[Injury mechanisms in extreme violence settings].

PubMed

Arcaute-Velazquez, Fernando Federico; García-Núñez, Luis Manuel; Noyola-Vilallobos, Héctor Faustino; Espinoza-Mercado, Fernando; Rodríguez-Vega, Carlos Eynar

2016-01-01

Extreme violence events are consequence of current world-wide economic, political and social conditions. Injury patterns found among victims of extreme violence events are very complex, obeying several high-energy injury mechanisms. In this article, we present the basic concepts of trauma kinematics that regulate the clinical approach to victims of extreme violence events, in the hope that clinicians increase their theoretical armamentarium, and reflecting on obtaining better outcomes. Copyright © 2016. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A.

Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Possible Consequences For The Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinrich, H.

2017-12-01

Heinrich Events: An Unintentional Discovery And Its Possible Consequences For The FutureIn the mid 80ties an environmental impact assessment in relation to deep-sea dumping of medium-to-high level radioactive waste was carried out in the eastern margins of the Mid Atlantic Ridge next to the Bay of Biscaye. In one of the box corers recovered for radionuclide analysis a volcanic rock was found that triggered interest because of an unexpected geochemical feature on its surface. Subsequent investigations on the bordering sediment layer revealed hints on a massive ice rafting event possibly released from rapidly collapsing circum-Atlantic ice shields. The search for more of these events in numerous sediment cores exhibited a total of 11 layers since the end of the Saalian/Illinoian glaciation (OIS 6/5 to 2/1). The six events identified in the period OIS 4 to 2 indicated oceanographic conditions in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean that were different to those that prevailed during most time of this glacial period. Later, several authors proposed mechanisms that could have triggered the collapses, e.g. the Binge-Purge model (MacAyeal, 1993) or, access of relatively warm water to the grounding lines in conjunction with isostatic movements (Bassis, 2017). One of the consequences of rapid ice shield collapses is sea level rise. Paleo data report rates of up to several meters per century over a period of several centuries. The process described by Bassis et al. resembles to what nowadays can be observed along the ice margins of Greenland and the Antarctic where (man-made) warmed ocean water attacks the grounding lines. If this initiates something similar to a Heinrich event this is of widespread consequence for coasts, from displacement of populations to marine pollution. Thus, research on past Heinrich Events is important for understanding the future developments of the existing ice shields and climate change.

Major wildfires at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anders, Edward; Wolbach, Wendy S.; Gilmour, Iain

1991-01-01

The current status of the reconstruction of major biomass fire events at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary is discussed. Attention is given to the sources of charcoal and soot, the identification of biomass and fossil carbon, and such ignition-related problems as delated fires, high atmospheric O2 content, ignition mechanisms, and the greenhouse-effect consequences of fire on the scale envisioned. Consequences of these factors for species extinction patterns are noted.

Cross-modal and modality-specific expectancy effects between pain and disgust

PubMed Central

Sharvit, Gil; Vuilleumier, Patrik; Delplanque, Sylvain; Corradi-Dell’ Acqua, Corrado

2015-01-01

Pain sensitivity increases when a noxious stimulus is preceded by cues predicting higher intensity. However, it is unclear whether the modulation of nociception by expectancy is sensory-specific (“modality based”) or reflects the aversive-affective consequence of the upcoming event (“unpleasantness”), potentially common with other negative events. Here we compared expectancy effects for pain and disgust by using different, but equally unpleasant, nociceptive (thermal) and olfactory stimulations. Indeed both pain and disgust are aversive, associated with threat to the organism, and processed in partly overlapping brain networks. Participants saw cues predicting the unpleasantness (high/low) and the modality (pain/disgust) of upcoming thermal or olfactory stimulations, and rated the associated unpleasantness after stimuli delivery. Results showed that identical thermal stimuli were perceived as more unpleasant when preceded by cues threatening about high (as opposed to low) pain. A similar expectancy effect was found for olfactory disgust. Critically, cross-modal expectancy effects were observed on inconsistent trials when thermal stimuli were preceded by high-disgust cues or olfactory stimuli preceded by high-pain cues. However, these effects were stronger in consistent than inconsistent conditions. Taken together, our results suggest that expectation of an unpleasant event elicits representations of both its modality-specific properties and its aversive consequences. PMID:26631975

Development of structural vulnerability curve associated with high magnitude torrent occurrences in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Bründl, Michael; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

In mountain regions, high economic losses have increased significantly in the past decades due to severe hazard processes, in spite of notable investments in hazard management. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to high magnitude torrent events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. While vulnerability curves have been developed for different countries, the presented work contributes new data from Swiss-based case studies that address a known gap associated with the consequences of high magnitude events. Data for this stage of the investigation communicates the degree of loss associated with affected structures and has been provided by local authorities dealing with natural hazards (e.g. Amt für Wald des Kantons Bern (KAWA) and cantonal insurance providers). Information used for the empirical quantification of vulnerability to torrent processes is derived from detailed post-event documentation and the loss database and verified with field visits. Building the initial database supports data sharing and the systematic inclusion of additional case studies as they become available. The collection of this new data is fundamental to the development of a local vulnerability curve based on observed sediment deposition heights, a proxy for describing hazard intensity. The result will then be compared to curves derived from Austrian and Italian datasets.

Use of ultraviolet-fluorescence-based simulation in evaluation of personal protective equipment worn for first assessment and care of a patient with suspected high-consequence infectious disease.

PubMed

Hall, S; Poller, B; Bailey, C; Gregory, S; Clark, R; Roberts, P; Tunbridge, A; Poran, V; Evans, C; Crook, B

2018-06-01

Variations currently exist across the UK in the choice of personal protective equipment (PPE) used by healthcare workers when caring for patients with suspected high-consequence infectious diseases (HCIDs). To test the protection afforded to healthcare workers by current PPE ensembles during assessment of a suspected HCID case, and to provide an evidence base to justify proposal of a unified PPE ensemble for healthcare workers across the UK. One 'basic level' (enhanced precautions) PPE ensemble and five 'suspected case' PPE ensembles were evaluated in volunteer trials using 'Violet'; an ultraviolet-fluorescence-based simulation exercise to visualize exposure/contamination events. Contamination was photographed and mapped. There were 147 post-simulation and 31 post-doffing contamination events, from a maximum of 980, when evaluating the basic level of PPE. Therefore, this PPE ensemble did not afford adequate protection, primarily due to direct contamination of exposed areas of the skin. For the five suspected case ensembles, 1584 post-simulation contamination events were recorded, from a maximum of 5110. Twelve post-doffing contamination events were also observed (face, two events; neck, one event; forearm, one event; lower legs, eight events). All suspected case PPE ensembles either had post-doffing contamination events or other significant disadvantages to their use. This identified the need to design a unified PPE ensemble and doffing procedure, incorporating the most protective PPE considered for each body area. This work has been presented to, and reviewed by, key stakeholders to decide on a proposed unified ensemble, subject to further evaluation. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Centenarians and supercentenarians: a black swan. Emerging social, medical and surgical problems.

PubMed

Vacante, Marco; D'Agata, Velia; Motta, Massimo; Malaguarnera, Giulia; Biondi, Antonio; Basile, Francesco; Malaguarnera, Michele; Gagliano, Caterina; Drago, Filippo; Salamone, Salvatore

2012-01-01

The Black Swan Theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book "The Black Swan". This theory refers to "high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations". According to Taleb's criteria, a Black Swan Event is a surprise, it has a major impact and after the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected. For most of human history centenarians were a rare and unpredictable phenomenon. The improvements of the social-environmental conditions, of medical care, and the quality of life caused a general improvement of the health status of the population and a consequent reduction of the overall morbidity and mortality, resulting in an overall increase of life expectancy. The study of centenarians and supercentenarians had the objective to consider this black swan and to evaluate the health, welfare, social and economic consequences of this phenomenon.

Centenarians and supercentenarians: a black swan. Emerging social, medical and surgical problems

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

The Black Swan Theory was described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan”. This theory refers to “high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond the realm of normal expectations”. According to Taleb’s criteria, a Black Swan Event is a surprise, it has a major impact and after the fact, the event is rationalized by hindsight, as if it had been expected. For most of human history centenarians were a rare and unpredictable phenomenon. The improvements of the social-environmental conditions, of medical care, and the quality of life caused a general improvement of the health status of the population and a consequent reduction of the overall morbidity and mortality, resulting in an overall increase of life expectancy. The study of centenarians and supercentenarians had the objective to consider this black swan and to evaluate the health, welfare, social and economic consequences of this phenomenon. PMID:23173707

International year of planet earth 7. Oceans, submarine land-slides and consequent tsunamis in Canada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mosher, D.C.

2009-01-01

Canada has the longest coastline and largest continental margin of any nation in the World. As a result, it is more likely than other nations to experience marine geohazards such as submarine landslides and consequent tsunamis. Coastal landslides represent a specific threat because of their possible proximity to societal infrastructure and high tsunami potential; they occur without warning and with little time lag between failure and tsunami impact. Continental margin landslides are common in the geologic record but rare on human timescales. Some ancient submarine landslides are massive but more recent events indicate that even relatively small slides on continental margins can generate devastating tsunamis. Tsunami impact can occur hundreds of km away from the source event, and with less than 2 hours warning. Identification of high-potential submarine landslide regions, combined with an understanding of landslide and tsunami processes and sophisticated tsunami propagation models, are required to identify areas at high risk of impact.

When Siberia came to the Netherlands: The response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Senner, Nathan R.; Verhoeven, Mo A.; Abad-Gómez, José M.; Gutiérrez, Jorge S.; Hooijmeijer, Jos C. E. W.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Masero, José A.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Piersma, Theunis

2015-01-01

This suggests that populations with continued access to food, behavioural flexibility and time to dissipate the costs of the event can likely withstand the consequences of an extreme weather event. For populations constrained in one of these respects, though, extreme events may entail extreme ecological consequences.

Consequence-driven cyber-informed engineering (CCE)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freeman, Sarah G.; St Michel, Curtis; Smith, Robert

The Idaho National Lab (INL) is leading a high-impact, national security-level initiative to reprioritize the way the nation looks at high-consequence risk within the industrial control systems (ICS) environment of the country’s most critical infrastructure and other national assets. The Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) effort provides both private and public organizations with the steps required to examine their own environments for high-impact events/risks; identify implementation of key devices and components that facilitate that risk; illuminate specific, plausible cyber attack paths to manipulate these devices; and develop concrete mitigations, protections, and tripwires to address the high-consequence risk. The ultimate goal ofmore » the CCE effort is to help organizations take the steps necessary to thwart cyber attacks from even top-tier, highly resourced adversaries that would result in a catastrophic physical effect. CCE participants are encouraged to work collaboratively with each other and with key U.S. Government (USG) contributors to establish a coalition, maximizing the positive effect of lessons-learned and further contributing to the protection of critical infrastructure and other national assets.« less

Cost analysis of youth violence prevention.

PubMed

Sharp, Adam L; Prosser, Lisa A; Walton, Maureen; Blow, Frederic C; Chermack, Stephen T; Zimmerman, Marc A; Cunningham, Rebecca

2014-03-01

Effective violence interventions are not widely implemented, and there is little information about the cost of violence interventions. Our goal is to report the cost of a brief intervention delivered in the emergency department that reduces violence among 14- to 18-year-olds. Primary outcomes were total costs of implementation and the cost per violent event or violence consequence averted. We used primary and secondary data sources to derive the costs to implement a brief motivational interviewing intervention and to identify the number of self-reported violent events (eg, severe peer aggression, peer victimization) or violence consequences averted. One-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses were performed. Total fixed and variable annual costs were estimated at $71,784. If implemented, 4208 violent events or consequences could be prevented, costing $17.06 per event or consequence averted. Multi-way sensitivity analysis accounting for variable intervention efficacy and different cost estimates resulted in a range of $3.63 to $54.96 per event or consequence averted. Our estimates show that the cost to prevent an episode of youth violence or its consequences is less than the cost of placing an intravenous line and should not present a significant barrier to implementation.

Instructional practices at Farm Safety 4 Just Kids (FS4JK) safety day camps.

PubMed

Mazur, J M; Cole, H P; Reed, D; Claunch, D

2005-05-01

The instructional methods used with 1,347 youth in seven Farm Safety 4 Just Kids (FS4JK) day camp sessions conducted in five states during the summer and fall of 2002 were videotaped. The videotapes, instructor questionnaires, and day camp materials were analyzed using an observation protocol that focused on instructional practices and an interaction analysis of instructor-student talk during the sessions. Results showed that instruction focused on hazard recognition, a high level of participant attention during all the sessions observed, and safety day camp content relevant to rural participants regardless of whether they live or work on a farm. Recommendations for improving instructional practice include better use of print materials, more interactive, participatory activities for students, and reduction of instructor-centered, didactic approaches. Given the high level of students' attention, increased involvement of students in active, participatory approaches might enhance the effectiveness of the instruction by: (1) further engaging students through personalizing hazard recognition, (2) contextualizing reports of injuries, (3) examining the complexities of choosing safe behaviors, and (4) paying more attention to the consequences of injury events. Role-playing, narrative simulations, and other types of interactive and collaborative exercises are instructional approaches that support the inclusion of the pre-event contingencies and post-event consequences that are part of all injury events.

Risks from Solar Particle Events for Long Duration Space Missions Outside Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Over, S.; Myers, J.; Ford, J.

2016-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) simulates the medical occurrences and mission outcomes for various mission profiles using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. As part of the work with the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), this project focuses on radiation risks from acute events during extended human missions outside low Earth orbit (LEO). Of primary importance in acute risk assessment are solar particle events (SPEs), which are low probability, high consequence events that could adversely affect mission outcomes through acute radiation damage to astronauts. SPEs can be further classified into coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares/impulsive events (Fig. 1). CMEs are an eruption of solar material and have shock enhancements that contribute to make these types of events higher in total fluence than impulsive events.

[The application of ecological momentary assessment to the study of compulsive buying].

PubMed

Silbermann, Andrea; Henkel, Andreas; Müller, Astrid; de Zwaan, Martina

2008-12-01

Although compulsive buying is a disorder that has begun to receive attention from researchers in recent years, relatively little is known about the relationship between compulsive buying, mood, and daily stressful events. In our pilot study ecological momentary assessment (EMA) was used to examine the described relationships for the first time. 26 patients, who met criteria for compulsive buying, self-monitored their pathological behaviour, their momentary mood and the occurrence of stressful events four times a day on a handheld computer for a period of two weeks. On days with excessive buying behaviour patients reported significantly more daily stressful events compared to days without pathological buying. Before the buying episode patients recorded significantly more positive emotions. The most common consequence of compulsive buying was a significant decrease of positive affects. Thus the results of the current study suggest that mood states and daily stressful events are associated with compulsive buying behaviour. Although mood got worse immediately after excessive buying, this negative consequence did not reduce the frequency of pathological behaviour. This could implicate a high presence-orientation and impulsivity of the patients.

Environmental consequences of impact cratering events as a function of ambient conditions on Earth.

PubMed

Kring, David A

2003-01-01

The end of the Mesozoic Era is defined by a dramatic floral and faunal turnover that has been linked with the Chicxulub impact event, thus leading to the realization that impact cratering can affect both the geologic and biologic evolution of Earth. However, the environmental consequences of an impact event and any subsequent biological effects rely on several factors, including the ambient environmental conditions and the extant ecosystem structures at the time of impact. Some of the severest environmental perturbations of the Chicxulub impact event would not have been significant in some periods of Earth history. Consequently, the environmental and biological effects of an impact event must be evaluated in the context in which it occurs.

Disclosure Experiences of Urban, Ethnically Diverse LGBT High School Students: Implications for School Personnel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varjas, Kris; Kiperman, Sarah; Meyers, Joel

2016-01-01

Disclosure of sexual orientation and/or gender identity is a milestone event for lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) youth and can have both positive and negative mental health consequences. Twenty-nine urban, ethnically diverse LGBT high school students participated in face-to-face, in-depth interviews. Qualitative results revealed two…

Abnormal pelvic morphology and high cervical length are responsible for high-risk pregnancies in women displaying achondroplasia.

PubMed

Vivanti, Alexandre J; Cordier, Anne-Gael; Baujat, Geneviève; Benachi, Alexandra

2016-12-05

Pregnancies of women displaying achondroplasia are at high risk of adverse events. Early sonographic assessment of affected women can indicate an unusually long cervical length. It is the consequence of pathological anatomy of the pelvis. Thus, there is a foreseeable dystocia owing to cephalopelvic disproportion. Furthermore, this situation could also complicate cervical ripening prior to fetal extraction.

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Trial Implementation of a Multihazard Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Low-Frequency Power Grid Events

DOE PAGES

Veeramany, Arun; Coles, Garill A.; Unwin, Stephen D.; ...

2017-08-25

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a risk framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions. In this paper, we briefly recap the framework and demonstrate its implementation for seismic and geomagnetic hazards using a benchmark reliability test system. We describe integration of a collection of models implemented to perform hazard analysis, fragility evaluation, consequence estimation, and postevent restoration. We demonstrate the value of the framework as a multihazard power grid risk assessment and management tool. As a result, the research will benefit transmission planners and emergency planners by improving their ability to maintain a resilientmore » grid infrastructure against impacts from major events.« less

Climate aberrations during the middle Miocene: evidence from the eastern North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quaijtaal, W.; Donders, T.; Schouten, S.; Louwye, S.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO; 17-14.5 Ma) the relatively warm climate of the Miocene reached peak temperatures. After the MMCO, the global climate started cooling through several short-lived cooling events, represented by positive oxygen isotope excursions: the Mi-events (Miocene isotope events). One of the more severe events, Mi-3, is associated with East Antarctic Ice Sheet growth and potential Northern Hemisphere ice expansion, as well as marine and terrestrial species turnover and aridification. The causes and consequences of the Mi-events are not well constrained yet. CO2 reconstructions combined with the abovementioned consequences suggest that a drawdown of CO2 and/or changes in ocean led to the changes surrounding Mi-3. A minimum node in both eccentricity and obliquity amplitude modulation, an orbital configuration creating favourable conditions for ice growth, has been suggested as a possible triggering mechanism as well. However, an exact cause cannot be pinpointed yet and more high-resolution records are needed in order to investigate the impact and order of events surrounding the Mi-events. Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Leg 307 recovered such a high resolution record from the middle Miocene of the Porcupine Basin (offshore south-western Ireland). We have analyzed well-preserved palynomorphs (mainly organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts, acritarchs and pollen) and organic molecules for paleothermometry (e.g. TEX86 and UK'37) from site U1318. With these proxies, the development of the Mi-3 event and following Mi-4 have been reconstructed in high resolution (ca. 13 kyr), by assessing e.g. temperature, sea level, thermocline depth and productivity. A pronounced cooling can be observed at Mi-3, and to a lesser degree in Mi-4 as well, together with a sea-level fall and a turnover in the dinocyst record. Our findings also include indications of aridification and a change in wind patterns during Mi-3. This confirms the dramatic impact of the Mi-3 event, not only on the North Atlantic Ocean, but also on the continent.

Statistical surrogate models for prediction of high-consequence climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Constantine, Paul; Field, Richard V., Jr.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2011-09-01

In safety engineering, performance metrics are defined using probabilistic risk assessments focused on the low-probability, high-consequence tail of the distribution of possible events, as opposed to best estimates based on central tendencies. We frame the climate change problem and its associated risks in a similar manner. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We therefore propose the use of specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) for the purpose of exploring the probability law of various climate variables of interest.more » A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, e.g., the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), or to a collection of outputs from a General Circulation Model (GCM), e.g., the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and its predecessors. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework is developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, in the use of the proposed approach to assess these risks.« less

Counter-Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-01-26

environment. (Page 10) Consequence management activities serve to reduce the effects of a CBRN attack or event, and assist in the restoration of...can be used quite effectively as attack agents. Toxic Industrial Chemicals (TICs), Toxic Industrial Materials (TIMs), and other potentially...CBRN pillars. Consequence Management Consequence management (CM) activities serve to reduce the effects of a CBRN attack or event, and assist in

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krier, D. J.; Perry, F. V.

Location, timing, volume, and eruptive style of post-Miocene volcanoes have defined the volcanic hazard significant to a proposed high-level radioactive waste (HLW) and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, as a low-probability, high-consequence event. Examination of eruptive centers in the region that may be analogueues to possible future volcanic activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining and evaluating the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption above a repository. The probability of a future event intersecting a repository at Yucca Mountain has a mean value of 1.7 x 10{sup -8} per year. This probability comes frommore » the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) completed in 1996 and updated to reflect change in repository layout. Since that time, magnetic anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified fiom magnetic surveys; however these potential buried centers only slightly increase the probability of an event intersecting the repository. The proposed repository will be located in its central portion of Yucca Mountain at approximately 300m depth. The process for assessing performance of a repository at Yucca Mountain has identified two scenarios for igneous activity that, although having a very low probability of occurrence, could have a significant consequence should an igneous event occur. Either a dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, or a volcanic eruption through the repository could result in release of radioactive material to the accessible environment. Ongoing investigations are assessing the mechanisms and significance of the consequence scenarios. Lathrop Wells Cone ({approx}80,000 yrs), a key analogue for estimating potential future volcanic activity, is the youngest surface expression of apparent waning basaltic volcanism in the region. Cone internal structure, lavas, and ash-fall tephra have been examined to estimate eruptive volume, eruption type, and subsurface disturbance accompanying conduit growth and eruption. The Lathrop Wells volcanic complex has a total volume estimate of approximately 0.1 km{sup 3}. The eruptive products indicate a sequence of initial magmatic fissure fountaining, early Strombolian activity, and a brief hydrovolcanic phase, and violent Strombolian phase(s). Lava flows adjacent to the Lathrop Wells Cone probably were emplaced during the mid-eruptive sequence. Ongoing investigations continue to address the potential hazards of a volcanic event at Yucca Mountain.« less

Predicting Consequences of Technological Disasters from Natural Hazard Events: Challenges and Opportunities Associated with Industrial Accident Data Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, M.

2009-04-01

The increased focus on the possibility of technological accidents caused by natural events (Natech) is foreseen to continue for years to come. In this case, experts in prevention, mitigation and preparation activities associated with natural events will increasingly need to borrow data and expertise traditionally associated with the technological fields to carry out the work. An important question is how useful is the data for understanding consequences from such natech events. Data and case studies provided on major industrial accidents tend to focus on lessons learned for re-engineering the process. While consequence data are reported at least nominally in most reports, their precision, quality and completeness is often lacking. Consequences that are often or sometimes available but not provided can include severity and type of injuries, distance of victims from the source, exposure measurements, volume of the release, population in potentially affected zones, and weather conditions. Yet these are precisely the type of data that will aid natural hazard experts in land-use planning and emergency response activities when a Natech event may be foreseen. This work discusses the results of a study of consequence data from accidents involving toxic releases reported in the EU's MARS accident database. The study analysed the precision, quality and completeness of three categories of consequence data reported: the description of health effects, consequence assessment and chemical risk assessment factors, and emergency response information. This work reports on the findings from this study and discusses how natural hazards experts might interact with industrial accident experts to promote more consistent and accurate reporting of the data that will be useful in consequence-based activities.

The risk of solar proton events to space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrell, M. O.

1972-01-01

The total dose in rads-tissue from solar protons was tabulated for weekly time intervals, and the number of weeks which gave a dose above 25 rads behind 10 g/sq cm of aluminum for the active 6 years of the 19th cycle were called dangerous or large event weeks. The number of such event weeks was found to be only 3 weeks for the past 20 years. Even though the chance for smaller events is examined, it was found that for any reasonable, high confidence level (95%), the smaller events could be ignored. Consequently, the total particle flux for the 19th cycle was divided by a factor of 3 and determined a single large event week. Using this spectrum, the tissue dose in rads is calculated at the center of an aluminum spherical shell.

Stress Reduces the Incorporation of Misinformation into an Established Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmidt, Pia-Isabell; Rosga, Kristin; Schatto, Celina; Breidenstein, Anja; Schwabe, Lars

2014-01-01

Memory can be distorted by misleading post-event information. These memory distortions may have serious consequences, for example in eyewitness testimony. Many situations in which memory reports are solicited, and suggestive or misleading information is presented, are highly stressful for the respondent, yet little is known about how stress…

Enzyme Activity Dynamics in Response to Climate Change: 2011 Drought-Heat Wave

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Drinking games and contextual factors of 21st birthday drinking.

PubMed

Neighbors, Clayton; Rodriguez, Lindsey M; Rinker, Dipali V; DiBello, Angelo M; Young, Chelsie M; Chen, Chun-Han

2014-09-01

21st birthday celebrations are among the highest risks for alcohol use throughout emerging adulthood and celebrants often experience a range of alcohol-related consequences. The present research considered what happens when drinking games are paired with an already high-risk event (i.e., 21st birthday celebrations) and how drinking games compare with other contextual factors on 21st birthdays. Approximately four days after turning 21, 1124 college students (55% women) completed an online survey assessing alcohol use and related consequences experienced during their birthday celebrations. Participants were also asked whether drinking games and other contextual factors were associated with their celebrations. Overall, 18% of participants reported playing drinking games during their 21st birthday celebrations. These individuals reported consuming more alcohol, had higher estimated BACs, and experienced more negative consequences than those who did not play drinking games. The association between playing drinking games and alcohol use and negative consequences was stronger for men. The effect of drinking games on negative consequences was mediated through elevated BAC levels. Receiving bar specials, having drinks purchased, playing drinking games, and loud music were uniquely and significantly associated with all alcohol outcomes. Together, these results suggest that drinking games are part of a larger context of risk contributing to extreme drinking on 21st birthdays. Furthermore, these results will help to facilitate interventions that are more individually tailored to target specific contextual risks, behaviors, and events.

Ensuring critical event sequences in high consequence computer based systems as inspired by path expressions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kidd, M.E.C.

1997-02-01

The goal of our work is to provide a high level of confidence that critical software driven event sequences are maintained in the face of hardware failures, malevolent attacks and harsh or unstable operating environments. This will be accomplished by providing dynamic fault management measures directly to the software developer and to their varied development environments. The methodology employed here is inspired by previous work in path expressions. This paper discusses the perceived problems, a brief overview of path expressions, the proposed methods, and a discussion of the differences between the proposed methods and traditional path expression usage and implementation.

Droughts, dry spells, low water levels and their environmental-social consequences in late medieval Hungary (and Croatia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiss, Andrea; Nikolic, Zrinka

2016-04-01

Based on medieval, contemporary evidence, in the presentation 14th-15th-century droughts, dry spells and documented low water-level events of large rivers (e.g. Danube, Tisza) and their detected environmental and social consequences are discussed in more detail, with special emphasis on the years of 1361-1364, 1393-1394, 1440, the early 1540s, 1474, 1479-1480 and 1494. The poster presentation is centred around the following topics: - magnitude, intensity and frequency of droughts and dry spells (in comparison with famous 18th-19th-century drought periods); - provide information (and a comparison) on Central European parallels; - other natural hazards combined with drought and dry spells (e.g. convective events); - the relationship of multiannual water-deficits and locust invasions, their intensity and documented further impacts; - the consequences of droughts, dry spells and low water levels on society, with special emphasis on food production (e.g. bad harvests, grazing permissions, high prices, threatening food shortage), transportation problems (esp. salt transportation), military defence (Ottoman Turkish attacks) and their further social effects (e.g. land-ownership debates; royal intervention and export prohibition).

The Incidence, Nature and Consequences of Adverse Events in Iranian Hospitals.

PubMed

Akbari Sari, Ali; Doshmangir, Leila; Torabi, Fereshteh; Rashidian, Arash; Sedaghat, Mojtaba; Ghomi, Robabeh; Prasopa-Plaizier, Nittita

2015-12-01

Adverse events are relatively common in healthcare, leading to extensive harm to patients and a significant drain on healthcare resources. Identifying the extent, nature and consequences of adverse events is an important step in preventing adverse events and their consequences which is the subject of this study. This is a retrospective review of medical records randomly selected from patients admitted to 4 general hospitals, staying more than 24 hours and discharged between April and September 2012. We randomly selected 1200 records and completed the record review for 1162 of these records. Standard forms (RF1 and RF2) were used to review medical records in two stages by nurses and medical doctors. Eighty-five (7.3%) of the 1162 records had an adverse event during the admission; and in 43 (3.7%) of the 1162 records, the patient was admitted to the hospital due to an adverse event that occurred before the admission. Therefore, a total of 128 (11.0%) adverse events occurred in 126 (10.9) records as two patients had more than one adverse event. Forty-four (34.3%) of these 128 adverse events were considered preventable. This study confirms that adverse events, particularly adverse drug reactions, post-operative infections, bedsore and hospital acquired infections are common and potentially preventable sources of harm to patients in Iranian hospitals.

Fluctuating confidence: the dynamic consequences of true/false affirmatives and denials on how a listener appraises their personal past.

PubMed

Davis, Jolee; Bayantemur, Sharon Y; Seecharan, Sasha; Unger, Leslie D; Hellgren, Johanna; Stone, Charles B

2018-08-01

The present study examined the mnemonic consequences of true/false denials and affirmatives on how a listener appraises their personal past. To this end, participants (listeners) rated the extent to which they were confident certain events occurred during their childhood. They rated these events both before and after a confederate (speaker) denied or affirmed the occurrence of four different childhood events each, for a total of eight "rehearsed" events. For each set (denials and affirmatives) of events, half were true and half were false. In turn, this created four types of events (two each): true denials, true affirmatives, false denials, and false affirmatives. Additionally, half of the participants were told that the speaker was provided independent information about the veracity of the event's occurrence ("expert" condition). Overall, listeners were less confident in the occurrence of false denial events, but more so when they believed the speaker to be more knowledgeable of the listeners memories, more confident in false affirmative events and, counter intuitively, more confident in the occurrence of true denial events. These results underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to the mnemonic consequences of true and false denials and affirmations in the course of social interactions.

Confidential reporting of patient safety events in primary care: results from a multilevel classification of cognitive and system factors.

PubMed

Kostopoulou, Olga; Delaney, Brendan

2007-04-01

To classify events of actual or potential harm to primary care patients using a multilevel taxonomy of cognitive and system factors. Observational study of patient safety events obtained via a confidential but not anonymous reporting system. Reports were followed up with interviews where necessary. Events were analysed for their causes and contributing factors using causal trees and were classified using the taxonomy. Five general medical practices in the West Midlands were selected to represent a range of sizes and types of patient population. All practice staff were invited to report patient safety events. Main outcome measures were frequencies of clinical types of events reported, cognitive types of error, types of detection and contributing factors; and relationship between types of error, practice size, patient consequences and detection. 78 reports were relevant to patient safety and analysable. They included 21 (27%) adverse events and 50 (64%) near misses. 16.7% (13/71) had serious patient consequences, including one death. 75.7% (59/78) had the potential for serious patient harm. Most reports referred to administrative errors (25.6%, 20/78). 60% (47/78) of the reports contained sufficient information to characterise cognition: "situation assessment and response selection" was involved in 45% (21/47) of these reports and was often linked to serious potential consequences. The most frequent contributing factor was work organisation, identified in 71 events. This included excessive task demands (47%, 37/71) and fragmentation (28%, 22/71). Even though most reported events were near misses, events with serious patient consequences were also reported. Failures in situation assessment and response selection, a cognitive activity that occurs in both clinical and administrative tasks, was related to serious potential harm.

Confidential reporting of patient safety events in primary care: results from a multilevel classification of cognitive and system factors

PubMed Central

Kostopoulou, Olga; Delaney, Brendan

2007-01-01

Objective To classify events of actual or potential harm to primary care patients using a multilevel taxonomy of cognitive and system factors. Methods Observational study of patient safety events obtained via a confidential but not anonymous reporting system. Reports were followed up with interviews where necessary. Events were analysed for their causes and contributing factors using causal trees and were classified using the taxonomy. Five general medical practices in the West Midlands were selected to represent a range of sizes and types of patient population. All practice staff were invited to report patient safety events. Main outcome measures were frequencies of clinical types of events reported, cognitive types of error, types of detection and contributing factors; and relationship between types of error, practice size, patient consequences and detection. Results 78 reports were relevant to patient safety and analysable. They included 21 (27%) adverse events and 50 (64%) near misses. 16.7% (13/71) had serious patient consequences, including one death. 75.7% (59/78) had the potential for serious patient harm. Most reports referred to administrative errors (25.6%, 20/78). 60% (47/78) of the reports contained sufficient information to characterise cognition: “situation assessment and response selection” was involved in 45% (21/47) of these reports and was often linked to serious potential consequences. The most frequent contributing factor was work organisation, identified in 71 events. This included excessive task demands (47%, 37/71) and fragmentation (28%, 22/71). Conclusions Even though most reported events were near misses, events with serious patient consequences were also reported. Failures in situation assessment and response selection, a cognitive activity that occurs in both clinical and administrative tasks, was related to serious potential harm. PMID:17403753

Nurse willingness to report for work in the event of an earthquake in Israel.

PubMed

Ben Natan, Merav; Nigel, Simon; Yevdayev, Innush; Qadan, Mohamad; Dudkiewicz, Mickey

2014-10-01

To examine variables affecting nurse willingness to report for work in the event of an earthquake in Israel and whether this can be predicted through the Theory of Self-Efficacy. The nursing profession has a major role in preparing for earthquakes. Nurse willingness to report to work in the event of an earthquake has never before been examined. Self-administered questionnaires were distributed among a convenience sample of 400 nurses and nursing students in Israel during January-April 2012. High willingness to report to work in the event of an earthquake was declared by 57% of respondents. High perceived self-efficacy, level of knowledge and experience predict willingness to report to work in the event of an earthquake. Multidisciplinary collaboration and support was also cited as a meaningful factor. Perceived self-efficacy, level of knowledge, experience and the support of a multidisciplinary staff affect nurse willingness to report to work in the event of an earthquake. Nurse managers can identify factors that increase nurse willingness to report to work in the event of an earthquake and consequently develop strategies for more efficient management of their nursing workforce. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Addressing the Needs of Preschool Children in the Context of Disasters and Terrorism: Clinical Pictures and Moderating Factors.

PubMed

Hamiel, Daniel; Wolmer, Leo; Pardo-Aviv, Lee; Laor, Nathaniel

2017-07-01

This paper surveys the existent theoretical and research literature regarding the needs of preschool children in the context of disasters and terrorism with the aim of understanding (a) the consequences of such events for young children and (b) the main moderating variables influencing the event-consequence association to learn how to enhance their resilience. Consequences include a variety of emotional, behavioral, and biological outcomes. Implications for refugee children are discussed. Main moderating variables were mother's sensitivity and mother's PTSD symptoms. Exposure to disasters and terrorism may have severe effects on the mental health and development among preschool children. Future research should explore the implications of different levels of exposure and the effects of moderating psychosocial and biological variables, including the parent-child triad, on the event-consequence relationship.

Development of the Construction Training Attitudes and Intentions Scale

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, Jonathan W.

2013-01-01

The events of the Great Recession (2007-2009) have resulted in high unemployment and underemployment rates in the United States and abroad. The plight of domestic young adults, particularly young men with few work-related skills, is evident. Failing to receive a first job has long-term negative consequences for these individuals and their…

Historical precedence and technical requirements of biological weapons use : a threat assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estes, Daniel P.; Vogel, Kathleen Margaret; Gaudioso, Jennifer Marie

2004-05-01

The threat from biological weapons is assessed through both a comparative historical analysis of the patterns of biological weapons use and an assessment of the technological hurdles to proliferation and use that must be overcome. The history of biological weapons is studied to learn how agents have been acquired and what types of states and substate actors have used agents. Substate actors have generally been more willing than states to use pathogens and toxins and they have focused on those agents that are more readily available. There has been an increasing trend of bioterrorism incidents over the past century, butmore » states and substate actors have struggled with one or more of the necessary technological steps. These steps include acquisition of a suitable agent, production of an appropriate quantity and form, and effective deployment. The technological hurdles associated with the steps present a real barrier to producing a high consequence event. However, the ever increasing technological sophistication of society continually lowers the barriers, resulting in a low but increasing probability of a high consequence bioterrorism event.« less

Animal health economics: an aid to decisionmaking on animal health interventions - case studies in the United States of America.

PubMed

Marsh, T L; Pendell, D; Knippenberg, R

2017-04-01

For animal disease events the outcomes and consequences often remain unclear or uncertain, including the expected changes in benefits (e.g. profit to firms, prices to consumers) and in costs (e.g. response, clean-up). Moreover, the measurement of changes in benefits and costs across alternative interventions used to control animal disease events may be inexact. For instance, the economic consequences of alternative vaccination strategies to mitigate a disease can vary in magnitude due to trade embargoes and other factors. The authors discuss the economic measurement of animal disease outbreaks and interventions and how measurement is used in private and public decision-making. Two illustrative case studies in the United States of America are provided: a hypothetical outbreak of foot and mouth disease in cattle, and the 2014-2015 outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry.

Evolutionary consequences of antibiotic use for the resistome, mobilome and microbial pangenome

PubMed Central

Gillings, Michael R.

2013-01-01

The widespread use and abuse of antibiotic therapy has evolutionary and ecological consequences, some of which are only just beginning to be examined. One well known consequence is the fixation of mutations and lateral gene transfer (LGT) events that confer antibiotic resistance. Sequential selection events, driven by different classes of antibiotics, have resulted in the assembly of diverse resistance determinants and mobile DNAs into novel genetic elements of ever-growing complexity and flexibility. These novel plasmids, integrons, and genomic islands have now become fixed at high frequency in diverse cell lineages by human antibiotic use. Consequently they can be regarded as xenogenetic pollutants, analogous to xenobiotic compounds, but with the critical distinction that they replicate rather than degrade when released to pollute natural environments. Antibiotics themselves must also be regarded as pollutants, since human production overwhelms natural synthesis, and a major proportion of ingested antibiotic is excreted unchanged into waste streams. Such antibiotic pollutants have non-target effects, raising the general rates of mutation, recombination, and LGT in all the microbiome, and simultaneously providing the selective force to fix such changes. This has the consequence of recruiting more genes into the resistome and mobilome, and of increasing the overlap between these two components of microbial genomes. Thus the human use and environmental release of antibiotics is having second order effects on the microbial world, because these small molecules act as drivers of bacterial evolution. Continued pollution with both xenogenetic elements and the selective agents that fix such elements in populations has potentially adverse consequences for human welfare. PMID:23386843

Evolutionary consequences of antibiotic use for the resistome, mobilome and microbial pangenome.

PubMed

Gillings, Michael R

2013-01-01

The widespread use and abuse of antibiotic therapy has evolutionary and ecological consequences, some of which are only just beginning to be examined. One well known consequence is the fixation of mutations and lateral gene transfer (LGT) events that confer antibiotic resistance. Sequential selection events, driven by different classes of antibiotics, have resulted in the assembly of diverse resistance determinants and mobile DNAs into novel genetic elements of ever-growing complexity and flexibility. These novel plasmids, integrons, and genomic islands have now become fixed at high frequency in diverse cell lineages by human antibiotic use. Consequently they can be regarded as xenogenetic pollutants, analogous to xenobiotic compounds, but with the critical distinction that they replicate rather than degrade when released to pollute natural environments. Antibiotics themselves must also be regarded as pollutants, since human production overwhelms natural synthesis, and a major proportion of ingested antibiotic is excreted unchanged into waste streams. Such antibiotic pollutants have non-target effects, raising the general rates of mutation, recombination, and LGT in all the microbiome, and simultaneously providing the selective force to fix such changes. This has the consequence of recruiting more genes into the resistome and mobilome, and of increasing the overlap between these two components of microbial genomes. Thus the human use and environmental release of antibiotics is having second order effects on the microbial world, because these small molecules act as drivers of bacterial evolution. Continued pollution with both xenogenetic elements and the selective agents that fix such elements in populations has potentially adverse consequences for human welfare.

The differential effects of increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events on coral populations.

PubMed

Fabina, Nicholas S; Baskett, Marissa L; Gross, Kevin

2015-09-01

Extreme events, which have profound ecological consequences, are changing in both frequency and magnitude with climate change. Because extreme temperatures induce coral bleaching, we can explore the relative impacts of changes in frequency and magnitude of high temperature events on coral reefs. Here, we combined climate projections and a dynamic population model to determine how changing bleaching regimes influence coral persistence. We additionally explored how coral traits and competition with macroalgae mediate changes in bleaching regimes. Our results predict that severe bleaching events reduce coral persistence more than frequent bleaching. Corals with low adult mortality and high growth rates are successful when bleaching is mild, but bleaching resistance is necessary to persist when bleaching is severe, regardless of frequency. The existence of macroalgae-dominated stable states reduces coral persistence and changes the relative importance of coral traits. Building on previous studies, our results predict that management efforts may need to prioritize protection of "weaker" corals with high adult mortality when bleaching is mild, and protection of "stronger" corals with high bleaching resistance when bleaching is severe. In summary, future reef projections and conservation targets depend on both local bleaching regimes and biodiversity.

Using Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) to Study Sex Events Among Very High-Risk Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM).

PubMed

Wray, Tyler B; Kahler, Christopher W; Monti, Peter M

2016-10-01

MSM continue to represent the largest share of new HIV infections in the United States each year due to high infectivity associated with unprotected anal sex. Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) has the potential to provide a unique view of how high-risk sexual events occur in the real world and can impart detailed information about aspects of decision-making, antecedents, and consequences that accompany these events. EMA may also produce more accurate data on sexual behavior by assessing it soon after its occurrence. We conducted a study involving 12 high-risk MSM to explore the acceptability and feasibility of a 30 day, intensive EMA procedure. Results suggest this intensive assessment strategy was both acceptable and feasible to participants. All participants provided response rates to various assessments that approached or were in excess of their targets: 81.0 % of experience sampling assessments and 93.1 % of daily diary assessments were completed. However, comparing EMA reports with a Timeline Followback (TLFB) of the same 30 day period suggested that participants reported fewer sexual risk events on the TLFB compared to EMA, and reported a number of discrepancies about specific behaviors and partner characteristics across the two methods. Overall, results support the acceptability, feasibility, and utility of using EMA to understand sexual risk events among high-risk MSM. Findings also suggest that EMA and other intensive longitudinal assessment approaches could yield more accurate data about sex events.

Passenger rail security, planning, and resilience: application of network, plume, and economic simulation models as decision support tools.

PubMed

Greenberg, Michael; Lioy, Paul; Ozbas, Birnur; Mantell, Nancy; Isukapalli, Sastry; Lahr, Michael; Altiok, Tayfur; Bober, Joseph; Lacy, Clifton; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Rovito, Jennifer

2013-11-01

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail-centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Michael; Lioy, Paul; Ozbas, Birnur; Mantell, Nancy; Isukapalli, Sastry; Lahr, Michael; Altiok, Tayfur; Bober, Joseph; Lacy, Clifton; Lowrie, Karen; Mayer, Henry; Rovito, Jennifer

2014-01-01

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail-centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail-centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow-moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail-related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail-centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence. PMID:23718133

Risk assessment of flash floods in central Pyrenees (Spain) through land use change analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Mora, Daniel; Sánchez-Fabre, Miguel; Ángel Saz, Miguel; Ollero, Alfredo

2015-04-01

Nowadays, the main cause of the damages to human areas is the increased risk exposure. The urbanization in touristic areas in Pyrenees has increased enormously in last 25 years, and the most of urban development have been made on land occupied by the stream channel. We present two different case studies in central Pyrenees: one in Aragón river and one in Ésera river. We made a land use analysis from 1956 to 2013 in the headwaters of these two rivers delimiting the channel in different flash floods events, and analysing the amount and distribution of precipitation at the same time. The results show that the risk exposure is one of the main factors of the impact of flash floods. We found that most of the damage on urbanization and human activities was caused by the urban occupation of areas that were located on the floodplain of the river. For both Aragon and Esera headwaters precipitation events were considered extreme in their time series. However, the amount of precipitation of these extreme events does not support the consequences in geomorphological and human environments. The events of high intensity rainfall over the last years could be expected, yet, it had unexpected consequences that could be predictable by land managers through an appropriate regional planning.

Violence in Schools: From the Perspective of Students, Teachers, and Mothers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurtal, Filiz

2014-01-01

How school violence is perceived by the members of school is of importance because their conceptions might affect their understanding of the reasons and consequently, finding the solutions. The objective of this study is to analyze how students, teachers, and mothers perceive an event of school violence. The study was conducted in high schools…

Soil enzyme activities during the 2011 Texas record drought/heat wave and implications to biogeochemical cycling and organic matter dynamics

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme weather events such as severe droughts and heat waves may have permanent consequences on soil quality and functioning in agroecosystems. The Southern High Plains (SHP) region of Texas, U.S., a large cotton producing area, experienced a historically extreme drought and heat wave during 2011,...

Energy harvesting from wood floor vibration using a piezoelectric generator

Treesearch

Jiangming Kan; Robert J. Ross; Xiping Wang; Wenbin Li

2017-01-01

Vibration can occur in wood floor systems as a consequence of a variety of human activities, ranging from common daily movements associated with individuals living in homes to high-intensity activities associated with sporting events that are held in large sports arenas. For example, the potential for harvesting energy from a wooden floor system in public buildings...

Preliminary evidence for a 1000-year-old tsunami in the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Sun, Liguang; Zhou, Xin; Huang, Wen; Liu, Xiaodong; Yan, Hong; Xie, Zhouqing; Wu, Zijun; Zhao, Sanping; Da Shao; Yang, Wenqing

2013-01-01

The risk of large, devastating tsunamis in the South China Sea and its surrounding coastal region is commonly underestimated or unrecognized due to the difficulty of differentiating tsunami from storm deposits. As a consequence, few convincing records have documented tsunami deposits in this region. Here we report preliminary evidence from Xisha Islands in the South China Sea for a large tsunami around AD 1024. Sand layers in lake sediment cores and their geochemical characteristics indicate a sudden deposition event around AD 1024, temporally consistent with a written record of a disastrous event characterized by high waves in AD 1076. Heavy coral and shell fossils, which are older than AD 1024, deposited more than 200 meters into the island, further support the occurrence of a high-energy event such as a tsunami or an unusually large storm. Our results underscore the importance of acknowledging and understanding the tsunami hazard in this area. PMID:23575432

Preliminary evidence for a 1000-year-old tsunami in the South China Sea.

PubMed

Sun, Liguang; Zhou, Xin; Huang, Wen; Liu, Xiaodong; Yan, Hong; Xie, Zhouqing; Wu, Zijun; Zhao, Sanping; Da Shao; Yang, Wenqing

2013-01-01

The risk of large, devastating tsunamis in the South China Sea and its surrounding coastal region is commonly underestimated or unrecognized due to the difficulty of differentiating tsunami from storm deposits. As a consequence, few convincing records have documented tsunami deposits in this region. Here we report preliminary evidence from Xisha Islands in the South China Sea for a large tsunami around AD 1024. Sand layers in lake sediment cores and their geochemical characteristics indicate a sudden deposition event around AD 1024, temporally consistent with a written record of a disastrous event characterized by high waves in AD 1076. Heavy coral and shell fossils, which are older than AD 1024, deposited more than 200 meters into the island, further support the occurrence of a high-energy event such as a tsunami or an unusually large storm. Our results underscore the importance of acknowledging and understanding the tsunami hazard in this area.

Benthic foraminiferal assemblages in the Cap de Creus canyon and adjacent open slope: Potential influence of dense shelf water cascading and open-ocean convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nardelli, M. P.; Sabbatini, A.; Bonnot, E.; Mea, M.; Pusceddu, A.; Danovaro, R.; Durrieu de Madron, X.; Negri, A.; Bicchi, E.

2018-06-01

The NW Mediterranean Sea is subjected to episodically intense events of dense shelf water cascading (DSWC) and open-ocean convection (OOC) that ventilate the seafloor and also have important consequences on organic matter inputs to the seabed and sediment dynamics. The influence of the massive physico-chemical disturbance driven by these events on deep-sea ecosystems is poorly known, and, to date, no information is available on the response of benthic foraminiferal assemblages. To provide insights on these gaps of knowledge, in April 2009 we investigated the foraminiferal faunas along the major axis of the Cap de Creus canyon (at 1000, 1900 and 2400 m depth) and at two additional stations located on the adjacent open slope (at 1000 and 1900 m). The area under scrutiny was hit by intense DSWC and OOC events in winters 2005 and 2006, and during winter 2009 an intense OOC event occurred, with detectable consequences observed at > 1500 m depth. We report here foraminiferal faunas characterized by low densities but relatively high levels of biodiversity at 1000-m depth stations. On the contrary, at the deeper depths, very high densities (associated with low organic matter contents) and strong dominance of the disaster species Usbekistania charoides were observed in the > 63 μm fraction. The comparison of our results - obtained immediately after an OOC event - to those previously described in spring 2004, before DSWC and OOC events, reveals the presence of largely different foraminiferal assemblages in the two periods. Based on a detailed analysis of the ecological traits of the faunas encountered in the two sampling periods, we suggest that either DSWC or OOC can have a role in shaping deep-sea foraminiferal faunas. Moreover, we contend that, at 1000 m depth, the composition of the foraminiferal assemblages in spring 2009 is suggestive of a resilient stage following the major DSWC events in 2005/2006, whereas the low evenness of faunas at ≥ 1900 m depth is, most likely, the result of the OOC event that occurred in winter 2009, a few months before our sampling.

The impact of occupational hazards and traumatic events among Belgian emergency physicians.

PubMed

Somville, Francis J; De Gucht, Véronique; Maes, Stan

2016-04-27

Emergency Physicians (EPs) are regularly confronted with work related traumatic events and hectic work conditions. Several studies mention a high incidence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and psychosomatic complaints in EP. The main objective of this study is to examine the contribution of demographics, traumatic events, life events, the occurrence of occupational hazards and social support to post-traumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), psychological distress, fatigue, somatic complaints and job satisfaction in Emergency Physicians. For this study questionnaires were distributed to Belgian Emergency Physicians, These include, as determinants socio-demographic characteristics, traumatic events, life events, the occurrence of physical hazards, occurrences of violence, occurrence of situations that increase the risk of burnout and social support by supervisors and colleagues (LQWQ-Med), and as outcomes PTSS (IES), psychological distress (BSI), somatic complaints (PHQ 15), perceived fatigue (CIS20 R) and job satisfaction (LQWQ-MD). The response rate was 52.3 %. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the association between the determinants and each of the outcomes. Emergency Physicians are particularly vulnerable to post-traumatic and chronic stress consequences due to repetitive exposure to work related traumatic incidents such as serious injuries or death of a child/adolescent. One out of three Emergency Physicians met sub-clinical levels of anxiety and 14.5 % met a clinical level of PTSD, short for Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder. Levels of fatigue were high but not directly related to traumatic events and occupational hazards. Social support from colleagues was found to have a beneficial effect on these complaints. Job satisfaction seems to have a protective factor. All of these not only affect the Emergency Physicians themselves, but can also have an adverse impact on patient care. EPs are, according to our and other studies, confronted on a regular basis with significant, potentially traumatizing work related events. There is a higher perception of traumatic events in older Eps. We find out that 36 % of the EPs find dealing with sudden death of a young person and traumatic accident/disease involving a young person the most traumatic experience during their work activity. Three quarter of these EPs have children of their own. The results of the study show that frequency of exposure to traumatic (work) events contributes next to occurrence of situations that increase the risk of burnout to the explanation of variance in posttraumatic stress and psychological distress. The novelty of this study is that it explores the effect of specific determinants of PTSS, psychological distress, fatigue, somatic complaints and job satisfaction in Emergency Physicians. Especially occurrence of situations that increase the risk of burnout seems to have a major impact on all outcomes including job satisfaction, while occurrence of violence contributes especially to psychological distress and perceived fatigue. Lack of social support is a well-known predictor of occupational stress in emergency care workers. In contrast however, good social support of colleagues at work, as we found in our study, can facilitate the recovery process after confrontation with traumatic events and occupational hazards. Emergency Physicians are particularly vulnerable to post-traumatic stress and chronic stress consequences due to repetitive exposure to work related traumatic events. Training in dealing with violence and situations that can increase the risk of burnout can reduce detrimental consequences in emergency physicians. In addition, it is suggested that emergency units are screened systematically on determinants of burnout, in view of interventions. Finally, creating a supportive work environment and training the medical staff in supportive skills with backup by experts may also reduce adverse consequences of confrontation with traumatic work events.

Analysis of causes of the eventual increment in climatic episodies in the period 2004-2014 and the consequences on the coast of Galicia (NW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez Lopez, Fernando; Diez, Javier; Veiga, Efren

2015-04-01

In recent years has observed an increase in atmospheric and marine events on the coast of Galicia (Spain) which have caused economic losses and human lives; and also an alarm in the population. This work analyse the consequences in order temporal and geographical; and the possible causes and influences which can motivate the presence of these events and their consequences. This work also proposes a strategy to prevent such events and to limit their effects. The generating criteria proposed is a rating system of security, in such way that the society by itself generates the trends for improvement. Keywords: Security, Civil engineering, Marine constructions, Realibility, Insurance, Prevention forensic engineering

An improved database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915 to 2016

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Wadey, Matthew P.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Gallop, Shari L.; Wahl, Thomas; Brown, Jennifer M.

2017-01-01

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can produce devastating and wide-ranging consequences. The ‘SurgeWatch’ v1.0 database systematically documents and assesses the consequences of historical coastal flood events around the UK. The original database was inevitably biased due to the inconsistent spatial and temporal coverage of sea-level observations utilised. Therefore, we present an improved version integrating a variety of ‘soft’ data such as journal papers, newspapers, weather reports, and social media. SurgeWatch2.0 identifies 329 coastal flooding events from 1915 to 2016, a more than fivefold increase compared to the 59 events in v1.0. Moreover, each flood event is now ranked using a multi-level categorisation based on inundation, transport disruption, costs, and fatalities: from 1 (Nuisance) to 6 (Disaster). For the 53 most severe events ranked Category 3 and above, an accompanying event description based upon the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework was produced. Thus, SurgeWatch v2.0 provides the most comprehensive and coherent historical record of UK coastal flooding. It is designed to be a resource for research, planning, management and education. PMID:28763054

Genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events

PubMed Central

Mangel, Marc; Jesensek, Dusan; Garza, John Carlos; Crivelli, Alain J.

2017-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event. PMID:28148745

Public health consequences of mercury spills: Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance system, 1993-1998.

PubMed Central

Zeitz, Perri; Orr, Maureen F; Kaye, Wendy E

2002-01-01

We analyzed data from states that participated in the Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) system maintained by the Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry to describe the public health consequences of mercury releases. From 1993 through 1998, HSEES captured 406 events in which mercury was the only substance released. Schools and universities, private residences, and health care facilities were the most frequent locations involved in mercury events, and human error was the contributing factor for most of the releases. Fourteen persons experienced adverse health effects as a result of the releases. An additional 31 persons had documented elevated levels of mercury in the blood. No fatalities resulted. Evacuations were ordered in 90 (22%) of the events, and the length of evacuation ranged from 1 hr to 46 days. Mercury spills have a significant public health impact and economic burden. Some actions that could potentially lessen the consequences of mercury spills are to switch to mercury-free alternatives, train people in the safe handling and disposal of mercury, and keep mercury securely stored when it is necessary to have it on hand. PMID:11836139

Consequences of an unusual flood event: case study of a drainage canal breach on a fluvial plain in NE Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidmar, Ines; Ambrožič, Bojan; Debeljak, Barbara; Dolžan, Erazem; Gregorin, Špela; Grom, Nina; Herman, Polona; Keršmanc, Teja; Mencin, Eva; Mernik, Natalija; Švara, Astrid; Trobec, Ana; Turnšek, Anita; Vodeb, Petra; Torkar, Anja; Brenčič, Mihael

2013-04-01

On November 4-6 2012 heavy precipitation resulted in floods in the middle and lower course of Drava River in NE Slovenia causing damage to many properties in the flooded area. The meteorological situation that led to consequent floods was characterized by high precipitation, fast snowmelt, SW wind and relatively high air temperature. The weather event was part of a cyclone which was spreading over the area of North, West and Central Europe in the direction of Central Europe and carried with it the passing of a cold front through Slovenia on November 4 and 5. The flood wave travelled on the Drava River from Austria to Slovenia past the 11 hydroelectric power plants after eventually moving over the Slovenian-Croatian border. The river discharge increased in the early morning of November 5 reaching 3165 m3/s. This work focuses on a single event in the Ptujsko polje where among other damage caused by the flooding, the river broke through the drainage canal of the Formin hydroelectric power plant and changed its course. The Ptujsko polje contains two fluvial terraces. In the area of Formin HPP, the lower terrace is 1.5 km wide and the surface as well as the groundwater gradient shift from west to east with the groundwater flowing parallel to the river. These characteristics contributed to the flooding and consequential breach in the embankment of the drainage canal. Several aspects of the recent floods are discussed including a critical reflection of data accessibility, possible causes and mechanisms behind it as well as the possibility of its forecasting. Synthesis of accessible data from open domain sources is performed with emphasis on geological conditions. Discharge and precipitation data from the data base of Slovenian Environment Agency are collected, reviewed and analyzed. The flood event itself is analyzed and described in detail. It is determined that the flood wave was different from the ones regulated by natural processes which points to an anthropogenic influence. In the paper we are focusing not only on the characteristics of a single event but try to interpret it in the context of a broader time scale using sources of similar past events of high precipitation and discharge, recorded flood events in the past and general flood characteristics of a river environment.

Extreme warm temperatures alter forest phenology and productivity in Europe.

PubMed

Crabbe, Richard A; Dash, Jadu; Rodriguez-Galiano, Victor F; Janous, Dalibor; Pavelka, Marian; Marek, Michal V

2016-09-01

Recent climate warming has shifted the timing of spring and autumn vegetation phenological events in the temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of Europe. In many areas spring phenological events start earlier and autumn events switch between earlier and later onset. Consequently, the length of growing season in mid and high latitudes of European forest is extended. However, the lagged effects (i.e. the impact of a warm spring or autumn on the subsequent phenological events) on vegetation phenology and productivity are less explored. In this study, we have (1) characterised extreme warm spring and extreme warm autumn events in Europe during 2003-2011, and (2) investigated if direct impact on forest phenology and productivity due to a specific warm event translated to a lagged effect in subsequent phenological events. We found that warmer events in spring occurred extensively in high latitude Europe producing a significant earlier onset of greening (OG) in broadleaf deciduous forest (BLDF) and mixed forest (MF). However, this earlier OG did not show any significant lagged effects on autumnal senescence. Needleleaf evergreen forest (NLEF), BLDF and MF showed a significantly delayed end of senescence (EOS) as a result of extreme warm autumn events; and in the following year's spring phenological events, OG started significantly earlier. Extreme warm spring events directly led to significant (p=0.0189) increases in the productivity of BLDF. In order to have a complete understanding of ecosystems response to warm temperature during key phenological events, particularly autumn events, the lagged effect on the next growing season should be considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate projection of synoptic patterns forming extremely high wind speed over the Barents Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surkova, Galina; Krylov, Aleksey

2017-04-01

Frequency of extreme weather events is not very high, but their consequences for the human well-being may be hazardous. These seldom events are not always well simulated by climate models directly. Sometimes it is more effective to analyze numerical projection of large-scale synoptic event generating extreme weather. For example, in mid-latitude surface wind speed depends mainly on the sea level pressure (SLP) field - its configuration and horizontal pressure gradient. This idea was implemented for analysis of extreme wind speed events over the Barents Sea. The calendar of high surface wind speed V (10 m above the surface) was prepared for events with V exceeding 99th percentile value in the central part of the Barents Sea. Analysis of probability distribution function of V was carried out on the base of ERA-Interim reanalysis data (6-hours, 0.75x0.75 degrees of latitude and longitude) for the period 1981-2010. Storm wind events number was found to be 240 days. Sea level pressure field over the sea and surrounding area was selected for each storm wind event. For the climate of the future (scenario RCP8.5), projections of SLP from CMIP5 numerical experiments were used. More than 20 climate models results of projected SLP (2006-2100) over the Barents Sea were correlated with modern storm wind SLP fields. Our calculations showed the positive tendency of annual frequency of storm SLP patterns over the Barents Sea by the end of 21st century.

Life stress events and alcohol misuse: distinguishing contributing stress events from consequential stress events.

PubMed

Hart, Kenneth E; Fazaa, Norman

2004-07-01

This study examined the relationship between life stress events and level of alcohol misuse using two stress indices. The first index consisted of stress events that are not likely to be caused by alcohol misuse (i.e., alcohol uncontaminated stress events). The second stress index consisted of items that were judged as being likely consequences of alcohol misuse (i.e., alcohol contaminated stress events). Results based on a questionnaire study of 378 undergraduates in 2000 showed that level of alcohol misuse was much more strongly related to alcohol contaminated life stress events than alcohol uncontaminated life events. Comparative analysis of the coefficients of determination indicated the effect size of the association to alcohol contaminated life stress events was 240% larger than the corresponding effect size for the association to alcohol uncontaminated life events. Results suggest that studies, which are tests of the tension reduction hypothesis, should employ greater methodological rigor to ensure measures of life stress events are not inadvertently assessing the consequences of alcohol misuse. The results highlight the need to distinguish between stressful life events that contribute to alcohol misuse and stressful life events that are consequential to alcohol misuse.

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any weighting within the risk concept, this has sufficient implications on the results of risk analyses. Thus, an equal and scale appropriated balance of those risk components is a fundamental key factor for effective natural hazard risk analyses. The results of such analyses inform especially decision makers in the insurance industry, the administration, and politicians on potential consequences and are the basis for appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, results (i) on an annual or probabilistic risk comprehension have to be distinguished from (ii) scenario-based analyses. The first analyses are based on statistics of periodically or episodically occurring events whereas the latter approach is especially applied for extreme, non-linear, stochastic events. Focusing on the needs especially of insurance companies, the first approaches are appropriate for premium pricing and reinsurance strategies with an annual perspective, whereas the latter is focusing on events with extreme loss burdens under worst-case criteria to guarantee accordant reinsurance coverage. Moreover, the demand of adequate loss model approaches and methods is strengthened by the risk-based requirements of the upcoming capital requirement directive Solvency II. The present study estimates the potential elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials and the Probable Maximum Losses (PMLs) of extreme natural hazards events in Tyrol (Austria) and considers adequatly the scale dependency and balanced application of the introduced risk components. Beside the introduced analysis an additionally portfolio analysis of a regional insurance company was executed. The geocoded insurance contracts of this portfolio analysis were the basis to estimate spatial, socio-economical and functional differentiated mean insurance values for the different risk categories of (i) buildings, (ii) contents or inventory, (iii) vehicles, and (iv) persons in the study area. The estimated mean insurance values were incorporated with additional GIS and statistic data to a comprehensive property-by-property geodatabase of the existing elements and values. This stock of elements and values geodatabase is furthermore the consistent basis for all natural hazard analyses and enables the comparison of the results. The study follows the general accepted moduls (i) hazard analysis, (ii) exposition analysis, and (iii) consequence analysis, whereas the exposition analysis estimates the elements at risk with their corresponding damage potentials and the consequence analysis estimates the PMLs. This multi-hazard analysis focuses on process types with a high to extreme potential of negative consequences on a regional scale. In this context, (i) floodings, (ii) rockslides with the potential of corresponding consequence effects (backwater ponding and outburst flood), (iii) earthquakes, (iv) hail events, and (v) winter storms were considered as hazard processes. Based on general hazard analyses (hazard maps) concrete scenarios and their spatial affectedness were determined. For the different hazard processes, different vulnerability approaches were considered to demonstrate their sensitivity and implication on the results. Thus, no absolute values of losses but probable loss ranges were estimated. It can be shown, that the most serious amount of losses would arise from extreme earthquake events with loss burdens up to more than € 7 bn. solely on buildings and inventory. Possible extreme flood events could lead to losses between € 2 and 2.5 bn., whereas a severe hail swath which affects the central Inn valley could result in losses of ca. € 455 mill. (thereof € 285 mill. on vehicles). The potential most serious rockslide with additional consequence effects would result in losses up to ca. € 185 mill. and extreme winter storms can induce losses between € 100 mill. and 150 mill..

Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of unknown parameters in hazardous materials transportation risk assessment.

PubMed

Pet-Armacost, J J; Sepulveda, J; Sakude, M

1999-12-01

The US Department of Transportation was interested in the risks associated with transporting Hydrazine in tanks with and without relief devices. Hydrazine is both highly toxic and flammable, as well as corrosive. Consequently, there was a conflict as to whether a relief device should be used or not. Data were not available on the impact of relief devices on release probabilities or the impact of Hydrazine on the likelihood of fires and explosions. In this paper, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis of the unknown parameters was used to assess the risks associated with highway transport of Hydrazine. To help determine whether or not relief devices should be used, fault trees and event trees were used to model the sequences of events that could lead to adverse consequences during transport of Hydrazine. The event probabilities in the event trees were derived as functions of the parameters whose effects were not known. The impacts of these parameters on the risk of toxic exposures, fires, and explosions were analyzed through a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis and analyzed statistically through an analysis of variance. The analysis allowed the determination of which of the unknown parameters had a significant impact on the risks. It also provided the necessary support to a critical transportation decision even though the values of several key parameters were not known.

Social anxiety and drinking refusal self-efficacy moderate the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences

PubMed Central

Kenney, Shannon R.; Napper, Lucy E.; LaBrie, Joseph W.

2015-01-01

Background Participation in drinking games is associated with excessive drinking and alcohol risks. Despite the growing literature documenting the ubiquity and consequences of drinking games, limited research has examined the influence of psychosocial factors on the experience of negative consequences as the result of drinking game participation. Objectives The current event-level study examined the relationships among drinking game participation, social anxiety, drinking refusal self-efficacy (DRSE) and alcohol-related consequences in a sample of college students. Methods Participants (n =976) reported on their most recent drinking occasion in the past month in which they did not preparty. Results After controlling for sex, age, and typical drinking, higher levels of social anxiety, lower levels of DRSE, and playing drinking games predicted greater alcohol-related consequences. Moreover, two-way interactions (Social Anxiety × Drinking Games, DRSE × Drinking Games) demonstrated that social anxiety and DRSE each moderated the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences. Participation in drinking games resulted in more alcohol problems for students with high social anxiety, but not low social anxiety. Students with low DRSE experienced high levels of consequences regardless of whether they participated in drinking games; however, drinking game participation was associated with more consequences for students confident in their ability to resist drinking. Conclusion Findings highlight the important role that social anxiety and DRSE play in drinking game-related risk, and hence provide valuable implications for screening at-risk students and designing targeted harm reduction interventions that address social anxiety and drink refusal in the context of drinking games. PMID:25192207

Social anxiety and drinking refusal self-efficacy moderate the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences.

PubMed

Kenney, Shannon R; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

2014-09-01

Participation in drinking games is associated with excessive drinking and alcohol risks. Despite the growing literature documenting the ubiquity and consequences of drinking games, limited research has examined the influence of psychosocial factors on the experience of negative consequences as the result of drinking game participation. The current event-level study examined the relationships among drinking game participation, social anxiety, drinking refusal self-efficacy (DRSE) and alcohol-related consequences in a sample of college students. Participants (n = 976) reported on their most recent drinking occasion in the past month in which they did not preparty. After controlling for sex, age, and typical drinking, higher levels of social anxiety, lower levels of DRSE, and playing drinking games predicted greater alcohol-related consequences. Moreover, two-way interactions (Social Anxiety × Drinking Games, DRSE × Drinking Games) demonstrated that social anxiety and DRSE each moderated the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences. Participation in drinking games resulted in more alcohol problems for students with high social anxiety, but not low social anxiety. Students with low DRSE experienced high levels of consequences regardless of whether they participated in drinking games; however, drinking game participation was associated with more consequences for students confident in their ability to resist drinking. Findings highlight the important role that social anxiety and DRSE play in drinking game-related risk, and hence provide valuable implications for screening at-risk students and designing targeted harm reduction interventions that address social anxiety and drink refusal in the context of drinking games.

