An overview of natural hazard impacts to railways and urban transportation systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bíl, Michal; Nezval, Vojtěch; Bílová, Martina; Andrášik, Richard; Kubeček, Jan

2017-04-01

We present an overview and two case studies of natural hazard impacts on rail transportation systems in the Czech Republic. Flooding, landsliding, heavy snowfall, windstorms and glaze (black ice) are the most common natural processes which occur in this region. Whereas flooding and landsliding usually cause direct damage to the transportation infrastructure, other hazards predominantly cause indirect losses. Railway and urban tramline networks are almost fully dependent on electricity which is provided by a system of overhead lines (electric lines above the tracks). These lines are extremely susceptible to formation of glaze which blocks conduction of electric current. A December 2014 glaze event caused significant indirect losses in the largest Czech cities and railways due to the above-mentioned process. Details of this event will be provided during the presentation. Windstorms usually cause tree falls which can affect overhead lines and physically block railway tracks. Approximately 30 % of the Czech railway network is closer than 50 m from the nearest forest. This presents significant potential for transport interruption due to falling trees. Complicated legal relations among the owners of the plots of land along railways, the environment (full-grown trees and related habitat), and the railway administrator are behind many traffic interruptions due to falling trees. We have registered 2040 tree falls between 2012 and 2015 on the railway network. A model of the fallen tree hazard was created for the entire Czech railway network. Both above-mentioned case studies provide illustrative examples of the increased fragility of the modern transportation systems which fully rely on electricity. Natural processes with a low destructive power are thereby able to cause network wide service cut-offs.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... trees, or to respond to natural events provided that the activity is consistent with the Wild and Scenic...

Evaluating vegetation management practices for woody and herbaceous vegetation : phase III : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

To train ODOT staff to recognize trees along the right-of-way that may be hazardous, identify trees that may be of a species-specific concern for vegetation management objectives, make pruning cuts based on industry standards, and oversee the tree wo...

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a nuclear power plant site in southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Almeida, Andréia Abreu Diniz; Assumpção, Marcelo; Bommer, Julian J.; Drouet, Stéphane; Riccomini, Claudio; Prates, Carlos L. M.

2018-05-01

A site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been performed for the only nuclear power plant site in Brazil, located 130 km southwest of Rio de Janeiro at Angra dos Reis. Logic trees were developed for both the seismic source characterisation and ground-motion characterisation models, in both cases seeking to capture the appreciable ranges of epistemic uncertainty with relatively few branches. This logic-tree structure allowed the hazard calculations to be performed efficiently while obtaining results that reflect the inevitable uncertainty in long-term seismic hazard assessment in this tectonically stable region. An innovative feature of the study is an additional seismic source zone added to capture the potential contributions of characteristics earthquake associated with geological faults in the region surrounding the coastal site.

Ecosystem-based management treatments

Treesearch

Stephen F. Arno

1999-01-01

At Lick Creek, from 1906 until the 1980’s carefully guided harvesting had selectively removed large trees, retaining vigorous ones but allowing unmerchantable small trees to proliferate. The small trees were occasionally thinned by hand, but this was expensive and generated hazardous slash fuels. In contrast, for hundreds if not thousands of years prior to 1900,...

Reducing fire hazard: balancing costs and outcomes.

Treesearch

Valerie Rapp

2004-01-01

Massive wildfires in recent years have given urgency to questions of how to reduce fire hazard in Western forests, how to finance the work, and how to use the wood, especially in forests crowded with small trees. Scientists have already developed tools that estimate fire hazard in a forest stand. But hazard is more difficult to estimate at a landscape scale, involving...

Fuel Treatment Effects on Water Use Efficiency in Western Pine Forests Under Fire Suppression Evaluated Using Tree Ring Carbon Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, A. H.; Belmecheri, S.; Harris, L. B.

2016-12-01

We identified variation on water use efficiency interpreted from carbon 13 in tree ring cellulose in dense ponderosa pines forests in Washington and Arizona. Historically, these forests burned every decade until fires were suppressed beginning in the early twentieth century. The reduction in fire caused large increases in forest density and forest biomass and potential for intense fire. Forests with hazardous fuels are common in the western United States and these types of forests are treated with mechanical thinning and mechanical thinning and burning to reduce hazardous fuels and fire intensity. At each site we extracted tree ring samples from five trees in each treatment type and a control to identify the effects of fuel treatment of concentration of carbon 13 in tree ring cellulose. Water use efficiency as measured by carbon 13 increased after fuel treatments. Treatment effects were larger for the mechanical plus burn treatment than for the mechanical treatment in each study area compared to the control stands Our results suggest that fuel treatments reduce sensitivity of tree growth to climate and increase water use efficiency. Since tree ring carbon 13 is related to plant productivity, carbon 13 in tree rings can be used as a metric of change in ecosystem function for evaluating fuel treatments.

Forest tree responses to extreme drought and some biotic events: Towards a selection according to hazard tolerance?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bréda, Nathalie; Badeau, Vincent

2008-09-01

The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some extreme events could affect forest ecosystems. Forest tree response can be analysed using dendroecological methods, as tree-ring widths are strongly controlled by climatic or biotic events. Years with such events induce similar tree responses and are called pointer years. They can result from extreme climatic events like frost, a heat wave, spring water logging, drought or insect damage… Forest tree species showed contrasting responses to climatic hazards, depending on their sensitivity to water shortage or temperature hardening, as illustrated from our dendrochronological database. For foresters, a drought or a pest disease is an extreme event if visible and durable symptoms are induced (leaf discolouration, leaf loss, perennial organs mortality, tree dieback and mortality). These symptoms here are shown, lagging one or several years behind a climatic or biotic event, from forest decline cases in progress since the 2003 drought or attributed to previous severe droughts or defoliations in France. Tree growth or vitality recovery is illustrated, and the functional interpretation of the long lasting memory of trees is discussed. A coupled approach linking dendrochronology and ecophysiology helps in discussing vulnerability of forest stands, and suggests management advices in order to mitigate extreme drought and cope with selective mortality.

Extended GTST-MLD for aerospace system safety analysis.

PubMed

Guo, Chiming; Gong, Shiyu; Tan, Lin; Guo, Bo

2012-06-01

The hazards caused by complex interactions in the aerospace system have become a problem that urgently needs to be settled. This article introduces a method for aerospace system hazard interaction identification based on extended GTST-MLD (goal tree-success tree-master logic diagram) during the design stage. GTST-MLD is a functional modeling framework with a simple architecture. Ontology is used to extend the ability of system interaction description in GTST-MLD by adding the system design knowledge and the past accident experience. From the level of functionality and equipment, respectively, this approach can help the technician detect potential hazard interactions. Finally, a case is used to show the method. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Decision Tree Phytoremediation

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-12-01

aromatic hydrocarbons, and landfill leachates . Phytoremediation has been used for point and nonpoint source hazardous waste control. 1.2 Types of... Phytoremediation Prepared by Interstate Technology and Regulatory Cooperation Work Group Phytoremediation Work Team December 1999 Decision Tree...1999 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Phytoremediation Decision Tree 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

2016-07-01

Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

Analysis and out-year forecast of beetle, borer, and drought-induced tree mortality in California

Treesearch

Haiganoush K. Preisler; Nancy E. Grulke; Zachary Heath; Sheri L. Smith

2017-01-01

The level of tree mortality and drought observed over the past decade in North America has been described as ‘unparalleled’ in our modern history, in particular in the Sierra Nevada, California. Forest managers could use early warning of where and how much tree mortality to expect in the very near future to plan and prioritize hazard tree removal, pest suppression...

Thrown object hazards in forest operations

Treesearch

Robert Rummer; John Klepac

2011-01-01

Mechanized equipment for forest operations provide better operator protection in this hazardous work environment. However operators of forestry cutting machines are now exposed to new hazards from the high-energy cutting devices used to cut trees and process logs. Anecdotal reports of thrown objects document a risk of injury and fatality. Two new ISO standards have...

Evidence for Near-Road Air Pollution Abatement by Tree Cover

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanized areas represent concentrated demand for ecosystem services to buffer hazards and promote healthful lifestyles. Urban tree cover has been linked to multiple local health benefits including clean air and water, flood and drought protection, heat mitigation, and opportuni...

Accident hazard evaluation and control decisions on forested recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1971-01-01

Accident hazard associated with trees on recreation sites is inherently concerned with probabilities. The major factors include the probabilities of mechanical failure and of target impact if failure occurs, the damage potential of the failure, and the target value. Hazard may be evaluated as the product of these factors; i.e., expected loss during the current...

Flooding Hazard Maps of Different Land Uses in Subsidence Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yongjun; Chang, Hsiangkuan; Tan, Yihchi

2017-04-01

This study aims on flooding hazard maps of different land uses in the subsidence area of southern Taiwan. Those areas are low-lying due to subsidence resulting from over pumping ground water for aquaculture. As a result, the flooding due to storm surges and extreme rainfall are frequent in this area and are expected more frequently in the future. The main land uses there include: residence, fruit trees, and aquaculture. The hazard maps of the three land uses are investigated. The factors affecting hazards of different land uses are listed below. As for residence, flooding depth, duration of flooding, and rising rate of water surface level are factors affecting its degree of hazard. High flooding depth, long duration of flooding, and fast rising rate of water surface make residents harder to evacuate. As for fruit trees, flooding depth and duration of flooding affects its hazard most due to the root hypoxia. As for aquaculture, flooding depth affects its hazard most because the high flooding depth may cause the fish flush out the fishing ponds. An overland flow model is used for simulations of hydraulic parameters for factors such as flooding depth, rising rate of water surface level and duration of flooding. As above-mentioned factors, the hazard maps of different land uses can be made and high hazardous are can also be delineated in the subsidence areas.

Characterizing wood properties of small diameter Northwest trees

Treesearch

Thomas M. Gorman; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Forest lands of the Rocky Mountain region of the U.S. have many timber stands consisting of overgrown, densely stocked trees that create a fire hazard and are prone to disease. These stands need to be thinned, but the cost of harvesting often exceeds the value of the timber produced. However, because of the dense stocking and the resulting slow growth these trees may...

Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Hazard Development Process. Volume 1; Appendices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smiles, Michael D.; Blythe, Michael P.; Bejmuk, Bohdan; Currie, Nancy J.; Doremus, Robert C.; Franzo, Jennifer C.; Gordon, Mark W.; Johnson, Tracy D.; Kowaleski, Mark M.; Laube, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

The Chief Engineer of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Office requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) perform an independent assessment of the ESD's integrated hazard development process. The focus of the assessment was to review the integrated hazard analysis (IHA) process and identify any gaps/improvements in the process (e.g., missed causes, cause tree completeness, missed hazards). This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

Review of Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Integrated Hazard Development Process. Appendices; Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smiles, Michael D.; Blythe, Michael P.; Bejmuk, Bohdan; Currie, Nancy J.; Doremus, Robert C.; Franzo, Jennifer C.; Gordon, Mark W.; Johnson, Tracy D.; Kowaleski, Mark M.; Laube, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

The Chief Engineer of the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Office requested that the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) perform an independent assessment of the ESD's integrated hazard development process. The focus of the assessment was to review the integrated hazard analysis (IHA) process and identify any gaps/improvements in the process (e.g. missed causes, cause tree completeness, missed hazards). This document contains the outcome of the NESC assessment.

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

36 CFR 292.46 - Timber harvesting activities.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... hazard trees; or to respond to natural events such as wildfire, flood, earthquake, volcanic eruption, high winds, and disease or insect infestation. (2) Where authorized, trees may be harvested by... landscape to the extent practicable. (b) Wild and Scenic Rivers. The following standards and guidelines...

A seismic hazard uncertainty analysis for the New Madrid seismic zone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.

2001-01-01

A review of the scientific issues relevant to characterizing earthquake sources in the New Madrid seismic zone has led to the development of a logic tree of possible alternative parameters. A variability analysis, using Monte Carlo sampling of this consensus logic tree, is presented and discussed. The analysis shows that for 2%-exceedence-in-50-year hazard, the best-estimate seismic hazard map is similar to previously published seismic hazard maps for the area. For peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1.0 s (0.2 and 1.0 s Sa), the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the knowledge-based uncertainty in seismic hazard can exceed 0.6 over the New Madrid seismic zone and diminishes to about 0.1 away from areas of seismic activity. Sensitivity analyses show that the largest contributor to PGA, 0.2 and 1.0 s Sa seismic hazard variability is the uncertainty in the location of future 1811-1812 New Madrid sized earthquakes. This is followed by the variability due to the choice of ground motion attenuation relation, the magnitude for the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes, and the recurrence interval for M>6.5 events. Seismic hazard is not very sensitive to the variability in seismogenic width and length. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Impact of roadside tree lines on indoor concentrations of traffic-derived particulate matter.

PubMed

Maher, Barbara A; Ahmed, Imad A M; Davison, Brian; Karloukovski, Vassil; Clarke, Robert

2013-12-03

Exposure to airborne particulate pollution is associated with premature mortality and a range of inflammatory illnesses, linked to toxic components within the particulate matter (PM) assemblage. The effectiveness of trees in reducing urban PM10 concentrations is intensely debated. Modeling studies indicate PM10 reductions from as low as 1% to as high as ~60%. Empirical data, especially at the local scale, are rare. Here, we use conventional PM10 monitoring along with novel, inexpensive magnetic measurements of television screen swabs to measure changes in PM10 concentrations inside a row of roadside houses, after temporarily installing a curbside line of young birch trees. Independently, the two approaches identify >50% reductions in measured PM levels inside those houses screened by the temporary tree line. Electron microscopy analyses show that leaf-captured PM is concentrated in agglomerations around leaf hairs and within the leaf microtopography. Iron-rich, ultrafine, spherical particles, probably combustion-derived, are abundant, form a particular hazard to health, and likely contribute much of the measured magnetic remanences. Leaf magnetic measurements show that PM capture occurs on both the road-proximal and -distal sides of the trees. The efficacy of roadside trees for mitigation of PM health hazard might be seriously underestimated in some current atmospheric models.

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdollahzadeh, Gholamreza; Sazjini, Mohammad; Shahaky, Mohsen; Tajrishi, Fatemeh Zahedi; Khanmohammadi, Leila

2014-07-01

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.

Volcanic hazard management in dispersed volcanism areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, Jose Manuel; Garcia, Alicia; Ortiz, Ramon

2014-05-01

Traditional volcanic hazard methodologies were developed mainly to deal with the big stratovolcanoes. In such type of volcanoes, the hazard map is an important tool for decision-makers not only during a volcanic crisis but also for territorial planning. According to the past and recent eruptions of a volcano, all possible volcanic hazards are modelled and included in the hazard map. Combining the hazard map with the Event Tree the impact area can be zoned and defining the likely eruptive scenarios that will be used during a real volcanic crisis. But in areas of disperse volcanism is very complex to apply the same volcanic hazard methodologies. The event tree do not take into account unknown vents, because the spatial concepts included in it are only related with the distance reached by volcanic hazards. The volcanic hazard simulation is also difficult because the vent scatter modifies the results. The volcanic susceptibility try to solve this problem, calculating the most likely areas to have an eruption, but the differences between low and large values obtained are often very small. In these conditions the traditional hazard map effectiveness could be questioned, making necessary a change in the concept of hazard map. Instead to delimit the potential impact areas, the hazard map should show the expected behaviour of the volcanic activity and how the differences in the landscape and internal geo-structures could condition such behaviour. This approach has been carried out in La Palma (Canary Islands), combining the concept of long-term hazard map with the short-term volcanic scenario to show the expected volcanic activity behaviour. The objective is the decision-makers understand how a volcanic crisis could be and what kind of mitigation measurement and strategy could be used.

Administrative goals and safety standards for hazard control on forested recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1973-01-01

For efficient control of tree hazard on recreation sites, a specific administrative goal must be selected. A safety standard designed to achieve the selected goal and a uniform hazard-rating procedure will then promote a consistent level of safety at an acceptable cost. Safety standards can be established with the aid of data for past years, and dollar evaluations are...

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-01-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Multi scenario seismic hazard assessment for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostafa, Shaimaa Ismail; Abd el-aal, Abd el-aziz Khairy; El-Eraki, Mohamed Ahmed

2018-05-01

Egypt is located in the northeastern corner of Africa within a sensitive seismotectonic location. Earthquakes are concentrated along the active tectonic boundaries of African, Eurasian, and Arabian plates. The study area is characterized by northward increasing sediment thickness leading to more damage to structures in the north due to multiple reflections of seismic waves. Unfortunately, man-made constructions in Egypt were not designed to resist earthquake ground motions. So, it is important to evaluate the seismic hazard to reduce social and economic losses and preserve lives. The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is used to evaluate the hazard using alternative seismotectonic models within a logic tree framework. Alternate seismotectonic models, magnitude-frequency relations, and various indigenous attenuation relationships were amended within a logic tree formulation to compute and develop the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. Hazard contour maps are constructed for peak ground acceleration as well as 0.1-, 0.2-, 0.5-, 1-, and 2-s spectral periods for 100 and 475 years return periods for ground motion on rock. The results illustrate that Egypt is characterized by very low to high seismic activity grading from the west to the eastern part of the country. The uniform hazard spectra are estimated at some important cities distributed allover Egypt. The deaggregation of seismic hazard is estimated at some cities to identify the scenario events that contribute to a selected seismic hazard level. The results of this study can be used in seismic microzonation, risk mitigation, and earthquake engineering purposes.

Predicting tree mortality following gypsy moth defoliation

Treesearch

D.E. Fosbroke; R.R. Hicks; K.W. Gottschalk

1991-01-01

Appropriate application of gypsy moth control strategies requires an accurate prediction of the distribution and intensity of tree mortality prior to defoliation. This prior information is necessary to better target investments in control activities where they are needed. This poster lays the groundwork for developing hazard-rating systems for forests of the...

Estimating Value Contribution of Tree and Stand Condition

Treesearch

R. Joss Hanna; Richard P. Thompson; Douglas D. Piirto; Jay E. Noel

1997-01-01

Key issues in encouraging forest management at the interface level in the oak woodlands are fire abatement, stand improvement, infection reduction, and hazard tree removal. The development of effective management prescriptions for stand improvement and economic returns provide guidance for homeowners, appraisers, and realtors. The purpose of this research project was...

ERTS-1 imagery and high flight photographs as aids to fire hazard appraisal at the NASA San Pablo Reservoir test site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colwell, R. N.

1973-01-01

The identification of fire hazards at the San Pablo Reservoir Test Site in California using ERTS-1 data is discussed. It is stated that the two primary fire hazards in the area are caused by wild oat plants and eucalyptus trees. The types of imagery used in conducting the study are reported. Aerial photographs of specific areas are included to show the extent of the fire hazards.

Variabilities in probabilistic seismic hazard maps for natural and induced seismicity in the central and eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mousavi, S. Mostafa; Beroza, Gregory C.; Hoover, Susan M.

2018-01-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) characterizes ground-motion hazard from earthquakes. Typically, the time horizon of a PSHA forecast is long, but in response to induced seismicity related to hydrocarbon development, the USGS developed one-year PSHA models. In this paper, we present a display of the variability in USGS hazard curves due to epistemic uncertainty in its informed submodel using a simple bootstrapping approach. We find that variability is highest in low-seismicity areas. On the other hand, areas of high seismic hazard, such as the New Madrid seismic zone or Oklahoma, exhibit relatively lower variability simply because of more available data and a better understanding of the seismicity. Comparing areas of high hazard, New Madrid, which has a history of large naturally occurring earthquakes, has lower forecast variability than Oklahoma, where the hazard is driven mainly by suspected induced earthquakes since 2009. Overall, the mean hazard obtained from bootstrapping is close to the published model, and variability increased in the 2017 one-year model relative to the 2016 model. Comparing the relative variations caused by individual logic-tree branches, we find that the highest hazard variation (as measured by the 95% confidence interval of bootstrapping samples) in the final model is associated with different ground-motion models and maximum magnitudes used in the logic tree, while the variability due to the smoothing distance is minimal. It should be pointed out that this study is not looking at the uncertainty in the hazard in general, but only as it is represented in the USGS one-year models.

76 FR 21272 - Special Areas; Roadless Area Conservation; Applicability to the National Forests in Colorado

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-15

... roads for fuels treatment and for ecosystem maintenance and restoration, but these are restricted to..., the tree cutting exceptions for fuel treatment and ecosystem maintenance and restoration are... term hazardous fuels has been added. Hazardous fuels are defined as excessive live or dead wildland...

Effects of prescribed burning on ecophysiological, anatomical and stem hydraulic properties in Pinus pinea L.

PubMed

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Savi, Tadeja; Ascoli, Davide; Castagneri, Daniele; Esposito, Assunta; Mayr, Stefan; Nardini, Andrea

2016-08-01

Prescribed burning (PB) is a widespread management technique for wildfire hazard abatement. Understanding PB effects on tree ecophysiology is key to defining burn prescriptions aimed at reducing fire hazard in Mediterranean pine plantations, such as Pinus pinea L. stands. We assessed physiological responses of adult P. pinea trees to PB using a combination of dendroecological, anatomical, hydraulic and isotopic analyses. Tree-ring widths, xylem cell wall thickness, lumen area, hydraulic diameter and tree-ring δ(13)C and δ(18)O were measured in trees on burned and control sites. Vulnerability curves were elaborated to assess tree hydraulic efficiency or safety. Despite the relatively intense thermal treatment (the residence time of temperatures above 50 °C at the stem surface ranged between 242 and 2239 s), burned trees did not suffer mechanical damage to stems, nor significant reduction in radial growth. Moreover, the PB did not affect xylem structure and tree hydraulics. No variations in (13)C-derived water use efficiency were recorded. This confirmed the high resistance of P. pinea to surface fire at the stem base. However, burned trees showed consistently lower δ(18)O values in the PB year, as a likely consequence of reduced competition for water and nutrients due to the understory burning, which increased both photosynthetic activity and stomatal conductance. Our multi-approach analysis offers new perspectives on post-fire survival strategies of P. pinea in an environment where fires are predicted to increase in frequency and severity during the 21st century. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

GRC Payload Hazard Assessment: Supporting the STS-107 Accident Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoren, William R.; Zampino, Edward J.

2004-01-01

A hazard assessment was conducted on the GRC managed payloads in support of a NASA Headquarters Code Q request to examine STS-107 payloads and determine if they were credible contributors to the Columbia accident. This assessment utilized each payload's Final Flight Safety Data Package for hazard identification. An applicability assessment was performed and most of the hazards were eliminated because they dealt with payload operations or crew interactions. A Fault Tree was developed for all the hazards deemed applicable and the safety verification documentation was reviewed for these applicable hazards. At the completion of this hazard assessment, it was concluded that none of the GRC managed payloads were credible contributors to the Columbia accident.

Strategies for assessing inter- and intra-specific variation in tree biomass in the interior west

Treesearch

David L.R. Affleck; John M. Goodburn; John D. Shaw

2012-01-01

Wildfire hazard mitigation and bioenergy harvesting have emerged as forest management priorities throughout the Interior West (IW) of the USA. Regional forest inventory and forecasting applications are therefore increasingly focused on tree biomass, including biomass in traditionally non-merchantable components. Yet accurate biomass equations for the latter components...

Snow accumulation in thinned lodgepole pine stands, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Scott W. Woods; Robert Ahl; Jason Sappington; Ward McCaughey

2006-01-01

Alternative silvicultural treatments such as thinning can be used to restore forested watersheds and reduce wildfire hazards, but the hydrologic effects of these treatments are not well defined. We evaluated the effect of two shelterwood-with-reserve silvicultural prescriptions, one leaving residual trees evenly distributed (SE) and the second leaving residual trees in...

Fault Tree Analysis: A Bibliography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

Fault tree analysis is a top-down approach to the identification of process hazards. It is as one of the best methods for systematically identifying an graphically displaying the many ways some things can go wrong. This bibliography references 266 documents in the NASA STI Database that contain the major concepts. fault tree analysis, risk an probability theory, in the basic index or major subject terms. An abstract is included with most citations, followed by the applicable subject terms.

A comparative assessment of decision trees algorithms for flash flood susceptibility modeling at Haraz watershed, northern Iran.

PubMed

Khosravi, Khabat; Pham, Binh Thai; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah; Shahabi, Himan; Revhaug, Inge; Prakash, Indra; Tien Bui, Dieu

2018-06-15

Floods are one of the most damaging natural hazards causing huge loss of property, infrastructure and lives. Prediction of occurrence of flash flood locations is very difficult due to sudden change in climatic condition and manmade factors. However, prior identification of flood susceptible areas can be done with the help of machine learning techniques for proper timely management of flood hazards. In this study, we tested four decision trees based machine learning models namely Logistic Model Trees (LMT), Reduced Error Pruning Trees (REPT), Naïve Bayes Trees (NBT), and Alternating Decision Trees (ADT) for flash flood susceptibility mapping at the Haraz Watershed in the northern part of Iran. For this, a spatial database was constructed with 201 present and past flood locations and eleven flood-influencing factors namely ground slope, altitude, curvature, Stream Power Index (SPI), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), land use, rainfall, river density, distance from river, lithology, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Statistical evaluation measures, the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and Freidman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were used to validate and compare the prediction capability of the models. Results show that the ADT model has the highest prediction capability for flash flood susceptibility assessment, followed by the NBT, the LMT, and the REPT, respectively. These techniques have proven successful in quickly determining flood susceptible areas. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

VEGETATION COVER ANALYSIS OF HAZARDOUS WASTE SITES IN UTAH AND ARIZONA USING HYPERSPECTRAL REMOTE SENSING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Serrato, M.; Jungho, I.; Jensen, J.

2012-01-17

Remote sensing technology can provide a cost-effective tool for monitoring hazardous waste sites. This study investigated the usability of HyMap airborne hyperspectral remote sensing data (126 bands at 2.3 x 2.3 m spatial resolution) to characterize the vegetation at U.S. Department of Energy uranium processing sites near Monticello, Utah and Monument Valley, Arizona. Grass and shrub species were mixed on an engineered disposal cell cover at the Monticello site while shrub species were dominant in the phytoremediation plantings at the Monument Valley site. The specific objectives of this study were to: (1) estimate leaf-area-index (LAI) of the vegetation using threemore » different methods (i.e., vegetation indices, red-edge positioning (REP), and machine learning regression trees), and (2) map the vegetation cover using machine learning decision trees based on either the scaled reflectance data or mixture tuned matched filtering (MTMF)-derived metrics and vegetation indices. Regression trees resulted in the best calibration performance of LAI estimation (R{sup 2} > 0.80). The use of REPs failed to accurately predict LAI (R{sup 2} < 0.2). The use of the MTMF-derived metrics (matched filter scores and infeasibility) and a range of vegetation indices in decision trees improved the vegetation mapping when compared to the decision tree classification using just the scaled reflectance. Results suggest that hyperspectral imagery are useful for characterizing biophysical characteristics (LAI) and vegetation cover on capped hazardous waste sites. However, it is believed that the vegetation mapping would benefit from the use of 1 higher spatial resolution hyperspectral data due to the small size of many of the vegetation patches (< 1m) found on the sites.« less

Effect of Fault Parameter Uncertainties on PSHA explored by Monte Carlo Simulations: A case study for southern Apennines, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinci, A.; Pace, B.

2017-12-01

In this study, we discuss the seismic hazard variability of peak ground acceleration (PGA) at 475 years return period in the Southern Apennines of Italy. The uncertainty and parametric sensitivity are presented to quantify the impact of the several fault parameters on ground motion predictions for 10% exceedance in 50-year hazard. A time-independent PSHA model is constructed based on the long-term recurrence behavior of seismogenic faults adopting the characteristic earthquake model for those sources capable of rupturing the entire fault segment with a single maximum magnitude. The fault-based source model uses the dimensions and slip rates of mapped fault to develop magnitude-frequency estimates for characteristic earthquakes. Variability of the selected fault parameter is given with a truncated normal random variable distribution presented by standard deviation about a mean value. A Monte Carlo approach, based on the random balanced sampling by logic tree, is used in order to capture the uncertainty in seismic hazard calculations. For generating both uncertainty and sensitivity maps, we perform 200 simulations for each of the fault parameters. The results are synthesized both in frequency-magnitude distribution of modeled faults as well as the different maps: the overall uncertainty maps provide a confidence interval for the PGA values and the parameter uncertainty maps determine the sensitivity of hazard assessment to variability of every logic tree branch. These branches of logic tree, analyzed through the Monte Carlo approach, are maximum magnitudes, fault length, fault width, fault dip and slip rates. The overall variability of these parameters is determined by varying them simultaneously in the hazard calculations while the sensitivity of each parameter to overall variability is determined varying each of the fault parameters while fixing others. However, in this study we do not investigate the sensitivity of mean hazard results to the consideration of different GMPEs. Distribution of possible seismic hazard results is illustrated by 95% confidence factor map, which indicates the dispersion about mean value, and coefficient of variation map, which shows percent variability. The results of our study clearly illustrate the influence of active fault parameters to probabilistic seismic hazard maps.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Chiapas State (SE Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Lomelí, Anabel Georgina; García-Mayordomo, Julián

2015-04-01

The Chiapas State, in southeastern Mexico, is a very active seismic region due to the interaction of three tectonic plates: Northamerica, Cocos and Caribe. We present a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically performed to evaluate seismic hazard in the Chiapas state. The PSHA was based on a composited seismic catalogue homogenized to Mw and was used a logic tree procedure for the consideration of different seismogenic source models and ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The results were obtained in terms of peak ground acceleration as well as spectral accelerations. The earthquake catalogue was compiled from the International Seismological Center and the Servicio Sismológico Nacional de México sources. Two different seismogenic source zones (SSZ) models were devised based on a revision of the tectonics of the region and the available geomorphological and geological maps. The SSZ were finally defined by the analysis of geophysical data, resulting two main different SSZ models. The Gutenberg-Richter parameters for each SSZ were calculated from the declustered and homogenized catalogue, while the maximum expected earthquake was assessed from both the catalogue and geological criteria. Several worldwide and regional GMPEs for subduction and crustal zones were revised. For each SSZ model we considered four possible combinations of GMPEs. Finally, hazard was calculated in terms of PGA and SA for 500-, 1000-, and 2500-years return periods for each branch of the logic tree using the CRISIS2007 software. The final hazard maps represent the mean values obtained from the two seismogenic and four attenuation models considered in the logic tree. For the three return periods analyzed, the maps locate the most hazardous areas in the Chiapas Central Pacific Zone, the Pacific Coastal Plain and in the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zone; intermediate hazard values in the Chiapas Batholith Zone and in the Strike-Slip Faults Province. The hazard decreases towards the northeast across the Reverse Faults Province and up to Yucatan Platform, where the lowest values are reached. We also produced uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the three main cities of Chiapas. Tapachula city presents the highest spectral accelerations, while Tuxtla Gutierrez and San Cristobal de las Casas cities show similar values. We conclude that seismic hazard in Chiapas is chiefly controlled by the subduction of the Cocos beneath Northamerica and Caribe tectonic plates, that makes the coastal areas the most hazardous. Additionally, the Motagua and Polochic Fault Zones are also important, increasing the hazard particularly in southeastern Chiapas.

2014 Update of the Pacific Northwest portion of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Chen, Rui; Petersen, Mark; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Sherrod, Brian

2015-01-01

Several aspects of the earthquake characterization were changed for the Pacific Northwest portion of the 2014 update of the national seismic hazard maps, reflecting recent scientific findings. New logic trees were developed for the recurrence parameters of M8-9 earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) and for the eastern edge of their rupture zones. These logic trees reflect recent findings of additional M8 CSZ earthquakes using offshore deposits of turbidity flows and onshore tsunami deposits and subsidence. These M8 earthquakes each rupture a portion of the CSZ and occur in the time periods between M9 earthquakes that have an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The maximum magnitude was increased for deep intraslab earthquakes. An areal source zone to account for the possibility of deep earthquakes under western Oregon was expanded. The western portion of the Tacoma fault was added to the hazard maps.

A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Dahllöf, I

2014-11-15

Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The FTA Method And A Possibility Of Its Application In The Area Of Road Freight Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poliaková, Adela

2015-06-01

The Fault Tree process utilizes logic diagrams to portray and analyse potentially hazardous events. Three basic symbols (logic gates) are adequate for diagramming any fault tree. However, additional recently developed symbols can be used to reduce the time and effort required for analysis. A fault tree is a graphical representation of the relationship between certain specific events and the ultimate undesired event (2). This paper deals to method of Fault Tree Analysis basic description and provides a practical view on possibility of application by quality improvement in road freight transport company.

Effect of the Road Environment on Road Safety in Poland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budzynski, Marcin; Jamroz, Kazimierz; Antoniuk, Marcin

2017-10-01

Run-off-road accidents tend to be very severe because when a vehicle leaves the road, it will often crash into a solid obstacle (tree, pole, supports, front wall of a culvert, barrier). A statistical analysis of the data shows that Poland’s main roadside hazard is trees and the severity of vehicles striking a tree in a run-off-road crash. The risks are particularly high in north-west Poland with many of the roads lined up with trees. Because of the existing rural road cross-sections, i.e. having trees directly on road edge followed immediately by drainage ditches, vulnerable road users are prevented from using shoulders and made to use the roadway. With no legal definition of the road safety zone in Polish regulations, attempts to remove roadside trees lead to major conflicts with environmental stakeholders. This is why a compromise should be sought between the safety of road users and protection of the natural environment and the aesthetics of the road experience. Rather than just cut the trees, other road safety measures should be used where possible to treat the hazardous spots by securing trees and obstacles and through speed management. Accidents that are directly related to the road environment fall into the following categories: hitting a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign, vehicle rollover on the shoulder, vehicle rollover on slopes or in ditch. The main consequence of a roadside hazard is not the likelihood of an accident itself but of its severity. Poland’s roadside accident severity is primarily the result of poor design or operation of road infrastructure. This comes as a consequence of a lack of regulations or poorly defined regulations and failure to comply with road safety standards. The new analytical model was designed as a combination of the different factors and one that will serve as a comprehensive model. It was assumed that it will describe the effect of the roadside on the number of accidents and their consequences. The design of the model was based on recommendations from analysing other models. The assumptions were the following: the model will be used to calculate risk factors and accident severity, the indicators will depend on number of vehicle kilometres travelled or traffic volumes, analyses will be based on accident data: striking a tree, hitting a barrier, hitting a utility pole or sign. Additional data will include roadside information and casualty density measures will be used - killed and injured.

Safety in the wood products industry

Treesearch

Judd H. Michael; Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Janice K. Wiedenbeck

2004-01-01

The wood products industry has historically been considered to be one of the most dangerous for manufacturing employees. Workers are exposed to hazards ranging from falling trees to debarkers to saws to nail guns, while often working under pressures for high productivity. Compounding the danger from these hazards are the mentally and physically challenging working...

A basic approach to fire injury of tree stems

Treesearch

R. E. Martin

1963-01-01

Fire has come to be widely used as a tool in wildland management, particularly in the South. Its usefulness in fire hazard reduction, removal of undesirable trees, and changing of cover types has been demonstrated. We are continually trying to improve fire use, however, by learning more of the specific effects of fire on different species of plants.

The effects of thinning and similar stand treatments on fire behavior in Western forests.

Treesearch

Russell T. Graham; Alan E. Harvey; Theresa B. Jain; Jonalea R. Tonn

1999-01-01

In the West, thinning and partial cuttings are being considered for treating millions of forested acres that are overstocked and prone to wildfire. The objectives of these treatments include tree growth redistribution, tree species regulation, timber harvest, wildlife habitat improvement, and wildfire-hazard reduction. Depending on the forest type and its structure,...

A report on conceptual advances in roll on/off technology in forestry

Treesearch

Dave Atkins; Robert Rummer; Beth Dodson; Craig E. Thomas; Andy Horcher; Ed Messerlie; Craig Rawlings; David Haston

2007-01-01

Over the last two decades, increasingly severe fire seasons have led policymakers to recognize the need for thinning overgrown stands of trees.However, thinning presents a financial challenge. The problem is that hazardous fuel reduction projects —especially projects in the Wildland/Urban Interface— contain mostly smaller trees, which have...

Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

2014-12-01

During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.

Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

PubMed Central

Kenah, Eben; Britton, Tom; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M.

2016-01-01

Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology. PMID:27070316

Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

2015-04-01

Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the public. VDAP trees evaluate probabilities of: magmatic intrusion, likelihood of eruption, magnitude of eruption, and types of associated hazardous events and their extents. In a few cases, trees have been extended to also assess and communicate vulnerability and relative risk.

Final Environmental Assessment for the Airfield Safety Zone Vegetation Clearing at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

JBMDL’s flying mission. Installation Restoration Program (IRP), Hazardous Materials and Waste Management There are several IRP sites within the...McGuire airfield area; however, none are expected to impact the Proposed Action. Negligible impacts on hazardous materials management during tree clearing...would be expected as only minor quantities of hazardous materials are likely to be used. BMPs would be followed to minimize the possibility of a

Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating road hazard information using road side infrastructures in VANETs.

PubMed

Berlin, M A; Anand, Sheila

2014-01-01

This paper presents Direction based Hazard Routing Protocol (DHRP) for disseminating information about fixed road hazards such as road blocks, tree fall, boulders on road, snow pile up, landslide, road maintenance work and other obstacles to the vehicles approaching the hazardous location. The proposed work focuses on dissemination of hazard messages on highways with sparse traffic. The vehicle coming across the hazard would report the presence of the hazard. It is proposed to use Road Side fixed infrastructure Units for reliable and timely delivery of hazard messages to vehicles. The vehicles can then take appropriate safety action to avoid the hazardous location. The proposed protocol has been implemented and tested using SUMO simulator to generate road traffic and NS 2.33 network simulator to analyze the performance of DHRP. The performance of the proposed protocol was also compared with simple flooding protocol and the results are presented.

Mechanical restoration of California mixed-conifer forests: does it matter which trees are cut?

Treesearch

Jessica Miesel; Ralph Boerner; Carl Skinner

2009-01-01

The montane ecosystems of northern California have been subjected to repeated manipulation and active fire suppression for over a century, resulting in changes in community structure that contribute to increased wildfire hazard. Ecosystem restoration via reduction of stand density for wildfire hazard mitigation has received substantial attention in recent years;...

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival

Treesearch

Brandon M. Collins; Adrian J. Das; John J. Battles; Danny L. Fry; Kevin D. Krasnow; Scott L. Stephens

2014-01-01

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest...

Bioenergy from trees: using cost-effective thinning to reduce forest fire hazards

Treesearch

Marie Oliver; Jeremy Fried; Jamie Barbour

2009-01-01

Increasingly large and severe wildfires threaten millions of forested acres throughout the West. Under certain conditions, mechanical thinning can address these hazardous conditions while providing opportunitiesto create renewable energy and reduce our carbon footprint but how do land managers decide whether thinning is a good idea? How do they decide where to begin,...

Managing organic debris for forest health: Reconciling fire hazard, bark beetles, wildlife, and forest nutrition needs

Treesearch

Chris Schnepf; Russell T. Graham; Sandy Kegley; Theresa B. Jain

2009-01-01

Forest organic debris includes tree limbs, boles (trunks), needles, leaves, snags, and other dead organic materials. It ranges in amount and composition depending on a forest's history, tree species, condition, and age. In the Inland Northwest (Idaho, western Montana, eastern Oregon, and eastern Washington) there is a lot of discussion and concern about removing...

Structural lumber from dense stands of small-diameter Douglas-fir trees.

Treesearch

David W. Green; Eini C. Lowell; Roland Hernandez

2005-01-01

Small-diameter trees growing in overstocked dense stands are often targeted for thinning to reduce fire hazard and improve forest health and ecosystem diversity. In the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain regions, Douglas-fir can be a predominant species in such stands. In this study, mechanical properties and grade yield of structural products were estimated for 2 by...

Should whole-tree chips for fuel be dried before storage?

Treesearch

E. L. Springer

1979-01-01

Whole-tree chips deteriorate more rapidly than do clean, debarked chips and present a greater hazard for spontaneous ignition when stored in outdoor piles. To prevent ignition, the chips can be stored for only short periods of time and the frequent rotation of the storage piles results in high handling costs. Drying the chips prior to storage will prevent deterioration...

Beetle-killed stands in the South Carolina piedmont: from fuel hazards to regenerating oak forests

Treesearch

Aaron D. Stottlemyer; G. Geoff Wang; Thomas A. Waldrop

2012-01-01

Impacts of spring prescribed fire, mechanical mastication, and no-treatment (control) on fuels and natural hardwood tree regeneration were examined in beetle-killed stands in the South Carolina Piedmont. Mechanical mastication ground the down and standing dead trees and live vegetation into mulch and deposited it onto the forest floor. The masticated debris layer had...

Comparing the accuracy of terrestrial laser scanner in measuring forest inventory variables to enhance better decision making for potential fire hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghimire, Suman; Xystrakis, Fotios; Koutsias, Nikos

2017-04-01

Forest inventory variables are essential in accessing the potential of wildfire hazard, obtaining above ground biomass and carbon sequestration which helps developing strategies for sustainable management of forests. Effective management of forest resources relies on the accuracy of such inventory variables. This study aims to compare the accuracy in obtaining the forest inventory variables like diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height from Terrestrial Laser Scanner (Faro Focus 3D X 330) with that from the traditional forest inventory techniques in the Mediterranean forests of Greece. The data acquisition was carried out on an area of 9,539.8 m2 with six plots each of radius 6 m. Computree algorithm was applied for automatic detection of DBH from terrestrial laser scanner data. Similarly, tree height was estimated manually using CloudCompare software for the terrestrial laser scanner data. The field estimates of DBH and tree height was carried out using calipers and Nikon Forestry 550 Laser Rangefinder. The comparison of DBH measured between field estimates and Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS), resulted in R squared values ranging from 0.75 to 0.96 at the plot level. An average R2 and RMSE value of 0.80 and 1.07 m respectively was obtained when comparing the tree height between TLS and field data. Our results confirm that terrestrial laser scanner can provide nondestructive, high-resolution, and precise determination of forest inventory for better decision making in sustainable forest management and assessing potential of forest fire hazards.

A New Lifetime Distribution with Bathtube and Unimodal Hazard Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriga, Gladys D. C.; Louzada-Neto, Francisco; Cancho, Vicente G.

2008-11-01

In this paper we propose a new lifetime distribution which accommodate bathtub-shaped, unimodal, increasing and decreasing hazard function. Some special particular cases are derived, including the standard Weibull distribution. Maximum likelihood estimation is considered for estimate the tree parameters present in the model. The methodology is illustrated in a real data set on industrial devices on a lite test.

Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M

2016-11-01

Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.

Assessing Surface Fuel Hazard in Coastal Conifer Forests through the Use of LiDAR Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koulas, Christos

The research problem that this thesis seeks to examine is a method of predicting conventional fire hazards using data drawn from specific regions, namely the Sooke and Goldstream watershed regions in coastal British Columbia. This thesis investigates whether LiDAR data can be used to describe conventional forest stand fire hazard classes. Three objectives guided this thesis: to discuss the variables associated with fire hazard, specifically the distribution and makeup of fuel; to examine the relationship between derived LiDAR biometrics and forest attributes related to hazard assessment factors defined by the Capitol Regional District (CRD); and to assess the viability of the LiDAR biometric decision tree in the CRD based on current frameworks for use. The research method uses quantitative datasets to assess the optimal generalization of these types of fire hazard data through discriminant analysis. Findings illustrate significant LiDAR-derived data limitations, and reflect the literature in that flawed field application of data modelling techniques has led to a disconnect between the ways in which fire hazard models have been intended to be used by scholars and the ways in which they are used by those tasked with prevention of forest fires. It can be concluded that a significant trade-off exists between computational requirements for wildfire simulation models and the algorithms commonly used by field teams to apply these models with remote sensing data, and that CRD forest management practices would need to change to incorporate a decision tree model in order to decrease risk.

Mastication and prescribed fire impacts on fuels in a 25-year old ponderosa pine plantation, southern Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Alicia L. Reiner; Nicole M. Vaillant; JoAnn Fites-Kaufman; Scott N. Dailey

2009-01-01

Due to increases in tree density and hazardous fuel loading in Sierra Nevadan forests, land management is focusing on fuel reduction treatments to moderate the risk of catastrophic fires. Fuel treatments involving mechanical and prescribed fire methods can reduce surface as well as canopy fuel loads. Mastication is a mechanical method which shreds smaller trees and...

Assessing insect-induced tree mortality across large areas with high-resolution aerial photography in a multistage sample

Treesearch

Randy Hamilton; Kevin Megown; James Ellenwood; Henry Lachowski; Paul Maus

2010-01-01

In recent years, unprecedented tree mortality has occurred throughout the national forests owing to insect infestations and disease outbreaks. The magnitude and extent of mortality, coupled with the lack of routine monitoring in some areas, has made it difficult to assess the damage, associated ecological impact, and fire hazard in a timely and cost-effective manner....

Decay fungi associated with oaks and other hardwoods in the western United States

Treesearch

Jessie A. Glaeser; Kevin T. Smith

2010-01-01

An assessment of the presence and extent of the wood decay process should be part of any hazard tree analysis. Identification of the fungi responsible for decay improves both the prediction of the consequences of wood decay and the prescription of management options including tree pruning or removal. Until the outbreak of Sudden Oak Death (SOD), foresters in the...

Managing slash to minimize colonization of residual leave trees by Ips and other bark beetle species following thinning in southwestern ponderosa pine

Treesearch

T. DeGomez; C.J. Fettig; J.D. McMillin; J.A. Anhold; C.J. Hayes

2008-01-01

Due to high fire hazard and perceived reductions in forest health, thinning of small diameter trees has become a prevalent management activity particularly in dense stands. Creation of large amounts of logging slash, however, has created large quantities of habitat for bark beetles primarily in the Ips genus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae,...

Accidents caused by hazardous trees on California forest recreation sites

Treesearch

Lee A. Paine

1966-01-01

From 1959 to early 1966, tree failures caused an average of more than two injuries or deaths per year on forest recreation sites in California. Annual property damage is estimated at $25,100. Conifers accounted for three of every four accidents reported; pines and true firs were involved in 6 of every 10 incidents involving property damage, and in 9 of every 10...

Post-fire logging reduces surface woody fuels up to four decades following wildfire

Treesearch

David W. Peterson; Erich Kyle Dodson; Richy J. Harrod

2015-01-01

Severe wildfires create pulses of dead trees that influence future fuel loads, fire behavior, and fire effects as they decay and deposit surface woody fuels. Harvesting fire-killed trees may reduce future surface woody fuels and related fire hazards, but the magnitude and timing of post-fire logging effects on woody fuels have not been fully assessed. To address this...

Deterministic seismic hazard macrozonation of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolathayar, Sreevalsa; Sitharam, T. G.; Vipin, K. S.

2012-10-01

Earthquakes are known to have occurred in Indian subcontinent from ancient times. This paper presents the results of seismic hazard analysis of India (6°-38°N and 68°-98°E) based on the deterministic approach using latest seismicity data (up to 2010). The hazard analysis was done using two different source models (linear sources and point sources) and 12 well recognized attenuation relations considering varied tectonic provinces in the region. The earthquake data obtained from different sources were homogenized and declustered and a total of 27,146 earthquakes of moment magnitude 4 and above were listed in the study area. The sesismotectonic map of the study area was prepared by considering the faults, lineaments and the shear zones which are associated with earthquakes of magnitude 4 and above. A new program was developed in MATLAB for smoothing of the point sources. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° × 0.1° (approximately 10 × 10 km), and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering all the seismic sources within a radius of 300 to 400 km. Rock level peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral accelerations for periods 0.1 and 1 s have been calculated for all the grid points with a deterministic approach using a code written in MATLAB. Epistemic uncertainty in hazard definition has been tackled within a logic-tree framework considering two types of sources and three attenuation models for each grid point. The hazard evaluation without logic tree approach also has been done for comparison of the results. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of hazard values are presented in the paper.

Assessing the safety of co-exposure to food packaging migrants in food and water using the maximum cumulative ratio and an established decision tree.

PubMed

Price, Paul; Zaleski, Rosemary; Hollnagel, Heli; Ketelslegers, Hans; Han, Xianglu

2014-01-01

Food contact materials can release low levels of multiple chemicals (migrants) into foods and beverages, to which individuals can be exposed through food consumption. This paper investigates the potential for non-carcinogenic effects from exposure to multiple migrants using the Cefic Mixtures Ad hoc Team (MIAT) decision tree. The purpose of the assessment is to demonstrate how the decision tree can be applied to concurrent exposures to multiple migrants using either hazard or structural data on the specific components, i.e. based on the acceptable daily intake (ADI) or the threshold of toxicological concern. The tree was used to assess risks from co-exposure to migrants reported in a study on non-intentionally added substances (NIAS) eluting from food contact-grade plastic and two studies of water bottles: one on organic compounds and the other on ionic forms of various elements. The MIAT decision tree assigns co-exposures to different risk management groups (I, II, IIIA and IIIB) based on the hazard index, and the maximum cumulative ratio (MCR). The predicted co-exposures for all examples fell into Group II (low toxicological concern) and had MCR values of 1.3 and 2.4 (indicating that one or two components drove the majority of the mixture's toxicity). MCR values from the study of inorganic ions (126 mixtures) ranged from 1.1 to 3.8 for glass and from 1.1 to 5.0 for plastic containers. The MCR values indicated that a single compound drove toxicity in 58% of the mixtures. MCR values also declined with increases in the hazard index for the screening assessments of exposure (suggesting fewer substances contributed as risk potential increased). Overall, it can be concluded that the data on co-exposure to migrants evaluated in these case studies are of low toxicological concern and the safety assessment approach described in this paper was shown to be a helpful screening tool.

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalalalhosseini, Seyed Mostafa; Zafarani, Hamid; Zare, Mehdi

2018-01-01

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.

Landslide activity as a threat to infrastructure in river valleys - An example from outer Western Carpathians (Poland)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Łuszczyńska, Katarzyna; Wistuba, Małgorzata; Malik, Ireneusz

2017-11-01

Intensive development of the area of Polish Carpathians increases the scale of landslide risk. Thus detecting landslide hazards and risks became important issue for spatial planning in the area. We applied dendrochronological methods and GIS analysis for better understanding of landslide activity and related hazards in the test area (3,75 km2): Salomonka valley and nearby slopes in the Beskid Żywiecki Mts., Outer Western Carpathians, southern Poland. We applied eccentricity index of radial growth of trees to date past landslide events. Dendrochronological results allowed us to determine the mean frequency of landsliding at each sampling point which were next interpolated into a map of landslide hazard. In total we took samples at 46 points. In each point we sampled 3 coniferous trees. Landslide hazard map shows a medium (23 sampling points) and low (20 sampling points) level of landslide activity for most of the area. The highest level of activity was recorded for the largest landslide. Results of the dendrochronological study suggest that all landslides reaching downslope to Salomonka valley floor are active. LiDAR-based analysis of relief shows that there is an active coupling between those landslides and river channel. Thus channel damming and formation of an episodic lake are probable. The hazard of flooding valley floor upstream of active landslides should be included in the local spatial planning system and crisis management system.

Quantification of source uncertainties in Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Molinari, I.; Tiberti, M. M.; Romano, F.; Grezio, A.; Melini, D.; Piatanesi, A.; Basili, R.; Lorito, S.

2016-06-01

We propose a procedure for uncertainty quantification in Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA), with a special emphasis on the uncertainty related to statistical modelling of the earthquake source in Seismic PTHA (SPTHA), and on the separate treatment of subduction and crustal earthquakes (treated as background seismicity). An event tree approach and ensemble modelling are used in spite of more classical approaches, such as the hazard integral and the logic tree. This procedure consists of four steps: (1) exploration of aleatory uncertainty through an event tree, with alternative implementations for exploring epistemic uncertainty; (2) numerical computation of tsunami generation and propagation up to a given offshore isobath; (3) (optional) site-specific quantification of inundation; (4) simultaneous quantification of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through ensemble modelling. The proposed procedure is general and independent of the kind of tsunami source considered; however, we implement step 1, the event tree, specifically for SPTHA, focusing on seismic source uncertainty. To exemplify the procedure, we develop a case study considering seismic sources in the Ionian Sea (central-eastern Mediterranean Sea), using the coasts of Southern Italy as a target zone. The results show that an efficient and complete quantification of all the uncertainties is feasible even when treating a large number of potential sources and a large set of alternative model formulations. We also find that (i) treating separately subduction and background (crustal) earthquakes allows for optimal use of available information and for avoiding significant biases; (ii) both subduction interface and crustal faults contribute to the SPTHA, with different proportions that depend on source-target position and tsunami intensity; (iii) the proposed framework allows sensitivity and deaggregation analyses, demonstrating the applicability of the method for operational assessments.

Restoration and management of eastern white pine within high blister rust hazard zones in the Lake States

Treesearch

S. A. Katovich; J. G. O' Brien; M. E. Mielke; M. E. Ostry

2004-01-01

In areas considered high hazard for blister rust in the northern Lake States, six white pine plantings were established between 1989 and 1999 to: (1) evaluate the impacts of blister rust, white pine weevil, browsing, and competition stress on tree growth and survival, and (2) evaluate the effectiveness of genetic and silvicultural strategies to minimize damage. The...

Fuel and fire behavior in high-elevation five-needle pines affected by mountain pine beetle

Treesearch

Michael J. Jenkins

2011-01-01

Bark beetle-caused tree mortality in conifer forests affects the quantity and quality of forest fuels and has long been assumed to increase fire hazard and potential fire behavior. In reality, bark beetles and their effects on fuel accumulation and subsequent fire hazard have only recently been described. We have extensively sampled fuels in three conifer forest types...

Is tree loss associated with cardiovascular-disease risk in the Women's Health Initiative? A natural experiment

Treesearch

Geoffrey H. Donovan; Yvonne L. Michael; Demetrios Gatziolis; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Eric A. Whitsel

2015-01-01

Data from the Women's Health Initiative were used to quantify the relationship between the loss of trees to an invasive forest pest—the emerald ash borer—and cardiovascular disease. We estimated semi- parametric Cox proportional hazards model of time to cardiovascular disease, adjusting for confounders. We defined the incidence of cardiovascular disease as acute...

Numerical simulation of crown fire hazard following bark beetle-caused mortality in lodgepole pine forests

Treesearch

Chad Hoffman; Russell Parsons; Penny Morgan; Ruddy Mell

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate how varying amounts of MPB-induced tree mortality affects the amount of crown fuels consumed and the fire intensity across a range of lodgepole pine stands of different tree density and spatial arrangements during the early stages of a bark beetle outbreak. Unlike past studies which have relied on semi-empirical or empirical...

75 FR 27981 - Southwest Montana Resource Advisory Committee Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-19

... and Grade Realignments, Yellow Star Thistle and Knapweed, Invasive Species Education and Awareness... Creek Weed Treatment, Maud-S Canyon Trail Reconstruction, Maverick Mountain Hazard Tree Removal, and...

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Collins, Brandon M.; Das, Adrian J.; Battles, John J.; Fry, Danny L.; Krasnow, Kevin D.; Stephens, Scott L.

2014-01-01

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest resilience either positively or negatively depending on the specific elements examined, as well as treatment type, timing, and intensity. In this study, we use overstory tree growth responses, measured seven years after the most common fuel treatments, to estimate forest health. Across the five species analyzed, observed mortality and future vulnerability were consistently low in the mechanical-only treatment. Fire-only was similar to the control for all species except Douglas-fir, while mechanical-plus-fire had high observed mortality and future vulnerability for white fir and sugar pine. Given that overstory trees largely dictate the function of forests and services they provide (e.g., wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, soil stability) these results have implications for understanding longer-term impacts of common fuel treatments on forest resilience.

Beyond reducing fire hazard: fuel treatment impacts on overstory tree survival.

PubMed

Collins, Brandon M; Das, Adrian J; Battles, John J; Fry, Danny L; Krasnow, Kevin D; Stephens, Scott L

Fuel treatment implementation in dry forest types throughout the western United States is likely to increase in pace and scale in response to increasing incidence of large wildfires. While it is clear that properly implemented fuel treatments are effective at reducing hazardous fire potential, there are ancillary ecological effects that can impact forest resilience either positively or negatively depending on the specific elements examined, as well as treatment type, timing, and intensity. In this study, we use overstory tree growth responses, measured seven years after the most common fuel treatments, to estimate forest health. Across the five species analyzed, observed mortality and future vulnerability were consistently low in the mechanical- only treatment. Fire-only was similar to the control for all species except Douglas-fir, while mechanical-plus-fire had high observed mortality and future vulnerability for white fir and sugar pine. Given that overstory trees largely dictate the function of forests and services they provide (e.g., wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, soil stability) these results have implications for understanding longer-term impacts of common fuel treatments on forest resilience.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

The effect of mechanical fuel reduction treatments in the wildland-urban interface on the amount and distribution of bark beetle-caused tree mortality

Treesearch

Christopher J. Fettig; Joel D. McMillin; John A. Anhold; Shakeeb M. Hamud; Robert R. Borys; Steven J. Seybold

2007-01-01

Selective logging, fire suppression, forest succession, and climatic changes have resulted in high fire hazards over large areas of the western USA. Federal and state hazardous fuel reduction programs have increased accordingly to reduce the risk, extent and severity of these events, particularly in the wildland urban interface. In this study, we examined the effect of...

Simulation of dynamics of southern pine beetle hazard rating with respect to silvicultural treatment and stand development

Treesearch

D. J. Leduc; J. C. G. Goelz

2010-01-01

The hazard of southern pine beetle (SPB) infestations is affected by characteristics such as stand density, stand age, site quality, and tree size. COMPUTE P-LOB is a model that simulates the growth and development of loblolly pine plantations in the west gulf coastal plain. P-LOB was rewritten as COMPUTE SPB-Lob to update it for current operating systems and to...

Foraging Behaviour in Magellanic Woodpeckers Is Consistent with a Multi-Scale Assessment of Tree Quality

PubMed Central

Vergara, Pablo M.; Soto, Gerardo E.; Rodewald, Amanda D.; Meneses, Luis O.; Pérez-Hernández, Christian G.

2016-01-01

Theoretical models predict that animals should make foraging decisions after assessing the quality of available habitat, but most models fail to consider the spatio-temporal scales at which animals perceive habitat availability. We tested three foraging strategies that explain how Magellanic woodpeckers (Campephilus magellanicus) assess the relative quality of trees: 1) Woodpeckers with local knowledge select trees based on the available trees in the immediate vicinity. 2) Woodpeckers lacking local knowledge select trees based on their availability at previously visited locations. 3) Woodpeckers using information from long-term memory select trees based on knowledge about trees available within the entire landscape. We observed foraging woodpeckers and used a Brownian Bridge Movement Model to identify trees available to woodpeckers along foraging routes. Woodpeckers selected trees with a later decay stage than available trees. Selection models indicated that preferences of Magellanic woodpeckers were based on clusters of trees near the most recently visited trees, thus suggesting that woodpeckers use visual cues from neighboring trees. In a second analysis, Cox’s proportional hazards models showed that woodpeckers used information consolidated across broader spatial scales to adjust tree residence times. Specifically, woodpeckers spent more time at trees with larger diameters and in a more advanced stage of decay than trees available along their routes. These results suggest that Magellanic woodpeckers make foraging decisions based on the relative quality of trees that they perceive and memorize information at different spatio-temporal scales. PMID:27416115

Foraging Behaviour in Magellanic Woodpeckers Is Consistent with a Multi-Scale Assessment of Tree Quality.

PubMed

Vergara, Pablo M; Soto, Gerardo E; Moreira-Arce, Darío; Rodewald, Amanda D; Meneses, Luis O; Pérez-Hernández, Christian G

2016-01-01

Theoretical models predict that animals should make foraging decisions after assessing the quality of available habitat, but most models fail to consider the spatio-temporal scales at which animals perceive habitat availability. We tested three foraging strategies that explain how Magellanic woodpeckers (Campephilus magellanicus) assess the relative quality of trees: 1) Woodpeckers with local knowledge select trees based on the available trees in the immediate vicinity. 2) Woodpeckers lacking local knowledge select trees based on their availability at previously visited locations. 3) Woodpeckers using information from long-term memory select trees based on knowledge about trees available within the entire landscape. We observed foraging woodpeckers and used a Brownian Bridge Movement Model to identify trees available to woodpeckers along foraging routes. Woodpeckers selected trees with a later decay stage than available trees. Selection models indicated that preferences of Magellanic woodpeckers were based on clusters of trees near the most recently visited trees, thus suggesting that woodpeckers use visual cues from neighboring trees. In a second analysis, Cox's proportional hazards models showed that woodpeckers used information consolidated across broader spatial scales to adjust tree residence times. Specifically, woodpeckers spent more time at trees with larger diameters and in a more advanced stage of decay than trees available along their routes. These results suggest that Magellanic woodpeckers make foraging decisions based on the relative quality of trees that they perceive and memorize information at different spatio-temporal scales.

Climate change and wildland firefighter health and safety.

PubMed

Withen, Patrick

2015-02-01

The author examines how climate change is impacting wildland firefighters. Climate change has made wildland fires more frequent and more intense. The increase in frequency and intensity of fires has pushed the number of fatalities and injuries higher in recent decades. The most common hazards on fires follow the trend of fire in general in that these hazards become more frequent and intense. Burnovers, heat exhaustion, tree hazards, and many other common fire hazards are more likely. The fire suppression agencies are making every effort to improve health and safety on fires by improving communication, weather forecasting, mapping, fire shelters, decision making and more. Despite these efforts, wildfires are becoming ever more hazardous because of climate change and the increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires. © 2015 SAGE Publications.

36 CFR 223.52 - Market-related contract term additions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... AGRICULTURE SALE AND DISPOSAL OF NATIONAL FOREST SYSTEM TIMBER Timber Sale Contracts Contract Conditions and... to rapid deterioration, timber is in a wildland-urban interface area, or hazard trees adjacent to...

Evaluation of roadside greenbelt trees damage caused by strangler plants in Bogor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danniswari, Dibyanti; Nasrullah, Nizar

2017-10-01

Certain plants are called stranglers (hemiepiphyte) because they grow on host trees and slowly choking the host, which often results in the host’s death. The existence of strangler plants on roadside greenbelt trees is quite common in Bogor, but they may cause tree’s failure and threaten users’ safety. To prevent such hazard, evaluation of roadside greenbelt trees damage caused by strangler plants is important. This study was directed to analyse the vegetation of strangler plants in Bogor, to assess the damage caused by stranglers, and to compose strangled trees maintenance recommendations. This study was conducted in March to May 2014 by doing survey at five major roads in Bogor, which were Jalan Ahmad Yani, Jalan Sudirman, Jalan Pemuda, Jalan Semeru, and Jalan Juanda. The results showed that strangler species found in Bogor are Ficus benjamina, Ficus glauca, Ficus elastica, and Schefflera actinophylla. The most common species in Bogor is F. benjamina. Host trees that tend to be preferred by strangler plants are trees with large trunk, many branches, and medium to high height. The maintenance for every strangled tree is different according to the damage level, mild to severe damage could be treated by strangler root cutting to tree logging, respectively.

Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

2002-01-01

Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

Thinning, tree-growth, and resistance to multi-year drought in a mixed-conifer forest of northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vernon, Michael J.; Sherriff, Rosemary L.; van Mantgem, Phillip; Kane, Jeffrey M.

