Calibration of sea ice dynamic parameters in an ocean-sea ice model using an ensemble Kalman filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massonnet, F.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T.; Counillon, F.

2014-07-01

The choice of parameter values is crucial in the course of sea ice model development, since parameters largely affect the modeled mean sea ice state. Manual tuning of parameters will soon become impractical, as sea ice models will likely include more parameters to calibrate, leading to an exponential increase of the number of possible combinations to test. Objective and automatic methods for parameter calibration are thus progressively called on to replace the traditional heuristic, "trial-and-error" recipes. Here a method for calibration of parameters based on the ensemble Kalman filter is implemented, tested and validated in the ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM3. Three dynamic parameters are calibrated: the ice strength parameter P*, the ocean-sea ice drag parameter Cw, and the atmosphere-sea ice drag parameter Ca. In twin, perfect-model experiments, the default parameter values are retrieved within 1 year of simulation. Using 2007-2012 real sea ice drift data, the calibration of the ice strength parameter P* and the oceanic drag parameter Cw improves clearly the Arctic sea ice drift properties. It is found that the estimation of the atmospheric drag Ca is not necessary if P* and Cw are already estimated. The large reduction in the sea ice speed bias with calibrated parameters comes with a slight overestimation of the winter sea ice areal export through Fram Strait and a slight improvement in the sea ice thickness distribution. Overall, the estimation of parameters with the ensemble Kalman filter represents an encouraging alternative to manual tuning for ocean-sea ice models.

Model for the design of distributed data bases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ram, S.

This research focuses on developing a model to solve the File Allocation Problem (FAP). The model integrates two major design issues, namely Concurrently Control and Data Distribution. The central node locking mechanism is incorporated in developing a nonlinear integer programming model. Two solution algorithms are proposed, one of which was implemented in FORTRAN.V. The allocation of data bases and programs are examined using this heuristic. Several decision rules were also formulated based on the results of the heuristic. A second more comprehensive heuristic was proposed, based on the knapsack problem. The development and implementation of this algorithm has been leftmore » as a topic for future research.« less

A two-stage stochastic rule-based model to determine pre-assembly buffer content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gunay, Elif Elcin; Kula, Ufuk

2018-01-01

This study considers instant decision-making needs of the automobile manufactures for resequencing vehicles before final assembly (FA). We propose a rule-based two-stage stochastic model to determine the number of spare vehicles that should be kept in the pre-assembly buffer to restore the altered sequence due to paint defects and upstream department constraints. First stage of the model decides the spare vehicle quantities, where the second stage model recovers the scrambled sequence respect to pre-defined rules. The problem is solved by sample average approximation (SAA) algorithm. We conduct a numerical study to compare the solutions of heuristic model with optimal ones and provide following insights: (i) as the mismatch between paint entrance and scheduled sequence decreases, the rule-based heuristic model recovers the scrambled sequence as good as the optimal resequencing model, (ii) the rule-based model is more sensitive to the mismatch between the paint entrance and scheduled sequences for recovering the scrambled sequence, (iii) as the defect rate increases, the difference in recovery effectiveness between rule-based heuristic and optimal solutions increases, (iv) as buffer capacity increases, the recovery effectiveness of the optimization model outperforms heuristic model, (v) as expected the rule-based model holds more inventory than the optimization model.

Progress towards modeling tokamak boundary plasma turbulence and understanding its role in setting divertor heat flux widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Bin

2017-10-01

QCMs (quasi-coherent modes) are well characterized in the edge of Alcator C-Mod, when operating in the Enhanced Dα (EDA) H-mode, a promising alternative regime for ELM (edge localized modes) suppressed operation. To improve the understanding of the physics behind the QCMs, three typical C-Mod EDA H-Mode discharges are simulated by BOUT + + using a six-field two-fluid model (based on the Braginskii equations). The simulated characteristics of the frequency versus wave number spectra of the modes is in reasonable agreement with phase contrast imaging data. The key simulation results are: 1) Linear spectrum analysis and the nonlinear phase relationship indicate the dominance of resistive-ballooning modes and drift-Alfven wave instabilities; 2) QCMs originate inside the separatrix; (3) magnetic flutter causes the mode spreading into the SOL; 4) the boundary electric field Er changes the turbulent characteristics of the QCMs and controls edge transport and the divertor heat flux width; 5) the magnitude of the divertor heat flux depends on the physics models, such as sources and sinks, sheath boundary conditions, and parallel heat flux limiting coefficient. The BOUT + + simulations have also been performed for inter-ELM periods of DIII-D and EAST discharges, and similar quasi-coherent modes have been found. The parallel electron heat fluxes projected onto the target from these BOUT + + simulations follow the experimental heat flux width scaling, in particular the inverse dependence of the width on the poloidal magnetic field with an outlier. Further turbulence statistics analysis shows that the blobs are generated near the pedestal peak gradient region inside the separatrix and contribute to the transport of the particle and heat in the SOL region. To understand the Goldston heuristic drift-based model, results will also be presented from self-consistent transport simulations with the electric and magnetic drifts in BOUT + + and with the sheath potential included in the SOL. Work supported by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. This work was also supported by US DOE Grant DE-FC02-99ER54512, using Alcator C-Mod, a DOE Office of Science User Facility, and under the auspices of the CSC (No. 201506340019).

A Heuristic Decision Making Model to Mitigate Adverse Consequences in a Network Centric Warfare/Sense and Respond System

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-05-01

made. 4. Do military decision makers identify / analyze adverse consequences presently? Few do based on this research and most don’t do it effectively ...A HEURISTIC DECISION MAKING MODEL TO MITIGATE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES IN A NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE / SENSE AND RESPOND SYSTEM...ENS/05-01 A HEURISTIC DECISION MAKING MODEL TO MITIGATE ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES IN A NETWORK CENTRIC WARFARE / SENSE AND RESPOND SYSTEM

Sequence-based heuristics for faster annotation of non-coding RNA families.

PubMed

Weinberg, Zasha; Ruzzo, Walter L

2006-01-01

Non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs) are functional RNA molecules that do not code for proteins. Covariance Models (CMs) are a useful statistical tool to find new members of an ncRNA gene family in a large genome database, using both sequence and, importantly, RNA secondary structure information. Unfortunately, CM searches are extremely slow. Previously, we created rigorous filters, which provably sacrifice none of a CM's accuracy, while making searches significantly faster for virtually all ncRNA families. However, these rigorous filters make searches slower than heuristics could be. In this paper we introduce profile HMM-based heuristic filters. We show that their accuracy is usually superior to heuristics based on BLAST. Moreover, we compared our heuristics with those used in tRNAscan-SE, whose heuristics incorporate a significant amount of work specific to tRNAs, where our heuristics are generic to any ncRNA. Performance was roughly comparable, so we expect that our heuristics provide a high-quality solution that--unlike family-specific solutions--can scale to hundreds of ncRNA families. The source code is available under GNU Public License at the supplementary web site.

What is behind the priority heuristic? A mathematical analysis and comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006).

PubMed

Rieger, Marc Oliver; Wang, Mei

2008-01-01

Comments on the article by E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig. The authors discuss the priority heuristic, a recent model for decisions under risk. They reanalyze the experimental validity of this approach and discuss how these results compare with cumulative prospect theory, the currently most established model in behavioral economics. They also discuss how general models for decisions under risk based on a heuristic approach can be understood mathematically to gain some insight in their limitations. They finally consider whether the priority heuristic model can lead to some understanding of the decision process of individuals or whether it is better seen as an as-if model. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Testing process predictions of models of risky choice: a quantitative model comparison approach

PubMed Central

Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brandstätter, Eduard

2013-01-01

This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or non-linear functions thereof) and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models). Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models). We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up) and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise). In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly); acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988) called “similarity.” In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies. PMID:24151472

Analysis of a multi-machine database on divertor heat fluxesa)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makowski, M. A.; Elder, D.; Gray, T. K.; LaBombard, B.; Lasnier, C. J.; Leonard, A. W.; Maingi, R.; Osborne, T. H.; Stangeby, P. C.; Terry, J. L.; Watkins, J.

2012-05-01

A coordinated effort to measure divertor heat flux characteristics in fully attached, similarly shaped H-mode plasmas on C-Mod, DIII-D, and NSTX was carried out in 2010 in order to construct a predictive scaling relation applicable to next step devices including ITER, FNSF, and DEMO. Few published scaling laws are available and those that have been published were obtained under widely varying conditions and divertor geometries, leading to conflicting predictions for this critically important quantity. This study was designed to overcome these deficiencies. Analysis of the combined data set reveals that the primary dependence of the parallel heat flux width is robustly inverse with Ip, which all three tokamaks independently demonstrate. An improved Thomson scattering system on DIII-D has yielded very accurate scrape off layer (SOL) profile measurements from which tests of parallel transport models have been made. It is found that a flux-limited model agrees best with the data at all collisionalities, while a Spitzer resistivity model agrees at higher collisionality where it is more valid. The SOL profile measurements and divertor heat flux scaling are consistent with a heuristic drift based model as well as a critical gradient model.

How Monte Carlo heuristics aid to identify the physical processes of drug release kinetics.

PubMed

Lecca, Paola

2018-01-01

We implement a Monte Carlo heuristic algorithm to model drug release from a solid dosage form. We show that with Monte Carlo simulations it is possible to identify and explain the causes of the unsatisfactory predictive power of current drug release models. It is well known that the power-law, the exponential models, as well as those derived from or inspired by them accurately reproduce only the first 60% of the release curve of a drug from a dosage form. In this study, by using Monte Carlo simulation approaches, we show that these models fit quite accurately almost the entire release profile when the release kinetics is not governed by the coexistence of different physico-chemical mechanisms. We show that the accuracy of the traditional models are comparable with those of Monte Carlo heuristics when these heuristics approximate and oversimply the phenomenology of drug release. This observation suggests to develop and use novel Monte Carlo simulation heuristics able to describe the complexity of the release kinetics, and consequently to generate data more similar to those observed in real experiments. Implementing Monte Carlo simulation heuristics of the drug release phenomenology may be much straightforward and efficient than hypothesizing and implementing from scratch complex mathematical models of the physical processes involved in drug release. Identifying and understanding through simulation heuristics what processes of this phenomenology reproduce the observed data and then formalize them in mathematics may allow avoiding time-consuming, trial-error based regression procedures. Three bullet points, highlighting the customization of the procedure. •An efficient heuristics based on Monte Carlo methods for simulating drug release from solid dosage form encodes is presented. It specifies the model of the physical process in a simple but accurate way in the formula of the Monte Carlo Micro Step (MCS) time interval.•Given the experimentally observed curve of drug release, we point out how Monte Carlo heuristics can be integrated in an evolutionary algorithmic approach to infer the mode of MCS best fitting the observed data, and thus the observed release kinetics.•The software implementing the method is written in R language, the free most used language in the bioinformaticians community.

Inhibitory mechanism of the matching heuristic in syllogistic reasoning.

PubMed

Tse, Ping Ping; Moreno Ríos, Sergio; García-Madruga, Juan Antonio; Bajo Molina, María Teresa

2014-11-01

A number of heuristic-based hypotheses have been proposed to explain how people solve syllogisms with automatic processes. In particular, the matching heuristic employs the congruency of the quantifiers in a syllogism—by matching the quantifier of the conclusion with those of the two premises. When the heuristic leads to an invalid conclusion, successful solving of these conflict problems requires the inhibition of automatic heuristic processing. Accordingly, if the automatic processing were based on processing the set of quantifiers, no semantic contents would be inhibited. The mental model theory, however, suggests that people reason using mental models, which always involves semantic processing. Therefore, whatever inhibition occurs in the processing implies the inhibition of the semantic contents. We manipulated the validity of the syllogism and the congruency of the quantifier of its conclusion with those of the two premises according to the matching heuristic. A subsequent lexical decision task (LDT) with related words in the conclusion was used to test any inhibition of the semantic contents after each syllogistic evaluation trial. In the LDT, the facilitation effect of semantic priming diminished after correctly solved conflict syllogisms (match-invalid or mismatch-valid), but was intact after no-conflict syllogisms. The results suggest the involvement of an inhibitory mechanism of semantic contents in syllogistic reasoning when there is a conflict between the output of the syntactic heuristic and actual validity. Our results do not support a uniquely syntactic process of syllogistic reasoning but fit with the predictions based on mental model theory. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three hybridization models based on local search scheme for job shop scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balbi Fraga, Tatiana

2015-05-01

This work presents three different hybridization models based on the general schema of Local Search Heuristics, named Hybrid Successive Application, Hybrid Neighborhood, and Hybrid Improved Neighborhood. Despite similar approaches might have already been presented in the literature in other contexts, in this work these models are applied to analyzes the solution of the job shop scheduling problem, with the heuristics Taboo Search and Particle Swarm Optimization. Besides, we investigate some aspects that must be considered in order to achieve better solutions than those obtained by the original heuristics. The results demonstrate that the algorithms derived from these three hybrid models are more robust than the original algorithms and able to get better results than those found by the single Taboo Search.

Heuristic for Critical Machine Based a Lot Streaming for Two-Stage Hybrid Production Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, P.; Saravanan, R.; Chandrasekaran, M.; Pugazhenthi, R.

2017-03-01

Lot streaming in Hybrid flowshop [HFS] is encountered in many real world problems. This paper deals with a heuristic approach for Lot streaming based on critical machine consideration for a two stage Hybrid Flowshop. The first stage has two identical parallel machines and the second stage has only one machine. In the second stage machine is considered as a critical by valid reasons these kind of problems is known as NP hard. A mathematical model developed for the selected problem. The simulation modelling and analysis were carried out in Extend V6 software. The heuristic developed for obtaining optimal lot streaming schedule. The eleven cases of lot streaming were considered. The proposed heuristic was verified and validated by real time simulation experiments. All possible lot streaming strategies and possible sequence under each lot streaming strategy were simulated and examined. The heuristic consistently yielded optimal schedule consistently in all eleven cases. The identification procedure for select best lot streaming strategy was suggested.

Lognormal-like statistics of a stochastic squeeze process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shapira, Dekel; Cohen, Doron

2017-10-01

We analyze the full statistics of a stochastic squeeze process. The model's two parameters are the bare stretching rate w and the angular diffusion coefficient D . We carry out an exact analysis to determine the drift and the diffusion coefficient of log(r ) , where r is the radial coordinate. The results go beyond the heuristic lognormal description that is implied by the central limit theorem. Contrary to the common "quantum Zeno" approximation, the radial diffusion is not simply Dr=(1 /8 ) w2/D but has a nonmonotonic dependence on w /D . Furthermore, the calculation of the radial moments is dominated by the far non-Gaussian tails of the log(r ) distribution.

The probability heuristics model of syllogistic reasoning.

PubMed

Chater, N; Oaksford, M

1999-03-01

A probability heuristic model (PHM) for syllogistic reasoning is proposed. An informational ordering over quantified statements suggests simple probability based heuristics for syllogistic reasoning. The most important is the "min-heuristic": choose the type of the least informative premise as the type of the conclusion. The rationality of this heuristic is confirmed by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning which treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. A meta-analysis of past experiments reveals close fits with PHM. PHM also compares favorably with alternative accounts, including mental logics, mental models, and deduction as verbal reasoning. Crucially, PHM extends naturally to generalized quantifiers, such as Most and Few, which have not been characterized logically and are, consequently, beyond the scope of current mental logic and mental model theories. Two experiments confirm the novel predictions of PHM when generalized quantifiers are used in syllogistic arguments. PHM suggests that syllogistic reasoning performance may be determined by simple but rational informational strategies justified by probability theory rather than by logic. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis.

PubMed

Tashkova, Katerina; Korošec, Peter; Silc, Jurij; Todorovski, Ljupčo; Džeroski, Sašo

2011-10-11

We address the task of parameter estimation in models of the dynamics of biological systems based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from measured data, where the models are typically non-linear and have many parameters, the measurements are imperfect due to noise, and the studied system can often be only partially observed. A representative task is to estimate the parameters in a model of the dynamics of endocytosis, i.e., endosome maturation, reflected in a cut-out switch transition between the Rab5 and Rab7 domain protein concentrations, from experimental measurements of these concentrations. The general parameter estimation task and the specific instance considered here are challenging optimization problems, calling for the use of advanced meta-heuristic optimization methods, such as evolutionary or swarm-based methods. We apply three global-search meta-heuristic algorithms for numerical optimization, i.e., differential ant-stigmergy algorithm (DASA), particle-swarm optimization (PSO), and differential evolution (DE), as well as a local-search derivative-based algorithm 717 (A717) to the task of estimating parameters in ODEs. We evaluate their performance on the considered representative task along a number of metrics, including the quality of reconstructing the system output and the complete dynamics, as well as the speed of convergence, both on real-experimental data and on artificial pseudo-experimental data with varying amounts of noise. We compare the four optimization methods under a range of observation scenarios, where data of different completeness and accuracy of interpretation are given as input. Overall, the global meta-heuristic methods (DASA, PSO, and DE) clearly and significantly outperform the local derivative-based method (A717). Among the three meta-heuristics, differential evolution (DE) performs best in terms of the objective function, i.e., reconstructing the output, and in terms of convergence. These results hold for both real and artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology.

Parameter estimation with bio-inspired meta-heuristic optimization: modeling the dynamics of endocytosis

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background We address the task of parameter estimation in models of the dynamics of biological systems based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from measured data, where the models are typically non-linear and have many parameters, the measurements are imperfect due to noise, and the studied system can often be only partially observed. A representative task is to estimate the parameters in a model of the dynamics of endocytosis, i.e., endosome maturation, reflected in a cut-out switch transition between the Rab5 and Rab7 domain protein concentrations, from experimental measurements of these concentrations. The general parameter estimation task and the specific instance considered here are challenging optimization problems, calling for the use of advanced meta-heuristic optimization methods, such as evolutionary or swarm-based methods. Results We apply three global-search meta-heuristic algorithms for numerical optimization, i.e., differential ant-stigmergy algorithm (DASA), particle-swarm optimization (PSO), and differential evolution (DE), as well as a local-search derivative-based algorithm 717 (A717) to the task of estimating parameters in ODEs. We evaluate their performance on the considered representative task along a number of metrics, including the quality of reconstructing the system output and the complete dynamics, as well as the speed of convergence, both on real-experimental data and on artificial pseudo-experimental data with varying amounts of noise. We compare the four optimization methods under a range of observation scenarios, where data of different completeness and accuracy of interpretation are given as input. Conclusions Overall, the global meta-heuristic methods (DASA, PSO, and DE) clearly and significantly outperform the local derivative-based method (A717). Among the three meta-heuristics, differential evolution (DE) performs best in terms of the objective function, i.e., reconstructing the output, and in terms of convergence. These results hold for both real and artificial data, for all observability scenarios considered, and for all amounts of noise added to the artificial data. In sum, the meta-heuristic methods considered are suitable for estimating the parameters in the ODE model of the dynamics of endocytosis under a range of conditions: With the model and conditions being representative of parameter estimation tasks in ODE models of biochemical systems, our results clearly highlight the promise of bio-inspired meta-heuristic methods for parameter estimation in dynamic system models within system biology. PMID:21989196

Community-aware task allocation for social networked multiagent systems.

PubMed

Wang, Wanyuan; Jiang, Yichuan

2014-09-01

In this paper, we propose a novel community-aware task allocation model for social networked multiagent systems (SN-MASs), where the agent' cooperation domain is constrained in community and each agent can negotiate only with its intracommunity member agents. Under such community-aware scenarios, we prove that it remains NP-hard to maximize system overall profit. To solve this problem effectively, we present a heuristic algorithm that is composed of three phases: 1) task selection: select the desirable task to be allocated preferentially; 2) allocation to community: allocate the selected task to communities based on a significant task-first heuristics; and 3) allocation to agent: negotiate resources for the selected task based on a nonoverlap agent-first and breadth-first resource negotiation mechanism. Through the theoretical analyses and experiments, the advantages of our presented heuristic algorithm and community-aware task allocation model are validated. 1) Our presented heuristic algorithm performs very closely to the benchmark exponential brute-force optimal algorithm and the network flow-based greedy algorithm in terms of system overall profit in small-scale applications. Moreover, in the large-scale applications, the presented heuristic algorithm achieves approximately the same overall system profit, but significantly reduces the computational load compared with the greedy algorithm. 2) Our presented community-aware task allocation model reduces the system communication cost compared with the previous global-aware task allocation model and improves the system overall profit greatly compared with the previous local neighbor-aware task allocation model.

Analysis of edge stability for models of heat flux width

DOE PAGES

Makowski, Michael A.; Lasnier, Charles J.; Leonard, Anthony W.; ...

2017-05-12

Detailed measurements of the n e, and T e, and T i profiles in the vicinity of the separatrix of ELMing H-mode discharges have been used to examine plasma stability at the extreme edge of the plasma and assess stability dependent models of the heat flux width. The results are strongly contrary to the critical gradient model, which posits that a ballooning instability determines a gradient scale length related to the heat flux width. The results of this analysis are not sensitive to the choice of location to evaluate stability. Significantly, it is also found that the results are completelymore » consistent with the heuristic drift model for the heat flux width. Here the edge pressure gradient scales with plasma density and is proportional to the pressure gradient inferred from the equilibrium in accordance with the predictions of that theory.« less

The Memory State Heuristic: A Formal Model Based on Repeated Recognition Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

2017-01-01

The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e.,…

Neural model of gene regulatory network: a survey on supportive meta-heuristics.

PubMed

Biswas, Surama; Acharyya, Sriyankar

2016-06-01

Gene regulatory network (GRN) is produced as a result of regulatory interactions between different genes through their coded proteins in cellular context. Having immense importance in disease detection and drug finding, GRN has been modelled through various mathematical and computational schemes and reported in survey articles. Neural and neuro-fuzzy models have been the focus of attraction in bioinformatics. Predominant use of meta-heuristic algorithms in training neural models has proved its excellence. Considering these facts, this paper is organized to survey neural modelling schemes of GRN and the efficacy of meta-heuristic algorithms towards parameter learning (i.e. weighting connections) within the model. This survey paper renders two different structure-related approaches to infer GRN which are global structure approach and substructure approach. It also describes two neural modelling schemes, such as artificial neural network/recurrent neural network based modelling and neuro-fuzzy modelling. The meta-heuristic algorithms applied so far to learn the structure and parameters of neutrally modelled GRN have been reviewed here.

Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-09-01

Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

SPARSE: quadratic time simultaneous alignment and folding of RNAs without sequence-based heuristics.

PubMed

Will, Sebastian; Otto, Christina; Miladi, Milad; Möhl, Mathias; Backofen, Rolf

2015-08-01

RNA-Seq experiments have revealed a multitude of novel ncRNAs. The gold standard for their analysis based on simultaneous alignment and folding suffers from extreme time complexity of [Formula: see text]. Subsequently, numerous faster 'Sankoff-style' approaches have been suggested. Commonly, the performance of such methods relies on sequence-based heuristics that restrict the search space to optimal or near-optimal sequence alignments; however, the accuracy of sequence-based methods breaks down for RNAs with sequence identities below 60%. Alignment approaches like LocARNA that do not require sequence-based heuristics, have been limited to high complexity ([Formula: see text] quartic time). Breaking this barrier, we introduce the novel Sankoff-style algorithm 'sparsified prediction and alignment of RNAs based on their structure ensembles (SPARSE)', which runs in quadratic time without sequence-based heuristics. To achieve this low complexity, on par with sequence alignment algorithms, SPARSE features strong sparsification based on structural properties of the RNA ensembles. Following PMcomp, SPARSE gains further speed-up from lightweight energy computation. Although all existing lightweight Sankoff-style methods restrict Sankoff's original model by disallowing loop deletions and insertions, SPARSE transfers the Sankoff algorithm to the lightweight energy model completely for the first time. Compared with LocARNA, SPARSE achieves similar alignment and better folding quality in significantly less time (speedup: 3.7). At similar run-time, it aligns low sequence identity instances substantially more accurate than RAF, which uses sequence-based heuristics. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

Models of SOL transport and their relation to scaling of the divertor heat flux width in DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Makowski, M. A.; Lasnier, C. J.; Leonard, A. W.; ...

2014-10-06

Strong support for the critical pressure gradient model for the heat flux width has been obtained, in that the measured separatrix pressure gradient lies below and scales similarly to the pressure gradient limit obtained from the ideal, infinite-n stability codes, BALOO and 2DX, in all cases that have been examined. Predictions of a heuristic drift model for the heat flux width are also in qualitative agreement with the measurements. We obtained these results by using an improved high rep-rate and higher edge spatial resolution Thomson scattering system on DIII-D to measure the upstream electron temperature and density profiles. In ordermore » to compare theory and experiment, profiles of density, temperature, and pressure for both electrons and ions are needed as well values of these quantitities at the separatrix. We also developed a simple method to identify a proxy for the separatrix.« less

Heuristics for Planning University Study at a Distance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodds, Agnes E.; Lawrence, Jeanette A.

A model to describe how adults work on university courses at a distance from campus was developed at an Australian university. The model was designed to describe how students define the task/goal and plan their study, based on G. Ploya's (1957) Heuristic and A. Newell's and H. A. Simon's (1972) General Problem Solver. Verbal reports were obtained…

Testing Bayesian and heuristic predictions of mass judgments of colliding objects

PubMed Central

Sanborn, Adam N.

2014-01-01

Mass judgments of colliding objects have been used to explore people's understanding of the physical world because they are ecologically relevant, yet people display biases that are most easily explained by a small set of heuristics. Recent work has challenged the heuristic explanation, by producing the same biases from a model that copes with perceptual uncertainty by using Bayesian inference with a prior based on the correct combination rules from Newtonian mechanics (noisy Newton). Here I test the predictions of the leading heuristic model (Gilden and Proffitt, 1989) against the noisy Newton model using a novel manipulation of the standard mass judgment task: making one of the objects invisible post-collision. The noisy Newton model uses the remaining information to predict above-chance performance, while the leading heuristic model predicts chance performance when one or the other final velocity is occluded. An experiment using two different types of occlusion showed better-than-chance performance and response patterns that followed the predictions of the noisy Newton model. The results demonstrate that people can make sensible physical judgments even when information critical for the judgment is missing, and that a Bayesian model can serve as a guide in these situations. Possible algorithmic-level accounts of this task that more closely correspond to the noisy Newton model are explored. PMID:25206345

A methodology to design heuristics for model selection based on the characteristics of data: Application to investigate when the Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB).

PubMed

Shirazi, Mohammadali; Dhavala, Soma Sekhar; Lord, Dominique; Geedipally, Srinivas Reddy

2017-10-01

Safety analysts usually use post-modeling methods, such as the Goodness-of-Fit statistics or the Likelihood Ratio Test, to decide between two or more competitive distributions or models. Such metrics require all competitive distributions to be fitted to the data before any comparisons can be accomplished. Given the continuous growth in introducing new statistical distributions, choosing the best one using such post-modeling methods is not a trivial task, in addition to all theoretical or numerical issues the analyst may face during the analysis. Furthermore, and most importantly, these measures or tests do not provide any intuitions into why a specific distribution (or model) is preferred over another (Goodness-of-Logic). This paper ponders into these issues by proposing a methodology to design heuristics for Model Selection based on the characteristics of data, in terms of descriptive summary statistics, before fitting the models. The proposed methodology employs two analytic tools: (1) Monte-Carlo Simulations and (2) Machine Learning Classifiers, to design easy heuristics to predict the label of the 'most-likely-true' distribution for analyzing data. The proposed methodology was applied to investigate when the recently introduced Negative Binomial Lindley (NB-L) distribution is preferred over the Negative Binomial (NB) distribution. Heuristics were designed to select the 'most-likely-true' distribution between these two distributions, given a set of prescribed summary statistics of data. The proposed heuristics were successfully compared against classical tests for several real or observed datasets. Not only they are easy to use and do not need any post-modeling inputs, but also, using these heuristics, the analyst can attain useful information about why the NB-L is preferred over the NB - or vice versa- when modeling data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Solving large-scale fixed cost integer linear programming models for grid-based location problems with heuristic techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor-E-Alam, Md.; Doucette, John

2015-08-01

Grid-based location problems (GBLPs) can be used to solve location problems in business, engineering, resource exploitation, and even in the field of medical sciences. To solve these decision problems, an integer linear programming (ILP) model is designed and developed to provide the optimal solution for GBLPs considering fixed cost criteria. Preliminary results show that the ILP model is efficient in solving small to moderate-sized problems. However, this ILP model becomes intractable in solving large-scale instances. Therefore, a decomposition heuristic is proposed to solve these large-scale GBLPs, which demonstrates significant reduction of solution runtimes. To benchmark the proposed heuristic, results are compared with the exact solution via ILP. The experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms the exact method in runtime with minimal (and in most cases, no) loss of optimality.

Modelling Evolutionary Algorithms with Stochastic Differential Equations.

PubMed

Heredia, Jorge Pérez

2017-11-20

There has been renewed interest in modelling the behaviour of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) by more traditional mathematical objects, such as ordinary differential equations or Markov chains. The advantage is that the analysis becomes greatly facilitated due to the existence of well established methods. However, this typically comes at the cost of disregarding information about the process. Here, we introduce the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for the study of EAs. SDEs can produce simple analytical results for the dynamics of stochastic processes, unlike Markov chains which can produce rigorous but unwieldy expressions about the dynamics. On the other hand, unlike ordinary differential equations (ODEs), they do not discard information about the stochasticity of the process. We show that these are especially suitable for the analysis of fixed budget scenarios and present analogues of the additive and multiplicative drift theorems from runtime analysis. In addition, we derive a new more general multiplicative drift theorem that also covers non-elitist EAs. This theorem simultaneously allows for positive and negative results, providing information on the algorithm's progress even when the problem cannot be optimised efficiently. Finally, we provide results for some well-known heuristics namely Random Walk (RW), Random Local Search (RLS), the (1+1) EA, the Metropolis Algorithm (MA), and the Strong Selection Weak Mutation (SSWM) algorithm.

Analytic and heuristic processes in the detection and resolution of conflict.

PubMed

Ferreira, Mário B; Mata, André; Donkin, Christopher; Sherman, Steven J; Ihmels, Max

2016-10-01

Previous research with the ratio-bias task found larger response latencies for conflict trials where the heuristic- and analytic-based responses are assumed to be in opposition (e.g., choosing between 1/10 and 9/100 ratios of success) when compared to no-conflict trials where both processes converge on the same response (e.g., choosing between 1/10 and 11/100). This pattern is consistent with parallel dual-process models, which assume that there is effective, rather than lax, monitoring of the output of heuristic processing. It is, however, unclear why conflict resolution sometimes fails. Ratio-biased choices may increase because of a decline in analytical reasoning (leaving heuristic-based responses unopposed) or to a rise in heuristic processing (making it more difficult for analytic processes to override the heuristic preferences). Using the process-dissociation procedure, we found that instructions to respond logically and response speed affected analytic (controlled) processing (C), leaving heuristic processing (H) unchanged, whereas the intuitive preference for large nominators (as assessed by responses to equal ratio trials) affected H but not C. These findings create new challenges to the debate between dual-process and single-process accounts, which are discussed.

An investigation of the use of temporal decomposition in space mission scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bullington, Stanley E.; Narayanan, Venkat

1994-01-01

This research involves an examination of techniques for solving scheduling problems in long-duration space missions. The mission timeline is broken up into several time segments, which are then scheduled incrementally. Three methods are presented for identifying the activities that are to be attempted within these segments. The first method is a mathematical model, which is presented primarily to illustrate the structure of the temporal decomposition problem. Since the mathematical model is bound to be computationally prohibitive for realistic problems, two heuristic assignment procedures are also presented. The first heuristic method is based on dispatching rules for activity selection, and the second heuristic assigns performances of a model evenly over timeline segments. These heuristics are tested using a sample Space Station mission and a Spacelab mission. The results are compared with those obtained by scheduling the missions without any problem decomposition. The applicability of this approach to large-scale mission scheduling problems is also discussed.

Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

2017-01-01

The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

Negations in syllogistic reasoning: evidence for a heuristic-analytic conflict.

PubMed

Stupple, Edward J N; Waterhouse, Eleanor F

2009-08-01

An experiment utilizing response time measures was conducted to test dominant processing strategies in syllogistic reasoning with the expanded quantifier set proposed by Roberts (2005). Through adding negations to existing quantifiers it is possible to change problem surface features without altering logical validity. Biases based on surface features such as atmosphere, matching, and the probability heuristics model (PHM; Chater & Oaksford, 1999; Wetherick & Gilhooly, 1995) would not be expected to show variance in response latencies, but participant responses should be highly sensitive to changes in the surface features of the quantifiers. In contrast, according to analytic accounts such as mental models theory and mental logic (e.g., Johnson-Laird & Byrne, 1991; Rips, 1994) participants should exhibit increased response times for negated premises, but not be overly impacted upon by the surface features of the conclusion. Data indicated that the dominant response strategy was based on a matching heuristic, but also provided evidence of a resource-demanding analytic procedure for dealing with double negatives. The authors propose that dual-process theories offer a stronger account of these data whereby participants employ competing heuristic and analytic strategies and fall back on a heuristic response when analytic processing fails.

It looks easy! Heuristics for combinatorial optimization problems.

PubMed

Chronicle, Edward P; MacGregor, James N; Ormerod, Thomas C; Burr, Alistair

2006-04-01

Human performance on instances of computationally intractable optimization problems, such as the travelling salesperson problem (TSP), can be excellent. We have proposed a boundary-following heuristic to account for this finding. We report three experiments with TSPs where the capacity to employ this heuristic was varied. In Experiment 1, participants free to use the heuristic produced solutions significantly closer to optimal than did those prevented from doing so. Experiments 2 and 3 together replicated this finding in larger problems and demonstrated that a potential confound had no effect. In all three experiments, performance was closely matched by a boundary-following model. The results implicate global rather than purely local processes. Humans may have access to simple, perceptually based, heuristics that are suited to some combinatorial optimization tasks.

The generalized drift flux approach: Identification of the void-drift closure law

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boure, J. A.

1989-01-01

The main characteristics and the potential advantages of generalized drift flux models are presented. In particular it is stressed that the issue on the propagation properties and on the mathematical nature (hyperbolic or not) of the model and the problem of closure are easier to tackle than in two fluid models. The problem of identifying the differential void-drift closure law inherent to generalized drift flux models is then addressed. Such a void-drift closure, based on wave properties, is proposed for bubbly flows. It involves a drift relaxation time which is of the order of 0.25 s. It is observed that, although wave properties provide essential closure validity tests, they do not represent an easily usable source of quantitative information on the closure laws.

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Plan-graph Based Heuristics for Conformant Probabilistic Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramakrishnan, Salesh; Pollack, Martha E.; Smith, David E.

2004-01-01

In this paper, we introduce plan-graph based heuristics to solve a variation of the conformant probabilistic planning (CPP) problem. In many real-world problems, it is the case that the sensors are unreliable or take too many resources to provide knowledge about the environment. These domains are better modeled as conformant planning problems. POMDP based techniques are currently the most successful approach for solving CPP but have the limitation of state- space explosion. Recent advances in deterministic and conformant planning have shown that plan-graphs can be used to enhance the performance significantly. We show that this enhancement can also be translated to CPP. We describe our process for developing the plan-graph heuristics and estimating the probability of a partial plan. We compare the performance of our planner PVHPOP when used with different heuristics. We also perform a comparison with a POMDP solver to show over a order of magnitude improvement in performance.

Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart.

PubMed

Todd, P M; Gigerenzer, G

2000-10-01

How can anyone be rational in a world where knowledge is limited, time is pressing, and deep thought is often an unattainable luxury? Traditional models of unbounded rationality and optimization in cognitive science, economics, and animal behavior have tended to view decision-makers as possessing supernatural powers of reason, limitless knowledge, and endless time. But understanding decisions in the real world requires a more psychologically plausible notion of bounded rationality. In Simple heuristics that make us smart (Gigerenzer et al. 1999), we explore fast and frugal heuristics--simple rules in the mind's adaptive toolbox for making decisions with realistic mental resources. These heuristics can enable both living organisms and artificial systems to make smart choices quickly and with a minimum of information by exploiting the way that information is structured in particular environments. In this précis, we show how simple building blocks that control information search, stop search, and make decisions can be put together to form classes of heuristics, including: ignorance-based and one-reason decision making for choice, elimination models for categorization, and satisficing heuristics for sequential search. These simple heuristics perform comparably to more complex algorithms, particularly when generalizing to new data--that is, simplicity leads to robustness. We present evidence regarding when people use simple heuristics and describe the challenges to be addressed by this research program.

SPARSE: quadratic time simultaneous alignment and folding of RNAs without sequence-based heuristics

PubMed Central

Will, Sebastian; Otto, Christina; Miladi, Milad; Möhl, Mathias; Backofen, Rolf

2015-01-01

Motivation: RNA-Seq experiments have revealed a multitude of novel ncRNAs. The gold standard for their analysis based on simultaneous alignment and folding suffers from extreme time complexity of O(n6). Subsequently, numerous faster ‘Sankoff-style’ approaches have been suggested. Commonly, the performance of such methods relies on sequence-based heuristics that restrict the search space to optimal or near-optimal sequence alignments; however, the accuracy of sequence-based methods breaks down for RNAs with sequence identities below 60%. Alignment approaches like LocARNA that do not require sequence-based heuristics, have been limited to high complexity (≥ quartic time). Results: Breaking this barrier, we introduce the novel Sankoff-style algorithm ‘sparsified prediction and alignment of RNAs based on their structure ensembles (SPARSE)’, which runs in quadratic time without sequence-based heuristics. To achieve this low complexity, on par with sequence alignment algorithms, SPARSE features strong sparsification based on structural properties of the RNA ensembles. Following PMcomp, SPARSE gains further speed-up from lightweight energy computation. Although all existing lightweight Sankoff-style methods restrict Sankoff’s original model by disallowing loop deletions and insertions, SPARSE transfers the Sankoff algorithm to the lightweight energy model completely for the first time. Compared with LocARNA, SPARSE achieves similar alignment and better folding quality in significantly less time (speedup: 3.7). At similar run-time, it aligns low sequence identity instances substantially more accurate than RAF, which uses sequence-based heuristics. Availability and implementation: SPARSE is freely available at http://www.bioinf.uni-freiburg.de/Software/SPARSE. Contact: backofen@informatik.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:25838465

Utility functions and resource management in an oversubscribed heterogeneous computing environment

DOE PAGES

Khemka, Bhavesh; Friese, Ryan; Briceno, Luis Diego; ...

2014-09-26

We model an oversubscribed heterogeneous computing system where tasks arrive dynamically and a scheduler maps the tasks to machines for execution. The environment and workloads are based on those being investigated by the Extreme Scale Systems Center at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Utility functions that are designed based on specifications from the system owner and users are used to create a metric for the performance of resource allocation heuristics. Each task has a time-varying utility (importance) that the enterprise will earn based on when the task successfully completes execution. We design multiple heuristics, which include a technique to drop lowmore » utility-earning tasks, to maximize the total utility that can be earned by completing tasks. The heuristics are evaluated using simulation experiments with two levels of oversubscription. The results show the benefit of having fast heuristics that account for the importance of a task and the heterogeneity of the environment when making allocation decisions in an oversubscribed environment. Furthermore, the ability to drop low utility-earning tasks allow the heuristics to tolerate the high oversubscription as well as earn significant utility.« less

Heuristics for the Hodgkin-Huxley system.

PubMed

Hoppensteadt, Frank

2013-09-01

Hodgkin and Huxley (HH) discovered that voltages control ionic currents in nerve membranes. This led them to describe electrical activity in a neuronal membrane patch in terms of an electronic circuit whose characteristics were determined using empirical data. Due to the complexity of this model, a variety of heuristics, including relaxation oscillator circuits and integrate-and-fire models, have been used to investigate activity in neurons, and these simpler models have been successful in suggesting experiments and explaining observations. Connections between most of the simpler models had not been made clear until recently. Shown here are connections between these heuristics and the full HH model. In particular, we study a new model (Type III circuit): It includes the van der Pol-based models; it can be approximated by a simple integrate-and-fire model; and it creates voltages and currents that correspond, respectively, to the h and V components of the HH system. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Money Earlier or Later? Simple Heuristics Explain Intertemporal Choices Better than Delay Discounting1

PubMed Central

Marzilli Ericson, Keith M.; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2015-01-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains of choice. We compare heuristic models of intertemporal choice, which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies, to discounting models. We conduct an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of intertemporal choice models. Heuristic models outperform traditional utility discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best performing models predict choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative (percentage) differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We conclude that heuristic models explain time-money tradeoff choices in experiments better than utility discounting models. PMID:25911124

Particle drift model for Z-pinch-driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Jia Kun; Xu, Qiang; Wang, Kun Lun; Ren, Xiao Dong; Huang, Xian Bin

2016-09-01

A theoretical model of Z-pinch driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability is proposed based on the particle drift point of view, which can explain the helical instability structure observed in premagnetized imploding liner experiments. It is demonstrated that all possible drift motions, including polarization drift, gradient drift, and curvature drift, which can lead to charge separations, each will attribute to an effective gravity acceleration. Theoretical predictions given by this model are dramatically different from those given by previous theories which have been readily recovered in the theory presented here as a limiting case. The theory shows qualitative agreement with available experimental data of the pitch angle and provides certain predictions to be verified.

Strategy selection as rational metareasoning.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L

2017-11-01

Many contemporary accounts of human reasoning assume that the mind is equipped with multiple heuristics that could be deployed to perform a given task. This raises the question of how the mind determines when to use which heuristic. To answer this question, we developed a rational model of strategy selection, based on the theory of rational metareasoning developed in the artificial intelligence literature. According to our model people learn to efficiently choose the strategy with the best cost-benefit tradeoff by learning a predictive model of each strategy's performance. We found that our model can provide a unifying explanation for classic findings from domains ranging from decision-making to arithmetic by capturing the variability of people's strategy choices, their dependence on task and context, and their development over time. Systematic model comparisons supported our theory, and 4 new experiments confirmed its distinctive predictions. Our findings suggest that people gradually learn to make increasingly more rational use of fallible heuristics. This perspective reconciles the 2 poles of the debate about human rationality by integrating heuristics and biases with learning and rationality. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Money earlier or later? Simple heuristics explain intertemporal choices better than delay discounting does.

PubMed

Ericson, Keith M Marzilli; White, John Myles; Laibson, David; Cohen, Jonathan D

2015-06-01

Heuristic models have been proposed for many domains involving choice. We conducted an out-of-sample, cross-validated comparison of heuristic models of intertemporal choice (which can account for many of the known intertemporal choice anomalies) and discounting models. Heuristic models outperformed traditional utility-discounting models, including models of exponential and hyperbolic discounting. The best-performing models predicted choices by using a weighted average of absolute differences and relative percentage differences of the attributes of the goods in a choice set. We concluded that heuristic models explain time-money trade-off choices in experiments better than do utility-discounting models. © The Author(s) 2015.

Approaches to eliminate waste and reduce cost for recycling glass.

PubMed

Chao, Chien-Wen; Liao, Ching-Jong

2011-12-01

In recent years, the issue of environmental protection has received considerable attention. This paper adds to the literature by investigating a scheduling problem in the manufacturing of a glass recycling factory in Taiwan. The objective is to minimize the sum of the total holding cost and loss cost. We first represent the problem as an integer programming (IP) model, and then develop two heuristics based on the IP model to find near-optimal solutions for the problem. To validate the proposed heuristics, comparisons between optimal solutions from the IP model and solutions from the current method are conducted. The comparisons involve two problem sizes, small and large, where the small problems range from 15 to 45 jobs, and the large problems from 50 to 100 jobs. Finally, a genetic algorithm is applied to evaluate the proposed heuristics. Computational experiments show that the proposed heuristics can find good solutions in a reasonable time for the considered problem. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

One-Reason Decision Making Unveiled: A Measurement Model of the Recognition Heuristic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Erdfelder, Edgar; Pohl, Rudiger F.

2010-01-01

The fast-and-frugal recognition heuristic (RH) theory provides a precise process description of comparative judgments. It claims that, in suitable domains, judgments between pairs of objects are based on recognition alone, whereas further knowledge is ignored. However, due to the confound between recognition and further knowledge, previous…

Varying execution discipline to increase performance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Campbell, P.L.; Maccabe, A.B.

1993-12-22

This research investigates the relationship between execution discipline and performance. The hypothesis has two parts: 1. Different execution disciplines exhibit different performance for different computations, and 2. These differences can be effectively predicted by heuristics. A machine model is developed that can vary its execution discipline. That is, the model can execute a given program using either the control-driven, data-driven or demand-driven execution discipline. This model is referred to as a ``variable-execution-discipline`` machine. The instruction set for the model is the Program Dependence Web (PDW). The first part of the hypothesis will be tested by simulating the execution of themore » machine model on a suite of computations, based on the Livermore Fortran Kernel (LFK) Test (a.k.a. the Livermore Loops), using all three execution disciplines. Heuristics are developed to predict relative performance. These heuristics predict (a) the execution time under each discipline for one iteration of each loop and (b) the number of iterations taken by that loop; then the heuristics use those predictions to develop a prediction for the execution of the entire loop. Similar calculations are performed for branch statements. The second part of the hypothesis will be tested by comparing the results of the simulated execution with the predictions produced by the heuristics. If the hypothesis is supported, then the door is open for the development of machines that can vary execution discipline to increase performance.« less

Intonation in unaccompanied singing: accuracy, drift, and a model of reference pitch memory.

PubMed

Mauch, Matthias; Frieler, Klaus; Dixon, Simon

2014-07-01

This paper presents a study on intonation and intonation drift in unaccompanied singing, and proposes a simple model of reference pitch memory that accounts for many of the effects observed. Singing experiments were conducted with 24 singers of varying ability under three conditions (Normal, Masked, Imagined). Over the duration of a recording, ∼50 s, a median absolute intonation drift of 11 cents was observed. While smaller than the median note error (19 cents), drift was significant in 22% of recordings. Drift magnitude did not correlate with other measures of singing accuracy, singing experience, or the presence of conditions tested. Furthermore, it is shown that neither a static intonation memory model nor a memoryless interval-based intonation model can account for the accuracy and drift behavior observed. The proposed causal model provides a better explanation as it treats the reference pitch as a changing latent variable.

A Heuristic Bioinspired for 8-Piece Puzzle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, M. O.; Fabres, P. A.; Melo, J. C. L.

2017-10-01

This paper investigates a mathematical model inspired by nature, and presents a Meta-Heuristic that is efficient in improving the performance of an informed search, when using strategy A * using a General Search Tree as data structure. The work hypothesis suggests that the investigated meta-heuristic is optimal in nature and may be promising in minimizing the computational resources required by an objective-based agent in solving high computational complexity problems (n-part puzzle) as well as In the optimization of objective functions for local search agents. The objective of this work is to describe qualitatively the characteristics and properties of the mathematical model investigated, correlating the main concepts of the A * function with the significant variables of the metaheuristic used. The article shows that the amount of memory required to perform this search when using the metaheuristic is less than using the A * function to evaluate the nodes of a general search tree for the eight-piece puzzle. It is concluded that the meta-heuristic must be parameterized according to the chosen heuristic and the level of the tree that contains the possible solutions to the chosen problem.

Familiarity and Recollection in Heuristic Decision Making

PubMed Central

Schwikert, Shane R.; Curran, Tim

2014-01-01

Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the by-products of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the two heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective pre-experimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical frame work that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PMID:25347534

Familiarity and recollection in heuristic decision making.

PubMed

Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim

2014-12-01

Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Critical Factors Analysis for Offshore Software Development Success by Structural Equation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihisa; Tsuji, Hiroshi

In order to analyze the success/failure factors in offshore software development service by the structural equation modeling, this paper proposes to follow two approaches together; domain knowledge based heuristic analysis and factor analysis based rational analysis. The former works for generating and verifying of hypothesis to find factors and causalities. The latter works for verifying factors introduced by theory to build the model without heuristics. Following the proposed combined approaches for the responses from skilled project managers of the questionnaire, this paper found that the vendor property has high causality for the success compared to software property and project property.

How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

2017-03-01

Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Hidden Markov Model Approach to the Problem of Heuristic Selection in Hyper-Heuristics with a Case Study in High School Timetabling Problems.

PubMed

Kheiri, Ahmed; Keedwell, Ed

2017-01-01

Operations research is a well-established field that uses computational systems to support decisions in business and public life. Good solutions to operations research problems can make a large difference to the efficient running of businesses and organisations and so the field often searches for new methods to improve these solutions. The high school timetabling problem is an example of an operations research problem and is a challenging task which requires assigning events and resources to time slots subject to a set of constraints. In this article, a new sequence-based selection hyper-heuristic is presented that produces excellent results on a suite of high school timetabling problems. In this study, we present an easy-to-implement, easy-to-maintain, and effective sequence-based selection hyper-heuristic to solve high school timetabling problems using a benchmark of unified real-world instances collected from different countries. We show that with sequence-based methods, it is possible to discover new best known solutions for a number of the problems in the timetabling domain. Through this investigation, the usefulness of sequence-based selection hyper-heuristics has been demonstrated and the capability of these methods has been shown to exceed the state of the art.

Multi-objective Decision Based Available Transfer Capability in Deregulated Power System Using Heuristic Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasam, Gopi Krishna; Manohar, T. Gowri

2016-09-01

Determination of available transfer capability (ATC) requires the use of experience, intuition and exact judgment in order to meet several significant aspects in the deregulated environment. Based on these points, this paper proposes two heuristic approaches to compute ATC. The first proposed heuristic algorithm integrates the five methods known as continuation repeated power flow, repeated optimal power flow, radial basis function neural network, back propagation neural network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to obtain ATC. The second proposed heuristic model is used to obtain multiple ATC values. Out of these, a specific ATC value will be selected based on a number of social, economic, deregulated environmental constraints and related to specific applications like optimization, on-line monitoring, and ATC forecasting known as multi-objective decision based optimal ATC. The validity of results obtained through these proposed methods are scrupulously verified on various buses of the IEEE 24-bus reliable test system. The results presented and derived conclusions in this paper are very useful for planning, operation, maintaining of reliable power in any power system and its monitoring in an on-line environment of deregulated power system. In this way, the proposed heuristic methods would contribute the best possible approach to assess multiple objective ATC using integrated methods.

Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

2009-01-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

The fallacy of financial heuristics.

PubMed

Langabeer, James

2007-01-01

In turbulent times, the financial policies and decisions about cash and debt make or break hospitals' financial condition. Decisions about whether to continue saving cash or reduce debt burdens are probably the most vital policy decision for the hospital CFO. Unfortunately, my research shows that most administrators are relying on judgment, or best-guess heuristics to address these policy issues. This article explores one of the most common heuristics in health finance-ratios gauging debt and cash on hand. The subject is explored through the research and analysis of over 40 hospitals in a very competitive marketplace-the boroughs of New York City. Analyses of financial strength, through various statistical models, were conducted to explore the linkages between traditional heuristics and long-term economic results. Data were collected for 30 operational and financial indicators. Findings suggest that organizations require different cash-debt positions based on their overall financial health, and that a one-number heuristic does not fit all. Extremely financially constrained hospitals (those approaching bankruptcy conditions) should be building free cash flow and minimizing debt service, while financially secure hospitals need to minimize cash on hand while reducing debt. If all hospitals continue to try to meet an arbitrary days of cash heuristic, this simplification could cripple an organization. A much more effective metric requires each organization to model decisions more comprehensively.

Heuristic decision making.

PubMed

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

Dynamic Resource Management for Parallel Tasks in an Oversubscribed Energy-Constrained Heterogeneous Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imam, Neena; Koenig, Gregory A; Machovec, Dylan

2016-01-01

Abstract: The worth of completing parallel tasks is modeled using utility functions, which monotonically-decrease with time and represent the importance and urgency of a task. These functions define the utility earned by a task at the time of its completion. The performance of such a system is measured as the total utility earned by all completed tasks over some interval of time (e.g., 24 hours). To maximize system performance when scheduling dynamically arriving parallel tasks onto a high performance computing (HPC) system that is oversubscribed and energy-constrained, we have designed, analyzed, and compared different heuristic techniques. Four utility-aware heuristics (i.e.,more » Max Utility, Max Utility-per-Time, Max Utility-per-Resource, and Max Utility-per-Energy), three FCFS-based heuristics (Conservative Backfilling, EASY Backfilling, and FCFS with Multiple Queues), and a Random heuristic were examined in this study. A technique that is often used with the FCFS-based heuristics is the concept of a permanent reservation. We compare the performance of permanent reservations with temporary place-holders to demonstrate the advantages that place-holders can provide. We also present a novel energy filtering technique that constrains the maximum energy-per-resource used by each task. We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the performance of these heuristics and techniques in an energy-constrained oversubscribed HPC environment. With place-holders, energy filtering, and dropping tasks with low potential utility, our utility-aware heuristics are able to significantly outperform the existing FCFS-based techniques.« less

POCO-MOEA: Using Evolutionary Algorithms to Solve the Controller Placement Problem

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-24

to gather data on POCO-MOEA performance to a series of iv model networks. The algorithm’s behavior is then evaluated and compared to ex- haustive... evaluation of a third heuristic based on a Multi 3 Objective Evolutionary Algorithm (MOEA). This heuristic is modeled after one of the most well known MOEAs...researchers to extend into more realistic evaluations of the performance characteristics of SDN controllers, such as the use of simulators or live

How cognitive heuristics can explain social interactions in spatial movement.

PubMed

Seitz, Michael J; Bode, Nikolai W F; Köster, Gerta

2016-08-01

The movement of pedestrian crowds is a paradigmatic example of collective motion. The precise nature of individual-level behaviours underlying crowd movements has been subject to a lively debate. Here, we propose that pedestrians follow simple heuristics rooted in cognitive psychology, such as 'stop if another step would lead to a collision' or 'follow the person in front'. In other words, our paradigm explicitly models individual-level behaviour as a series of discrete decisions. We show that our cognitive heuristics produce realistic emergent crowd phenomena, such as lane formation and queuing behaviour. Based on our results, we suggest that pedestrians follow different cognitive heuristics that are selected depending on the context. This differs from the widely used approach of capturing changes in behaviour via model parameters and leads to testable hypotheses on changes in crowd behaviour for different motivation levels. For example, we expect that rushed individuals more often evade to the side and thus display distinct emergent queue formations in front of a bottleneck. Our heuristics can be ranked according to the cognitive effort that is required to follow them. Therefore, our model establishes a direct link between behavioural responses and cognitive effort and thus facilitates a novel perspective on collective behaviour. © 2016 The Author(s).

How cognitive heuristics can explain social interactions in spatial movement

PubMed Central

Köster, Gerta

2016-01-01

The movement of pedestrian crowds is a paradigmatic example of collective motion. The precise nature of individual-level behaviours underlying crowd movements has been subject to a lively debate. Here, we propose that pedestrians follow simple heuristics rooted in cognitive psychology, such as ‘stop if another step would lead to a collision’ or ‘follow the person in front’. In other words, our paradigm explicitly models individual-level behaviour as a series of discrete decisions. We show that our cognitive heuristics produce realistic emergent crowd phenomena, such as lane formation and queuing behaviour. Based on our results, we suggest that pedestrians follow different cognitive heuristics that are selected depending on the context. This differs from the widely used approach of capturing changes in behaviour via model parameters and leads to testable hypotheses on changes in crowd behaviour for different motivation levels. For example, we expect that rushed individuals more often evade to the side and thus display distinct emergent queue formations in front of a bottleneck. Our heuristics can be ranked according to the cognitive effort that is required to follow them. Therefore, our model establishes a direct link between behavioural responses and cognitive effort and thus facilitates a novel perspective on collective behaviour. PMID:27581483

An experimental test and models of drift and dispersal processes of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) free embryos in the Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braaten, P.J.; Fuller, D.B.; Lott, R.D.; Ruggles, M.P.; Brandt, T.F.; Legare, R.G.; Holm, R.J.

2012-01-01

Free embryos of wild pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus were released in the Missouri River and captured at downstream sites through a 180-km reach of the river to examine ontogenetic drift and dispersal processes. Free embryos drifted primarily in the fastest portion of the river channel, and initial drift velocities for all age groups (mean = 0.66–0.70 m s−1) were only slightly slower than mean water column velocity (0.72 m s−1). During the multi-day long-distance drift period, drift velocities of all age groups declined an average of 9.7% day−1. Younger free embryos remained in the drift upon termination of the study; whereas, older age groups transitioned from drifting to settling during the study. Models based on growth of free embryos, drift behavior, size-related variations in drift rates, and channel hydraulic characteristics were developed to estimate cumulative distance drifted during ontogenetic development through a range of simulated water temperatures and velocity conditions. Those models indicated that the average free embryo would be expected to drift several hundred km during ontogenetic development. Empirical data and model results highlight the long-duration, long-distance drift and dispersal processes for pallid sturgeon early life stages. In addition, results provide a likely mechanism for lack of pallid sturgeon recruitment in fragmented river reaches where dams and reservoirs reduce the length of free-flowing river available for pallid sturgeon free embryos during ontogenetic development.

