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Sample records for heavy precipitation simulation

  1. COAMPS Application to Dispersion Scavenging Problem: Heavy Precipitation Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H; Cederwall, R

    2004-05-05

    Precipitation scavenging can effectively remove particulates from the atmosphere. Therefore, this process is of importance in the real-time modeling of atmospheric transport for hazardous materials. To account for the rainfall effect in LLNL operational dispersion model, a modified version of a standard below-cloud aerosol scavenging model has been developed to handle the emergency response in this scenario (Loosmore and Cerdewall, 2003, hereafter referred to as LC). Two types of rain data can be used to incorporate precipitation scavenging in the dispersion model; realtime measurements (rain gauge and radar), and model prediction. The former approach has been adopted in LC's study for the below-cloud scavenging problem based on the surface rain measurements. However, the in-cloud scavenging effect remains unresolved as a restriction of available real-time measurements in providing the vertical structure of precipitation systems. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility to incorporate three-dimensional precipitation structure of forecast data into the dispersion model. Therefore, both in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging effects can be included in LLNL aerosol scavenging model. To this end, a mesoscale model (Naval Research Laboratory 3-D weather forecast model, COAMPS) is used to demonstrate this application using a mid-west severe storm case occurring on July 18, 1997.

  2. Regional variability of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation and the synoptic characteristics of heavy precipitation events in present and future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeAngelis, Anthony M.

    Changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in response to global warming may have serious impacts on human life and property. An analysis of precipitation in climate models is performed to evaluate how well the models simulate the present climate and how precipitation may change in the future. Models participating in phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) have substantial biases in their simulation of heavy precipitation intensity over parts of North America during the 20th century. Despite these biases, the large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying heavy precipitation is either simulated realistically or the strength of the circulation is overestimated. The biases are not related to the large-scale flow in a simple way, pointing toward the importance of other model deficiencies, such as coarse horizontal resolution and convective parameterizations, for the accurate simulation of intense precipitation. Although the models may not sufficiently simulate the intensity of precipitation, their realistic portrayal of the large-scale circulation suggests that projections of future precipitation may be reliable. In the CMIP5 ensemble, the distribution of daily precipitation is projected to undergo substantial changes in response to future atmospheric warming. The regional distribution of these changes was investigated, revealing that dry days and days with heavy-extreme precipitation are projected to increase at the expense of light-moderate precipitation over much of the middle and low latitudes. Such projections have serious implications for future impacts from flood and drought events. In other places, changes in the daily precipitation distribution are characterized by a shift toward either wetter or drier conditions in the future, with heavy-extreme precipitation projected to increase in all but the driest subtropical subsidence regions. Further analysis shows that increases in heavy precipitation in midlatitudes

  3. Atmospheric Rivers Induced Heavy Precipitation and Flooding in the Western U.S. Simulated by the WRF Regional Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2009-02-12

    Twenty years of regional climate simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model for North America has been analyzed to study the influence of the atmospheric rivers and the role of the land surface on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. Compared to observations, the simulation realistically captured the 95th percentile extreme precipitation, mean precipitation intensity, as well as the mean precipitation and temperature anomalies of all the atmospheric river events between 1980-1999. Contrasting the 1986 President Day and 1997 New Year Day atmospheric river events, differences in atmospheric stability are found to have an influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Coastal Range of northern California. Although both cases yield similar amounts of heavy precipitation, the 1997 case was found to produce more runoff compared to the 1986 case. Antecedent soil moisture, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation (which depends on temperature), and existing snowpack all seem to play a role, leading to a higher runoff to precipitation ratio simulated for the 1997 case. This study underscores the importance of characterizing or simulating atmospheric rivers and the land surface conditions for predicting floods, and for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S.

  4. Numerical Simulation and Analysis of the Localized Heavy Precipitation Event in South Korea based on diagnostic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roh, Joon-Woo; Choi, Young-Jean

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of precipitation is one of the most difficult and significant tasks in weather forecasting. Heavy precipitations in the Korean Peninsula are caused by various physical mechanisms, which are affected by shortwave trough, quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, and a direct/indirect effect of tropical cyclone. Many previous studies have used observations, numerical modeling, and statistics to investigate the potential causes of warm-season heavy precipitation in South Korea. Especially, the frequency of warm-season torrential rainfall events more than 30 mm/h precipitation has increased threefold in Seoul, a metropolitan city in South Korea, in recent 30 years. Localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances along the Changma front, or from convective instabilities resulting from unstable air masses. In order to investigate localized heavy precipitation system in Seoul metropolitan area, analysis and numerical experiment were performed for a typical event in 20 June 2014. This case is described to a structure of baroclinic instability associated with a short-wave trough from the northwest and high moist and warm air by a thermal low from the southwest of the Korean Peninsula. We investigated localized heavy precipitation in narrow zone of the Seoul urban area using numerical simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with convective scale. The topography and land use data of the revised U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data and the appropriate set of physical scheme options for WRF model simulation were deliberated. Simulation experiments showed patches of primary physical structures related to the localized heavy precipitation using the diagnostic fields, which are storm relative helicity (SRH), updraft helicity (UH), and instantaneous contraction rates (ICON). SRH and UH are dominantly related to

  5. A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994. Part 2; Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei Kuo; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, W. K.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative

  6. Numerical simulations of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events with the WRF model: A verification exercise using different approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassola, F.; Ferrari, F.; Mazzino, A.

    2015-10-01

    An intercomparison of eight different microphysics parameterization schemes available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and an analysis of the sensitivity of predicted precipitation to horizontal resolution are presented in this paper. Three different case studies, corresponding to severe rainfall events occurred over the Liguria region (Italy) between October 2010 and November 2011, have been considered. In all the selected cases, the formation of a quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system over the Ligurian Sea interacting with local dynamical effects (orographically-induced low-level wind and temperature gradients) played a crucial role in the generation of severe precipitations. The data set used to evaluate model performances has been extracted from the official regional network, composed of about 150 professional WMO-compliant stations. Two different strategies have been exploited to assess the model skill in forecasting precipitation: a traditional approach, where forecasts and observations are matched on a point-by-point basis, and an object-based method where model success is based on the correct localization and intensity of precipitation patterns. This last method overcomes the known fictitious models performance degradation for increasing spatial resolution. As remarkable results of this analysis, a clear role of horizontal resolution on the model performances accompanied by the identification of a set of best-performing parameterization schemes emerge. The outcomes presented here offer important suggestions for operational weather prediction systems under potentially dangerous heavy precipitations triggered by the mechanisms discussed throughout the paper.

  7. Assessment of the extremity of heavy precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smidova, Jana; Müller, Miloslav

    2013-04-01

    Considering all natural disasters occurring on the Czech territory, heavy precipitation and associated flooding pose the greatest direct risk. To explain the causes and development of flood events, it is important to analyze the occurrence of intense precipitation in the past. A frequently used method of evaluation of heavy precipitation which is based only on rainfall intensity, total rainfall depth or duration of the events does not enable to compare precipitation events in terms of their spatiotemporal extremity. The methods presented in the paper introduce spatial and temporal dimensions in the assessment of the extremity of heavy precipitation, which allows, among other things, to specify the predominant character of precipitation. This study investigates the dependencies between temporal and spatial variability of heavy precipitation and their extremeness. Selected cases of heavy precipitation observed in the upper Elbe basin to the gauging station Němčice, Czech Republic, in the second half of the 20th century, are studied. SAD (severity-area-duration) curves and severity diagrams are developed for each precipitation event. These figures show a continuous view on the territory in which precipitation was concentrated during specific time interval. Methods in the evaluation of extremity precipitation events are based from the return period precipitation amounts measured in stations. The events are further characterized by the size of the area and rainfall duration. One-day to six-day return periods of precipitation are always confronted. Applied methods allow comparing precipitation events not only in terms of extremity (return period precipitation) but also their temporal and spatial distribution. They show that the heavy precipitation concentrated over a large area, or conversely affected only a small area. Temporal scales are taken into account in the analysis of extremity of heavy precipitation and duration time of heavy precipitation is also displayed

  8. High-resolution simulations of heavy precipitation events: role of the Adriatic SST and air-sea interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davolio, Silvio; Stocchi, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Strong Bora and Sirocco winds over the Adriatic Sea favour intense air-sea interactions and are often associated with heavy rainfall that affects the mountainous areas surrounding the basin. A convection-permitting model (MOLOCH) has been implemented at high resolution (2 km) in order to analyse several precipitation events over northern Italy, occurred during different seasons of the year and presenting different rainfall characteristics (stratiform, convective, orographic), and to possibly identify the relevant physical mechanisms involved. With the aim of assessing the impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface fluxes on the intensity and location of the rainfall, sensitivity experiments have been performed taking into account the possible variability of SST analysis for model initialization. The model has been validated and specific diagnostic tools have been developed and applied to evaluate the vertically integrated moisture fluxes feeding the precipitating system or to compute a water balance in the atmosphere over the sea. The results show that the Adriatic Sea plays a role in determining the boundary layer characteristics through exchange of heat and moisture thus modifying the low-level flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography. This in turn impacts on the rainfall. Although the results vary among the analysed events, the precise definition of the SST and its evolution can be relevant for accurate precipitation forecasting.

  9. Variability in heavy precipitation over southern Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shein, K. A.

    2009-12-01

    Southern Florida is home to the unique Everglades ecosystem that feeds into the Florida Bay. Heavy precipitation events, either over the Everglades or the Bay can introduce pollutants and excessive fresh water into the bay, while prolonged drought reduces water levels in the wetlands and can contribute to hypersalinity events in the bay. Systematic changes in precipitation frequency and intensity can result in long-term negative impacts to these southern Florida ecosystems. This paper examines the historical in situ record of precipitation over southern Florida, with special emphasis on evaluating the behavior of heavy precipitation events and periods of deficit.

  10. Impact of precipitating ice on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event with advanced research WRF using two bulk microphysical schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efstathiou, G. A.; Zoumakis, N. M.; Melas, D.; Kassomenos, P.

    2012-11-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.2 is used to examine the impact of precipitating ice and especially snow-graupel partitioning in the simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Chalkidiki peninsula in Northern Greece. This major precipitation event, associated with a case of cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea, occurred on the 8th of October 2006 causing severe flooding and damage. Two widely used microphysical parameterizations, the Purdue Lin (PLIN) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6) are compared with available raingauge measurements over the complex topography of Chalkidiki. To further investigate the importance of snow and graupel relative mass content and the treatment of precipitating ice sedimentation velocity, two older versions of the WSM6 scheme were compiled and run with the current model. The verification results indicate that all simulations were found to match raingauge data more closely over the eastern mountainous Chalkidiki peninsula where maximum accumulations were observed. In other stations all schemes overestimate 24h accumulated rainfall except a station situated at the western part of the peninsula, where none of the simulations was able to reproduce observed rainfall. Graupel dominance in PLIN generates rapid precipitation fallout at the point of maximum predicted 24h accumulation. Similar behavior is shown in WSM6 from WRF version 2, but with significant less rainfall. Increasing snow amounts aloft, due to the unified treatment of precipitating ice in WSM6 from WRF version 3, modifies rain dynamics which decrease rainfall rates, but increases 24h accumulations. A sensitivity experiment where PLIN is used with snow accretion by graupel turned off, indicated that this process seems to be the most important factor controlling the differences in surface precipitation between PLIN and WSM6 from WRF version 3, determining the spatial and temporal distribution of this heavy precipitation event. The

  11. Using NORAPS for forecasting heavy precipitation with topographic forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, J.; Leach, M.J.

    1997-02-01

    Heavy precipitation events, associated with winter storm systems, frequently produce devastating flooding throughout the state of California. One of the most disastrous floods in recent years occurred in March of 1995. A storm moved through California from March 7 to 11, 1995 causing flooding in a total of 57 counties in California. the storm moved to the northwest coast of California on March 7 and started producing heavy rainfall on March 8 in northern California. Then the storm moved southward and continuously produced heavy rain as it moved through California. On March 9, a maximum of 177 mm precipitation fell in northern California and brought a maximum of 140 mm precipitation to that area on March 10. In addition to the heavy rain, heavy snow fell in the higher elevations, with snow depths exceeding 12 meters in some locations in the Sierra Nevada mountains, reported by late March. Although such storms have been a research subject for many years, some features of the California storms, such as slow movement, the mesoscale structure and orographic effects on the storm movement and structure are not well understood. Consequently, storms such as the March 1995 event, are often not well predicted. The purpose of this study is to try to improve our understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms that produce the mesoscale structure and storm movement throughout the state. A greater understanding of the physical interactions un these storms will ultimately lead to improved precipitation forecasts, including both the spatial and temporal distribution. Improved forecasts benefit society by reducing threat to life and property and to improved water resource management. We have chosen the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) to simulate the storms and study the dynamics and physics of these storm systems.

  12. Heavy winter precipitation in southwest Arizona

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guttman, Nathaniel B.; Lee, Jung Jin; Wallis, James R.

    During December 1992, according to the Weekly Climate Bulletin of the Climate Analysis Center in Washington, D.C., heavy precipitation inundated parts of Arizona causing more than 400% of normal precipitation to fall in the southwestern part of the state. Heavy precipitation continued to fall during the next 2 months, causing extensive flooding along the Gila River.Phoenix Weather Service Forecast Office monthly storm data reports indicated flooding along the Santa Cruz and San Pedro Rivers on December 29. From January 7 to 20, roads, bridges, homes, businesses, and farmland suffered considerable flood damage from Graham County westward to Yuma County as rivers and streams swelled. Several thousand people were isolated in their homes as flood waters cut off roads. The January storm data report shows that the combination of a northward-displaced subtropical jet stream, with its abundant moisture supply and associated low pressure disturbances and a southward-displaced polar jet stream, with its storm track, led to the abnormally wet period from late December to mid-January. In February, severe flooding was reported in several areas as water rose in the Painted Rock Reservoir; water accumulating behind the dam produced the largest lake in the state. After exceeding the 2.5 million acre-feet capacity of the reservoir, water began spilling over the dam and damaging homes, crops, farmland, roads, and bridges. About 3,500 residents were evacuated, and the National Guard responded to the flooding with various relief efforts including helicopter support operations. The U.S. and Arizona Departments of Agriculture reported flood damage in excess of $50 million.

  13. Skill assessment of precipitation nowcasting in Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Very short-term precipitation forecasting (i.e nowcasting) systems may provide valuable support in the weather surveillance process as they allow to issue automated early warnings for heavy precipitation events (HPE) as reviewed recently by Pierce et al. (2012). The need for warnings is essential in densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean coastal areas, prone to flash-floods. Several HPEs that occurred in NE Spain are analyzed using a nowcasting system based on the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011). Radar-based nowcasts, with lead times up to 3 h, are verified here against quality-controlled weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates and also against a dense network of raingauges. The basic questions studied are the dependence of forecast quality with lead time and rainfall amounts in several high-impact HPEs such as the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) - both cases had intense rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and daily values above 100 mm. Verification scores indicated that forecasts of 30' precipitation amounts provided useful guidance for lead times up to 60' for moderate intensities (up to 1 mm in 30') and up to 2.5h for lower rates (above 0.1 mm). On the other hand correlations of radar estimates and forecasts exceeded Eulerian persistence of precipitation estimates for lead times of 1.5 h for moderate intensities (up to 0.8 mm/h). We complete the analysis with a discussion on the reliability of threshold to lead time dependence based on the event-to-event variability found. This work has been done in the framework of the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M

  14. Conditional simulations for fields of extreme precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bechler, Aurélien; Vrac, Mathieu; Bel, Liliane

    2014-05-01

    Many environmental models, such as hydrological models, require input data, e.g. precipitation values, correctly simulated and distributed, even at locations where no observation is available. This is particularly true for extreme events that may be of high importance for impact studies. The last decade has seen max-stable processes emerge as a powerful tool for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. Recently, such processes have been used in climate context to perform simulations at ungauged sites based on empirical distributions of a spatial field conditioned by observed values in some locations. In this work conditional simulations of extremal t process are investigated, taking benefits of its spectral construction. The methodology of conditional simulations proposed by Dombry et al. [2013] for Brown-Resnick and Schlather models is adapted for the extremal t process with some improvements which enlarge the possible number of conditional points. A simulation study enables to highlight the role of the different parameters of the model and to emphasize the importance of the steps of the algorithm. In this work, we focus on the French Mediterranean basin, which is a key spot of occurrences of meteorological extremes such as heavy precipitation. Indeed, major extreme precipitation are regularly observed in this region near the 'cévenol" mountains. The modeling and the understanding of these extreme precipitation - the so-called 'cévenol events" - are of major importance for hydrological studies in this complex terrain since they often trigger major floods in this region. The application of our methodology on real data in this region shows that the model and the algorithm perform well provided the stationary assumptions are fulfilled.

  15. Understanding Oceanic Heavy Precipitation Using Scatterometer, Satellite Precipitation, and Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garg, Piyush; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Lang, Timothy J.; Chronis, Themis

    2016-01-01

    The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.

  16. The Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Heavy Precipitation in Seoul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K. S.; Yu, J.; Im, J.; Jin, R.

    2014-12-01

    1.Introduction Combined with summer heavy rainfall and urbanization today's urban area face higher frequency of heavy rainfall with higher intensity in summer than before. Heavy rainfall in short time makes it low elevation area to be susceptible to more flooding than before. According to KMA it is announced as heavy rainfall warning whose precipitation amount is equal to or greater than 150mm per 12 hours. And sometimes, these rainfall events bring out severe disasters such as the case of flooding in Gangnam Station, Daechi Station and landslides which resulted in 20 person death in downtown Seoul on July 27th, 2011. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of heavy precipitation in Seoul. Ultimately it aims to contribute these results to the proper urban planning and management. 2. Materials and Methods In this study, the digital topograhic data and weather data in Seoul Metropolitan Area were used to figure out the spatial distribution of summer heavy rainfall. The precipitation data in summer (June to Sep.) season were used to detect the recent changes of temporal and spatial features from 1995 to 2014 (20 years) using Automatic Weather tation (AWS) data in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The precipitation amount in summer during the past 20 years has been on the rise but rainy days have barely changed,which reveals the daily precipitation intensity has increased. After deriving the characteristic of heavy rainfall, the relationship among precipitation, topography and land uses were interpreted and discussed. This study is to investigate the characteristics of flood prone area by focusing topographic and land use characteristics. Ultimately it contributes to prepare the guideline for flood preventive urban plannig.

  17. Modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation by regional approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaal, L.; Kysely, J.

    2009-09-01

    the size of the region is linked with a built-in test on regional homogeneity of data. Once a pooling group is delineated, weights based on a dissimilarity measure are assigned to individual sites involved in a pooling group, and all (weighted) data are employed in the estimation of model parameters and high quantiles at a given location. The ROI method is compared with the Hosking-Wallis (HW) regional frequency analysis, which is based on delineating fixed regions (instead of flexible pooling groups) and assigning unit weights to all sites in a region. The comparison of the performance of the individual regional models makes use of data on annual maxima of 1-day precipitation amounts at 209 stations covering the Czech Republic, with altitudes ranging from 150 to 1490 m a.s.l. We conclude that the ROI methodology is superior to the HW analysis, particularly for very high quantiles (100-yr return values). Another advantage of the ROI approach is that subjective decisions - unavoidable when fixed regions in the HW analysis are formed - may efficiently be suppressed, and almost all settings of the ROI method may be justified by results of the simulation experiments. The differences between (any) regional method and single-site analysis are very pronounced and suggest that the at-site estimation is highly unreliable. The ROI method is then applied to estimate high quantiles of precipitation amounts at individual sites. The estimates and their uncertainty are compared with those from a single-site analysis. We focus on the eastern part of the Czech Republic, i.e. an area with complex orography and a particularly pronounced role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes. The design values are compared with precipitation amounts recorded during the recent heavy precipitation events, including the one associated with the flash flood on June 24, 2009. We also show that the ROI methodology may easily be transferred to the analysis of precipitation extremes

  18. Mars heavy ion precipitating flux as measured by MAVEN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leblanc, F.

    2015-12-01

    Mars' atmospheric escape induced by heavy planetary ions accelerated by the solar wind and reimpacting Mars' atmosphere has been suggested to occur. The sputtering of Mars' atmosphere has been even suggested to lead to a significant cumulated loss along Mars' history. Up to now, only a limited number of observations have been possible. ASPERA-3/Mars Express observed such precipitation only during extreme solar conditions events suggesting that sputtering might be not as intense as theoretically predicted. Based on MAVEN first six months of observations, we here show that precipitation of heavy ions also occur during quiet solar conditions and that the average precipitating flux during this period is significant and globally in good agreement with predictions. From these measured precipitating flux, we propose a first estimate of the atmospheric escape induced by sputtering. Up to 8.8×105 O/cm2/s was lost by Mars' atmosphere between November 2014 and April 2015.

  19. Statistical Significance of the Trends in Monthly Heavy Precipitation Over the US

    SciTech Connect

    Mahajan, Salil; North, Dr. Gerald R.; Saravanan, Dr. R.; Genton, Dr. Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall's {tau} test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.

  20. Waste and Simulant Precipitation Issues

    SciTech Connect

    Steele, W.V.

    2000-11-29

    As Savannah River Site (SRS) personnel have studied methods of preparing high-level waste for vitrification in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), questions have arisen with regard to the formation of insoluble waste precipitates at inopportune times. One option for decontamination of the SRS waste streams employs the use of an engineered form of crystalline silicotitanate (CST). Testing of the process during FY 1999 identified problems associated with the formation of precipitates during cesium sorption tests using CST. These precipitates may, under some circumstances, obstruct the pores of the CST particles and, hence, interfere with the sorption process. In addition, earlier results from the DWPF recycle stream compatibility testing have shown that leaching occurs from the CST when it is stored at 80 C in a high-pH environment. Evidence was established that some level of components of the CST, such as silica, was leached from the CST. This report describes the results of equilibrium modeling and precipitation studies associated with the overall stability of the waste streams, CST component leaching, and the presence of minor components in the waste streams.

  1. Modelling probabilities of heavy precipitation by regional approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaal, L.; Kysely, J.

    2009-09-01

    the size of the region is linked with a built-in test on regional homogeneity of data. Once a pooling group is delineated, weights based on a dissimilarity measure are assigned to individual sites involved in a pooling group, and all (weighted) data are employed in the estimation of model parameters and high quantiles at a given location. The ROI method is compared with the Hosking-Wallis (HW) regional frequency analysis, which is based on delineating fixed regions (instead of flexible pooling groups) and assigning unit weights to all sites in a region. The comparison of the performance of the individual regional models makes use of data on annual maxima of 1-day precipitation amounts at 209 stations covering the Czech Republic, with altitudes ranging from 150 to 1490 m a.s.l. We conclude that the ROI methodology is superior to the HW analysis, particularly for very high quantiles (100-yr return values). Another advantage of the ROI approach is that subjective decisions - unavoidable when fixed regions in the HW analysis are formed - may efficiently be suppressed, and almost all settings of the ROI method may be justified by results of the simulation experiments. The differences between (any) regional method and single-site analysis are very pronounced and suggest that the at-site estimation is highly unreliable. The ROI method is then applied to estimate high quantiles of precipitation amounts at individual sites. The estimates and their uncertainty are compared with those from a single-site analysis. We focus on the eastern part of the Czech Republic, i.e. an area with complex orography and a particularly pronounced role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes. The design values are compared with precipitation amounts recorded during the recent heavy precipitation events, including the one associated with the flash flood on June 24, 2009. We also show that the ROI methodology may easily be transferred to the analysis of precipitation extremes

  2. Recent changes in heavy precipitation occurrences along the east coast of the Indochina Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fukutomi, Y.; Wu, P.; Matsumoto, J.

    2013-12-01

    Long-term changes of the frequency of heavy precipitation occurrence along the east coast of the Indochina Peninsula were analyzed using daily data from six Vietnamese meteorological stations for the period September--November of 1961--2010. The heavy precipitation days were defined by the 50 and 100 mm/day threshold values. The frequency of the coastal heavy precipitation days were decomposed into tropical cyclone (TC)-induced heavy precipitation days and non-TC heavy precipitation days, and their contribution to recent increase in the coastal precipitation was examined. Over the 50-yr period, heavy precipitation occurrence indices show a significant increasing trend that is linked to an increasing trend in seasonal amount of the coastal precipitation. A rapid increase in the coastal heavy precipitation days was found from the 1990s through the 2000s. This marked increase is basically due to non-TC heavy precipitation events, suggesting that TC passages do not play a role in the recent increase in the seasonal precipitation amount and the heavy precipitation events. A role of tropical synoptic-scale disturbances (TSDs) as non-developing disturbances for TC formation in the non-TC heavy precipitation events was also explored. About 70% of the non-TC heavy precipitation events are associated with TSDs originated from the western North Pacific--South China Sea region. TSD passages are responsible for the recent increase in non-TC heavy precipitation events.

  3. Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry events to heavy rainfalls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vrac, M.; Naveau, P.

    2007-07-01

    Downscaling precipitation is a difficult challenge for the climate community. We propose and study a new stochastic weather typing approach to perform such a task. In addition to providing accurate small and medium precipitation, our procedure possesses built-in features that allow us to model adequately extreme precipitation distributions. First, we propose a new distribution for local precipitation via a probability mixture model of Gamma and Generalized Pareto (GP) distributions. The latter one stems from Extreme Value Theory (EVT). The performance of this mixture is tested on real and simulated data, and also compared to classical rainfall densities. Then our downscaling method, extending the recently developed nonhomogeneous stochastic weather typing approach, is presented. It can be summarized as a three-step program. First, regional weather precipitation patterns are constructed through a hierarchical ascending clustering method. Second, daily transitions among our precipitation patterns are represented by a nonhomogeneous Markov model influenced by large-scale atmospheric variables like NCEP reanalyses. Third, conditionally on these regional patterns, precipitation occurrence and intensity distributions are modeled as statistical mixtures. Precipitation amplitudes are assumed to follow our mixture of Gamma and GP densities. The proposed downscaling approach is applied to 37 weather stations in Illinois and compared to various possible parameterizations and to a direct modeling. Model selection procedures show that choosing one GP distribution shape parameter per pattern for all stations provides the best rainfall representation amongst all tested models. This work highlights the importance of EVT distributions to improve the modeling and downscaling of local extreme precipitations.

  4. Sensitivity to Madden-Julian Oscillation variations on heavy precipitation over the contiguous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Charles; Carvalho, Leila M. V.

    2014-10-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent mode of tropical intraseasonal variability in the climate system and has worldwide influences on the occurrences and forecasts of heavy precipitation. This paper investigates the sensitivity of precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS) in a case study (boreal 2004-05 winter). Several major storms affected the western and eastern CONUS producing substantial economic and social impacts including loss of lives. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to perform experiments to test the significance of the MJO amplitude. The control simulation uses the MJO amplitude observed by reanalysis, whereas the amplitude is modified in perturbation experiments. WRF realistically simulates the precipitation variability over the CONUS, although large biases occur over the Western and Midwest United States. Daily precipitation is aggregated in western, central and eastern sectors and the frequency distribution is analyzed. Increases in MJO amplitude produce moderate increases in the median and interquartile range and large and robust increases in extreme (90th and 95th percentiles) precipitation. The MJO amplitude clearly affects the transport of moisture from the tropical Pacific and Gulf of Mexico into North America providing moist rich air masses and the dynamical forcing that contributes to heavy precipitation.

  5. Intercomparison of precipitation extremes over southern Africa in CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinto, Izidine; Lennard, Chris; Hewitson, Bruce

    2013-04-01

    Climate and weather extreme events can have powerful impacts on human society and infrastructures as well as ecosystems and wildlife. The ability of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to capture patterns of extreme rainfall over Africa south of 10 degree S in their control simulations is assessed. Extreme rainfall are expressed in terms of 10-year return values that are estimated by fitting the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to maximum summer (October-March) daily precipitation. For the control simulation the performance of the ensemble mean and individual RCM in simulating precipitation extreme are compared to a daily combined gauge and satellite products from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and daily precipitation from ERA-Interim Reanalysis. The results shows that most of the RCMs reproduce the 10-year return values with varying magnitude. However, they show a coherence spatial distribution of precipitation extreme. Precipitation minimum occur to the very dry region to the west of southern Africa whereas the maximum occur to the east of the region, except in the CCLM model where the maximum occur mostly over the continent. The most heavy precipitation events, up to 100 mm/day, estimated from seven models (CCLM4.8, ARPEGE, REMO, RCA35, PRECIS, WRF3.1.1 and CRCM5) are localized mainly over Mozambique and Mozambique Chanel (MC). This can primarily be attributed to a finer representation of mesoscale orographic features as well as tropical cyclones in the RCM compared to an coarse resolved GCM. The multi-model average substantially reduces large deviations of the individual members of the ensemble from the GPCP data.

  6. On the internal variability of simulated precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schindler, Anne; Toreti, Andrea; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Zampieri, Matteo; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2014-05-01

    Adequate knowledge of expected changes in precipitation is needed for planning as well as for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Potential changes in precipitation can be assessed by using climate model simulations under different scenarios. Yet the climate change signal can be obfuscated by natural variability. Here, we propose an approach that can be used in the attribution of the identified changes. By using long pre-industrial control sim- ulations (in this exercise, a 330-year run of the CMCC Global Circulation Model) we can determine the shortest record length such that randomly chosen time periods of the same length cannot be statistically distinguished from each other. In the context of climate change assessment, this implies that any change simulated over a period of this length could be attributed to a change in forcing and not to natural variability. For each land grid point, the empirical distribution over a given time period is compared with that of 99 (randomly chosen) periods of the same length. Should the Cramer-von Mises two sample test be unable to reject the hypoth- esis that the samples stem from the same distribution, then the periods are deemed statistically indistinguishable. Multiple testing is accounted for with the Walker test at the 5 % level. To also test for regional significance, we calculate the Benjamini- Hochberg false-discovery-rate for the 26 IPCC SREX regions. To avoid extra variability due to the seasonal cycle, we analyze July-August (JJA) and December-February (DJF) precipitation separately. We show that this minimum duration length depends on the season, the location and the extent of the region under investigation. For instance, in case of northern hemispheric DJF precipitation, at least 36 seasons are necessary; whereas for southern hemispheric JJA precipitation, the minimum duration length is equal to 12 seasons. For many land grid points 30 seasons (DJF or JJA) suffice. However, there exists regions (especially

  7. Simulating multimodal seasonality in extreme daily precipitation occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tye, Mari R.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Stephenson, David B.; Kilsby, Christopher G.

    2016-06-01

    Floods pose multi-dimensional hazards to critical infrastructure and society and these hazards may increase under climate change. While flood conditions are dependent on catchment type and soil conditions, seasonal precipitation extremes also play an important role. The extreme precipitation events driving flood occurrence may arrive non-uniformly in time. In addition, their seasonal and inter-annual patterns may also cause sequences of several events and enhance likely flood responses. Spatial and temporal patterns of extreme daily precipitation occurrence are characterized across the UK. Extreme and very heavy daily precipitation is not uniformly distributed throughout the year, but exhibits spatial differences, arising from the relative proximity to the North Atlantic Ocean or North Sea. Periods of weeks or months are identified during which extreme daily precipitation occurrences are most likely to occur, with some regions of the UK displaying multimodal seasonality. A Generalized Additive Model is employed to simulate extreme daily precipitation occurrences over the UK from 1901 to 2010 and to allow robust statistical testing of temporal changes in the seasonal distribution. Simulations show that seasonality has the strongest correlation with intra-annual variations in extreme event occurrence, while Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) have the strongest correlation with inter-annual variations. The north and west of the UK are dominated by MSLP in the mid-North Atlantic and the south and east are dominated by local SST. All regions now have a higher likelihood of autumnal extreme daily precipitation than earlier in the twentieth century. This equates to extreme daily precipitation occurring earlier in the autumn in the north and west, and later in the autumn in the south and east. The change in timing is accompanied by increases in the probability of extreme daily precipitation occurrences during the autumn, and in the number of

  8. Analysis of changes in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele

    2016-08-01

    Auc(bstract) Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation, and to examine its seasonality. Analyses are based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily precipitation data from 1948 to 2012. We use a block maxima approach to identify changes in the magnitude of heavy precipitation and a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach for the changes in the frequency. The results of this study show that there is a stronger signal of change in the frequency rather than in the magnitude of heavy precipitation events. Also, results show an increasing trend in the frequency of heavy precipitation over large areas of the contiguous USA with the most notable exception of the US Northwest. These results indicate that over the last 65 years, the stronger storms are not getting stronger, but a larger number of heavy precipitation events have been observed. The annual maximum precipitation and annual frequency of heavy precipitation reveal a marked seasonality over the contiguous USA. However, we could not find any evidence suggesting shifting in the seasonality of annual maximum precipitation by investigating whether the day of the year at which the maximum precipitation occurs has changed over time. Furthermore, we examine whether the year-to-year variations in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation can be explained in terms of climate variability driven by the influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Our findings indicate that the climate variability of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can exert a large control on the precipitation frequency and magnitude over the contiguous USA. Also, the results indicate that part of the spatial and temporal features of the relationship between climate variability and heavy precipitation magnitude and frequency can be described by one or more of the climate indices considered here.

  9. Carbon precipitation from heavy hydrocarbon fluid in deep planetary interiors.

    PubMed

    Lobanov, Sergey S; Chen, Pei-Nan; Chen, Xiao-Jia; Zha, Chang-Sheng; Litasov, Konstantin D; Mao, Ho-Kwang; Goncharov, Alexander F

    2013-01-01

    The phase diagram of the carbon-hydrogen system is of great importance to planetary sciences, as hydrocarbons comprise a significant part of icy giant planets and are involved in reduced carbon-oxygen-hydrogen fluid in the deep Earth. Here we use resistively- and laser-heated diamond anvil cells to measure methane melting and chemical reactivity up to 80 GPa and 2,000 K. We show that methane melts congruently below 40 GPa. Hydrogen and elementary carbon appear at temperatures of >1,200 K, whereas heavier alkanes and unsaturated hydrocarbons (>24 GPa) form in melts of >1,500 K. The phase composition of carbon-hydrogen fluid evolves towards heavy hydrocarbons at pressures and temperatures representative of Earth's lower mantle. We argue that reduced mantle fluids precipitate diamond upon re-equilibration to lighter species in the upwelling mantle. Likewise, our findings suggest that geophysical models of Uranus and Neptune require reassessment because chemical reactivity of planetary ices is underestimated. PMID:24026399

  10. Carbon precipitation from heavy hydrocarbon fluid in deep planetary interiors.

    PubMed

    Lobanov, Sergey S; Chen, Pei-Nan; Chen, Xiao-Jia; Zha, Chang-Sheng; Litasov, Konstantin D; Mao, Ho-Kwang; Goncharov, Alexander F

    2013-01-01

    The phase diagram of the carbon-hydrogen system is of great importance to planetary sciences, as hydrocarbons comprise a significant part of icy giant planets and are involved in reduced carbon-oxygen-hydrogen fluid in the deep Earth. Here we use resistively- and laser-heated diamond anvil cells to measure methane melting and chemical reactivity up to 80 GPa and 2,000 K. We show that methane melts congruently below 40 GPa. Hydrogen and elementary carbon appear at temperatures of >1,200 K, whereas heavier alkanes and unsaturated hydrocarbons (>24 GPa) form in melts of >1,500 K. The phase composition of carbon-hydrogen fluid evolves towards heavy hydrocarbons at pressures and temperatures representative of Earth's lower mantle. We argue that reduced mantle fluids precipitate diamond upon re-equilibration to lighter species in the upwelling mantle. Likewise, our findings suggest that geophysical models of Uranus and Neptune require reassessment because chemical reactivity of planetary ices is underestimated.

  11. Very-Heavy Precipitation in the Greater New York City Region and Widespread Drought Alleviation Tied to Western US Agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, Travis D.; Felzer, Benjamin S.

    2015-01-01

    Observed intensification of precipitation extremes, responsible for extensive societal impacts, are widely attributed to anthropogenic sources, which may include indirect effects of agricultural irrigation. However quantifying the effects of irrigation on far-downstream climate remains a challenge. We use three paired Community Earth System Model simulations to assess mechanisms of irrigation-induced precipitation trends and extremes in the conterminous US and the effect on the terrestrial carbon sink. Results suggest precipitation enhancement in the central US reduced drought conditions and increased regional carbon uptake, while further downstream, the heaviest precipitation events were more frequent and intense. Specifically, moisture advection from irrigation in the western U.S. and recycling of enhanced local convective precipitation produced very-heavy storm events that were 11% more intense and occurred 23% more frequently in the densely populated greater New York City region. PMID:26642049

  12. Very-Heavy Precipitation in the Greater New York City Region and Widespread Drought Alleviation Tied to Western US Agriculture.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Travis D; Felzer, Benjamin S

    2015-01-01

    Observed intensification of precipitation extremes, responsible for extensive societal impacts, are widely attributed to anthropogenic sources, which may include indirect effects of agricultural irrigation. However quantifying the effects of irrigation on far-downstream climate remains a challenge. We use three paired Community Earth System Model simulations to assess mechanisms of irrigation-induced precipitation trends and extremes in the conterminous US and the effect on the terrestrial carbon sink. Results suggest precipitation enhancement in the central US reduced drought conditions and increased regional carbon uptake, while further downstream, the heaviest precipitation events were more frequent and intense. Specifically, moisture advection from irrigation in the western U.S. and recycling of enhanced local convective precipitation produced very-heavy storm events that were 11% more intense and occurred 23% more frequently in the densely populated greater New York City region.

  13. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G. T.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H. C.

    2015-09-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products using different precipitation computation recipes, is comprehensively evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in a usually-neglected area (northeastern China), and a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products include TRMM3B42, TRMM3B42RT, GLDAS/Noah, APHRODITE, PERSIANN and GSMAP-MVK+. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e., a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and the cloud motion vectors used by GSMAP-MVK+ show huge advantage. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement and future development of satellite-based products (e.g., NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although significant uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models contribute significantly to uncertainty in discharge simulations and a better precipitation product does not guarantee a better discharge simulation because of interactions. It is also found that a good discharge simulation depends on a good coalition of a hydrological model and a precipitation product, suggesting that, although the satellite-based precipitation products are not as accurate as the gauge-based product, they could have better performance in discharge simulations when appropriately combined with hydrological models. This information is revealed for the first time and

  14. Statistical correction of central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Barlow, Mathew; Lyon, Bradfield

    2003-10-01

    Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region's interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea-surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulating interannual precipitation variability in this region. Here, statistical methods of correcting systematic errors in GCM simulations of CSW Asia precipitation are investigated. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify model fields related to observed precipitation anomaly patterns. These relationships are then used to predict observed precipitation anomalies. This approach is applied to the ECHAM 4.5 GCM using regional precipitation, upper-level winds and western Pacific tropical precipitation as predictors of observed CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. The statistical corrections improve the GCM precipitation simulations, resulting in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated skill in simulating CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Applying the procedure to hindcasts with persisted sea-surface temperatures gives lower, but statistically significant, precipitation correlations in the region along the Hindu Kush mountain range.

  15. Final wash precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs

    SciTech Connect

    Marek, J.C.

    1992-05-15

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is scheduled to start non-radioactive process operation in September, 1992. The Cold Chemical Runs will demonstrate acceptable process operation and provide data required to satisfy the Waste Compliance Plan. Five basic sludge simulants will be required for these tests. Two basic precipitate simulants will be needed to operate the Salt Processing Cell with and without mercury in the precipitate feed. Precipitate feed simulant specifications for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs are revised in this report. All previous specifications of precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs (CCRs) are superceded by this document. The revision is needed to (1) eliminate use of hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) in the precipitate process operation, (2) simulate the projected composition of the precipitate feed to DWPF produced by final washing to reduce the nitrite concentration to {le} 0.01M without washing the simulated feed, (3) delete organic trim chemical additions to the precipitate feed and (4) specify an additive to prevent foaming of the precipitate. Two specifications are provided to operate the Salt Processing Cell with mercury (Tests 5&6) and without mercury (Tests 1--4) in the precipitate feed.

  16. Final wash precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs

    SciTech Connect

    Marek, J.C.

    1992-05-15

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is scheduled to start non-radioactive process operation in September, 1992. The Cold Chemical Runs will demonstrate acceptable process operation and provide data required to satisfy the Waste Compliance Plan. Five basic sludge simulants will be required for these tests. Two basic precipitate simulants will be needed to operate the Salt Processing Cell with and without mercury in the precipitate feed. Precipitate feed simulant specifications for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs are revised in this report. All previous specifications of precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs (CCRs) are superceded by this document. The revision is needed to (1) eliminate use of hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) in the precipitate process operation, (2) simulate the projected composition of the precipitate feed to DWPF produced by final washing to reduce the nitrite concentration to [le] 0.01M without washing the simulated feed, (3) delete organic trim chemical additions to the precipitate feed and (4) specify an additive to prevent foaming of the precipitate. Two specifications are provided to operate the Salt Processing Cell with mercury (Tests 5 6) and without mercury (Tests 1--4) in the precipitate feed.

  17. Numerical Study of Urbanization Effect on 2012 Heavy Storm Precipitation in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Liu, S.; Xue, Y.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    In the past few decades, Great Beijing area has experienced rapid and widespread urbanization, which has significantly modified the land surface physical characteristics and affects urban regional climate.A single layer urban canopy module has been developed based on the Community Land Surface Model Urban Module (CLMU) with improvements: the energy balances on the five surface conditions are considered separately: building roof, sun side and shaded side wall, pervious and impervious land surface. A method to calculate sky view factor is developed based on the physically process while most urban models simply provide an empirical value. This method improves the solar and long wave radiation simulation on each surface; a new scheme for calculating the latent heat flux is applied on both wall and impervious land; the anthropogenic heat is considered in terms of industrial production, domestic wastes, vehicles and air condition. The urban effect on summer convective precipitation under the unstable atmospheric condition over Beijing was investigated by simulating a heavy storm event in July 21st 2012. In this storm, precipitation of averagely 164 mm was brought to Beijing within 6 hours, which is the record of past 60 years in the region. Numerical simulating experiment was set up by coupling Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)/SSiB3 model with the Modified CLMU (MCLMU). Several control cases without MCLMU were set up. The horizontal resolution in the inner domains was set to be 2 km. While all of the control results drastically underestimate the urban precipitation, the result of WRF/SSiB3/MCLMU is much closer to the observation. Sensitive experiments show that the existence of large area of impervious surfaces restrain the surface evaporation and latent heat flux in urban while the anthropogenic heat and enhanced sensible heat flux warm up the lower atmospheric layer and strengthen the vertical stratification instability, which is the key factor for storm while

  18. Simulation of a precipitation event in the western United States

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jinwon; Soong, S.T.

    1993-09-01

    Wintertime precipitation is the major water resources in the western United States. Thus correct assessment of the wintertime precipitation is important in planning the summertime water supply and the development of future water resources. Precipitation forecast is also important for early warning of flood. Regional precipitation depends chiefly on the large scale flow and local topography. Large scale moisture influx determines the amount of moisture available for the precipitation. Topography affects two major factors in the local precipitation: Low-level vertical motion and local water vapor transport. Topography also affects partitioning the total precipitation into rain and snow since the snow line is usually lower than the peaks of major mountain ranges during wintertime. Modeling the features of regional precipitation has been intensely studied. Previous studies show that limited area models nested within large scale models or analysis can capture realistic features of storms. As limited area models usually have much finer spatial resolutions than large scale models, parameterized precipitation processes developed for large scale models may not be adequate for limited area models. We present a simulation of twelve-day precipitation over California from Feb. 11 to Feb. 23 1986. We focus on features of precipitation such as the local distribution, total amount, and the occurrence of snowfall and rainfall. The simulation is carried out using a primitive-equation limited-area model.

  19. Dynamical downscaling simulation and future projection of precipitation over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Jiawei; Feng, Jinming; Wang, Yongli

    2015-08-01

    This study assesses present-day and future precipitation changes over China by using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.5.1. The WRF model was driven by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model with the Generalized Ocean Layer Dynamics component (GFDL-ESM2G) output over China at the resolution of 30 km for the present day (1976-2005) and near future (2031-2050) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. The results demonstrate that with improved resolution and better representation of finer-scale physical process, dynamical downscaling adds value to the regional precipitation simulation. WRF downscaling generally simulates more reliable spatial distributions of total precipitation and extreme precipitation in China with higher spatial pattern correlations and closer magnitude. It is able to successfully eliminate the artificial precipitation maximum area simulated by GFDL-ESM2G over the west of the Sichuan Basin, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both summer and winter. Besides, the regional annual cycle and frequencies of precipitation intensity are also well depicted by WRF. In the future projections, under the RCP4.5 scenario, both models project that summer precipitation over most parts of China will increase, especially in western and northern China, and that precipitation over some southern regions is projected to decrease. The projected increase of future extreme precipitation makes great contributions to the total precipitation increase. In southern regions, the projected larger extreme precipitation amounts accompanied with fewer extreme precipitation frequencies suggest that future daily extreme precipitation intensity is likely to increase in these regions.

  20. Evaluation of precipitation over an oceanic region of Japan in convection-permitting regional climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murata, Akihiko; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Kawase, Hiroaki; Nosaka, Masaya

    2016-05-01

    We investigated the performance of a convection-permitting regional climate model with respect to precipitation in the present climate around the southwestern oceanic region of Japan. The effects of explicit representation of convective processes without cumulus parameterization can be properly estimated by using a model domain without complex topography or convoluted coastlines. The amounts of annual and monthly precipitation and the frequencies of daily and hourly precipitation were well reproduced by the convection-permitting model with a 2-km grid spacing, and its performance was better than that of a model with a coarser mesh. In particular, the frequencies of hourly precipitation in the convection-permitting simulation matched the observed frequencies for precipitation intensities below 20 mm h-1. Above intensities of 20 mm h-1, however, the convection-permitting model tended to overestimate the frequency of hourly precipitation. To explore the mechanism of this overestimation of heavy hourly precipitation, the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to the horizontal resolution was tested by changing the horizontal grid spacing of the model from 2 to 4 km and then 1.5 km. The results showed that the overestimation was increased when the horizontal resolution was coarser, owing to spurious grid-scale precipitation, which causes heavy precipitation to be highly concentrated in a single grid. This spurious grid-scale precipitation may be caused by insufficient representation of convective downdrafts in convection-permitting simulations by models with coarser resolutions.

  1. Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klutse, Nana Ama Browne; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaila; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Dosio, Alessandro; Diedhiou, Arona; Kamga, Andre; Lamptey, Benjamin; Ali, Abdou; Gbobaniyi, Emiola O.; Owusu, Kwadwo; Lennard, Christopher; Hewitson, Bruce; Nikulin, Grigory; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen; Büchner, Matthias

    2016-01-01

    We analyze and intercompare the performance of a set of ten regional climate models (RCMs) along with the ensemble mean of their statistics in simulating daily precipitation characteristics during the West African monsoon (WAM) period (June-July-August-September). The experiments are conducted within the framework of the COordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments for the African domain. We find that the RCMs exhibit substantial differences that are associated with a wide range of estimates of higher-order statistics, such as intensity, frequency, and daily extremes mostly driven by the convective scheme employed. For instance, a number of the RCMs simulate a similar number of wet days compared to observations but greater rainfall intensity, especially in oceanic regions adjacent to the Guinea Highlands because of a larger number of heavy precipitation events. Other models exhibit a higher wet-day frequency but much lower rainfall intensity over West Africa due to the occurrence of less frequent heavy rainfall events. This indicates the existence of large uncertainties related to the simulation of daily rainfall characteristics by the RCMs. The ensemble mean of the indices substantially improves the RCMs' simulated frequency and intensity of precipitation events, moderately outperforms that of the 95th percentile, and provides mixed benefits for the dry and wet spells. Although the ensemble mean improved results cannot be generalized, such an approach produces encouraging results and can help, to some extent, to improve the robustness of the response of the WAM daily precipitation to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.

  2. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

    2016-02-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

  3. A Study of Two Heavy Precipitation Events in the North-Eastern Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oprea, C.; Stancalie, Gh; Tiron, G.; Tascu, S.

    2009-04-01

    Two heavy precipitation events that affected the north-eastern part of Romania are here described in terms of meteorological analysis. Synoptic and mesoscale conditions associated with these events are representative of a class of phenomena that produce important effects on the urban and extra-urban areas from this part of the country as a consequence of floods and flash floods. Analyses of these regional meteorological processes that generate flash floods are one of the objectives of the HYDRATE project. Romanian territory is affected by the presence of the Mediterranean Lows that transport moist and warm air from Mediterranean Sea basin. In certain meteorological conditions the Mediterranean Lows moving to East of Europe, get a retrograde movement on the Black Sea and in this way they contribute to the moisture increasing content of the forming convective systems. The retrograded Mediterranean Lows affect primary the north-eastern part of the Romania. Additionally, different mesoscale forcing mechanisms acts to continuously generate convective cells and focus the deep convection over the same region during several hours incrising in this way the flash flood potential. Heavy precipitation events selected for analyses occurred, first of it, on 18-19 August 2005, and the second on the 23-26 July 2008, and resulted in floods and flash floods conducive to human fatalities and important economic and social damages. ECMWF model analysis was used to investigate dynamical forcing and mesoscale numerical simulation using ALADIN model was performed to investigate the mechanism responsible for the convection development. Data from conventional weather station, radar and satellite imagery were used to assess the magnitude of the rain events and to investigate the role of the different mode of convective system organization to the flash floods generation.

  4. Cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the removal of heavy metal mixtures from aqueous solutions.

    PubMed

    Grimshaw, Pengpeng; Calo, Joseph M; Hradil, George

    2011-11-15

    The description and operation of a novel cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the simultaneous removal of mixtures of heavy metals from aqueous solutions are presented. CEP combines the advantages of electrowinning in a spouted particulate electrode (SPE) with that of chemical precipitation and redissolution, to remove heavy metals at low concentrations as solid metal deposits on particulate cathode particles without exporting toxic metal precipitate sludges from the process. The overall result is very large volume reduction of the heavy metal contaminants as a solid metal deposit on particles that can either be safely discarded as such, or further processed to recover particular metals. The performance of this system is demonstrated with data on the removal of mixtures of copper, nickel, and cadmium from aqueous solutions.

  5. Cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the removal of heavy metal mixtures from aqueous solutions

    PubMed Central

    Grimshaw, Pengpeng; Calo, Joseph M.; Hradil, George

    2011-01-01

    The description and operation of a novel cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the simultaneous removal of mixtures of heavy metals from aqueous solutions are presented. CEP combines the advantages of electrowinning in a spouted particulate electrode (SPE) with that of chemical precipitation and redissolution, to remove heavy metals at low concentrations as solid metal deposits on particulate cathode particles without exporting toxic metal precipitate sludges from the process. The overall result is very large volume reduction of the heavy metal contaminants as a solid metal deposit on particles that can either be safely discarded as such, or further processed to recover particular metals. The performance of this system is demonstrated with data on the removal of mixtures of copper, nickel, and cadmium from aqueous solutions. PMID:22102792

  6. Cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the removal of heavy metal mixtures from aqueous solutions.

    PubMed

    Grimshaw, Pengpeng; Calo, Joseph M; Hradil, George

    2011-11-15

    The description and operation of a novel cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the simultaneous removal of mixtures of heavy metals from aqueous solutions are presented. CEP combines the advantages of electrowinning in a spouted particulate electrode (SPE) with that of chemical precipitation and redissolution, to remove heavy metals at low concentrations as solid metal deposits on particulate cathode particles without exporting toxic metal precipitate sludges from the process. The overall result is very large volume reduction of the heavy metal contaminants as a solid metal deposit on particles that can either be safely discarded as such, or further processed to recover particular metals. The performance of this system is demonstrated with data on the removal of mixtures of copper, nickel, and cadmium from aqueous solutions. PMID:22102792

  7. Experimental Verification of Heavy Ion Irradiation Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Shengyun; Iwata, T.; Xu, Yongjun; Zheng, Yongnan; Zhou, Dongmei; Zhu, Jiazheng; Wang, Zhiqqiang; Yuan, Daqing; Du, Enpeng; Zuo, Yi

    The heavy ion irradiation simulation of neutron and/or proton irradiation has been verified experimentally by the detailed study of radiation damage in α-Al2O3 irradiated at the equivalent dose by 5.28×1015 cm-285 MeV 19F ions and by 3×1020 cm-2 En≥1MeV neutrons, respectively. The radiation damage created by irradiation was examined by a positron annihilation lifetime technique. The positron annihilation parameters of lifetime and intensity obtained for both irradiations in α-Al2O3 are all in good agreement. This demonstrates that the heavy ion irradiation can well simulate the neutron and/or proton irradiation.

  8. Sources of Sahel precipitation for simulated drought and rainy seasons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Koster, Randal D.

    1989-01-01

    The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source regions is 'tagged', allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June-July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this case study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to Sahelian precipitation in the'rainy' simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.

  9. The behaviour of pharmaceuticals and heavy metals during struvite precipitation in urine.

    PubMed

    Ronteltap, Mariska; Maurer, Max; Gujer, Willi

    2007-05-01

    Separating urine from wastewater at the source reduces the costs of extensive wastewater treatment. Recovering the nutrients from urine and reusing them for agricultural purposes adds resource saving to the benefits. Phosphate can be recovered in the form of struvite (magnesium ammonium phosphate). In this paper, the behaviour of pharmaceuticals and heavy metals during the precipitation of struvite in urine is studied. When precipitating struvite in urine spiked with hormones and non-ionic, acidic and basic pharmaceuticals, the hormones and pharmaceuticals remain in solution for more than 98%. For heavy metals, initial experiments were performed to study metal solubility in urine. Solubility is shown to be affected by the chemical conditions of stored and therefore hydrolysed urine. Thermodynamic modelling reveals low or very low equilibrium solute concentrations for cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Experiments confirmed Cd, Cu and Pb carbonate and hydroxide precipitation upon metal addition in stored urine with a reaction half-life of ca. 7 days. For all metals considered, the maximum specific metal concentrations per gram phosphate or nitrogen showed to be typically several orders of magnitudes lower in urine than in commercially available fertilizers and manure. Heavy metals in struvite precipitated from normal stored urine could not be detected. Phosphate recovery from urine over struvite precipitation is shown to render a product free from most organic micropollutants and containing only a fraction of the already low amounts of heavy metals in urine. PMID:17368503

  10. An improved ARIMA model for precipitation simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H. R.; Wang, C.; Lin, X.; Kang, J.

    2014-12-01

    Auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models have been widely used to calculate monthly time series data formed by interannual variations of monthly data or inter-monthly variation. However, the influence brought about by inter-monthly variations within each year is often ignored. An improved ARIMA model is developed in this study accounting for both the interannual and inter-monthly variation. In the present approach, clustering analysis is performed first to hydrologic variable time series. The characteristics of each class are then extracted and the correlation between the hydrologic variable quantity to be predicted and characteristic quantities constructed by linear regression analysis. ARIMA models are built for predicting these characteristics of each class and the hydrologic variable monthly values of year of interest are finally predicted using the modeled values of corresponding characteristics from ARIMA model and the linear regression model. A case study is conducted to predict the monthly precipitation at the Lanzhou precipitation station in Lanzhou, China, using the model, and the results show that the accuracy of the improved model is significantly higher than the seasonal model, with the mean residual achieving 9.41 mm and the forecast accuracy increasing by 21%.

  11. Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William; Arritt, R.; Kawazoe, Sho; Flory, Dave; Takle, Eugene S.; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Jones, Richard; Laprise, Rene; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Mearns, L. O.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, John O.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2010-12-15

    We analyze the ability of the NARCCAP ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the NCEP-DOE reanalysis with observations. Analysis focuses the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October-March), when we assume that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region, the models replicate well the monthly frequency of extremes, the amount of extreme precipitation and the 500 hPa circulation anomaly associated with the extremes. For an Upper Mississippi River Basin region, the models agree with observations in both monthly frequency and magnitude, though not as closely as for coastal California. In addition, simulated circulation anomalies for extreme months are similar to those in observations. Model success appears to result in part from the substantial seasonal variation of extremes, which the models capture well.

  12. Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2008-12-01

    The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c

  13. Mixing Effects on the Precipitation and Cross Flows Filtration of a Hanford Simulated Precipitated Radioactive Waste

    SciTech Connect

    DUIGNAN, MARK

    2004-03-31

    As part of the River Protection Project at Hanford, Washington, Bechtel National, Inc. has been contracted by the United States Department of Energy to design a Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant to stabilize liquid radioactive waste. Because of its experience with radioactive waste stabilization, the Savannah River Technology Center of the Westinghouse Savannah River Company is working with Bechtel National and Washington Group International, to help design and test certain parts of the Waste Treatment Plant. One part of the process is the separation of radioactive isotopes from the liquid waste by a precipitation reaction and cross-flow ultrafiltration. To better understand those combined processes an experiment was performed using a simulated radioactive waste, made to prototypically represent the chemical and physical characteristics of a Hanford waste in tank 241-AN-102 and precipitated under prototypic conditions. The resultant slurry was then filtered using a cross-flow filter prototypic in porosity, length, and diameter to the plant design. An important aspect of filtration for waste treatment is the rate at which permeate is produced. There are many factors that affect filtration rate and one of the most difficult to obtain is the effect of particles in the waste streams. The Waste Treatment Plant will filter many waste streams, with varying concentrations and types of dissolved and undissolved solids. An added complication is the need to precipitate organic complexants so they can be efficiently separated from the supernatant. Depending on how precipitation is performed, the newly created solids will add to the complicating factors that determine permeate flux rate. To investigate the effect of precipitated solids on filter flux a pilot-scale test was performed and two different mixing mechanisms were used for the precipitation reaction. A standard impeller type mixer, which created a homogeneous mixture, and a pulse jet mixer, which created a

  14. Heavy precipitation events in a warmer climate: results from CMIP5 models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoccimarro, E.; Gualdi, S.

    2013-12-01

    In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the distribution of heavy precipitation events under a warmer climate, using the results of a set of 20 climate models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 effort (CMIP5). Future changes are evaluated as the difference between the last four decades of the 21st and the 20th Century assuming the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. As a measure of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, we use the difference between the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation, the considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed patterns in terms of the ensemble average, during both summer and winter seasons for the 1997-2005 period. Future changes in average precipitation are consistent with previous findings based on CMIP3 models. CMIP5 models show a projected increase for the end of the twenty-first century of the width of the right tail of the precipitation distribution, particularly pronounced over India, South East Asia, Indonesia and Central Africa during boreal summer, as well as over South America and southern Africa during boreal winter.

  15. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  16. Evaluation of precipitation predictions in a regional climate simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Costigan, K.R.; Bossert, J.E.; Langely, D.L.

    1998-12-01

    The research reported here is part of a larger project that is coupling a suite of environmental models to simulate the hydrologic cycle within river basins (Bossert et al., 1999). These models include the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which provides meteorological variables and precipitation to the Simulator for Processes of Landscapes, Surface/Subsurface Hydrology (SPLASH). SPLASH partitions precipitation into evaporation, transpiration, soil water storage, surface runoff, and subsurface recharge. The runoff is collected within a simple river channel model and the Finite element Heat and Mass (FEHM) subsurface model is linked to the land surface and river flow model components to simulate saturated and unsaturated flow and changes in aquifer levels. The goal is to produce a fully interactive system of atmospheric, surface hydrology, river and groundwater models to allow water and energy feedbacks throughout the system. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the precipitation fields predicted by the RAMS model at different times during the 1992--1993 water year in the Rio Grande basin. The evaluation includes comparing the model predictions to the observed precipitation as reported by Cooperative Summary of the Day and SNOTEL reporting stations.