2018-01-01

Drought is an important stressor in forest ecosystems that can influence tree vigor and survival. In the U.S., forest managers use two primary management techniques to promote resistance and resilience to drought: prescribed fire and mechanical thinning. Generally applied to reduce fuels and fire hazard, treatments may also reduce competition for resources that may improve tree-growth and reduce mortality during drought. A recent severe and prolonged drought in California provided a natural experiment to investigate tree-growth responses to fuel treatments and climatic stress. We assessed tree-growth from 299 ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) in treated and untreated stands during severe drought from 2012 to 2015 in the mixed-conifer forests of Whiskeytown National Recreation Area (WNRA) in northern California. The treatment implemented at WNRA removed 34% of live basal area through mechanical thinning with a subsequent pile burning of residual fuels. Tree-growth was positively associated with crown ratio and negatively associated with competition and a 1-year lag of climate water deficit, an index of drought. Douglas-fir generally had higher annual growth than ponderosa pine, although factors affecting growth were the same for both species. Drought resistance, expressed as the ratio between mean growth during drought and mean growth pre-drought, was higher in treated stands compared to untreated stands during both years of severe drought (2014 and 2015) for ponderosa pine but only one year (2014) for Douglas-fir. Thinning improved drought resistance, but tree size, competition and species influenced this response. On-going thinning treatments focused on fuels and fire hazard reduction are likely to be effective at promoting growth and greater drought resistance in dry mixed-conifer forests. Given the likelihood of future droughts, land managers may choose to implement similar treatments to reduce potential impacts.

The Quantification of Consistent Subjective Logic Tree Branch Weights for PSHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runge, A. K.; Scherbaum, F.

2012-04-01

The development of quantitative models for the rate of exceedance of seismically generated ground motion parameters is the target of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). In regions of low to moderate seismicity, the selection and evaluation of source- and/or ground-motion models is often a major challenge to hazard analysts and affected by large epistemic uncertainties. In PSHA this type of uncertainties is commonly treated within a logic tree framework in which the branch weights express the degree-of-belief values of an expert in the corresponding set of models. For the calculation of the distribution of hazard curves, these branch weights are subsequently used as subjective probabilities. However the quality of the results depends strongly on the "quality" of the expert knowledge. A major challenge for experts in this context is to provide weight estimates which are logically consistent (in the sense of Kolmogorov's axioms) and to be aware of and to deal with the multitude of heuristics and biases which affect human judgment under uncertainty. For example, people tend to give smaller weights to each branch of a logic tree the more branches it has, starting with equal weights for all branches and then adjusting this uniform distribution based on his/her beliefs about how the branches differ. This effect is known as pruning bias.¹ A similar unwanted effect, which may even wrongly suggest robustness of the corresponding hazard estimates, will appear in cases where all models are first judged according to some numerical quality measure approach and the resulting weights are subsequently normalized to sum up to one.2 To address these problems, we have developed interactive graphical tools for the determination of logic tree branch weights in form of logically consistent subjective probabilities, based on the concepts suggested in Curtis and Wood (2004).3 Instead of determining the set of weights for all the models in a single step, the computer driven elicitation process is performed as a sequence of evaluations of relative weights for small subsets of models which are presented to the analyst. From these, the distribution of logic tree weights for the whole model set is determined as solution of an optimization problem. The model subset presented to the analyst in each step is designed to maximize the expected information. The result of this process is a set of logically consistent weights together with a measure of confidence determined from the amount of conflicting information which is provided by the expert during the relative weighting process.

Application of phytoscreening to three hazardous waste sites in Arizona.

PubMed

Duncan, Candice M; Mainhagu, Jon; Virgone, Kayla; Ramírez, Denise Moreno; Brusseau, Mark L

2017-12-31

The great majority of prior phytoscreening applications have been conducted in humid and temperate environments wherein groundwater is relatively shallow (~1-6m deep). The objective of this research is to evaluate its use in semi-arid environments for sites with deeper groundwater (>10m). To that end, phytoscreening is applied to three chlorinated-solvent hazardous-waste sites in Arizona. Contaminant concentrations were quantifiable in tree-tissue samples collected from two of the sites (Nogales, Park-Euclid). Contaminant concentrations were detectable, but not quantifiable, for the third site. Tree-tissue concentrations of tetrachloroethene (PCE) ranged from approximately 400-5000ug/kg wet weight for burrobrush, cottonwood, palo verde, and velvet mesquite at the Nogales site. In addition to standard trunk-core samples, leaf samples were collected to test the effectiveness of a less invasive sampling method. Leaf-sample concentrations were quantifiable, but several times lower than the corresponding core-sample concentrations. Comparison of results obtained for the test sites to those reported in the literature suggest that tree species is a major factor mediating observed results. One constraint faced for the Arizona sites was the relative scarcity of mature trees available for sampling, particularly in areas adjacent to industrial zones. The results of this study illustrate that phytoscreening can be used effectively to characterize the presence of groundwater contamination for semi-arid sites with deeper groundwater. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of Phytoscreening to Three Hazardous Waste Sites in Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duncan, C.

2017-12-01

The great majority of prior phytoscreening applications have been conducted in humid and temperate environments wherein groundwater is relatively shallow ( 1-6m deep). The objective of this research is to evaluate its use in semi-arid environments for sites with deeper groundwater (>10 m). To that end, phytoscreening is applied to three chlorinated-solvent hazardous-waste sites in Arizona. Contaminant concentrations were quantifiable in tree-tissue samples collected from two of the sites (Nogales, Park-Euclid). Contaminant concentrations were detectable, but not quantifiable, for the third site. Tree-tissue concentrations of tetrachloroethene (PCE) ranged from approximately 400-5000 ug/kg wet weight for burrobrush, cottonwood, palo verde, and velvet mesquite at the Nogales site. In addition to standard trunk-core samples, leaf samples were collected to test the effectiveness of a less invasive sampling method. Leaf-sample concentrations were quantifiable, but several times lower than the corresponding core-sample concentrations. Comparison of results obtained for the test sites to those reported in the literature suggest that tree species is amajor factormediating observed results. One constraint faced for the Arizona siteswas the relative scarcity of mature trees available for sampling, particularly in areas adjacent to industrial zones. The results of this study illustrate that phytoscreening can be used effectively to characterize the presence of groundwater contamination for semi-arid sites with deeper groundwater.

Modeling and Hazard Analysis Using STPA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishimatsu, Takuto; Leveson, Nancy; Thomas, John; Katahira, Masa; Miyamoto, Yuko; Nakao, Haruka

2010-09-01

A joint research project between MIT and JAXA/JAMSS is investigating the application of a new hazard analysis to the system and software in the HTV. Traditional hazard analysis focuses on component failures but software does not fail in this way. Software most often contributes to accidents by commanding the spacecraft into an unsafe state(e.g., turning off the descent engines prematurely) or by not issuing required commands. That makes the standard hazard analysis techniques of limited usefulness on software-intensive systems, which describes most spacecraft built today. STPA is a new hazard analysis technique based on systems theory rather than reliability theory. It treats safety as a control problem rather than a failure problem. The goal of STPA, which is to create a set of scenarios that can lead to a hazard, is the same as FTA but STPA includes a broader set of potential scenarios including those in which no failures occur but the problems arise due to unsafe and unintended interactions among the system components. STPA also provides more guidance to the analysts that traditional fault tree analysis. Functional control diagrams are used to guide the analysis. In addition, JAXA uses a model-based system engineering development environment(created originally by Leveson and called SpecTRM) which also assists in the hazard analysis. One of the advantages of STPA is that it can be applied early in the system engineering and development process in a safety-driven design process where hazard analysis drives the design decisions rather than waiting until reviews identify problems that are then costly or difficult to fix. It can also be applied in an after-the-fact analysis and hazard assessment, which is what we did in this case study. This paper describes the experimental application of STPA to the JAXA HTV in order to determine the feasibility and usefulness of the new hazard analysis technique. Because the HTV was originally developed using fault tree analysis and following the NASA standards for safety-critical systems, the results of our experimental application of STPA can be compared with these more traditional safety engineering approaches in terms of the problems identified and the resources required to use it.

Bayesian updating in a fault tree model for shipwreck risk assessment.

PubMed

Landquist, H; Rosén, L; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M

2017-07-15

Shipwrecks containing oil and other hazardous substances have been deteriorating on the seabeds of the world for many years and are threatening to pollute the marine environment. The status of the wrecks and the potential volume of harmful substances present in the wrecks are affected by a multitude of uncertainties. Each shipwreck poses a unique threat, the nature of which is determined by the structural status of the wreck and possible damage resulting from hazardous activities that could potentially cause a discharge. Decision support is required to ensure the efficiency of the prioritisation process and the allocation of resources required to carry out risk mitigation measures. Whilst risk assessments can provide the requisite decision support, comprehensive methods that take into account key uncertainties related to shipwrecks are limited. The aim of this paper was to develop a method for estimating the probability of discharge of hazardous substances from shipwrecks. The method is based on Bayesian updating of generic information on the hazards posed by different activities in the surroundings of the wreck, with information on site-specific and wreck-specific conditions in a fault tree model. Bayesian updating is performed using Monte Carlo simulations for estimating the probability of a discharge of hazardous substances and formal handling of intrinsic uncertainties. An example application involving two wrecks located off the Swedish coast is presented. Results show the estimated probability of opening, discharge and volume of the discharge for the two wrecks and illustrate the capability of the model to provide decision support. Together with consequence estimations of a discharge of hazardous substances, the suggested model enables comprehensive and probabilistic risk assessments of shipwrecks to be made. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerabilities, Influences and Interaction Paths: Failure Data for Integrated System Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2006-01-01

We describe graph-based analysis methods for identifying and analyzing cross-subsystem interaction risks from subsystem connectivity information. By discovering external and remote influences that would be otherwise unexpected, these methods can support better communication among subsystem designers at points of potential conflict and to support design of more dependable and diagnosable systems. These methods identify hazard causes that can impact vulnerable functions or entities if propagated across interaction paths from the hazard source to the vulnerable target. The analysis can also assess combined impacts of And-Or trees of disabling influences. The analysis can use ratings of hazards and vulnerabilities to calculate cumulative measures of the severity and importance. Identification of cross-subsystem hazard-vulnerability pairs and propagation paths across subsystems will increase coverage of hazard and risk analysis and can indicate risk control and protection strategies.

Grading of parameters for urban tree inventories by city officials, arborists, and academics using the delphi method.

PubMed

Östberg, Johan; Delshammar, Tim; Wiström, Björn; Nielsen, Anders Busse

2013-03-01

Tree inventories are expensive to conduct and update, so every inventory carried out must be maximized. However, increasing the number of constituent parameters increases the cost of performing and updating the inventory, illustrating the need for careful parameter selection. This article reports the results of a systematic expert rating of tree inventories aiming to quantify the relative importance of each parameter. Using the Delphi method, panels comprising city officials, arborists, and academics rated a total of 148 parameters. The total mean score, the top ranking parameters, which can serve as a guide for decision-making at practical level and for standardization of tree inventories, were: Scientific name of the tree species and genera, Vitality, Coordinates, Hazard class, and Identification number. The study also examined whether the different responsibilities and usage of urban tree databases among organizations and people engaged in urban tree inventories affected their prioritization. The results revealed noticeable dissimilarities in the ranking of parameters between the panels, underlining the need for collaboration between the research community and those commissioning, administrating, and conducting inventories. Only by applying such a transdisciplinary approach to parameter selection can urban tree inventories be strengthened and made more relevant.

Grading of Parameters for Urban Tree Inventories by City Officials, Arborists, and Academics Using the Delphi Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Östberg, Johan; Delshammar, Tim; Wiström, Björn; Nielsen, Anders Busse

2013-03-01

Tree inventories are expensive to conduct and update, so every inventory carried out must be maximized. However, increasing the number of constituent parameters increases the cost of performing and updating the inventory, illustrating the need for careful parameter selection. This article reports the results of a systematic expert rating of tree inventories aiming to quantify the relative importance of each parameter. Using the Delphi method, panels comprising city officials, arborists, and academics rated a total of 148 parameters. The total mean score, the top ranking parameters, which can serve as a guide for decision-making at practical level and for standardization of tree inventories, were: Scientific name of the tree species and genera, Vitality, Coordinates, Hazard class, and Identification number. The study also examined whether the different responsibilities and usage of urban tree databases among organizations and people engaged in urban tree inventories affected their prioritization. The results revealed noticeable dissimilarities in the ranking of parameters between the panels, underlining the need for collaboration between the research community and those commissioning, administrating, and conducting inventories. Only by applying such a transdisciplinary approach to parameter selection can urban tree inventories be strengthened and made more relevant.

SCAP: a new methodology for safety management based on feedback from credible accident-probabilistic fault tree analysis system.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Iqbal, A; Ramesh, N; Abbasi, S A

2001-10-12

As it is conventionally done, strategies for incorporating accident--prevention measures in any hazardous chemical process industry are developed on the basis of input from risk assessment. However, the two steps-- risk assessment and hazard reduction (or safety) measures--are not linked interactively in the existing methodologies. This prevents a quantitative assessment of the impacts of safety measures on risk control. We have made an attempt to develop a methodology in which risk assessment steps are interactively linked with implementation of safety measures. The resultant system tells us the extent of reduction of risk by each successive safety measure. It also tells based on sophisticated maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA) and probabilistic fault tree analysis (PFTA) whether a given unit can ever be made 'safe'. The application of the methodology has been illustrated with a case study.

Invisible CO2 gas killing trees at Mammoth Mountain, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorey, Michael L.; Farrar, Christopher D.; Evans, William C.; Hill, David P.; Bailey, Roy A.; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

1996-01-01

Since 1980, scientists have monitored geologic unrest in Long Valley Caldera and at adjacent Mammoth Mountain, California. After a persistent swarm of earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain in 1989, earth scientists discovered that large volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas were seeping from beneath this volcano. This gas is killing trees on the mountain and also can be a danger to people. The USGS continues to study the CO2 emissions to help protect the public from this invisible potential hazard.

Invisible CO2 gas killing trees at Mammoth Mountain, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sorey, Michael L.; Farrar, Christopher D.; Gerlach, Terrance M.; McGee, Kenneth A.; Evans, William C.; Colvard, Elizabeth M.; Hill, David P.; Bailey, Roy A.; Rogie, John D.; Hendley, James W.; Stauffer, Peter H.

2000-01-01

Since 1980, scientists have monitored geologic unrest in Long Valley Caldera and at adjacent Mammoth Mountain, California. After a persistent swarm of earthquakes beneath Mammoth Mountain in 1989, geologists discovered that large volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) gas were seeping from beneath this volcano. This gas is killing trees on the mountain and also can be a danger to people. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) continues to study the CO2 emissions to help protect the public from this invisible potential hazard.

Barking up the wrong tree: injuries due to falls from trees in Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Negin, Joel; Vizintin, Pavle; Houasia, Patrick; Martiniuk, Alexandra L C

2014-12-11

To investigate tree-related injuries in Solomon Islands by the types of trees involved, who is affected and the types of injuries caused. Descriptive case series of all cases of injuries related to trees presenting to the National Referral Hospital in Honiara from 1994 to 2011. Data were collected by the attending clinician using a Trauma Epidemiology form, which provides information on age, sex, cause of injury and type of fracture. Number of injuries by tree type, sex and age. Of the 7651 injuries in the database, 1107 (14%) were caused by falls from trees. Falls from coconut trees led to the highest number of injuries, followed by falls from mango, guava, apple and nut trees. Overall, 85% of injuries occurred in individuals aged < 20 years. For injuries involving guava trees, 77% of patients were aged < 10 years, compared with 46% for the five most commonly involved tree types. Overall, 71% of injuries occurred among males. Of all injuries, 92% were fractures, 3% were dislocations and 5% were non-fracture, non-dislocation injuries. The arm (including wrist, elbow and hand) was the most common location of injury across all tree types. Distal radius fractures in the forearm were particularly common, as were ulna fractures. While mangos and guavas are undeniably delicious, the quest for their flesh can be hazardous. Children will always climb trees, but the search for food among children in lower-income settings may lead to higher rates of injury.

Body mass index, safety hazards, and neighborhood attractiveness.

PubMed

Lovasi, Gina S; Bader, Michael D M; Quinn, James; Neckerman, Kathryn; Weiss, Christopher; Rundle, Andrew

2012-10-01

Neighborhood attractiveness and safety may encourage physical activity and help individuals maintain a healthy weight. However, these neighborhood characteristics may not be equally relevant to health across all settings and population subgroups. To evaluate whether potentially attractive neighborhood features are associated with lower BMI, whether safety hazards are associated with higher BMI, and whether environment-environment interactions are present such that associations for a particular characteristic are stronger in an otherwise supportive environment. Survey data and measured height and weight were collected from a convenience sample of 13,102 adult New York City (NYC) residents in 2000-2002; data analyses were completed 2008-2012. Built-environment measures based on municipal GIS data sources were constructed within 1-km network buffers to assess walkable urban form (density, land-use mix, transit access); attractiveness (sidewalk cafés, landmark buildings, street trees, street cleanliness); and safety (homicide rate, pedestrian-auto collision and fatality rate). Generalized linear models with cluster-robust SEs controlled for individual and area-based sociodemographic characteristics. The presence of sidewalk cafés, density of landmark buildings, and density of street trees were associated with lower BMI, whereas the proportion of streets rated as clean was associated with higher BMI. Interactions were observed for sidewalk cafés with neighborhood poverty, for street-tree density with walkability, and for street cleanliness with safety. Safety hazard indicators were not independently associated with BMI. Potentially attractive community and natural features were associated with lower BMI among adults in NYC, and there was some evidence of effect modification. Copyright © 2012 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate variability drives recent tree mortality in Europe.

PubMed

Neumann, Mathias; Mues, Volker; Moreno, Adam; Hasenauer, Hubert; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Tree mortality is an important process in forest ecosystems, frequently hypothesized to be highly climate sensitive. Yet, tree death remains one of the least understood processes of forest dynamics. Recently, changes in tree mortality have been observed in forests around the globe, which could profoundly affect ecosystem functioning and services provisioning to society. We describe continental-scale patterns of recent tree mortality from the only consistent pan-European forest monitoring network, identifying recent mortality hotspots in southern and northern Europe. Analyzing 925,462 annual observations of 235,895 trees between 2000 and 2012, we determine the influence of climate variability and tree age on interannual variation in tree mortality using Cox proportional hazard models. Warm summers as well as high seasonal variability in precipitation increased the likelihood of tree death. However, our data also suggest that reduced cold-induced mortality could compensate increased mortality related to peak temperatures in a warming climate. Besides climate variability, age was an important driver of tree mortality, with individual mortality probability decreasing with age over the first century of a trees life. A considerable portion of the observed variation in tree mortality could be explained by satellite-derived net primary productivity, suggesting that widely available remote sensing products can be used as an early warning indicator of widespread tree mortality. Our findings advance the understanding of patterns of large-scale tree mortality by demonstrating the influence of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight the potential of state-of-the-art remote sensing to anticipate an increased likelihood of tree mortality in space and time. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis in Japan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Toshiaki Sakai; Tomoyoshi Takeda; Hiroshi Soraoka

2006-07-01

It is meaningful for tsunami assessment to evaluate phenomena beyond the design basis as well as seismic design. Because once we set the design basis tsunami height, we still have possibilities tsunami height may exceeds the determined design tsunami height due to uncertainties regarding the tsunami phenomena. Probabilistic tsunami risk assessment consists of estimating for tsunami hazard and fragility of structures and executing system analysis. In this report, we apply a method for probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA). We introduce a logic tree approach to estimate tsunami hazard curves (relationships between tsunami height and probability of excess) and present anmore » example for Japan. Examples of tsunami hazard curves are illustrated, and uncertainty in the tsunami hazard is displayed by 5-, 16-, 50-, 84- and 95-percentile and mean hazard curves. The result of PTHA will be used for quantitative assessment of the tsunami risk for important facilities located on coastal area. Tsunami hazard curves are the reasonable input data for structures and system analysis. However the evaluation method for estimating fragility of structures and the procedure of system analysis is now being developed. (authors)« less

Seismic Hazard Assessment at Esfaraen‒Bojnurd Railway, North‒East of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haerifard, S.; Jarahi, H.; Pourkermani, M.; Almasian, M.

2018-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years.

Nonoccupational logging fatalities--Vermont, 1997-2007.

PubMed

2008-03-14

Professional logging is one of the most hazardous occupations in the United States, and the factors contributing to injuries and fatalities associated with this occupation are well documented. However, little has been reported about logging fatalities in the nonoccupational setting. To better characterize nonoccupational logging fatalities, the Vermont Department of Health analyzed medical examiner data from Vermont for the period 1997-2007. This report describes four cases and summarizes data on all nonoccupational logging fatalities. The findings indicated that tree felling accounted for 15 (83%) of the 18 nonoccupational logging fatalities during the 11-year period and that 14 (78%) of the fatalities were attributed to injuries resulting from being struck by a falling tree or limb. Contributing factors in these incidents included absence of personal protective equipment (PPE), misjudgment of the path of falling trees, and being alone. Measures to reduce nonoccupational logging fatalities should focus on promoting safe tree-felling practices and increasing helmet use among nonprofessional woodcutters. Ideally, however, nonprofessionals should not participate in tree felling.

Runout distance and dynamic pressure of pyroclastic density currents: Evidence from 18 May 1980 blast surge of Mount St. Helens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardner, J. E.; Andrews, B. J.

2016-12-01

Pyroclastic density currents (flows and surges) are one of the most deadly hazards associated with volcanic eruptions. Understanding what controls how far such currents will travel, and how their dynamic pressure evolves, could help mitigate their hazards. The distance a ground hugging, pyroclastic density current travels is partly limited by when it reverses buoyancy and lifts off into the atmosphere. The 1980 blast surge of Mount St. Helens offers an example of a current seen to lift off. Before lofting, it had traveled up to 20 km and leveled more than 600 km3 of thick forest (the blowdown zone). The outer edge of the devastated area - where burned trees that were left standing (the singe zone) - is where the surge is thought to have lifted off. We recently examined deposits in the outer parts of the blowdown and in the singe zone at 32 sites. The important finding is that the laterally moving surge travelled into the singe zone, and hence the change in tree damage does not mark the run out distance of the ground hugging surge. Eyewitness accounts and impacts on trees and vehicles reveal that the surge consisted of a fast, dilute "overcurrent" and a slower "undercurrent", where most of the mass (and heat) was retained. Reasonable estimates for flow density and velocity show that dynamic pressure of the surge (i.e., its ability to topple trees) peaked near the base of the overcurrent. We propose that when the overcurrent began to lift off, the height of peak dynamic pressure rose above the trees and stopped toppling them. The slower undercurrent continued forward, burning trees but it lacked the dynamic pressure needed to topple them. Grain-size variations argue that it slowed from 30 m/s when it entered the singe zone to 3 m/s at the far end. Buoyancy reversal and liftoff are thus not preserved in the deposits where the surge lofted upwards.

A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

2016-02-28

Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

75 FR 32960 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-10

... program. The Strawberry Canyon Vegetation Management Project involves the removal of eucalyptus and other... tree sprouts from the area. The Claremont Canyon Vegetation Management Project involves the removal of... the Strawberry Canyon Vegetation Management Project for public comment. The draft environmental...

A Novel DEM Approach to Simulate Block Propagation on Forested Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toe, David; Bourrier, Franck; Dorren, Luuk; Berger, Frédéric

2018-03-01

In order to model rockfall on forested slopes, we developed a trajectory rockfall model based on the discrete element method (DEM). This model is able to take the complex mechanical processes at work during an impact into account (large deformations, complex contact conditions) and can explicitly simulate block/soil, block/tree contacts as well as contacts between neighbouring trees. In this paper, we describe the DEM model developed and we use it to assess the protective effect of different types of forest. In addition, we compared it with a more classical rockfall simulation model. The results highlight that forests can significantly reduce rockfall hazard and that the spatial structure of coppice forests has to be taken into account in rockfall simulations in order to avoid overestimating the protective role of these forest structures against rockfall hazard. In addition, the protective role of the forests is mainly influenced by the basal area. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the DEM model were compared with classical rockfall modelling approaches.

Initiating Event Analysis of a Lithium Fluoride Thorium Reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geraci, Nicholas Charles

The primary purpose of this study is to perform an Initiating Event Analysis for a Lithium Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) as the first step of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The major objective of the research is to compile a list of key initiating events capable of resulting in failure of safety systems and release of radioactive material from the LFTR. Due to the complex interactions between engineering design, component reliability and human reliability, probabilistic safety assessments are most useful when the scope is limited to a single reactor plant. Thus, this thesis will study the LFTR design proposed by Flibe Energy. An October 2015 Electric Power Research Institute report on the Flibe Energy LFTR asked "what-if?" questions of subject matter experts and compiled a list of key hazards with the most significant consequences to the safety or integrity of the LFTR. The potential exists for unforeseen hazards to pose additional risk for the LFTR, but the scope of this thesis is limited to evaluation of those key hazards already identified by Flibe Energy. These key hazards are the starting point for the Initiating Event Analysis performed in this thesis. Engineering evaluation and technical study of the plant using a literature review and comparison to reference technology revealed four hazards with high potential to cause reactor core damage. To determine the initiating events resulting in realization of these four hazards, reference was made to previous PSAs and existing NRC and EPRI initiating event lists. Finally, fault tree and event tree analyses were conducted, completing the logical classification of initiating events. Results are qualitative as opposed to quantitative due to the early stages of system design descriptions and lack of operating experience or data for the LFTR. In summary, this thesis analyzes initiating events using previous research and inductive and deductive reasoning through traditional risk management techniques to arrive at a list of key initiating events that can be used to address vulnerabilities during the design phases of LFTR development.

Implementation of health and safety management system to reduce hazardous potential in PT.XYZ Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widodo, L.; Adianto; Sartika, D. I.

2017-12-01

PT. XYZ is a large automotive manufacturing company that manufacture, assemble as well as a car exporter. The other products are spare parts, jig and dies. PT. XYZ has long been implementing the Occupational Safety and Health Management System (OSHMS) to reduce the potential hazards that cause work accidents. However, this does not mean that OSHMS that has been implemented does not need to be upgraded and improved. This is due to the potential danger caused by work is quite high. This research was conducted in Sunter 2 Plant where its production activities have a high level of potential hazard. Based on Hazard Identification risk assessment, Risk Assessment, and Risk Control (HIRARC) found 10 potential hazards in Plant Stamping Production, consisting of 4 very high risk potential hazards (E), 5 high risk potential hazards (H), and 1 moderate risk potential hazard (M). While in Plant Casting Production found 22 potential hazards findings consist of 7 very high risk potential hazards (E), 12 high risk potential hazards (H), and 3 medium risk potential hazards (M). Based on the result of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), the main priority is the high risk potential hazards (H) and very high risk potential hazards (E). The proposed improvement are to make the visual display of the importance of always using the correct Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), establishing good working procedures, conducting OSH training for workers on a regular basis, and continuing to conduct safety campaigns.

Support for the Elimination of Roadside Hazards : Evaluating Roadside Collision Data and Clear Zone Requirements

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-01

Over a three year period (2004-2006), there were more than 60,000 crashes involving fixed objects (trees, utility poles, : culverts, bridge piers, etc.) located within South Carolina roadsides. These fixed object crashes accounted for 20% of all cras...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarrack, A.G.

The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses tomore » calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).« less

Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

The Accident Model Document is one of three documents of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) - Reactor System as applied to a Space Base Program. Potential terrestrial nuclear hazards involving the zirconium hydride reactor-Brayton power module are identified for all phases of the Space Base program. The accidents/events that give rise to the hazards are defined and abort sequence trees are developed to determine the sequence of events leading to the hazard and the associated probabilities of occurence. Source terms are calculated to determine the magnitude of the hazards. The above data is used in the mission accident analysis to determine the most probable and significant accidents/events in each mission phase. The only significant hazards during the prelaunch and launch ascent phases of the mission are those which arise form criticality accidents. Fission product inventories during this time period were found to be very low due to very limited low power acceptance testing.

JANNAF 18th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee Meeting. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cocchiaro, James E. (Editor); Gannaway, Mary T. (Editor)

1999-01-01

This volume, the first of two volumes is a compilation of 18 unclassified/unlimited-distribution technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 18th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee (PSHS) meeting held jointly with the 36th Combustion Subcommittee (CS) and 24th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee (APS) meetings. The meeting was held 18-21 October 1999 at NASA Kennedy Space Center and The DoubleTree Oceanfront Hotel, Cocoa Beach, Florida. Topics covered at the PSHS meeting include: shaped charge jet and kinetic energy penetrator impact vulnerability of gun propellants; thermal decomposition and cookoff behavior of energetic materials; violent reaction; detonation phenomena of solid energetic materials subjected to shock and impact stimuli; and hazard classification, insensitive munitions, and propulsion systems safety.

A Guide to the Application of Probability Risk Assessment Methodology and Hazard Risk Frequency Criteria as a Hazard Control for the Use of the Mobile Servicing System on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

D'silva, Oneil; Kerrison, Roger

2013-09-01

A key feature for the increased utilization of space robotics is to automate Extra-Vehicular manned space activities and thus significantly reduce the potential for catastrophic hazards while simultaneously minimizing the overall costs associated with manned space. The principal scope of the paper is to evaluate the use of industry standard accepted Probability risk/safety assessment (PRA/PSA) methodologies and Hazard Risk frequency Criteria as a hazard control. This paper illustrates the applicability of combining the selected Probability risk assessment methodology and hazard risk frequency criteria, in order to apply the necessary safety controls that allow for the increased use of the Mobile Servicing system (MSS) robotic system on the International Space Station. This document will consider factors such as component failure rate reliability, software reliability, and periods of operation and dormancy, fault tree analyses and their effects on the probability risk assessments. The paper concludes with suggestions for the incorporation of existing industry Risk/Safety plans to create an applicable safety process for future activities/programs

Assessing the interaction between mountain forests and snow avalanches at Nevados de Chillán, Chile and its implications for ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casteller, Alejandro; Häfelfinger, Thomas; Cortés Donoso, Erika; Podvin, Karen; Kulakowski, Dominik; Bebi, Peter

2018-04-01

Gravitational natural hazards such as snow avalanches, rockfalls, shallow landslides and volcanic activity represent a risk to mountain communities around the world. In particular, where documentary records about these processes are rare, decisions on risk management and land-use planning have to be based on a variety of other sources including vegetation, tree-ring data and natural hazard process models. We used a combination of these methods in order to evaluate dynamics of natural hazards with a focus on snow avalanches at Valle Las Trancas, in the Biobío region in Chile. Along this valley, natural hazards threaten not only the local human population, but also the numerous tourists attracted by outdoor recreational activities. Given the regional scarcity of documentary records, tree-ring methods were applied in order to reconstruct the local history of snow avalanches and debris flow events, which are the most important weather-related processes at respective tracks. A recent version of the model Rapid Mass MovementS (RAMMS), which includes influences of forest structure, was used to calculate different avalanche parameters such as runout distances and maximum pressures, taking into consideration the presence or absence of forest along the tracks as well as different modeled return periods. Our results show that local Nothofagus broadleaf forests contribute to a reduction of avalanche runout distances as well as impact pressure on present infrastructure, thus constituting a valuable ecosystem disaster risk reduction measure that can substitute or complement other traditional measures such as snow sheds.

Pesticides in Urban Multiunit Dwellings: Hazard IdentificationUsing Classification and Regression Tree (CART) Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Many units in public housing or other low-income urban dwellings may have elevated pesticide residues, given recurring infestation, but it would be logistically and economically infeasible to sample a large number of units to identify highly exposed households to design interven...

Alternative approaches to mixed conifer forest restoration: partitioning the competitive neighborhood

Treesearch

Michael I. Premer; Sophan Chhin; Jianwei Zhang

2017-01-01

Forest restoration efforts in the intermountain west of North America generally seek to promote the continuation of pine dominance, enhance wildlife habitat, and decrease hazardous fuels, thereby mitigating catastrophic losses from various stressors and disturbances. We propose a method of focal tree release thinning that partitions the...

Automatic tree parameter extraction by a Mobile LiDAR System in an urban context.

PubMed

Herrero-Huerta, Mónica; Lindenbergh, Roderik; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, Pablo

2018-01-01

In an urban context, tree data are used in city planning, in locating hazardous trees and in environmental monitoring. This study focuses on developing an innovative methodology to automatically estimate the most relevant individual structural parameters of urban trees sampled by a Mobile LiDAR System at city level. These parameters include the Diameter at Breast Height (DBH), which was estimated by circle fitting of the points belonging to different height bins using RANSAC. In the case of non-circular trees, DBH is calculated by the maximum distance between extreme points. Tree sizes were extracted through a connectivity analysis. Crown Base Height, defined as the length until the bottom of the live crown, was calculated by voxelization techniques. For estimating Canopy Volume, procedures of mesh generation and α-shape methods were implemented. Also, tree location coordinates were obtained by means of Principal Component Analysis. The workflow has been validated on 29 trees of different species sampling a stretch of road 750 m long in Delft (The Netherlands) and tested on a larger dataset containing 58 individual trees. The validation was done against field measurements. DBH parameter had a correlation R2 value of 0.92 for the height bin of 20 cm which provided the best results. Moreover, the influence of the number of points used for DBH estimation, considering different height bins, was investigated. The assessment of the other inventory parameters yield correlation coefficients higher than 0.91. The quality of the results confirms the feasibility of the proposed methodology, providing scalability to a comprehensive analysis of urban trees.

Automatic tree parameter extraction by a Mobile LiDAR System in an urban context

PubMed Central

Lindenbergh, Roderik; Rodríguez-Gonzálvez, Pablo

2018-01-01

In an urban context, tree data are used in city planning, in locating hazardous trees and in environmental monitoring. This study focuses on developing an innovative methodology to automatically estimate the most relevant individual structural parameters of urban trees sampled by a Mobile LiDAR System at city level. These parameters include the Diameter at Breast Height (DBH), which was estimated by circle fitting of the points belonging to different height bins using RANSAC. In the case of non-circular trees, DBH is calculated by the maximum distance between extreme points. Tree sizes were extracted through a connectivity analysis. Crown Base Height, defined as the length until the bottom of the live crown, was calculated by voxelization techniques. For estimating Canopy Volume, procedures of mesh generation and α-shape methods were implemented. Also, tree location coordinates were obtained by means of Principal Component Analysis. The workflow has been validated on 29 trees of different species sampling a stretch of road 750 m long in Delft (The Netherlands) and tested on a larger dataset containing 58 individual trees. The validation was done against field measurements. DBH parameter had a correlation R2 value of 0.92 for the height bin of 20 cm which provided the best results. Moreover, the influence of the number of points used for DBH estimation, considering different height bins, was investigated. The assessment of the other inventory parameters yield correlation coefficients higher than 0.91. The quality of the results confirms the feasibility of the proposed methodology, providing scalability to a comprehensive analysis of urban trees. PMID:29689076

Influence of logging on the effects of wildfire in Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukavskaya, E. A.; Buryak, L. V.; Ivanova, G. A.; Conard, S. G.; Kalenskaya, O. P.; Zhila, S. V.; McRae, D. J.

2013-12-01

The Russian boreal zone supports a huge terrestrial carbon pool. Moreover, it is a tremendous reservoir of wood products concentrated mainly in Siberia. The main natural disturbance in these forests is wildfire, which modifies the carbon budget and has potentially important climate feedbacks. In addition, both legal and illegal logging increase landscape complexity and affect burning conditions and fuel consumption. We investigated 100 individual sites with different histories of logging and fire on a total of 23 study areas in three different regions of Siberia to evaluate the impacts of fire and logging on fuel loads, carbon emissions, and tree regeneration in pine and larch forests. We found large variations of fire and logging effects among regions depending on growing conditions and type of logging activity. Logged areas in the Angara region had the highest surface and ground fuel loads (up to 135 t ha-1), mainly due to logging debris. This resulted in high carbon emissions where fires occurred on logged sites (up to 41 tC ha-1). The Shushenskoe/Minusinsk and Zabaikal regions are characterized by better slash removal and a smaller amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere during fires. Illegal logging, which is widespread in the Zabaikal region, resulted in an increase in fire hazard and higher carbon emissions than legal logging. The highest fuel loads (on average 108 t ha-1) and carbon emissions (18-28 tC ha-1) in the Zabaikal region are on repeatedly burned unlogged sites where trees fell on the ground following the first fire event. Partial logging in the Shushenskoe/Minusinsk region has insufficient impact on stand density, tree mortality, and other forest conditions to substantially increase fire hazard or affect carbon stocks. Repeated fires on logged sites resulted in insufficient tree regeneration and transformation of forest to grasslands. We conclude that negative impacts of fire and logging on air quality, the carbon cycle, and ecosystem sustainability could be decreased by better slash removal in the Angara region, removal of trees killed by fire in the Zabaikal region, and tree planting after fires in drier conditions where natural regeneration is hampered by soil overheating and grass proliferation.

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical simulation and PROFAT II: a new methodology and a computer automated tool for fault tree analysis in chemical process industries.

PubMed

Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

2000-07-10

Fault tree analysis (FTA) is based on constructing a hypothetical tree of base events (initiating events) branching into numerous other sub-events, propagating the fault and eventually leading to the top event (accident). It has been a powerful technique used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries. As the systematic articulation of the fault tree is associated with assigning probabilities to each fault, the exercise is also sometimes called probabilistic risk assessment. But powerful as this technique is, it is also very cumbersome and costly, limiting its area of application. We have developed a new algorithm based on analytical simulation (named as AS-II), which makes the application of FTA simpler, quicker, and cheaper; thus opening up the possibility of its wider use in risk assessment in chemical process industries. Based on the methodology we have developed a computer-automated tool. The details are presented in this paper.

Mines Systems Safety Improvement Using an Integrated Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Ranjan; Ghosh, Achyuta Krishna

2017-04-01

Mines systems such as ventilation system, strata support system, flame proof safety equipment, are exposed to dynamic operational conditions such as stress, humidity, dust, temperature, etc., and safety improvement of such systems can be done preferably during planning and design stage. However, the existing safety analysis methods do not handle the accident initiation and progression of mine systems explicitly. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an integrated Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) approach for safety analysis and improvement of mine systems design. This approach includes ET and FT modeling coupled with redundancy allocation technique. In this method, a concept of top hazard probability is introduced for identifying system failure probability and redundancy is allocated to the system either at component or system level. A case study on mine methane explosion safety with two initiating events is performed. The results demonstrate that the presented method can reveal the accident scenarios and improve the safety of complex mine systems simultaneously.

Chemical hazards database and detection system for Microgravity and Materials Processing Facility (MMPF)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steele, Jimmy; Smith, Robert E.

1991-01-01

The ability to identify contaminants associated with experiments and facilities is directly related to the safety of the Space Station. A means of identifying these contaminants has been developed through this contracting effort. The delivered system provides a listing of the materials and/or chemicals associated with each facility, information as to the contaminant's physical state, a list of the quantity and/or volume of each suspected contaminant, a database of the toxicological hazards associated with each contaminant, a recommended means of rapid identification of the contaminants under operational conditions, a method of identifying possible failure modes and effects analysis associated with each facility, and a fault tree-type analysis that will provide a means of identifying potential hazardous conditions related to future planned missions.

Evaluation of seismic hazard at the northwestern part of Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ezzelarab, M.; Shokry, M. M. F.; Mohamed, A. M. E.; Helal, A. M. A.; Mohamed, Abuoelela A.; El-Hadidy, M. S.

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the northwestern Egypt using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach. The Probabilistic approach was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. The doubly-truncated exponential model was adopted for calculations of the recurrence parameters. Ground-motion prediction equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 0.2° × 0.2° covering the study area, seismic hazard curves for every node were calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to six spectral periods (0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 s) for return periods of 72, 475 and 2475 years. The unified hazard spectra of two selected rock sites at Alexandria and Mersa Matruh Cities were provided. Finally, the hazard curves were de-aggregated to determine the sources that contribute most of hazard level of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for the mentioned selected sites.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of southern part of Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahulu, Sylvanus T.; Danuor, Sylvester Kojo; Asiedu, Daniel K.

2018-05-01

This paper presents a seismic hazard map for the southern part of Ghana prepared using the probabilistic approach, and seismic hazard assessment results for six cities. The seismic hazard map was prepared for 10% probability of exceedance for peak ground acceleration in 50 years. The input parameters used for the computations of hazard were obtained using data from a catalogue that was compiled and homogenised to moment magnitude (Mw). The catalogue covered a period of over a century (1615-2009). The hazard assessment is based on the Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, and hence, dependent events were identified and removed from the catalogue. The following attenuation relations were adopted and used in this study—Allen (for south and eastern Australia), Silva et al. (for Central and eastern North America), Campbell and Bozorgnia (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions) and Chiou and Youngs (for worldwide active-shallow-crust regions). Logic-tree formalism was used to account for possible uncertainties associated with the attenuation relationships. OpenQuake software package was used for the hazard calculation. The highest level of seismic hazard is found in the Accra and Tema seismic zones, with estimated peak ground acceleration close to 0.2 g. The level of the seismic hazard in the southern part of Ghana diminishes with distance away from the Accra/Tema region to a value of 0.05 g at a distance of about 140 km.

Thrown object testing of forest machine operator protective structures

Treesearch

S.E. Taylor; M.W. Veal; R.B. Rummer

2003-01-01

High-speed chains or rotating disks are commonly used to cut and process trees during forest harvesting operations. Mechanical failure or fatigue of these tools can lead to a potentially hazardous situation where fragments of chain or sawteeth are thrown through the operator enclosures on forest machines. This poster presentation discusses the development and...

Remote Sensing of Saltcedar Biological Control Effectiveness

Treesearch

Ray Carruthers; Gerald Anderson; Jack DeLoach; Jeff Knight; Shaokui Ge; Peng Gong

2006-01-01

Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) is a major invasive weed found throughout the Western United States and Mexico. Introduced into North America in the 1800s, this shrub to small tree, now infests many riparian areas where it displaces native vegetation, increases fire hazards, uses extensive amounts of water, increases flooding during high water events and...

Wood decay fungi of subalpine conifer forests

Treesearch

Jessie A. Glaeser; Kevin T. Smith

2016-01-01

One of the fundamental skills needed for hazard tree assessment is the evaluation of decay. This may be a difficult task as we usually only use external symptoms (wounds, basal swellings, decayed branch stubs), signs (mushrooms, fungal crusts or brackets) or mechanical/indirect sampling methods (drilling, electrical or sonic resistance) to estimate the amount of sound...

Landfill gases and some effects on vegetation

Treesearch

Franklin B. Flower; Ida A. Leone; Edward F. Gilman; John J. Arthur

1977-01-01

Gases moving from refuse landfills through soil were studied in New Jersey. The gases, products of anaerobic decomposition of organic matter in the refuse, caused injury and death of peach trees, ornamentals, and commercial farm crops, and create possible hazards to life and property because of the entrance of combustible gases into residences. Remedial measures are...

Probabilistic seismic hazard study based on active fault and finite element geodynamic models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kastelic, Vanja; Carafa, Michele M. C.; Visini, Francesco

2016-04-01

We present a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) that is exclusively based on active faults and geodynamic finite element input models whereas seismic catalogues were used only in a posterior comparison. We applied the developed model in the External Dinarides, a slow deforming thrust-and-fold belt at the contact between Adria and Eurasia.. is the Our method consists of establishing s two earthquake rupture forecast models: (i) a geological active fault input (GEO) model and, (ii) a finite element (FEM) model. The GEO model is based on active fault database that provides information on fault location and its geometric and kinematic parameters together with estimations on its slip rate. By default in this model all deformation is set to be released along the active faults. The FEM model is based on a numerical geodynamic model developed for the region of study. In this model the deformation is, besides along the active faults, released also in the volumetric continuum elements. From both models we calculated their corresponding activity rates, its earthquake rates and their final expected peak ground accelerations. We investigated both the source model and the earthquake model uncertainties by varying the main active fault and earthquake rate calculation parameters through constructing corresponding branches of the seismic hazard logic tree. Hazard maps and UHS curves have been produced for horizontal ground motion on bedrock conditions VS 30 ≥ 800 m/s), thereby not considering local site amplification effects. The hazard was computed over a 0.2° spaced grid considering 648 branches of the logic tree and the mean value of 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level, while the 5th and 95th percentiles were also computed to investigate the model limits. We conducted a sensitivity analysis to control which of the input parameters influence the final hazard results in which measure. The results of such comparison evidence the deformation model and with their internal variability together with the choice of the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are the most influencing parameter. Both of these parameters have significan affect on the hazard results. Thus having good knowledge of the existence of active faults and their geometric and activity characteristics is of key importance. We also show that PSHA models based exclusively on active faults and geodynamic inputs, which are thus not dependent on past earthquake occurrences, provide a valid method for seismic hazard calculation.

Relationship of tree nut, peanut and peanut butter intake with total and cause-specific mortality: a cohort study and meta-analysis.

PubMed

van den Brandt, Piet A; Schouten, Leo J

2015-06-01

Nut intake has been associated with lower mortality, but few studies have investigated causes of death other than cardiovascular disease, and dose-response relationships remain unclear. We investigated the relationship of nut (tree nut, peanut) and peanut butter intake with overall and cause-specific mortality. In the Netherlands Cohort Study, 120,852 men and women aged 55-69 years provided information on dietary and lifestyle habits in 1986. Mortality follow-up until 1996 consisted of linkage to Statistics Netherlands. Multivariate case-cohort analyses were based on 8823 deaths and 3202 subcohort members with complete data on nuts and potential confounders. We also conducted meta-analyses of our results with those published from other cohort studies. Total nut intake was related to lower overall and cause-specific mortality (cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular, respiratory, neurodegenerative diseases, other causes) in men and women. When comparing those consuming 0.1-<5, 5-<10 and 10+ g nuts/day with non-consumers, multivariable hazard ratios for total mortality were 0.88, 0.74 and 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.89], respectively (Ptrend = 0.003). Cause-specific hazard ratios comparing 10+ vs 0 g/day varied from 0.56 for neurodegenerative to 0.83 for cardiovascular disease mortality. Restricted cubic splines showed nonlinear dose-response relationships with mortality. Peanuts and tree nuts were inversely related to mortality, whereas peanut butter was not. In meta-analyses, summary hazard ratios for highest vs lowest nut consumption were 0.85 for cancer, and 0.71 for respiratory mortality. Nut intake was related to lower overall and cause-specific mortality, with evidence for nonlinear dose-response relationships. Peanut butter was not related to mortality. © The Author 2015; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

Epistemic-based investigation of the probability of hazard scenarios using Bayesian network for the lifting operation of floating objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toroody, Ahmad Bahoo; Abaiee, Mohammad Mahdi; Gholamnia, Reza; Ketabdari, Mohammad Javad

2016-09-01

Owing to the increase in unprecedented accidents with new root causes in almost all operational areas, the importance of risk management has dramatically risen. Risk assessment, one of the most significant aspects of risk management, has a substantial impact on the system-safety level of organizations, industries, and operations. If the causes of all kinds of failure and the interactions between them are considered, effective risk assessment can be highly accurate. A combination of traditional risk assessment approaches and modern scientific probability methods can help in realizing better quantitative risk assessment methods. Most researchers face the problem of minimal field data with respect to the probability and frequency of each failure. Because of this limitation in the availability of epistemic knowledge, it is important to conduct epistemic estimations by applying the Bayesian theory for identifying plausible outcomes. In this paper, we propose an algorithm and demonstrate its application in a case study for a light-weight lifting operation in the Persian Gulf of Iran. First, we identify potential accident scenarios and present them in an event tree format. Next, excluding human error, we use the event tree to roughly estimate the prior probability of other hazard-promoting factors using a minimal amount of field data. We then use the Success Likelihood Index Method (SLIM) to calculate the probability of human error. On the basis of the proposed event tree, we use the Bayesian network of the provided scenarios to compensate for the lack of data. Finally, we determine the resulting probability of each event based on its evidence in the epistemic estimation format by building on two Bayesian network types: the probability of hazard promotion factors and the Bayesian theory. The study results indicate that despite the lack of available information on the operation of floating objects, a satisfactory result can be achieved using epistemic data.

Using age of colonizing douglas-fir for the dating of young geomorphic surfaces: a case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pierson, Thomas C.

2013-01-01

Dating of many types of young (<500 year), dynamic, geomorphic landforms (e.g. mass-movement erosional tracks and deposits, alluvial terraces, flood plains, etc.) for purposes of hazard assessment and mitigation commonly requires greater dating precision than is available through radiocarbon dating or other methods. Ages of trees growing on landform surfaces have been used in a number of studies to estimate the time of landform creation or surface clearing, but the time lag between surface formation or disturbance and the reestablishment of trees can vary from 1 to more than 200 years (Desloges and Ryder 1990; Frenzen et al. 1988, 2005; Larsen and Bliss 1998; McCarthy and Luckman 1993; Sigafoos and Hendricks 1969; Winter et al. 2002). Appropriate lag times for selected tree species and for particular climatic and altitudinal ranges must be determined for the method to be useful.

A comparative critical study between FMEA and FTA risk analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cristea, G.; Constantinescu, DM

2017-10-01

Today there is used an overwhelming number of different risk analyses techniques with acronyms such as: FMEA (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) and its extension FMECA (Failure Mode, Effects, and Criticality Analysis), DRBFM (Design Review by Failure Mode), FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and and its extension ETA (Event Tree Analysis), HAZOP (Hazard & Operability Studies), HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points) and What-if/Checklist. However, the most used analysis techniques in the mechanical and electrical industry are FMEA and FTA. In FMEA, which is an inductive method, information about the consequences and effects of the failures is usually collected through interviews with experienced people, and with different knowledge i.e., cross-functional groups. The FMEA is used to capture potential failures/risks & impacts and prioritize them on a numeric scale called Risk Priority Number (RPN) which ranges from 1 to 1000. FTA is a deductive method i.e., a general system state is decomposed into chains of more basic events of components. The logical interrelationship of how such basic events depend on and affect each other is often described analytically in a reliability structure which can be visualized as a tree. Both methods are very time-consuming to be applied thoroughly, and this is why it is oftenly not done so. As a consequence possible failure modes may not be identified. To address these shortcomings, it is proposed to use a combination of FTA and FMEA.

Seismic hazard in the Istanbul metropolitan area: A preliminary re-evaluation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kalkan, E.; Gulkan, Polat; Ozturk, N.Y.; Celebi, M.

2008-01-01

In 1999, two destructive earthquakes (M7.4 Kocaeli and M7.2 Duzce) occurred in the north west of Turkey and resulted in major stress-drops on the western segment of the North Anatolian Fault system where it continues under the Marmara Sea. These undersea fault segments were recently explored using bathymetric and reflection surveys. These recent findings helped to reshape the seismotectonic environment of the Marmara basin, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on collected new information, seismic hazard of the Marmara region, particularly Istanbul Metropolitan Area and its vicinity, were re-examined using a probabilistic approach. Two seismic source and alternate recurrence models combined with various indigenous and foreign attenuation relationships were adapted within a logic tree formulation to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. The hazard maps show the peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0 s. These acceleration levels were computed for 2 and 10 % probabilities of transcendence in 50 years.

Meta-transcriptomics indicates biotic cross-tolerance in willow trees cultivated on petroleum hydrocarbon contaminated soil.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Emmanuel; Brereton, Nicholas J B; Marleau, Julie; Guidi Nissim, Werther; Labrecque, Michel; Pitre, Frederic E; Joly, Simon

2015-10-12

High concentrations of petroleum hydrocarbon (PHC) pollution can be hazardous to human health and leave soils incapable of supporting agricultural crops. A cheap solution, which can help restore biodiversity and bring land back to productivity, is cultivation of high biomass yielding willow trees. However, the genetic mechanisms which allow these fast-growing trees to tolerate PHCs are as yet unclear. Salix purpurea 'Fish Creek' trees were pot-grown in soil from a former petroleum refinery, either lacking or enriched with C10-C50 PHCs. De novo assembled transcriptomes were compared between tree organs and impartially annotated without a priori constraint to any organism. Over 45% of differentially expressed genes originated from foreign organisms, the majority from the two-spotted spidermite, Tetranychus urticae. Over 99% of T. urticae transcripts were differentially expressed with greater abundance in non-contaminated trees. Plant transcripts involved in the polypropanoid pathway, including phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL), had greater expression in contaminated trees whereas most resistance genes showed higher expression in non-contaminated trees. The impartial approach to annotation of the de novo transcriptomes, allowing for the possibility for multiple species identification, was essential for interpretation of the crop's response treatment. The meta-transcriptomic pattern of expression suggests a cross-tolerance mechanism whereby abiotic stress resistance systems provide improved biotic resistance. These findings highlight a valuable but complex biotic and abiotic stress response to real-world, multidimensional contamination which could, in part, help explain why crops such as willow can produce uniquely high biomass yields on challenging marginal land.

Twenty five years long survival analysis of an individual shortleaf pine trees

Treesearch

Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

2016-01-01

A semi parametric cox proportion hazard model is preferred when censored data and survival time information is available (Kleinbaum and Klein 1996; Alison 2010). Censored data are observations that have incomplete information related to survival time or event time of interest. In repeated forest measurements, usually observations are either right censored or...

Understanding the disposal and utilization options for Phytophthora ramorum infested wood

Treesearch

John Shelly; Ramnik Singh; Christine Langford; Tad Mason

2006-01-01

Removing trees inflicted with the sudden oak death (SOD) disease is often necessary because of hazard issues or homeowner/landowner desires. An alternative to disposal of this material is to find acceptable uses for this diseased material. A series of studies is being conducted to help understand the risk of spreading the Phytophthora ramorum...

A density management diagram for Norway spruce in the temperate Europe montane region

Treesearch

Giorgio Vacchiano; R. Justin DeRose; John D. Shaw; Miroslav Svoboda; Renzo Motta

2013-01-01

Norway spruce is one of the most important conifer tree species in Europe, paramount for timber provision, habitat, recreation, and protection of mountain roads and settlements from natural hazards. Although natural Norway spruce forests exhibit diverse structures, even-aged stands can arise after disturbance or as the result of common silvicultural practice, including...

Behaviour and effects of prescribed fire in masticated fuelbeds

Treesearch

Eric Knapp; J. Morgan Varner; Matt Busse; Carl Skinner; Carol Shestak

2011-01-01

Mechanical mastication converts shrub and small tree fuels into surface fuels, and this method is being widely used as a treatment to reduce fire hazard. The compactness of these fuelbeds is thought to moderate fire behaviour, but whether standard fuel models can accurately predict fire behaviour and effects is poorly understood. Prescribed burns were conducted in...

Quantifying Ladder Fuels: A New Approach Using LiDAR

Treesearch

Heather Kramer; Brandon Collins; Maggi Kelly; Scott Stephens

2014-01-01

We investigated the relationship between LiDAR and ladder fuels in the northern Sierra Nevada, California USA. Ladder fuels are often targeted in hazardous fuel reduction treatments due to their role in propagating fire from the forest floor to tree crowns. Despite their importance, ladder fuels are difficult to quantify. One common approach is to calculate canopy base...

Mulching effects on vegetation recovery following high severity wildfire in north-central Washington State, USA

Treesearch

Erich Kyle Dodson; David W. Peterson

2010-01-01

Straw mulch application after high severity wildfire has gained favor in recent years due to its efficacy in reducing soil erosion hazards. However, possible collateral effects of mulching on post-fire vegetation recovery have received relatively little study. We assessed mulching effects on plant cover and species richness, tree seedling establishment, and...

Tritium Concentrations in Environmental Samples and Transpiration Rates from the Vicinity of Mary's Branch Creek and Background Areas, Barnwell, South Carolina, 2007-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vroblesky, Don A.; Canova, Judy L.; Bradley, Paul M.; Landmeyer, James E.

2009-01-01

Tritium in groundwater from a low-level radioactive waste disposal facility near Barnwell, South Carolina, is discharging to Mary's Branch Creek. The U.S. Geological Survey conducted an investigation from 2007 to 2009 to examine the tritium concentration in trees and air samples near the creek and in background areas, in groundwater near the creek, and in surface water from the creek. Tritium was found in trees near the creek, but not in trees from background areas or from sites unlikely to be in direct root contact with tritium-contaminated groundwater. Tritium was found in groundwater near the creek and in the surface water of the creek. Analysis of tree material has the potential to be a useful tool in locating shallow tritium-contaminated groundwater. A tritium concentration of 1.4 million picocuries per liter was measured in shallow groundwater collected near a tulip poplar located in an area of tritium-contaminated groundwater discharge. Evapotranspiration rates from the tree and tritium concentrations in water extracted from tree cores indicate that during the summer, this tulip poplar may remove more than 17.1 million picocuries of tritium per day from the groundwater that otherwise would discharge to Mary's Branch Creek. Analysis of air samples near the tree showed no evidence that the transpirative release of tritium to the air created a vapor hazard in the forest.

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees

PubMed Central

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees. PMID:25972877

Effects of environmental factors and management practices on microclimate, winter physiology, and frost resistance in trees.

PubMed

Charrier, Guillaume; Ngao, Jérôme; Saudreau, Marc; Améglio, Thierry

2015-01-01

Freezing stress is one of the most important limiting factors determining the ecological distribution and production of tree species. Assessment of frost risk is, therefore, critical for forestry, fruit production, and horticulture. Frost risk is substantial when hazard (i.e., exposure to damaging freezing temperatures) intersects with vulnerability (i.e., frost sensitivity). Based on a large number of studies on frost resistance and frost occurrence, we highlight the complex interactive roles of environmental conditions, carbohydrates, and water status in frost risk development. To supersede the classical empirical relations used to model frost hardiness, we propose an integrated ecophysiologically-based framework of frost risk assessment. This framework details the individual or interactive roles of these factors, and how they are distributed in time and space at the individual-tree level (within-crown and across organs). Based on this general framework, we are able to highlight factors by which different environmental conditions (e.g., temperature, light, flood, and drought), and management practices (pruning, thinning, girdling, sheltering, water aspersion, irrigation, and fertilization) influence frost sensitivity and frost exposure of trees.

Self-organization, the cascade model, and natural hazards.

PubMed

Turcotte, Donald L; Malamud, Bruce D; Guzzetti, Fausto; Reichenbach, Paola

2002-02-19

We consider the frequency-size statistics of two natural hazards, forest fires and landslides. Both appear to satisfy power-law (fractal) distributions to a good approximation under a wide variety of conditions. Two simple cellular-automata models have been proposed as analogs for this observed behavior, the forest fire model for forest fires and the sand pile model for landslides. The behavior of these models can be understood in terms of a self-similar inverse cascade. For the forest fire model the cascade consists of the coalescence of clusters of trees; for the sand pile model the cascade consists of the coalescence of metastable regions.

Self-organization, the cascade model, and natural hazards

PubMed Central

Turcotte, Donald L.; Malamud, Bruce D.; Guzzetti, Fausto; Reichenbach, Paola

2002-01-01

We consider the frequency-size statistics of two natural hazards, forest fires and landslides. Both appear to satisfy power-law (fractal) distributions to a good approximation under a wide variety of conditions. Two simple cellular-automata models have been proposed as analogs for this observed behavior, the forest fire model for forest fires and the sand pile model for landslides. The behavior of these models can be understood in terms of a self-similar inverse cascade. For the forest fire model the cascade consists of the coalescence of clusters of trees; for the sand pile model the cascade consists of the coalescence of metastable regions. PMID:11875206

Making the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission safe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bahr, N. J.; Depalo, S. V.

1992-01-01

The implementation of the HST system safety program is detailed. Numerous safety analyses are conducted through various phases of design, test, and fabrication, and results are presented to NASA management for discussion during dedicated safety reviews. Attention is given to the system safety assessment and risk analysis methodologies used, i.e., hazard analysis, fault tree analysis, and failure modes and effects analysis, and to how they are coupled with engineering and test analysis for a 'synergistic picture' of the system. Some preliminary safety analysis results, showing the relationship between hazard identification, control or abatement, and finally control verification, are presented as examples of this safety process.

Impact of fault models on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: the example of the West Corinth rift.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chartier, Thomas; Scotti, Oona; Boiselet, Aurelien; Lyon-Caen, Hélène

2016-04-01

Including faults in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment tends to increase the degree of uncertainty in the results due to the intrinsically uncertain nature of the fault data. This is especially the case in the low to moderate seismicity regions of Europe, where slow slipping faults are difficult to characterize. In order to better understand the key parameters that control the uncertainty in the fault-related hazard computations, we propose to build an analytic tool that provides a clear link between the different components of the fault-related hazard computations and their impact on the results. This will allow identifying the important parameters that need to be better constrained in order to reduce the resulting uncertainty in hazard and also provide a more hazard-oriented strategy for collecting relevant fault parameters in the field. The tool will be illustrated through the example of the West Corinth rifts fault-models. Recent work performed in the gulf has shown the complexity of the normal faulting system that is accommodating the extensional deformation of the rift. A logic-tree approach is proposed to account for this complexity and the multiplicity of scientifically defendable interpretations. At the nodes of the logic tree, different options that could be considered at each step of the fault-related seismic hazard will be considered. The first nodes represent the uncertainty in the geometries of the faults and their slip rates, which can derive from different data and methodologies. The subsequent node explores, for a given geometry/slip rate of faults, different earthquake rupture scenarios that may occur in the complex network of faults. The idea is to allow the possibility of several faults segments to break together in a single rupture scenario. To build these multiple-fault-segment scenarios, two approaches are considered: one based on simple rules (i.e. minimum distance between faults) and a second one that relies on physically-based simulations. The following nodes represents for each rupture scenario different rupture forecast models (i.e; characteristic or Gutenberg-Richter) and for a given rupture forecast, two probability models commonly used in seismic hazard assessment: poissonian or time-dependent. The final node represents an exhaustive set of ground motion prediction equations chosen in order to be compatible with the region. Finally, the expected probability of exceeding a given ground motion level is computed at each sites. Results will be discussed for a few specific localities of the West Corinth Gulf.

Measuring urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes.

PubMed

Ossola, Alessandro; Hopton, Matthew E

2018-01-15

The spatial arrangement of urban vegetation depends on urban morphology and socio-economic settings. Urban vegetation changes over time because of human management. Urban trees are removed due to hazard prevention or aesthetic preferences. Previous research attributed tree loss to decreases in canopy cover. However, this provides little information about location and structural characteristics of trees lost, as well as environmental and social factors affecting tree loss dynamics. This is particularly relevant in residential landscapes where access to residential parcels for field surveys is limited. We tested whether multi-temporal airborne LiDAR and multi-spectral imagery collected at a 5-year interval can be used to investigate urban tree loss dynamics across residential landscapes in Denver, CO and Milwaukee, WI, covering 400,705 residential parcels in 444 census tracts. Position and stem height of trees lost were extracted from canopy height models calculated as the difference between final (year 5) and initial (year 0) vegetation height derived from LiDAR. Multivariate regression models were used to predict number and height of tree stems lost in residential parcels in each census tract based on urban morphological and socio-economic variables. A total of 28,427 stems were lost from residential parcels in Denver and Milwaukee over 5years. Overall, 7% of residential parcels lost one stem, averaging 90.87 stems per km 2 . Average stem height was 10.16m, though trees lost in Denver were taller compared to Milwaukee. The number of stems lost was higher in neighborhoods with higher canopy cover and developed before the 1970s. However, socio-economic characteristics had little effect on tree loss dynamics. The study provides a simple method for measuring urban tree loss dynamics within and across entire cities, and represents a further step toward high resolution assessments of the three-dimensional change of urban vegetation at large spatial scales. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of flash floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; Bodoque, José M.; Ballesteros, Juan A.

