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Kennebec County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Kennebec County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Kennebec County, Maine is 16 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Kennebec County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Kennebec County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how e

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Somerset County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Somerset County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Somerset County (efforts were made to not duplicate those of pre-scoping completed in March 2005), documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Somerset County, Maine is 18.1 years. Most of these studies were in the late 1970's to the mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-30 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Somerset County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Somerset County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and ho

Scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Schalk, Charles W.

2006-01-01

This report was prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Maine Water Science Center as the deliverable for scoping of flood hazard mapping needs for Cumberland County, Maine, under Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Inter-Agency Agreement Number HSFE01-05-X-0018. This section of the report explains the objective of the task and the purpose of the report. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine State Planning Office Floodplain Management Program, began scoping work in 2005 for Cumberland County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Cumberland County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database or its successor with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Cumberland County, Maine is 21 years. Most of these studies were in the early to mid 1980s. However, in the ensuing 20-25 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights. The following is the scope of work as defined in the FEMA/USGS Statement of Work: Task 1: Collect data from a variety of sources including community surveys, other Federal and State Agencies, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) State Coordinators, Community Assistance Visits (CAVs) and FEMA archives. Lists of mapping needs will be obtained from the MNUSS database, community surveys, and CAVs, if available. FEMA archives will be inventoried for effective FIRM panels, FIS reports, and other flood-hazard data or existing study data. Best available base map information, topographic data, flood-hazard data, and hydrologic and hydraulic data will be identified. Data from the Maine Floodplain Management Program database also will be utilized. Task 2: Contact communities in Cumberland County to notify them that FEMA and the State have selected them for a map update, and that a project scope will be developed with their input. Topics to be reviewed with the communities include (1) Purpose of the Flood Map Project (for example, the update needs that have prompted the map update); (2) The community's mapping needs; (3) The community's available mapping, hydrologic, hydraulic, and flooding information; (4) target schedule for completing the project; and (5) The community's engineering, planning, and geographic information system (GIS) capabilities. On the basis of the collected information from Task 1 and community contacts/meetings in Task 2, the USGS will develop a Draft Project Scope for the identified mapping needs of the communities in Cumberland County. The following items will be addressed in the Draft Project Scope: review of available information, determine if and how effective FIS data can be used in new project, and identify other data needed to

Geo hazard studies and their policy implications in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, W.

2007-05-01

Nicaragua, situated at the Central American Subduction zone and placed in the trajectory of tropical storms and hurricanes, is a frequent showplace of natural disasters which have multiplied the negative effects of a long term socioeconomic crisis leaving Nicaragua currently as the second poorest country of the Americas. In the last years, multiple efforts were undertaken to prevent or mitigate the affectation of the natural phenomena to the country. National and local authorities have become more involved in disaster prevention policy and international cooperation boosted funding for disaster prevention and mitigation measures in the country. The National Geosciences Institution (INETER) in cooperation with foreign partners developed a national monitoring and early warning system on geological and hydro-meteorological phenomena. Geological and risk mapping projects were conducted by INETER and international partners. Universities, NGO´s, International Technical Assistance, and foreign scientific groups cooperated to capacitate Nicaraguan geoscientists and to improve higher education on disaster prevention up to the master degree. Funded by a World Bank loan, coordinated by the National System for Disaster Prevention, Mitigation and Attention (SINAPRED) and scientifically supervised by INETER, multidisciplinary hazard and vulnerability studies were carried out between 2003 and 2005 with emphasis on seismic hazard. These GIS based works provided proposals for land use policies on a local level in 30 municipalities and seismic vulnerability and risk information for each single building in Managua, Capital of Nicaragua. Another large multidisciplinary project produced high resolution air photos, elaborated 1:50,000 vectorized topographic maps, and a digital elevation model for Western Nicaragua. These data, integrated in GIS, were used to assess: 1) Seismic Hazard for Metropolitan Managua; 2) Tsunami hazard for the Pacific coast; 3) Volcano hazard for Telica-Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes; and 4) Flood hazard map of Maravilla river. This study was realized between 2004 and 2006, through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The results of the mapping and investigations are fed in a National GIS on Geohazards maintained by INETER and developed in the frame of a regional cooperation project with BGR, Germany, and other international institutions. Many maps, project reports and GIS coverage are made available on INETER´s Website to the general public. (www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/geofisica.html ).

Flooding Hazard Maps of Different Land Uses in Subsidence Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yongjun; Chang, Hsiangkuan; Tan, Yihchi

2017-04-01

This study aims on flooding hazard maps of different land uses in the subsidence area of southern Taiwan. Those areas are low-lying due to subsidence resulting from over pumping ground water for aquaculture. As a result, the flooding due to storm surges and extreme rainfall are frequent in this area and are expected more frequently in the future. The main land uses there include: residence, fruit trees, and aquaculture. The hazard maps of the three land uses are investigated. The factors affecting hazards of different land uses are listed below. As for residence, flooding depth, duration of flooding, and rising rate of water surface level are factors affecting its degree of hazard. High flooding depth, long duration of flooding, and fast rising rate of water surface make residents harder to evacuate. As for fruit trees, flooding depth and duration of flooding affects its hazard most due to the root hypoxia. As for aquaculture, flooding depth affects its hazard most because the high flooding depth may cause the fish flush out the fishing ponds. An overland flow model is used for simulations of hydraulic parameters for factors such as flooding depth, rising rate of water surface level and duration of flooding. As above-mentioned factors, the hazard maps of different land uses can be made and high hazardous are can also be delineated in the subsidence areas.

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

Evansville Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project (EAEHMP) - Progress Report, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.; Haase, Jennifer L.; Moore, David W.

2009-01-01

Maps of surficial geology, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard, and liquefaction potential index have been prepared by various members of the Evansville Area Earthquake Hazard Mapping Project for seven quadrangles in the Evansville, Indiana, and Henderson, Kentucky, metropolitan areas. The surficial geologic maps feature 23 types of surficial geologic deposits, artificial fill, and undifferentiated bedrock outcrop and include alluvial and lake deposits of the Ohio River valley. Probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard and liquefaction hazard mapping is made possible by drawing on a wealth of information including surficial geologic maps, water well logs, and in-situ testing profiles using the cone penetration test, standard penetration test, down-hole shear wave velocity tests, and seismic refraction tests. These data were compiled and collected with contributions from the Indiana Geological Survey, Kentucky Geological Survey, Illinois State Geological Survey, United States Geological Survey, and Purdue University. Hazard map products are in progress and are expected to be completed by the end of 2009, with a public roll out in early 2010. Preliminary results suggest that there is a 2 percent probability that peak ground accelerations of about 0.3 g will be exceeded in much of the study area within 50 years, which is similar to the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps for a firm rock site value. Accelerations as high as 0.4-0.5 g may be exceeded along the edge of the Ohio River basin. Most of the region outside of the river basin has a low liquefaction potential index (LPI), where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 (that is, there is a high potential for liquefaction) for a M7.7 New Madrid type event is only 20-30 percent. Within the river basin, most of the region has high LPI, where the probability that LPI is greater than 5 for a New Madrid type event is 80-100 percent.

Quantitative landslide risk assessment and mapping on the basis of recent occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remondo, Juan; Bonachea, Jaime; Cendrero, Antonio

A quantitative procedure for mapping landslide risk is developed from considerations of hazard, vulnerability and valuation of exposed elements. The approach based on former work by the authors, is applied in the Bajo Deba area (northern Spain) where a detailed study of landslide occurrence and damage in the recent past (last 50 years) was carried out. Analyses and mapping are implemented in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The method is based on a susceptibility model developed previously from statistical relationships between past landslides and terrain parameters related to instability. Extrapolations based on past landslide behaviour were used to calculate failure frequency for the next 50 years. A detailed inventory of direct damage due to landslides during the study period was carried out and the main elements at risk in the area identified and mapped. Past direct (monetary) losses per type of element were estimated and expressed as an average 'specific loss' for events of a given magnitude (corresponding to a specified scenario). Vulnerability was assessed by comparing losses with the actual value of the elements affected and expressed as a fraction of that value (0-1). From hazard, vulnerability and monetary value, risk was computed for each element considered. Direct risk maps (€/pixel/year) were obtained and indirect losses from the disruption of economic activities due to landslides assessed. The final result is a risk map and table combining all losses per pixel for a 50-year period. Total monetary value at risk for the Bajo Deba area in the next 50 years is about 2.4 × 10 6 Euros.

Mars Exploration Rovers Landing Dispersion Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knocke, Philip C.; Wawrzyniak, Geoffrey G.; Kennedy, Brian M.; Desai, Prasun N.; Parker, TImothy J.; Golombek, Matthew P.; Duxbury, Thomas C.; Kass, David M.

2004-01-01

Landing dispersion estimates for the Mars Exploration Rover missions were key elements in the site targeting process and in the evaluation of landing risk. This paper addresses the process and results of the landing dispersion analyses performed for both Spirit and Opportunity. The several contributors to landing dispersions (navigation and atmospheric uncertainties, spacecraft modeling, winds, and margins) are discussed, as are the analysis tools used. JPL's MarsLS program, a MATLAB-based landing dispersion visualization and statistical analysis tool, was used to calculate the probability of landing within hazardous areas. By convolving this with the probability of landing within flight system limits (in-spec landing) for each hazard area, a single overall measure of landing risk was calculated for each landing ellipse. In-spec probability contours were also generated, allowing a more synoptic view of site risks, illustrating the sensitivity to changes in landing location, and quantifying the possible consequences of anomalies such as incomplete maneuvers. Data and products required to support these analyses are described, including the landing footprints calculated by NASA Langley's POST program and JPL's AEPL program, cartographically registered base maps and hazard maps, and flight system estimates of in-spec landing probabilities for each hazard terrain type. Various factors encountered during operations, including evolving navigation estimates and changing atmospheric models, are discussed and final landing points are compared with approach estimates.

How well should probabilistic seismic hazard maps work?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanneste, K.; Stein, S.; Camelbeeck, T.; Vleminckx, B.

2016-12-01

Recent large earthquakes that gave rise to shaking much stronger than shown in earthquake hazard maps have stimulated discussion about how well these maps forecast future shaking. These discussions have brought home the fact that although the maps are designed to achieve certain goals, we know little about how well they actually perform. As for any other forecast, this question involves verification and validation. Verification involves assessing how well the algorithm used to produce hazard maps implements the conceptual PSHA model ("have we built the model right?"). Validation asks how well the model forecasts the shaking that actually occurs ("have we built the right model?"). We explore the verification issue by simulating the shaking history of an area with assumed distribution of earthquakes, frequency-magnitude relation, temporal occurrence model, and ground-motion prediction equation. We compare the "observed" shaking at many sites over time to that predicted by a hazard map generated for the same set of parameters. PSHA predicts that the fraction of sites at which shaking will exceed that mapped is p = 1 - exp(t/T), where t is the duration of observations and T is the map's return period. This implies that shaking in large earthquakes is typically greater than shown on hazard maps, as has occurred in a number of cases. A large number of simulated earthquake histories yield distributions of shaking consistent with this forecast, with a scatter about this value that decreases as t/T increases. The median results are somewhat lower than predicted for small values of t/T and approach the predicted value for larger values of t/T. Hence, the algorithm appears to be internally consistent and can be regarded as verified for this set of simulations. Validation is more complicated because a real observed earthquake history can yield a fractional exceedance significantly higher or lower than that predicted while still being consistent with the hazard map in question. As a result, given that in the real world we have only a single sample, it is hard to assess whether a misfit between a map and observations arises by chance or reflects a biased map.

Management of Combined Natural Risks - A New Approach: Keynote Address

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanisch, Jörg

A new attempt is made to illustrate and to quantify the relationships of individual natural hazards, their combinations and the human vulnerability to natural hazards. During many catastrophic events, combinations of different natural events aggravate their occurrence substantially. Earthquakes are frequently associated with heavy landsliding (El Salvador 2001) and heavy rainstorms are able to trigger fast running debris flows and not only floods (like during the Mitch disaster in Central America in 1998). That signifies that natural hazard maps should show the combinations of different hazards and their genetic relationships. To put into effect this, first, the individual hazards have to be assessed and presented in hazard zones (0 to 3). Then these hazards zones will be overlain using GIS techniques. In this way, e.g., an earthquake-prone area which coincides with an area susceptible to landslides (ranking 0 to 3 as well) can show hazard concentrations of up to a value of 6, simply adding the individual hazard zones. To get the result of the corresponding risk zones, the vulnerability maps of human settlements and infra-structure have to be overlain on the maps of these combinations of natural hazards.

Geomorphological hazards and environmental impact: Assessment and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panizza, Mario

In five sections the author develops the methods for the integration of geomorphological concepts into Environmental Impact and Mapping. The first section introduces the concepts of Impact and Risk through the relationships between Geomorphological Environment and Anthropical Element. The second section proposes a methodology for the determination of Geomorphological Hazard and the identification of Geomorphological Risk. The third section synthesizes the procedure for the compilation of a Geomorphological Hazards Map. The fourth section outlines the concepts of Geomorphological Resource Assessment for the analysis of the Environmental Impact. The fifth section considers the contribution of geomorphological studies and mapping in the procedure for Environmental Impact Assessment.

Using Google Maps to Access USGS Volcano Hazards Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venezky, D. Y.; Snedigar, S.; Guffanti, M.; Bailey, J. E.; Wall, B. G.

2006-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazard Program (VHP) is revising the information architecture of our website to provide data within a geospatial context for emergency managers, educators, landowners in volcanic areas, researchers, and the general public. Using a map-based interface for displaying hazard information provides a synoptic view of volcanic activity along with the ability to quickly ascertain where hazards are in relation to major population and infrastructure centers. At the same time, the map interface provides a gateway for educators and the public to find information about volcanoes in their geographic context. A plethora of data visualization solutions are available that are flexible, customizable, and can be run on individual websites. We are currently using a Google map interface because it can be accessed immediately from a website (a downloadable viewer is not required), and it provides simple features for moving around and zooming within the large map area that encompasses U.S. volcanism. A text interface will also be available. The new VHP website will serve as a portal to information for each volcano the USGS monitors with icons for alert levels and aviation color codes. When a volcano is clicked, a window will provide additional information including links to maps, images, and real-time data, thereby connecting information from individual observatories, the Smithsonian Institution, and our partner universities. In addition to the VHP home page, many observatories and partners have detailed graphical interfaces to data and images that include the activity pages for the Alaska Volcano Observatory, the Smithsonian Google Earth files, and Yellowstone Volcano Observatory pictures and data. Users with varied requests such as raw data, scientific papers, images, or brief overviews expect to be able to quickly access information for their specialized needs. Over the next few years we will be gathering, cleansing, reorganizing, and posting data in multiple formats to meet these needs.

Landing Site Dispersion Analysis and Statistical Assessment for the Mars Phoenix Lander

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfiglio, Eugene P.; Adams, Douglas; Craig, Lynn; Spencer, David A.; Strauss, William; Seelos, Frank P.; Seelos, Kimberly D.; Arvidson, Ray; Heet, Tabatha

2008-01-01

The Mars Phoenix Lander launched on August 4, 2007 and successfully landed on Mars 10 months later on May 25, 2008. Landing ellipse predicts and hazard maps were key in selecting safe surface targets for Phoenix. Hazard maps were based on terrain slopes, geomorphology maps and automated rock counts of MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images. The expected landing dispersion which led to the selection of Phoenix's surface target is discussed as well as the actual landing dispersion predicts determined during operations in the weeks, days, and hours before landing. A statistical assessment of these dispersions is performed, comparing the actual landing-safety probabilities to criteria levied by the project. Also discussed are applications for this statistical analysis which were used by the Phoenix project. These include using the statistical analysis used to verify the effectiveness of a pre-planned maneuver menu and calculating the probability of future maneuvers.

High resolution global flood hazard map from physically-based hydrologic and hydraulic models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begnudelli, L.; Kaheil, Y.; McCollum, J.

2017-12-01

The global flood map published online at http://www.fmglobal.com/research-and-resources/global-flood-map at 90m resolution is being used worldwide to understand flood risk exposure, exercise certain measures of mitigation, and/or transfer the residual risk financially through flood insurance programs. The modeling system is based on a physically-based hydrologic model to simulate river discharges, and 2D shallow-water hydrodynamic model to simulate inundation. The model can be applied to large-scale flood hazard mapping thanks to several solutions that maximize its efficiency and the use of parallel computing. The hydrologic component of the modeling system is the Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model. HRR simulates hydrological processes using a Green-Ampt parameterization, and is calibrated against observed discharge data from several publicly-available datasets. For inundation mapping, we use a 2D Finite-Volume Shallow-Water model with wetting/drying. We introduce here a grid Up-Scaling Technique (UST) for hydraulic modeling to perform simulations at higher resolution at global scale with relatively short computational times. A 30m SRTM is now available worldwide along with higher accuracy and/or resolution local Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) in many countries and regions. UST consists of aggregating computational cells, thus forming a coarser grid, while retaining the topographic information from the original full-resolution mesh. The full-resolution topography is used for building relationships between volume and free surface elevation inside cells and computing inter-cell fluxes. This approach almost achieves computational speed typical of the coarse grids while preserving, to a significant extent, the accuracy offered by the much higher resolution available DEM. The simulations are carried out along each river of the network by forcing the hydraulic model with the streamflow hydrographs generated by HRR. Hydrographs are scaled so that the peak corresponds to the return period corresponding to the hazard map being produced (e.g. 100 years, 500 years). Each numerical simulation models one river reach, except for the longest reaches which are split in smaller parts. Here we show results for selected river basins worldwide.

78 FR 30258 - Hazardous Materials: Enhanced Enforcement Procedures-Resumption of Transportation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-22

... 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21, which included the Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety... 6, 2012, the President signed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21... This NPRM In MAP-21 Congress directed the Secretary to address certain transportation matters related...

Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

2005-12-01

The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

Development of Maximum Considered Earthquake Ground Motion Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leyendecker, E.V.; Hunt, R.J.; Frankel, A.D.; Rukstales, K.S.

2000-01-01

The 1997 NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings use a design procedure that is based on spectral response acceleration rather than the traditional peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, or zone factors. The spectral response accelerations are obtained from maps prepared following the recommendations of the Building Seismic Safety Council's (BSSC) Seismic Design Procedures Group (SDPG). The SDPG-recommended maps, the Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) Ground Motion Maps, are based on the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard maps with additional modifications incorporating deterministic ground motions in selected areas and the application of engineering judgement. The MCE ground motion maps included with the 1997 NEHRP Provisions also serve as the basis for the ground motion maps used in the seismic design portions of the 2000 International Building Code and the 2000 International Residential Code. Additionally the design maps prepared for the 1997 NEHRP Provisions, combined with selected USGS probabilistic maps, are used with the 1997 NEHRP Guidelines for the Seismic Rehabilitation of Buildings.

Tsunami hazard, vulnerability and impact assessment of the coastal area of Rabat, Morocco

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Renou, Camille; Rouffi, Frédéric; Atillah, Abderrahman; Moudni, Hicham

2010-05-01

Among African countries, Morocco is probably one of the most exposed to tsunami hazard. Indeed, Morocco is integrated in the particular geodynamic context of the northern African margin characterized by the existence of the Azores-Gibraltar fault separating two active tectonic plates: the African and the Eurasian plates. This area generated and still generates many large earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 6. The Moroccan Atlantic coasts are thus exposed to tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring offshore. Tsunamis generated in this area are not frequent but can be really disastrous and could have a huge impact. In the framework of the SCHEMA project, a 3 year European project, we studied the consequences on the Moroccan coastal area of two potential tsunami scenarios, applying the generic methodology developed during the project for building tsunami vulnerability and impact maps. The study focuses on the "Rabat Zaïr" region. Centred on the Bouregreg Valley, this study area encompasses three main coastal and densely populated towns of Morocco: Rabat (capital), Salé and Temara. Using a combination of numerical modelling, field surveys, earth observation and GIS data, the risk has been evaluated for this highly vulnerable area (flat topography, small beaches with many tourists in summer, presence of several bridges on the Bouregreg river separating Rabat and Salé, presence of a dam upstream the 2 cities, and development of a new residential and touristic complex on the coastline and in the vicinity of the estuary). Two scenarios of tsunami have been studied to estimate the hazard on the coastal zone of Rabat: a worst case scenario based on the historical Lisbon earthquake of 1755 as well as a moderate scenario based on the historical Portugal earthquake of 1969. For each scenario, numerical models allowed to produce inundation maps consisting of inundation limits as well as maximum water heights. Land use data together with earth observation data interpretation allowed then to generate a building classification. Finally potential damages are derived using damage functions developed during the project by Geosciences Consultants (GSC), by crossing information from hazard maps (maximum water elevations) with building vulnerability maps. The damage maps will then serve as a base for elaborating evacuation plans with appropriate rescue and relief processes useful for decision makers, local authorities and investors.

Map showing potential metal-mine drainage hazards in Colorado, based on mineral-deposit geology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Streufert, Randall K.; Smith, Kathleen S.; Smith, Steven M.; Wallace, Alan R.; Toth, Margo I.; Nash, J. Thomas; Robinson, Rob A.; Ficklin, Walter H.; Lee, Gregory K.

1995-01-01

This map, compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Colorado Geological Survey (CGS) and the U. S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM), shows potential mine-drainage hazards that may exist in Colorado metal-mining districts, as indicated by the geologic characteristics of the mineral deposits that occur in the respective districts. It was designed to demonstrate how geologic and geochemical information can be used on a regional scale to help assess the potential for mining-related and natural drainage problems in mining districts, unmined mineralized areas, and surrounding watersheds. The map also provides information on the distribution of different mineral deposit types across Colorado. A GIS (Geographic Information System) format was used to integrate geologic, geochemical, water-quality, climate, landuse, and ecological data from diverse sources. Likely mine-drainage signatures were defined for each mining district based on: (1) a review of the geologic characteristics of the mining district, including mineralogy, trace-element content, host-rock lithology, and wallrock alteration, and; (2) results of site specific studies on the geologic controls on mine-drainage composition.

Seismic hazard map of the western hemisphere

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shedlock, K.M.; Tanner, J.G.

1999-01-01

Vulnerability to natural disasters increases with urbanization and development of associated support systems (reservoirs, power plants, etc.). Catastrophic earthquakes account for 60% of worldwide casualties associated with natural disasters. Economic damage from earthquakes is increasing, even in technologically advanced countries with some level of seismic zonation, as shown by the 1989 Loma Prieta, CA ($6 billion), 1994 Northridge, CA ($ 25 billion), and 1995 Kobe, Japan (> $ 100 billion) earthquakes. The growth of megacities in seismically active regions around the world often includes the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, due to an insufficient knowledge of existing seismic hazard. Minimization of the loss of life, property damage, and social and economic disruption due to earthquakes depends on reliable estimates of seismic hazard. National, state, and local governments, decision makers, engineers, planners, emergency response organizations, builders, universities, and the general public require seismic hazard estimates for land use planning, improved building design and construction (including adoption of building construction codes), emergency response preparedness plans, economic forecasts, housing and employment decisions, and many more types of risk mitigation. The seismic hazard map of the Americas is the concatenation of various national and regional maps, involving a suite of approaches. The combined maps and documentation provide a useful global seismic hazard framework and serve as a resource for any national or regional agency for further detailed studies applicable to their needs. This seismic hazard map depicts Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for the western hemisphere. PGA, a short-period ground motion parameter that is proportional to force, is the most commonly mapped ground motion parameter because current building codes that include seismic provisions specify the horizontal force a building should be able to withstand during an earthquake. This seismic hazard map of the Americas depicts the likely level of short-period ground motion from earthquakes in a fifty-year window. Short-period ground motions effect short-period structures (e.g., one-to-two story buildings). The largest seismic hazard values in the western hemisphere generally occur in areas that have been, or are likely to be, the sites of the largest plate boundary earthquakes. Although the largest earthquakes ever recorded are the 1960 Chile and 1964 Alaska subduction zone earthquakes, the largest seismic hazard (PGA) value in the Americas is in Southern California (U.S.), along the San Andreas fault.

Landslide risk mapping and modeling in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Hong, Y.

2015-12-01

Under circumstances of global climate change, tectonic stress and human effect, landslides are among the most frequent and severely widespread natural hazards on Earth, as demonstrated in the World Atlas of Natural Hazards (McGuire et al., 2004). Every year, landslide activities cause serious economic loss as well as casualties (Róbert et al., 2005). How landslides can be monitored and predicted is an urgent research topic of the international landslide research community. Particularly, there is a lack of high quality and updated landslide risk maps and guidelines that can be employed to better mitigate and prevent landslide disasters in many emerging regions, including China (Hong, 2007). Since the 1950s, landslide events have been recorded in the statistical yearbooks, newspapers, and monographs in China. As disasters have been increasingly concerned by the government and the public, information about landslide events is becoming available from online news reports (Liu et al., 2012).This study presents multi-scale landslide risk mapping and modeling in China. At the national scale, based on historical data and practical experiences, we carry out landslide susceptibility and risk mapping by adopting a statistical approach and pattern recognition methods to construct empirical models. Over the identified landslide hot-spot areas, we further evaluate the slope-stability for each individual site (Sidle and Hirotaka, 2006), with the ultimate goal to set up a space-time multi-scale coupling system of Landslide risk mapping and modeling for landslide hazard monitoring and early warning.

Remote sensing as tool for development of landslide databases: The case of the Messina Province (Italy) geodatabase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciampalini, Andrea; Raspini, Federico; Bianchini, Silvia; Frodella, William; Bardi, Federica; Lagomarsino, Daniela; Di Traglia, Federico; Moretti, Sandro; Proietti, Chiara; Pagliara, Paola; Onori, Roberta; Corazza, Angelo; Duro, Andrea; Basile, Giuseppe; Casagli, Nicola

2015-11-01

Landslide geodatabases, including inventories and thematic data, today are fundamental tools for national and/or local authorities in susceptibility, hazard and risk management. A well organized landslide geo-database contains different kinds of data such as past information (landslide inventory maps), ancillary data and updated remote sensing (space-borne and ground based) data, which can be integrated in order to produce landslide susceptibility maps, updated landslide inventory maps and hazard and risk assessment maps. Italy is strongly affected by landslide phenomena which cause victims and significant economic damage to buildings and infrastructure, loss of productive soils and pasture lands. In particular, the Messina Province (southern Italy) represents an area where landslides are recurrent and characterized by high magnitude, due to several predisposing factors (e.g. morphology, land use, lithologies) and different triggering mechanisms (meteorological conditions, seismicity, active tectonics and volcanic activity). For this area, a geodatabase was created by using different monitoring techniques, including remote sensing (e.g. SAR satellite ERS1/2, ENVISAT, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed) data, and in situ measurements (e.g. GBInSAR, damage assessment). In this paper a complete landslide geodatabase of the Messina Province, designed following the requirements of the local and national Civil Protection authorities, is presented. This geo-database was used to produce maps (e.g. susceptibility, ground deformation velocities, damage assessment, risk zonation) which today are constantly used by the Civil Protection authorities to manage the landslide hazard of the Messina Province.

Interpretive geologic bedrock map of the Tanana B-1 Quadrangle, Central Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reifenstuh, Rocky R.; Dover, James H.; Newberry, Rainer J.; Calutice, Karen H.; Liss, Shirley A.; Blodgett, Robert B.; Budtzen, Thomas K.; Weber, Florence R.

1997-01-01

This report provides detailed (1:63,360-scale) mapping of the Tanana B-1 Quadrangle (250 square miles; equivalent to four 7.5 minute quadrangles). The area is part of the Manley Hot Springs-Tofty mining districts and adjacent to the Rampart mining district to the north of the Tanana A-1 and A-2 Quadrangles. This report includes detailed bedrock, structural, stratigraphic, and geochronologic data. Based on the resulting geologic maps, field investigations, and laboratory materials analyses, the project has also generated derivative maps of geologic construction materials and geologic hazards.

Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

2012-12-01

Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

New Criterion and Tool for Caltrans Seismic Hazard Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shantz, T.; Merriam, M.; Turner, L.; Chiou, B.; Liu, X.