Estimate of neutrons event-by-event in DREAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauptman, John; DREAM Collaboration

2009-04-01

We have measured the contribution of neutrons to hadronic showers in the DREAM module event-by-event as a means to estimate the event-by-event fluctuations in binding energy losses by hadrons as they break up nuclei of the Cu absorber. We make a preliminary assessment of the consequences for hadronic energy resolution in dual-readout calorimeters.

The social impact of the snowfall of 8 March 2010 in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaro, J.; Llasat, M. C.; Aran, M.

2010-09-01

The snowfall of 8 March 2010 affected almost all Catalonia, but especially the northeast where snow thickness was between 20 and 30 cm, locally with higher values up to 60 cm. Strong winds followed the event, exceeding 90 km/h in some places. As a result, infrastructures and public services, also private properties were damaged. Thousands of people were left stranded by the circulatory collapse, suspensions of railway service and by falling branches or trees on road infrastructures blocking accesses to residential areas. The regional government approved funds of 21.4 millions of Euros to mitigate the damage caused by this event, mainly invested in forest cleanup operations and in repairing road damage. The social impact of this event has been so high that 210 news have been published in a newspaper until 23 April, 190 of them during the month of March. From the study of the characteristics of this episode it can be stated that in the coast and pre-costal area, temperature at the same moment of precipitation was between 0ºC and 2ºC and humidity was high. In these zones, the type of precipitation was wet snow. It has to be considered that the combination of wet snow and wind can be a risk because of the ice-weight accumulated on objects (trees, electricity pylons...). As a consequence important damage happened in power network with significant collateral effects and more than 450,000 customers were affected by a power outage during some days. In this study we will compare the consequences of this event with others by means of information published in press. As a result, some set of consequences that are repeated regardless of the magnitude of the phenomenon will be identified. Finally, this event is also an example of the incision of social networks. This snowfall has been classified by mass media as the first "snowfall 2.0": 81600 entrances in Google, 132 Facebook groups and 750 videos made by amateurs in internet. From this study, we will present some reflexions that could be useful to improve the snow emergency plan in Catalonia, released in 2004, and mitigating the effects of future snow storms. A campaign focused on motivate population in order to increase more social commitment in these events, seems to be necessary to prevent avoidable risks. Information campaigns and some educational tasks have to be carried out to make warnings and forecasts reports clearer to citizens and to increase population sensitivity in emergency situations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Liang; Winn, Joshua N.; Rappaport, Saul

The T Tauri star PTFO 8-8695 exhibits periodic fading events that have been interpreted as the transits of a giant planet on a precessing orbit. Here we present three tests of the planet hypothesis. First, we sought evidence for the secular changes in light-curve morphology that are predicted to be a consequence of orbital precession. We observed 28 fading events spread over several years and did not see the expected changes. Instead, we found that the fading events are not strictly periodic. Second, we attempted to detect the planet's radiation, based on infrared observations spanning the predicted times of occultations.more » We ruled out a signal of the expected amplitude. Third, we attempted to detect the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect by performing high-resolution spectroscopy throughout a fading event. No effect was seen at the expected level, ruling out most (but not all) possible orientations for the hypothetical planetary orbit. Our spectroscopy also revealed strong, time-variable, high-velocity Hα and Ca H and K emission features. All these observations cast doubt on the planetary hypothesis, and suggest instead that the fading events represent starspots, eclipses by circumstellar dust, or occultations of an accretion hotspot.« less

Decisions to Attend and Drink at Party Events: The Effects of Incentives and Disincentives and Lifetime Alcohol and Antisocial Problems.

PubMed

Finn, Peter R; Gerst, Kyle; Lake, Allison; Bogg, Tim

2017-09-01

Alcohol use disorders are associated with patterns of impulsive/risky decision making on behavioral economic decision tasks, but little is known about the factors affecting drinking-related decisions. The effects of incentives and disincentives to attend and drink at hypothetical alcohol-related party events as a function of lifetime (LT) alcohol and antisocial problems were examined in a sample of 434 young adults who varied widely in LT alcohol and antisocial problems. Moderate and high disincentives substantially discouraged decisions to attend the party events and were associated with decisions to drink less at the party events. High versus low party incentives were associated with more attendance decisions. LT antisocial problems were associated with being less deterred from attending by moderate and high disincentives. LT alcohol problems were associated with greater attendance at high party incentive contexts. LT alcohol problems were associated with drinking more at the majority of events; however, the results indicate that young adults with high levels of alcohol problems moderate their drinking in response to moderate and high disincentives. Finally, attendance and drinking decisions on this hypothetical task were significantly related to actual drinking practices. The results suggest that antisocial symptoms are associated with a reduced sensitivity to the potential negative consequences of drinking, while alcohol problems are associated with a greater sensitivity to the rewarding aspects of partying. The results also underline the value of directly assessing drinking-related decisions in different hypothetical contexts as well as assessing decisions about attendance at risky drinking events in addition to drinking amount decisions. Copyright © 2017 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Experiences of an Engineer working in Reactor Safety and Emergency Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, Douglas

2015-04-01

The U.S. Department of Energy's Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center Consequence Management Home Team (FRMAC/CMHT) Assessment Scientist's roles, responsibilities incorporate the FRMAC with other federal, state, and local agencies during a nuclear/radiological emergency. Before the Consequence Management Response Team arrives on-site, the FRMAC/CMHT provides technical and logistical support to the FRMAC and to state, local, and tribal authorities following a nuclear/radiological event. The FRMAC/CMHT support includes analyzing event data, evaluating hazards that relate to protection of the public, and providing event information and data products to protective action decision makers. The Assessment Scientist is the primary scientist responsible for performing calculations and analyses and communicating results to the field during any activation of the FRMAC/CMHT assets. As such, the FRMAC/CMHT Assessment Scientist has a number of different roles and responsibilities to fill depending upon the type of response that is required. Additionally, the Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Consequence Assessment Team (CAT) Consequence Assessor roles, responsibilities involve hazardous materials operational emergency at SNL New Mexico facilities (SNL/NM) which include loss of control over radioactive, chemical, or explosive hazardous materials. When a hazardous materials operational emergency occurs, key decisions must be made in order to regain control over the hazards, protect personnel from the effects of the hazards, and mitigate impacts on operations, facilities, property, and the environment. Many of these decisions depend in whole or in part on the evaluation of potential consequences from a loss of control over the hazards. As such, the CAT has a number of different roles and responsibilities to fill depending upon the type of response that is required. Primary consequence-based decisions supported by the CAT during a hazardous materials operational emergency at SNL/NM include: (1) Onsite Protective Actions (2) Offsite Protective Action Recommendations (3) Event categorization (4) Event classification Other consequence-based decisions supported by the CAT include: (1) Response planning and operations (2) Event termination (3) Reentry planning and operations (4) Recovery planning and operations Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.

An event-based approach for examining the effects of wildland fire decisions on communities

Treesearch

Stephen F. McCool; James A. Burchfield; Daniel R. Williams; Matthew S. Carroll

2006-01-01

Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal...

Are triggering rates of labquakes universal? Inferring triggering rates from incomplete information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baró, Jordi; Davidsen, Jörn

2017-12-01

The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used and are often even indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes. While the event-event triggering rates or aftershock rates behave pretty much identical for all rock fracture experiments at short times, this is not the case for later times. Here, we discuss how these differences can be a consequence of the aftershock identification method used and show that the true aftershock rates might have two distinct regimes. Specifically, tests on a modified Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model show that the model rates cannot be correctly inferred at late times based on temporal information only if the activity rates or the branching ratio are high. We also discuss both the effect of the two distinct regimes in the aftershock rates and the effect of the background rate on the inter-event time distribution. Our findings should be applicable for inferring event-event triggering rates for many other types of triggering and branching processes as well.

Disentangling the effects of low self-esteem and stressful events on depression: findings from three longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Meier, Laurenz L

2009-08-01

Diathesis-stress models of depression suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events jointly influence the development of depressive affect. More specifically, the self-esteem buffering hypothesis states that, in the face of challenging life circumstances, individuals with low self-esteem are prone to depression because they lack sufficient coping resources, whereas those with high self-esteem are able to cope effectively and consequently avoid spiraling downward into depression. The authors used data from 3 longitudinal studies of adolescents and young adults, who were assessed 4 times over a 3-year period (Study 1; N = 359), 3 times over a 6-week period (Study 2; N = 249), and 4 times over a 6-year period (Study 3; N = 2,403). In all 3 studies, low self-esteem and stressful events independently predicted subsequent depression but did not interact in the prediction. Thus, the results did not support the self-esteem buffering hypothesis but suggest that low self-esteem and stressful events operate as independent risk factors for depression. In addition, the authors found evidence in all 3 studies that depression, but not low self-esteem, is reciprocally related to stressful events, suggesting that individuals high in depression are more inclined to subsequently experience stressful events.

[Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

PubMed

Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

2014-02-01

In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

Nonvolatile GaAs Random-Access Memory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katti, Romney R.; Stadler, Henry L.; Wu, Jiin-Chuan

1994-01-01

Proposed random-access integrated-circuit electronic memory offers nonvolatile magnetic storage. Bits stored magnetically and read out with Hall-effect sensors. Advantages include short reading and writing times and high degree of immunity to both single-event upsets and permanent damage by ionizing radiation. Use of same basic material for both transistors and sensors simplifies fabrication process, with consequent benefits in increased yield and reduced cost.

The Probabilities of Unique Events

PubMed Central

Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Lotstein, Max; Johnson-Laird, Phil

2012-01-01

Many theorists argue that the probabilities of unique events, even real possibilities such as President Obama's re-election, are meaningless. As a consequence, psychologists have seldom investigated them. We propose a new theory (implemented in a computer program) in which such estimates depend on an intuitive non-numerical system capable only of simple procedures, and a deliberative system that maps intuitions into numbers. The theory predicts that estimates of the probabilities of conjunctions should often tend to split the difference between the probabilities of the two conjuncts. We report two experiments showing that individuals commit such violations of the probability calculus, and corroborating other predictions of the theory, e.g., individuals err in the same way even when they make non-numerical verbal estimates, such as that an event is highly improbable. PMID:23056224

Behavioral health in Antarctica: implications for long-duration space missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lugg, Desmond J.

2005-01-01

Ideally, evidence from long-duration spaceflight should be used to predict likely occurrences of behavioral health events and for planning management strategies for such events. With small numbers of space travelers, and limited long-duration missions of a year or more, Earth analogues and simulations must be used as the evidence base, despite such analogues lacking microgravity, radiation, rapidly altering photoperiodicity, and fidelity to space. Antarctic health data are reviewed and an assessment made of the likely frequency of behavioral health events. Based on the Antarctic evidence, the likelihood of behavioral health problems in space is low. However, such cases may be serious and of high consequence, placing considerable demands on the mission crew and ground support to achieve a successful outcome, given the availability of pharmaceuticals and resources.

Associations of patient safety outcomes with models of nursing care organization at unit level in hospitals.

PubMed

Dubois, Carl-Ardy; D'amour, Danielle; Tchouaket, Eric; Clarke, Sean; Rivard, Michèle; Blais, Régis

2013-04-01

To examine the associations of four distinct nursing care organizational models with patient safety outcomes. Cross-sectional correlational study. Using a standardized protocol, patients' records were screened retrospectively to detect occurrences of patient safety-related events. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the associations of those events with four nursing care organizational models. Twenty-two medical units in 11 hospitals in Quebec, Canada, were clustered into 4 nursing care organizational models: 2 professional models and 2 functional models. Two thousand six hundred and ninety-nine were patients hospitalized for at least 48 h on the selected units. Composite of six safety-related events widely-considered sensitive to nursing care: medication administration errors, falls, pneumonia, urinary tract infection, unjustified restraints and pressure ulcers. Events were ultimately sorted into two categories: events 'without major' consequences for patients and events 'with' consequences. After controlling for patient characteristics, patient risk of experiencing one or more events (of any severity) and of experiencing an event with consequences was significantly lower, by factors of 25-52%, in both professional models than in the functional models. Event rates for both functional models were statistically indistinguishable from each other. Data suggest that nursing care organizational models characterized by contrasting staffing, work environment and innovation characteristics may be associated with differential risk for hospitalized patients. The two professional models, which draw mainly on registered nurses (RNs) to deliver nursing services and reflect stronger support for nurses' professional practice, were associated with lower risks than are the two functional models.

Constructive and Unconstructive Repetitive Thought

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watkins, Edward R.

2008-01-01

The author reviews research showing that repetitive thought (RT) can have constructive or unconstructive consequences. The main unconstructive consequences of RT are (a) depression, (b) anxiety, and (c) difficulties in physical health. The main constructive consequences of RT are (a) recovery from upsetting and traumatic events, (b) adaptive…

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M.; Laporte, F.; Moury, M.; Newman, L.; Shepperd, R.

2017-01-01

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Jesensek, Dusan; Garza, John Carlos; Crivelli, Alain J

2017-02-08

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events. Tests on empirical data of theory-based predictions on the consequences of extreme climate events are thus necessary to understand the adaptive potential of species and the overarching risks associated with all aspects of climate change. We tested predictions on the genetic and life-history consequences of extreme climate events in two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus that have experienced severe demographic bottlenecks due to flash floods. We combined long-term field and genotyping data with pedigree reconstruction in a theory-based framework. Our results show that after flash floods, reproduction occurred at a younger age in one population. In both populations, we found the highest reproductive variance in the first cohort born after the floods due to a combination of fewer parents and higher early survival of offspring. A small number of parents allowed for demographic recovery after the floods, but the genetic bottleneck further reduced genetic diversity in both populations. Our results also elucidate some of the mechanisms responsible for a greater prevalence of faster life histories after the extreme event. © 2017 The Author(s).

40 CFR 194.33 - Consideration of drilling events in performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Consideration of drilling events in... and Re-certification Containment Requirements § 194.33 Consideration of drilling events in performance... shall be used in assessing the likelihood and consequences of drilling events, and the results of such...

40 CFR 194.33 - Consideration of drilling events in performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2012-07-01 2011-07-01 true Consideration of drilling events in... and Re-certification Containment Requirements § 194.33 Consideration of drilling events in performance... shall be used in assessing the likelihood and consequences of drilling events, and the results of such...

40 CFR 194.33 - Consideration of drilling events in performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Consideration of drilling events in... and Re-certification Containment Requirements § 194.33 Consideration of drilling events in performance... shall be used in assessing the likelihood and consequences of drilling events, and the results of such...

40 CFR 194.33 - Consideration of drilling events in performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Consideration of drilling events in... and Re-certification Containment Requirements § 194.33 Consideration of drilling events in performance... shall be used in assessing the likelihood and consequences of drilling events, and the results of such...

Application of Adaptive Beamforming to Signal Observations at the Mt. Meron Array, Israel

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, D. B.

2010-06-07

The Mt. Meron array consists of 16 stations spanning an aperture of 3-4 kilometers in northern Israel. The array is situated in a region of substantial topographic relief, and is surrounded by settlements at close range (Figure 1). Consequently the level of noise at the array is high, which requires efforts at mitigation if distant regional events of moderate magnitude are to be observed. This note describes an initial application of two classic adaptive beamforming algorithms to data from the array to observe P waves from 5 events east of the array ranging in distance from 1100- 2150 kilometers.

Strategies for Improving Maintenance and Generalization of Academic Skills--So Students "Don't Leave Class without It."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gable, Robert A.; And Others

1992-01-01

An instructional process for facilitating maintenance and generalization of academic skills is presented, using the ABCD'S (Antecedent Events, Behavior, Consequent Events, Data, and Setting Events) Generalization Intervention Model. (JDD)

Anticipating and addressing event-specific alcohol consumption among adolescents.

PubMed

Pettigrew, Simone; Biagioni, Nicole; Jongenelis, Michelle I

2016-07-29

Various specific events and celebrations are associated with excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. End-of-school celebrations such as Schoolies in Australia are of particular concern given high levels of documented harm among underage and young drinkers. The present study investigated high school students' expectations of their Schoolies celebrations to inform future interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among members of this vulnerable group and other young people involved in similar rites of passage. A link to an online survey was distributed via high schools and Schoolies-related websites. The survey included qualitative questions that invited respondents to discuss (i) aspects of Schoolies they were looking forward to most and least and (ii) their perceptions of the likely consequences if they refrained from consuming alcohol during the event. In total, 435 students provided responses. Respondents discussed the role of Schoolies in marking their transition to adulthood. Their comments revealed a cross-temporal focus indicating that Schoolies is simultaneously symbolic of the past, present, and future. Through its ability to enhance social interaction, alcohol was perceived to have a vital role in realising the potential of this event to signify and facilitate this temporal progression. Results suggest interventions that treat Schoolies as an isolated event that occurs in specific locations may fail to appreciate the extent to which these events transcend time for those involved. Instead, harm reduction is likely to involve a reconceptualisation of the event among both participants and authority figures to facilitate the provision of alternative pastimes to drinking during Schoolies that yield similar social benefits.

Dissociative tendencies and individual differences in high hypnotic suggestibility.

PubMed

Terhune, Devin Blair; Cardeña, Etzel; Lindgren, Magnus

2011-03-01

Inconsistencies in the relationship between dissociation and hypnosis may result from heterogeneity among highly suggestible individuals, in particular the existence of distinct highly suggestible subtypes that are of relevance to models of psychopathology and the consequences of trauma. This study contrasted highly suggestible subtypes high or low in dissociation on measures of hypnotic responding, cognitive functioning, and psychopathology. Twenty-one low suggestible (LS), 19 low dissociative highly suggestible (LDHS), and 11 high dissociative highly suggestible (HDHS) participants were administered hypnotic suggestibility scales and completed measures of free recall, working memory capacity, imagery, fantasy-proneness, psychopathology, and exposure to stressful life events. HDHS participants were more responsive to positive and negative hallucination suggestions and experienced greater involuntariness during hypnotic responding. They also exhibited impaired working memory capacity, elevated pathological fantasy and dissociative symptomatology, and a greater incidence of exposure to stressful life events. In contrast, LDHS participants displayed superior object visual imagery. These results provide further evidence for two highly suggestible subtypes: a dissociative subtype characterised by deficits in executive functioning and a predisposition to psychopathology, and a subtype that exhibits superior imagery and no observable deficits in functioning.

How Unusual Was The Storm Surge Season Of 2013-14 in the UK?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haigh, I. D.; Wadey, M.; Gallop, S. L.; Nicholls, R. J.; Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

When significant coastal flooding occurs along low-lying, highly populated, and/or developed coastlines, the impacts can be devastating and long lasting with wide ranging social, economic, and environmental consequences. The UK has a long history of severe coastal flooding, with major events including those that occurred in 1607, 1703 and 1953. The problems associated with coastal flooding again reached the forefront during the latest winter of 2013-2014 when the UK experienced a series of very severe events. What is noteworthy about this most recent winter period is the: (1) large number of significantly coastal flooding events occurring one after another over a relatively short period of time; and (2) the large areas of coastline affected. Extreme events are rarely assessed in terms of 'clustering', despite the fact this leads to amplified flood damages. The spatial dependence in flood hazard (i.e. simultaneous flooding in multiple locations) is now receiving more attention, motivated by concern from re-insurance, infrastructure reliability and emergency response, but understanding in this area is still limited. In this paper we assess extreme high water events and their temporal clustering and footprint around the UK, using records from the UK national network of 40 tide gauges, the longest of which extends back 100 years. We identify 100 distinct events, during which water levels exceeded the 1 in 5 year return period. We examine these events in detail and assess the coastal flooding that occurred during each event.

Event-based Sensing for Space Situational Awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, G.; Afshar, S.; van Schaik, A.; Wabnitz, A.; Bessell, T.; Rutten, M.; Morreale, B.

A revolutionary type of imaging device, known as a silicon retina or event-based sensor, has recently been developed and is gaining in popularity in the field of artificial vision systems. These devices are inspired by a biological retina and operate in a significantly different way to traditional CCD-based imaging sensors. While a CCD produces frames of pixel intensities, an event-based sensor produces a continuous stream of events, each of which is generated when a pixel detects a change in log light intensity. These pixels operate asynchronously and independently, producing an event-based output with high temporal resolution. There are also no fixed exposure times, allowing these devices to offer a very high dynamic range independently for each pixel. Additionally, these devices offer high-speed, low power operation and a sparse spatiotemporal output. As a consequence, the data from these sensors must be interpreted in a significantly different way to traditional imaging sensors and this paper explores the advantages this technology provides for space imaging. The applicability and capabilities of event-based sensors for SSA applications are demonstrated through telescope field trials. Trial results have confirmed that the devices are capable of observing resident space objects from LEO through to GEO orbital regimes. Significantly, observations of RSOs were made during both day-time and nighttime (terminator) conditions without modification to the camera or optics. The event based sensor’s ability to image stars and satellites during day-time hours offers a dramatic capability increase for terrestrial optical sensors. This paper shows the field testing and validation of two different architectures of event-based imaging sensors. An eventbased sensor’s asynchronous output has an intrinsically low data-rate. In addition to low-bandwidth communications requirements, the low weight, low-power and high-speed make them ideally suitable to meeting the demanding challenges required by space-based SSA systems. Results from these experiments and the systems developed highlight the applicability of event-based sensors to ground and space-based SSA tasks.

Managing and understanding risk perception of surface leaks from CCS sites: risk assessment for emerging technologies and low-probability, high-consequence events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anagnostou, E. N.; Seyyedi, H.; Beighley, E., II; McCollum, J.

2014-12-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a partial solution to the greenhouse gas emissions problem. As CCS has become mainstream, researchers have raised multiple risk assessment issues typical of emerging technologies. In our research, we examine issues occuring when stored carbon dioxide (CO2) migrates to the near-surface or surface. We believe that both the public misperception and the physical reality of potential environmental, health, and commercial impacts of leak events from such subsurface sites have prevented widespread adoption of CCS. This paper is presented in three parts; the first is an evaluation of the systemic risk of a CCS site CO2 leak and models indicating potential likelihood of a leakage event. As the likelihood of a CCS site leak is stochastic and nonlinear, we present several Bayesian simulations for leak events based on research done with other low-probability, high-consequence gaseous pollutant releases. Though we found a large, acute leak to be exceptionally rare, we demonstrate potential for a localized, chronic leak at a CCS site. To that end, we present the second piece of this paper. Using a combination of spatio-temporal models and reaction-path models, we demonstrate the interplay between leak migrations, material interactions, and atmospheric dispersion for leaks of various duration and volume. These leak-event scenarios have implications for human, environmental, and economic health; they also have a significant impact on implementation support. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future, and this is what we address in the final part of this paper. We demonstrate that CCS remains unknown to the general public in the United States. Despite its unknown state, we provide survey findings -analyzed in Slovic and Weber's 2002 framework - that show a high unknown, high dread risk perception of leaks from a CCS site. Secondary findings are a conflation of CCS with the more advanced, widespread technology hydraulic fracturing and corresponding strong risk associations. We conclude with suggestions on how to integrate modeling results into public conversations to improve risk awareness and we provide preliminary policy recommendations to increase public support for CCS.

Managing and understanding risk perception of surface leaks from CCS sites: risk assessment for emerging technologies and low-probability, high-consequence events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustin, C. M.

2015-12-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a partial solution to the greenhouse gas emissions problem. As CCS has become mainstream, researchers have raised multiple risk assessment issues typical of emerging technologies. In our research, we examine issues occuring when stored carbon dioxide (CO2) migrates to the near-surface or surface. We believe that both the public misperception and the physical reality of potential environmental, health, and commercial impacts of leak events from such subsurface sites have prevented widespread adoption of CCS. This paper is presented in three parts; the first is an evaluation of the systemic risk of a CCS site CO2 leak and models indicating potential likelihood of a leakage event. As the likelihood of a CCS site leak is stochastic and nonlinear, we present several Bayesian simulations for leak events based on research done with other low-probability, high-consequence gaseous pollutant releases. Though we found a large, acute leak to be exceptionally rare, we demonstrate potential for a localized, chronic leak at a CCS site. To that end, we present the second piece of this paper. Using a combination of spatio-temporal models and reaction-path models, we demonstrate the interplay between leak migrations, material interactions, and atmospheric dispersion for leaks of various duration and volume. These leak-event scenarios have implications for human, environmental, and economic health; they also have a significant impact on implementation support. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future, and this is what we address in the final part of this paper. We demonstrate that CCS remains unknown to the general public in the United States. Despite its unknown state, we provide survey findings -analyzed in Slovic and Weber's 2002 framework - that show a high unknown, high dread risk perception of leaks from a CCS site. Secondary findings are a conflation of CCS with the more advanced, widespread technology hydraulic fracturing and corresponding strong risk associations. We conclude with suggestions on how to integrate modeling results into public conversations to improve risk awareness and we provide preliminary policy recommendations to increase public support for CCS.

On the relationship between boreal forest browning and tree mortality: insights from Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Long-term satellite measurements of vegetation productivity in high-latitude environments have revealed profound and widespread responses to climate warming. Although warmer and longer summers are causing the Arctic to "green", many regions of boreal forest are showing the opposite response, particularly since the mid 1990s. This "browning" phenomenon was generally unexpected at the time of discovery, is not captured by global models, and may have profound consequences for the boreal biome. A number of studies have linked satellite-based browning trends to tree productivity through tree rings. However, our understanding of the environmental controls and ecosystem consequences of browning remains remarkably limited. Here we examine to what extent browning patterns are related to a fundamental demographic process: tree mortality. We focus on a long-term inventory database in Alaska to characterize mortality events and trends from 1994 to 2014. These patterns were related to vegetation productivity indices from MODIS and the AVHRR-based GIMMS3g data set. We explore three central hypotheses: (1) mortality events are likely to be preceded by 5-10 year browning trends ("press stress"), (2) mortality events are likely to be preceded by distinct pulses of low productivity ("pulse stress"), and (3) long-term trends in mortality are related to long-term browning. Within our study region, which encompasses eastern Alaskan from the Pacific coastal mountains up through the interior, we find strong evidence for the first two hypotheses. The third is weakly supported, which may be a consequence of the episodic nature of mortality in the region. However, preliminary analyses in the southern Canadian boreal reveal a markedly stronger relationship between long-term mortality and browning. Taken together, our study suggests a robust correlation between satellite-based metrics of productivity and forest demography; one that has consequences for forest composition, carbon stocks, and early signs of a biome shift in boreal forests.

Joint Effect of Alcohol Consumption and Educational Level on Alcohol-related Medical Events: A Danish Register-based Cohort Study.

PubMed

Christensen, Helene Nordahl; Diderichsen, Finn; Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur; Lange, Theis; Andersen, Per Kragh; Osler, Merete; Prescott, Eva; Tjønneland, Anne; Rod, Naja Hulvej; Andersen, Ingelise

2017-11-01

Alcohol-related mortality is more pronounced in lower than in higher socioeconomic groups in Western countries. Part of the explanation is differences in drinking patterns. However, differences in vulnerability to health consequences of alcohol consumption across socioeconomic groups may also play a role. We investigated the joint effect of alcohol consumption and educational level on the rate of alcohol-related medical events. We pooled seven prospective cohorts from Denmark that enrolled 74,278 men and women age 30-70 years (study period, 1981 to 2009). We measured alcohol consumption at baseline using self-administrated questionnaires. Information on highest attained education 1 year before study entry and hospital and mortality data on alcohol-related medical events were obtained through linkage to nationwide registries. We performed analyses using the Aalen additive hazards model. During follow-up (1,085,049 person-years), a total of 1718 alcohol-related events occurred. The joint effect of very high alcohol consumption (>21 [>28] drinks per week in women [men]) and low education on alcohol-related events exceeded the sum of their separate effects. Among men, we observed 289 (95% confidence interval = 123, 457) extra events per 100,000 person-years owing to education-alcohol interaction (P < 0.001). Similarly, among women, we observed 239 (95% confidence interval = 90, 388) extra events per 100,000 person-years owing to this interaction (P < 0.001). High alcohol consumption is associated with a higher risk of alcohol-related medical events among those with low compared with high education. This interaction may be explained by differences in vulnerability and drinking patterns across educational groups.See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B267.

Risk Management of Future Foreign Conflict Intervention

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

subsequent tsunami-induced disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant on March 11, 2012, was a stark reminder that the residual risk of a...com- munity, risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences. awareness of the consequences of various actions or events is...patently necessary for informed decisionmaking on public safety. If there is a core meltdown of a nuclear reactor, there will be a massive release

Understanding Setting Events: What They Are and How to Identify Them

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Iovannone, Rose; Anderson, Cynthia; Scott, Terrance

2017-01-01

A functional behavior assessment is a process for identifying events in the environment that reliably precede (i.e., antecedents) and follow (i.e., consequences) problem behavior. This information is used to develop an intervention plan. There are two types of antecedents--triggers and setting events. Triggers are antecedent events that happen…

African American Children's Affective Attributions and Consequences Regarding Sociomoral Events

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Humphries, Marisha L.

2013-01-01

Research Findings: This study examined 56 young (prekindergarten through 2nd grade) urban-dwelling African American children's understanding of the affective attributions and consequences of 3 types of sociomoral rule systems: prosocial, active, and inhibitive morality. It also tested the relationship of affective attributions and consequences to…

Component flow processes at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, analysed using episodic concentration/discharge relationship

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evans, C.; Davies, T.D.; Murdoch, Peter S.

1999-01-01

Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event-event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.Plots of solute concentration against discharge have been used to relate stream hydrochemical variations to processes of flow generation, using data collected at four streams in the Catskill Mountains, New York, during the Episodic Response Project of the US Environmental Protection Agency. Results suggest that a two-component system of shallow and deep saturated subsurface flow, in which the two components respond simultaneously during hydrologic events, may be applicable to the study basins. Using a large natural sea-salt sodium input as a tracer for precipitation, it is argued that an additional distinction can be made between pre-event and event water travelling along the shallow subsurface flow path. Pre-event water is thought to be displaced by infiltrating event water, which becomes dominant on the falling limb of the hydrograph. Where, as appears to be the case for sulfate, a solute equilibrates rapidly within the soil, the pre-event - event water distinction is unimportant. However, for some solutes there are clear and consistent compositional differences between water from the two sources, evident as a hysteresis loop in concentration-discharge plots. Nitrate and acidity, in particular, appear to be elevated in event water following percolation through the organic horizon. Consequently, the most acidic, high nitrate conditions during an episode generally occur after peak discharge. A simple conceptual model of episode runoff generation is presented on the basis of these results.

Episodic memory in former professional football players with a history of concussion: an event-related functional neuroimaging study.

PubMed

Ford, Jaclyn H; Giovanello, Kelly S; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

2013-10-15

Previous research has demonstrated that sport-related concussions can have short-term effects on cognitive processes, but the long-term consequences are less understood and warrant more research. This study was the first to use event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine long-term differences in neural activity during memory tasks in former athletes who have sustained multiple sport-related concussions. In an event-related fMRI study, former football players reporting multiple sport-related concussions (i.e., three or more) were compared with players who reported fewer than three concussions during a memory paradigm examining item memory (i.e., memory for the particular elements of an event) and relational memory (i.e., memory for the relationships between elements). Behaviorally, we observed that concussion history did not significantly affect behavioral performance, because persons in the low and high concussion groups had equivalent performance on both memory tasks, and in addition, that concussion history was not associated with any behavioral memory measures. Despite demonstrating equivalent behavioral performance, the two groups of former players demonstrated different neural recruitment patterns during relational memory retrieval, suggesting that multiple concussions may be associated with functional inefficiencies in the relational memory network. In addition, the number of previous concussions significantly correlated with functional activity in a number of brain regions, including the medial temporal lobe and inferior parietal lobe. Our results provide important insights in understanding the long-term functional consequences of sustaining multiple sports-related concussions.

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

PubMed

Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David

2018-06-01

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

Does Drinking Location Matter? Profiles of Risky Single-Occasion Drinking by Location and Alcohol-Related Harm among Young Men.

PubMed

Bähler, Caroline; Dey, Michelle; Dermota, Petra; Foster, Simon; Gmel, Gerhard; Mohler-Kuo, Meichun

2014-01-01

In adolescents and young adults, acute consequences like injuries account for a substantial proportion of alcohol-related harm, especially in risky single-occasion (RSO) drinkers. The primary aim of the study was to characterize different drinking profiles in RSO drinkers according to drinking locations and their relationship to negative, alcohol-related consequences. The sample consisted of 2746 young men from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors who had reported drinking six or more drinks on a single-occasion at least monthly over the preceding 12 months. Principal component analysis on the frequency and amount of drinking at 11 different locations was conducted, and 2 distinguishable components emerged: a non-party-dimension (loading high on theater/cinema, sport clubs, other clubs/societies, restaurants, and sport events) and a party-dimension (loading high on someone else's home, pubs/bars, discos/nightclubs, outdoor public places, special events, and home). Differential impacts of drinking location profiles were observed on severe negative alcohol-related consequences (SAC). Relative to those classified as low or intermediate in both dimensions, no significant difference experiencing SAC was found among those who were classified as high in the non-party-dimension only. However, those who were classified as high in the party-dimension alone or in both dimensions were more likely to experience SAC. These differential effects remained after adjusting for alcohol consumption (volume and risky single-occasion drinking), personality traits, and peer-influence [adjusted OR = 0.83 (0.68-1.02), 1.57 (1.27-1.96), and 1.72 (1.23-2.41), respectively], indicating independent effects of drinking location on SAC. The inclusion of sociodemographic factors did not alter this association. The fact that this cluster of party-dimension locations seems to predispose young men to experiencing SAC has important implications for alcohol control policies.

A Mega-fire event in Central Russia: fire weather, radiative, and optical properties of the atmosphere, and consequences for subboreal forest plants

Treesearch

Nataly Y. Chubarova; Nickolay G. Prilepsky; Alexei N. Rublev; Allen R. Riebau

2009-01-01

In 2002, a major drought and prolonged high temperatures occurred in central Russia that resulted in unprecedented wildland fires. These fires occurred under extreme fire danger conditions and were impossible for the Russian authorities to extinguish. It is perhaps somewhat unique that the fires were first burning peat bogs and later forests, causing very massive smoke...

Using FDA reports to inform a classification for health information technology safety problems

PubMed Central

Ong, Mei-Sing; Runciman, William; Coiera, Enrico

2011-01-01

Objective To expand an emerging classification for problems with health information technology (HIT) using reports submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration Manufacturer and User Facility Device Experience (MAUDE) database. Design HIT events submitted to MAUDE were retrieved using a standardized search strategy. Using an emerging classification with 32 categories of HIT problems, a subset of relevant events were iteratively analyzed to identify new categories. Two coders then independently classified the remaining events into one or more categories. Free-text descriptions were analyzed to identify the consequences of events. Measurements Descriptive statistics by number of reported problems per category and by consequence; inter-rater reliability analysis using the κ statistic for the major categories and consequences. Results A search of 899 768 reports from January 2008 to July 2010 yielded 1100 reports about HIT. After removing duplicate and unrelated reports, 678 reports describing 436 events remained. The authors identified four new categories to describe problems with software functionality, system configuration, interface with devices, and network configuration; the authors' classification with 32 categories of HIT problems was expanded by the addition of these four categories. Examination of the 436 events revealed 712 problems, 96% were machine-related, and 4% were problems at the human–computer interface. Almost half (46%) of the events related to hazardous circumstances. Of the 46 events (11%) associated with patient harm, four deaths were linked to HIT problems (0.9% of 436 events). Conclusions Only 0.1% of the MAUDE reports searched were related to HIT. Nevertheless, Food and Drug Administration reports did prove to be a useful new source of information about the nature of software problems and their safety implications with potential to inform strategies for safe design and implementation. PMID:21903979

Seismology-based early identification of dam-formation landquake events.

PubMed

Chao, Wei-An; Zhao, Li; Chen, Su-Chin; Wu, Yih-Min; Chen, Chi-Hsuan; Huang, Hsin-Hua

2016-01-12

Flooding resulting from the bursting of dams formed by landquake events such as rock avalanches, landslides and debris flows can lead to serious bank erosion and inundation of populated areas near rivers. Seismic waves can be generated by landquake events which can be described as time-dependent forces (unloading/reloading cycles) acting on the Earth. In this study, we conduct inversions of long-period (LP, period ≥20 s) waveforms for the landquake force histories (LFHs) of ten events, which provide quantitative characterization of the initiation, propagation and termination stages of the slope failures. When the results obtained from LP waveforms are analyzed together with high-frequency (HF, 1-3 Hz) seismic signals, we find a relatively strong late-arriving seismic phase (dubbed Dam-forming phase or D-phase) recorded clearly in the HF waveforms at the closest stations, which potentially marks the time when the collapsed masses sliding into river and perhaps even impacting the topographic barrier on the opposite bank. Consequently, our approach to analyzing the LP and HF waveforms developed in this study has a high potential for identifying five dam-forming landquake events (DFLEs) in near real-time using broadband seismic records, which can provide timely warnings of the impending floods to downstream residents.

Paternity analysis reveals wide pollen dispersal and high multiple paternity in a small isolated population of the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia (Myrtaceae).

PubMed

Bezemer, N; Krauss, S L; Phillips, R D; Roberts, D G; Hopper, S D

2016-12-01

Optimal foraging behaviour by nectavores is expected to result in a leptokurtic pollen dispersal distribution and predominantly near-neighbour mating. However, complex social interactions among nectarivorous birds may result in different mating patterns to those typically observed in insect-pollinated plants. Mating system, realised pollen dispersal and spatial genetic structure were examined in the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia, a species characterised by small, geographically disjunct populations. Nine microsatellite markers were used to genotype an entire adult stand and 181 seeds from 28 capsules collected from 6 trees. Mating system analysis using MLTR revealed moderate to high outcrossing (t m =0.479-0.806) and low estimates of correlated paternity (r p =0.136±s.e. 0.048). Paternity analysis revealed high outcrossing rates (mean=0.72) and high multiple paternity, with 64 different sires identified for 181 seeds. There was a significant negative relationship between the frequency of outcross mating and distance between mating pairs. Realised mating events were more frequent than expected with random mating for plants <40 m apart. The overall distribution of pollen dispersal distances was platykurtic. Despite extensive pollen dispersal within the stand, three genetic clusters were detected by STRUCTURE analysis. These genetic clusters were strongly differentiated yet geographically interspersed, hypothesised to be a consequence of rare recruitment events coupled with extreme longevity. We suggest that extensive polyandry and pollen dispersal is a consequence of pollination by highly mobile honeyeaters and may buffer E. caesia against the loss of genetic diversity predicted for small and genetically isolated populations.

Paternity analysis reveals wide pollen dispersal and high multiple paternity in a small isolated population of the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia (Myrtaceae)

PubMed Central

Bezemer, N; Krauss, S L; Phillips, R D; Roberts, D G; Hopper, S D

2016-01-01

Optimal foraging behaviour by nectavores is expected to result in a leptokurtic pollen dispersal distribution and predominantly near-neighbour mating. However, complex social interactions among nectarivorous birds may result in different mating patterns to those typically observed in insect-pollinated plants. Mating system, realised pollen dispersal and spatial genetic structure were examined in the bird-pollinated Eucalyptus caesia, a species characterised by small, geographically disjunct populations. Nine microsatellite markers were used to genotype an entire adult stand and 181 seeds from 28 capsules collected from 6 trees. Mating system analysis using MLTR revealed moderate to high outcrossing (tm=0.479–0.806) and low estimates of correlated paternity (rp=0.136±s.e. 0.048). Paternity analysis revealed high outcrossing rates (mean=0.72) and high multiple paternity, with 64 different sires identified for 181 seeds. There was a significant negative relationship between the frequency of outcross mating and distance between mating pairs. Realised mating events were more frequent than expected with random mating for plants <40 m apart. The overall distribution of pollen dispersal distances was platykurtic. Despite extensive pollen dispersal within the stand, three genetic clusters were detected by STRUCTURE analysis. These genetic clusters were strongly differentiated yet geographically interspersed, hypothesised to be a consequence of rare recruitment events coupled with extreme longevity. We suggest that extensive polyandry and pollen dispersal is a consequence of pollination by highly mobile honeyeaters and may buffer E. caesia against the loss of genetic diversity predicted for small and genetically isolated populations. PMID:27530908

Teaching Strategies for Early Childhood Environments: A Selective Review.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, K. Eileen; Rowbury, Trudylee G.

The review of teaching strategies examines four areas of potential ecological impact on effective learning in young children--methods for curriculum organization, antecedent instructional events, consequent instructional events, and packages or combinations of instructional events. Four methods of curriculum organization are explained including…

Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

The four faces of rumination to stressful events: A psychometric analysis.

PubMed

García, Felipe E; Duque, Almudena; Cova, Félix

2017-11-01

To increase the knowledge of rumination and its associations with stressful events, we explored the relationships between 4 types of rumination (brooding, reflection, intrusive, and deliberate rumination) in a sample of 750 adult participants who experienced a highly stressful event. We also explored the predictive value of the different types of rumination on posttraumatic stress symptoms and posttraumatic growth 6 months after the highly stressful event occurred. Participants completed the Ruminative Response Scale and the Event-Related Rumination Inventory. Brooding and reflection rumination were obtained from the Ruminative Response Scale, whereas deliberate and intrusive rumination were obtained from the Event-Related Rumination Inventory. Confirmatory factorial analyses were conducted using the 4 types of rumination to test 3 different models: (a) 4-factor model (brooding, reflection, intrusive, and deliberate rumination), (b) 2-factor model: adaptive rumination (reflection and deliberate) and maladaptive rumination (brooding and intrusive), and (c) 2-factor model: depressive rumination (brooding and reflection) and posttraumatic rumination (intrusive and deliberate). It was observed that the 4-factor model showed the best fit to the data. Moreover, 6 months later it was observed that the most significant predictor of posttraumatic symptoms was intrusive rumination, whereas deliberate rumination was the most significant predictor of posttraumatic growth. Results indicate that the 4 types of rumination are differentiated constructs. Ruminative thoughts experienced after a stressful event predicted posttraumatic consequences 6 months later. Implications of these findings are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Mid-Wisconsin Laurentide Ice Sheet growth and decay: Implications for Heinrich events 3 and 4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirby, Matthew E.; Andrews, John T.

1999-04-01

A close look at the sedimentology of Heinrich event 4 from the northwest Labrador Sea indicates that an extended ice margin, perhaps greater than before Heinrich events 1 or 2 (H-1 and H-2), existed in the Hudson Strait region pre-Heinrich event 4 (H-4) and, that on the basis of characteristics of the sediment unit, Heinrich event-4 was different than Heinrich events 1 or 2 (i.e., larger ice sheet collapse(?), longer duration(?), "dirtier" icebergs(?)). Other data from across the southern and eastern margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, as well as Greenland and the North Atlantic, support this interpretation, possibly indicating a relative mid-Wisconsin glacial maximum pre-Heinrich event 4. Many of these data also indicate that Heinrich event 4 (35 ka) resulted in serious climatic and oceanographic reorganizations. We suggest that Heinrich event 4 gutted the Hudson Strait, leaving it devoid of ice for Heinrich event 3. We further hypothesize that Heinrich event 3 did not originate from axial ice transport along the Hudson Strait; thus Heinrich event 3 may be more analogous to the proposed northward advancing ice from Ungava Bay during Heinrich event 0 than to the more typical down-the-strait flow during H-1, H-2, and H-4. Consequently, the climatic and oceanographic impacts resulting from Heinrich events are highly susceptible to the type, origin, and magnitude of ice sheet collapse, something which varied per Heinrich event during the last glacial period.

NOVA2-mediated RNA regulation is required for axonal pathfinding during development.

PubMed

Saito, Yuhki; Miranda-Rottmann, Soledad; Ruggiu, Matteo; Park, Christopher Y; Fak, John J; Zhong, Ru; Duncan, Jeremy S; Fabella, Brian A; Junge, Harald J; Chen, Zhe; Araya, Roberto; Fritzsch, Bernd; Hudspeth, A J; Darnell, Robert B

2016-05-25

The neuron specific RNA-binding proteins NOVA1 and NOVA2 are highly homologous alternative splicing regulators. NOVA proteins regulate at least 700 alternative splicing events in vivo, yet relatively little is known about the biologic consequences of NOVA action and in particular about functional differences between NOVA1 and NOVA2. Transcriptome-wide searches for isoform-specific functions, using NOVA1 and NOVA2 specific HITS-CLIP and RNA-seq data from mouse cortex lacking either NOVA isoform, reveals that NOVA2 uniquely regulates alternative splicing events of a series of axon guidance related genes during cortical development. Corresponding axonal pathfinding defects were specific to NOVA2 deficiency: Nova2-/- but not Nova1-/- mice had agenesis of the corpus callosum, and axonal outgrowth defects specific to ventral motoneuron axons and efferent innervation of the cochlea. Thus we have discovered that NOVA2 uniquely regulates alternative splicing of a coordinate set of transcripts encoding key components in cortical, brainstem and spinal axon guidance/outgrowth pathways during neural differentiation, with severe functional consequences in vivo.

Influence of measurement frequency on the evaluation of short-term dose of sub-micrometric particles during indoor and outdoor generation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manigrasso, M.; Stabile, L.; Avino, P.; Buonanno, G.

2013-03-01

Aerosol generation events due to combustion processes are characterized by high particle emissions in the nucleation mode range. Such particles are characterized by very short atmospheric lifetimes, leading to rapid decay in time and space from the emission point. Therefore, the deposited fraction of inhaled particles (dose) also changes. In fact, close to the emission source, high short-term peak exposures occur. The related exposure estimates should therefore rely on measurements of aerosol number-size distributions able to track rapid aerosol dynamics. In order to study the influence of the time resolution on such estimates, simultaneous measurements were carried out via Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer (SMPS) and Fast Mobility Particle Sizer (FMPS) spectrometers during particle generation events in both indoor (cooking activities) and outdoor (airstrip and urban street canyons) microenvironments. Aerosol size distributions in the range 16-520 nm were measured by SMPS and FMPS at frequencies of 0.007 s-1 and 1 s-1, respectively. Based on the two datasets, respiratory dosimetry estimates were made on the basis of the deposition model of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. During cooking activities, SMPS measurements give an approximate representation of aerosol temporal evolution. Consequently, the related instant doses can be approximated to a fair degree. In the two outdoor microenvironments considered, aerosol size distributions change rapidly: the FMPS is able to follow such evolution, whereas the SMPS is not. The high short-term peak concentrations, and the consequent respiratory doses, evidenced by FMPS data are hardly described by SMPS, which is unable to track the fast aerosol changes. The health relevance of such short peak exposures has not been thoroughly investigated in scientific literature, therefore, in the present paper highly time-resolved and size-resolved dosimetry estimates were provided in order to deepen this aspect.

Infectious Cognition: Risk Perception Affects Socially Shared Retrieval-Induced Forgetting of Medical Information.

PubMed

Coman, Alin; Berry, Jessica N

2015-12-01

When speakers selectively retrieve previously learned information, listeners often concurrently, and covertly, retrieve their memories of that information. This concurrent retrieval typically enhances memory for mentioned information (the rehearsal effect) and impairs memory for unmentioned but related information (socially shared retrieval-induced forgetting, SSRIF), relative to memory for unmentioned and unrelated information. Building on research showing that anxiety leads to increased attention to threat-relevant information, we explored whether concurrent retrieval is facilitated in high-anxiety real-world contexts. Participants first learned category-exemplar facts about meningococcal disease. Following a manipulation of perceived risk of infection (low vs. high risk), they listened to a mock radio show in which some of the facts were selectively practiced. Final recall tests showed that the rehearsal effect was equivalent between the two risk conditions, but SSRIF was significantly larger in the high-risk than in the low-risk condition. Thus, the tendency to exaggerate consequences of news events was found to have deleterious consequences. © The Author(s) 2015.

Spatial variation in risk and consequence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans introduction in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Adams, Michael J.; White, C. LeAnn; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

A newly identified fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), is responsible for mass mortality events and severe population declines in European salamanders. The eastern USA has the highest diversity of salamanders in the world and the introduction of this pathogen is likely to be devastating. Although data are inevitably limited for new pathogens, disease-risk assessments use best available data to inform management decisions. Using characteristics of Bsal ecology, spatial data on imports and pet trade establishments, and salamander species diversity, we identify high-risk areas with both a high likelihood of introduction and severe consequences for local salamanders. We predict that the Pacific coast, southern Appalachian Mountains and mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest relative risk from Bsal. Management of invasive pathogens becomes difficult once they are established in wildlife populations; therefore, import restrictions to limit pathogen introduction and early detection through surveillance of high-risk areas are priorities for preventing the next crisis for North American salamanders.

Induced Seismicity Potential of Energy Technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hitzman, Murray

2013-03-01

Earthquakes attributable to human activities-``induced seismic events''-have received heightened public attention in the United States over the past several years. Upon request from the U.S. Congress and the Department of Energy, the National Research Council was asked to assemble a committee of experts to examine the scale, scope, and consequences of seismicity induced during fluid injection and withdrawal associated with geothermal energy development, oil and gas development, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). The committee's report, publicly released in June 2012, indicates that induced seismicity associated with fluid injection or withdrawal is caused in most cases by change in pore fluid pressure and/or change in stress in the subsurface in the presence of faults with specific properties and orientations and a critical state of stress in the rocks. The factor that appears to have the most direct consequence in regard to induced seismicity is the net fluid balance (total balance of fluid introduced into or removed from the subsurface). Energy technology projects that are designed to maintain a balance between the amount of fluid being injected and withdrawn, such as most oil and gas development projects, appear to produce fewer seismic events than projects that do not maintain fluid balance. Major findings from the study include: (1) as presently implemented, the process of hydraulic fracturing for shale gas recovery does not pose a high risk for inducing felt seismic events; (2) injection for disposal of waste water derived from energy technologies does pose some risk for induced seismicity, but very few events have been documented over the past several decades relative to the large number of disposal wells in operation; and (3) CCS, due to the large net volumes of injected fluids suggested for future large-scale carbon storage projects, may have potential for inducing larger seismic events.

Signals of El Niño Modoki in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, F.; Li, J.; Tian, W.; Feng, J.

2012-02-01

The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data, satellite observations from the Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. El Niño Modoki activities tend to moisten the lower and middle stratosphere, but dry the upper stratosphere. It was also found that the canonical El Niño signal can overlay linearly on the QBO signal in the stratosphere, whereas the interaction between the El Niño Modoki and QBO signals is non-linear. Because of these non-linear interactions, El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effects of typical Modoki events, i.e. the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. However, simulations suggest that canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki activities actually have the same influence on high latitudes stratosphere, in the absence of interactions between QBO and ENSO signals. The present results also reveal that canonical El Niño events have a greater impact on the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere stratosphere than on the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere stratosphere. However, El Niño Modoki events can more profoundly influence the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere stratosphere than the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere stratosphere.

The Angel and the Devil on your shoulder: Friends mitigate and exacerbate 21st birthday alcohol-related consequences.

PubMed

Fillo, Jennifer; Rodriguez, Lindsey M; Anthenien, Amber M; Neighbors, Clayton; Lee, Christine M

2017-11-01

Twenty-first birthdays are associated with heavier drinking and more negative consequences than any other high-risk drinking event. Friends are the strongest social influence on young adult drinking; however, previous research on college students' drinking has often only examined individuals' perceptions of "friends" generally. Unfortunately, this may obscure the positive influence of some friends and the negative influence of others. Using data drawn from a larger intervention study aimed at reducing 21st birthday drinking, this research examined how specific friends (N = 166) who were present at 21st birthday celebrations may have exacerbated or mitigated celebrants' (N = 166) experience of alcohol-related consequences, as well as how characteristics of that friendship moderate these effects. Controlling for sex, alcohol consumption, and friend prointoxication intentions for the celebrants' 21st birthday drinking, higher friend prosafety/support intentions predicted the celebrants experiencing fewer alcohol-related consequences. Higher prosafety/support intentions also buffered participants from the negative influence of friend prointoxication intentions. Furthermore, the closeness of the friendship moderated this effect. At high levels of closeness, having a friend with lower prosafety/support intentions was associated with more alcohol-related consequences for the celebrant. Post hoc analyses revealed that this effect may have been driven by discrepancies between celebrants' and friends' reports of friendship closeness; celebrants' perception of closeness that was higher than the friends' perception was associated with the celebrant experiencing more alcohol-related consequences. Results demonstrate the ways that specific friends can both mitigate and exacerbate 21st birthday alcohol-related consequences. The implications of the present findings for incorporating specific friends into drinking-related interventions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Seeing the Elephant -- Consequence Management Policy for the Department of Defense

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-05-01

required for effective Consequence Management. The three response tiers allows the DoD to provide a predesignated level of support to the appropriate Federal...recommendation is the creation of a tiered response capability that balances time and tasks required for effective Consequence Management. The three...the response required for toxic chemical events. The third tier is reserved for the actions required for the Consequence Management for a biological

Women's financial planning for retirement: the impact of disruptive life events.

PubMed

Orel, Nancy A; Ford, Ruth A; Brock, Charlene

2004-01-01

Providing care for an aged parent has immediate financial, emotional, psychological, and physical consequences for the primary caregiver. This pilot study of 138 middle aged and older females analyzes the long term financial consequences of providing care to aged relatives for female caregivers. The impact of this disruptive life event (e.g., caring for an aged relative) on retirement planning among middle aged and older adult women was analyzed using quantitative data collected from women residing in the Midwest region of the United States.

High frequency new particle formation in the Himalayas

PubMed Central

Venzac, Hervé; Sellegri, Karine; Laj, Paolo; Villani, Paolo; Bonasoni, Paolo; Marinoni, Angela; Cristofanelli, Paolo; Calzolari, Francescopiero; Fuzzi, Sandro; Decesari, Stefano; Facchini, Maria-Cristina; Vuillermoz, Elisa; Verza, Gian Pietro

2008-01-01

Rising air pollution levels in South Asia will have worldwide environmental consequences. Transport of pollutants from the densely populated regions of India, Pakistan, China, and Nepal to the Himalayas may lead to substantial radiative forcing in South Asia with potential effects on the monsoon circulation and, hence, on regional climate and hydrological cycles, as well as to dramatic impacts on glacier retreat. An improved description of particulate sources is needed to constrain the simulation of future regional climate changes. Here, the first evidence of very frequent new particle formation events occurring up to high altitudes is presented. A 16-month record of aerosol size distribution from the Nepal Climate Observatory at Pyramid (Nepal, 5,079 m above sea level), the highest atmospheric research station, is shown. Aerosol concentrations are driven by intense ultrafine particle events occurring on >35% of the days at the interface between clean tropospheric air and the more polluted air rising from the valleys. During a pilot study, we observed a significant increase of ion cluster concentrations with the onset of new particle formation events. The ion clusters rapidly grew to a 10-nm size within a few hours, confirming, thus, that in situ nucleation takes place up to high altitudes. The initiation of the new particle events coincides with the shift from free tropospheric downslope winds to thermal upslope winds from the valley in the morning hours. The new particle formation events represent a very significant additional source of particles possibly injected into the free troposphere by thermal winds. PMID:18852453

Influence of Network Model Detail on Estimated Health Effects of Drinking Water Contamination Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

Network model detail can influence the accuracy of results from analyses of water distribution systems. Some previous work has shown the limitations of skeletonized network models when considering water quality and hydraulic effects. Loss of model detail is potentially less important for aggregated effects such as the systemwide health effects associated with a contamination event, but has received limited attention. The influence of model detail on such effects is examined here by comparing results obtained for contamination events using three large network models and several skeletonized versions of the models. Loss of model detail decreases the accuracy of estimated aggregatedmore » adverse effects related to contamination events. It has the potential to have a large negative influence on the results of consequence assessments and the design of contamination warning systems. But, the adverse influence on analysis results can be minimized by restricting attention to high percentile effects (i.e., 95th percentile or higher).« less

Influence of Network Model Detail on Estimated Health Effects of Drinking Water Contamination Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

Network model detail can influence the accuracy of results from analyses of water distribution systems. Previous work has shown the limitations of skeletonized network models when considering water quality and hydraulic effects. Loss of model detail is potentially less important for aggregated effects such as the systemwide health effects associated with a contamination event, but has received limited attention. The influence of model detail on such effects is examined here by comparing results obtained for contamination events using three large network models and several skeletonized versions of the models. Loss of model detail decreases the accuracy of estimated aggregated adversemore » effects related to contamination events. It has the potential to have a large negative influence on the results of consequence assessments and the design of contamination warning systems. However, the adverse influence on analysis results can be minimized by restricting attention to high percentile effects (i.e., 95th percentile or higher).« less

Influence of Network Model Detail on Estimated Health Effects of Drinking Water Contamination Events

DOE PAGES

Davis, Michael J.; Janke, Robert

2015-01-01

Network model detail can influence the accuracy of results from analyses of water distribution systems. Some previous work has shown the limitations of skeletonized network models when considering water quality and hydraulic effects. Loss of model detail is potentially less important for aggregated effects such as the systemwide health effects associated with a contamination event, but has received limited attention. The influence of model detail on such effects is examined here by comparing results obtained for contamination events using three large network models and several skeletonized versions of the models. Loss of model detail decreases the accuracy of estimated aggregatedmore » adverse effects related to contamination events. It has the potential to have a large negative influence on the results of consequence assessments and the design of contamination warning systems. But, the adverse influence on analysis results can be minimized by restricting attention to high percentile effects (i.e., 95th percentile or higher).« less

Hazardous Glaciers In Switzerland: A Statistical Analysis of Inventory Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, M.; Funk, M.; Wegmann, M.

Because of the recent increase in both occupation and economical activities in high mountain areas, a systematic overview of potential hazard zones of glaciers is needed to avoid the constuction of settlements and infrastructures in endangered areas in fu- ture. Historical informations about glacier disasters show that catastrophic events can happen repeatedly for the same causes and with the same dramatic consequences. Past catastrophic events are not only useful to identify potentially dangerous glaciers, but represent an indication of the kind of glacier hazards to expect for any given glacier. An inventory containing all known events having caused damages in the past has been compiled for Switzerland. Three different types of glacier hazards are distinguished , e.g. ice avalanches, glacier floods and glacier length changes.Hazardous glaciers have been identified in the alpine cantons of Bern, Grison, Uri, Vaud and Valais so far. The inventory data were analysed in terms of periodicity of different types of events as well as of damage occured.

Consequences of musculoskeletal disorders on occupational events: a life-long perspective from a national survey.

PubMed

Leclerc, Annette; Pascal, Pauline; Chastang, Jean-François; Descatha, Alexis

2014-06-01

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are among the most frequent causes of disability, with potentially important consequences. Our objective was to investigate from a lifelong perspective the factors associated with these consequences, including permanent withdrawal from the workforce, focusing especially on factors at the start of working life. The data come from the SIP national survey (Santé et Histoire Professionnelle, health and occupational history). Three groups of subjects were compared with multinomial logistic models: group 1 (G1), who had MSDs that caused an important event in their working life; group 2, who had MSDs without any such consequence; and group 3 (G3), who had no MSD. In multivariate models, MSDs with consequences on occupational events were strongly associated with a low educational level for both sexes, and with some working conditions. In the comparison G1/G3, the odds-ratio (OR) for "no diploma" compared to "university level" was 4.41 and the confidence interval (95 % CI) 2.31-8.40 for men. For women the OR was 2.02 (95 % CI 1.32, 3.10). Group 2's educational level was between G1 and G3, closer to G3. For men, another risk factor was a first job in construction or farming (OR = 2.95 for construction, 2.23 for farming, comparison G1/G3). Comparisons focusing on "permanent withdrawal from the workforce" yielded similar results. Associations between occupational history and health are complex; the results strongly suggest that factors at the beginning of working life, including level of education, have important delayed consequences, especially for workers with health disorders such as MDSs. In order to reduce the frequency of negative consequences, a better knowledge on causal mechanisms would be needed.

Long-term Consequences of Finasteride vs Placebo in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial

PubMed Central

Till, Cathee; Thompson, Ian M.; Tangen, Catherine M.; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Wright, Jason D.; Barlow, William E.; Ramsey, Scott D.; Minasian, Lori M.; Hershman, Dawn L.

2016-01-01

Background: Finasteride has been found to reduce the risk of low-grade prostate cancer but to have no impact on overall survival. The long-term adverse and beneficial consequences of finasteride have not been examined. Methods: We used a linkage between data from the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) and Medicare claims. Patients were examined by randomized study arm (finasteride vs placebo for 7 years) for long-term consequences of the intervention, including cardiac, endocrine, and sexual dysfunction, depression, diabetes, and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH)–related events. To examine time to events, we used cumulative incidence and Cox regression, adjusting for covariates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: A total of 13 935 of 18 880 participants (73.8%) in the PCPT were linked to Medicare claims, with median Medicare follow-up assessment time of 16 years from trial registration. There were no differences between finasteride and placebo participants with respect to important baseline factors or amount of Medicare follow-up assessment time. Finasteride patients had a 10% higher risk of new claims for depression (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.01 to 1.19, P = .04) and a 6% lower risk of procedures for BPH-related events (primarily lower urinary tract symptoms; HR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.89 to 1.00, P = .03). No other differences were found in rates of long-term consequences of intervention in the two study arms. Conclusions: Finasteride use is associated with reduced need for procedures for relief of BPH-related events and a modest increase in depression. Overall, there is little need to worry about long-term noncancer consequences of finasteride use in those who use it for treatment of symptomatic BPH, hair growth, or prevention of cancer. PMID:27565902

Contrasting above- and belowground sensitivity of three Great Plains grasslands to altered rainfall regimes.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; von Fischer, Joseph C; Muscha, Jennifer M; Petersen, Mark K; Knapp, Alan K

2015-01-01

Intensification of the global hydrological cycle with atmospheric warming is expected to increase interannual variation in precipitation amount and the frequency of extreme precipitation events. Although studies in grasslands have shown sensitivity of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) to both precipitation amount and event size, we lack equivalent knowledge for responses of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP) and NPP. We conducted a 2-year experiment in three US Great Plains grasslands--the C4-dominated shortgrass prairie (SGP; low ANPP) and tallgrass prairie (TGP; high ANPP), and the C3-dominated northern mixed grass prairie (NMP; intermediate ANPP)--to test three predictions: (i) both ANPP and BNPP responses to increased precipitation amount would vary inversely with mean annual precipitation (MAP) and site productivity; (ii) increased numbers of extreme rainfall events during high-rainfall years would affect high and low MAP sites differently; and (iii) responses belowground would mirror those aboveground. We increased growing season precipitation by as much as 50% by augmenting natural rainfall via (i) many (11-13) small or (ii) fewer (3-5) large watering events, with the latter coinciding with naturally occurring large storms. Both ANPP and BNPP increased with water addition in the two C4 grasslands, with greater ANPP sensitivity in TGP, but greater BNPP and NPP sensitivity in SGP. ANPP and BNPP did not respond to any rainfall manipulations in the C3 -dominated NMP. Consistent with previous studies, fewer larger (extreme) rainfall events increased ANPP relative to many small events in SGP, but event size had no effect in TGP. Neither system responded consistently above- and belowground to event size; consequently, total NPP was insensitive to event size. The diversity of responses observed in these three grassland types underscores the challenge of predicting responses relevant to C cycling to forecast changes in precipitation regimes even within relatively homogeneous biomes such as grasslands. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring the role of positive and negative consequences in understanding perceptions and evaluations of individual drinking events

PubMed Central

Lee, Christine M.; Patrick, Megan E.; Neighbors, Clayton; Lewis, Melissa A.; Tollison, Sean J.; Larimer, Mary E.

2016-01-01

While research has established that drinking more alcohol is associated with experiencing more positive and negative alcohol-related consequences, less is known about how college students evaluate their drinking experiences. Evaluations of drinking events may vary with factors such as how much one drinks, which consequences one experiences, and the context (i.e., where and with whom) one drinks on a given occasion. This research used daily data (Level 2: N=166 students, 61% female; Level 1: N=848 person drinking days) to explore the relationship between quantity of alcohol consumed and experience of specific domains of positive and negative consequences and to examine how the experience of specific consequences related to overall evaluation of the drinking experience. Drinking on a given day was positively associated with experiencing more negative (social and personal) and more positive (image, fun/social, and relaxation) consequences. With respect to the formation of overall impressions, negative (social and personal) consequences were associated with less favorable evaluations whereas positive (image, fun/social, and relaxation) consequences were associated with more favorable evaluations of the drinking experience. Indirect effects analyses suggested that consequences (negative personal, negative social, positive fun/social, and positive relaxation) significantly mediated the relationship between drinking and overall evaluation at the daily level. These results underscore the importance of considering both positive and negative consequences in understanding students’ choices to drink and how they evaluate their experiences. PMID:20385445

Uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.

2012-01-01

Management decisions will often be directly informed by model predictions. However, we now know there can be no expectation of a single ‘true’ model; thus, model results are uncertain. Understandable reporting of underlying uncertainty provides necessary context to decision-makers, as model results are used for management decisions. This, in turn, forms a mechanism by which groundwater models inform a risk-management framework because uncertainty around a prediction provides the basis for estimating the probability or likelihood of some event occurring. Given that the consequences of management decisions vary, it follows that the extent of and resources devoted to an uncertainty analysis may depend on the consequences. For events with low impact, a qualitative, limited uncertainty analysis may be sufficient for informing a decision. For events with a high impact, on the other hand, the risks might be better assessed and associated decisions made using a more robust and comprehensive uncertainty analysis. The purpose of this chapter is to provide guidance on uncertainty analysis through discussion of concepts and approaches, which can vary from heuristic (i.e. the modeller’s assessment of prediction uncertainty based on trial and error and experience) to a comprehensive, sophisticated, statistics-based uncertainty analysis. Most of the material presented here is taken from Doherty et al. (2010) if not otherwise cited. Although the treatment here is necessarily brief, the reader can find citations for the source material and additional references within this chapter.

Assessing antibacterial pharmacoeconomics in the intensive care unit.

PubMed

Birmingham, M C; Hassett, J M; Schentag, J J; Paladino, J A

1997-12-01

Intensive care units (ICUs) represent areas of high use of antibacterials and other pharmacy goods and services. Many institutions view their ICUs as a target for drug-use surveillance and cost-containment programmes. Economic assessment of antibacterial interventions in the ICU should include all direct costs and patient outcomes. Nonetheless, many of these institutions focus their efforts at reducing antibacterial costs without considering the consequences of these actions. It is possible that devoting more resources to antibacterials can have an overall positive economic impact if more appropriate antibacterial use reduces length of stay, decreases bacterial resistance or lowers frequency of adverse complications. Two consequences of antibacterial use which can result in substantial economic burdens to institutions are drug-induced complications (toxicities and adverse events) and the development of antibacterial-resistant organisms. These events are logical targets for performing pharmacoeconomic studies to evaluate appropriate and inappropriate antibacterial use. Either of these problems can increase length of stay, which is the single most important variable influencing the overall cost of patient care. The primary goal of patient care is to hasten patients' clinical improvement. This will result in decreased antibacterial acquisition costs, decreased lengths of ICU and hospital stays, and ultimately decreased consumption of hospital resources. These can be accomplished by using strategies to guide antibacterial use in order to reduce failures, adverse events, toxicity and antimicrobial resistance.

Field drains as a route of rapid nutrient export from agricultural land receiving biosolids.