  17. Investigation of Aerosol Indirect Effects on Simulated Flash-flood Heavy Rainfall over Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Kyo-Sun; Hong, Songyou

    2012-11-01

    This study investigates aerosol indirect effects on the development of heavy rainfall near Seoul, South Korea, on 12 July 2006, focusing on precipitation amount. The impact of the aerosol concentration on simulated precipitation is evaluated by varying the initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme. The simulations are performed under clean, semi-polluted, and polluted conditions. Detailed analysis of the physical processes that are responsible for surface precipitation, including moisture and cloud microphysical budgets shows enhanced ice-phase processes to be the primary driver of increased surface precipitation under the semi-polluted condition. Under the polluted condition, suppressed autoconversion and the enhanced evaporation of rain cause surface precipitation to decrease. To investigate the role of environmental conditions on precipitation response under different aerosol number concentrations, a set of sensitivity experiments are conducted with a 5 % decrease in relative humidity at the initial time, relative to the base simulations. Results show ice-phase processes having small sensitivity to CCN number concentration, compared with the base simulations. Surface precipitation responds differently to CCN number concentration under the lower humidity initial condition, being greatest under the clean condition, followed by the semi-polluted and polluted conditions.

  18. Heavy precipitation retrieval from combined satellite observations and ground-based lightning measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mugnai, A.; Dietrich, S.; Casella, D.; di Paola, F.; Formenton, M.; Sanò, P.

    2010-09-01

    We have developed a series of algorithms for the retrieval of precipitation (especially, heavy precipitation) over the Mediterranean area using satellite observations from the available microwave (MW) radiometers onboard low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and from the visible-infrared (VIS-IR) SEVIRI radiometer onboard the European geosynchronous (GEO) satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), in conjunction with lightning data from ground-based networks - such as ZEUS and LINET. These are: • A new approach for precipitation retrieval from space (which we call the Cloud Dynamics and Radiation Database approach, CDRD) that incorporates lightning and environmental/dynamical information in addition to the upwelling microwave brightness temperatures (TB’s) so as to reduce the retrieval uncertainty and improve the retrieval performance; • A new combined MW-IR technique for producing frequent precipitation retrievals from space (which we call PM-GCD technique), that uses passive-microwave (PM) retrievals in conjunction with lightning information and the Global Convection Detection (GCD) technique to discriminate deep convective clouds within the GEO observations; • A new morphing approach (which we call the Lightning-based Precipitation Evolving Technique, L-PET) that uses the available lightning measurements for propagating the rainfall estimates from satellite-borne MW radiometers to a much higher time resolution than the MW observations. We will present and discuss our combined MW/IR/lightning precipitation algorithms and analyses with special reference to some case studies over the western Mediterranean.

  19. Simulations of reactive transport and precipitation with smoothed particle hydrodynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.; Meakin, Paul; Scheibe, Timothy D.; Eichler West, Rogene M.

    2007-03-01

    A numerical model based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) was developed for reactive transport and mineral precipitation in fractured and porous materials. Because of its Lagrangian particle nature, SPH has several advantages for modeling Navier-Stokes flow and reactive transport including: (1) in a Lagrangian framework there is no non-linear term in the momentum conservation equation, so that accurate solutions can be obtained for momentum dominated flows and; (2) complicated physical and chemical processes such as surface growth due to precipitation/dissolution and chemical reactions are easy to implement. In addition, SPH simulations explicitly conserve mass and linear momentum. The SPH solution of the diffusion equation with fixed and moving reactive solid-fluid boundaries was compared with analytical solutions, Lattice Boltzmann [Q. Kang, D. Zhang, P. Lichtner, I. Tsimpanogiannis, Lattice Boltzmann model for crystal growth from supersaturated solution, Geophysical Research Letters, 31 (2004) L21604] simulations and diffusion limited aggregation (DLA) [P. Meakin, Fractals, scaling and far from equilibrium. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1998] model simulations. To illustrate the capabilities of the model, coupled three-dimensional flow, reactive transport and precipitation in a fracture aperture with a complex geometry were simulated.

  20. Physically-based, Hydrologic Simulations Driven by Three Precipitation Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chintalapudi, S.; Sharif, H. O.; Yeggina, S.; El Hassan, A.

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluates the model-simulated stream discharge over the Guadalupe River basin in central Texas driven by three precipitation products: the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (GBRA) rain gauge network, the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Stage ΙΙΙ precipitation product, and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product. Focus will be on results from the Upper Guadalupe River sub-basin. This sub-basin is more prone to flooding due to its geological properties (thin soils, exposed bedrock, and sparse vegetation) and the impact of Balcones Escarpment on the moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The physically based, distributed-parameter Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrologic model was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event. Simulations driven by NEXRAD Stage ΙΙΙ 15 - min precipitation yielded better results with low RMSE (88.3%), high NSE (0.6), high R2 (0.73), low RSR (0.63) and low PBIAS (-17.3%) compared to simulations driven by the other products.

  1. Lagrangian simulation of turbulent particle dispersion in electrostatic precipitators

    SciTech Connect

    Soldati, A.; Casal, M.; Andreussi, P.; Banerjee, S.

    1997-06-01

    Industrial design of electrostatic precipitators is based on the transport theory developed by Deutsch (1922), which assumes that transverse turbulent mixing is effective enough to maintain the concentration profile uniform throughout the cross section (i.e., turbulent diffusivity is assumed infinite). To improve understanding of turbulent particle dispersion under the influence of electrostatic forces, a database on particle trajectories was first generated, based on the flow field from a direct numerical simulation of a plate-plate precipitator. The effect of various parameters, such as particle size, charge and particle migration velocity, on dispersion and collection efficiency was investigated. Results show that particle concentration profiles are not uniform due to finite values of turbulent diffusion coefficient. The simulations indicate that the early stages of particle collection are controlled by particle migration velocity, while final stages are controlled by turbulence diffusion mechanisms.

  2. Study of accuracy of precipitation measurements using simulation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Zoltán; Lajos, Tamás; Morvai, Krisztián

    2013-04-01

    Hungarian Meteorological Service1 Budapest University of Technology and Economics2 Precipitation is one of the the most important meteorological parameters describing the state of the climate and to get correct information from trends, accurate measurements of precipitation is very important. The problem is that the precipitation measurements are affected by systematic errors leading to an underestimation of actual precipitation which errors vary by type of precipitaion and gauge type. It is well known that the wind speed is the most important enviromental factor that contributes to the underestimation of actual precipitation, especially for solid precipitation. To study and correct the errors of precipitation measurements there are two basic possibilities: · Use of results and conclusion of International Precipitation Measurements Intercomparisons; · To build standard reference gauges (DFIR, pit gauge) and make own investigation; In 1999 at the HMS we tried to achieve own investigation and built standard reference gauges But the cost-benefit ratio in case of snow (use of DFIR) was very bad (we had several winters without significant amount of snow, while the state of DFIR was continously falling) Due to the problem mentioned above there was need for new approximation that was the modelling made by Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Fluid Mechanics using the FLUENT 6.2 model. The ANSYS Fluent package is featured fluid dynamics solution for modelling flow and other related physical phenomena. It provides the tools needed to describe atmospheric processes, design and optimize new equipment. The CFD package includes solvers that accurately simulate behaviour of the broad range of flows that from single-phase to multi-phase. The questions we wanted to get answer to are as follows: · How do the different types of gauges deform the airflow around themselves? · Try to give quantitative estimation of wind induced error. · How does the use

  3. Mars heavy ion precipitating flux as measured by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leblanc, F.; Modolo, R.; Curry, S.; Luhmann, J.; Lillis, R.; Chaufray, J. Y.; Hara, T.; McFadden, J.; Halekas, J.; Eparvier, F.; Larson, D.; Connerney, J.; Jakosky, B.

    2015-11-01

    In the absence of an intrinsic dipole magnetic field, Mars' O+ planetary ions are accelerated by the solar wind. Because of their large gyroradius, a population of these planetary ions can precipitate back into Mars' upper atmosphere with enough energy to eject neutrals into space via collision. This process, referred to as sputtering, may have been a dominant atmospheric loss process during earlier stages of our Sun. Yet until now, a limited number of observations have been possible; Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms-3/Mars Express observed such a precipitation only during extreme conditions, suggesting that sputtering might be not as intense as theoretically predicted. Here we describe one example of precipitation of heavy ions during quiet solar conditions. Between November 2014 and April 2015, the average precipitating flux is significant and in agreement with predictions. From these measured precipitating fluxes, we estimate that a maximum of 1.0 × 1024 O/s could have been lost due to sputtering.

  4. Improving precipitation simulation from updated surface characteristics in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Gabriel; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Moraes, Elisabete Caria; Chiquetto, Júlio Barboza; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle

    2016-04-01

    Land use and land cover maps and their physical-chemical and biological properties are important variables in the numerical modeling of Earth systems. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze the improvements resulting from the land use and land cover map update in numerical simulations performed using the Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4), as well as the seasonal variations of physical parameters used by the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). In general, the update of the South America 2007 land use and land cover map, used by the BATS, improved the simulation of precipitation by 10 %, increasing the mean temporal correlation coefficient, compared to observed data, from 0.84 to 0.92 (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Correspondingly, the simulations performed with adjustments in maximum fractional vegetation cover, in visible and shortwave infrared reflectance, and in the leaf area index, showed a good agreement for maximum and minimum temperature, with values closer to observed data. The changes in physical parameters and land use updating in BATS/RegCM4 reduced overestimation of simulated precipitation from 19 to 7 % (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Regarding evapotranspiration and precipitation, the most significant differences due to land use updating were located (1) in the Amazon deforestation arc; (2) around the Brazil-Bolivia border (in the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands); (3) in the Northeast region of Brazil; (4) in northwestern Paraguay; and (5) in the River Plate Basin, in Argentina. Moreover, the main precipitation differences between sensitivity and control experiments occurred during the rainy months in central-north South America (October to March). These were associated with a displacement in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) positioning, presenting a spatial pattern of alternated areas with higher and lower precipitation rates. These important differences occur due to the

  5. Soil moisture retrieval from satellite images and its application to heavy rainfall simulation in eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, D. M.; Su, B. K.; Zhao, M.

    2006-03-01

    The soil water index (SWI) from satellite remote sensing and the observational soil moisture from agricultural meteorological stations in eastern China are used to retrieve soil moisture. The analysis of correlation coefficient (CORR), root-mean-squaxe-error (RMSE) and bias (BIAS) shows that the retrieved soil moisture is convincible and close to the observation. The method can overcome the difficulties in soil moisture observation on a large scale and the retrieved soil moisture may reflect the distribution of the real soil moisture objectively. The retrieved soil moisture is used as an initial scheme to replace initial conditions of soil moisture (NCEP) in the model MM5V3 to simulate the heavy rainfall in 1998. Three heavy rainfall processes during 13-14 June, 18-22 June, and 21-26 July 1998 in the Yangtze River valley are analyzed. The first two processes show that the intensity and location of simulated precipitation from SWI are better than those from NCEP and closer to the observed values. The simulated heavy rainfall for 21-26 July shows that the update of soil moisture initial conditions can improve the model's performance. The relationship between soil moisture and rainfall may explain that the stronger rainfall intensity for SWI in the Yangtze River valley is the result of the greater simulated soil moisture from SWI prior to the heavy rainfall date than that from NCEP, and leads to the decline of temperature in the corresponding area in the heavy rainfall days. Detailed analysis of the heavy rainfall on 13-14 June shows that both land-atmosphere interactions and atmospheric circulation were responsible for the heavy rainfall, and it shows how the SWI simulation improves the simulation. The development of mesoscale systems plays an important role in the simulation regarding the change of initial soil moisture for SWI.

  6. Complexity of precipitation patterns: Comparison of simulation with experiment.

    PubMed

    Polezhaev, A. A.; Muller, S. C.

    1994-12-01

    Numerical simulations show that a simple model for the formation of Liesegang precipitation patterns, which takes into account the dependence of nucleation and particle growth kinetics on supersaturation, can explain not only simple patterns like parallel bands in a test tube or concentric rings in a petri dish, but also more complex structural features, such as dislocations, helices, "Saturn rings," or patterns formed in the case of equal initial concentrations of the source substances. The limits of application of the model are discussed. (c) 1994 American Institute of Physics.

  7. Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of

  8. Temporal variability in a stochastic precipitation field simulator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolberg, Sjur

    2016-04-01

    The space-time statistics of short-term precipitation is studied for two cities in northern Europe, and related to radiosonde observations. The motivation is to construct the temporally varying parameters needed to drive a stochastic short-term precipitation generator. Moments, intermittency, semivariograms, temporal covariance and advection parameters need to be characterised in order to produce realistic scenario simulations for extreme value estimation at different scales. It is hoped that the temporal variability in these parameters can be related to radiosonde data. Hourly values from 46 precipitation stations within a 100*130 km2 region around Copenhagen during the period 1979-2012 is analysed. Bi-daily radiosonde profiles are present from 1969 to 2006. These soundings (vertical profiles of temperature, dew point and wind vector) describe the atmospheric moisture content and convective potential of the current weather situation. Preliminary analysis show that some of the indices extracted from the 12h radiosonde data show good temporal autocorrelation, supporting interpolation to match the 1-hour precipitation data. The precipitation data show a rapidly decreasing temporal autocorrelation function (typically below 0.5 above approx. 12 km), indicating that there is a high variance fraction below scales that the station network is able to reveal. The second data set consists of 7.5-minute C-band radar data from Trondheim, available from June 2013 to October 2015. During the 2014 and 2015 summer seasons, around 25 tipping-bucket precipitation gauges within a 15*20 km area supply observations with temporal resolution down to minute-scale. Nearby radiosonde data are available bi-daily from 1963 to 2015. These data will be explored to provide insight in high-frequency spatial and temporal variability not detectable from the long-term Copenhagen data set. The analysis is a part of the EU-7FP project "Pearl" (http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/, Greve case study), the Norwegian

  9. Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with

  10. Idealized Simulations of Precipitation Regimes over Small Tropical Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, S.; Sobel, A. H.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical islands are global focal points of convection. Observational studies have shown that precipitation over tropical islands is strongly regulated by their size and elevation, and by the large scale prevailing wind. To further develop physical understanding of convection over tropical islands, we perform a set of highly idealized simulations with uniform sea surface temperature to explore flow regimes around an idealized small island (~120 km wide) as a function of large scale wind speed and island elevation. In our simulations the domain as a whole is in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE), which constrains the domain average precipitation. The island occupies a small part of the domain, so that significant precipitation variations over the island can occur, compensated by smaller anomalies over the larger surrounding area. Over flat islands, as we vary prevailing wind speed, the island experiences three distinct flow regimes: rainfall is greatly enhanced and a local symmetric circulation is formed in the time mean around the island when the prevailing large scale wind speed is small (0 m/s); but there is little rainfall enhancement when the wind speed is increased to a moderate value (~5 m/s). We interpret these two regimes as the shift of triggering mechanism of convection: thermally forced convection due to surface solar heating dominates when large scale wind is very weak, while mechanically forced convection is favored when the impinging wind is moderate. Further increase of the prevailing wind speed to large values leads to strong asymmetry in the windward and leeward side of island and its coastal area, likely due to gravity waves from flow passing over elevated diurnal heating. Topography has a quantitative impact, but does not alter the qualitative shift of flow regimes as a function of wind speed.

  11. Organization of the Tropical Convective Cloud Population by Humidity and the Critical Transition to Heavy Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igel, M.

    2015-12-01

    The tropical atmosphere exhibits an abrupt statistical switch between non-raining and heavily raining states as column moisture increases across a wide range of length scales. Deep convection occurs at values of column humidity above the transition point and induces drying of moist columns. With a 1km resolution, large domain cloud resolving model run in RCE, what will be made clear here for the first time is how the entire tropical convective cloud population is affected by and feeds back to the pickup in heavy precipitation. Shallow convection can act to dry the low levels through weak precipitation or vertical redistribution of moisture, or to moisten toward a transition to deep convection. It is shown that not only can deep convection dehydrate the entire column, it can also dry just the lower layer through intense rain. In the latter case, deep stratiform cloud then forms to dry the upper layer through rain with anomalously high rates for its value of column humidity until both the total column moisture falls below the critical transition point and the upper levels are cloud free. Thus, all major tropical cloud types are shown to respond strongly to the same critical phase-transition point. This mutual response represents a potentially strong organizational mechanism for convection, and the frequency of and logical rules determining physical evolutions between these convective regimes will be discussed. The precise value of the point in total column moisture at which the transition to heavy precipitation occurs is shown to result from two independent thresholds in lower-layer and upper-layer integrated humidity.

  12. Heavy Precipitation impacts and emergency planning - developing applicable strategies for a metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Heavy rainfall in central Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change, which occurs with large seasonal and regional differences in its magnitude. The extent of loss depends on natural parameters (e.g. topography and vegetation) as well as on socio-economic factors like urbanized and industrialized areas and population density. Dangerous cascade effects appear, if critical infrastructure like the electrical power supply is affected. In some cases mudflows and flash floods cause inundated or undercut roads and cause a high demand for fast and effective assistance of the authorities. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Commonly this responsibility is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units of the community or district. After heavy rainfall in an urban area, numerous incidents and emergency calls appearing at a time are overstressing the human and technical resources of the fire brigades within the local authority frequently. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades shall be developed for the Rhine-Main-Area in order to identify particular affected spots of heavy rain and bundle resources of the fire brigades. It is to be found out if the study area contains regions with a particularly high exposure to heavy rain and high application numbers of the fire department and whether there is a relationship of rainfall and frequency of use. To evaluate particular local effects on the fire brigades capability, a brief analysis of the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as well as the evaluation of the incident data of the affected fire brigades, is used to frame a realistic approach. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain

  13. Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twardosz, Robert; Cebulska, Marta; Walanus, Adam

    2015-08-01

    The paper addresses the frequency, amount and geographic coverage of anomalously heavy precipitation in southern Poland in relation to atmospheric circulation at the monthly and seasonal scales between 1881 and 2010. The Carpathian Mountains and their foreland were selected for the study as an area known for its high precipitation totals and frequent precipitation-triggered natural disasters, such as floods and landslides. Records from 18 stations were used to identify anomalously heavy precipitation (AHP) defined for the purposes of the study, as the top quartile (Q 75 %) plus 1.5 times the interquartile gap (H) of the precipitation total (P ≥ Q 75 % + 1.5H). The study found that most cases of AHP were recorded at one single station each. This suggests that, in addition, to the influence of circulation, local factors also play a major role in the formation of particularly heavy precipitation. The greatest absolute anomalously high precipitation totals were recorded in two disparate parts of the study area: (i) its western part exposed to wet air masses from over the Atlantic Ocean brought in by the dominant western circulation in the temperate zone and (ii) elevated parts of its south-eastern part. Two months with AHP (AHP months) occurred over the entire area (18 stations) in May 1940 and 2010. The latter case had both the greatest absolute totals (over 500 mm) and relative totals defined as their ratio to the long-term average (500 %), and it triggered a catastrophic flood in the Upper Vistula basin.

  14. Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twardosz, Robert; Cebulska, Marta; Walanus, Adam

    2016-10-01

    The paper addresses the frequency, amount and geographic coverage of anomalously heavy precipitation in southern Poland in relation to atmospheric circulation at the monthly and seasonal scales between 1881 and 2010. The Carpathian Mountains and their foreland were selected for the study as an area known for its high precipitation totals and frequent precipitation-triggered natural disasters, such as floods and landslides. Records from 18 stations were used to identify anomalously heavy precipitation (AHP) defined for the purposes of the study, as the top quartile ( Q 75 %) plus 1.5 times the interquartile gap (H) of the precipitation total ( P ≥ Q 75 % + 1.5 H). The study found that most cases of AHP were recorded at one single station each. This suggests that, in addition, to the influence of circulation, local factors also play a major role in the formation of particularly heavy precipitation. The greatest absolute anomalously high precipitation totals were recorded in two disparate parts of the study area: (i) its western part exposed to wet air masses from over the Atlantic Ocean brought in by the dominant western circulation in the temperate zone and (ii) elevated parts of its south-eastern part. Two months with AHP (AHP months) occurred over the entire area (18 stations) in May 1940 and 2010. The latter case had both the greatest absolute totals (over 500 mm) and relative totals defined as their ratio to the long-term average (500 %), and it triggered a catastrophic flood in the Upper Vistula basin.

  15. Impacts of heavy precipitation events to emergency preparedness and response in the Rhine-Main-Area (Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Heavy precipitation events are assumed effects of the climate change with wide seasonal and regional differences concerning their magnitude. An increase of particular short and intense rainfall is predicted by climate modelling for mid-Germany within the next 30 years, especially in spring and summer. The Rhine-Main-Area is stated one of the largest metropolitan areas in Germany with a very high density in population as well as industrial and traffic infrastructure. The vulnerability to natural hazards rises according to this fact. It is shown, that even today's heavy precipitation events have already a large extend of loss and cause high operational expenses to the Fire Departments involved, mainly caused by the enormous number of same-time reported incidents. The Fire Brigade of a community represents the responsible authority for rapid intervention to all kinds of emergencies resulting from heavy precipitation events. All emergency interventions by the local fire-brigade are coordinated by a superior local emergency control center, also operated by the Fire Department, where all incidents are logged in an electronic control system. The German Meteorological Service (DWD) offers support in previous warning and provides data for the subsequent evaluation of heavy precipitation events. The analysis of the correlation between heavy precipitation and reported local incidents for the Fire Departments helps to point out the problem. Within the efforts to cope with the consequences of climate change effects, the authorities as well as the hazard control institutions have to prepare new strategies and emergency plans for the future as requested by the German "National adaption strategy to the climate change". This is not especially a task for the Fire Brigades, but also for the general public to enhance their resilience. Keywords: emergency planning, infrastructure, heavy-precipitation

  16. Simulation of Historical and Future Precipitation over the Wasatch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scalzitti, J.; Strong, C.; Kochanski, A.

    2015-12-01

    This research presents the results of a retrospective simulation of precipitation over Utah, focused on the Wasatch Mountains spanning calendar years 1985-2010. Here WRF is used to downscale CFSR within three nested domains, with the 4-km innermost domain coupled with a slab lake model developed by Strong et al. (2014) to better evaluate the regional effects of the Great Salt Lake. Results are verified using SNOTEL and PRISM data, and while noting the well-documented SNOTEL limitations, this simulation properly depicts the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation over the Wasatch Mountains. Noted biases are explored (WRF minus SNOTEL), including the apparent relationship between the sign of significant daily bias and mean atmospheric properties. Large positive differences between the model and SNOTEL mean daily totals correlate with warm, moist, quasi-zonal flow, while relatively cool, dry, trough-type regimes express the dry tail of the bias distribution. These conclusions sugget the role of processes internal to WRF and the applied schemes in the generation of the largest daily biases which then accumulate to monthly and seasonal departures from observed climatology. Additionally, preliminary results are presented from future projections, which apply this same WRF-downscaling methodology to CCSM at end of the current century. These results indicate noteworthy changes in the median April 1 Snow Water Equivalent by end of century across the Wasatch Mountains. Compared to retrospective runs, future projections indicate a net reduction in SWE of approximately 15% accompanying a modest (<10%) increase at very high elevation exceeding approximately 8500 feet.

  17. Radio-Occultation and Heavy Precipitation aboard the PAZ orbiter (ROHP-PAZ) and its Ground-Based campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De La Torre Juarez, M.; Padulles, R.; Cardellach, E.; Tomás, S.; Turk, J.; Ao, C. O.

    2014-12-01

    For the first time ever, GNSS Radio Occultastion measurements will be taken at two polarizations, to exploit the potential capabilities of polarimetric radio occultation for detecting and quantifying heavy precipitation events and other de-polarizing atmospheric effects (e.g. cloud ice). We report the results on discriminating rain from a mountain top experiment set up to identify and understand the factors that affect the polarimetric RO signal by collecting heavy rain together with free-rain data.

  18. Simulating changes in precipitation associated with the 2011 US Mid-West floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pall, P.; Stone, D. A.; Wehner, M. F.

    2013-12-01

    Large floods within the Ohio River basin have been known to occur on a few occasions during the past century, and are associated with an eastward shift of the usual synoptic system that transports moisture inland from the gulf of Mexico. Here we focus on the damaging floods of spring 2011, which were associated with heavy spring rainfalls following large winter snowfalls. We take a first look at a medium-sized (order 50-member) ensemble of simulations of Mid-West US precipitation, generated with the global CAM5.1 under conditions representing the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions for spring 2011 -- with a view to downscaling and feeding this precipitation in to a hydrology model to determine the odds of the observed magnitude of floods occurring. Furthermore, we look at a parallel ensemble of simulations generated under hypothetical spring 2011 conditions in which anthropogenic climate drivers were not present, in order determine the change (if any) in odds of flood occurrence, as per a Probabilistic Event Attribution framework.

  19. Verification of the isotopic composition of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model over Japan.

    PubMed

    Tanoue, Masahiro; Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Yoshimura, Kei

    2016-01-01

    The isotopic composition (δ(18)O and δ(2)H) of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 10, 30 and 50 km was compared with observations at 56 sites over Japan in 2013. All simulations produced reasonable spatio-temporal variations in δ(18)O in precipitation over Japan, except in January. In January, simulated δ(18)O values in precipitation were higher than observed values on the Pacific side of Japan, especially during an explosively developing extratropical cyclone event. This caused a parameterisation of precipitation formulation about the large fraction of precipitated water to liquid detrained water in the lower troposphere. As a result, most water vapour that transported from the Sea of Japan precipitated on the Sea of Japan side. The isotopic composition of precipitation was a useful verification tool for the parameterisation of precipitation formulation as well as large-scale moisture transport processes in the regional isotope circulation model.

  20. A comparative study of two heavy rainfall processes in mesoscale simulation over Taihang Mountain Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Yuan, H.

    2013-12-01

    Heavy rainfall hit Taihang Mountain Area in north China on July 8-9, 2012. There were two main rainfall centers located in the south of the mountain and in Beijing area. Despite of the same occurrence time, these two precipitation processes were induced by different systems and distinguished from each other. This study compares these two rainfall processes and investigates different mechanisms that influence the convection initiation. Firstly, using a set of measurements and model analysis data, the synoptic and mesoscale conditions of the heavy rainfalls are diagnosed. The long-lasting heavy rainfall in the south of Taihang Mountain occurred with the development of large-scale synoptic circulation patterns. The combination of upper short wave trough, the middle and lower level shear line and the surface cold front together with the moist southeast flow provided favorable conditions for organized convection, producing wide range precipitation. In contrast, the system occurred in Beijing area was much smaller in scale and was hardly observed from satellite imagery. In fact, the short-time convection induced heavy local rains up to 50mm/h in Beijing area. Secondly, the operational forecasts by 3-km Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model did not predict the small-scale system in Beijing area well. In order to study small-scale convection in Beijing area, high-resolution simulation is carried out using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) driven by the NCEP GFS 0.5°×0.5°data. Finally, with the help of the fine simulation, convection initiation and evolution mechanisms for the two systems are further discussed. (a) Distribution of precipitation (mm) from 11UTC-23UTC July 8, 2012, overlaid with terrain height (m) and (b) FY-2E TBB (k) at 16UTC July 8, 2012

  1. Effects of ice-phase cloud microphysics in simulating wintertime precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jinwon; Cho, Han-Ru; Soong, Sy-Tzai

    1995-11-01

    We compare two numerical experiments to investigate the effects of ice-phase cloud microphysical processes on simulations of wintertime precipitation in the southwestern United States. Results of these simulations, one with and the other without ice-phase microphysics, suggest that an inclusion of ice-phase microphysics plays a crucial role in simulating wintertime precipitation. The simulation that employs both the ice and water-phase microphysics better reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation compared to the one without ice-phase microphysics. The most significant effect of ice-phase microphysics appeared in local production of precipitating particles by collection processes, rather than in local condensation.

  2. Heavy metals in wastewater: Modelling the hydroxide precipitation of copper(II) from wastewater using lime as the precipitant

    SciTech Connect

    Baltpurvins, K.A.; Burns, R.C.; Lawrance, G.A.

    1996-12-31

    The effect of effluent composition (Cl{sup {minus}}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2{minus}} or CO{sub 3}{sup 2{minus}}) on the efficiency of the hydroxide precipitation of Cu(II) modelling lime (CaO) as the precipitant has been predicted using the solubility domain approach and has been experimentally validated. Solubility domains were based on the phases that were found to be solubility-limiting for systems representing potential effluent chemical composition limits. The generated solubility domains generally encompassed the experimentally observed solubilities, thereby providing effluent treatment quality assurance ranges for the hydroxide precipitation process. The presence of gypsum (CaSO{sub 4{center_dot}}2H{sub 2}O) and calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) as secondary precipitates had little effect on the observed residual Cu(II) solubilities, with Cu(II) mobility being governed by the least-soluble kinetically precipitated (rather than thermodynamically favored) phase in the system under study.

  3. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the effects of five cumulus closure assumptions on simulations of summer precipitation in the continental U.S. by utilizing an ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation. Results demonstrate that closure algorithms significantly affect the summer mean, daily frequency and intensity, and diurnal variation of precipitation, with strong regional dependence. Overall, the vertical velocity (W) closure produces the smallest summer mean biases, while the moisture convergence (MC) closure most realistically reproduces daily variability. Both closures have advantages over others in simulating U.S. daily rainfall frequency distribution, though both slightly overestimate intense rain events. The MC closure is superior at capturing summer rainfall amount, daily variability, and heavy rainfall frequency over the Central U.S., but systematically produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S., which can be reduced by using the W closure. The instability tendency (TD) and the total instability adjustment (KF) closures are better at capturing observed diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and the NAM, respectively. The results reasonably explain the systematic behaviors of several major cumulus parameterizations. A preliminary experiment combining two optimal closures (averaged moisture convergence and vertical velocity) in the ECP scheme significantly reduced the wet (dry) biases over the Southeast U.S. in the summer of 1993 (2003), and greatly improved daily rainfall correlations over the NAM. Further improved model simulation skills may be achieved in the future if optimal closures and their appropriate weights can be derived at different time scales based on specific climate regimes.

  4. Numerical simulation of toughening of alumina particulate glass matrix composite by interfacial precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Kageyama, K.; Enoki, M.; Kishi, T.

    1994-12-31

    Strengthening and toughening by interfacial precipitation are strongly connected with crack bowing and deflection. In the present study, three dimensional numerical simulation of these events was performed on ceramics particulate glass matrix composites with interfacial precipitation by calculating the equations for a crack bowing and deflection. This numerical simulation revealed that fracture toughness and strength increased with the addition of interfacial precipitation because a crack bowing emerged. These results are in agreement with experimental data for fracture toughness.

  5. Development of Radar-Satellite Blended QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Technique for heavy rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Sangmin; Yoon, Sunkwon; Rhee, Jinyoung; Park, Kyungwon

    2016-04-01

    Due to the recent extreme weather and climate change, a frequency and size of localized heavy rainfall increases and it may bring various hazards including sediment-related disasters, flooding and inundation. To prevent and mitigate damage from such disasters, very short range forecasting and nowcasting of precipitation amounts are very important. Weather radar data very useful in monitoring and forecasting because weather radar has high resolution in spatial and temporal. Generally, extrapolation based on the motion vector is the best method of precipitation forecasting using radar rainfall data for a time frame within a few hours from the present. However, there is a need for improvement due to the radar rainfall being less accurate than rain-gauge on surface. To improve the radar rainfall and to take advantage of the COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data, a technique to blend the different data types for very short range forecasting purposes was developed in the present study. The motion vector of precipitation systems are estimated using 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity by pattern matching method, which indicates the systems' direction and speed of movement and blended radar-COMS rain field is used for initial data. Since the original horizontal resolution of COMS is 4 km while that of radar is about 1 km, spatial downscaling technique is used to downscale the COMS data from 4 to 1 km pixels in order to match with the radar data. The accuracies of rainfall forecasting data were verified utilizing AWS (Automatic Weather System) observed data for an extreme rainfall occurred in the southern part of Korean Peninsula on 25 August 2014. The results of this study will be used as input data for an urban stream real-time flood early warning system and a prediction model of landslide. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by

  6. Sensitivity of a simulated extreme precipitation event to spatial resolution, parametrisations and assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, J.; Carvalho, A.; Carvalheiro, L.; Rocha, A.; Castanheira, J.

    2010-09-01

    In the morning of the 18th of February 2008 Lisbon and Setúbal were under the influence of a heavy rain event associated to a cut-off low formed in southern Azores between the 14th and 15th of February. The total daily precipitation record was exceeded in the 18th of February at Lisboa/Geofísico station; 36 mm of precipitation were registered between 4 and 5 a.m., whereas in Setúbal 60 mm were recorded during one hour (between 11 and 12 a.m.), of the same day. These two cities are located near the mouth of Tagus and Sado rivers, respectively, running to the Atlantic Ocean, and both have experience severe floods. The present work will present the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to different geometric model configurations and physical parametrisations, and to data assimilation procedures for the same grid resolution and physical parametrisations. The WRF model is running in operational mode for Portugal at the University of Aveiro in two different horizontal and vertical resolution and physical set of parametrisations, driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts. The first configuration (OP1) is shown in http://climetua.fis.ua.pt/main/otempo.php?lang=pt and consists of two nested domains and 27 vertical levels, the coarsest domain (25 km) covering the Iberian Peninsula and part of the East Atlantic and the finer grid domain (5 km) covering Portugal. For the second configuration (OP2) (shown in http://www2.fis.ua.pt/torre/luis/), the outer and inner domains have a horizontal resolution of 21 and 7 km, respectively. The physics parametrisation of the two operational designs differ on the microphysics and cumulus schemes, and on the applied land surface model, which are named respectively for: (i) OP1 - WSM 6 class graupel microphysics scheme, Grell-Devenyi ensemble cumulus scheme and Unified Noah land-surface model; (ii) OP2 - Ferrier microphysics scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and Thermal diffusion land-surface model

  7. Precipitation uncertainty propagation in hydrologic simulations: evaluation over the Iberian Peninsula.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Polcher, Jan; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Kallos, George

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation is arguably one of the most important forcing variables that drive terrestrial water cycle processes. The process of precipitation exhibits significant variability in space and time, is associated with different water phases (liquid or solid) and depends on several other factors (aerosols, orography etc), which make estimation and modeling of this process a particularly challenging task. As such, precipitation information from different sensors/products is associated with uncertainty. Propagation of this uncertainty into hydrologic simulations can have a considerable impact on the accuracy of the simulated hydrologic variables. Therefore, to make hydrologic predictions more useful, it is important to investigate and assess the impact of precipitation uncertainty in hydrologic simulations in order to be able to quantify it and identify ways to minimize it. In this work we investigate the impact of precipitation uncertainty in hydrologic simulations using land surface models (e.g. ORCHIDEE) and global hydrologic models (e.g. WaterGAP3) for the simulation of several hydrologic variables (soil moisture, ET, runoff) over the Iberian Peninsula. Uncertainty in precipitation is assessed by utilizing various sources of precipitation input that include one reference precipitation dataset (SAFRAN), three widely-used satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42v7, CMORPH, PERSIANN) and a state-of-the-art reanalysis product (WFDEI) based on the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Comparative analysis is based on using the SAFRAN-simulations as reference and it is carried out at different space (0.5deg or regional average) and time (daily or seasonal) scales. Furthermore, as an independent verification, simulated discharge is compared against available discharge observations for selected major rivers of Iberian region. Results allow us to draw conclusions regarding the impact of precipitation uncertainty with respect to i) hydrologic variable of interest, ii

  8. Using Smart Planning to Mitigate Drought in Urban Areas: A Seasonal Simulation of the Impact of Urbanization on Precipitation in the Indianapolis Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmid, P. E.; Niyogi, D.

    2012-12-01

    The Indianapolis region exhibits a precipitation distribution indicative of urban weather modification: negative bias upwind and positive bias downwind. The causes for such a distribution within an urban area arise from a combination of land-surface heterogeneity and urban aerosol-cloud interaction. This study investigates the causes of the precipitation distribution with a 120-day simulation using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) coupled with the Town Energy Budget (TEB) model. Using a nested grid with a maximum resolution of 500m, a seasonal simulation of May through August, 2008 is conducted. Land surface conditions are varied, removing, expanding, and intensifying the Indianapolis urban area. Aerosol conditions are scaled by a three-dimensional combination of MODIS and CALIPSO observations, and varied in concentration and plume extent. Results from the study demonstrate the paradigm of urban precipitation modification on a seasonal time scale. The boundary between the rural and urban land surfaces weakens approaching systems upwind, decreasing precipitation in the city center. A larger urban extent diminishes the systems further. The aerosol plume downwind increases cloud lifetimes via cloud-nucleating aerosol, then invigorates precipitation via large drizzle-invigorating aerosols. The overall effect reproduces the observed negative precipitation bias upwind and positive bias downwind of the urban center. A lower concentration of aerosols leads to a higher proportion of stratiform rain over a larger area, whereas a higher concentration of aerosols leads to more convective rain and heavy rain events. This manifests in a weekly cycle of precipitation with rain most likely on weekends, and with less frequent but heavier rain events most likely during midweek, when aerosol concentrations are the highest. More intense urbanization, via both land surface and aerosol effects, creates more frequent heavy rainfall events and exacerbates dry

  9. Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

    DOE PAGES

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Huang, Anning; Yan, Huiping

    2014-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved.more » The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.« less

  10. Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Huang, Anning; Yan, Huiping

    2014-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved. The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.

  11. Numerical Simulations of Urea Hydrolysis and Calcite Precipitation in Porous Media Using STOMP

    SciTech Connect

    Luanjing Guo; Hai Huang; Bill X. Hu

    2010-11-01

    Subsurface radionuclide and trace metal contaminants throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex pose one of DOE’s greatest challenges for long-term stewardship. One promising in situ immobilization approach of these contaminants is engineered mineral (co)precipitation of calcite driven by urea hydrolysis that is catalyzed by enzyme urease. The tight nonlinear coupling among flow, transport, reaction and reaction-induced property changes of media of this approach was studied by reactive transport simulations with systematically increasing level of complexities of reaction network and physical/chemical heterogeneities using a numerical simulator named STOMP. Sensitivity studies on the reaction rates of both urea hydrolysis and calcite precipitation are performed via controlling urease enzyme concentration and precipitation rate constant according to the rate models employed. We have found that the rate of ureolysis is a dominating factor in the amount of precipitated mineral; however, the spatial distribution of the precipitates depends on both rates of ureolysis and calcite precipitation. A maximum 5% reduction in the porosity was observed within the simulation time period of 6 pore volumes in our 1-dimensional (1D) column simulations. When a low permeability inclusion is considered in the 2D simulations, the altered flow fields redistribute mineral forming constituents, leading to a distorted precipitation reaction front. The simulations also indicate that mineral precipitation occurs along the boundary of the low permeability zone, which implies that contaminants in the low permeability zone could be encapsulated and isolated from the flow paths.

  12. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2014-05-01

    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  13. The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

    2000-01-01

    This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

  14. Fingering dynamics driven by a precipitation reaction: Nonlinear simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, Priyanka; De Wit, A.

    2016-02-01

    A fingering instability can develop at the interface between two fluids when the more mobile fluid is injected into the less-mobile one. For example, viscous fingering appears when a less viscous (i.e., more mobile) fluid displaces a more viscous (and hence less mobile) one in a porous medium. Fingering can also be due to a local change in mobility arising when a precipitation reaction locally decreases the permeability. We numerically analyze the properties of the related precipitation fingering patterns occurring when an A +B →C chemical reaction takes place, where A and B are reactants in solution and C is a solid product. We show that, similarly to reactive viscous fingering patterns, the precipitation fingering structures differ depending on whether A invades B or vice versa. This asymmetry can be related to underlying asymmetric concentration profiles developing when diffusion coefficients or initial concentrations of the reactants differ. In contrast to reactive viscous fingering, however, precipitation fingering patterns appear at shorter time scales than viscous fingers because the solid product C has a diffusivity tending to zero which destabilizes the displacement. Moreover, contrary to reactive viscous fingering, the system is more unstable with regard to precipitation fingering when the high-concentrated solution is injected into the low-concentrated one or when the faster diffusing reactant displaces the slower diffusing one.

  15. The role of precipitation size distributions in km-scale NWP simulations of intense precipitation: Evaluation of cloud properties and surface precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Van Weverberg K.; Vogelmann A.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.; Delobbec, L.

    2012-04-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of simulated cloud properties and surface precipitation to assumptions regarding the size distributions of the precipitating hydrometeors in a one-moment bulk microphysics scheme. Three sensitivity experiments were applied to two composites of 15 convective and 15 frontal stratiform intense precipitation events observed in a coastal midlatitude region (Belgium), which were evaluated against satellite-retrieved cloud properties and radar-rain-gauge derived surface precipitation. It is found that the cloud optical thickness distribution was well captured by all experiments, although a significant underestimation of cloudiness occurred in the convective composite. The cloud-top-pressure distribution was improved most by more realistic snow size distributions (including a temperature-dependent intercept parameter and non-spherical snow for the calculation of the slope parameter), due to increased snow depositional growth at high altitudes. Surface precipitation was far less sensitive to whether graupel or hail was chosen as the rimed ice species, as compared to previous idealized experiments. This smaller difference in sensitivity could be explained by the stronger updraught velocities and higher freezing levels in the idealized experiments compared to typical coastal midlatitude environmental conditions.

  16. Investigating the Effectiveness of Mineral Precipitate as a Tool in the Removal of Heavy Metals from Mine Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abongwa, P. T.; Geyer, C.; Puckette, J.

    2014-12-01

    Mine water from a precious metal mine in Colorado drains into an underground tunnel and flows for about 8 km before being discharged into a series of sequentially connected settling ponds (5) aimed at removing suspended particulate. Our results suggest these ponds also remove heavy metals from solution through adsorption and mineral precipitation. Analyses of the precipitates and water in the settling ponds showed relatively higher metal concentration on the precipitates than in the corresponding aqueous solutions. Speciation modeling showed that the precipitates were mainly travertine, ferrihydrite, fe-oxyhdroxide and gypsum and these are expected to provide surfaces for metal adsorption. Overall, the average concentrations of trace metals were such that, Al concentration was 0.0 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 9.4 mg/L for the precipitate; Fe concentration was 0.04 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 20.1 mg/L for the precipitate; Mn concentration was 0.2 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 10.2 mg/L for the precipitate; Sr concentration was 3 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 8 mg/L for the precipitate; Zn concentration was 0.1 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 1.4 mg/L for the precipitate. Sulfate concentrations in solutions (1346 mg/L) were about seventeen times higher than on the precipitate (80 mg/L). As the water exits the tunnel, its carbon is expected to consistently decrease over space as it moves along the settling ponds while precipitating carbonates. The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations showed consistent drop from 109 mg/L at the tunnel exit to 96 mg/L at middle pond and 92 mg/L at the exit pond, which corresponds to decreasing pCO2 and removal of carbon from solution through travertine precipitation and CO2 outgassing. This data indicate a strong influence of mineral precipitate as an effective component in the attenuation of metals in mine

  17. Simulation of Precipitation at Multiple Stations Using a Multivariate Autoregressive Model With Censored Normal Marginals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gautam, N.; Rasmussen, P. F.

    2005-05-01

    Stochastic weather generators are frequently used in climate change studies to simulate input to hydrologic models. In this presentation, we focus on the particular problem of simulating daily precipitation at multiple stations in a region for which records are available. Daily precipitation is a highly intermittent process, highly variable in space, and typically has a highly skewed distribution. A stochastic precipitation model should ideally preserve the regional pattern of intermittence, the autocorrelation, the cross-correlation, and the marginal distributions of observed precipitation. For this purpose, we employed a multivariate autoregressive model. Below zero-values were considered days with no rain. To preserve the marginal distributions of observed precipitation at different stations some prior transformation of data was required. The presentation will describe the experience gained from applying the model to precipitation records in Canada. Focus will be on analytical model properties, methods of parameter estimation, and the preservation of observed statistics in the application.

  18. Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2015-12-01

    Reproducibility of diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs were evaluated, in comparison with station data (NCDC-9813) and satellite data (GSMaP-V5). We first calculated diurnal cycles by averaging precipitation at each local solar time (LST) in June-July-August during 1981-2000 over the continent of northern Eurasia (0-180E, 45-90N). Then we examined occurrence time of maximum precipitation and a contribution of diurnally varying precipitation to the total precipitation.The contribution of diurnal precipitation was about 21% in both NCDC-9813 and GSMaP-V5. The maximum precipitation occurred at 18LST in NCDC-9813 but 16LST in GSMaP-V5, indicating some uncertainties even in the observational datasets. The diurnal contribution of the CMIP5 models varied largely from 11% to 62%, and their timing of the precipitation maximum ranged from 11LST to 20LST. Interestingly, the contribution and the timing had strong negative correlation of -0.65. The models with larger diurnal precipitation showed precipitation maximum earlier around noon. Next, we compared sensitivity of precipitation to surface temperature and tropospheric humidity between 5 models with large diurnal precipitation (LDMs) and 5 models with small diurnal precipitation (SDMs). Precipitation in LDMs showed high sensitivity to surface temperature, indicating its close relationship with local instability. On the other hand, synoptic disturbances were more active in SDMs with a dominant role of the large scale condensation, and precipitation in SDMs was more related with tropospheric moisture. Therefore, the relative importance of the local instability and the synoptic disturbances was suggested to be an important factor in determining the contribution and timing of the diurnal precipitation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

  19. SIMULATION OF CHAMBER TRANSPORT FOR HEAVY-ION FUSION DRIVERS

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, W M; Callahan, D A; Tabak, M; Yu, S S; Peterson, P F; Rose, D V; Welch, D R

    2004-05-20

    The heavy-ion fusion (HIF) community recently developed a power-plant design that meets the various requirements of accelerators, final focus, chamber transport, and targets. The point design is intended to minimize physics risk and is certainly not optimal for the cost of electricity. Recent chamber-transport simulations, however, indicate that changes in the beam ion species, the convergence angle, and the emittance might allow more-economical designs.

  20. Hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (heavy) simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

    1981-01-01

    A computer program to simulate hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (HEAVY) is described. It is intended for use early in the design process: concept evaluation, alternative comparison, preliminary design, control and management strategy development, component sizing, and sensitivity studies. It allows the designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict the performance of a proposed drive train. The user defines the system to be simulated using a library of predefined component models that may be connected to represent a wide variety of propulsion systems. The development of three models are discussed as examples.

  1. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  2. Community Response to a Heavy Precipitation Event in High Temperature, Chemosynthetic Biofilms and Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer-Dombard, D. R.; Loiacono, S. T.; Shock, E.

    2012-12-01

    Coordinated analysis of the "Bison Pool" (BP) Environmental Genome and a complementary contextual geochemical dataset of ~75 parameters revealed biogeochemical cycling and metabolic and microbial community shifts in a Yellowstone National Park hot spring ecosystem (1). The >22m outflow of BP is a gradient of decreasing temperature, increasing dissolved oxygen, and changing availability of nutrients. Microbial life at BP transitions from a 92°C chemosynthetic community in the BP source pool to a 56°C photosynthetic mat community. Metagenomic data at BP showed the potential for both heterotrophic and autotrophic carbon metabolism (rTCA and acetyl-CoA cycles) in the highest temperature, chemosynthetic regions (1). This region of the outflow is dominated by Aquificales and Pyrococcus relatives, with smaller contributions of heterotrophic Bacteria. Following a 2h heavy precipitation event we observed an influx of exogenous organic material into the source pool supplied from the meadow surrounding the BP area. We sampled biomass and fluid at several locations within the outflow immediately following the event, and on several occasions for the next eight days. Elemental analysis and carbon and nitrogen isotopic analyses were conducted on biomass and sediment, and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon content and δ13C of fluids were analyzed. DNA and RNA were extracted, and following RT-PCR, nitrogen cycle functional gene expression was evaluated. Previous work at BP has shown that chemosynthetic biomass may carry isotopic signatures of fractionation during carbon fixation, via the acetyl-CoA and rTCA cycles (2). However, the addition of exogenous organic carbon during the rain event had an immediate and dramatic effect on the sediments and biofilms in the chemosynthetic zone of the outflow. Dissolved organic carbon was the highest measured in six years. Chemosynthetic biomass responded by incorporating the organic carbon. Carbon isotopic signatures in chemosynthetic

  3. The precipitation of energetic heavy ions into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horanyi, M.; Cravens, T. E.; Waite, J. H., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Evidence for auroral particle precipitation at Jupiter was provided by the ultraviolet spectrometers onboard the Voyagers 1 and 2 spacecraft and by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Magnetospheric measurements made by instruments onboard the Voyager spacecraft show that energetic sulfur and oxygen ions are precipitating into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. A theoretical model has been constructed describing the interaction of precipitating oxygen with the Jovian atmosphere. The auroral energy is deposited in the atmosphere by means of ionization, excitation, and dissociation and heating of the atmospheric gas. Energetic ion and electron precipitation are shown to have similar effects on the atmosphere and ionosphere of Jupiter.

  4. The sensitivity of precipitation simulations to the soot aerosol presence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palamarchuk, Iuliia; Ivanov, Sergiy; Mahura, Alexander; Ruban, Igor

    2016-04-01

    The role of aerosols in nonlinear feedbacks on atmospheric processes is in a focus of many researches. Particularly, the importance of black carbon particles for evolution of physical weather including precipitation formation and release is investigated by numerical modelling as well as observation networks. However, certain discrepancies between results obtained by different methods are remained. The increasing of complexity in numerical weather modelling systems leads to enlarging a volume of output data and promises to reveal new aspects in complexity of interactions and feedbacks. The Harmonie-38h1.2 model with the AROME physical package is used to study changes in precipitation life-cycle under black carbon polluted conditions. A model configuration includes a radar data assimilation procedure on a high resolution domain covering the Scandinavia region. Model results show that precipitation rate and distribution as well as other variables of atmospheric dynamics and physics over the domain are sensitive to aerosol concentrations. The attention should also be paid to numerical aspects, such as a list of observation types involved in assimilation. The use of high resolution radar information allows to include mesoscale features in initial conditions and to decrease the growth rate of a model error with the lead time.

  5. Phase field simulation of precipitation in a Mg-Al alloy using two techniques of approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, G. M.; Han, Z. Q.; Luo, A. A.; Sachdev, A. K.; Liu, B. C.

    2012-07-01

    In this paper, the precipitation of β-Mg17Al12 in aging process of Mg-9%Al (mass fraction) alloy was studied using a diffuse-interface phase field model. In the model, the precipitate phase and the matrix are distinguished by a structural order parameter, and the interface region is assumed to be a mixture of the precipitate phase and the matrix. The mixture composition was calculated using a weighted average method. Two techniques of approximation for the chemical free energy of precipitate phase and matrix were employed, where the variation characteristics of the free energy with the mole fraction of solute were included. In the simulation, the temperature and diffusion mobility coefficient were assumed to be constant. The effects of the solution approximations on the morphology evolution and growth kinetics of the precipitate were discussed. The effects of the interface mobility coefficient on the interface growth kinetics were examined, and the effects of the interface anisotropy between the precipitate phase and the matrix on the morphology of the precipitate were also discussed. It is demonstrated that the solution approximation taking into account the interaction between atoms for a binary system provides a good description for the chemical free energy. The simulation results showed that the precipitate phase growing from a supersaturated solid solution has a plate-like shape, which is in agreement with experimental observations. The growth kinetics of the precipitate phase is significantly influenced by the interface mobility coefficient.

  6. The use of high-resolution atmospheric simulations over mountainous terrain for deriving error correction functions of satellite precipitation products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartsotas, Nikolaos S.; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Kallos, George

    2015-04-01

    Mountainous regions account for a significant part of the Earth's surface. Such areas are persistently affected by heavy precipitation episodes, which induce flash floods and landslides. The limitation of inadequate in-situ observations has put remote sensing rainfall estimates on a pedestal concerning the analyses of these events, as in many mountainous regions worldwide they serve as the only available data source. However, well-known issues of remote sensing techniques over mountainous areas, such as the strong underestimation of precipitation associated with low-level orographic enhancement, limit the way these estimates can accommodate operational needs. Even locations that fall within the range of weather radars suffer from strong biases in precipitation estimates due to terrain blockage and vertical rainfall profile issues. A novel approach towards the reduction of error in quantitative precipitation estimates lies upon the utilization of high-resolution numerical simulations in order to derive error correction functions for corresponding satellite precipitation data. The correction functions examined consist of 1) mean field bias adjustment and 2) pdf matching, two procedures that are simple and have been widely used in gauge-based adjustment techniques. For the needs of this study, more than 15 selected storms over the mountainous Upper Adige region of Northern Italy were simulated at 1-km resolution from a state-of-the-art atmospheric model (RAMS/ICLAMS), benefiting from the explicit cloud microphysical scheme, prognostic treatment of natural pollutants such as dust and sea-salt and the detailed SRTM90 topography that are implemented in the model. The proposed error correction approach is applied on three quasi-global and widely used satellite precipitation datasets (CMORPH, TRMM 3B42 V7 and PERSIANN) and the evaluation of the error model is based on independent in situ precipitation measurements from a dense rain gauge network (1 gauge / 70 km2

  7. Dependence of ion concentration in simulated body fluid on apatite precipitation on titania surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Akira; Nakano, Masayuki; Hieda, Junko; Ohtake, Naoto; Akasaka, Hiroki

    2015-08-01

    Titanium and its alloys are used as biomaterials, because of their high biocompatibility. Apatite precipitates on a titania surface in vivo, and living bone and titanium alloy are coupled through the thin apatite layer. The initial precipitation behavior of apatite on titania in simulated body fluid (SBF) solutions was evaluated and the effect of inorganic ions in the SBF was investigated. Measurement using the SPR phenomenon was used to evaluate the initial apatite precipitation. An SBF containing approximately equal ion concentrations to those in blood plasma was added to a titania surface and the SPR profile was obtained, from which the initial apatite precipitation rate was found to be 1.14 nm/h. Furthermore, the relationship between the inorganic concentration and the precipitation rate was determined for SBFs with different Na+ and Ca2+ concentrations. Apatite precipitation did not occur in the SBF with a low Na+ concentration, whereas the initial apatite precipitation rate in the SBF that did not contain Ca2+ was 0.32 nm/h. According to these results, Ca2+ has little effect on the initial apatite precipitation. In the initial reaction of apatite precipitation, sodium titanate is formed by the absorption of Na+. Next, calcium titanate precipitates upon the substitution of Na+ with Ca2+. Finally, Na+, phosphate ions and hydroxyl ions are attracted to the surface and apatite is formed. Thus, the rate-limiting factor in the initial nucleation of apatite is the Na+ concentration.

  8. Evaluation of summer precipitation from EURO-CORDEX fine-scale RCM simulations over Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Stordal, Frode; Lussana, Cristian

    2016-04-01

    Regional climate models is a valuable tool for local climate adaptation. Accurate estimates of future climate conditions are increasingly important, and in Norway precipitation is of special interest. Extreme precipitation, particularly over short durations, are responsible for enormous damages to important infrastructure, hence information on a fine spatial and temporal scale is crucial. We evaluate the ability of 7 fine-scale regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble in reproducing 3-hourly and daily summer precipitation characteristics in Norway, with an emphasis on extremes. The two-step evaluation includes comparison of modeled precipitation to gridded observation-based datasets and station measurements, in terms of the following indices: Summer maxima, summer wet event frequency, and total summer precipitation. We find a general overestimation by the models for all indices, with only few exceptions. Country-wide spatial averages show however that simulated summer extremes are mainly within the uncertainty interval of the reference dataset. A stronger overestimation of daily maxima compared to 3-hour maxima is evident, while the spread between models is larger for summer totals. We also find that the spatial distribution is fairly well simulated although the range of values in most models is too small. We believe that the high spatial resolution of 0.11° improves the simulations of extreme precipitation in Norway, especially in areas of orographic enhancement. However, a larger ensemble would be required in order to develop bias correction methods and analyse future projections of precipitation.

  9. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

    DOE PAGES

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

    2014-02-25

    Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less

  10. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

    SciTech Connect

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

    2014-02-25

    Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.

  11. Simulation of γ' Precipitation Kinetics in a Commercial Ni-Base Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fahrmann, M. G.; Metzler, D. A.

    2016-09-01

    The ability to accurately simulate the precipitation kinetics of γ' and other strengthening phases in Ni-base superalloys is of great interest to industry. Several commercial simulation tools such as TC-PRISMA (Thermo-Calc, Sweden) and PanPrecipitation (Computherm, USA) have been made available in recent years. This paper reports the outcome of a validation study on wrought Ni-base superalloy HAYNES® 282® alloy for two scenarios of commercial interest: (1) the precipitation of γ' during continuous cooling, and (2) the precipitation of γ' during two-step aging. The simulation results are validated against experimental data. Any discrepancies are discussed in the context of the uncertainty in key material properties (such as interfacial energies), model assumptions, and experimental errors.

  12. Comparison of the hydrological impact driven by RCM-, GCM- and NCEP- simulated and bias corrected precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Yukun; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chongyu; Hu, Kang

    2016-04-01

    Statistical downscaling methods are a common tool to compensate for the gaps between large-scale climate model simulations and station-scale observations. This study evaluates the performance of the raw precipitation from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), outputs of Global Climate Model (GCM)-NorESM and corresponding Regional Climate Model (RCM)-the East Asian regional climate model driven by WRF model driven with NorESM. Meanwhile, their bias-corrected series by four different bias correction methods are simultaneously evaluated in order to find whether NCEP with observation coupled or RCM with modified spatial distribution of surface climate can have a better performance than GCM on analyzing hydrological impact. The Xin'anjiang lumped hydrological model is used to assess the hydrological impacts by simulating the streamflows in Xiangjiang basin with the corresponding observed, model-simulated and bias-corrected precipitation as input. The results show that hydrological simulations using the RCM and NCEP historical precipitation do not have a better agreement with observed runoff than using raw GCM data as input in this case study. However, when the raw precipitation of climate models is bias-corrected, an obvious improvement is obtained from all the climate models, and the bias-corrected RCM precipitation gives the best fitness in the runoff simulations. Comparing different bias correction methods with the same climate model, the method with occurrence and intensity adjustment outperforms other methods in the runoff simulation. It can be inferred that without bias correction, it can be hardly concluded that NCEP or RCM brings an improvement of precipitation simulation from GCM for driving hydrological models. However, the RCM precipitation corrected by a proper bias correction method provides better runoff simulation results over other climate datasets.

  13. Information content of downscaled GCM precipitation variables for crop simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    A simple statistical downscaling procedure for transforming daily global climate model (GCM) rainfall was applied at the local scale in Katumani, Kenya. We corrected the rainfall frequency bias of the GCM by truncating its daily rainfall cumulative distribution into the station's distribution using a wet-day threshold. Then, we corrected the GCM's rainfall intensity bias by mapping its truncated rainfall distribution into the station's truncated distribution. Additional tailoring was made to the bias corrected GCM rainfall by linking it with a stochastic disaggregation scheme based on a conditional stochastic weather generator to correct the temporal structure inherent with daily GCM rainfall. Results of the simple and hybridized GCM downscaled precipitation variables (total, probability of occurrence, intensity and dry spell length) were linked with a crop model. An objective evaluation of the tailored GCM data was done using entropy. This study is useful for the identification of the most suitable downscaling technique, as well as the most effective precipitation variables for forecasting crop yields.