2010-06-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash flood events during the last 50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Dendrogeomorphic analysis of Flash Floods in a small ungauged mountain catchment (Central Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Díez-Herrero, Andrés.; Stoffel, Markus; Bollschweiler, Michelle; María Bodoque, José; Ballesteros, Juan Antonio

2010-05-01

Flash floods represent one of the most significant natural hazards with serious death tolls and economic damage at a worldwide level in general and in Mediterranean mountain catchments in particular. In these environments, systematic data is often lacking and analyses have to be based on alternative approaches such as dendrogeomorphology. In this study, we focus on the identification of flash floods based on growth disturbances (GD) observed in 98 heavily affected Mediterranean pine trees (Pinus pinaster Ait.) located in or next to the torrential channel of the Pelayo River in the Spanish Central System. Flash floods are quite common in this catchment and are triggered by heavy storms, with high discharge and debris transport rates favoured by high stream gradients. Comparison of the anomalies in tree morphology and the position of the trees in the channel showed that the intensity of the disturbance clearly depends on geomorphology. The dating of past flash-flood events was based on the number and intensity of GD observed in the tree-ring series, and on the spatial distribution of affected trees along the torrent, thus allowing seven flash-flood events during the last ~50 years to be dated, namely in 1963, 1966, 1973, 1976, 1996, 2000, and 2005.

Estimation on rubber tree disturbance caused by typhoon Damery (200518) with Landsat and MODIS data in Hainan Island of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Chenyan; Fang, Weihua; Li, Jian

2016-04-01

In 2005, Typhoon Damery (200518) caused severe damage to the rubber trees in Hainan Island with its destructive winds and rainfall. Selection of proper vegetation indices using multi-source remote sensing data is critical to the assessment of forest disturbance and damage loss for this event. In this study, we will compare the performance of seven vegetation indices derived from MODIS and Landsat TM imageries prior to and after typhoon Damery, in order to select an optimal index for identifying rubber tree disturbance. The indices to be compared are normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII), Enhanced vegetation index (EVI), Leaf area index (LAI), forest z-score (IFZ), and Disturbance Index (DI). The ground truth data of rubber tree damage collected through field investigation was used to verify and compare the results. Our preliminary result for the area with ground-truth data shows that DI has the most significant performance for disturbance detection for this typhoon event. This index DI is then applied to all the areas in Hainan Island hit by Darmey to evaluate the overall forest damage severity. At last, rubber tree damage severity is analyzed with other typhoon hazard factors such as wind, topography, soil and precipitation.

Ten years after wildfires: How does varying tree mortality impact fire hazard and forest resiliency?

Treesearch

Camille S. Stevens-Rumann; Carolyn H. Sieg; Molly E. Hunter

2012-01-01

Severe wildfires across the western US have lead to concerns about heavy surface fuel loading and the potential for high-intensity reburning. Ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, often overly dense from a century of fire suppression, are increasingly susceptible to large and severe wildfires especially given warmer and drier climate projections for the future....

FTM-West : fuel treatment market model for U.S. West

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Andrew Kramp; Henry Spelter; Ken Skog; Dennis Dykstra

2006-01-01

This paper presents FTM–West, a partial market equilibrium model designed to project future wood market impacts of significantly expanded fuel treatment programs that could remove trees to reduce fire hazard on forestlands in the U.S. West. FTM–West was designed to account for structural complexities in marketing and utilization that arise from unconventional size...

The effect of salvage logging on surface fuel loads and fuel moisture in beetle-infested lodgepole pine forests

Treesearch

Paul R. Hood; Kellen N. Nelson; Charles C. Rhoades; Daniel B. Tinker

2017-01-01

Widespread tree mortality from mountain pine beetle (MPB; Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) outbreaks has prompted forest management activities to reduce crown fire hazard in the Rocky Mountain region. However, little is known about how beetle-related salvage logging and biomass utilization options affect woody surface fuel loads and fuel moisture dynamics. We compared...

Relationships between overstory composition and gypsy moth egg-mass density

Treesearch

Robert W. Campbell

1974-01-01

Most of the silvicultural recommendations for reducing the hazard of gypsy moth outbreaks have been based in part on the premise that gypsy moth density levels are related closely to the proportion of favored food trees in the overstory. This premise did not prove to be true for a series of plots observed in eastern New England between 1911 and 1931.

Striving for balance: maintaining marten habitat while reducing fuels

Treesearch

John Kirkland; Katie Moriarty

2016-01-01

Martens are small forest carnivores associated with dense, mature forests. These important indicators of a forest’s biodiversity are vulnerable to management activities that open the forest canopy or remove downed debris. Many fuel reduction treatment do just that: dense stands of trees are thinned to minimize fire hazard and future fire severity. Until recently, the...

Assessment of timber availability from forest restoration within the Blue Mountains of Oregon.

Treesearch

Robert Rainville; Rachel White; Jamie Barbour

2008-01-01

Changes in forest management have detrimentally affected the economic health of small communities in the Blue Mountain region of Oregon over the past few decades. A build-up of small trees threatens the ecological health of these forests and increases wildland fire hazard. Hoping to boost their economies and also restore these forests, local leaders are interested in...

The impact of aging on laboratory fire behaviour in masticated shrub fuelbeds of California and Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Jesse K. Kreye; J. Morgan Varner; Jeffrey M. Kane; Eric E. Knapp; Warren P. Reed

2016-01-01

Mastication of shrubs and small trees to reduce fire hazard has become a widespread management practice, yet many aspects of the fire behaviour of these unique woody fuelbeds remain poorly understood. To examine the effects of fuelbed aging on fire behaviour, we conducted laboratory burns with masticated Arctostaphylos spp. and Ceanothus...

Predicting mortality of ponderosa pine regeneration after prescribed fire in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA

Treesearch

Mike Battaglia; Frederick W. Smith; Wayne D. Shepperd

2009-01-01

Reduction of crown fire hazard in Pinus ponderosa forests in the Black Hills, SD, often focuses on the removal of overstorey trees to reduce crown bulk density. Dense ponderosa pine regeneration establishes several years after treatment and eventually increases crown fire risk if allowed to grow. Using prescribed fire to control this regeneration is...

Architecture Analysis with AADL: The Speed Regulation Case-Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-01

Overview Functional Hazard Analysis ( FHA ) Failures inventory with description, classification, etc. Fault-Tree Analysis (FTA) Dependencies between...University Pittsburgh, PA 15213 Julien Delange Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of...Information Operations and Reports , 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any

Fire hazard from precommercial thinning of ponderosa pine.

Treesearch

George R. Fahnestock

1968-01-01

Precommercial thinning lately has become a major feature in management of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Laws.) on the National Forests in Oregon and Washington. Nearly 47,000 acres were thinned in 1966, up from 9,196 in 1959; and the upward trend appears certain to continue. Current practice is to cut the trees with a powersaw about a foot above...

Mulching fuels treatments promote understory plant communities in three Colorado, USA, coniferous forest types

Treesearch

Paula J. Fornwalt; Monique E. Rocca; Michael Battaglia; Charles C. Rhoades; Michael G. Ryan

2017-01-01

Mulching fuels treatments have been increasingly implemented by forest managers in the western USA to reduce crown fire hazard. These treatments use heavy machinery to masticate or chip unwanted shrubs and small-diameter trees and broadcast the mulched material on the ground. Because mulching treatments are relatively novel and have no natural analog, their ecological...

Surface fuel changes after severe disturbances in northern Rocky Mountain ecosystems

Treesearch

Chris Stalling; Robert E. Keane; Molly Retzlaff

2017-01-01

It is generally assumed that severe disturbances predispose damaged forests to high fire hazard by creating heavy fuel loading conditions. Of special concern is the perception that surface fuel loadings become high as recently killed trees deposit foliage and woody material on the ground and that these high fuel loadings may cause abnormally severe fires. This study...

Deep convolutional neural network processing of aerial stereo imagery to monitor vulnerable zones near power lines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qayyum, Abdul; Saad, Naufal M.; Kamel, Nidal; Malik, Aamir Saeed

2018-01-01

The monitoring of vegetation near high-voltage transmission power lines and poles is tedious. Blackouts present a huge challenge to power distribution companies and often occur due to tree growth in hilly and rural areas. There are numerous methods of monitoring hazardous overgrowth that are expensive and time-consuming. Accurate estimation of tree and vegetation heights near power poles can prevent the disruption of power transmission in vulnerable zones. This paper presents a cost-effective approach based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) algorithm to compute the height (depth maps) of objects proximal to power poles and transmission lines. The proposed CNN extracts and classifies features by employing convolutional pooling inputs to fully connected data layers that capture prominent features from stereo image patches. Unmanned aerial vehicle or satellite stereo image datasets can thus provide a feasible and cost-effective approach that identifies threat levels based on height and distance estimations of hazardous vegetation and other objects. Results were compared with extant disparity map estimation techniques, such as graph cut, dynamic programming, belief propagation, and area-based methods. The proposed method achieved an accuracy rate of 90%.

Using transportation accident databases to investigate ignition and explosion probabilities of flammable spills.

PubMed

Ronza, A; Vílchez, J A; Casal, J

2007-07-19

Risk assessment of hazardous material spill scenarios, and quantitative risk assessment in particular, make use of event trees to account for the possible outcomes of hazardous releases. Using event trees entails the definition of probabilities of occurrence for events such as spill ignition and blast formation. This study comprises an extensive analysis of ignition and explosion probability data proposed in previous work. Subsequently, the results of the survey of two vast US federal spill databases (HMIRS, by the Department of Transportation, and MINMOD, by the US Coast Guard) are reported and commented on. Some tens of thousands of records of hydrocarbon spills were analysed. The general pattern of statistical ignition and explosion probabilities as a function of the amount and the substance spilled is discussed. Equations are proposed based on statistical data that predict the ignition probability of hydrocarbon spills as a function of the amount and the substance spilled. Explosion probabilities are put forth as well. Two sets of probability data are proposed: it is suggested that figures deduced from HMIRS be used in land transportation risk assessment, and MINMOD results with maritime scenarios assessment. Results are discussed and compared with previous technical literature.

DTREEv2, a computer-based support system for the risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

PubMed

Pertry, Ine; Nothegger, Clemens; Sweet, Jeremy; Kuiper, Harry; Davies, Howard; Iserentant, Dirk; Hull, Roger; Mezzetti, Bruno; Messens, Kathy; De Loose, Marc; de Oliveira, Dulce; Burssens, Sylvia; Gheysen, Godelieve; Tzotzos, George

2014-03-25

Risk assessment of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) remains a contentious area and a major factor influencing the adoption of agricultural biotech. Methodologically, in many countries, risk assessment is conducted by expert committees with little or no recourse to databases and expert systems that can facilitate the risk assessment process. In this paper we describe DTREEv2, a computer-based decision support system for the identification of hazards related to the introduction of GM-crops into the environment. DTREEv2 structures hazard identification and evaluation by means of an Event-Tree type of analysis. The system produces an output flagging identified hazards and potential risks. It is intended to be used for the preparation and evaluation of biosafety dossiers and, as such, its usefulness extends to researchers, risk assessors and regulators in government and industry. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic hazard in the Nation's breadbasket

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver; Haller, Kathleen; Luco, Nicolas; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Mueller, Charles; Petersen, Mark D.; Rezaeian, Sanaz; Rubinstein, Justin L.

2015-01-01

The USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps were updated in 2014 and included several important changes for the central United States (CUS). Background seismicity sources were improved using a new moment-magnitude-based catalog; a new adaptive, nearest-neighbor smoothing kernel was implemented; and maximum magnitudes for background sources were updated. Areal source zones developed by the Central and Eastern United States Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities project were simplified and adopted. The weighting scheme for ground motion models was updated, giving more weight to models with a faster attenuation with distance compared to the previous maps. Overall, hazard changes (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, across a range of ground-motion frequencies) were smaller than 10% in most of the CUS relative to the 2008 USGS maps despite new ground motion models and their assigned logic tree weights that reduced the probabilistic ground motions by 5–20%.

Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

2018-04-01

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Tree stability under wind: simulating uprooting with root breakage using a finite element method.

PubMed

Yang, Ming; Défossez, Pauline; Danjon, Frédéric; Fourcaud, Thierry

2014-09-01

Windstorms are the major natural hazard affecting European forests, causing tree damage and timber losses. Modelling tree anchorage mechanisms has progressed with advances in plant architectural modelling, but it is still limited in terms of estimation of anchorage strength. This paper aims to provide a new model for root anchorage, including the successive breakage of roots during uprooting. The model was based on the finite element method. The breakage of individual roots was taken into account using a failure law derived from previous work carried out on fibre metal laminates. Soil mechanical plasticity was considered using the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. The mechanical model for roots was implemented in the numerical code ABAQUS using beam elements embedded in a soil block meshed with 3-D solid elements. The model was tested by simulating tree-pulling experiments previously carried out on a tree of Pinus pinaster (maritime pine). Soil mechanical parameters were obtained from laboratory tests. Root system architecture was digitized and imported into ABAQUS while root material properties were estimated from the literature. Numerical simulations of tree-pulling tests exhibited realistic successive root breakages during uprooting, which could be seen in the resulting response curves. Broken roots could be visually located within the root system at any stage of the simulations. The model allowed estimation of anchorage strength in terms of the critical turning moment and accumulated energy, which were in good agreement with in situ measurements. This study provides the first model of tree anchorage strength for P. pinaster derived from the mechanical strength of individual roots. The generic nature of the model permits its further application to other tree species and soil conditions.

Tree stability under wind: simulating uprooting with root breakage using a finite element method

PubMed Central

Yang, Ming; Défossez, Pauline; Danjon, Frédéric; Fourcaud, Thierry

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Windstorms are the major natural hazard affecting European forests, causing tree damage and timber losses. Modelling tree anchorage mechanisms has progressed with advances in plant architectural modelling, but it is still limited in terms of estimation of anchorage strength. This paper aims to provide a new model for root anchorage, including the successive breakage of roots during uprooting. Methods The model was based on the finite element method. The breakage of individual roots was taken into account using a failure law derived from previous work carried out on fibre metal laminates. Soil mechanical plasticity was considered using the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion. The mechanical model for roots was implemented in the numerical code ABAQUS using beam elements embedded in a soil block meshed with 3-D solid elements. The model was tested by simulating tree-pulling experiments previously carried out on a tree of Pinus pinaster (maritime pine). Soil mechanical parameters were obtained from laboratory tests. Root system architecture was digitized and imported into ABAQUS while root material properties were estimated from the literature. Key Results Numerical simulations of tree-pulling tests exhibited realistic successive root breakages during uprooting, which could be seen in the resulting response curves. Broken roots could be visually located within the root system at any stage of the simulations. The model allowed estimation of anchorage strength in terms of the critical turning moment and accumulated energy, which were in good agreement with in situ measurements. Conclusions This study provides the first model of tree anchorage strength for P. pinaster derived from the mechanical strength of individual roots. The generic nature of the model permits its further application to other tree species and soil conditions. PMID:25006178

Associations between allergies and risk of hematologic malignancies: results from the VITamins and lifestyle cohort study.

PubMed

Shadman, Mazyar; White, Emily; De Roos, Anneclaire J; Walter, Roland B

2013-12-01

Immune dysregulations associated with allergies may affect cancer cell biology but studies on the relationship between allergies and risk of hematologic malignancies (HM) yielded inconsistent results. Herein, we used the vitamins and Lifestyle (VITAL) cohort to examine this association. From 2000 to 2002, 66,212 participants, aged 50-76, completed a baseline questionnaire on cancer risk factors, medical conditions, allergies, and asthma. Through 2009, incident HMs (n = 681) were identified via linkage to the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results cancer registry. After adjustment for factors possibly associated with HMs, a history of airborne allergy was associated with increased risk of HMs (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.19 [95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.41], P = 0.039) in Cox proportional hazards models. This association was limited to allergies to plants/grass/trees (HR = 1.26 [1.05-1.50], P = 0.011) and was strongest for some mature B-cell lymphomas (HR = 1.50 [1.14-2.00], P = 0.005). Gender-stratified analyses revealed that the associations between airborne allergies overall and those to plants, grass, and trees were only seen in women (HR = 1.47 [1.14-1.91], P = 0.004; and HR = 1.73 [1.32-2.25], P < 0.001) but not men (HR = 1.03 [0.82-1.29], P = 0.782; and HR = 0.99 [0.77-1.27], P = 0.960). Together, our study indicates a moderately increased risk of HMs in women but not men with a history of allergies to airborne allergens, especially to plant, grass, or trees. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Recent Mega-Thrust Tsunamigenic Earthquakes and PTHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, S.

2013-05-01

The occurrence of several mega-thrust tsunamigenic earthquakes in the last decade, including but not limited to the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, the 2010 Maule, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, has been a dramatic reminder of the limitations in our capability of assessing earthquake and tsunami hazard and risk. However, the increasingly high-quality geophysical observational networks allowed the retrieval of most accurate than ever models of the rupture process of mega-thrust earthquakes, thus paving the way for future improved hazard assessments. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) methodology, in particular, is less mature than its seismic counterpart, PSHA. Worldwide recent research efforts of the tsunami science community allowed to start filling this gap, and to define some best practices that are being progressively employed in PTHA for different regions and coasts at threat. In the first part of my talk, I will briefly review some rupture models of recent mega-thrust earthquakes, and highlight some of their surprising features that likely result in bigger error bars associated to PTHA results. More specifically, recent events of unexpected size at a given location, and with unexpected rupture process features, posed first-order open questions which prevent the definition of an heterogeneous rupture probability along a subduction zone, despite of several recent promising results on the subduction zone seismic cycle. In the second part of the talk, I will dig a bit more into a specific ongoing effort for improving PTHA methods, in particular as regards epistemic and aleatory uncertainties determination, and the computational PTHA feasibility when considering the full assumed source variability. Only logic trees are usually explicated in PTHA studies, accounting for different possible assumptions on the source zone properties and behavior. The selection of the earthquakes to be actually modelled is then in general made on a qualitative basis or remains implicit, despite different methods like event trees have been used for different applications. I will define a quite general PTHA framework, based on the mixed use of logic and event trees. I will first discuss a particular class of epistemic uncertainties, i.e. those related to the parametric fault characterization in terms of geometry, kinematics, and assessment of activity rates. A systematic classification in six justification levels of epistemic uncertainty related with the existence and behaviour of fault sources will be presented. Then, a particular branch of the logic tree is chosen in order to discuss just the aleatory variability of earthquake parameters, represented with an event tree. Even so, PTHA based on numerical scenarios is a too demanding computational task, particularly when probabilistic inundation maps are needed. For trying to reduce the computational burden without under-representing the source variability, the event tree is first constructed by taking care of densely (over-)sampling the earthquake parameter space, and then the earthquakes are filtered basing on their associated tsunami impact offshore, before calculating inundation maps. I'll describe this approach by means of a case study in the Mediterranean Sea, namely the PTHA for some locations of Eastern Sicily coasts and Southern Crete coast due to potential subduction earthquakes occurring on the Hellenic Arc.

Drought impact functions as intermediate step towards drought damage assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachmair, Sophie; Svensson, Cecilia; Prosdocimi, Ilaria; Hannaford, Jamie; Helm Smith, Kelly; Svoboda, Mark; Stahl, Kerstin

2016-04-01

While damage or vulnerability functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is comparably little knowledge on drought damage or loss. On the one hand this is due to the complexity of the drought hazard affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity. Hence, a single hazard indicator is likely not able to fully capture this multifaceted hazard. On the other hand, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetize. Examples are impaired navigability of streams, restrictions on domestic water use, reduced hydropower production, reduced tree growth, and irreversible deterioration/loss of wetlands. Apart from reduced crop yield, data about drought damage or loss with adequate spatial and temporal resolution is scarce, making the development of drought damage functions difficult. As an intermediate step towards drought damage functions we exploit text-based reports on drought impacts from the European Drought Impact report Inventory and the US Drought Impact Reporter to derive surrogate information for drought damage or loss. First, text-based information on drought impacts is converted into timeseries of absence versus presence of impacts, or number of impact occurrences. Second, meaningful hydro-meteorological indicators characterizing drought intensity are identified. Third, different statistical models are tested as link functions relating drought hazard indicators with drought impacts: 1) logistic regression for drought impacts coded as binary response variable; and 2) mixture/hurdle models (zero-inflated/zero-altered negative binomial regression) and an ensemble regression tree approach for modeling the number of drought impact occurrences. Testing the predictability of (number of) drought impact occurrences based on cross-validation revealed a good agreement between observed and modeled (number of) impacts for regions at the scale of federal states or provinces with good data availability. Impact functions representing localized drought impacts are more challenging to construct given that less data is available, yet may provide information that more directly addresses stakeholders' needs. Overall, our study contributes insights into how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts, and how such information may be used for enhancing drought monitoring and early warning.

Dry borax applicator operator's manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karsky, Richard, J.

1999-01-01

Annosum root rot affects conifers throughout the Northern Hemisphere, infecting their roots and eventually killing the trees. The fungus Heterobasidion annosum causes annosum root rot. The fungus colonizes readily on freshly cut stumps. Partially cut stands have a high risk of infestation because the fungus can colonize on each of the stumps and potentially infect the neighboring trees. Wind and rain carry the annosum spores. Spores that land on freshly cut stumps grow down the stump's root system where they can infect living trees through root grafts or root contacts. Once annosum becomes established, it can remain active for manymore » years in the Southern United States and for several decades in the north. About 7% of the trees that become infected die. When thinning, stumps can be treated successfully using a competing fungus, Phlebia gigantea, and with ''Tim-Bor'' in liquid formulations. These liquid products are no longer approved in the United States. Only the dry powder form is registered and approved by the EPA. Stumps can be treated with a dry formula of borax, (Sporax), significantly reducing one of the primary routes by which Heterobasidion annosum infects a stand of trees. Sporax is used by the USDA Forest Service to control annosum root rot. Sporax is now applied by hand, but once the felled trees are skidded it becomes very hard to locate the stumps. A stump applicator will reduce error, labor costs, and hazards to workers.« less

PyBetVH: A Python tool for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment and for generation of Bayesian hazard curves and maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Anne Thompson, Mary

2015-06-01

PyBetVH is a completely new, free, open-source and cross-platform software implementation of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH), a tool for estimating the probability of any magmatic hazardous phenomenon occurring in a selected time frame, accounting for all the uncertainties. New capabilities of this implementation include the ability to calculate hazard curves which describe the distribution of the exceedance probability as a function of intensity (e.g., tephra load) on a grid of points covering the target area. The computed hazard curves are (i) absolute (accounting for the probability of eruption in a given time frame, and for all the possible vent locations and eruptive sizes) and (ii) Bayesian (computed at different percentiles, in order to quantify the epistemic uncertainty). Such curves allow representation of the full information contained in the probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) and are well suited to become a main input to quantitative risk analyses. PyBetVH allows for interactive visualization of both the computed hazard curves, and the corresponding Bayesian hazard/probability maps. PyBetVH is designed to minimize the efforts of end users, making PVHA results accessible to people who may be less experienced in probabilistic methodologies, e.g. decision makers. The broad compatibility of Python language has also allowed PyBetVH to be installed on the VHub cyber-infrastructure, where it can be run online or downloaded at no cost. PyBetVH can be used to assess any type of magmatic hazard from any volcano. Here we illustrate how to perform a PVHA through PyBetVH using the example of analyzing tephra fallout from the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC), New Zealand, and highlight the range of outputs that the tool can generate.

A probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-11-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

CFD model simulation of LPG dispersion in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontiggia, Marco; Landucci, Gabriele; Busini, Valentina; Derudi, Marco; Alba, Mario; Scaioni, Marco; Bonvicini, Sarah; Cozzani, Valerio; Rota, Renato

2011-08-01

There is an increasing concern related to the releases of industrial hazardous materials (either toxic or flammable) due to terrorist attacks or accidental events in congested industrial or urban areas. In particular, a reliable estimation of the hazardous cloud footprint as a function of time is required to assist emergency response decision and planning as a primary element of any Decision Support System. Among the various hazardous materials, the hazard due to the road and rail transportation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is well known since large quantities of LPG are commercialized and the rail or road transportation patterns are often close to downtown areas. Since it is well known that the widely-used dispersion models do not account for the effects of any obstacle like buildings, tanks, railcars, or trees, in this paper a CFD model has been applied to simulate the reported consequences of a recent major accident involving an LPG railcar rupture in a congested urban area (Viareggio town, in Italy), showing both the large influence of the obstacles on LPG dispersion as well as the potentials of CFD models to foresee such an influence.

Analyzing lead absorption by the sycamore tree species in the industrial park of Rasht, Iran.

PubMed

Hashemi, Seyed Armin; FallahChay, Mir Mozaffar; Tarighi, Fattaneh

2015-07-01

In this study, the subject of heavy metal concentration in soil, rock, sediment, surface water and groundwater, which can be caused by natural or man-posed pollution, was analyzed in the industrial park of Rasht. These concentrations were compared with the standard range of environmental data. Heavy metals are important environmental pollutants that can cause health hazards to humans, plants and microorganisms by entering food chain. This study aimed to investigate the absorption of lead by the leaves of sycamore tree species in the industrial park of Rasht. For this purpose, a sample of 32 sycamore tree species were randomly selected at a specified time, and the concentration of lead were measured using an atomic absorption device. Results showed that the amount of lead absorption by sycamore leaves is remarkable. The highest amount of lead absorption by sycamore leaves was detected at station 1 (Khazar Steel) and the lowest amount at station 2 (control station). © The Author(s) 2012.

Stereo-vision-based terrain mapping for off-road autonomous navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-05-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as nogo regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rankin, Arturo L.; Huertas, Andres; Matthies, Larry H.

2009-01-01

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

Shrub seed banks in mixed conifer forests of northern California and the role of fire in regulating abundance

Treesearch

Eric E. Knapp; Phillip C. Weatherspoon; Carl N. Skinner

2012-01-01

Understory shrubs play important ecological roles in forests of the western US, but they can also impede early tree growth and lead to fire hazard concerns when very dense. Some of the more common genera (Ceanothus, Arctostaphylos, and Prunus) persist for long periods in the seed bank, even in areas where plants have been...

Design and objectives of FTM-West model

Treesearch

Peter J. Ince; Henry Spelter

2006-01-01

The FTM-West (“fuel treatment market” model for U.S. West) is a dynamic partial market equilibrium model of regional softwood timber and wood product markets, designed to project future market impacts of expanded fuel treatment programs that remove trees to reduce fire hazard on forestlands in the U.S. West. The model solves sequentially the annual equilibria in wood...

Doit-On Secher Avant Stockage Les Plaquettes D`Arbres Entiers Destinees Au Chauffage

Treesearch

E. L. Springer

1980-01-01

Whole-tree chips deteriorate more rapidly than do clean, debarked chips and present a greater hazard for spontaneous ignition when stored in outdoor piles. To prevent ignition, the chips can be stored for only short periods of time and the frequent rotation of the storage piles results in high handling costs. Drying the chips prior to storage will prevent deterioration...

Mechanical thinning impacts on runoff, infiltration, and sediment yield following fuel reduction treatments in southwestern dry mixed conifer forest

Treesearch

D.S. Cram; T.T. Baker; A.G. Fernald; A. Madrid; B. Rummer

2007-01-01

Increasing densities of small diameter trees have changed ecological processes and negatively impacted conservation of soil and water resources in western forests. Thinning treatments are commonplace to reduce stem density and potential fire hazard. We evaluated the impacts of using a specialized heavy piece of equipment to reduce he1 loads on intermediate and steep...

A generalized model for stability of trees under impact conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dattola, Giuseppe; Crosta, Giovanni; Castellanza, Riccardo; di Prisco, Claudio; Canepa, Davide

2016-04-01

Stability of trees to external actions involve the combined effects of stem and tree root systems. A block impacting on the stem or an applied force pulling the stem can cause a tree instability involving stem bending or failure and tree root rotation. So different contributions are involved in the stability of the system. The rockfalls are common natural phenomena that can be unpredictable in terms of frequency and magnitude characteristics, and this makes difficult the estimate of potential hazard and risk for human lives and activities. In mountain areas a natural form of protection from rockfalls is provided by forest growing. The difficulties in the assessment of the real capability of this natural barrier by means of models is an open problem. Nevertheless, a large amount of experimental data are now available which provides support for the development of advanced theoretical framework and corresponding models. The aim of this contribution consists in presenting a model developed to predict the behavior of trees during a block impact. This model describes the tree stem by means of a linear elastic beam system consisting of two beams connected in series and with an equivalent geometry. The tree root system is described via an equivalent foundation, whose behavior is modelled through an elasto-plastic macro-element model. In order to calibrate the model parameters, simulations reproducing a series of winching tests, are performed. These numerical simulations confirm the capability of the model to predict the mechanical behavior of the stem-root system in terms of displacement vs force curves. Finally, numerical simulations of the impact of a boulder with a tree stem are carried out. These simulations, done under dynamic regime and with the model parameters obtained from the previous set of simulations, confirm the capability of the model to reproduce the effects on the stem-roots system generated by impulsive loads.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariniere, J.; Beauval, C.; Yepes, H. A.; Laurence, A.; Nocquet, J. M.; Alvarado, A. P.; Baize, S.; Aguilar, J.; Singaucho, J. C.; Jomard, H.

2017-12-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard study is led for Ecuador, a country facing a high seismic hazard, both from megathrust subduction earthquakes and shallow crustal moderate to large earthquakes. Building on the knowledge produced in the last years in historical seismicity, earthquake catalogs, active tectonics, geodynamics, and geodesy, several alternative earthquake recurrence models are developed. An area source model is first proposed, based on the seismogenic crustal and inslab sources defined in Yepes et al. (2016). A slightly different segmentation is proposed for the subduction interface, with respect to Yepes et al. (2016). Three earthquake catalogs are used to account for the numerous uncertainties in the modeling of frequency-magnitude distributions. The hazard maps obtained highlight several source zones enclosing fault systems that exhibit low seismic activity, not representative of the geological and/or geodetical slip rates. Consequently, a fault model is derived, including faults with an earthquake recurrence model inferred from geological and/or geodetical slip rate estimates. The geodetical slip rates on the set of simplified faults are estimated from a GPS horizontal velocity field (Nocquet et al. 2014). Assumptions on the aseismic component of the deformation are required. Combining these alternative earthquake models in a logic tree, and using a set of selected ground-motion prediction equations adapted to Ecuador's different tectonic contexts, a mean hazard map is obtained. Hazard maps corresponding to the percentiles 16 and 84% are also derived, highlighting the zones where uncertainties on the hazard are highest.

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2016-04-01

Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

Phytoextraction of potentially toxic elements by six tree species growing on hazardous mining sludge.

PubMed

Mleczek, Mirosław; Goliński, Piotr; Krzesłowska, Magdalena; Gąsecka, Monika; Magdziak, Zuzanna; Rutkowski, Paweł; Budzyńska, Sylwia; Waliszewska, Bogusława; Kozubik, Tomisław; Karolewski, Zbigniew; Niedzielski, Przemysław

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to compare the phytoextraction abilities of six tree species (Acer platanoides L., Acer pseudoplatanus L., Betula pendula Roth, Quercus robur L., Tilia cordata Miller, Ulmus laevis Pall.), cultivated on mining sludge contaminated with arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), thallium (Tl), and zinc (Zn). All six tree species were able to survive on such an unpromising substrate. However, A. platanoides and T. cordata seedlings grown on the polluted substrate showed significantly lower biomass than control plants (55.5 and 45.6%, respectively). As, Cd, Cu, Pb, and Tl predominantly accumulated in the roots of all the analyzed tree species with the following highest contents: 1616, 268, 2432, 547, and 856 mg kg -1 , respectively. Zn was predominantly localized in shoots with the highest content of 5801 and 5732 mg kg -1 for U. laevis and A. platanoides, respectively. A. platanoides was the most effective in Zn phytoextaction, with a bioconcentration factor (BCF) of 8.99 and a translocation factor (TF) of 1.5. Furthermore, with the exception of A. pseudoplatanus, the analyzed tree species showed a BCF > 1 for Tl, with the highest value for A. platanoides (1.41). However, the TF for this metal was lower than 1 in all the analyzed tree species. A. platanoides showed the highest BCF and a low TF and could, therefore, be a promising species for Tl phytostabilization. In the case of the other analyzed tree species, their potential for effective phytoextraction was markedly lower. Further studies on the use of A. platanoides in phytoremediation would be worth conducting.

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, A.D.; Mueller, C.S.; Barnhard, T.P.; Leyendecker, E.V.; Wesson, R.L.; Harmsen, S.C.; Klein, F.W.; Perkins, D.M.; Dickman, N.C.; Hanson, S.L.; Hopper, M.G.

2000-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council arid published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia (SE Spain): analysis of source contribution to hazard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Mayordomo, J.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Benito, B.

2007-10-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Province of Murcia in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations [SA( T)] is presented in this paper. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for PGA making use of intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard is here calculated in terms of magnitude and using European spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered the most important faults in the region as specific seismic sources, and also comprehensively reviewed the earthquake catalogue. Hazard calculations are performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology using a logic tree, which accounts for three different seismic source zonings and three different ground-motion models. Hazard maps in terms of PGA and SA(0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 s) and coefficient of variation (COV) for the 475-year return period are shown. Subsequent analysis is focused on three sites of the province, namely, the cities of Murcia, Lorca and Cartagena, which are important industrial and tourism centres. Results at these sites have been analysed to evaluate the influence of the different input options. The most important factor affecting the results is the choice of the attenuation relationship, whereas the influence of the selected seismic source zonings appears strongly site dependant. Finally, we have performed an analysis of source contribution to hazard at each of these cities to provide preliminary guidance in devising specific risk scenarios. We have found that local source zones control the hazard for PGA and SA( T ≤ 1.0 s), although contribution from specific fault sources and long-distance north Algerian sources becomes significant from SA(0.5 s) onwards.

Unusual July 10, 1996, rock fall at Happy Isles, Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, G.F.; Snyder, J.B.; Waitt, R.B.; Morrissey, M.M.; Uhrhammer, R.A.; Harp, E.L.; Norris, R.D.; Bursik, M.I.; Finewood, L.G.

2000-01-01

Effects of the July 10, 1996, rock fall at Happy Isles in Yosemite National Park, California, were unusual compared to most rock falls. Two main rock masses fell about 14 s apart from a 665-m-high cliff southeast of Glacier Point onto a talus slope above Happy Isles in the eastern part of Yosemite Valley. The two impacts were recorded by seismographs as much as 200 km away. Although the impact area of the rock falls was not particularly large, the falls generated an airblast and an abrasive dense sandy cloud that devastated a larger area downslope of the impact sites toward the Happy Isles Nature Center. Immediately downslope of the impacts, the airblast had velocities exceeding 110 m/s and toppled or snapped about 1000 trees. Even at distances of 0.5 km from impact, wind velocities snapped or toppled large trees, causing one fatality and several serious injuries beyond the Happy Isles Nature Center. A dense sandy cloud trailed the airblast and abraded fallen trunks and trees left standing. The Happy Isles rock fall is one of the few known worldwide to have generated an airblast and abrasive dense sandy cloud. The relatively high velocity of the rock fall at impact, estimated to be 110-120 m/s, influenced the severity and areal extent of the airblast at Happy Isles. Specific geologic and topographic conditions, typical of steep glaciated valleys and mountainous terrain, contributed to the rock-fall release and determined its travel path, resulting in a high velocity at impact that generated the devastating airblast and sandy cloud. The unusual effects of this rock fall emphasize the importance of considering collateral geologic hazards, such as airblasts from rock falls, in hazard assessment and planning development of mountainous areas.

Long-term dead wood changes in a Sierra Nevada mixed conifer forest: habitat and fire hazard implications

Treesearch

Eric E. Knapp

2015-01-01

Dead trees play an important role in forests, with snags and coarse woody debris (CWD) used by many bird and mammal species for nesting, resting, or foraging. However, too much dead wood can also contribute to extreme fire behavior. This tension between dead wood as habitat and dead wood as fuel has raised questions about appropriate quantities in fire-dependent...

Short-term impact of post-fire salvage logging on regeneration, hazardous fuel accumulation, and understorey development in ponderosa pine forest of the Black Hills, SD, USA

Treesearch

Tara L Keyser; Fredrick W Smith; Wayne D. Shepperd

2009-01-01

We examined the impacts of post-fire salvage logging on regeneration, fuel accumulation, and understorey vegetation and assessed whether the effects of salvage logging differed between stands burned under moderate and high fire severity following the 2000 Jasper Fire in the Black Hills. In unsalvaged sites, fire-related tree mortality...

The palm wine trade: occupational and health hazards.

PubMed

Mbuagbaw, L; Noorduyn, S G

2012-10-01

The palm wine trade is an important economic activity for many tropical rural areas worldwide. In West Africa, palm wine holds high sociocultural and traditional values. Wine tappers often climb very tall trees with rudimentary equipment to harvest palm sap and risk severe injuries in the event of a fall. Furthermore, the wine quickly ferments beyond the desired taste and alcohol content, reducing the market power of these tappers. Therefore, to maximize benefits or to enhance shelf life, a variety of components are added to the palm tree sap, introducing the possibility of deadly contaminants. This paper highlights the public health implications of uncontrolled palm wine production and the relative neglect of the wine tapper. We draw from the limited published literature and use Cameroon as a case study. The palm wine trade can be more productive and safe if tappers work in cooperatives to improve their market power. Public health authorities need to monitor the quality of this cheap and common source of alcohol and enact regulations to protect wine tappers from the current level of occupational hazards. There are varying levels of progress to control quality and ensure safety in different parts of the world. Legislation and collaboration with traditional structures may offer a framework for change.

The effect of leaf beetle herbivory on the fire behaviour of tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima Lebed.)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drus, Gail M.; Dudley, Tom L.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Matchett, John R.

2012-01-01

The non-native tree, Tamarix spp. has invaded desert riparian ecosystems in the south-western United States. Fire hazard has increased, as typically fire-resistant native vegetation is replaced by Tamarix. The tamarisk leaf beetle, Diorhabda carinulata Desbrochers, introduced for biological control, may affect fire behaviour by converting hydrated live Tamarix leaves and twigs into desiccated and dead fuels. This potentially increases fire hazard in the short term before native vegetation can be re-established. This study investigates how fire behaviour is altered in Tamarix fuels desiccated by Diorhabda herbivory at a Great Basin site, and by herbivory simulated by foliar herbicide at a Mojave Desert site. It also evaluates the influence of litter depth on fire intensity. Fire behaviour was measured with a fire intensity index that integrates temperature and duration (degree-minutes above 70°C), and with maximum temperature, duration, flame lengths, rates of spread and vegetation removal. Maximum temperature, flame length and rate of spread were enhanced by foliar desiccation of Tamarix at both sites. At only the Mojave site, there was a trend for desiccated trees to burn with greater fire intensity. At both sites, fire behaviour parameters were influenced to a greater degree by litter depth, vegetation density and drier and windier conditions than by foliar desiccation.

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Magnetic biomonitoring of roadside tree leaves: identification of spatial and temporal variations in vehicle-derived particulates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matzka, J.; Maher, B. A.

We report here the novel use of rapid and non-destructive magnetic measurements to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of urban dust loadings on leaves of roadside trees. More than 600 leaves were collected from birch trees and their remanent magnetization (IRM 300 mT ) determined and normalized for the leaf area. The results show that this normalised 2-D magnetization is dominantly controlled by the tree's distance to the road. The magnetic analyses enabled detailed mapping of the spatial and temporal variations of vehicle-derived particulates. Higher 2D-magnetizations, indicating higher magnetic dust loadings, were measured for leaves collected adjacent to uphill road sections than for those next to downhill sections. This suggests that vehicle emissions, rather than friction wear or resuspended road dust, are the major source of the roadside magnetic particles. Additional magnetic analyses suggest that the particle size of the magnetic grains dominantly falls in the range classified for airborne particulate matter as PM 2.5 (<2.5 μm), a particle size hazardous to health due to its capacity to be respired deeply into the lungs. Thus, the leaf magnetizations relate directly to release into the atmosphere of harmful vehicle combustion products. For leaves from individual trees, magnetization values fall significantly from high values proximal to the roadside to lower values at the distal side, confirming the ability of trees to reduce aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere. Magnetic analysis of leaves over days and weeks shows that rainfall produces a net decrease in the leaf magnetic loadings.

Multi-hazard risk assessment applied to hydraulic fracturing operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Aristizabal, Alexander; Gasparini, Paolo; Russo, Raffaella; Capuano, Paolo

2017-04-01

Without exception, the exploitation of any energy resource produces impacts and intrinsically bears risks. Therefore, to make sound decisions about future energy resource exploitation, it is important to clearly understand the potential environmental impacts in the full life-cycle of an energy development project, distinguishing between the specific impacts intrinsically related to exploiting a given energy resource and those shared with the exploitation of other energy resources. Technological advances as directional drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to a rapid expansion of unconventional resources (UR) exploration and exploitation; as a consequence, both public health and environmental concerns have risen. The main objective of a multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR is to assess the rate (or the likelihood) of occurrence of incidents and the relative potential impacts on surrounding environment, considering different hazards and their interactions. Such analyses have to be performed considering the different stages of development of a project; however, the discussion in this paper is mainly focused on the analysis applied to the hydraulic fracturing stage of a UR development project. The multi-hazard risk assessment applied to the development of UR poses a number of challenges, making of this one a particularly complex problem. First, a number of external hazards might be considered as potential triggering mechanisms. Such hazards can be either of natural origin or anthropogenic events caused by the same industrial activities. Second, failures might propagate through the industrial elements, leading to complex scenarios according to the layout of the industrial site. Third, there is a number of potential risk receptors, ranging from environmental elements (as the air, soil, surface water, or groundwater) to local communities and ecosystems. The multi-hazard risk approach for this problem is set by considering multiple hazards (and their possible interactions) as possible sources of system's perturbation that might drive to the development of an incidental event. Given the complexity of the problem, we adopt a multi-level approach: first, perform a qualitative analysis oriented to the identification of a wide range of possible scenarios; this process is based on a review of potential impacts in different risk receptors reported in literature, which is condensed in a number of causal diagrams created for different stages of a UR development project. Second, the most important scenarios for quantitative multi-hazard risk analyses are selected for further quantification. This selection is based on the identification of major risks, i.e., those related with the occurrence of low probability/high impact extreme events. The general framework for the quantitative multi-hazard risk analysis is represented using a so-called bow-tie structure. It is composed of a fault tree on the left hand side of the graphic plot, identifying the possible events causing the critical (or top) event, and an event tree on the right-hand side showing the possible consequences of the critical event. This work was supported under SHEER: "Shale Gas Exploration and Exploitation Induced Risks" project n.640896, funded from Horizon 2020 - R&I Framework Programme, call H2020-LCE-2014-1

Increased concentrations of potassium in heartwood of trees in response to groundwater contamination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vroblesky, Don A.; Yanosky, Thomas M.; Siegel, Frederic R.

1992-03-01

The wood of tuliptrees ( Liriodendron tulipifera L.) growing above groundwater contamination from a hazardous-waste landfill in Maryland contained elevated concentrations of potassium (K). The groundwater contamination also contained elevated concentrations of dissolved K, as well as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chloride (Cl), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), and organic solvents. The dissolved K is derived from disposed smoke munitions. The excess K in the tuliptrees is concentrated in the heartwood, the part of the xylem most depleted in K in trees growing outside of the contamination. These data show that the uptake and translocation of K by tuliptrees can be strongly influenced by the availability of K in groundwater contamination and suggest the utility of this species as an areal indicator of groundwater contamination.

Deep Borehole Emplacement Mode Hazard Analysis Revision 0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sevougian, S. David

This letter report outlines a methodology and provides resource information for the Deep Borehole Emplacement Mode Hazard Analysis (DBEMHA). The main purpose is identify the accident hazards and accident event sequences associated with the two emplacement mode options (wireline or drillstring), to outline a methodology for computing accident probabilities and frequencies, and to point to available databases on the nature and frequency of accidents typically associated with standard borehole drilling and nuclear handling operations. Risk mitigation and prevention measures, which have been incorporated into the two emplacement designs (see Cochran and Hardin 2015), are also discussed. A key intent ofmore » this report is to provide background information to brief subject matter experts involved in the Emplacement Mode Design Study. [Note: Revision 0 of this report is concentrated more on the wireline emplacement mode. It is expected that Revision 1 will contain further development of the preliminary fault and event trees for the drill string emplacement mode.]« less

Combustion of a Pb(II)-loaded olive tree pruning used as biosorbent.

PubMed

Ronda, A; Della Zassa, M; Martín-Lara, M A; Calero, M; Canu, P

2016-05-05

The olive tree pruning is a specific agroindustrial waste that can be successfully used as adsorbent, to remove Pb(II) from contaminated wastewater. Its final incineration has been studied in a thermobalance and in a laboratory flow reactor. The study aims at evaluating the fate of Pb during combustion, at two different scales of investigation. The flow reactor can treat samples approximately 10(2) larger than the conventional TGA. A detailed characterization of the raw and Pb(II)-loaded waste, before and after combustion is presented, including analysis of gas and solids products. The Pb(II)-loaded olive tree pruning has been prepared by a previous biosorption step in a lead solution, reaching a concentration of lead of 2.3 wt%. Several characterizations of the ashes and the mass balances proved that after the combustion, all the lead presents in the waste remained in ashes. Combustion in a flow reactor produced results consistent with those obtained in the thermobalance. It is thus confirmed that the combustion of Pb(II)-loaded olive tree pruning is a viable option to use it after the biosorption process. The Pb contained in the solid remained in the ashes, preventing possible environmental hazards. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-01

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationships for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.

Seismic Hazard Assessment of Tehran Based on Arias Intensity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Amiri, G. Ghodrati; Mahmoodi, H.; Amrei, S. A. Razavian

2008-07-08

In this paper probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Tehran for Arias intensity parameter is done. Tehran is capital and most populated city of Iran. From economical, political and social points of view, Tehran is the most significant city of Iran. Since in the previous centuries, catastrophic earthquakes have occurred in Tehran and its vicinity, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of this city for Arias intensity parameter is useful. Iso-intensity contour lines maps of Tehran on the basis of different attenuation relationships for different earthquake periods are plotted. Maps of iso-intensity points in the Tehran region are presented using proportional attenuation relationshipsmore » for rock and soil beds for 2 hazard levels of 10% and 2% in 50 years. Seismicity parameters on the basis of historical and instrumental earthquakes for a time period that initiate from 4th century BC and ends in the present time are calculated using Tow methods. For calculation of seismicity parameters, the earthquake catalogue with a radius of 200 km around Tehran has been used. SEISRISKIII Software has been employed. Effects of different parameters such as seismicity parameters, length of fault rupture relationships and attenuation relationships are considered using Logic Tree.« less

A spatio-temporal model for probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Tehran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashemi, Mahdi; Alesheikh, Ali Asghar; Zolfaghari, Mohammad Reza

2013-08-01

A precondition for all disaster management steps, building damage prediction, and construction code developments is a hazard assessment that shows the exceedance probabilities of different ground motion levels at a site considering different near- and far-field earthquake sources. The seismic sources are usually categorized as time-independent area sources and time-dependent fault sources. While the earlier incorporates the small and medium events, the later takes into account only the large characteristic earthquakes. In this article, a probabilistic approach is proposed to aggregate the effects of time-dependent and time-independent sources on seismic hazard. The methodology is then applied to generate three probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Tehran for 10%, 5%, and 2% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The results indicate an increase in peak ground acceleration (PGA) values toward the southeastern part of the study area and the PGA variations are mostly controlled by the shear wave velocities across the city. In addition, the implementation of the methodology takes advantage of GIS capabilities especially raster-based analyses and representations. During the estimation of the PGA exceedance rates, the emphasis has been placed on incorporating the effects of different attenuation relationships and seismic source models by using a logic tree.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Himalayan-Tibetan Region from Historical and Instrumental Earthquake Catalogs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, M. Moklesur; Bai, Ling; Khan, Nangyal Ghani; Li, Guohui

2018-02-01

The Himalayan-Tibetan region has a long history of devastating earthquakes with wide-spread casualties and socio-economic damages. Here, we conduct the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by incorporating the incomplete historical earthquake records along with the instrumental earthquake catalogs for the Himalayan-Tibetan region. Historical earthquake records back to more than 1000 years ago and an updated, homogenized and declustered instrumental earthquake catalog since 1906 are utilized. The essential seismicity parameters, namely, the mean seismicity rate γ, the Gutenberg-Richter b value, and the maximum expected magnitude M max are estimated using the maximum likelihood algorithm assuming the incompleteness of the catalog. To compute the hazard value, three seismogenic source models (smoothed gridded, linear, and areal sources) and two sets of ground motion prediction equations are combined by means of a logic tree on accounting the epistemic uncertainties. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.2 and 1.0 s are predicted for 2 and 10% probabilities of exceedance over 50 years assuming bedrock condition. The resulting PGA and SA maps show a significant spatio-temporal variation in the hazard values. In general, hazard value is found to be much higher than the previous studies for regions, where great earthquakes have actually occurred. The use of the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs in combination of multiple seismogenic source models provides better seismic hazard constraints for the Himalayan-Tibetan region.

Influence of Crown Biomass Estimators and Distribution on Canopy Fuel Characteristics in Ponderosa Pine Stands of the Black Hills

Treesearch

Tara Keyser; Frederick Smith

2009-01-01

Two determinants of crown fire hazard are canopy bulk density (CBD) and canopy base height (CBH). The Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS) is a model that predicts CBD and CBH. Currently, FFE-FVS accounts for neither geographic variation in tree allometries nor the nonuniform distribution of crown mass when one is estimating CBH and CBD...

Twin Screw Extruder Production of MTTP Decoy Flares SERDP WP-1240

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-12-01

5 3. Carnauba Wax ( wax from palm tree exudate, a common ingredient in high quality car polish) Hazards of the remaining formulations were...1. Microsere 5866, a microcrystalline wax derived from refining petroleum 2. Elvax 250, poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (hot glue ingredient...5866 Poor performance when 1-gm sample ignited Elvax 250 Poor performance when 1-gm sample ignited Carnuba Wax Poor performance when 1-gm sample

Annual cycle of magmatic CO2 in a tree-kill soil at Mammoth Mountain, California: implications for soil acidification

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, K.A.; Gerlach, T.M.

1998-01-01

Time-series sensor data reveal significant short-term and seasonal variations of magmatic CO2 in soil over a 12 month period in 1995-1996 at the largest tree-kill site on Mammoth Mountain, central-eastern California. Short-term variations leading to ground-level soil CO2 concentrations hazardous and lethal to humans were triggered by shallow faulting in the absence of increased seismicity or intrusion, consistent with tapping a reservoir of accumulated CO2, rather than direct magma degassing. Hydrologic processes closely modulated seasonal variations in CO2 concentrations, which rose to 65%-100% in soil gas under winter snowpack and plunged more than 25% in just days as the CO2 dissolved in spring snowmelt. The high efflux of CO2 through the tree-kill soils acts as an open-system CO2 buffer causing infiltration of waters with pH values commonly of < 4.2, acid loading of up to 7 keqH+.ha-1.yr-1, mobilization of toxic Al3+, and long-term decline of soil fertility.

2017 One‐year seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petersen, Mark D.; Mueller, Charles; Moschetti, Morgan P.; Hoover, Susan M.; Shumway, Allison; McNamara, Daniel E.; Williams, Robert; Llenos, Andrea L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Rubinstein, Justin L.; McGarr, Arthur F.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2017-01-01

We produce a one‐year 2017 seismic‐hazard forecast for the central and eastern United States from induced and natural earthquakes that updates the 2016 one‐year forecast; this map is intended to provide information to the public and to facilitate the development of induced seismicity forecasting models, methods, and data. The 2017 hazard model applies the same methodology and input logic tree as the 2016 forecast, but with an updated earthquake catalog. We also evaluate the 2016 seismic‐hazard forecast to improve future assessments. The 2016 forecast indicated high seismic hazard (greater than 1% probability of potentially damaging ground shaking in one year) in five focus areas: Oklahoma–Kansas, the Raton basin (Colorado/New Mexico border), north Texas, north Arkansas, and the New Madrid Seismic Zone. During 2016, several damaging induced earthquakes occurred in Oklahoma within the highest hazard region of the 2016 forecast; all of the 21 moment magnitude (M) ≥4 and 3 M≥5 earthquakes occurred within the highest hazard area in the 2016 forecast. Outside the Oklahoma–Kansas focus area, two earthquakes with M≥4 occurred near Trinidad, Colorado (in the Raton basin focus area), but no earthquakes with M≥2.7 were observed in the north Texas or north Arkansas focus areas. Several observations of damaging ground‐shaking levels were also recorded in the highest hazard region of Oklahoma. The 2017 forecasted seismic rates are lower in regions of induced activity due to lower rates of earthquakes in 2016 compared with 2015, which may be related to decreased wastewater injection caused by regulatory actions or by a decrease in unconventional oil and gas production. Nevertheless, the 2017 forecasted hazard is still significantly elevated in Oklahoma compared to the hazard calculated from seismicity before 2009.

A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horspool, N.; Pranantyo, I.; Griffin, J.; Latief, H.; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, W.; Cipta, A.; Bustaman, B.; Anugrah, S. D.; Thio, H. K.

2014-05-01

Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Pollution ecology of breeding great blue herons in the Columbia Basin, Oregon and Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blus, L.J.; Henny, C.J.; Kaiser, T.E.

1980-01-01

Approximately 40 pairs of Great Blue Herons (Ardea herodias) formerly nested in trees on or near Blalock Island about 95 km downstream from Richland, Washington, in the Columbia River (Nehls 1972 ). In conjunction with construction of the John Day Lock and Dam and before creating Lake Umatilla in 1968, large trees along the shoreline, including those in the heronry on Blalock Island, were removed except for about six cottonwood trees (Populus sp.) that were left standing near the south bank of the river (David Lenhart, pers. comm.). As a mitigation procedure, the Umatilla National Wildlife Refuge (Umatilla) was established in 1967. The herons subsequently established a secondary heronry in the six cottonwoods; 20 pairs were present in 1971 (Nehls 1972). The inundated trees died and deteriorated; only two trees with eight nests remained in 1976 (Henny and Kurtz 1978), and we found just two nests in one tree in 1978. With a decrease in traditional nesting sites, the birds nested on islands in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), on channel markers in the Columbia River, and on nesting platforms constructed for Canada Geese (Branta canadensis). The purpose of this paper is to describe the breeding biology of Great Blue Herons at Umatilla and the McNary Recreation Area (McNary) in 1978 and the relationship of organochlorine residues in eggs to eggshell thickness and reproductive success. The primary reason for conducting this study was to determine if the heptachlor seed treatment that was severely affecting Canada Geese at Umatilla (Blus et al. 1979) was also a hazard to Great Blue Herons. At the same time we also investigated possible effects of other organochlorines on the herons.

Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Caprio, Anthony C.; Stephenson, Nathan L.; Das, Adrian J.

2016-01-01

Prescribed fire is a primary tool used to restore western forests following more than a century of fire exclusion, reducing fire hazard by removing dead and live fuels (small trees and shrubs).  It is commonly assumed that the reduced forest density following prescribed fire also reduces competition for resources among the remaining trees, so that the remaining trees are more resistant (more likely to survive) in the face of additional stressors, such as drought.  Yet this proposition remains largely untested, so that managers do not have the basic information to evaluate whether prescribed fire may help forests adapt to a future of more frequent and severe drought.During the third year of drought, in 2014, we surveyed 9950 trees in 38 burned and 18 unburned mixed conifer forest plots at low elevation (<2100 m a.s.l.) in Kings Canyon, Sequoia, and Yosemite national parks in California, USA.  Fire had occurred in the burned plots from 6 yr to 28 yr before our survey.  After accounting for differences in individual tree diameter, common conifer species found in the burned plots had significantly reduced probability of mortality compared to unburned plots during the drought.  Stand density (stems ha-1) was significantly lower in burned versus unburned sites, supporting the idea that reduced competition may be responsible for the differential drought mortality response.  At the time of writing, we are not sure if burned stands will maintain lower tree mortality probabilities in the face of the continued, severe drought of 2015.  Future work should aim to better identify drought response mechanisms and how these may vary across other forest types and regions, particularly in other areas experiencing severe drought in the Sierra Nevada and on the Colorado Plateau.

Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

2013-05-01

Popocatépetl volcano is one of the most active in Latin America. During its last cycle of activity, beginning at the end of 1994, more than 40 episodes of dome construction and destruction have occurred inside the summit crater. Most of these episodes finished with eruptions of VEI 1-2. Eruptions of higher intensity were also registered in 1997, 2001 and 2009, of VEI≥3, which produced eruptive columns up to 8 km high and abundant and frequent ash falls on the villages at the eastern sector of the volcano. The January 22nd 2001 eruption also produced pyroclastic flows that followed several streams on the volcanic cone, reaching 4 to 6 km, and transforming to mudflows with ranges up to 15 km. The capital, Mexico City, is within the radius of 80 km from Popocatépetl volcano and can be affected by ash fall during the first months of the rainy season (May to July). Other important cities, such as Puebla and Atlixco, are located 15 to 30 km from the crater. Several villages of the states of México, Puebla and Morelos, which have a total population of 40,000 people, are inside the radius of 12 to 15 km, where the impacts of any of the products of an eruption, including pyroclastic flows, are possible. This high exposure of people and infrastructure around Popocatépetl volcano emphasizes the need of tools for early warning and the development of preventive actions to protect the population from volcanic phenomena. The diagnosis of the volcanic activity, based on the information provided by the monitoring systems, and the prognosis of the evolution of the volcano in the short-term is made by the Scientific Advisory Committee, formed by volcanologists of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and by CENAPRED staff. From this prognosis, the alert level for the people is determined and it is spread by the code of the traffic light of volcanic alert. A volcanic event tree was constructed with the advisory of the scientific committee in the recent seismic-eruptive crisis of April-May 2012, in order to identify the most probable processes in which this unrest could have developed and to contribute to the diagnosis task. In this research, we propose a comparison between the processes identified in this preliminary volcanic event tree and another elaborated using a Hazard Assessment Event Tree probability tool (HASSET), built on a bayesian event tree structure, using mainly the information of the known eruptive history of Popocatépetl. The HASSET method is based on Bayesian Inference and is used to assess volcanic hazard of future eruptive scenarios, by evaluating the most relevant sources of uncertainty that play a role in estimating the future probability of occurrence of a specific volcanic event. The final goal is to find the most useful tools to make the diagnosis and prognosis of the Popocatépetl volcanic activity, integrating the known eruptive history of the volcano, the experience of the scientific committee and the information provided by the monitoring systems, in an interactive and user-friendly way.

Increased concentrations of potassium in heartwood of trees in response to groundwater contamination

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vroblesky, D.A.; Yanosky, T.M.; Siegel, F.R.

1992-01-01

The wood of tuliptrees (Liriodendron tulipifera L.) growing above groundwater contamination from a hazardous-waste landfill in Maryland contained elevated concentrations of potassium (K). The groundwater contamination also contained elevated concentrations of dissolved K, as well as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chloride (Cl), iron (Fe), manganese (Mn), zinc (Zn), and organic solvents. The dissolved K is derived from disposed smoke munitions. The excess K in the tuliptrees is concentrated in the heartwood, the part of the xylem most depleted in K in trees growing outside of the contamination. These data show that the uptake and translocation of K by tuliptrees can be strongly influenced by the availability of K in groundwater contamination and suggest the utility of this species as an areal indicator of groundwater contamination. ?? 1992 Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Commercial Jet Transport Crashworthiness

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-04-01

airports is another area for improved safety. The avoidance of collisions between aircraft and with ground vehicles should be attainable. Reduction of...hazards such as drainage ditches, poles, trees, columns, outbuildings, and birds from airports is a matter of concern. In addition the short/overrun areas...071191 DCC DENVER X 122 17 0 LOG FIRE YES 011961 DC8 JFK X 106 4 ? TO FIRE PAR 061561 707 LISBON 103 0 2 LDG FIRE YES 122161 CMT ANKARA X 34 27 6 CLI

Considering the ranges of uncertainties in the New Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Germany - Version 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunthal, Gottfried; Stromeyer, Dietrich; Bosse, Christian; Cotton, Fabrice; Bindi, Dino

2017-04-01

The seismic load parameters for the upcoming National Annex to the Eurocode 8 result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering . This 2016 version of hazard assessment for Germany as target area was based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters into the approach and the provision of a rational framework for facilitating the uncertainties in a transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model represents significant improvements; i.e. it is based on updated and extended databases, comprehensive ranges of models, robust methods and a selection of a set of ground motion prediction equations of their latest generation. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. In particular, seismic load parameters were calculated for rock conditions with a vS30 of 800 ms-1 for three hazard levels (10%, 5% and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) in form of, e.g., uniform hazard spectra (UHS) based on 19 sprectral periods in the range of 0.01 - 3s, seismic hazard maps for spectral response accelerations for different spectral periods or for macroseismic intensities. The developed hazard model consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed to capture epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities. The computation scheme enables the sound calculation of the mean and any quantile of required seismic load parameters. Mean, median and 84th percentiles of load parameters were provided together with the full calculation model to clearly illustrate the uncertainties of such a probabilistic assessment for a region of a low-to-moderate level of seismicity. The regional variations of these uncertainties (e.g. ratios between the mean and median hazard estimations) were analyzed and discussed.

Developing risk hypotheses and selecting species for assessing non-target impacts of GM trees with novel traits: the case of altered-lignin pine trees.

PubMed

Malone, Louise A; Todd, Jacqui H; Burgess, Elisabeth P J; Walter, Christian; Wagner, Armin; Barratt, Barbara I P

2010-01-01

A procedure is presented for developing environmental risk hypotheses associated with the deployment of forest trees genetically modified to have altered wood properties and for selecting non-target species to test these hypotheses. Altered-lignin Pinus radiata trees intended for use in New Zealand are used as a hypothetical case study to illustrate our approach. Firstly, environmental management goals (such as wood production, flood control or preservation of biodiversity) were identified and linked to the forest attributes they require. Necessary conditions for each attribute were listed and appropriate assessment endpoints for them developed. For example, biological control of pests may be one condition necessary for a forest to have healthy trees, and the diversity and abundance of natural enemy species in the forest could be an appropriate assessment endpoint for measuring this condition. A conceptual model describing the relationships between an altered-lignin GM pine tree and potentially affected invertebrates and micro-organisms in a plantation forest was used to develop a set of risk hypotheses describing how the GM trees might affect each assessment endpoint. Because purified lignin does not represent the properties it imparts to wood, maximum hazard dose tests with non-target organisms, as are used to inform toxin risk assessment, cannot be conducted. Alternative experiments, based on current knowledge of the responses of organisms to lignin, must be designed. A screening method was adapted and applied to a database of invertebrate species known to inhabit New Zealand pine forests to identify and prioritize non-target invertebrate species that could be used as experimental subjects for examining these hypotheses. The screening model and its application are presented, along with a set of recommendations for pre-release tests with GM pines and potentially affected invertebrates and micro-organisms. © ISBR, EDP Sciences, 2011.