Field investigation of the drift shadow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Su, G.W.; Kneafsey, T.J.; Ghezzehei, T.A.; Cook, P.J.; Marshall, B.D.

2006-01-01

The "Drift Shadow" is defined as the relatively drier region that forms below subsurface cavities or drifts in unsaturated rock. Its existence has been predicted through analytical and numerical models of unsaturated flow. However, these theoretical predictions have not been demonstrated empirically to date. In this project we plan to test the drift shadow concept through field investigations and compare our observations to simulations. Based on modeling studies we have an identified a suitable site to perform the study at an inactive mine in a sandstone formation. Pretest modeling studies and preliminary characterization of the site are being used to develop the field scale tests.

Adaptive object tracking via both positive and negative models matching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shaomei; Gao, Chao; Wang, Yawen

2015-03-01

To improve tracking drift which often occurs in adaptive tracking, an algorithm based on the fusion of tracking and detection is proposed in this paper. Firstly, object tracking is posed as abinary classification problem and is modeled by partial least squares (PLS) analysis. Secondly, tracking object frame by frame via particle filtering. Thirdly, validating the tracking reliability based on both positive and negative models matching. Finally, relocating the object based on SIFT features matching and voting when drift occurs. Object appearance model is updated at the same time. The algorithm can not only sense tracking drift but also relocate the object whenever needed. Experimental results demonstrate that this algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms on many challenging sequences.

Path integration mediated systematic search: a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Vickerstaff, Robert J; Merkle, Tobias

2012-08-21

The systematic search behaviour is a backup system that increases the chances of desert ants finding their nest entrance after foraging when the path integrator has failed to guide them home accurately enough. Here we present a mathematical model of the systematic search that is based on extensive behavioural studies in North African desert ants Cataglyphis fortis. First, a simple search heuristic utilising Bayesian inference and a probability density function is developed. This model, which optimises the short-term nest detection probability, is then compared to three simpler search heuristics and to recorded search patterns of Cataglyphis ants. To compare the different searches a method to quantify search efficiency is established as well as an estimate of the error rate in the ants' path integrator. We demonstrate that the Bayesian search heuristic is able to automatically adapt to increasing levels of positional uncertainty to produce broader search patterns, just as desert ants do, and that it outperforms the three other search heuristics tested. The searches produced by it are also arguably the most similar in appearance to the ant's searches. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantification of Stokes Drift as a Mechanism for Surface Oil Advection in the DWH Oil Spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, M.

2013-12-01

Stokes drift has previously been qualitatively shown to be a factor in ocean surface particle transport, but has never been comprehensively quantified. In addition, most operational ocean particle advection models used during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill do not explicitly account for Stokes drift, instead using a simple parameterization based on wind drift (or ignoring it completely). This research works to quantify Stokes drift via direct calculation, with a focus on shallow water, where Stokes drift is more likely to have a relatively large impact compared to other transport processes such as ocean currents. For this study, WaveWatch III modeled waves in the Gulf of Mexico are used, from which Stokes drift is calculated using the peak wave period and significant wave height outputs. Trajectories are also calculated to examine the role Stokes drift plays in bringing surface particles (and specifically surface oil slicks) onshore. The impact of Stokes drift is compared to transport by currents and traditional estimates of wind drift.

OpenDrift v1.0: a generic framework for trajectory modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Röhrs, Johannes; Breivik, Øyvind; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn

2018-04-01

OpenDrift is an open-source Python-based framework for Lagrangian particle modelling under development at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute with contributions from the wider scientific community. The framework is highly generic and modular, and is designed to be used for any type of drift calculations in the ocean or atmosphere. A specific module within the OpenDrift framework corresponds to a Lagrangian particle model in the traditional sense. A number of modules have already been developed, including an oil drift module, a stochastic search-and-rescue module, a pelagic egg module, and a basic module for atmospheric drift. The framework allows for the ingestion of an unspecified number of forcing fields (scalar and vectorial) from various sources, including Eulerian ocean, atmosphere and wave models, but also measurements or a priori values for the same variables. A basic backtracking mechanism is inherent, using sign reversal of the total displacement vector and negative time stepping. OpenDrift is fast and simple to set up and use on Linux, Mac and Windows environments, and can be used with minimal or no Python experience. It is designed for flexibility, and researchers may easily adapt or write modules for their specific purpose. OpenDrift is also designed for performance, and simulations with millions of particles may be performed on a laptop. Further, OpenDrift is designed for robustness and is in daily operational use for emergency preparedness modelling (oil drift, search and rescue, and drifting ships) at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

FOG Random Drift Signal Denoising Based on the Improved AR Model and Modified Sage-Husa Adaptive Kalman Filter.

PubMed

Sun, Jin; Xu, Xiaosu; Liu, Yiting; Zhang, Tao; Li, Yao

2016-07-12

In order to reduce the influence of fiber optic gyroscope (FOG) random drift error on inertial navigation systems, an improved auto regressive (AR) model is put forward in this paper. First, based on real-time observations at each restart of the gyroscope, the model of FOG random drift can be established online. In the improved AR model, the FOG measured signal is employed instead of the zero mean signals. Then, the modified Sage-Husa adaptive Kalman filter (SHAKF) is introduced, which can directly carry out real-time filtering on the FOG signals. Finally, static and dynamic experiments are done to verify the effectiveness. The filtering results are analyzed with Allan variance. The analysis results show that the improved AR model has high fitting accuracy and strong adaptability, and the minimum fitting accuracy of single noise is 93.2%. Based on the improved AR(3) model, the denoising method of SHAKF is more effective than traditional methods, and its effect is better than 30%. The random drift error of FOG is reduced effectively, and the precision of the FOG is improved.

Benchmark of the local drift-kinetic models for neoclassical transport simulation in helical plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, B.; Satake, S.; Kanno, R.; Sugama, H.; Matsuoka, S.

2017-02-01

The benchmarks of the neoclassical transport codes based on the several local drift-kinetic models are reported here. Here, the drift-kinetic models are zero orbit width (ZOW), zero magnetic drift, DKES-like, and global, as classified in Matsuoka et al. [Phys. Plasmas 22, 072511 (2015)]. The magnetic geometries of Helically Symmetric Experiment, Large Helical Device (LHD), and Wendelstein 7-X are employed in the benchmarks. It is found that the assumption of E ×B incompressibility causes discrepancy of neoclassical radial flux and parallel flow among the models when E ×B is sufficiently large compared to the magnetic drift velocities. For example, Mp≤0.4 where Mp is the poloidal Mach number. On the other hand, when E ×B and the magnetic drift velocities are comparable, the tangential magnetic drift, which is included in both the global and ZOW models, fills the role of suppressing unphysical peaking of neoclassical radial-fluxes found in the other local models at Er≃0 . In low collisionality plasmas, in particular, the tangential drift effect works well to suppress such unphysical behavior of the radial transport caused in the simulations. It is demonstrated that the ZOW model has the advantage of mitigating the unphysical behavior in the several magnetic geometries, and that it also implements the evaluation of bootstrap current in LHD with the low computation cost compared to the global model.

An effective drift correction for dynamical downscaling of decadal global climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paeth, Heiko; Li, Jingmin; Pollinger, Felix; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Pohlmann, Holger; Feldmann, Hendrik; Panitz, Hans-Jürgen

2018-04-01

Initialized decadal climate predictions with coupled climate models are often marked by substantial climate drifts that emanate from a mismatch between the climatology of the coupled model system and the data set used for initialization. While such drifts may be easily removed from the prediction system when analyzing individual variables, a major problem prevails for multivariate issues and, especially, when the output of the global prediction system shall be used for dynamical downscaling. In this study, we present a statistical approach to remove climate drifts in a multivariate context and demonstrate the effect of this drift correction on regional climate model simulations over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The statistical approach is based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis adapted to a very large data matrix. The climate drift emerges as a dramatic cooling trend in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and is captured by the leading EOF of the multivariate output from the global prediction system, accounting for 7.7% of total variability. The SST cooling pattern also imposes drifts in various atmospheric variables and levels. The removal of the first EOF effectuates the drift correction while retaining other components of intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variability. In the regional climate model, the multivariate drift correction of the input data removes the cooling trends in most western European land regions and systematically reduces the discrepancy between the output of the regional climate model and observational data. In contrast, removing the drift only in the SST field from the global model has hardly any positive effect on the regional climate model.

Online Sensor Drift Compensation for E-Nose Systems Using Domain Adaptation and Extreme Learning Machine.

PubMed

Ma, Zhiyuan; Luo, Guangchun; Qin, Ke; Wang, Nan; Niu, Weina

2018-03-01

Sensor drift is a common issue in E-Nose systems and various drift compensation methods have received fruitful results in recent years. Although the accuracy for recognizing diverse gases under drift conditions has been largely enhanced, few of these methods considered online processing scenarios. In this paper, we focus on building online drift compensation model by transforming two domain adaptation based methods into their online learning versions, which allow the recognition models to adapt to the changes of sensor responses in a time-efficient manner without losing the high accuracy. Experimental results using three different settings confirm that the proposed methods save large processing time when compared with their offline versions, and outperform other drift compensation methods in recognition accuracy.

Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

PubMed

Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

2010-06-01

It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

Modeling of radiation damage recovery in particle detectors based on GaN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaubas, E.; Ceponis, T.; Pavlov, J.

2015-12-01

The pulsed characteristics of the capacitor-type and PIN diode type detectors based on GaN have been simulated using the dynamic and drift-diffusion models. The drift-diffusion current simulations have been implemented by employing the commercial software package Synopsys TCAD Sentaurus. The bipolar drift regime has been analyzed. The possible internal gain in charge collection through carrier multiplication processes determined by impact ionization has been considered in order to compensate carrier lifetime reduction due to radiation defects introduced into GaN material of detector.

Simulations of Operation Dynamics of Different Type GaN Particle Sensors

PubMed Central

Gaubas, Eugenijus; Ceponis, Tomas; Kalesinskas, Vidas; Pavlov, Jevgenij; Vysniauskas, Juozas

2015-01-01

The operation dynamics of the capacitor-type and PIN diode type detectors based on GaN have been simulated using the dynamic and drift-diffusion models. The drift-diffusion current simulations have been implemented by employing the software package Synopsys TCAD Sentaurus. The monopolar and bipolar drift regimes have been analyzed by using dynamic models based on the Shockley-Ramo theorem. The carrier multiplication processes determined by impact ionization have been considered in order to compensate carrier lifetime reduction due to introduction of radiation defects into GaN detector material. PMID:25751080

Storage Costs and Heuristics Interact to Produce Patterns of Aphasic Sentence Comprehension Performance

PubMed Central

Clark, David Glenn

2012-01-01

Background: Despite general agreement that aphasic individuals exhibit difficulty understanding complex sentences, the nature of sentence complexity itself is unresolved. In addition, aphasic individuals appear to make use of heuristic strategies for understanding sentences. This research is a comparison of predictions derived from two approaches to the quantification of sentence complexity, one based on the hierarchical structure of sentences, and the other based on dependency locality theory (DLT). Complexity metrics derived from these theories are evaluated under various assumptions of heuristic use. Method: A set of complexity metrics was derived from each general theory of sentence complexity and paired with assumptions of heuristic use. Probability spaces were generated that summarized the possible patterns of performance across 16 different sentence structures. The maximum likelihood of comprehension scores of 42 aphasic individuals was then computed for each probability space and the expected scores from the best-fitting points in the space were recorded for comparison to the actual scores. Predictions were then compared using measures of fit quality derived from linear mixed effects models. Results: All three of the metrics that provide the most consistently accurate predictions of patient scores rely on storage costs based on the DLT. Patients appear to employ an Agent–Theme heuristic, but vary in their tendency to accept heuristically generated interpretations. Furthermore, the ability to apply the heuristic may be degraded in proportion to aphasia severity. Conclusion: DLT-derived storage costs provide the best prediction of sentence comprehension patterns in aphasia. Because these costs are estimated by counting incomplete syntactic dependencies at each point in a sentence, this finding suggests that aphasia is associated with reduced availability of cognitive resources for maintaining these dependencies. PMID:22590462

Storage costs and heuristics interact to produce patterns of aphasic sentence comprehension performance.

PubMed

Clark, David Glenn

2012-01-01

Despite general agreement that aphasic individuals exhibit difficulty understanding complex sentences, the nature of sentence complexity itself is unresolved. In addition, aphasic individuals appear to make use of heuristic strategies for understanding sentences. This research is a comparison of predictions derived from two approaches to the quantification of sentence complexity, one based on the hierarchical structure of sentences, and the other based on dependency locality theory (DLT). Complexity metrics derived from these theories are evaluated under various assumptions of heuristic use. A set of complexity metrics was derived from each general theory of sentence complexity and paired with assumptions of heuristic use. Probability spaces were generated that summarized the possible patterns of performance across 16 different sentence structures. The maximum likelihood of comprehension scores of 42 aphasic individuals was then computed for each probability space and the expected scores from the best-fitting points in the space were recorded for comparison to the actual scores. Predictions were then compared using measures of fit quality derived from linear mixed effects models. All three of the metrics that provide the most consistently accurate predictions of patient scores rely on storage costs based on the DLT. Patients appear to employ an Agent-Theme heuristic, but vary in their tendency to accept heuristically generated interpretations. Furthermore, the ability to apply the heuristic may be degraded in proportion to aphasia severity. DLT-derived storage costs provide the best prediction of sentence comprehension patterns in aphasia. Because these costs are estimated by counting incomplete syntactic dependencies at each point in a sentence, this finding suggests that aphasia is associated with reduced availability of cognitive resources for maintaining these dependencies.

Weak-noise limit of a piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equation.

PubMed

Chen, Yaming; Baule, Adrian; Touchette, Hugo; Just, Wolfram

2013-11-01

We investigate the validity and accuracy of weak-noise (saddle-point or instanton) approximations for piecewise-smooth stochastic differential equations (SDEs), taking as an illustrative example a piecewise-constant SDE, which serves as a simple model of Brownian motion with solid friction. For this model, we show that the weak-noise approximation of the path integral correctly reproduces the known propagator of the SDE at lowest order in the noise power, as well as the main features of the exact propagator with higher-order corrections, provided the singularity of the path integral associated with the nonsmooth SDE is treated with some heuristics. We also show that, as in the case of smooth SDEs, the deterministic paths of the noiseless system correctly describe the behavior of the nonsmooth SDE in the low-noise limit. Finally, we consider a smooth regularization of the piecewise-constant SDE and study to what extent this regularization can rectify some of the problems encountered when dealing with discontinuous drifts and singularities in SDEs.

Heuristic Bayesian segmentation for discovery of coexpressed genes within genomic regions.

PubMed

Pehkonen, Petri; Wong, Garry; Törönen, Petri

2010-01-01

Segmentation aims to separate homogeneous areas from the sequential data, and plays a central role in data mining. It has applications ranging from finance to molecular biology, where bioinformatics tasks such as genome data analysis are active application fields. In this paper, we present a novel application of segmentation in locating genomic regions with coexpressed genes. We aim at automated discovery of such regions without requirement for user-given parameters. In order to perform the segmentation within a reasonable time, we use heuristics. Most of the heuristic segmentation algorithms require some decision on the number of segments. This is usually accomplished by using asymptotic model selection methods like the Bayesian information criterion. Such methods are based on some simplification, which can limit their usage. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian model selection to choose the most proper result from heuristic segmentation. Our Bayesian model presents a simple prior for the segmentation solutions with various segment numbers and a modified Dirichlet prior for modeling multinomial data. We show with various artificial data sets in our benchmark system that our model selection criterion has the best overall performance. The application of our method in yeast cell-cycle gene expression data reveals potential active and passive regions of the genome.

On the utility of the ionosonde Doppler-derived EXB drift during the daytime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, L. M.; Sripathi, S.

2016-03-01

Vertical EXB drift measured using the ionosonde Doppler sounding during the daytime suffers from an underestimation of the actual EXB drift because the reflection height of the ionosonde signals is also affected by the photochemistry of the ionosphere. Systematic investigations have indicated a fair/good correlation to exist between the C/NOFS and ionosonde Doppler-measured vertical EXB drift during the daytime over magnetic equator. A detailed analysis, however, indicated that the linear relation between the ionosonde Doppler drift and C/NOFS EXB drift varied with seasons. Thus, solar, seasonal, and also geomagnetic variables were included in the Doppler drift correction, using the artificial neural network-based approach. The RMS error in the neural network was found to be smaller than that in the linear regression analysis. Daytime EXB drift was derived using the neural network which was also used to model the ionospheric redistribution in the SAMI2 model. SAMI2 model reproduced strong (weak) equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) for cases when neural network corrected daytime vertical EXB drift was high (low). Similar features were also observed in GIM TEC maps. Thus, the results indicate that the neural network can be utilized to derive the vertical EXB drift from its proxies, like the ionosonde Doppler drift. These results indicate that the daytime ionosonde measured vertical EXB drift can be relied upon, provided that adequate corrections are applied to it.

We favor formal models of heuristics rather than lists of loose dichotomies: a reply to Evans and Over

PubMed Central

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2009-01-01

In their comment on Marewski et al. (good judgments do not require complex cognition, 2009) Evans and Over (heuristic thinking and human intelligence: a commentary on Marewski, Gaissmaier and Gigerenzer, 2009) conjectured that heuristics can often lead to biases and are not error free. This is a most surprising critique. The computational models of heuristics we have tested allow for quantitative predictions of how many errors a given heuristic will make, and we and others have measured the amount of error by analysis, computer simulation, and experiment. This is clear progress over simply giving heuristics labels, such as availability, that do not allow for quantitative comparisons of errors. Evans and Over argue that the reason people rely on heuristics is the accuracy-effort trade-off. However, the comparison between heuristics and more effortful strategies, such as multiple regression, has shown that there are many situations in which a heuristic is more accurate with less effort. Finally, we do not see how the fast and frugal heuristics program could benefit from a dual-process framework unless the dual-process framework is made more precise. Instead, the dual-process framework could benefit if its two “black boxes” (Type 1 and Type 2 processes) were substituted by computational models of both heuristics and other processes. PMID:19784854

FIELD INVESTIGATIONS OF THE DRIFT SHADOW

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

G. W. Su, T. J. Kneafsey, T. A. Ghezzehei, B. D. Marshall, and P. J. Cook

The ''Drift Shadow'' is defined as the relatively drier region that forms below subsurface cavities or drifts in unsaturated rock. Its existence has been predicted through analytical and numerical models of unsaturated flow. However, these theoretical predictions have not been demonstrated empirically to date. In this project they plan to test the drift shadow concept through field investigations and compare our observations to simulations. Based on modeling studies they have an identified suitable site to perform the study at an inactive mine in a sandstone formation. Pretest modeling studies and preliminary characterization of the site are being used to developmore » the field scale tests.« less

Three-Dimensional Model of Heat and Mass Transfer in Fractured Rocks to Estimate Environmental Conditions Along Heated Drifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedors, R. W.; Painter, S. L.

2004-12-01

Temperature gradients along the thermally-perturbed drifts of the potential high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, will drive natural convection and associated heat and mass transfer along drifts. A three-dimensional, dual-permeability, thermohydrological model of heat and mass transfer was used to estimate the magnitude of temperature gradients along a drift. Temperature conditions along heated drifts are needed to support estimates of repository-edge cooling and as input to computational fluid dynamics modeling of in-drift axial convection and the cold-trap process. Assumptions associated with abstracted heat transfer models and two-dimensional thermohydrological models weakly coupled to mountain-scale thermal models can readily be tested using the three-dimensional thermohydrological model. Although computationally expensive, the fully coupled three-dimensional thermohydrological model is able to incorporate lateral heat transfer, including host rock processes of conduction, convection in gas phase, advection in liquid phase, and latent-heat transfer. Results from the three-dimensional thermohydrological model showed that weakly coupling three-dimensional thermal and two-dimensional thermohydrological models lead to underestimates of temperatures and underestimates of temperature gradients over large portions of the drift. The representative host rock thermal conductivity needed for abstracted heat transfer models are overestimated using the weakly coupled models. If axial flow patterns over large portions of drifts are not impeded by the strong cross-sectional flow patterns imparted by the heat rising directly off the waste package, condensation from the cold-trap process will not be limited to the extreme ends of each drift. Based on the three-dimensional thermohydrological model, axial temperature gradients occur sooner over a larger portion of the drift, though high gradients nearest the edge of the potential repository are dampened. This abstract is an independent product of CNWRA and does not necessarily reflect the view or regulatory position of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

Long-Term Stability of the SGA-WZ Strapdown Airborne Gravimeter

PubMed Central

Cai, Shaokun; Zhang, Kaidong; Wu, Meiping; Huang, Yangming

2012-01-01

Accelerometers are one of the most important sensors in a strapdown airborne gravimeter. The accelerometer's drift determines the long-term accuracy of the strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS), which is the primary and most critical component of the strapdown airborne gravimeter. A long-term stability test lasting 104 days was conducted to determine the characteristics of the strapdown airborne gravimeter's long-term drift. This stability test was based on the first set of strapdown airborne gravimeters built in China, the SGA-WZ. The test results reveal a quadratic drift in the strapdown airborne gravimeter data. A drift model was developed using the static data in the two end sections, and then this model was used to correct the test data. After compensating for the drift, the drift effect improved from 70 mGal to 3.46 mGal with a standard deviation of 0.63 mGal. The quadratic curve better reflects the drift's real characteristics. In comparison with other methodologies, modelling the drift as a quadratic curve was shown to be more appropriate. Furthermore, this method allows the drift to be adjusted throughout the course of the entire campaign. PMID:23112647

Assessing the use of cognitive heuristic representativeness in clinical reasoning.

PubMed

Payne, Velma L; Crowley, Rebecca S; Crowley, Rebecca

2008-11-06

We performed a pilot study to investigate use of the cognitive heuristic Representativeness in clinical reasoning. We tested a set of tasks and assessments to determine whether subjects used the heuristics in reasoning, to obtain initial frequencies of heuristic use and related cognitive errors, and to collect cognitive process data using think-aloud techniques. The study investigates two aspects of the Representativeness heuristic - judging by perceived frequency and representativeness as causal beliefs. Results show that subjects apply both aspects of the heuristic during reasoning, and make errors related to misapplication of these heuristics. Subjects in this study rarely used base rates, showed significant variability in their recall of base rates, demonstrated limited ability to use provided base rates, and favored causal data in diagnosis. We conclude that the tasks and assessments we have developed provide a suitable test-bed to study the cognitive processes underlying heuristic errors.

Assessing Use of Cognitive Heuristic Representativeness in Clinical Reasoning

PubMed Central

Payne, Velma L.; Crowley, Rebecca S.

2008-01-01

We performed a pilot study to investigate use of the cognitive heuristic Representativeness in clinical reasoning. We tested a set of tasks and assessments to determine whether subjects used the heuristics in reasoning, to obtain initial frequencies of heuristic use and related cognitive errors, and to collect cognitive process data using think-aloud techniques. The study investigates two aspects of the Representativeness heuristic - judging by perceived frequency and representativeness as causal beliefs. Results show that subjects apply both aspects of the heuristic during reasoning, and make errors related to misapplication of these heuristics. Subjects in this study rarely used base rates, showed significant variability in their recall of base rates, demonstrated limited ability to use provided base rates, and favored causal data in diagnosis. We conclude that the tasks and assessments we have developed provide a suitable test-bed to study the cognitive processes underlying heuristic errors. PMID:18999140

Aggregate age-at-marriage patterns from individual mate-search heuristics.

PubMed

Todd, Peter M; Billari, Francesco C; Simão, Jorge

2005-08-01

The distribution of age at first marriage shows well-known strong regularities across many countries and recent historical periods. We accounted for these patterns by developing agent-based models that simulate the aggregate behavior of individuals who are searching for marriage partners. Past models assumed fully rational agents with complete knowledge of the marriage market; our simulated agents used psychologically plausible simple heuristic mate search rules that adjust aspiration levels on the basis of a sequence of encounters with potential partners. Substantial individual variation must be included in the models to account for the demographically observed age-at-marriage patterns.

Focus of attention in an activity-based scheduler

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sadeh, Norman; Fox, Mark S.

1989-01-01

Earlier research in job shop scheduling has demonstrated the advantages of opportunistically combining order-based and resource-based scheduling techniques. An even more flexible approach is investigated where each activity is considered a decision point by itself. Heuristics to opportunistically select the next decision point on which to focus attention (i.e., variable ordering heuristics) and the next decision to be tried at this point (i.e., value ordering heuristics) are described that probabilistically account for both activity precedence and resource requirement interactions. Preliminary experimental results indicate that the variable ordering heuristic greatly increases search efficiency. While least constraining value ordering heuristics have been advocated in the literature, the experimental results suggest that other value ordering heuristics combined with our variable-ordering heuristic can produce much better schedules without significantly increasing search.

Online Sensor Drift Compensation for E-Nose Systems Using Domain Adaptation and Extreme Learning Machine

PubMed Central

Luo, Guangchun; Qin, Ke; Wang, Nan; Niu, Weina

2018-01-01

Sensor drift is a common issue in E-Nose systems and various drift compensation methods have received fruitful results in recent years. Although the accuracy for recognizing diverse gases under drift conditions has been largely enhanced, few of these methods considered online processing scenarios. In this paper, we focus on building online drift compensation model by transforming two domain adaptation based methods into their online learning versions, which allow the recognition models to adapt to the changes of sensor responses in a time-efficient manner without losing the high accuracy. Experimental results using three different settings confirm that the proposed methods save large processing time when compared with their offline versions, and outperform other drift compensation methods in recognition accuracy. PMID:29494543

Re-visions of rationality?

PubMed

Newell, Ben R

2005-01-01

The appeal of simple algorithms that take account of both the constraints of human cognitive capacity and the structure of environments has been an enduring theme in cognitive science. A novel version of such a boundedly rational perspective views the mind as containing an 'adaptive toolbox' of specialized cognitive heuristics suited to different problems. Although intuitively appealing, when this version was proposed, empirical evidence for the use of such heuristics was scant. I argue that in the light of empirical studies carried out since then, it is time this 'vision of rationality' was revised. An alternative view based on integrative models rather than collections of heuristics is proposed.

Analysis of two-phase flow inter-subchannel mass and momentum exchanges by the two-fluid model approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ninokata, H.; Deguchi, A.; Kawahara, A.

1995-09-01

A new void drift model for the subchannel analysis method is presented for the thermohydraulics calculation of two-phase flows in rod bundles where the flow model uses a two-fluid formulation for the conservation of mass, momentum and energy. A void drift model is constructed based on the experimental data obtained in a geometrically simple inter-connected two circular channel test sections using air-water as working fluids. The void drift force is assumed to be an origin of void drift velocity components of the two-phase cross-flow in a gap area between two adjacent rods and to overcome the momentum exchanges at themore » phase interface and wall-fluid interface. This void drift force is implemented in the cross flow momentum equations. Computational results have been successfully compared to experimental data available including 3x3 rod bundle data.« less

Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

2000-05-01

A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

Snow drift: acoustic sensors for avalanche warning and research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehning, M.; Naaim, F.; Naaim, M.; Brabec, B.; Doorschot, J.; Durand, Y.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Michaux, J.-L.; Zimmerli, M.

Based on wind tunnel measurements at the CSTB (Jules Verne) facility in Nantes and based on field observations at the SLF experimental site Versuchsfeld Weissfluhjoch, two acoustic wind drift sensors are evaluated against different mechanical snow traps and one optical snow particle counter. The focus of the work is the suitability of the acoustic sensors for applications such as avalanche warning and research. Although the acoustic sensors have not yet reached the accuracy required for typical research applications, they can, however, be useful for snow drift monitoring to help avalanche forecasters. The main problem of the acoustic sensors is a difficult calibration that has to take into account the variable snow properties. Further difficulties arise from snow fall and high wind speeds. However, the sensor is robust and can be operated remotely under harsh conditions. It is emphasized that due to the lack of an accurate reference method for snow drift measurements, all sensors play a role in improving and evaluating snow drift models. Finally, current operational snow drift models and snow drift sensors are compared with respect to their usefulness as an aid for avalanche warning. While drift sensors always make a point measurement, the models are able to give a more representative drift index that is valid for a larger area. Therefore, models have the potential to replace difficult observations such as snow drift in operational applications. Current models on snow drift are either only applicable in flat terrain, are still too complex for an operational application (Lehning et al., 2000b), or offer only limited information on snow drift, such as the SNOWPACK drift index (Lehning et al., 2000a). On the other hand, snow drift is also difficult to measure. While mechanical traps (Mellor 1960; Budd et al., 1966) are probably still the best reference, they require more or less continuous manual operation and are thus not suitable for remote locations or long-term monitoring. Optical sensors (Schmidt, 1977; Brown and Pomeroy, 1989; Sato and Kimura, 1993) have been very successful for research applications, but suffer from the fact that they give a single flux value at one specific height. In addition, they have not been used, to our knowledge, for long-term monitoring applications or at remote sites. New developments of acoustic sensors have taken place recently (Chritin et al., 1999; Font et al., 1998). Jaedicke (2001) gives examples of possible applications of acoustic snow drift sensors. He emphasizes the advantages of acoustic sensors for snow drift monitoring at remote locations, but could not present any evaluation of the accuracy of the measurements. We present a complete evaluation of the new acoustic sensors for snow drift and discuss their applications for research or avalanche warning. We compare the suitability of sensors for operational applications.

Heuristic-Leadership Model: Adapting to Current Training and Changing Times.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Danielson, Mary Ann

A model was developed for training individuals to adapt better to the changing work environment by focusing on the subordinate to supervisor relationship and providing a heuristic approach to leadership. The model emphasizes a heuristic approach to decision-making through the active participation of both members of the dyad. The demand among…

Feeding modes in stream salmonid population models: Is drift feeding the whole story?

Treesearch

Bret Harvey; Steve Railsback

2014-01-01

Drift-feeding models are essential components of broader models that link stream habitat to salmonid populations and community dynamics. But is an additional feeding mode needed for understanding and predicting salmonid population responses to streamflow and other environmental factors? We addressed this question by applying two versions of the individual-based model...

On the utility of the ionosonde Doppler derived EXB drift during the daytime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan Joshi, Lalit; Sripathi, Samireddipelle

2016-07-01

Vertical EXB drift measured using the ionosonde Doppler sounding during the daytime suffers from an underestimation of the actual EXB drift. This is due to the photochemistry that determines the height of the F layer during the daytime, in addition to the zonal electric field. Systematic investigations have indicated a fair/good correlation to exist between the C/NOFS and ionosonde Doppler measured vertical EXB drift during the daytime over magnetic equator. A detailed analysis, however, indicated that the linear relation between the ionosonde Doppler drift and C/NOFS EXB drift varied with seasons. Thus, solar, seasonal and also geomagnetic variables were included in the Doppler drift correction, using the artificial neural network based approach. The RMS error in the neural network was found to be lesser than that in the linear regression analysis. Daytime EXB drift was derived using the neural network which was also used to model the ionospheic redistribution in the SAMI2 model. SAMI2 model reproduced strong (/weak) equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) for cases when neural network corrected daytime vertical EXB drift was high (/low). Similar features were also observed in GIM TEC maps. Thus, the results indicate that the neural network can be utilized to derive the vertical EXB drift from its proxies, like the ionosonde Doppler drift. These results indicate that the daytime ionosonde measured vertical EXB drift can be relied upon, provided adequate corrections are applied to it.

Probabilistic representation in syllogistic reasoning: A theory to integrate mental models and heuristics.

PubMed

Hattori, Masasi

2016-12-01

This paper presents a new theory of syllogistic reasoning. The proposed model assumes there are probabilistic representations of given signature situations. Instead of conducting an exhaustive search, the model constructs an individual-based "logical" mental representation that expresses the most probable state of affairs, and derives a necessary conclusion that is not inconsistent with the model using heuristics based on informativeness. The model is a unification of previous influential models. Its descriptive validity has been evaluated against existing empirical data and two new experiments, and by qualitative analyses based on previous empirical findings, all of which supported the theory. The model's behavior is also consistent with findings in other areas, including working memory capacity. The results indicate that people assume the probabilities of all target events mentioned in a syllogism to be almost equal, which suggests links between syllogistic reasoning and other areas of cognition. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling and Compensation of Random Drift of MEMS Gyroscopes Based on Least Squares Support Vector Machine Optimized by Chaotic Particle Swarm Optimization.

PubMed

Xing, Haifeng; Hou, Bo; Lin, Zhihui; Guo, Meifeng

2017-10-13

MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical System) gyroscopes have been widely applied to various fields, but MEMS gyroscope random drift has nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. It has attracted much attention to model and compensate the random drift because it can improve the precision of inertial devices. This paper has proposed to use wavelet filtering to reduce noise in the original data of MEMS gyroscopes, then reconstruct the random drift data with PSR (phase space reconstruction), and establish the model for the reconstructed data by LSSVM (least squares support vector machine), of which the parameters were optimized using CPSO (chaotic particle swarm optimization). Comparing the effect of modeling the MEMS gyroscope random drift with BP-ANN (back propagation artificial neural network) and the proposed method, the results showed that the latter had a better prediction accuracy. Using the compensation of three groups of MEMS gyroscope random drift data, the standard deviation of three groups of experimental data dropped from 0.00354°/s, 0.00412°/s, and 0.00328°/s to 0.00065°/s, 0.00072°/s and 0.00061°/s, respectively, which demonstrated that the proposed method can reduce the influence of MEMS gyroscope random drift and verified the effectiveness of this method for modeling MEMS gyroscope random drift.

A knowledge-based system for patient image pre-fetching in heterogeneous database environments--modeling, design, and evaluation.

PubMed

Wei, C P; Hu, P J; Sheng, O R

2001-03-01

When performing primary reading on a newly taken radiological examination, a radiologist often needs to reference relevant prior images of the same patient for confirmation or comparison purposes. Support of such image references is of clinical importance and may have significant effects on radiologists' examination reading efficiency, service quality, and work satisfaction. To effectively support such image reference needs, we proposed and developed a knowledge-based patient image pre-fetching system, addressing several challenging requirements of the application that include representation and learning of image reference heuristics and management of data-intensive knowledge inferencing. Moreover, the system demands an extensible and maintainable architecture design capable of effectively adapting to a dynamic environment characterized by heterogeneous and autonomous data source systems. In this paper, we developed a synthesized object-oriented entity- relationship model, a conceptual model appropriate for representing radiologists' prior image reference heuristics that are heuristic oriented and data intensive. We detailed the system architecture and design of the knowledge-based patient image pre-fetching system. Our architecture design is based on a client-mediator-server framework, capable of coping with a dynamic environment characterized by distributed, heterogeneous, and highly autonomous data source systems. To adapt to changes in radiologists' patient prior image reference heuristics, ID3-based multidecision-tree induction and CN2-based multidecision induction learning techniques were developed and evaluated. Experimentally, we examined effects of the pre-fetching system we created on radiologists' examination readings. Preliminary results show that the knowledge-based patient image pre-fetching system more accurately supports radiologists' patient prior image reference needs than the current practice adopted at the study site and that radiologists may become more efficient, consultatively effective, and better satisfied when supported by the pre-fetching system than when relying on the study site's pre-fetching practice.

Magnetometer-enhanced personal locator for tunnels and GPS-denied outdoor environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwanmuang, Surat; Ojeda, Lauro; Borenstein, Johann

2011-06-01

This paper describes recent advances with our earlier developed Personal Dead-reckoning (PDR) system for GPS-denied environments. The PDR system uses a foot-mounted Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) that also houses a three axismagnetometer. In earlier work we developed methods for correcting the drift errors in the accelerometers, thereby allowing very accurate measurements of distance traveled. In addition, we developed a powerful heuristic method for correcting heading errors caused by gyro drift. The heuristics exploit the rectilinear features found in almost all manmade structures and therefore limit this technology to indoor use only. Most recently we integrated a three-axis magnetometer with the IMU, using a Kalman Filter. While it is well known that the ubiquitous magnetic disturbances found in most modern buildings render magnetometers almost completely useless indoors, these sensors are nonetheless very effective in pristine outdoor environments as well as in some tunnels and caves. The present paper describes the integrated magnetometer/IMU system and presents detailed experimental results. Specifically, the paper reports results of an objective test conducted by Firefighters of California's CAL-FIRE. In this particular test, two firefighters in full operational gear and one civilian hiked up a two-mile long mountain trail over rocky, sometimes steeply inclined terrain, each wearing one of our magnetometer-enhanced PDR systems but not using any GPS. During the hour-long hike the average position error was about 20 meters and the maximum error was less than 45 meters, which is about 1.4% of distance traveled for all three PDR systems.

Drifting oscillations in axion monodromy

DOE PAGES

Flauger, Raphael; McAllister, Liam; Silverstein, Eva; ...

2017-10-31

In this paper, we study the pattern of oscillations in the primordial power spectrum in axion monodromy inflation, accounting for drifts in the oscillation period that can be important for comparing to cosmological data. In these models the potential energy has a monomial form over a super-Planckian field range, with superimposed modulations whose size is model-dependent. The amplitude and frequency of the modulations are set by the expectation values of moduli fields. We show that during the course of inflation, the diminishing energy density can induce slow adjustments of the moduli, changing the modulations. We provide templates capturing the effectsmore » of drifting moduli, as well as drifts arising in effective field theory models based on softly broken discrete shift symmetries, and we estimate the precision required to detect a drifting period. A non-drifting template suffices over a wide range of parameters, but for the highest frequencies of interest, or for sufficiently strong drift, it is necessary to include parameters characterizing the change in frequency over the e-folds visible in the CMB. Finally, we use these templates to perform a preliminary search for drifting oscillations in a part of the parameter space in the Planck nominal mission data.« less

Social Outcomes in Childhood Brain Disorder: A Heuristic Integration of Social Neuroscience and Developmental Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeates, Keith Owen; Bigler, Erin D.; Dennis, Maureen; Gerhardt, Cynthia A.; Rubin, Kenneth H.; Stancin, Terry; Taylor, H. Gerry; Vannatta, Kathryn

2007-01-01

The authors propose a heuristic model of the social outcomes of childhood brain disorder that draws on models and methods from both the emerging field of social cognitive neuroscience and the study of social competence in developmental psychology/psychopathology. The heuristic model characterizes the relationships between social adjustment, peer…

Automated Detection of Heuristics and Biases among Pathologists in a Computer-Based System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crowley, Rebecca S.; Legowski, Elizabeth; Medvedeva, Olga; Reitmeyer, Kayse; Tseytlin, Eugene; Castine, Melissa; Jukic, Drazen; Mello-Thoms, Claudia

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) to develop an automated, computer-based method to detect heuristics and biases as pathologists examine virtual slide cases, (2) to measure the frequency and distribution of heuristics and errors across three levels of training, and (3) to examine relationships of heuristics to biases, and biases to…

A Hierarchy of Heuristic-Based Models of Crowd Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degond, P.; Appert-Rolland, C.; Moussaïd, M.; Pettré, J.; Theraulaz, G.

2013-09-01

We derive a hierarchy of kinetic and macroscopic models from a noisy variant of the heuristic behavioral Individual-Based Model of Ngai et al. (Disaster Med. Public Health Prep. 3:191-195, 2009) where pedestrians are supposed to have constant speeds. This IBM supposes that pedestrians seek the best compromise between navigation towards their target and collisions avoidance. We first propose a kinetic model for the probability distribution function of pedestrians. Then, we derive fluid models and propose three different closure relations. The first two closures assume that the velocity distribution function is either a Dirac delta or a von Mises-Fisher distribution respectively. The third closure results from a hydrodynamic limit associated to a Local Thermodynamical Equilibrium. We develop an analogy between this equilibrium and Nash equilibria in a game theoretic framework. In each case, we discuss the features of the models and their suitability for practical use.

Automated detection of heuristics and biases among pathologists in a computer-based system.

PubMed

Crowley, Rebecca S; Legowski, Elizabeth; Medvedeva, Olga; Reitmeyer, Kayse; Tseytlin, Eugene; Castine, Melissa; Jukic, Drazen; Mello-Thoms, Claudia

2013-08-01

The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) to develop an automated, computer-based method to detect heuristics and biases as pathologists examine virtual slide cases, (2) to measure the frequency and distribution of heuristics and errors across three levels of training, and (3) to examine relationships of heuristics to biases, and biases to diagnostic errors. The authors conducted the study using a computer-based system to view and diagnose virtual slide cases. The software recorded participant responses throughout the diagnostic process, and automatically classified participant actions based on definitions of eight common heuristics and/or biases. The authors measured frequency of heuristic use and bias across three levels of training. Biases studied were detected at varying frequencies, with availability and search satisficing observed most frequently. There were few significant differences by level of training. For representativeness and anchoring, the heuristic was used appropriately as often or more often than it was used in biased judgment. Approximately half of the diagnostic errors were associated with one or more biases. We conclude that heuristic use and biases were observed among physicians at all levels of training using the virtual slide system, although their frequencies varied. The system can be employed to detect heuristic use and to test methods for decreasing diagnostic errors resulting from cognitive biases.

The Probability Heuristics Model of Syllogistic Reasoning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chater, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

1999-01-01

Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

Leveraging social system networks in ubiquitous high-data-rate health systems.

PubMed

Massey, Tammara; Marfia, Gustavo; Stoelting, Adam; Tomasi, Riccardo; Spirito, Maurizio A; Sarrafzadeh, Majid; Pau, Giovanni

2011-05-01

Social system networks with high data rates and limited storage will discard data if the system cannot connect and upload the data to a central server. We address the challenge of limited storage capacity in mobile health systems during network partitions with a heuristic that achieves efficiency in storage capacity by modifying the granularity of the medical data during long intercontact periods. Patterns in the connectivity, reception rate, distance, and location are extracted from the social system network and leveraged in the global algorithm and online heuristic. In the global algorithm, the stochastic nature of the data is modeled with maximum likelihood estimation based on the distribution of the reception rates. In the online heuristic, the correlation between system position and the reception rate is combined with patterns in human mobility to estimate the intracontact and intercontact time. The online heuristic performs well with a low data loss of 2.1%-6.1%.

Calibration model maintenance in melamine resin production: Integrating drift detection, smart sample selection and model adaptation.

PubMed

Nikzad-Langerodi, Ramin; Lughofer, Edwin; Cernuda, Carlos; Reischer, Thomas; Kantner, Wolfgang; Pawliczek, Marcin; Brandstetter, Markus

2018-07-12

The physico-chemical properties of Melamine Formaldehyde (MF) based thermosets are largely influenced by the degree of polymerization (DP) in the underlying resin. On-line supervision of the turbidity point by means of vibrational spectroscopy has recently emerged as a promising technique to monitor the DP of MF resins. However, spectroscopic determination of the DP relies on chemometric models, which are usually sensitive to drifts caused by instrumental and/or sample-associated changes occurring over time. In order to detect the time point when drifts start causing prediction bias, we here explore a universal drift detector based on a faded version of the Page-Hinkley (PH) statistic, which we test in three data streams from an industrial MF resin production process. We employ committee disagreement (CD), computed as the variance of model predictions from an ensemble of partial least squares (PLS) models, as a measure for sample-wise prediction uncertainty and use the PH statistic to detect changes in this quantity. We further explore supervised and unsupervised strategies for (semi-)automatic model adaptation upon detection of a drift. For the former, manual reference measurements are requested whenever statistical thresholds on Hotelling's T 2 and/or Q-Residuals are violated. Models are subsequently re-calibrated using weighted partial least squares in order to increase the influence of newer samples, which increases the flexibility when adapting to new (drifted) states. Unsupervised model adaptation is carried out exploiting the dual antecedent-consequent structure of a recently developed fuzzy systems variant of PLS termed FLEXFIS-PLS. In particular, antecedent parts are updated while maintaining the internal structure of the local linear predictors (i.e. the consequents). We found improved drift detection capability of the CD compared to Hotelling's T 2 and Q-Residuals when used in combination with the proposed PH test. Furthermore, we found that active selection of samples by active learning (AL) used for subsequent model adaptation is advantageous compared to passive (random) selection in case that a drift leads to persistent prediction bias allowing more rapid adaptation at lower reference measurement rates. Fully unsupervised adaptation using FLEXFIS-PLS could improve predictive accuracy significantly for light drifts but was not able to fully compensate for prediction bias in case of significant lack of fit w.r.t. the latent variable space. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Priority Heuristic as a Descriptive Model of Risky Decision Making: Comment on Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnbaum, Michael H.

2008-01-01

E. Brandstatter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) contended that their priority heuristic, a type of lexicographic semiorder model, is more accurate than cumulative prospect theory (CPT) or transfer of attention exchange (TAX) models in describing risky decisions. However, there are 4 problems with their argument. First, their heuristic is not…

Generalizing a model beyond the inherence heuristic and applying it to beliefs about objective value.

PubMed

Wood, Graham

2014-10-01

The inherence heuristic is characterized as part of an instantiation of a more general model that describes the interaction between undeveloped intuitions, produced by System 1 heuristics, and developed beliefs, constructed by System 2 reasoning. The general model is described and illustrated by examining another instantiation of the process that constructs belief in objective moral value.

Intuitive Physics: Current Research and Controversies.

PubMed

Kubricht, James R; Holyoak, Keith J; Lu, Hongjing

2017-10-01

Early research in the field of intuitive physics provided extensive evidence that humans succumb to common misconceptions and biases when predicting, judging, and explaining activity in the physical world. Recent work has demonstrated that, across a diverse range of situations, some biases can be explained by the application of normative physical principles to noisy perceptual inputs. However, it remains unclear how knowledge of physical principles is learned, represented, and applied to novel situations. In this review we discuss theoretical advances from heuristic models to knowledge-based, probabilistic simulation models, as well as recent deep-learning models. We also consider how recent work may be reconciled with earlier findings that favored heuristic models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanistic Drifting Forecast Model for A Small Semi-Submersible Drifter Under Tide-Wind-Wave Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei-Na; Huang, Hui-ming; Wang, Yi-gang; Chen, Da-ke; Zhang, lin

2018-03-01

Understanding the drifting motion of a small semi-submersible drifter is of vital importance regarding monitoring surface currents and the floating pollutants in coastal regions. This work addresses this issue by establishing a mechanistic drifting forecast model based on kinetic analysis. Taking tide-wind-wave into consideration, the forecast model is validated against in situ drifting experiment in the Radial Sand Ridges. Model results show good performance with respect to the measured drifting features, characterized by migrating back and forth twice a day with daily downwind displacements. Trajectory models are used to evaluate the influence of the individual hydrodynamic forcing. The tidal current is the fundamental dynamic condition in the Radial Sand Ridges and has the greatest impact on the drifting distance. However, it loses its leading position in the field of the daily displacement of the used drifter. The simulations reveal that different hydrodynamic forces dominate the daily displacement of the used drifter at different wind scales. The wave-induced mass transport has the greatest influence on the daily displacement at Beaufort wind scale 5-6; while wind drag contributes mostly at wind scale 2-4.

Deriving a Set of Privacy Specific Heuristics for the Assessment of PHRs (Personal Health Records).

PubMed

Furano, Riccardo F; Kushniruk, Andre; Barnett, Jeff

2017-01-01

With the emergence of personal health record (PHR) platforms becoming more widely available, this research focused on the development of privacy heuristics to assess PHRs regarding privacy. Existing sets of heuristics are typically not application specific and do not address patient-centric privacy as a main concern prior to undergoing PHR procurement. A set of privacy specific heuristics were developed based on a scoping review of the literature. An internet-based commercially available, vendor specific PHR application was evaluated using the derived set of privacy specific heuristics. The proposed set of privacy specific derived heuristics is explored in detail in relation to ISO 29100. The assessment of the internet-based commercially available, vendor specific PHR application indicated numerous violations. These violations were noted within the study. It is argued that the new derived privacy heuristics should be used in addition to Nielsen's well-established set of heuristics. Privacy specific heuristics could be used to assess PHR portal system-level privacy mechanisms in the procurement process of a PHR application and may prove to be a beneficial form of assessment to prevent the selection of a PHR platform with a poor privacy specific interface design.

An adaptive toolbox approach to the route to expertise in sport.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Rita F; Lobinger, Babett H; Raab, Markus

2014-01-01

Expertise is characterized by fast decision-making which is highly adaptive to new situations. Here we propose that athletes use a toolbox of heuristics which they develop on their route to expertise. The development of heuristics occurs within the context of the athletes' natural abilities, past experiences, developed skills, and situational context, but does not pertain to any of these factors separately. This is a novel approach because it integrates separate factors into a comprehensive heuristic description. The novelty of this approach lies within the integration of separate factors determining expertise into a comprehensive heuristic description. It is our contention that talent identification methods and talent development models should therefore be geared toward the assessment and development of specific heuristics. Specifically, in addition to identifying and developing separate natural abilities and skills as per usual, heuristics should be identified and developed. The application of heuristics to talent and expertise models can bring the field one step away from dichotomized models of nature and nurture toward a comprehensive approach to the route to expertise.

An adaptive toolbox approach to the route to expertise in sport

PubMed Central

de Oliveira, Rita F.; Lobinger, Babett H.; Raab, Markus

2014-01-01

Expertise is characterized by fast decision-making which is highly adaptive to new situations. Here we propose that athletes use a toolbox of heuristics which they develop on their route to expertise. The development of heuristics occurs within the context of the athletes’ natural abilities, past experiences, developed skills, and situational context, but does not pertain to any of these factors separately. This is a novel approach because it integrates separate factors into a comprehensive heuristic description. The novelty of this approach lies within the integration of separate factors determining expertise into a comprehensive heuristic description. It is our contention that talent identification methods and talent development models should therefore be geared toward the assessment and development of specific heuristics. Specifically, in addition to identifying and developing separate natural abilities and skills as per usual, heuristics should be identified and developed. The application of heuristics to talent and expertise models can bring the field one step away from dichotomized models of nature and nurture toward a comprehensive approach to the route to expertise. PMID:25071673

Of mental models, assumptions and heuristics: The case of acids and acid strength

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClary, Lakeisha Michelle

This study explored what cognitive resources (i.e., units of knowledge necessary to learn) first-semester organic chemistry students used to make decisions about acid strength and how those resources guided the prediction, explanation and justification of trends in acid strength. We were specifically interested in the identifying and characterizing the mental models, assumptions and heuristics that students relied upon to make their decisions, in most cases under time constraints. The views about acids and acid strength were investigated for twenty undergraduate students. Data sources for this study included written responses and individual interviews. The data was analyzed using a qualitative methodology to answer five research questions. Data analysis regarding these research questions was based on existing theoretical frameworks: problem representation (Chi, Feltovich & Glaser, 1981), mental models (Johnson-Laird, 1983); intuitive assumptions (Talanquer, 2006), and heuristics (Evans, 2008). These frameworks were combined to develop the framework from which our data were analyzed. Results indicated that first-semester organic chemistry students' use of cognitive resources was complex and dependent on their understanding of the behavior of acids. Expressed mental models were generated using prior knowledge and assumptions about acids and acid strength; these models were then employed to make decisions. Explicit and implicit features of the compounds in each task mediated participants' attention, which triggered the use of a very limited number of heuristics, or shortcut reasoning strategies. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength. Many students, however, were able to apply more effortful analytic reasoning, though correct trends were predicted infrequently. Most students continued to use their mental models, assumptions and heuristics to explain a given trend in acid strength and to justify their predicted trends, but the tasks influenced a few students to shift from one model to another model. An emergent finding from this project was that the problem representation greatly influenced students' ability to make correct predictions in acid strength.

Reduced-Drift Virtual Gyro from an Array of Low-Cost Gyros.

PubMed

Vaccaro, Richard J; Zaki, Ahmed S

2017-02-11

A Kalman filter approach for combining the outputs of an array of high-drift gyros to obtain a virtual lower-drift gyro has been known in the literature for more than a decade. The success of this approach depends on the correlations of the random drift components of the individual gyros. However, no method of estimating these correlations has appeared in the literature. This paper presents an algorithm for obtaining the statistical model for an array of gyros, including the cross-correlations of the individual random drift components. In order to obtain this model, a new statistic, called the "Allan covariance" between two gyros, is introduced. The gyro array model can be used to obtain the Kalman filter-based (KFB) virtual gyro. Instead, we consider a virtual gyro obtained by taking a linear combination of individual gyro outputs. The gyro array model is used to calculate the optimal coefficients, as well as to derive a formula for the drift of the resulting virtual gyro. The drift formula for the optimal linear combination (OLC) virtual gyro is identical to that previously derived for the KFB virtual gyro. Thus, a Kalman filter is not necessary to obtain a minimum drift virtual gyro. The theoretical results of this paper are demonstrated using simulated as well as experimental data. In experimental results with a 28-gyro array, the OLC virtual gyro has a drift spectral density 40 times smaller than that obtained by taking the average of the gyro signals.

Wind selectivity and partial compensation for wind drift among nocturnally migrating passerines

PubMed Central

McLaren, James D.

2012-01-01

A migrating bird’s response to wind can impact its timing, energy expenditure, and path taken. The extent to which nocturnal migrants select departure nights based on wind (wind selectivity) and compensate for wind drift remains unclear. In this paper, we determine the effect of wind selectivity and partial drift compensation on the probability of successfully arriving at a destination area and on overall migration speed. To do so, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate full drift and partial compensation migration of juvenile Willow Warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) along the southwesterly (SW) European migration corridor to the Iberian coast. Various degrees of wind selectivity were tested according to how large a drift angle and transport cost (mechanical energy per unit distance) individuals were willing to tolerate on departure after dusk. In order to assess model results, we used radar measurements of nocturnal migration to estimate the wind selectivity and proportional drift among passerines flying in SW directions. Migration speeds in the IBM were highest for partial compensation populations tolerating at least 25% extra transport cost compared to windless conditions, which allowed more frequent departure opportunities. Drift tolerance affected migration speeds only weakly, whereas arrival probabilities were highest with drift tolerances below 20°. The radar measurements were indicative of low drift tolerance, 25% extra transport cost tolerance and partial compensation. We conclude that along migration corridors with generally nonsupportive winds, juvenile passerines should not strictly select supportive winds but partially compensate for drift to increase their chances for timely and accurate arrival. PMID:22936843

Wind selectivity and partial compensation for wind drift among nocturnally migrating passerines.

PubMed

McLaren, James D; Shamoun-Baranes, Judy; Bouten, Willem

2012-09-01

A migrating bird's response to wind can impact its timing, energy expenditure, and path taken. The extent to which nocturnal migrants select departure nights based on wind (wind selectivity) and compensate for wind drift remains unclear. In this paper, we determine the effect of wind selectivity and partial drift compensation on the probability of successfully arriving at a destination area and on overall migration speed. To do so, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate full drift and partial compensation migration of juvenile Willow Warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus) along the southwesterly (SW) European migration corridor to the Iberian coast. Various degrees of wind selectivity were tested according to how large a drift angle and transport cost (mechanical energy per unit distance) individuals were willing to tolerate on departure after dusk. In order to assess model results, we used radar measurements of nocturnal migration to estimate the wind selectivity and proportional drift among passerines flying in SW directions. Migration speeds in the IBM were highest for partial compensation populations tolerating at least 25% extra transport cost compared to windless conditions, which allowed more frequent departure opportunities. Drift tolerance affected migration speeds only weakly, whereas arrival probabilities were highest with drift tolerances below 20°. The radar measurements were indicative of low drift tolerance, 25% extra transport cost tolerance and partial compensation. We conclude that along migration corridors with generally nonsupportive winds, juvenile passerines should not strictly select supportive winds but partially compensate for drift to increase their chances for timely and accurate arrival.

Multi-Criteria Optimization of the Deployment of a Grid for Rural Electrification Based on a Heuristic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Matos, L.; Aguila-Tellez, A.; Hincapié-Reyes, R. C.; González-Sanchez, J. W.

2017-07-01

In order to design electrification systems, recent mathematical models solve the problem of location, type of electrification components, and the design of possible distribution microgrids. However, due to the amount of points to be electrified increases, the solution to these models require high computational times, thereby becoming unviable practice models. This study posed a new heuristic method for the electrification of rural areas in order to solve the problem. This heuristic algorithm presents the deployment of rural electrification microgrids in the world, by finding routes for optimal placement lines and transformers in transmission and distribution microgrids. The challenge is to obtain a display with equity in losses, considering the capacity constraints of the devices and topology of the land at minimal economic cost. An optimal scenario ensures the electrification of all neighbourhoods to a minimum investment cost in terms of the distance between electric conductors and the amount of transformation devices.

Approach to design neural cryptography: a generalized architecture and a heuristic rule.

PubMed

Mu, Nankun; Liao, Xiaofeng; Huang, Tingwen

2013-06-01

Neural cryptography, a type of public key exchange protocol, is widely considered as an effective method for sharing a common secret key between two neural networks on public channels. How to design neural cryptography remains a great challenge. In this paper, in order to provide an approach to solve this challenge, a generalized network architecture and a significant heuristic rule are designed. The proposed generic framework is named as tree state classification machine (TSCM), which extends and unifies the existing structures, i.e., tree parity machine (TPM) and tree committee machine (TCM). Furthermore, we carefully study and find that the heuristic rule can improve the security of TSCM-based neural cryptography. Therefore, TSCM and the heuristic rule can guide us to designing a great deal of effective neural cryptography candidates, in which it is possible to achieve the more secure instances. Significantly, in the light of TSCM and the heuristic rule, we further expound that our designed neural cryptography outperforms TPM (the most secure model at present) on security. Finally, a series of numerical simulation experiments are provided to verify validity and applicability of our results.

