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Sample records for heavy precipitation simulation

  1. Widespread, Very Heavy Precipitation Events in Contemporary and Scenario Summer Climates from NARCCAP Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawazoe, S.; Gutowski, W. J., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    We analyze the ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate very heavy daily precipitation and supporting processes for both contemporary and future-scenario simulations during summer (JJA). RCM output comes from North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) simulations, which are all run at a spatial resolution of 50 km. Analysis focuses on the upper Mississippi basin for summer, between 1982-1998 for the contemporary climate, and 2052-2068 during the scenario climate. We also compare simulated precipitation and supporting processes with those obtained from observed precipitation and reanalysis atmospheric states. Precipitation observations are from the University of Washington (UW) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) gridded dataset. Utilizing two observational datasets helps determine if any uncertainties arise from differences in precipitation gridding schemes. Reanalysis fields come from the North American Regional Reanalysis. The NARCCAP models generally reproduce well the precipitation-vs.-intensity spectrum seen in observations, while producing overly strong precipitation at high intensity thresholds. In the future-scenario climate, there is a decrease in frequency for light to moderate precipitation intensities, while an increase in frequency is seen for the higher intensity events. Further analysis focuses on precipitation events exceeding the 99.5 percentile that occur simultaneously at several points in the region, yielding so-called "widespread events". For widespread events, we analyze local and large scale environmental parameters, such as 2-m temperature and specific humidity, 500-hPa geopotential heights, Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, among others, to compare atmospheric states and processes leading to such events in the models and observations. The results suggest that an analysis of atmospheric states supporting very heavy precipitation events is a

  2. Regional variability of the frequency distribution of daily precipitation and the synoptic characteristics of heavy precipitation events in present and future climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeAngelis, Anthony M.

    Changes in the characteristics of daily precipitation in response to global warming may have serious impacts on human life and property. An analysis of precipitation in climate models is performed to evaluate how well the models simulate the present climate and how precipitation may change in the future. Models participating in phase 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) have substantial biases in their simulation of heavy precipitation intensity over parts of North America during the 20th century. Despite these biases, the large-scale atmospheric circulation accompanying heavy precipitation is either simulated realistically or the strength of the circulation is overestimated. The biases are not related to the large-scale flow in a simple way, pointing toward the importance of other model deficiencies, such as coarse horizontal resolution and convective parameterizations, for the accurate simulation of intense precipitation. Although the models may not sufficiently simulate the intensity of precipitation, their realistic portrayal of the large-scale circulation suggests that projections of future precipitation may be reliable. In the CMIP5 ensemble, the distribution of daily precipitation is projected to undergo substantial changes in response to future atmospheric warming. The regional distribution of these changes was investigated, revealing that dry days and days with heavy-extreme precipitation are projected to increase at the expense of light-moderate precipitation over much of the middle and low latitudes. Such projections have serious implications for future impacts from flood and drought events. In other places, changes in the daily precipitation distribution are characterized by a shift toward either wetter or drier conditions in the future, with heavy-extreme precipitation projected to increase in all but the driest subtropical subsidence regions. Further analysis shows that increases in heavy precipitation in midlatitudes

  3. Atmospheric Rivers Induced Heavy Precipitation and Flooding in the Western U.S. Simulated by the WRF Regional Climate Model

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2009-02-12

    Twenty years of regional climate simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model for North America has been analyzed to study the influence of the atmospheric rivers and the role of the land surface on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. Compared to observations, the simulation realistically captured the 95th percentile extreme precipitation, mean precipitation intensity, as well as the mean precipitation and temperature anomalies of all the atmospheric river events between 1980-1999. Contrasting the 1986 President Day and 1997 New Year Day atmospheric river events, differences in atmospheric stability are found to have an influence on the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Coastal Range of northern California. Although both cases yield similar amounts of heavy precipitation, the 1997 case was found to produce more runoff compared to the 1986 case. Antecedent soil moisture, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation (which depends on temperature), and existing snowpack all seem to play a role, leading to a higher runoff to precipitation ratio simulated for the 1997 case. This study underscores the importance of characterizing or simulating atmospheric rivers and the land surface conditions for predicting floods, and for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S.

  4. Numerical Simulation and Analysis of the Localized Heavy Precipitation Event in South Korea based on diagnostic variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roh, Joon-Woo; Choi, Young-Jean

    2016-04-01

    Accurate prediction of precipitation is one of the most difficult and significant tasks in weather forecasting. Heavy precipitations in the Korean Peninsula are caused by various physical mechanisms, which are affected by shortwave trough, quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, and a direct/indirect effect of tropical cyclone. Many previous studies have used observations, numerical modeling, and statistics to investigate the potential causes of warm-season heavy precipitation in South Korea. Especially, the frequency of warm-season torrential rainfall events more than 30 mm/h precipitation has increased threefold in Seoul, a metropolitan city in South Korea, in recent 30 years. Localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances along the Changma front, or from convective instabilities resulting from unstable air masses. In order to investigate localized heavy precipitation system in Seoul metropolitan area, analysis and numerical experiment were performed for a typical event in 20 June 2014. This case is described to a structure of baroclinic instability associated with a short-wave trough from the northwest and high moist and warm air by a thermal low from the southwest of the Korean Peninsula. We investigated localized heavy precipitation in narrow zone of the Seoul urban area using numerical simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with convective scale. The topography and land use data of the revised U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) data and the appropriate set of physical scheme options for WRF model simulation were deliberated. Simulation experiments showed patches of primary physical structures related to the localized heavy precipitation using the diagnostic fields, which are storm relative helicity (SRH), updraft helicity (UH), and instantaneous contraction rates (ICON). SRH and UH are dominantly related to

  5. Mathematical model and computer simulation on moving precipitate boundary electrophoresis for offline sample pre- concentration of heavy metal ion.

    PubMed

    Chang, Jiang; Zhang, Jie; Wang, Hou-Yu; Fan, Liu-Yin; Fan, Yin-Ping; Li, Shan; Cao, Cheng-Xi

    2013-01-15

    In this paper, a mathematical model and computer simulator were developed for offline sample pretreatment of heavy metal ion based on moving precipitate boundary (MPB) electrophoresis. The simulation indicates that (i) the program can easily accomplish numerical computations, such as the velocities of MPB and elution boundary (EB), and enrichment factor (EF) etc; (ii) the simulator can vividly imitate the dynamics of MPB, EB, precipitate zone, and precipitate-elution; and (iii) the software may simply optimized experimental conditions via the influence factors (e.g., voltage, hydroxyl, hydrogen and metal ions) on the EF. As a proof of concept, copper ion and its precipitate with definite blue color were, respectively chosen as mode heavy metal ion and alkaline precipitate for the relevant experiments of MPB-based sample preconcentration of heavy metal ion in large tube. All of the experimental results manifest the validity of developed mathematical model and the relevant simulation results. The model and simulator advanced herein are of clear significance to the optimization of experimental conditions and understanding of offline MPB- based sample condensation of heavy metal ion.

  6. Simulation of heavy precipitation over Santacruz, Mumbai on 26 July 2005, using Mesoscale model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaidya, S. S.; Kulkarni, J. R.

    2007-10-01

    An attempt has been made to simulate the unprecedented heavy precipitation of 94.4 cm in a day over Santacruz, Mumbai during 0300 UTC 26 July to 0300 UTC 27 July 2005. Three experiments have been conducted using Advanced Regional Prediction System model developed by Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms of Oklahoma University, USA. In first experiment the model input at large domain size has been obtained using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data at 2.5° × 2.5° lat. lon. resolution. In other two experiments model input at large as well as at small domain sizes, have been obtained from NCEP/NCAR FNL data of 1° × 1° lat. lon. resolution. In all three experiments model’s horizontal resolution is 40 km and integration period is 30 hours from 0000 UTC 26 July 2005. Based on the temporal distribution of observed rainfall rates it is considered that the rainfall of 38.1 cm during 0900 1200 UTC on 26 July could be due to cloud burst phenomenon and 56.3 cm from 1200 UTC of 26 July to 0300 UTC of 27 July has been due to continuous regeneration of thunderstorm activity under influence of mesoscale cloud complex. It is found that model forecast of rainfall in first experiment was qualitatively as well as quantitatively very poor. Among other two, experiment with large domain size has predicted better rainfall values and location compared to the experiment with small domain size. The larger domain has produced rainfall of 41 cm as against observed rain rate of 56.3 cm. during 1200 UTC of 26 July to 0300 UTC of 27 July. Divergence, vorticity, vertical velocity and moisture parameters are examined in relation with the various stages of the event. The maximum values of convergence, vorticity and moisture fluxes precede the initial phase of mature stage, however vertical velocity follows the later phase of mature stage. Vorticity budget over the location of maximum rainfall, revealed the significant role of tilting term in maintenance and dissipation of the cloud complex

  7. A Study of Heavy Precipitation Events in Taiwan During 10-13 August, 1994. Part 2; Mesoscale Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei Kuo; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, W. K.-M.

    2001-01-01

    Several heavy precipitation episodes occurred over Taiwan from August 10 to 13, 1994. Precipitation patterns and characteristics are quite different between the precipitation events that occurred from August 10 and I I and from August 12 and 13. In Part I (Chen et al. 2001), the environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using the EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. In this study (Part II), the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to study the precipitation characteristics of these heavy precipitation events. Various physical processes (schemes) developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (i.e., cloud microphysics scheme, radiative transfer model, and land-soil-vegetation surface model) have recently implemented into the MM5. These physical packages are described in the paper, Two way interactive nested grids are used with horizontal resolutions of 45, 15 and 5 km. The model results indicated that Cloud physics, land surface and radiation processes generally do not change the location (horizontal distribution) of heavy precipitation. The Goddard 3-class ice scheme produced more rainfall than the 2-class scheme. The Goddard multi-broad-band radiative transfer model reduced precipitation compared to a one-broad band (emissivity) radiation model. The Goddard land-soil-vegetation surface model also reduce the rainfall compared to a simple surface model in which the surface temperature is computed from a Surface energy budget following the "force-re store" method. However, model runs including all Goddard physical processes enhanced precipitation significantly for both cases. The results from these runs are in better agreement with observations. Despite improved simulations using different physical schemes, there are still some deficiencies in the model simulations. Some potential problems are discussed. Sensitivity tests (removing either terrain or radiative

  8. Validation of the present day annual cycle in heavy precipitation over the British Islands simulated by 14 RCMs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schindler, A.; Maraun, D.; Luterbacher, J.

    2012-09-01

    The representation of the annual cycle of heavy daily precipitation events across the United Kingdom within 14 regional climate models (RCMs) and the European observation data set (E-OBS) over the 1961-2000 period is investigated. We model extreme precipitation as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a non-stationary threshold and use a sinusoidal model for the location and scale parameter of the corresponding generalized extreme value distribution and a constant shape parameter. First we fit the statistical model to the UK Met Office 5 km gridded precipitation data set (UKMO). Second the statistical model is fitted to 14 reanalysis driven 25 km resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project and to E-OBS. The resulting characteristics from the RCMs and from E-OBS are compared with those from UKMO. We study the peak time of the annual cycle of the monthly return levels, the relative amplitude of their annual cycle and the relative bias of their absolute values. We show that the performance of the RCMs depends strongly on the region. The RCMs show deficits in modeling the characteristics of the annual cycle, especially in modeling its relative amplitude and mainly in Eastern England. However the peak time of the annual cycle is adequately simulated by most RCMs. E-OBS exhibits considerable biases in the absolute values of all monthly return levels, but the relative amplitude and the phase of the annual cycle of heavy precipitation are well represented. Our results imply that studies which rely on the explicit annual cycle of simulated heavy precipitation should be carefully considered.

  9. Nowcasting of deep convective clouds and heavy precipitation: Comparison study between NWP model simulation and extrapolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sokol, Zbyněk; Zacharov, Petr

    2017-02-01

    An evaluation of convective cloud forecasts performed with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model COSMO and extrapolation of cloud fields is presented using observed data derived from the geostationary satellite Meteosat Second Generation (MSG). The present study focuses on the nowcasting range (1-5 h) for five severe convective storms in their developing stage that occurred during the warm season in the years 2012-2013. Radar reflectivity and extrapolated radar reflectivity data were assimilated for at least 6 h depending on the time of occurrence of convection. Synthetic satellite imageries were calculated using radiative transfer model RTTOV v10.2, which was implemented into the COSMO model. NWP model simulations of IR10.8 μm and WV06.2 μm brightness temperatures (BTs) with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km were interpolated into the satellite projection and objectively verified against observations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CORR) and Fractions Skill Score (FSS) values. Naturally, the extrapolation of cloud fields yielded an approximately 25% lower RMSE, 20% higher CORR and 15% higher FSS at the beginning of the second forecasted hour compared to the NWP model forecasts. On the other hand, comparable scores were observed for the third hour, whereas the NWP forecasts outperformed the extrapolation by 10% for RMSE, 15% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fourth forecasted hour and 15% for RMSE, 27% for CORR and up to 15% for FSS during the fifth forecasted hour. The analysis was completed by a verification of the precipitation forecasts yielding approximately 8% higher RMSE, 15% higher CORR and up to 45% higher FSS when the NWP model simulation is used compared to the extrapolation for the first hour. Both the methods yielded unsatisfactory level of precipitation forecast accuracy from the fourth forecasted hour onward.

  10. A study of heavy precipitation events in Taiwan during 10-13 August, 1994: mesoscale model simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, W.-K.; Chen, C.-S.; Jia, Y.; Baker, D.; Lang, S.; Wetzel, P.; Lau, K.-M.; Kuo, Y.-H.; Dudhia, J.; Starr, David O'C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Heavy rainfall occurred over the western side of Taiwan's complex terrain from August 10 to 13, 1994 after Typhoon Doug moved northward from the East China Sea into Taiwan and on towards the Yellow Sea. On August 10, most of the rainfall fell over sloped areas. The heaviest daily rainfall totals were in excess of 200 mm over southwestern as well as central Taiwan. However, not much rainfall occurred over northern Taiwan. The lack of rainfall over northern Taiwan also occurred on August 11, 12 and 13. The larger rainfall amounts shifted westward from the sloped areas on August 10 toward lower terrain on August 11. On August 12 and 13, most of the higher rainfall amounts were found over the coastal area in southwestern Taiwan. Notably, about 300 to 400 mm per day fell over the coastal area in southwest Taiwan on August 12 and 13. The distribution of rainfall amount was different on August 10 and 11 (termed as Case 1) compared to August 12 and 13 (termed as Case 2). The environmental situation and precipitation characteristics are analyzed using EC/TOGA data, ground-based radar data, surface rainfall patterns, surface wind data, and upper air soundings. Chen at al. (2001) also categorized the precipitation pattern into two types, propagating and quasi-stationary. For the propagating type of precipitation, rainrates increased or remained the same as systems went from the plains to mountainous regions. With the quasi-stationary type of precipitation, however, rainrates decreased as precipitation propagated across the plains and into the mountains. The focus of this study is to understand what causes the h1aher amounts of rainfall over Taiwan, and what factors influence where the higher amounts of rainfall will occur, over sloped areas or over coastal areas.

  11. High-resolution simulations of heavy precipitation events: role of the Adriatic SST and air-sea interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davolio, Silvio; Stocchi, Paolo

    2016-04-01

    Strong Bora and Sirocco winds over the Adriatic Sea favour intense air-sea interactions and are often associated with heavy rainfall that affects the mountainous areas surrounding the basin. A convection-permitting model (MOLOCH) has been implemented at high resolution (2 km) in order to analyse several precipitation events over northern Italy, occurred during different seasons of the year and presenting different rainfall characteristics (stratiform, convective, orographic), and to possibly identify the relevant physical mechanisms involved. With the aim of assessing the impact of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface fluxes on the intensity and location of the rainfall, sensitivity experiments have been performed taking into account the possible variability of SST analysis for model initialization. The model has been validated and specific diagnostic tools have been developed and applied to evaluate the vertically integrated moisture fluxes feeding the precipitating system or to compute a water balance in the atmosphere over the sea. The results show that the Adriatic Sea plays a role in determining the boundary layer characteristics through exchange of heat and moisture thus modifying the low-level flow dynamics and its interaction with the orography. This in turn impacts on the rainfall. Although the results vary among the analysed events, the precise definition of the SST and its evolution can be relevant for accurate precipitation forecasting.

  12. Variability in heavy precipitation over southern Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shein, K. A.

    2009-12-01

    Southern Florida is home to the unique Everglades ecosystem that feeds into the Florida Bay. Heavy precipitation events, either over the Everglades or the Bay can introduce pollutants and excessive fresh water into the bay, while prolonged drought reduces water levels in the wetlands and can contribute to hypersalinity events in the bay. Systematic changes in precipitation frequency and intensity can result in long-term negative impacts to these southern Florida ecosystems. This paper examines the historical in situ record of precipitation over southern Florida, with special emphasis on evaluating the behavior of heavy precipitation events and periods of deficit.

  13. Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.

    2016-12-01

    Environmental phenomena are often first observed, and then explained or simulated quantitatively. The complexity and diversity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles to describe many processes make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes to first order manifest themselves in simple ways: the intensification of heavy precipitation is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and a variety of model predictions made decades ago, before robust evidence arose from observations. We here compare heavy precipitation changes over Europe and the contiguous United States across station series and gridded observations, theoretical considerations and multi-model ensembles of GCMs and RCMs. We demonstrate that the observed heavy precipitation intensification aggregated over large areas agrees remarkably well with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The observed changes in heavy precipitation are consistent yet somewhat larger than predicted by very coarse resolution GCMs in the 1980s and simulated by the newest generation of GCMs and RCMs. For instance the number of days with very heavy precipitation over Europe has increased by about 45% in observations (years 1981-2013 compared to 1951-1980) and by about 25% in the model average in both GCMs and RCMs, although with substantial spread across models and locations. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts. *Fischer, E.M., and R. Knutti, 2016, Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models, Nature Climate Change, in press.

  14. Heavy precipitation events in northern Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakaki, Paraskevi; Martius, Olivia

    2013-04-01

    Heavy precipitation events in the Alpine region often cause floods, rock-falls and mud slides with severe consequences for population and economy. Breaking synoptic Rossby waves located over western Europe, play a central role in triggering such heavy rain events in southern Switzerland (e.g. Massacand et al. 1998). In contrast, synoptic scale structures triggering heavy precipitation on the north side of the Swiss Alps and orographic effects have so far not been studied comprehensively. An observation based high resolution precipitation data set for Switzerland and the Alps (MeteoSwiss) is used to identify heavy precipitation events affecting the north side of the Swiss Alps for the time period 1961-2010. For these events a detailed statistical and dynamical analysis of the upper level flow is conducted using ECMWFs ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data sets. For the analysis north side of the Swiss Alps is divided in two investigation areas north-eastern and western Switzerland following the Swiss climate change scenarios (Bey et al. 2011). A subjective classification of upper level structures triggering heavy precipitation events in the areas of interest is presented. Four classes are defined based on the orientation and formation of the dynamical tropopause during extreme events in the northern part of Switzerland and its sub-regions. The analysis is extended by a climatology of breaking waves and cut-offs following the method of Wernli and Sprenger (2007) to examine their presence and location during extreme events. References Bey I., Croci-Maspoli M., Fuhrer J., Kull C, Appenzeller C., Knutti R. and Schär C. Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011, C2SM, MeteoSwiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, OcCC (2011), http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-006720559 Massacand A., H. Wernli, and H.C. Davies, 1998. Heavy precipitation on the Alpine South side: An upper-level precursor. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1435-1438. MeteoSwiss 2011. Documentation of Meteoswiss grid-data products

  15. Using NORAPS for forecasting heavy precipitation with topographic forcing

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, J.; Leach, M.J.

    1997-02-01

    Heavy precipitation events, associated with winter storm systems, frequently produce devastating flooding throughout the state of California. One of the most disastrous floods in recent years occurred in March of 1995. A storm moved through California from March 7 to 11, 1995 causing flooding in a total of 57 counties in California. the storm moved to the northwest coast of California on March 7 and started producing heavy rainfall on March 8 in northern California. Then the storm moved southward and continuously produced heavy rain as it moved through California. On March 9, a maximum of 177 mm precipitation fell in northern California and brought a maximum of 140 mm precipitation to that area on March 10. In addition to the heavy rain, heavy snow fell in the higher elevations, with snow depths exceeding 12 meters in some locations in the Sierra Nevada mountains, reported by late March. Although such storms have been a research subject for many years, some features of the California storms, such as slow movement, the mesoscale structure and orographic effects on the storm movement and structure are not well understood. Consequently, storms such as the March 1995 event, are often not well predicted. The purpose of this study is to try to improve our understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms that produce the mesoscale structure and storm movement throughout the state. A greater understanding of the physical interactions un these storms will ultimately lead to improved precipitation forecasts, including both the spatial and temporal distribution. Improved forecasts benefit society by reducing threat to life and property and to improved water resource management. We have chosen the Navy Operational Regional Atmospheric Prediction System (NORAPS) to simulate the storms and study the dynamics and physics of these storm systems.

  16. Skill assessment of precipitation nowcasting in Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Very short-term precipitation forecasting (i.e nowcasting) systems may provide valuable support in the weather surveillance process as they allow to issue automated early warnings for heavy precipitation events (HPE) as reviewed recently by Pierce et al. (2012). The need for warnings is essential in densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean coastal areas, prone to flash-floods. Several HPEs that occurred in NE Spain are analyzed using a nowcasting system based on the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011). Radar-based nowcasts, with lead times up to 3 h, are verified here against quality-controlled weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates and also against a dense network of raingauges. The basic questions studied are the dependence of forecast quality with lead time and rainfall amounts in several high-impact HPEs such as the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) - both cases had intense rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and daily values above 100 mm. Verification scores indicated that forecasts of 30' precipitation amounts provided useful guidance for lead times up to 60' for moderate intensities (up to 1 mm in 30') and up to 2.5h for lower rates (above 0.1 mm). On the other hand correlations of radar estimates and forecasts exceeded Eulerian persistence of precipitation estimates for lead times of 1.5 h for moderate intensities (up to 0.8 mm/h). We complete the analysis with a discussion on the reliability of threshold to lead time dependence based on the event-to-event variability found. This work has been done in the framework of the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M

  17. Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neykov, N. M.; Neytchev, P. N.; Zucchini, W.

    2014-09-01

    Stochastic daily precipitation models are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily timescale. The standard models consist of two components describing the occurrence and intensity series, respectively. Binary logistic regression is used to fit the occurrence data, and the intensity series is modeled using a continuous-valued right-skewed distribution, such as gamma, Weibull or lognormal. The precipitation series is then modeled using the joint density, and standard software for generalized linear models can be used to perform the computations. A drawback of these precipitation models is that they do not produce a sufficiently heavy upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amounts; they tend to underestimate the frequency of large storms. In this study, we adapted the approach of Furrer and Katz (2008) based on hybrid distributions in order to correct for this shortcoming. In particular, we applied hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto (GP) and hybrid Weibull-GP distributions to develop a stochastic precipitation model for daily rainfall at Ihtiman in western Bulgaria. We report the results of simulations designed to compare the models based on the hybrid distributions and those based on the standard distributions. Some potential difficulties are outlined.

  18. Stochastic daily precipitation model with a heavy-tailed component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neykov, N. M.; Neytchev, P. N.; Zucchini, W.

    2014-02-01

    Stochastic daily precipitation models are commonly used to generate scenarios of climate variability or change on a daily time scale. The standard models consist of two components describing the occurrence and intensity series, respectively. Binary logistic regression is used to fit the occurrence data, and the intensity series is modeled by a continuous-valued right-skewed distribution, such as gamma, Weibull or lognormal. The precipitation series is then modeled using the joint density and standard software for generalized linear models can be used to perform the computations. A drawback of these precipitation models is that they do not produce a sufficiently heavy upper tail for the distribution of daily precipitation amounts; they tend to underestimate the frequency of large storms. In this study we adapted the approach of Furrer and Katz (2008) based on hybrid distributions in order to correct for this shortcoming. In particular we applied hybrid gamma - generalized Pareto (GP) and hybrid Weibull-GP distributions to develop a stochastic precipitation model for daily rainfall at Ihtiman in western Bulgaria. We report the results of simulations designed to compare the models based on the hybrid distributions and those based on the standard distributions. Some potential difficulties are outlined.

  19. Warm season heavy precipitation up- and downwind of Lake Michigan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trojniak, Sarah M.

    In the Great Lakes region, understanding how the lakes affect weather systems is extremely important. To better understand these influences, warm season precipitation amounts upwind (west) and downwind (east) of Lake Michigan were examined. NCDC Unified Precipitation Data (UPD) from 1979 to 2012 was used to evaluate precipitation characteristics for both sides of the lake. The frequency of heavy rain for each side of the lake was examined and heavy rain days were categorized based on various domain and heavy rainfall scenarios, such as one side of the lake receiving a heavy rainfall event but not the other. From these categories, composites were created to examine precipitation patterns and meteorological parameters associated with heavy rain were identified. Composites were evaluated for representativeness to determine if the classification scheme defined the general synoptic environment. The marine layer over Lake Michigan was examined to determine if the strength of the stable layer effects precipitation. Lastly, two individual case studies were performed to determine if the observed precipitation swath was a better identifier of the synoptic environment observed when heavy rain is or isn't observed around the lake. In addition, the evaluated case studies provided insight into the meteorological environment present during heavy rainfall. This identified days where the meteorological environment did not support the observed precipitation; thus suggesting the possibility of lake influences.

  20. Conditional simulations for fields of extreme precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bechler, Aurélien; Vrac, Mathieu; Bel, Liliane

    2014-05-01

    Many environmental models, such as hydrological models, require input data, e.g. precipitation values, correctly simulated and distributed, even at locations where no observation is available. This is particularly true for extreme events that may be of high importance for impact studies. The last decade has seen max-stable processes emerge as a powerful tool for the statistical modeling of spatial extremes. Recently, such processes have been used in climate context to perform simulations at ungauged sites based on empirical distributions of a spatial field conditioned by observed values in some locations. In this work conditional simulations of extremal t process are investigated, taking benefits of its spectral construction. The methodology of conditional simulations proposed by Dombry et al. [2013] for Brown-Resnick and Schlather models is adapted for the extremal t process with some improvements which enlarge the possible number of conditional points. A simulation study enables to highlight the role of the different parameters of the model and to emphasize the importance of the steps of the algorithm. In this work, we focus on the French Mediterranean basin, which is a key spot of occurrences of meteorological extremes such as heavy precipitation. Indeed, major extreme precipitation are regularly observed in this region near the 'cévenol" mountains. The modeling and the understanding of these extreme precipitation - the so-called 'cévenol events" - are of major importance for hydrological studies in this complex terrain since they often trigger major floods in this region. The application of our methodology on real data in this region shows that the model and the algorithm perform well provided the stationary assumptions are fulfilled.

  1. Understanding Oceanic Heavy Precipitation Using Scatterometer, Satellite Precipitation, and Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garg, Piyush; Nesbitt, Stephen W.; Lang, Timothy J.; Chronis, Themis

    2016-01-01

    The primary aim of this study is to understand the heavy precipitation events over Oceanic regions using vector wind retrievals from space based scatterometers in combination with precipitation products from satellite and model reanalysis products. Heavy precipitation over oceans is a less understood phenomenon and this study tries to fill in the gaps which may lead us to a better understanding of heavy precipitation over oceans. Various phenomenon may lead to intense precipitation viz. MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation), Extratropical cyclones, MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems), that occur inside or outside the tropics and if we can decipher the physical mechanisms behind occurrence of heavy precipitation, then it may lead us to a better understanding of such events which further may help us in building more robust weather and climate models. During a heavy precipitation event, scatterometer wind observations may lead us to understand the governing dynamics behind that event near the surface. We hypothesize that scatterometer winds can observe significant changes in the near-surface circulation and that there are global relationships among these quantities. To the degree to which this hypothesis fails, we will learn about the regional behavior of heavy precipitation-producing systems over the ocean. We use a "precipitation feature" (PF) approach to enable statistical analysis of a large database of raining features.

  2. Heavy Precipitation in Regional Climate Models: Does it Pay to Play Analogue?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2016-12-01

    Regional models in general simulate the extreme precipitation statistics better than general circulation models (GCMs) as a result of more realistic representation of topography and better ability to resolve mesoscale processes, land surface-atmosphere interaction, and dynamics and vertical motion. Through an analogue method that employs the resolved large-scale atmospheric conditions to detect the occurrence of heavy precipitation event, multi-GCM median of late 20th century heavy precipitation frequency is more consistent with observation and inter-model variance is smaller as compared to the corresponding results using model-simulated precipitation. In this study, we explore whether the analogue method, when used with the higher-resolution regional climate model simulations (yet driven by coarser weather/climate information at the larger scale) from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), can result in further improvement in detecting heavy precipitation events. Combinations of different atmospheric variables for circulation features (geopotential height and wind shear), moisture plumes (surface specific humidity and column precipitable water), and convective instability (convective available potential energy, CAPE) are examined to construct the analogue schemes for the summer (JJA) of the Midwestern United States (MWST), which is among the weaker regions in model performance for simulated summer U.S. precipitation. We employ gridded precipitation-gauge observations and global atmospheric reanalysis to calibrate and validate the analogue method to be implemented at the spatial resolution comparable to that of NARCCAP models (approximately 50 km). We also explore the effect of lateral boundary conditions on the performance of analogue schemes by comparing the integrations driven by reanalysis to those driven by global climate models. Projected mid-century future changes in summer heavy precipitation frequency are further assessed

  3. Using total precipitable water anomaly as a forecast aid for heavy precipitation events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VandenBoogart, Lance M.

    Heavy precipitation events are of interest to weather forecasters, local government officials, and the Department of Defense. These events can cause flooding which endangers lives and property. Military concerns include decreased trafficability for military vehicles, which hinders both war- and peace-time missions. Even in data-rich areas such as the United States, it is difficult to determine when and where a heavy precipitation event will occur. The challenges are compounded in data-denied regions. The hypothesis that total precipitable water anomaly (TPWA) will be positive and increasing preceding heavy precipitation events is tested in order to establish an understanding of TPWA evolution. Results are then used to create a precipitation forecast aid. The operational, 16 km-gridded, 6-hourly TPWA product developed at the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) compares a blended TPW product with a TPW climatology to give a percent of normal TPWA value. TPWA evolution is examined for 84 heavy precipitation events which occurred between August 2010 and November 2011. An algorithm which uses various TPWA thresholds derived from the 84 events is then developed and tested using dichotomous contingency table verification statistics to determine the extent to which satellite-based TPWA might be used to aid in forecasting precipitation over mesoscale domains. The hypothesis of positive and increasing TPWA preceding heavy precipitation events is supported by the analysis. Event-average TPWA rises for 36 hours and peaks at 154% of normal at the event time. The average precipitation event detected by the forecast algorithm is not of sufficient magnitude to be termed a "heavy" precipitation event; however, the algorithm adds skill to a climatological precipitation forecast. Probability of detection is low and false alarm ratios are large, thus qualifying the algorithm's current use as an aid rather than a deterministic forecast tool. The algorithm

  4. Sensitivity of WRF-ARW for Heavy Precipitation Event over the Eastern Black Sea Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doǧan, Onur Hakan; Önol, Barış

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we examined the extreme summer precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using WRF-ARW. 11 people were killed by the flood and many buildings were damaged by the landslides in Artvin province. The flood caused by heavy precipitation between August 23 and 24, 2015 and the station observation is 255 mm total precipitation for the two days. We have also used satellite based observational data (Global Precipitation Measurement: GPM), which represents 150 mm total precipitation during case, to validate precipitation simulations. We designed three nested domains with 27-9-3 km resolutions for the simulations and the inner domain covers the all Black Sea and the surrounded coasts. The simulations have been driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim data and the initial conditions have been generated for 4 different simulations which are 3-days, 7-days, 15-days and 25-days long. WRF-ARW model physics parameters have been tested to improve simulation capability for extreme precipitation events. The microphysics (Kessler and New-Thompson) and PBL (YSU PBL and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic) options have been applied for each simulations separately, therefore 15 sensitivity simulation have been analyzed by using different parametrizations. In general, all simulations underestimated the two days extreme precipitation event which the large scale flow interact with warmer sea surface temperatures and complex topography over the eastern Black Sea region. The 3-days simulation with Kessler microphysics and YSU PBL predicts 148 mm precipitation which is highest simulated precipitation compare to all simulations for the corresponding station location. Moreover 25-days simulation represents better spatial coverage for precipitation pattern compare to the GPM data.

  5. The Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Heavy Precipitation in Seoul

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, K. S.; Yu, J.; Im, J.; Jin, R.

    2014-12-01

    1.Introduction Combined with summer heavy rainfall and urbanization today's urban area face higher frequency of heavy rainfall with higher intensity in summer than before. Heavy rainfall in short time makes it low elevation area to be susceptible to more flooding than before. According to KMA it is announced as heavy rainfall warning whose precipitation amount is equal to or greater than 150mm per 12 hours. And sometimes, these rainfall events bring out severe disasters such as the case of flooding in Gangnam Station, Daechi Station and landslides which resulted in 20 person death in downtown Seoul on July 27th, 2011. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal pattern of heavy precipitation in Seoul. Ultimately it aims to contribute these results to the proper urban planning and management. 2. Materials and Methods In this study, the digital topograhic data and weather data in Seoul Metropolitan Area were used to figure out the spatial distribution of summer heavy rainfall. The precipitation data in summer (June to Sep.) season were used to detect the recent changes of temporal and spatial features from 1995 to 2014 (20 years) using Automatic Weather tation (AWS) data in Seoul Metropolitan Area. The precipitation amount in summer during the past 20 years has been on the rise but rainy days have barely changed,which reveals the daily precipitation intensity has increased. After deriving the characteristic of heavy rainfall, the relationship among precipitation, topography and land uses were interpreted and discussed. This study is to investigate the characteristics of flood prone area by focusing topographic and land use characteristics. Ultimately it contributes to prepare the guideline for flood preventive urban plannig.

  6. How do blockings relate to heavy precipitation events in Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenggenhager, Sina; Romppainen, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa

    2017-04-01

    Atmospheric blockings are quasi-stationary high pressure systems that persist for several days. Due to their longevity, blockings can be key features for extreme weather events. While several studies have shown their relevant role for temperatures extremes, the link between blockings and extreme precipitation and floods is still poorly understood. A case study of a Swiss lake flood event in the year 2000 reveals how different processes connected to blockings can favour the development of a flood. First upstream blocks helped to form strongly elongated troughs that are known to be associated with heavy precipitation events south of the Alps. Second recurrent precipitation events upstream of a block led to a moistening of the catchment and an increase of the lake level. Third the progression of the upstream weather systems was slowed and thereby the precipitation period over a catchment prolonged. Additionally, cloud diabatic processes in the flood region contributed to the establishment and maintenance of blocking anticyclones. Based on this case study we extend our analysis to all of Europe. Focusing on flood relevant precipitation events, i.e. extreme precipitation events that last for several days and affect larger areas, we show that different regions in Europe have very distinct seasonal precipitation patterns. Hence there is a strong seasonality in the occurrence of extreme events, depending on the geographical region. We further suggest that for different precipitation regimes, the preferred location of blockings varies strongly. Heavy precipitation events in southern France, for example, are often observed during Scandinavian blockings, while heavy precipitation events in south-eastern Europe coincide more often with eastern North-Atlantic blockings.

  7. A test for Improvement of high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for localized heavy precipitation events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jung-Hoon; Roh, Joon-Woo; Park, Jeong-Gyun

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of precipitation is one of the most difficult and significant tasks in the area of weather diagnostic and forecasting. In the Korean Peninsula, heavy precipitations are caused by various physical mechanisms, which are affected by shortwave trough, quasi-stationary moisture convergence zone among varying air masses, and a direct/indirect effect of tropical cyclone. In addition to, various geographical and topographical elements make production of temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is very complicated. Especially, localized heavy rainfall events in South Korea generally arise from mesoscale convective systems embedded in these synoptic scale disturbances. In weather radar data with high temporal and spatial resolution, accurate estimation of rain rate from radar reflectivity data is too difficult. Z-R relationship (Marshal and Palmer 1948) have adapted representatively. In addition to, several methods such as support vector machine (SVM), neural network, Fuzzy logic, Kriging were utilized in order to improve the accuracy of rain rate. These methods show the different quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and the performances of accuracy are different for heavy precipitation cases. In this study, in order to improve the accuracy of QPE for localized heavy precipitation, ensemble method for Z-R relationship and various techniques was tested. This QPE ensemble method was developed by a concept based on utilizing each advantage of precipitation calibration methods. The ensemble members were produced for a combination of different Z-R coefficient and calibration method.

  8. Statistical properties of planetary heavy ion precipitations toward the Martian ionosphere based on Mars Express observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hara, T.; Seki, K.; Futaana, Y.; Yamauchi, M.; Barabash, S.; Fedorov, A. O.; Yagi, M.; Delcourt, D. C.

    2013-09-01

    Picked-up ion precipitations are a potential mechanism to increase an atmospheric escape from the unmagnetized planet of Mars. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded in the supersonic solar wind is one of the crucial parameters to control the behavior of the Martian planetary heavy ions. We statistically investigated the effects of the IMF orientation on planetary heavy ions precipitating toward the Martian ionosphere by using data obtained from the Ion Mass Analyzer (IMA) onboard the Mars Express (MEX). To compensate for the absence of a magnetometer onboard MEX, we estimated the IMF orientation from the velocity distribution function of exospheric protons observed in the solar wind. The statistical analysis shows that the precipitations of planetary heavy ions tend to be observed in the direction or the anti-parallel direction of the solar wind electric field inferred from the estimated IMF orientation. We defined the IMF polarity for one event via comparisons of the ion velocity distribution function obtained from MEX/IMA observations and a statistical trajectory tracing of test particles. The estimated polarity corresponds to the anti-parallel direction to the solar wind electric field and is consistent with the asymmetrical distribution of planetary heavy ion precipitation in terms of the solar wind electric field derived from the previous numerical simulations. The observed precipitating planetary heavy ions are accelerated only up to a few keV. This feature may reflect the short distance from the picked-up region in the magnetosheath.

  9. Statistical Significance of the Trends in Monthly Heavy Precipitation Over the US

    SciTech Connect

    Mahajan, Salil; North, Dr. Gerald R.; Saravanan, Dr. R.; Genton, Dr. Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall's {tau} test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong.

  10. Observed heavy precipitation increase in Europe broadly consistent with global and regional climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Erich; Knutti, Reto

    2017-04-01

    Environmental phenomena are often first observed, and then explained or simulated quantitatively. The complexity and diversity of processes, the range of scales involved, and the lack of first principles to describe many processes make it challenging to predict conditions beyond the ones observed. Here we use the intensification of heavy precipitation as a counterexample, where seemingly complex and potentially computationally intractable processes to first order manifest themselves in simple ways: the intensification of heavy precipitation is now emerging in the observed record across many regions of the world, confirming both theory and a variety of model predictions made decades ago, before robust evidence arose from observations. We here compare heavy precipitation changes over Europe and the contiguous United States across station series and gridded observations, theoretical considerations and multi-model ensembles of GCMs and RCMs. We demonstrate that the observed heavy precipitation intensification aggregated over large areas agrees remarkably well with Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The observed changes in heavy precipitation are consistent yet somewhat larger than predicted by very coarse resolution GCMs in the 1980s and simulated by the newest generation of GCMs and RCMs. For instance the number of days with very heavy precipitation over Europe has increased by about 45% in observations (years 1981-2013 compared to 1951-1980) and by about 25% in the model average in both GCMs and RCMs, although with substantial spread across models and locations. As the anthropogenic climate signal strengthens, there will be more opportunities to test climate predictions for other variables against observations and across a hierarchy of different models and theoretical concepts.

  11. Precipitation Simulation of AZ91 Alloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, C.; Cao, W.; Chen, S.-L.; Zhu, J.; Zhang, F.; Luo, A. A.; Schmid-Fetzer, R.

    2014-03-01

    Precipitation simulation of AZ91 (Mg-9Al-1Zn; all compositions are in wt.% unless otherwise stated.) magnesium alloy is carried out in this work using the PanPrecipitation module of Pandat™ software. In addition to the software, the thermodynamic database, mobility database, and precipitation database for AZ91 were developed to perform the simulation. The simulated results, such as the number density and particle size of the γ-Mg17Al12 precipitate, showed good agreement with the experimental data. Moreover, the simulated results were then used as input for the prediction of yield strength and micro-hardness of AZ91 aged at different temperatures, which also agreed well with experimental results. To demonstrate the applicability of the databases developed for AZ91, simulations were also carried out for two compositions with lower and higher Zn content. The simulated hardness showed reasonable agreement with the published experimental data.

  12. Waste and Simulant Precipitation Issues

    SciTech Connect

    Steele, W.V.

    2000-11-29

    As Savannah River Site (SRS) personnel have studied methods of preparing high-level waste for vitrification in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), questions have arisen with regard to the formation of insoluble waste precipitates at inopportune times. One option for decontamination of the SRS waste streams employs the use of an engineered form of crystalline silicotitanate (CST). Testing of the process during FY 1999 identified problems associated with the formation of precipitates during cesium sorption tests using CST. These precipitates may, under some circumstances, obstruct the pores of the CST particles and, hence, interfere with the sorption process. In addition, earlier results from the DWPF recycle stream compatibility testing have shown that leaching occurs from the CST when it is stored at 80 C in a high-pH environment. Evidence was established that some level of components of the CST, such as silica, was leached from the CST. This report describes the results of equilibrium modeling and precipitation studies associated with the overall stability of the waste streams, CST component leaching, and the presence of minor components in the waste streams.

  13. Increasing frequencies and changing characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in Europe under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissen, Katrin M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2017-07-01

    The effect of climate change on potentially infrastructure-damaging heavy precipitation events in Europe is investigated in an ensemble of regional climate simulations conducted at a horizontal resolution of 12 km. Based on legislation and stakeholder interviews the 10-year return period is used as a threshold for the detection of relevant events. A novel technique for the identification of heavy precipitation events is introduced. It records not only event frequency but also event size, duration and severity (a measure taking duration, size and rain amount into account) as these parameters determine the potential consequences of the event. Over most of Europe the frequency of relevant heavy precipitation events is predicted to increase with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The number of daily and multi-day events increases at a lower rate than the number of sub-daily events. The event size is predicted to increase in the future over many European regions, especially for sub-daily events. Moreover, the most severe events were detected in the projection period. The predicted changes in frequency, size and intensity of events may increase the risk for infrastructure damages. The climate change simulations do not show changes in event duration.

  14. Analysis of changes in the magnitude, frequency, and seasonality of heavy precipitation over the contiguous USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele

    2016-08-01

    Auc(bstract) Gridded daily precipitation observations over the contiguous USA are used to investigate the past observed changes in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation, and to examine its seasonality. Analyses are based on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) daily precipitation data from 1948 to 2012. We use a block maxima approach to identify changes in the magnitude of heavy precipitation and a peak-over-threshold (POT) approach for the changes in the frequency. The results of this study show that there is a stronger signal of change in the frequency rather than in the magnitude of heavy precipitation events. Also, results show an increasing trend in the frequency of heavy precipitation over large areas of the contiguous USA with the most notable exception of the US Northwest. These results indicate that over the last 65 years, the stronger storms are not getting stronger, but a larger number of heavy precipitation events have been observed. The annual maximum precipitation and annual frequency of heavy precipitation reveal a marked seasonality over the contiguous USA. However, we could not find any evidence suggesting shifting in the seasonality of annual maximum precipitation by investigating whether the day of the year at which the maximum precipitation occurs has changed over time. Furthermore, we examine whether the year-to-year variations in the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation can be explained in terms of climate variability driven by the influence of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Our findings indicate that the climate variability of both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can exert a large control on the precipitation frequency and magnitude over the contiguous USA. Also, the results indicate that part of the spatial and temporal features of the relationship between climate variability and heavy precipitation magnitude and frequency can be described by one or more of the climate indices considered here.

  15. Heavy ion-induced amorphlsation of Zr(Fe, Cr) 2 precipitates in Zircaloy-4

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefebvre, Florence; Lemaignan, Clément

    1989-05-01

    It is generally accepted that the impact of neutron irradiation on Zircaloy microstructure may be involved on the behaviour of PWR fuel cladding at high burnup during transients. In order to describe and understand the microstructure evolution in reactor, neutron damage has been simulated with heavy ions on a Zircaloy-4 recrystallized sheet up to 100 dpa at 873 K. A complete amorphisation is observed for all precipitates, and a chromium and iron segregation ring is measured around them. The contributions of nuclear collisions and thermal diffusion as driving forces of both phenomena are discussed, as well as the impact of it on Pellet Cladding Interaction (PCI) behaviour.

  16. Simulating multimodal seasonality in extreme daily precipitation occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tye, Mari R.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Stephenson, David B.; Kilsby, Christopher G.

    2016-06-01

    Floods pose multi-dimensional hazards to critical infrastructure and society and these hazards may increase under climate change. While flood conditions are dependent on catchment type and soil conditions, seasonal precipitation extremes also play an important role. The extreme precipitation events driving flood occurrence may arrive non-uniformly in time. In addition, their seasonal and inter-annual patterns may also cause sequences of several events and enhance likely flood responses. Spatial and temporal patterns of extreme daily precipitation occurrence are characterized across the UK. Extreme and very heavy daily precipitation is not uniformly distributed throughout the year, but exhibits spatial differences, arising from the relative proximity to the North Atlantic Ocean or North Sea. Periods of weeks or months are identified during which extreme daily precipitation occurrences are most likely to occur, with some regions of the UK displaying multimodal seasonality. A Generalized Additive Model is employed to simulate extreme daily precipitation occurrences over the UK from 1901 to 2010 and to allow robust statistical testing of temporal changes in the seasonal distribution. Simulations show that seasonality has the strongest correlation with intra-annual variations in extreme event occurrence, while Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) have the strongest correlation with inter-annual variations. The north and west of the UK are dominated by MSLP in the mid-North Atlantic and the south and east are dominated by local SST. All regions now have a higher likelihood of autumnal extreme daily precipitation than earlier in the twentieth century. This equates to extreme daily precipitation occurring earlier in the autumn in the north and west, and later in the autumn in the south and east. The change in timing is accompanied by increases in the probability of extreme daily precipitation occurrences during the autumn, and in the number of

  17. Carbon precipitation from heavy hydrocarbon fluid in deep planetary interiors.

    PubMed

    Lobanov, Sergey S; Chen, Pei-Nan; Chen, Xiao-Jia; Zha, Chang-Sheng; Litasov, Konstantin D; Mao, Ho-Kwang; Goncharov, Alexander F

    2013-01-01

    The phase diagram of the carbon-hydrogen system is of great importance to planetary sciences, as hydrocarbons comprise a significant part of icy giant planets and are involved in reduced carbon-oxygen-hydrogen fluid in the deep Earth. Here we use resistively- and laser-heated diamond anvil cells to measure methane melting and chemical reactivity up to 80 GPa and 2,000 K. We show that methane melts congruently below 40 GPa. Hydrogen and elementary carbon appear at temperatures of >1,200 K, whereas heavier alkanes and unsaturated hydrocarbons (>24 GPa) form in melts of >1,500 K. The phase composition of carbon-hydrogen fluid evolves towards heavy hydrocarbons at pressures and temperatures representative of Earth's lower mantle. We argue that reduced mantle fluids precipitate diamond upon re-equilibration to lighter species in the upwelling mantle. Likewise, our findings suggest that geophysical models of Uranus and Neptune require reassessment because chemical reactivity of planetary ices is underestimated.

  18. Spatially and temporally consistent prediction of heavy precipitation from mean values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Benestad, R. E.; Nychka, D.; Mearns, L. O.

    2012-07-01

    Extreme precipitation can cause flooding, result in substantial damages and have detrimental effects on ecosystems. Climate adaptation must therefore account for the greatest precipitation amounts that may be expected over a certain time span. The recurrence of extreme-to-heavy precipitation is notoriously hard to predict, yet cost-benefit estimates of mitigation and successful climate adaptation will need reliable information about percentiles for daily precipitation. Here we present a new and simple formula that relates wet-day mean precipitation to heavy precipitation, providing a method for predicting and downscaling daily precipitation statistics. We examined 32,857 daily rain-gauge records from around the world and the evaluation of the method demonstrated that wet-day precipitation percentiles can be predicted with high accuracy. Evaluations against independent data demonstrated high skill in both space and time, indicating a highly robust methodology.

  19. Very-Heavy Precipitation in the Greater New York City Region and Widespread Drought Alleviation Tied to Western US Agriculture.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Travis D; Felzer, Benjamin S

    2015-01-01

    Observed intensification of precipitation extremes, responsible for extensive societal impacts, are widely attributed to anthropogenic sources, which may include indirect effects of agricultural irrigation. However quantifying the effects of irrigation on far-downstream climate remains a challenge. We use three paired Community Earth System Model simulations to assess mechanisms of irrigation-induced precipitation trends and extremes in the conterminous US and the effect on the terrestrial carbon sink. Results suggest precipitation enhancement in the central US reduced drought conditions and increased regional carbon uptake, while further downstream, the heaviest precipitation events were more frequent and intense. Specifically, moisture advection from irrigation in the western U.S. and recycling of enhanced local convective precipitation produced very-heavy storm events that were 11% more intense and occurred 23% more frequently in the densely populated greater New York City region.

  20. Very-Heavy Precipitation in the Greater New York City Region and Widespread Drought Alleviation Tied to Western US Agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Andrews, Travis D.; Felzer, Benjamin S.

    2015-01-01

    Observed intensification of precipitation extremes, responsible for extensive societal impacts, are widely attributed to anthropogenic sources, which may include indirect effects of agricultural irrigation. However quantifying the effects of irrigation on far-downstream climate remains a challenge. We use three paired Community Earth System Model simulations to assess mechanisms of irrigation-induced precipitation trends and extremes in the conterminous US and the effect on the terrestrial carbon sink. Results suggest precipitation enhancement in the central US reduced drought conditions and increased regional carbon uptake, while further downstream, the heaviest precipitation events were more frequent and intense. Specifically, moisture advection from irrigation in the western U.S. and recycling of enhanced local convective precipitation produced very-heavy storm events that were 11% more intense and occurred 23% more frequently in the densely populated greater New York City region. PMID:26642049

  1. AN-102 Simulant Sr/TRU Precipitation and Ultrafiltration

    SciTech Connect

    Zamecnik, J.R.

    2003-04-28

    The objective of these tests was to gather data on performance of the single-tube crossflow ultrafilter unit to de-water the simulant precipitate derived from a project approved tank 241-AN-102 simulant. Upon completion of the objectives with the approved R1 simulant, the simulant specification was changed and additional work at modified precipitation conditions was requested.

  2. Statistical properties of planetary heavy-ion precipitations toward the Martian ionosphere obtained from Mars Express

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hara, Takuya; Seki, Kanako; Futaana, Yoshifumi; Yamauchi, Masatoshi; Barabash, Stas; Fedorov, Andrei O.; Yagi, Manabu; Delcourt, Dominique C.

    2013-08-01

    The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) embedded in the solar wind interacts with the Martian crustal magnetic field and atmosphere. The IMF orientation is one of the important parameters to control the acceleration and precipitation of planetary heavy ions (PHIs). We statistically investigate the effects of the IMF orientation on PHI precipitations toward the ionosphere based on observations by Mars Express (MEX). We identified 59 PHI precipitation events between July 2007 and September 2009. To estimate the IMF orientation without magnetometer that MEX does not carry, we used the velocity distribution of exospheric-origin pickup protons. We estimated the IMF orientation without its polarity for 10 events. The results show that the precipitations of PHIs tend to be observed around pole regions in the MSE (Mars-centered, solar electrical) coordinates determined from the solar wind electric field (Esw), in which the pole axis directs to the parallel or antiparallel to Esw due to the ambiguity in the IMF polarity determination. The observed precipitating PHIs are accelerated only up to a few keV. This feature may reflect the short distance from the picked-up region. For one of these 10 events, we estimated the IMF polarity by comparing the velocity distribution of exospheric-origin pickup protons observed by MEX with those obtained from statistical trajectory tracing simulations under two cases of possible IMF polarity conditions. The estimated polarity indicates that the PHI precipitation in this event is observed in the downward electric field hemisphere in MSE, where Esw points to Mars in the pole region.

  3. Effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement on heavy precipitation: The 21 September 2010 case over the Korean Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyunho; Baik, Jong-Jin

    2016-10-01

    The effects of turbulence-induced collision enhancement (TICE) on a heavy precipitation event that occurred on 21 September 2010 over the middle Korean Peninsula are examined. For this purpose, an updated bin microphysics scheme incorporating TICE for drop-drop and drop-graupel collisions is implemented into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The numerical simulation shows some differences in the strong precipitation system compared to the observations but generally captures well the important features of observed synoptic conditions, surface precipitation, and radar reflectivity. While the change in domain-averaged surface precipitation amount due to TICE is small and similar to that due to small initial perturbations, the spatial distribution of surface precipitation amount is somewhat altered due to TICE. The surface precipitation amount is increased due to TICE in the area where the largest surface precipitation occurred, but the effects of different flow realizations also contribute to the changes. TICE accelerates the coalescence between small cloud droplets, which induces a decrease in condensation and an increase in excess water vapor transported upward. This causes an increase in relative humidity with respect to ice at high altitudes, hence increasing the depositional growth of ice particles. Therefore, the ice mass increases due to TICE, and this increase induces the increases in riming and melting of ice particles. A series of these microphysical changes due to TICE are regarded as partially contributing to the increase in surface precipitation amount in some areas, hence inducing alterations in the spatial distribution of surface precipitation amount.

  4. The Role of Corsican Orography in a Localized Heavy Precipitation Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheffknecht, Phillip; Richard, Evelyne; Lambert, Dominique

    2015-04-01

    Despite the progress in forecasting mesoscale phenomena during the recent years, the distribution and intensity of heavy convective precipitation still pose a serious challenge to models and forecasters alike. The difficulties are even greater in the presence of complex orography and in maritime regions, where upstream conditions are not well known due to a lack of observations over the sea. Both of these conditions apply to the island of Corsica. In order to study the influence of an orographic obstacle on air flows and precipitation, we present a detailed case study of a localized heavy precipitation event of October 23 2012. The analysis is supported by observations, which were made during SOP 1 of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle of the Mediterranean, http://www.hymex.org/) project and in the frame of the CORSiCA observatory (http://www.obs-mip.fr/corsica). In addition, we present high resolution simulations of the event done with the Meso-NH model, to explore the capability of the model to capture the complex interaction between large scale flows and local phenomena such as flow splitting, orographic lift, and convective cells. The role of certain orographic features is tested by means of sensitivity tests with modified terrain. The localized character of the event of October 23 makes it an ideal candidate to investigate the interaction between multiple scales. While the large scale forcing was provided by a cut-off low around 60 km northeast of Menorca, the damage on Corsica was restricted to only a few towns in the south, where serious flooding occurred. Using simulation results and observations, we show that the event of 23 October 2012 was the result of flow splitting around Corsica interacting with the large scale mid and upper level wind. While the flow splitting supported convergence over the south of the island and was responsible for the stationarity of the convective system, the individual cells moved along with the mid and upper level winds. Using

  5. Sensitivity of a Cumulus Parameterization Scheme to Precipitation Production Representation and Its Impact on a Heavy Rain Event over Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Han, Ji-Young; Hong, Song-You; Sunny Lim, Kyo-Sun; Han, Jongil

    2016-06-01

    The sensitivity of a cumulus parameterization scheme (CPS) to a representation of precipitation production is examined. To do this, the parameter that determines the fraction of cloud condensate converted to precipitation in the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) convection scheme is modified following the results from a cloud-resolving simulation. While the original conversion parameter is assumed to be constant, the revised parameter includes a temperature dependency above the freezing level, whichleadstolessproductionoffrozenprecipitating condensate with height. The revised CPS has been evaluated for a heavy rainfall event over Korea as well as medium-range forecasts using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs). The inefficient conversion of cloud condensate to convective precipitation at colder temperatures generally leads to a decrease in pre-cipitation, especially in the category of heavy rainfall. The resultant increase of detrained moisture induces moistening and cooling at the top of clouds. A statistical evaluation of the medium-range forecasts with the revised precipitation conversion parameter shows an overall improvement of the forecast skill in precipitation and large-scale fields, indicating importance of more realistic representation of microphysical processes in CPSs.

  6. Removal of heavy metals by sulfide precipitation in the presence of complexing agents

    SciTech Connect

    Ku, Y.

    1986-01-01

    Heavy metal removals and particle size distributions were presented for both hydroxide precipitation and sulfide precipitation of zinc, cadmium, copper, and nickel in the presence of various complexing agents. Both batch and continuous experiments were performed for synthetic and actual metal-containing wastewaters. Metal concentrations complexing agent concentrations, sulfide dosages, pH levels of the solutions, and reaction or residence times were varied to determine the reaction kinetics. Sulfide precipitation always achieved lower residual metal concentrations than the corresponding hydroxide precipitation. The presence of strong complexing agents severely inhibited the removal of heavy metal by the precipitation process. Weak complexing agents exhibited little effect on the chemical equilibria for both hydroxide and sulfide precipitation systems. Weak complexing agents did affect the particle size distribution through a nucleation/growth inhibition, general forming smaller particles.

  7. Mathematical modeling and simulation of nanopore blocking by precipitation.

    PubMed

    Wolfram, M-T; Burger, M; Siwy, Z S

    2010-11-17

    High surface charges of polymer pore walls and applied electric fields can lead to the formation and subsequent dissolution of precipitates in nanopores. These precipitates block the pore, leading to current fluctuations. We present an extended Poisson-Nernst-Planck system which includes chemical reactions of precipitation and dissolution. We discuss the mathematical modeling and present 2D numerical simulations.

  8. Numerical Study of Urbanization Effect on 2012 Heavy Storm Precipitation in Beijing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Z.; Liu, S.; Xue, Y.; Oleson, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    In the past few decades, Great Beijing area has experienced rapid and widespread urbanization, which has significantly modified the land surface physical characteristics and affects urban regional climate.A single layer urban canopy module has been developed based on the Community Land Surface Model Urban Module (CLMU) with improvements: the energy balances on the five surface conditions are considered separately: building roof, sun side and shaded side wall, pervious and impervious land surface. A method to calculate sky view factor is developed based on the physically process while most urban models simply provide an empirical value. This method improves the solar and long wave radiation simulation on each surface; a new scheme for calculating the latent heat flux is applied on both wall and impervious land; the anthropogenic heat is considered in terms of industrial production, domestic wastes, vehicles and air condition. The urban effect on summer convective precipitation under the unstable atmospheric condition over Beijing was investigated by simulating a heavy storm event in July 21st 2012. In this storm, precipitation of averagely 164 mm was brought to Beijing within 6 hours, which is the record of past 60 years in the region. Numerical simulating experiment was set up by coupling Weather Research and Forecast (WRF)/SSiB3 model with the Modified CLMU (MCLMU). Several control cases without MCLMU were set up. The horizontal resolution in the inner domains was set to be 2 km. While all of the control results drastically underestimate the urban precipitation, the result of WRF/SSiB3/MCLMU is much closer to the observation. Sensitive experiments show that the existence of large area of impervious surfaces restrain the surface evaporation and latent heat flux in urban while the anthropogenic heat and enhanced sensible heat flux warm up the lower atmospheric layer and strengthen the vertical stratification instability, which is the key factor for storm while

  9. Diagnosis of moist vorticity and moist divergence for a heavy precipitation event in Southwestern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gang; Yang, Daoyong; Jiang, Xiaohua; Pan, Jing; Tan, Yanke

    2017-01-01

    A regional heavy precipitation event that occurred over Sichuan Province on 8-9 September 2015 is analyzed based on hourly observed precipitation data obtained from weather stations and NCEP FNL data. Two moist dynamic parameters, i.e., moist vorticity ( mζ) and moist divergence ( mδ), are used to diagnose this heavy precipitation event. Results show that the topography over southwestern China has a significant impact on the ability of these two parameters to diagnose precipitation. When the impact of topography is weak (i.e., low altitude), mζ cannot exactly depict the location of precipitation in the initial stage of the event. Then, as the precipitation develops, its ability to depict the location improves significantly. In particular, mζ coincides best with the location of precipitation during the peak stage of the event. Besides, the evolution of the mζ center shows high consistency with the evolution of the precipitation center. For mδ, although some false-alarm regions are apparent, it reflects the location of precipitation almost entirely during the precipitation event. However, the mδ center shows inconsistency with the precipitation center. These results suggest that both mζ and mδ have a significant ability to predict the location of precipitation. Moreover, mζ has a stronger ability than mδ in terms of predicting the variability of the precipitation center. However, when the impact of topography is strong (i.e., high altitude), both of these two moist dynamic parameters are unable to depict the location and center of precipitation during the entire precipitation event, suggesting their weak ability to predict precipitation over complex topography.