  14. Simulation of Drift-Compression for Heavy-Ion-Fusion

    SciTech Connect

    Sharp, W M; Barnard, J J; Grote, D P; Celata, C M; Yu, S S

    2005-03-16

    Lengthwise compression of space-charge-dominated beams is needed to obtain the high input power required for heavy-ion fusion. The ''drift-compression'' scenario studied here first applies a head-to-tail velocity variation with the beam tail moving faster than the head. As the beam drifts, the longitudinal space-charge field slows compression, leaving the beam nearly monoenergetic as it enters the final-focus magnets. This paper presents initial work to model this compression scenario. Fluid and particle simulations are compared, and several strategies for setting up the compression schedule are discussed.

  15. Approaches and Recommendations for Simulating Extreme Precipitation Years in Multi-site Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knapp, A.; Collins, S. L.; Dukes, J.; Loik, M. E.; Phillips, R.; Sala, O. E.; Smith, M.

    2015-12-01

    Worldwide, human activities are exposing all ecosystems to increases in atmospheric CO2, N and temperature. Precipitation also is being altered globally, but increases in precipitation variability and extremes are expected to have greater impacts on ecosystem function than changes in means. Determining how and why ecosystems differ in their sensitivity to precipitation extremes (i.e., drought) is key to forecasting future ecosystem structure and function at the global scale. Coordinated multi-site experiments can be invaluable for assessing differential sensitivity of ecosystems (deserts, grasslands, forests, etc.) to precipitation extremes. However, determining treatment levels in these experiments presents unique problems because extremes in precipitation are defined statistically, based on historical context, and thus can differ dramatically among sites. Therefore, while multi-site experiments with fixed treatment levels may be appropriate for assessing ecosystem sensitivity to CO2 or warming, they may provide less mechanistic insight for studying extremes. We propose that for multi-site experiments focused on variability and extremes, the amount of precipitation removed or added to impose precipitation extremes should be site-specific (not fixed across sites) and matched to the historical climate record. Further, because extreme wet and dry years differ from each other in other attributes (event size, number of events, consecutive dry days, etc.) treatments should incorporate realistic alterations in these precipitation attributes as well. We show that for most ecosystem types globally, experimental infrastructure that passively reduces each rainfall event can realistically simulate drought, with the addition of a few large precipitation events realistically simulating extreme wet years. Thus, while treatment levels required to impose extreme precipitation years should vary among ecosystems, alterations in precipitation attributes can be imposed uniformly.

  16. Change of the dynamics of heavy metals concentration in atmospheric precipitation in chatkal nature reservation of the republic of uzbekistan as anthropogenic index of the atmospheric pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnova, T.; Tolkacheva, G.

    2003-04-01

    At present the investigation of the chemical composition of precipitation is a very actual task in the monitoring of environmental pollution. It is known that heavy metals can be the indices of the anthropogenic atmospheric pollution. The emissions from the mining enterprises, of non-ferrous metallurgy, of chemical industry, from heat-and-power production plants, from transport vehicles fare the sources of the heavy metals ingress into the atmosphere. Their emissions in atmosphere form fine-disperse aerosol fractions and afterwards they fall down together with precipitation onto the underlying surface. Heavy metals have the property of accumulation in environmental objects, which disturbs its ecological balance. One of the problems of the study of the influence of heavy metals pollution on the environment is their travel with the air masses of different origin on large distance. In this concern it is interesting to study the content of the heavy metals in atmospheric aerosols and precipitation in the background zones. Chatkal nature reservation on the territory of Tashkent province presents such background point. For the estimation of the level of atmospheric pollution by heavy metals and evaluation of the possible impact on the background level of air pollution of Chatkal nature reservation by anthropogenic sources (industrial cities of the capital province of Uzbekistan) the data analysis was carried out by the Administration of Environment Pollution Monitoring (AEPM) of hydrometeorological service of the Republic of Uzbekistan. It is necessary to mention that Chatkal biospheric nature reservation is situated in 100 km from Tashkent (the capital of the Republic of Uzbekistan) and in 60 km from Almalyk (the biggest centre of mining-metallurgical and chemical industry of the republic). The station of the complex background monitoring of atmospheric pollution (SCBM) is situated on the territory of this nature reservation. This area is characterized by a typical

  17. Stochastic convective parameterization improving the simulation of tropical precipitation variability in the NCAR CAM5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yong; Zhang, Guang J.; Craig, George C.

    2016-06-01

    The Plant-Craig (PC) stochastic convective parameterization scheme is implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) to couple with the Zhang-McFarlane deterministic convection scheme. To evaluate its impact on tropical precipitation simulation, two experiments are conducted: one with the standard CAM5 and the other with the stochastic scheme incorporated. Results show that the PC stochastic parameterization decreases the frequency of weak precipitation and increases the frequency of strong precipitation, resulting in better agreement with observations. The most striking improvement is in the probability distribution function (PDF) of precipitation intensity, with the well-known too-much-drizzle problem in CAM5 largely eliminated. In the global tropical belt, the precipitation intensity PDF from the simulation agrees remarkably well with that of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations. The stochastic scheme also yields a similar magnitude of intraseasonal variability of precipitation to observations and improves the simulation of the eastward propagating intraseasonal signals of precipitation and zonal wind.

  18. A case study of proton precipitation at Mars: Mars Express observations and hybrid simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diéval, C.; Kallio, E.; Barabash, S.; Stenberg, G.; Nilsson, H.; Futaana, Y.; Holmström, M.; Fedorov, A.; Frahm, R. A.; Jarvinen, R.; Brain, D. A.

    2012-06-01

    Using the data from the Analyzer of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-3) experiment on board Mars Express and hybrid simulations, we have investigated the entry of protons into the Martian induced magnetosphere. We discuss one orbit on the dayside with observations of significant proton fluxes at altitudes down to 260 km on 27 February 2004. The protons observed below the induced magnetosphere boundary at an altitude of less than 700 km have energies of a few keV, travel downward, and precipitate onto the atmosphere. The measured energy flux and particle flux are 108-109 eV cm-2 s-1 and 105-106 H+ cm-2 s-1, respectively. The proton precipitation occurs because the Martian magnetosheath is small with respect to the heated proton gyroradius in the subsolar region. The data suggest that the precipitation is not permanent but may occur when there are transient increases in the magnetosheath proton temperature. The higher-energy protons penetrate deeper because of their larger gyroradii. The proton entry into the induced magnetosphere is simulated using a hybrid code. A simulation using a fast solar wind as input can reproduce the high energies of the observed precipitating protons. The model shows that the precipitating protons originate from both the solar wind and the planetary exosphere. The precipitation extends over a few thousand kilometers along the orbit of the spacecraft. The proton precipitation does not necessarily correlate with the crustal magnetic anomalies.

  19. The impacts of precipitating cloud radiative effects on ocean surface evaporation, precipitation, and ocean salinity in coupled GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.-L. F.; Wang, Yi-Hui; Lee, Tong; Waliser, Duane; Lee, Wei-Liang; Yu, Jia-Yuh; Chen, Yi-Chun; Fetzer, Eric; Hasson, Audrey

    2016-08-01

    The coupled global climate model (GCM) fidelity in representing upper ocean salinity including near sea surface bulk salinity (SSS) is evaluated in this study, with a focus on the Pacific Ocean. The systematic biases in ocean surface evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P) and SSS are found to be fairly similar in the twentieth century simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) relative to the observations. One of the potential causes of the CMIP model biases is the missing representation of the radiative effects of precipitating hydrometeors (i.e., snow) in most CMIP models. To examine the radiative effect of cloud snow on SSS, sensitivity experiments with and without such effect are conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study investigates the difference in SSS between sensitivity experiments and its relationship with atmospheric circulation, E - P and air-sea heat fluxes. It is found that the exclusion of the cloud snow radiative effect in CESM produces weaker Pacific trade winds, resulting in enhanced precipitation, reduced evaporation, and a reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. The latter results in an improved comparison with climatological upper ocean bulk salinity. The introduction of cloud snow also altered the budget terms that maintain the time-mean salinity in the mixed layer.

  20. HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash-flooding in Northwestern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ducrocq, Véronique

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is frequently affected by heavy precipitation events associated with flash-floods, landslides and mudslides each year that cost several billions of dollars in damage and causing too often casualties. Within the framework of the 10-year international HyMeX program dedicated to the hydrological cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean (http://www.hymex.org), a major field campaign has been dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash-floods from September to November 2012. The 2-month field campaign took place over the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea and its surrounding coastal regions in France, Italy and Spain. The observation strategy aimed at documenting four key components leading to heavy precipitation and flash-flooding in that region: (i) the marine atmospheric flow that transport moist and conditionaly unstable air towards the coasts; (ii) the Mediterranean Sea as a moisture and energy source; (iii) the dynamics and microphysics of the convective systems; (iv) the hydrological processes during flash-floods. During the field campaign about twenty precipitation events were monitored, including mesoscale convective systems, Mediterranean cyclogenesis, shallow-convection orographic precipitation. Three aircraft performed about 250 flight hours for a survey of the upstream flow, the air-sea fluxes and the convective systems. About 700 additional radiosoundings were launched either from HyMeX sites or from operational RS sites in Europe, as well as about 20 boundary layer balloons were launched to monitor the low-level flow over the Mediterranean Sea and the ambient atmospheric conditions. Gliders, Argo floats, drifting buoys and ocean soundings from vessels monitored the Mediterranean Sea during the field campaign. Atmospheric and hydrological instruments such as radars, LIDARS, radiometers, wind profilers, lightning sensors, were deployed over 5 regions in France, Italy and Spain. The presentation will present the general

  1. A quantitative assessment of precipitation associated with the ITCZ in the CMIP5 GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanfield, Ryan E.; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Su, Hui; Donner, Leo; Rotstayn, Leon; Wu, Tongwen; Cole, Jason; Shindo, Eiki

    2016-09-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report, the broad-scale features of precipitation as simulated by Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are in modest agreement with observations, however, large systematic errors are found in the Tropics. In this study, a new algorithm has been developed to define the North Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) through several metrics, including: the centerline position of the ITCZ, the width of the ITCZ, and the magnitude of precipitation along the defined ITCZ. These metrics provide a quantitative analysis of precipitation associated with the ITCZ over the equatorial northern Pacific. Results from 29 CMIP5 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) Global Circulation Model (GCM) runs are compared with Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Similarities and differences between the GCM simulations and observations are analyzed with the intent of quantifying magnitude-, location-, and width-based biases within the GCMs. Comparisons show that most of the GCMs tend to simulate a stronger, wider ITCZ shifted slightly northward compared to the ITCZ in GPCP and TRMM observations. Comparisons of CMIP and AMIP simulated precipitation using like-models were found to be nearly equally distributed, with roughly half of GCMs showing an increase (decrease) in precipitation when coupled (decoupled) from their respective ocean model. Further study is warranted to understand these differences.

  2. High resolution WRF simulation of the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, J.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.; Bookhagen, B.

    2015-12-01

    The Himalaya enhances and redistributes large-scale precipitation systems associated with winter storms, the Indian monsoon, and other relevant weather systems through the year. The resulting runoff across the Himalaya is depended on by over a billion people in south Asia for energy, agriculture, industry, and human consumption. However, the observation and understanding of regional precipitation patterns are limited on account of sparse in-situ meteorological data and complex topography. Additionally, the region's extreme elevations pose significant challenges for remotely sensed observation and global reanalyses in accurately representing precipitation. Mesoscale simulations are therefore the best available option to determine precipitation patterns and evaluate water resources in the Himalaya. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over High Asia for a single, continuous hydrological year at high resolution (6.7 km). The output is compared to available high-elevation rain gauges along the Himalaya, as well as gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and satellite cloud-mask data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to gauge the performance of the model in simulating the full annual range of precipitation systems over the Himalaya. WRF and TRMM show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation that appropriately represents climatic influences ranging from extratropical cyclones to the monsoon. Good agreement is also observed in the locations of precipitation maxima in transition months between the two regimes. WRF also compares well to daily in-situ precipitation throughout the year, with correlation coefficients generally at 0.5 and above, but decreasing for stations at increasingly high elevations. Diurnal cycles of precipitation during the monsoon are also similar between WRF and TRMM, with

  3. An assessment of monsoon precipitation changes during 1901-2001: Observation and Model Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, T.; Zhang, L.

    2010-12-01

    Changes of global land monsoon precipitation are examined by using three sets of rain-gauge precipitation data for the period of 1901-2001 compiled by GPCC, CRU and Dai, respectively. The three datasets show consistent long-term changes of precipitation over the monsoon region with slightly different amplitudes. During 1901-2001, global land monsoon precipitation (GMI) exhibits multi-decadal variations, with an overall increasing trend from 1901 to 1955, followed by a decreasing trend up to 2001. The upward trends during 1901-1955 of global and northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation are mainly resulted from the increased precipitation over the North African, Indian and East Asian monsoon domains. For the whole period of 1901-2001, precipitation averaged over the Northern Hemisphere and global land monsoon areas all exhibit a decreasing trends, although it is only statistically significant at the 5% level for the Northern Hemisphere. The robust decreasing trend of northern hemispheric land monsoon precipitations during the 20th century mainly comes from the downward trend of North African and eastern part of Indian monsoon precipitation and occurs mainly after the 1950s. The first leading mode of Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses of precipitation annual range features a coherent change of North African, South Asian, Northeast China, southern South African, eastern Australian and western American monsoon, and a coherent change over the equatorial South African monsoon and eastern American monsoon. The corresponding principal component time series also indicates that the majority of global land monsoon precipitation has experienced an increasing tendency from 1901 to 1950s and a decreasing trend since 1950s. The results of observational data diagnosis are compared with the results of AGCM simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature. Possible mechanisms for global land monsoon changes are discussed.

  4. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  5. Numerical Simulation of Solidification, Homogenization, and Precipitation in an Industrial Ni-Based Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rougier, Luc; Jacot, Alain; Gandin, Charles-André; Ponsen, Damien; Jaquet, Virginie

    2016-11-01

    A comprehensive simulation approach integrating solidification, homogenization, and precipitation during aging has been used to predict the formation of γ/ γ' microstructures in the AM1 nickel-based superalloy. The particle size distribution of intradendritic γ' precipitates after aging was calculated with a multicomponent diffusion model coupled with CALPHAD thermodynamics for the equilibrium at the interface. The influence of residual microsegregation after homogenization and quenching was analyzed through different initial conditions obtained from calculations of the concentration profiles in the primary γ dendritic microstructure during solidification and the homogenization heat treatment. While the global sequence of precipitation remains qualitatively the same, substantial differences in the final volume fraction of γ' precipitates were predicted between the core and the periphery of a former dendrite arm, for typical homogenization and aging conditions. To demonstrate the relevance of the developed simulation approach, the model was also used to investigate modified precipitation heat treatments. The simulations showed that relatively short heat treatments based on slow continuous cooling could potentially replace the extended isothermal heat treatments which are commonly used. Slow continuous cooling conditions can lead to similar γ' precipitates radii and volume fractions, the main differences with isothermal heat treatments lying in a narrower particle size distribution.

  6. Numerical Simulation of Solidification, Homogenization, and Precipitation in an Industrial Ni-Based Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rougier, Luc; Jacot, Alain; Gandin, Charles-André; Ponsen, Damien; Jaquet, Virginie

    2016-08-01

    A comprehensive simulation approach integrating solidification, homogenization, and precipitation during aging has been used to predict the formation of γ/γ' microstructures in the AM1 nickel-based superalloy. The particle size distribution of intradendritic γ' precipitates after aging was calculated with a multicomponent diffusion model coupled with CALPHAD thermodynamics for the equilibrium at the interface. The influence of residual microsegregation after homogenization and quenching was analyzed through different initial conditions obtained from calculations of the concentration profiles in the primary γ dendritic microstructure during solidification and the homogenization heat treatment. While the global sequence of precipitation remains qualitatively the same, substantial differences in the final volume fraction of γ' precipitates were predicted between the core and the periphery of a former dendrite arm, for typical homogenization and aging conditions. To demonstrate the relevance of the developed simulation approach, the model was also used to investigate modified precipitation heat treatments. The simulations showed that relatively short heat treatments based on slow continuous cooling could potentially replace the extended isothermal heat treatments which are commonly used. Slow continuous cooling conditions can lead to similar γ' precipitates radii and volume fractions, the main differences with isothermal heat treatments lying in a narrower particle size distribution.

  7. Simulating Electron Clouds in Heavy-Ion Accelerators

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, R.H.; Friedman, A.; Kireeff Covo, M.; Lund, S.M.; Molvik,A.W.; Bieniosek, F.M.; Seidl, P.A.; Vay, J-L.; Stoltz, P.; Veitzer, S.

    2005-04-07

    Contaminating clouds of electrons are a concern for most accelerators of positive-charged particles, but there are some unique aspects of heavy-ion accelerators for fusion and high-energy density physics which make modeling such clouds especially challenging. In particular, self-consistent electron and ion simulation is required, including a particle advance scheme which can follow electrons in regions where electrons are strongly-, weakly-, and un-magnetized. They describe their approach to such self-consistency, and in particular a scheme for interpolating between full-orbit (Boris) and drift-kinetic particle pushes that enables electron time steps long compared to the typical gyro period in the magnets. They present tests and applications: simulation of electron clouds produced by three different kinds of sources indicates the sensitivity of the cloud shape to the nature of the source; first-of-a-kind self-consistent simulation of electron-cloud experiments on the High-Current Experiment (HCX) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in which the machine can be flooded with electrons released by impact of the ion beam and an end plate, demonstrate the ability to reproduce key features of the ion-beam phase space; and simulation of a two-stream instability of thin beams in a magnetic field demonstrates the ability of the large-timestep mover to accurately calculate the instability.

  8. PM-GCD - a combined IR-MW satellite technique for frequent retrieval of heavy precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casella, D.; Dietrich, S.; di Paola, F.; Formenton, M.; Mugnai, A.; Porcù, F.; Sanò, P.

    2012-01-01

    Precipitation retrievals based on measurements from microwave (MW) radiometers onboard low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites can reach high level of accuracy - especially regarding convective precipitation. At the present stage though, these observations cannot provide satisfactory coverage of the evolution of intense and rapid precipitating systems. As a result, the obtained precipitation retrievals are often of limited use for many important applications - especially in supporting authorities for flood alerts and weather warnings. To tackle this problem, over the past two decades several techniques have been developed combining accurate MW estimates with frequent infrared (IR) observations from geosynchronous (GEO) satellites, such as the European Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). In this framework, we have developed a new fast and simple precipitation retrieval technique which we call Passive Microwave - Global Convective Diagnostic, (PM-GCD). This method uses MW retrievals in conjunction with the Global Convective Diagnostic (GCD) technique which discriminates deep convective clouds based on the difference between the MSG water vapor (6.2 μm) and thermal-IR (10.8 μm) channels. Specifically, MSG observations and the GCD technique are used to identify deep convective areas. These areas are then calibrated using MW precipitation estimates based on observations from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) radiometers onboard operational NOAA and Eumetsat satellites, and then finally propagated in time with a simple tracking algorithm. In this paper, we describe the PM-GCD technique, analyzing its results for a case study that refers to a flood event that struck the island of Sicily in southern Italy on 1-2 October 2009.

  9. SIMULATION OF INTENSE BEAMS FOR HEAVY ION FUSION

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, A

    2004-06-10

    Computer simulations of intense ion beams play a key role in the Heavy Ion Fusion research program. Along with analytic theory, they are used to develop future experiments, guide ongoing experiments, and aid in the analysis and interpretation of experimental results. They also afford access to regimes not yet accessible in the experimental program. The U.S. Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory and its collaborators have developed state-of-the art computational tools, related both to codes used for stationary plasmas and to codes used for traditional accelerator applications, but necessarily differing from each in important respects. These tools model beams in varying levels of detail and at widely varying computational cost. They include moment models (envelope equations and fluid descriptions), particle-in-cell methods (electrostatic and electromagnetic), nonlinear-perturbative descriptions (''{delta}f''), and continuum Vlasov methods. Increasingly, it is becoming clear that it is necessary to simulate not just the beams themselves, but also the environment in which they exist, be it an intentionally-created plasma or an unwanted cloud of electrons and gas. In this paper, examples of the application of simulation tools to intense ion beam physics are presented, including support of present-day experiments, fundamental beam physics studies, and the development of future experiments. Throughout, new computational models are described and their utility explained. These include Mesh Refinement (and its dynamic variant, Adaptive Mesh Refinement); improved electron cloud and gas models, and an electron advance scheme that allows use of larger time steps; and moving-mesh and adaptive-mesh Vlasov methods.

  10. Terascale simulations for heavy ion inertial fusion energy

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, A; Cohen, R H; Grote, D P; Sharp, W M; Celata, C M; Lee, E P; Vay, J-L; Davidson, R C; Kaganovich, I; Lee, W W; Qin, H; Welch, D R; Haber, I; Kishek, R A

    2000-06-08

    The intense ion beams in a heavy ion Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) driver and fusion chamber are non-neutral plasmas whose dynamics are largely dominated by space charge. We propose to develop a ''source-to-target'' Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) beam simulation capability: a description of the kinetic behavior of this complex, nonlinear system which is both integrated and detailed. We will apply this new capability to further our understanding of key scientific issues in the physics of ion beams for IFE. The simulations will entail self-consistent field descriptions that require interprocessor communication, but are scalable and will run efficiently on terascale architectures. This new capability will be based on the integration of three types of simulations, each requiring terascale computing: (1) simulations of acceleration and confinement of the space-charge-dominated ion beams through the driver (accelerator, pulse compression line, and final focusing system) which accurately describe their dynamics, including emittance growth (phase-space dilution) effects; these are particle-in-cell (PIC) models; (2) electromagnetic (EM) and magnetoinductive (Darwin) simulations which describe the beam and the fusion chamber environment, including multibeam, neutralization, stripping, beam and plasma ionization processes, and return current effects; and (3) highly detailed simulations (6f, multispecies PIC, continuum Vlasov), which can examine electron effects and collective modes in the driver and chamber, and can study halo generation with excellent statistics, to ensure that these effects do not disrupt the focusability of the beams. The code development will involve: (i) adaptation of existing codes to run efficiently on multi-SMP computers that use a hybrid of shared and distributed memory; (ii) development of new and improved numerical algorithms, e.g., averaging techniques that will afford larger timesteps; and (iii) incorporation of improved physics models (e.g., for self

  11. Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1995-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

  12. Effect of simulated acid precipitation on algal fixation of nitrogen and carbon dioxide in forest soils

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, F.H.; Alexander, M.

    1983-01-01

    Three forest soils from areas exposed to acid precipitation were incubated for 21 days in the light to enhance the development of indigenous algae. The rates of nitrogen fixation (acetylene reduction) in the light and dark were significantly less if the soils were treated with simulated rain at pH 3.5 than at pH 5.6. The inhibition increased with increasing amounts of simulated rain at pH 3.5. The fixation of CO/sub 2/ in the light was significantly less in the three soils following their exposure to simulated precipitation at pH 3.5 than to the same solutions at pH 5.6, and the extent of suppression rose with increasing amounts of synthetic rain. It is suggested that algae in terrestrial ecosystems may be especially susceptible to acid precipitation.

  13. Impact of AWiFS derived land use land cover on simulation of heavy rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karri, Srinivasarao; Gharai, Biswadip; Sai Krishna, S. V. S.; Rao, P. V. N.

    2016-05-01

    Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes are considered to be one of the most important factors affecting regional climate and are thus an area of public concern. The land surface plays a crucial role in boundary layer evolution and precipitation patterns thereby establishing the need for LU/LC inputs as a critical part of modeling systems. Inaccurate LU/LC information often leads to very large errors in surface energy fluxes thus leading to errors in boundary layer state. We have investigated an incident of heavy rainfall during August 2015 over West Bengal, India using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model by incorporating different LU/LC datasets, IRS P6 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) LU/LC data for 2012-13 and the default Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) derived USGS LU/LC data for 2001. In the present study, we have made a comparative assessment between AWiFS derived LU/LC and USGS LU/LC by incorporating these datasets as one of the lower boundary conditions over Indian region in WRF model version 3.5.1 to simulate, at 10km resolution, a heavy rainfall event associated with landfall of a cyclonic system over West Bengal. The results of the study suggested influence of LU/LC in occurrence of heavy rainfall with WRF model using AWiFS LU/LC showing more realistic simulation as AWiFS LU/LC is more up-to-date and features recent changes in LU/LC over India.

  14. Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong; Jiang, Jonathan H.

    2012-01-01

    One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

  15. Comparative analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models for simulating the daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun

    2015-05-01

    This study assesses the simulations of the daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and daily precipitation over China during the period 1990-1999, based on phase 3 and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5). Fourteen CMIP3 models and 14 CMIP5 models were investigated over eight regions across China. Skill scores quantifying the match between the simulated and observed probability density functions (PDFs) were applied to evaluate the performance of the models. For daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, the results revealed that CMIP3 and CMIP5 models captured the basic pattern of the observed PDFs in all regions. However, the probabilities at lower values were overestimated in most models. In all regions except the west of Northwest China (region 7), all CMIP5 models captured more than 80% of the observed PDFs. Compared with performance at the annual time scale, the models tended to perform relatively worse over the period June to August. The performances of the CMIP5 and CMIP3 models were not as good for daily precipitation as for daily temperature, and the skill scores for precipitation were generally lower than 0.7 in all regions. The amount of drizzle (daily precipitation < 5 mm) was overestimated notably in all regions. The amount of very heavy precipitation (daily precipitation ≥ 20 mm) tended to be underestimated in humid regions but overestimated in arid regions. Compared with CMIP3, CMIP5 models showed some improvements in the simulation of daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures, but there was a lack of apparent improvement for simulation of daily precipitation.

  16. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

  17. Differing Response of Extreme Precipitation to Changing Boundary Conditions in Simulations with Parametrized and Explicit Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Edmund; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies have shown that the representation of extreme precipitation in climate models is much more sensitive to model resolution than that of mean precipitation. With global and regional circulation models simulating both present and future climates at ever-increasing resolution, it is only a matter of time before convection resolving climate projections become the norm. In the meantime, regional climate models provide an efficient and inexpensive tool to assess what, if any, impact explicitly resolved convection may have on the representation of precipitation extremes in warmer climates with enhanced boundary forcings. To compare the response of precipitation extremes in models with parametrized and explicitly resolved convection to changing boundary forcings, we select the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk as a recent showcase example. The event was related to a slow moving low pressure system crossing the eastern Black Sea, advecting warm and moist air towards the coast. Two waves of convection resulted in precipitation totals that dwarfed all previous events in the instrumental record, dating back to the 1930s, and over 170 deaths. We carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments with a triply nested configuration of the WRF regional model, for a domain covering the eastern Black Sea. The event is simulated at 15 km, 3 km and 600 m resolution. The model's ability to reproduce the event with observed forcings is first verified, before a series of additional ensembles with altered boundary forcings, in our case sea surface temperature (SST), is created. These ensembles consist of subtracting (adding) the 1982 - 2012 trend in Black Sea SST from (to) the observed 2012 SST field in 20% increments, giving a total of 11 ensembles whose SST differ from the observed field by between -100% and +100% of the warming trend. Aggregating all data to the 15 km grid, we compare the responses of hourly precipitation maxima to incrementally

  18. Heavy Oil Process Monitor: Automated On-Column Asphaltene Precipitation and Re-Dissolution

    SciTech Connect

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani; Mark Sanderson

    2007-03-31

    An automated separation technique was developed that provides a new approach to measuring the distribution profiles of the most polar, or asphaltenic components of an oil, using a continuous flow system to precipitate and re-dissolve asphaltenes from the oil. Methods of analysis based on this new technique were explored. One method based on the new technique involves precipitation of a portion of residua sample in heptane on a polytetrafluoroethylene-packed (PTFE) column. The precipitated material is re-dissolved in three steps using solvents of increasing polarity: cyclohexane, toluene, and methylene chloride. The amount of asphaltenes that dissolve in cyclohexane is a useful diagnostic of the thermal history of oil, and its proximity to coke formation. For example, about 40 % (w/w) of the heptane asphaltenes from unpyrolyzed residua dissolves in cyclohexane. As pyrolysis progresses, this number decrease to below 15% as coke and toluene insoluble pre-coke materials appear. Currently, the procedure for the isolation of heptane asphaltenes and the determination of the amount of asphaltenes soluble in cyclohexane spans three days. The automated procedure takes one hour. Another method uses a single solvent, methylene chloride, to re-dissolve the material that precipitates on heptane on the PTFE-packed column. The area of this second peak can be used to calculate a value which correlates with gravimetric asphaltene content. Currently the gravimetric procedure to determine asphaltenes takes about 24 hours. The automated procedure takes 30 minutes. Results for four series of original and pyrolyzed residua were compared with data from the gravimetric methods. Methods based on the new on-column precipitation and re-dissolution technique provide significantly more detail about the polar constituent's oils than the gravimetric determination of asphaltenes.

  19. Process modelings and simulations of heavy castings and forgings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dianzhong; Sun, Mingyue; Wang, Pei; Kang, Xiuhong; Fu, Paixian; Li, Yiyi

    2013-05-01

    The Materials Process Modeling Division, IMR, CAS has been promoting for more than 10 years research activities on modeling and experimental studies on heavy castings and forgings. In this report, we highlight some selected achievements and impacts in this area: To satisfy domestic strategic requirements, such as nuclear and hydraulic power, marine projects and high speed rail, we have developed a number of casting and forging technologies, which combine advanced computing simulations, X-ray real time observation techniques and industrial-scaled trial experiments. These technologies have been successfully applied in various industrial areas and yielded a series of scientific and technological breakthroughs and innovation. Important examples of this strategic research include the hot-processing technologies of the Three Gorge water turbine runner, marine crankshaft manufacturers, backup rolls for hot rolling mills and the production of hundreds-ton steel ingot.

  20. Effect of additives on Hg2+ reduction and precipitation inhibited by sodium dithiocarbamate in simulated flue gas desulfurization solutions.

    PubMed

    Lu, Rongjie; Hou, Jiaai; Xu, Jiang; Tang, Tingmei; Xu, Xinhua

    2011-11-30

    Mercury (II) (Hg(2+)) ion can be reduced by aqueous S(IV) (sulfite and/or bisulfite) species, which leads to elemental mercury (Hg(0)) emissions in wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Numerous reports have demonstrated the high trapping efficiency of sodium dithiocarbamate over heavy metals. In this paper, a novel sodium dithiocarbamate, DTCR, was utilized as a precipitator to control Hg(2+) reduction and Hg(0) emission against S(IV) in FGD solutions. Results indicated that Hg(2+) reduction efficiency decreased dramatically while precipitation rate peaked at around 91.0% in consistence with the increment of DTCR dosage. Initial pH and temperature had great inhibitory effects on Hg(2+) reduction: the Hg(2+) removal rate gradually increased and reached a plateau along with the increment of temperature and initial pH value. Chloride played a key role in Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions. When Cl(-) concentration increased from 0 to 150 mM, Hg(2+) removal rate dropped from 93.84% to 86.05%, and the Hg(2+) reduction rate remained at a low level (<7.8%). SO(4)(2-), NO(3)(-) and other common metal ions would affect the efficiency of Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions in the simulated desulfurization solutions: Hg(2+) removal rate could always be above 90%, while Hg(2+) reduction rate was maintained at below 10%. The predominance of DTCR over aqueous S(IV), indicated by the results above, has wide industrial applications in FGD systems.

  1. Effect of additives on Hg2+ reduction and precipitation inhibited by sodium dithiocarbamate in simulated flue gas desulfurization solutions.

    PubMed

    Lu, Rongjie; Hou, Jiaai; Xu, Jiang; Tang, Tingmei; Xu, Xinhua

    2011-11-30

    Mercury (II) (Hg(2+)) ion can be reduced by aqueous S(IV) (sulfite and/or bisulfite) species, which leads to elemental mercury (Hg(0)) emissions in wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Numerous reports have demonstrated the high trapping efficiency of sodium dithiocarbamate over heavy metals. In this paper, a novel sodium dithiocarbamate, DTCR, was utilized as a precipitator to control Hg(2+) reduction and Hg(0) emission against S(IV) in FGD solutions. Results indicated that Hg(2+) reduction efficiency decreased dramatically while precipitation rate peaked at around 91.0% in consistence with the increment of DTCR dosage. Initial pH and temperature had great inhibitory effects on Hg(2+) reduction: the Hg(2+) removal rate gradually increased and reached a plateau along with the increment of temperature and initial pH value. Chloride played a key role in Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions. When Cl(-) concentration increased from 0 to 150 mM, Hg(2+) removal rate dropped from 93.84% to 86.05%, and the Hg(2+) reduction rate remained at a low level (<7.8%). SO(4)(2-), NO(3)(-) and other common metal ions would affect the efficiency of Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions in the simulated desulfurization solutions: Hg(2+) removal rate could always be above 90%, while Hg(2+) reduction rate was maintained at below 10%. The predominance of DTCR over aqueous S(IV), indicated by the results above, has wide industrial applications in FGD systems. PMID:21955657

  2. Simulation of present-day precipitation over India using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maurya, Rajesh Kumar Singh; Singh, G. P.

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the present paper is to examine the capability of the regional climate model version 3 (RegCM3) to simulate the annual as well as seasonal precipitation variability over the Indian subcontinent. RegCM3 has been run at 40 km horizontal resolution for the period of 1982-2006 continuously and model results were compared to the observed precipitation datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). Model evaluation has been done using different statistical methods like mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error, mean percentage error (MPE) and studied the spatial pattern of annual and seasonal variability and trend. Daily precipitation data at 1° × 1° grids of IMD have been used to study observed climatological means (both annual and seasonal), regression trends, interannual and intraseasonal variability over India from 1951 to 2007. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend over west coast of India, central India, hilly region of India and an increasing trend is found over the northwest India, peninsular India and northeast India. The temporal distribution of daily precipitation shows highest rainfall of 18 mm/day in mid July (in composite flood cases only) and 12 mm/day during August (in composite drought cases only). The RegCM3 simulated annual and seasonal precipitation variability is close to the observed IMD and CMAP over all India (AI). During winter and pre-monsoon season, the model has overestimated the mean precipitation while underestimated in summer and post-monsoon season. Overall, annual precipitation showed the deficiency of -22.44 % compared to IMD and -1.41 % compared to CMAP over India. To understand the possible cause of annual and seasonal precipitation biases over India and its six homogeneous regions, the vertical difference (model mines National Centre for Environmental Prediction; NCEP) fields of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and air

  3. Evaluation of the summer precipitation over China simulated by BCC_CSM model with different horizontal resolutions during the recent half century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Mengyun; Huang, Anning; Zhao, Yong; Zhou, Yang; Yang, Ben; Wu, Haomin

    2015-05-01

    The performance of Beijing Climate Center climate system model with different horizontal resolutions (BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution and BCC_CSM1.1 m with fine resolution) in simulating the summer precipitation over China during the recent half century is evaluated, and the possible underlying physical mechanisms related to the model biases are also further analyzed and discussed. Results show that increasing horizontal resolution does improve the summer precipitation simulation over most part of China especially in western China due to the more realistic description of the topography. However, the summer precipitation amount (PA) over eastern China characterized by monsoonal climates is much more underestimated in the finer resolution model. It is also noted that the improvement (deterioration) of the summer PA over western (eastern) China in BCC_CSM1.1 m model is mainly due to the better (worse) simulation of the moderate and heavy precipitation relative to BCC_CSM1.1 model. In addition, increasing model horizontal resolution can significantly improve the convective precipitation simulation especially over western China but shows very limited improvement in the large-scale precipitation simulation. The much more underestimated summer PA over eastern China in BCC_CSM1.1 m model relative to BCC_CSM1.1 model is due to the significantly reduced positive biases of the convective PA but few changes in the negative biases of the large-scale PA. Further mechanism analysis suggests that both the underestimated land-sea thermal contrast and the overestimated Western Pacific subtropical high result in much less northeastward water vapor transport and summer PA over eastern China in BCC_CSM1.1 m model than in BCC_CSM1.1 model.

  4. Simulated effects of temperature and precipitation change in several forest ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, D. W.; Susfalk, R. B.; Gholz, H. L.; Hanson, P. J.

    2000-08-01

    The Nutrient Cycling Model (NuCM) was used to investigate the effects of increased temperature (+4°C) and changing precipitation (increased and decreased) on biogeochemical cycling at six forest sites in the United States: a Picea rubens forest at Nolan Divide in the Great Smoky Mountains, North Carolina; mixed deciduous forests at Walker Branch, Tennessee and Coweeta, North Carolina; a Pinus taeda forest at Duke, North Carolina; a P. eliottii forest at Bradford, Florida; and a P. contorta/P. jeffreyii forest at Little Valley, Nevada. Simulations of increased temperature indicated increased evapotranspiration and reduced water flux. Simulations of changes in precipitation indicated disproportionately large variations in soil water flux because of the relative stability of evapotranspiration with changes in precipitation. Increased temperature caused N release from forest floors at all sites. At the N-saturated Nolan Divide site, this resulted in no change in N uptake or growth but increased soil solution Al and NO 3- and increased N leaching losses. At the N-limited sites, the release of N from the forest floor caused increased growth, and, in some cases, increased NO 3- leaching as well, indicating that N released from the forest floor was not efficiently taken up by the vegetation. Increased precipitation caused increased growth, and decreased precipitation caused reduced growth in the N-limited sites because of changes in wet N deposition. Changes in precipitation had no effect on growth in the N-saturated Nolan Divide site, but did cause large changes in soil solution mineral acid anion and Al concentrations. Increased precipitation caused long-term decreases in soil exchangeable base cations in most cases because of the disproportionately large effects on soil water flux; however, increased precipitation caused decreases in exchangeable base cations in cases where atmospheric deposition was a major source of base cations for the system. The simulation results

  5. Colloidal precipitates related to Acid Mine Drainage: bacterial diversity and micro fungi-heavy metal interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucchetti, G.; Carbone, C.; Consani, S.; Zotti, M.; Di Piazza, S.; Pozzolini, M.; Giovine, M.

    2015-12-01

    In Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) settings colloidal precipitates control the mobility of Potential Toxic Elements (PTEs). Mineral-contaminant relationships (i.e. adsorption, ion-exchange, desorption) are rarely pure abiotic processes. Microbes, mainly bacteria and microfungi, can catalyze several reactions modifying the element speciation, as well as the bioavailability of inorganic pollutants. Soil, sediments, and waters heavily polluted with PTEs through AMD processes are a potential reservoir of extremophile bacteria and fungi exploitable for biotechnological purposes. Two different AMD related colloids, an ochraceous precipitate (deposited in weakly acidic conditions, composed by nanocrystalline goethite) and a greenish-blue precipitate (deposited at near-neutral pH, composed by allophane + woodwardite) were sampled. The aims of this work were to a) characterize the mycobiota present in these colloidal minerals by evaluating the presence of alive fungal propagules and extracting bacteria DNA; b) verify the fungal strains tolerance, and bioaccumulation capability on greenish-blue and ZnSO4 enriched media; c) evaluate potential impact of bacteria in the system geochemistry. The preliminary results show an interesting and selected mycobiota able to survive under unfavourable environmental conditions. A significant number of fungal strains were isolated in pure culture. Among them, species belonging to Penicillium and Trichoderma genera were tested on both greenish-blue and ZnSO4 enriched media. The results show a significant tolerance and bioaccumulation capability to some PTEs. The same colloidal precipitates were processed to extract bacteria DNA by using a specific procedure developed for sediments. The results give a good yield of nucleic acids and a positive PCR amplification of 16S rDNA accomplished the first step for future metagenomic analyses.

  6. Simulations of The Extreme Precipitation Event Enhanced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hakan Doǧan, Onur; Önol, Barış

    2016-04-01

    Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using regional climate model, RegCM4. The flood caused by excessive rain in August 26, 2010 killed 12 people and the landslides in Rize province have damaged many buildings. The station based two days total precipitation exceeds 200 mm. One of the usual suspects for this extreme event is positive anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea where the significant warming trend is clear in the last three decades. In August 2010, the monthly mean SST is higher than 3 °C with respect to the period of 1981-2010. We designed three sensitivity simulations with RegCM4 to define the effects of the Black Sea as a moisture source. The simulation domain with 10-km horizontal resolution covers all the countries bordering the Black Sea and simulation period is defined for entire August 2010. It is also noted that the spatial variability of the precipitation produced by the reference simulation (Sim-0) is consistent with the TRMM data. In terms of analysis of the sensitivity to SST, we forced the simulations by subtracting 1 °C (Sim-1), 2 °C (Sim-2) and 3 °C (Sim-3) from the ERA-Interim 6-hourly SST data (considering only the Black Sea). The sensitivity simulations indicate that daily total precipitation for all these simulations gradually decreased based on the reference simulation (Sim-0). 3-hourly maximum precipitation rates for Sim-0, Sim-1, Sim-2 and Sim-3 are 32, 25, 13 and 10.5 mm respectively over the hotspot region. Despite the fact that the simulations signal points out the same direction, degradation of the precipitation intensity does not indicate the same magnitude for all simulations. It is revealed that 2 °C (Sim-2) threshold is critical for SST sensitivity. We also calculated the humidity differences from the simulation and these

  7. [Variations and simulation of stable isotopes in precipitation in the Heihe River basin].

    PubMed

    Wu, Jin-Kui; Yang, Qi-Yue; Ding, Yong-Jian; Ye, Bai-Sheng; Zhang, Ming-Quan

    2011-07-01

    To study the variations of deltaD and delta18O in precipitation, 301 samples were sampled during 2002-2004 in 6 sites in the Heihe River basin, Northwestern China. The deltaD and delta18O values ranged from 59 per thousand to -254 per thousand and 6.5 per thousand to -33.4 per thousand, respectively. This wide range indicated that stable isotopes in precipitation were controlled by different condensation mechanisms as a function of air temperature and varying sources of moisture. delta18O in precipitation had a close positive relationship with the air temperature, i. e., a clear temperature effect existed in this area. At a monthly scale, no precipitation effect existed. On the other hand, a weak precipitation effect still accrued at precipitation events scale. The spatial variation of delta18O showed that the weighted average delta18O values decreased with the increasing altitude of sampling sites at a gradient of -0. 47 per thousand/100m. A regional Meteoric Water Line, deltaD = 7.82 delta18O + 7.63, was nearly identical to the Meteoric Water Line in the Northern China. The results of backward trajectory of each precipitation day at Xishui showed that the moisture of the precipitation in cold season (October to March) mainly originated from the west while the moisture source was more complicated in warm season (April to September). The simulation of seasonal delta18O variation showed that the stable isotope composition of precipitation tended to a clear sine-wave seasonal variation. PMID:21922801

  8. A multimodel intercomparison of resolution effects on precipitation: simulations and theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauscher, Sara A.; O'Brien, Travis A.; Piani, Claudio; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo; Collins, William D.; Lawston, Patricia M.

    2016-10-01

    An ensemble of six pairs of RCM experiments performed at 25 and 50 km for the period 1961-2000 over a large European domain is examined in order to evaluate the effects of resolution on the simulation of daily precipitation statistics. Application of the non-parametric two-sample Kolmorgorov-Smirnov test, which tests for differences in the location and shape of the probability distributions of two samples, shows that the distribution of daily precipitation differs between the pairs of simulations over most land areas in both summer and winter, with the strongest signal over southern Europe. Two-dimensional histograms reveal that precipitation intensity increases with resolution over almost the entire domain in both winter and summer. In addition, the 25 km simulations have more dry days than the 50 km simulations. The increase in dry days with resolution is indicative of an improvement in model performance at higher resolution, while the more intense precipitation exceeds observed values. The systematic increase in precipitation extremes with resolution across all models suggests that this response is fundamental to model formulation. Simple theoretical arguments suggest that fluid continuity, combined with the emergent scaling properties of the horizontal wind field, results in an increase in resolved vertical transport as grid spacing decreases. This increase in resolution-dependent vertical mass flux then drives an intensification of convergence and resolvable-scale precipitation as grid spacing decreases. This theoretical result could help explain the increasingly, and often anomalously, large stratiform contribution to total rainfall observed with increasing resolution in many regional and global models.

  9. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Wu, Tongwen; Huang, Anning; Fang, Yongjie

    2015-07-15

    In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increased precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.

  10. Experimental and numerical simulation of dissolution and precipitation: implications for fracture sealing at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Patrick F; Kneafsey, Timothy J; Sonnenthal, Eric L; Spycher, Nicolas; Apps, John A

    2003-01-01

    Plugging of flow paths caused by mineral precipitation in fractures above the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada could reduce the probability of water seeping into the repository. As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation under anticipated temperature and pressure conditions in the repository. To replicate mineral dissolution by vapor condensate in fractured tuff, water was flowed through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94 degrees C. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/l; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state mineralized water was flowed into a vertically oriented planar fracture in a block of welded Topopah Spring Tuff that was maintained at 80 degrees C at the top and 130 degrees C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal with amorphous silica within 5 days.A 1-D plug-flow numerical model was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a similar model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The mineral precipitation simulations predicted the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a greater than 50-fold decrease in fracture permeability in 5 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment.These results help validate the use of a numerical model to simulate THC processes at Yucca Mountain. The experiment and simulations indicated that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local

  11. Experimental and numerical simulation of dissolution and precipitation: implications for fracture sealing at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Patrick F; Kneafsey, Timothy J; Sonnenthal, Eric L; Spycher, Nicolas; Apps, John A

    2003-01-01

    Plugging of flow paths caused by mineral precipitation in fractures above the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada could reduce the probability of water seeping into the repository. As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation under anticipated temperature and pressure conditions in the repository. To replicate mineral dissolution by vapor condensate in fractured tuff, water was flowed through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94 degrees C. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/l; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state mineralized water was flowed into a vertically oriented planar fracture in a block of welded Topopah Spring Tuff that was maintained at 80 degrees C at the top and 130 degrees C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal with amorphous silica within 5 days.A 1-D plug-flow numerical model was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a similar model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The mineral precipitation simulations predicted the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a greater than 50-fold decrease in fracture permeability in 5 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment.These results help validate the use of a numerical model to simulate THC processes at Yucca Mountain. The experiment and simulations indicated that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local

  12. Experimental and numerical simulation of dissolution and precipitation: implications for fracture sealing at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobson, Patrick F.; Kneafsey, Timothy J.; Sonnenthal, Eric L.; Spycher, Nicolas; Apps, John A.

    2003-05-01

    Plugging of flow paths caused by mineral precipitation in fractures above the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada could reduce the probability of water seeping into the repository. As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation under anticipated temperature and pressure conditions in the repository. To replicate mineral dissolution by vapor condensate in fractured tuff, water was flowed through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94 °C. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/l; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state mineralized water was flowed into a vertically oriented planar fracture in a block of welded Topopah Spring Tuff that was maintained at 80 °C at the top and 130 °C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal with amorphous silica within 5 days. A 1-D plug-flow numerical model was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a similar model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The mineral precipitation simulations predicted the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a greater than 50-fold decrease in fracture permeability in 5 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment. These results help validate the use of a numerical model to simulate THC processes at Yucca Mountain. The experiment and simulations indicated that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local scale. However

  13. Mineral Dissolution and Secondary Precipitation on Quartz Sand in Simulated Hanford Tank Solutions Affecting Subsurface Porosity

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Guohui; Um, Wooyong

    2012-11-23

    Highly alkaline nuclear waste solutions have been released from underground nuclear waste storage tanks and pipelines into the vadose zone at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in Washington, causing mineral dissolution and re-precipitation upon contact with subsurface sediments. High pH caustic NaNO3 solutions with and without dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand through flow-through columns stepwise at 45, 51, and 89°C to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste solution and primary subsurface mineral. Upon reaction, Si was released from the dissolution of quartz sand, and nitrate-cancrinite [Na8Si6Al6O24(NO3)2] precipitated on the quartz surface as a secondary mineral phase. Both steady-state dissolution and precipitation kinetics were quantified, and quartz dissolution apparent activation energy was determined. Mineral alteration through dissolution and precipitation processes results in pore volume and structure changes in the subsurface porous media. In this study, the column porosity increased up to 40.3% in the pure dissolution column when no dissolved Al was present in the leachate, whereas up to a 26.5% porosity decrease was found in columns where both dissolution and precipitation were observed because of the presence of Al in the input solution. The porosity change was also confirmed by calculation using the dissolution and precipitation rates and mineral volume changes.

  14. Global cloud and precipitation chemistry and wet deposition: tropospheric model simulations with ECHAM5/MESSy1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, H.; Jöckel, P.; Kerkweg, A.; Pozzer, A.; Sander, R.; Lelieveld, J.

    2007-01-01

    The representation of cloud and precipitation chemistry and subsequent wet deposition of trace constituents in global atmospheric chemistry models is associated with large uncertainties. To improve the simulated trace gas distributions we apply the new submodel SCAV, which includes detailed cloud and precipitation chemistry and present results of the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1. A good agreement with observed wet deposition fluxes for species causing acid rain is obtained. The new scheme enables prognostic calculations of the pH of clouds and precipitation, and these results are also in accordance with observations. We address the influence of detailed cloud and precipitation chemistry on trace constituents based on sensitivity simulations. The results confirm previous results from regional scale and box models, and we extend the analysis to the role of aqueous phase chemistry on the global scale. Some species are directly affected through multiphase removal processes, and many also indirectly through changes in oxidant concentrations, which in turn have an impact on the species lifetime. While the overall effect on tropospheric ozone is relatively small (<10%), regional effects on O3 can reach ~20%, and several important compounds (e.g., H2O2, HCHO) are substantially depleted by clouds and precipitation.

  15. A numerical simulation of the distribution of acid precipitation in Chongqing area of China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lei, Xiao'en; Jia, Xinyuan; Yuan, Suzhen; Luo, Qiren; Chen, Silong; Xu, Yu

    1987-09-01

    A numerical model for the study of the regional acid precipitation is developed. The model consists of five parts: the distribution patterns of SO2 concentration, the mesoscale flow fields, the parameterization of SO2 transformation into SO{4/-}, the parameterization of precipitation scavenging process, and the relationship between SO2 content in precipitation and ground level concentration of SO2 in the air. The distribution of SO2, SO{2/-} and pH for all precipitations in Chongqing area during the period of July to October 1982 are simulated with the model. A comparison of the simulated results with experimental data shows that high SO2 concentration centres correspond to low pH centres. The source of the acid rain in Chongqing area is local air pollution which is due to the lower effective stack height, low wind velocity in the area, basin topography, and the use of coal with high sulphur content. The mechanism for the formation of the acid precipitation here may be different from that in the United States of America and the Western Europe, where acid rain appears in the area far from pollution source.

  16. Global cloud and precipitation chemistry and wet deposition: tropospheric model simulations with ECHAM5/MESSy1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tost, H.; Jöckel, P.; Kerkweg, A.; Pozzer, A.; Sander, R.; Lelieveld, J.

    2007-05-01

    The representation of cloud and precipitation chemistry and subsequent wet deposition of trace constituents in global atmospheric chemistry models is associated with large uncertainties. To improve the simulated trace gas distributions we apply the new submodel SCAV, which includes detailed cloud and precipitation chemistry and present results of the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1. A good agreement with observed wet deposition fluxes for species causing acid rain is obtained. The new scheme enables prognostic calculations of the pH of clouds and precipitation, and these results are also in accordance with observations. We address the influence of detailed cloud and precipitation chemistry on trace constituents based on sensitivity simulations. The results confirm previous results from regional scale and box models, and we extend the analysis to the role of aqueous phase chemistry on the global scale. Some species are directly affected through multiphase removal processes, and many also indirectly through changes in oxidant concentrations, which in turn have an impact on the species lifetime. While the overall effect on tropospheric ozone is relatively small (<10%), regional effects on O3 can reach ≍20%, and several important compounds (e.g., H2O2, HCHO) are substantially depleted by clouds and precipitation.

  17. Computer simulation of VC precipitation at moving [gamma]/[alpha] interfaces

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, W.J. . Metals Technology Lab.)

    1993-10-01

    A computer simulation technique was developed on the basis of the interaction between carbide precipitation and moving [gamma]/[alpha] interfaces for predicting both the interphase precipitation kinetics and the microstructural evolution during austenite-to-ferrite transformation. Theoretical models for the calculation of the driving and pinning forces exerted on a moving interface boundary are described. The variations of the two forces lead to a phenomenon of periodic pinning and unpinning of the interface and, in turn, the characteristic microstructure of parallel sheet particles which is often associated with the interphase precipitation. The experimental data reported for a series of V-bearing steels were analyzed using the computer simulation technique. Three unknown physical parameters, i.e., the thickness of an incoherent interface or the height of the ledge of a coherent interface, the diffusion coefficient of V at the [gamma]/[alpha] interface, and the coherence loss parameter of a VC nucleus, were determined. The calculated intersheet spacing, precipitate size, and precipitation start time all show a good correlation with the experimental observations.

  18. Lagged effects of the Mistral wind on heavy precipitation through ocean-atmosphere coupling in the region of Valencia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthou, Ségolène; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe; Arsouze, Thomas; Bastin, Sophie; Béranger, Karine; Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy

    2016-05-01

    The region of Valencia in Spain has historically been affected by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These HPEs are known to be modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Balearic Sea. Using an atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, we show that more than 70 % of the HPEs in the region of Valencia present a SST cooling larger than the monthly trend in the Northwestern Mediterranean before the HPEs. This is linked to the breaking of a Rossby wave preceding the HPEs: a ridge-trough pattern at mid-levels centered over western France associated with a low-level depression in the Gulf of Genoa precedes the generation of a cut-off low over southern Spain with a surface depression over the Alboran Sea in the lee of the Atlas. This latter situation is favourable to the advection of warm and moist air towards the Mediterranean Spanish coast, possibly leading to HPEs. The depression in the Gulf of Genoa generates intense northerly (Mistral) to northwesterly (Tramontane/Cierzo) winds. In most cases, these intense winds trigger entrainment at the bottom of the oceanic mixed layer which is a mechanism explaining part of the SST cooling in most cases. Our study suggests that the SST cooling due to this strong wind regime then persists until the HPEs and reduces the precipitation intensity.

  19. An assessment of improvements in global monsoon precipitation simulation in FGOALS-s2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lixia; Zhou, Tianjun

    2014-01-01

    The performance of Version 2 of the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS-s2) in simulating global monsoon precipitation (GMP) was evaluated. Compared with FGOALS-s1, higher skill in simulating the annual modes of climatological tropical precipitation and interannual variations of GMP are seen in FGOALS-s2. The simulated domains of the northwestern Pacific monsoon (NWPM) and North American monsoon are smaller than in FGOALS-s1. The main deficiency of FGOALS-s2 is that the NWPM has a weaker monsoon mode and stronger negative pattern in spring-fall asymmetric mode. The smaller NWPM domain in FGOALS-s2 is due to its simulated colder SST over the western Pacific warm pool. The relationship between ENSO and GMP is simulated reasonably by FGOALS-s2. However, the simulated precipitation anomaly over the South African monsoon region-South Indian Ocean during La Niña years is opposite to the observation. This results mainly from weaker warm SST anomaly over the maritime continent during La Niña years, leading to stronger upper-troposphere (lower-troposphere) divergence (convergence) over the Indian Ocean, and artificial vertical ascent (descent) over the Southwest Indian Ocean (South African monsoon region), inducing local excessive (deficient) rainfall. Comparison between the historical and pre-industrial simulations indicated that global land monsoon precipitation changes from 1901 to the 1970s were caused by internal variation of climate system. External forcing may have contributed to the increasing trend of the Australian monsoon since the 1980s. Finally, it shows that global warming could enhance GMP, especially over the northern hemispheric ocean monsoon and southern hemispheric land monsoon.

  20. Observations and Model Simulations of Transport and Precipitation Development in a Seeded Cumulus Congestus Cloud.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huston, Michael W.; Detwiler, Andrew G.; Kopp, Fred J.; Stith, Jeffrey L.

    1991-10-01

    Observations made by three instrumented aircraft, a Doppler radar, and other data sources were used to follow the initiation and development of precipitation in a small cumulus congestus cloud. The cloud was seeded at its base using an airborne silver iodide solution burner. Sulfur hexafluoride tracer gas was released along with the seeding material. Analyzers on two instrumented aircraft detected the tracer gas during subsequent cloud penetrations as it was carried up into the cloud along with the seeding agent. Ice developed initially in the upper regions of the cloud near the 10°C level 15 min after the commencement of seeding. This is consistent with primary nucleation by the seeding agent. The cloud developed millimeter-size graupel within the following few minutes. A radar echo approaching 40 dBZ subsequently developed. The echo was observed to descend through the cloud as the cloud dissipated.One-dimensional, steady-state and two-dimensional, time-dependent bulk water models were used to simulate this cloud. The one-dimensional model produced realistic values for updraft speeds allowing credible estimates of time required for transport from cloud base to upper regions of the cloud. The development of precipitation in the two-dimensional simulation resembled that in the observed cloud. Precipitation developed through riming of snow to graupel. In both the observed and simulated clouds, precipitation development was limited by cloud lifetime. Both clouds collapsed at a time when they were still generating ample supercooled water in their updrafts. Total precipitation on the ground from the seeded cloud simulations was 5 times the radar estimated rainfall total of 0.5 mm from the observed seeded cloud. This occurred despite the fact that the simulated cloud went through an accelerated life cycle compared to the observed cloud. A comparison between simulations with a natural ice process and with cloud base release of silver iodide shows that seeding accelerated

  1. Atmospheric Moisture Budget and Spatial Resolution Dependence of Precipitation Extremes in Aquaplanet Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Qing; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Rauscher, Sara; Ringler, Todd; Taylor, Mark

    2014-05-01

    This study investigates the resolution dependency of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet framework. Strong resolution dependency of precipitation extremes is seen over both tropics and extra-tropics, and the magnitude of this dependency also varies with dynamical cores. Moisture budget analyses based on aqua-planet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and High Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) dynamical cores but the same physics parameterizations suggest that during precipitation extremes moisture supply for surface precipitation is mainly derived from advective moisture convergence. The resolution dependency of precipitation extremes mainly originates from advective moisture transport in the vertical direction. At most vertical levels over the tropics and in the lower atmosphere over the subtropics, the vertical eddy transport of mean moisture field dominates the contribution to precipitation extremes and its resolution dependency. Over the subtropics, the source of moisture, its associated energy, and the resolution dependency during extremes are dominated by eddy transport of eddies moisture at the mid- and upper-troposphere. With both MPAS and HOMME dynamical cores, the resolution dependency of the vertical advective moisture convergence is mainly explained by dynamical changes (related to vertical velocity or omega), although the vertical gradients of moisture act like averaging kernels to determine the sensitivity of the overall resolution dependency to the changes in omega at different vertical levels. The natural reduction of variability with coarser resolution, represented by areal data averaging (aggregation) effect, largely explains the resolution dependency in omega. The thermodynamic changes, which likely result from non-linear feedback in response to the large dynamical changes, are small compared to the overall changes in dynamics (omega). However, after excluding the

  2. Precipitation-Runoff Simulations of Current and Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, D. Matthew

    2003-01-01

    Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of annual mean streamflow as a percentage of measured annual mean streamflow for the 10-year calibration period at six of the seven streamflow-gaging stations ranged from -35.2 to +26.2 percent, with 65 percent of the simulated values within 15 percent. One station was intentionally calibrated to over-simulate discharge (simulated discharge greater than measured discharge) in order to compensate for observed channel losses not simulated by the model. Simulation of water years 1960-2001 demonstrated great variability in monthly

  3. Performance Metrics for Climate Model Evaluation: Application to CMIP5 Precipitation Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

    2013-12-01

    Validation of gridded climate model simulations is fundamental to future improvements in model developments. Among the metrics, the contingency table, which includes a number of categorical indices, is extensively used in evaluation studies. While the categorical indices offer invaluable information, they do not provide any insight into the volume of the variable detected correctly/incorrectly. In this study, the contingency table categorical metrics are extended to volumetric indices for evaluation of gridded data. The suggested indices include (a) Volumetric Hit Index (VHI): volume of correctly detected simulations relative to the volume of the correctly detected simulations and missed observations; (b) Volumetric False Alarm Ratio (VFAR): volume of false simulations relative to the sum of simulations; (c) Volumetric Miss Index (VMI): volume of missed observations relative to the sum of missed observations and correctly detected simulations; and (d) the Volumetric Critical Success Index (VCSI). The latter provides an overall measure of volumetric performance including volumetric hits, false alarms and misses. Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data using the proposed performance metrics, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi

  4. Toward the credibility of Northeast United States summer precipitation projections in CMIP5 and NARCCAP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, A.