2008-12-01

Caltrans recently adopted new procedures for the development of response spectra for structure design. These procedures incorporate both deterministic and probabilistic criteria. The Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models (2008) are used for deterministic assessment (using a revised late-Quaternary age fault database), and the USGS 2008 5% in 50-year hazard maps are used for probabilistic assessment. A minimum deterministic spectrum based on a M6.5 earthquake at 12 km is also included. These spectra are enveloped and the largest values used. A new publicly available web-based design tool for calculating the design spectrum will be used for calculations. The tool is built on a Windows-Apache-MySQL-PHP (WAMP) platform and integrates GoogleMaps for increased flexibility in the tool's use. Links to Caltrans data such as pre-construction logs of test borings assist in the estimation of Vs30 values used in the new procedures. Basin effects based on new models developed for the CFM, for the San Francisco Bay area by the USGS, and by Thurber (2008) are also incorporated. It is anticipated that additional layers such as CGS Seismic Hazard Zone maps will be added in the future. Application of the new criterion will result in expected higher levels of ground motion at many bridges west of the Coast Ranges. In eastern California, use of the NGA relationships for strike-slip faulting (the dominant sense of motion in California) will often result in slightly lower expected values for bridges. The expected result is a more realistic prediction of ground motions at bridges, in keeping with those motions developed for other large-scale and important structures. The tool is based on a simplified fault map of California, so it will not be used for more detailed evaluations such as surface rupture determination. Announcements regarding tool availability (expected to be in early 2009) are at http://www.dot.ca.gov/research/index.htm

Maritime Tsunami Hazard Assessment in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynett, P. J.; Borrero, J. C.; Wilson, R. I.; Miller, K. M.

2012-12-01

The California tsunami program in cooperation with NOAA and FEMA has begun implementing a plan to increase awareness of tsunami generated hazards to the maritime community (both ships and harbor infrastructure) through the development of in-harbor hazard maps, offshore safety zones for boater evacuation, and associated guidance for harbors and marinas before, during and following tsunamis. The hope is that the maritime guidance and associated education and outreach program will help save lives and reduce exposure of damage to boats and harbor infrastructure. An important step in this process is to understand the causative mechanism for damage in ports and harbors, and then ensure that the models used to generate hazard maps are able to accurately simulate these processes. Findings will be used to develop maps, guidance documents, and consistent policy recommendations for emergency managers and port authorities and provide information critical to real-time decisions required when responding to tsunami alert notifications. Basin resonance and geometric amplification are two reasonably well understood mechanisms for local magnification of tsunami impact in harbors, and are generally the mechanisms investigated when estimating the tsunami hazard potential in a port or harbor. On the other hand, our understanding of and predictive ability for currents is lacking. When a free surface flow is forced through a geometric constriction, it is readily expected that the enhanced potential gradient will drive strong, possibly unstable currents and the associated turbulent coherent structures such as "jets" and "whirlpools"; a simple example would be tidal flow through an inlet channel. However, these fundamentals have not been quantitatively connected with respect to understanding tsunami hazards in ports and harbors. A plausible explanation for this oversight is the observation that these features are turbulent phenomena with spatial and temporal scales much smaller than that of a typical tsunami. The ability to model and then validate these currentsdissect them has only recently become available through the evaluation of dozens of eyewitness accounts and hundreds of videos.developed. In this presentation, we will present ongoing work related to the application of such models to quantify the maritime tsunami hazard in select ports and harbors in California. The development of current-based tsunami hazard maps and safe-offshore-depth delineations will be discussed. We will also present an overview of the challenges in modeling tsunami currents, including capture of turbulent dynamics, coupling with tides, and issues with long-duration simulations. This work in California will form the basis for tsunami hazard reduction for all U.S. maritime communities through the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program.

Robots, systems, and methods for hazard evaluation and visualization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nielsen, Curtis W.; Bruemmer, David J.; Walton, Miles C.

A robot includes a hazard sensor, a locomotor, and a system controller. The robot senses a hazard intensity at a location of the robot, moves to a new location in response to the hazard intensity, and autonomously repeats the sensing and moving to determine multiple hazard levels at multiple locations. The robot may also include a communicator to communicate the multiple hazard levels to a remote controller. The remote controller includes a communicator for sending user commands to the robot and receiving the hazard levels from the robot. A graphical user interface displays an environment map of the environment proximatemore » the robot and a scale for indicating a hazard intensity. A hazard indicator corresponds to a robot position in the environment map and graphically indicates the hazard intensity at the robot position relative to the scale.« less

Evaluation of Horizontal Seismic Hazard of Shahrekord, Iran

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Dehkordi, M. Raeisi; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

This paper presents probabilistic horizontal seismic hazard assessment of Shahrekord, Iran. It displays the probabilistic estimate of Peak Ground Horizontal Acceleration (PGHA) for the return period of 75, 225, 475 and 2475 years. The output of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is based on peak ground acceleration (PGA), which is the most common criterion in designing of buildings. A catalogue of seismic events that includes both historical and instrumental events was developed and covers the period from 840 to 2007. The seismic sources that affect the hazard in Shahrekord were identified within the radius of 150 km and the recurrencemore » relationships of these sources were generated. Finally four maps have been prepared to indicate the earthquake hazard of Shahrekord in the form of iso-acceleration contour lines for different hazard levels by using SEISRISK III software.« less

Research, methodology, and applications of probabilistic seismic-hazard mapping of the Central and Eastern United States; minutes of a workshop on June 13-14, 2000, at Saint Louis University

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Russell L.; Perkins, David M.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is updating and revising its 1996 national seismic-hazard maps for release in 2001. Part of this process is the convening of four regional workshops with earth scientists and other users of the maps. The second of these workshops was sponsored by the USGS and the Mid-America Earthquake Center, and was hosted by Saint Louis University on June 13-14, 2000.The workshop concentrated on the central and eastern U.S. (CEUS) east of the Rocky Mountains. The tasks of the workshop were to (1) evaluate new research findings that are relevant to seismic hazard mapping, (2) discuss modifications in the inputs and methodology used in the national maps, (3) discuss concerns by engineers and other users about the scientific input to the maps and the use of the hazard maps in building codes, and (4) identify needed research in the CEUS that can improve the seismic hazard maps and reduce their uncertainties. These minutes summarize the workshop discussions. This is not a transcript; some individual remarks and short discussions of side issues and logistics were omitted. Named speakers were sent a draft of the minutes with a request for corrections of any errors in remarks attributed to them. Nine people returned corrections, amplifications, or approvals of their remarks as reported. The rest of this document consists of the meeting agenda, discussion summaries, and a list of the 60 attendees.

MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

2016-04-01

In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process has been applied also on the scientific output of MED-SUV WP6, as a tool for the short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment. For the Campi Flegrei volcanic system, the expected tool has been implemented to compute hazard curves, hazard maps and probability maps for tephra fallout on a target grid covering the Campania region. This allows the end user to visualize the hazard from tephra fallout and its uncertainty. The response of end-users to such products will help to determine to what extent end-users understand them, find them useful, and match their requirements. In order to involve also Etna area in WP6 TASK 3 activities, a questionnaire developed in the VUELCO project (Volcanic Unrest in Europe and Latin America) has been proposed to Sicily Civil Protection officials having decision-making responsibility in case of volcanic unrest at Etna and Stromboli, to survey their opinions and requirements also in case of volcanic unrest

Deaggregation of Probabilistic Ground Motions in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, S.; Perkins, D.; Frankel, A.

1999-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a technique for estimating the annual rate of exceedance of a specified ground motion at a site due to known and suspected earthquake sources. The relative contributions of the various sources to the total seismic hazard are determined as a function of their occurrence rates and their ground-motion potential. The separation of the exceedance contributions into bins whose base dimensions are magnitude and distance is called deaggregation. We have deaggregated the hazard analyses for the new USGS national probabilistic ground-motion hazard maps (Frankel et al., 1996). For points on a 0.2?? grid in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), we show color maps of the geographical variation of mean and modal magnitudes (M??, M??) and distances (D??, D??) for ground motions having a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. These maps are displayed for peak horizontal acceleration and for spectral response accelerations of 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec. We tabulate M??, D??, M??, and D?? for 49 CEUS cities for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response. Thus, these maps and tables are PSHA-derived estimates of the potential earthquakes that dominate seismic hazard at short and intermediate periods in the CEUS. The contribution to hazard of the New Madrid and Charleston sources dominates over much of the CEUS; for 0.2-sec response, over 40% of the area; for 1.0-sec response, over 80% of the area. For 0.2-sec response, D?? ranges from 20 to 200 km, for 1.0 sec, 30 to 600 km. For sites influenced by New Madrid or Charleston, D is less than the distance to these sources, and M?? is less than the characteristic magnitude of these sources, because averaging takes into account the effect of smaller magnitude and closer sources. On the other hand, D?? is directly the distance to New Madrid or Charleston and M?? for 0.2- and 1.0-sec response corresponds to the dominating source over much of the CEUS. For some cities in the North Atlantic states, short-period seismic hazard is apt to be controlled by local seismicity, whereas intermediate period (1.0 sec) hazard is commonly controlled by regional seismicity, such as that of the Charlevoix seismic zone.

Hazard proximities of childhood cancers in Great Britain from 1953-80.

PubMed Central

Knox, E G; Gilman, E A

1997-01-01

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Firstly, to examine relationships between the birth and death addresses of children dying from leukaemia and cancer in Great Britain, and the sites of potential environmental hazards; and secondly to measure relative case densities close to, and at increasing distances from, different hazard types. DESIGN: Home address postcodes (PCs) and their map coordinates were identified at birth and at death in children who died from leukaemia or cancer. Potentially hazardous industrial addresses and PCs were listed from business and other directories, and map coordinates obtained from the Central Postcode Directory or else located directly on Ordnance Survey (OS) maps. Railway lines and motorways were digitised from OS maps. Numbers of deaths (and births) at successive radial distances from these hazards were counted and compared with expected numbers. The latter were based on a count of all PCs at similar distances. Relative case density ratios at successive distances from the hazards were obtained from observed and expected numbers, aggregated over similar sites. This was repeated for different hazard types and results were tested for evidence of systematic centrifugal case density gradients. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: All 22,458 children dying from leukaemia or cancer aged 0-15 years, in England, Wales, and Scotland, between 1953 and 1980. MAIN RESULTS: Relative excesses of leukaemias and of solid cancers were found near the following: (1) oil refineries, major oil storage installations, railside oil distribution terminals and factories making bitumen products; (2) motor car factories, coach builders, and car body repairers; (3) major users of petroleum products including manufacturers of solvents, paint sprayers, fibreglass fabricators, paint and varnish makers, plastics and detergent manufacturers, and galvanisers; (4) users of kilns and furnaces including steelworks, power stations, galvanisers, cement makers, brickworks, crematoria and aluminium, zinc, and iron/steel foundries; (5) airfields, railways, motorways and harbours. The findings for leukaemias and for solid cancers were indistinguishable. The hazard proximities of birth addresses were stronger than for death addresses. For children who had moved house between birth and death, the proximity effect was limited to the birth addresses. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood cancers are geographically associated with two main types of industrial atmospheric effluent namely: (1) petroleum derived volatiles and (2) kiln and furnace smoke and gases, and effluents from internal combustion engines. PMID:9196644

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2013-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

CyberShake: Running Seismic Hazard Workflows on Distributed HPC Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, S.; Maechling, P. J.; Graves, R. W.; Gill, D.; Olsen, K. B.; Milner, K. R.; Yu, J.; Jordan, T. H.

2013-12-01

As part of its program of earthquake system science research, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) has developed a simulation platform, CyberShake, to perform physics-based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using 3D deterministic wave propagation simulations. CyberShake performs PSHA by simulating a tensor-valued wavefield of Strain Green Tensors, and then using seismic reciprocity to calculate synthetic seismograms for about 415,000 events per site of interest. These seismograms are processed to compute ground motion intensity measures, which are then combined with probabilities from an earthquake rupture forecast to produce a site-specific hazard curve. Seismic hazard curves for hundreds of sites in a region can be used to calculate a seismic hazard map, representing the seismic hazard for a region. We present a recently completed PHSA study in which we calculated four CyberShake seismic hazard maps for the Southern California area to compare how CyberShake hazard results are affected by different SGT computational codes (AWP-ODC and AWP-RWG) and different community velocity models (Community Velocity Model - SCEC (CVM-S4) v11.11 and Community Velocity Model - Harvard (CVM-H) v11.9). We present our approach to running workflow applications on distributed HPC resources, including systems without support for remote job submission. We show how our approach extends the benefits of scientific workflows, such as job and data management, to large-scale applications on Track 1 and Leadership class open-science HPC resources. We used our distributed workflow approach to perform CyberShake Study 13.4 on two new NSF open-science HPC computing resources, Blue Waters and Stampede, executing over 470 million tasks to calculate physics-based hazard curves for 286 locations in the Southern California region. For each location, we calculated seismic hazard curves with two different community velocity models and two different SGT codes, resulting in over 1100 hazard curves. We will report on the performance of this CyberShake study, four times larger than previous studies. Additionally, we will examine the challenges we face applying these workflow techniques to additional open-science HPC systems and discuss whether our workflow solutions continue to provide value to our large-scale PSHA calculations.

Lava flow hazard at the new South-East Crater of Etna volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cappello, Annalisa; Ganci, Gaetana; Bilotta, Giuseppe; Hérault, Alexis; Zago, Vito; Del Negro, Ciro

2017-04-01

The summit area of Mount Etna has frequently undergone major morphological changes due to its persistent eruptive activity. Since its creation during the 1971 eruption, the Southeast Crater (SEC) has been the most active of the summit craters of Etna. At first, it was a degassing pit located close to the southeast base of the Central Crater cone. During the first 40 years of activity, SEC erupted quite frequently producing almost one hundred of lava flows. Between 2011 and 2016, more than 50 lava fountains occurred, leading to the formation of a new pyroclastic cone (NSEC) on the eastern flank of the SEC. All SEC eruptions are likely to give rise to lava flow, which is the greatest hazard presented to the tourist facilities on the south flank of Etna. For this reason, in 2011 we produced a lava flow hazard map for SEC eruptions using the 2005 DEM as topographic base, where the NSEC was not yet formed. Here we present the new 1-m DEM of Etna updated to 18 December 2015 obtained from high resolution stereo Pléiades images (0.5 m). Processing of Pléiades data was performed by using the DEM Extraction Module of ENVI through three steps: epipolar image creation, image matching, and DEM geocoding. This DEM was used as the new topographic base to produce the first hazard map from lava flow inundation in the NSEC area allowing key at-risk zones to be rapidly and appropriately identified.

Karst map of Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alemán González, Wilma B.

2010-01-01

This map is a digital compilation, combining the mapping of earlier geologists. Their work, cited on the map, contains more detailed descriptions of karst areas and landforms in Puerto Rico. This map is the basis for the Puerto Rico part of a new national karst map currently being compiled by the U.S. Geological Survey. In addition, this product is a standalone, citable source of digital karst data for Puerto Rico. Nearly 25 percent of the United States is underlain by karst terrain, and a large part of that area is undergoing urban and industrial development. Accurate delineations of karstic rocks are needed at scales suitable for national, State, and local maps. The data on this map contribute to a better understanding of subsidence hazards, groundwater contamination potential, and cave resources as well as serve as a guide to topical research on karst. Because the karst data were digitized from maps having a different scale and projection from those on the base map used for this publication, some karst features may not coincide perfectly with physiographic features portrayed on the base map.

Towards drought risk mapping on a pan-European scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Stahl, Kerstin; Seneviratne, Sonia

2014-05-01

Drought is a very complex and multifarious natural hazard, which causes a variety of direct and indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts. For the last 30 years, droughts in Europe caused over 100 billion Euros of losses from impacts in various sectors e.g. agriculture, water quality or energy production. Despite the apparent importance of this hazard observed pan-European drought impacts have not yet been quantitatively related to the most important climatological drivers. Fundamentally, a common approach to describe drought risk on a pan-European scale is still missing. This contribution presents an approach for linking climatological drought indices with observed drought impacts at the European scale. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) for different time scales were calculated based on E-OBS data and are used to describe the drought hazard. Data from the European Drought Impact Inventory (EDII) compiled by the EU FP7 Drought R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) project are used as a proxy for multi-sectorial (impact categories) vulnerability following the assumption that a reported impact reflects a region's vulnerability to the hazard. Drought risk is then modelled statistically by applying logistic regression to estimate the probability of impact report occurrence as a function of SPI and SPEI. This approach finally allows to map the probability of drought impact occurrence on a year by year basis. The emerging patterns compare well to many known European drought events. Such maps may become an essential component of Drought Risk Management to foster resilience for this hazard at the large scale.

Hazard analysis of landslides triggered by Typhoon Chata'an on July 2, 2002, in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Reid, Mark E.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

More than 250 landslides were triggered across the eastern volcanic islands of Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia by torrential rainfall from tropical storm Chata?an on July 2, 2002. Landslides triggered during nearly 20 inches of rainfall in less than 24 hours caused 43 fatalities and the destruction or damage of 231 structures, including homes, schools, community centers, and medical dispensaries. Landslides also buried roads, crops, and water supplies. The landslides ranged in volume from a few cubic meters to more than 1 million cubic meters. Most of the failures began as slumps and transformed into debris flows, some of which traveled several hundred meters across coastal flatlands into populated areas. A landslide-inventory map produced after the storm shows that the island of Tonoas had the largest area affected by landslides, although the islands of Weno, Fefan, Etten, Uman, Siis, Udot, Eot, and Fanapanges also had significant landslides. Based on observations since the storm, we estimate the continuing hazard from landslides triggered by Chata?an to be relatively low. However, tropical storms and typhoons similar to Chata?an frequently develop in Micronesia and are likely to affect the islands of Chuuk in the future. To assess the landslide hazard from future tropical storms, we produced a hazard map that identifies landslide-source areas of high, moderate, and low hazard. This map can be used to identify relatively safe areas for relocating structures or establishing areas where people could gather for shelter in relative safety during future typhoons or tropical storms similar to Chata?an.

Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

2017-04-01

We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For such an approach has been used a methodology that consists of the application of a process-based geomorphological mapping, based on data derived from GIS analysis using high-resolution DEMs, field measurements and aerial photograph interpretations. Our integrated approach, which allows quantification of the flow rate and a semi-quantitative assessment of sediment that can be mobilized during hydro-meteorological events, is applied for the first time to torrential catchmenmts of the southern Apennines and may significantly contribute to previsional studies aimed at risk mitigation in the study region.

The landslide susceptibility mapping and assessment with ZY satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Zhao, Y.

2012-12-01

Natural hazards can result in enormous property damage and casualties in mountainous regions. In China, the direct loss of hazards is about 400 million yuan in 2011. Especially the landslide, the most common natural hazards, got the wide attention of each country. Landslide susceptibility mapping is of great importance for landslide hazard mitigation efforts throughout the world. In Southwest Hubei, there are much mineral mining activities, which may trigger the landslide. In addition the Three Gorges reservoir is located in this area, and the storage changed the geological and hydrological environment, which may increase the frequency of the ancient landslide reactivation, and the new landslide occurrence. There are more than 200 landslide hazards happened since 2003. So producing a regional-scaled landslide susceptibility map is necessary. For the above purpose, the landslide susceptibility mapping was produced by using the ZY-3 and ZY-1-02C satellite data, the DEMs and the conventional topographic data.(1) The DEM derivatives slope gradient, the slope aspect and the topographic wetness index (TWI) ; (2) in order to acquire the spatially continuous vegetation information, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was computed using ZY-1-02C and ZY-3; (3) the regional lithologic information (i.e. mineral distribution) and the tectonic information obtained from remote sensing data in combination with regional geological survey; (4) the regional hydrogeological information was produced by using the remote sensing data in combination with the DEMs; (5) the existed landslides information obtained from remote sensing. To model the landslide hazard assessment using variety of statistic methods and evaluation methods, the cross application model yields reasonable results which can be applied for preliminary landslide hazard mapping and the hazard grade division.

Incorporating natural hazard assessments into municipal master-plans; case-studies from Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Oded

2010-05-01

The active Dead Sea Rift (DSR) runs along the length of Israel, making the entire state susceptible to earthquake-related hazards. Current building codes generally acknowledge seismic hazards and direct engineers towards earthquake-resistant structures. However, hazard mapping on a scale fit for municipal/governmental planning is subject to local initiative and is currently not mandatory as seems necessary. In the following, a few cases of seismic-hazard evaluation made by the Geological Survey of Israel are presented, emphasizing the reasons for their initiation and the way results were incorporated (or not). The first case is a seismic hazard qualitative micro-zonation invited by the municipality of Jerusalem as part of a new master plan. This work resulted in maps (1:50,000; GIS format) identifying areas prone to (1) amplification of seismic shaking due to site characteristics (outcrops of soft rocks or steep topography) and (2) sites with earthquake induced landslide (EILS) hazard. Results were validated using reports from the 1927, M=6.2 earthquake that originated along the DSR about 30km east of Jerusalem. Although the hazard maps were accepted by municipal authorities, practical use by geotechnical engineers working within the frame of the new master-plan was not significant. The main reason for that is apparently a difference of opinion between the city-engineers responsible for implementing the new master-plan and the geologists responsible of the hazard evaluation. The second case involves evaluation of EILS hazard for two towns located further north along the DSR, Zefat and Tiberias. Both were heavily damaged more than once by strong earthquakes in past centuries. Work was carried out as part of a governmental seismic-hazard reduction program. The results include maps (1:10,000 scales) of sites with high EILS hazard identified within city limits. Maps (in GIS format) were sent to city engineers with reports explaining the methods and results. As far as we know, widespread implementation of the maps within municipal master plans never came about, and there was no open discussion between city engineers and the Geological Survey. The main reasons apparently are (1) a lack, until recently, of mandatory building codes requiring incorporation of EILS hazard; (2) budget priorities; (3) failure to involve municipality personnel in planning and executing the EILS hazard evaluation. These cases demonstrate that for seismic hazard data to be incorporated and implemented within municipal master-plans there needs to be (1) active involvement of municipal officials and engineers from the early planning stages of the evaluation campaign, and (2) a-priori dedication of funds towards implementation of evaluation results.

Heterogeneous Data Fusion Methods for Disaster Risk Assessment using Grid Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, Nataliia; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii

2014-05-01

In recent years, a risk-oriented approach to manage disasters has been adopted. Risk is a function of two arguments: hazard probability and vulnerability [1]. In order to assess flood risk, for example, aggregation of heterogeneous data acquired from multiple sources is required. Outputs from hydrological and hydraulic models make it possible to predict floods; in situ observations such as river level and flows are used for early warning and models calibration. Remote sensing observations can be effectively used for rapid mapping in case of emergencies, and can be assimilated into models. One point that is mutual for all datasets is their geospatial nature. In order to enable operational assessment of disaster risk, appropriate technology is necessary. In this paper we discuss different strategies to heterogeneous data fusion and show their application in the domain of disaster monitoring and risk assessment. In particular, two case-studies are presented. The first one focuses on the use of time-series of satellite imagery to flood hazard mapping and flood risk assessment. Flooded areas are extracted from satellite images to generate a maximum flood extent image for each flood event. These maps are fused to determine relative frequency of inundation (RFI) [2]. The RFI values are compared to relative water depth generated from the LISFLOOD-FP model. The model is calibrated against the satellite-derived flood extent. The model with different combinations of Manning's parameters was run in the Grid environment at Space Research Institute NASU-SSAU [3], and the optimal set of parameters was found. It is shown that RFI and water depth exhibit the same probabilistic distribution which is confirmed by Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Therefore, it justifies the use of RFI values for risk assessment. The second case-study deals with quantitative estimation of drought risk in Ukraine based on satellite data. Drought hazard mapping is performed based on the use of vegetation health index (VHI) derived from NOAA satellites, and the extreme value theory techniques. Drought vulnerability is assessed by estimating the crop areas and crop yield to quantify potential impact of a drought on crop production. Finally, drought hazard and vulnerability maps are fused to derive a drought risk map. [1] N.N. Kussul, B.V. Sokolov, Y.I. Zyelyk, V.A. Zelentsov, S.V. Skakun, and A.Yu. Shelestov, "Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Heterogeneous Geospatial Information," J. of Autom. and Inf. Sci., 42(12), pp. 32-45, 2010. [2] S. Skakun, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, "Flood Hazard and Flood Risk Assessment Using a Time Series of Satellite Images: A Case Study in Namibia," Risk Analysis, 2013, doi: 10.1111/risa.12156. [3] L. Hluchy, N. Kussul, A. Shelestov, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, Y. Gripich, P. Kopp, E. Lupian, "The Data Fusion Grid Infrastructure: Project Objectives and Achievements," Computing and Informatics, vol. 29, no. 2, pp. 319-334, 2010.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Kivu rift segment based on a new seismotectonic zonation model (western branch, East African Rift system)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delvaux, Damien; Mulumba, Jean-Luc; Sebagenzi, Mwene Ntabwoba Stanislas; Bondo, Silvanos Fiama; Kervyn, François; Havenith, Hans-Balder

2017-10-01

In the frame of the Belgian GeoRisCA multi-risk assessment project focusing on the Kivu and northern Tanganyika rift region in Central Africa, a new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed for the Kivu rift segment in the central part of the western branch of the East African rift system. As the geological and tectonic setting of this region is incompletely known, especially the part lying in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we compiled homogeneous cross-border tectonic and neotectonic maps. The seismic risk assessment is based on a new earthquake catalogue based on the ISC reviewed earthquake catalogue and supplemented by other local catalogues and new macroseismic epicenter data spanning 126 years, with 1068 events. The magnitudes have been homogenized to Mw and aftershocks removed. The final catalogue used for the seismic hazard assessment spans 60 years, from 1955 to 2015, with 359 events and a magnitude of completeness of 4.4. The seismotectonic zonation into 7 seismic source areas was done on the basis of the regional geological structure, neotectonic fault systems, basin architecture and distribution of thermal springs and earthquake epicenters. The Gutenberg-Richter seismic hazard parameters were determined by the least square linear fit and the maximum likelihood method. Seismic hazard maps have been computed using existing attenuation laws with the Crisis 2012 software. We obtained higher PGA values (475 years return period) for the Kivu rift region than the previous estimates. They also vary laterally in function of the tectonic setting, with the lowest value in the volcanically active Virunga - Rutshuru zone, highest in the currently non-volcanic parts of Lake Kivu, Rusizi valley and North Tanganyika rift zone, and intermediate in the regions flanking the axial rift zone.

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both agencies and by FEMA. The results of the pilot study will help FEMA determine when tsunamis should be considered in mapping coastal hazards, how to predict their impact, how they should be mapped and possibly the construction standards for zones mapped as having a 1 percent or greater chance of suffering a tsunami.

Climate change induced lanslide hazard mapping over Greece- A case study in Pelion Mountain (SE Thessaly, Central Greece)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angelitsa, Varvara; Loupasakis, Constantinos; Anagnwstopoulou, Christina

2015-04-01

Landslides, as a major type of geological hazard, represent one of the natural events that occur most frequently worldwide after hydro-meteorological events. Landslides occur when the stability of a slope changes due to a number of factors, such as the steep terrain and prolonged precipitation. Identification of landslides and compilation of landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk maps are very important issues for the public authorities providing substantial information regarding, the strategic planning and management of the land-use. Although landslides cannot be predicted accurately, many attempts have been made to compile these maps. Important factors for the the compilation of reliable maps are the quality and the amount of available data and the selection of the best method for the analysis. Numerous studies and publications providing landslide susceptibility,hazard and risk maps, for different regions of Greece, have completed up to now. Their common characteristic is that they are static, taking into account parameters like geology, mean annual precipitaion, slope, aspect, distance from roads, faults and drainage network, soil capability, land use etc., without introducing the dimension of time. The current study focuses on the Pelion Mountain, which is located at the southeastern part of Thessaly in Central Greece; aiming to compile "dynamic" susceptibility and hazard maps depending on climate changes. For this purpose, past and future precipipation data from regional climate models (RCMs) datasets are introduced as input parameters for the compilation of "dynamic" landslide hazard maps. Moreover, land motion mapping data produced by Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) are used for the validation of the landslide occurrence during the period from June 1992 to December 2003 and as a result for the calibration of the mapping procedure. The PSI data can be applied at a regional scale as support for land motion mapping and at local scale for the monitoring of single well-known ground motion event. The PSI data were produced within the framework of the Terrafirma project. Terrafirma is a pan- European ground motion information service focused on seismic risk, flood defense and costal lowland subsidence,inactive mines and hydrogeological risks. The produced maps provided substantial information for the land use planning and the civil protection of an area presenting excelent natural beauty and numerous preservable trtaditional villages. Keywords: landslide, psi technique, regional climate models, lanslide susceptibility maps, Greece

Slope, Scarp and Sea Cliff Instability Susceptibility Mapping for Planning Regulations in Almada County, Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marques, Fernando; Queiroz, Sónia; Gouveia, Luís; Vasconcelos, Manuel

2017-12-01

In Portugal, the modifications introduced in 2008 and 2012 in the National Ecological Reserve law (REN) included the mandatory study of slope instability, including slopes, natural scarps, and sea cliffs, at municipal or regional scale, with the purpose of avoiding the use of hazardous zones with buildings and other structures. The law also indicates specific methods to perform these studies, with different approaches for slope instability, natural scarps and sea cliffs. The methods used to produce the maps required by REN law, with modifications and improvements to the law specified methods, were applied to the 71 km2 territory of Almada County, and included: 1) Slope instability mapping using the statistically based Information Value method validated with the landslide inventory using ROC curves, which provided an AAC=0.964, with the higher susceptibility zones which cover at least 80% of the landslides of the inventory to be included in REN map. The map was object of a generalization process to overcome the inconveniences of the use of a pixel based approach. 2) Natural scarp mapping including setback areas near the top, defined according to the law and setback areas near the toe defined by the application of the shadow angle calibrated with the major rockfalls which occurred in the study area; 3) Sea cliffs mapping including two levels of setback zones near the top, and one setback zone at the cliffs toe, which were based on systematic inventories of cliff failures occurred between 1947 and 2010 in a large scale regional littoral monitoring project. In the paper are described the methods used and the results obtained in this study, which correspond to the final maps of areas to include in REN. The results obtained in this study may be considered as an example of good practice of the municipal authorities in terms of solid, technical and scientifically supported regulation definitions, hazard prevention and safe and sustainable land use management.