  10. Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, Buda; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Jiang, Tong

    2009-05-01

    Based on the daily observational precipitation data at 147 stations in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960-2005 and projected daily data of 79 grid cells from the ECHAM5/ MPI-OM model in the 20th and 21st century, time series of precipitation extremes which contain AM (Annual Maximum) and MI (Munger Index) are constructed. The distribution feature of precipitation extremes is analyzed based on the two index series. Three principal results were obtained, as stated in the sequel. (i) In the past half century, the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation and drought events was higher in the mid-lower Yangtze than in the upper Yangtze reaches. Although the ECHAM5 model still can’t capture the precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin satisfactorily, spatial pattern of the observed and the simulated precipitation extremes are much similar to each other. (ii) For quantifying the characteristics of extremely high and extremely low precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, four probability distributions are used, namely: General Extreme Value (GEV), General Pareto (GPA), General Logistic (GLO), and Wakeby (WAK). It was found that WAK can adequately describe the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observational and projected data. (iii) Return period of precipitation extremes show spatially different changes under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The 50-year heavy precipitation and drought events from simulated data during 1951-2000 will become more frequent, with return period below 25 years, for the most mid-lower Yangtze region in 2001-2050. The changing character of return periods of precipitation extremes should be taken into account for the hydrological design and future water resources management.

  11. Statistical correction of central Southwest Asia winter precipitation simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Barlow, Mathew; Lyon, Bradfield

    2003-10-01

    Severe drought is a notable feature of the hydrology of central Southwest (CSW) Asia. Although studies have linked the region's interannual precipitation variability to remote forcings that include East Asia jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection, atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) forced by observed sea-surface temperatures demonstrate little skill in simulating interannual precipitation variability in this region. Here, statistical methods of correcting systematic errors in GCM simulations of CSW Asia precipitation are investigated. Canonical correlation analysis is used to identify model fields related to observed precipitation anomaly patterns. These relationships are then used to predict observed precipitation anomalies. This approach is applied to the ECHAM 4.5 GCM using regional precipitation, upper-level winds and western Pacific tropical precipitation as predictors of observed CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. The statistical corrections improve the GCM precipitation simulations, resulting in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated skill in simulating CSW Asia precipitation anomalies. Applying the procedure to hindcasts with persisted sea-surface temperatures gives lower, but statistically significant, precipitation correlations in the region along the Hindu Kush mountain range.

  12. Numerical simulations of significant orographic precipitation in Madeira island

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Couto, Flavio Tiago; Ducrocq, Véronique; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria João

    2016-03-01

    High-resolution simulations of high precipitation events with the MESO-NH model are presented, and also used to verify that increasing horizontal resolution in zones of complex orography, such as in Madeira island, improve the simulation of the spatial distribution and total precipitation. The simulations succeeded in reproducing the general structure of the cloudy systems over the ocean in the four periods considered of significant accumulated precipitation. The accumulated precipitation over the Madeira was better represented with the 0.5 km horizontal resolution and occurred under four distinct synoptic situations. Different spatial patterns of the rainfall distribution over the Madeira have been identified.

  13. Final wash precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs

    SciTech Connect

    Marek, J.C.

    1992-05-15

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is scheduled to start non-radioactive process operation in September, 1992. The Cold Chemical Runs will demonstrate acceptable process operation and provide data required to satisfy the Waste Compliance Plan. Five basic sludge simulants will be required for these tests. Two basic precipitate simulants will be needed to operate the Salt Processing Cell with and without mercury in the precipitate feed. Precipitate feed simulant specifications for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs are revised in this report. All previous specifications of precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs (CCRs) are superceded by this document. The revision is needed to (1) eliminate use of hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) in the precipitate process operation, (2) simulate the projected composition of the precipitate feed to DWPF produced by final washing to reduce the nitrite concentration to [le] 0.01M without washing the simulated feed, (3) delete organic trim chemical additions to the precipitate feed and (4) specify an additive to prevent foaming of the precipitate. Two specifications are provided to operate the Salt Processing Cell with mercury (Tests 5 6) and without mercury (Tests 1--4) in the precipitate feed.

  14. Final wash precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs

    SciTech Connect

    Marek, J.C.

    1992-05-15

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) is scheduled to start non-radioactive process operation in September, 1992. The Cold Chemical Runs will demonstrate acceptable process operation and provide data required to satisfy the Waste Compliance Plan. Five basic sludge simulants will be required for these tests. Two basic precipitate simulants will be needed to operate the Salt Processing Cell with and without mercury in the precipitate feed. Precipitate feed simulant specifications for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs are revised in this report. All previous specifications of precipitate feed simulants for DWPF Cold Chemical Runs (CCRs) are superceded by this document. The revision is needed to (1) eliminate use of hydroxylamine nitrate (HAN) in the precipitate process operation, (2) simulate the projected composition of the precipitate feed to DWPF produced by final washing to reduce the nitrite concentration to {le} 0.01M without washing the simulated feed, (3) delete organic trim chemical additions to the precipitate feed and (4) specify an additive to prevent foaming of the precipitate. Two specifications are provided to operate the Salt Processing Cell with mercury (Tests 5&6) and without mercury (Tests 1--4) in the precipitate feed.

  15. Precipitation top heights of orographic heavy rainfall in the Asian monsoon regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shige, Shoichi; Kummerow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the dominant view that heavy rainfall results from deep clouds, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) frequently observed heavy, but shallow orographic rainfall over coastal mountain ranges of the Asian monsoon regions. The low-level horizontal winds, leading to topographic forced upward motion on the windward slopes, are dynamically important for its occurrence. This paper focuses on the thermodynamic character of the atmospheric environment associated with shallow orographic heavy rainfall. The precipitation-top heights of orographic heavy rainfall generally decrease with low- and mid-level relative humidity especially for coastal mesoscale mountain ranges during summer monsoon. This differs from what has been observed for convection over the tropical ocean in previous studies, but is consistent with abundant shallow convection during the moist summer monsoon season. In contrast, the precipitation-top heights over Annam Cordillera during the transition phase from boreal summer to winter monsoon seasons, facing the prevailing northeasterly, increase with low-level and mid-level relative humidity, demonstrating that convection depth is not a simple function of humidity. The precipitation-top heights of orographic heavy rainfall decrease with the low-level stability for all regions considered in this study as well as Annam Cordillera during the transition phase from boreal summer to winter monsoon seasons. Therefore, low-level static stability, which inhibits cloud growth and promotes cloud detrainment, is inferred to be an equally important parameter in determining the precipitation-top heights.

  16. Cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the removal of heavy metal mixtures from aqueous solutions

    PubMed Central

    Grimshaw, Pengpeng; Calo, Joseph M.; Hradil, George

    2011-01-01

    The description and operation of a novel cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the simultaneous removal of mixtures of heavy metals from aqueous solutions are presented. CEP combines the advantages of electrowinning in a spouted particulate electrode (SPE) with that of chemical precipitation and redissolution, to remove heavy metals at low concentrations as solid metal deposits on particulate cathode particles without exporting toxic metal precipitate sludges from the process. The overall result is very large volume reduction of the heavy metal contaminants as a solid metal deposit on particles that can either be safely discarded as such, or further processed to recover particular metals. The performance of this system is demonstrated with data on the removal of mixtures of copper, nickel, and cadmium from aqueous solutions. PMID:22102792

  17. Cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the removal of heavy metal mixtures from aqueous solutions.

    PubMed

    Grimshaw, Pengpeng; Calo, Joseph M; Hradil, George

    2011-11-15

    The description and operation of a novel cyclic electrowinning/precipitation (CEP) system for the simultaneous removal of mixtures of heavy metals from aqueous solutions are presented. CEP combines the advantages of electrowinning in a spouted particulate electrode (SPE) with that of chemical precipitation and redissolution, to remove heavy metals at low concentrations as solid metal deposits on particulate cathode particles without exporting toxic metal precipitate sludges from the process. The overall result is very large volume reduction of the heavy metal contaminants as a solid metal deposit on particles that can either be safely discarded as such, or further processed to recover particular metals. The performance of this system is demonstrated with data on the removal of mixtures of copper, nickel, and cadmium from aqueous solutions.

  18. Evaluation of precipitation over an oceanic region of Japan in convection-permitting regional climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murata, Akihiko; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Kawase, Hiroaki; Nosaka, Masaya

    2017-03-01

    We investigated the performance of a convection-permitting regional climate model with respect to precipitation in the present climate around the southwestern oceanic region of Japan. The effects of explicit representation of convective processes without cumulus parameterization can be properly estimated by using a model domain without complex topography or convoluted coastlines. The amounts of annual and monthly precipitation and the frequencies of daily and hourly precipitation were well reproduced by the convection-permitting model with a 2-km grid spacing, and its performance was better than that of a model with a coarser mesh. In particular, the frequencies of hourly precipitation in the convection-permitting simulation matched the observed frequencies for precipitation intensities below 20 mm h-1. Above intensities of 20 mm h-1, however, the convection-permitting model tended to overestimate the frequency of hourly precipitation. To explore the mechanism of this overestimation of heavy hourly precipitation, the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to the horizontal resolution was tested by changing the horizontal grid spacing of the model from 2 to 4 km and then 1.5 km. The results showed that the overestimation was increased when the horizontal resolution was coarser, owing to spurious grid-scale precipitation, which causes heavy precipitation to be highly concentrated in a single grid. This spurious grid-scale precipitation may be caused by insufficient representation of convective downdrafts in convection-permitting simulations by models with coarser resolutions.

  19. The behaviour of pharmaceuticals and heavy metals during struvite precipitation in urine.

    PubMed

    Ronteltap, Mariska; Maurer, Max; Gujer, Willi

    2007-05-01

    Separating urine from wastewater at the source reduces the costs of extensive wastewater treatment. Recovering the nutrients from urine and reusing them for agricultural purposes adds resource saving to the benefits. Phosphate can be recovered in the form of struvite (magnesium ammonium phosphate). In this paper, the behaviour of pharmaceuticals and heavy metals during the precipitation of struvite in urine is studied. When precipitating struvite in urine spiked with hormones and non-ionic, acidic and basic pharmaceuticals, the hormones and pharmaceuticals remain in solution for more than 98%. For heavy metals, initial experiments were performed to study metal solubility in urine. Solubility is shown to be affected by the chemical conditions of stored and therefore hydrolysed urine. Thermodynamic modelling reveals low or very low equilibrium solute concentrations for cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Experiments confirmed Cd, Cu and Pb carbonate and hydroxide precipitation upon metal addition in stored urine with a reaction half-life of ca. 7 days. For all metals considered, the maximum specific metal concentrations per gram phosphate or nitrogen showed to be typically several orders of magnitudes lower in urine than in commercially available fertilizers and manure. Heavy metals in struvite precipitated from normal stored urine could not be detected. Phosphate recovery from urine over struvite precipitation is shown to render a product free from most organic micropollutants and containing only a fraction of the already low amounts of heavy metals in urine.

  20. Evaluation of global fine-resolution precipitation products and their uncertainty quantification in ensemble discharge simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, W.; Zhang, C.; Fu, G.; Sweetapple, C.; Zhou, H.

    2016-02-01

    The applicability of six fine-resolution precipitation products, including precipitation radar, infrared, microwave and gauge-based products, using different precipitation computation recipes, is evaluated using statistical and hydrological methods in northeastern China. In addition, a framework quantifying uncertainty contributions of precipitation products, hydrological models, and their interactions to uncertainties in ensemble discharges is proposed. The investigated precipitation products are Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products (TRMM3B42 and TRMM3B42RT), Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)/Noah, Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN), and a Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP-MVK+) product. Two hydrological models of different complexities, i.e. a water and energy budget-based distributed hydrological model and a physically based semi-distributed hydrological model, are employed to investigate the influence of hydrological models on simulated discharges. Results show APHRODITE has high accuracy at a monthly scale compared with other products, and GSMAP-MVK+ shows huge advantage and is better than TRMM3B42 in relative bias (RB), Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC), false alarm ratio, and critical success index. These findings could be very useful for validation, refinement, and future development of satellite-based products (e.g. NASA Global Precipitation Measurement). Although large uncertainty exists in heavy precipitation, hydrological models contribute most of the uncertainty in extreme discharges. Interactions between precipitation products and hydrological models can have the similar magnitude of contribution to discharge uncertainty as the hydrological models. A

  1. Scaling and Intensification of Extreme Precipitation in High-Resolution Climate Change Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ban, Nikolina; Leutwyler, David; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    Climate change projections of extreme precipitation are of great interest due to hydrological impacts such as droughts, floods, erosion, landslides and debris flows. Despite the trend towards dryer conditions over Europe, many climate simulations project increases of heavy precipitation events, while some theoretical studies have raised the possibility of dramatic increases in hourly events (by up to 14% per degree warming). However, conventional climate models are not suited to assess short-term heavy events due to the need to parameterize deep convection. High-resolution climate models with kilometer-scale grid spacing at which parameterization of convection can be switched off, significantly improve the simulation of heavy precipitation and can alter the climate change signal (e.g., Ban et al., 2015). Here we present decade-long high-resolution climate change simulations at horizontal resolution of 2.2 km over Europe on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 grid points. These simulations have become feasible with a new version of the COSMO model that runs entirely on Graphics Processing Units. We compare a present-day climate simulation, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (Leutwyler at al., 2016), with a Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation The PGW simulation is driven by the slowly evolving mean seasonal cycle of the climate changes (derived from the CMIP5 model), superimposed on the ERA-Interim reanalysis. With this approach, the resulting changes are due to large scale warming of the atmosphere and due to slow-varying circulation changes. We will present the differences in climate change signal between conventional and high-resolution climate models, and discuss the thermodynamic effects on intensification of extreme precipitation. Ban N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär, 2015: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys. Res. Lett., 42 (4), 1165-1172 Leutwyler, D., D. Lüthi, N. Ban, O. Fuhrer and C

  2. Fungi in a heavy metal precipitating stream in the Mansfeld mining district, Germany.

    PubMed

    Ehrman, James M; Bärlocher, Felix; Wennrich, Rainer; Krauss, Gerd-Joachim; Krauss, Gudrun

    2008-01-25

    Fungal growth on alder leaves was studied in two heavy metal polluted streams in central Germany. The aim of the study was to examine previously observed differences in leaf decomposition rates, heavy metal precipitation and fungal involvement in these processes at the microscopic level. Ergosterol analyses indicated that neither habitat was optimal for fungi, but leaves exposed at the less polluted site (H8) decomposed rapidly and were colonized externally and internally by fungi and other microorganisms. Leaves exposed at the more polluted site (H4) decomposed very slowly and fungal colonization was restricted to external surfaces. An amorphous organic layer, deposited within 24 h of exposure, quickly became covered with a pale blue-green crystalline deposit (zincowoodwardite) with significant amounts of Al, S, Cu and Zn, determined by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis of the precipitate revealed a branching arrangement of the precipitated particles caused by the presence of fungal hyphae growing on the surface. Hyphae that were not disturbed by handling were usually completely encased in the precipitate, but hyphae did not contain EDS-detectable amounts of precipitate metals. Elemental analysis using inductively coupled plasma (ICP) atomic emission spectrometry and ICP mass spectrometry revealed continuing accumulation of Zn, Cu and several other metals/metalloids on and in leaves. The formation of metal precipitates on various artificial substrates at site H4 was much reduced compared to leaves, which we attribute to the absence of fungal colonization on the artificial substrates. We could not determine whether fungi accelerate the precipitation of heavy metals at site H4, but mycelial growth on leaves continues to create new surfaces and therefore thicker layers of precipitate on leaves compared to artificial substrates.

  3. The determination of observed atmospheric differences between heavy and light precipitation events in New Jersey, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harnack, Robert; Apffel, Kirk; Georgescu, Matei; Baines, Shaun

    2001-10-01

    The climatology of a limited sample of heavy precipitation events occurring in New Jersey, USA, is studied via statistical averaging and frequency histograms of environmental conditions at the event location. Also, the spatial distribution of related circulation features is examined. In addition, statistical differences between conditions accompanying the heavy (HEAVY) and a selected sample of light (LIGHT) precipitation events is determined. A large number of surface, standard level, stability and wind shear variables are employed as well as synoptic-scale circulation features. Variables that are identified as statistically significant, after a Student's t-test is applied to a sample mean and standard deviation are listed by season. In addition, scatter plot and composite maps are produced to illustrate conditions concurrent with the onset of heavy precipitation.In general, there are only slight differences between values obtained for the HEAVY sample and the LIGHT sample. However, the differences are large enough for some variables in some seasons that the forecaster may be able to use these results to advantage. In particular: (i) a significantly warmer and moister atmosphere at selected levels is indicated for the HEAVY sample for Autumn and Winter but not for Spring and Summer; (ii) upper-tropospheric divergence is significantly greater in all seasons except Summer; and (iii) wind shear is significantly larger in all seasons except Summer.There is much similarity in the mean position of examined synoptic features such as troughs, vorticity maxima, jet axes and jet streaks for the two samples. However, the amplitude of circulation in the troposphere is much larger for the HEAVY sample, especially in the lower troposphere. In addition, the 850-hPa wind maximum axis (low-level jet indication) is much more often oriented from south to north and located within 300 km of the event location for the HEAVY cases. There was surprisingly no significant sample difference

  4. Sources of Sahel precipitation for simulated drought and rainy seasons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Koster, Randal D.

    1989-01-01

    The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source regions is 'tagged', allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June-July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this case study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to Sahelian precipitation in the'rainy' simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.

  5. Sources of Sahel precipitation for simulated drought and rainy seasons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Druyan, Leonard M.; Koster, Randal D.

    1989-01-01

    The sources of sub-Saharan precipitation are studied using diagnostic procedures integrated into the code of the GISS climate model. Water vapor evaporating from defined source regions is 'tagged', allowing the determination of the relative contributions of each evaporative source to the simulated July rainfall in the Sahel. Two June-July simulations are studied to compare the moisture sources, moisture convergence patterns and the spatial variations of precipitation for rainy and drought conditions. Results for this case study indicate that patterns of moisture convergence and divergence over northern Africa had a stronger influence on model rainfall over the sub-Sahara than did evaporation rates over the adjacent oceans or moisture advection from ocean to continent. While local continental evaporation contributed significant amounts of water to Sahelian precipitation in the'rainy' simulation, moisture from the Indian Ocean did not precipitate over the Sahel in either case.

  6. Heavy precipitation in the southwest of Iran: association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and synoptic scale analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jafar Nazemosadat, M.; Shahgholian, K.

    2017-01-01

    Some important characteristics of the November-April heavy precipitation in southwestern parts of Iran and their linkages to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) were assessed for the period of 1975-2011. Daily precipitation data in nine meteorological stations spread in various parts of the study area and the corresponding MJO indices were analyzed. For each station, precipitation data were sorted in descending order and those values that fell within 5% of the highest records were categorized as the heavy precipitation. Besides this, the 10% threshold was also analyzed as an axillary assessment. The considered heavy precipitation data (5% threshold) accounted from about 26-35% of total annual precipitation. About half of the heavy precipitation occurred during December-January period and the other half distributed within the months of March, February, November and April by about 17, 14, 13and 6%, respectively. The highest frequency of heavy precipitation was related to the MJO phase 8. After this, the more frequent precipitation events were respectively associated to the phases 2, 7, 1, 6, 5 and 4 of the MJO. For the phases 1, 2, 7 and 8 frequency of the heavy precipitation statistically increased when the MJO amplitude was greater than unity. In contrast, for phases 4 and 5, heavy precipitation was generally linked to the spells that the amplitude size was lower than unity. Formation of a strong north-south oriented cold front mainly in Saudi Arabia and west-east oriented warm fronts in the southwest of Iran were realized as the key elements for initiating heavy precipitation over the study area. Although development of the Mediterranean-based cyclonic circulation is essential for the formation of these fronts, moisture transport mostly originates from northern parts of the Arabian Sea, southern parts of the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.

  7. Coverage probability of bootstrap confidence intervals in heavy-tailed frequency models, with application to precipitation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kyselý, Jan

    2010-08-01

    Bootstrap, a technique for determining the accuracy of statistics, is a tool widely used in climatological and hydrological applications. The paper compares coverage probabilities of confidence intervals of high quantiles (5- to 200-year return values) constructed by the nonparametric and parametric bootstrap in frequency analysis of heavy-tailed data, typical for maxima of precipitation amounts. The simulation experiments are based on a wide range of models used for precipitation extremes (generalized extreme value, generalized Pareto, generalized logistic, and mixed distributions). The coverage probability of the confidence intervals is quantified for several sample sizes ( n = 20, 40, 60, and 100) and tail behaviors. We show that both bootstrap methods underestimate the width of the confidence intervals but that the parametric bootstrap is clearly superior to the nonparametric one. Even a misspecification of the parametric model—often unavoidable in practice—does not prevent the parametric bootstrap from performing better in most cases. A tendency to narrower confidence intervals from the nonparametric than parametric bootstrap is demonstrated in the application to high quantiles of distributions of observed maxima of 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts; the differences increase with the return level. The results show that estimation of uncertainty based on nonparametric bootstrap is highly unreliable, especially for small and moderate sample sizes and for very heavy-tailed data.

  8. The effect of weak chelating agents on the removal of heavy metals by precipitation processes

    SciTech Connect

    Ku, Y.; Peters, W.

    1986-01-01

    Particle size distributions and heavy metal removals are presented for hydroxide precipitation and sulfide precipitation of zinc and cadmium in the presence of several weak complexing agents, namely citrate, tartrate, and ammonia. The pH was held constant at pH 10.0 in these experiments. The presence of these weak complexing agents had little effect on the chemical equilibrium for both the hydroxide and sulfide systems due to their weak complexing ability with metal ions. The presence of the complexing agents does affect the particle size distribution, generally forming smaller particles. Particle size distributions are presented for the Zn(OH)/sub 2/, ZnS, Cd(OH)/sub 2/, and CdS systems (at pH 10.0) in the presence of the chelating agents citrate, tartrate, and ammonia. Sulfide precipitation exhibits a better particle size distribution and settling characteristics than the corresponding metal hydroxide precipitation for both zinc and cadmium.

  9. Precipitation of heavy metals in produced water: influence on contaminant transport and toxicity.

    PubMed

    Azetsu-Scott, Kumiko; Yeats, Phil; Wohlgeschaffen, Gary; Dalziel, John; Niven, Sherry; Lee, Kenneth

    2007-03-01

    Produced water undergoes changes in its physical chemistry including precipitation of heavy metals after being discharged and mixed with ambient seawater. Potential impacts of the precipitation of heavy metals on their transport and toxicity were studied using samples from offshore oil production sites on the Scotian Shelf off eastern Canada. Concentrations of aluminum, cadmium, chromium, cobalt, copper, iron, lead, manganese, nickel and zinc were measured in total, particulate and dissolved fractions together with Microtox tests for assessment of toxicity. Heavy metals in produced water were transformed from dissolved to particulate phase in a period of hours under oxygenated conditions, and aggregated to larger particles that settle rapidly (>100 m/day) over a few days. In addition, there was production of buoyant particles comprised of heavy metal precipitates sequestered onto oil droplets that were transported to the surface. The particulate fraction was generally more toxic than the dissolved fraction. This was evident at the mixing interface between produced water and seawater where elevated particulate and toxicity levels were observed. Laboratory studies suggest an increase in the toxicity of discharged produced water over time. Time-series experiments showed a sustained toxic response for more than a week following the oxidation of freshly discharged produced water that initially elicited little or no toxic response in the Microtox test. Chemical processes identified in this study, namely precipitation of heavy metals and consequent settling and rising fluxes of particles, will influence the toxicity, the fate and the transport of potential contaminants in the produced water. Therefore, these processes need to be considered in assessment of the environmental impact associated with offshore oil and gas operations.

  10. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the United States coastal oceans

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2016-06-01

    This study evaluates the effects of major cumulus parameterization closures on summer precipitation simulations over the U.S. Atlantic Coasts and Gulf of Mexico. A series of mesoscale regional climate model simulations using an Ensemble Cumulus Parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation are conducted and compared to determine the systematic errors and relative performances of individual and combined closures in capturing precipitation spatiotemporal variations. The results show that closure algorithms largely affect precipitation's geographic distribution, frequency and intensity, and diurnal cycle. The quasi-equilibrium and total instability adjustment closures simulate widespread wet biases, while the instability tendency closure produces systematic dry biases. Two closure algorithms based on the average vertical velocity at the cloud base and column moisture convergence complementarily reproduce the observed precipitation pattern and amount, and capture the frequency of heavy rainfall events better than other closures. In contrast, the instability tendency closures are better at capturing the diurnal phase but yield much larger deficits in amount. Therefore, cloud base vertical velocity and moisture convergence may be the primary factors controlling precipitation seasonal mean and daily variation, while the instability tendency may play a critical role in regulating the diurnal cycle phase.

  11. Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

    SciTech Connect

    O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik; Rübel, Oliver; Byna, Suren; Gu, Junmin; Krishnan, Hari; Ullrich, Paul A.

    2016-06-19

    This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.

  12. Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

    DOE PAGES

    O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik; ...

    2016-06-19

    This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are “realistic”; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental designmore » has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.« less

  13. Resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, Travis A.; Collins, William D.; Kashinath, Karthik; Rübel, Oliver; Byna, Suren; Gu, Junmin; Krishnan, Hari; Ullrich, Paul A.

    2016-06-01

    Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are "realistic"; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al., which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.

  14. Supporting communities in reducing their vulnerability against impacts of short-term heavy precipitation events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoy, Andreas; Hübener, Heike

    2017-04-01

    Potential flood areas are known and charted for most large and many small rivers in Europe. However, often no appropriate knowledge exists about the impacts of short-term intense precipitation (of mostly convective origin, occurring predominantly during the warm season) on small tributaries or on areas aside from waterways. Communities are often not sensitised and prepared for the massive surface runoff and subsequent flooding following massive downpours. Risks are particularly large in valley locations, where the water is canalised and immense flash floods may occur. Yet, each event has a different impact. Crucial factors determining these impacts are soil type, pre-event soil moisture, surface sealing, vegetation structure, slope gradients and many others. This contribution presents a framework to empower local communities - located within the central-German county of Hesse - to reduce their vulnerability against short-term intense precipitation events. The project consists of a data analysis part, in which information on observed heavy precipitation, (water related) disaster management actions of the local fire brigades, erosion risk maps, and further aspects are mapped to an integrated county-wide "heavy precipitation reference map" (german: "Starkregenhinweiskarte"). Another part of the project deals with the usability issue of heavy precipitation data in hydrological engineering. The goal of this part is to improve the use of the best available data and methods to assess - in very high resolution - areas at risk of flooding in case of such an event. This project part will culminate in exemplary "heavy precipitation hazard risk maps" (german: "Starkregengefahrenkarte") for two local communities in Hesse. In this presentation we will focus on ways how to communicate highly complex subject-specific scientific results of different sources to public decision makers in mostly small to medium-sized communities. Concrete challenges are to efficiently a) increase the

  15. Regional Extreme Monthly Precipitation Simulated by NARCCAP RCMs

    SciTech Connect

    Gutowski, William; Arritt, R.; Kawazoe, Sho; Flory, Dave; Takle, Eugene S.; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Jones, Richard; Laprise, Rene; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Mearns, L. O.; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran; Nunes, A.; Qian, Yun; Roads, John O.; Sloan, Lisa; Snyder, Mark A.

    2010-12-15

    We analyze the ability of the NARCCAP ensemble of regional climate models to simulate extreme monthly precipitation and its supporting circulation for regions of North America, comparing 18 years of simulations driven by the NCEP-DOE reanalysis with observations. Analysis focuses the wettest 10% of months during the cold half of the year (October-March), when we assume that resolved synoptic circulation governs precipitation. For a coastal California region, the models replicate well the monthly frequency of extremes, the amount of extreme precipitation and the 500 hPa circulation anomaly associated with the extremes. For an Upper Mississippi River Basin region, the models agree with observations in both monthly frequency and magnitude, though not as closely as for coastal California. In addition, simulated circulation anomalies for extreme months are similar to those in observations. Model success appears to result in part from the substantial seasonal variation of extremes, which the models capture well.

  16. Simulation of Orographically-Driven Precipitation in Southern California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carpenter, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2008-12-01

    The proximity of the Pacific Ocean to the Transverse and Peninsular Mountain Ranges of coastal Southern California may lead to significant, orographically-enhanced precipitation in the region. With abundant moisture, such as evidenced in Pineapple Express events or atmospheric rivers, this precipitation may lead to other hydrologic hazards as flash flooding, landslides or debris flows. Available precipitation observation networks are relatively sparse in the mountainous regions and often do not capture the spatial variation of these events with high resolution. This study aims to simulate the topographically-driven precipitation over Southern California with high spatial resolution using a simplified orographic precipitation model. The model employs potential theory flow to estimate steady state three-dimensional wind fields for given free stream velocity forcing winds, atmospheric moisture advection, and cloud and precipitation microphysics proposed by Kessler (1969). The advantage of this modeling set-up is the computational efficiency as compared to regional mesoscale models such as the MM5. For this application, the Southern California region, comprised of the counties of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego, and portions of San Bernardino and Riverside counties, are modeled at a 3-km resolution. The orographic precipitation model is forced by free stream wind velocities given by the 700mb winds from the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset. Atmospheric moisture initial conditions are defined also by the NCEP Reanalysis I dataset, and updated 4x- daily with the available 6-hourly NCEP Reanalysis forcing. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated precipitation to observations for over a variety of spatial scales and over the historical wet season periods from October 2000 to April 2005. The comparison is made over several performance measurements including (a) the occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation, (b) overall bias and correlation, (c

  17. Investigation of Aerosol Indirect Effects on Simulated Flash-flood Heavy Rainfall over Korea

    SciTech Connect

    Lim, Kyo-Sun; Hong, Songyou

    2012-11-01

    This study investigates aerosol indirect effects on the development of heavy rainfall near Seoul, South Korea, on 12 July 2006, focusing on precipitation amount. The impact of the aerosol concentration on simulated precipitation is evaluated by varying the initial cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentration in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme. The simulations are performed under clean, semi-polluted, and polluted conditions. Detailed analysis of the physical processes that are responsible for surface precipitation, including moisture and cloud microphysical budgets shows enhanced ice-phase processes to be the primary driver of increased surface precipitation under the semi-polluted condition. Under the polluted condition, suppressed autoconversion and the enhanced evaporation of rain cause surface precipitation to decrease. To investigate the role of environmental conditions on precipitation response under different aerosol number concentrations, a set of sensitivity experiments are conducted with a 5 % decrease in relative humidity at the initial time, relative to the base simulations. Results show ice-phase processes having small sensitivity to CCN number concentration, compared with the base simulations. Surface precipitation responds differently to CCN number concentration under the lower humidity initial condition, being greatest under the clean condition, followed by the semi-polluted and polluted conditions.

  18. Association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks in four Nordic countries, 1992-2012.

    PubMed

    Guzman Herrador, Bernardo; de Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; Carlander, Anneli; Ethelberg, Steen; Hygen, Hans Olav; Kuusi, Markku; Lund, Vidar; Löfdahl, Margareta; MacDonald, Emily; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon; Schönning, Caroline; Sudre, Bertrand; Trönnberg, Linda; Vold, Line; Semenza, Jan C; Nygård, Karin

    2016-12-01

    We conducted a matched case-control study to examine the association between heavy precipitation events and waterborne outbreaks (WBOs) by linking epidemiological registries and meteorological data between 1992 and 2012 in four Nordic countries. Heavy precipitation events were defined by above average (exceedance) daily rainfall during the preceding weeks using local references. We performed conditional logistic regression using the four previous years as the controls. Among WBOs with known onset date (n = 89), exceedance rainfall on two or more days was associated with occurrence of outbreak, OR = 3.06 (95% CI 1.38-6.78), compared to zero exceedance days. Stratified analyses revealed a significant association with single household water supplies, ground water as source and for outbreaks occurring during spring and summer. These findings were reproduced in analyses including all WBOs with known outbreak month (n = 186). The vulnerability of single households to WBOs associated with heavy precipitation events should be communicated to homeowners and implemented into future policy planning to reduce the risk of waterborne illness.

  19. Uncertainties on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China from the CMIP5 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Dan-Qing; Zhu, Jian; Zhang, Yao-Cun; Huang, An-Ning

    2013-08-01

    on 14 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), uncertainty on the simulated summer precipitation over Eastern China is analyzed by investigating the intercomparison between individual model and multimodel ensemble (MME). Generally, MME has the ability in reproducing summer precipitation over Eastern China. However, large model spread exists among models in both climatology and interannual variation. The possible reason for the large model spread lies in the uncertainties on simulating large-scale circulations, e.g., East Asian subtropical westerly jet, western Pacific subtropical high, and East Asian summer monsoon. To investigate uncertainties in different regions, Eastern China is divided to four subregions: South China (SC), Yangtze-Huaihe River Basin (YHRB), North China (NC), and Northeast China (NEC). The annual cycle of regional mean precipitation from 14 CMIP5 models indicates that the model spread approaches maximum in early summer over SC and YHRB and in middle summer over NC and NEC. Uncertainties generally decrease from south to north, with the most sensitive region of SC. For different-class precipitation, the uncertainties of 14 models are small in relatively weak rain, but large in heavy and nonrainfall for all the four regions. We propose two possible reasons for the large uncertainties: different partitioning of stratiform/convective precipitation and horizontal resolutions.

  20. Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, E. M.; Knutti, R.

    2015-06-01

    Climate change includes not only changes in mean climate but also in weather extremes. For a few prominent heatwaves and heavy precipitation events a human contribution to their occurrence has been demonstrated. Here we apply a similar framework but estimate what fraction of all globally occurring heavy precipitation and hot extremes is attributable to warming. We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85 °C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence. For 2 °C of warming the fraction of precipitation extremes attributable to human influence rises to about 40%. Likewise, today about 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming. It is the most rare and extreme events for which the largest fraction is anthropogenic, and that contribution increases nonlinearly with further warming. The approach introduced here is robust owing to its global perspective, less sensitive to model biases than alternative methods and informative for mitigation policy, and thereby complementary to single-event attribution. Combined with information on vulnerability and exposure, it serves as a scientific basis for assessment of global risk from extreme weather, the discussion of mitigation targets, and liability considerations.

  1. Partitioning into hazard subregions for regional peaks-over-threshold modeling of heavy precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carreau, J.; Naveau, P.; Neppel, L.

    2017-05-01

    The French Mediterranean is subject to intense precipitation events occurring mostly in autumn. These can potentially cause flash floods, the main natural danger in the area. The distribution of these events follows specific spatial patterns, i.e., some sites are more likely to be affected than others. The peaks-over-threshold approach consists in modeling extremes, such as heavy precipitation, by the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The shape parameter of the GP controls the probability of extreme events and can be related to the hazard level of a given site. When interpolating across a region, the shape parameter should reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the probability of heavy precipitation. However, the shape parameter estimators have high uncertainty which might hide the underlying spatial variability. As a compromise, we choose to let the shape parameter vary in a moderate fashion. More precisely, we assume that the region of interest can be partitioned into subregions with constant hazard level. We formalize the model as a conditional mixture of GP distributions. We develop a two-step inference strategy based on probability weighted moments and put forward a cross-validation procedure to select the number of subregions. A synthetic data study reveals that the inference strategy is consistent and not very sensitive to the selected number of subregions. An application on daily precipitation data from the French Mediterranean shows that the conditional mixture of GPs outperforms two interpolation approaches (with constant or smoothly varying shape parameter).

  2. Approximate Bayesian computation methods for daily spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, Branden; Kleiber, William

    2017-04-01

    Stochastic precipitation generators (SPGs) produce synthetic precipitation data and are frequently used to generate inputs for physical models throughout many scientific disciplines. Especially for large data sets, statistical parameter estimation is difficult due to the high dimensionality of the likelihood function. We propose techniques to estimate SPG parameters for spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence based on an emerging set of methods called Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which bypass the evaluation of a likelihood function. Our statistical model employs a thresholded Gaussian process that reduces to a probit regression at single sites. We identify appropriate ABC penalization metrics for our model parameters to produce simulations whose statistical characteristics closely resemble those of the observations. Spell length metrics are appropriate for single sites, while a variogram-based metric is proposed for spatial simulations. We present numerical case studies at sites in Colorado and Iowa where the estimated statistical model adequately reproduces local and domain statistics.

  3. Characteristics of sub-daily precipitation extremes in observed data and regional climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan; Hanel, Martin

    2017-03-01

    The study compares characteristics of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes in the Czech Republic with those simulated by Hadley Centre Regional Model version 3 (HadRM3) and Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model version 4 (RCA4) regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalyses and examines diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation and their dependence on intensity and surface temperature. The observed warm-season (May-September) maxima of short-duration (1, 2 and 3 h) amounts show one diurnal peak in the afternoon, which is simulated reasonably well by RCA4, although the peak occurs too early in the model. HadRM3 provides an unrealistic diurnal cycle with a nighttime peak and an afternoon minimum coinciding with the observed maximum for all three ensemble members, which suggests that convection is not captured realistically. Distorted relationships of the diurnal cycles of hourly precipitation to daily maximum temperature in HadRM3 further evidence that underlying physical mechanisms are misrepresented in this RCM. Goodness-of-fit tests indicate that generalised extreme value distribution is an applicable model for both observed and RCM-simulated precipitation maxima. However, the RCMs are not able to capture the range of the shape parameter estimates of distributions of short-duration precipitation maxima realistically, leading to either too many (nearly all for HadRM3) or too few (RCA4) grid boxes in which the shape parameter corresponds to a heavy tail. This means that the distributions of maxima of sub-daily amounts are distorted in the RCM-simulated data and do not match reality well. Therefore, projected changes of sub-daily precipitation extremes in climate change scenarios based on RCMs not resolving convection need to be interpreted with caution.

  4. Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the Western Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Rocha, A.

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of the WRF-ARW numerical weather model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed for the month of December 2009, during the rainy season in Mainland Portugal. The heavy to extreme rainfall periods were caused by several low surface pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. Three model runs, forced with the initial fields from a global domain model, were conducted. The model experiments were conducted to compare model performance using different approaches: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location (RunObsN) is included; (3) nudging is used to adjust the analysis field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated against an observed hourly precipitation dataset of 27 rainfall stations, grouped by altitude, using several statistical parameters. The WRF model did not show skill in reproducing the precipitation intensities but simulated reasonably the periods of precipitation occurrence. The best performance was reached for the grid-nudging experiment (RunGridN). The overall model accuracy (RMSE) was similar for all altitude classes, for the three experiments: highest for lowlands and highlands. Precipitation simulated in areas located in rough terrain and deep valleys tend to be less accurate.

  5. Simulations of Precipitation Variability over the Upper Rio Grande Basin

    SciTech Connect

    Costigan, Keeley R.; Bossert, James E.; Langley, David L.

    1997-12-31

    In this research, we study Albuquerque`s water and how it may be affected by changes in the regional climate, as manifested by variations in Rio Grande water levels. To do this, we rely on the use of coupled atmospheric, runoff, and ground water models. Preliminary work on the project has focused on uncoupled simulations of the aquifer beneath Albuquerque and winter precipitation simulations of the upper Rio Grande Basin. The latter is discussed in this paper.

  6. 3D Structure of the Heavy Precipitation in South China by Dual-Doppler Radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haiguang, Z.

    2010-09-01

    As a result of the effect of the trough at 500hPa, the shear line at 850hPa and the low level cold air, it produced a heavy precipitation in the north region of Guangdong province and Pearl River Delta in China, up to 199.5mm rainfall from 01LST to 04LST and 99.1mm rainfall on 02LST 7 May 2010 at Wushan, 107.4mm rainfall on 02LST 7 May at Dongguan station. The one hour precipitation at Wushan has broken the record. The three dimensional wind fields were retrieved by the volume scan data of the dual-Doppler radar located in Guangzhou and Shenzhen cities. The structure evolution of the 3D wind fields of the heavy rainfall was investigated. It is a convective cloud precipitation as the radar echo analyses shown. The reflectivity is very strong at the heavy precipitation period time that the maximum value is more than 55dBZ. The supercell, bow-echo and the squall line located on the MβCS played an important role on this heavy rainfall. The dual-Doppler retrieval wind show that the heavy rainfall was induced by the meso-β-scale convergence line and the meso-β-scale vortex at the low and medium levels. The meso-β-scale convergence line triggered and maintained the heavy rainfall. The meso-β-scale convergence line moved southeastward. It stayed at Guangzhou and Dongguan city for period of time. There were strong convergence and vorticity at the low and medium levels of the MβCS. The rainband moved southeastward while the convergence line propagated along the same direction. Acknowledgements The work was supported by the Grant Agency of the National Science Foundation of China (grant 40975015, 40605014), the Grant Agency of the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China (grant 2004CB418305), and the foundation of state key laboratory of severe weather.

  7. Impacts of boundary conditions on the precipitation simulation of RegCM4 in the CORDEX East Asia domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, Ju-Hee; Oh, Seok-Geun; Suh, Myoung-Seok

    2013-02-01

    The impact of boundary conditions (BCs) on simulations of precipitation characteristics using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) driven by two BCs (ERA-Interim: ERA, NCEP/DOE 2: R2) was investigated using 18 years (1989-2006) of simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia region. The RegCM4 adequately simulated spatial distribution of precipitation over the East Asia region and its temporal variations, irrespective of the BC used. It overestimated precipitation over the central region of the model domain except for India and South Korea and underestimated precipitation over equatorial ocean regions. The RegCM4's simulation skills were better in winter than in summer regardless of the BC, which can be related to the low spatial resolution (50 km) of the model, but detailed simulations of precipitation are significantly impacted by the BCs, although the impact varies with geographical location and season. Driven by ERA, the RegCM4 reproduces more precipitation in the central inland region of the model's domain and less precipitation in the southern coastal areas than when driven by R2. The differences occur because RegCM4 driven by ERA simulated the lower troposphere as being warmer and more humid and the upper troposphere as being cooler than that by R2. The transport of moisture into the central region of the model domain is also enhanced when the RegCM4 is driven by ERA. Although the RegCM4 accurately simulated the seasonal variations in precipitation, it failed to capture diurnal variations over South Korea, particularly when driven by R2, and overestimated and underestimated light precipitation (<25 mm/day) and heavy precipitation (> 50 mm/day), respectively.

  8. Numerical investigations with WRF about atmospheric features leading to heavy precipitation and flood events over the Central Andes' complex topography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zamuriano, Marcelo; Brönnimann, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    It's known that some extremes such as heavy rainfalls, flood events, heatwaves and droughts depend largely on the atmospheric circulation and local features. Bolivia is no exception and while the large scale dynamics over the Amazon has been largely investigated, the local features driven by the Andes Cordillera and the Altiplano is still poorly documented. New insights on the regional atmospheric dynamics preceding heavy precipitation and flood events over the complex topography of the Andes-Amazon interface are added through numerical investigations of several case events: flash flood episodes over La Paz city and the extreme 2014 flood in south-western Amazon basin. Large scale atmospheric water transport is dynamically downscaled in order to take into account the complex topography forcing and local features as modulators of these events. For this purpose, a series of high resolution numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model is conducted using various global datasets and parameterizations. While several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the dynamics of these episodes, they have not been tested yet through numerical modelling experiments. The simulations captures realistically the local water transport and the terrain influence over atmospheric circulation, even though the precipitation intensity is in general unrealistic. Nevertheless, the results show that Dynamical Downscaling over the tropical Andes' complex terrain provides useful meteorological data for a variety of studies and contributes to a better understanding of physical processes involved in the configuration of these events.

  9. Realistic three-dimensional radiative transfer simulations of observed precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, I. S.; Bettenhausen, M. H.

    2013-12-01

    Remote sensing observations of precipitation typically utilize a number of instruments on various platforms. Ground validation campaigns incorporate ground-based and airborne measurements to characterize and study precipitating clouds, while the precipitation measurement constellation envisioned by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission includes measurements from differing space-borne instruments. In addition to disparities such as frequency channel selection and bandwidth, measurement geometry and resolution differences between observing platforms result in inherent inconsistencies between data products. In order to harmonize measurements from multiple passive radiometers, a framework is required that addresses these differences. To accomplish this, we have implemented a flexible three-dimensional radiative transfer model. As its core, the radiative transfer model uses the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) version 2 to solve the radiative transfer equation in three dimensions using Monte Carlo integration. Gaseous absorption is computed with MonoRTM and formatted into look-up tables for rapid processing. Likewise, scattering properties are pre-computed using a number of publicly available codes, such as T-Matrix and DDSCAT. If necessary, a melting layer model can be applied to the input profiles. Gaussian antenna beams estimate the spatial resolutions of the passive measurements, and realistic bandpass characteristics can be included to properly account for the spectral response of the simulated instrument. This work presents three-dimensional simulations of WindSat brightness temperatures for an oceanic rain event sampled by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The 2B-31 combined Precipitation Radar / TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) retrievals provide profiles that are the input to the radiative transfer model. TMI brightness temperatures are also simulated. Comparisons between monochromatic, pencil beam simulations and

  10. Large-Eddy Simulations of Strongly Precipitating, Shallow, Stratocumulus-Topped Boundary Layers.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, Bjorn; Cotton, William R.; Feingold, Graham; Moeng, Chin-Hoh

    1998-12-01

    Large-eddy simulations that incorporate a size-resolving representation of cloud water are used to study the effect of heavy drizzle on PBL structure. Simulated surface precipitation rates average about 1 mm day1. Heavily drizzling simulations are compared to nondrizzling simulations under two nocturnal PBL regimes-one primarily driven by buoyancy and the other driven equally by buoyancy and shear. Drizzle implies a net latent heating in the cloud that leads to sharp reductions in both entrainment and the production of turbulent kinetic energy by buoyancy (particularly in downdrafts). Drizzle, which evaporates below cloud base, promotes a cooler and moister subcloud layer that further inhibits deep mixing. The cooling and moistening is in quantitative agreement with some observations and is shown to favor the formation of cumuli rising out of the subcloud layer. The cumuli, which are local in space and time, are responsible for most of the heat and moisture transport. They also appear to generate a larger-scale circulation that differs dramatically from the regularity typically found in nonprecipitating stratocumulus. Time-averaged turbulent fluxes of heat and moisture increase in the presence of precipitation, suggesting that drizzle (and drizzle-induced stratification) should not necessarily be taken as a sign of decoupling. Because drizzle primarily affects the vertical distribution of buoyancy, shear production of turbulent kinetic energy mitigates some of the effects described above. Based on large-eddy simulation the authors hypothesize that shallow, well-mixed, radiatively driven stratocumulus cannot persist in the presence of heavy drizzle. In accord with some simpler models, the simulated case with heavy precipitation promotes a reduction in both liquid-water path and entrainment. However, the simulations suggest that time-integrated cloud fraction may increase as a result of drizzle because thinner precipitating clouds may persist longer if the boundary

  11. Mars heavy ion precipitating flux as measured by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leblanc, F.; Modolo, R.; Curry, S.; Luhmann, J.; Lillis, R.; Chaufray, J. Y.; Hara, T.; McFadden, J.; Halekas, J.; Eparvier, F.; Larson, D.; Connerney, J.; Jakosky, B.

    2015-11-01

    In the absence of an intrinsic dipole magnetic field, Mars' O+ planetary ions are accelerated by the solar wind. Because of their large gyroradius, a population of these planetary ions can precipitate back into Mars' upper atmosphere with enough energy to eject neutrals into space via collision. This process, referred to as sputtering, may have been a dominant atmospheric loss process during earlier stages of our Sun. Yet until now, a limited number of observations have been possible; Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms-3/Mars Express observed such a precipitation only during extreme conditions, suggesting that sputtering might be not as intense as theoretically predicted. Here we describe one example of precipitation of heavy ions during quiet solar conditions. Between November 2014 and April 2015, the average precipitating flux is significant and in agreement with predictions. From these measured precipitating fluxes, we estimate that a maximum of 1.0 × 1024 O/s could have been lost due to sputtering.

  12. Evaluation of precipitation predictions in a regional climate simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Costigan, K.R.; Bossert, J.E.; Langely, D.L.

    1998-12-01

    The research reported here is part of a larger project that is coupling a suite of environmental models to simulate the hydrologic cycle within river basins (Bossert et al., 1999). These models include the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), which provides meteorological variables and precipitation to the Simulator for Processes of Landscapes, Surface/Subsurface Hydrology (SPLASH). SPLASH partitions precipitation into evaporation, transpiration, soil water storage, surface runoff, and subsurface recharge. The runoff is collected within a simple river channel model and the Finite element Heat and Mass (FEHM) subsurface model is linked to the land surface and river flow model components to simulate saturated and unsaturated flow and changes in aquifer levels. The goal is to produce a fully interactive system of atmospheric, surface hydrology, river and groundwater models to allow water and energy feedbacks throughout the system. This paper focuses on the evaluation of the precipitation fields predicted by the RAMS model at different times during the 1992--1993 water year in the Rio Grande basin. The evaluation includes comparing the model predictions to the observed precipitation as reported by Cooperative Summary of the Day and SNOTEL reporting stations.

  13. Improving precipitation forecast with hybrid 3DVar and time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yuanbing; Min, Jinzhong; Chen, Yaodeng; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Zeng, Mingjian; Li, Xin

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluates the performance of three-dimensional variational (3DVar) and a hybrid data assimilation system using time-lagged ensembles in a heavy rainfall event. The time-lagged ensembles are constructed by sampling from a moving time window of 3 h along a model trajectory, which is economical and easy to implement. The proposed hybrid data assimilation system introduces flow-dependent error covariance derived from time-lagged ensemble into variational cost function without significantly increasing computational cost. Single observation tests are performed to document characteristic of the hybrid system. The sensitivity of precipitation forecasts to ensemble covariance weight and localization scale is investigated. Additionally, the TLEn-Var is evaluated and compared to the ETKF(ensemble transformed Kalman filter)-based hybrid assimilation within a continuously cycling framework, through which new hybrid analyses are produced every 3 h over 10 days. The 24 h accumulated precipitation, moisture, wind are analyzed between 3DVar and the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles. Results show that model states and precipitation forecast skill are improved by the hybrid assimilation using time-lagged ensembles compared with 3DVar. Simulation of the precipitable water and structure of the wind are also improved. Cyclonic wind increments are generated near the rainfall center, leading to an improved precipitation forecast. This study indicates that the hybrid data assimilation using time-lagged ensembles seems like a viable alternative or supplement in the complex models for some weather service agencies that have limited computing resources to conduct large size of ensembles.

  14. On the relationship between atmospheric rivers (ARs) and heavy precipitation over Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yatagai, A. I.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are known as the water-vapor rich part of the broader warm conveyor belt. Recently, several AR detection algorithms are proposed, and structures and that of statistical features are studied globally. Since Japan is a humid country located in the north of the warm pool, ARs, middle tropospheric fast moisture transport, might be an important moisture source for heavy precipitation events in Japan. The purpose of this study is to develop an algorithm of detection of ARs over Japan, and to investigate the possible relationship between them and Japanese heavy precipitation events. Since high spatial correlations were obtained between ERA-Interim reanalysis PW and that of SSM/I (microwave images), we used daily PW (0.75 degree grid) for detection of the ARs. Using 36 years (1979-2014) ERA-Interim, we defined daily smoothed PW climatology. Then, we detected AR area with daily anomaly of PW exceeding 10 mm. However, we exclude round-shaped (caused by Typhoon etc) area and the case of moisture transport not exceeding 30N/30S. The daily AR events over Japan (123-146E, 24-46N) are; 1013 cases for winter (DJF), 1722 for spring (MAM), 2229 for summer (JJA) and 1870 for autumn (SON) during the 36 years. They successfully include Hiroshima disaster event (19 August 2014, Hirota et al., 2015) and Amami heavy precipitation event (20 October 2010). The summer with large AR appearance (1998 and 2010) had negative SOI (La Nina), and lowest appearance year (1992) was the year of El Nino (positively significant SOI). Totally, more ARs come over Japan area in La Nina years, however, the seasonal statistics between SOI and the number of AR is not straightforward, indicating that it is difficult to explain ARs over Japan with only tropical inter-annual variability. We use APHRO-JP (Kamiguchi et al., 2010) daily gridded (0.05 degree) precipitation (1979-2011) over Japanese land areas for comparison. Among the 32 years (1979-2011), we had 82 cases of heavy

  15. Simulating calcium salt precipitation in the nephron using chemical speciation.

    PubMed

    Rodgers, Allen L; Allie-Hamdulay, Shameez; Jackson, Graham; Tiselius, Hans-Göran

    2011-08-01

    Theoretical modeling of urinary crystallization processes affords opportunities to create and investigate scenarios which would be extremely difficult or impossible to achieve in in vivo experiments. Researchers have previously hypothesized that calcium renal stone formation commences in the nephron. In the present study, concentrations of urinary components and pH ranges in different regions of the nephron were estimated from concentrations in blood combined with a knowledge of the renal handling of individual ions. These were used in the chemical speciation program JESS to determine the nature of the solution complexes in the different regions of the nephron and the saturation index (SI) of the stone-forming salts calcium oxalate (CaOx), brushite (Bru), hydroxyapatite (HAP) and octacalcium phosphate (OCP). The effect of independent precipitation of each of the latter on the SI values of other salts was also investigated. HAP was the only salt which was supersaturated throughout the nephron. All of the other salts were supersaturated only in the middle and distal regions of the collecting duct. Supersaturations were pH sensitive. When precipitation of CaOx, Bru and OCP was simulated in the distal part of the collecting duct, little or no effect on the SI values of the other stone forming salts was observed. However, simulation of HAP precipitation caused all other salts to become unsaturated. This suggests that if HAP precipitates, a pure stone comprising this component will ensue while if any of the other salts precipitates, a mixed CaOx/CaP stone will be formed. Application of Ostwald's Rule of Stages predicts that the mixed stone is likely to be CaOx and Bru. Our modelling demonstrates that precipitation of stone-forming salts in the nephron is highly dependent on the delicate nature of the chemical equilibria which prevail and which are themselves highly dependent on pH and component concentrations.

  16. Physically-based, Hydrologic Simulations Driven by Three Precipitation Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chintalapudi, S.; Sharif, H. O.; Yeggina, S.; El Hassan, A.

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluates the model-simulated stream discharge over the Guadalupe River basin in central Texas driven by three precipitation products: the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority (GBRA) rain gauge network, the Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) Stage ΙΙΙ precipitation product, and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product. Focus will be on results from the Upper Guadalupe River sub-basin. This sub-basin is more prone to flooding due to its geological properties (thin soils, exposed bedrock, and sparse vegetation) and the impact of Balcones Escarpment on the moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico. The physically based, distributed-parameter Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrologic model was used to simulate the June-2002 flooding event. Simulations driven by NEXRAD Stage ΙΙΙ 15 - min precipitation yielded better results with low RMSE (88.3%), high NSE (0.6), high R2 (0.73), low RSR (0.63) and low PBIAS (-17.3%) compared to simulations driven by the other products.

  17. Moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation occurrences in Tehran and the associated circulation types

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khansalari, Sakineh; Raziei, Tayeb; Mohebalhojeh, Ali Reza; Ahmadi-Givi, Farhang

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale atmospheric circulations associated with 133 moderate to heavy cold-weather precipitation events recorded at Mehrabad station in Tehran, Iran, during the period 1951-2013 are analysed. To this end, the performance of un-rotated, orthogonally rotated and obliquely rotated solutions of T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) is examined in classifying the atmospheric circulations into a few representative circulation types (CTs). The T-mode PCAs were applied to the 500-hPa geopotential height for the events in a domain from 10∘E to 70∘E and from 20∘N to 50∘N. The first six leading principal components were retained and then orthogonally and obliquely rotated using varimax and promax solutions, respectively. Statistical inter-comparison of the CTs obtained using the three solutions suggests that the obliquely rotated solution is the better choice for circulation classification in the present study. The six CTs obtained using the oblique rotation were then linked to the daily total precipitation and daily mean temperature variability at Tehran station as well as to the standardized anomalies of the daily total precipitation and mean daily temperature of a dense network of stations distributed across Iran. It is found that the CTs identified, though generally comparable in producing significant precipitation in Tehran, vary in their potential to bring cold weather and generate snowfall in Tehran specifically and in the country in general. While the first three CTs give rise to regional patterns of standardized precipitation anomalies centred in Tehran, the next three CTs leave a pronounced precipitation signature almost across the whole country. As regards the standardized temperature anomalies, with the exception of one CT that causes deep and widespread negative standardized anomalies over most parts of the country, the other CTs are characterized with a dipolar structure of a deep intrusion of cold weather to the west and prevailing warm weather

  18. A new type of polymeric heavy metal complexing precipitant used as fishery disinfectant and antiparasitic drug

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y. C.; Zhang, A. N.; Wang, X. B.; Xu, J.; Zeng, X. H.; Wang, H. M.

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a technique to produce a new kind of fishery drug that is water emulsion suspending agent containing polymeric calcium-iron-dithiocarbamate with heavy metal complexing precipitate ability, good disinfection and auxiliary insecticidal efficacy. The product has good dispersion, high efficiency and low toxicity, as well as no pollution and no harmful residues. It not only can be used in the pond waters and ornamental waters, but also can meet the high requirements of the aquaculture waters. There is non-pollutant emission in the production, which is a green environment-friendly technique without three waste discharges. This technology belongs to the ecological and environmental protection.

  19. Effects of microphysics parameterization schemes on the simulation of a heavy rainfall event in Shanghai

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Yu; Liu, Chaoshun; Qiao, Fengxue; Liu, Yanan; Gao, Wei; Sun, Zhibin

    2016-09-01

    A typical heavy rainfall event occurred in Shanghai on September 13, 2009 was simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to study the impact of microphysics parameterization on heavy precipitation simulations. Sensitivity experiments were conducted using the cumulus parameterization scheme of Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), but with three different microphysics schemes (Lin et al, WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6)) under three-way nested domains with horizontal resolutions of 36km, 12km and 4km. The results showed that all three microphysics schemes are able to capture the general pattern of this heavy rainfall event, but differ in simulating the location, center and intensity of precipitation. Specifically, the Lin scheme overestimated the rainfall intensity and simulated the rainfall location drifting northeastwards. However, the WSM5 scheme better simulated the rainfall location but stronger intensity than the observation, while the WSM6 scheme better produced the rainfall intensity, but with an unrealistic rainfall area.