PubMed

Heathwaite, A L; Burke, S P; Bolton, L

2006-07-15

We report research on the environmental risk of incidental nutrient transfers from land to water for biosolids amended soils. We show that subsurface (drainflow) pathways of P transport may result in significant concentrations, up to 10 mg total P l(-1), in the drainage network of an arable catchment when a P source (recent biosolids application) coincides with a significant and active transport pathway (rainfall event). However, the high P concentrations were short-lived, with drainage ditch total P concentrations returning to pre-storm concentrations within a few days of the storm event. In the case of the drainflow concentrations reported here, the results are unusual in that they describe an 'incidental event' for a groundwater catchment where such events might normally be expected to be rare owing to the capacity of the hydrological system to attenuate nutrient fluxes for highly adsorbed elements such as P. Consequently, there is a potential risk of P transfers to shallow groundwater systems. We suggest that the findings are not specific to biosolids-alone, which is a highly regulated industry, but that similar results may be anticipated had livestock waste or mineral fertilizer been applied, although the magnitude of losses may differ. The risk appears to be more one of timing and the availability of a rapid transport pathway than of P source.

Development and Characterization of a High Throughput Screen to investigate the delayed Effects of Radiations Commonly Encountered in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morgan, W. F.

Astronauts based on the space station or on long-term space missions will be exposed to high Z radiations in the cosmic environment In order to evaluate the potentially deleterious effects of exposure to radiations commonly encountered in space we have developed and characterized a high throughput assay to detect mutation deletion events and or hyperrecombination in the progeny of exposed cells This assay is based on a plasmid vector containing a green fluorescence protein reporter construct We have shown that after stable transfection of the vector into human or hamster cells this construct can identify mutations specifically base changes and deletions as well as recombination events e g gene conversion or homologous recombination occurring as a result of exposure to ionizing radiation Our focus has been on those events occurring in the progeny of an irradiated cell that are potentially associated with radiation induced genomic instability rather than the more conventional assays that evaluate the direct immediate effects of radiation exposure Considerable time has been spent automating analysis of surviving colonies as a function of time after irradiation in order to determine when delayed instability is induced and the consequences of this delayed instability The assay is now automated permitting the evaluation of potentially rare events associated with low dose low dose rate radiations commonly encountered in space

Episodic Memory in Former Professional Football Players with a History of Concussion: An Event-Related Functional Neuroimaging Study

PubMed Central

Giovanello, Kelly S.; Guskiewicz, Kevin M.

2013-01-01

Abstract Previous research has demonstrated that sport-related concussions can have short-term effects on cognitive processes, but the long-term consequences are less understood and warrant more research. This study was the first to use event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to examine long-term differences in neural activity during memory tasks in former athletes who have sustained multiple sport-related concussions. In an event-related fMRI study, former football players reporting multiple sport-related concussions (i.e., three or more) were compared with players who reported fewer than three concussions during a memory paradigm examining item memory (i.e., memory for the particular elements of an event) and relational memory (i.e., memory for the relationships between elements). Behaviorally, we observed that concussion history did not significantly affect behavioral performance, because persons in the low and high concussion groups had equivalent performance on both memory tasks, and in addition, that concussion history was not associated with any behavioral memory measures. Despite demonstrating equivalent behavioral performance, the two groups of former players demonstrated different neural recruitment patterns during relational memory retrieval, suggesting that multiple concussions may be associated with functional inefficiencies in the relational memory network. In addition, the number of previous concussions significantly correlated with functional activity in a number of brain regions, including the medial temporal lobe and inferior parietal lobe. Our results provide important insights in understanding the long-term functional consequences of sustaining multiple sports-related concussions. PMID:23679098

Within-Range Translocations and Their Consequences in European Larch

PubMed Central

Wagner, Stefanie; Liepelt, Sascha; Gerber, Sophie; Petit, Rémy J.

2015-01-01

In contrast to biological invasions, translocations of individuals within a species range are understudied, due to difficulties in systematically detecting them. This results in limited knowledge about the corresponding processes and uncertainties regarding the status of extant populations. European larch, a forest tree whose fragmented native distribution is restricted to the Alps and to other Central European mountains, has been massively planted for at least 300 years. Here we focus on the genetic characterization of translocations having taken place within its native range. Microsatellite variation at 13 nuclear loci and sequence data of two mitochondrial DNA fragments were analyzed on the basis of a comprehensive range-wide population sample. Two complementary methods (Geneclass and Structure) were used to infer translocation events based on nuclear data whereas mitochondrial data were used for validation of these inferences. Using Geneclass, we found translocation events in a majority of populations. Additional cases of translocation and many instances of admixture were identified using Structure, thanks to the clear-cut ancestral genetic structure detected in this species. In particular, a strong divide between Alpine and Central European populations, also apparent at mitochondrial markers, helped uncover details on translocation events and related processes. Translocations and associated admixture events were found to be heterogeneously distributed across the species range, with a particularly high frequency in Central Europe. Furthermore, translocations frequently involved multiple geographic sources, some of which were over-represented. Our study illustrates the importance of range-wide investigations for tracing translocations back to their origins and for revealing some of their consequences. It provides some first clues for developing suitable conservation and management strategies. PMID:26000791

Jammed Humans in High-Density Crowd Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bottinelli, Arianna; Sumpter, David; Silverberg, Jesse

When people gather in large groups like those found at Black Friday sales events, pilgrimages, heavy metal concerts, and parades, crowd density often becomes exceptionally high. As a consequence, these events can produce tragic outcomes such as stampedes and ''crowd crushes''. While human collective motion has been studied with active particle simulations, the underlying mechanisms for emergent behavior are less well understood. Here, we use techniques developed to study jammed granular materials to analyze an active matter model inspired by large groups of people gathering at a point of common interest. In the model, a single behavioral rule combined with body-contact interactions are sufficient for the emergence of a self-confined steady state, where particles fluctuate around a stable position. Applying mode analysis to this system, we find evidence for Goldstone modes, soft spots, and stochastic resonance, which may be the preferential mechanisms for dangerous emergent collective motions in crowds.

Pleasantness bias in flashbulb memories: positive and negative flashbulb memories of the fall of the Berlin Wall among East and West Germans.

PubMed

Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dornhe

2007-04-01

Flashbulb memories for the fall of the Berlin Wall were examined among 103 East and West Germans who considered the event as either highly positive or highly negative. The participants in the positive group rated their memories higher on measures of reliving and sensory imagery, whereas their memory for facts was less accurate than that of the participants in the negative group. The participants in the negative group had higher ratings on amount of consequences but had talked less about the event and considered it less central to their personal and national identity than did the participants in the positive group. In both groups, rehearsal and the centrality of the memory to the person's identity and life story correlated positively with memory qualities. The results suggest that positive and negative emotions have different effects on the processing and long-term retention of flashbulb memories.

"New Climate" Warmed, "New Atmospheric Circulation" and "Extreme" Meteorological Phenomena associated with El Niño 2015-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karrouk, M. S.

2016-12-01

Cumulating ocean-atmospheric thermal energy caused by global warming has resulted in the reversal of the energy balance towards the poles. This situation is characterized by a new ocean-continental thermal distribution: over the ocean, the balance is more in excess than in the mainland, if not the opposite when the balance is negative inland.Thanks to satellite observation and daily monitoring of meteorological conditions for more than ten years, we have observed that the positive balance has shifted more towards the poles, mainly in the northern hemisphere. Subtropical anticyclones are strengthened and have extended to high latitudes, especially over the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This situation creates global peaks strengthened in winter periods, and imposes on cosmic cold the deep advection toward the south under the form of planetary valleys "Polar Vortex".This situation imposes on the jet stream a pronounced ripple and installs a meridional atmospheric circulation in winter, which brings the warm tropical air masses to reach the Arctic Circle, and cold polar air masses to reach North Africa and Florida.This situation creates unusual atmospheric events, characterized by hydrothermal "extreme" conditions: excessive heat at high latitudes, accompanied by heavy rains and floods, as well as cold at low latitudes and the appearance of snow in the Sahara!The populations are profoundly influenced by the new phenomena. The socioeconomic infrastructures can no longer assume their basic functions and man when unprotected is weak and hence the advanced vulnerability of all the regions especially those belonging to poor and developing countriesRecent studies have shown that global and regional climate system is affected by extreme events of El Niño. Statistical and dynamic links have been confirmed in Northern Africa and Western Europe; hence the importance of the fall situation and winter 2015-2016.These conditions are the consequences of the "New Climate" warmed, strengthened by the strong El Niño event in 2015 decennial.These are the characteristics of "New Meteorological Events" resulting from the "New Atmospheric Circulation", caused by the "New planetary Climate" forcing by El Niño event, consequence of "Global Warming".

Within-host evolution versus immigration as a determinant of Escherichia coli diversity in the human gastrointestinal tract.

PubMed

Dixit, Ojas V A; O'Brien, Claire L; Pavli, Paul; Gordon, David M

2018-03-01

When a human host harbors two or more strains of Escherichia coli, the second strain is more likely to be a member of the same phylogroup rather than a different phylogroup. This outcome may be the consequence of a within host evolution event or an independent immigration/establishment event. To determine the relative importance of these two events in determining E. coli diversity in a host, a collection of multiple E. coli isolates recovered from each of 67 patients undergoing colonoscopies was used. Whole genome sequence data were available for one example of every REP-fingerprint type identified in a patient. Sequence type (ST) and single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) analyses revealed that 83% of strains observed in the host population were a consequence of immigration/establishment events. Restricting the analysis to hosts harboring two or more strains belonging to the same phylogroup revealed that in about half of these cases, the presence of a second strain belonging to the same phylogroup was the consequence of an independent immigration/establishment event. Thus, the results of this study show that despite hosts being exposed to a diversity of E. coli via their food, factors related to the host also determine what E. coli strains succeed in establishing. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Space Weather effects on airline communications in the high latitude regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honary, Farideh

2014-05-01

Efficient air traffic management depends on reliable communications between aircraft and the air traffic control centres at all times. At high latitudes, and especially on polar routing, VHF ground infrastructure does not exist and the aircraft have to rely on HF radio for communications. HF relies on reflections from the ionosphere to achieve long distance communications. Unfortunately the high latitude ionosphere is affected by space weather events. During such events HF radio communication can be severely disrupted and aircraft are forced to use longer low latitude routes with consequent increased flight time, fuel consumption and cost. This presentation describes a new research programme at the University of Lancaster in collaboration with the University of Leicester, Solar Metrics Ltd and Natural Resources Canada for the development of a nowcasting and forecasting HF communications tool designed for the particular needs of civilian airlines. This project funded by EPSRC will access a wide variety of solar and interplanetary measurements to derive a complete picture of space weather disturbances affecting radio absorption and reflection

Oxidative stress in MeHg-induced neurotoxicity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farina, Marcelo, E-mail: farina@ccb.ufsc.br; Aschner, Michael; Department of Pharmacology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN

2011-11-15

Methylmercury (MeHg) is an environmental toxicant that leads to long-lasting neurological and developmental deficits in animals and humans. Although the molecular mechanisms mediating MeHg-induced neurotoxicity are not completely understood, several lines of evidence indicate that oxidative stress represents a critical event related to the neurotoxic effects elicited by this toxicant. The objective of this review is to summarize and discuss data from experimental and epidemiological studies that have been important in clarifying the molecular events which mediate MeHg-induced oxidative damage and, consequently, toxicity. Although unanswered questions remain, the electrophilic properties of MeHg and its ability to oxidize thiols have beenmore » reported to play decisive roles to the oxidative consequences observed after MeHg exposure. However, a close examination of the relationship between low levels of MeHg necessary to induce oxidative stress and the high amounts of sulfhydryl-containing antioxidants in mammalian cells (e.g., glutathione) have led to the hypothesis that nucleophilic groups with extremely high affinities for MeHg (e.g., selenols) might represent primary targets in MeHg-induced oxidative stress. Indeed, the inhibition of antioxidant selenoproteins during MeHg poisoning in experimental animals has corroborated this hypothesis. The levels of different reactive species (superoxide anion, hydrogen peroxide and nitric oxide) have been reported to be increased in MeHg-exposed systems, and the mechanisms concerning these increments seem to involve a complex sequence of cascading molecular events, such as mitochondrial dysfunction, excitotoxicity, intracellular calcium dyshomeostasis and decreased antioxidant capacity. This review also discusses potential therapeutic strategies to counteract MeHg-induced toxicity and oxidative stress, emphasizing the use of organic selenocompounds, which generally present higher affinity for MeHg when compared to the classically studied agents.« less

Utilities, Psychological Values, and the Training of Decision-Makers

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-06-01

Allais concentrates on the case when the consequences are money-amounts, his hypothesis can be applied to more general sets of consequences , as...regret having acted as you did?" Wc are reminded of Socrates1 dialogues, teaching wisdom by facing you with the consequences of your folly...events and 2) a real-valued function of the ’ consequences ’ c£. (i=l, .. . ,n_) , denoted by itei) > for — ’satisfaction’ B (£.) , for

The HZE radiation problem. [highly-charged energetic galactic cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schimmerling, Walter

1990-01-01

Radiation-exposure limits have yet to be established for missions envisioned in the framework of the Space Exploration Initiative. The radiation threat outside the earth's magnetosphere encompasses protons from solar particle events and the highly charged energetic particles constituting galactic cosmic rays; radiation biology entails careful consideration of the extremely nonuniform patterns of such particles' energy deposition. The ability to project such biological consequences of exposure to energetic particles as carcinogenicity currently involves great uncertainties from: (1) different regions of space; (2) the effects of spacecraft structures; and (3) the dose-effect relationships of single traversals of energetic particles.

Cavitation erosion prediction based on analysis of flow dynamics and impact load spectra

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mihatsch, Michael S., E-mail: michael.mihatsch@aer.mw.tum.de; Schmidt, Steffen J.; Adams, Nikolaus A.

2015-10-15

Cavitation erosion is the consequence of repeated collapse-induced high pressure-loads on a material surface. The present paper assesses the prediction of impact load spectra of cavitating flows, i.e., the rate and intensity distribution of collapse events based on a detailed analysis of flow dynamics. Data are obtained from a numerical simulation which employs a density-based finite volume method, taking into account the compressibility of both phases, and resolves collapse-induced pressure waves. To determine the spectrum of collapse events in the fluid domain, we detect and quantify the collapse of isolated vapor structures. As reference configuration we consider the expansion ofmore » a liquid into a radially divergent gap which exhibits unsteady sheet and cloud cavitation. Analysis of simulation data shows that global cavitation dynamics and dominant flow events are well resolved, even though the spatial resolution is too coarse to resolve individual vapor bubbles. The inviscid flow model recovers increasingly fine-scale vapor structures and collapses with increasing resolution. We demonstrate that frequency and intensity of these collapse events scale with grid resolution. Scaling laws based on two reference lengths are introduced for this purpose. We show that upon applying these laws impact load spectra recorded on experimental and numerical pressure sensors agree with each other. Furthermore, correlation between experimental pitting rates and collapse-event rates is found. Locations of high maximum wall pressures and high densities of collapse events near walls obtained numerically agree well with areas of erosion damage in the experiment. The investigation shows that impact load spectra of cavitating flows can be inferred from flow data that captures the main vapor structures and wave dynamics without the need for resolving all flow scales.« less

Cardiovascular consequences of childhood obesity.

PubMed

McCrindle, Brian W

2015-02-01

Childhood and adolescent overweight and obesity is an important and increasingly prevalent public health problem in Canada and worldwide. High adiposity in youth is indicated in clinical practice by plotting body mass index on appropriate percentile charts normed for age and sex, although waist measures might be a further tool. High adiposity can lead to adiposopathy in youth, with associated increases in inflammation and oxidative stress, changes in adipokines, and endocrinopathy. This is manifest as cardiometabolic risk factors in similar patterns to those in noted in obese adults. Obesity and cardiometabolic risk factors have been shown to be associated with vascular changes indicative of early atherosclerosis, and ventricular hypertrophy, dilation, and dysfunction. These cardiovascular consequences are evident in youth, but childhood obesity is also predictive of similar consequences in adulthood. Childhood obesity and risk factors have been shown to track into adulthood and worsen in most individuals. The result is an exponential acceleration of atherosclerosis, which can be predicted to translate into an epidemic of premature cardiovascular disease and events. A change in paradigm is needed toward preventing and curing atherosclerosis and not just preventing cardiovascular disease. This would necessarily create an imperative for preventing and treating childhood obesity. Urgent attention, policy, and action are needed to avoid the enormous future social and health care costs associated with the cardiovascular consequences of obesity in youth. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk analysis of urban gas pipeline network based on improved bow-tie model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hao, M. J.; You, Q. J.; Yue, Z.

2017-11-01

Gas pipeline network is a major hazard source in urban areas. In the event of an accident, there could be grave consequences. In order to understand more clearly the causes and consequences of gas pipeline network accidents, and to develop prevention and mitigation measures, the author puts forward the application of improved bow-tie model to analyze risks of urban gas pipeline network. The improved bow-tie model analyzes accident causes from four aspects: human, materials, environment and management; it also analyzes the consequences from four aspects: casualty, property loss, environment and society. Then it quantifies the causes and consequences. Risk identification, risk analysis, risk assessment, risk control, and risk management will be clearly shown in the model figures. Then it can suggest prevention and mitigation measures accordingly to help reduce accident rate of gas pipeline network. The results show that the whole process of an accident can be visually investigated using the bow-tie model. It can also provide reasons for and predict consequences of an unfortunate event. It is of great significance in order to analyze leakage failure of gas pipeline network.

Analysis of strong scintillation events by using GPS data at low latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forte, Biagio; Jakowski, Norbert; Wilken, Volker

2010-05-01

Drifting structures charaterised by inhomogeneities in the spatial electron density distribution at ionospheric heights originate scintillation of radio waves propagating through. The fractional electron density fluctuations and the corresponding scintillation levels may reach extreme values at low latitudes during high solar activity. Strong scintillation events have disruptive effects on a number of technological applications. In particular, operations and services based on GPS signals and receivers may experience severe disruption due to a significant degradation of the signal-to-noise ratio, eventually leading to signal loss of lock. Experimental scintillation data collected in the Asian sector at low latitudes by means of a GPS dual frequency receiver under moderate solar activity (2006) have been analysed. The GPS receiver is particularly modified in firmware in order to record power estimates on the C/A code as well as on the carriers L1 and L2. Strong scintillation activity is recorded in the post-sunset period (saturating S4 and SI as high as 20 dB). An overview of these events is presented, by taking into account scintillation impact on the signal intensity, phase, and dynamics. In particular, the interpretation of these events based on a refined scattering theory is provided with possible consequences for standard scintillation models.

Safety of Patient Mobilization and Rehabilitation in the Intensive Care Unit. Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Nydahl, Peter; Sricharoenchai, Thiti; Chandra, Saurabh; Kundt, Firuzan Sari; Huang, Minxuan; Fischill, Magdalena; Needham, Dale M

2017-05-01

Early mobilization and rehabilitation of patients in intensive care units (ICUs) may improve physical function, and reduce the duration of delirium, mechanical ventilation, and ICU length of stay. However, safety concerns are an important barrier to widespread implementation. To synthesize safety data regarding patient mobilization and rehabilitation in the ICU, including falls, removal of endotracheal tubes, removal or dysfunction of intravascular catheters, removal of other catheters/tubes, cardiac arrest, hemodynamic changes, and desaturation. Systematic literature review, including searches of five databases. Eligible studies evaluated patients who received mobilization-related interventions in the ICU. Exclusion criteria included: (1) case series with fewer than 10 patients; (2) majority of patients under 18 years of age; and (3) data not reported to permit calculation of incidence of safety events. Number of patients, mobilization/rehabilitation sessions, potential safety events, and events with negative consequences (e.g., requiring intervention or additional therapy). Heterogeneity was assessed by I 2 statistics, and bias assessed by the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and Cochrane risk of bias assessment. The literature search identified 20,660 titles. There were 48 eligible publications evaluating 7,546 patients, with 583 potential safety events occurring in 22,351 mobilization/rehabilitation sessions. There was a total of 583 (2.6%) potential safety events with heterogeneity in the definitions for these events. For the safety event types that could be meta-analyzed, pooled incidences per 1,000 mobilization/rehabilitation sessions (95% confidence interval), were: hemodynamic changes, 3.8 (1.3-11.4), and desaturation, 1.9 (0.9-4.3). A total of 24 studies of 3,404 patients reported on any consequences of potential safety events (e.g., needing to increase dose of vasopressor due to mobility-related hypotension), with a frequency of 0.6% in 14,398 mobilization/rehabilitation sessions. Patient mobilization and physical rehabilitation in the ICU appears safe, with a low incidence of potential safety events, and only rare events having any consequences for patient management. Heterogeneity in the definition of safety events across studies emphasizes the importance of implementing existing consensus-based definitions.

Adverse events among Ontario home care clients associated with emergency room visit or hospitalization: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Home care (HC) is a critical component of the ongoing restructuring of healthcare in Canada. It impacts three dimensions of healthcare delivery: primary healthcare, chronic disease management, and aging at home strategies. The purpose of our study is to investigate a significant safety dimension of HC, the occurrence of adverse events and their related outcomes. The study reports on the incidence of HC adverse events, the magnitude of the events, the types of events that occur, and the consequences experienced by HC clients in the province of Ontario. Methods A retrospective cohort design was used, utilizing comprehensive secondary databases available for Ontario HC clients from the years 2008 and 2009. The data were derived from the Canadian Home Care Reporting System, the Hospital Discharge Abstract Database, the National Ambulatory Care Reporting System, the Ontario Mental Health Reporting System, and the Continuing Care Reporting System. Descriptive analysis was used to identify the type and frequency of the adverse events recorded and the consequences of the events. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between the events and their consequences. Results The study found that the incident rate for adverse events for the HC clients included in the cohort was 13%. The most frequent adverse events identified in the databases were injurious falls, injuries from other than a fall, and medication-related incidents. With respect to outcomes, we determined that an injurious fall was associated with a significant increase in the odds of a client requiring long-term-care facility admission and of client death. We further determined that three types of events, delirium, sepsis, and medication-related incidents were associated directly with an increase in the odds of client death. Conclusions Our study concludes that 13% of clients in homecare experience an adverse event annually. We also determined that an injurious fall was the most frequent of the adverse events and was associated with increased admission to long-term care or death. We recommend the use of tools that are presently available in Canada, such as the Resident Assessment Instrument and its Clinical Assessment Protocols, for assessing and mitigating the risk of an adverse event occurring. PMID:23800280

Risk factors for acute chemical releases with public health consequences: Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance in the U.S., 1996–2001

PubMed Central

Ruckart, Perri Z; Wattigney, Wendy A; Kaye, Wendy E

2004-01-01

Background Releases of hazardous materials can cause substantial morbidity and mortality. To reduce and prevent the public health consequences (victims or evacuations) from uncontrolled or illegally released hazardous substances, a more comprehensive analysis is needed to determine risk factors for hazardous materials incidents. Methods Hazardous Substances Emergency Events Surveillance (HSEES) data from 1996 through 2001 were analyzed using bivariate and multiple logistic regression. Fixed-facility and transportation-related events were analyzed separately. Results For fixed-facility events, 2,327 (8%) resulted in at least one victim and 2,844 (10%) involved ordered evacuations. For transportation-related events, 759 (8%) resulted in at least one victim, and 405 (4%) caused evacuation orders. Fire and/or explosion were the strongest risk factors for events involving either victims or evacuations. Stratified analysis of fixed-facility events involving victims showed a strong association for acid releases in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industry. Chlorine releases in fixed-facility events resulted in victims and evacuations in more industry categories than any other substance. Conclusions Outreach efforts should focus on preventing and preparing for fires and explosions, acid releases in the agricultural industry, and chlorine releases in fixed facilities. PMID:15496226

Genetic consequences of sequential founder events by an island-colonizing bird.

PubMed

Clegg, Sonya M; Degnan, Sandie M; Kikkawa, Jiro; Moritz, Craig; Estoup, Arnaud; Owens, Ian P F

2002-06-11

The importance of founder events in promoting evolutionary changes on islands has been a subject of long-running controversy. Resolution of this debate has been hindered by a lack of empirical evidence from naturally founded island populations. Here we undertake a genetic analysis of a series of historically documented, natural colonization events by the silvereye species-complex (Zosterops lateralis), a group used to illustrate the process of island colonization in the original founder effect model. Our results indicate that single founder events do not affect levels of heterozygosity or allelic diversity, nor do they result in immediate genetic differentiation between populations. Instead, four to five successive founder events are required before indices of diversity and divergence approach that seen in evolutionarily old forms. A Bayesian analysis based on computer simulation allows inferences to be made on the number of effective founders and indicates that founder effects are weak because island populations are established from relatively large flocks. Indeed, statistical support for a founder event model was not significantly higher than for a gradual-drift model for all recently colonized islands. Taken together, these results suggest that single colonization events in this species complex are rarely accompanied by severe founder effects, and multiple founder events and/or long-term genetic drift have been of greater consequence for neutral genetic diversity.

Evaluation of LLNL BSL-3 Maximum Credible Event Potential Consequence to the General Population and Surrounding Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, M.

2010-08-16

The purpose of this evaluation is to establish reproducibility of the analysis and consequence results to the general population and surrounding environment in the LLNL Biosafety Level 3 Facility Environmental Assessment (LLNL 2008).

Monitoring and Risk Identification Caused by High Water, Floods and Erosion Processes in Urban Part of Sava Riverbed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oskoruš, D.; Miković, N.; Ljevar, I.

2012-04-01

Riverbed erosion and bottom deepening are part of natural fluvial processes in the upper stream of Sava River. The increasing gradient of those changes is interconnected with the level of human influence in the river basin and riverbed as well. In time period of last forty years the consequences of riverbed erosion are become serious as well as dangerous and they threaten the stability of hydro technical structures. The increasing value of flow velocity in riverbed in urban part of river section during high water level, mud and debris flow during the floods as well, is especially dangerous for old bridges. This paper contains result of velocity measurements during high waters taken by Hydrological Service of Republic Croatia, load transport monitoring during such events and cross sections in some vulnerable location. In this paper is given one example of Jakuševac railway bridge in Zagreb, heavily destroyed during high water event on the 30 March 2009., recently reconstructed by "Croatian Railways" company. Keywords: Riverbed erosion, flow velocity, mud and debris flow, risk identification, stability of bridges

Resident-to-Resident Aggression in Nursing Homes: Results from a Qualitative Event Reconstruction Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pillemer, Karl; Chen, Emily K.; Van Haitsma, Kimberly S.; Teresi, Jeanne; Ramirez, Mildred; Silver, Stephanie; Sukha, Gail; Lachs, Mark S.

2012-01-01

Purpose: Despite its prevalence and negative consequences, research on elder abuse has rarely considered resident-to-resident aggression (RRA) in nursing homes. This study employed a qualitative event reconstruction methodology to identify the major forms of RRA that occur in nursing homes. Design and methods: Events of RRA were identified within…

Stressful life events and the perpetration of adolescent dating abuse.

PubMed

Chen, May S; Foshee, Vangie A

2015-03-01

Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that stressful life events are associated with the perpetration of intimate partner violence among adults, but little attention has been given to the relationship between stressful life events and adolescent dating abuse, a prevalent form of violence that results in serious and long-lasting consequences. The current study addresses this gap by examining associations between family-, peer-, school-, and health-related stressful life events and the perpetration of both psychological and physical forms of dating abuse in a sample of 1,125 adolescents (54.6% female, 18% Black), and determining whether these associations are moderated by attributes of the family (closeness to parent) and the adolescent (sex and self-esteem). The total number of stressful events and school-related events were positively associated with the perpetration of psychological dating abuse and family-related events were related to the perpetration of psychological dating abuse for boys, but not girls. Closeness to parent buffered the effect of stressful health-related events on the perpetration of physical dating abuse, but exacerbated the effect of stressful family-related events on the perpetration of physical dating abuse. Health-related events were associated with physical perpetration for those with high, but not low self-esteem. Finally, the total number of stressful events and family-related events were related to the perpetration of physical dating abuse by boys, but not by girls. Taken together, these findings suggest that stressful life events play an important role in adolescent dating abuse, and should be taken into consideration when developing adolescent dating abuse prevention programs.

Global risk from extreme geophysical events: threat identification and assessment.

PubMed

McGuire, W J

2006-08-15

In an increasingly interconnected world, any single geophysical hazard is capable of having consequences far beyond the range of immediate physical effects. Most recently, this was demonstrated by the 2004 Asian tsunami, which took the lives of citizens from 57 different nations, and by Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, which raised fuel prices worldwide and contributed to a record UK trade deficit in the month following the devastation of New Orleans. On an altogether wider scale, global geophysical events (GGEs) are natural phenomena capable of having wholesale deleterious consequences for the world's environment, economy and society. These may arise (i) due to a global physical effect, such as an episode of severe planetary cooling in response to a volcanic 'super-eruption' or large comet or asteroid impact, or (ii) as a result of subsidiary ramifications for the global economy and social fabric of a cataclysmic regional event, such as an Atlantic- or Pacific-wide 'mega-tsunami', or a more spatially confined event at a strategically sensitive location, for example the awaited major Tokyo earthquake. While very infrequent, the wide-ranging-and potentially ruinous-consequences of a GGE for the well-being of the international community make it essential that they are seriously considered within any comprehensive assessment of natural threats.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences, with consequences being a function of the intensity of the physical weather event, the exposure and value of assets, and vulnerabilities. We have examined selected major extreme events and disasters, including superstorm Sandy in 2012, the Pakistan floods and the heat wave in Russia in 2010, the 2010 floods in Colombia and the 2011 floods in Australia. We systematically analyzed to what extent (anthropogenic) climate change may have contributed to intensity and frequency of the event, along with changes in the other risk variables, to eventually reach a more comprehensive understanding of the relative role of climate change in recent loss and damage of extreme weather events.

Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect human rights, promote social justice, and avoid creating new problems or exacerbating existing problems for vulnerable populations. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Paper 8775 - Integrating Natural Resources and Ecological Science into the Disaster Risk CYCLE: Lessons Learned and Future Directions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosnan, D. M.

2014-12-01

Familiar to disaster risk reduction (DRR) scientists and professionals, the disaster cycle is an adaptive approach that involves planning, response and learning for the next event. It has proven effective in saving lives and helping communities around the world deal with natural and other hazards. But it has rarely been applied to natural resource and ecological science, despite the fact that many communities are dependent on these resources. This presentation will include lessons learned from applying science to tackle ecological consequences in several disasters in the US and globally, including the Colorado Floods, the SE Asia tsunami, the Montserrat volcanic eruption, and US SAFRR tsunami scenario. The presentation discusses the role that science and scientists can play at each phase of the disaster cycle. The consequences of not including disaster cycles in the management of natural systems leaves these resources and the huge investments made to protect highly vulnerable. The presentation discusses how The presentation discusses how science can help government and communities in planning and responding to these events. It concludes with a set of lessons learned and guidlines for moving forward.

Environmental Consequences of Rapid Urbanization in Zhejiang Province, East China

PubMed Central

Yang, Xuchao; Yue, Wenze; Xu, Honghui; Wu, Jingsheng; He, Yue

2014-01-01

Since reforms carried out in the late 1970s, China has experienced unprecedented rates of urban growth. Remote sensing data and surface observational data are used to investigate the urbanization process and related environmental consequences, focusing on extreme heat events and air pollution, in Zhejiang Province (ZJP, East China). Examination of satellite-measured nighttime light data indicates rapid urbanization in ZJP during the past decade, initially forming three urban clusters. With rapid urban sprawl, a significant Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has emerged. During extreme heat events in summer, the UHI effect significantly exacerbates nocturnal heat stress in highly urbanized areas. Taking a long-term view, urbanization also causes additional hot days and hot degree days in urban areas. Urbanization also imposes a heavy burden on local and regional air quality in ZJP. Degraded visibility and an increase in haze days are observed at most meteorological stations, especially in the three urban clusters. The results show that urbanization has led to serious environmental problems in ZJP, not only on the city scale, but also on the regional scale. Maintaining a balance between the continuing process of urbanization and environmental sustainability is a major issue facing the local government. PMID:25019266

Environmental consequences of rapid urbanization in zhejiang province, East china.

PubMed

Yang, Xuchao; Yue, Wenze; Xu, Honghui; Wu, Jingsheng; He, Yue

2014-07-11

Since reforms carried out in the late 1970s, China has experienced unprecedented rates of urban growth. Remote sensing data and surface observational data are used to investigate the urbanization process and related environmental consequences, focusing on extreme heat events and air pollution, in Zhejiang Province (ZJP, East China). Examination of satellite-measured nighttime light data indicates rapid urbanization in ZJP during the past decade, initially forming three urban clusters. With rapid urban sprawl, a significant Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect has emerged. During extreme heat events in summer, the UHI effect significantly exacerbates nocturnal heat stress in highly urbanized areas. Taking a long-term view, urbanization also causes additional hot days and hot degree days in urban areas. Urbanization also imposes a heavy burden on local and regional air quality in ZJP. Degraded visibility and an increase in haze days are observed at most meteorological stations, especially in the three urban clusters. The results show that urbanization has led to serious environmental problems in ZJP, not only on the city scale, but also on the regional scale. Maintaining a balance between the continuing process of urbanization and environmental sustainability is a major issue facing the local government.

NOVA2-mediated RNA regulation is required for axonal pathfinding during development

PubMed Central

Saito, Yuhki; Miranda-Rottmann, Soledad; Ruggiu, Matteo; Park, Christopher Y; Fak, John J; Zhong, Ru; Duncan, Jeremy S; Fabella, Brian A; Junge, Harald J; Chen, Zhe; Araya, Roberto; Fritzsch, Bernd; Hudspeth, A J; Darnell, Robert B

2016-01-01

The neuron specific RNA-binding proteins NOVA1 and NOVA2 are highly homologous alternative splicing regulators. NOVA proteins regulate at least 700 alternative splicing events in vivo, yet relatively little is known about the biologic consequences of NOVA action and in particular about functional differences between NOVA1 and NOVA2. Transcriptome-wide searches for isoform-specific functions, using NOVA1 and NOVA2 specific HITS-CLIP and RNA-seq data from mouse cortex lacking either NOVA isoform, reveals that NOVA2 uniquely regulates alternative splicing events of a series of axon guidance related genes during cortical development. Corresponding axonal pathfinding defects were specific to NOVA2 deficiency: Nova2-/- but not Nova1-/- mice had agenesis of the corpus callosum, and axonal outgrowth defects specific to ventral motoneuron axons and efferent innervation of the cochlea. Thus we have discovered that NOVA2 uniquely regulates alternative splicing of a coordinate set of transcripts encoding key components in cortical, brainstem and spinal axon guidance/outgrowth pathways during neural differentiation, with severe functional consequences in vivo. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14371.001 PMID:27223325

Hazard perception and the economic impact of internment on residential land values

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Merz, J.F.

1983-04-01

The potential for large scale natural and man-made hazards exists in the form of hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, floods, dams, accidents involving poisonous, explosive or radioactive materials, and severe pollution or waste disposal mishaps. Regions prone to natural hazards and areas located proximally to technological hazards may be subject to economic losses from low probability-high consequence events. Economic costs may be incurred in: evacuation and relocation of inhabitants; personal, industrial, agricultural, and tax revenue losses; decontamination; property damage or loss of value; and temporary or prolonged internment of land. The value of land in an area subjected to a low probability-highmore » consequence event may decrease, reflecting, a fortiori, a reluctance to continue living in the area or to repopulate a region which had required internment. The future value of such land may be described as a function of location, time, interdiction period (if applicable), and variables reflecting the magnitude of the perceived hazard. This paper presents a study of these variables and proposes a model for land value estimation. As an example, the application of the model to the Love Canal area in Niagara Falls, New York is presented.« less

Hydro-Meteocean Nature of some Extreme Flood Events and Some Consequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diez, J. Javier

2013-04-01

The Santa Irene flood event, at the end of October 1982, is one of the most dramatically widely reported flood events in Spain. Its renown is mainly due to the collapse of the Tous dam, but its main message is to be the paradigm of the incidence of the maritime/littoral weather and its temporal sea level rise on the coastal plains inland floods. Looking at damages the paper analyzes the adapted measures from the point of view of the aims of the FP7 SMARTeST Project related to the Flood Resilience improvement in urban areas through looking for Technologies, Systems and Tools an appropriate "road to de market". The event, as frequently, was due to a meteorological phenomenon known as "gota fría" (cold drop), a relatively frequent and intense rainy phenomenon on the Iberian Peninsula, particularly on the Spanish east to southeast inlands and coasts. There are some circumstances that can easily come together to unleash the cold drop there: cold and dry polar air masses coming onto the whole Iberian Peninsula and the north of Africa, high sea water temperatures, and low atmospheric pressure (cyclone) areas in the western Mediterranean basin; these circumstances are quite common during the autumn season there, and, as it happens, in other places around the world (East/Southeast Africa). Their occurrence, however shows a great space-temporal variability (in a similar way to hurricanes, on Caribbean and western North-Atlantic areas, or to typhoons do). As a matter of fact, all of these equivalent though different phenomena may have different magnitude each time. This paper describes the results of a detailed analysis and reflection about this cold drop phenomenon as a whole, on the generation of its rains and on the different natures and consequences of its flood. This paper explains also the ways in which the maritime weather in front of the basin and the consequent sea level govern floods on the lowest zone of any hydrographical basin, showing that event as a real paradigm to explain that climatic conditions in the adjacent marine basin influence on coastal and even inland flooding phenomena. It then briefly analyzes also other apparently different kind of flood events on further upper inlands and compares the respective maritime processes and inland floods to show the relevance of the former in the right description of the latter. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: cold drop; Santa Irene flood; coastal flood; marine flood; dam collapse; maritime weather; storm surge; set-up; cyclones; sea level. Hurricanes.

The Impact of Novel Technologies on the Environment Throughout History

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilyinskii, P.

Several known historical processes or events, especially those with a manifest environmental impact will be assessed from a technological standpoint. Recent technological advances made results of technological intervention into the nature much more rapid than before and therefore the assessment of prior experiences is both helpful and necessary. Three types of consequences of technological intervention are discerned: (1) ‘slow progressors’, i.e., such risks that accumulate throughout substantial time spans and are not instantaneously obvious, and those of (2) intermediate and (3) immediate impact. The capacity to reverse the negative consequences of each type of intervention inversely correlates with their manifestation speed. Specifically, the events of the third type often result from the ‘interaction with the absolutely unknown’ often need to be remedied in an urgent manner. Each of these types of environmental impacts will be illustrated with a known historical event. It is likely that the same three types of negative consequences will be seen in the nearest future upon the development and utilization of novel bio-organical and biotechnological products. These risks will be also discussed in a historical perspective.

EMP/GMD Phase 0 Report, A Review of EMP Hazard Environments and Impacts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivera, Michael Kelly; Backhaus, Scott N.; Woodroffe, Jesse Richard

The purpose of this study is to determine methods to analyze the hazard environments, impacts, and consequences of different sources of electromagnetic pulse (EMP), including nuclear electromagnetic pulse (NEMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) on the U.S. electric power infrastructures and to use those methods to determine EMP and GMD events of concern. The study will be carried out in four phases, each of which will provide higher levels of analytic fidelity that focuses on those EMP/GMD sources and events that create significant consequences, or whose consequences are sufficiently uncertain, to require more in-depth study. This study will leverage the bestmore » experimental data; device, equipment and system models; and simulation tools currently available. This study focuses primarily on the bulk electric system (BES) including large generating stations, large power transformers, the transmission network, and transmission system protection. Electrical distribution systems may potentially be included, if warranted, after consideration of the consequences for the bulk power system.« less

Geomorphologically effective floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emmer, Adam

2017-12-01

Outburst floods originating in moraine-dammed lakes represent a significant geomorphological process as well as a specific type of threat for local communities in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru (8.5°-10° S; 77°-78° W). An exceptional concentration of catastrophic floods has been reported from the Cordillera Blanca in the first half of 20th Century (1930s-1950s), leading to thousands of fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to provide a revised and comprehensive overview of geomorphologically effective floods in the area of interest, using various documentary data sources, verified by analysis of remotely sensed images (1948-2013) and enhanced by original field data. Verified events (n = 28; 4 not mentioned before) are analysed from the perspective of spatiotemporal distribution, pre-flood conditions, causes, mechanisms and geomorphological impacts as well as socioeconomical consequences, revealing certain patterns and similar features. GLOFs are further classified according to their magnitude: 5 extreme events, 8 major events and 15 minor events are distinguished, referring to the quantified geomorphological and socioeconomical impacts. Selected moraine dams and flood deposits are dated using lichenometric dating. Special attention is given to moraine dam breaches - the most frequent type of water release with the most significant consequences. Selected major events and their consequences are studied in detail in a separate section. Finally, a general schematic model of lake formation, growth and post-flood evolution reflecting initial topographical setting and glacier retreat is introduced and the utilization of the obtained results is outlined.

Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) Marine Safety Risk Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

calculation of the rate of loss events and the associated consequences. Further, the selected tool supports a clear understanding of the drivers of failures...spreadsheet software. The event tree has a series of events stated in a success mode, or simply as the occurrence of a phenomenological condition. The...Public | December 2013 of a “transit” (when applicable). As subsequent events occur, there is a branch point, one branch representing success and the

A computational evaluation of sedentary lifestyle effects on carotid hemodynamics and atherosclerotic events incidence.

PubMed

Caruso, Maria Vittoria; Serra, Raffaele; Perri, Paolo; Buffone, Gianluca; Caliò, Francesco Giuseppe; DE Franciscis, Stefano; Fragomeni, Fragomeni

2017-01-01

Hemodynamics has a key role in atheropathogenesis. Indeed, atherosclerotic phenomena occur in vessels characterized by complex geometry and flow pattern, like the carotid bifurcation. Moreover, lifestyle is a significant risk factor. The aim of this study is to evaluate the hemodynamic effects due to two sedentary lifestyles - sitting and standing positions - in the carotid bifurcation in order to identify the worst condition and to investigate the atherosclerosis incidence. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD) was chosen to carry out the analysis, in which in vivo non-invasive measurements were used as boundary conditions. Furthermore, to compare the two conditions, one patient-specific 3D model of a carotid bifurcation was reconstructed starting from computer tomography. Different mechanical indicators, correlated with atherosclerosis incidence, were calculated in addition to flow pattern and pressure distribution: the time average wall shear stress (TAWSS), the oscillatory shear index (OSI) and the relative residence time (RRT). The results showed that the bulb and the external carotid artery emergence are the most probable regions in which atherosclerotic events could happen. Indeed, low velocity and WSS values, high OSI and, as a consequence, areas with chaotic-swirling flow, with stasis (high RRT), occur. Moreover, the sitting position is the worst condition: considering a cardiac cycle, TAWSS is less than 17.2% and OSI and RRT are greater than 17.5% and 21.2%, respectively. This study suggests that if a person spends much time in the sitting position, a high risk of plaque formation and, consequently, of stenosis could happen.

Consequences of the river valley bottom transformation after extreme flood (on the example of the Niida River, Japan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botavin, D.; Golosov, V.; Konoplev, A.; Wakiyama, Y.

2018-01-01

Detailed study of different sections of floodplain was undertaken in the Niida River basin (Fukushima Prefecture) after an extreme flood event which occurred in the middle of September 2015. The upstream part of the basin is located in the area with very high level of radionuclide contamination after the accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. Field and GIS methods were used, including direct measurement of the depth of fresh sediment and its area, with soil descriptions for the typical floodplain sections, measurement of dose rates, interpretation of space images for a few time intervals (before and after flood event) with the following evaluation of spatial changes in deposition for different floodplain sections. In addition, results of quantitative assessment of sedimentation rates and soil radionuclide contamination were applied for understanding the effect of extreme flood on alluvial soils of the different sections. It was established that the maximum sedimentation rates (20-50 cm/event) occurred in the middle part of the lower reach of the Niida River and in some locations of the upper reaches. Dose rates had reduced considerably for all the areas with high sedimentation because the top soil layers with high radionuclide contamination were buried under fresh sediments produced mostly due to bank erosion and mass movements.

Longitudinal confocal microscopy imaging of solid tumor destruction following adoptive T cell transfer

PubMed Central

Schietinger, Andrea; Arina, Ainhoa; Liu, Rebecca B; Wells, Sam; Huang, Jianhua; Engels, Boris; Bindokas, Vytas; Bartkowiak, Todd; Lee, David; Herrmann, Andreas; Piston, David W; Pittet, Mikael J; Lin, P Charles; Zal, Tomasz; Schreiber, Hans

2013-01-01

A fluorescence-based, high-resolution imaging approach was used to visualize longitudinally the cellular events unfolding during T cell-mediated tumor destruction. The dynamic interplay of T cells, cancer cells, cancer antigen loss variants, and stromal cells—all color-coded in vivo—was analyzed in established, solid tumors that had developed behind windows implanted on the backs of mice. Events could be followed repeatedly within precisely the same tumor region—before, during and after adoptive T cell therapy—thereby enabling for the first time a longitudinal in vivo evaluation of protracted events, an analysis not possible with terminal imaging of surgically exposed tumors. T cell infiltration, stromal interactions, and vessel destruction, as well as the functional consequences thereof, including the elimination of cancer cells and cancer cell variants were studied. Minimal perivascular T cell infiltrates initiated vascular destruction inside the tumor mass eventually leading to macroscopic central tumor necrosis. Prolonged engagement of T cells with tumor antigen-crosspresenting stromal cells correlated with high IFNγ cytokine release and bystander elimination of antigen-negative cancer cells. The high-resolution, longitudinal, in vivo imaging approach described here will help to further a better mechanistic understanding of tumor eradication by T cells and other anti-cancer therapies. PMID:24482750

Comparative hazard analysis of processes leading to remarkable flash floods (France, 1930-1999)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, M.; Lang, M.; Vinet, F.; Cœur, D.

2016-10-01

Flash flood events are responsible for large economic losses and lead to fatalities every year in France. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean and oversea territories/departments of France, characterized by extreme hydro-climatological features and with a large part of the population exposed to flood risks. The recurrence of remarkable flash flood events, associated with high hazard intensity, significant damage and socio-political consequences, therefore raises several issues for authorities and risk management policies. This study aims to improve our understanding of the hazard analysis process in the case of four remarkable flood events: March 1930, October 1940, January 1980 and November 1999. Firstly, we present the methodology used to define the remarkability score of a flood event. Then, to identify the factors leading to a remarkable flood event, we explore the main parameters of the hazard analysis process, such as the meteorological triggering conditions, the return period of the rainfall and peak discharge, as well as some additional factors (initial catchment state, flood chronology, cascade effects, etc.). The results contribute to understanding the complexity of the processes leading to flood hazard and highlight the importance for risk managers of taking additional factors into account.

The Local Tissue Environment During the September 29, 1989 Solar Particle Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, M.-H. Y.; Wilson, J. W.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Simonsen, L. C.; Atwell, W.; Badavi, F. F.; Miller, J.

2004-01-01

The solar particle event (SPE) of September 29, 1989, produced an iron-rich spectrum with energies approaching 1 GeV/amu with an energy power index of 2.5. These high charge and energy (HZE) ions of the iron-rich SPEs challenge conventional methods of SPE shield design and assessment of astronaut risks. Shield and risk assessments are evaluated using the HZETRN code with computerized anatomical man (CAM) model for astronaut s body tissues. Since the HZE spectra decline rapidly with energy and HZE attenuation in materials is limited by their penetration power, details of the mass distributions about the sensitive tissues (shielding materials and the astronaut's body) are important determining factors of the exposure levels. Typical space suit and lightly shielded structures allow significant contributions from HZE components to some critical body tissues and have important implications on the models for risk assessment. Only a heavily shielded equipment room of a space vehicle or habitat provides sufficient shielding for the early response at sensitive organs from this event. The February 23, 1956 event of similar spectral characteristics and ten times this event may have important medical consequences without a well-shielded region.

Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans: ``I Told You So'' Is Not Enough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groat, Charles

2005-09-01

There has not been a major natural-hazard related disaster in modern times that wasn't preceded by warnings from scientists about the potential consequences of the intersection of populations, infrastructure, and extreme natural events. We have taken our understanding of the frequency of these events and the processes associated with them to the table as earthquake-prone cities have contemplated zoning regulations and building standards, floodplain communities and government agencies have sought to improve flood insurance programs, and settlement has moved into wildland fire danger zones. We have celebrated when we were heeded, but more often we have been frustrated when the impacts of a natural hazard were as we predicted and the opportunity for scientific understanding to have reduced consequences of the event was missed by decision-makers.

Safety in the operating room during orthopedic trauma surgery-incidence of adverse events related to technical equipment and logistics.

PubMed

van Delft, E A K; Schepers, T; Bonjer, H J; Kerkhoffs, G M M J; Goslings, J C; Schep, N W L

2018-04-01

Safety in the operating room is widely debated. Adverse events during surgery are potentially dangerous for the patient and staff. The incidence of adverse events during orthopedic trauma surgery is unknown. Therefore, we performed a study to quantify the incidence of these adverse events. Primary objective was to determine the incidence of adverse events related to technical equipment and logistics. The secondary objective was to evaluate the consequences of these adverse events. We completed a cross-sectional observational study to assess the incidence, consequences and preventability of adverse events related to technical equipment and logistics during orthopedic trauma surgery. During a 10 week period, all orthopedic trauma operations were evaluated by an observer. Six types of procedures were differentiated: osteosynthesis; arthroscopy; removal of hardware; joint replacement; bone grafting and other. Adverse events were divided in six categories: staff dependent factors; patient dependent factors; anaesthesia; imaging equipment; operation room equipment and instruments and implants. Adverse events were defined as any factor affecting the surgical procedure in a negative way. Hundred-fifty operative procedures were included. In 54% of the procedures, at least one adverse event occurred. In total, 147 adverse events occurred, with a range of 1-5 per procedure. Most adverse events occurred during joint replacement procedures. Thirty-seven percent of the incidents concerned defect, incorrect connected or absent instruments. In 36% of the procedures adverse events resulted in a prolonged operation time with a median prolongation of 10.0 min. In more than half of orthopedic trauma surgical procedures adverse events related to technical equipment and logistics occurred, most of them could easily be prevented. These adverse events could endanger the safety of the patient and staff and should therefore be reduced. 4.

[Passive smoking--health consequences and effects of exposure prevention].

PubMed

Raupach, T; Radon, K; Nowak, D; Andreas, S

2008-01-01

Passive smoking is the third leading but preventable cause of death worldwide. It is associated with an elevated risk of developing acute respiratory diseases, obstructive lung disorders, lung cancer, and cardiovascular disease. Whereas the dose-response relationship between second-hand smoke exposure and respiratory diseases is likely to be linear, a non-linear dose-response curve has been observed with respect to acute cardiovascular events. This explains the disproportionately high risk of myocardial infarction among passive smokers as compared to unexposed individuals. Over the last ten years, exposure to second-hand smoke has declined in Germany, but it is still substantial. With passive smoking in the home being a difficult target for preventive measures, public smoking bans have recently been shown to greatly reduce second-hand smoke-related morbidity and mortality. In addition, such measures are usually well tolerated and highly relevant regarding legal aspects related to workplace issues. This article summarises the current evidence on the health consequences of passive smoking and on the favourable effects of public smoking bans.

Sub-seasonal Predictability of Heavy Precipitation Events: Implication for Real-time Flood Management in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, H.; Shahbazi, A.; Zohrabi, N.; Robertson, A. W.; Mofidi, A.; Massah Bavani, A. R.

2016-12-01

Each year, a number of high impact weather events occur worldwide. Since any level of predictability at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale is highly beneficial to society, international efforts is now on progress to promote reliable Ensemble Prediction Systems for monthly forecasts within the WWRP/WCRP initiative (S2S) project and North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME). For water resources managers in the face of extreme events, not only can reliable forecasts of high impact weather events prevent catastrophic losses caused by floods but also contribute to benefits gained from hydropower generation and water markets. The aim of this paper is to analyze the predictability of recent severe weather events over Iran. Two recent heavy precipitations are considered as an illustration to examine whether S2S forecasts can be used for developing flood alert systems especially where large cascade of dams are in operation. Both events have caused major damages to cities and infrastructures. The first severe precipitation was is in the early November 2015 when heavy precipitation (more than 50 mm) occurred in 2 days. More recently, up to 300 mm of precipitation is observed within less than a week in April 2016 causing a consequent flash flood. Over some stations, the observed precipitation was even more than the total annual mean precipitation. To analyze the predictive capability, ensemble forecasts from several operational centers including (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) system, Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Chinese Meteorological Center (CMA) are evaluated. It has been observed that significant changes in precipitation anomalies were likely to be predicted days in advance. The next step will be to conduct thorough analysis based on comparing multi-model outputs over the full hindcast dataset developing real-time high impact weather prediction systems.

Aerosol particle shrinkage event phenomenology in a South European suburban area during 2009-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso-Blanco, E.; Gómez-Moreno, F. J.; Núñez, L.; Pujadas, M.; Cusack, M.; Artíñano, B.

2017-07-01

A high number of aerosol particle shrinkage cases (70) have been identified and analyzed from an extensive and representative database of aerosol size distributions obtained between 2009 and 2015 at an urban background site in Madrid (Spain). A descriptive classification based on the process from which the shrinkage began is proposed according which shrinkage events were divided into three groups: (1) NPF + shrinkage (NPF + S) events, (2) aerosol particle growth process + shrinkage (G + S) events, and (3) pure shrinkage (S) events. The largest number of shrinkages corresponded to the S-type followed by NPF + S, while the G + S events were the least frequent group recorded. Duration of shrinkages varied widely from 0.75 to 8.5 h and SR from -1.0 to -11.1 nm h-1. These processes typically occurred in the afternoon, around 18:00 UTC, caused by two situations: i) a wind speed increase usually associated with a change in the wind direction (over 60% of the observations) and ii) the reduction of photochemical activity at the end of the day. All shrinkages were detected during the warm period, mainly between May and August, when local meteorological conditions (high solar irradiance and temperature and low relative humidity), atmospheric processes (high photochemical activity) and availability of aerosol-forming precursors were favorable for their development. As a consequence of these processes, the particles concentration corresponding to the Aitken mode decreased into the nucleation mode. The accumulation mode did not undergo significant changes during these processes. In some cases, a dilution of the particulate content in the ambient air was observed. This work, goes further than others works dealing with aerosol particles shrinkages, as it incorporates as a main novelty a classification methodology for studying these processes. Moreover, compared to other studies, it is supported by a high and representative number of observations. Thus, this study contributes to get a better understanding of this type of atmospheric aerosol transformations and its features.

Learning from adverse incidents involving medical devices.

PubMed

Amoore, John; Ingram, Paula

While an adverse event involving a medical device is often ascribed to either user error or device failure, the causes are typically multifactorial. A number of incidents involving medical devices are explored using this approach to investigate the various causes of the incident and the protective barriers that minimised or prevented adverse consequences. User factors, including mistakes, omissions and lack of training, conspired with background factors--device controls and device design, storage conditions, hidden device damage and physical layout of equipment when in use--to cause the adverse events. Protective barriers that prevented or minimised the consequences included staff vigilance, operating procedures and alarms.

Reducing risk of pressure sores: effects of watch prompts and alarm avoidance on wheelchair push-ups.

PubMed Central

White, G W; Mathews, R M; Fawcett, S B

1989-01-01

People who use wheelchairs are at risk for developing pressure sores. Regular pressure relief, in the form of a wheelchair push-up, is one way to reduce the likelihood of pressure sores. We examined the effects of antecedent (i.e., instructions, audible prompts) and consequent (i.e., alarm avoidance) events on wheelchair push-ups, using a multiple baseline analysis with 2 participants with spina bifida. Results suggest that the combined procedure was more effective than either antecedent or consequent events alone, and there is some evidence suggesting maintenance of effects over time. PMID:2793635

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frédéric; Rinaldi, Antonio P.

In this paper, we present model simulations of ground motions caused by CO 2 -injection-induced fault reactivation and analyze the results in terms of the potential for damage to ground surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. It is an integrated analysis from cause to consequence, including the whole chain of processes starting from earthquake inception in the subsurface, wave propagation toward the ground surface, and assessment of the consequences of ground vibration. For a small magnitude (M w =3) event at a hypocenter depth of about 1000m, we first used the simulated ground-motion wave train in anmore » inverse analysis to estimate source parameters (moment magnitude, rupture dimensions and stress drop), achieving good agreement and thereby verifying the modeling of the chain of processes from earthquake inception to ground vibration. We then analyzed the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and frequency content, with comparison to U.S. Geological Survey's instrumental intensity scales for earthquakes and the U.S. Bureau of Mines' vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. Our results confirm the appropriateness of using PGV (rather than PGA) and frequency for the evaluation of potential ground-vibration effects on structures and humans from shallow injection-induced seismic events. For the considered synthetic M w =3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less

Consequences of an uncertain mass mortality regime triggered by climate variability on giant clam population management in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Andréfouët, Serge; Gaertner-Mazouni, Nabila; Remoissenet, Georges

2018-02-01

Despite actions to manage sustainably tropical Pacific Ocean reef fisheries, managers have faced failures and frustrations because of unpredicted mass mortality events triggered by climate variability. The consequences of these events on the long-term population dynamics of living resources need to be better understood for better management decisions. Here, we use a giant clam (Tridacna maxima) spatially explicit population model to compare the efficiency of several management strategies under various scenarios of natural mortality, including mass mortality due to climatic anomalies. The model was parameterized by in situ estimations of growth and mortality and fishing effort, and was validated by historical and new in situ surveys of giant clam stocks in two French Polynesia lagoons. Projections on the long run (100 years) suggested that the best management strategy was a decrease of fishing pressure through quota implementation, regardless of the mortality regime considered. In contrast, increasing the minimum legal size of catch and closing areas to fishing were less efficient. When high mortality occurred due to climate variability, the efficiency of all management scenarios decreased markedly. Simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation event by adding temporal autocorrelation in natural mortality rates increased the natural variability of stocks, and also decreased the efficiency of management. These results highlight the difficulties that managers in small Pacific islands can expect in the future in the face of global warming, climate anomalies and new mass mortalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neonatal Nurses Experience Unintended Consequences and Risks to Patient Safety With Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Dudding, Katherine M; Gephart, Sheila M; Carrington, Jane M

2018-04-01

In this article, we examine the unintended consequences of nurses' use of electronic health records. We define these as unforeseen events, change in workflow, or an unanticipated result of implementation and use of electronic health records. Unintended consequences experienced by nurses while using electronic health records have been well researched. However, few studies have focused on neonatal nurses, and it is unclear to what extent unintended consequences threaten patient safety. A new instrument called the Carrington-Gephart Unintended Consequences of Electronic Health Record Questionnaire has been validated, and secondary analysis using the tool explored the phenomena among neonatal nurses (N = 40). The purposes of this study were to describe unintended consequences of use of electronic health records for neonatal nurses and to explore relationships between the phenomena and characteristics of the nurse and the electronic health record. The most frequent unintended consequences of electronic health record use were due to interruptions, followed by a heavier workload due to the electronic health record, changes to the workflow, and altered communication patterns. Neonatal nurses used workarounds most often with motivation to better assist patients. Teamwork was moderately related to higher unintended consequences including patient safety risks (r = 0.427, P = .007), system design (r = 0.419, P = .009), and technology barriers (r = 0.431, P = .007). Communication about patients was reduced when patient safety risks were high (r = -0.437, P = .003). By determining the frequency with which neonatal nurses experience unintended consequences of electronic health record use, future research can be targeted to improve electronic health record design through customization, integration, and refinement to support patient safety and better outcomes.

Effect of elevation on extreme precipitation of short durations: evidences of orographic signature on the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo

2015-04-01

Here, we show how atmospheric circulation and topography rule the variability of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curves parameters, and we discuss how this variability has physical implications on the formation of extreme precipitations at high elevations. A DDF is a curve ruling the value of the maximum annual precipitation H as a function of duration D and the level of probability F. We consider around 1500 stations over the Italian territory, with at least 20 years of data of maximum annual precipitation depth at different durations. We estimated the DDF parameters at each location by using the asymptotic distribution of extreme values, i.e. the so-called Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, and considering a statistical simple scale invariance hypothesis. Consequently, a DDF curve depends on five different parameters. A first set relates H with the duration (namely, the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration and the scaling exponent), while a second set links H to F (namely, a scale, position and shape parameter). The value of the shape parameter has consequences on the type of random variable (unbounded, upper or lower bounded). This extensive analysis shows that the variability of the mean value of annual maximum precipitation depth for unit duration obeys to the coupled effect of topography and modal direction of moisture flux during extreme events. Median values of this parameter decrease with elevation. We called this phenomenon "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations, since it is in contrast with general knowledge about the orographic effect on mean precipitation. Moreover, the scaling exponent is mainly driven by topography alone (with increasing values of this parameter at increasing elevations). Therefore, the quantiles of H(D,F) at durations greater than unit turn to be more variable at high elevations than at low elevations. Additionally, the analysis of the variability of the shape parameter with elevation shows that extreme events at high elevations appear to be distributed according to an upper bounded probability distribution. These evidences could be a characteristic sign of the formation of extreme precipitation events at high elevations.

Warmer and wetter winters: characteristics and implications of an extreme weather event in the High Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, Brage B.; Isaksen, Ketil; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Åshild Ø.; Loe, Leif E.; Coulson, Stephen J.; Larsen, Jan Otto; Varpe, Øystein

2014-11-01

One predicted consequence of global warming is an increased frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, droughts, or heavy rainfalls. In parts of the Arctic, extreme warm spells and heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) events in winter are already more frequent. How these weather events impact snow-pack and permafrost characteristics is rarely documented empirically, and the implications for wildlife and society are hence far from understood. Here we characterize and document the effects of an extreme warm spell and ROS event that occurred in High Arctic Svalbard in January-February 2012, during the polar night. In this normally cold semi-desert environment, we recorded above-zero temperatures (up to 7 °C) across the entire archipelago and record-breaking precipitation, with up to 98 mm rainfall in one day (return period of >500 years prior to this event) and 272 mm over the two-week long warm spell. These precipitation amounts are equivalent to 25 and 70% respectively of the mean annual total precipitation. The extreme event caused significant increase in permafrost temperatures down to at least 5 m depth, induced slush avalanches with resultant damage to infrastructure, and left a significant ground-ice cover (˜5-20 cm thick basal ice). The ground-ice not only affected inhabitants by closing roads and airports as well as reducing mobility and thereby tourism income, but it also led to high starvation-induced mortality in all monitored populations of the wild reindeer by blocking access to the winter food source. Based on empirical-statistical downscaling of global climate models run under the moderate RCP4.5 emission scenario, we predict strong future warming with average mid-winter temperatures even approaching 0 °C, suggesting increased frequency of ROS. This will have far-reaching implications for Arctic ecosystems and societies through the changes in snow-pack and permafrost properties.

Should health insurers target prevention of cardiovascular disease?: a cost-effectiveness analysis of an individualised programme in Germany based on routine data

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death worldwide, making their prevention a major health care challenge. In 2006, a German statutory health insurance company presented a novel individualised prevention programme (KardioPro), which focused on coronary heart disease (CHD) screening, risk factor assessment, early detection and secondary prevention. This study evaluates KardioPro in CHD risk subgroups, and analyses the cost-effectiveness of different individualised prevention strategies. Methods The CHD risk subgroups were assembled based on routine data from the statutory health insurance company, making use of a quasi-beta regression model for risk prediction. The control group was selected via propensity score matching based on logistic regression and an approximate nearest neighbour approach. The main outcome was cost-effectiveness. Effectiveness was measured as event-free time, and events were defined as myocardial infarction, stroke and death. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios comparing participants with non-participants were calculated for each subgroup. To assess the uncertainty of results, a bootstrapping approach was applied. Results The cost-effectiveness of KardioPro in the group at high risk of CHD was €20,901 per event-free year; in the medium-risk group, €52,323 per event-free year; in the low-risk group, €186,074 per event-free year; and in the group with known CHD, €26,456 per event-free year. KardioPro was associated with a significant health gain but also a significant cost increase. However, statistical significance could not be shown for all subgroups. Conclusion The cost-effectiveness of KardioPro differs substantially according to the group being targeted. Depending on the willingness-to-pay, it may be reasonable to only offer KardioPro to patients at high risk of further cardiovascular events. This high-risk group could be identified from routine statutory health insurance data. However, the long-term consequences of KardioPro still need to be evaluated. PMID:24938674

The effects of alcohol intoxication on attention and memory for visual scenes.

PubMed

Harvey, Alistair J; Kneller, Wendy; Campbell, Alison C

2013-01-01

This study tests the claim that alcohol intoxication narrows the focus of visual attention on to the more salient features of a visual scene. A group of alcohol intoxicated and sober participants had their eye movements recorded as they encoded a photographic image featuring a central event of either high or low salience. All participants then recalled the details of the image the following day when sober. We sought to determine whether the alcohol group would pay less attention to the peripheral features of the encoded scene than their sober counterparts, whether this effect of attentional narrowing was stronger for the high-salience event than for the low-salience event, and whether it would lead to a corresponding deficit in peripheral recall. Alcohol was found to narrow the focus of foveal attention to the central features of both images but did not facilitate recall from this region. It also reduced the overall amount of information accurately recalled from each scene. These findings demonstrate that the concept of alcohol myopia originally posited to explain the social consequences of intoxication (Steele & Josephs, 1990) may be extended to explain the relative neglect of peripheral information during the processing of visual scenes.

Temporal genetic change in the last remaining population of woolly mammoth

PubMed Central

Nyström, Veronica; Dalén, Love; Vartanyan, Sergey; Lidén, Kerstin; Ryman, Nils; Angerbjörn, Anders

2010-01-01

During the Late Pleistocene, the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) experienced a series of local extinctions generally attributed to human predation or environmental change. Some small and isolated populations did however survive far into the Holocene. Here, we investigated the genetic consequences of the isolation of the last remaining mammoth population on Wrangel Island. We analysed 741 bp of the mitochondrial DNA and found a loss of genetic variation in relation to the isolation event, probably caused by a demographic bottleneck or a founder event. However, in spite of ca 5000 years of isolation, we did not detect any further loss of genetic variation. Together with the relatively high number of mitochondrial haplotypes on Wrangel Island near the final disappearance, this suggests a sudden extinction of a rather stable population. PMID:20356891

The Solar Wind Depletion (SWD) event of 26 April 1999: Triggering of an auroral pseudobreakup event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, X.; Tsurutani, B.; Gonzalez, W.

2000-01-01

The interplanetary solar wind depletion (SWD) event of 26 April 1999 and its magnetospheric consequences are examined. The SWD event is characterized by a solar wind density decrease from [similar to] 3.0 to 0.7 cm(sup -3) leading to a solar wind ram pressure decrease from [similar to] 2.0 to 0.2 nPa. This SWD onset is followed by a dipolarization of nightside magnetospheric fields.

Some limitations of frequency as a component of risk: an expository note.

PubMed

Cox, Louis Anthony

2009-02-01

Students of risk analysis are often taught that "risk is frequency times consequence" or, more generally, that risk is determined by the frequency and severity of adverse consequences. But is it? This expository note reviews the concepts of frequency as average annual occurrence rate and as the reciprocal of mean time to failure (MTTF) or mean time between failures (MTBF) in a renewal process. It points out that if two risks (represented as two (frequency, severity) pairs for adverse consequences) have identical values for severity but different values of frequency, then it is not necessarily true that the one with the smaller value of frequency is preferable-and this is true no matter how frequency is defined. In general, there is not necessarily an increasing relation between the reciprocal of the mean time until an event occurs, its long-run average occurrences per year, and other criteria, such as the probability or expected number of times that it will happen over a specific interval of interest, such as the design life of a system. Risk depends on more than frequency and severity of consequences. It also depends on other information about the probability distribution for the time of a risk event that can become lost in simple measures of event "frequency." More flexible descriptions of risky processes, such as point process models can avoid these limitations.

When an event sparks behavior change: an introduction to the sentinel event method of dynamic model building and its application to emergency medicine.