Seismic hazard assessment of the cultural heritage sites: A case study in Cappadocia (Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyrek, Evren; Orhan, Ahmet; Dinçer, İsmail

2014-05-01

Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. In the last decade, over 50,000 residents lost their lives, commonly as a result of building failures in seismic events. The Cappadocia region is one of the most important touristic sites in Turkey. At the same time, the region has been included to the Word Heritage List by UNESCO at 1985 due to its natural, historical and cultural values. The region is undesirably affected by several environmental conditions, which are subjected in many previous studies. But, there are limited studies about the seismic evaluation of the region. Some of the important historical and cultural heritage sites are: Goreme Open Air Museum, Uchisar Castle, Ortahisar Castle, Derinkuyu Underground City and Ihlara Valley. According to seismic hazard zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement these heritage sites fall in Zone III, Zone IV and Zone V. This map show peak ground acceleration or 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years for bedrock. In this connection, seismic hazard assessment of these heritage sites has to be evaluated. In this study, seismic hazard calculations are performed both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with local site conditions. A catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is prepared and used in this study. The seismic sources have been identified for seismic hazard assessment based on geological, seismological and geophysical information. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at bed rock level is calculated for different seismic sources using available attenuation relationship formula applicable to Turkey. The result of the present study reveals that the seismic hazard at these sites is closely matching with the Seismic Zonation map published by the Ministry of Reconstruction and Settlement. Keywords: Seismic Hazard Assessment, Probabilistic Approach, Deterministic Approach, Historical Heritage, Cappadocia.

Participatory Mapping for Flood Disaster Zoning based on World View-2 Data in Long Beluah, North Kalimantan Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudaryatno; Awanda, Disyacitta; Eka Pratiwi, Sufiyana

2017-12-01

Flood is one of the most frequent disasters in Indonesia. These conditions cause the necessary efforts to reduce the impact of these hazards. To reduce the impact of these hazards is to understand spatially the impact of previous disasters. Participatory mapping is one of the solutions to be able to assist in reducing the impact of flood disaster by conducting flood zoning so it can be known the range of the flood. The community plays an important role in participatory mapping because the experiences and mental maps of the community are the main sources of information used. North Kalimantan Province has a very large watershed area that is in Kayan watershed, there are several villages, one of them is Long Beluah Village. Kayan watershed has a flood problem annually that affects most of the areas including the Long Beluah Village. This study aims to map the zoning of floods in the village of Long Beluah in a participatory manner using remote sensing World View-2 data within community, so that people also understand the conditions they face. The method for achieving that goal is participatory mapping which means community involvement as well as the ability of community mental maps that will make an important contribution in this research. The results of this study show that flood zoning can be mapped based on experience and community mental maps that the greatest floods in February 2015 inundated most of the community settlements in Long Beluah Village. There are few places from the uninhabited areas of settlements and serve as refugee camps. The participatory zonation map of the participatory floods is quite appropriate with the situation at the time of the greatest flood that hit the village of Long Beluah, so that through the map can be drawn up plans to reduce the impact of such disasters such as evacuation routes and a more strategic refuge point.

Multiple Natural Hazards Assessment and Comparison to Planned Land Use in an Andean Touristic Site within the Riskscape Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Andreas; Jaque Castillo, Edilia

2017-04-01

The Andes of central Chile are a natural environment characterized by multiple natural hazards (mass movements, volcanic hazards, seismic hazards, snow avalanches to name a few). The totality of these hazards, according to the notion of Müller-Mahn et al. an in relation to vulnerable entities, spans a riskscape. Spatial planning should take this riskscape into account in order to ensure a save an resilient regional development. However, as frequently observed in developing or newly developed countries, such precaution measures are only hardly realized. Spatial planing tends to be reactive to private inversion, opportunistic and frequently clientelistic. This results in spatial structures whose future development is vulnerable to natural disasters. The contribution analyses these circumstances within a riskscape in central Chile. Within the VIII. Region, close to the volcanic complex Nevados de Chillan, a touristic development around a Hotel for winter sports is established. However, the place is affected by a multitude of natural hazards. The contribution, on the basis of primary and secondary data, first provides hazard maps for several natural hazards. Secondly, the individual hazard maps are merged to an overall hazard map. This overall hazard map is related to the vulnerable entities to span a riskscape. The vulnerable entities are settlements, but also tourist infrastructures. Then, the contribution compares how a precautions spatial planning could have avoided putting vulnerable entities at risk, which spatial structure - especially regarding tourism - is actually found and which challenges for spatial development do exist. It reveals that the most important tourist infrastructures are found particularly at places, characterized by a high overall hazard. Furthermore, it will show that alternatives at economically equally attractive sites, but with a much smaller overall hazard, would have existed. It concludes by discussing possible reasons for this by considering the Chilean planning system.

New Approaches to Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Demonstrated in Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priest, G. R.; Rizzo, A.; Madin, I.; Lyles Smith, R.; Stimely, L.

2012-12-01

Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries and Oregon Emergency Management collaborated over the last four years to increase tsunami preparedness for residents and visitors to the Oregon coast. Utilizing support from the National Tsunami Hazards Mitigation Program (NTHMP), new approaches to outreach and tsunami hazard assessment were developed and then applied. Hazard assessment was approached by first doing two pilot studies aimed at calibrating theoretical models to direct observations of tsunami inundation gleaned from the historical and prehistoric (paleoseismic/paleotsunami) data. The results of these studies were then submitted to peer-reviewed journals and translated into 1:10,000-12,000-scale inundation maps. The inundation maps utilize a powerful new tsunami model, SELFE, developed by Joseph Zhang at the Oregon Health & Science University. SELFE uses unstructured computational grids and parallel processing technique to achieve fast accurate simulation of tsunami interactions with fine-scale coastal morphology. The inundation maps were simplified into tsunami evacuation zones accessed as map brochures and an interactive mapping portal at http://www.oregongeology.org/tsuclearinghouse/. Unique in the world are new evacuation maps that show separate evacuation zones for distant versus locally generated tsunamis. The brochure maps explain that evacuation time is four hours or more for distant tsunamis but 15-20 minutes for local tsunamis that are invariably accompanied by strong ground shaking. Since distant tsunamis occur much more frequently than local tsunamis, the two-zone maps avoid needless over evacuation (and expense) caused by one-zone maps. Inundation mapping for the entire Oregon coast will be complete by ~2014. Educational outreach was accomplished first by doing a pilot study to measure effectiveness of various approaches using before and after polling and then applying the most effective methods. In descending order, the most effective methods were: (1) door-to-door (person-to-person) education, (2) evacuation drills, (3) outreach to K-12 schools, (4) media events, and (5) workshops targeted to key audiences (lodging facilities, teachers, and local officials). Community organizers were hired to apply these five methods to clusters of small communities, measuring performance by before and after polling. Organizers were encouraged to approach the top priority, person-to-person education, by developing Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT) or CERT-like organizations in each community, thereby leaving behind a functioning volunteer-based group that will continue the outreach program and build long term resiliency. One of the most effective person-to-person educational tools was the Map Your Neighborhood program that brings people together so they can sketch the basic layout of their neighborhoods to depict key earthquake and tsunami hazards and mitigation solutions. The various person-to-person volunteer efforts and supporting outreach activities are knitting communities together and creating a permanent culture of tsunami and earthquake preparedness. All major Oregon coastal population centers will have been covered by this intensive outreach program by ~2014.

Population and business exposure to twenty scenario earthquakes in the State of Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan; Ratliff, Jamie

2011-01-01

This report documents the results of an initial analysis of population and business exposure to scenario earthquakes in Washington. This analysis was conducted to support the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pacific Northwest Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) and an ongoing collaboration between the State of Washington Emergency Management Division (WEMD) and the USGS on earthquake hazards and vulnerability topics. This report was developed to help WEMD meet internal planning needs. A subsequent report will provide analysis to the community level. The objective of this project was to use scenario ground-motion hazard maps to estimate population and business exposure to twenty Washington earthquakes. In consultation with the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program and the Washington Division of Geology and Natural Resources, the twenty scenario earthquakes were selected by WEMD (fig. 1). Hazard maps were then produced by the USGS and placed in the USGS ShakeMap archive.

Examples Not Numbers: Using Historical Events To Present Regional Hazard Information And Stimulate Client Thinking In The Insurance Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pile, J.; Switzer, A.; Gouramanis, C.; Rush, B.; Reynolds, I.; Ryrie, S.; Soria, L.

2013-12-01

Coastal hazards, including tsunami and storm surges, periodically affect many of the world's coasts. Re-insurers and insurance companies use a variety of means to understand and quantify the recurrence interval and risk of such events. Such work is done with the primary aim of placing monetary values on the risk. This collective understanding is often gleaned from the available scientific literature and commonly makes use of maps to delineate areas of risk that assist in communicating risk with clients. In this study we approached the problem of producing an integrated map of coastal hazards (storm and tsunami) for much of southeast Asia (including the Bay of Bengal and northern Australia). Initial analysis showed that assessments based on the short, partial and, for the most part, fragmentary documented history of past events in southeast Asia, would deem almost every coast on the map at high risk of coastal hazards at the regional scale. Although this may be true to a certain extent it would be unjust and unscientific to label entire coastlines 'high risk' as clearly particular sites on any coast are more susceptible to coastal hazards at the local scale. This raises the question: What is the best way to communicate risk at a regional scale without broad generalisations? Our recent collaboration with a major re-insurer lead to the creation of a new form of map (poster) for their clientele using a case study approach aimed at getting clients to think about the details of historical events in the context of localised risk. Using the pedagogical premise of 'Concept, Example, Consequence', we highlight risk in a way that will hopefully stimulate thought among practitioners and provide an alternative to the broad generalizations found in many products in the marketplace. The envisaged outcome is to enhance communication of site-specific risk assessments between stakeholders and encourage a better understanding of localised and regional risk.

Advances in Landslide Nowcasting: Evaluation of a Global and Regional Modeling Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia Bach; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Hong, Yang; Kumar, Sujay; Lerner-Lam, Arthur

2011-01-01

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of nowcasts that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.

Risk assessment of debris flow hazards in natural slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Junghae; Chae, Byung-gon; Liu, Kofei; Wu, Yinghsin

2016-04-01

The study area is located at north-east part of South Korea. Referring to the map of landslide sus-ceptibility (KIGAM, 2009) from Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM for short), there are large areas of potential landslide in high probability on slope land of mountain near the study area. Besides, recently some severe landslide-induced debris flow hazards occurred in this area. So this site is convinced to be prone to debris flow haz-ards. In order to mitigate the influence of hazards, the assessment of potential debris flow hazards is very important and essential. In this assessment, we use Debris-2D, debris flow numerical program, to assess the potential debris flow hazards. The worst scenario is considered for simulation. The input mass sources are determined using landslide susceptibility map. The water input is referred to the daily accumulative rainfall in the past debris flow event in study area. The only one input material property, i.e. yield stress, is obtained using calibration test. The simulation results show that the study area has po-tential to be impacted by debris flow. Therefore, based on simulation results, to mitigate debris flow hazards, we can propose countermeasures, including building check dams, constructing a protection wall in study area, and installing instruments for active monitoring of debris flow hazards. Acknowledgements:This research was supported by the Public Welfare & Safety Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (NRF-2012M3A2A1050983)

Tele-Operated Lunar Rover Navigation Using Lidar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pedersen, Liam; Allan, Mark B.; Utz, Hans, Heinrich; Deans, Matthew C.; Bouyssounouse, Xavier; Choi, Yoonhyuk; Fluckiger, Lorenzo; Lee, Susan Y.; To, Vinh; Loh, Jonathan;

Assessment of geo-environmental problems of the Zonguldak province (NW Turkey)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turer, D.; Nefeslioglu, H. A.; Zorlu, K.; Gokceoglu, C.

2008-09-01

The Zonguldak province is a coastal settlement area that has been suffering from serious natural and human-induced environmental problems sourced by its geology and geomorphology. Since the province locates at the heart of a coal-producing basin, the geo-environmental problems related to mining activities such as esthetic degradation, disposal of mining wastes and subsidence of the abandoned coal galleries are badly affecting every day life in Zonguldak province. Disposal of municipal wastes is also a big problem since only one municipality out of 32 has a sanitary disposal area. The rest of the municipalities dispose their solid wastes to rivers or to the sea. The province has also some health problems, which are pointed out in the literature, related to coal mining and geologic environment. These are cytogenetic damage in peripheral lymphocytes and pheumoconiosis (most commonly seen at coal workers), goiter and cancer. Landslides are the most important hazards in the area since 13% of the total surface of the Zonguldak is affected by landslides. In this study, considering the hazard potential special attention is given to deep landslides and using the stepwise forward conditional logistic regression technique, the landslide susceptibility map for the Zonguldak province is produced. The results showed that the most important independent variables governing the landslides are slope gradient, volcanic, and sedimentary rocks of Eocene and clastic and carbonate units of Cretaceous. The landslide map is used as a base map for the production of geo-hazard reconnaissance map on which areas subjected to other important geo-hazards (flood, earthquake and subsidence) are also shown to provide guidance for both existing settlement areas to take the necessary preventive measures and for new developing settlement areas to avoid the problematic areas.

Probabilistic and Scenario Seismic and Liquefaction Hazard Analysis of the Mississippi Embayment Incorporating Nonlinear Site Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, C. H.; Dhar, M. S.

2017-12-01

The influence of deep sediment deposits of the Mississippi Embayment (ME) on the propagation of seismic waves is poorly understood and remains a major source of uncertainty for site response analysis. Many researchers have studied the effects of these deposits on seismic hazard of the area using available information at the time. In this study, we have used updated and newly available resources for seismic and liquefaction hazard analyses of the ME. We have developed an improved 3D geological model. Additionally, we used surface geological maps from Cupples and Van Arsdale (2013) to prepare liquefaction hazard maps. Both equivalent linear and nonlinear site response codes were used to develop site amplification distributions for use in generating hazard maps. The site amplification distributions are created using the Monte Carlo approach of Cramer et al. (2004, 2006) on a 0.1-degree grid. The 2014 National Seismic Hazard model and attenuation relations (Petersen et al., 2014) are used to prepare seismic hazard maps. Then liquefaction hazard maps are generated using liquefaction probability curves from Holzer (2011) and Cramer et al. (2015). Equivalent linear response (w/ increased precision, restricted nonlinear behavior with depth) shows similar hazard for the ME compared to nonlinear analysis (w/o pore pressure) results. At short periods nonlinear deamplification dominates the hazard, but at long periods resonance amplification dominates. The liquefaction hazard tends to be high in Holocene and late Pleistocene lowland sediments, even with lowered ground water levels, and low in Pleistocene loess of the uplands. Considering pore pressure effects in nonlinear site response analysis at a test site on the lowlands shows amplification of ground motion at short periods. PGA estimates from ME liquefaction and MMI observations are in the 0.25 to 0.4 g range. Our estimated M7.5 PGA hazard within 10 km of the fault can exceed this. Ground motion observations from liquefaction sites in New Zealand and Japan support PGAs below 0.4 g, except at sites within 20 km exhibiting pore-pressure induced acceleration spikes due to cyclic mobility where PGA ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 g. This study is being extended to more detailed seismic and liquefaction hazard studies in five western Tennessee counties under a five year grant from HUD.

Slope Stability Analysis for Shallow Landslides using TRIGRS: A Case Study for Sta. Cruz, Zambales, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, J. P. A.

2016-12-01

The Philippines, being located in the circum-Pacific, bounded by multiple subduction zones, open seas and ocean, is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the world (Benson, 1997). This widespread recurrence of natural hazards in the country requires much attention for disaster management (Aurelio, 2006). On the average, 21 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually with 6-9 making a landfall. Several rainfall-induced landslide events are reported annually particularly during and after the inundation of major typhoons which imposes hazards to communities and causes destruction of properties due to the moving mass and possible flash floods it may induce. Shallow landslides are the most commonly observed failure involving soil-mantled slopes and are considered major geohazards, often causing property damage and other economic loss. Hence numerous studies on landslide susceptibility including numerical models based on infinite slope equation are used in order to identify slopes prone to occurrences of shallow landslides. The study aims to determine the relationships between the slope and elevation to the factor of safety for laterite-mantled topography by incorporating precipitation values in the determination of landslide susceptibility. Using a DEM, flow direction map and slope map of the Sta Cruz (Zambales, Philippines), the FORTRAN based program TRIGRS, was used to generate the values for the factors of safety in the study area. Overlays with a generated slope map and elevation map were used to determine relationships of the mentioned factors and the factors of safety. A slope in a topography mantled with lateritic soil will fail at a slope angle higher than 20 degrees. Generally, the factor of safety decreases as the slope angle increases; this increases the probability and risk of slope failure. Elevation has no bearing on the computation for the factor of safety. The factor of safety is heavily dependent on the slope angle. The value of generated factor of safety coincides with the published geohazard map from Mines and Geosciences Bureau(MGB).

Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

2017-12-01

Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located within a 100 km radius of the volcanic field center point. The infrastructure map and eruption scenarios will be used to identify infrastructure and resources with the greatest exposure in the event of future eruptions at the Bishoftu Volcanic Field.

Study on the Distribution of Geological Hazards Based on Fractal Characteristics - a Case Study of Dachuan District

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, X.; Liu, H.; Yao, K.; Wei, Y.

2018-04-01

It is a complicated process to analyze the cause of geological hazard. Through the analysis function of GIS software, 250 landslides were randomly selected from 395 landslide hazards in the study area, superimposed with the types of landforms, annual rainfall and vegetation coverage respectively. It used box dimension method of fractal dimension theory to study the fractal characteristics of spatial distribution of landslide disasters in Dachuan district, and analyse the statistical results. Research findings showed that the The fractal dimension of the landslides in the Dachuan area is 0.9114, the correlation coefficient is 0.9627, and it has high autocorrelation. Zoning statistics according to various natural factors, the fractal dimension between landslide hazard points and deep hill, middle hill area is strong as well as the area whose average annual rainfall is 1050 mm-1250 mm and vegetation coverage is 30 %-60 %. Superposition of the potential hazard distribution map of single influence factors to get the potential hazard zoning of landslides in the area. Verifying the potential hazard zoning map of the potential landslides with 145 remaining disaster points, among them, there are 74 landslide hazard points in high risk area, accounting for 51.03 % of the total. There are 59 landslides in the middle risk area, accounting for 40.69 % of the total, and 12 in the low risk area, accounting for 8.28 % of the total. The matching degree of the verifying result and the potential hazard zoning is high. Therefore, the fractal dimension value divided the degree of geological disaster susceptibility can be described the influence degree of each influence factor to geological disaster point more intuitively, it also can divide potential disaster risk areas and provide visual data support for effective management of geological disasters.

Lava inundation zone maps for Mauna Loa, Island of Hawaiʻi, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trusdell, Frank A.; Zoeller, Michael H.

2017-10-12

Lava flows from Mauna Loa volcano, on the Island of Hawaiʻi, constitute a significant hazard to people and property. This report addresses those lava flow hazards, mapping 18 potential lava inundation zones on the island.

Seismic-hazard maps and time histories for the commonwealth of Kentucky.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

The ground-motion hazard maps and time histories for three earthquake scenarios, expected earthquakes, probable earthquakes, and maximum credible earthquakes on the free surface in hard rock (shear-wave velocity >1,500 m/s), were derived using the de...

Analysis of tsunami disaster map by Geographic Information System (GIS): Aceh Singkil-Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farhan, A.; Akhyar, H.

2017-02-01

Tsunami risk map is used by stakeholder as a base to decide evacuation plan and evaluates from disaster. Aceh Singkil district of Aceh- Indonesia’s disaster maps have been developed and analyzed by using GIS tool. Overlay methods through algorithms are used to produce hazard map, vulnerability, capacity and finally created disaster risk map. Spatial maps are used topographic maps, administrative map, SRTM. The parameters are social, economic, physical environmental vulnerability, a level of exposed people, parameters of houses, public building, critical facilities, productive land, population density, sex ratio, poor ratio, disability ratio, age group ratio, the protected forest, natural forest, and mangrove forest. The results show high-risk tsunami disaster at nine villages; moderate levels are seventeen villages, and other villages are shown in the low level of tsunami risk disaster.

History of Modern Earthquake Hazard Mapping and Assessment in California Using a Deterministic or Scenario Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mualchin, Lalliana

2011-03-01

Modern earthquake ground motion hazard mapping in California began following the 1971 San Fernando earthquake in the Los Angeles metropolitan area of southern California. Earthquake hazard assessment followed a traditional approach, later called Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA) in order to distinguish it from the newer Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA). In DSHA, seismic hazard in the event of the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) magnitude from each of the known seismogenic faults within and near the state are assessed. The likely occurrence of the MCE has been assumed qualitatively by using late Quaternary and younger faults that are presumed to be seismogenic, but not when or within what time intervals MCE may occur. MCE is the largest or upper-bound potential earthquake in moment magnitude, and it supersedes and automatically considers all other possible earthquakes on that fault. That moment magnitude is used for estimating ground motions by applying it to empirical attenuation relationships, and for calculating ground motions as in neo-DSHA (Z uccolo et al., 2008). The first deterministic California earthquake hazard map was published in 1974 by the California Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) which has been called the California Geological Survey (CGS) since 2002, using the best available fault information and ground motion attenuation relationships at that time. The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) later assumed responsibility for printing the refined and updated peak acceleration contour maps which were heavily utilized by geologists, seismologists, and engineers for many years. Some engineers involved in the siting process of large important projects, for example, dams and nuclear power plants, continued to challenge the map(s). The second edition map was completed in 1985 incorporating more faults, improving MCE's estimation method, and using new ground motion attenuation relationships from the latest published results at that time. CDMG eventually published the second edition map in 1992 following the Governor's Board of Inquiry on the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and at the demand of Caltrans. The third edition map was published by Caltrans in 1996 utilizing GIS technology to manage data that includes a simplified three-dimension geometry of faults and to facilitate efficient corrections and revisions of data and the map. The spatial relationship of fault hazards with highways, bridges or any other attribute can be efficiently managed and analyzed now in GIS at Caltrans. There has been great confidence in using DSHA in bridge engineering and other applications in California, and it can be confidently applied in any other earthquake-prone region. Earthquake hazards defined by DSHA are: (1) transparent and stable with robust MCE moment magnitudes; (2) flexible in their application to design considerations; (3) can easily incorporate advances in ground motion simulations; and (4) economical. DSHA and neo-DSHA have the same approach and applicability. The accuracy of DSHA has proven to be quite reasonable for practical applications within engineering design and always done with professional judgment. In the final analysis, DSHA is a reality-check for public safety and PSHA results. Although PSHA has been acclaimed as a better approach for seismic hazard assessment, it is DSHA, not PSHA, that has actually been used in seismic hazard assessment for building and bridge engineering, particularly in California.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

Mapping spatial patterns of people's risk perception of landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kofler, Christian; Pedoth, Lydia; Elzbieta Stawinoga, Agnieszka; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2016-04-01

The resilience of communities against natural hazards is largely influenced by how the individuals perceive risk. A good understanding of people's risk perception, awareness and hazard knowledge is crucial for developing and improving risk management and communication strategies between authorities and the affected population. A lot of research has been done in investigating the social aspects of risks to natural hazards by means of interviews or questionnaires. However, there is still a lack of research in the investigation of the influence of the spatial distance to a hazard event on peoples risk perception. While the spatial dimension of a natural hazard event is always assessed in works with a natural science approach, it is often neglected in works on social aspects of natural hazards. In the present study, we aimed to overcome these gaps by combining methods from different disciplines and assessing and mapping the spatial pattern of risk perception through multivariate statistical approaches based on empirical data from questionnaires. We will present results from a case study carried out in Badia, located in the Province of South Tyrol- Italy, where in December 2012 a landslide destroyed four residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 36 people. By means of questionnaires distributed to all adults living in the case study area we assessed people's risk perception and asked respondents to allocate their place of residence on a map of the case study area subdivided in 7 zones. Based on the data of the questionnaire results we developed a risk perception factor in order to express various assessed aspects linked to risk perception with one metric. We analyzed and mapped this factor according to the different zones reflecting the spatial distance to the event. Furthermore, a cluster analysis identified various risk behavior profiles within the population. We also investigated the spatial patterns of these risk profiles. We revealed that the residential zone in the immediate proximity to the landslide event showed significantly different results than all other zones. Though we have been able to observe spatial patterns of our developed metrics that changed significantly with geographic distance, our results led to the assumption that risk perception cannot be expressed in units of length. The appropriate spatial unit rather seems to be "immediate proximity" to the event. The results of our study can support response forces and authorities in planning and adopting different communication and management strategies tailored to different groups of affected persons.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-01

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationshipsmore » for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.« less

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pailoplee, Santi; Charusiri, Punya

2016-06-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters ( a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis.

PubMed

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

PubMed Central

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-01-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

2014-03-01

GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty-sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2012-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2014-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity, as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out by the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all of these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publication dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to a fiscal year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2011-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. Only published papers and maps are included here; numerous abstracts presented at scientific meetings are omitted. Publications dates are based on year of issue, with no attempt to assign them to fiscal year.

Publications of Volcano Hazards Program 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2001-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 1997

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

1998-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geologic and Water Resources Divisions of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

2015-04-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs)

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thio, H. K.; Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Polet, J.

2006-12-01

The recent tsunami disaster caused by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has focused our attention to the hazard posed by large earthquakes that occur under water, in particular subduction zone earthquakes, and the tsunamis that they generate. Even though these kinds of events are rare, the very large loss of life and material destruction caused by this earthquake warrant a significant effort towards the mitigation of the tsunami hazard. For ground motion hazard, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) has become a standard practice in the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard to populations in particular with respect to structures, infrastructure and lifelines. Its ability to condense the complexities and variability of seismic activity into a manageable set of parameters greatly facilitates the design of effective seismic resistant buildings but also the planning of infrastructure projects. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) achieves the same goal for hazards posed by tsunami. There are great advantages of implementing such a method to evaluate the total risk (seismic and tsunami) to coastal communities. The method that we have developed is based on the traditional PSHA and therefore completely consistent with standard seismic practice. Because of the strong dependence of tsunami wave heights on bathymetry, we use a full waveform tsunami waveform computation in lieu of attenuation relations that are common in PSHA. By pre-computing and storing the tsunami waveforms at points along the coast generated for sets of subfaults that comprise larger earthquake faults, we can efficiently synthesize tsunami waveforms for any slip distribution on those faults by summing the individual subfault tsunami waveforms (weighted by their slip). This efficiency make it feasible to use Green's function summation in lieu of attenuation relations to provide very accurate estimates of tsunami height for probabilistic calculations, where one typically computes thousands of earthquake scenarios. We have carried out preliminary tsunami hazard calculations for different return periods for western North America and Hawaii based on thousands of earthquake scenarios around the Pacific rim and along the coast of North America. We will present tsunami hazard maps for several return periods and also discuss how to use these results for probabilistic inundation and runup mapping. Our knowledge of certain types of tsunami sources is very limited (e.g. submarine landslides), but a probabilistic framework for tsunami hazard evaluation can include even such sources and their uncertainties and present the overall hazard in a meaningful and consistent way.