    2015-10-01

    Precipitation projections for the northeast United States and nearby Canada (Northeast) are examined for 15 Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. A process-based evaluation of atmospheric circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers is performed to examine whether credibility can be differentiated within the multimodel ensemble. Based on these evaluations, and an analysis of the interannual statistical properties of area-averaged precipitation, model subsets were formed. Multimodel precipitation projections from each subset were compared to the multimodel projection from all of the models. Higher-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate models (RCMs) were subjected to a similar evaluation, grouping into subsets, and examination of future projections. CMIP5 models adequately simulate most large-scale circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers, though all have errors in simulating observed sea level pressure and moisture divergence anomalies in the western tropical Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. Relevant large-scale processes simulated by the RCMs resemble those of their driving global climate models (GCMs), which are not always realistic. Future RCM studies could benefit from a process analysis of potential driving GCMs prior to dynamical downscaling. No CMIP5 or NARCCAP models were identified as clearly more credible, but six GCMs and four RCMs performed consistently better. Among the "Better" models, there is no consistency in the direction of future summer precipitation change. CMIP5 projections suggest that the Northeast precipitation response depends on the dynamics of the North Atlantic anticyclone and associated circulation and moisture convergence patterns, which vary among "Better" models. Even when model credibility cannot be clearly differentiated, examination of simulated processes provides important insights into their evolution under

  5. Preparation and Heat-Treatment of DWPF Simulants With and Without Co-Precipitated Noble Metals

    SciTech Connect

    Koopman, David C.:Eibling, Russel E

    2005-08-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory is in the process of investigating factors suspected of impacting catalytic hydrogen generation in the Chemical Process Cell of the Defense Waste Processing Facility, DWPF. Noble metal catalyzed hydrogen generation in simulation work constrains the allowable acid addition operating window in DWPF. This constraint potentially impacts washing strategies during sludge batch preparation. It can also influence decisions related to the addition of secondary waste streams to a sludge batch. Noble metals have historically been added as trim chemicals to process simulations. The present study investigated the potential conservatism that might be present from adding the catalytic species as trim chemicals to the final sludge simulant versus co-precipitating the noble metals into the insoluble sludge solids matrix. Parallel preparations of two sludge simulants targeting the composition of Sludge Batch 3 were performed in order to evaluate the impact of the form of noble metals. Identical steps were used except that one simulant had dissolved palladium, rhodium, and ruthenium present during the precipitation of the insoluble solids. Noble metals were trimmed into the other stimulant prior to process tests. Portions of both sludge simulants were held at 97 C for about eight hours to qualitatively simulate the effects of long term storage on particle morphology and speciation. The simulants were used as feeds for Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank, SRAT, process simulations. The following conclusions were drawn from the simulant preparation work: (1) The first preparation of a waste slurry simulant with co-precipitated noble metals was successful, based on the data obtained. It appears that 99+% of the noble metals were retained in the simulant. (2) Better control of carbonate, hydroxide, and post-wash trim chemical additions is needed before the new method of simulant preparation will be as reproducible as the old method. (3) The two new

  6. Size and distribution prediction for nanoparticles produced by microemulsion precipitation: A Monte Carlo simulation study.

    PubMed

    Voigt, Andreas; Adityawarman, Dendy; Sundmacher, Kai

    2005-07-01

    A Monte Carlo simulation approach for BaSO(4) nanoparticle precipitation in microemulsions has been applied to a semi-batch reactor experiment. The simulation includes two technical process parameters, the feed rate and the initial volume ratio of the two reactants. A set of experiments with different initial reactant concentrations of BaCl(2) and K(2)SO(4) showed a significant change in the particle size. It was compared to the simulated final particle size and with an adaptation of one internal parameter of the Monte Carlo simulation a good agreement between simulated and experimental data was achieved. Using this set of parameters the feed rate and the initial volume ratio is varied. It is shown how these process parameters influence the particle size and the size distribution. The simulation results may help in finding appropriate control parameters in a scale-up approach of the microemulsion technology for nanoparticle production.

  7. An evaluation of precipitation extremes over the Euro-Mediterranean region simulated by CORDEX RCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toreti, Andrea; Jogesh Babu, G.

    2015-04-01

    The achievement of a better understanding and characterisation of precipitation extremes is very important due to the high impacts of these events on human and natural systems. Here, we analyse daily precipitation excesses simulated over the Euro-Mediterranean region in autumn (September-November), winter (December-February) and spring (March-April) by four regional climate models (ERA-Interim driven) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative in the period 1989-2009. The applied approach is mainly based on tools from the Extreme Value Theory and on a novel procedure to assess the reliability of the estimations. Results show that the four models agree on the main spatial pattern of precipitation extremes (expressed in terms of 5-year return levels), although remarkable inter-model spatial differences are evident in all the three seasons. Finally, only one model shows a lack of reliability over the southern part of the domain and mainly in autumn and spring.

  8. Recent trends in heavy precipitation extremes over Germany: A thorough intercomparison between different statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Reik; Passow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    comparison with GEV and GP-based approaches, quantile regression approaches thus allow for more flexibility and make full use of all available observational values, no matter if extreme or not. Due to the latter fact, trends in extreme values can be more easily assessed based on shorter time series. However, the question under which conditions and to what extent regression and extreme value theory-based approaches provide consistent results has not yet been fully explored. In this study, we provide a thorough inter-comparison between the recent trends in extreme precipitation events (assessed in terms of daily precipitation sums) from a large set of German weather stations as revealed by the classical (monthly) block maxima method with linearly time-dependent GEV parameters and linear quantile regression of the full time series. For the study period from 1951 to 2006, our main findings are as follows: (1) The spatial patterns of quantile trends for various high (>90%) percentiles and trends in the location parameter of the GEV distribution are qualitatively consistent and exhibit significant correlations, which, however, clearly deviate from an ideal correspondence. (2) In comparison with the trend parameters, the intercepts of the respective linear models for the GEV location parameter and different quantiles exhibit considerably larger mutual correlation values. (3) Quantile regression indicates more stations with strongly positive trends in extreme precipitation than the block maxima method. Moreover, the significance statements provided by the GEV statistics are more conservative than those resulting from quantile regression. Significant upward trends are generally restricted to Southern and Western Germany and are almost completely absent in the Northeastern part of the country. (4) More complex GEV models including linear trends in both location and dispersion parameter need to be considered only for a small subset of all stations (202 out of 2342). In most cases

  9. Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

    2016-02-24

    The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water

  10. Improving the Canadian Precipitation Analysis Estimates through an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbasnezhadi, K.; Rasmussen, P. F.; Stadnyk, T.

    2014-12-01

    To gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall over the Churchill River basin, this study was undertaken. The research incorporates gridded precipitation data from the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. CaPA has been developed by Environment Canada and provides near real-time precipitation estimates on a 10 km by 10 km grid over North America at a temporal resolution of 6 hours. The spatial fields are generated by combining forecasts from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with precipitation observations from the network of synoptic weather stations. CaPA's skill is highly influenced by the number of weather stations in the region of interest as well as by the quality of the observations. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of CaPA as a function of the density of the weather station network, a dual-stage design algorithm to simulate CaPA is proposed which incorporates generated weather fields. More specifically, we are adopting a controlled design algorithm which is generally known as Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The advantage of using the experiment is that one can define reference precipitation fields assumed to represent the true state of rainfall over the region of interest. In the first stage of the defined OSSE, a coupled stochastic model of precipitation and temperature gridded fields is calibrated and validated. The performance of the generator is then validated by comparing model statistics with observed statistics and by using the generated samples as input to the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model. In the second stage of the experiment, in order to account for the systematic error of station observations and GEM fields, representative errors are to be added to the reference field using by-products of CaPA's variographic analysis. These by-products explain the variance of station observations and background errors.

  11. HEAVY OIL PROCESS MONITOR: AUTOMATED ON-COLUMN ASPHALTENE PRECIPITATION AND RE-DISSOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani Jr; Mark Sanderson

    2006-06-01

    About 37-50% (w/w) of the heptane asphaltenes from unpyrolyzed residua dissolve in cyclohexane. As pyrolysis progresses, this number decrease to below 15% as coke and toluene insoluble pre-coke materials appear. This solubility measurement can be used after coke begins to form, unlike the flocculation titration, which cannot be applied to multi-phase systems. Currently, the procedure for the isolation of heptane asphaltenes and the determination of the amount of asphaltenes soluble in cyclohexane spans three days. A more rapid method to measure asphaltene solubility was explored using a novel on-column asphaltene precipitation and re-dissolution technique. This was automated using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) equipment with a step gradient sequence using the solvents: heptane, cyclohexane, toluene:methanol (98:2). Results for four series of original and pyrolyzed residua were compared with data from the gravimetric method. The measurement time was reduced from three days to forty minutes. The separation was expanded further with the use of four solvents: heptane, cyclohexane, toluene, and cyclohexanone or methylene chloride. This provides a fourth peak which represents the most polar components, in the oil.

  12. Evaluation of simulated precipitation: Recent trends in extreme indices over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yhang, Yoo-Bin

    2014-05-01

    Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. We investigated the ability of a regional climate model to provide the characteristics of East Asian climate focusing on summer and winter monsoon using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. The model can reproduce large scale features associated the East Asian summer and winter monsoon in terms of 30-year (1979-2008) seasonal mean climate. However, accurate prediction of monsoon precipitation is still a challenging task. Precipitation is one of the most important results generated during the model simulation. It is also generally the most difficult variable to simulate correctly in a regional model. Therefore, we will focus on precipitation to examine variability and uncertainty over East Asia in terms of extreme indices. The assessment of simulated precipitation is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

  13. Recent trends in heavy precipitation extremes over Germany: A thorough intercomparison between different statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Reik; Passow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    comparison with GEV and GP-based approaches, quantile regression approaches thus allow for more flexibility and make full use of all available observational values, no matter if extreme or not. Due to the latter fact, trends in extreme values can be more easily assessed based on shorter time series. However, the question under which conditions and to what extent regression and extreme value theory-based approaches provide consistent results has not yet been fully explored. In this study, we provide a thorough inter-comparison between the recent trends in extreme precipitation events (assessed in terms of daily precipitation sums) from a large set of German weather stations as revealed by the classical (monthly) block maxima method with linearly time-dependent GEV parameters and linear quantile regression of the full time series. For the study period from 1951 to 2006, our main findings are as follows: (1) The spatial patterns of quantile trends for various high (>90%) percentiles and trends in the location parameter of the GEV distribution are qualitatively consistent and exhibit significant correlations, which, however, clearly deviate from an ideal correspondence. (2) In comparison with the trend parameters, the intercepts of the respective linear models for the GEV location parameter and different quantiles exhibit considerably larger mutual correlation values. (3) Quantile regression indicates more stations with strongly positive trends in extreme precipitation than the block maxima method. Moreover, the significance statements provided by the GEV statistics are more conservative than those resulting from quantile regression. Significant upward trends are generally restricted to Southern and Western Germany and are almost completely absent in the Northeastern part of the country. (4) More complex GEV models including linear trends in both location and dispersion parameter need to be considered only for a small subset of all stations (202 out of 2342). In most cases

  14. Modelling and dynamic simulation of struvite precipitation from source-separated urine.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Philip A; Wallace, James W; Tickle, Julian C

    2013-01-01

    A model of a mixed-mode nutrient recovery reactor is developed for a urine feed, incorporating complex solution thermodynamics, dynamic conservation relations and a power-law kinetic expression for crystal growth from seed crystals. Simulations at nominal operating conditions predict phosphorus recoveries greater than 99%, based on existing process kinetic parameters and operating conditions employed in previously published studies. The overall rate of nutrient recovery depends on the saturation index of the precipitating solid, the available surface area for mass transfer and the feed rate of the limiting constituent ion. Under the conditions considered, the nutrient feed rate appears to be the limiting factor for precipitation. Simulations demonstrate that diurnal feed flow variations of ±50% have a small effect on the rate of nutrient recovery. Overall, the study shows that valuable insights are gained in relation to process performance predictions, which should lead to more confident process design, operation and control.

  15. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nicholls, Stephen D.; Mohr, Karen I.

    2015-01-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

  16. Application of microwave energy for in-drum solidification of simulated precipitation sludge

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, R.D.; Johnson, A.J.; Swanson, S.D.; Thomas, R.L.

    1987-08-17

    The application of microwave energy for in-container solidification of simulated transuranic contaminated precipitation sludges has been tested. Results indicate volume reductions to 83% are achievable by the continuous feeding of pre-dried sludge into a waste container while applying microwave energy. An economic evaluation was completed showing achievable volume and weight reductions to 87% compared with a current immobilization process for wet sludge. 7 refs., 15 figs., 16 tabs.

  17. 2-D Three Fluid Simulation of Upstreaming Ions Above Auroral Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danielides, M. A.; Lummerzheim, D.; Otto, A.; Stevens, R. J.

    2006-12-01

    The ionosphere is a rich reservoir of charged particles from which a variable fraction is transported to the magnetosphere. An important transport phenomena is the formation of upward ion flow above auroral structure. A primary region of the outflow is not known, but contributions come from polar cap, dayside cusp/cleft region, auroral oval, or even from mid-latitudes. In the past global magnetospheric models and fluid codes were used to simulate large scale ion outflow above, e.g., the polar-cap aurora. However, satellites orbiting at low- altitudes have repeatingly detected localized ion outflow above the auroral oval. Ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling simulations gave first insides into the small-scale dynamics of aurora. The aim of this study is the investigation of coupled plasma and neutral dynamics in smaller scale aurora to explain the generation, structure, and dynamics of vertical ion upstream. We consider auroral electron precipitation at ionospheric heights in a 2-D three fluid ionospheric-magnetospheric coupling code (Otto and Zhu, 2003). Specially we examine the effects of the electron precipitation, heat conduction and heating in field- aligned current through coulomb collisions or turbulence causing: i) electron heating, ii) electron pressure gradients, and iii) upstreaming of ions through a resulting ambipolar electric field. Our first case studies are performed for different boundary conditions and for different auroral electron precipitation parameters (variation in characteristic auroral energy, auroral energy flux and horizontal scale). The results shall clarify how auroral precipitation can drive ions upwards. Finally we discuss the effect of ion drag and the interaction of the upstreaming ions with a stable neutral constituent. Otto, O. and H. Zhu, Fluid plasma simulation of coupled systems: Ionosphere and magnetosphere, Space Plasma Simulation. Edited by J. Buechner, C. Dum, and M. Scholer., Lecture Notes in Physics, vol. 615, p.193

  18. Final Progress Report - Heavy Ion Accelerator Theory and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Haber, Irving

    2009-10-31

    The use of a beam of heavy ions to heat a target for the study of warm dense matter physics, high energy density physics, and ultimately to ignite an inertial fusion pellet, requires the achievement of beam intensities somewhat greater than have traditionally been obtained using conventional accelerator technology. The research program described here has substantially contributed to understanding the basic nonlinear intense-beam physics that is central to the attainment of the requisite intensities. Since it is very difficult to reverse intensity dilution, avoiding excessive dilution over the entire beam lifetime is necessary for achieving the required beam intensities on target. The central emphasis in this research has therefore been on understanding the nonlinear mechanisms that are responsible for intensity dilution and which generally occur when intense space-charge-dominated beams are not in detailed equilibrium with the external forces used to confine them. This is an important area of study because such lack of detailed equilibrium can be an unavoidable consequence of the beam manipulations such as acceleration, bunching, and focusing necessary to attain sufficient intensity on target. The primary tool employed in this effort has been the use of simulation, particularly the WARP code, in concert with experiment, to identify the nonlinear dynamical characteristics that are important in practical high intensity accelerators. This research has gradually made a transition from the study of idealized systems and comparisons with theory, to study the fundamental scaling of intensity dilution in intense beams, and more recently to explicit identification of the mechanisms relevant to actual experiments. This work consists of two categories; work in direct support beam physics directly applicable to NDCX and a larger effort to further the general understanding of space-charge-dominated beam physics.

  19. Evaluation of precipitation variability over northern South America based on CMIP5 historical model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, S. C.; Sierra, J. P.; Arias, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have caused diverse socio-economic consequences. Hence, the evaluation of the representation of local climate of rainfall simulations at intra-annual seasonal and inter-annual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required, in order to identify and analyze projections of regional and local climate under a global climate change scenario. Here, we evaluate the ability of seven of the CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its inter-annual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land, since during these seasons, not only incoming radiation, but also ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans, locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere. Conversely, models exhibit the worse simulations of the seasonal mean precipitation during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

  20. Challenges in Simulating the Indirect Effect of Energetic Particle Precipitation on the Atmosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randall, Cora; Bailey, Scott; Harvey, V. Lynn; Marsh, Daniel

    2015-04-01

    A comprehensive description of Sun-Earth connections requires quantifying the atmospheric processes that indirectly amplify the effects of solar and magnetospheric input. The atmospheric response to energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is a key driver of these processes. EPP during the 2003-2004 Arctic winter led to the production and subsequent descent of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx) from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) into the stratosphere. This caused NOx enhancements in the polar upper stratosphere in April 2004 that were unprecedented in the satellite record. Simulations of the 2003-2004 Arctic winter with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model using Specified Dynamics (SD-WACCM) are compared to satellite measurements to assess how well SD-WACCM captures the observed NOx enhancements. The comparisons show that SD-WACCM clearly displays the descent of NOx produced by EPP, but underestimates the enhancements by a factor of four. The results suggest that problems simulating the atmosphere's recovery from a sudden stratospheric warming, as well as the lack of high energy electron precipitation in the model, both contribute to the inability of SD-WACCM to simulate the NOx enhancements. The work highlights the importance of measuring the full spectrum of precipitating electrons in order to understand the impact of EPP on the atmosphere, and suggests a need for more and higher quality meteorological data and measurements of NOx throughout the polar winter MLT.

  1. Simulations of Precipitation Using NRCM and Comparisons with Satellite Observations and CAM: Annual Cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Murthi, Aditya; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2011-04-14

    The accurate representation of rainfall in models of global climate has been a challenging task for climate modelers owing to its small space and time scales. Quantifying this variability is important for comparing simulations of atmospheric behavior with real time observations. In this regard, this paper compares both the statistical and dynamically forced aspects of precipitation variability simulated by the high-resolution (36 km) Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM), with satellite observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 dataset and simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) at T85 spatial resolution. Six years of rainfall rate data (2000-2005) from within the Tropics (30"S-30"N) have been used in the analysis and results are presented in terms of long-term mean rain rates, amplitude and phase of the annual cycle and seasonal mean maps of precipitation. Our primary focus is on characterizing the annual cycle of rainfall over four land regions of the Tropics namely, the Indian Monsoon, the Amazon, Tropical Africa and the North American monsoon. The lower tropospheric circulation patterns are analyzed in both the observations and the models to identify possible causes for biases in the simulated precipitation. The 6-year mean precipitation simulated by both models show substantial biases throughout the global Tropics with NRCM/CAM systematically underestimating/overestimating rainfall almost everywhere. The seasonal march of rainfall across the equator, following the motion of the sun, is clearly seen in the harmonic vector maps. The timing of peak rainfall (phase) produced by NRCM is in closer agreement with the observations compared to CAM. However like the longtime mean, the magnitude of seasonal mean rainfall is greatly underestimated by NRCM throughout the Tropical land mass. Some of these regional biases can be attributed to erroneous circulation and moisture surpluses/deficits in the lower troposphere in both models

  2. Simulating the transport of heavy charged particles through trabecular spongiosa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gersh, Jacob A.

    As planning continues for manned missions far beyond Low Earth Orbit, a paramount concern remains the flight crew's exposure to galactic cosmic radiation. When humans exit the protective magnetic field of Earth, they become subject to bombardment by highly-reactive heavy charged (HZE) particles. A possible consequence of this two- to three-year-long mission is the onset of radiation-induced leukemia, a disorder with a latency period as short as two to three years. Because data on risk to humans from exposure to HZE particles is non-existent, studies of leukemia in animals are now underway to investigate the relative effectiveness of HZE exposures. Leukemogenesis can result from energy depositions occurring within marrow contained in the trabecular spongiosa. Trabecular spongiosa is found in flat bones and within the ends of long bones, and is characterized by an intricate matrix of interconnected bone tissue forming cavities that house marrow. The microscopic internal dimensions of spongiosa vary between species. As radiation traverses this region, interface-induced dose perturbations that occur at the interfaces between bone and marrow affect the patterns of energy deposition within the region. An aim of this project is to determine the extent by which tissue heterogeneity and microscopic dimensions have on patterns of energy deposition within the trabecular spongiosa. This leads to the development of PATHFIT, a computer code capable of generating simple quadric-based geometric models of trabecular spongiosa for both humans and mice based on actual experimentally-determined internal dimensions of trabecular spongiosa. Following the creation of spongiosa models, focus is placed on the development of HITSPAP, a hybrid Monte Carlo (MC) radiation transport code system that combines capabilities of the MC code PENELOPE and MC code PARTRAC. This code is capable of simulating the transport of HZE particles through accurate models of trabecular spongiosa. The final and

  3. Thermodynamic and mechanical properties of copper precipitates in α-iron from atomistic simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erhart, Paul; Marian, Jaime; Sadigh, Babak

    2013-07-01

    Precipitate hardening is commonly used in materials science to control strength by acting on the number density, size distribution, and shape of solute precipitates in the hardened matrix. The Fe-Cu system has attracted much attention over the last several decades due to its technological importance as a model alloy for Cu steels. In spite of these efforts several aspects of its phase diagram remain unexplained. Here we use atomistic simulations to characterize the polymorphic phase diagram of Cu precipitates in body-centered cubic (BCC) Fe and establish a consistent link between their thermodynamic and mechanical properties in terms of thermal stability, shape, and strength. The size at which Cu precipitates transform from BCC to a close-packed 9R structure is found to be strongly temperature dependent, ranging from approximately 4 nm in diameter (˜2700atoms) at 200 K to about 8 nm (˜22800atoms) at 700 K. These numbers are in very good agreement with the interpretation of experimental data given Monzen [Philos. Mag. APMAADG0141-861010.1080/01418610008212077 80, 711 (2000)]. The strong temperature dependence originates from the entropic stabilization of BCC Cu, which is mechanically unstable as a bulk phase. While at high temperatures the transition exhibits first-order characteristics, the hysteresis, and thus the nucleation barrier, vanish at temperatures below approximately 300 K. This behavior is explained in terms of the mutual cancellation of the energy differences between core and shell (wetting layer) regions of BCC and 9R nanoprecipitates, respectively. The proposed mechanism is not specific for the Fe-Cu system but could generally be observed in immiscible systems, whenever the minority component is unstable in the lattice structure of the host matrix. Finally, we also study the interaction of precipitates with screw dislocations as a function of both structure and orientation. The results provide a coherent picture of precipitate strength that unifies

  4. Alongfront Variability of Precipitation Associated with a Midlatitude Frontal Zone: TRMM Observations and MM5 Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Han, Mei; Braun, Scott A.; Persson, P. Ola; Bao, Jian-Wen

    2009-01-01

    On 19 February 2001, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed complex alongfront variability in the precipitation structure of an intense cold-frontal rainband. The TRMM Microwave Imager brightness temperatures suggested that, compared to the northern and southern ends of the rainband, a greater amount of precipitation ice was concentrated in the middle portion of the rainband where the front bowed out. A model simulation conducted using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is examined to explain the distribution of precipitation associated with the cold-frontal rainband. The simulation reveals that the enhanced precipitation ice production and the implied mean ascent along the central part of the front were associated with a synergistic interaction between a low-level front and an upper-level front associated with an intrusion of high-PV stratospheric air. The low-level front contributed to an intense bow-shaped narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR). The upper-level front was dynamically active only along the central to northern portion of the NCFR, where the upper-level PV advection and Q-vector convergence were most prominent. The enhanced mean ascent associated with the upper-level front contributed to a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) that trailed or overlapped with the NCFR along its central to northern segments. Because of the combination of the forcing from both lower- and upper-level fronts, the ascent was deepest and most intense along the central portion of the front. Thus, a large concentration of precipitation ice, attributed to both the NCFR and WCFR, was produced.

  5. Representation of topography in spectral climate models and its effect on simulated precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Lindberg, C.; Broccoli, A.J.

    1996-11-01

    Spectral climate models are distinguished by their representation of variables as finite sums of spherical harmonics, with coefficients computed by an orthogonal projection of the variables onto the spherical harmonics. Representing the surface elevation in this manner results in its contamination by Gibbs-like truncation artifacts, which appear as spurious valleys and mountain chains in the topography. These {open_quotes}Gibbs ripples{close_quotes} are present in the surface topographies of spectral climate models from a number of research institutions. Integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model over a range of horizontal resolutions indicate that the Gibbs ripples lead to spurious, small-scale extrema in the spatial distribution of precipitation. This {open_quotes}cellular precipitation pathology{close_quotes} becomes more pronounced with increasing horizontal resolution, causing a deterioration in the fidelity of simulated precipitation in higher resolution models. A method is described for reducing the Gibbs ripples that occur when making an incomplete spherical harmonic expansion of the topography. The new spherical harmonic representations of topography are formed by fitting a nonuniform spherical smoothing spline to geodetic data and found by solving a fixed-point problem. This regularization technique results in less distortion of features such as mountain height and continental boundaries than previous smoothing methods. These new expansions of the topography, when used as a lower boundary surface in the GFDL climate model, substantially diminish the cellular precipitation pathology and produce markedly more realistic simulations of precipitation. These developments make the prospect of using higher resolution spectral models for studies of regional hydrologic climate more attractive. 34 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Numerical simulation of cloud and precipitation structure during GALE IOP-2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, F. R.; Perkey, D. J.; Seablom, M. S.

    1988-01-01

    A regional scale model, LAMPS (Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System), is used to investigate cloud and precipitation structure that accompanied a short wave system during a portion of GALE IOP-2. A comparison of satellite imagery and model fields indicates that much of the large mesoscale organization of condensation has been captured by the simulation. In addition to reproducing a realistic phasing of two baroclinic zones associated with a split cold front, a reasonable simulation of the gross mesoscale cloud distribution has been achieved.

  7. Global Simulation of Proton Precipitation Due to Field Line Curvature During Substorms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilson, M. L.; Raeder, J.; Donovan, E.; Ge, Y. S.; Kepko, L.

    2012-01-01

    The low latitude boundary of the proton aurora (known as the Isotropy Boundary or IB) marks an important boundary between empty and full downgoing loss cones. There is significant evidence that the IB maps to a region in the magnetosphere where the ion gyroradius becomes comparable to the local field line curvature. However, the location of the IB in the magnetosphere remains in question. In this paper, we show simulated proton precipitation derived from the Field Line Curvature (FLC) model of proton scattering and a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation during two substorms. The simulated proton precipitation drifts equatorward during the growth phase, intensifies at onset and reproduces the azimuthal splitting published in previous studies. In the simulation, the pre-onset IB maps to 7-8 RE for the substorms presented and the azimuthal splitting is caused by the development of the substorm current wedge. The simulation also demonstrates that the central plasma sheet temperature can significantly influence when and where the azimuthal splitting takes place.

  8. Reactive plasma upgrade of squalane - a heavy oil simulant

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, P.C.; Watkins, A.D.; Detering, B.A.; Thomas, C.P.

    1995-10-01

    U.S. light crude oil production has steadily declined over the last two decades. However, huge known heavy oil deposits in the North American continent remain largely untapped. In the past 10 years, the API gravity of crude oils has been decreasing by about 0.17% per year, and the sulfur content has been increasing by about 0.027% per year. As the API gravity of crude oil decreases, there will be an urgent need for economically viable new technologies to upgrade the heavy oil to a high API gravity feed stock for the refineries. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory is investigating an innovative plasma process to upgrade heavy oil and refinery residuum. This paper will present some of the results and the implications of this technology for heavy oil upgrade and conversion.

  9. Low-frequency oscillations of the East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern and their impacts on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lei; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Ni, Yunqi

    2016-06-01

    Based on the daily reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR and daily precipitation data from the China National Meteorological Information Center, an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is employed to extract the predominant oscillation modes of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. The influences of these low-frequency modes on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River (YHR) valley are investigated. The results indicate that the EAP pattern and rainfall in YHR valley both exhibit remarkable 10-30- and 30-60-day oscillations. The impacts of the EAP pattern on the YHR persistent heavy precipitation can be found on both the 10-30- and 30-60-day timescales—the 10-30-day scale for most cases. Composite analysis indicates that, on the 10-30-day timescale, formation of the EAP pattern in the lower and middle troposphere is determined by convective systems near the tropical western Pacific; whereas in the middle troposphere, the phase transition is jointly contributed by both the dispersion of zonal wave energies at higher latitudes and convective systems over the South China Sea. In the context of the 10-30-day EAP pattern, the anomalously abundant moisture is transported by an anomalous subtropical anticyclone system, and strong moisture convergence results from that anomalous anticyclone system and a cyclonic system in the midlatitude East Asia. Such a combination of systems persists for at least three days, contributing to the formation of persistent heavy precipitation in the YHR valley.

  10. Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koutroulis, A. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Tsanis, I. K.; Papadimitriou, L.

    2016-09-01

    The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is the most recent coordinated experiment of global climate modeling. Compared to its predecessor CMIP3, the fifth phase of the homonymous experiment—CMIP5 involves a greater number of GCMs, run at higher resolutions with more complex components. Here we use daily GCM data from both projects to test their efficiency in representing precipitation and temperature parameters with the use of a state of the art high resolution gridded global dataset for land areas and for the period 1960-2005. Two simple metrics, a comprehensive histogram similarity metric based on the match of simulated and observed empirical pdfs and a metric for the representation of the annual cycle were employed as performance indicators. The metrics were used to assess the skill of each GCM at the entire spectrum of precipitation and temperature pdfs but also for the upper and lower tails of it. Results are presented globally and regionally for 26 land regions that represent different climatic regimes, covering the total earth's land surface except for Antarctica. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models perform better in simulating precipitation including relatively intense events and the fraction of wet days. For temperature the improvement is not as clear except for the upper and lower hot and cold events of the distribution. The agreement of model simulations is also considerably increased in CMIP5. Substantial improvement in intense precipitation is observed over North Europe, Central and Eastern North America and North East Europe. Nevertheless, in both ensembles some models clearly perform better than others from a histogram similarity point of view. The derived skill score metrics provide essential information for impact studies based on global or regional land area multi-model ensembles.

  11. Combined ab initio and classical potential simulation study on silicon carbide precipitation in silicon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zirkelbach, F.; Stritzker, B.; Nordlund, K.; Lindner, J. K. N.; Schmidt, W. G.; Rauls, E.

    2011-08-01

    Atomistic simulations on the silicon carbide precipitation in bulk silicon employing both, classical potential and first-principles methods are presented. The calculations aim at a comprehensive, microscopic understanding of the precipitation mechanism in the context of controversial discussions in the literature. For the quantum-mechanical treatment, basic processes assumed in the precipitation process are calculated in feasible systems of small size. The migration mechanism of a carbon <100> interstitial and silicon <110> self-interstitial in otherwise defect-free silicon are investigated using density functional theory calculations. The influence of a nearby vacancy, another carbon interstitial and a substitutional defect as well as a silicon self-interstitial has been investigated systematically. Interactions of various combinations of defects have been characterized including a couple of selected migration pathways within these configurations. Most of the investigated pairs of defects tend to agglomerate allowing for a reduction in strain. The formation of structures involving strong carbon-carbon bonds turns out to be very unlikely. In contrast, substitutional carbon occurs in all probability. A long range capture radius has been observed for pairs of interstitial carbon as well as interstitial carbon and vacancies. A rather small capture radius is predicted for substitutional carbon and silicon self-interstitials. Initial assumptions regarding the precipitation mechanism of silicon carbide in bulk silicon are established and conformability to experimental findings is discussed. Furthermore, results of the accurate first-principles calculations on defects and carbon diffusion in silicon are compared to results of classical potential simulations revealing significant limitations of the latter method. An approach to work around this problem is proposed. Finally, results of the classical potential molecular dynamics simulations of large systems are examined

  12. Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the "gray zone"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthlott, C.; Hoose, C.

    2015-11-01

    This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model. Six intensive observation periods of the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) measurement campaign conducted in spring 2013 and 1 summer day of the same year are simulated. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests (horizontal grid spacing 2.8, 1 km, 500, and 250 m), the applicability of the COSMO model to represent real weather events in the gray zone, i.e., the scale ranging between the mesoscale limit (no turbulence resolved) and the large-eddy simulation limit (energy-containing turbulence resolved), is tested. To the authors' knowledge, this paper presents the first non-idealized COSMO simulations in the peer-reviewed literature at the 250-500 m scale. It is found that the kinetic energy spectra derived from model output show the expected -5/3 slope, as well as a dependency on model resolution, and that the effective resolution lies between 6 and 7 times the nominal resolution. Although the representation of a number of processes is enhanced with resolution (e.g., boundary-layer thermals, low-level convergence zones, gravity waves), their influence on the temporal evolution of precipitation is rather weak. However, rain intensities vary with resolution, leading to differences in the total rain amount of up to +48 %. Furthermore, the location of rain is similar for the springtime cases with moderate and strong synoptic forcing, whereas significant differences are obtained for the summertime case with air mass convection. Domain-averaged liquid water paths and cloud condensate profiles are used to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the simulated clouds. Finally, probability density functions of convection-related parameters are analyzed to investigate their dependance on model resolution and their impact on cloud formation and subsequent precipitation.

  13. Simulated impacts of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on summer precipitation at the Guinea Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nnamchi, Hyacinth C.; Li, Jianping; Kang, In-Sik; Kucharski, Fred

    2013-08-01

    An intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model has been used to investigate the influence of the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) on summer precipitation over the Guinea Coast of West Africa. Two ensemble integrations in which idealized but realistic SAOD-type sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is prescribed only in the SAO, and then globally are performed and inter-compared. Consistently, above (below) the average precipitation is simulated over the Guinea Coast during the positive (negative) phase of the SAOD. Comparison of the two set of experiments reveal that in its active years, the SAOD is a dominant mechanism that shapes the spatial character of summer precipitation at the Guinea coast, the global SST variability merely slightly moderate its effects. During the SAOD, cool SST anomaly in the extra-tropical SAO off the Brazil-Uruguay-Argentina coast gives rise to suppressed convection and mass divergence. In turn, the subsidence tends to amplify the sub-tropical arm of anomalous Hadley-type circulation and consequently large scale convection and mass flux convergence in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Guinea region bordering on the coastal fringes of West Africa. Precipitation is therefore increased at the Guinea Coast.

  14. Calcite precipitation dominates the electrical signatures of zero valent iron columns under simulated field conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Yuxin; Versteeg, R.; Slater, L.; LaBrecque, D.

    2009-06-01

    Calcium carbonate is a secondary mineral precipitate influencing zero valent iron (ZVI) barrier reactivity and hydraulic performance. We conducted column experiments to investigate electrical signatures resulting from concurrent CaCO{sub 3} and iron oxides precipitation under simulated field geochemical conditions. We identified CaCO{sub 3} as a major mineral phase throughout the columns, with magnetite present primarily close to the influent based on XRD analysis. Electrical measurements revealed decreases in conductivity and polarization of both columns, suggesting that electrically insulating CaCO{sub 3} dominates the electrical response despite the presence of electrically conductive iron oxides. SEM/EDX imaging suggests that the electrical signal reflects the geometrical arrangement of the mineral phases. CaCO{sub 3} forms insulating films on ZVI/magnetite surfaces, restricting charge transfer between the pore electrolyte and ZVI particles, as well as across interconnected ZVI particles. As surface reactivity also depends on the ability of the surface to engage in redox reactions via charge transfer, electrical measurements may provide a minimally invasive technology for monitoring reactivity loss due to CaCO{sub 3} precipitation. Comparison between laboratory and field data shows consistent changes in electrical signatures due to iron corrosion and secondary mineral precipitation.

  15. Thermodynamic modeling and kinetics simulation of precipitate phases in AISI 316 stainless steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Y.; Busby, J. T.

    2014-05-01

    This work aims at utilizing modern computational microstructural modeling tools to accelerate the understanding of phase stability in austenitic steels under extended thermal aging. Using the CALPHAD approach, a thermodynamic database OCTANT (ORNL Computational Thermodynamics for Applied Nuclear Technology), including elements of Fe, C, Cr, Ni, Mn, Mo, Si, and Ti, has been developed with a focus on reliable thermodynamic modeling of precipitate phases in AISI 316 austenitic stainless steels. The thermodynamic database was validated by comparing the calculated results with experimental data from commercial 316 austenitic steels. The developed computational thermodynamics was then coupled with precipitation kinetics simulation to understand the temporal evolution of precipitates in austenitic steels under long-term thermal aging (up to 600,000 h) at a temperature regime from 300 to 900 °C. This study discusses the effect of dislocation density and difusion coefficients on the precipitation kinetics at low temperatures, which shed a light on investigating the phase stability and transformation in austenitic steels used in light water reactors.

  16. Watershed flow paths and stream water nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios under simulated precipitation regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Mark B.; Wang, Dong

    2008-12-01

    Stream water nitrogen-to-phosphorus (N:P) ratios influence algal community composition and nutrient limitation in lotic ecosystems. N:P ratios trend across climates, with low stream water N:P ratios more common in arid climates, yet little is known about mechanisms that cause this spatial and temporal variation. This study evaluates the relationship between precipitation regime (mean annual precipitation and its frequency), watershed flow pathways, and stream water total N-to-total P (TN:TP) ratios, using a model based on a central Minnesota watershed. The purpose of the study was to examine hydrologic mechanisms that control stream water TN:TP ratios. We constructed a model that accounted for hydrological and biogeochemical processes, followed by 161 simulations under a wide range of precipitation frequency and intensity scenarios. Precipitation regime controlled total runoff and subsurface hydrologic connectivity, which had implications for TN and TP concentrations and TN:TP ratios. Results supported the hypothesis that watershed hydrology is an important control on stream water TN:TP ratios and suggested that variation of flow pathways can lead to fundamental changes of N:P ratios.

  17. Hydrologic Simulations in Complex Terrain Conditioned on Different Precipitation Inputs During IPHEx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anagnostou, E. N.; Erlingis, J. M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    An Intensive Observation Period for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), part of NASA's Ground Validation campaign for the newly launched Global Precipitation Measurement Mission took place from May-June 2014 in the Smoky Mountains of western North Carolina. As part of the experiment, the National Severe Storms Laboratory's (NSSL) mobile dual-pol X-band radar, NOXP, was deployed in the Pigeon River Basin (PRB). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of different post-processing algorithms of NOXP data with the suite of observation platforms within the IPHEx domain. In addition, the impact of standard precipitation datasets (Stage IV gauge-corrected radar estimates, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Quantitative Precipitation Estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall, CMORPH, WRF, etc.) on the performance of the CREST hydrologic model at small basin scales in complex terrain will be examined. Hydrologic simulations using a version of CREST with a priori parameters were conducted in the three small catchments within the PRB previously studied by Tao and Barros (2013): the Cataloochee Creek Basin, the East Fork Pigeon River Basin, and the West Fork Pigeon River Basin.

  18. Large-eddy simulation of a turbulent flow over a heavy vehicle with drag reduction devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sangseung; Kim, Myeongkyun; You, Donghyun

    2015-11-01

    Aerodynamic drag contributes to a considerable amount of energy loss of heavy vehicles. To reduce the energy loss, drag reduction devices such as side skirts and boat tails, are often installed to the side and the rear of a heavy vehicle. In the present study, turbulent flow around a heavy vehicle with realistic geometric details is simulated using large-eddy simulation (LES), which is capable of providing unsteady flow physics responsible for aerodynamic in sufficient detail. Flow over a heavy vehicle with and without a boat tail and side skirts as drag reduction devices is simulated. The simulation results are validated against accompanying in-house experimental measurements. Effects of a boat tail and side skirts on drag reduction are discussed in detail. Supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) Grant NTIS 1615007940.

  19. Intercomparison of bias-correction methods for monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by multiple climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, Satoshi; Kanae, Shinjiro; Seto, Shinta; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Oki, Taikan

    2012-12-01

    Bias-correction methods applied to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated by multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated in this study. Although various methods have been proposed recently, an intercomparison among them using multiple GCM simulations has seldom been reported. Moreover, no previous methods have addressed the issue how to adequately deal with the changes of the statistics of bias-corrected variables from the historical to future simulations. In this study, a new method which conserves the changes of mean and standard deviation of the uncorrected model simulation data is proposed, and then five previous bias-correction methods as well as the proposed new method are intercompared by applying them to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated from 12 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) archives. Parameters of each method are calibrated by using 1948-1972 observed data and validated in the 1974-1998 period. These methods are then applied to the GCM future simulations (2073-2097) and the bias-corrected data are intercompared. For the historical simulations, negligible difference can be found between observed and bias-corrected data. However, the differences in future simulations are large dependent on the characteristics of each method. The new method successfully conserves the changes in the mean, standard deviation and the coefficient of variation before and after bias-correction. The differences of bias-corrected data among methods are discussed according to their respective characteristics. Importantly, this study classifies available correction methods into two distinct categories, and articulates important features for each of them.

  20. Using High-Resolution Satellite Observations for Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations. Part I: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Hou, A.; Lau, W. K.; Shie, C.; Tao, W.; Lin, X.; Chou, M.; Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.

    2006-05-01

    The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. Mesoscale organization is adequately simulated except when environmental wind shear is very weak. The partitions between convective and stratiform rain are also close to TMI and PR classification. However, the model simulated rain spectrum is quite different from either TMI or PR measurements. The model produces more heavy rains and light rains (less than 0.1 mm/hr) than the observations. The model also produces heavier vertical hydrometer profiles of rain, graupel when compared with TMI retrievals and PR radar reflectivity. Comparing GCE simulated OLR and cloud properties with CERES measurements found that the model has much larger domain averaged OLR due to smaller total cloud fraction and a much skewed distribution of OLR and cloud top than CERES observations, indicating that the model's cloud field is not wide spread, consistent with the model's precipitation activity. These results will be used as guidance for improving the model's microphysics.

  1. Wind induced errors on solid precipitation measurements: an evaluation using time-dependent turbulence simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca Giovanni; Rasmussen, Roy; Mireille Thériault, Julie

    2014-05-01

    Among the different environmental sources of error for ground based solid precipitation measurements, wind is the main responsible for a large reduction of the catching performance. This is due to the aero-dynamic response of the gauge that affects the originally undisturbed airflow causing the deformation of the snowflakes trajectories. The application of composite gauge/wind shield measuring configurations allows the improvements of the collection efficiency (CE) at low wind speeds (Uw) but the performance achievable under severe airflow velocities and the role of turbulence still have to be explained. This work is aimed to assess the wind induced errors of a Geonor T200B vibrating wires gauge equipped with a single Alter shield. This is a common measuring system for solid precipitation, which constitutes of the R3 reference system in the ongoing WMO Solid Precipitation InterComparison Experiment (SPICE). The analysis is carried out by adopting advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools for the numerical simulation of the turbulent airflow realized in the proximity of the catching section of the gauge. The airflow patterns were computed by running both time-dependent (Large Eddies Simulation) and time-independent (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) simulations. on the Yellowstone high performance computing system of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The evaluation of CE under different Uw conditions was obtained by running a Lagrangian model for the calculation of the snowflakes trajectories building on the simulated airflow patterns. Particular attention has been paid to the sensitivity of the trajectories to different snow particles sizes and water content (corresponding to dry and wet snow). The results will be illustrated in comparative form between the different methodologies adopted and the existing infield CE evaluations based on double shield reference gauges.

  2. Improving the simulation of extreme precipitation events by stochastic weather generators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Furrer, Eva M.; Katz, Richard W.

    2008-12-01

    Stochastic weather generators are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. So the realistic modeling of extreme events is essential. Presently, parametric weather generators do not produce a heavy enough upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amount, whereas those based on resampling have inherent limitations in representing extremes. Regarding this issue, we first describe advanced statistical tools from ultimate and penultimate extreme value theory to analyze and model extremal behavior of precipitation intensity (i.e., nonzero amount), which, although interesting in their own right, are mainly used to motivate approaches to improve the treatment of extremes within a weather generator framework. To this end we propose and discuss several possible approaches, none of which resolves the problem at hand completely, but at least one of them (i.e., a hybrid technique with a gamma distribution for low to moderate intensities and a generalized Pareto distribution for high intensities) can lead to a substantial improvement. An alternative approach, based on fitting the stretched exponential (or Weibull) distribution to either all or only high intensities, is found difficult to implement in practice.

  3. Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate models (GCMs) that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature for input to hydrologic simulation over global land regions. Current assessments are aimed mainly at examining the performance of GCMs from a climatology perspective and not from a hydrology standpoint. The performance of each GCM in reproducing the precipitation and temperature statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) 3.10 gridded data set and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM-based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen-Geiger climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and root mean square error (RMSE) between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following better performing GCMs from a hydrologic perspective: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCm (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute). The future response of these GCMs was found to be representative of the 44 GCM ensemble members which confirms that the selected GCMs are reasonably

  4. Impact of a Land Surface Model (LSM) in a Mesoscale Model on the Prediction of Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hodur, R.; Jakubiak, B.

    2012-04-01

    High-resolution mesoscale models have shown considerable promise in the prediction of mesoscale precipitation events. In particular, the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS), developed for use by the U.S. Navy, and applied for real-time prediction by the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (ICM), has shown skill in the prediction of significant mesoscale rainfall events. Although the original version of COAMPS used a slab model to represent the land surface, recent experiments have been conducted with a new version of COAMPS that uses the NOAH land surface model (LSM) and the NASA Land Information System (LIS). The NOAH LSM uses 24 different land-use categories and 15 plant functional types. Each grid cell in COAMPS is comprised of a mosaic of up to 5 different land-use types, and those grid cells with a vegetation land-use type are further broken down into a maximum of 4 different plant functional types. Simulations have been performed using the slab- and NOAH LSM-versions of COAMPS on several significant rain events that occurred over Poland during the spring and summer of 2010. These simulations indicate that the land-surface interactions can alter the generation, maintenance, and decay of these rain systems, although these interactions are often small and subtle. This talk will address the configuration of two versions of COAMPS, a brief description of the rain events under study, and the results and validation of the tests that have been performed; along with suggestions for further work that is required in this area. Within the validation of the runs, a comparison will be given of the structure of the boundary layers that are formed using the slab- and NOAH LSM configurations of COAMPS, and how the differences in the boundary layer structures from these two versions of the model affect the timing, strength, and distribution of these precipitation events.

  5. Variations in temperature and precipitation during Indian summer monsoon simulated by RegCM3

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dash, S. K.; Mamgain, A.; Pattnayak, K. C.; Giorgi, F.

    2012-04-01

    Variations in temperature and precipitation due to global changes have large societal impact in sectors such as agriculture and health. It is therefore very important to examine their temporal and spatial variations at the regional level in order to access the impact of climate change. In India, the most important quasi-periodic system to affect the weather and climate is the Indian summer monsoon. The local changes in the temperature and precipitation can be well examined by a regional model. RegCM3 is one such model best suited for the Indian region. This model has been integrated in the ensemble mode at 55km resolution over India for the summer monsoon season during the years 1982-2009. The model simulations are compared with observed values in detail. Comparison with observations shows that RegCM3 has slightly underestimated summer monsoon precipitation over the Central and Northeast India. Nevertheless, over these regions, RegCM3 simulated rainfall is closer to the observations when compared to other regions where rainfall is highly overestimated. The model simulated mid-tropospheric temperature shows a warm bias over the Himalayan and Tibetan regions that gives leads to the low pressure in the region. Thus the position of the monsoon trough as simulated by the model lies to the north of its original position. This is similar to the usual monsoon break condition leading to less rainfall over Central India. RegCM3 simulated surface maximum temperature shows large negative bias over the country while the surface minimum temperature is close to the observation. Nevertheless, there is a strong correlation between the all India weighted average surface temperature simulated by RegCM3 and IMD observations. At the regional level, in the Central India, both rainfall and temperature show the best correlation with the respective observed values. While examining the extreme condition in Central India, it is found that RegCM3 simulated frequencies of very wet and

  6. Simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes using a coupled regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicholls, S.; Mohr, K. I.

    2014-12-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. Global climate models, although capable of resolving synoptic-scale South American climate features, are inadequate for fully-resolving the strong gradients between climate regimes and the complex orography which define the Tropical Andes given their low spatial and temporal resolution. Recent computational advances now make practical regional climate modeling with prognostic mesoscale atmosphere-ocean coupled models, such as the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system, to climate research. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the both the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data. More recently, COAWST simulations have also been shown to sensibly reproduce the entire annual cycle of rainfall (Oct 2003 - Oct 2004) with historical climate model input. Using future global climate model input for COAWST, the present work involves year-long cycle spanning October to October for the years 2031, 2059, and 2087 assuming the most likely regional climate pathway (RCP): RCP 6.0. COAWST output is used to investigate how global climate change impacts the spatial distribution, precipitation rates, and diurnal cycle of precipitation patterns in the Central Andes vary in these yearly "snapshots". Initial results show little change to precipitation coverage or its diurnal cycle, however precipitation amounts did tend drier over the Brazilian Plateau and wetter over the Western Amazon and Central Andes. These results suggest potential adjustments to large-scale climate features (such as the Bolivian High).

  7. Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and

  8. Simulation of subgrid orographic precipitation with an embedded 2-D cloud-resolving model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Joon-Hee; Arakawa, Akio

    2016-03-01

    By explicitly resolving cloud-scale processes with embedded two-dimensional (2-D) cloud-resolving models (CRMs), superparameterized global atmospheric models have successfully simulated various atmospheric events over a wide range of time scales. Up to now, however, such models have not included the effects of topography on the CRM grid scale. We have used both 3-D and 2-D CRMs to simulate the effects of topography with prescribed "large-scale" winds. The 3-D CRM is used as a benchmark. The results show that the mean precipitation can be simulated reasonably well by using a 2-D representation of topography as long as the statistics of the topography such as the mean and standard deviation are closely represented. It is also shown that the use of a set of two perpendicular 2-D grids can significantly reduce the error due to a 2-D representation of topography.

  9. Effects of Model Resolution and Subgrid-Scale Physics on the Simulation of Daily Precipitation in the Continental United States

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Iorio, J P; Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S L; Khairoutdinov, M; Randall, D

    2004-07-28

    We analyze simulations of the global climate performed at a range of spatial resolutions to assess the effects of horizontal spatial resolution on the ability to simulate precipitation in the continental United States. The model investigated is the CCM3 general circulation model. We also preliminarily assess the effect of replacing cloud and convective parameterizations in a coarse-resolution (T42) model with an embedded cloud-system resolving model (CSRM). We examine both spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation and daily-timescale temporal variability of precipitation in the continental United States. For DJF and SON, high-resolution simulations produce spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation that agree more closely with observed precipitation patterns than do results from the same model (CCM3) at coarse resolution. However, in JJA and MAM, there is little improvement in spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation with increasing resolution, particularly in the Southeast. This is owed to the dominance of convective (i.e., parameterized) precipitation in these two seasons. We further find that higher-resolution simulations have more realistic daily precipitation statistics. In particular, the well-known tendency at coarse resolution to have too many days with weak precipitation and not enough intense precipitation is partially eliminated in higher-resolution simulations. However, even at the highest resolution examined here (T239), the simulated intensity of the mean and of high-percentile daily precipitation amounts is too low. This is especially true in the Southeast, where the most extreme events occur. A new GCM, in which a cloud-resolving model (CSRM) is embedded in each grid cell and replaces convective and stratiform cloud parameterizations, solves this problem, and actually produces too much precipitation in the form of extreme events. However, in contrast to high-resolution versions of CCM3, this model produces little improvement in

  10. The microwave properties of simulated melting precipitation particles: sensitivity to initial melting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, B. T.; Olson, W. S.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.

    2015-06-01

    A simplified approach is presented for assessing the microwave response to the initial melting of realistically-shaped ice particles. This paper is divided into two parts: (1) a description of the Single Particle Melting Model (SPMM): a heuristic melting simulation for ice-phase precipitation particles of any shape or size. SPMM is applied to two simulated aggregate snow particles, simulating melting up to 0.15 melt fraction by mass; and (2) the computation of the single-particle microwave scattering and extinction properties these hydrometeors, using the discrete dipole approximation (via DDSCAT), at the following selected frequencies: 13.4, 35.6, 94.0 GHz for radar applications; and 89, 165.0 and 183.31 GHz for radiometer applications. These selected frequencies are consistent with current microwave remote sensing platforms, such as CloudSat and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparisons with calculations using variable-density spheres indicate significant deviations in scattering and extinction properties throughout the initial range of melting (liquid volume fractions less than 0.15). Integration of the single-particle properties over an exponential particle-size distribution provides additional insight into idealized radar reflectivity and passive microwave brightness temperature sensitivity to variations in size/mass, shape, melt fraction, and particle orientation.

  11. The microwave properties of simulated melting precipitation particles: sensitivity to initial melting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, B. T.; Olson, W. S.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.

    2016-01-01

    A simplified approach is presented for assessing the microwave response to the initial melting of realistically shaped ice particles. This paper is divided into two parts: (1) a description of the Single Particle Melting Model (SPMM), a heuristic melting simulation for ice-phase precipitation particles of any shape or size (SPMM is applied to two simulated aggregate snow particles, simulating melting up to 0.15 melt fraction by mass), and (2) the computation of the single-particle microwave scattering and extinction properties of these hydrometeors, using the discrete dipole approximation (via DDSCAT), at the following selected frequencies: 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0 GHz for radar applications and 89, 165.0, and 183.31 GHz for radiometer applications. These selected frequencies are consistent with current microwave remote-sensing platforms, such as CloudSat and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparisons with calculations using variable-density spheres indicate significant deviations in scattering and extinction properties throughout the initial range of melting (liquid volume fractions less than 0.15). Integration of the single-particle properties over an exponential particle size distribution provides additional insight into idealized radar reflectivity and passive microwave brightness temperature sensitivity to variations in size/mass, shape, melt fraction, and particle orientation.

  12. Preserving spatial linear correlations between neighboring stations in simulating daily precipitation using extended Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ababaei, Behnam; Sohrabi, Teymour; Mirzaei, Farhad

    2014-10-01

    Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial.

  13. Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

  14. Sustained Water Changes in California during Drought and Heavy Precipitation Inferred from GPS, InSAR, and GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argus, D. F.; Fu, Y.; Landerer, F. W.; Wiese, D. N.; Farr, T. G.; Liu, Z.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    About 1200 GPS sites in the westernmost United States are used to weigh changes in surface water as a function of location from 2006 to 2015. The effect of known changes in water in artificial reservoirs is removed, allowing changes in the total of snow, soil moisture, and mountain fracture groundwater to be inferred from GPS. In this study water changes inferred from GPS are placed into the context of complementary InSAR and GRACE data. The southern Central Valley (the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Basin) is subsiding at spectacular rates of 0.01 m/yr to 0.2 m/yr in response to groundwater management. We construct an elastic model of groundwater change of the southern Central Valley, using GRACE as the basis of total groundwater loss and InSAR to infer the lateral distribution of that groundwater loss. This elastic model of Central Valley groundwater loss is removed from the GPS displacements. Because snow in California is insignificant in October, and because changes in soil moisture between successive autumns are small, we can infer changes in Sierra Nevada mountain fracture groundwater to be: -19 km3 during drought from 2006 to 2009, +35 km3 during heavy precipitation from 2009 to 2011, and -38 km3 during drought from 2011 to 2014 (start and end times are all in October). We infer changes in Sierra Nevada mountain groundwater to be playing an important role in modulating Central Valley groundwater loss. Total water in the Sierra Nevada recovered by 16 km3 from October 2014 to April 2015, but water is being lost again in summer 2015.

  15. Simulations of dry-out and halite precipitation due to CO2 injection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurter, S.; Labregere, D.; Berge, J.

    2007-12-01

    Although H2O is not very soluble in supercritical CO2, a continuous stream of CO2 injected into a formation, will cause a region around the injection well to dry out. As the water of the formation brine is continuously evaporated into the CO2, the irreducible water saturation may attain practically zero. Enhanced injectivity is the result of this process in a low salinity brine environment. In formations saturated with highly saline brine (e.g. Northern German Basin) the outcome is opposite: injectivity is impaired. In this case, the brine becomes supersaturated as continuously H2O evaporates into the CO2 phase and salt (halite) precipitates in the pores. The porosity and permeability diminish, which can lead to the loss of a well. We present simulations of these processes as an example of pre-injection study for a CO2 injection and storage site. The simulation tool consists of a commercial compositional code used extensively in the oil and gas industry to simulate the flow of multiple phases (oil, water, gas) in porous or fractured media. The mutual solubility of CO2 and H2O with a correction for salinity is implemented as described in Spycher and Pruess (2005). The brine salinity is adjusted accordingly until the saturation threshold is reached and halite is precipitated. The distribution of precipitation in the reservoir depends not only of the relationship between permeability change as a function of porosity change, but also on the relative permeability curves for the CO2-brine system. Therefore it is essential to establish relative permeability curves in the laboratory, as well as to obtain a relationship between porosity change and permeability variation with precipitation by laboratory experiments on cores to obtain meaningful results from numerical simulations. References Spycher N. and Pruess, K. (2005), CO2-H2O mixtures in the geological sequestration of CO2, II Partitioning in chloride brines at 12-100° and up to 600 bar, Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 69

  16. Using sequential Gaussian simulation to quantify uncertainties in interpolated gauge based precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehlers, Lennart; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; He, Xin; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation is a key input to hydrological models. Spatially distributed rainfall used in hydrological modelling is commonly based on the interpolation of gauge rainfall using conventional geostatistical techniques such as kriging, e.g. Salamon and Feyen [2009], Stisen et al. [2011]. While being effective point interpolators [Moulin et al., 2009], these techniques are unable to reproduce the spatial variability inherent in the rainfall process at unsampled locations. Stochastic simulation approaches provide the means to better capture this variability and hence to quantify the associated spatial uncertainty [McMillan et al., 2011]. The objective of this study is to quantify uncertainties in interpolated gauge based rainfall by employing sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) coupled with ordinary kriging (OK) to generate realizations of daily precipitation at a 2x2 km2 grid. The rainfall gauge data was collected in a 1055 km2 subcatchment within the HOBE catchment (Jutland, Denmark) [Jensen and Illangasekare, 2011]. The following uncertainties are considered: i) interpolation uncertainty ii) uncertainty on the point measurement iii) location uncertainty. Results from using different numbers of SGS realizations and different lengths of the simulated period as well as different assumptions on the underlying uncertainties will be presented and discussed with regard to mean annual catchment rainfall. Jensen, K. H., and T. H. Illangasekare (2011), HOBE: A Hydrological Observatory, Vadose Zone J, 10(1), 1-7. McMillan, H., B. Jackson, M. Clark, D. Kavetski, and R. Woods (2011), Rainfall uncertainty in hydrological modelling: An evaluation of multiplicative error models, J Hydrol, 400(1-2), 83-94. Moulin, L., E. Gaume, and C. Obled (2009), Uncertainties on mean areal precipitation: assessment and impact on streamflow simulations, Hydrol Earth Syst Sc, 13(2), 99-114. Salamon, P., and L. Feyen (2009), Assessing parameter, precipitation, and predictive uncertainty in a

  17. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  18. Stochastic Simulation of Precipitation Fields Conditioned on Radar and Gauge Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfaff, T.; Bárdossy, A.