PubMed

Boudreaux, Edwin D; Bock, Beth; O'Hea, Erin

2012-03-01

Experiencing a negative consequence related to one's health behavior, like a medical problem leading to an emergency department (ED) visit, can promote behavior change, giving rise to the popular concept of the "teachable moment." However, the mechanisms of action underlying this process of change have received scant attention. In particular, most existing health behavior theories are limited in explaining why such events can inspire short-term change in some and long-term change in others. Expanding on recommendations published in the 2009 Academic Emergency Medicine consensus conference on public health in emergency medicine (EM), we propose a new method for developing conceptual models that explain how negative events, like medical emergencies, influence behavior change, called the Sentinel Event Method. The method itself is atheoretical; instead, it defines steps to guide investigations that seek to relate specific consequences or events to specific health behaviors. This method can be used to adapt existing health behavior theories to study the event-behavior change relationship or to guide formulation of completely new conceptual models. This paper presents the tenets underlying the Sentinel Event Method, describes the steps comprising the process, and illustrates its application to EM through an example of a cardiac-related ED visit and tobacco use. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

Simulating Heinrich events in a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice sheet model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Ziemen, Florian

2016-04-01

Heinrich events are among the most prominent events of long-term climate variability recorded in proxies across the northern hemisphere. They are the archetype of ice sheet - climate interactions on millennial time scales. Nevertheless, the exact mechanisms that cause Heinrich events are still under discussion, and their climatic consequences are far from being fully understood. We contribute to answering the open questions by studying Heinrich events in a coupled ice sheet model (ISM) atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM) framework, where this variability occurs as part of the model generated internal variability without the need to prescribe external perturbations, as was the standard approach in almost all model studies so far. The setup consists of a northern hemisphere setup of the modified Parallel Ice Sheet Model (mPISM) coupled to the global coarse resolution AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ. The simulations used for this analysis were an ensemble covering substantial parts of the late Glacial forced with transient insolation and prescribed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The modeled Heinrich events show a marked influence of the ice discharge on the Atlantic circulation and heat transport, but none of the Heinrich events during the Glacial did show a complete collapse of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The simulated main consequences of the Heinrich events are a freshening and cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying over northern Europe.

Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

2010-05-01

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on quantitative risk analysis were developed. Strategies based on the use of multiple information layers aiming at the identification of mitigation and early warning systems were also explored. A case-study in the Emilia-Romagna region is presented.

Indirect economic impact of landslide hazards by disruption to national road transportation networks; Scotland, United Kingdom.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postance, Benjamin; Hillier, John; Dijkstra, Tom; Dixon, Neil

2016-04-01

The failure of engineered or natural slopes which support or are adjacent to transportation systems often inflicts costly direct physical damage and indirect system disruption. The consequences and severity of indirect impacts vary according to which links, nodes or network facilities are physically disrupted. Moreover, it is often the case that multiple slope failure disruptions are triggered simultaneously following prolonged or intense precipitation events due to a degree of local homogeneity of slope characteristics and materials. This study investigates the application of national commuter statistics and network agent simulation to evaluate indirect impacts of landslide events disrupting the Scottish trunk road transportation network (UK). Previous studies often employ shortest pathway analysis whereas agent simulation has received relatively little attention. British Geological Survey GeoSure landslide susceptibility data is used to select 35 susceptible trunk road segments by means of neighbouring total area at risk. For each of the candidate 35 segments the network and zonal variation in travel time is calculated for a single day of disruption, economic impact is approximated using established governmental and industry transport planning and appraisal values. The results highlight that a number of trunk road segments incur indirect economic losses in the order of tens of thousands of pounds for each day of closure. Calculated losses at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful are 50% greater than previous estimates at £75 thousand per day of closure. Also highlighted are events in which economic impact is relatively minor, yet concentrating on particular communities that can become substantially isolated as a consequence of a single event. The findings of this study are of interest and support wider investigations exploring cost considerations for decision makers and mitigation strategies, in addition to identifying network topological and demand indicators conducive to high indirect economic cost events.

Signals of El Niño Modoki in the tropical tropopause layer and stratosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, F.; Li, J.; Tian, W.; Feng, J.; Huo, Y.

2012-06-01

The effects of El Niño Modoki events on the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) and on the stratosphere were investigated using European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalysis data, oceanic El Niño indices, and general climate model outputs. El Niño Modoki events tend to depress convective activities in the western and eastern Pacific but enhance convective activities in the central and northern Pacific. Consequently, during El Niño Modoki events, negative water vapor anomalies occur in the western and eastern Pacific upper troposphere, whereas there are positive anomalies in the central and northern Pacific upper troposphere. The spatial patterns of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies exhibit a tripolar form. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the OLR and upper tropospheric water vapor anomalies reveals that canonical El Niño events are associated with the leading mode of the EOF, while El Niño Modoki events correspond to the second mode. The composite analysis based on ERA-interim data indicate that El Niño Modoki events have a reverse effect on middle-high latitudes stratosphere, as compared with the effect of typical El Niño events, i.e., the northern polar vortex is stronger and colder but the southern polar vortex is weaker and warmer during El Niño Modoki events. According to the simulation' results, we found that the reverse effect on the middle-high latitudes stratosphere is resulted from a complicated interaction between quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal of east phase and El Niño Modoki signal. This interaction is not a simply linear overlay of QBO signal and El Niño Modoki signal in the stratosphere, it is El Niño Modoki that leads to different tropospheric zonal wind anomalies with QBO forcing from that caused by typical El Niño, thus, the planetary wave propagation from troposphere to the stratosphere during El Niño Modoki events is different from that during canonical El Niño events. However, when QBO is in its west phase, El Niño Modoki events have the same effect on middle-high latitudes stratosphere as the typical El Niño events. Our simulations also suggest that canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki activities actually have the same influence on the middle-high latitudes stratosphere when in the absence of QBO forcing.

[Medical consequences of drinking water pollution resulting from a chemical accident].

PubMed

Bulatova, F D; Teregulova, Z S

1992-01-01

The article describes consequences of the chemical accident in Ufa, lead to the drinkable water pollution by phenol and chlorophenolic compounds. Events required the prompt prophylactic measures and reconstruction of health care in the city. The treatment tactics approved at that period of time are represented.

An Example of Employment Service Adjustment Counseling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mallary, N. D., Jr.; Conner, Beverly H.

1975-01-01

This article traces one client's progress from chronic unemployability to vocational stability through the use of rational emotive therapy (RET). The authors explain the causality among activating events, belief systems, and emotional consequences. The client is helped toward a view of self-responsibility in determining his own consequences.…

High energy cosmic ray signature of quark nuggets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Audouze, J.; Schaeffer, R.; Silk, J.

1985-01-01

It has been recently proposed that dark matter in the Universe might consist of nuggets of quarks which populate the nuclear desert between nucleons and neutron star matter. It is further suggested that the Centauro events which could be the signature of particles with atomic mass A approx. 100 and energy E approx. 10 to 15th power eV might also be related to debris produced in the encounter of two neutron stars. A further consequence of the former proposal is examined, and it is shown that the production of relativistic quark nuggets is accompanied by a substantial flux of potentially observable high energy neutrinos.

Lessons from the domestic Ebola response: Improving health care system resilience to high consequence infectious diseases.

PubMed

Meyer, Diane; Kirk Sell, Tara; Schoch-Spana, Monica; Shearer, Matthew P; Chandler, Hannah; Thomas, Erin; Rose, Dale A; Carbone, Eric G; Toner, Eric

2018-05-01

The domestic response to the West Africa Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic from 2014-2016 provides a unique opportunity to distill lessons learned about health sector planning and operations from those individuals directly involved. This research project aimed to identify and integrate these lessons into an actionable checklist that can improve health sector resilience to future high-consequence infectious disease (HCID) events. Interviews (N = 73) were completed with individuals involved in the domestic EVD response in 4 cities (Atlanta, Dallas, New York, and Omaha), and included individuals who worked in academia, emergency management, government, health care, law, media, and public health during the response. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed qualitatively. Two focus groups were then conducted to expand on themes identified in the interviews. Using these themes, an evidence-informed checklist was developed and vetted for completeness and feasibility by an expert advisory group. Salient themes identified included health care facility issues-specifically identifying assessment and treatment hospitals, isolation and treatment unit layout, waste management, community relations, patient identification, patient isolation, limitations on treatment, laboratories, and research considerations-and health care workforce issues-specifically psychosocial impact, unit staffing, staff training, and proper personal protective equipment. The experiences of those involved in the domestic Ebola response provide critical lessons that can help strengthen resilience of health care systems and improve future responses to HCID events. Copyright © 2018 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms and microevolutionary consequences of social homogamy in a 19th-century Italian community.

PubMed

Manfredini, Matteo

2009-02-01

Abstract Choosing a spouse has always been an event subjected to strong social control. Consideration of socioprofessional elements is therefore necessary for an in-depth understanding of the microevolutionary consequences of marriage. Thus in this paper I explore the extent and causes of reproduction isolation between different socioprofessional groups of a 19th-century Italian community, Casalguidi. Various features of mate choice pattern were investigated by means of individual-level data. The results show that Casalguidi was a community with strong socioeconomic internal boundaries, in which social belonging mattered much more than geographic provenience. The bourgeoisie showed such a high degree of social homogamy that it was almost reproductively isolated. Much more openness and less isolation was found between the two categories of farm laborers and sharecroppers, and day laborers.

Use of proton pump inhibitors for the provision of stress ulcer prophylaxis: clinical and economic consequences.

PubMed

Barletta, Jeffrey F; Sclar, David A

2014-01-01

The provision of stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) for the prevention of clinically significant bleeding is widely recognized as a crucial component of care in critically ill patients. Nevertheless, SUP is often provided to non-critically ill patients despite a risk for clinically significant bleeding of roughly 0.1 %. The overuse of SUP therefore introduces added risks for adverse drug events and cost, with minimal expected benefit in clinical outcome. Historically, histamine-2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) have been the preferred agent for SUP; however, recent data have revealed proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) as the most common modality (76 %). There are no high quality randomized controlled trials demonstrating superiority with PPIs compared with H2RAs for the prevention of clinically significant bleeding associated with stress ulcers. In contrast, PPIs have recently been linked to several adverse effects including Clostridium difficile diarrhea and pneumonia. These complications have substantial economic consequences and have a marked impact on the overall cost effectiveness of PPI therapy. Nevertheless, PPI use remains widespread in patients who are at both high and low risk for clinically significant bleeding. This article will describe the utilization of PPIs for SUP and present the clinical and economic consequences linked to their use/overuse.

Exploring culture: audience predispositions and consequent effects on audience behavior in a mass-gathering setting.

PubMed

Hutton, Alison; Brown, Steve; Verdonk, Naomi

2013-06-01

The purpose of this critical review is to look at the current literature regarding mass gatherings and to create further understanding of this area with a particular focus on what the audience brings with them to the event, particularly in a planned event with a cultural theme or focus. Through an understanding of these predispositions and consequent effects on audience behavior in a mass-gathering setting, a more complete understanding of motivation factors of crowds and audiences can also be found. A critical review of mass-gathering literature was undertaken by searching various online academic databases. Peer-reviewed scholarly articles relevant to the cultural aspects associated with religious, sporting and music mass gatherings were also analyzed. Results from the review show that the word "culture" is often used to explain what happens at the event without reflecting how the motivations or behaviors of audiences at an event are influenced by the cultural predispositions of the audience. By understanding the cultural predispositions of the audience, event planners and designers, event risk managers and event safety personnel are able to better understand the motivation of the audience and how this might impact on audience behavior at the event. Further work needs to be done, however, to investigate the broader range of predispositions. The ultimate aim of developing this understanding is to better inform the health promotion and public health messages that can be developed for a particular type of event based on the likely composition of the audience in attendance.

Improving the Nation's Resilience to Disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutter, Susan L.; Zoback, Mary Lou

2013-02-01

A recent report by the U.S. National Research Council (NRC) [2012] argues that increasing the nation's resilience to hazards and disasters is a "national imperative." Escalating disaster losses and the increasing frequency of billion-dollar loss events such as Hurricane Sandy portend an unsustainable future—one that the nation can ill afford. Disaster losses are occurring at a time of record unemployment, national debt, increasing disparities between the rich and poor, and major population shifts to coastal and other hazardous environments. Environmental degradation of many of the natural defenses against floods, storm surge, and wildfires continues unabated. The result is that routine events begin to have extreme consequences, and climate change may cause such events to become more intense, with even greater impacts and graver consequences than we have seen up to now [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2012].

Adverse life events and delinquent behavior among Kenyan adolescents: a cross-sectional study on the protective role of parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem.

PubMed

Kabiru, Caroline W; Elung'ata, Patricia; Mojola, Sanyu A; Beguy, Donatien

2014-01-01

Past research provides strong evidence that adverse life events heighten the risk of delinquent behavior among adolescents. Urban informal (slum) settlements in sub-Saharan Africa are marked by extreme adversity. However, the prevalence and consequences of adverse life events as well as protective factors that can mitigate the effects of exposure to these events in slum settlements is largely understudied. We examine two research questions. First, are adverse life events experienced at the individual and household level associated with a higher likelihood of delinquent behavior among adolescents living in two slums in Nairobi, Kenya? Second, are parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem protective against delinquency in a context of high adversity? We used cross-sectional data from 3,064 males and females aged 12-19 years who participated in the Transitions to Adulthood Study. We examined the extent to which a composite index of adverse life events was associated with delinquent behavior (measured using a composite index derived from nine items). We also examined the direct and moderating effects of three protective factors: parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem. Fifty-four percent of adolescents reported at least one adverse life event, while 18% reported three or more adverse events. For both males and females, adversity was positively and significantly associated with delinquency in bivariate and multivariate models. Negative associations were observed between the protective factors and delinquency. Significant adverse events × protective factor interaction terms were observed for parental monitoring (females and males), religiosity (males), and self-esteem (females). Similar to research in high income countries, adverse life events are associated with an increased likelihood of delinquent behavior among adolescents living in urban slums in Kenya, a low-income country. However, parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem may moderate the effect of adversity on delinquent behavior and pinpoint possible avenues to develop interventions to reduce delinquency in resource-poor settings in low and middle income countries.

Using Rapid-Response Scenario-Building Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, K. A.; Stoepler, T. M.; Schuster, R.

2015-12-01

Rapid-response scenario-building methodology can be modified to develop scenarios for slow-onset disasters associated with climate change such as drought. Results of a collaboration between the Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) and the Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project are presented in which SSG scenario-building methods were revised and applied to climate change adaptation planning in Colorado's Gunnison Basin, United States. The SSG provides the DOI with the capacity to rapidly assemble multidisciplinary teams of experts to develop scenarios of the potential environmental, social, and economic cascading consequences of environmental crises, and to analyze these chains to determine actionable intervention points. By design, the SSG responds to acute events of a relatively defined duration. As a capacity-building exercise, the SSG explored how its scenario-building methodology could be applied to outlining the cascading consequences of slow-onset events related to climate change. SSG staff facilitated two workshops to analyze the impacts of drought, wildfire, and insect outbreak in the sagebrush and spruce-fir ecosystems. Participants included local land managers, natural and social scientists, ranchers, and other stakeholders. Key findings were: 1) scenario framing must be adjusted to accommodate the multiple, synergistic components and longer time frames of slow-onset events; 2) the development of slow-onset event scenarios is likely influenced by participants having had more time to consider potential consequences, relative to acute events; 3) participants who are from the affected area may have a more vested interest in the outcome and/or may be able to directly implement interventions.

A model independent search for new physics in final states containing leptons at the DO experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piper, Joel M.

The standard model is known to be the low energy limit of a more general theory. Several consequences of the standard model point to a strong probability of new physics becoming experimentally visible in high energy collisions of a few TeV, resulting in high momentum objects. The specific signatures of these collisions are topics of much debate. Rather than choosing a specific signature, this analysis broadly searches the data, preferring breadth over sensitivity. In searching for new physics, several different approaches are used. These include the comparison of data with standard model background expectation in overall number of events, comparisons of distributions of many kinematic variables, and finally comparisons on the tails of distributions that sum the momenta of the objects in an event. With 1.07 fb-1 at the DO experiment, we find no evidence of physics beyond the standard model. Several discrepancies from the standard model were found, but none of these provide a compelling case for new physics.

A Y-chromosome STR marker should be added to commercial multiplex STR kits.

PubMed

Oz, Carla; Zaken, Neomi; Amiel, Merav; Zamir, Ashira

2008-07-01

Autosomal short tandem repeat (STR) analysis has become highly relevant in the identification of victims from mass disasters and terrorist attacks. In such events, gender misidentification can be of grave consequences, yet the list reporting amelogenin amplification failure using STR multiplex kits continues to grow. Presented here are three such examples. In the first case, we present two male suspects who demonstrated amelogenin Y-deficient results using two commercial kit procedures. The presence of their Y chromosomes was proven by obtaining a Y-haplotype. The second case demonstrated a profile from a third male suspect where only the Y homolog of the XY pair was amplified. In events such as mass disasters or terrorist attacks, timely and reliable high throughput DNA typing results are essential. As the number of reported cases of amplification failure at the amelogenin gene continues to grow, we suggest that the incorporation of a better gender identification tool in commercial kits is crucial.

The Dynamic Behaviour and Shock Recovery of a Porcine Skeletal Muscle Tissue

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilgeroth, James; Hazell, Paul; Appleby-Thomas, Gareth

2011-06-01

Modern-day ballistic armours provide a high degree of protection to the individual. However, the effects of non-penetrating projectiles, blast, and high-energy blunt impact events may still cause severe tissue trauma/remote injury. The energies corresponding to such events allow for the formation and transmission of shock waves within body tissues. Consequently, the nature of trauma inflicted upon such soft tissues is likely to be intimately linked to their interaction with the shock waves that propagate through them. Notably, relatively little is known about the effect of shock upon the structure of biological materials, such as skeletal muscle tissue. In this study plate-impact experiments have been used to interrogate the dynamic response of a porcine skeletal muscle tissue under one-dimensional shock loading conditions. Additionally, development of a soft-capture system that has allowed recovery of shocked skeletal muscle tissue specimens is discussed and comparison made between experimental diagnostics and hydrocode simulations of the experiment.

SurgeWatch: a user-friendly database of coastal flooding in the United Kingdom from 1915-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, Matthew; Haigh, Ivan; Nicholls, Robert J.; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Gallop, Shari; Brown, Jennifer; Horsburgh, Kevin; Bradshaw, Elizabeth

2016-04-01

Coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels can be devastating, with long-lasting and diverse consequences. Historically, the UK has suffered major flooding events, and at present 2.5 million properties and £150 billion of assets are potentially exposed to coastal flooding. However, no formal system is in place to catalogue which storms and high sea level events progress to coastal flooding. Furthermore, information on the extent of flooding and associated damages is not systematically documented nationwide. Here we present a database and online tool called 'SurgeWatch', which provides a systematic UK-wide record of high sea level and coastal flood events over the last 100 years (1915-2014). Using records from the National Tide Gauge Network, with a dataset of exceedance probabilities and meteorological fields, SurgeWatch captures information of 96 storms during this period, the highest sea levels they produced, and the occurrence and severity of coastal flooding. The data are presented to be easily assessable and understandable to a range of users including, scientists, coastal engineers, managers and planners and concerned citizens. We also focus on some significant events in the database, such as the North Sea storm surge of 31 January-1 February 1953 (Northwest Europe's most severe coastal floods in living memory) and the 5-6 December 2013 "Xaver" Storm and floods.

Image Analysis Algorithms for Immunohistochemical Assessment of Cell Death Events and Fibrosis in Tissue Sections

PubMed Central

Krajewska, Maryla; Smith, Layton H.; Rong, Juan; Huang, Xianshu; Hyer, Marc L.; Zeps, Nikolajs; Iacopetta, Barry; Linke, Steven P.; Olson, Allen H.; Reed, John C.; Krajewski, Stan

2009-01-01

Cell death is of broad physiological and pathological importance, making quantification of biochemical events associated with cell demise a high priority for experimental pathology. Fibrosis is a common consequence of tissue injury involving necrotic cell death. Using tissue specimens from experimental mouse models of traumatic brain injury, cardiac fibrosis, and cancer, as well as human tumor specimens assembled in tissue microarray (TMA) format, we undertook computer-assisted quantification of specific immunohistochemical and histological parameters that characterize processes associated with cell death. In this study, we demonstrated the utility of image analysis algorithms for color deconvolution, colocalization, and nuclear morphometry to characterize cell death events in tissue specimens: (a) subjected to immunostaining for detecting cleaved caspase-3, cleaved poly(ADP-ribose)-polymerase, cleaved lamin-A, phosphorylated histone H2AX, and Bcl-2; (b) analyzed by terminal deoxyribonucleotidyl transferase–mediated dUTP nick end labeling assay to detect DNA fragmentation; and (c) evaluated with Masson's trichrome staining. We developed novel algorithm-based scoring methods and validated them using TMAs as a high-throughput format. The proposed computer-assisted scoring methods for digital images by brightfield microscopy permit linear quantification of immunohistochemical and histochemical stainings. Examples are provided of digital image analysis performed in automated or semiautomated fashion for successful quantification of molecular events associated with cell death in tissue sections. (J Histochem Cytochem 57:649–663, 2009) PMID:19289554

Risk Analysis in Support of the Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program. Volume 1. Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-17

Analysis of Event Probability A-14 A.4.2 Analysis of Event Consequence A-14 A.4.2.1 Agent Release to Atmosphere A-14 A.4.2.2 Toxic P-lume Size A-16 A...Disposal Program (CSDP), which comprises several alternatives for carrying out the disposal effort (U.S. Army Toxic and Hazardous Materials Agency, 1986...or unavoidable accident or event could occur that would expose a nearby civilian population to these toxic chemicals. Such events could occur even

Sexual and Non-Sexual Trauma, Depression and Self-Esteem in a Sample of Polish Women. A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Kucharska, Justyna

2017-01-01

The purpose of this research was to explore the issue of the psychological aftermaths of traumatic events in women. According to the existing body of evidence, women suffer more often than men from mental health problems as a result of a traumatic event-one of the explanations for this is that women experience sexual trauma more frequently and this type of trauma causes more severe negative consequences. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to compare the aftermaths of sexual and non-sexual traumatic events in women. Only traumatic events in adulthood were taken into consideration and were divided into two categories: recent events (previous two years) and those of an earlier occurrence. Depression and low level of self-esteem were included in the research model as possible consequences of traumatic events. A total of 273 women from Poland took part in a questionnaire survey. As hypothesized, in the case of recent events, participants who experienced a sexual trauma showed a higher level of depression and lower level of self-esteem compared with those subjects, who experienced a non-sexual trauma or did not experience a traumatic event at all. However, this effect was not observed in the case of events of earlier occurrence. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Relations between traumatic experiences and the level of depression and self-esteem in women were demonstrated. Women who experienced sexual trauma showed higher levels of depression and lower levels of self-esteem than women who experienced other types of trauma. Time of the occurrence of the traumatic events matters: the relations between traumatic events, depression and self-esteem were demonstrated in the case of the events that occurred within the last two years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Treatment of type 2 diabetes with saxagliptin: a pharmacoeconomic evaluation in Argentina.

PubMed

Elgart, Jorge F; Caporale, Joaquin E; Gonzalez, Lorena; Aiello, Eleonora; Waschbusch, Maximiliano; Gagliardino, Juan J

2013-04-27

The increasing prevalence of diabetes and its inadequate management results in a heavy burden of the disease for the patients, the health and the productive system and the overall community. Consequently, it is necessary to have new effective drugs to treat people with diabetes to decrease such burden. DPP-4 inhibitors can help to cope with this demand, but its usage is challenged by its apparent high cost. The aim of the current study was to compare a simulated cost-effectiveness ratio of metformin (MET) plus one drug of the DPP-4 inhibitors family, saxagliptin (SAXA) or sulfonylurea (SU) treatment during a 20-year period, from the perspective of the social security system, in a cohort of people with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) who did not attain glycosylated hemoglobin treatment target values only with MET. A discrete event simulation model (Cardiff diabetes model) based on UKPDS 68 was used to simulate disease progression and to estimate the economic and health treatment consequences in people with T2DM. The clinical efficacy parameters for SAXA administration were obtained from the literature; local standard costs were considered for drug acquisition, adverse events (AEs), and micro/macrovascular complications. Costs were expressed in US dollars (2009) with an annual 3.5% discount and a 20-year time horizon. The SAXA + MET treated group had a lower number of non-fatal events than the SU + MET treated group. The model also predicted a lower number of fatal macrovascular events for the SAXA + MET group (149.6 vs. 152.8). The total cost of the SAXA + MET cohort was 15% higher than that of the SU + MET cohort. Treatment with SAXA + MET resulted in a higher number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (9.54 vs. 9.32) and life-years gained (LYGs) (20.84 vs. 20.76) compared to those treated with SU + MET. The incremental cost per QALY and LYG gained was $7,374 and $20,490, respectively. According to the criteria proposed by the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the use of the combination SAXA + MET is highly cost-effective in Argentina.

Treatment of type 2 diabetes with saxagliptin: a pharmacoeconomic evaluation in Argentina

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The increasing prevalence of diabetes and its inadequate management results in a heavy burden of the disease for the patients, the health and the productive system and the overall community. Consequently, it is necessary to have new effective drugs to treat people with diabetes to decrease such burden. DPP-4 inhibitors can help to cope with this demand, but its usage is challenged by its apparent high cost. The aim of the current study was to compare a simulated cost-effectiveness ratio of metformin (MET) plus one drug of the DPP-4 inhibitors family, saxagliptin (SAXA) or sulfonylurea (SU) treatment during a 20-year period, from the perspective of the social security system, in a cohort of people with Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) who did not attain glycosylated hemoglobin treatment target values only with MET. Methods A discrete event simulation model (Cardiff diabetes model) based on UKPDS 68 was used to simulate disease progression and to estimate the economic and health treatment consequences in people with T2DM. The clinical efficacy parameters for SAXA administration were obtained from the literature; local standard costs were considered for drug acquisition, adverse events (AEs), and micro/macrovascular complications. Costs were expressed in US dollars (2009) with an annual 3.5% discount and a 20-year time horizon. Results The SAXA + MET treated group had a lower number of non-fatal events than the SU + MET treated group. The model also predicted a lower number of fatal macrovascular events for the SAXA + MET group (149.6 vs. 152.8). The total cost of the SAXA + MET cohort was 15% higher than that of the SU + MET cohort. Treatment with SAXA + MET resulted in a higher number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) (9.54 vs. 9.32) and life-years gained (LYGs) (20.84 vs. 20.76) compared to those treated with SU + MET. The incremental cost per QALY and LYG gained was $7,374 and $20,490, respectively. Conclusions According to the criteria proposed by the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, the use of the combination SAXA + MET is highly cost-effective in Argentina. PMID:23621944

Family perceptions of insulin pump adverse events in children and adolescents.

PubMed

Wheeler, Benjamin J; Donaghue, Kim C; Heels, Kristine; Ambler, Geoffrey R

2014-04-01

Insulin pumps (for continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion [CSII]) are used widely in type 1 diabetes mellitus. Although there has been considerable study of outcomes, there are few recent data on CSII-associated adverse events and no data on family perceptions of adverse events and their confidence in dealing with them. We approached all families of children and adolescents ≤ 19 years of age on CSII attending the diabetes clinic over a 16-week clinic cycle. Participants completed a retrospective questionnaire examining issues over the previous 12 months. Data on pump adverse events as well as answers to questions pertaining to education and confidence were collected. Our survey received a response rate of 99%, with 235 of the 238 families approached participating. In the preceding 12 months, 104 of 230 (45%) had reported at least one pump-related adverse event (either mechanical or set-related), with an associated 52 of 229 (23%) resulting in pump replacement. This equated to a minimum incidence density of 53 adverse events/100 person-years. Additionally, 18 of 230 (8%) reported a hospital admission or emergency department attendance as a consequence. Pump malfunction and infusion set/site failures were the most common events reported, with one or more events in 58 of 104 (56%) and 47 of 104 (45%), respectively. Adverse events, excluding set/site failures, were associated with older age (13.1 ± 3.4 years vs. 11.9 ± 4 years; P = 0.02). This is the first study to look at family perceptions of adverse events while using modern CSII. It highlights a high self-reported rate of CSII-related adverse events, pump replacement, and subsequent presentation to the hospital. Potential areas for additional targeted education are identified. Further prospective study examining pump adverse event characteristics and incidence is warranted.

How community organizations moderate the effect of armed conflict on migration in Nepal

PubMed Central

Williams, Nathalie E.

2013-01-01

This article describes an analytical study of systematic micro-level variability in migration during conflict. The study is based on a multi-dimensional model of individual out-migration that examines the economic, social, and political consequences of conflict and how community organizations condition the experience of these consequences and systematically alter migration patterns. A unique combination of detailed data on violent events and individual behaviours during the Maoist insurrection in Nepal and multi-level event-history models were used to empirically test the model. Results indicate that community organizations dampened the effect of conflict on out-migration by providing resources that helped people to cope with the danger as well as economic, social and political consequences of conflict. This evidence suggests a systematic redistribution of population, partially contingent upon specific resources available in each community, which will likely affect the socio-demographic context of post-conflict Nepal into the future. PMID:23356735

College Drinking Games and Observed Consequences.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, Ian M.; Crawford, Janet K.

A study was done to examine the role of college student drinking games, the consequences of playing drinking games, and the motivational nuances involved in playing these games. A typology of drinking games is presented; it includes five categories: (1) consumption games (who can consume the most alcohol during a given event); (2) skill games (the…

Identifying evidence of climate change impact on extreme events in permeable chalk catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. P.; Nubert, S.

2009-12-01

The permeable chalk catchments of southern England are vital for the economy and well being of the UK. Not only important as a water resource, their freely draining soils support intensive agricultural production, and the rolling downs and chalk streams provide important habitants for many protected plant and animal species. Consequently, there are concerns about the potential impact of climate change on such catchments, particularly in relation to groundwater recharge. Of major concern are possible changes in extreme events, such as groundwater floods and droughts, as any increase in the frequency and/or severity of these has important consequences for water resources, ecological systems and local infrastructure. Studies of climate change impact on extreme events for such catchments have indicated that, under medium and high emissions scenarios, droughts are likely to become more severe whilst floods less so. However, given the uncertainties in such predictions and the inherent variability in historic data, producing definitive evidence of changes in flood/drought frequency/severity poses a significant challenge. Thus, there is a need for specific extreme event statistics that can be used as indicators of actual climate change in streamflow and groundwater level observations. Identifying such indicators that are sufficiently robust requires catchments with long historic time series data. One such catchment is the River Lavant, an intermittent chalk stream in West Sussex, UK. Located within this catchment is Chilgrove House, the site of the UK’s longest groundwater monitoring well (with a continuous record of water level observations of varying frequency dating back to 1836). Using a variety of meteorological datasets, the behaviour of the catchment has been modelled, from 1855 to present, using a 'leaky aquifer' conceptual model. Model calibration was based on observed daily streamflow, at a gauging station just outside the town of Chichester, from 1970. Long-term performance was assessed using groundwater levels at various long period observation wells, including Chilgrove. Extreme event analyses (annual maximum daily flow, annual minimum groundwater level) based on historic model runs, looking at successive 30 year time periods, show high variability in the values of extreme events, However, there is far less (by an order of magnitude) variation in more frequent (i.e. less extreme) events with a recurrence interval of around 0.6 (i.e. a return period of around 1.67 years). Simulations of climate change impact for 2020 emission scenarios using UKCIP02 data give 0.6 recurrence estimates that are significantly different (at the 1% confidence level) than those obtained from historic data, which is not the case for more extreme events. It is proposed that, at least for such permeable catchments, deviations from historic values of this relatively frequent recurrence interval provide a more robust indicator for detecting evidence of climate change than focusing on much rarer, albeit more dramatic, events.

Estimating regional long-term economic consequences of natural hazards - a case study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol (Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfurtscheller, C.; Lochner, B.; Brucker, A.

2012-04-01

The interaction of relief-driven alpine natural processes with the anthropogenic sphere often leads to natural disasters which significantly impact on remote alpine economies. When evaluating the effects of such events for future risk prevention strategies, it is essential to assess indirect losses. While the economic measurement of direct effects - the physical impact on structures and infrastructure - seems fairly manageable, less is known about the dimensions of indirect effects, especially on a local and regional scale within the Alps. The lack of standardized terminology, empirical data and methods to estimate indirect economic effects currently hampers profound decision support. In our study of the 2005 flood event in Tyrol, we surveyed companies from all sectors of the economy to identify the main drivers of indirect effects and interrupted economic flows. In collaboration with the Federal State administration, we extrapolate the total regional economic effects of this catastrophic event. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, we established and analysed a data pool of questionnaire and interview results as well as direct loss data. We mainly focus on the decrease in value creation and the negative impacts on tourism. We observed that disrupted traffic networks can have a highly negative impact, especially for the tourism sector in lateral alpine valleys. Within a month, turnover fell by approximately EUR 3.3 million in the investigated area. In the short run (until August 2006), the shortfall in touristic revenues in the Paznaun valley aggregated to approx. EUR 5.3 million. We observed that overnight stays rebound very quickly so that long-term effects are marginal. In addition, we tried to identify possible economical losers as well as winners of severe hazard impacts. In response to such flood events, high investments are made to improve disaster and risk management. Nearly 70% of the respondents specified the (re)construction sector and similar businesses as main beneficiaries and about 40% mentioned infrastructural improvements, as in streets or protective measures, as the most positive effect. We present an empirical approach to assess the economic consequences of fatal events and provide rules of thumb to quickly estimate indirect economic losses from natural disasters, at least for the Alpine Space, at the local and regional level. The methods and results of this study can help to improve ex-post loss estimations, and with it, ex-ante methods for the cost efficiency of risk reduction measures, e.g. cost-benefit-analysis.

Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Wildfire management in the United States and elsewhere is challenged by substantial uncertainty regarding the location and timing of fire events, the socioeconomic and ecological consequences of these events, and the costs of suppression. Escalating U.S. Forest Service suppression expenditures is of particular concern at a time of fiscal austerity as swelling fire...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

10 CFR 72.75 - Reporting requirements for specific events and conditions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... regulatory limits, to prevent exposures to radiation or radioactive materials that could exceed regulatory limits, or to mitigate the consequences of an accident; and (ii) No redundant equipment was available and... waste involved in the event; and (v) Any personnel radiation exposure data. (f) Follow-up notification...

Black Swan Event Assessment for Fort Leonard Wood, Missouri

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

Fort Leonard Wood ERDC/CERL SR-16-1 March 2016 Black Swan Event Assessment for Fort Leonard Wood , Missouri James D. Westervelt Construction ...ER D C/ CE RL S R- 16 -1 Net Zero Planning for Fort Leonard Wood Black Swan Event Assessment for Fort Leonard Wood , Missouri Co ns... Wood ” ERDC/CERL SR-16-1 ii Abstract Emergency preparation typically involves evaluating disaster potential and consequences, followed by

Longitudinal study of appraisal at Three Mile Island: implications for life event research.

PubMed

Goldsteen, R; Schorr, J K; Goldsteen, K S

1989-01-01

This study tests a path model which indicates the occurrence of appraisal following the accident at Three Mile Island (TMI). The model posits a causal relationship between trust in TMI-related authorities, perceived danger, perceived harm to health, and psychological distress. The implications of the findings for life event research are discussed in terms of the etiological significance of meaning, event consequences, and control.

Carbohydrate Dependence During Prolonged, Intense Endurance Exercise.

PubMed

Hawley, John A; Leckey, Jill J

2015-11-01

A major goal of training to improve the performance of prolonged, continuous, endurance events lasting up to 3 h is to promote a range of physiological and metabolic adaptations that permit an athlete to work at both higher absolute and relative power outputs/speeds and delay the onset of fatigue (i.e., a decline in exercise intensity). To meet these goals, competitive endurance athletes undertake a prodigious volume of training, with a large proportion performed at intensities that are close to or faster than race pace and highly dependent on carbohydrate (CHO)-based fuels to sustain rates of muscle energy production [i.e., match rates of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) hydrolysis with rates of resynthesis]. Consequently, to sustain muscle energy reserves and meet the daily demands of training sessions, competitive athletes freely select CHO-rich diets. Despite renewed interest in high-fat, low-CHO diets for endurance sport, fat-rich diets do not improve training capacity or performance, but directly impair rates of muscle glycogenolysis and energy flux, limiting high-intensity ATP production. When highly trained athletes compete in endurance events lasting up to 3 h, CHO-, not fat-based fuels are the predominant fuel for the working muscles and CHO, not fat, availability becomes rate limiting for performance.

Effects of Aging and Adult-Onset Hearing Loss on Cortical Auditory Regions

PubMed Central

Cardin, Velia

2016-01-01

Hearing loss is a common feature in human aging. It has been argued that dysfunctions in central processing are important contributing factors to hearing loss during older age. Aging also has well documented consequences for neural structure and function, but it is not clear how these effects interact with those that arise as a consequence of hearing loss. This paper reviews the effects of aging and adult-onset hearing loss in the structure and function of cortical auditory regions. The evidence reviewed suggests that aging and hearing loss result in atrophy of cortical auditory regions and stronger engagement of networks involved in the detection of salient events, adaptive control and re-allocation of attention. These cortical mechanisms are engaged during listening in effortful conditions in normal hearing individuals. Therefore, as a consequence of aging and hearing loss, all listening becomes effortful and cognitive load is constantly high, reducing the amount of available cognitive resources. This constant effortful listening and reduced cognitive spare capacity could be what accelerates cognitive decline in older adults with hearing loss. PMID:27242405

Ocean chemistry controls trends in foraminiferal mineralogy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Nooijer, Lennart; van Dijk, Inge; Reichart, Gert-Jan

2014-05-01

Foraminifera are unicellular marine protists of which many produce a calcium carbonate shell of either aragonite or calcite. Since they are responsible for a large part of open ocean calcium carbonate precipitation, it is necessary to understand their response to changes in ocean chemistry. On geological time scales, the ratio of Mg over Ca in seawater played an important role in controlling marine aragonite versus calcite mineralogy. Here we reconstructed occurrences of aragonite and low- and high-Mg calcite producing foraminifera through the Phanerozoic. We discovered a two-step impact of seawater chemistry and mass extinction events on the evolution of foraminifera. Seawater Mg to Ca ratios favor production of either calcite, or of high magnesium carbonate and aragonite shells. However, mass extinction events controlled the timing of shifts in dominance from one mineralogy to the other. This observation suggests that ongoing ocean acidification may have important consequences for foraminiferal calcification. Although reduced carbonate saturation state increases dissolution rates of high-Mg calcite and aragonite compared to low-Mg calcite, the current high Mg/Ca of the ocean kinetically favors precipitation of high-Mg calcite and aragonite. Contrary to the differential effects of dissolution, we argue that ongoing ocean acidification is likely to particularly impact calcite producers (e.g. planktonic foraminifera, coccolithophores) compared to those precipitating high-Mg calcite and aragonite (e.g. corals).

Interprofessional communication and teambuilding using applied improvisational exercises.

PubMed

Campbell, Candace

2014-01-01

According to The Joint Commission (TJC), the most frequently cited root cause of sentinel events is ineffective communication or miscommunication (TJC, 2002, 2012). The need to improve communication among health care professionals is a high priority because of the serious consequences of poor communication for everyone involved, on both personal and corporate levels. Applied improvisational exercises (AlEs) comprise a strategy for enhancing interprofessional communication (IPC). This article asks: What are the challenges inherent in IPC and teambuilding in the health care setting, and how can AIE help bridge the communication gap?

Jak2 FERM Domain Interaction with the Erythropoietin Receptor Regulates Jak2 Kinase Activity▿

PubMed Central

Funakoshi-Tago, Megumi; Pelletier, Stéphane; Moritake, Hiroshi; Parganas, Evan; Ihle, James N.

2008-01-01

Janus kinases are essential for signal transduction by a variety of cytokine receptors and when inappropriately activated can cause hematopoietic disorders and oncogenesis. Consequently, it can be predicted that the interaction of the kinases with receptors and the events required for activation are highly controlled. In a screen to identify phosphorylation events regulating Jak2 activity in EpoR signaling, we identified a mutant (Jak2-Y613E) which has the property of being constitutively activated, as well as an inactivating mutation (Y766E). Although no evidence was obtained to indicate that either site is phosphorylated in signaling, the consequences of the Y613E mutation are similar to those observed with recently described activating mutations in Jak2 (Jak2-V617F and Jak2-L611S). However, unlike the V617F or L611S mutant, the Y613E mutant requires the presence of the receptor but not Epo stimulation for activation and downstream signaling. The properties of the Jak2-Y613E mutant suggest that under normal conditions, Jak2 that is not associated with a receptor is locked into an inactive state and receptor binding through the FERM domain relieves steric constraints, allowing the potential to be activated with receptor engagement. PMID:18160720

Impact of political violence on the mental health of school children in Egypt.

PubMed

Moussa, Suaad; Kholy, Monira El; Enaba, Dalia; Salem, Khadiga; Ali, Asmaa; Nasreldin, Mohamed; Gabal, Mohamed; Emadeldin, Maha; Moselhy, Hamdy F

2015-01-01

Since the beginning of the Egyptian political conflict, Tahrir Square has been the epicentre of intense political violence. Students attending schools located near this square witnessed and/or directly experienced the consequences of a series of violent events. This study will investigate the presence of psychiatric symptoms in children attending these schools to explore patterns of responses according to their perceptions of the revolution on their lives, adjusted for, gender and socio-economic status. A descriptive cross-sectional study conducted with 515 Egyptian school children attending government, experimental, and private language schools located within 1 km of Tahrir Square. To assess psychiatric symptoms in these children, a specially designed questionnaire was used to detect, depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and impairments. Children attending schools near Tahrir Square showed high rates of depression, PTSD and anxiety symptoms. The risk factors identified for developing psychiatric symptoms were a negative perception of the effect of the revolution, knowing someone exposed to trauma during the events, female gender and low socio-economic class. These results highlight the need for large-scale studies to explore the consequences of ongoing political violence on children and to establish baseline data on the mental health of Egyptian children.

Using damage data to estimate the risk from summer convective precipitation extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeer, Katharina; Tye, Mari

2017-04-01

This study explores the potential added value from including loss and damage data to understand the risks from high-intensity short-duration convective precipitation events. Projected increases in these events are expected even in regions that are likely to become more arid. Such high intensity precipitation events can trigger hazardous flash floods, debris flows, and landslides that put people and local assets at risk. However, the assessment of local scale precipitation extremes is hampered by its high spatial and temporal variability. In addition to this, not only are extreme events rare, but such small-scale events are likely to be underreported where they do not coincide with the observation network. Reports of private loss and damage on a local administrative unit scale (LAU 2 level) are used to explore the relationship between observed rainfall events and damages reportedly related to hydro-meteorological processes. With 480 Austrian municipalities located within our south-eastern Alpine study region, the damage data are available on a much smaller scale than the available rainfall data. Precipitation is recorded daily at 185 gauges and 52% of these stations additionally deliver sub-hourly rainfall information. To obtain physically plausible information, damage and rainfall data are grouped and analyzed on a catchment scale. The data indicate that rainfall intensities are higher on days that coincide with a damage claim than on days for which no damage was reported. However, approximately one third of the damages related to hydro-meteorological hazards were claimed on days for which no rainfall was recorded at any gauge in the respective catchment. Our goal is to assess whether these events indicate potential extreme events missing in the observations. Damage always is a consequence of an asset being exposed and susceptible to a hazardous process, and naturally, many factors influence whether an extreme rainfall event causes damage. We set up a statistical model to test whether the relationship between extreme rainfall events and damages is robust enough to estimate a potential underrepresentation of high intensity rainfall events in ungauged areas. Risk-relevant factors of socio-economic vulnerability, land cover, streamflow data, and weather type information are included to improve and sharpen the analysis. Within this study, we first aim to identify which rainfall events are most damaging and which factors affect the damages - seen as a proxy for the vulnerability - related to summer convective rainfall extremes in different catchment types. Secondly, we aim to detect potentially unreported damaging rainfall events and estimate the likelihood of such cases. We anticipate this damage perspective on summertime extreme convective precipitation to be beneficial for risk assessment, uncertainty management, and decision making with respect to weather and climate extremes on the regional-to-local level.

Effect of turbulent flow on an atmospheric-pressure AC powered gliding arc discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Chengdong; Gao, Jinlong; Zhu, Jiajian; Ehn, Andreas; Aldén, Marcus; Li, Zhongshan

2018-06-01

A high-power gliding arc (GA) discharge was generated in a turbulent air flow driven by a 35 kHz alternating current electric power supply. The effects of the flow rate on the characteristics of the GA discharge were investigated using combined optical and electrical diagnostics. Phenomenologically, the GA discharge exhibits two types of discharge, i.e., glow type and spark type, depending on the flow rates and input powers. The glow-type discharge, which has peak currents of hundreds of milliamperes, is sustained at low flow rates. The spark-type discharge, which is characterized by a sharp current spike of several amperes with duration of less than 1 μs, occurs more frequently as the flow rate increases. Higher input power can suppress spark-type discharges in moderate turbulence, but this effect becomes weak under high turbulent conditions. Physically, the transition between glow- and spark-type is initiated by the short cutting events and the local re-ignition events. Short cutting events occur owing to the twisting, wrinkling, and stretching of the plasma columns that are governed by the relatively large vortexes in the flow. Local re-ignition events, which are defined as re-ignition along plasma columns, are detected in strong turbulence due to increment of the impedance of the plasma column and consequently the internal electric field strength. It is suggested that the vortexes with length scales smaller than the size of the plasma can penetrate into the plasma column and promote mixing with surroundings to accelerate the energy dissipation. Therefore, the turbulent flow influences the GA discharges by ruling the short cutting events with relatively large vortexes and the local re-ignition events with small vortexes.

Impact and oxidation of single silver nanoparticles at electrode surfaces: one shot versus multiple events† †Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Summary of previous studies; Ag NP characterization: TEM and DLS; event duration histogram; maximum current histogram. See DOI: 10.1039/c6sc04483b Click here for additional data file.

PubMed Central

Kang, Minkyung; Bullions, Erin

2017-01-01

Single nanoparticle (NP) electrochemical impacts is a rapidly expanding field of fundamental electrochemistry, with applications from electrocatalysis to electroanalysis. These studies, which involve monitoring the electrochemical (usually current–time, I–t) response when a NP from solution impacts with a collector electrode, have the scope to provide considerable information on the properties of individual NPs. Taking the widely studied oxidative dissolution of individual silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) as an important example, we present measurements with unprecedented noise (< 5 pA) and time resolution (time constant 100 μs) that are highly revealing of Ag NP dissolution dynamics. Whereas Ag NPs of diameter, d = 10 nm are mostly dissolved in a single event (on the timescale of the measurements), a wide variety of complex processes operate for NPs of larger diameter (d ≥ 20 nm). Detailed quantitative analysis of the I–t features, consumed charge, event duration and impact frequency leads to a major conclusion: Ag NPs undergo sequential partial stripping (oxidative dissolution) events, where a fraction of a NP is electrochemically oxidized, followed by the NP drifting away and back to the tunnelling region before the next partial stripping event. As a consequence, analysis of the charge consumed by single events (so-called “impact coulometry”) cannot be used as a general method to determine the size of colloidal NPs. However, a proper analysis of the I–t responses provides highly valuable information on the transient physicochemical interactions between NPs and polarized surfaces. PMID:28553474

Framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency power grid events to support risk-informed decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2016-06-25

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the security and resilience of the electric power grid. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be difficult, as the statistical basis needed to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence does not exist. Because risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact, low-frequency events (HILFs) ismore » essential. Insights from such a model indicate where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. A risk-informed realization of designing and maintaining a grid resilient to HILFs will demand consideration of a spectrum of hazards/threats to infrastructure integrity, an understanding of their likelihoods of occurrence, treatment of the fragilities of critical assets to the stressors induced by such events, and through modeling grid network topology, the extent of damage associated with these scenarios. The model resulting from integration of these elements will allow sensitivity assessments based on optional risk management strategies, such as alternative pooling, staging and logistic strategies, and emergency contingency planning. This study is focused on the development of an end-to-end HILF risk-assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision-makers across numerous stakeholder groups in directing resources optimally towards the management of risks to operational continuity.« less

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking-sea-ice-ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation.

PubMed

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A; Livina, Valerie

2013-12-03

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70 °N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change.

Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

PubMed Central

Drijfhout, Sybren; Gleeson, Emily; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Livina, Valerie

2013-01-01

Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little Ice Age. The event was simulated in the preindustrial control run of a high-resolution climate model, without imposing external perturbations. Initial cooling started with a period of enhanced atmospheric blocking over the eastern subpolar gyre. In response, a southward progression of the sea-ice margin occurred, and the sea-level pressure anomaly was locked to the sea-ice margin through thermal forcing. The cold-core high steered more cold air to the area, reinforcing the sea-ice concentration anomaly east of Greenland. The sea-ice surplus was carried southward by ocean currents around the tip of Greenland. South of 70°N, sea ice already started melting and the associated freshwater anomaly was carried to the Labrador Sea, shutting off deep convection. There, surface waters were exposed longer to atmospheric cooling and sea surface temperature dropped, causing an even larger thermally forced high above the Labrador Sea. In consequence, east of Greenland, anomalous winds changed from north to south, terminating the event with similar abruptness to its onset. Our results imply that only climate models that possess sufficient resolution to correctly represent atmospheric blocking, in combination with a sensitive sea-ice model, are able to simulate this kind of abrupt climate change. PMID:24248352

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

Geodetic Space Weather Monitoring by means of Ionosphere Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Michael

2017-04-01

The term space weather indicates physical processes and phenomena in space caused by radiation of energy mainly from the Sun. Manifestations of space weather are (1) variations of the Earth's magnetic field, (2) the polar lights in the northern and southern hemisphere, (3) variations within the ionosphere as part of the upper atmosphere characterized by the existence of free electrons and ions, (4) the solar wind, i.e. the permanent emission of electrons and photons, (5) the interplanetary magnetic field, and (6) electric currents, e.g. the van Allen radiation belt. It can be stated that ionosphere disturbances are often caused by so-called solar storms. A solar storm comprises solar events such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) which have different effects on the Earth. Solar flares may cause disturbances in positioning, navigation and communication. CMEs can effect severe disturbances and in extreme cases damages or even destructions of modern infrastructure. Examples are interruptions to satellite services including the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS), communication systems, Earth observation and imaging systems or a potential failure of power networks. Currently the measurements of solar satellite missions such as STEREO and SOHO are used to forecast solar events. Besides these measurements the Earth's ionosphere plays another key role in monitoring the space weather, because it responses to solar storms with an increase of the electron density. Space-geodetic observation techniques, such as terrestrial GNSS, satellite altimetry, space-borne GPS (radio occultation), DORIS and VLBI provide valuable global information about the state of the ionosphere. Additionally geodesy has a long history and large experience in developing and using sophisticated analysis and combination techniques as well as empirical and physical modelling approaches. Consequently, geodesy is predestinated for strongly supporting space weather monitoring via modelling the ionosphere and detecting and forecasting its disturbances. At present a couple of nations, such as the US, UK, Japan, Canada and China, are taken the threats from extreme space weather events seriously and support the development of observing strategies and fundamental research. However, (extreme) space weather events are in all their consequences on the modern highly technologized society, causative global problems which have to be treated globally and not regionally or even nationally. Consequently, space weather monitoring must include (1) all space-geodetic observation techniques and (2) geodetic evaluation methods such as data combination, real-time modelling and forecast. In other words, geodetic space weather monitoring comprises the basic ideas of GGOS and will provide products such as forecasts of severe solar events in order to initiate necessary activities to protect the infrastructure of modern society.

Transcriptome and metabolome of synthetic Solanum autotetraploids reveal key genomic stress events following polyploidization.

PubMed

Fasano, Carlo; Diretto, Gianfranco; Aversano, Riccardo; D'Agostino, Nunzio; Di Matteo, Antonio; Frusciante, Luigi; Giuliano, Giovanni; Carputo, Domenico

2016-06-01

Polyploids are generally classified as autopolyploids, derived from a single species, and allopolyploids, arising from interspecific hybridization. The former represent ideal materials with which to study the consequences of genome doubling and ascertain whether there are molecular and functional rules operating following polyploidization events. To investigate whether the effects of autopolyploidization are common to different species, or if species-specific or stochastic events are prevalent, we performed a comprehensive transcriptomic and metabolomic characterization of diploids and autotetraploids of Solanum commersonii and Solanum bulbocastanum. Autopolyploidization remodelled the transcriptome and the metabolome of both species. In S. commersonii, differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were highly enriched in pericentromeric regions. Most changes were stochastic, suggesting a strong genotypic response. However, a set of robustly regulated transcripts and metabolites was also detected, including purine bases and nucleosides, which are likely to underlie a common response to polyploidization. We hypothesize that autopolyploidization results in nucleotide pool imbalance, which in turn triggers a genomic shock responsible for the stochastic events observed. The more extensive genomic stress and the higher number of stochastic events observed in S. commersonii with respect to S. bulbocastanum could be the result of the higher nucleoside depletion observed in this species. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

Continuous methane record of abrupt climate change 10-68 ka: sighting Heinrich events in the ice core record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, Rachael; Brook, Edward; Chiang, John; Blunier, Thomas; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McConnell, Joseph; Romanini, Daniele; Severinghaus, Jeffrey; Sowers, Todd; Stowasser, Christopher

2014-05-01

The Last Glacial period was punctuated by millennial scale abrupt climate changes - Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events. Controls on the magnitude and frequency of these climate perturbations, and how they may be inter-related, remain unclear. Specific problems include the difficulty of dating Heinrich sediment layers and local bias of key paleoclimate archives. We present a highly detailed and precise record of ice core methane (CH4), a globally integrated signal, which resolves climatic features in unprecedented resolution. Abrupt CH4 increases are resolved in Heinrich Stadials (HS) 1, 2, 4 and 5 where, in contrast to all D-O cycles, there are no concurrent abrupt changes in Greenland temperature. Using modern-day tropical rainfall variability as an analog, we propose that strong cooling in the North Atlantic severely restricted the northerly range of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), leading to an enhanced wet season over Southern Hemisphere tropical land areas, and consequently driving production of excess CH4 in tropical wetlands. Our findings place four Heinrich events firmly within ice core chronologies and suggest maximum durations of 778 to 1606 yr. CH4 anomalies are only associated with Heinrich events of Hudson Strait provenance, indicating that the tropical impacts of Heinrich events were not uniform.

Exploration of use of SenseCam to support autobiographical memory retrieval within a cognitive-behavioural therapeutic intervention following acquired brain injury.

PubMed

Brindley, Rob; Bateman, Andrew; Gracey, Fergus

2011-10-01

Delivering effective psychotherapy to address the significant emotional consequences of acquired brain injury (ABI) is challenged by the presence of acquired cognitive impairments, especially retrieval of detailed autobiographical memories of emotional trigger events. Initial studies using a wearable camera (SenseCam) suggest long-term improvements in autobiographical retrieval of recorded events. In this study a single-case experimental design was implemented to explore the use of SenseCam as a memory aid for a man with a specific anxiety disorder and memory and executive difficulties following ABI. We predicted that SenseCam supported rehearsal of memories of events that trigger high levels of anxiety would yield improved retrieval of both factual detail and internal state information (thoughts and feelings) compared with a conventional psychotherapy aid (automatic thought record sheets, ATRs) and no strategy. The findings indicated SenseCam supported retrieval of anxiety trigger events was superior to ATRs or no strategy in terms of both detail and internal state information, with 94% of the information being recalled in the SenseCam condition, compared to 39% for the "no strategy" and 22% for the ATR conditions. It is concluded that SenseCam may be of use as a compensatory aid in psychotherapies relying on retrieval of emotionally salient trigger events.

Stochastic does not equal ad hoc. [theories of lunar origin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, W. K.

1984-01-01

Some classes of influential events in solar system history are class-predictable but not event-predictable. Theories of lunar origin should not ignore class-predictable stochastic events. Impacts and close encounters with large objects during planet formation are class-predictable. These stochastic events, such as large impacts that triggered ejection of Earth-mantle material into a circum-Earth cloud, should not be rejected as ad hoc. A way to deal with such events scientifically is to investigate their consequences; if it can be shown that they might produce the Moon, they become viable concepts in theories of lunar origin.

OAE: The Ontology of Adverse Events.

PubMed

He, Yongqun; Sarntivijai, Sirarat; Lin, Yu; Xiang, Zuoshuang; Guo, Abra; Zhang, Shelley; Jagannathan, Desikan; Toldo, Luca; Tao, Cui; Smith, Barry

2014-01-01

A medical intervention is a medical procedure or application intended to relieve or prevent illness or injury. Examples of medical interventions include vaccination and drug administration. After a medical intervention, adverse events (AEs) may occur which lie outside the intended consequences of the intervention. The representation and analysis of AEs are critical to the improvement of public health. The Ontology of Adverse Events (OAE), previously named Adverse Event Ontology (AEO), is a community-driven ontology developed to standardize and integrate data relating to AEs arising subsequent to medical interventions, as well as to support computer-assisted reasoning. OAE has over 3,000 terms with unique identifiers, including terms imported from existing ontologies and more than 1,800 OAE-specific terms. In OAE, the term 'adverse event' denotes a pathological bodily process in a patient that occurs after a medical intervention. Causal adverse events are defined by OAE as those events that are causal consequences of a medical intervention. OAE represents various adverse events based on patient anatomic regions and clinical outcomes, including symptoms, signs, and abnormal processes. OAE has been used in the analysis of several different sorts of vaccine and drug adverse event data. For example, using the data extracted from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), OAE was used to analyse vaccine adverse events associated with the administrations of different types of influenza vaccines. OAE has also been used to represent and classify the vaccine adverse events cited in package inserts of FDA-licensed human vaccines in the USA. OAE is a biomedical ontology that logically defines and classifies various adverse events occurring after medical interventions. OAE has successfully been applied in several adverse event studies. The OAE ontological framework provides a platform for systematic representation and analysis of adverse events and of the factors (e.g., vaccinee age) important for determining their clinical outcomes.

Dynamic event tree analysis with the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis code

DOE PAGES

Jankovsky, Zachary K.; Denman, Matthew R.; Aldemir, Tunc

2018-02-02

The consequences of a transient in an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor are difficult to capture with the traditional approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Numerous safety-relevant systems are passive and may have operational states that cannot be represented by binary success or failure. In addition, the specific order and timing of events may be crucial which necessitates the use of dynamic PRA tools such as ADAPT. The modifications to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 sodium-cooled fast reactor safety analysis code for linking it to ADAPT to perform a dynamic PRA are described. A test case is used to demonstrate the linking process andmore » to illustrate the type of insights that may be gained with this process. Finally, newly-developed dynamic importance measures are used to assess the significance of reactor parameters/constituents on calculated consequences of initiating events.« less

Dynamic event tree analysis with the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 safety analysis code

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jankovsky, Zachary K.; Denman, Matthew R.; Aldemir, Tunc

The consequences of a transient in an advanced sodium-cooled fast reactor are difficult to capture with the traditional approach to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Numerous safety-relevant systems are passive and may have operational states that cannot be represented by binary success or failure. In addition, the specific order and timing of events may be crucial which necessitates the use of dynamic PRA tools such as ADAPT. The modifications to the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 sodium-cooled fast reactor safety analysis code for linking it to ADAPT to perform a dynamic PRA are described. A test case is used to demonstrate the linking process andmore » to illustrate the type of insights that may be gained with this process. Finally, newly-developed dynamic importance measures are used to assess the significance of reactor parameters/constituents on calculated consequences of initiating events.« less

Structural integrity and containment aspects of small gas turbine engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, S. S.; Gomuc, R.

1994-03-01

Structural integrity of rotating components in gas turbine engines is very crucial since their failure implies high impact energy, which, if uncontained, could mean damage to aircraft structures, controls, and so forth, and, in the worst scenario, even loss of lives. This final consequence has led to very stringent airworthiness regulations for engine/aircraft certifications. This paper discusses the historical statistics of noncontainment events in turbofans, turboprops, and turboshafts and shows how the damage severity varies between different applications and how changes to regulations are continuing in order to improve the reliability of aircraft/rotorcraft. The paper also presents design challenges resulting from the analysis complexity of containment/noncontainment event and the way Pratt & Whitney Canada design/analysis/test system caters to all the requirements. The weight and cost impact of possible changes to current regulations are also presented.

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Overpeck, Jonathan; Peyser, Cheryl; Stouffer, Ronald

2018-01-01

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.

Calcareous nannoplankton and foraminiferal response to global Oligocene and Miocene climatic oscillations: a case study from the Western Carpathian segment of the Central Paratethys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holcová, Katarína

2017-06-01

The reactions of foraminiferal and calcareous nannoplankton assemblages to global warming and cooling events in the time intervals of ca. 27 to 19 Ma and 13.5 to 15 Ma (Oligocene and Miocene) were studied in subtropical epicontinental seas influenced by local tectonic and palaeogeographic events (the Central Paratethys). Regardless of these local events, global climatic processes significantly influenced the palaeoenvironment within the marine basin. Warm intervals are characterized by a stable, humid climate and a high-nutrient regime, due primarily to increased continental input of phytodetritus and also locally due to seasonal upwelling. Coarse clastics deposited in a hyposaline environment characterize the marginal part of the basin. Aridification events causing decreased riverine input and consequent nutrient decreases, characterized cold intervals. Apparent seasonality, as well as catastrophic climatic events, induced stress conditions and the expansion of opportunistic taxa. Carbonate production and hypersaline facies characterize the marginal part of the basins. Hypersaline surface water triggered downwelling circulation and mixing of water masses. Decreased abundance or extinction of K-specialists during each cold interval accelerated their speciation in the subsequent warm interval. Local tectonic events led to discordances between local and global sea-level changes (tectonically triggered uplift or subsidence) or to local salt formation (in the rain shadows of newly-created mountains).

Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events: challenges and directions.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Cornelissen, Johannes H C; Visser, Marcel E

2017-06-19

More extreme climatic events (ECEs) are among the most prominent consequences of climate change. Despite a long-standing recognition of the importance of ECEs by paleo-ecologists and macro-evolutionary biologists, ECEs have only recently received a strong interest in the wider ecological and evolutionary community. However, as with many rapidly expanding fields, it lacks structure and cohesiveness, which strongly limits scientific progress. Furthermore, due to the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many ECE studies it is still unclear what the most relevant questions and long-term consequences are of ECEs. To improve synthesis, we first discuss ways to define ECEs that facilitate comparison among studies. We then argue that biologists should adhere to more rigorous attribution and mechanistic methods to assess ECE impacts. Subsequently, we discuss conceptual and methodological links with climatology and disturbance-, tipping point- and paleo-ecology. These research fields have close linkages with ECE research, but differ in the identity and/or the relative severity of environmental factors. By summarizing the contributions to this theme issue we draw parallels between behavioural, ecological and evolutionary ECE studies, and suggest that an overarching challenge is that most empirical and theoretical evidence points towards responses being highly idiosyncratic, and thus predictability being low. Finally, we suggest a roadmap based on the proposition that an increased focus on the mechanisms behind the biological response function will be crucial for increased understanding and predictability of the impacts of ECE.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Some observations on the creative process and its relation to mourning and various forms of understanding.

PubMed

Székely, L

1983-01-01

Highly abstract thinking is the manifestation of the inner working of mental life, which in the present instance is the creative activity of a theoretical physicist. Events in the 'creative workshop' are traditionally not the focus of psychoanalytic inquiry. The study here begins with a description of the intrapsychic consequences of object loss and mourning and their specific outcome during a period of creative work. Three distinctive events can be considered as direct consequences of mourning: (1) The conceptualization of the 'little wave'. (2) The belief, that the 'little wave' is solely his invention. (3) The assumption made in the preconscious, that the 'little wave' is a stable one. (2) and (3) had turned out to be erroneous and had been corrected by Alpha subsequently. Thereafter the scope of the psychoanalytic inquiry widens to include the cognitive strategies employed by the physicist and their genetic link to the collective alternates in Greenacre's sense. One such cognitive strategy is dealt with, to which the term 'tangled hierarchy' is applied. This considers how thought or knowledge acquired at one level is transferred to another, or vice versa, with the aim of achieving some degree of isomorphy between them. Interactions between events within the realm of object relations and those which take place in the preconscious creative sphere are pointed out. The transitional stages of a creative product bear the mark of the specific features of object relations, conflicts and defences. The final product, however, does not exhibit these same marks.

Estimating the economic impact of seismic activity in Kyrgyzstan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pittore, Massimiliano; Sousa, Luis; Grant, Damian; Fleming, Kevin; Parolai, Stefano; Free, Matthew; Moldobekov, Bolot; Takeuchi, Ko

2017-04-01

Estimating the short and long-term economical impact of large-scale damaging events such as earthquakes, tsunamis or tropical storms is an important component of risk assessment, whose outcomes are routinely used to improve risk awareness, optimize investments in prevention and mitigation actions, as well as to customize insurance and reinsurance rates to specific geographical regions or single countries. Such estimations can be carried out by modeling the whole causal process, from hazard assessment to the estimation of loss for specific categories of assets. This approach allows a precise description of the various physical mechanisms contributing to direct seismic losses. However, it should reflect the underlying epistemic and random uncertainties in all involved components in a meaningful way. Within a project sponsored by the World Bank, a seismic risk study for the Kyrgyz Republic has been conducted, focusing on the assessment of social and economical impacts assessed in terms of direct losses of the residential and public building stocks. Probabilistic estimates based on stochastic event catalogs have been computed and integrated with the simulation of specific earthquake scenarios. Although very few relevant data are available in the region on the economic consequences of past damaging events, the proposed approach sets a benchmark for decision makers and policy holders to better understand the short and long term consequences of earthquakes in the region. The presented results confirm the high level of seismic risk of the Kyrgyz Republic territory, outlining the most affected regions; thus advocating for significant Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures to be implemented by local decision- and policy-makers.

The European ASAMPSA_E project : towards guidance to model the impact of high amplitude natural hazards in the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Information on the project progress and needs from the geosciences.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimond, Emmanuel; Decker, Kurt; Guigueno, Yves; Klug, Joakim; Loeffler, Horst

2015-04-01

The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan resulted from the combination of two correlated extreme external events (earthquake and tsunami). The consequences, in particular flooding, went beyond what was considered in the initial engineering design design of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Such situations can in theory be identified using probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology. PSA results may then lead industry (system suppliers and utilities) or Safety Authorities to take appropriate decisions to reinforce the defence-in-depth of the NPP for low probability event but high amplitude consequences. In reality, the development of such PSA remains a challenging task. Definitions of the design basis of NPPs, for example, require data on events with occurrence probabilities not higher than 10-4 per year. Today, even lower probabilities, down to 10-8, are expected and typically used for probabilistic safety analyses (PSA) of NPPs and the examination of so-called design extension conditions. Modelling the combinations of natural or man-made hazards that can affect a NPP and affecting some meaningful probability of occurrence seems to be difficult. The European project ASAMPSAE (www.asampsa.eu) gathers more than 30 organizations (industry, research, safety control) from Europe, US and Japan and aims at identifying some meaningful practices to extend the scope and the quality of the existing probabilistic safety analysis developed for nuclear power plants. It offers a framework to discuss, at a technical level, how "extended PSA" can be developed efficiently and be used to verify if the robustness of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) in their environment is sufficient. The paper will present the objectives of this project, some first lessons and introduce which type of guidance is being developed. It will explain the need of expertise from geosciences to support the nuclear safety assessment in the different area (seismotectonic, hydrological, meteorological and biological hazards, …).

Very long apnea events in preterm infants

PubMed Central

Vergales, Brooke D.; Lee, Hoshik; Clark, Matthew T.; Lake, Douglas E.; Mennen, Anne C.; Kattwinkel, John; Sinkin, Robert A.; Moorman, J. Randall; Fairchild, Karen D.; Delos, John B.