Multi-criteria analysis for the detection of the most critical European UNESCO Heritage sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valagussa, Andrea; Frattini, Paolo; Berta, Nadia; Spizzichino, Daniele; Leoni, Gabriele; Margottini, Claudio; Battista Crosta, Giovanni

2017-04-01

A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis has been implemented to identify and to rank the most critical UNESCO Heritage sites at the European scale in the context of PROTHEGO JPI-Project. Two multi-criteria methods have been tested and applied to more than 300 European UNESCO Sites. First, the Analytic Hierarchy Procedure (AHP) was applied to the data of the UNESCO Periodic Report, in relation to 13 natural hazards that have affected or can potentially affect the Heritage sites. According to these reports, 22% of sites are without any documented hazard and 70% of the sites have at least one hazard affecting the site. The most important hazards on the European country are: fire (wildfire), storm, flooding, earthquake and erosion. For each UNESCO site, the potential risk was calculated as a weighed sum of the hazards that affect the site. The weighs of the 13 hazards were obtained by AHP procedure, which is a technique for multi-attribute decision making that enables the decomposition of a problem into hierarchy, based on the opinion of different experts about the dominance of risks. The weights are obtained by rescaling between 0 and 1 the eigenvectors relative to the maximum eigenvalue for the matrix of the coefficients. The internal coherence of the expert's attributions is defined through the calculation of the consistency ratio (Saaty, 1990). The result of the AHP method consists in a map of the UNESCO sites ranked according to the potential risk, where the site most at risk results to be the Geirangerfjord and Nærøyfjord in Norway. However, the quality of these results lies in the reliability of the Period Reports, which are produced by different experts with unknown level of scientific background. To test the reliability of these results, a comparison of the information of the periodic reports with available high-quality datasets (earthquake, volcano and landslide) at the Italian scale has been performed. Sites properly classified by the Period Reports range from 65% (earthquake hazard) to 98% (volcano hazard), with a high underestimation of landslide hazard. Due to this high value of uncertainty, we developed a new methodology to identify and to rank the most critical UNESCO Heritage sites on the basis of three natural hazards (landslide, earthquake, and volcano) for which reliable European-scale hazard maps are available. For each UNESCO site, a potential risk was calculated as the product of hazard (from the available maps) and potential vulnerability. The latter is obtained considering the typology of site (e.g. monument, cultural landscape, and cultural road), the presence or absence of resident and/or tourist, the position of the site (underground/over-ground). Through this methodology, a new ranking of the European UNESCO Sites has been obtained. In this ranking, the historic center of Naples results to be the most-at-danger site of the European continent.

Comparison of landslide hazard and risk assessment practices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O.

2012-04-01

An overview is made of the landslide hazard and risk assessment practices that are officially promoted or applied in Europe by administration offices, geological surveys, and decision makers (recommendations, regulations and codes). The reported countries are: Andorra, Austria, France, Italy (selected river basins), Romania, Spain (Catalonia), Switzerland and United Kingdom. The objective here was to compare the different practices for hazard and risk evaluation with respect to the official policies, the methodologies used (qualitative and quantitative), the provided outputs and their contents, and the terminology and map symbols used. The main observations made are illustrated with examples and the possibility of harmonization of the policies and the application of common practices to bridge the existing gaps is discussed. Some of the conclusions reached include the following: zoning maps are legally binding for public administrators and land owners only in some cases and generally when referring to site-specific or local scales rather than regional or national ones; so far, information is mainly provided on landslide susceptibility and hazard and risk assessment is performed only in a few countries; there is a variation in the use of scales between countries; the classification criteria for landslide types and mechanisms present large diversity even within the same country (in some cases no landslide mechanisms are specified while in others there is an exhaustive list); the techniques to obtain input data for the landslide inventory and susceptibility maps vary from basic to sophisticated, resulting in various levels of data quality and quantity; the procedures followed for hazard and risk assessment include analytical procedures supported by computer simulation, weighted-indicators, expert judgment and field survey-based, or a combination of all; there is an important variation between hazard and risk matrices with respect to the used parameters, the thresholds defining the different hazard or risk levels and the number and physical interpretation of the latter. In this context suggestions are made to bridge the gaps between the practices and to enhance homogenization of the hazard and risk assessment procedures and of their outputs. This work is presented within the framework of the SafeLand project funded by the European Commission's FP7 programme.

Global climate change and local land subsidence exacerbate inundation risk to the San Francisco Bay Area

PubMed Central

Shirzaei, Manoochehr; Bürgmann, Roland

2018-01-01

The current global projections of future sea level rise are the basis for developing inundation hazard maps. However, contributions from spatially variable coastal subsidence have generally not been considered in these projections. We use synthetic aperture radar interferometric measurements and global navigation satellite system data to show subsidence rates of less than 2 mm/year along most of the coastal areas along San Francisco Bay. However, rates exceed 10 mm/year in some areas underlain by compacting artificial landfill and Holocene mud deposits. The maps estimating 100-year inundation hazards solely based on the projection of sea level rise from various emission scenarios underestimate the area at risk of flooding by 3.7 to 90.9%, compared with revised maps that account for the contribution of local land subsidence. Given ongoing land subsidence, we project that an area of 125 to 429 km2 will be vulnerable to inundation, as opposed to 51 to 413 km2 considering sea level rise alone. PMID:29536042

Mapping Urban Risk: Flood Hazards, Race, & Environmental Justice In New York”

PubMed Central

Maantay, Juliana; Maroko, Andrew

2009-01-01

This paper demonstrates the importance of disaggregating population data aggregated by census tracts or other units, for more realistic population distribution/location. A newly-developed mapping method, the Cadastral-based Expert Dasymetric System (CEDS), calculates population in hyper-heterogeneous urban areas better than traditional mapping techniques. A case study estimating population potentially impacted by flood hazard in New York City compares the impacted population determined by CEDS with that derived by centroid-containment method and filtered areal weighting interpolation. Compared to CEDS, 37 percent and 72 percent fewer people are estimated to be at risk from floods city-wide, using conventional areal weighting of census data, and centroid-containment selection, respectively. Undercounting of impacted population could have serious implications for emergency management and disaster planning. Ethnic/racial populations are also spatially disaggregated to determine any environmental justice impacts with flood risk. Minorities are disproportionately undercounted using traditional methods. Underestimating more vulnerable sub-populations impairs preparedness and relief efforts. PMID:20047020

An index-based method to assess risks of climate-related hazards in coastal zones: The case of Tetouan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satta, Alessio; Snoussi, Maria; Puddu, Manuela; Flayou, Latifa; Hout, Radouane

2016-06-01

The regional risk assessment carried out within the ClimVar & ICZM Project identified the coastal zone of Tetouan as a hotspot of the Mediterranean Moroccan coast and so it was chosen for the application of the Multi-Scale Coastal Risk Index for Local Scale (CRI-LS). The local scale approach provides a useful tool for local coastal planning and management by exploring the effects and the extensions of the hazards and combining hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables in order to identify areas where the risk is relatively high. The coast of Tetouan is one of the coastal areas that have been most rapidly and densely urbanized in Morocco and it is characterized by an erosive shoreline. Local authorities are facing the complex task of balancing development and managing coastal risks, especially coastal erosion and flooding, and then be prepared to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. The first phase of the application of the CRI-LS methodology to Tetouan consisted of defining the coastal hazard zone, which results from the overlaying of the erosion hazard zone and the flooding hazard zone. Nineteen variables were chosen to describe the Hazards, Vulnerability and Exposure factors. The scores corresponding to each variable were calculated and the weights assigned through an expert judgement elicitation. The resulting values are hosted in a geographic information system (GIS) platform that enables the individual variables and aggregated risk scores to be color-coded and mapped across the coastal hazard zone. The results indicated that 10% and 27% of investigated littoral fall under respectively very high and high vulnerability because of combination of high erosion rates with high capital land use. The risk map showed that some areas, especially the flood plains of Restinga, Smir and Martil-Alila, with distances over 5 km from the coast, are characterized by high levels of risk due to the low topography of the flood plains and to the high values of exposure. The CRI-LS provides a set of maps that allow identifying areas within the coastal hazard zone with relative higher risk from climate-related hazards. The method can be used to support coastal planning and management process in selecting the most suitable adaptation measures.

Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

1990-07-01

Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

Developing Daily Quantitative Damage Estimates From Geospatial Layers To Support Post Event Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woods, B. K.; Wei, L. H.; Connor, T. C.

2014-12-01

With the growth of natural hazard data available in near real-time it is increasingly feasible to deliver damage estimates caused by natural disasters. These estimates can be used in disaster management setting or by commercial entities to optimize the deployment of resources and/or routing of goods and materials. This work outlines an end-to-end, modular process to generate estimates of damage caused by severe weather. The processing stream consists of five generic components: 1) Hazard modules that provide quantitate data layers for each peril. 2) Standardized methods to map the hazard data to an exposure layer based on atomic geospatial blocks. 3) Peril-specific damage functions that compute damage metrics at the atomic geospatial block level. 4) Standardized data aggregators, which map damage to user-specific geometries. 5) Data dissemination modules, which provide resulting damage estimates in a variety of output forms. This presentation provides a description of this generic tool set, and an illustrated example using HWRF-based hazard data for Hurricane Arthur (2014). In this example, the Python-based real-time processing ingests GRIB2 output from the HWRF numerical model, dynamically downscales it in conjunctions with a land cover database using a multiprocessing pool, and a just-in-time compiler (JIT). The resulting wind fields are contoured, and ingested into a PostGIS database using OGR. Finally, the damage estimates are calculated at the atomic block level and aggregated to user-defined regions using PostgreSQL queries to construct application specific tabular and graphics output.

Performance of USGS one-year earthquake hazard map for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S.; Spencer, B. D.; Salditch, L.; Petersen, M. D.; McNamara, D. E.

2017-12-01

Seismicity in the central United States has dramatically increased since 2008 due to the injection of wastewater produced by oil and gas extraction. In response, the USGS created a one-year probabilistic hazard model and map for 2016 to describe the increased hazard posed to the central and eastern United States. Using the intensity of shaking reported to the "Did You Feel It?" system during 2016, we assess the performance of this model. Assessing the performance of earthquake hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity is conceptually similar but has practical differences. Maps that have return periods of hundreds or thousands of years— as commonly used for natural seismicity— can be assessed using historical intensity data that also span hundreds or thousands of years. Several different features stand out when assessing the USGS 2016 seismic hazard model for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes. First, the model can be assessed as a forecast in one year, because event rates are sufficiently high to permit evaluation with one year of data. Second, because these models are projections from the previous year thus implicitly assuming that fluid injection rates remain the same, misfit may reflect changes in human activity. Our results suggest that the model was very successful by the metric implicit in probabilistic hazard seismic assessment: namely, that the fraction of sites at which the maximum shaking exceeded the mapped value is comparable to that expected. The model also did well by a misfit metric that compares the spatial patterns of predicted and maximum observed shaking. This was true for both the central and eastern United States as a whole, and for the region within it with the highest amount of seismicity, Oklahoma and its surrounding area. The model performed least well in northern Texas, over-stating hazard, presumably because lower oil and gas prices and regulatory action reduced the water injection volume relative to the previous year. These results imply that such hazard maps have the potential to be valuable tools for policy makers and regulators in managing the seismic risks associated with unconventional oil and gas production.

Geologic map of the southern White Ledge Peak and Matilija quadrangles, Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Minor, Scott A.; Brandt, Theodore R.

2015-01-01

A principal aim of the new mapping and associated fault-kinematic measurements is to document and constrain the nature of transpressional strain transfer between various regional, potentially seismogenic faults. In the accompanying pamphlet, surficial and bedrock map units are described in detail as well as a summary of the structural and fault-kinematic framework of the map area. New biostratigraphic and biochronologic data based on microfossil identifications are presented in expanded unit descriptions of the marine Neogene Monterey and Sisquoc Formations. Site-specific fault kinematic observations are embedded in the digital map database. This compilation provides a uniform geologic digital geodatabase and map plot files that can be used for visualization, analysis, and interpretation of the area’s geology, geologic hazards, and natural resources.

Mass Movement Susceptibility Mapping Using Satellite Optical Imagery Compared With INSAR Monitoring: Zigui County, Three Gorges Region, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kincal, Cem; Singleton, Andrew; Liu, Peng; Li, Zhenhong; Drummond, Jane; Hoey, Trevor; Muller, Jan-Peter; Qu, Wei; Zeng, Qiming; Zhang, Jingfa; Du, Peijun

2010-10-01

Mass movements on steep slopes are a major hazard to communities and infrastructure in the Three Gorges region, China. Developing susceptibility maps of mass movements is therefore very important in both current and future land use planning. This study employed satellite optical imagery and an ASTER GDEM (15 m) to derive various parameters (namely geology; slope gradient; proximity to drainage networks and proximity to lineaments) in order to create a GIS-based map of mass movement susceptibility. This map was then evaluated using highly accurate deformation signals processed using the Persistent Scatterer (PS) InSAR technique. Areas of high susceptibility correspond well to points of high subsidence, which provides a strong support of our susceptibility map.

Assessing the Impacts of Flooding Caused by Extreme Rainfall Events Through a Combined Geospatial and Numerical Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santillan, J. R.; Amora, A. M.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.; Cutamora, L. C.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano, R. M.

2016-06-01

In this paper, we present a combined geospatial and two dimensional (2D) flood modeling approach to assess the impacts of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. We developed and implemented this approach to the Tago River Basin in the province of Surigao del Sur in Mindanao, Philippines, an area which suffered great damage due to flooding caused by Tropical Storms Lingling and Jangmi in the year 2014. The geospatial component of the approach involves extraction of several layers of information such as detailed topography/terrain, man-made features (buildings, roads, bridges) from 1-m spatial resolution LiDAR Digital Surface and Terrain Models (DTM/DSMs), and recent land-cover from Landsat 7 ETM+ and Landsat 8 OLI images. We then used these layers as inputs in developing a Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC HMS)-based hydrologic model, and a hydraulic model based on the 2D module of the latest version of HEC River Analysis System (RAS) to dynamically simulate and map the depth and extent of flooding due to extreme rainfall events. The extreme rainfall events used in the simulation represent 6 hypothetical rainfall events with return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. For each event, maximum flood depth maps were generated from the simulations, and these maps were further transformed into hazard maps by categorizing the flood depth into low, medium and high hazard levels. Using both the flood hazard maps and the layers of information extracted from remotely-sensed datasets in spatial overlay analysis, we were then able to estimate and assess the impacts of these flooding events to buildings, roads, bridges and landcover. Results of the assessments revealed increase in number of buildings, roads and bridges; and increase in areas of land-cover exposed to various flood hazards as rainfall events become more extreme. The wealth of information generated from the flood impact assessment using the approach can be very useful to the local government units and the concerned communities within Tago River Basin as an aid in determining in an advance manner all those infrastructures (buildings, roads and bridges) and land-cover that can be affected by different extreme rainfall event flood scenarios.

How do Japanese escape from TSUNAMI? - Disaster Prevention Education through using Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakaue, Hiroaki

2013-04-01

After the disaster of the earthquake and tsunami in Tohoku, Japan in 2011, it is necessary to teach more "Disaster Prevention" in school. The government guideline for education of high school geography students emphasizes improving students' awareness of disaster prevention through acquiring geographical skills, for example reading hazard and thematic maps. The working group of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) says that the purpose of Disaster Prevention Education is to develop the following competencies: 1. To acquire knowledge about disasters in the local area and the science of disaster prevention. 2. To teach individuals to protect themselves from natural hazards. 3. To safely support other people in the local area. 4. To build a safe society during rebuilding from the disasters. "Disaster Prevention Education" is part of the "Education for Sustainable Development" (ESD) curriculum. That is, teaching disaster prevention can contribute to developing abilities for sustainable development and building a sustainable society. I have tried to develop a high school geography class about "tsunami". The aim of this class is to develop the students' competencies to acquire the knowledge about tsunami and protect themselves from it through reading a hazard map. I especially think that in geography class, students can protect themselves from disasters through learning the risks of disasters and how to escape when disasters occur. In the first part of class, I have taught the mechanism of tsunami formation and where tsunamis occur in Japan. In the second part of class, I have shown students pictures that I had taken in Tohoku, for instance Ishinomaki-City, Minamisanriku-Town, Kesen'numa-City, and taught how to read hazard maps that show where safe and dangerous places are when natural hazards occur. I think that students can understand the features of the local area and how to escape from disasters that may occur in local area by learning a hazard map. I have used a comment paper to evaluate the following competencies: 1. Students can understand the mechanism of tsunami formation and its potential for damage. 2. Students can read the hazard map. 3. Students can explain or describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In conclusion, many students could read hazard maps and describe a detailed plan for disaster prevention. In other words, through developing mapping skills, geography students can contribute to developing abilities for Disaster Prevention Education and building a sustainable society. Disaster Prevention Education has many requirements. For example, the MEXT working group says that Disaster Prevention Education teaching should not only deliver knowledge but also develop students' problem solving competency, and that it is important to incorporate this education within each subject area in the school.

Rapid Offline-Online Post-Disaster Landslide Mapping Tool: A case study from Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Sudmeier-Rieux, Karen; Derron, Marc-Henri; Devkota, Sanjaya

2016-04-01

One of the crucial components of post disaster management is the efficient mapping of impacted areas. Here we present a tool designed to map landslides and affected objects after the earthquakes of 2015 in Nepal as well as for intense rainfall impact. Because internet is not available in many rural areas of Nepal, we developed an offline-online prototype based on Open-Source WebGIS technologies to make data on hazard impacts, including damaged infrastructure, landslides or flooding events available to authorities and the general public. This mobile application was designed as a low-cost, rapid and participatory method for recording impacts from hazard events. It is possible to record such events offline and upload them through a server, where internet connection is available. This application allows user authentication, image capturing, and information collation such as geolocation, event description, interactive mapping and finally storing all the data in the server for further analysis and visualisation. This application can be accessed by a mobile phone (Android) or a tablet as a hybrid version for both offline and online versions. The offline version has an interactive-offline map function which allows users to upload satellites image in order to improve ground truthing interpretation. After geolocation, the user can start mapping and then save recorded data into Geojson-TXT files that can be easily uploaded to the server whenever internet is available. This prototype was tested specifically for a rapid assessment of landslides and relevant land use characteristics such as roads, forest area, rivers in the Phewa Lake watershed near Pokhara, Nepal where a large number landslides were activated or reactivated after the 2015 monsoon season. More than 60 landslides were recorded during two days of field trip. Besides, it is possible to use this application for any other kind of hazard event like flood, avalanche, etc. Keywords: Offline, Online, Open source, WebGIS, Android, Post-Disaster, Landslide mapping

New Activities of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Eble, M. C.

2013-12-01

The U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is comprised of representatives from coastal states and federal agencies who, under the guidance of NOAA, work together to develop protocols and products to help communities prepare for and mitigate tsunami hazards. Within the NTHMP are several subcommittees responsible for complimentary aspects of tsunami assessment, mitigation, education, warning, and response. The Mapping and Modeling Subcommittee (MMS) is comprised of state and federal scientists who specialize in tsunami source characterization, numerical tsunami modeling, inundation map production, and warning forecasting. Until September 2012, much of the work of the MMS was authorized through the Tsunami Warning and Education Act, an Act that has since expired but the spirit of which is being adhered to in parallel with reauthorization efforts. Over the past several years, the MMS has developed guidance and best practices for states and territories to produce accurate and consistent tsunami inundation maps for community level evacuation planning, and has conducted benchmarking of numerical inundation models. Recent tsunami events have highlighted the need for other types of tsunami hazard analyses and products for improving evacuation planning, vertical evacuation, maritime planning, land-use planning, building construction, and warning forecasts. As the program responsible for producing accurate and consistent tsunami products nationally, the NTHMP-MMS is initiating a multi-year plan to accomplish the following: 1) Create and build on existing demonstration projects that explore new tsunami hazard analysis techniques and products, such as maps identifying areas of strong currents and potential damage within harbors as well as probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for land-use planning. 2) Develop benchmarks for validating new numerical modeling techniques related to current velocities and landslide sources. 3) Generate guidance and protocols for the production and use of new tsunami hazard analysis products. 4) Identify multistate collaborations and funding partners interested in these new products. Application of these new products will improve the overall safety and resilience of coastal communities exposed to tsunami hazards.

Scenario based tsunami wave height estimation towards hazard evaluation for the Hellenic coastline and examples of extreme inundation zones in South Aegean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melis, Nikolaos S.; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Frentzos, Elias; Krassanakis, Vassilios

2016-04-01

A scenario based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment is used, by incorporating earthquake sources with the potential to produce extreme tsunamis (measured through their capacity to cause maximum wave height and inundation extent). In the present study we follow a two phase approach. In the first phase, existing earthquake hazard zoning in the greater Aegean region is used to derive representative maximum expected earthquake magnitude events, with realistic seismotectonic source characteristics, and of greatest tsunamigenic potential within each zone. By stacking the scenario produced maximum wave heights a global maximum map is constructed for the entire Hellenic coastline, corresponding to all expected extreme offshore earthquake sources. Further evaluation of the produced coastline categories based on the maximum expected wave heights emphasizes the tsunami hazard in selected coastal zones with important functions (i.e. touristic crowded zones, industrial zones, airports, power plants etc). Owing to its proximity to the Hellenic Arc, many urban centres and being a popular tourist destination, Crete Island and the South Aegean region are given a top priority to define extreme inundation zoning. In the second phase, a set of four large coastal cities (Kalamata, Chania, Heraklion and Rethymno), important for tsunami hazard, due i.e. to the crowded beaches during the summer season or industrial facilities, are explored towards preparedness and resilience for tsunami hazard in Greece. To simulate tsunamis in the Aegean region (generation, propagation and runup) the MOST - ComMIT NOAA code was used. High resolution DEMs for bathymetry and topography were joined via an interface, specifically developed for the inundation maps in this study and with similar products in mind. For the examples explored in the present study, we used 5m resolution for the topography and 30m resolution for the bathymetry, respectively. Although this study can be considered as preliminary, it can also form the basis to further develop a scenario based inundation model database that can be used as an operational tool, for fast assessing tsunami prone zones during a real tsunami crisis.

A national scale flood hazard mapping methodology: The case of Greece - Protection and adaptation policy approaches.

PubMed

Kourgialas, Nektarios N; Karatzas, George P

2017-12-01

The present work introduces a national scale flood hazard assessment methodology, using multi-criteria analysis and artificial neural networks (ANNs) techniques in a GIS environment. The proposed methodology was applied in Greece, where flash floods are a relatively frequent phenomenon and it has become more intense over the last decades, causing significant damages in rural and urban sectors. In order the most prone flooding areas to be identified, seven factor-maps (that are directly related to flood generation) were combined in a GIS environment. These factor-maps are: a) the Flow accumulation (F), b) the Land use (L), c) the Altitude (A), b) the Slope (S), e) the soil Erodibility (E), f) the Rainfall intensity (R), and g) the available water Capacity (C). The name to the proposed method is "FLASERC". The flood hazard for each one of these factors is classified into five categories: Very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The above factors are combined and processed using the appropriate ANN algorithm tool. For the ANN training process spatial distribution of historical flooded points in Greece within the five different flood hazard categories of the aforementioned seven factor-maps were combined. In this way, the overall flood hazard map for Greece was determined. The final results are verified using additional historical flood events that have occurred in Greece over the last 100years. In addition, an overview of flood protection measures and adaptation policy approaches were proposed for agricultural and urban areas located at very high flood hazard areas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

44 CFR 65.16 - Standard Flood Hazard Determination Form and Instructions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standard Flood Hazard... MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY INSURANCE AND HAZARD MITIGATION National Flood Insurance Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.16 Standard Flood Hazard Determination...

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolathayar, Sreevalsa; Sitharam, T. G.; Vipin, K. S.

2012-10-01

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6°-38°N and 68°-98°E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 10 × 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Publications - MP 133 v. 2 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Maps; Alaska, State of; Aleutian Arc; Aleutian Islands; Coastal and River; Coastal and River Hazards

Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautam, Dipendra

2017-12-01

This paper investigates district-wide social vulnerability to natural hazards in Nepal. Disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, epidemics, and droughts are common in Nepal. Every year thousands of people are killed and huge economic and environmental losses occur in Nepal due to various natural hazards. Although natural hazards are well recognized, quantitative and qualitative social vulnerability mapping has not existed until now in Nepal. This study aims to quantify the social vulnerability on a local scale, considering all 75 districts using the available census. To perform district-level vulnerability mapping, 13 variables were selected and aggregated indexes were plotted in an ArcGIS environment. The sum of results shows that only 4 districts in Nepal have a very low social vulnerability index whereas 46 districts (61 %) are at moderate to high social vulnerability levels. Vulnerability mapping highlights the immediate need for decentralized frameworks to tackle natural hazards in district level; additionally, the results of this study can contribute to preparedness, planning and resource management, inter-district coordination, contingency planning, and public awareness efforts.

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) in continental Asia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhang, Peizhen; Yang, Zhi-xian; Gupta, Harsh K.; Bhatia, Satish C.; Shedlock, Kaye M.

1999-01-01

The regional hazard mapping for the whole Eastern Asia was coordinated by the SSB Regional Centre in Beijing, originating from the expansion of the test area initially established in the border region of China-India-Nepal-Myanmar- Bangla Dash, in coordination with the other Regional Centres (JIPE, Moscow, and AGSO, Canberra) and with the direct assistance of the USGS. All Eastern Asian countries have participated directly in this regional effort, with the addition of Japan, for which an existing national hazard map was incorporated. The regional hazard depicts the expected peak ground acceleration with 10% exceedance probability in 50 years.

Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Publications Search Statewide Maps New Releases Sales Interactive Maps Databases Sections Geologic hazards to buildings, roads, bridges, and other installations and structures (AS 41.08.020). Headlines New release! Active faults and seismic hazards in Alaska - MP 160 New release! The Alaska Volcano Observatory

The Seismotectonic Map of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meghraoui, Mustapha

2015-04-01

We present the Seismotectonic Map of Africa based on a geological, geophysical and geodetic database including the instrumental seismicity and re-appraisal of large historical events with harmonization and homogenization of earthquake parameters in catalogues. Although the seismotectonic framework and mapping of the African continent is a difficult task, several previous and ongoing projects provide a wealth of data and outstanding results. The database of large and moderate earthquakes in different geological domains includes the coseismic and Quaternary faulting that reveals the complex nature of the active tectonics in Africa. The map also benefits from previous works on local and regional seismotectonic maps that needed to be integrated with the lithospheric and upper mantle structures from tomographic anisotropy and gravity anomaly into a continental framework. The synthesis of earthquake and volcanic studies with the analysis of long-term (late Quaternary) and short-term (last decades and centuries) active deformation observed with geodetic and other approaches presented along with the seismotectonic map serves as a basis for hazard calculations and the reduction of seismic risks. The map may also be very useful in the assessment of seismic hazard and mitigation of earthquake risk for significant infrastructures and their implications in the socio-economic impact in Africa. In addition, the constant population increase and infrastructure growth in the continent that exacerbate the earthquake risk justify the necessity for a continuous updating of the seismotectonic map. The database and related map are prepared in the framework of the IGC Project-601 "Seismotectonics and Seismic Hazards in Africa" of UNESCO-IUGS, funded by the Swedish International Development Agency and UNESCO-Nairobi for a period of 4 years (2011 - 2014), extended to 2016. * Mustapha Meghraoui (Coordinator) EOST - IPG Strasbourg CNRS-UMR 7516 m.meghraoui@unistra.fr corresponding author. Paulina Amponsah (AECG, Accra), Abdelhakim Ayadi (CRAAG, Algiers), Atalay Ayele (Univ. Addis Ababa), Ateba Bekoa (Bueah Univ. Yaounde), Abdunnur Bensuleman (Tripoli Univ.), Damien Delvaux (MRAC-Tervuren); Mohamed El Gabry (NRIAG, Cairo), Rui-Manuel Fernandes (Beira Univ.) ; Vunganai Midzi & Magda Roos (CGS, Pretoria), Youssef Timoulali (Univ. Mohamed V, Rabat). Website: http://eost.u-strasbg.fr/igcp601/index.html

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, T.I.; Wald, D.J.; Earle, P.S.; Marano, K.D.; Hotovec, A.J.; Lin, K.; Hearne, M.G.

2009-01-01

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Design and implementation of three-dimension texture mapping algorithm for panoramic system based on smart platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zhi; Zhou, Baotong; Zhang, Changnian

2017-03-01

Vehicle-mounted panoramic system is important safety assistant equipment for driving. However, traditional systems only render fixed top-down perspective view of limited view field, which may have potential safety hazard. In this paper, a texture mapping algorithm for 3D vehicle-mounted panoramic system is introduced, and an implementation of the algorithm utilizing OpenGL ES library based on Android smart platform is presented. Initial experiment results show that the proposed algorithm can render a good 3D panorama, and has the ability to change view point freely.