    2009-04-01

    Precipitation is the main input variable for hydrological modelling. Operational precipitation data are usually provided by rain gauges, weather radar and sometimes satellite observations., Precipitation data with very high spatial and temporal resolution is necessary especially for flash flood forecasting in small catchments. Usually these can neither be provided by rain gauge networks nor satellite measurements. However, radar data has not been used widely in operational flood forecasting yet. Modelling results obtained with radar derived precipitation forcing still don't show a better skill than those obtained by using gauge observations. Radar data suffers from a set of errors. The common ones are uncertainties in the Z-R relation, attenuation effects and uncertain vertical profiles of reflectivity. Corrections for any of these errors have been devised but it has also been shown that some corrections just shift the uncertainty from one source to another. Since the 'true' rainfall field cannot be known, true error statistics cannot be calculated. A measure of uncertainty can be obtained by comparing radar (R) and gauge data (G). Recent developments towards radar ensemble generation focus on the generation of relative uncertainty fields. They are based on comparisons of radar data with gauge data or of radar fields with reference fields obtained by gauge adjustment. The generated fields are then multiplied with the radar field to create the realizations. The proposed approach aims at stochastic simulation of precipitation fields conditioned on radar data In addition, the approach incorporates the additional information available from gauge measurements similarly to radar gauge adjustment. If radar data is adjusted by gauge data using either a multiplicative or an additive correction term, this single correction term can produce unrealistic results when it is regionalized to the radar cells surrounding the reference gauge. This problem can be avoided by splitting

  19. Study of benzene release from Savannah River in-tank precipitation process slurry simulant

    SciTech Connect

    Rappe, K.G.; Gauglitz, P.A.

    1998-08-01

    At the Savannah River Site, the in-tank precipitation (ITP) process uses sodium tetraphenylborate (NaTPB) to precipitate radioactive cesium from alkaline wastes. During this process, potassium is also precipitated to form 4-wt% KTPB/CsTPB slurry. Residual NaTPB decomposes to form benzene, which is retained by the waste slurry. The retained benzene is also readily released from the waste during subsequent waste processing. While the release of benzene certainly poses flammability and toxicological safety concerns, the magnitude of the hazard depends on the rate of release. Currently, the mechanisms controlling the benzene release rates are not well understood, and predictive models for estimating benzene release rates are not available. The overall purpose of this study is to obtain quantitative measurements of benzene release rates from a series of ITP slurry simulants. This information will become a basis for developing a quantitative mechanistic model of benzene release rates. The transient benzene release rate was measured from the surface of various ITP slurry (solution) samples mixed with benzene. The benzene release rate was determined by continuously purging the headspace of a sealed sample vessel with an inert gas (nitrogen) and analyzing that purged headspace vapor for benzene every minute.

  20. Simulation study of mechanical properties of bulk metallic glass systems: martensitic inclusions and twinned precipitates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaheri, A.; Abdeljawad, F.; Haataja, M.

    2014-12-01

    Monolithic bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibit a unique combination of mechanical properties, such as high strength and large elasticity limits, but the lack of ductility is considered the main Achilles' heel of BMG systems. To increase the competitiveness of BMGs vis-à-vis conventional structural materials, the problem of catastrophic failure via intense plastic strain localization (‘shear banding’) has to be addressed. Recent experimental observations suggest that the addition of structural heterogeneities, in the form of crystalline particles, to BMG systems hinders the catastrophic propagation of shear bands and leads to enhanced ductility. These structural heterogeneities can be introduced by either forming BMG composites, where second-phase crystalline particles accommodate applied loads via martensitic transformation mechanisms, or developing glassy alloys that precipitate crystalline particles under deformation, a process by which further deformation can be sustained by twinning mechanisms in the crystalline phase. In this work, we present a non-linear continuum model capable of capturing the structural heterogeneity in the glassy phase and accounting for intrinsic work hardening via martensitic transformations in second-phase reinforcements in BMG composites and deformation twinning in precipitated crystalline particles. Simulation results reveal that in addition to intrinsic work hardening in the crystalline phase, particle size greatly affects the overall mechanical behavior of these BMG systems. The precipitation of crystalline particles in monolithic BMGs yields two-phase microstructures that promote more homogeneous deformation, delay the propagation of incipient shear bands, and ultimately result in improved ductility characteristics.

  1. Numerical simulations of mesoscale precipitation systems. Final progress report, 1 April-30 June 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Dingle, A.N.

    1982-05-12

    A numerical model designed for the study of mesoscale weather phenomena is presented. It is a three-dimensional, time-dependent model based upon a mesoscale primitive-equation system, and it includes parameterizations of cloud and precipitation processes, boundary-layer transfers, and ground surface energy and moisture budgets. This model was used to simulate the lake-effect convergence over and in the lee of Lake Michigan in late fall and early winter. The lake-effect convergence is created in advected cold air as it moves first from cold land to the warm constant-temperature lake surface, and then on to cold land. A numerical experiment with a prevailing northwesterly wind is conducted for a period of twelve hours. Two local maxima of the total precipitation are observed along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. The results in this hypothetical case correspond quite well to the observed precipitation produced by a real event in which the hypothetical conditions are approximately fulfilled.

  2. The simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land in a global model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bechtold, P.; Chaboureau, J. P.; Beljaars, A.; Betts, A. K.; Köhler, M.; Miller, M.; Redelsperger, J. L.

    2004-10-01

    In the context of the European Cloud Systems project, the problem of the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convective precipitation over land is addressed with the aid of cloud-resolving (CRM) and single-column (SCM) model simulations of an idealized midlatitude case for which observations of large-scale and surface forcing are available. The CRM results are compared to different versions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) convection schemes using different convective trigger procedures and convective closures. In the CRM, maximum rainfall intensity occurs at 15 h (local time). In this idealized midlatitude case, most schemes do not reproduce the afternoon precipitation peak, as (i) they cannot reproduce the gradual growth (typically over 3 hours) of the deep convective cloud layer and (ii) they produce a diurnal cycle of precipitation that is in phase with the diurnal cycle of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the convective inhibition (CIN), consistent with the parcel theory and CAPE closure used in the bulk mass-flux scheme. The scheme that links the triggering to the large-scale vertical velocity gets the maximum precipitation at the right time, but this may be artificial as the vertical velocity is enforced in the single-column context. The study is then extended to the global scale using ensembles of 72-hour global forecasts at resolution T511 (40 km), and long-range single 40-day forecasts at resolution T159 (125 km) with the ECMWF general-circulation model. The focus is on tropical South America and Africa where the diurnal cycle is most pronounced. The forecasts are evaluated against analyses and observed radiosonde data, as well as observed surface and satellite-derived rainfall rates. The ECMWF model version with improved convective trigger produces the smallest biases overall. It also shifts the rainfall maximum to 12 h compared to 9.5 h in the original version. In contrast to the SCM, the vertical

  3. Intercomparison Of Bias-Correction Methods For Monthly Temperature And Precipitation Simulated By Multiple Climate Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watanabe, S.; Kanae, S.; Seto, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Oki, T.

    2012-12-01

    Bias-correction methods applied to monthly temperature and precipitation data simulated by multiple General Circulation Models (GCMs) are evaluated in this study. Although various methods have been proposed recently, an intercomparison among them using multiple GCM simulations has seldom been reported. Here, five previous methods as well as a proposed new method are compared. Before the comparison, we classified previous methods. The methods proposed in previous studies can be classified into four types based on the following two criteria: 1) Whether the statistics (e.g. mean, standard deviation, or the coefficient of variation) of future simulation is used in bias-correction; and 2) whether the estimation of cumulative probability is included in bias-correction. The methods which require future statistics will depend on the data in the projection period, while those which do not use future statistics are not. The classification proposed can characterize each bias-correction method. These methods are applied to temperature and precipitation simulated from 12 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) archives. Parameters of each method are calibrated by using 1948-1972 observed data and validated for the 1974-1998 period. These methods are then applied to GCM future simulations (2073-2097), and the bias-corrected data are intercompared. For the historical simulation, negligible difference can be found between observed and bias-corrected data. However, the difference in the future simulation is large dependent on the characteristics of each method. The frequency (probability) that the 2073-2097 bias-corrected data exceed the 95th percentile of the 1948-1972 observed data is estimated in order to evaluate the differences among methods. The difference between proposed and one of the previous method is more than 10% in many areas. The differences of bias-corrected data among methods are discussed based on their respective characteristics. The results

  4. Simulator Investigations of the Problems of Flying a Swept-Wing Transport Aircraft in Heavy Turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Richard S.; Larsen, William E.

    1965-01-01

    An investigation of several factors which may contribute to the problem of piloting jet transport aircraft in heavy turbulence was conducted by using a piloted simulator that included the most significant airplane response and cockpit vibrations induced by rough air. Results indicated that the primary fuselage structural frequency contributed significantly to a distracting cockpit environment, and there was obtained evidence of severely reduced instrument flight proficiency during simulated maneuvering flight in heavy turbulence. It is concluded that the addition of similar rough-air response capabilities to training simulators would be of value in pilot indoctrination in turbulent-flight procedures.

  5. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2015-04-01

    coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The austral summer and winter composites of interannual and intraseasonal anomalies showed for wet and dry extreme events the same spatial distribution in models and reanalyses. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Amazon. In the Intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. Note that there are differences between simulated and observed IS anomalies indicating that the models have problems to correctly represent the intensity of low frequency phenomena in this scale. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high resolution, mainly in the oceanic component, which contributes to the better solution of the small scale vortices in the ocean. This implies in improvements in the forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) and as consequence in the ability of atmosphere to respond to this feature.

  6. Simulations of wintertime precipitation in the vicinity of Japan: Sensitivity to fine-scale distributions of sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iizuka, Satoshi

    2010-05-01

    In the present study, the winter precipitation in the vicinity of Japan is simulated by the Weather Research Forecasting model by using two sets of sea surface temperature (SST) data with different spatial resolutions. On comparing the simulated mean precipitations, we found that SST resolution has a significant influence on the simulated precipitation along the northwestern coast of Japan; in this region, the coarse-resolution SST data have a systematic cold bias. In the simulation using high-resolution SST data, the moisture supply to the atmosphere increases over the relatively warm coastal SST. The increase in the moisture supply leads to an increase in the moisture convergence near the mountain ranges in Japan on the Japan Sea side, leading to an increase in precipitation amount. The result suggests that coastal SST must be carefully used for dynamic downscaling of the climate simulation, in particular, in Japan, which is surrounded by boundary currents. We also found that a small-scale SST anomaly in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region near Japan enhances the interannual variance of local precipitation in the regions downwind of the SST anomaly. The associated anomalous ascent extends to the midtroposphere and is accompanied by an increase in cloud ice, suggesting that the interannual SST variation over the KOE region may affect the free atmosphere. Moisture budget analysis indicates the influence of moisture advection by mean wind on the spatial phase difference between the SST and precipitation anomalies.

  7. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, M. D. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2015-12-01

    The increased horizontal resolution of climate models aims to improve the simulations accuracy and to understand the non-linear processes during interactions between different spatial scales within the climate system. Up to this moment, these interactions did not have a good representation on low horizontal resolution GCMs. The variations of extreme climatic events had been described and analyzed in the scientific literature. In a scenario of global warming it is necessary understanding and explaining extreme events and to know if global models may represent these events. The purpose of this study was to understand the impact of the horizontal resolution in high resolution coupled and atmospheric global models of HiGEM project in simulating atmospheric patterns and processes of interaction between spatial scales. Moreover, evaluate the performance of coupled and uncoupled versions of the High-Resolution Global Environmental Model in capturing the signal of interannual and intraseasonal variability of precipitation over Amazon region. The results indicated that the grid refinement and ocean-atmosphere coupling contributes to a better representation of seasonal patterns, both precipitation and temperature, on the Amazon region. Besides, the climatic models analyzed represent better than other models (regional and global) the climatic characteristics of this region. This indicates a breakthrough in the development of high resolution climate models. Both coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the ENSO in the Amazon. In the intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high

  8. The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2003-12-01

    This paper examines sensitivity of regional climate simulations to spatial resolution using a 20-year simulation of the western U.S. at 40 km resolution and two 5-year simulations at 13 km resolution for the Pacific Northwest and California. The regional climate simulation at 40 km resolution shows a lack of precipitation along coastal hills, good agreements with observations on the windward slopes of the Cascades and Sierra, but over-prediction on the leeside and the basins beyond. Snowpack is grossly under-predicted throughout the western U.S. when compared against observations at snotel sites, which are typically located at the higher altitudes. Comparisons of the 40 km and 13 km resolution simulations suggest that during winter, higher spatial resolution mainly improves the simulation of precipitation in the coastal hills and basins. Along the Cascades and the Sierra Range, however, precipitation is strongly amplified at the higher spatial resolution and compares less favorably with observations. Higher resolution generally improves the spatial distribution of precipitation to yield higher spatial correlation when comparing the simulations to observation. During summer, higher resolution improves not only spatial distribution but also regional mean precipitation.

  9. Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Song, Hua; Lin, Wuyin; Lin, Yanluan; Wolf, Audrey B.; Neggers, Roel; Donner, Leo J.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Liu, Yangang

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.

  10. Impact of the ongoing Amazonian deforestation on local precipitation: A GCM simulation study

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, G.K.; Sud, Y.C.; Atlas, R.

    1995-03-01

    Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm d{sup {minus}1} (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm d{sup {minus}1} (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2-day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. A larger decrease in precipitation as compared to evapotranspiration produces some drying and warming. The precipitation differences are consistent with the decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence and are consistent with earlier simulation studies of local climate change due to large-scale deforestation. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages. 34 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

  11. Numerical simulation of the geographical sources of water for Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Sud, Yogesh; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.

  12. Simulation on the Charged Particle Response of the STAR Heavy Flavor Tracker Pixel Detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cimaroli, Alex; Li, Xin

    2009-10-01

    The main task of the STAR experiment, located at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider at Brookhaven National Laboratory, is to study the quark-gluon plasma (QGP), which is believed to have been created a few microseconds after the ``Big Bang.'' Heavy quarks are ideal tools for studying the properties of QGP. The Heavy Flavor Tracker (HFT) is the central part of the STAR future heavy flavor physics program and will enable STAR to directly measure heavy flavor mesons. The core of HFT is a pixel detector (PIXEL) using CMOS Active PIXEL Sensor. This poster will describe the development of a detailed simulation of the pixel detector response to charged particles and the corresponding fast simulation that dramatically enhances the simulation speed with little sacrifice in accuracy. The full simulation randomly generates ionized electrons along an incoming track and diffuses the electrons inside the pixel array until they are collected by the electronics or recombined inside a pixel. With the same result, the fast simulation, which quickens processing time from one hour to 5 seconds, generates a grid inside a single pixel and create a map of probability distribution functions for a single ionized electron generated from a grid point. We will also discuss the study of pixel detector position resolution using a simple clustering algorithm.

  13. Pyrophosphate synthesis in iron mineral films and membranes simulating prebiotic submarine hydrothermal precipitates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barge, Laura M.; Doloboff, Ivria J.; Russell, Michael J.; VanderVelde, David; White, Lauren M.; Stucky, Galen D.; Baum, Marc M.; Zeytounian, John; Kidd, Richard; Kanik, Isik

    2014-03-01

    Cells use three main ways of generating energy currency to drive metabolism: (i) conversion of adenosine diphosphate (ADP) to adenosine triphosphate (ATP) by the proton motive force through the rotor-stator ATP synthase; (ii) the synthesis of inorganic phosphate˜phosphate bonds via proton (or sodium) pyrophosphate synthase; or (iii) substrate-level phosphorylation through the direct donation from an active phosphoryl donor. A mechanism to produce a pyrophosphate bond as “energy currency” in prebiotic systems is one of the most important considerations for origin of life research. Baltscheffsky (1996) suggests that inorganic pyrophosphate (PO74-; PPi) may have preceded ATP/ADP as an energy storage molecule in earliest life, produced by an H+ pyrophosphatase. Here we test the hypothesis that PPi could be synthesized in inorganic precipitates simulating hydrothermal chimney structures transected by thermal and/or ionic gradients. Appreciable yields of PPi were obtained via substrate phosphorylation by acetyl phosphate within the iron sulfide/silicate precipitates at temperatures expected for an alkaline hydrothermal system. The formation of PPi only occurred in the solid phase, i.e. when both Pi and the phosphoryl donor were precipitated with Fe-sulfides or Fe-silicates. The amount of Ac-Pi incorporated into the precipitate was a significant factor in the amount of PPi that could form, and phosphate species were more effectively incorporated into the precipitate at higher temperatures (⩾50 to >85 °C). Thus, we expect that the hydrothermal precipitate would be more enriched in phosphate (and especially, Ac-Pi) near the inner margins of a hydrothermal mound where PPi formation would be at a maximum. Iron sulfide and iron silicate precipitates effectively stabilized Ac-Pi and PPi against hydrolysis (relative to hydrolysis in aqueous solution). Thus it is plausible that PPi could accumulate as an energy currency up to useful concentrations for early life in a

  14. Intensification of the regional scale variability of extreme precipitation derived from RCM simulations and observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feldmann, H.; Schädler, G.; Panitz, H.-J.

    2012-04-01

    Future climate change patterns are usually derived from ensembles of coarse global climate model simulations (GCMs), for instance within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) or from regional climate projections at resolutions of some tens of km, for instance for Europe from the ENSEMBLES or PRUDENCE projects. For regions with complex topography like Central Europe the horizontal resolution of these climate projections is still too coarse to resolve the typical topographical length scales, and therefore the impact of the large scale changes with the regional geography cannot be captured adequately. For this task high resolution ensemble simulations with regional climate models (RCMs) are needed. The generation of an ensemble of such high resolution simulations requires great computational efforts. With the RCM COSMO-CLM several simulations with resolutions down to 7 km have been performed, using different driving GCMs and GCM realisations. This ensemble approach is needed to estimate the robustness of the change signals and to account for the uncertainties introduced by differences in the large scale forcing due to the variability of the climate change signals caused by the different GCMs or the natural variability. The focus of the study is on the changes of extreme precipitation for the near future until the middle of the 21st century. An increase of the temporal and spatial variability is found for the precipitation extremes, especially for summer. The change patterns seem to be statistically robust. Based on long-term observation climatologies for the second half of the 20th century, similar structures where found with areas of decrease and increase only a few tens of kilometres apart from each other. The combination of the findings from the RCM projections and observations suggests a continuation of the trends from the recent past into the near future. Possible causes for the horizontally heterogeneous change patterns are related to weather pattern

  15. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, X.; Shi, Y.; Song, R.; Giorgi, F.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.

    2008-08-01

    Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia are performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM. Two sets of simulations are conducted at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate (IPCC A2 scenario). The mean precipitation change during the monsoon season (May to September) over China is analyzed and intercompared between the RegCM and FvGCM. Simulation of the present day precipitation by the RegCM shows a better performance than that of the driving FvGCM in terms of both spatial pattern and amount. The main improvement of the RegCM is the removal of an artificial precipitation center over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau simulated by the FvGCM. The FvGCM simulates a predominant increase of precipitation over the region, whereas the RegCM shows extended areas of decrease. The causes of these differences are investigated and explained in terms of the different topographical forcing on circulation and moisture flux in the two models. We also find that the RegCM-simulated changes are in better agreement with observed precipitation trends over East Asia. It is suggested that high resolution models are needed to better investigate future climate projections over China and East Asia.

  16. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions

  17. Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabari, Hossein; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Saeed, Sajjad; Brisson, Erwan; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Willems, Patrick

    2016-09-01

    This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local sub-daily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.

  18. Enhancements to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating in-stream water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markstrom, S. L.; Hay, L.

    2010-12-01

    A stream temperature module has been developed for the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for simulating maximum- and mean-daily stream temperature. This module provides additional simulation capabilities by coupling PRMS with the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature (SNTEMP) model. PRMS is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates watershed response to various combinations of climate and land use. Normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water-balance relations, streamflow regimes, soil-water relations, and ground-water recharge. SNTEMP was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of flow regime changes on water temperatures. This coupling of PRMS with SNTEMP will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature. The prototype of this coupled model was developed for the U.S. Geological Survey Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) and tested in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States. Preliminary results from the prototype are presented.

  19. Simulation studies of acceleration of heavy ions and their elemental compositions; IFSR--755

    SciTech Connect

    Toida, Mieko; Ohsawa, Yukiharu

    1996-07-01

    By using a one-dimensional, electromagnetic particle simulation code with full ion and electron dynamics, we have studied the acceleration of heavy ions by a nonlinear magnetosonic wave in a multi-ion-species plasma. First, we describe the mechanism of heavy ion acceleration by magnetosonic waves. We then investigate this by particle simulations. The simulation plasma contains four ion species: H, He, O, and Fe. The number density of He is taken to be 10% of that of H, and those of O and Fe are much lower. Simulations confirm that, as in a single-ion-species plasma, some of the hydrogens can be accelerated by the longitudinal electric field formed in the wave. Furthermore, they show that magnetosonic waves can accelerate all the particles of all the heavy species (He, O, and Fe) by a different mechanism, i.e., by the transverse electric field. The maximum speeds of the heavy species are about the same, of the order of the wave propagation speed. These are in good agreement with theoretical prediction. These results indicate that, if high-energy ions are produced in the solar corona through these mechanisms, the elemental compositions of these heavy ions can be similar to that of the background plasma, i.e., the corona.

  20. Molecular dynamics simulations of swift heavy ion induced defect recovery in SiC

    SciTech Connect

    Backman, Marie; Toulemonde, Marcel; Pakarinen, Olli H; Juslin, Niklas; Djurabekova, Flyura; Nordlund, Kai; Debelle, Aurelien; Weber, William J

    2013-01-01

    Swift heavy ions induce a high density of electronic excitations that can cause the formation of amorphous ion tracks in insulators. No ion tracks have been observed in the semiconductor SiC, but recent experimental work suggests that irradiation damaged SiC can undergo defect recovery under swift heavy ion irradiation. It is believed that local heating of the lattice due to the electronic energy deposition can anneal, and thereby recover, some of the disordered structure. We simulate the local heating due to the ions by the inelastic thermal spike model and perform molecular dynamics simulations of dierent model damage states to study the defect recovery on an atomistic level. We find significant recovery of point defects and a disordered layer, as well as recrystallization at the amorphous-to-crystalline interface of an amorphous layer. The simulation results support the swift heavy ion annealing hypothesis.Swift heavy ions induce a high density of electronic excitations that can cause the formation of amorphous ion tracks in insulators. No ion tracks have been observed in the semiconductor SiC, but recent experimental work suggests that irradiation damaged SiC can undergo defect recovery under swift heavy ion irradiation. It is believed that local heating of the lattice due to the electronic energy deposition can anneal, and thereby recover, some of the disordered structure. We simulate the local heating due to the ions by the inelastic thermal spike model and perform molecular dynamics simulations of dierent model damage states to study the defect recovery on an atomistic level. We find significant recovery of point defects and a disordered layer, as well as recrystallization at the amorphous-to-crystalline interface of an amorphous layer. The simulation results support the swift heavy ion annealing hypothesis.

  1. Investigation of Boundary Layer Scheme Usage Impact to Seasonal Precipitation over the Philippines Using 24-km WRF Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Acierto, R. A. E.; Koike, T.; Abdul Wahid, M. R.

    2015-12-01

    Boundary layer schemes in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model control the surface processes that determine the boundary layer environment necessary for convective initiation. This indirect impact of boundary layer scheme modulate some part of convection and precipitation. This study investigated the sensitivity impact of boundary layer scheme usage in predicting seasonal precipitation over the Philippines. The study used a 24-km resolution single-year hindcast experiment from June 2005 to May 2006. Ten boundary layer schemes were investigated from WRF version 3.5.1. This study evaluated the seasonal precipitation and 2-meter air temperature using 0.25 degree daily APHRODITE product. Diurnal cycle of surface variables were investigated to evaluate the capability of the boundary layer scheme in simulating surface processes in the simulations. Air temperature and relative humidity profiles were also compared against AIRS satellite data to validate the simulated atmospheric structure. Additionally, heat and moisture budget profile analysis using ERA-Interim as a reference was also done to investigate the coupling impact of default Grell-Freitas scheme with different boundary layer schemes. The evaluation of precipitation, atmospheric structure, and budget profiles allows better understanding of the impact of boundary layer scheme usage impact on the seasonal precipitation. The results of boundary layer scheme sensitivity show that it controls the modulation on the intensity of seasonal precipitation and modulation of heating and drying profiles. Mean precipitation structure and budget profiles are mainly dependent on the cumulus scheme used. Also, local TKE type schemes showed least overestimation in seasonal precipitation while non-local type schemes showed relatively high overestimation. This overestimation tendency seen on seasonal precipitation was also observed to be consistent with overestimation tendencies in the results of heat and moisture budget profile

  2. Evaluation of simulated acid precipitation effects on forest microcosms. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, J.M.; Strickland, R.C.; Weatherford, F.P.; Noggle, J.C.

    1984-04-01

    Microcosms were treated for a 30-month period with simulated precipitation acidified to four pH levels (5.7, 4.5, 4.0, and 3.5) to evaluate the impact of acid precipitation on foliar leaching, plant nutrient content, soil leaching, soil nutrient content, and litter decomposition. Direct effects of acid precipitation on diameter growth, bud break, leaf senescence, chlorophyll content, stomatal size, stomatal density, photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, and cuticle erosion were evaluated on tulip poplar, white oak, and Virginia pine seedlings growing as mixed stands in the microcosms. None of the plant physiological or morphological parameters evaluated responded in a statistically significant manner as a result of treatment. A significant treatment canopy interaction was observed in the form of a 60 percent increase in calcium input in throughfall in response to the pH 3.5 treatment. Foliar nutrient content did not change in response to treatment nor did field measurements of decomposer activity. Soil analysis indicated a significantly lower concentration of exchangeable calcium and magnesium in the top 3.5 cm of the mineral soil in association with the pH 3.5 treatment. Soil leachate concentrations exhibited significant increases at both the 25 and 50 cm depths. However, at the 100 cm depth no significant response in concentration or elemental loss from the system was observed. Laboratory respiration measurements indicated a small, but statistically significant reduction in decomposer activity in the lower litter (02) horizon. This reduction was masked in the field measurements of decomposer activity due to the relatively small contribution of the 02 to total soil respiration. 38 references, 12 figures, 18 tables.

  3. Numerical analysis corresponding with experiment in compact beam simulator for heavy ion inertial fusion driver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikuchi, T.; Sakai, Y.; Komori, T.; Sato, T.; Hasegawa, J.; Horioka, K.; Takahashi, K.; Sasaki, T.; Harada, Nob

    2016-05-01

    Tune depression in a compact beam equipment is estimated, and numerical simulation results are compared with an experimental one for the compact beam simulator in a driver of heavy ion inertial fusion. The numerical simulation with multi-particle tracking is carried out, corresponding to the experimental condition, and the result is discussed with the experimental one. It is expected that the numerical simulation developed in this paper is useful tool to investigate the beam dynamics in the experiment with the compact beam simulator.

  4. Numerical simulations of relativistic heavy-ion reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daffin, Frank Cecil

    Bulk quantities of nuclear matter exist only in the compact bodies of the universe. There the crushing gravitational forces overcome the Coulomb repulsion in massive stellar collapses. Nuclear matter is subjected to high pressures and temperatures as shock waves propagate and burn their way through stellar cores. The bulk properties of nuclear matter are important parameters in the evolution of these collapses, some of which lead to nucleosynthesis. The nucleus is rich in physical phenomena. Above the Coulomb barrier, complex interactions lead to the distortion of, and as collision energies increase, the destruction of the nuclear volume. Of critical importance to the understanding of these events is an understanding of the aggregate microscopic processes which govern them. In an effort to understand relativistic heavy-ion reactions, the Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (Ueh33) (BUU) transport equation is used as the framework for a numerical model. In the years since its introduction, the numerical model has been instrumental in providing a coherent, microscopic, physical description of these complex, highly non-linear events. This treatise describes the background leading to the creation of our numerical model of the BUU transport equation, details of its numerical implementation, its application to the study of relativistic heavy-ion collisions, and some of the experimental observables used to compare calculated results to empirical results. The formalism evolves the one-body Wigner phase-space distribution of nucleons in time under the influence of a single-particle nuclear mean field interaction and a collision source term. This is essentially the familiar Boltzmann transport equation whose source term has been modified to address the Pauli exclusion principle. Two elements of the model allow extrapolation from the study of nuclear collisions to bulk quantities of nuclear matter: the modification of nucleon scattering cross sections in nuclear matter, and the

  5. Assessment of WRF microphysics schemes to simulate extreme precipitation events from the perspective of GMI radiative signatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Shin, D. B.; Joh, M.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical simulations of precipitation depend to a large degree on the assumed cloud microphysics schemes representing the formation, growth and fallout of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Recent studies show that assumed cloud microphysics play a major role not only in forecasting precipitation, especially in cases of extreme precipitation events, but also in the quality of the passive microwave rainfall estimation. Evaluations of the various Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model microphysics schemes in this study are based on a method that was originally developed to construct the a-priori databases of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures (TBs) for precipitation retrievals. This methodology generates three-dimensional (3D) precipitation fields by matching the GPM dual frequency radar (DPR) reflectivity profiles with those calculated from cloud resolving model (CRM)-derived hydrometeor profiles. The method eventually provides 3D simulated precipitation fields over the DPR scan swaths. That is, atmospheric and hydrometeor profiles can be generated at each DPR pixel based on CRM and DPR reflectivity profiles. The generated raining systems over DPR observation fields can be applied to any radiometers that are unaccompanied with a radar for microwave radiative calculation with consideration of each sensor's channel and field of view. Assessment of the WRF model microphysics schemes for several typhoon cases in terms of emission and scattering signals of GMI will be discussed.

  6. Forcing and response in simulated 20th and 21st century surface energy and precipitation trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Timothy

    2009-09-01

    A simple methodology is applied to a transient integration of the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version1 (UKMO-HadGEM1) fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in order to separate forcing from climate response in simulated 20th century and future global mean surface energy and precipitation trends. Forcings include any fast responses that are caused by the forcing agent and that are independent of global temperature change. Results reveal that surface radiative forcing is dominated by shortwave forcing over the 20th and 21st centuries, which is strongly negative. However, when fast responses of surface turbulent heat fluxes are separated from climate feedbacks, and included in the forcing, net surface forcing becomes positive. The nonradiative forcings are the result of rapid surface and tropospheric adjustments and impact 20th century, as well as future, evaporation and precipitation trends. A comparison of energy balance changes in eight different climate models finds that all models exhibit a positive surface energy imbalance by the late 20th century. However, there is considerable disagreement in how this imbalance is partitioned between the longwave, shortwave, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes. In particular, all models show reductions in shortwave radiation absorbed at the surface by the late 20th century compared to the pre-industrial control state, but the spread of this reduction leads to differences in the sign of their latent heat flux changes and thus in the sign of their hydrological responses.

  7. Using Python to generate AHPS-based precipitation simulations over CONUS using Amazon distributed computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalek, P.; Kim, S. M.; Berry, R. D.; Liang, A.; Small, T.; Brevdo, E.; Kuznetsova, A.

    2012-12-01

    We describe how the Climate Corporation uses Python and Clojure, a language impleneted on top of Java, to generate climatological forecasts for precipitation based on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) radar based daily precipitation measurements. A 2-year-long forecasts is generated on each of the ~650,000 CONUS land based 4-km AHPS grids by constructing 10,000 ensembles sampled from a 30-year reconstructed AHPS history for each grid. The spatial and temporal correlations between neighboring AHPS grids and the sampling of the analogues are handled by Python. The parallelization for all the 650,000 CONUS stations is further achieved by utilizing the MAP-REDUCE framework (http://code.google.com/edu/parallel/mapreduce-tutorial.html). Each full scale computational run requires hundreds of nodes with up to 8 processors each on the Amazon Elastic MapReduce (http://aws.amazon.com/elasticmapreduce/) distributed computing service resulting in 3 terabyte datasets. We further describe how we have productionalized a monthly run of the simulations process at full scale of the 4km AHPS grids and how the resultant terabyte sized datasets are handled.

  8. Inhomogeneities detection in annual precipitation time series in Portugal using direct sequential simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Costa, Ana Cristina; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar

    2014-05-01

    Climate data homogenisation is of major importance in monitoring climate change, the validation of weather forecasting, general circulation and regional atmospheric models, modelling of erosion, drought monitoring, among other studies of hydrological and environmental impacts. This happens because non-climate factors can cause time series discontinuities which may hide the true climatic signal and patterns, thus potentially bias the conclusions of those studies. In the last two decades, many methods have been developed to identify and remove these inhomogeneities. One of those is based on geostatistical simulation (DSS - direct sequential simulation), where local probability density functions (pdf) are calculated at candidate monitoring stations, using spatial and temporal neighbouring observations, and then are used for detection of inhomogeneities. This approach has been previously applied to detect inhomogeneities in four precipitation series (wet day count) from a network with 66 monitoring stations located in the southern region of Portugal (1980-2001). This study revealed promising results and the potential advantages of geostatistical techniques for inhomogeneities detection in climate time series. This work extends the case study presented before and investigates the application of the geostatistical stochastic approach to ten precipitation series that were previously classified as inhomogeneous by one of six absolute homogeneity tests (Mann-Kendall test, Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, Von Neumann ratio test, Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) for a single break, Pettit test, and Buishand range test). Moreover, a sensibility analysis is implemented to investigate the number of simulated realisations that should be used to accurately infer the local pdfs. Accordingly, the number of simulations per iteration is increased from 50 to 500, which resulted in a more representative local pdf. A set of default and recommended settings is provided, which will help

  9. Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu; Wei, Min; Li, Qingquan

    2013-10-01

    This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV in 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.

  10. Simulating the transformation of heavy metals during coal or sewage sludge combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Han, J.; Xu, M.; Yao, H.; Furuuchi, M.; Sakano, T.; Kim, H.J.

    2007-01-15

    A mathematical model (FPM) is presented to predict the transformation of heavy metals in the downstream of combustor or incinerator. The model accounts for the transformation of heavy metals through the combined effect of condensation, nucleation, coagulation, external force and thermophoresis force. The calculation of heavy metals is embodied in the post-processor appended to Fluent software. Before the simulation, velocity, temperature, PbCl{sub 2} concentration and other initial parameters are obtained by experiment. In addition, the transformation of PbCl{sub 2} is also experimentally studied. The comparison of experimental and predicted results indicate that the fine particle model (FPM) is valid for predicting the transformation of heavy metals in the downstream of incinerator or combustor.

  11. Detection of inhomogeneities in precipitation time series in Portugal using direct sequential simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Sara; Caineta, Júlio; Costa, Ana Cristina; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar

    2016-05-01

    Climate data homogenisation is of major importance in climate change monitoring, validation of weather forecasting, general circulation and regional atmospheric models, modelling of erosion, drought monitoring, among other studies of hydrological and environmental impacts. The reason is that non-climate factors can cause time series discontinuities which may hide the true climatic signal and patterns, thus potentially bias the conclusions of those studies. In the last two decades, many methods have been developed to identify and remove these inhomogeneities. One of those is based on a geostatistical simulation technique (DSS - direct sequential simulation), where local probability density functions (pdfs) are calculated at candidate monitoring stations using spatial and temporal neighbouring observations, which then are used for the detection of inhomogeneities. Such approach has been previously applied to detect inhomogeneities in four precipitation series (wet day count) from a network with 66 monitoring stations located in the southern region of Portugal (1980-2001). That study revealed promising results and the potential advantages of geostatistical techniques for inhomogeneity detection in climate time series. This work extends the case study presented before and investigates the application of the geostatistical stochastic approach to ten precipitation series that were previously classified as inhomogeneous by one of six absolute homogeneity tests (Mann-Kendall, Wald-Wolfowitz runs, Von Neumann ratio, Pettitt, Buishand range test, and standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) for a single break). Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the number of simulated realisations which should be used to infer the local pdfs with more accuracy. Accordingly, the number of simulations per iteration was increased from 50 to 500, which resulted in a more representative local pdf. As in the previous study, the results are compared with those from the

  12. Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zarriello, P.J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

    2004-01-01

    Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored

  13. Effect of spatial resolution on the simulation of regional precipitation in China in a global climate model

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, G.L.; Sperber, K.R.; Boyle, J.S.; Hameed, S.

    1992-09-01

    In order to evaluate the consequences of climate change for agriculture and the economy we need to develop climate models capable of correctly simulating regional precipitation patterns. The deficiency of global climate models in the simulation of orographic precipitation may be related to the crudeness of model topography. Inadequacies in the parameterizations of physical processes cause additional errors in the calculation of orographic as well as frontal precipitation. In this study, we have investigated the role of model resolution in simulating the geographical distribution of precipitation over China. Comparisons are made between observations and the calculated precipitation fields in a seasonal run with climatological sea surface temperatures. This study describes results for June and July from 12 month simulations of the ECMWF model at the following four resolutions: T21 (5{times}5 degree), T42 (3{times}3 degree), T63 (2{times}2 degree) and T106 (1{times}1 degree). A description of this model is given by Simmons et. al. (1988). The various resolutions of the ECMWF model are virtually identical with the exception of the gravity wave drag (Palmer et al. 1986), vertical diffusion coefficients and orography. The T21 resolution lacks gravity wave drag completely.

  14. Modeling and Simulation Tools for Heavy Lift Airships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hochstetler, Ron; Chachad, Girish; Hardy, Gordon; Blanken, Matthew; Melton, John

    2016-01-01

    For conventional fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft a variety of modeling and simulation tools have been developed to provide designers the means to thoroughly investigate proposed designs and operational concepts. However, lighter-than-air (LTA) airships, hybrid air vehicles, and aerostats have some important aspects that are different from heavier-than-air (HTA) vehicles. In order to account for these differences, modifications are required to the standard design tools to fully characterize the LTA vehicle design and performance parameters.. To address these LTA design and operational factors, LTA development organizations have created unique proprietary modeling tools, often at their own expense. An expansion of this limited LTA tool set could be accomplished by leveraging existing modeling and simulation capabilities available in the National laboratories and public research centers. Development of an expanded set of publicly available LTA modeling and simulation tools for LTA developers would mitigate the reliance on proprietary LTA design tools in use today. A set of well researched, open source, high fidelity LTA design modeling and simulation tools would advance LTA vehicle development and also provide the analytical basis for accurate LTA operational cost assessments. This paper will present the modeling and analysis tool capabilities required for LTA vehicle design, analysis of operations, and full life-cycle support. A survey of the tools currently available will be assessed to identify the gaps between their capabilities and the LTA industry's needs. Options for development of new modeling and analysis capabilities to supplement contemporary tools will also be presented.

  15. Heavy precipitation and the responses within emergency management - a new approach for emergency planning and disaster prevention by utilizing fire brigade operation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    An increase of intense rainfall events in the center regions of Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change. Climate scenarios indicate also large seasonal and regional differences concerning the magnitude. Structural damages and financial loss resulting from heavy precipitation depend on natural parameters such as topography and vegetation cover of the specific area, but also on socio-economic parameters such as urbanized and industrialized areas, population density and the presence of critical infrastructure. In particular mudflows and floods cause damages such as flooded basements and streets, undercutting of roads or spilled sewage drains. The emergency management has to consider these effects appropriately. Commonly, this is the responsibilities is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units. Within their daily routines, numerous data is collected, but commonly not utilized for scientific purposes. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain area. One application is described in this study based on a example in Offenbach, Germany. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Therefore it is not easy to collect the overall incident data for a widespread affected area. To examine particular local effects of heavy precipitation events it is necessary to match the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) with the incident data of all effected fire brigades, which sometimes is impeded by the usual resolution of meteorological data. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades has been developed for the Rhine-Main-Area. This area is one of the largest metropolitan regions in Germany with a very high density in population as well as

  16. Are high-resolution NASA Unified WRF simulations credible tools for predicting extreme precipitation over the Great Plains?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, H.; Waliser, D. E.; Case, J.; Iguchi, T.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate simulation of extreme weather events remains a challenge in climate models. Previous studies indicate that regional climate models better reproduce extreme precipitation with their higher spatial resolution than coarser resolution global climate models. This study utilized radar-based hourly precipitation data with a resolution of 4 km to evaluate rainfall characteristics simulated with NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model at horizontal resolutions of 24, 12 and 4 km. We also examined the impact of spectral nudging on the performance of NU-WRF. The rainfall characteristics in the observations and simulations were defined as a joint probability distribution function (JPDF) between duration and peak intensity of precipitation events over the Great Plains in summer. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is an open source software suite developed jointly by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the University of California, Los Angeles. RCMES facilitates evaluation of NU-WRF evaluations by providing tools to process a vast amount of observational and model datasets with high resolutions. Using RCMES, we calculated JPDF for each dataset and the overlapping area between observed and simulated JPDFs to measure the similarity between the two JPDFs. The performance of NU-WRF simulations based on the precipitation JPDF is strongly dependent on their resolutions. The simulation with the highest resolution of 4 km shows the best agreement with the observations with the same resolution in simulating short-duration downpour events over the Great Plains. Our analysis indicates that even the regridded high-resolution simulation on low-resolution grids shows better performance than low-resolution simulations. The simulations with lower resolutions of 12 and 24 km show reasonable agreement only with the observational data whose resolutions are similar to the simulations.

  17. Using computer simulations to study relativistic heavy ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, Joelle Lynn

    1998-12-01

    One of the most exciting topics in high-energy nuclear physics is the study of the potential phase transition between hadronic and partonic matter. Information about this transition, if it exists and can be experimentally determined, would be vital in understanding confinement of quarks and gluons inside hadrons. New accelerators, RHIC and LIIC, will be online in the next few years and will focus on finding evidence for this transition. RHIC will collide Au on Au at center of mass energies equal to 200 GeV/nucleon and create a high density, high temperature state of matter. To study the large particle multiplicities that will occur at these experiments, computer simulations are being developed. Within this thesis, one type of simulation will be detailed and used to study the invariant mass spectrum of leptons pairs measured at CERN SPS and several hadronic observables that could be measured at RHIC.

  18. Computer simulation of stress-oriented nucleation and growth of {theta}{prime} precipitates in Al-Cu alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Li, D.Y.; Chen, L.Q.

    1998-05-01

    Many structural transformations result in several orientation variants whose volume fractions and distributions can be controlled by applied stresses during nucleation, growth or coarsening. Depending on the type of stress and the coupling between the applied stress and the lattice misfit strain, the precipitate variants may be aligned parallel or perpendicular to the stress axis. This paper reports their studies on the effect of applied stresses on nucleation and growth of coherent {theta}{prime} precipitates in Al-Cu alloys using computer simulations based on a diffuse-interface phase-field kinetic model. In this model, the orientational differences among precipitate variants are distinguished by non-conserved structural field variables, whereas the compositional difference between the precipitate and matrix is described by a conserved field variable. The temporal evolution of the spatially dependent field variables is determined by numerically solving the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) equations for the structural variables and the Cahn-Hilliard diffusion equation for composition. Random noises were introduced in both the composition and the structural order parameter fields to simulate the nucleation of {theta}{prime} precipitates. It is demonstrated that although an applied stress affects the microstructural development of a two-phase alloy during both the nucleation and growth stages, it is most effective to apply stresses during the initial nucleation stage for producing anisotropic precipitate alignment.

  19. Modulation of Cloud Phase, Precipitation and Radiation by Ice Nuclei Perturbations in High Resolution Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paukert, M.; Hoose, C.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of cloud phase determines a multitude of cloud properties, such as albedo, precipitation and temporal evolution. The crucial role of primary ice formation has been recognized decades ago, yet only in the last years our knowledge has reached a level that allows for approximate estimations of the aerosol-dependent effect of ice nucleation in high resolution cloud simulations. However, besides primary formation of cloud particles, also their thermodynamic trajectories as well as particle-particle interactions are determinants of the cloud phase. Although the conversion of liquid to ice in the mixed-phase regime is unidirectional, a perturbation in the primary ice formation (with increased aerosol concentrations as a trigger) does not necessarily yield higher ice fractions. This can be attributed to the modified efficiencies of depositional particle growth, liquid-ice-collisions and particle sedimentation. Consequently a modified mixed-phase regime impacts both warm (T>0°C) and cold (T<-40°C) parts of the atmosphere by sedimentation and vertical advection, respectively. Our study is motivated by the question how the liquid-ice partitioning is modulated by perturbed ice nuclei concentrations. By suppressing the feedback of microphysical perturbations on the model dynamics we are able to extract the microphysical effects. We define different microphysical regimes based on liquid and ice mass changes in order to analyze the processes which have led to those regimes. We find that conversion via the vapor phase is dominant only in distinct temperature regimes, while liquid mass changes are often linked to riming-dominated regimes, and sedimentation efficiencies make an important contribution to ice mass changes which finally determine the surface precipitation via melting. For our case of deep convection, cloud albedo is highly sensitive to the amount of small droplets reaching the homogeneous freezing level. We investigated simulations of three

  20. Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

  1. Separation of aromatic precipitates from simulated high level radioactive waste by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction

    SciTech Connect

    Young, S.R.; Shah, H.B.; Carter, J.T.

    1991-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the SRS will be the United States' first facility to process High Level radioactive Waste (HLW) into a borosilicate glass matrix. The removal of aromatic precipitates by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction will be a key step in the processing of the HLW. This step, titled the Precipitate Hydrolysis Process, has been demonstrated by the Savannah River Laboratory with the Precipitate Hydrolysis Experimental Facility (PHEF). The mission of the PHEF is to demonstrate processing of simulated high level radioactive waste which contains tetraphenylborate precipitates and nitrite. Reduction of nitrite by hydroxylamine nitrate and hydrolysis of the tetraphenylborate by formic acid is discussed. Gaseous production, which is primarily benzene, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, has been quantified. Production of high-boiling organic compounds and the accumulation of these organic compounds within the process are addressed.

  2. Separation of aromatic precipitates from simulated high level radioactive waste by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction

    SciTech Connect

    Young, S.R.; Shah, H.B.; Carter, J.T.

    1991-12-31

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the SRS will be the United States` first facility to process High Level radioactive Waste (HLW) into a borosilicate glass matrix. The removal of aromatic precipitates by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction will be a key step in the processing of the HLW. This step, titled the Precipitate Hydrolysis Process, has been demonstrated by the Savannah River Laboratory with the Precipitate Hydrolysis Experimental Facility (PHEF). The mission of the PHEF is to demonstrate processing of simulated high level radioactive waste which contains tetraphenylborate precipitates and nitrite. Reduction of nitrite by hydroxylamine nitrate and hydrolysis of the tetraphenylborate by formic acid is discussed. Gaseous production, which is primarily benzene, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, has been quantified. Production of high-boiling organic compounds and the accumulation of these organic compounds within the process are addressed.

  3. Reduction on the anaerobic biological activity inhibition caused by heavy metals and sulphates in effluents through chemical precipitation with soda and lime.

    PubMed

    Alves, L de Carvalho; Cammarota, M C; De França, F P

    2006-12-01

    The School of Chemistry Environmental Technology Laboratory generates 43.4 1 of effluent with low pH (0.7) and high contents of COD (1908 mgO2 l(-1)), phenol (132.1 mg l(-1)), sulfate (36700 mg l(-1)) and heavy metals (28.2 mg Hg l(-1); 82.1 mg Cr(total) l(-1); 30.8 mg Cu l(-1); 57.4 mg Fe(total) l(-1); 16.2 mg Al l(-1)) weekly. These data show that this effluent presents high toxicity for biological treatment, with a physical-chemical step being necessary before a biological step. Preliminary studies showed that the most toxic constituents of the effluent were sulfate, phenol and total chromium. In this work, a chemical precipitation step with sodium hydroxide or lime was evaluated for the toxicity reduction on anaerobic microbial consortium. These experiments were carried out with increasing concentrations of alkalis in the effluent in order to obtain pH initial values of 8-12. Similar results were obtained for COD (15-28%), turbidity (95-98%), phenol (13-24%) and total chromium (99.8-99.9%) removals in each condition studied with soda or lime. Sulfate was only removed by precipitation with lime, obtaining reductions from 84 to 88%. The toxicity on the anaerobic sludge was studied employing specific methanogenic activity (SMA) analysis of raw and treated effluent (after chemical precipitation step). The SMA experiments showed that chemical precipitation at pH 8 reduces the toxic effect of the effluent on anaerobic microbial consortium three times (with soda) and thirteen times (with lime). These results indicate that precipitation with lime is more efficient at toxicity removal, however the produced sludge volume is around two times higher than that produced with soda.

  4. Reduction on the anaerobic biological activity inhibition caused by heavy metals and sulphates in effluents through chemical precipitation with soda and lime.

    PubMed

    Alves, L de Carvalho; Cammarota, M C; De França, F P

    2006-12-01

    The School of Chemistry Environmental Technology Laboratory generates 43.4 1 of effluent with low pH (0.7) and high contents of COD (1908 mgO2 l(-1)), phenol (132.1 mg l(-1)), sulfate (36700 mg l(-1)) and heavy metals (28.2 mg Hg l(-1); 82.1 mg Cr(total) l(-1); 30.8 mg Cu l(-1); 57.4 mg Fe(total) l(-1); 16.2 mg Al l(-1)) weekly. These data show that this effluent presents high toxicity for biological treatment, with a physical-chemical step being necessary before a biological step. Preliminary studies showed that the most toxic constituents of the effluent were sulfate, phenol and total chromium. In this work, a chemical precipitation step with sodium hydroxide or lime was evaluated for the toxicity reduction on anaerobic microbial consortium. These experiments were carried out with increasing concentrations of alkalis in the effluent in order to obtain pH initial values of 8-12. Similar results were obtained for COD (15-28%), turbidity (95-98%), phenol (13-24%) and total chromium (99.8-99.9%) removals in each condition studied with soda or lime. Sulfate was only removed by precipitation with lime, obtaining reductions from 84 to 88%. The toxicity on the anaerobic sludge was studied employing specific methanogenic activity (SMA) analysis of raw and treated effluent (after chemical precipitation step). The SMA experiments showed that chemical precipitation at pH 8 reduces the toxic effect of the effluent on anaerobic microbial consortium three times (with soda) and thirteen times (with lime). These results indicate that precipitation with lime is more efficient at toxicity removal, however the produced sludge volume is around two times higher than that produced with soda. PMID:17285944

  5. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    DOE PAGES

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubsmore » and an increase in surface air temperature.« less

  6. Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part I: model output statistics for monthly data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, Heiko

    2011-04-01

    Rainfall represents an important factor in agriculture and food security, particularly, in the low latitudes. Climatological and hydrological studies which attempt to diagnose the hydrological cycle, require high-quality precipitation data. In West Africa, like in many parts of the world, the density of observational data is low and climate models are needed in order to perform homogeneous and complete data sets. However, climate models tend to produce systematic errors, especially, in terms of rainfall and cloud processes, which are usually approximated by physical parameterizations. In this study, a 25-year climatology of monthly precipitation in West Africa is presented, derived from a regional climate model simulation, and evaluated with respect to observational data. It is found that the model systematically underestimates the rainfall amount and variability and does not capture some details of the seasonal cycle in sub-Saharan West Africa. Thus, in its present form the precipitation climatology is not appropriate to draw a realistic picture of the hydrological cycle in West Africa nor to serve as input data for impact research. Therefore, a statistical model is developed in order to adjust the simulated rainfall data to the characteristics of observed precipitation. Assuming that the regional climate model is much more reliable in terms of atmospheric circulation and thermodynamics, model output statistics is used to correct simulated rainfall by means of other simulated parameters of the near-surface climate like temperature, sea level pressure and wind components. Monthly data is adjusted by a cross-validated multiple regression model. The resulting adjusted rainfall climatology reveals a substantial improvement in terms of the model deficiencies mentioned above. In part II of this publication, the characteristics of simulated daily precipitation is adapted to station data by applying a weather generator. Once the postprocessing approach is trained, it can

  7. Evaluation of CRM-Simulated Cloud and Precipitation Structures Using Multi-sensor TRMM Retrievals: Implications for Model Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Posselt, D.

    2008-12-01

    Cloud resolving models are typically used to examine the characteristics of clouds and precipitation and their relationship to radiation and the large-scale circulation. As such, they are not required to reproduce the exact location of each observed convective system, much less each individual cloud. Some of the most relevant information about clouds and precipitation is provided by instruments located on polar-orbiting satellite platforms, but these observations are intermittent 'snapshots' in time, making assessment of model performance challenging. In contrast to direct comparison, model results can be evaluated statistically. This avoids the requirement for the model to reproduce the observed systems, while returning valuable information on the performance of the model in a climate-relevant sense. The focus of this talk is a model evaluation study, in which updates to the microphysics scheme used in the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are evaluated using statistics of observed clouds, precipitation, and radiation. We first present the results of multiday simulations of organized deep convection using the current GCE cloud microphysical scheme. Statistics of TRMM multi-sensor derived clouds, precipitation, and radiative fluxes are used to evaluate the GCE results. Results of simulations using a new single- and double- moment bulk cloud microphysical scheme are then presented, and these simulations are compared with observations and with the control simulation. We conclude with a demonstration of how data assimilation techniques can be used to examine uncertainty in model parameterizations, and provide a pathway toward model improvement.

  8. Simulation of spray dispersion in a simplified heavy vehicle wake

    SciTech Connect

    Paschkewitz, J S

    2006-01-13

    Simulations of spray dispersion in a simplified tractor-trailer wake have been completed with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of how to mitigate this safety hazard. The Generic Conventional Model (GCM) for the tractor-trailer was used. The impact of aerodynamic drag reduction devices, specifically trailer-mounted base flaps, on the transport of spray in the vehicle wake was considered using the GCM. This analysis demonstrated that base flaps including a bottom plate may actually worsen motorist visibility because of the interaction of fine spray with large vortex flows in the wake. This work suggests that to use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to design and evaluate spray mitigation strategies the jet or sheet breakup processes can be modeled using an array of injectors of small (< 0.1 mm) water droplets; however the choice of size distribution, injection locations, directions and velocities is largely unknown and requires further study. Possible containment strategies would include using flow structures to 'focus' particles into regions away from passing cars or surface treatments to capture small drops.

  9. Non-stationarities of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events in the second half of the 20th century related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkenschlager, Christian; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

    2015-04-01

    In the context of analysing temporally varying relationships of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area and associated anomalies of the large-scale atmospheric circulation, quantile regression models (QRMs) have been established. Different circulation and thermodynamic variables at the 700hPa and 850hPa levels of the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis dataset (predictors) as well as daily precipitation time series of different weather stations in the Mediterranean area (predictand) have been used in these regression models. Special emphasis is put on non-stationarities in the relationships of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and heavy precipitation events. Based on rainfall time series tested for homogeneity and completeness, a s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) yields 22 regions of similar precipitation variability for the winter season. The station with the highest PC loading represents the reference station for each region. S-mode PCAs have also been applied to reduce dimensions of the predictor data. The areas of high PC loadings reflect corresponding spatial centres of variation and their time coefficients (scores) are used as predictors in the QRMs. Since the daily precipitation sums are not Gaussian distributed, a three-step censored quantile regression is used to assess the different quantiles. The zero precipitation line represents the censor. By means of the Censored Quantile Verification Skill Score (CQVSS) as a measure of goodness, the best combination of predictor variables can be determined. Mostly, a combination of one thermodynamic predictor and one circulation predictor provides the highest scores whereas an additional predictor does not lead to any significant improvement. In a next step, the number of PCs for both predictors has been determined according to their significance on the level of α=0.01 for every quantile. In the scope of assessing non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships, the time series are divided

  10. The Robust Dynamical Contribution to Precipitation Extremes in Idealized Warming Simulations across Model Resolutions

    SciTech Connect

    Lu, Jian; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yang, Qing; Chen, Gang; Collins, William D.; Li, Fuyu; Hou, Zhangshuan; Feng, Xuelei

    2014-04-28

    The impact of the circulation shift under climate warming on the distribution of precipitation extremes and the associated sensitivity to model resolution are investigated using the aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model CAM3. The response of the probability density function of the precipitation to a uniform SST warming can be interpreted as superimposition of a dynamically induced poleward shift and a thermodynamically induced upward shift toward higher intensities, which give rise to manyfold increase in the frequency of the most extreme categories of the precipitation events at the poleward side of the midlatitude storm track. Meanwhile, the thermodynamic contribution to the intensification of the precipitation extremes is substantially less than expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, implicative of significant change in the vertical structure of the precipitation processes. While coarser resolutions underestimate the dynamical contribution to the increase of precipitation extremes, a modest increase of the equator-to-pole SST warming gradient can have a significant opposite effect.

  11. Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.- K.; Johnson, D.

    1998-01-01

    Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere, The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics, Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate models simulate cloud processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMS) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and cloud systems, The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momenti,im budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (CCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (using 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km depth) in the vertical, The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations are performed over a 7 day time period. We will examine (1) the precipitation processes (i.e., condensation/evaporation) and their interaction with warm pool; (2) the heating and moisture budgets in the convective and

  12. Evaluation of Merging Methods of Remotely Sensed and Gauged Precipitation for Rainfall Runoff Simulation in Da River Basin, Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hieu, B. T.; Ishidaira, H.

    2014-12-01

    Precipitation would be one of the major sources of uncertainty for hydrological analysis since precipitation is the main input of the hydrological models, in that sense, is one of the first factors controlling the accuracy of Rainfall Run-off (R-R) modeling. However, sparse meteorological data in un-gauged or poorly gauged basins has been a long concerning issue that bottlenecks the quantification of the hydrological budget. In recent decades, remote sensing techniques with their broad spatial coverage and repeat temporal coverage would grasp well the spatial distribution of precipitation over the river basin. However, remote sensing rainfall estimates are not direct measurements of rainfall that are subjects to variety of error sources and exhibit the limitation for rainfall budget accuracy. Therefore, it is appealing to incorporate the precision of point measurements of the local rainfall stations with the fine spatial distribution of satellite-based rainfall estimates to obtain a good quality of precipitation field in space and time to take the advantages of the both two datasets. The aim of my research is blending the remote sensing satellite precipitation, GsMAP-MVK (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation moving vector with Kalman filter) with a very high spatial distribution, with the local rainfall measurements for improvement of quantitative rainfall estimates and run-off predictions capability. Several satellite-gauge merging methods with various complexity degrees: from linear merging, power transformation merging to geo-statistical merging techniques were utilized to provide the precipitation input for conceptual hydrological model HBV for run-off simulation in Da river basin in Vietnam. The Geo-statistical merging methods give the best results for stream-flow simulation. Key Words: Remote sensed satellite data, hydrological model, un-gauged basin, bias correction.

  13. Future changes in regional precipitation simulated by a half-degree coupled climate model: Sensitivity to horizontal resolution

    DOE PAGES

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Meehl, Gerald A.