2014-01-01

Apnea is nearly universal among very low birth weight (VLBW) infants, and the associated bradycardia and desaturation may have detrimental consequences. We describe here very long (>60 s) central apnea events (VLAs) with bradycardia and desaturation, discovered using a computerized detection system applied to our database of over 100 infant years of electronic signals. Eighty-six VLAs occurred in 29 out of 335 VLBW infants. Eighteen of the 29 infants had a clinical event or condition possibly related to the VLA. Most VLAs occurred while infants were on nasal continuous positive airway pressure, supplemental oxygen, and caffeine. Apnea alarms on the bedside monitor activated in 66% of events, on average 28 s after cessation of breathing. Bradycardia alarms activated late, on average 64 s after cessation of breathing. Before VLAs oxygen saturation was unusually high, and during VLAs oxygen saturation and heart rate fell unusually slowly. We give measures of the relative severity of VLAs and theoretical calculations that describe the rate of decrease of oxygen saturation. A clinical conclusion is that very long apnea (VLA) events with bradycardia and desaturation are not rare. Apnea alarms failed to activate for about one-third of VLAs. It appears that neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) personnel respond quickly to bradycardia alarms but not consistently to apnea alarms. We speculate that more reliable apnea detection systems would improve patient safety in the NICU. A physiological conclusion is that the slow decrease of oxygen saturation is consistent with a physiological model based on assumed high values of initial oxygen saturation. PMID:25549762

Sensitivity of the WRF model to the lower boundary in an extreme precipitation event - Madeira island case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teixeira, J. C.; Carvalho, A. C.; Carvalho, M. J.; Luna, T.; Rocha, A.

2014-08-01

The advances in satellite technology in recent years have made feasible the acquisition of high-resolution information on the Earth's surface. Examples of such information include elevation and land use, which have become more detailed. Including this information in numerical atmospheric models can improve their results in simulating lower boundary forced events, by providing detailed information on their characteristics. Consequently, this work aims to study the sensitivity of the weather research and forecast (WRF) model to different topography as well as land-use simulations in an extreme precipitation event. The test case focused on a topographically driven precipitation event over the island of Madeira, which triggered flash floods and mudslides in the southern parts of the island. Difference fields between simulations were computed, showing that the change in the data sets produced statistically significant changes to the flow, the planetary boundary layer structure and precipitation patterns. Moreover, model results show an improvement in model skill in the windward region for precipitation and in the leeward region for wind, in spite of the non-significant enhancement in the overall results with higher-resolution data sets of topography and land use.

Temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliveira, Kyssyanne Samihra Santos; Quaresma, Valéria da Silva

2017-10-01

Long-term records of streamflow and suspended sediment load provide a better understanding of the evolution of a river mouth, and its adjacent waters and a support for mitigation programs associated with extreme events and engineering projects. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal variability in the suspended sediment load and streamflow of the Doce River to the Atlantic Ocean, between 1990 and 2013. Streamflow and suspended sediment load were analyzed at the daily, seasonal, and interannual scales. The results showed that at the daily scale, Doce River flood events are due to high intensity and short duration rainfalls, which means that there is a flashy response to rainfall. At the monthly and season scales, approximately 94% of the suspended sediment supply occurs during the wet season. Extreme hydrological events are important for the interannual scale for Doce River sediment supply to the Atlantic Ocean. The results suggest that a summation of anthropogenic interferences (deforestation, urbanization and soil degradation) led to an increase of extreme hydrological events. The findings of this study shows the importance of understanding the typical behavior of the Doce River, allowing the detection of extreme hydrological conditions, its causes and possible environmental and social consequences.

Psychological and Physical Impacts of Extreme Events on Older Adults: Implications for Communications.

PubMed

McClelland, Erin; Amlôt, Richard; Rogers, M Brooke; Rubin, G James; Tesh, John; Pearce, Julia M

2017-02-01

In recent years, a series of large-scale, high-profile natural disasters and terrorist attacks have demonstrated the need for thorough and effective disaster preparedness. While these extreme events affect communities and societies as a whole, they also carry specific risks for particular population groups. Crises such as Hurricane Katrina and the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster in Japan have illustrated the risk of significant and disproportionate morbidity and mortality among older adults during disasters. Age does not necessarily equate to vulnerability, but many physical and psychological consequences of the aging process can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. As the older population grows, so too does the need to ensure that adequate, practical, and appropriate measures exist to offset the specific risks from extreme events associated with this subpopulation. Effective risk and crisis communication plays a key role in mitigating the extent to which older adults are differentially affected during extreme events. By identifying the specific issues affecting older adults, this review highlights important areas for action for practitioners and policy-makers, particularly in the realm of crisis communication. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:127-134).

The fundamental importance of smoking cessation in those with premature ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Rallidis, Loukianos S; Pavlakis, George

2016-09-01

Smoking is the most prevalent risk factor among young patients suffering acute myocardial infarction (AMI). In this review, we will present data on the detrimental consequences of continued smoking with regard to the recurrence of coronary events after an AMI at an early age. A prospective study with long-term follow-up of young survivors of AMI showed that continuation of smoking after a first episode of AMI was the strongest independent predictor of further cardiac events. In particular, persistent smokers had ∼2.5 times higher risk of a new coronary event when compared with nonsmokers. This emphasizes the fundamental importance of initiating smoking cessation treatment in all smokers with AMI during hospitalization. Extrapolating the results of previous studies showing the benefits of smoking cessation in middle-aged or elderly coronary patients, an even greater benefit should be expected in young patients because of their specific characteristics, which are presented in the current review. Young persistent smokers after a premature AMI constitute a high-risk subgroup for a recurrence of cardiac events. Therefore, smoking cessation is a key issue for improving their prognosis and all smokers should be offered effective antismoking treatment at the time of initial hospitalization.

Spatio-temporal Event Classification using Time-series Kernel based Structured Sparsity

PubMed Central

Jeni, László A.; Lőrincz, András; Szabó, Zoltán; Cohn, Jeffrey F.; Kanade, Takeo

2016-01-01

In many behavioral domains, such as facial expression and gesture, sparse structure is prevalent. This sparsity would be well suited for event detection but for one problem. Features typically are confounded by alignment error in space and time. As a consequence, high-dimensional representations such as SIFT and Gabor features have been favored despite their much greater computational cost and potential loss of information. We propose a Kernel Structured Sparsity (KSS) method that can handle both the temporal alignment problem and the structured sparse reconstruction within a common framework, and it can rely on simple features. We characterize spatio-temporal events as time-series of motion patterns and by utilizing time-series kernels we apply standard structured-sparse coding techniques to tackle this important problem. We evaluated the KSS method using both gesture and facial expression datasets that include spontaneous behavior and differ in degree of difficulty and type of ground truth coding. KSS outperformed both sparse and non-sparse methods that utilize complex image features and their temporal extensions. In the case of early facial event classification KSS had 10% higher accuracy as measured by F1 score over kernel SVM methods1. PMID:27830214

Coronal Shock Waves and Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, Edward

Recent evidence supports the view first expressed by Wild, Smerd, and Weiss in 1963 that large solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a consequence of shock waves manifested by radio type II bursts. Following Tylka et al. (ApJ 625, 474, 2005), our picture of SEP acceleration at shocks now includes the effects of variable seed particle population and shock geometry. By taking these factors into account, Tylka and Lee (ApJ 646, 1319, 2006; see also Sandroos Vainio, ApJ 662, L127, 2007; AA 507, L21, 2009) were able to account for the charge-to-mass variability in high-Z ions first reported by Breneman and Stone in 1985. Recent studies of electron-to-proton ratios, both in interplanetary space (Cliver Ling, ApJ 658, 1349, 2007; Dietrich et al., in preparation, 2010) and in gamma-ray-line events (Shih et al., ApJ 698, L152, 2009), also support the view that large SEP events originate in coronal shocks and not in solar flares. Concurrent with the above developments, there is growing evidence that coronal shocks are driven by coronal mass ejections rather than by flare pressure pulses.

International Classification of Impairments, Disabilities, and Handicaps: A Manual of Classification Relating to the Consequences of Disease.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

World Health Organization, Geneva (Switzerland).

The manual contains three classifications (impairments, disabilities, and handicaps), each relating to a different plane of experience consequent upon disease. Section 1 attempts to clarify the nature of health related experiences by addressing reponse to acute and chronic illness; the unifying framework for classification (principle events in the…

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

Traveling Rocky Roads: The Consequences of Transcription-Blocking DNA Lesions on RNA Polymerase II.

PubMed

Steurer, Barbara; Marteijn, Jurgen A

2017-10-27

The faithful transcription of eukaryotic genes by RNA polymerase II (RNAP2) is crucial for proper cell function and tissue homeostasis. However, transcription-blocking DNA lesions of both endogenous and environmental origin continuously challenge the progression of elongating RNAP2. The stalling of RNAP2 on a transcription-blocking lesion triggers a series of highly regulated events, including RNAP2 processing to make the lesion accessible for DNA repair, R-loop-mediated DNA damage signaling, and the initiation of transcription-coupled DNA repair. The correct execution and coordination of these processes is vital for resuming transcription following the successful repair of transcription-blocking lesions. Here, we outline recent insights into the molecular consequences of RNAP2 stalling on transcription-blocking DNA lesions and how these lesions are resolved to restore mRNA synthesis. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Economic impact profiling of CBRN events: focusing on biological incidents.

PubMed

Cavallini, Simona; Bisogni, Fabio; Mastroianni, Marco

2014-12-01

Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) incidents, both caused accidentally by human error or natural/technological events and determined intentionally as criminal/malicious/terroristic acts, have consequences that could be differently characterized. In the last years many efforts to analyze the economic impact of terrorist threat have been carried out, while researches specifically concerning CBRN events have not been extensively undertaken. This paper in particular aims at proposing a methodological approach for studying macro-level economic impact profiles of biological incidents caused by weaponized and non-weaponized materials. The suggested approach investigates the economic consequences of biological incidents according to two main dimensions: type of large-scale effect and persistence of effect. Biological incident economic impacts are analyzed taking into account the persistence of effect during time as short-term impact (i.e. immediately after the incident), medium-term impact (i.e. by a month) and long-term impact (i.e. by years). The costs due to preventive countermeasure against biological threats (e.g. prevention, protection and preparedness expenses) are not taken into account. To this purpose, information on the key features of past biological incidents can be used as case studies to try to build impact profiles taking into account the proposed two main dimensions. Consequence management and effect mitigation of CBRN emergencies and disasters may benefit from an ex ante definition of the impact profiling related to this kind of incidents. The final goal of this paper is to define an approach to organize information on possible biological events according to their impact profile for supporting more effective and efficient first responders' prompt actions and policy makers' strategic decisions after the event occurrence.

Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2017-04-01

Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or lightning are a major threat to industry. In particular, chemical plants, storage facilities, pipelines, and offshore oil and gas facilities are vulnerable to natural events which can cause hazardous materials releases and thereby endanger workers, the population and the environment. These technological accidents are commonly referred to as Natech accidents. Recent events have increased concerns about safety in the offshore oil and gas sector, and the need for improving knowledge on the matter has become evident. With those premises, we analyzed accidents, near misses and accident precursors at offshore facilities in Europe caused by natural events using both a statistical and a qualitative approach. For this purpose, we screened the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD) to identify all incidents that featured natural events as causes or aggravating factors. A dataset of 1,085 global Natech events was built for the statistical analysis. Among those, a subset composed of 303 European records was selected. The results of the analysis showed that offshore Natech events in Europe are frequent; they resulted, however, in low consequences. The main threat to offshore facilities resulted from bad weather, such as strong winds and heavy seas. Storms can put intense loads on the structural parts of offshore installations, eventually exceeding design resistance specifications. Several incidents triggered by lightning strikes and earthquakes were also recorded. Substantial differences in terms of vulnerability, damage modality and consequences emerged between fixed and floating offshore structures. The main damage mode for floating structures was the failure of station keeping systems due to the rupture of mooring or anchors, mainly caused by adverse meteorological conditions. Most of the incidents at fixed offshore structures in Europe involved falling loads for both metal jacket and concrete base platforms due to storms. In contrast, in other parts of the world, and in particular in the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storms are likely to trigger severe direct damage to structures, resulting in platform capsizing, sinking or grounding. The in-depth analysis of the incident records also showed that the natural event was often just the triggering cause of the accident, which was frequently accompanied by contributing factors (e.g. corrosion, fatigue, wrong procedures, etc.). Under these circumstances, not only extreme storms, but also storms with moderate intensity can trigger incidents. Due to the high density of offshore structures and the unique environmental conditions promoting fatigue and corrosion, the North Sea is the area with the highest number of incidents recorded in Europe, as well as the area with the highest number of incidents at semi-submersible units in the world. About 4% of all reported global Natech events at offshore infrastructures involved casualties, and 2.6% for the European incident subset. Hazardous materials releases were documented for 21 events in Europe, resulting in fires and hydrocarbon spills polluting the sea. Furthermore, a surprisingly high number of severe events occurred during towing which highlights the impact of natural hazards on the safety of offshore transfer operations.

Initiation of non-tropical thunderstorms by solar activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, J. R.; Goldberg, R. A.

1976-01-01

Correlative evidence accumulating since 1926 suggests that there must be some physical coupling mechanism between solar activity and thunderstorm occurrence in middle to high latitudes. Such a link may be provided by alteration of atmospheric electric parameters through the combined influence of high-energy solar protons and decreased cosmic ray intensities, both of which are associated with active solar events. The protons produce excess ionization near and above 20km, while the Forbush decreases a lowered conductivity and enhanced fair-weather atmospheric electric field below that altitude. Consequent effects ultimately lead to a charge distribution similar to that found in thunderclouds, and then other cloud physics processes take over to generate the intense electric fields required for lightning discharge.

Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time

Treesearch

Patricia A. Champ; Hannah Brenkert-Smith

2016-01-01

Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs. Using a two-period longitudinal data set...

Community Influence on Precocious Transitions to Adulthood: Racial Differences and Mental Health Consequences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wickrama, K. A. S.; Merten, Michael J.; Elder, Glen H., Jr.

2005-01-01

The "rush to adulthood" is defined by precocious events that place excessive demands on youth who are not adequately prepared for the responsibilities of adulthood. This study investigates the influence of community disadvantage, family, and race on adolescent precocious life events and depressive symptoms in the transition to adulthood. The…

Aquatic ecosystems in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inamdar, Shreeram; Shanley, James B.; McDowell, William H.

2017-01-01

Extreme climate events (ECEs) such as tropical storms and hurricanes, thunderstorms, heat waves, droughts, ice storms, and snow storms have increased and are projected to further increase in intensity and frequency across the world. These events are expected to have significant consequences for aquatic ecosystems with the potential for large changes in ecosystem processes, responses, and functions.

The Role of Chance Events in the School-to-Work Transition: The Influence of Demographic, Personality and Career Development Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirschi, Andreas

2010-01-01

Chance events are considered important in career development, yet little empirical research is available on their predictors and consequences. The present study investigated socio-demographic (gender, nationality, school-type), personality (openness, locus of control) and career development variables (career decidedness, career planning) in…

Postictal behavioural impairments are due to a severe prolonged hypoperfusion/hypoxia event that is COX-2 dependent

PubMed Central

Farrell, Jordan S; Gaxiola-Valdez, Ismael; Wolff, Marshal D; David, Laurence S; Dika, Haruna I; Geeraert, Bryce L; Rachel Wang, X; Singh, Shaily; Spanswick, Simon C; Dunn, Jeff F; Antle, Michael C; Federico, Paolo; Teskey, G Campbell

2016-01-01

Seizures are often followed by sensory, cognitive or motor impairments during the postictal phase that show striking similarity to transient hypoxic/ischemic attacks. Here we show that seizures result in a severe hypoxic attack confined to the postictal period. We measured brain oxygenation in localized areas from freely-moving rodents and discovered a severe hypoxic event (pO2 < 10 mmHg) after the termination of seizures. This event lasted over an hour, is mediated by hypoperfusion, generalizes to people with epilepsy, and is attenuated by inhibiting cyclooxygenase-2 or L-type calcium channels. Using inhibitors of these targets we separated the seizure from the resulting severe hypoxia and show that structure specific postictal memory and behavioral impairments are the consequence of this severe hypoperfusion/hypoxic event. Thus, epilepsy is much more than a disease hallmarked by seizures, since the occurrence of postictal hypoperfusion/hypoxia results in a separate set of neurological consequences that are currently not being treated and are preventable. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19352.001 PMID:27874832

Spatial dynamics of large-scale, multistage crab (Callinectes sapidus) dispersal: Determinants and consequences for recruitment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Etherington, L.L.; Eggleston, D.B.

2003-01-01

We assessed determinants and consequences of multistage dispersal on spatial recruitment of the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, within the Croatan, Albemarle, Pamlico Estuarine System (CAPES), North Carolina, U.S.A. Large-scale sampling of early juvenile crabs over 4 years indicated that spatial abundance patterns were size-dependent and resulted from primary post-larval dispersal (pre-settlement) and secondary juvenile dispersal (early post-settlement). In general, primary dispersal led to high abundances within more seaward habitats, whereas secondary dispersal (which was relatively consistent) expanded the distribution of juveniles, potentially increasing the estuarine nursery capacity. There were strong relationships between juvenile crab density and specific wind characteristics; however, these patterns were spatially explicit. Various physical processes (e.g., seasonal wind events, timing and magnitude of tropical cyclones) interacted to influence dispersal during multiple stages and determined crab recruitment patterns. Our results suggest that the nursery value of different habitats is highly dependent on the dispersal potential (primary and secondary dispersal) to and from these areas, which is largely determined by the relative position of habitats within the estuarine landscape.

Polygraphic respiratory events during sleep with noninvasive ventilation in children: description, prevalence, and clinical consequences.

PubMed

Caldarelli, Valeria; Borel, Jean Christian; Khirani, Sonia; Ramirez, Adriana; Cutrera, Renato; Pépin, Jean-Louis; Fauroux, Brigitte

2013-04-01

The optimal monitoring during sleep with noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) has not been validated in children. The aim of the study was to describe on polygraphic (PG) recordings the respiratory events and associated autonomic arousals (AA) and/or 3 % desaturations (DS3%) during nocturnal NPPV. This was a prospective descriptive study performed in the pulmonology unit of a pediatric university hospital. Consecutive patients admitted for routine follow-up of long-term NPPV were enrolled. Nocturnal PG during sleep with NPPV was performed. A second PG was performed after adjustment of the ventilatory settings when a respiratory event occurred more than 50 times/h. The PG tracings of 39 patients (age range 1-18 years) were analyzed. Underlying diagnoses included neuromuscular disease (n = 13), obstructive sleep apnea (n = 15), and lung disease (n = 11). Unintentional leaks, patient-ventilator asynchronies, decrease in ventilatory drive, upper airway obstruction with or without reduction of ventilatory drive, and mixed events were observed in 27, 33, 10, 11, 12, and 3 % of the patients, respectively. A predominant respiratory event was observed in all patients. The mean duration spent with respiratory events was 32 ± 30 % (range 3-96 %) of total recording time. Unintentional leaks were the most frequently associated with AA, whereas patient-ventilator asynchronies were rarely associated with AA or DS3%. In eight re-evaluated patients, a decrease in the main event was observed (p = 0.005). Respiratory events during sleep with NPPV are common in children treated with long-term NPPV. Consequences of respiratory events vary according to the type of event with unintentional leaks being associated preferentially with AA.

Statistical Surrogate Models for Estimating Probability of High-Consequence Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, R.; Constantine, P.; Boslough, M.

2011-12-01

We have posed the climate change problem in a framework similar to that used in safety engineering, by acknowledging that probabilistic risk assessments focused on low-probability, high-consequence climate events are perhaps more appropriate than studies focused simply on best estimates. To properly explore the tails of the distribution requires extensive sampling, which is not possible with existing coupled atmospheric models due to the high computational cost of each simulation. We have developed specialized statistical surrogate models (SSMs) that can be used to make predictions about the tails of the associated probability distributions. A SSM is different than a deterministic surrogate model in that it represents each climate variable of interest as a space/time random field, that is, a random variable for every fixed location in the atmosphere at all times. The SSM can be calibrated to available spatial and temporal data from existing climate databases, or to a collection of outputs from general circulation models. Because of its reduced size and complexity, the realization of a large number of independent model outputs from a SSM becomes computationally straightforward, so that quantifying the risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence climate events becomes feasible. A Bayesian framework was also developed to provide quantitative measures of confidence, via Bayesian credible intervals, to assess these risks. To illustrate the use of the SSM, we considered two collections of NCAR CCSM 3.0 output data. The first collection corresponds to average December surface temperature for years 1990-1999 based on a collection of 8 different model runs obtained from the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI). We calibrated the surrogate model to the available model data and make various point predictions. We also analyzed average precipitation rate in June, July, and August over a 54-year period assuming a cyclic Y2K ocean model. We applied the calibrated surrogate model to study the probability that the precipitation rate falls below certain thresholds and utilized the Bayesian approach to quantify our confidence in these predictions. Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

Unprecedented Disease-Related Coral Mortality in Southeastern Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Precht, William F.; Gintert, Brooke E.; Robbart, Martha L.; Fura, Ryan; van Woesik, Robert

2016-08-01

Anomalously high water temperatures, associated with climate change, are increasing the global prevalence of coral bleaching, coral diseases, and coral-mortality events. Coral bleaching and disease outbreaks are often inter-related phenomena, since many coral diseases are a consequence of opportunistic pathogens that further compromise thermally stressed colonies. Yet, most coral diseases have low prevalence (<5%), and are not considered contagious. By contrast, we document the impact of an extremely high-prevalence outbreak (61%) of white-plague disease at 14 sites off southeastern Florida. White-plague disease was observed near Virginia Key, Florida, in September 2014, and after 12 months had spread 100 km north and 30 km south. The disease outbreak directly followed a high temperature coral-bleaching event and affected at least 13 coral species. Eusmilia fastigiata, Meandrina meandrites, and Dichocoenia stokesi were the most heavily impacted coral species, and were reduced to <3% of their initial population densities. A number of other coral species, including Colpophyllia natans, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Diploria labyrinthiformis, and Orbicella annularis were reduced to <25% of their initial densities. The high prevalence of disease, the number of susceptible species, and the high mortality of corals affected suggests this disease outbreak is arguably one of the most lethal ever recorded on a contemporary coral reef.

Unprecedented Disease-Related Coral Mortality in Southeastern Florida.

PubMed

Precht, William F; Gintert, Brooke E; Robbart, Martha L; Fura, Ryan; van Woesik, Robert

2016-08-10

Anomalously high water temperatures, associated with climate change, are increasing the global prevalence of coral bleaching, coral diseases, and coral-mortality events. Coral bleaching and disease outbreaks are often inter-related phenomena, since many coral diseases are a consequence of opportunistic pathogens that further compromise thermally stressed colonies. Yet, most coral diseases have low prevalence (<5%), and are not considered contagious. By contrast, we document the impact of an extremely high-prevalence outbreak (61%) of white-plague disease at 14 sites off southeastern Florida. White-plague disease was observed near Virginia Key, Florida, in September 2014, and after 12 months had spread 100 km north and 30 km south. The disease outbreak directly followed a high temperature coral-bleaching event and affected at least 13 coral species. Eusmilia fastigiata, Meandrina meandrites, and Dichocoenia stokesi were the most heavily impacted coral species, and were reduced to <3% of their initial population densities. A number of other coral species, including Colpophyllia natans, Pseudodiploria strigosa, Diploria labyrinthiformis, and Orbicella annularis were reduced to <25% of their initial densities. The high prevalence of disease, the number of susceptible species, and the high mortality of corals affected suggests this disease outbreak is arguably one of the most lethal ever recorded on a contemporary coral reef.

Adverse events in British hospitals: preliminary retrospective record review

PubMed Central

Vincent, Charles; Neale, Graham; Woloshynowych, Maria

2001-01-01

Objectives To examine the feasibility of detecting adverse events through record review in British hospitals and to make preliminary estimates of the incidence and costs of adverse events. Design Retrospective review of 1014 medical and nursing records. Setting Two acute hospitals in Greater London area. Main outcome measure Number of adverse events. Results 110 (10.8%) patients experienced an adverse event, with an overall rate of adverse events of 11.7% when multiple adverse events were included. About half of these events were judged preventable with ordinary standards of care. A third of adverse events led to moderate or greater disability or death. Conclusions These results suggest that adverse events are a serious source of harm to patients and a large drain on NHS resources. Some are major events; others are frequent, minor events that go unnoticed in routine clinical care but together have massive economic consequences. PMID:11230064

Depression after Exposure to Stressful Events: Lessons Learned from the SARS Epidemic

PubMed Central

Liu, Xinhua; Kakade, Meghana; Fuller, Cordelia J.; Fan, Bin; Fang, Yunyun; Kong, Junhui; Guan, Zhiqiang; Wu, Ping

2011-01-01

Aim To examine, among hospital employees exposed to an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), post-outbreak levels of depressive symptoms, and the relationship between those depressive symptom levels and the types of outbreak event exposures experienced. Methods In 2006, randomly selected employees (n = 549) of a hospital in Beijing were surveyed concerning their exposures to the city’s 2003 SARS outbreak, and the ways in which the outbreak had affected their mental health. Subjects were assessed on sociodemographic factors, on types of exposure to the outbreak, and on symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Results The results of multinomial regression analyses showed that, with other relevant factors controlled for, being single, having been quarantined during the outbreak, having been exposed to other traumatic events prior to SARS, and perceived SARS-related risk level during the outbreak were found to increase the odds of having a high level of depressive symptoms three years later. Altruistic acceptance of risk during the outbreak was found to decrease the odds of high post-outbreak depressive symptom levels. Conclusions Policy makers and mental health professionals working to prepare for potential disease outbreaks should be aware that the experience of being quarantined can, in some cases, lead to long-term adverse mental health consequences. PMID:21489421

Extreme precipitation and floods in the Iberian Peninsula and its socio-economic impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M.; Pereira, S.; Trigo, R. M.; Zêzere, J. L.

2017-12-01

Extreme precipitation events in the Iberian Peninsula can induce floods and landslides that have often major socio-economic impacts. The DISASTER database gathered the basic information on past floods and landslides that caused social consequences in Portugal for the period 1865-2015. This database was built under the assumption that social consequences of floods and landslides are sufficient relevant to be reported by newspapers, that provide the data source. Three extreme historical events were analysed in detail taking into account their associated wide socio-economic impacts. The December 1876 record precipitation and flood event leading to an all-time record flow in two large international rivers (Tagus and Guadiana). As a direct consequence, several Portuguese and Spanish towns and villages located in the banks of both rivers suffered serious flood damage on 7 December 1876. The 20-28 December 1909 event recorded the highest number of flood and landslide cases that occurred in Portugal in the period 1865-2015, having triggered the highest floods in 200 years at the Douro river's mouth and causing 89 fatalities in both Portugal and Spain northern regions. More recently the deadliest flash-flooding event affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities in the Lisbon region. We provide a detailed analysis of each of these events, including their human impacts, precipitation analyses based on historical datasets and the associated atmospheric circulation conditions from reanalysis datasets. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project FORLAND - Hydrogeomorphologic risk in Portugal: driving forces and application for land use planning [PTDC / ATPGEO / 1660/2014] funded by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal. A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/ SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). The financial support for attending this workshop was also possible through FCT project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz.

Low-Probability High-Consequence (LPHC) Failure Events in Geologic Carbon Sequestration Pipelines and Wells: Framework for LPHC Risk Assessment Incorporating Spatial Variability of Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Budnitz, Robert J.

If Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is to be effective in mitigating climate change, it will need to be carried out on a very large scale. This will involve many thousands of miles of dedicated high-pressure pipelines in order to transport many millions of tonnes of CO 2 annually, with the CO 2 delivered to many thousands of wells that will inject the CO 2 underground. The new CCS infrastructure could rival in size the current U.S. upstream natural gas pipeline and well infrastructure. This new infrastructure entails hazards for life, health, animals, the environment, and natural resources. Pipelinesmore » are known to rupture due to corrosion, from external forces such as impacts by vehicles or digging equipment, by defects in construction, or from the failure of valves and seals. Similarly, wells are vulnerable to catastrophic failure due to corrosion, cement degradation, or operational mistakes. While most accidents involving pipelines and wells will be minor, there is the inevitable possibility of accidents with very high consequences, especially to public health. The most important consequence of concern is CO 2 release to the environment in concentrations sufficient to cause death by asphyxiation to nearby populations. Such accidents are thought to be very unlikely, but of course they cannot be excluded, even if major engineering effort is devoted (as it will be) to keeping their probability low and their consequences minimized. This project has developed a methodology for analyzing the risks of these rare but high-consequence accidents, using a step-by-step probabilistic methodology. A key difference between risks for pipelines and wells is that the former are spatially distributed along the pipe whereas the latter are confined to the vicinity of the well. Otherwise, the methodology we develop for risk assessment of pipeline and well failures is similar and provides an analysis both of the annual probabilities of accident sequences of concern and of their consequences, and crucially the methodology provides insights into what measures might be taken to mitigate those accident sequences identified as of concern. Mitigating strategies could address reducing the likelihood of an accident sequence of concern, or reducing the consequences, or some combination. The methodology elucidates both local and integrated risks along the pipeline or at the well providing information useful to decision makers at various levels including local (e.g., property owners and town councils), regional (e.g., county and state representatives), and national levels (federal regulators and corporate proponents).« less

Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

PubMed

Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

2018-04-01

Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Daniel; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

A review of hyperprolactinaemia and severe mental illness: are there implications for clinical biochemistry?

PubMed

Bushe, Chris J; Bradley, Andrew; Pendlebury, John

2010-07-01

Hyperprolactinaemia is a common adverse event reported in association with treatments used in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Recent data are suggestive that hyperprolactinaemia may have a range of significant short-and long-term clinical consequences. The objective of this review is to examine the causes, frequency and clinical consequences of hyperprolactinaemia in the severely mentally ill (SMI) with a focus on patients taking antipsychotic medications. A Medline search was carried out to identify relevant publications. Reference lists from previous review articles were also examined to search for additional data. Hyperprolactinaemia may be one of the most common adverse events associated with some antipsychotic medications. Precise rates with individual drugs had however until recently been poorly categorized. The relationship between hyperprolactinaemia and adverse outcomes in the SMI population appears similar to that in the general population. Adverse outcomes (such as sexual dysfunction) can occur acutely and in the longer term (bone fractures and possibly breast cancer), but the precise link between degree and length of hyperprolactinaemia and adverse outcome remains to be established. In conclusion, hyperprolactinaemia is a common treatment-emergent adverse event of some antipsychotic medications and may have clinical consequences. Physicians must balance the benefits and risks of treatment when determining appropriate therapy for individual patients.

Economic Evaluations of the Health Impacts of Weather-Related Extreme Events: A Scoping Review

PubMed Central

Schmitt, Laetitia H. M.; Graham, Hilary M.; White, Piran C. L.

2016-01-01

The frequency and severity of extreme events is expected to increase under climate change. There is a need to understand the economic consequences of human exposure to these extreme events, to underpin decisions on risk reduction. We undertook a scoping review of economic evaluations of the adverse health effects from exposure to weather-related extreme events. We searched PubMed, Embase and Web of Science databases with no restrictions to the type of evaluations. Twenty studies were included, most of which were recently published. Most studies have been undertaken in the U.S. (nine studies) or Asia (seven studies), whereas we found no studies in Africa, Central and Latin America nor the Middle East. Extreme temperatures accounted for more than a third of the pool of studies (seven studies), closely followed by flooding (six studies). No economic study was found on drought. Whilst studies were heterogeneous in terms of objectives and methodology, they clearly indicate that extreme events will become a pressing public health issue with strong welfare and distributional implications. The current body of evidence, however, provides little information to support decisions on the allocation of scarce resources between risk reduction options. In particular, the review highlights a significant lack of research attention to the potential cost-effectiveness of interventions that exploit the capacity of natural ecosystems to reduce our exposure to, or ameliorate the consequences of, extreme events. PMID:27834843

Preparedness and response to terrorism: a framework for public health action.

PubMed

Gofin, Rosa

2005-02-01

Political group violence in the form of terrorist actions has become a reality worldwide, affecting the health and economies of populations. As a consequence, preparedness and response are becoming an integral part of public health action. Risk appraisal, preservation of human and civil rights and communications within and between countries are all issues to be considered in the process. The combination of the natural history of terrorist actions and the epidemiological triangle model has been adapted in this paper and suggested as a comprehensive approach for preparedness and action. It covers preparedness (pre-event), response (event) and the consequences (post-event) of a terrorist attack. It takes into account the human factor, vectors and environment involved in each one of the phases. Terrorism is a global reality with varying underlying causes, manifestations and impact on the health of the public. Preparedness, response and rehabilitation are an integral part of public health action. Consideration of the pre-event, event and post-event phases in terrorist actions, together with the human factor, vector/agent and environment in each of these phases, offers a framework for public health preparedness, response and rehabilitation. Planning should consider risk assessment, risk communication, inter-sectorial cooperation, enactment of laws and regulations which consider protection of the public's health and civil liberties. Allocation of resources would need to make allowance for maintenance and development of ongoing public health activities.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

Impact of paleoceanographic changes at glacial/interglacial transitions on benthic foraminiferal faunas of the eastern North Atlantic (IODP Expedition 339, Site U1385)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunert, Patrick; Hodell, David; Alvarez Zarikian, Carlos; Hernández-Molina, F. Javier; Stow, Dorrik A. V.

2014-05-01

Communities of deep-sea foraminifera are sensitive recorders of environmental conditions. Consequently, the actualistic interpretation of fossil foraminiferal assemblages has become a valuable tool for the reconstruction of paleoceanographic conditions at the sea-floor. For the present study, a quantitative data-set of benthic foraminifera >125μm from the eastern North Atlantic has been analysed to understand paleoceanographic changes (AMOC, ventilation, productivity) associated with glacial/interglacial transitions in more detail. The data-set consists of a series of samples from IODP Site U1385 spanning Terminations I, II and IV and several short-term (millennial-scale) climatic events including the Younger Dryas (YD), Heinrich (H) 1, and H 11. On the family and generic levels, a characteristic succession of foraminiferal assemblages can be recognized at all studied glacial/interglacial transitions: a glacial fauna with abundant occurrences of cassidulinids (Cassidulina, Globocassidulina); a fauna characterized by high abundances of buliminds (Bulimina, Globobulimina) and/or bolivinellids (Bolivinita) that is associated with H-events and the beginning of each termination; a fauna with high abundances of miliolids (mainly Pyrgo) and cibicidids at the end of the termination; an interglacial fauna composed of buliminds (Bulimina), gavellinellids (Gyroidinoides), and pseudoparrellids (Epistominella). For the glacial and interglacial endmembers, this succession indicates a moderately oxygenated environment at the seafloor with mesotrophic conditions due to moderate export productivity. For the early phase of the terminations as well as the short-term events, the dominance of infaunal taxa and high abundances of deep infaunal taxa indicate an environment with high export productivity that is mainly controlled by oxygen. Conversely, the absence of these taxa and the presence of miliolids suggests well-ventilated environments and decreasing export productivity during the later phase of the terminations. While the evaluation on the generic level indicates repetitive paleoenvironmental changes for the studied transitions, the taxonomic analysis on the species level reveals significant differences between the terminations. These differences primarily concern the H-events and the early phase of the terminations. H 1 differs from other such events by showing the highest abundances of deep infaunal like Globobulimina affinis. In contrast, H 11 is characterized by high abundances of Bulimina marginata and Cassidulina laevigata/teretis which are rare to absent during H 1. A similar pattern is observed for a H-event associated with the onset of Termination IV. In contrast, the H-event preceding Termination IV shows high abundances of Bolivinita quadrilatera, a species absent all other samples. The explanation of the faunal differences between the terminations despite a rather comparable environmental framework (poor ventilation and/or high export productivity) indicates that the nature of short-term events is fairly diverse and an individual perspective has to be put on each these events. E.g., in the case of H 1, increased primary productivity and/or severely reduced AMOC compared to other such events might provide explanations. For the other, less well known events new isotopic results are expected to help with the explanation.

Out of Place, Out of Mind: Schema-Driven False Memory Effects for Object-Location Bindings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lew, Adina R.; Howe, Mark L.

2017-01-01

Events consist of diverse elements, each processed in specialized neocortical networks, with temporal lobe memory systems binding these elements to form coherent event memories. We provide a novel theoretical analysis of an unexplored consequence of the independence of memory systems for elements and their bindings, 1 that raises the paradoxical…

Persuasibility--A Reception-yielding Process: A Nonmonotonic Theory of Man's Reception Distortion Behaviors as a Function of Environmental Fluctuations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, John E.; Reinard, John C., Jr.

Three environmental elements--messages, events, and perceived consequences of choices--cause varying amounts of stress on an individual and affect his capacity to deal with his environment. There is a nonmonotonic relationship between environmental pressures ("event press") and persuasibility in that the number and importance of…

Extreme Magnetic Storms: Their Characteristics and Possible Consequences for Humanity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falkowski, B. J.; Tsurutani, B.; Lakhina, G. S.; Deng, Y.; Mannucci, A. J.

2015-12-01

The solar and interplanetary conditions necessary to create an extreme magnetic storm will be discussed. The Carrington 1859 event was not the largest possible. It will be shown that different facets of fast ICMEs/extreme magnetic storms will have different limitations. Some possible adverse effects of such extreme space weather events on society will be addressed.

Work-related posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other emotional diseases as consequence of traumatic events in public transportation: a systematic review.

PubMed

Clarner, Annika; Graessel, Elmar; Scholz, Johanna; Niedermeier, Alexander; Uter, Wolfgang; Drexler, Hans

2015-07-01

Drivers in public transportation are at risk of experiencing potential traumatic events such as accidents involving persons, collisions, or suicides. In this context, the question arises to what extent psychological traumatization and posttraumatic diseases occur. The aim of this systematic review was to describe the frequency and nature of work-related posttraumatic disorders, to analyze risk and prognostic factors after potentially traumatic events (accidents resulting in damage to property and/or in injury or death), and address sick leave after such events in the realm of public transportation, based on the available literature. Systematic review based on four databases (PubMed, PSYNDEX/MEDLINE, ScienceDirect, PILOTS) between 1980 and June 2013. We identified seven studies (four longitudinal, three cross-sectional) that examine employees after person under train (PUT) events. PTSD prevalences varied broadly between 0.7 and 17 %. The same applies to dysthymia/neurotic depression (1-26 %). However, similarly low prevalences of major depression (1.3-2.8 %) and panic disorder (0.5-1.3 %) have been observed. Risk factors of PTSD comprised individual, work-related, event-related, and prognostic aspects. Following the traumatic event, a total of 69-81 % of the drivers were absent, and if sick leave occurs, this was on average 3-19 days. It became evident that drivers in public transportation run a high risk of sick leave. It was also striking that despite the immense impact of PUT and high number of suicides, only an infinitesimal number of studies exists. Due to various differences (period of follow-up, instrument of measurement and study period), it turned out that the comparability of the results of the studies is limited. For various reasons, further research is urgently needed, as from an occupational health point of view the issue of posttraumatic diseases and implications for fitness for service should be addressed.

Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) as a tool for the reconstruction of extreme wave event characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta

2017-04-01

The shores of the Northern Indian Ocean were exposed to extreme wave inundation in the past. Two relevant hazards, storm surges triggered by tropical cyclones and tsunamis, are known to occur in the region but are rarely instrumentally recorded. Various sediment deposits along the coast are the only remnants of those past events. A profound understanding of return periods and magnitudes of past events is essential for developing land-use planning and risk mitigation measures in Oman and neighboring countries. A detailed investigation of these deposits, in this case primarily blocks and boulder trains but also fine grained sediments, provides insight on parameters such as wave height and inundation distance. These parameters can then be used for modeling inundation scenarios superimposed on modern infrastructure. We are investigating the spatial 3D-distribution of the extreme wave event sediments along the coastline through a high-precision survey of the event deposits using a Faro Focus 3D X330 TLS. A TLS is capable of recording high-detail and colored point clouds, which allows detailed measurements and has proved to be a powerful tool in geosciences. These multi-parameter point clouds in combination with dating results serve as a base for extreme wave event return period and magnitude estimations. Relevant parameters on large sediments are size, shape, volume, mass as well as relative arrangement, sorting and orientation. Furthermore, the TLS data is used to distinguish between the various boulder lithologies using a multi-scale supervised classification. Surface roughness as a result of weathering can serve as an indicator for exposure time of boulders and hint on various generations of extreme wave events. The distribution of the boulders relative to the site they were quarried from indicates on the flow direction of the waves and consequently might help to distinguish between storm and tsunami waves.

Chemical facility vulnerability assessment project.

PubMed

Jaeger, Calvin D

2003-11-14

Sandia National Laboratories, under the direction of the Office of Science and Technology, National Institute of Justice, conducted the chemical facility vulnerability assessment (CFVA) project. The primary objective of this project was to develop, test and validate a vulnerability assessment methodology (VAM) for determining the security of chemical facilities against terrorist or criminal attacks (VAM-CF). The project also included a report to the Department of Justice for Congress that in addition to describing the VAM-CF also addressed general observations related to security practices, threats and risks at chemical facilities and chemical transport. In the development of the VAM-CF Sandia leveraged the experience gained from the use and development of VAs in other areas and the input from the chemical industry and Federal agencies. The VAM-CF is a systematic, risk-based approach where risk is a function of the severity of consequences of an undesired event, the attack potential, and the likelihood of adversary success in causing the undesired event. For the purpose of the VAM-CF analyses Risk is a function of S, L(A), and L(AS), where S is the severity of consequence of an event, L(A) is the attack potential and L(AS) likelihood of adversary success in causing a catastrophic event. The VAM-CF consists of 13 basic steps. It involves an initial screening step, which helps to identify and prioritize facilities for further analysis. This step is similar to the prioritization approach developed by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Other steps help to determine the components of the risk equation and ultimately the risk. The VAM-CF process involves identifying the hazardous chemicals and processes at a chemical facility. It helps chemical facilities to focus their attention on the most critical areas. The VAM-CF is not a quantitative analysis but, rather, compares relative security risks. If the risks are deemed too high, recommendations are developed for measures to reduce the risk. This paper will briefly discuss the CFVA project and VAM-CF process.

Long-term Changes in Habitat Provision by a Temperate Benthic Bioconstructor Threatened by Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cocito, S.; Lombardi, C.

2016-02-01

In a wide range of temperate environmental settings, long-lived, carbonate benthic organisms provide the framework of biogenic constructions, which create and maintain habitats and ecological niches for many species. These physical structures provide living space which progressively increases as framework grows. In temperate waters, bryozoans can have reef-constructing roles, and can substitute for corals in abundance and structure. As all bioconstructional species, they are seriously threaten by climate changes and its consequences such as thermal anomalies. The present study provides an assessment of changes in habitat provision by a reef-forming bryozoan dominating sub-tidal rocky reefs in the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean) through 9-year time. Large ellipsoidal foliaceous colonies of Pentapora fascialis were monitored in 12 replicated stations (area: 1 m2) at two depths (11 and 22 m) from 1997 to 2005. Variation of living space (i.e. empty colony spaces) was computed by using colony width and high recorded annually. Impacts and long-term consequences of the 1999 and 2003 thermal anomalies were evaluated as changes in empty colony spaces. Over the 9 year monitoring, living space resulted more abundant at the deep stations (2947±617 cm3) than at the shallow ones (1652±494 cm3). Rapid decline in living space (90% and 94% reduction at 11 and 22 m stations, respectively) following the 1999 event was mainly due to the necrosis and reduction of the largest colonies. Differently, after the 2003 thermal anomaly the living space decline occurred gradually during the following 2 years. Interestingly, between the two events, colonies at the deep stations regained living space to pre-disturbance level (5671±1862 cm3) showing higher resilience to disturbance. Detecting effects of extreme events on bioconstructions and associated biota will contribute to the assessment of biodiversity changes and to predict future changes in threatened marine ecosystems.

Enhancement of NRC station blackout requirements for nuclear power plants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McConnell, M. W.

2012-07-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) established a Near-Term Task Force (NTTF) in response to Commission direction to conduct a systematic and methodical review of NRC processes and regulations to determine whether the agency should make additional improvements to its regulatory system and to make recommendations to the Commission for its policy direction, in light of the accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant. The NTTF's review resulted in a set of recommendations that took a balanced approach to defense-in-depth as applied to low-likelihood, high-consequence events such as prolonged station blackout (SBO) resulting from severe natural phenomena. Part 50,more » Section 63, of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), 'Loss of All Alternating Current Power,' currently requires that each nuclear power plant must be able to cool the reactor core and maintain containment integrity for a specified duration of an SBO. The SBO duration and mitigation strategy for each nuclear power plant is site specific and is based on the robustness of the local transmission system and the transmission system operator's capability to restore offsite power to the nuclear power plant. With regard to SBO, the NTTF recommended that the NRC strengthen SBO mitigation capability at all operating and new reactors for design-basis and beyond-design-basis external events. The NTTF also recommended strengthening emergency preparedness for prolonged SBO and multi-unit events. These recommendations, taken together, are intended to clarify and strengthen US nuclear reactor safety regarding protection against and mitigation of the consequences of natural disasters and emergency preparedness during SBO. The focus of this paper is on the existing SBO requirements and NRC initiatives to strengthen SBO capability at all operating and new reactors to address prolonged SBO stemming from design-basis and beyond-design-basis external events. The NRC initiatives are intended to enhance core and spent fuel pool cooling, reactor coolant system integrity, and containment integrity. (authors)« less

Telemedicine to promote patient safety: Use of phone-based interactive voice response system (IVRS) to reduce adverse safety events in predialysis CKD

PubMed Central

Weiner, Shoshana; Fink, Jeffery C.

2017-01-01

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients have several features conferring upon them a high risk of adverse safety events, which are defined as incidents with unintended harm related to processes of care or medications. These characteristics include impaired renal function, polypharmacy, and frequent health system encounters. The consequences of such events in CKD can include new or prolonged hospitalization, accelerated renal function loss, acute kidney injury, end-stage renal disease and death. Health information technology administered via telemedicine presents opportunities for CKD patients to remotely communicate safety-related findings to providers for the purpose of improving their care. However, many CKD patients have limitations which hinder their use of telemedicine and access to the broad capabilities of health information technology. In this review we summarize previous assessments of the pre-dialysis CKD populations’ proficiency in using telemedicine modalities and describe the use of interactive voice-response system (IVRS) to gauge the safety phenotype of the CKD patient. We discuss the potential for expanded IVRS use in CKD to address the safety threats inherent to this population. PMID:28224940

Ultrafast Fabry-Perot fiber-optic pressure sensors for multimedia blast event measurements.

PubMed

Zou, Xiaotian; Wu, Nan; Tian, Ye; Zhang, Yang; Fitek, John; Maffeo, Michael; Niezrecki, Christopher; Chen, Julie; Wang, Xingwei

2013-02-20

A shock wave (SW) is characterized as a large pressure fluctuation that typically lasts only a few milliseconds. On the battlefield, SWs pose a serious threat to soldiers who are exposed to explosions, which may lead to blast-induced traumatic brain injuries. SWs can also be used beneficially and have been applied to a variety of medical treatments due to their unique interaction with tissues and cells. Consequently, it is important to have sensors that can quantify SW dynamics in order to better understand the physical interaction between body tissue and the incident acoustic wave. In this paper, the ultrafast fiber-optic sensor based on the Fabry-Perot interferometric principle was designed and four such sensors were fabricated to quantify a blast event within different media, simultaneously. The compact design of the fiber-optic sensor allows for a high degree of spatial resolution when capturing the wavefront of the traveling SW. Several blast event experiments were conducted within different media (e.g., air, rubber membrane, and water) to evaluate the sensor's performance. This research revealed valuable knowledge for further study of SW behavior and SW-related applications.

The crucible of Iraq--causes and consequences.

PubMed

Piachaud, Jack; Sharma, Sonali

2008-01-01

War can be seen as a crucible in which global geopolitical forces act on a population in a transformative manner. The psychological impact of war can be described in many ways, from the diagnostic to the narrative, from the intrapersonal to the relational. This paper explores whether the forces driving the conflict relate to the consequent psychological processes of those caught up in it. Geopolitical drivers, underlying global issues and the consequences on mental well-being are described. The models we use to define the consequences of war determine the degree to which the causes are seen as relevant to restorative, transformational or therapeutic processes; however a simple model reducing the consequences to traumatic events and symptoms, whilst having some validity, is not a sufficient description of the human experience. Understanding the causes and consequences of war is a multidisciplinary venture.

Psychotraumatology in the Netherlands

PubMed Central

Vermetten, Eric; Olff, Miranda

2013-01-01

The contribution to psychotrauma literature from Dutch authors has a long tradition. The relatively high lifetime prevalence of trauma and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is not unique for the Netherlands and does not fully explain the interest in trauma and its consequences. In this overview of psychotraumatology in the Netherlands, we will discuss some of the key events and processes that contribute to the current interest. We outlined the historical basis and development of the field in the Netherlands, including the impact of World War II, the effects of major man-made or natural disasters, engagement in military conflicts, as well as smaller scale traumatic events like sexual abuse and traffic accidents. The liberal and open culture may have reduced stigma to trauma, while other sociocultural aspects may have contributed to increased prevalence. Finally, we describe Dutch psychotraumatology today and how history and culture have shaped the current scientific basis. PMID:23671764

Predicted and experienced affective responses to the outcome of the 2008 U.S. presidential election.

PubMed

Kitchens, Michael B; Corser, Grant C; Gohm, Carol L; VonWaldner, Kristen L; Foreman, Elizabeth L

2010-12-01

People typically have intense feelings about politics. Therefore, it was no surprise that the campaign and eventual election of Barack Obama were highly anticipated and emotionally charged events, making it and the emotion experienced afterward a useful situation in which to replicate prior research showing that people typically overestimate the intensity and duration of their future affective states. Consequently, it was expected that Obama supporters and McCain supporters might overestimate the intensity of their affective responses to the outcome of the election. Data showed that while McCain supporters underestimated how happy they would be following the election, Obama supporters accurately predicted how happy they would be following the election. These data provide descriptive information on the accuracy of people's predicted reactions to the 2008 U.S. presidential election. The findings are discussed in the context of the broad literature and this specific and unique event.

Advanced Simulation of Coupled Earthquake and Tsunami Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrens, Joern

2013-04-01

Tsunami-Earthquakes represent natural catastrophes threatening lives and well-being of societies in a solitary and unexpected extreme event as tragically demonstrated in Sumatra (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010), or Japan (2011). Both phenomena are consequences of the complex system of interactions of tectonic stress, fracture mechanics, rock friction, rupture dynamics, fault geometry, ocean bathymetry, and coastline geometry. The ASCETE project forms an interdisciplinary research consortium that couples the most advanced simulation technologies for earthquake rupture dynamics and tsunami propagation to understand the fundamental conditions of tsunami generation. We report on the latest research results in physics-based dynamic rupture and tsunami wave propagation simulation, using unstructured and adaptive meshes with continuous and discontinuous Galerkin discretization approaches. Coupling both simulation tools - the physics-based dynamic rupture simulation and the hydrodynamic tsunami wave propagation - will give us the possibility to conduct highly realistic studies of the interaction of rupture dynamics and tsunami impact characteristics.

Integrative Systems Models of Cardiac Excitation Contraction Coupling

PubMed Central

Greenstein, Joseph L.; Winslow, Raimond L.

2010-01-01

Excitation-contraction coupling in the cardiac myocyte is mediated by a number of highly integrated mechanisms of intracellular Ca2+ transport. The complexity and integrative nature of heart cell electrophysiology and Ca2+-cycling has led to an evolution of computational models that have played a crucial role in shaping our understanding of heart function. An important emerging theme in systems biology is that the detailed nature of local signaling events, such as those that occur in the cardiac dyad, have important consequences at higher biological scales. Multi-scale modeling techniques have revealed many mechanistic links between micro-scale events, such as Ca2+ binding to a channel protein, and macro-scale phenomena, such as excitation-contraction coupling gain. Here we review experimentally based multi-scale computational models of excitation-contraction coupling and the insights that have been gained through their application. PMID:21212390

Functional Analysis of Problem Behavior: A Systematic Approach for Identifying Idiosyncratic Variables

PubMed Central

Roscoe, Eileen M.; Schlichenmeyer, Kevin J.; Dube, William V.

2015-01-01

When inconclusive functional analysis (FA) outcomes occur, a number of modifications have been made to enhance the putative establishing operation or consequence associated with behavioral maintenance. However, a systematic method for identifying relevant events to test during modified FAs has not been evaluated. The purpose of this study was to develop and evaluate a technology for systematically identifying events to test in a modified FA after an initial FA led to inconclusive outcomes. Six individuals whose initial FA showed little or no responding or high levels only in the control condition participated. An indirect assessment (IA) questionnaire developed for identifying idiosyncratic variables was administered, and a descriptive analysis (DA) was conducted. Results from the IA only or a combination of the IA and DA were used to inform modified FA test and control conditions. Conclusive FA outcomes were obtained with five of the six participants during the modified FA phase. PMID:25930176

Excavating Stickney crater at Phobos

DOE PAGES

Bruck Syal, Megan; Rovny, Jared; Owen, J. Michael; ...

2016-10-24

Stickney crater, at 9 km across, dominates the morphology of ~22 km Phobos, the larger of the two moons of Mars. The Stickney impact event had global repercussions for Phobos, including extensive resurfacing and fracturing of the moon. Understanding the initial conditions and dynamical consequences of the collision is necessary to test competing hypotheses for the origin of peculiar grooved terrain that striates much of the surface. Previous modeling of the impact event was unable to replicate Stickney without globally fragmenting the satellite. We also describe high-resolution numerical simulations that successfully generate Stickney crater while maintaining the large-scale structure ofmore » Phobos. Target porosity, which is estimated to be significant, aids in keeping the moon intact. Damage follows patterns centered on Stickney that are inconsistent with the observed alignment of grooved terrain on Phobos. We ejected low-velocity boulders at shallow angles in sufficient numbers to support a rolling-boulder origin for grooved terrain.« less

Excavating Stickney crater at Phobos

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bruck Syal, Megan; Rovny, Jared; Owen, J. Michael

Stickney crater, at 9 km across, dominates the morphology of ~22 km Phobos, the larger of the two moons of Mars. The Stickney impact event had global repercussions for Phobos, including extensive resurfacing and fracturing of the moon. Understanding the initial conditions and dynamical consequences of the collision is necessary to test competing hypotheses for the origin of peculiar grooved terrain that striates much of the surface. Previous modeling of the impact event was unable to replicate Stickney without globally fragmenting the satellite. We also describe high-resolution numerical simulations that successfully generate Stickney crater while maintaining the large-scale structure ofmore » Phobos. Target porosity, which is estimated to be significant, aids in keeping the moon intact. Damage follows patterns centered on Stickney that are inconsistent with the observed alignment of grooved terrain on Phobos. We ejected low-velocity boulders at shallow angles in sufficient numbers to support a rolling-boulder origin for grooved terrain.« less

Near Field Observations of Seismicity in Volcanic Environments: A Read-Made Field Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bean, C. J.; Thun, J.; Eibl, E. P. S.; Benson, P. M.; Rowley, P.; Lokmer, I.; Cauchie, L.

2017-12-01

Volcanic environments experience periods of rapid stress fluctuations and consequent seismicity. This volcano seismicity is diverse in character, spanning the range from discrete high frequency events through low-frequency earthquakes and tremor. The inter-relationships between these events appear to be controlled by edifice rheology, stress state and the presence of fluids (which help modulate the stress field). In general volcanoes are accessible to instrumentation, allowing near-field access to the seismicity at play. Here we present results from a range of field, numerical and laboratory experiments that demonstrate the controls that rheology and strain rate play on seismicity type. In particular we demonstrate the role played by internal friction angles on the initiation and evolution of seismicity, in dry weak-compliant volcanic materials. Furthermore we show the importance of near field observation in constraining details of the seismic source, in a meso-scale field setting.

The Recent Atlantic Cold Anomaly: Causes, Consequences, and Related Phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Josey, Simon A.; Hirschi, Joel J.-M.; Sinha, Bablu; Duchez, Aurélie; Grist, Jeremy P.; Marsh, Robert

2018-01-01

Cold ocean temperature anomalies have been observed in the mid- to high-latitude North Atlantic on interannual to centennial timescales. Most notably, a large region of persistently low surface temperatures accompanied by a sharp reduction in ocean heat content was evident in the subpolar gyre from the winter of 2013-2014 to 2016, and the presence of this feature at a time of pervasive warming elsewhere has stimulated considerable debate. Here, we review the role of air-sea interaction and ocean processes in generating this cold anomaly and place it in a longer-term context. We also discuss the potential impacts of surface temperature anomalies for the atmosphere, including the North Atlantic Oscillation and European heat waves; contrast the behavior of the Atlantic with the extreme warm surface event that occurred in the North Pacific over a similar timescale; and consider the possibility that these events represent a response to a change in atmospheric planetary wave forcing.

Sound diffraction at wall impedance discontinuities in a circular cylinder - Investigated using Wiener-Hopf technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cho, Y.-C.

1983-01-01

The results of ground observations as well as high resolution rocket electric field and particle observations during a breakup event of an intense magnetospheric substorm over northern Scandinavia are discussed. In particular, the characteristics of the substorm-associated electric field, ionospheric currents, and power dissipation during a time period about 15 minutes after substorm onset are addressed. A comparison of the observations with those of a pre-breakup event earlier in the day (Marklund et al., 1982) showed that the ionospheric substorm-related electric field could be split up into two parts: (1) an ambient LT-dependent field, probably of magnetospheric origin; and (2) a small-scale electric field associated with the bright auroral structures, which is superimposed on the LT-dependent field. The consequences for the location of the ionospheric currents and the Joule energy dissipation relative to the auroral forms are discussed. Previously announced in STAR as N83-23117

Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

2017-04-01

Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical method, unchanged. The advantages of the suggested Pi-Td method of projecting future precipitation events from historic events is that it is simple to use, is less expensive time, computational and resource wise compared to a numerical model. The outcome can be used directly for hydrological and climatological studies and for impact analysis such as for flood risk assessments.

Adverse life events and delinquent behavior among Kenyan adolescents: a cross-sectional study on the protective role of parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Past research provides strong evidence that adverse life events heighten the risk of delinquent behavior among adolescents. Urban informal (slum) settlements in sub-Saharan Africa are marked by extreme adversity. However, the prevalence and consequences of adverse life events as well as protective factors that can mitigate the effects of exposure to these events in slum settlements is largely understudied. We examine two research questions. First, are adverse life events experienced at the individual and household level associated with a higher likelihood of delinquent behavior among adolescents living in two slums in Nairobi, Kenya? Second, are parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem protective against delinquency in a context of high adversity? Methods We used cross-sectional data from 3,064 males and females aged 12–19 years who participated in the Transitions to Adulthood Study. We examined the extent to which a composite index of adverse life events was associated with delinquent behavior (measured using a composite index derived from nine items). We also examined the direct and moderating effects of three protective factors: parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem. Results Fifty-four percent of adolescents reported at least one adverse life event, while 18% reported three or more adverse events. For both males and females, adversity was positively and significantly associated with delinquency in bivariate and multivariate models. Negative associations were observed between the protective factors and delinquency. Significant adverse events × protective factor interaction terms were observed for parental monitoring (females and males), religiosity (males), and self-esteem (females). Conclusions Similar to research in high income countries, adverse life events are associated with an increased likelihood of delinquent behavior among adolescents living in urban slums in Kenya, a low-income country. However, parental monitoring, religiosity, and self-esteem may moderate the effect of adversity on delinquent behavior and pinpoint possible avenues to develop interventions to reduce delinquency in resource-poor settings in low and middle income countries. PMID:25210535

A Personal Experience Reducing Radiation Exposures: Protecting Family in Kiev during the First Two Weeks after Chernobyl

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eremenko, Vitaly A.; Droppo, James G.

2006-08-01

The Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident occurred in 1986. The plume from the explosions and fires was highly radioactive and resulted in very high exposure levels in the surrounding regions. This paper describes how the people in Kiev, Ukraine, a city 90 miles (120 km) south of Chernobyl, and in particular one individual in that city, Professor Vitaly Eremenko, became aware of the threat before the official announcement and the steps he took to mitigate potential impacts to his immediate family. The combination of being informed and using available resources led to greatly reduced consequences for his family and, in particular,more » his newborn granddaughter. He notes how quickly word of some aspects of the hazard spread in the city and how other aspects appear to not have been understood. Although these events are being recalled as the 20th anniversary of the terrible event approaches, the lessons are still pertinent today. Threats of possible terrorist use of radiation dispersal devices makes knowledge of effective individual actions for self-protection from radiation exposures a topic of current interest.« less

[Medical coverage of a road bicycle race].

PubMed

Reifferscheid, Florian; Stuhr, Markus; Harding, Ulf; Schüler, Christine; Thoms, Jürgen; Püschel, Klaus; Kappus, Stefan

2010-07-01

Major sport events require adequate expertise and experience concerning medical coverage and support. Medical and ambulance services need to cover both participants and spectators. Likewise, residents at the venue need to be provided for. Concepts have to include the possibility of major incidents related to the event. Using the example of the Hamburg Cyclassics, a road bicycle race and major event for professional and amateur cyclists, this article describes the medical coverage, number of patients, types of injuries and emergencies. Objectives regarding the planning of future events and essential medical coverage are consequently discussed. (c) Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart-New York.

Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cline, M.; Perry, F. V.; Valentine, G. A.; Smistad, E.

2005-12-01

Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgement, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 X 10-8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 X 10-8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered; 1) igneous intrusion-groundwater transport case and 2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of the waste packages into the atmosphere, deposition of a tephra sheet, and redistribution of the contaminated ash. In both cases radioactive material is released to the accessible environment either through groundwater transport or through the atmospheric dispersal and deposition. Six Quaternary volcanic centers exist within 20 km of Yucca Mountain. Lathrop Wells cone (LWC), the youngest (approximately 75,000 yrs), is a well-preserved cinder cone with associated flows and tephra sheet that provides an excellent analogue for consequence studies related to future volcanism. Cone, lavas, hydrovolcanic ash, and ash-fall tephra have been examined to estimate eruptive volume and eruption type. LWC ejecta volumes suggest basaltic volcanism may be waning in the Yucca Mountain region.. The eruptive products indicate a sequence of initial fissure fountaining, early Strombolian ash and lapilli deposition forming the scoria cone, a brief hydrovolcanic pulse (possibly limited to the NW sector), and a violent Strombolian phase. Mathematical models have been developed to represent magmatic processes and their consequences on proposed repository performance. These models address dike propagation, magma interaction and flow into drifts, eruption through the proposed repository, and post intrusion/eruption effects. These models continue to be refined to reduce the uncertainty associated with the consequences from a possible future igneous event.

The geological record of ocean acidification.

PubMed

Hönisch, Bärbel; Ridgwell, Andy; Schmidt, Daniela N; Thomas, Ellen; Gibbs, Samantha J; Sluijs, Appy; Zeebe, Richard; Kump, Lee; Martindale, Rowan C; Greene, Sarah E; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Ries, Justin; Zachos, James C; Royer, Dana L; Barker, Stephen; Marchitto, Thomas M; Moyer, Ryan; Pelejero, Carles; Ziveri, Patrizia; Foster, Gavin L; Williams, Branwen

2012-03-02

Ocean acidification may have severe consequences for marine ecosystems; however, assessing its future impact is difficult because laboratory experiments and field observations are limited by their reduced ecologic complexity and sample period, respectively. In contrast, the geological record contains long-term evidence for a variety of global environmental perturbations, including ocean acidification plus their associated biotic responses. We review events exhibiting evidence for elevated atmospheric CO(2), global warming, and ocean acidification over the past ~300 million years of Earth's history, some with contemporaneous extinction or evolutionary turnover among marine calcifiers. Although similarities exist, no past event perfectly parallels future projections in terms of disrupting the balance of ocean carbonate chemistry-a consequence of the unprecedented rapidity of CO(2) release currently taking place.

Resolving the fine-scale structure in turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheel, Janet D.; Emran, Mohammad S.; Schumacher, Jörg

2013-11-01

We present high-resolution direct numerical simulation studies of turbulent Rayleigh-Bénard convection in a closed cylindrical cell with an aspect ratio of one. The focus of our analysis is on the finest scales of convective turbulence, in particular the statistics of the kinetic energy and thermal dissipation rates in the bulk and the whole cell. The fluctuations of the energy dissipation field can directly be translated into a fluctuating local dissipation scale which is found to develop ever finer fluctuations with increasing Rayleigh number. The range of these scales as well as the probability of high-amplitude dissipation events decreases with increasing Prandtl number. In addition, we examine the joint statistics of the two dissipation fields and the consequences of high-amplitude events. We have also investigated the convergence properties of our spectral element method and have found that both dissipation fields are very sensitive to insufficient resolution. We demonstrate that global transport properties, such as the Nusselt number, and the energy balances are partly insensitive to insufficient resolution and yield correct results even when the dissipation fields are under-resolved. Our present numerical framework is also compared with high-resolution simulations which use a finite difference method. For most of the compared quantities the agreement is found to be satisfactory.

Severely deficient autobiographical memory (SDAM) in healthy adults: A new mnemonic syndrome.

PubMed

Palombo, Daniela J; Alain, Claude; Söderlund, Hedvig; Khuu, Wayne; Levine, Brian

2015-06-01

Recollection of previously experienced events is a key element of human memory that entails recovery of spatial, perceptual, and mental state details. While deficits in this capacity in association with brain disease have serious functional consequences, little is known about individual differences in autobiographical memory (AM) in healthy individuals. Recently, healthy adults with highly superior autobiographical capacities have been identified (e.g., LePort, A.K., Mattfeld, A.T., Dickinson-Anson, H., Fallon, J.H., Stark, C.E., Kruggel, F., McGaugh, J.L., 2012. Behavioral and neuroanatomical investigation of Highly Superior Autobiographical Memory (HSAM). Neurobiol. Learn. Mem. 98(1), 78-92. doi: 10.1016/j.nlm.2012.05.002). Here we report data from three healthy, high functioning adults with the reverse pattern: lifelong severely deficient autobiographical memory (SDAM) with otherwise preserved cognitive function. Their self-reported selective inability to vividly recollect personally experienced events from a first-person perspective was corroborated by absence of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and event-related potential (ERP) biomarkers associated with naturalistic and laboratory episodic recollection, as well as by behavioral evidence of impaired episodic retrieval, particularly for visual information. Yet learning and memory were otherwise intact, as long as these tasks could be accomplished by non-episodic processes. Thus these individuals function normally in day-to-day life, even though their past is experienced in the absence of recollection. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Extreme Landfalling Atmospheric River Events in Arizona: Possible Future Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, I.; Dominguez, F.

2016-12-01

Changing climate could impact the frequency and intensity of extreme atmospheric river events. This can have important consequences for regions like the Southwestern United Sates that rely upon AR-related precipitation for meeting their water demand and are prone to AR-related flooding. This study investigates the effects of climate change on extreme AR events in the Salt and Verde river basins in Central Arizona using a pseudo global warming method (PGW). First, the five most extreme events that affected the region were selected. High-resolution control simulations of these events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model realistically captured the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation. Subsequently, following the PGW approach, the WRF initial and lateral boundary conditions were perturbed. The perturbation signals were obtained from an ensemble of 9 General Circulation Models for two warming scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5. Several simulations were conducted changing the temperature and relative humidity fields. PGW simulations reveal that while the overall dynamics of the storms did not change significantly, there was marked strengthening of associated Integrated Vertical Transport (IVT) plumes. There was a general increase in the precipitation over the basins due to increased moisture availability, but heterogeneous spatial changes. Additionally, no significant changes in the strength of the pre-cold frontal low-level jet in the future simulations were observed.