Improving the extraction of crisis information in the context of flood, fire, and landslide rapid mapping using SAR and optical remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinis, Sandro; Clandillon, Stephen; Twele, André; Huber, Claire; Plank, Simon; Maxant, Jérôme; Cao, Wenxi; Caspard, Mathilde; May, Stéphane

2016-04-01

Optical and radar satellite remote sensing have proven to provide essential crisis information in case of natural disasters, humanitarian relief activities and civil security issues in a growing number of cases through mechanisms such as the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) of the European Commission or the International Charter 'Space and Major Disasters'. The aforementioned programs and initiatives make use of satellite-based rapid mapping services aimed at delivering reliable and accurate crisis information after natural hazards. Although these services are increasingly operational, they need to be continuously updated and improved through research and development (R&D) activities. The principal objective of ASAPTERRA (Advancing SAR and Optical Methods for Rapid Mapping), the ESA-funded R&D project being described here, is to improve, automate and, hence, speed-up geo-information extraction procedures in the context of natural hazards response. This is performed through the development, implementation, testing and validation of novel image processing methods using optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. The methods are mainly developed based on data of the German radar satellites TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X, the French satellite missions Pléiades-1A/1B as well as the ESA missions Sentinel-1/2 with the aim to better characterize the potential and limitations of these sensors and their synergy. The resulting algorithms and techniques are evaluated in real case applications during rapid mapping activities. The project is focussed on three types of natural hazards: floods, landslides and fires. Within this presentation an overview of the main methodological developments in each topic is given and demonstrated in selected test areas. The following developments are presented in the context of flood mapping: a fully automated Sentinel-1 based processing chain for detecting open flood surfaces, a method for the improved detection of flooded vegetation in Sentinel-1data using Entropy/Alpha decomposition, unsupervised Wishart Classification, and object-based post-classification as well as semi-automatic approaches for extracting inundated areas and flood traces in rural and urban areas from VHR and HR optical imagery using machine learning techniques. Methodological developments related to fires are the implementation of fast and robust methods for mapping burnt scars using change detection procedures using SAR (Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X) and HR optical (e.g. SPOT, Sentinel-2) data as well as the extraction of 3D surface and volume change information from Pléiades stereo-pairs. In the context of landslides, fast and transferable change detection procedures based on SAR (TerraSAR-X) and optical (SPOT) data as well methods for extracting the extent of landslides only based on polarimetric VHR SAR (TerraSAR-X) data are presented.

Slope Hazard and Risk Assessment in the Tropics: Malaysia' Experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohamad, Zakaria; Azahari Razak, Khamarrul; Ahmad, Ferdaus; Manap, Mohamad Abdul; Ramli, Zamri; Ahmad, Azhari; Mohamed, Zainab

2015-04-01

The increasing number of geological hazards in Malaysia has often resulted in casualties and extensive devastation with high mitigation cost. Given the destructive capacity and high frequency of disaster, Malaysia has taken a step forward to address the multi-scale landslide risk reduction emphasizing pre-disaster action rather than post-disaster reaction. Slope hazard and risk assessment in a quantitative manner at regional and national scales remains challenging in Malaysia. This paper presents the comprehensive methodology framework and operational needs driven by modern and advanced geospatial technology to address the aforementioned issues in the tropics. The Slope Hazard and Risk Mapping, the first national project in Malaysia utilizing the multi-sensor LIDAR has been critically implemented with the support of multi- and trans-disciplinary partners. The methodological model has been formulated and evaluated given the complexity of risk scenarios in this knowledge driven project. Instability slope problems in the urban, mountainous and tectonic landscape are amongst them, and their spatial information is of crucial for regional landslide assessment. We develop standard procedures with optimal parameterization for susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment in the selected regions. Remarkably, we are aiming at producing an utmost complete landslide inventory in both space and time. With the updated reliable terrain and landscape models, the landslide conditioning factor maps can be accurately derived depending on the landslide types and failure mechanisms which crucial for hazard and risk assessment. We also aim to improve the generation of elements at risk for landslide and promote integrated approaches for a better disaster risk analysis. As a result, a new tool, notably multi-sensor LIDAR technology is a very promising tool for an old geological problem and its derivative data for hazard and risk analysis is an effective preventive measure in Malaysia. Geological, morphological, and physical factors coupled with anthropogenic activities made the spatiotemporal prediction of possible slope failures very challenging. Changing climate and land-use-and-land-cover required a dynamic geo-system approach for assessing multi-hazard in Malaysia and it is still a great challenge to be dealt with. We also critically discussed the capability, limitation and future direction of geo-information tools particularly the active sensors for systematically providing the spatial input towards landslide hazard and possible risk. The cost-and-benefit of developed methods compared to traditional mapping techniques is also elaborated. This paper put forth the critical and practical framework ranging from updating landslide inventory to mitigating landslide risk as an attempt to support the establishment of a comprehensive landslide risk management in Malaysia. The advancement of multistage processing sequence based on airborne-, and ground-based laser remote sensing technology coupling with the sophisticated satellite positioning system, advanced geographical information system and expert knowledge leading to a better understanding of the landslide processes and their dynamics in time and space. Given the state-of-the-art of multi-sensor-LIDAR and complexity of tropical environment, this first landslide project carried out at the national scale provides a better indication and recommendation on the use of modern and advanced mapping technology for assessing tropical landslide geomorphology in an objective, reproducible and quantitative manner.

The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst: geographic information systems software for modeling hazard evacuation potential

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Ng, Peter; Wood, Nathan J.

2014-01-01

Recent disasters such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake and tsunami; the 2013 Colorado floods; and the 2014 Oso, Washington, mudslide have raised awareness of catastrophic, sudden-onset hazards that arrive within minutes of the events that trigger them, such as local earthquakes or landslides. Due to the limited amount of time between generation and arrival of sudden-onset hazards, evacuations are typically self-initiated, on foot, and across the landscape (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Although evacuation to naturally occurring high ground may be feasible in some vulnerable communities, evacuation modeling has demonstrated that other communities may require vertical-evacuation structures within a hazard zone, such as berms or buildings, if at-risk individuals are to survive some types of sudden-onset hazards (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2013). Researchers use both static least-cost-distance (LCD) and dynamic agent-based models to assess the pedestrian evacuation potential of vulnerable communities. Although both types of models help to understand the evacuation landscape, LCD models provide a more general overview that is independent of population distributions, which may be difficult to quantify given the dynamic spatial and temporal nature of populations (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012). Recent LCD efforts related to local tsunami threats have focused on an anisotropic (directionally dependent) path distance modeling approach that incorporates travel directionality, multiple travel speed assumptions, and cost surfaces that reflect variations in slope and land cover (Wood and Schmidtlein, 2012, 2013). The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst software implements this anisotropic path-distance approach for pedestrian evacuation from sudden-onset hazards, with a particular focus at this time on local tsunami threats. The model estimates evacuation potential based on elevation, direction of movement, land cover, and travel speed and creates a map showing travel times to safety (a time map) throughout a hazard zone. Model results provide a general, static view of the evacuation landscape at different pedestrian travel speeds and can be used to identify areas outside the reach of naturally occurring high ground. In addition, data on the size and location of different populations within the hazard zone can be integrated with travel-time maps to create tables and graphs of at-risk population counts as a function of travel time to safety. As a decision-support tool, the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst provides the capability to evaluate the effectiveness of various vertical-evacuation structures within a study area, both through time maps of the modeled travel-time landscape with a potential structure in place and through comparisons of population counts within reach of safety. The Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst is designed for use by researchers examining the pedestrian-evacuation potential of an at-risk community. In communities where modeled evacuation times exceed the event (for example, tsunami wave) arrival time, researchers can use the software with emergency managers to assess the area and population served by potential vertical-evacuation options. By automating and managing the modeling process, the software allows researchers to concentrate efforts on providing crucial and timely information on community vulnerability to sudden-onset hazards.

Inception horizon concept as a basis for sinkhole hazard mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vouillamoz, J.; Jeannin, P.-Y.; Kopp, L.; Chantry, R.

2012-04-01

The office for natural hazards of the Vaud canton (Switzerland) is interested for a pragmatic approach to map sinkhole hazard in karst areas. A team was created by merging resources from a geoengineering company (CSD) and a karst specialist (SISKA). Large areas in Vaud territory are limestone karst in which the collapse hazard is essentially related to the collapse of soft-rocks covering underground cavities, rather than the collapse of limestone roofs or underground chambers. This statement is probably not valid for cases in gypsum and salt. Thus, for limestone areas, zones of highest danger are voids covered by a thin layer of soft-sediments. The spatial distributions of void and cover-thickness should therefore be used for the hazard assessment. VOID ASSESSMENT Inception features (IF) are millimetre to decimetre thick planes (mainly bedding but also fractures) showing a mineralogical, a granulometrical or a physical contrast with the surrounding formation that make them especially susceptible to karst development (FILIPPONI ET AL., 2009). The analysis of more than 1500 km of cave passage showed that karst conduits are mainly developed along such discrete layers within a limestone series. The so-called Karst-ALEA method (FILIPPONI ET AL., 2011) is based on this concept and aims at assessing the probability of karst conduit occurrences in the drilling of a tunnel. This approach requires as entries the identification of inception features (IF), the recognition of paleo-water-table (PWT), and their respective spatial distribution in a 3D geological model. We suggest the Karst-ALEA method to be adjusted in order to assess the void distribution in subsurface as a basis for sinkhole hazard mapping. Inception features (horizons or fractures) and paleo-water-tables (PWT) have to be first identified using visible caves and dolines. These features should then be introduced into a 3D geological model. Intersections of HI and PWT located close to landsurface are areas with a high probability of karst occurrence. ASSESSMENT OF THE SOFT-SEDIMENT COVER Classical geological investigations (mapping, DEM analysis, drilling, etc.) are used to establish a map of the thickness of soft-sediment on top of the limestone. This can also be included in the 3D model. The combination of the void and soft-sediment information in the 3D model makes it possible to derive the sinkhole hazard map. This is currently being developed and applied in the Vaud canton and first results will be presented. BIBLIOGRAPHY FILIPPONI, M., JEANNIN, P. & TACHER, L. (2009): Evidence of inception horizons in karst conduit networks. Geomorphology, 106, 86-99. FILIPPONI, M., SCHMASSMANN, S., JEANNIN, P. Y. & PARRIAUX, A. (2011): Karst - ALEA - Method a risk assessment method of karst for tunnel projects: Application to the Tunnel of Flims (GR, Switzerland). Proc. 9th conference on limestone hydrogeology. Besançon, France. p. 181-184.

Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

Landslide activity as a threat to infrastructure in river valleys - An example from outer Western Carpathians (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łuszczyńska, Katarzyna; Wistuba, Małgorzata; Malik, Ireneusz

2017-11-01

Intensive development of the area of Polish Carpathians increases the scale of landslide risk. Thus detecting landslide hazards and risks became important issue for spatial planning in the area. We applied dendrochronological methods and GIS analysis for better understanding of landslide activity and related hazards in the test area (3,75 km2): Salomonka valley and nearby slopes in the Beskid Żywiecki Mts., Outer Western Carpathians, southern Poland. We applied eccentricity index of radial growth of trees to date past landslide events. Dendrochronological results allowed us to determine the mean frequency of landsliding at each sampling point which were next interpolated into a map of landslide hazard. In total we took samples at 46 points. In each point we sampled 3 coniferous trees. Landslide hazard map shows a medium (23 sampling points) and low (20 sampling points) level of landslide activity for most of the area. The highest level of activity was recorded for the largest landslide. Results of the dendrochronological study suggest that all landslides reaching downslope to Salomonka valley floor are active. LiDAR-based analysis of relief shows that there is an active coupling between those landslides and river channel. Thus channel damming and formation of an episodic lake are probable. The hazard of flooding valley floor upstream of active landslides should be included in the local spatial planning system and crisis management system.

Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

2009-04-01

A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to access, manage, update and distribute in a short time to all sectors and users; and finally, the need of a comprehensive understanding of landslide processes. Many efforts have been made in the last 10 years to gain a more comprehensive and predictive understanding of landslide processes in Nicaragua. Since 1998, landslide inventory GIS based maps have been produced in different areas of the country, as part of international and multidisciplinary development projects. Landslide susceptibility and hazard maps are available now at INETEŔs Website for all municipalities of the country. The insights on landslide hazard have been transmitted to governmental agencies, local authorities, NGÓs, international agencies to be used in measures for risk reduction. A massive application example was the integration of hazard assessment studies in a large house building program in Nicaragua. Hazards of landslides, and other dangerous phenomena, were evaluated in more than 90 house building projects, each with 50 - 200 houses to be build, sited mainly in rural areas of the country. For more than 7000 families, this program could finally assure that their new houses were build in safe areas. Attempts have been made to develop a strategy for early warning of landslides in Nicaragua. First approaches relied on precipitation gauges with satellite based telemetry which were installed in some Nicaraguan volcanoes where lahars occur frequently. The occurrence of lahars in certain gullies could be detected by seismic stations. A software system gave acoustic alarm at INETEŔs Monitoring Centre when certain trigger levels of the accumulated precipitation were reached. The monitoring and early warning for all areas under risk would have required many rain gauges. A new concept is tested which uses near real time precipitation estimates from NOAA meteorological satellite data. A software system sends out alarm messages if strong or long lasting rains are observed over certain landslide "hot spots". The work in Nicaragua also aims to develop methods which can be followed in Central America and by other developing countries in the data collection, hazard mapping and assessment, Web publishing, and early warning.

The predictive power of airborne gamma ray survey data on the locations of domestic radon hazards in Norway: A strong case for utilizing airborne data in large-scale radon potential mapping.

PubMed

Smethurst, M A; Watson, R J; Baranwal, V C; Rudjord, A L; Finne, I

2017-01-01

It is estimated that exposure to radon in Norwegian dwellings is responsible for as many as 300 deaths a year due to lung cancer. To address this, the authorities in Norway have developed a national action plan that has the aim of reducing exposure to radon in Norway (Norwegian Ministries, 2010). The plan includes further investigation of the relationship between radon hazard and geological conditions, and development of map-based tools for assessing the large spatial variation in radon hazard levels across Norway. The main focus of the present contribution is to describe how we generate map predictions of radon potential (RP), a measure of radon hazard, from available airborne gamma ray spectrometry (AGRS) surveys in Norway, and what impact these map predictions can be expected to have on radon protection work including land-use planning and targeted surveying. We have compiled 11 contiguous AGRS surveys centred on the most populated part of Norway around Oslo to produce an equivalent uranium map measuring 180 km × 102 km that represents the relative concentrations of radon in the near surface of the ground with a spatial resolution in the 100 s of metres. We find that this map of radon in the ground offers a far more detailed and reliable picture of the distribution of radon in the sub-surface than can be deduced from the available digital geology maps. We tested the performances of digital geology and AGRS data as predictors of RP. We find that digital geology explains approximately 40% of the observed variance in ln RP nationally, while the AGRS data in the Oslo area split into 14 bands explains approximately 70% of the variance in the same parameter. We also notice that there are too few indoor data to characterise all geological settings in Norway which leaves areas in the geology-based RP map in the Oslo area, and elsewhere, unclassified. The AGRS RP map is derived from fewer classes, all characterised by more than 30 indoor measurements, and the corresponding RP map of the Oslo area has no unclassified parts. We used statistics of proportions to add 95% confidence limits to estimates of RP on our predictive maps, offering public health strategists an objective measure of uncertainty in the model. The geological and AGRS RP maps were further compared in terms of their performances in correctly classifying local areas known to be radon affected and less affected. Both maps were accurate in their predictions; however the AGRS map out-performed the geology map in its ability to offer confident predictions of RP for all of the local areas tested. We compared the AGRS RP map with the 2015 distribution of population in the Oslo area to determine the likely impact of radon contamination on the population. 11.4% of the population currently reside in the area classified as radon affected. 34% of ground floor living spaces in this affected area are expected to exceed the maximum limit of 200 Bq/m 3 , while 8.4% of similar spaces outside the affected area exceed this same limit, indicating that the map is very efficient at separating areas with quite different radon contamination profiles. The usefulness of the AGRS RP map in guiding new indoor radon surveys in the Oslo area was also examined. It is shown that indoor measuring programmes targeted on elevated RP areas could be as much as 6 times more efficient at identifying ground floor living spaces above the radon action level compared with surveys based on a random sampling strategy. Also, targeted measuring using the AGRS RP map as a guide makes it practical to search for the worst affected homes in the Oslo area: 10% of the incidences of very high radon contamination in ground floor living spaces (≥800 Bq/m 3 ) are concentrated in just 1.2% of the populated part of the area. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Hazard Detection Software for Lunar Landing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huertas, Andres; Johnson, Andrew E.; Werner, Robert A.; Montgomery, James F.

2011-01-01

The Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) Project is developing a system for safe and precise manned lunar landing that involves novel sensors, but also specific algorithms. ALHAT has selected imaging LIDAR (light detection and ranging) as the sensing modality for onboard hazard detection because imaging LIDARs can rapidly generate direct measurements of the lunar surface elevation from high altitude. Then, starting with the LIDAR-based Hazard Detection and Avoidance (HDA) algorithm developed for Mars Landing, JPL has developed a mature set of HDA software for the manned lunar landing problem. Landing hazards exist everywhere on the Moon, and many of the more desirable landing sites are near the most hazardous terrain, so HDA is needed to autonomously and safely land payloads over much of the lunar surface. The HDA requirements used in the ALHAT project are to detect hazards that are 0.3 m tall or higher and slopes that are 5 or greater. Steep slopes, rocks, cliffs, and gullies are all hazards for landing and, by computing the local slope and roughness in an elevation map, all of these hazards can be detected. The algorithm in this innovation is used to measure slope and roughness hazards. In addition to detecting these hazards, the HDA capability also is able to find a safe landing site free of these hazards for a lunar lander with diameter .15 m over most of the lunar surface. This software includes an implementation of the HDA algorithm, software for generating simulated lunar terrain maps for testing, hazard detection performance analysis tools, and associated documentation. The HDA software has been deployed to Langley Research Center and integrated into the POST II Monte Carlo simulation environment. The high-fidelity Monte Carlo simulations determine the required ground spacing between LIDAR samples (ground sample distances) and the noise on the LIDAR range measurement. This simulation has also been used to determine the effect of viewing on hazard detection performance. The software has also been deployed to Johnson Space Center and integrated into the ALHAT real-time Hardware-in-the-Loop testbed.

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

44 CFR 64.3 - Flood Insurance Maps.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V1-30, VE Area of special flood hazards, with water surface elevations determined and with velocity, that is inundated by tidal floods (coastal high hazard area) V0 Area..., but possible, mudslide hazards E Area of special flood-related erosion hazards. Areas identified as...

Volcanic hazard communication using maps: an evaluation of their effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

2007-11-01

Hazard maps are considered essential tools in the communication of volcanic risk between scientists, the local authorities and the public. This study investigates the efficacy of such maps for the volcanic island of Montserrat in the West Indies using both quantitative and qualitative research techniques. Normal plan view maps, which have been used on the island over the last 10 years of the crisis, are evaluated against specially produced three-dimensional (3D) maps and perspective photographs. Thirty-two demographically representative respondents of mixed backgrounds, sex, education and location were interviewed and asked to complete a range of tasks and identification on the maps and photographs. The overall results show that ordinary people have problems interpreting their environment as a mapped representation. We found respondents’ ability to locate and orientate themselves as well as convey information relating to volcanic hazards was improved when using aerial photographs rather than traditional plan view contour maps. There was a slight improvement in the use of the 3D maps, especially in terms of topographic recognition. However, the most striking increase in effectiveness was found with the perspective photographs, which enabled people to identify features and their orientation much more readily. For Montserrat it appears that well labelled aerial and perspective photographs are the most effective geo-spatial method of communicating volcanic risks.

Debris flow risk mapping on medium scale and estimation of prospective economic losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blahut, Jan; Sterlacchini, Simone

2010-05-01

Delimitation of potential zones affected by debris flow hazard, mapping of areas at risk, and estimation of future economic damage provides important information for spatial planners and local administrators in all countries endangered by this type of phenomena. This study presents a medium scale (1:25 000 - 1: 50 000) analysis applied in the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Italian Alps, Lombardy Region). In this area a debris flow hazard map was coupled with the information about the elements at risk to obtain monetary values of prospective damage. Two available hazard maps were obtained from GIS medium scale modelling. Probability estimations of debris flow occurrence were calculated using existing susceptibility maps and two sets of aerial images. Value to the elements at risk was assigned according to the official information on housing costs and land value from the Territorial Agency of Lombardy Region. In the first risk map vulnerability values were assumed to be 1. The second risk map uses three classes of vulnerability values qualitatively estimated according to the debris flow possible propagation. Risk curves summarizing the possible economic losses were calculated. Finally these maps of economic risk were compared to maps derived from qualitative evaluation of the values of the elements at risk.

Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, C.; Haukaas, Terje

2015-01-01

ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

New insights on the seismic hazard in the Balkans inferred from GPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Agostino, Nicola; Métois, Marianne; Avallone, Antonio; Chamot-Rooke, Nicolas

2014-05-01

The Balkans region sits at the transition between stable Eurasia and highly straining continental Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in a widespread seismicity and high seismic hazard. Because of intensive human and economic development over the last decades, the vulnerability has increased in the region faster than the progress in seismic hazard assessments. Opposite to the relatively good understanding of the seismicity in plate boundaries contexts, the seismic hazard is poorly known in the regions of distributed continental deformation like the Balkan region and is often underestimated (England and Jackson, 2011). Current seismic hazard assessments are based on the historical and instrumental catalogues. However, the completeness interval of the historical data bases may be below the average recurrence of individual seismogenic structures. In addition, relatively sparse seismological networks in the region and limited cross-border seismic data exchanges cast doubts in seismotectonic interpretation and challenge our understanding of seismic and geodynamic processes. This results in a inhomogeneous knowledge of the seismic hazard of the region to date. Geodetic measurements have the capability to contribute to seismic hazard by mapping the field of current active deformation and translating it into estimates of the seismogenic potential. With simple assumptions, measurements of crustal deformation can be translated in estimates of the average frequency and magnitude of the largest events and assessments of the aseismic deformation. GPS networks in the Balkans have been growing during the last few years mainly for civilian application (e.g. Cadastral plan, telecommunications), but opening new opportunities to quantify the present-day rates of crustal deformation. Here we present the initial results of GEOSAB (Geodetic Estimate of Strain Accumulation over Balkans), an AXA-Research-Fund supported project devoted to the estimation of crustal deformation and the associated seismic hazard of the Balkan region. We processed all the currently available data acquired on these new networks using the precise point positioning strategy of the Gipsy-Oasis software (Bertiger et al. 2010) and the daily ITF2008 transformation parameters (x-files) from JPL. Daily coordinates are obtained in a Eurasia-fix reference frame obtained using the strategy developed by Blewitt et al. (2012). Here we present this new velocity field combined with previously published data sets covering the Balkan Peninsula. This unusually dense picture of the current deformation, in particular in Slovenia and Serbia, enables us to derive a continuous map of the strain rate over the region using the approach of Haines and Holt (1993). We then derive the seismogenic potential of the region combining the geodetic strain rate and the available regional CMT moment tensor solutions. These maps bring new insights on areas of significant strain accumulation over the Balkan Peninsula and are a first step to better assess seismic hazard there.

Flood hazards studies in the Mississippi River basin using remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rango, A.; Anderson, A. T.

1974-01-01

The Spring 1973 Mississippi River flood was investigated using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1. Both manual and automatic analyses of the data indicated that ERTS-1 is extremely useful as a regional tool for flood mamagement. Quantitative estimates of area flooded were made in St. Charles County, Missouri and Arkansas. Flood hazard mapping was conducted in three study areas along the Mississippi River using pre-flood ERTS-1 imagery enlarged to 1:250,000 and 1:100,000 scale. Initial results indicate that ERTS-1 digital mapping of flood prone areas can be performed at 1:62,500 which is comparable to some conventional flood hazard map scales.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against disasters.

Seismic Hazard Maps for the Maltese Archipelago: Preliminary Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'Amico, S.; Panzera, F.; Galea, P. M.

2013-12-01

The Maltese islands form an archipelago of three major islands lying in the Sicily channel at about 140 km south of Sicily and 300 km north of Libya. So far very few investigations have been carried out on seismicity around the Maltese islands and no maps of seismic hazard for the archipelago are available. Assessing the seismic hazard for the region is currently of prime interest for the near-future development of industrial and touristic facilities as well as for urban expansion. A culture of seismic risk awareness has never really been developed in the country, and the public perception is that the islands are relatively safe, and that any earthquake phenomena are mild and infrequent. However, the Archipelago has been struck by several moderate/large events. Although recent constructions of a certain structural and strategic importance have been built according to high engineering standards, the same probably cannot be said for all residential buildings, many higher than 3 storeys, which have mushroomed rapidly in recent years. Such buildings are mostly of unreinforced masonry, with heavy concrete floor slabs, which are known to be highly vulnerable to even moderate ground shaking. We can surely state that in this context planning and design should be based on available national hazard maps. Unfortunately, these kinds of maps are not available for the Maltese islands. In this paper we attempt to compute a first and preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Maltese islands in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Spectral Acceleration (SA) at different periods. Seismic hazard has been computed using the Esteva-Cornell (1968) approach which is the most widely utilized probabilistic method. It is a zone-dependent approach: seismotectonic and geological data are used coupled with earthquake catalogues to identify seismogenic zones within which earthquakes occur at certain rates. Therefore the earthquake catalogues can be reduced to the activity rate, the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship and an estimate of the maximum magnitude. In this article we also defined a new seismogenic zones in the central Mediterranean never considered before. In order to determine the ground motion parameters related to a specified probability of exceedance, the above statistical parameters are combined with ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard computations have been performed within the island boundaries. The preliminary maps for PGA distribution on rock site obtained for a 10% probability of exceedance shows values ranging between 0.09-0.18 g whereas, SA for 0.2, 04, 1.0 s show values of about 0.21-0.40 g, 0.14-0.24 g and 0.05-0.08 g respectively.

Active, capable, and potentially active faults - a paleoseismic perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machette, M.N.

2000-01-01

Maps of faults (geologically defined source zones) may portray seismic hazards in a wide range of completeness depending on which types of faults are shown. Three fault terms - active, capable, and potential - are used in a variety of ways for different reasons or applications. Nevertheless, to be useful for seismic-hazards analysis, fault maps should encompass a time interval that includes several earthquake cycles. For example, if the common recurrence in an area is 20,000-50,000 years, then maps should include faults that are 50,000-100,000 years old (two to five typical earthquake cycles), thus allowing for temporal variability in slip rate and recurrence intervals. Conversely, in more active areas such as plate boundaries, maps showing faults that are <10,000 years old should include those with at least 2 to as many as 20 paleoearthquakes. For the International Lithosphere Programs' Task Group II-2 Project on Major Active Faults of the World our maps and database will show five age categories and four slip rate categories that allow one to select differing time spans and activity rates for seismic-hazard analysis depending on tectonic regime. The maps are accompanied by a database that describes evidence for Quaternary faulting, geomorphic expression, and paleoseismic parameters (slip rate, recurrence interval and time of most recent surface faulting). These maps and databases provide an inventory of faults that would be defined as active, capable, and potentially active for seismic-hazard assessments.

STEP-TRAMM - A modeling interface for simulating localized rainfall induced shallow landslides and debris flow runout pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Or, D.; von Ruette, J.; Lehmann, P.

2017-12-01

Landslides and subsequent debris-flows initiated by rainfall represent a common natural hazard in mountainous regions. We integrated a landslide hydro-mechanical triggering model with a simple model for debris flow runout pathways and developed a graphical user interface (GUI) to represent these natural hazards at catchment scale at any location. The STEP-TRAMM GUI provides process-based estimates of the initiation locations and sizes of landslides patterns based on digital elevation models (SRTM) linked with high resolution global soil maps (SoilGrids 250 m resolution) and satellite based information on rainfall statistics for the selected region. In the preprocessing phase the STEP-TRAMM model estimates soil depth distribution to supplement other soil information for delineating key hydrological and mechanical properties relevant to representing local soil failure. We will illustrate this publicly available GUI and modeling platform to simulate effects of deforestation on landslide hazards in several regions and compare model outcome with satellite based information.

Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

2016-11-01

Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

2007-01-01

Finally, ASTERs 60 km swath width and 8% duty cycle presents a challenge for mapping lahar inundation hazards at E–W oriented stream valleys in low-latitude areas with persistent cloud cover. However, its continued operations enhances its utility as a means for updating the continuous but one-time coverage of SRTM, and for filling voids in the SRTM dataset such as those that occur along steep-sided valleys prone to hazards from future lahars.

Evaluation of a risk-based environmental hot spot delineation algorithm.

PubMed

Sinha, Parikhit; Lambert, Michael B; Schew, William A

2007-10-22

Following remedial investigations of hazardous waste sites, remedial strategies may be developed that target the removal of "hot spots," localized areas of elevated contamination. For a given exposure area, a hot spot may be defined as a sub-area that causes risks for the whole exposure area to be unacceptable. The converse of this statement may also apply: when a hot spot is removed from within an exposure area, risks for the exposure area may drop below unacceptable thresholds. The latter is the motivation for a risk-based approach to hot spot delineation, which was evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Random samples taken from a virtual site ("true site") were used to create an interpolated site. The latter was gridded and concentrations from the center of each grid box were used to calculate 95% upper confidence limits on the mean site contaminant concentration and corresponding hazard quotients for a potential receptor. Grid cells with the highest concentrations were removed and hazard quotients were recalculated until the site hazard quotient dropped below the threshold of 1. The grid cells removed in this way define the spatial extent of the hot spot. For each of the 100,000 Monte Carlo iterations, the delineated hot spot was compared to the hot spot in the "true site." On average, the algorithm was able to delineate hot spots that were collocated with and equal to or greater in size than the "true hot spot." When delineated hot spots were mapped onto the "true site," setting contaminant concentrations in the mapped area to zero, the hazard quotients for these "remediated true sites" were on average within 5% of the acceptable threshold of 1.