  20. Study of accuracy of precipitation measurements using simulation method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Zoltán; Lajos, Tamás; Morvai, Krisztián

    2013-04-01

    Hungarian Meteorological Service1 Budapest University of Technology and Economics2 Precipitation is one of the the most important meteorological parameters describing the state of the climate and to get correct information from trends, accurate measurements of precipitation is very important. The problem is that the precipitation measurements are affected by systematic errors leading to an underestimation of actual precipitation which errors vary by type of precipitaion and gauge type. It is well known that the wind speed is the most important enviromental factor that contributes to the underestimation of actual precipitation, especially for solid precipitation. To study and correct the errors of precipitation measurements there are two basic possibilities: · Use of results and conclusion of International Precipitation Measurements Intercomparisons; · To build standard reference gauges (DFIR, pit gauge) and make own investigation; In 1999 at the HMS we tried to achieve own investigation and built standard reference gauges But the cost-benefit ratio in case of snow (use of DFIR) was very bad (we had several winters without significant amount of snow, while the state of DFIR was continously falling) Due to the problem mentioned above there was need for new approximation that was the modelling made by Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Fluid Mechanics using the FLUENT 6.2 model. The ANSYS Fluent package is featured fluid dynamics solution for modelling flow and other related physical phenomena. It provides the tools needed to describe atmospheric processes, design and optimize new equipment. The CFD package includes solvers that accurately simulate behaviour of the broad range of flows that from single-phase to multi-phase. The questions we wanted to get answer to are as follows: · How do the different types of gauges deform the airflow around themselves? · Try to give quantitative estimation of wind induced error. · How does the use

  1. Predictability of heavy sub-hourly precipitation amounts for a weather radar based nowcasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2015-04-01

    Heavy precipitation events and subsequent flash floods are one of the most dramatic hazards in many regions such as the Mediterranean basin as recently stressed in the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment) international programme. The focus of this study is to assess the quality of very short range (below 3 hour lead times) precipitation forecasts based on weather radar nowcasting system. Specific nowcasting amounts of 10 and 30 minutes generated with a nowcasting technique (Berenguer et al 2005, 2011) are compared against raingauge observations and also weather radar precipitation estimates observed over Catalonia (NE Spain) using data from the Meteorological Service of Catalonia and the Water Catalan Agency. Results allow to discuss the feasibility of issuing warnings for different precipitation amounts and lead times for a number of case studies, including very intense convective events with 30minute precipitation amounts exceeding 40 mm (Bech et al 2005, 2011). As indicated by a number of verification scores single based radar precipitation nowcasts decrease their skill quickly with increasing lead times and rainfall thresholds. This work has been done in the framework of the Hymex research programme and has been partly funded by the ProFEWS project (CGL2010-15892). References Bech J, N Pineda, T Rigo, M Aran, J Amaro, M Gayà, J Arús, J Montanyà, O van der Velde, 2011: A Mediterranean nocturnal heavy rainfall and tornadic event. Part I: Overview, damage survey and radar analysis. Atmospheric Research 100:621-637 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.024 Bech J, R Pascual, T Rigo, N Pineda, JM López, J Arús, and M Gayà, 2007: An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 7:129-139 http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-7-129-2007 Berenguer M, C Corral, R Sa0nchez-Diezma, D Sempere-Torres, 2005: Hydrological validation of a radar based nowcasting technique. Journal of

  2. Improving precipitation simulation from updated surface characteristics in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Gabriel; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Moraes, Elisabete Caria; Chiquetto, Júlio Barboza; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle

    2017-07-01

    Land use and land cover maps and their physical-chemical and biological properties are important variables in the numerical modeling of Earth systems. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze the improvements resulting from the land use and land cover map update in numerical simulations performed using the Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4), as well as the seasonal variations of physical parameters used by the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). In general, the update of the South America 2007 land use and land cover map, used by the BATS, improved the simulation of precipitation by 10 %, increasing the mean temporal correlation coefficient, compared to observed data, from 0.84 to 0.92 (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Correspondingly, the simulations performed with adjustments in maximum fractional vegetation cover, in visible and shortwave infrared reflectance, and in the leaf area index, showed a good agreement for maximum and minimum temperature, with values closer to observed data. The changes in physical parameters and land use updating in BATS/RegCM4 reduced overestimation of simulated precipitation from 19 to 7 % (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Regarding evapotranspiration and precipitation, the most significant differences due to land use updating were located (1) in the Amazon deforestation arc; (2) around the Brazil-Bolivia border (in the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands); (3) in the Northeast region of Brazil; (4) in northwestern Paraguay; and (5) in the River Plate Basin, in Argentina. Moreover, the main precipitation differences between sensitivity and control experiments occurred during the rainy months in central-north South America (October to March). These were associated with a displacement in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) positioning, presenting a spatial pattern of alternated areas with higher and lower precipitation rates. These important differences occur due to the

  3. Improving precipitation simulation from updated surface characteristics in South America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Gabriel; Silva, Maria Elisa Siqueira; Moraes, Elisabete Caria; Chiquetto, Júlio Barboza; da Silva Cardozo, Francielle

    2016-04-01

    Land use and land cover maps and their physical-chemical and biological properties are important variables in the numerical modeling of Earth systems. In this context, the main objective of this study is to analyze the improvements resulting from the land use and land cover map update in numerical simulations performed using the Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4), as well as the seasonal variations of physical parameters used by the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). In general, the update of the South America 2007 land use and land cover map, used by the BATS, improved the simulation of precipitation by 10 %, increasing the mean temporal correlation coefficient, compared to observed data, from 0.84 to 0.92 (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Correspondingly, the simulations performed with adjustments in maximum fractional vegetation cover, in visible and shortwave infrared reflectance, and in the leaf area index, showed a good agreement for maximum and minimum temperature, with values closer to observed data. The changes in physical parameters and land use updating in BATS/RegCM4 reduced overestimation of simulated precipitation from 19 to 7 % (significant at p < 0.05, Student's t test). Regarding evapotranspiration and precipitation, the most significant differences due to land use updating were located (1) in the Amazon deforestation arc; (2) around the Brazil-Bolivia border (in the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands); (3) in the Northeast region of Brazil; (4) in northwestern Paraguay; and (5) in the River Plate Basin, in Argentina. Moreover, the main precipitation differences between sensitivity and control experiments occurred during the rainy months in central-north South America (October to March). These were associated with a displacement in the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) positioning, presenting a spatial pattern of alternated areas with higher and lower precipitation rates. These important differences occur due to the

  4. Organization of the Tropical Convective Cloud Population by Humidity and the Critical Transition to Heavy Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Igel, M.

    2015-12-01

    The tropical atmosphere exhibits an abrupt statistical switch between non-raining and heavily raining states as column moisture increases across a wide range of length scales. Deep convection occurs at values of column humidity above the transition point and induces drying of moist columns. With a 1km resolution, large domain cloud resolving model run in RCE, what will be made clear here for the first time is how the entire tropical convective cloud population is affected by and feeds back to the pickup in heavy precipitation. Shallow convection can act to dry the low levels through weak precipitation or vertical redistribution of moisture, or to moisten toward a transition to deep convection. It is shown that not only can deep convection dehydrate the entire column, it can also dry just the lower layer through intense rain. In the latter case, deep stratiform cloud then forms to dry the upper layer through rain with anomalously high rates for its value of column humidity until both the total column moisture falls below the critical transition point and the upper levels are cloud free. Thus, all major tropical cloud types are shown to respond strongly to the same critical phase-transition point. This mutual response represents a potentially strong organizational mechanism for convection, and the frequency of and logical rules determining physical evolutions between these convective regimes will be discussed. The precise value of the point in total column moisture at which the transition to heavy precipitation occurs is shown to result from two independent thresholds in lower-layer and upper-layer integrated humidity.

  5. Heavy Precipitation impacts and emergency planning - developing applicable strategies for a metropolitan area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

    2016-04-01

    Heavy rainfall in central Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change, which occurs with large seasonal and regional differences in its magnitude. The extent of loss depends on natural parameters (e.g. topography and vegetation) as well as on socio-economic factors like urbanized and industrialized areas and population density. Dangerous cascade effects appear, if critical infrastructure like the electrical power supply is affected. In some cases mudflows and flash floods cause inundated or undercut roads and cause a high demand for fast and effective assistance of the authorities. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Commonly this responsibility is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units of the community or district. After heavy rainfall in an urban area, numerous incidents and emergency calls appearing at a time are overstressing the human and technical resources of the fire brigades within the local authority frequently. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades shall be developed for the Rhine-Main-Area in order to identify particular affected spots of heavy rain and bundle resources of the fire brigades. It is to be found out if the study area contains regions with a particularly high exposure to heavy rain and high application numbers of the fire department and whether there is a relationship of rainfall and frequency of use. To evaluate particular local effects on the fire brigades capability, a brief analysis of the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) as well as the evaluation of the incident data of the affected fire brigades, is used to frame a realistic approach. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain

  6. A model intercomparison for stochastic simulation of temporal precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

    2014-05-01

    Stochastic models, based on diverse stochastic processes, have been applied in the last decades for the simulation of precipitation time series. Different models target a good reproduction of statistical properties of precipitation across a specific range of temporal scales. The choice of the statistical properties and the respective range of scales are frequently dictated by the purpose for which each model is built. Despite the large variety of stochastic precipitation modeling tools, an intercomparison has been rarely attempted. Moreover, a common practice is to validate a stochastic model only for the statistical properties for which it has been developed to perform well. It is our opinion that this practice may have negative implications, especially when stochastic models are used in hydrology as a black box. In this study we present an extensive comparison among some of the most widely applied stochastic precipitation models. Models based on point processes (e.g. Neyman-Scott rectangular pulses model, Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulses model), Mutiplicative Random Cascades (e.g. canonical and microcanonical MRC), Markov chains, scaling processes and their combinations (e.g. Paschalis et al., 2013, Advances in Water resources) are used in order to assess their efficiency for a number of stations belonging to different climates, spanning from semiarid to wet oceanic. A complete model validation is performed, taking into account all the essential statistical properties of precipitation (e.g. probability distribution, extremes, autocorrelation, intermittency, etc.) for a wide range of temporal scales relevant for hydrological and ecological applications. The overall goal is to identify the general patterns of the strengths and weaknesses of the various modeling tools, and to provide insights for generally applicable guidelines in the model selection dependent on the specific hydrological/ecological application.

  7. Atmospheric conditions associated with heavy precipitation events in comparison to seasonal means in the western mediterranean region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khodayar, Samiro; Kalthoff, Norbert; Kottmeier, Christoph

    2016-03-01

    The autumn atmospheric conditions associated with Heavy Precipitation Events (HPEs) in the western mediterranean region and differences with respect to the seasonal-mean conditions are investigated. Seasonal high-resolution simulations from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM covering the autumn periods of 2011 and 2012 are used. Atmospheric conditions at five different subdomains surrounding the western Mediterranean are considered, namely France, Italy (North and South), Spain, and North Africa. During HPEs, moisture and instability sources are located generally upstream of the target area over the sea, being transported by fast low-level winds towards the HPE areas. Concentration of high humidity over land and initiation of convection are highly related to the orography in the area. Stronger convective precipitation events occur at mid-level elevations rather than at higher altitudes. The significant increase in atmospheric moisture and instability, identified prior to HPEs, builds up in two different time lengths: atmospheric moisture increase could be traced back to at least 6-24 h before the initiation stage of the event, whereas an increase of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is detected in the hours prior to the event during the mature stage. The most intense HPEs are in general associated with higher values of integrated water vapour, CAPE, and low-level and mid-tropospheric wind speed. During HPEs in all subdomains, the dominant precipitation peak occurs between 1200 and 1800 UTC suggesting that convective precipitation prevails in most HPEs. The diurnal cycle of integrated water vapour during the mature stage of HPEs shows that the atmosphere remains wetter than average for most of the period and that only a decrease is seen after the afternoon precipitation peak. Negligible CAPE characterizes mean-seasonal conditions while the classical diurnal cycle with the peak in the early afternoon and much higher mean values occur during HPE events

  8. Mass accumulation rate of detrital materials in Lake Suigetsu as a potential proxy for heavy precipitation: a comparison of the observational precipitation and sedimentary record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Yoshiaki; Tada, Ryuji; Yamada, Kazuyoshi; Irino, Tomohisa; Nagashima, Kana; Nakagawa, Takeshi; Omori, Takayuki

    2016-02-01

    In the densely populated region of East Asia, it is important to know the mechanism, scale, and frequency of heavy precipitation brought about during the monsoons and typhoons. However, observational data, which cover only several decades, are insufficient to examine the long-term trend of extreme precipitation and its background mechanism. In humid areas, the transport flux of a suspended detrital material through a river system is known to have an empirical power relationship with precipitation. Thus, the sedimentation flux of a fine detrital material could potentially be used as a proxy for reconstructing past heavy precipitation events. To test the idea that the sedimentation flux of detrital materials records past heavy precipitation events (e.g., typhoons), we focused on the detrital flux estimated from the annually laminated sediment of Lake Suigetsu, central Japan, which is capable of accurately correlating the age of detrital flux with the precipitation record. We first established a precise age model (error within ±1 year in average) beginning in 1920 A.D. on the basis of varve counting fine-tuned by correlation between event layers with historical floods. The flux of the detrital material (g/cm2/year) was estimated on the basis of Al2O3 content (wt%), dry bulk density (g/cm3), and sedimentation rate (cm/year) calculated from the age model. The detrital flux of background sedimentation showed a weak positive correlation with annual and monthly (June and September) precipitation excluding heavy precipitation that exceeded 100 mm/day. Furthermore, the thickness of instantaneous event layers, which corresponds to several maxima of detrital flux and is correlated with floods that occurred mainly during typhoons, showed a positive relationship with the total amount of precipitation that caused a flood event. This result suggests that the detrital flux maxima (deposition of event layers) record past extreme precipitation events that were likely associated with

  9. Numerical simulation of the precipitation development in a severe thunderstorm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geresdi, I.

    A two-dimensional, slab-symmetric time-dependent cloud model was used to investigate precipitation formation in a severe thunderstorm, observed during the MIST project on 20 July 1986. A bulk microphysics technique is applied in the model. Wet and dry growth of the hailstones is simulated by calculating mean hailstone temperature. The model reproduces well the life cycle of the thunderstorm. The simulation supports the assumption that the hailstones formed from frozen water drops, and the explosive growth of the cloud was caused by the release of latent heat of fusion. The model results (e.g., the duration and the region of the embryo formation) are interpreted from the point of view of hail suppression. The simulation shows that the ice particles (cloud ice and snow) play important roles in hailstone formation in warm base thunderstorms.

  10. Transferability Studies - Evaluating and Improving Simulated Precipitation During CEOP

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meinke, I.; Roads, J.; Kanamitsu, M.

    2007-05-01

    Transferability studies are a useful methodology for evaluating the capability of regional climate models to simulate different climates. We are participating in the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) Inter- Continental Transferability Study (ICTS) with the Experimental Climate Prediction Center's (ECPC's) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). We are evaluating the capability of the RSM to simulate energy and water budget components on seven different regional domains. Numerical simulations were conducted for regional climates in tropical, subtropical, mid-latitude and polar-regions. In particular, regional simulations were carried out for small- scale convective systems and various large-scale circulation regimes including: monsoons, the ITCZ, and mid- latitude storms. Sensitivity tests with four different convection schemes showed that either the Kain Fritsch (KF) convection scheme or the Simplified Arakawa Schubert Scheme (SAS) provided the best precipitation simulations for most domains. In those regions where the SAS convection scheme provided the best results, the KF scheme had poor results. On the other hand, in those regions where the KF scheme had the best result, the precipitation simulation using the SAS scheme was only slightly worse. On the basis of these findings we decided to rerun our original long term ICTS runs (July 1999 to December 2004) with the SAS convection scheme. These new long- term runs are now being compared to the previous long-term runs, which used the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert (RAS) convection scheme. Major improvements have been identified over the LBA domain. Also, the annual cycles over the LBA and the AMMA domains were improved in the long-term runs. Further comparisons with other water and energy budget components will be presented at the conference.

  11. Anomalously heavy monthly and seasonal precipitation in the Polish Carpathian Mountains and their foreland during the years 1881-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Twardosz, Robert; Cebulska, Marta; Walanus, Adam

    2016-10-01

    The paper addresses the frequency, amount and geographic coverage of anomalously heavy precipitation in southern Poland in relation to atmospheric circulation at the monthly and seasonal scales between 1881 and 2010. The Carpathian Mountains and their foreland were selected for the study as an area known for its high precipitation totals and frequent precipitation-triggered natural disasters, such as floods and landslides. Records from 18 stations were used to identify anomalously heavy precipitation (AHP) defined for the purposes of the study, as the top quartile ( Q 75 %) plus 1.5 times the interquartile gap (H) of the precipitation total ( P ≥ Q 75 % + 1.5 H). The study found that most cases of AHP were recorded at one single station each. This suggests that, in addition, to the influence of circulation, local factors also play a major role in the formation of particularly heavy precipitation. The greatest absolute anomalously high precipitation totals were recorded in two disparate parts of the study area: (i) its western part exposed to wet air masses from over the Atlantic Ocean brought in by the dominant western circulation in the temperate zone and (ii) elevated parts of its south-eastern part. Two months with AHP (AHP months) occurred over the entire area (18 stations) in May 1940 and 2010. The latter case had both the greatest absolute totals (over 500 mm) and relative totals defined as their ratio to the long-term average (500 %), and it triggered a catastrophic flood in the Upper Vistula basin.

  12. Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with

  13. Biogenic precipitation of manganese oxides and enrichment of heavy metals at acidic soil pH

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mayanna, Sathish; Peacock, Caroline L.; Schäffner, Franziska; Grawunder, Anja; Merten, Dirk; Kothe, Erika; Büchel, Georg

    2014-05-01

    The precipitation of biogenic Mn oxides at acidic pH is rarely reported and poorly understood, compared to biogenic Mn oxide precipitation at near neutral conditions. Here we identified and investigated the precipitation of biogenic Mn oxides in acidic soil, and studied their role in the retention of heavy metals, at the former uranium mining site of Ronneburg, Germany. The site is characterized by acidic pH, low carbon content and high heavy metal loads including rare earth elements. Specifically, the Mn oxides were present in layers identified by detailed soil profiling and within these layers pH varied from 4.7 to 5.1, Eh varied from 640 to 660 mV and there were enriched total metal contents for Ba, Ni, Co, Cd and Zn in addition to high Mn levels. Using electron microprobe analysis, synchrotron X-ray diffraction and X-ray absorption spectroscopy, we identified poorly crystalline birnessite (δ-MnO2) as the dominant Mn oxide in the Mn layers, present as coatings covering and cementing quartz grains. With geochemical modelling we found that the environmental conditions at the site were not favourable for chemical oxidation of Mn(II), and thus we performed 16S rDNA sequencing to isolate the bacterial strains present in the Mn layers. Bacterial phyla present in the Mn layers belonged to Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria, and from these phyla we isolated six strains of Mn(II) oxidizing bacteria and confirmed their ability to oxidise Mn(II) in the laboratory. The biogenic Mn oxide layers act as a sink for metals and the bioavailability of these metals was much lower in the Mn layers than in adjacent layers, reflecting their preferential sorption to the biogenic Mn oxide. In this presentation we will report our findings, concluding that the formation of natural biogenic poorly crystalline birnessite can occur at acidic pH, resulting in the formation of a biogeochemical barrier which, in turn, can control the mobility and bioavailability of heavy metals in

  14. Impacts of heavy precipitation events to emergency preparedness and response in the Rhine-Main-Area (Germany)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Heavy precipitation events are assumed effects of the climate change with wide seasonal and regional differences concerning their magnitude. An increase of particular short and intense rainfall is predicted by climate modelling for mid-Germany within the next 30 years, especially in spring and summer. The Rhine-Main-Area is stated one of the largest metropolitan areas in Germany with a very high density in population as well as industrial and traffic infrastructure. The vulnerability to natural hazards rises according to this fact. It is shown, that even today's heavy precipitation events have already a large extend of loss and cause high operational expenses to the Fire Departments involved, mainly caused by the enormous number of same-time reported incidents. The Fire Brigade of a community represents the responsible authority for rapid intervention to all kinds of emergencies resulting from heavy precipitation events. All emergency interventions by the local fire-brigade are coordinated by a superior local emergency control center, also operated by the Fire Department, where all incidents are logged in an electronic control system. The German Meteorological Service (DWD) offers support in previous warning and provides data for the subsequent evaluation of heavy precipitation events. The analysis of the correlation between heavy precipitation and reported local incidents for the Fire Departments helps to point out the problem. Within the efforts to cope with the consequences of climate change effects, the authorities as well as the hazard control institutions have to prepare new strategies and emergency plans for the future as requested by the German "National adaption strategy to the climate change". This is not especially a task for the Fire Brigades, but also for the general public to enhance their resilience. Keywords: emergency planning, infrastructure, heavy-precipitation

  15. Temporal variability in a stochastic precipitation field simulator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolberg, Sjur

    2016-04-01

    The space-time statistics of short-term precipitation is studied for two cities in northern Europe, and related to radiosonde observations. The motivation is to construct the temporally varying parameters needed to drive a stochastic short-term precipitation generator. Moments, intermittency, semivariograms, temporal covariance and advection parameters need to be characterised in order to produce realistic scenario simulations for extreme value estimation at different scales. It is hoped that the temporal variability in these parameters can be related to radiosonde data. Hourly values from 46 precipitation stations within a 100*130 km2 region around Copenhagen during the period 1979-2012 is analysed. Bi-daily radiosonde profiles are present from 1969 to 2006. These soundings (vertical profiles of temperature, dew point and wind vector) describe the atmospheric moisture content and convective potential of the current weather situation. Preliminary analysis show that some of the indices extracted from the 12h radiosonde data show good temporal autocorrelation, supporting interpolation to match the 1-hour precipitation data. The precipitation data show a rapidly decreasing temporal autocorrelation function (typically below 0.5 above approx. 12 km), indicating that there is a high variance fraction below scales that the station network is able to reveal. The second data set consists of 7.5-minute C-band radar data from Trondheim, available from June 2013 to October 2015. During the 2014 and 2015 summer seasons, around 25 tipping-bucket precipitation gauges within a 15*20 km area supply observations with temporal resolution down to minute-scale. Nearby radiosonde data are available bi-daily from 1963 to 2015. These data will be explored to provide insight in high-frequency spatial and temporal variability not detectable from the long-term Copenhagen data set. The analysis is a part of the EU-7FP project "Pearl" (http://www.pearl-fp7.eu/, Greve case study), the Norwegian

  16. A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming based on convection-permitting simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Aiguo; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Prein, Andreas F.

    2017-08-01

    Climate models project increasing precipitation intensity but decreasing frequency as greenhouse gases increase. However, the exact mechanism for the frequency decrease remains unclear. Here we investigate this by analyzing hourly data from regional climate change simulations with 4 km grid spacing covering most of North America using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model was forced with present and future boundary conditions, with the latter being derived by adding the CMIP5 19-model ensemble mean changes to the ERA-interim reanalysis. The model reproduces well the observed seasonal and spatial variations in precipitation frequency and histograms, and the dry interval between rain events over the contiguous US. Results show that overall precipitation frequency indeed decreases during the warm season mainly due to fewer light-moderate precipitation (0.1 < P ≤ 2.0 mm/h) events, while heavy (2 < P ≤ 10 mm/h) to very heavy precipitation (P > 10 mm/h) events increase. Dry spells become longer and more frequent, together with a reduction in time-mean relative humidity (RH) in the lower troposphere during the warm season. The increased dry hours and decreased RH lead to a reduction in overall precipitation frequency and also for light-moderate precipitation events, while water vapor-induced increases in precipitation intensity and the positive latent heating feedback in intense storms may be responsible for the large increase in intense precipitation. The size of intense storms increases while their number decreases in the future climate, which helps explain the increase in local frequency of heavy precipitation. The results generally support a new hypothesis for future warm-season precipitation: each rainstorm removes ≥7% more moisture from the air per 1 K local warming, and surface evaporation and moisture advection take slightly longer than currently to replenish the depleted moisture before the next storm forms, leading to longer dry spells and

  17. Radio-Occultation and Heavy Precipitation aboard the PAZ orbiter (ROHP-PAZ) and its Ground-Based campaign

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De La Torre Juarez, M.; Padulles, R.; Cardellach, E.; Tomás, S.; Turk, J.; Ao, C. O.

    2014-12-01

    For the first time ever, GNSS Radio Occultastion measurements will be taken at two polarizations, to exploit the potential capabilities of polarimetric radio occultation for detecting and quantifying heavy precipitation events and other de-polarizing atmospheric effects (e.g. cloud ice). We report the results on discriminating rain from a mountain top experiment set up to identify and understand the factors that affect the polarimetric RO signal by collecting heavy rain together with free-rain data.

  18. Simulation of heavy charged particles damage on MEMS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakhnov, V.; Glushko, A.; Makarchuk, V.; Zinchenko, L.; Terekhov, V.; Mikhaylichenko, S.

    2016-12-01

    The paper presents computer simulation results of heavy charged particles radiation effect on elements of electrostatic microelectromechanical systems. Modeling methods of heavy charged particles impact on MEMS elements were envisaged. The radiation sensitivity of different types of fractal electrostatic MEMS were evaluated. Methods of reduction of radiation impact on electrostatic MEMS based on fractal theory were discussed. Conclusions about fractal electrostatic MEMS features were outlined.

  19. What is the Relationship Between Heavy Ion Outflow and High-Latitude Energetic Particle Precipitation?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wilson, Gordon R.

    2001-01-01

    This document is the fourth quarter progress report for year two on contract NAW-99002 'What is the relationship between heavy ion outflow and high latitude energetic particle precipitation'. In this project we are studying the relationship between the fluxes, mean energies, and field-aligned flow speeds of escaping suprathermal H+ and O+ measured by the TEAMS instrument on FAST and the energy flux of precipitating electrons obtained form the LBHL images taken by the Ultraviolet Imagery (UVI) camera on the Polar spacecraft. We have analyzed data from three time intervals, 7-11 Feb, 25-31 Jan, and 1-6 Feb 1997. We find that there indeed is a relationship between the O+ escape fluxes and the intensity of the aurora at the foot point of the field line. The time delay between an auroral intensification and the corresponding increase in escape flux is very short, only a few minutes. At low auroral luminosity the relationship between escape flux and luminosity appears to break down due possibly to the lack of sensitivity of the auroral emissions to large fluxes of low energy electrons.

  20. Changes in magnitude and frequency of heavy precipitation across China and its potential links to summer temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gu, Xihui; Zhang, Qiang; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun

    2017-04-01

    Changes in the magnitude, frequency and timing of heavy precipitation are closely related to the occurrence of floods and droughts, which hold a great deal of significance for management of agricultural irrigation and water resources. Records of daily precipitation and temperature from 728 stations across China were used to assess changes in the magnitude, frequency and timing of heavy precipitation using the Peak-over-Threshold (POT) with 95th percentile as the threshold. Because of the continuous nature of the magnitude and timing of heavy precipitation, the ;change point; method and the modified Mann-Kendall trend test method were used to detect change points (CPs) and slowly-varying changes, respectively. In addition, the segmented regression and Poisson regression methods were used to detect CPs and temporal trends in the frequency of heavy precipitation, respectively, with consideration of the count nature of the data. The results showed that 55% and 36% of the stations had CPs in mean and/or variance of the magnitude and timing, respectively, while the percentage is only 5.8% in the frequency. However, while there is limited evidence of significant trends in the magnitude and timing, strong evidence points to a significant increasing frequency in most regions of China. These changes may be partly explained by changes in summer temperature. Examination of the summer surface temperature records suggests that the areas, where the frequency of heavy precipitation has a significant increase, are also mostly characterized by significant increasing temperature. In addition, trends of the frequency vary between the periods before and after the turn point (TP) of summer temperature trends, especially in northern China where both the summer temperature and the frequency have shifted significantly decreasing trends to significantly increasing trends. A possible interpretation of these findings is that storms tend to be more frequent without significant changes in water

  1. The long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation and its link to urbanization effects in Shanghai during 1916-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Ping; Ding, Yihui

    2017-03-01

    Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century (1916-2014), the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that: (1) Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. (2) The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. (3) Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.

  2. Numerical Simulation of Chennai Heavy Rainfall Using MM5 Mesoscale Model with Different Cumulus Parameterization Schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litta, A. J.; Chakrapani, B.; Mohankumar, K.

    2007-07-01

    Heavy rainfall events become significant in human affairs when they are combined with hydrological elements. The problem of forecasting heavy precipitation is especially difficult since it involves making a quantitative precipitation forecast, a problem well recognized as challenging. Chennai (13.04°N and 80.17°E) faced incessant and heavy rain about 27 cm in 24 hours up to 8.30 a.m on 27th October 2005 completely threw life out of gear. This torrential rain caused by deep depression which lay 150km east of Chennai city in Bay of Bengal intensified and moved west north-west direction and crossed north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast on 28th morning. In the present study, we investigate the predictability of the MM5 mesoscale model using different cumulus parameterization schemes for the heavy rainfall event over Chennai. MM5 Version 3.7 (PSU/NCAR) is run with two-way triply nested grids using Lambert Conformal Coordinates (LCC) with a nest ratio of 3:1 and 23 vertical layers. Grid sizes of 45, 15 and 5 km are used for domains 1, 2 and 3 respectively. The cumulus parameterization schemes used in this study are Anthes-Kuo scheme (AK), the Betts-Miller scheme (BM), the Grell scheme (GR) and the Kain-Fritsch scheme (KF). The present study shows that the prediction of heavy rainfall is sensitive to cumulus parameterization schemes. In the time series of rainfall, Grell scheme is in good agreement with observation. The ideal combination of the nesting domains, horizontal resolution and cloud parameterization is able to simulate the heavy rainfall event both qualitatively and quantitatively.

  3. Representation of Precipitation in a Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Ban, Nikolina; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    ., 2016: Towards European-scale convection-resolving climate simulations with GPUs: a study with COSMO 4.19, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3393-3412, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3393-2016. Ban, N., Schmidli J. and Schär, C., 2015: Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 1165-1172.

  4. Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

    SciTech Connect

    Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

    2016-09-01

    This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts also significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.

  5. Verification of the isotopic composition of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model over Japan.

    PubMed

    Tanoue, Masahiro; Ichiyanagi, Kimpei; Yoshimura, Kei

    2016-01-01

    The isotopic composition (δ(18)O and δ(2)H) of precipitation simulated by a regional isotope circulation model with a horizontal resolution of 10, 30 and 50 km was compared with observations at 56 sites over Japan in 2013. All simulations produced reasonable spatio-temporal variations in δ(18)O in precipitation over Japan, except in January. In January, simulated δ(18)O values in precipitation were higher than observed values on the Pacific side of Japan, especially during an explosively developing extratropical cyclone event. This caused a parameterisation of precipitation formulation about the large fraction of precipitated water to liquid detrained water in the lower troposphere. As a result, most water vapour that transported from the Sea of Japan precipitated on the Sea of Japan side. The isotopic composition of precipitation was a useful verification tool for the parameterisation of precipitation formulation as well as large-scale moisture transport processes in the regional isotope circulation model.

  6. GPM/DPR precipitation compared with 3.5-km-resolution NICAM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotsuki, S.; Terasaki, K.; Miyoshi, T.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims to compare the GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement)-derived precipitation data with other precipitation products and numerical model simulations as the first step toward the possible use of GPM-derived precipitation data in numerical weather prediction through data assimilation. In February 2014, the GPM satellite was launched successfully and started observing global precipitation between 65S and 65N using the new DPR (Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar) sensor. The GPM/DPR observes three-dimensional meteorological echoes with Ku-band and Ka-band radars. It is among our interests how the precipitation data from GPM/DPR compare with other precipitation data. In this study, we compare the GPM/DPR precipitation data with simulated precipitation from the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) at a 3.5-km horizontal resolution. Precipitation products derived from GPM/GMI (GPM Microwave Imager) and GSMaP/NRT are also compared. We focus on two precipitation types from May to July, 2014: frontal precipitation cases and tropical cyclone cases. The spatial pattern of the frontal precipitation measured by GPM/DPR agrees generally well with those of the other precipitation data. However, GPM/GMI-derived precipitation is systematically less than that of the NICAM simulation. By contrast, the vertical structures are considerably different between GPM/DPR and the NICAM simulation. The simulated mixing ratios indicate snow and graupel at upper levels, but these are not captured by GPM/DPR. The tropical cyclones captured by GPM/DPR are simulated reasonably well by NICAM. Further investigations will be made and will be included in this presentation.

  7. The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest; Bookhagen, Bodo; Palazzi, Elisa; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad

    2016-11-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.

  8. The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest; Bookhagen, Bodo; Palazzi, Elisa; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad

    2017-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.

  9. Heavy metals in wastewater: Modelling the hydroxide precipitation of copper(II) from wastewater using lime as the precipitant

    SciTech Connect

    Baltpurvins, K.A.; Burns, R.C.; Lawrance, G.A.

    1996-12-31

    The effect of effluent composition (Cl{sup {minus}}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2{minus}} or CO{sub 3}{sup 2{minus}}) on the efficiency of the hydroxide precipitation of Cu(II) modelling lime (CaO) as the precipitant has been predicted using the solubility domain approach and has been experimentally validated. Solubility domains were based on the phases that were found to be solubility-limiting for systems representing potential effluent chemical composition limits. The generated solubility domains generally encompassed the experimentally observed solubilities, thereby providing effluent treatment quality assurance ranges for the hydroxide precipitation process. The presence of gypsum (CaSO{sub 4{center_dot}}2H{sub 2}O) and calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) as secondary precipitates had little effect on the observed residual Cu(II) solubilities, with Cu(II) mobility being governed by the least-soluble kinetically precipitated (rather than thermodynamically favored) phase in the system under study.

  10. Development of Radar-Satellite Blended QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) Technique for heavy rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Sangmin; Yoon, Sunkwon; Rhee, Jinyoung; Park, Kyungwon

    2016-04-01

    Due to the recent extreme weather and climate change, a frequency and size of localized heavy rainfall increases and it may bring various hazards including sediment-related disasters, flooding and inundation. To prevent and mitigate damage from such disasters, very short range forecasting and nowcasting of precipitation amounts are very important. Weather radar data very useful in monitoring and forecasting because weather radar has high resolution in spatial and temporal. Generally, extrapolation based on the motion vector is the best method of precipitation forecasting using radar rainfall data for a time frame within a few hours from the present. However, there is a need for improvement due to the radar rainfall being less accurate than rain-gauge on surface. To improve the radar rainfall and to take advantage of the COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data, a technique to blend the different data types for very short range forecasting purposes was developed in the present study. The motion vector of precipitation systems are estimated using 1.5km CAPPI (Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) reflectivity by pattern matching method, which indicates the systems' direction and speed of movement and blended radar-COMS rain field is used for initial data. Since the original horizontal resolution of COMS is 4 km while that of radar is about 1 km, spatial downscaling technique is used to downscale the COMS data from 4 to 1 km pixels in order to match with the radar data. The accuracies of rainfall forecasting data were verified utilizing AWS (Automatic Weather System) observed data for an extreme rainfall occurred in the southern part of Korean Peninsula on 25 August 2014. The results of this study will be used as input data for an urban stream real-time flood early warning system and a prediction model of landslide. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (13SCIPS04) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by

  11. Effects of ice-phase cloud microphysics in simulating wintertime precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Jinwon; Cho, Han-Ru; Soong, Sy-Tzai

    1995-11-01

    We compare two numerical experiments to investigate the effects of ice-phase cloud microphysical processes on simulations of wintertime precipitation in the southwestern United States. Results of these simulations, one with and the other without ice-phase microphysics, suggest that an inclusion of ice-phase microphysics plays a crucial role in simulating wintertime precipitation. The simulation that employs both the ice and water-phase microphysics better reproduced the observed spatial distribution of precipitation compared to the one without ice-phase microphysics. The most significant effect of ice-phase microphysics appeared in local production of precipitating particles by collection processes, rather than in local condensation.

  12. (Al, Ti) Gamma Prime Precipitates in a Nickel-Based Superalloy Inconel X-750 Under Heavy Ion Irradiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, He K.; Yao, Zhongwen; Kirk, Marquis A.; Daymond, Mark R.

    2014-07-01

    Phase stability of Ni3(Al, Ti) precipitates in Inconel X-750 under cascade damage was studied using heavy ion irradiation with transmission electron microscope (TEM) in situ observations. From 333 K to 673 K (60 °C to 400 °C), ordered Ni3(Al, Ti) precipitates became completely disordered at low irradiation dose of 0.06 displacement per atom (dpa). At higher dose, a trend of precipitate dissolution occurring under disordered state was observed, which is due to the ballistic mixing effect by irradiation. However, at temperatures greater than 773 K (500 °C), the precipitates stayed ordered up to 5.4 dpa, supporting the view that irradiation-induced disordering/dissolution and thermal recovery reach a balance between 673 K and 773 K (400 °C and 500 °C). Effects of Ti/Al ratio and irradiation dose rate are also discussed.

  13. Computational Simulation of a Heavy Vehicle Trailer Wake

    SciTech Connect

    Ortega, J M; Dunn, T; McCallen, R; Salari, K

    2002-12-04

    To better understand the flow mechanisms that contribute to the aerodynamic drag of heavy vehicles, unsteady large-eddy simulations are performed to model the wake of a truncated trailer geometry above a no-slip surface. The truncation of the heavy vehicle trailer is done to reduce the computational time needed to perform the simulations. Both unsteady and time-averaged results are presented from these simulations for two grids. A comparison of velocity fields with those obtained from a wind tunnel study demonstrate that there is a distinct di.erence in the separated wake of the experimental and computational results, perhaps indicating the influence of the geometry simplification, turbulence model, boundary conditions, or other aspects of the chosen numerical approach.

  14. Inter-comparison of 10-year precipitation simulated by several RCMs for Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Jinming; Fu, Congbin

    2006-12-01

    In phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia, the regional climate has been simulated for July 1988 through December 1998 by five regional climate models and one global variable resolution model. Comparison of the 10-year simulated precipitation with the observations was carried out. The results show that most models have the capacity to reproduce the basic spatial pattern of precipitation for Asia, and the main rainbelt can be reproduced by most models, but there are distinctions in the location and the intensity. Most models overestimate the precipitation over most continental regions. Interannual variability of the precipitation can also be basically simulated, while differences exist between various models and the observations. The biases in the stream field are important reasons behind the simulation errors of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The cumulus scheme and land surface process have large influences on the precipitation simulation. Generally, the Grell cumulus scheme produces more precipitation than the Kuo scheme.

  15. Numerical simulation of an intense precipitation event over Rudraprayag in the central Himalayas during 13-14 September 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Das, S.; Kumar, A.; Niyogi, D.

    2015-10-01

    A recent heavy precipitation event on 13 September 2012 and the associated landslide on 14 September 2012 is one of the most severe calamities that occurred over the Rudraprayag region in Uttarakhand, India. This heavy precipitation event is also emblematic of the natural hazards occuring in the Himalayan region. Study objectives are to present dynamical fields associated with this event, and understand the processes related to the severe storm event, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF ver 3.4) model. A triple-nested WRF model is configured over the Uttarakhand region centered over Ukhimath (30∘30'N; 79 ∘15'E), where the heavy precipitation event is reported. Model simulation of the intense storm on 13 September 2012 is with parameterized and then with explicit convection are examined for the 3 km grid spacing domain. The event was better simulated without the consideration of convection parameterization for the innermost domain. The role of steep orography forcings is notable in rapid dynamical lifting as revealed by the positive vorticity and high reflectivity values and the intensification of the monsoonal storm. Incursion of moist air, in the lower levels, converges at the foothills of the mountains and rise along the orography to form the updraft zone of the storm. Such rapid unstable ascent leads to deep convection and increases the condensation rate of the water vapour forming clouds at a swift rate. This culminates into high intensity precipitation which leads to high amount of surface runoff over regions of susceptible geomorphology causing the landslide. Even for this intense and potentially unsual rainfall event, the processes involved appear to be the `classic' enhanced convective activity by orographic lifting of the moist air, as an important driver of the event.

  16. Sensitivity of diurnal variation in simulated precipitation during East Asian summer monsoon to cumulus parameterization schemes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, In-Jin; Jin, Emilia Kyung; Han, Ji-Young; Kim, So-Young; Kwon, Young

    2015-12-01

    The capability to simulate the diurnal variation of precipitation over East Asia region during the summertime of 2011 is investigated using five different cumulus parameterization schemes with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. A semidiurnal cycle with a 12 h interval over land and a diurnal cycle with a 24 h interval over ocean are commonly found in all simulations, consistent with the observed diurnal cycle. Two observed dominant peaks in the early morning and afternoon are reproduced in all simulations. With overestimated precipitation rate, however, the simulated afternoon peaks occur earlier than the observed peaks by 2 h for the Kain-Fritsch (KF) and Simplified Arakawa-Schubert schemes, and by 3 h for the Betts-Miller-Janjić and Tiedtke schemes. The overestimation of simulated precipitation frequency leads to amplitude and phase errors in the precipitation rate, and the early peak time of simulated precipitation intensity intensifies the phase error in the simulation over land. The KF scheme with alternative trigger function (KFtr) based on moisture advection provides slightly better results in terms of alleviating the overestimated precipitation rate and frequency and delaying the afternoon peaks. Additional sensitivity simulations based on the change of temperature perturbation in the trigger function of the KF and KFtr schemes demonstrate the afternoon peak tends to be delayed as temperature perturbation decreases, implying the significant role of convective initiation frequency in determining diurnal peaks of precipitation. Modulation of temperature perturbation alleviates the precipitation frequency bias, while it could not resolve the precipitation intensity bias.

  17. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2017-07-01

    This study examines the effects of five cumulus closure assumptions on simulations of summer precipitation in the continental U.S. by utilizing an ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation. Results demonstrate that closure algorithms significantly affect the summer mean, daily frequency and intensity, and diurnal variation of precipitation, with strong regional dependence. Overall, the vertical velocity (W) closure produces the smallest summer mean biases, while the moisture convergence (MC) closure most realistically reproduces daily variability. Both closures have advantages over others in simulating U.S. daily rainfall frequency distribution, though both slightly overestimate intense rain events. The MC closure is superior at capturing summer rainfall amount, daily variability, and heavy rainfall frequency over the Central U.S., but systematically produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S., which can be reduced by using the W closure. The instability tendency (TD) and the total instability adjustment (KF) closures are better at capturing observed diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and the NAM, respectively. The results reasonably explain the systematic behaviors of several major cumulus parameterizations. A preliminary experiment combining two optimal closures (averaged moisture convergence and vertical velocity) in the ECP scheme significantly reduced the wet (dry) biases over the Southeast U.S. in the summer of 1993 (2003), and greatly improved daily rainfall correlations over the NAM. Further improved model simulation skills may be achieved in the future if optimal closures and their appropriate weights can be derived at different time scales based on specific climate regimes.

  18. Effects of cumulus parameterization closures on simulations of summer precipitation over the continental United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiao, Fengxue; Liang, Xin-Zhong

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the effects of five cumulus closure assumptions on simulations of summer precipitation in the continental U.S. by utilizing an ensemble cumulus parameterization (ECP) that incorporates multiple alternate closure schemes into a single cloud model formulation. Results demonstrate that closure algorithms significantly affect the summer mean, daily frequency and intensity, and diurnal variation of precipitation, with strong regional dependence. Overall, the vertical velocity (W) closure produces the smallest summer mean biases, while the moisture convergence (MC) closure most realistically reproduces daily variability. Both closures have advantages over others in simulating U.S. daily rainfall frequency distribution, though both slightly overestimate intense rain events. The MC closure is superior at capturing summer rainfall amount, daily variability, and heavy rainfall frequency over the Central U.S., but systematically produces wet biases over the North American Monsoon (NAM) region and Southeast U.S., which can be reduced by using the W closure. The instability tendency (TD) and the total instability adjustment (KF) closures are better at capturing observed diurnal signals over the Central U.S. and the NAM, respectively. The results reasonably explain the systematic behaviors of several major cumulus parameterizations. A preliminary experiment combining two optimal closures (averaged moisture convergence and vertical velocity) in the ECP scheme significantly reduced the wet (dry) biases over the Southeast U.S. in the summer of 1993 (2003), and greatly improved daily rainfall correlations over the NAM. Further improved model simulation skills may be achieved in the future if optimal closures and their appropriate weights can be derived at different time scales based on specific climate regimes.

  19. Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

    2016-12-01

    Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

  20. Impact of boundary conditions on RegCM4 20-year-long precipitation simulations over CORDEX-East Asia domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Park, J.-H.; Oh, S. G.; Suh, M. S.; Kang, H. S.

    2012-04-01

    capture the strong diurnal variation of precipitation over South Korea. In general, the performance skills of RegCM4 driven by ERA are higher correlation (smaller bias) than that using R2 over the entire domain regardless of the season. Similar results are found in the frequency distribution of precipitation according to the intensity although RegCM4 overestimates weak precipitation below 25mm/day and underestimates heavy precipitation above 25mm/day. The impacts of BCs on the simulated precipitation are underway.

  1. Assessment of realistic nowcasting lead-times based on predictability analysis of Mediterranean Heavy Precipitation Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bech, Joan; Berenguer, Marc

    2014-05-01

    Operational quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) are provided routinely by weather services or hydrological authorities, particularly those responsible for densely populated regions of small catchments, such as those typically found in Mediterranean areas prone to flash-floods. Specific rainfall values are used as thresholds for issuing warning levels considering different time frameworks (mid-range, short-range, 24h, 1h, etc.), for example 100 mm in 24h or 60 mm in 1h. There is a clear need to determine how feasible is a specific rainfall value for a given lead-time, in particular for very short range forecasts or nowcasts typically obtained from weather radar observations (Pierce et al 2012). In this study we assess which specific nowcast lead-times can be provided for a number of heavy precipitation events (HPE) that affected Catalonia (NE Spain). The nowcasting system we employed generates QPFs through the extrapolation of rainfall fields observed with weather radar following a Lagrangian approach developed and tested successfully in previous studies (Berenguer et al. 2005, 2011).Then QPFs up to 3h are compared with two quality controlled observational data sets: weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and raingauge data. Several high-impact weather HPE were selected including the 7 September 2005 Llobregat Delta river tornado outbreak (Bech et al. 2007) or the 2 November 2008 supercell tornadic thunderstorms (Bech et al. 2011) both producing, among other effects, local flash floods. In these two events there were torrential rainfall rates (30' amounts exceeding 38.2 and 12.3 mm respectively) and 24h accumulation values above 100 mm. A number of verification scores are used to characterize the evolution of precipitation forecast quality with time, which typically presents a decreasing trend but showing an strong dependence on the selected rainfall threshold and integration period. For example considering correlation factors, 30

  2. Numerical simulations of heavy rainfall over central Korea on 21 September 2010 using the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byun, Ui-Yong; Hong, Jinkyu; Hong, Song-You; Shin, Hyeyum Hailey

    2015-06-01

    On 21 September 2010, heavy rainfall with a local maximum of 259 mm d-1 occurred near Seoul, South Korea. We examined the ability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in reproducing this disastrous rainfall event and identified the role of two physical processes: planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics (MPS) processes. The WRF model was forced by 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final analysis (FNL) data for 36 hours form 1200 UTC 20 to 0000 UTC 22 September 2010. Twenty-five experiments were performed, consisting of five different PBL schemes—Yonsei University (YSU), Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ), Quasi Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Bougeault and Lacarrere (BouLac), and University of Washington (UW)—and five different MPS schemes—WRF Single-Moment 6-class (WSM6), Goddard, Thompson, Milbrandt 2-moments, and Morrison 2-moments. As expected, there was a specific combination of MPS and PBL schemes that showed good skill in forecasting the precipitation. However, there was no specific PBL or MPS scheme that outperformed the others in all aspects. The experiments with the UW PBL or Thompson MPS scheme showed a relatively small amount of precipitation. Analyses form the sensitivity experiments confirmed that the spatial distribution of the simulated precipitation was dominated by the PBL processes, whereas the MPS processes determined the amount of rainfall. It was also found that the temporal evolution of the precipitation was influenced more by the PBL processes than by the MPS processes.

  3. A Novel Method for Simulating Stochastic Simulations of Daily Precipitation and Air Temperature at Multiple Sites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, K.; Strong, C.; Rassoul-Agha, F.

    2016-12-01

    A parametric stochastic weather generator (SWG) is introduced that simulates trended, nonstationary precipitation and temperature values directly, circumventing the conventional approach of adding simulated standardized anomalies of temperature to a prescribed cyclostationary mean. The model mean makes autocorrelated transitions between wet- and dry-state values, and its parameters are determined by optimizing harmonic and trend terms. If the stochastic ("noise") term is assumed to have constant amplitude, analytical results are available via maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and are equivalent to least squares estimation (LSE). Where observations motivate a seasonally-varying noise coefficient, MLE becomes nonlinear, and we formulate an analytical solution via LSE. For illustration, the SWG is shown to produce realistic representations of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature at multiple sites, which for the study includes the eastern Great Basin in Northern Utah.

  4. The Use of Water Vapor for Detecting Environments that Lead to Convectively Produced Heavy Precipitation and Flash Floods

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scofield, Rod; Vicente, Gilberto; Hodges, Mike

    2000-01-01

    This Tech Report summarizes years of study and experiences on using GOES Water vapor (6.7 micron and precipitable water) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1) from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) derived Precipitable Water (PNAI) for detecting environments favorable for convectively produced flash floods. An emphasis is on the moisture. upper air flow, and equivalent potential temperature (Theta(sub e)) patterns that lead to devastating flood events. The 15 minute 6.7 micron water vapor imagery is essential for tracking middle to upper tropospheric disturbances that produce upward vertical motion and initiate flash flood producing systems. Water vapor imagery at 6.7 micron is also used to detect surges of upper level moisture (called tropical water vapor plumes) that have been associated with extremely heavy rainfall. Since the water vapor readily depicts lifting mechanisms and upper level moisture, water vapor imagery is often an excellent source of data for recognizing patterns of heavy precipitation and flash floods. In order to analyze the depth of the moisture, the PW aspects of the troposphere must be measured. The collocation (or nearby location) of high values ofP\\V and instability are antecedent conditions prior to the flash flood or heavy rainfall events. Knowledge of PW magnitudes have been used as thresholds for impending flash flood events, PW trends are essential in flash flood prediction. Conceptual models and water vapor products are used to study some of the characteristics of convective systems that occurred over the United States of America (USA) during the summer of 1997 and the 1997-1998 El Nino. P\\V plumes were associated with most of the \\vest coast heavy precipitation events examined during the winter season of 1997 - 1998, In another study, conducted during the summer season of 1997. results showed that the collocation of water vapor (6.7 micron) and P\\N' plumes possessed higher correlations with predicted

  5. Sensitivity of a simulated extreme precipitation event to spatial resolution, parametrisations and assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferreira, J.; Carvalho, A.; Carvalheiro, L.; Rocha, A.; Castanheira, J.

    2010-09-01

    In the morning of the 18th of February 2008 Lisbon and Setúbal were under the influence of a heavy rain event associated to a cut-off low formed in southern Azores between the 14th and 15th of February. The total daily precipitation record was exceeded in the 18th of February at Lisboa/Geofísico station; 36 mm of precipitation were registered between 4 and 5 a.m., whereas in Setúbal 60 mm were recorded during one hour (between 11 and 12 a.m.), of the same day. These two cities are located near the mouth of Tagus and Sado rivers, respectively, running to the Atlantic Ocean, and both have experience severe floods. The present work will present the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to different geometric model configurations and physical parametrisations, and to data assimilation procedures for the same grid resolution and physical parametrisations. The WRF model is running in operational mode for Portugal at the University of Aveiro in two different horizontal and vertical resolution and physical set of parametrisations, driven by the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts. The first configuration (OP1) is shown in http://climetua.fis.ua.pt/main/otempo.php?lang=pt and consists of two nested domains and 27 vertical levels, the coarsest domain (25 km) covering the Iberian Peninsula and part of the East Atlantic and the finer grid domain (5 km) covering Portugal. For the second configuration (OP2) (shown in http://www2.fis.ua.pt/torre/luis/), the outer and inner domains have a horizontal resolution of 21 and 7 km, respectively. The physics parametrisation of the two operational designs differ on the microphysics and cumulus schemes, and on the applied land surface model, which are named respectively for: (i) OP1 - WSM 6 class graupel microphysics scheme, Grell-Devenyi ensemble cumulus scheme and Unified Noah land-surface model; (ii) OP2 - Ferrier microphysics scheme, Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and Thermal diffusion land-surface model

  6. Investigating the Effectiveness of Mineral Precipitate as a Tool in the Removal of Heavy Metals from Mine Waters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abongwa, P. T.; Geyer, C.; Puckette, J.

    2014-12-01

    Mine water from a precious metal mine in Colorado drains into an underground tunnel and flows for about 8 km before being discharged into a series of sequentially connected settling ponds (5) aimed at removing suspended particulate. Our results suggest these ponds also remove heavy metals from solution through adsorption and mineral precipitation. Analyses of the precipitates and water in the settling ponds showed relatively higher metal concentration on the precipitates than in the corresponding aqueous solutions. Speciation modeling showed that the precipitates were mainly travertine, ferrihydrite, fe-oxyhdroxide and gypsum and these are expected to provide surfaces for metal adsorption. Overall, the average concentrations of trace metals were such that, Al concentration was 0.0 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 9.4 mg/L for the precipitate; Fe concentration was 0.04 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 20.1 mg/L for the precipitate; Mn concentration was 0.2 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 10.2 mg/L for the precipitate; Sr concentration was 3 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 8 mg/L for the precipitate; Zn concentration was 0.1 mg/L for the aqueous sample and 1.4 mg/L for the precipitate. Sulfate concentrations in solutions (1346 mg/L) were about seventeen times higher than on the precipitate (80 mg/L). As the water exits the tunnel, its carbon is expected to consistently decrease over space as it moves along the settling ponds while precipitating carbonates. The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations showed consistent drop from 109 mg/L at the tunnel exit to 96 mg/L at middle pond and 92 mg/L at the exit pond, which corresponds to decreasing pCO2 and removal of carbon from solution through travertine precipitation and CO2 outgassing. This data indicate a strong influence of mineral precipitate as an effective component in the attenuation of metals in mine

  7. Hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (heavy) simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hammond, R. A.; Mcgehee, R. K.

    1981-01-01

    A computer program to simulate hybrid and electric advanced vehicle systems (HEAVY) is described. It is intended for use early in the design process: concept evaluation, alternative comparison, preliminary design, control and management strategy development, component sizing, and sensitivity studies. It allows the designer to quickly, conveniently, and economically predict the performance of a proposed drive train. The user defines the system to be simulated using a library of predefined component models that may be connected to represent a wide variety of propulsion systems. The development of three models are discussed as examples.

  8. Precipitation uncertainty propagation in hydrologic simulations: evaluation over the Iberian Peninsula.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Polcher, Jan; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Eisner, Stephanie; Fink, Gabriel; Kallos, George

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation is arguably one of the most important forcing variables that drive terrestrial water cycle processes. The process of precipitation exhibits significant variability in space and time, is associated with different water phases (liquid or solid) and depends on several other factors (aerosols, orography etc), which make estimation and modeling of this process a particularly challenging task. As such, precipitation information from different sensors/products is associated with uncertainty. Propagation of this uncertainty into hydrologic simulations can have a considerable impact on the accuracy of the simulated hydrologic variables. Therefore, to make hydrologic predictions more useful, it is important to investigate and assess the impact of precipitation uncertainty in hydrologic simulations in order to be able to quantify it and identify ways to minimize it. In this work we investigate the impact of precipitation uncertainty in hydrologic simulations using land surface models (e.g. ORCHIDEE) and global hydrologic models (e.g. WaterGAP3) for the simulation of several hydrologic variables (soil moisture, ET, runoff) over the Iberian Peninsula. Uncertainty in precipitation is assessed by utilizing various sources of precipitation input that include one reference precipitation dataset (SAFRAN), three widely-used satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42v7, CMORPH, PERSIANN) and a state-of-the-art reanalysis product (WFDEI) based on the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. Comparative analysis is based on using the SAFRAN-simulations as reference and it is carried out at different space (0.5deg or regional average) and time (daily or seasonal) scales. Furthermore, as an independent verification, simulated discharge is compared against available discharge observations for selected major rivers of Iberian region. Results allow us to draw conclusions regarding the impact of precipitation uncertainty with respect to i) hydrologic variable of interest, ii

  9. Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

    DOE PAGES

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; ...

    2014-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved.more » The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.« less

  10. Calibration of a convective parameterization scheme in the WRF model and its impact on the simulation of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Huang, Anning; Yan, Huiping

    2014-03-26

    Reasonably modeling the magnitude, south-north gradient and seasonal propagation of precipitation associated with the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is a challenging task in the climate community. In this study we calibrate five key parameters in the Kain-Fritsch convection scheme in the WRF model using an efficient importance-sampling algorithm to improve the EASM simulation. We also examine the impacts of the improved EASM precipitation on other physical process. Our results suggest similar model sensitivity and values of optimized parameters across years with different EASM intensities. By applying the optimal parameters, the simulated precipitation and surface energy features are generally improved. The parameters related to downdraft, entrainment coefficients and CAPE consumption time (CCT) can most sensitively affect the precipitation and atmospheric features. Larger downdraft coefficient or CCT decrease the heavy rainfall frequency, while larger entrainment coefficient delays the convection development but build up more potential for heavy rainfall events, causing a possible northward shift of rainfall distribution. The CCT is the most sensitive parameter over wet region and the downdraft parameter plays more important roles over drier northern region. Long-term simulations confirm that by using the optimized parameters the precipitation distributions are better simulated in both weak and strong EASM years. Due to more reasonable simulated precipitation condensational heating, the monsoon circulations are also improved. Lastly, by using the optimized parameters the biases in the retreating (beginning) of Mei-yu (northern China rainfall) simulated by the standard WRF model are evidently reduced and the seasonal and sub-seasonal variations of the monsoon precipitation are remarkably improved.

  11. Numerical Simulations of Urea Hydrolysis and Calcite Precipitation in Porous Media Using STOMP

    SciTech Connect

    Luanjing Guo; Hai Huang; Bill X. Hu

    2010-11-01

    Subsurface radionuclide and trace metal contaminants throughout the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex pose one of DOE’s greatest challenges for long-term stewardship. One promising in situ immobilization approach of these contaminants is engineered mineral (co)precipitation of calcite driven by urea hydrolysis that is catalyzed by enzyme urease. The tight nonlinear coupling among flow, transport, reaction and reaction-induced property changes of media of this approach was studied by reactive transport simulations with systematically increasing level of complexities of reaction network and physical/chemical heterogeneities using a numerical simulator named STOMP. Sensitivity studies on the reaction rates of both urea hydrolysis and calcite precipitation are performed via controlling urease enzyme concentration and precipitation rate constant according to the rate models employed. We have found that the rate of ureolysis is a dominating factor in the amount of precipitated mineral; however, the spatial distribution of the precipitates depends on both rates of ureolysis and calcite precipitation. A maximum 5% reduction in the porosity was observed within the simulation time period of 6 pore volumes in our 1-dimensional (1D) column simulations. When a low permeability inclusion is considered in the 2D simulations, the altered flow fields redistribute mineral forming constituents, leading to a distorted precipitation reaction front. The simulations also indicate that mineral precipitation occurs along the boundary of the low permeability zone, which implies that contaminants in the low permeability zone could be encapsulated and isolated from the flow paths.

  12. Community Response to a Heavy Precipitation Event in High Temperature, Chemosynthetic Biofilms and Sediments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer-Dombard, D. R.; Loiacono, S. T.; Shock, E.

    2012-12-01

    Coordinated analysis of the "Bison Pool" (BP) Environmental Genome and a complementary contextual geochemical dataset of ~75 parameters revealed biogeochemical cycling and metabolic and microbial community shifts in a Yellowstone National Park hot spring ecosystem (1). The >22m outflow of BP is a gradient of decreasing temperature, increasing dissolved oxygen, and changing availability of nutrients. Microbial life at BP transitions from a 92°C chemosynthetic community in the BP source pool to a 56°C photosynthetic mat community. Metagenomic data at BP showed the potential for both heterotrophic and autotrophic carbon metabolism (rTCA and acetyl-CoA cycles) in the highest temperature, chemosynthetic regions (1). This region of the outflow is dominated by Aquificales and Pyrococcus relatives, with smaller contributions of heterotrophic Bacteria. Following a 2h heavy precipitation event we observed an influx of exogenous organic material into the source pool supplied from the meadow surrounding the BP area. We sampled biomass and fluid at several locations within the outflow immediately following the event, and on several occasions for the next eight days. Elemental analysis and carbon and nitrogen isotopic analyses were conducted on biomass and sediment, and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon content and δ13C of fluids were analyzed. DNA and RNA were extracted, and following RT-PCR, nitrogen cycle functional gene expression was evaluated. Previous work at BP has shown that chemosynthetic biomass may carry isotopic signatures of fractionation during carbon fixation, via the acetyl-CoA and rTCA cycles (2). However, the addition of exogenous organic carbon during the rain event had an immediate and dramatic effect on the sediments and biofilms in the chemosynthetic zone of the outflow. Dissolved organic carbon was the highest measured in six years. Chemosynthetic biomass responded by incorporating the organic carbon. Carbon isotopic signatures in chemosynthetic

  13. Comparison of the Variability of Precipitation and Column Water Vapor Between Satellite Data and Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, X.; Kao, A.; Li, L.; Yung, Y. L.

    2015-12-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in the hydrological cycle on Earth. Based on the long-term Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) V2.2 precipitation datasets, our recent study [Li et al., 2011; Trammell et al., 2015] revealed that the precipitation increased over the wet area (i.e., monthly precipitation > 200 mm) and decreased over the dry area (i.e., monthly precipitation < 50 mm) during the past two decades. To better understand the temporal variations of precipitation and water vapor, we studied the recycling rate of atmospheric moisture, a ratio between precipitation and column water vapor, from 13 CMIP5 models and two observational datasets (SSM/I and GPCP). The comparison between observations and model simulations suggests that most CMIP5 models can capture the two main characteristics of recycling rate: (1) long-term decreasing trend of global-average oceanic recycling rate and (2) dominant spatial patterns of the temporal variations of recycling rate (i.e., increasing in Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and decreasing in sub-tropical region). All models except one successfully simulate not only the long-term trend but also inter-annual variability of the water vapor column. The agreement between simulations of precipitation in different models is relatively poor, which lead to the discrepancy in the recycling rate between the observations and CMIP5 models. Comparison of spatial patterns also suggests that the CMIP5 models simulate column water vapor better than precipitation. Our comparative studies indicate scope for improvements in the simulations of precipitation, especially for the relatively short time-scale variations, to better simulate the recycling rate of atmospheric moisture, an important indicator of climate change.