Risk of thromboembolic complications in adult congenital heart disease: A literature review.

PubMed

Karsenty, Clement; Zhao, Alexandre; Marijon, Eloi; Ladouceur, Magalie

2018-05-30

Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) is a constantly expanding population with challenging issues. Initial medical and surgical treatments are seldom curative, and the majority of patients still experience late sequelae and complications, especially thromboembolic events. These common and potentially life-threating adverse events are probably dramatically underdiagnosed. Better identification and understanding of thromboembolic risk factors are essential to prevent long-term related morbidities. In addition to specific situations associated with a high risk of thromboembolic events (Fontan circulation, cyanotic congenital heart disease), atrial arrhythmia has been recognized as an important risk factor for thromboembolic events in ACHD. Unlike in patients without ACHD, thromboembolic risk stratification scores, such as the CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, may not be applicable in ACHD. Overall, after a review of the scientific data published so far, it is clear that the complexity of the underlying congenital heart disease represents a major risk factor for thromboembolic events. As a consequence, prophylactic anticoagulation is indicated in patients with complex congenital heart disease and atrial arrhythmia, regardless of the other risk factors, as opposed to simple heart defects. The landscape of ACHD is an ongoing evolving process, and specific thromboembolic risk scores are needed, especially in the setting of simple heart defects; these should be coupled with specific trials or long-term follow-up of multicentre cohorts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A Mw 6.3 earthquake scenario in the city of Nice (southeast France): ground motion simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salichon, Jérome; Kohrs-Sansorny, Carine; Bertrand, Etienne; Courboulex, Françoise

2010-07-01

The southern Alps-Ligurian basin junction is one of the most seismically active zone of the western Europe. A constant microseismicity and moderate size events (3.5 < M < 5) are regularly recorded. The last reported historical event took place in February 1887 and reached an estimated magnitude between 6 and 6.5, causing human losses and extensive damages (intensity X, Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik). Such an event, occurring nowadays, could have critical consequences given the high density of population living on the French and Italian Riviera. We study the case of an offshore Mw 6.3 earthquake located at the place where two moderate size events (Mw 4.5) occurred recently and where a morphotectonic feature has been detected by a bathymetric survey. We used a stochastic empirical Green’s functions (EGFs) summation method to produce a population of realistic accelerograms on rock and soil sites in the city of Nice. The ground motion simulations are calibrated on a rock site with a set of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) in order to estimate a reasonable stress-drop ratio between the February 25th, 2001, Mw 4.5, event taken as an EGF and the target earthquake. Our results show that the combination of the GMPEs and EGF techniques is an interesting tool for site-specific strong ground motion estimation.

Sea Urchin Morphogenesis.

PubMed

McClay, David R

2016-01-01

In the sea urchin morphogenesis follows extensive molecular specification. The specification controls the many morphogenetic events and these, in turn, precede patterning steps that establish the larval body plan. To understand how the embryo is built it was necessary to understand those series of molecular steps. Here an example of the historical sequence of those discoveries is presented as it unfolded over the last 50 years, the years during which major progress in understanding development of many animals and plants was documented by CTDB. In sea urchin development a rich series of experimental studies first established many of the phenomenological components of skeletal morphogenesis and patterning without knowledge of the molecular components. The many discoveries of transcription factors, signals, and structural proteins that contribute to the shape of the endoskeleton of the sea urchin larva then followed as molecular tools became available. A number of transcription factors and signals were discovered that were necessary for specification, morphogenesis, and patterning. Perturbation of the transcription factors and signals provided the means for assembling models of the gene regulatory networks used for specification and controlled the subsequent morphogenetic events. The earlier experimental information informed perturbation experiments that asked how patterning worked. As a consequence it was learned that ectoderm provides a series of patterning signals to the skeletogenic cells and as a consequence the skeletogenic cells secrete a highly patterned skeleton based on their ability to genotypically decode the localized reception of several signals. We still do not understand the complexity of the signals received by the skeletogenic cells, nor do we understand in detail how the genotypic information shapes the secreted skeletal biomineral, but the current knowledge at least outlines the sequence of events and provides a useful template for future discoveries. © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Obstructive sleep apnea in Down syndrome: Benefits of surgery and noninvasive respiratory support.

PubMed

Dudoignon, Benjamin; Amaddeo, Alessandro; Frapin, Annick; Thierry, Briac; de Sanctis, Livio; Arroyo, Jorge Olmo; Khirani, Sonia; Fauroux, Brigitte

2017-08-01

Children with Down syndrome are at increased risk of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). The aim of the study was to describe the management of OSA in a large cohort of children with Down syndrome. A retrospective analysis of sleep studies and consequent management was performed for all consecutive Down syndrome patients evaluated between September 2013 and April 2016. The data of 57 patients were analyzed: 51/53 had an interpretable overnight polygraphy and 4 the recording of nocturnal gas exchange. Mean age at baseline sleep study was 6.2 ± 5.9 years. Eighteen patients (32%) had prior upper airway surgery. Mean apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) was 14 ± 16 events/hr with 41 of the 51 (80%) patients having OSA with an AHI >1 event/hr and 20 patients (39%) having an AHI ≥10 events/hr. Consequently, eight patients (14%) had upper airway surgery. OSA improved in all patients except two who needed noninvasive respiratory support. Nineteen (33%) patients required noninvasive respiratory support. Mean age at noninvasive respiratory support initiation was 7 ± 7 years. On 11 patients with objective adherence data available, mean compliance at 2 ± 1 years of treatment was excellent with an average use per night of 8 hr46 ± 3 hr59 and 9 patients using the noninvasive respiratory support >4 hr/night. Noninvasive respiratory support was associated with an improvement of nocturnal gas exchange. The prevalence of OSA is high in Down syndrome. Upper airway surgery is not always able to correct OSA. Noninvasive respiratory support represents then an effective treatment for OSA and good compliance may be achieved in a majority of patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Modeling of induced seismicity and ground vibrations associated with geologic CO 2 storage, and assessing their effects on surface structures and human perception

DOE PAGES

Rutqvist, Jonny; Cappa, Frédéric; Rinaldi, Antonio P.; ...

2014-05-01

In this paper, we present model simulations of ground motions caused by CO 2 -injection-induced fault reactivation and analyze the results in terms of the potential for damage to ground surface structures and nuisance to the local human population. It is an integrated analysis from cause to consequence, including the whole chain of processes starting from earthquake inception in the subsurface, wave propagation toward the ground surface, and assessment of the consequences of ground vibration. For a small magnitude (M w =3) event at a hypocenter depth of about 1000m, we first used the simulated ground-motion wave train in anmore » inverse analysis to estimate source parameters (moment magnitude, rupture dimensions and stress drop), achieving good agreement and thereby verifying the modeling of the chain of processes from earthquake inception to ground vibration. We then analyzed the ground vibration results in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and frequency content, with comparison to U.S. Geological Survey's instrumental intensity scales for earthquakes and the U.S. Bureau of Mines' vibration criteria for cosmetic damage to buildings, as well as human-perception vibration limits. Our results confirm the appropriateness of using PGV (rather than PGA) and frequency for the evaluation of potential ground-vibration effects on structures and humans from shallow injection-induced seismic events. For the considered synthetic M w =3 event, our analysis showed that the short duration, high frequency ground motion may not cause any significant damage to surface structures, but would certainly be felt by the local population.« less

Application of fuzzy fault tree analysis based on modified fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS for fire and explosion in the process industry.

PubMed

Yazdi, Mohammad; Korhan, Orhan; Daneshvar, Sahand

2018-05-09

This study aimed at establishing fault tree analysis (FTA) using expert opinion to compute the probability of an event. To find the probability of the top event (TE), all probabilities of the basic events (BEs) should be available when the FTA is drawn. In this case, employing expert judgment can be used as an alternative to failure data in an awkward situation. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process as a standard technique is used to give a specific weight to each expert, and fuzzy set theory is engaged for aggregating expert opinion. In this regard, the probability of BEs will be computed and, consequently, the probability of the TE obtained using Boolean algebra. Additionally, to reduce the probability of the TE in terms of three parameters (safety consequences, cost and benefit), the importance measurement technique and modified TOPSIS was employed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real-life case study.

In Building a Script for an Emotion, Do Preschoolers Add Its Cause before Its Behavior Consequence?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Widen, Sherri C.; Russell, James A.

2011-01-01

An emotion concept is a script in which an emotion event is an ordered sequence of subevents from situational cause through bodily changes to behavioral consequence. As children build a script for each emotion, in what order do they add each subevent? Preschoolers (N = 108, three to five years), were asked to name the protagonist's emotion in…

Managing ecological drought and flood within a nature-based approach. Reality or illusion?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir, Rares; Finger, David; Stolte, Jannes

2017-04-01

Water hazards events, emphasized by an improperly implemented water management, may lead to ecological degradation of ecosystems. Traditional water management has generally sought to dampen the natural variability of water flows in different types of ecosystems to attain steady and dependable water supplies for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation, navigation, and hydropower, and to moderate extreme water conditions such as floods and droughts. Ecological drought can be defined as a prolonged and widespread deficit in available water supplies — including changes in natural and managed hydrology — that create multiple stresses across ecosystems, becomes a critical concern among researchers being a phenomenon much more complex than the other types of drought and requesting a specific approach. The impact of drought on ecosystem services lead to the necessity of identifying and implementing eco-reclamation measures which can generate better ecological answers to droughts. Ecological flood is the type of flood analyzed in full consideration with ecological issues, in the analyze process being approached 4 key aspects: connectivity of water system, landscapes of river and lakes, mobility of water bodies, and safety of flood control. As a consequence, both ecological drought and ecological flood represents high challenges for ecological sustainable water management in the process of identifying structural and non-structural measures for covering human demands without causing affected ecosystems to degrade or simplify. An ecological flood and drought control system will combine both the needs of the ecosystems as well as and flood and drought control measures. The components ecosystems' natural flow regime defined by magnitude, frequency, duration and peak timing (high or low flows) interact to maintain the ecosystem productivity. This productivity can be impaired by altered flow regimes generally due to structural measures designed to control flooding. However, from an ecological perspective, floods are not disasters in the sense that human society typically views them. Considering all previous aspects, it is clear that events like floods and droughts can't be avoided, but the hydrological extremes related to these events can be sustainable managed using a series of actions based on two inter-connected approaches: prevention approach and post-event management approach. The main objective remains the necessity of limiting the consequences of water hazards on socio-economic sectors but also the need of quickly and sustainable recovering after an event like this. However, the question still remains valid: Ecological flood and ecological drought can be managed through a nature-based approach? This paper will focus on a theoretical analysis of these "ecological" hydro-meteorological events and will debate a possible nature-based approach for their sustainable management.

On the relation of earthquake stress drop and ground motion variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oth, Adrien; Miyake, Hiroe; Bindi, Dino

2017-07-01

One of the key parameters for earthquake source physics is stress drop since it can be directly linked to the spectral level of ground motion. Stress drop estimates from moment corner frequency analysis have been shown to be extremely variable, and this to a much larger degree than expected from the between-event ground motion variability. This discrepancy raises the question whether classically determined stress drop variability is too large, which would have significant consequences for seismic hazard analysis. We use a large high-quality data set from Japan with well-studied stress drop data to address this issue. Nonparametric and parametric reference ground motion models are derived, and the relation of between-event residuals for Japan Meteorological Agency equivalent seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration with stress drop is analyzed for crustal earthquakes. We find a clear correlation of the between-event residuals with stress drops estimates; however, while the island of Kyushu is characterized by substantially larger stress drops than Honshu, the between-event residuals do not reflect this observation, leading to the appearance of two event families with different stress drop levels yet similar range of between-event residuals. Both the within-family and between-family stress drop variations are larger than expected from the ground motion between-event variability. A systematic common analysis of these parameters holds the potential to provide important constraints on the relative robustness of different groups of data in the different parameter spaces and to improve our understanding on how much of the observed source parameter variability is likely to be true source physics variability.

The Age of Terrestrial Carbon Export and Rainfall Intensity in a Temperate River Headwater System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tittel, J.; Büttner, O.; Freier, K.; Heiser, A.; Sudbrack, R.; Ollesch, G.

2013-12-01

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) supports the production of estuaries and coastal ecosystems, constituting one of the most actively recycled pools of the global carbon cycle. A substantial proportion of DOC entering oceans is highly aged, but its origins remain unclear. Significant fluxes of old DOC have never been observed in temperate headwaters where terrestrial imports take place. Here, we studied the radiocarbon age of DOC in three streams draining forested headwater catchments of the river Mulde (Ore Mountains, Germany). We found modern DOC at moderately dry and moderately wet conditions as well as at high discharges during snowmelt. Old groundwater carbon contributed to stream DOC during the summer drought, although the yield was negligible. However, in a four-week summer precipitation event DOC aged at between 160 and 270 years was delivered into the watershed. In one stream, the DOC was modern but depleted in radiocarbon compared to other hydrological conditions. The yield was substantial and corresponded to 20 to 52% of the annual DOC yields in wet and dry years, respectively. Time-integrating samples of a downstream reservoir also revealed modern DOC ages under moderate conditions and old DOC from the rainfall event. Earlier studies suggested that increasing precipitation escalates the contribution of modern DOC from topsoil layers to surface runoff. Our results demonstrate a step change occurring if rainfall intensities increase and become extreme; then the consequences lead to the mobilization of old carbon in exceptionally high concentrations. The runoff/precipitation ratios of rainfall events indicated that during extreme events upland areas of the catchments were hydrologically connected to the stream and upland DOC was activated. Furthermore, the analysis of long-term data suggested that the DOC export in extreme precipitation events added to the annual yield and was not compensated for by lower exports in remaining periods. We conclude that climate change, along with additional processes associated with human activities, channels old soil carbon into more rapidly cycled carbon pools of the hydrosphere.

A look inside 'black box' hydrograph separation models: A study at the hydrohill catchment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, C.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Gu, W.

2001-01-01

Runoff sources and dominant flowpaths are still poorly understood in most catchments; consequently, most hydrograph separations are essentially 'black box' models where only external information is used. The well-instrumented 490 m2 Hydrohill artificial grassland catchment located near Nanjing (China) was used to examine internal catchment processes. Since groundwater levels never reach the soil surface at this site, two physically distinct flowpaths can unambiguously be defined: surface and subsurface runoff. This study combines hydrometric, isotopic and geochemical approaches to investigating the relations between the chloride, silica, and oxygen isotopic compositions of subsurface waters and rainfall. During a 120 mm storm over a 24 h period in 1989, 55% of event water input infiltrated and added to soil water storage; the remainder ran off as infiltration-excess overland flow. Only about 3-5% of the pre-event water was displaced out of the catchment by in-storm rainfall. About 80% of the total flow was quickflow, and 10% of the total flow was pre-event water, mostly derived from saturated flow from deeper soils. Rain water with high ??18O values from the beginning of the storm appeared to be preferentially stored in shallow soils. Groundwater at the end of the storm shows a wide range of isotopic and chemical compositions, primarily reflecting the heterogeneous distribution of the new and mixed pore waters. High chloride and silica concentrations in quickflow runoff derived from event water indicate that these species are not suitable conservative tracers of either water sources or flowpaths in this catchment. Determining the proportion of event water alone does not constrain the possible hydrologic mechanisms sufficiently to distinguish subsurface and surface flowpaths uniquely, even in this highly controlled artificial catchment. We reconcile these findings with a perceptual model of stormflow sources and flowpaths that explicitly accounts for water, isotopic, and chemical mass balance. Copyright ?? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High-Resolution Analysis of the Efficiency, Heritability, and Editing Outcomes of CRISPR/Cas9-Induced Modifications of NCED4 in Lettuce (Lactuca sativa).

PubMed

Bertier, Lien D; Ron, Mily; Huo, Heqiang; Bradford, Kent J; Britt, Anne B; Michelmore, Richard W

2018-05-04

CRISPR/Cas9 is a transformative tool for making targeted genetic alterations. In plants, high mutation efficiencies have been reported in primary transformants. However, many of the mutations analyzed were somatic and therefore not heritable. To provide more insights into the efficiency of creating stable homozygous mutants using CRISPR/Cas9, we targeted LsNCED4 ( 9-cis-EPOXYCAROTENOID DIOXYGENASE4) , a gene conditioning thermoinhibition of seed germination in lettuce. Three constructs, each capable of expressing Cas9 and a single gRNA targeting different sites in LsNCED4 , were stably transformed into lettuce (Lactuca sativa) cvs. Salinas and Cobham Green. Analysis of 47 primary transformants (T 1 ) and 368 T 2 plants by deep amplicon sequencing revealed that 57% of T 1 plants contained events at the target site: 28% of plants had germline mutations in one allele indicative of an early editing event (mono-allelic), 8% of plants had germline mutations in both alleles indicative of two early editing events (bi-allelic), and the remaining 21% of plants had multiple low frequency mutations indicative of late events (chimeric plants). Editing efficiency was similar in both genotypes, while the different gRNAs varied in efficiency. Amplicon sequencing of 20 T 1 and more than 100 T 2 plants for each of the three gRNAs showed that repair outcomes were not random, but reproducible and characteristic for each gRNA. Knockouts of NCED4 resulted in large increases in the maximum temperature for seed germination, with seeds of both cultivars capable of germinating >70% at 37°. Knockouts of NCED4 provide a whole-plant selectable phenotype that has minimal pleiotropic consequences. Targeting NCED4 in a co-editing strategy could therefore be used to enrich for germline-edited events simply by germinating seeds at high temperature. Copyright © 2018 Bertier et al.

High-Resolution Analysis of the Efficiency, Heritability, and Editing Outcomes of CRISPR/Cas9-Induced Modifications of NCED4 in Lettuce (Lactuca sativa)

PubMed Central

Bertier, Lien D.; Ron, Mily; Huo, Heqiang; Bradford, Kent J.; Britt, Anne B.; Michelmore, Richard W.

2018-01-01

CRISPR/Cas9 is a transformative tool for making targeted genetic alterations. In plants, high mutation efficiencies have been reported in primary transformants. However, many of the mutations analyzed were somatic and therefore not heritable. To provide more insights into the efficiency of creating stable homozygous mutants using CRISPR/Cas9, we targeted LsNCED4 (9-cis-EPOXYCAROTENOID DIOXYGENASE4), a gene conditioning thermoinhibition of seed germination in lettuce. Three constructs, each capable of expressing Cas9 and a single gRNA targeting different sites in LsNCED4, were stably transformed into lettuce (Lactuca sativa) cvs. Salinas and Cobham Green. Analysis of 47 primary transformants (T1) and 368 T2 plants by deep amplicon sequencing revealed that 57% of T1 plants contained events at the target site: 28% of plants had germline mutations in one allele indicative of an early editing event (mono-allelic), 8% of plants had germline mutations in both alleles indicative of two early editing events (bi-allelic), and the remaining 21% of plants had multiple low frequency mutations indicative of late events (chimeric plants). Editing efficiency was similar in both genotypes, while the different gRNAs varied in efficiency. Amplicon sequencing of 20 T1 and more than 100 T2 plants for each of the three gRNAs showed that repair outcomes were not random, but reproducible and characteristic for each gRNA. Knockouts of NCED4 resulted in large increases in the maximum temperature for seed germination, with seeds of both cultivars capable of germinating >70% at 37°. Knockouts of NCED4 provide a whole-plant selectable phenotype that has minimal pleiotropic consequences. Targeting NCED4 in a co-editing strategy could therefore be used to enrich for germline-edited events simply by germinating seeds at high temperature. PMID:29511025

Constructive and Unconstructive Repetitive Thought

PubMed Central

Watkins, Edward R.

2008-01-01

The author reviews research showing that repetitive thought (RT) can have constructive or unconstructive consequences. The main unconstructive consequences of RT are (a) depression, (b) anxiety, and (c) difficulties in physical health. The main constructive consequences of RT are (a) recovery from upsetting and traumatic events, (b) adaptive preparation and anticipatory planning, (c) recovery from depression, and (d) uptake of health-promoting behaviors. Several potential principles accounting for these distinct consequences of RT are identified within this review: (a) the valence of thought content, (b) the intrapersonal and situational context in which RT occurs, and (c) the level of construal (abstract vs. concrete processing) adopted during RT. Of the existing models of RT, it is proposed that an elaborated version of the control theory account provides the best theoretical framework to account for its distinct consequences. PMID:18298268

Lived experiences of women who developed uterine rupture following severe obstructed labor in Mulago hospital, Uganda

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Maternal mortality is a major public health challenge in Uganda. Whereas uterine rupture remains a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality, there is limited research into what happens to women who survive such severe obstetric complications. Understanding their experiences might delineate strategies to support survivors. Methods This qualitative study used a phenomenological approach to explore lived experiences of women who developed uterine rupture following obstructed labor. In-depth interviews initially conducted during their hospitalization were repeated 3–6 months after the childbirth event to explore their health and meanings they attached to the traumatic events and their outcomes. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Results The resultant themes included barriers to access healthcare, multiple “losses” and enduring physical, psychosocial and economic consequences. Many women who develop uterine rupture fail to access critical care needed due to failure to recognise danger signs of obstructed labor, late decision making for accessing care, geographical barriers to health facilities, late or failure to diagnose obstructed labor at health facilities, and failure to promptly perform caesarean section. Secondly, the sequel of uterine rupture includes several losses (loss of lives, loss of fertility, loss of body image, poor quality of life and disrupted marital relationships). Thirdly, uterine rupture has grim economic consequences for the survivors (with financial loss and loss of income during and after the calamitous events). Conclusion Uterine rupture is associated with poor quality of care due to factors that operate at personal, household, family, community and society levels, and results in dire physical, psychosocial and financial consequences for survivors. There is need to improve access to and provision of emergency obstetric care in order to prevent uterine rupture consequent to obstructed labor. There is also critical need to provide counselling and support to survivors to enable them cope with physical, social, psychological and economic consequences. PMID:24758354

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Freifeld, Barry; Oldenburg, Curtis; Jordan, Preston

The 2015-2016 Aliso Canyon/Porter Ranch natural gas well blowout emitted approximately 100,000 tonnes of natural gas (mostly methane, CH 4) over four months. The blowout impacted thousands of nearby residents, who were displaced from their homes. The high visibility of the event has led to increased scrutiny of the safety of natural gas storage at the Aliso Canyon facility, as well as broader concern for natural gas storage integrity throughout the country. This report presents the findings of the DOE National Laboratories Well Integrity Work Group efforts in the four tasks. In addition to documenting the work of the Workmore » Group, this report presents high priority recommendations to improve well integrity and reduce the likelihood and consequences of subsurface natural gas leaks.« less

Structural and Network-based Methods for Knowledge-Based Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

depth) provide important information about knowledge gaps in the KB. For example, if SuccessEstimate (causes-EventEvent, Typhoid - Fever , 1, 3) is...equal to 0, it points toward lack of biological knowledge about Typhoid - Fever in our KB. Similar information can also be obtained from the...position of the consequent. ⋃ ( ( ) ) Therefore, if Q does not contain Typhoid - Fever , then obtaining

Compelling Evidence of the Need for Corporate Work/Life Balance Initiatives: Results from a National Survey of Stressful Life-Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobson, Charles J.; Delunas, Linda; Kesic, Dawn

2001-01-01

Considers how failure to balance excessive work and life/family demands can lead to negative consequences for both individuals and organizations, including higher stress levels, increased absenteeism, and lower productivity. Discusses results of a survey on stressful life events that offers an explanation of why work/life balance programs are so…

Bank robberies: A psychological protocol of intervention in financial institutions and principal effects.

PubMed

Tabanelli, Maria Carla; Bonfiglioli, Roberta; Violante, Francesco S

2013-03-26

BACKGROUND: Robbery in workplaces represents a potentially traumatic experience for workers. OBJECTIVES: This article describes the set up and evaluation of a comprehensive psychological intervention designed to help to reduce the adverse consequences of bank robberies. PARTICIPANTS: The study population was selected among the employees of two Italian banks.METHODS: The psychological protocol was designed according to the results of a comprehensive non-systematic review of the scientific literature and it was evaluated at work site. RESULTS: The protocol consists of a "pre-event" formative intervention and "post-event" psychological support. The qualitative data collected allowed us to understand that the reactions after a robbery can differ depending on the phase during which the workers were exposed to the robbery. We noted that the main consequences can be classified in emotional/sentimental reactions, behavioral reactions, physiological reactions and experiences during the event; emotions/feelings following the robbery and psycho/physical state and emotions/feelings in the following days.CONCLUSIONS: In a working environment, the chance to take advantage of a specific protocol for the traumatic event of a bank robbery offers both the company and the workers important tools for well-being, including post-robbery psychological support and classroom instructions.

A Bernoulli Formulation of the Land-Use Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Champion, Richard A.

2008-01-01

Decision making for natural-hazards mitigation can be sketched as knowledge available in advance (a priori), knowledge available later (a posteriori), and how consequences of the mitigation decision might be viewed once future outcomes are known. Two outcomes - mitigating for a hazard event that will occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur - can be considered narrowly correct. Two alternative outcomes - mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will occur - can be considered narrowly incorrect. The dilemma facing the decision maker is that mitigation choices must be made before the event, and often must be made with imperfect statistical techniques and imperfect data.

Hemorheological alterations in sickle cell anemia and their clinical consequences - The role of genetic modulators.

PubMed

Silva, Marisa; Vargas, Sofia; Coelho, Andreia; Dias, Alexandra; Ferreira, Teresa; Morais, Anabela; Maia, Raquel; Kjöllerström, Paula; Lavinha, João; Faustino, Paula

2016-01-01

Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is an autosomal recessive disease caused by the HBB:c.20A>T mutation that leads to hemoglobin S synthesis. The disease presents with high clinical heterogeneity characterized by chronic hemolysis, recurrent episodes of vaso-oclusion and infection. This work aimed to characterize by in silico studies some genetic modulators of severe hemolysis and stroke risk in children with SCA, and understand their consequences at the hemorheological level.Association studies were performed between hemolysis biomarkers as well as the degree of cerebral vasculopathy and the inheritance of several polymorphic regions in genes related with vascular cell adhesion and vascular tonus in pediatric SCA patients. In silico tools (e.g. MatInspector) were applied to investigate the main variant consequences.Variants in vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM1) gene promoter and endothelial nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) gene were significantly associated with higher degree of hemolysis and stroke events. They potentially modify transcription factor binding sites (e.g. VCAM1 rs1409419_T allele may lead to an EVI1 gain) or disturb the corresponding protein structure/function. Our findings emphasize the relevance of genetic variation in modulating the disease severity due to their effect on gene expression or modification of protein biological activities related with sickled erythrocyte/endothelial interactions and consequent hemorheological abnormalities.

Near-Surface Geophysical Mapping of the Hydrological Response to an Intense Rainfall Event at the Field Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez, G.; Vanderlinden, K.; Giraldez, J. V.; Espejo, A. J.; Muriel, J. L.

2009-12-01

Soil moisture plays an important role in a wide variety of biogeochemical fluxes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system and governs the (eco)hydrological response of a catchment to an external forcing such as rainfall. Near-surface electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors that measure the soil apparent electrical conductivity (ECa) provide a fast and non-invasive means for characterizing this response at the field or catchment scale through high-resolution time-lapse mapping. Here we show how ECa maps, obtained before and after an intense rainfall event of 125 mm h-1, elucidate differences in soil moisture patterns and hydrologic response of an experimental field as a consequence of differed soil management. The dryland field (Vertisol) was located in SW Spain and cropped with a typical wheat-sunflower-legume rotation. Both, near-surface and subsurface ECa (ECas and ECad, respectively), were measured using the EM38-DD EMI sensor in a mobile configuration. Raw ECa measurements and Mean Relative Differences (MRD) provided information on soil moisture patterns while time-lapse maps were used to evaluate the hydrologic response of the field. ECa maps of the field, measured before and after the rainfall event showed similar patterns. The field depressions where most of water and sediments accumulated had the highest ECa and MRD values. The SE-oriented soil, which was deeper and more exposed to sun and wind, showed the lowest ECa and MRD. The largest differences raised in the central part of the field where a high ECa and MRD area appeared after the rainfall event as a consequence of the smaller soil depth and a possible subsurface flux concentration. Time-lapse maps of both ECa and MRD were also similar. The direct drill plots showed higher increments of ECa and MRD as a result of the smaller runoff production. Time-lapse ECa increments showed a bimodal distribution differentiating clearly the direct drill from the conventional and minimum tillage plots. However this kind of distribution could not be shown using MRD differences since they come from standardized distributions. Field-extend time-lapse ECa maps can provide useful images of the hydrological response of agricultural fields which can be used to evaluate different soil management strategies or to aid the assessment of biogeochemical fluxes at the field scale.

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.

2015-12-03

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insightsmore » from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of grid modernization activities. The availability of a grid HILF risk model, integrated across multi-hazard domains which, when interrogated, can support transparent, defensible and effective decisions, is an attractive prospect among these communities. In this report, we document an integrated HILF risk framework intended to inform the development of risk models. These models would be based on the systematic and comprehensive (to within scope) characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk, identification of the stressors associated with the hazards (i.e., the means of impacting grid and supporting infrastructure), characterization of the vulnerability of assets to these stressors and the probabilities of asset compromise, the grid’s dynamic response to the asset failures, and assessment of subsequent severities of consequence with respect to selected impact metrics, such as power outage duration and geographic reach. Specifically, the current framework is being developed to;1. Provide the conceptual and overarching technical paradigms for the development of risk models; 2. Identify the classes of models required to implement the framework - providing examples of existing models, and also identifying where modeling gaps exist; 3. Identify the types of data required, addressing circumstances under which data are sparse and the formal elicitation of informed judgment might be required; and 4. Identify means by which the resultant risk models might be interrogated to form the necessary basis for risk management.« less

Pesticide leaching by agricultural drainage in sloping, mid-textured soil conditions - the role of runoff components.

PubMed

Zajíček, Antonín; Fučík, Petr; Kaplická, Markéta; Liška, Marek; Maxová, Jana; Dobiáš, Jakub

2018-04-01

Dynamics of pesticides and their metabolites in drainage waters during baseflow periods and rainfall-runoff events (RREs) were studied from 2014 to 2016 at three small, tile-drained agricultural catchments in Bohemian-Moravian Highlands, Czech Republic. Drainage systems in this region are typically built in slopes with considerable proportion of drainage runoff originating outside the drained area itself. Continuous monitoring was performed by automated samplers, and the event hydrograph was separated using 18 O and 2 H isotopes and drainage water temperature. Results showed that drainage systems represent a significant source for pesticides leaching from agricultural land. Leaching of pesticide metabolites was mainly associated with baseflow and shallow interflow. Water from causal precipitation diluted their concentrations. The prerequisites for the leaching of parental compounds were a rainfall-runoff event occurring shortly after spraying, and the presence of event water in the runoff. When such situations happened consequently, pesticides concentrations in drainage water were high and the pesticide load reached several grams in a few hours. Presented results introduce new insights into the processes of pesticides movement in small, tile-drained catchments and emphasizes the need to incorporate drainage hydrology and flow-triggered sampling into monitoring programmes in larger catchments as well as in environment-conservation policy.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into themore » probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.« less

Climatology of atmospheric circulation patterns of Arabian dust in western Iran.

PubMed

Najafi, Mohammad Saeed; Sarraf, B S; Zarrin, A; Rasouli, A A

2017-08-28

Being in vicinity of vast deserts, the west and southwest of Iran are characterized by high levels of dust events, which have adverse consequences on human health, ecosystems, and environment. Using ground based dataset of dust events in western Iran and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the atmospheric circulation patterns of dust events in the Arabian region and west of Iran are identified. The atmospheric circulation patterns which lead to dust events in the Arabian region and western Iran were classified into two main categories: the Shamal dust events that occurs in warm period of year and the frontal dust events as cold period pattern. In frontal dust events, the western trough or blocking pattern at mid-level leads to frontogenesis, instability, and air uplift at lower levels of troposphere in the southwest of Asia. Non-frontal is other pattern of dust event in the cold period and dust generation are due to the regional circulation systems at the lower level of troposphere. In Shamal wind pattern, the Saudi Arabian anticyclone, Turkmenistan anticyclone, and Zagros thermal low play the key roles in formation of this pattern. Summer and transitional patterns are two sub-categories of summer Shamal wind pattern. In summer trough pattern, the mid-tropospheric trough leads to intensify the surface thermal systems in the Middle East and causes instability and rising of wind speed in the region. In synthetic pattern of Shamal wind and summer trough, dust is created by the impact of a trough in mid-levels of troposphere as well as existing the mentioned regional systems which are contributed in formation of summer Shamal wind pattern.

The Bisagno stream catchment (Genoa, Italy) and its major floods: geomorphic and land use variations in the last three centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faccini, Francesco; Paliaga, Guido; Piana, Pietro; Sacchini, Alessandro; Watkins, Charles

2016-11-01

The city of Genoa (Liguria, Italy) and the Bisagno Valley are affected by frequent floods, often with loss of human lives. Historically characterised by high flood hazards, the Bisagno Valley was recently affected by a flood event on 9 October 2014, less than three years after the tragic flood event of 4 November 2011 when six people died, including two children. In the last 50 years, four destructive floods occurred in the Bisagno Valley, in addition to some other events that caused significant damage and economic losses. This paper examines the three largest flood events in terms of intensity and ground effects which affected the Bisagno Valley in the last three centuries: the flood of 25 October 1822, well documented by contemporary sources, the flood of 8 October 1970, undoubtedly the most tragic on record, and the very recent event of 9 October 2014. For this purpose scientific and historical-geographical methodologies were adopted, the latter particularly useful for the reconstruction of the flood event of 1822 and the landscape history of the Bisagno Valley in the nineteenth century. This comparison shows that the Bisagno Valley is characterised by climatic and landform features that have been making the flood events historically common in the area. However, recent climate change and land-use variations, including some major modifications of the catchment basin, have progressively determined a decrease of the concentration time and an increase of runoff, solid transport, and flood hazard. Consequently, in recent decades a growth in the number of flood events occurred, to the extent that the Bisagno today is a famous case study on an international scale.

Increased frequency of extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events due to greenhouse warming.

PubMed

Cai, Wenju; Santoso, Agus; Wang, Guojian; Weller, Evan; Wu, Lixin; Ashok, Karumuri; Masumoto, Yukio; Yamagata, Toshio

2014-06-12

The Indian Ocean dipole is a prominent mode of coupled ocean-atmosphere variability, affecting the lives of millions of people in Indian Ocean rim countries. In its positive phase, sea surface temperatures are lower than normal off the Sumatra-Java coast, but higher in the western tropical Indian Ocean. During the extreme positive-IOD (pIOD) events of 1961, 1994 and 1997, the eastern cooling strengthened and extended westward along the equatorial Indian Ocean through strong reversal of both the mean westerly winds and the associated eastward-flowing upper ocean currents. This created anomalously dry conditions from the eastern to the central Indian Ocean along the Equator and atmospheric convergence farther west, leading to catastrophic floods in eastern tropical African countries but devastating droughts in eastern Indian Ocean rim countries. Despite these serious consequences, the response of pIOD events to greenhouse warming is unknown. Here, using an ensemble of climate models forced by a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we project that the frequency of extreme pIOD events will increase by almost a factor of three, from one event every 17.3 years over the twentieth century to one event every 6.3 years over the twenty-first century. We find that a mean state change--with weakening of both equatorial westerly winds and eastward oceanic currents in association with a faster warming in the western than the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean--facilitates more frequent occurrences of wind and oceanic current reversal. This leads to more frequent extreme pIOD events, suggesting an increasing frequency of extreme climate and weather events in regions affected by the pIOD.

Journalists' Occupational Stress: A Comparative Study between Reporting Critical Events and Domestic News.

PubMed

Monteiro, Susana; Marques-Pinto, Alexandra

2017-07-27

Nowadays, journalism is considered a stressful occupation, not only due to the stress perceived in journalists' daily work but also due to the critical, potentially traumatic events they report. However, research on journalists' occupational stress in both these professional settings is still scarce. This study aims to characterize and compare occupational stress variables perceived by journalists in their daily work and in critical scenarios. Taking the Holistic Model of Occupational Stress by Nelson and Simmons (2003) as a framework, 25 Portuguese journalists, all with experience in reporting critical events, were interviewed on their perceptions of some core variables of the model: occupational stressors, distress and eustress emotional reactions, and the consequences of these experiences on their well-being. Differences among these core variables, according to the number of deployments to a critical event, were statistically analysed in order to ascertain whether repeated exposure to trauma influenced journalists' occupational stress perceptions. The data content analysis showed that occupational stressors and emotional reactions differed across settings, while the consequences associated with journalists' experiences were perceived as being mainly negative in both occupational contexts. Significant differences were identified in some of these variables according to the number of deployments to a critical event (p < .05). These findings may contribute to a reflection on the role of media organizations in preparing and supporting journalists in their work performance, and on the promotion of occupational health within the scope of journalists' daily work and critical events. The article closes with considerations for future studies.

Contributions of Contingencies in Modern Societies to “Privacy” in the Behavioral Relations of Cognition and Emotion

PubMed Central

Tourinho, Emmanuel Zagury; Borba, Aécio; Vichi, Christian; Leite, Felipe Lustosa

2011-01-01

The aim of this paper is to examine specific features of modern individualistic societies that contribute to “emotions” and “cognitions” becoming a matter of privacy. Although some behavior analysts identify emotions and cognitions as “private events,” we argue with Skinner (1945) that cognitions and emotions are relations among events and that their origin is in public events in the contingencies of reinforcement maintained by other people. Guided by Elias (1939/1996), we suggest that the shift from feudal economies to market economies involved the increasing individualization of society's members. This individualizing process includes the socially maintained contingencies that bring some verbal responses under control of private stimulation and reduce the magnitude of some verbal responses to a covert level. Behavioral relations in which either stimuli or responses (or both) cannot be observed by others set the stage for a concept of “privacy.” Changes in societal contingencies that gave rise to individualization and the attribution of privacy to cognitions and emotions are suggested to include the following: (a) increasing frequency of individual consequences that have no apparent or direct relevance to the group; (b) increasing numbers of concurrent contingencies and choice requirements; (c) conflicts between immediate and delayed consequences for the individual; and (d) conflicts between consequences for the individual and for the group. PMID:22532738

Forensic hydro-meteorological analysis of an extreme flash flood: The 2016-05-29 event in Braunsbach, SW Germany.

PubMed

Bronstert, Axel; Agarwal, Ankit; Boessenkool, Berry; Crisologo, Irene; Fischer, Madlen; Heistermann, Maik; Köhn-Reich, Lisei; López-Tarazón, José Andrés; Moran, Thomas; Ozturk, Ugur; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Wendi, Dadiyorto

2018-07-15

The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Land use change in the last century in the Veneto floodplain: effects on network drainage density, water storage, and related consequences on flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prosdocimi, Massimo; Sofia, Giulia; Dalla Fontana, Giancarlo; Tarolli, Paolo

2013-04-01

In a high-density populated country such as Italy, the anthropic pressure plays a fundamental role in the alteration and the modification of the landscape. Among the most evident anthropic alterations, the most important are the urbanization processes that have been occurring since the end of the second world war. Agricultural activities, housing and other land uses have shifted due to the progressive spreading of urban areas. These modifications affect the hydrologic regimes, but municipalities often are not aware of the real impact of land cover changes on such processes and, consequently, an increase of the elements at risk of flooding is generally registered. The main objective of this work is to evaluate the impact of land cover changes in the Veneto region (north-east Italy), from 1954 to 2006, on the minor drainage network system and on its capacity to attenuate the direct runoff. The major flood event occurred between October and November 2010. The study is a typical agrarian landscape and it has been chosen considering its involvement inthe major flood of 2010 and considering also the availability of high-resolution topographic data (LiDAR-derived DTMs) and historical aerial photographs. Aerial photographs dated back to 1954 and 1981, in particular, have been used either to classify the land cover in five categories according to the first level of the CORINE land cover classification and to identify the minor drainage network. A semi-automatic approach based on the high-resolution DTM (Cazorzi et al., 2012), was also considered to identify the minor drainage network and estimate its water storage capacity. The results underline how land cover variation over the last 50 years has strongly increased the propension of the soil to produce direct runoff (increase of the Curve Number value) and it has also reduced the extent of the minor network system. As a consequence, the capacity of the agrarian minor network to attenuate and laminate a flood event is decreased as well. These analysis can be considered useful tools for a suitable land use planning in flood prone areas. References Cazorzi, F., Dalla Fontana, G., De Luca, A., Sofia, G., Tarolli, P. (2012). Drainage network detection and assessment of network storage capacity in agrarian landscape, Hydrological Processes, ISSN: 0885-6087, doi:10.1002/hyp.9224

Spatiotemporal hazard mapping of a flood event "migration" in a transboundary river basin as an operational tool in flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrou, Theodora; Papastergios, Asterios; Parcharidis, Issaak; Chini, Marco

2017-10-01

Flood disaster is one of the heaviest disasters in the world. It is necessary to monitor and evaluate the flood disaster in order to mitigate the consequences. As floods do not recognize borders, transboundary flood risk management is imperative in shared river basins. Disaster management is highly dependent on early information and requires data from the whole river basin. Based on the hypothesis that the flood events over the same area with same magnitude have almost identical evolution, it is crucial to develop a repository database of historical flood events. This tool, in the case of extended transboundary river basins, could constitute an operational warning system for the downstream area. The utility of SAR images for flood mapping, was demonstrated by previous studies but the SAR systems in orbit were not characterized by high operational capacity. Copernicus system will fill this gap in operational service for risk management, especially during emergency phase. The operational capabilities have been significantly improved by newly available satellite constellation, such as the Sentinel-1A AB mission, which is able to provide systematic acquisitions with a very high temporal resolution in a wide swath coverage. The present study deals with the monitoring of a transboundary flood event in Evros basin. The objective of the study is to create the "migration story" of the flooded areas on the basis of the evolution in time for the event occurred from October 2014 till May 2015. Flood hazard maps will be created, using SAR-based semi-automatic algorithms and then through the synthesis of the related maps in a GIS-system, a spatiotemporal thematic map of the event will be produced. The thematic map combined with TanDEM-X DEM, 12m/pixel spatial resolution, will define the non- affected areas which is a very useful information for the emergency planning and emergency response phases. The Sentinels meet the main requirements to be an effective and suitable operational tool in transboundary flood risk management.

The Dynamics of Incomplete Lineage Sorting across the Ancient Adaptive Radiation of Neoavian Birds

PubMed Central

Suh, Alexander; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2015-01-01

The diversification of neoavian birds is one of the most rapid adaptive radiations of extant organisms. Recent whole-genome sequence analyses have much improved the resolution of the neoavian radiation and suggest concurrence with the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary, yet the causes of the remaining genome-level irresolvabilities appear unclear. Here we show that genome-level analyses of 2,118 retrotransposon presence/absence markers converge at a largely consistent Neoaves phylogeny and detect a highly differential temporal prevalence of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), i.e., the persistence of ancestral genetic variation as polymorphisms during speciation events. We found that ILS-derived incongruences are spread over the genome and involve 35% and 34% of the analyzed loci on the autosomes and the Z chromosome, respectively. Surprisingly, Neoaves diversification comprises three adaptive radiations, an initial near-K-Pg super-radiation with highly discordant phylogenetic signals from near-simultaneous speciation events, followed by two post-K-Pg radiations of core landbirds and core waterbirds with much less pronounced ILS. We provide evidence that, given the extreme level of up to 100% ILS per branch in super-radiations, particularly rapid speciation events may neither resemble a fully bifurcating tree nor are they resolvable as such. As a consequence, their complex demographic history is more accurately represented as local networks within a species tree. PMID:26284513

Quantitative assessment of building fire risk to life safety.

PubMed

Guanquan, Chu; Jinhua, Sun

2008-06-01

This article presents a quantitative risk assessment framework for evaluating fire risk to life safety. Fire risk is divided into two parts: probability and corresponding consequence of every fire scenario. The time-dependent event tree technique is used to analyze probable fire scenarios based on the effect of fire protection systems on fire spread and smoke movement. To obtain the variation of occurrence probability with time, Markov chain is combined with a time-dependent event tree for stochastic analysis on the occurrence probability of fire scenarios. To obtain consequences of every fire scenario, some uncertainties are considered in the risk analysis process. When calculating the onset time to untenable conditions, a range of fires are designed based on different fire growth rates, after which uncertainty of onset time to untenable conditions can be characterized by probability distribution. When calculating occupant evacuation time, occupant premovement time is considered as a probability distribution. Consequences of a fire scenario can be evaluated according to probability distribution of evacuation time and onset time of untenable conditions. Then, fire risk to life safety can be evaluated based on occurrence probability and consequences of every fire scenario. To express the risk assessment method in detail, a commercial building is presented as a case study. A discussion compares the assessment result of the case study with fire statistics.

Farm-related injury event, social consequences and injury reporting in the Land Lantbruk newspaper in Sweden: a retrospective study of farm-related injury reporting during 2000-2005.

PubMed

Lundälv, Jörgen

2006-12-01

The aim of the present study was to detect how a leading news paper, the Land Lantbruk in Stockholm, Sweden, informs the public and specifically the rural sector in Sweden and the Scandinavian countries concerning injury events (farm-related injury event) and the use of injury prevention and control. Injury reporting in the Land Lantbruk has been studied from the point of injury prevention and control. A study of injury prevention and rural health and safety in Australia shows that the newspaper The Land that serves Australia's rural community should 'be an under-utilised vehicle for news and commentary on rural health and safety issues'. The study period was from January 2000 to February 2005. A total of 178 articles were reviewed and analysed. The articles were available on a newspaper database in the Land Lantbruk newspaper. Articles that addressed farm-related injury event and rural health and safety were chosen and organised into subgroups. Tractor and motor vehicle safety (35%) was most common among the injury reporting. Although the newspaper Land Lantbruk provided excellent coverage of the causes of these events, the reports tended to focus on circumstances and did not provide information on injury prevention or the advantages of also coverage of the social and psychosocial long-term consequences of accidents. In the prevention work of reducing farm-related injuries in the rural sector in the Scandinavian countries and decreasing the human suffering represented by this health problem, rural politicians, insurance companies, rural authorities and also handicap organisations should listen more to the injured individuals and their own experiences relative to the difficulty of life after an accident. The reaction of family and relatives, and experiences of the long-term social consequences, have not been included in the media coverage. Journalists at the Land Lantbruk could also share experiences of the Swedish coverage of rural health and safety from Australian journalists from The Land.

Consequence analysis in LPG installation using an integrated computer package.

PubMed

Ditali, S; Colombi, M; Moreschini, G; Senni, S

2000-01-07

This paper presents the prototype of the computer code, Atlantide, developed to assess the consequences associated with accidental events that can occur in a LPG storage plant. The characteristic of Atlantide is to be simple enough but at the same time adequate to cope with consequence analysis as required by Italian legislation in fulfilling the Seveso Directive. The application of Atlantide is appropriate for LPG storage/transferring installations. The models and correlations implemented in the code are relevant to flashing liquid releases, heavy gas dispersion and other typical phenomena such as BLEVE/Fireball. The computer code allows, on the basis of the operating/design characteristics, the study of the relevant accidental events from the evaluation of the release rate (liquid, gaseous and two-phase) in the unit involved, to the analysis of the subsequent evaporation and dispersion, up to the assessment of the final phenomena of fire and explosion. This is done taking as reference simplified Event Trees which describe the evolution of accidental scenarios, taking into account the most likely meteorological conditions, the different release situations and other features typical of a LPG installation. The limited input data required and the automatic linking between the single models, that are activated in a defined sequence, depending on the accidental event selected, minimize both the time required for the risk analysis and the possibility of errors. Models and equations implemented in Atlantide have been selected from public literature or in-house developed software and tailored with the aim to be easy to use and fast to run but, nevertheless, able to provide realistic simulation of the accidental event as well as reliable results, in terms of physical effects and hazardous areas. The results have been compared with those of other internationally recognized codes and with the criteria adopted by Italian authorities to verify the Safety Reports for LPG installations. A brief of the theoretical basis of each model implemented in Atlantide and an example of application are included in the paper.

Impact of Atmospheric Blocking on South America in Austral Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Regina; Woollings, Tim

2017-04-01

In this study, we investigate atmospheric blocking over east South America in austral summer for the period of 1979-2014. Our results show that blocking over this area is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves that grow to large amplitudes and eventually break anticyclonically over subtropical South America (SSA). The SSA blocking can prevent the establishment of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). As such, years with more blocking days coincide with years with fewer SACZ days and reduced precipitation. Convection mainly over the Indian Ocean associated with Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases 1 and 2 can trigger the wave train that leads to SSA blocking whereas convection over the western/central Pacific associated with phases 6 and 7 is more likely to lead to SACZ events. We find that MJO is a key source of long-term variability in SSA blocking frequency. The wave packets associated with SSA blocking and SACZ episodes differ not only in their origin but also in their phase and refraction pattern. The tropopause-based methodology used here is proven to reliably identify events that lead to extremes of surface temperature and precipitation over SSA. Up to 80% of warm surface air temperature extremes occur simultaneously with SSA blocking events. They are also responsible for the warming of western South Atlantic. The frequency of SSA blocking days is highly anti-correlated with the rainfall over southeast Brazil. The worst droughts in this area, during the summers of 1984, 2001 and 2014, are linked to record high numbers of SSA blocking days. The persistence of these events is also important in generating the extreme impacts.

Patterns of drought tolerance in major European temperate forest trees: climatic drivers and levels of variability.

PubMed

Zang, Christian; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Dittmar, Christoph; Rothe, Andreas; Menzel, Annette

2014-12-01

The future performance of native tree species under climate change conditions is frequently discussed, since increasingly severe and more frequent drought events are expected to become a major risk for forest ecosystems. To improve our understanding of the drought tolerance of the three common European temperate forest tree species Norway spruce, silver fir and common beech, we tested the influence of climate and tree-specific traits on the inter and intrasite variability in drought responses of these species. Basal area increment data from a large tree-ring network in Southern Germany and Alpine Austria along a climatic cline from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions were used to calculate indices of tolerance to drought events and their variability at the level of individual trees and populations. General patterns of tolerance indicated a high vulnerability of Norway spruce in comparison to fir and beech and a strong influence of bioclimatic conditions on drought response for all species. On the level of individual trees, low-growth rates prior to drought events, high competitive status and low age favored resilience in growth response to drought. Consequently, drought events led to heterogeneous and variable response patterns in forests stands. These findings may support the idea of deliberately using spontaneous selection and adaption effects as a passive strategy of forest management under climate change conditions, especially a strong directional selection for more tolerant individuals when frequency and intensity of summer droughts will increase in the course of global climate change. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effect on teenage risky driving of feedback from a safety monitoring system: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Simons-Morton, Bruce G; Bingham, C Raymond; Ouimet, Marie Claude; Pradhan, Anuj K; Chen, Rusan; Barretto, Andrea; Shope, Jean T

2013-07-01

Teenage risky driving may be due to teenagers not knowing what is risky, preferring risk, or the lack of consequences. Elevated gravitational-force (g-force) events, caused mainly by hard braking and sharp turns, provide a valid measure of risky driving and are the target of interventions using in-vehicle data recording and feedback devices. The effect of two forms of feedback about risky driving events to teenagers only or to teenagers and their parents was tested in a randomized controlled trial. Ninety parent-teen dyads were randomized to one of two groups: (1) immediate feedback to teens (Lights Only); or (2) immediate feedback to teens plus family access to event videos and ranking of the teen relative to other teenage drivers (Lights Plus). Participants' vehicles were instrumented with data recording devices and events exceeding .5 g were assessed for 2 weeks of baseline and 13 weeks of feedback. Growth curve analysis with random slopes yielded a significant decrease in event rates for the Lights Plus group (slope = -.11, p < .01), but no change for the Lights Only group (slope = .05, p = .67) across the 15 weeks. A large effect size of 1.67 favored the Lights Plus group. Provision of feedback with possible consequences associated with parents being informed reduced risky driving, whereas immediate feedback only to teenagers did not. Published by Elsevier Inc.

[Designing a tool to describe drug interactions and adverse events for learning and clinical routine].

PubMed

Auzéric, M; Bellemère, J; Conort, O; Roubille, R; Allenet, B; Bedouch, P; Rose, F-X; Juste, M; Charpiat, B

2009-11-01

Pharmacists play an important role in prescription analysis. They are involved in therapeutic drug monitoring, particularly for drugs with a narrow therapeutic index, prevention and management of drug interactions, and may be called in to identify side effects and adverse events related to drug therapy. For the polymedicated patient, the medical file, the list of prescribed drugs and the history of their administration may be insufficient to adequately assign the responsibility of a given adverse effect to one or more drugs. Graphical representations can sometimes be useful to describe and clarify a sequence of events. In addition, as part of their academic course, students have many occasions to hear about "side effects" and "drug interactions". However, in the academic setting, there are few opportunities to observe the evolution and the consequences of these events. In the course of their hospital training, these students are required to perform patient follow-up for pharmacotherapeutic or educational purposes and to comment case reports to physicians. The aim of this paper is to present a tool facilitating the graphic display of drug interaction consequences and side effects. This tool can be a useful aid for causality assessment. It structures the students' training course and helps them better understand the commentaries pharmacists provide for physicians. Further development of this tool should contribute to the prevention of adverse drug events.

Freeze-thaw processes and intense winter rainfall: The one-two punch for high streambank legacy sediment and nutrient loads from Mid-Atlantic watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inamdar, S. P.; Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Walter, R. C.; Merritts, D.

2017-12-01

Historic and contemporary anthropogenic soil erosion combined with early-American milldams resulted in large deposits of legacy sediments in the valley bottoms of Piedmont watersheds of the eastern US. Breaching of milldams subsequently yielded highly incised streams with exposed vertical streambanks that are vulnerable to erosion. Streambank erosion is attributed to fluvial scouring, freeze-thaw processes and mass wasting. While streambanks represent a large reservoir of fine sediments and nutrients, there is considerable uncertainty about the contribution of these sources to watershed nonpoint source pollution. Using high-frequency hydrologic, sediment, and turbidity data we show that freeze-thaw events followed by intense winter rainstorms can export unusually high concentrations of suspended sediment and particulate nutrients from watersheds. Data from a 12 ha forested, Piedmont, stream following an intense rain event (54 mm) on February 2016 yielded suspended sediment and particulate nutrient (organic carbon and nitrogen) concentrations and exports that exceeded those from tropical storms Irene, Lee, and Sandy that had much greater rainfall and discharge amounts, but which occurred later in the year. A similar response was also observed with regards to turbidity data for USGS stream monitoring locations at Brandywine Creek (813 km2) and White Clay Creek (153 km2). We hypothesize that much of the sediment export associated with winter storms is likely due to erosion of streambank sediments and was driven by the coupled occurrence of freeze-thaw conditions and intense rainfall events. We propose that freeze-thaw erosion represents an important and underappreciated mechanism in streams that "recharges" the sediment supply, which then is available for flushing by moderate to large storms. Future climate projections indicate increased intensification of storm events and increased variability of winter temperatures. Freeze-thaw cycles coupled with winter rain events could increase erosion and transport of streambank sediments with detrimental consequences for water quality and health of downstream aquatic ecosystems. This study underscores the need to better understand the mechanisms of legacy sediment erosion and transport along with appropriate restoration strategies.

Prevalence and correlates of posttraumatic stress disorder among medical students in the University of Jos, Nigeria.

PubMed

Nwoga, C N; Audu, M D; Obembe, A

2016-01-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is the most common consequence of traumatic experiences. The North Central Nigeria to which Plateau State belongs has witnessed many ethno-religious crises. While previous studies suggested a high prevalence of PTSD among students, to the best of our knowledge, no such study has been reported in Nigeria. The study aimed to determine the prevalence and correlates of PTSD among medical students in a university. Cross-sectional systematic random sampling was used to select 200 medical students. A two staged interview with questionnaire on sociodemographic variables, PTSD Checklist-Civilian Version, Impact of Event Scale, and Composite International Diagnostic Interview was carried out. SPSS Inc. Released 2007. SPSS for Windows, version 16.0. Chicago, SPSS Inc. was used for statistical analysis. Prevalence of PTSD among the students was 23.5%. Previous childhood trauma and personal experiences during the crisis were significantly associated with having PTSD. High prevalence rate of PTSD among medical students in Jos is an indicator of psychological consequences of the recurring crises on the inhabitants. There is a need for follow-up and counseling/trauma healing for those identified.

A novel Compton camera design featuring a rear-panel shield for substantial noise reduction in gamma-ray images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishiyama, T.; Kataoka, J.; Kishimoto, A.; Fujita, T.; Iwamoto, Y.; Taya, T.; Ohsuka, S.; Nakamura, S.; Hirayanagi, M.; Sakurai, N.; Adachi, S.; Uchiyama, T.

2014-12-01

After the Japanese nuclear disaster in 2011, large amounts of radioactive isotopes were released and still remain a serious problem in Japan. Consequently, various gamma cameras are being developed to help identify radiation hotspots and ensure effective decontamination operation. The Compton camera utilizes the kinematics of Compton scattering to contract images without using a mechanical collimator, and features a wide field of view. For instance, we have developed a novel Compton camera that features a small size (13 × 14 × 15 cm3) and light weight (1.9 kg), but which also achieves high sensitivity thanks to Ce:GAGG scintillators optically coupled wiith MPPC arrays. By definition, in such a Compton camera, gamma rays are expected to scatter in the ``scatterer'' and then be fully absorbed in the ``absorber'' (in what is called a forward-scattered event). However, high energy gamma rays often interact with the detector in the opposite direction - initially scattered in the absorber and then absorbed in the scatterer - in what is called a ``back-scattered'' event. Any contamination of such back-scattered events is known to substantially degrade the quality of gamma-ray images, but determining the order of gamma-ray interaction based solely on energy deposits in the scatterer and absorber is quite difficult. For this reason, we propose a novel yet simple Compton camera design that includes a rear-panel shield (a few mm thick) consisting of W or Pb located just behind the scatterer. Since the energy of scattered gamma rays in back-scattered events is much lower than that in forward-scattered events, we can effectively discriminate and reduce back-scattered events to improve the signal-to-noise ratio in the images. This paper presents our detailed optimization of the rear-panel shield using Geant4 simulation, and describes a demonstration test using our Compton camera.

Performance Development in Adolescent Track and Field Athletes According to Age, Sex and Sport Discipline

PubMed Central

Tønnessen, Espen; Svendsen, Ida Siobhan; Olsen, Inge Christoffer; Guttormsen, Atle; Haugen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Introduction Sex-specific differences that arise during puberty have a pronounced effect on the training process. However, the consequences this should have for goal-setting, planning and implementation of training for boys and girls of different ages remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to quantify performance developments in athletic running and jumping disciplines in the age range 11-18 and identify progression differences as a function of age, discipline and sex. Methods The 100 all-time best Norwegian male and female 60-m, 800-m, long jump and high jump athletes in each age category from 11 to 18 years were analysed using mixed models with random intercept according to athlete. Results Male and female athletes perform almost equally in running and jumping events up to the age of 12. Beyond this age, males outperform females. Relative annual performance development in females gradually decreases throughout the analyzed age period. In males, annual relative performance development accelerates up to the age of 13 (for running events) or 14 (for jumping events) and then gradually declines when approaching 18 years of age. The relative improvement from age 11 to 18 was twice as high in jumping events compared to running events. For all of the analyzed disciplines, overall improvement rates were >50% higher for males than for females. The performance sex difference evolves from < 5% to 10-18% in all the analyzed disciplines from age 11 to 18 yr. Conclusion To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to present absolute and relative annual performance developments in running and jumping events for competitive athletes from early to late adolescence. These results allow coaches and athletes to set realistic goals and prescribe conditioning programs that take into account sex-specific differences in the rate of performance development at different stages of maturation. PMID:26043192

Observation and Characterization of a Cosmic Muon Neutrino Flux from the Northern Hemisphere Using Six Years of IceCube Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aartsen, M. G.; Abraham, K.; Ackermann, M.; Adams, J.; Aguilar, J. A.; Ahlers, M.; Ahrens, M.; Altmann, D.; Andeen, K.; Anderson, T.; Ansseau, I.; Anton, G.; Archinger, M.; Argüelles, C.; Auffenberg, J.; Axani, S.; Bai, X.; Barwick, S. W.; Baum, V.; Bay, R.; Beatty, J. J.; Becker Tjus, J.; Becker, K.-H.; BenZvi, S.; Berghaus, P.; Berley, D.; Bernardini, E.; Bernhard, A.; Besson, D. Z.; Binder, G.; Bindig, D.; Bissok, M.; Blaufuss, E.; Blot, S.; Bohm, C.; Börner, M.; Bos, F.; Bose, D.; Böser, S.; Botner, O.; Braun, J.; Brayeur, L.; Bretz, H.-P.; Burgman, A.; Carver, T.; Casier, M.; Cheung, E.; Chirkin, D.; Christov, A.; Clark, K.; Classen, L.; Coenders, S.; Collin, G. H.; Conrad, J. M.; Cowen, D. F.; Cross, R.; Day, M.; de André, J. P. A. M.; De Clercq, C.; del Pino Rosendo, E.; Dembinski, H.; De Ridder, S.; Desiati, P.; de Vries, K. D.; de Wasseige, G.; de With, M.; DeYoung, T.; Díaz-Vélez, J. C.; di Lorenzo, V.; Dujmovic, H.; Dumm, J. P.; Dunkman, M.; Eberhardt, B.; Ehrhardt, T.; Eichmann, B.; Eller, P.; Euler, S.; Evenson, P. A.; Fahey, S.; Fazely, A. R.; Feintzeig, J.; Felde, J.; Filimonov, K.; Finley, C.; Flis, S.; Fösig, C.-C.; Franckowiak, A.; Friedman, E.; Fuchs, T.; Gaisser, T. K.; Gallagher, J.; Gerhardt, L.; Ghorbani, K.; Giang, W.; Gladstone, L.; Glagla, M.; Glüsenkamp, T.; Goldschmidt, A.; Golup, G.; Gonzalez, J. G.; Grant, D.; Griffith, Z.; Haack, C.; Haj Ismail, A.; Hallgren, A.; Halzen, F.; Hansen, E.; Hansmann, B.; Hansmann, T.; Hanson, K.; Hebecker, D.; Heereman, D.; Helbing, K.; Hellauer, R.; Hickford, S.; Hignight, J.; Hill, G. C.; Hoffman, K. D.; Hoffmann, R.; Holzapfel, K.; Hoshina, K.; Huang, F.; Huber, M.; Hultqvist, K.; In, S.; Ishihara, A.; Jacobi, E.; Japaridze, G. S.; Jeong, M.; Jero, K.; Jones, B. J. P.; Jurkovic, M.; Kappes, A.; Karg, T.; Karle, A.; Katz, U.; Kauer, M.; Keivani, A.; Kelley, J. L.; Kemp, J.; Kheirandish, A.; Kim, M.; Kintscher, T.; Kiryluk, J.; Kittler, T.; Klein, S. R.; Kohnen, G.; Koirala, R.; Kolanoski, H.; Konietz, R.; Köpke, L.; Kopper, C.; Kopper, S.; Koskinen, D. J.; Kowalski, M.; Krings, K.; Kroll, M.; Krückl, G.; Krüger, C.; Kunnen, J.; Kunwar, S.; Kurahashi, N.; Kuwabara, T.; Labare, M.; Lanfranchi, J. L.; Larson, M. J.; Lauber, F.; Lennarz, D.; Lesiak-Bzdak, M.; Leuermann, M.; Leuner, J.; Lu, L.; Lünemann, J.; Madsen, J.; Maggi, G.; Mahn, K. B. M.; Mancina, S.; Mandelartz, M.; Maruyama, R.; Mase, K.; Maunu, R.; McNally, F.; Meagher, K.; Medici, M.; Meier, M.; Meli, A.; Menne, T.; Merino, G.; Meures, T.; Miarecki, S.; Mohrmann, L.; Montaruli, T.; Moulai, M.; Nahnhauer, R.; Naumann, U.; Neer, G.; Niederhausen, H.; Nowicki, S. C.; Nygren, D. R.; Obertacke Pollmann, A.; Olivas, A.; O'Murchadha, A.; Palczewski, T.; Pandya, H.; Pankova, D. V.; Peiffer, P.; Penek, Ö.; Pepper, J. A.; Pérez de los Heros, C.; Pieloth, D.; Pinat, E.; Price, P. B.; Przybylski, G. T.; Quinnan, M.; Raab, C.; Rädel, L.; Rameez, M.; Rawlins, K.; Reimann, R.; Relethford, B.; Relich, M.; Resconi, E.; Rhode, W.; Richman, M.; Riedel, B.; Robertson, S.; Rongen, M.; Rott, C.; Ruhe, T.; Ryckbosch, D.; Rysewyk, D.; Sabbatini, L.; Sanchez Herrera, S. E.; Sandrock, A.; Sandroos, J.; Sarkar, S.; Satalecka, K.; Schimp, M.; Schlunder, P.; Schmidt, T.; Schoenen, S.; Schöneberg, S.; Schumacher, L.; Seckel, D.; Seunarine, S.; Soldin, D.; Song, M.; Spiczak, G. M.; Spiering, C.; Stahlberg, M.; Stanev, T.; Stasik, A.; Steuer, A.; Stezelberger, T.; Stokstad, R. G.; Stößl, A.; Ström, R.; Strotjohann, N. L.; Sullivan, G. W.; Sutherland, M.; Taavola, H.; Taboada, I.; Tatar, J.; Tenholt, F.; Ter-Antonyan, S.; Terliuk, A.; Tešić, G.; Tilav, S.; Toale, P. A.; Tobin, M. N.; Toscano, S.; Tosi, D.; Tselengidou, M.; Turcati, A.; Unger, E.; Usner, M.; Vandenbroucke, J.; van Eijndhoven, N.; Vanheule, S.; van Rossem, M.; van Santen, J.; Veenkamp, J.; Vehring, M.; Voge, M.; Vraeghe, M.; Walck, C.; Wallace, A.; Wallraff, M.; Wandkowsky, N.; Weaver, Ch.; Weiss, M. J.; Wendt, C.; Westerhoff, S.; Whelan, B. J.; Wickmann, S.; Wiebe, K.; Wiebusch, C. H.; Wille, L.; Williams, D. R.; Wills, L.; Wolf, M.; Wood, T. R.; Woolsey, E.; Woschnagg, K.; Xu, D. L.; Xu, X. W.; Xu, Y.; Yanez, J. P.; Yodh, G.; Yoshida, S.; Zoll, M.; Icecube Collaboration

2016-12-01

The IceCube Collaboration has previously discovered a high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux using neutrino events with interaction vertices contained within the instrumented volume of the IceCube detector. We present a complementary measurement using charged current muon neutrino events where the interaction vertex can be outside this volume. As a consequence of the large muon range the effective area is significantly larger but the field of view is restricted to the Northern Hemisphere. IceCube data from 2009 through 2015 have been analyzed using a likelihood approach based on the reconstructed muon energy and zenith angle. At the highest neutrino energies between 194 {TeV} and 7.8 {PeV} a significant astrophysical contribution is observed, excluding a purely atmospheric origin of these events at 5.6σ significance. The data are well described by an isotropic, unbroken power-law flux with a normalization at 100 {TeV} neutrino energy of ({0.90}-0.27+0.30)× {10}-18 {{GeV}}-1 {{cm}}-2 {{{s}}}-1 {{sr}}-1 and a hard spectral index of γ =2.13+/- 0.13. The observed spectrum is harder in comparison to previous IceCube analyses with lower energy thresholds which may indicate a break in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum of unknown origin. The highest-energy event observed has a reconstructed muon energy of (4.5+/- 1.2) {PeV} which implies a probability of less than 0.005 % for this event to be of atmospheric origin. Analyzing the arrival directions of all events with reconstructed muon energies above 200 {TeV} no correlation with known γ-ray sources was found. Using the high statistics of atmospheric neutrinos we report the current best constraints on a prompt atmospheric muon neutrino flux originating from charmed meson decays which is below 1.06 in units of the flux normalization of the model in Enberg et al.