Natural Hazards within the West Indies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cross, John A.

1992-01-01

Outlines the vulnerability of the West Indies to various natural hazards, especially hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions. Reviews the geologic and meteorologic causes and consequences of the hazards. Suggests methods of incorporating hazards information in geography classes. Includes maps and a hurricane tracking chart. (DK)

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2007-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2004-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2008-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2009-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2006-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This bibliographic report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2002-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

Publications of the Volcano Hazards Program 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nathenson, Manuel

2010-01-01

The Volcano Hazards Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is part of the Geologic Hazards Assessments subactivity as funded by Congressional appropriation. Investigations are carried out in the Geology and Hydrology Disciplines of the USGS and with cooperators at the Alaska Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys, University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, University of Hawaii Manoa and Hilo, University of Utah, and University of Washington Geophysics Program. This report lists publications from all these institutions. This report contains only published papers and maps; numerous abstracts produced for presentations at scientific meetings have not been included. Publications are included based on date of publication with no attempt to assign them to Fiscal Year.

78 FR 60755 - Hazardous Materials: Enhanced Enforcement Procedures-Resumption of Transportation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-02

.... Summary of MAP-21 and Final Rule V. Summary Review of Amendments VI. Regulatory Analyses and Notices A.... Executive Summary On July 6, 2012, the President signed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, or the MAP-21, which included the Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety Improvement Act of...

Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Widiwijayanti, C.; Voight, B.; Hidayat, D.; Schilling, S.P.

2009-01-01

Assessments of pyroclastic flow (PF) hazards are commonly based on mapping of PF and surge deposits and estimations of inundation limits, and/or computer models of varying degrees of sophistication. In volcanic crises a PF hazard map may be sorely needed, but limited time, exposures, or safety aspects may preclude fieldwork, and insufficient time or baseline data may be available for reliable dynamic simulations. We have developed a statistically constrained simulation model for block-and-ash type PFs to estimate potential areas of inundation by adapting methodology from Iverson et al. (Geol Soc America Bull 110:972-984, (1998) for lahars. The predictive equations for block-and-ash PFs are calibrated with data from several volcanoes and given by A = (0.05 to 0.1) V2/3, B = (35 to 40) V2/3, where A is cross-sectional area of inundation, B is planimetric area and V is deposit volume. The proportionality coefficients were obtained from regression analyses and comparison of simulations to mapped deposits. The method embeds the predictive equations in a GIS program coupled with DEM topography, using the LAHARZ program of Schilling (1998). Although the method is objective and reproducible, any PF hazard zone so computed should be considered as an approximate guide only, due to uncertainties on the coefficients applicable to individual PFs, the authenticity of DEM details, and the volume of future collapses. The statistical uncertainty of the predictive equations, which imply a factor of two or more in predicting A or B for a specified V, is superposed on the uncertainty of forecasting V for the next PF to descend a particular valley. Multiple inundation zones, produced by simulations using a selected range of volumes, partly accommodate these uncertainties. The resulting maps show graphically that PF inundation potentials are highest nearest volcano sources and along valley thalwegs, and diminish with distance from source and lateral distance from thalweg. The model does not explicitly consider dynamic behavior, which can be important. Ash-cloud surge impact limits must be extended beyond PF hazard zones and we provide several approaches to do this. The method has been used to supply PF and surge hazard maps in two crises: Merapi 2006; and Montserrat 2006-2007. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Application of the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process for landslide hazard assessment based on RS and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Baishou; Gao, Yujiu

2015-12-01

The landslide is a geological disaster that caused the second disruptions and losses next to the earthquake, and people around the world suffered a serious threat to their lives and property damage as a result of landslide disaster every year. So carrying on the study of the landslide hazard will create important theoretical meaning and practical value for proposing targeted prevention and treatment measures. Landslides occur more frequently in Guangxi where serious landslide disasters run riot because of its unique karst topography environment and abundant rainfall. The Wanxiu District of Wuzhou, Guangxi was selected as the study area, the landslide hazard zonation evaluation was studied on the basis of RS and GIS technology. The factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope inclination, slope aspect, curvature and distance to streams were derived from the DEM; land use was extracted from the Google Earth image; lithology was digitalized from the geologic map; rainfall information was from the literature. An improved analytic hierarchy process was presented to determine the index weight in this study. The method weakens the uncertainty in the process of comparing the importance of each factor, it need not to do the consistency check, which can also reduce the iteration times enormously, and improve operating speed. Combined with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the landslide hazard mapping of the study area was made according to the maximum membership degree principle. The resulting map can be used to provide some reference values for risk management, land-use planning and urbanization.

Incorporating Community Knowledge to Lahar Hazard Maps: Canton Buenos Aires Case Study, at Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, J. V.; Martinez-Hackert, B.; Polio, C.; Gutierrez, E.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana (Ilamatepec) Volcano is an active composite volcano located in the Apaneca Volcanic Field located in western part of El Salvador, Central America. The volcano is surrounded by rural communities in its proximal areas and the second (Santa Ana, 13 km) and fourth (Sonsosante, 15 km) largest cities of the country. On October 1st, 2005, the volcano erupted after months of increased activity. Following the eruption, volcanic mitigation projects were conducted in the region, but the communities had little or no input on them. This project consisted in the creation of lahar volcanic hazard map for the Canton Buanos Aires on the northern part of the volcano by incorporating the community's knowledge from prior events to model parameters and results. The work with the community consisted in several meetings where the community members recounted past events. They were asked to map the outcomes of those events using either a topographic map of the area, a Google Earth image, or a blank paper poster size. These maps have been used to identify hazard and vulnerable areas, and for model validation. These maps were presented to the communities and they accepted their results and the maps.

Map showing lava-flow hazard zones, Island of Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Thomas L.; Chun, Jon Y.F.; Exposo, Jean; Heliker, Christina; Hodge, Jon; Lockwood, John P.; Vogt, Susan M.

1992-01-01

This map shows lava-flow hazard zones for the five volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii. Volcano boundaries are shown as heavy, dark bands, reflecting the overlapping of lava flows from adjacent volcanoes along their common boundary. Hazard-zone boundaries are drawn as double lines because of the geologic uncertainty in their placement. Most boundaries are gradational, and the change In the degree of hazard can be found over a distance of a mile or more. The general principles used to place hazard-zone boundaries are discussed by Mullineaux and others (1987) and Heliker (1990). The differences between the boundaries presented here and in Heliker (1990) reflect new data used in the compilation of a geologic map for the Island of Hawaii (E.W. Wolfe and Jean Morris, unpub. data, 1989). The primary source of information for volcano boundaries and generalized ages of lava flows for all five volcanoes on the Island of Hawaii is the geologic map of Hawaii (E.W. Wolfe and Jean Morris, unpub. data, 1989). More detailed information is available for the three active volcanoes. For Hualalai, see Moore and others (1987) and Moore and Clague (1991); for Mauna Loa, see Lockwood and Lipman (1987); and for Kilauea, see Holcomb (1987) and Moore and Trusdell (1991).

Genetic k-Means Clustering Approach for Mapping Human Vulnerability to Chemical Hazards in the Industrialized City: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

PubMed Central

Shi, Weifang; Zeng, Weihua

2013-01-01

Reducing human vulnerability to chemical hazards in the industrialized city is a matter of great urgency. Vulnerability mapping is an alternative approach for providing vulnerability-reducing interventions in a region. This study presents a method for mapping human vulnerability to chemical hazards by using clustering analysis for effective vulnerability reduction. Taking the city of Shanghai as the study area, we measure human exposure to chemical hazards by using the proximity model with additionally considering the toxicity of hazardous substances, and capture the sensitivity and coping capacity with corresponding indicators. We perform an improved k-means clustering approach on the basis of genetic algorithm by using a 500 m × 500 m geographical grid as basic spatial unit. The sum of squared errors and silhouette coefficient are combined to measure the quality of clustering and to determine the optimal clustering number. Clustering result reveals a set of six typical human vulnerability patterns that show distinct vulnerability dimension combinations. The vulnerability mapping of the study area reflects cluster-specific vulnerability characteristics and their spatial distribution. Finally, we suggest specific points that can provide new insights in rationally allocating the limited funds for the vulnerability reduction of each cluster. PMID:23787337

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

2015-04-01

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id; Cipta, Athanasius; Australian National University, Canberra

Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and backmore » thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.« less

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) Project: Status of SAR products for Earthquakes, Floods, Volcanoes and Groundwater-related Subsidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Owen, S. E.; Yun, S. H.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Liu, Z.; Sacco, G. F.; Manipon, G.; Linick, J. P.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Farr, T. G.; Webb, F.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.

2017-12-01

The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards is focused on rapidly generating high-level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. Space-based geodetic measurement techniques including Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), differential Global Positioning System, and SAR-based change detection have become critical additions to our toolset for understanding and mapping the damage and deformation caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, and groundwater extraction. Up until recently, processing of these data sets has been handcrafted for each study or event and has not generated products rapidly and reliably enough for response to natural disasters or for timely analysis of large data sets. The ARIA project, a joint venture co-sponsored by the California Institute of Technology and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has been capturing the knowledge applied to these responses and building it into an automated infrastructure to generate imaging products in near real-time that can improve situational awareness for disaster response. In addition to supporting the growing science and hazard response communities, the ARIA project has developed the capabilities to provide automated imaging and analysis capabilities necessary to keep up with the influx of raw SAR data from geodetic imaging missions such as ESA's Sentinel-1A/B, now operating with repeat intervals as short as 6 days, and the upcoming NASA NISAR mission. We will present the progress and results we have made on automating the analysis of Sentinel-1A/B SAR data for hazard monitoring and response, with emphasis on recent developments and end user engagement in flood extent mapping and deformation time series for both volcano monitoring and mapping of groundwater-related subsidence

Publications - IC 44 ed. 2004 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical

Science.gov Websites

Tidal Datum Portal Climate and Cryosphere Hazards Coastal Hazards Program Guide to Geologic Hazards in Map; Aeromagnetic Survey; Airborne Geophysical Survey; Alaska, State of; Bibliography; Coastal and

Applications of the seismic hazard model of Italy: from a new building code to the L'Aquila trial against seismologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meletti, C.

2013-05-01

In 2003, a large national project fur updating the seismic hazard map and the seismic zoning in Italy started, according to the rules fixed by an Ordinance by Italian Prime Minister. New input elements for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment were compiled: the earthquake catalogue, the seismogenic zonation, the catalogue completeness, a set of new attenuation relationships. The map of expected PGA on rock soil condition with 10% probability of exceedance is the new reference seismic hazard map for Italy (http://zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it). In the following, further 9 probabilities of exceedance and the uniform hazard spectra up to 2 seconds together with the disaggregation of the PGA was also released. A comprehensive seismic hazard model that fully describes the seismic hazard in Italy was then available, accessible by a webGis application (http://esse1-gis.mi.ingv.it/en.php). The detailed information make possible to change the approach for evaluating the proper seismic action for designing: from a zone-dependent approach (in Italy there were 4 seismic zones, each one with a single design spectrum) to a site-dependent approach: the design spectrum is now defined at each site of a grid of about 11000 points covering the whole national territory. The new building code becomes mandatory only after the 6 April 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the first strong event in Italy after the release of the seismic hazard map. The large number of recordings and the values of the experienced accelerations suggested the comparisons between the recorded spectra and spectra defined in the seismic codes Even if such comparisons could be robust only after several consecutive 50-year periods of observation and in a probabilistic approach it is not a single observation that can validate or not the hazard estimate, some of the comparisons that can be undertaken between the observed ground motions and the hazard model used for the seismic code have been performed and have shown that the assumptions and modeling choices made in the Italian hazard study are in line with the observations, by considering different return period, the soil condition at the recording stations and the uncertainties of the model. A further application of Italian seismic hazard model is in the identification of buildings and factories struck by the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes to be investigated in order to determine if they were still safe or not. The law states that no safety check is needed if the construction experienced a shaking greater than 70% of the design acceleration expected at the site, without abandoning the elastic behavior. The ground motion values are evaluated from the shakemaps available (http://shakemap.rm.ingv.it) and the design accelerations derived from the Building Code, which is based on the reference Italian seismic hazard model. Finally, the national seismic hazard model was one the most debated element during the trial in L'Aquila against the seismologists, experts of Civil Protection Department, sentenced to six years in prison on charges of manslaughter, because, according to the judge, they underestimated the risk in the region, giving a wrong message to the people, before the strong 2009 L'Aquila earthquake.

HANZE: a pan-European database of exposure to natural hazards and damaging historical floods since 1870

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paprotny, Dominik; Morales-Nápoles, Oswaldo; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-03-01

The influence of social and economic change on the consequences of natural hazards has been a matter of much interest recently. However, there is a lack of comprehensive, high-resolution data on historical changes in land use, population, or assets available to study this topic. Here, we present the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) database, which contains two parts: (1) HANZE-Exposure with maps for 37 countries and territories from 1870 to 2020 in 100 m resolution and (2) HANZE-Events, a compilation of past disasters with information on dates, locations, and losses, currently limited to floods only. The database was constructed using high-resolution maps of present land use and population, a large compilation of historical statistics, and relatively simple disaggregation techniques and rule-based land use reallocation schemes. Data encompassed in HANZE allow one to "normalize" information on losses due to natural hazards by taking into account inflation as well as changes in population, production, and wealth. This database of past events currently contains 1564 records (1870-2016) of flash, river, coastal, and compound floods. The HANZE database is freely available at https://data.4tu.nl/repository/collection:HANZE.

Proposed method for hazard mapping of landslide propagation zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serbulea, Manole-Stelian; Gogu, Radu; Manoli, Daniel-Marcel; Gaitanaru, Dragos Stefan; Priceputu, Adrian; Andronic, Adrian; Anghel, Alexandra; Liviu Bugea, Adrian; Ungureanu, Constantin; Niculescu, Alexandru

2013-04-01

Sustainable development of communities situated in areas with landslide potential requires a fully understanding of the mechanisms that govern the triggering of the phenomenon as well as the propagation of the sliding mass, with catastrophic consequences on the nearby inhabitants and environment. Modern analysis methods for areas affected by the movement of the soil bodies are presented in this work, as well as a new procedure to assess the landslide hazard. Classical soil mechanics offer sufficient numeric models to assess the landslide triggering zone, such as Limit Equilibrium Methods (Fellenius, Janbu, Morgenstern-Price, Bishop, Spencer etc.), blocks model or progressive mobilization models, Lagrange-based finite element method etc. The computation methods for assessing the propagation zones are quite recent and have high computational requirements, thus not being sufficiently used in practice to confirm their feasibility. The proposed procedure aims to assess not only the landslide hazard factor, but also the affected areas, by means of simple mathematical operations. The method can easily be employed in GIS software, without requiring engineering training. The result is obtained by computing the first and second derivative of the digital terrain model (slope and curvature maps). Using the curvature maps, it is shown that one can assess the areas most likely to be affected by the propagation of the sliding masses. The procedure is first applied on a simple theoretical model and then used on a representative section of a high exposure area in Romania. The method is described by comparison with Romanian legislation for risk and vulnerability assessment, which specifies that the landslide hazard is to be assessed, using an average hazard factor Km, obtained from various other factors. Following the employed example, it is observed that using the Km factor there is an inconsistent distribution of the polygonal surfaces corresponding to different landslide potential. For small values of Km (0.00..0.10) the polygonal surfaces have reduced dimensions along the slopes belonging to main rivers. This can be corrected by including in the analysis the potential areas to be affected by soil instability. Finally, it is shown that the proposed procedure can be used to better assess these areas and to produce more reliable landslide hazard maps. This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, Program for research - Space Technology and Advanced Research - STAR, project number 30/2012.

Airborne EM survey in volcanoes : Application to a volcanic hazards assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mogi, T.

2010-12-01

Airborne electromagnetics (AEM) is a useful tool for investigating subsurface structures of volcanoes because it can survey large areas involving inaccessible areas. Disadvantages include lower accuracy and limited depth of investigation. AEM has been widely used in mineral exploration in frontier areas, and have been applying to engineering and environmental fields, particularly in studies involving active volcanoes. AEM systems typically comprise a transmitter and a receiver on an aircraft or in a towed bird, and although effective for surveying large areas, their penetration depth is limited because the distance between the transmitter and receiver is small and higher-frequency signals are used. To explore deeper structures using AEM, a semi-airborne system called GRounded Electrical source Airborne Transient ElectroMagnetics (GREATEM) has been developed. The system uses a grounded-electrical-dipole as the transmitter and generates horizontal electric fields. The GREATEM technology, first proposed by Mogi et al. (1998), has recently been improved and used in practical surveys (Mogi et al., 2009). The GREATEM survey system was developed to increase the depth of investigation possible using AEM. The method was tested in some volcanoes at 2004-2005. Here I will talk about some results of typical AEM surveys and GREATEM surveys in some volcanoes in Japan to mitigate hazards associated with volcano eruption. Geologic hazards caused by volcanic eruptions can be mitigated by a combination of prediction, preparedness and land-use control. Risk management depends on the identification of hazard zones and forecasting of eruptions. Hazard zoning involves the mapping of deposits which have formed during particular phases of volcanic activity and their extrapolation to identify the area which would be likely to suffer a similar hazard at some future time. The mapping is usually performed by surface geological surveys of volcanic deposits. Resistivity mapping by AEM is useful tool to identify each volcanic deposit on the surface and at shallower depth as well. This suggests that more efficient hazard map involving subsurface information can be supplied by AEM resistivity mapping.

Utilization of geoinformation tools for the development of forest fire hazard mapping system: example of Pekan fire, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Ahmad Rodzi; Setiawan, Iwan; Mansor, Shattri; Shariff, Abdul Rashid Mohamed; Pradhan, Biswajeet; Nuruddin, Ahmed

2009-12-01

A study in modeling fire hazard assessment will be essential in establishing an effective forest fire management system especially in controlling and preventing peat fire. In this paper, we have used geographic information system (GIS), in combination with other geoinformation technologies such as remote sensing and computer modeling, for all aspects of wild land fire management. Identifying areas that have a high probability of burning is an important component of fire management planning. The development of spatially explicit GIS models has greatly facilitated this process by allowing managers to map and analyze variables contributing to fire occurrence across large, unique geographic units. Using the model and its associated software engine, the fire hazard map was produced. Extensive avenue programming scripts were written to provide additional capabilities in the development of these interfaces to meet the full complement of operational software considering various users requirements. The system developed not only possesses user friendly step by step operations to deliver the fire vulnerability mapping but also allows authorized users to edit, add or modify parameters whenever necessary. Results from the model can support fire hazard mapping in the forest and enhance alert system function by simulating and visualizing forest fire and helps for contingency planning.

44 CFR 65.3 - Requirement to submit new technical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... technical data. 65.3 Section 65.3 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY... IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.3 Requirement to submit new technical data. A community's base flood elevations may increase or decrease resulting from physical changes affecting flooding...

44 CFR 65.15 - List of communities submitting new technical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false List of communities... Program IDENTIFICATION AND MAPPING OF SPECIAL HAZARD AREAS § 65.15 List of communities submitting new technical data. This section provides a cumulative list of communities where modifications of the base flood...

Intrinsic vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping for karst aquifers: A case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mimi, Ziad A.; Assi, Amjad

2009-01-01

SummaryGroundwater from karst aquifers is among the most important resources of drinking water supply of the worldwide population. The European COST action 620 proposed a comprehensive approach to karst groundwater protection, comprising methods of intrinsic and specific vulnerability mapping, hazard and risk mapping. This paper presents the first application of all components of this European approach to the groundwater underlying the Ramallah district, a karst hydrogeology system in Palestine. The vulnerability maps which were developed can assist in the implementation of groundwater management strategies to prevent degradation of groundwater quality. Large areas in the case study area can be classified as low or very low risk area corresponding to the pollution sources due to the absence of hazards and also due to low vulnerabilities. These areas could consequently be interesting for future development as they are preferable in view of ground water protection.

The development of flood map in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakaria, Siti Fairus; Zin, Rosli Mohamad; Mohamad, Ismail; Balubaid, Saeed; Mydin, Shaik Hussein; MDR, E. M. Roodienyanto

2017-11-01

In Malaysia, flash floods are common occurrences throughout the year in flood prone areas. In terms of flood extent, flash floods affect smaller areas but because of its tendency to occur in densely urbanized areas, the value of damaged property is high and disruption to traffic flow and businesses are substantial. However, in river floods especially the river floods of Kelantan and Pahang, the flood extent is widespread and can extend over 1,000 square kilometers. Although the value of property and density of affected population is lower, the damage inflicted by these floods can also be high because the area affected is large. In order to combat these floods, various flood mitigation measures have been carried out. Structural flood mitigation alone can only provide protection levels from 10 to 100 years Average Recurrence Intervals (ARI). One of the economically effective non-structural approaches in flood mitigation and flood management is using a geospatial technology which involves flood forecasting and warning services to the flood prone areas. This approach which involves the use of Geographical Information Flood Forecasting system also includes the generation of a series of flood maps. There are three types of flood maps namely Flood Hazard Map, Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map. Flood Hazard Map is used to determine areas susceptible to flooding when discharge from a stream exceeds the bank-full stage. Early warnings of incoming flood events will enable the flood victims to prepare themselves before flooding occurs. Properties and life's can be saved by keeping their movable properties above the flood levels and if necessary, an early evacuation from the area. With respect to flood fighting, an early warning with reference through a series of flood maps including flood hazard map, flood risk map and flood evacuation map of the approaching flood should be able to alert the organization in charge of the flood fighting actions and the authority to undertake the necessary decisions, and the general public to be aware of the impending danger. However this paper will only discuss on the generations of Flood Hazard Maps and the use of Flood Risk Map and Flood Evacuation Map by using geospatial data.

Development of a methodology to assess man-made risks in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borst, D.; Jung, D.; Murshed, S. M.; Werner, U.

2006-09-01

Risk is a concept used to describe future potential outcomes of certain actions or events. Within the project "CEDIM - Risk Map Germany - Man-made Hazards" it is intended to develop methods for assessing and mapping the risk due to different human-induced hazards. This is a task that has not been successfully performed for Germany so far. Concepts of catastrophe modelling are employed including the spatial modelling of hazard, the compilation of different kinds of exposed elements, the estimation of their vulnerability and the direct loss potential in terms of human life and health. The paper is divided in two sections: First, an analytic framework for assessing the broad spectrum of human-induced risks is introduced. This approach is then applied for three important types of human-induced hazards that are representative for a whole class of hazards: Accidents due to nuclear power plants (NPP) or air traffic, and terrorism. For the analysis of accidents, risk is measured with respect to getting injured or dying when living in certain buffer zones around hazard locations. NPP hazard expert knowledge is used and supplemented with observations on aging effects leading to a proprietary index value for the risk. Air traffic risk is modelled as an area related phenomenon based on available accident statistics leading to an expected value of risk. Terrorism risk is assessed by the attraction certain elements (like embassies in the case of conventional threats) display in the eye of potential aggressors. For non-conventional targets like football games, a detailed approach measuring their susceptibility to different kinds of attacks within predefined scenarios was developed; this also allows a ranking of attack modes.

Geologic Map of the Carlton Quadrangle, Yamhill County, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wheeler, Karen L.; Wells, Ray E.; Minervini, Joseph M.; Block, Jessica L.

2009-01-01

The Carlton, Oregon, 7.5-minute quadrangle is located in northwestern Oregon, about 35 miles (57 km) southwest of Portland. It encompasses the towns of Yamhill and Carlton in the northwestern Willamette Valley and extends into the eastern flank of the Oregon Coast Range. The Carlton quadrangle is one of several dozen quadrangles being mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) to provide a framework for earthquake- hazard assessments in the greater Portland, Oregon, metropolitan area. The focus of USGS mapping is on the structural setting of the northern Willamette Valley and its relation to the Coast Range uplift. Mapping was done in collaboration with soil scientists from the National Resource Conservation Service, and the distribution of geologic units is refined over earlier regional mapping (Schlicker and Deacon, 1967). Geologic mapping was done on 7.5-minute topographic base maps and digitized in ArcGIS to produce ArcGIS geodatabases and PDFs of the map and text. The geologic contacts are based on numerous observations and samples collected in 2002 and 2003, National Resource Conservation Service soils maps, and interpretations of 7.5-minute topography. The map was completed before new, high-resolution laser terrain mapping was flown for parts of the northern Willamette Valley in 2008.

Preliminary Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Map for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Basili, Roberto; Grezio, Anita; Molinari, Irene; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Tonini, Roberto; Bonini, Lorenzo; Michelini, Alberto; Macias, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; de la Asunción, Marc

2015-04-01

We present a preliminary release of the first seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard map for Italy. The map aims to become an important tool for the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC), as well as a support tool for the NEAMTWS Tsunami Service Provider, the Centro Allerta Tsunami (CAT) at INGV, Rome. The map shows the offshore maximum tsunami elevation expected for several average return periods. Both crustal and subduction earthquakes are considered. The probability for each scenario (location, depth, mechanism, source size, magnitude and temporal rate) is defined on a uniform grid covering the entire Mediterranean for crustal earthquakes and on the plate interface for subduction earthquakes. Activity rates are assigned from seismic catalogues and basing on a tectonic regionalization of the Mediterranean area. The methodology explores the associated aleatory uncertainty through the innovative application of an Event Tree. Main sources of epistemic uncertainty are also addressed although in preliminary way. The whole procedure relies on a database of pre-calculated Gaussian-shaped Green's functions for the sea level elevation, to be used also as a real time hazard assessment tool by CAT. Tsunami simulations are performed using the non-linear shallow water multi-GPU code HySEA, over a 30 arcsec bathymetry (from the SRTM30+ dataset) and the maximum elevations are stored at the 50-meter isobath and then extrapolated through the Green's law at 1 meter depth. This work is partially funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839, and by the Italian flagship project RITMARE.

Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

2015-12-01

As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these maps better than the general public. This study's findings will be provided to emergency managers to assist in the development of educational programs and response plans.

Evaluate ERTS imagery for mapping and detection of changes of snowcover on land and on glaciers. [Cascade Mountains

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meier, M. F. (Principal Investigator)

1974-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Snowlines on a small drainage basin were accurately identified on bulk ERTS-1 images without use of digital processing, and results checked with high altitude and ground-based photography. The area and approximate shape of snow patches as small as 20,000 sq m could be correctly identified with a magnifying scanning densitometer. The resolution of ERTS is more than ample for most snow mapping needs. Mount Baker, Washington, has a large crater south of the summit and an area north of the summit which emit considerable geothermal heat in the form of fumaroles and hot ground. Temperatures are being monitored using an ERTS DCS. Debris flows are occassionally released from the crater due to water saturation at the base of a heavy snowpack lying on hydrothermally altered hot ground. These debris flows present a possible hazard to life and property, as they are discharged down the Boulder Glacier toward Baker Lake, the upper of two major hydroelectric power reservoirs which are situated above the populated Skagit River Valley. ERTS-1 images show that the most recent debris flow (20-21 August 1973) can be clearly discerned and mapped. ERTS images provide another important tool for monitoring this potential hazard.

Geological hazard zonation in a marble exploitation area (Apuan Alps, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francioni, M.; Salvini, R.; Riccucci, S.