Quantifying probabilities of eruptions at Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brancato, Alfonso

2010-05-01

One of the major goals of modern volcanology is to set up sound risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard must be managed with reliable estimates of quantitative long- and short-term eruption forecasting, but the large number of observables involved in a volcanic process suggests that a probabilistic approach could be a suitable tool in forecasting. The aim of this work is to quantify probabilistic estimate of the vent location for a suitable lava flow hazard assessment at Mt. Etna volcano, through the application of the code named BET (Marzocchi et al., 2004, 2008). The BET_EF model is based on the event tree philosophy assessed by Newhall and Hoblitt (2002), further developing the concept of vent location, epistemic uncertainties, and a fuzzy approach for monitoring measurements. A Bayesian event tree is a specialized branching graphical representation of events in which individual branches are alternative steps from a general prior event, and evolving into increasingly specific subsequent states. Then, the event tree attempts to graphically display all relevant possible outcomes of volcanic unrest in progressively higher levels of detail. The procedure is set to estimate an a priori probability distribution based upon theoretical knowledge, to accommodate it by using past data, and to modify it further by using current monitoring data. For the long-term forecasting, an a priori model, dealing with the present tectonic and volcanic structure of the Mt. Etna, is considered. The model is mainly based on past vent locations and fracture location datasets (XX century of eruptive history of the volcano). Considering the variation of the information through time, and their relationship with the structural setting of the volcano, datasets we are also able to define an a posteriori probability map for next vent opening. For short-term forecasting vent opening hazard assessment, the monitoring has a leading role, primarily based on seismological and volcanological data, integrated with strain, geochemical, gravimetric and magnetic parameters. In the code, is necessary to fix an appropriate forecasting time window. On open-conduit volcanoes as Mt. Etna, a forecast time window of a month (as fixed in other applications worldwide) seems unduly long, because variations of the state of the volcano (significant variation of a specific monitoring parameter could occur in time scale shorter than the forecasting time window) are expected with shorter time scale (hour, day or week). This leads to set a week as forecasting time window, coherently with the number of weeks in which an unrest has been experienced. The short-term vent opening hazard assessment will be estimated during an unrest phase; the testing case (2001 July eruption) will include all the monitoring parameters collected at Mt. Etna during the six months preceding the eruption. The monitoring role has been assessed eliciting more than 50 parameters, including seismic activity, ground deformation, geochemistry, gravity, magnetism, and distributed inside the first three nodes of the procedure. Parameter values describe the Mt. Etna volcano activity, being more detailed through the code, particularly in time units. The methodology allows all assumptions and thresholds to be clearly identified and provides a rational means for their revision if new data or information are incoming. References Newhall C.G. and Hoblitt R.P.; 2002: Constructing event trees for volcanic crises, Bull. Volcanol., 64, 3-20, doi: 10.1007/s0044500100173. Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C. and Boschi E.; 2004: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB00315U. Marzocchi W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J.; 2008: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623 - 632, doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y.

The Potential Role of Tree Diversity in Reducing Shallow Landslide Risk.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yuta; Mori, Akira S

2017-05-01

Recently, interest in utilizing ecosystems for disaster risk reduction has increased, even though there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the role of ecosystems in buffering against natural hazards. This ecosystem role can be considered an ecosystem service. Although a strong body of evidence shows that biodiversity enhances ecosystem services, there are only a few studies of the relationship between biodiversity and the role of the ecosystem in reducing the risk of natural disasters. To explore the desired state of an ecosystem for disaster risk reduction we applied the finding that biodiversity enhances ecosystem services to evaluate the role of woody vegetation in reducing the frequency and severity of shallow landslides. Using information related to shallow landslides and woody vegetation in Japan as a case study, we compared the severity of shallow landslides (i.e., landslide volume) with tree species richness. Although we provide no direct evidence that tree species richness reduces shallow landslide volume, we found that the predictability of the model, which evaluated relationships between landslide volume and environmental variables in watersheds throughout the Japanese Archipelago, increased with tree species richness. This finding suggests that biodiversity is likely associated with shallow landslide risk reduction, emphasizing a possible reduction of spatial and temporal uncertainty in the roles of woody vegetation. Our study identifies a need for socioecological systems to build new approaches found on the functionality of such ecosystems.

Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newhall, C.G.; Pallister, John S.

2014-01-01

The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

The use of compost in afforestation of Mediterranean areas: Effects on soil properties and young tree seedlings.

PubMed

Larchevêque, Marie; Ballini, Christine; Korboulewsky, Nathalie; Montès, Nicolas

2006-10-01

In Mediterranean frequently burnt areas, fire and erosion result in the decrease of soil fertility, so afforestation is a major concern. We carried out an in situ experiment of compost amendment to improve survival and growth of planted tree seedlings. One-year-tree seedlings of native species (Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis and Pinus pinea) were planted on a frequently burnt calcareous site. Three rates of fresh co-composted sewage sludge and greenwastes (control without compost, 20 and 40 kg m(-2) of compost) were incorporated into the soil at each seedling stem. Changes of soil properties and tree development were studied during 3 years (2001-2003) and 2 years (2002-2003) respectively. The compost improved survival of Quercus ilex and Pinus pinea seedlings in severe drought conditions, but had no effect on Pinus halepensis. For all species seedling length and radial growth and NPK nutrition were increased for both rates of amendment. Amendment improved soil fertility, but available P concentration increased 13 fold in the neighbouring soil of seedlings amended at the maximal rate compared to control. However, amendment did not significantly increase concentrations of Cd, Cr, Ni and Pb in soils or tree seedlings. It increased Cu and Zn total and available concentrations in soils, while foliar Cu and Zn concentrations in the seedlings remained similar in all plots. Compost can efficiently help afforestation of dry soils with low organic matter content. However, sewage sludge concentrations in P, and to a lesser extent in Cu and Zn, limit rates of application that can be applied without environmental hazard.

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation for the Cuban building code update

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, J.; Llanes-Buron, C.

2013-05-01

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment has been performed in response to a revision and update of the Cuban building code (NC-46-99) for earthquake-resistant building construction. The hazard assessment have been done according to the standard probabilistic approach (Cornell, 1968) and importing the procedures adopted by other nations dealing with the problem of revising and updating theirs national building codes. Problems of earthquake catalogue treatment, attenuation of peak and spectral ground acceleration, as well as seismic source definition have been rigorously analyzed and a logic-tree approach was used to represent the inevitable uncertainties encountered through the whole seismic hazard estimation process. The seismic zonation proposed here, is formed by a map where it is reflected the behaviour of the spectral acceleration values for short (0.2 seconds) and large (1.0 seconds) periods on rock conditions with a 1642 -year return period, which being considered as maximum credible earthquake (ASCE 07-05). In addition, other three design levels are proposed (severe earthquake: with a 808 -year return period, ordinary earthquake: with a 475 -year return period and minimum earthquake: with a 225 -year return period). The seismic zonation proposed here fulfils the international standards (IBC-ICC) as well as the world tendencies in this thematic.

A first hazard analysis of the Harrat Ash Shamah volcanic field, Syria-Jordan Borderline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cagnan, Zehra; Akkar, Sinan; Moghimi, Saed

2017-04-01

The northernmost part of the Saudi Cenozoic Volcanic Fields, the 100,000 km2 Harrat Ash Shamah has hosted some of the most recent volcanic eruptions along the Syria-Jordan borderline. With rapid growth of the cities in this region, exposure to any potential renewed volcanism increased considerably. We present here a first-order probabilistic hazard analysis related to new vent formation and subsequent lava flow from Harrat Ash Shamah. The 733 visible eruption vent sites were utilized to develop a probability density function for new eruption sites using Gaussian kernel smoothing. This revealed a NNW striking zone of high spatial hazard surrounding the cities Amman and Irbid in Jordan. The temporal eruption recurrence rate is estimated to be approximately one vent per 3500 years, but the temporal record of the field is so poorly constrained that the lower and upper bounds for the recurrence interval are 17,700 yrs and 70 yrs, respectively. A Poisson temporal model is employed within the scope of this study. In order to treat the uncertainties associated with the spatio-temporal models as well as size of the area affected by the lava flow, the logic tree approach is adopted. For the Syria-Jordan borderline, the spatial variation of volcanic hazard is computed as well as uncertainty associated with these estimates.

Snakes as hazards: modelling risk by chasing chimpanzees.

PubMed

McGrew, William C

2015-04-01

Snakes are presumed to be hazards to primates, including humans, by the snake detection hypothesis (Isbell in J Hum Evol 51:1-35, 2006; Isbell, The fruit, the tree, and the serpent. Why we see so well, 2009). Quantitative, systematic data to test this idea are lacking for the behavioural ecology of living great apes and human foragers. An alternative proxy is snakes encountered by primatologists seeking, tracking, and observing wild chimpanzees. We present 4 years of such data from Mt. Assirik, Senegal. We encountered 14 species of snakes a total of 142 times. Almost two-thirds of encounters were with venomous snakes. Encounters occurred most often in forest and least often in grassland, and more often in the dry season. The hypothesis seems to be supported, if frequency of encounter reflects selective risk of morbidity or mortality.

A Literature Review - Problem Definition Studies on Selected Toxic Chemicals

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-06-16

2 III. Recommendations and Hazard Analysis 6 IV. Physical and Chemical Properties 8 V. Human Toxicity A. Conditions and Extent of Exposure - 16 B...40 H. Coral 41 I. Phytoplankton and Algae 42 J. Bacteria 44 K. Plants 46 1. Fruit Trees 46 2. Foliage 49 3. Vegetables 51 4. Aquatic Plants 52 j PACE...breathe may result. The lung condition may clear up or death may occur, especially in accidents when children drink and choke on diesel fuel. The

Electrocution by arcing: a nonfatal case study.

PubMed

Solarino, Biagio; Di Vella, Giancarlo

2011-12-01

Accidental electrocution during working activities account for a considerable amount of morbidity and mortality. Workers often misjudge the danger of electric wires or high-tension power cables, thereby exposing themselves to electrocution hazard. This article describes a nonfatal case of injuries by arcing from high-tension power-line cables involving a young farmer who was thrashing an olive tree by means of aluminum ladder. The circumstances surrounding the manner of electrocution and the features of electric injuries are presented and discussed.

Foliar nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium content in trees in environmentally toxic plastic industry area.

PubMed

Sett, Rupnarayan; Soni, Bhawna

2013-04-01

In plants, nitrogen deficiency causes stunted growth and chlorosis or yellowing of the leaves due to decreased levels of chlorophyll, while excess nitrogen uptake may cause dark green overly vigorous foliage which may have increased susceptibility to disease and insect attacks. Phosphorus is an important nutrient in crop production, since many soils in their native state do not have sufficient available phosphorus to maximize crop yield. Potassium deficiency may cause necrosis or interveinal chlorosis. Plastics are synthetic or semi-synthetic moldable organic solids that are organic polymers of high molecular mass, most commonly derived from petrochemicals; these polymers are based on chains of carbon atoms alone or with oxygen, sulfur, or nitrogen. Plastic is a non- biodegradable major toxic pollutant. It pollutes earth and leads to air pollution and water pollution. Merely there is any safe way to dispose the hazardous plastic wastes. The study was targeted to estimate foliar level of NPK content of three plant species, viz. Cassia tora (Herb), Ailanthus excelsa (Tree) and Dalbergia sissoo (Tree) from polluted areas associated to polythene-industries as well as control areas having least pollution, where all the parameters were found to be higher than the control experiments.

A structured approach to Exposure Based Waiving of human health endpoints under REACH developed in the OSIRIS project.

PubMed

Marquart, Hans; Meijster, Tim; Van de Bovenkamp, Marja; Ter Burg, Wouter; Spaan, Suzanne; Van Engelen, Jacqueline

2012-03-01

Exposure Based Waiving (EBW) is one of the options in REACH when there is insufficient hazard data on a specific endpoint. Rules for adaptation of test requirements are specified and a general option for EBW is given via Appendix XI of REACH, allowing waiving of repeated dose toxicity studies, reproductive toxicity studies and carcinogenicity studies under a number of conditions if exposure is very low. A decision tree is described that was developed in the European project OSIRIS (Optimised Strategies for Risk Assessment of Industrial Chemicals through Integration of Non-Test and Test Information) to help decide in what cases EBW can be justified. The decision tree uses specific criteria as well as more general questions. For the latter, guidance on interpretation and resulting conclusions is provided. Criteria and guidance are partly based on an expert elicitation process. Among the specific criteria a number of proposed Thresholds of Toxicological Concern are used. The decision tree, expanded with specific parts on absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion that are not described in this paper, is implemented in the OSIRIS webtool on integrated testing strategies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fungal community structure of fallen pine and oak wood at different stages of decomposition in the Qinling Mountains, China.

PubMed

Yuan, Jie; Zheng, Xiaofeng; Cheng, Fei; Zhu, Xian; Hou, Lin; Li, Jingxia; Zhang, Shuoxin

2017-10-24

Historically, intense forest hazards have resulted in an increase in the quantity of fallen wood in the Qinling Mountains. Fallen wood has a decisive influence on the nutrient cycling, carbon budget and ecosystem biodiversity of forests, and fungi are essential for the decomposition of fallen wood. Moreover, decaying dead wood alters fungal communities. The development of high-throughput sequencing methods has facilitated the ongoing investigation of relevant molecular forest ecosystems with a focus on fungal communities. In this study, fallen wood and its associated fungal communities were compared at different stages of decomposition to evaluate relative species abundance and species diversity. The physical and chemical factors that alter fungal communities were also compared by performing correspondence analysis according to host tree species across all stages of decomposition. Tree species were the major source of differences in fungal community diversity at all decomposition stages, and fungal communities achieved the highest levels of diversity at the intermediate and late decomposition stages. Interactions between various physical and chemical factors and fungal communities shared the same regulatory mechanisms, and there was no tree species-specific influence. Improving our knowledge of wood-inhabiting fungal communities is crucial for forest ecosystem conservation.

Probabilistic Approaches for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures and Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwag, Shinyoung

Performance assessment of structures, systems, and components for multi-hazard scenarios has received significant attention in recent years. However, the concept of multi-hazard analysis is quite broad in nature and the focus of existing literature varies across a wide range of problems. In some cases, such studies focus on hazards that either occur simultaneously or are closely correlated with each other. For example, seismically induced flooding or seismically induced fires. In other cases, multi-hazard studies relate to hazards that are not dependent or correlated but have strong likelihood of occurrence at different times during the lifetime of a structure. The current approaches for risk assessment need enhancement to account for multi-hazard risks. It must be able to account for uncertainty propagation in a systems-level analysis, consider correlation among events or failure modes, and allow integration of newly available information from continually evolving simulation models, experimental observations, and field measurements. This dissertation presents a detailed study that proposes enhancements by incorporating Bayesian networks and Bayesian updating within a performance-based probabilistic framework. The performance-based framework allows propagation of risk as well as uncertainties in the risk estimates within a systems analysis. Unlike conventional risk assessment techniques such as a fault-tree analysis, a Bayesian network can account for statistical dependencies and correlations among events/hazards. The proposed approach is extended to develop a risk-informed framework for quantitative validation and verification of high fidelity system-level simulation tools. Validation of such simulations can be quite formidable within the context of a multi-hazard risk assessment in nuclear power plants. The efficiency of this approach lies in identification of critical events, components, and systems that contribute to the overall risk. Validation of any event or component on the critical path is relatively more important in a risk-informed environment. Significance of multi-hazard risk is also illustrated for uncorrelated hazards of earthquakes and high winds which may result in competing design objectives. It is also illustrated that the number of computationally intensive nonlinear simulations needed in performance-based risk assessment for external hazards can be significantly reduced by using the power of Bayesian updating in conjunction with the concept of equivalent limit-state.

Anthropogenic influence on forest landscape in the Khumbu valley, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lingua, Emanuele; Garbarino, Matteo; Urbinati, Carlo; Carrer, Marco

2013-04-01

High altitude Himalayan regions are geo-dynamically very active and very sensitive to natural and anthropogenic disturbances due to their steep slopes, variations of precipitations with elevation and short growing periods. Nonetheless, even in this remote region human pressure is often the most important factor affecting forest landscape. In the last decades the firewood demand has increased each year between September to December. The increase in the number of tourists, mountaineering, guides, porters, carpenters, lodges lead to a peak in the use of fuelwood. In order to understand anthropogenic impacts on forest, resources landscape and stand scale dynamics were analyzed in the Sagarmatha National Park (SNP) and its Buffer Zone in the Khumbu Valley (Nepal, Eastern Himalaya). Biological and historical data sources were employed, and a multi-scale approach was adopted to capture the influence of human activities on the distribution of tree species and forest structure. Stand structure and a range of environmental variables were sampled in 197 20x20 m square plots, and land use and anthropogenic variables were derived in a GIS environment (thematic maps and IKONOS, Landsat and Terra ASTER satellite images). We used multivariate statistical analyses to relate forest structure, anthropogenic influences, land uses, and topography. Fuel wood is the prime source of energy for cooking (1480-1880 Kg/person/year) and Quercus semecarpifolia, Rhododendron arboreum and Pinus wallichiana, among the others, are the most exploited species. Due to lack of sufficient energy sources deforestation is becoming a problem in the area. This might be a major threat causing soil erosion, landslides and other natural hazards. Among the 25 species of trees that were found in the Buffer Zone Community Forests of SNP, Pinus wallichiana, Lyonia ovalifolia, Quercus semecarpifolia and Rhododendron arboreum are the dominant species. The total stand density ranged from 228 to 379 tree/ha and the basal area ranged from 2.9 to 15.8 m2/ha. Low density stands having sparse trees and rare big trees were located in close proximity to tracks and lodges. The huge variability in species diversity (from 0.052 to 0.946) of this area was found to be strongly related to environmental factors such as elevation and topography. Forests are not storing enough biomass and volume as expected for given forest types. The excessive looping especially of wet, green branches, has adverse effects on the growth potentials of existing trees, their resistance to natural calamities, and the regeneration capacity of the forest stock. According to the data collected, natural resources have the potential to support the locals' needs, but current practices do not allow sustainability. A new integrated management approach would be necessary in order to control both harvesting pressure and grazing activities. This to enhance natural regeneration, maintain forest cover and increase protective functions against natural hazards.

Impact Hazard Assessment for 2011 AG5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chesley, Steven R.; Bhaskaran, S.; Chodas, P. W.; Grebow, D.; Landau, D.; Petropoulos, A. E.; Sims, J. A.; Yeomans, D. K.

2012-10-01

2011 AG5 is a Potentially Hazardous Asteroid roughly 140 m in diameter. The current orbit determination, based on 213 optical measurements from 2010-Nov-08.6 to 2011-Sep-21.4, allows for the possibility of an Earth impact on 2040-Feb-05.2 with probability 0.2%. The 2040 potential impact is a 17:10 resonant return from a 2023 Earth encounter, where if the asteroid passes through a 365 km keyhole, it will go on to impact in 2040. We discuss the critical points on the decision tree for averting this potential impact. The decision to proceed with a deflection mission should not be made prematurely, when there is still a chance for eliminating the impact hazard through observations rather than intervention, and yet the decision must not be delayed past the point where it is no longer feasible to achieve a deflection. Thus the decision tree is informed by the evolution of the asteroid’s orbital uncertainty and by the available mission scenarios. We approach the orbital prediction problem by assessing the expected future evolution of the orbital uncertainty at the 2040 encounter based on various observational scenarios. We find that observations made at the next favorable apparition in 2013 are 95% likely to eliminate the possibility of a 2040 impact altogether. With the addition of 2015-16 observations, this likelihood increases to about 99%. Conversely, if the asteroid turns out to really be on an Earth impacting trajectory, the 2013 observations could raise the chance of impact to 10-15%, and observations in 2015-2016 could raise the chance of impact to 70%. On the deflection side, we describe a range of viable kinetic deflection mission scenarios. Mission timelines allow detailed planning to be delayed until after the 2013 observations and spacecraft fabrication to be delayed until after the 2015-16 observations. The full report is available at http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news175.html.

Snow avalanche activity in the High Tatras Mountains: new data achieved by means of dendrogeomorphic methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tichavsky, R.

2016-12-01

The High Tatras Mountains are permanently affected by the occurrence of hazardous geomorphic processes. Snow avalanches represent a common hazard that threatens the infrastructure and humans living and visiting the mountains. So far, the spatio-temporal reconstruction of snow avalanche histories was based only on existing archival records, orthophoto interpretation and lichenometric dating in the High Tatras Mountains. Dendrogeomorphic methods allow for the intra-seasonal dating of scars on tree stems and branches and have been broadly used for the dating of snow avalanche events all over the world. We extracted the increment cores and cross sections from 189 individuals of Pinus mugo var. mugo growing on four tali in the Great Cold Valley and dated all the past scars that could correspond with the winter to early spring occurrence of snow avalanches. The dating was supported by the visual analysis of three orthophoto images from 2004, 2009 and 2014. In total, nineteen event years of snow avalanches (10 certain events, and 9 probable events) were identified since 1959. Historical archives provided evidence only for nine event years since 1987, and three of them were confirmed dendrogeomorphically. Geomorphic effect of recent snow avalanches identified by the spatial distribution of scarred trees in individual years corresponds with the extent of events visible from the orthophotos. We can confirm higher frequency of snow avalanche events since 1980s (17 out of 19 events) and significant increase during the last ten years. The future expected climatic changes associated with the changes in temperature and precipitation regime could significantly influence on the frequency of snow avalanches. Therefore, our results can become the starting line for more extensive dendrogeomorphic survey in the High Tatras Mountains in order to create a catalogue of all natural hazards for the future prediction and modelling of these phenomena in context of environmental changes.

Generation of a mixture model ground-motion prediction equation for Northern Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haendel, A.; Kuehn, N. M.; Scherbaum, F.

2012-12-01

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) empirically derived ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are usually applied to estimate the ground motion at a site of interest as a function of source, path and site related predictor variables. Because GMPEs are derived from limited datasets they are not expected to give entirely accurate estimates or to reflect the whole range of possible future ground motion, thus giving rise to epistemic uncertainty in the hazard estimates. This is especially true for regions without an indigenous GMPE where foreign models have to be applied. The choice of appropriate GMPEs can then dominate the overall uncertainty in hazard assessments. In order to quantify this uncertainty, the set of ground motion models used in a modern PSHA has to capture (in SSHAC language) the center, body, and range of the possible ground motion at the site of interest. This was traditionally done within a logic tree framework in which existing (or only slightly modified) GMPEs occupy the branches of the tree and the branch weights describe the degree-of-belief of the analyst in their applicability. This approach invites the problem to combine GMPEs of very different quality and hence to potentially overestimate epistemic uncertainty. Some recent hazard analysis have therefore resorted to using a small number of high quality GMPEs as backbone models from which the full distribution of GMPEs for the logic tree (to capture the full range of possible ground motion uncertainty) where subsequently generated by scaling (in a general sense). In the present study, a new approach is proposed to determine an optimized backbone model as weighted components of a mixture model. In doing so, each GMPE is assumed to reflect the generation mechanism (e. g. in terms of stress drop, propagation properties, etc.) for at least a fraction of possible ground motions in the area of interest. The combination of different models into a mixture model (which is learned from observed ground motion data in the region of interest) is then transferring information from other regions to the region where the observations have been produced in a data driven way. The backbone model is learned by comparing the model predictions to observations of the target region. For each observation and each model, the likelihood of an observation given a certain GMPE is calculated. Mixture weights can then be assigned using the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm or Bayesian inference. The new method is used to generate a backbone reference model for Northern Chile, an area for which no dedicated GMPE exists. Strong motion recordings from the target area are used to learn the backbone model from a set of 10 GMPEs developed for different subduction zones of the world. The formation of mixture models is done individually for interface and intraslab type events. The ability of the resulting backbone models to describe ground motions in Northern Chile is then compared to the predictive performance of their constituent models.

Optimizing Wind Power Generation while Minimizing Wildlife Impacts in an Urban Area

PubMed Central

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L.; Curtis, Peter S.

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown. PMID:23409117

Application of ground penetrating radar in detecting the hazards and risks of termites and ants in soil levees.

PubMed

Yang, Xiuhao; Henderson, Gregg; Mao, Lixin; Evans, Ahmad

2009-08-01

A ground penetrating radar (GPR) technique was used to detect Formosan subterranean termite (Coptotermes formosanus) and red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta) hazards and risks (targets) in a soil levee at the London Avenue Canal in New Orleans, LA. To make this assessment, GPR signal scans were examined for features produced by termite or ant activities and potential sources of food and shelter such as nests, tree roots, and voids (tunnels). The total scanned length of the soil levee was 4,125 m. The average velocity and effective depth of the radar penetration was 0.080 m/ns and 0.61 m, respectively. Four hundred twenty-seven targets were identified. Tree roots (38), voids (31), fire ant nests (209), and metal objects (149) were detected, but no Formosan termite carton nests were identified. The lack of identified termite nests may be related to drowning events at the time to the flood. Based on the target density (TD), the two new floodwall and levee sections that were rebuilt or reinforced after they were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were determined to be at low potential risk from termites and ants. A merging target density (MTD) method indicated a high potential risk near one of the breached sections still remains. Foraging and nesting activity of Formosan subterranean termites and red imported fire ants may be a contributory factor to the levee failure at the London Avenue Canal.

Optimizing wind power generation while minimizing wildlife impacts in an urban area.

PubMed

Bohrer, Gil; Zhu, Kunpeng; Jones, Robert L; Curtis, Peter S

2013-01-01

The location of a wind turbine is critical to its power output, which is strongly affected by the local wind field. Turbine operators typically seek locations with the best wind at the lowest level above ground since turbine height affects installation costs. In many urban applications, such as small-scale turbines owned by local communities or organizations, turbine placement is challenging because of limited available space and because the turbine often must be added without removing existing infrastructure, including buildings and trees. The need to minimize turbine hazard to wildlife compounds the challenge. We used an exclusion zone approach for turbine-placement optimization that incorporates spatially detailed maps of wind distribution and wildlife densities with power output predictions for the Ohio State University campus. We processed public GIS records and airborne lidar point-cloud data to develop a 3D map of all campus buildings and trees. High resolution large-eddy simulations and long-term wind climatology were combined to provide land-surface-affected 3D wind fields and the corresponding wind-power generation potential. This power prediction map was then combined with bird survey data. Our assessment predicts that exclusion of areas where bird numbers are highest will have modest effects on the availability of locations for power generation. The exclusion zone approach allows the incorporation of wildlife hazard in wind turbine siting and power output considerations in complex urban environments even when the quantitative interaction between wildlife behavior and turbine activity is unknown.

Integration of Aquifer Storage Transfer and Recovery and HACCP for Ensuring Drinking Water Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S. I.; Ji, H. W.

2015-12-01

The integration of ASTR (Aquifer Storage Transfer and Recovery) and HACCP (Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point) is being attempted to ensure drinking water quality in a delta area. ASTR is a water supply system in which surface water is injected into a well for storage and recovered from a different well. During the process natural water treatment is achieved in the aquifer. ASTR has advantages over surface reservoirs in that the water is protected from external contaminants and free from water loss by evaporation. HACCP, originated from the food industry, can efficiently manage hazards and reduce risks when it is introduced to the drinking water production. The study area is the located in the Nakdong River Delta, South Korea. Water quality of this region has been deteriorated due to the increased pollution loads from the upstream cities and industrial complexes. ASTR equipped with HACCP system is suggested as a means to heighten the public trust in drinking water. After the drinking water supply system using ASTR was decomposed into ten processes, principles of HACCP were applied. Hazardous event analysis was conducted for 114 hazardous events and nine major hazardous events were identified based on the likelihood and the severity assessment. Potential risk of chemical hazards, as a function of amounts, travel distance and toxicity, was evaluated and the result shows the relative threat a city poses to the drinking water supply facility. Next, critical control points were determined using decision tree analysis. Critical limits, maximum and/or minimum values to which biological, chemical or physical parameters must be controlled, were established. Other procedures such as monitoring, corrective actions and will be presented.

Seattle - seeking balance between the Space Needle, Starbucks, the Seahawks, and subduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidale, J. E.

2012-12-01

Seattle has rich natural hazards. Lahars from Mount Rainier flow from the south, volcanic ash drifts from the East, the South Whidbey Island fault lies north and east, the Cascadia subduction zone dives underfoot from the west, and the Seattle fault lies just below the surface. Past and future landslides are sprinkled democratically across the surface, and Lake Washington and Puget Sound are known to seiche. All are ultimately due to subduction tectonics. As in most tectonically-exposed cities, the hazards are due mainly (1) to the buildings predating the relatively recent revelation that faulting here is active, (2) transportation corridors built long ago that are aging without a good budget for renewal, and (3) the unknown unknowns. These hazards are hard to quantify. Only the largest earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust have a 10,000-year history, and even for them the down-dip rupture limits, stress drop and attenuation have unacceptable uncertainty. For the threatening faults closer in the upper crust, written history is short, glacial erosion and blanketing preclude many geophysical investigations, and healthy forests frustrate InSAR. On the brighter side, the direct hazard of earthquake shaking is being addressed as well as it can be. The current seismic hazard estimate is derived by methods among the most sophisticated in the world. Logic trees informed by consensus forged from a series of workshops delineate the scenarios. Finite difference calculations that include the world-class deep and soggy basins project the shaking from fault to vulnerable city. One useful cartoon synthesizing the earthquake hazard, based on Art Frankel's report, is shown below. It illustrates that important areas will be strongly shaken, and issues remain to be addressed. Fortunately, with great coffee and good perspective, we are moving toward improved disaster preparedness and resilience.

Kernel Smoothing Methods for Non-Poissonian Seismic Hazard Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Gordon

2017-04-01

For almost fifty years, the mainstay of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been the methodology developed by Cornell, which assumes that earthquake occurrence is a Poisson process, and that the spatial distribution of epicentres can be represented by a set of polygonal source zones, within which seismicity is uniform. Based on Vere-Jones' use of kernel smoothing methods for earthquake forecasting, these methods were adapted in 1994 by the author for application to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. There is no need for ambiguous boundaries of polygonal source zones, nor for the hypothesis of time independence of earthquake sequences. In Europe, there are many regions where seismotectonic zones are not well delineated, and where there is a dynamic stress interaction between events, so that they cannot be described as independent. From the Amatrice earthquake of 24 August, 2016, the subsequent damaging earthquakes in Central Italy over months were not independent events. Removing foreshocks and aftershocks is not only an ill-defined task, it has a material effect on seismic hazard computation. Because of the spatial dispersion of epicentres, and the clustering of magnitudes for the largest events in a sequence, which might all be around magnitude 6, the specific event causing the highest ground motion can vary from one site location to another. Where significant active faults have been clearly identified geologically, they should be modelled as individual seismic sources. The remaining background seismicity should be modelled as non-Poissonian using statistical kernel smoothing methods. This approach was first applied for seismic hazard analysis at a UK nuclear power plant two decades ago, and should be included within logic-trees for future probabilistic seismic hazard at critical installations within Europe. In this paper, various salient European applications are given.

Method for disposing of hazardous wastes

DOEpatents

Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

1995-01-01

A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl- 2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

Assessing the Cost of an Invasive Forest Pathogen: A Case Study with Oak Wilt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haight, Robert G.; Homans, Frances R.; Horie, Tetsuya; Mehta, Shefali V.; Smith, David J.; Venette, Robert C.

2011-03-01

Economic assessment of damage caused by invasive alien species provides useful information to consider when determining whether management programs should be established, modified, or discontinued. We estimate the baseline economic damage from an invasive alien pathogen, Ceratocystis fagacearum, a fungus that causes oak wilt, which is a significant disease of oaks ( Quercus spp.) in the central United States. We focus on Anoka County, Minnesota, a 1,156 km2 mostly urban county in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul metropolitan region. We develop a landscape-level model of oak wilt spread that accounts for underground and overland pathogen transmission. We predict the economic damage of tree mortality from oak wilt spread in the absence of management during the period 2007-2016. Our metric of economic damage is removal cost, which is one component of the total economic loss from tree mortality. We estimate that Anoka County has 5.92 million oak trees and 885 active oak wilt pockets covering 5.47 km2 in 2007. The likelihood that landowners remove infected oaks varies by land use and ranges from 86% on developed land to 57% on forest land. Over the next decade, depending on the rates of oak wilt pocket establishment and expansion, 76-266 thousand trees will be infected with discounted removal cost of 18-60 million. Although our predictions of removal costs are substantial, they are lower bounds on the total economic loss from tree mortality because we do not estimate economic losses from reduced services and increased hazards. Our predictions suggest that there are significant economic benefits, in terms of damage reduction, from preventing new pocket establishment or slowing the radial growth of existing pockets.

Understanding Extreme Precipitation Behaviour in British Columbia's Lower Mainland Using Historical and Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spry, Christina

In British Columbia, Pineapple Express storms can lead to flooding, slope failures and negative impacts to water quality. Mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in a changing climate requires an understanding of how local climate responds to regional-toglobal climate forcing patterns. In this study, I use historical and proxy data to identify the distinguishing characteristics of Pineapple Express storms and to develop a tree ring oxygen isotope record (1960--1995) of local climate conditions in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. I found that high magnitude Pineapple Express storms have significantly higher precipitation and streamflow than other storms types, which result in relatively high contributions of Pineapple Express storms to the annual water budget. As well, Pineapple Express precipitation is characterized by an enriched delta18O isotopic signature when compared to precipitation originating from the North Pacific Ocean. However, differences in source water do not appear to be driving the variability in tree ring delta18O ratios. Instead, tree ring isotopic values exhibit a regional climate pattern that is strongly driven by latitudinal temperature gradients and the Rayleigh distillation effect. Therefore, future warmer conditions may decrease the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, which can be recorded in the tree ring isotope record. The results also suggest that warmer temperatures due to climate change could result in more active Pineapple Express storm seasons, with multiple PE storms happening over a short period of time. Concurrent storms significantly increase the risk to society because the resulting antecedent saturated soil conditions can trigger precipitationinduced natural hazards. Keywords: extreme weather; stable isotopes; Pineapple Express; British Columbia; climate change; tree rings.

First USGS urban seismic hazard maps predict the effects of soils

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cramer, C.H.; Gomberg, J.S.; Schweig, E.S.; Waldron, B.A.; Tucker, K.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic and scenario urban seismic hazard maps have been produced for Memphis, Shelby County, Tennessee covering a six-quadrangle area of the city. The nine probabilistic maps are for peak ground acceleration and 0.2 s and 1.0 s spectral acceleration and for 10%, 5%, and 2% probability of being exceeded in 50 years. Six scenario maps for these three ground motions have also been generated for both an M7.7 and M6.2 on the southwest arm of the New Madrid seismic zone ending at Marked Tree, Arkansas. All maps include the effect of local geology. Relative to the national seismic hazard maps, the effect of the thick sediments beneath Memphis is to decrease 0.2 s probabilistic ground motions by 0-30% and increase 1.0 s probabilistic ground motions by ???100%. Probabilistic peak ground accelerations remain at levels similar to the national maps, although the ground motion gradient across Shelby County is reduced and ground motions are more uniform within the county. The M7.7 scenario maps show ground motions similar to the 5%-in-50-year probabilistic maps. As an effect of local geology, both M7.7 and M6.2 scenario maps show a more uniform seismic ground-motion hazard across Shelby County than scenario maps with constant site conditions (i.e., NEHRP B/C boundary).

Integrating asthma hazard characterization methods for consumer products.

PubMed

Maier, A; Vincent, M J; Gadagbui, B; Patterson, J; Beckett, W; Dalton, P; Kimber, I; Selgrade, M J K

2014-10-01

Despite extensive study, definitive conclusions regarding the relationship between asthma and consumer products remain elusive. Uncertainties reflect the multi-faceted nature of asthma (i.e., contributions of immunologic and non-immunologic mechanisms). Many substances used in consumer products are associated with occupational asthma or asthma-like syndromes. However, risk assessment methods do not adequately predict the potential for consumer product exposures to trigger asthma and related syndromes under lower-level end-user conditions. A decision tree system is required to characterize asthma and respiratory-related hazards associated with consumer products. A system can be built to incorporate the best features of existing guidance, frameworks, and models using a weight-of-evidence (WoE) approach. With this goal in mind, we have evaluated chemical hazard characterization methods for asthma and asthma-like responses. Despite the wealth of information available, current hazard characterization methods do not definitively identify whether a particular ingredient will cause or exacerbate asthma, asthma-like responses, or sensitization of the respiratory tract at lower levels associated with consumer product use. Effective use of hierarchical lines of evidence relies on consideration of the relevance and potency of assays, organization of assays by mode of action, and better assay validation. It is anticipated that the analysis of existing methods will support the development of a refined WoE approach. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability studies of Integrated Modular Engine system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

1993-01-01

A study was performed to evaluate the reliability of Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concepts. Comparisons were made between networked IME systems and non-networked discrete systems using expander cycle configurations. Both redundant and non-redundant systems were analyzed. Binomial approximation and Markov analysis techniques were employed to evaluate total system reliability. In addition, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA), Preliminary Hazard Analyses (PHA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) were performed to allow detailed evaluation of the IME concept. A discussion of these system reliability concepts is also presented.

System safety in Stirling engine development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bankaitis, H.

1981-01-01

The DOE/NASA Stirling Engine Project Office has required that contractors make safety considerations an integral part of all phases of the Stirling engine development program. As an integral part of each engine design subtask, analyses are evolved to determine possible modes of failure. The accepted system safety analysis techniques (Fault Tree, FMEA, Hazards Analysis, etc.) are applied in various degrees of extent at the system, subsystem and component levels. The primary objectives are to identify critical failure areas, to enable removal of susceptibility to such failures or their effects from the system and to minimize risk.

Reliability studies of integrated modular engine system designs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

1993-01-01

A study was performed to evaluate the reliability of Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concepts. Comparisons were made between networked IME systems and non-networked discrete systems using expander cycle configurations. Both redundant and non-redundant systems were analyzed. Binomial approximation and Markov analysis techniques were employed to evaluate total system reliability. In addition, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA), Preliminary Hazard Analyses (PHA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) were performed to allow detailed evaluation of the IME concept. A discussion of these system reliability concepts is also presented.

Master Logic Diagram: method for hazard and initiating event identification in process plants.

PubMed

Papazoglou, I A; Aneziris, O N

2003-02-28

Master Logic Diagram (MLD), a method for identifying events initiating accidents in chemical installations, is presented. MLD is a logic diagram that resembles a fault tree but without the formal mathematical properties of the latter. MLD starts with a Top Event "Loss of Containment" and decomposes it into simpler contributing events. A generic MLD has been developed which may be applied to all chemical installations storing toxic and/or flammable substances. The method is exemplified through its application to an ammonia storage facility.

Reliability studies of integrated modular engine system designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

1993-06-01

A study was performed to evaluate the reliability of Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concepts. Comparisons were made between networked IME systems and non-networked discrete systems using expander cycle configurations. Both redundant and non-redundant systems were analyzed. Binomial approximation and Markov analysis techniques were employed to evaluate total system reliability. In addition, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA), Preliminary Hazard Analyses (PHA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) were performed to allow detailed evaluation of the IME concept. A discussion of these system reliability concepts is also presented.

Reliability studies of Integrated Modular Engine system designs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hardy, Terry L.; Rapp, Douglas C.

1993-06-01

A study was performed to evaluate the reliability of Integrated Modular Engine (IME) concepts. Comparisons were made between networked IME systems and non-networked discrete systems using expander cycle configurations. Both redundant and non-redundant systems were analyzed. Binomial approximation and Markov analysis techniques were employed to evaluate total system reliability. In addition, Failure Modes and Effects Analyses (FMEA), Preliminary Hazard Analyses (PHA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) were performed to allow detailed evaluation of the IME concept. A discussion of these system reliability concepts is also presented.

Metastability for discontinuous dynamical systems under Lévy noise: Case study on Amazonian Vegetation.

PubMed

Serdukova, Larissa; Zheng, Yayun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen

2017-08-24

For the tipping elements in the Earth's climate system, the most important issue to address is how stable is the desirable state against random perturbations. Extreme biotic and climatic events pose severe hazards to tropical rainforests. Their local effects are extremely stochastic and difficult to measure. Moreover, the direction and intensity of the response of forest trees to such perturbations are unknown, especially given the lack of efficient dynamical vegetation models to evaluate forest tree cover changes over time. In this study, we consider randomness in the mathematical modelling of forest trees by incorporating uncertainty through a stochastic differential equation. According to field-based evidence, the interactions between fires and droughts are a more direct mechanism that may describe sudden forest degradation in the south-eastern Amazon. In modeling the Amazonian vegetation system, we include symmetric α-stable Lévy perturbations. We report results of stability analysis of the metastable fertile forest state. We conclude that even a very slight threat to the forest state stability represents L´evy noise with large jumps of low intensity, that can be interpreted as a fire occurring in a non-drought year. During years of severe drought, high-intensity fires significantly accelerate the transition between a forest and savanna state.

Application of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), cause and effect analysis, and Pareto diagram in conjunction with HACCP to a corn curl manufacturing plant.

PubMed

Varzakas, Theodoros H; Arvanitoyannis, Ioannis S

2007-01-01

The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model has been applied for the risk assessment of corn curl manufacturing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the snacks industry was attempted in an effort to exclude the presence of GMOs in the final product. This is of crucial importance both from the ethics and the legislation (Regulations EC 1829/2003; EC 1830/2003; Directive EC 18/2001) point of view. The Preliminary Hazard Analysis and the Fault Tree Analysis were used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (corn curls processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram, and the fishbone diagram). Finally, Pareto diagrams were employed towards the optimization of GMOs detection potential of FMEA.

Transverse stresses and modes of failure in tree branches and other beams.

PubMed

Ennos, A R; van Casteren, A

2010-04-22

The longitudinal stresses in beams subjected to bending also set up transverse stresses within them; they compress the cross section when the beam's curvature is being increased and stretch it when its curvature is being reduced. Analysis shows that transverse stresses rise to a maximum at the neutral axis and increase with both the bending moment applied and the curvature of the beam. These stresses can qualitatively explain the fracture behaviour of tree branches. Curved 'hazard beams' that are being straightened split down the middle because of the low transverse tensile strength of wood. By contrast, straight branches of light wood buckle when they are bent because of its low transverse compressive strength. Branches of denser wood break, but the low transverse tensile strength diverts the crack longitudinally when the fracture has only run half-way across the beam, to produce their characteristic 'greenstick fracture'. The bones of young mammals and uniaxially reinforced composite beams may also be prone to greenstick fracture because of their lower transverse tensile strength.

Using fault tree analysis to identify contributing factors to engulfment in flowing grain in on-farm grain bins.

PubMed

Kingman, D M; Field, W E

2005-11-01

Findings reported by researchers at Illinois State University and Purdue University indicated that since 1980, an average of eight individuals per year have become engulfed and died in farm grain bins in the U.S. and Canada and that all these deaths are significant because they are believed to be preventable. During a recent effort to develop intervention strategies and recommendations for an ASAE farm grain bin safety standard, fault tree analysis (FTA) was utilized to identify contributing factors to engulfments in grain stored in on-farm grain bins. FTA diagrams provided a spatial perspective of the circumstances that occurred prior to engulfment incidents, a perspective never before presented in other hazard analyses. The FTA also demonstrated relationships and interrelationships of the contributing factors. FTA is a useful tool that should be applied more often in agricultural incident investigations to assist in the more complete understanding of the problem studied.

Risk and safety perception on urban and rural roads: Effects of environmental features, driver age and risk sensitivity.

PubMed

Cox, Jolene A; Beanland, Vanessa; Filtness, Ashleigh J

2017-10-03

The ability to detect changing visual information is a vital component of safe driving. In addition to detecting changing visual information, drivers must also interpret its relevance to safety. Environmental changes considered to have high safety relevance will likely demand greater attention and more timely responses than those considered to have lower safety relevance. The aim of this study was to explore factors that are likely to influence perceptions of risk and safety regarding changing visual information in the driving environment. Factors explored were the environment in which the change occurs (i.e., urban vs. rural), the type of object that changes, and the driver's age, experience, and risk sensitivity. Sixty-three licensed drivers aged 18-70 years completed a hazard rating task, which required them to rate the perceived hazardousness of changing specific elements within urban and rural driving environments. Three attributes of potential hazards were systematically manipulated: the environment (urban, rural); the type of object changed (road sign, car, motorcycle, pedestrian, traffic light, animal, tree); and its inherent safety risk (low risk, high risk). Inherent safety risk was manipulated by either varying the object's placement, on/near or away from the road, or altering an infrastructure element that would require a change to driver behavior. Participants also completed two driving-related risk perception tasks, rating their relative crash risk and perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors. Driver age was not significantly associated with hazard ratings, but individual differences in perceived risk of aberrant driving behaviors predicted hazard ratings, suggesting that general driving-related risk sensitivity plays a strong role in safety perception. In both urban and rural scenes, there were significant associations between hazard ratings and inherent safety risk, with low-risk changes perceived as consistently less hazardous than high-risk impact changes; however, the effect was larger for urban environments. There were also effects of object type, with certain objects rated as consistently more safety relevant. In urban scenes, changes involving pedestrians were rated significantly more hazardous than all other objects, and in rural scenes, changes involving animals were rated as significantly more hazardous. Notably, hazard ratings were found to be higher in urban compared with rural driving environments, even when changes were matched between environments. This study demonstrates that drivers perceive rural roads as less risky than urban roads, even when similar scenarios occur in both environments. Age did not affect hazard ratings. Instead, the findings suggest that the assessment of risk posed by hazards is influenced more by individual differences in risk sensitivity. This highlights the need for driver education to account for appraisal of hazards' risk and relevance, in addition to hazard detection, when considering factors that promote road safety.

Application of ISO 22000 and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) for industrial processing of salmon: a case study.

PubMed

Arvanitoyannis, Ioannis S; Varzakas, Theodoros H

2008-05-01

The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model was applied for risk assessment of salmon manufacturing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the salmon industry was attempted in conjunction with ISO 22000. Preliminary Hazard Analysis was used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (salmon processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points were identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram and fishbone diagram). In this work, a comparison of ISO 22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over salmon processing and packaging. However, the main emphasis was put on the quantification of risk assessment by determining the RPN per identified processing hazard. Fish receiving, casing/marking, blood removal, evisceration, filet-making cooling/freezing, and distribution were the processes identified as the ones with the highest RPN (252, 240, 210, 210, 210, 210, 200 respectively) and corrective actions were undertaken. After the application of corrective actions, a second calculation of RPN values was carried out resulting in substantially lower values (below the upper acceptable limit of 130). It is noteworthy that the application of Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram) led to converging results thus corroborating the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO 22000 system of a salmon processing industry is anticipated to prove advantageous to industrialists, state food inspectors, and consumers.

Application of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and cause and effect analysis in conjunction with ISO 22000 to a snails (Helix aspersa) processing plant; A case study.

PubMed

Arvanitoyannis, Ioannis S; Varzakas, Theodoros H

2009-08-01

Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) has been applied for the risk assessment of snails manufacturing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the snails industry was attempted in conjunction with ISO 22000. Preliminary Hazard Analysis was used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (snails processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram, and fishbone diagram). In this work a comparison of ISO22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over snails processing and packaging. However, the main emphasis was put on the quantification of risk assessment by determining the RPN per identified processing hazard. Sterilization of tins, bioaccumulation of heavy metals, packaging of shells and poisonous mushrooms, were the processes identified as the ones with the highest RPN (280, 240, 147, 144, respectively) and corrective actions were undertaken. Following the application of corrective actions, a second calculation of RPN values was carried out leading to considerably lower values (below the upper acceptable limit of 130). It is noteworthy that the application of Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram) led to converging results thus corroborating the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO22000 system of a snails processing industry is considered imperative.

Predictive modeling of hazardous waste landfill total above-ground biomass using passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadley, Brian Christopher

This dissertation assessed remotely sensed data and geospatial modeling technique(s) to map the spatial distribution of total above-ground biomass present on the surface of the Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) hazardous waste landfill. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, regression kriging, and tree-structured regression were employed to model the empirical relationship between in-situ measured Bahia (Paspalum notatum Flugge) and Centipede [Eremochloa ophiuroides (Munro) Hack.] grass biomass against an assortment of explanatory variables extracted from fine spatial resolution passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data. Explanatory variables included: (1) discrete channels of visible, near-infrared (NIR), and short-wave infrared (SWIR) reflectance, (2) spectral vegetation indices (SVI), (3) spectral mixture analysis (SMA) modeled fractions, (4) narrow-band derivative-based vegetation indices, and (5) LIDAR derived topographic variables (i.e. elevation, slope, and aspect). Results showed that a linear combination of the first- (1DZ_DGVI), second- (2DZ_DGVI), and third-derivative of green vegetation indices (3DZ_DGVI) calculated from hyperspectral data recorded over the 400--960 nm wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum explained the largest percentage of statistical variation (R2 = 0.5184) in the total above-ground biomass measurements. In general, the topographic variables did not correlate well with the MWMF biomass data, accounting for less than five percent of the statistical variation. It was concluded that tree-structured regression represented the optimum geospatial modeling technique due to a combination of model performance and efficiency/flexibility factors.

Lessons learned from Applications of a Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty - the Short Term and the Long Term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Wi, S.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Rodriguez, D.; Garcia, L.; Brown, C.

2016-12-01

The Decision Tree for Confronting Climate Change Uncertainty is a hierarchical, staged framework for accomplishing climate change risk management in water resources system investments. Since its development for the World Bank Water Group two years ago, the framework has been applied to pilot demonstration projects in Nepal (hydropower generation), Mexico (water supply), Kenya (multipurpose reservoir operation), and Indonesia (flood risks to dam infrastructure). An important finding of the Decision Tree demonstration projects has been the need to present the risks/opportunities of climate change to stakeholders and investors in proportion to risks/opportunities and hazards of other kinds. This presentation will provide an overview of tools and techniques used to quantify risks/opportunities to each of the project types listed above, with special attention to those found most useful for exploration of the risk space. Careful exploration of the risk/opportunity space shows that some interventions would be better taken now, whereas risks/opportunities of other types would be better instituted incrementally in order to maintain reversibility and flexibility. A number of factors contribute to the robustness/flexibility tradeoff: available capital, magnitude and imminence of potential risk/opportunity, modular (or not) character of investment, and risk aversion of the decision maker, among others. Finally, in each case, nuance was required in the translation of Decision Tree findings into actionable policy recommendations. Though the narrative of stakeholder solicitation, engagement, and ultimate partnership is unique to each case, summary lessons are available from the portfolio that can serve as a guideline to the community of climate change risk managers.

Long-term multi-hazard assessment for El Misti volcano (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Thouret, Jean-Claude; Constantinescu, Robert; Biass, Sébastien; Tonini, Roberto

2014-02-01

We propose a long-term probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for El Misti Volcano, a composite cone located <20 km from Arequipa. The second largest Peruvian city is a rapidly expanding economic centre and is classified by UNESCO as World Heritage. We apply the Bayesian Event Tree code for Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH) to produce probabilistic hazard maps for the predominant volcanic phenomena that may affect c.900,000 people living around the volcano. The methodology accounts for the natural variability displayed by volcanoes in their eruptive behaviour, such as different types/sizes of eruptions and possible vent locations. For this purpose, we treat probabilistically several model runs for some of the main hazardous phenomena (lahars, pyroclastic density currents (PDCs), tephra fall and ballistic ejecta) and data from past eruptions at El Misti (tephra fall, PDCs and lahars) and at other volcanoes (PDCs). The hazard maps, although neglecting possible interactions among phenomena or cascade effects, have been produced with a homogeneous method and refer to a common time window of 1 year. The probability maps reveal that only the north and east suburbs of Arequipa are exposed to all volcanic threats except for ballistic ejecta, which are limited to the uninhabited but touristic summit cone. The probability for pyroclastic density currents reaching recently expanding urban areas and the city along ravines is around 0.05 %/year, similar to the probability obtained for roof-critical tephra loading during the rainy season. Lahars represent by far the most probable threat (around 10 %/year) because at least four radial drainage channels can convey them approximately 20 km away from the volcano across the entire city area in heavy rain episodes, even without eruption. The Río Chili Valley represents the major concern to city safety owing to the probable cascading effect of combined threats: PDCs and rockslides, dammed lake break-outs and subsequent lahars or floods. Although this study does not intend to replace the current El Misti hazard map, the quantitative results of this probabilistic multi-hazard assessment can be incorporated into a multi-risk analysis, to support decision makers in any future improvement of the current hazard evaluation, such as further land-use planning and possible emergency management.

Aesthetic amenities and safety hazards associated with walking and bicycling for transportation in New York City.

PubMed

Lovasi, Gina S; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Neckerman, Kathryn M; Konty, Kevin; Kerker, Bonnie; Quinn, James; Rundle, Andrew

2013-02-01

One strategy to address health problems related to insufficient physical activity is to examine modifiable neighborhood characteristics associated with active transportation. The aim of this study is to evaluate whether neighborhoods with more aesthetic amenities (sidewalk cafés, street trees, and clean sidewalks) and fewer safety hazards (pedestrian-auto fatalities and homicides) are associated with active transportation. The 2003 Community Health Survey in New York City, which asked about active transportation (walking or bicycling >10 blocks) in the past 30 days, was linked to ZIP-code population census and built environment characteristics. Adjusted associations were estimated for dichotomous (any active transportation versus none) and continuous (trip frequency) active transportation outcomes. Among 8,034 adults, those living near sidewalk cafés were 10 % more likely to report active transportation (p = 0.01). Homicide rate was associated with less frequent active transportation among those reporting any active transportation (p = 0.002). Investments in aesthetic amenities or homicide prevention may help to promote active transportation.

Aesthetic amenities and safety hazards associated with walking and bicycling for transportation in New York City

PubMed Central

Lovasi, Gina S.; Schwartz-Soicher, Ofira; Neckerman, Kathryn; Konty, Kevin; Kerker, Bonnie; Quinn, James; Rundle, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background One strategy to address health problems related to insufficient physical activity is to examine modifiable neighborhood characteristics associated with active transportation. Purpose To evaluate whether neighborhoods with more aesthetic amenities (sidewalk cafés, street trees, clean sidewalks) and fewer safety hazards (pedestrian-auto fatalities, homicides) are associated with active transportation. Methods The 2003 Community Health Survey in New York City, which asked about active transportation (walking or bicycling >10 blocks) in the past 30 days, was linked to ZIP-code population census and built environment characteristics. Adjusted associations were estimated for dichotomous (any active transportation versus none), and continuous (log-transformed trip frequency) active transportation outcomes. Results Among 8,034 adults, those living near sidewalk cafés were 10% more likely to report active transportation (p=0.01). Homicide rate was associated with less frequent active transportation among those reporting active transportation (p=0.002). Conclusions Investments in aesthetic amenities or homicide prevention may help to promote active transportation. PMID:23011913

PINS Spectrum Identification Guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

A.J. Caffrey

2012-03-01

The Portable Isotopic Neutron Spectroscopy—PINS, for short—system identifies the chemicals inside munitions and containers without opening them, a decided safety advantage if the fill chemical is a hazardous substance like a chemical warfare agent or an explosive. The PINS Spectrum Identification Guide is intended as a reference for technical professionals responsible for the interpretation of PINS gamma-ray spectra. The guide is divided into two parts. The three chapters that constitute Part I cover the science and technology of PINS. Neutron activation analysis is the focus of Chapter 1. Chapter 2 explores PINS hardware, software, and related operational issues. Gamma-ray spectralmore » analysis basics are introduced in Chapter 3. The six chapters of Part II cover the identification of PINS spectra in detail. Like the PINS decision tree logic, these chapters are organized by chemical element: phosphorus-based chemicals, chlorine-based chemicals, etc. These descriptions of hazardous, toxic, and/or explosive chemicals conclude with a chapter on the identification of the inert chemicals, e.g. sand, used to fill practice munitions.« less

Final Environmental Impact Statement/Environmental Impact Report for the California Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Climate Project and its associated Marine Mammal Research Program. Volume 2

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-04-01

for public water supplies? x i. Exposure of people or property to water related hazards such as flooding or tidal waves? x 4. Plant Life. Will the...proposal result in: a. Change in the diversity of species, or number of any species of plants (including trees, shrubs, grass, crops, and aquatic plants ...5 Yes MaybeINo b. Reduction of the numbers of any unique, rare or endangered species of plants ? X c. Introduction of new species of plants into an

Operations analysis (study 2.1). Contingency analysis. [of failure modes anticipated during space shuttle upper stage planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Future operational concepts for the space transportation system were studied in terms of space shuttle upper stage failure contingencies possible during deployment, retrieval, or space servicing of automated satellite programs. Problems anticipated during mission planning were isolated using a modified 'fault tree' technique, normally used in safety analyses. A comprehensive space servicing hazard analysis is presented which classifies possible failure modes under the catagories of catastrophic collision, failure to rendezvous and dock, servicing failure, and failure to undock. The failure contingencies defined are to be taken into account during design of the upper stage.

Under which conditions, additional monitoring data are worth gathering for improving decision making? Application of the VOI theory in the Bayesian Event Tree eruption forecasting framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy

2016-04-01

Standard and new generation of monitoring observations provide in almost real-time important information about the evolution of the volcanic system. These observations are used to update the model and contribute to a better hazard assessment and to support decision making concerning potential evacuation. The framework BET_EF (based on Bayesian Event Tree) developed by INGV enables dealing with the integration of information from monitoring with the prospect of decision making. Using this framework, the objectives of the present work are i. to propose a method to assess the added value of information (within the Value Of Information (VOI) theory) from monitoring; ii. to perform sensitivity analysis on the different parameters that influence the VOI from monitoring. VOI consists in assessing the possible increase in expected value provided by gathering information, for instance through monitoring. Basically, the VOI is the difference between the value with information and the value without additional information in a Cost-Benefit approach. This theory is well suited to deal with situations that can be represented in the form of a decision tree such as the BET_EF tool. Reference values and ranges of variation (for sensitivity analysis) were defined for input parameters, based on data from the MESIMEX exercise (performed at Vesuvio volcano in 2006). Complementary methods for sensitivity analyses were implemented: local, global using Sobol' indices and regional using Contribution to Sample Mean and Variance plots. The results (specific to the case considered) obtained with the different techniques are in good agreement and enable answering the following questions: i. Which characteristics of monitoring are important for early warning (reliability)? ii. How do experts' opinions influence the hazard assessment and thus the decision? Concerning the characteristics of monitoring, the more influent parameters are the means rather than the variances for the case considered. For the parameters that concern expert setting, the weight attributed to monitoring measurement ω, the mean of thresholds, the economic context and the setting of the decision threshold are very influential. The interest of applying the VOI theory (more precisely the value of imperfect information) in the BET framework was demonstrated as support for helping experts in the setting of the monitoring system or for helping managers to decide the installation of additional monitoring systems. Acknowledgments: This work was carried out in the framework of the project MEDSUV. This project is funded under the call FP7 ENV.2012.6.4-2: Long-term monitoring experiment in geologically active regions of Europe prone to natural hazards: the Supersite concept. Grant agreement n°308665.

Probabilistic seismic hazard at the archaeological site of Gol Gumbaz in Vijayapura, south India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patil, Shivakumar G.; Menon, Arun; Dodagoudar, G. R.

2018-03-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is carried out for the archaeological site of Vijayapura in south India in order to obtain hazard consistent seismic input ground-motions for seismic risk assessment and design of seismic protection measures for monuments, where warranted. For this purpose the standard Cornell-McGuire approach, based on seismogenic zones with uniformly distributed seismicity is employed. The main features of this study are the usage of an updated and unified seismic catalogue based on moment magnitude, new seismogenic source models and recent ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in logic tree framework. Seismic hazard at the site is evaluated for level and rock site condition with 10% and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, and the corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGAs) are 0.074 and 0.142 g, respectively. In addition, the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) of the site are compared to the Indian code-defined spectrum. Comparisons are also made with results from National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA 2010), in terms of PGA and pseudo spectral accelerations (PSAs) at T = 0.2, 0.5, 1.0 and 1.25 s for 475- and 2475-yr return periods. Results of the present study are in good agreement with the PGA calculated from isoseismal map of the Killari earthquake, {M}w = 6.4 (1993). Disaggregation of PSHA results for the PGA and spectral acceleration ({S}a) at 0.5 s, displays the controlling scenario earthquake for the study region as low to moderate magnitude with the source being at a short distance from the study site. Deterministic seismic hazard (DSHA) is also carried out by taking into account three scenario earthquakes. The UHS corresponding to 475-yr return period (RP) is used to define the target spectrum and accordingly, the spectrum-compatible natural accelerograms are selected from the suite of recorded accelerograms.

Seismic Hazard to the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant, Coastal Central California; a Realistic Assessment Needed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, D. H.

2014-12-01

SourceURL:file://localhost/Users/joycehamilton/Desktop/Hamilton%20AGU%20abstractREV8-2-14.doc A recent issue of EOS featured the article "Active Faults and Nuclear Power Plants" (Chapman et.al., 2014). Although this article mainly reports on evaluations of fault hazard issues at Japan's Tsuruga NPP, it also includes a section on how the owner of the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant (DCNPP) in California, Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), is successfully responding to the evolving needs of seismic hazard assessment for that project. However, a review of the history of such assessment for the DCNPP project reveals a less benign situation, of which there is no hint in the EOS article. This history shows a long term pattern of collaborative efforts by PG&E and its operations and safety regulator, the US NRC, to maintain the operation of DCNPP using stratagems of non-recognition or non-acknowledgment of hazardous conditions, or of minimizing the postulated effects of such conditions by combinations of discovering new means of estimating ever lower levels of potential vibratory ground motions, and feeding the results into logic trees for a PRA which calculates the hazard down to levels acceptable to the NRC for the plant's continued operation. Such a result, however, can be made only if the geologic and seismologic reality of a very high level of seismic hazard to the facility is side stepped, down played, or dismissed. The actual pattern of late Quaternary—including contemporary—tectonism beneath and surrounding the DCNPP site, as shown on a realistic portrayal of geologic structures and active seismicity, is clearly at odds with such a conclusion, and with the statement in the EOS article that PG&E's Long Term Seismic Program "…has provided increased confidence that earthquakes occurring in central California are not likely to produce surprising or conflicting data."

Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Cramer, Chris H.

2017-07-01

This article presents a seismic hazard assessment for northern Iran, where a smoothed seismicity approach has been used in combination with an updated seismic catalog and a ground motion prediction equation recently found to yield good fit with data. We evaluate the hazard over a geographical area including the seismic zones of Azerbaijan, the Alborz Mountain Range, and Kopeh-Dagh, as well as parts of other neighboring seismic zones that fall within our region of interest. In the chosen approach, seismic events are not assigned to specific faults but assumed to be potential seismogenic sources distributed within regular grid cells. After performing the corresponding magnitude conversions, we decluster both historical and instrumental seismicity catalogs to obtain earthquake rates based on the number of events within each cell, and smooth the results to account for the uncertainty in the spatial distribution of future earthquakes. Seismicity parameters are computed for each seismic zone separately, and for the entire region of interest as a single uniform seismotectonic region. In the analysis, we consider uncertainties in the ground motion prediction equation, the seismicity parameters, and combine the resulting models using a logic tree. The results are presented in terms of expected peak ground acceleration (PGA) maps and hazard curves at selected locations, considering exceedance probabilities of 2 and 10% in 50 years for rock site conditions. According to our results, the highest levels of hazard are observed west of the North Tabriz and east of the North Alborz faults, where expected PGA values are between about 0.5 and 1 g for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, respectively. We analyze our results in light of similar estimates available in the literature and offer our perspective on the differences observed. We find our results to be helpful in understanding seismic hazard for northern Iran, but recognize that additional efforts are necessary to obtain more robust estimates at specific areas of interest and different site conditions.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. Since sub-daily streamflow information is unavailable for most small basins in China, one of the main challenges is finding appropriate parameter values for simulating flash floods in ungauged catchments. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability between different catchments. For this purpose, the physically-based, semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model PRMS-OMS is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly data from more than 800 storm runoff events are used to calibrate the model and evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. For each catchment, 58 catchment attributes are extracted from several data sets available for whole China. We then use a data mining technique (decision tree learning) to identify catchment similarities that can be related to good transfer performance. Finally, we use the splitting rules of decision trees for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. We show that decision tree learning allows to optimally utilize the information content of available catchment descriptors and outperforms regionalization based on a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by 15%-20%. Similar performance can be achieved with a regionalization method based on spatial proximity, but decision trees offer flexible rules for selecting suitable donor catchments, not relying on the vicinity of gauged catchments. This flexibility makes the method particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged environments. We evaluate the probability to detect flood events exceeding a given return period, considering measured discharge and PRMS-OMS simulated flows with regionalized parameters. Overall, the probability of detection of an event with a return period of 10 years is 62%. 44% of all 10-year flood peaks can be detected with a timing error of 2 hours or less. These results indicate that the modeling system can provide useful information about the timing and magnitude of flood events at ungauged sites.