Theory of nonlinear elasticity, stress-induced relaxation, and dynamic yielding in dense fluids of hard nonspherical colloids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Rui; Schweizer, Kenneth S.

2012-04-01

We generalize the microscopic naïve mode coupling and nonlinear Langevin equation theories of the coupled translation-rotation dynamics of dense suspensions of uniaxial colloids to treat the effect of applied stress on shear elasticity, cooperative cage escape, structural relaxation, and dynamic and static yielding. The key concept is a stress-dependent dynamic free energy surface that quantifies the center-of-mass force and torque on a moving colloid. The consequences of variable particle aspect ratio and volume fraction, and the role of plastic versus double glasses, are established in the context of dense, glass-forming suspensions of hard-core dicolloids. For low aspect ratios, the theory provides a microscopic basis for the recently observed phenomenon of double yielding as a consequence of stress-driven sequential unlocking of caging constraints via reduction of the distinct entropic barriers associated with the rotational and translational degrees of freedom. The existence, and breadth in volume fraction, of the double yielding phenomena is predicted to generally depend on both the degree of particle anisotropy and experimental probing frequency, and as a consequence typically occurs only over a window of (high) volume fractions where there is strong decoupling of rotational and translational activated relaxation. At high enough concentrations, a return to single yielding is predicted. For large aspect ratio dicolloids, rotation and translation are always strongly coupled in the activated barrier hopping event, and hence for all stresses only a single yielding process is predicted.

Emotional and Behavioral Consequences of Bioterrorism: Planning a Public Health Response

PubMed Central

Stein, Bradley D; Tanielian, Terri L; Eisenman, David P; Keyser, Donna J; Burnam, M Audrey; Pincus, Harold A

2004-01-01

Millions of dollars have been spent improving the public health system's bioterrorism response capabilities. Yet relatively little attention has been paid to precisely how the public will respond to bioterrorism and how emotional and behavioral responses might complicate an otherwise successful response. This article synthesizes the available evidence about the likely emotional and behavioral consequences of bioterrorism to suggest what decision makers can do now to improve that response. It examines the emotional and behavioral impact of previous “bioterrorism-like” events and summarizes interviews with experts who have responded to such events or conducted research on the effects of communitywide disasters. The article concludes by reflecting on the evidence and experts’ perspectives to suggest actions to be taken now and future policy and research priorities. PMID:15330972

Analysis of warm convective rain events in Catalonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballart, D.; Figuerola, F.; Aran, M.; Rigo, T.

2009-09-01

Between the end of September and November, events with high amounts of rainfall are quite common in Catalonia. The high sea surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea near to the Catalan Coast is one of the most important factors that help to the development of this type of storms. Some of these events have particular characteristics: elevated rain rate during short time periods, not very deep convection and low lightning activity. Consequently, the use of remote sensing tools for the surveillance is quite useless or limited. With reference to the high rain efficiency, this is caused by internal mechanisms of the clouds, and also by the air mass where the precipitation structure is developed. As aforementioned, the contribution of the sea to the air mass is very relevant, not only by the increase of the big condensation nuclei, but also by high temperature of the low layers of the atmosphere, where are allowed clouds with 5 or 6 km of particles in liquid phase. In fact, the freezing level into these clouds can be detected by -15ºC. Due to these characteristics, this type of rainy structures can produce high quantities of rainfall in a relatively brief period of time, and, in the case to be quasi-stationary, precipitation values at surface could be very important. From the point of view of remote sensing tools, the cloud nature implies that the different tools and methodologies commonly used for the analysis of heavy rain events are not useful. This is caused by the following features: lightning are rarely observed, the top temperatures of clouds are not cold enough to be enhanced in the satellite imagery, and, finally, reflectivity radar values are lower than other heavy rain cases. The third point to take into account is the vulnerability of the affected areas. An elevated percentage of the Catalan population lives in the coastal region. In the central coast of Catalonia, the urban areas are surrounded by a not very high mountain range with small basins and steep slopes. These factors increase the number of flash floods and the risk indexes. In the present study it is showed the general characteristics of the warm rain events observed in Catalonia, using meteorological, pluviometric, thermodynamic, and remote sensing data. Beside this, other heavy rain events with different features have been analyzed with the purpose of identify the main differences and to improve the knowledge in order to provide enough information for surveillance tasks

Prediflood: A French research project aiming at developing a road submersion warning system for flash flood prone areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naulin, J. P.; Payrastre, O.; Gaume, E.; Delrieu, G.; Arnaud, P.; Lutoff, C.; Vincendon, B.

2010-09-01

Accurate flood forecasts are crucial for an efficient flood event management. Until now, hydro-meteorological forecasts have been mainly used for early-warnings in France (Meteorological and flood vigilance maps) or over the world (Flash-flood guidances). Forecasts are also often limited to the main streams or to specific watersheds with particular assets like hydropower dams, leaving aside large parts of the territory. Distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting models, able to take advantage of the now available high spatial and temporal resolution rainfall measurements, are promising tools for anticipating and quantifying the short term consequences of storm events all over a region. They would be very useful, especially in regions frequently affected by severe storms with complex spatio-temporal patterns. They would provide the necessary information for flood event management services to identify the areas at risk and to take the appropriate safety and rescue measures: prepositioning of rescue means, stopping of the traffic on exposed roads, determination of safe accesses or evacuation routes. Some preliminary tests conducted by the LCPC within the European project FLOODsite have shown encouraging results of a distributed hydro-meteorological forecasting model. It seems possible, despite the limits of the available rainfall measurements and the shortcomings of the rainfall-runoff models, to deliver distributed forecasts of possible local flood consequences - road submersion risk rating at about 5000 different locations over the Gard department in the tested case - with an acceptable level of accuracy. The PreDiFlood project (http://heberge.lcpc.fr/prediflood/) aims at consolidating and extending these first results with the objective to conduct pre-operational tests with possible end-users at the end of the project. Such a tool will not replace, but complement existing flood forecasting approaches in time and space domains that have not been covered until now (short term forecasting at a regional scale). It will produce a completely new type of forecasts and the usefulness of such data for the emergency services for their real-time decision making will be assessed within the project. Beyond the direct operational objectives, this project aims at demonstrating, on a specific application (the now-casting of road submersions), the possibilities and also the limits and hence the needed improvements of tools that are still underused: radar quantitative precipitation estimates but also precipitation now-castings, distributed rainfall-runoff models, and the recent knowledge acquired on flash-floods consequence evaluation as well as event management.

Benefits of a European project on diagnostics of highly pathogenic agents and assessment of potential "dual use" issues.

PubMed

Grunow, Roland; Ippolito, G; Jacob, D; Sauer, U; Rohleder, A; Di Caro, A; Iacovino, R

2014-01-01

Quality assurance exercises and networking on the detection of highly infectious pathogens (QUANDHIP) is a joint action initiative set up in 2011 that has successfully unified the primary objectives of the European Network on Highly Pathogenic Bacteria (ENHPB) and of P4-laboratories (ENP4-Lab) both of which aimed to improve the efficiency, effectiveness, and response capabilities of laboratories directed at protecting the health of European citizens against high consequence bacteria and viruses of significant public health concern. Both networks have established a common collaborative consortium of 37 nationally and internationally recognized institutions with laboratory facilities from 22 European countries. The specific objectives and achievements include the initiation and establishment of a recognized and acceptable quality assurance scheme, including practical external quality assurance exercises, comprising living agents, that aims to improve laboratory performance, accuracy, and detection capabilities in support of patient management and public health responses; recognized training schemes for diagnostics and handling of highly pathogenic agents; international repositories comprising highly pathogenic bacteria and viruses for the development of standardized reference material; a standardized and transparent Biosafety and Biosecurity strategy protecting healthcare personnel and the community in dealing with high consequence pathogens; the design and organization of response capabilities dealing with cross-border events with highly infectious pathogens including the consideration of diagnostic capabilities of individual European laboratories. The project tackled several sensitive issues regarding Biosafety, Biosecurity and "dual use" concerns. The article will give an overview of the project outcomes and discuss the assessment of potential "dual use" issues.

Benefits of a European Project on Diagnostics of Highly Pathogenic Agents and Assessment of Potential “Dual Use” Issues

PubMed Central

Grunow, Roland; Ippolito, G.; Jacob, D.; Sauer, U.; Rohleder, A.; Di Caro, A.; Iacovino, R.

2014-01-01

Quality assurance exercises and networking on the detection of highly infectious pathogens (QUANDHIP) is a joint action initiative set up in 2011 that has successfully unified the primary objectives of the European Network on Highly Pathogenic Bacteria (ENHPB) and of P4-laboratories (ENP4-Lab) both of which aimed to improve the efficiency, effectiveness, and response capabilities of laboratories directed at protecting the health of European citizens against high consequence bacteria and viruses of significant public health concern. Both networks have established a common collaborative consortium of 37 nationally and internationally recognized institutions with laboratory facilities from 22 European countries. The specific objectives and achievements include the initiation and establishment of a recognized and acceptable quality assurance scheme, including practical external quality assurance exercises, comprising living agents, that aims to improve laboratory performance, accuracy, and detection capabilities in support of patient management and public health responses; recognized training schemes for diagnostics and handling of highly pathogenic agents; international repositories comprising highly pathogenic bacteria and viruses for the development of standardized reference material; a standardized and transparent Biosafety and Biosecurity strategy protecting healthcare personnel and the community in dealing with high consequence pathogens; the design and organization of response capabilities dealing with cross-border events with highly infectious pathogens including the consideration of diagnostic capabilities of individual European laboratories. The project tackled several sensitive issues regarding Biosafety, Biosecurity and “dual use” concerns. The article will give an overview of the project outcomes and discuss the assessment of potential “dual use” issues. PMID:25426479

Oblique impacts: Catastrophic vs. protracted effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, P. H.

1988-01-01

Proposed impacts as the cause of biologic catastrophes at the end of the Cretaceous and Eocene face several enigmas: protracted extinctions, even prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature; widespread but non-uniform dispersal of the meteoritic component; absence of a crater of sufficient size; and evidence for massive intensive fires. Various hypotheses provide reasonable mechanisms for mass mortalities: global cooling by continental impact sites; global warming by oceanic impact sites; contrasting effects of asteroidal, cometary, and even multiple impacts; and stress on an already fragile global environment. Yet not every known large impact is associated with a major biologic catastrophe. An alternative is expanded: the consequences of an oblique impact. The most probable angle of impact is 45 deg with the probability for an impact at smaller angles decreasing: A vertical impact is as rare as a tangential impact with a 5 deg impact angle or less occurring only 8 percent of the time. Consequently a low-angle impact is a rare but probable event. Laboratory experiments at the NASA-Ames Vertical Gun Range reveal important information about cratering efficiency, impact vaporization, projectile dispersal, and phenomenology, thereby providing perspective for possible consequences of such an impact on both the Earth and Moon. Oblique impacts are rare but certain events through geologic time: A 5 deg impact by a 2 km-diameter impactor on the Earth would occur only once in about 18 my with a 10 km-diameter once in about 450 my. Major life extinctions beginning prior to the stratigraphic cosmogenic signature or protracted extinctions seemingly too long after the proposed event may not be evidence against an impact as a cause but evidence for a more complex but probable sequence of events.

Time-decreasing hazard and increasing time until the next earthquake

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Corral, Alvaro

2005-01-01

The existence of a slowly always decreasing probability density for the recurrence times of earthquakes in the stationary case implies that the occurrence of an event at a given instant becomes more unlikely as time since the previous event increases. Consequently, the expected waiting time to the next earthquake increases with the elapsed time, that is, the event moves away fast to the future. We have found direct empirical evidence of this counterintuitive behavior in two worldwide catalogs as well as in diverse regional catalogs. Universal scaling functions describe the phenomenon well.

Science fiction/science fact: medical genetics in news stories.

PubMed

Petersen, Alan; Anderson, Alison; Allan, Stuart

2005-12-01

News media coverage of biotechnology issues offers a rich source of fictional portrayals, with stories drawing strongly on popular imagery and metaphors in descriptions of the powers and dangers of biotechnology. This article examines how science fiction metaphors, imagery and motifs surface in British newspaper (broadsheet and tabloid) coverage of medical genetic issues, focusing on press reporting of two recent highly publicised news media events; namely, the Hashmi and Whitaker families' plights to use stem cells from a 'perfectly matched sibling' for the treatment of their diseased children. It is concerned in particular with the extent to which journalists' use of certain literary devices encourages preferred formulations of medical genetics, and thereby potentially shapes public deliberation about scientific developments and their consequences for society. Understanding how science fiction sustains science fact, and vice versa, and how the former is portrayed in news media, it is argued, would thus seem to be crucial in the effort to understand why people respond so strongly to biotechnologies, and what they imagine their consequences to be.

Internally displaced "victims of armed conflict" in Colombia: the trajectory and trauma signature of forced migration.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Garfin, Dana Rose; Espinel, Zelde; Araya, Ricardo; Oquendo, Maria A; Wainberg, Milton L; Chaskel, Roberto; Gaviria, Silvia L; Ordóñez, Anna E; Espinola, Maria; Wilson, Fiona E; Muñoz García, Natalia; Gómez Ceballos, Angela Milena; Garcia-Barcena, Yanira; Verdeli, Helen; Neria, Yuval

2014-10-01

While conflict-induced forced migration is a global phenomenon, the situation in Colombia, South America, is distinctive. Colombia has ranked either first or second in the number of internally displaced persons for 10 years, a consequence of decades of armed conflict compounded by high prevalence of drug trafficking. The displacement trajectory for displaced persons in Colombia proceeds through a sequence of stages: (1) pre-expulsion threats and vulnerability, (2) expulsion, (3) migration, (4) initial adaptation to relocation, (5) protracted resettlement (the end point for most forced migrants), and, rarely, (6) return to the community of origin. Trauma signature analysis, an evidence-based method that elucidates the physical and psychological consequences associated with exposures to harm and loss during disasters and complex emergencies, was used to identify the psychological risk factors and potentially traumatic events experienced by conflict-displaced persons in Colombia, stratified across the phases of displacement. Trauma and loss are experienced differentially throughout the pathway of displacement.

Internally Displaced “Victims of Armed Conflict” in Colombia: The Trajectory and Trauma Signature of Forced Migration

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M.; Garfin, Dana Rose; Espinel, Zelde; Araya, Ricardo; Oquendo, Maria A.; Wainberg, Milton L.; Chaskel, Roberto; Gaviria, Silvia L.; Ordóñez, Anna E.; Espinola, Maria; Wilson, Fiona E.; García, Natalia Muñoz; Ceballos, Ángela Milena Gómez; Garcia-Barcena, Yanira; Verdeli, Helen; Neria, Yuval

2016-01-01

While conflict-induced forced migration is a global phenomenon, the situation in Colombia, South America, is distinctive. Colombia has ranked either first or second in the number of internally displaced persons for 10 years, a consequence of decades of armed conflict compounded by high prevalence of drug trafficking. The displacement trajectory for displaced persons in Colombia proceeds through a sequence of stages: (1) pre-expulsion threats and vulnerability, (2) expulsion, (3) migration, (4) initial adaptation to relocation, (5) protracted resettlement (the end point for most forced migrants), and, rarely, (6) return to the community of origin. Trauma signature analysis, an evidence-based method that elucidates the physical and psychological consequences associated with exposures to harm and loss during disasters and complex emergencies, was used to identify the psychological risk factors and potentially traumatic events experienced by conflict-displaced persons in Colombia, stratified across the phases of displacement. Trauma and loss are experienced differentially throughout the pathway of displacement. PMID:25135775

Resilience Metrics for the Electric Power System: A Performance-Based Approach.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vugrin, Eric D.; Castillo, Andrea R; Silva-Monroy, Cesar Augusto

Grid resilience is a concept related to a power system's ability to continue operating and delivering power even in the event that low probability, high-consequence disruptions such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and cyber-attacks occur. Grid resilience objectives focus on managing and, ideally, minimizing potential consequences that occur as a result of these disruptions. Currently, no formal grid resilience definitions, metrics, or analysis methods have been universally accepted. This document describes an effort to develop and describe grid resilience metrics and analysis methods. The metrics and methods described herein extend upon the Resilience Analysis Process (RAP) developed by Watson et al. formore » the 2015 Quadrennial Energy Review. The extension allows for both outputs from system models and for historical data to serve as the basis for creating grid resilience metrics and informing grid resilience planning and response decision-making. This document describes the grid resilience metrics and analysis methods. Demonstration of the metrics and methods is shown through a set of illustrative use cases.« less

NUCLEAR INCIDENT CAPABILITIES, KNOWLEDGE & ENABLER LEVERAGING

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinney, J.; Newman, J.; Goodwyn, A.

2011-04-18

The detonation of a 10 Kiloton Improvised Nuclear Device (IND) is a serious scenario that the United States must be prepared to address. The likelihood of a single nuclear bomb exploding in a single city is greater today than at the height of the Cold War. Layered defenses against domestic nuclear terrorism indicate that our government continues to view the threat as credible. The risk of such an event is further evidenced by terrorists desire to acquire nuclear weapons. The act of nuclear terrorism, particularly an act directed against a large population center in the United States, will overwhelm themore » capabilities of many local and state governments to respond, and will seriously challenge existing federal response capabilities. A 10 Kiloton IND detonation would cause total infrastructure damage in a 3-mile radius and levels of radiation spanning out 3,000 square miles. In a densely populated urban area, the anticipated casualties would be in excess of several hundred thousand. Although there would be enormous loss of life, housing and infrastructure, an IND detonation is a recoverable event. We can reduce the risk of these high-consequence, nontraditional threats by enhancing our nuclear detection architecture and establishing well planned and rehearsed plans for coordinated response. It is also important for us to identify new and improved ways to foster collaboration regarding the response to the IND threat to ensure the demand and density of expertise required for such an event is postured and prepared to mobilize, integrate, and support a myriad of anticipated challenges. We must be prepared to manage the consequences of such an event in a deliberate manner and get beyond notions of total devastation by adopting planning assumptions around survivability and resiliency. Planning for such a scenario needs to be decisive in determining a response based on competencies and desired outcomes. It is time to synthesize known threats and plausible consequences into action. Much work needs to be accomplished to enhance nuclear preparedness and to substantially bolster and clarify the capacity to deploy competent resources. Until detailed plans are scripted, and personnel and other resources are postured, and exercised, IND specific planning remains an urgent need requiring attention and action. Although strategic guidance, policies, concepts of operations, roles, responsibilities, and plans governing the response and consequence management for the IND scenario exist, an ongoing integration challenge prevails regarding how best to get capable and competent surge capacity personnel (disaster reservists) and other resources engaged and readied in an up-front manner with pre-scripted assignments to augment the magnitude of anticipated demands of expertise. With the above in mind, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) puts science to work to create and deploy practical, high-value, cost-effective nuclear solutions. As the Department of Energy's (DOE) applied research and development laboratory, SRNL supports Savannah River Site (SRS) operations, DOE, national initiatives, and other federal agencies, across the country and around the world. SRNL's parent at SRS also employs more than 8,000 personnel. The team is a great asset that seeks to continue their service in the interest of national security and stands ready to accomplish new missions. Overall, an integral part of the vision for SRNL's National and Homeland Security Directorate is the establishment of a National Security Center at SRNL, and development of state of the science capabilities (technologies and trained technical personnel) for responding to emergency events on local, regional, or national scales. This entails leveraging and posturing the skills, knowledge and experience base of SRS personnel to deliver an integrated capability to support local, state, and federal authorities through the development of pre-scripted requests for assistance, agreements, and plans. It also includes developing plans, training, exercises, recruitment strategies, and processes to establish a 1,000 plus person nuclear disaster workforce capable of providing surge capacity support that can be deployed in part or in all.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Del Tutto, Marco

This thesis presents a study of the NuMI beam line intended to clarify how the particle trajectories through the focusing system and consequently the neutrino event yield are affected by the variation of the Horn Currents.

Early Life Exposures and Cancer

Cancer.gov

Early-life events and exposures have important consequences for cancer development later in life, however, epidemiological studies of early-life factors and cancer development later in life have had significant methodological challenges.

Initiating Event Analysis of a Lithium Fluoride Thorium Reactor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geraci, Nicholas Charles

The primary purpose of this study is to perform an Initiating Event Analysis for a Lithium Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR) as the first step of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The major objective of the research is to compile a list of key initiating events capable of resulting in failure of safety systems and release of radioactive material from the LFTR. Due to the complex interactions between engineering design, component reliability and human reliability, probabilistic safety assessments are most useful when the scope is limited to a single reactor plant. Thus, this thesis will study the LFTR design proposed by Flibe Energy. An October 2015 Electric Power Research Institute report on the Flibe Energy LFTR asked "what-if?" questions of subject matter experts and compiled a list of key hazards with the most significant consequences to the safety or integrity of the LFTR. The potential exists for unforeseen hazards to pose additional risk for the LFTR, but the scope of this thesis is limited to evaluation of those key hazards already identified by Flibe Energy. These key hazards are the starting point for the Initiating Event Analysis performed in this thesis. Engineering evaluation and technical study of the plant using a literature review and comparison to reference technology revealed four hazards with high potential to cause reactor core damage. To determine the initiating events resulting in realization of these four hazards, reference was made to previous PSAs and existing NRC and EPRI initiating event lists. Finally, fault tree and event tree analyses were conducted, completing the logical classification of initiating events. Results are qualitative as opposed to quantitative due to the early stages of system design descriptions and lack of operating experience or data for the LFTR. In summary, this thesis analyzes initiating events using previous research and inductive and deductive reasoning through traditional risk management techniques to arrive at a list of key initiating events that can be used to address vulnerabilities during the design phases of LFTR development.

Multiple-Event, Single-Photon Counting Imaging Sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zheng, Xinyu; Cunningham, Thomas J.; Sun, Chao; Wang, Kang L.

2011-01-01

The single-photon counting imaging sensor is typically an array of silicon Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes that are monolithically integrated with CMOS (complementary metal oxide semiconductor) readout, signal processing, and addressing circuits located in each pixel and the peripheral area of the chip. The major problem is its single-event method for photon count number registration. A single-event single-photon counting imaging array only allows registration of up to one photon count in each of its pixels during a frame time, i.e., the interval between two successive pixel reset operations. Since the frame time can t be too short, this will lead to very low dynamic range and make the sensor merely useful for very low flux environments. The second problem of the prior technique is a limited fill factor resulting from consumption of chip area by the monolithically integrated CMOS readout in pixels. The resulting low photon collection efficiency will substantially ruin any benefit gained from the very sensitive single-photon counting detection. The single-photon counting imaging sensor developed in this work has a novel multiple-event architecture, which allows each of its pixels to register as more than one million (or more) photon-counting events during a frame time. Because of a consequently boosted dynamic range, the imaging array of the invention is capable of performing single-photon counting under ultra-low light through high-flux environments. On the other hand, since the multiple-event architecture is implemented in a hybrid structure, back-illumination and close-to-unity fill factor can be realized, and maximized quantum efficiency can also be achieved in the detector array.

Three-dimensional circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall over central North China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wei; Yu, Rucong; Li, Jian; Yuan, Weihua

2016-04-01

Using daily and hourly rain gauge records and Japanese 25 year reanalysis data over 30 years, this work reveals two major circulation structures leading to heavy summer rainfall events in central North China (CNC), and further analyzes the effects of the circulations on these rainfall events. One circulation structure has an extensive upper tropospheric warm anomaly (UTWA) covering North China (NC). By strengthening the upper anticyclonic anomaly and lower southerly flows around NC, the UTWA plays a positive role in forming upper level divergence and lower level moisture convergence. As a result, the warm anomalous circulation has a solid relationship with large-scale, long-duration rainfall events with a diurnal peak around midnight to early morning. The other circulation structure has an upper tropospheric cold anomaly (UTCA) located in the upper stream of NC. Contributed to by the UTCA, a cold trough appears in the upper stream of NC and an unstable configuration with upper (lower) cold (warm) anomalies forms around CNC. Consequently, CNC is covered by strong instability and high convective energy, and the cold anomalous circulation is closely connected with local, short-duration rainfall events concentrated from late afternoon to early nighttime. The close connections between circulation structures and typical rainfall events are confirmed by two independent converse analysis processes: from circulations to rainfall characteristics, and from typical rainfall events to circulations. The results presented in this work indicate that the upper tropospheric temperature has significant influences on heavy rainfall, and thus more attention should be paid to the upper tropospheric temperature in future analyses.

Post-traumatic stress symptoms in Swedish obstetricians and midwives after severe obstetric events: a cross-sectional retrospective survey.

PubMed

Wahlberg, Å; Andreen Sachs, M; Johannesson, K; Hallberg, G; Jonsson, M; Skoog Svanberg, A; Högberg, U

2017-07-01

To examine post-traumatic stress reactions among obstetricians and midwives, experiences of support and professional consequences after severe events in the labour ward. Cross-sectional online survey from January 7 to March 10, 2014. Members of the Swedish Society of Obstetrics and Gynaecology and the Swedish Association of Midwives. Potentially traumatic events were defined as: the child died or was severely injured during delivery; maternal near-miss; maternal mortality; and other events such as violence or threat. The validated Screen Questionnaire Posttraumatic Stress Disorder (SQ-PTSD), based on DSM-IV (1994) 4th edition, was used to assess partial post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and probable PTSD. Partial or probable PTSD. The response rate was 47% for obstetricians (n = 706) and 40% (n = 1459) for midwives. Eighty-four percent of the obstetricians and 71% of the midwives reported experiencing at least one severe event on the delivery ward. Fifteen percent of both professions reported symptoms indicative of partial PTSD, whereas 7% of the obstetricians and 5% of the midwives indicated symptoms fulfilling PTSD criteria. Having experienced emotions of guilt or perceived insufficient support from friends predicted a higher risk of suffering from partial or probable PTSD. Obstetricians and midwives with partial PTSD symptoms chose to change their work to outpatient care significantly more often than colleagues without these symptoms. A substantial proportion of obstetricians and midwives reported symptoms of partial or probable PTSD after severe traumatic events experienced on the labour ward. Support and resilience training could avoid suffering and consequences for professional carers. In a survey 15% of Swedish obstetricians and midwives reported PTSD symptoms after their worst obstetric event. © 2016 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

Indirect consequences of extreme weather and climate events and their associations with physical health in coastal Bangladesh: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Beier, Dominik; Brzoska, Patrick; Khan, Md Mobarak Hossain

2015-01-01

Bangladesh is one of the countries in the world which is most prone to natural disasters. The overall situation is expected to worsen, since extreme weather and climate events (EWCE) are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity. Indirect consequences caused in the events' aftermath widen the range of possible adverse health outcomes. To assess the association of indirect consequences of EWCE and physical health. We used recent cross-sectional self-reported data from 16 coastal villages in Bangladesh. A total of 980 households were surveyed using a structured questionnaire. The outcome of physical health was categorized into three groups, reflecting the severity of reported diseases by the respective source of treatment as a proxy variable (hospital/clinic for severe disease, other source/no treatment for moderate disease, and no disease). The final statistical analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression. Severe diseases were significantly associated with drinking water from open sources [odds ratio (OR): 4.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.25-8.09] and tube wells (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.43-4.01), moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 6.24, 95% CI: 2.76-14.11), food scarcity (OR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.16-3.40), and the perception of increased employment problems (OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.18-4.07). Moderate diseases were significantly associated with moderate harm by river erosion (OR: 2.65, 95% CI: 1.28-5.48) and fully experienced food scarcity (OR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.16-2.63). For both categories, women and the elderly had higher chances for diseases. Indirect consequences of EWCE were found to be associated with adverse health outcomes. Basic needs such as drinking water, food production, and employment opportunities are particularly likely to become threatened by EWCE and, thus, may lead to a higher likelihood of ill-health. Intervention strategies should concentrate on protection and provision of basic needs such as safe drinking water and food in the aftermath of an event.

Role of Mass Media in the Disaster Preparedness and Sustainable Development of Society

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seid-Aliyeva, Dinara E.

2006-03-23

Better understanding of the causes and effects of large earthquakes can assists in mitigation of damage and loss of lives as a result of destructive natural events. Well-informed and educated population living in geological hazard-prone regions can reduce catastrophic consequences of natural disasters and guaranty the sustainable development of healthy society. A development of information service for disaster management is of importance in reduction of the disaster's consequences.

Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel.

PubMed

Gupta, Sanjeev; Collier, Jenny S; Palmer-Felgate, Andy; Potter, Graeme

2007-07-19

Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.

Solving the puzzle of yeast survival in ephemeral nectar systems: exponential growth is not enough.

PubMed

Hausmann, Sebastian L; Tietjen, Britta; Rillig, Matthias C

2017-12-01

Flower nectar is a sugar-rich ephemeral habitat for microorganisms. Nectar-borne yeasts are part of the microbial community and can affect pollination by changing nectar chemistry, attractiveness to pollinators or flower temperature if yeast population densities are high. Pollinators act as dispersal agents in this system; however, pollination events lead potentially to shrinking nectar yeast populations. We here examine how sufficiently high cell densities of nectar yeast can develop in a flower. In laboratory experiments, we determined the remaining fraction of nectar yeast cells after nectar removal, and used honeybees to determine the number of transmitted yeast cells from one flower to the next. The results of these experiments directly fed into a simulation model providing an insight into movement and colonization ecology of nectar yeasts. We found that cell densities only reached an ecologically relevant size for an intermediate pollination probability. Too few pollination events reduce yeast inoculation rate and too many reduce yeast population size strongly. In addition, nectar yeasts need a trait combination of at least an intermediate growth rate and an intermediate remaining fraction to compensate for highly frequent decimations. Our results can be used to predict nectar yeast dispersal, growth and consequently their ecological effects. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Causal illusions in children when the outcome is frequent

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually unrelated. One factor that has been shown to promote these mistaken beliefs is the outcome probability. Thus, people tend to overestimate the strength of a causal relation when the potential consequence (i.e. the outcome) occurs with a high probability (outcome-density bias). Given that children and adults differ in several important features involved in causal judgment, including prior knowledge and basic cognitive skills, developmental studies can be considered an outstanding approach to detect and further explore the psychological processes and mechanisms underlying this bias. However, the outcome density bias has been mainly explored in adulthood, and no previous evidence for this bias has been reported in children. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend outcome-density bias research to childhood. In two experiments, children between 6 and 8 years old were exposed to two similar setups, both showing a non-contingent relation between the potential cause and the outcome. These two scenarios differed only in the probability of the outcome, which could either be high or low. Children judged the relation between the two events to be stronger in the high probability of the outcome setting, revealing that, like adults, they develop causal illusions when the outcome is frequent. PMID:28898294

Neural processing of emotional-intensity predicts emotion regulation choice.

PubMed

Shafir, Roni; Thiruchselvam, Ravi; Suri, Gaurav; Gross, James J; Sheppes, Gal

2016-12-01

Emotional-intensity is a core characteristic of affective events that strongly determines how individuals choose to regulate their emotions. Our conceptual framework suggests that in high emotional-intensity situations, individuals prefer to disengage attention using distraction, which can more effectively block highly potent emotional information, as compared with engagement reappraisal, which is preferred in low emotional-intensity. However, existing supporting evidence remains indirect because prior intensity categorization of emotional stimuli was based on subjective measures that are potentially biased and only represent the endpoint of emotional-intensity processing. Accordingly, this study provides the first direct evidence for the role of online emotional-intensity processing in predicting behavioral regulatory-choices. Utilizing the high temporal resolution of event-related potentials, we evaluated online neural processing of stimuli's emotional-intensity (late positive potential, LPP) prior to regulatory-choices between distraction and reappraisal. Results showed that enhanced neural processing of intensity (enhanced LPP amplitudes) uniquely predicted (above subjective measures of intensity) increased tendency to subsequently choose distraction over reappraisal. Additionally, regulatory-choices led to adaptive consequences, demonstrated in finding that actual implementation of distraction relative to reappraisal-choice resulted in stronger attenuation of LPPs and self-reported arousal. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Cost-Effectiveness of the Integration of Nalmefene within the UK Healthcare System Treatment Pathway for Alcohol Dependence.

PubMed

Laramée, Philippe; Bell, Melissa; Irving, Adam; Brodtkorb, Thor-Henrik

2016-05-01

To assess the cost-effectiveness of integrating nalmefene within the treatment pathway for alcohol dependence recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in the UK. A Markov model, taking a UK NHS perspective, followed a cohort with alcohol dependence and high/very high drinking risk levels (HVHDRLs), who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue at HVHDRLs after initial assessment, for 5 years. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) from treatment with nalmefene plus psychosocial support versus psychosocial support alone were modelled. The consequent incidence of alcohol-attributable harmful events and disease progression, with the possibility of requiring other options or recurrent treatment, were captured. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support dominated psychosocial support alone, with lower costs and increased QALYs after 5 years. Savings are driven by the higher response to nalmefene, and the subsequent lower cost accumulation for alternatives. Nalmefene represents a highly cost-effective treatment option in this population. The analysis shows that integrating nalmefene within the current UK clinical treatment pathway for alcohol dependence could reduce the economic burden on the NHS by limiting harmful events and disease progression. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

[The Health Department of Sicily "Regional recommendations for hospital discharge and communication with patients after admission due to a cardiologic event" decree].

PubMed

Abrignani, Maurizio Giuseppe; De Luca, Giovanni; Gabriele, Michele; Tourkmani, Nidal

2014-06-01

Mortality and rehospitalizations still remain high after discharge for an acute cardiologic event. In this context, hospital discharge represents a potential pitfall for heart disease patients. In the setting of care transitions, the discharge letter is the main instrument of communication between hospital and primary care. Communication, besides, is an integral part of high-quality, patient-centered interventions aimed at improving the discharge process. Inadequate information at discharge significantly affects the quality of treatment compliance and the adoption of lifestyle modifications for an effective secondary prevention. The Health Department of Sicily, in 2013, established a task force with the aim to elaborate "Regional recommendations for hospital discharge and communication with patients after admission due to a cardiologic event", inviting to participate GICR-IACPR and many other scientific societies of cardiology and primary care, as discharge letter and communication are fundamental junctions of care transitions in cardiology. These recommendations have been published as a specific decree and contain: a structured model of discharge letter, which includes all of the parameters characterizing patients at high clinical risk, high thrombotic risk and low risk according to the Consensus document ANMCO/GICR-IACPR/GISE; is thus possible to identify these patients, choosing consequently the most appropriate follow-up pathways. A particular attention has been given to the "Medication Reconciliation" and to the identification of therapeutic targets; an educational Kit, with different forms on cardiac diseases, risk factors, drugs and lifestyle; a check-list about information given to the patient and caregivers. The "Recommendations" represent, in conclusion, the practical realization of the fruitful cooperation between scientific societies and political-administrative institutions that has been realized in Sicily in the last years.

Short-term alteration of biotic and abiotic components of the pelagic system in a shallow bay produced by a strong natural hypoxia event.

PubMed

Hernández-Miranda, Eduardo; Veas, Rodrigo; Anabalón, Valeria; Quiñones, Renato A

2017-01-01

In January 2008 there was an intensive and extensive upwelling event in the southern Humboldt Current System. This event produced an intrusion of water with low dissolved oxygen into Coliumo Bay, which caused massive mortality and the beaching of pelagic and benthic organisms, including zooplankton. During this event, which lasted 3 to 5 days, we studied and evaluated the effect of the hypoxic water in the bay on the abundance of macrozooplankton, nanoplankton and microphytoplankton, the concentration of several nutrients and hydrographic conditions. At the beginning of the hypoxia event the water column had very low dissolved oxygen concentrations (<0.5 mL O2 L-1), low temperatures and high salinity which are characteristics of the oxygen minimum zone from the Humboldt Current System. Redox, pH, nitrate, phosphate, silicate and chlorophyll-a values were the lowest, while nitrate and the phaeopigment values were the highest. The N:P ratio was below 16, and the abundance of nano- and microphytoplankton were at their lowest, the latter also with the lowest proportion of live organisms. Macrozooplankton had the greatest abundance during hypoxia, dominated mainly by crustacean, fish eggs and amphipods. The hypoxia event generated a strong short-term alteration of all biotic and abiotic components of the pelagic system in Coliumo Bay and the neighboring coastal zone. These negative effects associated with strong natural hypoxia events could have important consequences for the productivity and ecosystem functioning of the coastal zone of the Humboldt Current System if, as suggested by several models, winds favorable to upwelling should increase due to climate change. The effects of natural hypoxia in this coastal zone can be dramatic especially for pelagic and benthic species not adapted to endure conditions of low dissolved oxygen.

Traumatic events and depressive symptoms among youth in Southwest Nigeria: a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Omigbodun, Olayinka; Bakare, Kofoworola; Yusuf, Bidemi

2008-01-01

Traumatic experiences have dire consequences for the mental health of young persons. Despite high rates of traumatic experiences in some African cities, there are no reports for Nigerian youth. To investigate the pattern of traumatic events and their association with depressive symptoms among youth in Southwest Nigeria. This is a descriptive cross-sectional study of randomly selected youth in urban and rural schools in Southwest Nigeria. They completed self-reports on traumatic events and depressive symptoms using the Street Children's Project Questionnaire and the Youth DISC Predictive Scale (DPS). Of the 1,768 responses (88.4% response rate) entered into the analysis, 34% reported experiencing a traumatic situation. Following interpretative phenomenological analysis, 13 themes emerged. Frequently occurring traumatic events were 'road traffic accidents' (33.0%), 'sickness' (17.1%), 'lost or trapped' (11.2%) and 'armed robbery attack' (9.7%). A bad dream was described by 3.7%. Traumatic experiences were commoner in males (36.2%) than in females (31.6%) (x2 = 4.2; p = .041). Experiencing a traumatic event was associated with depressive symptoms (X2 = 37.98; p < .001), especially when the event directly affected the youth as in sexual assault or physical abuse. One-third of youth in Southwest Nigeria have described an experienced traumatic event. Road traffic accidents, armed robbery attacks, and communal disturbances depict the prevailing social environment, whereas 'bad dreams' revealed the influence of cultural beliefs. Policy makers must be aware of the social issues making an impact on the health of youth. Multi-agency interventions to improve the social environment and provide mental health services for traumatized young people are essential.

A practical approach to Events Medicine provision.

PubMed

Smith, Susan P; Cosgrove, Joseph F; Driscoll, Peter J; Smith, Andrew; Butler, John; Goode, Peter; Waldmann, Carl; Vallis, Christopher J; Topham, Fiona; Mythen, Michael Monty

2017-08-01

In the past three decades, mass casualty incidents have occurred worldwide at multiple sporting events and other mass gatherings. Organisational safety and healthcare provision can consequently be scrutinised post-event. Within the UK, such incidents in the 1980s provided incentives to improve medical services and subsequent high profile UK-based international sporting events (London Olympics and Paralympics 2012, Glasgow Commonwealth Games 2014, Rugby World Cup 2015) added a further catalyst for developing services. Furthermore in the aftermath of the abandoned France versus Germany association football match at the Stade de France ( Paris Terrorist Attacks, November 2015) and the 2016 UK report from HM Coroner on the Hillsborough Inquest , medical cover at sporting events is being further reviewed. Doctors providing spectator cover therefore need to have an awareness of their likely roles at sporting venues. Formal guidance exists in many countries for the provision of such cover but remains generic even though Events Medicine is increasingly recognised as a necessary service. The current evidence base is limited with best practice examples often anecdotally cited by acute care specialists (eg, emergency medicine) who provide cover. This article is therefore intended to present an overview for doctors of the knowledge and skills required to treat ill and injured spectators and enable them to adequately risk-assess venues in cooperation with other health and safety providers, including preparation for a major incident. It also gives guidance on how activity can be adequately assessed and how doctors can have management roles in Events Medicine. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Contribution of variable-speed pump hydro storage for power system dynamic performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, B.; Moreira, C.

2017-04-01

This paper presents the study of variable-speed Pump Storage Powerplant (PSP) in the Portuguese power system. It evaluates the progressive integration in three major locations and compares the power system performance following a severe fault event with consequent disconnection of non-Fault Ride-through (FRT) compliant Wind Farms (WF). To achieve such objective, a frequency responsive model was developed in PSS/E and was further used to substitute existing fixed-speed PSP. The results allow identifying a clear enhancement on the power system performance by the presence of frequency responsive variable-speed PSP, especially for the scenario presented, with high level of renewables integration.

Particle Acceleration by Cme-driven Shock Waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, Donald V.

1999-01-01

In the largest solar energetic particle (SEP) events, acceleration occurs at shock waves driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Peak particle intensities are a strong function of CME speed, although the intensities, spectra, and angular distributions of particles escaping the shock are highly modified by scattering on Alfven waves produced by the streaming particles themselves. Element abundances vary in complex ways because ions with different values of Q/A resonate with different parts of the wave spectrum, which varies with space and time. Just recently, we have begun to model these systematic variations theoretically and to explore other consequences of proton-generated waves.

'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

The Effects of Variations in El Niño and La Niña Patterns on World Food Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Robertson, R.; Zhu, T.; Steinschneider, S.; Brown, C. M.

2014-12-01

The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a variation in the sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and corresponding air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. During El Niño events (high SST), some global regions are wetter than normal, and others are dryer than normal. The inverse is true of La Niña events. El-Niño events are strongly correlated with drought extent and severity, especially in the Tropics. La Niña events are correlated with drought in other areas, though the global effect is less significant than that of El-Niños. GCM-based studies exploring changes in atmospheric mechanisms suggest that El Niño events may become more frequent in the next century, while those exploring changes in oceanic mechanisms suggest that La-Niñas may become more frequent. Overall, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report concludes that there is "low confidence" in our ability to project future ENSO patterns. In order to test the effect of changing ENSO patterns on global food production, we have developed a Markov Chain to generate multiple scenarios of ENSO frequency and strength, and explore each generated timeseries using the IMPACT Model, which is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. Results identify the potential consequences of changes in ENSO patterns on global food production and markets.

Solar energetic particles and space weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reames, Donald V.; Tylka, Allan J.; Ng, Chee K.

2001-02-01

The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of >10 MeV protons occur at an average rate of ~13 yr-1 near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of >100 MeV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the ``streaming limit.'' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a `delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to ~1 GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral `knee.' The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from ~10 MeV to ~1 GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars. .

Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

PubMed

Voss, Shauna J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Sampedro, Fernando; Snider, Tim; Goldsmith, Timothy; Hueston, William D; Lauer, Dale C; Halvorson, David A

2012-12-01

A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

Solar Energetic Particles and Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reames, Donald V.; Tylka, Allan J.; Ng, Chee K.

2001-01-01

The solar energetic particles (SEPs) of consequence to space weather are accelerated at shock waves driven out from the Sun by fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs). In the large events, these great shocks fill half of the heliosphere. SEP intensity profiles change appearance with longitude. Events with significant intensities of greater than ten MeV protons occur at an average rate of approx. 13 per year near solar maximum and several events with high intensities of > 100 McV protons occur each decade. As particles stream out along magnetic field lines from a shock near the Sun, they generate waves that scatter subsequent particles. At high intensities, wave growth throttles the flow below the 'streaming limit.' However, if the shock maintains its strength, particle intensities can rise above this limit to a peak when the shock itself passes over the observer creating a 'delayed' radiation hazard, even for protons with energies up to approx. one GeV. The streaming limit makes us blind to the intensities at the oncoming shock, however, heavier elements such as He, O, and Fe probe the shape of the wave spectrum, and variation in abundances of these elements allow us to evade the limit and probe conditions at the shock, with the aid of detailed modeling. At high energies, spectra steepen to form a spectral 'knee'. The location of the proton spectral knee can vary from approx. ten MeV to approx. one GeV, depending on shock conditions, greatly affecting the radiation hazard. Hard spectra are a serious threat to astronauts, placing challenging requirements for shielding, especially on long-duration missions to the moon or Mars.

ARE MACRO AND MICRO ENVIRONMENT AFFECTING MANAGEMENT OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES? A CASE FROM IRAN WITH PESTLE ANALYSIS.

PubMed

Atighechian, Golrokh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Aryankhesal, Aidin; Jahangiri, Katayoun

2016-07-24

Oil spill in fresh water can affect ecological processes and accordingly it can influence human health. Iran, due to having 58.8 % of the world oil reserves, is highly vulnerable to water contamination by oil products. The aim of this study was to determine environmental factors affecting the management of the oil spill into one of the river in Iran using the PESTLE analysis. This was a qualitative case study conducted in 2015 on an oil spill incident in Iran and its roots from a disaster management approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted for data collection. Seventy managers and staffs with those responsible or involved in oil spill incident management were recruited to the study. Qualitative content analysis approach was employed for the data analysis. Document analysis was used to collect additional information. Findings of the present study indicated that different factors affected the management of the event of oil spill onto one of the central river and consequently the management of drink water resources. Using this analysis, managers can plan for such events and develop scenarios for them to have better performance for the future events.

ARE MACRO AND MICRO ENVIRONMENT AFFECTING MANAGEMENT OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES? A CASE FROM IRAN WITH PESTLE ANALYSIS

PubMed Central

Atighechian, Golrokh; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Aryankhesal, Aidin; Jahangiri, Katayoun

2016-01-01

Introduction: Oil spill in fresh water can affect ecological processes and accordingly it can influence human health. Iran, due to having 58.8 % of the world oil reserves, is highly vulnerable to water contamination by oil products. Aim: The aim of this study was to determine environmental factors affecting the management of the oil spill into one of the river in Iran using the PESTLE analysis. Material and methods: This was a qualitative case study conducted in 2015 on an oil spill incident in Iran and its roots from a disaster management approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted for data collection. Seventy managers and staffs with those responsible or involved in oil spill incident management were recruited to the study. Qualitative content analysis approach was employed for the data analysis. Document analysis was used to collect additional information. Results: Findings of the present study indicated that different factors affected the management of the event of oil spill onto one of the central river and consequently the management of drink water resources. Using this analysis, managers can plan for such events and develop scenarios for them to have better performance for the future events. PMID:27698608

Northern Atlantic hurricanes possible connections with receded tides in Southern Brazilian and Uruguay Coast.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagen, M. T.; Azevedo, A. T.

2017-12-01

Harvey was formed around 17 august with maximum winds 40 miles/hour. At the moment, Irma formation started in 20 august faster becoming a hurricane category five. Some days before these two events, the Uruguay and Brazil coast suffered a recede in the oceans near Punta del Este and Rio Grande do Sul it happened in the week of 11 august. The energy accumulated in the recede of waters was not released by a tsunami and the water slowly was back to the shore. This event repeated at August 25, however at higher latitudes as in Parana and Sao Paulo. And consequent high tides in Chile again. The absence of a recurrent tsunami at the Brazilian coast indicates the energy accumulated from the recede ocean was released as a tsunami in the oceans, it became another huge hurricane formation as Jose and Katia. All those events pointed out for an atmospheric pressure disturbance on the Atlantic East Coast. In South America happened a suddenly increase at the atmospheric pressure which made the ocean waves receded for many days. A similar disturbance happened in Caribe area resulting in several huge hurricanes.

Event-related potentials during visual selective attention in children of alcoholics.

PubMed

van der Stelt, O; Gunning, W B; Snel, J; Kok, A

1998-12-01

Event-related potentials were recorded from 7- to 18-year-old children of alcoholics (COAs, n = 50) and age- and sex-matched control children (n = 50) while they performed a visual selective attention task. The task was to attend selectively to stimuli with a specified color (red or blue) in an attempt to detect the occurrence of target stimuli. COAs manifested a smaller P3b amplitude to attended-target stimuli over the parietal and occipital scalp than did the controls. A more specific analysis indicated that both the attentional relevance and the target properties of the eliciting stimulus determined the observed P3b amplitude differences between COAs and controls. In contrast, no significant group differences were observed in attention-related earlier occurring event-related potential components, referred to as frontal selection positivity, selection negativity, and N2b. These results represent neurophysiological evidence that COAs suffer from deficits at a late (semantic) level of visual selective information processing that are unlikely a consequence of deficits at earlier (sensory) levels of selective processing. The findings support the notion that a reduced visual P3b amplitude in COAs represents a high-level processing dysfunction indicating their increased vulnerability to alcoholism.

Posttraumatic growth following pregnancy termination for fetal abnormality: the predictive role of coping strategies and perinatal grief.

PubMed

Lafarge, Caroline; Mitchell, Kathryn; Fox, Pauline

2017-09-01

Research about termination for fetal abnormality (TFA) suggests that it is a traumatic event with potential negative psychological consequences. However, evidence also indicates that following traumatic events individuals may experience growth. Although TFA's negative psychological outcomes are well documented, little is known of the potential for growth following this event. Therefore, the study's objectives were to measure posttraumatic growth (PTG) post-TFA, examine the relationship between PTG, perinatal grief and coping, and determine the predictors of PTG. An online, retrospective survey was conducted with 161 women. Eligible participants were women over 18 who had undergone TFA. Participants were recruited from a support organisation. They completed the Brief COPE, Short Perinatal Grief Scale and Posttraumatic Growth Inventory. Data were analysed using regression analyses. Moderate levels of PTG were observed for "relating to others," "personal strengths" and "appreciation of life." "Positive reframing" was a significant predictor of PTG. Despite using mainly "adaptive" coping strategies, women's grief levels were high. "Adaptive" coping strategies such as, "positive reframing" are relevant to TFA. They may act as protective factors against distress and as foundations for growth, implicating that interventions such as Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, which aim to reframe women's experience, may be beneficial.

Cellular events in adhesion formation due to thermal trauma.

PubMed

Kaplun, A; Aronson, M; Halperin, B; Griffel, B

1984-01-01

Consequent to thermal traumatization of the intestinal wall of the mouse, histopathological events ensue which lead to peritoneal adhesion formation. In the first 48 h, the main pathological findings are of a necrotic and inflammatory nature, but subsequently fibroplasia is the main feature, as evidenced by the appearance of spindle-shaped cells followed by fibroblasts. Factors essential for and contributing to the formation of adhesions are described.

Modeling an unmitigated thermal quench event in a large field magnet in a DEMO reactor

DOE PAGES

Merrill, Brad J.

2015-03-25

The superconducting magnet systems of future fusion reactors, such as a Demonstration Power Plant (DEMO), will produce magnetic field energies in the 10 s of GJ range. The release of this energy during a fault condition could produce arcs that can damage the magnets of these systems. The public safety consequences of such events must be explored for a DEMO reactor because the magnets are located near the DEMO's primary radioactive confinement barrier, the reactor's vacuum vessel (VV). Great care will be taken in the design of DEMO's magnet systems to detect and provide a rapid field energy dump tomore » avoid any accidents conditions. During an event when a fault condition proceeds undetected, the potential of producing melting of the magnet exists. If molten material from the magnet impinges on the walls of the VV, these walls could fail, resulting in a pathway for release of radioactive material from the VV. A model is under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) called MAGARC to investigate the consequences of this accident in a large toroidal field (TF) coil. Recent improvements to this model are described in this paper, along with predictions for a DEMO relevant event in a toroidal field magnet.« less

The impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on PTSD symptoms and psychosocial functioning among older adults.

PubMed

Ogle, Christin M; Rubin, David C; Siegler, Ilene C

2013-11-01

The present study examined the impact of the developmental timing of trauma exposure on posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and psychosocial functioning in a large sample of community-dwelling older adults (N = 1,995). Specifically, we investigated whether the negative consequences of exposure to traumatic events were greater for traumas experienced during childhood, adolescence, young adulthood, midlife, or older adulthood. Each of these developmental periods is characterized by age-related changes in cognitive and social processes that may influence psychological adjustment following trauma exposure. Results revealed that older adults who experienced their currently most distressing traumatic event during childhood exhibited more severe symptoms of PTSD and lower subjective happiness compared with older adults who experienced their most distressing trauma after the transition to adulthood. Similar findings emerged for measures of social support and coping ability. The differential effects of childhood compared with later life traumas were not fully explained by differences in cumulative trauma exposure or by differences in the objective and subjective characteristics of the events. Our findings demonstrate the enduring nature of traumatic events encountered early in the life course and underscore the importance of examining the developmental context of trauma exposure in investigations of the long-term consequences of traumatic experiences.

Simulated Impacts of El Nino/Southern Oscillation on United States Water Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Brown, Robert A.; Rosenberg, Norman J.

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation alters global weather patterns with consequences for fresh water quality and supply. ENSO events impact regions and natural resource sectors around the globe. For example, in 1997-98, a strong El Ni?o brought warm ocean temperatures, flooding and record snowfall to the west coast of the US. Research on ENSO events and their impacts has improved long range weather predictions, potentially reducing the damage and economic cost of these anomalous weather patterns. Here, we simulate the impacts of four types of ENSO states on water resources in the conterminous United States. We distinguish between Neutral, El Ni?o,more » La Ni?a and strong El Ni?o years over the period of 1960-1989. Using climate statistics that characterize these ENSO states to drive the HUMUS water resources model, we examine the effects of 'pure' ENSO events, without complications from transition periods. Strong El Ni?o is not simply an amplification of El Ni?o; it leads to strikingly different consequences for climate and water resources.« less

In the heat of the moment: Effectively engaging scientists and diverging science in hazard events.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosnan, D. M.

2015-12-01

Scientists are increasingly called upon to use their expertise to help minimize disasters stemming from natural and human induced hazards ranging from volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis to oil-spills. Decision-makers want scientists who collect and analyze data to be able to predict the likelihood and severity of a hazard occurrence. When there is an event, they look to scientists to find ways to ameliorate the consequences. Science cannot predict with the accuracy sought by scientists and scientists themselves are rarely aware of the cascading consequences that they are being asked to minimize. Importantly too, scientists differ in their interpretation of data and uncertainties. While these differences are the spark of science they are often the bane of disaster decisions. This presentation addresses the applicatoin of science in the midst of hazard crises. Using examples from several global disasters it explores how different techniques to deal with scientific uncertainties and diverging conclusions among scientists has been more or less successful. The presentation addresses methods and opportunities exist for effectively applying science during hazard events.

Scrap metals industry perspective on radioactive materials.

PubMed

Turner, Ray

2006-11-01

With more than 80 reported/confirmed accidental melts worldwide since 1983 and still counting, potential contamination by radioactive materials remains as a major concern among recycled scrap and steel companies. Some of these events were catastrophic and have cost the industry millions of dollars in business and, at the same time, resulted in declining consumer confidence. It is also known that more events with confirmed radioactive contamination have occurred that involve mining of old steel slag and skull dumps. Consequently, the steel industry has since undergone massive changes that incurred unprecedented expenses through the installation of radiation monitoring systems in hopes of preventing another accidental melt. Despite such extraordinary efforts, accidental melts continue to occur and plague the industry. One recent reported/confirmed event occurred in the Republic of China in 2004, causing the usual lengthy shutdown for expensive decontamination efforts before the steel mill could resume operations. With this perspective in mind, the metal industry has a long-standing opposition to the release of radioactive materials of any kind to commerce for fear of contamination and the potential consequences.

Why Seemingly Trivial Events Sometimes Evoke Strong Emotional Reactions: The Role of Social Exchange Rule Violations.

PubMed

Leary, Mark R; Diebels, Kate J; Jongman-Sereno, Katrina P; Fernandez, Xuan Duong

2015-01-01

People sometimes display strong emotional reactions to events that appear disproportionate to the tangible magnitude of the event. Although previous work has addressed the role that perceived disrespect and unfairness have on such reactions, this study examined the role of perceived social exchange rule violations more broadly. Participants (N = 179) rated the effects of another person's behavior on important personal outcomes, the degree to which the other person had violated fundamental rules of social exchange, and their reactions to the event. Results showed that perceptions of social exchange rule violations accounted for more variance in participants' reactions than the tangible consequences of the event. The findings support the hypothesis that responses that appear disproportionate to the seriousness of the eliciting event are often fueled by perceived rule violations that may not be obvious to others.

PS1-41: Just Add Data: Implementing an Event-Based Data Model for Clinical Trial Tracking

PubMed Central

Fuller, Sharon; Carrell, David; Pardee, Roy

2012-01-01

Background/Aims Clinical research trials often have similar fundamental tracking needs, despite being quite variable in their specific logic and activities. A model tracking database that can be quickly adapted by a variety of studies has the potential to achieve significant efficiencies in database development and maintenance. Methods Over the course of several different clinical trials, we have developed a database model that is highly adaptable to a variety of projects. Rather than hard-coding each specific event that might occur in a trial, along with its logical consequences, this model considers each event and its parameters to be a data record in its own right. Each event may have related variables (metadata) describing its prerequisites, subsequent events due, associated mailings, or events that it overrides. The metadata for each event is stored in the same record with the event name. When changes are made to the study protocol, no structural changes to the database are needed. One has only to add or edit events and their metadata. Changes in the event metadata automatically determine any related logic changes. In addition to streamlining application code, this model simplifies communication between the programmer and other team members. Database requirements can be phrased as changes to the underlying data, rather than to the application code. The project team can review a single report of events and metadata and easily see where changes might be needed. In addition to benefitting from streamlined code, the front end database application can also implement useful standard features such as automated mail merges and to do lists. Results The event-based data model has proven itself to be robust, adaptable and user-friendly in a variety of study contexts. We have chosen to implement it as a SQL Server back end and distributed Access front end. Interested readers may request a copy of the Access front end and scripts for creating the back end database. Discussion An event-based database with a consistent, robust set of features has the potential to significantly reduce development time and maintenance expense for clinical trial tracking databases.

Weathering a Perfect Storm from Space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2016-01-01

Extreme space-weather events — intense solar and geomagnetic storms — have occurred in the past: most recently in 1859, 1921 and 1989. So scientists expect that, sooner or later, another extremely intense spaceweather event will strike Earth again. Such storms have the potential to cause widespread interference with and damage to technological systems. A National Academy of Sciences study projects that an extreme space-weather event could end up costing the American economy more than $1 trillion. The question now is whether or not we will take the actions needed to avoid such expensive consequences. Let’s assume that we do. Below is an imagined scenario of how, sometime in the future, an extreme space-weather event might play out.

Ionization of the Earth's Upper Atmosphere in Large Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, E.; Burrows, J.; Kallenrode, M.; von Koenig, M.; Kuenzi, K. F.; Quack, M.

2001-12-01

Energetic charged particles ionize the upper terrestrial atmosphere. Sofar, chemical consequences of precipitating particles have been discussed for solar protons with energies up to a few hundred MeV. We present a refined model for the interaction of energetic particles with the atmosphere based on a Monte-Carlo simulation. The model includes higher energies and other particle species, such as energetic solar electrons. Results are presented for well-known solar events, such as July 14, 2000, and are extrapolated to extremely large events, such as Carrington's white light flare in 1859, which from ice cores has been identified ass the largest impulsive NO3 event in the interval 1561 -- 1994 (McCracken et al., 2001).

Flattening of Caribbean coral reefs: region-wide declines in architectural complexity

PubMed Central

Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Dulvy, Nicholas K.; Gill, Jennifer A.; Côté, Isabelle M.; Watkinson, Andrew R.

2009-01-01

Coral reefs are rich in biodiversity, in large part because their highly complex architecture provides shelter and resources for a wide range of organisms. Recent rapid declines in hard coral cover have occurred across the Caribbean region, but the concomitant consequences for reef architecture have not been quantified on a large scale to date. We provide, to our knowledge, the first region-wide analysis of changes in reef architectural complexity, using nearly 500 surveys across 200 reefs, between 1969 and 2008. The architectural complexity of Caribbean reefs has declined nonlinearly with the near disappearance of the most complex reefs over the last 40 years. The flattening of Caribbean reefs was apparent by the early 1980s, followed by a period of stasis between 1985 and 1998 and then a resumption of the decline in complexity to the present. Rates of loss are similar on shallow (<6 m), mid-water (6–20 m) and deep (>20 m) reefs and are consistent across all five subregions. The temporal pattern of declining architecture coincides with key events in recent Caribbean ecological history: the loss of structurally complex Acropora corals, the mass mortality of the grazing urchin Diadema antillarum and the 1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation-induced worldwide coral bleaching event. The consistently low estimates of current architectural complexity suggest regional-scale degradation and homogenization of reef structure. The widespread loss of architectural complexity is likely to have serious consequences for reef biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and associated environmental services. PMID:19515663

Power-law scaling in daily rainfall patterns and consequences in urban stream discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Jeryang; Krueger, Elisabeth H.; Kim, Dongkyun; Rao, Suresh C.

2016-04-01

Poissonian rainfall has been frequently used for modelling stream discharge in a catchment at the daily scale. Generally, it is assumed that the daily rainfall depth is described by memoryless exponential distribution which is transformed to stream discharge, resulting in an analytical pdf for discharge [Gamma distribution]. While it is true that catchment hydrological filtering processes (censored by constant rate ET losses, and first-order recession) increases "memory", reflected in 1/f noise in discharge time series. Here, we show that for urban watersheds in South Korea: (1) the observation of daily rainfall depths follow power-law pdfs, and spectral slopes range between 0.2 ~ 0.4; and (2) the stream discharge pdfs have power-law tails. These observation results suggest that multiple hydro-climatic factors (e.g., non-stationarity of rainfall patterns) and hydrologic filtering (increasing impervious area; more complex urban drainage networks) influence the catchment hydrologic responses. We test the role of such factors using a parsimonious model, using different types of daily rainfall patterns (e.g., power-law distributed rainfall depth with Poisson distribution in its frequency) and urban settings to reproduce patterns similar to those observed in empirical records. Our results indicate that fractality in temporally up-scaled rainfall, and the consequences of large extreme events are preserved as high discharge events in urbanizing catchments. Implications of these results to modeling urban hydrologic responses and impacts on receiving waters are discussed.

The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

2015-10-01

The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

Modeling emission lag after photoexcitation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Kevin L.; Petillo, John J.; Ovtchinnikov, Serguei

A theoretical model of delayed emission following photoexcitation from metals and semiconductors is given. Its numerical implementation is designed for beam optics codes used to model photocathodes in rf photoinjectors. The model extends the Moments approach for predicting photocurrent and mean transverse energy as moments of an emitted electron distribution by incorporating time of flight and scattering events that result in emission delay on a sub-picosecond level. The model accounts for a dynamic surface extraction field and changes in the energy distribution and time of emission as a consequence of the laser penetration depth and multiple scattering events during transport.more » Usage in the Particle-in-Cell code MICHELLE to predict the bunch shape and duration with or without laser jitter is given. The consequences of delayed emission effects for ultra-short pulses are discussed.« less

Modeling emission lag after photoexcitation

DOE PAGES

Jensen, Kevin L.; Petillo, John J.; Ovtchinnikov, Serguei; ...

2017-10-28

A theoretical model of delayed emission following photoexcitation from metals and semiconductors is given. Its numerical implementation is designed for beam optics codes used to model photocathodes in rf photoinjectors. The model extends the Moments approach for predicting photocurrent and mean transverse energy as moments of an emitted electron distribution by incorporating time of flight and scattering events that result in emission delay on a sub-picosecond level. The model accounts for a dynamic surface extraction field and changes in the energy distribution and time of emission as a consequence of the laser penetration depth and multiple scattering events during transport.more » Usage in the Particle-in-Cell code MICHELLE to predict the bunch shape and duration with or without laser jitter is given. The consequences of delayed emission effects for ultra-short pulses are discussed.« less

The consequences of orofacial trauma resulting from violence: a study in Porto.

PubMed

Caldas, Inês Morais; Magalhães, Teresa; Afonso, Américo; Matos, Eduarda

2010-12-01

Orofacial injuries resulting from violence are a fairly common event. In Portugal, however, the impact of these injuries remains to be elucidated. This study aims to analyze the injuries and permanent consequences of orofacial trauma (in a three-dimensional perspective: organic, functional and situational), resulting from violence. To do so, a retrospective analysis of all violence-related forensic reports performed in the North Branch of the National Institute of Legal Medicine, during 2007, was carried out (n = 513). It was found that most victims were men with a mean age of 35.4 (SD = 15.1). Most aggressions were due to punches and/or kicks. The most frequent orofacial injuries were lip injuries (57.7%), followed by extra-oral soft tissue injuries (35.9%), gingival and oral mucosa injuries (29.2%), and teeth and/or periodontal injuries (17.5%). The most frequent long-term consequences concerned the teeth and periodontal area (14.0%), followed by the lip area (7.4%), and gingival and oral mucosa tissues (3.9%). In terms of the effect on functions and life situations, it was found that chewing and embarrassment in social life events were the most prevalent (43.6% and 83.6%, respectively). These results showed that orofacial trauma from violence-related events can damage a person's quality of life, especially those concerning the teeth area, as a result of their implications in normal function and in life situations. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Remarkable events from X ray emulsion chambers and multiple production at LHC energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Capdevielle, J. N.; Talai, M. C.; Attallah, R.

The CORSIKA programme and specific Monte Carlo collision generators are employed in the interpretation of X-ray emulsion chambers data on super gamma ray families at mountain altitude (Chacaltaya, Kanbala, Pamir...) and in the stratosphere (Concorde, balloons). The consequences of measurement conditions(energy thresholds levels...) are detailed to extract common features for the neutral and charged secondaries. The vertex is approached by invariant mass method, geometry, pseudo rapidity distributions , and factors. Sorting the gamma's coupled in the maximum of invariant histograms, we evaluate the multiplicity , , inelasticity behavior up to LHC energy. Attention is given to the penetration power of EAS which levels off one energy decade around the knee and observations related with the fragmentation region (high energy hadron and gamma spectra in EAS, intensity of families with halo's). Hints of new physics are considered around the intriguing alignments registrated in the energy band between colliders and LHC. Several events (stratosphere and mountain) exhibit coplanar emission at similar visible energy, suggesting the valence diquark breaking. Such violent breaking suppressing the leading cluster recombination might come from the rupture of the string under very high tension between the two partners of the diquark.

High-speed imaging optical techniques for shockwave and droplets atomization analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slangen, Pierre R.; Lauret, Pierre; Heymes, Frederic; Aprin, Laurent; Lecysyn, Nicolas

2016-12-01

Droplets atomization by shockwave can act as a consequence in domino effects on an industrial facility: aggression of a storage tank (projectile from previous event, for example) can cause leakage of hazardous material (toxic and flammable). As the accident goes on, a secondary event can cause blast generation, impacting the droplets and resulting in their atomization. Therefore, exchange surface increase impacts the evaporation rate. This can be an issue in case of dispersion of such a cloud. The experiments conducted in the lab generate a shockwave with an open-ended shock tube to break up liquid droplets. As the expected shockwave speed is about 400 m/s (˜Mach 1.2), the interaction with falling drops is very short. High-speed imaging is performed at about 20,000 fps. The shockwave is measured using both overpressure sensors: particle image velocimetry and pure in line shadowgraphy. The size of fragmented droplets is optically measured by direct shadowgraphy simultaneously in different directions. In these experiments, secondary breakups of a droplet into an important number of smaller droplets from the shockwave-induced flow are shown. The results of the optical characterizations are discussed in terms of shape, velocity, and size.