2011-12-01

The present paper describes the hazard mapping of an exploitation area sited in the Apuan Alps marble district (Italy) carried out by the integration of various survey and analysis methodologies. The research, supported by the Massa and Carrara Local Sanitary Agency responsible for workplace health and safety activities, aimed to reduce the high degree hazard of rock fall caused by the presence of potentially unstable blocks located on slopes overhanging the marble quarries. The study of rocky fronts bases on the knowledge of both the structural setting and the physical-mechanical properties of intact material and its discontinuities. In this work the main difficulty in obtaining this information was the inaccessibility of the slope overhanging the area (up to 500 meters high). For this reason, the structural and geological-engineering surveys were integrated by outcomes from digital photogrammetry carried out through terrestrial stereoscopic photos acquired from an aerostatic balloon and a helicopter. In this way, it was possible to derive the geometrical characteristics of joints (such as discontinuities dip, dip direction, spacing and persistence), blocks volumes and slopes morphology also in inaccessible areas. This information, combined with data coming from the geological-engineering survey, was used to perform the stability analysis of the slope. Subsequently, using the topographic map at the scale of 1:2,000, the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the slopes and several topographic profiles along it were produced. Assuming that there is a good correspondence between travelling paths and maximum down slope angle, probable trajectories of rock fall along the slope were calculated on the DTM by means of a GIS procedure which utilizes the ArcHydro module of EsriTM ArcMap software. When performing such a 2D numerical modelling of rock falls, lateral dispersion of trajectories has often been hampered by the "a priori" choice of the travelling path. Such a choice can be assessed largely subjective and it leads to possible errors. Thus, rock fall hazard zonation needs spatially distributed analyses including a reliable modelling of lateral dispersion. In this research Conefall software, a freeware QuanterraTM code that estimates the potential run out areas by means of a "so-called" cone method, was used to compute the spatial distribution of rock falls frequency, velocities and kinetic energies. In this way, a modelling approach based on local morphologies was employed to assess the accuracy of the 2D analysis by profiles created "a priori" along the maximum down slope angle. Final results about slope stability and run out analysis allowed to create rock fall hazard map and to advise the most suitable protection works to mitigate the hazard in the most risky sites.

Surficial Geologic Map of the Tanacross B-4 Quadrangle, East-Central Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carrara, Paul E.

2006-01-01

The Tanacross B-4 1:63,360-scale quadrangle, through which the Alaska Highway runs, is in east-central Alaska about 100 mi west of the Yukon border. The surficial geologic mapping in the quadrangle is in support of the 'Geologic Mapping in support of land, resources, and hazards issues in Alaska' Project of the USGS National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Program. The Tanacross B-4 quadrangle contains parts of two physiographic provinces, the Yukon-Tanana Upland and the Northway-Tanana Lowland. The gently rolling hills of the Yukon-Tanana Upland, in the northern and eastern map area, rise to about 3,100 ft. The Northway-Tanana Lowland, in the western and southern map area, contains the westerly flowing Tanana River. Elevations along the floor of the lowland generally range between 1,540 and 1,700 ft. The dominant feature within the map is the Tok fan, which occupies about 20 percent of the map area. This large, nearly featureless fan contains a high percentage of volcanic clasts derived from outside the present-day drainage of the Tok River. The map provides interpretations of the Quaternary surficial deposits and associated geologic hazards in this area of the upper Tanana valley. Because the map area is dominated by various surficial deposits, the map depicts 13 different Quaternary surficial units consisting of man-made, alluvial, colluvial, organic, lacustrine, and eolian deposits. Deposits shown on this map are generally greater than 1 m thick. The map is accompanied by a text containing unit descriptions incorporating information pertaining to material type, location, associated hazards, resource use (if any), and thickness.

Characterizing the nature and variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shandro, Bret; Haegeli, Pascal

2018-04-01

The snow and avalanche climate types maritime, continental and transitional are well established and have been used extensively to characterize the general nature of avalanche hazard at a location, study inter-seasonal and large-scale spatial variabilities and provide context for the design of avalanche safety operations. While researchers and practitioners have an experience-based understanding of the avalanche hazard associated with the three climate types, no studies have described the hazard character of an avalanche climate in detail. Since the 2009/2010 winter, the consistent use of Statham et al. (2017) conceptual model of avalanche hazard in public avalanche bulletins in Canada has created a new quantitative record of avalanche hazard that offers novel opportunities for addressing this knowledge gap. We identified typical daily avalanche hazard situations using self-organizing maps (SOMs) and then calculated seasonal prevalence values of these situations. This approach produces a concise characterization that is conducive to statistical analyses, but still provides a comprehensive picture that is informative for avalanche risk management due to its link to avalanche problem types. Hazard situation prevalence values for individual seasons, elevations bands and forecast regions provide unprecedented insight into the inter-seasonal and spatial variability of avalanche hazard in western Canada.

New Tsunami Inundation Maps for California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose; Uslu, Burak; Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

2010-05-01

California is the first US State to complete its tsunami inundation mapping. A new generation of tsunami inundation maps is now available for 17 coastal counties.. The new maps offer improved coverage for many areas, they are based on the most recent descriptions of potential tsunami farfield and nearfield sources and use the best available bathymetric and topographic data for modelling. The need for new tsunami maps for California became clear since Synolakis et al (1998) described how inundation projections derived with inundation models that fully calculate the wave evolution over dry land can be as high as twice the values predicted with earlier threshold models, for tsunamis originating from tectonic source. Since the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami when the hazard from offshore submarine landslides was better understood (Bardet et al, 2003), the State of California funded the development of the first generation of maps, based on local tectonic and landslide sources. Most of the hazard was dominated by offshore landslides, whose return period remains unknown but is believed to be higher than 1000 years for any given locale, at least in Southern California. The new generation of maps incorporates local and distant scenarios. The partnership between the Tsunami Research Center at USC, the California Emergency Management Agency and the California Seismic Safety Commission let the State to be the first among all US States to complete the maps. (Exceptions include the offshore islands and Newport Beach, where higher resolution maps are under way). The maps were produced with the lowest cost per mile of coastline, per resident or per map than all other States, because of the seamless integration of the USC and NOAA databases and the use of the MOST model. They are a significant improvement over earlier map generations. As part of a continuous improvement in response, mitigation and planning and community education, the California inundation maps can contribute in reducing tsunami risk. References -Bardet, JP et al (2003), Landslide tsunamis: Recent findings and research directions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 160, (10-11), 1793-1809. -Eisner, R., Borrero, C., Synolakis, C.E. (2001) Inundation Maps for the State of California, International Tsunami Symposium, ITS 2001 Proceedings, NHTMP Review Paper #4, 67-81. -Synolakis, C.E., D. McCarthy, V.V. Titov, J.C. Borrero, (1998) Evaluating the Tsunami Risk in California, CALIFORNIA AND THE WORLD OCEAN '97, 1225-1236, Proceedings ASCE, ISBN: 0-7844-0297-3.

Seismic maps foster landmark legislation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherdt, Roger D.; Brown, Robert B.; Page, Robert A.; Wentworth, Carl M.; Hendley, James W.

1995-01-01

When a powerful earthquake strikes an urban region, damage concentrates not only near the quake's source. Damage can also occur many miles from the source in areas of soft ground. In recent years, scientists have developed ways to identify and map these areas of high seismic hazard. This advance has spurred pioneering legislation to reduce earthquake losses in areas of greatest hazard.

Landslide Hazard Mapping in Rwanda Using Logistic Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piller, A.; Anderson, E.; Ballard, H.

2015-12-01

Landslides in the United States cause more than $1 billion in damages and 50 deaths per year (USGS 2014). Globally, figures are much more grave, yet monitoring, mapping and forecasting of these hazards are less than adequate. Seventy-five percent of the population of Rwanda earns a living from farming, mostly subsistence. Loss of farmland, housing, or life, to landslides is a very real hazard. Landslides in Rwanda have an impact at the economic, social, and environmental level. In a developing nation that faces challenges in tracking, cataloging, and predicting the numerous landslides that occur each year, satellite imagery and spatial analysis allow for remote study. We have focused on the development of a landslide inventory and a statistical methodology for assessing landslide hazards. Using logistic regression on approximately 30 test variables (i.e. slope, soil type, land cover, etc.) and a sample of over 200 landslides, we determine which variables are statistically most relevant to landslide occurrence in Rwanda. A preliminary predictive hazard map for Rwanda has been produced, using the variables selected from the logistic regression analysis.

Landslide Hazard from Coupled Inherent and Dynamic Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, R. L.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Nudurupati, S. S.

2015-12-01

Landslide hazard research has typically been conducted independently from hydroclimate research. We sought to unify these two lines of research to provide regional scale landslide hazard information for risk assessments and resource management decision-making. Our approach couples an empirical inherent landslide probability, based on a frequency ratio analysis, with a numerical dynamic probability, generated by combining subsurface water recharge and surface runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macro-scale land surface hydrologic model with a finer resolution probabilistic slope stability model. Landslide hazard mapping is advanced by combining static and dynamic models of stability into a probabilistic measure of geohazard prediction in both space and time. This work will aid resource management decision-making in current and future landscape and climatic conditions. The approach is applied as a case study in North Cascade National Park Complex in northern Washington State.

Evaluation of Landslide Mapping Techniques and LiDAR-based Conditioning Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahalingam, R.; Olsen, M. J.

2014-12-01

Landslides are a major geohazard, which result in significant human, infrastructure, and economic losses. Landslide susceptibility mapping can help communities to plan and prepare for these damaging events. Mapping landslide susceptible locations using GIS and remote sensing techniques is gaining popularity in the past three decades. These efforts use a wide variety of procedures and consider a wide range of factors. Unfortunately, each study is often completed differently and independently of others. Further, the quality of the datasets used varies in terms of source, data collection, and generation, which can propagate errors or inconsistencies into the resulting output maps. Light detection and ranging (LiDAR) has proved to have higher accuracy in representing the continuous topographic surface, which can help minimize this uncertainty. The primary objectives of this paper are to investigate the applicability and performance of terrain factors in landslide hazard mapping, determine if LiDAR-derived datasets (slope, slope roughness, terrain roughness, stream power index and compound topographic index) can be used for predictive mapping without data representing other common landslide conditioning factors, and evaluate the differences in landslide susceptibility mapping using widely-used statistical approaches. The aforementioned factors were used to produce landslide susceptibility maps for a 140 km2 study area in northwest Oregon using six representative techniques: frequency ratio, weights of evidence, logistic regression, discriminant analysis, artificial neural network, and support vector machine. Most notably, the research showed an advantage in selecting fewer critical conditioning factors. The most reliable factors all could be derived from a single LiDAR DEM, reducing the need for laborious and costly data gathering. Most of the six techniques showed similar statistical results; however, ANN showed less accuracy for predictive mapping. Keywords : LiDAR, Landslides, Oregon, Inventory, Hazard

LAV@HAZARD: a Web-GIS Framework for Real-Time Forecasting of Lava Flow Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.

2014-12-01

Crucial to lava flow hazard assessment is the development of tools for real-time prediction of flow paths, flow advance rates, and final flow lengths. Accurate prediction of flow paths and advance rates requires not only rapid assessment of eruption conditions (especially effusion rate) but also improved models of lava flow emplacement. Here we present the LAV@HAZARD web-GIS framework, which combines spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations for real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards. By using satellite-derived discharge rates to drive a lava flow emplacement model, LAV@HAZARD allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We take advantage of the flexibility of the HOTSAT thermal monitoring system to process satellite images coming from sensors with different spatial, temporal and spectral resolutions. HOTSAT was designed to ingest infrared satellite data acquired by the MODIS and SEVIRI sensors to output hot spot location, lava thermal flux and discharge rate. We use LAV@HAZARD to merge this output with the MAGFLOW physics-based model to simulate lava flow paths and to update, in a timely manner, flow simulations. Thus, any significant changes in lava discharge rate are included in the predictions. A significant benefit in terms of computational speed was obtained thanks to the parallel implementation of MAGFLOW on graphic processing units (GPUs). All this useful information has been gathered into the LAV@HAZARD platform which, due to the high degree of interactivity, allows generation of easily readable maps and a fast way to explore alternative scenarios. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this framework using a variety of case studies pertaining to Mt Etna, Sicily. Although this study was conducted on Mt Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas around the world.

Farm Mapping to Assist, Protect, and Prepare Emergency Responders: Farm MAPPER.

PubMed

Reyes, Iris; Rollins, Tami; Mahnke, Andrea; Kadolph, Christopher; Minor, Gerald; Keifer, Matthew

2014-01-01

Responders such as firefighters and emergency medical technicians who respond to farm emergencies often face complex and unknown environments. They may encounter hazards such as fuels, solvents, pesticides, caustics, and exploding gas storage cylinders. Responders may be unaware of dirt roads within the farm that can expedite their arrival at critical sites or snow-covered manure pits that act as hidden hazards. A response to a farm, unless guided by someone familiar with the operation, may present a risk to responders and post a challenge in locating the victim. This project explored the use of a Web-based farm-mapping application optimized for tablets and accessible via easily accessible on-site matrix barcodes, or quick response codes (QR codes), to provide emergency responders with hazard and resource information to agricultural operations. Secured portals were developed for both farmers and responders, allowing both parties to populate and customize farm maps with icons. Data were stored online and linked to QR codes attached to mailbox posts where emergency responders may read them with a mobile device. Mock responses were conducted on dairy farms to test QR code linking efficacy, Web site security, and field usability. Findings from farmer usability tests showed willingness to enter data as well as ease of Web site navigation and data entry even with farmers who had limited computer knowledge. Usability tests with emergency responders showed ease of QR code connectivity to the farm maps and ease of Web site navigation. Further research is needed to improve data security as well as assess the program's applicability to nonfarm environments and integration with existing emergency response systems. The next phases of this project will expand the program for regional and national use, develop QR code-linked, Web-based extrication guidance for farm machinery for victim entrapment rescue, and create QR code-linked online training videos and materials for limited English proficient immigrant farm workers.

Plenary: Progress in Regional Landslide Hazard Assessment—Examples from the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Schulz, William; Brien, Dianne L.; Burns, William J.; Reid, Mark E.; Godt, Jonathan W.

2014-01-01

Landslide hazard assessment at local and regional scales contributes to mitigation of landslides in developing and densely populated areas by providing information for (1) land development and redevelopment plans and regulations, (2) emergency preparedness plans, and (3) economic analysis to (a) set priorities for engineered mitigation projects and (b) define areas of similar levels of hazard for insurance purposes. US Geological Survey (USGS) research on landslide hazard assessment has explored a range of methods that can be used to estimate temporal and spatial landslide potential and probability for various scales and purposes. Cases taken primarily from our work in the U.S. Pacific Northwest illustrate and compare a sampling of methods, approaches, and progress. For example, landform mapping using high-resolution topographic data resulted in identification of about four times more landslides in Seattle, Washington, than previous efforts using aerial photography. Susceptibility classes based on the landforms captured 93 % of all historical landslides (all types) throughout the city. A deterministic model for rainfall infiltration and shallow landslide initiation, TRIGRS, was able to identify locations of 92 % of historical shallow landslides in southwest Seattle. The potentially unstable areas identified by TRIGRS occupied only 26 % of the slope areas steeper than 20°. Addition of an unsaturated infiltration model to TRIGRS expands the applicability of the model to areas of highly permeable soils. Replacement of the single cell, 1D factor of safety with a simple 3D method of columns improves accuracy of factor of safety predictions for both saturated and unsaturated infiltration models. A 3D deterministic model for large, deep landslides, SCOOPS, combined with a three-dimensional model for groundwater flow, successfully predicted instability in steep areas of permeable outwash sand and topographic reentrants. These locations are consistent with locations of large, deep, historically active landslides. For an area in Seattle, a composite of the three maps illustrates how maps produced by different approaches might be combined to assess overall landslide potential. Examples from Oregon, USA, illustrate how landform mapping and deterministic analysis for shallow landslide potential have been adapted into standardized methods for efficiently producing detailed landslide inventory and shallow landslide susceptibility maps that have consistent content and format statewide.

Flood maps in Europe - methods, availability and use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Moel, H.; van Alphen, J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2009-03-01

To support the transition from traditional flood defence strategies to a flood risk management approach at the basin scale in Europe, the EU has adopted a new Directive (2007/60/EC) at the end of 2007. One of the major tasks which member states must carry out in order to comply with this Directive is to map flood hazards and risks in their territory, which will form the basis of future flood risk management plans. This paper gives an overview of existing flood mapping practices in 29 countries in Europe and shows what maps are already available and how such maps are used. Roughly half of the countries considered have maps covering as good as their entire territory, and another third have maps covering significant parts of their territory. Only five countries have very limited or no flood maps available yet. Of the different flood maps distinguished, it appears that flood extent maps are the most commonly produced floods maps (in 23 countries), but flood depth maps are also regularly created (in seven countries). Very few countries have developed flood risk maps that include information on the consequences of flooding. The available flood maps are mostly developed by governmental organizations and primarily used for emergency planning, spatial planning, and awareness raising. In spatial planning, flood zones delimited on flood maps mainly serve as guidelines and are not binding. Even in the few countries (e.g. France, Poland) where there is a legal basis to regulate floodplain developments using flood zones, practical problems are often faced which reduce the mitigating effect of such binding legislation. Flood maps, also mainly extent maps, are also created by the insurance industry in Europe and used to determine insurability, differentiate premiums, or to assess long-term financial solvency. Finally, flood maps are also produced by international river commissions. With respect to the EU Flood Directive, many countries already have a good starting point to map their flood hazards. A flood risk based map that includes consequences, however, has yet to be developed by most countries.

High resolution mapping of flood hazard for South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Sourima; Nzerem, Kechi; Zovi, Francesco; Li, Shuangcai; Mei, Yi; Assteerawatt, Anongnart; Hilberts, Arno; Tillmanns, Stephan; Mitas, Christos

2015-04-01

Floods are one of primary natural hazards that affect South Korea. During the past 15 years, catastrophic flood events which mainly have occurred during the rainy and typhoon seasons - especially under condition where soils are already saturated, have triggered substantial property damage with an average annual loss of around US1.2 billion (determined from WAter Management Information System's flood damage database for years 2002-2011) in South Korea. According to Seoul Metropolitan Government, over 16,000 households in the capital city Seoul were inundated during 2010 flood events. More than 10,000 households in Seoul were apparently flooded during one major flood event due to torrential rain in July 2011. Recently in August 2014, a serious flood event due to heavy rainfall hit the Busan region in the south east of South Korea. Addressing the growing needs, RMS has recently released country-wide high resolution combined flood return period maps for post-drainage local "pluvial" inundation and undefended large-scale "fluvial" inundation to aid the government and the insurance industry in the evaluation of comprehensive flood risk. RMS has developed a flood hazard model for South Korea to generate inundation depths and extents for a range of flood return periods. The model is initiated with 30 years of historical meteorological forcing data and calibrated to daily observations at over 100 river gauges across the country. Simulations of hydrologic processes are subsequently performed based on a 2000 year set of stochastic forcing. Floodplain inundation processes are modelled by numerically solving the shallow water equations using finite volume method on GPUs. Taking into account the existing stormwater drainage standards, economic exposure densities, etc., reasonable flood maps are created from inundation model output. Final hazard maps at one arcsec grid resolution can be the basis for both evaluating and managing flood risk, its economic impacts, and insured flood losses in South Korea.

Regional landslide hazard assesment for Kulon Progo Area, Central Java, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karnawati, D.

2009-12-01

Karanganyar region is situated in a dynamic volcanic region in Java Island, where rain-induced landslides are frequent and widespread. Shallow-rapid earth slides triggered by heavy rainfall are the most common landslide type occurring on the steep slope and had resulted in major casualties, whilst deep soil creeping is more prominant on the gentle slope which creat a lot of damages on the houses and infrastructure. A landslide hazard assessment had been conducted to support the landslide mitigation program in this region. Such assessment was carried out by applying a semi qualitative approach (Analytical Hierarchical Process) where a weighting system was applied to assess the level of importance of each controlling parameter as suggested by Saaty (1980). Existing conditions of each controlling parameters were also assessed based on relative hierarchical system by applying scoring. Geographical Information System was used as a tool in such analysis and mapping process. The isohyet map was also prepared from statistical and spatial analyses on rain fall data. Finally, two different scenarios of landslide hazard maps were established, i.e. the scenario without any rainfall (Scenario 1) and with the reainfall (Scenario 2). It was found that the most susceptible zone of landslide was localised on the steep slope (with the inclination beyond 45o ) of jointed andesitic breccia, which was covered by thinck silty clay and situated close to the stream zone (Scenario 1). However from the hazard map and analysis on scenario 2, it can be identified that the susceptible zone expanded larger due to the rainfall, covering most region of the west-slope area of Lawu Volcano. Therefore, it can be concluded that the rainfall intensity is very crucial to induce the landslide not only in the most susceptible zone, but also in the larger area which also include the less susceptbile zone. This findings is also crucial to support the development of landslide spatial-early-warning system in the region.

The ASTER Volcano Archive (AVA): High Spatial Resolution Global Monitoring of Volcanic Eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linick, J. P.; Pieri, D. C.; Davies, A. G.; Reath, K.; Mars, J. C.; Hubbard, B. E.; Sanchez, R. M.; Tan, H. L.

2017-12-01

The ASTER Volcano Archive (AVA) is a data system focused on collecting and cataloguing higher level remote sensing data products for all Holocene volcanoes over the last several decades, producing volcanogenic science products for global detection, mapping, and modeling of effusive eruptions at high spatial resolution, and providing rapid bulk dissemination of relevant data products to the science community at large. Space-based optical platforms such as ASTER, EO-1, and Landsat, are a critical component for global monitoring systems to provide the capability for volcanic hazard assessment and modeling, and are a vital addition to in-situ measurements. The AVA leverages these instruments for the automated generation of lava flow emplacement maps, sulfur dioxide monitoring, thermal anomaly detection, and modeling of integrated thermal emission across the world's volcanoes. Additionally, we provide slope classified alteration and lahar inundation maps with potential inundation zones for certain relevant volcanoes. We explore the AVA's data product retrieval API, and describe how scientists can rapidly retrieve bulk products using the AVA platform with a focus on practical applications for both general analysis and hazard response.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Androscoggin County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed and as funds allow. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Androscoggin County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Androscoggin County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) Database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Androscoggin County, Maine, is at least 17 years. Most studies were published in the early 1990s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study date. Since the studies were done, development has occurred in many of the watersheds and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Scoping of Flood Hazard Mapping Needs for Lincoln County, Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schalk, Charles W.; Dudley, Robert W.

2007-01-01

Background The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) developed a plan in 1997 to modernize the FEMA flood mapping program. FEMA flood maps delineate flood hazard areas in support of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). FEMA's plan outlined the steps necessary to update FEMA's flood maps for the nation to a seamless digital format and streamline FEMA's operations in raising public awareness of the importance of the maps and responding to requests to revise them. The modernization of flood maps involves conversion of existing information to digital format and integration of improved flood hazard data as needed. To determine flood mapping modernization needs, FEMA has established specific scoping activities to be done on a county-by-county basis for identifying and prioritizing requisite flood-mapping activities for map modernization. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with FEMA and the Maine Floodplain Management Program (MFMP) State Planning Office, began scoping work in 2006 for Lincoln County. Scoping activities included assembling existing data and map needs information for communities in Lincoln County, documentation of data, contacts, community meetings, and prioritized mapping needs in a final scoping report (this document), and updating the Mapping Needs Update Support System (MNUSS) database with information gathered during the scoping process. The average age of the FEMA floodplain maps in Lincoln County, Maine is at least 17 years. Many of these studies were published in the mid- to late-1980s, and some towns have partial maps that are more recent than their study. However, in the ensuing 15-20 years, development has occurred in many of the watersheds, and the characteristics of the watersheds have changed with time. Therefore, many of the older studies may not depict current conditions nor accurately estimate risk in terms of flood heights or flood mapping.

Seismic hazard in the eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, Charles; Boyd, Oliver; Petersen, Mark D.; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Shumway, Allison

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey seismic hazard maps for the central and eastern United States were updated in 2014. We analyze results and changes for the eastern part of the region. Ratio maps are presented, along with tables of ground motions and deaggregations for selected cities. The Charleston fault model was revised, and a new fault source for Charlevoix was added. Background seismicity sources utilized an updated catalog, revised completeness and recurrence models, and a new adaptive smoothing procedure. Maximum-magnitude models and ground motion models were also updated. Broad, regional hazard reductions of 5%–20% are mostly attributed to new ground motion models with stronger near-source attenuation. The revised Charleston fault geometry redistributes local hazard, and the new Charlevoix source increases hazard in northern New England. Strong increases in mid- to high-frequency hazard at some locations—for example, southern New Hampshire, central Virginia, and eastern Tennessee—are attributed to updated catalogs and/or smoothing.

Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

2017-07-01

Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

Lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Southern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crisci, G. M.; Iovine, G.; Di Gregorio, S.; Lupiano, V.

2008-11-01

A method for mapping lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Southern Italy) by applying the Cellular Automata model SCIARA -fv is described, together with employed techniques of calibration and validation through a parallel Genetic Algorithm. The study area is partly urbanised; it has repeatedly been affected by lava flows from flank eruptions in historical time, and shows evidence of a dominant SSE-trending fracture system. Moreover, a dormant deep-seated gravitational deformation, associated with a larger volcano-tectonic phenomenon, affects the whole south-eastern flank of the volcano. The Etnean 2001 Mt. Calcarazzi lava-flow event has been selected for model calibration, while validation has been performed by considering the 2002 Linguaglossa and the 1991-93 Valle del Bove events — suitable data for back analysis being available for these recent eruptions. Quantitative evaluation of the simulations, with respect to the real events, has been performed by means of a couple of fitness functions, which consider either the areas affected by the lava flows, or areas and eruption duration. Sensitivity analyses are in progress for thoroughly evaluating the role of parameters, topographic input data, and mesh geometry on model performance; though, preliminary results have already given encouraging responses on model robustness. In order to evaluate lava-flow hazard in the study area, a regular grid of n.340 possible vents, uniformly covering the study area and located at 500 m intervals, has been hypothesised. For each vent, a statistically-significant number of simulations has been planned, by adopting combinations of durations, lava volumes, and effusion-rate functions, selected by considering available volcanological data. Performed simulations have been stored in a GIS environment for successive analyses and map elaboration. Probabilities of activation, empirically based on past behaviour of the volcano, can be assigned to each vent of the grid, by considering its elevation, location with respect to the volcanic edifice, and proximity to its main weakness zones. Similarly, different probabilities can be assigned to the simulated event types (combinations of durations and lava volumes, and to the effusion-rate functions considered). In such a way, an implicit assumption is made that the volcanic style will not dramatically change in the near future. Depending on adopted criteria for probability evaluation, different maps of lava-flow hazard can be compiled, by taking into account both the overlapping of the simulated lava flows and their assumed probabilities, and by finally ranking computed values into few relative classes. The adopted methodology allows to rapidly exploring changes in lava-flow hazard as a function of varying probabilities of occurrence, by simply re-processing the database of the simulations stored in the GIS. For Civil Protection purposes, in case of expected imminent opening of a vent in a given sector of the volcano, re-processing may help in real-time forecasting the presumable affected areas, and thus in better managing the eruptive crisis. Moreover, further simulations can be added to the GIS data base at any time new different event types were recognised to be of interest. In this paper, three examples of maps of lava-flow hazard for the SE flank of Mt. Etna are presented: the first has been realised without assigning any probability to the performed simulations, by simply counting the frequencies of lava flows affecting each site; in the second map, information on past eruptions is taken into account, and probabilities are empirically attributed to each simulation based on location of vents and types of eruption; in the third one, a stronger role is ascribed to the main SSE-trending weakness zone, which crosses the study area between Nicolosi and Trecastagni, associated with the right flank of the above-cited deep-seated deformation. Despite being only preliminary (as based on a sub-set of the overall planned simulations), the maps clearly depict the most hazardous sectors of the volcano, which have been identified by applying the coupled modelling-GIS method here described.

Swift delineation of flood-prone areas over large European regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Castellarin, Attilio; Manfreda, Salvatore; Samela, Caterina; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Mazzoli, Paolo; Luzzi, Valerio; Bagli, Stefano

2017-04-01

According to the European Environment Agency (EEA Report No 1/2016), a significant share of the European population is estimated to be living on or near a floodplain, with Italy having the highest population density in flood-prone areas among the countries analysed. This tendency, tied with event frequency and magnitude (e.g.: the 24/11/2016 floods in Italy) and the fact that river floods may occur at large scales and at a transboundary level, where data is often sparse, presents a challenge in flood-risk management. The availability of consistent flood hazard and risk maps during prevention, preparedness, response and recovery phases are a valuable and important step forward in improving the effectiveness, efficiency and robustness of evidence-based decision making. The present work aims at testing and discussing the usefulness of pattern recognition techniques based on geomorphologic indices (Manfreda et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2011, Degiorgis et al., J Hydrol., 2012, Samela et al., J. Hydrol. Eng., 2015) for the simplified mapping of river flood-prone areas at large scales. The techniques are applied to 25m Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Danube, Po and Severn river watersheds, obtained from the Copernicus data and information funded by the European Union - EU-DEM layers. Results are compared to the Pan-European flood hazard maps derived by Alfieri et al. (Hydrol. Proc., 2013) using a set of distributed hydrological (LISFLOOD, van der Knijff et al., Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 2010, employed within the European Flood Awareness System, www.efas.eu) and hydraulic models (LISFLOOD-FP, Bates and De Roo, J. Hydrol., 2000). Our study presents different calibration and cross-validation exercises of the DEM-based mapping algorithms to assess to which extent, and with which accuracy, they can be reproduced over different regions of Europe. This work is being developed under the System-Risk project (www.system-risk.eu) that received funding from the European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation Horizon 2020 under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No. 676027. Keywords: flood hazard, data-scarce regions, large-scale studies, pattern recognition, linear binary classifiers, basin geomorphology, DEM.