  14. The precipitation of energetic heavy ions into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horanyi, M.; Cravens, T. E.; Waite, J. H., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Evidence for auroral particle precipitation at Jupiter was provided by the ultraviolet spectrometers onboard the Voyagers 1 and 2 spacecraft and by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE). Magnetospheric measurements made by instruments onboard the Voyager spacecraft show that energetic sulfur and oxygen ions are precipitating into the upper atmosphere of Jupiter. A theoretical model has been constructed describing the interaction of precipitating oxygen with the Jovian atmosphere. The auroral energy is deposited in the atmosphere by means of ionization, excitation, and dissociation and heating of the atmospheric gas. Energetic ion and electron precipitation are shown to have similar effects on the atmosphere and ionosphere of Jupiter.

  15. The role of precipitation size distributions in km-scale NWP simulations of intense precipitation: Evaluation of cloud properties and surface precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Van Weverberg K.; Vogelmann A.; van Lipzig, N. P. M.; Delobbec, L.

    2012-04-01

    We investigate the sensitivity of simulated cloud properties and surface precipitation to assumptions regarding the size distributions of the precipitating hydrometeors in a one-moment bulk microphysics scheme. Three sensitivity experiments were applied to two composites of 15 convective and 15 frontal stratiform intense precipitation events observed in a coastal midlatitude region (Belgium), which were evaluated against satellite-retrieved cloud properties and radar-rain-gauge derived surface precipitation. It is found that the cloud optical thickness distribution was well captured by all experiments, although a significant underestimation of cloudiness occurred in the convective composite. The cloud-top-pressure distribution was improved most by more realistic snow size distributions (including a temperature-dependent intercept parameter and non-spherical snow for the calculation of the slope parameter), due to increased snow depositional growth at high altitudes. Surface precipitation was far less sensitive to whether graupel or hail was chosen as the rimed ice species, as compared to previous idealized experiments. This smaller difference in sensitivity could be explained by the stronger updraught velocities and higher freezing levels in the idealized experiments compared to typical coastal midlatitude environmental conditions.

  16. Light and heavy fractions of soil organic matter in response to climate warming and increased precipitation in a temperate steppe.

    PubMed

    Song, Bing; Niu, Shuli; Zhang, Zhe; Yang, Haijun; Li, Linghao; Wan, Shiqiang

    2012-01-01

    Soil is one of the most important carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools and plays a crucial role in ecosystem C and N cycling. Climate change profoundly affects soil C and N storage via changing C and N inputs and outputs. However, the influences of climate warming and changing precipitation regime on labile and recalcitrant fractions of soil organic C and N remain unclear. Here, we investigated soil labile and recalcitrant C and N under 6 years' treatments of experimental warming and increased precipitation in a temperate steppe in Northern China. We measured soil light fraction C (LFC) and N (LFN), microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), dissolved organic C (DOC) and heavy fraction C (HFC) and N (HFN). The results showed that increased precipitation significantly stimulated soil LFC and LFN by 16.1% and 18.5%, respectively, and increased LFC:HFC ratio and LFN:HFN ratio, suggesting that increased precipitation transferred more soil organic carbon into the quick-decayed carbon pool. Experimental warming reduced soil labile C (LFC, MBC, and DOC). In contrast, soil heavy fraction C and N, and total C and N were not significantly impacted by increased precipitation or warming. Soil labile C significantly correlated with gross ecosystem productivity, ecosystem respiration and soil respiration, but not with soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that biotic processes rather than abiotic factors determine variations in soil labile C. Our results indicate that certain soil carbon fraction is sensitive to climate change in the temperate steppe, which may in turn impact ecosystem carbon fluxes in response and feedback to climate change.

  17. Light and Heavy Fractions of Soil Organic Matter in Response to Climate Warming and Increased Precipitation in a Temperate Steppe

    PubMed Central

    Song, Bing; Niu, Shuli; Zhang, Zhe; Yang, Haijun; Li, Linghao; Wan, Shiqiang

    2012-01-01

    Soil is one of the most important carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools and plays a crucial role in ecosystem C and N cycling. Climate change profoundly affects soil C and N storage via changing C and N inputs and outputs. However, the influences of climate warming and changing precipitation regime on labile and recalcitrant fractions of soil organic C and N remain unclear. Here, we investigated soil labile and recalcitrant C and N under 6 years' treatments of experimental warming and increased precipitation in a temperate steppe in Northern China. We measured soil light fraction C (LFC) and N (LFN), microbial biomass C (MBC) and N (MBN), dissolved organic C (DOC) and heavy fraction C (HFC) and N (HFN). The results showed that increased precipitation significantly stimulated soil LFC and LFN by 16.1% and 18.5%, respectively, and increased LFC∶HFC ratio and LFN∶HFN ratio, suggesting that increased precipitation transferred more soil organic carbon into the quick-decayed carbon pool. Experimental warming reduced soil labile C (LFC, MBC, and DOC). In contrast, soil heavy fraction C and N, and total C and N were not significantly impacted by increased precipitation or warming. Soil labile C significantly correlated with gross ecosystem productivity, ecosystem respiration and soil respiration, but not with soil moisture and temperature, suggesting that biotic processes rather than abiotic factors determine variations in soil labile C. Our results indicate that certain soil carbon fraction is sensitive to climate change in the temperate steppe, which may in turn impact ecosystem carbon fluxes in response and feedback to climate change. PMID:22479373

  18. Precipitation scaling with temperature in warm and cold climates: An analysis of CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Guangqi; Harrison, Sandy P.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Izumi, Kenji; Colin Prentice, I.

    2013-08-01

    investigate the scaling between precipitation and temperature changes in warm and cold climates using six models that have simulated the response to both increased CO2 and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) boundary conditions. Globally, precipitation increases in warm climates and decreases in cold climates by between 1.5%/°C and 3%/°C. Precipitation sensitivity to temperature changes is lower over the land than over the ocean and lower over the tropical land than over the extratropical land, reflecting the constraint of water availability. The wet tropics get wetter in warm climates and drier in cold climates, but the changes in dry areas differ among models. Seasonal changes of tropical precipitation in a warmer world also reflect this "rich get richer" syndrome. Precipitation seasonality is decreased in the cold-climate state. The simulated changes in precipitation per degree temperature change are comparable to the observed changes in both the historical period and the LGM.

  19. Fingering dynamics driven by a precipitation reaction: Nonlinear simulations.

    PubMed

    Shukla, Priyanka; De Wit, A

    2016-02-01

    A fingering instability can develop at the interface between two fluids when the more mobile fluid is injected into the less-mobile one. For example, viscous fingering appears when a less viscous (i.e., more mobile) fluid displaces a more viscous (and hence less mobile) one in a porous medium. Fingering can also be due to a local change in mobility arising when a precipitation reaction locally decreases the permeability. We numerically analyze the properties of the related precipitation fingering patterns occurring when an A+B→C chemical reaction takes place, where A and B are reactants in solution and C is a solid product. We show that, similarly to reactive viscous fingering patterns, the precipitation fingering structures differ depending on whether A invades B or vice versa. This asymmetry can be related to underlying asymmetric concentration profiles developing when diffusion coefficients or initial concentrations of the reactants differ. In contrast to reactive viscous fingering, however, precipitation fingering patterns appear at shorter time scales than viscous fingers because the solid product C has a diffusivity tending to zero which destabilizes the displacement. Moreover, contrary to reactive viscous fingering, the system is more unstable with regard to precipitation fingering when the high-concentrated solution is injected into the low-concentrated one or when the faster diffusing reactant displaces the slower diffusing one.

  20. Reproducibility of summertime diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirota, N.; Takayabu, Y. N.

    2015-12-01

    Reproducibility of diurnal precipitation over northern Eurasia simulated by CMIP5 climate models in their historical runs were evaluated, in comparison with station data (NCDC-9813) and satellite data (GSMaP-V5). We first calculated diurnal cycles by averaging precipitation at each local solar time (LST) in June-July-August during 1981-2000 over the continent of northern Eurasia (0-180E, 45-90N). Then we examined occurrence time of maximum precipitation and a contribution of diurnally varying precipitation to the total precipitation.The contribution of diurnal precipitation was about 21% in both NCDC-9813 and GSMaP-V5. The maximum precipitation occurred at 18LST in NCDC-9813 but 16LST in GSMaP-V5, indicating some uncertainties even in the observational datasets. The diurnal contribution of the CMIP5 models varied largely from 11% to 62%, and their timing of the precipitation maximum ranged from 11LST to 20LST. Interestingly, the contribution and the timing had strong negative correlation of -0.65. The models with larger diurnal precipitation showed precipitation maximum earlier around noon. Next, we compared sensitivity of precipitation to surface temperature and tropospheric humidity between 5 models with large diurnal precipitation (LDMs) and 5 models with small diurnal precipitation (SDMs). Precipitation in LDMs showed high sensitivity to surface temperature, indicating its close relationship with local instability. On the other hand, synoptic disturbances were more active in SDMs with a dominant role of the large scale condensation, and precipitation in SDMs was more related with tropospheric moisture. Therefore, the relative importance of the local instability and the synoptic disturbances was suggested to be an important factor in determining the contribution and timing of the diurnal precipitation. Acknowledgment: This study is supported by Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) Program by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

  1. Responses of Soil CO2 Emissions to Extreme Precipitation Regimes: a Simulation on Loess Soil in Semi-arid Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, R.; Zhao, M.; Hu, Y.; Guo, S.

    2016-12-01

    Responses of soil CO2 emission to natural precipitation play an essential role in regulating regional C cycling. With more erratic precipitation regimes, mostly likely of more frequent heavy rainstorms, projected into the future, extreme precipitation would potentially affect local soil moisture, plant growth, microbial communities, and further soil CO2 emissions. However, responses of soil CO2 emissions to extreme precipitation have not yet been systematically investigated. Such performances could be of particular importance for rainfed arable soil in semi-arid regions where soil microbial respiration stress is highly sensitive to temporal distribution of natural precipitation.In this study, a simulated experiment was conducted on bare loess soil from the semi-arid Chinese Loess Plateau. Three precipitation regimes with total precipitation amounts of 150 mm, 300 mm and 600 mm were carried out to simulate the extremely dry, business as usual, and extremely wet summer. The three regimes were individually materialized by wetting soils in a series of sub-events (10 mm or 150 mm). Co2 emissions from surface soil were continuously measured in-situ for one month. The results show that: 1) Evident CO2 emission pulses were observed immediately after applying sub-events, and cumulative CO2 emissions from events of total amount of 600 mm were greater than that from 150 mm. 3) In particular, for the same total amount of 600 mm, wetting regimes by applying four times of 150 mm sub-events resulted in 20% less CO2 emissions than by applying 60 times of 10 mm sub-events. This is mostly because its harsh 150 mm storms introduced more over-wet soil microbial respiration stress days (moisture > 28%). As opposed, for the same total amount of 150 mm, CO2 emissions from wetting regimes by applying 15 times of 10 mm sub-events were 22% lower than by wetting at once with 150 mm water, probably because its deficiency of soil moisture resulted in more over-dry soil microbial respiration

  2. Thermokinetic Simulation of Precipitation in NiTi Shape Memory Alloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cirstea, C. D.; Karadeniz-Povoden, E.; Kozeschnik, E.; Lungu, M.; Lang, P.; Balagurov, A.; Cirstea, V.

    2017-06-01

    Considering classical nucleation theory and evolution equations for the growth and composition change of precipitates, we simulate the evolution of the precipitates structure in the classical stages of nucleation, growth and coarsening using the solid-state transformation Matcalc software. The formation of Ni3Ti, Ni4Ti3 or Ni3Ti2 precipitate is the key to hardening phenomenon of the alloys, which depends on the nickel solubility in the bulk alloys. The microstructural evolution of metastable Ni4Ti3 and Ni3Ti2 precipitates in Ni-rich TiNi alloys is simulated by computational thermokinetics, based on thermodynamic and diffusion databases. The simulated precipitate phase fractions are compared with experimental data.

  3. A Multi-Model/Multi-Forcing Investigation of Precipitation Uncertainty Propagation in Hydrologic Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Anagnostou, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Albergel, C.; Dutra, E. N.; Fink, G.; Martínez de la Torre, A.; Munier, S.; Polcher, J.; Quintana-Segui, P.

    2016-12-01

    In this work we investigate the uncertainty associated with different earth observation precipitation datasets and the propagation of this uncertainty in hydrologic simulations for a number of global hydrologic and land surface models. Specifically, the work presents a comparative analysis of multi-model/multi-forcing simulations for a number of different hydrologic variables (runoff, soil moisture, ET). The area of study is focused over the Iberian Peninsula. Uncertainty in precipitation is assessed by utilizing various sources of precipitation input that include one reference precipitation dataset (SAFRAN), three widely-used satellite precipitation products (TRMM 3B42v7, CMORPH, PERSIANN) and a state-of-the-art reanalysis product based on a downscaled version of the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis. The models used to carry out the hydrologic simulations include the HTESSEL, ORCHIDEE, JULES, WATERGAP3 and SURFEX-TRIP models that participate in the development of a state-of-the-art water resource reanalysis product within the Earth2Observe project (www.earth2observe.eu). Evaluation results are reported with respect to reference (i.e. SAFRAN-based) simulations, as well as independent observations from satellite-based hydrologic estimates (e.g. ESA CCI soil moisture estimates). Results from this work showed that precipitation from different satellite and reanalysis data examined exhibit considerable differences in pattern and magnitude of precipitation values and this causes significant differences in corresponding hydrologic simulations. However, the sensitivity of hydrologic simulations to different precipitation forcing depends highly on the hydrologic variable under consideration. For example surface runoff appears to be highly sensitive to precipitation differences while evapotranspiration fluxes are not so sensitive. Another important finding highlighted from this study was the fact that modeling uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty associated to model structure, is a

  4. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  5. Delaying precipitation by air pollution over the Pearl River Delta: 2. Model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Seoung Soo; Guo, Jianping; Li, Zhanqing

    2016-10-01

    In Part 1 of two companion studies, analyses of observational data over the Pearl River Delta of China showed that larger aerosol concentrations (polluted conditions) resulted in suppressed precipitation before the midafternoon while resulting in enhanced precipitation after the midafternoon when compared to precipitation with smaller aerosol concentrations (clean conditions). This suggests that there is a tipping point in the transition from suppressing to enhancing precipitation with increases in aerosol concentration. This paper aims to identify mechanisms that control the tipping point by performing simulations. Simulations show that during the first three quarters of the 12 h simulation period, aerosol as a radiation absorber suppresses convection and precipitation by inducing greater radiative heating and stability. Convection weakens and precipitation reduces more under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. Due to the suppressed convection, the depletion of convective energy decreases. The reduced depletion of convective energy during the period of the suppressed convection boosts the level of stored energy after this period. The boosted level of stored energy enables updrafts to be strong enough to transport a greater amount of cloud liquid to the freezing level and to levels above it under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. This in turn induces greater freezing-related latent heating, buoyancy, and thus stronger convection and results in the transition from lower precipitation rates during the first three quarters of the simulation period to higher precipitation rates during the last quarter of the period under polluted conditions than under clean conditions.

  6. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: Recommendations for simulating wet and dry years

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Knapp, Alan K.; Avolio, Meghan L.; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J.W.; Collins, Scott L.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Fraser, Lauchlan H.; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J.; Hoover, David L.; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E.; Phillips, Richard P.; Post, Alison K.; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Slette, Ingrid J.; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D.

    2017-01-01

    Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of ‘Drought-Net’, a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites – a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based

  7. Pushing precipitation to the extremes in distributed experiments: recommendations for simulating wet and dry years.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Alan K; Avolio, Meghan L; Beier, Claus; Carroll, Charles J W; Collins, Scott L; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Griffin-Nolan, Robert J; Hoover, David L; Jentsch, Anke; Loik, Michael E; Phillips, Richard P; Post, Alison K; Sala, Osvaldo E; Slette, Ingrid J; Yahdjian, Laura; Smith, Melinda D

    2017-05-01

    Intensification of the global hydrological cycle, ranging from larger individual precipitation events to more extreme multiyear droughts, has the potential to cause widespread alterations in ecosystem structure and function. With evidence that the incidence of extreme precipitation years (defined statistically from historical precipitation records) is increasing, there is a clear need to identify ecosystems that are most vulnerable to these changes and understand why some ecosystems are more sensitive to extremes than others. To date, opportunistic studies of naturally occurring extreme precipitation years, combined with results from a relatively small number of experiments, have provided limited mechanistic understanding of differences in ecosystem sensitivity, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Coordinated distributed experiments (CDEs) arrayed across multiple ecosystem types and focused on water can enhance our understanding of differential ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation extremes, but there are many design challenges to overcome (e.g., cost, comparability, standardization). Here, we evaluate contemporary experimental approaches for manipulating precipitation under field conditions to inform the design of 'Drought-Net', a relatively low-cost CDE that simulates extreme precipitation years. A common method for imposing both dry and wet years is to alter each ambient precipitation event. We endorse this approach for imposing extreme precipitation years because it simultaneously alters other precipitation characteristics (i.e., event size) consistent with natural precipitation patterns. However, we do not advocate applying identical treatment levels at all sites - a common approach to standardization in CDEs. This is because precipitation variability varies >fivefold globally resulting in a wide range of ecosystem-specific thresholds for defining extreme precipitation years. For CDEs focused on precipitation extremes, treatments should be based on

  8. One dimensional simulations of transients in heavy ion injectors

    SciTech Connect

    Barnard, J.J.; Caporaso, G.J.; Yu, S.S.; Eylon, E.

    1993-05-11

    A fast-running time-dependent one-dimensional particle code has been developed to simulate transients in both electrostatic quadrupole and electrostatic column heavy-ion injectors. Two-dimensional effects are incorporated through the use of an approximation to the transverse part of the Laplacian operator. Longitudinal electric fields are solved on a mesh. An external circuit is coupled to the column, and the effect of the beam on the circuit is modeled. Transients such as initial current spikes, space-charge de-bunching, and beam loading of the circuit, are simulated. Future directions for the code include introduction of envelope and centroid equations to provide beam radius and displacement information and the modeling of secondary electron currents arising from beam-spill.

  9. Simulating electron clouds in heavy-ion acceleratorsa)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cohen, R. H.; Friedman, A.; Covo, M. Kireeff; Lund, S. M.; Molvik, A. W.; Bieniosek, F. M.; Seidl, P. A.; Vay, J.-L.; Stoltz, P.; Veitzer, S.

    2005-05-01

    Contaminating clouds of electrons are a concern for most accelerators of positively charged particles, but there are some unique aspects of heavy-ion accelerators for fusion and high-energy density physics which make modeling such clouds especially challenging. In particular, self-consistent electron and ion simulation is required, including a particle advance scheme which can follow electrons in regions where electrons are strongly magnetized, weakly magnetized, and unmagnetized. The approach to such self-consistency is described, and in particular a scheme for interpolating between full-orbit (Boris) and drift-kinetic particle pushes that enables electron time steps long compared to the typical gyroperiod in the magnets. Tests and applications are presented: simulation of electron clouds produced by three different kinds of sources indicates the sensitivity of the cloud shape to the nature of the source; first-of-a-kind self-consistent simulation of electron-cloud experiments on the high-current experiment [L. R. Prost, P. A. Seidl, F. M. Bieniosek, C. M. Celata, A. Faltens, D. Baca, E. Henestroza, J. W. Kwan, M. Leitner, W. L. Waldron, R. Cohen, A. Friedman, D. Grote, S. M. Lund, A. W. Molvik, and E. Morse, "High current transport experiment for heavy ion inertial fusion," Physical Review Special Topics, Accelerators and Beams 8, 020101 (2005)], at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in which the machine can be flooded with electrons released by impact of the ion beam on an end plate, demonstrate the ability to reproduce key features of the ion-beam phase space; and simulation of a two-stream instability of thin beams in a magnetic field demonstrates the ability of the large-time-step mover to accurately calculate the instability.

  10. HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash-flooding in Northwestern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ducrocq, Véronique

    2013-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is frequently affected by heavy precipitation events associated with flash-floods, landslides and mudslides each year that cost several billions of dollars in damage and causing too often casualties. Within the framework of the 10-year international HyMeX program dedicated to the hydrological cycle and related processes in the Mediterranean (http://www.hymex.org), a major field campaign has been dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash-floods from September to November 2012. The 2-month field campaign took place over the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea and its surrounding coastal regions in France, Italy and Spain. The observation strategy aimed at documenting four key components leading to heavy precipitation and flash-flooding in that region: (i) the marine atmospheric flow that transport moist and conditionaly unstable air towards the coasts; (ii) the Mediterranean Sea as a moisture and energy source; (iii) the dynamics and microphysics of the convective systems; (iv) the hydrological processes during flash-floods. During the field campaign about twenty precipitation events were monitored, including mesoscale convective systems, Mediterranean cyclogenesis, shallow-convection orographic precipitation. Three aircraft performed about 250 flight hours for a survey of the upstream flow, the air-sea fluxes and the convective systems. About 700 additional radiosoundings were launched either from HyMeX sites or from operational RS sites in Europe, as well as about 20 boundary layer balloons were launched to monitor the low-level flow over the Mediterranean Sea and the ambient atmospheric conditions. Gliders, Argo floats, drifting buoys and ocean soundings from vessels monitored the Mediterranean Sea during the field campaign. Atmospheric and hydrological instruments such as radars, LIDARS, radiometers, wind profilers, lightning sensors, were deployed over 5 regions in France, Italy and Spain. The presentation will present the general

  11. Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

  12. Simulated Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events at 6 ka

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Bell, J. L.; Sloan, L. C.

    2003-12-01

    Paleoenviromental archives record a range of information about past environments. Three key influences shaping paleoclimate records at a given time plane are the mean state of the climate system, interannual variability, and the frequency and seasonality of extreme climate events. We have employed a high resolution regional climate model (RCM) to test the sensitivity of extreme climate events to 6 ka orbital forcing, using western North America as a case study. Extreme precipitation and temperature events were defined by the distribution of daily precipitation and temperature values in the control simulation. Simulated anomalies (6 ka - control) in the number of extreme precipitation events per year were positive throughout the RCM domain, as were anomalies in the percent of annual precipitation delivered by extreme precipitation events. These annual-scale positive anomalies in extreme precipitation were driven by changes in the seasonality of extreme precipitation events at 6 ka, with January, October and November showing the greatest positive anomalies in percent of monthly precipitation delivered by extreme precipitation events. The frequency and length of extreme temperature events in the western United States was also sensitive to 6 ka orbital forcing. Positive anomalies in the frequency of extreme maximum daily temperature values occurred inland in the RCM domain, with peak anomalies of 24 days/year centered over the Great Basin. Likewise, the number of days/year in which the maximum daily temperature exceeded 32° C increased over land by 24%, with the average heat-wave up to 12 days longer in the 6 ka simulation than in the control simulation. Finally, mean first and last freeze dates were later inland in the 6 ka simulation than in the control simulation.

  13. Sub-daily precipitation disaggregation for a simulation of annual runoff maxima

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sikorska, Anna; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Measurement of precipitation has been often restricted to daily totals only. This applies especially to observations from the previous century which constitutes a valuable source of long-term precipitation records needed for statistical analysis such as for annual runoff maxima. In this respect, the knowledge about the exact temporal distribution of these precipitation totals at sub-daily time steps can play an important role on the magnitude of simulated runoff maxima using these data. But it is difficult to estimate the sub-daily temporal distribution of precipitation if it was not measured. Instead, the effect of the precipitation in the form of runoff measured at the catchment outlet, which is usually available at sub-daily time steps for longer periods, provides an alternative to evaluate the potential effect of the need to disaggregate precipitation data. In this study we assess how the choice of the temporal distribution of daily precipitation totals might affect the simulation of the catchment runoff annual maxima when using a hydrological model. To examine this issue, we tested six different settings of precipitation total distribution within the day. These are: 1) uniform distribution (daily totals uniquely divided over 24 hours); all daily totals fall within a respective time window, i.e., 2) one hour, 3) two successive hours, 4) three successive hours, 5) six successive hours, and 6) twelve successive hours, each time randomly selected for each observation day independently. To assess the effect on simulated runoff maxima, such generated hourly precipitation datasets were next used as input into a pre-calibrated HBV model. As a reference, we used model simulations with observed hourly precipitation data. This study was conducted using thirty years of precipitation and runoff observations in three Swiss catchments. Our results showed that the annual maxima were best simulated when distributing daily totals over twelve successive hours randomly selected

  14. The sensitivity of precipitation simulations to the soot aerosol presence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palamarchuk, Iuliia; Ivanov, Sergiy; Mahura, Alexander; Ruban, Igor

    2016-04-01

    The role of aerosols in nonlinear feedbacks on atmospheric processes is in a focus of many researches. Particularly, the importance of black carbon particles for evolution of physical weather including precipitation formation and release is investigated by numerical modelling as well as observation networks. However, certain discrepancies between results obtained by different methods are remained. The increasing of complexity in numerical weather modelling systems leads to enlarging a volume of output data and promises to reveal new aspects in complexity of interactions and feedbacks. The Harmonie-38h1.2 model with the AROME physical package is used to study changes in precipitation life-cycle under black carbon polluted conditions. A model configuration includes a radar data assimilation procedure on a high resolution domain covering the Scandinavia region. Model results show that precipitation rate and distribution as well as other variables of atmospheric dynamics and physics over the domain are sensitive to aerosol concentrations. The attention should also be paid to numerical aspects, such as a list of observation types involved in assimilation. The use of high resolution radar information allows to include mesoscale features in initial conditions and to decrease the growth rate of a model error with the lead time.

  15. First-principle Simulations of Heavy Fermion Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, Ruanchen

    Heavy fermion materials, one of the most challenging topics in condensed matter physics, pose a variety of interesting properties and have attracted extensive studies for decades. Although there has been great success in explaining many ground- state properties of solids, the well-known theoretical calculations based on density functional theory (DFT) in its popular local density approximation (LDA) fail to describe heavy fermion materials due to improper treatment of many-body correlation effects. Here with the implementations of dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT) and the Gutzwiller variational method, the computational simulation of the heavy fermion materials is explored further and better compared with experimental data. In this dissertation, first, the theoretical background of DMFT and LDA+G methods is described in detail. The rest is the application of these techniques and is basically divided into two parts. First, the continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo (CT-QMC) method combined with DMFT is used to calculate and compare both the periodic Anderson model (PAM) and the Kondo lattice model (KLM). Different parameter sets of both models are connected by the Schrieffer-Wolff transformation. For spin and orbital degeneracy N = 2 case, a special particle-hole symmetric case of PAM at half-filling which always fixes one electron per impurity site is compared with the results of the KLM. We find a good mapping between PAM and KLM in the limit of large on-site Hubbard interaction U for different properties like self-energy, quasiparticle residue and susceptibility. This allows us to extract quasiparticle mass renormalizations for the f-electrons directly from KLM. The method is further applied to higher degenerate cases and to the realistic heavy fermion system CeRhIn5 in which the estimate of the Sommerfeld coefficient is proven to be close to the experimental value. Second, a series of Cerium based heavy fermion materials is studied using a combination of local

  16. Dependence of ion concentration in simulated body fluid on apatite precipitation on titania surface

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakaguchi, Akira; Nakano, Masayuki; Hieda, Junko; Ohtake, Naoto; Akasaka, Hiroki

    2015-08-01

    Titanium and its alloys are used as biomaterials, because of their high biocompatibility. Apatite precipitates on a titania surface in vivo, and living bone and titanium alloy are coupled through the thin apatite layer. The initial precipitation behavior of apatite on titania in simulated body fluid (SBF) solutions was evaluated and the effect of inorganic ions in the SBF was investigated. Measurement using the SPR phenomenon was used to evaluate the initial apatite precipitation. An SBF containing approximately equal ion concentrations to those in blood plasma was added to a titania surface and the SPR profile was obtained, from which the initial apatite precipitation rate was found to be 1.14 nm/h. Furthermore, the relationship between the inorganic concentration and the precipitation rate was determined for SBFs with different Na+ and Ca2+ concentrations. Apatite precipitation did not occur in the SBF with a low Na+ concentration, whereas the initial apatite precipitation rate in the SBF that did not contain Ca2+ was 0.32 nm/h. According to these results, Ca2+ has little effect on the initial apatite precipitation. In the initial reaction of apatite precipitation, sodium titanate is formed by the absorption of Na+. Next, calcium titanate precipitates upon the substitution of Na+ with Ca2+. Finally, Na+, phosphate ions and hydroxyl ions are attracted to the surface and apatite is formed. Thus, the rate-limiting factor in the initial nucleation of apatite is the Na+ concentration.

  17. Effects of topographic smoothing on the simulation of winter precipitation in High Mountain Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannon, Forest; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Norris, Jesse; Bookhagen, Bodo; Kiladis, George N.

    2017-02-01

    Numerous studies have projected future changes in High Mountain Asia water resources based on temperature and precipitation from global circulation models (GCMs) under future climate scenarios. Although the potential benefit of such studies is immense, coarse grid-scale GCMs are unable to resolve High Mountain Asia's complex topography and thus have a biased representation of regional weather and climate. This study investigates biases in the simulation of physical mechanisms that generate snowfall and contribute to snowpack in High Mountain Asia in coarse topography experiments using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Regional snowpack is event driven, thus 33 extreme winter orographic precipitation events are simulated at fine atmospheric resolution with 6.67 km resolution topography and smoothed 1.85° × 1.25° GCM topography. As with many modified topography experiments performed in other regions, the distribution of precipitation is highly dependent on first-order orographic effects, which dominate regional meteorology. However, we demonstrate that topographic smoothing enhances circulation in simulated extratropical cyclones, with significant impacts on orographic precipitation. Despite precipitation reductions of 28% over the highest ranges, due to reduced ascent on windward slopes, total precipitation over the study domain increased by an average of 9% in smoothed topography experiments on account of intensified extratropical cyclone dynamics and cross-barrier moisture flux. These findings identify an important source of bias in coarse-resolution simulated precipitation in High Mountain Asia, with important implications for the application of GCMs toward projecting future hydroclimate in the region.

  18. Evaluation of summer precipitation from EURO-CORDEX fine-scale RCM simulations over Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verpe Dyrrdal, Anita; Stordal, Frode; Lussana, Cristian

    2016-04-01

    Regional climate models is a valuable tool for local climate adaptation. Accurate estimates of future climate conditions are increasingly important, and in Norway precipitation is of special interest. Extreme precipitation, particularly over short durations, are responsible for enormous damages to important infrastructure, hence information on a fine spatial and temporal scale is crucial. We evaluate the ability of 7 fine-scale regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble in reproducing 3-hourly and daily summer precipitation characteristics in Norway, with an emphasis on extremes. The two-step evaluation includes comparison of modeled precipitation to gridded observation-based datasets and station measurements, in terms of the following indices: Summer maxima, summer wet event frequency, and total summer precipitation. We find a general overestimation by the models for all indices, with only few exceptions. Country-wide spatial averages show however that simulated summer extremes are mainly within the uncertainty interval of the reference dataset. A stronger overestimation of daily maxima compared to 3-hour maxima is evident, while the spread between models is larger for summer totals. We also find that the spatial distribution is fairly well simulated although the range of values in most models is too small. We believe that the high spatial resolution of 0.11° improves the simulations of extreme precipitation in Norway, especially in areas of orographic enhancement. However, a larger ensemble would be required in order to develop bias correction methods and analyse future projections of precipitation.

  19. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

    DOE PAGES

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

    2014-02-25

    Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continentalmore » regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.« less

  20. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

    SciTech Connect

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Phillips, Thomas J.

    2014-02-25

    Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi-model ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (e.g., the 75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g. western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The Quantile Bias (QB) analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. Lastly, we found that a simple mean-field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values, but does not make a significant improvement in these model performance metrics at high quantiles of precipitation.

  1. Simulating Electron Clouds in Heavy-Ion Accelerators

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, R.H.; Friedman, A.; Kireeff Covo, M.; Lund, S.M.; Molvik,A.W.; Bieniosek, F.M.; Seidl, P.A.; Vay, J-L.; Stoltz, P.; Veitzer, S.

    2005-04-07

    Contaminating clouds of electrons are a concern for most accelerators of positive-charged particles, but there are some unique aspects of heavy-ion accelerators for fusion and high-energy density physics which make modeling such clouds especially challenging. In particular, self-consistent electron and ion simulation is required, including a particle advance scheme which can follow electrons in regions where electrons are strongly-, weakly-, and un-magnetized. They describe their approach to such self-consistency, and in particular a scheme for interpolating between full-orbit (Boris) and drift-kinetic particle pushes that enables electron time steps long compared to the typical gyro period in the magnets. They present tests and applications: simulation of electron clouds produced by three different kinds of sources indicates the sensitivity of the cloud shape to the nature of the source; first-of-a-kind self-consistent simulation of electron-cloud experiments on the High-Current Experiment (HCX) at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in which the machine can be flooded with electrons released by impact of the ion beam and an end plate, demonstrate the ability to reproduce key features of the ion-beam phase space; and simulation of a two-stream instability of thin beams in a magnetic field demonstrates the ability of the large-timestep mover to accurately calculate the instability.

  2. SIMULATION OF INTENSE BEAMS FOR HEAVY ION FUSION

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, A

    2004-06-10

    Computer simulations of intense ion beams play a key role in the Heavy Ion Fusion research program. Along with analytic theory, they are used to develop future experiments, guide ongoing experiments, and aid in the analysis and interpretation of experimental results. They also afford access to regimes not yet accessible in the experimental program. The U.S. Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory and its collaborators have developed state-of-the art computational tools, related both to codes used for stationary plasmas and to codes used for traditional accelerator applications, but necessarily differing from each in important respects. These tools model beams in varying levels of detail and at widely varying computational cost. They include moment models (envelope equations and fluid descriptions), particle-in-cell methods (electrostatic and electromagnetic), nonlinear-perturbative descriptions (''{delta}f''), and continuum Vlasov methods. Increasingly, it is becoming clear that it is necessary to simulate not just the beams themselves, but also the environment in which they exist, be it an intentionally-created plasma or an unwanted cloud of electrons and gas. In this paper, examples of the application of simulation tools to intense ion beam physics are presented, including support of present-day experiments, fundamental beam physics studies, and the development of future experiments. Throughout, new computational models are described and their utility explained. These include Mesh Refinement (and its dynamic variant, Adaptive Mesh Refinement); improved electron cloud and gas models, and an electron advance scheme that allows use of larger time steps; and moving-mesh and adaptive-mesh Vlasov methods.

  3. Terascale simulations for heavy ion inertial fusion energy

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, A; Cohen, R H; Grote, D P; Sharp, W M; Celata, C M; Lee, E P; Vay, J-L; Davidson, R C; Kaganovich, I; Lee, W W; Qin, H; Welch, D R; Haber, I; Kishek, R A

    2000-06-08

    The intense ion beams in a heavy ion Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE) driver and fusion chamber are non-neutral plasmas whose dynamics are largely dominated by space charge. We propose to develop a ''source-to-target'' Heavy Ion Fusion (HIF) beam simulation capability: a description of the kinetic behavior of this complex, nonlinear system which is both integrated and detailed. We will apply this new capability to further our understanding of key scientific issues in the physics of ion beams for IFE. The simulations will entail self-consistent field descriptions that require interprocessor communication, but are scalable and will run efficiently on terascale architectures. This new capability will be based on the integration of three types of simulations, each requiring terascale computing: (1) simulations of acceleration and confinement of the space-charge-dominated ion beams through the driver (accelerator, pulse compression line, and final focusing system) which accurately describe their dynamics, including emittance growth (phase-space dilution) effects; these are particle-in-cell (PIC) models; (2) electromagnetic (EM) and magnetoinductive (Darwin) simulations which describe the beam and the fusion chamber environment, including multibeam, neutralization, stripping, beam and plasma ionization processes, and return current effects; and (3) highly detailed simulations (6f, multispecies PIC, continuum Vlasov), which can examine electron effects and collective modes in the driver and chamber, and can study halo generation with excellent statistics, to ensure that these effects do not disrupt the focusability of the beams. The code development will involve: (i) adaptation of existing codes to run efficiently on multi-SMP computers that use a hybrid of shared and distributed memory; (ii) development of new and improved numerical algorithms, e.g., averaging techniques that will afford larger timesteps; and (iii) incorporation of improved physics models (e.g., for self

  4. Simulation of γ' Precipitation Kinetics in a Commercial Ni-Base Superalloy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fahrmann, M. G.; Metzler, D. A.

    2016-11-01

    The ability to accurately simulate the precipitation kinetics of γ' and other strengthening phases in Ni-base superalloys is of great interest to industry. Several commercial simulation tools such as TC-PRISMA (Thermo-Calc, Sweden) and PanPrecipitation (Computherm, USA) have been made available in recent years. This paper reports the outcome of a validation study on wrought Ni-base superalloy HAYNES® 282® alloy for two scenarios of commercial interest: (1) the precipitation of γ' during continuous cooling, and (2) the precipitation of γ' during two-step aging. The simulation results are validated against experimental data. Any discrepancies are discussed in the context of the uncertainty in key material properties (such as interfacial energies), model assumptions, and experimental errors.

  5. The impact of the hailstone embryos on simulated surface precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovačević, Nemanja; Ćurić, Mladjen

    2013-10-01

    Hailstorms cause significant damage to agriculture and property in many areas of the world. Therefore, it is useful to describe the size spectrum of hail and the mechanisms of formation in more detail. One important point in the formation of hail is the role of hailstone embryos, and an understanding of their mechanism would significantly improve our understanding of the evolution of hail, as well as the predicted amount of accumulated hail on the ground. We used a cloud-resolving mesoscale model to investigate the influence of the hailstone embryos on the measured ground precipitation. In this model, both types of the hailstone embryos (graupel and frozen raindrops) are incorporated. Therefore, the model predicts the mass and number concentration of the six microphysical elements - raindrops, ice crystals, snow, graupel, frozen raindrops and hail. The cloud droplet number concentration was prescribed. Thus, the primary goal of this sensitivity study was to examine the influence of hailstone embryos on the measured ground precipitation and the duration of precipitation. Thus, we performed a numerical comparison of the two microphysical schemes, one with hailstone embryos and the other without them. The sensitivity study indicated that the microphysical scenario with hailstone embryos leads to a greater increase in accumulated hail compared with the scheme without hailstone embryos. The time of hail occurrence on the ground occurs during the early stages of cloud life in the experiment without hailstone embryos. In the second case, the hail occurrence on the ground was delayed for the later stages of cloud life, which is much more realistic and in agreement with the measurements. The use of a model with hailstone embryos leads to a better description of the evolution of hail and a more accurate prediction of the accumulated hail on the ground.

  6. Impact of AWiFS derived land use land cover on simulation of heavy rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karri, Srinivasarao; Gharai, Biswadip; Sai Krishna, S. V. S.; Rao, P. V. N.

    2016-05-01

    Land use/land cover (LU/LC) changes are considered to be one of the most important factors affecting regional climate and are thus an area of public concern. The land surface plays a crucial role in boundary layer evolution and precipitation patterns thereby establishing the need for LU/LC inputs as a critical part of modeling systems. Inaccurate LU/LC information often leads to very large errors in surface energy fluxes thus leading to errors in boundary layer state. We have investigated an incident of heavy rainfall during August 2015 over West Bengal, India using Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model by incorporating different LU/LC datasets, IRS P6 Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) LU/LC data for 2012-13 and the default Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) derived USGS LU/LC data for 2001. In the present study, we have made a comparative assessment between AWiFS derived LU/LC and USGS LU/LC by incorporating these datasets as one of the lower boundary conditions over Indian region in WRF model version 3.5.1 to simulate, at 10km resolution, a heavy rainfall event associated with landfall of a cyclonic system over West Bengal. The results of the study suggested influence of LU/LC in occurrence of heavy rainfall with WRF model using AWiFS LU/LC showing more realistic simulation as AWiFS LU/LC is more up-to-date and features recent changes in LU/LC over India.

  7. A case study of subdaily simulated and observed continental convective precipitation: CMIP5 and multiscale global climate models comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosa, D.; Collins, W. D.

    2013-11-01

    We analyze subdaily continental convective precipitation data relative to the Southeastern U.S. from gridded rain gauge measurements, conventional global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, and a multiscale GCM. GCMs react too quickly to local convective instability and, therefore, overestimate the incidence of middle rainfall events and underestimate the incidence of no, little, and heavy rainfall events. Moreover, GCMs overestimate the persistence of heavy precipitation and underestimate the persistence of no and light precipitation. In general, GCMs with suppression mechanisms in the treatments of convective precipitation compare best with rain gauge derived data and should be trusted more than the others when assessing the risk from extreme precipitation events. The multiscale GCM has the best estimate of the diurnal cycle and a good estimate of heavy rainfall persistence.

  8. Comparison of the hydrological impact driven by RCM-, GCM- and NCEP- simulated and bias corrected precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Yukun; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chongyu; Hu, Kang

    2016-04-01

    Statistical downscaling methods are a common tool to compensate for the gaps between large-scale climate model simulations and station-scale observations. This study evaluates the performance of the raw precipitation from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), outputs of Global Climate Model (GCM)-NorESM and corresponding Regional Climate Model (RCM)-the East Asian regional climate model driven by WRF model driven with NorESM. Meanwhile, their bias-corrected series by four different bias correction methods are simultaneously evaluated in order to find whether NCEP with observation coupled or RCM with modified spatial distribution of surface climate can have a better performance than GCM on analyzing hydrological impact. The Xin'anjiang lumped hydrological model is used to assess the hydrological impacts by simulating the streamflows in Xiangjiang basin with the corresponding observed, model-simulated and bias-corrected precipitation as input. The results show that hydrological simulations using the RCM and NCEP historical precipitation do not have a better agreement with observed runoff than using raw GCM data as input in this case study. However, when the raw precipitation of climate models is bias-corrected, an obvious improvement is obtained from all the climate models, and the bias-corrected RCM precipitation gives the best fitness in the runoff simulations. Comparing different bias correction methods with the same climate model, the method with occurrence and intensity adjustment outperforms other methods in the runoff simulation. It can be inferred that without bias correction, it can be hardly concluded that NCEP or RCM brings an improvement of precipitation simulation from GCM for driving hydrological models. However, the RCM precipitation corrected by a proper bias correction method provides better runoff simulation results over other climate datasets.

  9. Evaluation of CMIP5 continental precipitation simulations relative to satellite-based gauge-adjusted observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, quantifying model pattern discrepancies, and biases for both entire distributions and their upper tails. The results of the volumetric hit index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas but that their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain subcontinental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, and central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multimodel ensemble mean and median also are superior to that of the individual CMIP5 models. However, at high quantiles of reference data (75th and 90th percentiles), all climate models display low skill in simulating precipitation, except over North America, the Amazon, and Central Africa. Analyses of total bias (B) in CMIP5 simulations reveal that most models overestimate precipitation over regions of complex topography (e.g., western North and South America and southern Africa and Asia), while underestimating it over arid regions. Also, while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, intermodel variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. The quantile bias analyses indicate that CMIP5 simulations are even more biased at high quantiles of precipitation. It is found that a simple mean field bias removal improves the overall B and VHI values but does not make a significant improvement at high quantiles of precipitation.

  10. Information content of downscaled GCM precipitation variables for crop simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Mishra, A. K.

    2015-12-01

    A simple statistical downscaling procedure for transforming daily global climate model (GCM) rainfall was applied at the local scale in Katumani, Kenya. We corrected the rainfall frequency bias of the GCM by truncating its daily rainfall cumulative distribution into the station's distribution using a wet-day threshold. Then, we corrected the GCM's rainfall intensity bias by mapping its truncated rainfall distribution into the station's truncated distribution. Additional tailoring was made to the bias corrected GCM rainfall by linking it with a stochastic disaggregation scheme based on a conditional stochastic weather generator to correct the temporal structure inherent with daily GCM rainfall. Results of the simple and hybridized GCM downscaled precipitation variables (total, probability of occurrence, intensity and dry spell length) were linked with a crop model. An objective evaluation of the tailored GCM data was done using entropy. This study is useful for the identification of the most suitable downscaling technique, as well as the most effective precipitation variables for forecasting crop yields.

  11. Approaches and Recommendations for Simulating Extreme Precipitation Years in Multi-site Experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knapp, A.; Collins, S. L.; Dukes, J.; Loik, M. E.; Phillips, R.; Sala, O. E.; Smith, M.

    2015-12-01

    Worldwide, human activities are exposing all ecosystems to increases in atmospheric CO2, N and temperature. Precipitation also is being altered globally, but increases in precipitation variability and extremes are expected to have greater impacts on ecosystem function than changes in means. Determining how and why ecosystems differ in their sensitivity to precipitation extremes (i.e., drought) is key to forecasting future ecosystem structure and function at the global scale. Coordinated multi-site experiments can be invaluable for assessing differential sensitivity of ecosystems (deserts, grasslands, forests, etc.) to precipitation extremes. However, determining treatment levels in these experiments presents unique problems because extremes in precipitation are defined statistically, based on historical context, and thus can differ dramatically among sites. Therefore, while multi-site experiments with fixed treatment levels may be appropriate for assessing ecosystem sensitivity to CO2 or warming, they may provide less mechanistic insight for studying extremes. We propose that for multi-site experiments focused on variability and extremes, the amount of precipitation removed or added to impose precipitation extremes should be site-specific (not fixed across sites) and matched to the historical climate record. Further, because extreme wet and dry years differ from each other in other attributes (event size, number of events, consecutive dry days, etc.) treatments should incorporate realistic alterations in these precipitation attributes as well. We show that for most ecosystem types globally, experimental infrastructure that passively reduces each rainfall event can realistically simulate drought, with the addition of a few large precipitation events realistically simulating extreme wet years. Thus, while treatment levels required to impose extreme precipitation years should vary among ecosystems, alterations in precipitation attributes can be imposed uniformly.

  12. A case study of proton precipitation at Mars: Mars Express observations and hybrid simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diéval, C.; Kallio, E.; Barabash, S.; Stenberg, G.; Nilsson, H.; Futaana, Y.; Holmström, M.; Fedorov, A.; Frahm, R. A.; Jarvinen, R.; Brain, D. A.

    2012-06-01

    Using the data from the Analyzer of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-3) experiment on board Mars Express and hybrid simulations, we have investigated the entry of protons into the Martian induced magnetosphere. We discuss one orbit on the dayside with observations of significant proton fluxes at altitudes down to 260 km on 27 February 2004. The protons observed below the induced magnetosphere boundary at an altitude of less than 700 km have energies of a few keV, travel downward, and precipitate onto the atmosphere. The measured energy flux and particle flux are 108-109 eV cm-2 s-1 and 105-106 H+ cm-2 s-1, respectively. The proton precipitation occurs because the Martian magnetosheath is small with respect to the heated proton gyroradius in the subsolar region. The data suggest that the precipitation is not permanent but may occur when there are transient increases in the magnetosheath proton temperature. The higher-energy protons penetrate deeper because of their larger gyroradii. The proton entry into the induced magnetosphere is simulated using a hybrid code. A simulation using a fast solar wind as input can reproduce the high energies of the observed precipitating protons. The model shows that the precipitating protons originate from both the solar wind and the planetary exosphere. The precipitation extends over a few thousand kilometers along the orbit of the spacecraft. The proton precipitation does not necessarily correlate with the crustal magnetic anomalies.

  13. Process modelings and simulations of heavy castings and forgings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dianzhong; Sun, Mingyue; Wang, Pei; Kang, Xiuhong; Fu, Paixian; Li, Yiyi

    2013-05-01

    The Materials Process Modeling Division, IMR, CAS has been promoting for more than 10 years research activities on modeling and experimental studies on heavy castings and forgings. In this report, we highlight some selected achievements and impacts in this area: To satisfy domestic strategic requirements, such as nuclear and hydraulic power, marine projects and high speed rail, we have developed a number of casting and forging technologies, which combine advanced computing simulations, X-ray real time observation techniques and industrial-scaled trial experiments. These technologies have been successfully applied in various industrial areas and yielded a series of scientific and technological breakthroughs and innovation. Important examples of this strategic research include the hot-processing technologies of the Three Gorge water turbine runner, marine crankshaft manufacturers, backup rolls for hot rolling mills and the production of hundreds-ton steel ingot.

  14. The impacts of precipitating cloud radiative effects on ocean surface evaporation, precipitation, and ocean salinity in coupled GCM simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, J.-L. F.; Wang, Yi-Hui; Lee, Tong; Waliser, Duane; Lee, Wei-Liang; Yu, Jia-Yuh; Chen, Yi-Chun; Fetzer, Eric; Hasson, Audrey

    2016-08-01

    The coupled global climate model (GCM) fidelity in representing upper ocean salinity including near sea surface bulk salinity (SSS) is evaluated in this study, with a focus on the Pacific Ocean. The systematic biases in ocean surface evaporation (E) minus precipitation (P) and SSS are found to be fairly similar in the twentieth century simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) relative to the observations. One of the potential causes of the CMIP model biases is the missing representation of the radiative effects of precipitating hydrometeors (i.e., snow) in most CMIP models. To examine the radiative effect of cloud snow on SSS, sensitivity experiments with and without such effect are conducted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). This study investigates the difference in SSS between sensitivity experiments and its relationship with atmospheric circulation, E - P and air-sea heat fluxes. It is found that the exclusion of the cloud snow radiative effect in CESM produces weaker Pacific trade winds, resulting in enhanced precipitation, reduced evaporation, and a reduction of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical and subtropical Pacific. The latter results in an improved comparison with climatological upper ocean bulk salinity. The introduction of cloud snow also altered the budget terms that maintain the time-mean salinity in the mixed layer.

  15. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

  16. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-05-01

    In recent years, because the frequency and severity of floods have increased across Canada, it is important to understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation. Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stations of Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution and generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariates that represent large-scale climate patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parameters of GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show that GEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastal regions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poisson regressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitation events in Canada are related to large-scale climate patterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationary GEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GP distributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitation of Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt and slowly varying changes) likely because of the influence of large-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastal regions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, while AMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in El Niño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO on heavy precipitation was spatially consistent but stronger than on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extreme precipitation is also statistically significant at some stations across Canada.

  17. Heavy Oil Process Monitor: Automated On-Column Asphaltene Precipitation and Re-Dissolution

    SciTech Connect

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani; Mark Sanderson

    2007-03-31

    An automated separation technique was developed that provides a new approach to measuring the distribution profiles of the most polar, or asphaltenic components of an oil, using a continuous flow system to precipitate and re-dissolve asphaltenes from the oil. Methods of analysis based on this new technique were explored. One method based on the new technique involves precipitation of a portion of residua sample in heptane on a polytetrafluoroethylene-packed (PTFE) column. The precipitated material is re-dissolved in three steps using solvents of increasing polarity: cyclohexane, toluene, and methylene chloride. The amount of asphaltenes that dissolve in cyclohexane is a useful diagnostic of the thermal history of oil, and its proximity to coke formation. For example, about 40 % (w/w) of the heptane asphaltenes from unpyrolyzed residua dissolves in cyclohexane. As pyrolysis progresses, this number decrease to below 15% as coke and toluene insoluble pre-coke materials appear. Currently, the procedure for the isolation of heptane asphaltenes and the determination of the amount of asphaltenes soluble in cyclohexane spans three days. The automated procedure takes one hour. Another method uses a single solvent, methylene chloride, to re-dissolve the material that precipitates on heptane on the PTFE-packed column. The area of this second peak can be used to calculate a value which correlates with gravimetric asphaltene content. Currently the gravimetric procedure to determine asphaltenes takes about 24 hours. The automated procedure takes 30 minutes. Results for four series of original and pyrolyzed residua were compared with data from the gravimetric methods. Methods based on the new on-column precipitation and re-dissolution technique provide significantly more detail about the polar constituent's oils than the gravimetric determination of asphaltenes.

  18. WRF-Cordex simulations for Europe: mean and extreme precipitation for present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, Rita M.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Miranda, Pedro M. A.

    2013-04-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model, version 3.3.1, was used to perform the European domain Cordex simulations, at 50km resolution. A first simulation, forced by ERA-Interim (1989-2009), was carried out to evaluate the models performance to represent the mean and extreme precipitation in present European climate. This evaluation is based in the comparison of WRF results against the ECAD regular gridded dataset of daily precipitation. Results are comparable to recent studies with other models for the European region, at this resolution. For the same domain a control and a future scenario (RCP8.5) simulation was performed to assess the climate change impact on the mean and extreme precipitation. These regional simulations were forced by EC-EARTH model results, and, encompass the periods from 1960-2006 and 2006-2100, respectively.

  19. Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

  20. Evaluating the Influence of Ice Microphysics on an Idealized Simulation of Orographic Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morales, A.; Posselt, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    This study aims to understand the impacts on surface precipitation and mesoscale flow structures associated with ice and mixed-phase microphysical processes. Experiments are conducted in the NCAR Cloud Model 1 (CM1) using an idealized moist stable flow interacting with a Gaussian bell-shaped mountain. The control simulation uses a liquid-only (Kessler) scheme, while ice microphysics experiments are performed using two parameterizations available in CM1 (NASA-Goddard version of the Lin, Farley, Orville (LFO) scheme and the Morrison (MOR) scheme), which both contain three ice species: cloud ice, snow, and graupel/hail. LFO simulations produce flow structures that are comparable to the control run, but generate less precipitation. MOR simulations produce a completely different flow structure, exhibiting laminar flow downstream of the mountain while the LFO and control simulation produce a breaking wave and downslope windstorm. This results in a "double-peaked" precipitation distribution in MOR, with warm-rain processes seemingly dominating the first peak and melting of ice species contributing to the secondary peak. A change in the rimed ice species results in systematic differences in amount and location of precipitation received on the mountain slope. Overall, the choice of microphysics parameterization has a larger impact on the dynamical features and surface precipitation rates than the choice of rimed ice species (graupel vs. hail). These results were similarly found in simulations with different initial conditions. This presentation will focus on the microphysical processes leading to the substantial differences between the LFO and MOR experiments.

  1. Impact of Urbanization on Heavy Convective Precipitation under Strong Large-Scale Forcing: A Case Study over the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Long; Smith, James; Baeck, Mary Lynn; Bou-Zeid, Elie; Jessup, Stephen; Tian, Fuqiang; Hu, Heping

    2013-04-01

    In this study, observational and numerical modeling studies based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are used to investigate the impact of urbanization on heavy rainfall over the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan region. We examine urban modification of rainfall for a storm system with continental-scale moisture transport, strong large-scale forcing, and extreme rainfall over a large area of the upper Midwest of the US. WRF simulations were carried out to examine the sensitivity of the rainfall distribution in and around the urban area to different urban land surface model representations and urban land-use scenarios. Simulation results suggest that the urbanization plays an important role in precipitation distribution, even in settings characterized by strong large-scale forcing. For the Milwaukee-Lake Michigan region, the thermodynamic perturbations produced by urbanization on temperature and surface pressure fields enhance the intrusion of the Lake Breeze and facilitate the formation of a convergence zone, which create favorable conditions for deep convection over the city. Analyses of model and observed vertical profiles of reflectivity using contoured frequency by altitude displays (CFADs), suggest that cloud dynamics over the city do not change significantly with urbanization. Simulation results also suggest that the large scale rainfall pattern is not sensitive to different urban representations in the model. Both urban representations (Noah land surface model with urban land categories and the Urban Canopy Model) adequately capture the dominant features of this storm over the urban region.

  2. North west cape-induced electron precipitation and theoretical simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Zhen-xia; Li, Xin-qiao; Wang, Chen-Yu; Chen, Lun-Jin

    2016-11-01

    Enhancement of the electron fluxes in the inner radiation belt, which is induced by the powerful North West Cape (NWC) very-low-frequency (VLF) transmitter, have been observed and analyzed by several research groups. However, all of the previous publications have focused on NWC-induced > 100-keV electrons only, based on observations from the Detection of Electro-Magnetic Emissions Transmitted from Earthquake Regions (DEMETER) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) satellites. Here, we present flux enhancements with 30-100-keV electrons related to NWC transmitter for the first time, which were observed by the GOES satellite at night. Similar to the 100-300-keV precipitated-electron behavior, the low energy 30-100-keV electron precipitation is primarily located east of the transmitter. However, the latter does not drift eastward to the same extent as the former, possibly because of the lower electron velocity. The 30-100-keV electrons are distributed in the L = 1.8-2.1 L-shell range, in contrast to the 100-300-keV electrons which are at L = 1.67-1.9. This is consistent with the perspective that the energy of the VLF-wave-induced electron flux enhancement decreases with higher L-shell values. We expand upon the rationality of the simultaneous enhancement of the 30-100- and 100-300-keV electron fluxes through comparison with the cyclotron resonance theory for the quasi-linear wave-particle interaction. In addition, we interpret the asymmetry characteristics of NWC electric power distribution in north and south hemisphere by ray tracing model. Finally, we present considerable discussion and show that good agreement exists between the observation of satellites and theory. Supported by the China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite Mission Ground-Based Verification Project of the Administration of Science, Technology, and Industry for National Defense and Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization Project (APSCO-SP/PM-EARTHQUAKE).

  3. Understanding the resolution dependence of precipitation statistical fidelity in hindcast simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Brien, T. A.; Collins, W. D.; Rauscher, S.; Kashinath, K.; Rübel, O.; Byna, S.; Gu, J.; Krishnan, H.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that atmospheric models with high horizontal resolution better represent the physics and statistics of precipitation in climate models. While it is abundantly clear from these studies that high-resolution increases the rate of extreme precipitation, it is not clear whether these added extreme events are "realistic"; whether they occur in simulations in response to the same forcings that drive similar events in reality. In order to understand whether increasing horizontal resolution results in improved model fidelity, a hindcast-based, multiresolution experimental design has been conceived and implemented: the InitiaLIzed-ensemble, Analyze, and Develop (ILIAD) framework. The ILIAD framework allows direct comparison between observed and simulated weather events across multiple resolutions and assessment of the degree to which increased resolution improves the fidelity of extremes. Analysis of 5 years of daily 5 day hindcasts with the Community Earth System Model at horizontal resolutions of 220, 110, and 28 km shows that: (1) these hindcasts reproduce the resolution-dependent increase of extreme precipitation that has been identified in longer-duration simulations, (2) the correspondence between simulated and observed extreme precipitation improves as resolution increases; and (3) this increase in extremes and precipitation fidelity comes entirely from resolved-scale precipitation. Evidence is presented that this resolution-dependent increase in precipitation intensity can be explained by the theory of Rauscher et al. (2016), which states that precipitation intensifies at high resolution due to an interaction between the emergent scaling (spectral) properties of the wind field and the constraint of fluid continuity.

  4. High resolution WRF simulation of the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norris, J.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.; Cannon, F.; Bookhagen, B.

    2015-12-01

    The Himalaya enhances and redistributes large-scale precipitation systems associated with winter storms, the Indian monsoon, and other relevant weather systems through the year. The resulting runoff across the Himalaya is depended on by over a billion people in south Asia for energy, agriculture, industry, and human consumption. However, the observation and understanding of regional precipitation patterns are limited on account of sparse in-situ meteorological data and complex topography. Additionally, the region's extreme elevations pose significant challenges for remotely sensed observation and global reanalyses in accurately representing precipitation. Mesoscale simulations are therefore the best available option to determine precipitation patterns and evaluate water resources in the Himalaya. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over High Asia for a single, continuous hydrological year at high resolution (6.7 km). The output is compared to available high-elevation rain gauges along the Himalaya, as well as gridded precipitation estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and satellite cloud-mask data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), to gauge the performance of the model in simulating the full annual range of precipitation systems over the Himalaya. WRF and TRMM show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation that appropriately represents climatic influences ranging from extratropical cyclones to the monsoon. Good agreement is also observed in the locations of precipitation maxima in transition months between the two regimes. WRF also compares well to daily in-situ precipitation throughout the year, with correlation coefficients generally at 0.5 and above, but decreasing for stations at increasingly high elevations. Diurnal cycles of precipitation during the monsoon are also similar between WRF and TRMM, with

  5. Colloidal precipitates related to Acid Mine Drainage: bacterial diversity and micro fungi-heavy metal interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lucchetti, G.; Carbone, C.; Consani, S.; Zotti, M.; Di Piazza, S.; Pozzolini, M.; Giovine, M.