Engineered nanomaterials: toward effective safety management in research laboratories.

PubMed

Groso, Amela; Petri-Fink, Alke; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Hofmann, Heinrich; Meyer, Thierry

2016-03-15

It is still unknown which types of nanomaterials and associated doses represent an actual danger to humans and environment. Meanwhile, there is consensus on applying the precautionary principle to these novel materials until more information is available. To deal with the rapid evolution of research, including the fast turnover of collaborators, a user-friendly and easy-to-apply risk assessment tool offering adequate preventive and protective measures has to be provided. Based on new information concerning the hazards of engineered nanomaterials, we improved a previously developed risk assessment tool by following a simple scheme to gain in efficiency. In the first step, using a logical decision tree, one of the three hazard levels, from H1 to H3, is assigned to the nanomaterial. Using a combination of decision trees and matrices, the second step links the hazard with the emission and exposure potential to assign one of the three nanorisk levels (Nano 3 highest risk; Nano 1 lowest risk) to the activity. These operations are repeated at each process step, leading to the laboratory classification. The third step provides detailed preventive and protective measures for the determined level of nanorisk. We developed an adapted simple and intuitive method for nanomaterial risk management in research laboratories. It allows classifying the nanoactivities into three levels, additionally proposing concrete preventive and protective measures and associated actions. This method is a valuable tool for all the participants in nanomaterial safety. The users experience an essential learning opportunity and increase their safety awareness. Laboratory managers have a reliable tool to obtain an overview of the operations involving nanomaterials in their laboratories; this is essential, as they are responsible for the employee safety, but are sometimes unaware of the works performed. Bringing this risk to a three-band scale (like other types of risks such as biological, radiation, chemical, etc.) facilitates the management for occupational health and safety specialists. Institutes and school managers can obtain the necessary information to implement an adequate safety management system. Having an easy-to-use tool enables a dialog between all these partners, whose semantic and priorities in terms of safety are often different.

Gemitis : an integrated and participative risk reduction strategy for the sustainable development of cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masure, P.

2003-04-01

The GEMITIS method has been implemented since 1995 into a global and integrated Risk Reduction Strategy for improving the seismic risk-assessment effectiveness in urban areas, including the generation of crisis scenarios and mid- to long term- seismic impact assessment. GEMITIS required us to provide more precise definitions of notions in common use by natural-hazard specialists, such as elements at risk and vulnerability. Until then, only the physical and human elements had been considered, and analysis of their vulnerability referred to their fragility in the face of aggression by nature. We have completed this approach by also characterizing the social and cultural vulnerability of a city and its inhabitants, and, with a wider scope, the functional vulnerability of the "urban system". This functional vulnerability depends upon the relations between the system elements (weak links in chains, functional relays, and defense systems) and upon the city's relations with the outside world (interdependence). Though well developed in methods for evaluating industrial risk (fault-tree analysis, event-tree analysis, multiple defense barriers, etc.), this aspect had until now been ignored by the "hard-science" specialists working on natural hazards. Based on the implementation of an Urban System Exposure methodology, we were able to identify specific human, institutional, or functional vulnerability factors for each urban system, which until had been very little discussed by risk-analysis and civil-protection specialists. In addition, we have defined the new concept of "main stakes" of the urban system, ranked by order of social value (or collective utility). Obviously, vital or strategic issues must be better resistant or protected against natural hazards than issues of secondary importance. The ranking of exposed elements of a city in terms of "main stakes" provides a very useful guide for adapting vulnerability studies and for orienting preventive actions. For this, GEMITIS is based on a systemic approach of the city and on value analysis of exposed elements. It facilitates a collective expertise for the definition of a preventive action plan based on the participation of the main urban actors (crisis preparedness, construction, land-use, etc.).

Molecular phylogeny of the higher and lower taxonomy of the Fusarium genus and differences in the evolutionary histories of multiple genes

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Species of the Fusarium genus are important fungi which is associated with health hazards in human and animals. The taxonomy of this genus has been a subject of controversy for many years. Although many researchers have applied molecular phylogenetic analysis to examine the taxonomy of Fusarium species, their phylogenetic relationships remain unclear only few comprehensive phylogenetic analyses of the Fusarium genus and a lack of suitable nucleotides and amino acid substitution rates. A previous stugy with whole genome comparison among Fusairum species revealed the possibility that each gene in Fusarium genomes has a unique evolutionary history, and such gene may bring difficulty to the reconstruction of phylogenetic tree of Fusarium. There is a need not only to check substitution rates of genes but also to perform the exact evaluation of each gene-evolution. Results We performed phylogenetic analyses based on the nucleotide sequences of the rDNA cluster region (rDNA cluster), and the β-tubulin gene (β-tub), the elongation factor 1α gene (EF-1α), and the aminoadipate reductase gene (lys2). Although incongruence of the tree topologies between lys2 and the other genes was detected, all genes supported the classification of Fusarium species into 7 major clades, I to VII. To obtain a reliable phylogeny for Fusarium species, we excluded the lys2 sequences from our dataset, and re-constructed a maximum likelihood (ML) tree based on the combined data of the rDNA cluster, β-tub, and EF-1α. Our ML tree indicated some interesting relationships in the higher and lower taxa of Fusarium species and related genera. Moreover, we observed a novel evolutionary history of lys2. We suggest that the unique tree topologies of lys2 are not due to an analytical artefact, but due to differences in the evolutionary history of genomes caused by positive selection of particular lineages. Conclusion This study showed the reliable species tree of the higher and lower taxonomy in the lineage of the Fusarium genus. Our ML tree clearly indicated 7 major clades within the Fusarium genus. Furthermore, this study reported differences in the evolutionary histories among multiple genes within this genus for the first time. PMID:22047111

Management Impacts on Carbon Dynamics in a Sierra Nevada Mixed Conifer Forest

PubMed Central

Dore, Sabina; Fry, Danny L.; Collins, Brandon M.; Vargas, Rodrigo; York, Robert A.; Stephens, Scott L.

2016-01-01

Forest ecosystems can act as sinks of carbon and thus mitigate anthropogenic carbon emissions. When forests are actively managed, treatments can alter forests carbon dynamics, reducing their sink strength and switching them from sinks to sources of carbon. These effects are generally characterized by fast temporal dynamics. Hence this study monitored for over a decade the impacts of management practices commonly used to reduce fire hazards on the carbon dynamics of mixed-conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. Soil CO2 efflux, carbon pools (i.e. soil carbon, litter, fine roots, tree biomass), and radial tree growth were compared among un-manipulated controls, prescribed fire, thinning, thinning followed by fire, and two clear-cut harvested sites. Soil CO2 efflux was reduced by both fire and harvesting (ca. 15%). Soil carbon content (upper 15 cm) was not significantly changed by harvest or fire treatments. Fine root biomass was reduced by clear-cut harvest (60–70%) but not by fire, and the litter layer was reduced 80% by clear-cut harvest and 40% by fire. Thinning effects on tree growth and biomass were concentrated in the first year after treatments, whereas fire effects persisted over the seven-year post-treatment period. Over this period, tree radial growth was increased (25%) by thinning and reduced (12%) by fire. After seven years, tree biomass returned to pre-treatment levels in both fire and thinning treatments; however, biomass and productivity decreased 30%-40% compared to controls when thinning was combined with fire. The clear-cut treatment had the strongest impact, reducing ecosystem carbon stocks and delaying the capacity for carbon uptake. We conclude that post-treatment carbon dynamics and ecosystem recovery time varied with intensity and type of treatments. Consequently, management practices can be selected to minimize ecosystem carbon losses while increasing future carbon uptake, resilience to high severity fire, and climate related stresses. PMID:26918460

Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meloy, Anthony F.

2006-09-01

A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such, an ETA is considered to be a valuable quantitative decision support tool.

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of unknown parameters in hazardous materials transportation risk assessment.

PubMed

Pet-Armacost, J J; Sepulveda, J; Sakude, M

1999-12-01

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and uncertainties. We followed the same approach for each term of risks i.e. hazard, vulnerability, element at risk, exposition. This risk approach can be achieved by a comprehensive use of several artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, which are done through, for example: (1) GIS techniques; (2) FR or T-PDF for qualitatively predicting risks for possible review results; and (3) A Multi-Criteria Evaluation for analyzing weak points. The main advantages of FR or T-PDF involve the ability to express not-fully-formalized knowledge, easy knowledge representation and acquisition, and self updatability. The results show that such an approach points out quite wide zone of uncertainty. REFERENCES Zadeh L.A. 1965 : Fuzzy Sets. Information and Control, 8:338-353.

Documentation for Initial Seismic Hazard Maps for Haiti

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frankel, Arthur; Harmsen, Stephen; Mueller, Charles; Calais, Eric; Haase, Jennifer

2010-01-01

In response to the urgent need for earthquake-hazard information after the tragic disaster caused by the moment magnitude (M) 7.0 January 12, 2010, earthquake, we have constructed initial probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Haiti. These maps are based on the current information we have on fault slip rates and historical and instrumental seismicity. These initial maps will be revised and improved as more data become available. In the short term, more extensive logic trees will be developed to better capture the uncertainty in key parameters. In the longer term, we will incorporate new information on fault parameters and previous large earthquakes obtained from geologic fieldwork. These seismic hazard maps are important for the management of the current crisis and the development of building codes and standards for the rebuilding effort. The boundary between the Caribbean and North American Plates in the Hispaniola region is a complex zone of deformation. The highly oblique ~20 mm/yr convergence between the two plates (DeMets and others, 2000) is partitioned between subduction zones off of the northern and southeastern coasts of Hispaniola and strike-slip faults that transect the northern and southern portions of the island. There are also thrust faults within the island that reflect the compressional component of motion caused by the geometry of the plate boundary. We follow the general methodology developed for the 1996 U.S. national seismic hazard maps and also as implemented in the 2002 and 2008 updates. This procedure consists of adding the seismic hazard calculated from crustal faults, subduction zones, and spatially smoothed seismicity for shallow earthquakes and Wadati-Benioff-zone earthquakes. Each one of these source classes will be described below. The lack of information on faults in Haiti requires many assumptions to be made. These assumptions will need to be revisited and reevaluated as more fieldwork and research are accomplished. We made two sets of maps using different assumptions about site conditions. One set of maps is for a firm-rock site condition (30-m averaged shear-wave velocity, Vs30, of 760 m/s). We also developed hazard maps that contain site amplification based on a grid of Vs30 values estimated from topographic slope. These maps take into account amplification from soils. We stress that these new maps are designed to quantify the hazard for Haiti; they do not consider all the sources of earthquake hazard that affect the Dominican Republic and therefore should not be considered as complete hazard maps for eastern Hispaniola. For example, we have not included hazard from earthquakes in the Mona Passage nor from large earthquakes on the subduction zone interface north of Puerto Rico. Furthermore, they do not capture all the earthquake hazards for eastern Cuba.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for a NPP in the Upper Rhine Graben, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clément, Christophe; Chartier, Thomas; Jomard, Hervé; Baize, Stéphane; Scotti, Oona; Cushing, Edward

2015-04-01

The southern part of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) straddling the border between eastern France and western Germany, presents a relatively important seismic activity for an intraplate area. A magnitude 5 or greater shakes the URG every 25 years and in 1356 a magnitude greater than 6.5 struck the city of Basel. Several potentially active faults have been identified in the area and documented in the French Active Fault Database (web site in construction). These faults are located along the Graben boundaries and also inside the Graben itself, beneath heavily populated areas and critical facilities (including the Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant). These faults are prone to produce earthquakes with magnitude 6 and above. Published regional models and preliminary geomorphological investigations provided provisional assessment of slip rates for the individual faults (0.1-0.001 mm/a) resulting in recurrence time of 10 000 years or greater for magnitude 6+ earthquakes. Using a fault model, ground motion response spectra are calculated for annual frequencies of exceedance (AFE) ranging from 10-4 to 10-8 per year, typical for design basis and probabilistic safety analyses of NPPs. A logic tree is implemented to evaluate uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment. The choice of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and range of slip rate uncertainty are the main sources of seismic hazard variability at the NPP site. In fact, the hazard for AFE lower than 10-4 is mostly controlled by the potentially active nearby Rhine River fault. Compared with areal source zone models, a fault model localizes the hazard around the active faults and changes the shape of the Uniform Hazard Spectrum at the site. Seismic hazard deaggregations are performed to identify the earthquake scenarios (including magnitude, distance and the number of standard deviations from the median ground motion as predicted by GMPEs) that contribute to the exceedance of spectral acceleration for the different AFE levels. These scenarios are finally examined with respect to the seismicity data available in paleoseismic, historic and instrumental catalogues.

Study of root tensile strength of softwood and hardwood tree species: Implications for slope stability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esmaiili, Marzieh; Abdi, Ehsan; Jafary, Mohammad; Majnounian, Baris

2017-04-01

Landslides are known as one of the major natural hazards and often incurring economics and human life losses. The role of tree roots in slope stability is very important, especially when human lives and infrastructure are at risk. The anchorage of roots and improvement of slope stability mainly depend on specific properties of root network systems, such as tensile strength. These properties of the roots which govern the degree of reinforcement are different among tree species. Although, many studies have been conducted about plant biotechnical properties of species, yet there is lack of knowledge on comparing root systems of softwood and hardwood tree species for similar site conditions. Therefore this study was conducted to assess the tensile strength of the root system of Picea abies (softwood species) and Fraxinus excelsior (hardwood species) planted on two forested hillslopes. To this aim, single root specimens were sampled for each species and their tensile strength were then measured in laboratory using a computer controlled Instron Universal Testing Machine. According to the results root tensile strength tends to decrease with diameter according to a power law for both species. Based on analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), a significant difference has been observed in the tensile strength between the two studied species. Also the results showed that the value of mean root tensile strength for Picea abies (19.31 ± 2.64 MPa) was much more than that of Fraxinus excelsior (16.98 ± 1.01 MPa) within all root diameter classes. The data presented in this study may expand the knowledge of biotechnical properties of Picea abies and Fraxinus excelsior, as biomaterial for soil bioengineering.

Energy state affects exploratory behavior of tree sparrows in a group context under differential food-patch distributions.

PubMed

Lee, Ya-Fu; Kuo, Yen-Min; Chu, Wen-Chen

2016-01-01

When facing a novel situation, animals can retreat or leave to avoid risks, but will miss potential resources and opportunities. Alternatively they may reduce environmental uncertainty by exploration, while risking no energy rewards and exposure to hazards, and use the information retrieved for subsequent decision making. When exploring, however, animals may adopt different tactics according to individual states. We tested that energy states will affect exploratory behavior by experimenting with wild-caught untrained Eurasian tree sparrows ( Passer montanus ) in fasted or fed states exploring in a novel space with hidden food supply in different patch distribution patterns. Our data revealed that fasted sparrows risked being earlier explorers more often, initiated more exploratory bouts before patches were found, and stayed longer on the ground under both patch patterns. Fasted sparrows discovered more patches and consumed more food than fed sparrows in dispersed, but not necessary so in clumped, patch patterns; whereas fed birds also increased patch finding to a certain level in dispersed patterns. Sparrows of both energy states, however, did not differ in feeding rates in either patch pattern. Exploratory behavior of tree sparrows is state-dependent, which supports our prediction that birds with an energy shortage will be risk-prone and explore more readily. Our study also indicates a game nature of tree sparrow exploratory behavior in a group context when explorers are in different energy states and are exposed to different patch distributions. Birds of lower energy state adopting an active exploring tactic may be favored by obtaining higher energy gains in dispersed patch patterns with lower patch richness. More satiated birds, however, achieved a similar feeding rate by lowered exposure time.

Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

Application of ISO22000, failure mode, and effect analysis (FMEA) cause and effect diagrams and pareto in conjunction with HACCP and risk assessment for processing of pastry products.

PubMed

Varzakas, Theodoros H

2011-09-01

The Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model has been applied for the risk assessment of pastry processing. A tentative approach of FMEA application to the pastry industry was attempted in conjunction with ISO22000. Preliminary Hazard Analysis was used to analyze and predict the occurring failure modes in a food chain system (pastry processing plant), based on the functions, characteristics, and/or interactions of the ingredients or the processes, upon which the system depends. Critical Control points have been identified and implemented in the cause and effect diagram (also known as Ishikawa, tree diagram, and fishbone diagram). In this work a comparison of ISO22000 analysis with HACCP is carried out over pastry processing and packaging. However, the main emphasis was put on the quantification of risk assessment by determining the Risk Priority Number (RPN) per identified processing hazard. Storage of raw materials and storage of final products at -18°C followed by freezing were the processes identified as the ones with the highest RPN (225, 225, and 144 respectively) and corrective actions were undertaken. Following the application of corrective actions, a second calculation of RPN values was carried out leading to considerably lower values (below the upper acceptable limit of 130). It is noteworthy that the application of Ishikawa (Cause and Effect or Tree diagram) led to converging results thus corroborating the validity of conclusions derived from risk assessment and FMEA. Therefore, the incorporation of FMEA analysis within the ISO22000 system of a pastry processing industry is considered imperative.

The application of quality risk management to the bacterial endotoxins test: use of hazard analysis and critical control points.

PubMed

Annalaura, Carducci; Giulia, Davini; Stefano, Ceccanti

2013-01-01

Risk analysis is widely used in the pharmaceutical industry to manage production processes, validation activities, training, and other activities. Several methods of risk analysis are available (for example, failure mode and effects analysis, fault tree analysis), and one or more should be chosen and adapted to the specific field where they will be applied. Among the methods available, hazard analysis and critical control points (HACCP) is a methodology that has been applied since the 1960s, and whose areas of application have expanded over time from food to the pharmaceutical industry. It can be easily and successfully applied to several processes because its main feature is the identification, assessment, and control of hazards. It can be also integrated with other tools, such as fishbone diagram and flowcharting. The aim of this article is to show how HACCP can be used to manage an analytical process, propose how to conduct the necessary steps, and provide data templates necessary to document and useful to follow current good manufacturing practices. In the quality control process, risk analysis is a useful tool for enhancing the uniformity of technical choices and their documented rationale. Accordingly, it allows for more effective and economical laboratory management, is capable of increasing the reliability of analytical results, and enables auditors and authorities to better understand choices that have been made. The aim of this article is to show how hazard analysis and critical control points can be used to manage bacterial endotoxins testing and other analytical processes in a formal, clear, and detailed manner.

A methodology to estimate the future extent of dryland salinity in the southwest of Western Australia.

PubMed

Caccetta, Peter; Dunne, Robert; George, Richard; McFarlane, Don

2010-01-01

In the southwestern agricultural region of Western Australia, the clearing of the original perennial vegetation for annual vegetation-based dryland agriculture has lead to rising saline groundwater levels. This has had effects such as reduced productivity of agricultural land, death of native vegetation, reduced stream water quality and infrastructure damage. These effects have been observed at many locations within the 18 million ha of cleared land. This has lead to efforts to quantify, in a spatially explicit way, the historical and likely future extent of the area affected, with the view to informing management decisions. This study was conducted to determine whether the likely future extent of the area affected by dryland salinity could be estimated by means of developing spatially explicit maps for use in management and planning. We derived catchment-related variables from digital elevation models and perennial vegetation presence/absence maps. We then used these variables to predict the salinity hazard extent by applying a combination of decision tree classification and morphological image processing algorithms. Sufficient objective data such as groundwater depth, its rate of rise, and its concentration of dissolved salts were generally not available, so we used regional expert opinion (derived from the limited existing studies on salinity hazard extent) as training and validation data. We obtained an 87% agreement in the salinity hazard extent estimated by this method compared with the validation data, and conclude that the maps are sufficient for planning. We estimate that the salinity hazard extent is 29.7% of the agricultural land.

Experimental Concepts for Testing Seismic Hazard Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Jordan, T. H.

2015-12-01

Seismic hazard analysis is the primary interface through which useful information about earthquake rupture and wave propagation is delivered to society. To account for the randomness (aleatory variability) and limited knowledge (epistemic uncertainty) of these natural processes, seismologists must formulate and test hazard models using the concepts of probability. In this presentation, we will address the scientific objections that have been raised over the years against probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Owing to the paucity of observations, we must rely on expert opinion to quantify the epistemic uncertainties of PSHA models (e.g., in the weighting of individual models from logic-tree ensembles of plausible models). The main theoretical issue is a frequentist critique: subjectivity is immeasurable; ergo, PSHA models cannot be objectively tested against data; ergo, they are fundamentally unscientific. We have argued (PNAS, 111, 11973-11978) that the Bayesian subjectivity required for casting epistemic uncertainties can be bridged with the frequentist objectivity needed for pure significance testing through "experimental concepts." An experimental concept specifies collections of data, observed and not yet observed, that are judged to be exchangeable (i.e., with a joint distribution independent of the data ordering) when conditioned on a set of explanatory variables. We illustrate, through concrete examples, experimental concepts useful in the testing of PSHA models for ontological errors in the presence of aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty. In particular, we describe experimental concepts that lead to exchangeable binary sequences that are statistically independent but not identically distributed, showing how the Bayesian concept of exchangeability generalizes the frequentist concept of experimental repeatability. We also address the issue of testing PSHA models using spatially correlated data.

Integrated Safety Risk Reduction Approach to Enhancing Human-Rated Spaceflight Safety

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikula, J. F. Kip

2005-12-01

This paper explores and defines the current accepted concept and philosophy of safety improvement based on a Reliability enhancement (called here Reliability Enhancement Based Safety Theory [REBST]). In this theory a Reliability calculation is used as a measure of the safety achieved on the program. This calculation may be based on a math model or a Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) of the system, or on an Event Tree Analysis (ETA) of the system's operational mission sequence. In each case, the numbers used in this calculation are hardware failure rates gleaned from past similar programs. As part of this paper, a fictional but representative case study is provided that helps to illustrate the problems and inaccuracies of this approach to safety determination. Then a safety determination and enhancement approach based on hazard, worst case analysis, and safety risk determination (called here Worst Case Based Safety Theory [WCBST]) is included. This approach is defined and detailed using the same example case study as shown in the REBST case study. In the end it is concluded that an approach combining the two theories works best to reduce Safety Risk.

Transverse stresses and modes of failure in tree branches and other beams

PubMed Central

Ennos, A. R.; van Casteren, A.

2010-01-01

The longitudinal stresses in beams subjected to bending also set up transverse stresses within them; they compress the cross section when the beam's curvature is being increased and stretch it when its curvature is being reduced. Analysis shows that transverse stresses rise to a maximum at the neutral axis and increase with both the bending moment applied and the curvature of the beam. These stresses can qualitatively explain the fracture behaviour of tree branches. Curved ‘hazard beams’ that are being straightened split down the middle because of the low transverse tensile strength of wood. By contrast, straight branches of light wood buckle when they are bent because of its low transverse compressive strength. Branches of denser wood break, but the low transverse tensile strength diverts the crack longitudinally when the fracture has only run half-way across the beam, to produce their characteristic ‘greenstick fracture’. The bones of young mammals and uniaxially reinforced composite beams may also be prone to greenstick fracture because of their lower transverse tensile strength. PMID:20018786

Regional reconstruction of flash flood history in the Guadarrama range (Central System, Spain).

PubMed

Rodriguez-Morata, C; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J A; Trappmann, D; Beniston, M; Stoffel, M

2016-04-15

Flash floods are a common natural hazard in Mediterranean mountain environments and responsible for serious economic and human disasters. The study of flash flood dynamics and their triggers is a key issue; however, the retrieval of historical data is often limited in mountain regions as a result of short time series and the systematic lack of historical data. In this study, we attempt to overcome data deficiency by supplementing existing records with dendrogeomorphic techniques which were employed in seven mountain streams along the northern slopes of the Guadarrama Mountain range. Here we present results derived from the tree-ring analysis of 117 samples from 63 Pinus sylvestris L. trees injured by flash floods, to complement existing flash flood records covering the last ~200years and comment on their hydro-meteorological triggers. To understand the varying number of reconstructed flash flood events in each of the catchments, we also performed a comparative analysis of geomorphic catchment characteristics, land use evolution and forest management. Furthermore, we discuss the limitations of dendrogeomorphic techniques applied in managed forests. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Supplement Analysis for the Transmission System Vegetation Management Program FEIS (DOE/EIS-0285/SA-59) - Chehalis Covington/ Raver Paul / Paul Alston

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tippetts, Greg

2002-04-19

Vegetation Management along the Chehalis Covington/ Raver Paul / Paul Alston 230 and 500 kV Transmission line Corridor ROW 48/2 to 70/6 and 1/1 to 13/4. The proposed work will be accomplished in the indicated sections of the transmission line corridor with a corridor width of 250 to 442 feet. BPA proposes to clear unwanted vegetation in the rights-of-ways and around tower structures that may impede the operation and maintenance of the subject transmission lines and access roads, including Reclaim and Danger Trees. BPA plans to conduct vegetation control with the goal of removing tall growing vegetation that is currentlymore » or will soon be a hazard to the transmission line. BPA’s overall goal is to have low-growing plant communities along the rights-of-way to control the development of potentially threatening vegetation. All work will be executed in accordance with the National Electrical Safety Code and BPA standards. Danger and “C” trees and chemical treatment contract work is scheduled to begin April 29, 2002.« less

Measuring mercury and other elemental components in tree rings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillan, C.; Hollerman, W.A.; Doyle, T.W.; Lewis, T.E.

2004-01-01

There has been considerable interest in measuring heavy metal pollution, such as mercury, using tree ring analysis. Since 1970, this method has provided a historical snapshot of pollutant concentrations near hazardous waste sites. Traditional methods of analysis have long been used with heavy metal pollutants such as mercury. These methods, such as atomic fluorescence and laser ablation, are sometimes time consuming and expensive to implement. In recent years, ion beam techniques, such as Particle Induced X-Ray Emission (PIXE), have been used to measure large numbers of elements. Most of the existing research in this area has been completed for low to medium atomic number pollutants, such as titanium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. Due to the reduction of sensitivity, it is often difficult or impossible to use traditional low energy (few MeV) PIXE analysis for pollutants with large atomic numbers. For example, the PIXE detection limit for mercury was recently measured to be about 1 ppm for a spiked Southern Magnolia wood sample [ref. 1]. This presentation will compare PIXE and standard chemical concentration results for a variety of wood samples.

Measuring mercury and other elemental components in tree rings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gillan, C.; Hollerman, W.A.; Doyle, T.W.; Lewis, T.E.

2004-01-01

There has been considerable interest in measuring heavy metal pollution, such as mercury, using tree ring analysis. Since 1970, this method has provided a historical snapshot of pollutant concentrations near hazardous waste sites. Traditional methods of analysis have long been used with heavy metal pollutants such as mercury. These methods, such as atomic fluorescence and laser ablation, are sometimes time consuming and expensive to implement. In recent years, ion beam techniques, such as Particle Induced X-Ray Emission (PIXE), have been used to measure large numbers of elements. Most of the existing research in this area has been completed for low to medium atomic number pollutants, such as titanium, cobalt, nickel, and copper. Due to the reduction of sensitivity, it is often difficult or impossible to use traditional low energy (few MeV) PIXE analysis for pollutants with large atomic numbers. For example, the PIXE detection limit for mercury was recently measured to be about 1 ppm for a spiked Southern Magnolia wood sample [ref. 1]. This presentation will compare PIXE and standard chemical concentration results for a variety of wood samples. Copyright 2004 by ISA.

Exploring the full natural variability of eruption sizes within probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selva, Jacopo; Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Tonini, Roberto; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni

2014-05-01

The intrinsic uncertainty and variability associated to the size of next eruption strongly affects short to long-term tephra hazard assessment. Often, emergency plans are established accounting for the effects of one or a few representative scenarios (meant as a specific combination of eruptive size and vent position), selected with subjective criteria. On the other hand, probabilistic hazard assessments (PHA) consistently explore the natural variability of such scenarios. PHA for tephra dispersal needs the definition of eruptive scenarios (usually by grouping possible eruption sizes and vent positions in classes) with associated probabilities, a meteorological dataset covering a representative time period, and a tephra dispersal model. PHA results from combining simulations considering different volcanological and meteorological conditions through a weight given by their specific probability of occurrence. However, volcanological parameters, such as erupted mass, eruption column height and duration, bulk granulometry, fraction of aggregates, typically encompass a wide range of values. Because of such a variability, single representative scenarios or size classes cannot be adequately defined using single values for the volcanological inputs. Here we propose a method that accounts for this within-size-class variability in the framework of Event Trees. The variability of each parameter is modeled with specific Probability Density Functions, and meteorological and volcanological inputs are chosen by using a stratified sampling method. This procedure allows avoiding the bias introduced by selecting single representative scenarios and thus neglecting most of the intrinsic eruptive variability. When considering within-size-class variability, attention must be paid to appropriately weight events falling within the same size class. While a uniform weight to all the events belonging to a size class is the most straightforward idea, this implies a strong dependence on the thresholds dividing classes: under this choice, the largest event of a size class has a much larger weight than the smallest event of the subsequent size class. In order to overcome this problem, in this study, we propose an innovative solution able to smoothly link the weight variability within each size class to the variability among the size classes through a common power law, and, simultaneously, respect the probability of different size classes conditional to the occurrence of an eruption. Embedding this procedure into the Bayesian Event Tree scheme enables for tephra fall PHA, quantified through hazard curves and maps representing readable results applicable in planning risk mitigation actions, and for the quantification of its epistemic uncertainties. As examples, we analyze long-term tephra fall PHA at Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei. We integrate two tephra dispersal models (the analytical HAZMAP and the numerical FALL3D) into BET_VH. The ECMWF reanalysis dataset are used for exploring different meteorological conditions. The results obtained clearly show that PHA accounting for the whole natural variability significantly differs from that based on a representative scenarios, as in volcanic hazard common practice.

JANNAF 36th Combustion Subcommittee Meeting. Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fry, Ronald S. (Editor); Gannaway, Mary T. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Volume 11, the second of three volumes is a compilation of 33 unclassified/unlimited-distribution technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 36th Combustion Subcommittee held jointly with the 24 Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee and 18th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee. The meeting was held on 18-21 October 1999 at NASA Kennedy Space Center and The DoubleTree Oceanfront Hotel, Cocoa Beach, Florida. Topics covered include gun solid propellant ignition and combustion, Electrothermal Chemical (ETC) propulsion phenomena, liquid propellant gun combustion and barrel erosion, gas phase propellant combustion, kinetic and decomposition phenomena and liquid and hybrid propellant combustion behavior.

JANNAF 36th Combustion Subcommittee Meeting. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fry, Ronald S. (Editor); Gannaway, Mary T. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Volume 1, the first of three volumes is a compilation of 47 unclassified/unlimited-distribution technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 36th Combustion Subcommittee held jointly with the 24th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee and 18th Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee. The meeting was held on 18-21 October 1999 at NASA Kennedy Space Center and The DoubleTree Oceanfront Hotel, Cocoa Beach, Florida. Solid phase propellant combustion topics covered in this volume include cookoff phenomena in the pre- and post-ignition phases, solid rocket motor and gun propellant combustion, aluminized composite propellant combustion, combustion modeling and combustion instability and instability measurement techniques.

Analysis of LNG peakshaving-facility release-prevention systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pelto, P.J.; Baker, E.G.; Powers, T.B.

1982-05-01

The purpose of this study is to provide an analysis of release prevention systems for a reference LNG peakshaving facility. An overview assessment of the reference peakshaving facility, which preceeded this effort, identified 14 release scenarios which are typical of the potential hazards involved in the operation of LNG peakshaving facilities. These scenarios formed the basis for this more detailed study. Failure modes and effects analysis and fault tree analysis were used to estimate the expected frequency of each release scenario for the reference peakshaving facility. In addition, the effectiveness of release prevention, release detection, and release control systems weremore » evaluated.« less

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gülerce, Zeynep; Buğra Soyman, Kadir; Güner, Barış; Kaymakci, Nuretdin

2017-12-01

This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

A tree-based statistical classification algorithm (CHAID) for identifying variables responsible for the occurrence of faecal indicator bacteria during waterworks operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bichler, Andrea; Neumaier, Arnold; Hofmann, Thilo

2014-11-01

Microbial contamination of groundwater used for drinking water can affect public health and is of major concern to local water authorities and water suppliers. Potential hazards need to be identified in order to protect raw water resources. We propose a non-parametric data mining technique for exploring the presence of total coliforms (TC) in a groundwater abstraction well and its relationship to readily available, continuous time series of hydrometric monitoring parameters (seven year records of precipitation, river water levels, and groundwater heads). The original monitoring parameters were used to create an extensive generic dataset of explanatory variables by considering different accumulation or averaging periods, as well as temporal offsets of the explanatory variables. A classification tree based on the Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) recursive partitioning algorithm revealed statistically significant relationships between precipitation and the presence of TC in both a production well and a nearby monitoring well. Different secondary explanatory variables were identified for the two wells. Elevated water levels and short-term water table fluctuations in the nearby river were found to be associated with TC in the observation well. The presence of TC in the production well was found to relate to elevated groundwater heads and fluctuations in groundwater levels. The generic variables created proved useful for increasing significance levels. The tree-based model was used to predict the occurrence of TC on the basis of hydrometric variables.

Allergenic potential of novel foods.

PubMed

Meredith, Clive

2005-11-01

Concerns have been expressed that the introduction of novel foods into the diet might lead to the development of new food allergies in consumers. Novel foods can be conveniently divided into GM and non-GM categories. Decision-tree approaches (e.g. International Life Sciences Institute-International Food Biotechnology Council and WHO/FAO) to assess the allergenic potential of GM foods were developed following the discovery, during product development, of the allergenic potential of GM soyabean expressing a gene encoding a storage protein from Brazil nut (Bertolletia excelsa). Within these decision trees considerations include: the source of the transgene; amino acid homology with known allergens; cross-reactivity with IgE from food-allergic individuals; resistance to proteolysis; prediction using animal models of food allergy. Such decision trees are under constant review as new knowledge and improved models emerge, but they provide a useful framework for the assessment of the allergenic potential of GM foods. For novel non-GM foods the assessment of allergenic potential is more subjective; some foods or food ingredients will need no assessment other than a robust protein assay to demonstrate the absence of protein. Where protein is present in the novel non-GM food, hazard and risk assessments need to be made in terms of the quantity of protein that might be consumed, the identity of individual protein components and their relationships to known food allergens. Where necessary, this assessment would extend to serum screening for potential cross-reactivities, skin-prick tests in previously-sensitised individuals and double-blind placebo-controlled food challenges.

Effect of typhoon disturbance on soil respiration dynamic in a tropical broadleaves plantation in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Po-Neng; Yu, Jui-Chu; Lai, Yen-Jen

2017-04-01

Global forests contain 69% of total carbon stored in forest soil and litter. But the carbon storage ability and release rate of warming gases of forest soil also affect global climate change. Reforestation is one of the best solutions to mitigate warming gases release and to store in soil. Typhoon is one of the most hazards to disturb forest ecosystem and change carbon cycle. Typhoon disturbance is also affect soil carbon cycle such as soil respiration, carbon storage. Therefore, the objective of this study is to clarify the effect of typhoon disturbance on soil respiration dynamic in a tropical broadleaves plantation in southern Taiwan. Fourteen broadleaved tree species were planted in 2002-2005. Twelves continuous soil respiration chambers was divided two treatments (trench and non-trench) and observed since 2011 to 2014. The soil belongs to Entisol with over 60% of sandstone. The soil pH is 5.5 with low base cations because of high sand percentage. Forest biometric such as tree high, DBH, litterfall was measured in 2011-2014. Data showed that the accumulation amount of litterfall was highest in December to February and lowest in June. Soil respiration was related with season variation in research site. Soil temperature showed significantly exponential related with soil respiration in research site (p<0.001).However, soil respiration showed significantly negative relationship with total amount of litterfall (p<0.001), suggesting that the tree was still young and did not reach crown closure.

Standoff detection and classification of bacteria by multispectral laser-induced fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duschek, Frank; Fellner, Lea; Gebert, Florian; Grünewald, Karin; Köhntopp, Anja; Kraus, Marian; Mahnke, Peter; Pargmann, Carsten; Tomaso, Herbert; Walter, Arne

2017-04-01

Biological hazardous substances such as certain fungi and bacteria represent a high risk for the broad public if fallen into wrong hands. Incidents based on bio-agents are commonly considered to have unpredictable and complex consequences for first responders and people. The impact of such an event can be minimized by an early and fast detection of hazards. The presented approach is based on optical standoff detection applying laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) on bacteria. The LIF bio-detector has been designed for outdoor operation at standoff distances from 20 m up to more than 100 m. The detector acquires LIF spectral data for two different excitation wavelengths (280 and 355 nm) which can be used to classify suspicious samples. A correlation analysis and spectral classification by a decision tree is used to discriminate between the measured samples. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the system, suspensions of the low-risk and non-pathogenic bacteria Bacillus thuringiensis, Bacillus atrophaeus, Bacillus subtilis, Brevibacillus brevis, Micrococcus luteus, Oligella urethralis, Paenibacillus polymyxa and Escherichia coli (K12) have been investigated with the system, resulting in a discrimination accuracy of about 90%.

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Santoyo, M. A.; Luzón, F.; Benito, B.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; García-Jerez, A.

2012-08-01

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty ( T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity ( T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA ( T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

Identification of Evacuation Routes in Tacloban City using Geographic Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Jerico; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth

2016-04-01

The Philippines is the second most at risk to natural hazards according to the 2014 World Risk Report. On 8 November 2013, category 5 Typhoon Haiyan crossed the central region of the Philippines with maximum sustained wind reaching 315 kph. Considered as one of the strongest typhoons that made landfall in recorded history, Typhoon Haiyan caused USD 8 billion damage to properties, 6,293 deaths, 28,689 injured and 1,061 missing persons. Tacloban City, located in the north-eastern part of the island of Leyte in Eastern Visayas region, is one of the area most devastated by Typhoon Haiyan. The city is susceptible to other natural hazards given its geography, topography and geology. This condition emphasizes the need for preventive measures to avoid further loss of lives and destruction to properties. Evacuation is a mitigating strategy which involves the process of moving people from dangerous places to safer locations. Using Geographic Information System (GIS), a multi-hazard map of Tacloban City was created to determine safe areas for evacuation centers. The optimal route for evacuation was identified using ArcGIS Network Analyst's routing solver based on Dijkstra's algorithm. The medium of transportation used in the analysis is by foot with an average speed of 5.0 kph. Furthermore, the study assumes that all roads are passable and fully functional during the travel period and that there are no structures, trees and other debris that may act as road blockage. The study can be used as a reference in hazard assessment for disaster risk management and evacuation planning. This can be further improved by incorporating behaviour of the affected population and other socio-economic factors, different modes of transportation and detailed analysis of topography.

Local SPTHA through tsunami inundation simulations: a test case for two coastal critical infrastructures in the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volpe, M.; Selva, J.; Tonini, R.; Romano, F.; Lorito, S.; Brizuela, B.; Argyroudis, S.; Salzano, E.; Piatanesi, A.

2016-12-01

Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) is a methodology to assess the exceedance probability for different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region in a given time period, due to a seismic source. A large amount of high-resolution inundation simulations is typically required for taking into account the full variability of potential seismic sources and their slip distributions. Starting from regional SPTHA offshore results, the computational cost can be reduced by considering for inundation calculations only a subset of `important' scenarios. We here use a method based on an event tree for the treatment of the seismic source aleatory variability; a cluster analysis on the offshore results to define the important sources; epistemic uncertainty treatment through an ensemble modeling approach. We consider two target sites in the Mediterranean (Milazzo, Italy, and Thessaloniki, Greece) where coastal (non nuclear) critical infrastructures (CIs) are located. After performing a regional SPTHA covering the whole Mediterranean, for each target site, few hundreds of representative scenarios are filtered out of all the potential seismic sources and the tsunami inundation is explicitly modeled, obtaining a site-specific SPTHA, with a complete characterization of the tsunami hazard in terms of flow depth and velocity time histories. Moreover, we also explore the variability of SPTHA at the target site accounting for coseismic deformation (i.e. uplift or subsidence) due to near field sources located in very shallow water. The results are suitable and will be applied for subsequent multi-hazard risk analysis for the CIs. These applications have been developed in the framework of the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, EC FP7 ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389) projects, and of the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Smallholder Food and Water Security in the Face of Climatic Stress and the Coffee Leaf Rust: Lessons from Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, I. T.; Bacon, C. M.; Sundstrom, W.

2015-12-01

Smallholder farmers in Nicaragua and throughout much of Central America preserve forest biodiversity and contribute to the sustainable production of coffee and other crops while, paradoxically, they themselves must cope with recurring periods of seasonal hunger. Smallholder food and water security in the region is affected by hurricanes, periodic drought events, climatic changes, an on-going outbreak of the coffee leaf rust, and fluctuations in food prices. Using regression analysis, our research examines what factors strengthened resilience to these hazards at the household level over the 1981 - 2014 time period. To this end, we integrate qualitative research on coping responses and local institutions, a participatory survey of 368 households, and an analysis of hydro-climatic data. Our results indicate that coping responses to the coffee leaf rust outbreak and the 2014 drought are comparable in severity to those used to endure Hurricane Mitch in 1998, and a severe 2009 drought. Higher smallholder resilience to stresses affecting food and water security is associated with larger farms, off-farm employment, more on-farm food production, higher numbers of fruit trees, and greater coffee harvests. Households that reported more severe coping responses to hazards earlier in the study period tended to be more strongly impacted by later hazards and reported generally greater seasonal hunger. Affiliation with local farmer-to-farmer institutions prioritizing either subsistence-oriented production or sales to international fair-trade markets did not correlate strongly with coping responses; however, subsistence-oriented institutions promote several resilience-enhancing practices. Lessons learned by adapting to past hazards may be used to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies for smallholders under continued climate variability and change.

Revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Ullah, Shahid; Parolai, Stefano; Walker, Richard; Pittore, Massimiliano; Free, Matthew; Fourniadis, Yannis; Villiani, Manuela; Sousa, Luis; Ormukov, Cholponbek; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

As part of a seismic risk study sponsored by the World Bank, a revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic has been produced, using the OpenQuake-engine developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). In this project, an earthquake catalogue spanning a period from 250 BCE to 2014 was compiled and processed through spatial and temporal declustering tools. The territory of the Kyrgyz Republic was divided into 31 area sources defined based on local seismicity, including a total area covering 200 km from the border. The results are presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). In addition, macroseismic intensity estimates, making use of recent intensity prediction equations, were also provided, given that this measure is still widely used in Central Asia. In order to accommodate the associated epistemic uncertainty, three ground motion prediction equations were used in a logic tree structure. A set of representative earthquake scenarios were further identified based on historical data and the nature of the considered faults. The resulting hazard map, as expected, follows the country's seismicity, with the highest levels of hazard in the northeast, south and southwest of the country, with an elevated part around the centre. When considering PGA, the hazard is slightly greater for major urban centres than in previous works (e.g., Abdrakhmatov et al., 2003), although the macroseismic intensity estimates are less than previous studies, e.g., Ulomov (1999). For the scenario assessments, the examples that most affect the urban centres assessed are the Issyk Ata fault (in particular for Bishkek), the Chilik and Kemin faults (in particular Balykchy and Karakol), the Ferghana Valley fault system (in particular Osh, Jalah-Abad and Uzgen), the Oinik Djar fault (Naryn) and the central and western Talas-Ferghanafaukt (Talas). Finally, while site effects (in particular, those dependent on the upper-most geological structure) have an obvious effect on the final hazard level, this is still not fully accounted for, even if a nation-wide first order Vs30 model (i.e., from the USGS) is available. Abdrakhmatov, K., Havenith, H.-B., Delvaux, D., Jongsmans, D. and Trefois, P. (2003) Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia), Journal of Seismology, 7, 203-220. Ulomov, V.I., The GSHAP Region 7 working group (1999) Seismic hazard of Northern Eurasia, Annali di Geofisica, 42, 1012-1038.

Improving the flash flood frequency analysis applying dendrogeomorphological evidences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Villanueva, V.; Ballesteros, J. A.; Bodoque, J. M.; Stoffel, M.; Bollschweiler, M.; Díez-Herrero, A.

2009-09-01

Flash floods are one of the natural hazards that cause major damages worldwide. Especially in Mediterranean areas they provoke high economic losses every year. In mountain areas with high stream gradients, floods events are characterized by extremely high flow and debris transport rates. Flash flood analysis in mountain areas presents specific scientific challenges. On one hand, there is a lack of information on precipitation and discharge due to a lack of spatially well distributed gauge stations with long records. On the other hand, gauge stations may not record correctly during extreme events when they are damaged or the discharge exceeds the recordable level. In this case, no systematic data allows improvement of the understanding of the spatial and temporal occurrence of the process. Since historic documentation is normally scarce or even completely missing in mountain areas, tree-ring analysis can provide an alternative approach. Flash floods may influence trees in different ways: (1) tilting of the stem through the unilateral pressure of the flowing mass or individual boulders; (2) root exposure through erosion of the banks; (3) injuries and scars caused by boulders and wood transported in the flow; (4) decapitation of the stem and resulting candelabra growth through the severe impact of boulders; (5) stem burial through deposition of material. The trees react to these disturbances with specific growth changes such as abrupt change of the yearly increment and anatomical changes like reaction wood or callus tissue. In this study, we sampled 90 cross sections and 265 increment cores of trees heavily affected by past flash floods in order to date past events and to reconstruct recurrence intervals in two torrent channels located in the Spanish Central System. The first study site is located along the Pelayo River, a torrent in natural conditions. Based on the external disturbances of trees and their geomorphological position, 114 Pinus pinaster (Ait.) influenced by flash flood events were sampled using an increment borer. For each tree sampled, additional information were recorded including the geographical position (GPS measure), the geomorphological situation based on a detailed geomorphological map, the social position within neighbouring trees, a description of the external disturbances and information on tree diameter, tree height and the position of the cores extracted. 265 cores were collected. In the laboratory, the 265 samples were analyzed using the standard methods: surface preparation, counting of tree rings as well as measuring of ring widths using a digital LINTAB positioning table and TSAP 4.6 software. Increment curves of the disturbed trees were then crossdated with a reference chronology in order to correct faulty tree-ring series derived from disturbed samples and to determine initiation of abrupt growth suppression or release. The age of the trees in this field site is between 50 and 100 years old. In the field most of the trees were tilted (93 %) and showed exposed roots (64 %). In the laboratory, growth suppressions were detected in 165 samples. Based on the number of trees showing disturbances, the intensity of the disturbance and the spatial distribution of the trees in the field, seven well represented events were dated for the last 50 years: 2005, 2000, 1996, 1976, 1973, 1966 and 1963. The second field site was a reach of 2 km length along the Arenal River, where the stream is channelized. Here stumps from previously felled trees could be analyzed directly in the field. 100 Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Fraxinus angustifolia (Vahl.) cross sections were investigated in order to date internal wounds. Different carpenter tools, sanding paper and magnifying glasses were used to count tree rings and to date the wounds in the field. In addition to the dating in the field, 22 cross sections were sampled and analyzed in the laboratory using the standard methods. The age of the trees ranges between 30 and 50 years. Based on the injuries dated in the field and in the laboratory, and based on the location of the trees, 8 main events were dated for the last 30 years: 2005, 2003, 2000, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1993 and 1978. Additional results are in progress, such as the amount of rainfall responsible for the triggering of the events, estimation of the magnitude, and the influence of the channelization in the case of the Arenal River. The strength of Dendrogeomorphology in flood analysis has been demonstrated, especially in areas where the lack of historical documents, rainfall and flow data limits the use of traditional methods.

Development of direct multi-hazard susceptibility assessment method for post-earthquake reconstruction planning in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mavrouli, Olga; Rana, Sohel; van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Jianqiang

2017-04-01

After the devastating 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal, reconstruction activities have been delayed considerably, due to many reasons, of a political, organizational and technical nature. Due to the widespread occurrence of co-seismic landslides, and the expectation that these may be aggravated or re-activated in future years during the intense monsoon periods, there is a need to evaluate for thousands of sites whether these are suited for reconstruction. In this evaluation multi-hazards, such as rockfall, landslides, debris flow, and flashfloods should be taken into account. The application of indirect knowledge-based, data-driven or physically-based approaches is not suitable due to several reasons. Physically-based models generally require a large number of parameters, for which data is not available. Data-driven, statistical methods, depend on historical information, which is less useful after the occurrence of a major event, such as an earthquake. Besides, they would lead to unacceptable levels of generalization, as the analysis is done based on rather general causal factor maps. The same holds for indirect knowledge-driven methods. However, location-specific hazards analysis is required using a simple method that can be used by many people at the local level. In this research, a direct scientific method was developed where local level technical people can easily and quickly assess the post-earthquake multi hazards following a decision tree approach, using an app on a smartphone or tablet. The methods assumes that a central organization, such as the Department of Soil Conservation and Watershed Management, generates spatial information beforehand that is used in the direct assessment at a certain location. Pre-earthquake, co-seismic and post-seismic landslide inventories are generated through the interpretation of Google Earth multi-temporal images, using anaglyph methods. Spatial data, such as Digital Elevation Models, land cover maps, and geological maps are used in a GIS to generate Terrain Units in a semi-automated manner, which are further edited using stereo-image interpretation. Source areas for rockfall and debris flows are outlined from the factor maps, and historical inventory, and regional scale empirical runout models are used to define areas that might be affected. This data is then used in the field in an application that guides the user through the decision tree by asking a number of questions, which can be answered by using the existing data, and by direct field observations. The method was applied in a part of Rasuwa district, which was seriously affected by co-seismic and post-seismic mass movements, leading to the evacuation of a number of village, and temporary closure of a number of hydropower construction projects.

Modeling and Prediction of Wildfire Hazard in Southern California, Integration of Models with Imaging Spectrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Dar A.; Church, Richard; Ustin, Susan L.; Brass, James A. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Large urban wildfires throughout southern California have caused billions of dollars of damage and significant loss of life over the last few decades. Rapid urban growth along the wildland interface, high fuel loads and a potential increase in the frequency of large fires due to climatic change suggest that the problem will worsen in the future. Improved fire spread prediction and reduced uncertainty in assessing fire hazard would be significant, both economically and socially. Current problems in the modeling of fire spread include the role of plant community differences, spatial heterogeneity in fuels and spatio-temporal changes in fuels. In this research, we evaluated the potential of Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) data for providing improved maps of wildfire fuel properties. Analysis concentrated in two areas of Southern California, the Santa Monica Mountains and Santa Barbara Front Range. Wildfire fuel information can be divided into four basic categories: fuel type, fuel load (live green and woody biomass), fuel moisture and fuel condition (live vs senesced fuels). To map fuel type, AVIRIS data were used to map vegetation species using Multiple Endmember Spectral Mixture Analysis (MESMA) and Binary Decision Trees. Green live biomass and canopy moisture were mapped using AVIRIS through analysis of the 980 nm liquid water absorption feature and compared to alternate measures of moisture and field measurements. Woody biomass was mapped using L and P band cross polarimetric data acquired in 1998 and 1999. Fuel condition was mapped using spectral mixture analysis to map green vegetation (green leaves), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV; stems, wood and litter), shade and soil. Summaries describing the potential of hyperspectral and SAR data for fuel mapping are provided by Roberts et al. and Dennison et al. To utilize remotely sensed data to assess fire hazard, fuel-type maps were translated into standard fuel models accessible to the FARSITE fire spread simulator. The FARSITE model and BEHAVE are considered industry standards for fire behavior analysis. Anderson level fuels map, generated using a binary decision tree classifier are available for multiple dates in the Santa Monica Mountains and at least one date for Santa Barbara. Fuel maps that will fill in the areas between Santa Barbara and the Santa Monica Mountains study sites are in progress, as part of a NASA Regional Earth Science Application Center, the Southern California Wildfire Hazard Center. Species-level maps, were supplied to fire managing agencies (Los Angeles County Fire, California Department of Forestry). Research results were published extensively in the refereed and non-refereed literature. Educational outreach included funding of several graduate students, undergraduate intern training and an article featured in the California Alliance for Minorities Program (CAMP) Quarterly Journal.

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA

PubMed Central

Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-01-01

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants. PMID:28665325

Risk Analysis of a Fuel Storage Terminal Using HAZOP and FTA.

PubMed

Fuentes-Bargues, José Luis; González-Cruz, Mª Carmen; González-Gaya, Cristina; Baixauli-Pérez, Mª Piedad

2017-06-30

The size and complexity of industrial chemical plants, together with the nature of the products handled, means that an analysis and control of the risks involved is required. This paper presents a methodology for risk analysis in chemical and allied industries that is based on a combination of HAZard and OPerability analysis (HAZOP) and a quantitative analysis of the most relevant risks through the development of fault trees, fault tree analysis (FTA). Results from FTA allow prioritizing the preventive and corrective measures to minimize the probability of failure. An analysis of a case study is performed; it consists in the terminal for unloading chemical and petroleum products, and the fuel storage facilities of two companies, in the port of Valencia (Spain). HAZOP analysis shows that loading and unloading areas are the most sensitive areas of the plant and where the most significant danger is a fuel spill. FTA analysis indicates that the most likely event is a fuel spill in tank truck loading area. A sensitivity analysis from the FTA results show the importance of the human factor in all sequences of the possible accidents, so it should be mandatory to improve the training of the staff of the plants.

Analysis of the prescribed burning practice in the pine forest of northwestern Portugal.

PubMed

Fernandes, P; Botelho, H

2004-01-01

The ignition of low-intensity fires in the dormant season in the pine stands of north-western Portugal seeks to reduce the existing fuel hazard without compromising site quality. The purpose of this study is to characterise this practice and assess its effectiveness, based on information resulting from the normal monitoring process at the management level, and using operational guidelines, fire behaviour models and a newly developed method to classify prescribed fire severity. Although the region's humid climate strongly constrains the activity of prescribed fire, 87% of the fires analysed were undertaken under acceptable meteorological and fuel moisture conditions. In fact, most operations achieved satisfactory results. On average, prescribed fire reduces by 96% the potential intensity of a wildfire occurring under extreme weather conditions, but 36% of the treated sites would still require heavy fire fighting resources to suppress such fire, and 17% would still carry it in the tree canopy. Only 10% of the prescribed burns have an excessive impact on trees or the forest floor, while 89% (normal fire weather) or 59% (extreme fire weather) comply with both ecological integrity maintenance and wildfire protection needs. Improved planning and monitoring procedures are recommended in order to overcome the current deficiencies.

Safety Assessment of Multi Purpose Small Payload Rack(MSPR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizutani, Yoshinobu; Takada, Satomi; Murata, Kosei; Ozawa, Daisaku; Kobayashi, Ryoji; Nakamura, Yasuhiro

2010-09-01

We are reporting summary of preliminary safety assessment for Multi Purpose Small Payload Rack(MSPR), which is one of the micro gravity experiment facilities that are being developed for the 2nd phase JEM utilization(JEM: Japanese Experiment Module) that will be launched on H-II Transfer Vehicle(HTV) 2nd flight in 2011. MSPR is used for multi-purpose micro-g experiment providing experimental spaces and work stations. MSPR has three experimental spaces; first, there is a space called Work Volume(WV) with capacity volume of approximately 350 litters, in which multiple resources including electricity, communication, and moving image functions can be used. Within this space, installation of devices can be done by simple, prompt attachment by Velcro and pins with high degree of flexibility. Second, there is Small Experiment Area(SEA), with capacity volume of approximately 70 litters, in which electricity, communication, and moving image functions can also be used in the same way as WV. These spaces protect experiment devices and specimens from contingent loads by the crewmembers. Third, there is Work Bench with area of 0.5 square meters, on which can be used for maintenance, inspection and data operations of installed devices, etc. This bench can be stored in the rack during contingency. Chamber for Combustion Experiment(CCE) that is planned to be installed in WV is a pressure-resistant experimental container that can be used to seal hazardous materials from combustion experiments. This CCE has double sealing design in chamber itself, which resist gas leakage under normal the temperature and pressure. Electricity, communication, moving image function can be used in the same way as WV. JAXA Phase 2 Safety Review Panel(SRP) has been held in April, 2010. For safety analysis of MSPR, hazards were identified based on Fault Tree Analysis methodology and then these hazards were classified into either eight ISS standard-type hazards or eight unique-type hazards that requires special controls based on ISS common safety assessment methodology. Safety evaluation results are reported in the Safety Assessment Report(SAR) 1). Regarding structural failure, unique hazards are especially evaluated considering not only the tolerance for launch load but also load by crewmembers or orbital loads. Regarding electrical shock, electricity design up to secondary power is evaluated in unique hazard from a view point of Electrical design suitable for high voltage(32VDC or more) circuit. Regarding rupture/leakage of pressure system, hazards of fuel supply line, waste line for combustion gas, and pressure system including CCE are evaluated. Also evaluation for contamination due to hazardous gas leakage from CCE is conducted. External propagation of fire from CCE is also evaluated. In this report, we will show the overview of the result of safety assessment and future plan toward critical design phase activity.

Modeling flash floods in ungauged mountain catchments of China: A decision tree learning approach for parameter regionalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Zhou, J.; Wang, H.; Liu, C.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Flash floods in small mountain catchments are one of the most frequent causes of loss of life and property from natural hazards in China. Hydrological models can be a useful tool for the anticipation of these events and the issuing of timely warnings. One of the main challenges of setting up such a system is finding appropriate model parameter values for ungauged catchments. Previous studies have shown that the transfer of parameter sets from hydrologically similar gauged catchments is one of the best performing regionalization methods. However, a remaining key issue is the identification of suitable descriptors of similarity. In this study, we use decision tree learning to explore parameter set transferability in the full space of catchment descriptors. For this purpose, a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model is set up for 35 catchments in ten Chinese provinces. Hourly runoff data from in total 858 storm events are used to calibrate the model and to evaluate the performance of parameter set transfers between catchments. We then present a novel technique that uses the splitting rules of classification and regression trees (CART) for finding suitable donor catchments for ungauged target catchments. The ability of the model to detect flood events in assumed ungauged catchments is evaluated in series of leave-one-out tests. We show that CART analysis increases the probability of detection of 10-year flood events in comparison to a conventional measure of physiographic-climatic similarity by up to 20%. Decision tree learning can outperform other regionalization approaches because it generates rules that optimally consider spatial proximity and physical similarity. Spatial proximity can be used as a selection criteria but is skipped in the case where no similar gauged catchments are in the vicinity. We conclude that the CART regionalization concept is particularly suitable for implementation in sparsely gauged and topographically complex environments where a proximity-based regionalization concept is not applicable.

Pinyon and juniper encroachment into sagebrush ecosystems impacts distribution and survival of greater sage-grouse

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian; Ricca, Mark; Gustafson, K. Ben; Ziegler, Pilar T.; Casazza, Michael L.

2017-01-01

In sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems, encroachment of pinyon (Pinus spp.) and juniper (Juniperus spp.; hereafter, “pinyon-juniper”) trees has increased dramatically since European settlement. Understanding the impacts of this encroachment on behavioral decisions, distributions, and population dynamics of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other sagebrush obligate species could help benefit sagebrush ecosystem management actions. We employed a novel two-stage Bayesian model that linked avoidance across different levels of pinyon-juniper cover to sage-grouse survival. Our analysis relied on extensive telemetry data collected across 6 yr and seven subpopulations within the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS), on the border of Nevada and California. The first model stage indicated avoidance behavior for all canopy cover classes on average, but individual grouse exhibited a high degree of heterogeneity in avoidance behavior of the lowest cover class (e.g., scattered isolated trees). The second stage modeled survival as a function of estimated avoidance parameters and indicated increased survival rates for individuals that exhibited avoidance of the lowest cover class. A post hoc frailty analysis revealed the greatest increase in hazard (i.e., mortality risk) occurred in areas with scattered isolated trees consisting of relatively high primary plant productivity. Collectively, these results provide clear evidence that local sage-grouse distributions and demographic rates are influenced by pinyon-juniper, especially in habitats with higher primary productivity but relatively low and seemingly benign tree cover. Such areas may function as ecological traps that convey attractive resources but adversely affect population vital rates. To increase sage-grouse survival, our model predictions support reducing actual pinyon-juniper cover as low as 1.5%, which is lower than the published target of 4.0%. These results may represent effects of pinyon-juniper cover in areas with similar ecological conditions to those of the Bi-State DPS, where populations occur at relatively high elevations and pinyon-juniper is abundant and widespread.

Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

2015-04-01

This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

Aerial Mapping of Forests Affected by Pathogens Using UAVs, Hyperspectral Sensors, and Artificial Intelligence.

PubMed

Sandino, Juan; Pegg, Geoff; Gonzalez, Felipe; Smith, Grant

2018-03-22

The environmental and economic impacts of exotic fungal species on natural and plantation forests have been historically catastrophic. Recorded surveillance and control actions are challenging because they are costly, time-consuming, and hazardous in remote areas. Prolonged periods of testing and observation of site-based tests have limitations in verifying the rapid proliferation of exotic pathogens and deterioration rates in hosts. Recent remote sensing approaches have offered fast, broad-scale, and affordable surveys as well as additional indicators that can complement on-ground tests. This paper proposes a framework that consolidates site-based insights and remote sensing capabilities to detect and segment deteriorations by fungal pathogens in natural and plantation forests. This approach is illustrated with an experimentation case of myrtle rust ( Austropuccinia psidii ) on paperbark tea trees ( Melaleuca quinquenervia ) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The method integrates unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), hyperspectral image sensors, and data processing algorithms using machine learning. Imagery is acquired using a Headwall Nano-Hyperspec ® camera, orthorectified in Headwall SpectralView ® , and processed in Python programming language using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL), and Scikit-learn third-party libraries. In total, 11,385 samples were extracted and labelled into five classes: two classes for deterioration status and three classes for background objects. Insights reveal individual detection rates of 95% for healthy trees, 97% for deteriorated trees, and a global multiclass detection rate of 97%. The methodology is versatile to be applied to additional datasets taken with different image sensors, and the processing of large datasets with freeware tools.

Expert risk perceptions and the social amplification of risk: A case study in invasive tree pests and diseases.

PubMed

Urquhart, Julie; Potter, Clive; Barnett, Julie; Fellenor, John; Mumford, John; Quine, Christopher P

2017-11-01

The Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) is often used as a conceptual tool for studying diverse risk perceptions associated with environmental hazards. While widely applied, it has been criticised for implying that it is possible to define a benchmark 'real' risk that is determined by experts and around which public risk perceptions can subsequently become amplified. It has been argued that this objectification of risk is particularly problematic when there are high levels of scientific uncertainty and a lack of expert consensus about the nature of a risk and its impacts. In order to explore this further, this paper examines how 'experts' - defined in this case as scientists, policy makers, outbreak managers and key stakeholders - construct and assemble their understanding of the risks associated with two invasive tree pest and disease outbreaks in the UK, ash dieback and oak processionary moth. Through semi-structured interviews with experts in each of the case study outbreaks, the paper aims to better understand the nature of information sources drawn on to construct perceptions of tree health risks, especially when uncertainty is prevalent. A key conclusion is that risk assessment is a socially-mediated, relational and incremental process with experts drawing on a range of official, anecdotal and experiential sources of information, as well as reference to past events in order to assemble the risk case. Aligned with this, experts make attributions about public concern, especially when the evidence base is incomplete and there is a need to justify policy and management actions and safeguard reputation.