Geology, tephrochronology, radiometric ages, and cross sections of the Mark West Springs 7.5' quadrangle, Sonoma and Napa counties, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

McLaughlin, R.J.; Sarna-Wojicki, A. M.; Fleck, R.J.; Wright, W.H.; Levin, V.R.G.; Valin, Z.C.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this geologic map is to provide a context within which to interpret the Neogene evolution of the active strike-slip fault system traversing the Mark West Springs 7.5' quadrangle and adjacent areas. Based on this geologic framework, the timing and total amounts of displacement and the Neogene rates of slip for faults of the right-stepover area between the Healdsburg and Maacama Faults are addressed.The Mark West Springs quadrangle is located in the northern California Coast Ranges north of San Francisco Bay. It is underlain by Mesozoic rocks of the Franciscan Complex, the Coast Range ophiolite, and the Great Valley sequence, considered here to be the pre-Tertiary basement of the northern Coast Ranges. These rocks are overlain by a complexly interstratified and mildly to moderately deformed sequence of Pleistocene to late Miocene marine and nonmarine sedimentary and largely subaerial volcanic rocks. These rocks and unconformably overlying, less-deformed Holocene and Pleistocene strata are cut by the active right-lateral Healdsburg and Maacama Fault Zones.Mapping of the Mark West Springs quadrangle began in 1996 and was completed in October 2002. Most of the mapping presented here is original, although a few other sources of existing geologic mapping were also utilized. Funding for the project was provided by the National Cooperative Geologic Mapping and Earthquake Hazards Reduction programs of the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with geologic hazards mapping investigations of the California Geological Survey.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. These maps can also determine the best areas to build critical structures, or at least determine the level of protection of these structures should they be built in hazard areas. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate countermeasures for a given PSWS.

Spatial modelling for tsunami evacuation route in Parangtritis Village

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juniansah, A.; Tyas, B. I.; Tama, G. C.; Febriani, K. R.; Farda, N. M.

2018-04-01

Tsunami is a series of huge sea waves that commonly occurs because of the oceanic plate movement or tectonic activity under the sea. As a sudden hazard, the tsunami has damaged many people over the years. Parangtritis village is one of high tsunami hazard risk area in Indonesia which needs an effective tsunami risk reduction. This study aims are modelling a tsunami susceptibility map, existing assembly points evaluation, and suggesting effective evacuation routes. The susceptibility map was created using ALOS PALSAR DEM and surface roughness coefficient. The method of tsunami modelling employed inundation model developed by Berryman (2006). The results are used to determine new assembly points based on the Sentinel 2A imagery and to determine the most effective evacuation route by using network analyst. This model can be used to create detailed scale of evacuation route, but unrepresentative for assembly point that far from road network.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.; Harp, E.L.; Michael, J.A.

2000-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps; an example from the Los Angeles, California, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.

1998-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

Creating Geologically Based Radon Potential Maps for Kentucky

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overfield, B.; Hahn, E.; Wiggins, A.; Andrews, W. M., Jr.

2017-12-01

Radon potential in the United States, Kentucky in particular, has historically been communicated using a single hazard level for each county; however, physical phenomena are not controlled by administrative boundaries, so single-value county maps do not reflect the significant variations in radon potential in each county. A more accurate approach uses bedrock geology as a predictive tool. A team of nurses, health educators, statisticians, and geologists partnered to create 120 county maps showing spatial variations in radon potential by intersecting residential radon test kit results (N = 60,000) with a statewide 1:24,000-scale bedrock geology coverage to determine statistically valid radon-potential estimates for each geologic unit. Maps using geology as a predictive tool for radon potential are inherently more detailed than single-value county maps. This mapping project revealed that areas in central and south-central Kentucky with the highest radon potential are underlain by shales and karstic limestones.

Integrate urban‐scale seismic hazard analyses with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moschetti, Morgan P.; Luco, Nicolas; Frankel, Arthur; Petersen, Mark D.; Aagaard, Brad T.; Baltay, Annemarie S.; Blanpied, Michael; Boyd, Oliver; Briggs, Richard; Gold, Ryan D.; Graves, Robert; Hartzell, Stephen; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Stephenson, William J.; Wald, David J.; Williams, Robert A.; Withers, Kyle

2018-01-01

For more than 20 yrs, damage patterns and instrumental recordings have highlighted the influence of the local 3D geologic structure on earthquake ground motions (e.g., M">M 6.7 Northridge, California, Gao et al., 1996; M">M 6.9 Kobe, Japan, Kawase, 1996; M">M 6.8 Nisqually, Washington, Frankel, Carver, and Williams, 2002). Although this and other local‐scale features are critical to improving seismic hazard forecasts, historically they have not been explicitly incorporated into the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM, national model and maps), primarily because the necessary basin maps and methodologies were not available at the national scale. Instead,...

Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

2017-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products. 

The influence of maximum magnitude on seismic-hazard estimates in the Central and Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, C.S.

2010-01-01

I analyze the sensitivity of seismic-hazard estimates in the central and eastern United States (CEUS) to maximum magnitude (mmax) by exercising the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) probabilistic hazard model with several mmax alternatives. Seismicity-based sources control the hazard in most of the CEUS, but data seldom provide an objective basis for estimating mmax. The USGS uses preferred mmax values of moment magnitude 7.0 and 7.5 for the CEUS craton and extended margin, respectively, derived from data in stable continental regions worldwide. Other approaches, for example analysis of local seismicity or judgment about a source's seismogenic potential, often lead to much smaller mmax. Alternative models span the mmax ranges from the 1980s Electric Power Research Institute/Seismicity Owners Group (EPRI/SOG) analysis. Results are presented as haz-ard ratios relative to the USGS national seismic hazard maps. One alternative model specifies mmax equal to moment magnitude 5.0 and 5.5 for the craton and margin, respectively, similar to EPRI/SOG for some sources. For 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (about 0.0004 annual probability), the strong mmax truncation produces hazard ratios equal to 0.35-0.60 for 0.2-sec spectral acceleration, and 0.15-0.35 for 1.0-sec spectral acceleration. Hazard-controlling earthquakes interact with mmax in complex ways. There is a relatively weak dependence on probability level: hazardratios increase 0-15% for 0.002 annual exceedance probability and decrease 5-25% for 0.00001 annual exceedance probability. Although differences at some sites are tempered when faults are added, mmax clearly accounts for some of the discrepancies that are seen in comparisons between USGS-based and EPRI/SOG-based hazard results.

2008 United States National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, M.D.; ,

2008-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey recently updated the National Seismic Hazard Maps by incorporating new seismic, geologic, and geodetic information on earthquake rates and associated ground shaking. The 2008 versions supersede those released in 1996 and 2002. These maps are the basis for seismic design provisions of building codes, insurance rate structures, earthquake loss studies, retrofit priorities, and land-use planning. Their use in design of buildings, bridges, highways, and critical infrastructure allows structures to better withstand earthquake shaking, saving lives and reducing disruption to critical activities following a damaging event. The maps also help engineers avoid costs from over-design for unlikely levels of ground motion.

Mapping Infected Area after a Flash-Flooding Storm Using Multi Criteria Analysis and Spectral Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Akad, S.; Akensous, Y.; Hakdaoui, M.

2017-11-01

This research article is summarize the applications of remote sensing and GIS to study the urban floods risk in Al Mukalla. Satellite acquisition of a flood event on October 2015 in Al Mukalla (Yemen) by using flood risk mapping techniques illustrate the potential risk present in this city. Satellite images (The Landsat and DEM images data were atmospherically corrected, radiometric corrected, and geometric and topographic distortions rectified.) are used for flood risk mapping to afford a hazard (vulnerability) map. This map is provided by applying image-processing techniques and using geographic information system (GIS) environment also the application of NDVI, NDWI index, and a method to estimate the flood-hazard areas. Four factors were considered in order to estimate the spatial distribution of the hazardous areas: flow accumulation, slope, land use, geology and elevation. The multi-criteria analysis, allowing to deal with vulnerability to flooding, as well as mapping areas at the risk of flooding of the city Al Mukalla. The main object of this research is to provide a simple and rapid method to reduce and manage the risks caused by flood in Yemen by take as example the city of Al Mukalla.

Risk-targeted maps for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

2018-03-01

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

Publication: Evansville hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2012-01-01

The Evansville (Indiana) Area Earthquake Hazards Mapping Project was completed in February 2012. It was a collaborative effort among the U.S. Geological Survey and regional partners Purdue University; the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis; the state geologic surveys of Kentucky, Illinois, and Indiana; the Southwest Indiana Disaster Resistant Community Corporation; and the Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium state geologists.

Application of LANDSAT data to delimitation of avalanche hazards in Montane, Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H. (Principal Investigator); Summer, R.

1976-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. With rare exceptions, avalanche areas cannot be identified on LANDSAT imagery. Avalanche hazard mapping on a regional scale is best conducted using LANDSAT imagery in conjunction with complementary data sources. Level of detail of such maps will be limited by the amount and completeness of the complementary information used.

Fusiform-Rust-Hazard Maps for Loblolly and Slash Pines

Treesearch

Robert L. Anderson; Thomas C. McCartney; Noel D. Cost; Hugh Devine; Martin Botkin

1988-01-01

Rust-hazard saps made from Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data show that fusiform rust on slash pine is most common in north-central Florida, in southeastern Georgia, and in areas north of slash pine's natural range. On loblolly pine, the disease is most common in central and southeastern Georgia and in portions of South Carolina. These maps show the general...

Identification, prediction, and mitigation of sinkhole hazards in evaporite karst areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, F.; Cooper, A.H.; Johnson, K.S.

2008-01-01

Sinkholes usually have a higher probability of occurrence and a greater genetic diversity in evaporite terrains than in carbonate karst areas. This is because evaporites have a higher solubility and, commonly, a lower mechanical strength. Subsidence damage resulting from evaporite dissolution generates substantial losses throughout the world, but the causes are only well understood in a few areas. To deal with these hazards, a phased approach is needed for sinkhole identification, investigation, prediction, and mitigation. Identification techniques include field surveys and geomorphological mapping combined with accounts from local people and historical sources. Detailed sinkhole maps can be constructed from sequential historical maps, recent topographical maps, and digital elevation models (DEMs) complemented with building-damage surveying, remote sensing, and high-resolution geodetic surveys. On a more detailed level, information from exposed paleosubsidence features (paleokarst), speleological explorations, geophysical investigations, trenching, dating techniques, and boreholes may help in investigating dissolution and subsidence features. Information on the hydrogeological pathways including caves, springs, and swallow holes are particularly important especially when corroborated by tracer tests. These diverse data sources make a valuable database-the karst inventory. From this dataset, sinkhole susceptibility zonations (relative probability) may be produced based on the spatial distribution of the features and good knowledge of the local geology. Sinkhole distribution can be investigated by spatial distribution analysis techniques including studies of preferential elongation, alignment, and nearest neighbor analysis. More objective susceptibility models may be obtained by analyzing the statistical relationships between the known sinkholes and the conditioning factors. Chronological information on sinkhole formation is required to estimate the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (number of sinkholes/km2 year). Such spatial and temporal predictions, frequently derived from limited records and based on the assumption that past sinkhole activity may be extrapolated to the future, are non-corroborated hypotheses. Validation methods allow us to assess the predictive capability of the susceptibility maps and to transform them into probability maps. Avoiding the most hazardous areas by preventive planning is the safest strategy for development in sinkhole-prone areas. Corrective measures could be applied to reduce the dissolution activity and subsidence processes. A more practical solution for safe development is to reduce the vulnerability of the structures by using subsidence-proof designs. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Stock, Gregory M.; Reichenbach, P.; Snyder, J.B.; Borchers, J.W.; Godt, J.W.

2008-01-01

Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m 3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.

Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation (BEVZ) -A Proposed Method of Preparing Bank Erosion Zonation and Its Application on the River Haora, Tripura, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandyopadhyay, Shreya; de, Sunil Kumar

2014-05-01

In the present paper an attempt has been made to propose RS-GIS based method for erosion vulnerability zonation for the entire river based on simple techniques that requires very less field investigation. This method consist of 8 parameters, such as, rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, soil erosivity, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact. Meteorological data, GSI maps, LISS III (30m resolution), SRTM DEM (56m resolution) and Google Images have been used to determine rainfall erosivity, lithological factor, bank slope, meander index, river gradient, vegetation cover and anthropogenic impact; Soil map of the NBSSLP, India has been used for assessing Soil Erosivity index. By integrating the individual values of those six parameters (the 1st two parameters are remained constant for this particular study area) a bank erosion vulnerability zonation map of the River Haora, Tripura, India (23°37' - 23°53'N and 91°15'-91°37'E) has been prepared. The values have been compared with the existing BEHI-NBS method of 60 spots and also with field data of 30 cross sections (covering the 60 spots) taken along 51 km stretch of the river in Indian Territory and found that the estimated values are matching with the existing method as well as with field data. The whole stretch has been divided into 5 hazard zones, i.e. Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low Hazard Zones and they are covering 5.66 km, 16.81 km, 40.82km, 29.67 km and 9.04 km respectively. KEY WORDS: Bank erosion, Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI), Near Bank Stress (NBS), Erosivity, Bank Erosion Vulnerability Zonation.

GIS-based probability assessment of natural hazards in forested landscapes of Central and South-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Lorz, C; Fürst, C; Galic, Z; Matijasic, D; Podrazky, V; Potocic, N; Simoncic, P; Strauch, M; Vacik, H; Makeschin, F

2010-12-01

We assessed the probability of three major natural hazards--windthrow, drought, and forest fire--for Central and South-Eastern European forests which are major threats for the provision of forest goods and ecosystem services. In addition, we analyzed spatial distribution and implications for a future oriented management of forested landscapes. For estimating the probability of windthrow, we used rooting depth and average wind speed. Probabilities of drought and fire were calculated from climatic and total water balance during growing season. As an approximation to climate change scenarios, we used a simplified approach with a general increase of pET by 20%. Monitoring data from the pan-European forests crown condition program and observed burnt areas and hot spots from the European Forest Fire Information System were used to test the plausibility of probability maps. Regions with high probabilities of natural hazard are identified and management strategies to minimize probability of natural hazards are discussed. We suggest future research should focus on (i) estimating probabilities using process based models (including sensitivity analysis), (ii) defining probability in terms of economic loss, (iii) including biotic hazards, (iv) using more detailed data sets on natural hazards, forest inventories and climate change scenarios, and (v) developing a framework of adaptive risk management.

Developing Coastal Surface Roughness Maps Using ASTER and QuickBird Data Sources

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spruce, Joe; Berglund, Judith; Davis, Bruce

2006-01-01

This viewgraph presentation regards one element of a larger project on the integration of NASA science models and data into the Hazards U.S. Multi-Hazard (HAZUS-MH) Hurricane module for hurricane damage and loss risk assessment. HAZUS-MH is a decision support tool being developed by the National Institute of Building Sciences for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). It includes the Hurricane Module, which employs surface roughness maps made from National Land Cover Data (NLCD) maps to estimate coastal hurricane wind damage and loss. NLCD maps are produced and distributed by the U.S. Geological Survey. This presentation discusses an effort to improve upon current HAZUS surface roughness maps by employing ASTER multispectral classifications with QuickBird "ground reference" imagery.

Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koudogbo, Fifamè N.; Duro, Javier; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Eddy, Andrew

2014-10-01

Climate change challenges our understanding of risk by modifying hazards and their interactions. Sudden increases in population and rapid urbanization are changing exposure to risk around the globe, making impacts harder to predict. Despite the availability of operational mapping products, there is no single tool to integrate diverse data and products across hazards, update exposure data quickly and make scenario-based predictions to support both short and long-term risk-related decisions. RASOR (Rapid Analysis and Spatialization Of Risk) will develop a platform to perform multi-hazard risk analysis for the full cycle of disaster management, including targeted support to critical infrastructure monitoring and climate change impact assessment. A scenario-driven query system simulates future scenarios based on existing or assumed conditions and compares them with historical scenarios. RASOR will thus offer a single work environment that generates new risk information across hazards, across data types (satellite EO, in-situ), across user communities (global, local, climate, civil protection, insurance, etc.) and across the world. Five case study areas are considered within the project, located in Haiti, Indonesia, Netherlands, Italy and Greece. Initially available over those demonstration areas, RASOR will ultimately offer global services to support in-depth risk assessment and full-cycle risk management.

Mapping Vulnerability to Disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1900-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maynard-Ford, Miriam C.; Phillips, Emily C.; Chirico, Peter G.

2008-01-01

The vulnerability of a population and its infrastructure to disastrous events is a factor of both the probability of a hazardous event occurring and the community's ability to cope with the resulting impacts. Therefore, the ability to accurately identify vulnerable populations and places in order to prepare for future hazards is of critical importance for disaster mitigation programs. This project created maps of higher spatial resolution of vulnerability to disaster in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1900 to 2007 by mapping disaster data by first-level administrative boundaries with the objective of identifying geographic trends in regional occurrences of disasters and vulnerable populations. The method of mapping by administrative level is an improvement on displaying and analyzing disasters at the country level and shows the relative intensity of vulnerability within and between countries in the region. Disaster mapping at the country level produces only a basic view of which countries experience various types of natural disasters. Through disaggregation, the data show which geographic areas of these countries, including populated areas, are historically most susceptible to different hazard types.

Deep convolutional neural network processing of aerial stereo imagery to monitor vulnerable zones near power lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qayyum, Abdul; Saad, Naufal M.; Kamel, Nidal; Malik, Aamir Saeed

2018-01-01

The monitoring of vegetation near high-voltage transmission power lines and poles is tedious. Blackouts present a huge challenge to power distribution companies and often occur due to tree growth in hilly and rural areas. There are numerous methods of monitoring hazardous overgrowth that are expensive and time-consuming. Accurate estimation of tree and vegetation heights near power poles can prevent the disruption of power transmission in vulnerable zones. This paper presents a cost-effective approach based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm to compute the height (depth maps) of objects proximal to power poles and transmission lines. The proposed CNN extracts and classifies features by employing convolutional pooling inputs to fully connected data layers that capture prominent features from stereo image patches. Unmanned aerial vehicle or satellite stereo image datasets can thus provide a feasible and cost-effective approach that identifies threat levels based on height and distance estimations of hazardous vegetation and other objects. Results were compared with extant disparity map estimation techniques, such as graph cut, dynamic programming, belief propagation, and area-based methods. The proposed method achieved an accuracy rate of 90%.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Assessing Seismic Hazards - Algorithms, Maps, and Emergency Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferriz, H.

2007-05-01

Public officials in charge of building codes, land use planning, and emergency response need sound estimates of seismic hazards. Sources may be well defined (e.g., active faults that have a surface trace) or diffuse (e.g., a subduction zone or a blind-thrust belt), but in both cases one can use a deterministic or worst-case scenario approach. For each scenario, a design earthquake is selected based on historic data or the known length of Holocene ruptures (as determined by geologic mapping). Horizontal ground accelerations (HGAs) can then be estimated at different distances from the earthquake epicenter using published attenuation relations (e.g., Seismological Res. Letters, v. 68, 1997) and estimates of the elastic properties of the substrate materials. No good algorithms are available to take into account reflection of elastic waves across other fault planes (e.g., a common effect in California, where there are many strands of the San Andreas fault), or amplification of waves in water-saturated alluvial and lacustrine basins (e.g., the Mexico City basin), but empirical relations can be developed by correlating historic damage patterns with predicted HGAs. The ultimate result is a map of HGAs. With this map, and with additional data on depth to groundwater and geotechnical properties of local soils, a liquefaction susceptibility map can be prepared, using published algorithms (e.g., J. of Geotech. Geoenv. Eng., v. 127, p. 817-833, 2001; Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 579-594, 2001). Finally, the HGA estimates, digital elevation models, geologic structural data, and geotechnical properties of local geologic units can be used to prepare a slope failure susceptibility map (e.g., Eng. Geology Practice in N. California, p. 77-94, 2001). Seismic hazard maps are used by: (1) Building officials to determine areas of the city where special construction codes have to be implemented, and where existing buildings may need to be retrofitted. (2) Planning officials to evaluate plans for new growth (though in most cities land use patterns are historically established). (3) Emergency response officials to plan emergency operations. (4) Insurance commissioners to estimate losses and insurance claims (e.g., with FEMA's software HAZUS).

Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, Miguel A.; Delgado-Granados, Hugo; Dingwell, Donald B.

2012-11-01

During volcanic explosions, volcanic ballistic projectiles (VBP) are frequently ejected. These projectiles represent a threat to people, infrastructure, vegetation, and aircraft due to their high temperatures and impact velocities. In order to protect people adequately, it is necessary to delimit the projectiles' maximum range within well-defined explosion scenarios likely to occur in a particular volcano. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for VBP during volcanic eruptions is applied to Popocatépetl volcano. Three explosion scenarios with different intensities have been defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with VBP ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of VBP observed in the field. In the case of Vulcanian eruptions, the most common type of activity at Popocatépetl, the ballistic model was used in concert with an eruptive model to correlate ballistic range with initial pressure and gas content, parameters that can be estimated by monitoring techniques. The results are validated with field data and video observations of different Vulcanian eruptions at Popocatépetl. For each scenario, the ballistic model is used to calculate the maximum range of VBP under optimum "launching" conditions: ballistic diameter, ejection angle, topography, and wind velocity. Our results are presented in the form of a VBP hazard map with topographic profiles that depict the likely maximum ranges of VBP under explosion scenarios defined specifically for Popocatépetl volcano. The hazard zones shown on the map allow the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

Assessment of macroseismic intensity in the Nile basin, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fergany, Elsayed

2018-01-01

This work intends to assess deterministic seismic hazard and risk analysis in terms of the maximum expected intensity map of the Egyptian Nile basin sector. Seismic source zone model of Egypt was delineated based on updated compatible earthquake catalog in 2015, focal mechanisms, and the common tectonic elements. Four effective seismic source zones were identified along the Nile basin. The observed macroseismic intensity data along the basin was used to develop intensity prediction equation defined in terms of moment magnitude. Expected maximum intensity map was proven based on the developed intensity prediction equation, identified effective seismic source zones, and maximum expected magnitude for each zone along the basin. The earthquake hazard and risk analysis was discussed and analyzed in view of the maximum expected moment magnitude and the maximum expected intensity values for each effective source zone. Moderate expected magnitudes are expected to put high risk at Cairo and Aswan regions. The results of this study could be a recommendation for the planners in charge to mitigate the seismic risk at these strategic zones of Egypt.

Non-supervised method for early forest fire detection and rapid mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artés, Tomás; Boca, Roberto; Liberta, Giorgio; San-Miguel, Jesús

2017-09-01

Natural hazards are a challenge for the society. Scientific community efforts have been severely increased assessing tasks about prevention and damage mitigation. The most important points to minimize natural hazard damages are monitoring and prevention. This work focuses particularly on forest fires. This phenomenon depends on small-scale factors and fire behavior is strongly related to the local weather. Forest fire spread forecast is a complex task because of the scale of the phenomena, the input data uncertainty and time constraints in forest fire monitoring. Forest fire simulators have been improved, including some calibration techniques avoiding data uncertainty and taking into account complex factors as the atmosphere. Such techniques increase dramatically the computational cost in a context where the available time to provide a forecast is a hard constraint. Furthermore, an early mapping of the fire becomes crucial to assess it. In this work, a non-supervised method for forest fire early detection and mapping is proposed. As main sources, the method uses daily thermal anomalies from MODIS and VIIRS combined with land cover map to identify and monitor forest fires with very few resources. This method relies on a clustering technique (DBSCAN algorithm) and on filtering thermal anomalies to detect the forest fires. In addition, a concave hull (alpha shape algorithm) is applied to obtain rapid mapping of the fire area (very coarse accuracy mapping). Therefore, the method leads to a potential use for high-resolution forest fire rapid mapping based on satellite imagery using the extent of each early fire detection. It shows the way to an automatic rapid mapping of the fire at high resolution processing as few data as possible.

Seaside, Oregon, Tsunami Pilot Study-Modernization of FEMA Flood Hazard Maps: GIS Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wong, Florence L.; Venturato, Angie J.; Geist, Eric L.

2006-01-01

Introduction: The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Federal Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) guidelines do not currently exist for conducting and incorporating tsunami hazard assessments that reflect the substantial advances in tsunami research achieved in the last two decades; this conclusion is the result of two FEMA-sponsored workshops and the associated Tsunami Focused Study (Chowdhury and others, 2005). Therefore, as part of FEMA's Map Modernization Program, a Tsunami Pilot Study was carried out in the Seaside/Gearhart, Oregon, area to develop an improved Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology and to provide recommendations for improved tsunami hazard assessment guidelines (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). The Seaside area was chosen because it is typical of many coastal communities in the section of the Pacific Coast from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and because State agencies and local stakeholders expressed considerable interest in mapping the tsunami threat to this area. The study was an interagency effort by FEMA, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in collaboration with the University of Southern California, Middle East Technical University, Portland State University, Horning Geoscience, Northwest Hydraulics Consultants, and the Oregon Department of Geological and Mineral Industries. We present the spatial (geographic information system, GIS) data from the pilot study in standard GIS formats and provide files for visualization in Google Earth, a global map viewer.

Shallow landslide hazard map of Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.; Laprade, William T.

2008-01-01

Landslides, particularly debris flows, have long been a significant cause of damage and destruction to people and property in the Puget Sound region. Following the years of 1996 and 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency designated Seattle as a “Project Impact” city with the goal of encouraging the city to become more disaster resistant to landslides and other natural hazards. A major recommendation of the Project Impact council was that the city and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborate to produce a landslide hazard map. An exceptional data set archived by the city containing more than 100 yr of landslide data from severe storm events allowed comparison of actual landslide locations with those predicted by slope-stability modeling. We used an infinite-slope analysis, which models slope segments as rigid friction blocks, to estimate the susceptibility of slopes to debris flows, which are water-laden slurries that can form from shallow failures of soil and weathered bedrock and can travel at high velocities down steep slopes. Data used for the analysis consisted of a digital slope map derived from recent light detection and ranging (LiDAR) imagery of Seattle, recent digital geologic mapping of the city, and shear-strength test data for the geologic units found in the surrounding area. The combination of these data layers within a geographic information system (GIS) platform allowed us to create a shallow landslide hazard map for Seattle.

Application of LANDSAT data to delimitation of avalanche hazards in Montane Colorado

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knepper, D. H., Jr. (Principal Investigator)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Many avalanche hazard zones can be identified on LANDSAT imagery, but not consistently over a large region. Therefore, regional avalanche hazard mapping, using LANDSAT imagery, must draw on additional sources of information. A method was devised that depicts three levels of avalanche hazards according to three corresponding levels of certainty that active avalanches occur. The lowest level, potential avalanche hazards, was defined by delineating slopes steep enough to support avalanches at elevations where snowfall was likely to be sufficient to produce a thick snowpack. The intermediate level of avalanche hazard was interpreted as avalanche hazard zones. These zones have direct and indirect indicators of active avalanche activity and were interpreted from LANDSAT imagery. The highest level of known or active avalanche hazards was compiled from existing maps. Some landslides in Colorado were identified and, to a degree, delimited on LANDSAT imagery, but the conditions of their identification were highly variable. Because of local topographic, geologic, structural, and vegetational variations, there was no unique landslide spectral appearance.

Implementation of tsunami disaster prevention measures in the municipality of San Rafael del Sur, Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strauch, W.; Talavera, E.; Acosta, N.; Sanchez, M.; Mejia, E.

2007-05-01

The Nicaraguan Pacific coast presents considerable tsunami risk. On September 1, 1992, a tsunami caused enormous damage in the infrastructure and killed more than 170 people. A pilot project was conducted between 2006 and 2007 in the municipality of San Rafel del Sur, area of Masachapa, The project included multiple topics of tsunami prevention measures and considering the direct participation of the local population, as: -General education on disaster prevention, participative events; -Investigation of awareness level and information needs for different population groups; -Specific educational measures in the schools; -Publication of brochures, calendars, news paper articles, radio programs, TV spots -Development of local tsunami hazard maps, 1:5,000 scale; (based on previous regional tsunami hazard mapping projects and local participation) -Development of a tsunami warning plan; -Improvements of the national tsunami warning system. -Installation of sirens for tsunami warning -Installation of tsunami signs, indicating hazardous areas, evacuation routes, safe places; -Realization of evacuation drills in schools. Based on the experiences gained in Masachapa it is planned to run similar projects in other areas along the Nicaraguan Pacific coast. In the project participated the local municipality and local stakeholders of San Rafael del Sur, Ministry of Education, National Police, Nicaraguan Red Cross, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Tourism, Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER), National System for Disaster Prevention (SINAPRED), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). It was financed by SDC and INETER.