Neural substrates of similarity and rule-based strategies in judgment

PubMed Central

von Helversen, Bettina; Karlsson, Linnea; Rasch, Björn; Rieskamp, Jörg

2014-01-01

Making accurate judgments is a core human competence and a prerequisite for success in many areas of life. Plenty of evidence exists that people can employ different judgment strategies to solve identical judgment problems. In categorization, it has been demonstrated that similarity-based and rule-based strategies are associated with activity in different brain regions. Building on this research, the present work tests whether solving two identical judgment problems recruits different neural substrates depending on people's judgment strategies. Combining cognitive modeling of judgment strategies at the behavioral level with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we compare brain activity when using two archetypal judgment strategies: a similarity-based exemplar strategy and a rule-based heuristic strategy. Using an exemplar-based strategy should recruit areas involved in long-term memory processes to a larger extent than a heuristic strategy. In contrast, using a heuristic strategy should recruit areas involved in the application of rules to a larger extent than an exemplar-based strategy. Largely consistent with our hypotheses, we found that using an exemplar-based strategy led to relatively higher BOLD activity in the anterior prefrontal and inferior parietal cortex, presumably related to retrieval and selective attention processes. In contrast, using a heuristic strategy led to relatively higher activity in areas in the dorsolateral prefrontal and the temporal-parietal cortex associated with cognitive control and information integration. Thus, even when people solve identical judgment problems, different neural substrates can be recruited depending on the judgment strategy involved. PMID:25360099

Heuristic Diagrams as a Tool to Teach History of Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamizo, José A.

2012-05-01

The graphic organizer called here heuristic diagram as an improvement of Gowin's Vee heuristic is proposed as a tool to teach history of science. Heuristic diagrams have the purpose of helping students (or teachers, or researchers) to understand their own research considering that asks and problem-solving are central to scientific activity. The left side originally related in Gowin's Vee with philosophies, theories, models, laws or regularities now agrees with Toulmin's concepts (language, models as representation techniques and application procedures). Mexican science teachers without experience in science education research used the heuristic diagram to learn about the history of chemistry considering also in the left side two different historical times: past and present. Through a semantic differential scale teachers' attitude to the heuristic diagram was evaluated and its usefulness was demonstrated.

Task Assignment Heuristics for Parallel and Distributed CFD Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lopez-Benitez, Noe; Djomehri, M. Jahed; Biswas, Rupak

2003-01-01

This paper proposes a task graph (TG) model to represent a single discrete step of multi-block overset grid computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications. The TG model is then used to not only balance the computational workload across the overset grids but also to reduce inter-grid communication costs. We have developed a set of task assignment heuristics based on the constraints inherent in this class of CFD problems. Two basic assignments, the smallest task first (STF) and the largest task first (LTF), are first presented. They are then systematically costs. To predict the performance of the proposed task assignment heuristics, extensive performance evaluations are conducted on a synthetic TG with tasks defined in terms of the number of grid points in predetermined overlapping grids. A TG derived from a realistic problem with eight million grid points is also used as a test case.

Combination of graph heuristics in producing initial solution of curriculum based course timetabling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahid, Juliana; Hussin, Naimah Mohd

2016-08-01

The construction of population of initial solution is a crucial task in population-based metaheuristic approach for solving curriculum-based university course timetabling problem because it can affect the convergence speed and also the quality of the final solution. This paper presents an exploration on combination of graph heuristics in construction approach in curriculum based course timetabling problem to produce a population of initial solutions. The graph heuristics were set as single and combination of two heuristics. In addition, several ways of assigning courses into room and timeslot are implemented. All settings of heuristics are then tested on the same curriculum based course timetabling problem instances and are compared with each other in terms of number of population produced. The result shows that combination of saturation degree followed by largest degree heuristic produce the highest number of population of initial solutions. The results from this study can be used in the improvement phase of algorithm that uses population of initial solutions.

On the Formation of Emotions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montada, Leo

1989-01-01

Asserts that emotions are based on cognitive appraisals of occurrences. Argues that cognitive models have heuristic value for research and practice and examines objections concerning the validity of those models. Discusses the usefulness of these models for several educational and developmental goals. (KO)

Impact of rheology on probabilistic forecasts of sea ice trajectories: application for search and rescue operations in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabatel, Matthias; Rampal, Pierre; Carrassi, Alberto; Bertino, Laurent; Jones, Christopher K. R. T.

2018-03-01

We present a sensitivity analysis and discuss the probabilistic forecast capabilities of the novel sea ice model neXtSIM used in hindcast mode. The study pertains to the response of the model to the uncertainty on winds using probabilistic forecasts of ice trajectories. neXtSIM is a continuous Lagrangian numerical model that uses an elasto-brittle rheology to simulate the ice response to external forces. The sensitivity analysis is based on a Monte Carlo sampling of 12 members. The response of the model to the uncertainties is evaluated in terms of simulated ice drift distances from their initial positions, and from the mean position of the ensemble, over the mid-term forecast horizon of 10 days. The simulated ice drift is decomposed into advective and diffusive parts that are characterised separately both spatially and temporally and compared to what is obtained with a free-drift model, that is, when the ice rheology does not play any role in the modelled physics of the ice. The seasonal variability of the model sensitivity is presented and shows the role of the ice compactness and rheology in the ice drift response at both local and regional scales in the Arctic. Indeed, the ice drift simulated by neXtSIM in summer is close to the one obtained with the free-drift model, while the more compact and solid ice pack shows a significantly different mechanical and drift behaviour in winter. For the winter period analysed in this study, we also show that, in contrast to the free-drift model, neXtSIM reproduces the sea ice Lagrangian diffusion regimes as found from observed trajectories. The forecast capability of neXtSIM is also evaluated using a large set of real buoy's trajectories and compared to the capability of the free-drift model. We found that neXtSIM performs significantly better in simulating sea ice drift, both in terms of forecast error and as a tool to assist search and rescue operations, although the sources of uncertainties assumed for the present experiment are not sufficient for complete coverage of the observed IABP positions.

Evaluation of the priority heuristic as a descriptive model of risky decision making: comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006).

PubMed

Birnbaum, Michael H

2008-01-01

E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) contended that their priority heuristic, a type of lexicographic semiorder model, is more accurate than cumulative prospect theory (CPT) or transfer of attention exchange (TAX) models in describing risky decisions. However, there are 4 problems with their argument. First, their heuristic is not descriptive of certain data that they did not review. Second, their analysis relied on a global index of fit, percentage of correct predictions of the modal choice. Such analyses can lead to wrong conclusions when parameters are not properly estimated from the data. When parameters are estimated from the data, CPT and TAX fit the D. Kahneman and A. Tversky (1979) data perfectly. Reanalysis shows that TAX and CPT do as well as the priority heuristic for 2 of the data sets reviewed and outperform the priority heuristic for the other 3. Third, when 2 of these sets of data are reexamined, the priority heuristic is seen to make systematic violations. Fourth, new critical implications have been devised for testing the family of lexicographic semiorders including the priority heuristic; new results with these critical tests show systematic evidence against lexicographic semiorder models. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Learning to improve iterative repair scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zweben, Monte; Davis, Eugene

1992-01-01

This paper presents a general learning method for dynamically selecting between repair heuristics in an iterative repair scheduling system. The system employs a version of explanation-based learning called Plausible Explanation-Based Learning (PEBL) that uses multiple examples to confirm conjectured explanations. The basic approach is to conjecture contradictions between a heuristic and statistics that measure the quality of the heuristic. When these contradictions are confirmed, a different heuristic is selected. To motivate the utility of this approach we present an empirical evaluation of the performance of a scheduling system with respect to two different repair strategies. We show that the scheduler that learns to choose between the heuristics outperforms the same scheduler with any one of two heuristics alone.

Heuristic and analytic processes in reasoning: an event-related potential study of belief bias.

PubMed

Banks, Adrian P; Hope, Christopher

2014-03-01

Human reasoning involves both heuristic and analytic processes. This study of belief bias in relational reasoning investigated whether the two processes occur serially or in parallel. Participants evaluated the validity of problems in which the conclusions were either logically valid or invalid and either believable or unbelievable. Problems in which the conclusions presented a conflict between the logically valid response and the believable response elicited a more positive P3 than problems in which there was no conflict. This shows that P3 is influenced by the interaction of belief and logic rather than either of these factors on its own. These findings indicate that belief and logic influence reasoning at the same time, supporting models in which belief-based and logical evaluations occur in parallel but not theories in which belief-based heuristic evaluations precede logical analysis.

Heuristics as Bayesian inference under extreme priors.

PubMed

Parpart, Paula; Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2018-05-01

Simple heuristics are often regarded as tractable decision strategies because they ignore a great deal of information in the input data. One puzzle is why heuristics can outperform full-information models, such as linear regression, which make full use of the available information. These "less-is-more" effects, in which a relatively simpler model outperforms a more complex model, are prevalent throughout cognitive science, and are frequently argued to demonstrate an inherent advantage of simplifying computation or ignoring information. In contrast, we show at the computational level (where algorithmic restrictions are set aside) that it is never optimal to discard information. Through a formal Bayesian analysis, we prove that popular heuristics, such as tallying and take-the-best, are formally equivalent to Bayesian inference under the limit of infinitely strong priors. Varying the strength of the prior yields a continuum of Bayesian models with the heuristics at one end and ordinary regression at the other. Critically, intermediate models perform better across all our simulations, suggesting that down-weighting information with the appropriate prior is preferable to entirely ignoring it. Rather than because of their simplicity, our analyses suggest heuristics perform well because they implement strong priors that approximate the actual structure of the environment. We end by considering how new heuristics could be derived by infinitely strengthening the priors of other Bayesian models. These formal results have implications for work in psychology, machine learning and economics. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aiding USAF/UPT (Undergraduate Pilot Training) Aircrew Scheduling Using Network Flow Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

51 3.4 Heuristic Modifications ............ 55 CHAPTER 4 STUDENT SCHEDULING PROBLEM (LEVEL 2) 4.0 Introduction 4.01 Constraints ............. 60 4.02...Covering" Complete Enumeration . . .. . 71 4.14 Heuristics . ............. 72 4.2 Heuristic Method for the Level 2 Problem 4.21 Step I ............... 73...4.22 Step 2 ............... 74 4.23 Advantages to the Heuristic Method. .... .. 78 4.24 Problems with the Heuristic Method. . ... 79 :,., . * CHAPTER5

Choice Rules and Accumulator Networks

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

This article presents a preference accumulation model that can be used to implement a number of different multi-attribute heuristic choice rules, including the lexicographic rule, the majority of confirming dimensions (tallying) rule and the equal weights rule. The proposed model differs from existing accumulators in terms of attribute representation: Leakage and competition, typically applied only to preference accumulation, are also assumed to be involved in processing attribute values. This allows the model to perform a range of sophisticated attribute-wise comparisons, including comparisons that compute relative rank. The ability of a preference accumulation model composed of leaky competitive networks to mimic symbolic models of heuristic choice suggests that these 2 approaches are not incompatible, and that a unitary cognitive model of preferential choice, based on insights from both these approaches, may be feasible. PMID:28670592

Perspectives of young Chinese Singaporean women on seeking and processing information to decide about vaccinating against human papillomavirus.

PubMed

Basnyat, Iccha; Lim, Cheryl

2017-07-06

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination uptake in Singapore is low among young women. Low uptake has been found to be linked to low awareness. Thus, this study aimed to understand active and passive vaccine information-seeking behavior. Furthermore, guided by the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), this study examined young women's (aged 21-26 years) processing of information they acquired in their decision to get vaccinated. ELM postulates that information processing could be through the central (i.e., logic-based) or peripheral (i.e., heuristic-based) route. Twenty-six in-depth interviews were conducted from January to March 2016. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Two meta-themes-information acquisition and vaccination decision-revealed the heuristic-based information processing was employed. These young women acquired information passively within their social network and actively in healthcare settings. However, they used heuristic cues, such as closeness and trust, to process the information. Similarly, vaccination decisions revealed that women relied on heuristic cues, such as sense of belonging and validation among peers and source credibility and likability in medical settings, in their decision to get vaccinated. The findings of this study highlight that intervention efforts should focus on strengthening social support among personal networks to increase the uptake of the vaccine.

Development of the IMB Model and an Evidence-Based Diabetes Self-management Mobile Application.

PubMed

Jeon, Eunjoo; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

2018-04-01

This study developed a diabetes self-management mobile application based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model, evidence extracted from clinical practice guidelines, and requirements identified through focus group interviews (FGIs) with diabetes patients. We developed a diabetes self-management (DSM) app in accordance with the following four stages of the system development life cycle. The functional and knowledge requirements of the users were extracted through FGIs with 19 diabetes patients. A system diagram, data models, a database, an algorithm, screens, and menus were designed. An Android app and server with an SSL protocol were developed. The DSM app algorithm and heuristics, as well as the usability of the DSM app were evaluated, and then the DSM app was modified based on heuristics and usability evaluation. A total of 11 requirement themes were identified through the FGIs. Sixteen functions and 49 knowledge rules were extracted. The system diagram consisted of a client part and server part, 78 data models, a database with 10 tables, an algorithm, and a menu structure with 6 main menus, and 40 user screens were developed. The DSM app was Android version 4.4 or higher for Bluetooth connectivity. The proficiency and efficiency scores of the algorithm were 90.96% and 92.39%, respectively. Fifteen issues were revealed through the heuristic evaluation, and the app was modified to address three of these issues. It was also modified to address five comments received by the researchers through the usability evaluation. The DSM app was developed based on behavioral change theory through IMB models. It was designed to be evidence-based, user-centered, and effective. It remains necessary to fully evaluate the effect of the DSM app on the DSM behavior changes of diabetes patients.

Development of the IMB Model and an Evidence-Based Diabetes Self-management Mobile Application

PubMed Central

Jeon, Eunjoo

2018-01-01

Objectives This study developed a diabetes self-management mobile application based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model, evidence extracted from clinical practice guidelines, and requirements identified through focus group interviews (FGIs) with diabetes patients. Methods We developed a diabetes self-management (DSM) app in accordance with the following four stages of the system development life cycle. The functional and knowledge requirements of the users were extracted through FGIs with 19 diabetes patients. A system diagram, data models, a database, an algorithm, screens, and menus were designed. An Android app and server with an SSL protocol were developed. The DSM app algorithm and heuristics, as well as the usability of the DSM app were evaluated, and then the DSM app was modified based on heuristics and usability evaluation. Results A total of 11 requirement themes were identified through the FGIs. Sixteen functions and 49 knowledge rules were extracted. The system diagram consisted of a client part and server part, 78 data models, a database with 10 tables, an algorithm, and a menu structure with 6 main menus, and 40 user screens were developed. The DSM app was Android version 4.4 or higher for Bluetooth connectivity. The proficiency and efficiency scores of the algorithm were 90.96% and 92.39%, respectively. Fifteen issues were revealed through the heuristic evaluation, and the app was modified to address three of these issues. It was also modified to address five comments received by the researchers through the usability evaluation. Conclusions The DSM app was developed based on behavioral change theory through IMB models. It was designed to be evidence-based, user-centered, and effective. It remains necessary to fully evaluate the effect of the DSM app on the DSM behavior changes of diabetes patients. PMID:29770246

Better Decomposition Heuristics for the Maximum-Weight Connected Graph Problem Using Betweenness Centrality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Takanori; Bannai, Hideo; Nagasaki, Masao; Miyano, Satoru

We present new decomposition heuristics for finding the optimal solution for the maximum-weight connected graph problem, which is known to be NP-hard. Previous optimal algorithms for solving the problem decompose the input graph into subgraphs using heuristics based on node degree. We propose new heuristics based on betweenness centrality measures, and show through computational experiments that our new heuristics tend to reduce the number of subgraphs in the decomposition, and therefore could lead to the reduction in computational time for finding the optimal solution. The method is further applied to analysis of biological pathway data.

Perceived breast cancer risk: heuristic reasoning and search for a dominance structure.

PubMed

Katapodi, Maria C; Facione, Noreen C; Humphreys, Janice C; Dodd, Marylin J

2005-01-01

Studies suggest that people construct their risk perceptions by using inferential rules called heuristics. The purpose of this study was to identify heuristics that influence perceived breast cancer risk. We examined 11 interviews from women of diverse ethnic/cultural backgrounds who were recruited from community settings. Narratives in which women elaborated about their own breast cancer risk were analyzed with Argument and Heuristic Reasoning Analysis methodology, which is based on applied logic. The availability, simulation, representativeness, affect, and perceived control heuristics, and search for a dominance structure were commonly used for making risk assessments. Risk assessments were based on experiences with an abnormal breast symptom, experiences with affected family members and friends, beliefs about living a healthy lifestyle, and trust in health providers. Assessment of the potential threat of a breast symptom was facilitated by the search for a dominance structure. Experiences with family members and friends were incorporated into risk assessments through the availability, simulation, representativeness, and affect heuristics. Mistrust in health providers led to an inappropriate dependence on the perceived control heuristic. Identified heuristics appear to create predictable biases and suggest that perceived breast cancer risk is based on common cognitive patterns.

Usability Study and Heuristic Evaluation of the Applied Robotics for Installations and Base Operations (ARIBO) Driverless Vehicle Reservation Application ARIBO Mobile

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

ARL-TN-0814 ● MAR 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Usability Study and Heuristic Evaluation of the Applied Robotics for...ARL-TN-0814 ● MAR 2017 US Army Research Laboratory Usability Study and Heuristic Evaluation of the Applied Robotics for...Heuristic Evaluation of the Applied Robotics for Installations and Base Operations (ARIBO) Driverless Vehicle Reservation Application ARIBO Mobile 5a

Heuristics and Problem Solving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abel, Charles F.

2003-01-01

Defines heuristics as cognitive "rules of thumb" that can help problem solvers work more efficiently and effectively. Professors can use a heuristic model of problem solving to guide students in all disciplines through the steps of problem-solving. (SWM)

Fluency Heuristic: A Model of How the Mind Exploits a By-Product of Information Retrieval

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hertwig, Ralph; Herzog, Stefan M.; Schooler, Lael J.; Reimer, Torsten

2008-01-01

Boundedly rational heuristics for inference can be surprisingly accurate and frugal for several reasons. They can exploit environmental structures, co-opt complex capacities, and elude effortful search by exploiting information that automatically arrives on the mental stage. The fluency heuristic is a prime example of a heuristic that makes the…

A Variable-Selection Heuristic for K-Means Clustering.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brusco, Michael J.; Cradit, J. Dennis

2001-01-01

Presents a variable selection heuristic for nonhierarchical (K-means) cluster analysis based on the adjusted Rand index for measuring cluster recovery. Subjected the heuristic to Monte Carlo testing across more than 2,200 datasets. Results indicate that the heuristic is extremely effective at eliminating masking variables. (SLD)

Cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making: a critical review using a systematic search strategy.

PubMed

Blumenthal-Barby, J S; Krieger, Heather

2015-05-01

The role of cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making is of growing interest. The purpose of this study was to determine whether studies on cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making are based on actual or hypothetical decisions and are conducted with populations that are representative of those who typically make the medical decision; to categorize the types of cognitive biases and heuristics found and whether they are found in patients or in medical personnel; and to critically review the studies based on standard methodological quality criteria. Data sources were original, peer-reviewed, empirical studies on cognitive biases and heuristics in medical decision making found in Ovid Medline, PsycINFO, and the CINAHL databases published in 1980-2013. Predefined exclusion criteria were used to identify 213 studies. During data extraction, information was collected on type of bias or heuristic studied, respondent population, decision type, study type (actual or hypothetical), study method, and study conclusion. Of the 213 studies analyzed, 164 (77%) were based on hypothetical vignettes, and 175 (82%) were conducted with representative populations. Nineteen types of cognitive biases and heuristics were found. Only 34% of studies (n = 73) investigated medical personnel, and 68% (n = 145) confirmed the presence of a bias or heuristic. Each methodological quality criterion was satisfied by more than 50% of the studies, except for sample size and validated instruments/questions. Limitations are that existing terms were used to inform search terms, and study inclusion criteria focused strictly on decision making. Most of the studies on biases and heuristics in medical decision making are based on hypothetical vignettes, raising concerns about applicability of these findings to actual decision making. Biases and heuristics have been underinvestigated in medical personnel compared with patients. © The Author(s) 2014.

A heuristic model for working memory deficit in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Qi, Zhen; Yu, Gina P; Tretter, Felix; Pogarell, Oliver; Grace, Anthony A; Voit, Eberhard O

2016-11-01

The life of schizophrenia patients is severely affected by deficits in working memory. In various brain regions, the reciprocal interactions between excitatory glutamatergic neurons and inhibitory GABAergic neurons are crucial. Other neurotransmitters, in particular dopamine, serotonin, acetylcholine, and norepinephrine, modulate the local balance between glutamate and GABA and therefore regulate the function of brain regions. Persistent alterations in the balances between the neurotransmitters can result in working memory deficits. Here we present a heuristic computational model that accounts for interactions among neurotransmitters across various brain regions. The model is based on the concept of a neurochemical interaction matrix at the biochemical level and combines this matrix with a mobile model representing physiological dynamic balances among neurotransmitter systems associated with working memory. The comparison of clinical and simulation results demonstrates that the model output is qualitatively very consistent with the available data. In addition, the model captured how perturbations migrated through different neurotransmitters and brain regions. Results showed that chronic administration of ketamine can cause a variety of imbalances, and application of an antagonist of the D2 receptor in PFC can also induce imbalances but in a very different manner. The heuristic computational model permits a variety of assessments of genetic, biochemical, and pharmacological perturbations and serves as an intuitive tool for explaining clinical and biological observations. The heuristic model is more intuitive than biophysically detailed models. It can serve as an important tool for interdisciplinary communication and even for psychiatric education of patients and relatives. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled "System Genetics" Guest Editor: Dr. Yudong Cai and Dr. Tao Huang. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Behavior Analysis of Individuals' Use of the Fairness Heuristic when Interacting with Groups and Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goltz, Sonia M.

2013-01-01

In the present analysis the author utilizes the groups as patches model (Goltz, 2009, 2010) to extend fairness heuristic theory (Lind, 2001) in which the concept of fairness is thought to be a heuristic that allows individuals to match responses to consequences they receive from groups. In this model, individuals who are reviewing possible groups…

Effects of Drift-Shell Splitting by Chorus Waves on Radiation Belt Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, A. A.; Zheng, L.; O'Brien, T. P., III; Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.; Elkington, S. R.; Albert, J.

2015-12-01

Drift shell splitting in the radiation belts breaks all three adiabatic invariants of charged particle motion via pitch angle scattering, and produces new diffusion terms that fully populate the diffusion tensor in the Fokker-Planck equation. Based on the stochastic differential equation method, the Radbelt Electron Model (REM) simulation code allows us to solve such a fully three-dimensional Fokker-Planck equation, and to elucidate the sources and transport mechanisms behind the phase space density variations. REM has been used to perform simulations with an empirical initial phase space density followed by a seed electron injection, with a Tsyganenko 1989 magnetic field model, and with chorus wave and ULF wave diffusion models. Our simulation results show that adding drift shell splitting changes the phase space location of the source to smaller L shells, which typically reduces local electron energization (compared to neglecting drift-shell splitting effects). Simulation results with and without drift-shell splitting effects are compared with Van Allen Probe measurements.

Parameter estimation using meta-heuristics in systems biology: a comprehensive review.

PubMed

Sun, Jianyong; Garibaldi, Jonathan M; Hodgman, Charlie

2012-01-01

This paper gives a comprehensive review of the application of meta-heuristics to optimization problems in systems biology, mainly focussing on the parameter estimation problem (also called the inverse problem or model calibration). It is intended for either the system biologist who wishes to learn more about the various optimization techniques available and/or the meta-heuristic optimizer who is interested in applying such techniques to problems in systems biology. First, the parameter estimation problems emerging from different areas of systems biology are described from the point of view of machine learning. Brief descriptions of various meta-heuristics developed for these problems follow, along with outlines of their advantages and disadvantages. Several important issues in applying meta-heuristics to the systems biology modelling problem are addressed, including the reliability and identifiability of model parameters, optimal design of experiments, and so on. Finally, we highlight some possible future research directions in this field.

Design and usability of heuristic-based deliberation tools for women facing amniocentesis.

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Wegwarth, Odette; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2012-03-01

Evidence suggests that in decision contexts characterized by uncertainty and time constraints (e.g. health-care decisions), fast and frugal decision-making strategies (heuristics) may perform better than complex rules of reasoning. To examine whether it is possible to design deliberation components in decision support interventions using simple models (fast and frugal heuristics). The 'Take The Best' heuristic (i.e. selection of a 'most important reason') and 'The Tallying' integration algorithm (i.e. unitary weighing of pros and cons) were used to develop two deliberation components embedded in a Web-based decision support intervention for women facing amniocentesis testing. Ten researchers (recruited from 15), nine health-care providers (recruited from 28) and ten pregnant women (recruited from 14) who had recently been offered amniocentesis testing appraised evolving versions of 'your most important reason' (Take The Best) and 'weighing it up' (Tallying). Most researchers found the tools useful in facilitating decision making although emphasized the need for simple instructions and clear layouts. Health-care providers however expressed concerns regarding the usability and clarity of the tools. By contrast, 7 out of 10 pregnant women found the tools useful in weighing up the pros and cons of each option, helpful in structuring and clarifying their thoughts and visualizing their decision efforts. Several pregnant women felt that 'weighing it up' and 'your most important reason' were not appropriate when facing such a difficult and emotional decision. Theoretical approaches based on fast and frugal heuristics can be used to develop deliberation tools that provide helpful support to patients facing real-world decisions about amniocentesis. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A multi-stage heuristic algorithm for matching problem in the modified miniload automated storage and retrieval system of e-commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenrui; Wu, Yaohua; Wu, Yingying

2016-05-01

E-commerce, as an emerging marketing mode, has attracted more and more attention and gradually changed the way of our life. However, the existing layout of distribution centers can't fulfill the storage and picking demands of e-commerce sufficiently. In this paper, a modified miniload automated storage/retrieval system is designed to fit these new characteristics of e-commerce in logistics. Meanwhile, a matching problem, concerning with the improvement of picking efficiency in new system, is studied in this paper. The problem is how to reduce the travelling distance of totes between aisles and picking stations. A multi-stage heuristic algorithm is proposed based on statement and model of this problem. The main idea of this algorithm is, with some heuristic strategies based on similarity coefficients, minimizing the transportations of items which can not arrive in the destination picking stations just through direct conveyors. The experimental results based on the cases generated by computers show that the average reduced rate of indirect transport times can reach 14.36% with the application of multi-stage heuristic algorithm. For the cases from a real e-commerce distribution center, the order processing time can be reduced from 11.20 h to 10.06 h with the help of the modified system and the proposed algorithm. In summary, this research proposed a modified system and a multi-stage heuristic algorithm that can reduce the travelling distance of totes effectively and improve the whole performance of e-commerce distribution center.

Trends Concerning Four Misconceptions in Students' Intuitively-Based Probabilistic Reasoning Sourced in the Heuristic of Representativeness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kustos, Paul Nicholas

2010-01-01

Student difficulty in the study of probability arises in intuitively-based misconceptions derived from heuristics. One such heuristic, the one of note for this research study, is that of representativeness, in which an individual informally assesses the probability of an event based on the degree to which the event is similar to the sample from…

Social Outcomes in Childhood Brain Disorder: A Heuristic Integration of Social Neuroscience and Developmental Psychology

PubMed Central

Yeates, Keith Owen; Bigler, Erin D.; Dennis, Maureen; Gerhardt, Cynthia A.; Rubin, Kenneth H.; Stancin, Terry; Taylor, H. Gerry; Vannatta, Kathryn

2010-01-01

The authors propose a heuristic model of the social outcomes of childhood brain disorder that draws on models and methods from both the emerging field of social cognitive neuroscience and the study of social competence in developmental psychology/psychopathology. The heuristic model characterizes the relationships between social adjustment, peer interactions and relationships, social problem solving and communication, social-affective and cognitive-executive processes, and their neural substrates. The model is illustrated by research on a specific form of childhood brain disorder, traumatic brain injury. The heuristic model may promote research regarding the neural and cognitive-affective substrates of children’s social development. It also may engender more precise methods of measuring impairments and disabilities in children with brain disorder and suggest ways to promote their social adaptation. PMID:17469991

Modeling Food Delivery Dynamics For Juvenile Salmonids Under Variable Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Utz, R.; Anderson, K.; Nisbet, R.

2010-12-01

Traditional approaches for assessing instream flow needs for salmonids have typically focused on the importance of physical habitat in determining fish habitat selection. This somewhat simplistic approach does not account for differences in food delivery rates to salmonids that arise due to spatial variability in river morphology, hydraulics and temporal variations in the flow regime. Explicitly linking how changes in the flow regime influences food delivery dynamics is an important step in advancing process-based bioenergetic models that seek to predict growth rates of salmonids across various life-stages. Here we investigate how food delivery rates for juvenile salmonids vary both spatially and with flow magnitude in a meandering reach of the Merced River, CA. We utilize a two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model and discrete particle tracking algorithm to simulate invertebrate drift transport rates at baseflow and a near-bankfull discharge. Modeling results indicate that at baseflow, the maximum drift density occurs in the channel thalweg, while drift densities decrease towards the channel margins due to the process of organisms settling out of the drift. During high-flow events, typical of spring dam-releases, the invertebrate drift transport pathway follows a similar trajectory along the high velocity core and the drift concentrations are greatest in the channel centerline, though the zone of invertebrate transport occupies a greater fraction of the channel width. Based on invertebrate supply rates alone, feeding juvenile salmonids would be expected to be distributed down the channel centerline where the maximum predicted food delivery rates are located in this reach. However, flow velocities in these channel sections are beyond maximum sustainable swimming speeds for most juvenile salmonids. Our preliminary findings suggest that a lack of low velocity refuge may prevent juvenile salmonids from deriving energy from the areas with maximum drift density in this reach. Future efforts will focus on integration of food delivery and bioenergetic models to account for conflicting demands of maximizing food intake while minimizing the energetic costs of swimming.

Using heuristic evaluations to assess the safety of health information systems.

PubMed

Carvalho, Christopher J; Borycki, Elizabeth M; Kushniruk, Andre W

2009-01-01

Health information systems (HISs) are typically seen as a mechanism for reducing medical errors. There is, however, evidence to prove that technology may actually be the cause of errors. As a result, it is crucial to fully test any system prior to its implementation. At present, evidence-based evaluation heuristics do not exist for assessing aspects of interface design that lead to medical errors. A three phase study was conducted to develop evidence-based heuristics for evaluating interfaces. Phase 1 consisted of a systematic review of the literature. In Phase 2 a comprehensive list of 33 evaluation heuristics was developed based on the review that could be used to test for potential technology induced errors. Phase 3 involved applying these healthcare specific heuristics to evaluate a HIS.

A bi-objective model for robust yard allocation scheduling for outbound containers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Changchun; Zhang, Canrong; Zheng, Li

2017-01-01

This article examines the yard allocation problem for outbound containers, with consideration of uncertainty factors, mainly including the arrival and operation time of calling vessels. Based on the time buffer inserting method, a bi-objective model is constructed to minimize the total operational cost and to maximize the robustness of fighting against the uncertainty. Due to the NP-hardness of the constructed model, a two-stage heuristic is developed to solve the problem. In the first stage, initial solutions are obtained by a greedy algorithm that looks n-steps ahead with the uncertainty factors set as their respective expected values; in the second stage, based on the solutions obtained in the first stage and with consideration of uncertainty factors, a neighbourhood search heuristic is employed to generate robust solutions that can fight better against the fluctuation of uncertainty factors. Finally, extensive numerical experiments are conducted to test the performance of the proposed method.

Approximate Stokes Drift Profiles and their use in Ocean Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Oyvind; Bidlot, Jea-Raymond; Janssen, Peter A. E. M.; Mogensen, Kristian

2016-04-01

Deep-water approximations to the Stokes drift velocity profile are explored as alternatives to the monochromatic profile. The alternative profiles investigated rely on the same two quantities required for the monochromatic profile, viz the Stokes transport and the surface Stokes drift velocity. Comparisons against parametric spectra and profiles under wave spectra from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and buoy observations reveal much better agreement than the monochromatic profile even for complex sea states. That the profiles give a closer match and a more correct shear has implications for ocean circulation models since the Coriolis-Stokes force depends on the magnitude and direction of the Stokes drift profile and Langmuir turbulence parameterizations depend sensitively on the shear of the profile. Of the two Stokes drift profiles explored here, the profile based on the Phillips spectrum is by far the best. In particular, the shear near the surface is almost identical to that influenced by the f-5 tail of spectral wave models. The NEMO general circulation ocean model was recently extended to incorporate the Stokes-Coriolis force along with two other wave-related effects. The ECWMF coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean ensemble forecast system now includes these wave effects in the ocean model component (NEMO).

Cultural heuristics in risk assessment of HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Bailey, Ajay; Hutter, Inge

2006-01-01

Behaviour change models in HIV prevention tend to consider that risky sexual behaviours reflect risk assessments and that by changing risk assessments behaviour can be changed. Risk assessment is however culturally constructed. Individuals use heuristics or bounded cognitive devices derived from broader cultural meaning systems to rationalize uncertainty. In this study, we identify some of the cultural heuristics used by migrant men in Goa, India to assess their risk of HIV infection from different sexual partners. Data derives from a series of in-depth interviews and a locally informed survey. Cultural heuristics identified include visual heuristics, heuristics of gender roles, vigilance and trust. The paper argues that, for more culturally informed HIV/AIDS behaviour change interventions, knowledge of cultural heuristics is essential.

Meta-heuristic algorithms as tools for hydrological science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Do Guen; Kim, Joong Hoon

2014-12-01

In this paper, meta-heuristic optimization techniques are introduced and their applications to water resources engineering, particularly in hydrological science are introduced. In recent years, meta-heuristic optimization techniques have been introduced that can overcome the problems inherent in iterative simulations. These methods are able to find good solutions and require limited computation time and memory use without requiring complex derivatives. Simulation-based meta-heuristic methods such as Genetic algorithms (GAs) and Harmony Search (HS) have powerful searching abilities, which can occasionally overcome the several drawbacks of traditional mathematical methods. For example, HS algorithms can be conceptualized from a musical performance process and used to achieve better harmony; such optimization algorithms seek a near global optimum determined by the value of an objective function, providing a more robust determination of musical performance than can be achieved through typical aesthetic estimation. In this paper, meta-heuristic algorithms and their applications (focus on GAs and HS) in hydrological science are discussed by subject, including a review of existing literature in the field. Then, recent trends in optimization are presented and a relatively new technique such as Smallest Small World Cellular Harmony Search (SSWCHS) is briefly introduced, with a summary of promising results obtained in previous studies. As a result, previous studies have demonstrated that meta-heuristic algorithms are effective tools for the development of hydrological models and the management of water resources.

Using Heuristic Task Analysis to Create Web-Based Instructional Design Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiester, Herbert R.

2010-01-01

The first purpose of this study was to identify procedural and heuristic knowledge used when creating web-based instruction. The second purpose of this study was to develop suggestions for improving the Heuristic Task Analysis process, a technique for eliciting, analyzing, and representing expertise in cognitively complex tasks. Three expert…

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices Without Trade-Offs

PubMed Central

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, we generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (i) Allais' paradox, (ii) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (iii) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (lottery tickets), (iv) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (buying insurance), (v) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (vi) certainty effect, (vii) possibility effect, and (viii) intransitivities. We test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared to previously proposed heuristics and three modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. PMID:16637767

Better ILP models for haplotype assembly.

PubMed

Etemadi, Maryam; Bagherian, Mehri; Chen, Zhi-Zhong; Wang, Lusheng

2018-02-19

The haplotype assembly problem for diploid is to find a pair of haplotypes from a given set of aligned Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (SNP) fragments (reads). It has many applications in association studies, drug design, and genetic research. Since this problem is computationally hard, both heuristic and exact algorithms have been designed for it. Although exact algorithms are much slower, they are still of great interest because they usually output significantly better solutions than heuristic algorithms in terms of popular measures such as the Minimum Error Correction (MEC) score, the number of switch errors, and the QAN50 score. Exact algorithms are also valuable because they can be used to witness how good a heuristic algorithm is. The best known exact algorithm is based on integer linear programming (ILP) and it is known that ILP can also be used to improve the output quality of every heuristic algorithm with a little decline in speed. Therefore, faster ILP models for the problem are highly demanded. As in previous studies, we consider not only the general case of the problem but also its all-heterozygous case where we assume that if a column of the input read matrix contains at least one 0 and one 1, then it corresponds to a heterozygous SNP site. For both cases, we design new ILP models for the haplotype assembly problem which aim at minimizing the MEC score. The new models are theoretically better because they contain significantly fewer constraints. More importantly, our experimental results show that for both simulated and real datasets, the new model for the all-heterozygous (respectively, general) case can usually be solved via CPLEX (an ILP solver) at least 5 times (respectively, twice) faster than the previous bests. Indeed, the running time can sometimes be 41 times better. This paper proposes a new ILP model for the haplotype assembly problem and its all-heterozygous case, respectively. Experiments with both real and simulated datasets show that the new models can be solved within much shorter time by CPLEX than the previous bests. We believe that the models can be used to improve heuristic algorithms as well.

Exact and heuristic algorithms for Space Information Flow.

PubMed

Uwitonze, Alfred; Huang, Jiaqing; Ye, Yuanqing; Cheng, Wenqing; Li, Zongpeng

2018-01-01

Space Information Flow (SIF) is a new promising research area that studies network coding in geometric space, such as Euclidean space. The design of algorithms that compute the optimal SIF solutions remains one of the key open problems in SIF. This work proposes the first exact SIF algorithm and a heuristic SIF algorithm that compute min-cost multicast network coding for N (N ≥ 3) given terminal nodes in 2-D Euclidean space. Furthermore, we find that the Butterfly network in Euclidean space is the second example besides the Pentagram network where SIF is strictly better than Euclidean Steiner minimal tree. The exact algorithm design is based on two key techniques: Delaunay triangulation and linear programming. Delaunay triangulation technique helps to find practically good candidate relay nodes, after which a min-cost multicast linear programming model is solved over the terminal nodes and the candidate relay nodes, to compute the optimal multicast network topology, including the optimal relay nodes selected by linear programming from all the candidate relay nodes and the flow rates on the connection links. The heuristic algorithm design is also based on Delaunay triangulation and linear programming techniques. The exact algorithm can achieve the optimal SIF solution with an exponential computational complexity, while the heuristic algorithm can achieve the sub-optimal SIF solution with a polynomial computational complexity. We prove the correctness of the exact SIF algorithm. The simulation results show the effectiveness of the heuristic SIF algorithm.

The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

PubMed

Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

2004-01-01

The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

Perceptual decision making: drift-diffusion model is equivalent to a Bayesian model

PubMed Central

Bitzer, Sebastian; Park, Hame; Blankenburg, Felix; Kiebel, Stefan J.

2014-01-01

Behavioral data obtained with perceptual decision making experiments are typically analyzed with the drift-diffusion model. This parsimonious model accumulates noisy pieces of evidence toward a decision bound to explain the accuracy and reaction times of subjects. Recently, Bayesian models have been proposed to explain how the brain extracts information from noisy input as typically presented in perceptual decision making tasks. It has long been known that the drift-diffusion model is tightly linked with such functional Bayesian models but the precise relationship of the two mechanisms was never made explicit. Using a Bayesian model, we derived the equations which relate parameter values between these models. In practice we show that this equivalence is useful when fitting multi-subject data. We further show that the Bayesian model suggests different decision variables which all predict equal responses and discuss how these may be discriminated based on neural correlates of accumulated evidence. In addition, we discuss extensions to the Bayesian model which would be difficult to derive for the drift-diffusion model. We suggest that these and other extensions may be highly useful for deriving new experiments which test novel hypotheses. PMID:24616689

How do people judge risks: availability heuristic, affect heuristic, or both?

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Steinmann, Florian

2012-09-01

How does the public reckon which risks to be concerned about? The availability heuristic and the affect heuristic are key accounts of how laypeople judge risks. Yet, these two accounts have never been systematically tested against each other, nor have their predictive powers been examined across different measures of the public's risk perception. In two studies, we gauged risk perception in student samples by employing three measures (frequency, value of a statistical life, and perceived risk) and by using a homogeneous (cancer) and a classic set of heterogeneous causes of death. Based on these judgments of risk, we tested precise models of the availability heuristic and the affect heuristic and different definitions of availability and affect. Overall, availability-by-recall, a heuristic that exploits people's direct experience of occurrences of risks in their social network, conformed to people's responses best. We also found direct experience to carry a high degree of ecological validity (and one that clearly surpasses that of affective information). However, the relative impact of affective information (as compared to availability) proved more pronounced in value-of-a-statistical-life and perceived-risk judgments than in risk-frequency judgments. Encounters with risks in the media, in contrast, played a negligible role in people's judgments. Going beyond the assumption of exclusive reliance on either availability or affect, we also found evidence for mechanisms that combine both, either sequentially or in a composite fashion. We conclude with a discussion of policy implications of our results, including how to foster people's risk calibration and the success of education campaigns.

Fear and Loving in Las Vegas: Evolution, Emotion, and Persuasion.

PubMed

Griskevicius, Vladas; Goldstein, Noah J; Mortensen, Chad R; Sundie, Jill M; Cialdini, Robert B; Kenrick, Douglas T

2009-06-01

How do arousal-inducing contexts, such as frightening or romantic television programs, influence the effectiveness of basic persuasion heuristics? Different predictions are made by three theoretical models: A general arousal model predicts that arousal should increase effectiveness of heuristics; an affective valence model predicts that effectiveness should depend on whether the context elicits positive or negative affect; an evolutionary model predicts that persuasiveness should depend on both the specific emotion that is elicited and the content of the particular heuristic. Three experiments examined how fear-inducing versus romantic contexts influenced the effectiveness of two widely used heuristics-social proof (e.g., "most popular") and scarcity (e.g., "limited edition"). Results supported predictions from an evolutionary model, showing that fear can lead scarcity appeals to be counter-persuasive, and that romantic desire can lead social proof appeals to be counter-persuasive. The findings highlight how an evolutionary theoretical approach can lead to novel theoretical and practical marketing insights.

Basic Research on Adaptive Model Algorithmic Control

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

Control Conference. Richalet, J., A. Rault, J.L. Testud and J. Papon (1978). Model predictive heuristic control: applications to industrial...pp.977-982. Richalet, J., A. Rault, J. L. Testud and J. Papon (1978). Model predictive heuristic control: applications to industrial processes

Improving delivery routes using combined heuristic and optimization in a consumer goods distribution company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wibisono, E.; Santoso, A.; Sunaryo, M. A.

2017-11-01

XYZ is a distributor of various consumer goods products. The company plans its delivery routes daily and in order to obtain route construction in a short amount of time, it simplifies the process by assigning drivers based on geographic regions. This approach results in inefficient use of vehicles leading to imbalance workloads. In this paper, we propose a combined method involving heuristic and optimization to obtain better solutions in acceptable computation time. The heuristic is based on a time-oriented, nearest neighbor (TONN) to form clusters if the number of locations is higher than a certain value. The optimization part uses a mathematical modeling formulation based on vehicle routing problem that considers heterogeneous vehicles, time windows, and fixed costs (HVRPTWF) and is used to solve routing problem in clusters. A case study using data from one month of the company’s operations is analyzed, and data from one day of operations are detailed in this paper. The analysis shows that the proposed method results in 24% cost savings on that month, but it can be as high as 54% in a day.

Memory-Based Decision-Making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khader, Patrick H.; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rosler, Frank

2011-01-01

Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by…

Gyrokinetic-water-bag modeling of low-frequency instabilities in a laboratory magnetized plasma column

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gravier, E.; Klein, R.; Morel, P.; Besse, N.; Bertrand, P.

2008-12-01

A new model is presented, named collisional-gyro-water-bag (CGWB), which describes the collisional drift waves and ion-temperature-gradient (ITG) instabilities in a plasma column. This model is based on the kinetic gyro-water-bag approach recently developed [P. Morel et al., Phys. Plasmas 14, 112109 (2007)] to investigate ion-temperature-gradient modes. In CGWB electron-neutral collisions have been introduced and are now taken into account. The model has been validated by comparing CGWB linear analysis with other models previously proposed and experimental results as well. Kinetic effects on collisional drift waves are investigated, resulting in a less effective growth rate, and the transition from collisional drift waves to ITG instability depending on the ion temperature gradient is studied.

Design Heuristics for Authentic Simulation-Based Learning Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ney, Muriel; Gonçalves, Celso; Balacheff, Nicolas

2014-01-01

Simulation games are games for learning based on a reference in the real world. We propose a model for authenticity in this context as a result of a compromise among learning, playing and realism. In the health game used to apply this model, students interact with characters in the game through phone messages, mail messages, SMS and video.…

The heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning: extension and evaluation.

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan St B T

2006-06-01

An extensively revised heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning is presented incorporating three principles of hypothetical thinking. The theory assumes that reasoning and judgment are facilitated by the formation of epistemic mental models that are generated one at a time (singularity principle) by preconscious heuristic processes that contextualize problems in such a way as to maximize relevance to current goals (relevance principle). Analytic processes evaluate these models but tend to accept them unless there is good reason to reject them (satisficing principle). At a minimum, analytic processing of models is required so as to generate inferences or judgments relevant to the task instructions, but more active intervention may result in modification or replacement of default models generated by the heuristic system. Evidence for this theory is provided by a review of a wide range of literature on thinking and reasoning.

Numerical implementation, verification and validation of two-phase flow four-equation drift flux model with Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method

DOE PAGES

Zou, Ling; Zhao, Haihua; Zhang, Hongbin

2016-08-24

This study presents a numerical investigation on using the Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov (JFNK) method to solve the two-phase flow four-equation drift flux model with realistic constitutive correlations (‘closure models’). The drift flux model is based on Isshi and his collaborators’ work. Additional constitutive correlations for vertical channel flow, such as two-phase flow pressure drop, flow regime map, wall boiling and interfacial heat transfer models, were taken from the RELAP5-3D Code Manual and included to complete the model. The staggered grid finite volume method and fully implicit backward Euler method was used for the spatial discretization and time integration schemes, respectively. Themore » Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method shows no difficulty in solving the two-phase flow drift flux model with a discrete flow regime map. In addition to the Jacobian-free approach, the preconditioning matrix is obtained by using the default finite differencing method provided in the PETSc package, and consequently the labor-intensive implementation of complex analytical Jacobian matrix is avoided. Extensive and successful numerical verification and validation have been performed to prove the correct implementation of the models and methods. Code-to-code comparison with RELAP5-3D has further demonstrated the successful implementation of the drift flux model.« less

Probability or Reasoning: Current Thinking and Realistic Strategies for Improved Medical Decisions

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature review of cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could be effectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimation might not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decision making (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy. PMID:29209469

Probability or Reasoning: Current Thinking and Realistic Strategies for Improved Medical Decisions.

PubMed

Nantha, Yogarabindranath Swarna

2017-11-01

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practice through methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulating factors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicians could avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively, they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature review of cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could be effectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimation might not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decision making (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy.

Resolving critical dimension drift over time in plasma etching through virtual metrology based wafer-to-wafer control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ho Ki; Baek, Kye Hyun; Shin, Kyoungsub

2017-06-01

As semiconductor devices are scaled down to sub-20 nm, process window of plasma etching gets extremely small so that process drift or shift becomes more significant. This study addresses one of typical process drift issues caused by consumable parts erosion over time and provides feasible solution by using virtual metrology (VM) based wafer-to-wafer control. Since erosion of a shower head has center-to-edge area dependency, critical dimensions (CDs) at the wafer center and edge area get reversed over time. That CD trend is successfully estimated on a wafer-to-wafer basis by a partial least square (PLS) model which combines variables from optical emission spectroscopy (OES), VI-probe and equipment state gauges. R 2 of the PLS model reaches 0.89 and its prediction performance is confirmed in a mass production line. As a result, the model can be exploited as a VM for wafer-to-wafer control. With the VM, advanced process control (APC) strategy is implemented to solve the CD drift. Three σ of CD across wafer is improved from the range (1.3-2.9 nm) to the range (0.79-1.7 nm). Hopefully, results introduced in this paper will contribute to accelerating implementation of VM based APC strategy in semiconductor industry.

Use of Heuristics to Facilitate Scientific Discovery Learning in a Simulation Learning Environment in a Physics Domain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veermans, Koen; van Joolingen, Wouter; de Jong, Ton

2006-01-01

This article describes a study into the role of heuristic support in facilitating discovery learning through simulation-based learning. The study compares the use of two such learning environments in the physics domain of collisions. In one learning environment (implicit heuristics) heuristics are only used to provide the learner with guidance…

Dissipative closures for statistical moments, fluid moments, and subgrid scales in plasma turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Stephen Andrew

1997-11-01

Closures are necessary in the study physical systems with large numbers of degrees of freedom when it is only possible to compute a small number of modes. The modes that are to be computed, the resolved modes, are coupled to unresolved modes that must be estimated. This thesis focuses on dissipative closures models for two problems that arises in the study of plasma turbulence: the fluid moment closure problem and the subgrid scale closure problem. The fluid moment closures of Hammett and Perkins (1990) were originally applied to a one-dimensional kinetic equation, the Vlasov equation. These closures are generalized in this thesis and applied to the stochastic oscillator problem, a standard paradigm problem for statistical closures. The linear theory of the Hammett- Perkins closures is shown to converge with increasing numbers of moments. A novel parameterized hyperviscosity is proposed for two- dimensional drift-wave turbulence. The magnitude and exponent of the hyperviscosity are expressed as functions of the large scale advection velocity. Traditionally hyperviscosities are applied to simulations with a fixed exponent that must be arbitrarily chosen. Expressing the exponent as a function of the simulation parameters eliminates this ambiguity. These functions are parameterized by comparing the hyperviscous dissipation to the subgrid dissipation calculated from direct numerical simulations. Tests of the parameterization demonstrate that it performs better than using no additional damping term or than using a standard hyperviscosity. Heuristic arguments are presented to extend this hyperviscosity model to three-dimensional (3D) drift-wave turbulence where eddies are highly elongated along the field line. Preliminary results indicate that this generalized 3D hyperviscosity is capable of reducing the resolution requirements for 3D gyrofluid turbulence simulations.

An EKV-based high voltage MOSFET model with improved mobility and drift model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauhan, Yogesh Singh; Gillon, Renaud; Bakeroot, Benoit; Krummenacher, Francois; Declercq, Michel; Ionescu, Adrian Mihai

2007-11-01

An EKV-based high voltage MOSFET model is presented. The intrinsic channel model is derived based on the charge based EKV-formalism. An improved mobility model is used for the modeling of the intrinsic channel to improve the DC characteristics. The model uses second order dependence on the gate bias and an extra parameter for the smoothening of the saturation voltage of the intrinsic drain. An improved drift model [Chauhan YS, Anghel C, Krummenacher F, Ionescu AM, Declercq M, Gillon R, et al. A highly scalable high voltage MOSFET model. In: IEEE European solid-state device research conference (ESSDERC), September 2006. p. 270-3; Chauhan YS, Anghel C, Krummenacher F, Maier C, Gillon R, Bakeroot B, et al. Scalable general high voltage MOSFET model including quasi-saturation and self-heating effect. Solid State Electron 2006;50(11-12):1801-13] is used for the modeling of the drift region, which gives smoother transition on output characteristics and also models well the quasi-saturation region of high voltage MOSFETs. First, the model is validated on the numerical device simulation of the VDMOS transistor and then, on the measured characteristics of the SOI-LDMOS transistor. The accuracy of the model is better than our previous model [Chauhan YS, Anghel C, Krummenacher F, Maier C, Gillon R, Bakeroot B, et al. Scalable general high voltage MOSFET model including quasi-saturation and self-heating effect. Solid State Electron 2006;50(11-12):1801-13] especially in the quasi-saturation region of output characteristics.

On Dual Processing and Heuristic Approaches to Moral Cognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lapsley, Daniel K.; Hill, Patrick L.

2008-01-01

We examine the implications of dual-processing theories of cognition for the moral domain, with particular emphasis upon "System 1" theories: the Social Intuitionist Model (Haidt), moral heuristics (Sunstein), fast-and-frugal moral heuristics (Gigerenzer), schema accessibility (Lapsley & Narvaez) and moral expertise (Narvaez). We argue that these…

Decision heuristic or preference? Attribute non-attendance in discrete choice problems.

PubMed

Heidenreich, Sebastian; Watson, Verity; Ryan, Mandy; Phimister, Euan

2018-01-01

This paper investigates if respondents' choice to not consider all characteristics of a multiattribute health service may represent preferences. Over the last decade, an increasing number of studies account for attribute non-attendance (ANA) when using discrete choice experiments to elicit individuals' preferences. Most studies assume such behaviour is a heuristic and therefore uninformative. This assumption may result in misleading welfare estimates if ANA reflects preferences. This is the first paper to assess if ANA is a heuristic or genuine preference without relying on respondents' self-stated motivation and the first study to explore this question within a health context. Based on findings from cognitive psychology, we expect that familiar respondents are less likely to use a decision heuristic to simplify choices than unfamiliar respondents. We employ a latent class model of discrete choice experiment data concerned with National Health Service managers' preferences for support services that assist with performance concerns. We present quantitative and qualitative evidence that in our study ANA mostly represents preferences. We also show that wrong assumptions about ANA result in inadequate welfare measures that can result in suboptimal policy advice. Future research should proceed with caution when assuming that ANA is a heuristic. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reserve design to maximize species persistence

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight; Laurel E. Travis

2008-01-01

We develop a reserve design strategy to maximize the probability of species persistence predicted by a stochastic, individual-based, metapopulation model. Because the population model does not fit exact optimization procedures, our strategy involves deriving promising solutions from theory, obtaining promising solutions from a simulation optimization heuristic, and...

Rapid temporal accumulation in spider fear: Evidence from hierarchical drift diffusion modelling.

PubMed

Tipples, Jason

2015-12-01

Fear can distort sense of time--making time seem slow or even stand still. Here, I used hierarchical drift diffusion modeling (HDDM; Vandekerckhove, Tuerlinckx, & Lee, 2008, 2011; Wiecki, Sofer, & Frank, 2013) to test the idea that temporal accumulation speeds up during fear. Eighteen high fearful and 23 low fearful participants judged the duration of both feared stimuli (spiders) and nonfeared stimuli (birds) in a temporal bisection task. The drift diffusion modeling results support the main hypothesis. In high but not low fearful individuals, evidence accumulated more rapidly toward a long duration decision-drift rates were higher-for spiders compared with birds. This result and further insights into how fear affects time perception would not have been possible on the basis of analyses of choice proportion data alone. Further results were interpreted in the context of a recent 2-stage model of time perception (Balcı & Simen, 2014). The results highlight the usefulness of diffusion modeling to test process-based explanations of disordered cognition in emotional disorders. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

The priority heuristic: making choices without trade-offs.

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-04-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people's choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: security-potential/aspiration theory, transfer-of-attention-exchange model, and cumulative prospect theory. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

Information Processing and Risk Perception: An Adaptation of the Heuristic-Systematic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trumbo, Craig W.

2002-01-01

Describes heuristic-systematic information-processing model and risk perception--the two major conceptual areas of the analysis. Discusses the proposed model, describing the context of the data collections (public health communication involving cancer epidemiology) and providing the results of a set of three replications using the proposed model.…

Analysis of the type II robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Çil, Zeynel Abidin; Mete, Süleyman; Ağpak, Kürşad

2017-06-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing trend towards using robots in production systems. Robots are used in different areas such as packaging, transportation, loading/unloading and especially assembly lines. One important step in taking advantage of robots on the assembly line is considering them while balancing the line. On the other hand, market conditions have increased the importance of mixed-model assembly lines. Therefore, in this article, the robotic mixed-model assembly line balancing problem is studied. The aim of this study is to develop a new efficient heuristic algorithm based on beam search in order to minimize the sum of cycle times over all models. In addition, mathematical models of the problem are presented for comparison. The proposed heuristic is tested on benchmark problems and compared with the optimal solutions. The results show that the algorithm is very competitive and is a promising tool for further research.