    2015-12-01

    In Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) settings colloidal precipitates control the mobility of Potential Toxic Elements (PTEs). Mineral-contaminant relationships (i.e. adsorption, ion-exchange, desorption) are rarely pure abiotic processes. Microbes, mainly bacteria and microfungi, can catalyze several reactions modifying the element speciation, as well as the bioavailability of inorganic pollutants. Soil, sediments, and waters heavily polluted with PTEs through AMD processes are a potential reservoir of extremophile bacteria and fungi exploitable for biotechnological purposes. Two different AMD related colloids, an ochraceous precipitate (deposited in weakly acidic conditions, composed by nanocrystalline goethite) and a greenish-blue precipitate (deposited at near-neutral pH, composed by allophane + woodwardite) were sampled. The aims of this work were to a) characterize the mycobiota present in these colloidal minerals by evaluating the presence of alive fungal propagules and extracting bacteria DNA; b) verify the fungal strains tolerance, and bioaccumulation capability on greenish-blue and ZnSO4 enriched media; c) evaluate potential impact of bacteria in the system geochemistry. The preliminary results show an interesting and selected mycobiota able to survive under unfavourable environmental conditions. A significant number of fungal strains were isolated in pure culture. Among them, species belonging to Penicillium and Trichoderma genera were tested on both greenish-blue and ZnSO4 enriched media. The results show a significant tolerance and bioaccumulation capability to some PTEs. The same colloidal precipitates were processed to extract bacteria DNA by using a specific procedure developed for sediments. The results give a good yield of nucleic acids and a positive PCR amplification of 16S rDNA accomplished the first step for future metagenomic analyses.

  6. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution <2°) can more accurately simulate precipitation, most likely due to their ability to capture precipitation induced by topography. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The

  7. On the use of Cox regression to examine the temporal clustering of flooding and heavy precipitation across the central United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele; Jones, Michael P.; Smith, James A.

    2017-08-01

    The central United States is plagued by frequent catastrophic flooding, such as the flood events of 1993, 2008, 2011, 2013, 2014 and 2016. The goal of this study is to examine whether it is possible to describe the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale in terms of variations in the climate system. Daily streamflow and precipitation time series over the central United States (defined here to include North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan) are used in this study. We model the occurrence/non-occurrence of a flood and heavy precipitation event over time using regression models based on Cox processes, which can be viewed as a generalization of Poisson processes. Rather than assuming that an event (i.e., flooding or precipitation) occurs independently of the occurrence of the previous one (as in Poisson processes), Cox processes allow us to account for the potential presence of temporal clustering, which manifests itself in an alternation of quiet and active periods. Here we model the occurrence/non-occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events using two climate indices as time-varying covariates: the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific-North American pattern (PNA). We find that AO and/or PNA are important predictors in explaining the temporal clustering in flood occurrences in over 78% of the stream gages we considered. Similar results are obtained when working with heavy precipitation events. Analyses of the sensitivity of the results to different thresholds used to identify events lead to the same conclusions. The findings of this work highlight that variations in the climate system play a critical role in explaining the occurrence of flood and heavy precipitation events at the sub-seasonal scale over the central United States.

  8. Sensitivity of simulated extreme precipitation and temperature to convective parameterization using RegCM3 in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hui, Pinhong; Tang, Jianping; Wang, Shuyu; Wu, Jian

    2015-10-01

    In this study, the regional climate model of RegCM3 is applied to investigate the sensitivity of regional climate over China using four cumulus parameterizations, the modified Anthes-Kuo (AK), the Grell with Arakawa-Schubert closure, the Grell with Fritsch-Chappell closure, and the MIT-Emanuel (EM). The model was integrated over the period of 1982 to 2001 using the NCEP Reanalysis data NNRP2 as boundary conditions. RegCM3 coupled with various cumulus parameterizations is evaluated firstly as for its ability to represent regional climatology and climate extreme indices, and the results show that simulated regional climate in China is sensitive to the option of cumulus parameterizations. All the cumulus schemes produce a northward expansion of heavy rain area and an underestimation of surface air temperature. For precipitation, the AK scheme simulates relatively better magnitude, while the EM scheme has more reliable performance on the spatial distribution. RegCM3 can represent the spatial distributions of extreme indices for both precipitation and temperature, as well as their decadal trends irrelevant to the cumulus parameterizations. However, the model underestimates the consecutive dry days and overestimates the three extreme wet indices, with the EM scheme giving the worst result. Slight underestimations of extreme temperature indices are detected in all cumulus parameterization scheme runs. The shapes of probability distribution functions for extreme indices are correctly produced, though the probabilities of extreme dry and warm events are underestimated.

  9. Simulation of Soil Water Content Variability in a Heavy Clay Soil under Contrasting Soil Managements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedrera, A.; Vanderlinden, K.; Martínez, G.; Espejo, A. J.; Giráldez, J. V.

    2012-04-01

    Soil water content (SWC) is a key variable for numerous physical, chemical and biological processes that take place at or near the soil surface. Understanding the spatial and temporal variability of SWC at the field scale is of prime importance for implementing efficient measurement strategies in applications. The aim of this study was to characterize the spatial and temporal variation of gravimetric SWC in a heavy clay soil, in a wheat-sunflower-legume rotation under conventional (CT) and no-till (NT) using a simple water balance model. An experimental field in SW Spain, where conventional (CT) and no-till (NT) management of a heavy clay soil are being compared since 1983, was sampled for gravimetric SWC on 38 occasions during 2008 and 2009. Topsoil clay content across the six plots was on average 55%, with a standard deviation of 2.7%. The soil profile was sampled at 54 locations, evenly distributed over the three CT and NT plots, at depths of 0-10, 25-35, and 55-65 cm. Topsoil water retention curves (SWRC) were determined in the laboratory on undisturbed soil samples from each of the 54 locations. A weather station recorded daily precipitation and evapotranspiration, as calculated by the Penman-Monteith FAO equation. The water balance was calculated using the Thornthwaite-Mather model with a daily time step. Three parameters, water holding capacity, and water evaporation corrector coefficients for each of the two years, were inversely estimated at the 54 SWC observation points and probability density functions were identified. Spatial variability of SWC was estimated using a Monte Carlo approach, and simulated and observed variability were compared. This Monte Carlo scheme, using a simple water balance model with only three parameters, was found to be useful for evaluating the influence of soil management on the variability of SWC in heavy clay soils.

  10. Modeling extreme precipitation events—a climate change simulation for Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Semmler, Tido; Jacob, Daniela

    2004-12-01

    The regional climate model REMO 5.1 has been applied to the European region to investigate the impact of future climate changes on the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. For today's climate, not only the climatological mean precipitation, but also the 10- and 20-year return levels of daily precipitation are captured fairly well by the use of the following model configuration: REMO 5.1 at 0.5° resolution is driven by an atmospheric global climate model HadAM3H control simulation at the lateral boundaries. Sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice distribution (SID) are prescribed from the observed data set HadISST1. In mountainous regions, the differences between simulated and observed return levels are larger than in flat regions. Here, a higher horizontal resolution could probably further improve the results. The regional scenario simulation has been carried out with REMO 5.1 driven by a HadAM3H scenario simulation. This simulation is consistent with the SRES-A2 emission scenario and uses changes in sea surface temperature and sea ice distribution simulated by the coupled global climate model HadCM3. Large increases of the precipitation return levels for the 10- and 20-year return periods are simulated in 2070-2100 compared to 1960-1990. Nearly all regions are affected by higher return levels, even if the mean precipitation decreases in some regions. In most regions, the return levels are increasing up to 50%. In the Baltic Sea region, there are increases by more than 100%, which, however, can be partly related to a very strong increase in the sea surface temperature in the coupled global climate model simulation. This increase is stronger compared to other global climate model simulations and very pronounced in the Baltic Sea.

  11. Relations between winter precipitation and atmospheric circulation simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory general circulation model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

    1995-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of atmospheric circulation are more reliable than GCM simulations of temperature and precipitation. In this study, temporal correlations between 700 hPa height anomalies simulated winter precipitation at eight locations in the conterminous United States are compared with corresponding correlations in observations. The objectives are to 1) characterize the relations between atmospheric circulation and winter precipitation simulated by the GFDL, GCM for selected locations in the conterminous USA, ii) determine whether these relations are similar to those found in observations of the actual climate system, and iii) determine if GFDL-simulated precipitation is forced by the same circulation patterns as in the real atmosphere. -from Authors

  12. A comparison of simulated precipitation by hybrid isentropic-sigma and sigma models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Donald R.; Zapotocny, Tom H.; Reames, Fred M.; Wolf, Bart J.; Pierce, R. B.

    1993-01-01

    Simulations of dry and moist baroclinic development from 10- and 22-layer hybrid isentropic-sigma coordinate models are compared with those from 11-, 27-, and 35-layer sigma coordinate models. The ability of the models to transport water vapor and simulate equivalent potential temperature is examined. Predictions of the timing, location, and amount of precipitation are compared. Several analytical distributions of water vapor are specified initially. It is shown that when the relative humidity is vertically uniform through a substantial extent of the atmosphere, all the models produce very similar precipitation distributions. However, when water vapor is confined to relatively shallow layers, the ability of the sigma coordinate models to simulate the timing, location, and amount of precipitation is severely compromised.

  13. Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Jingfeng; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Zhang, Chidong; Jeong, Myeong Jae; Gautam, Ritesh; Bettenhausen, Corey; Sayer, Andrew M.; Hansell, Richard A.; Liu, Xiaohong; hide

    2012-01-01

    One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

  14. Understanding the sources of Caribbean precipitation biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Jung-Hee; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2014-06-01

    We assess the ability of Global Climate Models participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) to simulate observed annual precipitation cycles over the Caribbean. Compared to weather station records and gridded observations, we find that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models can be grouped into three categories: (1) models that correctly simulate a bimodal distribution with two rainfall maxima in May-June and September-October, punctuated by a mid-summer drought (MSD) in July-August; (2) models that reproduce the MSD and the second precipitation maxima only; and (3) models that simulate only one precipitation maxima, beginning in early summer. These categories appear related to model simulation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, models in category 2 tend to anticipate the westward expansion of the NASH into the Caribbean in early summer. Early onset of NASH results in strong moisture divergence and MSD-like conditions at the time of the May-June observed precipitation maxima. Models in category 3 tend to have cooler SST across the region, particularly over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as a weaker Caribbean low-level jet accompanying a weaker NASH. In these models, observed June-like patterns of moisture convergence in the central Caribbean and the Central America and divergence in the east Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico persist through September. This analysis suggests systematic biases in model structure may be responsible for biases in observed precipitation variability over the Caribbean and more confidence may be placed in the precipitation simulated by the GCMs that are able to correctly simulate seasonal cycles of SST and NASH.

  15. Understanding the sources of Caribbean precipitation biases in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, Jung-Hee; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2013-05-01

    We assess the ability of Global Climate Models participating in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) to simulate observed annual precipitation cycles over the Caribbean. Compared to weather station records and gridded observations, we find that both CMIP3 and CMIP5 models can be grouped into three categories: (1) models that correctly simulate a bimodal distribution with two rainfall maxima in May-June and September-October, punctuated by a mid-summer drought (MSD) in July-August; (2) models that reproduce the MSD and the second precipitation maxima only; and (3) models that simulate only one precipitation maxima, beginning in early summer. These categories appear related to model simulation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) and sea surface temperature (SST) in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, models in category 2 tend to anticipate the westward expansion of the NASH into the Caribbean in early summer. Early onset of NASH results in strong moisture divergence and MSD-like conditions at the time of the May-June observed precipitation maxima. Models in category 3 tend to have cooler SST across the region, particularly over the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as a weaker Caribbean low-level jet accompanying a weaker NASH. In these models, observed June-like patterns of moisture convergence in the central Caribbean and the Central America and divergence in the east Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico persist through September. This analysis suggests systematic biases in model structure may be responsible for biases in observed precipitation variability over the Caribbean and more confidence may be placed in the precipitation simulated by the GCMs that are able to correctly simulate seasonal cycles of SST and NASH.

  16. Precipitation of heavy metals from acid mine drainage and their geochemical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrilakova, Aneta; Balintova, Magdalena; Holub, Marian

    2014-06-01

    Geochemical modeling plays an increasingly vital role in a number of areas of geoscience, ranging from groundwater and surface water hydrology to environmental preservation and remediation. Geochemical modeling is also used to model the interaction processes at the water - sediment interface in acid mine drainage (AMD). AMD contains high concentrations of sulfate and dissolved metals and it is a serious environmental problem in eastern Slovakia. The paper is focused on comparing the results of laboratory precipitation of metal ions from AMD (the Smolnik creek, Slovakia) with the results obtained by geochemical modeling software Visual Minteq 3.0.

  17. Differing Response of Extreme Precipitation to Changing Boundary Conditions in Simulations with Parametrized and Explicit Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meredith, Edmund; Maraun, Douglas; Semenov, Vladimir; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies have shown that the representation of extreme precipitation in climate models is much more sensitive to model resolution than that of mean precipitation. With global and regional circulation models simulating both present and future climates at ever-increasing resolution, it is only a matter of time before convection resolving climate projections become the norm. In the meantime, regional climate models provide an efficient and inexpensive tool to assess what, if any, impact explicitly resolved convection may have on the representation of precipitation extremes in warmer climates with enhanced boundary forcings. To compare the response of precipitation extremes in models with parametrized and explicitly resolved convection to changing boundary forcings, we select the July 2012 precipitation extreme near the Black Sea town of Krymsk as a recent showcase example. The event was related to a slow moving low pressure system crossing the eastern Black Sea, advecting warm and moist air towards the coast. Two waves of convection resulted in precipitation totals that dwarfed all previous events in the instrumental record, dating back to the 1930s, and over 170 deaths. We carry out ensemble sensitivity experiments with a triply nested configuration of the WRF regional model, for a domain covering the eastern Black Sea. The event is simulated at 15 km, 3 km and 600 m resolution. The model's ability to reproduce the event with observed forcings is first verified, before a series of additional ensembles with altered boundary forcings, in our case sea surface temperature (SST), is created. These ensembles consist of subtracting (adding) the 1982 - 2012 trend in Black Sea SST from (to) the observed 2012 SST field in 20% increments, giving a total of 11 ensembles whose SST differ from the observed field by between -100% and +100% of the warming trend. Aggregating all data to the 15 km grid, we compare the responses of hourly precipitation maxima to incrementally

  18. Effect of additives on Hg2+ reduction and precipitation inhibited by sodium dithiocarbamate in simulated flue gas desulfurization solutions.

    PubMed

    Lu, Rongjie; Hou, Jiaai; Xu, Jiang; Tang, Tingmei; Xu, Xinhua

    2011-11-30

    Mercury (II) (Hg(2+)) ion can be reduced by aqueous S(IV) (sulfite and/or bisulfite) species, which leads to elemental mercury (Hg(0)) emissions in wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) systems. Numerous reports have demonstrated the high trapping efficiency of sodium dithiocarbamate over heavy metals. In this paper, a novel sodium dithiocarbamate, DTCR, was utilized as a precipitator to control Hg(2+) reduction and Hg(0) emission against S(IV) in FGD solutions. Results indicated that Hg(2+) reduction efficiency decreased dramatically while precipitation rate peaked at around 91.0% in consistence with the increment of DTCR dosage. Initial pH and temperature had great inhibitory effects on Hg(2+) reduction: the Hg(2+) removal rate gradually increased and reached a plateau along with the increment of temperature and initial pH value. Chloride played a key role in Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions. When Cl(-) concentration increased from 0 to 150 mM, Hg(2+) removal rate dropped from 93.84% to 86.05%, and the Hg(2+) reduction rate remained at a low level (<7.8%). SO(4)(2-), NO(3)(-) and other common metal ions would affect the efficiency of Hg(2+) reduction and precipitation reactions in the simulated desulfurization solutions: Hg(2+) removal rate could always be above 90%, while Hg(2+) reduction rate was maintained at below 10%. The predominance of DTCR over aqueous S(IV), indicated by the results above, has wide industrial applications in FGD systems.

  19. Phase-field simulations of coherent precipitate morphologies and coarsening kinetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaithyanathan, Venugopalan

    2002-09-01

    The primary aim of this research is to enhance the fundamental understanding of coherent precipitation reactions in advanced metallic alloys. The emphasis is on a particular class of precipitation reactions which result in ordered intermetallic precipitates embedded in a disordered matrix. These precipitation reactions underlie the development of high-temperature Ni-base superalloys and ultra-light aluminum alloys. Phase-field approach, which has emerged as the method of choice for modeling microstructure evolution, is employed for this research with the focus on factors that control the precipitate morphologies and coarsening kinetics, such as precipitate volume fractions and lattice mismatch between precipitates and matrix. Two types of alloy systems are considered. The first involves L1 2 ordered precipitates in a disordered cubic matrix, in an attempt to model the gamma' precipitates in Ni-base superalloys and delta' precipitates in Al-Li alloys. The effect of volume fraction on coarsening kinetics of gamma' precipitates was investigated using two-dimensional (2D) computer simulations. With increase in volume fraction, larger fractions of precipitates were found to have smaller aspect ratios in the late stages of coarsening, and the precipitate size distributions became wider and more positively skewed. The most interesting result was associated with the effect of volume fraction on the coarsening rate constant. Coarsening rate constant as a function of volume fraction extracted from the cubic growth law of average half-edge length was found to exhibit three distinct regimes: anomalous behavior or decreasing rate constant with volume fraction at small volume fractions ( ≲ 20%), volume fraction independent or constant behavior for intermediate volume fractions (˜20--50%), and the normal behavior or increasing rate constant with volume fraction for large volume fractions ( ≳ 50%). The second alloy system considered was Al-Cu with the focus on understanding

  20. Lagged effects of the Mistral wind on heavy precipitation through ocean-atmosphere coupling in the region of Valencia (Spain)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berthou, Ségolène; Mailler, Sylvain; Drobinski, Philippe; Arsouze, Thomas; Bastin, Sophie; Béranger, Karine; Lebeaupin Brossier, Cindy

    2016-05-01

    The region of Valencia in Spain has historically been affected by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). These HPEs are known to be modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Balearic Sea. Using an atmosphere-ocean regional climate model, we show that more than 70 % of the HPEs in the region of Valencia present a SST cooling larger than the monthly trend in the Northwestern Mediterranean before the HPEs. This is linked to the breaking of a Rossby wave preceding the HPEs: a ridge-trough pattern at mid-levels centered over western France associated with a low-level depression in the Gulf of Genoa precedes the generation of a cut-off low over southern Spain with a surface depression over the Alboran Sea in the lee of the Atlas. This latter situation is favourable to the advection of warm and moist air towards the Mediterranean Spanish coast, possibly leading to HPEs. The depression in the Gulf of Genoa generates intense northerly (Mistral) to northwesterly (Tramontane/Cierzo) winds. In most cases, these intense winds trigger entrainment at the bottom of the oceanic mixed layer which is a mechanism explaining part of the SST cooling in most cases. Our study suggests that the SST cooling due to this strong wind regime then persists until the HPEs and reduces the precipitation intensity.

  1. Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitoh, Akio; Hosaka, Masahiro; Adachi, Yukimasa; Kamiguchi, Kenji

    2005-07-01

    Projected changes in precipitation characteristics around the mid-21st century and end-of-the-century are analyzed using the daily precipitation output of the 3-member ensemble Meteorological Research Institute global ocean-atmosphere coupled general circulation model (MRI-CGCM2) simulations under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios. It is found that both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while both the frequency and intensity decrease in about 20% of the globe. These numbers differ only a few percent from decade to decade of the 21st century and between the A2 and B2 scenarios. Over the rest of the globe (about one third), the precipitation frequency decreases but its intensity increases, suggesting a shift of precipitation distribution toward more intense events by global warming. South China is such a region where the summertime wet-day frequency decreases but the precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content due to global warming and an intensified and more westwardly extended North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, which may be related with an El Niño-like mean sea surface temperature change. On the other hand, a decrease in summer precipitation is noted in North China, thus augmenting a south-to-north precipitation contrast more in the future.

  2. Simulation of present-day precipitation over India using a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maurya, Rajesh Kumar Singh; Singh, G. P.

    2016-04-01

    The objective of the present paper is to examine the capability of the regional climate model version 3 (RegCM3) to simulate the annual as well as seasonal precipitation variability over the Indian subcontinent. RegCM3 has been run at 40 km horizontal resolution for the period of 1982-2006 continuously and model results were compared to the observed precipitation datasets of India Meteorological Department (IMD) and CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP). Model evaluation has been done using different statistical methods like mean bias error (MBE), root mean square error, mean percentage error (MPE) and studied the spatial pattern of annual and seasonal variability and trend. Daily precipitation data at 1° × 1° grids of IMD have been used to study observed climatological means (both annual and seasonal), regression trends, interannual and intraseasonal variability over India from 1951 to 2007. The spatial distribution of annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend over west coast of India, central India, hilly region of India and an increasing trend is found over the northwest India, peninsular India and northeast India. The temporal distribution of daily precipitation shows highest rainfall of 18 mm/day in mid July (in composite flood cases only) and 12 mm/day during August (in composite drought cases only). The RegCM3 simulated annual and seasonal precipitation variability is close to the observed IMD and CMAP over all India (AI). During winter and pre-monsoon season, the model has overestimated the mean precipitation while underestimated in summer and post-monsoon season. Overall, annual precipitation showed the deficiency of -22.44 % compared to IMD and -1.41 % compared to CMAP over India. To understand the possible cause of annual and seasonal precipitation biases over India and its six homogeneous regions, the vertical difference (model mines National Centre for Environmental Prediction; NCEP) fields of water vapor mixing ratio (WVMR) and air

  3. Simulation of Radiation Belt Precipitation During the March 17, 2013 Storm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brito, T. V.; Hudson, M. K.; Paral, J.

    2014-12-01

    Balloon-borne instruments detecting radiation belt precipitation frequently observe oscillations in the mHZ frequency range. Several balloon missions measuring electron precipitation near the poles in the 100 keV to 2.5 MeV energy range, including the MAXIS, MINIS, and most recently the BARREL campaign, have observed this modulation at ULF wave frequencies (Clilverd et al., 2007; Millan et al., 2011). However, ULF waves in the magnetosphere, commonly associated with oscillations in solar wind dynamic pressure on the dayside and with Kelvin-Helmhotz instabilities in the flanks, are seldom directly linked to increases in electron precipitation since their oscillation periods are much larger than the gyroperiod and the bounce period of radiation belt electrons. It has been conjectured that ULF oscillations in the magnetosphere may modulate EMIC wave growth rates. EMIC waves, in turn, have long been associated with energetic electron precipitation, since they can cause pitch angle scattering of these particles, thus lowering their mirror points (Miyoshi et al., 2008; Carson et al., 2013). This would explain the ULF modulation of MeV electrons seen by the balloon instruments. However, test particle simulations show that another hypothesis is possible (Brito et al., 2012). 3D simulations of radiation belt electrons were performed to investigate the effect of ULF waves on precipitation. The simulations track the behavior of energetic electrons near the loss cone, using guiding center techniques, coupled with an MHD simulation of the magnetosphere, using the LFM code, during a CME-shock event on March 17, 2013. Results indicate that ULF modulation of precipitation occurs even without the presence of VLF-type waves, which are not resolved in the MHD simulation.

  4. Statistical simulation of ensembles of precipitation fields for data assimilation applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haese, Barbara; Hörning, Sebastian; Chwala, Christian; Bárdossy, András; Schalge, Bernd; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    The simulation of the hydrological cycle by models is an indispensable tool for a variety of environmental challenges such as climate prediction, water resources management, or flood forecasting. One of the crucial variables within the hydrological system, and accordingly one of the main drivers for terrestrial hydrological processes, is precipitation. A correct reproduction of the spatio-temporal distribution of precipitation is crucial for the quality and performance of hydrological applications. In our approach we stochastically generate precipitation fields conditioned on various precipitation observations. Rain gauges provide high-quality information for a specific measurement point, but their spatial representativeness is often rare. Microwave links, e. g. from commercial cellular operators, on the other hand can be used to estimate line integrals of near-surface rainfall information. They provide a very dense observational system compared to rain gauges. A further prevalent source of precipitation information are weather radars, which provide rainfall pattern informations. In our approach we derive precipitation fields, which are conditioned on combinations of these different observation types. As method to generate precipitation fields we use the random mixing method. Following this method a precipitation field is received as a linear combination of unconditional spatial random fields, where the spatial dependence structure is described by copulas. The weights of the linear combination are chosen in the way that the observations and the spatial structure of precipitation are reproduced. One main advantage of the random mixing method is the opportunity to consider linear and non-linear constraints. For a demonstration of the method we use virtual observations generated from a virtual reality of the Neckar catchment. These virtual observations mimic advantages and disadvantages of real observations. This virtual data set allows us to evaluate simulated

  5. Structure and properties of the precipitates formed from condensed solutions of the revised simulated body fluid.

    PubMed

    Dorozhkina, Elena I; Dorozhkin, Sergey V

    2003-11-01

    Precipitation experiments with aqueous solutions of the Kokubo's revised simulated body fluid (rSBF) equal to 2, 4, 8, and 12 times the ionic concentration of human blood plasma were performed. Instead of Hepes, solution pH was adjusted to the desired value of 7.40 +/- 0.02 by either bubbling of CO2 or addition of HCl. The experiments were performed in tightly closed plastic vessels kept at 37.0 +/- 0.2 degrees C for 72 h under permanent shaking. Afterward, the suspensions were filtrated, and the precipitates were collected and analyzed. The results revealed that increasing the concentration of rSBF resulted in great changes in both the structure and the chemical composition of the precipitates. Phosphate substitution for carbonate (although the amounts of calcium and magnesium remained unchanged) and crystallinity decreasing were the most important modifications found in the precipitates formed from the highly condensed solutions of rSBF.

  6. Simulated effects of temperature and precipitation change in several forest ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, D. W.; Susfalk, R. B.; Gholz, H. L.; Hanson, P. J.

    2000-08-01

    The Nutrient Cycling Model (NuCM) was used to investigate the effects of increased temperature (+4°C) and changing precipitation (increased and decreased) on biogeochemical cycling at six forest sites in the United States: a Picea rubens forest at Nolan Divide in the Great Smoky Mountains, North Carolina; mixed deciduous forests at Walker Branch, Tennessee and Coweeta, North Carolina; a Pinus taeda forest at Duke, North Carolina; a P. eliottii forest at Bradford, Florida; and a P. contorta/P. jeffreyii forest at Little Valley, Nevada. Simulations of increased temperature indicated increased evapotranspiration and reduced water flux. Simulations of changes in precipitation indicated disproportionately large variations in soil water flux because of the relative stability of evapotranspiration with changes in precipitation. Increased temperature caused N release from forest floors at all sites. At the N-saturated Nolan Divide site, this resulted in no change in N uptake or growth but increased soil solution Al and NO 3- and increased N leaching losses. At the N-limited sites, the release of N from the forest floor caused increased growth, and, in some cases, increased NO 3- leaching as well, indicating that N released from the forest floor was not efficiently taken up by the vegetation. Increased precipitation caused increased growth, and decreased precipitation caused reduced growth in the N-limited sites because of changes in wet N deposition. Changes in precipitation had no effect on growth in the N-saturated Nolan Divide site, but did cause large changes in soil solution mineral acid anion and Al concentrations. Increased precipitation caused long-term decreases in soil exchangeable base cations in most cases because of the disproportionately large effects on soil water flux; however, increased precipitation caused decreases in exchangeable base cations in cases where atmospheric deposition was a major source of base cations for the system. The simulation results

  7. Simulating Electron Cloud Effects in Heavy-Ion Beams

    SciTech Connect

    Cohen, R.H.; Friedman, A.; Lund, S.W.; Molvik, A.W.; Azevedo, T.; Vay, J.-L.; Stoltz, P.; Veitzer, S.

    2004-08-04

    Stray electrons can be introduced in heavy ion fusion accelerators as a result of ionization of ambient gas or gas released from walls due to halo-ion impact, or as a result of secondary-electron emission. We summarize here results from several studies of electron-cloud accumulation and effects: (1) Calculation of the electron cloud produced by electron desorption from computed beam ion loss; the importance of ion scattering is shown; (2) Simulation of the effect of specified electron cloud distributions on ion beam dynamics. We find electron cloud variations that are resonant with the breathing mode of the beam have the biggest impact on the beam (larger than other resonant and random variations), and that the ion beam is surprisingly robust, with an electron density several percent of the beam density required to produce significant beam degradation in a 200-quadrupole system. We identify a possible instability associated with desorption and resonance with the breathing mode. (3) Preliminary investigations of a long-timestep algorithm for electron dynamics in arbitrary magnetic fields.

  8. Summer precipitation changes over the Yangtze River Valley and North China: Simulations from CMIP3 models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeng, Gang; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Shen, Caiming; Hao, Zhixin

    2014-05-01

    We present a study of summer precipitation changes over the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and North China (NC) simulated from 20 models of the CMIP3 (phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). It is found that the LASG-FGOALS-g1.0 ( fgoals) model has the highest ability in simulating both the interannual variability of individual regions and the seesaw pattern of the two regions observed during the past few decades. Analyses of atmospheric circulations indicate that the variability in precipitation is closely associated with the 850 hPa meridional winds over the two regions. Wetness in the YRV and dryness in NC are corresponding to strong meridional wind gradient and weak meridional wind over these two regions, respectively. The ability of a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) to simulate precipitation changes in the YRV and NC depends on how well the model reproduces both observed associations of precipitation with overlying meridional winds and observed meridional wind features in summer. Analysis of future precipitation changes over the two regions projected by the fgoals model under the IPCC scenarios B1 and A1B suggests a significant increase of 7-15% for NC after 2040s due to the strengthened meridional winds, and a slight increase over the YRV due to less significant intensification of the Mei-yu front.

  9. Effects of air-sea coupling over the North Sea and the Baltic Sea on simulated summer precipitation over Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho-Hagemann, Ha Thi Minh; Gröger, Matthias; Rockel, Burkhardt; Zahn, Matthias; Geyer, Beate; Meier, H. E. Markus

    2017-03-01

    . However, the COSTRICE simulations are generally more accurate than the atmosphere-only CCLM simulations if extreme precipitation is considered, particularly under Northerly Circulation conditions, in which the airflow from the North Atlantic Ocean passes the North Sea in the coupling domain. The air-sea feedback (e.g., wind, evaporation and sea surface temperature) and land-sea interactions are better reproduced with the COSTRICE model system than the atmosphere-only CCLM and lead to an improved simulation of large-scale moisture convergence from the sea to land and, consequently, increased heavy precipitation over Central Europe.

  10. Simulations of The Extreme Precipitation Event Enhanced by Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly over the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hakan Doǧan, Onur; Önol, Barış

    2016-04-01

    Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronautics Faculty, Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey In this study, we examined the extreme precipitation case over the Eastern Black Sea region of Turkey by using regional climate model, RegCM4. The flood caused by excessive rain in August 26, 2010 killed 12 people and the landslides in Rize province have damaged many buildings. The station based two days total precipitation exceeds 200 mm. One of the usual suspects for this extreme event is positive anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Black Sea where the significant warming trend is clear in the last three decades. In August 2010, the monthly mean SST is higher than 3 °C with respect to the period of 1981-2010. We designed three sensitivity simulations with RegCM4 to define the effects of the Black Sea as a moisture source. The simulation domain with 10-km horizontal resolution covers all the countries bordering the Black Sea and simulation period is defined for entire August 2010. It is also noted that the spatial variability of the precipitation produced by the reference simulation (Sim-0) is consistent with the TRMM data. In terms of analysis of the sensitivity to SST, we forced the simulations by subtracting 1 °C (Sim-1), 2 °C (Sim-2) and 3 °C (Sim-3) from the ERA-Interim 6-hourly SST data (considering only the Black Sea). The sensitivity simulations indicate that daily total precipitation for all these simulations gradually decreased based on the reference simulation (Sim-0). 3-hourly maximum precipitation rates for Sim-0, Sim-1, Sim-2 and Sim-3 are 32, 25, 13 and 10.5 mm respectively over the hotspot region. Despite the fact that the simulations signal points out the same direction, degradation of the precipitation intensity does not indicate the same magnitude for all simulations. It is revealed that 2 °C (Sim-2) threshold is critical for SST sensitivity. We also calculated the humidity differences from the simulation and these

  11. Impact of High Resolution Land Surface Information on WRF Simulated Surface Temperature And Precipitation Over China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Y.; He, J.; Xia, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to simulate meteorological fields over China at 10 km spatial resolution for 2006. Near surface temperature and precipitation from WRF were evaluated using site observations. Compared to the default land surface information in WRF (BASE simulation), the impact of accurate and timely land surface information data, including Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data, Moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) land use, vegetation fraction based on MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) data (LAST simulation), on WRF's performance was investigated. Basically, WRF can reproduce the temporal and spatial variations of near surface temperature and precipitation over China. The performance of WRF varied significantly with seasons and regions. WRF underestimated near surface temperature in most areas of the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, Tibet Plateau, Northeast Plain and northeastern Inner Mongolia Plateau, but overestimated it in most areas of the North China Plain, Loess Plateau, Sichuan Basin and western Xinjiang. WRF overestimated (underestimated) precipitation in humid (arid) areas. A positive (negative) bias of precipitation is found in summer (winter). With updated land surface information, WRF's performance for both the average values and extreme climate were improved for near-surface temperature and precipitation. It seems that the uncertainty of land surface information affects more on temperature than on precipitation. The uncertainty of topography is the most important factor affecting the near surface temperature, followed by vegetation fraction, soil type, and land use differences. Performance of precipitation is more closely related to the improvement in land use and vegetation fraction.

  12. Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun; Wu, Tongwen; Huang, Anning; Fang, Yongjie

    2015-07-15

    In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increased precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.

  13. Experimental and numerical simulation of dissolution and precipitation: implications for fracture sealing at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

    PubMed

    Dobson, Patrick F; Kneafsey, Timothy J; Sonnenthal, Eric L; Spycher, Nicolas; Apps, John A

    2003-01-01

    Plugging of flow paths caused by mineral precipitation in fractures above the potential repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada could reduce the probability of water seeping into the repository. As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) effects on flow in fractured media, we performed a laboratory experiment and numerical simulations to investigate mineral dissolution and precipitation under anticipated temperature and pressure conditions in the repository. To replicate mineral dissolution by vapor condensate in fractured tuff, water was flowed through crushed Yucca Mountain tuff at 94 degrees C. The resulting steady-state fluid composition had a total dissolved solids content of about 140 mg/l; silica was the dominant dissolved constituent. A portion of the steady-state mineralized water was flowed into a vertically oriented planar fracture in a block of welded Topopah Spring Tuff that was maintained at 80 degrees C at the top and 130 degrees C at the bottom. The fracture began to seal with amorphous silica within 5 days.A 1-D plug-flow numerical model was used to simulate mineral dissolution, and a similar model was developed to simulate the flow of mineralized water through a planar fracture, where boiling conditions led to mineral precipitation. Predicted concentrations of the major dissolved constituents for the tuff dissolution were within a factor of 2 of the measured average steady-state compositions. The mineral precipitation simulations predicted the precipitation of amorphous silica at the base of the boiling front, leading to a greater than 50-fold decrease in fracture permeability in 5 days, consistent with the laboratory experiment.These results help validate the use of a numerical model to simulate THC processes at Yucca Mountain. The experiment and simulations indicated that boiling and concomitant precipitation of amorphous silica could cause significant reductions in fracture porosity and permeability on a local

  14. HEAVY OIL PROCESS MONITOR: AUTOMATED ON-COLUMN ASPHALTENE PRECIPITATION AND RE-DISSOLUTION

    SciTech Connect

    John F. Schabron; Joseph F. Rovani Jr; Mark Sanderson

    2006-06-01

    About 37-50% (w/w) of the heptane asphaltenes from unpyrolyzed residua dissolve in cyclohexane. As pyrolysis progresses, this number decrease to below 15% as coke and toluene insoluble pre-coke materials appear. This solubility measurement can be used after coke begins to form, unlike the flocculation titration, which cannot be applied to multi-phase systems. Currently, the procedure for the isolation of heptane asphaltenes and the determination of the amount of asphaltenes soluble in cyclohexane spans three days. A more rapid method to measure asphaltene solubility was explored using a novel on-column asphaltene precipitation and re-dissolution technique. This was automated using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) equipment with a step gradient sequence using the solvents: heptane, cyclohexane, toluene:methanol (98:2). Results for four series of original and pyrolyzed residua were compared with data from the gravimetric method. The measurement time was reduced from three days to forty minutes. The separation was expanded further with the use of four solvents: heptane, cyclohexane, toluene, and cyclohexanone or methylene chloride. This provides a fourth peak which represents the most polar components, in the oil.

  15. Mineral dissolution and secondary precipitation on quartz sand in simulated Hanford tank solutions affecting subsurface porosity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Guohui; Um, Wooyong

    2012-11-01

    Highly alkaline nuclear waste solutions have been released from underground nuclear waste storage tanks and pipelines into the vadose zone at the US Department of Energy's Hanford Site in Washington, causing mineral dissolution and re-precipitation upon contact with subsurface sediments. High pH caustic NaNO3 solutions with and without dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand through flow-through columns stepwise at 45, 51, and 89 °C to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste solution and primary subsurface mineral. Upon reaction, Si was released from the dissolution of quartz sand, and nitrate-cancrinite [Na8Si6Al6O24(NO3)2] precipitated on the quartz surface as a secondary mineral phase. Both steady-state dissolution and precipitation kinetics were quantified, and quartz dissolution apparent activation energy was determined. Mineral alteration through dissolution and precipitation processes results in pore volume and structure changes in the subsurface porous media. In this study, the column porosity increased up to 40.3% in the pure dissolution column when no dissolved Al was present in the leachate, whereas up to a 26.5% porosity decrease was found in columns where both dissolution and precipitation were observed because of the presence of Al in the input solution. The porosity change was also confirmed by calculation using the dissolution and precipitation rates and mineral volume changes.

  16. Mineral Dissolution and Secondary Precipitation on Quartz Sand in Simulated Hanford Tank Solutions Affecting Subsurface Porosity

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Guohui; Um, Wooyong

    2012-11-23

    Highly alkaline nuclear waste solutions have been released from underground nuclear waste storage tanks and pipelines into the vadose zone at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Hanford Site in Washington, causing mineral dissolution and re-precipitation upon contact with subsurface sediments. High pH caustic NaNO3 solutions with and without dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand through flow-through columns stepwise at 45, 51, and 89°C to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste solution and primary subsurface mineral. Upon reaction, Si was released from the dissolution of quartz sand, and nitrate-cancrinite [Na8Si6Al6O24(NO3)2] precipitated on the quartz surface as a secondary mineral phase. Both steady-state dissolution and precipitation kinetics were quantified, and quartz dissolution apparent activation energy was determined. Mineral alteration through dissolution and precipitation processes results in pore volume and structure changes in the subsurface porous media. In this study, the column porosity increased up to 40.3% in the pure dissolution column when no dissolved Al was present in the leachate, whereas up to a 26.5% porosity decrease was found in columns where both dissolution and precipitation were observed because of the presence of Al in the input solution. The porosity change was also confirmed by calculation using the dissolution and precipitation rates and mineral volume changes.

  17. Comparison of GCM- and RCM-simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eden, Jonathan M.; Widmann, Martin; Maraun, Douglas; Vrac, Mathieu

    2014-10-01

    In order to assess to what extent regional climate models (RCMs) yield better representations of climatic states than general circulation models (GCMs), the output of each is usually directly compared with observations. RCM output is often bias corrected, and in some cases correction methods can also be applied to GCMs. This leads to the question of whether bias-corrected RCMs perform better than bias-corrected GCMs. Here the first results from such a comparison are presented, followed by discussion of the value added by RCMs in this setup. Stochastic postprocessing, based on Model Output Statistics (MOS), is used to estimate daily precipitation at 465 stations across the United Kingdom between 1961 and 2000 using simulated precipitation from two RCMs (RACMO2 and CCLM) and, for the first time, a GCM (ECHAM5) as predictors. The large-scale weather states in each simulation are forced toward observations. The MOS method uses logistic regression to model precipitation occurrence and a Gamma distribution for the wet day distribution, and is cross validated based on Brier and quantile skill scores. A major outcome of the study is that the corrected GCM-simulated precipitation yields consistently higher validation scores than the corrected RCM-simulated precipitation. This seems to suggest that, in a setup with postprocessing, there is no clear added value by RCMs with respect to downscaling individual weather states. However, due to the different ways of controlling the atmospheric circulation in the RCM and the GCM simulations, such a strong conclusion cannot be drawn. Yet the study demonstrates how challenging it is to demonstrate the value added by RCMs in this setup.

  18. Comparison of SSM/I measurements to numerically-simulated cloud and precipitation during ERICA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Cohen, Charles; Perkey, Donald J.; Lapenta, William

    1990-01-01

    These investigations focused essentially on the macroscale organization of cloud and precipitation which occurred during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP-4) of the Experiment for Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). This experiment, held off the East Coast of the United States and Canada during the winter of 1989, documented several episodes of rapid cyclonic storm development. Also playing a major role as validation and ground truth in these studies are Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals of precipitable water, total liquid water and ice, generated by other Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) supported investigations. Model simulations produced to date suggest that, while the large-scale atmospheric dynamics was an essential driving mechanism, the role of condensation was crucial in facilitating the exceptionally rapid spinup of the cyclone and the low surface pressure. A model simulation of the precipitation rate at the time of most rapid storm intensification is shown in the accompanying figure. Heavier precipitation rates in the crescent shaped region are associated with deep convection along the leading edge of a dry intrusion behind the surface low. The majority of precipitation in the stratiform region to the northeast involved the production of ice with deposition from vapor to ice being the dominant process of growth. Some small amount of mixed phase cloudiness was present. Model condensate distributions matched well with SSM/I observations. The accompanying SSM/I imagery which delineates areas of large (greater than several hundred micron effective radius) precipitating ice over the ocean suggests that the model has done well in capturing the essential mechanisms responsible for the horizontal distribution of precipitation.

  19. Final Progress Report - Heavy Ion Accelerator Theory and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Haber, Irving

    2009-10-31

    The use of a beam of heavy ions to heat a target for the study of warm dense matter physics, high energy density physics, and ultimately to ignite an inertial fusion pellet, requires the achievement of beam intensities somewhat greater than have traditionally been obtained using conventional accelerator technology. The research program described here has substantially contributed to understanding the basic nonlinear intense-beam physics that is central to the attainment of the requisite intensities. Since it is very difficult to reverse intensity dilution, avoiding excessive dilution over the entire beam lifetime is necessary for achieving the required beam intensities on target. The central emphasis in this research has therefore been on understanding the nonlinear mechanisms that are responsible for intensity dilution and which generally occur when intense space-charge-dominated beams are not in detailed equilibrium with the external forces used to confine them. This is an important area of study because such lack of detailed equilibrium can be an unavoidable consequence of the beam manipulations such as acceleration, bunching, and focusing necessary to attain sufficient intensity on target. The primary tool employed in this effort has been the use of simulation, particularly the WARP code, in concert with experiment, to identify the nonlinear dynamical characteristics that are important in practical high intensity accelerators. This research has gradually made a transition from the study of idealized systems and comparisons with theory, to study the fundamental scaling of intensity dilution in intense beams, and more recently to explicit identification of the mechanisms relevant to actual experiments. This work consists of two categories; work in direct support beam physics directly applicable to NDCX and a larger effort to further the general understanding of space-charge-dominated beam physics.

  20. Impact of accurate description of land surface characteristics on simulation of the East Asian monsoon precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Guo, W.; Xue, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Abstract: Land surface characteristics directly determine the energy budget and the surface-atmosphere mass exchange, and subsequently affect the model capability in regional climate simulation. Leaf area index (LAI), one of the important variables in the land surface processes, involves in canopy radiative transfer, momentum transfer, precipitation interception loss, and transpiration, which affect on land surface energy and water partition processes. Therefore, it crucially affects the ability of models to adequately simulate land-surface interaction. In this study, Global Mapping LAI (GLOBMAP LAI) and its corresponding land cover and greenness fraction are introduced into WRF_NMM/SSiB2 during 2002 to 2011. Compared with the control simulation based on the original specified LAI that is based on limited survey, the simulation using GLOBMAP LAI produced better precipitation distribution and rain belt movement. The improvements of the East Asia monsoon precipitation simulation are mainly attributed to the correction of the position of subtropical high. The north edge of subtropical high is related to the position of East Asia Westerly Jet. In the control simulation, weak westerlies lead subtropical high to move northward. Therefore, compared with observations, more precipitation occurs in high latitudes. With imposed remote sensing LAI, the model produces larger meridional temperature gradient in surface and upper air, leading to stronger thermal westerlies. The Southward of Westerly Jet blocks the subtropical high, which amends the position of monsoon rain belt. This study directly takes advantage of recently available remote sensing products, and attributes the improved regional model simulation to proper LAI specification, which leads to adequate land/atmosphere interactions.

  1. Atmospheric Moisture Budget and Spatial Resolution Dependence of Precipitation Extremes in Aquaplanet Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Qing; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Rauscher, Sara; Ringler, Todd; Taylor, Mark

    2014-05-01

    This study investigates the resolution dependency of precipitation extremes in an aqua-planet framework. Strong resolution dependency of precipitation extremes is seen over both tropics and extra-tropics, and the magnitude of this dependency also varies with dynamical cores. Moisture budget analyses based on aqua-planet simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and High Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) dynamical cores but the same physics parameterizations suggest that during precipitation extremes moisture supply for surface precipitation is mainly derived from advective moisture convergence. The resolution dependency of precipitation extremes mainly originates from advective moisture transport in the vertical direction. At most vertical levels over the tropics and in the lower atmosphere over the subtropics, the vertical eddy transport of mean moisture field dominates the contribution to precipitation extremes and its resolution dependency. Over the subtropics, the source of moisture, its associated energy, and the resolution dependency during extremes are dominated by eddy transport of eddies moisture at the mid- and upper-troposphere. With both MPAS and HOMME dynamical cores, the resolution dependency of the vertical advective moisture convergence is mainly explained by dynamical changes (related to vertical velocity or omega), although the vertical gradients of moisture act like averaging kernels to determine the sensitivity of the overall resolution dependency to the changes in omega at different vertical levels. The natural reduction of variability with coarser resolution, represented by areal data averaging (aggregation) effect, largely explains the resolution dependency in omega. The thermodynamic changes, which likely result from non-linear feedback in response to the large dynamical changes, are small compared to the overall changes in dynamics (omega). However, after excluding the

  2. Precipitation-Runoff Simulations of Current and Natural Streamflow Conditions in the Methow River Basin, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ely, D. Matthew

    2003-01-01

    Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. This report describes the construction and calibration of an enhanced precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and evaluates the model as a predictive tool for assessing the current and natural streamflow conditions. This study builds upon a previous precipitation-runoff model for the Methow River Basin and validates the current model using a new, more extensive streamflow data network. The major enhancement was the simulation of current flow conditions with the addition of irrigation diversions, returns, and application. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin and the Modular Modeling System, using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, simulated the hydrologic flow. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-2001 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. A sensitivity analysis was completed using nonlinear regression to determine hydrologic parameters pertinent to the modeling results. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow or baseflow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of annual mean streamflow as a percentage of measured annual mean streamflow for the 10-year calibration period at six of the seven streamflow-gaging stations ranged from -35.2 to +26.2 percent, with 65 percent of the simulated values within 15 percent. One station was intentionally calibrated to over-simulate discharge (simulated discharge greater than measured discharge) in order to compensate for observed channel losses not simulated by the model. Simulation of water years 1960-2001 demonstrated great variability in monthly

  3. Comparison of stochastic MOS corrections for GCM and RCM simulated precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widmann, Martin; Eden, Jonathan; Maraun, Douglas; Vrac, Mathieu

    2014-05-01

    In order to assess to what extent regional climate models (RCMs) yield better representations of climatic states than general circulation models (GCMs) the output of the two model types is usually directly compared with observations and the value added through RCMs has been clearly demonstrated. RCM output is often bias-corrected and in some cases bias correction methods can also be applied to GCMs. The question thus arises what the added value of RCMs in this setup is, i.e. whether bias-corrected RCMs perform better than bias-corrected GCMs. Here we present some first results from such a comparison. We used a stochastic Model Output Statistics (MOS) method, which can be seen as a general version of bias correction, to estimate daily precipitation at 465 UK stations between 1961-2000 using simulated precipitation from the RACMO2 and CCLM RCMs and from the ECHAM5 GCM as predictors. The MOS method uses logistic regression to model rainfall occurrence and a Gamma distribution for the wet-day distribution. All model parameters are made linearly dependent on the predictors, i.e. the simulated precipitation. The fitting and validation of the statistical model requires the daily, large-scale weather states in the RCM and GCM to represent the actual, historic weather situation. For the RCMs this is achieved by using simulations driven by reanalysis data; RACMO2 is just driven at the boundaries, whereas in CCLM the circulation within the model domain is additionally kept close to the reanalysis through spectral nudging. For the GCM we have used a simulation nudged towards ERA40. The model validation is done in a cross-validation setup and is based on Brier scores for occurrence and quantile scores for the estimated probability distributions. The comparison of the validation skills for the two RCM cases shows some improved skill if spectral nudging is used, indicating that on daily timescales RCMs can generate internal variability that needs to be kept in mind when designing

  4. Recent trends in heavy precipitation extremes over Germany: A thorough intercomparison between different statistical approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donner, Reik; Passow, Christian

    2016-04-01

    comparison with GEV and GP-based approaches, quantile regression approaches thus allow for more flexibility and make full use of all available observational values, no matter if extreme or not. Due to the latter fact, trends in extreme values can be more easily assessed based on shorter time series. However, the question under which conditions and to what extent regression and extreme value theory-based approaches provide consistent results has not yet been fully explored. In this study, we provide a thorough inter-comparison between the recent trends in extreme precipitation events (assessed in terms of daily precipitation sums) from a large set of German weather stations as revealed by the classical (monthly) block maxima method with linearly time-dependent GEV parameters and linear quantile regression of the full time series. For the study period from 1951 to 2006, our main findings are as follows: (1) The spatial patterns of quantile trends for various high (>90%) percentiles and trends in the location parameter of the GEV distribution are qualitatively consistent and exhibit significant correlations, which, however, clearly deviate from an ideal correspondence. (2) In comparison with the trend parameters, the intercepts of the respective linear models for the GEV location parameter and different quantiles exhibit considerably larger mutual correlation values. (3) Quantile regression indicates more stations with strongly positive trends in extreme precipitation than the block maxima method. Moreover, the significance statements provided by the GEV statistics are more conservative than those resulting from quantile regression. Significant upward trends are generally restricted to Southern and Western Germany and are almost completely absent in the Northeastern part of the country. (4) More complex GEV models including linear trends in both location and dispersion parameter need to be considered only for a small subset of all stations (202 out of 2342). In most cases

  5. Simulating the transport of heavy charged particles through trabecular spongiosa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gersh, Jacob A.

    As planning continues for manned missions far beyond Low Earth Orbit, a paramount concern remains the flight crew's exposure to galactic cosmic radiation. When humans exit the protective magnetic field of Earth, they become subject to bombardment by highly-reactive heavy charged (HZE) particles. A possible consequence of this two- to three-year-long mission is the onset of radiation-induced leukemia, a disorder with a latency period as short as two to three years. Because data on risk to humans from exposure to HZE particles is non-existent, studies of leukemia in animals are now underway to investigate the relative effectiveness of HZE exposures. Leukemogenesis can result from energy depositions occurring within marrow contained in the trabecular spongiosa. Trabecular spongiosa is found in flat bones and within the ends of long bones, and is characterized by an intricate matrix of interconnected bone tissue forming cavities that house marrow. The microscopic internal dimensions of spongiosa vary between species. As radiation traverses this region, interface-induced dose perturbations that occur at the interfaces between bone and marrow affect the patterns of energy deposition within the region. An aim of this project is to determine the extent by which tissue heterogeneity and microscopic dimensions have on patterns of energy deposition within the trabecular spongiosa. This leads to the development of PATHFIT, a computer code capable of generating simple quadric-based geometric models of trabecular spongiosa for both humans and mice based on actual experimentally-determined internal dimensions of trabecular spongiosa. Following the creation of spongiosa models, focus is placed on the development of HITSPAP, a hybrid Monte Carlo (MC) radiation transport code system that combines capabilities of the MC code PENELOPE and MC code PARTRAC. This code is capable of simulating the transport of HZE particles through accurate models of trabecular spongiosa. The final and

  6. Performance Metrics for Climate Model Evaluation: Application to CMIP5 Precipitation Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehran, A.; AghaKouchak, A.; Phillips, T. J.

    2013-12-01

    Validation of gridded climate model simulations is fundamental to future improvements in model developments. Among the metrics, the contingency table, which includes a number of categorical indices, is extensively used in evaluation studies. While the categorical indices offer invaluable information, they do not provide any insight into the volume of the variable detected correctly/incorrectly. In this study, the contingency table categorical metrics are extended to volumetric indices for evaluation of gridded data. The suggested indices include (a) Volumetric Hit Index (VHI): volume of correctly detected simulations relative to the volume of the correctly detected simulations and missed observations; (b) Volumetric False Alarm Ratio (VFAR): volume of false simulations relative to the sum of simulations; (c) Volumetric Miss Index (VMI): volume of missed observations relative to the sum of missed observations and correctly detected simulations; and (d) the Volumetric Critical Success Index (VCSI). The latter provides an overall measure of volumetric performance including volumetric hits, false alarms and misses. Numerous studies have emphasized that climate simulations are subject to various biases and uncertainties. The objective of this study is to cross-validate 34 Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) historical simulations of precipitation against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data using the proposed performance metrics, quantifying model pattern discrepancies and biases for both entire data distributions and their upper tails. The results of the Volumetric Hit Index (VHI) analysis of the total monthly precipitation amounts show that most CMIP5 simulations are in good agreement with GPCP patterns in many areas, but their replication of observed precipitation over arid regions and certain sub-continental regions (e.g., northern Eurasia, eastern Russia, central Australia) is problematical. Overall, the VHI of the multi

  7. Intercomparison of CMIP5 simulations of summer precipitation, evaporation, and water vapor transport over Yellow and Yangtze River basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Jiawei; Feng, Jinming

    2016-02-01

    Precipitation and other hydrologic variables play important roles in river basins. In this study, summer precipitation, evaporation, and water vapor transport from 16 models that have participated in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the Yellow River basin (a water-limited basin) and the Yangtze River basin (an energy-limited basin) over the period 1986-2005 are analyzed and evaluated. The results suggest that most models tend to overestimate precipitation in the Yellow River basin, whereas precipitation in the Yangtze River basin is generally well simulated. Models that overestimate precipitation in the Yellow River basin also simulate evaporation with large positive biases. For water vapor transport, models and reanalysis data concur that both basins are moisture sinks in summer. In addition, models that strongly overestimate precipitation in the Yellow River basin tend to produce strong water vapor convergence in that region, which is likely to be related to the situation that the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) simulated by these models strengthens and advances further westward and northward, resulting in stronger water vapor convergence in the Yellow River basin. Moreover, convective precipitation biases simulated by the models are also partially responsible for their total precipitation biases. Finally, summer precipitation and evaporation are negatively correlated in the Yangtze River basin, whereas the relation between these variables is weak in the Yellow River basin. In both basins, precipitation and water vapor convergence are positively correlated, which is well simulated by all models.

  8. Reactive plasma upgrade of squalane - a heavy oil simulant

    SciTech Connect

    Kong, P.C.; Watkins, A.D.; Detering, B.A.; Thomas, C.P.

    1995-10-01

    U.S. light crude oil production has steadily declined over the last two decades. However, huge known heavy oil deposits in the North American continent remain largely untapped. In the past 10 years, the API gravity of crude oils has been decreasing by about 0.17% per year, and the sulfur content has been increasing by about 0.027% per year. As the API gravity of crude oil decreases, there will be an urgent need for economically viable new technologies to upgrade the heavy oil to a high API gravity feed stock for the refineries. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory is investigating an innovative plasma process to upgrade heavy oil and refinery residuum. This paper will present some of the results and the implications of this technology for heavy oil upgrade and conversion.

  9. Toward the credibility of Northeast United States summer precipitation projections in CMIP5 and NARCCAP simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thibeault, Jeanne M.; Seth, A.

    2015-10-01

    Precipitation projections for the northeast United States and nearby Canada (Northeast) are examined for 15 Fifth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. A process-based evaluation of atmospheric circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers is performed to examine whether credibility can be differentiated within the multimodel ensemble. Based on these evaluations, and an analysis of the interannual statistical properties of area-averaged precipitation, model subsets were formed. Multimodel precipitation projections from each subset were compared to the multimodel projection from all of the models. Higher-resolution North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) regional climate models (RCMs) were subjected to a similar evaluation, grouping into subsets, and examination of future projections. CMIP5 models adequately simulate most large-scale circulation features associated with wet Northeast summers, though all have errors in simulating observed sea level pressure and moisture divergence anomalies in the western tropical Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico. Relevant large-scale processes simulated by the RCMs resemble those of their driving global climate models (GCMs), which are not always realistic. Future RCM studies could benefit from a process analysis of potential driving GCMs prior to dynamical downscaling. No CMIP5 or NARCCAP models were identified as clearly more credible, but six GCMs and four RCMs performed consistently better. Among the "Better" models, there is no consistency in the direction of future summer precipitation change. CMIP5 projections suggest that the Northeast precipitation response depends on the dynamics of the North Atlantic anticyclone and associated circulation and moisture convergence patterns, which vary among "Better" models. Even when model credibility cannot be clearly differentiated, examination of simulated processes provides important insights into their evolution under

  10. Large-eddy simulation of a turbulent flow over a heavy vehicle with drag reduction devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sangseung; Kim, Myeongkyun; You, Donghyun

    2015-11-01

    Aerodynamic drag contributes to a considerable amount of energy loss of heavy vehicles. To reduce the energy loss, drag reduction devices such as side skirts and boat tails, are often installed to the side and the rear of a heavy vehicle. In the present study, turbulent flow around a heavy vehicle with realistic geometric details is simulated using large-eddy simulation (LES), which is capable of providing unsteady flow physics responsible for aerodynamic in sufficient detail. Flow over a heavy vehicle with and without a boat tail and side skirts as drag reduction devices is simulated. The simulation results are validated against accompanying in-house experimental measurements. Effects of a boat tail and side skirts on drag reduction are discussed in detail. Supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA) Grant NTIS 1615007940.