Aerial Mapping of Forests Affected by Pathogens Using UAVs, Hyperspectral Sensors, and Artificial Intelligence

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The environmental and economic impacts of exotic fungal species on natural and plantation forests have been historically catastrophic. Recorded surveillance and control actions are challenging because they are costly, time-consuming, and hazardous in remote areas. Prolonged periods of testing and observation of site-based tests have limitations in verifying the rapid proliferation of exotic pathogens and deterioration rates in hosts. Recent remote sensing approaches have offered fast, broad-scale, and affordable surveys as well as additional indicators that can complement on-ground tests. This paper proposes a framework that consolidates site-based insights and remote sensing capabilities to detect and segment deteriorations by fungal pathogens in natural and plantation forests. This approach is illustrated with an experimentation case of myrtle rust (Austropuccinia psidii) on paperbark tea trees (Melaleuca quinquenervia) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. The method integrates unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), hyperspectral image sensors, and data processing algorithms using machine learning. Imagery is acquired using a Headwall Nano-Hyperspec® camera, orthorectified in Headwall SpectralView®, and processed in Python programming language using eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Geospatial Data Abstraction Library (GDAL), and Scikit-learn third-party libraries. In total, 11,385 samples were extracted and labelled into five classes: two classes for deterioration status and three classes for background objects. Insights reveal individual detection rates of 95% for healthy trees, 97% for deteriorated trees, and a global multiclass detection rate of 97%. The methodology is versatile to be applied to additional datasets taken with different image sensors, and the processing of large datasets with freeware tools. PMID:29565822

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) database project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogburn, Sarah; Harpel, Chris; Pesicek, Jeremy; Wellik, Jay; Pallister, John; Wright, Heather

2016-04-01

The Eruption Forecasting Information System (EFIS) project is a new initiative of the U.S. Geological Survey-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) with the goal of enhancing VDAP's ability to forecast the outcome of volcanic unrest. The EFIS project seeks to: (1) Move away from relying on the collective memory to probability estimation using databases (2) Create databases useful for pattern recognition and for answering common VDAP questions; e.g. how commonly does unrest lead to eruption? how commonly do phreatic eruptions portend magmatic eruptions and what is the range of antecedence times? (3) Create generic probabilistic event trees using global data for different volcano 'types' (4) Create background, volcano-specific, probabilistic event trees for frequently active or particularly hazardous volcanoes in advance of a crisis (5) Quantify and communicate uncertainty in probabilities A major component of the project is the global EFIS relational database, which contains multiple modules designed to aid in the construction of probabilistic event trees and to answer common questions that arise during volcanic crises. The primary module contains chronologies of volcanic unrest, including the timing of phreatic eruptions, column heights, eruptive products, etc. and will be initially populated using chronicles of eruptive activity from Alaskan volcanic eruptions in the GeoDIVA database (Cameron et al. 2013). This database module allows us to query across other global databases such as the WOVOdat database of monitoring data and the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database of eruptive histories and volcano information. The EFIS database is in the early stages of development and population; thus, this contribution also serves as a request for feedback from the community.

State of the art on forest and shallow landslide interactions illustrated by two studies in the French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, F.; Dorren, L.; Lopez, J.; Allegra, C.

2009-04-01

The importance of mountain forests in the protection from natural hazards such as landslides was perceived already in ancient cultures. Allusions of these interactions can be found in ancient Greek, Hebrew, Roman and Chinese literature. In modern times, quantitative studies on the role of vegetation on slope stability started flourishing during the 1960's, with particular contributions from the USA, USSR and Japan, followed by Brazil, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden and Taiwan in the 1970's and 1980's. Forests influence slope stability though mechanical and hydrological effects. Empirical and scientific knowledge agree on the fact that the main effects of forests stands are considered to be: • Mechanical stabilisation due to the presence of roots • Soil moisture depletion as a result of transpiration and water interception by the canopy • Surcharge from the weight of trees The first two factors are beneficial to slope stability whilst the latter may be beneficial or harmful depending on the slope steepness and the potential failure mode. Roots type and morphology influence the capacity of a tree to stabilise slopes, although the failure surface has to be effectively penetrated by the roots in order to be stabilised. Generally, however, forests are considered beneficial for slope stabilization within the soil depth prospected by the tree's root system. So forest stands, depending on the slope value, the hydrological condition and the soil substrata, could have a positive effect on shallow landslide mitigation. Much of the research in the European Alps, however, focuses on the protection awarded by forests against avalanches and rockfalls, whilst little has been done to quantify their protection against landslides. This is in contrast with other mountain regions in the world (Oregon, Himalaya, Japan, British Columbia), where the relations between forests and landslides has been and continues to be studied throughoutly. In order to develop an efficient shallow landslide prevention and mitigation and due to the lack of scientific knowledge on the interaction between forest stands and landslide activities, there is a real need of research axis specifically devoted to the tree main effects cited before. The main objective of these thematically research axis should be an efficient integration of the effect of the forest vegetation in the modelling of shallow landslide dynamic. This presentation deals with the state of the art on forest and landslide interaction illustrated by two studies conducted in the French Alps. The first one attempts to reduce a gap in the scientific knowledge by quantifying the hazard of landslide occurrence considering vegetation effects, in the Combeloup forest on the French Alps, using a physically based spatial modelling approach. The second one present the added value of dendrogeomorphological analyse to evaluate the past activities of landslide terrain in relationship with the evolution of the forest cover.

Rapid movement of frozen debris-lobes: implications for permafrost degradation and slope instability in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daanen, R.P.; Grosse, G.; Darrow, M.M.; Hamilton, T.D.; Jones, Benjamin M.

2012-01-01

We present the results of a reconnaissance investigation of unusual debris mass-movement features on permafrost slopes that pose a potential infrastructure hazard in the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska. For the purpose of this paper, we describe these features as frozen debris-lobes. We focus on the characterisation of frozen debris-lobes as indicators of various movement processes using ground-based surveys, remote sensing, field and laboratory measurements, and time-lapse observations of frozen debris-lobe systems along the Dalton Highway. Currently, some frozen debris-lobes exceed 100 m in width, 20 m in height and 1000 m in length. Our results indicate that frozen debris-lobes have responded to climate change by becoming increasingly active during the last decades, resulting in rapid downslope movement. Movement indicators observed in the field include toppling trees, slumps and scarps, detachment slides, striation marks on frozen sediment slabs, recently buried trees and other vegetation, mudflows, and large cracks in the lobe surface. The type and diversity of observed indicators suggest that the lobes likely consist of a frozen debris core, are subject to creep, and seasonally unfrozen surface sediment is transported in warm seasons by creep, slumping, viscous flow, blockfall and leaching of fines, and in cold seasons by creep and sliding of frozen sediment slabs. Ground-based measurements on one frozen debris-lobe over three years (2008–2010) revealed average movement rates of approximately 1 cm day−1, which is substantially larger than rates measured in historic aerial photography from the 1950s to 1980s. We discuss how climate change may further influence frozen debris-lobe dynamics, potentially accelerating their movement. We highlight the potential direct hazard that one of the studied frozen debris-lobes may pose in the coming years and decades to the nearby Trans Alaska Pipeline System and the Dalton Highway, the main artery for transportation between Interior Alaska and the North Slope.

Animal Disease Import Risk Analysis--a Review of Current Methods and Practice.

PubMed

Peeler, E J; Reese, R A; Thrush, M A

2015-10-01

The application of risk analysis to the spread of disease with international trade in animals and their products, that is, import risk analysis (IRA), has been largely driven by the Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO). The degree to which the IRA standard established by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), and associated guidance, meets the needs of the SPS agreement is discussed. The use of scenario trees is the core modelling approach used to represent the steps necessary for the hazard to occur. There is scope to elaborate scenario trees for commodity IRA so that the quantity of hazard at each step is assessed, which is crucial to the likelihood of establishment. The dependence between exposure and establishment suggests that they should fall within the same subcomponent. IRA undertaken for trade reasons must include an assessment of consequences to meet SPS criteria, but guidance is sparse. The integration of epidemiological and economic modelling may open a path for better methods. Matrices have been used in qualitative IRA to combine estimates of entry and exposure, and consequences with likelihood, but this approach has flaws and better methods are needed. OIE IRA standards and guidance indicate that the volume of trade should be taken into account, but offer no detail. Some published qualitative IRAs have assumed current levels and patterns of trade without specifying the volume of trade, which constrains the use of IRA to determine mitigation measures (to reduce risk to an acceptable level) and whether the principle of equivalence, fundamental to the SPS agreement, has been observed. It is questionable whether qualitative IRA can meet all the criteria set out in the SPS agreement. Nevertheless, scope exists to elaborate the current standards and guidance, so they better serve the principle of science-based decision-making. © 2013 Crown copyright. This article is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Preliminary assessment of using tree-tissue analysis and passive-diffusion samplers to evaluate trichloroethene contamination of ground water at Site SS-34N, McChord Air Force Base, Washington, 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cox, S.E.

2002-01-01

Two low-cost innovative sampling procedures for characterizing trichloroethene (TCE) contamination in ground water were evaluated for use at McChord Air Force Base (AFB) by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force McChord Air Force Base Installation Restoration Program, in 2001. Previous attempts to characterize the source of ground-water contamination in the heterogeneous glacial outwash aquifer at McChord site SS-34N using soil-gas surveys, direct-push exploration, and more than a dozen ground-water monitoring wells have had limited success. The procedures assessed in this study involved analysis of tree-tissue samples to map underlying ground-water contamination and deploying passive-diffusion samplers to measure TCE concentrations in existing monitoring wells. These procedures have been used successfully at other U.S. Department of Defense sites and have resulted in cost avoidance and accelerated site characterization. Despite the presence of TCE in ground water at site SS-34N, TCE was not detected in any of the 20 trees sampled at the site during either early spring or late summer sampling. The reason the tree tissue procedure was not successful at the McChord AFB site SS-34N may have been due to an inability of tree roots to extract moisture from a water table 30 feet below the land surface, or that concentrations of TCE in ground water were not large enough to be detectable in the tree tissue at the sampling point. Passive-diffusion samplers were placed near the top, middle, and bottom of screened intervals in three monitoring wells and TCE was observed in all samplers. Concentrations of TCE from the passive-diffusion samplers were generally similar to concentrations found in samples collected in the same wells using conventional pumping methods. In contrast to conventional pumping methods, the collection of ground-water samples using the passive-diffusion samples did not generate waste purge water that would require hazardous-waste disposal. In addition, the results from the passive-diffusion samples may show that TCE concentrations are stratified across some screened intervals. The overall results of the limited test of passive-diffusion samplers at site SS-34N were similar to more detailed tests conducted at other contaminated sites across the country and indicate that further evaluation of the use of passive-diffusion samplers at McChord site SS-34N is warranted.

Surgeon Training in Telerobotic Surgery via a Hardware-in-the-Loop Simulator

PubMed Central

Alemzadeh, Homa; Chen, Daniel; Kalbarczyk, Zbigniew; Iyer, Ravishankar K.; Kesavadas, Thenkurussi

2017-01-01

This work presents a software and hardware framework for a telerobotic surgery safety and motor skill training simulator. The aims are at providing trainees a comprehensive simulator for acquiring essential skills to perform telerobotic surgery. Existing commercial robotic surgery simulators lack features for safety training and optimal motion planning, which are critical factors in ensuring patient safety and efficiency in operation. In this work, we propose a hardware-in-the-loop simulator directly introducing these two features. The proposed simulator is built upon the Raven-II™ open source surgical robot, integrated with a physics engine and a safety hazard injection engine. Also, a Fast Marching Tree-based motion planning algorithm is used to help trainee learn the optimal instrument motion patterns. The main contributions of this work are (1) reproducing safety hazards events, related to da Vinci™ system, reported to the FDA MAUDE database, with a novel haptic feedback strategy to provide feedback to the operator when the underlying dynamics differ from the real robot's states so that the operator will be aware and can mitigate the negative impact of the safety-critical events, and (2) using motion planner to generate semioptimal path in an interactive robotic surgery training environment. PMID:29065635

Censored quantile regression with recursive partitioning-based weights

PubMed Central

Wey, Andrew; Wang, Lan; Rudser, Kyle

2014-01-01

Censored quantile regression provides a useful alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model for analyzing survival data. It directly models the conditional quantile of the survival time and hence is easy to interpret. Moreover, it relaxes the proportionality constraint on the hazard function associated with the popular Cox model and is natural for modeling heterogeneity of the data. Recently, Wang and Wang (2009. Locally weighted censored quantile regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association 103, 1117–1128) proposed a locally weighted censored quantile regression approach that allows for covariate-dependent censoring and is less restrictive than other censored quantile regression methods. However, their kernel smoothing-based weighting scheme requires all covariates to be continuous and encounters practical difficulty with even a moderate number of covariates. We propose a new weighting approach that uses recursive partitioning, e.g. survival trees, that offers greater flexibility in handling covariate-dependent censoring in moderately high dimensions and can incorporate both continuous and discrete covariates. We prove that this new weighting scheme leads to consistent estimation of the quantile regression coefficients and demonstrate its effectiveness via Monte Carlo simulations. We also illustrate the new method using a widely recognized data set from a clinical trial on primary biliary cirrhosis. PMID:23975800

The Zoning of Forest Fire Potential of Gulestan Province Forests Using Granular Computing and MODIS Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalilzadeh Shadlouei, A.; Delavar, M. R.

2013-09-01

There are many vegetation in Iran. This is because of extent of Iran and its width. One of these vegetation is forest vegetation most prevalent in Northern provinces named Guilan, Mazandaran, Gulestan, Ardebil as well as East Azerbaijan. These forests are always threatened by natural forest fires so much so that there have been reports of tens of fires in recent years. Forest fires are one of the major environmental as well as economic, social and security concerns in the world causing much damages. According to climatology, forest fires are one of the important factors in the formation and dispersion of vegetation. Also, regarding the environment, forest fires cause the emission of considerable amounts of greenhouse gases, smoke and dust into the atmosphere which in turn causes the earth temperature to rise up and are unhealthy to humans, animals and vegetation. In agriculture droughts are the usual side effects of these fires. The causes of forest fires could be categorized as either Human or Natural Causes. Naturally, it is impossible to completely contain forest fires; however, areas with high potentials of fire could be designated and analysed to decrease the risk of fires. The zoning of forest fire potential is a multi-criteria problem always accompanied by inherent uncertainty like other multi-criteria problems. So far, various methods and algorithm for zoning hazardous areas via Remote Sensing (RS) and Geospatial Information System (GIS) have been offered. This paper aims at zoning forest fire potential of Gulestan Province of Iran forests utilizing Remote Sensing, Geospatial Information System, meteorological data, MODIS images and granular computing method. Granular computing is part of granular mathematical and one way of solving multi-criteria problems such forest fire potential zoning supervised by one expert or some experts , and it offers rules for classification with the least inconsistencies. On the basis of the experts' opinion, 6 determinative criterias contributing to forest fires have been designated as follows: vegetation (NDVI), slope, aspect, temperature, humidity and proximity to roadways. By applying these variables on several tentatively selected areas and formation information tables and producing granular decision tree and extraction of rules, the zoning rules (for the areas in question) were extracted. According to them the zoning of the entire area has been conducted. The zoned areas have been classified into 5 categories: high hazard, medium hazard (high), medium hazard (low), low hazard (high), low hazard (low). According to the map, the zoning of most of the areas fall into the low hazard (high) class while the least number of areas have been classified as low hazard (low). Comparing the forest fires in these regions in 2010 with the MODIS data base for forest fires, it is concluded that areas with high hazards of forest fire have been classified with a 64 percent precision. In other word 64 percent of pixels that are in high hazard classification are classified according to MODIS data base. Using this method we obtain a good range of Perception. Manager will reduce forest fire concern using precautionary proceeding on hazardous area.

Validating national landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for Caribbean island countries: the case of Dominica and tropical storm Erika.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.

The weight distribution of coarse particulate organic matter exported from an alpine headwater stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turowski, Jens; Badoux, Alexandre; Bunte, Kristin; Rickli, Christian; Federspiel, Nicole

2013-04-01

Coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) spans sizes from 1 mm particles, weighing less than 1 mg, to large logs and whole trees, which may weigh several hundred kilograms. Different size and weight classes play different roles in stream environments, from being the prime source of energy in stream ecosystems to macroscopically determining channel morphology and local hydraulics. We show that a single scaling exponent can describe the weight distribution of CPOM transported in a mountain stream. This exponent is independent of discharge and valid for particle weights spanning almost seven orders of magnitude. Together with a rating curve of CPOM transport rates with discharge, we discuss the importance of the scaling exponent for measuring strategies, natural hazard mitigation and ecosystems.

FY01 Phytoremediation of Chlorinated Ethenes in Southern Sector Seepline Sediments of SRS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigmon, R.L.

This treatability study is now in the second year of deployment for the Southern Sector Phytoremediation Project. Phytoremediation is the use of vegetation and associated media to treat contaminated soils, sediments, and groundwater. Phytoremediation is a rapidly developing technology that promises effective and safe cleanup of certain hazardous wastes. This ongoing work addresses the fate of volatile organic contaminants (VOCs) in an experiment that simulates a vegetated seepline supplied with trichloroethylene- (TCE-) and perchloroethylene- (PCE-) contaminated groundwater. The primary objective is to determine how the trees and sediments uptake groundwater TCE and PCE, biodegrade it, and/or transform it. The experimentalmore » focus of this project is the biological removal of VOCs from seepline groundwater and sediments.« less

Management of nanomaterials safety in research environment.

PubMed

Groso, Amela; Petri-Fink, Alke; Magrez, Arnaud; Riediker, Michael; Meyer, Thierry

2010-12-10

Despite numerous discussions, workshops, reviews and reports about responsible development of nanotechnology, information describing health and environmental risk of engineered nanoparticles or nanomaterials is severely lacking and thus insufficient for completing rigorous risk assessment on their use. However, since preliminary scientific evaluations indicate that there are reasonable suspicions that activities involving nanomaterials might have damaging effects on human health; the precautionary principle must be applied. Public and private institutions as well as industries have the duty to adopt preventive and protective measures proportionate to the risk intensity and the desired level of protection. In this work, we present a practical, 'user-friendly' procedure for a university-wide safety and health management of nanomaterials, developed as a multi-stakeholder effort (government, accident insurance, researchers and experts for occupational safety and health). The process starts using a schematic decision tree that allows classifying the nano laboratory into three hazard classes similar to a control banding approach (from Nano 3--highest hazard to Nano1--lowest hazard). Classifying laboratories into risk classes would require considering actual or potential exposure to the nanomaterial as well as statistical data on health effects of exposure. Due to the fact that these data (as well as exposure limits for each individual material) are not available, risk classes could not be determined. For each hazard level we then provide a list of required risk mitigation measures (technical, organizational and personal). The target 'users' of this safety and health methodology are researchers and safety officers. They can rapidly access the precautionary hazard class of their activities and the corresponding adequate safety and health measures. We succeed in convincing scientist dealing with nano-activities that adequate safety measures and management are promoting innovation and discoveries by ensuring them a safe environment even in the case of very novel products. The proposed measures are not considered as constraints but as a support to their research. This methodology is being implemented at the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne in over 100 research labs dealing with nanomaterials. It is our opinion that it would be useful to other research and academia institutions as well.

Management of nanomaterials safety in research environment

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Despite numerous discussions, workshops, reviews and reports about responsible development of nanotechnology, information describing health and environmental risk of engineered nanoparticles or nanomaterials is severely lacking and thus insufficient for completing rigorous risk assessment on their use. However, since preliminary scientific evaluations indicate that there are reasonable suspicions that activities involving nanomaterials might have damaging effects on human health; the precautionary principle must be applied. Public and private institutions as well as industries have the duty to adopt preventive and protective measures proportionate to the risk intensity and the desired level of protection. In this work, we present a practical, 'user-friendly' procedure for a university-wide safety and health management of nanomaterials, developed as a multi-stakeholder effort (government, accident insurance, researchers and experts for occupational safety and health). The process starts using a schematic decision tree that allows classifying the nano laboratory into three hazard classes similar to a control banding approach (from Nano 3 - highest hazard to Nano1 - lowest hazard). Classifying laboratories into risk classes would require considering actual or potential exposure to the nanomaterial as well as statistical data on health effects of exposure. Due to the fact that these data (as well as exposure limits for each individual material) are not available, risk classes could not be determined. For each hazard level we then provide a list of required risk mitigation measures (technical, organizational and personal). The target 'users' of this safety and health methodology are researchers and safety officers. They can rapidly access the precautionary hazard class of their activities and the corresponding adequate safety and health measures. We succeed in convincing scientist dealing with nano-activities that adequate safety measures and management are promoting innovation and discoveries by ensuring them a safe environment even in the case of very novel products. The proposed measures are not considered as constraints but as a support to their research. This methodology is being implemented at the Ecole Polytechnique de Lausanne in over 100 research labs dealing with nanomaterials. It is our opinion that it would be useful to other research and academia institutions as well. PMID:21143952

Seismic hazard assessment in the Catania and Siracusa urban areas (Italy) through different approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panzera, Francesco; Lombardo, Giuseppe; Rigano, Rosaria

2010-05-01

The seismic hazard assessment (SHA) can be performed using either Deterministic or Probabilistic approaches. In present study a probabilistic analysis was carried out for the Catania and Siracusa towns using two different procedures: the 'site' (Albarello and Mucciarelli, 2002) and the 'seismotectonic' (Cornell 1968; Esteva, 1967) methodologies. The SASHA code (D'Amico and Albarello, 2007) was used to calculate seismic hazard through the 'site' approach, whereas the CRISIS2007 code (Ordaz et al., 2007) was adopted in the Esteva-Cornell procedure. According to current international conventions for PSHA (SSHAC, 1997), a logic tree approach was followed to consider and reduce the epistemic uncertainties, for both seismotectonic and site methods. The code SASHA handles the intensity data taking into account the macroseismic information of past earthquakes. CRISIS2007 code needs, as input elements, a seismic catalogue tested for completeness, a seismogenetic zonation and ground motion predicting equations. Data concerning the characterization of regional seismic sources and ground motion attenuation properties were taken from the literature. Special care was devoted to define source zone models, taking into account the most recent studies on regional seismotectonic features and, in particular, the possibility of considering the Malta escarpment as a potential source. The combined use of the above mentioned approaches allowed us to obtain useful elements to define the site seismic hazard in Catania and Siracusa. The results point out that the choice of the probabilistic model plays a fundamental role. It is indeed observed that when the site intensity data are used, the town of Catania shows hazard values higher than the ones found for Siracusa, for each considered return period. On the contrary, when the Esteva-Cornell method is used, Siracusa urban area shows higher hazard than Catania, for return periods greater than one hundred years. The higher hazard observed, through the site approach, for Catania area can be interpreted in terms of greater damage historically observed at this town and its smaller distance from the seismogenic structures. On the other hand, the higher level of hazard found for Siracusa, throughout the Esteva-Cornell approach, could be a consequence of the features of such method which spreads out the intensities over a wide area. However, in SHA the use of a combined approach is recommended for a mutual validation of obtained results and any choice between the two approaches is strictly linked to the knowledge of the local seismotectonic features. References Albarello D. and Mucciarelli M.; 2002: Seismic hazard estimates using ill?defined macroseismic data at site. Pure Appl. Geophys., 159, 1289?1304. Cornell C.A.; 1968: Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58(5), 1583-1606. D'Amico V. and Albarello D.; 2007: Codice per il calcolo della pericolosità sismica da dati di sito (freeware). Progetto DPC-INGV S1, http://esse1.mi.ingv.it/d12.html Esteva L.; 1967: Criterios para la construcción de espectros para diseño sísmico. Proceedings of XII Jornadas Sudamericanas de Ingeniería Estructural y III Simposio Panamericano de Estructuras, Caracas, 1967. Published later in Boletín del Instituto de Materiales y Modelos Estructurales, Universidad Central de Venezuela, No. 19. Ordaz M., Aguilar A. and Arboleda J.; 2007: CRISIS2007, Program for computing seismic hazard. Version 5.4, Mexico City: UNAM. SSHAC (Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee); 1997: Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts. NUREG/CR-6372.

Threshold determination and hazard evaluation of the disaster about drought/flood sudden alternation in Huaihe River basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhonghui; Li, Ning; Wu, Xianhua

2017-08-01

Based on the related impact factors of precipitation anomaly referred in previous research, eight atmospheric circulation indicators in pre-winter and spring picked out by correlation analysis as the independent variables and the hazard levels of drought/flood sudden alternation index (DFSAI) as the dependent variables were used to construct the nonlinear and nonparametric classification and regression tree (CART) for the threshold determination and hazard evaluation on bimonthly and monthly scales in Huaihe River basin. Results show that the spring indicators about Arctic oscillation index (AOI_S), Asia polar vortex area index (APVAI_S), and Asian meridional circulation index (AMCI_S) were extracted as the three main impact factors, which were proved to be suitable for the hazard levels assessment of the drought/flood sudden alternation (DFSA) disaster based on bimonthly scale. On monthly scale, AOI_S, northern hemisphere polar vortex intensity index in pre-winter (NHPVII_PW), and AMCI_S are the three primary variables in hazard level prediction of DFSA in May and June; NHPVII_PW, AMCI_PW, and AMCI_S are for that in June and July; NHPVII_PW and EASMI are for that in July and August. The type of the disaster (flood to drought/drought to flood/no DFSA) and hazard level under different conditions also can be obtained from each model. The hazard level and type were expressed by the integer from - 3 to 3, which change from the high level of disaster that flood to drought (level - 3) to the high level of the reverse type (level 3). The middle number 0 represents no DFSA. The high levels of the two sides decrease progressively to the neutralization (level 0). When AOI_S less than - 0.355, the disaster of the quick turn from drought to flood is more apt to happen (level 1) on bimonthly scale; when AOI_S less than - 1.32, the same type disaster may occur (level 2) in May and June on monthly scale. When NHPVII_PW less than 341.5, the disaster of the quick turn from flood to drought will occur (level - 1) in June and July on monthly scale. By this analogy, different hazard types and levels all can be judged from the optimal models. The corresponding data from 2011 to 2015 were selected to verify the final models through the comparison between the predicted and actual levels, and the models of M1 (bimonthly scale), M2, and M3 (monthly scale) were proved to be acceptable by the prediction accuracy rate (compared the predicted with the observed levels, 73%, 11/15). The proposed CART method in this research is a new try for the short-term climate prediction.

Reconstruction of glacial lake outburst floods in northern Tien Shan: Implications for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaginaev, V.; Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Erokhin, S.; Matov, E.; Petrakov, D.; Stoffel, M.

2016-09-01

Glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows are among the most significant natural threats in the Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and have even caused the loss of life and damage to infrastructure in its capital Bishkek. An improved understanding of the occurrence of this process is essential so as to be able to design reliable disaster risk reduction strategies, even more so in view of ongoing climate change and scenarios of future evolutions. Here, we apply a dendrogeomorphic approach to reconstruct past debris-flow activity on the Aksay cone (Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz range), where outbursting glacier lakes and intense rainfalls have triggered huge debris flows over the past decades. A total of 96 Picea abies (L.) Karst. trees growing on the cone and along the main channel have been selected based on the evidence of past debris-flow damage in their trunks; these trees were then sampled using increment borers. The dating of past events was based on the assessment of growth disturbances (GD) in the tree-ring records and included the detection of injuries, tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts, reaction wood, and abrupt growth changes. In total, 320 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples. In combination with aerial imagery and geomorphic recognition in the field, reactions in trees and their position on the cone have allowed reconstruction of the main spatial patterns of past events on the Aksay cone. Our findings suggest that at least 27 debris flows have occurred on the site between 1877 and 2015 and point to the occurrence of at least 17 events that were not documented prior to this study. We also observe high process activity during the 1950s and 1960s, with major events on the cone in 1950, 1966, and 1968, coinciding with phases of slight glacier advance. The spatial analyses of events also point to two different spatial patterns, suggesting that quite dissimilar magnitudes probably occurred during glacier lake outburst floods and rainfall-induced debris-flow events. The results presented here represent the longest, annually resolved GLOF series in the region, which in turn has key implications on risk assessment, not just in the Ala-Archa valley, but also in the entire Kyrgyz range (northern Tien Shan).

BYMUR software: a free and open source tool for quantifying and visualizing multi-risk analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Selva, Jacopo

2013-04-01

The BYMUR software aims to provide an easy-to-use open source tool for both computing multi-risk and managing/visualizing/comparing all the inputs (e.g. hazard, fragilities and exposure) as well as the corresponding results (e.g. risk curves, risk indexes). For all inputs, a complete management of inter-model epistemic uncertainty is considered. The BYMUR software will be one of the final products provided by the homonymous ByMuR project (http://bymur.bo.ingv.it/) funded by Italian Ministry of Education, Universities and Research (MIUR), focused to (i) provide a quantitative and objective general method for a comprehensive long-term multi-risk analysis in a given area, accounting for inter-model epistemic uncertainty through Bayesian methodologies, and (ii) apply the methodology to seismic, volcanic and tsunami risks in Naples (Italy). More specifically, the BYMUR software will be able to separately account for the probabilistic hazard assessment of different kind of hazardous phenomena, the relative (time-dependent/independent) vulnerabilities and exposure data, and their possible (predefined) interactions: the software will analyze these inputs and will use them to estimate both single- and multi- risk associated to a specific target area. In addition, it will be possible to connect the software to further tools (e.g., a full hazard analysis), allowing a dynamic I/O of results. The use of Python programming language guarantees that the final software will be open source and platform independent. Moreover, thanks to the integration of some most popular and rich-featured Python scientific modules (Numpy, Matplotlib, Scipy) with the wxPython graphical user toolkit, the final tool will be equipped with a comprehensive Graphical User Interface (GUI) able to control and visualize (in the form of tables, maps and/or plots) any stage of the multi-risk analysis. The additional features of importing/exporting data in MySQL databases and/or standard XML formats (for instance, the global standards defined in the frame of GEM project for seismic hazard and risk) will grant the interoperability with other FOSS software and tools and, at the same time, to be on hand of the geo-scientific community. An already available example of connection is represented by the BET_VH(**) tool, which probabilistic volcanic hazard outputs will be used as input for BYMUR. Finally, the prototype version of BYMUR will be used for the case study of the municipality of Naples, by considering three different natural hazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and tsunamis) and by assessing the consequent long-term risk evaluation. (**)BET_VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard) is probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment, recently re-designed and adjusted to be run on the Vhub cyber-infrastructure, a free web-based collaborative tool in volcanology research (see http://vhub.org/resources/betvh).

A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

2015-04-01

Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node (location) is split into four sub-ETs corresponding to: caldera, ice-covered fissure, ice-free fissure toward the North and ice-free fissure toward the South. This subdivision is needed because different hazards will impact different parts of the country, e.g. eruption sources located in parts of the system belonging to different water catchments will trigger glacial outbursts that will inundate different areas in the lowland. Once the source location has been identified, defining outcome, phenomena, size, duration and sectors are then the following steps. The outcomes include effusive lava flows, pure sub-glacial eruptions (with no aerial component), phreatomagmatic basaltic explosive eruptions, to mixed eruptions. Once the phenomena are listed, the sizes are identified as functions of the hazards themselves, for example the sizes may refer to the extrusion rate in case of lava flow and to the volume in case of flood. This way to proceed is mostly due to the need to include a wide range of phenomena that might occur at the same time and that need to be treated separately. A tentative estimation of likelihoods at each branch has been done mostly based on past eruptive events and historical evidence. This is the first step towards the setup of a long-range hazard assessment tool.

Prognostic value of proliferation in pleomorphic soft tissue sarcomas: a new look at an old measure.

PubMed

Seinen, Jojanneke M; Jönsson, Mats; Bendahl, Pär-Ola O; Baldetorp, Bo; Rambech, Eva; Åkerman, Måns; Rydholm, Anders; Nilbert, Mef; Carneiro, Ana

2012-12-01

Though proliferation has repeatedly shown a prognostic role in sarcomas, it has not reached clinical application. We performed a comprehensive evaluation of the prognostic role of 5 proliferation measures in a large series of soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities and the trunk wall. One hundred ninety-six primary soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities and the trunk wall were subjected to DNA flow cytometry for quantification of S-phase fraction and to immunohistochemical evaluation of Ki-67, Top2a, p21, and p27Kip1. In univariate analysis, positive expression of Ki-67 (hazard ratio = 4.5, CI = 1.6-12.1), Top2a (hazard ratio = 2.2, CI = 1.2-3.5) and high S-phase fraction (hazard ratio = 1.8, CI = 1.2-3.7) significantly correlated with risk for metastasis. When combined with currently used prognostic factors, Ki-67, S-phase fraction and Top2a fraction contributed to refined identification of prognostic risk groups. Proliferation, as assessed by expression of Ki-67 and Top2a and evaluation of S-phase fraction and applied to statistical decision-tree models, provides prognostic information in soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity and trunk wall. Though proliferation contributes independently to currently applied prognosticators, its role is particularly strong when few other factors are available, which suggests a role in preoperative decision-making related to identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from neoadjuvant therapy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lu, Chien-tsug; Wetmore, Michael; Przetak, Robert

2006-01-01

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Preliminary Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Map for Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Basili, Roberto; Grezio, Anita; Molinari, Irene; Piatanesi, Alessio; Romano, Fabrizio; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Tonini, Roberto; Bonini, Lorenzo; Michelini, Alberto; Macias, Jorge; Castro, Manuel J.; González-Vida, José Manuel; de la Asunción, Marc

2015-04-01

We present a preliminary release of the first seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard map for Italy. The map aims to become an important tool for the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC), as well as a support tool for the NEAMTWS Tsunami Service Provider, the Centro Allerta Tsunami (CAT) at INGV, Rome. The map shows the offshore maximum tsunami elevation expected for several average return periods. Both crustal and subduction earthquakes are considered. The probability for each scenario (location, depth, mechanism, source size, magnitude and temporal rate) is defined on a uniform grid covering the entire Mediterranean for crustal earthquakes and on the plate interface for subduction earthquakes. Activity rates are assigned from seismic catalogues and basing on a tectonic regionalization of the Mediterranean area. The methodology explores the associated aleatory uncertainty through the innovative application of an Event Tree. Main sources of epistemic uncertainty are also addressed although in preliminary way. The whole procedure relies on a database of pre-calculated Gaussian-shaped Green's functions for the sea level elevation, to be used also as a real time hazard assessment tool by CAT. Tsunami simulations are performed using the non-linear shallow water multi-GPU code HySEA, over a 30 arcsec bathymetry (from the SRTM30+ dataset) and the maximum elevations are stored at the 50-meter isobath and then extrapolated through the Green's law at 1 meter depth. This work is partially funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, Strategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe - FP7-ENV2013 6.4-3, Grant 603839, and by the Italian flagship project RITMARE.

[Soft-ridged bench terrace design in hilly loess region].

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Chen, Li; Gao, Wangsheng

2005-08-01

Reconfiguration of hillside field into terrace is regarded as one of the key techniques for water and soil conservation in mountainous regions. On slopes exceeding 30 degrees, the traditional techniques of terracing are difficult to apply as risers (i.e., backslopes), and if not reinforced, are so abrupt and easy to collapse under gravity alone, thus damaging the terrace. To improve the reconfiguration of hillside field into terrace, holistic techniques of soft-ridged bench terrace engineering, including revegetation, with trees and planting grasses on riser slopes, were tested between 1997 and 2001 in Xiabiangou watershed of Yan' an, Shaanxi Province. A "working with Nature" engineering approach, riser slopes of 45 degrees, similar to the pre-existing slope of 35 degrees, was employed to radically reduce gravity-erosion. Based on the concepts of biodiversity and the principles of landscape ecology, terrace benches, bunds, and risers were planted with trees, shrubs, forage grasses, and crops, serving to generate a diverse array of plants, a semi-forested area, and to stabilize terrace bunds. Soft-ridged bench terrace made it possible to significantly reduce hazards arising from gravity erosion, and reduce the costs of individual bench construction and maintenance by 24.9% and 55.5% of the costs under traditional techniques, respectively. Such a construction allowed an enrichment and concentration of nutrients in the soils of terrace bunds, providing an ideal environment for a range of plants to grow and develop. The terrace riser could be planted with drought-resistant plants ranging from forage grasses to trees, and this riser vegetation would turn the exposed bunds and risers existing under traditional techniques into plant-covered belts, great green ribbons decorating farmland and contributing to the enhancement of the landscape biology.

An ethanol-based fixation method for anatomical and micro-morphological characterization of leaves of various tree species.

PubMed

Chieco, C; Rotondi, A; Morrone, L; Rapparini, F; Baraldi, R

2013-02-01

The use of formalin constitutes serious health hazards for laboratory workers. We investigated the suitability and performance of the ethanol-based fixative, FineFIX, as a substitute for formalin for anatomical and cellular structure investigations of leaves by light microscopy and for leaf surface and ultrastructural analysis by scanning electron microscopy (SEM). We compared the anatomical features of leaf materials prepared using conventional formalin fixation with the FineFIX. Leaves were collected from ornamental tree species commonly used in urban areas. FineFIX was also compared with glutaraldehyde fixation and air drying normally used for scanning electron microscopy to develop a new method for evaluating leaf morphology and microstructure in three ornamental tree species. The cytological features of the samples processed for histological analysis were well preserved by both fixatives as demonstrated by the absence of nuclear swelling or shrinkage, cell wall detachment or tissue flaking, and good presentation of cytoplasmic vacuolization. In addition, good preservation of surface details and the absence of shrinkage artefacts confirmed the efficacy of FineFIX fixation for SEM analysis. Cuticular wax was preserved only in air dried samples. Samples treated with chemical substances during the fixation and dehydration phases showed various alterations of the wax structures. In some air dried samples a loss of turgidity of the cells was observed that caused general wrinkling of the epidermal surfaces. Commercial FineFIX is an adequate substitute for formalin in histology and it can be applied successfully also for SEM investigation, while reducing the health risks of glutaraldehyde or other toxic fixatives. To investigate the potential for plants to absorb and capture particulates in air, which requires preservation of the natural morphology of trichomes and epicuticular waxes, a combination of FineFIX fixation and air drying is recommended.

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

2015-04-01

Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results from all the PVHAs can be combined at the end. This will allow to: 1) possibly add the contribution of new volcanic systems, 2) compare and hierarchically rank the tephra fallout risk among both all the considered volcanoes and, possibly, other kinds of risk, and 3) quantitatively assess the overall tephra fallout hazard over the target area. As practical application, we selected a first subset consisting of the five most hazardous volcanic systems for tephra fallout that could affect the selected target area. These are the ones with the highest number of eruptions in the last 1100 years (Katla, Hekla, Grímsvötn) and the ones located closest to the target area (Reykjanes and Snæfellsjökull). PVHA is computed using the PyBetVH tool (an improvement of the Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazard -BET_VH- model) and tephra dispersal is modelled by means of VOL-CALPUFF numerical code. Katla volcanic system is used as pilot case study because of its eruptive history and behaviour are well known and documented. We found that some considerations and results derived from the study of Katla could be general and applied to the other considered volcanoes and, more in general, to other Icelandic volcanic systems. The work was financially supported by the European Science Foundation (ESF), in the framework of the Research Networking Programme MeMoVolc.

Selected considerations of implementation of the GNSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cwiklak, Janusz; Fellner, Andrzej; Fellner, Radoslaw; Jafernik, Henryk; Sledzinski, Janusz

2014-05-01

The article describes analysis of the safety and risk for the implementation of precise approach procedures (Localizer Performance and Vertical Guidance - LPV) with GNSS sensor at airports in Warsaw and Katowice. There were used some techniques of the identification of threats (inducing controlled flight into terrain, landing accident, mid-air collision) and evaluations methods based on Fault Tree Analysis, probability of the risk, safety risk evaluation matrix and Functional Hazard Assesment. Also safety goals were determined. Research led to determine probabilities of appearing of threats, as well as allow compare them with regard to the ILS. As a result of conducting the Preliminary System Safety Assessment (PSSA), there were defined requirements essential to reach the required level of the safety. It is worth to underline, that quantitative requirements were defined using FTA.

The Role of Remote Sensing in Assessing Forest Biomass in Appalachian South Carolina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shain, W.; Nix, L.

1982-01-01

Information is presented on the use of color infrared aerial photographs and ground sampling methods to quantify standing forest biomass in Appalachian South Carolina. Local tree biomass equations are given and subsequent evaluation of stand density and size classes using remote sensing methods is presented. Methods of terrain analysis, environmental hazard rating, and subsequent determination of accessibility of forest biomass are discussed. Computer-based statistical analyses are used to expand individual cover-type specific ground sample data to area-wide cover type inventory figures based on aerial photographic interpretation and area measurement. Forest biomass data are presented for the study area in terms of discriminant size classes, merchantability limits, accessibility (as related to terrain and yield/harvest constraints), and potential environmental impact of harvest.

Critical review of methods for risk ranking of food-related hazards, based on risks for human health.

PubMed

Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; Van Asselt, E D; Raley, M; Poulsen, M; Korsgaard, H; Bredsdorff, L; Nauta, M; D'agostino, M; Coles, D; Marvin, H J P; Frewer, L J

2018-01-22

This study aimed to critically review methods for ranking risks related to food safety and dietary hazards on the basis of their anticipated human health impacts. A literature review was performed to identify and characterize methods for risk ranking from the fields of food, environmental science and socio-economic sciences. The review used a predefined search protocol, and covered the bibliographic databases Scopus, CAB Abstracts, Web of Sciences, and PubMed over the period 1993-2013. All references deemed relevant, on the basis of predefined evaluation criteria, were included in the review, and the risk ranking method characterized. The methods were then clustered-based on their characteristics-into eleven method categories. These categories included: risk assessment, comparative risk assessment, risk ratio method, scoring method, cost of illness, health adjusted life years (HALY), multi-criteria decision analysis, risk matrix, flow charts/decision trees, stated preference techniques and expert synthesis. Method categories were described by their characteristics, weaknesses and strengths, data resources, and fields of applications. It was concluded there is no single best method for risk ranking. The method to be used should be selected on the basis of risk manager/assessor requirements, data availability, and the characteristics of the method. Recommendations for future use and application are provided.

Site-specific seismic probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis: performances and potential applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tonini, Roberto; Volpe, Manuela; Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Orefice, Simone; Graziani, Laura; Brizuela, Beatriz; Smedile, Alessandra; Romano, Fabrizio; De Martini, Paolo Marco; Maramai, Alessandra; Piatanesi, Alessio; Pantosti, Daniela

2017-04-01

Seismic Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (SPTHA) provides probabilities to exceed different thresholds of tsunami hazard intensity, at a specific site or region and in a given time span, for tsunamis caused by seismic sources. Results obtained by SPTHA (i.e., probabilistic hazard curves and inundation maps) represent a very important input to risk analyses and land use planning. However, the large variability of source parameters implies the definition of a huge number of potential tsunami scenarios, whose omission could lead to a biased analysis. Moreover, tsunami propagation from source to target requires the use of very expensive numerical simulations. At regional scale, the computational cost can be reduced using assumptions on the tsunami modeling (i.e., neglecting non-linear effects, using coarse topo-bathymetric meshes, empirically extrapolating maximum wave heights on the coast). On the other hand, moving to local scale, a much higher resolution is required and such assumptions drop out, since detailed inundation maps require significantly greater computational resources. In this work we apply a multi-step method to perform a site-specific SPTHA which can be summarized in the following steps: i) to perform a regional hazard assessment to account for both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties of the seismic source, by combining the use of an event tree and an ensemble modeling technique; ii) to apply a filtering procedure which use a cluster analysis to define a significantly reduced number of representative scenarios contributing to the hazard of a specific target site; iii) to perform high resolution numerical simulations only for these representative scenarios and for a subset of near field sources placed in very shallow waters and/or whose coseismic displacements induce ground uplift or subsidence at the target. The method is applied to three target areas in the Mediterranean located around the cities of Milazzo (Italy), Thessaloniki (Greece) and Siracusa (Italy). The latter target analysis is enriched by the use of local observed tsunami data, both geological and historical. Indeed, tsunami data-sets available for Siracusa are particularly rich with respect to the scarce and heterogeneous data-sets usually available elsewhere. Therefore, they can represent a further valuable source of information to benchmark and strengthen the results of such kind of studies. The work is funded by the Italian Flagship Project RITMARE, the two EC FP7 ASTARTE (Grant agreement 603839) and STREST (Grant agreement 603389) projects, the TSUMAPS-NEAM (Grant agreement ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26) project and the INGV-DPC Agreement.

Aspergillus sensitization or carriage in cystic fibrosis patients.

PubMed

Fillaux, Judith; Brémont, François; Murris, Marlène; Cassaing, Sophie; Tétu, Laurent; Segonds, Christine; Pipy, Bernard; Magnaval, Jean-François

2014-07-01

Aspergillus fumigatus (Af) sensitization and persistent carriage are deleterious to lung function, but no consensus has been reached defining these medical entities. This work aimed to identify possible predictive factors for patients who become sensitized to Af, compared with a control group of non-sensitized Af carriers. Between 1995 and 2007, 117 pediatric patients were evaluated. Demographic data, CFTR gene mutations, body mass index and FEV1 were recorded. The presence of Af in sputum, the levels of Af-precipitin, total IgE (t-IgE) and specific IgE to Af (Af-IgE) were determined. Patients were divided into 2 groups: (1) "sensitization": level of Af-IgE > 0.35 IU/mL with t-IgE level < 500 IU/mL and (2) "persistent or transient carriage": Af-IgE level ≤ 0.35 IU/mL with either an Af transient or persistent positive culture. A survival analysis was performed with the appearance of Af-IgE in serum as an outcome variable. Severe mutation (hazard ratio = 3.2), FEV1 baseline over 70% of theoretical value (hazard ratio = 4.9), absence of Pa colonization, catalase activity and previous azithromycin administration (hazard ratio = 9.8, 4.1 and 1.9, respectively) were predictive factors for sensitization. We propose a timeline of the biological events and a tree diagram for risk calculation. Two profiles of cystic fibrosis patients can be envisaged: (1) patients with nonsevere mutation but low FEV1 baselines are becoming colonized with Af or (2) patients with high FEV1 baselines who present with severe mutation are more susceptible to the Af sensitization and then to the presentation of an allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis event.

Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

2010-05-01

One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs and benefits of mitigation actions have to be evaluated and compared, weighting them with the probability of occurrence of a specific threatening volcanic event. An action should be taken when the benefit of that action outweighs the costs. It is worth remarking that this strategy does not guarantee to recommend a decision that we would have taken with the benefit of hindsight. However, this strategy will be successful over the long-tem. Furthermore, it has the overwhelming advantage of providing a quantitative decision rule that is set before any emergency, and thus it will be justifiable at any stage of the process. In our present application, we are trying to set up a cost-benefit scheme for the call of an evacuation to protect people in the Auckland Volcanic Field against base surge invasion. Considering the heterogeneity of the urban environment and the size of the region at risk, we propose a cost-benefit scheme that is space dependent, to take into account higher costs when an eruption threatens sensible sites for the city and/or the nation, such as the international airport or the harbour. Finally, we compare our findings with the present Contingency Plan for Auckland.

A hazard and risk classification system for catastrophic rock slope failures in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermanns, R.; Oppikofer, T.; Anda, E.; Blikra, L. H.; Böhme, M.; Bunkholt, H.; Dahle, H.; Devoli, G.; Eikenæs, O.; Fischer, L.; Harbitz, C. B.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Loew, S.; Yugsi Molina, F. X.

2012-04-01

The Geological Survey of Norway carries out systematic geologic mapping of potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway that can cause a catastrophic failure. As catastrophic failure we describe failures that involve substantial fragmentation of the rock mass during run-out and that impact an area larger than that of a rock fall (shadow angle of ca. 28-32° for rock falls). This includes therefore rock slope failures that lead to secondary effects, such as a displacement wave when impacting a water body or damming of a narrow valley. Our systematic mapping revealed more than 280 rock slopes with significant postglacial deformation, which might represent localities of large future rock slope failures. This large number necessitates prioritization of follow-up activities, such as more detailed investigations, periodic monitoring and permanent monitoring and early-warning. In the past hazard and risk were assessed qualitatively for some sites, however, in order to compare sites so that political and financial decisions can be taken, it was necessary to develop a quantitative hazard and risk classification system. A preliminary classification system was presented and discussed with an expert group of Norwegian and international experts and afterwards adapted following their recommendations. This contribution presents the concept of this final hazard and risk classification that should be used in Norway in the upcoming years. Historical experience and possible future rockslide scenarios in Norway indicate that hazard assessment of large rock slope failures must be scenario-based, because intensity of deformation and present displacement rates, as well as the geological structures activated by the sliding rock mass can vary significantly on a given slope. In addition, for each scenario the run-out of the rock mass has to be evaluated. This includes the secondary effects such as generation of displacement waves or landslide damming of valleys with the potential of later outburst floods. It became obvious that large rock slope failures cannot be evaluated on a slope scale with frequency analyses of historical and prehistorical events only, as multiple rockslides have occurred within one century on a single slope that prior to the recent failures had been inactive for several thousand years. In addition, a systematic analysis on temporal distribution indicates that rockslide activity following deglaciation after the Last Glacial Maximum has been much higher than throughout the Holocene. Therefore the classification system has to be based primarily on the geological conditions on the deforming slope and on the deformation rates and only to a lesser weight on a frequency analyses. Our hazard classification therefore is primarily based on several criteria: 1) Development of the back-scarp, 2) development of the lateral release surfaces, 3) development of the potential basal sliding surface, 4) morphologic expression of the basal sliding surface, 5) kinematic feasibility tests for different displacement mechanisms, 6) landslide displacement rates, 7) change of displacement rates (acceleration), 8) increase of rockfall activity on the unstable rock slope, 9) Presence post-glacial events of similar size along the affected slope and its vicinity. For each of these criteria several conditions are possible to choose from (e.g. different velocity classes for the displacement rate criterion). A score is assigned to each condition and the sum of all scores gives the total susceptibility score. Since many of these observations are somewhat uncertain, the classification system is organized in a decision tree where probabilities can be assigned to each condition. All possibilities in the decision tree are computed and the individual probabilities giving the same total score are summed. Basic statistics show the minimum and maximum total scores of a scenario, as well as the mean and modal value. The final output is a cumulative frequency distribution of the susceptibility scores that can be divided into several classes, which are interpreted as susceptibility classes (very high, high, medium, low, and very low). Today the Norwegian Planning and Building Act uses hazard classes with annual probabilities of impact on buildings producing damages (<1/100, <1/1000, <1/5000 and zero for critical buildings). However, up to now there is not enough scientific knowledge to predict large rock slope failures in these strict classes. Therefore, the susceptibility classes will be matched with the hazard classes from the Norwegian Building Act (e.g. very high susceptibility represents the hazard class with annual probability >1/100). The risk analysis focuses on the potential fatalities of a worst case rock slide scenario and its secondary effects only and is done in consequence classes with a decimal logarithmic scale. However we recommend for all high risk objects that municipalities carry out detailed risk analyses. Finally, the hazard and risk classification system will give recommendations where surveillance in form of continuous 24/7 monitoring systems coupled with early-warning systems (high risk class) or periodic monitoring (medium risk class) should be carried out. These measures are understood as to reduce the risk of life loss due to a rock slope failure close to 0 as population can be evacuated on time if a change of stability situation occurs. The final hazard and risk classification for all potentially unstable rock slopes in Norway, including all data used for its classification will be published within the national landslide database (available on www.skrednett.no).

Pathway-based predictive approaches for non-animal assessment of acute inhalation toxicity.

PubMed

Clippinger, Amy J; Allen, David; Behrsing, Holger; BéruBé, Kelly A; Bolger, Michael B; Casey, Warren; DeLorme, Michael; Gaça, Marianna; Gehen, Sean C; Glover, Kyle; Hayden, Patrick; Hinderliter, Paul; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Iskandar, Anita; Keyser, Brian; Luettich, Karsta; Ma-Hock, Lan; Maione, Anna G; Makena, Patrudu; Melbourne, Jodie; Milchak, Lawrence; Ng, Sheung P; Paini, Alicia; Page, Kathryn; Patlewicz, Grace; Prieto, Pilar; Raabe, Hans; Reinke, Emily N; Roper, Clive; Rose, Jane; Sharma, Monita; Spoo, Wayne; Thorne, Peter S; Wilson, Daniel M; Jarabek, Annie M

2018-06-20

New approaches are needed to assess the effects of inhaled substances on human health. These approaches will be based on mechanisms of toxicity, an understanding of dosimetry, and the use of in silico modeling and in vitro test methods. In order to accelerate wider implementation of such approaches, development of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) can help identify and address gaps in our understanding of relevant parameters for model input and mechanisms, and optimize non-animal approaches that can be used to investigate key events of toxicity. This paper describes the AOPs and the toolbox of in vitro and in silico models that can be used to assess the key events leading to toxicity following inhalation exposure. Because the optimal testing strategy will vary depending on the substance of interest, here we present a decision tree approach to identify an appropriate non-animal integrated testing strategy that incorporates consideration of a substance's physicochemical properties, relevant mechanisms of toxicity, and available in silico models and in vitro test methods. This decision tree can facilitate standardization of the testing approaches. Case study examples are presented to provide a basis for proof-of-concept testing to illustrate the utility of non-animal approaches to inform hazard identification and risk assessment of humans exposed to inhaled substances. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Wind Energy Conversion by Plant-Inspired Designs

PubMed Central

Mosher, Curtis L.; Henderson, Eric R.

2017-01-01

In 2008 the U.S. Department of Energy set a target of 20% wind energy by 2030. To date, induction-based turbines form the mainstay of this effort, but turbines are noisy, perceived as unattractive, a potential hazard to bats and birds, and their height hampers deployment in residential settings. Several groups have proposed that artificial plants containing piezoelectric elements may harvest wind energy sufficient to contribute to a carbon-neutral energy economy. Here we measured energy conversion by cottonwood-inspired piezoelectric leaves, and by a “vertical flapping stalk”—the most efficient piezo-leaf previously reported. We emulated cottonwood for its unusually ordered, periodic flutter, properties conducive to piezo excitation. Integrated over 0°–90° (azimuthal) of incident airflow, cottonwood mimics outperformed the vertical flapping stalk, but they produced << daW per conceptualized tree. In contrast, a modest-sized cottonwood tree may dissipate ~ 80 W via leaf motion alone. A major limitation of piezo-transduction is charge generation, which scales with capacitance (area). We thus tested a rudimentary, cattail-inspired leaf with stacked elements wired in parallel. Power increased systematically with capacitance as expected, but extrapolation to acre-sized assemblages predicts << daW. Although our results suggest that present piezoelectric materials will not harvest mid-range power from botanic mimics of convenient size, recent developments in electrostriction and triboelectric systems may offer more fertile ground to further explore this concept. PMID:28085933

Assessing Forest NPP: BIOME-BGC Predictions versus BEF Derived Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasenauer, H.; Pietsch, S. A.; Petritsch, R.

2007-05-01

Forest productivity has always been a major issue within sustainable forest management. While in the past terrestrial forest inventory data have been the major source for assessing forest productivity, recent developments in ecosystem modeling offer an alternative approach using ecosystem models such as Biome-BGC to estimate Net Primary Production (NPP). In this study we compare two terrestrial driven approaches for assessing NPP: (i) estimates from a species specific adaptation of the biogeochemical ecosystem model BIOME-BGC calibrated for Alpine conditions; and (ii) NPP estimates derived from inventory data using biomass expansion factors (BEF). The forest inventory data come from 624 sample plots across Austria and consist of repeated individual tree observations and include growth as well as soil and humus information. These locations are covered with spruce, beech, oak, pine and larch stands, thus addressing the main Austrian forest types. 144 locations were previously used in a validating effort to produce species-specific parameter estimates of the ecosystem model. The remaining 480 sites are from the Austrian National Forest Soil Survey carried out at the Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape (BFW). By using diameter at breast height (dbh) and height (h) volume and subsequently biomass of individual trees were calculated, aggregated for the whole forest stand and compared with the model output. Regression analyses were performed for both volume and biomass estimates.

The Efficiency of Random Forest Method for Shoreline Extraction from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 Imageries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bayram, B.; Erdem, F.; Akpinar, B.; Ince, A. K.; Bozkurt, S.; Catal Reis, H.; Seker, D. Z.

2017-11-01

Coastal monitoring plays a vital role in environmental planning and hazard management related issues. Since shorelines are fundamental data for environment management, disaster management, coastal erosion studies, modelling of sediment transport and coastal morphodynamics, various techniques have been developed to extract shorelines. Random Forest is one of these techniques which is used in this study for shoreline extraction.. This algorithm is a machine learning method based on decision trees. Decision trees analyse classes of training data creates rules for classification. In this study, Terkos region has been chosen for the proposed method within the scope of "TUBITAK Project (Project No: 115Y718) titled "Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for Sustainable Coastal Zone Monitoring Model - Three-Dimensional Automatic Coastline Extraction and Analysis: Istanbul-Terkos Example". Random Forest algorithm has been implemented to extract the shoreline of the Black Sea where near the lake from LANDSAT-8 and GOKTURK-2 satellite imageries taken in 2015. The MATLAB environment was used for classification. To obtain land and water-body classes, the Random Forest method has been applied to NIR bands of LANDSAT-8 (5th band) and GOKTURK-2 (4th band) imageries. Each image has been digitized manually and shorelines obtained for accuracy assessment. According to accuracy assessment results, Random Forest method is efficient for both medium and high resolution images for shoreline extraction studies.

Wind Energy Conversion by Plant-Inspired Designs.

PubMed

McCloskey, Michael A; Mosher, Curtis L; Henderson, Eric R

2017-01-01

In 2008 the U.S. Department of Energy set a target of 20% wind energy by 2030. To date, induction-based turbines form the mainstay of this effort, but turbines are noisy, perceived as unattractive, a potential hazard to bats and birds, and their height hampers deployment in residential settings. Several groups have proposed that artificial plants containing piezoelectric elements may harvest wind energy sufficient to contribute to a carbon-neutral energy economy. Here we measured energy conversion by cottonwood-inspired piezoelectric leaves, and by a "vertical flapping stalk"-the most efficient piezo-leaf previously reported. We emulated cottonwood for its unusually ordered, periodic flutter, properties conducive to piezo excitation. Integrated over 0°-90° (azimuthal) of incident airflow, cottonwood mimics outperformed the vertical flapping stalk, but they produced < daW per conceptualized tree. In contrast, a modest-sized cottonwood tree may dissipate ~ 80 W via leaf motion alone. A major limitation of piezo-transduction is charge generation, which scales with capacitance (area). We thus tested a rudimentary, cattail-inspired leaf with stacked elements wired in parallel. Power increased systematically with capacitance as expected, but extrapolation to acre-sized assemblages predicts < daW. Although our results suggest that present piezoelectric materials will not harvest mid-range power from botanic mimics of convenient size, recent developments in electrostriction and triboelectric systems may offer more fertile ground to further explore this concept.

A multi-source probabilistic hazard assessment of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Folch, Arnau; Macedonio, Giovanni; Tonini, Roberto

2015-04-01

In this study we present the results obtained from a long-term Probabilistic Hazard Assessment (PHA) of tephra dispersal in the Neapolitan area. Usual PHA for tephra dispersal needs the definition of eruptive scenarios (usually by grouping eruption sizes and possible vent positions in a limited number of classes) with associated probabilities, a meteorological dataset covering a representative time period, and a tephra dispersal model. PHA then results from combining simulations considering different volcanological and meteorological conditions through weights associated to their specific probability of occurrence. However, volcanological parameters (i.e., erupted mass, eruption column height, eruption duration, bulk granulometry, fraction of aggregates) typically encompass a wide range of values. Because of such a natural variability, single representative scenarios or size classes cannot be adequately defined using single values for the volcanological inputs. In the present study, we use a method that accounts for this within-size-class variability in the framework of Event Trees. The variability of each parameter is modeled with specific Probability Density Functions, and meteorological and volcanological input values are chosen by using a stratified sampling method. This procedure allows for quantifying hazard without relying on the definition of scenarios, thus avoiding potential biases introduced by selecting single representative scenarios. Embedding this procedure into the Bayesian Event Tree scheme enables the tephra fall PHA and its epistemic uncertainties. We have appied this scheme to analyze long-term tephra fall PHA from Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, in a multi-source paradigm. We integrate two tephra dispersal models (the analytical HAZMAP and the numerical FALL3D) into BET_VH. The ECMWF reanalysis dataset are used for exploring different meteorological conditions. The results obtained show that PHA accounting for the whole natural variability are consistent with previous probabilities maps elaborated for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei on the basis of single representative scenarios, but show significant differences. In particular, the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 5%, accounting for the whole range of variability (that is, from small violent strombolian to plinian eruptions), is similar to that displayed in the maps based on the medium magnitude reference eruption, but it is of a smaller extent. This is due to the relatively higher weight of the small magnitude eruptions considered in this study, but neglected in the reference scenario maps. On the other hand, in our new maps the area characterized by a 300 kg/m2-load exceedance probability larger than 1% is much larger than that of the medium magnitude reference eruption, due to the contribution of plinian eruptions at lower probabilities, again neglected in the reference scenario maps.

JANNAF 24th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee and 36th Combustion Subcommittee Joint Meeting. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fry, Ronald S. (Editor); Gannaway, Mary T. (Editor)

1999-01-01

Volume 1, the first of three volumes is a compilation of 16 unclassified/unlimited-technical papers presented at the Joint Army-Navy-NASA-Air Force (JANNAF) 24th Airbreathing Propulsion Subcommittee and 36th Combustion Subcommittee held jointly with the 181 Propulsion Systems Hazards Subcommittee. The meeting was held on 18-21 October 1999 at NASA Kennedy Space Center and The DoubleTree Oceanfront Hotel, Cocoa Beach, Florida. Topics covered include overviews of RBCC and PDE hypersonic technology, Hyper-X propulsion ground testing, development of JP-8 for hypersonic vehicle applications, numerical simulation of dual-mode SJ combustion, V&V of M&S computer codes, MHD SJ and Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) launch vehicle concepts, and Pulse Detonation Engine (PDE) propulsion technology development including fundamental investigations, modeling, aerodynamics, operation and performance.

Integrating remote sensing and terrain data in forest fire modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medler, Michael Johns

Forest fire policies are changing. Managers now face conflicting imperatives to re-establish pre-suppression fire regimes, while simultaneously preventing resource destruction. They must, therefore, understand the spatial patterns of fires. Geographers can facilitate this understanding by developing new techniques for mapping fire behavior. This dissertation develops such techniques for mapping recent fires and using these maps to calibrate models of potential fire hazards. In so doing, it features techniques that strive to address the inherent complexity of modeling the combinations of variables found in most ecological systems. Image processing techniques were used to stratify the elements of terrain, slope, elevation, and aspect. These stratification images were used to assure sample placement considered the role of terrain in fire behavior. Examination of multiple stratification images indicated samples were placed representatively across a controlled range of scales. The incorporation of terrain data also improved preliminary fire hazard classification accuracy by 40%, compared with remotely sensed data alone. A Kauth-Thomas transformation (KT) of pre-fire and post-fire Thematic Mapper (TM) remotely sensed data produced brightness, greenness, and wetness images. Image subtraction indicated fire induced change in brightness, greenness, and wetness. Field data guided a fuzzy classification of these change images. Because fuzzy classification can characterize a continuum of a phenomena where discrete classification may produce artificial borders, fuzzy classification was found to offer a range of fire severity information unavailable with discrete classification. These mapped fire patterns were used to calibrate a model of fire hazards for the entire mountain range. Pre-fire TM, and a digital elevation model produced a set of co-registered images. Training statistics were developed from 30 polygons associated with the previously mapped fire severity. Fuzzy classifications of potential burn patterns were produced from these images. Observed field data values were displayed over the hazard imagery to indicate the effectiveness of the model. Areas that burned without suppression during maximum fire severity are predicted best. Areas with widely spaced trees and grassy understory appear to be misrepresented, perhaps as a consequence of inaccuracies in the initial fire mapping.