More than one way to see it: Individual heuristics in avian visual computation

PubMed Central

Ravignani, Andrea; Westphal-Fitch, Gesche; Aust, Ulrike; Schlumpp, Martin M.; Fitch, W. Tecumseh

2015-01-01

Comparative pattern learning experiments investigate how different species find regularities in sensory input, providing insights into cognitive processing in humans and other animals. Past research has focused either on one species’ ability to process pattern classes or different species’ performance in recognizing the same pattern, with little attention to individual and species-specific heuristics and decision strategies. We trained and tested two bird species, pigeons (Columba livia) and kea (Nestor notabilis, a parrot species), on visual patterns using touch-screen technology. Patterns were composed of several abstract elements and had varying degrees of structural complexity. We developed a model selection paradigm, based on regular expressions, that allowed us to reconstruct the specific decision strategies and cognitive heuristics adopted by a given individual in our task. Individual birds showed considerable differences in the number, type and heterogeneity of heuristic strategies adopted. Birds’ choices also exhibited consistent species-level differences. Kea adopted effective heuristic strategies, based on matching learned bigrams to stimulus edges. Individual pigeons, in contrast, adopted an idiosyncratic mix of strategies that included local transition probabilities and global string similarity. Although performance was above chance and quite high for kea, no individual of either species provided clear evidence of learning exactly the rule used to generate the training stimuli. Our results show that similar behavioral outcomes can be achieved using dramatically different strategies and highlight the dangers of combining multiple individuals in a group analysis. These findings, and our general approach, have implications for the design of future pattern learning experiments, and the interpretation of comparative cognition research more generally. PMID:26113444

Heuristic decision making in medicine

PubMed Central

Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

Automatic Generation of Heuristics for Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, Robert A.; Bresina, John L.; Rodgers, Stuart M.

1997-01-01

This paper presents a technique, called GenH, that automatically generates search heuristics for scheduling problems. The impetus for developing this technique is the growing consensus that heuristics encode advice that is, at best, useful in solving most, or typical, problem instances, and, at worst, useful in solving only a narrowly defined set of instances. In either case, heuristic problem solvers, to be broadly applicable, should have a means of automatically adjusting to the idiosyncrasies of each problem instance. GenH generates a search heuristic for a given problem instance by hill-climbing in the space of possible multi-attribute heuristics, where the evaluation of a candidate heuristic is based on the quality of the solution found under its guidance. We present empirical results obtained by applying GenH to the real world problem of telescope observation scheduling. These results demonstrate that GenH is a simple and effective way of improving the performance of an heuristic scheduler.

Heuristic decision making in medicine.

PubMed

Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-03-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

Arguments, Contradictions, Resistances, and Conceptual Change in Students' Understanding of Atomic Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor; Aguilera, Damarys; Maza, Arelys; Liendo, Gustavo

2002-01-01

Reports on a study aimed at facilitating freshman general chemistry students' understanding of atomic structure based on the work of Thomson, Rutherford, and Bohr. Hypothesizes that classroom discussions based on arguments/counterarguments of the heuristic principles on which these scientists based their atomic models can facilitate students'…

Reconciling intuitive physics and Newtonian mechanics for colliding objects.

PubMed

Sanborn, Adam N; Mansinghka, Vikash K; Griffiths, Thomas L

2013-04-01

People have strong intuitions about the influence objects exert upon one another when they collide. Because people's judgments appear to deviate from Newtonian mechanics, psychologists have suggested that people depend on a variety of task-specific heuristics. This leaves open the question of how these heuristics could be chosen, and how to integrate them into a unified model that can explain human judgments across a wide range of physical reasoning tasks. We propose an alternative framework, in which people's judgments are based on optimal statistical inference over a Newtonian physical model that incorporates sensory noise and intrinsic uncertainty about the physical properties of the objects being viewed. This noisy Newton framework can be applied to a multitude of judgments, with people's answers determined by the uncertainty they have for physical variables and the constraints of Newtonian mechanics. We investigate a range of effects in mass judgments that have been taken as strong evidence for heuristic use and show that they are well explained by the interplay between Newtonian constraints and sensory uncertainty. We also consider an extended model that handles causality judgments, and obtain good quantitative agreement with human judgments across tasks that involve different judgment types with a single consistent set of parameters.

Towards an Understanding of Instructional Design Heuristics: An Exploratory Delphi Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

York, Cindy S.; Ertmer, Peggy A.

2011-01-01

Evidence suggests that experienced instructional designers often use heuristics and adapted models when engaged in the instructional design problem-solving process. This study used the Delphi technique to identify a core set of heuristics designers reported as being important to the success of the design process. The overarching purpose of the…

Proportional reasoning as a heuristic-based process: time constraint and dual task considerations.

PubMed

Gillard, Ellen; Van Dooren, Wim; Schaeken, Walter; Verschaffel, Lieven

2009-01-01

The present study interprets the overuse of proportional solution methods from a dual process framework. Dual process theories claim that analytic operations involve time-consuming executive processing, whereas heuristic operations are fast and automatic. In two experiments to test whether proportional reasoning is heuristic-based, the participants solved "proportional" problems, for which proportional solution methods provide correct answers, and "nonproportional" problems known to elicit incorrect answers based on the assumption of proportionality. In Experiment 1, the available solution time was restricted. In Experiment 2, the executive resources were burdened with a secondary task. Both manipulations induced an increase in proportional answers and a decrease in correct answers to nonproportional problems. These results support the hypothesis that the choice for proportional methods is heuristic-based.

Sophisticated approval voting, ignorance priors, and plurality heuristics: a behavioral social choice analysis in a Thurstonian framework.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-10-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two types of plurality heuristics to model approval voting behavior. When using a sincere plurality heuristic, voters simplify their decision process by voting for their single favorite candidate. When using a strategic plurality heuristic, voters strategically focus their attention on the 2 front-runners and vote for their preferred candidate among these 2. Using a hierarchy of Thurstonian random utility models, the authors implemented these different decision rules and tested them statistically on 7 real world approval voting elections. They cross-validated their key findings via a psychological Internet experiment. Although a substantial number of voters used the plurality heuristic in the real elections, they did so sincerely, not strategically. Moreover, even though Thurstonian models do not force such agreement, the results show, in contrast to common wisdom about social choice rules, that the sincere social orders by Condorcet, Borda, plurality, and approval voting are identical in all 7 elections and in the Internet experiment. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

Mathematical programming formulations for satellite synthesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhasin, Puneet; Reilly, Charles H.

1987-01-01

The problem of satellite synthesis can be described as optimally allotting locations and sometimes frequencies and polarizations, to communication satellites so that interference from unwanted satellite signals does not exceed a specified threshold. In this report, mathematical programming models and optimization methods are used to solve satellite synthesis problems. A nonlinear programming formulation which is solved using Zoutendijk's method and a gradient search method is described. Nine mixed integer programming models are considered. Results of computer runs with these nine models and five geographically compatible scenarios are presented and evaluated. A heuristic solution procedure is also used to solve two of the models studied. Heuristic solutions to three large synthesis problems are presented. The results of our analysis show that the heuristic performs very well, both in terms of solution quality and solution time, on the two models to which it was applied. It is concluded that the heuristic procedure is the best of the methods considered for solving satellite synthesis problems.

Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2018-01-23

Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

Hidden long evolutionary memory in a model biochemical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Md. Zulfikar; Wingreen, Ned S.; Mukhopadhyay, Ranjan

2018-04-01

We introduce a minimal model for the evolution of functional protein-interaction networks using a sequence-based mutational algorithm, and apply the model to study neutral drift in networks that yield oscillatory dynamics. Starting with a functional core module, random evolutionary drift increases network complexity even in the absence of specific selective pressures. Surprisingly, we uncover a hidden order in sequence space that gives rise to long-term evolutionary memory, implying strong constraints on network evolution due to the topology of accessible sequence space.

An Enhanced MEMS Error Modeling Approach Based on Nu-Support Vector Regression

PubMed Central

Bhatt, Deepak; Aggarwal, Priyanka; Bhattacharya, Prabir; Devabhaktuni, Vijay

2012-01-01

Micro Electro Mechanical System (MEMS)-based inertial sensors have made possible the development of a civilian land vehicle navigation system by offering a low-cost solution. However, the accurate modeling of the MEMS sensor errors is one of the most challenging tasks in the design of low-cost navigation systems. These sensors exhibit significant errors like biases, drift, noises; which are negligible for higher grade units. Different conventional techniques utilizing the Gauss Markov model and neural network method have been previously utilized to model the errors. However, Gauss Markov model works unsatisfactorily in the case of MEMS units due to the presence of high inherent sensor errors. On the other hand, modeling the random drift utilizing Neural Network (NN) is time consuming, thereby affecting its real-time implementation. We overcome these existing drawbacks by developing an enhanced Support Vector Machine (SVM) based error model. Unlike NN, SVMs do not suffer from local minimisation or over-fitting problems and delivers a reliable global solution. Experimental results proved that the proposed SVM approach reduced the noise standard deviation by 10–35% for gyroscopes and 61–76% for accelerometers. Further, positional error drifts under static conditions improved by 41% and 80% in comparison to NN and GM approaches. PMID:23012552

Towards a Relation Extraction Framework for Cyber-Security Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Corinne L; Bridges, Robert A; Huffer, Kelly M

In order to assist security analysts in obtaining information pertaining to their network, such as novel vulnerabilities, exploits, or patches, information retrieval methods tailored to the security domain are needed. As labeled text data is scarce and expensive, we follow developments in semi-supervised NLP and implement a bootstrapping algorithm for extracting security entities and their relationships from text. The algorithm requires little input data, specifically, a few relations or patterns (heuristics for identifying relations), and incorporates an active learning component which queries the user on the most important decisions to prevent drifting the desired relations. Preliminary testing on a smallmore » corpus shows promising results, obtaining precision of .82.« less

A Design Support Framework through Dynamic Deployment of Hypothesis and Verification in the Design Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nomaguch, Yutaka; Fujita, Kikuo

This paper proposes a design support framework, named DRIFT (Design Rationale Integration Framework of Three layers), which dynamically captures and manages hypothesis and verification in the design process. A core of DRIFT is a three-layered design process model of action, model operation and argumentation. This model integrates various design support tools and captures design operations performed on them. Action level captures the sequence of design operations. Model operation level captures the transition of design states, which records a design snapshot over design tools. Argumentation level captures the process of setting problems and alternatives. The linkage of three levels enables to automatically and efficiently capture and manage iterative hypothesis and verification processes through design operations over design tools. In DRIFT, such a linkage is extracted through the templates of design operations, which are extracted from the patterns embeded in design tools such as Design-For-X (DFX) approaches, and design tools are integrated through ontology-based representation of design concepts. An argumentation model, gIBIS (graphical Issue-Based Information System), is used for representing dependencies among problems and alternatives. A mechanism of TMS (Truth Maintenance System) is used for managing multiple hypothetical design stages. This paper also demonstrates a prototype implementation of DRIFT and its application to a simple design problem. Further, it is concluded with discussion of some future issues.

Inhibition of Zero Drift in Perovskite-Based Photodetector Devices via [6,6]-Phenyl-C61-butyric Acid Methyl Ester Doping.

PubMed

Liu, Yintao; Jia, Renxu; Wang, Yucheng; Hu, Ziyang; Zhang, Yuming; Pang, Tiqiang; Zhu, Yuejin; Luan, Suzhen

2017-05-10

Zero drift can severely deteriorate the stability of the light-dark current ratio, detectivity, and responsivity of photodetectors. In this paper, the effects of a [6,6]-phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM)-doped perovskite-based photodetector device on the inhibition of zero drift under dark state are discussed. Two kinds of photodetectors (Au/CH 3 NH 3 PbI x Cl 3-x /Au and Au/CH 3 NH 3 PbI x Cl 3-x :PCBM/Au) were prepared, and the materials and photodetector devices were measured by scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, photoluminescence, ultraviolet absorption spectra, and current-voltage and current-time measurements. It was found that similar merit parameters, including light-dark current ratio (∼10 2 ), detectivity (∼10 11 Jones), and responsivity were obtained for these two kinds of photodetectors. However, the drift of Au/CH 3 NH 3 PbI x Cl 3-x :PCBM/Au devices is negligible, while a drift of ∼0.2 V exists in Au/CH 3 NH 3 PbI x Cl 3-x /Au devices. A new model is proposed based on the hindering theory of ion (vacancy) migration, and it is believed that the dopant PCBM can hinder the ion (vacancy) migration of perovskite materials to suppress the phenomenon of zero drift in perovskite-based photodetectors.

Betterment, undermining, support and distortion: A heuristic model for the analysis of pressure on evaluators.

PubMed

Pleger, Lyn; Sager, Fritz

2016-09-18

Evaluations can only serve as a neutral evidence base for policy decision-making as long as they have not been altered along non-scientific criteria. Studies show that evaluators are repeatedly put under pressure to deliver results in line with given expectations. The study of pressure and influence to misrepresent findings is hence an important research strand for the development of evaluation praxis. A conceptual challenge in the area of evaluation ethics research is the fact that pressure can be not only negative, but also positive. We develop a heuristic model of influence on evaluations that does justice to this ambivalence of influence: the BUSD-model (betterment, undermining, support, distortion). The model is based on the distinction of two dimensions, namely 'explicitness of pressure' and 'direction of influence'. We demonstrate how the model can be applied to understand pressure and offer a practical tool to distinguish positive from negative influence in the form of three so-called differentiators (awareness, accordance, intention). The differentiators comprise a practical component by assisting evaluators who are confronted with influence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Learning Negotiation Policies Using IB3 and Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nalepa, Gislaine M.; Ávila, Bráulio C.; Enembreck, Fabrício; Scalabrin, Edson E.

This paper presents an intelligent offer policy in a negotiation environment, in which each agent involved learns the preferences of its opponent in order to improve its own performance. Each agent must also be able to detect drifts in the opponent's preferences so as to quickly adjust itself to their new offer policy. For this purpose, two simple learning techniques were first evaluated: (i) based on instances (IB3) and (ii) based on Bayesian Networks. Additionally, as its known that in theory group learning produces better results than individual/single learning, the efficiency of IB3 and Bayesian classifier groups were also analyzed. Finally, each decision model was evaluated in moments of concept drift, being the drift gradual, moderate or abrupt. Results showed that both groups of classifiers were able to effectively detect drifts in the opponent's preferences.

Enriching mission planning approach with state transition graph heuristics for deep space exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Hao; Xu, Rui; Xu, Wenming; Cui, Pingyuan; Zhu, Shengying

2017-10-01

As to support the mission of Mars exploration in China, automated mission planning is required to enhance security and robustness of deep space probe. Deep space mission planning requires modeling of complex operations constraints and focus on the temporal state transitions of involved subsystems. Also, state transitions are ubiquitous in physical systems, but have been elusive for knowledge description. We introduce a modeling approach to cope with these difficulties that takes state transitions into consideration. The key technique we build on is the notion of extended states and state transition graphs. Furthermore, a heuristics that based on state transition graphs is proposed to avoid redundant work. Finally, we run comprehensive experiments on selected domains and our techniques present an excellent performance.

Design of motion adjusting system for space camera based on ultrasonic motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kai; Jin, Guang; Gu, Song; Yan, Yong; Sun, Zhiyuan

2011-08-01

Drift angle is a transverse intersection angle of vector of image motion of the space camera. Adjusting the angle could reduce the influence on image quality. Ultrasonic motor (USM) is a new type of actuator using ultrasonic wave stimulated by piezoelectric ceramics. They have many advantages in comparison with conventional electromagnetic motors. In this paper, some improvement was designed for control system of drift adjusting mechanism. Based on ultrasonic motor T-60 was designed the drift adjusting system, which is composed of the drift adjusting mechanical frame, the ultrasonic motor, the driver of Ultrasonic Motor, the photoelectric encoder and the drift adjusting controller. The TMS320F28335 DSP was adopted as the calculation and control processor, photoelectric encoder was used as sensor of position closed loop system and the voltage driving circuit designed as generator of ultrasonic wave. It was built the mathematic model of drive circuit of the ultrasonic motor T-60 using matlab modules. In order to verify the validity of the drift adjusting system, was introduced the source of the disturbance, and made simulation analysis. It designed the control systems of motor drive for drift adjusting system with the improved PID control. The drift angle adjusting system has such advantages as the small space, simple configuration, high position control precision, fine repeatability, self locking property and low powers. It showed that the system could accomplish the mission of drift angle adjusting excellent.

Heuristics can produce surprisingly rational probability estimates: Comment on Costello and Watts (2014).

PubMed

Nilsson, Håkan; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2016-01-01

Costello and Watts (2014) present a model assuming that people's knowledge of probabilities adheres to probability theory, but that their probability judgments are perturbed by a random noise in the retrieval from memory. Predictions for the relationships between probability judgments for constituent events and their disjunctions and conjunctions, as well as for sums of such judgments were derived from probability theory. Costello and Watts (2014) report behavioral data showing that subjective probability judgments accord with these predictions. Based on the finding that subjective probability judgments follow probability theory, Costello and Watts (2014) conclude that the results imply that people's probability judgments embody the rules of probability theory and thereby refute theories of heuristic processing. Here, we demonstrate the invalidity of this conclusion by showing that all of the tested predictions follow straightforwardly from an account assuming heuristic probability integration (Nilsson, Winman, Juslin, & Hansson, 2009). We end with a discussion of a number of previous findings that harmonize very poorly with the predictions by the model suggested by Costello and Watts (2014). (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Discovery and problem solving: Triangulation as a weak heuristic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rochowiak, Daniel

1987-01-01

Recently the artificial intelligence community has turned its attention to the process of discovery and found that the history of science is a fertile source for what Darden has called compiled hindsight. Such hindsight generates weak heuristics for discovery that do not guarantee that discoveries will be made but do have proven worth in leading to discoveries. Triangulation is one such heuristic that is grounded in historical hindsight. This heuristic is explored within the general framework of the BACON, GLAUBER, STAHL, DALTON, and SUTTON programs. In triangulation different bases of information are compared in an effort to identify gaps between the bases. Thus, assuming that the bases of information are relevantly related, the gaps that are identified should be good locations for discovery and robust analysis.

Analysis of the Contribution of Wind Drift Factor to Oil Slick Movement under Strong Tidal Condition: Hebei Spirit Oil Spill Case

PubMed Central

Kim, Tae-Ho; Yang, Chan-Su; Oh, Jeong-Hwan; Ouchi, Kazuo

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the wind drift factor under strong tidal conditions in the western coastal area of Korea on the movement of oil slicks caused by the Hebei Spirit oil spill accident in 2007. The movement of oil slicks was computed using a simple simulation model based on the empirical formula as a function of surface current, wind speed, and the wind drift factor. For the simulation, the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model and Automatic Weather System (AWS) were used to generate tidal and wind fields respectively. Simulation results were then compared with 5 sets of spaceborne optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. From the present study, it was found that highest matching rate between the simulation results and satellite imagery was obtained with different values of the wind drift factor, and to first order, this factor was linearly proportional to the wind speed. Based on the results, a new modified empirical formula was proposed for forecasting the movement of oil slicks on the coastal area. PMID:24498094

An exploration of group-based HIV/AIDS treatment and care models in Sub-Saharan Africa using a realist evaluation (Intervention-Context-Actor-Mechanism-Outcome) heuristic tool: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mukumbang, Ferdinand C; Van Belle, Sara; Marchal, Bruno; van Wyk, Brian

2017-08-25

It is increasingly acknowledged that differentiated care models hold potential to manage large volumes of patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). Various group-based models of ART service delivery aimed at decongesting local health facilities, encouraging patient retention in care, and enhancing adherence to medication have been implemented across sub-Saharan Africa. Evidence from the literature suggests that these models of ART service delivery are more effective than corresponding facility-based care and superior to individual-based models. Nevertheless, there is little understanding of how these care models work to achieve their intended outcomes. The aim of this study was to review the theories explicating how and why group-based ART models work using a realist evaluation framework. A systematic review of the literature on group-based ART support models in sub-Saharan Africa was conducted. We searched the Google Scholar and PubMed databases and supplemented these with a reference chase of the identified articles. We applied a theory-driven approach-narrative synthesis-to synthesise the data. Data were analysed using the thematic content analysis method and synthesised according to aspects of the Intervention-Context-Actor-Mechanism-Outcome heuristic-analytic tool-a realist evaluation theory building tool. Twelve articles reporting primary studies on group-based models of ART service delivery were included in the review. The six studies that employed a quantitative study design failed to identify aspects of the context and mechanisms that work to trigger the outcomes of group-based models. While the other four studies that applied a qualitative and the two using a mixed methods design identified some of the aspects of the context and mechanisms that could trigger the outcomes of group-based ART models, these studies did not explain the relationship(s) between the theory elements and how they interact to produce the outcome(s). Although we could distill various components of the Intervention-Context-Actor-Mechanism-Outcome analytic tool from different studies exploring group-based programmes, we could not, however, identify a salient programme theory based on the Intervention-Context-Actor-Mechanism-Outcome heuristic analysis. The scientific community, policy makers and programme implementers would benefit more if explanatory findings of how, why, for whom and in what circumstances programmes work are presented rather than just reporting on the outcomes of the interventions.

Minimizing makespan in a two-stage flow shop with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. D.; Liu, J. J.; Chen, Q. X.; Mao, N.

2017-06-01

Against a background of heat-treatment operations in mould manufacturing, a two-stage flow-shop scheduling problem is described for minimizing makespan with parallel batch-processing machines and re-entrant jobs. The weights and release dates of jobs are non-identical, but job processing times are equal. A mixed-integer linear programming model is developed and tested with small-scale scenarios. Given that the problem is NP hard, three heuristic construction methods with polynomial complexity are proposed. The worst case of the new constructive heuristic is analysed in detail. A method for computing lower bounds is proposed to test heuristic performance. Heuristic efficiency is tested with sets of scenarios. Compared with the two improved heuristics, the performance of the new constructive heuristic is superior.

Autoregressive Modeling of Drift and Random Error to Characterize a Continuous Intravascular Glucose Monitoring Sensor.

PubMed

Zhou, Tony; Dickson, Jennifer L; Geoffrey Chase, J

2018-01-01

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices have been effective in managing diabetes and offer potential benefits for use in the intensive care unit (ICU). Use of CGM devices in the ICU has been limited, primarily due to the higher point accuracy errors over currently used traditional intermittent blood glucose (BG) measures. General models of CGM errors, including drift and random errors, are lacking, but would enable better design of protocols to utilize these devices. This article presents an autoregressive (AR) based modeling method that separately characterizes the drift and random noise of the GlySure CGM sensor (GlySure Limited, Oxfordshire, UK). Clinical sensor data (n = 33) and reference measurements were used to generate 2 AR models to describe sensor drift and noise. These models were used to generate 100 Monte Carlo simulations based on reference blood glucose measurements. These were then compared to the original CGM clinical data using mean absolute relative difference (MARD) and a Trend Compass. The point accuracy MARD was very similar between simulated and clinical data (9.6% vs 9.9%). A Trend Compass was used to assess trend accuracy, and found simulated and clinical sensor profiles were similar (simulated trend index 11.4° vs clinical trend index 10.9°). The model and method accurately represents cohort sensor behavior over patients, providing a general modeling approach to any such sensor by separately characterizing each type of error that can arise in the data. Overall, it enables better protocol design based on accurate expected CGM sensor behavior, as well as enabling the analysis of what level of each type of sensor error would be necessary to obtain desired glycemic control safety and performance with a given protocol.

A Generalized Framework for Modeling Next Generation 911 Implementations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kelic, Andjelka; Aamir, Munaf Syed; Kelic, Andjelka

This document summarizes the current state of Sandia 911 modeling capabilities and then addresses key aspects of Next Generation 911 (NG911) architectures for expansion of existing models. Analysis of three NG911 implementations was used to inform heuristics , associated key data requirements , and assumptions needed to capture NG911 architectures in the existing models . Modeling of NG911 necessitates careful consideration of its complexity and the diversity of implementations. Draft heuristics for constructing NG911 models are pres ented based on the analysis along with a summary of current challenges and ways to improve future NG911 modeling efforts . We foundmore » that NG911 relies on E nhanced 911 (E911) assets such as 911 selective routers to route calls originating from traditional tel ephony service which are a majority of 911 calls . We also found that the diversity and transitional nature of NG911 implementations necessitates significant and frequent data collection to ensure that adequate model s are available for crisis action support .« less

Gaussian process based modeling and experimental design for sensor calibration in drifting environments

PubMed Central

Geng, Zongyu; Yang, Feng; Chen, Xi; Wu, Nianqiang

2016-01-01

It remains a challenge to accurately calibrate a sensor subject to environmental drift. The calibration task for such a sensor is to quantify the relationship between the sensor’s response and its exposure condition, which is specified by not only the analyte concentration but also the environmental factors such as temperature and humidity. This work developed a Gaussian Process (GP)-based procedure for the efficient calibration of sensors in drifting environments. Adopted as the calibration model, GP is not only able to capture the possibly nonlinear relationship between the sensor responses and the various exposure-condition factors, but also able to provide valid statistical inference for uncertainty quantification of the target estimates (e.g., the estimated analyte concentration of an unknown environment). Built on GP’s inference ability, an experimental design method was developed to achieve efficient sampling of calibration data in a batch sequential manner. The resulting calibration procedure, which integrates the GP-based modeling and experimental design, was applied on a simulated chemiresistor sensor to demonstrate its effectiveness and its efficiency over the traditional method. PMID:26924894

Nonparametric estimates of drift and diffusion profiles via Fokker-Planck algebra.

PubMed

Lund, Steven P; Hubbard, Joseph B; Halter, Michael

2014-11-06

Diffusion processes superimposed upon deterministic motion play a key role in understanding and controlling the transport of matter, energy, momentum, and even information in physics, chemistry, material science, biology, and communications technology. Given functions defining these random and deterministic components, the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is often used to model these diffusive systems. Many methods exist for estimating the drift and diffusion profiles from one or more identifiable diffusive trajectories; however, when many identical entities diffuse simultaneously, it may not be possible to identify individual trajectories. Here we present a method capable of simultaneously providing nonparametric estimates for both drift and diffusion profiles from evolving density profiles, requiring only the validity of Langevin/FP dynamics. This algebraic FP manipulation provides a flexible and robust framework for estimating stationary drift and diffusion coefficient profiles, is not based on fluctuation theory or solved diffusion equations, and may facilitate predictions for many experimental systems. We illustrate this approach on experimental data obtained from a model lipid bilayer system exhibiting free diffusion and electric field induced drift. The wide range over which this approach provides accurate estimates for drift and diffusion profiles is demonstrated through simulation.

Parallel constraint satisfaction in memory-based decisions.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Hodges, Sara D

2011-01-01

Three studies sought to investigate decision strategies in memory-based decisions and to test the predictions of the parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) model for decision making (Glöckner & Betsch, 2008). Time pressure was manipulated and the model was compared against simple heuristics (take the best and equal weight) and a weighted additive strategy. From PCS we predicted that fast intuitive decision making is based on compensatory information integration and that decision time increases and confidence decreases with increasing inconsistency in the decision task. In line with these predictions we observed a predominant usage of compensatory strategies under all time-pressure conditions and even with decision times as short as 1.7 s. For a substantial number of participants, choices and decision times were best explained by PCS, but there was also evidence for use of simple heuristics. The time-pressure manipulation did not significantly affect decision strategies. Overall, the results highlight intuitive, automatic processes in decision making and support the idea that human information-processing capabilities are less severely bounded than often assumed.

Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Roth, Dan; Wilkins, David C.

2001-01-01

Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.

Simple Heuristic Approach to Introduction of the Black-Scholes Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yalamova, Rossitsa

2010-01-01

A heuristic approach to explaining of the Black-Scholes option pricing model in undergraduate classes is described. The approach draws upon the method of protocol analysis to encourage students to "think aloud" so that their mental models can be surfaced. It also relies upon extensive visualizations to communicate relationships that are…

QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic algorithm.

PubMed

Bao, Ying; Lei, Weimin; Zhang, Wei; Zhan, Yuzhuo

2016-01-01

At present, to realize or improve the quality of experience (QoE) is a major goal for network media transmission service, and QoE evaluation is the basis for adjusting the transmission control mechanism. Therefore, a kind of QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic algorithm is proposed in this paper, which is concentrated on service score calculation at the server side. The server side collects network transmission quality of service (QoS) parameter, node location data, and user expectation value from client feedback information. Then it manages the historical data in database through the "big data" process mode, and predicts user score according to heuristic rules. On this basis, it completes fuzzy clustering analysis, and generates service QoE score and management message, which will be finally fed back to clients. Besides, this paper mainly discussed service evaluation generative rules, heuristic evaluation rules and fuzzy clustering analysis methods, and presents service-based QoE evaluation processes. The simulation experiments have verified the effectiveness of QoE collaborative evaluation method based on fuzzy clustering heuristic rules.

Derived heuristics-based consistent optimization of material flow in a gold processing plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myburgh, Christie; Deb, Kalyanmoy

2018-01-01

Material flow in a chemical processing plant often follows complicated control laws and involves plant capacity constraints. Importantly, the process involves discrete scenarios which when modelled in a programming format involves if-then-else statements. Therefore, a formulation of an optimization problem of such processes becomes complicated with nonlinear and non-differentiable objective and constraint functions. In handling such problems using classical point-based approaches, users often have to resort to modifications and indirect ways of representing the problem to suit the restrictions associated with classical methods. In a particular gold processing plant optimization problem, these facts are demonstrated by showing results from MATLAB®'s well-known fmincon routine. Thereafter, a customized evolutionary optimization procedure which is capable of handling all complexities offered by the problem is developed. Although the evolutionary approach produced results with comparatively less variance over multiple runs, the performance has been enhanced by introducing derived heuristics associated with the problem. In this article, the development and usage of derived heuristics in a practical problem are presented and their importance in a quick convergence of the overall algorithm is demonstrated.

OpenDrift - an open source framework for ocean trajectory modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Breivik, Øyvind; Ådlandsvik, Bjørn

2016-04-01

We will present a new, open source tool for modeling the trajectories and fate of particles or substances (Lagrangian Elements) drifting in the ocean, or even in the atmosphere. The software is named OpenDrift, and has been developed at Norwegian Meteorological Institute in cooperation with Institute of Marine Research. OpenDrift is a generic framework written in Python, and is openly available at https://github.com/knutfrode/opendrift/. The framework is modular with respect to three aspects: (1) obtaining input data, (2) the transport/morphological processes, and (3) exporting of results to file. Modularity is achieved through well defined interfaces between components, and use of a consistent vocabulary (CF conventions) for naming of variables. Modular input implies that it is not necessary to preprocess input data (e.g. currents, wind and waves from Eulerian models) to a particular file format. Instead "reader modules" can be written/used to obtain data directly from any original source, including files or through web based protocols (e.g. OPeNDAP/Thredds). Modularity of processes implies that a model developer may focus on the geophysical processes relevant for the application of interest, without needing to consider technical tasks such as reading, reprojecting, and colocating input data, rotation and scaling of vectors and model output. We will show a few example applications of using OpenDrift for predicting drifters, oil spills, and search and rescue objects.

Hyper-heuristics with low level parameter adaptation.

PubMed

Ren, Zhilei; Jiang, He; Xuan, Jifeng; Luo, Zhongxuan

2012-01-01

Recent years have witnessed the great success of hyper-heuristics applying to numerous real-world applications. Hyper-heuristics raise the generality of search methodologies by manipulating a set of low level heuristics (LLHs) to solve problems, and aim to automate the algorithm design process. However, those LLHs are usually parameterized, which may contradict the domain independent motivation of hyper-heuristics. In this paper, we show how to automatically maintain low level parameters (LLPs) using a hyper-heuristic with LLP adaptation (AD-HH), and exemplify the feasibility of AD-HH by adaptively maintaining the LLPs for two hyper-heuristic models. Furthermore, aiming at tackling the search space expansion due to the LLP adaptation, we apply a heuristic space reduction (SAR) mechanism to improve the AD-HH framework. The integration of the LLP adaptation and the SAR mechanism is able to explore the heuristic space more effectively and efficiently. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms, we choose the p-median problem as a case study. The empirical results show that with the adaptation of the LLPs and the SAR mechanism, the proposed algorithms are able to achieve competitive results over the three heterogeneous classes of benchmark instances.

Heuristics for Relevancy Ranking of Earth Dataset Search Results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynnes, C.; Quinn, P.; Norton, J.

2016-12-01

As the Variety of Earth science datasets increases, science researchers find it more challenging to discover and select the datasets that best fit their needs. The most common way of search providers to address this problem is to rank the datasets returned for a query by their likely relevance to the user. Large web page search engines typically use text matching supplemented with reverse link counts, semantic annotations and user intent modeling. However, this produces uneven results when applied to dataset metadata records simply externalized as a web page. Fortunately, data and search provides have decades of experience in serving data user communities, allowing them to form heuristics that leverage the structure in the metadata together with knowledge about the user community. Some of these heuristics include specific ways of matching the user input to the essential measurements in the dataset and determining overlaps of time range and spatial areas. Heuristics based on the novelty of the datasets can prioritize later, better versions of data over similar predecessors. And knowledge of how different user types and communities use data can be brought to bear in cases where characteristics of the user (discipline, expertise) or their intent (applications, research) can be divined. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System has begun implementing some of these heuristics in the relevancy algorithm of its Common Metadata Repository search engine.

Heuristics for Relevancy Ranking of Earth Dataset Search Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynnes, Christopher; Quinn, Patrick; Norton, James

2016-01-01

As the Variety of Earth science datasets increases, science researchers find it more challenging to discover and select the datasets that best fit their needs. The most common way of search providers to address this problem is to rank the datasets returned for a query by their likely relevance to the user. Large web page search engines typically use text matching supplemented with reverse link counts, semantic annotations and user intent modeling. However, this produces uneven results when applied to dataset metadata records simply externalized as a web page. Fortunately, data and search provides have decades of experience in serving data user communities, allowing them to form heuristics that leverage the structure in the metadata together with knowledge about the user community. Some of these heuristics include specific ways of matching the user input to the essential measurements in the dataset and determining overlaps of time range and spatial areas. Heuristics based on the novelty of the datasets can prioritize later, better versions of data over similar predecessors. And knowledge of how different user types and communities use data can be brought to bear in cases where characteristics of the user (discipline, expertise) or their intent (applications, research) can be divined. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System has begun implementing some of these heuristics in the relevancy algorithm of its Common Metadata Repository search engine.

The Nonstationary Dynamics of Fitness Distributions: Asexual Model with Epistasis and Standing Variation

PubMed Central

Martin, Guillaume; Roques, Lionel

2016-01-01

Various models describe asexual evolution by mutation, selection, and drift. Some focus directly on fitness, typically modeling drift but ignoring or simplifying both epistasis and the distribution of mutation effects (traveling wave models). Others follow the dynamics of quantitative traits determining fitness (Fisher’s geometric model), imposing a complex but fixed form of mutation effects and epistasis, and often ignoring drift. In all cases, predictions are typically obtained in high or low mutation rate limits and for long-term stationary regimes, thus losing information on transient behaviors and the effect of initial conditions. Here, we connect fitness-based and trait-based models into a single framework, and seek explicit solutions even away from stationarity. The expected fitness distribution is followed over time via its cumulant generating function, using a deterministic approximation that neglects drift. In several cases, explicit trajectories for the full fitness distribution are obtained for arbitrary mutation rates and standing variance. For nonepistatic mutations, especially with beneficial mutations, this approximation fails over the long term but captures the early dynamics, thus complementing stationary stochastic predictions. The approximation also handles several diminishing returns epistasis models (e.g., with an optimal genotype); it can be applied at and away from equilibrium. General results arise at equilibrium, where fitness distributions display a “phase transition” with mutation rate. Beyond this phase transition, in Fisher’s geometric model, the full trajectory of fitness and trait distributions takes a simple form; robust to the details of the mutant phenotype distribution. Analytical arguments are explored regarding why and when the deterministic approximation applies. PMID:27770037

Complex Chemical Reaction Networks from Heuristics-Aided Quantum Chemistry.

PubMed

Rappoport, Dmitrij; Galvin, Cooper J; Zubarev, Dmitry Yu; Aspuru-Guzik, Alán

2014-03-11

While structures and reactivities of many small molecules can be computed efficiently and accurately using quantum chemical methods, heuristic approaches remain essential for modeling complex structures and large-scale chemical systems. Here, we present a heuristics-aided quantum chemical methodology applicable to complex chemical reaction networks such as those arising in cell metabolism and prebiotic chemistry. Chemical heuristics offer an expedient way of traversing high-dimensional reactive potential energy surfaces and are combined here with quantum chemical structure optimizations, which yield the structures and energies of the reaction intermediates and products. Application of heuristics-aided quantum chemical methodology to the formose reaction reproduces the experimentally observed reaction products, major reaction pathways, and autocatalytic cycles.

Heuristic Identification of Biological Architectures for Simulating Complex Hierarchical Genetic Interactions

PubMed Central

Moore, Jason H; Amos, Ryan; Kiralis, Jeff; Andrews, Peter C

2015-01-01

Simulation plays an essential role in the development of new computational and statistical methods for the genetic analysis of complex traits. Most simulations start with a statistical model using methods such as linear or logistic regression that specify the relationship between genotype and phenotype. This is appealing due to its simplicity and because these statistical methods are commonly used in genetic analysis. It is our working hypothesis that simulations need to move beyond simple statistical models to more realistically represent the biological complexity of genetic architecture. The goal of the present study was to develop a prototype genotype–phenotype simulation method and software that are capable of simulating complex genetic effects within the context of a hierarchical biology-based framework. Specifically, our goal is to simulate multilocus epistasis or gene–gene interaction where the genetic variants are organized within the framework of one or more genes, their regulatory regions and other regulatory loci. We introduce here the Heuristic Identification of Biological Architectures for simulating Complex Hierarchical Interactions (HIBACHI) method and prototype software for simulating data in this manner. This approach combines a biological hierarchy, a flexible mathematical framework, a liability threshold model for defining disease endpoints, and a heuristic search strategy for identifying high-order epistatic models of disease susceptibility. We provide several simulation examples using genetic models exhibiting independent main effects and three-way epistatic effects. PMID:25395175

Fitness landscapes, heuristics and technological paradigms: A critique on random search models in evolutionary economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frenken, Koen

2001-06-01

The biological evolution of complex organisms, in which the functioning of genes is interdependent, has been analyzed as "hill-climbing" on NK fitness landscapes through random mutation and natural selection. In evolutionary economics, NK fitness landscapes have been used to simulate the evolution of complex technological systems containing elements that are interdependent in their functioning. In these models, economic agents randomly search for new technological design by trial-and-error and run the risk of ending up in sub-optimal solutions due to interdependencies between the elements in a complex system. These models of random search are legitimate for reasons of modeling simplicity, but remain limited as these models ignore the fact that agents can apply heuristics. A specific heuristic is one that sequentially optimises functions according to their ranking by users of the system. To model this heuristic, a generalized NK-model is developed. In this model, core elements that influence many functions can be distinguished from peripheral elements that affect few functions. The concept of paradigmatic search can then be analytically defined as search that leaves core elements in tact while concentrating on improving functions by mutation of peripheral elements.

Recursive heuristic classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkins, David C.

1994-01-01

The author will describe a new problem-solving approach called recursive heuristic classification, whereby a subproblem of heuristic classification is itself formulated and solved by heuristic classification. This allows the construction of more knowledge-intensive classification programs in a way that yields a clean organization. Further, standard knowledge acquisition and learning techniques for heuristic classification can be used to create, refine, and maintain the knowledge base associated with the recursively called classification expert system. The method of recursive heuristic classification was used in the Minerva blackboard shell for heuristic classification. Minerva recursively calls itself every problem-solving cycle to solve the important blackboard scheduler task, which involves assigning a desirability rating to alternative problem-solving actions. Knowing these ratings is critical to the use of an expert system as a component of a critiquing or apprenticeship tutoring system. One innovation of this research is a method called dynamic heuristic classification, which allows selection among dynamically generated classification categories instead of requiring them to be prenumerated.

A model for solving the prescribed burn planning problem.

PubMed

Rachmawati, Ramya; Ozlen, Melih; Reinke, Karin J; Hearne, John W

2015-01-01

The increasing frequency of destructive wildfires, with a consequent loss of life and property, has led to fire and land management agencies initiating extensive fuel management programs. This involves long-term planning of fuel reduction activities such as prescribed burning or mechanical clearing. In this paper, we propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) model that determines when and where fuel reduction activities should take place. The model takes into account multiple vegetation types in the landscape, their tolerance to frequency of fire events, and keeps track of the age of each vegetation class in each treatment unit. The objective is to minimise fuel load over the planning horizon. The complexity of scheduling fuel reduction activities has led to the introduction of sophisticated mathematical optimisation methods. While these approaches can provide optimum solutions, they can be computationally expensive, particularly for fuel management planning which extends across the landscape and spans long term planning horizons. This raises the question of how much better do exact modelling approaches compare to simpler heuristic approaches in their solutions. To answer this question, the proposed model is run using an exact MIP (using commercial MIP solver) and two heuristic approaches that decompose the problem into multiple single-period sub problems. The Knapsack Problem (KP), which is the first heuristic approach, solves the single period problems, using an exact MIP approach. The second heuristic approach solves the single period sub problem using a greedy heuristic approach. The three methods are compared in term of model tractability, computational time and the objective values. The model was tested using randomised data from 711 treatment units in the Barwon-Otway district of Victoria, Australia. Solutions for the exact MIP could be obtained for up to a 15-year planning only using a standard implementation of CPLEX. Both heuristic approaches can solve significantly larger problems, involving 100-year or even longer planning horizons. Furthermore there are no substantial differences in the solutions produced by the three approaches. It is concluded that for practical purposes a heuristic method is to be preferred to the exact MIP approach.

Prefiltering Model for Homology Detection Algorithms on GPU.

PubMed

Retamosa, Germán; de Pedro, Luis; González, Ivan; Tamames, Javier

2016-01-01

Homology detection has evolved over the time from heavy algorithms based on dynamic programming approaches to lightweight alternatives based on different heuristic models. However, the main problem with these algorithms is that they use complex statistical models, which makes it difficult to achieve a relevant speedup and find exact matches with the original results. Thus, their acceleration is essential. The aim of this article was to prefilter a sequence database. To make this work, we have implemented a groundbreaking heuristic model based on NVIDIA's graphics processing units (GPUs) and multicore processors. Depending on the sensitivity settings, this makes it possible to quickly reduce the sequence database by factors between 50% and 95%, while rejecting no significant sequences. Furthermore, this prefiltering application can be used together with multiple homology detection algorithms as a part of a next-generation sequencing system. Extensive performance and accuracy tests have been carried out in the Spanish National Centre for Biotechnology (NCB). The results show that GPU hardware can accelerate the execution times of former homology detection applications, such as National Centre for Biotechnology Information (NCBI), Basic Local Alignment Search Tool for Proteins (BLASTP), up to a factor of 4.

Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study.

PubMed

Clay, Summer N; Clithero, John A; Harris, Alison M; Reed, Catherine L

2017-01-01

Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation.

Loss Aversion Reflects Information Accumulation, Not Bias: A Drift-Diffusion Model Study

PubMed Central

Clay, Summer N.; Clithero, John A.; Harris, Alison M.; Reed, Catherine L.

2017-01-01

Defined as increased sensitivity to losses, loss aversion is often conceptualized as a cognitive bias. However, findings that loss aversion has an attentional or emotional regulation component suggest that it may instead reflect differences in information processing. To distinguish these alternatives, we applied the drift-diffusion model (DDM) to choice and response time (RT) data in a card gambling task with unknown risk distributions. Loss aversion was measured separately for each participant. Dividing the participants into terciles based on loss aversion estimates, we found that the most loss-averse group showed a significantly lower drift rate than the other two groups, indicating overall slower uptake of information. In contrast, neither the starting bias nor the threshold separation (barrier) varied by group, suggesting that decision thresholds are not affected by loss aversion. These results shed new light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying loss aversion, consistent with an account based on information accumulation. PMID:29066987

Modeling spray drift and runoff-related inputs of pesticides to receiving water.

PubMed

Zhang, Xuyang; Luo, Yuzhou; Goh, Kean S

2018-03-01

Pesticides move to surface water via various pathways including surface runoff, spray drift and subsurface flow. Little is known about the relative contributions of surface runoff and spray drift in agricultural watersheds. This study develops a modeling framework to address the contribution of spray drift to the total loadings of pesticides in receiving water bodies. The modeling framework consists of a GIS module for identifying drift potential, the AgDRIFT model for simulating spray drift, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating various hydrological and landscape processes including surface runoff and transport of pesticides. The modeling framework was applied on the Orestimba Creek Watershed, California. Monitoring data collected from daily samples were used for model evaluation. Pesticide mass deposition on the Orestimba Creek ranged from 0.08 to 6.09% of applied mass. Monitoring data suggests that surface runoff was the major pathway for pesticide entering water bodies, accounting for 76% of the annual loading; the rest 24% from spray drift. The results from the modeling framework showed 81 and 19%, respectively, for runoff and spray drift. Spray drift contributed over half of the mass loading during summer months. The slightly lower spray drift contribution as predicted by the modeling framework was mainly due to SWAT's under-prediction of pesticide mass loading during summer and over-prediction of the loading during winter. Although model simulations were associated with various sources of uncertainties, the overall performance of the modeling framework was satisfactory as evaluated by multiple statistics: for simulation of daily flow, the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSE) ranged from 0.61 to 0.74 and the percent bias (PBIAS) < 28%; for daily pesticide loading, NSE = 0.18 and PBIAS = -1.6%. This modeling framework will be useful for assessing the relative exposure from pesticides related to spray drift and runoff in receiving waters and the design of management practices for mitigating pesticide exposure within a watershed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Heuristics, Interactions, and Status Hierarchies: An Agent-Based Model of Deference Exchange

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manzo, Gianluca; Baldassarri, Delia

2015-01-01

Since Merton's classical analysis of cumulative advantage in science, it has been observed that status hierarchies display a sizable disconnect between actors' quality and rank and that they become increasingly asymmetric over time, without, however, turning into winner-take-all structures. In recent years, formal models of status hierarchies…

Model Based Usability Heuristics for Constructivist E-Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katre, Dinesh S.

2007-01-01

Many e-learning applications and games have been studied to identify the common interaction models of constructivist learning, namely: 1. Move the object to appropriate location; 2. Place objects in appropriate order and location(s); 3. Click to identify; 4. Change the variable factors to observe the effects; and 5. System personification and…

A proven knowledge-based approach to prioritizing process information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corsberg, Daniel R.

1991-01-01

Many space-related processes are highly complex systems subject to sudden, major transients. In any complex process control system, a critical aspect is rapid analysis of the changing process information. During a disturbance, this task can overwhelm humans as well as computers. Humans deal with this by applying heuristics in determining significant information. A simple, knowledge-based approach to prioritizing information is described. The approach models those heuristics that humans would use in similar circumstances. The approach described has received two patents and was implemented in the Alarm Filtering System (AFS) at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). AFS was first developed for application in a nuclear reactor control room. It has since been used in chemical processing applications, where it has had a significant impact on control room environments. The approach uses knowledge-based heuristics to analyze data from process instrumentation and respond to that data according to knowledge encapsulated in objects and rules. While AFS cannot perform the complete diagnosis and control task, it has proven to be extremely effective at filtering and prioritizing information. AFS was used for over two years as a first level of analysis for human diagnosticians. Given the approach's proven track record in a wide variety of practical applications, it should be useful in both ground- and space-based systems.

Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

PubMed

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

2009-09-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Misconceptions and Conceptual Changes Concerning Continental Drift and Plate Tectonics among Portuguese Students Aged 16-17.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marques, Luis; Thompson, David

1997-01-01

This study investigates student misconceptions in the areas of continent, ocean, permanence of ocean basins, continental drift, Earth's magnetic field, and plates and plate motions. A teaching-learning model was designed based on a constructivist approach. Results show that students held a substantial number of misconceptions. (Author/DKM)

Fast and Frugal Heuristics Are Plausible Models of Cognition: Reply to Dougherty, Franco-Watkins, and Thomas (2008)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich; Goldstein, Daniel G.

2008-01-01

M. R. Dougherty, A. M. Franco-Watkins, and R. Thomas (2008) conjectured that fast and frugal heuristics need an automatic frequency counter for ordering cues. In fact, only a few heuristics order cues, and these orderings can arise from evolutionary, social, or individual learning, none of which requires automatic frequency counting. The idea that…

SPRAYTRAN 1.0 User’s Guide: A GIS-Based Atmospheric Spray Droplet Dispersion Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allwine, K Jerry; Rutz, Frederick C.; Droppo, James G.

SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) is a comprehensive dispersion modeling system that is used to simulate the offsite drift of pesticides from spray applications. SPRAYTRAN functions as a console application within Environmental System Research Institute’s ArcMap Geographic Information System (Version 9.x) and integrates the widely-used, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-approved CALifornia PUFF (CALPUFF) dispersion model and model components to simulate longer-range transport and diffusion in variable terrain and spatially/temporally varying meteorological (e.g., wind) fields. Area sources, which are used to define spray blocks in SPRAYTRAN, are initialized using output files generated from a separate aerial-spray-application model called AGDISP (AGricultural DISPersal). The AGDISPmore » model is used for estimating the amount of pesticide deposited to the spray block based on spraying characteristics (e.g., pesticide type, spray nozzles, and aircraft type) and then simulating the near-field (less than 300-m) drift from a single pesticide application. The fraction of pesticide remaining airborne from the AGDISP near-field simulation is then used by SPRAYTRAN for simulating longer-range (greater than 300 m) drift and deposition of the pesticide.« less

More than one way to see it: Individual heuristics in avian visual computation.

PubMed

Ravignani, Andrea; Westphal-Fitch, Gesche; Aust, Ulrike; Schlumpp, Martin M; Fitch, W Tecumseh

2015-10-01

Comparative pattern learning experiments investigate how different species find regularities in sensory input, providing insights into cognitive processing in humans and other animals. Past research has focused either on one species' ability to process pattern classes or different species' performance in recognizing the same pattern, with little attention to individual and species-specific heuristics and decision strategies. We trained and tested two bird species, pigeons (Columba livia) and kea (Nestor notabilis, a parrot species), on visual patterns using touch-screen technology. Patterns were composed of several abstract elements and had varying degrees of structural complexity. We developed a model selection paradigm, based on regular expressions, that allowed us to reconstruct the specific decision strategies and cognitive heuristics adopted by a given individual in our task. Individual birds showed considerable differences in the number, type and heterogeneity of heuristic strategies adopted. Birds' choices also exhibited consistent species-level differences. Kea adopted effective heuristic strategies, based on matching learned bigrams to stimulus edges. Individual pigeons, in contrast, adopted an idiosyncratic mix of strategies that included local transition probabilities and global string similarity. Although performance was above chance and quite high for kea, no individual of either species provided clear evidence of learning exactly the rule used to generate the training stimuli. Our results show that similar behavioral outcomes can be achieved using dramatically different strategies and highlight the dangers of combining multiple individuals in a group analysis. These findings, and our general approach, have implications for the design of future pattern learning experiments, and the interpretation of comparative cognition research more generally. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical decision-making by midwives: managing case complexity.

PubMed

Cioffi, J; Markham, R

1997-02-01

In making clinical judgements, it is argued that midwives use 'shortcuts' or heuristics based on estimated probabilities to simplify the decision-making task. Midwives (n = 30) were given simulated patient assessment situations of high and low complexity and were required to think aloud. Analysis of verbal protocols showed that subjective probability judgements (heuristics) were used more frequently in the high than low complexity case and predominated in the last quarter of the assessment period for the high complexity case. 'Representativeness' was identified more frequently in the high than in the low case, but was the dominant heuristic in both. Reports completed after each simulation suggest that heuristics based on memory for particular conditions affect decisions. It is concluded that midwives use heuristics, derived mainly from their clinical experiences, in an attempt to save cognitive effort and to facilitate reasonably accurate decisions in the decision-making process.

An internet graph model based on trade-off optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Hamelin, J. I.; Schabanel, N.

2004-03-01

This paper presents a new model for the Internet graph (AS graph) based on the concept of heuristic trade-off optimization, introduced by Fabrikant, Koutsoupias and Papadimitriou in[CITE] to grow a random tree with a heavily tailed degree distribution. We propose here a generalization of this approach to generate a general graph, as a candidate for modeling the Internet. We present the results of our simulations and an analysis of the standard parameters measured in our model, compared with measurements from the physical Internet graph.

Redshift drift in an inhomogeneous universe: averaging and the backreaction conjecture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koksbang, S.M.; Hannestad, S., E-mail: koksbang@phys.au.dk, E-mail: sth@phys.au.dk

2016-01-01

An expression for the average redshift drift in a statistically homogeneous and isotropic dust universe is given. The expression takes the same form as the expression for the redshift drift in FLRW models. It is used for a proof-of-principle study of the effects of backreaction on redshift drift measurements by combining the expression with two-region models. The study shows that backreaction can lead to positive redshift drift at low redshifts, exemplifying that a positive redshift drift at low redshifts does not require dark energy. Moreover, the study illustrates that models without a dark energy component can have an average redshiftmore » drift observationally indistinguishable from that of the standard model according to the currently expected precision of ELT measurements. In an appendix, spherically symmetric solutions to Einstein's equations with inhomogeneous dark energy and matter are used to study deviations from the average redshift drift and effects of local voids.« less

HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python.

PubMed

Wiecki, Thomas V; Sofer, Imri; Frank, Michael J

2013-01-01

The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision-making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on response times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of response time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model), which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject/condition than non-hierarchical methods, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g., fMRI) influence decision-making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of the drift diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the χ(2)-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs/

Optimal policy for value-based decision-making.

PubMed

Tajima, Satohiro; Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

2016-08-18

For decades now, normative theories of perceptual decisions, and their implementation as drift diffusion models, have driven and significantly improved our understanding of human and animal behaviour and the underlying neural processes. While similar processes seem to govern value-based decisions, we still lack the theoretical understanding of why this ought to be the case. Here, we show that, similar to perceptual decisions, drift diffusion models implement the optimal strategy for value-based decisions. Such optimal decisions require the models' decision boundaries to collapse over time, and to depend on the a priori knowledge about reward contingencies. Diffusion models only implement the optimal strategy under specific task assumptions, and cease to be optimal once we start relaxing these assumptions, by, for example, using non-linear utility functions. Our findings thus provide the much-needed theory for value-based decisions, explain the apparent similarity to perceptual decisions, and predict conditions under which this similarity should break down.

Optimal policy for value-based decision-making

PubMed Central

Tajima, Satohiro; Drugowitsch, Jan; Pouget, Alexandre

2016-01-01

For decades now, normative theories of perceptual decisions, and their implementation as drift diffusion models, have driven and significantly improved our understanding of human and animal behaviour and the underlying neural processes. While similar processes seem to govern value-based decisions, we still lack the theoretical understanding of why this ought to be the case. Here, we show that, similar to perceptual decisions, drift diffusion models implement the optimal strategy for value-based decisions. Such optimal decisions require the models' decision boundaries to collapse over time, and to depend on the a priori knowledge about reward contingencies. Diffusion models only implement the optimal strategy under specific task assumptions, and cease to be optimal once we start relaxing these assumptions, by, for example, using non-linear utility functions. Our findings thus provide the much-needed theory for value-based decisions, explain the apparent similarity to perceptual decisions, and predict conditions under which this similarity should break down. PMID:27535638

Heuristic Processes in Ratings of Leader Behavior: Assessing Item-Induced Availability Biases.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Binning, John F.; Fernandez, Guadalupe

Since observers' memory-based ratings of organizational phenomena provide data in research and decision-making contexts, bias in observers' judgments must be examined. A study was conducted to explore the extent to which leader behavior ratings are more generally biased by the availability heuristic. The availability heuristic is operative when a…

The Generation and Resemblance Heuristics in Face Recognition: Cooperation and Competition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kleider, Heather M.; Goldinger, Stephen D.

2006-01-01

Like all probabilistic decisions, recognition memory judgments are based on inferences about the strength and quality of stimulus familiarity. In recent articles, B. W. A. Whittlesea and J. Leboe (2000; J. Leboe & B. W. A. Whittlesea, 2002) proposed that such memory decisions entail various heuristics, similar to well-known heuristics in overt…

An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Samuels, W.B.; Huang, N.E.; Amstutz, D.E.

1982-01-01

The oilspill trajectory movement algorithm consists of a vector sum of the surface drift component due to wind and the surface current component. In the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill trajectory analysis model, the surface drift component is assumed to be 3.5% of the wind speed and is rotated 20 degrees clockwise to account for Coriolis effects in the Northern Hemisphere. Field and laboratory data suggest, however, that the deflection angle of the surface drift current can be highly variable. An empirical formula, based on field observations and theoretical arguments relating wind speed to deflection angle, was used to calculate a new deflection angle at each time step in the model. Comparisons of oilspill contact probabilities to coastal areas calculated for constant and variable deflection angles showed that the model is insensitive to this changing angle at low wind speeds. At high wind speeds, some statistically significant differences in contact probabilities did appear. ?? 1982.

Different types of drifts in two seasonal forecast systems and their dependence on ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermanson, L.; Ren, H.-L.; Vellinga, M.; Dunstone, N. D.; Hyder, P.; Ineson, S.; Scaife, A. A.; Smith, D. M.; Thompson, V.; Tian, B.; Williams, K. D.