The 1874 Transit of Venus and the Popularisation of Astronomy in the USA as Reflected in the New York Times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cottam, Stella; Orchiston, Wayne; Stephenson, Richard

Given uncertainty surrounding the true value of the astronomical unit following the 1761 and 1769 transits of Venus the next transit, in 1874, offered hope for a substantial refinement in the value of this fundamental yardstick of Solar System astronomy. Part of the reason for this successful anticipated outcome was that both photography and spectroscopy would be applied to a transit of Venus for the first time. Consequently expectations were high, and this unusual event enjoyed a high public profile, thanks to frequent articles published in newspapers and in magazines. Because of the importance of this transit, many nations dispersed expeditions to Asia, the Pacific and the Australia-New Zealand region where the entire event could be seen. The USA sent out eight transit parties to this part of the world, and their activities and results, along with those of other nations' transit parties, were widely reported back home. In this paper we focus on the US expeditions, and the ways in which their activities were reported on back in the USA through the pages of the New York Times.

Climate Changes and Human Health: A Review of the Effect of Environmental Stressors on Cardiovascular Diseases Across Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms.

PubMed

Giorgini, Paolo; Di Giosia, Paolo; Petrarca, Marco; Lattanzio, Francesco; Stamerra, Cosimo Andrea; Ferri, Claudio

2017-01-01

Climate change is rapidly affecting all the regions of our planet. The most relevant example is global warming, which impacts on the earth's ecosystems, threatening human health. Other effects include extreme variations in temperature and increases in air pollution. These events may negatively impact mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the main effects of climate changes on cardiovascular diseases, reporting the epidemiological evidences and the biological mechanisms linking climate change consequences to hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and stroke. Up to now, findings suggest that humans acclimate under different weather conditions, even though extreme temperatures and higher levels of air pollution can influence health-related outcomes. In these cases, climate change adversely affects cardiovascular system and the high-risk subjects for cardiovascular diseases are those more exposed. Finally, we examine climate change implications on publich health and suggest adaptation strategies to monitor the high-risk population, and reduce the amount of hospital admissions associated to these events. Such interventions may minimize the costs of public health and reduce the mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Accident study of torrential protective structures based on the French RTM database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boncompain, Ingrid; Quefféléan, Yann; Carladous, Simon

2017-04-01

Torrential protective structures such as dikes, sediment traps, and check dams aim to reduce damage on elements at risk. They are built given a reference scenario. Nevertheless, this scenario can be exceeded or structures can fail because of their design or their ageing. We later talk about "accidents". The 1996 Aras disaster near Biescas (Spain) showed that consequences can be significant: 35 of 40 check dams were destroyed which involved 87 fatalities in a campsite. The accident probability and its consequences must be taken into account to analyze risk. Databases are useful tools to extract needed information. In France, the Restoration of Mountainous Areas department (RTM) has been public funded to develop a database, specific to mountainous areas (the Alps and the Pyrenees). Almost 12 500 check dams, 80 sediment traps and 600 dikes were registered in public forests in 2011. These samples were assumed significant for check dams and sediment traps but not for dikes because the most part was missing. In parallel, more than 31 000 torrential events were registered. Given these elements, an accident study was developed. We first extracted 1 925 events with accidents on protective structures: 39 % occurred during the 19th century and 53 % have occurred since 1900. Sediment traps were involved in 37 events, check dams in 336, and dikes in 1488. Then, a detailed analysis was specifically carried out for check dams. Event phenomena were extracted: torrential flood, liquid flood, snow avalanche, rock fall, and landslide. Accident typology was also specified: scouring, breaking of several check dams, total or partial destruction of one structure, overflowing. Causes of accidents on check dams were first analyzed. Torrential floods were responsible of 85 % of events (284 of 336) even if other phenomena must be also taken into account. Almost 45 % of events (152 of 336) involved total destruction of one or several check dams. Taking into account events for the last 150 years, 30 events were registered with destruction of several check dams: the annual probability of occurrence is 3.10-4. Analyzing consequences, only 11 of previously retained events (1925) were registered with fatalities. Finally, these quantitative elements were compared to qualitative feedback analysis from field practitioners and were illustrated with the 1987 Saint-Antoine event, in Modane. The total or partial destruction of 25 check dams released between 20 000 and 30 000 m3, which was one third of the estimated debris flow volume (85 000 m3) which damaged an industrial area. The lack of their maintenance partially explained this accident. As a conclusion, we must keep in mind that these results are limited to available data (all events have not been necessarily reported). Accidents on check dams are rare according to these data. It can be due to their general maintenance. This first analysis could be improved taking into account expert analysis, completing with information from other countries databases and formalizing the approach through a dependability analysis framework.

The partly Aalen's model for recurrent event data with a dependent terminal event.

PubMed

Chen, Chyong-Mei; Shen, Pao-Sheng; Chuang, Ya-Wen

2016-01-30

Recurrent event data are commonly observed in biomedical longitudinal studies. In many instances, there exists a terminal event, which precludes the occurrence of additional repeated events, and usually there is also a nonignorable correlation between the terminal event and recurrent events. In this article, we propose a partly Aalen's additive model with a multiplicative frailty for the rate function of recurrent event process and assume a Cox frailty model for terminal event time. A shared gamma frailty is used to describe the correlation between the two types of events. Consequently, this joint model can provide the information of temporal influence of absolute covariate effects on the rate of recurrent event process, which is usually helpful in the decision-making process for physicians. An estimating equation approach is developed to estimate marginal and association parameters in the joint model. The consistency of the proposed estimator is established. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed approach is appropriate for practical use. We apply the proposed method to a peritonitis cohort data set for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The emerging biofuel crop Camelina sativa retains a highly undifferentiated hexaploid genome structure

PubMed Central

Kagale, Sateesh; Koh, Chushin; Nixon, John; Bollina, Venkatesh; Clarke, Wayne E.; Tuteja, Reetu; Spillane, Charles; Robinson, Stephen J.; Links, Matthew G.; Clarke, Carling; Higgins, Erin E.; Huebert, Terry; Sharpe, Andrew G.; Parkin, Isobel A. P.

2014-01-01

Camelina sativa is an oilseed with desirable agronomic and oil-quality attributes for a viable industrial oil platform crop. Here we generate the first chromosome-scale high-quality reference genome sequence for C. sativa and annotated 89,418 protein-coding genes, representing a whole-genome triplication event relative to the crucifer model Arabidopsis thaliana. C. sativa represents the first crop species to be sequenced from lineage I of the Brassicaceae. The well-preserved hexaploid genome structure of C. sativa surprisingly mirrors those of economically important amphidiploid Brassica crop species from lineage II as well as wheat and cotton. The three genomes of C. sativa show no evidence of fractionation bias and limited expression-level bias, both characteristics commonly associated with polyploid evolution. The highly undifferentiated polyploid genome of C. sativa presents significant consequences for breeding and genetic manipulation of this industrial oil crop. PMID:24759634

High School Dropout in Proximal Context: The Triggering Role of Stressful Life Events.

PubMed

Dupéré, Véronique; Dion, Eric; Leventhal, Tama; Archambault, Isabelle; Crosnoe, Robert; Janosz, Michel

2018-03-01

Adolescents who drop out of high school experience enduring negative consequences across many domains. Yet, the circumstances triggering their departure are poorly understood. This study examined the precipitating role of recent psychosocial stressors by comparing three groups of Canadian high school students (52% boys; M age  = 16.3 years; N = 545): recent dropouts, matched at-risk students who remain in school, and average students. Results indicate that in comparison with the two other groups, dropouts were over three times more likely to have experienced recent acute stressors rated as severe by independent coders. These stressors occurred across a variety of domains. Considering the circumstances in which youth decide to drop out has implications for future research and for policy and practice. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

The Applicability of Incoherent Array Processing to IMS Seismic Array Stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibbons, S. J.

2012-04-01

The seismic arrays of the International Monitoring System for the CTBT differ greatly in size and geometry, with apertures ranging from below 1 km to over 60 km. Large and medium aperture arrays with large inter-site spacings complicate the detection and estimation of high frequency phases since signals are often incoherent between sensors. Many such phases, typically from events at regional distances, remain undetected since pipeline algorithms often consider only frequencies low enough to allow coherent array processing. High frequency phases that are detected are frequently attributed qualitatively incorrect backazimuth and slowness estimates and are consequently not associated with the correct event hypotheses. This can lead to missed events both due to a lack of contributing phase detections and by corruption of event hypotheses by spurious detections. Continuous spectral estimation can be used for phase detection and parameter estimation on the largest aperture arrays, with phase arrivals identified as local maxima on beams of transformed spectrograms. The estimation procedure in effect measures group velocity rather than phase velocity and the ability to estimate backazimuth and slowness requires that the spatial extent of the array is large enough to resolve time-delays between envelopes with a period of approximately 4 or 5 seconds. The NOA, AKASG, YKA, WRA, and KURK arrays have apertures in excess of 20 km and spectrogram beamforming on these stations provides high quality slowness estimates for regional phases without additional post-processing. Seven arrays with aperture between 10 and 20 km (MJAR, ESDC, ILAR, KSRS, CMAR, ASAR, and EKA) can provide robust parameter estimates subject to a smoothing of the resulting slowness grids, most effectively achieved by convolving the measured slowness grids with the array response function for a 4 or 5 second period signal. The MJAR array in Japan recorded high SNR Pn signals for both the 2006 and 2009 North Korea nuclear tests but, due to signal incoherence, failed to contribute to the automatic event detections. It is demonstrated that the smoothed incoherent slowness estimates for the MJAR Pn phases for both tests indicate unambiguously the correct type of phase and a backazimuth estimate within 5 degrees of the great-circle backazimuth. The detection part of the algorithm is applicable to all IMS arrays, and spectrogram-based processing may offer a reduction in the false alarm rate for high frequency signals. Significantly, the local maxima of the scalar functions derived from the transformed spectrogram beams provide good estimates of the signal onset time. High frequency energy is of greater significance for lower event magnitudes and in, for example, the cavity decoupling detection evasion scenario. There is a need to characterize propagation paths with low attenuation of high frequency energy and situations in which parameter estimation on array stations fails.

Depersonalization/derealization during acute social stress in social phobia.

PubMed

Hoyer, Juergen; Braeuer, David; Crawcour, Stephen; Klumbies, Elisabeth; Kirschbaum, Clemens

2013-03-01

The present study aimed at investigating how frequently and intensely depersonalization/derealization symptoms occur during a stressful performance situation in social phobia patients vs. healthy controls, as well as testing hypotheses about the psychological predictors and consequences of such symptoms. N=54 patients with social phobia and N=34 control participants without mental disorders were examined prior to, during, and after a standardized social performance situation (Trier Social Stress Test, TSST). An adapted version of the Cambridge Depersonalization Scale was applied along with measures of social anxiety, depression, personality, participants' subjective appraisal, safety behaviours, and post-event processing. Depersonalization symptoms were more frequent in social phobia patients (92%) than in controls (52%). Specifically in patients, they were highly positively correlated with safety behaviours and post-event-processing, even after controlling for social anxiety. The role of depersonalization/derealization in the maintenance of social anxiety should be more thoroughly recognized and explored. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resource Use After Unwanted Sexual Experiences in Undergraduates: A Comprehensive Evaluation of Factors Related to the Decision to Seek Help.

PubMed

Fleming, C J Eubanks; Lynch, Kyle A; Hakas, Maggie B; Belanger, Elizabeth

2018-06-01

The risk for sexual victimization in college is high, and although there can be significant mental and physical consequences for the survivor, resource utilization for this issue is extremely low. The current study used the frameworks of both the ecological model and the theory of planned behavior to examine factors related to resource use in undergraduate survivors of unwanted sexual experiences. The sample consisted of 217 undergraduates who reported at least one unwanted sexual experience while in college (89% female, 76.5% Caucasian, M age 19.6). Data were collected in an online survey from a private liberal arts college, and were analyzed using decision tree modeling. Results suggested that resource use was less related to demographic or event characteristics, but rather related to victim response to the event as well as perceptions about control over potential resource use. In addition to key assault prevention efforts, it is thus important to also support survivor mental health and self-efficacy postassault.

Palæo- and Neoproterozoic granitoids and rhyolites from the West Congolian Belt (Gabon, Congo, Cabinda, north Angola): chemical composition and geotectonic implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicat, J.-P.; Pouclet, A.

2000-11-01

Various Palæo- and Neoproterozoic granitoid bodies and related rhyolites are located in the West Congolian Belt. The Palæoproterozoic granitoids, dated around 2 Ga, exhibit an Archæan-type tonalite-trondhjemite-granodiorite suite chemical signature and are related to the Eburnean tectnno-magmatic event. In contrast, Neoproterozoic granitoids and rhyolites, dated around 1 Ga, have chemical geotectonic signatures that range from orogenic to intraplate (Nb-negative anomaly, large ion lithophile element enrichment and high field strength element depletion). However, a late Kibaran orogenic event (1.35-1.00 Ga) is unknown in this area. The Neoproterozoic magmatism is interpreted as a consequence of the initiation of pre-Pan-African rifting, which implies the formation or the reactivation of major crustal strike-slip faults with asthenospheric upwelling and the generation of a thermal anomaly. This thermal anomaly could have been responsible for magmatic processes involving the lower crust, as encountered in post-orogenic environments.

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

PubMed

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Perceived racism and alcohol consequences among African American and Caucasian college students.

PubMed

Grekin, Emily R

2012-12-01

Few studies have assessed relationships between perceived racism, racism-related stress, and alcohol problems. The current study examined these relationships within the context of tension reduction models of alcohol consumption. Participants were 94 African American and 189 Caucasian college freshmen who completed an online survey assessing perceived racism, alcohol consequences, alcohol consumption, negative affect, and deviant behavior. Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated that racism-related stress predicted alcohol consequences for both African American and Caucasian college students, even after controlling for alcohol consumption, negative affect, and behavioral deviance. The frequency of racist events predicted alcohol consequences for Caucasian but not African American students. These findings highlight the need to address racism and racism-related stress in college-based alcohol prevention and intervention efforts. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

The intensity signature of induced seismicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Gail M.; Wald, David J.; Worden, Charles; Quitoriano, Vince

2018-01-01

We analyze a comprehensive database of ∼63,000">∼63,000 geocoded community intensity observations from >400">>400 earthquakes of moment magnitude M≥3.5">M≥3.5 in Oklahoma from 2010 to 2016 to define the intensity signature of induced events. We show that natural and induced events have similar average intensities within 10 km of the epicenter. At greater distances, induced events have low‐average intensities compared with deeper natural events. These trends are predictable based on ground‐motion prediction equations. They are a consequence of two focal‐depth effects that have offsetting impacts on the strength of ground motion: (1) the epicenter is near the source for shallow events, and (2) the stress parameter scales with focal depth.

Singapore Haze in June 2013: Consequences of Land-Use Change, Fires, and Anomalous Meteorology for Air Quality in Equatorial Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koplitz, S.; Mickley, L. J.; Jacob, D. J.; Kim, P. S.; DeFries, R. S.; Marlier, M. E.; Schwartz, J.; Buonocore, J.; Myers, S. S.

2014-12-01

Much of Equatorial Asia is currently undergoing extensive burning from agricultural fires and rapid land-use conversion to oil palm plantations, with substantial consequences for air quality and health. In June 2013, Singapore experienced severe smoke levels, with surface particulate matter concentrations greater than ten times average. Unlike past haze events in Singapore (e.g. September 1997 and October 2006), the June 2013 pollution event occurred during El Nino-neutral conditions. Using a combination of observations and chemical transport modeling, we examine relationships between sea surface temperatures, wind fields, fire patterns, and aerosol optical depth during the June 2013 haze event. We find reasonable agreement between satellite measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the MODIS and MISR instruments and in-situ measurements from the AERONET stations across Equatorial Asia for 2005-2010 (MODIS R2 = 0.39, bias = -1.6%; MISR R2 = 0.27, bias = -42%). However, AOD observations fail to capture the Singapore pollution event of June 2013. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem model suggest that anomalously high dust concentrations during June 2013 may have impaired the ability of MODIS to monitor the haze over Singapore. In contrast, we show that the OMI Aerosol Index can effectively capture these smoke events and may be used to monitor future haze episodes in Equatorial Asia. We find that the June 2013 haze in Singapore may be attributed to anomalously strong westerlies carrying smoke from Riau Province in Indonesia. These westerlies, 5 m s-1 faster than the 2005-2010 mean June winds, are consistent with the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) crossing the Maritime Continent at that time. These westerlies may have been further enhanced by a negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), an east-west gradient in sea surface temperature anomalies across the Indian Ocean, with cold sea surface temperature anomalies (-3 C°) off the Arabian coast and warm anomalies (+2 C°) in the East. These conditions appear to provide an important meteorological pathway by which land-use change fires in Indonesia may affect the health of large populations. Our work suggests that this pathway should be taken into account in the development of strategies to curb fire-related air pollution and health effects in Indonesia.

Implementation of methane cycling for deep-time global warming simulations with the DCESS Earth system model (version 1.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaffer, Gary; Fernández Villanueva, Esteban; Rondanelli, Roberto; Olaf Pepke Pedersen, Jens; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Huber, Matthew

2017-11-01

Geological records reveal a number of ancient, large and rapid negative excursions of the carbon-13 isotope. Such excursions can only be explained by massive injections of depleted carbon to the Earth system over a short duration. These injections may have forced strong global warming events, sometimes accompanied by mass extinctions such as the Triassic-Jurassic and end-Permian extinctions 201 and 252 million years ago, respectively. In many cases, evidence points to methane as the dominant form of injected carbon, whether as thermogenic methane formed by magma intrusions through overlying carbon-rich sediment or from warming-induced dissociation of methane hydrate, a solid compound of methane and water found in ocean sediments. As a consequence of the ubiquity and importance of methane in major Earth events, Earth system models for addressing such events should include a comprehensive treatment of methane cycling but such a treatment has often been lacking. Here we implement methane cycling in the Danish Center for Earth System Science (DCESS) model, a simplified but well-tested Earth system model of intermediate complexity. We use a generic methane input function that allows variation in input type, size, timescale and ocean-atmosphere partition. To be able to treat such massive inputs more correctly, we extend the model to deal with ocean suboxic/anoxic conditions and with radiative forcing and methane lifetimes appropriate for high atmospheric methane concentrations. With this new model version, we carried out an extensive set of simulations for methane inputs of various sizes, timescales and ocean-atmosphere partitions to probe model behavior. We find that larger methane inputs over shorter timescales with more methane dissolving in the ocean lead to ever-increasing ocean anoxia with consequences for ocean life and global carbon cycling. Greater methane input directly to the atmosphere leads to more warming and, for example, greater carbon dioxide release from land soils. Analysis of synthetic sediment cores from the simulations provides guidelines for the interpretation of real sediment cores spanning the warming events. With this improved DCESS model version and paleo-reconstructions, we are now better armed to gauge the amounts, types, timescales and locations of methane injections driving specific, observed deep-time, global warming events.

Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

2013-12-01

Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization. Integration of these low-probability, high-impact events in DRR requires an approach focused on resilience and antifragility, as well as the ability to cope with, and recover from failure of infrastructure and social systems. Resilience does not primarily result from the robustness of infrastructure but mainly is a function of the social capital. While it is important to understand the hazards (the contribution of geosciences), it is equally important to understand the processes that let us cope with the hazards, or lead to failure (the contribution of social sciences and engineering). For the latter, we need a joint effort of social sciences and engineering and a revised science-policy relationship. Democratizing knowledge about extreme geohazards is very important in order to inform deliberations of DRR through increased resilience and reduced fragility. The current science-society dialog is not fully capable of supporting deliberative governance. Most scientific knowledge is created independent of those who could put it to use, and a transition to co-design and co-development of knowledge involving a broad stakeholder base is necessary for DRR, particularly for extreme events. This transition may have the consequence of more responsibility and even liability for science.

Will Climate Change the Future of Homeland Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

coming decades.”6 The global consequences of this finding “could produce drastic effects , such as the collapse of ice sheets, a rapid rise in sea...events that “occur over time and slowly deteriorate a society’s and a population’s capacity to withstand the effects of the hazard or threat.”9 The...legislation, strategies, policies, and practice in disaster consequence management becomes evident. This cause and effect model is primarily based on fast

Multidimensional Risk Analysis: MRISK

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCollum, Raymond; Brown, Douglas; O'Shea, Sarah Beth; Reith, William; Rabulan, Jennifer; Melrose, Graeme

2015-01-01

Multidimensional Risk (MRISK) calculates the combined multidimensional score using Mahalanobis distance. MRISK accounts for covariance between consequence dimensions, which de-conflicts the interdependencies of consequence dimensions, providing a clearer depiction of risks. Additionally, in the event the dimensions are not correlated, Mahalanobis distance reduces to Euclidean distance normalized by the variance and, therefore, represents the most flexible and optimal method to combine dimensions. MRISK is currently being used in NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project o assess risk and prioritize scarce resources.

Adolescents who perceive fewer consequences of risk-taking choose to switch off games later at night.

PubMed

Reynolds, Chelsea M; Gradisar, Michael; Kar, Kellyann; Perry, Ashleigh; Wolfe, Jasper; Short, Michelle A

2015-05-01

Technology use by adolescents close to bedtime commonly leads to sleep problems, and individual factors predicting those at heightened risk are under studied. We investigated whether risk-taking perceptions influenced length of adolescent technology use at bedtime and whether being aware of time moderated this association. We recruited 16 males and five females, with a mean age of 17.6 years, from school and university populations to assess adolescent technology use and bedtimes. They were assessed for trait risk-taking using the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events questionnaire and had unrestrained access to a video game on two separate nights, counterbalanced for clock present or clock absent conditions. The adolescents' self-selected bedtime provided a measure of the level of technology use and was the dependent variable. Adolescents who perceived fewer negative consequences of risky activities on the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events played the video game longer and went to bed later than those who perceived more negative consequences (p = 0.03). There was no influence on bedtimes from perceived benefits of risk-taking or clock presence. Adolescents who perceived fewer negative consequences of risk-taking were more likely to stay up later using technology, facing a heightened risk of displaced sleep. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High Temperature Extremes - Will They Transform Structure of Avian Assemblages in the Desert Southwest?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mutiibwa, D.; Albright, T. P.; Wolf, B. O.; Mckechnie, A. E.; Gerson, A. R.; Talbot, W. A.; Sadoti, G.; O'Neill, J.; Smith, E.

2014-12-01

Extreme weather events can alter ecosystem structure and function and have caused mass mortality events in animals. With climate change, high temperature extremes are increasing in frequency and magnitude. To better understand the consequences of climate change, scientists have frequently employed correlative models based on species occurrence records. However, these approaches may be of limited utility in the context of extremes, as these are often outside historical ranges and may involve strong non-linear responses. Here we describe work linking physiological response informed by experimental data to geospatial climate datasets in order to mechanistically model the dynamics of dehydration risk to dessert passerine birds. Specifically, we modeled and mapped the occurrence of current (1980-2013) high temperature extremes and evaporative water loss rates for eight species of passerine birds ranging in size from 6.5-75g in the US Southwest portion of their range. We then explored the implications of a 4° C warming scenario. Evaporative water loss (EWL) across a range of high temperatures was measured in heat-acclimated birds captured in the field. We used the North American Land Data Assimilation System 2 dataset to obtain hourly estimates of EWL with a 14-km spatial grain. Assuming lethal dehydration occurs when water loss reaches 15% of body weight, we then produced maps of total daily EWL and time to lethal dehydration based on both current data and future scenarios. We found that milder events capable of producing dehydration in passerine birds over four or more hours were not uncommon over the Southwest, but rapid dehydration conditions (<3 hours) were rare. Under the warming scenario, the frequency and extent of dehydration events expanded greatly, often affecting areas several times larger than in present-day climate. Dehydration risk was especially high among smaller bodied passerines due to their higher mass-specific rates of water loss. Even after accounting for the moderating effects of microsite and topoclimatic refugia, the increase in occurrence of lethal dehydration risk is cause for concern. In particular, our results suggest that smaller bodied passerines may have difficulty in avoiding extirpation over portions of their current range in the desert southwest.

The role and production of polar/subtropical jet superpositions in two high-impact weather events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winters, Andrew C.

Careful observational work has demonstrated that the tropopause is typically characterized by a three-step pole-to-equator structure, with each break between steps in the tropopause height associated with a jet stream. While the two jet streams, the polar and subtropical jets, typically occupy different latitude bands, their separation can occasionally vanish, resulting in a vertical superposition of the two jets. A cursory examination of a number of historical and recent high-impact weather events over North America and the North Atlantic indicates that superposed jets can be an important component of their evolution. Consequently, this dissertation examines two recent jet superposition cases, the 18--20 December 2009 Mid-Atlantic Blizzard and the 1--3 May 2010 Nashville Flood, in an effort (1) to determine the specific influence that a superposed jet can have on the development of a high-impact weather event and (2) to illuminate the processes that facilitated the production of a superposition in each case. An examination of these cases from a basic-state variable and PV inversion perspective demonstrates that elements of both the remote and local synoptic environment are important to consider while diagnosing the development of a jet superposition. Specifically, the process of jet superposition begins with the remote production of a cyclonic (anticyclonic) tropopause disturbance at high (low) latitudes. The cyclonic circulation typically originates at polar latitudes, while organized tropical convection can encourage the development of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly within the tropical upper-troposphere. The concurrent advection of both anomalies towards middle latitudes subsequently allows their individual circulations to laterally displace the location of the individual tropopause breaks. Once the two circulation anomalies position the polar and subtropical tropopause breaks in close proximity to one another, elements within the local environment, such as proximate convection or transverse vertical circulations, can work to further deform the tropopause and to aid in the production of the two-step tropopause structure characteristic of a superposed jet. The analysis also demonstrates that the intensified transverse vertical circulation that accompanies a superposed jet serves as the primary mechanism through which it can influence the evolution of a high-impact weather event.

A high-resolution record of Holocene millennial-scale oscillations of surface water, foraminiferal paleoecology and sediment redox chemistry in the SE Brazilian margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, B. B.; Barbosa, C. F.; Albuquerque, A. L.; Piotrowski, A. M.

2014-12-01

Holocene millennial-scale oscillations and Bond Events (Bond et al. 1997) are well reported in the North Atlantic as consequence of fresh water input and weaking of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). It has been hypothesized that the effect of weaking of AMOC would lead to warming in the South Atlantic due to "heat piracy", causing surface waters to warm and a reorganization of surface circulation. There are few reconstructions of AMOC strength in the South Atlantic, and none with a high resolution Holocene record of changes of productivity and the biological pump. We reconstruct past changes in the surface water mass hydrography, productivity, and sediment redox changes in high-resolution in the core KCF10-01B, located 128 mbsl water depth off Cabo Frio, Brazil, a location where upwelling is strongly linked to surface ocean hydrography. We use Benthic Foraminiferal Accumulation Rate (BFAR) to reconstruct productivity, which reveals a 1.3kyr cyclicity during the mid- and late-Holocene. The geochemistry of trace and rare earth elements on foraminiferal Fe-Mn oxide coatings show changes in redox-sensitive elements indicating that during periods of high productivity there were more reducing conditions in sediment porewaters, producing a Ce anomaly and reduction and re-precipitation of Mn oxides. Bond events 1-7 were identified by a productivity increase along with reducing sediment conditions which was likely caused by Brazil Current displacement offshore allowing upwelling of the nutritive bottom water South Atlantic Central Waters (SACW) to the euphotic zone and a stronger local biological pump. In a global context, correlation with other records show that this occurred during weakened AMOC and southward displacement of the ITCZ. We conclude that Bond climatic events and millennial-scale variability of AMOC caused sea surface hydrographic changes off the Brazilian Margin leading to biological and geochemical changes recorded in coastal records. The 8.2kyr climatic event is reported here for the first time in South American coastal sediment records as high productivity conditions and a rapid change in porewater redox chemistry.

The effects of retrieval ease on health issue judgments: implications for campaign strategies.

PubMed

Chang, Chingching

2010-12-01

This paper examines the effects of retrieving information about a health ailment on judgments of the perceived severity of the disease and self-efficacy regarding prevention and treatment. The literature on metacognition suggests that recall tasks render two types of information accessible: the retrieved content, and the subjective experience of retrieving the content. Both types of information can influence judgments. Content-based thinking models hold that the more instances of an event people can retrieve, the higher they will estimate the frequency of the event to be. In contrast, experience-based thinking models suggest that when people experience difficulty in retrieving information regarding an event, they rate the event as less likely to occur. In the first experiment, ease of retrieval was manipulated by asking participants to list either a high or low number of consequences of an ailment. As expected, retrieval difficulty resulted in lower perceived disease severity. In the second experiment, ease of retrieval was manipulated by varying the number of disease prevention or treatment measures participants attempted to list. As predicted, retrieval difficulty resulted in lower self-efficacy regarding prevention and treatment. In experiment three, when information regarding a health issue was made accessible by exposure to public service announcements (PSAs), ease-of-retrieval effects were attenuated. Finally, in experiment four, exposure to PSAs encouraged content-based judgments when the issue was of great concern.

The threat simulation theory of the evolutionary function of dreaming: Evidence from dreams of traumatized children.

PubMed

Valli, Katja; Revonsuo, Antti; Pälkäs, Outi; Ismail, Kamaran Hassan; Ali, Karzan Jalal; Punamäki, Raija-Leena

2005-03-01

The threat simulation theory of dreaming (TST) () states that dream consciousness is essentially an ancient biological defence mechanism, evolutionarily selected for its capacity to repeatedly simulate threatening events. Threat simulation during dreaming rehearses the cognitive mechanisms required for efficient threat perception and threat avoidance, leading to increased probability of reproductive success during human evolution. One hypothesis drawn from TST is that real threatening events encountered by the individual during wakefulness should lead to an increased activation of the system, a threat simulation response, and therefore, to an increased frequency and severity of threatening events in dreams. Consequently, children who live in an environment in which their physical and psychological well-being is constantly threatened should have a highly activated dream production and threat simulation system, whereas children living in a safe environment that is relatively free of such threat cues should have a weakly activated system. We tested this hypothesis by analysing the content of dream reports from severely traumatized and less traumatized Kurdish children and ordinary, non-traumatized Finnish children. Our results give support for most of the predictions drawn from TST. The severely traumatized children reported a significantly greater number of dreams and their dreams included a higher number of threatening dream events. The dream threats of traumatized children were also more severe in nature than the threats of less traumatized or non-traumatized children.

Alternative RNA processing events in human calcitonin/calcitonin gene-related peptide gene expression.

PubMed Central

Jonas, V; Lin, C R; Kawashima, E; Semon, D; Swanson, L W; Mermod, J J; Evans, R M; Rosenfeld, M G

1985-01-01

Two mRNAs generated as a consequence of alternative RNA processing events in expression of the human calcitonin gene encode the protein precursors of either calcitonin or calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP). Both calcitonin and CGRP RNAs and their encoded peptide products are expressed in the human pituitary and in medullary thyroid tumors. On the basis of sequence comparison, it is suggested that both the calcitonin and CGRP exons arose from a common primordial sequence, suggesting that duplication and rearrangement events are responsible for the generation of this complex transcription unit. Images PMID:3872459

Screen or not to screen for peripheral arterial disease: guidance from a decision model.

PubMed

Vaidya, Anil; Joore, Manuela A; Ten Cate-Hoek, Arina J; Ten Cate, Hugo; Severens, Johan L

2014-01-29

Asymptomatic Peripheral Arterial Disease (PAD) is associated with greater risk of acute cardiovascular events. This study aims to determine the cost-effectiveness of one time only PAD screening using Ankle Brachial Index (ABI) test and subsequent anti platelet preventive treatment (low dose aspirin or clopidogrel) in individuals at high risk for acute cardiovascular events compared to no screening and no treatment using decision analytic modelling. A probabilistic Markov model was developed to evaluate the life time cost-effectiveness of the strategy of selective PAD screening and consequent preventive treatment compared to no screening and no preventive treatment. The analysis was conducted from the Dutch societal perspective and to address decision uncertainty, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. Results were based on average values of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations and using discount rates of 1.5% and 4% for effects and costs respectively. One way sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the two most influential model parameters affecting model outputs. Then, a two way sensitivity analysis was conducted for combinations of values tested for these two most influential parameters. For the PAD screening strategy, life years and quality adjusted life years gained were 21.79 and 15.66 respectively at a lifetime cost of 26,548 Euros. Compared to no screening and treatment (20.69 life years, 15.58 Quality Adjusted Life Years, 28,052 Euros), these results indicate that PAD screening and treatment is a dominant strategy. The cost effectiveness acceptability curves show 88% probability of PAD screening being cost effective at the Willingness To Pay (WTP) threshold of 40000 Euros. In a scenario analysis using clopidogrel as an alternative anti-platelet drug, PAD screening strategy remained dominant. This decision analysis suggests that targeted ABI screening and consequent secondary prevention of cardiovascular events using low dose aspirin or clopidogrel in the identified patients is a cost-effective strategy. Implementation of targeted PAD screening and subsequent treatment in primary care practices and in public health programs is likely to improve the societal health and to save health care costs by reducing catastrophic cardiovascular events.

Cascading processes and interactions in torrent catchments and their influence on the damage pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keiler, Margreth; Gebbers, David

2014-05-01

Research on single geomorphological processes during damaging events has a long history; however, comprehensive documentations and analyses of the events have been conducted not until the late 1980s. Thus, for highly damaging events insights about triggering, the evolution and the impacts of processes during an event and the resulting damage were produced. Though, in the majority of cases the processes were studied in a well-defined procedure of one disciplinary focus. These focused studies neglect mutable influences which may alter the sequence of the process or the event. During damaging events multiple geomorphological processes are active which leads to the assumption that they have a certain impact on each other and the course of damaging effect. Consequently, for a comprehensive hazard and risk analysis all processes of a catchment have to be analysed and evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively (MARZOCCHI, 2007). Although the demand for a sophisticated risk management is increasing, the research on interactions as well as on physical vulnerability to multiple hazards, including the different processes impact effects, is still very limited (KAPPES et al., 2010, 2011). The challenges in this field are the quantity of data needed, and furthermore to conduct this kind of analysis is very complex and complicated (KAPPES et al. 2012). Yet, knowledge about possible interactions and resulting impact effects could significantly contribute to the reduction of risk in a region. The objective of this study is to analyse, i) how geomorphological processes interact with each other and with other factors of the surrounding during a damaging event, ii) what influences those interactions have on the resulting damage of the event and iii) whether or not different events are comparable in terms of those interactions and their impacts. To meet these objectives, 15 damaging torrent events, which occurred between 2000 and 2011 in the Bernese Oberland and the Pennine Alps, Switzerland, were analysed on the basis of event reports and general catchment parameters. The interactions were classified into different categories regarding a process and the interacting counterpart (another process, with structures or disposition) and the temporal and spatial extent in which these interactions occurred. Additionally, positive and negative feedbacks of the processes were considered. First results highlight that some types of interaction can be extracted in several events and that their temporal and spatial extent is comparable. However, the analysis indicates that single interaction exhibits multi-path consequences which are a challenge for general propositions of interactions influencing damage patterns. In the further step of this study, clusters of interactions which could occur in different events in similar ways are analysed in more detail. REFERENCES Kappes, M.S., Papathoma-Köhle, M. & Keiler, M. 2011: Assessing physical vulnerability for multi-hazards using an indicator-based methodology, Applied Geography, 32, 577-590. Kappes, M.S., Keiler, M. & Glade, T. 2010: From single- to multi-hazard risk analyses: a concept addressing emerging challenges. In: Malet, J.-P.; Glade, T. & N. Casagli (eds.) Mountain Risks: bringing science to society. Proceedings of the 'Mountain Risks' International Conference, Firenze, Italy. Strasbourg. CERG Editions: 351-356 Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., von Eleverfeldt, K., Glade, T. 2012: Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: a review. NAT HAZARDS 64: 1925-1958. Marzocchi, W., Mastellone, M.L., Ruocco, A. 2009: Principles of multi-risk assessment: Interaction amongst natural and man-induced risks. European Commission. Brussels.

The synergistic effect of manure supply and extreme precipitation on surface water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motew, Melissa; Booth, Eric G.; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Chen, Xi; Kucharik, Christopher J.

2018-04-01

Over-enrichment of phosphorus (P) in agroecosystems contributes to eutrophication of surface waters. In the Midwest US and elsewhere, climate change is increasing the frequency of high-intensity precipitation events, which can serve as a primary conduit of P transport within watersheds. Despite uncertainty in their estimates, process-based watershed models are important tools that help characterize watershed hydrology and biogeochemistry and scale up important mechanisms affecting water quality. Using one such model developed for an agricultural watershed in Wisconsin, we conducted a 2 × 2 factorial experiment to test the effects of (high/low) terrestrial P supply (PSUP) and (high/low) precipitation intensity (PREC) on surface water quality. Sixty-year simulations were conducted for each of the four runs, with annual results obtained for watershed average P yield and concentration at the field scale (220 × 220 m grid cells), P load and concentration at the stream scale, and summertime total P concentration (TP) in Lake Mendota. ANOVA results were generated for the 2 × 2 factorial design, with PSUP and PREC treated as categorical variables. The results showed a significant, positive interaction (p < 0.01) between the two drivers for dissolved P concentration at the field and stream scales, and total P concentration at the field, stream, and lake scales. The synergy in dissolved P was linked to nonlinear dependencies between P stored in manure and the daily runoff to rainfall ratio. The synergistic response of dissolved P loss may have important ecological consequences because dissolved P is highly bioavailable. Overall, the results suggest that high levels of terrestrial P supplied as manure can exacerbate water quality problems in the future as the frequency of high-intensity rainfall events increases with a changing climate. Conversely, lowering terrestrial manure P supply may help improve the resilience of surface water quality to extreme events.

Hydro-Geological Hazard Temporal Evolution during the last seven decades in the Solofrana River Basin—Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, Antonia; Diodato, Nazzareno; Mobilia, Mirka

2017-04-01

Extremes precipitation events are frequently associated to natural disasters falling within the broad spectrum of multiple damaging hydrological events (MDHEs), defined as the simultaneously triggering of different types of phenomena, such as landslides and floods. The power of the rainfall (duration, magnitude, intensity), named storm erosivity, is an important environmental indicator of multiple damaging hydrological phenomena. At the global scale, research interest is actually devoted to the investigation of non-stationary features of extreme events, and consequently of MDHEs, which appear to be increasing in frequency and severity. The Mediterranean basin appears among the most vulnerable regions with an expected increase in occurring damages of about 100% by the end of the century. A high concentration of high magnitude and short duration rainfall events are, in fact, responsible for the largest rainfall erosivity and erosivity density values within Europe. The aim of the reported work is to investigate the relationship between the temporal evolution of severe geomorphological events and combined precipitation indices as a tool to improve understanding the hydro-geological hazard at the catchment scale. The case study is the Solofrana river basin, Southern Italy, which has been seriously and consistently in time affected by natural disasters. Data for about 45 MDH events, spanning on a decadal scale 1951-2014, have been collected and analyzed for this purpose. A preliminary monthly scale analysis of event occurrences highlights a pronounced seasonal characterization of the phenomenon, as about 60% of the total number of reported events take place during the period from September to November. Following, a statistical analysis clearly indicates a significant increase in the frequency of occurrences of MDHEs during the last decades. Such an increase appears to be related to non-stationary features of an average catchment scale rainfall-runoff erosivity index, which combines maximum monthly, maximum daily, and a proxy of maximum hourly precipitation data. The main findings of the reported study relate to the fact that climate evolving tendencies do not appear significant in most of the cases and that MDHEs occurred within the studied catchment also for rainfall events of very moderate intensity and/or severity. The illustrated results seems to indicate that climate variability has not assumed the main role in the large number of damaging event, and that the relative increase hazardous hydro-geological events in the last decade, is instead most likely caused by incorrect urban planning policies.

An Ordinary Gamma-Ray Burst with Extraordinary Consequences

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-10-18

On Aug. 17, the Gamma-ray Burst Monitor on NASA's Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope caught a short burst of gamma rays from the spectacular smashup of two neutron stars, setting off a chain of events that marks the first-ever detection of a cosmic event in gravitational waves and different kinds of light. NASA scientists Colleen Wilson-Hodge and Tyson Littenberg explain what happened and what it means for science and discovery.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for forested habitats in northern Wisconsin.

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe

2012-01-01

We used a risk matrix to assess risk from climate change for multiple forest species by discussing an example that depicts a range of risk for three tree species of northern Wisconsin. Risk is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an event occurring and the consequences or effects of that event. In the context of species habitats, likelihood is related to...

Single-event burnout of n-p-n bipolar-junction transistors in hybrid DC/DC converters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warren, K.; Roth, D.; Kinnison, J.; Pappalardo, R.

2002-12-01

Single-event-induced failure of the Lambda Advanced Analog AMF2805S DC/DC Converter has been traced to burnout of an n-p-n transistor in the MOSFET drive stage. The failures were observed during testing while in inhibit mode only. Modifications to prevent burnout of the drive stage were successfully employed. A discussion of the failure mechanism and consequences for DC/DC converter testing are presented.

Can physiological engineering/programming increase multi-generational thermal tolerance to extreme temperature events?

PubMed

Sorby, Kris L; Green, Mark P; Dempster, Tim D; Jessop, Tim S

2018-05-29

Organisms increasingly encounter higher frequencies of extreme weather events as a consequence of global climate change. Currently, few strategies are available to mitigate climate change effects on animals arising from acute extreme high temperature events. We tested the capacity of physiological engineering to influence the intra- and multi-generational upper thermal tolerance capacity of a model organism Artemia , subjected to extreme high temperatures. Enhancement of specific physiological regulators during development could affect thermal tolerances or life-history attributes affecting subsequent fitness. Using experimental Artemia populations we exposed F0 individuals to one of four treatments; heat hardening (28°C to 36°C, 1°C per 10 minutes), heat hardening plus serotonin (0.056 µg ml -1 ), heat hardening plus methionine (0.79 mg ml -1 ), and a control treatment. Regulator concentrations were based on previous literature. Serotonin may promote thermotolerance, acting upon metabolism and life-history. Methionine acts as a methylation agent across generations. For all groups, measurements were collected for three performance traits of individual thermal tolerance (upper sublethal thermal limit, lethal limit, and dysregulation range) over two generations. Results showed no treatment increased upper thermal limit during acute thermal stress, although serotonin-treated and methionine-treated individuals outperformed controls across multiple thermal performance traits. Additionally, some effects were evident across generations. Together these results suggest phenotypic engineering provides complex outcomes; and if implemented with heat hardening can further influence performance in multiple thermal tolerance traits, within and across generations. Potentially, such techniques could be up-scaled to provide resilience and stability in populations susceptible to extreme temperature events. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Bio- and chemostratigraphy of the Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a within the mid-latitudes of northwest Europe (Germany, Lower Saxony Basin)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heldt, Matthias; Mutterlose, Joerg; Berner, Uli; Erbacher, Jochen

2013-04-01

The Mid-Cretaceous period was characterised by a series of prominent anoxic events, one of these was the late Early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event 1a (OAE 1a). The Fischschiefer horizon is the regional sedimentary expression of this event in a small epicontinental sea in northwest Europe (Germany, Lower Saxony Basin). In the present study, two sediment cores of Lower to Upper Aptian age (Hoheneggelsen KB 9 and 40) from the Brunswick area, north Germany, have been investigated in detail with respect to their lithostratigraphy, geochemistry (CaCO3, TOC), biostratigraphy (coccoliths, nannoliths) and high-resolution chemostratigraphy (^13Ccarb and ^13Corg). Together with separately published new planktonic foraminifer data of the cores it was possible to establish a detailed time frame and to recognise the OAE 1a. The ^13C data enabled us to subdivide the deposits into isotope segments (C2-C7), which are commonly used as stratigraphic markers in coeval sediments around the world. The carbon isotope curves are compared to recently published Aptian curves from other parts of the Lower Saxony Basin, all of which record the prominent carbon isotope anomaly of the OAE 1a. A high-resolution correlation of the typical isotope trends of OAE 1a (segments C3-6) across the Lower Saxony Basin appears difficult due to an early diagenetic overprint of the primary isotope signal. These alterations can be explained by the temporary establishment of euxinic conditions the Lower Saxony Basin during OAE 1a as consequence of an interplay of different factors, such as global warming, restricted palaeogeography, increased fluvial input and intensified stable water stratification, which is supported by several lines of regional evidence.

14 CFR 420.59 - Launch site accident investigation plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... consequences of a launch site accident are contained and minimized; (2) Ensure data and physical evidence are...) Description of the event; (iv) Number of injuries, if any, and general description of types of injuries...

14 CFR 437.75 - Mishap reporting, responding, and investigating.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... value, (vii) A description of any hazardous materials involved in the event, whether on the reusable suborbital rocket or on the ground, (viii) Action taken by any person to contain the consequences of the...

14 CFR 437.75 - Mishap reporting, responding, and investigating.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... value, (vii) A description of any hazardous materials involved in the event, whether on the reusable suborbital rocket or on the ground, (viii) Action taken by any person to contain the consequences of the...

14 CFR 437.75 - Mishap reporting, responding, and investigating.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... value, (vii) A description of any hazardous materials involved in the event, whether on the reusable suborbital rocket or on the ground, (viii) Action taken by any person to contain the consequences of the...

The stressor criterion for posttraumatic stress disorder: Does it matter?

PubMed Central

Roberts, Andrea L.; Dohrenwend, Bruce P.; Aiello, Allison; Wright, Rosalind J.; Maercker, Andreas; Galea, Sandro; Koenen, Karestan C.

2013-01-01

Objective The definition of the stressor criterion for posttraumatic stress disorder (“Criterion A1”) is hotly debated with major revisions being considered for DSM-V. We examine whether symptoms, course, and consequences of PTSD vary predictably with the type of stressful event that precipitates symptoms. Method We used data from the 2009 PTSD diagnostic subsample (N=3,013) of the Nurses Health Study II. We asked respondents about exposure to stressful events qualifying under 1) DSM-III, 2) DSM-IV, or 3) not qualifying under DSM Criterion A1. Respondents selected the event they considered worst and reported subsequent PTSD symptoms. Among participants who met all other DSM-IV PTSD criteria, we compared distress, symptom severity, duration, impairment, receipt of professional help, and nine physical, behavioral, and psychiatric sequelae (e.g. physical functioning, unemployment, depression) by precipitating event group. Various assessment tools were used to determine fulfillment of PTSD Criteria B through F and to assess these 14 outcomes. Results Participants with PTSD from DSM-III events reported on average 1 more symptom (DSM-III mean=11.8 symptoms, DSM-IV=10.7, non-DSM=10.9) and more often reported symptoms lasted one year or longer compared to participants with PTSD from other groups. However, sequelae of PTSD did not vary systematically with precipitating event type. Conclusions Results indicate the stressor criterion as defined by the DSM may not be informative in characterizing PTSD symptoms and sequelae. In the context of ongoing DSM-V revision, these results suggest that Criterion A1 could be expanded in DSM-V without much consequence for our understanding of PTSD phenomenology. Events not considered qualifying stressors under the DSM produced PTSD as consequential as PTSD following DSM-III events, suggesting PTSD may be an aberrantly severe but nonspecific stress response syndrome. PMID:22401487

Dealing with Natural Disasters: Preparedness versus Post-Event Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitar, N.

2015-12-01

Management or mitigation of natural disasters is comprised of two distinct elements: disaster preparedness and disaster response. Fundamentally disasters fall into two categories: 1) those whose timing can be predicted and evaluated in advance, such as hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, or even sea level rise; and 2) those that can be anticipated based on analysis, but their exact timing is unknown, such as earthquakes and landslides. Consequently, the type of response and options available for scientific and engineering consultation are fundamentally different. The common aspects of all natural disasters is that there is evidence of past events either historical or geologic, or both. Thus, given past evidence, scientists and engineers have an opportunity to recommend and guide development and implementation of long term or permanent mitigation measures, such as improving the resiliency of the infrastructure and emergency preparedness. However, the appropriate mitigation measures are very much a function of the type of event. Severe atmospheric events, such as hurricanes, typically can be predicted several days in advance and scientists and engineers have a role in guiding preparation of specific additional, temporary, mitigation measures and selective evacuation, as appropriate. In contrast, while earthquake potential of a given region may be well recognized, the actual timing of the event is an unknown and, consequently, the primary defense is in developing sufficiently resilient infrastructure which can be enhanced with early warning systems. Similarly, the type of damage caused by flooding, e.g. hurricane and tsunami, is significantly different from the type of damage caused by an earthquake in that flooding damage is pervasive affecting large contiguous areas wiping out all infrastructure whereas earthquake or landslide damage tends to be clustered with many elements of infrastructure remaining fully or somewhat operable. This distinction is very important when it comes to the type of technical guidance that is needed following such events. This presentation highlights lessons learned from post-event reconnaissance as a part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Event Reconnaissance (GEER) over the last two decades.

Flood damage: a model for consistent, complete and multipurpose scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menoni, Scira; Molinari, Daniela; Ballio, Francesco; Minucci, Guido; Mejri, Ouejdane; Atun, Funda; Berni, Nicola; Pandolfo, Claudia

2016-12-01

Effective flood risk mitigation requires the impacts of flood events to be much better and more reliably known than is currently the case. Available post-flood damage assessments usually supply only a partial vision of the consequences of the floods as they typically respond to the specific needs of a particular stakeholder. Consequently, they generally focus (i) on particular items at risk, (ii) on a certain time window after the occurrence of the flood, (iii) on a specific scale of analysis or (iv) on the analysis of damage only, without an investigation of damage mechanisms and root causes. This paper responds to the necessity of a more integrated interpretation of flood events as the base to address the variety of needs arising after a disaster. In particular, a model is supplied to develop multipurpose complete event scenarios. The model organizes available information after the event according to five logical axes. This way post-flood damage assessments can be developed that (i) are multisectoral, (ii) consider physical as well as functional and systemic damage, (iii) address the spatial scales that are relevant for the event at stake depending on the type of damage that has to be analyzed, i.e., direct, functional and systemic, (iv) consider the temporal evolution of damage and finally (v) allow damage mechanisms and root causes to be understood. All the above features are key for the multi-usability of resulting flood scenarios. The model allows, on the one hand, the rationalization of efforts currently implemented in ex post damage assessments, also with the objective of better programming financial resources that will be needed for these types of events in the future. On the other hand, integrated interpretations of flood events are fundamental to adapting and optimizing flood mitigation strategies on the basis of thorough forensic investigation of each event, as corroborated by the implementation of the model in a case study.

Event Boundaries in Perception Affect Memory Encoding and Updating

PubMed Central

Swallow, Khena M.; Zacks, Jeffrey M.; Abrams, Richard A.

2010-01-01

Memory for naturalistic events over short delays is important for visual scene processing, reading comprehension, and social interaction. The research presented here examined relations between how an ongoing activity is perceptually segmented into events and how those events are remembered a few seconds later. In several studies participants watched movie clips that presented objects in the context of goal-directed activities. Five seconds after an object was presented, the clip paused for a recognition test. Performance on the recognition test depended on the occurrence of perceptual event boundaries. Objects that were present when an event boundary occurred were better recognized than other objects, suggesting that event boundaries structure the contents of memory. This effect was strongest when an object’s type was tested, but was also observed for objects’ perceptual features. Memory also depended on whether an event boundary occurred between presentation and test; this variable produced complex interactive effects that suggested that the contents of memory are updated at event boundaries. These data indicate that perceptual event boundaries have immediate consequences for what, when, and how easily information can be remembered. PMID:19397382

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Enhancing response coordination through the assessment of response network structural dynamics

PubMed Central

Jalili, Mahdi; Choi, Soo-Mi

2018-01-01

Preparing for intensifying threats of emergencies in unexpected, dangerous, and serious natural or man-made events, and consequent management of the situation, is highly demanding in terms of coordinating the personnel and resources to support human lives and the environment. This necessitates prompt action to manage the uncertainties and risks imposed by such extreme events, which requires collaborative operation among different stakeholders (i.e., the personnel from both the state and local communities). This research aims to find a way to enhance the coordination of multi-organizational response operations. To do so, this manuscript investigates the role of participants in the formed coordination response network and also the emergence and temporal dynamics of the network. By analyzing an inter-personal response coordination operation to an extreme bushfire event, the networks’ and participants’ structural change is evaluated during the evolution of the operation network over four time durations. The results reveal that the coordination response network becomes more decentralized over time due to the high volume of communication required to exchange information. New emerging communication structures often do not fit the developed plans, which stress the need for coordination by feedback in addition to by plan. In addition, we find that the participant’s brokering role in the response operation network identifies a formal and informal coordination role. This is useful for comparison of network structures to examine whether what really happens during response operations complies with the initial policy. PMID:29447192

Enhancing response coordination through the assessment of response network structural dynamics.

PubMed

Abbasi, Alireza; Sadeghi-Niaraki, Abolghasem; Jalili, Mahdi; Choi, Soo-Mi

2018-01-01

Preparing for intensifying threats of emergencies in unexpected, dangerous, and serious natural or man-made events, and consequent management of the situation, is highly demanding in terms of coordinating the personnel and resources to support human lives and the environment. This necessitates prompt action to manage the uncertainties and risks imposed by such extreme events, which requires collaborative operation among different stakeholders (i.e., the personnel from both the state and local communities). This research aims to find a way to enhance the coordination of multi-organizational response operations. To do so, this manuscript investigates the role of participants in the formed coordination response network and also the emergence and temporal dynamics of the network. By analyzing an inter-personal response coordination operation to an extreme bushfire event, the networks' and participants' structural change is evaluated during the evolution of the operation network over four time durations. The results reveal that the coordination response network becomes more decentralized over time due to the high volume of communication required to exchange information. New emerging communication structures often do not fit the developed plans, which stress the need for coordination by feedback in addition to by plan. In addition, we find that the participant's brokering role in the response operation network identifies a formal and informal coordination role. This is useful for comparison of network structures to examine whether what really happens during response operations complies with the initial policy.

Safety design approach for external events in Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yamano, H.; Kubo, S.; Tani, A.

2012-07-01

This paper describes a safety design approach for external events in the design study of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor. An emphasis is introduction of a design extension external condition (DEEC). In addition to seismic design, other external events such as tsunami, strong wind, abnormal temperature, etc. were addressed in this study. From a wide variety of external events consisting of natural hazards and human-induced ones, a screening method was developed in terms of siting, consequence, frequency to select representative events. Design approaches for these events were categorized on the probabilistic, statistical and deterministic basis. External hazard conditions were considered mainlymore » for DEECs. In the probabilistic approach, the DEECs of earthquake, tsunami and strong wind were defined as 1/10 of exceedance probability of the external design bases. The other representative DEECs were also defined based on statistical or deterministic approaches. (authors)« less

Heinrich Events as an integral part of glacial-interglacial climate dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barker, S.; Knorr, G.; Zhang, X.; Gong, X.; Lohmann, G.; Bazin, L.

2017-12-01

Since their discovery in the 1980s Heinrich Events have provided a playground for climate scientists trying to understand the interactions between ice sheets and the ocean. Subsequently it has become clear that these interactions extend to almost all parts of the global climate system, from temperature, winds and rainfall to deep ocean currents and atmospheric CO2. Furthermore it remains unclear as to whether these dramatic events are a cause or consequence (or both) of regional to global perturbations in a range of parameters, including meridional overturning circulation within the Atlantic. Here we will discuss some of these aspects to highlight ongoing and future research related to Heinrich events and abrupt change more generally. We will discuss some of the possible triggers for H-events, including abrupt versus more gradual forcing mechanisms and conversely the potential influence of such events on the wider climate system, including deglacial climate change.

Why Seemingly Trivial Events Sometimes Evoke Strong Emotional Reactions: The Role of Social Exchange Rule Violations

PubMed Central

Leary, Mark R.; Diebels, Kate J.; Jongman-Sereno, Katrina P.; Fernandez, Xuan Duong

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT People sometimes display strong emotional reactions to events that appear disproportionate to the tangible magnitude of the event. Although previous work has addressed the role that perceived disrespect and unfairness have on such reactions, this study examined the role of perceived social exchange rule violations more broadly. Participants (N = 179) rated the effects of another person’s behavior on important personal outcomes, the degree to which the other person had violated fundamental rules of social exchange, and their reactions to the event. Results showed that perceptions of social exchange rule violations accounted for more variance in participants’ reactions than the tangible consequences of the event. The findings support the hypothesis that responses that appear disproportionate to the seriousness of the eliciting event are often fueled by perceived rule violations that may not be obvious to others. PMID:26331429

Measuring Aseismic Slip through Characteristically Repeating Earthquakes at the Mendocino Triple Junction, Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Materna, K.; Taira, T.; Burgmann, R.

2016-12-01

The Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ), at the transition point between the San Andreas fault system, the Mendocino Transform Fault, and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, undergoes rapid tectonic deformation and produces more large (M>6.0) earthquakes than any region in California. Most of the active faults of the triple junction are located offshore, making it difficult to characterize both seismic slip and aseismic creep. In this work, we study aseismic creep rates near the MTJ using characteristically repeating earthquakes (CREs) as indicators of creep rate. CREs are generally interpreted as repeated failures of the same seismic patch within an otherwise creeping fault zone; as a consequence, the magnitude and recurrence time of the CREs can be used to determine a fault's creep rate through empirically calibrated scaling relations. Using seismic data from 2010-2016, we identify CREs as recorded by an array of eight 100-Hz PBO borehole seismometers deployed in the Cape Mendocino area. For each event pair with epicenters less than 30 km apart, we compute the cross-spectral coherence of 20 seconds of data starting one second before the P-wave arrival. We then select pairs with high coherence in an appropriate frequency band, which is determined uniquely for each event pair based on event magnitude, station distance, and signal-to-noise ratio. The most similar events (with median coherence above 0.95 at two or more stations) are selected as CREs and then grouped into CRE families, and each family is used to infer a local creep rate. On the Mendocino Transform Fault, we find relatively high creep rates of >5 cm/year that increase closer to the Gorda Ridge. Closer to shore and to the MTJ itself, we find many families of repeaters on and off the transform fault with highly variable creep rates, indicative of the complex deformation that takes place there.

Physically-based modelling of high magnitude torrent events with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wing-Yuen Chow, Candace; Ramirez, Jorge; Zimmermann, Markus; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

High magnitude torrent events are associated with the rapid propagation of vast quantities of water and available sediment downslope where human settlements may be established. Assessing the vulnerability of built structures to these events is a part of consequence analysis, where hazard intensity is related to the degree of loss sustained. The specific contribution of the presented work describes a procedure simulate these damaging events by applying physically-based modelling and to include uncertainty information about the simulated results. This is a first step in the development of vulnerability curves based on several intensity parameters (i.e. maximum velocity, sediment deposition depth and impact pressure). The investigation process begins with the collection, organization and interpretation of detailed post-event documentation and photograph-based observation data of affected structures in three sites that exemplify the impact of highly destructive mudflows and flood occurrences on settlements in Switzerland. Hazard intensity proxies are then simulated with the physically-based FLO-2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993). Prior to modelling, global sensitivity analysis is conducted to support a better understanding of model behaviour, parameterization and the quantification of uncertainties (Song et al., 2015). The inclusion of information describing the degree of confidence in the simulated results supports the credibility of vulnerability curves developed with the modelled data. First, key parameters are identified and selected based on literature review. Truncated a priori ranges of parameter values were then defined by expert solicitation. Local sensitivity analysis is performed based on manual calibration to provide an understanding of the parameters relevant to the case studies of interest. Finally, automated parameter estimation is performed to comprehensively search for optimal parameter combinations and associated values, which are evaluated using the observed data collected in the first stage of the investigation. O'Brien, J.S., Julien, P.Y., Fullerton, W. T., 1993. Two-dimensional water flood and mudflow simulation. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 119(2): 244-261.
 Song, X., Zhang, J., Zhan, C., Xuan, Y., Ye, M., Xu C., 2015. Global sensitivity analysis in hydrological modeling: Review of concepts, methods, theoretical frameworks, Journal of Hydrology 523: 739-757.

Phenology of seed and leaves rain in response to periodic climatic variability in a seasonal wet tropical forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matteo, D.; Wright, S. J.; Davies, S. J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Wolfe, B.; Detto, M.

2016-12-01

Phenology, by controlling the rhythms of plants, plays a fundamental role in regulating access to resources, ecosystem processes, competition among species, interactions with consumers and feedbacks to the climate. In high biodiverse tropical forests, where phenology of flowering and leafing are complex, an adequate representation of phenology must take into account a given set of climatic, edaphic and biotic factors. Climatic factors are particularly important because plants may use them as cues for timing different phenological phases and be influenced by their intensity. Climatic variability can be periodic, if events occur with regular frequency, or aperiodic. One prominent periodic large-scale pattern that causes unusual weather is ENSO event. In general, Central America tends to be dry and warm during a mature phase of an ENSO event, which usually peaks between October and January with a frequency of 2-3 events per decade. Because in many tropical areas the effect of ENSO is highly prominent, it is plausible that plants have adapted their growth and reproduction mechanisms to synchronize ENSO phases, in a similar way that plants do during the seasonal cycle. We used a long dataset (30+ years) of fruits and leaves rains of tropical trees and lianas to determine ecosystem response and species specific response of these phenological events to local climate variability corresponding to the modes of ENSO. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that phenological responses to ENSO are similar to response to seasonal cycles, i.e., higher litterfall before a warm-dry phase and higher fruiting after such phase, with strong correlation between seeds and leaves. At sub-community level, we evaluated whether evergreen and deciduous, biotic and abiotic dispersers and free and climbing life forms, have the same response to ENSO in terms of leaves and seeds rain. At species level we tested the hypothesis that species with low photosynthetic capacity leaves are more responsive to ENSO in relation to variation in solar radiation. High Amax is usually associated with light-demanding, fast growing, gap species. These species must disperse seeds to ephemeral gaps to germinate successfully. Consequently they strategize to have more even seed fall across years

Prediction and causal reasoning in planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dean, T.; Boddy, M.

1987-01-01

Nonlinear planners are often touted as having an efficiency advantage over linear planners. The reason usually given is that nonlinear planners, unlike their linear counterparts, are not forced to make arbitrary commitments to the order in which actions are to be performed. This ability to delay commitment enables nonlinear planners to solve certain problems with far less effort than would be required of linear planners. Here, it is argued that this advantage is bought with a significant reduction in the ability of a nonlinear planner to accurately predict the consequences of actions. Unfortunately, the general problem of predicting the consequences of a partially ordered set of actions is intractable. In gaining the predictive power of linear planners, nonlinear planners sacrifice their efficiency advantage. There are, however, other advantages to nonlinear planning (e.g., the ability to reason about partial orders and incomplete information) that make it well worth the effort needed to extend nonlinear methods. A framework is supplied for causal inference that supports reasoning about partially ordered events and actions whose effects depend upon the context in which they are executed. As an alternative to a complete but potentially exponential-time algorithm, researchers provide a provably sound polynomial-time algorithm for predicting the consequences of partially ordered events.

Lead mobilization during tectonic reactivation of the western Baltic Shield

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Romer, R.L.; Wright, J.E.

Lead isotope data from sulfide deposits of the western part of the Baltic Shield define mixing lines in the [sup 206]Pb/[sup 204]Pb-[sup 207]Pb/[sup 204]Pb diagram. Lead from two types of sulfide deposits have been investigated: (1) Exhalative and volcanogenic deposits that are syngenetic with their host rocks; and (2) vein deposits. The syngenetic deposits locally show a very wide range of lead isotopic compositions that reflect a variable addition of highly radiogenic lead, while the vein deposits, although they have radiogenic lead isotopic compositions, exhibit only limited isotopic variations. In different provinces of the shield, both types of deposits fallmore » on the same lead mixing array. The slope of the lead mixing lines varies as a function of the age of basement rocks and the age of the tectonic event which produced the lead mobilization and therefore relates the source rock age with the age of lead mobilization. Calculated mixing ages fall into several short time periods that correspond either to orogenic events or to major phases of continental rifting. The orogenic events are the ca 360--430 Ma Caledonian, ca 900--1100 Ma Sveconorwegian, and the ca 1800--1900 Ma Svecofennian orogenic cycles. The rifting events correspond to the formation of the ca 280 Ma Oslo rift and the Ordovician (ca 450 Ma) graben system in the area of the present Gulf of Bothnia. Each mixing age indicates that lead was mobilized, probably as a consequence of mild thermal disturbances, and that the crust was permeable to lead migration. The data show that the geographic distribution of sulfide deposits with highly radiogenic lead isotopic compositions coincides with old graben systems, orogenic belts, and orogenic forelands on the Baltic Shield. The ages of vein deposits and their geographic distribution demonstrate multiple tectonic reactivation of the interior of the Baltic Shield in response to orogenic events at its margin. 68 refs., 6 refs., 4 tabs.« less

Reducing the risk of public health emergencies for the world’s largest mass gathering

PubMed Central

Sun, Xiaodong; Keim, Mark; He, Yongchao; Mahany, Mollie; Yuan, Zheng'an

2013-01-01

Mass Gatherings and Public Health   Mass gatherings are highly visible events with the potential for serious health and political consequences if not managed carefully and effectively.1-4 Mass gatherings have been reported to have significant impact upon public health systems throughout the world.5-10 International mass gathering events, such as those associated with the Olympic Games, often carry high political significance and have a historical risk for terrorist attacks.2 Mass gatherings ranging from the subnational level to international the level have also been associated with outbreaks and subsequent spread of communicable diseases. These events have included outbreaks of foodborne shigellosis occurring at an outdoor music festival in the United States.5,6 The annual Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia has been plagued by public health threats such as fires, stampedes and an outbreak of meningitis.7,9 Influenza outbreaks were also reported during the 2008 World Youth Day mass gathering in Australia.10 Local, provincial and national public health and medical agencies are frequently involved before, during and after a major event. Therefore, disaster risk reduction is a key element for the effective management of mass gatherings. Disaster Risk Reduction Throughout the world, the overall approach to emergencies and disasters has recently shifted from post-impact activities (i.e., ad hoc relief and reconstruction) to a more systematic and comprehensive process of risk management.11 Disaster risk management includes pre-impact disaster risk reduction (i.e., prevention, preparedness and mitigation) as well as post-impact response and recovery).12 While planners may not always have the ability to prevent health hazards from occurring at mass gathering events, the health sector can play an important role in preventing the public health impact of such hazards. This manuscript describes a comprehensive approach for disaster risk reduction as implemented by those entities responsible for health security associated with the 2010 Shanghai World Exposition (Shanghai Expo). PMID:28228984

Boosted dark matter and its implications for the features in IceCube HESE data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bhattacharya, Atri; Gandhi, Raj; Gupta, Aritra

2017-05-01

We study the implications of the premise that any new, relativistic, highly energetic neutral particle that interacts with quarks and gluons would create cascade-like events in the IceCube (IC) detector. Such events would be observationally indistinguishable from neutral current deep-inelastic (DIS) scattering events due to neutrinos. Consequently, one reason for deviations, breaks or excesses in the expected astrophysical power-law neutrino spectrum could be the flux of such a particle. Motivated by features in the recent 1347-day IceCube high energy starting event (HESE) data, we focus on particular boosted dark matter (χ) related realizations of this premise. Here, χ is assumedmore » to be much lighter than, and the result of, the slow decay of a massive scalar (φ ) which constitutes a major fraction of the Universe's dark matter (DM) . We show that this hypothesis, coupled with a standard power-law astrophysical neutrino flux is capable of providing very good fits to the present data, along with a possible explanation of other features in the HESE sample. These features include a) the paucity of events beyond ∼ 2 PeV b) a spectral feature resembling a dip or a spectral change in the 400 TeV–1 PeV region and c) an excess in the 50−100 TeV region. We consider two different boosted DM scenarios, and determine the allowed mass ranges and couplings for four different types of mediators (scalar, pseudoscalar, vector and axial-vector) which could connect the standard and dark sectors.We consider constraints from gamma-ray observations and collider searches. We find that the gamma-ray observations provide the most restrictive constraints, disfavouring the 1σ allowed parameter space from IC fits, while still being consistent with the 3σ allowed region. We also test our proposal and its implications against the (statistically independent) sample of six year through-going muon track data recently released by IceCube.« less