Satellite Image-based Estimates of Snow Water Equivalence in Restored Ponderosa Pine Forests in Northern Arizona

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sankey, T.; Springer, A. E.; O'Donnell, F. C.; Donald, J.; McVay, J.; Masek Lopez, S.

2014-12-01

The U.S. Forest Service plans to conduct forest restoration treatments through the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) on hundreds of thousands of acres of ponderosa pine forest in northern Arizona over the next 20 years with the goals of reducing wildfire hazard and improving forest health. The 4FRI's key objective is to thin and burn the forests to create within-stand openings that "promote snowpack accumulation and retention which benefit groundwater recharge and watershed processes at the fine (1 to 10 acres) scale". However, little is known about how these openings created by restoration treatments affect snow water equivalence (SWE) and soil moisture, which are key parts of the water balance that greatly influence water availability for healthy trees and for downstream water users in the Sonoran Desert. We have examined forest canopy cover by calculating a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a key indicator of green vegetation cover, using Landsat satellite data. We have then compared NDVI between treatments at our study sites in northern Arizona and have found statistically significant differences in tree canopy cover between treatments. The control units have significantly greater forest canopy cover than the treated units. The thinned units also have significantly greater tree canopy cover than the thin-and-burn units. Winter season Landsat images have also been analyzed to calculate Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), a key indicator of snow water equivalence and snow accumulation at the treated and untreated forests. The NDSI values from these dates are examined to determine if snow accumulation and snow water equivalence vary between treatments at our study sites. NDSI is significantly greater at the treated units than the control units. In particular, the thinned forest units have significantly greater snow cover than the control units. Our results indicate that forest restoration treatments result in increased snow pack accumulation and this increase can be efficiently estimated at a landscape scale using satellite data.

Effects of protection forests on rockfall risks: implementation in the Swiss risk concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trappmann, Daniel; Moos, Christine; Fehlmann, Michael; Ernst, Jacqueline; Sandri, Arthur; Dorren, Luuk; Stoffel, Markus

2016-04-01

Forests growing on slopes below active rockfall cliffs can provide effective protection for human lives and infrastructures. The risk-based approach for natural hazards in Switzerland shall take such biological measures just like existing technical protective measures into account, provided that certain criteria regarding condition, maintenance and durability are met. This contribution describes a project in which we are investigating how the effects of protection forests can be considered in rockfall risk analyses in an appropriate way. In principle, protection forests reduce rockfall risks in three different ways: (i) reduction of the event magnitude (energy) due to collisions with tree stems; (ii) reduction of frequency of occurrence of a given scenario (block volume arriving at the damage potential); (iii) reduction of spatial probability of occurrence (spread and runout) of a given scenario in case of multiple fragments during one event. The aim of this work is to develop methods for adequately implementing these three effects of rockfall protection forests in risk calculations. To achieve this, we use rockfall simulations taking collisions with trees into account and detailed field validation. On five test sites, detailed knowledge on past rockfall activity is gathered by combining investigations of impacted trees, analysis of documented historical events, and deposits in the field. Based on this empirical data on past rockfalls, a methodology is developed that allows transferring real past rockfall activity to simulation results obtained with the three-dimensional, process-based model Rockyfor3D. Different ways of quantifying the protective role of forests will be considered by comparing simulation results with and without forest cover. Combining these different research approaches, systematic considerations shall lead to the development of methods for adequate inclusion of the protective effects of forests in risk calculations. The applicability of the developed methods will be tested on the case study slopes in order to ensure practical applicability to a broad range of rockfall situations on forested slopes.

Fire Regime and Land Abandonment in European Russia: Case Study of Smolensk Oblast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krylov, A.; McCarty, J. L.; Potapov, P.; Turubanova, S.; Prishchepov, A. V.; Manisha, A.; Romanenkov, V.; Rukhovitch, D.; Koroleva, P.; Hansen, M.

2014-12-01

Fires in anthropogenically-dominated landscapes are generally attributed to ecosystem management, agriculture, and policy drivers. In European Russia, fire mainly occurring on agricultural lands, wetlands, and abandoned lands. In the agricultural practice in Russia prescribed fires are believed to increase pasture and hay productivity, suppress trees and shrub expansion, and reduce fire hazards, with fire frequency fire dependent on land use and agricultural practices. The large-scale socio-economic transition since the fall of the Soviet Union has led to changes in land use and land management, including land abandonment and changing agricultural practices. In June 2014, an extensive field campaign was completed in the Smolensk Oblast, located approximately two hundred kilometers west of Moscow on the border with Belarus. Our field sampling was based on circa 1985 Landsat-based forest cover map (Potapov et al., 2014). Points were randomly selected from the non-forested class of the 1985 classification, prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Of total field collects, 55% points were sampled on land in either early or late stage of abandonment, 15% from actively cropped fields, and 30% from hay or pasture. Fire frequency was calculated for the 108 field points using 1 km Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) active fire data for years 2000-2014. Also we calculated percent of points burned in spring 2014 using 30 m Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data to derive burn scars. Actively cropped fields had lowest burn frequency while abandoned lands - early and late stage abandonment - had highest frequency. Fire frequency was significantly higher on wet soils than dry soils, with no relationship between fire frequency and tree canopy cover. We hypothesize, higher fire frequency on abandoned lands was likely due to greater fuel loads and because of traditional belief in rural Russia that fire is efficient way to suppress tree and shrub expansion.

Tick (Ixodes ricinus) abundance and seasonality at recreational sites in the UK: hazards in relation to fine-scale habitat types revealed by complementary sampling methods.

PubMed

Dobson, Andrew D M; Taylor, Jennifer L; Randolph, Sarah E

2011-06-01

The seasonal risk to humans of picking up Ixodes ricinus ticks in different habitats at 3 recreational sites in the UK was assessed. A comprehensive range of vegetation types was sampled at 3-weekly intervals for 2 years, using standard blanket-dragging complemented by woollen leggings and square 'heel flags'. Ticks were found in all vegetation types sampled, including short grass close to car parks, but highest densities were consistently found in plots with trees present. Blankets picked up the greatest number of ticks, but heel flags provided important complementary counts of the immature stages in bracken plots; they showed clearly that the decline in tick numbers on blankets in early summer was due to the seasonal growth of vegetation that lifted the blanket clear of the typical questing height, but in reality ticks remained abundant through the summer. Leggings picked up only 11% of the total nymphs and 22% of total adults counted, but this still represented a significant hazard to humans. These results should prompt a greater awareness of the fine-scale distribution of this species in relation to human activities that determines the most likely zones of contact between humans and ticks. Risk communication may then be designed accordingly. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Earth observations taken by Expedition 38 crewmember

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-12-06

ISS038-E-012569 (6 Dec. 2013) --- Sollipulli Caldera is featured in this image photographed by an Expedition 38 crew member on the International Space Station. While active volcanoes are obvious targets of interest from the standpoint of natural hazards, there are some dormant volcanoes that nevertheless warrant concern due to their geologic history of activity. One such volcano is Sollipulli, located in central Chile near the border with Argentina in the southern Andes Mountains of South America. The volcano is located within the Parque Nacional Villarica of Chile. This photograph highlights the summit (2,282 meters above sea level) of the volcano and the bare slopes above the tree line. Lower elevations are covered with the green forests indicative of Southern Hemisphere summer. The summit of the volcano is occupied by a four-kilometer-wide caldera, currently filled with a snow-covered glacier (center). While most calderas form following violent explosive eruptions, the types of volcanic rock and deposits associated with such an event have not been found at Sollipulli. The geologic evidence does indicate explosive activity 2,900 years before present, and production of lava flows approximately 700 years before present. Together with craters and scoria cones located along the outer flanks of the caldera, scientists say this history suggests that Sollipulli could experience violent eruptions again, presenting an immediate potential hazard to such towns as Melipeuco in addition to the greater region.

Green Synthesis of Three-Dimensional Hybrid N-Doped ORR Electro-Catalysts Derived from Apricot Sap

PubMed Central

Karunagaran, Ramesh; Coghlan, Campbell; Gulati, Karan; Tung, Tran Thanh; Doonan, Christian

2018-01-01

Rapid depletion of fossil fuel and increased energy demand has initiated a need for an alternative energy source to cater for the growing energy demand. Fuel cells are an enabling technology for the conversion of sustainable energy carriers (e.g., renewable hydrogen or bio-gas) into electrical power and heat. However, the hazardous raw materials and complicated experimental procedures used to produce electro-catalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in fuel cells has been a concern for the effective implementation of these catalysts. Therefore, environmentally friendly and low-cost oxygen reduction electro-catalysts synthesised from natural products are considered as an attractive alternative to currently used synthetic materials involving hazardous chemicals and waste. Herein, we describe a unique integrated oxygen reduction three-dimensional composite catalyst containing both nitrogen-doped carbon fibers (N-CF) and carbon microspheres (N-CMS) synthesised from apricot sap from an apricot tree. The synthesis was carried out via three-step process, including apricot sap resin preparation, hydrothermal treatment, and pyrolysis with a nitrogen precursor. The nitrogen-doped electro-catalysts synthesised were characterised by SEM, TEM, XRD, Raman, and BET techniques followed by electro-chemical testing for ORR catalysis activity. The obtained catalyst material shows high catalytic activity for ORR in the basic medium by facilitating the reaction via a four-electron transfer mechanism. PMID:29382103

Green Synthesis of Three-Dimensional Hybrid N-Doped ORR Electro-Catalysts Derived from Apricot Sap.

PubMed

Karunagaran, Ramesh; Coghlan, Campbell; Shearer, Cameron; Tran, Diana; Gulati, Karan; Tung, Tran Thanh; Doonan, Christian; Losic, Dusan

2018-01-28

Rapid depletion of fossil fuel and increased energy demand has initiated a need for an alternative energy source to cater for the growing energy demand. Fuel cells are an enabling technology for the conversion of sustainable energy carriers (e.g., renewable hydrogen or bio-gas) into electrical power and heat. However, the hazardous raw materials and complicated experimental procedures used to produce electro-catalysts for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in fuel cells has been a concern for the effective implementation of these catalysts. Therefore, environmentally friendly and low-cost oxygen reduction electro-catalysts synthesised from natural products are considered as an attractive alternative to currently used synthetic materials involving hazardous chemicals and waste. Herein, we describe a unique integrated oxygen reduction three-dimensional composite catalyst containing both nitrogen-doped carbon fibers (N-CF) and carbon microspheres (N-CMS) synthesised from apricot sap from an apricot tree. The synthesis was carried out via three-step process, including apricot sap resin preparation, hydrothermal treatment, and pyrolysis with a nitrogen precursor. The nitrogen-doped electro-catalysts synthesised were characterised by SEM, TEM, XRD, Raman, and BET techniques followed by electro-chemical testing for ORR catalysis activity. The obtained catalyst material shows high catalytic activity for ORR in the basic medium by facilitating the reaction via a four-electron transfer mechanism.

Uncertainty evaluation of a regional real-time system for rain-induced landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Stanley, Thomas; Yatheendradas, Soni

2015-04-01

A new prototype regional model and evaluation framework has been developed over Central America and the Caribbean region using satellite-based information including precipitation estimates, modeled soil moisture, topography, soils, as well as regionally available datasets such as road networks and distance to fault zones. The algorithm framework incorporates three static variables: a susceptibility map; a 24-hr rainfall triggering threshold; and an antecedent soil moisture variable threshold, which have been calibrated using historic landslide events. The thresholds are regionally heterogeneous and are based on the percentile distribution of the rainfall or antecedent moisture time series. A simple decision tree algorithm framework integrates all three variables with the rainfall and soil moisture time series and generates a landslide nowcast in real-time based on the previous 24 hours over this region. This system has been evaluated using several available landslide inventories over the Central America and Caribbean region. Spatiotemporal uncertainty and evaluation metrics of the model are presented here based on available landslides reports. This work also presents a probabilistic representation of potential landslide activity over the region which can be used to further refine and improve the real-time landslide hazard assessment system as well as better identify and characterize the uncertainties inherent in this type of regional approach. The landslide algorithm provides a flexible framework to improve hazard estimation and reduce uncertainty at any spatial and temporal scale.

[Design of an HACCP program for a cocoa processing facility].

PubMed

López D'Sola, Patrizia; Sandia, María Gabriela; Bou Rached, Lizet; Hernández Serrano, Pilar

2012-12-01

The HACCP plan is a food safety management tool used to control physical, chemical and biological hazards associated to food processing through all the processing chain. The aim of this work is to design a HACCP Plan for a Venezuelan cocoa processing facility.The production of safe food products requires that the HACCP system be built upon a solid foundation of prerequisite programs such as Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) and Sanitation Standard Operating Procedures (SSOP). The existence and effectiveness of these prerequisite programs were previously assessed.Good Agriculture Practices (GAP) audit to cocoa nibs suppliers were performed. To develop the HACCP plan, the five preliminary tasks and the seven HACCP principles were accomplished according to Codex Alimentarius procedures. Three Critical Control Points (CCP) were identified using a decision tree: winnowing (control of ochratoxin A), roasting (Salmonella control) and metallic particles detection. For each CCP, Critical limits were established, the Monitoring procedures, Corrective actions, Procedures for Verification and Documentation concerning all procedures and records appropriate to these principles and their application was established. To implement and maintain a HACCP plan for this processing plant is suggested. Recently OchratoxinA (OTA) has been related to cocoa beans. Although the shell separation from the nib has been reported as an effective measure to control this chemical hazard, ochratoxin prevalence study in cocoa beans produced in the country is recommended, and validate the winnowing step as well

Historical dominance of low-severity fire in dry and wet mixed-conifer forest habitats of the endangered terrestrial Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Margolis, Ellis; Malevich, Steven B.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic alteration of ecosystem processes confounds forest management and conservation of rare, declining species. Restoration of forest structure and fire hazard reduction are central goals of forest management policy in the western United States, but restoration priorities and treatments have become increasingly contentious. Numerous studies have documented changes in fire regimes, forest stand structure and species composition following a century of fire exclusion in dry, frequent-fire forests of the western U.S. (e.g., ponderosa pine and dry mixed-conifer). In contrast, wet mixed-conifer forests are thought to have historically burned infrequently with mixed- or high-severity fire—resulting in reduced impacts from fire exclusion and low restoration need—but data are limited. In this study we quantified the current forest habitat of the federally endangered, terrestrial Jemez Mountains salamander (Plethodon neomexicanus) and compared it to dendroecological reconstructions of historical habitat (e.g., stand structure and composition), and fire regime parameters along a gradient from upper ponderosa pine to wet mixed-conifer forests. We found that current fire-free intervals in Jemez Mountains salamander habitat (116–165 years) are significantly longer than historical intervals, even in wet mixed-conifer forests. Historical mean fire intervals ranged from 10 to 42 years along the forest gradient. Low-severity fires were historically dominant across all forest types (92 of 102 fires). Although some mixed- or highseverity fire historically occurred at 67% of the plots over the last four centuries, complete mortality within 1.0 ha plots was rare, and asynchronous within and among sites. Climate was an important driver of temporal variability in fire severity, such that mixed- and high-severity fires were associated with more extreme drought than low-severity fires. Tree density in dry conifer forests historically ranged from open (90 trees/ha) to moderately dense (400 trees/ha), but has doubled on average since fire exclusion. Infill of fire-sensitive tree species has contributed to the conversion of historically dry mixedconifer to wet mixed-conifer forest. We conclude that low-severity fire, which has been absent for over a century, was a critical ecosystem process across the forest gradient in Jemez Mountains salamander habitat, and thus is an important element of ecosystem restoration, resilience, and rare species recovery.

NASA Taxonomies for Searching Problem Reports and FMEAs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Throop, David R.

2006-01-01

Many types of hazard and risk analyses are used during the life cycle of complex systems, including Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis, Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis, Probabilistic Risk Assessment, Reliability Analysis and analysis of Problem Reporting and Corrective Action (PRACA) databases. The success of these methods depends on the availability of input data and the analysts knowledge. Standard nomenclature can increase the reusability of hazard, risk and problem data. When nomenclature in the source texts is not standard, taxonomies with mapping words (sets of rough synonyms) can be combined with semantic search to identify items and tag them with metadata based on a rich standard nomenclature. Semantic search uses word meanings in the context of parsed phrases to find matches. The NASA taxonomies provide the word meanings. Spacecraft taxonomies and ontologies (generalization hierarchies with attributes and relationships, based on terms meanings) are being developed for types of subsystems, functions, entities, hazards and failures. The ontologies are broad and general, covering hardware, software and human systems. Semantic search of Space Station texts was used to validate and extend the taxonomies. The taxonomies have also been used to extract system connectivity (interaction) models and functions from requirements text. Now the Reconciler semantic search tool and the taxonomies are being applied to improve search in the Space Shuttle PRACA database, to discover recurring patterns of failure. Usual methods of string search and keyword search fall short because the entries are terse and have numerous shortcuts (irregular abbreviations, nonstandard acronyms, cryptic codes) and modifier words cannot be used in sentence context to refine the search. The limited and fixed FMEA categories associated with the entries do not make the fine distinctions needed in the search. The approach assigns PRACA report titles to problem classes in the taxonomy. Each ontology class includes mapping words - near-synonyms naming different manifestations of that problem class. The mapping words for Problems, Entities and Functions are converted to a canonical form plus any of a small set of modifier words (e.g. non-uniformity NOT + UNIFORM.) The report titles are parsed as sentences if possible, or treated as a flat sequence of word tokens if parsing fails. When canonical forms in the title match mapping words, the PRACA entry is associated with the corresponding Problem, Entity or Function in the ontology. The user can search for types of failures associated with types of equipment, clustering by type of problem (e.g., all bearings found with problems of being uneven: rough, irregular, gritty ). The results could also be used for tagging PRACA report entries with rich metadata. This approach could also be applied to searching and tagging failure modes, failure effects and mitigations in FMEAs. In the pilot work, parsing 52K+ truncated titles (the test cases that were available), has resulted in identification of both a type of equipment and type of problem in about 75% of the cases. The results are displayed in a manner analogous to Google search results. The effort has also led to the enrichment of the taxonomy, adding some new categories and many new mapping words. Further work would make enhancements that have been identified for improving the clustering and further reducing the false alarm rate. (In searching for recurring problems, good clustering is more important than reducing false alarms). Searching complete PRACA reports should lead to immediate improvement.

Long-term control of root growth

DOEpatents

Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

1992-05-26

A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

A Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Groundwater-Related Risks at Excavation Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurado, A.; de Gaspari, F.; Vilarrasa, V.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Fernandez-Garcia, D.; Tartakovsky, D. M.; Bolster, D.

2010-12-01

Excavation sites such as those associated with the construction of subway lines, railways and highway tunnels are hazardous places, posing risks to workers, machinery and surrounding buildings. Many of these risks can be groundwater related. In this work we develop a general framework based on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantify such risks. This approach is compatible with standard PRA practices and it employs many well-developed risk analysis tools, such as fault trees. The novelty and computational challenges of the proposed approach stem from the reliance on stochastic differential equations, rather than reliability databases, to compute the probabilities of basic events. The general framework is applied to a specific case study in Spain. It is used to estimate and minimize risks for a potential construction site of an underground station for the new subway line in the Barcelona metropolitan area.

Study on Failure of Third-Party Damage for Urban Gas Pipeline Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation.

PubMed

Li, Jun; Zhang, Hong; Han, Yinshan; Wang, Baodong

2016-01-01

Focusing on the diversity, complexity and uncertainty of the third-party damage accident, the failure probability of third-party damage to urban gas pipeline was evaluated on the theory of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The fault tree of third-party damage containing 56 basic events was built by hazard identification of third-party damage. The fuzzy evaluation of basic event probabilities were conducted by the expert judgment method and using membership function of fuzzy set. The determination of the weight of each expert and the modification of the evaluation opinions were accomplished using the improved analytic hierarchy process, and the failure possibility of the third-party to urban gas pipeline was calculated. Taking gas pipelines of a certain large provincial capital city as an example, the risk assessment structure of the method was proved to conform to the actual situation, which provides the basis for the safety risk prevention.

Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

PubMed

Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

2010-11-15

The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motorcycle fatalities in Sweden.

PubMed

Björnstig, U L; Bylund, P O; Lekander, T; Brorsson, B

1985-01-01

An analysis has been made of 129 motorcycle fatalities, 119 men and 10 women, who were killed in 125 accidents during 1979-1981. Sixty-seven of the 125 drivers were teenagers. Twenty-seven drivers had no licence. Ninety-nine riders were killed on sections of roads with a speed limit of 70 km/h or less. More than half of the decreased died in collisions with other vehicles. Eight lost their lives in accidents where an animal, in seven cases a moose, was involved, and six people died in wobbling accidents. The injuries were often multiple and serious, most of the riders died of head or cervical spine injuries (73) or of chest injuries (44). Altogether, 30 riders died in accidents in which people who were under the influence of alcohol were involved. Raising the minimum driving age, minimizing the possibility of illicit driving and elimination of such roadside hazards as poles and trees would reduce the fatality rate.

A mixed-methods analysis of logging injuries in Montana and Idaho.

PubMed

Lagerstrom, Elise; Magzamen, Sheryl; Rosecrance, John

2017-12-01

Despite advances in mechanization, logging continues to be one of the most dangerous occupations in the United States. Logging in the Intermountain West region (Montana and Idaho) is especially hazardous due to steep terrain, extreme weather, and remote work locations. We implemented a mixed-methods approach combining analyses of workers' compensation claims and focus groups to identify factors associated with injuries and fatalities in the logging industry. Inexperienced workers (>6 months experience) accounted for over 25% of claims. Sprain/strain injuries were the most common, accounting for 36% of claims, while fatalities had the highest median claim cost ($274 411). Focus groups identified job tasks involving felling trees, skidding, and truck driving as having highest risk. Injury prevention efforts should focus on training related to safe work methods (especially for inexperienced workers), the development of a safety culture and safety leadership, as well as implementation of engineering controls. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Root tensile strength of grey alder and mountain maple grown on a coarse grained eco-engineered slope in the Swiss Alps related to wood anatomical features

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kink, Dimitri; Bast, Alexander; Meyer, Christine; Meier, Wolfgang; Egli, Markus; Gärtner, Holger

2014-05-01

Steep, vegetation free slopes are a common feature in alpine areas. The material covering these slopes is prone to all kind of erosional processes, resulting in a high risk potential for population and infrastructure. This risk potential is likely to increase with the predicted change in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation events. A potential increase in extreme precipitation events will also result in a higher magnitude and frequency of erosional processes. In the Swiss Alps as in many other mountainous areas, there is a need to stabilize these slopes to reduce their direct or indirect hazard potential. In this regard, eco-engineering is a very promising and sustainable approach for slope stabilization. Planting trees and shrubs is a central task in eco-engineering. A developing vegetation cover will on one hand reduce the mechanical effects of rainfall by an increased interception, on the other hand, the root systems cause modifications of soil properties. Roots not only provide anchorage for the plants, they also promote soil aggregation and are able to penetrate possible shear horizons. Overall, anchorage of plants is at the same extend also stabilizing the near subsurface. When rainfall occurs, the saturated soil exerts downhill pressure to a tree or shrub. As long as the root distribution supports anchorage, the respective slope area remains stable. At this point, the tensile strength of the roots is a critical measure, because it is more likely that the supporting roots break than the entire root system being pulled out of the soil completely. As a consequence, root tensile strength is an important parameter in characterizing the soil stabilization potential of trees and shrubs. It is known that tree roots show a high variability in their anatomical structure depending on their depth below soil surface as well as their distance to the main stem. Therefore, we assume that these structural changes affect the tensile strength of every single root. In order to confirm this assumption and possibly find more important root properties which have an influence on soil stabilization, the root systems of seven trees (three grey alder, four mountain maple) were excavated and analyzed. The study site is a catchment, where shallow landslides are common. It is located in the Prättigau valley in the Eastern Swiss Alps and was eco-engineered in 1997. The substrate is coarse-grained morainic material, mean annual air temperature reaches 4.64°C, average precipitation is 1170 mm, and the altitude is about 1000 m a.s.l.. The root system of each tree was uncovered carefully by hand to keep the roots undamaged, before removal it was photographed in situ to document the root distribution. The root systems were then cut into single root pieces of about 20 cm length and the position of each sample was documented. The root samples were then hierarchically classified in several root classes. The tensile strength of more than 500 samples was determined. In addition, the values for age, diameter, and root moisture were ascertained. Since it was assumed, that the cellular structure of the roots has an influence on the tensile strength, two microscopic thin-sections were prepared from all successfully tested root samples. The microscopic analysis focused on anatomical parameters such as the size and number of vessels, their distribution as well as their conductivity. The results for the final correlation between the anatomical characteristics and the root's tensile strength are presented for both tree species.

A combined field and numerical approach to understanding dilute pyroclastic density current dynamics and hazard potential: Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brand, Brittany D.; Gravley, Darren M.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Bloomberg, Simon H.; Agustin-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly

2014-04-01

The most dangerous and deadly hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; Auckland, New Zealand) are those related to volcanic base surges - dilute, ground-hugging, particle laden currents with dynamic pressures capable of severe to complete structural damage. We use the well-exposed base surge deposits of the Maungataketake tuff ring (Manukau coast, Auckland), to reconstruct flow dynamics and destructive potential of base surges produced during the eruption. The initial base surge(s) snapped trees up to 0.5 m in diameter near their base as far as 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this distance the trees were encapsulated and buried by the surge in growth position. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) in excess of 12-35 kPa are necessary to cause the observed damage. Next we develop a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to determine the damage potential of the base surges produced during the early phases of the eruption and explore the implications of this potential on future eruptions in the region. We find that initial conditions with velocities on the order of 65 m s- 1, bulk density of 38 kg m- 3 and initial, near-vent current thicknesses of 60 m reproduce the field-based Pdyn estimates and runout distances. A sensitivity analysis revealed that lower initial bulk densities result in shorter run-out distances, more rapid deceleration of the current and lower dynamic pressures. Initial velocity does not have a strong influence on run-out distance, although higher initial velocity and slope slightly decrease runout distance due to higher rates of atmospheric entrainment. Using this model we determine that for base surges with runout distances of up to 4 km, complete destruction can be expected within 0.5 km from the vent, moderate destruction can be expected up to 2 km, but much less damage is expected up to the final runout distance of 4 km. For larger eruptions (base surge runout distance 4-6 km), Pdyn of > 35 kPa can be expected up to 2.5 km from source, ensuring complete destruction within this area. Moderate damage to reinforced structures and damage to weaker structures can be expected up to 6 km from source. In both cases hot ash may still cause damage due to igniting flammable materials in the distal-most regions of a base surge. This work illustrates our ability to combine field observations and numerical models to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact of dilute PDCs. Thus, this approach may serve as a tool to understand the damage potential and extent of previous and potential future eruptions in the AVF.

A new method of fully three dimensional analysis of stress field in the soil layer of a soil-mantled hillslope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Y. H.; Nakakita, E.

2017-12-01

Hillslope stability is highly related to stress equilibrium near the top surface of soil-mantled hillslopes. Stress field in a hillslope can also be significantly altered by variable groundwater motion under the rainfall influence as well as by different vegetation above and below the slope. The topographic irregularity, biological effects from vegetation and variable rainfall patterns couple with others to make the prediction of shallow landslide complicated and difficult. In an increasing tendency of extreme rainfall, the mountainous area in Japan has suffered more and more shallow landslides. To better assess shallow landslide hazards, we would like to develop a new mechanically-based method to estimate the fully three-dimensional stress field in hillslopes. The surface soil-layer of hillslope is modelled as a poroelastic medium, and the tree surcharge on the slope surface is considered as a boundary input of stress forcing. The modelling of groundwater motion is involved to alter effective stress state in the soil layer, and the tree root-reinforcement estimated by allometric equations is taken into account for influencing the soil strength. The Mohr-Coulomb failure theory is then used for locating possible yielding surfaces, or says for identifying failure zones. This model is implemented by using the finite element method. Finally, we performed a case study of the real event of massive shallow landslides occurred in Hiroshima in August, 2014. The result shows good agreement with the field condition.

Risk-based maintenance of ethylene oxide production facilities.

PubMed

Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

2004-05-20

This paper discusses a methodology for the design of an optimum inspection and maintenance program. The methodology, called risk-based maintenance (RBM) is based on integrating a reliability approach and a risk assessment strategy to obtain an optimum maintenance schedule. First, the likely equipment failure scenarios are formulated. Out of many likely failure scenarios, the ones, which are most probable, are subjected to a detailed study. Detailed consequence analysis is done for the selected scenarios. Subsequently, these failure scenarios are subjected to a fault tree analysis to determine their probabilities. Finally, risk is computed by combining the results of the consequence and the probability analyses. The calculated risk is compared against known acceptable criteria. The frequencies of the maintenance tasks are obtained by minimizing the estimated risk. A case study involving an ethylene oxide production facility is presented. Out of the five most hazardous units considered, the pipeline used for the transportation of the ethylene is found to have the highest risk. Using available failure data and a lognormal reliability distribution function human health risk factors are calculated. Both societal risk factors and individual risk factors exceeded the acceptable risk criteria. To determine an optimal maintenance interval, a reverse fault tree analysis was used. The maintenance interval was determined such that the original high risk is brought down to an acceptable level. A sensitivity analysis is also undertaken to study the impact of changing the distribution of the reliability model as well as the error in the distribution parameters on the maintenance interval.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Chun-Chieh; Department of Medical Imaging and Radiological Science, Chang Gung University School of Medicine, Taoyuan, Taiwan; Lai, Chyong-Huey

Purpose: To study the prognostic value of the human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes in cervical cancer patients undergoing radiotherapy. Patients and Methods: A total of 1,010 patients with cervical cancer after radiotherapy between 1993 and 2000 were eligible for this study. The HPV genotypes were determined by a genechip, which detects 38 types of HPV. The patient characteristics and treatment outcomes were analyzed using the Cox regression hazard model and classification and regression tree decision tree method. Results: A total of 25 genotypes of HPV were detected in 992 specimens (98.2%). The leading 8 types were HPV16, 58, 18, 33, 52,more » 39, 31, and 45. These types belong to two high-risk HPV species: alpha-7 (HPV18, 39, 45) and alpha-9 (HPV16, 31, 33, 52, 58). Three HPV-based risk groups, which were independent of established prognostic factors, such as International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, age, pathologic features, squamous cell carcinoma antigen, and lymph node metastasis, were associated with the survival outcomes. The high-risk group consisted of the patients without HPV infection or the ones infected with the alpha-7 species only. Patients co-infected with the alpha-7 and alpha-9 species belonged to the medium-risk group, and the others were included in the low-risk group. Conclusion: The results of the present study have confirmed the prognostic value of HPV genotypes in cervical cancer treated with radiotherapy. The different effect of the alpha-7 and alpha-9 species on the radiation response deserves additional exploration.« less

Classification Rule for 5-year Cardiovascular Diseases Risk using decision tree in Primary Care Chinese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2017-11-10

Cardiovascular disease(CVD) is the leading cause of mortality among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM), and a risk classification model for CVD among primary care diabetic patients is pivotal for risk-based interventions and patient information. This study developed a simple tool for a 5-year CVD risk prediction for primary care Chinese patients with T2DM. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 137,935 primary care Chinese T2DM patients aged 18-79 years without history of CVD between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2010. New events of CVD of the cohort over a median follow up of 5 years were extracted from the medical records. A classification rule of 5-year CVD risk was obtained from the derivation cohort and validated in the validation cohort. Significant risk factors included in decision tree were age, gender, smoking status, diagnosis duration, obesity, unsatisfactory control on haemoglobin A1c and cholesterol, albuminuria and stage of chronic kidney disease, which categorized patients into five 5-year CVD risk groups(<5%; 5-9%; 10-14%; 15-19% and ≥20%). Taking the group with the lowest CVD risk, the hazard ratios varied from 1.92(1.77,2.08) to 8.46(7.75,9.24). The present prediction model performed comparable discrimination and better calibration from the plot compared to other current existing models.

Knowledge Representation Standards and Interchange Formats for Causal Graphs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Throop, David R.; Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land

2005-01-01

In many domains, automated reasoning tools must represent graphs of causally linked events. These include fault-tree analysis, probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), planning, procedures, medical reasoning about disease progression, and functional architectures. Each of these fields has its own requirements for the representation of causation, events, actors and conditions. The representations include ontologies of function and cause, data dictionaries for causal dependency, failure and hazard, and interchange formats between some existing tools. In none of the domains has a generally accepted interchange format emerged. The paper makes progress towards interoperability across the wide range of causal analysis methodologies. We survey existing practice and emerging interchange formats in each of these fields. Setting forth a set of terms and concepts that are broadly shared across the domains, we examine the several ways in which current practice represents them. Some phenomena are difficult to represent or to analyze in several domains. These include mode transitions, reachability analysis, positive and negative feedback loops, conditions correlated but not causally linked and bimodal probability distributions. We work through examples and contrast the differing methods for addressing them. We detail recent work in knowledge interchange formats for causal trees in aerospace analysis applications in early design, safety and reliability. Several examples are discussed, with a particular focus on reachability analysis and mode transitions. We generalize the aerospace analysis work across the several other domains. We also recommend features and capabilities for the next generation of causal knowledge representation standards.

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment along Nankai Trough (1) An assessment based on the information of the forthcoming earthquake that Earthquake Research Committee(2013) evaluated

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirata, K.; Fujiwara, H.; Nakamura, H.; Osada, M.; Morikawa, N.; Kawai, S.; Ohsumi, T.; Aoi, S.; Yamamoto, N.; Matsuyama, H.; Toyama, N.; Kito, T.; Murashima, Y.; Murata, Y.; Inoue, T.; Saito, R.; Takayama, J.; Akiyama, S.; Korenaga, M.; Abe, Y.; Hashimoto, N.

2015-12-01

The Earthquake Research Committee(ERC)/HERP, Government of Japan (2013) revised their long-term evaluation of the forthcoming large earthquake along the Nankai Trough; the next earthquake is estimated M8 to 9 class, and the probability (P30) that the next earthquake will occur within the next 30 years (from Jan. 1, 2013) is 60% to 70%. In this study, we assess tsunami hazards (maximum coastal tsunami heights) in the near future, in terms of a probabilistic approach, from the next earthquake along Nankai Trough, on the basis of ERC(2013)'s report. The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment that we applied is as follows; (1) Characterized earthquake fault models (CEFMs) are constructed on each of the 15 hypothetical source areas (HSA) that ERC(2013) showed. The characterization rule follows Toyama et al.(2015, JpGU). As results, we obtained total of 1441 CEFMs. (2) We calculate tsunamis due to CEFMs by solving nonlinear, finite-amplitude, long-wave equations with advection and bottom friction terms by finite-difference method. Run-up computation on land is included. (3) A time predictable model predicts the recurrent interval of the present seismic cycle is T=88.2 years (ERC,2013). We fix P30 = 67% by applying the renewal process based on BPT distribution with T and alpha=0.24 as its aperiodicity. (4) We divide the probability P30 into P30(i) for i-th subgroup consisting of the earthquakes occurring in each of 15 HSA by following a probability re-distribution concept (ERC,2014). Then each earthquake (CEFM) in i-th subgroup is assigned a probability P30(i)/N where N is the number of CEFMs in each sub-group. Note that such re-distribution concept of the probability is nothing but tentative because the present seismology cannot give deep knowledge enough to do it. Epistemic logic-tree approach may be required in future. (5) We synthesize a number of tsunami hazard curves at every evaluation points on coasts by integrating the information about 30 years occurrence probabilities P30(i) for all earthquakes (CEFMs) and calculated maximum coastal tsunami heights. In the synthesis, aleatory uncertainties relating to incompleteness of governing equations, CEFM modeling, bathymetry and topography data, etc, are modeled assuming a log-normal probabilistic distribution. Examples of tsunami hazard curves will be presented.

Using Multi-Scenario Tsunami Modelling Results combined with Probabilistic Analyses to provide Hazard Information for the South-WestCoast of Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zosseder, K.; Post, J.; Steinmetz, T.; Wegscheider, S.; Strunz, G.

2009-04-01

Indonesia is located at one of the most active geological subduction zones in the world. Following the most recent seaquakes and their subsequent tsunamis in December 2004 and July 2006 it is expected that also in the near future tsunamis are likely to occur due to increased tectonic tensions leading to abrupt vertical seafloor alterations after a century of relative tectonic silence. To face this devastating threat tsunami hazard maps are very important as base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. In terms of a tsunami impact the hazard assessment is mostly covered by numerical modelling because the model results normally offer the most precise database for a hazard analysis as they include spatially distributed data and their influence to the hydraulic dynamics. Generally a model result gives a probability for the intensity distribution of a tsunami at the coast (or run up) and the spatial distribution of the maximum inundation area depending on the location and magnitude of the tsunami source used. The boundary condition of the source used for the model is mostly chosen by a worst case approach. Hence the location and magnitude which are likely to occur and which are assumed to generate the worst impact are used to predict the impact at a specific area. But for a tsunami hazard assessment covering a large coastal area, as it is demanded in the GITEWS (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project in which the present work is embedded, this approach is not practicable because a lot of tsunami sources can cause an impact at the coast and must be considered. Thus a multi-scenario tsunami model approach is developed to provide a reliable hazard assessment covering large areas. For the Indonesian Early Warning System many tsunami scenarios were modelled by the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) at different probable tsunami sources and with different magnitudes along the Sunda Trench. Every modelled scenario delivers the spatial distribution of the inundation for a specific area, the wave height at coast at this area and the estimated times of arrival (ETAs) of the waves, caused by one tsunamigenic source with a specific magnitude. These parameters from the several scenarios can overlap each other along the coast and must be combined to get one comprehensive hazard assessment for all possible future tsunamis at the region under observation. The simplest way to derive the inundation probability along the coast using the multiscenario approach is to overlay all scenario inundation results and to determine how often a point on land will be significantly inundated from the various scenarios. But this does not take into account that the used tsunamigenic sources for the modeled scenarios have different likelihoods of causing a tsunami. Hence a statistical analysis of historical data and geophysical investigation results based on numerical modelling results is added to the hazard assessment, which clearly improves the significance of the hazard assessment. For this purpose the present method is developed and contains a complex logical combination of the diverse probabilities assessed like probability of occurrence for different earthquake magnitudes at different localities, probability of occurrence for a specific wave height at the coast and the probability for every point on land likely to get hit by a tsunami. The values are combined by a logical tree technique and quantified by statistical analysis of historical data and of the tsunami modelling results as mentioned before. This results in a tsunami inundation probability map covering the South West Coast of Indonesia which nevertheless shows a significant spatial diversity offering a good base for evacuation planning and mitigation strategies. Keywords: tsunami hazard assessment, tsunami modelling, probabilistic analysis, early warning

Preliminary Earthquake Hazard Map of Afghanistan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Rukstales, Kenneth S.

2007-01-01

Introduction Earthquakes represent a serious threat to the people and institutions of Afghanistan. As part of a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) effort to assess the resource potential and seismic hazards of Afghanistan, the Seismic Hazard Mapping group of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) has prepared a series of probabilistic seismic hazard maps that help quantify the expected frequency and strength of ground shaking nationwide. To construct the maps, we do a complete hazard analysis for each of ~35,000 sites in the study area. We use a probabilistic methodology that accounts for all potential seismic sources and their rates of earthquake activity, and we incorporate modeling uncertainty by using logic trees for source and ground-motion parameters. See the Appendix for an explanation of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and discussion of seismic risk. Afghanistan occupies a southward-projecting, relatively stable promontory of the Eurasian tectonic plate (Ambraseys and Bilham, 2003; Wheeler and others, 2005). Active plate boundaries, however, surround Afghanistan on the west, south, and east. To the west, the Arabian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at about 3 cm/yr. The active plate boundary trends northwestward through the Zagros region of southwestern Iran. Deformation is accommodated throughout the territory of Iran; major structures include several north-south-trending, right-lateral strike-slip fault systems in the east and, farther to the north, a series of east-west-trending reverse- and strike-slip faults. This deformation apparently does not cross the border into relatively stable western Afghanistan. In the east, the Indian plate moves northward relative to Eurasia at a rate of about 4 cm/yr. A broad, transpressional plate-boundary zone extends into eastern Afghanistan, trending southwestward from the Hindu Kush in northeast Afghanistan, through Kabul, and along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Deformation here is expressed as a belt of major, north-northeast-trending, left-lateral strike-slip faults and abundant seismicity. The seismicity intensifies farther to the northeast and includes a prominent zone of deep earthquakes associated with northward subduction of the Indian plate beneath Eurasia that extends beneath the Hindu Kush and Pamirs Mountains. Production of the seismic hazard maps is challenging because the geological and seismological data required to produce a seismic hazard model are limited. The data that are available for this project include historical seismicity and poorly constrained slip rates on only a few of the many active faults in the country. Much of the hazard is derived from a new catalog of historical earthquakes: from 1964 to the present, with magnitude equal to or greater than about 4.5, and with depth between 0 and 250 kilometers. We also include four specific faults in the model: the Chaman fault with an assigned slip rate of 10 mm/yr, the Central Badakhshan fault with an assigned slip rate of 12 mm/yr, the Darvaz fault with an assigned slip rate of 7 mm/yr, and the Hari Rud fault with an assigned slip rate of 2 mm/yr. For these faults and for shallow seismicity less than 50 km deep, we incorporate published ground-motion estimates from tectonically active regions of western North America, Europe, and the Middle East. Ground-motion estimates for deeper seismicity are derived from data in subduction environments. We apply estimates derived for tectonic regions where subduction is the main tectonic process for intermediate-depth seismicity between 50- and 250-km depth. Within the framework of these limitations, we have developed a preliminary probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment of Afghanistan, the type of analysis that underpins the seismic components of modern building codes in the United States. The assessment includes maps of estimated peak ground-acceleration (PGA), 0.2-second spectral acceleration (SA), and 1.0-secon

Spatial prediction and validation of zoonotic hazard through micro-habitat properties: where does Puumala hantavirus hole - up?

PubMed

Khalil, Hussein; Olsson, Gert; Magnusson, Magnus; Evander, Magnus; Hörnfeldt, Birger; Ecke, Frauke

2017-07-26

To predict the risk of infectious diseases originating in wildlife, it is important to identify habitats that allow the co-occurrence of pathogens and their hosts. Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) is a directly-transmitted RNA virus that causes hemorrhagic fever in humans, and is carried and transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). In northern Sweden, bank voles undergo 3-4 year population cycles, during which their spatial distribution varies greatly. We used boosted regression trees; a technique inspired by machine learning, on a 10 - year time-series (fall 2003-2013) to develop a spatial predictive model assessing seasonal PUUV hazard using micro-habitat variables in a landscape heavily modified by forestry. We validated the models in an independent study area approx. 200 km away by predicting seasonal presence of infected bank voles in a five-year-period (2007-2010 and 2015). The distribution of PUUV-infected voles varied seasonally and inter-annually. In spring, micro-habitat variables related to cover and food availability in forests predicted both bank vole and infected bank vole presence. In fall, the presence of PUUV-infected voles was generally restricted to spruce forests where cover was abundant, despite the broad landscape distribution of bank voles in general. We hypothesize that the discrepancy in distribution between infected and uninfected hosts in fall, was related to higher survival of PUUV and/or PUUV-infected voles in the environment, especially where cover is plentiful. Moist and mesic old spruce forests, with abundant cover such as large holes and bilberry shrubs, also providing food, were most likely to harbor infected bank voles. The models developed using long-term and spatially extensive data can be extrapolated to other areas in northern Fennoscandia. To predict the hazard of directly transmitted zoonoses in areas with unknown risk status, models based on micro-habitat variables and developed through machine learning techniques in well-studied systems, could be used.

Analysis of mean seismic ground motion and its uncertainty based on the UCERF3 geologic slip rate model with uncertainty for California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeng, Yuehua

2018-01-01

The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast v.3 (UCERF3) model (Field et al., 2014) considers epistemic uncertainty in fault‐slip rate via the inclusion of multiple rate models based on geologic and/or geodetic data. However, these slip rates are commonly clustered about their mean value and do not reflect the broader distribution of possible rates and associated probabilities. Here, we consider both a double‐truncated 2σ Gaussian and a boxcar distribution of slip rates and use a Monte Carlo simulation to sample the entire range of the distribution for California fault‐slip rates. We compute the seismic hazard following the methodology and logic‐tree branch weights applied to the 2014 national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for the western U.S. region (Petersen et al., 2014, 2015). By applying a new approach developed in this study to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using precomputed rates of exceedance from each fault as a Green’s function, we reduce the computer time by about 10^5‐fold and apply it to the mean PSHA estimates with 1000 Monte Carlo samples of fault‐slip rates to compare with results calculated using only the mean or preferred slip rates. The difference in the mean probabilistic peak ground motion corresponding to a 2% in 50‐yr probability of exceedance is less than 1% on average over all of California for both the Gaussian and boxcar probability distributions for slip‐rate uncertainty but reaches about 18% in areas near faults compared with that calculated using the mean or preferred slip rates. The average uncertainties in 1σ peak ground‐motion level are 5.5% and 7.3% of the mean with the relative maximum uncertainties of 53% and 63% for the Gaussian and boxcar probability density function (PDF), respectively.

A retrospective analysis of the flash flood in Braunsbach on May 29th, 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laudan, Jonas; Öztürk, Ugur; Sieg, Tobias; Wendi, Dadiyorto; Riemer, Adrian; Agarwal, Ankit; Rözer, Viktor; Korup, Oliver; Thieken, Annegret; Vogel, Kristin

2017-04-01

At the end of May and early June 2016 several rainstorms caused severe surface water flooding and flash floods, partly accompanied by mud and debris flows, in Central Europe, and especially in southern Germany. On the evening of May 29, 2016, a flood outburst with massive amounts of rubble and muddy sediments hit the town of Braunsbach, Baden-Württemberg, damaging numerous buildings, cars, and town facilities. The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach "flash flood" as an exemplary catastrophic event triggered by severe weather. Bringing together scientists from the fields of meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology, flood risk, natural hazards, and mathematics the research team was especially interested in the interplay of causes and triggers leading to the event. Accordingly, the team focused on the entire process chain from heavy precipitation to runoff and flood generation and the geomorphic aftermath. The steep slopes in the catchment area promote the episodic supply of gravel, debris and organic material, which remains stored for decades to millennia, only to be remobilized during rare and extreme runoff events such as in 2016. Field mapping revealed at least 48 landslides as sources of high sediment loads. Nonetheless, numerous scars of river erosion along the tributary creeks into Braunsbach indicate that most of the material carried by the flash flood was due to bank undercutting. The flow also entrained more rubble, trees, cars, and other anthropogenic sediments further downstream. This enhanced solids load increased the physical impact, and hence damage, to buildings. Local effects of flow depth, flow velocity, and exposition of buildings into the advancing non-steady and non-uniform flow caused the damage to exceed that of a clearwater flood with comparable return period. We conclude that, to meaningfully inform the implementation of precautionary measures, a quantitative hazard assessment of similarly extreme flash floods may include more explicitly the effects of high sediment loads and flow-roughness elements.

Cellular automata-based forecasting of the impact of accidental fire and toxic dispersion in process industries.

PubMed

Sarkar, Chinmoy; Abbasi, S A

2006-09-01

The strategies to prevent accidents from occurring in a process industry, or to minimize the harm if an accident does take place, always revolve around forecasting the likely accidents and their impacts. Based on the likely frequency and severity of the accidents, resources are committed towards preventing the accidents. Nearly all techniques of ranking hazardous units, be it the hazard and operability studies, fault tree analysis, hazard indice, etc.--qualitative as well as quantitative--depend essentially on the assessment of the likely frequency and the likely harm accidents in different units may cause. This fact makes it exceedingly important that the forecasting the accidents and their likely impact is done as accurately as possible. In the present study we introduce a new approach to accident forecasting based on the discrete modeling paradigm of cellular automata. In this treatment an accident is modeled as a self-evolving phenomena, the impact of which is strongly influenced by the size, nature, and position of the environmental components which lie in the vicinity of the accident site. The outward propagation of the mass, energy and momentum from the accident epicenter is modeled as a fast diffusion process occurring in discrete space-time coordinates. The quantum of energy and material that would flow into each discrete space element (cell) due to the accidental release is evaluated and the degree of vulnerability posed to the receptors if present in the cell is measured at the end of each time element. This approach is able to effectively take into account the modifications in the flux of energy and material which occur as a result of the heterogeneous environment prevailing between the accident epicenter and the receptor. Consequently, more realistic accident scenarios are generated than possible with the prevailing techniques. The efficacy of the approach has been illustrated with case studies.

Time dependent data, time independent models: challenges of updating Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, J.; Clark, D.; Allen, T.; Ghasemi, H.; Leonard, M.

2017-12-01

Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) simulates earthquake occurrence as a time-independent process. However paleoseismic studies in slowly deforming regions such as Australia show compelling evidence that large earthquakes on individual faults cluster within active periods, followed by long periods of quiescence. Therefore the instrumental earthquake catalog, which forms the basis of PSHA earthquake recurrence calculations, may only capture the state of the system over the period of the catalog. Together this means that data informing our PSHA may not be truly time-independent. This poses challenges in developing PSHAs for typical design probabilities (such as 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance): Is the present state observed through the instrumental catalog useful for estimating the next 50 years of earthquake hazard? Can paleo-earthquake data, that shows variations in earthquake frequency over time-scales of 10,000s of years or more, be robustly included in such PSHA models? Can a single PSHA logic tree be useful over a range of different probabilities of exceedance? In developing an updated PSHA for Australia, decadal-scale data based on instrumental earthquake catalogs (i.e. alternative area based source models and smoothed seismicity models) is integrated with paleo-earthquake data through inclusion of a fault source model. Use of time-dependent non-homogeneous Poisson models allows earthquake clustering to be modeled on fault sources with sufficient paleo-earthquake data. This study assesses the performance of alternative models by extracting decade-long segments of the instrumental catalog, developing earthquake probability models based on the remaining catalog, and testing performance against the extracted component of the catalog. Although this provides insights into model performance over the short-term, for longer timescales it is recognised that model choice is subject to considerable epistemic uncertainty. Therefore a formal expert elicitation process has been used to assign weights to alternative models for the 2018 update to Australia's national PSHA.

[Effects of crop tree release on stand growth and stand structure of Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation].

PubMed

Wu, Jian-qiang; Wang, Yi-xiang; Yang, Yi; Zhu, Ting-ting; Zhu, Xu-dan

2015-02-01

Crop trees were selected in a 26-year-old even-aged Cunninghamia lanceolata plantation in Lin' an, and compared in plots that were released and unreleased to examine growth and structure responses for 3 years after thinning. Crop tree release significantly increased the mean increments of diameter and volume of individual tree by 1.30 and 1.25 times relative to trees in control stands, respectively. The increments of diameter and volume of crop trees were significantly higher than those of general trees in thinning plots, crop trees and general trees in control plots, which suggested that the responses from different tree types to crop tree release treatment were different. Crop tree release increased the average distances of crop trees to the nearest neighboring trees, reducing competition among crop trees by about 68.2%. 3-year stand volume increment for thinning stands had no significant difference with that of control stands although the number of trees was only 81.5% of the control. Crop trees in thinned plots with diameters over than 14 cm reached 18.0% over 3 years, compared with 12.0% for trees without thinning, suggesting that crop tree release benefited the larger individual trees. The pattern of tree locations in thinning plots tended to be random, complying with the rule that tree distribution pattern changes with growth. Crop tree release in C. lanceolata plantation not only promoted the stand growth, but also optimized the stand structure, benefiting crop trees sustained rapid growth and larger diameter trees production.

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brancato, Alfonso; Tusa, Giuseppina; Coltelli, Mauro; Proietti, Cristina

2014-05-01

Mount Etna is a composite stratovolcano located along the Ionian coast of eastern Sicily. The frequent flank eruptions occurrence (at an interval of years, mostly concentrated along the NE, S and W rift zones) lead to a high volcanic hazard that, linked with intense urbanization, poses a high volcanic risk. A long-term volcanic hazard assessment, mainly based on the past behaviour of the Etna volcano, is the basic tool for the evaluation of this risk. Then, a reliable forecast where the next eruption will occur is needed. A computer-assisted analysis and probabilistic evaluations will provide the relative map, thus allowing identification of the areas prone to the highest hazard. Based on these grounds, the use of a code such BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) showed that a suitable analysis can be explored (Selva et al., 2012). Following an analysis we are performing, a total of 6886 point-vents referring to the last 4.0 ka of Etna flank activity, and spread over an area of 744 km2 (divided into N=2976 squared cell, with side of 500 m), allowed us to estimate a pdf by applying a Gaussian kernel. The probability values represent a complete set of outcomes mutually exclusive and the relative sum is normalized to one over the investigated area; then, the basic assumptions of a Dirichlet distribution (the prior distribution set in the BET_EF code (Marzocchi et al., 2004, 2008)) still hold. One fundamental parameter is the the equivalent number of data, that depicts our confidence on the best guess probability. The BET_EF code also works with a likelihood function. This is modelled by a Multinomial distribution, with parameters representing the number of vents in each cell and the total number of past data (i.e. the 6886 point-vents). Given the grid of N cells, the final posterior distribution will be evaluated by multiplying the a priori Dirichlet probability distribution with the past data in each cell through the likelihood. The probability hazard map shows a tendency to concentrate along the NE and S rifts, as well as Valle del Bove, increasing the difference in probability between these areas and the rest of the volcano edifice. It is worthy notice that a higher significance is still evident along the W rift, even if not comparable with the ones of the above mentioned areas. References Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C. and Boschi E.; 2004: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB00315U. Marzocchi W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J.; 2008: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623 - 632, doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y. Selva J., Orsi G., Di Vito M.A., Marzocchi W. And Sandri L.; 2012: Probability hazard mapfor future vent opening atthe Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 497 - 510, doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.

Seismic risk assessment of Navarre (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; Rivas-Medina, A.; García Rodríguez, M. J.; Benito, B.; Tsige, M.; Martínez-Díaz, J. J.; Murphy, P.

2009-04-01

The RISNA project, financed by the Emergency Agency of Navarre (Northern Spain), aims at assessing the seismic risk of the entire region. The final goal of the project is the definition of emergency plans for future earthquakes. With this purpose, four main topics are covered: seismic hazard characterization, geotechnical classification, vulnerability assessment and damage estimation to structures and exposed population. A geographic information system is used to integrate, analyze and represent all information colleted in the different phases of the study. Expected ground motions on rock conditions with a 90% probability of non-exceedance in an exposure time of 50 years are determined following a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology that includes a logic tree with different ground motion and source zoning models. As the region under study is located in the boundary between Spain and France, an effort is required to collect and homogenise seismological data from different national and regional agencies. A new homogenised seismic catalogue, merging data from Spanish, French, Catalonian and international agencies and establishing correlations between different magnitude scales, is developed. In addition, a new seismic zoning model focused on the study area is proposed. Results show that the highest ground motions on rock conditions are expected in the northeastern part of the region, decreasing southwards. Seismic hazard can be expressed as low-to-moderate. A geotechnical classification of the entire region is developed based on surface geology, available borehole data and morphotectonic constraints. Frequency-dependent amplification factors, consistent with code values, are proposed. The northern and southern parts of the region are characterized by stiff and soft soils respectively, being the softest soils located along river valleys. Seismic hazard maps including soil effects are obtained by applying these factors to the seismic hazard maps on rock conditions (for the same probability level). Again, the highest hazard is found in the northeastern part of the region. The lowest hazard is obtained along major river valleys The vulnerability assessment of the Navarra building stock is accomplished using as proxy a combination of building age, location, number of floors and the implantation of building codes. Field surveys help constraining the extent of traditional and technological construction types. The vulnerability characterization is carried out following three methods: European Macroseismic Scale (EMS 98), RISK UE vulnerability index and the capacity spectrum method implemented in Hazus. Vulnerability distribution maps for each Navarrean municipality are provided, adapted to the EMS98 vulnerability classes. The vulnerability of Navarre is medium to high, except for recent urban, highly populated developments. For each vulnerability class and expected ground motion, damage distribution is estimated by means of damage probability matrixes. Several damage indexes, embracing relative and absolute damage estimates, are used. Expected average damage is low. Whereas the largest amounts of damaged structures are found in big cities, the highest percentages are obtained in some muniucipalities of northeastern Navarre. Additionally, expected percentages and amounts of affected persons by earthquake damage are calculated for each municipality. Expected amounts of affected people are low, reflecting the low expected damage degree.

Analysis of High Resolution Satellite imagery to acsees Glacier Mass Balance and Lake Hazards in Sikkim Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhushan, S.; Shean, D. E.; Haritashya, U. K.; Arendt, A. A.; Syed, T. H.; Setiawan, L.

2017-12-01

Glacial lake outburst floods can impact downstream communities due to the sudden outflux of huge quantities of stored water. In this study, we develop a hazard assessment of the moraine dammed glacial lakes in Sikkim Himalayas by analyzing the morphometry of proglacial features, and the surface velocity and mass balance of glaciers. We generated high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) using the open-source NASA Ames Stereo Pipeline (ASP) and use other open-source tools to calculate surface velocity and patterns of glacier downwasting over time. Geodetic glacier mass balance is obtained for three periods using high-resolution WorldView/GeoEye stereo DEMs (8 m posting, 2014-2016), Cartosat-1 stereo DEMs (10 m, 2006-2008) and SRTM (30 m, 2000). Initial results reveal a region-wide mass balance of -0.31±0.13 m w.eq.a-1 for the 2007-2015 period, with some debris covered glaciers showing a very low mass loss rate. Additionally, 12 annual glacier velocity fields spanning from 1991 to 2017.derived from Landsat imagery are used to explore the relationship between glacier dynamics and changes in proglacial lakes. Multi-temporal glacial lake mapping is conducted using Landsat and Cartosat imagery. Avalanche and rockfall modeling are combined with morphometric analysis of the proglacial lake area to assess the likelihood of glacial lake dam failure. The above parameters are integrated into a decision tree approach enabling categorization of moraine-dammed lakes according to their potential for outburst events.

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

2002-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Does Gene Tree Discordance Explain the Mismatch between Macroevolutionary Models and Empirical Patterns of Tree Shape and Branching Times?

PubMed Central

Stadler, Tanja; Degnan, James H.; Rosenberg, Noah A.

2016-01-01

Classic null models for speciation and extinction give rise to phylogenies that differ in distribution from empirical phylogenies. In particular, empirical phylogenies are less balanced and have branching times closer to the root compared to phylogenies predicted by common null models. This difference might be due to null models of the speciation and extinction process being too simplistic, or due to the empirical datasets not being representative of random phylogenies. A third possibility arises because phylogenetic reconstruction methods often infer gene trees rather than species trees, producing an incongruity between models that predict species tree patterns and empirical analyses that consider gene trees. We investigate the extent to which the difference between gene trees and species trees under a combined birth–death and multispecies coalescent model can explain the difference in empirical trees and birth–death species trees. We simulate gene trees embedded in simulated species trees and investigate their difference with respect to tree balance and branching times. We observe that the gene trees are less balanced and typically have branching times closer to the root than the species trees. Empirical trees from TreeBase are also less balanced than our simulated species trees, and model gene trees can explain an imbalance increase of up to 8% compared to species trees. However, we see a much larger imbalance increase in empirical trees, about 100%, meaning that additional features must also be causing imbalance in empirical trees. This simulation study highlights the necessity of revisiting the assumptions made in phylogenetic analyses, as these assumptions, such as equating the gene tree with the species tree, might lead to a biased conclusion. PMID:26968785

Tree Nut Allergies

MedlinePlus

... Blog Vision Awards Common Allergens Tree Nut Allergy Tree Nut Allergy Learn about tree nut allergy, how ... a Tree Nut Label card . Allergic Reactions to Tree Nuts Tree nuts can cause a severe and ...

7 CFR 1416.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... agricultural products. Owner means one who had legal ownership of the trees, bushes, vines, or livestock for... hurricanes. Tree means a tree (including a Christmas tree, ornamental tree, nursery tree, and potted tree...

TreePOD: Sensitivity-Aware Selection of Pareto-Optimal Decision Trees.

PubMed

Muhlbacher, Thomas; Linhardt, Lorenz; Moller, Torsten; Piringer, Harald

2018-01-01

Balancing accuracy gains with other objectives such as interpretability is a key challenge when building decision trees. However, this process is difficult to automate because it involves know-how about the domain as well as the purpose of the model. This paper presents TreePOD, a new approach for sensitivity-aware model selection along trade-offs. TreePOD is based on exploring a large set of candidate trees generated by sampling the parameters of tree construction algorithms. Based on this set, visualizations of quantitative and qualitative tree aspects provide a comprehensive overview of possible tree characteristics. Along trade-offs between two objectives, TreePOD provides efficient selection guidance by focusing on Pareto-optimal tree candidates. TreePOD also conveys the sensitivities of tree characteristics on variations of selected parameters by extending the tree generation process with a full-factorial sampling. We demonstrate how TreePOD supports a variety of tasks involved in decision tree selection and describe its integration in a holistic workflow for building and selecting decision trees. For evaluation, we illustrate a case study for predicting critical power grid states, and we report qualitative feedback from domain experts in the energy sector. This feedback suggests that TreePOD enables users with and without statistical background a confident and efficient identification of suitable decision trees.

Experimental modelling of outburst flood - bed interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrivick, J. L.; Xie, Z.; Sleigh, A.; Hubbard, M.

2009-04-01

Outburst floods are a sudden release and advancing wave of water and sediment, with a peak discharge that is often several orders of magnitude greater than perennial flows. Common outburst floods from natural sources include those from glacial and moraine-impounded lakes, freshwater dyke and levee bursts, volcanic debris dams, landslides, avalanches, coastal bay-bars, and those from tree or vegetation dams. Outburst flood hazards are regularly incorporated into risk assessments for urban, coastal and mountainous areas, for example. Outburst flood hazards are primarily due to direct impacts, caused by a frontal surge wave, from debris within a flow body, and from the mass and consistency of the flows. A number of secondary impacts also pose hazards, including widespread deposition of sediment and blocked tributary streams. It is rapid landscape change, which is achieved the mobilization and redistribution of sediment that causes one of the greatest hazards due to outburst floods. The aim of this project is therefore to parameterise hydrodynamic - sedimentary interactions in experimental outburst floods. Specifically, this project applies laboratory flume modelling, which offers a hitherto untapped opportunity for examining complex interactions between water and sediment within outburst floods. The experimental set-up is of a tradition lock-gate design with a straight 4 m long tank. Hydraulics are scaled at 1:20 froude scale and the following controls on frontal wave flow-bed interactions and hence on rapid landscape change are being investigated: 1. Pre-existing mobile sediment effects, fixed bed roughness effects, sediment concentration effects, mobile bed effects. An emphasis is being maintained on examining the downstream temporal and spatial change in physical character of the water / sediment frontal wave. Facilities are state-of-the-art with a fully-automated laser bed-profiler to measure bed elevation after a run, Seatek arrays to measure transient flow depths, 0.5 Hz Ultrasonic Velocimeter Profiling to measure within-flow velocities, and Ultrasonic High-Concentration Meter (UHCM) to measure sediment concentrations, for example, all at increments of space and time. These instruments can only be used without a mobile sediment bed and some could be rendered as a source of error because they are intrusive to the flow. Digital video and automated still photography is therefore also important for recording hydraulic and bedform changes through time in flows with freely-moving sediment. This paper will report initial results.

MASTtreedist: visualization of tree space based on maximum agreement subtree.