2017-11-01

Seasonal forecasts using coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models are increasingly employed to provide regional climate predictions. For the quality of forecasts to improve, regional biases in climate models must be diagnosed and reduced. The evolution of biases as initialized forecasts drift away from the observations is poorly understood, making it difficult to diagnose the causes of climate model biases. This study uses two seasonal forecast systems to examine drifts in sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation, and compares them to the long-term bias in the free-running version of each model. Drifts are considered from daily to multi-annual time scales. We define three types of drift according to their relation with the long-term bias in the free-running model: asymptoting, overshooting and inverse drift. We find that precipitation almost always has an asymptoting drift. SST drifts on the other hand, vary between forecasting systems, where one often overshoots and the other often has an inverse drift. We find that some drifts evolve too slowly to have an impact on seasonal forecasts, even though they are important for climate projections. The bias found over the first few days can be very different from that in the free-running model, so although daily weather predictions can sometimes provide useful information on the causes of climate biases, this is not always the case. We also find that the magnitude of equatorial SST drifts, both in the Pacific and other ocean basins, depends on the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase. Averaging over all hindcast years can therefore hide the details of ENSO state dependent drifts and obscure the underlying physical causes. Our results highlight the need to consider biases across a range of timescales in order to understand their causes and develop improved climate models.

Turbulent transport regimes and the SOL heat flux width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myra, J. R.; D'Ippolito, D. A.; Russell, D. A.

2014-10-01

Understanding the responsible mechanisms and resulting scaling of the scrape-off layer (SOL) heat flux width is important for predicting viable operating regimes in future tokamaks, and for seeking possible mitigation schemes. Simulation and theory results using reduced edge/SOL turbulence models have produced SOL widths and scalings in reasonable accord with experiments in many cases. In this work, we attempt to qualitatively and conceptually understand various regimes of edge/SOL turbulence and the role of turbulent transport in establishing the SOL heat flux width. Relevant considerations include the type and spectral characteristics of underlying instabilities, the location of the gradient drive relative to the SOL, the nonlinear saturation mechanism, and the parallel heat transport regime. Recent SOLT turbulence code results are employed to understand the roles of these considerations and to develop analytical scalings. We find a heat flux width scaling with major radius R that is generally positive, consistent with older results reviewed in. The possible relationship of turbulence mechanisms to the heuristic drift mechanism is considered, together with implications for future experiments. Work supported by US DOE grant DE-FG02-97ER54392.

Ionospheric Plasma Drift Analysis Technique Based On Ray Tracing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ari, Gizem; Toker, Cenk

2016-07-01

Ionospheric drift measurements provide important information about the variability in the ionosphere, which can be used to quantify ionospheric disturbances caused by natural phenomena such as solar, geomagnetic, gravitational and seismic activities. One of the prominent ways for drift measurement depends on instrumentation based measurements, e.g. using an ionosonde. The drift estimation of an ionosonde depends on measuring the Doppler shift on the received signal, where the main cause of Doppler shift is the change in the length of the propagation path of the signal between the transmitter and the receiver. Unfortunately, ionosondes are expensive devices and their installation and maintenance require special care. Furthermore, the ionosonde network over the world or even Europe is not dense enough to obtain a global or continental drift map. In order to overcome the difficulties related to an ionosonde, we propose a technique to perform ionospheric drift estimation based on ray tracing. First, a two dimensional TEC map is constructed by using the IONOLAB-MAP tool which spatially interpolates the VTEC estimates obtained from the EUREF CORS network. Next, a three dimensional electron density profile is generated by inputting the TEC estimates to the IRI-2015 model. Eventually, a close-to-real situation electron density profile is obtained in which ray tracing can be performed. These profiles can be constructed periodically with a period of as low as 30 seconds. By processing two consequent snapshots together and calculating the propagation paths, we estimate the drift measurements over any coordinate of concern. We test our technique by comparing the results to the drift measurements taken at the DPS ionosonde at Pruhonice, Czech Republic. This study is supported by TUBITAK 115E915 and Joint TUBITAK 114E092 and AS CR14/001 projects.

Brownian motion with adaptive drift for remaining useful life prediction: Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2018-01-01

Linear Brownian motion with constant drift is widely used in remaining useful life predictions because its first hitting time follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. State space modelling of linear Brownian motion was proposed to make the drift coefficient adaptive and incorporate on-line measurements into the first hitting time distribution. Here, the drift coefficient followed the Gaussian distribution, and it was iteratively estimated by using Kalman filtering once a new measurement was available. Then, to model nonlinear degradation, linear Brownian motion with adaptive drift was extended to nonlinear Brownian motion with adaptive drift. However, in previous studies, an underlying assumption used in the state space modelling was that in the update phase of Kalman filtering, the predicted drift coefficient at the current time exactly equalled the posterior drift coefficient estimated at the previous time, which caused a contradiction with the predicted drift coefficient evolution driven by an additive Gaussian process noise. In this paper, to alleviate such an underlying assumption, a new state space model is constructed. As a result, in the update phase of Kalman filtering, the predicted drift coefficient at the current time evolves from the posterior drift coefficient at the previous time. Moreover, the optimal Kalman filtering gain for iteratively estimating the posterior drift coefficient at any time is mathematically derived. A discussion that theoretically explains the main reasons why the constructed state space model can result in high remaining useful life prediction accuracies is provided. Finally, the proposed state space model and its associated Kalman filtering gain are applied to battery prognostics.

Comparing the performance of expert user heuristics and an integer linear program in aircraft carrier deck operations.

PubMed

Ryan, Jason C; Banerjee, Ashis Gopal; Cummings, Mary L; Roy, Nicholas

2014-06-01

Planning operations across a number of domains can be considered as resource allocation problems with timing constraints. An unexplored instance of such a problem domain is the aircraft carrier flight deck, where, in current operations, replanning is done without the aid of any computerized decision support. Rather, veteran operators employ a set of experience-based heuristics to quickly generate new operating schedules. These expert user heuristics are neither codified nor evaluated by the United States Navy; they have grown solely from the convergent experiences of supervisory staff. As unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are introduced in the aircraft carrier domain, these heuristics may require alterations due to differing capabilities. The inclusion of UAVs also allows for new opportunities for on-line planning and control, providing an alternative to the current heuristic-based replanning methodology. To investigate these issues formally, we have developed a decision support system for flight deck operations that utilizes a conventional integer linear program-based planning algorithm. In this system, a human operator sets both the goals and constraints for the algorithm, which then returns a proposed schedule for operator approval. As a part of validating this system, the performance of this collaborative human-automation planner was compared with that of the expert user heuristics over a set of test scenarios. The resulting analysis shows that human heuristics often outperform the plans produced by an optimization algorithm, but are also often more conservative.

Improving the performance of the mass transfer-based reference evapotranspiration estimation approaches through a coupled wavelet-random forest methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiri, Jalal

2018-06-01

Among different reference evapotranspiration (ETo) modeling approaches, mass transfer-based methods have been less studied. These approaches utilize temperature and wind speed records. On the other hand, the empirical equations proposed in this context generally produce weak simulations, except when a local calibration is used for improving their performance. This might be a crucial drawback for those equations in case of local data scarcity for calibration procedure. So, application of heuristic methods can be considered as a substitute for improving the performance accuracy of the mass transfer-based approaches. However, given that the wind speed records have usually higher variation magnitudes than the other meteorological parameters, application of a wavelet transform for coupling with heuristic models would be necessary. In the present paper, a coupled wavelet-random forest (WRF) methodology was proposed for the first time to improve the performance accuracy of the mass transfer-based ETo estimation approaches using cross-validation data management scenarios in both local and cross-station scales. The obtained results revealed that the new coupled WRF model (with the minimum scatter index values of 0.150 and 0.192 for local and external applications, respectively) improved the performance accuracy of the single RF models as well as the empirical equations to great extent.

Beyond Decision Making: Cultural Ideology as Heuristic Paradigmatic Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitley, L. Darrell

A paradigmatic model of cultural ideology provides a context for understanding the relationship between decision-making and personal and cultural rationality. Cultural rules or heuristics exist which indicate that many decisions can be made on the basis of established strategy rather than continual analytical calculations. When an optimal solution…

Simple heuristics and rules of thumb: where psychologists and behavioural biologists might meet.

PubMed

Hutchinson, John M C; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2005-05-31

The Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition (ABC) has hypothesised that much human decision-making can be described by simple algorithmic process models (heuristics). This paper explains this approach and relates it to research in biology on rules of thumb, which we also review. As an example of a simple heuristic, consider the lexicographic strategy of Take The Best for choosing between two alternatives: cues are searched in turn until one discriminates, then search stops and all other cues are ignored. Heuristics consist of building blocks, and building blocks exploit evolved or learned abilities such as recognition memory; it is the complexity of these abilities that allows the heuristics to be simple. Simple heuristics have an advantage in making decisions fast and with little information, and in avoiding overfitting. Furthermore, humans are observed to use simple heuristics. Simulations show that the statistical structures of different environments affect which heuristics perform better, a relationship referred to as ecological rationality. We contrast ecological rationality with the stronger claim of adaptation. Rules of thumb from biology provide clearer examples of adaptation because animals can be studied in the environments in which they evolved. The range of examples is also much more diverse. To investigate them, biologists have sometimes used similar simulation techniques to ABC, but many examples depend on empirically driven approaches. ABC's theoretical framework can be useful in connecting some of these examples, particularly the scattered literature on how information from different cues is integrated. Optimality modelling is usually used to explain less detailed aspects of behaviour but might more often be redirected to investigate rules of thumb.

Figure Control of Lightweight Optical Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Main, John A.; Song, Haiping

2005-01-01

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate the use of fuzzy logic controllers in modifying the figure of a piezoceramic bimorph mirror. Non-contact electron actuation technology is used to actively control a bimorph mirror comprised two PZT-5H wafers by varying the electron flux and electron voltages. Due to electron blooming generated by the electron flux, it is difficult to develop an accurate control model for the bimorph mirror through theoretical analysis alone. The non-contact shape control system with electron flux blooming can be approximately described with a heuristic model based on experimental data. Two fuzzy logic feedback controllers are developed to control the shape of the bimorph mirror according to heuristic fuzzy inference rules generated from previous experimental results. Validation of the proposed fuzzy logic controllers is also discussed.

Nonlinear relationships can lead to bias in biomass calculations and drift-foraging models when using summaries of invertebrate drift data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dodrill, Michael J.; Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

Drift-foraging models offer a mechanistic description of how fish feed in flowing water and the application of drift-foraging bioenergetics models to answer both applied and theoretical questions in aquatic ecology is growing. These models typically include nonlinear descriptions of ecological processes and as a result may be sensitive to how model inputs are summarized because of a mathematical property of nonlinear equations known as Jensen’s inequality. In particular, we show that the way in which continuous size distributions of invertebrate prey are represented within foraging models can lead to biases within the modeling process. We begin by illustrating how different equations common to drift-foraging models are sensitive to invertebrate inputs. We then use two case studies to show how different representations of invertebrate prey can influence predictions of energy intake and lifetime growth. Greater emphasis should be placed on accurate characterizations of invertebrate drift, acknowledging that inferences from drift-foraging models may be influenced by how invertebrate prey are represented.

Cascaded Kalman and particle filters for photogrammetry based gyroscope drift and robot attitude estimation.

PubMed

Sadaghzadeh N, Nargess; Poshtan, Javad; Wagner, Achim; Nordheimer, Eugen; Badreddin, Essameddin

2014-03-01

Based on a cascaded Kalman-Particle Filtering, gyroscope drift and robot attitude estimation method is proposed in this paper. Due to noisy and erroneous measurements of MEMS gyroscope, it is combined with Photogrammetry based vision navigation scenario. Quaternions kinematics and robot angular velocity dynamics with augmented drift dynamics of gyroscope are employed as system state space model. Nonlinear attitude kinematics, drift and robot angular movement dynamics each in 3 dimensions result in a nonlinear high dimensional system. To reduce the complexity, we propose a decomposition of system to cascaded subsystems and then design separate cascaded observers. This design leads to an easier tuning and more precise debugging from the perspective of programming and such a setting is well suited for a cooperative modular system with noticeably reduced computation time. Kalman Filtering (KF) is employed for the linear and Gaussian subsystem consisting of angular velocity and drift dynamics together with gyroscope measurement. The estimated angular velocity is utilized as input of the second Particle Filtering (PF) based observer in two scenarios of stochastic and deterministic inputs. Simulation results are provided to show the efficiency of the proposed method. Moreover, the experimental results based on data from a 3D MEMS IMU and a 3D camera system are used to demonstrate the efficiency of the method. © 2013 ISA Published by ISA All rights reserved.

New insights into diversification of hyper-heuristics.

PubMed

Ren, Zhilei; Jiang, He; Xuan, Jifeng; Hu, Yan; Luo, Zhongxuan

2014-10-01

There has been a growing research trend of applying hyper-heuristics for problem solving, due to their ability of balancing the intensification and the diversification with low level heuristics. Traditionally, the diversification mechanism is mostly realized by perturbing the incumbent solutions to escape from local optima. In this paper, we report our attempt toward providing a new diversification mechanism, which is based on the concept of instance perturbation. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed mechanism achieves the diversification by perturbing the instance under solving, rather than the solutions. To tackle the challenge of incorporating instance perturbation into hyper-heuristics, we also design a new hyper-heuristic framework HIP-HOP (recursive acronym of HIP-HOP is an instance perturbation-based hyper-heuristic optimization procedure), which employs a grammar guided high level strategy to manipulate the low level heuristics. With the expressive power of the grammar, the constraints, such as the feasibility of the output solution could be easily satisfied. Numerical results and statistical tests over both the Ising spin glass problem and the p -median problem instances show that HIP-HOP is able to achieve promising performances. Furthermore, runtime distribution analysis reveals that, although being relatively slow at the beginning, HIP-HOP is able to achieve competitive solutions once given sufficient time.

Fluency heuristic: a model of how the mind exploits a by-product of information retrieval.

PubMed

Hertwig, Ralph; Herzog, Stefan M; Schooler, Lael J; Reimer, Torsten

2008-09-01

Boundedly rational heuristics for inference can be surprisingly accurate and frugal for several reasons. They can exploit environmental structures, co-opt complex capacities, and elude effortful search by exploiting information that automatically arrives on the mental stage. The fluency heuristic is a prime example of a heuristic that makes the most of an automatic by-product of retrieval from memory, namely, retrieval fluency. In 4 experiments, the authors show that retrieval fluency can be a proxy for real-world quantities, that people can discriminate between two objects' retrieval fluencies, and that people's inferences are in line with the fluency heuristic (in particular fast inferences) and with experimentally manipulated fluency. The authors conclude that the fluency heuristic may be one tool in the mind's repertoire of strategies that artfully probes memory for encapsulated frequency information that can veridically reflect statistical regularities in the world. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Multialternative drift-diffusion model predicts the relationship between visual fixations and choice in value-based decisions.

PubMed

Krajbich, Ian; Rangel, Antonio

2011-08-16

How do we make decisions when confronted with several alternatives (e.g., on a supermarket shelf)? Previous work has shown that accumulator models, such as the drift-diffusion model, can provide accurate descriptions of the psychometric data for binary value-based choices, and that the choice process is guided by visual attention. However, the computational processes used to make choices in more complicated situations involving three or more options are unknown. We propose a model of trinary value-based choice that generalizes what is known about binary choice, and test it using an eye-tracking experiment. We find that the model provides a quantitatively accurate description of the relationship between choice, reaction time, and visual fixation data using the same parameters that were estimated in previous work on binary choice. Our findings suggest that the brain uses similar computational processes to make binary and trinary choices.

Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Li, X.; Selesnick, R. S.; Looper, M. D.

2010-12-01

Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the fluxes and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a drift-diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), or precipitating (in the bounce loss cone), and the model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron loss rate can be estimated based on the optimum model parameter values. In this presentation we give an overview of our method and published results, followed by some recent improvements we made on the model, including updating the quantified electron lifetimes more frequently (e.g., every two hours instead of half a day) to achieve smoother variations, estimating the adiabatic effects at SAMPEX’s orbit and their influence on our model results, and calculating the error bar associated with each quantified electron lifetime. This method combining a model with low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, as required for any accurate modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Profiling of the injected charge drift current transients by cross-sectional scanning technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gaubas, E., E-mail: eugenijus.gaubas@ff.vu.lt; Ceponis, T.; Pavlov, J.

2014-02-07

The electric field distribution and charge drift currents in Si particle detectors are analyzed. Profiling of the injected charge drift current transients has been implemented by varying charge injection position within a cross-sectional boundary of the particle detector. The obtained profiles of the induction current density and duration of the injected charge drift pulses fit well the simulated current variations. Induction current transients have been interpreted by different stages of the bipolar and monopolar drift of the injected carriers. Profiles of the injected charge current transients registered in the non-irradiated and neutron irradiated Si diodes are compared. It has beenmore » shown that the mixed regime of the competing processes of drift, recombination, and diffusion appears in the measured current profiles on the irradiated samples. The impact of the avalanche effects can be ignored based on the investigations presented. It has been shown that even a simplified dynamic model enabled us to reproduce the main features of the profiled transients of induced charge drift current.« less

Drift diffusion model of reward and punishment learning in schizophrenia: Modeling and experimental data.

PubMed

Moustafa, Ahmed A; Kéri, Szabolcs; Somlai, Zsuzsanna; Balsdon, Tarryn; Frydecka, Dorota; Misiak, Blazej; White, Corey

2015-09-15

In this study, we tested reward- and punishment learning performance using a probabilistic classification learning task in patients with schizophrenia (n=37) and healthy controls (n=48). We also fit subjects' data using a Drift Diffusion Model (DDM) of simple decisions to investigate which components of the decision process differ between patients and controls. Modeling results show between-group differences in multiple components of the decision process. Specifically, patients had slower motor/encoding time, higher response caution (favoring accuracy over speed), and a deficit in classification learning for punishment, but not reward, trials. The results suggest that patients with schizophrenia adopt a compensatory strategy of favoring accuracy over speed to improve performance, yet still show signs of a deficit in learning based on negative feedback. Our data highlights the importance of applying fitting models (particularly drift diffusion models) to behavioral data. The implications of these findings are discussed relative to theories of schizophrenia and cognitive processing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Indoor Trajectory Tracking Scheme Based on Delaunay Triangulation and Heuristic Information in Wireless Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Qin, Junping; Sun, Shiwen; Deng, Qingxu; Liu, Limin; Tian, Yonghong

2017-06-02

Object tracking and detection is one of the most significant research areas for wireless sensor networks. Existing indoor trajectory tracking schemes in wireless sensor networks are based on continuous localization and moving object data mining. Indoor trajectory tracking based on the received signal strength indicator ( RSSI ) has received increased attention because it has low cost and requires no special infrastructure. However, RSSI tracking introduces uncertainty because of the inaccuracies of measurement instruments and the irregularities (unstable, multipath, diffraction) of wireless signal transmissions in indoor environments. Heuristic information includes some key factors for trajectory tracking procedures. This paper proposes a novel trajectory tracking scheme based on Delaunay triangulation and heuristic information (TTDH). In this scheme, the entire field is divided into a series of triangular regions. The common side of adjacent triangular regions is regarded as a regional boundary. Our scheme detects heuristic information related to a moving object's trajectory, including boundaries and triangular regions. Then, the trajectory is formed by means of a dynamic time-warping position-fingerprint-matching algorithm with heuristic information constraints. Field experiments show that the average error distance of our scheme is less than 1.5 m, and that error does not accumulate among the regions.

An Examination of the Sea Ice Rheology for Seasonal Ice Zones Based on Ice Drift and Thickness Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyota, Takenobu; Kimura, Noriaki

2018-02-01

The validity of the sea ice rheological model formulated by Hibler (1979), which is widely used in present numerical sea ice models, is examined for the Sea of Okhotsk as an example of the seasonal ice zone (SIZ), based on satellite-derived sea ice velocity, concentration and thickness. Our focus was the formulation of the yield curve, the shape of which can be estimated from ice drift pattern based on the energy equation of deformation, while the strength of the ice cover that determines its magnitude was evaluated using ice concentration and thickness data. Ice drift was obtained with a grid spacing of 37.5 km from the AMSR-E 89 GHz brightness temperature using a maximum cross-correlation method. The ice thickness was obtained with a spatial resolution of 100 m from a regression of the PALSAR backscatter coefficients with ice thickness. To assess scale dependence, the ice drift data derived from a coastal radar covering a 70 km range in the southernmost Sea of Okhotsk were similarly analyzed. The results obtained were mostly consistent with Hibler's formulation that was based on the Arctic Ocean on both scales with no dependence on a time scale, and justify the treatment of sea ice as a plastic material, with an elliptical shaped yield curve to some extent. However, it also highlights the difficulty in parameterizing sub-grid scale ridging in the model because grid scale ice velocities reduce the deformation magnitude by half due to the large variation of the deformation field in the SIZ.

PolyA Single Strand DNA Translocation Through an Alpha-Hemolysin Pore Stem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

OKeeffe, James; Cozmuta, Ioana; Stolc, Viktor

2003-01-01

A new model for the polymer-pore interaction energy is introduced, based on an atomic-scale description of coulombic polymer-pore interaction. The enhanced drift velocity, experimentally observed for short polymers, is successfully accounted for, using this interaction energy model. For R/R(sub 0)>4 (R(sub 0)=7 angstroms) the translocation velocity approaches the free space drift velocity v(sub 0). This motivates the need to appropriately derivatize artificial nanopores, where R>R(sub 0).

Simultaneous delivery time and aperture shape optimization for the volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatment planning problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahnam, Mehdi; Gendreau, Michel; Lahrichi, Nadia; Rousseau, Louis-Martin

2017-07-01

In this paper, we propose a novel heuristic algorithm for the volumetric-modulated arc therapy treatment planning problem, optimizing the trade-off between delivery time and treatment quality. We present a new mixed integer programming model in which the multi-leaf collimator leaf positions, gantry speed, and dose rate are determined simultaneously. Our heuristic is based on column generation; the aperture configuration is modeled in the columns and the dose distribution and time restriction in the rows. To reduce the number of voxels and increase the efficiency of the master model, we aggregate similar voxels using a clustering technique. The efficiency of the algorithm and the treatment quality are evaluated on a benchmark clinical prostate cancer case. The computational results show that a high-quality treatment is achievable using a four-thread CPU. Finally, we analyze the effects of the various parameters and two leaf-motion strategies.

Optimizing Controlling-Value-Based Power Gating with Gate Count and Switching Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Lei; Kimura, Shinji

In this paper, a new heuristic algorithm is proposed to optimize the power domain clustering in controlling-value-based (CV-based) power gating technology. In this algorithm, both the switching activity of sleep signals (p) and the overall numbers of sleep gates (gate count, N) are considered, and the sum of the product of p and N is optimized. The algorithm effectively exerts the total power reduction obtained from the CV-based power gating. Even when the maximum depth is kept to be the same, the proposed algorithm can still achieve power reduction approximately 10% more than that of the prior algorithms. Furthermore, detailed comparison between the proposed heuristic algorithm and other possible heuristic algorithms are also presented. HSPICE simulation results show that over 26% of total power reduction can be obtained by using the new heuristic algorithm. In addition, the effect of dynamic power reduction through the CV-based power gating method and the delay overhead caused by the switching of sleep transistors are also shown in this paper.

Interactions between Arctic sea ice drift, concentration and thickness modeled by NEMO-LIM3 at different resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Docquier, David; Massonnet, François; Raulier, Jonathan; Lecomte, Olivier; Fichefet, Thierry

2016-04-01

Sea ice concentration and thickness have substantially decreased in the Arctic since the beginning of the satellite era. As a result, mechanical strength has decreased allowing more fracturing and leading to increased sea ice drift. However, recent studies have highlighted that the interplay between sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics is poorly represented in contemporary global climate model (GCM) simulations. Thus, the considerable inter-model spread in terms of future sea ice extent projections could be reduced by better understanding the interactions between drift, concentration and thickness. This study focuses on the results coming from the global coupled ocean-sea ice model NEMO-LIM3 between 1979 and 2012. Three different simulations are forced by the Drakkar Forcing Set (DFS) 5.2 and run on the global tripolar ORCA grid at spatial resolutions of 0.25, 1° and 2°. The relation between modeled sea ice drift, concentration and thickness is further analyzed, compared to observations and discussed in the framework of the above-mentioned poor representation. It is proposed as a process-based metric for evaluating model performance. This study forms part of the EU Horizon 2020 PRIMAVERA project aiming at developing a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution GCMs.

[Ambivalence--a key concept in gerontology? Elements of heuristics exemplified by identity formation in old age].

PubMed

Lüscher, Kurt; Haller, Miriam

2016-01-01

Ambivalence is a widely used concept in gerontology, mostly used in the common sense meaning. We propose that an elaborated notion based on the historical and systematic analysis, reveals important theoretical, methodological and practical potentials of the idea of ambivalence for the study of aging. We exemplify this view by proposing a heuristic perspective for the analysis of processes to constitute and reconstitute identities in old age using a model based on a multidimensional understanding of ambivalence. Ambivalence is defined as referring to the experiences of vacillating between polar contradictions of feeling, thinking, wanting and social structures in the search for the sense and meaning of social relationships, facts and texts, which are important for unfolding and altering facets of the self and agency.

The recognition heuristic: a review of theory and tests.

PubMed

Pachur, Thorsten; Todd, Peter M; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Schooler, Lael J; Goldstein, Daniel G

2011-01-01

The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a) that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b) that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c) that recognition supersedes further cue knowledge; (d) that its use can produce the less-is-more effect - the phenomenon that lesser states of recognition knowledge can lead to more accurate inferences than more complete states. After we contrast the recognition heuristic to other related concepts, including availability and fluency, we carve out, from the existing findings, some boundary conditions of the use of the recognition heuristic as well as key questions for future research. Moreover, we summarize developments concerning the connection of the recognition heuristic with memory models. We suggest that the recognition heuristic is used adaptively and that, compared to other cues, recognition seems to have a special status in decision making. Finally, we discuss how systematic ignorance is exploited in other cognitive mechanisms (e.g., estimation and preference).

Managing Heuristics as a Method of Inquiry in Autobiographical Graphic Design Theses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ings, Welby

2011-01-01

This article draws on case studies undertaken in postgraduate research at AUT University, Auckland. It seeks to address a number of issues related to heuristic inquiries employed by graphic design students who use autobiographical approaches when developing research-based theses. For this type of thesis, heuristics as a system of inquiry may…

Dike/Drift Interactions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Gaffiney

2004-11-23

This report presents and documents the model components and analyses that represent potential processes associated with propagation of a magma-filled crack (dike) migrating upward toward the surface, intersection of the dike with repository drifts, flow of magma in the drifts, and post-magma emplacement effects on repository performance. The processes that describe upward migration of a dike and magma flow down the drift are referred to as the dike intrusion submodel. The post-magma emplacement processes are referred to as the post-intrusion submodel. Collectively, these submodels are referred to as a conceptual model for dike/drift interaction. The model components and analyses ofmore » the dike/drift interaction conceptual model provide the technical basis for assessing the potential impacts of an igneous intrusion on repository performance, including those features, events, and processes (FEPs) related to dike/drift interaction (Section 6.1).« less

Radar studies of midlatitude ionospheric plasma drifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherliess, L.; Fejer, B. G.; Holt, J.; Goncharenko, L.; Amory-Mazaudier, C.; Buonsanto, M. J.

2001-02-01

We use incoherent scatter radar measurements from Millstone Hill and Saint Santin to study the midlatitude F region electrodynamic plasma drifts during geomagnetically quiet and active periods. We present initially a local time, season, and solar flux dependent analytical model of the quiet time zonal and meridional E×B drifts over these stations. We discuss, for the first time, the Saint Santin drift patterns during solar maximum. We have used these quiet time models to extract the geomagnetic perturbation drifts which were modeled as a function of the time history of the auroral electrojet indices. Our results illustrate the evolution of the disturbance drifts driven by the combined effects of prompt penetration and longer lasting perturbation electric fields. The meridional electrodynamic disturbance drifts have largest amplitudes in the midnight-noon sector. The zonal drifts are predominantly westward, with largest amplitudes in the dusk-midnight sector and, following a decrease in the high-latitude convection, they decay more slowly than the meridional drifts. The prompt penetration and steady state zonal disturbance drifts derived from radar measurements are in good agreement with results obtained from both the ion drift meter data on board the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite and from the Rice Convection Model.

Academic Motivation, Self-Concept, Engagement, and Performance in High School: Key Processes from a Longitudinal Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Jasmine; Liem, Gregory Arief D.; Martin, Andrew J.; Colmar, Susan; Marsh, Herbert W.; McInerney, Dennis

2012-01-01

The study tested three theoretically/conceptually hypothesized longitudinal models of academic processes leading to academic performance. Based on a longitudinal sample of 1866 high-school students across two consecutive years of high school (Time 1 and Time 2), the model with the most superior heuristic value demonstrated: (a) academic motivation…

Measurements and modeling of intra-ELM tungsten sourcing and transport in DIII-D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abrams, T.; Leonard, A. W.; Thomas, D. M.; McLean, A. G.; Makowski, M. A.; Wang, H. Q.; Unterberg, E. A.; Briesemeister, A. R.; Rudakov, D. L.; Bykov, I.; Donovan, D.

2017-10-01

Intra-ELM tungsten erosion profiles in the DIII-D divertor, acquired via W I spectroscopy with high temporal and spatial resolution, are consistent with SDTrim.SP sputtering modeling using measured ion saturation currents and impact energies during ELMs as input and an ad-hoc 2% C2+ impurity flux. The W sputtering profile peaks close to the OSP both during and between ELMs in the favorable BT direction. In reverse BT the W source peaks close to the OSP between ELMs but strongly broadens and shifts outboard during ELMs, heuristically consistent with radially outward ion transport via ExB drifts. Ion impact energies during ELMs (inferred taking the ratio of divertor heat flux to the ion saturation current) are found to be approximately equal to Te,ped, lower than the 4*Te,ped value predicted by the Fundamenski/Moulton free streaming model. These impact energies imply both D main ions and C impurities contribute strongly to W sputtering during ELMs on DIII-D. This work represents progress towards a predictive model to link upstream conditions (i.e., pedestal height) and SOL impurity levels to the ELM-induced W impurity source at both the strike-point and far-target regions in the ITER divertor. Correlations between ELM size/frequency and SOL W fluxes measured via a midplane deposition probe will also be presented. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698.

Evaluating a Web-Based Interface for Internet Telemedicine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lathan, Corinna E.; Newman, Dava J.; Sebrechts, Marc M.; Doarn, Charles R.

1997-01-01

The objective is to introduce the usability engineering methodology, heuristic evaluation, to the design and development of a web-based telemedicine system. Using a set of usability criteria, or heuristics, one evaluator examined the Spacebridge to Russia web-site for usability problems. Thirty-four usability problems were found in this preliminary study and all were assigned a severity rating. The value of heuristic analysis in the iterative design of a system is shown because the problems can be fixed before deployment of a system and the problems are of a different nature than those found by actual users of the system. It was therefore determined that there is potential value of heuristic evaluation paired with user testing as a strategy for optimal system performance design.

Wave drift damping acting on multiple circular cylinders (model tests)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinoshita, Takeshi; Sunahara, Shunji; Bao, W.

1995-12-31

The wave drift damping for the slow drift motion of a four-column platform is experimentally investigated. The estimation of damping force of the slow drift motion of moored floating structures in ocean waves, is one of the most important topics. Bao et al. calculated an interaction of multiple circular cylinders based on the potential flow theory, and showed that the wave drift damping is significantly influenced by the interaction between cylinders. This calculation method assumes that the slow drift motion is approximately replaced by steady current, that is, structures on slow drift motion are supposed to be equivalent to onesmore » in both regular waves and slow current. To validate semi-analytical solutions of Bao et al., experiments were carried out. At first, added resistance due to waves acting on a structure composed of multiple (four) vertical circular cylinders fixed to a slowly moving carriage, was measured in regular waves. Next, the added resistance of the structure moored by linear spring to the slowly moving carriage were measured in regular waves. Furthermore, to validate the assumption that the slow drift motion is replaced by steady current, free decay tests in still water and in regular waves were compared with the simulation of the slow drift motion using the wave drift damping coefficient obtained by the added resistance tests.« less

A computational approach to animal breeding.

PubMed

Berger-Wolf, Tanya Y; Moore, Cristopher; Saia, Jared

2007-02-07

We propose a computational model of mating strategies for controlled animal breeding programs. A mating strategy in a controlled breeding program is a heuristic with some optimization criteria as a goal. Thus, it is appropriate to use the computational tools available for analysis of optimization heuristics. In this paper, we propose the first discrete model of the controlled animal breeding problem and analyse heuristics for two possible objectives: (1) breeding for maximum diversity and (2) breeding a target individual. These two goals are representative of conservation biology and agricultural livestock management, respectively. We evaluate several mating strategies and provide upper and lower bounds for the expected number of matings. While the population parameters may vary and can change the actual number of matings for a particular strategy, the order of magnitude of the number of expected matings and the relative competitiveness of the mating heuristics remains the same. Thus, our simple discrete model of the animal breeding problem provides a novel viable and robust approach to designing and comparing breeding strategies in captive populations.

Runway Scheduling Using Generalized Dynamic Programming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Montoya, Justin; Wood, Zachary; Rathinam, Sivakumar

2011-01-01

A generalized dynamic programming method for finding a set of pareto optimal solutions for a runway scheduling problem is introduced. The algorithm generates a set of runway fight sequences that are optimal for both runway throughput and delay. Realistic time-based operational constraints are considered, including miles-in-trail separation, runway crossings, and wake vortex separation. The authors also model divergent runway takeoff operations to allow for reduced wake vortex separation. A modeled Dallas/Fort Worth International airport and three baseline heuristics are used to illustrate preliminary benefits of using the generalized dynamic programming method. Simulated traffic levels ranged from 10 aircraft to 30 aircraft with each test case spanning 15 minutes. The optimal solution shows a 40-70 percent decrease in the expected delay per aircraft over the baseline schedulers. Computational results suggest that the algorithm is promising for real-time application with an average computation time of 4.5 seconds. For even faster computation times, two heuristics are developed. As compared to the optimal, the heuristics are within 5% of the expected delay per aircraft and 1% of the expected number of runway operations per hour ad can be 100x faster.

A heuristic for efficient data distribution management in distributed simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Pankaj; Guha, Ratan K.

2005-05-01

In this paper, we propose an algorithm for reducing the complexity of region matching and efficient multicasting in data distribution management component of High Level Architecture (HLA) Run Time Infrastructure (RTI). The current data distribution management (DDM) techniques rely on computing the intersection between the subscription and update regions. When a subscription region and an update region of different federates overlap, RTI establishes communication between the publisher and the subscriber. It subsequently routes the updates from the publisher to the subscriber. The proposed algorithm computes the update/subscription regions matching for dynamic allocation of multicast group. It provides new multicast routines that exploit the connectivity of federation by communicating updates regarding interactions and routes information only to those federates that require them. The region-matching problem in DDM reduces to clique-covering problem using the connections graph abstraction where the federations represent the vertices and the update/subscribe relations represent the edges. We develop an abstract model based on connection graph for data distribution management. Using this abstract model, we propose a heuristic for solving the region-matching problem of DDM. We also provide complexity analysis of the proposed heuristics.

Whole School English Learner Reform: A Heuristic Approach to Professional Learning in Middle Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Plough, Bobbie; Garcia, Ray

2015-01-01

This work highlights a heuristic model for professional learning while examining the implementation of a reform initiative. The researchers used longitudinal data collected from surveys to develop and fit a model of professional learning where patterns of interaction among teachers changed the discussion about English learner instruction. Data…

Academic Freedom in Classroom Speech: A Heuristic Model for U.S. Catholic Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacobs, Richard M.

2010-01-01

As the nation's Catholic universities and colleges continually clarify their identity, this article examines academic freedom in classroom speech, offering a heuristic model for use as board members, academic administrators, and faculty leaders discuss, evaluate, and judge allegations of misconduct in classroom speech. Focusing upon the practice…

Spray droplet size, drift potential, and risks to nontarget organisms from aerially applied glyphosate for coca control in Colombia.

PubMed

Hewitt, Andrew J; Solomon, Keith R; Marshall, E J P

2009-01-01

A wind tunnel atomization study was conducted to measure the emission droplet size spectra for water and Glyphos (a glyphosate formulation sold in Colombia) + Cosmo-flux sprays for aerial application to control coca and poppy crops in Colombia. The droplet size spectra were measured in a wind tunnel for an Accu-Flo nozzle (with 16 size 0.085 [2.16 mm] orifices), under appropriate simulated aircraft speeds (up to 333 km/h), using a laser diffraction instrument covering a dynamic size range for droplets of 0.5 to 3,500 microm. The spray drift potential of the glyphosate was modeled using the AGDISP spray application and drift model, using input parameters representative of those occurring in Colombia for typical aerial application operations. The droplet size spectra for tank mixes containing glyphosate and Cosmo-Flux were considerably finer than water and became finer with higher aircraft speeds. The tank mix with 44% glyphosate had a D(v0.5) of 128 microm, while the value at the 4.9% glyphosate rate was 140 microm. These are classified as very fine to fine sprays. Despite being relatively fine, modeling showed that the droplets would not evaporate as rapidly as most similarly sized agricultural sprays because the nonvolatile proportion of the tank mix (active and inert adjuvant ingredients) was large. Thus, longer range drift is small and most drift that does occur will deposit relatively close to the application area. Drift will only occur downwind and, with winds of velocity less than the modeled maximum of 9 km/h, the drift distance would be substantially reduced. Spray drift potential might be additionally reduced through various practices such as the selection of nozzles, tank mix adjuvants, aircraft speeds, and spray pressures that would produce coarser sprays. Species sensitivity distributions to glyphosate were constructed for plants and amphibians. Based on modeled drift and 5th centile concentrations, appropriate no-spray buffer zones (distance from the end of the spray boom as recorded electronically +/-5%) for protection of sensitive plants were 50-120 m for coca spray scenarios and considerably lower for poppy spray scenarios. The equivalent buffer zone for amphibia was 5 m. The low toxicity of glyphosate to humans suggests that these aerial applications are not a concern for human health.

Learning From Short Text Streams With Topic Drifts.

PubMed

Li, Peipei; He, Lu; Wang, Haiyan; Hu, Xuegang; Zhang, Yuhong; Li, Lei; Wu, Xindong

2017-09-18

Short text streams such as search snippets and micro blogs have been popular on the Web with the emergence of social media. Unlike traditional normal text streams, these data present the characteristics of short length, weak signal, high volume, high velocity, topic drift, etc. Short text stream classification is hence a very challenging and significant task. However, this challenge has received little attention from the research community. Therefore, a new feature extension approach is proposed for short text stream classification with the help of a large-scale semantic network obtained from a Web corpus. It is built on an incremental ensemble classification model for efficiency. First, more semantic contexts based on the senses of terms in short texts are introduced to make up of the data sparsity using the open semantic network, in which all terms are disambiguated by their semantics to reduce the noise impact. Second, a concept cluster-based topic drifting detection method is proposed to effectively track hidden topic drifts. Finally, extensive studies demonstrate that as compared to several well-known concept drifting detection methods in data stream, our approach can detect topic drifts effectively, and it enables handling short text streams effectively while maintaining the efficiency as compared to several state-of-the-art short text classification approaches.

Progressive Transitions from Algorithmic to Conceptual Understanding in Student Ability To Solve Chemistry Problems: A Lakatosian Interpretation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Niaz, Mansoor

The main objective of this study is to construct models based on strategies students use to solve chemistry problems and to show that these models form sequences of progressive transitions similar to what Lakatos (1970) in the history of science refers to as progressive 'problemshifts' that increase the explanatory' heuristic power of the models.…

Adaptive Non-Interventional Heuristics for Covariation Detection in Causal Induction: Model Comparison and Rational Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hattori, Masasi; Oaksford, Mike

2007-01-01

In this article, 41 models of covariation detection from 2 x 2 contingency tables were evaluated against past data in the literature and against data from new experiments. A new model was also included based on a limiting case of the normative phi-coefficient under an extreme rarity assumption, which has been shown to be an important factor in…

Automated discovery of local search heuristics for satisfiability testing.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Alex S

2008-01-01

The development of successful metaheuristic algorithms such as local search for a difficult problem such as satisfiability testing (SAT) is a challenging task. We investigate an evolutionary approach to automating the discovery of new local search heuristics for SAT. We show that several well-known SAT local search algorithms such as Walksat and Novelty are composite heuristics that are derived from novel combinations of a set of building blocks. Based on this observation, we developed CLASS, a genetic programming system that uses a simple composition operator to automatically discover SAT local search heuristics. New heuristics discovered by CLASS are shown to be competitive with the best Walksat variants, including Novelty+. Evolutionary algorithms have previously been applied to directly evolve a solution for a particular SAT instance. We show that the heuristics discovered by CLASS are also competitive with these previous, direct evolutionary approaches for SAT. We also analyze the local search behavior of the learned heuristics using the depth, mobility, and coverage metrics proposed by Schuurmans and Southey.

Joint Power Charging and Routing in Wireless Rechargeable Sensor Networks.

PubMed

Jia, Jie; Chen, Jian; Deng, Yansha; Wang, Xingwei; Aghvami, Abdol-Hamid

2017-10-09

The development of wireless power transfer (WPT) technology has inspired the transition from traditional battery-based wireless sensor networks (WSNs) towards wireless rechargeable sensor networks (WRSNs). While extensive efforts have been made to improve charging efficiency, little has been done for routing optimization. In this work, we present a joint optimization model to maximize both charging efficiency and routing structure. By analyzing the structure of the optimization model, we first decompose the problem and propose a heuristic algorithm to find the optimal charging efficiency for the predefined routing tree. Furthermore, by coding the many-to-one communication topology as an individual, we further propose to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) for the joint optimization of both routing and charging. The genetic operations, including tree-based recombination and mutation, are proposed to obtain a fast convergence. Our simulation results show that the heuristic algorithm reduces the number of resident locations and the total moving distance. We also show that our proposed algorithm achieves a higher charging efficiency compared with existing algorithms.

Joint Power Charging and Routing in Wireless Rechargeable Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Jia, Jie; Chen, Jian; Deng, Yansha; Wang, Xingwei; Aghvami, Abdol-Hamid

2017-01-01

The development of wireless power transfer (WPT) technology has inspired the transition from traditional battery-based wireless sensor networks (WSNs) towards wireless rechargeable sensor networks (WRSNs). While extensive efforts have been made to improve charging efficiency, little has been done for routing optimization. In this work, we present a joint optimization model to maximize both charging efficiency and routing structure. By analyzing the structure of the optimization model, we first decompose the problem and propose a heuristic algorithm to find the optimal charging efficiency for the predefined routing tree. Furthermore, by coding the many-to-one communication topology as an individual, we further propose to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) for the joint optimization of both routing and charging. The genetic operations, including tree-based recombination and mutation, are proposed to obtain a fast convergence. Our simulation results show that the heuristic algorithm reduces the number of resident locations and the total moving distance. We also show that our proposed algorithm achieves a higher charging efficiency compared with existing algorithms. PMID:28991200

Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolutionary Strategy for Drift Correction of Electronic Nose Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Carlo, S.; Falasconi, M.; Sanchez, E.; Sberveglieri, G.; Scionti, A.; Squillero, G.; Tonda, A.

2011-09-01

Electronic Noses (ENs) might represent a simple, fast, high sample throughput and economic alternative to conventional analytical instruments [1]. However, gas sensors drift still limits the EN adoption in real industrial setups due to high recalibration effort and cost [2]. In fact, pattern recognition (PaRC) models built in the training phase become useless after a period of time, in some cases a few weeks. Although algorithms to mitigate the drift date back to the early 90 this is still a challenging issue for the chemical sensor community [3]. Among other approaches, adaptive drift correction methods adjust the PaRC model in parallel with data acquisition without need of periodic calibration. Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs) [4] and Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) networks [5] have been already tested in the past with fair success. This paper presents and discusses an original methodology based on a Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES) [6], suited for stochastic optimization of complex problems.

Value-based decision making via sequential sampling with hierarchical competition and attentional modulation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In principle, formal dynamical models of decision making hold the potential to represent fundamental computations underpinning value-based (i.e., preferential) decisions in addition to perceptual decisions. Sequential-sampling models such as the race model and the drift-diffusion model that are grounded in simplicity, analytical tractability, and optimality remain popular, but some of their more recent counterparts have instead been designed with an aim for more feasibility as architectures to be implemented by actual neural systems. Connectionist models are proposed herein at an intermediate level of analysis that bridges mental phenomena and underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. Several such models drawing elements from the established race, drift-diffusion, feedforward-inhibition, divisive-normalization, and competing-accumulator models were tested with respect to fitting empirical data from human participants making choices between foods on the basis of hedonic value rather than a traditional perceptual attribute. Even when considering performance at emulating behavior alone, more neurally plausible models were set apart from more normative race or drift-diffusion models both quantitatively and qualitatively despite remaining parsimonious. To best capture the paradigm, a novel six-parameter computational model was formulated with features including hierarchical levels of competition via mutual inhibition as well as a static approximation of attentional modulation, which promotes “winner-take-all” processing. Moreover, a meta-analysis encompassing several related experiments validated the robustness of model-predicted trends in humans’ value-based choices and concomitant reaction times. These findings have yet further implications for analysis of neurophysiological data in accordance with computational modeling, which is also discussed in this new light. PMID:29077746

Value-based decision making via sequential sampling with hierarchical competition and attentional modulation.

PubMed

Colas, Jaron T

2017-01-01

In principle, formal dynamical models of decision making hold the potential to represent fundamental computations underpinning value-based (i.e., preferential) decisions in addition to perceptual decisions. Sequential-sampling models such as the race model and the drift-diffusion model that are grounded in simplicity, analytical tractability, and optimality remain popular, but some of their more recent counterparts have instead been designed with an aim for more feasibility as architectures to be implemented by actual neural systems. Connectionist models are proposed herein at an intermediate level of analysis that bridges mental phenomena and underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. Several such models drawing elements from the established race, drift-diffusion, feedforward-inhibition, divisive-normalization, and competing-accumulator models were tested with respect to fitting empirical data from human participants making choices between foods on the basis of hedonic value rather than a traditional perceptual attribute. Even when considering performance at emulating behavior alone, more neurally plausible models were set apart from more normative race or drift-diffusion models both quantitatively and qualitatively despite remaining parsimonious. To best capture the paradigm, a novel six-parameter computational model was formulated with features including hierarchical levels of competition via mutual inhibition as well as a static approximation of attentional modulation, which promotes "winner-take-all" processing. Moreover, a meta-analysis encompassing several related experiments validated the robustness of model-predicted trends in humans' value-based choices and concomitant reaction times. These findings have yet further implications for analysis of neurophysiological data in accordance with computational modeling, which is also discussed in this new light.

Solving a supply chain scheduling problem with non-identical job sizes and release times by applying a novel effective heuristic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pei, Jun; Liu, Xinbao; Pardalos, Panos M.; Fan, Wenjuan; Wang, Ling; Yang, Shanlin

2016-03-01

Motivated by applications in manufacturing industry, we consider a supply chain scheduling problem, where each job is characterised by non-identical sizes, different release times and unequal processing times. The objective is to minimise the makespan by making batching and sequencing decisions. The problem is formalised as a mixed integer programming model and proved to be strongly NP-hard. Some structural properties are presented for both the general case and a special case. Based on these properties, a lower bound is derived, and a novel two-phase heuristic (TP-H) is developed to solve the problem, which guarantees to obtain a worst case performance ratio of ?. Computational experiments with a set of different sizes of random instances are conducted to evaluate the proposed approach TP-H, which is superior to another two heuristics proposed in the literature. Furthermore, the experimental results indicate that TP-H can effectively and efficiently solve large-size problems in a reasonable time.

Collisional transport across the magnetic field in drift-fluid models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Madsen, J., E-mail: jmad@fysik.dtu.dk; Naulin, V.; Nielsen, A. H.

2016-03-15

Drift ordered fluid models are widely applied in studies of low-frequency turbulence in the edge and scrape-off layer regions of magnetically confined plasmas. Here, we show how collisional transport across the magnetic field is self-consistently incorporated into drift-fluid models without altering the drift-fluid energy integral. We demonstrate that the inclusion of collisional transport in drift-fluid models gives rise to diffusion of particle density, momentum, and pressures in drift-fluid turbulence models and, thereby, obviates the customary use of artificial diffusion in turbulence simulations. We further derive a computationally efficient, two-dimensional model, which can be time integrated for several turbulence de-correlation timesmore » using only limited computational resources. The model describes interchange turbulence in a two-dimensional plane perpendicular to the magnetic field located at the outboard midplane of a tokamak. The model domain has two regions modeling open and closed field lines. The model employs a computational expedient model for collisional transport. Numerical simulations show good agreement between the full and the simplified model for collisional transport.« less

Does the inherence heuristic take us to psychological essentialism?

PubMed

Marmodoro, Anna; Murphy, Robin A; Baker, A G

2014-10-01

We argue that the claim that essence-based causal explanations emerge, hydra-like, from an inherence heuristic is incomplete. No plausible mechanism for the transition from concrete properties, or cues, to essences is provided. Moreover, the fundamental shotgun and storytelling mechanisms of the inherence heuristic are not clearly enough specified to distinguish them, developmentally, from associative or causal networks.

The memory state heuristic: A formal model based on repeated recognition judgments.

PubMed

Castela, Marta; Erdfelder, Edgar

2017-02-01

The recognition heuristic (RH) theory predicts that, in comparative judgment tasks, if one object is recognized and the other is not, the recognized one is chosen. The memory-state heuristic (MSH) extends the RH by assuming that choices are not affected by recognition judgments per se, but by the memory states underlying these judgments (i.e., recognition certainty, uncertainty, or rejection certainty). Specifically, the larger the discrepancy between memory states, the larger the probability of choosing the object in the higher state. The typical RH paradigm does not allow estimation of the underlying memory states because it is unknown whether the objects were previously experienced or not. Therefore, we extended the paradigm by repeating the recognition task twice. In line with high threshold models of recognition, we assumed that inconsistent recognition judgments result from uncertainty whereas consistent judgments most likely result from memory certainty. In Experiment 1, we fitted 2 nested multinomial models to the data: an MSH model that formalizes the relation between memory states and binary choices explicitly and an approximate model that ignores the (unlikely) possibility of consistent guesses. Both models provided converging results. As predicted, reliance on recognition increased with the discrepancy in the underlying memory states. In Experiment 2, we replicated these results and found support for choice consistency predictions of the MSH. Additionally, recognition and choice latencies were in agreement with the MSH in both experiments. Finally, we validated critical parameters of our MSH model through a cross-validation method and a third experiment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Progress towards modeling tokamak boundary plasma turbulence and understanding its role in setting divertor heat flux widths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Xu, X. Q.; Xia, T. Y.; Li, N. M.; Porkolab, M.; Edlund, E.; LaBombard, B.; Terry, J.; Hughes, J. W.; Ye, M. Y.; Wan, Y. X.

2018-05-01

The heat flux distributions on divertor targets in H-mode plasmas are serious concerns for future devices. We seek to simulate the tokamak boundary plasma turbulence and heat transport in the edge localized mode-suppressed regimes. The improved BOUT++ model shows that not only Ip but also the radial electric field Er plays an important role on the turbulence behavior and sets the heat flux width. Instead of calculating Er from the pressure gradient term (diamagnetic Er), it is calculated from the plasma transport equations with the sheath potential in the scrape-off layer and the plasma density and temperature profiles inside the separatrix from the experiment. The simulation results with the new Er model have better agreement with the experiment than using the diamagnetic Er model: (1) The electromagnetic turbulence in enhanced Dα H-mode shows the characteristics of quasi-coherent modes (QCMs) and broadband turbulence. The mode spectra are in agreement with the phase contrast imaging data and almost has no change in comparison to the cases which use the diamagnetic Er model; (2) the self-consistent boundary Er is needed for the turbulence simulations to get the consistent heat flux width with the experiment; (3) the frequencies of the QCMs are proportional to Er, while the divertor heat flux widths are inversely proportional to Er; and (4) the BOUT++ turbulence simulations yield a similar heat flux width to the experimental Eich scaling law and the prediction from the Goldston heuristic drift model.

Systematic assignment of thermodynamic constraints in metabolic network models

PubMed Central

Kümmel, Anne; Panke, Sven; Heinemann, Matthias

2006-01-01

Background The availability of genome sequences for many organisms enabled the reconstruction of several genome-scale metabolic network models. Currently, significant efforts are put into the automated reconstruction of such models. For this, several computational tools have been developed that particularly assist in identifying and compiling the organism-specific lists of metabolic reactions. In contrast, the last step of the model reconstruction process, which is the definition of the thermodynamic constraints in terms of reaction directionalities, still needs to be done manually. No computational method exists that allows for an automated and systematic assignment of reaction directions in genome-scale models. Results We present an algorithm that – based on thermodynamics, network topology and heuristic rules – automatically assigns reaction directions in metabolic models such that the reaction network is thermodynamically feasible with respect to the production of energy equivalents. It first exploits all available experimentally derived Gibbs energies of formation to identify irreversible reactions. As these thermodynamic data are not available for all metabolites, in a next step, further reaction directions are assigned on the basis of network topology considerations and thermodynamics-based heuristic rules. Briefly, the algorithm identifies reaction subsets from the metabolic network that are able to convert low-energy co-substrates into their high-energy counterparts and thus net produce energy. Our algorithm aims at disabling such thermodynamically infeasible cyclic operation of reaction subnetworks by assigning reaction directions based on a set of thermodynamics-derived heuristic rules. We demonstrate our algorithm on a genome-scale metabolic model of E. coli. The introduced systematic direction assignment yielded 130 irreversible reactions (out of 920 total reactions), which corresponds to about 70% of all irreversible reactions that are required to disable thermodynamically infeasible energy production. Conclusion Although not being fully comprehensive, our algorithm for systematic reaction direction assignment could define a significant number of irreversible reactions automatically with low computational effort. We envision that the presented algorithm is a valuable part of a computational framework that assists the automated reconstruction of genome-scale metabolic models. PMID:17123434

Optimization Models for Scheduling of Jobs

PubMed Central

Indika, S. H. Sathish; Shier, Douglas R.

2006-01-01

This work is motivated by a particular scheduling problem that is faced by logistics centers that perform aircraft maintenance and modification. Here we concentrate on a single facility (hangar) which is equipped with several work stations (bays). Specifically, a number of jobs have already been scheduled for processing at the facility; the starting times, durations, and work station assignments for these jobs are assumed to be known. We are interested in how best to schedule a number of new jobs that the facility will be processing in the near future. We first develop a mixed integer quadratic programming model (MIQP) for this problem. Since the exact solution of this MIQP formulation is time consuming, we develop a heuristic procedure, based on existing bin packing techniques. This heuristic is further enhanced by application of certain local optimality conditions. PMID:27274921

Blubber and buoyancy: monitoring the body condition of free-ranging seals using simple dive characteristics.

PubMed

Biuw, Martin; McConnell, Bernie; Bradshaw, Corey J A; Burton, Harry; Fedak, Mike

2003-10-01

Elephant seals regularly perform dives during which they spend a large proportion of time drifting passively through the water column. The rate of vertical change in depth during these "drift" dives is largely a result of the proportion of lipid tissue in the body, with fatter seals having higher (more positive or less negative) drift rates compared with leaner seals. We examined the temporal changes in drift rates of 24 newly weaned southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) pups during their first trip to sea to determine if this easily recorded dive characteristic can be used to continuously monitor changes in body composition of seals throughout their foraging trips. All seals demonstrated a similar trend over time: drift rates were initially positive but decreased steadily over the first 30-50 days after departure (Phase 1), corresponding to seals becoming gradually less buoyant. Over the following approximately 100 days (Phase 2), drift rates again increased gradually, while during the last approximately 20-45 days (Phase 3) drift rates either remained constant or decreased slightly. The daily rate of change in drift rate was negatively related to the daily rate of horizontal displacement (daily travel rate), and daily travel rates of more than approximately 80 km were almost exclusively associated with negative changes in drift rate. We developed a mechanistic model based on body compositions and morphometrics measured in the field, published values for the density of seawater and various body components, and values of drag coefficients for objects of different shapes. We used this model to examine the theoretical relationships between drift rate and body composition and carried out a sensitivity analysis to quantify errors and biases caused by varying model parameters. While variations in seawater density and uncertainties in estimated body surface area and volume are unlikely to result in errors in estimated lipid content of more than +/-2.5%, variations in drag coefficient can lead to errors of >or =10%. Finally, we compared the lipid contents predicted by our model with the lipid contents measured using isotopically labelled water and found a strong positive correlation. The best-fitting model suggests that the drag coefficient of seals while drifting passively is between approximately 0.49 (roughly corresponding to a sphere-shaped object) and 0.69 (a prolate spheroid), and we were able to estimate relative lipid content to within approximately +/-2% lipid. Our results suggest that this simple method can be used to estimate the changes in lipid content of free-ranging seals while at sea and may help improve our understanding of the foraging strategies of these important marine predators.

Using tree diversity to compare phylogenetic heuristics.