    2016-06-02

    The global fully coupled half-degree Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4) was integrated for a suite of climate change ensemble simulations including five historical runs, five Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 [RCP8.5) runs, and a long Pre-Industrial control run. This study focuses on precipitation at regional scales and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. The half-degree historical CCSM4 simulations are compared to observations, where relevant, and to the standard 1° CCSM4. Both the halfdegree and 1° resolutions are coupled to a nominal 1° ocean. North American and South Asian/Indian monsoon regimes are highlighted because these regimes demonstrate improvements due to highermore » resolution, primarily because of better-resolved topography. Agriculturally sensitive areas are analyzed and include Southwest, Central, and Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australia. Both mean and extreme precipitation is discussed for convective and large-scale precipitation processes. Convective precipitation tends to decrease with increasing resolution and large-scale precipitation tends to increase. Improvements for the half-degree agricultural regions can be found for mean and extreme precipitation in the Southeast U.S., Southern Europe, and Australian regions. Climate change responses differ between the model resolutions for the U.S. Southwest/Central regions and are seasonally dependent in the Southeast and Australian regions. Both resolutions project a clear drying signal across Southern Europe due to increased greenhouse warming. As a result, differences between resolutions tied to the representation of convective and large-scale precipitation play an important role in the character of the climate change and depend on regional influences.« less

  14. Comparison of Precipitable Water Vapor Observations by GPS, Radiosonde and NWP Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Chang-Geun; Baek, Jeongho; Cho, Jungho

    2009-12-01

    Precipitable water vapor (PWV) derived from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model were compared to observations derived from ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. The model data compared were from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model short-range forecasts on nested grids. The numerical experiments were performed by selecting the cloud microphysics schemes and for the comparisons, the Changma period of 2008 was selected. The observational data were derived from GPS measurements at 9-sites in South Korea over a 1-month period, in the middle of June-July 2008. In general, the WRF model demonstrated considerable skill in reproducing the temporal and spatial evolution of the PWV as depicted by the GPS estimations. The correlation between forecasts and GPS estimates of PWV depreciated slowly with increasing forecast times. Comparing simulations with a resolution of 18 km and 6 km showed no obvious PWV dependence on resolution. Besides, GPS and the model PWV data were found to be in quite good agreement with data derived from radiosondes. These results indicated that the GPS-derived PWV data, with high temporal and spatial resolution, are very useful for meteorological applications.

  15. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Simulations on Multiphase Flow in Mechanically Agitated Seed Precipitation Tank

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Hong-Liang; Liu, Yan; Zhang, Ting-An; Gu, Songqing; Zhang, Chao

    2014-07-01

    The large-scale mechanically agitated tank has been widely used in the decomposition process of sodium aluminate solution in the alumina industry. The mixing process in three types of seed precipitation tanks (Robin, Ekato, and improved Ekato) stirred with multiple impellers was compared by using computational fluid dynamics, respectively. The flow field, solid distribution, mixing time, and power consumption were numerically simulated by adopting a Eulerian granular multiphase model and a standard k- ɛ turbulence model. A steady multiple reference frame approach was used to represent impeller rotation. Compared with the Robin tank, the Ekato tank can generate an axial circulation loop, which is better for fluid mixing and solid suspension; meanwhile about half of the power can be saved. With future improvements in the Ekato tank, the fluid mixing and exchanging can be enhanced under the interaction of a lengthened Intermig impeller coupled with sloped baffles. With a little increase in power consumption, the maximum of the relative solid concentration difference in the whole tank can be maintained within 3%, which meets the design requirement.

  16. Impact of the ongoing Amazonian deforestation on local precipitation: A GCM simulation study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walker, G. K.; Sud, Y. C.; Atlas, R.

    1995-01-01

    Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM) that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm/d (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm/d (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2 day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages.

  17. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.-K.; Li, X.; Khain, A.; Mastsui, T.; Lang, S.; Simpson, J.

    2007-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 20011. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. ln this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific. In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection.

  18. The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, X.; Matsui, T.

    2012-01-01

    identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

  19. Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Kuligowski, Robert J.; Langston, Carrie

    2013-01-01

    The NASA Short ]term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real ]time configuration of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) with the Noah land surface model (LSM). Output from the SPoRT ]LIS run is used to initialize land surface variables for local modeling applications at select National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices, and can be displayed in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring. The SPoRT ]LIS is run over a domain covering the southern and eastern United States, fully nested within the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Stage IV precipitation analysis grid, which provides precipitation forcing to the offline LIS ]Noah runs. The SPoRT Center seeks to expand the real ]time LIS domain to the entire Continental U.S. (CONUS); however, geographical limitations with the Stage IV analysis product have inhibited this expansion. Therefore, a goal of this study is to test alternative precipitation forcing datasets that can enable the LIS expansion by improving upon the current geographical limitations of the Stage IV product. The four precipitation forcing datasets that are inter ]compared on a 4 ]km resolution CONUS domain include the Stage IV, an experimental GOES quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) from NESDIS/STAR, the National Mosaic and QPE (NMQ) product from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS ]2) analyses. The NLDAS ]2 dataset is used as the control run, with each of the other three datasets considered experimental runs compared against the control. The regional strengths, weaknesses, and biases of each precipitation analysis are identified relative to the NLDAS ]2 control in terms of accumulated precipitation pattern and amount, and the impacts on the subsequent LSM spin ]up simulations. The ultimate goal is to identify an alternative precipitation forcing dataset that can best support an

  20. Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chern, Jiun-Dar

    2005-01-01

    An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

  1. Antioxidant responses to simulated acid rain and heavy metal deposition in birch seedlings.

    PubMed

    Koricheva, J; Roy, S; Vranjic, J A; Haukioja, E; Hughes, P R; Hänninen, O

    1997-01-01

    This study measured the responses of different anti-oxidants in 2-year-old birch (Betula pendula Roth) seedlings subjected to simulated acid rain (pH 4.0) and heavy metals (Cu/Ni), applied alone or in combination for 2 months. The applied concentrations of pollutants did not significantly affect seedling biomass or total glutathione levels. Acid rain alone increased superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity both in leaves and roots, while heavy metals alone inhibited SOD activity in roots. Both acid rain and heavy metals applied singly increased ascorbate peroxidase (APX) and guaiacol peroxidase (GPX) activities in leaves but decreased activities in roots. In contrast, acid rain and heavy metal treatments increased glutathione reductase (GR) activity in roots but not in leaves. Spraying birch seedlings with a mixture of acid rain and heavy metals increased SOD, APX and GPX activities in leaves and GR activity in roots. However, the effects of mixed pollutants on enzyme activities usually were less than the summed effects of individual pollutants. Enzyme responses also depended on where pollutants were applied: spraying pollutants onto the shoots initiated higher responses in SOD, APX and GPX than did application to the soil surface, while the opposite was true for GR.

  2. A Hybrid Approach for Precipitation Simulation Using the Multi-site Neyman-Scott Rainfall Pulse Model and the Analog Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaheil, Y. H.; Lohmann, D.; Goteti, G.; Katz, B. G.; RMS Model Dev Team

    2011-12-01

    The Multi-site Neyman-Scott Rainfall Pulse model (MNSRP) was previously implemented in many studies over different climate zones and is known for its capability to accurately capture the statistical and the geostatistical properties of the precipitation process up to the third moment, which is a key factor in extreme precipitation analysis. However, due to the purely stochastic nature of the model, larger spatial precipitation patterns cannot be captured, especially when the model is implemented over large regions. The Analog Method (AM) uses observed precipitation EOFs to accurately simulate precipitation spatially. The quality of the AM simulations suffers in arid and semi-arid regions where the statistical properties of the precipitation process are harder to capture. The Hybrid Approach (HA) uses the AM simulations to locally rank the MNSRP simulations for each month. Case studies in different climatic regions in the US show that the new approach compares favorably to each individual model.

  3. Use of High-Resolution Satellite Observations to Evaluate Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Tao, W.; Hou, A. Y.; Zeng, X.; Shie, C.

    2007-12-01

    The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for different environmental conditions, i.e., the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX), CRYSTAL-FACE, and KAWJEX are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and as well as cloud observations from the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. The model presents large discrepancies in rain spectrum and vertical hydrometer profiles. The discrepancy in the precipitation field is also consistent with the cloud and radiation observations. The study will focus on the effects of large scale forcing and microphysics to the simulated model- observation discrepancies.

  4. Evaluation of Continental Precipitation in 20th-Century Climate Simulations: The Utility of Multi-Model Statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T J; Gleckler, P J

    2005-11-01

    At the request of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), simulations of 20th-century climate have been performed recently with some 20 global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. In view of its central importance for biological and socio-economic systems, model-simulated continental precipitation is evaluated relative to three observational estimates at both global and regional scales. Many models are found to display systematic biases, deviating markedly from the observed spatial variability and amplitude/phase of the seasonal cycle. However, the point-wise ensemble mean of all the models usually shows better statistical agreement with the observations than does any single model. Deficiencies of current models that may be responsible for the simulated precipitation biases as well as possible reasons for the improved estimate afforded by the multi-model ensemble mean are discussed. Implications of these results for water-resource managers also are briefly addressed.

  5. Pore-scale simulation of calcium carbonate precipitation and dissolution under highly supersaturated conditions in a microfludic pore network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, H.; Dewers, T. A.; Valocchi, A. J.; Werth, C. J.

    2011-12-01

    Dissolved CO2 during geological CO2 storage may react with minerals in fractured rocks or confined aquifers and cause mineral precipitation. The overall rate of reaction can be affected by coupled processes among hydrodynamics, transport, and reactions at pore-scale. Pore-scale models of coupled fluid flow, reactive transport, and CaCO3 precipitation and dissolution are applied to account for transient experimental results of CaCO3 precipitation and dissolution under highly supersaturated conditions in a microfluidic pore network (i.e., micromodel). Pore-scale experiments in the micromodel are used as a basis for understanding coupled physics of systems perturbed by geological CO2 injection. In the micromodel, precipitation is induced by transverse mixing along the centerline in pore bodies. Overall, the pore-scale model qualitatively captured the governing physics of reactions such as precipitate morphology, precipitation rate, and maximum precipitation area in first few pore spaces. In particular, we found that proper estimation of the effective diffusion coefficient and the reactive surface area is necessary to adequately simulate precipitation and dissolution rates. As the model domain increases, the effect of flow patterns affected by precipitation on the overall reaction rate also increases. The model is also applied to account for the effect of different reaction rate laws on mineral precipitation and dissolution at pore-scale. Reaction rate laws tested include the linear rate law, nonlinear power law, and newly-developed rate law based on in-situ measurements at nano scale in the literature. Progress on novel methods for upscaling pore-scale models for reactive transport are discussed, and are being applied to mineral precipitation patterns observed in natural analogues. H.Y. and T. D. were supported as part of the Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of

  6. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann M.; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

    2011-01-01

    The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

  7. Interannual variability of precipitation over North America and its relationship to sea surface temperatures from GCM and RCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika; Kucharski, Fred

    2015-04-01

    An ensemble of future climate projections performed with GCMs and RCMs is used to analyze changes in the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and inter-annual variability of precipitation over North America during winter (November to March). We analyze the influence of the interaction between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the precipitation over Mexico and North America. As in observations, GCM simulations reproduce reasonably well how PDO modulates ENSO teleconnections during the historical period, reproducing strong atmospheric and precipitation responses during constructive ENSO-PDO interference (El Niño and a positive PDO, or La Niña with negative PDO). Conversely, signals tend to be weak during destructive ENSO-PDO interference (El Niño with a negative PDO and La Niña with a positive PDO). An intensification of the PDO signal on SST anomalies in the future (2051-2100) compared to the historical simulations is found in the ensemble of models. Future warmer SST conditions produce a stronger response in precipitation to El Niño and positive PDO, thus, increasing the variability in the regions of North America with teleconnection (mainly over Norhtern Mexico, California and Southwest USA). This future change on interannual variability is in part due to a more important role of PDO on precipitation over these regions, compared to the historical simulations. RCM simulations generally confirm these conclusions, but the changes are more pronounced in the RCM than the GCM projections.

  8. Modelling and simulation of heavy gas dispersion on the basis of modifications in plume path theory.

    PubMed

    Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

    2000-12-30

    An analytical model for heavy gas dispersion based on the modifications in plume path theory has been developed. The model takes into account the variations in temperature, density, and specific heat during the movement of heavy gas plume. The model has been tested for three hazardous gases - chlorine, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The results have been compared with the recently generated experimental data as also with the outputs of other models. A good agreement is observed qualitatively as well as quantitatively. A study has also been carried out to simulate the effect of the wind speed, density of the gas, and venting speed on dispersion. Based on the simulation study a set of empirical equations has been developed. The equations are validated by theoretical as well as experimental studies. PMID:11080566

  9. [Distribution of heavy metals in PM10 and its release in the simulated acid rain].

    PubMed

    Feng, Xi-dan; Dang, Zhi; Wang, Huan-xiang; Lu, Yan-bo; Lü, Xan-wen; Huang, Wei-lin

    2006-12-01

    The distribution of heavy metals in inhalable particulate matter (PM10), which were collected in Foshan during December of 2004, was characterized by scanning electron microscope-X-ray energy dispersive analysis technique (SEM-EDS) and inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). The releases of Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd were also examined for their potential releases in simulated acid rain, which were quantified with batch reactors. The results showed that the daily average concentration of PM10 was 0.19 mg/m(3), about 79% higher than the secondary standard of China. The relatively contents of Zn and Pb in PM10 were much higher than Cd and Zn, whereas the releasing rates of Cd and Zn in simulated acid rain were greater than that of Cu and Pb. The releasing rates of heavy metals from PM10 were increased as the pH of the acid rain decreased.

  10. Simulation of water movement and isoproturon behaviour in a heavy clay soil using the MACRO model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besien, T. J.; Jarvis, N. J.; Williams, R. J.

    In this paper, the dual-porosity MACRO model has been used to investigate methods of reducing leaching of isoproturon from a structured heavy clay soil. The MACRO model was applied to a pesticide leaching data-set generated from a plot scale experiment on a heavy clay soil at the Oxford University Farm, Wytham, England. The field drain was found to be the most important outflow from the plot in terms of pesticide removal. Therefore, this modelling exercise concentrated on simulating field drain flow. With calibration of field-saturated and micropore saturated hydraulic conductivity, the drain flow hydrographs were simulated during extended periods of above average rainfall, with both the hydrograph shape and peak flows agreeing well. Over the whole field season, the observed drain flow water budget was well simulated. However, the first and second drain flow events after pesticide application were not simulated satisfactorily. This is believed to be due to a poor simulation of evapotranspiration during a period of low rainfall around the pesticide application day. Apart from an initial rapid drop in the observed isoproturon soil residue, the model simulated isoproturon residues during the 100 days after pesticide application reasonably well. Finally, the calibrated model was used to show that changes in agricultural practice (deep ploughing, creating fine consolidated seed beds and organic matter applications) could potentially reduce pesticide leaching to surface waters by up to 60%.

  11. Monte Carlo Simulation of the Heavy Ion Sensor on Solar Orbiter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broiles, T. W.; Livi, S. A.

    2011-12-01

    In preparation for the launch of Solar Orbiter in 2017 or 2018, we have begun development of the Heavy Ion Sensor (HIS) as a part of the Solar Wind Analyzer (SWA) instrument suite. HIS is capable of making full three-dimensional distribution measurements of the heavy ion population in the solar wind every 5 minutes. Specifically, it does this by differentiating the solar wind into energy-per-charge bins, using an electrostatic analyzer (ESA), then flying the particle through a time-of-flight (TOF) chamber to measure their speeds, and finally collecting the particles in a solid-state detector (SSD) to measure the particles' final energy. The particles interact with carbon foils at the start and end of the TOF chamber and in the dead layer of the SSD, creating uncertainty in the measurement of TOF and energy. This uncertainty can be estimated through the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) simulations. Additionally, the SSD is unlikely to observe the full kinetic energy of heavy ions due to the pulse height defect and electronic noise. In our Monte Carlo simulation, we characterize the PHD by an average energy loss [Daoudi et al., 2009] and a spread of the observed energy distribution, which are both mass and initial energy dependent. Monte Carlo simulation provides a fast and low cost methodology to develop the instrument and characterize its predicted behavior under varying solar wind conditions.

  12. The mesoscale precipitation distribution in mid-latitude continental regions: observational uncertainty and evaluation of 25-km global model simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vidale, P. L.; Schiemann, R.; Demory, M. E.; Roberts, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Mid-latitude precipitation over land exhibits a high degree of variability due to the complex interaction of governing atmospheric processes with coastlines, the heterogeneous land surface, and orography. General circulation models (GCMs) have traditionally shown limited ability in capturing variability in the mesoscale range (here ~50-500 km), due to their low resolution. Recent advances in resolution have provided ensembles of multidecadal climate simulations with GCMs using ~25 km grid spacing. Here, we assess this class of GCM simulations, from the UPSCALE (UK on PrACE - weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) campaign. Increased model resolution also poses new challenges to the observational datasets used to evaluate models. Global gridded data products (e.g. from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, GPCP) are invaluable for assessing large-scale precipitation features, but may not sufficiently resolve mesoscale structures. In the absence of alternative estimates, the intercomparison of specialised, regional observational datasets may be the only way to gain insight into the uncertainties associated with these observations. We focus on three mid-latitude continental regions where gridded precipitation observations based on higher-density gauge networks are available, complementing the global data sets: Europe (with a particular emphasis on the Alps), South and East Asia, and the continental US. Additional motivation, and opportunity, arises from continuing efforts to quantify the components of the global radiation budget and water cycle. Recent estimates based on radiation measurements suggest that the global mean precipitation/evaporation may be up to 10 Wm-2 (about 0.35 mm day-1) larger than the estimate obtained from GPCP. While the main part of this discrepancy is thought to be due to the underestimation of remotely-sensed ocean precipitation, there is also considerable uncertainty about 'unobserved' precipitation

  13. Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloysius, Noel R.; Sheffield, Justin; Saiers, James E.; Li, Haibin; Wood, Eric F.

    2016-01-01

    Global and regional climate change assessments rely heavily on the general circulation model (GCM) outputs such as provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Here we evaluate the ability of 25 CMIP5 GCMs to simulate historical precipitation and temperature over central Africa and assess their future projections in the context of historical performance and intermodel and future emission scenario uncertainties. We then apply a statistical bias correction technique to the monthly climate fields and develop monthly downscaled fields for the period of 1948-2099. The bias-corrected and downscaled data set is constructed by combining a suite of global observation and reanalysis-based data sets, with the monthly GCM outputs for the 20th century, and 21st century projections for the medium mitigation (representative concentration pathway (RCP)45) and high emission (RCP85) scenarios. Overall, the CMIP5 models simulate temperature better than precipitation, but substantial spatial heterogeneity exists. Many models show limited skill in simulating the seasonality, spatial patterns, and magnitude of precipitation. Temperature projections by the end of the 21st century (2070-2099) show a robust warming between 2 and 4°C across models, whereas precipitation projections vary across models in the sign and magnitude of change (-9% to 27%). Projected increase in precipitation for a subset of models (single model ensemble (SME)) identified based on performance metrics and causal mechanisms are slightly higher compared to the full multimodel ensemble (MME) mean; however, temperature projections are similar between the two ensemble means. For the near-term (2021-2050), neither the historical performance nor choice of models is related to the precipitation projections, indicating that natural variability dominated any signal. With fewer models, the "blind" MME approach will have larger uncertainties in future precipitation projections compared to projections

  14. Simulation of the electron diffraction patterns from needle/rod-like precipitates in Al-Mg-Si alloys

    SciTech Connect

    Li Kai; Song Min; Du Yong; Zhang Hong

    2011-09-15

    The origin of the selected area electron diffraction (SAED) patterns from needle/rod-like metastable precipitates embedded in {alpha}-Al matrix in Al-Mg-Si alloys have been studied via an example of {beta}'' phase. In addition, the SAED pattern from {beta}'' phase has been simulated with significant improvement in comparison with the previous simulations. Three important factors, i.e. the 12 crystallographically equivalent variants of {beta}'' phase in the {alpha}-Al matrix due to the highly symmetric f.c.c. structure of {alpha}-Al, the coherence between {beta}'' phase and the {alpha}-Al matrix, and the double diffractions from the {alpha}-Al matrix and {beta}'' phase, are proved to contribute to the special square-shaped features in the SAED patterns from {beta}'' phase and thus fully taken into account in the simulation. An improved but simplified method for simulating the SAED patterns from needle/rod-like metastable precipitates has been developed. This method is further verified by simulating the SAED pattern from Q phase. The simulated SAED patterns from both {beta}'' and Q phases fit the experimentally determined patterns very well. - Highlights: {yields}An improved method has been developed to simulate the SADPs of Al alloys. {yields}The formation mechanism of SADPs of Al alloys has been systemically studied. {yields}Double diffraction contributes to the formation of the SADPs of Al alloys.

  15. Aerodynamic Drag of Heavy Vehicles (Class 7-8): Simulation and Benchmarking

    SciTech Connect

    Rose McCallen, Dan Flowers, Tim Dunn; Jerry Owens; Fred Browand; Mustapha Hammache; Anthony Leonard; Mark Brady; Kambiz Salari; Walter Rutledge; James Ross; Bruce Storms; J. T. Heineck, David Driver; James Bell; Steve Walker; Gregory Zilliac

    2000-06-19

    This paper describes research and development for reducing the aerodynamic drag of heavy vehicles by demonstrating new approaches for the numerical simulation and analysis of aerodynamic flow. Experimental validation of new computational fluid dynamics methods are also an important part of this approach. Experiments on a model of an integrated tractor-trailer are underway at NASA Ames Research Center and the University of Southern California (USC). Companion computer simulations are being performed by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and California Institute of Technology (Caltech) using state-of-the-art techniques.

  16. Three-dimensional model for simulating atmospheric dispersion of heavy-gases over complex terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Chan, S.T.

    1997-09-01

    To help understand heavy gas releases and simulate the resultant dispersion, we have developed a three-dimensional finite element model called FEM3 and an improved version names FEM3A for solving the time dependent conservation equations based on generalized anelastic approximation. Recent enhancements to the model to include the treatment of dispersion scenarios involving density variations much larger than the liquefied natural gas range and an advanced turbulence submodel based on the buoyancy-extended transport equations. This paper presents the main features of the present model FEM3C and numerical results from the simulations of a field-scale LNG spill experiment.

  17. Beam dynamics analysis in pulse compression using electron beam compact simulator for Heavy Ion Fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kikuchi, Takashi; Horioka, Kazuhiko; Sasaki, Toru; Harada, Nob.

    2013-11-01

    In a final stage of an accelerator system for heavy ion inertial fusion (HIF), pulse shaping and beam current increase by bunch compression are required for effective pellet implosion. A compact simulator with an electron beam was constructed to understand the beam dynamics. In this study, we investigate theoretically and numerically the beam dynamics for the extreme bunch compression in the final stage of HIF accelerator complex. The theoretical and numerical results implied that the compact experimental device simulates the beam dynamics around the stagnation point for initial low temperature condition.

  18. Overview of Theory and Simulations in the Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, A

    2006-07-03

    The Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory (HIFS-VNL) is a collaboration of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. These laboratories, in cooperation with researchers at other institutions, are carrying out a coordinated effort to apply intense ion beams as drivers for studies of the physics of matter at extreme conditions, and ultimately for inertial fusion energy. Progress on this endeavor depends upon coordinated application of experiments, theory, and simulations. This paper describes the state of the art, with an emphasis on the coordination of modeling and experiment; developments in the simulation tools, and in the methods that underly them, are also treated.

  19. Overview of Theory and Simulations in the Heavy Ion Fusion ScienceVirtual National Laboratory

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, Alex

    2006-07-09

    The Heavy Ion Fusion Science Virtual National Laboratory (HIFS-VNL) is a collaboration of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. These laboratories, in cooperation with researchers at other institutions, are carrying out a coordinated effort to apply intense ion beams as drivers for studies of the physics of matter at extreme conditions, and ultimately for inertial fusion energy. Progress on this endeavor depends upon coordinated application of experiments, theory, and simulations. This paper describes the state of the art, with an emphasis on the coordination of modeling and experiment; developments in the simulation tools, and in the methods that underly them, are also treated.

  20. A cross-biome synthesis of soil respiration and its determinants under simulated precipitation changes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lingli; Wang, Xin; Lajeunesse, Marc J; Miao, Guofang; Piao, Shilong; Wan, Shiqiang; Wu, Yuxin; Wang, Zhenhua; Yang, Sen; Li, Ping; Deng, Meifeng

    2016-04-01

    Soil respiration (Rs) is the second-largest terrestrial carbon (C) flux. Although Rs has been extensively studied across a broad range of biomes, there is surprisingly little consensus on how the spatiotemporal patterns of Rs will be altered in a warming climate with changing precipitation regimes. Here, we present a global synthesis Rs data from studies that have manipulated precipitation in the field by collating studies from 113 increased precipitation treatments, 91 decreased precipitation treatments, and 14 prolonged drought treatments. Our meta-analysis indicated that when the increased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% above the ambient level, the soil moisture, Rs, and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) values increased by an average of 17%, 16%, and 6%, respectively, and the soil temperature decreased by -1.3%. The greatest increases in Rs and Q10 were observed in arid areas, and the stimulation rates decreased with increases in climate humidity. When the decreased precipitation treatments were normalized to 28% below the ambient level, the soil moisture and Rs values decreased by an average of -14% and -17%, respectively, and the soil temperature and Q10 values were not altered. The reductions in soil moisture tended to be greater in more humid areas. Prolonged drought without alterations in the amount of precipitation reduced the soil moisture and Rs by -12% and -6%, respectively, but did not alter Q10. Overall, our synthesis suggests that soil moisture and Rs tend to be more sensitive to increased precipitation in more arid areas and more responsive to decreased precipitation in more humid areas. The responses of Rs and Q10 were predominantly driven by precipitation-induced changes in the soil moisture, whereas changes in the soil temperature had limited impacts. Finally, our synthesis of prolonged drought experiments also emphasizes the importance of the timing and frequency of precipitation events on ecosystem C cycles. Given these

  1. Simulation of the charge migration in DNA under irradiation with heavy ions.

    PubMed

    Belov, Oleg V; Boyda, Denis L; Plante, Ianik; Shirmovsky, Sergey Eh

    2015-01-01

    A computer model to simulate the processes of charge injection and migration through DNA after irradiation by a heavy charged particle was developed. The most probable sites of charge injection were obtained by merging spatial models of short DNA sequence and a single 1 GeV/u iron particle track simulated by the code RITRACKS (Relativistic Ion Tracks). Charge migration was simulated by using a quantum-classical nonlinear model of the DNA-charge system. It was found that charge migration depends on the environmental conditions. The oxidative damage in DNA occurring during hole migration was simulated concurrently, which allowed the determination of probable locations of radiation-induced DNA lesions. PMID:26405967

  2. Simulations of heavy ion heating by electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves driven by proton temperature anisotropies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tanaka, M.

    1985-01-01

    Heating of heavy ions by the electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves, which are driven by proton temperature anisotropies, is studied by means of hybrid particle simulations. Initially, relaxation of the temperature anisotropies in the proton distribution and isotropic heating of the heavy ions are observed (phase I), followed by substantial perpendicular heating of the heavy ions (phase II). The heavy ions are distinctly gyrophase modulated by the EMIC waves. The isotropic heating in phase I is due to magnetic trapping by the excited proton cyclotron waves. The perpendicular heating in phase II is attributed to cyclotron resonance with the EMIC waves, which becomes possible by means of the preceding heating in phase I. Saturation of the EMIC instability is instead attributed to magnetic trapping of the majority ions: protons. When the proton anisotropy is very large, frequency shift (decrease) of the proton cyclotron waves to less than 1/2 Ohm(p) is observed. The present mechanism is not only relevant to He(+) heating in the dayside equator of the magnetosphere, but it also predicts hot He2(+) ions behind the earth's bow shock.

  3. Study of precipitant systems by computerised simulation. Influence of optical elements on the noise associated with the transmittance.

    PubMed

    Poce-Fatou, J A; Alcántara, R; Martín, J

    2001-09-01

    The transmittance signal of a precipitant system measured with a focused laser beam carries associated noise coming from several sources. In this work, we have studied the influence of the focal parameters (wavelength, focal length and prefocused radius of the beam) on the maximum noise reached in equivalent nucleation processes. For this purpose, a simulation program of precipitating systems, designed in FORTRAN 90, has been developed. The program generates simulated transmittances, which are processed by another computer program to extract associated noise. Wide ranges of values of the focal parameters have been analysed, finding relationships between the maximum noise and the focal parameters. They have been justified in connection with the changes observed in the radial parameters, which define the size and shape of the focused path. PMID:11513240

  4. Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes.

    PubMed

    Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W; Hegerl, Gabriele C

    2011-02-17

    Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature--and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation--it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.

  5. Dissipative particle dynamics simulation on the rheological properties of heavy crude oil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Sibo; Xu, Junbo; Wen, Hao

    2015-11-01

    The rheological properties of heavy crude oil have a significant impact on the production, refining and transportation. In this paper, dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) simulations were performed to study the effects of the addition of light crude oil and emulsification on the rheological properties of heavy crude oil. The simulation results reflected that the addition of light crude oil reduced the viscosity effectively. The shear thinning behaviour of crude oil mixtures were becoming less distinct as the increase of the mass fraction of light crude oil. According to the statistics, the shear had an influence on the aggregation and spatial orientation of asphaltene molecules. In addition, the relationship between the viscosity and the oil mass fraction was investigated in the simulations of emulsion systems. The viscosity increased with the oil mass fraction slowly in oil-in-water emulsions. When the oil mass fraction was higher than 50%, the increase became much faster since systems had been converted into water-in-oil emulsions. The equilibrated morphologies of emulsion systems were shown to illustrate the phase inversion. The surfactant-like feature of asphaltenes was also studied in the simulations.

  6. Precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin - Review and new results from observations and climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavalcanti, I. F. A.; Carril, A. F.; Penalba, O. C.; Grimm, A. M.; Menéndez, C. G.; Sanchez, E.; Cherchi, A.; Sörensson, A.; Robledo, F.; Rivera, J.; Pántano, V.; Bettolli, L. M.; Zaninelli, P.; Zamboni, L.; Tedeschi, R. G.; Dominguez, M.; Ruscica, R.; Flach, R.

    2015-04-01

    Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962-2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979-2001, with higher frequency in the south.

  7. Atmospheric processes sustaining a multidecadal variation in reconstructed and model-simulated Indian monsoon precipitation during the past half millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Qianru

    Analyses of recently reconstructed and model-simulated Indian May-September precipitation disclose a statistically significant multidecadal variation at the frequency of 40-50 year per cycle during the last half millennium. To understand the mechanism of this variation, we examined the energy and dynamic processes in the atmosphere, and the potential forcings from the sea surface temperature (SST) variations around the globe. Comparisons of paleo-SST and the paleo-precipitation simulations suggest that the SST is not a significant forcing of the multidecadal variation found in the Indian monsoon precipitation. Instead, analyses suggest that atmospheric processes characterized by phase differences between the meridional enthalpy gradient and poleward eddy enthalpy transport are important to sustain this variation. In this phase relationship, the meridional enthalpy gradient is strengthened by radiative loss in high latitudes. Driven by this enlarged gradient and associated changes in baroclinicity in the mid-latitude atmosphere, more energy is generated in the tropical and subtropical (monsoon) regions and transported poleward. The monsoon is strengthened to allow more energy being transported poleward. The increased enthalpy transport, in turn, weakens the meridional enthalpy gradient and, subsequently, softens the demand for energy production in the monsoon region. The monsoon weakens and the transport decreases. The variation in monsoon precipitation lags that in the meridional enthalpy gradient, but leads that in the poleward heat transport. This phase relationship and underlining chasing process by the heat transport to the gradient sustain this variation at the multidecadal timescale. This mechanism suggests that atmospheric circulation processes can contribute to multidecadal timescale variations in the Indian monsoon precipitation.

  8. Electron-Cloud Simulation and Theory for High-Current Heavy-Ion Beams

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, R; Friedman, A; Lund, S; Molvik, A; Lee, E; Azevedo, T; Vay, J; Stoltz, P; Veitzer, S

    2004-07-26

    Stray electrons can arise in positive-ion accelerators for heavy ion fusion or other applications as a result of ionization of ambient gas or gas released from walls due to halo-ion impact, or as a result of secondary- electron emission. We summarize the distinguishing features of electron cloud issues in heavy-ion-fusion accelerators and a plan for developing a self-consistent simulation capability for heavy-ion beams and electron clouds. We also present results from several ingredients in this capability: (1) We calculate the electron cloud produced by electron desorption from computed beam-ion loss, which illustrates the importance of retaining ion reflection at the walls. (2) We simulate of the effect of specified electron cloud distributions on ion beam dynamics. We consider here electron distributions with axially varying density, centroid location, or radial shape, and examine both random and sinusoidally varying perturbations. We find that amplitude variations are most effective in spoiling ion beam quality, though for sinusoidal variations which match the natural ion beam centroid oscillation or breathing mode frequencies, the centroid and shape perturbations can also have significant impact. We identify an instability associated with a resonance between the beam-envelope ''breathing'' mode and the electron perturbation. We estimate its growth rate, which is moderate (compared to the reciprocal of a typical pulse duration). One conclusion from this study is that heavy-ion beams are surprisingly robust to electron clouds, compared to a priori expectations. (3) We report first results from a long-timestep algorithm for electron dynamics, which holds promise for efficient simultaneous solution of electron and ion dynamics.

  9. Measured and simulated heavy-ion beam loss patterns at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hermes, P. D.; Bruce, R.; Jowett, J. M.; Redaelli, S.; Salvachua Ferrando, B.; Valentino, G.; Wollmann, D.

    2016-05-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN pushes forward to new regimes in terms of beam energy and intensity. In view of the combination of very energetic and intense beams together with sensitive machine components, in particular the superconducting magnets, the LHC is equipped with a collimation system to provide protection and intercept uncontrolled beam losses. Beam losses could cause a superconducting magnet to quench, or in the worst case, damage the hardware. The collimation system, which is optimized to provide a good protection with proton beams, has shown a cleaning efficiency with heavy-ion beams which is worse by up to two orders of magnitude. The reason for this reduced cleaning efficiency is the fragmentation of heavy-ion beams into isotopes with a different mass to charge ratios because of the interaction with the collimator material. In order to ensure sufficient collimation performance in future ion runs, a detailed theoretical understanding of ion collimation is needed. The simulation of heavy-ion collimation must include processes in which 82+208Pb ions fragment into dozens of new isotopes. The ions and their fragments must be tracked inside the magnetic lattice of the LHC to determine their loss positions. This paper gives an overview of physical processes important for the description of heavy-ion loss patterns. Loss maps simulated by means of the two tools ICOSIM [1,2] and the newly developed STIER (SixTrack with Ion-Equivalent Rigidities) are compared with experimental data measured during LHC operation. The comparison shows that the tool STIER is in better agreement.

  10. Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chase, K.J.

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4

  11. Numerical Simulation of Tuff Dissolution and Precipitation Experiments: Validation of Thermal-Hydrologic-Chemical (THC) Coupled-Process Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobson, P. F.; Kneafsey, T. J.

    2001-12-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate THC effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation. To replicate mineral dissolution by condensate in fractured tuff, deionized water equilibrated with carbon dioxide was flowed for 1,500 hours through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94° C. The reacted water was collected and sampled for major dissolved species, total alkalinity, electrical conductivity, and pH. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/L; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state reacted water was flowed at 10.8 mL/hr into a 31.7-cm tall, 16.2-cm wide vertically oriented planar fracture with a hydraulic aperture of 31 microns in a block of welded Topopah Spring tuff that was maintained at 80° C at the top and 130° C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal within five days. A 1-D plug-flow model using the TOUGHREACT code developed at Berkeley Lab was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a 2-D model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The fracture-plugging simulations result in the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a hundred-fold decrease in fracture permeability in less than 6 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment. These results help validate the use of the TOUGHREACT code for THC modeling of the Yucca Mountain system. The experiment and simulations indicate that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local scale. The TOUGHREACT code will be used

  12. Short-range precipitation forecasts using assimilation of simulated satellite water vapor profiles and column cloud liquid water amounts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, Xiaohua; Diak, George R.; Hayden, Cristopher M.; Young, John A.

    1995-01-01

    These observing system simulation experiments investigate the assimilation of satellite-observed water vapor and cloud liquid water data in the initialization of a limited-area primitive equations model with the goal of improving short-range precipitation forecasts. The assimilation procedure presented includes two aspects: specification of an initial cloud liquid water vertical distribution and diabatic initialization. The satellite data is simulated for the next generation of polar-orbiting satellite instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the High-Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS), which are scheduled to be launched on the NOAA-K satellite in the mid-1990s. Based on cloud-top height and total column cloud liquid water amounts simulated for satellite data a diagnostic method is used to specify an initial cloud water vertical distribution and to modify the initial moisture distribution in cloudy areas. Using a diabatic initialization procedure, the associated latent heating profiles are directly assimilated into the numerical model. The initial heating is estimated by time averaging the latent heat release from convective and large-scale condensation during the early forecast stage after insertion of satellite-observed temperature, water vapor, and cloud water formation. The assimilation of satellite-observed moisture and cloud water, together withy three-mode diabatic initialization, significantly alleviates the model precipitation spinup problem, especially in the first 3 h of the forecast. Experimental forecasts indicate that the impact of satellite-observed temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud water alone in the initialization procedure shortens the spinup time for precipitation rates by 1-2 h and for regeneration of the areal coverage by 3 h. The diabatic initialization further reduces the precipitation spinup time (compared to adiabatic initialization) by 1 h.

  13. Association of the sites of heavy metals with nanoscale carbon in a Kentucky electrostatic precipitator fly ash

    SciTech Connect

    James C. Hower; Uschi M. Graham; Alan Dozier; Michael T. Tseng; Rajesh A. Khatri

    2008-11-15

    A combination of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and electron energy-loss spectroscopy (HRTEM-STEM-EELS) was used to study fly ashes produced from the combustion of an eastern Kentucky coal at a southeastern-Kentucky wall-fired pulverized coal utility boiler retrofitted for low-NOx combustion. Fly ash was collected from individual hoppers in each row of the electrostatic precipitators (ESP) pollution-control system, with multiple hoppers sampled within each of the three rows. Temperatures within the ESP array range from about 200 {degree}C at the entry to the first row to <150{degree}C at the exit of the third row. HRTEM-STEM-EELS study demonstrated the presence of nanoscale (10 s nm) C agglomerates with typical soot-like appearance and others with graphitic fullerene-like nanocarbon structures. The minute carbon agglomerates are typically juxtaposed and intergrown with slightly larger aluminosilicate spheres and often form an ultrathin halo or deposit on the fly ash particles. The STEM-EELS analyses revealed that the nanocarbon agglomerates host even finer (<3 nm) metal and metal oxide particles. Elemental analysis indicated an association of Hg with the nanocarbon. Arsenic, Se, Pb, Co, and traces of Ti and Ba are often associated with Fe-rich particles within the nanocarbon deposits. 57 refs., 5 figs.

  14. Association of the sites of heavy metals with nanoscale carbon in a Kentucky electrostatic precipitator fly ash.

    PubMed

    Hower, James C; Graham, Uschi M; Dozier, Alan; Tseng, Michael T; Khatri, Rajesh A

    2008-11-15

    A combination of high-resolution transmission electron microscopy, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and electron energy-loss spectroscopy (HRTEM-STEM-EELS) was used to study fly ashes produced from the combustion of an eastern Kentucky coal at a southeastern-Kentucky wall-fired pulverized coal utility boiler. Fly ash was collected from individual hoppers in each row of the electrostatic precipitators (ESP) pollution-control system, with multiple hoppers sampled within each of the three rows. Temperatures within the ESP array range from about 200 degrees C at the entry to the first row to < 150 degrees C at the exit of the third row. HRTEM-STEM-EELS study demonstrated the presence of nanoscale (10 s nm) C agglomerates with typical soot-like appearance and others with graphitic fullerene-like nanocarbon structures. The minute carbon agglomerates are typically juxtaposed and intergrown with slightly larger aluminosilicate spheres and often form an ultrathin halo or deposit on the fly ash particles. The STEM-EELS analyses revealed that the nanocarbon agglomerates host even finer (< 3 nm) metal and metal oxide particles. Elemental analysis indicated an association of Hg with the nanocarbon. Arsenic, Se, Pb, Co, and traces of Ti and Ba are often associated with Fe-rich particles within the nanocarbon deposits.

  15. Future changes in African temperature and precipitation in an ensemble of Africa-CORDEX regional climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Gbobaniyi, Emiola; Jones, Colin

    2013-04-01

    In this study we investigate possible changes in temperature and precipitation on a regional scale over Africa from 1961 to 2100. We use data from two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, over the Africa-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes eight coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1° to 3°, namely CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensemble all 8 AOGCMs are downscaled at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44° resolution. Two forcing scenarios are considered, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The experimental setup allows us to illustrate how uncertainties in future climate change are related to forcing scenario and to forcing AOGCM at different time periods. Further, we investigate the benefit of the higher horizontal resolution in RCA4 by comparing the results to the coarser driving AOGCM data. The significance of the results is investigated by comparing to i) the model simulated natural variability, and, ii) the biases in the control period. Results dealing with changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation are presented. We also address higher-order variability by showing results for changes in temperature extremes and for changes in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation.

  16. Impact of horizontal resolution on scenarios of future European temperature and precipitation as derived from RCM and GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory

    2014-05-01

    In this study we investigate possible changes in temperature and precipitation on a regional scale over Europe from 1961 to 2100. We use data from three ensembles of climate simulations, one global and two regional ones, over the Europe-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes five coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1º to 3º, namely CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, EC-EARTH and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensembles all 5 AOGCMs are downscaled at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44º (c. 50 km) and at 0.11º (c. 12.5 km) resolution under the forcing scenarios RCP 8.5. The experimental setup allows us to investigate the benefit of the higher horizontal resolution, in RCA4 by comparing the results in the two RCA4 ensembles to the coarser driving AOGCM data. The significance of the results is investigated by comparing to i) the model simulated natural variability, and, ii) the biases in the control period. Results dealing with changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation and their relation to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation are presented. We also address higher-order variability by showing results for changes in temperature extremes and for changes in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation.

  17. Developing models for simulation of pinched-beam dynamics in heavy ion fusion. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Boyd, J.K.; Mark, J.W.K.; Sharp, W.M.; Yu, S.S.

    1984-02-22

    For heavy-ion fusion energy applications, Mark and Yu have derived hydrodynamic models for numerical simulation of energetic pinched-beams including self-pinches and external-current pinches. These pinched-beams are applicable to beam propagation in fusion chambers and to the US High Temperature Experiment. The closure of the Mark-Yu model is obtained with adiabatic assumptions mathematically analogous to those of Chew, Goldberger, and Low for MHD. Features of this hydrodynamic beam model are compared with a kinetic treatment.

  18. Numerical simulation studies of the LBNL heavy-ion beam combiner experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Fawley, W.M.; Seidl, P.; Haber, I.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D.P.

    1997-01-01

    Transverse beam combining is a cost-saving option employed in many designs for heavy-ion inertial fusion energy drivers. A major area of interest, both theoretically and experimentally, is the resultant transverse phase space dilution during the beam merging process. Currently, a prototype combining experiment is underway at LBNL and we have employed a variety of numerical descriptions to aid in both the initial design of the experiment data. These range from simple envelope codes to detailed 2- and 3-D PIC simulations. We compare the predictions of the different numerical models to each other and to experimental data at different longitudinal positions.

  19. Preliminary Results from a Mesocosm Marsh Experiment with Treatments Simulating Three Tidal Flooding and Precipitation Conditions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Our goal was to observe and quantify the effects of low, medium and high tidal flooding regimes and various precipitation conditions on both Spartina alterniflora and Typha angustifolia in greenhouse mesocosms. The experiment was maintained for 4 months. Each of 3 tanks (600L) ha...

  20. Navier-Stokes Simulation of a Heavy Lift Slowed-Rotor Compound Helicopter Configuration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allan, Brian G.; Jenkins, Luther N.; Yao, Chung-Sheng; Bartram, Scott M.; Hallissy, Jim B.; Harris, Jerome; Noonan, Kevin W.; Wong, Oliver D.; Jones, Henry E.; Malovrh, Brendon D.; reis, Deane G.; Mace, W. Derry

    2009-01-01

    Time accurate numerical simulations were performed using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) flow solver OVERFLOW for a heavy lift, slowed-rotor, compound helicopter configuration, tested at the NASA Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The primary purpose of these simulations is to provide support for the development of a large field of view Particle Imaging Velocimetry (PIV) flow measurement technique supported by the Subsonic Rotary Wing (SRW) project under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics program. These simulations provide a better understanding of the rotor and body wake flows and helped to define PIV measurement locations as well as requirements for validation of flow solver codes. The large field PIV system can measure the three-dimensional velocity flow field in a 0.914m by 1.83m plane. PIV measurements were performed upstream and downstream of the vertical tail section and are compared to simulation results. The simulations are also used to better understand the tunnel wall and body/rotor support effects by comparing simulations with and without tunnel floor/ceiling walls and supports. Comparisons are also made to the experimental force and moment data for the body and rotor.

  1. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

    SciTech Connect

    Varble, Adam C.; Fridlind, Ann; Zipser, Ed; Ackerman, Andrew; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

    2011-06-24

    The Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) provided high quality model forcing and observational datasets through which detailed model and observational intercomparisons could be performed. In this first of a two part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud-resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Most simulations slightly overestimate volumetric convective rainfall. Overestimation of simulated convective area by 50% or more in several simulations is somewhat offset by underestimation of mean convective rain rates. Stratiform volumetric rainfall is underestimated by 13% to 53% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because stratiform rain rates in every simulation are much lower than observed. Although simulations match the peaked convective radar reflectivity distribution at low levels, they do not reproduce the peaked distributions observed above the melting level. Simulated radar reflectivity aloft in convective regions is too high in most simulations. 29 In stratiform regions, there is a large spread in model results with none resembling 30 observed distributions. Above the melting level, observed radar reflectivity decreases 31 more gradually with height than simulated radar reflectivity. A few simulations produce 32 unrealistically uniform and cold 10.8-μm infrared brightness temperatures, but several 33 simulations produce distributions close to observed. Assumed ice particle size 34 distributions appear to play a larger role than ice water contents in producing incorrect 35 simulated radar reflectivity distributions aloft despite substantial differences in mean 36 graupel and snow water contents across models. 37

  2. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

    SciTech Connect

    Varble, Adam; Fridlind, Ann; Zipser, Edward J.; Ackerman, Andrew; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; McFarlane, Sally A.; Pinty, Jean-Pierre; Shipway, Ben

    2011-10-04

    The Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) provided high quality model forcing and observational datasets through which detailed model and observational intercomparisons could be performed. In this first of a two part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud-resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Most simulations slightly overestimate volumetric convective rainfall. Overestimation of simulated convective area by 50% or more in several simulations is somewhat offset by underestimation of mean convective rain rates. Stratiform volumetric rainfall is underestimated by 13% to 53% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because stratiform rain rates in every simulation are much lower than observed. Although simulations match the peaked convective radar reflectivity distribution at low levels, they do not reproduce the peaked distributions observed above the melting level. Simulated radar reflectivity aloft in convective regions is too high in most simulations. In stratiform regions, there is a large spread in model results with none resembling observed distributions. Above the melting level, observed radar reflectivity decreases more gradually with height than simulated radar reflectivity. A few simulations produce unrealistically uniform and cold 10.8-μm infrared brightness temperatures, but several simulations produce distributions close to observed. Assumed ice particle size distributions appear to play a larger role than ice water contents in producing incorrect simulated radar reflectivity distributions aloft despite substantial differences in mean graupel and snow water contents across models.

  3. Event Generators for Simulating Heavy Ion Interactions of Interest in Evaluating Risks in Human Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Thomas L.; Pinsky, Lawrence; Andersen, Victor; Empl, Anton; Lee, Kerry; Smirmov, Georgi; Zapp, Neal; Ferrari, Alfredo; Tsoulou, Katerina; Roesler, Stefan; Vlachoudis, Vasilis

    2005-01-01

    Simulating the Space Radiation environment with Monte Carlo Codes, such as FLUKA, requires the ability to model the interactions of heavy ions as they penetrate spacecraft and crew member's bodies. Monte-Carlo-type transport codes use total interaction cross sections to determine probabilistically when a particular type of interaction has occurred. Then, at that point, a distinct event generator is employed to determine separately the results of that interaction. The space radiation environment contains a full spectrum of radiation types, including relativistic nuclei, which are the most important component for the evaluation of crew doses. Interactions between incident protons with target nuclei in the spacecraft materials and crew member's bodies are well understood. However, the situation is substantially less comfortable for incident heavier nuclei (heavy ions). We have been engaged in developing several related heavy ion interaction models based on a Quantum Molecular Dynamics-type approach for energies up through about 5 GeV per nucleon (GeV/A) as part of a NASA Consortium that includes a parallel program of cross section measurements to guide and verify this code development.

  4. Heating heavy ions in the polar corona by collisionless shocks: A one-dimensional simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nisticò, Giuseppe; Zimbardo, Gaetano

    2012-01-01

    Recently a new model for explaining the observations of preferential heating of heavy ions in the polar solar corona was proposed (Zimbardo, 2010, 2011). In that model the ion energization mechanism is the ion reflection off supercritical quasi-perpendicular collisionless shocks in the corona and the subsequent acceleration by the motional electric field E = -V × B/c. The mechanism of heavy ion reflection is based on ion gyration in the magnetic overshoot of the shock. The acceleration due to the motional electric field is perpendicular to the magnetic field, giving rise to large temperature anisotropy with T⊥ ≫ T∥, in agreement with SoHO observations. Such a model is tested here by means of a one dimensional test particle simulation where ions are launched toward electric and magnetic profiles representing the shock transition. We study the dynamics of O5+, as representative of coronal heavy ions for Alfvénic Mach numbers of 2-4, as appropriate to solar corona. It is found that O5+ ions are easily reflected and gain more than mass proportional energy with respect to protons.

  5. Influence of solar heating and precipitation scavenging on the simulated lifetime of post-nuclear war smoke

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malone, R. C.; Auer, L. H.; Glatzmaier, G. A.; Wood, M. C.; Toon, O. B.

    1985-01-01

    The behavior of smoke injected into the atmosphere by massive fires that might follow a nuclear war was simulated. Studies with a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model showed that heating of the smoke by sunlight would be important and might produce several effects that would decrease the efficiency with which precipitation removes smoke from the atmosphere. The heating gives rise to vertical motions that carry smoke well above the original injection height. Heating of the smoke also causes the tropopause, which is initially above the smoke, to reform below the heated smoke layer. Smoke above the tropopause is physically isolated from precipitation below. Consequently, the atmospheric residence time of the remaining smoke is greatly increased over the prescribed residence times used in previous models of nuclear winter.

  6. Simulated Future Air Temperature and Precipitation Climatology and Variability in the Mediterranean Basin by Using Downscaled Global Climate Model Outputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ozturk, Tugba; Pelin Ceber, Zeynep; Türkeş, Murat; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2014-05-01

    The Mediterranean Basin is one of the regions that shall be affected most by the impacts of the future climate changes on temperature regime including changes in heat waves intensity and frequency, seasonal and interannual precipitation variability including changes in summer dryness and drought events, and hydrology and water resources. In this study, projected future changes in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology and inter-annual variability over the Mediterranean region were simulated. For performing this aim, the future changes in annual and seasonal averages for the future period of 2070-2100 with respect to the period from 1970 to 2000 were investigated. Global climate model outputs of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset were used. SRES A2, A1B and B1 emission scenarios' outputs of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used in future climate model projections. Future surface mean air temperatures of the larger Mediterranean basin increase mostly in summer and least in winter, and precipitation amounts decreases in all seasons at almost all parts of the basin. Future climate signals for surface air temperatures and precipitation totals will be much larger than the inter-model standard deviation. Inter-annual temperature variability increases evidently in summer season and decreases in the northern part of the domain in the winter season, while precipitation variability increases in almost all parts of domain. Probability distribution functions are found to be shifted and flattened for future period compared to reference period. This indicates that occurrence frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions will increase in the future period. This work has been supported by Bogazici University BAP under project number 7362. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  7. WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China - an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maussion, F.; Scherer, D.; Finkelnburg, R.; Richters, J.; Yang, W.; Yao, T.

    2011-06-01

    Meteorological observations over the Tibetan Plateau (TiP) are scarce, and precipitation estimations over this remote region are difficult. The constantly improving capabilities of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models offer the opportunity to reduce this problem by providing precipitation fields and other meteorological variables of high spatial and temporal resolution. Longer time periods of years to decades can be simulated by NWP models by successive model runs of shorter periods, which can be described by the term "regional atmospheric reanalysis". In this paper, we assess the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models capacity in retrieving rain- and snowfall on the TiP in such a configuration using a nested approach: the simulations are conducted with three nested domains at spatial resolutions of 30, 10, and 2 km. A validation study is carried out for a one-month period with a special focus on one-week (22-28 October 2008), during which strong rain- and snowfall was observed on the TiP. The output of the model in each resolution is compared to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data set for precipitation and to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data set for snow extent. TRMM and WRF data are then compared to weather-station measurements. Our results suggest an overall improvement from WRF over TRMM with respect to weather-station measurements. Various configurations of the model with different nesting and forcing strategies, as well as physical parameterisation schemes are compared to propose a suitable design for a regional atmospheric reanalysis over the TiP. The WRF model showed good accuracy in simulating snow- and rainfall on the TiP for a one-month simulation period. Our study reveals that there is nothing like an optimal model strategy applicable for the high-altitude TiP, its fringing high-mountain areas of extremely complex topography and the low-altitude land and sea regions from which much of the

  8. Simulations of the 100-hPa South Asian High and precipitation over East Asia with IPCC coupled GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Ningfang; Yu, Yongqiang; Qian, Yongfu

    2006-05-01

    The South Asian High (SAH) and precipitation over East Asia simulated by 11 coupled GCMs associated with the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report are evaluated. The seasonal behavior of the SAH is presented for each model. Analyses of the results show that all models are able to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the SAH. Locations of the SAH center are also basically reproduced by these models. All models underestimate the intensity and the extension of coverage in summer. The anomalous SAH can be divided into east and west modes according to its longitudinal position in summer on the interannual timescale, and the composite anomalies of the observed precipitation for these two modes tend to have opposite signs over East Asia. However, only several coupled GCMs can simulate the relationship between rainfall and SAH similar to the observed one, which may be associated with the bias in simulation of the subtropical anticyclone over the West Pacific (SAWP) at 500 hPa. In fact, it is found that any coupled GCM, that can reproduce the reasonable summer mean state of SAWP and the southward (northward) withdrawal (extension) for the east (west) mode of SAH as compared to the observed, will also simulate similar rainfall anomaly patterns for the east and west SAH modes over East Asia. Further analysis indicates that the observed variations in the SAH, SAWP and rainfall are closely related to the sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial tropical Pacific. Particularly, some models cannot simulate the SAWP extending northward in the west mode and withdrawing southward in the east mode, which may be related to weak major El Niño or La Niña events. The abilities of the coupled GCMs to simulate the SAWP and ENSO events are associated partly with their ability to reproduce the observed relationship between SAH and the rainfall anomaly over East Asia.

  9. Competitive adsorption of heavy metal ions on carbon nanotubes and the desorption in simulated biofluids.

    PubMed

    Ma, Xin; Yang, Sheng-Tao; Tang, Huan; Liu, Yuanfang; Wang, Haifang

    2015-06-15

    Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) had meaningful adsorption capacities for Pb(2+), Cu(2+), Zn(2+) and Cd(2+), while Pb(2+) showed the highest adsorption in the competitive adsorption evaluations. The desorption behaviors of heavy metal ions were completely different in various biofluids, where the desorption was significantly influenced by pH and the presence of proteins/other cations. The desorption was most effective in simulated stomach juice, and much less effective in other simulated biofluids. More Pb(2+) stuck to CNTs than others, resulting in less desorption. Interestingly, the competitive desorption behaviors of four ions were largely changed comparing to the individual desorption behaviors. The implications to the biosafety evaluations and synergistic effects of CNT are discussed.

  10. Sputtering of Lunar Regolith Simulant by Protons and Multicharged Heavy Ions at Solar Wind Energies

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Fred W; Harris, Peter R; Taylor, C. N.; Meyer III, Harry M; Barghouty, N.; Adams Jr., J.

    2011-01-01

    We report preliminary results on sputtering of a lunar regolith simulant at room temperature by singly and multiply charged solar wind ions using quadrupole and time-of-flight (TOF) mass spectrometry approaches. Sputtering of the lunar regolith by solar-wind heavy ions may be an important particle source that contributes to the composition of the lunar exosphere, and is a possible mechanism for lunar surface ageing and compositional modification. The measurements were performed in order to assess the relative sputtering efficiency of protons, which are the dominant constituent of the solar wind, and less abundant heavier multicharged solar wind constituents, which have higher physical sputtering yields than same-velocity protons, and whose sputtering yields may be further enhanced due to potential sputtering. Two different target preparation approaches using JSC-1A AGGL lunar regolith simulant are described and compared using SEM and XPS surface analysis.

  11. Simulation of heavy ion collisions at {radical}s = 20--200 GeV

    SciTech Connect

    Kahana, D.E.; Kahana, S.H. |

    1996-11-01

    A new hadronic cascade code (LUCIFER) is introduced, for simulation of relativistic heavy ion collisions at CERN energies and up to RHIC. It is based on a simple, experimentally and theoretically motivated picture of hh interactions. Final state hadrons are produced by decay of intermediate state clusters, or lumps of excited hadronic matter. These are similar to resonances, but have a continuous mass distribution. Clusters are the objects that re-interact in the cascade. Single diffractive dissociation is used to fix the cluster properties. The model has just two parameters: {tau}{sub d}, the decay time of the clusters, and {tau}{sub f} the formation time of the clusters. Comparison is made with recent CERN data in the Pb + Pb system. The first consistent cascade simulation, of J/{psi} production/suppression is presented. It appears likely that a purely hadronic interpretation can be given to recent CERN data on apparently anomalous J/{psi} suppression in Pb + Pb.

  12. Self-Consistent Simulations of Heavy-Ion Beams Interacting with Electron-Clouds

    SciTech Connect

    Vay, J; Furman, M A; Seidl, P A; Cohen, R H; Friedman, A; Grote, D P; Covo, M K; Molvik, A W; Stoltz, P H; Veitzer, S; Verboncoeur, J P

    2006-08-04

    Electron-clouds and rising desorbed gas pressure limit the performance of many existing accelerators and, potentially, that of future accelerators including heavy-ion warm-dense matter and fusion drivers. For the latter, self-consistent simulation of the interaction of the heavy-ion beam(s) with the electron-cloud is necessary. To this end, we have merged the two codes WARP (HIF accelerator code) and POSINST (high-energy e-cloud build-up code), and added modules for neutral gas molecule generation, gas ionization, and electron tracking algorithms in magnetic fields with large time steps. The new tool is being benchmarked against the High-Current Experiment (HCX) and good agreement has been achieved. The simulations have also aided diagnostic interpretation and have identified unanticipated physical processes. We present the ''roadmap'' describing the different modules and their interconnections, along with detailed comparisons with HCX experimental results, as well as a preliminary application to the modeling of electron clouds in the Large Hadron Collider.