  11. Preparation and Heat-Treatment of DWPF Simulants With and Without Co-Precipitated Noble Metals

    SciTech Connect

    Koopman, David C.:Eibling, Russel E

    2005-08-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory is in the process of investigating factors suspected of impacting catalytic hydrogen generation in the Chemical Process Cell of the Defense Waste Processing Facility, DWPF. Noble metal catalyzed hydrogen generation in simulation work constrains the allowable acid addition operating window in DWPF. This constraint potentially impacts washing strategies during sludge batch preparation. It can also influence decisions related to the addition of secondary waste streams to a sludge batch. Noble metals have historically been added as trim chemicals to process simulations. The present study investigated the potential conservatism that might be present from adding the catalytic species as trim chemicals to the final sludge simulant versus co-precipitating the noble metals into the insoluble sludge solids matrix. Parallel preparations of two sludge simulants targeting the composition of Sludge Batch 3 were performed in order to evaluate the impact of the form of noble metals. Identical steps were used except that one simulant had dissolved palladium, rhodium, and ruthenium present during the precipitation of the insoluble solids. Noble metals were trimmed into the other stimulant prior to process tests. Portions of both sludge simulants were held at 97 C for about eight hours to qualitatively simulate the effects of long term storage on particle morphology and speciation. The simulants were used as feeds for Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank, SRAT, process simulations. The following conclusions were drawn from the simulant preparation work: (1) The first preparation of a waste slurry simulant with co-precipitated noble metals was successful, based on the data obtained. It appears that 99+% of the noble metals were retained in the simulant. (2) Better control of carbonate, hydroxide, and post-wash trim chemical additions is needed before the new method of simulant preparation will be as reproducible as the old method. (3) The two new

  12. Removal of heavy metal Cu(II) in simulated aquaculture wastewater by modified palygorskite.

    PubMed

    Cao, Jia-Shun; Wang, Cheng; Fang, Fang; Lin, Jun-Xiong

    2016-12-01

    Palygorskite (PAL) is a good heavy metal adsorbent due to its high surface area, low cost, and environmentally compatibility. But the natural PAL has limited its adsorption capacity and selectivity. In this study, a cost-effective and readily-generated absorbent, l-threonine-modified palygorskite (L-PAL), was used and its performance for Cu(II) removal in simulated aquaculture wastewater was evaluated. After preparation, L-PAL was characterized by using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, scanning electron microscope, energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometer, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy and thermogravimetric analysis. The impacts of pH, adsorbent dosage, contact time, and initial Cu(II) concentration on the adsorption capacity of L-PAL were examined. The Cu(II) adsorption capacity on L-PAL was enhanced almost 10 times than that of raw PAL. The adsorption isotherms of Cu(II) fit the Langmuir isotherms, and the adsorption kinetics was dominated by the pseudo-second-order model. The thermodynamic parameters at four temperatures were calculated, which indicated that the adsorption was spontaneous and endothermic. The adsorption mechanism involves complexation, chelation, electrostatic attraction, and micro-precipitation. Furthermore, L-PAL is shown to have a high regeneration capacity. These results indicate that L-PAL is a cheap and promising absorbent for Cu(II) removal and hold potential to be used for aquaculture wastewater treatment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Low-frequency oscillations of the East Asia-Pacific teleconnection pattern and their impacts on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Lei; Zhai, Panmao; Chen, Yang; Ni, Yunqi

    2016-06-01

    Based on the daily reanalysis data from NCEP-NCAR and daily precipitation data from the China National Meteorological Information Center, an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method is employed to extract the predominant oscillation modes of the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) teleconnection pattern. The influences of these low-frequency modes on persistent heavy precipitation in the Yangtze-Huai River (YHR) valley are investigated. The results indicate that the EAP pattern and rainfall in YHR valley both exhibit remarkable 10-30- and 30-60-day oscillations. The impacts of the EAP pattern on the YHR persistent heavy precipitation can be found on both the 10-30- and 30-60-day timescales—the 10-30-day scale for most cases. Composite analysis indicates that, on the 10-30-day timescale, formation of the EAP pattern in the lower and middle troposphere is determined by convective systems near the tropical western Pacific; whereas in the middle troposphere, the phase transition is jointly contributed by both the dispersion of zonal wave energies at higher latitudes and convective systems over the South China Sea. In the context of the 10-30-day EAP pattern, the anomalously abundant moisture is transported by an anomalous subtropical anticyclone system, and strong moisture convergence results from that anomalous anticyclone system and a cyclonic system in the midlatitude East Asia. Such a combination of systems persists for at least three days, contributing to the formation of persistent heavy precipitation in the YHR valley.

  14. Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kolars, Kelsey A.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Ryberg, Karen R.

    2016-02-24

    The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses.Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states.A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state.A water

  15. Improving the Canadian Precipitation Analysis Estimates through an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abbasnezhadi, K.; Rasmussen, P. F.; Stadnyk, T.

    2014-12-01

    To gain a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall over the Churchill River basin, this study was undertaken. The research incorporates gridded precipitation data from the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) system. CaPA has been developed by Environment Canada and provides near real-time precipitation estimates on a 10 km by 10 km grid over North America at a temporal resolution of 6 hours. The spatial fields are generated by combining forecasts from the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with precipitation observations from the network of synoptic weather stations. CaPA's skill is highly influenced by the number of weather stations in the region of interest as well as by the quality of the observations. In an attempt to evaluate the performance of CaPA as a function of the density of the weather station network, a dual-stage design algorithm to simulate CaPA is proposed which incorporates generated weather fields. More specifically, we are adopting a controlled design algorithm which is generally known as Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE). The advantage of using the experiment is that one can define reference precipitation fields assumed to represent the true state of rainfall over the region of interest. In the first stage of the defined OSSE, a coupled stochastic model of precipitation and temperature gridded fields is calibrated and validated. The performance of the generator is then validated by comparing model statistics with observed statistics and by using the generated samples as input to the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model. In the second stage of the experiment, in order to account for the systematic error of station observations and GEM fields, representative errors are to be added to the reference field using by-products of CaPA's variographic analysis. These by-products explain the variance of station observations and background errors.

  16. Improved precipitation extremes and climatology in a regional coupled model simulation over CORDEX south Asia domain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, P.; Sein, D.; Cabos, W.; Jacob, D.

    2014-12-01

    The South Asian continents are densely populated and their economy is largely dependent on agriculture which primarily depends on the summer monsoon (June-September). The region is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. It has been well established that the SST anomalies in the Indian and the Pacific Ocean attributes to the monsoon interannual as well as intraseasonal variability. Most of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models have difficulty in simulating the mean climate over South Asia. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) however simulate orographic induced precipitation better, but show limited ability to simulate mean precipitation over land and an overestimation over ocean more generally. These systematic differences between climate models and observation's may be related to poorly represented ocean dynamics and SST.For the first time a regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model is developed to study the monsoon climatology over the CORDEX South Asia domain. The REgional atmosphere MOdel REMO with 50km horizontal resolution is coupled via Oasis coupler to the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology global ocean - sea ice model MPIOM with increased resolution over the Indian Ocean (up to 20 km). Hereafter this coupled system will be called as ROM. For this study, four simulations for the period 1958-2001 are performed (i) REMO forced with ECMWF ERA40 reanalysis (ii) ROM forced with ECMWF ERA40 reanalysis (iii) REMO forced with MPI-ESM-LR CMIP5 historical simulation (iv) ROM forced with MPI-ESM-LR CMIP5 historical simulation. Differences in coupled and un-coupled RCM simulations are analyzed to investigate the effect of coupling on simulated climate, especially precipitation daily annual cycles and monthly spatial patterns. It has been observed that simulated feedback of ocean SST has positive influence on precipitation simulation of ROM both over land and ocean. The intensity of tropical cyclone is well simulated by the model ROM which improves the monsoon

  17. Two-way Valorization of Blast Furnace Slag: Synthesis of Precipitated Calcium Carbonate and Zeolitic Heavy Metal Adsorbent.

    PubMed

    Georgakopoulos, Evangelos; Santos, Rafael M; Chiang, Yi Wai; Manovic, Vasilije

    2017-02-21

    The aim of this work is to present a zero-waste process for storing CO2 in a stable and benign mineral form while producing zeolitic minerals with sufficient heavy metal adsorption capacity. To this end, blast furnace slag, a residue from iron-making, is utilized as the starting material. Calcium is selectively extracted from the slag by leaching with acetic acid (2 M CH3COOH) as the extraction agent. The filtered leachate is subsequently physico-chemically purified and then carbonated to form precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) of high purity (<2 wt% non-calcium impurities, according to ICP-MS analysis). Sodium hydroxide is added to neutralize the regenerated acetate. The morphological properties of the resulting calcitic PCC are tuned for its potential application as a filler in papermaking. In parallel, the residual solids from the extraction stage are subjected to hydrothermal conversion in a caustic solution (2 M NaOH) that leads to the predominant formation of a particular zeolitic mineral phase (detected by XRD), namely analcime (NaAlSi2O6∙H2O). Based on its ability to adsorb Ni(2+), as reported from batch adsorption experiments and ICP-OES analysis, this product can potentially be used in wastewater treatment or for environmental remediation applications.

  18. Two-way Valorization of Blast Furnace Slag: Synthesis of Precipitated Calcium Carbonate and Zeolitic Heavy Metal Adsorbent

    PubMed Central

    Georgakopoulos, Evangelos; Santos, Rafael M.; Chiang, Yi Wai; Manovic, Vasilije

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present a zero-waste process for storing CO2 in a stable and benign mineral form while producing zeolitic minerals with sufficient heavy metal adsorption capacity. To this end, blast furnace slag, a residue from iron-making, is utilized as the starting material. Calcium is selectively extracted from the slag by leaching with acetic acid (2 M CH3COOH) as the extraction agent. The filtered leachate is subsequently physico-chemically purified and then carbonated to form precipitated calcium carbonate (PCC) of high purity (<2 wt% non-calcium impurities, according to ICP-MS analysis). Sodium hydroxide is added to neutralize the regenerated acetate. The morphological properties of the resulting calcitic PCC are tuned for its potential application as a filler in papermaking. In parallel, the residual solids from the extraction stage are subjected to hydrothermal conversion in a caustic solution (2 M NaOH) that leads to the predominant formation of a particular zeolitic mineral phase (detected by XRD), namely analcime (NaAlSi2O6∙H2O). Based on its ability to adsorb Ni2+, as reported from batch adsorption experiments and ICP-OES analysis, this product can potentially be used in wastewater treatment or for environmental remediation applications. PMID:28287605

  19. A road map for improving dry-bias in simulating the South Asian monsoon precipitation by climate models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goswami, Bidyut Bikash; Goswami, B. N.

    2017-09-01

    An outstanding problem of climate models is the persistent dry bias in simulating precipitation over the south Asian summer monsoon region. Guided by observations, it is hypothesized that the dry-bias in simulating precipitation by the models is related to underestimation of high pass variance by most models. An analysis of the simulated mean and variance in precipitation by 36 coupled models show that the dry bias in simulating the mean precipitation by the models is indeed proportional to the underestimation of the variance. Models also indicate that the underestimation of the high-pass variance arise due to the underestimation of the intense rainfall events by models. Further, it is found that the higher resolution models simulate increasingly reduced dry bias by simulating high-frequency variance better through better simulation probability of intense rainfall events. The robustness of our findings over different regions and during both boreal summer and winter seasons indicates the universality of the hypothesis.

  20. Non-stationary analysis of the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation over Canada and their relations to large-scale climate patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y. Y.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, because the frequency and severityof floods have increased across Canada, it is importantto understand the characteristics of Canadian heavy precipitation.Long-term precipitation data of 463 gauging stationsof Canada were analyzed using non-stationary generalizedextreme value distribution (GEV), Poisson distribution andgeneralized Pareto (GP) distribution. Time-varying covariatesthat represent large-scale climate patterns such as ElNiño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and NorthPacific Oscillation (NP) were incorporated to parametersof GEV, Poisson and GP distributions. Results show thatGEV distributions tend to under-estimate annual maximumdaily precipitation (AMP) of western and eastern coastalregions of Canada, compared to GP distributions. Poissonregressions show that temporal clusters of heavy precipitationevents in Canada are related to large-scale climatepatterns. By modeling AMP time series with non-stationaryGEV and heavy precipitation with non-stationary GPdistributions, it is evident that AMP and heavy precipitationof Canada show strong non-stationarities (abrupt andslowly varying changes) likely because of the influence oflarge-scale climate patterns. AMP in southwestern coastalregions, southern Canadian Prairies and the Great Lakes tend to be higher in El Niño than in La Niña years, whileAMP of other regions of Canada tends to be lower in ElNiño than in La Niña years. The influence of ENSO onheavy precipitation was spatially consistent but strongerthan on AMP. The effect of PDO, NAO and NP on extremeprecipitation is also statistically significant at some stationsacross Canada.

  1. Observations and simulations of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naegele, Alexandra Claire

    The first part of this study focuses on the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle as seen in observations. In the global energy budget, the atmospheric radiative cooling (ARC) is approximately balanced by latent heating, but on regional scales, the ARC and precipitation are inversely related. We use precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project and radiative flux data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project to investigate the radiative constraint on the hydrologic cycle and how it changes in both space and time. We find that the effect of clouds is to decrease the ARC in the tropics, and to increase the ARC in middle and higher latitudes. We find that, spatially, precipitation and the ARC are negatively correlated in the tropics, and positively correlated in middle and higher latitudes. In terms of the global mean, the precipitation rate and the ARC are temporally out-of-phase during the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the second part of this study, we use a cloud-resolving model to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between precipitation and the ARC. In particular, we explore how the relationship between precipitation and the ARC is affected by convective aggregation, in which the convective activity is confined to a small portion of the domain that is surrounded by a much larger region of dry, subsiding air. We investigate the responses of the ARC and precipitation rate to changes in the sea surface temperature (SST), domain size, and microphysics parameterization. Both fields increase with increasing SST and the use of 2-moment microphysics. The precipitation and ARC show evidence of convective aggregation, and in the domain average, both fields increase as a result. While running these sensitivity tests, we observed a pulsation in the convective precipitation rate, once aggregation had occurred. The period of the pulsation is on the order of ten simulated hours for a domain size of 768 km

  2. Nitrate-cancrinite precipitation on quartz sand in simulated Hanford tank solutions.

    PubMed

    Bickmore, B R; Nagy, K L; Young, J S; Drexler, J W

    2001-11-15

    Caustic NaNO3 solutions containing dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand at 89 degrees C to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste and primary subsurface minerals at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site in Washington. Nitrate-cancrinite began to precipitate onto the quartz after 2-10 days, cementing the grains together. Estimates of the equilibrium constant for the precipitation reaction differ for solutions with 0.1 or 1.0 m OH- (log Keq = 30.4 +/- 0.8 and 36.2 +/- 0.6, respectively). The difference in solubility may be attributable to more perfect crystallinity (i.e., fewer stacking faults) in the higher-pH cancrinite structure. This is supported by electron micrographs of crystal morphology and measured rates of Na volatilization under an electron beam. Precipitate crystallinity may affect radionuclide mobility, because stacking faults in the cancrinite structure can diminish its zeolitic cation exchange properties. The precipitation rate near the onset of nucleation depends on the total Al and Si concentrations in solution. The evolution of experimental Si concentrations was modeled by considering the dependence of quartz dissolution rate on AI(OH)4- activity, cancrinite precipitation, and the reduction of reactive surface area of quartz due to coverage by cancrinite.

  3. Nitrate-Cancrinite Precipitation on Quartz Sand in Simulated Hanford Tank Solutions

    SciTech Connect

    Bickmore, Barry R.; Nagy, Kathryn L.; Young, James S. ); Drexler, John W.

    2001-10-13

    High pH, high NaNO3 solutions with varying amounts of dissolved Al were reacted with quartz sand at 88.7 degrees Celcius in order to simulate possible reactions between leaked nuclear waste fluid and primary subsurface minerals at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site in Washington. After 2-10 days, nitrate-cancrinite, a feldspathoid mineral with a zeolite-like crystal structure, precipitated onto the quartz surfaces, cementing the grains together. Estimates of the Keq for the precipitation reaction differ for solutions with 0.1 or 1.0 m OH- (log Keq= 30.4+/- 0.8 and 36.2+/-, respectively). It is inferred that the difference in solubility is attribute to more perfectly crystallinity (i.e., fewer stacking faults) in the higher-pH cancrinite structure. This hypothesis is supported by electron micrographs of crystal morphology and measured rates of Na volatilization under an electron beam. Precipitate crystallinity may be important for radionuclide mobility, because stacking faults in the cancrinite structure can negate its zeolitic cation exchange properties. The log of the precipitation rate depends linearly on the activity of Al(OH)4-in solution. The evolution of Si concentration in experimental solutions was successfully modeled by considering the dependence of quartz dissolution rate on Al(OH)4- activity, cancrinite precipitation, and the reduction of reactive surface area of quartz due to coverage by cancrinite.

  4. Precipitation and atmospheric features over the Intra - Americas seas simulated by CPTEC/INPE AGCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silveira, V. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.; Kubota, P.; Bonatti, P.

    2013-05-01

    A new version of the CPTEC/INPE AGCM is used to analyze the Intra-Americas seas region features compared to the observations. The climate results consist on an ensemble of four integrations with Kuo and Grell convection schemes and large scale and microphysics precipitation. The observations are obtained from GPCP and ERA- Interim. The general precipitation and atmospheric features simulated by the model, such as the subtropical Atlantic and Pacific Highs, the jetstreams and humidity fluxes are well represented by the model. Negative precipitation bias occurs over southeastern North America, Amazonia and southeastern South America, while there are positive bias over Central America and Caribbean region, but the bias are lower than in the old version. DJF and JJA seasons show the seasonality of Southern and Northern Hemisphere as well as the changes in the Intra-Americas seas. The model's Southern Oscillation Index compares well with the observation and El Nino influence on Northeastern and Southern Brazil precipitation is well captured by the model. The model represents the Summer anticyclonic circulation at high levels over South America (Bolivian High) and North America (Mexican High) associated with monsoon features. Interseasonal and interannual precipitation variability in the intertropics are linked to humidity flux in the Inter-Americas seas region, as the fluxes are directed from one hemisphere to the other.

  5. Evaluation of simulated precipitation: Recent trends in extreme indices over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yhang, Yoo-Bin

    2014-05-01

    Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. We investigated the ability of a regional climate model to provide the characteristics of East Asian climate focusing on summer and winter monsoon using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. The model can reproduce large scale features associated the East Asian summer and winter monsoon in terms of 30-year (1979-2008) seasonal mean climate. However, accurate prediction of monsoon precipitation is still a challenging task. Precipitation is one of the most important results generated during the model simulation. It is also generally the most difficult variable to simulate correctly in a regional model. Therefore, we will focus on precipitation to examine variability and uncertainty over East Asia in terms of extreme indices. The assessment of simulated precipitation is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

  6. Juno/JEDI observations of energetic particles near closest approach to Jupiter - Evidence for heavy ion precipitation in the Jovian auroral region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haggerty, Dennis; Mauk, Barry; Paranicas, Chris; Clark, George; Kollmann, Peter; Rymer, Abigail; Bolton, Scott; Connerney, Jack; Levin, Steve

    2017-04-01

    The Juno spacecraft's polar orbit provides an exceptional opportunity to study auroral processes in the largest and most dynamic auroral region in the solar system. The Jupiter Energetic particle Detector Instruments (JEDI) have SSD telescopes with multiple look directions and additional time-of-flight capabilities to measure ions and electrons from 6 keV to 20 MeV. These instruments resolve major ion species beginning at 30 keV/n, with coarser mass resolution for lower energy ions. JEDI instruments observed energetic heavy ions up to 20 MeV precipitating into the auroral regions during the first few Juno perijoves that have occurred to date. The observed heavy ion intensity was lower than expected, but composition of the precipitating ions included the predicted species oxygen and sulfur. During the first perijove pass, an unexpected element was observed with an atomic mass between oxygen and sulfur with intensity comparable to the other heavy ions. Preliminary analysis of the JEDI composition data indicates magnesium, with an unexpected energy spectrum beginning around 500 keV and extending up through 20 MeV. During the third perijove pass no significant intensity of energetic magnesium was observed, which suggests that the source of this element is intermittent. We report on the new findings of energetic heavy ions from the first few Juno orbits including the auroral regions, observations through closest approach, and discuss possible source mechanisms for the unexpected and transient observation of heavy ions.

  7. The added value of convection permitting simulations of extreme precipitation events over the eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zittis, G.; Bruggeman, A.; Camera, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Lelieveld, J.

    2017-07-01

    Climate change is expected to substantially influence precipitation amounts and distribution. To improve simulations of extreme rainfall events, we analyzed the performance of different convection and microphysics parameterizations of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model at very high horizontal resolutions (12, 4 and 1 km). Our study focused on the eastern Mediterranean climate change hot-spot. Five extreme rainfall events over Cyprus were identified from observations and were dynamically downscaled from the ERA-Interim (EI) dataset with WRF. We applied an objective ranking scheme, using a 1-km gridded observational dataset over Cyprus and six different performance metrics, to investigate the skill of the WRF configurations. We evaluated the rainfall timing and amounts for the different resolutions, and discussed the observational uncertainty over the particular extreme events by comparing three gridded precipitation datasets (E-OBS, APHRODITE and CHIRPS). Simulations with WRF capture rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean reasonably well for three of the five selected extreme events. For these three cases, the WRF simulations improved the ERA-Interim data, which strongly underestimate the rainfall extremes over Cyprus. The best model performance is obtained for the January 1989 event, simulated with an average bias of 4% and a modified Nash-Sutcliff of 0.72 for the 5-member ensemble of the 1-km simulations. We found overall added value for the convection-permitting simulations, especially over regions of high-elevation. Interestingly, for some cases the intermediate 4-km nest was found to outperform the 1-km simulations for low-elevation coastal parts of Cyprus. Finally, we identified significant and inconsistent discrepancies between the three, state of the art, gridded precipitation datasets for the tested events, highlighting the observational uncertainty in the region.

  8. Simulated precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia using different CAPE-based convective closure schemes in WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Zhang, Yaocun; Huang, Anning; Qian, Yun; Zhang, Lujun

    2017-05-01

    Closure assumption in convection parameterization is critical for reasonably modeling the precipitation diurnal variation in climate models. This study evaluates the precipitation diurnal cycles over East Asia during the summer of 2008 simulated with three convective available potential energy (CAPE) based closure assumptions, i.e. CAPE-relaxing (CR), quasi-equilibrium (QE), and free-troposphere QE (FTQE) and investigates the impacts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) mixing, advection, and radiation on the simulation by using the weather research and forecasting model. The sensitivity of precipitation diurnal cycle to PBL vertical resolution is also examined. Results show that the precipitation diurnal cycles simulated with different closures all exhibit large biases over land and the simulation with FTQE closure agrees best with observation. In the simulation with QE closure, the intensified PBL mixing after sunrise is responsible for the late-morning peak of convective precipitation, while in the simulation with FTQE closure, convective precipitation is mainly controlled by advection cooling. The relative contributions of different processes to precipitation formation are functions of rainfall intensity. In the simulation with CR closure, the dynamical equilibrium in the free troposphere still can be reached, implying the complex cause-effect relationship between atmospheric motion and convection. For simulations in which total CAPE is consumed for the closures, daytime precipitation decreases with increased PBL resolution because thinner model layer produces lower convection starting layer, leading to stronger downdraft cooling and CAPE consumption. The sensitivity of the diurnal peak time of precipitation to closure assumption can also be modulated by changes in PBL vertical resolution. The results of this study help us better understand the impacts of various processes on the precipitation diurnal cycle simulation.

  9. Modelling and dynamic simulation of struvite precipitation from source-separated urine.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Philip A; Wallace, James W; Tickle, Julian C

    2013-01-01

    A model of a mixed-mode nutrient recovery reactor is developed for a urine feed, incorporating complex solution thermodynamics, dynamic conservation relations and a power-law kinetic expression for crystal growth from seed crystals. Simulations at nominal operating conditions predict phosphorus recoveries greater than 99%, based on existing process kinetic parameters and operating conditions employed in previously published studies. The overall rate of nutrient recovery depends on the saturation index of the precipitating solid, the available surface area for mass transfer and the feed rate of the limiting constituent ion. Under the conditions considered, the nutrient feed rate appears to be the limiting factor for precipitation. Simulations demonstrate that diurnal feed flow variations of ±50% have a small effect on the rate of nutrient recovery. Overall, the study shows that valuable insights are gained in relation to process performance predictions, which should lead to more confident process design, operation and control.

  10. Application of microwave energy for in-drum solidification of simulated precipitation sludge

    SciTech Connect

    Petersen, R.D.; Johnson, A.J.; Swanson, S.D.; Thomas, R.L.

    1987-08-17

    The application of microwave energy for in-container solidification of simulated transuranic contaminated precipitation sludges has been tested. Results indicate volume reductions to 83% are achievable by the continuous feeding of pre-dried sludge into a waste container while applying microwave energy. An economic evaluation was completed showing achievable volume and weight reductions to 87% compared with a current immobilization process for wet sludge. 7 refs., 15 figs., 16 tabs.

  11. Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model Simulations of Precipitation in the Central Andes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nicholls, Stephen D.; Mohr, Karen I.

    2015-01-01

    The meridional extent and complex orography of the South American continent contributes to a wide diversity of climate regimes ranging from hyper-arid deserts to tropical rainforests to sub-polar highland regions. In addition, South American meteorology and climate are also made further complicated by ENSO, a powerful coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon. Modelling studies in this region have typically resorted to either atmospheric mesoscale or atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models. The latter offers full physics and high spatial resolution, but it is computationally inefficient typically lack an interactive ocean, whereas the former offers high computational efficiency and ocean-atmosphere coupling, but it lacks adequate spatial and temporal resolution to adequate resolve the complex orography and explicitly simulate precipitation. Explicit simulation of precipitation is vital in the Central Andes where rainfall rates are light (0.5-5 mm hr-1), there is strong seasonality, and most precipitation is associated with weak mesoscale-organized convection. Recent increases in both computational power and model development have led to the advent of coupled ocean-atmosphere mesoscale models for both weather and climate study applications. These modelling systems, while computationally expensive, include two-way ocean-atmosphere coupling, high resolution, and explicit simulation of precipitation. In this study, we use the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST), a fully-coupled mesoscale atmosphere-ocean modeling system. Previous work has shown COAWST to reasonably simulate the entire 2003-2004 wet season (Dec-Feb) as validated against both satellite and model analysis data when ECMWF interim analysis data were used for boundary conditions on a 27-9-km grid configuration (Outer grid extent: 60.4S to 17.7N and 118.6W to 17.4W).

  12. Impact of model resolution on the simulation of diurnal variations of precipitation over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Emilia Kyung; Choi, In-Jin; Kim, So-Young; Han, Ji-Young

    2016-02-01

    The impact of model resolution on the simulation of diurnal variations of precipitation over East Asia during the summer monsoon period of 2006 is investigated by conducting a suite of ensemble simulations of three different cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), which are Kain-Fritsch, Kain-Fritsch with a modified trigger function, and Simplified Arakawa-Schubert, and the convection-permitting (CP) setting with the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The horizontal resolutions of 50 km, 27 km, and 9 km are applied for each different representation of convection process. Model simulations as a whole are able to mimic the diurnal and semidiurnal cycles with 24 h and 12 h peaks in the morning and the afternoon. However, the simulated afternoon peaks over land are earlier in the CPS runs, while delayed in the CP runs, compared to those observed. The increase of resolution improves the phase and amplitude of diurnal variations in the CP runs due to the explicit representation of the realistic cloud system. In addition, the contribution of nonconvective precipitation from the microphysical process significantly improves the phase of diurnal variations in the CPS runs, especially the afternoon peak over land. The KFtr scheme outperforms other schemes in reproducing the diurnal variations due to the relatively dominant role of nonconvective precipitation. Phase does not change with increasing resolution in the diurnal variations of convective precipitation. Only the modification of the convection scheme, such as the alternative trigger function in the KFtr scheme distinguished from the KF scheme, can make fundamental changes in phase of diurnal variation.

  13. Forecasting gastrointestinal precipitation and oral pharmacokinetics of dantrolene in dogs using an in vitro precipitation testing coupled with in silico modeling and simulation.

    PubMed

    Kambayashi, Atsushi; Dressman, Jennifer B

    2017-10-01

    The aim of the current research was to determine the precipitation kinetics of dantrolene sodium using canine biorelevant in vitro testing and to model the precipitation kinetics by appropriately coupling the data with an in silico tool adapted for dogs. The precipitation profiles of dantrolene sodium solutions were obtained with the in vitro paddle apparatus at a revolution rate of 50rpm. The in silico prediction tool was designed using STELLA software and the predicted plasma concentration profiles of dantrolene using the in vitro precipitation data were compared with the observed in vivo pharmacokinetics in beagle dogs. The plasma profiles of dantrolene, which served as a model weakly acidic drug which precipitates in the upper gastrointestinal tract, was successfully predicted using the in vitro precipitation testing coupled with the in silico modeling and simulation approach. The approach was subsequently used to forecast the effect of pharmaceutical excipients (HPMC/PG) on the ability of the drug to supersaturate in the gut and the resulting pharmacokinetics. The agreement of the simulated pharmacokinetics with the observed values confirms the ability of canine biorelevant media to predict oral performance of enhanced dosage forms in dogs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Moroccan precipitation in a regional climate change simulation, evaluating a statistical downscaling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Driouech, F.; Déqué, M.; Sánchez-Gómez, E.

    2009-09-01

    Morocco is located at the extreme north-west of Africa between 20 and 37° N. According to the aridity index of De Martonne classification, Moroccan climate varies from sub-humid in the north to arid in the south. The country has experienced several drought events which have had marked impacts on socio-economic sectors and national economy (1940-1945, 1980-1985, 1994-1995 …). During a dry year, the deficit of rainfall can exceed 60% of the climatological value. Rainfall amounts registered show a negative trend at national and regional scales. The drought seems to become more persistent over time. At the same time, the total number of wet days shows a negative trend revealing an increase in the annual dry day number. Many regions became more arid (According to the aridity index of De Martonne) between 1961 and 2008: namely Oujda, Taza, Kenitra, Rabat, Meknès. In order to evaluate climate change impacts on Moroccan winter precipitation, future climate conditions in Morocco under the SRES scenario A1B, are studied by using two 30-year time-slice simulations performed by the variable resolution configuration of the GCM ARPEGE-Climat. The spatial resolution ranges between 50 and 60 km over the country. This high resolution scenarios exhibit for the period 2021-2050 a change in the precipitation distribution and in extreme events. In particular, the precipitation amounts and the occurrence frequency of wet days will decrease in the scenario on all the fourteen stations considered. In terms of extreme events, the maximum dry spell length increases in nearly all the stations and the frequency of high precipitation events is projected to decrease. The evolution of highest percentiles of precipitation distribution does not go, however, in the same sense everywhere. Assessment of a range of uncertainties due to climate modelling has been done by using present-day and SRES scenario A1B data issued from 10 ENSEMBLES-RCMs. This shows that ARPEGE-Climate results are in the

  15. Molecular-dynamics simulations and x-ray analysis of dye precipitates in the polyelectrolyte microcapsules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saphiannikova, Marina; Radtchenko, Igor; Sukhorukov, Gleb; Shchukin, Dmitri; Yakimansky, Alexander; Ilnytskyi, Jaroslav

    2003-05-01

    The precipitate of the Disperse Red-1 dye in bulk and in confined microsized volumes was investigated by x-ray powder diffraction and molecular-dynamics simulations. The diffraction patterns exhibited two different precipitation regimes: In bulk when dye molecules form a distinct crystallite structure and inside polyelectrolyte capsules with a diameter up to 8 μm when the precipitate presumably represents a very fine polycrystalline powder. The latter result was further supported by molecular-dynamics simulations carried out for up to 640 dye molecules in the NVT ensemble. Calculations have also shown that effects of confined geometry and steric restrictions arising due to encapsulated polyelectrolyte molecules can not prohibit dye nucleation and subsequent crystallization. However, nonspecific interactions between Disperse Red-1 and encapsulated polyelectrolyte could cause the onset of heterogeneous nucleation resulting in formation of a fine polycrystalline powder. The formation process was directly observed building configuration snapshots and calculating the Gay-Berne orientational order parameter and radial distribution function resolved parallel and perpendicular to the director. Comparison of powder diagrams derived from simulation data indicates that it is nearly impossible to distinguish a fine polycrystalline powder from the isotropic system.

  16. Evaluation of precipitation variability over northern South America based on CMIP5 historical model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vieira, S. C.; Sierra, J. P.; Arias, P. A.

    2014-12-01

    Northern South America is identified as one of the most vulnerable regions to be affected by climate change. Furthermore, recent extreme wet seasons over the region have caused diverse socio-economic consequences. Hence, the evaluation of the representation of local climate of rainfall simulations at intra-annual seasonal and inter-annual time scales by the CMIP5 models is urgently required, in order to identify and analyze projections of regional and local climate under a global climate change scenario. Here, we evaluate the ability of seven of the CMIP5 models (selected based on literature review) to represent the seasonal mean precipitation and its inter-annual variability over northern South America. Our results suggest that it is easier for models to reproduce rainfall distribution during boreal summer and fall over both oceans and land, since during these seasons, not only incoming radiation, but also ocean-atmosphere feedbacks over Atlantic and Pacific oceans, locate the ITCZ on the Northern Hemisphere. Conversely, models exhibit the worse simulations of the seasonal mean precipitation during boreal winter and spring, when these processes have opposite effects locating the ITCZ. Our results suggest that the models with a better representation of the oceanic ITCZ and the local low-level jets over northern South America, such as the Choco low-level jet, are able to realistically simulate the main features of seasonal precipitation pattern over northern South America.

  17. Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the "gray zone"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthlott, C.; Hoose, C.

    2015-06-01

    This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model. Six intensive observation periods of the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) measurement campaign conducted in spring 2013 and one summer day of the same year are simulated. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests (horizontal grid spacing 2.8, 1 km, 500 and 250 m), the applicability of the COSMO model to real weather events in the terra incognita, i. e. the scale ranging between the mesoscale limit (no turbulence resolved) and the large-eddy simulation limit (energy-containing turbulence resolved), is tested. It is found that although the representation of a number of processes is enhanced with resolution (e. g. boundary-layer thermals, low-level convergence zones, gravity waves), their influence on the temporal evolution of precipitation is rather weak. However, rain intensities may vary with resolution, leading to differences in the total rain amount of up to +48 %. Furthermore, the location of rain is similar for the springtime cases with moderate and strong synoptic forcing, whereas significant differences are obtained for the summertime case with air mass convection. Probability density functions of convection-related parameters are analyzed to investigate their dependance on model resolution and their impact on cloud formation and subsequent precipitation.

  18. Simulations of Precipitation Using NRCM and Comparisons with Satellite Observations and CAM: Annual Cycle

    SciTech Connect

    Murthi, Aditya; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2011-04-14

    The accurate representation of rainfall in models of global climate has been a challenging task for climate modelers owing to its small space and time scales. Quantifying this variability is important for comparing simulations of atmospheric behavior with real time observations. In this regard, this paper compares both the statistical and dynamically forced aspects of precipitation variability simulated by the high-resolution (36 km) Nested Regional Climate Model (NRCM), with satellite observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 dataset and simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) at T85 spatial resolution. Six years of rainfall rate data (2000-2005) from within the Tropics (30"S-30"N) have been used in the analysis and results are presented in terms of long-term mean rain rates, amplitude and phase of the annual cycle and seasonal mean maps of precipitation. Our primary focus is on characterizing the annual cycle of rainfall over four land regions of the Tropics namely, the Indian Monsoon, the Amazon, Tropical Africa and the North American monsoon. The lower tropospheric circulation patterns are analyzed in both the observations and the models to identify possible causes for biases in the simulated precipitation. The 6-year mean precipitation simulated by both models show substantial biases throughout the global Tropics with NRCM/CAM systematically underestimating/overestimating rainfall almost everywhere. The seasonal march of rainfall across the equator, following the motion of the sun, is clearly seen in the harmonic vector maps. The timing of peak rainfall (phase) produced by NRCM is in closer agreement with the observations compared to CAM. However like the longtime mean, the magnitude of seasonal mean rainfall is greatly underestimated by NRCM throughout the Tropical land mass. Some of these regional biases can be attributed to erroneous circulation and moisture surpluses/deficits in the lower troposphere in both models

  19. Thermodynamic and mechanical properties of copper precipitates in α-iron from atomistic simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erhart, Paul; Marian, Jaime; Sadigh, Babak

    2013-07-01

    Precipitate hardening is commonly used in materials science to control strength by acting on the number density, size distribution, and shape of solute precipitates in the hardened matrix. The Fe-Cu system has attracted much attention over the last several decades due to its technological importance as a model alloy for Cu steels. In spite of these efforts several aspects of its phase diagram remain unexplained. Here we use atomistic simulations to characterize the polymorphic phase diagram of Cu precipitates in body-centered cubic (BCC) Fe and establish a consistent link between their thermodynamic and mechanical properties in terms of thermal stability, shape, and strength. The size at which Cu precipitates transform from BCC to a close-packed 9R structure is found to be strongly temperature dependent, ranging from approximately 4 nm in diameter (˜2700atoms) at 200 K to about 8 nm (˜22800atoms) at 700 K. These numbers are in very good agreement with the interpretation of experimental data given Monzen [Philos. Mag. APMAADG0141-861010.1080/01418610008212077 80, 711 (2000)]. The strong temperature dependence originates from the entropic stabilization of BCC Cu, which is mechanically unstable as a bulk phase. While at high temperatures the transition exhibits first-order characteristics, the hysteresis, and thus the nucleation barrier, vanish at temperatures below approximately 300 K. This behavior is explained in terms of the mutual cancellation of the energy differences between core and shell (wetting layer) regions of BCC and 9R nanoprecipitates, respectively. The proposed mechanism is not specific for the Fe-Cu system but could generally be observed in immiscible systems, whenever the minority component is unstable in the lattice structure of the host matrix. Finally, we also study the interaction of precipitates with screw dislocations as a function of both structure and orientation. The results provide a coherent picture of precipitate strength that unifies

  20. PDF added value of a high resolution climate simulation for precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.

    2015-04-01

    dynamical downscaling, based on simple PDF skill scores. The measure can assess the full quality of the PDFs and at the same time integrates a flexible manner to weight differently the PDF tails. In this study we apply the referred method to characaterize the PDF added value of a high resolution simulation with the WRF model. Results from a WRF climate simulation centred at the Iberian Penisnula with two nested grids, a larger one at 27km and a smaller one at 9km. This simulation is forced by ERA-Interim. The observational data used covers from rain gauges precipitation records to observational regular grids of daily precipitation. Two regular gridded precipitation datasets are used. A Portuguese grid precipitation dataset developed at 0.2°× 0.2°, from observed rain gauges daily precipitation. A second one corresponding to the ENSEMBLES observational gridded dataset for Europe, which includes daily precipitation values at 0.25°. The analisys shows an important PDF added value from the higher resolution simulation, regarding the full PDF and the extremes. This method shows higher potential to be applied to other simulation exercises and to evaluate other variables.

  1. Representation of topography in spectral climate models and its effect on simulated precipitation

    SciTech Connect

    Lindberg, C.; Broccoli, A.J.

    1996-11-01

    Spectral climate models are distinguished by their representation of variables as finite sums of spherical harmonics, with coefficients computed by an orthogonal projection of the variables onto the spherical harmonics. Representing the surface elevation in this manner results in its contamination by Gibbs-like truncation artifacts, which appear as spurious valleys and mountain chains in the topography. These {open_quotes}Gibbs ripples{close_quotes} are present in the surface topographies of spectral climate models from a number of research institutions. Integrations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model over a range of horizontal resolutions indicate that the Gibbs ripples lead to spurious, small-scale extrema in the spatial distribution of precipitation. This {open_quotes}cellular precipitation pathology{close_quotes} becomes more pronounced with increasing horizontal resolution, causing a deterioration in the fidelity of simulated precipitation in higher resolution models. A method is described for reducing the Gibbs ripples that occur when making an incomplete spherical harmonic expansion of the topography. The new spherical harmonic representations of topography are formed by fitting a nonuniform spherical smoothing spline to geodetic data and found by solving a fixed-point problem. This regularization technique results in less distortion of features such as mountain height and continental boundaries than previous smoothing methods. These new expansions of the topography, when used as a lower boundary surface in the GFDL climate model, substantially diminish the cellular precipitation pathology and produce markedly more realistic simulations of precipitation. These developments make the prospect of using higher resolution spectral models for studies of regional hydrologic climate more attractive. 34 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Observed, reconstructed, and simulated decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zheng, Jingyun; Wu, Maowei; Ge, Quansheng; Hao, Zhixin; Zhang, Xuezhen

    2017-02-01

    Based on observations made during recent decades, reconstructed precipitation for the period A.D. 1736-2000, dry-wet index data for A.D. 500-2000, and a 1000-yr control simulation using the Community Earth System Model with fixed pre-industrial external forcing, the decadal variability of summer precipitation over eastern China is studied. Power spectrum analysis shows that the dominant cycles for the decadal variation of summer precipitation are: 22-24 and quasi-70 yr over the North China Plain; 32-36, 44-48, and quasi-70 yr in the Jiang-Huai area; and 32-36 and 44-48 yr in the Jiang-Nan area. Bandpass decomposition from observation, reconstruction, and simulation reveals that the variability of summer precipitation over the North China Plain, Jiang-Huai area, and Jiang-Nan area, at scales of 20-35, 35-50, and 50-80 yr, is not consistent across the entire millennium. We also find that the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation generally corresponds to dry (wet) conditions over the North China Plain, but wet (dry) conditions in the Jiang-Nan area, from A.D. 1800, when the PDO became strengthened. However, such a correspondence does not exist throughout the entire last millennium. Data-model comparison suggests that these decadal oscillations and their temporal evolution over eastern China, including the decadal shifts in the spatial pattern of the precipitation anomaly observed in the late 1970s, early 1990s, and early 2000s, might result from internal variability of the climate system.

  3. Sensitivity of WRF to boundary layer parameterizations in simulating a heavy rainfall event using different microphysical schemes. Effect on large-scale processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Efstathiou, G. A.; Zoumakis, N. M.; Melas, D.; Lolis, C. J.; Kassomenos, P.

    2013-10-01

    In this study, the sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model rainfall predictions to the choice of two commonly used boundary layer schemes, is examined through the simulation of an exceptionally heavy rainfall event over Chalkidiki peninsula in northern Greece. This major precipitation event, associated with a case of cyclogenesis over the Aegean Sea, occurred on 8 October 2006 affecting northern and central Greece and causing severe flooding and damage in Chalkidiki peninsula. Simulations with the Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) boundary layer parameterizations using three bulk microphysical schemes, showed that MYJ runs had significantly lower predicted rain rates, 24 h accumulations and rain volume regardless of the microphysical scheme used. YSU runs produce more localized areas of intense precipitation especially when they are used in conjunction with the Purdue Lin and WRF Single Moment-6 class microphysics. The general verification results from the comparison of model predictions with available raingauge data over the complex topography of Chalkidiki indicate that configurations using YSU scheme provide better statistical scores for heavy precipitation with ETA microphysics better simulating high precipitation rates and Purdue Lin the 24 h accumulations. It was shown that as a local closure scheme, MYJ produced insufficient vertical mixing confining moisture to lower levels, greatly decreasing condensates and corresponding latent heating that resulted in surface precipitation reduction, compared to YSU runs. Sensitivity tests revealed that condensational heating from the microphysical processes shows a pronounced contribution to the synoptic scale environment by increasing the intensity of larger-scale baroclinicity. Therefore, diabatic heating seems to be one of the most important factors affecting cyclogenesis and controlling the differences in the simulations between the local and non-local BL scheme in this

  4. Global Simulation of Proton Precipitation Due to Field Line Curvature During Substorms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gilson, M. L.; Raeder, J.; Donovan, E.; Ge, Y. S.; Kepko, L.

    2012-01-01

    The low latitude boundary of the proton aurora (known as the Isotropy Boundary or IB) marks an important boundary between empty and full downgoing loss cones. There is significant evidence that the IB maps to a region in the magnetosphere where the ion gyroradius becomes comparable to the local field line curvature. However, the location of the IB in the magnetosphere remains in question. In this paper, we show simulated proton precipitation derived from the Field Line Curvature (FLC) model of proton scattering and a global magnetohydrodynamic simulation during two substorms. The simulated proton precipitation drifts equatorward during the growth phase, intensifies at onset and reproduces the azimuthal splitting published in previous studies. In the simulation, the pre-onset IB maps to 7-8 RE for the substorms presented and the azimuthal splitting is caused by the development of the substorm current wedge. The simulation also demonstrates that the central plasma sheet temperature can significantly influence when and where the azimuthal splitting takes place.

  5. Precipitation frequency analysis based on regional climate simulations in Central Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuo, Chun-Chao; Gan, Thian Yew; Hanrahan, Janel L.

    2014-03-01

    A Regional Climate Model (RCM), MM5 (the Fifth Generation Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model), is used to simulate summer precipitation in Central Alberta. MM5 was set up with a one-way, three-domain nested framework, with domain resolutions of 27, 9, and 3 km, respectively, and forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The objective is to develop high resolution, grid-based Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves based on the simulated annual maximums of precipitation (AMP) data for durations ranging from 15-min to 24-h. The performance of MM5 was assessed in terms of simulated rainfall intensity, precipitable water, and 2-m air temperature. Next, the grid-based IDF curves derived from MM5 were compared to IDF curves derived from six RCMs of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) set up with 50-km grids, driven with NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy) Reanalysis II data, and regional IDF curves derived from observed rain gauge data (RG-IDF). The analyzed results indicate that 6-h simulated precipitable water and 2-m temperature agree well with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data. However, compared to RG-IDF curves, IDF curves based on simulated precipitation data of MM5 are overestimated especially for IDF curves of 2-year return period. In contract, IDF curves developed from NARCCAP data suffer from under-estimation and differ more from RG-IDF curves than the MM5 IDF curves. The over-estimation of IDF curves of MM5 was corrected by a quantile-based, bias correction method. By dynamically downscale the ERA-Interim and after bias correction, it is possible to develop IDF curves useful for regions with limited or no rain gauge data. This estimation process can be further extended to predict future grid-based IDF curves subjected to possible climate change impacts based on climate

  6. Evaluation of precipitation and temperature simulation performance of the CMIP3 and CMIP5 historical experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koutroulis, A. G.; Grillakis, M. G.; Tsanis, I. K.; Papadimitriou, L.

    2016-09-01

    The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is the most recent coordinated experiment of global climate modeling. Compared to its predecessor CMIP3, the fifth phase of the homonymous experiment—CMIP5 involves a greater number of GCMs, run at higher resolutions with more complex components. Here we use daily GCM data from both projects to test their efficiency in representing precipitation and temperature parameters with the use of a state of the art high resolution gridded global dataset for land areas and for the period 1960-2005. Two simple metrics, a comprehensive histogram similarity metric based on the match of simulated and observed empirical pdfs and a metric for the representation of the annual cycle were employed as performance indicators. The metrics were used to assess the skill of each GCM at the entire spectrum of precipitation and temperature pdfs but also for the upper and lower tails of it. Results are presented globally and regionally for 26 land regions that represent different climatic regimes, covering the total earth's land surface except for Antarctica. Compared to CMIP3, CMIP5 models perform better in simulating precipitation including relatively intense events and the fraction of wet days. For temperature the improvement is not as clear except for the upper and lower hot and cold events of the distribution. The agreement of model simulations is also considerably increased in CMIP5. Substantial improvement in intense precipitation is observed over North Europe, Central and Eastern North America and North East Europe. Nevertheless, in both ensembles some models clearly perform better than others from a histogram similarity point of view. The derived skill score metrics provide essential information for impact studies based on global or regional land area multi-model ensembles.

  7. A Self-Consistent Radiative Transfer Model for Simulating Active and Passive Observations of Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, I. S.

    2015-12-01

    Current generation sensors suites such as those included on the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, Aquarius, and Soil Moisture Active / Passive (SMAP) exploit a combination to provide a greater understanding of geophysical phenomena. While "operationalized" retrieval algorithms require fast forward models, the ability to perform higher fidelity simulations is necessary for understanding the physics of remote sensing problems to test assumptions and to develop parameterizations for the fast models. To ensure proper synergy between active and passive modeling, forward models must be consistent between the two sensor types. This work presents a self-consistent active and passive radiative transfer model for simulating radar and radiometer responses to precipitation. To accomplish this, we extend the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) version 2.3 to solve the radiative transfer equation for radar under multiple scattering conditions using Monte Carlo integration. Early versions of ARTS (1.1 and later) included a passive Monte Carlo solver, and ARTS is capable of handling atmospheres of up to three dimensions with ellipsoidal planetary geometries. The modular nature of ARTS facilitates extensibility, and the well-developed ray-tracing tools are suited for implementation of Monte Carlo algorithms. Finally, since ARTS handles the full Stokes vector, co- and cross-polarized reflectivity products are possible for scenarios that include nonspherical particles, with or without preferential alignment. The accuracy of the forward model will be demonstrated, and the effects of multiple scattering will be detailed. The three-dimensional nature of the radiative transfer model will be useful for understanding the effects of nonuniform beamfill and multiple scattering for spatially heterogeneous precipitation events. This targets of this forward model are GPM (the Dual-wavelength Precipitation Radar (DPR) and GPM Microwave Imager (GMI)) and airborne sensors

  8. Using High-Resolution Satellite Observations for Evaluation of Cloud and Precipitation Statistics from Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations. Part I: South China Sea Monsoon Experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Hou, A.; Lau, W. K.; Shie, C.; Tao, W.; Lin, X.; Chou, M.; Olson, W. S.; Grecu, M.

    2006-05-01

    The cloud and precipitation statistics simulated by 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) TMI and PR rainfall measurements and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) single scanner footprint (SSF) radiation and cloud retrievals. It is found that GCE is capable of simulating major convective system development and reproducing total surface rainfall amount as compared with rainfall estimated from the soundings. Mesoscale organization is adequately simulated except when environmental wind shear is very weak. The partitions between convective and stratiform rain are also close to TMI and PR classification. However, the model simulated rain spectrum is quite different from either TMI or PR measurements. The model produces more heavy rains and light rains (less than 0.1 mm/hr) than the observations. The model also produces heavier vertical hydrometer profiles of rain, graupel when compared with TMI retrievals and PR radar reflectivity. Comparing GCE simulated OLR and cloud properties with CERES measurements found that the model has much larger domain averaged OLR due to smaller total cloud fraction and a much skewed distribution of OLR and cloud top than CERES observations, indicating that the model's cloud field is not wide spread, consistent with the model's precipitation activity. These results will be used as guidance for improving the model's microphysics.

  9. Sustained Water Changes in California during Drought and Heavy Precipitation Inferred from GPS, InSAR, and GRACE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Argus, D. F.; Fu, Y.; Landerer, F. W.; Wiese, D. N.; Farr, T. G.; Liu, Z.; Thomas, B. F.; Famiglietti, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    About 1200 GPS sites in the westernmost United States are used to weigh changes in surface water as a function of location from 2006 to 2015. The effect of known changes in water in artificial reservoirs is removed, allowing changes in the total of snow, soil moisture, and mountain fracture groundwater to be inferred from GPS. In this study water changes inferred from GPS are placed into the context of complementary InSAR and GRACE data. The southern Central Valley (the San Joaquin Valley and Tulare Basin) is subsiding at spectacular rates of 0.01 m/yr to 0.2 m/yr in response to groundwater management. We construct an elastic model of groundwater change of the southern Central Valley, using GRACE as the basis of total groundwater loss and InSAR to infer the lateral distribution of that groundwater loss. This elastic model of Central Valley groundwater loss is removed from the GPS displacements. Because snow in California is insignificant in October, and because changes in soil moisture between successive autumns are small, we can infer changes in Sierra Nevada mountain fracture groundwater to be: -19 km3 during drought from 2006 to 2009, +35 km3 during heavy precipitation from 2009 to 2011, and -38 km3 during drought from 2011 to 2014 (start and end times are all in October). We infer changes in Sierra Nevada mountain groundwater to be playing an important role in modulating Central Valley groundwater loss. Total water in the Sierra Nevada recovered by 16 km3 from October 2014 to April 2015, but water is being lost again in summer 2015.

  10. The impact of simulated mesoscale convective systems on global precipitation: A multiscale modeling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiun-Dar

    2017-06-01

    The importance of precipitating mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) has been quantified from TRMM precipitation radar and microwave imager retrievals. MCSs generate more than 50% of the rainfall in most tropical regions. MCSs usually have horizontal scales of a few hundred kilometers (km); therefore, a large domain with several hundred km is required for realistic simulations of MCSs in cloud-resolving models (CRMs). Almost all traditional global and climate models do not have adequate parameterizations to represent MCSs. Typical multiscale modeling frameworks (MMFs) may also lack the resolution (4 km grid spacing) and domain size (128 km) to realistically simulate MCSs. The impact of MCSs on precipitation is examined by conducting model simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE, a CRM) model and Goddard MMF that uses the GCEs as its embedded CRMs. Both models can realistically simulate MCSs with more grid points (i.e., 128 and 256) and higher resolutions (1 or 2 km) compared to those simulations with fewer grid points (i.e., 32 and 64) and low resolution (4 km). The modeling results also show the strengths of the Hadley circulations, mean zonal and regional vertical velocities, surface evaporation, and amount of surface rainfall are weaker or reduced in the Goddard MMF when using more CRM grid points and higher CRM resolution. In addition, the results indicate that large-scale surface evaporation and wind feedback are key processes for determining the surface rainfall amount in the GMMF. A sensitivity test with reduced sea surface temperatures shows both reduced surface rainfall and evaporation.

  11. Spatial and temporal variability of clouds and precipitation over Germany: multiscale simulations across the "gray zone"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barthlott, C.; Hoose, C.

    2015-11-01

    This paper assesses the resolution dependance of clouds and precipitation over Germany by numerical simulations with the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling (COSMO) model. Six intensive observation periods of the HOPE (HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment) measurement campaign conducted in spring 2013 and 1 summer day of the same year are simulated. By means of a series of grid-refinement resolution tests (horizontal grid spacing 2.8, 1 km, 500, and 250 m), the applicability of the COSMO model to represent real weather events in the gray zone, i.e., the scale ranging between the mesoscale limit (no turbulence resolved) and the large-eddy simulation limit (energy-containing turbulence resolved), is tested. To the authors' knowledge, this paper presents the first non-idealized COSMO simulations in the peer-reviewed literature at the 250-500 m scale. It is found that the kinetic energy spectra derived from model output show the expected -5/3 slope, as well as a dependency on model resolution, and that the effective resolution lies between 6 and 7 times the nominal resolution. Although the representation of a number of processes is enhanced with resolution (e.g., boundary-layer thermals, low-level convergence zones, gravity waves), their influence on the temporal evolution of precipitation is rather weak. However, rain intensities vary with resolution, leading to differences in the total rain amount of up to +48 %. Furthermore, the location of rain is similar for the springtime cases with moderate and strong synoptic forcing, whereas significant differences are obtained for the summertime case with air mass convection. Domain-averaged liquid water paths and cloud condensate profiles are used to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the simulated clouds. Finally, probability density functions of convection-related parameters are analyzed to investigate their dependance on model resolution and their impact on cloud formation and subsequent precipitation.

  12. Simulated impacts of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on summer precipitation at the Guinea Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nnamchi, Hyacinth C.; Li, Jianping; Kang, In-Sik; Kucharski, Fred

    2013-08-01

    An intermediate complexity atmospheric general circulation model has been used to investigate the influence of the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) on summer precipitation over the Guinea Coast of West Africa. Two ensemble integrations in which idealized but realistic SAOD-type sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is prescribed only in the SAO, and then globally are performed and inter-compared. Consistently, above (below) the average precipitation is simulated over the Guinea Coast during the positive (negative) phase of the SAOD. Comparison of the two set of experiments reveal that in its active years, the SAOD is a dominant mechanism that shapes the spatial character of summer precipitation at the Guinea coast, the global SST variability merely slightly moderate its effects. During the SAOD, cool SST anomaly in the extra-tropical SAO off the Brazil-Uruguay-Argentina coast gives rise to suppressed convection and mass divergence. In turn, the subsidence tends to amplify the sub-tropical arm of anomalous Hadley-type circulation and consequently large scale convection and mass flux convergence in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean/Gulf of Guinea region bordering on the coastal fringes of West Africa. Precipitation is therefore increased at the Guinea Coast.

  13. Temperature and precipitation extremes in century-long gridded observations, reanalyses, and atmospheric model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donat, Markus G.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Herold, Nicholas; Dittus, Andrea J.

    2016-10-01

    Knowledge about long-term changes in climate extremes is vital to better understand multidecadal climate variability and long-term changes and to place today's extreme events in a historical context. While global changes in temperature and precipitation extremes since the midtwentieth century are well studied, knowledge about century-scale changes is limited. This paper analyses a range of largely independent observations-based data sets covering 1901-2010 for long-term changes and interannual variability in daily scale temperature and precipitation extremes. We compare across data sets for consistency to ascertain our confidence in century-scale changes in extremes. We find consistent warming trends in temperature extremes globally and in most land areas over the past century. For precipitation extremes we find global tendencies toward more intense rainfall throughout much of the twentieth century; however, local changes are spatially more variable. While global time series of the different data sets agree well after about 1950, they often show different changes during the first half of the twentieth century. In regions with good observational coverage, gridded observations and reanalyses agree well throughout the entire past century. Simulations with an atmospheric model suggest that ocean temperatures and sea ice may explain up to about 50% of interannual variability in the global average of temperature extremes, and about 15% in the global average of moderate precipitation extremes, but local correlations are mostly significant only in low latitudes.

  14. Thermodynamic modeling and kinetics simulation of precipitate phases in AISI 316 stainless steels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Y.; Busby, J. T.

    2014-05-01

    This work aims at utilizing modern computational microstructural modeling tools to accelerate the understanding of phase stability in austenitic steels under extended thermal aging. Using the CALPHAD approach, a thermodynamic database OCTANT (ORNL Computational Thermodynamics for Applied Nuclear Technology), including elements of Fe, C, Cr, Ni, Mn, Mo, Si, and Ti, has been developed with a focus on reliable thermodynamic modeling of precipitate phases in AISI 316 austenitic stainless steels. The thermodynamic database was validated by comparing the calculated results with experimental data from commercial 316 austenitic steels. The developed computational thermodynamics was then coupled with precipitation kinetics simulation to understand the temporal evolution of precipitates in austenitic steels under long-term thermal aging (up to 600,000 h) at a temperature regime from 300 to 900 °C. This study discusses the effect of dislocation density and difusion coefficients on the precipitation kinetics at low temperatures, which shed a light on investigating the phase stability and transformation in austenitic steels used in light water reactors.

  15. Hydrologic Simulations in Complex Terrain Conditioned on Different Precipitation Inputs During IPHEx

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anagnostou, E. N.; Erlingis, J. M.; Vergara, H. J.; Gourley, J. J.

    2014-12-01

    An Intensive Observation Period for the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), part of NASA's Ground Validation campaign for the newly launched Global Precipitation Measurement Mission took place from May-June 2014 in the Smoky Mountains of western North Carolina. As part of the experiment, the National Severe Storms Laboratory's (NSSL) mobile dual-pol X-band radar, NOXP, was deployed in the Pigeon River Basin (PRB). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the performance of different post-processing algorithms of NOXP data with the suite of observation platforms within the IPHEx domain. In addition, the impact of standard precipitation datasets (Stage IV gauge-corrected radar estimates, Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Quantitative Precipitation Estimates, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42V7 rainfall, CMORPH, WRF, etc.) on the performance of the CREST hydrologic model at small basin scales in complex terrain will be examined. Hydrologic simulations using a version of CREST with a priori parameters were conducted in the three small catchments within the PRB previously studied by Tao and Barros (2013): the Cataloochee Creek Basin, the East Fork Pigeon River Basin, and the West Fork Pigeon River Basin.

  16. Calcite precipitation dominates the electrical signatures of zero valent iron columns under simulated field conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Wu, Yuxin; Versteeg, R.; Slater, L.; LaBrecque, D.

    2009-06-01

    Calcium carbonate is a secondary mineral precipitate influencing zero valent iron (ZVI) barrier reactivity and hydraulic performance. We conducted column experiments to investigate electrical signatures resulting from concurrent CaCO{sub 3} and iron oxides precipitation under simulated field geochemical conditions. We identified CaCO{sub 3} as a major mineral phase throughout the columns, with magnetite present primarily close to the influent based on XRD analysis. Electrical measurements revealed decreases in conductivity and polarization of both columns, suggesting that electrically insulating CaCO{sub 3} dominates the electrical response despite the presence of electrically conductive iron oxides. SEM/EDX imaging suggests that the electrical signal reflects the geometrical arrangement of the mineral phases. CaCO{sub 3} forms insulating films on ZVI/magnetite surfaces, restricting charge transfer between the pore electrolyte and ZVI particles, as well as across interconnected ZVI particles. As surface reactivity also depends on the ability of the surface to engage in redox reactions via charge transfer, electrical measurements may provide a minimally invasive technology for monitoring reactivity loss due to CaCO{sub 3} precipitation. Comparison between laboratory and field data shows consistent changes in electrical signatures due to iron corrosion and secondary mineral precipitation.

  17. Calcite precipitation dominates the electrical signatures of zero valent iron columns under simulated field conditions.

    PubMed

    Wu, Yuxin; Versteeg, Roelof; Slater, Lee; LaBrecque, Douglas

    2009-05-12

    Calcium carbonate is a secondary mineral precipitate influencing zero valent iron (ZVI) barrier reactivity and hydraulic performance. We conducted column experiments to investigate electrical signatures resulting from concurrent CaCO(3) and iron oxides precipitation under simulated field geochemical conditions. We identified CaCO(3) as a major mineral phase throughout the columns, with magnetite present primarily close to the influent based on XRD analysis. Electrical measurements revealed decreases in conductivity and polarization of both columns, suggesting that electrically insulating CaCO(3) dominates the electrical response despite the presence of electrically conductive iron oxides. SEM/EDX imaging suggests that the electrical signal reflects the geometrical arrangement of the mineral phases. CaCO(3) forms insulating films on ZVI/magnetite surfaces, restricting charge transfer between the pore electrolyte and ZVI particles, as well as across interconnected ZVI particles. As surface reactivity also depends on the ability of the surface to engage in redox reactions via charge transfer, electrical measurements may provide a minimally invasive technology for monitoring reactivity loss due to CaCO(3) precipitation. Comparison between laboratory and field data shows consistent changes in electrical signatures due to iron corrosion and secondary mineral precipitation.