PubMed

Sul, Seung-Jin; Matthews, Suzanne; Williams, Tiffani L

2009-04-29

Evolutionary trees are family trees that represent the relationships between a group of organisms. Phylogenetic heuristics are used to search stochastically for the best-scoring trees in tree space. Given that better tree scores are believed to be better approximations of the true phylogeny, traditional evaluation techniques have used tree scores to determine the heuristics that find the best scores in the fastest time. We develop new techniques to evaluate phylogenetic heuristics based on both tree scores and topologies to compare Pauprat and Rec-I-DCM3, two popular Maximum Parsimony search algorithms. Our results show that although Pauprat and Rec-I-DCM3 find the trees with the same best scores, topologically these trees are quite different. Furthermore, the Rec-I-DCM3 trees cluster distinctly from the Pauprat trees. In addition to our heatmap visualizations of using parsimony scores and the Robinson-Foulds distance to compare best-scoring trees found by the two heuristics, we also develop entropy-based methods to show the diversity of the trees found. Overall, Pauprat identifies more diverse trees than Rec-I-DCM3. Overall, our work shows that there is value to comparing heuristics beyond the parsimony scores that they find. Pauprat is a slower heuristic than Rec-I-DCM3. However, our work shows that there is tremendous value in using Pauprat to reconstruct trees-especially since it finds identical scoring but topologically distinct trees. Hence, instead of discounting Pauprat, effort should go in improving its implementation. Ultimately, improved performance measures lead to better phylogenetic heuristics and will result in better approximations of the true evolutionary history of the organisms of interest.

Psychological Plausibility of the Theory of Probabilistic Mental Models and the Fast and Frugal Heuristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Michael R.; Franco-Watkins, Ana M.; Thomas, Rick

2008-01-01

The theory of probabilistic mental models (PMM; G. Gigerenzer, U. Hoffrage, & H. Kleinbolting, 1991) has had a major influence on the field of judgment and decision making, with the most recent important modifications to PMM theory being the identification of several fast and frugal heuristics (G. Gigerenzer & D. G. Goldstein, 1996). These…

The Art of Snaring Dragons. Artificial Intelligence Memo Number 338. Revised.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, Harvey A.

Several models for problem solving are discussed, and the idea of a heuristic frame is developed. This concept provides a description of the evolution of problem-solving skills in terms of the growth of the number of algorithms available and increased sophistication in their use. The heuristic frame model is applied to two sets of physical…

Improving Critical Thinking Skills Using Learning Model Logan Avenue Problem Solving (LAPS)-Heuristic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anggrianto, Desi; Churiyah, Madziatul; Arief, Mohammad

2016-01-01

This research was conducted in order to know the effect of Logan Avenue Problem Solving (LAPS)-Heuristic learning model towards critical thinking skills of students of class X Office Administration (APK) in SMK Negeri 1 Ngawi, East Java, Indonesia on material curve and equilibrium of demand and supply, subject Introduction to Economics and…

Displacements Of Brownian Particles In Terms Of Marian Von Smoluchowski's Heuristic Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klein, Hermann; Woermann, Dietrich

2005-01-01

Albert Einstein's theory of the Brownian motion, Marian von Smoluchowski's heuristic model, and Perrin's experimental results helped to bring the concept of molecules from a state of being a useful hypothesis in chemistry to objects existing in reality. Central to the theory of Brownian motion is the relation between mean particle displacement and…

Ocean modelling aspects for drift applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephane, L.; Pierre, D.

2010-12-01

Nowadays, many authorities in charge of rescue-at-sea operations lean on operational oceanography products to outline research perimeters. Moreover, current fields estimated with sophisticated ocean forecasting systems can be used as input data for oil spill/ adrift object fate models. This emphasises the necessity of an accurate sea state forecast, with a mastered level of reliability. This work focuses on several problems inherent to drift modeling, dealing in the first place with the efficiency of the oceanic current field representation. As we want to discriminate the relevance of a particular physical process or modeling option, the idea is to generate series of current fields of different characteristics and then qualify them in term of drift prediction efficiency. Benchmarked drift scenarios were set up from real surface drifters data, collected in the Mediterranean sea and off the coasts of Angola. The time and space scales that we are interested in are about 72 hr forecasts (typical timescale communicated in case of crisis), for distance errors that we hope about a few dozen of km around the forecast (acceptable for reconnaissance by aircrafts) For the ocean prediction, we used some regional oceanic configurations based on the NEMO 2.3 code, nested into Mercator 1/12° operational system. Drift forecasts were computed offline with Mothy (Météo France oil spill modeling system) and Ariane (B. Blanke, 1997), a Lagrangian diagnostic tool. We were particularly interested in the importance of the horizontal resolution, vertical mixing schemes, and any processes that may impact the surface layer. The aim of the study is to ultimately point at the most suitable set of parameters for drift forecast use inside operational oceanic systems. We are also motivated in assessing the relevancy of ensemble forecasts regarding determinist predictions. Several tests showed that mis-described observed trajectories can finally be modelled statistically by using uncertainties over the initial position of the drifting material. Works in the near future will explore that concept with ensemble of currents obtained with different initial conditions, phase shifted boundary forcings or perturbed atmospheric surface forcings.

Microbial Communities Model Parameter Calculation for TSPA/SR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

D. Jolley

2001-07-16

This calculation has several purposes. First the calculation reduces the information contained in ''Committed Materials in Repository Drifts'' (BSC 2001a) to useable parameters required as input to MING V1.O (CRWMS M&O 1998, CSCI 30018 V1.O) for calculation of the effects of potential in-drift microbial communities as part of the microbial communities model. The calculation is intended to replace the parameters found in Attachment II of the current In-Drift Microbial Communities Model revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c) with the exception of Section 11-5.3. Second, this calculation provides the information necessary to supercede the following DTN: M09909SPAMING1.003 and replace it with a newmore » qualified dataset (see Table 6.2-1). The purpose of this calculation is to create the revised qualified parameter input for MING that will allow {Delta}G (Gibbs Free Energy) to be corrected for long-term changes to the temperature of the near-field environment. Calculated herein are the quadratic or second order regression relationships that are used in the energy limiting calculations to potential growth of microbial communities in the in-drift geochemical environment. Third, the calculation performs an impact review of a new DTN: M00012MAJIONIS.000 that is intended to replace the currently cited DTN: GS9809083 12322.008 for water chemistry data used in the current ''In-Drift Microbial Communities Model'' revision (CRWMS M&O 2000c). Finally, the calculation updates the material lifetimes reported on Table 32 in section 6.5.2.3 of the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000c) based on the inputs reported in BSC (2001a). Changes include adding new specified materials and updating old materials information that has changed.« less

Usability of a patient education and motivation tool using heuristic evaluation.

PubMed

Joshi, Ashish; Arora, Mohit; Dai, Liwei; Price, Kathleen; Vizer, Lisa; Sears, Andrew

2009-11-06

Computer-mediated educational applications can provide a self-paced, interactive environment to deliver educational content to individuals about their health condition. These programs have been used to deliver health-related information about a variety of topics, including breast cancer screening, asthma management, and injury prevention. We have designed the Patient Education and Motivation Tool (PEMT), an interactive computer-based educational program based on behavioral, cognitive, and humanistic learning theories. The tool is designed to educate users and has three key components: screening, learning, and evaluation. The objective of this tutorial is to illustrate a heuristic evaluation using a computer-based patient education program (PEMT) as a case study. The aims were to improve the usability of PEMT through heuristic evaluation of the interface; to report the results of these usability evaluations; to make changes based on the findings of the usability experts; and to describe the benefits and limitations of applying usability evaluations to PEMT. PEMT was evaluated by three usability experts using Nielsen's usability heuristics while reviewing the interface to produce a list of heuristic violations with severity ratings. The violations were sorted by heuristic and ordered from most to least severe within each heuristic. A total of 127 violations were identified with a median severity of 3 (range 0 to 4 with 0 = no problem to 4 = catastrophic problem). Results showed 13 violations for visibility (median severity = 2), 38 violations for match between system and real world (median severity = 2), 6 violations for user control and freedom (median severity = 3), 34 violations for consistency and standards (median severity = 2), 11 violations for error severity (median severity = 3), 1 violation for recognition and control (median severity = 3), 7 violations for flexibility and efficiency (median severity = 2), 9 violations for aesthetic and minimalist design (median severity = 2), 4 violations for help users recognize, diagnose, and recover from errors (median severity = 3), and 4 violations for help and documentation (median severity = 4). We describe the heuristic evaluation method employed to assess the usability of PEMT, a method which uncovers heuristic violations in the interface design in a quick and efficient manner. Bringing together usability experts and health professionals to evaluate a computer-mediated patient education program can help to identify problems in a timely manner. This makes this method particularly well suited to the iterative design process when developing other computer-mediated health education programs. Heuristic evaluations provided a means to assess the user interface of PEMT.

Usability of a Patient Education and Motivation Tool Using Heuristic Evaluation

PubMed Central

Arora, Mohit; Dai, Liwei; Price, Kathleen; Vizer, Lisa; Sears, Andrew

2009-01-01

Background Computer-mediated educational applications can provide a self-paced, interactive environment to deliver educational content to individuals about their health condition. These programs have been used to deliver health-related information about a variety of topics, including breast cancer screening, asthma management, and injury prevention. We have designed the Patient Education and Motivation Tool (PEMT), an interactive computer-based educational program based on behavioral, cognitive, and humanistic learning theories. The tool is designed to educate users and has three key components: screening, learning, and evaluation. Objective The objective of this tutorial is to illustrate a heuristic evaluation using a computer-based patient education program (PEMT) as a case study. The aims were to improve the usability of PEMT through heuristic evaluation of the interface; to report the results of these usability evaluations; to make changes based on the findings of the usability experts; and to describe the benefits and limitations of applying usability evaluations to PEMT. Methods PEMT was evaluated by three usability experts using Nielsen’s usability heuristics while reviewing the interface to produce a list of heuristic violations with severity ratings. The violations were sorted by heuristic and ordered from most to least severe within each heuristic. Results A total of 127 violations were identified with a median severity of 3 (range 0 to 4 with 0 = no problem to 4 = catastrophic problem). Results showed 13 violations for visibility (median severity = 2), 38 violations for match between system and real world (median severity = 2), 6 violations for user control and freedom (median severity = 3), 34 violations for consistency and standards (median severity = 2), 11 violations for error severity (median severity = 3), 1 violation for recognition and control (median severity = 3), 7 violations for flexibility and efficiency (median severity = 2), 9 violations for aesthetic and minimalist design (median severity = 2), 4 violations for help users recognize, diagnose, and recover from errors (median severity = 3), and 4 violations for help and documentation (median severity = 4). Conclusion We describe the heuristic evaluation method employed to assess the usability of PEMT, a method which uncovers heuristic violations in the interface design in a quick and efficient manner. Bringing together usability experts and health professionals to evaluate a computer-mediated patient education program can help to identify problems in a timely manner. This makes this method particularly well suited to the iterative design process when developing other computer-mediated health education programs. Heuristic evaluations provided a means to assess the user interface of PEMT. PMID:19897458

The Recognition Heuristic: A Review of Theory and Tests

PubMed Central

Pachur, Thorsten; Todd, Peter M.; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Schooler, Lael J.; Goldstein, Daniel G.

2011-01-01

The recognition heuristic is a prime example of how, by exploiting a match between mind and environment, a simple mental strategy can lead to efficient decision making. The proposal of the heuristic initiated a debate about the processes underlying the use of recognition in decision making. We review research addressing four key aspects of the recognition heuristic: (a) that recognition is often an ecologically valid cue; (b) that people often follow recognition when making inferences; (c) that recognition supersedes further cue knowledge; (d) that its use can produce the less-is-more effect – the phenomenon that lesser states of recognition knowledge can lead to more accurate inferences than more complete states. After we contrast the recognition heuristic to other related concepts, including availability and fluency, we carve out, from the existing findings, some boundary conditions of the use of the recognition heuristic as well as key questions for future research. Moreover, we summarize developments concerning the connection of the recognition heuristic with memory models. We suggest that the recognition heuristic is used adaptively and that, compared to other cues, recognition seems to have a special status in decision making. Finally, we discuss how systematic ignorance is exploited in other cognitive mechanisms (e.g., estimation and preference). PMID:21779266

Nonlinear ELM simulations based on a nonideal peeling–ballooning model using the BOUT++ code

DOE PAGES

Xu, X. Q.; Dudson, B. D.; Snyder, P. B.; ...

2011-09-23

A minimum set of equations based on the peeling–ballooning (P–B) model with nonideal physics effects (diamagnetic drift, E × B drift, resistivity and anomalous electron viscosity) is found to simulate pedestal collapse when using the BOUT++ simulation code, developed in part from the original fluid edge code BOUT. Linear simulations of P–B modes find good agreement in growth rate and mode structure with ELITE calculations. The influence of the E × B drift, diamagnetic drift, resistivity, anomalous electron viscosity, ion viscosity and parallel thermal diffusivity on P–B modes is being studied; we find that (1) the diamagnetic drift and Emore » × B drift stabilize the P–B mode in a manner consistent with theoretical expectations; (2) resistivity destabilizes the P–B mode, leading to resistive P–B mode; (3) anomalous electron and parallel ion viscosities destabilize the P–B mode, leading to a viscous P–B mode; (4) perpendicular ion viscosity and parallel thermal diffusivity stabilize the P–B mode. With addition of the anomalous electron viscosity under the assumption that the anomalous kinematic electron viscosity is comparable to the anomalous electron perpendicular thermal diffusivity, or the Prandtl number is close to unity, it is found from nonlinear simulations using a realistic high Lundquist number that the pedestal collapse is limited to the edge region and the ELM size is about 5–10% of the pedestal stored energy. Furthermore, this is consistent with many observations of large ELMs. The estimated island size is consistent with the size of fast pedestal pressure collapse. In the stable α-zones of ideal P–B modes, nonlinear simulations of viscous ballooning modes or current-diffusive ballooning mode (CDBM) for ITER H-mode scenarios are presented.« less

Spatial variations in mortality in pelagic early life stages of a marine fish (Gadus morhua)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langangen, Øystein; Stige, Leif C.; Yaragina, Natalia A.; Ottersen, Geir; Vikebø, Frode B.; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2014-09-01

Mortality of pelagic eggs and larvae of marine fish is often assumed to be constant both in space and time due to lacking information. This may, however, be a gross oversimplification, as early life stages are likely to experience large variations in mortality both in time and space. In this paper we develop a method for estimating the spatial variability in mortality of eggs and larvae. The method relies on survey data and physical-biological particle-drift models to predict the drift of ichthyoplankton. Furthermore, the method was used to estimate the spatially resolved mortality field in the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua). We analyzed data from the Barents Sea for the period between 1959 and 1993 when there are two surveys available: a spring and a summer survey. An individual-based physical-biological particle-drift model, tailored to the egg and larval stages of Barents Sea cod, was used to predict the drift trajectories from the observed stage-specific distributions in spring to the time of observation in the summer, a drift time of approximately 45 days. We interpreted the spatial patterns in the differences between the predicted and observed abundance distributions in summer as reflecting the spatial patterns in mortality over the drift period. Using the estimated mortality fields, we show that the spatial variations in mortality might have a significant impact on survival to later life stages and we suggest that there may be trade-offs between increased early survival in off shore regions and reduced probability of ending up in the favorable nursing grounds in the Barents Sea. In addition, we show that accounting for the estimated mortality field, improves the correlation between a simulated recruitment index and observation-based indices of juvenile abundance.

Design and usability of heuristic‐based deliberation tools for women facing amniocentesis

PubMed Central

Durand, Marie‐Anne; Wegwarth, Odette; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2011-01-01

Abstract Background  Evidence suggests that in decision contexts characterized by uncertainty and time constraints (e.g. health‐care decisions), fast and frugal decision‐making strategies (heuristics) may perform better than complex rules of reasoning. Objective  To examine whether it is possible to design deliberation components in decision support interventions using simple models (fast and frugal heuristics). Design  The ‘Take The Best’ heuristic (i.e. selection of a ‘most important reason’) and ‘The Tallying’ integration algorithm (i.e. unitary weighing of pros and cons) were used to develop two deliberation components embedded in a Web‐based decision support intervention for women facing amniocentesis testing. Ten researchers (recruited from 15), nine health‐care providers (recruited from 28) and ten pregnant women (recruited from 14) who had recently been offered amniocentesis testing appraised evolving versions of ‘your most important reason’ (Take The Best) and ‘weighing it up’ (Tallying). Results  Most researchers found the tools useful in facilitating decision making although emphasized the need for simple instructions and clear layouts. Health‐care providers however expressed concerns regarding the usability and clarity of the tools. By contrast, 7 out of 10 pregnant women found the tools useful in weighing up the pros and cons of each option, helpful in structuring and clarifying their thoughts and visualizing their decision efforts. Several pregnant women felt that ‘weighing it up’ and ‘your most important reason’ were not appropriate when facing such a difficult and emotional decision. Conclusion  Theoretical approaches based on fast and frugal heuristics can be used to develop deliberation tools that provide helpful support to patients facing real‐world decisions about amniocentesis. PMID:21241434

A dynamic multiarmed bandit-gene expression programming hyper-heuristic for combinatorial optimization problems.

PubMed

Sabar, Nasser R; Ayob, Masri; Kendall, Graham; Qu, Rong

2015-02-01

Hyper-heuristics are search methodologies that aim to provide high-quality solutions across a wide variety of problem domains, rather than developing tailor-made methodologies for each problem instance/domain. A traditional hyper-heuristic framework has two levels, namely, the high level strategy (heuristic selection mechanism and the acceptance criterion) and low level heuristics (a set of problem specific heuristics). Due to the different landscape structures of different problem instances, the high level strategy plays an important role in the design of a hyper-heuristic framework. In this paper, we propose a new high level strategy for a hyper-heuristic framework. The proposed high-level strategy utilizes a dynamic multiarmed bandit-extreme value-based reward as an online heuristic selection mechanism to select the appropriate heuristic to be applied at each iteration. In addition, we propose a gene expression programming framework to automatically generate the acceptance criterion for each problem instance, instead of using human-designed criteria. Two well-known, and very different, combinatorial optimization problems, one static (exam timetabling) and one dynamic (dynamic vehicle routing) are used to demonstrate the generality of the proposed framework. Compared with state-of-the-art hyper-heuristics and other bespoke methods, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed framework is able to generalize well across both domains. We obtain competitive, if not better results, when compared to the best known results obtained from other methods that have been presented in the scientific literature. We also compare our approach against the recently released hyper-heuristic competition test suite. We again demonstrate the generality of our approach when we compare against other methods that have utilized the same six benchmark datasets from this test suite.

IN SITU FIELD TESTING OF PROCESSES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J.S.Y. YANG

2004-11-08

The purpose of this scientific analysis report is to update and document the data and subsequent analyses from ambient field-testing activities performed in underground drifts and surface-based boreholes through unsaturated zone (UZ) tuff rock units. In situ testing, monitoring, and associated laboratory studies are conducted to directly assess and evaluate the waste emplacement environment and the natural barriers to radionuclide transport at Yucca Mountain. This scientific analysis report supports and provides data to UZ flow and transport model reports, which in turn contribute to the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) of Yucca Mountain, an important document for the license applicationmore » (LA). The objectives of ambient field-testing activities are described in Section 1.1. This report is the third revision (REV 03), which supercedes REV 02. The scientific analysis of data for inputs to model calibration and validation as documented in REV 02 were developed in accordance with the Technical Work Plan (TWP) ''Technical Work Plan for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167969]). This revision was developed in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654], Section 1.2.4) for better integrated, consistent, transparent, traceable, and more complete documentation in this scientific analysis report and associated UZ flow and transport model reports. No additional testing or analyses were performed as part of this revision. The list of relevant acceptance criteria is provided by ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654]), Table 3-1. Additional deviations from the TWP regarding the features, events, and processes (FEPs) list are discussed in Section 1.3. Documentation in this report includes descriptions of how, and under what conditions, the tests were conducted. The descriptions and analyses provide data useful for refining and confirming the understanding of flow, drift seepage, and transport processes in the UZ. The UZ testing activities included measurement of permeability distribution, quantification of the seepage of water into the drifts, evaluation of fracture-matrix interaction, study of flow along faults, testing of flow and transport between drifts, characterization of hydrologic heterogeneity along drifts, estimation of drying effects on the rock surrounding the drifts due to ventilation, monitoring of moisture conditions in open and sealed drifts, and determination of the degree of minimum construction water migration below drift. These field tests were conducted in two underground drifts at Yucca Mountain, the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) drift, and the cross-drift for Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block (ECRB), as described in Section 1.2. Samples collected in boreholes and underground drifts have been used for additional hydrochemical and isotopic analyses for additional understanding of the UZ setting. The UZ transport tests conducted at the nearby Busted Butte site (see Figure 1-4) are also described in this scientific analysis report.« less

Received response based heuristic LDPC code for short-range non-line-of-sight ultraviolet communication.

PubMed

Qin, Heng; Zuo, Yong; Zhang, Dong; Li, Yinghui; Wu, Jian

2017-03-06

Through slight modification on typical photon multiplier tube (PMT) receiver output statistics, a generalized received response model considering both scattered propagation and random detection is presented to investigate the impact of inter-symbol interference (ISI) on link data rate of short-range non-line-of-sight (NLOS) ultraviolet communication. Good agreement with the experimental results by numerical simulation is shown. Based on the received response characteristics, a heuristic check matrix construction algorithm of low-density-parity-check (LDPC) code is further proposed to approach the data rate bound derived in a delayed sampling (DS) binary pulse position modulation (PPM) system. Compared to conventional LDPC coding methods, better bit error ratio (BER) below 1E-05 is achieved for short-range NLOS UVC systems operating at data rate of 2Mbps.

Outbreak Column 16: Cognitive errors in outbreak decision making.

PubMed

Curran, Evonne T

2015-01-01

During outbreaks, decisions must be made without all the required information. People, including infection prevention and control teams (IPCTs), who have to make decisions during uncertainty use heuristics to fill the missing data gaps. Heuristics are mental model short cuts that by-and-large enable us to make good decisions quickly. However, these heuristics contain biases and effects that at times lead to cognitive (thinking) errors. These cognitive errors are not made to deliberately misrepresent any given situation; we are subject to heuristic biases when we are trying to perform optimally. The science of decision making is large; there are over 100 different biases recognised and described. Outbreak Column 16 discusses and relates these heuristics and biases to decision making during outbreak prevention, preparedness and management. Insights as to how we might recognise and avoid them are offered.

Plying Your Craft: Instructional Development and the Use of Heuristics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noel, Kent L.; Hewlett, Brent

1981-01-01

Examines an instructional systems design (ISD) model used by Bell Laboratories as an illustration of how heuristics can be brought to bear upon the design and development of instructional materials. Ten references are listed. (Author/MER)

June Solstice Equatorial Spread F in the American Sector: A Numerical Assessment of Linear Stability Aided by Incoherent Scatter Radar Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Weijia; S. Rodrigues, Fabiano

2018-01-01

Previous studies have suggested that weakening downward plasma drifts can produce favorable conditions for the ionospheric Generalized Rayleigh-Taylor (GRT) instability and explain the occurrence of postmidnight equatorial spread F (ESF). We evaluated this hypothesis using numerical simulations aided by measurements and attempted to explain ESF events observed in the American sector during June solstice, low solar flux conditions. We analyzed plasma drifts and ESF measurements made by the incoherent scatter radar of the Jicamarca Radio Observatory (11.95° S, 76.87° W, ˜1° dip). We found adequate measurements during a prototypical, quiet time event on 4-5 June 2008 when the downward drifts weakened and a fully developed ESF appeared. The measured drifts were used as input for the SAMI2 model. SAMI2 reproduced an "apparent" uplift of the ionosphere based on h'F measurements that was consistent with expectations and observations. SAMI2 also provided parameters for estimation of the flux tube linear growth rates of GRT instability associated with the weakening drift event. We found that the weakening drifts did produce unstable conditions with positive growth rates. The growth rates, however, were slower than those obtained for typical, premidnight ESF events and those obtained for similar drift conditions in other longitude sectors. We show, however, that departures in the wind pattern, from climatological model predictions, can produce favorable conditions for instability development. Following the hypothesis of Huba and Krall (2013) and using SAMI2 simulations, we show that equatorward winds, when combined with weakening drifts, could have contributed to the unstable conditions responsible for the postmidnight ESF events.

Self-Consistent Drift-Diffusion Transport in Thermoelectrics and Implications for Measuring the Scattering Parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santhanam, Parthiban; Ram, Rajeev J.

2010-09-01

We present a microscopic model of the Seebeck effect based on a generalized drift-diffusion equation and use it to predict a simple relationship between the electric field within an operating thermoelectric and the scattering parameter. Our model replicates existing theoretical results and permits an intuitive spatial picture of the Seebeck effect. A similar formalism was independently developed by Cai and Mahan, but this work includes numerical results for high dopant concentrations where the thermoelectric power factor is maximized. Based on these results, we propose that measurement of the bulk electric field should constitute a measurement of the scattering parameter, the improvement of which could lead to greater thermoelectric efficiency.

Detection of Yarkovsky acceleration in the context of precovery observations and the future Gaia catalogue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desmars, J.

2015-03-01

Context. The Yarkovsky effect is a weak non-gravitational force leading to a small variation of the semi-major axis of an asteroid. Using radar measurements and astrometric observations, it is possible to measure a drift in semi-major axis through orbit determination. Aims: This paper aims to detect a reliable drift in semi-major axis of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) from ground-based observations and to investigate the impact of precovery observations and the future Gaia catalogue in the detection of a secular drift in semi-major axis. Methods: We have developed a precise dynamical model of an asteroid's motion taking the Yarkovsky acceleration into account and allowing the fitting of the drift in semi-major axis. Using statistical methods, we investigate the quality and the robustness of the detection. Results: By filtering spurious detections with an estimated maximum drift depending on the asteroid's size, we found 46 NEAs with a reliable drift in semi-major axis in good agreement with the previous studies. The measure of the drift leads to a better orbit determination and constrains some physical parameters of these objects. Our results are in good agreement with the 1 /D dependence of the drift and with the expected ratio of prograde and retrograde NEAs. We show that the uncertainty of the drift mainly depends on the length of orbital arc and in this way we highlight the importance of the precovery observations and data mining in the detection of consistent drift. Finally, we discuss the impact of Gaia catalogue in the determination of drift in semi-major axis.

Influence of flow regime and channel morphology on larval drift and dispersion in a large regulated river

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erwin, S.; Jacobson, R. B.

2013-12-01

Larval drift is a critical phase of ontogenetic development for many species of lotic fishes. Downstream advection and dispersion of passively drifting larvae or eggs is controlled by the complex interaction of flow regime, channel planform, local channel morphology, and the resulting hydraulic gradients. In many regulated rivers, channel engineering and perturbations to the flow regime may disrupt natural drift processes and impact successful recruitment of native fishes. Here we explore the influence of flow regime and channel morphology on the downstream transport, dispersion, and retention of Pallid Sturgeon larvae, an endangered species endemic to the Mississippi River basin and the focus of significant conservation effort on the Missouri River. The transition from drifting free embryo to exogenously feeding larvae has been identified as a potential life stage bottleneck for the Pallid Sturgeon. Previous studies have indicated that river regulation and fragmentation may contribute to mortality of larval Pallid Sturgeon by reducing the extent of free-flowing river required by free embryos to complete the transition to exogenous feeding. Additionally, channelization may have increased the rate at which larvae are advected downstream out of the Missouri River basin. We describe the complex interactions and influence of morphologic and hydraulic factors on larval drift using an extensive library of hydroacoustic data collected along more than 1300 km of the Lower Missouri River. We use a one-dimensional advection-dispersion model to estimate total drift distance and employ the longitudinal dispersion coefficient as a measure to quantify the tendency towards dispersion or retention of passively drifting larvae in geomorphically distinct segments of river. We use a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to evaluate the sensitivity of drift and dispersion to in-channel navigation structures and flood hydrology. Based on insights gained from the analysis of field data and modeling outputs, we interpret the effects of different styles of channel morphology on larval dispersion and consider the implications of flow regime modifications or channel re-engineering on the distribution and retention of free embryos within the Lower Missouri River.

Modeling the Magnetopause Shadowing and Drift Orbit Bifurcation Loss during the June 2015 Dropout Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Cunningham, G.

2017-12-01

The relativistic electron flux in Earth's radiation belt are observed to drop by orders of magnitude on timescale of a few hours. Where do the electrons go during the dropout? This is one of the most important outstanding questions in radiation belt studies. Here we will study the 22 June 2015 dropout event which occurred during one of the largest geomagnetic storms in the last decade. A sudden and nearly complete loss of all the outer zone relativistic and ultra-relativistic electrons were observed after a strong interplanetary shock. The Last Closed Drift Shell (LCDS) calculated using the TS04 model reached as low as L*=3.7 during the shock and stay below L*=4 for 1 hour. The unusually low LCDS values suggest that magnetopause shadowing and the associated outward radial diffusion can contribute significantly to the observed dropout. In addition, Drift Orbit Bifurcation (DOB) has been suggested as an important loss mechanism for radiation belt electrons, especially when the solar wind dynamic pressure is high, but its relative importance has not been quantified. Here, we will model the June 2015 dropout event using a radial diffusion model that includes physical and event-specific inputs. First, we will trace electron drift shells based on TS04 model to identify the LCDS and bifurcation regions as a function of the 2nd adiabatic invariant (K) and time. To model magnetopause shadowing, electron lifetimes in our model will be set to electron drift periods at L*>LCDS. Electron lifetimes inside the bifurcation region have been estimated by Ukhorskiy et al. [JGR 2011, doi:10.1029/2011JA016623] as a function of L* and K, which will also be implemented in the model. This will be the first effort to include the DOB loss in a comprehensive radiation belt model. Furthermore, to realistically simulate outward radial diffusion, the new radial diffusion coefficients that are calculated based on the realistic TS04 model and include physical K dependence [Cunningham, JGR 2016, doi:10.1002/2015JA021981] will be achieved and included here. With these event-specific and physical model inputs, we will test how well the observed fast dropout during the June 2015 event can be reproduced by our model, and quantify the relative contribution of magnetopause shadowing, outward radial diffusion, and DOB to the fast electron depletion.

The initial value problem in Lagrangian drift kinetic theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burby, J. W.

2016-06-01

> Existing high-order variational drift kinetic theories contain unphysical rapidly varying modes that are not seen at low orders. These unphysical modes, which may be rapidly oscillating, damped or growing, are ushered in by a failure of conventional high-order drift kinetic theory to preserve the structure of its parent model's initial value problem. In short, the (infinite dimensional) system phase space is unphysically enlarged in conventional high-order variational drift kinetic theory. I present an alternative, `renormalized' variational approach to drift kinetic theory that manifestly respects the parent model's initial value problem. The basic philosophy underlying this alternate approach is that high-order drift kinetic theory ought to be derived by truncating the all-orders system phase-space Lagrangian instead of the usual `field particle' Lagrangian. For the sake of clarity, this story is told first through the lens of a finite-dimensional toy model of high-order variational drift kinetics; the analogous full-on drift kinetic story is discussed subsequently. The renormalized drift kinetic system, while variational and just as formally accurate as conventional formulations, does not support the troublesome rapidly varying modes.

What Is behind the Priority Heuristic? A Mathematical Analysis and Comment on Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig (2006)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rieger, Marc Oliver; Wang, Mei

2008-01-01

Comments on the article by E. Brandstatter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006). The authors discuss the priority heuristic, a recent model for decisions under risk. They reanalyze the experimental validity of this approach and discuss how these results compare with cumulative prospect theory, the currently most established model in behavioral…

Fluent, Fast, and Frugal? A Formal Model Evaluation of the Interplay between Memory, Fluency, and Comparative Judgments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Erdfelder, Edgar; Pohl, Rudiger F.

2011-01-01

A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency--that is, the speed with which objects are recognized--will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has…

The Role of Source Confusion in Cultivation Effects May Depend on Processing Strategy: A Comment on Mares (1996).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shrum, L. J.

1997-01-01

States M.L. Mares presents evidence that source confusions play a role in the cultivation effect. Clarifies some of Mares' findings that have implications for the heuristic model of cultivation effects and shows that Mares' findings are compatible with and can be integrated into the heuristic processing model. Discusses implications of Mares'…

A Comparison of Two Mathematics Problem-Solving Strategies: Facilitate Algebra-Readiness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xin, Yan Ping; Zhang, Dake; Park, Joo Young; Tom, Kinsey; Whipple, Amanda; Si, Luo

2011-01-01

The authors compared a conceptual model-based problem-solving (COMPS) approach with a general heuristic instructional approach for teaching multiplication-division word-problem solving to elementary students with learning problems (LP). The results indicate that only the COMPS group significantly improved, from pretests to posttests, their…

Cognitive niches: an ecological model of strategy selection.

PubMed

Marewski, Julian N; Schooler, Lael J

2011-07-01

How do people select among different strategies to accomplish a given task? Across disciplines, the strategy selection problem represents a major challenge. We propose a quantitative model that predicts how selection emerges through the interplay among strategies, cognitive capacities, and the environment. This interplay carves out for each strategy a cognitive niche, that is, a limited number of situations in which the strategy can be applied, simplifying strategy selection. To illustrate our proposal, we consider selection in the context of 2 theories: the simple heuristics framework and the ACT-R (adaptive control of thought-rational) architecture of cognition. From the heuristics framework, we adopt the thesis that people make decisions by selecting from a repertoire of simple decision strategies that exploit regularities in the environment and draw on cognitive capacities, such as memory and time perception. ACT-R provides a quantitative theory of how these capacities adapt to the environment. In 14 simulations and 10 experiments, we consider the choice between strategies that operate on the accessibility of memories and those that depend on elaborate knowledge about the world. Based on Internet statistics, our model quantitatively predicts people's familiarity with and knowledge of real-world objects, the distributional characteristics of the associated speed of memory retrieval, and the cognitive niches of classic decision strategies, including those of the fluency, recognition, integration, lexicographic, and sequential-sampling heuristics. In doing so, the model specifies when people will be able to apply different strategies and how accurate, fast, and effortless people's decisions will be.

Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Dixon

2004-04-26

The conceptual and predictive models documented in this Engineered Barrier System: Physical and Chemical Environment Model report describe the evolution of the physical and chemical conditions within the waste emplacement drifts of the repository. The modeling approaches and model output data will be used in the total system performance assessment (TSPA-LA) to assess the performance of the engineered barrier system and the waste form. These models evaluate the range of potential water compositions within the emplacement drifts, resulting from the interaction of introduced materials and minerals in dust with water seeping into the drifts and with aqueous solutions forming bymore » deliquescence of dust (as influenced by atmospheric conditions), and from thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) processes in the drift. These models also consider the uncertainty and variability in water chemistry inside the drift and the compositions of introduced materials within the drift. This report develops and documents a set of process- and abstraction-level models that constitute the engineered barrier system: physical and chemical environment model. Where possible, these models use information directly from other process model reports as input, which promotes integration among process models used for total system performance assessment. Specific tasks and activities of modeling the physical and chemical environment are included in the technical work plan ''Technical Work Plan for: In-Drift Geochemistry Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 166519]). As described in the technical work plan, the development of this report is coordinated with the development of other engineered barrier system analysis model reports.« less

Family practitioners' diagnostic decision-making processes regarding patients with respiratory tract infections: an observational study.

PubMed

Fischer, Thomas; Fischer, Susanne; Himmel, Wolfgang; Kochen, Michael M; Hummers-Pradier, Eva

2008-01-01

The influence of patient characteristics on family practitioners' (FPs') diagnostic decision making has mainly been investigated using indirect methods such as vignettes or questionnaires. Direct observation-borrowed from social and cultural anthropology-may be an alternative method for describing FPs' real-life behavior and may help in gaining insight into how FPs diagnose respiratory tract infections, which are frequent in primary care. To clarify FPs' diagnostic processes when treating patients suffering from symptoms of respiratory tract infection. This direct observation study was performed in 30 family practices using a checklist for patient complaints, history taking, physical examination, and diagnoses. The influence of patients' symptoms and complaints on the FPs' physical examination and diagnosis was calculated by logistic regression analyses. Dummy variables based on combinations of symptoms and complaints were constructed and tested against saturated (full) and backward regression models. In total, 273 patients (median age 37 years, 51% women) were included. The median number of symptoms described was 4 per patient, and most information was provided at the patients' own initiative. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed a strong association between patients' complaints and the physical examination. Frequent diagnoses were upper respiratory tract infection (URTI)/common cold (43%), bronchitis (26%), sinusitis (12%), and tonsillitis (11%). There were no significant statistical differences between "simple heuristic'' models and saturated regression models in the diagnoses of bronchitis, sinusitis, and tonsillitis, indicating that simple heuristics are probably used by the FPs, whereas "URTI/common cold'' was better explained by the full model. FPs tended to make their diagnosis based on a few patient symptoms and a limited physical examination. Simple heuristic models were almost as powerful in explaining most diagnoses as saturated models. Direct observation allowed for the study of decision making under real conditions, yielding both quantitative data and "qualitative'' information about the FPs' performance. It is important for investigators to be aware of the specific disadvantages of the method (e.g., a possible observer effect).

Model Error Budgets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Hugh C.

2008-01-01

An error budget is a commonly used tool in design of complex aerospace systems. It represents system performance requirements in terms of allowable errors and flows these down through a hierarchical structure to lower assemblies and components. The requirements may simply be 'allocated' based upon heuristics or experience, or they may be designed through use of physics-based models. This paper presents a basis for developing an error budget for models of the system, as opposed to the system itself. The need for model error budgets arises when system models are a principle design agent as is increasingly more common for poorly testable high performance space systems.

A hop count based heuristic routing protocol for mobile delay tolerant networks.

PubMed

You, Lei; Li, Jianbo; Wei, Changjiang; Dai, Chenqu; Xu, Jixing; Hu, Lejuan

2014-01-01

Routing in delay tolerant networks (DTNs) is a challenge since it must handle network partitioning, long delays, and dynamic topology. Meanwhile, routing protocols of the traditional mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) cannot work well due to the failure of its assumption that most network connections are available. In this paper, we propose a hop count based heuristic routing protocol by utilizing the information carried by the peripatetic packets in the network. A heuristic function is defined to help in making the routing decision. We formally define a custom operation for square matrices so as to transform the heuristic value calculation into matrix manipulation. Finally, the performance of our proposed algorithm is evaluated by the simulation results, which show the advantage of such self-adaptive routing protocol in the diverse circumstance of DTNs.

A Hop Count Based Heuristic Routing Protocol for Mobile Delay Tolerant Networks

PubMed Central

Wei, Changjiang; Dai, Chenqu; Xu, Jixing; Hu, Lejuan

2014-01-01

Routing in delay tolerant networks (DTNs) is a challenge since it must handle network partitioning, long delays, and dynamic topology. Meanwhile, routing protocols of the traditional mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs) cannot work well due to the failure of its assumption that most network connections are available. In this paper, we propose a hop count based heuristic routing protocol by utilizing the information carried by the peripatetic packets in the network. A heuristic function is defined to help in making the routing decision. We formally define a custom operation for square matrices so as to transform the heuristic value calculation into matrix manipulation. Finally, the performance of our proposed algorithm is evaluated by the simulation results, which show the advantage of such self-adaptive routing protocol in the diverse circumstance of DTNs. PMID:25110736

Impact of heuristics in clustering large biological networks.

PubMed

Shafin, Md Kishwar; Kabir, Kazi Lutful; Ridwan, Iffatur; Anannya, Tasmiah Tamzid; Karim, Rashid Saadman; Hoque, Mohammad Mozammel; Rahman, M Sohel

2015-12-01

Traditional clustering algorithms often exhibit poor performance for large networks. On the contrary, greedy algorithms are found to be relatively efficient while uncovering functional modules from large biological networks. The quality of the clusters produced by these greedy techniques largely depends on the underlying heuristics employed. Different heuristics based on different attributes and properties perform differently in terms of the quality of the clusters produced. This motivates us to design new heuristics for clustering large networks. In this paper, we have proposed two new heuristics and analyzed the performance thereof after incorporating those with three different combinations in a recently celebrated greedy clustering algorithm named SPICi. We have extensively analyzed the effectiveness of these new variants. The results are found to be promising. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Case finding in early prevention networks - a heuristic for ambulatory care settings].

PubMed

Barth, Michael; Belzer, Florian

2016-06-01

One goal of early prevention is the support of families with small children up to three years who are exposed to psychosocial risks. The identification of these cases is often complex and not well-directed, especially in the ambulatory care setting. Development of a model of a feasible and empirical based strategy for case finding in ambulatory care. Based on the risk factors of postpartal depression, lack of maternal responsiveness, parental stress with regulation disorders and poverty a lexicographic and non-compensatory heuristic model with simple decision rules, will be constructed and empirically tested. Therefore the original data set from an evaluation of the pediatric documentary form on psychosocial issues of families with small children in well-child visits will be used and reanalyzed. The first diagnostic step in the non-compensatory and hierarchical classification process is the assessment of postpartal depression followed by maternal responsiveness, parental stress and poverty. The classification model identifies 89.0 % cases from the original study. Compared to the original study the decision process becomes clearer and more concise. The evidence-based and data-driven model exemplifies a strategy for the assessment of psychosocial risk factors in ambulatory care settings. It is based on four evidence-based risk factors and offers a quick and reliable classification. A further advantage of this model is that after a risk factor is identified the diagnostic procedure will be stopped and the counselling process can commence. For further validation of the model studies, in well suited early prevention networks are needed.

Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

PubMed Central

Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

2015-01-01

Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

A new Nawaz-Enscore-Ham-based heuristic for permutation flow-shop problems with bicriteria of makespan and machine idle time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Weibo; Jin, Yan; Price, Mark

2016-10-01

A new heuristic based on the Nawaz-Enscore-Ham algorithm is proposed in this article for solving a permutation flow-shop scheduling problem. A new priority rule is proposed by accounting for the average, mean absolute deviation, skewness and kurtosis, in order to fully describe the distribution style of processing times. A new tie-breaking rule is also introduced for achieving effective job insertion with the objective of minimizing both makespan and machine idle time. Statistical tests illustrate better solution quality of the proposed algorithm compared to existing benchmark heuristics.

PathEdEx – Uncovering High-explanatory Visual Diagnostics Heuristics Using Digital Pathology and Multiscale Gaze Data

PubMed Central

Shin, Dmitriy; Kovalenko, Mikhail; Ersoy, Ilker; Li, Yu; Doll, Donald; Shyu, Chi-Ren; Hammer, Richard

2017-01-01

Background: Visual heuristics of pathology diagnosis is a largely unexplored area where reported studies only provided a qualitative insight into the subject. Uncovering and quantifying pathology visual and nonvisual diagnostic patterns have great potential to improve clinical outcomes and avoid diagnostic pitfalls. Methods: Here, we present PathEdEx, an informatics computational framework that incorporates whole-slide digital pathology imaging with multiscale gaze-tracking technology to create web-based interactive pathology educational atlases and to datamine visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics. Results: We demonstrate the capabilities of PathEdEx for mining visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics using the first PathEdEx volume of a hematopathology atlas. We conducted a quantitative study on the time dynamics of zooming and panning operations utilized by experts and novices to come to the correct diagnosis. We then performed association rule mining to determine sets of diagnostic factors that consistently result in a correct diagnosis, and studied differences in diagnostic strategies across different levels of pathology expertise using Markov chain (MC) modeling and MC Monte Carlo simulations. To perform these studies, we translated raw gaze points to high-explanatory semantic labels that represent pathology diagnostic clues. Therefore, the outcome of these studies is readily transformed into narrative descriptors for direct use in pathology education and practice. Conclusion: PathEdEx framework can be used to capture best practices of pathology visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics that can be passed over to the next generation of pathologists and have potential to streamline implementation of precision diagnostics in precision medicine settings. PMID:28828200

PathEdEx - Uncovering High-explanatory Visual Diagnostics Heuristics Using Digital Pathology and Multiscale Gaze Data.

PubMed

Shin, Dmitriy; Kovalenko, Mikhail; Ersoy, Ilker; Li, Yu; Doll, Donald; Shyu, Chi-Ren; Hammer, Richard

2017-01-01

Visual heuristics of pathology diagnosis is a largely unexplored area where reported studies only provided a qualitative insight into the subject. Uncovering and quantifying pathology visual and nonvisual diagnostic patterns have great potential to improve clinical outcomes and avoid diagnostic pitfalls. Here, we present PathEdEx, an informatics computational framework that incorporates whole-slide digital pathology imaging with multiscale gaze-tracking technology to create web-based interactive pathology educational atlases and to datamine visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics. We demonstrate the capabilities of PathEdEx for mining visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics using the first PathEdEx volume of a hematopathology atlas. We conducted a quantitative study on the time dynamics of zooming and panning operations utilized by experts and novices to come to the correct diagnosis. We then performed association rule mining to determine sets of diagnostic factors that consistently result in a correct diagnosis, and studied differences in diagnostic strategies across different levels of pathology expertise using Markov chain (MC) modeling and MC Monte Carlo simulations. To perform these studies, we translated raw gaze points to high-explanatory semantic labels that represent pathology diagnostic clues. Therefore, the outcome of these studies is readily transformed into narrative descriptors for direct use in pathology education and practice. PathEdEx framework can be used to capture best practices of pathology visual and nonvisual diagnostic heuristics that can be passed over to the next generation of pathologists and have potential to streamline implementation of precision diagnostics in precision medicine settings.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health.

PubMed

Fock, Heino O; Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems.

From Metaphors to Formalism: A Heuristic Approach to Holistic Assessments of Ecosystem Health

PubMed Central

Kraus, Gerd

2016-01-01

Environmental policies employ metaphoric objectives such as ecosystem health, resilience and sustainable provision of ecosystem services, which influence corresponding sustainability assessments by means of normative settings such as assumptions on system description, indicator selection, aggregation of information and target setting. A heuristic approach is developed for sustainability assessments to avoid ambiguity and applications to the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and OSPAR assessments are presented. For MSFD, nineteen different assessment procedures have been proposed, but at present no agreed assessment procedure is available. The heuristic assessment framework is a functional-holistic approach comprising an ex-ante/ex-post assessment framework with specifically defined normative and systemic dimensions (EAEPNS). The outer normative dimension defines the ex-ante/ex-post framework, of which the latter branch delivers one measure of ecosystem health based on indicators and the former allows to account for the multi-dimensional nature of sustainability (social, economic, ecological) in terms of modeling approaches. For MSFD, the ex-ante/ex-post framework replaces the current distinction between assessments based on pressure and state descriptors. The ex-ante and the ex-post branch each comprise an inner normative and a systemic dimension. The inner normative dimension in the ex-post branch considers additive utility models and likelihood functions to standardize variables normalized with Bayesian modeling. Likelihood functions allow precautionary target setting. The ex-post systemic dimension considers a posteriori indicator selection by means of analysis of indicator space to avoid redundant indicator information as opposed to a priori indicator selection in deconstructive-structural approaches. Indicator information is expressed in terms of ecosystem variability by means of multivariate analysis procedures. The application to the OSPAR assessment for the southern North Sea showed, that with the selected 36 indicators 48% of ecosystem variability could be explained. Tools for the ex-ante branch are risk and ecosystem models with the capability to analyze trade-offs, generating model output for each of the pressure chains to allow for a phasing-out of human pressures. The Bayesian measure of ecosystem health is sensitive to trends in environmental features, but robust to ecosystem variability in line with state space models. The combination of the ex-ante and ex-post branch is essential to evaluate ecosystem resilience and to adopt adaptive management. Based on requirements of the heuristic approach, three possible developments of this concept can be envisioned, i.e. a governance driven approach built upon participatory processes, a science driven functional-holistic approach requiring extensive monitoring to analyze complete ecosystem variability, and an approach with emphasis on ex-ante modeling and ex-post assessment of well-studied subsystems. PMID:27509185

Electromagnetic drift waves dispersion for arbitrarily collisional plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, Wonjae, E-mail: wol023@ucsd.edu; Krasheninnikov, Sergei I., E-mail: skrash@mae.ucsd.edu; Angus, J. R.

2015-07-15

The impacts of the electromagnetic effects on resistive and collisionless drift waves are studied. A local linear analysis on an electromagnetic drift-kinetic equation with Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook-like collision operator demonstrates that the model is valid for describing linear growth rates of drift wave instabilities in a wide range of plasma parameters showing convergence to reference models for limiting cases. The wave-particle interactions drive collisionless drift-Alfvén wave instability in low collisionality and high beta plasma regime. The Landau resonance effects not only excite collisionless drift wave modes but also suppress high frequency electron inertia modes observed from an electromagnetic fluid model in collisionlessmore » and low beta regime. Considering ion temperature effects, it is found that the impact of finite Larmor radius effects significantly reduces the growth rate of the drift-Alfvén wave instability with synergistic effects of high beta stabilization and Landau resonance.« less

Efficient Network Coding-Based Loss Recovery for Reliable Multicast in Wireless Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chi, Kaikai; Jiang, Xiaohong; Ye, Baoliu; Horiguchi, Susumu

Recently, network coding has been applied to the loss recovery of reliable multicast in wireless networks [19], where multiple lost packets are XOR-ed together as one packet and forwarded via single retransmission, resulting in a significant reduction of bandwidth consumption. In this paper, we first prove that maximizing the number of lost packets for XOR-ing, which is the key part of the available network coding-based reliable multicast schemes, is actually a complex NP-complete problem. To address this limitation, we then propose an efficient heuristic algorithm for finding an approximately optimal solution of this optimization problem. Furthermore, we show that the packet coding principle of maximizing the number of lost packets for XOR-ing sometimes cannot fully exploit the potential coding opportunities, and we then further propose new heuristic-based schemes with a new coding principle. Simulation results demonstrate that the heuristic-based schemes have very low computational complexity and can achieve almost the same transmission efficiency as the current coding-based high-complexity schemes. Furthermore, the heuristic-based schemes with the new coding principle not only have very low complexity, but also slightly outperform the current high-complexity ones.

Assimilation of thermospheric measurements for ionosphere-thermosphere state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miladinovich, Daniel S.; Datta-Barua, Seebany; Bust, Gary S.; Makela, Jonathan J.

2016-12-01

We develop a method that uses data assimilation to estimate ionospheric-thermospheric (IT) states during midlatitude nighttime storm conditions. The algorithm Estimating Model Parameters from Ionospheric Reverse Engineering (EMPIRE) uses time-varying electron densities in the F region, derived primarily from total electron content data, to estimate two drivers of the IT: neutral winds and electric potential. A Kalman filter is used to update background models based on ingested plasma densities and neutral wind measurements. This is the first time a Kalman filtering technique is used with the EMPIRE algorithm and the first time neutral wind measurements from 630.0 nm Fabry-Perot interferometers (FPIs) are ingested to improve estimates of storm time ion drifts and neutral winds. The effects of assimilating remotely sensed neutral winds from FPI observations are studied by comparing results of ingesting: electron densities (N) only, N plus half the measurements from a single FPI, and then N plus all of the FPI data. While estimates of ion drifts and neutral winds based on N give estimates similar to the background models, this study's results show that ingestion of the FPI data can significantly change neutral wind and ion drift estimation away from background models. In particular, once neutral winds are ingested, estimated neutral winds agree more with validation wind data, and estimated ion drifts in the magnetic field-parallel direction are more sensitive to ingestion than the field-perpendicular zonal and meridional directions. Also, data assimilation with FPI measurements helps provide insight into the effects of contamination on 630.0 nm emissions experienced during geomagnetic storms.

Development of heuristic bias detection in elementary school.

PubMed

De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

2013-02-01

Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were presented with child-friendly versions of classic base-rate problems in which a cued heuristic response could be inconsistent or consistent with the base rates. After each problem children were asked to indicate their subjective response confidence to assess their bias detection skills. Results indicated that 6th graders showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave a heuristic response that conflicted with the base rates. However, this confidence decrease was not observed for 3rd graders, suggesting that they did not yet acknowledge that their judgment was not fully warranted. Implications for the development of efficient training programs and the debate on human rationality are discussed. (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Ground control system for the midcourse space experiment UTC clock

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dragonette, Richard

1994-01-01

One goal of the Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX) spacecraft Operations Planning Center is to maintain the onboard satellite UTC clock (UTC(MSX)) to within 1 millisecond of UTC(APL) (the program requirement is 10 msec). The UTC(MSX) clock employs as its time base an APL built 5 MHz quartz oscillator, which is expected to have frequency instabilities (aging rate + drift rate + frequency offset) that will cause the clock to drift approximately two to ten milliseconds per day. The UTC(MSX) clock can be advanced or retarded by the APL MSX satellite ground control center by integer multiples of 1 millisecond. The MSX Operations Planning Center is developing software which records the drift of UTC(MSX) relative to UTC(APL) and which schedules the time of day and magnitude of UTC(MSX) clock updates up to 48 hours in advance. Because of the manner in which MSX spacecraft activities are scheduled, MSX clock updates are planned 24 to 48 hours in advance, and stored in the satellite's computer controller for later execution. Data will be collected on the drift of UTC(MSX) relative to UTC(APL) over a three to five day period. Approximately six times per day, the time offset between UTC(MSX) and UTC(APL) will be measured by APL with a resolution of less than 100 microseconds. From this data a second order analytical model of the clock's drift will be derived. This model will be used to extrapolate the offset of the MSX clock in time from the present to 48 hours in the future. MSX clock updates will be placed on the spacecraft's daily schedule whenever the predicted clock offset exceeds 0.5 milliseconds. The paper includes a discussion of how the empirical model of the MSX clock is derived from satellite telemetry data, as well as the algorithm used to schedule MSX clock updates based on the model.

EVALUATION OF THE AGDISP AERIAL SPRAY ALGORITHMS IN THE AGDRIFT MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

A systematic evaluation of the AgDISP algorithms, which simulate off-site drift and deposition of aerially applied pesticides, contained in the AgDRIFT model was performed by comparing model simulations to field-trial data collected by the Spray Drift Task Force. Field-trial data...

Benefit of adaptive FEC in shared backup path protected elastic optical network.

PubMed

Guo, Hong; Dai, Hua; Wang, Chao; Li, Yongcheng; Bose, Sanjay K; Shen, Gangxiang

2015-07-27

We apply an adaptive forward error correction (FEC) allocation strategy to an Elastic Optical Network (EON) operated with shared backup path protection (SBPP). To maximize the protected network capacity that can be carried, an Integer Linear Programing (ILP) model and a spectrum window plane (SWP)-based heuristic algorithm are developed. Simulation results show that the FEC coding overhead required by the adaptive FEC scheme is significantly lower than that needed by a fixed FEC allocation strategy resulting in higher network capacity for the adaptive strategy. The adaptive FEC allocation strategy can also significantly outperform the fixed FEC allocation strategy both in terms of the spare capacity redundancy and the average FEC coding overhead needed per optical channel. The proposed heuristic algorithm is efficient and not only performs closer to the ILP model but also does much better than the shortest-path algorithm.

CEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere (ETI) Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models: NmF2, hmF2, and Vertical Drift Using Ground-Based Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastatter, L.; Hesse, M.; Bilitza, D.; Butala, M.; Codrescu, M.; Emery, B.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T.;

On Nulling, Drifting, and Their Interactions in PSRs J1741-0840 and J1840-0840

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gajjar, V.; Yuan, J. P.; Yuen, R.; Wen, Z. G.; Liu, Z. Y.; Wang, N.

2017-12-01

We report detailed investigation of nulling and drifting behavior of two pulsars PSRs J1741-0840 and J1840-0840 observed from the Giant Meterwave Radio Telescope at 625 MHz. PSR J1741-0840 was found to show a nulling fraction (NF) of around 30% ± 5% while PSR J1840-0840 was shown to have an NF of around 50% ± 6%. We measured drifting behavior from different profile components in PSR J1840-0840 for the first time with the leading component showing drifting with 13.5 ± 0.7 periods while the weak trailing component showed drifting of around 18 ± 1 periods. Large nulling hampers accuracy of these quantities derived using standard Fourier techniques. A more accurate comparison was drawn from driftband slopes, measured after sub-pulse modeling. These measurements revealed interesting sporadic and irregular drifting behavior in both pulsars. We conclude that the previously reported different drifting periodicities in the trailing component of PSR J1741-0840 is likely due to the spread in these driftband slopes. We also find that both components of PSR J1840-0840 show similar driftband slopes within the uncertainties. Unique nulling-drifting interaction is identified in PSR J1840-0840 where, on most occasions, the pulsar tends to start nulling after what appears to be the end of a driftband. Similarly, when the pulsar switches back to an emission phase, on most occasions it starts at the beginning of a new driftband in both components. Such behaviors have not been detected in any other pulsars to our knowledge. We also found that PSR J1741-0840 seems to have no memory of its previous burst phase while PSR J1840-0840 clearly exhibits memory of its previous state even after longer nulls for both components. We discuss possible explanations for these intriguing nulling-drifting interactions seen in both pulsars based on various pulsar nulling models.