  13. Through process numerical simulation of a heavy hydro turbine blade casting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, J. W.; Wang, T. J.; Y Huang, T.; Liu, B. C.

    2012-07-01

    Heavy Hydro turbine castings, made of martensitic stainless steel, of spatially twisted shape, are susceptible to deformation during both casting and heat treatment processes. During production, uneven heating and cooling, phase transformation, stress and stain are responsible for the deformation of castings. However, the current research most focus on casting process or heat treatment process or both but separately, martensitic phase transformation is usually neglected in casting process. In this paper, a coupled thermo-martensitic phase transformation-stress model is established. And it is implemented by secondary development of ABAQUS, which deals the finite element model change and incorporates multi thermal and mechanical boundaries during casting and heat treatment processes as well, such as the contact pair between casting and mold during casting process. The stress analysis of a heavy hydro blade casting was performed by this system. The stress, displacement and phase are obtained. The effect of martensitic phase transformation on the stress and deformation is discussed. The simulated deformation is compared with measured results, and their agreement is improved by the through process simulation.

  14. Simulation of System Error Tolerances of a High Current Transport Experiment for Heavy-Ion Fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lund, Steven M.; Bangerter, Roger O.; Freidman, Alex; Grote, Dave P.; Seidl, Peter A.

    2000-10-01

    A driver-scale, intense ion beam transport experiment (HCX) is being designed to test issues for Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) [1]. Here we present detailed, Particle in Cell simulations of HCX to parametrically explore how various system errors can impact machine performance. The simulations are transverse and include the full 3D fields of the quadrupole focusing magnets, spreads in axial momentum, conducting pipe boundary conditions, etc. System imperfections such as applied focusing field errors (magnet strength, field nonlinearities, etc.), alignment errors (magnet offsets and rotations), beam envelope mismatches to the focusing lattice, induced beam image charges, and beam distribution errors (beam nonuniformities, collective modes, and other distortions) are all analyzed in turn and in combination. The influence of these errors on the degradation of beam quality (emittance growth), halo production, and loss of beam control are evaluated. Evaluations of practical machine apertures and centroid steering corrections that can mitigate particle loss and degradation of beam quality are carried out. 1. P.A. Seidl, L.E. Ahle, R.O. Bangerter, V.P. Karpenko, S.M. Lund, A Faltens, R.M. Franks, D.B. Shuman, and H.K. Springer, Design of a Proof of Principal High Current Transport Experiment for Heavy-Ion Fusion, these proceedings.

  15. Self-consistent simulations of heavy-ion beams interacting with electron-clouds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vay, J.-L.; Furman, M. A.; Seidl, P. A.; Cohen, R. H.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D. P.; Kireeff Covo, M.; Molvik, A. W.; Stoltz, P. H.; Veitzer, S.; Verboncoeur, J. P.

    2007-07-01

    Electron clouds and rising desorbed gas pressure limit the performance of many existing accelerators and, potentially, that of future accelerators including heavy-ion warm-dense matter and fusion drivers. For the latter, self-consistent simulation of the interaction of the heavy-ion beam(s) with the electron cloud is necessary. To this end, we have merged the two codes WARP (HIF accelerator code) and POSINST (high-energy e-cloud build-up code), and added modules for neutral gas molecule generation, gas ionization, and electron tracking algorithms in magnetic fields with large time steps. The new tool is being benchmarked against the High-Current Experiment (HCX) and good agreement has been achieved. The simulations have also aided diagnostic interpretation and have identified unanticipated physical processes. We present the "roadmap" describing the different modules and their interconnections, along with detailed comparisons with HCX experimental results, as well as a preliminary application to the modeling of electron clouds in the Large Hadron Collider.

  16. Mid-Holocene global monsoon area and precipitation from PMIP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Dabang; Tian, Zhiping; Lang, Xianmei

    2015-05-01

    Towards a better insight into orbital-scale changes in global monsoon, here we examine global monsoon area (GMA) and precipitation (GMP) as well as GMP intensity (GMPI) in the mid-Holocene, approximately 6,000 years ago, using all available numerical experiments from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Compared to the reference period, both the mid-Holocene GMA and GMP increased in the majority of the 35 models chosen for analysis according to their ability, averaging 5.5 and 4.2 %, respectively, which were mainly due to the increase in monsoon area and precipitation over the boreal land and austral ocean. The mid-Holocene GMPI decreased in most models and by an average of 1.2 %, mainly due to the decrease in monsoon precipitation intensity over the boreal ocean and austral land. The mid-Holocene GMA, GMP, and GMPI all showed opposite changes both between the land and ocean in the northern or southern hemisphere and between the boreal and austral land or ocean. Orbital-induced changes in large-scale meridional temperature gradient and land-sea thermal contrast are the underlying mechanisms, and the presence of an interactive ocean has an amplifying effect in the boreal land monsoon areas overall. Qualitatively, the model-data comparison indicates agreement in the boreal land monsoon areas and South America but disagreement in southern Africa and northern Australia.

  17. Evaluation of spatial and spatiotemporal estimation methods in simulation of precipitation variability patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bayat, Bardia; Zahraie, Banafsheh; Taghavi, Farahnaz; Nasseri, Mohsen

    2013-08-01

    Identification of spatial and spatiotemporal precipitation variations plays an important role in different hydrological applications such as missing data estimation. In this paper, the results of Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) and ordinary kriging (OK) are compared for modeling spatial and spatiotemporal variations of annual precipitation with and without incorporating elevation variations. The study area of this research is Namak Lake watershed located in the central part of Iran with an area of approximately 90,000 km2. The BME and OK methods have been used to model the spatial and spatiotemporal variations of precipitation in this watershed, and their performances have been evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results of the case study have shown the superiority of BME over OK in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes. The results have shown that BME estimates are less biased and more accurate than OK. The improvements in the BME estimates are mostly related to incorporating hard and soft data in the estimation process, which resulted in more detailed and reliable results. Estimation error variance for BME results is less than OK estimations in the study area in both spatial and spatiotemporal modes.

  18. [Short-term response of soil CH4 flux to simulated precipitation in a winter wheat field on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China].

    PubMed

    Liu, Quan-quan; Wang, Jun; Chen, Rong-rong; Liu, Wen-zhao; Sainju, Upendra M

    2015-01-01

    To understand the short-term response of soil CH4 flux to different precipitation events in a winter wheat field on the Loess Plateau, we conducted precipitation simulation experiments during winter wheat jointing stage and summer fallow period to measure the soil CH4 flux in 0 to 72 h after precipitation simulation of 1 to 32 mm. Results showed that CH4 flux during 0 to 72 h fluctuated at 1 to 8 mm of precipitation application and peaked at 16 and 32 mm. Cumulative CH4 flux after 72 h of precipitation (CH4-C) increased linearly with the precipitation amount (P) (wheat jointing stage: CH-C=2.45P-6.09, R2=0.92, P<0.01; summer fallow: CH-C=2.43P-4.73, R2 = 0.91, P<0.01). Statistical analysis showed that CH4 flux was also correlated with soil water content and microbial biomass carbon but not with soil temperature. In the long run, small precipitation events (1-8 mm) could enhance the intensity of soil CH4 sink and such promoting effect would be weakened with further increase in precipitation amount. However, large precipitation events (≥16 mm) could change the soil function from CH4 sink to source by stimulating the activity of soil methanogens during short-term periods.

  19. Phase Behavior, Solid Organic Precipitation, and Mobility Characterization Studies in Support of Enhanced Heavy Oil Recovery on the Alaska North Slope

    SciTech Connect

    Shirish Patil; Abhijit Dandekar; Santanu Khataniar

    2008-12-31

    The medium-heavy oil (viscous oil) resources in the Alaska North Slope are estimated at 20 to 25 billion barrels. These oils are viscous, flow sluggishly in the formations, and are difficult to recover. Recovery of this viscous oil requires carefully designed enhanced oil recovery processes. Success of these recovery processes is critically dependent on accurate knowledge of the phase behavior and fluid properties, especially viscosity, of these oils under variety of pressure and temperature conditions. This project focused on predicting phase behavior and viscosity of viscous oils using equations of state and semi-empirical correlations. An experimental study was conducted to quantify the phase behavior and physical properties of viscous oils from the Alaska North Slope oil field. The oil samples were compositionally characterized by the simulated distillation technique. Constant composition expansion and differential liberation tests were conducted on viscous oil samples. Experiment results for phase behavior and reservoir fluid properties were used to tune the Peng-Robinson equation of state and predict the phase behavior accurately. A comprehensive literature search was carried out to compile available compositional viscosity models and their modifications, for application to heavy or viscous oils. With the help of meticulously amassed new medium-heavy oil viscosity data from experiments, a comparative study was conducted to evaluate the potential of various models. The widely used corresponding state viscosity model predictions deteriorate when applied to heavy oil systems. Hence, a semi-empirical approach (the Lindeloff model) was adopted for modeling the viscosity behavior. Based on the analysis, appropriate adjustments have been suggested: the major one is the division of the pressure-viscosity profile into three distinct regions. New modifications have improved the overall fit, including the saturated viscosities at low pressures. However, with the limited

  20. The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2008-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005

  1. The Changing Character of Precipitation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trenberth, Kevin E.; Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Parsons, David B.

    2003-09-01

    From a societal, weather, and climate perspective, precipitation intensity, duration, frequency, and phase are as much of concern as total amounts, as these factors determine the disposition of precipitation once it hits the ground and how much runs off. At the extremes of precipitation incidence are the events that give rise to floods and droughts, whose changes in occurrence and severity have an enormous impact on the environment and society. Hence, advancing understanding and the ability to model and predict the character of precipitation is vital but requires new approaches to examining data and models. Various mechanisms, storms and so forth, exist to bring about precipitation. Because the rate of precipitation, conditional on when it falls, greatly exceeds the rate of replenishment of moisture by surface evaporation, most precipitation comes from moisture already in the atmosphere at the time the storm begins, and transport of moisture by the storm-scale circulation into the storm is vital. Hence, the intensity of precipitation depends on available moisture, especially for heavy events. As climate warms, the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, which is governed by the Clausius- Clapeyron equation, is expected to rise much faster than the total precipitation amount, which is governed by the surface heat budget through evaporation. This implies that the main changes to be experienced are in the character of precipitation: increases in intensity must be offset by decreases in duration or frequency of events. The timing, duration, and intensity of precipitation can be systematically explored via the diurnal cycle, whose correct simulation in models remains an unsolved challenge of vital importance in global climate change. Typical problems include the premature initiation of convection, and precipitation events that are too light and too frequent. These challenges in observations, modeling, and understanding precipitation changes are being taken up in the NCAR

  2. Improvement of Cold Season Land Precipitation Retrievals Through The Use Of WRF Simulations and High Frequency Microwave Radiative Transfer Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.; Gopalan, K.; Tao, W.; Shi, J. J.

    2009-12-01

    As we move from the TRMM to GPM era, more emphasis will be placed on a larger regime of precipitation in mid- and high-latitudes, including light rain, mixed-phase precipitation and snowfall. In these areas, a large and highly variable portion of the total annual precipitation is snow. There is a wealth of observational evidence of brightness temperature depression from frozen hydrometeor scattering at the high frequency from aircraft and spacecraft microwave instruments. Research on the development of snowfall retrieval over land has become increasing important in the last few years (Chen and Staelin, 2003; Kongoli et al., 2004; Skofronick-Jackson et al., 2004, Noh et al., 2006; Aonashi et al., 2007; Liu, 2008; Grecu and Olson, 2008; Kim et al., 2008). However, there is still a considerable amount of work that needs to be done to develop global snowfall detection and retrieval algorithms. This paper describes the development and testing of snowfall models and retrieval algorithms using WRF snowfall simulations and high frequency radiative transfer models for snowfall events took place in January 2007 over Ontario, Canada.

  3. Postprocessing of simulated precipitation for impact research in West Africa. Part II: A weather generator for daily data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paeth, Heiko; Diederich, Malte

    2011-04-01

    Data from global and regional climate models refer to grid cells and, hence, are basically different from station data. This particularly holds for variables with enhanced spatio-temporal variability like precipitation. On the other hand, many applications like for instance hydrological models require atmospheric data with the statistical characteristics of station data. Here, we present a dynamical-statistical tool to construct virtual station data based on regional climate model output for tropical West Africa. This weather generator (WEGE) incorporates daily gridded rainfall from the model, an orographic term and a stochastic term, accounting for the chaotic spatial distribution of local rain events within a model grid box. In addition, the simulated probability density function of daily precipitation is adjusted to available station data in Benin. It is also assured that the generated data are still consistent with other model parameters like cloudiness and atmospheric circulation. The resulting virtual station data are in excellent agreement with various observed characteristics which are not explicitly addressed by the WEGE algorithm. This holds for the mean daily rainfall intensity and variability, the relative number of rainless days and the scaling of precipitation in time. The data set has already been used successfully for various climate impact studies in Benin.

  4. Comparison of Four Precipitation Forcing Datasets in Land Information System Simulations over the Continental U.S.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Case, Jonathan L.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Kuliogwski, Robert J.; Langston, Carrie

    2013-01-01

    This paper and poster presented a description of the current real-time SPoRT-LIS run over the southeastern CONUS to provide high-resolution, land surface initialization grids for local numerical model forecasts at NWS forecast offices. The LIS hourly output also offers a supplemental dataset to aid in situational awareness for convective initiation forecasts, assessing flood potential, and monitoring drought at fine scales. It is a goal of SPoRT and several NWS forecast offices to expand the LIS to an entire CONUS domain, so that LIS output can be utilized by NWS Western Region offices, among others. To make this expansion cleanly so as to provide high-quality land surface output, SPoRT tested new precipitation datasets in LIS as an alternative forcing dataset to the current radar+gauge Stage IV product. Similar to the Stage IV product, the NMQ product showed comparable patterns of precipitation and soil moisture distribution, but suffered from radar gaps in the intermountain West, and incorrectly set values to zero instead of missing in the data-void regions of Mexico and Canada. The other dataset tested was the next-generation GOES-R QPE algorithm, which experienced a high bias in both coverage and intensity of accumulated precipitation relative to the control (NLDAS2), Stage IV, and NMQ simulations. The resulting root zone soil moisture was substantially higher in most areas.

  5. GPGPU Approach: Simulation of the Interaction of Heavy Interstellar Atoms with the Heliosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeStefano, A.

    2014-12-01

    Running simulations is an involved process taking many hours of computational time to complete. With the advent of cluster computing and parallel processing, problems may be solved in much less time compared to those run in serial. Specifically, NVIDIA released the parallel computing platform CUDA in 2007 giving researchers and programmers access to the GPU to solve generalized problems, and not those of just images.In current research, code has previously been developed to study the interaction of the heliosphere and heavy atoms from the local interstellar medium.Ionized species of hydrogen, helium and other heavy atoms are deflected by the heliosphere where as the neutral species are relatively unimpeded. Charge exchange of these neutral particles may occur between ionized species originating from the solar wind or other populations of pickup ions (PUI) modifying the shape and properties of the heliosphere, compared to one without neutrals. The details of the charge exchange interaction are element dependent and need to be investigated one by one. Current research has studied the interaction of local interstellar hydrogen with the heliosphere quite extensively with theory, simulations and modeling.Since hydrogen is the most abundant element care must be taken when coupling MHD equations with the charge exchange interactions. Simulation code has been developed to account for this dynamic problem and they have shown that the shape of the heliosphere is affected by this. Interstellar atoms heavier than hydrogen interacting with the heliosphere has been looked at as well, but not nearly with as much detail or sophisticated models as hydrogen. The heavy atom data collected by IBEX has in this sense been under-utilized by models.Previously, the simulation was computed with the use of MPI (Message Passing Interface) for parallelization. This approach provided a decrease in computational time. However, CUDA enables the programmer to take advantage of the computer

  6. [Effects of heavy metal (copper and cadmium) coupled with Ulca pertusa on marine inorganic carbon system in simulated experiments].

    PubMed

    Zheng, Guo-xia; Song, Jin-ming; Dai, Ji-cui

    2006-12-01

    Simulated experiments coupled with ocean biota dynamics were performed in laboratory. In these experiments, effects of heavy metal (copper and cadmium) coupled with Ulca pertusa on marine inorganic carbon system and CO2 fluxes were investigated. The results indicated that concentration changes (delta) of components in carbon dioxide system with time scale were correlated with the concentrations and kinds of heavy metal. In copper groups and cadmium groups (0.1 micromol x L(-1) and 1 micromol x L(-1)), DIC HCO3- and PCO2 significantly decreased comparing to the control experiment data( p = 0.01). However, when the heavy metal infusions were higher than the "critical concentration", the above mentioned parameters increased with time scale and their increments followed the uptrend with increasing heavy metal concentrations. The "critical concentration" in copper groups was much lower than that in cadmium groups, which attributed to the tolerance diversity of Ulca pertusa to copper and cadmium. Furthermore, CO2 fluxes under the influences of heavy metal were also regularly changed with time. Sea waters with low infusions of heavy metal represented as sinks to the atmosphere CO2. These sinks would probably convert into CO2 sources after a period of time. Sea waters with comparatively high amount of heavy metal were always to be CO2 sources, and their release fluxes of CO2 augmented along with the increasing infusions of heavy metal.

  7. High-resolution stochastic downscaling of climate models: simulating wind advection, cloud cover and precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    A new stochastic approach to generate wind advection, cloud cover and precipitation fields is presented with the aim of formulating a space-time weather generator characterized by fields with high spatial and temporal resolution (e.g., 1 km x 1 km and 5 min). Its use is suitable for stochastic downscaling of climate scenarios in the context of hydrological, ecological and geomorphological applications. The approach is based on concepts from the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN) presented by Fatichi et al. (2011, Adv. Water Resour.), the Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation model (STREAP) introduced by Paschalis et al. (2013, Water Resour. Res.), and the High-Resolution Synoptically conditioned Weather Generator (HiReS-WG) presented by Peleg and Morin (2014, Water Resour. Res.). Advection fields are generated on the basis of the 500 hPa u and v wind direction variables derived from global or regional climate models. The advection velocity and direction are parameterized using Kappa and von Mises distributions respectively. A random Gaussian fields is generated using a fast Fourier transform to preserve the spatial correlation of advection. The cloud cover area, total precipitation area and mean advection of the field are coupled using a multi-autoregressive model. The approach is relatively parsimonious in terms of computational demand and, in the context of climate change, allows generating many stochastic realizations of current and projected climate in a fast and efficient way. A preliminary test of the approach is presented with reference to a case study in a complex orography terrain in the Swiss Alps.

  8. Simulations of longitudinal beam dynamics of space-charge dominated beams for heavy ion fusion

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, D.A.C.

    1994-12-01

    The longitudinal instability has potentially disastrous effects on the ion beams used for heavy ion driven inertial confinement fusion. This instability is a {open_quotes}resistive wall{close_quotes} instability with the impedance coining from the induction modules in the accelerator used as a driver. This instability can greatly amplify perturbations launched from the beam head and can prevent focusing of the beam onto the small spot necessary for fusion. This instability has been studied using the WARPrz particle-in-cell code. WARPrz is a 2 1/2 dimensional electrostatic axisymmetric code. This code includes a model for the impedance of the induction modules. Simulations with resistances similar to that expected in a driver show moderate amounts of growth from the instability as a perturbation travels from beam head to tail as predicted by cold beam fluid theory. The perturbation reflects off the beam tail and decays as it travels toward the beam head. Nonlinear effects cause the perturbation to steepen during reflection. Including the capacitive component of the, module impedance. has a partially stabilizing effect on the longitudinal instability. This reduction in the growth rate is seen in both cold beam fluid theory and in simulations with WARPrz. Instability growth rates for warm beams measured from WARPrz are lower than cold beam fluid theory predicts. Longitudinal thermal spread cannot account for this decrease in the growth rate. A mechanism for coupling the transverse thermal spread to decay of the longitudinal waves is presented. The longitudinal instability is no longer a threat to the heavy ion fusion program. The simulations in this thesis have shown that the growth rate for this instability will not be as large as earlier calculations predicted.

  9. Trend analysis of extreme climate indices using simulated temperature and precipitation time series for the Carpathian basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pongracz, R.; Bartholy, J.; Szabo, P.; Kovacs, G.

    2009-09-01

    Global warming may be recognized both in shifts of regional mean climate, and also, in the frequency and intensity changes of different climate extremes. Several climate extreme indices are analyzed and compared for the Carpathian basin (located in Central/Eastern Europe) following the guidelines suggested by the joint WMO-CCl/CLIVAR Working Group on climate change detection. Our statistical trend analysis includes the evaluation of several extreme temperature and precipitation indices using different threshold values. In order to evaluate the expected trends (by 2071-2100 relative to the 1961-1990 reference period) in the Carpathian basin, daily values of meteorological variables are obtained from the outputs of various regional climate model (RCM) experiments accomplished in the frame of the completed EU-project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Horizontal resolution of the applied RCMs is 50 km. Two emission scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to compare past and future simulated values of the extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin. Furthermore, fine-resolution climate experiments of two additional RCMs adapted and run at the Department of Meteorology, Eotvos Lorand University are used to extend the trend analysis of climate extremes for the Carpathian basin. (1) Model PRECIS (run at 25 km horizontal resolution) was developed at the UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, and it uses the boundary conditions from the HadCM3 GCM. (2) Model RegCM3 (run at 10 km horizontal resolution) was developed by Giorgi et al. and it is available from the ICTP (International Centre for Theoretical Physics). Analysis of the simulated daily temperature datasets suggests that the detected regional warming is expected to continue in the 21st century. Cold temperature extremes are projected to decrease while warm extremes tend to increase significantly. Expected changes of annual precipitation indices are

  10. Future changes in European temperature and precipitation in an ensemble of Europe-CORDEX regional climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kjellström, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Jones, Colin

    2013-04-01

    In this study we investigate possible changes in temperature and precipitation on a regional scale over Europe from 1961 to 2100. We use data from two ensembles of climate simulations, one global and one regional, over the Europe-CORDEX domain. The global ensemble includes nine coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) from the CMIP5 project with horizontal resolution varying from about 1° to 3°, namely CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-MR, NorESM1-M, EC-EARTH, MIROC5, GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR. In the regional ensemble all 9 AOGCMs are downscaled at the Rossby Centre (SMHI) by a regional climate model - RCA4 at 0.44° resolution. Two forcing scenarios are considered, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The experimental setup allows us to illustrate how uncertainties in future climate change are related to forcing scenario and to forcing AOGCM at different time periods. Further, we investigate the benefit of the higher horizontal resolution, in RCA4 by comparing the results to the coarser driving AOGCM data. The significance of the results is investigated by comparing to i) the model simulated natural variability, and, ii) the biases in the control period. Results dealing with changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation and their relation to changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation are presented. We also address higher-order variability by showing results for changes in temperature extremes and for changes in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation.

  11. Simulation of O+ upflows created by electron precipitation and Alfvén waves in the ionosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sydorenko, D.; Rankin, R.

    2013-09-01

    A two-dimensional model of magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is presented. It includes Alfvén wave dynamics, ion motion along the geomagnetic field, chemical reactions between ions and neutrals, collisions between different species, and a parametric model of electron precipitation. Representative simulations are presented, along with a discussion of the physical mechanisms that are important in forming oxygen ion field-aligned plasma flows. In particular, it is demonstrated that ion upwelling is strongly affected by the ponderomotive force of standing Alfvén waves in the ionospheric Alfvén resonator, and by enhanced electric fields that are produced when electrons are heated by soft electron precipitation. It is verified that the simulations are in qualitative agreement with available theoretical predictions. In the resonator, in addition to the ponderomotive force, a contribution to the upflow comes from centrifugal acceleration. Heating by the current of standing waves increases parallel electric fields and ion pressure gradients only at low altitudes where they are easily balanced by friction with neutrals. This prevents development of fast field-aligned ion flows in the E-layer and lower F-layer.

  12. Effects of simulated acid precipitation on decomposition and leaching of organic carbon in forest soils

    SciTech Connect

    Chang, F.H.; Alexander, M.

    1984-09-01

    Soil samples from three watersheds of New York State were treated with simulated rain at pH 3.5, 4.1, and 5.6 daily for 14 d, at 12 3-d intervals in three separate tests, or at 22 7-d intervals. Except for one system of treating the three forest soils, simulated acid rain reduced the amount of organic matter leached from samples of soil from which more than 0.05% of the organic carbon was leached during the exposure period. In the soil samples representing the exceptions, acid rain enhanced the leaching of organic matter. Samples from the organic layer of the treated samples of acid soil were taken at two equal depths, and the rates of organic matter decomposition in the two layers were studied. As compared with simulated rain at pH 5.6, simulated acid rain reduced the decomposition of organic matter in the three soils at both depths in three of the five tests and at both depths of two of the soils in the fourth test. In some instances, organic matter decomposition was enhanced by the simulated acid rain. Except for the sample of soil at the highest initial pH, carbon mineralization was inhibited in soils and treatments in which simulated acid rain reduced the amount of organic carbon leached, and it was stimulated in soils and treatments in which the quantity of organic carbon leached was increased by the simulated acid rain. 12 references, 3 figures, 8 tables.

  13. Formation of complex precursors of amino acids by irradiation of simulated interstellar media with heavy ions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, K.; Suzuki, N.; Taniuchi, T.; Kaneko, T.; Yoshida, S.

    A wide variety of organic compounds have been detected in such extraterrestrial bodies as meteorites and comets Amino acids were identified in the extracts from Murchison meteorite and other carbonaceous chondrites It is hypothesized that these compounds are originally formed in ice mantles of interstellar dusts ISDs in molecular clouds by cosmic rays and ultraviolet light UV Formation of amino acid precursors by high energy protons or UV irradiation of simulated ISDs was reported by several groups The amino acid precursors were however not well-characterized We irradiated a frozen mixture of methanol ammonia and water with heavy ions to study possible organic compounds abiotically formed in molecular clouds by cosmic rays A mixture of methanol ammonia and water was irradiated with carbon beams 290 MeV u from a heavy ion accelerator HIMAC of National Institute of Radiological Sciences Japan Irradiation was performed either at room temperature liquid phase or at 77 K solid phase The products were characterized by gel filtration chromatography GFC FT-IR pyrolysis PY -GC MS etc Amino acids were analyzed by HPLC and GC MS after acid hydrolysis or the products Amino acids such as glycine and alanine were identified in the products in both the cases of liquid phase and solid phase irradiation Energy yields G-values of glycine were 0 014 liquid phase and 0 007 solid phase respectively Average molecular weights of the products were estimated as to 2300 in both the case Aromatic hydrocarbons N-containing heterocyclic

  14. Simulating speleothem growth in the laboratory: Determination of stable isotope fractionation factors during precipitation of speleothem calcite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Maximilian; Schöne, Bernd R.; Spötl, Christoph; Scholz, Denis

    2016-04-01

    We present laboratory experiments aiming to understand the processes affecting the δ13C and δ18O values of speleothems during precipitation of calcite from a thin layer of solution. In particular, we determined the precipitation rates and the isotope fractionation factors in dependence of several parameters, such as temperature, cave pCO2 and supersaturation with respect to calcite. The experiments were performed in a climate box in order to simulate cave conditions and to control them during the experiments[1]. In the experiments, a thin film of a CaCO3-CO2-H2O-solution supersaturated with respect to calcite flew down an inclined marble surface or a sand-blasted borosilicate glass plate, and the drip water was sampled at different distances and, thus, residence times on the plate. Subsequently, pH, electrical conductivity and the δ13C and δ18O values of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) as well as the precipitated CaCO3 were determined. In addition, we determined the stable isotope values of the drip water and the atmosphere inside the box during the experiments. This enabled the identification of carbon and oxygen isotope fractionation factors between all carbonate species. The experiments were conducted at 10, 20 and 30 ° C, a pCO2 of 1000 and 3000 ppmV and with a Ca2+ concentration of 2 and 5 mmol/l. We observed an exponential decay of conductivity with increasing distance of flow documenting progressive precipitation of calcite confirming previous observations[2]. The corresponding time constants of precipitation range from 180 to 660 s. Both the δ13C and δ18O values show a progressive increase along the flow path. The enrichment of the δ13C values seems to be strongly influenced by kinetic isotope fractionation, whereas the δ18O values are in the range of isotopic equilibrium. The fractionation between the precipitated CaCO3 and DIC is between -1 and - 6.5 ‰ for carbon isotopes (13ɛ) and between -1.5 and -3 ‰ for oxygen isotopes (18ɛ). The

  15. Mechanism of amorphous silica particles precipitation: simulation approach compared to experimental results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noguera, Claudine; Fritz, Bertrand; Clement, Alain

    2015-04-01

    Despite its importance in numerous industrial and natural processes, many unsolved questions remain regarding the mechanism of silica precipitation in aqueous solutions: order of the reaction, role of silica oligomers, existence of an induction time and characteristics of the particle population. Beyond empirical approaches used in the past, we demonstrate that the classical nucleation theory associated to a size dependent growth law, as embedded in the NANOKIN code (1-3), allows a quantitative description of precipitation occurring under largely different experimental conditions : preexisting initial supersaturation in a large domain of temperature (5-150°C) and chemical composition (4), supersaturation reached by neutralization of a high pH silica solution (5) or by fast cooling (6). In that way, the mechanism of silica precipitation can be unraveled. We are able to discard the hypothesis of an induction time as an explanation for the plateaus observed in the saturation curves in these experiments. We challenge the role of oligomer incorporation at the growth stage to account for the observed rate laws and we stress the difference between the order of the growth law and the order of the total reaction rate. We also demonstrate that the characteristics of the particle population are strongly dependent on the way supersaturation is reached (7). Such a microscopic approach thus proves to be well suited to elucidate the mechanism of nanoparticle formation in natural and industrial contexts, involving silica, but also other mineral phases produced as nanoparticles (8). (1) Noguera C., Fritz B., Clément A. and Barronet A., J. Cryst. Growth, 2006, 297, 180. (2) Noguera C., Fritz B., Clément A. and Barronet A., J. Cryst. Growth, 2006, 297, 187. (3) Fritz B., Clément A., Amal Y. and Noguera C., Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 2009, 73, 1340. (4) Rothbaum, H.P. and Rohde A.G., J. Colloid Interf. Sci., 1979,71, 533. (5) Tobler D.J., Shaw S. and Benning L.G., Geochim

  16. Large-eddy simulation of heavy particle dispersion in wall-bounded turbulent flows

    SciTech Connect

    Salvetti, M.V.

    2015-03-10

    Capabilities and accuracy issues in Lagrangian tracking of heavy particles in velocity fields obtained from large-eddy simulations (LES) of wall-bounded turbulent flows are reviewed. In particular, it is shown that, if no subgrid scale (SGS) model is added to the particle motion equations, particle preferential concentration and near-wall accumulation are significantly underestimated. Results obtained with SGS modeling for the particle motion equations based on approximate deconvolution are briefly recalled. Then, the error purely due to filtering in particle tracking in LES flow fields is singled out and analyzed. The statistical properties of filtering errors are characterized in turbulent channel flow both from an Eulerian and a Lagrangian viewpoint. Implications for stochastic SGS modeling in particle motion equations are briefly outlined.

  17. [Numerical simulation and application of electrical resistivity survey in heavy metal contaminated sites].

    PubMed

    Wang, Yu-ling; Nai, Chang-xin; Wang, Yan-wen; Dong, Lu

    2013-05-01

    In order to analyze the effects of electrical resistivity in heavy metal contaminated sites, we established the resistivity model of typical contaminated sites and simulate the DC resistivity method with Wenner arrays using the finite element method. The simulation results showed that the electrical method was influenced by the contamination concentration and the location of pollution. The more serious the degree of pollution was, the more obvious the low resistivity anomaly, thus the easier the identification of the contaminated area; otherwise, if there was light pollution, Wenner array could not get obvious low resistivity anomalies, so it would be hard to judge the contaminated area. Our simulation results also showed that the closer the contaminated areas were to the surface, the more easily the pollution was detected and the low resistivity anomalies shown in the apparent resistivity diagram were influenced by the Layered medium. The actual field survey results using resistivity method also show that the resistivity method can correctly detect the area with serious pollution. PMID:23914547

  18. Simulated orbits of heavy planetary ions at Mars for different IMF configurations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, Shannon; Luhmann, Janet; Livi, Roberto; Hara, Takuya; Dong, Chuanfei; Ma, Yingjuan; McFadden, James; Bougher, Stephen

    2014-11-01

    We present simulated detections of O+, O2+ and CO2+ ions at Mars along a virtual orbit in the Mars space environment. Planetary pick-up ions are formed through the direct interaction of the solar wind with the neutral upper atmosphere, causing the newly created ions to be picked up and accelerated by the background convective electric field. Because previous missions such as Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) and Mars Express (MEX) have not been able to measure the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components simultaneously with plasma measurements, the response of heavy planetary pick-up ions to changes in the IMF has not been well characterized. Using a steady-state multi-species MHD model to provide the background electric and magnetic fields, the Mars Test Particle (MTP) simulation can trace each of these particles along field lines in near-Mars space and construct virtual ion detections from a spacecraft orbit. Specifically, we will present energy-time spectrograms and velocity space distributions (VSDs) for a selection of orbits during different IMF configurations and solar cycle conditions. These simulated orbits have broader implications for how to measure ion escape. Using individual particle traces, the origin and trajectories of different ion populations can be analyzed in order to assess how and where they contribute to the total atmospheric escape rate, which is a major objective of the upcoming MAVEN mission.

  19. The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2012-01-01

    Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low clean concentration and a high dirty concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

  20. Multi-scale simulation of structural heterogeneity of swift-heavy ion tracks in complex oxides.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jianwei; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rodney C; Becker, Udo

    2013-04-01

    Tracks formed by swift-heavy ion irradiation, 2.2 GeV Au, of isometric Gd2Ti2O7 pyrochlore and orthorhombic Gd2TiO5 were modeled using the thermal-spike model combined with a molecular-dynamics simulation. The thermal-spike model was used to calculate the energy dissipation over time and space. Using the time, space, and energy profile generated from the thermal-spike model, the molecular-dynamics simulations were performed to model the atomic-scale evolution of the tracks. The advantage of the combination of these two methods, which uses the output from the continuum model as an input for the atomistic model, is that it provides a means of simulating the coupling of the electronic and atomic subsystems and provides simultaneously atomic-scale detail of the track structure and morphology. The simulated internal structure of the track consists of an amorphous core and a shell of disordered, but still periodic, domains. For Gd2Ti2O7, the shell region has a disordered pyrochlore with a defect fluorite structure and is relatively thick and heterogeneous with different degrees of disordering. For Gd2TiO5, the disordered region is relatively small as compared with Gd2Ti2O7. In the simulation, 'facets', which are surfaces with definite crystallographic orientations, are apparent around the amorphous core and more evident in Gd2TiO5 along [010] than [001], suggesting an orientational dependence of the radiation response. These results show that track formation is controlled by the coupling of several complex processes, involving different degrees of amorphization, disordering, and dynamic annealing. Each of the processes depends on the mass and energy of the energetic ion, the properties of the material, and its crystallographic orientation with respect to the incident ion beam.

  1. Multi-scale simulation of structural heterogeneity of swift-heavy ion tracks in complex oxides

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jianwei; Lang, Maik; Ewing, Rodney C.; Becker, Udo

    2013-04-01

    Tracks formed by swift-heavy ion irradiation, 2.2 GeV Au, of isometric Gd2Ti2O7 pyrochlore and orthorhombic Gd2TiO5 were modeled using the thermal-spike model combined with a molecular-dynamics simulation. The thermal-spike model was used to calculate the energy dissipation over time and space. Using the time, space, and energy profile generated from the thermal-spike model, the molecular-dynamics simulations were performed to model the atomic-scale evolution of the tracks. The advantage of the combination of these two methods, which uses the output from the continuum model as an input for the atomistic model, is that it provides a means of simulating the coupling of the electronic and atomic subsystems and provides simultaneously atomic-scale detail of the track structure and morphology. The simulated internal structure of the track consists of an amorphous core and a shell of disordered, but still periodic, domains. For Gd2Ti2O7, the shell region has a disordered pyrochlore with a defect fluorite structure and is relatively thick and heterogeneous with different degrees of disordering. For Gd2TiO5, the disordered region is relatively small as compared with Gd2Ti2O7. In the simulation, ‘facets’, which are surfaces with definite crystallographic orientations, are apparent around the amorphous core and more evident in Gd2TiO5 along [010] than [001], suggesting an orientational dependence of the radiation response. These results show that track formation is controlled by the coupling of several complex processes, involving different degrees of amorphization, disordering, and dynamic annealing. Each of the processes depends on the mass and energy of the energetic ion, the properties of the material, and its crystallographic orientation with respect to the incident ion beam.

  2. Macroscopic impacts of cloud and precipitation processes on maritime shallow convection as simulated by a large eddy simulation model with bin microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabowski, W. W.; Wang, L.-P.; Prabha, T. V.

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of cloud and precipitation processes on macrophysical properties of shallow convective clouds as simulated by a large eddy model applying warm-rain bin microphysics. Simulations with and without collision-coalescence are considered with cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations of 30, 60, 120, and 240 mg-1. Simulations with collision-coalescence include either the standard gravitational collision kernel or a novel kernel that includes enhancements due to the small-scale cloud turbulence. Simulations with droplet collisions were discussed in Wyszogrodzki et al. (2013) focusing on the impact of the turbulent collision kernel. The current paper expands that analysis and puts model results in the context of previous studies. Despite a significant increase of the drizzle/rain with the decrease of CCN concentration, enhanced by the effects of the small-scale turbulence, impacts on the macroscopic cloud field characteristics are relatively minor. Model results show a systematic shift in the cloud-top height distributions, with an increasing contribution of deeper clouds for stronger precipitating cases. We show that this is consistent with the explanation suggested in Wyszogrodzki et al. (2013); namely, the increase of drizzle/rain leads to a more efficient condensate offloading in the upper parts of the cloud field. A second effect involves suppression of the cloud droplet evaporation near cloud edges in low-CCN simulations, as documented in previous studies (e.g., Xue and Feingold, 2006). We pose the question whether the effects of cloud turbulence on drizzle/rain formation in shallow cumuli can be corroborated by remote sensing observations, for instance, from space. Although a clear signal is extracted from model results, we argue that the answer is negative due to uncertainties caused by the temporal variability of the shallow convective cloud field, sampling and spatial resolution of the satellite data, and overall accuracy of

  3. Development of a Precipitation-Runoff Model to Simulate Unregulated Streamflow in the Salmon Creek Basin, Okanogan County, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    van Heeswijk, Marijke

    2006-01-01

    Surface water has been diverted from the Salmon Creek Basin for irrigation purposes since the early 1900s, when the Bureau of Reclamation built the Okanogan Project. Spring snowmelt runoff is stored in two reservoirs, Conconully Reservoir and Salmon Lake Reservoir, and gradually released during the growing season. As a result of the out-of-basin streamflow diversions, the lower 4.3 miles of Salmon Creek typically has been a dry creek bed for almost 100 years, except during the spring snowmelt season during years of high runoff. To continue meeting the water needs of irrigators but also leave water in lower Salmon Creek for fish passage and to help restore the natural ecosystem, changes are being considered in how the Okanogan Project is operated. This report documents development of a precipitation-runoff model for the Salmon Creek Basin that can be used to simulate daily unregulated streamflows. The precipitation-runoff model is a component of a Decision Support System (DSS) that includes a water-operations model the Bureau of Reclamation plans to develop to study the water resources of the Salmon Creek Basin. The DSS will be similar to the DSS that the Bureau of Reclamation and the U.S. Geological Survey developed previously for the Yakima River Basin in central southern Washington. The precipitation-runoff model was calibrated for water years 1950-89 and tested for water years 1990-96. The model was used to simulate daily streamflows that were aggregated on a monthly basis and calibrated against historical monthly streamflows for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam. Additional calibration data were provided by the snowpack water-equivalent record for a SNOTEL station in the basin. Model input time series of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures were based on data from climate stations in the study area. Historical records of unregulated streamflow for Salmon Creek at Conconully Dam do not exist for water years 1950-96. Instead, estimates of

  4. Impact of MODIS and AIRS total precipitable water on modifying the vertical shear and Hurricane Emily simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yi-Chin; Chen, Shu-Hua; Chien, Fang-Ching

    2011-01-01

    The impact of retrieved total precipitable water (TPW) from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) infrared (IR), MODIS near-infrared (NIR), and the combined Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)-IR and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-Microwave channels on simulations of Hurricane Emily was assessed and compared using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and its three-dimensional variation data assimilation (3D-Var) system. After assimilating MODIS IR TPW, the model clearly better reproduced storm tracking, intensity, and the 10 m wind field, while the improvement was limited or nil when assimilating either MODIS NIR TPW or AIRS TPW. After the data assimilation of MODIS IR TPW, a positive moisture increment was present to the east of the simulated storm in 3D-Var analysis (i.e., initial conditions). The positive TPW increment enhanced a convective cloud, which was also observed by satellites. The convective cloud effectively modulated the height and wind fields, resulting in a weakening of the vertical wind shear (VWS) over the region. The weak VWS band was then advected to the north of the storm, preventing the storm from attaching to the strong VWS zone located between 20°N and 30°N. There was no such positive moisture increment, convective cloud, or weak VWS band occurring to the east of the simulated storm in the other data assimilation experiments. This explains why the simulated storm intensified with assimilation of MODIS IR TPW but not for the other experiments.

  5. Empirical force field-based kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of precipitate evolution and growth in Al–Cu alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joshi, Kaushik; Chaudhuri, Santanu

    2016-10-01

    Ability to accelerate the morphological evolution of nanoscale precipitates is a fundamental challenge for atomistic simulations. Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) methodology is an effective approach for accelerating the evolution of nanoscale systems that are dominated by so-called rare events. The quality and accuracy of energy landscape used in KMC calculations can be significantly improved using DFT-informed interatomic potentials. Using newly developed computational framework that uses molecular simulator LAMMPS as a library function inside KMC solver SPPARKS, we investigated formation and growth of Guiner–Preston (GP) zones in dilute Al–Cu alloys at different temperature and copper concentrations. The KMC simulations with angular dependent potential (ADP) predict formation of coherent disc-shaped monolayers of copper atoms (GPI zones) in early stage. Such monolayers are then gradually transformed into energetically favored GPII phase that has two aluminum layers sandwiched between copper layers. We analyzed the growth kinetics of KMC trajectory using Johnson–Mehl–Avrami (JMA) theory and obtained a phase transformation index close to 1.0. In the presence of grain boundaries, the KMC calculations predict the segregation of copper atoms near the grain boundaries instead of formation of GP zones. The computational framework presented in this work is based on open source potentials and MD simulator and can predict morphological changes during the evolution of the alloys in the bulk and around grain boundaries.

  6. The global distribution of natural tritium in precipitation simulated with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model and comparison with observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cauquoin, A.; Jean-Baptiste, P.; Risi, C.; Fourré, É.; Stenni, B.; Landais, A.

    2015-10-01

    The description of the hydrological cycle in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) can be validated using water isotopes as tracers. Many GCMs now simulate the movement of the stable isotopes of water, but here we present the first GCM simulations modelling the content of natural tritium in water. These simulations were obtained using a version of the LMDZ General Circulation Model enhanced by water isotopes diagnostics, LMDZ-iso. To avoid tritium generated by nuclear bomb testing, the simulations have been evaluated against a compilation of published tritium datasets dating from before 1950, or measured recently. LMDZ-iso correctly captures the observed tritium enrichment in precipitation as oceanic air moves inland (the so-called continental effect) and the observed north-south variations due to the latitudinal dependency of the cosmogenic tritium production rate. The seasonal variability, linked to the stratospheric intrusions of air masses with higher tritium content into the troposphere, is correctly reproduced for Antarctica with a maximum in winter. LMDZ-iso reproduces the spring maximum of tritium over Europe, but underestimates it and produces a peak in winter that is not apparent in the data. This implementation of tritium in a GCM promises to provide a better constraint on: (1) the intrusions and transport of air masses from the stratosphere, and (2) the dynamics of the modelled water cycle. The method complements the existing approach of using stable water isotopes.

  7. Uncertainties of the global-to-regional temperature and precipitation simulations in CMIP5 models for past and future 100 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Lilong; Xu, Jianjun; Powell, Alfred M.; Jiang, Zhihong

    2015-10-01

    Global-to-regional surface temperature and precipitation trends are examined based on the CMIP5 model 100 years of historical simulations and another future 100 years following the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenario projection. Different from the ensemble mean approach in the previous studies, the probabilistic multimodal ensemble prediction with Gaussian fitting is used to generate probabilistic simulations. The results show that the averaged precipitation increases slightly with global warming, but the response is not globally uniform. Both historical model simulations and the RCP emission scenario projections suffer from large uncertainties in the selected models and the geographic distribution. The spatial distribution of spreads among the multimodal scenario projections is similar to that in the historical simulations, except the magnitude of spread sharply increases and the region expands equatorward and poleward in surface temperature and precipitation, respectively.

  8. Low-pressure systems and extreme precipitation in central India: sensitivity to temperature changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sørland, Silje Lund; Sorteberg, Asgeir

    2016-07-01

    Extreme rainfall events in the central Indian region are often related to the passage of synoptic scale monsoon low-pressure systems (LPS). This study uses the surrogate climate change method on ten monsoon LPS cases connected to observed extreme rainfall events, to investigate how sensitive the precipitation and runoff are to an idealized warmer and moister atmosphere. The ten cases are simulated with three different initial and lateral boundary conditions: the unperturbed control run, and two sets of perturbed runs where the atmospheric temperature is increased uniformly throughout the atmosphere, the specific humidity increased according to Clausius Clapeyron's relation, but the large-scale flow is unchanged. The difference between the control and perturbed simulations are mainly due to the imposed warming and feedback influencing the synoptic flow. The mean precipitation change with warming in the central Indian region is 18-20 %/K, with largest changes at the end of the LPS tracks. The LPS in the warmer runs are bringing more moisture further inland that is released as precipitation. In the perturbed runs the precipitation rate is increasing at all percentiles, and there is more frequent rainfall with very heavy intensities. This leads to a shift in which category that contributes most to the total precipitation: more of the precipitation is coming from the category with very heavy intensities. The runoff changes are similar to the precipitation changes, except the response in intensity of very heavy runoff, which is around twice the change in intensity of very heavy precipitation.

  9. Computer simulation helps increase life of impeller in alumina hydrate precipitation from 2 to 8 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weetman, R. J.

    1998-08-01

    The rate at which an impeller wears is a strong function of the velocity at the leading edge. Blades often fail due to extreme erosion. Simulating the impeller and tank of a draft tube mixer using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) helped extend the life of an impeller by two to eight years. The computer simulation, using FLUENT CFD software from Fluent Inc., Lebanon, NH, made it possible to quickly evaluate the leading edge velocity of several proposed new designs. The analysis helped identify the erosion problem by predicting the locations of wear patterns.

  10. The Linkages between Latent Heating to Cloud and Precipitation Profiles in WRF Model Simulations of Typhoon Chaba (2004)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, R.; Guo, J.; Fu, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Abstract Despite its fundamental role in driving the genesis and evolution of tropical cyclones as well as large scale atmospheric waves including ENSO, monsoon and MJO, the spatial and temporal distribution of latent heating (LH) remains one of the largest uncertainties in weather and climate modeling. With the rapid advance in satellite active sensors such as the TRMM PR, CloudSat CPR and the coming GPM DPR, more comprehensive and reliable observations of cloud and precipitation profiles provide great opportunities to improve the accuracy of estimating LH from space. However, LH is released through the 'processes' of water phase change in the atmosphere while satellite observations provide the estimation of the 'state' of cloud and precipitation, the physical linkages between LH to cloud and precipitation profiles are required to develop next generation physical-based LH algorithms. In this study, we examined the relationships among the condensations heating (LHcon), cloud water content (CWC) and rain rate (Rr) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations of typhoon Chaba (2004) under five different microphysical schemes including Purdue Lin, Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, WSM6, Thompson et al. and Morrison et al. 2-Moment schemes, respectively. Firstly, the LHcon has the highest correlations (~ 0.85 for convective rains) with the term of Rr αCWC which represents the rate of rain formation from auto-conversion and accretion. Although cloud and precipitation, as the ultimate outcomes of water vapor condensation process, also have inherent correlations to LHcon, the connections are significantly weaker than the LHcon - Rr αCWC linkages. Such findings are valid in all selected microphysical schemes in both 2-D CRM (Min et al 2013; Li et al 2013) and 3-D WRF simulations. Secondly, the sensitivity of maximum explained variances of LHcon by Rr αCWC to different microphysical schemes are relatively low. The associated optimal exponential of α is

  11. Observations and Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Development in Seeded Clouds over the Sierra Nevada.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, N.; Rodi, A. R.; Heymsfiield, A. J.

    1989-10-01

    The evolution of precipitation in seeded wintertime orographically induced convective and stratiform clouds with embedded convection were studied using in situ observations and particle growth and trajectory models. The particle growth model of Heymsfield embedded in a kinematic flow field representative of the Sierra barrier was used to study the ice particle growth by diffusion, accretion and subsequent fall trajectories. The particles observed by the aircraft were classified into habits. The growth of observed particles were compared with the model predicted evolution. Using the aggregation model of Heymsfield, the observation of formation of aggregates in <10 minutes was verified. The key findings of this study were.. (i) Aggregates (>1 mm) form in 4-8 minutes after seeding a convective cloud. (ii) Riming is important close to the barrier in a stratiform cloud when large cloud droplets and liquid water up to 0.3 g m3 are present. (iii) Diffusional growth is extremely important for temperatures near 15°C in these low liquid water content clouds. The particles grow to 2 mm when released from just colder than 15°C, and to 1 mm when falling from warmer than 15°C.

  12. Impacts of cloud and precipitation processes on maritime shallow convection as simulated by an LES model with bin microphysics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grabowski, W. W.; Wang, L.-P.; Prabha, T. V.

    2014-07-01

    This paper discusses impacts of cloud and precipitation processes on macrophysical properties of shallow convective clouds as simulated by a large-eddy model applying warm-rain bin microphysics. Simulations with and without collision-coalescence are considered with CCN concentrations of 30, 60, 120, and 240 mg-1. Simulations with collision-coalescence include either the traditional gravitational collision kernel or a novel kernel that includes enhancements due to the small-scale cloud turbulence. Simulations with droplet collisions were discussed in Wyszogrodzki et al. (2013) focusing on the impact of the turbulent collision kernel. The current paper expands that analysis and puts model results in the context of previous studies. Despite a significant increase of the drizzle/rain with the decrease of CCN concentration, enhanced by the impact of the small-scale turbulence, impacts on the macroscopic cloud field characteristics are relatively minor. We document a clear feedback between cloud-scale processes and the mean environmental profiles that increases with the amount of drizzle/rain. Model results show a systematic shift in the cloud top height distributions, with an increasing contributions of deeper clouds and an overall increase of the number of cloudy columns for stronger precipitating cases. We argue that this is consistent with the explanation suggested in Wyszogrodzki et al. (2013) namely, the increase of drizzle/rain leading to a more efficient condensate off-loading in the upper parts of the cloud field. An additional effect involves suppressing cloud droplet evaporation near cloud edges in low-CCN simulations as documented in previous studies. We pose a question whether the effects of cloud turbulence on drizzle/rain formation can be corroborated by remote sensing observations, for instance, from space. Although a clear signal is extracted from model results, we argue that the answer is negative due to uncertainties caused by the temporal variability

  13. Morphological evolution of coherent multivariant Ti{sub 11}Ni{sub 14} precipitates in Ti-Ni alloys under an applied stress -- A computer simulation study

    SciTech Connect

    Li, D.Y.; Chen, L.Q.

    1998-01-05

    Coherent precipitation of multi-variant Ti{sub 11}Ni{sup 14} precipitates in TiNi alloys was investigated by employing a continuum field kinetic model. The structural difference between the precipitate phase and the matrix as well as the orientational differences between precipitate variants are distinguished by nonconserved structural field variables, whereas the compositional difference between the precipitate and matrix is described by a conserved field variable. The temporal evolution of the spatially dependent field variables is determined by numerically solving the time-dependent Ginzburg-Landau (TDGL) equations for the structural variables and the Cahn-Hilliard diffusion equation for the composition. In particular, the interaction between precipitates, and the growth morphology of Ti{sub 11}Ni{sub 14} precipitates under strain-constraints were studied, without a priori assumptions on the precipitate shape and distribution. The predicted morphology and distribution of Ti{sub 11}Ni{sub 14} variants were compared with experimental observations. Excellent agreement between the simulation and experimental observations was found.

  14. Evaluation of fuel consumption potential of medium and heavy duty vehicles through modeling and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Delorme, A.; Karbowski, D.; Sharer, P.; Energy Systems

    2010-03-31

    The main objective of this report is to provide quantitative data to support the Committee in its task of establishing a report to support rulemaking on medium- and heavy-duty fuel efficiency improvement. In particular, it is of paramount importance for the Committee to base or illustrate their conclusions on established models and actual state-of-the art data. The simulations studies presented in the report have been defined and requested by the members of the National Academy committee to provide quantitative inputs to support their recommendations. As such, various technologies and usage scenarios were considered for several applications. One of the objective is to provide the results along with their associated assumptions (both vehicle and drive cycles), information generally missing from public discussions on literature search. Finally, the advantages and limitations of using simulation will be summarized. The study addresses several of the committee tasks, including: (1) Discussion of the implication of metric selection; (2) Assessing the impact of existing technologies on fuel consumption through energy balance analysis (both steady-state and standard cycles) as well as real world drive cycles; and (3) Impact of future technologies, both individually and collectively.

  15. Emission characteristics of a heavy-duty diesel engine at simulated high altitudes.

    PubMed

    He, Chao; Ge, Yunshan; Ma, Chaochen; Tan, Jianwei; Liu, Zhihua; Wang, Chu; Yu, Linxiao; Ding, Yan

    2011-08-01

    In order to evaluate the effects of altitude on the pollutant emissions of a diesel engine, an experimental research was carried out using an engine test bench with an altitude simulation system. The emissions of HC, CO, NOx, smoke, and particle number of a heavy-duty diesel engine were measured under steady state operating conditions at sea level and simulated altitudes of 1000 and 2000 m. The experimental results indicate that the high altitude increases the emissions of HC, CO and smoke of the diesel engine, the average increasing rates of which are 30%, 35% and 34% with addition of altitude of 1000 m, respectively. The effect of high altitudes on the NOx emission varies with the engine types and working conditions. At 1000 m the particles number emissions are 1.6 to 4.2 times the levels at the low altitude. The pattern of the particle size distributions at 1000 m is similar with that at sea-level, which is the mono-modal lognormal distribution with geometric mean diameter around 0.1 μm. However, the peak number concentrations of particles are bigger and the exhausted particles are smaller at the high altitude.

  16. Wind Tunnel Aerodynamic Characteristics of a Transport-type Airfoil in a Simulated Heavy Rain Environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bezos, Gaudy M.; Dunham, R. Earl, Jr.; Gentry, Garl L., Jr.; Melson, W. Edward, Jr.

    1992-01-01

    The effects of simulated heavy rain on the aerodynamic characteristics of an NACA 64-210 airfoil section equipped with leading-and trailing-edge high-lift devices were investigated in the Langley 14- by 22-Foot Subsonic Tunnel. The model had a chord of 2.5 ft, a span of 8 ft, and was mounted on the tunnel centerline between two large endplates. Aerodynamic measurements in and out of the simulated rain environment were obtained for dynamic pressures of 30 and 50 psf and an angle-of-attack range of 0 to 20 degrees for the cruise configuration. The rain intensity was varied to produce liquid water contents ranging from 16 to 46 gm/cu m. The results obtained for various rain intensity levels and tunnel speeds showed significant losses in maximum lift capability and increases in drag for a given lift as the liquid water content was increased. The results obtained on the landing configuration also indicate a progressive decrease in the angle of attack at which maximum lift occurred and an increase in the slope of the pitching-moment curve as the liquid water content was increased. The sensitivity of test results to the effects of the water surface tension was also investigated. A chemical was introduced into the rain environment that reduced the surface tension of water by a factor of 2. The reduction in the surface tension of water did not significantly alter the level of performance losses for the landing configuration.

  17. Use of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate natural streamflow conditions in the Methow River basin, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, David Matthew; Risley, John C.

    2001-01-01

    Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. Management options must be considered that minimize adverse effects on people but meet instream flow needs for fish. This report describes the construction and calibration of the Methow River Basin watershed model and evaluates the accuracy of the model as a predictive tool for assessing the natural instream flow conditions. The term ?natural? instream flow is stressed because surface water within the Basin is used for agricultural irrigation through an extensive system of diversions. The USGS Modular Modeling System was used for the watershed modeling component of the Methow River Basin study. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated the natural streamflow. Natural streamflow conditions in the Basin were difficult to calibrate because six of the seven streamflow gaging stations are located below irrigation diversions and few streamflow measurements exist for the study area before the diversions were present. Therefore, limited records of natural streamflow conditions were available and estimations concerning some physical processes could not be quantified. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-99 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well, yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of the total annual runoff as a percentage of measured annual runoff for the 8-year calibration period at seven gaging stations ranged from -33.7 to +30.5 percent with 70 percent of the simulated values within 16 percent. Simulation of water years

  18. Evaluation of the IPCC Models (AR4 and AR5) in the Precipitation Simulation in the Northeast of Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alves, José; Vasconcelos Junior, Francisco; Chaves, Rosane; Silva, Emerson; Servain, Jacques; Costa, Alexandre; Sombra, Sérgio; Barbosa, Augusto; Dos Santos, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    With the simulations of the models used in the latest reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comparative studies are necessary between observations and the so-called historical run (C20) and future projections of the AR4 (A2) and AR5 (RCP8.5) experiments, in order to assess whether the AR5 models had a better performance in the representation of physical processes. This article compares the sensitivity of IPCC models (AR4 and AR5) in representing the anuall average and seasonal rainfall variation (summer and autumn) in three regions of the Northeast of Brazil between 1979 and 2000, using the CMAP - CPC (Merged Analysis of Precipitation) data as reference. The projections made by these models for the period 2040-2070 were also analyzed.

  19. A simulation study of the recession coefficient for antecedent precipitation index. [soil moisture and water runoff estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Choudhury, B. J.; Blanchard, B. J.

    1981-01-01

    The antecedent precipitation index (API) is a useful indicator of soil moisture conditions for watershed runoff calculations and recent attempts to correlate this index with spaceborne microwave observations have been fairly successful. It is shown that the prognostic equation for soil moisture used in some of the atmospheric general circulation models together with Thornthwaite-Mather parameterization of actual evapotranspiration leads to API equations. The recession coefficient for API is found to depend on climatic factors through potential evapotranspiration and on soil texture through the field capacity and the permanent wilting point. Climatologial data for Wisconsin together with a recently developed model for global isolation are used to simulate the annual trend of the recession coefficient. Good quantitative agreement is shown with the observed trend at Fennimore and Colby watersheds in Wisconsin. It is suggested that API could be a unifying vocabulary for watershed and atmospheric general circulation modelars.

  20. Dissolution and precipitation behaviors of silicon-containing ceramic coating on Mg-Zn-Ca alloy in simulated body fluid.