PubMed

Huang, Hong; Li, Yongji

2013-01-01

Phylogenetic tree construction process might produce many candidate trees as the "best estimates." As the number of constructed phylogenetic trees grows, the need to efficiently compare their topological or physical structures arises. One of the tree comparison's software tools, the Mesquite's Tree Set Viz module, allows the rapid and efficient visualization of the tree comparison distances using multidimensional scaling (MDS). Tree-distance measures, such as Robinson-Foulds (RF), for the topological distance among different trees have been implemented in Tree Set Viz. New and sophisticated measures such as Maximum Agreement Subtree (MAST) can be continuously built upon Tree Set Viz. MAST can detect the common substructures among trees and provide more precise information on the similarity of the trees, but it is NP-hard and difficult to implement. In this article, we present a practical tree-distance metric: MASTtreedist, a MAST-based comparison metric in Mesquite's Tree Set Viz module. In this metric, the efficient optimizations for the maximum weight clique problem are applied. The results suggest that the proposed method can efficiently compute the MAST distances among trees, and such tree topological differences can be translated as a scatter of points in two-dimensional (2D) space. We also provide statistical evaluation of provided measures with respect to RF-using experimental data sets. This new comparison module provides a new tree-tree pairwise comparison metric based on the differences of the number of MAST leaves among constructed phylogenetic trees. Such a new phylogenetic tree comparison metric improves the visualization of taxa differences by discriminating small divergences of subtree structures for phylogenetic tree reconstruction.

Characterizing the phylogenetic tree-search problem.

PubMed

Money, Daniel; Whelan, Simon

2012-03-01

Phylogenetic trees are important in many areas of biological research, ranging from systematic studies to the methods used for genome annotation. Finding the best scoring tree under any optimality criterion is an NP-hard problem, which necessitates the use of heuristics for tree-search. Although tree-search plays a major role in obtaining a tree estimate, there remains a limited understanding of its characteristics and how the elements of the statistical inferential procedure interact with the algorithms used. This study begins to answer some of these questions through a detailed examination of maximum likelihood tree-search on a wide range of real genome-scale data sets. We examine all 10,395 trees for each of the 106 genes of an eight-taxa yeast phylogenomic data set, then apply different tree-search algorithms to investigate their performance. We extend our findings by examining two larger genome-scale data sets and a large disparate data set that has been previously used to benchmark the performance of tree-search programs. We identify several broad trends occurring during tree-search that provide an insight into the performance of heuristics and may, in the future, aid their development. These trends include a tendency for the true maximum likelihood (best) tree to also be the shortest tree in terms of branch lengths, a weak tendency for tree-search to recover the best tree, and a tendency for tree-search to encounter fewer local optima in genes that have a high information content. When examining current heuristics for tree-search, we find that nearest-neighbor-interchange performs poorly, and frequently finds trees that are significantly different from the best tree. In contrast, subtree-pruning-and-regrafting tends to perform well, nearly always finding trees that are not significantly different to the best tree. Finally, we demonstrate that the precise implementation of a tree-search strategy, including when and where parameters are optimized, can change the character of tree-search, and that good strategies for tree-search may combine existing tree-search programs.

An efficient and extensible approach for compressing phylogenetic trees

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Biologists require new algorithms to efficiently compress and store their large collections of phylogenetic trees. Our previous work showed that TreeZip is a promising approach for compressing phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we extend our TreeZip algorithm by handling trees with weighted branches. Furthermore, by using the compressed TreeZip file as input, we have designed an extensible decompressor that can extract subcollections of trees, compute majority and strict consensus trees, and merge tree collections using set operations such as union, intersection, and set difference. Results On unweighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress Newick files in excess of 98%. On weighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress a Newick file by at least 73%. TreeZip can be combined with 7zip with little overhead, allowing space savings in excess of 99% (unweighted) and 92%(weighted). Unlike TreeZip, 7zip is not immune to branch rotations, and performs worse as the level of variability in the Newick string representation increases. Finally, since the TreeZip compressed text (TRZ) file contains all the semantic information in a collection of trees, we can easily filter and decompress a subset of trees of interest (such as the set of unique trees), or build the resulting consensus tree in a matter of seconds. We also show the ease of which set operations can be performed on TRZ files, at speeds quicker than those performed on Newick or 7zip compressed Newick files, and without loss of space savings. Conclusions TreeZip is an efficient approach for compressing large collections of phylogenetic trees. The semantic and compact nature of the TRZ file allow it to be operated upon directly and quickly, without a need to decompress the original Newick file. We believe that TreeZip will be vital for compressing and archiving trees in the biological community. PMID:22165819

An efficient and extensible approach for compressing phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Matthews, Suzanne J; Williams, Tiffani L

2011-10-18

Biologists require new algorithms to efficiently compress and store their large collections of phylogenetic trees. Our previous work showed that TreeZip is a promising approach for compressing phylogenetic trees. In this paper, we extend our TreeZip algorithm by handling trees with weighted branches. Furthermore, by using the compressed TreeZip file as input, we have designed an extensible decompressor that can extract subcollections of trees, compute majority and strict consensus trees, and merge tree collections using set operations such as union, intersection, and set difference. On unweighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress Newick files in excess of 98%. On weighted phylogenetic trees, TreeZip is able to compress a Newick file by at least 73%. TreeZip can be combined with 7zip with little overhead, allowing space savings in excess of 99% (unweighted) and 92%(weighted). Unlike TreeZip, 7zip is not immune to branch rotations, and performs worse as the level of variability in the Newick string representation increases. Finally, since the TreeZip compressed text (TRZ) file contains all the semantic information in a collection of trees, we can easily filter and decompress a subset of trees of interest (such as the set of unique trees), or build the resulting consensus tree in a matter of seconds. We also show the ease of which set operations can be performed on TRZ files, at speeds quicker than those performed on Newick or 7zip compressed Newick files, and without loss of space savings. TreeZip is an efficient approach for compressing large collections of phylogenetic trees. The semantic and compact nature of the TRZ file allow it to be operated upon directly and quickly, without a need to decompress the original Newick file. We believe that TreeZip will be vital for compressing and archiving trees in the biological community.

Inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees using the Robinson-Foulds distance

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Constructing species trees from multi-copy gene trees remains a challenging problem in phylogenetics. One difficulty is that the underlying genes can be incongruent due to evolutionary processes such as gene duplication and loss, deep coalescence, or lateral gene transfer. Gene tree estimation errors may further exacerbate the difficulties of species tree estimation. Results We present a new approach for inferring species trees from incongruent multi-copy gene trees that is based on a generalization of the Robinson-Foulds (RF) distance measure to multi-labeled trees (mul-trees). We prove that it is NP-hard to compute the RF distance between two mul-trees; however, it is easy to calculate this distance between a mul-tree and a singly-labeled species tree. Motivated by this, we formulate the RF problem for mul-trees (MulRF) as follows: Given a collection of multi-copy gene trees, find a singly-labeled species tree that minimizes the total RF distance from the input mul-trees. We develop and implement a fast SPR-based heuristic algorithm for the NP-hard MulRF problem. We compare the performance of the MulRF method (available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/MulRF/) with several gene tree parsimony approaches using gene tree simulations that incorporate gene tree error, gene duplications and losses, and/or lateral transfer. The MulRF method produces more accurate species trees than gene tree parsimony approaches. We also demonstrate that the MulRF method infers in minutes a credible plant species tree from a collection of nearly 2,000 gene trees. Conclusions Our new phylogenetic inference method, based on a generalized RF distance, makes it possible to quickly estimate species trees from large genomic data sets. Since the MulRF method, unlike gene tree parsimony, is based on a generic tree distance measure, it is appealing for analyses of genomic data sets, in which many processes such as deep coalescence, recombination, gene duplication and losses as well as phylogenetic error may contribute to gene tree discord. In experiments, the MulRF method estimated species trees accurately and quickly, demonstrating MulRF as an efficient alternative approach for phylogenetic inference from large-scale genomic data sets. PMID:24180377

Thresholds of Disturbance: Land Management Effects on Vegetation and Nitrogen Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-31

Legume 3 18 0.0435 Rhus aromatica Shrub 2 35 0.0002 Aesculus pavia Tree 0 10 0.0198 Celtis sp. Tree 1 30 0.0002 Crataegus sp. Tree 13 62 0.0001...Shrub 37 63 0.0001 Aesculus pavia Tree 0 12 0.0043 Cercis canadensis Tree 0 13 0.0021 Crataegus sp. Tree 22 49 0.0222 Fraxinus americana Tree 0 11... Aesculus pavia Tree 0 15 0.0126 Ilex opaca Tree 0 27 0.0003 Liquidambar styraciflua Tree 18 75 0.0001 Quercus falcata Tree 9 79 0.0001 Quercus

DupTree: a program for large-scale phylogenetic analyses using gene tree parsimony.

PubMed

Wehe, André; Bansal, Mukul S; Burleigh, J Gordon; Eulenstein, Oliver

2008-07-01

DupTree is a new software program for inferring rooted species trees from collections of gene trees using the gene tree parsimony approach. The program implements a novel algorithm that significantly improves upon the run time of standard search heuristics for gene tree parsimony, and enables the first truly genome-scale phylogenetic analyses. In addition, DupTree allows users to examine alternate rootings and to weight the reconciliation costs for gene trees. DupTree is an open source project written in C++. DupTree for Mac OS X, Windows, and Linux along with a sample dataset and an on-line manual are available at http://genome.cs.iastate.edu/CBL/DupTree

Encoding phylogenetic trees in terms of weighted quartets.

PubMed

Grünewald, Stefan; Huber, Katharina T; Moulton, Vincent; Semple, Charles

2008-04-01

One of the main problems in phylogenetics is to develop systematic methods for constructing evolutionary or phylogenetic trees. For a set of species X, an edge-weighted phylogenetic X-tree or phylogenetic tree is a (graph theoretical) tree with leaf set X and no degree 2 vertices, together with a map assigning a non-negative length to each edge of the tree. Within phylogenetics, several methods have been proposed for constructing such trees that work by trying to piece together quartet trees on X, i.e. phylogenetic trees each having four leaves in X. Hence, it is of interest to characterise when a collection of quartet trees corresponds to a (unique) phylogenetic tree. Recently, Dress and Erdös provided such a characterisation for binary phylogenetic trees, that is, phylogenetic trees all of whose internal vertices have degree 3. Here we provide a new characterisation for arbitrary phylogenetic trees.

TreeCmp: Comparison of Trees in Polynomial Time

PubMed Central

Bogdanowicz, Damian; Giaro, Krzysztof; Wróbel, Borys

2012-01-01

When a phylogenetic reconstruction does not result in one tree but in several, tree metrics permit finding out how far the reconstructed trees are from one another. They also permit to assess the accuracy of a reconstruction if a true tree is known. TreeCmp implements eight metrics that can be calculated in polynomial time for arbitrary (not only bifurcating) trees: four for unrooted (Matching Split metric, which we have recently proposed, Robinson-Foulds, Path Difference, Quartet) and four for rooted trees (Matching Cluster, Robinson-Foulds cluster, Nodal Splitted and Triple). TreeCmp is the first implementation of Matching Split/Cluster metrics and the first efficient and convenient implementation of Nodal Splitted. It allows to compare relatively large trees. We provide an example of the application of TreeCmp to compare the accuracy of ten approaches to phylogenetic reconstruction with trees up to 5000 external nodes, using a measure of accuracy based on normalized similarity between trees.

Two Trees: Migrating Fault Trees to Decision Trees for Real Time Fault Detection on International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Charles; Alena, Richard L.; Robinson, Peter

2004-01-01

We started from ISS fault trees example to migrate to decision trees, presented a method to convert fault trees to decision trees. The method shows that the visualizations of root cause of fault are easier and the tree manipulating becomes more programmatic via available decision tree programs. The visualization of decision trees for the diagnostic shows a format of straight forward and easy understands. For ISS real time fault diagnostic, the status of the systems could be shown by mining the signals through the trees and see where it stops at. The other advantage to use decision trees is that the trees can learn the fault patterns and predict the future fault from the historic data. The learning is not only on the static data sets but also can be online, through accumulating the real time data sets, the decision trees can gain and store faults patterns in the trees and recognize them when they come.

Audubon Tree Study Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

Included are an illustrated student reader, "The Story of Trees," a leaders' guide, and a large tree chart with 37 colored pictures. The student reader reviews several aspects of trees: a definition of a tree; where and how trees grow; flowers, pollination and seed production; how trees make their food; how to recognize trees; seasonal changes;…

Heterogeneous Compression of Large Collections of Evolutionary Trees.

PubMed

Matthews, Suzanne J

2015-01-01

Compressing heterogeneous collections of trees is an open problem in computational phylogenetics. In a heterogeneous tree collection, each tree can contain a unique set of taxa. An ideal compression method would allow for the efficient archival of large tree collections and enable scientists to identify common evolutionary relationships over disparate analyses. In this paper, we extend TreeZip to compress heterogeneous collections of trees. TreeZip is the most efficient algorithm for compressing homogeneous tree collections. To the best of our knowledge, no other domain-based compression algorithm exists for large heterogeneous tree collections or enable their rapid analysis. Our experimental results indicate that TreeZip averages 89.03 percent (72.69 percent) space savings on unweighted (weighted) collections of trees when the level of heterogeneity in a collection is moderate. The organization of the TRZ file allows for efficient computations over heterogeneous data. For example, consensus trees can be computed in mere seconds. Lastly, combining the TreeZip compressed (TRZ) file with general-purpose compression yields average space savings of 97.34 percent (81.43 percent) on unweighted (weighted) collections of trees. Our results lead us to believe that TreeZip will prove invaluable in the efficient archival of tree collections, and enables scientists to develop novel methods for relating heterogeneous collections of trees.

36 CFR 223.4 - Exchange of trees or portions of trees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Exchange of trees or portions of trees. 223.4 Section 223.4 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF... PRODUCTS General Provisions § 223.4 Exchange of trees or portions of trees. Trees or portions of trees may...

36 CFR 223.4 - Exchange of trees or portions of trees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Exchange of trees or portions of trees. 223.4 Section 223.4 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF... PRODUCTS General Provisions § 223.4 Exchange of trees or portions of trees. Trees or portions of trees may...

36 CFR 223.4 - Exchange of trees or portions of trees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Exchange of trees or portions of trees. 223.4 Section 223.4 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF... PRODUCTS General Provisions § 223.4 Exchange of trees or portions of trees. Trees or portions of trees may...

36 CFR 223.4 - Exchange of trees or portions of trees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Exchange of trees or portions of trees. 223.4 Section 223.4 Parks, Forests, and Public Property FOREST SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF... PRODUCTS General Provisions § 223.4 Exchange of trees or portions of trees. Trees or portions of trees may...

7 CFR 1416.701 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 2005 Hurricane Tree Assistance Program § 1416.701 Definitions. Application means the “2005 Hurricane Tree Assistance Program” Application form. Fruit tree means a woody perennial plant having a single... acreage of the same crop of trees (including Christmas trees, ornamental trees, nursery trees, and potted...

Functional polymorphisms of circadian negative feedback regulation genes are associated with clinical outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving radical resection.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhaohui; Ma, Fei; Zhou, Feng; Chen, Yibing; Wang, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Hongxin; Zhu, Yong; Bi, Jianwei; Zhang, Yiguan

2014-12-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that circadian negative feedback loop genes play an important role in the development and progression of many cancers. However, the associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in these genes and the clinical outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after surgical resection have not been studied so far. Thirteen functional SNPs in circadian genes were genotyped using the Sequenom iPLEX genotyping system in a cohort of 489 Chinese HCC patients who received radical resection. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and Kaplan-Meier curve were used for the prognosis analysis. Cumulative effect analysis and survival tree analysis were used for the multiple SNPs analysis. Four individual SNPs, including rs3027178 in PER1, rs228669 and rs2640908 in PER3 and rs3809236 in CRY1, were significantly associated with overall survival (OS) of HCC patients, and three SNPs, including rs3027178 in PER1, rs228729 in PER3 and rs3809236 in CRY1, were significantly associated with recurrence-free survival (RFS). Moreover, we observed a cumulative effect of significant SNPs on OS and RFS (P for trend < 0.001 for both). Survival tree analysis indicated that wild genotype of rs228729 in PER3 was the primary risk factor contributing to HCC patients' RFS. Our study suggests that the polymorphisms in circadian negative feedback loop genes may serve as independent prognostic biomarkers in predicting clinical outcomes for HCC patients who received radical resection. Further studies with different ethnicities are needed to validate our findings and generalize its clinical utility.

Foreign bodies in tracheobronchial tree in children: a review of cases over a twenty-year period.

PubMed

Yeh, L C; Li, H Y; Huang, T S

1998-03-01

Foreign body inhalation into the tracheobronchial tree of children is rather rare but serious problem. It may be hazardous and even cause fatal sequelae in the children if misdiagnosed and not managed promptly. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 81 patients with foreign bodies inhaled into the larynx, trachea and bronchi. The children were all treated during the 20-year period from July 1976 through June 1996 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. Of these patients, 82% were 36 months of age or younger. The male to female ratio was 3:1. All of the patients initially received flexible fiberoptic bronchoscopy to identify the foreign objects. The foreign bodies were removed by jet ventilation bronchoscopy with apneic techniques under general anesthesia. Peanuts were found to be the most common causative foreign body agent which occurred in 53 instances (65%). The most common manifestation was coughing, with subsequent dyspnea and audible wheezing. The foreign bodies were lodged in the left bronchus more than in the right. The most obvious radiologic evidence observed in aspirated children were emphysematous changes at same side of the foreign bodies caused by "expansile check-valve" phenomenon. Four patients showed radio-opaque objects on chest roentgenograms. Six patients required second extraction procedures due to the retained foreign bodies. Neither serious complications nor deaths occurred in these patients due to the foreign body inhalation. Early diagnosis and management is essential in children with foreign bodies in the airways to prevent morbidity or death. Small materials or food bits should be kept far away from young child.

Analysis of Publically Available Skin Sensitization Data from REACH Registrations 2008–2014

PubMed Central

Luechtefeld, Thomas; Maertens, Alexandra; Russo, Daniel P.; Rovida, Costanza; Zhu, Hao; Hartung, Thomas

2017-01-01

Summary The public data on skin sensitization from REACH registrations already included 19,111 studies on skin sensitization in December 2014, making it the largest repository of such data so far (1,470 substances with mouse LLNA, 2,787 with GPMT, 762 with both in vivo and in vitro and 139 with only in vitro data). 21% were classified as sensitizers. The extracted skin sensitization data was analyzed to identify relationships in skin sensitization guidelines, visualize structural relationships of sensitizers, and build models to predict sensitization. A chemical with molecular weight > 500 Da is generally considered non-sensitizing owing to low bioavailability, but 49 sensitizing chemicals with a molecular weight > 500 Da were found. A chemical similarity map was produced using PubChem’s 2D Tanimoto similarity metric and Gephi force layout visualization. Nine clusters of chemicals were identified by Blondel’s module recognition algorithm revealing wide module-dependent variation. Approximately 31% of mapped chemicals are Michael’s acceptors but alone this does not imply skin sensitization. A simple sensitization model using molecular weight and five ToxTree structural alerts showed a balanced accuracy of 65.8% (specificity 80.4%, sensitivity 51.4%), demonstrating that structural alerts have information value. A simple variant of k-nearest neighbors outperformed the ToxTree approach even at 75% similarity threshold (82% balanced accuracy at 0.95 threshold). At higher thresholds, the balanced accuracy increased. Lower similarity thresholds decrease sensitivity faster than specificity. This analysis scopes the landscape of chemical skin sensitization, demonstrating the value of large public datasets for health hazard prediction. PMID:26863411

Psychotropic Pharmacotherapy Associated With QT Prolongation Among Veterans With Posttraumatic Stress Disorder.

PubMed

Stock, Eileen M; Zeber, John E; McNeal, Catherine J; Banchs, Javier E; Copeland, Laurel A

2018-04-01

In 2012, the Food and Drug Administration issued Drug Safety Communications on several drugs associated with QT prolongation and fatal ventricular arrhythmias. Among these was citalopram, a selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) approved for depression and commonly used for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Evaluation of the risk for QT prolongation among other psychotropic drugs for individuals with PTSD remains limited. Explore psychotropic drugs associated with QT prolongation among veterans with PTSD. Patients in the Veterans Health Administration in 2006-2009 with PTSD and QT prolongation (176 cases) were matched 1:4 on age, gender, visit date and setting, and physical comorbidity. Classification trees assessed QT prolongation risk among prescribed medications (n=880). Receipt of any drug with known risk of QT prolongation varied by group (23% QT cases vs 15% control, p<0.01). Psychotropic medications conferring significant risks included ziprasidone (3% vs 1%, p=0.02) and buspirone (6% vs 2%, p=0.01). Increased risk was not observed for the SSRIs, citalopram and fluoxetine. Classification trees found that sotalol and amitriptyline carried greater risk among cardiac patients and methadone, especially if prescribed with quetiapine, among noncardiac patients. Per adjusted survival model, patients with QT prolongation were at increased risk for death (hazard ratio=1.60; 95% CI=1.04-2.44). Decision models are particularly advantageous when exploring nonlinear relationships or nonadditive interactions. These findings may potentially affect clinical decision-making concerning treatment for PTSD. For patients at higher risk of QT prolongation, antidepressants other than amitriptyline should be considered. Medications for comorbid conditions should also be closely monitored for heightened QT prolongation risk.

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent.

PubMed

Allman, Elizabeth S; Degnan, James H; Rhodes, John A

2011-06-01

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals-each with many genes-splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.

Liana competition with tropical trees varies seasonally but not with tree species identity.

PubMed

Leonor, Alvarez-Cansino; Schnitzer, Stefan A; Reid, Joseph P; Powers, Jennifer S

2015-01-01

Lianas in tropical forests compete intensely with trees for above- and belowground resources and limit tree growth and regeneration. Liana competition with adult canopy trees may be particularly strong, and, if lianas compete more intensely with some tree species than others, they may influence tree species composition. We performed the first systematic, large-scale liana removal experiment to assess the competitive effects of lianas on multiple tropical tree species by measuring sap velocity and growth in a lowland tropical forest in Panama. Tree sap velocity increased 60% soon after liana removal compared to control trees, and tree diameter growth increased 25% after one year. Although tree species varied in their response to lianas, this variation was not significant, suggesting that lianas competed similarly with all tree species examined. The effect of lianas on tree sap velocity was particularly strong during the dry season, when soil moisture was low, suggesting that lianas compete intensely with trees for water. Under the predicted global change scenario of increased temperature and drought intensity, competition from lianas may become more prevalent in seasonal tropical forests, which, according to our data, should have a negative effect on most tropical tree species.

ColorTree: a batch customization tool for phylogenic trees

PubMed Central

Chen, Wei-Hua; Lercher, Martin J

2009-01-01

Background Genome sequencing projects and comparative genomics studies typically aim to trace the evolutionary history of large gene sets, often requiring human inspection of hundreds of phylogenetic trees. If trees are checked for compatibility with an explicit null hypothesis (e.g., the monophyly of certain groups), this daunting task is greatly facilitated by an appropriate coloring scheme. Findings In this note, we introduce ColorTree, a simple yet powerful batch customization tool for phylogenic trees. Based on pattern matching rules, ColorTree applies a set of customizations to an input tree file, e.g., coloring labels or branches. The customized trees are saved to an output file, which can then be viewed and further edited by Dendroscope (a freely available tree viewer). ColorTree runs on any Perl installation as a stand-alone command line tool, and its application can thus be easily automated. This way, hundreds of phylogenic trees can be customized for easy visual inspection in a matter of minutes. Conclusion ColorTree allows efficient and flexible visual customization of large tree sets through the application of a user-supplied configuration file to multiple tree files. PMID:19646243

ColorTree: a batch customization tool for phylogenic trees.

PubMed

Chen, Wei-Hua; Lercher, Martin J

2009-07-31

Genome sequencing projects and comparative genomics studies typically aim to trace the evolutionary history of large gene sets, often requiring human inspection of hundreds of phylogenetic trees. If trees are checked for compatibility with an explicit null hypothesis (e.g., the monophyly of certain groups), this daunting task is greatly facilitated by an appropriate coloring scheme. In this note, we introduce ColorTree, a simple yet powerful batch customization tool for phylogenic trees. Based on pattern matching rules, ColorTree applies a set of customizations to an input tree file, e.g., coloring labels or branches. The customized trees are saved to an output file, which can then be viewed and further edited by Dendroscope (a freely available tree viewer). ColorTree runs on any Perl installation as a stand-alone command line tool, and its application can thus be easily automated. This way, hundreds of phylogenic trees can be customized for easy visual inspection in a matter of minutes. ColorTree allows efficient and flexible visual customization of large tree sets through the application of a user-supplied configuration file to multiple tree files.

Semiautomated landscape feature extraction and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasilewski, Anthony A.; Faust, Nickolas L.; Ribarsky, William

2001-08-01

We have developed a semi-automated procedure for generating correctly located 3D tree objects form overhead imagery. Cross-platform software partitions arbitrarily large, geocorrected and geolocated imagery into management sub- images. The user manually selected tree areas from one or more of these sub-images. Tree group blobs are then narrowed to lines using a special thinning algorithm which retains the topology of the blobs, and also stores the thickness of the parent blob. Maxima along these thinned tree grous are found, and used as individual tree locations within the tree group. Magnitudes of the local maxima are used to scale the radii of the tree objects. Grossly overlapping trees are culled based on a comparison of tree-tree distance to combined radii. Tree color is randomly selected based on the distribution of sample tree pixels, and height is estimated form tree radius. The final tree objects are then inserted into a terrain database which can be navigated by VGIS, a high-resolution global terrain visualization system developed at Georgia Tech.

Assessing vulnerability to vegetation growth on earth dikes using geophysical investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mary, Benjamin; Saracco, Ginette; Peyras, Laurent; Vennetier, Michel; Mériaux, Patrice

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean Basin is prone to a plethora of natural hazards including floods. Vegetation growth in hydraulic earth structures, such as flood protections or channel levees and dams, may induce several degradation mechanisms leading to a risk of failure. Typically, trees' rooting generates two types of risks: internal erosion from root development in earth embankments, and external erosion (slopes and crest) which is often related to trees uprooting. To better assess how woody vegetation can compromise levee integrity, we designed a methodology using acoustical and complex electrical tomography as non destructives methods to spot dangerous roots in the embankment. Our work has been first initiated during laboratory experiments; we performed soundings in controlled conditions to determine both acoustical and electrical intrinsic behavior of our root samples. By comparison with soil samples we expected to point out specific signatures that would be useful for the roots anomaly identification in real conditions. Measurements were repeated on several samples to ensure statistical interpretation. With help of an ultrasonic transmission device, we identified significant relative velocity differences of compressional waves propagation between soil and root samples. We also studied spectral properties using wavelet processing method as an additional parameter of root distinction with the surrounding soil. In the case of electrical soundings, complex resistivity was measured and we computed resistivity spectra. Amplitude of resistivity term showed us that root material behaves as an insulator compared to the soil. With the phase resistivity term information, root can also be seen as an electric power capacitance and reveals maximum polarization effect located around 1Hz. Then, as experimental device for the field measurements, we selected a 320 cm high poplar (Populus) planted in a homogeneous loamy-clayed soil, which is the same soil used in laboratory experiment to keep comparable conditions. Validity of geophysics data obtained was compared with results from excavation of the first decimeters of soil which allowed defining actual position, geometry and size of root system. For acoustical prospection, we reproduced RINNTECH® methodology on field. The technique relies on measuring the travel time between two sensors, respectively a mobile source defining a mesh all around the tree and fixed receivers on the tree stem. Our results showed that information provided by the amplitude of recorded wave seemed more relevant than the velocity term to discriminate roots from the soil. Unfortunately the signal at very low frequency was noisy which prevents an easy interpretation of spectral properties. From electrical tomography measurements, high resolution inverted images were obtained and showed correlation between roots direction and depth, and phase anomalies. This result was yet found with a too low resolution. Both complex resistivity tomography and acoustical prospection shows considerable promise to map tree roots. Considering a coupling approach is appreciable because each method is sensitive to a different physical parameter. This provides more information and facilitates the interpretation of variability observed in real conditions, where a lot of external parameters can disturb the information requested.

Long‐term time‐dependent probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David A.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Thomas E.; Powers, Peter; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J.; Zeng, Yuehua

2015-01-01

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2014) presents time-dependent earthquake probabilities for the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3). Building on the UCERF3 time-independent model, published previously, renewal models are utilized to represent elastic-rebound-implied probabilities. A new methodology has been developed that solves applicability issues in the previous approach for un-segmented models. The new methodology also supports magnitude-dependent aperiodicity and accounts for the historic open interval on faults that lack a date-of-last-event constraint. Epistemic uncertainties are represented with a logic tree, producing 5,760 different forecasts. Results for a variety of evaluation metrics are presented, including logic-tree sensitivity analyses and comparisons to the previous model (UCERF2). For 30-year M≥6.7 probabilities, the most significant changes from UCERF2 are a threefold increase on the Calaveras fault and a threefold decrease on the San Jacinto fault. Such changes are due mostly to differences in the time-independent models (e.g., fault slip rates), with relaxation of segmentation and inclusion of multi-fault ruptures being particularly influential. In fact, some UCERF2 faults were simply too long to produce M 6.7 sized events given the segmentation assumptions in that study. Probability model differences are also influential, with the implied gains (relative to a Poisson model) being generally higher in UCERF3. Accounting for the historic open interval is one reason. Another is an effective 27% increase in the total elastic-rebound-model weight. The exact factors influencing differences between UCERF2 and UCERF3, as well as the relative importance of logic-tree branches, vary throughout the region, and depend on the evaluation metric of interest. For example, M≥6.7 probabilities may not be a good proxy for other hazard or loss measures. This sensitivity, coupled with the approximate nature of the model and known limitations, means the applicability of UCERF3 should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Temporal effects of prescribed burning on terpene production in Mediterranean pines.

PubMed

Valor, Teresa; Ormeño, Elena; Casals, Pere

2017-12-01

Prescribed burning is used to reduce fuel hazard but underburning can damage standing trees. The effect of burning on needle terpene storage, a proxy for secondary metabolism, in fire-damaged pines is poorly understood despite the protection terpenes confer against biotic and abiotic stressors. We investigated variation in needle terpene storage after burning in three Mediterranean pine species featuring different adaptations to fire regimes. In two pure-stands of Pinus halepensis Mill. and two mixed-stands of Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra ssp. salzmanni (Dunal) Franco, we compared 24 h and 1 year post-burning concentrations with pre-burning concentrations in 20 trees per species, and evaluated the relative contribution of tree fire severity and physiological condition (δ13C and N concentration) on temporal terpene dynamics (for mono- sesqui- and diterpenes). Twenty-four hours post-burning, monoterpene concentrations were slightly higher in P. halepensis than at pre-burning, while values were similar in P. sylvestris. Differently, in the more fire-resistant P. nigra monoterpene concentrations were lower at 24 h, compared with pre-burning. One year post-burning, concentrations were always lower compared with pre- or 24 h post-burning, regardless of the terpene group. Mono- and sesquiterpene variations were negatively related to pre-burning δ13C, while diterpene variations were associated with fire-induced changes in needle δ13C and N concentration. At both post-burning times, mono- and diterpene concentrations increased significantly with crown scorch volume in all species. Differences in post-burning terpene contents as a function of the pine species' sensitivity to fire suggest that terpenic metabolites could have adaptive importance in fire-prone ecosystems in terms of flammability or defence against biotic agents post-burning. One year post-burning, our results suggest that in a context of fire-induced resource availability, pines likely prioritize primary rather than secondary metabolism. Overall, this study contributes to the assessment of the direct and indirect effects of fire on pine terpene storage, providing valuable information about their vulnerability to biotic and abiotic stressors throughout time. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

7 CFR 1416.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... perished or suffered losses due to an eligible hurricane. Tier means the geographic bands of damage... hurricanes. Tree means a tree (including a Christmas tree, ornamental tree, nursery tree, and potted tree...

7 CFR 1416.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... perished or suffered losses due to an eligible hurricane. Tier means the geographic bands of damage... hurricanes. Tree means a tree (including a Christmas tree, ornamental tree, nursery tree, and potted tree...

7 CFR 1416.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... perished or suffered losses due to an eligible hurricane. Tier means the geographic bands of damage... hurricanes. Tree means a tree (including a Christmas tree, ornamental tree, nursery tree, and potted tree...

7 CFR 1416.4 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... perished or suffered losses due to an eligible hurricane. Tier means the geographic bands of damage... hurricanes. Tree means a tree (including a Christmas tree, ornamental tree, nursery tree, and potted tree...

Technical Tree Climbing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jenkins, Peter

Tree climbing offers a safe, inexpensive adventure sport that can be performed almost anywhere. Using standard procedures practiced in tree surgery or rock climbing, almost any tree can be climbed. Tree climbing provides challenge and adventure as well as a vigorous upper-body workout. Tree Climbers International classifies trees using a system…

The potential of the tree water potential.

PubMed

Steppe, Kathy

2018-06-12

Non-invasive quantification of tree water potential is one of the grand challenges for assessing the fate of trees and forests in the coming decades. Tree water potential is a robust and direct indicator of tree water status and is preferably used to track how trees, forests and vegetation in general respond to changes in climate and drought. In this issue of Tree Physiology, Dietrich et al. (2018) predict the daily canopy water potential of mature temperate trees from tree water deficit derived from stem diameter variation measurements.

[Difference of water relationships of poplar trees in Zhangbei County, Hebei, China based on stable isotope and thermal dissipation method].

PubMed

Miao, Bo; Meng, Ping; Zhang, Jin Song; He, Fang Jie; Sun, Shou Jia

2017-07-18

The water sources and transpiration of poplar trees in Zhangbei County were measured using stable hydrogen isotope and thermal dissipation method. The differences in water relationships between dieback and non-dieback poplar trees were analyzed. The results showed that the dieback trees mainly used shallow water from 0-30 cm soil layer during growing season while the non-dieback trees mainly used water from 30-80 cm soil layer. There was a significant difference in water source between them. The non-dieback trees used more water from middle and deep soil layers than that of the dieback trees during the dry season. The percentage of poplar trees using water from 0-30 cm soil layer increased in wet season, and the increase of dieback trees was higher than that of non-dieback trees. The contributions of water from 30-180 cm soil layer of dieback and non-dieback trees both decreased in wet season. The sap flow rate of non-dieback trees was higher than that of dieback trees. There was a similar variation tend of sap flow rate between dieback and non-dieback trees in different weather conditions, but the start time of sap flow of non-dieback trees was earlier than that of dieback trees. Correlation analysis showed that the sap flow rate of either dieback or non-dieback poplar trees strongly related to soil temperature, wind speed, photosynthetically active radiation, relative humidity and air temperature. The sap flow rate of die-back poplar trees strongly negatively related to soil temperature and relative humidity, and strongly positively related to the other factors. The sap flow rate of non-dieback poplar trees only strongly negatively related to relative humidity but positively related to the other factors. The results revealed transpiration of both poplar trees was easily affected by environmental factors. The water consumption of dieback trees was less than non-dieback trees because the cumulative sap flow amount of dieback trees was lower. Reduced transpiration of dieback trees couldn't help to prevent poplar forest declining due to shallow water source.

Geospatial Technologies and i-Tree Echo Inventory for Predicting Climate Change on Urban Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sriharan, S.; Robinson, L.; Ghariban, N.; Comar, M.; Pope, B.; Frey, G.

2015-12-01

Urban forests can be useful both in mitigating climate change and in helping cities adapt to higher temperatures and other impacts of climate change. Understanding and managing the impacts of climate change on the urban forest trees and natural communities will help us maintain their environmental, cultural, and economic benefits. Tree Inventory can provide important information on tree species, height, crown width, overall condition, health and maintenance needs. This presentation will demonstrate that a trees database system is necessary for developing a sustainable urban tree program. Virginia State University (VSU) campus benefits from large number and diversity of trees that are helping us by cleaning the air, retaining water, and providing shade on the buildings to reduce energy cost. The objectives of this study were to develop campus inventory of the trees, identify the tree species, map the locations of the trees with user-friendly tools such as i-Tree Eco and geospatial technologies by assessing the cost/benefit of employing student labor for training and ground validation of the results, and help campus landscape managers implement adaptive responses to climate change impacts. Data was collected on the location, species, and size of trees by using i-Tree urban forestry analysis software. This data was transferred to i-Tree inventory system for demonstrating types of trees, diameter of the trees, height of the trees, and vintage of the trees. The study site was mapped by collecting waypoints with GPS (Global Positioning System) at the trees and uploading these waypoints in ArcMap. The results of this study showed that: (i) students make good field crews, (ii) if more trees were placed in the proper area, the heating and cooling costs will reduce, and (iii) trees database system is necessary for planning, designing, planting, and maintenance, and removal of campus trees Research sponsored by the NIFA Grant, "Urban Forestry Management" (2012-38821-20153).

Tree Rings: Timekeepers of the Past.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phipps, R. L.; McGowan, J.

One of a series of general interest publications on science issues, this booklet describes the uses of tree rings in historical and biological recordkeeping. Separate sections cover the following topics: dating of tree rings, dating with tree rings, tree ring formation, tree ring identification, sample collections, tree ring cross dating, tree…

Terpenoid Variations within and among Half-Sibling Avocado Trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae)

PubMed Central

Niogret, Jerome; Epsky, Nancy D.; Schnell, Raymond J.; Boza, Edward J.; Kendra, Paul E.; Heath, Robert R.

2013-01-01

Chemical analyses were conducted to determine the qualitative and quantitative differences in monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes in plant material from avocado trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae). The initial study analyzed plant material sampled from the trunk to the leaves through different branch diameters to quantify proximo-distal spatial differences within a tree. All trees were seedlings initiated from a single maternal tree. Two-way analysis of variance was conducted on 34 chemicals that comprised at least 3% of the total chemical content of at least one tree and/or location within a tree. There were significant interactions between genotype and location sampled for most chemicals. Parentage analysis using microsatellite molecular markers (SSR's) determined that the four trees had three fathers and that they represented two full-siblings and two half-sibling trees. Descriptive discriminant analysis found that both genotype and location within a tree could be separated based on chemical content, and that the chemical content from full-siblings tended to be more similar than chemical content from half-siblings. To further explore the relationship between genetic background and chemical content, samples were analyzed from leaf material from 20 trees that included two sets of full-sibling seedling trees, the maternal tree and the surviving paternal tree. Descriptive discriminant analysis found good separation between the two full-sibling groups, and that the separation was associated with chemistry of the parental trees. Six groups of chemicals were identified that explained the variation among the trees. We discuss the results in relation to the discrimination process used by wood-boring insects for site-selection on host trees, for tree selection among potential host trees, and the potential use of terpenoid chemical content in chemotaxonomy of avocado trees. PMID:24039994

Terpenoid variations within and among half-sibling avocado trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae).

PubMed

Niogret, Jerome; Epsky, Nancy D; Schnell, Raymond J; Boza, Edward J; Kendra, Paul E; Heath, Robert R

2013-01-01

Chemical analyses were conducted to determine the qualitative and quantitative differences in monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes in plant material from avocado trees, Persea americana Mill. (Lauraceae). The initial study analyzed plant material sampled from the trunk to the leaves through different branch diameters to quantify proximo-distal spatial differences within a tree. All trees were seedlings initiated from a single maternal tree. Two-way analysis of variance was conducted on 34 chemicals that comprised at least 3% of the total chemical content of at least one tree and/or location within a tree. There were significant interactions between genotype and location sampled for most chemicals. Parentage analysis using microsatellite molecular markers (SSR's) determined that the four trees had three fathers and that they represented two full-siblings and two half-sibling trees. Descriptive discriminant analysis found that both genotype and location within a tree could be separated based on chemical content, and that the chemical content from full-siblings tended to be more similar than chemical content from half-siblings. To further explore the relationship between genetic background and chemical content, samples were analyzed from leaf material from 20 trees that included two sets of full-sibling seedling trees, the maternal tree and the surviving paternal tree. Descriptive discriminant analysis found good separation between the two full-sibling groups, and that the separation was associated with chemistry of the parental trees. Six groups of chemicals were identified that explained the variation among the trees. We discuss the results in relation to the discrimination process used by wood-boring insects for site-selection on host trees, for tree selection among potential host trees, and the potential use of terpenoid chemical content in chemotaxonomy of avocado trees.

Current and Potential Tree Locations in Tree Line Ecotone of Changbai Mountains, Northeast China: The Controlling Effects of Topography

PubMed Central

Zong, Shengwei; Wu, Zhengfang; Xu, Jiawei; Li, Ming; Gao, Xiaofeng; He, Hongshi; Du, Haibo; Wang, Lei

2014-01-01

Tree line ecotone in the Changbai Mountains has undergone large changes in the past decades. Tree locations show variations on the four sides of the mountains, especially on the northern and western sides, which has not been fully explained. Previous studies attributed such variations to the variations in temperature. However, in this study, we hypothesized that topographic controls were responsible for causing the variations in the tree locations in tree line ecotone of the Changbai Mountains. To test the hypothesis, we used IKONOS images and WorldView-1 image to identify the tree locations and developed a logistic regression model using topographical variables to identify the dominant controls of the tree locations. The results showed that aspect, wetness, and slope were dominant controls for tree locations on western side of the mountains, whereas altitude, SPI, and aspect were the dominant factors on northern side. The upmost altitude a tree can currently reach was 2140 m asl on the northern side and 2060 m asl on western side. The model predicted results showed that habitats above the current tree line on the both sides were available for trees. Tree recruitments under the current tree line may take advantage of the available habitats at higher elevations based on the current tree location. Our research confirmed the controlling effects of topography on the tree locations in the tree line ecotone of Changbai Mountains and suggested that it was essential to assess the tree response to topography in the research of tree line ecotone. PMID:25170918

The relationship between tree growth patterns and likelihood of mortality: A study of two tree species in the Sierra Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, A.J.; Battles, J.J.; Stephenson, N.L.; van Mantgem, P.J.

2007-01-01

We examined mortality of Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. (white fir) and Pinus lambertiana Dougl. (sugar pine) by developing logistic models using three growth indices obtained from tree rings: average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt growth declines. For P. lambertiana, models with average growth, growth trend, and count of abrupt declines improved overall prediction (78.6% dead trees correctly classified, 83.7% live trees correctly classified) compared with a model with average recent growth alone (69.6% dead trees correctly classified, 67.3% live trees correctly classified). For A. concolor, counts of abrupt declines and longer time intervals improved overall classification (trees with DBH ???20 cm: 78.9% dead trees correctly classified and 76.7% live trees correctly classified vs. 64.9% dead trees correctly classified and 77.9% live trees correctly classified; trees with DBH <20 cm: 71.6% dead trees correctly classified and 71.0% live trees correctly classified vs. 67.2% dead trees correctly classified and 66.7% live trees correctly classified). In general, count of abrupt declines improved live-tree classification. External validation of A. concolor models showed that they functioned well at stands not used in model development, and the development of size-specific models demonstrated important differences in mortality risk between understory and canopy trees. Population-level mortality-risk models were developed for A. concolor and generated realistic mortality rates at two sites. Our results support the contention that a more comprehensive use of the growth record yields a more robust assessment of mortality risk. ?? 2007 NRC.

Current and potential tree locations in tree line ecotone of Changbai Mountains, Northeast China: the controlling effects of topography.

PubMed

Zong, Shengwei; Wu, Zhengfang; Xu, Jiawei; Li, Ming; Gao, Xiaofeng; He, Hongshi; Du, Haibo; Wang, Lei

2014-01-01

Tree line ecotone in the Changbai Mountains has undergone large changes in the past decades. Tree locations show variations on the four sides of the mountains, especially on the northern and western sides, which has not been fully explained. Previous studies attributed such variations to the variations in temperature. However, in this study, we hypothesized that topographic controls were responsible for causing the variations in the tree locations in tree line ecotone of the Changbai Mountains. To test the hypothesis, we used IKONOS images and WorldView-1 image to identify the tree locations and developed a logistic regression model using topographical variables to identify the dominant controls of the tree locations. The results showed that aspect, wetness, and slope were dominant controls for tree locations on western side of the mountains, whereas altitude, SPI, and aspect were the dominant factors on northern side. The upmost altitude a tree can currently reach was 2140 m asl on the northern side and 2060 m asl on western side. The model predicted results showed that habitats above the current tree line on the both sides were available for trees. Tree recruitments under the current tree line may take advantage of the available habitats at higher elevations based on the current tree location. Our research confirmed the controlling effects of topography on the tree locations in the tree line ecotone of Changbai Mountains and suggested that it was essential to assess the tree response to topography in the research of tree line ecotone.

Tree-space statistics and approximations for large-scale analysis of anatomical trees.

PubMed

Feragen, Aasa; Owen, Megan; Petersen, Jens; Wille, Mathilde M W; Thomsen, Laura H; Dirksen, Asger; de Bruijne, Marleen

2013-01-01

Statistical analysis of anatomical trees is hard to perform due to differences in the topological structure of the trees. In this paper we define statistical properties of leaf-labeled anatomical trees with geometric edge attributes by considering the anatomical trees as points in the geometric space of leaf-labeled trees. This tree-space is a geodesic metric space where any two trees are connected by a unique shortest path, which corresponds to a tree deformation. However, tree-space is not a manifold, and the usual strategy of performing statistical analysis in a tangent space and projecting onto tree-space is not available. Using tree-space and its shortest paths, a variety of statistical properties, such as mean, principal component, hypothesis testing and linear discriminant analysis can be defined. For some of these properties it is still an open problem how to compute them; others (like the mean) can be computed, but efficient alternatives are helpful in speeding up algorithms that use means iteratively, like hypothesis testing. In this paper, we take advantage of a very large dataset (N = 8016) to obtain computable approximations, under the assumption that the data trees parametrize the relevant parts of tree-space well. Using the developed approximate statistics, we illustrate how the structure and geometry of airway trees vary across a population and show that airway trees with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease come from a different distribution in tree-space than healthy ones. Software is available from http://image.diku.dk/aasa/software.php.

Trees are good, but…

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson; F. Ferrini

2010-01-01

We know that “trees are good,” and most people believe this to be true. But if this is so, why are so many trees neglected, and so many tree wells empty? An individual’s attitude toward trees may result from their firsthand encounters with specific trees. Understanding how attitudes about trees are shaped, particularly aversion to trees, is critical to the business of...

Efficient tree tensor network states (TTNS) for quantum chemistry: Generalizations of the density matrix renormalization group algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakatani, Naoki; Chan, Garnet Kin-Lic

2013-04-01

We investigate tree tensor network states for quantum chemistry. Tree tensor network states represent one of the simplest generalizations of matrix product states and the density matrix renormalization group. While matrix product states encode a one-dimensional entanglement structure, tree tensor network states encode a tree entanglement structure, allowing for a more flexible description of general molecules. We describe an optimal tree tensor network state algorithm for quantum chemistry. We introduce the concept of half-renormalization which greatly improves the efficiency of the calculations. Using our efficient formulation we demonstrate the strengths and weaknesses of tree tensor network states versus matrix product states. We carry out benchmark calculations both on tree systems (hydrogen trees and π-conjugated dendrimers) as well as non-tree molecules (hydrogen chains, nitrogen dimer, and chromium dimer). In general, tree tensor network states require much fewer renormalized states to achieve the same accuracy as matrix product states. In non-tree molecules, whether this translates into a computational savings is system dependent, due to the higher prefactor and computational scaling associated with tree algorithms. In tree like molecules, tree network states are easily superior to matrix product states. As an illustration, our largest dendrimer calculation with tree tensor network states correlates 110 electrons in 110 active orbitals.

Coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Noah A

2013-01-01

A coalescent history is an assignment of branches of a gene tree to branches of a species tree on which coalescences in the gene tree occur. The number of coalescent histories for a pair consisting of a labeled gene tree topology and a labeled species tree topology is important in gene tree probability computations, and more generally, in studying evolutionary possibilities for gene trees on species trees. Defining the Tr-caterpillar-like family as a sequence of n-taxon trees constructed by replacing the r-taxon subtree of n-taxon caterpillars by a specific r-taxon labeled topology Tr, we examine the number of coalescent histories for caterpillar-like families with matching gene tree and species tree labeled topologies. For each Tr with size r≤8, we compute the number of coalescent histories for n-taxon trees in the Tr-caterpillar-like family. Next, as n→∞, we find that the limiting ratio of the numbers of coalescent histories for the Tr family and caterpillars themselves is correlated with the number of labeled histories for Tr. The results support a view that large numbers of coalescent histories occur when a tree has both a relatively balanced subtree and a high tree depth, contributing to deeper understanding of the combinatorics of gene trees and species trees.

Application of random survival forests in understanding the determinants of under-five child mortality in Uganda in the presence of covariates that satisfy the proportional and non-proportional hazards assumption.

PubMed

Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry

2017-09-07

Uganda just like any other Sub-Saharan African country, has a high under-five child mortality rate. To inform policy on intervention strategies, sound statistical methods are required to critically identify factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates. The Cox proportional hazards model has been a common choice in analysing data to understand factors strongly associated with high child mortality rates taking age as the time-to-event variable. However, due to its restrictive proportional hazards (PH) assumption, some covariates of interest which do not satisfy the assumption are often excluded in the analysis to avoid mis-specifying the model. Otherwise using covariates that clearly violate the assumption would mean invalid results. Survival trees and random survival forests are increasingly becoming popular in analysing survival data particularly in the case of large survey data and could be attractive alternatives to models with the restrictive PH assumption. In this article, we adopt random survival forests which have never been used in understanding factors affecting under-five child mortality rates in Uganda using Demographic and Health Survey data. Thus the first part of the analysis is based on the use of the classical Cox PH model and the second part of the analysis is based on the use of random survival forests in the presence of covariates that do not necessarily satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests and the Cox proportional hazards model agree that the sex of the household head, sex of the child, number of births in the past 1 year are strongly associated to under-five child mortality in Uganda given all the three covariates satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests further demonstrated that covariates that were originally excluded from the earlier analysis due to violation of the PH assumption were important in explaining under-five child mortality rates. These covariates include the number of children under the age of five in a household, number of births in the past 5 years, wealth index, total number of children ever born and the child's birth order. The results further indicated that the predictive performance for random survival forests built using covariates including those that violate the PH assumption was higher than that for random survival forests built using only covariates that satisfy the PH assumption. Random survival forests are appealing methods in analysing public health data to understand factors strongly associated with under-five child mortality rates especially in the presence of covariates that violate the proportional hazards assumption.

[Sectional structure of a tree. Model analysis of the vertical biomass distribution].

PubMed

Galitskiĭ, V V

2010-01-01

A model has been proposed for the architecture of a tree in which virtual trees appear rhythmically on the treetop. Each consecutive virtual tree is a part of the previous tree. The difference between two adjacent virtual trees is a section--an element of the real tree structure. In case of a spruce, the section represents a verticil of a stem with the corresponding internode. Dynamics of a photosynthesizing part of the physiologically active biomass of each section differ from the corresponding dynamics of the virtual trees and the whole real tree. If the tree biomass dynamics has a sigma-shaped form, then the section dynamics have to be bell-shaped. It means that the lower stem should accordingly become bare, which is typically observed in nature. Model analysis reveals the limiting, in the age, form of trees to be an "umbrella". It can be observed in nature and is an outcome of physical limitation of the tree height combined with the sigma-shaped form of the tree biomass dynamics. Variation of model parameters provides for various forms of the tree biomass distribution along the height, which can be associated with certain biological species of trees.

Growth of a Pine Tree

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollinson, Susan Wells

2012-01-01

The growth of a pine tree is examined by preparing "tree cookies" (cross-sectional disks) between whorls of branches. The use of Christmas trees allows the tree cookies to be obtained with inexpensive, commonly available tools. Students use the tree cookies to investigate the annual growth of the tree and how it corresponds to the number of whorls…

A Metric on Phylogenetic Tree Shapes.

PubMed

Colijn, C; Plazzotta, G

2018-01-01

The shapes of evolutionary trees are influenced by the nature of the evolutionary process but comparisons of trees from different processes are hindered by the challenge of completely describing tree shape. We present a full characterization of the shapes of rooted branching trees in a form that lends itself to natural tree comparisons. We use this characterization to define a metric, in the sense of a true distance function, on tree shapes. The metric distinguishes trees from random models known to produce different tree shapes. It separates trees derived from tropical versus USA influenza A sequences, which reflect the differing epidemiology of tropical and seasonal flu. We describe several metrics based on the same core characterization, and illustrate how to extend the metric to incorporate trees' branch lengths or other features such as overall imbalance. Our approach allows us to construct addition and multiplication on trees, and to create a convex metric on tree shapes which formally allows computation of average tree shapes. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

A Metric on Phylogenetic Tree Shapes

PubMed Central

Plazzotta, G.

2018-01-01

Abstract The shapes of evolutionary trees are influenced by the nature of the evolutionary process but comparisons of trees from different processes are hindered by the challenge of completely describing tree shape. We present a full characterization of the shapes of rooted branching trees in a form that lends itself to natural tree comparisons. We use this characterization to define a metric, in the sense of a true distance function, on tree shapes. The metric distinguishes trees from random models known to produce different tree shapes. It separates trees derived from tropical versus USA influenza A sequences, which reflect the differing epidemiology of tropical and seasonal flu. We describe several metrics based on the same core characterization, and illustrate how to extend the metric to incorporate trees’ branch lengths or other features such as overall imbalance. Our approach allows us to construct addition and multiplication on trees, and to create a convex metric on tree shapes which formally allows computation of average tree shapes. PMID:28472435

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico).

PubMed

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests.

Spatial Distribution Patterns in the Very Rare and Species-Rich Picea chihuahuana Tree Community (Mexico)

PubMed Central

Wehenkel, Christian; Brazão-Protázio, João Marcelo; Carrillo-Parra, Artemio; Martínez-Guerrero, José Hugo; Crecente-Campo, Felipe

2015-01-01

The very rare Mexican Picea chihuahuana tree community covers an area of no more than 300 ha in the Sierra Madre Occidental. This special tree community has been the subject of several studies aimed at learning more about the genetic structure and ecology of the species and the potential effects of climate change. The spatial distribution of trees is a result of many ecological processes and can affect the degree of competition between neighbouring trees, tree density, variability in size and distribution, regeneration, survival, growth, mortality, crown formation and the biological diversity within forest communities. Numerous scale-dependent measures have been established in order to describe spatial forest structure. The overall aim of most of these studies has been to obtain data to help design preservation and conservation strategies. In this study, we examined the spatial distribution pattern of trees in the P. chihuahuana tree community in 12 localities, in relation to i) tree stand density, ii) diameter distribution (vertical structure), iii) tree species diversity, iv) geographical latitude and v) tree dominance at a fine scale (in 0.25 ha plots), with the aim of obtaining a better understanding of the complex ecosystem processes and biological diversity. Because of the strongly mixed nature of this tree community, which often produces low population densities of each tree species and random tree fall gaps caused by tree death, we expect aggregated patterns in individual Picea chihuahuana trees and in the P. chihuahuana tree community, repulsive Picea patterns to other tree species and repulsive patterns of young to adult trees. Each location was represented by one plot of 50 x 50 m (0.25 ha) established in the centre of the tree community. The findings demonstrate that the hypothesis of aggregated tree pattern is not applicable to the mean pattern measured by Clark-Evans index, Uniform Angle index and Mean Directional index of the uneven-aged P. chihuahuana trees and P. chihuahuana tree community and but to specific spatial scales measured by the univariate L-function. The spatial distribution pattern of P. chihuahuana trees was found to be independent of patches of other tree species measured by the bivariate L-function. The spatial distribution was not significantly related to tree density, diameter distribution or tree species diversity. The index of Clark and Evans decreased significantly from the southern to northern plots containing all tree species. Self-thinning due to intra and inter-specific competition-induced mortality is probably the main cause of the decrease in aggregation intensity during the course of population development in this tree community. We recommend the use of larger sampling plots (> 0.25 ha) in uneven-aged and species-rich forest ecosystems to detect less obvious, but important, relationships between spatial tree pattern and functioning and diversity in these forests. PMID:26496189

Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes.

PubMed

Petermann, Jana S; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Gossner, Martin M

2016-01-01

Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and functioning. We furthermore conclude that artificial tree-hole analogues represent a useful experimental alternative to test effects of changes in forest management on natural communities.

Forest Management Intensity Affects Aquatic Communities in Artificial Tree Holes

PubMed Central

Petermann, Jana S.; Rohland, Anja; Sichardt, Nora; Lade, Peggy; Guidetti, Brenda; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Gossner, Martin M.

2016-01-01

Forest management could potentially affect organisms in all forest habitats. However, aquatic communities in water-filled tree-holes may be especially sensitive because of small population sizes, the risk of drought and potential dispersal limitation. We set up artificial tree holes in forest stands subject to different management intensities in two regions in Germany and assessed the influence of local environmental properties (tree-hole opening type, tree diameter, water volume and water temperature) as well as regional drivers (forest management intensity, tree-hole density) on tree-hole insect communities (not considering other organisms such as nematodes or rotifers), detritus content, oxygen and nutrient concentrations. In addition, we compared data from artificial tree holes with data from natural tree holes in the same area to evaluate the methodological approach of using tree-hole analogues. We found that forest management had strong effects on communities in artificial tree holes in both regions and across the season. Abundance and species richness declined, community composition shifted and detritus content declined with increasing forest management intensity. Environmental variables, such as tree-hole density and tree diameter partly explained these changes. However, dispersal limitation, indicated by effects of tree-hole density, generally showed rather weak impacts on communities. Artificial tree holes had higher water temperatures (on average 2°C higher) and oxygen concentrations (on average 25% higher) than natural tree holes. The abundance of organisms was higher but species richness was lower in artificial tree holes. Community composition differed between artificial and natural tree holes. Negative management effects were detectable in both tree-hole systems, despite their abiotic and biotic differences. Our results indicate that forest management has substantial and pervasive effects on tree-hole communities and may alter their structure and functioning. We furthermore conclude that artificial tree-hole analogues represent a useful experimental alternative to test effects of changes in forest management on natural communities. PMID:27187741

Trees in the Landscape.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Richard; Forbatha, Ann

1982-01-01

Strategies for using trees in classroom instruction are provided. Includes: (1) activities (such as tree identification, mapping, measuring tree height/width); (2) list of asthetic, architectural, engineering, climate, and wildlife functions of trees; (3) tree discussion questions; and (4) references. (JN)

Tree-mediated methane emissions from tropical and temperate peatlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pangala, S. R.; Gauci, V.; Hornibrook, E. R. C.; Gowing, D. J.

2012-04-01

Methane production and transport processes in peatlands are fairly well understood, but growing evidence for emission of methane through trees has highlighted the need to revisit methane transport processes. In wetland trees, morphological adaptations such as development of hypertrophied lenticels, aerenchyma and adventitious roots in response to soil anoxia mediates gas transport, transporting both oxygen from the atmosphere to oxygen-deprived roots and soil-produced methane from the root-zone to the atmosphere. Although, tree-mediated methane emissions from temperate tree species have been confirmed, methane emissions from tropical tree species and processes that control tree-mediated methane emissions remain unclear. This study explains the role of trees in transporting soil-produced methane to the atmosphere and uncovers the principal mechanisms of tree-mediated methane emissions. Methane emissions from eight tropical tree species and two temperate tree species were studied in situ. The mechanisms and controls on tree-mediated methane emissions were investigated using three year old common alder (Alnus glutinosa; 50 trees) grown under two artificially controlled water-table positions. Methane fluxes from whole mesocosms, the soil surface and tree stems were measured using static closed chambers. Both temperate and tropical tree species released significant quantities of methane, with tropical trees dominating ecosystem level methane fluxes. In temperate peatlands, both the methane gas transport mechanism and quantity of methane emitted from stems is tree-species dependent. In Alnus glutinosa, no correlations were observed between stomatal behaviour and tree-mediated methane emissions, however, stem methane emissions were positively correlated with both stem lenticel density and dissolved soil methane concentration. In Alnus glutinosa, no emissions were observed from leaf surfaces. The results demonstrate that exclusion of tree-mediated methane emissions from flux measurement campaigns in forested peatlands will lead to an underestimation of ecosystem-wide methane emissions.

The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

PubMed Central

Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

2015-01-01

This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

Effects of open-top chambers on 'Valencia' orange trees

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olszyk, D.M.; Takemoto, B.K.; Kats, G.

1992-01-01

Young 'Valencia' orange trees (Citrus sinensis(L) Osbeck) were grown for four years in large open-top chambers with ambient (nonfiltered) air or in outside air to determine any effects of the chambers on the air pollutant susceptibility of the trees. Long-term ozone average concentrations (12 hours, growing season) were 8% lower, and cumulative ozone dose (hourly values >0.1 microL/L) was 29% lower in ambient chambers compared to outside air. Fruit yields were much higher (>39%) for ambient chamber trees than for outside trees over three harvests, due at least partly to less fruit drop during the growing season for ambient chambermore » trees. Ambient chamber trees were much larger than outside trees and produced over twice as much leaf material over four years of study. Leaves on ambient chamber trees were larger and less dense than on outside trees. Leaves on ambient chamber trees were under more stress than leaves on outside trees during summer months; with lower stomatal conductances (14% average) and transpiration rates (12%), and more negative leaf water pressure potentials (28%). In contrast, leaves on ambient chamber trees had higher net photosynthetic rates (13%) and higher leaf starch concentrations prior to tree flowering (31%), than leaves on outside trees. While these results indicated large long-term impacts on tree growth which must be considered when using open-top chambers, they did not indicate any net effect of chambers on the air pollutant susceptibility of trees which would limit the usefulness of chamber tree data for air quality impact assessment purposes.« less

Size Matters a Lot: Drought-Affected Italian Oaks Are Smaller and Show Lower Growth Prior to Tree Death.

PubMed

Colangelo, Michele; Camarero, Jesús J; Borghetti, Marco; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Ripullone, Francesco

2017-01-01

Hydraulic theory suggests that tall trees are at greater risk of drought-triggered death caused by hydraulic failure than small trees. In addition the drop in growth, observed in several tree species prior to death, is often interpreted as an early-warning signal of impending death. We test these hypotheses by comparing size, growth, and wood-anatomy patterns of living and now-dead trees in two Italian oak forests showing recent mortality episodes. The mortality probability of trees is modeled as a function of recent growth and tree size. Drift-diffusion-jump (DDJ) metrics are used to detect early-warning signals. We found that the tallest trees of the anisohydric Italian oak better survived drought contrary to what was predicted by the theory. Dead trees were characterized by a lower height and radial-growth trend than living trees in both study sites. The growth reduction of now-dead trees started about 10 years prior to their death and after two severe spring droughts during the early 2000s. This critical transition in growth was detected by DDJ metrics in the most affected site. Dead trees were also more sensitive to drought stress in this site indicating different susceptibility to water shortage between trees. Dead trees did not form earlywood vessels with smaller lumen diameter than surviving trees but tended to form wider latewood vessels with a higher percentage of vessel area. Since living and dead trees showed similar competition we did not expect that moderate thinning and a reduction in tree density would increase the short-term survival probability of trees.

Stand conditions and tree characteristics affect quality of longleaf pine for red-cockaded woodpecker cavity trees

Treesearch

W.G. Ross; D.L. Kulhavy; R.N. Conner

1997-01-01

We measured resin flow of longleaf (Pinus palustris Mill.) pines in red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis Vieillot) clusters in the Angelina National Forest in Texas, and the Apalachicola National Forest in Florida. Sample trees were categorized as active cavity trees, inactive cavity trees and control trees. Sample trees were further...