  18. Temperature and Precipitation Scaling in CMIP5 Simulations and Paleoclimate Records of the Last Millennium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parsons, L. A.; Loope, G. R.; Ault, T.; Overpeck, J. T.; Cole, J. E.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    Accurate assessments of future climate impacts require realistic simulation of decadal to centennial-scale temperature and precipitation variability, yet there is no clear consensus regarding the global nature of this variability across these timescales. We compare the magnitude and spatial consistency of surface temperature and precipitation variance distributions in the latest generation of Earth system models. We find that modeled temperature variance generally increases with timescale in patterns that are consistent across space, especially over most of the mid- and high-latitude oceans. However, there is little spatial agreement in precipitation scaling, even between different runs of the same model. Unforced temperature and precipitation scaling in Earth system models is difficult to distinguish from scaling generated by a simple autocorrelated process, but the magnitude of paleoclimate temperature reconstruction scaling falls well outside an autocorrelated process. Paleoclimate records of the last millennium indicate that Earth system models likely overestimate interannual variability and underestimate multi-decadal to centennial-scale climate variability, especially in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

  19. Evaluation of WRF microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes in simulating a heavy rainfall event over Yangtze River delta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kan, Yu; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yanan; Zhou, Cong

    2015-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) version 3.5 has been used in this study to simulate a heavy rainfall event during the Meiyu season that occurred between 1 and 2 July 2014 over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) in China. The WRF model is driven by the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Final (FNL) global tropospheric analysis data, and eight WRF nested experiments using four different microphysics (MP) schemes and two cumulus parameterizations (CP) are conducted to evaluate the effects of these microphysics and cumulus schemes on heavy rainfall predictions over YRV region. The four MPs selected in this study are Lin et al., WRF Single-Moment 3-class scheme (WSM3), WRF Single-Moment 5-class scheme (WSM5) and WRF Single-Moment 6-class scheme (WSM6), and the two CPs are Kain-Fristch (KF) and Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) schemes. Sensitivity studies showed that all MPs coupling with KF and BMJ CP schemes can well capture the major rain belt from the northeast to southwest with three rainfall centers, but largely overestimate the rainfall near the border between Anhui and Hubei provinces along with the Yellow Sea shore, which produce an opposite trend compared to the observations. Large discrepancies are also presented in WRF simulations of heavy rainfall centers regarding their locations and magnitudes. All MPs coupling with KF CP scheme produced the rainfall areas shifting towards east compared to the observations, while all MPs with BMJ CP scheme tend to better predict the rainfall patterns with slightly more fake precipitation centers. Among all the experiments, the BMJ cumulus scheme has superiority in simulating the Meiyu rainfall over the KF scheme, and the WSM5-BMJ combination shows the best predictive skills.

  20. Simulations of precipitation using the Community Earth System Model (CESM): Sensitivity to microphysics time step

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murthi, A.; Menon, S.; Sednev, I.

    2011-12-01

    An inherent difficulty in the ability of global climate models to accurately simulate precipitation lies in the use of a large time step, Δt (usually 30 minutes), to solve the governing equations. Since microphysical processes are characterized by small time scales compared to Δt, finite difference approximations used to advance microphysics equations suffer from numerical instability and large time truncation errors. With this in mind, the sensitivity of precipitation simulated by the atmospheric component of CESM, namely the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM 5.1), to the microphysics time step (τ) is investigated. Model integrations are carried out for a period of five years with a spin up time of about six months for a horizontal resolution of 2.5 × 1.9 degrees and 30 levels in the vertical, with Δt = 1800 s. The control simulation with τ = 900 s is compared with one using τ = 300 s for accumulated precipitation and radi- ation budgets at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA), while keeping Δt fixed. Our choice of τ = 300 s is motivated by previous work on warm rain processes wherein it was shown that a value of τ around 300 s was necessary, but not sufficient, to ensure positive definiteness and numerical stability of the explicit time integration scheme used to integrate the microphysical equations. However, since the entire suite of microphysical processes are represented in our case, we suspect that this might impose additional restrictions on τ. The τ = 300 s case produces differences in large-scale accumulated rainfall from the τ = 900 s case by as large as 200 mm, over certain regions of the globe. The spatial patterns of total accumulated precipitation using τ = 300 s are in closer agreement with satellite observed precipitation, when compared to the τ = 900 s case. Differences are also seen in the radiation budget with the τ = 300 (900) s cases producing surpluses that range between 1-3 W/m2 at both the TOA and surface in the global

  1. Evaluating Frontal Precipitation with a Spectral Microphysics Mesoscale Model and a Satellite Simulator as Compared to Radar and Radiometer Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, M.; Braun, S. A.; Matsui, T.; Iguchi, T.; Williams, C. R.

    2013-12-01

    The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) onboard NASA Aqua satellite and a ground-based precipitation profiling radar sampled a frontal precipitation event in the US west coast on 30 to 31 December 2005. Simulations with bulk microphysics schemes in the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model have been evaluated with those remote sensing data. In the current study, we continue similar work to evaluate a spectral bin microphysics (SBM) scheme, HUCM, in the WRF model. The Goddard-Satellite Data Simulation Unit (G-SDSU) is used to simulate quantities observed by the radar and radiometer. With advanced representation of cloud and precipitation microphysics processes, the HUCM scheme predicts distributions of 7 hydrometeor species as storms evolve. In this study, the simulation with HUCM well captured the structure of the precipitation and its microphysics characteristics. In addition, it improved total precipitation ice mass simulation and corrected, to a certain extent, the large low bias of ice scattering signature in the bulk scheme simulations. However, the radar reflectivity simulations with the HUCM scheme were not improved as compared to the bulk schemes. We conducted investigations to understand how microphysical processes and properties, such as snow break up parameter and particle fall velocities would influence precipitation size distribution and spectrum of water paths, and further modify radar and/or radiometer simulations. Influence by ice nuclei is going to be examined as well.

  2. Relationship between monsoon precipitation and low pressure systems in climate model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Veluthedathekuzhiyil, Praveen; Sandeep, S.; Ajayamohan R., S.

    2015-04-01

    The north north-west propagating Low Pressure Systems (LPS) play an important role in bringing rainfall in to the interior parts of Indian subcontinent. The detection and tracking of these weak systems are challenging compared to the tropical and extra tropical cyclones. An objective detection and tracking algorithm of LPS is developed and tested on reanalysis products and climate model simulations. This novel method mimics the conventional identification of tracking algorithm based on the detection of closed isobars on surface pressure charts. A fair comparison between the LPS detected using the algorithm and observations obtained from daily weather charts (Sikka, 2006) is obtained. The algorithm is further applied on historical CMIP5 simulations. About 60% of the observed total summer monsoon precipitation over east-central India is found to be associated with LPS activities, while that in model simulations this ratio varies between 5 - 60%. The analysis found that the models with realistic LPS activity were able to produce a reasonable mean seasonal monsoon precipitation. The skill of simulating a better LPS activity is found to be linked to the representation of Tropical Easterly Jet in these models.

  3. A study of cloud microphysics and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau by radar observations and cloud-resolving model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Wenhua; Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Fan, Jiwen; Hu, Zhiqun; Zhong, Lingzhi

    2016-11-01

    Cloud microphysical properties and precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau are unique because of the high terrains, clean atmosphere, and sufficient water vapor. With dual-polarization precipitation radar and cloud radar measurements during the Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Scientific Experiment, the simulated microphysics and precipitation by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) microphysics and other microphysical schemes are investigated through a typical plateau rainfall event on 22 July 2014. Results show that the WRF-CAMS simulation reasonably reproduces the spatial distribution of 24 h accumulated precipitation but has limitations in simulating time evolution of precipitation rates. The model-calculated polarimetric radar variables have biases as well, suggesting bias in modeled hydrometeor types. The raindrop sizes in convective region are larger than those in stratiform region indicated by the small intercept of raindrop size distribution in the former. In addition, the warm rain processes generate heavier precipitation than the cold rain processes do over the rainfall centers during weak convection period. The sensitivity of precipitation to perturbing the warm rain microphysical processes show that doubling droplet condensation increases precipitation significantly and produces the best area-averaged rain rate, suggesting biases in thermodynamics in the baseline simulation. Halving raindrop evaporation results in an increase in weak rainfall areas along with a warmer subcloud layer. Increasing the initial cloud droplet size causes the rain rate reduced by half, an opposite effect to that of increasing droplet condensation.

  4. Numerical simulation of the impact of Anatolian and Caucasus Mountains on the precipitation distribution over the Black Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghafarian, P.; Azadi, M.; Meshkatee, A. H.; Farahani, M. M.

    2012-03-01

    An attempt is made to examine the role of Anatolian and Caucasus mountain ranges in the precipitation distribution over the Black Sea region and to clarify the dynamical and physical mechanisms responsible for precipitation distribution over the region. Existence of a complex topography in the southern and eastern part of the Black Sea region makes it an important region for cyclogenesis. In this study the effect of Anatolian and Caucasus Mountains on the precipitating synoptic systems forming over the Black Sea are investigated. To this end, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 15-km horizontal grid spacing has been used to evaluate the lifetime of a low pressure system that was accompanied with heavy precipitation on 14 March 2009 over the coastal region of the Black Sea. Two experiments were conducted. In the control experiment (CTL), the topographical features of the region were retained. In the sensitivity experiment (EXP), the Anatolian and Caucasus mountain ranges were removed. It is found that in the EXP, some fields including vertical motion, relative vorticity, humidity, geopotential height in low level, cloud water content and precipitation distribution in the region undergo significant changes. As such, in the EXP, the vorticity, and the cut-off low system over the Black Sea intensified. It is also seen that, under favorable conditions for precipitation occurrence, the precipitation intensity in the south and east coasts of the Black Sea decreased and the region of maximum precipitation shifted toward the "Sea of Azov" region, in the direction of the surface southerly winds.

  5. Ion-cyclotron wave heating of heavy ions in the equatorial magnetosphere - A numerical simulation theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, M. W.; Hada, T.; Ashour-Abdalla, M.

    A 1-2/2 dimensional hybrid numerical simulation code is used to study the heating of cold H(+) ions and heavy ions by electromagnetic ion-cyclotron waves (ICWs) in the ring current region of the equatorial magnetosphere. Consideration is given to a plasma consisting of electrons, hot H(+) ions, and cold heavy ions in which the ICWs are driven by the temperature anisotropy of the hot protons. For large-amplitude ICWs, it is found that the cold H(+) ions are preferentially heated over the heavy ions although the cold H(+) ions are heated by a three-step process.

  6. Wind induced errors on solid precipitation measurements: an evaluation using time-dependent turbulence simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colli, Matteo; Lanza, Luca Giovanni; Rasmussen, Roy; Mireille Thériault, Julie

    2014-05-01

    Among the different environmental sources of error for ground based solid precipitation measurements, wind is the main responsible for a large reduction of the catching performance. This is due to the aero-dynamic response of the gauge that affects the originally undisturbed airflow causing the deformation of the snowflakes trajectories. The application of composite gauge/wind shield measuring configurations allows the improvements of the collection efficiency (CE) at low wind speeds (Uw) but the performance achievable under severe airflow velocities and the role of turbulence still have to be explained. This work is aimed to assess the wind induced errors of a Geonor T200B vibrating wires gauge equipped with a single Alter shield. This is a common measuring system for solid precipitation, which constitutes of the R3 reference system in the ongoing WMO Solid Precipitation InterComparison Experiment (SPICE). The analysis is carried out by adopting advanced Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools for the numerical simulation of the turbulent airflow realized in the proximity of the catching section of the gauge. The airflow patterns were computed by running both time-dependent (Large Eddies Simulation) and time-independent (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) simulations. on the Yellowstone high performance computing system of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The evaluation of CE under different Uw conditions was obtained by running a Lagrangian model for the calculation of the snowflakes trajectories building on the simulated airflow patterns. Particular attention has been paid to the sensitivity of the trajectories to different snow particles sizes and water content (corresponding to dry and wet snow). The results will be illustrated in comparative form between the different methodologies adopted and the existing infield CE evaluations based on double shield reference gauges.

  7. Identifying early stage precipitation in large-scale atomistic simulations of superalloys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Eric; Bristowe, Paul D.

    2017-04-01

    A method for identifying and classifying ordered phases in large chemically and thermally disordered atomistic models is presented. The method uses Steinhardt parameters to represent local atomic configurations and develops probability density functions to classify individual atoms using naïve Bayes. The method is applied to large molecular dynamics simulations of supersaturated Ni-20 at% Al solid solutions in order to identify the formation of embryonic γ‧-Ni3Al. The composition and temperatures are chosen to promote precipitation, which is observed in the form of ordering and is found to occur more likely in regions with above average Al concentration producing ‘clusters’ of increasing size. The results are interpreted in terms of a precipitation mechanism in which the solid solution is unstable with respect to ordering and potentially followed by either spinodal decomposition or nucleation and growth.

  8. Numerical simulation of precipitation over the Southwestern United States during the 1994-1995 winter season

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, J.

    1995-09-28

    Accurate assessments of precipitation and surface snow budget during winter seasons are crucial for managing water resources in the western United States. This region receives most of its annual precipitation during winter months and relies on water stored in snowpack and reservoirs for water supply during dry summer seasons. Rainfall directly affects water inflow into reservoirs while snowmelt determines it during spring and summer. Precipitation and snow budget result from interactions among large-scale forcing, mesoscale processes, and surface energy balance. Interaction among these elements is highly nonlinear and includes various processes such as large-scale water vapor and temperature advection, precipitation physics, orographic forcing, turbulence, solar and terrestrial radiative transfer, and snow-albedo feedback. Hence, one need to take these processes into consideration in order to obtain accurate assessments of regional water resources over time scales longer than a season. A regional model that interactively couples atmospheric and land surface processes is a cost-effective tool for an assessment of precipitation and surface hydrology over large areas at a relatively fine resolution. Such models can include complex physical and dynamical processes involved in the interaction between the atmosphere and land surfaces. Another advantage of coupled atmosphere-land surface modeling is that simulations, when verified against local observations, can provide area-integrated values. Area-integrated values are useful for computing overall budgets, but they are somewhat difficult to obtain directly from local observations. Hence, a coupled atmosphere-surface model is especially useful for computing area-weighted values for areas of interest.

  9. Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McMahon, T. A.; Peel, M. C.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate models (GCMs) that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature for input to hydrologic simulation over global land regions. Current assessments are aimed mainly at examining the performance of GCMs from a climatology perspective and not from a hydrology standpoint. The performance of each GCM in reproducing the precipitation and temperature statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) 3.10 gridded data set and re-sampled to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM-based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen-Geiger climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and root mean square error (RMSE) between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following better performing GCMs from a hydrologic perspective: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCm (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute). The future response of these GCMs was found to be representative of the 44 GCM ensemble members which confirms that the selected GCMs are reasonably

  10. Precipitation Evaluation in the Central Peruvian Andes Using Radar Data and WRF Simulations.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silva, Y.; Scipion, D.; Moya, A.; Valdivia, J.; Villalobos, E.

    2016-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the case of study of stratiform and convective precipitation that occurred in the Observatory of Huancayo (3300 m.a.s.l.) on December 29th, 2015. The analyses were done using a Ka-band cloud-precipitation radar, a boundary layer tropospheric radar, an optical disdrometer, rain gauges, as well as other conventional instruments. We complemented the analysis using WRF with 4 domains: 18, 6, 2, and 0.6 km spatial resolution with Grell - Freitas and Kain - Fritz (Multi - Scale) cumulus parameterizations for all domains, and also settings these parameterizations only for the 18 and 6 km domains. Preliminary results show that stratiform rain occurred during early hours on Dec. 29 while at about 4pm local time there were convective rains with hail, lasted approximately 30 min. The clouds in stratiform rain did not exceed 6 km high above the surface; while for convective rain, the clouds reached up to 13 km a.s.l. The wind analysis from the BLTR indicate high turbulence before the rain event, this turbulence is better represented for stratiform rain, since for convective rains the signal is attenuated, this issue is still being studied. The 24 hours simulation shows that the WRF adequately reproduces the rainy event 29th, the convective precipitation was formed at Northwest of the Observatory at 21UTC and spreads into the valley. There are no major differences in precipitation between 2 and 0.6 km domains; however, the 0.6km domain has higher humidity in low levels and the modeled precipitation starts two hours earlier than observed.

  11. Simulating Future Changes in Spatio-temporal Precipitation by Identifying and Characterizing Individual Rainstorm Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, W.; Stein, M.; Wang, J.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Moyer, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A growing body of literature suggests that human-induced climate change may cause significant changes in precipitation patterns, which could in turn influence future flood levels and frequencies and water supply and management practices. Although climate models produce full three-dimensional simulations of precipitation, analyses of model precipitation have focused either on time-averaged distributions or on individual timeseries with no spatial information. We describe here a new approach based on identifying and characterizing individual rainstorms in either data or model output. Our approach enables us to readily characterize important spatio-temporal aspects of rainstorms including initiation location, intensity (mean and patterns), spatial extent, duration, and trajectory. We apply this technique to high-resolution precipitation over the continental U.S. both from radar-based observations (NCEP Stage IV QPE product, 1-hourly, 4 km spatial resolution) and from model runs with dynamical downscaling (WRF regional climate model, 3-hourly, 12 km spatial resolution). In the model studies we investigate the changes in storm characteristics under a business-as-usual warming scenario to 2100 (RCP 8.5). We find that in these model runs, rainstorm intensity increases as expected with rising temperatures (approximately 7%/K, following increased atmospheric moisture content), while total precipitation increases by a lesser amount (3%/K), consistent with other studies. We identify for the first time the necessary compensating mechanism: in these model runs, individual precipitation events become smaller. Other aspects are approximately unchanged in the warmer climate. Because these spatio-temporal changes in rainfall patterns would impact regional hydrology, it is important that they be accurately incorporated into any impacts assessment. For this purpose we have developed a methodology for producing scenarios of future precipitation that combine observational data and

  12. Temporal development of extreme precipitation in Germany projected by EURO-CORDEX simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brendel, Christoph; Deutschländer, Thomas

    2017-04-01

    A sustainable operation of transport infrastructure requires an enhanced resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change and related extreme meteorological events. To meet this challenge, the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI) commenced a comprehensive national research program on safe and sustainable transport in Germany. A network of departmental research institutes addresses the "Adaptation of the German transport infrastructure towards climate change and extreme events". Various studies already have identified an increase in the average global precipitation for the 20th century. There is some indication that these increases are most visible in a rising frequency of precipitation extremes. However, the changes are highly variable between regions and seasons. With a further increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, the likelihood of occurrence of such extreme events will continue to rise. A kernel estimator has been used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the temporal development of extreme precipitation events projected by an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX simulations. The kernel estimator measures the intensity of the poisson point process indicating temporal changes in the frequency of extreme events. Extreme precipitation events were selected using the peaks over threshold (POT) method with the 90th, 95th and 99th quantile of daily precipitation sums as thresholds. Application of this non-parametric approach with relative thresholds renders the use of a bias correction non-mandatory. In addition, in comparison to fitting an extreme value theory (EVT) distribution, the method is completely unsusceptible to outliers. First results show an overall increase of extreme precipitation events for Germany until the end of the 21st century. However, major differences between seasons, quantiles and the three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) have been

  13. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2014-09-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  14. The role of regional climate model setup in simulating two extreme precipitation events in the European Alpine region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Awan, Nauman Khurshid; Gobiet, Andreas; Suklitsch, Martin

    2015-01-01

    In this study we have investigated the role of domain settings and model's physics in simulating two extreme precipitation events. Four regional climate models, all driven with a re-analysis dataset were used to create an ensemble of 61 high-resolution simulations by varying physical parameterization schemes, domain sizes, nudging and nesting techniques. The two discussed events are three-day time slices taken from approximately 15-months long climate simulations. The results show that dynamical downscaling significantly improves the spatial characteristics such as correlation, variability as well as location and intensity of maximum precipitation. Spatial variability, which is underestimated by most of the simulations can be improved by choosing suitable vertical resolution, convective and microphysics scheme. The results further suggest that for studies focusing on extreme precipitation events relatively small domains or nudging could be advantageous. However, a final conclusion on this issue would be premature, since only two extreme precipitation events are considered.

  15. Simulation of subgrid orographic precipitation with an embedded 2-D cloud-resolving model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, Joon-Hee; Arakawa, Akio

    2016-03-01

    By explicitly resolving cloud-scale processes with embedded two-dimensional (2-D) cloud-resolving models (CRMs), superparameterized global atmospheric models have successfully simulated various atmospheric events over a wide range of time scales. Up to now, however, such models have not included the effects of topography on the CRM grid scale. We have used both 3-D and 2-D CRMs to simulate the effects of topography with prescribed "large-scale" winds. The 3-D CRM is used as a benchmark. The results show that the mean precipitation can be simulated reasonably well by using a 2-D representation of topography as long as the statistics of the topography such as the mean and standard deviation are closely represented. It is also shown that the use of a set of two perpendicular 2-D grids can significantly reduce the error due to a 2-D representation of topography.

  16. Effects of Model Resolution and Subgrid-Scale Physics on the Simulation of Daily Precipitation in the Continental United States

    SciTech Connect

    Duffy, P B; Iorio, J P; Govindasamy, B; Thompson, S L; Khairoutdinov, M; Randall, D

    2004-07-28

    We analyze simulations of the global climate performed at a range of spatial resolutions to assess the effects of horizontal spatial resolution on the ability to simulate precipitation in the continental United States. The model investigated is the CCM3 general circulation model. We also preliminarily assess the effect of replacing cloud and convective parameterizations in a coarse-resolution (T42) model with an embedded cloud-system resolving model (CSRM). We examine both spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation and daily-timescale temporal variability of precipitation in the continental United States. For DJF and SON, high-resolution simulations produce spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation that agree more closely with observed precipitation patterns than do results from the same model (CCM3) at coarse resolution. However, in JJA and MAM, there is little improvement in spatial patterns of seasonal-mean precipitation with increasing resolution, particularly in the Southeast. This is owed to the dominance of convective (i.e., parameterized) precipitation in these two seasons. We further find that higher-resolution simulations have more realistic daily precipitation statistics. In particular, the well-known tendency at coarse resolution to have too many days with weak precipitation and not enough intense precipitation is partially eliminated in higher-resolution simulations. However, even at the highest resolution examined here (T239), the simulated intensity of the mean and of high-percentile daily precipitation amounts is too low. This is especially true in the Southeast, where the most extreme events occur. A new GCM, in which a cloud-resolving model (CSRM) is embedded in each grid cell and replaces convective and stratiform cloud parameterizations, solves this problem, and actually produces too much precipitation in the form of extreme events. However, in contrast to high-resolution versions of CCM3, this model produces little improvement in

  17. The link between extreme precipitation and convective organization in a warming climate: Global radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Reed, Kevin A.; Medeiros, Brian

    2016-11-01

    The rate of increase of extreme precipitation in response to global warming varies dramatically across climate model simulations, particularly over the tropics, for reasons that have yet to be established. Here we propose one potential mechanism: changing organization of convection with climate. We analyze a set of simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with an idealized global radiative-convective equilibrium configuration forced by fixed sea surface temperatures varying in 2° increments from 285 to 307 K. In these simulations, convective organization varies from semiorganized in cold simulations, disorganized in warm simulations, and abruptly becomes highly organized at just over 300 K. The change in extreme precipitation with warming also varies across these simulations, including a large increase at the transition from disorganized to organized convection. We develop an extreme precipitation-focused metric for convective organization and use this to explore their connection.

  18. The Microwave Properties of Simulated Melting Precipitation Particles: Sensitivity to Initial Melting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, B. T.; Olson, W. S.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.

    2016-01-01

    A simplified approach is presented for assessing the microwave response to the initial melting of realistically shaped ice particles. This paper is divided into two parts: (1) a description of the Single Particle Melting Model (SPMM), a heuristic melting simulation for ice-phase precipitation particles of any shape or size (SPMM is applied to two simulated aggregate snow particles, simulating melting up to 0.15 melt fraction by mass), and (2) the computation of the single-particle microwave scattering and extinction properties of these hydrometeors, using the discrete dipole approximation (via DDSCAT), at the following selected frequencies: 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0GHz for radar applications and 89, 165.0, and 183.31GHz for radiometer applications. These selected frequencies are consistent with current microwave remote-sensing platforms, such as CloudSat and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparisons with calculations using variable-density spheres indicate significant deviations in scattering and extinction properties throughout the initial range of melting (liquid volume fractions less than 0.15). Integration of the single-particle properties over an exponential particle size distribution provides additional insight into idealized radar reflectivity and passive microwave brightness temperature sensitivity to variations in size/mass, shape, melt fraction, and particle orientation.

  19. Clouds and Precipitation Simulated by the US DOE Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, S.; Lin, W.; Yoon, J. H.; Ma, P. L.; Rasch, P. J.; Ghan, S.; Zhang, K.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Bogenschutz, P.; Gettelman, A.; Larson, V. E.; Neale, R. B.; Park, S.; Zhang, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    A new US Department of Energy (DOE) climate modeling effort is to develop an Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) to accelerate the development and application of fully coupled, state-of-the-art Earth system models for scientific and energy application. ACME is a high-resolution climate model with a 0.25 degree in horizontal and more than 60 levels in the vertical. It starts from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with notable changes to its physical parameterizations and other components. This presentation provides an overview on the ACME model's capability in simulating clouds and precipitation and its sensitivity to convection schemes. Results with using several state-of-the-art cumulus convection schemes, including those unified parameterizations that are being developed in the climate community, will be presented. These convection schemes are evaluated in a multi-scale framework including both short-range hindcasts and free-running climate simulations with both satellite data and ground-based measurements. Running climate model in short-range hindcasts has been proven to be an efficient way to understand model deficiencies. The analysis is focused on those systematic errors in clouds and precipitation simulations that are shared in many climate models. The goal is to understand what model deficiencies might be primarily responsible for these systematic errors.

  20. The microwave properties of simulated melting precipitation particles: sensitivity to initial melting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, B. T.; Olson, W. S.; Skofronick-Jackson, G.

    2016-01-01

    A simplified approach is presented for assessing the microwave response to the initial melting of realistically shaped ice particles. This paper is divided into two parts: (1) a description of the Single Particle Melting Model (SPMM), a heuristic melting simulation for ice-phase precipitation particles of any shape or size (SPMM is applied to two simulated aggregate snow particles, simulating melting up to 0.15 melt fraction by mass), and (2) the computation of the single-particle microwave scattering and extinction properties of these hydrometeors, using the discrete dipole approximation (via DDSCAT), at the following selected frequencies: 13.4, 35.6, and 94.0 GHz for radar applications and 89, 165.0, and 183.31 GHz for radiometer applications. These selected frequencies are consistent with current microwave remote-sensing platforms, such as CloudSat and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. Comparisons with calculations using variable-density spheres indicate significant deviations in scattering and extinction properties throughout the initial range of melting (liquid volume fractions less than 0.15). Integration of the single-particle properties over an exponential particle size distribution provides additional insight into idealized radar reflectivity and passive microwave brightness temperature sensitivity to variations in size/mass, shape, melt fraction, and particle orientation.

  1. Numerical simulation of pore size dependent anhydrite precipitation in geothermal reservoirs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mürmann, Mario; Kühn, Michael; Pape, Hansgeorg; Clauser, Christoph

    2013-04-01

    Porosity and permeability of reservoirs are key parameters for an economical use of hot water from geothermal installations and can be significantly reduced by precipitation of minerals, such as anhydrite. The borehole Allermöhe 1 near Hamburg (Germany) represents a failed attempt of geothermal heat mining due to anhydrite precipitation (Baermann et al. 2000). For a risk assessment of future boreholes it is essential to understand how and when anhydrite cementation occurred under reservoir conditions. From core samples of the Allermöhe borehole it was determined that anhydrite precipitation took place in regions of relatively high porosity while regions of low porosity remained uncemented (Wagner et al. 2005). These findings correspond to the fact that e.g. halite precipitation in porous media is found only in relatively large pores (Putnis and Mauthe 2001). This study and others underline that pore size controls crystallization and that it is therefore necessary to establish a relation between pore size and nucleation. The work presented here is based on investigations of Emmanuel and Berkowitz (2007) who present such a relation by applying a thermodynamic approach. However this approach cannot explain the heterogeneous precipitation observed in the Allermöhe core samples. We chose an advanced approach by considering electric system properties resulting in another relation between pore size and crystallization. It is well known that a high fluid supersaturation can be maintained in porous rocks (Putnis and Mauthe 2001). This clearly indicates that a supersaturation threshold exists exceeding thermodynamic equilibrium considerably. In order to quantify spatially heterogeneous anhydrite cementation a theoretical approach was chosen which considered the electric interaction between surface charges of the matrix and calcium and sulphate ions in the fluid. This approach was implemented into the numerical code SHEMAT (Clauser 2003) and used to simulate anhydrite

  2. Molecular dynamics simulations of swift heavy ion induced defect recovery in SiC

    SciTech Connect

    Backman, Marie; Toulemonde, Marcel; Pakarinen, Olli H; Juslin, Niklas; Djurabekova, Flyura; Nordlund, Kai; Debelle, Aurelien; Weber, William J

    2013-01-01

    Swift heavy ions induce a high density of electronic excitations that can cause the formation of amorphous ion tracks in insulators. No ion tracks have been observed in the semiconductor SiC, but recent experimental work suggests that irradiation damaged SiC can undergo defect recovery under swift heavy ion irradiation. It is believed that local heating of the lattice due to the electronic energy deposition can anneal, and thereby recover, some of the disordered structure. We simulate the local heating due to the ions by the inelastic thermal spike model and perform molecular dynamics simulations of dierent model damage states to study the defect recovery on an atomistic level. We find significant recovery of point defects and a disordered layer, as well as recrystallization at the amorphous-to-crystalline interface of an amorphous layer. The simulation results support the swift heavy ion annealing hypothesis.Swift heavy ions induce a high density of electronic excitations that can cause the formation of amorphous ion tracks in insulators. No ion tracks have been observed in the semiconductor SiC, but recent experimental work suggests that irradiation damaged SiC can undergo defect recovery under swift heavy ion irradiation. It is believed that local heating of the lattice due to the electronic energy deposition can anneal, and thereby recover, some of the disordered structure. We simulate the local heating due to the ions by the inelastic thermal spike model and perform molecular dynamics simulations of dierent model damage states to study the defect recovery on an atomistic level. We find significant recovery of point defects and a disordered layer, as well as recrystallization at the amorphous-to-crystalline interface of an amorphous layer. The simulation results support the swift heavy ion annealing hypothesis.

  3. Mechanisms of Diurnal Precipitation over the United States Great Plains: A Cloud-Resolving Model Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, M.-I.; Choi, I.; Tao, W.-K.; Schubert, S. D.; Kang, I.-K.

    2010-01-01

    The mechanisms of summertime diurnal precipitation in the US Great Plains were examined with the two-dimensional (2D) Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model (CRM). The model was constrained by the observed large-scale background state and surface flux derived from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program s Intensive Observing Period (IOP) data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP). The model, when continuously-forced by realistic surface flux and large-scale advection, simulates reasonably well the temporal evolution of the observed rainfall episodes, particularly for the strongly forced precipitation events. However, the model exhibits a deficiency for the weakly forced events driven by diurnal convection. Additional tests were run with the GCE model in order to discriminate between the mechanisms that determine daytime and nighttime convection. In these tests, the model was constrained with the same repeating diurnal variation in the large-scale advection and/or surface flux. The results indicate that it is primarily the surface heat and moisture flux that is responsible for the development of deep convection in the afternoon, whereas the large-scale upward motion and associated moisture advection play an important role in preconditioning nocturnal convection. In the nighttime, high clouds are continuously built up through their interaction and feedback with long-wave radiation, eventually initiating deep convection from the boundary layer. Without these upper-level destabilization processes, the model tends to produce only daytime convection in response to boundary layer heating. This study suggests that the correct simulation of the diurnal variation in precipitation requires that the free-atmospheric destabilization mechanisms resolved in the CRM simulation must be adequately parameterized in current general circulation models (GCMs) many of which are overly sensitive to the parameterized boundary layer heating.

  4. Preserving spatial linear correlations between neighboring stations in simulating daily precipitation using extended Markov models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ababaei, Behnam; Sohrabi, Teymour; Mirzaei, Farhad

    2014-10-01

    Most stochastic weather generators have their focus on precipitation because it is the most important variable affecting environmental processes. One of the methods to reproduce the precipitation occurrence time series is to use a Markov process. But, in addition to the simulation of short-term autocorrelations in one station, it is sometimes important to preserve the spatial linear correlations (SLC) between neighboring stations as well. In this research, an extension of one-site Markov models was proposed to preserve the SLC between neighboring stations. Qazvin station was utilized as the reference station and Takestan (TK), Magsal, Nirougah, and Taleghan stations were used as the target stations. The performances of different models were assessed in relation to the simulation of dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies in precipitation time series. The results revealed that in TK station, a Markov model with a first-order spatial model could be selected as the best model, while in the other stations, a model with the order of two or three could be selected. The selected (i.e., best) models were assessed in relation to preserving the SLC between neighboring stations. The results depicted that these models were very capable in preserving the SLC between the reference station and any of the target stations. But, their performances were weaker when the SLC between the other stations were compared. In order to resolve this issue, spatially correlated random numbers were utilized instead of independent random numbers while generating synthetic time series using the Markov models. Although this method slightly reduced the model performances in relation to dry and wet spells and short-term dependencies, the improvements related to the simulation of the SLC between the other stations were substantial.

  5. Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Dominguez, F; Rivera, E; Lettenmaier, D P; Castro1, and C. L.

    2012-03-01

    We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climatemodels (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases.

  6. Numerical simulations of relativistic heavy-ion reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daffin, Frank Cecil

    Bulk quantities of nuclear matter exist only in the compact bodies of the universe. There the crushing gravitational forces overcome the Coulomb repulsion in massive stellar collapses. Nuclear matter is subjected to high pressures and temperatures as shock waves propagate and burn their way through stellar cores. The bulk properties of nuclear matter are important parameters in the evolution of these collapses, some of which lead to nucleosynthesis. The nucleus is rich in physical phenomena. Above the Coulomb barrier, complex interactions lead to the distortion of, and as collision energies increase, the destruction of the nuclear volume. Of critical importance to the understanding of these events is an understanding of the aggregate microscopic processes which govern them. In an effort to understand relativistic heavy-ion reactions, the Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (Ueh33) (BUU) transport equation is used as the framework for a numerical model. In the years since its introduction, the numerical model has been instrumental in providing a coherent, microscopic, physical description of these complex, highly non-linear events. This treatise describes the background leading to the creation of our numerical model of the BUU transport equation, details of its numerical implementation, its application to the study of relativistic heavy-ion collisions, and some of the experimental observables used to compare calculated results to empirical results. The formalism evolves the one-body Wigner phase-space distribution of nucleons in time under the influence of a single-particle nuclear mean field interaction and a collision source term. This is essentially the familiar Boltzmann transport equation whose source term has been modified to address the Pauli exclusion principle. Two elements of the model allow extrapolation from the study of nuclear collisions to bulk quantities of nuclear matter: the modification of nucleon scattering cross sections in nuclear matter, and the

  7. Numerical simulations of relativistic heavy-ion reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daffin, Frank Cecil

    Bulk quantities of nuclear matter exist only in the compact bodies of the universe. There the crushing gravitational forces overcome the Coulomb repulsion in massive stellar collapses. Nuclear matter is subjected to high pressures and temperatures as shock waves propagate and burn their way through stellar cores. The bulk properties of nuclear matter are important parameters in the evolution of these collapses, some of which lead to nucleosynthesis. The nucleus is rich in physical phenomena. Above the Coulomb barrier, complex interactions lead to the distortion of, and as collision energies increase, the destruction of the nuclear volume. Of critical importance to the understanding of these events is an understanding of the aggregate microscopic processes which govern them. In an effort to understand relativistic heavy-ion reactions, the Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (Ueh33) (BUU) transport equation is used as the framework for a numerical model. In the years since its introduction, the numerical model has been instrumental in providing a coherent, microscopic, physical description of these complex, highly non-linear events. This treatise describes the background leading to the creation of our numerical model of the BUU transport equation, details of its numerical implementation, its application to the study of relativistic heavy-ion collisions, and some of the experimental observables used to compare calculated results to empirical results. The formalism evolves the one-body Wigner phase-space distribution of nucleons in time under the influence of a single-particle nuclear mean field interaction and a collision source term. This is essentially the familiar Boltzmann transport equation whose source term has been modified to address the Pauli exclusion principle. Two elements of the model allow extrapolation from the study of nuclear collisions to bulk quantities of nuclear matter: the modification of nucleon scattering cross sections in nuclear matter, and the

  8. Using sequential Gaussian simulation to quantify uncertainties in interpolated gauge based precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehlers, Lennart; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; He, Xin; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation is a key input to hydrological models. Spatially distributed rainfall used in hydrological modelling is commonly based on the interpolation of gauge rainfall using conventional geostatistical techniques such as kriging, e.g. Salamon and Feyen [2009], Stisen et al. [2011]. While being effective point interpolators [Moulin et al., 2009], these techniques are unable to reproduce the spatial variability inherent in the rainfall process at unsampled locations. Stochastic simulation approaches provide the means to better capture this variability and hence to quantify the associated spatial uncertainty [McMillan et al., 2011]. The objective of this study is to quantify uncertainties in interpolated gauge based rainfall by employing sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) coupled with ordinary kriging (OK) to generate realizations of daily precipitation at a 2x2 km2 grid. The rainfall gauge data was collected in a 1055 km2 subcatchment within the HOBE catchment (Jutland, Denmark) [Jensen and Illangasekare, 2011]. The following uncertainties are considered: i) interpolation uncertainty ii) uncertainty on the point measurement iii) location uncertainty. Results from using different numbers of SGS realizations and different lengths of the simulated period as well as different assumptions on the underlying uncertainties will be presented and discussed with regard to mean annual catchment rainfall. Jensen, K. H., and T. H. Illangasekare (2011), HOBE: A Hydrological Observatory, Vadose Zone J, 10(1), 1-7. McMillan, H., B. Jackson, M. Clark, D. Kavetski, and R. Woods (2011), Rainfall uncertainty in hydrological modelling: An evaluation of multiplicative error models, J Hydrol, 400(1-2), 83-94. Moulin, L., E. Gaume, and C. Obled (2009), Uncertainties on mean areal precipitation: assessment and impact on streamflow simulations, Hydrol Earth Syst Sc, 13(2), 99-114. Salamon, P., and L. Feyen (2009), Assessing parameter, precipitation, and predictive uncertainty in a

  9. Verification of high resolution simulation of precipitation and wind in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Menezes, Isilda; Pereira, Mário; Moreira, Demerval; Carvalheiro, Luís; Bugalho, Lourdes; Corte-Real, João

    2017-04-01

    Demand of energy and freshwater continues to grow as the global population and demands increase. Precipitation feed the freshwater ecosystems which provides a wealth of goods and services for society and river flow to sustain native species and natural ecosystem functions. The adoption of the wind and hydro-electric power supplies will sustain energy demands/services without restricting the economic growth and accelerated policies scenarios. However, the international meteorological observation network is not sufficiently dense to directly support high resolution climatic research. In this sense, coupled global and regional atmospheric models constitute the most appropriate physical and numerical tool for weather forecasting and downscaling in high resolution grids with the capacity to solve problems resulting from the lack of observed data and measuring errors. Thus, this study aims to calibrate and validate of the WRF regional model from precipitation and wind fields simulation, in high spatial resolution grid cover in Portugal. The simulations were performed in two-way nesting with three grids of increasing resolution (60 km, 20 km and 5 km) and the model performance assessed for the summer and winter months (January and July), using input variables from two different reanalyses and forecasted databases (ERA-Interim and NCEP-FNL) and different forcing schemes. The verification procedure included: (i) the use of several statistics error estimators, correlation based measures and relative errors descriptors; and, (ii) an observed dataset composed by time series of hourly precipitation, wind speed and direction provided by the Portuguese meteorological institute for a comprehensive set of weather stations. Main results suggested the good ability of the WRF to: (i) reproduce the spatial patterns of the mean and total observed fields; (ii) with relatively small values of bias and other errors; and, (iii) and good temporal correlation. These findings are in good

  10. Multivariate weather regimes in the Mediterranean, a perspective to increase Heavy Precipitating Events predictability using medium range ensemble forecasting?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joly, B.; Arbogast, P.; Descamps, L.; Labadie, C.

    2009-09-01

    South-eastern France is a region subject to very Heavy Precipitating Events (HPEs). They have been identified to often occur in some Large Scale recurrent Circulations (LSCs) which may play a significant role in triggering or maintaining the extreme convective processes (Nuissier et al., 2007). A previous study (within the French national CYPRIM Project, ACI-INSU) based on the classification of the geopotential height for a thousand rainy days extracted from the French southeastern regional raingauges network showed the existence of two different patterns associated with the HPEs and the importance of the coincidence of low-level ingredients. However, by design these patterns cannot be considered as objective features describing the whole large scale variability as weather regimes methods can do. Then, we intend to generalize these results by investigating a classification based on a multivariate atmospheric state vector rather than on a single parameter (the geopotential height at 500 hPa). This is also motivated by previous studies (Vautard et al. 1988, Vautard 1990) which have shown that weather regimes are linked with the low frequency variability sources and then could set up a framework to explain nonlinear transitions from low frequency to high variability events. We build a pseudo-state vector as a 25 parameters vector, the parameters being selected as the most correlated with daily rainfall. The number of classes is chosen using an hybrid method combining dynamical and hierarchical clustering. It leads to a 8-classes classification. Then the connections between the clusters and the HPEs shows that two clusters concentrate more than 70% of the HPEs. The composite analysis at different levels shows a good agreement with the CYPRIM patterns. Furthermore, a simple correlation analysis to the centroids of these two clusters shows they significantly discriminate the HPEs compared to the non-HPEs part of the data. Thus we explore the opportunity to determine

  11. Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, Lai-Yung Ruby; Xue, Yongkang; Boone, Aaron; de Sales, Fernando; Neupane, Naresh; Huang, Maoyi; Yoon, Jin -Ho

    2014-02-22

    Land use and land cover over Africa have changed substantially over the last sixty years and this change has been proposed to affect monsoon circulation and precipitation. This study examines the uncertainties on the effect of these changes on the African Monsoon system and Sahel precipitation using an ensemble of regional model simulations with different combinations of land surface and cumulus parameterization schemes. Furthermore, the magnitude of the response covers a broad range of values, most of the simulations show a decline in Sahel precipitation due to the expansion of pasture and croplands at the expense of trees and shrubs and an increase in surface air temperature.

  12. Diagnosis of inconsistencies in multi-year gridded precipitation data over mountainous areas and related impacts on hydrologic simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizukami, N.; Smith, M. B.

    2010-12-01

    It is common for the error characteristics of long-term precipitation data to change over time due to various factors such as gauge relocation and changes in data processing methods. The temporal consistency of precipitation data error characteristics is as important as data accuracy itself for hydrologic model calibration and subsequent use of the calibrated model for streamflow prediction. In mountainous areas, the generation of precipitation grids relies on sparse gage networks, the makeup of which often varies over time. This causes a change in error characteristics of the long-term precipitation data record. We will discuss the diagnostic analysis of the consistency of gridded precipitation time series and illustrate the adverse effect of inconsistent precipitation data on a hydrologic model simulation. We used hourly 4 km gridded precipitation time series over a mountainous basin in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California from October 1988 through September 2006. The basin is part of the broader study area that served as the focus of the second phase of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP-2), organized by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). To check the consistency of the gridded precipitation time series, double mass analysis was performed using single pixel and basin mean areal precipitation (MAP) values derived from gridded DMIP-2 and Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation data. The analysis leads to the conclusion that over the entire study time period, a clear change in error characteristics in the DMIP-2 data occurred in the beginning of 2003. This matches the timing of one of the major gage network changes. The inconsistency of two MAP time series computed from the gridded precipitation fields over two elevation zones was corrected by adjusting hourly values based on the double mass analysis. We show that model

  13. Simulation study of mechanical properties of bulk metallic glass systems: martensitic inclusions and twinned precipitates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaheri, A.; Abdeljawad, F.; Haataja, M.

    2014-12-01

    Monolithic bulk metallic glasses (BMGs) exhibit a unique combination of mechanical properties, such as high strength and large elasticity limits, but the lack of ductility is considered the main Achilles' heel of BMG systems. To increase the competitiveness of BMGs vis-à-vis conventional structural materials, the problem of catastrophic failure via intense plastic strain localization (‘shear banding’) has to be addressed. Recent experimental observations suggest that the addition of structural heterogeneities, in the form of crystalline particles, to BMG systems hinders the catastrophic propagation of shear bands and leads to enhanced ductility. These structural heterogeneities can be introduced by either forming BMG composites, where second-phase crystalline particles accommodate applied loads via martensitic transformation mechanisms, or developing glassy alloys that precipitate crystalline particles under deformation, a process by which further deformation can be sustained by twinning mechanisms in the crystalline phase. In this work, we present a non-linear continuum model capable of capturing the structural heterogeneity in the glassy phase and accounting for intrinsic work hardening via martensitic transformations in second-phase reinforcements in BMG composites and deformation twinning in precipitated crystalline particles. Simulation results reveal that in addition to intrinsic work hardening in the crystalline phase, particle size greatly affects the overall mechanical behavior of these BMG systems. The precipitation of crystalline particles in monolithic BMGs yields two-phase microstructures that promote more homogeneous deformation, delay the propagation of incipient shear bands, and ultimately result in improved ductility characteristics.

  14. Numerical simulations of mesoscale precipitation systems. Final progress report, 1 April-30 June 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Dingle, A.N.

    1982-05-12

    A numerical model designed for the study of mesoscale weather phenomena is presented. It is a three-dimensional, time-dependent model based upon a mesoscale primitive-equation system, and it includes parameterizations of cloud and precipitation processes, boundary-layer transfers, and ground surface energy and moisture budgets. This model was used to simulate the lake-effect convergence over and in the lee of Lake Michigan in late fall and early winter. The lake-effect convergence is created in advected cold air as it moves first from cold land to the warm constant-temperature lake surface, and then on to cold land. A numerical experiment with a prevailing northwesterly wind is conducted for a period of twelve hours. Two local maxima of the total precipitation are observed along the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. The results in this hypothetical case correspond quite well to the observed precipitation produced by a real event in which the hypothetical conditions are approximately fulfilled.

  15. Calcite precipitation dominates the electrical signatures of zero valent iron columns under simulated field conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Yuxin Wu; Roelof Versteeg; Lee Slater; Doug Labrecque

    2009-05-01

    Calcium carbonate is a major secondary mineral precipitate that influences PRB reactivity and hydraulic performance. In this study, we conducted column experiments to investigate electrical signatures resulting from concurrent CaCO3 and iron oxides precipitation in two simulated PRB media. Solid phase analysis identified CaCO3 (calcite and aragonite) as a major mineral phase throughout the columns, with magnetite being another major phase present close to the influent. Electrical measurements revealed a consistent decrease in conductivity and polarization magnitude of both columns, suggesting that the electrically insulating CaCO3 dominates the electrical response despite the presence of both electrically conductive iron oxides and CaCO3 precipitates. SEM/EDX imaging suggests that the electrical properties result from the geometrical arrangement of the mineral phases. The CaCO3 forms an insulating film on ZVI/magnetite surfaces, which we assume restricts redox-driven transfer of electric charge between the pore electrolyte and ZVI particles, as well as across interconnected ZVI particles. As surface reactivity also depends on the ability of the surface to engage in redox reactions, electrical measurements may provide a minimally invasive technology for monitoring reactivity loss.

  16. Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

    2015-09-01

    The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

  17. Factors affecting calcium precipitation during neutralisation in a simulated intestinal environment.

    PubMed

    Goss, Sandra; Prushko, Jennifer; Bogner, Robin

    2010-10-01

    Maintaining soluble calcium in the gastrointestinal tract after administration of a calcium supplement is essential for intestinal absorption. Due to the low solubility of calcium carbonate, calcium may precipitate as the carbonate salt during intestinal neutralisation with bicarbonate. The influence of neutralising solution, calcium salt and the presence of amino acids and bile components were determined in an in vitro system. After dissolution of calcium citrate or chloride salt in 0.1 N HCl, the mixture was neutralised to pH 7 with either HCO3(-) or OH(-). For further investigation, amino acids or bile components were added to the initial solution to simulate the effect of digested protein and bile, respectively. The pH and PCO2 were monitored, and samples were analysed for calcium during neutralisation. Precipitation of calcium occurred with the citrate salt, while the chloride salt only precipitated at a high secretion rate of HCO3(-), where no calcium remained in solution at pH 7 and PCO2 was at saturation. There was a buffering effect by amino acids, and bile components maintained calcium in solution. The total soluble calcium under the different physiological conditions in vitro may be used to further understand calcium solubility in vivo, a contributing factor of calcium absorption.

  18. Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle of Integrated Precipitable Water in the North American Monsoon Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ochoa, C. A.; Quintanar, A.; Adams, D. K.; Martinez-lopez, B.

    2015-12-01

    Organized deep convection over the North American monsoon region (NAM) is a salient climatic feature that has been the subject of several experimental campaigns and modeling efforts. Recently, however, in Mexico and the Caribbean, there has been mounting interest towards implementing low-cost, low-maintenance GPS-meteorological networks (TLALOCNet and COCOnet) that provide near real-time Integrated Precipitable Water data (IPW) into the assimilation cycle of regional models. A wealth of interesting new observational results concerning the link between the diurnal cycle of deep convection and the processes that could alter it at the surface and aloft has open up opportunities of model verification and improvements to the physics that are specific to subtropical deep convection. In this work, the diurnal cycle of IPW is studied using observational data collected during the North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013 experiment and numerical simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). WRF was run in climate mode to generate a simulation for the entire experiment using ECMWF ERA-Interim analysis data for initial and boundary conditions and spectral nudging. We classified the days during the experiment, according to type of mesoscale phenomena present each day and averaged days with same weather types in both data sets (observed and simulated). Preliminary results show that the simulated diurnal cycle of IPW is very sensitive to Land Use/Land Cover data and to initial and the boundary conditions. Preliminary results show that the simulated amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle of IPW is well represented only when a more up-to-date LULC is used (MODIS v.s. 99 USGS LULC) and the Thompson mycrophysics scheme is used. In agreement with the previous results, modeled precipitation time series agree better with observed GPS-meterological station reports during the NAM 2013 experiment.

  19. Contribution of the North Atlantic subtropical high to regional climate model (RCM) skill in simulating southeastern United States summer precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Jin, Jiming

    2015-07-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the physical mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show the largest biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US compared to other regions in the contiguous US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) western ridge. In the WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7° northwestward when compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated summer precipitation according to the relationship between the NASH western ridge and summer precipitation over the southeast. Experiments utilizing the four dimensional data assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns (i.e., wind fields) associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in the simulated SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by the simulated planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. Such changes in tropical convection induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the

  20. Simulating the transformation of heavy metals during coal or sewage sludge combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Han, J.; Xu, M.; Yao, H.; Furuuchi, M.; Sakano, T.; Kim, H.J.

    2007-01-15

    A mathematical model (FPM) is presented to predict the transformation of heavy metals in the downstream of combustor or incinerator. The model accounts for the transformation of heavy metals through the combined effect of condensation, nucleation, coagulation, external force and thermophoresis force. The calculation of heavy metals is embodied in the post-processor appended to Fluent software. Before the simulation, velocity, temperature, PbCl{sub 2} concentration and other initial parameters are obtained by experiment. In addition, the transformation of PbCl{sub 2} is also experimentally studied. The comparison of experimental and predicted results indicate that the fine particle model (FPM) is valid for predicting the transformation of heavy metals in the downstream of incinerator or combustor.

  1. Simulated hydrologic response to projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the Congo River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aloysius, Noel; Saiers, James

    2017-08-01

    Despite their global significance, the impacts of climate change on water resources and associated ecosystem services in the Congo River basin (CRB) have been understudied. Of particular need for decision makers is the availability of spatial and temporal variability of runoff projections. Here, with the aid of a spatially explicit hydrological model forced with precipitation and temperature projections from 25 global climate models (GCMs) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we explore the variability in modeled runoff in the near future (2016-2035) and mid-century (2046-2065). We find that total runoff from the CRB is projected to increase by 5 % [-9 %; 20 %] (mean - min and max - across model ensembles) over the next two decades and by 7 % [-12 %; 24 %] by mid-century. Projected changes in runoff from subwatersheds distributed within the CRB vary in magnitude and sign. Over the equatorial region and in parts of northern and southwestern CRB, most models project an overall increase in precipitation and, subsequently, runoff. A simulated decrease in precipitation leads to a decline in runoff from headwater regions located in the northeastern and southeastern CRB. Climate model selection plays an important role in future projections for both magnitude and direction of change. The multimodel ensemble approach reveals that precipitation and runoff changes under business-as-usual and avoided greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5 vs. RCP4.5) are relatively similar in the near term but deviate in the midterm, which underscores the need for rapid action on climate change adaptation. Our assessment demonstrates the need to include uncertainties in climate model and emission scenario selection during decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

  2. Extreme precipitation over European river basins in global Met Office Unified Model high-resolution climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiemann, Reinhard; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Mizielinski, Matthew S.; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Flood events affecting large European river basins, with a drainage area on the order of 100 000 square kilometres, are largely caused by extreme precipitation over these river basins immediately preceding the river floods and lasting for one or several days. In this study, we evaluate the representation of such extreme precipitation events in the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM). Extreme-value distributions of basin-scale precipitation are estimated for high-resolution (down to about 25 km grid spacing) global MetUM simulations conducted in the project UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather- resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk), and for gridded gauge-based reference precipitation from the European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) E-OBS product. Particular emphasis will be placed on how the representation of these extreme events depends on the horizontal grid resolution of the global atmospheric UPSCALE simulations.

  3. Microdosimetric Monte-Carlo Simulations and Measurements of Heavy Ion Irradiation of a TEPC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rollet, S.; Beck, P.; Bock, F.; Ferrari, A.; Latocha, M.; Uchihori, Y.; Wind, M.

    Microdosimetric methods are well suited for systematic study and quantification of the absorbed energy spatial and temporal distribution in irradiated matter A standard instrument used to measure the energy dissipated in microscopic sites by individual ionizing events is the Tissue Equivalent Proportional Counter TEPC The main focus of this work is to examine interactions of heavy ions with tissue using both experimental and numerical methods Measurements with a TEPC instrument were carried out recently in heavy ion radiation fields at the Heavy Ion Medical Accelerator HIMAC facility in Chiba which belongs to the National Institute of Radiological Sciences NIRS in Japan The instrument has been exposed to two kinds of heavy ions under different irradiation geometries and beam parameters The heavy ions used were Oxygen with energy of 400 MeV u and Iron of 300 MeV u For the simulation of the irradiation experiments two Monte Carlo codes are used namely FLUKA and GEANT4 Both codes are widely used for basic research and applications in radiation protection and dosimetry radiobiology radiotherapy and space Besides scoring average quantities both Monte Carlo codes have the capability to score energy deposition on an event by event basis Thus together with the total energy deposition a simulation of microdosimetric spectra is possible The comparison of measured and simulated lineal energy distribution show a satisfactory agreement both for irradiation with Oxygen ions of 400 MeV u and for Iron ions of 300 MeV u We will discuss in detail the

  4. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, Maria; Ambrizzi, Tercio; da Rocha, Rosmeri

    2015-04-01

    coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The austral summer and winter composites of interannual and intraseasonal anomalies showed for wet and dry extreme events the same spatial distribution in models and reanalyses. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Amazon. In the Intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. Note that there are differences between simulated and observed IS anomalies indicating that the models have problems to correctly represent the intensity of low frequency phenomena in this scale. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high resolution, mainly in the oceanic component, which contributes to the better solution of the small scale vortices in the ocean. This implies in improvements in the forecasting of sea surface temperature (SST) and as consequence in the ability of atmosphere to respond to this feature.

  5. The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain

    SciTech Connect

    Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun

    2003-12-01

    This paper examines sensitivity of regional climate simulations to spatial resolution using a 20-year simulation of the western U.S. at 40 km resolution and two 5-year simulations at 13 km resolution for the Pacific Northwest and California. The regional climate simulation at 40 km resolution shows a lack of precipitation along coastal hills, good agreements with observations on the windward slopes of the Cascades and Sierra, but over-prediction on the leeside and the basins beyond. Snowpack is grossly under-predicted throughout the western U.S. when compared against observations at snotel sites, which are typically located at the higher altitudes. Comparisons of the 40 km and 13 km resolution simulations suggest that during winter, higher spatial resolution mainly improves the simulation of precipitation in the coastal hills and basins. Along the Cascades and the Sierra Range, however, precipitation is strongly amplified at the higher spatial resolution and compares less favorably with observations. Higher resolution generally improves the spatial distribution of precipitation to yield higher spatial correlation when comparing the simulations to observation. During summer, higher resolution improves not only spatial distribution but also regional mean precipitation.

  6. Contribution of the North Atlantic Subtropical High to Regional Climate Model (RCM) Skill in Simulating Southeastern United States Summer Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, L.; Li, W.; Jin, J.

    2014-12-01

    This study assesses the skill of advanced regional climate models (RCMs) in simulating Southeastern United States (SE US) summer precipitation and explores the mechanisms responsible for the simulation skill at a process level. Analysis of the RCM output for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) indicates that the RCM simulations of summer precipitation show large biases and a remarkable spread over the SE US. The causes of such a spread are investigated by performing simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, a next-generation RCM developed by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results show that the simulated biases in SE US summer precipitation are due mainly to the misrepresentation of the modeled North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) western ridge. In WRF simulations, the NASH western ridge shifts 7-deg northwestward compared to that in the reanalysis ensemble, leading to a dry bias in the simulated precipitation according to the "NASH western ridge - Southeast summer precipitation" relationship. Experiments utilizing the Four Dimensional Data Assimilation technique further suggest that the improved representation of the circulation patterns associated with the NASH western ridge substantially reduces the bias in simulating SE US summer precipitation. Our analysis of circulation dynamics indicates that the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations is significantly influenced by planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes over the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, a decrease (increase) in the simulated PBL height tends to stabilize (destabilize) the lower troposphere over the Gulf of Mexico, and thus inhibits (favors) the onset and/or development of convection. The changes in tropical convecton induce a tropical-extratropical teleconnection pattern, which modulates the circulation along the NASH western ridge in the WRF simulations and contributes to the precipitation biases over the SE US

  7. Assessment of extreme precipitation events over Amazon simulated by global climate models from HIGEM family

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, M. D. S.; Ambrizzi, T.; Da Rocha, R.

    2015-12-01

    The increased horizontal resolution of climate models aims to improve the simulations accuracy and to understand the non-linear processes during interactions between different spatial scales within the climate system. Up to this moment, these interactions did not have a good representation on low horizontal resolution GCMs. The variations of extreme climatic events had been described and analyzed in the scientific literature. In a scenario of global warming it is necessary understanding and explaining extreme events and to know if global models may represent these events. The purpose of this study was to understand the impact of the horizontal resolution in high resolution coupled and atmospheric global models of HiGEM project in simulating atmospheric patterns and processes of interaction between spatial scales. Moreover, evaluate the performance of coupled and uncoupled versions of the High-Resolution Global Environmental Model in capturing the signal of interannual and intraseasonal variability of precipitation over Amazon region. The results indicated that the grid refinement and ocean-atmosphere coupling contributes to a better representation of seasonal patterns, both precipitation and temperature, on the Amazon region. Besides, the climatic models analyzed represent better than other models (regional and global) the climatic characteristics of this region. This indicates a breakthrough in the development of high resolution climate models. Both coupled and uncoupled models capture the observed signal of the ENSO and MJO oscillations, although with reversed phase in some cases. The interannual variability analysis showed that coupled simulations intensify the impact of the ENSO in the Amazon. In the intraseasonal scale, although the simulations intensify this signal, the coupled models present larger similarities with observations than the atmospheric models for the extremes of precipitation. The simulation of ENSO in GCMs can be attributed to their high

  8. Impact of the ongoing Amazonian deforestation on local precipitation: A GCM simulation study

    SciTech Connect

    Walker, G.K.; Sud, Y.C.; Atlas, R.