Impact of Blended Learning Environments Based on Algo-Heuristic Theory on Some Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aygün, Mustafa; Korkmaz, Özgen

2012-01-01

In this study, the effects of Algo-Heuristic Theory based blended learning environments on students' computer skills in their preparation of presentations, levels of attitudes towards computers, and levels of motivation regarding the information technology course were investigated. The research sample was composed of 71 students. A semi-empirical…

Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

PubMed

Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

2007-11-01

According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

Exact and Heuristic Algorithms for Runway Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malik, Waqar A.; Jung, Yoon C.

2016-01-01

This paper explores the Single Runway Scheduling (SRS) problem with arrivals, departures, and crossing aircraft on the airport surface. Constraints for wake vortex separations, departure area navigation separations and departure time window restrictions are explicitly considered. The main objective of this research is to develop exact and heuristic based algorithms that can be used in real-time decision support tools for Air Traffic Control Tower (ATCT) controllers. The paper provides a multi-objective dynamic programming (DP) based algorithm that finds the exact solution to the SRS problem, but may prove unusable for application in real-time environment due to large computation times for moderate sized problems. We next propose a second algorithm that uses heuristics to restrict the search space for the DP based algorithm. A third algorithm based on a combination of insertion and local search (ILS) heuristics is then presented. Simulation conducted for the east side of Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport allows comparison of the three proposed algorithms and indicates that the ILS algorithm performs favorably in its ability to find efficient solutions and its computation times.

SPRAYTRAN USER'S GUIDE: A GIS-BASED ATMOSPHERIC SPRAY DROPLET DISPERSION MODELING SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

The offsite drift of pesticide from spray operations is an ongoing source of concern. The SPRAY TRANsport (SPRAYTRAN) system, documented in this report, incorporates the near-field spray application model, AGDISP, into a meso-scale atmospheric transport model. The AGDISP model ...

Jamming Attack in Wireless Sensor Network: From Time to Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yanqiang; Wang, Xiaodong; Zhou, Xingming

Classical jamming attack models in the time domain have been proposed, such as constant jammer, random jammer, and reactive jammer. In this letter, we consider a new problem: given k jammers, how does the attacker minimize the pair-wise connectivity among the nodes in a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN)? We call this problem k-Jammer Deployment Problem (k-JDP). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at considering the position-critical jamming attack against wireless sensor network. We mainly make three contributions. First, we prove that the decision version of k-JDP is NP-complete even in the ideal situation where the attacker has full knowledge of the topology information of sensor network. Second, we propose a mathematical formulation based on Integer Programming (IP) model which yields an optimal solution. Third, we present a heuristic algorithm HAJDP, and compare it with the IP model. Numerical results show that our heuristic algorithm is computationally efficient.

Approximation, abstraction and decomposition in search and optimization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellman, Thomas

1992-01-01

In this paper, I discuss four different areas of my research. One portion of my research has focused on automatic synthesis of search control heuristics for constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). I have developed techniques for automatically synthesizing two types of heuristics for CSPs: Filtering functions are used to remove portions of a search space from consideration. Another portion of my research is focused on automatic synthesis of hierarchic algorithms for solving constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs). I have developed a technique for constructing hierarchic problem solvers based on numeric interval algebra. Another portion of my research is focused on automatic decomposition of design optimization problems. We are using the design of racing yacht hulls as a testbed domain for this research. Decomposition is especially important in the design of complex physical shapes such as yacht hulls. Another portion of my research is focused on intelligent model selection in design optimization. The model selection problem results from the difficulty of using exact models to analyze the performance of candidate designs.

Paranoid thinking as a heuristic.

PubMed

Preti, Antonio; Cella, Matteo

2010-08-01

Paranoid thinking can be viewed as a human heuristic used by individuals to deal with uncertainty during stressful situations. Under stress, individuals are likely to emphasize the threatening value of neutral stimuli and increase the reliance on paranoia-based heuristic to interpreter events and guide their decisions. Paranoid thinking can also be activated by stress arising from the possibility of losing a good opportunity; this may result in an abnormal allocation of attentional resources to social agents. A better understanding of the interplay between cognitive heuristics and emotional processes may help to detect situations in which paranoid thinking is likely to exacerbate and improve intervention for individuals with delusional disorders.

Modern spandrels: the roles of genetic drift, gene flow and natural selection in the evolution of parallel clines.

PubMed

Santangelo, James S; Johnson, Marc T J; Ness, Rob W

2018-05-16

Urban environments offer the opportunity to study the role of adaptive and non-adaptive evolutionary processes on an unprecedented scale. While the presence of parallel clines in heritable phenotypic traits is often considered strong evidence for the role of natural selection, non-adaptive evolutionary processes can also generate clines, and this may be more likely when traits have a non-additive genetic basis due to epistasis. In this paper, we use spatially explicit simulations modelled according to the cyanogenesis (hydrogen cyanide, HCN) polymorphism in white clover ( Trifolium repens ) to examine the formation of phenotypic clines along urbanization gradients under varying levels of drift, gene flow and selection. HCN results from an epistatic interaction between two Mendelian-inherited loci. Our results demonstrate that the genetic architecture of this trait makes natural populations susceptible to decreases in HCN frequencies via drift. Gradients in the strength of drift across a landscape resulted in phenotypic clines with lower frequencies of HCN in strongly drifting populations, giving the misleading appearance of deterministic adaptive changes in the phenotype. Studies of heritable phenotypic change in urban populations should generate null models of phenotypic evolution based on the genetic architecture underlying focal traits prior to invoking selection's role in generating adaptive differentiation. © 2018 The Author(s).

Ecological risk assessment on heavy metals in soils: Use of soil diffuse reflectance mid-infrared Fourier-transform spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Wang, Cheng; Li, Wei; Guo, Mingxing; Ji, Junfeng

2017-01-01

The bioavailability of heavy metals in soil is controlled by their concentrations and soil properties. Diffuse reflectance mid-infrared Fourier-transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) is capable of detecting specific organic and inorganic bonds in metal complexes and minerals and therefore, has been employed to predict soil composition and heavy metal contents. The present study explored the potential of DRIFTS for estimating soil heavy metal bioavailability. Soil and corresponding wheat grain samples from the Yangtze River Delta region were analyzed by DRIFTS and chemical methods. Statistical regression analyses were conducted to correlate the soil spectral information to the concentrations of Cd, Cr, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, Hg and Fe in wheat grains. The principal components in the spectra influencing soil heavy metal bioavailability were identified and used in prediction model construction. The established soil DRIFTS-based prediction models were applied to estimate the heavy metal concentrations in wheat grains in the mid-Yangtze River Delta area. The predicted heavy metal concentrations of wheat grain were highly consistent with the measured levels by chemical analysis, showing a significant correlation (r2 > 0.72) with acceptable root mean square error RMSE. In conclusion, DRIFTS is a promising technique for assessing the bioavailability of soil heavy metals and related ecological risk. PMID:28198802

Plasma diffusion at the magnetopause - The case of lower hybrid drift waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treumann, R. A.; Labelle, J.; Pottelette, R.

1991-01-01

The diffusion expected from the quasi-linear theory of the lower hybrid drift instability at the earth's magnetopause is recalculated. The resulting diffusion coefficient is marginally large enough to explain the thickness of the boundary layer under quiet conditions, based on observational upper limits for the wave intensities. Thus, one possible model for the boundary layer could involve equilibrium between the diffusion arising from lower hybrid waves and various loss processes.

Fluent, fast, and frugal? A formal model evaluation of the interplay between memory, fluency, and comparative judgments.

PubMed

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Erdfelder, Edgar; Pohl, Rüdiger F

2011-07-01

A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency-that is, the speed with which objects are recognized-will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has remained largely untested due to methodological difficulties. To overcome the latter, we propose a measurement model from the class of multinomial processing tree models that can estimate true single-cue reliance on recognition and retrieval fluency. We applied this model to aggregate and individual data from a probabilistic inference experiment and considered both goodness of fit and model complexity to evaluate different hypotheses. The results were relatively clear-cut, revealing that the fluency heuristic is an unlikely candidate for describing comparative judgments concerning recognized objects. These findings are discussed in light of a broader theoretical view on the interplay of memory and judgment processes.

A drift line bias estimator: ARMA-based filter or calibration method, and its application in BDS/GPS-based attitude determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhang; Yanqing, Hou; Jie, Wu

2016-12-01

The multi-antenna synchronized receiver (using a common clock) is widely applied in GNSS-based attitude determination (AD) or terrain deformations monitoring, and many other applications, since the high-accuracy single-differenced carrier phase can be used to improve the positioning or AD accuracy. Thus, the line bias (LB) parameter (fractional bias isolating) should be calibrated in the single-differenced phase equations. In the past decades, all researchers estimated the LB as a constant parameter in advance and compensated it in real time. However, the constant LB assumption is inappropriate in practical applications because of the physical length and permittivity changes of the cables, caused by the environmental temperature variation and the instability of receiver-self inner circuit transmitting delay. Considering the LB drift (or colored LB) in practical circumstances, this paper initiates a real-time estimator using auto regressive moving average-based (ARMA) prediction/whitening filter model or Moving average-based (MA) constant calibration model. In the ARMA-based filter model, four cases namely AR(1), ARMA(1, 1), AR(2) and ARMA(2, 1) are applied for the LB prediction. The real-time relative positioning model using the ARMA-based predicting LB is derived and it is theoretically proved that the positioning accuracy is better than the traditional double difference carrier phase (DDCP) model. The drifting LB is defined with a phase temperature changing rate integral function, which is a random walk process if the phase temperature changing rate is white noise, and is validated by the analysis of the AR model coefficient. The auto covariance function shows that the LB is indeed varying in time and estimating it as a constant is not safe, which is also demonstrated by the analysis on LB variation of each visible satellite during a zero and short baseline BDS/GPS experiment. Compared to the DDCP approach, in the zero-baseline experiment, the LB constant calibration (LBCC) and MA approaches improved the positioning accuracy of the vertical component, while slightly degrading the accuracy of the horizontal components. The ARMA(1, 0) model, however, improved the positioning accuracy of all three components, with 40 and 50 % improvement of the vertical component for BDS and GPS, respectively. In the short baseline experiment, compared to the DDCP approach, the LBCC approach yielded bad positioning solutions and degraded the AD accuracy; both MA and ARMA-based filter approaches improved the AD accuracy. Moreover, the ARMA(1, 0) and ARMA(1, 1) models have relatively better performance, improving to 55 % and 48 % the elevation angle in ARMA(1, 1) and MA model for GPS, respectively. Furthermore, the drifting LB variation is found to be continuous and slowly cumulative; the variation magnitudes in the unit of length are almost identical on different frequency carrier phases, so the LB variation does not show obvious correlation between different frequencies. Consequently, the wide-lane LB in the unit of cycle is very stable, while the narrow-lane LB varies largely in time. This reasoning probably also explains the phenomenon that the wide-lane LB originating in the satellites is stable, while the narrow-lane LB varies. The results of ARMA-based filters are better than the MA model, which probably implies that the modeling for drifting LB can further improve the precise point positioning accuracy.

How Smart Do You Need to Be to Get It Wrong? The Role of Cognitive Capacity in the Development of Heuristic-Based Judgment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morsanyi, Kinga; Handley, Simon J.

2008-01-01

We examined the relationship between cognitive capacity and heuristic responding on four types of reasoning and decision-making tasks. A total of 84 children, between 5 years 2 months and 11 years 7 months of age, participated in the study. There was a marked increase in heuristic responding with age that was related to increases in cognitive…

Homo heuristicus: why biased minds make better inferences.

PubMed

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brighton, Henry

2009-01-01

Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes that ignore information. In contrast to the widely held view that less processing reduces accuracy, the study of heuristics shows that less information, computation, and time can in fact improve accuracy. We review the major progress made so far: (a) the discovery of less-is-more effects; (b) the study of the ecological rationality of heuristics, which examines in which environments a given strategy succeeds or fails, and why; (c) an advancement from vague labels to computational models of heuristics; (d) the development of a systematic theory of heuristics that identifies their building blocks and the evolved capacities they exploit, and views the cognitive system as relying on an "adaptive toolbox;" and (e) the development of an empirical methodology that accounts for individual differences, conducts competitive tests, and has provided evidence for people's adaptive use of heuristics. Homo heuristicus has a biased mind and ignores part of the available information, yet a biased mind can handle uncertainty more efficiently and robustly than an unbiased mind relying on more resource-intensive and general-purpose processing strategies. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

A Scalable Heuristic for Viral Marketing Under the Tipping Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

removal of high-degree nodes. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we provide formal definitions of the tipping model. This is...that must be activated for it to become activate as well. A Scalable Heuristic for Viral Marketing Under the Tipping Model 3 Definition 1 (Threshold...returns a set of active nodes after one time step. Definition 2 (Activation Function) Given a threshold function, θ, an ac- tivation function Aθ maps

Multilevel Models for Estimating the Effect of Implementing Argumentation-Based Elementary Science Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shelley, Mack; Gonwa-Reeves, Christopher; Baenziger, Joan; Seefeld, Ashley; Hand, Brian; Therrien, William; Villanueva, Mary Grace; Taylor, Jonte

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of implementation of the Science Writing Heuristic (SWH) approach at 5th grade level in the public school system in Iowa as measured by Cornell Critical Thinking student test scores. This is part of a project that overall tests the efficacy of the SWH inquiry-based approach to build students'…

Evaluation of observed blast loading effects on NIF x-ray diagnostic collimators.

PubMed

Masters, N D; Fisher, A; Kalantar, D; Prasad, R; Stölken, J S; Wlodarczyk, C

2014-11-01

We present the "debris wind" models used to estimate the impulsive load to which x-ray diagnostics and other structures are subject during National Ignition Facility experiments. These models are used as part of the engineering design process. Isotropic models, based on simulations or simplified "expanding shell" models, are augmented by debris wind multipliers to account for directional anisotropy. We present improvements to these multipliers based on measurements of the permanent deflections of diagnostic components: 4× for the polar direction and 2× within the equatorial plane-the latter relaxing the previous heuristic debris wind multiplier.

Biased and greedy random walks on two-dimensional lattices with quenched randomness: The greedy ant within a disordered environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitran, T. L.; Melchert, O.; Hartmann, A. K.

2013-12-01

The main characteristics of biased greedy random walks (BGRWs) on two-dimensional lattices with real-valued quenched disorder on the lattice edges are studied. Here the disorder allows for negative edge weights. In previous studies, considering the negative-weight percolation (NWP) problem, this was shown to change the universality class of the existing, static percolation transition. In the presented study, four different types of BGRWs and an algorithm based on the ant colony optimization heuristic were considered. Regarding the BGRWs, the precise configurations of the lattice walks constructed during the numerical simulations were influenced by two parameters: a disorder parameter ρ that controls the amount of negative edge weights on the lattice and a bias strength B that governs the drift of the walkers along a certain lattice direction. The random walks are “greedy” in the sense that the local optimal choice of the walker is to preferentially traverse edges with a negative weight (associated with a net gain of “energy” for the walker). Here, the pivotal observable is the probability that, after termination, a lattice walk exhibits a total negative weight, which is here considered as percolating. The behavior of this observable as function of ρ for different bias strengths B is put under scrutiny. Upon tuning ρ, the probability to find such a feasible lattice walk increases from zero to 1. This is the key feature of the percolation transition in the NWP model. Here, we address the question how well the transition point ρc, resulting from numerically exact and “static” simulations in terms of the NWP model, can be resolved using simple dynamic algorithms that have only local information available, one of the basic questions in the physics of glassy systems.

Unified heuristics to solve routing problem of reverse logistics in sustainable supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbuudayasankar, S. P.; Ganesh, K.; Lenny Koh, S. C.; Mohandas, K.

2010-03-01

A reverse logistics problem, motivated by many real-life applications, is examined where bottles/cans in which products are delivered from a processing depot to customers in one period are available for return to the depot in the following period. The picked-up bottles/cans need to be adjusted in the place of delivery load. This problem is termed as simultaneous delivery and pick-up problem with constrained capacity (SDPC). We develop three unified heuristics based on extended branch and bound heuristic, genetic algorithm and simulated annealing to solve SDPC. These heuristics are also designed to solve standard travelling salesman problem (TSP) and TSP with simultaneous delivery and pick-up (TSDP). We tested the heuristics on standard, derived and randomly generated datasets of TSP, TSDP and SDPC and obtained satisfying results with high convergence in reasonable time.

Coordinated distribution network control of tap changer transformers, capacitors and PV inverters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ceylan, Oğuzhan; Liu, Guodong; Tomsovic, Kevin

A power distribution system operates most efficiently with voltage deviations along a feeder kept to a minimum and must ensure all voltages remain within specified limits. Recently with the increased integration of photovoltaics, the variable power output has led to increased voltage fluctuations and violation of operating limits. This study proposes an optimization model based on a recently developed heuristic search method, grey wolf optimization, to coordinate the various distribution controllers. Several different case studies on IEEE 33 and 69 bus test systems modified by including tap changing transformers, capacitors and photovoltaic solar panels are performed. Simulation results are comparedmore » to two other heuristic-based optimization methods: harmony search and differential evolution. Finally, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the method and indicate the usage of reactive power outputs of PVs facilitates better voltage magnitude profile.« less

Coordinated distribution network control of tap changer transformers, capacitors and PV inverters

DOE PAGES

Ceylan, Oğuzhan; Liu, Guodong; Tomsovic, Kevin

2017-06-08

A power distribution system operates most efficiently with voltage deviations along a feeder kept to a minimum and must ensure all voltages remain within specified limits. Recently with the increased integration of photovoltaics, the variable power output has led to increased voltage fluctuations and violation of operating limits. This study proposes an optimization model based on a recently developed heuristic search method, grey wolf optimization, to coordinate the various distribution controllers. Several different case studies on IEEE 33 and 69 bus test systems modified by including tap changing transformers, capacitors and photovoltaic solar panels are performed. Simulation results are comparedmore » to two other heuristic-based optimization methods: harmony search and differential evolution. Finally, the simulation results show the effectiveness of the method and indicate the usage of reactive power outputs of PVs facilitates better voltage magnitude profile.« less

Post-game analysis: An initial experiment for heuristic-based resource management in concurrent systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yan, Jerry C.

1987-01-01

In concurrent systems, a major responsibility of the resource management system is to decide how the application program is to be mapped onto the multi-processor. Instead of using abstract program and machine models, a generate-and-test framework known as 'post-game analysis' that is based on data gathered during program execution is proposed. Each iteration consists of (1) (a simulation of) an execution of the program; (2) analysis of the data gathered; and (3) the proposal of a new mapping that would have a smaller execution time. These heuristics are applied to predict execution time changes in response to small perturbations applied to the current mapping. An initial experiment was carried out using simple strategies on 'pipeline-like' applications. The results obtained from four simple strategies demonstrated that for this kind of application, even simple strategies can produce acceptable speed-up with a small number of iterations.

Adaptive Event-Triggered Control Based on Heuristic Dynamic Programming for Nonlinear Discrete-Time Systems.

PubMed

Dong, Lu; Zhong, Xiangnan; Sun, Changyin; He, Haibo

2017-07-01

This paper presents the design of a novel adaptive event-triggered control method based on the heuristic dynamic programming (HDP) technique for nonlinear discrete-time systems with unknown system dynamics. In the proposed method, the control law is only updated when the event-triggered condition is violated. Compared with the periodic updates in the traditional adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) control, the proposed method can reduce the computation and transmission cost. An actor-critic framework is used to learn the optimal event-triggered control law and the value function. Furthermore, a model network is designed to estimate the system state vector. The main contribution of this paper is to design a new trigger threshold for discrete-time systems. A detailed Lyapunov stability analysis shows that our proposed event-triggered controller can asymptotically stabilize the discrete-time systems. Finally, we test our method on two different discrete-time systems, and the simulation results are included.

Evidence-based Heuristics for Evaluating Demands on eHealth Literacy and Usability in a Mobile Consumer Health Application.

PubMed

Monkman, Helen; Griffith, Janessa; Kushniruk, Andre W

2015-01-01

Heuristic evaluations have proven to be valuable for identifying usability issues in systems. Commonly used sets of heuritics exist; however, they may not always be the most suitable, given the specific goal of the analysis. One such example is seeking to evaluate the demands on eHealth literacy and usability of consumer health information systems. In this study, eight essential heuristics and three optional heuristics subsumed from the evidence on eHealth/health literacy and usability were tested for their utility in assessing a mobile blood pressure tracking application (app). This evaluation revealed a variety of ways the design of the app could both benefit and impede users with limited eHealth literacy. This study demonstrated the utility of a low-cost, single evaluation approach for identifying both eHealth literacy and usability issues based on existing evidence in the literature.

Optimizing a multi-product closed-loop supply chain using NSGA-II, MOSA, and MOPSO meta-heuristic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaveisi, Vahid; Paydar, Mohammad Mahdi; Safaei, Abdul Sattar

2018-07-01

This study aims to discuss the solution methodology for a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network that includes the collection of used products as well as distribution of the new products. This supply chain is presented on behalf of the problems that can be solved by the proposed meta-heuristic algorithms. A mathematical model is designed for a CLSC that involves three objective functions of maximizing the profit, minimizing the total risk and shortages of products. Since three objective functions are considered, a multi-objective solution methodology can be advantageous. Therefore, several approaches have been studied and an NSGA-II algorithm is first utilized, and then the results are validated using an MOSA and MOPSO algorithms. Priority-based encoding, which is used in all the algorithms, is the core of the solution computations. To compare the performance of the meta-heuristics, random numerical instances are evaluated by four criteria involving mean ideal distance, spread of non-dominance solution, the number of Pareto solutions, and CPU time. In order to enhance the performance of the algorithms, Taguchi method is used for parameter tuning. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed and the computational results are presented based on the sensitivity analyses in parameter tuning.

Optimizing a multi-product closed-loop supply chain using NSGA-II, MOSA, and MOPSO meta-heuristic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babaveisi, Vahid; Paydar, Mohammad Mahdi; Safaei, Abdul Sattar

2017-07-01

This study aims to discuss the solution methodology for a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) network that includes the collection of used products as well as distribution of the new products. This supply chain is presented on behalf of the problems that can be solved by the proposed meta-heuristic algorithms. A mathematical model is designed for a CLSC that involves three objective functions of maximizing the profit, minimizing the total risk and shortages of products. Since three objective functions are considered, a multi-objective solution methodology can be advantageous. Therefore, several approaches have been studied and an NSGA-II algorithm is first utilized, and then the results are validated using an MOSA and MOPSO algorithms. Priority-based encoding, which is used in all the algorithms, is the core of the solution computations. To compare the performance of the meta-heuristics, random numerical instances are evaluated by four criteria involving mean ideal distance, spread of non-dominance solution, the number of Pareto solutions, and CPU time. In order to enhance the performance of the algorithms, Taguchi method is used for parameter tuning. Finally, sensitivity analyses are performed and the computational results are presented based on the sensitivity analyses in parameter tuning.

Near-Optimal Tracking Control of Mobile Robots Via Receding-Horizon Dual Heuristic Programming.

PubMed

Lian, Chuanqiang; Xu, Xin; Chen, Hong; He, Haibo

2016-11-01

Trajectory tracking control of wheeled mobile robots (WMRs) has been an important research topic in control theory and robotics. Although various tracking control methods with stability have been developed for WMRs, it is still difficult to design optimal or near-optimal tracking controller under uncertainties and disturbances. In this paper, a near-optimal tracking control method is presented for WMRs based on receding-horizon dual heuristic programming (RHDHP). In the proposed method, a backstepping kinematic controller is designed to generate desired velocity profiles and the receding horizon strategy is used to decompose the infinite-horizon optimal control problem into a series of finite-horizon optimal control problems. In each horizon, a closed-loop tracking control policy is successively updated using a class of approximate dynamic programming algorithms called finite-horizon dual heuristic programming (DHP). The convergence property of the proposed method is analyzed and it is shown that the tracking control system based on RHDHP is asymptotically stable by using the Lyapunov approach. Simulation results on three tracking control problems demonstrate that the proposed method has improved control performance when compared with conventional model predictive control (MPC) and DHP. It is also illustrated that the proposed method has lower computational burden than conventional MPC, which is very beneficial for real-time tracking control.

The identification of complete domains within protein sequences using accurate E-values for semi-global alignment

PubMed Central

Kann, Maricel G.; Sheetlin, Sergey L.; Park, Yonil; Bryant, Stephen H.; Spouge, John L.

2007-01-01

The sequencing of complete genomes has created a pressing need for automated annotation of gene function. Because domains are the basic units of protein function and evolution, a gene can be annotated from a domain database by aligning domains to the corresponding protein sequence. Ideally, complete domains are aligned to protein subsequences, in a ‘semi-global alignment’. Local alignment, which aligns pieces of domains to subsequences, is common in high-throughput annotation applications, however. It is a mature technique, with the heuristics and accurate E-values required for screening large databases and evaluating the screening results. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) provide an alternative theoretical framework for semi-global alignment, but their use is limited because they lack heuristic acceleration and accurate E-values. Our new tool, GLOBAL, overcomes some limitations of previous semi-global HMMs: it has accurate E-values and the possibility of the heuristic acceleration required for high-throughput applications. Moreover, according to a standard of truth based on protein structure, two semi-global HMM alignment tools (GLOBAL and HMMer) had comparable performance in identifying complete domains, but distinctly outperformed two tools based on local alignment. When searching for complete protein domains, therefore, GLOBAL avoids disadvantages commonly associated with HMMs, yet maintains their superior retrieval performance. PMID:17596268

Modeling and simulation of Cu diffusion and drift in porous CMOS backend dielectrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, R.; Fan, Y.; King, S.; Orlowski, M.

2018-06-01

With the advent of porous dielectrics, Cu drift-diffusion reliability issues in CMOS backend have only been exacerbated. In this regard, a modeling and simulation study of Cu atom/ion drift-diffusion in porous dielectrics is presented to assess the backend reliability and to explore conditions for a reliable Resistive Random Access Memory (RRAM) operation. The numerical computation, using elementary jump frequencies for a random walk in 2D and 3D, is based on an extended adjacency tensor concept. It is shown that Cu diffusion and drift transport are affected as much by the level of porosity as by the pore morphology. Allowance is made for different rates of Cu dissolution into the dielectric and for Cu absorption and transport at and on the inner walls of the pores. Most of the complex phenomena of the drift-diffusion transport in porous media can be understood in terms of local lateral and vertical gradients and the degree of their perturbation caused by the presence of pores in the transport domain. The impact of pore morphology, related to the concept of tortuosity, is discussed in terms of "channeling" and "trapping" effects. The simulations are calibrated to experimental results of porous SiCOH layers of 25 nm thickness, sandwiched between Cu and Pt(W) electrodes with experimental porosity levels of 0%, 8%, 12%, and 25%. We find that porous SICOH is more immune to Cu+ drift at 300 K than non-porous SICOH.

Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and THC Seepage) Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Gonnenthal; N. Spyoher

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Near-Field Environment (NFE) and Unsaturated Zone (UZ) models used to evaluate the potential effects of coupled thermal-hydrologic-chemical (THC) processes on unsaturated zone flow and transport. This is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report'', Addendum D, Attachment D-4 (Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) Management and Operating Contractor (M and O) 2000 [153447]) and ''Technical Work Plan for Nearfield Environment Thermal Analyses and Testing'' (CRWMS M and O 2000 [153309]). These models include the Drift Scale Test (DST) THCmore » Model and several THC seepage models. These models provide the framework to evaluate THC coupled processes at the drift scale, predict flow and transport behavior for specified thermal loading conditions, and predict the chemistry of waters and gases entering potential waste-emplacement drifts. The intended use of this AMR is to provide input for the following: (1) Performance Assessment (PA); (2) Abstraction of Drift-Scale Coupled Processes AMR (ANL-NBS-HS-000029); (3) UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR); and (4) Near-Field Environment (NFE) PMR. The work scope for this activity is presented in the TWPs cited above, and summarized as follows: continue development of the repository drift-scale THC seepage model used in support of the TSPA in-drift geochemical model; incorporate heterogeneous fracture property realizations; study sensitivity of results to changes in input data and mineral assemblage; validate the DST model by comparison with field data; perform simulations to predict mineral dissolution and precipitation and their effects on fracture properties and chemistry of water (but not flow rates) that may seep into drifts; submit modeling results to the TDMS and document the models. The model development, input data, sensitivity and validation studies described in this AMR are required to fully document and address the requirements of the TWPs.« less

Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and THC Seepage) Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

E. Sonnenthale

The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Near-Field Environment (NFE) and Unsaturated Zone (UZ) models used to evaluate the potential effects of coupled thermal-hydrologic-chemical (THC) processes on unsaturated zone flow and transport. This is in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for Unsaturated Zone Flow and Transport Process Model Report'', Addendum D, Attachment D-4 (Civilian Radioactive Waste Management System (CRWMS) Management and Operating Contractor (M&O) 2000 [1534471]) and ''Technical Work Plan for Nearfield Environment Thermal Analyses and Testing'' (CRWMS M&O 2000 [153309]). These models include the Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model and several THCmore » seepage models. These models provide the framework to evaluate THC coupled processes at the drift scale, predict flow and transport behavior for specified thermal loading conditions, and predict the chemistry of waters and gases entering potential waste-emplacement drifts. The intended use of this AMR is to provide input for the following: Performance Assessment (PA); Near-Field Environment (NFE) PMR; Abstraction of Drift-Scale Coupled Processes AMR (ANL-NBS-HS-000029); and UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). The work scope for this activity is presented in the TWPs cited above, and summarized as follows: Continue development of the repository drift-scale THC seepage model used in support of the TSPA in-drift geochemical model; incorporate heterogeneous fracture property realizations; study sensitivity of results to changes in input data and mineral assemblage; validate the DST model by comparison with field data; perform simulations to predict mineral dissolution and precipitation and their effects on fracture properties and chemistry of water (but not flow rates) that may seep into drifts; submit modeling results to the TDMS and document the models. The model development, input data, sensitivity and validation studies described in this AMR are required to fully document and address the requirements of the TWPs.« less

Thermodynamics-based models of transcriptional regulation with gene sequence.

PubMed

Wang, Shuqiang; Shen, Yanyan; Hu, Jinxing

2015-12-01

Quantitative models of gene regulatory activity have the potential to improve our mechanistic understanding of transcriptional regulation. However, the few models available today have been based on simplistic assumptions about the sequences being modeled or heuristic approximations of the underlying regulatory mechanisms. In this work, we have developed a thermodynamics-based model to predict gene expression driven by any DNA sequence. The proposed model relies on a continuous time, differential equation description of transcriptional dynamics. The sequence features of the promoter are exploited to derive the binding affinity which is derived based on statistical molecular thermodynamics. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively identify the activity levels of transcription factors and the regulatory parameters. Comparing with the previous models, the proposed model can reveal more biological sense.

LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koller, Josep; Reeves, Geoffrey D; Friedel, Reiner H W

2008-01-01

Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models overmore » more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand physical processes and their effect. Without sufficiently accurate L* values, the interpretation of reanalysis results becomes difficult and uncertain. However, with a method that can calculate accurate L* values orders of magnitude faster, analyzing whole solar cycles worth of data suddenly becomes feasible.« less

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

2017-08-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Frank, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyper-activity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups. PMID:27966103

Magnetic Local Time dependency in modeling of the Earth radiation belts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera, Damien; Maget, Vincent; Bourdarie, Sébastien; Rolland, Guy

2017-04-01

For many years, ONERA has been at the forefront of the modeling of the Earth radiation belts thanks to the Salammbô model, which accurately reproduces their dynamics over a time scale of the particles' drift period. This implies that we implicitly assume an homogeneous repartition of the trapped particles along a given drift shell. However, radiation belts are inhomogeneous in Magnetic Local Time (MLT). So, we need to take this new coordinate into account to model rigorously the dynamical structures, particularly induced during a geomagnetic storm. For this purpose, we are working on both the numerical resolution of the Fokker-Planck diffusion equation included in the model and on the MLT dependency of physic-based processes acting in the Earth radiation belts. The aim of this talk is first to present the 4D-equation used and the different steps we used to build Salammbô 4D model before focusing on physical processes taken into account in the Salammbô code, specially transport due to convection electric field. Firstly, we will briefly introduce the Salammbô 4D code developped by talking about its numerical scheme and physic-based processes modeled. Then, we will focus our attention on the impact of the outer boundary condition (localisation and spectrum) at lower L∗ shell by comparing modeling performed with geosynchronous data from LANL-GEO satellites. Finally, we will discuss the prime importance of the convection electric field to the radial and drift transport of low energy particles around the Earth.

An attentional drift diffusion model over binary-attribute choice.

PubMed

Fisher, Geoffrey

2017-11-01

In order to make good decisions, individuals need to identify and properly integrate information about various attributes associated with a choice. Since choices are often complex and made rapidly, they are typically affected by contextual variables that are thought to influence how much attention is paid to different attributes. I propose a modification of the attentional drift-diffusion model, the binary-attribute attentional drift diffusion model (baDDM), which describes the choice process over simple binary-attribute choices and how it is affected by fluctuations in visual attention. Using an eye-tracking experiment, I find the baDDM makes accurate quantitative predictions about several key variables including choices, reaction times, and how these variables are correlated with attention to two attributes in an accept-reject decision. Furthermore, I estimate an attribute-based fixation bias that suggests attention to an attribute increases its subjective weight by 5%, while the unattended attribute's weight is decreased by 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What sets the minimum tokamak scrape-off layer width?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joseph, Ilon

2016-10-01

The heat flux width of the tokamak scrape-off layer is on the order of the poloidal ion gyroradius, but the ``heuristic drift'' physics model is still not completely understood. In the absence of anomalous transport, neoclassical transport sets the minimum width. For plateau collisionality, the ion temperature width is set by qρi , while the electron temperature width scales as the geometric mean q(ρeρi) 1 / 2 and is close to qρi in magnitude. The width is enhanced because electrons are confined by the sheath potential and have a much longer time to radially diffuse before escaping to the wall. In the Pfirsch-Schluter regime, collisional diffusion increases the width by the factor (qR / λ) 1 / 2 where qR is the connection length and λ is the mean free path. This qualitatively agrees with the observed transition in the scaling law for detached plasmas. The radial width of the SOL electric field is determined by Spitzer parallel and ``neoclassical'' radial electric conductivity and has a similar scaling to that for thermal transport. Prepared under US DOE contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Decision support for hospital bed management using adaptable individual length of stay estimations and shared resources.

PubMed

Schmidt, Robert; Geisler, Sandra; Spreckelsen, Cord

2013-01-07

Elective patient admission and assignment planning is an important task of the strategic and operational management of a hospital and early on became a central topic of clinical operations research. The management of hospital beds is an important subtask. Various approaches have been proposed, involving the computation of efficient assignments with regard to the patients' condition, the necessity of the treatment, and the patients' preferences. However, these approaches are mostly based on static, unadaptable estimates of the length of stay and, thus, do not take into account the uncertainty of the patient's recovery. Furthermore, the effect of aggregated bed capacities have not been investigated in this context. Computer supported bed management, combining an adaptable length of stay estimation with the treatment of shared resources (aggregated bed capacities) has not yet been sufficiently investigated. The aim of our work is: 1) to define a cost function for patient admission taking into account adaptable length of stay estimations and aggregated resources, 2) to define a mathematical program formally modeling the assignment problem and an architecture for decision support, 3) to investigate four algorithmic methodologies addressing the assignment problem and one base-line approach, and 4) to evaluate these methodologies w.r.t. cost outcome, performance, and dismissal ratio. The expected free ward capacity is calculated based on individual length of stay estimates, introducing Bernoulli distributed random variables for the ward occupation states and approximating the probability densities. The assignment problem is represented as a binary integer program. Four strategies for solving the problem are applied and compared: an exact approach, using the mixed integer programming solver SCIP; and three heuristic strategies, namely the longest expected processing time, the shortest expected processing time, and random choice. A baseline approach serves to compare these optimization strategies with a simple model of the status quo. All the approaches are evaluated by a realistic discrete event simulation: the outcomes are the ratio of successful assignments and dismissals, the computation time, and the model's cost factors. A discrete event simulation of 226,000 cases shows a reduction of the dismissal rate compared to the baseline by more than 30 percentage points (from a mean dismissal ratio of 74.7% to 40.06% comparing the status quo with the optimization strategies). Each of the optimization strategies leads to an improved assignment. The exact approach has only a marginal advantage over the heuristic strategies in the model's cost factors (≤3%). Moreover,this marginal advantage was only achieved at the price of a computational time fifty times that of the heuristic models (an average computing time of 141 s using the exact method, vs. 2.6 s for the heuristic strategy). In terms of its performance and the quality of its solution, the heuristic strategy RAND is the preferred method for bed assignment in the case of shared resources. Future research is needed to investigate whether an equally marked improvement can be achieved in a large scale clinical application study, ideally one comprising all the departments involved in admission and assignment planning.

Vague-to-Crisp Dynamics of Percept Formation Modeled as Operant (Selectionist) Process

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-04-04

simplifying heuristics versus careful thinking: scientific analysis of millennial spiritual issues. Zygon J Sci Religion 43(4):797 821 Li Y , Nara S (2008...and the pleasures of learning: wanting and liking new information. Cogn Emot 19(6):793 814 Neiman T, Loewenstein Y (2013) Covariance based synaptic

A Heuristic Model of Criminology and Criminal Justice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zalman, Marvin

The differences between criminology and criminal justice are assessed by comparing them to a more abstract typology. This typology is comprised of four basic elements: the focal concerns of the fields; career patterns of professionals; the extent to which the fields are theoretically based and are disciplines, sciences, and professions; and the…

Clipping in neurocontrol by adaptive dynamic programming.

PubMed

Fairbank, Michael; Prokhorov, Danil; Alonso, Eduardo

2014-10-01

In adaptive dynamic programming, neurocontrol, and reinforcement learning, the objective is for an agent to learn to choose actions so as to minimize a total cost function. In this paper, we show that when discretized time is used to model the motion of the agent, it can be very important to do clipping on the motion of the agent in the final time step of the trajectory. By clipping, we mean that the final time step of the trajectory is to be truncated such that the agent stops exactly at the first terminal state reached, and no distance further. We demonstrate that when clipping is omitted, learning performance can fail to reach the optimum, and when clipping is done properly, learning performance can improve significantly. The clipping problem we describe affects algorithms that use explicit derivatives of the model functions of the environment to calculate a learning gradient. These include backpropagation through time for control and methods based on dual heuristic programming. However, the clipping problem does not significantly affect methods based on heuristic dynamic programming, temporal differences learning, or policy-gradient learning algorithms.

Relevancy Ranking of Satellite Dataset Search Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynnes, Christopher; Quinn, Patrick; Norton, James

2017-01-01

As the Variety of Earth science datasets increases, science researchers find it more challenging to discover and select the datasets that best fit their needs. The most common way of search providers to address this problem is to rank the datasets returned for a query by their likely relevance to the user. Large web page search engines typically use text matching supplemented with reverse link counts, semantic annotations and user intent modeling. However, this produces uneven results when applied to dataset metadata records simply externalized as a web page. Fortunately, data and search provides have decades of experience in serving data user communities, allowing them to form heuristics that leverage the structure in the metadata together with knowledge about the user community. Some of these heuristics include specific ways of matching the user input to the essential measurements in the dataset and determining overlaps of time range and spatial areas. Heuristics based on the novelty of the datasets can prioritize later, better versions of data over similar predecessors. And knowledge of how different user types and communities use data can be brought to bear in cases where characteristics of the user (discipline, expertise) or their intent (applications, research) can be divined. The Earth Observing System Data and Information System has begun implementing some of these heuristics in the relevancy algorithm of its Common Metadata Repository search engine.

Adaptive neuro-heuristic hybrid model for fruit peel defects detection.

PubMed

Woźniak, Marcin; Połap, Dawid

2018-02-01

Fusion of machine learning methods benefits in decision support systems. A composition of approaches gives a possibility to use the most efficient features composed into one solution. In this article we would like to present an approach to the development of adaptive method based on fusion of proposed novel neural architecture and heuristic search into one co-working solution. We propose a developed neural network architecture that adapts to processed input co-working with heuristic method used to precisely detect areas of interest. Input images are first decomposed into segments. This is to make processing easier, since in smaller images (decomposed segments) developed Adaptive Artificial Neural Network (AANN) processes less information what makes numerical calculations more precise. For each segment a descriptor vector is composed to be presented to the proposed AANN architecture. Evaluation is run adaptively, where the developed AANN adapts to inputs and their features by composed architecture. After evaluation, selected segments are forwarded to heuristic search, which detects areas of interest. As a result the system returns the image with pixels located over peel damages. Presented experimental research results on the developed solution are discussed and compared with other commonly used methods to validate the efficacy and the impact of the proposed fusion in the system structure and training process on classification results. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can the inherence heuristic explain vitalistic reasoning?

PubMed

Bastian, Brock

2014-10-01

Inherence is an important component of psychological essentialism. By drawing on vitalism as a way in which to explain this link, however, the authors appear to conflate causal explanations based on fixed features with those based on general causal forces. The disjuncture between these two types of explanatory principles highlights potential new avenues for the inherence heuristic.

Reasoning by analogy as an aid to heuristic theorem proving.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kling, R. E.

1972-01-01

When heuristic problem-solving programs are faced with large data bases that contain numbers of facts far in excess of those needed to solve any particular problem, their performance rapidly deteriorates. In this paper, the correspondence between a new unsolved problem and a previously solved analogous problem is computed and invoked to tailor large data bases to manageable sizes. This paper outlines the design of an algorithm for generating and exploiting analogies between theorems posed to a resolution-logic system. These algorithms are believed to be the first computationally feasible development of reasoning by analogy to be applied to heuristic theorem proving.

Scheduling and rescheduling with iterative repair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zweben, Monte; Davis, Eugene; Daun, Brian; Deale, Michael

1992-01-01

This paper describes the GERRY scheduling and rescheduling system being applied to coordinate Space Shuttle Ground Processing. The system uses constraint-based iterative repair, a technique that starts with a complete but possibly flawed schedule and iteratively improves it by using constraint knowledge within repair heuristics. In this paper we explore the tradeoff between the informedness and the computational cost of several repair heuristics. We show empirically that some knowledge can greatly improve the convergence speed of a repair-based system, but that too much knowledge, such as the knowledge embodied within the MIN-CONFLICTS lookahead heuristic, can overwhelm a system and result in degraded performance.

Community Air Monitoring for Pesticide Drift Using Pesticide Action Network's (PAN) Drift Catcher

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquez, E.

2016-12-01

Community air monitoring projects for pesticides in the air have been conducted by PAN in collaboration with community members and locally based groups engaged around pesticide issues. PAN is part of an international network working to promote a just, thriving food system and replace the use of hazardous pesticides with ecologically sound alternatives. The Drift Catcher is an air-monitoring device with a design based on the California Air Resource Board's air monitoring equipment, and has been used in community-based projects in 11 states. Observations of pesticide drift made by community members cannot always be confirmed by regulatory agencies—if an inspection is made hours or days after a drift incident, the evidence may no longer be present. The Drift Catcher makes it possible to collect scientific evidence of pesticide drift in areas where people live, work, and play. One of the most recent Drift Catcher projects was done in California, in partnership with the Safe Strawberry Coalition and led by the statewide coalition Californians for Pesticide Reform. The data were used to support a call for stronger mitigation rules for the fumigant chloropicrin and to support a campaign asking for stronger pesticide rules to protect children attending school in close proximity to agricultural fields. The Drift Catcher data are used by organizers and community members to engage policymakers with the intention of making policy change on a local and/or statewide level. On the national level, PAN's Drift Catcher data has helped win regulatory recognition of volatilization drift for pesticides other than fumigants. Lessons learned from conducting community-based research projects will also be discussed. PAN is also currently assessing other community-based monitoring tools, such as community surveys and drift questionnaires that may allow communities to collect data that can also support the campaign work.

Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and THC Seepage) Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

P. Dixon

The purpose of this Model Report (REV02) is to document the unsaturated zone (UZ) models used to evaluate the potential effects of coupled thermal-hydrological-chemical (THC) processes on UZ flow and transport. This Model Report has been developed in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan for: Performance Assessment Unsaturated Zone'' (Bechtel SAIC Company, LLC (BSC) 2002 [160819]). The technical work plan (TWP) describes planning information pertaining to the technical scope, content, and management of this Model Report in Section 1.12, Work Package AUZM08, ''Coupled Effects on Flow and Seepage''. The plan for validation of the models documented in this Model Reportmore » is given in Attachment I, Model Validation Plans, Section I-3-4, of the TWP. Except for variations in acceptance criteria (Section 4.2), there were no deviations from this TWP. This report was developed in accordance with AP-SIII.10Q, ''Models''. This Model Report documents the THC Seepage Model and the Drift Scale Test (DST) THC Model. The THC Seepage Model is a drift-scale process model for predicting the composition of gas and water that could enter waste emplacement drifts and the effects of mineral alteration on flow in rocks surrounding drifts. The DST THC model is a drift-scale process model relying on the same conceptual model and much of the same input data (i.e., physical, hydrological, thermodynamic, and kinetic) as the THC Seepage Model. The DST THC Model is the primary method for validating the THC Seepage Model. The DST THC Model compares predicted water and gas compositions, as well as mineral alteration patterns, with observed data from the DST. These models provide the framework to evaluate THC coupled processes at the drift scale, predict flow and transport behavior for specified thermal-loading conditions, and predict the evolution of mineral alteration and fluid chemistry around potential waste emplacement drifts. The DST THC Model is used solely for the validation of the THC Seepage Model and is not used for calibration to measured data.« less

The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Offs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brandstatter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2006-01-01

Bernoulli's framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic…

The Robust Beauty of Ordinary Information

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.; Schooler, Lael J.; Hertwig, Ralph

2010-01-01

Heuristics embodying limited information search and noncompensatory processing of information can yield robust performance relative to computationally more complex models. One criticism raised against heuristics is the argument that complexity is hidden in the calculation of the cue order used to make predictions. We discuss ways to order cues…

Symbol interval optimization for molecular communication with drift.

PubMed

Kim, Na-Rae; Eckford, Andrew W; Chae, Chan-Byoung

2014-09-01

In this paper, we propose a symbol interval optimization algorithm in molecular communication with drift. Proper symbol intervals are important in practical communication systems since information needs to be sent as fast as possible with low error rates. There is a trade-off, however, between symbol intervals and inter-symbol interference (ISI) from Brownian motion. Thus, we find proper symbol interval values considering the ISI inside two kinds of blood vessels, and also suggest no ISI system for strong drift models. Finally, an isomer-based molecule shift keying (IMoSK) is applied to calculate achievable data transmission rates (achievable rates, hereafter). Normalized achievable rates are also obtained and compared in one-symbol ISI and no ISI systems.

Influence of channel morphology and flow regime on larval drift of pallid sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erwin, Susannah O.; Jacobson, Robert B.

2015-01-01

The transition from drifting free embryo to exogenously feeding larvae has been identified as a potential life-stage bottleneck for the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon. Previous studies have indicated that river regulation and fragmentation may contribute to the mortality of larval pallid sturgeon by reducing the extent of free-flowing river available to free embryos to complete ontogenetic development. Calculations of total drift distance based on mean velocity, however, do not address the potential for complex channels and flow patterns to increase retention or longitudinal dispersion of free embryos. We use a one-dimensional advection–dispersion model to estimate total drift distance and employ the longitudinal dispersion coefficient as a metric to quantify the tendency towards dispersion or retention of passively drifting larvae. We describe the effects of different styles of channel morphology on larval dispersion and consider the implications of flow regime modifications on retention of free embryos within the Lower Missouri River. The results illustrate the complex interactions of local morphology, engineered structures, and hydraulics that determine patterns of dispersion in riverine environments and inform how changes to channel morphology and flow regime may alter dispersion of drifting organisms.

An Illustrative Case Study of the Heuristic Practices of a High-Performing Research Department: Toward Building a Model Applicable in the Context of Large Urban Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Munoz, Marco A.; Rodosky, Robert J.

2011-01-01

This case study provides an illustration of the heuristic practices of a high-performing research department, which in turn, will help build much needed models applicable in the context of large urban districts. This case study examines the accountability, planning, evaluation, testing, and research functions of a research department in a large…

Sudden appearance of sub-keV structured ions in the inner magnetosphere within one hour: drift simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamauchi, Masatoshi; Ebihara, Yusuke; Dandouras, Iannis; Nilsson, Hans

2014-05-01

Energy-latitude dispersed structured sub-keV ions in the inner magnetosphere drifts very slowly in the noon-to-afternoon sectors because the eastward corotation and the westward magnetic drift balances to each other there. However, majority of Cluster ion observation by the Cluster Ion Spectrometry (CIS) COmposition DIstribution Function (CODIF) instrument during 2001-2006 showed significant development or intensification (by more than factor of 3) within 1-2 h in that sector during the Cluster perigee traversals that quickly scans latitudinal structure at a fixed local time (Yamauchi et al., 2013). The frequent observations of significant inbound-outbound differences in the wedge-like dispersed ions by Cluster indicates either new injections or high eastward drift velocity even in the afternoon sector. To examine the former possibility, i.e., whether such sudden appearances in the dayside can be explained by the drift motion of ions that are formed during substorm-related injections, we numerically simulated two such examples, one at noon (8 September 2002) and the other in the afternoon (9 July 2001), based on the same ion drift simulation model that has successfully reproduced the ion pattern of an inbound-outbound symmetric event at 5 MLT observed by the Cluster CIS/CODIF instrument. The model uses backward phase-space mapping to a boundary at the nightside 8 Earth radii and forward numerical simulation using re-constructed distribution function at that boundary. For both examples, the ion drift model with finite duration (limited to 1-2 hours) of proton source in the nightside can explain the observed large inbound-outbound differences in the sub-keV proton population without any new sources. Ion drift motion is thus able to cause rapid changes of complicated ion populations, at remote places from the source long time after the substorm activities, although this result does not eliminate the possibility of having independent ionospheric sources. References: Yamauchi, M. et al.: Cluster observation of few-hour-scale evolution of structured plasma in the inner magnetosphere, Ann. Geophys., 31, 1569-1578, doi:10.5194/angeo-31-1569-2013, 2013.

Fear and Loving in Las Vegas: Evolution, Emotion, and Persuasion

PubMed Central

Griskevicius, Vladas; Goldstein, Noah J.; Mortensen, Chad R.; Sundie, Jill M.; Cialdini, Robert B.; Kenrick, Douglas T.

2009-01-01

How do arousal-inducing contexts, such as frightening or romantic television programs, influence the effectiveness of basic persuasion heuristics? Different predictions are made by three theoretical models: A general arousal model predicts that arousal should increase effectiveness of heuristics; an affective valence model predicts that effectiveness should depend on whether the context elicits positive or negative affect; an evolutionary model predicts that persuasiveness should depend on both the specific emotion that is elicited and the content of the particular heuristic. Three experiments examined how fear-inducing versus romantic contexts influenced the effectiveness of two widely used heuristics—social proof (e.g., “most popular”) and scarcity (e.g., “limited edition”). Results supported predictions from an evolutionary model, showing that fear can lead scarcity appeals to be counter-persuasive, and that romantic desire can lead social proof appeals to be counter-persuasive. The findings highlight how an evolutionary theoretical approach can lead to novel theoretical and practical marketing insights. PMID:19727416

Risky choice with heuristics: reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and Willemsen (2008), and Rieger and Wang (2008).

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2008-01-01

E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) showed that the priority heuristic matches or outperforms modifications of expected utility theory in predicting choice in 4 diverse problem sets. M. H. Birnbaum (2008) argued that sets exist in which the opposite is true. The authors agree--but stress that all choice strategies have regions of good and bad performance. The accuracy of various strategies systematically depends on choice difficulty, which the authors consider a triggering variable underlying strategy selection. Agreeing with E. J. Johnson, M. Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and M. C. Willemsen (2008) that process (not "as-if") models need to be formulated, the authors show how quantitative predictions can be derived and test them. Finally, they demonstrate that many of Birnbaum's and M. O. Rieger and M. Wang's (2008) case studies championing their preferred models involved biased tests in which the priority heuristic predicted data, whereas the parameterized models were fitted to the same data. The authors propose an adaptive toolbox approach of risky choice, according to which people first seek a no-conflict solution before resorting to conflict-resolving strategies such as the priority heuristic. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Observation of Quasi-Two-Dimensional Nonlinear Interactions in a Drift-Wave Streamer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamada, T.; Nagashima, Y.; Itoh, S.-I.

2010-11-26

A streamer, which is a bunching of drift-wave fluctuations, and its mediator, which generates the streamer by coupling with other fluctuations, have been observed in a cylindrical magnetized plasma. Their radial structures were investigated in detail by using the biphase analysis. Their quasi-two-dimensional structures were revealed to be equivalent with a pair of fast and slow modes predicted by a nonlinear Schroedinger equation based on the Hasegawa-Mima model.

Quantification of the precipitation loss of radiation belt electrons observed by SAMPEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Weichao; Selesnick, Richard; Li, Xinlin; Looper, Mark

2010-07-01

Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth's radiation belt were quantified using a drift diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The drift diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different magnitudes were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ˜0.5-3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storms and at L shells ranging from L = 3.5 to L = 6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). The storms represent a small storm, a moderate storm from the current solar minimum, and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of relativistic electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX-covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron loss for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates, such as the local time and energy dependence that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Selesnick, R. S.; Li, X.; Looper, M. D.

2009-12-01

Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a Drift-Diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drifts and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons detected by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The Drift-Diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different types of magnitude were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ~0.5 to 3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storm and at L shells ranging from L=3.5 to L=6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). They are a small storm and a moderate storm in the current solar minimum and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of energetic radiation belt electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies, over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron lifetimes for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Put a limit on it: The protective effects of scarcity heuristics when self-control is low

PubMed Central

Cheung, Tracy TL; Kroese, Floor M; Fennis, Bob M; De Ridder, Denise TD

2015-01-01

Low self-control is a state in which consumers are assumed to be vulnerable to making impulsive choices that hurt long-term goals. Rather than increasing self-control, the current research exploits the tendency for heuristic-based thinking in low self-control by employing scarcity heuristics to promote better consumption choices. Results indicate that consumers low in self-control especially benefited and selected more healthy choices when marketed as “scarce” (Study 1), and that a demand (vs supply) scarcity heuristic was most effective in promoting utilitarian products (Study 2) suggests low self-control involves both an enhanced reward orientation and increased tendency to conform to descriptive norms. PMID:28070377

Clouds and ocean-atmosphere interactions. Final report, September 15, 1992--September 14, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randall, D.A.; Jensen, T.G.

1995-10-01

Predictions of global change based on climate models are influencing both national and international policies on energy and the environment. Existing climate models show some skill in simulating the present climate, but suffer from many widely acknowledged deficiencies. Among the most serious problems is the need to apply ``flux corrections`` to prevent the models from drifting away from the observed climate in control runs that do not include external perturbing influences such as increased carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentrations. The flux corrections required to prevent climate drift are typically comparable in magnitude to the observed fluxes themselves. Although there canmore » be many contributing reasons for the climate drift problem, clouds and their effects on the surface energy budget are among the prime suspects. The authors have conducted a research program designed to investigate global air-sea interaction as it relates to the global warming problem, with special emphasis on the role of clouds. Their research includes model development efforts; application of models to simulation of present and future climates, with comparison to observations wherever possible; and vigorous participation in ongoing efforts to intercompare the present generation of atmospheric general circulation models.« less

Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauro, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a payload carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at altitudes up to 60,000 ft with the purpose of measuring ocean surface wind speeds and near ocean surface rain rates in hurricanes. The payload includes several components that must maintain steady temperatures throughout the flight. Minimizing the temperature drift of these components allows for accurate data collection and conclusions to be drawn concerning the behavior of hurricanes. HIRad has flown on several different UAVs over the past two years during the fall hurricane season. Based on the data from the 2011 flight, a Thermal Desktop model was created to simulate the payload and reproduce the temperatures. Using this model, recommendations were made to reduce the temperature drift through the use of heaters controlled by resistance temperature detector (RTD) sensors. The suggestions made were implemented for the 2012 hurricane season and further data was collected. The implementation of the heaters reduced the temperature drift for a portion of the flight, but after a period of time, the temperatures rose. With this new flight data, the thermal model was updated and correlated. Detailed analysis was conducted to determine a more effective way to reduce the temperature drift. The final recommendations made were to adjust the set temperatures of the heaters for 2013 flights and implement hardware changes for flights beyond 2013.

Thermal Modeling and Analysis of the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mauro, Stephanie

2013-01-01

The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRad) is a payload carried by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) at altitudes up to 60,000 ft with the purpose of measuring ocean surface wind speeds and near ocean surface rain rates in hurricanes. The payload includes several components that must maintain steady temperatures throughout the flight. Minimizing the temperature drift of these components allows for accurate data collection and conclusions to be drawn concerning the behavior of hurricanes. HIRad has flown on several different UAVs over the past two years during the fall hurricane season. Based on the data from the 2011 flight, a Thermal Desktop model was created to simulate the payload and reproduce the temperatures. Using this model, recommendations were made to reduce the temperature drift through the use of heaters controlled by resistance temperature detector (RTD) sensors. The suggestions made were implemented for the 2012 hurricane season and further data was collected. The implementation of the heaters reduced the temperature drift for a portion of the flight, but after a period of time, the temperatures rose. With this new flight data, the thermal model was updated and correlated. Detailed analysis was conducted to determine a more effective way to reduce the temperature drift. The final recommendations made were to adjust the set temperatures of the heaters for 2013 flights and implement hardware changes for flights beyond 2013.