    PubMed

    Pan, Yaokun; Chen, Chuanzhong; Wang, Diangang; Huang, Danlan

    2014-10-01

    We prepared Si-containing and Si-free coatings on Mg-1.74Zn-0.55Ca alloy by micro-arc oxidation. The dissolution and precipitation behaviors of Si-containing coating in simulated body fluid (SBF) were discussed. Corrosion products were characterized by scanning electron microscope (SEM), X-ray diffractometer (XRD), fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FT-IR) and X-ray photoelectron spectrometer (XPS). Electrochemical workstation, inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometer (ICP-AES), flame atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) and pH meter were employed to detect variations of electrochemical parameter and ions concentration respectively. Results indicate that the fast formation of calcium phosphates is closely related to the SiOx(n-) groups, which induce the heterogeneous nucleation of amorphous hydroxyapatite (HA) by sorption of calcium and phosphate ions. PMID:25174544

  1. Precipitation processes developed during TOGA COARE (1992), GATE (1974), SCSMEX (1998), and KWAJEX (1999): 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.-K.

    2006-01-01

    Real clouds and cloud systems are inherently three-dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud systems with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NOAA GFDL, the U.K. Met. Office, Colorado State University and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. An improved 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was recently used to simulate periods during TOGA COARE (December 19-27, 1992), GATE (september 1-7, 1974), SCSMEX (May 18-26, June 2-11, 1998) and KWAJEX (August 7-13, August 18-21, and August 29-September 12, 1999) using a 512 by 512 km domain and 41 vertical layers. The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the differences and similarities in the simulated precipitation processes and their associated surface and water energy budgets in TOGA COARE, GATE, KWAJEX, and SCSMEX, and (2) to asses the impact of microphysics, radiation budget and surface fluxes on the organization of convection in tropics.

  2. Synthesis and properties of ternary (K, NH₄, H₃O)-jarosites precipitated from Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans cultures in simulated bioleaching solutions.

    PubMed

    Jones, F Sandy; Bigham, Jerry M; Gramp, Jonathan P; Tuovinen, Olli H

    2014-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to synthesize a series of solid solution jarosites by biological oxidation of ferrous iron at pH2.2-4.4 and ambient temperature in media containing mixtures of K(+) (0, 1, 4, 6, 12, 31 mM) and NH4(+) (6.1, 80, 160, 320 mM). The starting material was a liquid medium for Acidithiobacillus ferrooxidans comprised of 120 mM FeSO4 solution and mineral salts at pH2.2. Following inoculation with A. ferrooxidans, the cultures were incubated in shake flasks at 22°C. As bacteria oxidized ferrous iron, ferric iron hydrolyzed and precipitated as jarosite-group minerals (AFe3(SO4)2(OH)6) and/or schwertmannite (idealized formula Fe8O8(OH)6(SO4)·nH2O). The precipitates were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), elemental analysis, and Munsell color. Schwertmannite was the dominant mineral product at low combinations of K(+) (≤ 4 mM) and NH4(+) (≤ 80 mM) in the media. At higher single or combined concentrations, yellowish jarosite phases were produced, and Munsell hue provided a sensitive means of detecting minor schwertmannite in the oxidation products. Although the hydrated ionic radii of K(+) and NH4(+) are similar, K(+) greatly facilitated the formation of a jarosite phase compared to NH4(+). Unit cell and cell volume calculations from refinements of the powder XRD patterns indicated that the jarosite phases produced were mostly ternary (K, NH4, H3O)-solid solutions that were also deficient in structural Fe, especially at low NH4 contents. Thus, ferric iron precipitation from the simulated bioleaching systems yielded solid solutions of jarosite with chemical compositions that were dependent on the relative concentrations of K(+) and NH4(+) in the synthesis media. No phase separations involving discrete, end-member K-jarosite or NH4-jarosite were detected in the un-aged precipitates.

  3. Simultaneous inhibition of carbon and nitrogen mineralization in a forest soil by simulated acid precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Klein, T.M.; Novick, N.J.; Kreitinger, J.P.; Alexander, M.

    1984-06-01

    One method to simulate the long-term exposure of soil to acid rain involves the addition of single doses of concentrated acid. The inhibition of carbon mineralization accompanied by a stimulation of nitrogen mineralization may result from this severe, unnatural treatment. The present study was designed to determine whether the inhibition of carbon mineralization and the accompanying enhanced nitrogen mineralization would occur when soils are treated with more dilute acid for long periods of time, as takes place in nature.

  4. The prestige oil spill. I. Biodegradation of a heavy fuel oil under simulated conditions.

    PubMed

    Díez, Sergi; Sabatté, Jordi; Viñas, Marc; Bayona, Josep M; Solanas, Anna M; Albaigés, Joan

    2005-09-01

    In vitro biodegradation of the Prestige heavy fuel oil has been carried out using two microbial consortia obtained by enrichment in different substrates to simulate its environmental fate and potential utility for bioremediation. Different conditions, such as incubation time (i.e., 20 or 40 d), oil weathering, and addition of an oleophilic fertilizer (S200), were evaluated. Weathering slowed down the degradation of the fuel oil, probably because of the loss of lower and more labile components, but the addition of S200 enhanced significantly the extension of the biodegradation. n-Alkanes, alkylcyclohexanes, alkylbenzenes, and the two- to three-ring polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were degraded in 20 or 40 d of incubation of the original oil, whereas the biodegradation efficiency decreased for higher PAHs and with the increase of alkylation. Molecular markers were degraded according to the following sequence: Acyclic isoprenoids > diasteranes > C27-steranes > betabeta-steranes > homohopanes > monoaromatic steranes > triaromatic steranes. Isomeric selectivity was observed within the C1- and C2-phenanthrenes, dibenzothiophenes, pyrenes, and chrysenes, providing source and weathering indices for the characterization of the heavy oil spill. Acyclic isoprenoids, C27-steranes, C1- and C2-naphthalenes, phenanthrenes, and dibenzothiophenes were degraded completely when S200 was used. The ratios of the C2- and C3-alkyl homologues of fluoranthene/pyrene and chrysene/benzo[a]anthracene are proposed as source ratios in moderately degraded oils. The 4-methylpyrene and 3-methylchrysene were refractory enough to serve as conserved internal markers in assessing the degradation of the aromatic fraction in a manner similar to that of hopane, as used for the aliphatic fraction.

  5. Effects of Precipitation on Ocean Mixed-Layer Temperature and Salinity as Simulated in a 2-D Coupled Ocean-Cloud Resolving Atmosphere Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K-M.; Adamec, D.

    1999-01-01

    A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

  6. The effects of a simulated acid precipitation on leaf litter quality and the growth of a detritivore in a buffered lotic system.

    PubMed

    Garden, A; Davies, R W

    1988-01-01

    The effects of a simulated acid rain on leaf litter quality and the growth of a detritivore in a buffered lotic system were investigated. Exposure of Populus balsamifera L. saplings to a simulated acid precipitation prior to leaf abscission resulted in significant decreases in foliar nitrogen content and increases in carbon: nitrogen ratios. During decomposition of the leaf litter in a buffered lotic system, microbial activity was significantly reduced. Growth of Tipula commiscibilis Diane (Diptera: Tipulidae) larvae decreased significantly when fed conditioned leaves exposed to a simulated acid precipitation prior to abscission. Reductions in detritivore growth were correlated with lower potential quality of the leaf litter resulting from increased carbon: nitrogen ratios and reduced levels of microbial activity. Thus, even in well buffered freshwater ecosystems, acid precipitation can have significant indirect effects on microbial activity and macroinvertebrate growth.

  7. The effects of a simulated acid precipitation on leaf litter quality and the growth of a detritivore in a buffered lotic system.

    PubMed

    Garden, A; Davies, R W

    1988-01-01

    The effects of a simulated acid rain on leaf litter quality and the growth of a detritivore in a buffered lotic system were investigated. Exposure of Populus balsamifera L. saplings to a simulated acid precipitation prior to leaf abscission resulted in significant decreases in foliar nitrogen content and increases in carbon: nitrogen ratios. During decomposition of the leaf litter in a buffered lotic system, microbial activity was significantly reduced. Growth of Tipula commiscibilis Diane (Diptera: Tipulidae) larvae decreased significantly when fed conditioned leaves exposed to a simulated acid precipitation prior to abscission. Reductions in detritivore growth were correlated with lower potential quality of the leaf litter resulting from increased carbon: nitrogen ratios and reduced levels of microbial activity. Thus, even in well buffered freshwater ecosystems, acid precipitation can have significant indirect effects on microbial activity and macroinvertebrate growth. PMID:15092603

  8. Space-time conditional disaggregation of precipitation at high resolution via simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bárdossy, András.; Pegram, Geoffrey G. S.

    2016-02-01

    Daily rainfall data are more plentiful and reliable than pluviometer data and are the best data set to start data-repair from, worldwide. Clusters of pluviometers (a term used herein for instruments recording at subdaily intervals) record wet and dry periods in close synchrony and larger and smaller catches tend to be recorded in similar groups, but they have many gaps that require infilling. We present a method of disaggregating daily rainfall to subdaily intervals, contemporaneously infilling gaps in the pluviometers. Then the observed data, together with the infilled and disaggregated values, are interpolated over the intervening space. To achieve this disaggregation, we used a Gaussian copula-based model with time-dependent marginal distributions and censored values representing the dry periods. In addition, we generated stochastically meaningful ensembles of missing or disaggregated values, while constraining each realization to the observed daily total where relevant. This applies to the gaps filled in the pluviometers as well as the disaggregation of the daily totals. Using the disaggregated and infilled subdaily ensembles, we then conditionally spatially simulated historical rainfall in the space between the gauges and pluviometers. The mean of these stochastic realizations was compared to interpolated fields using two other procedures: Rescaled Ordinary Kriging and Rescaled Nearest Neighbors, and found our method to be superior. Where there are daily data, the daily sum constrains the simulation. In the intervening space, in a chosen daily subinterval, there will be an ensemble of values simulated from the observations. We present the results of measurements and validation of the applications to an unusually large amount of data (not just a few convenient samples), and are confident that the methodology is sound and applicable in a variety of geographies.

  9. The Origin of Systematic Errors in the GCM Simulation of ITCZ Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Suarez, M. J.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Chen, B.; Takacs, L. L.

    2006-01-01

    Previous GCM studies have found that the systematic errors in the GCM simulation of the seasonal mean ITCZ intensity and location could be substantially corrected by adding suitable amount of rain re-evaporation or cumulus momentum transport. However, the reason(s) for these systematic errors and solutions has remained a puzzle. In this work the knowledge gained from previous studies of the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with zonally uniform SST is applied to solve this puzzle. The solution is supported by further aqua-planet and full model experiments using the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System GCM.

  10. Integration of seismic methods with reservoir simulation, Pikes Peak heavy oil field, Saskatchewan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zou, Ying

    The Pikes Peak heavy oil field has been operated by Husky Energy Ltd since 1981. Steam injection has been successfully employed to increase production. Efforts in geophysics and reservoir engineering have been made to improve interpretations in the mapping of reservoir conditions. This dissertation developed tools and a working flow for integrating the analysis of time-lapse seismic surveys with reservoir simulation, and applied them to the Pikes Peak field. Two time-lapse 2D seismic lines acquired in February 1991 and March 2000 in the eastern part of the field were carefully processed to produce wavelet and structure matched final sections. Reservoir simulation based on the field reservoir production history was carried out. It provided independent complementary information for the time-lapse seismic analysis. A rock physics procedure based on Gassmann's equation and Batzle and Wang's empirical relationship successfully linked the reservoir engineering to the seismic method. Based on the resultant seismic models, synthetic seismic sections were generated as the analogy of field seismic sections. The integrated interpretation for the Pikes Peak reservoir drew the following conclusions: The areas with a gas saturation difference, between two compared time steps, have seismic differences. Thicker gas zones correspond with large reflectivity changes on the top of the reservoir and larger traveltime delays in the seismic section. The thin gas zones only induce large reflectivity changes on the top of the reservoir, and do not have large time delays below the reservoir zone. High temperature regions also correlate with areas having large seismic energy differences. High temperature with thick gas (steam and methane) zones may be evidence for steam existence. The seismic differences at locations far from the production zone are due to the lower pressure that causes solution gas to evolve from the oil. Pressure changes propagate much faster (˜20 m in one month) than

  11. The role of land surface processes on the mesoscale simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Hsin-I.; Kumar, Anil; Niyogi, Dev; Mohanty, U. C.; Chen, Fei; Dudhia, Jimy

    2009-05-01

    A record-breaking heavy rain event occurred over Mumbai, India on July 26th, 2005 with 24-h rainfall exceeding 944 mm. Operational weather forecast models failed to predict the intensity and amount of heavy rainfall. The objective of this study was to test the impact of the three different land surface models when coupled to the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF), and also to investigate the ability of the WRF model to simulate the Mumbai heavy rain event. Numerical experiments were designed using the WRF model, with three nested domains (30, 10, and 3.3 km grid spacing). Results confirmed that the simulated rainfall is sensitive to the grid spacing (with finer grids leading to higher rainfall). Results also suggest that simulated precipitation amounts are sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization (with Grell-Devenyi cumulus scheme performing relatively best). To reduce the confounding impact of cumulus parameterization in studying the impacts of land surface models, we evaluated results for the 3.3 km grid spacing domain with explicit convection. Simulations were performed from 12Z, July 25th to 00Z, July 27th with identical boundary conditions and model configurations for three different land surface models (the Slab, the Noah, and a modified version with photosynthesis module—the Noah-GEM). The model results were compared with observed rainfall, surface temperature, and operational soundings over three locations: Mumbai, Bangalore and Bhopal. Model results showed that: (i) The simulated rainfall was sensitive to the chosen land surface model. The rainfall spatial distributions, as well as their temporal characteristics, were different for each of the three WRF runs with different LSMs. (ii) In contrast to the findings over mid-latitudes, the relatively simpler Slab model had a relatively better performance than the modestly complex Noah and Noah-GEM LSMs. For example, the highest observed rainfall over Mumbai was 944 mm and the simulated amounts for

  12. Removal of a hazardous heavy metal from aqueous solution using functionalized graphene and boron nitride nanosheets: Insights from simulations.

    PubMed

    Azamat, Jafar; Sattary, Batoul Shirforush; Khataee, Alireza; Joo, Sang Woo

    2015-09-01

    A computer simulation was performed to investigate the removal of Zn(2+) as a heavy metal from aqueous solution using the functionalized pore of a graphene nanosheet and boron nitride nanosheet (BNNS). The simulated systems were comprised of a graphene nanosheet or BNNS with a functionalized pore containing an aqueous ionic solution of zinc chloride. In order to remove heavy metal from an aqueous solution using the functionalized pore of a graphene nanosheet and BNNS, an external voltage was applied along the z-axis of the simulated box. For the selective removal of zinc ions, the pores of graphene and BNNS were functionalized by passivating each atom at the pore edge with appropriate atoms. For complete analysis systems, we calculated the potential of the mean force of ions, the radial distribution function of ion-water, the residence time of ions, the hydrogen bond, and the autocorrelation function of the hydrogen bond. PMID:26186492

  13. Removal of a hazardous heavy metal from aqueous solution using functionalized graphene and boron nitride nanosheets: Insights from simulations.

    PubMed

    Azamat, Jafar; Sattary, Batoul Shirforush; Khataee, Alireza; Joo, Sang Woo

    2015-09-01

    A computer simulation was performed to investigate the removal of Zn(2+) as a heavy metal from aqueous solution using the functionalized pore of a graphene nanosheet and boron nitride nanosheet (BNNS). The simulated systems were comprised of a graphene nanosheet or BNNS with a functionalized pore containing an aqueous ionic solution of zinc chloride. In order to remove heavy metal from an aqueous solution using the functionalized pore of a graphene nanosheet and BNNS, an external voltage was applied along the z-axis of the simulated box. For the selective removal of zinc ions, the pores of graphene and BNNS were functionalized by passivating each atom at the pore edge with appropriate atoms. For complete analysis systems, we calculated the potential of the mean force of ions, the radial distribution function of ion-water, the residence time of ions, the hydrogen bond, and the autocorrelation function of the hydrogen bond.

  14. The Origin of Systematic Errors in the GCM Simulation of ITCZ Precipitation over Oceans

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chao, Winston C.; Suarez, Max J.; Bacmeister, Julio T.; Chen, Baode; Takacs, Lawrence L.

    2006-01-01

    This study provides explanations for some of the experimental findings of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001) concerning the mechanisms responsible for the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model. These explanations are then applied to explain the origin of some of the systematic errors in the GCM simulation of ITCZ precipitatin over oceans. The ITCZ systematic errors are highly sensitive to model physics and by extension model horizontal resolution. The findings in this study along with those of Chao (2000) and Chao and Chen (2001, 2004) contribute to building a theoretical foundation for ITCZ study. A few possible methods of alleviating the systematic errors in the GCM simulaiton of ITCZ are discussed. This study uses a recent version of the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) GCM.

  15. Influence of spatial resolution on precipitation simulations for the central Andes Mountains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trachte, Katja; Bendix, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The climate of South America is highly influenced by the north-south oriented Andes Mountains. Their complex structure causes modifications of large-scale atmospheric circulations resulting in various mesoscale phenomena as well as a high variability in the local conditions. Due to their height and length the terrain generates distinctly climate conditions between the western and the eastern slopes. While in the tropical regions along the western flanks the conditions are cold and arid, the eastern slopes are dominated by warm-moist and rainy air coming from the Amazon basin. Below 35° S the situation reverses with rather semiarid conditions in the eastern part and temperate rainy climate along southern Chile. Generally, global circulation models (GCMs) describe the state of the global climate and its changes, but are disabled to capture regional or even local features due to their coarse resolution. This is particularly true in heterogeneous regions such as the Andes Mountains, where local driving features, e. g. local circulation systems, highly varies on small scales and thus, lead to a high variability of rainfall distributions. An appropriate technique to overcome this problem and to gain regional and local scale rainfall information is the dynamical downscaling of the global data using a regional climate model (RCM). The poster presents results of the evaluation of the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over South America with special focus on the central Andes Mountains of Ecuador. A sensitivity study regarding the cumulus parametrization, microphysics, boundary layer processes and the radiation budget is conducted. With 17 simulations consisting of 16 parametrization scheme combinations and 1 default run a suitable model set-up for climate research in this region is supposed to be evaluated. The simulations were conducted in a two-way nested mode i) to examine the best physics scheme combination for the target and ii) to

  16. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  17. Simulated polarization diversity lidar returns from water and precipitating mixed phase clouds.

    PubMed

    Sassen, K; Zhao, H; Dodd, G C

    1992-05-20

    The dependence of polarization lidar returns on basic microphysical and thermodynamic variables is assessed by using a cloud model to simulate the growth of water and mixed (water and ice) phase clouds. Cloud contents that evolve with height in updrafts are converted, by using Mie theory, into cloud droplet single and double backscattering and attenuation coefficients. The lidar equation includes forward multiple scattering attenuation corrections based on diffraction theory for droplets and ice crystals, whose relative scattering contributions are treated empirically. Lidar depolarization is computed from droplet and crystal single scattering and an analytical treatment of droplet double scattering. Water cloud results reveal the expected increases in linear depolarization ratios (delta) with increasing lidar field of view and distance to cloud but also show that depolarization is a function of cloud liquid water content, which depends primarily on temperature. Ice crystals modulate mixed phase cloud liquid water contents through water vapor competition effects, thereby affecting multiple scattering delta values as functions of updraft velocity, temperature, and crystal size and concentration. Although the minimum delta at cloud base increases with increasing ice content, the peak measurable delta in the cloud decreases. Comparison with field data demonstrate that this modeling approach is a valuable supplement to cloud measurements.

  18. Simulated polarization diversity lidar returns from water and precipitating mixed phase clouds.

    PubMed

    Sassen, K; Zhao, H; Dodd, G C

    1992-05-20

    The dependence of polarization lidar returns on basic microphysical and thermodynamic variables is assessed by using a cloud model to simulate the growth of water and mixed (water and ice) phase clouds. Cloud contents that evolve with height in updrafts are converted, by using Mie theory, into cloud droplet single and double backscattering and attenuation coefficients. The lidar equation includes forward multiple scattering attenuation corrections based on diffraction theory for droplets and ice crystals, whose relative scattering contributions are treated empirically. Lidar depolarization is computed from droplet and crystal single scattering and an analytical treatment of droplet double scattering. Water cloud results reveal the expected increases in linear depolarization ratios (delta) with increasing lidar field of view and distance to cloud but also show that depolarization is a function of cloud liquid water content, which depends primarily on temperature. Ice crystals modulate mixed phase cloud liquid water contents through water vapor competition effects, thereby affecting multiple scattering delta values as functions of updraft velocity, temperature, and crystal size and concentration. Although the minimum delta at cloud base increases with increasing ice content, the peak measurable delta in the cloud decreases. Comparison with field data demonstrate that this modeling approach is a valuable supplement to cloud measurements. PMID:20725225

  19. Simulation of the influence of EDTA on the sorption of heavy metals by humic acids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kropacheva, T. N.; Didik, M. V.; Kornev, V. I.

    2015-04-01

    The results of mathematical simulation of sorption equilibria with the participation of divalent cations of heavy metals (HMs), chelant (EDTA), and insoluble forms of humic acids (HAs) are discussed. It is shown that the formation of chelates of metals with EDTA in solutions results in the decreasing sorption of the metals by humic acids. We also analyzed the effect of the acidity of the medium and the HM: EDTA: HA ratio (in a wide range) on the desorption of metals. The desorbing effect of EDTA on the metals is the highest at pH 3-5 and increases with an increase in the concentration of EDTA and a decrease in the concentration of HAs. With respect to the remobilization of metals under the impact of EDTA, the metal cations can be arranged into the following sequence: Cu(II) > Ni(II) > Pb(II) ≫ Cd(II) > Co(II) > Zn(II). The obtained data have been used to analyze the remobilization / extraction of HMs from soils with a high content of humic substances.

  20. The impact of assimilating radar-estimated rain rates on simulation of precipitation in the 17-18 July 1996 Chicago floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xingbao; Yau, M. K.; Nagarajan, B.; Fillion, Luc

    2010-03-01

    Rainfall prediction remains one of the most challenging problems in weather forecasting. In order to improve high-resolution quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), a new procedure for assimilating rainfall rate derived from radar composite reflectivity has been proposed and tested in a numerical simulation of the Chicago floods of 17-18 July 1996. The methodology is based on the one-dimensional variation scheme (1DVAR) assimilation approach introduced by Fillion and Errico but applied here using the Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme (KF CPS). The novel feature of this work is the continuous assimilation of radar estimated rain rate over a three hour period, rather than a single assimilation at the initial (analysis) time. Most of the characteristics of this precipitation event, including the propagation, regeneration of mesoscale convective systems, the frontal boundary across the Midwest and the evolution of the low-level jet are better captured in the simulation as the radar-estimated precipitation rate is assimilated. The results indicate that precipitation assimilation during the early stage can improve the simulated mesoscale feature of the convection system and shorten the spin-up time significantly. Comparison of precipitation forecasts between the experiments with and without the 1DVAR indicates that the 1DVAR scheme has a positive impact on the QPF up to 36 hours in terms of the bias and bias equalized threat scores.

  1. Leaching of heavy metals from E-waste in simulated landfill columns

    SciTech Connect

    Li Yadong Richardson, Jay B.; Mark Bricka, R.; Niu Xiaojun; Yang, Hongbin; Li Lin; Jimenez, Arturo

    2009-07-15

    In recent history the volume of electronic products purchased by consumers has dramatically escalated. As a result this has produced an ever-increasing electronic waste (E-waste) stream, which has generated concerns regarding the E-waste's potential for adversely impacting the environment. The leaching of toxic substances from obsolete personal computers (PCs) and cathode ray tubes (CRTs) of televisions and monitors, which are the most significant components in E-waste stream, was studied using landfill simulation in columns. Five columns were employed. One column served as a control which was filled with municipal solid waste (MSW), two columns were filled with a mixture of MSW and CRTs, and the other two were filled with MSW and computer components including printed wire boards, hard disc drives, floppy disc drives, CD/DVD drives, and power supply units. The leachate generated from the columns was monitored for toxic materials throughout the two-year duration of the study. Results indicate that lead (Pb) and various other heavy metals that were of environmental and health concern were not detected in the leachate from the simulators. When the samples of the solids were collected from underneath the E-waste in the columns and were analyzed, significant amount of Pb was detected. This indicates that Pb could readily leach from the E-waste, but was absorbed by the solids around the E-waste materials. While Pb was not observed in the leachate in this study, it is likely that the Pb would eventually enter the leachate after a long term transport.

  2. Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

    2008-01-01

    Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

  3. Intercomparison of four cloud microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the simulation of summer monsoon precipitation in the Langtang Valley, Himalayas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orr, Andrew; Couttet, Margaux; Collier, Emily; Immerzeel, Walter

    2016-04-01

    Better understanding of regional-scale precipitation patterns in the Himalayan region, and how these are affecting snow and ice, is critically required to increase our knowledge of the impacts of climate change on glaciers and snowpacks. This study examines how 4 different cloud microphysical schemes (Thompson, Morrison, WRF Single-Moment 5-class (WSM5; which is the WRF default scheme), and WRF Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6)) simulated precipitation in the Langtang Valley, Himalayas during the summer monsoon in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The precipitation is simulated for a ten-day period during July 2012 at high spatial-resolution (1.1 km) so as to simulate the local conditions in great detail. The model results are validated through a comparison with precipitation and radiation measurements made at two observation sites located on the main Langtang Valley floor and the mountain slopes. Analysis of water vapour and hydrometeors from each of the 4 schemes are also investigated to elucidate the main microphysics processes. The results show that the choice of microphysics scheme has a strong influence on precipitation in the Langtang Valley, with the simulated precipitation exhibiting large inter-model differences and significantly different day-to-day variability compared to measurements. The inter-model differences in simulated radiation were less marked, although under cloudy conditions all schemes demonstrated a significant positive bias in incoming radiation. However, overall the Morrison scheme showed the best agreement in terms of both precipitation and radiation over the ten-day period, while the poorest performing scheme is WDM6. Analysis of microphysics outputs suggested that 'cold-rain processes' is a key precipitation formation mechanism. The good performance of the Morrison scheme is consistent with its double-moment prediction of every ice-phase hydrometeor, which is ideally suited to represent this mechanism. By contrast, WDM6 is

  4. Mesh refinement for particle-in-cell plasma simulations: Applications to - and benefits for - heavy ion fusion

    SciTech Connect

    Vay, J.L.; Colella, P.; McCorquodale, P.; Van Straalen, B.; Friedman, A.; Grote, D.P.

    2002-05-24

    The numerical simulation of the driving beams in a heavy ion fusion power plant is a challenging task, and simulation of the power plant as a whole, or even of the driver, is not yet possible. Despite the rapid progress in computer power, past and anticipated, one must consider the use of the most advanced numerical techniques, if they are to reach the goal expeditiously. One of the difficulties of these simulations resides in the disparity of scales, in time and in space, which must be resolved. When these disparities are in distinctive zones of the simulation region, a method which has proven to be effective in other areas (e.g., fluid dynamics simulations) is the mesh refinement technique. They discuss the challenges posed by the implementation of this technique into plasma simulations (due to the presence of particles and electromagnetic waves). They present the prospects for and projected benefits of its application to heavy ion fusion, in particular to the simulation of the ion source and the final beam propagation in the chamber. A Collaboration project is under way at LBNL between the Applied Numerical Algorithms Group (ANAG) and the HIF group to couple the Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) library CHOMBO developed by the ANAG group to the Particle-In-Cell accelerator code (WARP) developed by the HIF-VNL. They describe their progress and present their initial findings.

  5. Is the global atmospheric model MRI-AGCM3.2 better than the CMIP5 atmospheric models in simulating precipitation over East Asia?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusunoki, Shoji

    2016-09-01

    The reproducibility of precipitation over East Asia (110-150°E, 20-50°N) by the Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 3.2 (MRI-AGCM3.2) was investigated and compared with those by global atmospheric models participated in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The 20, 60 and 180-km grid size version of this model were used to evaluate the dependence of model performance on horizontal resolution. The dependence of cumulus convection scheme on model performance was also investigated. All the MRI-AGCM3.2 models and the CMIP5 models were forced with observed historical sea surface temperatures for the period 1979-2003 (25 years). The reproducibility of the MRI-AGCM3.2 models is higher or comparable to that of the CMIP5 models for seasonal average precipitation, the seasonal March of rainy zone and extreme precipitation events. Especially in summer, the advantage of the MRI-AGCM3.2 models over the CMIP5 models is striking in terms of various skill measures. This is partly due to the higher horizontal resolution of the MRI-AGCM3.2 models, but the performance of models is also sensitive to and depends on cumulus convection scheme. The better simulation of summer precipitation over East Asia by the MRI-AGCM3.2 models can be partly attributed to the better simulation of precipitation, the West Pacific Subtropical High and the local Hadley circulation in the tropics. This study highlights that higher reproducibility of summertime precipitation over East Asia requires proper simulation not only for tropical circulation but also for the strong dynamical linkage between precipitation over East Asia and tropical circulation.

  6. Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 2 ; Precipitation Microphysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Varble, Adam; Zipser, Edward J.; Fridland, Ann M.; Zhu, Ping; Ackerman, Andrew S.; Chaboureau, Jean-Pierre; Fan, Jiwen; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Williams, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Ten 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3-D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, colocated UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rainwater contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (mu) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes but lower RWCs. Two-moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and, thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision-coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a mu of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing mu to have values greater than 0 may improve excessive size sorting in two-moment schemes. Underpredicted stratiform rain rates are associated with underpredicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. A limited domain size also prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region like the one observed from developing in CRMs, although LAMs also fail to produce such a region.

  7. Influences of Local Sea-Surface Temperatures and Large-scale Dynamics on Monthly Precipitation Inferred from Two 10-year GCM-Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Zhou, Y.; Lau, W. K.-M.

    2007-01-01

    Two parallel sets of 10-year long: January 1, 1982 to December 31, 1991, simulations were made with the finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM) in which the model integrations were forced with prescribed sea-surface temperature fields (SSTs) available as two separate SST-datasets. One dataset contained naturally varying monthly SSTs for the chosen period, and the oth& had the 12-monthly mean SSTs for the same period. Plots of evaporation, precipitation, and atmosphere-column moisture convergence, binned by l C SST intervals show that except for the tropics, the precipitation is more strongly constrained by large-scale dynamics as opposed to local SST. Binning data by SST naturally provided an ensemble average of data contributed from disparate locations with same SST; such averages could be expected to mitigate all location related influences. However, the plots revealed: i) evaporation, vertical velocity, and precipitation are very robust and remarkably similar for each of the two simulations and even for the data from 1987-ENSO-year simulation; ii) while the evaporation increased monotonically with SST up to about 27 C, the precipitation did not; iii) precipitation correlated much better with the column vertical velocity as opposed to SST suggesting that the influence of dynamical circulation including non-local SSTs is stronger than local-SSTs. The precipitation fields were doubly binned with respect to SST and boundary-layer mass and/or moisture convergence. The analysis discerned the rate of change of precipitation with local SST as a sum of partial derivative of precipitation with local SST plus partial derivative of precipitation with boundary layer moisture convergence multiplied by the rate of change of boundary-layer moisture convergence with SST (see Eqn. 3 of Section 4.5). This analysis is mathematically rigorous as well as provides a quantitative measure of the influence of local SST on the local precipitation. The results were recast to

  8. An investigation of the existence of a surface water layer on aircraft radomes during simulated flight in heavy precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Branstetter, J. R.; Bailey, M. C.; Hearn, C. P.; Dunham, R. E., Jr.; Couch, R. H.; Verstynen, H. A.; Gentry, L., Jr.; Williams, J. B.

    1984-01-01

    An experiment to investigate the electromagnetic attenuation effects of an impacting water spray on an aircraft weather radome was conducted in Langley's 4 X 7 m. wind tunnel equipped with a water spray system. Results indicate no significant liquid water film formed at the stagnation point of the radome under the test conditions. However, a water sheath was observed standing away from the radome surface, which could possibly have significant attenuation properties of its own. Due to the lack of fidelity in modeling both the natural environment with the tunnel apparatus and the water sheath, it is recommended that further studies be undertaken to better define the water distribution in the vicinity of the radome and measure its effect on weather radar performance.

  9. Precipitation intercomparison of a set of satellite- and raingauge-derived datasets, ERA Interim reanalysis, and a single WRF regional climate simulation over Europe and the North Atlantic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skok, Gregor; Žagar, Nedjeljka; Honzak, Luka; Žabkar, Rahela; Rakovec, Jože; Ceglar, Andrej

    2016-01-01

    The study presents a precipitation intercomparison based on two satellite-derived datasets (TRMM 3B42, CMORPH), four raingauge-based datasets (GPCC, E-OBS, Willmott & Matsuura, CRU), ERA Interim reanalysis (ERAInt), and a single climate simulation using the WRF model. The comparison was performed for a domain encompassing parts of Europe and the North Atlantic over the 11-year period of 2000-2010. The four raingauge-based datasets are similar to the TRMM dataset with biases over Europe ranging from -7 % to +4 %. The spread among the raingauge-based datasets is relatively small over most of Europe, although areas with greater uncertainty (more than 30 %) exist, especially near the Alps and other mountainous regions. There are distinct differences between the datasets over the European land area and the Atlantic Ocean in comparison to the TRMM dataset. ERAInt has a small dry bias over the land; the WRF simulation has a large wet bias (+30 %), whereas CMORPH is characterized by a large and spatially consistent dry bias (-21 %). Over the ocean, both ERAInt and CMORPH have a small wet bias (+8 %) while the wet bias in WRF is significantly larger (+47 %). ERAInt has the highest frequency of low-intensity precipitation while the frequency of high-intensity precipitation is the lowest due to its lower native resolution. Both satellite-derived datasets have more low-intensity precipitation over the ocean than over the land, while the frequency of higher-intensity precipitation is similar or larger over the land. This result is likely related to orography, which triggers more intense convective precipitation, while the Atlantic Ocean is characterized by more homogenous large-scale precipitation systems which are associated with larger areas of lower intensity precipitation. However, this is not observed in ERAInt and WRF, indicating the insufficient representation of convective processes in the models. Finally, the Fraction Skill Score confirmed that both models perform

  10. Precipitation Across India's Ghats Mountains (IMERG)

    NASA Video Gallery

    Animation of precipitation rates across India and surrounding countries. Notice the heavy rains throughout the Ghats Mountain range which resulted in devastating landslides along India's west coast...

  11. Precipitation extremes over Amazonia - atmospheric and oceanic associated features observed and simulated by HADGEM2-ES, CPTEC/INPE AGCM and Eta/CPTEC regional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    Extreme monthly cases of precipitation (positive and negative anomalies) over Amazonia are analyzed to show the atmospheric and oceanic related features and the ability of CPTEC AGCM and HADGEM2-ES in simulating them. Humidity flux variability over the Tropical Atlantic region is analyzed related to the precipitation variability over Amazonia. Besides the Pacific Ocean influence, the Amazonia precipitation is affected by the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, both by the SST and atmospheric flux humidity. Correlations between Atlantic SST and Amazonia precipitation show that there are specific months and areas that are affected by SST anomalies. The extreme cases are obtained from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) applied to monthly data in four areas of Amazonia: northwest, northeast, west and east areas. The period of analysis is 1981 to 2010 to GPCP observed precipitation and CPTEC/INPE AGCM. As this AGCM is the base of the Brazilian Model of Earth System, its behavior on the mechanisms leading to extremes over Amazonia, compared to observations is discussed. Projections of extremes over the region are analyzed with results from CMIP5 HADGEM2-ES during 2073-2099 compared to 1979-2005. The regional Eta CPTEC model is also analyzed in two periods: 1960 to 1990 and 2040 to 2070, with boundary conditions of CMIP3 HADCM3 A1B scenario. The relevance of this analysis is to identify changes in frequency and intensity of extremes in the Amazon region in a higher resolution than the global models.

  12. Impact of horizontal resolution on simulation of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet version of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)

    SciTech Connect

    Li, F.; Collins, W.D.; Wehner, M.F.; Williamson, D.L.; Olson, J.G.; Algieri, C.

    2011-03-01

    One key question regarding current climate models is whether the projection of climate extremes converges to a realistic representation as the spatial and temporal resolutions of the model are increased. Ideally the model extreme statistics should approach a fixed distribution once the resolutions are commensurate with the characteristic length and time scales of the processes governing the formation of the extreme phenomena of interest. In this study, a series of AGCM runs with idealized 'aquaplanet-steady-state' boundary conditions have been performed with the Community Atmosphere Model CAM3 to investigate the effect of horizontal resolution on climate extreme simulations. The use of the aquaplanet framework highlights the roles of model physics and dynamics and removes any apparent convergence in extreme statistics due to better resolution of surface boundary conditions and other external inputs. Assessed at a same large spatial scale, the results show that the horizontal resolution and time step have strong effects on the simulations of precipitation extremes. The horizontal resolution has a much stronger impact on precipitation extremes than on mean precipitation. Updrafts are strongly correlated with extreme precipitation at tropics at all the resolutions, while positive low-tropospheric temperature anomalies are associated with extreme precipitation at mid-latitudes.

  13. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Minchao; Smith, Benjamin; Schurgers, Guy; Lindström, Joe; Rummukainen, Markku; Samuelsson, Patrick

    2013-04-01

    the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical rainforest and reduced precipitation over the Amazon Basin (Cox et al. 2000; Betts et al. 2004; Malhi et al. 2009). Opposite effects are seen in southern Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, positive evapotranspiration feedback enhancing the cover of trees in forest and savannah, mitigating warming and promoting local moisture recycling as rainfall. We reveal that LAI-driven evapotranspiration feedback may reduced rainfall in parts of Africa, vegetation-climate feedbacks may significantly impact the magnitude and character of simulated changes in climate as well as vegetation and ecosystems in future scenario studies of this region. They should be accounted for in future studies of climate change and its impacts on Africa. Keywords: vegetation-climate feedback, regional climate model, evapotranspiration, CORDEX. References: Betts, R.A., Cox, P.M., Collins, M., Harris, P.P., Huntingford, C. & Jones, C.D. 2004. The role of ecosystem-atmosphere interactions in simulated Amazonian precipitation decrease and forest dieback under global climate warming. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 78: 157-175. Cox, P.M., Betts, R.A., Jones, C.D., Spall, S.A. & Totterdell, I.J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408: 184-187. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Wilĺen, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and coauthors. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3:Model description and performance. Tellus 63A, 4

  14. ALUMINUM REMOVAL FROM HANFORD WASTE BY LITHIUM HYDROTALCITE PRECIPITATION - LABORATORY SCALE VALIDATION ON WASTE SIMULANTS TEST REPORT

    SciTech Connect

    SAMS T; HAGERTY K

    2011-01-27

    To reduce the additional sodium hydroxide and ease processing of aluminum bearing sludge, the lithium hydrotalcite (LiHT) process has been invented by AREV A and demonstrated on a laboratory scale to remove alumina and regenerate/recycle sodium hydroxide prior to processing in the WTP. The method uses lithium hydroxide (LiOH) to precipitate sodium aluminate (NaAI(OH){sub 4}) as lithium hydrotalcite (Li{sub 2}CO{sub 3}.4Al(OH){sub 3}.3H{sub 2}O) while generating sodium hydroxide (NaOH). In addition, phosphate substitutes in the reaction to a high degree, also as a filterable solid. The sodium hydroxide enriched leachate is depleted in aluminum and phosphate, and is recycled to double-shell tanks (DSTs) to leach aluminum bearing sludges. This method eliminates importing sodium hydroxide to leach alumina sludge and eliminates a large fraction of the total sludge mass to be treated by the WTP. Plugging of process equipment is reduced by removal of both aluminum and phosphate in the tank wastes. Laboratory tests were conducted to verify the efficacy of the process and confirm the results of previous tests. These tests used both single-shell tank (SST) and DST simulants.

  15. A decision-making approach for delineating sites which are potentially contaminated by heavy metals via joint simulation.

    PubMed

    Lin, Wei-Chih; Lin, Yu-Pin; Wang, Yung-Chieh

    2016-04-01

    This work develops a new approach for delineating sites that are contaminated by multiple soil heavy metals and applies it to a case study. First a number of contaminant sample data are transformed into multiple spatially un-correlated factors using Uniformly Weighted Exhaustive Diagonalization with Gauss iterations (U-WEDGE). Sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) is then used to generate sets of realizations of each resultant factor. These are then transformed into sets of sGs contaminant distribution realizations, which are then used to analyze the local and spatial (global) uncertainties in the distribution and concentration of contaminants via joint simulation. Finally, Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) is used to consider different monitoring and or remediation regimes based on the analysis of contaminant realization spatial uncertainty. In our case study each heavy metal contaminant was considered individually and together with all other heavy metals; as the number of heavy metals considered increased, higher critical proportion values of local probability were chosen to obtain a low global uncertainty (to provide high reliability). Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) yielded the most appropriate critical proportion values which minimized information loss in terms of specific goals. When the false negative rate is set to zero, meaning that it is necessary to monitor all potentially polluted areas, the corresponding false positive rates are at least 63%, 65%, 66%, 68%, 70%, and 78% to yield robustness levels of 0.50, 0.60, 0.70, 0.80, 0.90, and 1.00 respectively. However, when the false negative rate tolerance threshold is raised to 50%, the false positive rate tolerance which yields robustness levels of 0.50, 0.60, 0.70, 0.80, 0.90 and 1.00 drop to 12%, 14%, 15%, 18%, 20%, and 39%. The case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the developed approach at making robust decisions concerning the delineation of sites contaminated by multiple heavy metals.

  16. Computer simulation of the heavy-duty turbo-compounded diesel cycle for studies of engine efficiency and performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Assanis, D. N.; Ekchian, J. A.; Heywood, J. B.; Replogle, K. K.

    1984-01-01

    Reductions in heat loss at appropriate points in the diesel engine which result in substantially increased exhaust enthalpy were shown. The concepts for this increased enthalpy are the turbocharged, turbocompounded diesel engine cycle. A computer simulation of the heavy duty turbocharged turbo-compounded diesel engine system was undertaken. This allows the definition of the tradeoffs which are associated with the introduction of ceramic materials in various parts of the total engine system, and the study of system optimization. The basic assumptions and the mathematical relationships used in the simulation of the model engine are described.

  17. Daily precipitation statistics in a EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble: added value of raw and bias-corrected high-resolution simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanueva, A.; Kotlarski, S.; Herrera, S.; Fernández, J.; Gutiérrez, J. M.; Boberg, F.; Colette, A.; Christensen, O. B.; Goergen, K.; Jacob, D.; Keuler, K.; Nikulin, G.; Teichmann, C.; Vautard, R.

    2016-08-01

    Daily precipitation statistics as simulated by the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble are evaluated over two distinct regions of the European continent, namely the European Alps and Spain. The potential added value of the high-resolution 12 km experiments with respect to their 50 km resolution counterparts is investigated. The statistics considered consist of wet-day intensity and precipitation frequency as a measure of mean precipitation, and three precipitation-derived indicators (90th percentile on wet days—90pWET, contribution of the very wet days to total precipitation—R95pTOT and number of consecutive dry days—CDD). As reference for model evaluation high resolution gridded observational data over continental Spain (Spain011/044) and the Alpine region (EURO4M-APGD) are used. The assessment and comparison of the two resolutions is accomplished not only on their original horizontal grids (approximately 12 and 50 km), but the high-resolution RCMs are additionally regridded onto the coarse 50 km grid by grid cell aggregation for the direct comparison with the low resolution simulations. The direct application of RCMs e.g. in many impact modelling studies is hampered by model biases. Therefore bias correction (BC) techniques are needed at both resolutions to ensure a better agreement between models and observations. In this work, the added value of the high resolution (before and after the bias correction) is assessed and the suitability of these BC methods is also discussed. Three basic BC methods are applied to isolate the effect of biases in mean precipitation, wet-day intensity and wet-day frequency on the derived indicators. Daily precipitation percentiles are strongly affected by biases in the wet-day intensity, whereas the dry spells are better represented when the simulated precipitation frequency is adjusted to the observed one. This confirms that there is no single optimal way to correct for RCM biases, since

  18. Simulated fuel economy and emissions performance during city and interstate driving for a heavy-duty hybrid truck

    SciTech Connect

    Daw, C Stuart; Gao, Zhiming; Smith, David E; LaClair, Tim J; Pihl, Josh A; Edwards, Kevin Dean

    2013-01-01

    We compare simulated fuel economy and emissions for both conventional and hybrid class 8 heavy-duty diesel trucks operating over multiple urban and highway driving cycles. Both light and heavy freight loads were considered, and all simulations included full aftertreatment for NOx and particulate emissions controls. The aftertreatment components included a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC), urea-selective catalytic NOx reduction (SCR), and a catalyzed diesel particulate filter (DPF). Our simulated hybrid powertrain was configured with a pre-transmission parallel drive, with a single electric motor between the clutch and gearbox. A conventional HD truck with equivalent diesel engine and aftertreatment was also simulated for comparison. Our results indicate that hybridization can significantly increase HD fuel economy and improve emissions control in city driving. However, there is less potential hybridization benefit for HD highway driving. A major factor behind the reduced hybridization benefit for highway driving is that there are fewer opportunities to utilize regenerative breaking. Our aftertreatment simulations indicate that opportunities for passive DPF regeneration are much greater for both hybrid and conventional trucks during highway driving due to higher sustained exhaust temperatures. When passive DPF regeneration is extensively utilized, the fuel penalty for particulate control is virtually eliminated, except for the 0.4%-0.9% fuel penalty associated with the slightly higher exhaust backpressure.

  19. Ion Upwelling and Height-Resolved Electrodynamic Response of the Ionosphere to ULF Waves and Precipitation: Comparison Between Simulation and EISCAT Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sydorenko, D.; Rankin, R.

    2013-12-01

    We have developed a comprehensive two-dimensional (meridional) model of coupling between the magnetosphere and ionosphere that covers an altitude range from ~100 km to few thousand km at high latitudes [Sydorenko and Rankin, 2013]. The model describes propagation of inertial scale Alfven waves, including ponderomotive forces, and has a parametric model of energetic electron precipitation; it includes vertical ion flows and chemical reactions between ions and neutrals. Model results are presented that reproduce EISCAT radar observations of electron and ion temperatures, height integrated conductivity, ion densities, and ion flows during a period of ULF activity described in [Lester, Davies, and Yeoman, 2000]. We performed simulations where the precipitation and the Alfven wave perturb the ionosphere simultaneously. By adjusting parameters of the wave and the precipitation we have achieved qualitative, and sometimes even reasonable quantitative agreement between the observations and the simulation. The model results are discussed in the context of new results anticipated from the Canadian small satellite mission ePOP "Enhanced Polar Outflow Probe", scheduled for launch on September 9, 2013. Sydorenko D. and R. Rankin, 'Simulation of O+ upflows created by electron precipitation and Alfvén waves in the ionosphere' submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research, 2013. Lester M., J. A. Davies, and T. K. Yeoman, 'The ionospheric response during an interval of PC5 ULF wave activity', Ann. Geophysicae, v.18, p.257-261 (2000).

  20. P2S--Coupled simulation with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Stream Temperature Network (SNTemp) Models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markstrom, Steven L.

    2012-01-01

    A software program, called P2S, has been developed which couples the daily stream temperature simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature model with the watershed hydrology simulation capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates hydrologic response to various combinations of climate and land use. Stream Network Temperature was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of changes that hydrology and energy have on water temperatures. P2S will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature.

  1. Present and future precipitation variability over the East African region using CORDEX simulations (COSMO-CLM) and its relation with circulation patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souverijns, Niels; Thiery, Wim; Demuzere, Matthias; van Lipzig, Nicole

    2015-04-01

    The East African region is highly dependent on precipitation due to its water-fed agricultural system. On the other hand the region experiences a high interannual variability regarding precipitation amounts during several months. Consequently, there is a strong need to predict how precipitation variability will evolve under climate change in this region. This requires a good understanding of the processes that influence this variability. This study tackles this issue via the use of circulation patterns, shown to strongly influence precipitation over the East African region. Changes in (the frequency of) circulation patterns towards the future are therefore the main drivers of changes in precipitation variability. To investigate this issue a classification of the different circulation patterns over the region was executed for a reference period (1981-2010) on ERA Interim data using the COST733class software. Different algorithms are tested and their performance over the study area is evaluated. This results in a weather atlas concerning the circulation patterns and their corresponding precipitation amounts that are currently present over the region. Furthermore, the classification will be executed on the COSMO-CLM CORDEX-Africa evaluation simulation for the same reference period. The model results are evaluated by comparing them with the classification results of the ERA Interim data and observational datasets. To predict how precipitation variability changes towards the future, a classification is also applied on the whole CORDEX-Africa ensemble for a present (1981-2010) and future period (2071-2100) under RCP 8.5. Comparing both classifications makes it possible to detect differences in the frequencies of circulation patterns and in the circulation patterns themselves. Particular attention is paid to the months that show a high interannual variability in precipitation amounts, since changes here are of most importance for the region. Finally, the different drivers

  2. Trend in frequency of extreme precipitation events over Ontario from ensembles of multiple GCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Ziwang; Qiu, Xin; Liu, Jinliang; Madras, Neal; Wang, Xiaogang; Zhu, Huaiping

    2016-05-01

    As one of the most important extreme weather event types, extreme precipitation events have significant impacts on human and natural environment. This study assesses the projected long term trends in frequency of occurrence of extreme precipitation events represented by heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days, very wet days and extreme wet days over Ontario, based on results of 21 CMIP3 GCM runs. To achieve this goal, first, all model data are linearly interpolated onto 682 grid points (0.45° × 0.45°) in Ontario; Next, biases in model daily precipitation amount are corrected with a local intensity scaling method to make the total wet days and total wet day precipitation from each of the GCMs are consistent with that from the climate forecast system reanalysis data, and then the four indices are estimated for each of the 21 GCM runs for 1968-2000, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. After that, with the assumption that the rate parameter of the Poisson process for the occurrence of extreme precipitation events may vary with time as climate changes, the Poisson regression model which expresses the log rate as a linear function of time is used to detect the trend in frequency of extreme events in the GCMs simulations; Finally, the trends and their uncertainty are estimated. The result shows that in the twenty-first century annual heavy precipitation days, very heavy precipitation days and very wet days and extreme wet days are likely to significantly increase over major parts of Ontario and particularly heavy precipitation days, very wet days are very likely to significantly increase in some sub-regions in eastern Ontario. However, trends of seasonal indices are not significant.

  3. Numerical simulations and theoretical analysis of proposed heavy-ion-matter experiments at the GSI Darmstadt accelerator facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tahir, N. A.; Hoffmann, D. H. H.; Maruhn, J. A.; Lutz, K.-J.; Bock, R.

    1998-12-01

    This paper presents one- and two-dimensional computer simulations of the hydrodynamic response of solid cylindrical targets made of different materials that are irradiated by intense beams of energetic ions. The beam parameters considered in this study correspond to the design parameters of the heavy ion beam that will be produced at the Gesellschaft für Schwerionenforschung (GSI), Darmstadt heavy ion synchrotron facility (SIS) in 1999. A few calculations, however, were also done using the beam parameters that are currently available at the SIS. Different values for specific energy deposition including 1, 10, 50, and 100 kJ/g, respectively, have been considered, whereas a number of different pulse lengths, namely, 10, 50, 100, and 200 ns, have been assumed. Various target materials, for example, solid lead, solid neon, and solid hydrogen, have been used. It is expected that this simulation study will be very helpful in the design of efficient targets for the future experiments at the GSI. These experiments will hopefully provide very useful information about many important basic physics phenomena, such as enhanced energy loss of heavy ions in hot dense plasmas, equation-of state (EOS) of matter under extreme conditions, material opacity and shock wave propagation. Another very interesting experiment with important practical implications that could be done at this facility may be the creation of metallic hydrogen by imploding appropriately designed multilayered targets containing a layer of frozen hydrogen. This paper presents the design of such a target, together with implosion simulations of this target using a hydrodynamic simulation model. These simulations show that it may be possible to compress the frozen hydrogen to achieve the theoretically predicted physical conditions necessary for hydrogen metallization (a density of the order of 1 to 2 g/cm3, a temperature of a few 0.1 eV and a pressure of about 2-5 megabar). In some cases, compression of frozen

  4. Uncertainty assessment of heavy metal soil contamination mapping using spatiotemporal sequential indicator simulation with multi-temporal sampling points.

    PubMed

    Yang, Yong; Christakos, George

    2015-09-01

    Mapping the space-time distribution of heavy metals in soils plays a key role in contaminated site classification under conditions of in situ uncertainty, whereas uncertainty assessment is based on the quantification of the specific uncertainties in terms of exceedance probabilities. Geostatistical space-time kriging (STK) is increasingly used to estimate pollutant concentrations in soils. Sequential indicator simulation (SIS) technique is popular in uncertainty assessment of heavy metal contamination of soils. However, these techniques cannot handle multi-temporal data. In this work, spatiotemporal sequential indicator simulation (STSIS) based on an additive space-time semivariogram model (STSIS_A) and on a non-separable space-time semivariogram model (STSIS_NS) was used to assimilate multi-temporal data in the mapping and uncertainty assessment of heavy metal distributions in contaminated soils. Cu concentrations in soils sampled during the period 2010-2014 in the Qingshan district (Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China) were used as the experimental data set. Based on a number of STSIS realizations, we assessed different kinds of mapping uncertainty, including single-location uncertainty during 1 year and during multiple years, multi-location uncertainty during 1 year, and during multiple years. The comparison of the STSIS technique vs. SIS and STK techniques showed that STSIS performs better than both STK and SIS.

  5. Precipitation and runoff simulations of select perennial and ephemeral watersheds in the middle Carson River basin, Eagle, Dayton, and Churchill Valleys, west-central Nevada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jeton, Anne E.; Maurer, Douglas K.

    2011-01-01

    The effect that land use may have on streamflow in the Carson River, and ultimately its impact on downstream users can be evaluated by simulating precipitation-runoff processes and estimating groundwater inflow in the middle Carson River in west-central Nevada. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, began a study in 2008 to evaluate groundwater flow in the Carson River basin extending from Eagle Valley to Churchill Valley, called the middle Carson River basin in this report. This report documents the development and calibration of 12 watershed models and presents model results and the estimated mean annual water budgets for the modeled watersheds. This part of the larger middle Carson River study will provide estimates of runoff tributary to the Carson River and the potential for groundwater inflow (defined here as that component of recharge derived from percolation of excess water from the soil zone to the groundwater reservoir). The model used for the study was the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a physically based, distributed-parameter model designed to simulate precipitation and snowmelt runoff as well as snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. Models were developed for 2 perennial watersheds in Eagle Valley having gaged daily mean runoff, Ash Canyon Creek and Clear Creek, and for 10 ephemeral watersheds in the Dayton Valley and Churchill Valley hydrologic areas. Model calibration was constrained by daily mean runoff for the 2 perennial watersheds and for the 10 ephemeral watersheds by limited indirect runoff estimates and by mean annual runoff estimates derived from empirical methods. The models were further constrained by limited climate data adjusted for altitude differences using annual precipitation volumes estimated in a previous study. The calibration periods were water years 1980-2007 for Ash Canyon Creek, and water years 1991-2007 for Clear Creek. To

  6. Three-Dimensional Phase-Field Simulation and Experimental Validation of β-Mg17Al12 Phase Precipitation in Mg-Al-Based Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Guomin; Han, Zhiqiang; Luo, Alan A.; Liu, Baicheng

    2015-02-01

    A three-dimensional (3D) phase-field model has been developed to simulate the formation of lath-shaped β-Mg17Al12 phase during hcp→bcc transformation in Mg-Al-based alloys. The model considers the synergistic effects of the elastic strain energy associated with the lattice rearrangements that accompany the phase transformation, and the interface anisotropy (both in interfacial energy and interface mobility coefficient). By using the proposed model, the essential features of 3D morphology of the β phase precipitate have been successfully predicted and experimentally validated using high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of anisotropic elastic interaction field around a pre-existing β precipitate has been quantitatively determined using 3D phase-field simulation, and the effects of the anisotropic elastic interaction energy on subsequent nucleation of β phase near a pre-existing precipitate have been revealed. The results suggest that the anisotropic elastic interaction energy can promote the formation of new nucleus near the lozenge ends of the pre-existing precipitate, as explicitly substantiated by the experimental observations. The influence of different combinations of interface anisotropy and elastic strain energy on the thickness of β phase precipitate has been elucidated. The correlation between microstructural design during precipitation and the alloy-strengthening mechanisms has also been discussed in terms of dislocation motion. Based on these results, possible strategies for strengthening Mg-Al-based alloys are proposed for magnesium alloy development and microstructural design.

  7. Dynamic earthquake sequence simulations with fault constitutive law accounting for brittle-plastic transition and pressure solution-precipitation creep

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noda, Hiroyuki; Shimamoto, Toshihiko

    2015-04-01

    Fault mechanical behavior is presumably dictated by a pressure-sensitive friction law in the brittle regime where cataclastic deformation dominates, and by a pressure-insensitive flow law in the plastic regime where milonytes are generated. A fault constitutive law in the transitional regime is of great importance in considering earthquake cycles as evidenced by field observations of repeating brittle and ductile deformations [e.g., Sibson 1980]. Shimamoto and Noda [2014] proposed an empirical method of connecting the friction law and the flow law without introducing a new parameter, and demonstrated 2-D dynamic earthquake sequence simulations for a strike-slip fault [e.g., Lapusta et al., 2000] with the friction-to-flow law. A logarithmic rate- and state-dependent friction law (aging law) and a rate- and state-dependent flow law (power law) [Noda and Shimamoto, 2010] with a quartzite steady-state flow law (power exponent n = 4) [Hirth et al., 2001] were adopted for the friction law and the flow law, respectively. Our numerical models are realization of conceptual fault models [e.g., Scholz, 1988]. "Christmas tree" stress profiles appear as a result of evolution of the system, and fluctuate with time. During the interseismic periods, creep fronts penetrated into the locked depth, slow slip events were generated, and then nucleation of dynamic rupture took place either in the shallower or deeper creeping region. The dynamic ruptures spanned the locked depth, reaching the ground surface and extending downwards even deeper than the depth of maximum pre-stress where the deformation mode was in the transitional regime preseismically where S-C mylonitic texture was expected [Shimamoto, 1989]. The coseismic deformation was in the frictional regime because the pure flow law predicts tremendously high flow stress at high strain rate and "the weaker wins". Our simulations reproduced repeating overprint of brittle and ductile deformations. We attempt here to include pressure

  8. Simulation of Heavy Lake-Effect Snowstorms across the Great Lakes Basin by RegCM4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Notaro, M.; Zarrin, A.; Vavrus, S. J.; Bennington, V.

    2013-12-01

    A historical simulation (1976-2002) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, is validated against observed lake ice cover and snowfall across the Great Lakes Basin. The model reproduces the broad temporal and spatial features of both variables in terms of spatial distribution, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability, including climatological characteristics of lake-effect snowfall, although the simulated ice cover is overly extensive largely due to the absence of lake circulations. A definition is introduced for identifying heavy lake-effect snowstorms in regional climate model output for all grid cells in the Great Lakes Basin, using criteria based on location, wind direction, lake ice cover, and snowfall. Simulated heavy lake-effect snowstorms occur most frequently downwind of the Great Lakes, particularly to the east of Lake Ontario and to the east and south of Lake Superior, and are most frequent in December-January. The mechanism for these events is attributed to an anticyclone over the central United States and related cold air outbreak for areas downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie, in contrast to a nearby cyclone over the Great Lakes Basin and associated cold front for areas downwind of Lakes Superior, Huron, and Michigan. Projections of mid- and late-21st century lake-effect snowstorms in the Great Lakes Basin will be summarized, based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 (Coupled Model In