    1995-03-01

    Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm d{sup {minus}1} (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm d{sup {minus}1} (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2-day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. A larger decrease in precipitation as compared to evapotranspiration produces some drying and warming. The precipitation differences are consistent with the decrease in atmospheric moisture flux convergence and are consistent with earlier simulation studies of local climate change due to large-scale deforestation. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages. 34 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Song, Hua; Lin, Wuyin; Lin, Yanluan; Wolf, Audrey B.; Neggers, Roel; Donner, Leo J.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Liu, Yangang

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.

  10. Numerical simulation of the geographical sources of water for Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) Precipitation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Sud, Yogesh; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

    2003-01-01

    There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.

  11. Evaluation of Precipitation Simulated by Seven SCMs against the ARM Observations at the SGP Site

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Song, Hua; Lin, Wuyin; Lin, Yanluan; Wolf, Audrey B.; Neggers, Roel; Donner, Leo J.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Liu, Yangang

    2013-01-01

    This study evaluates the performances of seven single-column models (SCMs) by comparing simulated surface precipitation with observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from January 1999 to December 2001. Results show that although most SCMs can reproduce the observed precipitation reasonably well, there are significant and interesting differences in their details. In the cold season, the model-observation differences in the frequency and mean intensity of rain events tend to compensate each other for most SCMs. In the warm season, most SCMs produce more rain events in daytime than in nighttime, whereas the observations have more rain events in nighttime. The mean intensities of rain events in these SCMs are much stronger in daytime, but weaker in nighttime, than the observations. The higher frequency of rain events during warm-season daytime in most SCMs is related to the fact that most SCMs produce a spurious precipitation peak around the regime of weak vertical motions but rich in moisture content. The models also show distinct biases between nighttime and daytime in simulating significant rain events. In nighttime, all the SCMs have a lower frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations for both seasons. In daytime, most SCMs have a higher frequency of moderate-to-strong rain events than the observations, especially in the warm season. Further analysis reveals distinct meteorological backgrounds for large underestimation and overestimation events. The former occur in the strong ascending regimes with negative low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection, whereas the latter occur in the weak or moderate ascending regimes with positive low-level horizontal heat and moisture advection.

  12. Modeling and Simulation Tools for Heavy Lift Airships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hochstetler, Ron; Chachad, Girish; Hardy, Gordon; Blanken, Matthew; Melton, John

    2016-01-01

    For conventional fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft a variety of modeling and simulation tools have been developed to provide designers the means to thoroughly investigate proposed designs and operational concepts. However, lighter-than-air (LTA) airships, hybrid air vehicles, and aerostats have some important aspects that are different from heavier-than-air (HTA) vehicles. In order to account for these differences, modifications are required to the standard design tools to fully characterize the LTA vehicle design and performance parameters.. To address these LTA design and operational factors, LTA development organizations have created unique proprietary modeling tools, often at their own expense. An expansion of this limited LTA tool set could be accomplished by leveraging existing modeling and simulation capabilities available in the National laboratories and public research centers. Development of an expanded set of publicly available LTA modeling and simulation tools for LTA developers would mitigate the reliance on proprietary LTA design tools in use today. A set of well researched, open source, high fidelity LTA design modeling and simulation tools would advance LTA vehicle development and also provide the analytical basis for accurate LTA operational cost assessments. This paper will present the modeling and analysis tool capabilities required for LTA vehicle design, analysis of operations, and full life-cycle support. A survey of the tools currently available will be assessed to identify the gaps between their capabilities and the LTA industry's needs. Options for development of new modeling and analysis capabilities to supplement contemporary tools will also be presented.

  13. Pyrophosphate synthesis in iron mineral films and membranes simulating prebiotic submarine hydrothermal precipitates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barge, Laura M.; Doloboff, Ivria J.; Russell, Michael J.; VanderVelde, David; White, Lauren M.; Stucky, Galen D.; Baum, Marc M.; Zeytounian, John; Kidd, Richard; Kanik, Isik

    2014-03-01

    Cells use three main ways of generating energy currency to drive metabolism: (i) conversion of adenosine diphosphate (ADP) to adenosine triphosphate (ATP) by the proton motive force through the rotor-stator ATP synthase; (ii) the synthesis of inorganic phosphate˜phosphate bonds via proton (or sodium) pyrophosphate synthase; or (iii) substrate-level phosphorylation through the direct donation from an active phosphoryl donor. A mechanism to produce a pyrophosphate bond as “energy currency” in prebiotic systems is one of the most important considerations for origin of life research. Baltscheffsky (1996) suggests that inorganic pyrophosphate (PO74-; PPi) may have preceded ATP/ADP as an energy storage molecule in earliest life, produced by an H+ pyrophosphatase. Here we test the hypothesis that PPi could be synthesized in inorganic precipitates simulating hydrothermal chimney structures transected by thermal and/or ionic gradients. Appreciable yields of PPi were obtained via substrate phosphorylation by acetyl phosphate within the iron sulfide/silicate precipitates at temperatures expected for an alkaline hydrothermal system. The formation of PPi only occurred in the solid phase, i.e. when both Pi and the phosphoryl donor were precipitated with Fe-sulfides or Fe-silicates. The amount of Ac-Pi incorporated into the precipitate was a significant factor in the amount of PPi that could form, and phosphate species were more effectively incorporated into the precipitate at higher temperatures (⩾50 to >85 °C). Thus, we expect that the hydrothermal precipitate would be more enriched in phosphate (and especially, Ac-Pi) near the inner margins of a hydrothermal mound where PPi formation would be at a maximum. Iron sulfide and iron silicate precipitates effectively stabilized Ac-Pi and PPi against hydrolysis (relative to hydrolysis in aqueous solution). Thus it is plausible that PPi could accumulate as an energy currency up to useful concentrations for early life in a

  14. An analytic study of a two-phase laminar airfoil in simulated heavy rain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hsu, Yu-Kao

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model for a two-phase flow laminar airfoil in simulated heavy rain has been established. The set of non-linear partial differential equations has been converted into a set of finite difference equations; appropriate initial and boundary conditions are provided. The numerical results are compared with the experimental measurements. They show good agreement in quality.

  15. Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, X.; Shi, Y.; Song, R.; Giorgi, F.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, D.

    2008-08-01

    Multi-decadal high resolution climate change simulations over East Asia are performed using the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model, RegCM3, nested within the NASA/NCAR global model FvGCM. Two sets of simulations are conducted at 20-km grid spacing for present day and future climate (IPCC A2 scenario). The mean precipitation change during the monsoon season (May to September) over China is analyzed and intercompared between the RegCM and FvGCM. Simulation of the present day precipitation by the RegCM shows a better performance than that of the driving FvGCM in terms of both spatial pattern and amount. The main improvement of the RegCM is the removal of an artificial precipitation center over the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau simulated by the FvGCM. The FvGCM simulates a predominant increase of precipitation over the region, whereas the RegCM shows extended areas of decrease. The causes of these differences are investigated and explained in terms of the different topographical forcing on circulation and moisture flux in the two models. We also find that the RegCM-simulated changes are in better agreement with observed precipitation trends over East Asia. It is suggested that high resolution models are needed to better investigate future climate projections over China and East Asia.

  16. Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation in Coupled Regional Climate Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas M.; Weigel, Andreas P.; Liniger, Mark A.; Buser, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

    2010-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have major impacts on society and ecosystems during the upcoming decades. The exact quantification of the climate change signal to be expected, however, is still associated with many uncertainties. For an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) uncertainties in projecting future climate arise from a number of different sources: uncertainties in physical process understanding and model formulation, natural climate variability, and the amount of future anthropogenic greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. When analyzing AOGCM-driven regional climate model (RCM) simulations, which are often applied to provide local climate change information to the impacts community and policy makers, a further level of model uncertainty is introduced. An important step towards quantifying model uncertainty is the analysis of systematic model biases and of the the inter-model spread of the climate change signals obtained. Here, we compare RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation from the FP6-ENSEMBLES project among each other and against observations over Europe, and in greater detail over Switzerland. The RCMs (at 25 km horizontal resolution) were driven by AOGCMs and run in transient mode over the period 1950 to 2050 based on the A1B emission scenario. Some of the RCMs were forced by the same AOGCM, hence allowing to study the spread of different RCMs under the same boundary conditions. Climate change over Switzerland is assessed for the period 2021-50 as seasonal means over distinct climatic regions. The coupled RCM-GCM models exhibit remarkably large systematic biases in temperature and precipitation. Over selected European regions the absolute temperature bias can be as high as 5 K, although the annual cycle is relatively well reproduced. In general, the models simulate too wet conditions with biases of 50 - 100 % above observations during wintertime. Over Switzerland the interannual variability is generally overestimated

  17. Using computer simulations to study relativistic heavy ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, Joelle Lynn

    1998-12-01

    One of the most exciting topics in high-energy nuclear physics is the study of the potential phase transition between hadronic and partonic matter. Information about this transition, if it exists and can be experimentally determined, would be vital in understanding confinement of quarks and gluons inside hadrons. New accelerators, RHIC and LIIC, will be online in the next few years and will focus on finding evidence for this transition. RHIC will collide Au on Au at center of mass energies equal to 200 GeV/nucleon and create a high density, high temperature state of matter. To study the large particle multiplicities that will occur at these experiments, computer simulations are being developed. Within this thesis, one type of simulation will be detailed and used to study the invariant mass spectrum of leptons pairs measured at CERN SPS and several hadronic observables that could be measured at RHIC.

  18. Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabari, Hossein; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Saeed, Sajjad; Brisson, Erwan; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Willems, Patrick

    2016-09-01

    This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local sub-daily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.

  19. Heavy precipitation and the responses within emergency management - a new approach for emergency planning and disaster prevention by utilizing fire brigade operation data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kutschker, Thomas; Glade, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    An increase of intense rainfall events in the center regions of Europe is one of the assumed effects of climate change. Climate scenarios indicate also large seasonal and regional differences concerning the magnitude. Structural damages and financial loss resulting from heavy precipitation depend on natural parameters such as topography and vegetation cover of the specific area, but also on socio-economic parameters such as urbanized and industrialized areas, population density and the presence of critical infrastructure. In particular mudflows and floods cause damages such as flooded basements and streets, undercutting of roads or spilled sewage drains. The emergency management has to consider these effects appropriately. Commonly, this is the responsibilities is taken by the fire brigades and civil protection units. Within their daily routines, numerous data is collected, but commonly not utilized for scientific purposes. In particular fire brigade operation data can be used accordingly to describe the intensity of the aftermath when heavy precipitation strikes a certain area. One application is described in this study based on a example in Offenbach, Germany. The civil protection in Germany is based on a federal system with a bottom-up command-structure and responsibility to the local community. Therefore it is not easy to collect the overall incident data for a widespread affected area. To examine particular local effects of heavy precipitation events it is necessary to match the meteorological data provided by the German Meteorological Service (DWD) with the incident data of all effected fire brigades, which sometimes is impeded by the usual resolution of meteorological data. In this study, a method of comprehensive evaluation of meteorological data and the operation data from local fire brigades has been developed for the Rhine-Main-Area. This area is one of the largest metropolitan regions in Germany with a very high density in population as well as

  20. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions

  1. The Role of Atmospheric Aerosol Concentration on Deep Convective Precipitation: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Li, Xiaowen; Khain, Alexander; Matsui, Toshihisa; Lang, Stephen; Simpson, Joanne

    2010-01-01

    Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds NRC [2001]." The aerosol effect on Clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect, is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. In this paper, a cloud-resolving model (CRM) with detailed spectral-bin microphysics was used to examine the effect of aerosols on three different deep convective cloud systems that developed in different geographic locations: South Florida, Oklahoma and the Central Pacific, In all three cases, rain reaches the ground earlier for the low CCN (clean) case. Rain suppression is also evident in all three cases with high CCN (dirty) case. However, this suppression only occurs during the first hour of the simulations. During the mature stages of the simulations, the effects of increasing aerosol concentration range from rain suppression in the Oklahoma case, to almost no effect in the Florida case, to rain enhancement in the Pacific case. These results show the complexity of aerosol interactions with convection. The model results suggest that evaporative cooling is a key process in determining whether high CCN reduces or enhances precipitation. Stronger evaporative cooling can produce a stronger cold pool and thus stronger low-level convergence through interactions

  2. Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Da Rocha, Rosmeri P.; Morales, Carlos A.; Cuadra, Santiago V.; Ambrizzi, TéRcio

    2009-05-01

    Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5°S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the

  3. Enhancements to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating in-stream water temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Markstrom, S. L.; Hay, L.

    2010-12-01

    A stream temperature module has been developed for the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for simulating maximum- and mean-daily stream temperature. This module provides additional simulation capabilities by coupling PRMS with the U.S. Geological Survey Stream Network Temperature (SNTEMP) model. PRMS is a modular, deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model that simulates watershed response to various combinations of climate and land use. Normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt can be simulated to evaluate changes in water-balance relations, streamflow regimes, soil-water relations, and ground-water recharge. SNTEMP was developed to help aquatic biologists and engineers predict the effects of flow regime changes on water temperatures. This coupling of PRMS with SNTEMP will allow scientists and watershed managers to evaluate the effects of historical climate and projected climate change, landscape evolution, and resource management scenarios on watershed hydrology and in-stream water temperature. The prototype of this coupled model was developed for the U.S. Geological Survey Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) and tested in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeastern United States. Preliminary results from the prototype are presented.

  4. Precipitation in the EURO-CORDEX 0.11° and 0.44° simulations: high resolution, high benefits?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prein, A. F.; Gobiet, A.; Truhetz, H.; Keuler, K.; Goergen, K.; Teichmann, C.; Fox Maule, C.; van Meijgaard, E.; Déqué, M.; Nikulin, G.; Vautard, R.; Colette, A.; Kjellström, E.; Jacob, D.

    2016-01-01

    In the framework of the EURO-CORDEX initiative an ensemble of European-wide high-resolution regional climate simulations on a 0.11° ({˜}12.5 km) grid has been generated. This study investigates whether the fine-gridded regional climate models are found to add value to the simulated mean and extreme daily and sub-daily precipitation compared to their coarser-gridded 0.44° ({˜}50 km) counterparts. Therefore, pairs of fine- and coarse-gridded simulations of eight reanalysis-driven models are compared to fine-gridded observations in the Alps, Germany, Sweden, Norway, France, the Carpathians, and Spain. A clear result is that the 0.11° simulations are found to better reproduce mean and extreme precipitation for almost all regions and seasons, even on the scale of the coarser-gridded simulations (50 km). This is primarily caused by the improved representation of orography in the 0.11° simulations and therefore largest improvements can be found in regions with substantial orographic features. Improvements in reproducing precipitation in the summer season appear also due to the fact that in the fine-gridded simulations the larger scales of convection are captured by the resolved-scale dynamics . The 0.11° simulations reduce biases in large areas of the investigated regions, have an improved representation of spatial precipitation patterns, and precipitation distributions are improved for daily and in particular for 3 hourly precipitation sums in Switzerland. When the evaluation is conducted on the fine (12.5 km) grid, the added value of the 0.11° models becomes even more obvious.

  5. The effect of horizontal resolution of the simulation of precipitation extremes in the Community Atmospheric model version 5.1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.; Prabhat, M.; Li, F.; Paciorek, C. J.; Collins, W.

    2014-12-01

    Contemporary high performance computing technology currently enables multi-decadal global atmospheric models at horizontal resolutions of 25km. Simulated storms in such models exhibit sharper gradients and higher extreme precipitations rates than is typical in CMIP5 class models. We compare daily and pentad extreme precipitation statistics from the Community Atmospheric model version 5.1 (CAM5.1) at resolutions of approximately 200, 100 and 25km at the equator with available gridded observational products. We find that there is considerable observational uncertainty in these products, but that the high-resolution configuration performs better than low-resolution configurations when cumulus processes do not contribute significantly to precipitation rates. However, we also find no evidence that simulated extreme precipitation rates have converged at the 25km resolution.

  6. Evaluation of simulated acid precipitation effects on forest microcosms. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Kelly, J.M.; Strickland, R.C.; Weatherford, F.P.; Noggle, J.C.

    1984-04-01

    Microcosms were treated for a 30-month period with simulated precipitation acidified to four pH levels (5.7, 4.5, 4.0, and 3.5) to evaluate the impact of acid precipitation on foliar leaching, plant nutrient content, soil leaching, soil nutrient content, and litter decomposition. Direct effects of acid precipitation on diameter growth, bud break, leaf senescence, chlorophyll content, stomatal size, stomatal density, photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration, and cuticle erosion were evaluated on tulip poplar, white oak, and Virginia pine seedlings growing as mixed stands in the microcosms. None of the plant physiological or morphological parameters evaluated responded in a statistically significant manner as a result of treatment. A significant treatment canopy interaction was observed in the form of a 60 percent increase in calcium input in throughfall in response to the pH 3.5 treatment. Foliar nutrient content did not change in response to treatment nor did field measurements of decomposer activity. Soil analysis indicated a significantly lower concentration of exchangeable calcium and magnesium in the top 3.5 cm of the mineral soil in association with the pH 3.5 treatment. Soil leachate concentrations exhibited significant increases at both the 25 and 50 cm depths. However, at the 100 cm depth no significant response in concentration or elemental loss from the system was observed. Laboratory respiration measurements indicated a small, but statistically significant reduction in decomposer activity in the lower litter (02) horizon. This reduction was masked in the field measurements of decomposer activity due to the relatively small contribution of the 02 to total soil respiration. 38 references, 12 figures, 18 tables.

  7. Assessment of WRF microphysics schemes to simulate extreme precipitation events from the perspective of GMI radiative signatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Y.; Shin, D. B.; Joh, M.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical simulations of precipitation depend to a large degree on the assumed cloud microphysics schemes representing the formation, growth and fallout of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Recent studies show that assumed cloud microphysics play a major role not only in forecasting precipitation, especially in cases of extreme precipitation events, but also in the quality of the passive microwave rainfall estimation. Evaluations of the various Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model microphysics schemes in this study are based on a method that was originally developed to construct the a-priori databases of precipitation profiles and associated brightness temperatures (TBs) for precipitation retrievals. This methodology generates three-dimensional (3D) precipitation fields by matching the GPM dual frequency radar (DPR) reflectivity profiles with those calculated from cloud resolving model (CRM)-derived hydrometeor profiles. The method eventually provides 3D simulated precipitation fields over the DPR scan swaths. That is, atmospheric and hydrometeor profiles can be generated at each DPR pixel based on CRM and DPR reflectivity profiles. The generated raining systems over DPR observation fields can be applied to any radiometers that are unaccompanied with a radar for microwave radiative calculation with consideration of each sensor's channel and field of view. Assessment of the WRF model microphysics schemes for several typhoon cases in terms of emission and scattering signals of GMI will be discussed.

  8. Prediction of the austenite-grain size of microalloyed steels based on the simulation of the evolution of carbonitride precipitates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorbachev, I. I.; Pasynkov, A. Yu.; Popov, V. V.

    2015-11-01

    Kinetic calculations of the evolution of carbonitride precipitates in low-alloy steels with Nb and Ti have been performed for different temperatures of austenitizing. Based on the data of the kinetic simulation of the ensembles of carbonitride precipitates, the expected size of the austenite grain has been calculated using different models. The results obtained have been compared with experimental data. It has been shown that the best agreement with the experiment is achieved for the high-temperature region (1150-1250°C) when using the Gladman model (with the parameter Z = 2) with allowance for the polydispersity of the ensemble of precipitates.

  9. Using Python to generate AHPS-based precipitation simulations over CONUS using Amazon distributed computing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalek, P.; Kim, S. M.; Berry, R. D.; Liang, A.; Small, T.; Brevdo, E.; Kuznetsova, A.

    2012-12-01

    We describe how the Climate Corporation uses Python and Clojure, a language impleneted on top of Java, to generate climatological forecasts for precipitation based on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) radar based daily precipitation measurements. A 2-year-long forecasts is generated on each of the ~650,000 CONUS land based 4-km AHPS grids by constructing 10,000 ensembles sampled from a 30-year reconstructed AHPS history for each grid. The spatial and temporal correlations between neighboring AHPS grids and the sampling of the analogues are handled by Python. The parallelization for all the 650,000 CONUS stations is further achieved by utilizing the MAP-REDUCE framework (http://code.google.com/edu/parallel/mapreduce-tutorial.html). Each full scale computational run requires hundreds of nodes with up to 8 processors each on the Amazon Elastic MapReduce (http://aws.amazon.com/elasticmapreduce/) distributed computing service resulting in 3 terabyte datasets. We further describe how we have productionalized a monthly run of the simulations process at full scale of the 4km AHPS grids and how the resultant terabyte sized datasets are handled.

  10. [Simulation and verification for model of phytoremediation on heavy metal contaminated sediment].

    PubMed

    Li, Hong-Xia; Lin, Wen-Bo; Li, Yu-Qing; Nie, Ying-Jin; Liu, Fan-Jia; Zhao, Xin-Hua

    2011-07-01

    In order to obtain dynamic changes of uptake and translocation and accumulation amounts of heavy metal lead in contaminated sediments in plants over time, the dynamic process of uptake and accumulation of lead in plants were simulated by system dynamics mechanism model of plant uptake to lead. Verification test was conducted based on simulation model after gain mass of data through planting maize in heavy metal contaminated sediment by greenhouse cultivation. The results indicate that the results of uptake and the accumulation of lead by maize in experiments are consistent with the conclusions of theoretical simulation model. It is proved that the dynamics mechanism model of plant uptake to lead is reasonable and effective.

  11. Inhomogeneities detection in annual precipitation time series in Portugal using direct sequential simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caineta, Júlio; Ribeiro, Sara; Costa, Ana Cristina; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar

    2014-05-01

    Climate data homogenisation is of major importance in monitoring climate change, the validation of weather forecasting, general circulation and regional atmospheric models, modelling of erosion, drought monitoring, among other studies of hydrological and environmental impacts. This happens because non-climate factors can cause time series discontinuities which may hide the true climatic signal and patterns, thus potentially bias the conclusions of those studies. In the last two decades, many methods have been developed to identify and remove these inhomogeneities. One of those is based on geostatistical simulation (DSS - direct sequential simulation), where local probability density functions (pdf) are calculated at candidate monitoring stations, using spatial and temporal neighbouring observations, and then are used for detection of inhomogeneities. This approach has been previously applied to detect inhomogeneities in four precipitation series (wet day count) from a network with 66 monitoring stations located in the southern region of Portugal (1980-2001). This study revealed promising results and the potential advantages of geostatistical techniques for inhomogeneities detection in climate time series. This work extends the case study presented before and investigates the application of the geostatistical stochastic approach to ten precipitation series that were previously classified as inhomogeneous by one of six absolute homogeneity tests (Mann-Kendall test, Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, Von Neumann ratio test, Standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) for a single break, Pettit test, and Buishand range test). Moreover, a sensibility analysis is implemented to investigate the number of simulated realisations that should be used to accurately infer the local pdfs. Accordingly, the number of simulations per iteration is increased from 50 to 500, which resulted in a more representative local pdf. A set of default and recommended settings is provided, which will help

  12. Simulated Topography in Western North America Impacts Hemispheric Circulation Patterns and Regional Precipitation in IPCC AR4 Coupled Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAfee, S. A.; Russell, J. L.

    2009-12-01

    Simulations of the late-20th century (1979-1999) by most of the coupled models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) overestimate mean winter (November to April) precipitation for all or part of western North America in comparison to observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project. These precipitation errors appear to be associated with 1) a southward bias in 200-hPa zonal-wind speeds, 2) overly zonal flow patterns (weak Pacific-North America pattern), and 3) muted rain shadows, all of which are also prevalent among general circulation models. In addition, the magnitude of error in simulations of late-20th century winter precipitation is significantly correlated with projected changes in winter precipitation in the mid- and late-21st century over parts of the southwestern United States and Mexico, increasing uncertainty about the timing and extent of drying in a region where water resources are already stressed and intensifying drought is expected. We suggest that these problems are related to difficulties in simulating the extent, volume, and topographic complexity of the Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada, Cascades and other mountain ranges in the West within the relatively coarse models. These results identify areas of concern in regional precipitation and water resource projections and suggest steps that can be taken to improve both hemispheric-scale circulation patterns and regional hydrological projections for western North America within general circulation models.

  13. Interdecadal Connection Between Artic Temperature and Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Valley in the CMIP5 Historical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Li, Yuefeng; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Xiao, Ziniu; Wei, Min; Li, Qingquan

    2013-10-01

    This study assesses the ability of the Phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations in capturing the interdecadal precipitation enhancement over the Yangtze River valley (YRV) and investigates the contributions of Arctic warming to the interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Six CMIP5 historical simulations including models from Canada (CCCma), China (BCC), Germany (MPI-M), Japan (MRI), United Kingdom (MOHC), and United States (NCAR) are used. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and observed precipitation are also used for comparison. Among the six CMIP5 simulations, only CCCma can approximately simulate the enhancement of interdecadal summer precipitation over the YRV in 1990-2005 relative to 1960-1975, and the relationships between the summer precipitation with surface temperature (Ts), the 850hPa winds, and 500hPa height field (H500), and between Ts and H500 using regression, correlation, and SVD analyses. It is found that CCCma can reasonably simulate the interdecadal surface warming over the boreal mid-to high latitudes and the Arctic in winter, spring and summer. The summer Baikal blocking appears to be the bridge that links the winter and spring surface warming over the mid-to high latitude and Arctic with the enhancement of summer precipitation over the YRV. Models that missed some or all of these relationships found in CCCma and the reanalysis failed to simulate the interdecadal enhancement of precipitation over the YRV. This points to the importance of high latitude and Arctic processes on interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon and the challenge for global climate models to correctly simulate the linkages.

  14. Simulated microgravity increases heavy ion radiation-induced apoptosis in human B lymphoblasts.

    PubMed

    Dang, Bingrong; Yang, Yuping; Zhang, Erdong; Li, Wenjian; Mi, Xiangquan; Meng, Yue; Yan, Siqi; Wang, Zhuanzi; Wei, Wei; Shao, Chunlin; Xing, Rui; Lin, Changjun

    2014-03-03

    Microgravity and radiation, common in space, are the main factors influencing astronauts' health in space flight, but their combined effects on immune cells are extremely limited. Therefore, the effect of simulated microgravity on heavy ion radiation-induced apoptosis, and reactive oxygen species (ROS)-sensitive apoptosis signaling were investigated in human B lymphoblast HMy2.CIR cells. Simulated microgravity was achieved using a Rotating Wall Vessel Bioreactor at 37°C for 30 min. Heavy carbon-ion irradiation was carried out at 300 MeV/u, with a linear energy transfer (LET) value of 30 keV/μm and a dose rate of 1Gy/min. Cell survival was evaluated using the Trypan blue exclusion assay. Apoptosis was indicated by Annexin V/propidium iodide staining. ROS production was assessed by cytometry with a fluorescent probe dichlorofluorescein. Malondialdehyde was detected using a kit. Extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK), mitogen-activated protein kinase phosphatase-1 (MKP-1) and caspase-3 activation were measured by immunoblotting. Simulated microgravity decreased heavy ion radiation-induced cell survival and increased apoptosis in HMy2.CIR cells. It also amplified heavy ion radiation-elicited intracellular ROS generation, which induced ROS-sensitive ERK/MKP-1/caspase-3 activation in HMy2.CIR cells. The above phenomena could be reversed by the antioxidants N-acetyl cysteine (NAC) and quercetin. These results illustrated that simulated microgravity increased heavy ion radiation-induced cell apoptosis, mediated by a ROS-sensitive signal pathway in human B lymphoblasts. Further, the antioxidants NAC and quercetin, especially NAC, might be good candidate drugs for protecting astronauts' and space travelers' health and safety. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Comparison of two bias correction methods for precipitation simulated with a regional climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tschöke, Gabriele Vanessa; Kruk, Nadiane Smaha; de Queiroz, Paulo Ivo Braga; Chou, Sin Chan; de Sousa Junior, Wilson Cabral

    2017-02-01

    This study evaluates the performance of two bias correction techniques—power transformation and gamma distribution adjustment—for Eta regional climate model (RCM) precipitation simulations. For the gamma distribution adjustment, the number of dry days is not taken as a fixed parameter; rather, we propose a new methodology for handling dry days. We consider two cases: the first case is defined as having a greater number of simulated dry days than the observed number, and the second case is defined as the opposite. The present climate period was divided into calibration and validation sets. We evaluate the results of the two bias correction techniques using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov nonparametric test and the sum of the differences between the cumulative distribution curves. These tests show that both correction techniques were effective in reducing errors and consequently improving the reliability of the simulations. However, the gamma distribution correction method proved to be more efficient, particularly in reducing the error in the number of dry days.

  16. Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kelley, C. P.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Kushnir, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Winter and summer Mediterranean precipitation climatology and trends since 1950 as simulated by the newest generation of global climate models, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), are evaluated with respect to observations and the previous generation of models (CMIP3) used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Observed precipitation in the Mediterranean region is defined by wet winters and drier summers, and is characterized by substantial spatial and temporal variability. The observed drying trend since 1950 was predominantly due to winter drying, with very little contribution from the summer. However, in the CMIP5 multimodel mean, the precipitation trend since 1950 is evenly divided throughout the seasonal cycle. This may indicate that in observation, multidecadal internal variability, particularly that associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), dominates the wintertime trend. An estimate of the observed externally forced trend shows that winter drying dominates in observations but the spatial patterns are grossly similar to the multi-model mean trend. The similarity is particularly robust in the eastern Mediterranean region, indicating a radiatively forced component being more robust there. Results of this study also reveal modest improvement for the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble in representation of the observed winter and summer climatology. The results of this study are important for assessment of model predictions of hydroclimate change in the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a "hotspot" of future subtropical drying.; Fig. 2: Precipitation climatology (left) and trends (right) for 1950 to 2004 plotted as box and whisker diagrams using 109 historical runs from 23 CMIP5 models. The 25th and 75th percentiles of the model distributions are shown by the edges of the boxes, the medians and means are plotted as the horizontal lines and the red dots within the boxes respectively, the

  17. Reduction on the anaerobic biological activity inhibition caused by heavy metals and sulphates in effluents through chemical precipitation with soda and lime.

    PubMed

    Alves, L de Carvalho; Cammarota, M C; De França, F P

    2006-12-01

    The School of Chemistry Environmental Technology Laboratory generates 43.4 1 of effluent with low pH (0.7) and high contents of COD (1908 mgO2 l(-1)), phenol (132.1 mg l(-1)), sulfate (36700 mg l(-1)) and heavy metals (28.2 mg Hg l(-1); 82.1 mg Cr(total) l(-1); 30.8 mg Cu l(-1); 57.4 mg Fe(total) l(-1); 16.2 mg Al l(-1)) weekly. These data show that this effluent presents high toxicity for biological treatment, with a physical-chemical step being necessary before a biological step. Preliminary studies showed that the most toxic constituents of the effluent were sulfate, phenol and total chromium. In this work, a chemical precipitation step with sodium hydroxide or lime was evaluated for the toxicity reduction on anaerobic microbial consortium. These experiments were carried out with increasing concentrations of alkalis in the effluent in order to obtain pH initial values of 8-12. Similar results were obtained for COD (15-28%), turbidity (95-98%), phenol (13-24%) and total chromium (99.8-99.9%) removals in each condition studied with soda or lime. Sulfate was only removed by precipitation with lime, obtaining reductions from 84 to 88%. The toxicity on the anaerobic sludge was studied employing specific methanogenic activity (SMA) analysis of raw and treated effluent (after chemical precipitation step). The SMA experiments showed that chemical precipitation at pH 8 reduces the toxic effect of the effluent on anaerobic microbial consortium three times (with soda) and thirteen times (with lime). These results indicate that precipitation with lime is more efficient at toxicity removal, however the produced sludge volume is around two times higher than that produced with soda.

  18. Simulation of spray dispersion in a simplified heavy vehicle wake

    SciTech Connect

    Paschkewitz, J S

    2006-01-13

    Simulations of spray dispersion in a simplified tractor-trailer wake have been completed with the goal of obtaining a better understanding of how to mitigate this safety hazard. The Generic Conventional Model (GCM) for the tractor-trailer was used. The impact of aerodynamic drag reduction devices, specifically trailer-mounted base flaps, on the transport of spray in the vehicle wake was considered using the GCM. This analysis demonstrated that base flaps including a bottom plate may actually worsen motorist visibility because of the interaction of fine spray with large vortex flows in the wake. This work suggests that to use computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to design and evaluate spray mitigation strategies the jet or sheet breakup processes can be modeled using an array of injectors of small (< 0.1 mm) water droplets; however the choice of size distribution, injection locations, directions and velocities is largely unknown and requires further study. Possible containment strategies would include using flow structures to 'focus' particles into regions away from passing cars or surface treatments to capture small drops.

  19. Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilgen, A. K.; Buchmann, N.

    2009-11-01

    Water is an important resource for plant life. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of experimental drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Responses of community above-ground productivity to reduced precipitation input differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, vegetation carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation of management strategies will be needed, especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

  20. A Review of Climatic Controls on δ18o in Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau: Observations and Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, T.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Gao, J.; Risi, C. M.

    2014-12-01

    Located at the convergence of air masses between the westerlies and monsoon, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) undergoes complex water cycle processes, which need to be documented and understood through a combination of variant methodologies. The stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) in precipitation is an integrated tracer of the atmospheric processes and has been used worldwide. Since the 1990s, an intensive effort has been dedicated to studying precipitation isotopic composition at more than 20 stations in the TP. Based on these observations, we establish a database of precipitation δ18O and use different models to evaluate the climatic drivers of present-day precipitation δ18O over the TP. The spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation δ18O and their relationships with temperature and precipitation reveal three distinct domains, respectively associated with the influence of the westerlies (Northern TP), Indian monsoon (Southern TP) and transition in between. The seasonal patterns of precipitation δ18O are diverse in different domains. High-resolution atmospheric models equipped with stable isotopes capture the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation δ18O and their relationships with moisture transport from the westerlies and Indian monsoon. Only in the westerlies domain are atmospheric models able to represent qualitatively and quantitatively the relationships between climate and precipitation δ18O. More significant temperature effect exists when either the westerlies or Indian monsoon is the sole dominant atmospheric process. The observed and simulated altitude-δ18O relationships strongly depend on the season and the domain (monsoon or westerlies). Our results have crucial implications for the interpretation of the abundant stable isotope information derived from natural climatic archives over the TP such as ice cores, lake sediments or tree rings, and for the application of atmospheric simulations to quantifying paleo-climate and paleo

  1. Simulating the effects of ground-water withdrawals on streamflow in a precipitation-runoff model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zarriello, P.J.; Barlow, P.M.; Duda, P.B.

    2004-01-01

    Precipitation-runoff models are used to assess the effects of water use and management alternatives on streamflow. Often, ground-water withdrawals are a major water-use component that affect streamflow, but the ability of surface-water models to simulate ground-water withdrawals is limited. As part of a Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model developed to analyze the effect of ground-water and surface-water withdrawals on streamflow in the Ipswich River in northeastern Massachusetts, an analytical technique (STRMDEPL) was developed for calculating the effects of pumped wells on streamflow. STRMDEPL is a FORTRAN program based on two analytical solutions that solve equations for ground-water flow to a well completed in a semi-infinite, homogeneous, and isotropic aquifer in direct hydraulic connection to a fully penetrating stream. One analytical method calculates unimpeded flow at the stream-aquifer boundary and the other method calculates the resistance to flow caused by semipervious streambed and streambank material. The principle of superposition is used with these analytical equations to calculate time-varying streamflow depletions due to daily pumping. The HSPF model can readily incorporate streamflow depletions caused by a well or surface-water withdrawal, or by multiple wells or surface-water withdrawals, or both, as a combined time-varying outflow demand from affected channel reaches. These demands are stored as a time series in the Watershed Data Management (WDM) file. This time-series data is read into the model as an external source used to specify flow from the first outflow gate in the reach where these withdrawals are located. Although the STRMDEPL program can be run independently of the HSPF model, an extension was developed to run this program within GenScn, a scenario generator and graphical user interface developed for use with the HSPF model. This extension requires that actual pumping rates for each well be stored

  2. Detection of inhomogeneities in precipitation time series in Portugal using direct sequential simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribeiro, Sara; Caineta, Júlio; Costa, Ana Cristina; Henriques, Roberto; Soares, Amílcar

    2016-05-01

    Climate data homogenisation is of major importance in climate change monitoring, validation of weather forecasting, general circulation and regional atmospheric models, modelling of erosion, drought monitoring, among other studies of hydrological and environmental impacts. The reason is that non-climate factors can cause time series discontinuities which may hide the true climatic signal and patterns, thus potentially bias the conclusions of those studies. In the last two decades, many methods have been developed to identify and remove these inhomogeneities. One of those is based on a geostatistical simulation technique (DSS - direct sequential simulation), where local probability density functions (pdfs) are calculated at candidate monitoring stations using spatial and temporal neighbouring observations, which then are used for the detection of inhomogeneities. Such approach has been previously applied to detect inhomogeneities in four precipitation series (wet day count) from a network with 66 monitoring stations located in the southern region of Portugal (1980-2001). That study revealed promising results and the potential advantages of geostatistical techniques for inhomogeneity detection in climate time series. This work extends the case study presented before and investigates the application of the geostatistical stochastic approach to ten precipitation series that were previously classified as inhomogeneous by one of six absolute homogeneity tests (Mann-Kendall, Wald-Wolfowitz runs, Von Neumann ratio, Pettitt, Buishand range test, and standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) for a single break). Moreover, a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the number of simulated realisations which should be used to infer the local pdfs with more accuracy. Accordingly, the number of simulations per iteration was increased from 50 to 500, which resulted in a more representative local pdf. As in the previous study, the results are compared with those from the

  3. Assessing the applicability of WRF optimal parameters under the different precipitation simulations in the Greater Beijing Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di, Zhenhua; Duan, Qingyun; Wang, Chen; Ye, Aizhong; Miao, Chiyuan; Gong, Wei

    2017-05-01

    Forecasting skills of the complex weather and climate models have been improved by tuning the sensitive parameters that exert the greatest impact on simulated results based on more effective optimization methods. However, whether the optimal parameter values are still work when the model simulation conditions vary, which is a scientific problem deserving of study. In this study, a highly-effective optimization method, adaptive surrogate model-based optimization (ASMO), was firstly used to tune nine sensitive parameters from four physical parameterization schemes of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to obtain better summer precipitation forecasting over the Greater Beijing Area in China. Then, to assess the applicability of the optimal parameter values, simulation results from the WRF model with default and optimal parameter values were compared across precipitation events, boundary conditions, spatial scales, and physical processes in the Greater Beijing Area. The summer precipitation events from 6 years were used to calibrate and evaluate the optimal parameter values of WRF model. Three boundary data and two spatial resolutions were adopted to evaluate the superiority of the calibrated optimal parameters to default parameters under the WRF simulations with different boundary conditions and spatial resolutions, respectively. Physical interpretations of the optimal parameters indicating how to improve precipitation simulation results were also examined. All the results showed that the optimal parameters obtained by ASMO are superior to the default parameters for WRF simulations for predicting summer precipitation in the Greater Beijing Area because the optimal parameters are not constrained by specific precipitation events, boundary conditions, and spatial resolutions. The optimal values of the nine parameters were determined from 127 parameter samples using the ASMO method, which showed that the ASMO method is very highly-efficient for optimizing WRF

  4. Comparison between 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation methods for the simulation of a heavy rainfall case in central Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazzarella, Vincenzo; Maiello, Ida; Capozzi, Vincenzo; Budillon, Giorgio; Ferretti, Rossella

    2017-08-01

    This work aims to provide a comparison between three dimensional and four dimensional variational data assimilation methods (3D-Var and 4D-Var) for a heavy rainfall case in central Italy. To evaluate the impact of the assimilation of reflectivity and radial velocity acquired from Monte Midia Doppler radar into the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model, the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) is used.The two methods are compared for a heavy rainfall event that occurred in central Italy on 14 September 2012 during the first Special Observation Period (SOP1) of the HyMeX (HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment) campaign. This event, characterized by a deep low pressure system over the Tyrrhenian Sea, produced flash floods over the Marche and Abruzzo regions, where rainfall maxima reached more than 150 mm 24 h-1.To identify the best QPF, nine experiments are performed using 3D-Var and 4D-Var data assimilation techniques. All simulations are compared in terms of rainfall forecast and precipitation measured by the gauges through three statistical indicators: probability of detection (POD), critical success index (CSI) and false alarm ratio (FAR). The assimilation of conventional observations with 4D-Var method improves the QPF compared to 3D-Var. In addition, the use of radar measurements in 4D-Var simulations enhances the performances of statistical scores for higher rainfall thresholds.

  5. Application of a K-Nearest Neighbor Simulator for Seasonal Precipitation Prediction in a Semiarid Region with Complex Terrain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Wanli; Liu, Yubao; Descomes, Gael; Ge, Ming; Warner, Tom; Swerdlin, Scott; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Kunin, Pavel; Givati, Amir

    2010-05-01

    Seasonal precipitation prediction has significant societal and economic impact, particularly for arid and semiarid regions. Current seasonal predictions generally rely on general circulation models (GCMs), which have coarse resolution (~300km). The GCM forecasts provide overall guidance in terms of large and synoptic scale perspectives, but are lack of regional and local details and accuracy that are needed by hydrological applications and water resources planning and management. On the other hand, high-resolution (~10s km) limited-area models have their own issues for operational seasonal forecasting due to unavailability of reliable large-scale drivers and unaffordable computational costs. Thus statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques have emerged to overcome scale mismatch between GCM products and regional (and local) application needs. In this study, a K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) simulator is used to derive local precipitations based on NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) seasonal forecasts and historic rainfall observations. The KNN algorithm is an analog-type approach that queries days within a specified temporal window similar to a given weather feature vector in a GCM forecast. K nearest neighbors is then rank-weighted to derive daily precipitation with the historic observed precipitations. This study focuses on the semiarid area along the southeastern Mediterranean coast. This region is strongly influenced by the Mediterranean climate and complex terrain. Annual precipitation displays strong seasonality and spatial variability. Enhanced seasonal precipitation prediction with local details would benefit the regional hydrological service. Archived CFS seasonal forecasts (1981-2009, and up to 9 months ahead of the initials) are built as our database for weather pattern matching, and observed daily precipitations at stations within the region are compiled from different sources to minimize errors and missing in the observations. Four variables (500 h

  6. Slow and fast responses of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sillmann, Jana; Stjern, Camilla Weum; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.

    2017-06-01

    We are investigating the fast and slow responses of changes in mean and extreme precipitation to different climate forcing mechanisms, such as greenhouse gas and solar forcing, to understand whether rapid adjustments are important for extreme precipitation. To disentangle the effect of rapid adjustment to a given forcing on the overall change in extreme precipitation, we use a linear regression method that has been previously applied to mean precipitation. Equilibrium experiments with preindustrial CO2 concentrations and reduced solar constant were compared with a four times CO2 concentration experiment for 10 state-of-the-art climate models. We find that the two forcing mechanisms, greenhouse gases and solar, impose clearly different rapid adjustment signals in the mean precipitation, while such difference is difficult to discern for extreme precipitation due to large internal variability. In contrast to mean precipitation, changes in extreme precipitation scale with surface temperature trends and do not seem to depend on the forcing mechanism.

  7. Dislocation pinning effects induced by nano-precipitates during warm laser shock peening: Dislocation dynamic simulation and experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Yiliang; Ye, Chang; Gao, Huang; Kim, Bong-Joong; Suslov, Sergey; Stach, Eric A.; Cheng, Gary J.

    2011-07-01

    Warm laser shock peening (WLSP) is a new high strain rate surface strengthening process that has been demonstrated to significantly improve the fatigue performance of metallic components. This improvement is mainly due to the interaction of dislocations with highly dense nanoscale precipitates, which are generated by dynamic precipitation during the WLSP process. In this paper, the dislocation pinning effects induced by the nanoscale precipitates during WLSP are systematically studied. Aluminum alloy 6061 and AISI 4140 steel are selected as the materials with which to conduct WLSP experiments. Multiscale discrete dislocation dynamics (MDDD) simulation is conducted in order to investigate the interaction of dislocations and precipitates during the shock wave propagation. The evolution of dislocation structures during the shock wave propagation is studied. The dislocation structures after WLSP are characterized via transmission electron microscopy and are compared with the results of the MDDD simulation. The results show that nano-precipitates facilitate the generation of highly dense and uniformly distributed dislocation structures. The dislocation pinning effect is strongly affected by the density, size, and space distribution of nano-precipitates.

  8. High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation and snowpack over the US northern Rockies in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Geerts, B.; Liu, C.

    2015-12-01

    This work first examines the performance of a regional climate model in capturing orographic precipitation and snowpack dynamics in the northern US Rockies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run at a sufficiently fine resolution (4-km horizontal grid spacing), over a sub-continental domain driven by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), to examine WRF's ability to simulate the observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack dynamics. WRF retrospective simulations are being run over a 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL, providing precipitation rate and snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM, providing fine-scale monthly mean values of precipitation and temperature) are used for validation. The results show that WRF captures observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack build-up reasonably well. The second part of this work is in progress. A pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique is used to perturb the retrospective reanalysis with the anticipated change according to the consensus global model guidance under the CMIP5 "high emissions" (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the CCSM4. This technique preserves low-frequency general circulation patterns and the characteristics of storms entering the domain. The WRF model is rerun over 30 years centered on 2050 with perturbed initial and boundary conditions. The results will be used to examine the effect of climate variability and projected global warming on the statistical distributions of precipitation amounts and SWE in the studied domain.

  9. In situ TEM Study of G-phase Precipitates under Heavy Ion Irradiation in CF8 Cast Austenitic Stainless Steel

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, Wei-Ying; Li, Meimei; Zhang, Xuan; Kirk, Marquis A.; Baldo, Peter M.; Lian, Taingan

    2015-09-01

    Thermally-aged cast austenitic stainless steels (CASS) CF8 was irradiated with 1 MeV Kr ions at 300, 350 and 400°C to 1.88x10^15 ions/cm2 (~3 dpa) at the IVEM-Tandem Facility at the Argonne National Laboratory. Before irradiation, the distribution of G-phase precipitates in the ferrite showed strong spatial variations, and both their size and density were affected by the ferrite-austenite phase boundary and presence of M23C6 carbides. Under 300°C irradiation, in-situ TEM observation showed G-phase precipitates were relatively unchanged in the vicinity of the phase boundary M23C6 carbides, while the density of G-phase precipitates increased with increasing dose within the ferrite matrix. Coarsening of G-phase precipitates was observed in the vicinity of phase boundary M23C6 carbides at 350°C and 400°C.

  10. Modulation of Cloud Phase, Precipitation and Radiation by Ice Nuclei Perturbations in High Resolution Model Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paukert, M.; Hoose, C.

    2015-12-01

    The distribution of cloud phase determines a multitude of cloud properties, such as albedo, precipitation and temporal evolution. The crucial role of primary ice formation has been recognized decades ago, yet only in the last years our knowledge has reached a level that allows for approximate estimations of the aerosol-dependent effect of ice nucleation in high resolution cloud simulations. However, besides primary formation of cloud particles, also their thermodynamic trajectories as well as particle-particle interactions are determinants of the cloud phase. Although the conversion of liquid to ice in the mixed-phase regime is unidirectional, a perturbation in the primary ice formation (with increased aerosol concentrations as a trigger) does not necessarily yield higher ice fractions. This can be attributed to the modified efficiencies of depositional particle growth, liquid-ice-collisions and particle sedimentation. Consequently a modified mixed-phase regime impacts both warm (T>0°C) and cold (T<-40°C) parts of the atmosphere by sedimentation and vertical advection, respectively. Our study is motivated by the question how the liquid-ice partitioning is modulated by perturbed ice nuclei concentrations. By suppressing the feedback of microphysical perturbations on the model dynamics we are able to extract the microphysical effects. We define different microphysical regimes based on liquid and ice mass changes in order to analyze the processes which have led to those regimes. We find that conversion via the vapor phase is dominant only in distinct temperature regimes, while liquid mass changes are often linked to riming-dominated regimes, and sedimentation efficiencies make an important contribution to ice mass changes which finally determine the surface precipitation via melting. For our case of deep convection, cloud albedo is highly sensitive to the amount of small droplets reaching the homogeneous freezing level. We investigated simulations of three

  11. Use NU-WRF and GCE Model to Simulate the Precipitation Processes During MC3E Campaign

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wu, Di; Matsui, Toshi; Li, Xiaowen; Zeng, Xiping; Peter-Lidard, Christa; Hou, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    One of major CRM approaches to studying precipitation processes is sometimes referred to as "cloud ensemble modeling". This approach allows many clouds of various sizes and stages of their lifecycles to be present at any given simulation time. Large-scale effects derived from observations are imposed into CRMs as forcing, and cyclic lateral boundaries are used. The advantage of this approach is that model results in terms of rainfall and QI and Q2 usually are in good agreement with observations. In addition, the model results provide cloud statistics that represent different types of clouds/cloud systems during their lifetime (life cycle). The large-scale forcing derived from MC3EI will be used to drive GCE model simulations. The model-simulated results will be compared with observations from MC3E. These GCE model-simulated datasets are especially valuable for LH algorithm developers. In addition, the regional scale model with very high-resolution, NASA Unified WRF is also used to real time forecast during the MC3E campaign to ensure that the precipitation and other meteorological forecasts are available to the flight planning team and to interpret the forecast results in terms of proposed flight scenarios. Post Mission simulations are conducted to examine the sensitivity of initial and lateral boundary conditions to cloud and precipitation processes and rainfall. We will compare model results in terms of precipitation and surface rainfall using GCE model and NU-WRF

  12. Separation of aromatic precipitates from simulated high level radioactive waste by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction

    SciTech Connect

    Young, S.R.; Shah, H.B.; Carter, J.T.

    1991-01-01

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the SRS will be the United States' first facility to process High Level radioactive Waste (HLW) into a borosilicate glass matrix. The removal of aromatic precipitates by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction will be a key step in the processing of the HLW. This step, titled the Precipitate Hydrolysis Process, has been demonstrated by the Savannah River Laboratory with the Precipitate Hydrolysis Experimental Facility (PHEF). The mission of the PHEF is to demonstrate processing of simulated high level radioactive waste which contains tetraphenylborate precipitates and nitrite. Reduction of nitrite by hydroxylamine nitrate and hydrolysis of the tetraphenylborate by formic acid is discussed. Gaseous production, which is primarily benzene, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, has been quantified. Production of high-boiling organic compounds and the accumulation of these organic compounds within the process are addressed.

  13. Separation of aromatic precipitates from simulated high level radioactive waste by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction

    SciTech Connect

    Young, S.R.; Shah, H.B.; Carter, J.T.

    1991-12-31

    The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the SRS will be the United States` first facility to process High Level radioactive Waste (HLW) into a borosilicate glass matrix. The removal of aromatic precipitates by hydrolysis, evaporation and liquid-liquid extraction will be a key step in the processing of the HLW. This step, titled the Precipitate Hydrolysis Process, has been demonstrated by the Savannah River Laboratory with the Precipitate Hydrolysis Experimental Facility (PHEF). The mission of the PHEF is to demonstrate processing of simulated high level radioactive waste which contains tetraphenylborate precipitates and nitrite. Reduction of nitrite by hydroxylamine nitrate and hydrolysis of the tetraphenylborate by formic acid is discussed. Gaseous production, which is primarily benzene, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide, has been quantified. Production of high-boiling organic compounds and the accumulation of these organic compounds within the process are addressed.

  14. Modelling and simulation of heavy gas dispersion on the basis of modifications in plume path theory.

    PubMed

    Khan, F I; Abbasi, S A

    2000-12-30

    An analytical model for heavy gas dispersion based on the modifications in plume path theory has been developed. The model takes into account the variations in temperature, density, and specific heat during the movement of heavy gas plume. The model has been tested for three hazardous gases - chlorine, natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas. The results have been compared with the recently generated experimental data as also with the outputs of other models. A good agreement is observed qualitatively as well as quantitatively. A study has also been carried out to simulate the effect of the wind speed, density of the gas, and venting speed on dispersion. Based on the simulation study a set of empirical equations has been developed. The equations are validated by theoretical as well as experimental studies.

  15. Simulation of water movement and isoproturon behaviour in a heavy clay soil using the MACRO model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Besien, T. J.; Jarvis, N. J.; Williams, R. J.

    In this paper, the dual-porosity MACRO model has been used to investigate methods of reducing leaching of isoproturon from a structured heavy clay soil. The MACRO model was applied to a pesticide leaching data-set generated from a plot scale experiment on a heavy clay soil at the Oxford University Farm, Wytham, England. The field drain was found to be the most important outflow from the plot in terms of pesticide removal. Therefore, this modelling exercise concentrated on simulating field drain flow. With calibration of field-saturated and micropore saturated hydraulic conductivity, the drain flow hydrographs were simulated during extended periods of above average rainfall, with both the hydrograph shape and peak flows agreeing well. Over the whole field season, the observed drain flow water budget was well simulated. However, the first and second drain flow events after pesticide application were not simulated satisfactorily. This is believed to be due to a poor simulation of evapotranspiration during a period of low rainfall around the pesticide application day. Apart from an initial rapid drop in the observed isoproturon soil residue, the model simulated isoproturon residues during the 100 days after pesticide application reasonably well. Finally, the calibrated model was used to show that changes in agricultural practice (deep ploughing, creating fine consolidated seed beds and organic matter applications) could potentially reduce pesticide leaching to surface waters by up to 60%.

  16. Response of temperate grasslands at different altitudes to simulated summer drought differed but scaled with annual precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilgen, A. K.; Buchmann, N.

    2009-05-01

    Water is an important resource for plant live. Since climate scenarios for Switzerland predict an average reduction of 20% in summer precipitation until 2070, understanding ecosystem responses to water shortage, e.g. in terms of plant productivity, is of major concern. Thus, we tested the effects of simulated summer drought on three managed grasslands along an altitudinal gradient in Switzerland from 2005 to 2007, representing typical management intensities at the respective altitude. We assessed the effects of drought on above- and below-ground productivity, stand structure (LAI and vegetation height) and resource use (carbon and water). Drought responses of community above-ground productivity differed among the three sites but scaled positively with total annual precipitation at the sites (R2=0.85). Annual community above-ground biomass productivity was significantly reduced by summer drought at the alpine site receiving the least amount of annual precipitation, while no significant decrease (rather an increase) was observed at the pre-alpine site receiving highest precipitation amounts in all three years. At the lowland site (intermediate precipitation sums), biomass productivity significantly decreased in response to drought only in the third year, after showing increased abundance of a drought tolerant weed species in the second year. No significant change in below-ground biomass productivity was observed at any of the sites in response to simulated summer drought. However, community carbon isotope ratios increased under drought conditions, indicating an increase in water use efficiency. We conclude that there is no general drought response of Swiss grasslands, but that sites with lower annual precipitation seem to be more vulnerable to summer drought than sites with higher annual precipitation, and thus site-specific adaptation measures will be needed especially in regions with low annual precipitation.

  17. Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, S. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Ferreira, J.; Nunes, J. P.; Keizer, J. J.; Rocha, A.

    2013-10-01

    This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with Advanced Research) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation. The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments. Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations

  18. Climatological studies on precipitation features and large-scale atmospheric fields on the heavy rainfall days in the eastern part of Japan from the Baiu to midsummer season

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsumoto, Kengo; Kato, Kuranoshin; Otani, Kazuo

    2017-04-01

    In East Asia the significant subtropical frontal zone called the Meiyu (in China) / Baiu (in Japan) appears in early summer (just before the midsummer) and the huge rainfall is brought due to the frequent appearance of the "heavy rainfall days" (referred to as HRDs hereafter) mainly in that western part. On the other hand, large-scale fields around the front in eastern Japan is rather different from that in western Japan but the total precipitation in the eastern Japan is still considerable compared to that in the other midlatitude regions. Thus, it is also interesting to examine how the rainfall characteristics and large-scale atmospheric fields on HRDs (with more than 50 mm/day) in the eastern Japan in the mature stage of the Baiu season (16 June 15 July), together with those in midsummer (1 31 August). Based on such scientific background, further analyses were performed in this study mainly with the daily and the hourly precipitation data and the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis date from 1971 to 2010, succeeding to our previous results (e.g., EGU2015). As reported at EGU2014 and 2015, about half of HRDs at Tokyo (eastern Japan) were related to the typhoon even in the Baiu season. Interestingly, half of HRDs were characterized by the large contribution of moderate rain less than 10 mm/h. While, the precipitation on HRDs at Tokyo in midsummer was mainly brought by the intense rainfall with more than 10 mm/h, in association with the typhoons. In the present study, we examined the composite meridional structure of the rainfall area along 140E. In the pattern only associated with a typhoons in the Baiu season (Pattern A), the heavy rainfall area (more than 50 mm/day) with large contribution of the intense rain (stronger than 10 mm/h) showed rather wide meridional extension. The area was characterized by the duration of the intermittent enhancement of the rainfall. In the pattern associated with a typhoon and a front (Pattern B), while the contribution ratio of the rainfall

  19. Molecular dynamics simulations of ion range profiles for heavy ions in light targets

    SciTech Connect

    Lan, Chune; Xue, Jianming; Zhang, Yanwen; Morris, James R.; Zhu, Zihua; Gao, Yuan; Wang, Yugang; Yan, Sha; Weber, William J.

    2012-09-01

    The determination of stopping powers for slow heavy ions in targets containing light elements is important to accurately describe ion-solid interactions, evaluate ion irradiation effects and predict ion ranges for device fabrication and nuclear applications. Recently, discrepancies of up to 40% between the experimental results and SRIM (Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter) predictions of ion ranges for heavy ions with medium and low energies (<25 keV/nucleon) in light elemental targets have been reported. The longer experimental ion ranges indicate that the stopping powers used in the SRIM code are overestimated. Here, a molecular dynamics simulation scheme is developed to calculate the ion ranges of heavy ions in light elemental targets. Electronic stopping powers generated from both a reciprocity approach and the SRIM code are used to investigate the influence of electronic stopping on ion range profiles. The ion range profiles for Au and Pb ions in SiC and Er ions in Si, with energies between 20 and 5250 keV, are simulated. The simulation results show that the depth profiles of implanted ions are deeper and in better agreement with the experiments when using the electronic stopping power values derived from the reciprocity approach. These results indicate that the origin of the discrepancy in ion ranges between experimental results and SRIM predictions in the low energy region may be an overestimation of the electronic stopping powers used in SRIM.

  20. Molecular dynamics simulations of ion range profiles for heavy ions in light targets

    SciTech Connect

    Lan, Chune; Xue, Jianming; Zhang, Yanwen; Morris, James R; Zhu, Zihua; Gao, Yuan; Wang, Yugang; Yan, Sha; Weber, William J

    2012-01-01

    The determination of stopping powers for slow heavy ions in targets containing light elements is important to accurately describe ion-solid interactions, evaluate ion irradiation effects and predict ion ranges for device fabrication and nuclear applications. Recently, discrepancies of up to 40% between the experimental results and SRIM (Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter) predictions of ion ranges for heavy ions with medium and low energies (< {approx} 25 keV/nucleon) in light elemental targets have been reported. The longer experimental ion ranges indicate that the stopping powers used in the SRIM code are overestimated. Here, a molecular dynamics simulation scheme is developed to calculate the ion ranges of heavy ions in light elemental targets. Electronic stopping powers generated from both a reciprocity approach and the SRIM code are used to investigate the influence of electronic stopping on ion range profiles. The ion range profiles for Au and Pb ions in SiC and Er ions in Si, with energies between 20 and 5250 keV, are simulated. The simulation results show that the depth profiles of implanted ions are deeper and in better agreement with the experiments when using the electronic stopping power values derived from the reciprocity approach. These results indicate that the origin of the discrepancy in ion ranges between experimental results and SRIM predictions in the low energy region may be an overestimation of the electronic stopping powers used in SRIM.

  1. The Muted Precipitation Increase in Global Warming Simulations: A Surface Evaporation Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richter, I.; Xie, S.; Ma, J.

    2008-12-01

    Both observations and climate simulations suggest an increase of atmospheric moisture content by 7% per degree surface warming. The simulated precipitation, on the other hand, increases at a much slower rate. This muted response of the hydrological cycle to increased greenhouse gas forcing is investigated from a surface evaporation perspective, using simulations participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) under the A1B forcing scenario. A 90-year analysis of surface evaporation based on a standard bulk formula reveals that the following atmospheric changes act to slow down the increase in surface evaporation over ice free oceans: surface relative humidity increases by 1.0%, surface stability, as measured by air-sea temperature difference, increases by 0.2 K, and surface wind speed decreases by 0.02 m/s. As a result of these changes, surface evaporation increases by only 2% per Kelvin of surface wa