Incorporating photon recycling into the analytical drift-diffusion model of high efficiency solar cells

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lumb, Matthew P.; Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375; Steiner, Myles A.

The analytical drift-diffusion formalism is able to accurately simulate a wide range of solar cell architectures and was recently extended to include those with back surface reflectors. However, as solar cells approach the limits of material quality, photon recycling effects become increasingly important in predicting the behavior of these cells. In particular, the minority carrier diffusion length is significantly affected by the photon recycling, with consequences for the solar cell performance. In this paper, we outline an approach to account for photon recycling in the analytical Hovel model and compare analytical model predictions to GaAs-based experimental devices operating close tomore » the fundamental efficiency limit.« less

The Use of Recognition in Group Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reimer, Torsten; Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.

2004-01-01

Goldstein and Gigerenzer (2002) [Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. "Psychological Review," 109 (1), 75-90] found evidence for the use of the recognition heuristic. For example, if an individual recognizes only one of two cities, they tend to infer that the recognized city has a larger population. A prediction…

A Heuristic for the Teaching of Persuasion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schell, John F.

Interpreting Aristotle's criteria for persuasive writing--ethos, logos, and pathos--as a concern for writer, language, and audience creates both an effective model for persuasive writing and a structure around which to organize discussions of relevant rhetorical issues. Use of this heuristic to analyze writing style, organization, and content…

Maximizing the nurses' preferences in nurse scheduling problem: mathematical modeling and a meta-heuristic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jafari, Hamed; Salmasi, Nasser

2015-09-01

The nurse scheduling problem (NSP) has received a great amount of attention in recent years. In the NSP, the goal is to assign shifts to the nurses in order to satisfy the hospital's demand during the planning horizon by considering different objective functions. In this research, we focus on maximizing the nurses' preferences for working shifts and weekends off by considering several important factors such as hospital's policies, labor laws, governmental regulations, and the status of nurses at the end of the previous planning horizon in one of the largest hospitals in Iran i.e., Milad Hospital. Due to the shortage of available nurses, at first, the minimum total number of required nurses is determined. Then, a mathematical programming model is proposed to solve the problem optimally. Since the proposed research problem is NP-hard, a meta-heuristic algorithm based on simulated annealing (SA) is applied to heuristically solve the problem in a reasonable time. An initial feasible solution generator and several novel neighborhood structures are applied to enhance performance of the SA algorithm. Inspired from our observations in Milad hospital, random test problems are generated to evaluate the performance of the SA algorithm. The results of computational experiments indicate that the applied SA algorithm provides solutions with average percentage gap of 5.49 % compared to the upper bounds obtained from the mathematical model. Moreover, the applied SA algorithm provides significantly better solutions in a reasonable time than the schedules provided by the head nurses.

Micro-seismic waveform matching inversion based on gravitational search algorithm and parallel computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Y.; Xing, H. L.

2016-12-01

Micro-seismic events induced by water injection, mining activity or oil/gas extraction are quite informative, the interpretation of which can be applied for the reconstruction of underground stress and monitoring of hydraulic fracturing progress in oil/gas reservoirs. The source characterises and locations are crucial parameters that required for these purposes, which can be obtained through the waveform matching inversion (WMI) method. Therefore it is imperative to develop a WMI algorithm with high accuracy and convergence speed. Heuristic algorithm, as a category of nonlinear method, possesses a very high convergence speed and good capacity to overcome local minimal values, and has been well applied for many areas (e.g. image processing, artificial intelligence). However, its effectiveness for micro-seismic WMI is still poorly investigated; very few literatures exits that addressing this subject. In this research an advanced heuristic algorithm, gravitational search algorithm (GSA) , is proposed to estimate the focal mechanism (angle of strike, dip and rake) and source locations in three dimension. Unlike traditional inversion methods, the heuristic algorithm inversion does not require the approximation of green function. The method directly interacts with a CPU parallelized finite difference forward modelling engine, and updating the model parameters under GSA criterions. The effectiveness of this method is tested with synthetic data form a multi-layered elastic model; the results indicate GSA can be well applied on WMI and has its unique advantages. Keywords: Micro-seismicity, Waveform matching inversion, gravitational search algorithm, parallel computation

Response demands and the recruitment of heuristic strategies in syllogistic reasoning.

PubMed

Reverberi, Carlo; Rusconi, Patrice; Paulesu, Eraldo; Cherubini, Paolo

2009-03-01

Two experiments investigated whether dealing with a homogeneous subset of syllogisms with time-constrained responses encouraged participants to develop and use heuristics for abstract (Experiment 1) and thematic (Experiment 2) syllogisms. An atmosphere-based heuristic accounted for most responses with both abstract and thematic syllogisms. With thematic syllogisms, a weaker effect of a belief heuristic was also observed, mainly where the correct response was inconsistent with the atmosphere of the premises. Analytic processes appear to have played little role in the time-constrained condition, whereas their involvement increased in a self-paced, unconstrained condition. From a dual-process perspective, the results further specify how task demands affect the recruitment of heuristic and analytic systems of reasoning. Because the syllogisms and experimental procedure were the same as those used in a previous neuroimaging study by Goel, Buchel, Frith, and Dolan (2000), the result also deepen our understanding of the cognitive processes investigated by that study.

Performance comparison of heuristic algorithms for task scheduling in IaaS cloud computing environment.

PubMed

Madni, Syed Hamid Hussain; Abd Latiff, Muhammad Shafie; Abdullahi, Mohammed; Abdulhamid, Shafi'i Muhammad; Usman, Mohammed Joda

2017-01-01

Cloud computing infrastructure is suitable for meeting computational needs of large task sizes. Optimal scheduling of tasks in cloud computing environment has been proved to be an NP-complete problem, hence the need for the application of heuristic methods. Several heuristic algorithms have been developed and used in addressing this problem, but choosing the appropriate algorithm for solving task assignment problem of a particular nature is difficult since the methods are developed under different assumptions. Therefore, six rule based heuristic algorithms are implemented and used to schedule autonomous tasks in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments with the aim of comparing their performance in terms of cost, degree of imbalance, makespan and throughput. First Come First Serve (FCFS), Minimum Completion Time (MCT), Minimum Execution Time (MET), Max-min, Min-min and Sufferage are the heuristic algorithms considered for the performance comparison and analysis of task scheduling in cloud computing.

Performance comparison of heuristic algorithms for task scheduling in IaaS cloud computing environment

PubMed Central

Madni, Syed Hamid Hussain; Abd Latiff, Muhammad Shafie; Abdullahi, Mohammed; Usman, Mohammed Joda

2017-01-01

Cloud computing infrastructure is suitable for meeting computational needs of large task sizes. Optimal scheduling of tasks in cloud computing environment has been proved to be an NP-complete problem, hence the need for the application of heuristic methods. Several heuristic algorithms have been developed and used in addressing this problem, but choosing the appropriate algorithm for solving task assignment problem of a particular nature is difficult since the methods are developed under different assumptions. Therefore, six rule based heuristic algorithms are implemented and used to schedule autonomous tasks in homogeneous and heterogeneous environments with the aim of comparing their performance in terms of cost, degree of imbalance, makespan and throughput. First Come First Serve (FCFS), Minimum Completion Time (MCT), Minimum Execution Time (MET), Max-min, Min-min and Sufferage are the heuristic algorithms considered for the performance comparison and analysis of task scheduling in cloud computing. PMID:28467505

A health literacy and usability heuristic evaluation of a mobile consumer health application.

PubMed

Monkman, Helen; Kushniruk, Andre

2013-01-01

Usability and health literacy are two critical factors in the design and evaluation of consumer health information systems. However, methods for evaluating these two factors in conjunction remain limited. This study adapted a set of existing guidelines for the design of consumer health Web sites into evidence-based evaluation heuristics tailored specifically for mobile consumer health applications. In order to test the approach, a mobile consumer health application (app) was then evaluated using these heuristics. In addition to revealing ways to improve the usability of the system, this analysis identified opportunities to augment the content to make it more understandable by users with limited health literacy. This study successfully demonstrated the utility of converting existing design guidelines into heuristics for the evaluation of usability and health literacy. The heuristics generated could be applied for assessing and revising other existing consumer health information systems.

Minimizing conflicts: A heuristic repair method for constraint-satisfaction and scheduling problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minton, Steve; Johnston, Mark; Philips, Andrew; Laird, Phil

1992-01-01

This paper describes a simple heuristic approach to solving large-scale constraint satisfaction and scheduling problems. In this approach one starts with an inconsistent assignment for a set of variables and searches through the space of possible repairs. The search can be guided by a value-ordering heuristic, the min-conflicts heuristic, that attempts to minimize the number of constraint violations after each step. The heuristic can be used with a variety of different search strategies. We demonstrate empirically that on the n-queens problem, a technique based on this approach performs orders of magnitude better than traditional backtracking techniques. We also describe a scheduling application where the approach has been used successfully. A theoretical analysis is presented both to explain why this method works well on certain types of problems and to predict when it is likely to be most effective.

Reasoning heuristics across the psychosis continuum: the contribution of hypersalient evidence-hypothesis matches.

PubMed

Balzan, Ryan; Delfabbro, Paul; Galletly, Cherrie; Woodward, Todd

2012-01-01

Hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches has recently been proposed as the cognitive mechanism responsible for the cognitive biases which, in turn, may contribute to the formation and maintenance of delusions. However, the construct lacks empirical support. The current paper investigates the possibility that individuals with delusions are hypersalient to evidence-hypothesis matches using a series of cognitive tasks designed to elicit the representativeness and availability reasoning heuristics. It was hypothesised that hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches may increase a person's propensity to rely on judgements of representativeness (i.e., when the probability of an outcome is based on its similarity with its parent population) and availability (i.e., estimates of frequency based on the ease with which relevant events come to mind). A total of 75 participants (25 diagnosed with schizophrenia with a history of delusions; 25 nonclinical delusion-prone; 25 nondelusion-prone controls) completed four heuristics tasks based on the original Tversky and Kahnemann experiments. These included two representativeness tasks ("coin-toss" random sequence task; "lawyer-engineer" base-rates task) and two availability tasks ("famous-names" and "letter-frequency" tasks). The results across these four heuristics tasks showed that participants with schizophrenia were more susceptible than nonclinical groups to both the representativeness and availability reasoning heuristics. These results suggest that delusional ideation is linked to a hypersalience of evidence-hypothesis matches. The theoretical implications of this cognitive mechanism on the formation and maintenance of delusions are discussed.

Heuristic Evaluation on Mobile Interfaces: A New Checklist

PubMed Central

Yáñez Gómez, Rosa; Cascado Caballero, Daniel; Sevillano, José-Luis

2014-01-01

The rapid evolution and adoption of mobile devices raise new usability challenges, given their limitations (in screen size, battery life, etc.) as well as the specific requirements of this new interaction. Traditional evaluation techniques need to be adapted in order for these requirements to be met. Heuristic evaluation (HE), an Inspection Method based on evaluation conducted by experts over a real system or prototype, is based on checklists which are desktop-centred and do not adequately detect mobile-specific usability issues. In this paper, we propose a compilation of heuristic evaluation checklists taken from the existing bibliography but readapted to new mobile interfaces. Selecting and rearranging these heuristic guidelines offer a tool which works well not just for evaluation but also as a best-practices checklist. The result is a comprehensive checklist which is experimentally evaluated as a design tool. This experimental evaluation involved two software engineers without any specific knowledge about usability, a group of ten users who compared the usability of a first prototype designed without our heuristics, and a second one after applying the proposed checklist. The results of this experiment show the usefulness of the proposed checklist for avoiding usability gaps even with nontrained developers. PMID:25295300

Significance of Shear Wall in Multi-Storey Structure With Seismic Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bongilwar, Rajat; Harne, V. R.; Chopade, Aditya

2018-03-01

In past decades, shear walls are one of the most appropriate and important structural component in multi-storied building. Therefore, it would be very interesting to study the structural response and their systems in multi-storied structure. Shear walls contribute the stiffness and strength during earthquakes which are often neglected during design of structure and construction. This study shows the effect of shear walls which significantly affect the vulnerability of structures. In order to test this hypothesis, G+8 storey building was considered with and without shear walls and analyzed for various parameters like base shear, storey drift ratio, lateral displacement, bending moment and shear force. Significance of shear wall has been studied with the help of two models. First model is without shear wall i.e. bare frame and other another model is with shear wall considering opening also in it. For modeling and analysis of both the models, FEM based software ETABS 2016 were used. The analysis of all models was done using Equivalent static method. The comparison of results has been done based on same parameters like base shear, storey drift ratio, lateral displacement, bending moment and shear force.

The evolutionary dynamics of receptor binding avidity in influenza A: a mathematical model for a new antigenic drift hypothesis

PubMed Central

Yuan, Hsiang-Yu; Koelle, Katia

2013-01-01

The most salient feature of influenza evolution in humans is its antigenic drift. This process is characterized by structural changes in the virus's B-cell epitopes and ultimately results in the ability of the virus to evade immune recognition and thereby reinfect previously infected hosts. Until recently, amino acid substitutions in epitope regions of the viral haemagglutinin were thought to be positively selected for their ability to reduce antibody binding and therefore were thought to be responsible for driving antigenic drift. However, a recent hypothesis put forward by Hensley and co-workers posits that cellular receptor binding avidity is the dominant phenotype under selection, with antigenic drift being a side effect of these binding avidity changes. Here, we present a mathematical formulation of this new antigenic drift model and use it to show how rates of antigenic drift depend on epidemiological parameters. We further use the model to evaluate how two different vaccination strategies can impact antigenic drift rates and ultimately disease incidence levels. Finally, we discuss the assumptions present in the model formulation, predictions of the model, and future work that needs to be done to determine the consistency of this hypothesis with known patterns of influenza's genetic and antigenic evolution. PMID:23382426

An AI-based approach to structural damage identification by modal analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Hanagud, S.

1990-01-01

Flexible-structure damage is presently addressed by a combined model- and parameter-identification approach which employs the AI methodologies of classification, heuristic search, and object-oriented model knowledge representation. The conditions for model-space search convergence to the best model are discussed in terms of search-tree organization and initial model parameter error. In the illustrative example of a truss structure presented, the use of both model and parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than would be required by parameter identification alone.

Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

rationality and is based on a linear, step-based model that generates a specific course of action and is useful for the examination of problems that...exhibit stability and are underpinned by assumptions of “technical- rationality .”5 The Army values MDMP as the sanctioned approach for solving...theory) which sought to describe human behavior as a rational maximization of cost-benefit decisions, Kahne- man and Tversky provided a simple

Fuzzy and neural control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berenji, Hamid R.

1992-01-01

Fuzzy logic and neural networks provide new methods for designing control systems. Fuzzy logic controllers do not require a complete analytical model of a dynamic system and can provide knowledge-based heuristic controllers for ill-defined and complex systems. Neural networks can be used for learning control. In this chapter, we discuss hybrid methods using fuzzy logic and neural networks which can start with an approximate control knowledge base and refine it through reinforcement learning.

Quantitative structure-retention relationship models for the prediction of the reversed-phase HPLC gradient retention based on the heuristic method and support vector machine.

PubMed

Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Yao, Xiaojun; Hu, Zhide

2009-01-01

The heuristic method (HM) and support vector machine (SVM) were used to construct quantitative structure-retention relationship models by a series of compounds to predict the gradient retention times of reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in three different columns. The aims of this investigation were to predict the retention times of multifarious compounds, to find the main properties of the three columns, and to indicate the theory of separation procedures. In our method, we correlated the retention times of many diverse structural analytes in three columns (Symmetry C18, Chromolith, and SG-MIX) with their representative molecular descriptors, calculated from the molecular structures alone. HM was used to select the most important molecular descriptors and build linear regression models. Furthermore, non-linear regression models were built using the SVM method; the performance of the SVM models were better than that of the HM models, and the prediction results were in good agreement with the experimental values. This paper could give some insights into the factors that were likely to govern the gradient retention process of the three investigated HPLC columns, which could theoretically supervise the practical experiment.

Heuristic evaluation of eNote: an electronic notes system.

PubMed

Bright, Tiffani J; Bakken, Suzanne; Johnson, Stephen B

2006-01-01

eNote is an electronic health record (EHR) system based on semi-structured narrative documents. A heuristic evaluation was conducted with a sample of five usability experts. eNote performed highly in: 1)consistency with standards and 2)recognition rather than recall. eNote needs improvement in: 1)help and documentation, 2)aesthetic and minimalist design, 3)error prevention, 4)helping users recognize, diagnosis, and recover from errors, and 5)flexibility and efficiency of use. The heuristic evaluation was an efficient method of evaluating our interface.

SHRIF, a General-Purpose System for Heuristic Retrieval of Information and Facts, Applied to Medical Knowledge Processing.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Findler, Nicholas V.; And Others

1992-01-01

Describes SHRIF, a System for Heuristic Retrieval of Information and Facts, and the medical knowledge base that was used in its development. Highlights include design decisions; the user-machine interface, including the language processor; and the organization of the knowledge base in an artificial intelligence (AI) project like this one. (57…

Impact of time-dependent nonaxisymmetric velocity perturbations on dynamo action of von Kármán-like flows.

PubMed

Giesecke, André; Stefani, Frank; Burguete, Javier

2012-12-01

We present numerical simulations of the kinematic induction equation in order to examine the dynamo efficiency of an axisymmetric von Kármán-like flow subject to time-dependent nonaxisymmetric velocity perturbations. The numerical model is based on the setup of the French von Kármán-sodium dynamo (VKS) and on the flow measurements from a water experiment conducted at the University of Navarra in Pamplona, Spain. The principal experimental observations that are modeled in our simulations are nonaxisymmetric vortexlike structures which perform an azimuthal drift motion in the equatorial plane. Our simulations show that the interactions of these periodic flow perturbations with the fundamental drift of the magnetic eigenmode (including the special case of nondrifting fields) essentially determine the temporal behavior of the dynamo state. We find two distinct regimes of dynamo action that depend on the (prescribed) drift frequency of an (m=2) vortexlike flow perturbation. For comparatively slowly drifting vortices we observe a narrow window with enhanced growth rates and a drift of the magnetic eigenmode that is synchronized with the perturbation drift. The resonance-like enhancement of the growth rates takes place when the vortex drift frequency roughly equals the drift frequency of the magnetic eigenmode in the unperturbed system. Outside of this small window, the field generation is hampered compared to the unperturbed case, and the field amplitude of the magnetic eigenmode is modulated with approximately twice the vortex drift frequency. The abrupt transition between the resonant regime and the modulated regime is identified as a spectral exceptional point where eigenvalues (growth rates and frequencies) and eigenfunctions of two previously independent modes collapse. In the actual configuration the drift frequencies of the velocity perturbations that are observed in the water experiment are much larger than the fundamental drift frequency of the magnetic eigenmode that is obtained from our numerical simulations. Hence, we conclude that the fulfillment of the resonance condition might be unlikely in present day dynamo experiments. However, a possibility to increase the dynamo efficiency in the VKS experiment might be realized by an application of holes or fingers on the outer boundary in the equatorial plane. These mechanical distortions provoke an anchorage of the vortices at fixed positions thus allowing an adjustment of the temporal behavior of the nonaxisymmetric flow perturbations.

A new graph-based method for pairwise global network alignment

PubMed Central

Klau, Gunnar W

2009-01-01

Background In addition to component-based comparative approaches, network alignments provide the means to study conserved network topology such as common pathways and more complex network motifs. Yet, unlike in classical sequence alignment, the comparison of networks becomes computationally more challenging, as most meaningful assumptions instantly lead to NP-hard problems. Most previous algorithmic work on network alignments is heuristic in nature. Results We introduce the graph-based maximum structural matching formulation for pairwise global network alignment. We relate the formulation to previous work and prove NP-hardness of the problem. Based on the new formulation we build upon recent results in computational structural biology and present a novel Lagrangian relaxation approach that, in combination with a branch-and-bound method, computes provably optimal network alignments. The Lagrangian algorithm alone is a powerful heuristic method, which produces solutions that are often near-optimal and – unlike those computed by pure heuristics – come with a quality guarantee. Conclusion Computational experiments on the alignment of protein-protein interaction networks and on the classification of metabolic subnetworks demonstrate that the new method is reasonably fast and has advantages over pure heuristics. Our software tool is freely available as part of the LISA library. PMID:19208162

Approximation algorithms for a genetic diagnostics problem.

PubMed

Kosaraju, S R; Schäffer, A A; Biesecker, L G

1998-01-01

We define and study a combinatorial problem called WEIGHTED DIAGNOSTIC COVER (WDC) that models the use of a laboratory technique called genotyping in the diagnosis of an important class of chromosomal aberrations. An optimal solution to WDC would enable us to define a genetic assay that maximizes the diagnostic power for a specified cost of laboratory work. We develop approximation algorithms for WDC by making use of the well-known problem SET COVER for which the greedy heuristic has been extensively studied. We prove worst-case performance bounds on the greedy heuristic for WDC and for another heuristic we call directional greedy. We implemented both heuristics. We also implemented a local search heuristic that takes the solutions obtained by greedy and dir-greedy and applies swaps until they are locally optimal. We report their performance on a real data set that is representative of the options that a clinical geneticist faces for the real diagnostic problem. Many open problems related to WDC remain, both of theoretical interest and practical importance.

Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

PubMed

Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

2014-05-01

In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Heuristic evaluation of infusion pumps: implications for patient safety in Intensive Care Units.

PubMed

Graham, Mark J; Kubose, Tate K; Jordan, Desmond; Zhang, Jiajie; Johnson, Todd R; Patel, Vimla L

2004-11-01

The goal of this research was to use a heuristic evaluation methodology to uncover design and interface deficiencies of infusion pumps that are currently in use in Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Because these infusion systems cannot be readily replaced due to lease agreements and large-scale institutional purchasing procedures, we argue that it is essential to systematically identify the existing usability problems so that the possible causes of errors can be better understood, passed on to the end-users (e.g., critical care nurses), and used to make policy recommendations. Four raters conducted the heuristic evaluation of the three-channel infusion pump interface. Three raters had a cognitive science background as well as experience with the heuristic evaluation methodology. The fourth rater was a veteran critical care nurse who had extensive experience operating the pumps. The usability experts and the domain expert independently evaluated the user interface and physical design of the infusion pump and generated a list of heuristic violations based upon a set of 14 heuristics developed in previous research. The lists were compiled and then rated on the severity of the violation. From 14 usability heuristics considered in this evaluation of the Infusion Pump, there were 231 violations. Two heuristics, "Consistency" and "Language", were found to have the most violations. The one with fewest violations was "Document". While some heuristic evaluation categories had more violations than others, the most severe ones were not confined to one type. The Primary interface location (e.g., where loading the pump, changing doses, and confirming drug settings takes place) had the most occurrences of heuristic violations. We believe that the Heuristic Evaluation methodology provides a simple and cost-effective approach to discovering medical device deficiencies that affect a patient's general well being. While this methodology provides information for the infusion pump designs of the future, it also identifies important insights concerning equipment that is currently in use in critical care environments.

Algorithm for parametric community detection in networks.

PubMed

Bettinelli, Andrea; Hansen, Pierre; Liberti, Leo

2012-07-01

Modularity maximization is extensively used to detect communities in complex networks. It has been shown, however, that this method suffers from a resolution limit: Small communities may be undetectable in the presence of larger ones even if they are very dense. To alleviate this defect, various modifications of the modularity function have been proposed as well as multiresolution methods. In this paper we systematically study a simple model (proposed by Pons and Latapy [Theor. Comput. Sci. 412, 892 (2011)] and similar to the parametric model of Reichardt and Bornholdt [Phys. Rev. E 74, 016110 (2006)]) with a single parameter α that balances the fraction of within community edges and the expected fraction of edges according to the configuration model. An exact algorithm is proposed to find optimal solutions for all values of α as well as the corresponding successive intervals of α values for which they are optimal. This algorithm relies upon a routine for exact modularity maximization and is limited to moderate size instances. An agglomerative hierarchical heuristic is therefore proposed to address parametric modularity detection in large networks. At each iteration the smallest value of α for which it is worthwhile to merge two communities of the current partition is found. Then merging is performed and the data are updated accordingly. An implementation is proposed with the same time and space complexity as the well-known Clauset-Newman-Moore (CNM) heuristic [Phys. Rev. E 70, 066111 (2004)]. Experimental results on artificial and real world problems show that (i) communities are detected by both exact and heuristic methods for all values of the parameter α; (ii) the dendrogram summarizing the results of the heuristic method provides a useful tool for substantive analysis, as illustrated particularly on a Les Misérables data set; (iii) the difference between the parametric modularity values given by the exact method and those given by the heuristic is moderate; (iv) the heuristic version of the proposed parametric method, viewed as a modularity maximization tool, gives better results than the CNM heuristic for large instances.

Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-26

in which the effective static stability vanishes in rising and sinking regions, the 13 heuristic model yields a poor approximation to the simulated...tilt configuration. However, in the moist-neutral 12 limit, in which the effective static stability vanishes in rising and sinking regions, the 13...larger, leading to more effective 13 damping of the tilt mode (e.g., Schecter and Montgomery 2007; see their Figs. 10 and 11 14 and accompanying

Using decision tree models to depict primary care physicians CRC screening decision heuristics.

PubMed

Wackerbarth, Sarah B; Tarasenko, Yelena N; Curtis, Laurel A; Joyce, Jennifer M; Haist, Steven A

2007-10-01

The purpose of this study was to identify decision heuristics utilized by primary care physicians in formulating colorectal cancer screening recommendations. Qualitative research using in-depth semi-structured interviews. We interviewed 66 primary care internists and family physicians evenly drawn from academic and community practices. A majority of physicians were male, and almost all were white, non-Hispanic. Three researchers independently reviewed each transcript to determine the physician's decision criteria and developed decision trees. Final trees were developed by consensus. The constant comparative methodology was used to define the categories. Physicians were found to use 1 of 4 heuristics ("age 50," "age 50, if family history, then earlier," "age 50, if family history, then screen at age 40," or "age 50, if family history, then adjust relative to reference case") for the timing recommendation and 5 heuristics ["fecal occult blood test" (FOBT), "colonoscopy," "if not colonoscopy, then...," "FOBT and another test," and "a choice between options"] for the type decision. No connection was found between timing and screening type heuristics. We found evidence of heuristic use. Further research is needed to determine the potential impact on quality of care.

Hybridisations of Variable Neighbourhood Search and Modified Simplex Elements to Harmony Search and Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithms for Process Optimisations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aungkulanon, P.; Luangpaiboon, P.

2010-10-01

Nowadays, the engineering problem systems are large and complicated. An effective finite sequence of instructions for solving these problems can be categorised into optimisation and meta-heuristic algorithms. Though the best decision variable levels from some sets of available alternatives cannot be done, meta-heuristics is an alternative for experience-based techniques that rapidly help in problem solving, learning and discovery in the hope of obtaining a more efficient or more robust procedure. All meta-heuristics provide auxiliary procedures in terms of their own tooled box functions. It has been shown that the effectiveness of all meta-heuristics depends almost exclusively on these auxiliary functions. In fact, the auxiliary procedure from one can be implemented into other meta-heuristics. Well-known meta-heuristics of harmony search (HSA) and shuffled frog-leaping algorithms (SFLA) are compared with their hybridisations. HSA is used to produce a near optimal solution under a consideration of the perfect state of harmony of the improvisation process of musicians. A meta-heuristic of the SFLA, based on a population, is a cooperative search metaphor inspired by natural memetics. It includes elements of local search and global information exchange. This study presents solution procedures via constrained and unconstrained problems with different natures of single and multi peak surfaces including a curved ridge surface. Both meta-heuristics are modified via variable neighbourhood search method (VNSM) philosophy including a modified simplex method (MSM). The basic idea is the change of neighbourhoods during searching for a better solution. The hybridisations proceed by a descent method to a local minimum exploring then, systematically or at random, increasingly distant neighbourhoods of this local solution. The results show that the variant of HSA with VNSM and MSM seems to be better in terms of the mean and variance of design points and yields.

Quantifying Heuristic Bias: Anchoring, Availability, and Representativeness.

PubMed

Richie, Megan; Josephson, S Andrew

2018-01-01

Construct: Authors examined whether a new vignette-based instrument could isolate and quantify heuristic bias. Heuristics are cognitive shortcuts that may introduce bias and contribute to error. There is no standardized instrument available to quantify heuristic bias in clinical decision making, limiting future study of educational interventions designed to improve calibration of medical decisions. This study presents validity data to support a vignette-based instrument quantifying bias due to the anchoring, availability, and representativeness heuristics. Participants completed questionnaires requiring assignment of probabilities to potential outcomes of medical and nonmedical scenarios. The instrument randomly presented scenarios in one of two versions: Version A, encouraging heuristic bias, and Version B, worded neutrally. The primary outcome was the difference in probability judgments for Version A versus Version B scenario options. Of 167 participants recruited, 139 enrolled. Participants assigned significantly higher mean probability values to Version A scenario options (M = 9.56, SD = 3.75) than Version B (M = 8.98, SD = 3.76), t(1801) = 3.27, p = .001. This result remained significant analyzing medical scenarios alone (Version A, M = 9.41, SD = 3.92; Version B, M = 8.86, SD = 4.09), t(1204) = 2.36, p = .02. Analyzing medical scenarios by heuristic revealed a significant difference between Version A and B for availability (Version A, M = 6.52, SD = 3.32; Version B, M = 5.52, SD = 3.05), t(404) = 3.04, p = .003, and representativeness (Version A, M = 11.45, SD = 3.12; Version B, M = 10.67, SD = 3.71), t(396) = 2.28, p = .02, but not anchoring. Stratifying by training level, students maintained a significant difference between Version A and B medical scenarios (Version A, M = 9.83, SD = 3.75; Version B, M = 9.00, SD = 3.98), t(465) = 2.29, p = .02, but not residents or attendings. Stratifying by heuristic and training level, availability maintained significance for students (Version A, M = 7.28, SD = 3.46; Version B, M = 5.82, SD = 3.22), t(153) = 2.67, p = .008, and residents (Version A, M = 7.19, SD = 3.24; Version B, M = 5.56, SD = 2.72), t(77) = 2.32, p = .02, but not attendings. Authors developed an instrument to isolate and quantify bias produced by the availability and representativeness heuristics, and illustrated the utility of their instrument by demonstrating decreased heuristic bias within medical contexts at higher training levels.

Restart Operator Meta-heuristics for a Problem-Oriented Evolutionary Strategies Algorithm in Inverse Mathematical MISO Modelling Problem Solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryzhikov, I. S.; Semenkin, E. S.

2017-02-01

This study is focused on solving an inverse mathematical modelling problem for dynamical systems based on observation data and control inputs. The mathematical model is being searched in the form of a linear differential equation, which determines the system with multiple inputs and a single output, and a vector of the initial point coordinates. The described problem is complex and multimodal and for this reason the proposed evolutionary-based optimization technique, which is oriented on a dynamical system identification problem, was applied. To improve its performance an algorithm restart operator was implemented.

Design and Analysis of a Navigation System Using the Federated Filter

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-12-01

There are a number of different sizes for INS states in each Kalman filter. In DKFSIM 3.3, the largest available is the so-called ABIAS model, which...REPRESENTATION PARAMETERS INS States - ABIAS Model 3 Position drifts Linearized propagation driven by ECEF velocity drifts 3 Velocity drifts

Triplet supertree heuristics for the tree of life

PubMed Central

Lin, Harris T; Burleigh, J Gordon; Eulenstein, Oliver

2009-01-01

Background There is much interest in developing fast and accurate supertree methods to infer the tree of life. Supertree methods combine smaller input trees with overlapping sets of taxa to make a comprehensive phylogenetic tree that contains all of the taxa in the input trees. The intrinsically hard triplet supertree problem takes a collection of input species trees and seeks a species tree (supertree) that maximizes the number of triplet subtrees that it shares with the input trees. However, the utility of this supertree problem has been limited by a lack of efficient and effective heuristics. Results We introduce fast hill-climbing heuristics for the triplet supertree problem that perform a step-wise search of the tree space, where each step is guided by an exact solution to an instance of a local search problem. To realize time efficient heuristics we designed the first nontrivial algorithms for two standard search problems, which greatly improve on the time complexity to the best known (naïve) solutions by a factor of n and n2 (the number of taxa in the supertree). These algorithms enable large-scale supertree analyses based on the triplet supertree problem that were previously not possible. We implemented hill-climbing heuristics that are based on our new algorithms, and in analyses of two published supertree data sets, we demonstrate that our new heuristics outperform other standard supertree methods in maximizing the number of triplets shared with the input trees. Conclusion With our new heuristics, the triplet supertree problem is now computationally more tractable for large-scale supertree analyses, and it provides a potentially more accurate alternative to existing supertree methods. PMID:19208181

LIDAR as an alternative to passive collectors to measure pesticide spray drift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, Eduard; Rosell-Polo, Joan R.; Sanz, Ricardo; Rocadenbosch, Francesc; Solanelles, Francesc; Garcerá, Cruz; Chueca, Patricia; Arnó, Jaume; del Moral, Ignacio; Masip, Joan; Camp, Ferran; Viana, Rafael; Escolà, Alexandre; Gràcia, Felip; Planas, Santiago; Moltó, Enrique

2014-01-01

Pesticide spray drift entails a series of risks and costs in terms of human, animal and environmental well-being. A proper understanding of this phenomenon is essential to minimise these risks. However, most conventional methods used in drift measurement are based on point collectors which are unable to obtain information concerning the temporal or spatial evolution of the pesticide cloud. Such methods are also costly, labour-intensive, and require a considerable amount of time. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to measure the spray drift based on lidar (LIght Detection And Ranging) and to prove that it can be an alternative to passive collectors. An analytical model is proposed to relate the measurements obtained through passive collectors and those obtained with lidar systems considering several spray application and meteorological parameters. The model was tested through an experimental campaign involving multiple ground spray tests. A lidar system and two types of passive collectors (nylon strings and water-sensitive paper) were used simultaneously to measure the drift. The results showed for each test a high coefficient of determination (R2 ≈ 0.90) between the lidar signal and the tracer mass captured by the nylon strings. This coefficient decreased (R2 = 0.77) when all tests were considered together. Lidar measurements were also used to study the evolution of the pesticide cloud with high range (1.5 m) and temporal resolution (1 s) and to estimate its velocity. Furthermore, a very satisfactory adjustment (R2 = 0.89) was observed between the tracer mass collected by the nylon lines and the coverage on water-sensitive paper sheets. These results are in accordance with the proposed analytical model and allow the conclusion that the application and meteorological parameters can be considered spatially invariant for a given test but are not invariant for different tests.

Modeling of multi-band drift in nanowires using a full band Monte Carlo simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hathwar, Raghuraj; Saraniti, Marco; Goodnick, Stephen M.

2016-07-01

We report on a new numerical approach for multi-band drift within the context of full band Monte Carlo (FBMC) simulation and apply this to Si and InAs nanowires. The approach is based on the solution of the Krieger and Iafrate (KI) equations [J. B. Krieger and G. J. Iafrate, Phys. Rev. B 33, 5494 (1986)], which gives the probability of carriers undergoing interband transitions subject to an applied electric field. The KI equations are based on the solution of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, and previous solutions of these equations have used Runge-Kutta (RK) methods to numerically solve the KI equations. This approach made the solution of the KI equations numerically expensive and was therefore only applied to a small part of the Brillouin zone (BZ). Here we discuss an alternate approach to the solution of the KI equations using the Magnus expansion (also known as "exponential perturbation theory"). This method is more accurate than the RK method as the solution lies on the exponential map and shares important qualitative properties with the exact solution such as the preservation of the unitary character of the time evolution operator. The solution of the KI equations is then incorporated through a modified FBMC free-flight drift routine and applied throughout the nanowire BZ. The importance of the multi-band drift model is then demonstrated for the case of Si and InAs nanowires by simulating a uniform field FBMC and analyzing the average carrier energies and carrier populations under high electric fields. Numerical simulations show that the average energy of the carriers under high electric field is significantly higher when multi-band drift is taken into consideration, due to the interband transitions allowing carriers to achieve higher energies.

Stokes drift

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Bremer, T. S.; Breivik, Ø.

2017-12-01

During its periodic motion, a particle floating at the free surface of a water wave experiences a net drift velocity in the direction of wave propagation, known as the Stokes drift (Stokes 1847 Trans. Camb. Philos. Soc. 8, 441-455). More generally, the Stokes drift velocity is the difference between the average Lagrangian flow velocity of a fluid parcel and the average Eulerian flow velocity of the fluid. This paper reviews progress in fundamental and applied research on the induced mean flow associated with surface gravity waves since the first description of the Stokes drift, now 170 years ago. After briefly reviewing the fundamental physical processes, most of which have been established for decades, the review addresses progress in laboratory and field observations of the Stokes drift. Despite more than a century of experimental studies, laboratory studies of the mean circulation set up by waves in a laboratory flume remain somewhat contentious. In the field, rapid advances are expected due to increasingly small and cheap sensors and transmitters, making widespread use of small surface-following drifters possible. We also discuss remote sensing of the Stokes drift from high-frequency radar. Finally, the paper discusses the three main areas of application of the Stokes drift: in the coastal zone, in Eulerian models of the upper ocean layer and in the modelling of tracer transport, such as oil and plastic pollution. Future climate models will probably involve full coupling of ocean and atmosphere systems, in which the wave model provides consistent forcing on the ocean surface boundary layer. Together with the advent of new space-borne instruments that can measure surface Stokes drift, such models hold the promise of quantifying the impact of wave effects on the global atmosphere-ocean system and hopefully contribute to improved climate projections. This article is part of the theme issue 'Nonlinear water waves'.

Failure Detection of a Pseudolite-Based Reference System Using Residual Monitoring

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

inertial measurements contain white Gaussian noise, wfins and w ! ins. f bins = f b + abias + w f ins (2.3) !bibins = ! b ib + !bias + w ! ins (2.4) A...type of IMU being used and the length of navigation. For a more accurate model the bias can estimated as a drift, shown as abias and !bias. The drift...to be estimated inside a Kalman lter. _abias = abias T + wabias (2.5) where T is the time constant. The strapdown mechanization for raw inertial

The development of adaptive decision making: Recognition-based inference in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Horn, Sebastian S; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Pachur, Thorsten

2016-09-01

Judgments about objects in the world are often based on probabilistic information (or cues). A frugal judgment strategy that utilizes memory (i.e., the ability to discriminate between known and unknown objects) as a cue for inference is the recognition heuristic (RH). The usefulness of the RH depends on the structure of the environment, particularly the predictive power (validity) of recognition. Little is known about developmental differences in use of the RH. In this study, the authors examined (a) to what extent children and adolescents recruit the RH when making judgments, and (b) around what age adaptive use of the RH emerges. Primary schoolchildren (M = 9 years), younger adolescents (M = 12 years), and older adolescents (M = 17 years) made comparative judgments in task environments with either high or low recognition validity. Reliance on the RH was measured with a hierarchical multinomial model. Results indicated that primary schoolchildren already made systematic use of the RH. However, only older adolescents adaptively adjusted their strategy use between environments and were better able to discriminate between situations in which the RH led to correct versus incorrect inferences. These findings suggest that the use of simple heuristics does not progress unidirectionally across development but strongly depends on the task environment, in line with the perspective of ecological rationality. Moreover, adaptive heuristic inference seems to require experience and a developed base of domain knowledge. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Path Finding for Maximum Value of Information in Multi-Modal Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gjanci, Petrika; Petrioli, Chiara; Basagni, Stefano

Here, we consider underwater multi-modal wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) suitable for applications on submarine surveillance and monitoring, where nodes offload data to a mobile autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) via optical technology, and coordinate using acoustic communication. Sensed data are associated with a value, decaying in time. In this scenario, we address the problem of finding the path of the AUV so that the Value of Information (VoI) of the data delivered to a sink on the surface is maximized. We define a Greedy and Adaptive AUV Path-finding (GAAP) heuristic that drives the AUV to collect data from nodes depending onmore » the VoI of their data. For benchmarking the performance of AUV path-finding heuristics, we define an integer linear programming (ILP) formulation that accurately models the considered scenario, deriving a path that drives the AUV to collect and deliver data with the maximum VoI. In our experiments GAAP consistently delivers more than 80 percent of the theoretical maximum VoI determined by the ILP model. We also compare the performance of GAAP with that of other strategies for driving the AUV among sensing nodes, namely, random paths, TSP-based paths and a “lawn mower”-like strategy. Our results show that GAAP always outperforms every other heuristic in terms of delivered VoI, also obtaining higher energy efficiency.« less

Path Finding for Maximum Value of Information in Multi-Modal Underwater Wireless Sensor Networks

DOE PAGES

Gjanci, Petrika; Petrioli, Chiara; Basagni, Stefano; ...

2017-05-19

Here, we consider underwater multi-modal wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) suitable for applications on submarine surveillance and monitoring, where nodes offload data to a mobile autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) via optical technology, and coordinate using acoustic communication. Sensed data are associated with a value, decaying in time. In this scenario, we address the problem of finding the path of the AUV so that the Value of Information (VoI) of the data delivered to a sink on the surface is maximized. We define a Greedy and Adaptive AUV Path-finding (GAAP) heuristic that drives the AUV to collect data from nodes depending onmore » the VoI of their data. For benchmarking the performance of AUV path-finding heuristics, we define an integer linear programming (ILP) formulation that accurately models the considered scenario, deriving a path that drives the AUV to collect and deliver data with the maximum VoI. In our experiments GAAP consistently delivers more than 80 percent of the theoretical maximum VoI determined by the ILP model. We also compare the performance of GAAP with that of other strategies for driving the AUV among sensing nodes, namely, random paths, TSP-based paths and a “lawn mower”-like strategy. Our results show that GAAP always outperforms every other heuristic in terms of delivered VoI, also obtaining higher energy efficiency.« less

Compensatory Reading among ESL Learners: A Reading Strategy Heuristic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ismail, Shaik Abdul Malik Mohamed; Petras, Yusof Ede; Mohamed, Abdul Rashid; Eng, Lin Siew

2015-01-01

This paper aims to gain an insight to the relationship of two different concepts about reading comprehension, namely, the linear model of comprehension and the interactive compensatory theory. Drawing on both the above concepts, a heuristic was constructed about three different reading strategies determined by the specific ways the literal,…

Heuristics: A Step Toward Getting There.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, G. Ernest, Jr.

This paper describes a series of heuristic approaches to helping schools analyze problems by the use of a teletype time-sharing computer terminal. The examples detailed include 1) a Delphi exercise for students; 2) a budgeting model which examines the results of various levels of funding and of changes of relative priorities; 3) a school…

Scientific Message Translation and the Heuristic Systematic Model: Insights for Designing Educational Messages About Progesterone and Breast Cancer Risks

PubMed Central

Perrault, Evan; Smith, Sandi; Keating, David M.; Nazione, Samantha; Silk, Kami; Russell, Jessica

2017-01-01

Results of ongoing scientific research on environmental determinants of breast cancer are not typically presented to the public in ways they can easily understand and use to take preventive actions. In this study, results of scientific studies on progesterone exposure as a risk factor for breast cancer were translated into high and low literacy level messages. Using the heuristic systematic model, this study examined how ability, motivation, and message processing (heuristic and systematic) influenced perceptions of risk beliefs and negative attitudes about progesterone exposure among women who read the translated scientific messages. Among the 1254 participants, those given the higher literacy level message had greater perceptions of risk about progesterone. Heuristic message cues of source credibility and perceived message quality, as well as motivation, also predicted risk beliefs. Finally, risk beliefs were a strong predictor of negative attitudes about exposure to progesterone. The results can help improve health education message design in terms of practitioners having better knowledge of message features that are the most persuasive to the target audiences on this topic. PMID:25903053

The normalization heuristic: an untested hypothesis that may misguide medical decisions.

PubMed

Aberegg, Scott K; O'Brien, James M

2009-06-01

Medical practice is increasingly informed by the evidence from randomized controlled trials. When such evidence is not available, clinical hypotheses based on pathophysiological reasoning and common sense guide clinical decision making. One commonly utilized general clinical hypothesis is the assumption that normalizing abnormal laboratory values and physiological parameters will lead to improved patient outcomes. We refer to the general use of this clinical hypothesis to guide medical therapeutics as the "normalization heuristic". In this paper, we operationally define this heuristic and discuss its limitations as a rule of thumb for clinical decision making. We review historical and contemporaneous examples of normalization practices as empirical evidence for the normalization heuristic and to highlight its frailty as a guide for clinical decision making.

A comparative study of the A* heuristic search algorithm used to solve efficiently a puzzle game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iordan, A. E.

2018-01-01

The puzzle game presented in this paper consists in polyhedra (prisms, pyramids or pyramidal frustums) which can be moved using the free available spaces. The problem requires to be found the minimum number of movements in order the game reaches to a goal configuration starting from an initial configuration. Because the problem is enough complex, the principal difficulty in solving it is given by dimension of search space, that leads to necessity of a heuristic search. The improving of the search method consists into determination of a strong estimation by the heuristic function which will guide the search process to the most promising side of the search tree. The comparative study is realized among Manhattan heuristic and the Hamming heuristic using A* search algorithm implemented in Java. This paper also presents the necessary stages in object oriented development of a software used to solve efficiently this puzzle game. The modelling of the software is achieved through specific UML diagrams representing the phases of analysis, design and implementation, the system thus being described in a clear and practical manner. With the purpose to confirm the theoretical results which demonstrates that Manhattan heuristic is more efficient was used space complexity criterion. The space complexity was measured by the number of generated nodes from the search tree, by the number of the expanded nodes and by the effective branching factor. From the experimental results obtained by using the Manhattan heuristic, improvements were observed regarding space complexity of A* algorithm versus Hamming heuristic.

Fourth Graders' Heuristic Problem-Solving Behavior.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Kil S.

1982-01-01

Eight boys and eight girls from a rural elementary school participated in the investigation. Specific heuristics were adopted from Polya; and the students selected represented two substages of Piaget's concrete operational stage. Five hypotheses were generated, based on observed results and the study's theoretical rationale. (MP)

Disturbance zonal and vertical plasma drifts in the Peruvian sector during solar minimum phases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, A. M.; Abdu, M. A.; Souza, J. R.; Sobral, J. H. A.; Batista, I. S.

2016-03-01

In the present work, we investigate the behavior of the equatorial F region zonal plasma drifts over the Peruvian region under magnetically disturbed conditions during two solar minimum epochs, one of them being the recent prolonged solar activity minimum. The study utilizes the vertical and zonal components of the plasma drifts measured by the Jicamarca (11.95°S; 76.87°W) incoherent scatter radar during two events that occurred on 10 April 1997 and 24 June 2008 and model calculation of the zonal drift in a realistic ionosphere simulated by the Sheffield University Plasmasphere-Ionosphere Model-INPE. Two main points are focused: (1) the connection between electric fields and plasma drifts under prompt penetration electric field during a disturbed periods and (2) anomalous behavior of daytime zonal drift in the absence of any magnetic storm. A perfect anticorrelation between vertical and zonal drifts was observed during the night and in the initial and growth phases of the magnetic storm. For the first time, based on a realistic low-latitude ionosphere, we will show, on a detailed quantitative basis, that this anticorrelation is driven mainly by a vertical Hall electric field induced by the primary zonal electric field in the presence of an enhanced nighttime E region ionization. It is shown that an increase in the field line-integrated Hall-to-Pedersen conductivity ratio (∑H/∑P), which can arise from precipitation of energetic particles in the region of the South American Magnetic Anomaly, is capable of explaining the observed anticorrelation between the vertical and zonal plasma drifts. Evidence for the particle ionization is provided from the occurrence of anomalous sporadic E layers over the low-latitude station, Cachoeira Paulista (22.67°S; 44.9°W)—Brazil. It will also be shown that the zonal plasma drift reversal to eastward in the afternoon two hours earlier than its reference quiet time pattern is possibly caused by weakening of the zonal wind system during the prolonged solar minimum period.

Monitoring scale scores over time via quality control charts, model-based approaches, and time series techniques.

PubMed

Lee, Yi-Hsuan; von Davier, Alina A

2013-07-01

Maintaining a stable score scale over time is critical for all standardized educational assessments. Traditional quality control tools and approaches for assessing scale drift either require special equating designs, or may be too time-consuming to be considered on a regular basis with an operational test that has a short time window between an administration and its score reporting. Thus, the traditional methods are not sufficient to catch unusual testing outcomes in a timely manner. This paper presents a new approach for score monitoring and assessment of scale drift. It involves quality control charts, model-based approaches, and time series techniques to accommodate the following needs of monitoring scale scores: continuous monitoring, adjustment of customary variations, identification of abrupt shifts, and assessment of autocorrelation. Performance of the methodologies is evaluated using manipulated data based on real responses from 71 administrations of a large-scale high-stakes language assessment.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A MECHANISTIC GROUND SPRAYER MODEL

EPA Science Inventory

In the last ten years the Spray Drift Task Force (SDTF), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), USDA Agricultural Research Service, and USDA Forest Service cooperated in the refinement and evaluation of a mechanistically-based aerial spray model (contained within AGDISP and ...

Operational Planning of Channel Airlift Missions Using Forecasted Demand

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

tailored to the specific problem ( Metaheuristics , 2005). As seen in the section Cargo Loading Algorithm , heuristic methods are often iterative...that are equivalent to the forecasted cargo amount. The simulated pallets are then used in a heuristic cargo loading algorithm . The loading... algorithm places cargo onto available aircraft (based on real schedules) given the date and the destination and outputs statistics based on the aircraft ton

A Simulation of Readiness-Based Sparing Policies

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the...available in the optimization tools. 14. SUBJECT TERMS readiness-based sparing, discrete event simulation, optimization, multi-indenture...variant of a greedy heuristic algorithm to set stock levels and estimate overall WS availability. Our discrete event simulation is then used to test the

Comparison of ionospheric plasma drifts obtained by different techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kouba, Daniel; Arikan, Feza; Arikan, Orhan; Toker, Cenk; Mosna, Zbysek; Gok, Gokhan; Rejfek, Lubos; Ari, Gizem

2016-07-01

Ionospheric observatory in Pruhonice (Czech Republic, 50N, 14.9E) provides regular ionospheric sounding using Digisonde DPS-4D. The paper is focused on F-region vertical drift data. Vertical component of the drift velocity vector can be estimated by several methods. Digisonde DPS-4D allows sounding in drift mode with direct output represented by drift velocity vector. The Digisonde located in Pruhonice provides direct drift measurement routinely once per 15 minutes. However, also other different techniques can be found in the literature, for example the indirect estimation based on the temporal evolution of measured ionospheric characteristics is often used for calculation of the vertical drift component. The vertical velocity is thus estimated according to the change of characteristics scaled from the classical quarter-hour ionograms. In present paper direct drift measurement is compared with technique based on measuring of the virtual height at fixed frequency from the F-layer trace on ionogram, technique based on variation of h`F and hmF. This comparison shows possibility of using different methods for calculating vertical drift velocity and their relationship to the direct measurement used by Digisonde. This study is supported by the Joint TUBITAK 114E092 and AS CR 14/001 projects.

Simulation of ventilation efficiency, and pre-closure temperatures in emplacement drifts at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, using Monte Carlo and composite thermal-pulse methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Case, J.B.; Buesch, D.C.

2004-01-01

Predictions of waste canister and repository driftwall temperatures as functions of space and time are important to evaluate pre-closure performance of the proposed repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Variations in the lithostratigraphic features in densely welded and crystallized rocks of the 12.8-million-year-old Topopah Spring Tuff, especially the porosity resulting from lithophysal cavities, affect thermal properties. A simulated emplacement drift is based on projecting lithophysal cavity porosity values 50 to 800 m from the Enhanced Characterization of the Repository Block cross drift. Lithophysal cavity porosity varies from 0.00 to 0.05 cm3/cm3 in the middle nonlithophysal zone and from 0.03 to 0.28 cm3/cm3 in the lower lithophysal zone. A ventilation model and computer program titled "Monte Carlo Simulation of Ventilation" (MCSIMVENT), which is based on a composite thermal-pulse calculation, simulates statistical variability and uncertainty of rock-mass thermal properties and ventilation performance along a simulated emplacement drift for a pre-closure period of 50 years. Although ventilation efficiency is relatively insensitive to thermal properties, variations in lithophysal porosity along the drift can result in a range of peak driftwall temperatures can range from 40 to 85??C for the preclosure period. Copyright ?? 2004 by ASME.

Structural drift: the population dynamics of sequential learning.

PubMed

Crutchfield, James P; Whalen, Sean

2012-01-01

We introduce a theory of sequential causal inference in which learners in a chain estimate a structural model from their upstream "teacher" and then pass samples from the model to their downstream "student". It extends the population dynamics of genetic drift, recasting Kimura's selectively neutral theory as a special case of a generalized drift process using structured populations with memory. We examine the diffusion and fixation properties of several drift processes and propose applications to learning, inference, and evolution. We also demonstrate how the organization of drift process space controls fidelity, facilitates innovations, and leads to information loss in sequential learning with and without memory.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Arctic sea ice: A comparison between AO-FVCOM and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Gao, Guoping; Qi, Jianhua; Lin, Huichan

2016-11-01

A high-resolution (up to 2 km), unstructured-grid, fully ice-sea coupled Arctic Ocean Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (AO-FVCOM) was used to simulate the sea ice in the Arctic over the period 1978-2014. The spatial-varying horizontal model resolution was designed to better resolve both topographic and baroclinic dynamics scales over the Arctic slope and narrow straits. The model-simulated sea ice was in good agreement with available observed sea ice extent, concentration, drift velocity and thickness, not only in seasonal and interannual variability but also in spatial distribution. Compared with six other Arctic Ocean models (ECCO2, GSFC, INMOM, ORCA, NAME, and UW), the AO-FVCOM-simulated ice thickness showed a higher mean correlation coefficient of ˜0.63 and a smaller residual with observations. Model-produced ice drift speed and direction errors varied with wind speed: the speed and direction errors increased and decreased as the wind speed increased, respectively. Efforts were made to examine the influences of parameterizations of air-ice external and ice-water interfacial stresses on the model-produced bias. The ice drift direction was more sensitive to air-ice drag coefficients and turning angles than the ice drift speed. Increasing or decreasing either 10% in water-ice drag coefficient or 10° in water-ice turning angle did not show a significant influence on the ice drift velocity simulation results although the sea ice drift speed was more sensitive to these two parameters than the sea ice drift direction. Using the COARE 4.0-derived parameterization of air-water drag coefficient for wind stress did not significantly influence the ice drift velocity simulation.

Age scatter in cosmogenic exposure-age chronologies in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: implications for regional glacial history and sampling strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanger, K. M.; Schaefer, J. M.; Winckler, G.; Lamp, J. L.; Marchant, D. R.

2016-12-01

Based on surface exposure dating of moraines and drifts, East Antarctic outlet glaciers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) advanced during the mid-Pliocene and/or early-Pleistocene. However, scatter in exposure ages is common for these deposits (and other glacial drifts throughout Antarctica), making it difficult to tie glacial advances to specific climate intervals. In order to constrain the sources of scatter, we mapped and dated 15 cold-based drifts in Taylor Valley and the Olympus Range in the MDV. A secondary goal was to build a regional climate record, for comparison with fluctuations of the local outlet glaciers. Our alpine drift record is confined to the late-Pleistocene, with glacial advances during interglacial periods. Based on 54 3He exposure dates on alpine drifts, age scatter is common in the MDV on both recent and ancient deposits. Where it occurs, age scatter is likely caused by inheritance of cosmogenic nuclides previous to glacial entrainment and stacking of multiple cold-based drifts. Nuclide inheritance of >1 Myr is possible, but this is relatively rare and confined to regions where englacial debris is sourced from stable, high-elevation plateaus. On the other hand, drifts associated with glaciers bound by steep cirque headwalls and arêtes exhibit significantly less age scatter. Given the cold-based nature of MDV alpine and outlet glaciers, deposition of multiple stacked drift sheets also contributes to age scatter, with the implication that it might be possible to date multiple advances of cold-based ice. These results serve to inform better sampling strategies on cold-based drifts throughout Antarctica.

Silicon drift detector based X-ray spectroscopy diagnostic system for the study of non-thermal electrons at Aditya tokamak.

PubMed

Purohit, S; Joisa, Y S; Raval, J V; Ghosh, J; Tanna, R; Shukla, B K; Bhatt, S B

2014-11-01

Silicon drift detector based X-ray spectrometer diagnostic was developed to study the non-thermal electron for Aditya tokamak plasma. The diagnostic was mounted on a radial mid plane port at the Aditya. The objective of diagnostic includes the estimation of the non-thermal electron temperature for the ohmically heated plasma. Bi-Maxwellian plasma model was adopted for the temperature estimation. Along with that the study of high Z impurity line radiation from the ECR pre-ionization experiments was also aimed. The performance and first experimental results from the new X-ray spectrometer system are presented.